Pistons Fire Curry!

In the smartest move that Joe Dumars has made in several years, bumbling head coach Michael Curry was fired today after one hugely dissappointing 39-43 season. It seemed that Joe and Curry have been the closest of friends since back to their teammate days, and Dumars seemed elated to fire Flip Saunders and make his idiotic friend the head coach. When it happened, we all knew it was a mistake, but we tried to give the guy a chance. We tried, but he gave us reason after reason to call for his head. Clashing with players, failing to motivate or inspire or draw up a single decent play, forgetting about key bench players for long stretches and having no semblance of a consistent rotation are just a few of Curry's downfalls.

The mis-management with which Curry (and Dumars, for that matter) handled the Hamilton-Iverson saga was downright pathetic. I understand you're dealing with the egos of NBA superstars, but really, you couldn't get them to cooperate and focus on the good of the team? Isn't that your job? The truth is, Curry wasn't good at his job, and in our cutthroat economic climate, someone as bad at what they do as he is shouldn't continue to be employed. At least not as an NBA coach. Maybe he can be a parking attendant for some college basketball games or something. He could probably manage that.

I haven't done much research into the possible replacements for Curry, or the reasons why he was fired, but I have plenty of speculation as to both.

Firstly, rumors of possible head coaches for the 2009 Pistons are already flying around like crazy. Avery Johnson, Doug Collins, and Bill Laimbeer head the list, and I've also heard Jeff VanGundy, John Kuester, and others. As great as it would be to see Lambo sitting in the head coach's chair in the Palace, and yes, it would be monumentaly awesome, I don't see him being a great NBA coach. He is more of the Disney movie bad-guy coach, who commands his players to intentionally injure the other team's star player. (Adam Banks, anyone?) The early reports are already saying that Laimbeer will not be coaching the Pistons, but do you really trust what the reports say? The same reports that said Favre was retired and Sosa wasn't on steroids ...

John Kuester was a big piece of Larry Brown's coaching staff and is known as something of an offensive-minded genius, which bodes well for the Pistons. However, I don't like the idea of giving another unheard-of guy the chance to be an NBA coach for the first time. Also, I don't see VanGundy as a very realistic option, more of a pipe dream.

Avery Johnson and Doug Collins seem the two most likely and desirable options. Collins already coached the Pistons once before and wasn't great, but he didn't have much to work with. Johnson is a proven winner and inspires discipline and structure and defense. An inconsistent bunch of whiners (like the Pistons) could do well with a coach like that, or they could utterly revolt and become even worse. Collins has been commentating games and turning down coaching jobs for years, but the challenge of coming back to Detroit might be enough to lure him out of broadcasting. I'd love to see either guy on the bench for the Pistons. A proven winner, an experienced coach, and a motivator: what more could we ask for. If I had to give the edge to one guy over the other, I'd say Avery, for three reasons: 1) He always looks cool, 2) His squeaky-high voice makes me laugh, and 3) His track-record of mentoring point guards and making them into unselfish stars. I can't think of a more perfect coach for Stuckey.

Now, the other question I have been pondering for the past nine hours since I found out about the firing is: Why? Not that I disagree at all with the decision, but it's still very surprising. Dumars and Curry are, like, totally BFFs. Remember last year when Dumars said that since he became President of Operations, no Pistons coach had seen eye-to-eye with him as well as Curry. That quote came in the middle of a losing streak and an under-.500 record if my memory serves me correctly. Dumars was blinded by some kind of dumb love for one painful year, but thank God he managed to snap out of the trance and fire Curry just in time for free agency.

So was it a coincidence that Curry's termination came less than 24 hours from the dawn of the NBA Free Agency? Some reports say no, others say yes. I have to say no, not a coincidence. Probably one of the primary reasons. (Although, the free agent we've heard the most about all spring, Carlos Boozer, just opted to stay with the Jazz earlier today.) Apparently, someone other than Boozer has been at the top of the Pistons wish-list, and when Boozer learned of this he decided he would rather (for financial reasons, I'm sure) stay with Utah. Who could this mystery free agent be, that the Pistons have been coveting even more than Boozer? I have two guesses: Ben Gordon, or Hedo Turkolu. (P.S. - I don't particularly want either guy.)

Curry's legacy with the Pistons will be a one-year dud who couldn't get along with his players. He always seemed a little angry and bitter in his dealings with the media, as if to convey that we couldn't possibly understand how brilliant he is and how difficult it is to be an NBA coach. Well Mr. Curry, I've seen plenty of other coaches do it, and actually win more than half their games, with loads less talent that you had to work with. About halfway through last season, Curry developed a random and psychotic fatuation with Arron Afflalo, a mediocre role-player at best. He gave Afflalo waaaay too many minutes, assigned him the defensive role of guarding the other team's best player, and most egregious of all, allowed him to shoot technical free throws!! Even when Rip, Tayshaun, Iverson, and/or Stuckey were on the floor! It was so strange and discomforting to watch the googly eyes and mesmerized smile that Curry always had on his face when he watched Afflalo play. Curry tried to convince us that Arron was "a lockdown defender," which we could tell by watching the games he clearly was not. He used terms like "efficient," "hard-working," and "unselfish" to describe Afflalo's playing style. Those are code-words for: not very good.

Here's the point of the Afflalo tangent: I think, and always thought last year, that Curry was living vicariously through our second-string 2 guard. As a player, Curry was never exceptional. Actually, he was never even good. He was okay. Solid at defense, but a liability on offense. It seemed that he had a hard time admitting what his strengths and weaknesses were as a player, and wanted to be remembered as a legend. He wasn't. He was a role-player during the wretched Teal Jersey days. Seeing a player who was so similar to him in Afflalo, Curry seemed obsessed with showcasing his talents and always talking positively about him. It was way too common for Curry to be heard tirading against the problems of Hamilton and Prince's play, but never, ever, did he say a bad word about Arron Afflalo. Why? Because that would be like bad-talking himself.

Curry was all about his image. He tried so hard to create the cool, calm and confident swagger that great coaches posses, but it was always obvious he was faking it. He wasn't calm. He was sweating through his suitcoat. He certainly wasn't cool; he never said anything funny or witty or even smart in one of his press conferences. He was a kid playing coach, in way over his head but pretending he knew what he was doing. He got caught. Now we can send him away and let a real coach do the job.



Now for a few quick words about free agency:

With the news that Boozer (and fellow Jazz player Mehmet Okur) will be staying in Utah, Detroit's options in the free agency suddenly seem dwindled. One thing's for sure: after trading Chauncey Billups for Allen "Cap Space" Iverson, and not making any effort to re-sign Rasheed Wallace, and recently trading Amir Johnson's 3+ million dollar contract for more cap space, the Pistons have more money to spend this offseason than any other team. Only two teams are close, the Grizzlies and the Thunder, and few free agents want to play for them. We have tons of money to spend, and better start spending it unless we want the Chauncey trade to be all for naught.

If Dumars fails to pull the trigger on a big contract this summer, don't freak out; it only means he's saving the heaps of cap room for the summer of 2010, when LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Nash, and loads of other stud players will be enter free agency. As much as it would suck to suffer through the 2009 season with our current lackluster roster, it would be worth it we end up investing 25 or 30 million into Chris Bosh, as opposed to say, Charlie Villanueva or Chris Kaman, if we act too rashly this summer.

A starting group of Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Maxiell and Kwame Brown looks like maybe a 30 win team. Let's hope Dumars does something, at least one intelligent move this offseason, otherwise we're in for a dismal 2009. Well, I guess he's already done at least one smart thing. He fired Michael Curry.

Fantasy Football: Running Backs

Tier One: Adrian Peterson

By far the best running back; so far ahead that he gets his own tier. My projections, whether Favre becomes the Vikes quarterback or not, are 1900 yards and 23 TDs.

1. Adrian Peterson

Tier Two: Probably Huge Studs

The question with these guys is: are they worth a top three pick? Or do you grab Brady or Brees instead? Turner is a perfect combo of speed and strength on one of the NFL’s best offenses; MJD is a TD machine and a great receiver, and now for the first time in his career will be rushing the ball around 20 times a game.

2. Michael Turner
3. Maurice Jones-Drew

Tier Three: Reliable Veterans

Rounding out the top ten is many familiar first-round denizens. The tricky part was ordering them. I feel I did a pretty good job.

4. Brian Westbrook
5. Steven Jackson
6. LaDanian Tomlinson
7. Clinton Portis
8. Marion Barber
9. Frank Gore
10. Joseph Addai

Tier Four: Last Year’s Rookies

Yeah, no kidding, I’m putting all four of these guys in a row. Forte and Johnson can’t reproduce last year’s stats, Slaton will be around the same and Smith is going to improve. The wildcard is Forte, who will be in the top ten if Cutler plays smart and doesn’t turn the ball over too much.

11. Matt Forte
12. Steve Slaton
13. Chris Johnson
14. Kevin Smith

Tier Five: Steady but not spectacular

Guys who run behind good offensive lines and should get the goal line carries; 10 touchdowns each but not too many yards.

14. Brandon Jacobs
15. Thomas Jones
16. Ronnie Brown
17. Ryan Grant

Tier Six: Too talented not to excel

Smallish guys who are in RBBC situations and won’t score tons of touchdowns, but have the speed and/or pass catching ability to gain loads of yardage. (You might not think Parker’s in an RBBC, but wait til you see Rashard Mendenhall tear it up!)

18. Willie Parker
19. Reggie Bush
20. DeAngelo Williams
21. Darren McFadden

Tier Seven: The Suspended

A concealed pistol is all that keeps this moron from being top-ten material. After week three, he’ll be released full-steam on a great Buffalo offense and score lots of TDs. He could pull a Brandon Marshall and get the suspension reduced; watch out for that.

22. Marshawn Lynch

Tier Eight: The First Round of Sleepers

Not a sure thing to be the feature back, but they have a good shot, and if they win the job they could produce first-round stats.

22. Knowshon Moreno
23. Derrick Ward

Tier Nine: Senior Citizens

They used to lead the NFL in rushing; now they are old and fighting for their jobs.

25. Jamal Lewis
26. Larry Johnson

Tier Ten: Vice Presidents

Just like Joe Biden is a heartbeat away from the Presidency, these guys are a torn ACL away from 1,000 yard seasons and 10 TDs. Or more.

25. Pierre Thomas
26. Ahmad Bradshaw
27. Chester Taylor
28. Jonathon Stewart
29. Ricky Williams
30. Darren Sproles

Tier Eleven: The Starters who Suck

They’ll give you a consistent 15 carries, 65 yards and .25 touchdowns a week. (Yes, I am extremely bitter that I drafted Julius Jones in the first round three years ago.)

31. Julius Jones
32. Earnest Graham
33. a. Cedric Benson
b. Kenny Watson

Tier Twelve: Touchdown Vultures

Vultures who score touchdowns. Asterisk on Hightower, who may or may not be the feature back in Arizona. I’m leaning towards a big-time RBBC situation, but keep an eye out.

34. LenDale White
35. Tim Hightower
36. LeRon McClain

Tier Thirteen: Third Down Vultures

A couple fellas who make their living on third-downs and big passes. Basically Diet Reggie Bush.

37. Jerious Norwood
38. Leon Washington
39. Felix Jones

Tier Fourteen: Tylenol PM

Very sleepy sleepers.

40. Chris Wells
41. Ray Rice
42. Brandon Jackson
43. Fred Jackson
44. Rashard Mendenhall

Tier Fifteen: Rumplestilskin

The Sleepiest of Sleepers. As always, there are a ton of these guys. The key is to rank them correctly, because at most you’re drafting one or two of them. I’m only listing these four, for now:

41. Jamaal Charles
42. Shonn Greene
43. LeSean McCoy
44. Javon Ringer
45. – 96. Every other running back in the NFL

Tier Sixteen: Death by RBBC

I would trust Lord Voldemort to babysit my Muggle child before I would trust any RB on the Patriots to be on my fantasy team.

97. Fred Taylor
98. Lawerence Maroney
99. Sammy Morris
100. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
101. Kevin Faulk
102. Kyle Eckel
103. ANYONE on the Patriots

Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks

Part One of my fantasy preview. I actually just wrote this over the past half-hour but I've been giving it a good amount of thought. I think it's actually quite brilliant.




With the quarterback position, I find it useful to break it down into tiers. Tiers that are based on not only the player’s production, but their consistency and the level of risk. Then I can place clumps of skill position players (RB, WR, TE) in between the tiers. The first tier is obvious.

Tier One: Franchise Studs

You can count on all three of these guys, and only these three guys, for amazing stats all season long and consistent, injury-free production from week one to sixteen.

1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning

Tier Two: Small risk, huge reward

Two guys who I think could lead the NFL is passing yards if a few breaks go their way, but could potentially have mediocre seasons. I trust both of them, but not a tier-one level of trust.

4. Kurt Warner
5. Donovan McNabb

Tier Three: The Letter ‘R’

I didn’t do this to be cute; it just happened this way. The next four quarterbacks on my ranking all begin with the letter R. I almost included Romo but I didn’t want to appear desperate. These guys will produce great, but not record-breaking stats and should be very consistent. Each is an excellent fantasy starter.

6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Phillip Rivers
8. Matt Ryan
9. Ben Roethlisberger

Tier Four: Now it starts to get risky

Guys with more risk than potential reward. They could be very serviceable most weeks and consistently above average, but don’t count on them to carry your season.

10. Carson Palmer
11. Eli Manning
12. Tony Romo
13. Matt Schaub
14. Jason Campbell
15. David Garrard

Tier Five: My favorite sleepers

Guys that have big-time potential and low expectations. They should be available late in any draft, if they are even picked at all.

16. Matt Cassel
17. Trent Edwards
18. Shaun Hill
19. Kyle Orton

Tier Six: Overrated but not terrible

Put it this way: I won’t be drafting any of these guys. Either they give you big yards and loads of turnovers (20, 21), or small yards and few touchdowns (22, 23).

20. Jay Cutler
21. Brett Favre
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Matt Hasslebeck

Tier Seven: Hope you enjoyed your success last year because it’s not happening again

Self explanatory.

24. Chad Pennington
25. Kerry Collins
26. Joe Flacco

Tier Eight: Giant risk, but definitely worth-it if it works out

They might not even play at all. If they do, they will probably be terrible. But there’s a small, Matt-Ryan of a chance that they produce beyond your wildest dreams.

27. Brady Quinn
28. Mark Sanchez
29. Matt Stafford
30. JaMarcus Russell

Tier Nine: If you want negative fantasy points.

Guys I would not draft under any circumstance.

31. Marc Bulger
32. Whoever plays QB for Tampa Bay


Much more to come later, this is just a small sample.

AFC Preview

Recently, I wrote a ten-page comprehensive 2009 preview of the NFC, breaking down each division and each team. I posted it on this-here blog and got at least one raving review (thanks Crazy Keith!), which was good enough to convince me to write a similar preview of the AFC. This one may not be as long or as specific and didn't take nearly as long to write, and it may be subject to more biased opinions (i.e. I hate Pittsburgh, I love New England). But the AFC as a whole is much less interesting than the NFC; there is less parity. At the top, the AFC is stronger than the NFC, and the road to the Super Bowl is much more difficult; but the NFC has more quality teams, and more depth.

All four AFC Divisions have been dominated by one particular team in the past decade or so. Take a look at the recent history: New England has won six out of the last seven division titles; San Diego, four of the last five; Indy, five of six; and Pittsburgh, five of the last eight. Since none of these four teams have done anything drastic this offseason (if anything, they have all improved), it would be silly to not pick them all as playoff teams yet again. That leaves the rest of the AFC, 12 teams, battling for two wildcard bids. Throw out Cleveland, Cincinnati and Oakland and you have nine teams fighting for two spots, and hoping for some breaks along the way. (For example, Brady’s and Merriman’s injuries last season).

It’s a tricky conference to predict. Teams seem to rise and fall more quickly than anyone can expect. A few years ago the Bengals went 12-4 or something… last year’s Titans went 13-3 … But the less talented teams always fall back down where they belong and leave the race to the Super Bowl to a battle between two livings legends: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, with the Steelers and Chargers usually in the mix. We’ll begin with what I call the Tecmo Bowl division, the AFC East.

The AFC East is the most complete division from top to bottom in the AFC; in fact, it might be the only division where all four teams have serious playoff potential. Last year the Dolphins won it, even though they went 1-15 the year before. (What a difference Bill Parcells made). The Patriots won it the five previous seasons and finished 11-5 even without Tom Brady last year. The Jets went 9-7 and the Bills went 7-9, although they started out 5-1. But let's not kid ourselves. The Patriots are winning the East in 2009. Lock it up, it's over. There's all this trash-talk going back and forth between Jets coach Rex Ryan (who?) and Dolphins linebacker Channing Crowder (WHO??) about who's going to win the AFC East this year. It's laughable. And I'm sure Bellichek and Brady have to laugh a little bit when they watch film and know beyond all doubt that they're winning at least 13 games this year.

The only serious question in the East is who finishes second? And do they have a good chance at one of the wild cards? I believe the answer to the second question is yes, and to the first question, I think it's the Bills. Yes, the Bills.

But let's start with New England. How can I be so sure that they win their division (and in fact they will win the AFC), with Brady coming off of massive knee surgery and former offensive coach Josh McDaniels leaving and going to Denver? Shouldn't I be worried about their aged defense and that the Giants exposed how to stop their mighty offense in Super Bowl XLIII? The truth is, I'm not worried about any of these things, and the 2009 Patriots are a team of destiny in my mind.

Consider this: As a starter in regular season games, Tom Brady is 87-24, a 79% winning percentage. That means over the course of his career, he AVERAGES eights wins out of every ten games! That's incredible! There isn't a quarterback in NFL History who can boast a statistic anything close to that. (By the way, Tom is 14-3 in the playoffs, a remarkable 83%, and I don't even have to do any statistical research to tell you that that is the best playoff winning percentage any QB has ever had. Watch him go 3-0 in this years playoffs and inflate that already ridiculous playoff win percentage all the way up to 85%.) According to my calculations, 79% means he should win 12.6 games a season. But keep in mind, 2002 Tom Brady was throwing the ball to Troy Brown and David Givens; 2009 Tom Brady will be throwing the ball to Randy Moss (the best vertical threat in the NFL, other than Fitzgerald and Calvin), Wes Welker (THE best slot receiver in the NFL) and Joey Galloway (who is faster, smarter and less-in-jail than former #3 receiver Donte Stallworth). Brady's offensive line is the most solid in the NFL and works together like one giant ten-armed, 2,000 pound player; their O-line doesn't have any "big name" guys on it, but that's exactly the way New England wants it to be. Remember the 2007 season, when the Patriots would punt one or two times A MONTH? That was the last time Tom Brady played a healthy season. Remember when they shattered offensive records and went 16-0? Maybe it won't be that magical of a season in 2009, but that's the standard they will be striving for. 12.6 games is the least they will win. 13, 14, maybe 15. And I wouldn't rule out 16-0. Really. No coach accepts losing worse than Bill Belichick. No quarterbacks hates losing more than Tom Brady. He is a legend in the making. How he comes back from this surgery will be how he is judged in NFL history. I'm sure he will make it a season to remember.

And as good as their offense is, their defense isn't much worse. Seymour, Wilfork and Warren might be the best defensive line in the NFL. Wilfork is certainly a top five defensive tackle. Adalius Thomas, Jerod Mayo, Tully Banta-Cain and Teddy Bruschi are four extremely productive linebackers, plus Pierre Woods and rookie Tyrone McKenzie give them excellent LB depth and fit their 3-4 scheme well. Belichick knows how to run the 3-4 better than anyone, and that's why he pursued Thomas, the perfect 3-4 outside LB, and drafted Mayo, the ideal inside guy. Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden are the new pair cornerbacks for the Pats, and Brandon Merriweather is a stud at free safety. As for the rest of the secondary, SS Rodney Harrison retired and CB Ellis Hobbs went to the Eagles; but Belichick found their replacements deep in the NFL draft with Patrick Chung and Darius Butler, respectively, two rookies who will probably start right away. That's one of the many things that makes Bill Belichick the best coach in the NFL. The most hated, maybe. But definitely the best. And any team that has both the best QB and the best coach in the league has a deadly combination. Tony Dungy/Manning gave the Patriots a good rival. Now who is the Colts coach? No really, who is it? I have no idea. I have to look it up a second ... Jim Caldwell?? Who the heck is Jim Caldwell!?

Just for the record, I'm not only prognosticating that the Patriots will win the AFC East, but somewhere between 13 and 15 wins should give them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as well. And this time, no lucky helmet catch by David Tyree will keep Brady from tying Joe Montana and getting his fourth Super Bowl ring.

(Note: I know Terry Bradshaw also has four Super Bowl rings, but I don't count him in the discussion because those rings were won by the Steelers defense, not by Bradshaw.)

Before I talk about the 2009 Buffalo Bills, I’d like to speak briefly about the 1989 Buffalo Bills. In the NES game Super Tecmo Bowl, my brother always got to be the Lions, leaving me to choose between Buffalo, Houston (the Oilers), and the Raiders. I usually played as Buffalo. Offensively, Jim Kelly (known as QB Bills for some reason, even though all the other players in the game had names) led a power-house offense of Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, James Lofton, Don Beebe, and Pete Metzelaars. Man, what a team. Andre Reed always came up with the ball on those animations where the receiver and the defender shot up into space and fought for the ball. And then on defense, I alternated between sack-master Bruce Smith and chase-and-tackler Cornelius Bennett; Ray Bentley and Kirby Jackson were big-time playmakers as well. But man I loved playing as Bruce Smith in that game. As much as I love and respect Reggie White, I must say that there never was and never will be another defensive end like Bruce Smith. It’s a shame the Bills of the late-80s, early-90s never won a title. They deserved one. They were awesome.

Anyway, back to the present day …
Last year, in 2008, the Bills started out promisingly and had everyone talking about the playoffs. (Jim Mora reference anyone?) Then faded fast and finished below .500. Their defense is full of excellent players, but on offense they just couldn't get it done with the core of Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, and Lee Evans. A pretty good core, but not a great core. Not really a playoff core. But then they went and did something that most teams wouldn't dare to do. Something so egregious that it could tear their entire team to shreds. They added Terrell Owens.

Owens is the least-liked player in the NFL, but also one of the most talented. He is hated by his teammates even more than by his opponents, but he hates all of them equally. He talks trash and usually backs it up. He is so full of himself that he is about to explode. He's one of the NFL most dangerous playmakers; he's one of the world biggest idiots. And now, he is a Buffalo Bill.

Signing TO is the ultimate in risk-reward. The Bills were smart to sign him to a one-year contract, and the likelihood of Owens being a Bill for more than one year isn't great. Everywhere he has gone in his career, he has left a villian. He makes enemies with his coaches and quarterbacks, and Trent Edwards should be very afraid right now. If he overthrows TO more than once, he will be called out in public. If he turns the ball over in the fourth quarter, five minutes later TO will be twittering about how hard it is "having a piece of shit as a quarterback." His words, not mine.

Really, the only way the TO experiment works is if Edwards has a near flawless year. Fortunately for the Bills, I happen to believe that that could happen. I think he can exceed expectations in a big way. Lee Evans might now be the best #2 receiver in the NFL, assuming Boldin doesn't play, and he can move in and out of the slot because of his speed and shiftiness. Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish and Tall James Hardy give Edwards three other decent options, and the Bills running game is to be reckoned with as well. Marshawn Lynch, who is suspended for the first three games, is a fast and powerful back, but I expect the Bills to split carries more evenly this year between Lynch and Fred Jackson. In fact they might even emerge into one of the league's best 1-2 punches if used wisely. Jackson is a real good player.

I love the Bills defense this year. I really love it. I loved it last year, and it didn't let me down. This year I think it will be even better. They have four stud players who are all AFC Pro Bowl material: DE Aaron Schobel, DT Marcus Stroud, CB Terrence McGee, and my personal favorite, MLB Paul Posluszny. When Posluszny was drafted out of Penn State I had very high hopes, and injury kept him from doing anything. Last year in his first NFL action, Paul racked up over 100 tackles, thanks to his natural talent, and thanks in part to an awesome D-Line in front of him. This year Posluszny is one of my favorite picks for "Guy who comes out of no where to become a huge stud." Stroud is huge (literally and figuratively) when it comes to stoping the run, and that allows the rest of the defense the freedom to roam the field. Good things happen when you have a DT like Marcus Stroud. Also they drafted Aaron Maybin from Penn State with the eleventh overall pick and should plug him in at defensive end right away, making their defensive line even better. Maybin and Schobel might become the best pair of pass rushers in the NFL in a couple years.

I really could see the Bills winning 10 games this year. Maybe 11. But again, I must reiterate, it all hinges on Trent Edwards. He might be more important to his team's chances of success than any quarterback, simply because he has a poisonous rattlesnake at wide receiver just waiting for a chance to destroy him. If Edwards stinks, the Bills stink big time. One thing’s for sure: these Bills can’t compare to the 1989 edition.

The J-E-T-S Jets have 7-9 written all over them. They're too good to lose more than that, but not good enough to win more than that. What I mean is that they have stud players all over the field (Alan Faneca - LG, D'Brickashaw Ferguson - LT, Thomas Jones - RB; Kris Jenkins - NT, David Harris - ILB, Darelle Revis - CB) who will ensure that they don't get blown out too many times. Faneca and Revis are top five players in the NFL at their positions; Harris is one of the league's best tackling linebackers and Jenkins is one of the best run-stoppers. Jones had an awesome 2008 statistically speaking, thanks largely to Faneca and Ferguson, and also stud fullback Tony Richardson. I wouldn't doubt that he has another 1,500 yards and 15 TDs this year. But I still don’t see the Jets finishing with a winning record.

The reasons I only peg the Jets as a seven win team are twofold: coaching, and quarterback play. Mark Sanchez might be the future franchise quarterback, but for now, he's only a rookie. Under the pressure of the New York media, you can't expect him not to choke a few games his rookie season and be thankful just to get out alive. Losing Coles and having only Cotchery as a reliable wide receiver doesn't help Sanchez. (Although I wouldn't be surprised to see Dustin Keller evolve into one of the NFL's best tight ends.) My real problem with the Jets is Rex Ryan. The guy strikes me as a grade-A idiot. Add it all together, you have Idiot Coach + Rookie QB + a few stud players + difficult division = 7-9 season.

I also think the Dolphins have the makings of a 7-9 team, but for completely different reasons. 7-9 is the most deceiving record; some teams stink but end up 7-9, and others play their very best every week and go 7-9. You can underachieve or overachieve, and finish with the same record. I think the Jets underachieve their way to 7-9, but for the Dolphins, I think they play their assess off week after week and finish with the same record. They just aren't as talented a team.

The Dolphins making the playoffs last year had more to do with Brady getting injured than their own talent. Give them credit for beating out the Jets and Bills, and for finishing with nine wins in their last ten games, but this year it's just not going to happen again. They lack a passing game and a pass rush, the two key ingredients in today's NFL. They lack experience and leadership and a great coach. They have noodle-arm Chad Pennington at quarterback and not many offensive options to work with. They use the tricky Wildcat Formation, but the odds of them surprising everyone again and running it to brilliant success are slim to none. Offensively, they have one, and only one, very huge A+ going for them, and that is second-year left tackle Jake Long.

J-Lo is 6'7'', 310 pounds and fast. He's bigger, stronger and better than anyone he lines up against. His technique and positioning are flawless. He can take two guys at a time. He is fast enough to pull and lead block. If you need one or two yards, just run behind Jake Long and you can forget about it. Your quarterback can hang out in the pocket and relax, completely free from worry about who is coming from his blind side. He doesn't allow sacks. In my opinion, and this is just my opinion, Jake Long is the best offensive lineman in the NFL, especially if you factor in his age (24). He's the perfect piece to build a team around and the very reason the Dolphins don't have to worry about another 1-15 season. People who were shocked by the Dolphins turnaround last year should have seen it coming; when they made Long their left tackle they saved both Ronnie Brown and Chad Pennington's shaky careers and gave the offense a chance to move the ball on every possession, something they lacked in 2007. Left tackle is the second most important position in football -quarterback being the first, of course - and the Fins have the best one.

On defense, the Dolphins are another 3-4 team. In fact, every team in the AFC East runs the 3-4 scheme except the Bills. The Dolphins are not as well equipped to run the scheme from a personnel standpoint as their foes, however; Joey Porter is their only notable linebacker, their inside linebackers are too small and trash talk opposing coaches too much (Oh that rascally Crowder guy…), and Jason Ferguson is not a great or a very big nosetackle. Their secondary is pretty good but not great. Their defense could overachieve again and be in the top half of the league, but more likely the lack of talent will catch up with them, and they will have one of the NFL's worst defenses. I hate to say it, but it's just the way it is.

Likelihood of each team winning the AFC East:

NE - 85%
BUF - 8%
MIA - 4%
NYJ - 3%

Not a slam on the other teams, just saying: New England is really, really, really good.

Let's move on next to the stupidest division in football, and let's get it over with fast. The AFC North. The Steelers will win it. It won't be competitive. Baltimore will finish second, only because they are mediocre. Cleveland and Cincinnati will suck. Again. It's the worst division in football, even if the Steelers are one of the best teams. The AFC North is about as interesting as Everybody Loves Raymond re-runs.

If you were to compose an All Star team solely of AFC North players, there might be Steelers at 18 of the 22 starting positions. The only non-Steeler on offense would be Joe Thomas at left guard. There would be no Bengals on the team. None. Two, maybe three Ravens, only on defense. Man, what a stupid division! Further proof why there is no easier job in all of sports than to be a Steelers fan.

That's not to say that the AFC North is completely uninteresting. There are a number of intriguing questions we must ask ourselves, mostly questions that concern the future and not the present of the division. Questions such as:
-Will it be Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson starting at QB for the Browns?
-Is Joe Flacco a one-year wonder or the real thing?
-Is Carson Palmer finally back to his old self?
-Is there anyone more annoying in sports than Chad 'Ochocinco" Johnson?
-How many games will the Ohio teams win combined?
-Will the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL this year?
-Will the Ravens offense score more or less than 200 points this season (12.5 per game)?
-Who will be the main man at RB for Baltimore?
-What about for Cincy?
-Is the Ravens defense good enough to get them back to the playoffs?
-Will the Steelers make it back to the Super Bowl?
-Is it fair that more than one third of Pittsburgh's games are against piece of shit teams?
-Is there a bigger tool in the NFL than Ben Roethlisberger?

We'll have to wait and see to find out the answers to these fascinating questions; but if you, like me, would rather eat a cinder block than watch the AFC North this year, you can just take my word for it and follow along with my answer key:

Brady Quinn; One-year wonder; Yes; No!; 6; Yes; Less; Ray Rice; Kenny Watson; No; No; Nope; Hell no. So there you go.

Each teams chances of winning the AFC North:
PIT - 91%
BAL - 5%
CLE - 2%
CIN - 2%

Pathetic. I hope your proud of yourselves Steeler Nation.

Moving on to the much more riveting AFC South. As always, this is the Colts' division to lose. But they did lose it last year, thanks to a very improbable 13-3 season from Tennessee. But the five consecutive years before that, the Colts won it. And even last year, they finished 12-4. In fact, the Colts have won at least 12 games an amazing six season in a row. Will this year be seven in a row? You bet. It's Peyton Manning's division, and this year he will make sure the Colts win it again. It's still an interesting division, the AFC South, because even though the Colts have the best team, all three of the other teams are talented. Talented enough to earn one of the wildcards. Last year belonged to the Titans. There were years before that were all Jacksonville. Houston has been knocking on the door with what seems like five 8-8 seasons in a row. Who will finish second this year and likely earn a trip to the playoffs? (I say likely because the rest of the AFC isn't deep enough to have a good shot at the other wildcard spots.) It's close between Jacksonville and Houston, and as much as I want to pick Houston on the year that they finally make it, I have to say the Jags are just a better team and Houston will finish right around 8-8 once again.

Starting at the bottom of the division, I need to address the phenomenon of last year's Tennessee Titans. They started out 10-0 and finished 13-3, with a 37-year old quarterback and no receivers, a rookie running back and an overweight running back splitting carries, and one heck of a defense. How on earth did they do it? The strangest aspect of the 2008 NFL season was not the Titans 10-0 start, or the fact that NO ONE saw it coming, but the fact that still NO ONE ACTED SURPRISED. Everyone just played along, like “Oh Kerry Collins and the Titans are 10-0? Of course they are…” I for one thought it was ridiculous and am glad they lost Albert Haynesworth so we don’t have to watch another weird fluke season from them. It wasn't like the rise of a star quarterback or a new coach, it was a couple of gray-haired veterans and a stubborn defense. It was just a total team effort, and they really peaked; unfortunately, they peaked about four months too soon. And they missed their window. This year, they have no chance of repeating their success, and are pretty likely to fall from first to last in the AFC South.

Haynesworth signed a humongous contact with the Redskins and their defensive coordinator is wearing Honolulu Blue for 2009, hopefully leading the Lions to a similar 10-0 start. Tennessee's defense is going to fall to pieces and anybody who doesn't see that coming is blind. And as for their offense, which was already not-so-good, it’s going to be even worse, largely because of a worsened defense. These things go hand in hand; the more time the defense spends on the field, the less chances Chris Johnson has to blaze around the corner for a 65-yard TD sprint. Kerry Collins has a very lousy crop of receivers to throw to, who were led last year by tight end Bo Scaife. Seriously guys? Their big offseason move was to bring in Nate Washington. Come on, it's like they aren't even trying to have an offense. The only drama with Tennessee is whether Vince Young will reclaim his starting job, and either way it's a lose-lose for the Titans. They have all the makings of a 4-12 team, and poor Chris Johnson is going to drop from 1488 yards and 10 TDs to ... I'll say 1150 yards and 5 TDs.

The big debate for me is between Jacksonville and Houston. I believe one of these teams will be in the AFC Playoffs, and the other will not. I think they are very close. In fact I'd like to clump them together and look at them as one entity.

Quarterback: Matt Schaub and David Garrard are two of my favorite young QBs on the rise; I think both could have excellent careers for the next five years at least. Schaub is better though; he's more consistent, and has a better arm.

Running game: Both teams excel here, but Jacksonville excels more. With Fred Taylor out of town, Jones-Drew is poised to have a colossal season - he will be one of the few every-down RBs, who plays on third down, on the goal-line, and catches about 50 or 60 passes. I have him penciled in as my #2 fantasy pick behind Peterson. He's a stud on the goal-line. As for Houston, Steve Slaton was a great rookie last year and should be another every-down back, and a safe late first-round fantasy pick. But he serves more as a decoy to draw attention away from Houston's deadly pass attack.

Passing game: Texans win big. Andre Johnson is a top five WR in the league, and Daniels and Walter are solid. When he plays a 16-game season, Andre is a threat to be the best wide receiver, statistically, no matter who plays quarterback. Jacksonville improved when they picked up Torry Holt; although physically he can't do much anymore, his strengths were always route-running and intelligence, which is what Garrard needs from him. Needless to say, the gameplan of "Let's draft the tallest receivers possible and hope they can catch!" has not worked out too well for the Jags.

Offensive line: Don’t know much about either team, but I would assume Jacksonville’s is better. They give up less sacks it seems and run the ball better. Only a few years ago Houston gave up something like 250 sacks in one season. Poor David Carr …

Defensive line: Houston has Mario Williams, who has 26 sacks the past two seasons but still remains relatively underrated. They also have Amobi Okoye, who is a great DT. The Jaguars used to be known as a run-stopping team, but without Marcus Stroud last year they struggled. I give this point to the Texans.

Linebackers: DeMecco Ryans wins this one single-handedly for Houston, the guy is an absolute monster.

You know what just occurred to me though, no one, myself included, is particularly interested in either the Texans or the Jaguars, so maybe I should stop wasting my time comparing the two so extensively.

Defensive Backs: Mathis is great. Point for Jacksonville.

Special teams: Houston has a better kicker.

I’ll wrap it up with this: Houston is better on offense, Jacksonville’s better on defense, Jones-Drew is a game-breaking stud and I think the Jags finish 9-7 and Houston finishes 8-8, again.

Now on to the Colts, winners of the AFC South.

First, let’s answer my question from earlier: who the heck is Jim Caldwell?? Well, turns out he’s been a Colts offensive assistant coach for the past seven seasons, which is an impressive place to be. Before that he helped coach at Tampa Bay and was head coach at Wake Forest; it seems he has been groomed to be Tony Dungy’s replacement for years and although he’s a complete unknown, it won’t surprise me to see him succeed. Everybody knows this is Peyton Manning’s team, and Jim was the quarterback’s coach when Peyton threw 49 TDs in 2004. Therefore, I’m going out on a limb and saying Jim Caldwell is a good coach.

Manning won’t be affected at all by the departure of Marvin Harrison, but will instead utilize Anthony Gonzalez more and a steady dose of Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Most Colts fans seem to agree that Joseph Addai isn’t a wonderful running back, and I agree, but on an offense that is so heavily geared toward passing the ball, it really doesn’t matter too much. Addai’s good enough, and that Colts offensive line is rock solid.

On defense the Colts are vulnerable. They show flashes of dominance and flashes of futility. They’ve never been great at stopping the run. Or the pass either, for that matter. But they have two of the very best defensive players in the NFL: Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders. It always seemed to me that Tony Dungy made his biggest impact on the defensive side, and his absence might spell trouble for the Colts defense. They won’t be bad enough to keep the Colts from winning the division, but they may be bad enough to keep the Colts from reaching the AFC Championship.

Chances of winning the AFC South:
IND – 64%
JAX – 20%
HOU – 9%
TEN – 7%

Last, and least, the AFC West. This division is not very interesting. The Broncos seem determined to fall apart. Al Davis seems determined to punish Raider fans. The Cheifs are sneakily rebuilding. And the Chargers win the division, no matter how hard they try to lose it. Here’s an interesting bit of information for you guys though: who would you guess is the best player in this division, on any team, at any position? LT? Merriman? Bailey? What if I told you it is actually an Oakland Raider. Well, it is, and I’ll say who later if you haven’t already guessed.

First, the Chargers. They won the division last year at 8-8 and then got pummeled in the playoffs. But all that without star linebacker Shawn Merriman, who will be back and back with vengeance. The Bolts defense was predicted to be one of the elite last year, and for good reason; along with Merriman, Luis Castillo, Quintin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, and Shaun Phillips make for a really good defensive team. Even without Merriman, they should have done so much better than they did. Merriman may be the best fit for the 3-4 of any linebacker in the NFL, though, and his absence may have impacted the Chargers defense almost as much as Brady’s injury impacted New England. Last year Merriman had two tackles total; the three years before that, he was averaging over 13 sacks a season. As a linebacker. Unreal.

One of the biggest questions going into the 2009 NFL and Fantasy seasons is this: just how washed up is LaDanian Tomlinson? Does he have any more great seasons left in him? Is he going to go Shaun Alexander on us, or revive his career when the doubters are counting him out, a lá Kurt Warner? I honestly don’t know. I think his motivation is out of whack. Last year he did put up over 1,500 yards and 12 TDs. Not a bad season at all, but it was by his standards. He’s not going to have any more 30 touchdown seasons like he did in ‘06, but he should at least be their best running back. Darren Sproles played better in the playoffs last year than LT played all year. Will they split time this year? Is that disrespectful to a future Hall of Famer?

(Note: Tomlinson is 38 rushing touchdowns behind Emmitt “The Imposter” Smith for the most all-time. I really, really hope he gets it. Three seasons ought to be enough. Four definitely will be. Come on LT, stay strong for us Detroit fans.)

(On a related note, Peyton Manning is closer than you might think to the all-time passing records for yards and TDs. He needs 130 touchdowns and less than 20,000 yards. By his standards, that’s five seasons. He’s 33. He could do it. Here’s the real point: Do you think that honestly doesn’t have anything to do with why Brett Favre can’t stay away from the NFL?!?? If Favre calls it quits now, today, he has to sit back and hope Manning doesn’t catch him, while his numbers stay still. But if he plays for the Vikings and has a completely ho-hum season of 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, he makes it that much harder for Peyton to catch him. It’s like in high school, when I was running my best 5K my senior year and realized as I saw the clock by the finish line that I was going for the school record. I knew that every second counted, because I was potentially setting the new standard to be broken. Every second could be the difference between Forest Hills immortality, and second place. That’s what it’s like for Favre, except on a million times bigger scale. Of course that’s part of why he wants to keep playing. It might even be one of the biggest reasons. He knows Peyton Manning isn’t stupid enough to keep playing until he’s 45. Only Favre is that stupid. And that stupidity just could be what seals him the two most important quarterback records for another two decades at least, because there is no other threat in the NFL right now.)

(Coincidently, I only broke the school record by half a second, and within two years I was bumped down to fourth place. I am now completely irrelevant. But I was the only runner to take off my track spike, and try to stab someone with it. So I have that going for me.)

So where was I? Oh, the Chargers … right, well next onto the Chiefs then.

I like to pick upsets, and I am picking a number of them. The Redskins, Saints, 49ers, Bills, all playoff teams. Those are all upset picks, but none greater than my Super Upset Special Pick of 2009: The Kansas City Chiefs!

Led by quarterback Matt Cassel and new coach Todd Haley, the Chiefs offense is going to be good. You might be thinking, who is going to run the ball for them? I’ll tell you: it doesn’t matter. Haley isn’t interested in running. This is the guy who was the offensive coordinator for last years Cardinals, a team that threw the ball an average of about three times a game. He was a wide receivers coach for three other teams. He loves the passing game. He has coached Keyshaun, T.O., Fitzgerald, and now he has budding star in Dwayne Bowe. They’ve also got Bobby Engram and Mark Bradley, and something tells me they won’t miss Tony Gonzalez much at all. Branden Albert has the makings of a stud left tackle but the rest of the offensive line is young and probably not very good, so I won’t give the Chiefs offense too much hoopla. But I will say that Bowe has a huge season. Huge. 100 catches, 1200 yards, 12 TDs. At least. And Cassel solidifies himself as a bona fide NFL quarterback and the future of the Chiefs.

On defense the Chiefs have a few young studs, namely Glenn Dorsey, Derrick Johnson, and this year’s #3 overall pick Tyson Jackson. Jackson appears to be a pick based around shaping the 3-4 defense, allowing both Zach Thomas and Mike Vrabel, who combine for almost 70 years, to play inside while letting Johnson move to the outside. The secondary is nothing special but if the 3-4 is implemented successfully it should help them out a lot. I like the Chiefs for about 9 wins this year. A lot of offensive shootouts. They just might be this years Cardinals. (Minus the Super Bowl)

The Broncos are next. Doesn’t it seem like they are setting themselves up for a horrible season? They are doing the opposite of rebuilding. They deconstructing. Taking apart their essential pieces are starting over with Kyle Orton. When the new coach Josh McDaniels came to town, he certainly stirred things up; Mike Shanahan was the Broncos coach for two decades and he ran the ball. Even with Elway, he still kept the focus on running. The zone blocking scheme was born in Denver. Now this new coach, a by-product of the Bellichek blueprint, wants to shake everything up and go a little pass happy. What would be the perfectly wrong way to accomplish that? How about pissing over the star quarterback, trading 40 cents on the dollar for him, and then pissing off the star receiver a few months later?? Now Brandon Marshall is demanding a trade, and the offensive core is looking like Kyle Orton, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno, and Eddie Royal. Wait a second, does McDaniels think this the NCAA? Because if it was, he just might have a chance at a BCS birth.

I mean come on, the Broncos are notoriously small and quick, everywhere from offensive line to defense. That’s why they zone-block so well, but struggle with pass protection. Now using the same players, McDaniels wants to implement an entirely new system, asking them to change what they’ve always done and let themselves be led by neck-bearded Kyle Orton. Don’t get me wrong, I was hyped about the McDaniels coaching gig when it first happened, as he is the man who is so often accredited with the Patriots offensive success. But without yet coaching an NFL game, I think he has already made himself the worst head coach in the NFL. Jay Cutler may not be perfect - sure, he might not even as good as Matt Cassel, as McDaniels apparently believes- but letting him leave town for the Bears, for no good reason? Just because you trade to trade him and he found out? Just not good player management at all. They did receive first round picks in 2009 and 2010 for Cutler however, so we’ll have to see how it works out.

Denver is always lousy at defense. Champ Bailey is a good shutdown corner and they acquired the very old but still very good Brian Dawkins to play strong safety, but other than that … they lack the pass rush and the tackling presence to improve and lift themselves out of the cellar of the league’s worst defensive teams. They can’t stop the run, don’t expect that to change.

One thing that could help Denver finish close to .500 instead of 4 or 5 wins would be a speedy development of Georgia rookie Knowshon Moreno. They drafted him twelfth overall and seem to be set to give him the keys to the backfield, the first running back since Portis to own the job single-handedly. Shanahan was obsessed with the running-back-by-committee approach (and had good success with it, albeit he drove fantasy owners nuts), and McDaniels seems like he’s trying to do everything different than Shanahan, so they drafted Moreno and decided to make him the man. How will he do? He’s a little small (5’11’’ 215 lbs) but very fast and hard to tackle; I watched a few youtube videos of him and he loves that spin move. He’s got a little Adrian Peterson in him, he breaks through the middle and looks for the big play. Good vision like that just can’t be taught, it’s innate. I believe in Moreno. He’s the obvious favorite for Rookie of the Year, since he should be getting 25 touches a game. He’ll be over 1,000 yards, but how far over? Could he go as high as 1,500? Perhaps. We’ll wait and see.

I saved the worst team in the AFC for last, and that’s the Oakland Raiders. I really hate to say it, but JaMarcus Russell is the Black Matt Stafford. Or other way around. But not a good thing. McFadden is poised for a breakout year, but he’s not going to have much help from the passing game or the offensive line. Drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh overall pick was hilariously bad. He’s Devin Hester without the kick returning. He’s Usain Bolt but not as fast. Football is a contact sport, not a foot-race. Heyward-Bey is a nice slot guy if you already have two good receivers, but a top ten draft pick?? Are you joking? JaMarcus “The Holdout” Russell will have another terrible season and soon be labeled the biggest draft bust since Darco Milicic. The Oakland offense is bad. Really bad.

But their defense isn’t much better. They don’t put pressure on the quarterback, they can’t stop the run and they can’t stop the pass on one side of the field. But the Raiders have one thing going for them that no other team in the NFL has, one very huge advantage who many people haven’t heard of because they can’t pronounce his name. Nnamdi Asomugha. (Nam-Dee Aso-Mu-Wah). Hands down, the best cornerback in the NFL. Put your hands down. He only had one interception and 40 tackles last year. Why is that? Because opposing teams don’t throw in his direction. They just don’t. And if they do, it’s incomplete. Or picked off. Check out these eye-popping numbers:

In 2006 Asomugha had his breakout season, with eight interceptions. Then in 2007, quarterbacks were terrified to throw towards him. Either that, or when the looked over in his direction, their receiver was blanketed. So how many passes did he defend in 2007? Thirty-one. For a whopping total of ten completions. But wait, it gets better. Last year, he was thrown at twenty-seven times for a total of eight completions. Only one wide receiver caught more than one ball against him all season, Randy Moss, who had three catches for forty yards. The thing is, Asomugha lines up against your #1 receiver, whether you like it or not. Last year he faced Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, and Moss, and gave up a total, A TOTAL of eight completions. Less than one per game. Absolutely Incredible. Best player in the AFC West. Quite possible the best defensive player in the NFL. One NFL scout recently said that Asomugha will be thrown at “less than any defender in the last ten years.” Even the grinch himself, Bill Bellichek, called Nnamdi “as complete a cornerback as he has ever seen.” That’s not a guy who gives out too many compliments.

As always, there are fantasy implications for a player as dominant as Asomugha, even if he plays on the defensive side. Since I won’t talk about defensive players in my upcoming fantasy preview, I’ll give you a sure-fire tip right now: If you have a receiver playing against the Raiders, sit him. No matter what, I don’t care who it is. Unless it’s a #2 receiver, in which case he will probably have a huge game. But if you have Fitzgerald, Wayne, or whoever, DO NOT try your luck against Asomugha, or you will end up with one completion for 13 yards. Better to pick up Mike Furrey off the waiver wire and hope he gets signed real quick. (Wait, I just looked it up and confirmed, Furrey is currently on the Cleveland Browns.)

So to wrap up the Raiders in a nutshell - horrible team, one amazing cornerback. Five wins.

AFC West: percentages of each team winning:
SD –64%
KC – 18%
DEN – 13%
OAK – 5%


So to summarize the AFC, the Patriots, Steelers, Colts and Chargers will combine for 48 wins and the Bills and Chiefs win wildcards, with the Jags close behind but losing the tiebreaker. In the end, Brady and Manning will have a classic duel in the AFC Championship, New England will come out on top, 31-27, and Ben Roethlisberger will come out of the closet and reveal that he has been in a relationship with Sidney Crosby for several years.


Here is your 2009 AFC Pro Bowl:

QB – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Cassel

RB – Maurice Jones-Drew, LaDanian Tomlinson, Steve Slaton

WR – Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Dwayne Bowe, Reggie Wayne

TE – Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark

AFC MVP – Brady, of course.

AFC Rookies of the Year:
Offense – Knowshon Moreno
Defense – Aaron Maybin

AFC Coach of the Year: Let’s go with Bill Bellichek. He deserves it. I mean, he is the best coach in the NFL.



If you made it all the way to the end, thanks for reading and stay tuned for my upcoming, incredibly long Fantasy Football 2009 Preview. Also I will probably write something about the NBA before too long.

Peace out.

working on ...

working on the afc preview right now. about half way through it. work's been busier so it's taking a while.

after that i will be writing a monstrous report on all things fantasy football. for now here is a quick, subject-to-change, top fifteen:

1. AP
2. MJD
3. Brees
4. Westbrook
5. Turner
6. Brady
7. Gore
8. Portis
9. Tomlinson
10. Slaton
11. Forte
12. Barber
13. Fitzgerald
14. Addai
15. Calvin Johnson

NFC Preview

This is my longest and most time-consuming work to date. What it lacks in coherency and direction in more than makes up for in sheer length. So if you have an hour to kill and want to know my thoughts on the NFC this season, sit down, grab a drink and a snack, and without further ado ...Presenting, my 2009 National Football Conference preview of all four divisions and sixteen teams, composed over the course of several weeks of monotonous workdays:


We begin with the NFC East, the most compelling and competitive division.

Unlike the other three divisions, a serious case can be made for any of the four teams to win this division. The Giants won the Super Bowl two years ago, the Cowboys were the NFC favorites last year, the Eagles are the deepest and most well-rounded team in the NFC, and the Redskins added perhaps the best defensive player in the NFL, Albert Haynesworth, to an already good defense. Three of the teams have star quarterbacks, the Giants (Eli), Cowboys, (Romo), and Eagles (McNabb), so the common logic is to assume the Redskins will be cellar dwellers once again in the ultra-competitive East. Not so fast I say.

But let's start with my pick: The Philadelphia Eagles. I'm sure this won't be the most popular choice amongst the NFL experts, but to me the Eagles are the best team in this division and in the entire NFC. Offensively they have the best player in the East in Brian Westbrook, and a quickly improving receiving group of DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis and rookie Jeremy Maclin, who was an absolute steal for them. They have a consistently stellar offensive line. It all comes down to Donovan McNabb, his injuries, and his ability to manage the game and not get in his own way. Hand the ball to Westbrook, throw him little screens and let him do the rest. Defensively, the Eagles are always great. Their Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson does not mess around. They blitz more than any other team, and with Asante Samuel as their top cover corner they can get away with it. I think the reason the Eagles win the East is because the rest of the division lacks a dominant passing game to exploit the Eagles' blitz-happiness. (More on that later.)

In another slightly shocking prediction, I think the Redskins will finish second in the division. 90% of the reason is Big Albert Haynesworth. I don't think people realize how dramatic an impact one defensive tackle can have. Look at the result of last year's Marcus Stroud move - the Jaguars fell apart on defense, and the Bills improved by leaps. Haynesworth is twice the DT that Stroud is, and not only will he turn the Redskins into run-stuffing fiends, his presence will open them up to rush the passer using only the D-line. Which then enables the safeties and linebackers to roam free and cover and create all sorts of problems. His departure also spells the end of the Titans, who will fall from 13 wins last year to 5 or 6 this year.

Offensively, the Redskins still have the Portis/Betts combo running the ball behind an effective offensive line. Jason Campbell has the skills and size to excel but hasn't put together a good season yet. I thought last year would be it. Maybe this year. The Skins drafted three rookie pass-catchers in 2008 who combined for, I don't know, maybe 5 catches last year. It will be interesting as they try to incorporate the young Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly with veterans Santana Moss and Antwaan Randel-El and still find looks for Chris Cooley, but having five capable receivers is a good problem to have. I already talked about the inevitable defensive improvements that the Redskins will enjoy, but even before Haynesworth signed his $100 million-plus deal they already had an above average defense. Now it's going to scare people.

I'm going to lump the Cowboys and Giants together. Everyone's going to be expecting a lot and picking them as playoff teams, and rightfully so after the past two or three seasons. Eli and Romo are household names at quarterback, Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs are running backs that no defense ever wants to go against, and they both have studs on the defensive line: DeMarcus Ware on Dallas and Justin Tuck & Osi Umenyiora on NY. Their most striking similarity however, is this: both teams lost their controversial, ego-maniacal, game-changing star wide receiver this off-season and both team's offenses are going to suffer as a result. Plaxico Burress skipped practices, got in legal trouble, and shot himself in the leg (which is so easy to make fun of, that I'm having a really hard time knowing what to say). Terell Owens is simply the most psychotic athlete since Dennis Rodman, and possibly the worst teammate ever, in any sport. But the fact is, for all the trouble that these two nuisances create, they still make plays, particularly in the end zone. They have size, strength, and experience, and are the number one receiving threat that quarterbacks rely on. When you have a great running game, a great O-line and a great quarterback, you need that number one receiver as a sort of knock-out punch, to take advantage of the defense when it focuses too much attention on the running game. Owens and Burress can do that. Their replacements, Domenik Hixon and Roy Williams, not so much. Roy Williams is a career loser, but a great talent, and the 'Boys still have an outstanding tight end in Jason Witten, so they still have hope of being an offensive powerhouse; the problem is, I just don't trust their goober of a coach Wade Phillips. Talk about a guy who inspires no confidence. And speaking of dopey-looking guys who inspire no confidence, the Giants have a quarterback named Eli Manning. I think both teams collapse under big-market pressure, notch maybe six or seven wins each, and Jessica Simpson breaks up with Tony Romo.

That's enough on the East. The rivalries in this division are so intense that any of the twelve inter-division games could be dogfights (no Michael Vick pun intended) and I could be totally wrong here. I think there's a decent sleepers' chance that the Redskins are this year's Titans and they cruise to 12 or 13 wins behind the run-and-stuff-the-run philosophy. I also want to entertain the possibility that Eli Manning gets exposed as a complete joke and the Giants go 4-12. I'm serious, I can see it happening. First they got rid of Shockey, and now Burress and Ward... they must really think Eli is the next Tom Brady and want to see if he too can dominate with sub-par receivers. Good luck Dopey.

If I had to assign percentages to each team's chances of winning the division, I would be cautious and say:
PHI - 32%
WAS - 28%
NYG - 21%
DAL - 19%

Now on to the NFC South.

This division is the total enigma. Before last year began, the Falcons were in total disarray and looked likely to win maybe 2 games. This year the single biggest trend among NFL experts will be picking them to win the division, and maybe going to the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan emerged last year as a star, as did Michael Turner, as well as Roddy White, and then they added Tony Gonzalez. What's not to love about that offense? I can't argue, as much as I like to go against the grain, and so I too think the Falcons win the division. As for the Matt Ryan phenomenon, I need a little more time to be sold. I don't want to be one of those suckers who proclaim him the next great in the line of Brady and Elway and it turns out he is the next Carson Palmer. No question that Ryan is a future star, but the question is how big a star. I loved watching him last year, but so did 31 defensive coordinators who are plotting against him even as we speak.

As for the rest of the division, I'll say the Saints improve, the Panthers deprove (that should be a word), and the Bucs deprove even more. I hated everything about the Panthers in last year's playoffs and DeAngelo Williams magical season was a one year wonder. As for the Bucs, how the heck do they keep going 9-7 or 8-8 every year? They're terrible. I'll tell you how - great coaching. Letting John Gruden go was the single dumbest thing they could have done, and I hope they go 1-15 without him. Which they might.

The Falcons are a fantasy football dreamboat, which is one of the main reasons why I am leery about them this year. Turner will be the second overall pick in most fantasy leagues, and Ryan, Roddy White, and Gonzalez should all be statistically stellar this year as well. But if recent years in the NFL have taught us anything, it's that high scoring offenses don't always equate to wins.

Which is a perfect segway to talk about the New Orleans Saints. Last year Drew Brees established himself as the best Quarterback in the NFC, even with his best receiver injured for half the year. Reggie Bush still hasn't become an every-down back but his speed and pass catching abilities make him the ultimate big play threat. Deuce McAllister and his injured legs are finally gone, but Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker have both showed they can be the up-the-middle guy that the Saints need to keep defenses honest. The problem is not with their offense. Well, the problem isn't with the offense gaining yards. Punching the ball into the end zone is more of the concern. That, and defense.

They have a few solid playmakers on defense, but didn't do enough this off-season to dramatically change the fact they give up a ton of points. The reason I think the Saints improve this season and maybe upset the Falcons to take the division is simple: a quarterback as good as Drew Brees shouldn't be kept out of the playoffs this many years in a row. Especially in such a lousy division. It's just inexplicable. I hope this is the season we finally see Brees take it to the next level and take over games single-handedly.

The Panthers finished 12-4 last year, and anyone who thinks they will repeat that is kidding themselves. Jake Delhomme played one of the worst playoff games in history and will be their quarterback going into week one. He was productive enough through last season to win 12 games, but his turnovers were high, his accuracy was off, and he largely benefitted from a strong supporting cast. DeAngelo Williams was off the chain last year, breaking 60 yard runs nearly every game and scoring 16 times. They will integrate Jonathon Stewart and have one of the league's most effective 1-2 punches, and they still have Steve Smith, who is unquestionably a top 10 receiver in the NFL, and very arguably top 5. (Let me see, off the top of my head... Calvin, Fitzgerald, Andre, Moss, Smith, Owens, Marshall, Jennings, Boldin, Bowe... Yeah I suppose he would be fifth. Of course I'm talking merely from a football perspective and not a fantasy perspective. There's is plenty of time to talk about fantasy football, but for now I'm trying to focus on the real thing.) So the Panthers return a lot of talent on offense and have a developing stud at left tackle in Jeff Otah. Defensively they have a giant question mark named Julius Peppers, one of the game's best pass rushers, who is disgruntled for who knows what reason. He's talked about holding out, being traded, or whatever, but no matter what the situation is, the Panthers need him on the field to be successful on defense. Look, I'm not hating on the Panthers. Last season I picked them to win the division. This season, I'm picking them to go 7-9. It's nothing personal. I love their colors and North Carolina is my very favorite state. But they have a history of winning on the road and losing at home, and that doesn't make any sense, so I just don't see them staying in the playoffs.

And then there are those Buccaneers the notorious beasts on the defenses end. But I have more than one reason to believe that their legacy as stout defenders is about to come crashing down. I'm not saying they'll be in the bottom five of the league in defense - they still have Ronde Barber, and promising young stars Gaines Adams and Aqib Talib. But for the past decade, the Bucs defense has been defined and led by two exceptional men: future Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. Brooks was released after the 2008 season, and leaves a gaping hole at linebacker and in the locker room. Kiffin, the architect of the Bucs' Super Bowl winning defense and considered one of the true defensive geniuses in the NFL, left after last season to coach at the college level with his son. It's a touching story, but it's bad news for Tampa Bay.

Worst of all, they fired coach Jon Gruden and made a young defensive backs coach their head coach. Their quarterback situation consists of Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown, Brian Griese, Josh Johnson, and rookie Josh Freeman battling it out in a five-way competition. As new coach Raheem Morris put it: "One bone. Five dogs." More like five prairie dogs. At running back they picked up the Giants Derrick Ward, who I actually love and think would be a stud on a better team. But the Bucs are destined to suffer from poor QB play no matter who earns the starting job. To make things even worse, they picked up a cancer player in tight end Kellen Winslow. What he has in talent, he nullifies with his stupid actions and poisonous personality. Bringing in a guy like that to a team with no leader or identity, is a stupid, stupid move. Everything about this Bucs team reminds me of last years Lions. Inexperience, bad quarterbacks that will inevitably be shuffled around throughout the season, a few good defenders and a lot of lousy ones, and a bunch of coaches that don't know what they're doing. Having no leadership can really kill a team.

When you look at this division from a strictly offensive standpoint, it's clear that the Bucs are a mile behind. Atlanta has Ryan, Turner, and White; New Orleans has Brees, Bush and Colston; Carolina's got Delhomme, DeAngelo and Steve Smith. They all have the running-back-by-committee thing going strong too. (I forgot to mention the Falcon's Jerious Norwood, who makes their really good offense even more really good.) But who do the Buccaneers have? Leftwich, Ward and Antonio Bryant? Yikes.

Now for the math part, since I am technically an accountant these days; each teams' chances of winning the division:
ATL - 48%
NO - 35%
CAR - 13%
TB - 4%


I want to save my own division for last, so I'm going to move on to the NFC West. The Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and St. Louis Rams. I bet you think I'm going to say this division sucks. You would certainly think so, after last year the Cardinals won the division at 8-8. The Rams have been on par with the Lions the past two seasons, winning a total of five games. The 49ers stink and the Seahawks have been on the decline since they lost the Super Bowl four years ago. Right? Well a lot can change in one year. No one thought the Dolphins or Falcons would see the playoffs a year ago. You have to think progressively when predicting the NFL. You have to look at the minor changes, not just the major ones. Losing teams get tired of losing and sometimes they start winning. There is no greater motivational force in sports than the "Nobody believed in us!" mantra. The entire NFC West could rally around that battle cry and each win at least six games.

So who wins the division? Should I take the easy route and say Arizona? Actually, maybe not. Super Bowl losing teams have a tendency to stink the following year. In fact, six of the last eight Super Bowl losers failed to even have a winning record the next year. And unlike last year, it will take at least 9-7 to win this division. For the past two seasons, I have stupidly picked the Rams to win the division, and both times they have made me feel like a fool. I have a man-crush on Steven Jackson and I'm not ashamed to admit it. I want to say I've learned my lesson, and I have when it comes to Marc "No One's Open So I'll Just Throw A Pick" Bulger. The dude is terrible. But I'm actually quite tempted to pick the Rams yet again, for reasons I'll explain in a minute. I have a gut-feeling that San Fran or Seattle could win this division too. I'm not sure who I want to pick right now. Here's a crazy fact for you though: the three best players in this year's NFL draft all went to this division - Aaron Curry to Seattle, Michael Crabtree to San Fran, and Jason Smith to St. Louis. The NFC West could be the future of the NFL.

I'm not completely sold on Arizona as division winners, despite last year's Cinderella fiesta in the playoffs. I'm sold on Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, but the rest of the team is worrisome. Kurt Warner is good, but he's old. Anquan Boldin is good, but he's being a rascal and might not play for them next year. My fear is that the Cardinals suffer an identity crisis, and here's why; coach Ken Whisenhunt is a smash-up-the-middle type, and Kurt Warner likes to sling the ball for 400 yards a game. Stylistically, they clash. I like the former Richmond Spider, Tim Hightower, at running back a lot more than Edgerrin James; however, I'm not sure he can be an every down back. Really, I just wanted to talk about him because I wanted to mention that he played college at Richmond. Go Spiders! I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of quintuple-coverage this season on Fitzgerald and a bumbling offense falter. Their defense is okay, but nothing great. I see them winning anywhere from 6 to 9 games.

St. Louis has always been one of my favorite non-Detroit teams and I've had a hard time accepting how horrible they are. I wanted the transition from Marshall Faulk to Steven Jackson to be seamless and beautiful, because when Faulk was still playing I knew Jackson was a star just waiting to be born. But then the offensive line became aged and injured and Jackson got injured too, and Bulger turned into a rotting corpse disguised as an athlete. So the Rams became awful. Is this the year they can turn it around? Man, I hope so. But it's probably going to take more than one year. They drafted to ultimate building block, Jason Smith at left tackle to replace Orlando Pace and protect Bulger's fumbling blind side. They let go of Torry Holt but Donnie Avery should be able to match his production.

The big story is new coach Steve Spagnuolo, who brings great defensive playcalling and ingenuity to a Rams defense desperate for an overhaul. Spagnuolo was the defensive coordinator of the Giants and before that was an Eagle's assistant and learned the ropes from Jim Johnson. He's one of those rare coaches who can succeed with minimal talent. Which is good, because that's exactly what the Rams have. Although they do have defensive end Chris Long (Howie Long’s son), who was the #2 overall pick last year and should be ready to develop into a stud. But just for the record, I'm not going to be stupid enough to pick them to win the division again. Maybe next year.

It's always risky to pick a team with an unknown starting quarterback to succeed, but that's what I'm prepared to do with the 2009 49ers. Is it going to be Alex Smith or Shaun Hill? Time will tell, but my gut tells me that Mike Singletary will make the right pick. (Which has got to be Shaun Hill. His record as a starter is 7-3. I don't know what Alex Smith's record is but my guess would be 2-50.) Singletary has been a great coach for them so far, instilling a winning attitude and refusing to let losing become the norm.

Assuming Hill starts under center, the 49er offense should actually be a good one. He's got Frank Gore, after all, who is one of the best all-around talents at running back, and now Michael Crabtree to throw to, who was an absolutely colossal steal for them at pick 10. A lot of scouts considered Crabtree the best overall player in the draft at any position, and he got picked 10th? How does that happen?? Isaac Bruce should make a good mentor for Crabtree and hopefully steer him in the right direction, and Arnaz Battle, Brandon Jones and Josh Morgan round out a surprisingly deep receiving core. And then there's Vernon Davis, perhaps the most athletic tight end in the NFL, but also the one most notorious for bad work ethic and bad route running. It takes a hard-core coach to get a guy like that to perform, and Singletary could be that guy . One things for sure, any offense that fires Mike Martz will be much improved. And 49ers fans won't have to hear the words "offensive genius, mad scientist, complex playbook, and pass-happy" fifty times a game and scream at their TV "If he's such a genius why does our offense suck!!?"

But the real reason I like the 49ers is not because of their offense, but because of their defense, and especially because of their switch to the 3-4. Playing in the 3-4 seems to benefit teams that have outstanding linebackers, and Patrick Willis just might be the best linebacker in all the NFL. Takeo Spikes ain't bad either. Willis's speed, strength and tackling are unmatched. He'll be able to put to torment opposing offenses by blitzing at will and roaming all over the field, and will be facing the worst division in the NFL from an offensive standpoint (you think he won't enjoy teeing off on Julius Jones and Tim Hightower?) If Willis doesn't lead the NFL in tackles playing in the new 3-4, I will be greatly surprised. He might get 10 or 15 sacks as well. San Fran also has two very solid secondary players, shutdown corner Nate Clemens and strong safety Michael Lewis. I like their defense this year. And it's worth repeating that they will be playing six games against really sub-par offenses. So yes, I am picking San Francisco to win the NFC West this year.

(One last 49ers note: this is a stab in the dark, but the previously mentioned disgruntled defensive end named Julius Peppers has repeatedly said that he wants to play in the 3-4 scheme. He's unhappy in Carolina and is holding out. The most commonly rumored destination for him? San Fran. It's highly unlikely to happen this year as Carolina is refusing to trade him, but it's worth wondering about. He is a perfect fit for the 3-4, and if he somehow ends up in San Francisco this year, their defense is automatically one of the best in the NFC, if not the best.)

The last team in the NFC West is the least exciting, and that's the Seattle Seahawks. The big news is that quarterback Matt Hasslebeck is finally healthy, after what seems like a decade of steady injuries. I have started wondering if it's the injuries that have made him play poorly in recent years, or the deterioration of the offensive line, or the natural aging process, or maybe he wasn't even that good to begin with. Probably a combination of all four. As soon as Seattle lost Steve Hutchison and Mack Strong four or five years ago, their offense went to crap. Shaun Alexander was exposed. Doesn't it make sense that Hasslebeck would be exposed too?

Bringing in chronically unhappy Bengals receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh was supposed to cure the Seahawks offensive woes and give them the #1 receiver that they lacked. It makes sense in theory. But I highly doubt it will work. It's a bit like cutting off your leg and putting a Flintstones band-aid over it. And that pretty accurately describes how I feel about
TJH as a #1 WR. He's not much more than a Flintstones band-aid. His stats have been so gaudy the past couple years that he earned a big contract and a big role, and rightfully so, but the whole NFL is about to discover that he's not a true #1 receiver after all. There are three main reasons why TJ's stats have been so good in Cincinnati: one, Carson Palmer's a pretty good quarterback; two, Chad Johnson draws a lot of attention; and three, the Bengals were almost always playing from behind, and therefore throwing a lot. Now there's no reason TJ's stats will see a major decrease in Seattle, except for maybe more rainy games, because Hasslebeck, Branch, and the crappy Seahawks team replace the three things TJ had going for him in Ohio pretty well. So, I am not saying that Housh is a terrible fantasy pick this year. I am saying that in terms of wins and losses, he's not the guy Seattle should have went after this offseason.

Julius Jones is one of the least impressive starting running backs in the NFL and one of the least talented, and running behind a lackluster offensive line won't help him any. Add to their troubles a head coaching change (Mike Holmgren is out, Jim Mora Jr. is in) and the departure of Hasslebeck's favorite target Bobby Engram (to the Chiefs) and I just don't like their offense at all. You don't see many teams build their offensive around two wide receivers who held out with their former teams, acted like spoiled brats, and basically announced publicly "I only play football for the money." But that's what Seattle has in Deion Branch and TJ Houshmandzadeh, and it doesn't seem like a good way to play inspired football and win many games.

The one reason to get excited about the Seahawks season is rookie linebacker and super-stud Aaron Curry. He was unanimously considered the safest pick this year and was the absolute steal of steals falling to them at number four. Between Curry, Lofa Tatupu, and LeRoy Hill (another Seattle holdout), the 'Hawks are considered one of the best linebacking corps in the NFL. The rest of their defense, however, is not all that special. Defensive end Patrick Kerney seems to have lost so much speed that he's become almost irrelevant. I can tell you from experience that Cory Redding is not good at all. Marcus Trufant is a pretty good cornerback, but last year was the worst year of his career and he had only one interception. Bottom line, I'm not excited about Seattle defense either this year, and foresee no more than five wins for them.

So to wrap up the NFC West statistically speaking, here are each team's chances of winning the division:
SF: 36%
ARZ: 31%
STL: 19%
SEA: 14%


Now the moment we've all been waiting for, the NFC North. The Black and Blue Division. The division of running backs and linebackers. The division that I call home.

Unfortunately, I can't pick the Lions to win and still look at myself in the mirror with any self-respect. Of course there's a chance they win it. I won't rule it out. I can certainly see it happening, but I can't say it's the most likely situation. All three other teams are pretty darn good. Two of them have Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks. Two of them have Pro Bowl caliber running backs. The Lions have neither. All three of them have Pro Bowl caliber players all over their defenses. The Lions have one. Maybe two. So sadly, I won't be picking the Lions to win the NFC North.

Who will I be picking? I still haven't decided. This is probably the toughest call yet, even tougher that the East. You can make a great case for all three teams. The Bears added Cutler and still have a great defense. The Packers have the Rodgers-Jennings connection and drafted two startable defenders that they sorely needed. And the Vikings have AP and the league's best set of defensive tackles. I am feeling the pressure to get this pick right, because this is my division, and also because I've been dead-on two years in a row. After the Bears Super Bowl flop in 06, I called the Pack to pull the surprise in Brett's last year and win the North in 07 (when EVERYONE else was picking the Bears, who went 7-9). Then last year I predicted the Vikings would win it, which they did. I still haven't decided which way to go for this season, so I'm going to go team by team before I make a final decision.

Let's start alphabetically with the Chicago Bears. Obviously the story is Jay Cutler. How good is he? Or, how much better is he that the Orton/Grossman combo? Matt Forte showed how good is he last season as a rookie, when he shredded just about everybody he played against and had an outstanding year. The Bears still have the world's best kick return man, Devin Hester, who had an off-year last year but is still dangerous to score anytime he gets the ball. But, as always with Chicago, it all starts and ends with defense.

Brian Urlacher: The most overrated player in the NFL or a deserving superstar? Depending on the game, he seems to fill both roles. Which in my mind makes him a deservingly good player, but not worth the hype. Watching a Bears game, you're sure to hear the world "Urlacher" at least one-hundred times more than necessary, such as "Briggs made a great tackle there, but did you see the way URLACHER was in pursuit?! If the play was a few seconds longer, you can bet that URLACHER would have put a licking on that running back! URLACHER RULES!!" Did I mention that I can't stand Brian Urlacher? Or that he once dated Paris Hilton? Yuck.

Aside from Urlacher, the Bears defense is stacked. Adewale Ogunleye, Dusty Dvoracek and Tommy Harris give the Bears one of the best defensive lines in the league. Briggs and Hillenmeyer serve the purpose of making Urlacher look good, when really all three of them are probably about equally good linebackers. Tillman and Vasher are good cornerbacks and I don't know who either of their safeties are, but it doesn't matter too much on this defense. Their defense will be good. It's too talented and has spent too much time together to have a random bad season. They could be the best D in the league, they could be as low as tenth, but no matter what they'll be good.

Unlike the rest of the country, I do not have a crush on Jay Cutler. I think he has a strong arm and is a competitive guy. How is he any different than rookie Matt Stafford? He makes a lot of mental mistakes and turns the ball over more than almost anyone. How does that make him the hero of Illinois? More than anything else, he strikes me as a cocky, bratty punk who is really talented. He can definitely throw the ball as far as anyone, but his accuracy leaves something to be desired. (In Madden, I could see his stats being THP 98, THA 78). I didn't like anything about the way he handled the Denver-Cassel situation and think it showed his immaturity in a major way. So do I think Cutler immediately makes the Bears a title contender? No, not really. Does he improve their chances of winning the NFC North? Yes, but only because of how bad Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman are.

It will help him to have a very good running back to work with for the first time in his career, and the Bears should run Forte like crazy, at least 20 times a game. The combination of Hester's speed with Cutler's arm strength seems like a perfect match for deep balls. (Sort of like what the Lions and Raiders are trying to do with Stafford-Calvin and Russell-Heyward-Bey). I for one don't think the "strong-QB, fast-WR" method of offense is particularly effective. It seems that "accurate-QB, good-route-running-WR" has had much more success (see Brady, Manning) in recent past, but it's not as sexy. Sexy as a sports term is strange, but it makes good sense. Jay Cutler is one of those 'sexy' quarterbacks. Young, strong, cocky, unconventional. But sometimes, you just can't trust the sexy player to win the non-sexy games.
Back to where I started this paragraph, though, that's why the Bears should be thankful to have Matt Forte, the un-sexy running back who is going to carry them this year.

Before I address the Packers and the Vikings, I should probably address the giant elephant in the room: Brett Favre. But I’m going to save that for later. First, I’m going to just look at things as if he stays retired and makes a bunch of Wrangler commercials.

So, the Packers. It’s a little known fact that for a few years in middle school the Packers, not the Lions, were actually my favorite team. I was young and foolish and even owned a cheesehead (which my brother still mocks me for). What can I say, I loved Reggie White and Brett Favre’s boyish charm was infectious. What? Uhh.. anyway, suffice it to say that those days are far beyond me and no other team will ever seduce my loyalties away like the Packers did. I blame it all on Jimmy Jang.

Offensively, the Pack Attack is a solid B+ who can keep you in the game, but can’t really overtake the game and win all on their own. Rodgers played about as well as anyone thought he would last year, and was helped out tremendously by the vastly underrated Greg Jennings and the mildly overrated Donald Driver. James Jones is a very solid #3 guy and Donald Lee is a trusty tight end. Ryan Grant doesn’t do much special at running back, but he’s not a real hindrance to their game-plan either; I expect the Packers to divvy up the carriers between Grant and speedy Brandon Jackson a lot more this year. A year of NFL experience should help Rodgers improve his overall game, and we’re likely to see him in the Pro Bowl this year.

On defense is where I love Green Bay in 2009. Switching to the 3-4, they drafted two first-round pieces who they hope to plug in and start immediately. Nosetackle B.J. Raji is the ideal plug-the-middle DT that the 3-4 scheme needs, and Clay Matthews will start immediately at outside linebacker. Along with A.J. Hawke and Nick Barnett, Matthews gives the Packers a scary good group of LBs. Better than even the Bears, Seahawks or Lions. Probably the best group in the NFC. People don’t realize how good Barnett is. At cornerback the Packers have two wily veterans who can play isolated shutdown: Al Harris and Charles Woodson, and at strong safety they have an emerging star with a really cool name: Atari Bigby. But the star of Green Bay’s defense is elite pass rusher Aaron Kampman, who was NFL scout I was reading the other day called “the best overall player in the NFC North.” That’s a huge compliment, and although maybe a stretch, it’s not completely unwarranted. Kampman’s contribution doesn’t show up all over the stat sheet, but that’s because he draws a double team on nearly every play. Which is probably the very reason the Pack are switching to the 3-4 this season – an elite pass rushing DE opens up space for the linebackers to blitz and cause all sorts of trouble in the backfield. Man, I just can’t say enough about how much I love the Packers D this year. My only concern is that Woodson is getting just a bit too old.


I have a grudge against the Vikings ever since week six last season, when the Lions legitimately earned a victory against them and had it taken away by the refs. Not once, not twice, but three times in the last five minutes of a close game. There was the bogus no-call pass interference against Megatron, the insidiously bogus fumble call on Megatron and then failure to overturn it even though there was more than enough visual evidence, and then a phantom interference called against the Lions to move the Vikings up some thirty yards to win the game. I’m sorry, but when a wide receiver (Calvin) catches a tough pass while getting interfered with, then gets speared in the head the moment he touches the ball, and falls to the ground UNCONSCIOUS and the ball falls out of his hands (because he was just SPEARED IN THE HEAD AND IS UNCONSCIOUS) it is an incomplete pass. Not a fumble, an incomplete pass, and then a fifteen-yard penalty for the spear. But instead it was ruled a catch, and a fumble, even as CJ lay UNCONSCIOUSLY on the field. Why am I still so bitter about this? Because one extra win really makes a big difference when your season goes down in infamy as the only 0-16 season in NFL history. If we finished 1-15, we were just like a bunch of other teams and were sparred the embarrassment and ridicule. And technically, we were 1-15. That Vikings game was such BS. I hate the Vikings.

So anyway, on to the Vikings. Their offense is anchored by the best offensive player in the NFC, maybe the best overall player in the NFC. Maybe even in the entire NFL, now that Brady is coming back from surgery. I don’t even know what to say about Adrian Peterson. He is just so damn freakishly good. If he stays healthy all season, I think he runs for 1700 yards minimum. His potential to rack up 2,000 yard seasons and break the all-time rushing record is definitely there. (And I hope he does it, because Emmitt Smith is a disgrace). His combination of speed and strength and shiftiness and vision and balance and evasiveness and acceleration and …WOW he’s is just so damn good. He’s the closest thing to a LeBron James in the NFL – an athletic freak who is just so, so good at what he does that it’s not even fair.

With all that being said, the Vikings offense still isn’t that great. Sure, Peterson has a super back-up in Chester Taylor and one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. Sure, the Vikings have far-and-away the best running game in the league. You need to be able to throw the ball to score touchdowns and win games in the NFL, and last year it’s no coincidence that the Vikings kicked more field goals than almost any other team. Teams could key in on the run and force Tavaris Jackson to make a throw, and more often than not, that’s a bad thing for Minnesota. Snagging Sage Rosenfels from Houston was a good idea, because he’s certain to be better than Tavaris, but if he is NFL-starter material is yet to be seen. Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, and rookie Percy Harvin are certainly not the best WR group in the NFL, but they’re not horrible. Berrian is lightning fast. And Harvin’s skills as a runner have the Vikings practicing the trendy Wildcat formation which could be interesting to see in the smash-mouth NFC North.

On defense the Vikings may have the only NFC pass rusher who is better than the Packer’s Aaron Kampman, and that is of course Jared Allen. What helps Allen out so much is being right next to the most intimidating set of defensive tackles: Kevin and Pat Williams. No offensive line can afford to double team Allen or they risk letting one of the Williams’ flatten the center and get right to the quarterback. No team can run up the middle against the Vikings, although many teams tried, and this enables the linebackers to take chances in coverage and block off outside running lanes. It’s tough to do much of anything against a defense like Minnesota’s, but their one weakness is against the pass. They gave up a ton of big plays and passing yards last season and many teams just skipped trying to run altogether. This season could be more of the same.

Before we get to the final team in the NFC (The Lions!), we need to address the one story that just won’t go away. The never-ending saga of Brett Favre. His potential un-retirement is the biggest story in the NFC North for two reasons: one, the Vikings obviously need a better quarterback; and two, the Packers need something to really motivate them. By coming back to play for the team that was his hated rival for so long, Favre is threatening to stir up emotions in the NFC North in such a major way that it would create the best rivalry in the NFL, at least for the 2009 season. The impact he would have on the Vikings is obvious: Tavaris Jackson is not a great passer and Sage Rosenfels is not ideal either. Neither guy gives them the passing threat that they need, someone who can make a few plays a game from the quarterback position, despite having a pretty weak receiving corps. They don’t need much from the QB spot, with the dominating running game that they have. But when teams focus on AP and force them to pass, they need someone who can make a play or two. That someone could be Brett Favre, and I shudder to think of how successful that team could be. Repeat: Could be. (There’s no guarantee that Favre wouldn’t stink it up with his 40-year old arm.)

But the less obvious effect of Brett Favre Comeback II would be on the Green Bay Packers, who would be playing every game of the season with a humungous chip on their shoulder. More like one of those giant pretzels from the mall on their shoulder. But a pretzel filled with hatred and revenge, instead of cheese. Okay that analogy sucks. Let me try another one.

Imagine that the United States of America had a President who absolutely everyone loved. (Impossible, I know). He kept getting re-elected, and we changed the Constitution so he could remain President for 16 wonderful years. Everyone was happy and prosperous, and America adored him. He kept thinking about retiring, but decided to stay President year after year and we loved him all the more. Finally, he called it quits after cementing himself as the greatest President in our history, and we cried a little bit at the news of his retirement. But we moved on, and elected a new President. Then, suddenly the old President wanted back in the White House, and we had to say to our former hero: “Sorry, as much as we love you, we have a new leader now. You’ll have to stay retired.” So he gave America the middle finger, moved to France, and joined their government. And if that wasn’t bad enough, now he is seriously considering moving to Pakistan and joining the Taliban, and there is nothing we can do to stop him. He wants to spend the next year plotting terrorist attacks against America, killing innocent citizens and living in a cave. It may sound like a hypothetical situation, but it’s exactly what the Green Bay Packers are facing in the 2009 season. Favre is, of course, the President; the Jets are France, and Aaron Rodgers is the new President. And to Packers fans, the Vikings might even be worse the Taliban.

So what do the Packers do if Favre does un-retire and play for the Vikings? How does Rodgers play differently? Isn’t it safe to say that our efforts to bomb and destroy the Middle East would at least QUADRUPLE if we knew that Bill Clinton was over there fighting against us? If George W. Bush suddenly became an international terrorist, wouldn’t be spend more resources catching and killing him than we ever have before? Of course we would.

Football is all about intangibles, as much as people want to make it about X’s and O’s. It’s about motivation and actually giving a crap. No force could motivate the Packers more than to see their former glorious leader suited up as a Purple People Eater. That’s why I am willing to pick the Pack as the NFC North division winners. If Favre does not play, I don’t think Minnesota has enough offense to win the division again and Green Bay takes the North. If Favre does play, it certainly improves the Vikes chances of succeeding, especially in the post-season, but I believe it gives the Packers an extra motivation to win the division.


(Favre does not play):
GB– 32%
CHI– 30%
MIN – 27%
DET – 11%

(Favre does play):
GB – 35%
MIN – 33%
CHI – 23%
DET – 9%

What are the chances that Favre does play this year? Probably around 65% if I had to guess. So given that, I say the Packers have the best chance of winning the division, and the Vikings are a narrow second. By the way, it would not shock me one bit if the Lions did NOT finish in last place. As bad as the Lions notoriously are against AFC foes, we always battle well within the division; in fact of last year’s six games, I think at least four of them we could-have, should-have won. I don’t know if it will be the Bears or the Vikings or maybe even the Packers, but my guess is one of the teams in the North has a total flop of a season and the Lions slip out of last place. My secret guess is the Vikings, because Peterson’s chances of a serious injury are at least 25%.






So, to recap, the Eagles, Falcons, 49ers, and Packers will be winning their divisions. My wildcard teams are the Redskins and the Saints. Coming out of the NFC and losing the Super Bowl to the Patriots will be… The Eagles.

Now, on to the NFC Pro Bowl:

QB: Drew Brees; Aaron Rodgers; Donovan McNabb

RB: Adrian Peterson; Frank Gore; Brian Westbrook

WR: Calvin Johnson; Larry Fitzgerald; Greg Jennings; Marques Colston

TE: Jason Witten; Vernon Davis


NFC MVP: Adrian Peterson

NFC Rookies of the Year:
Offense - Michael Crabtree, SF
Defense - Clay Matthews - GB

NFC Coach of the Year: Mike Singletary, SF


And to bring this all to a close, how ‘bout a few random thoughts about the Detroit Lions.

Quarterback: Culpepper will start the season, play five or six weeks, then Stafford will play the rest of the way. Daunte’s record: 3-3; Matty’s record: 2-8.

Running back: Kevin Smith will not disappoint in his second season, will surpass 1,000 yards easily and finish with about 1300 yards and 13 TDs.

Calvin Johnson: Megatron will lead the NFL in receiving yards (1450) and touchdowns (18) and leave no question who the best receiver in the NFL is.

Other WRs: Culpepper will enjoy throwing to Ronald Curry and Bryant Johnson, but later in the season Stafford will develop a nice rapport with rookie Derrick Williams that has Lions fans excited for 2010.

Tight End: Brandon Pettigrew will be a gigantic disappointment as a receiving threat, and will record only about 20 catches for 180 yards and no touchdowns. He will be a really good blocker, however; unfortunately, no one will notice. Except Kevin Smith.

Offensive Line: Solid play from Raiola, but that’s about it. Backus is frustrated by all the talk about replacing him and plays his worst year yet. Cherilus does terribly as a pass blocker but well as a run blocker. The guards go mostly unnoticed as usual, but play bad enough to warrant being replaced in 2010.

Defensive Line: Grady Jackson plays well as a run stopper, Dewayne White loses playing time to Cliff Avril who plays pretty well, and Jared DeVries is his usual mediocre self.

Linebackers: Peterson and Foote’s arrivals allow Sims to play within his position and be dominant. Peterson shows Seattle that they were stupid to get rid of him, but Foote makes the Steelers realize that they were smart to let him go because he’s really not that great.

Cornerbacks: Phillip Buchanan picks off five passes and Anthony Henry plays pretty well too. Big improvement over last year.

Safeties: It takes eight weeks for the coaches to realize that Louis Delmas should start at FS, and when he gets in there it turns the defense around. Pearson plays all year at SS and does nothing special.

K/P: Hanson is solid but misses a few easy ones, and Nick Harris gets to punt even more than last year.

Record: 5-11.