Lions 18, Colts 17.

Thoughts and Reactions to the Lions Third Preseason Game:

The Lions third preseason game against the Colts was a good one. Lions won, 18-17, thanks to a gutsy 2-point conversion late in the fourth quarter. I was actually able to watch this game from start to finish, which was great. To make my analysis more professional and thorough, I even took a few notes during the game so I wouldn’t forget all the little details. Unfortunately my notes got washed in the pockets of my shorts. That’s okay, I didn’t really need them anyway.

Let’s start with some thoughts and observations about the offense:

-Culpepper: 7-12, 67 yards and 1 TD. Played two offensive drives, both time-consuming with a good mix of run and pass. The first drive was killed by a stupid offensive penalty (more on that later), the second resulted in a TD to Bryant Johnson. Of Daunte’s 12 attempts, five went to running backs, two went to tight ends, and the rest went to Megatron, except the touchdown. Five passes to running backs tells me that Culpepper is going through his reads, not forcing anything, and also playing to the strengths of the offense and exposing the weaknesses of the defense. The Colts have always struggled against short passes, and Kevin Smith is great catching the ball out of the backfield. Culpepper understood that and made the right throws at the right time to move the ball. His accuracy was good, with the exception of one bad overthrow of Fitzsimmons, who was open deep. Daunte’s deep ball isn’t as good as it once one, and is certainly not as good as Stafford’s, but coming off an 0-16 season, the Lions shouldn’t be as worried about big plays as little plays. We just need to limit turnovers, move the ball in short chunks, and sustain drives. That’s why Daunte Culpepper should start week 1.

-Stafford: Not a bad game at all, 13-19, 160 yards, and one meaningless pick with 20 seconds left in the half. Stafford played four drives, and produced only a field goal. Matt also was able to sustain drives and dominate time of possession, but he had more luck that Culpepper did. The Lions also ran the ball a lot more when Stafford was in, especially early. The 37-yard strike to Calvin on 3rd down was the best throw I’ve seen Matt make yet. But not being able to punch the ball in the end zone, after 1st and goal from the 4? That’s terrible. You have a 6’5’’ receiver with amazing hands and unparalleled leaping ability. Score a touchdown.
Other thoughts on Stafford:
-He’s a gunslinger. He trusts his arm more than any Lions QB I’ve seen in a long, long time and tries to squeeze the ball into tight coverage. That’s an okay thing if you’re a smart quarterback, but if the defense can read your mind like an open book, you’re going to throw a ton of picks. If Stafford starts from week 1, it’s going to be close to a 20 INT season.
-He’s a rookie. He looks and plays like a rookie. His pocket presence is very unnatural. He doesn’t read defenses well or go through his options before passing. He doesn’t look the safety off. He looks a bit overwhelmed by the speed of the defense. It’s okay to be a rookie, but Stafford is definitely a rookie.
-He’s a brat. Twice I saw him berate teammates on the open field for dropping balls or running the wrong routes. Maybe it was their fault, maybe not. Either way, you don’t act like that. Show some leadership and confidence in your teammates. Just because you have $72 million dollars doesn’t mean you don’t make mistakes. Not cool.

-Drew Henson played another great game, but he’s the #3 quarterback, so I’m not really excited or concerned. As for the rest of the offense …

-Scott Linehan likes to call a lot of play-action. With the running game actually somewhat effective, the play-action was working. I noticed that Culpepper ran it better than Stafford; he looked more natural, more believable on the fake and more composed in a less steady pocket. Stafford’s fake handoff looks like a mini-seizure. Did you see the one play where he fake handed-off to his right, while Morris stood to his left, looking at him like “You idiot, what are you doing!” That was super funny. Except for the 15 yard sack.

-What can be said about the offensive line? They created a pocket and gave all three quarterbacks time to pass. They were great! Superb in the screen passing game, picking up blitzes, and they even had a push in the running game. It should be noted that the Colts defensive line isn’t great, but still, progress is progress. Except for a few idiotic penalties, namely by against Cherilus and Rameriz, the offensive line played a near flawless game.

-Calvin Johnson is simply amazing. Amazing, amazing, amazing.

-Pettigrew! He finally played, and he didn’t disappoint me at all. He only caught 2 passes for 24 yards, but I loved watching him block. He’s huge and strong and overpowering. Hall of Fame tight end Charlie Sanders talked about Pettigrew’s play from the sideline during the telecast, and sounded sincerely impressed. He said that Pettigrew has the natural, unteachable feel-for-the-game and makes the right moves after he catches the ball. True. But mostly, I loved watching him block. He’s a beast.

-Bryant Johnson, the Lions #2 receiver behind Calvin, only caught the one pass for the TD. A bunch of other dodo WRs caught passes here and there, but the impressive guy was rookie Derrick Williams. He’s fast and elusive (hence, he’s a kick returner), but he also showed good hands and smart route running. I don’t know why Dennis Northcutt hasn’t played yet or what he’s waiting for, but he may have some competition for the #3/slot role. Williams is faster and has a better chance of breaking a big play. But Northcutt has NFL experience and crisper route running ability. We’ll see what happens.

-As for the rest of the WRs, some guys will need to be cut. Between Jennings, Standeford, Colbert, Boldin, Looker and Gronkowski, only one or two will make the team as receivers. Looker and Jennings have been the two most deserving in my estimation, but I’d like to keep D.J. Boldin around (Anquan’s little brother) just to see what he can do. Colbert must be cut - he's horrible. Not sure where any of these guys factor into special teams.

-Tight ends and running backs will also need to be cut soon. Maurice Morris will be the #2 RB, even though he played slow and boring compared to lightning-fast rookie Aaron Brown, who is so fun to watch. While Morris will probably spell Kevin Smith and see around 20% of the carries, Brown will be the “change-of-pace” back who tries to bust a big play with his speed. That guy is seriously FAST. Sort of a Jerious Norwood or Leon Washington type of player. Avion Cason and Brian Calhoun are old news and I wish them well on their job search in the coming weeks. As for tight ends, I don’t know who will be after Pettigrew, but it really won’t matter unless Brandon suffers an injury. Personally, I’d prefer to cut Fitzsimmons and anyone else who reminds me of going 0-16.

-What’s up with all the jumbo packages? Desmond Howard wouldn’t stop talking about how much he loved the jumbo package. In case you’re wondering, what I’m referring to is when two fullbacks –namely, Jermone Felton and Terrelle Smith- are lined up in the backfield. The Lions love Felton’s running ability, and for good reason. He was sweet against the Browns and for the early part of the Colts game. But then we got down to the 9 yard line and gave Felton the ball four times in a row. No touchdown. No touchdown. No gain. No gain. If a fullback can’t punch the ball into the end zone from the 9 yard line on four attempts, then he becomes simply a blocker. The jumbo package may be officially dead after that failure.

-Speaking of that sequence of plays, yes, I liked the risk by Coach Schwartz to go for it on 4th and 1. But do you know what the clinical definition of “idiot” is? Quote: “Someone who repeats a course of action but expects different results.” I’m not making that up. Give the ball to Felton FOUR PLAYS in a row, and get stuffed FOUR TIMES. Come on Coach, how about some play-action? A QB-rollout, a jump ball, or at least a pitch? Lack of creativity has always been a mainstay of Lions coaches. Not sure if that was Schwartz or Linehan’s decision, but either way, it was idiotic. Literally.

-I haven’t said enough about Kevin Smith yet. He played well, his best game of the preseason for sure. He was only on the field for two drives (perhaps an inclination that Culpepper is closing in on the starting job?), but he made the most of his time with 8 carries and 3 receptions for a total of 83 yards. Smith looked terrific on some plays and anemic on others. He was no where near as bad as last week. The thing about Kevin Smith is this: he has very specific strengths and weaknesses. He’s not good up the middle. He’s good in the open field. He’s good at following blockers. He’s not good at creating his own play. He’s not very fast. He’s difficult to tackle in the open field. He’s easy to tackle in the backfield. He’s a great receiver on screens. He’s not good at going between the guards. Do you see the pattern? He’s an ideal fit for a zone-blocking scheme, but that’s about it. The million-dollar question is: will Scott Linehan stick with the zone-blocking scheme, even though it sucked last year, or are they going to try to force Smith to be something he’s not? Will they tailor the play-calling to his strengths, or delude themselves into believing that he has no weaknesses? I hope they are smart, but it seems more typical of Lions’ coaching staff to be prideful and ignorant. My fear is that we’re going to see Kevin Smith up the middle 15 times a game, all season long, and fans are going to start saying things like “Smith sucks, he just gets tackled by the first guy every time” and “Why does he have to run right into the line and fall down like that?” but really, it’s going to be Linehan’s fault. Smith needs to run counter plays and draws, he needs a pulling guard and a lead fullback and he works really well in the short passing game. Plunge and smash plays aren’t going to work with him. He’s not Adrian Peterson, he’s Kevin Smith. That’s why he wasn’t drafted until the third round. He’s a certain kind of running back who needs to play a certain style. He’s kind of needy. But you know what, with the addition of Pettigrew’s blocking ability, I think the zone-blocking scheme is still worth another try. Smith looked really good on some plays Saturday. There was the 24-yard run off left-tackle, the 10-yard completion on third and 9, and the 19-yard completion a few plays later. He ran well on the outsides, and quite poorly up the middle. I like Kevin Smith, but I don’t love him.

-Considering the Colts played without their star defensive player Bob Sanders and don’t have a great defense in the first place (the only team that allowed more passing yards last season than the Colts was … you guessed it, the Lions), let’s not get too excited about the 412 total yards of offense. True, the offensive numbers look beautiful: third downs were 60% and we sustained long drives while dominating time of possession, but it was the Colts without Bob Sanders. It wasn’t the Vikings, Bears or Packers. It wasn’t even the Browns. BUT, I’ll try not to be too much of a downer, and I’ll just say this about the offense: Go Daunte!

Before I talk about the defense, how about a few words about the special teams:

Awful. Pathetic. Fire Stan Kwon. BOO!

Now, the defense…

-The first drive of the game was a nightmare. Peyton Manning had his way, marched down the field and threw a touchdown like he was bored out of his mind. HOWEVER, that 36-yard penalty on Williams James for pass interference was very questionable. In fact I might even call it bull crap. So if we allowed a touchdown to one of the best QBs of all time by virtue of a 40 yard fluke penalty, I think I’m okay with that.

-After that drive, the Lions clamped down and held #18 to nothing on the next possession. Foote and Peterson were everywhere in the first quarter, making just about every tackle. So it was fitting on 3rd and 5 when Gunther Cunningham sent Peterson on a blitz, which the Colts anticipated and picked up. But Foote trailed a step behind him, which the Colts did not expect, and Manning fell to the ground without being touched. He sacked himself. He knew he was going to be hit, so he simply laid down. That may have been the best defensive play of the game for the Lions. The perfect play-call, perfect execution and a perfect result on third down.

-I should be happy that the Lions stuffed the Colts running game to just 3 yards in the first half (Coach Schwartz certainly was), but I don’t think it was a big deal, for the following two reasons: one, Joseph Addai is terrible. He’s slow, and he stinks. And two, Peyton Manning passed the ball on almost every play. The Colts only ran the ball five times. But, five times for 3 yards – that is pretty good run defense.

-In the second half, it was more like what you would expect, with the Lions giving up 47 yards on the ground. But considering that Donald Brown, who ran 5 times for only 16 yards, is an explosive back with great speed, and the Lions didn’t surrender a 60-yard TD run, we should call that major progress. To be frankly honest, the tackling was solid on Saturday. Gunther Cunningham preached the importance of sound tackling all week in practice, and it actually seemed to pay off. The Colts gained an average of only 2.6 yards per running play. That’s terrific defense. Way to go Lions.

-To be fair, the Lions got lucky in the second quarter, when Anthony Gonzalez dropped a perfect pass on the right sideline that would have gone for a 35 or 40 yard gain, if not more. Stupid Gonzalez is on my fantasy team, so he better catch that in the regular season. Hopefully Manning will still be willing to throw to him. But I’m glad he dropped it against the Lions. But let’s be honest, that was lucky; we dodged a bullet there. It would have been 14-10 Colts at halftime instead of 10-7 Lions.

-Louis Delmas did not have the dominant performance I was hoping for. He was a step slow and looked like he was more interested in making a big hit than defending the pass. But, as a safety, Delmas’s job is to read the play quickly and react. Against Peyton Manning, that’s virtually impossible. You have to be Troy Polamalu to do that against Manning. Seriously, no other safety is smart enough to guess what Manning is going to do. Delmas will fare better against less cerebral quarterbacks, which is to say, all other NFL quarterbacks. I’m not worried about the off-night.

-Unfortunately, we face Drew Brees in week one. That’s not going to be fun for anyone on the defense.

-The Lions have never been able to stop tight ends. Dallas Clark was everywhere. Fortunately, we won’t play against a TE as good as Clark all season. In fact Chris Cooley and Greg Olsen are the only real pass-catching threats we face all year. Of course, I say that now, but Jeremy “The Biggest Ass in the World” Shockey will probably light up the Lions for 4 touchdowns.

-The defensive line didn’t do much. No pass rush. They stuffed the run pretty darn well, though, as I said earlier.

-At least Phil Buchanan didn’t get burned. The secondary actually held their own against Peyton, who probably wasn’t trying as hard as he could. Anthony Henry looked like a real cornerback. Williams James made a few great plays, but also some crappy plays. The penalty that set up the Colts first touchdown was detrimental, but I think the coaching staff will see on the tape that the call was questionable. In short, I don’t think it hurts James’s chances of making the team. I like him as a #4 CB.

-Backup safety Marquand Manuel caught a pick in the fourth quarter that bounced off some reserve receiver's hands and went fifty feet in the air. It was a pretty easy pick. Manuel also had a few tackles and seemed to gravitate toward the ball, which is a good sign for someone who plays safety. The starting job opposite Delmas is still open to competition, and while Manuel’s interception stands out on the stat sheet, his play was pretty solid throughout. But let's be honest, he ain't gonna start. It's probably gonna be Pearson. Boo.

-Cliff Avril is a stud. With Jared DeVries’s season-ending injury, Avril now has a chance to start all 16 games and rack up the sacks. Avril, similar to many other Lions players, does some things very well and other things very poorly. But rushing the passer he does well, and we need that badly.

-Speaking of studs, DeAndre Freaking Levy! Who is this guy, where did he come from? The dude is unbelievable. I couldn’t tell if that was Levy or Ernie Sims in the second half. He was everywhere, making every tackle and breaking up passes too. He’s capable of playing all three LBs positions, which shows that not only is he a physical monster but also very smart. If any of the three starting linebackers are injured, Levy is the guy I hope fills in.

-The Colts backup quarterback was a tool. So when the defense played quite well in the second half, it wasn’t a huge deal to me.

I’m getting excited for the regular season. Excited, but also very nervous. One more preseason game coming up against the Bills, and still a lot of work to do. Players to cut and decisions to make. A quarterback to choose. A team to inspire. A city to save.

Man, I didn’t mean for that to be so poetic at the end. It just kind of happened.

thoughts on preseason game #2

hey guys ... the lions just finished getting whooped by the browns in preseason game #2. 27-10 was the final. i was able to watch the 1st half and most of the 4th quarter, thanks to the game being on fox instead of stupid nfl network. here are my initial thoughts:

-stafford was horrible. he started the game, and his first pass was a telegraphed interception. a horrible throw. he looks uncomfortable when he rolls out, he can't throw on the move. even when he had time, he still rushed his throws and didnt go through his reads. a couple bad throws, two to standeford, and one bomb to jennings that was a touchdown if he didnt overthrow him by 5 yards. stafford looks joey-ish; too skidish in the pocket, and just had unconfidence all over his face. horrible, horrible performance. i think part of his struggles were because hes never faced a 3-4 defense before. he wasnt used to the extra LB in coverage and the different looks in short coverage. when he went deep he just missed the throw. not a good sign, because we play 7 games against 3-4 defenses this season, including 2 against the pack. stafford better start looking at gametape instead of partying with bikini babes.

-on a more positive note, daunte culpepper and drew stanton looked great tonight. Culp definitely did we he had to do to earn the starting job for week 1, which is what im hoping for. stanton is too good to be a #3 qb. he's untraditional with all his scrambling around, but he gets the job done, and on third and long he actually tries to get the first down, instead of settling for 3 yards on 3rd and 10 (stafford did that about 4 times).

-you know who else looked good tonight? The offensive line! No joke. we didn't give up any sacks, and in the second quarter they gave daunte all kinds of time to go through reads and find the open guy. yeah, the browns dont offer much of a pass rush, but still, it was good to see. Daniel Loper started at LG and him and backus seemed to have a good chemistry. cherilus actually looked good in pass protection too. the running game was lacking, especially with kevin smith, who looked really, really slow. did rudi johnson sneak onto the field in a 34 jersey? that's what it looked like. jerome felton, the fullback, was our only threat running the ball. but how great was it to see the O-line was protecting the quarterback! The TEs and RBs were picking up the extra blitzer in the 3-4, and that's especially impressive considering no Pettigrew tonight.

-speaking of rookies, Louis Delmas made his debut tonight and had a few big hits and looked sharp. he gets to the ball fast. after only watching a few defensive sequences with the #1 defense on the field, there's no question that Delmas is already the best player in the Lions' secondary. Buchanon looked downright horrible; he's going to be one of the weakest links on the team this year. the browns picked on him all first half. anthony henry looked bad too; he can't cover anyone, but at least he can tackle. delmas looked really good.

-there were three standouts on defense: Ernie Sims, Cliff Avril, and DeAndre Levy. Sims is no surprise, but he really did play awesome in the first half. he was running down the ballcarrier from all over the field. Levy was doing the same in the fourth Q, and definitely earning his spot on the team. Avril entered the game after a few serieses on D, and made an immediate impact. it wasn't until his first play on defense that we actually rushed the passer, and he forced anderson to hurry a third-down pass and the browns had to kick. Avril was repeatedly pressuring both anderson and quinn, and that's most impressive considering he was lined up against pro bowl LT joe thomas, who is about 4 inches and 40 pounds bigger than Cliff. Avril had all the moves going, inside, outside, spinning, swimming, anything to get to the QB, and it was nice to see him pull that against one of the best offensive lineman in the nfl. He could really rack up some sacks, being in the nfc north.

-what's up with dane looker? dude had about 15 receptions. culpepper kept finding him on the right sideline; about five plays daunte rolled right, waited, and hit looker right at the sideline. he's a solid, albiet slow, possesion receiver. might give northcutt a run for his money. speaking of northcutt, where is he? is he hurt?

-considering calvin and pettigrew didn't play, im not too worried about the anemic lions offense yet. but kevin smith has got to be able to get around the corner; he was SO slow tonight, getting pulled down by the d-line on every carry. trying to run around the tackles and he couldnt make it out of the backfield.

-special teams were TERRIBLE!! stan kwon, what is going on? the browns return the opening kick 100 yards (called back for holding), then return a punt 80 yards five minutes later, and run a few other ones back for 10 or 20 yards. we were penalized on it seemed like every special teams play. what the heck? look, it seems like you can pick and choose your battle on special teams: either play conservatively, don't get penalized and don't fumble, or take a gamble and try to make a big play. how do we get called for holding, AND only run the kickoff back to the 18 yard line?? it's absurd. absolutely horrible special teams. it was the only thing worse than stafford's performance.

-speaking of horrible, did you see jim schwartz? what was the deal with his untucked, wrinkly shirt? was that a shirt, or a lab coat? he had on a white, wrinkly, XXXL shirt down to his knees. tuck your shirt in man, youre a head coach. he looked so sloppy and unprofessional. he needed to shave as well. he looked embarassing. also the khakis didnt match his shirt. i'm no fashion critic, not even close, but come on; if you saw him you know what i'm talking about. coaches have to look sharp; he looked like a slob.

-last but not least, i'd just like to reiterate how bad matt stafford was in the first quarter. he could have easily had zero completions tonight, except for the fact that on third downs he settled for 3 yard dumps that the browns gave him. he couldn't do anything at all against that defense, and they weren't even putting pressure on him. he wasn't accurate, he forced throws into coverage, and he locked into one target the whole play, which led to the pick. that happened last game, and it happened this game. he's forming a trend and i don't like it. if he starts week 1 and plays all season, i'll guarantee you he's going to lead the nfl in interceptions. ...wait, brett favre is back in the league, never mind.

Stiff stafford looked just as bad off the field as he looked on it. bored, uninterested, he had the same stupid doverwhelmed look that joey harrington had mastered. his eyes said "i just want to go home and be with my beer keg." grow up matthew, its time to earn your $72 million! you were horrible tonight!

--Lessons Learned from preseason game 2:

-daunte is a step closer to being named the Regular Season starter
-we need calvin johnson. desperately.
-the defense has a few good players, but a few gaping holes.
-one of those holes is phillip buchanon, who is quickly becoming my personal least favorite player on the lions. he's going to be a major liability all season long.
-maybe jim schwartz isn't such a great coach after all.

-don't panic. it's only the preseason. it doesn't matter.



*fantasy football draft is tomorrow. im picking 12th for the second year in a row. damn it.

poem

A Purple Favre
An original poem by David Morgan


A Circus, a scandal, an utter outrage
A gray-bearded man, thirty-nine years of age
Signed by the Vikings for an eight-figure wage
I feel really bad for Tarvaris and Sage;

12 million bucks to hand off to AP
And throw a few picks - how hard can that be?
Indecisiveness leads to idiocy
Favre is a Viking; how can this be?

Sixteen years as a Packer and one as a Jet,
Retirement led him to total regret
We thought he was finished, but he wasn’t done yet!
What in the world are you thinking, Brett?

We knew this was coming, but I’m still surprised
His dignity and loyalty are now compromised,
The media is making this so sensationalized
From hero to villain, from loved to despised

Retire, unretire, it’s become a routine
This whole situation is completely obscene
Favre’s wearing purple, he should be in green!
The man who loves Wranglers: Real. Comfortable. Jeans.

NFL Season Preview: August Edition

I've written this over the past two and a half days at work... as such, it lacks the continuity and cohesiveness of some of my finer work, but I still took the time to scribble these thoughts, so I may as well post them: (Note: I wrote this all prior to the Favre-mania that ensued yesterday)


So back in May I wrote a huge NFL Preview, breaking down each division and each team, each offense and each defense, and going out on several limbs with some bold and unorthodox predictions. Some of those calls I stand by, but many of them were ill-founded or rushed into. A lot has changed since May; injuries, position battles, and coaching philosophies have made a lot of things clearer. The only certainty in the NFL is that there is no certainty; who could have predicted the Dolphins and Falcons to make the playoffs last season, or Tom Brady's fatal injury? Things never really lived up to their expectations last year, or the year before, or really any year that I can think of. Why should it be any different in 2009? By picking the same 12 teams to make the playoffs, wouldn't I be guaranteeing myself to be incorrect? You have to go out on a few limbs, otherwise you have no chance of being right; the tough part is knowing which limbs to go out on, and which limbs to stay off.

Let's start with the AFC and then the NFC. First, the AFC East.

One of the few certainties is that if Tom Brady plays a healthy 16 game season, the Patriots win the division. He's a living legend, a Hall of Fame player in his prime, and he plays alongside a great coach, great receivers and a real good defense. 16-0 is their ceiling; 11 games is their basement. The difference will be the play of their young defenders; how will Mayo, Merriweather, and Pat Chung respond to increased pressure? Offensively, the only nagging question is if the offense will lose a step at all due to the absence of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. I'll give you the answer now: No, they'll be just fine. Remember when “offensive genius” Charlie Weis left for Notre Dame? They were pretty good after that, yeah? As long as Brady remains under center, they will be scoring plenty of points. Patriots' Record - 13-3.

The rest of the AFC East is tricky: any one of the three is a threat for the Wildcard, but they all have major weaknesses. All three teams have a less than ideal quarterback situation, and are better on defense than they are on offense.

The best defense in the group belongs to the Jets and new coach Rex Ryan, who brings along a few of his old Raven defenders and his nasty blitzing reputation. In all Ryan's Baltimore days, he never had a shutdown cornerback as good as Darelle Revis, or a DT quite like Kris Jenkins, so he's going to have some fun scheming and imposing his will against offenses. Of course, the Jets don't have anyone who rivals Ray Lewis or Ed Reed, so maybe it won't be as fun for Ryan as he hopes. His real challenge is going to be on the offensive end, where coordinator Brian Schottenhiemer will be responsible for the play-calling and the development of Mark Sanchez. Ryan wants to employ the "three-headed RB" tactic that was used in Baltimore last year; it drives fantasy owners nuts, but it is effective. Thomas Jones will probably lead the team in carries (McGahee), Leon Washington will see the third downs (Ray Rice) and rookie Shonn Greene probably gets the goal-line work (McClain) and a few extra carries per game. The Jets have the benefit of a great offensive line -one of the best in the NFL- and a great fullback, so running the ball should come easy for all three RBs. They don't have much at receiver, but they don't need much; David Clowney is a sleeper I like to be the #2 WR of the Jets and maybe even pass up Cotchery as the #1. The Jets coaching staff love his speed and big-play ability. I actually think Sanchez wins the starting job, and does a Joe Flacco-like performance leading his team to a Wildcard berth. He has the same things Flacco had: great defense, great offensive line, great running game. And therefore no need to pass the ball too much. Jets- 10-6.

The Bills and Dolphins are close behind the Jets, and very close to each other. Both teams have lots of talent on the defensive end (the Bills have more), but neither has enough to be a dominant unit. The Bills have a huge advantage at wide receiver: Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, whereas the Fins have close to nothing. But the Bills also have one of the shakiest offensive lines in the NFL, which could spell major trouble. If Trent Edwards can't throw the ball when and where he wants to, that means an unhappy TO, which means a major headache for Buffalo. What the Bills need is for their running game - Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch - to occupy the defense enough to let TO and Evans run deep and create some plays. Without a solid offensive line, this is unlikely. The Bills seem destined to stay under .500 unless their offensive line miraculously is healed. Prediction - 7-9.

Miami was the most surprising team in the NFL last year, going from 1 win to 10 wins. Maybe they'll keep it up and win 19 this year. Nah, most likely they'll drop down at least a few games in the win column. They should be happy with 7 wins with the lack of talent that they have. But having been to the playoffs, Miami isn't going to settle for mediocrity, which may be their biggest advantage. On defense, they have Joey Porter but not a whole lot else. The defensive line struggles against the run. On offense, the Dolphins have the opposite problem as the Bills: great offensive line, but no playmakers. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are a decent, but not great, 1-2 punch, but Miami’s wide receiver corps is seriously lacking. With Chad Pennington at QB though, that's not necessarily disastrous. He lacks the arm strength to throw deep anyway, and prefers to dump off short passes to tight ends and slot guys. No one on Miami is a real fantasy threat, although Ronnie Brown might be able to distance himself from stupid Ricky Williams and put up some real good stats behind Jake Long and that offensive line. I see the Dolphins finishing with a 6-10 record.

NE: 13-3
NYJ: 10-6
BUF: 7-9
MIA: 6-10


The AFC North is, at first glance, very uninteresting. The Steelers have a great team, the Ravens are okay, and the Browns and Bengals suck. At least that's what I thought a few months ago. For the most part, that is all true, but there are two major wildcards I may have overlooked: Carson Palmer, and Joe Flacco. It's easy to write off Flacco as a one-year wonder, because I didn't see anything star-worthy when I watched him last season. (As opposed to Matt Ryan, who is positively beaming with star quality). Flacco has lousy receivers and a weak offense, and was led to the playoffs by a great defense. I wrote off the Ravens as a dying bird and not a playoff threat, but maybe I underestimated Flacco's leadership and moxie. We shall see. Palmer, on the other hand, I definitely did underestimate. I simply forgot how good the guy is. When healthy, he made Pro Bowls and threw for great numbers and won plenty of games. He even made an ass clown like Chad Johnson look good. Now he has Laverneaus Coles and Chris Henry along with Ochostinko, and even without any semblance of a defense that may be good enough to lead the Bengals out of the basement. As for the Browns, well, they still suck.

The Steelers probably won't win as many games as I originally thought; their divisional games may not be a cake walk and the running game is in a state of confusion. Willie Parker's contract is about to expire but the team has no plans to re-sign him, so what motivation does he have to play for them? Meanwhile, Rashard Mendenhall, the man they hope will replace Willie, is playing like garbage in camp and has not fully recovered from last year's injury. He can’t even secure the backup job. Is Mewelde Moore the guy they want to platoon with Parker? Will they force Rashard onto the field too early? Remember, the Steelers only have one weakness, and it’s their below-average offensive line. They have to make sure they don't do anything Rasharded (get it?) with their running game, or they could be in trouble. Defensively, they'll be great. Offensively, I think they take a step back. Record 11-5.

I actually like the Bengals over the Ravens for second place, simply because Palmer is healthy and he is much better than Flacco (or Quinn). He also has the best receivers to work with. The Bengals defense is painfully bad; however they have some young pieces assembled and some good players coming off of injuries, so they have an outside chance at turning a corner from terrible to mediocre. If they do that and the offense clicks, they might, just might, sniff the playoffs. But that's a lot of ifs. Bengals record- 8-8.

The Ravens will probably finish very close behind the Bengals, if not tied with them. Their defense is too good, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are too good, to keep them under 7 wins. A lot of pressure on Flacco to lead the offense. He needs more help. Prediction- 7-9.

I want to give the Browns the benefit of the doubt, because they do have some promising players. But they are going through too much transition: new coach, QB controversy, makeshift defense, aging running back, rookie receiver... They don't have much promise on either side of the ball, and even if Quinn wins the QB job convincingly and plays well, he still won't be able to lead them to any more than 7 wins; that's their ceiling. To do that, he'll need Braylon to play well, Robiskie to jump in right away as an effective possession receiver, and someone, whether Jamal Lewis or Jerome Harrison, to make some plays at running back. Unlikely. Browns- 4-12.

PIT: 11-5
CIN: 8-8
BAL: 7-9
CLE: 4-12

The AFC South is a lot like the AFC East; Peyton Manning controls what happens, much like Tom Brady, and his team cruises to a division title. The other three teams are all scrapping for a wildcard spot.

The Colts have more than just Peyton Manning; like the Patriots, they also have great receivers and a pretty good defense. (I think Anthony Gonzalez might actually look a lot like Wes Welker this year). Tony Dungy's absence will certainly sting, but offensive coordinator Tom Moore knows what he's doing and the offense will be just fine. It's the defense that worries me; without the Tampa 2 architect (Dungy), will the Colts still effectively run his defense? If both Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney play healthy all season, the entire defense should be okay. Prediction - 12-4.


I don't even remember what I wrote about Jacksonville a few months ago, but at this point in the season, I'm excited about a big bounce-back season from them. The best part is, everyone used to love to pick them as a sleeper for the playoffs, then they had one off-year, and now everyone's ready to throw them under the bus. But not me. I like them to have a rebound year, for a number of reasons. It starts with the offensive line - last year it was in shambles, this year it's put back together, plus Eugene Monroe plugs in right away. Behind that O-line is Maurice Jones-Drew, who is one of the best running backs in football, fantasy or real-life. He is dynamic as a receiver and unstoppable near the goal-line, and is a rare power back with good speed and vision. Torry Holt is a good fit for this offense too; at this point in Holt's career, he is a slower possession-type receiver with great hands. That's exactly what David Garrard needs. This offense could really be something. The defense probably won't be a dominant unit, but it also won't be as bad as it was last year. Rashard Mathis is a great corner, very underrated. I'll give the Jags 9 wins.

The AFC South might actually be able to scrounge up both wild cards, partly because the rest of the AFC is lacking and partly because it is such a highly competitive division. I want to say it has replaced the NFC East as the best division in football, due to the departures of Plaxico and TO, but since the AFC South sent Big Al Haynesworth to the Redskins, I can't make that argument. It's close though.

Originally I thought it would be a battle between the Jags and Texans for second place. Now, I see more of a battle between Houston and Tennessee for third. The Titans won't be as bad as I originally thought.

I still like Houston over Tennessee because I don't think the Titans defense will set them apart this year. It will be solid, barely above average. So will Houston's, and the Texans are so much better on the offensive end that they stand a better chance of keeping pace with the rest of the division. Andre Johnson is elite and Steve Slaton is a star on the rise, plus Matt Schaub isn't bad. Houston won't have any trouble putting up points, but they must defend in order to stay above .500 and finally reach the playoffs. They have a few playmakers on defense, but are still lacking something. 7-9.

It looked for a while like Tennessee was considering giving Vince Young his starting job back. That would have doomed them. Smartly, Jeff Fisher has kept old man Kerry Collins under center and is trying to convince the Titans that last year was no fluke by replicating as much of the 2008 plan as possible. They even added two new receivers: Nate Washington and Kenny Britt. Tough to get excited about that. Even if they still had the same roster they had last season, I still wouldn't give them more than 9 wins. But without Haynesworth, I can't see them with a winning record. 6-10.


The AFC West is considered one of the worst divisions in football, and rightfully so. They are an embarrassment to the rest of the AFC. The Chargers battled injuries to just about every player on their team last year, and still won the West with an 8-8 record; they’ll smash that mark to smithereens this year. They know their best chance of finally reaching a Super Bowl is to win in the regular season, and earn home-field advantage in the playoffs. With their creampuff division, I expect the Bolts to come out smoking. Merriman is healthy, Tomlinson and Gates are healthy, Rivers is really good, and Vincent Jackson is about to break out. They're going to go 6-0 in their division, and they have only five tough games on their schedule: against the Steelers and against the NFC East. I believe they go 3-2 in those games and lose only one other, for a 13-3 record, tied for the best in the NFL.

Second place in the division is up for grabs, but it doesn't really matter. I originally liked the Chiefs for an upset Wildcard bid, but I don't trust their defense anymore nor do I trust Matt Cassel in his first real season as a starter. Last year was too easy for him: who could possibly fail in the situation he was in? Now he has lots of pressure on him - $60 million dollars worth of pressure - and it's not going to be nearly as easy for him. Dwayne Bowe is good, but he's no Randy Moss; Bobby Engram is a decent slot guy, but he's no Welker. KC's offensive line is pretty good, but it's nothing like the Patriot's line. In short, the Chiefs aren't the Patriots. Teams that can't run the ball or stop the run are usually going to struggle, and that looks like the story for Kansas City. Oh, and Larry Johnson is an idiot. KC’s record: 6-10.

I'm tempted to pick Oakland over Denver, because I hate both teams and can't see either winning any more than 6 games. Oakland has a great cornerback (Asomugha) and has glimmers of hope on offense (what if Russell, McFadden, and Heyward-Bey all exceed expectations?), but they can't stop the run. Denver has a great cornerback (Bailey) but they also can't stop the run. They have a more settled offense, albeit less flashy. Orton is a boring, solid player; the one thing he has going for him is that he knows he’s the starter, which allows him to really focus and prepare, rather than wonder if he’ll get a chance to play. Orton won't be bad this year; from a statistical standpoint, the whole Bronco offense should produce. Moreno, though he'll split carries with plenty of other folks, will have a nice year, and Royal/Marshall should combine for close to 180 catches and 2000 yards. (I actually like Eddie Royal more than Marshall this year, in both fantasy and real-life.) But a terrible defense and average-at-best quarterback means 5 wins. 5-11 for Denver, 5-11 for Oakland.

To recap:

NE: 13-3
NYJ: 10-6
BUF: 7-9
MIA: 6-10

PIT: 11-5
CIN: 8-8
BAL: 7-9
CLE: 4-12

IND: 12-4
JAX: 9-7
HOU: 7-9
TEN: 6-10

SD: 13-3
KC: 6-10
DEN: 5-11
OAK: 5-11

Wildcards: Jets, Jags

IND def. NYJ
JAX def. PIT

NE def. IND
SD def. JAX

NE def. SD


Moving on to the NFC, let's begin in reverse order, starting with the lowly NFC West.

When I analyzed this division in May, I came up with the 49ers winning it, the Seahawks losing it, and the Cards and Rams in the middle. A lot of things have changed: Shaun Hill has yet to run away with the starting QB job in San Fran; Hasslebeck is looking really good in camp; Boldin appears likely to play without a new contract; and Donnie Avery suffered an ankle injury that could keep him out at least a month.

This division features three new coaches: Jim Mora Jr. in Seattle, Mike Singletary in San Francisco, and Steve Spagnuolo in St. Louis. All three are good coaches. All three want to re-establish the run. Mora is taking over for West Coast extraordinare Mike Holmgren; Singletary has replaced "mad scientist" Mike Martz's pass-happy bull-crap with a conservative run-first coordinator, Jimmy Raye; and Spagnuolo takes over a Rams team with no offensive identity, and all he knows is that giving the ball to Steven Jackson as many times as possible is his best chance of winning.

That's a lot of changing. A lot of new names. And a lot of running the ball. Oh, and Arizona's offensive coordinator is gone, which means Ken Whisenhunt, a former Steelers coordinator, finally has the opportunity to try and bring a litte smash-mouth football to the desert. All four NFC West RBs, Gore, Jackson, Julius Jones, and the Wells/Hightower combo are going to see a lot more action that they saw last year, and are accordingly being undervalued in fantasy drafts. True, none of these teams have good offensive lines, but Seattle's is decent and the Rams got a whole lot better on NFL draft day when they added Jason Smith. The 49ers also added a studly fullback who should help Gore out quite a bit.

I see this division as a battle between the Seahawks and 49ers, and I actually believe Seattle will come out on top. One thing Seattle has always had is a tremendous home-field advantage. Up until last year, they were unbeatable at Qwest Field; in a lousy division where 10-6 can win it, winning your home games is an easy way to a division title. I also underestimated the potential of the Seattle passing offense; if the offensive line holds up and gives Hasslebeck time to look through his reads, he could be quite deadly. Houshmendzadeh, Branch, Burleson, and the tight end Carlson give Hass four solid options to look for. I don't like any of the receivers particularly as a #1 threat, but combined they can create matchup problems for defenses. Perhaps the reason Julius Jones was so putrid last year was Seattle's inability to pass the ball. As defenses have to play more honestly, Jones should have a better season. Seattle's defense isn't going to be wondrous, but they have one of the best linebacking crews in the NFC, led by Aaron Curry, and great linebackers tend to make those around them better. My Seattle prediction: 10-6.

San Fran is going to finish with a record of at least .500, I'm pretty sure of that. However, I don't think they'll be a 10 win team. I don't think they can dominate against anyone. But I think they can eek out a lot of close games with a good defense, a great running back, and a smart coach. If Shaun Hill plays effectively at QB, if Crabtree gets healthy and plays all season, and promising youngster Josh Morgan lives up to the hype, the 49er passing attack might be a dangerous one. Of course that's not all very likely to happen. But at the least, having Frank Gore and Patrick Willis gives San Fran an excellent chance to win this lackluster division. 49ers record, 9-7.

Arizona is coming off a roller-coaster off-season, even though nothing much happened. They lost the Super Bowl (which they had no business even playing in), Larry Fitzgerald became a super-mega-star and graced the cover of every sports magazine, Anquan Boldin got jealous and decided to be a little brat, and Kurt Warner started collecting social security. Meanwhile, the offensive coordinator took a head coaching job elsewhere and the defense remained stagnantly mediocre. Drafting RB Beanie Wells was the one major acquisition, and he might not even start. From the day the Super Bowl ended, I've been convinced that 2009 Arizona is no better than a 7 win team. They don't have the toughness or aggressiveness on defense, and sooner or later defenses are going to figure out how to stop an offense that doesn't run the ball. Either they try to establish Wells as a runner, which takes away from the one thing they do well (pass), or they keep on chucking the ball like maniacs, which gives Fitzgerald a great fantasy season but doesn't help them win games, just like it didn't last year when the only finished 8-8... Either way, they finish 7-9.

It's time to be realistic with the St. Louis Rams. They've burned me a few years in a row. This year they finally have a great coach, or so it seems. They have a fantastic RB and the #2 overall pick at left tackle. But they've still got Marc Bulger and no defense to speak of, and their only NFL-caliber receiver has an injured ankle and will miss all of the preseason, and maybe a couple weeks of the real season. Best case scenario is .500. Rams fans will be happy with 6-10.

On to the NFC South.

Last year the Panthers won it with a 12-4 record (which I accurately predicted, thank you). This year, I believe it’s a two-team race between the Falcons and Saints. Both teams have elite quarterbacks, and elite quarterbacks mean playoff appearances. It’s a pretty simple rule. Jake Delhomme is anything but a great quarterback. Tampa Bay doesn’t even have a quarterback. This might be the only division where pretty much nothing has changed since May. And if Ryan and Brees stay in the South for a few more years, Atlanta-New Orleans could become one of the NFL’s best rivalries.

I still have the Falcons winning the division; I love Matt Ryan, and Michael Turner, and now that they have Tony Gonzalez, that offense is just lethal. It was a bit of a scare when Roddy White started holding out, but now he’s got a huge contract (which he earned) and is going to be a top 10 NFL receiver for years to come. The Falcons offense promises to be one of the NFL’s best, and that balances out a defense that isn’t particularly good. Record: 11-5.

The Saints have the upside to be a 14 win team, simply because they have the NFC’s best QB by a mile. Brees has everything a great quarterback should have: near-perfect accuracy and strength, poise in the pocket, sharp decision making ability, and underappreciated strength and elusiveness in the pocket. He’s the complete package. He’s a lot like an early Tom Brady – has no marquee receivers but spreads the ball out to anybody and everybody. The Saints also have the downside to be a 5 win team; their defense is that horrible. But it seems that Brees’ goodness outweighs the defenses badness to the tune of a 10-6 record, and finally a playoff appearance.

The question with Carolina is: how far will they drop? They’re not repeating last year’s 12-4 performance, but will they sink down to 5 or 6 wins? Or will they remain feisty with an 8 or 9 win season? Is 10 wins out of the question? Having to play four games against the Falcons and Saints doesn’t help their cause, and neither does playing against the NFC and AFC East. With all the holes they have on defense and the problems at quarterback, I think a sub .500 season is to be expected. 7-9.

Tampa Bay is a team with way more questions than answers. Is new coach Raheem Morris the real deal? Will the defense fall apart without Kiffin and Brooks? Who the heck will play quarterback? When will Josh Freeman get a chance? Will he stink? Will they platoon Ward with Graham and Cadillac Williams or just let Ward run like crazy, knowing that’s their best chance of moving the ball? Can Antonio Bryant duplicate last season’s heroics? Can they possibly compete in this tough division? Perhaps the real question should simply be: How bad will they be? I want to give every team the benefit of the doubt, but last year’s Lions taught me that that’s not always a good idea. But last year’s Falcons also taught me to never be too sure that a team is terrible. These Bucs look like they could go either way; Ward has all the skills to carry their offense (he ran for over 1,000 yards as a backup last year), but poor quarterback play has doomed many a team. Looking over their schedule, I only see 3 or 4 wins. I’m going to guess 4-12. But I won’t be at all surprised to see them in the Super Bowl, that’s how crazy the NFL is lately.

Next let’s discuss, for the millionth time, the NFC North. What has happened since May? You mean besides the circus of Brett Favre? To make an obnoxiously long story short, he’s not coming to Minnesota. (***Editor's note: Favre IS coming to Minnesota. So please disregard the following paragraph) That leaves Sage Rosenfels as the heir apparent to the QB job in Minnesota, which is one of the easiest jobs in the NFL. Behind that offensive line and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, all it takes is not sucking and you can win a lot of games. Unfortunately for the Vikings, Tavaris Jackson just so happens to suck. Sage, I think, will fare a lot better. He’s perhaps best known as the guy who managed to turn the ball over 3 times in 3 minutes to blow a 20 point lead last year against the Colts, but aside from that one disastrous game, he compiled a pretty decent season filling in for injured Schaub, with 1431 yards in 6 starts – that averages out to a 3800 yard season which is pretty solid. Of course, he turned the ball over 12 times, or an average of twice a start; if he keeps that up all season, between the big yards and the big turnovers, the Vikings basically have a clone of Favre. A gunslinger with a strong arm is better than a moron with no arm, which is why Rosenfels should and will start over Tavaris Jackson.

As for the rest of the Vikings team, they surely look like division winners again. It all starts with Adrian Peterson, the most dominant running back in the world, and that excellent offensive line. This season, look for the Vikes to try to integrate more weapons in the passing offense, especially rookie Percy Harvin, so they can score through the air as well as on the ground. Last year they kicked way too many field goals. Defensively they should be very stout; they can stuff the run using only four or five players, allowing a bunch of ho-hum secondary players to double and triple team receivers. Jared Allen gives them a premier pass rusher. They probably have the most talent top-to-bottom in the NFC North, and should win the division with an 11-5 record.

The Packers should be able to take second in the division pretty easily, and will have to fight to contend for a Wildcard. They have loads of talent all over – offensive line, QB, RB, WRs, defensive line, secondary, linebackers… like I said, all over. They don’t have many ‘elite’ players, but they have an overwhelming amount of good players. Rodgers is the lynchpin; if he steps his game up to the next level, they could be looking at 12 or 13 wins and serious Super Bowl contention, but if he stays where he was at last year, which was good but not amazing, they’ll probably remain a .500 team. My guess is 9-7.

Chicago has Jay Cutler, which has everyone all excited and dancing around in the streets. I’m excited too, but only because that means the Lions get to play two games against him. He’s a turnover machine, a reckless quarterback, a poor leader, a selfish guy with a strong but inaccurate arm. He’ll throw some beautiful deep balls to Hester this season, sure, but he’ll also overthrow lots of deep passes and force balls into double coverage instead of checking down. He gives the Lions a good chance to beat the Bears in both games this season. So if you were wondering how I really feel about Jay Cutler, I think they guy’s a bum. He’s a loser; he sucks.

That said, the Bears are going to stay ahead of the Lions, at least for this year. They are better than the Lions at every position except wide receiver and linebacker, and linebacker is a close call. They have an offensive line that isn’t bad, they have a very solid RB, a good secondary and a really good D-line. Oh, and great special teams. The Lions still have too much improving to do on both lines to be ready for a .500 season. The Bears will be close: 7-9.

My final prediction for the Lions season will have to wait until the preseason develops a little more. I want to see how Pettigrew and Delmas look in real action. I want to see how the QB battle progresses, and I want to see who earns the starting jobs at DE, DT, CB, SS, and LG. If they look well-coached and disciplined, if they eliminate the stupid penalties and don’t give up too many big plays, they just might be ready for a turnaround. For now, I’ll say 5-11.

The NFC East gets more and more compelling by the day. Originally, I ranked the four teams like this: Eagles, Redskins, Giants, Cowboys. A lot of minor injuries and position battles keep the East in constant flux and make it difficult to know which teams could flop and which teams could dominate. The Giants have an elite defense and an elite offensive line, but I don’t believe in Eli Manning. The Cowboys are just an okay overall team, but I have a lot of trust in Tony Romo. The Redskins have a potentially great defense and a solid running game, but is Jason Campbell ready to step up and lead the team? What about the Eagles, is McNabb going to be able to stay healthy, and lead them back to a Super Bowl?

A lot of people have been dogging on the Eagles, saying their bark is worse than their bite. Some folks even call them underdogs in this division. I expect the division to have a lot of close games, plenty of dogfights, but in the end the Eagles will come out as the top dogs. Oh, and speaking of dogs, did you hear the Eagles signed Michael Vick?

In all seriousness, the Eagles are going to be able to run the ball effectively behind an improved offensive line, and it will probably be a two-headed monster, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy, pounding yards up the middle. That’s going to open up the passing game for deep balls to fast receivers who can create separation. That in turn opens up space for the short passing game, where Westbrook is most dangerous. Add to the equation the speed of Michael Vick and the Eagles offense is downright terrifying. Their defense may take a step backward; I don’t like them as my #2 fantasy defense anymore. Coordinator Jim Johnson passed away, which is sad, and also bad news for their defense. His successor hopes to utilize the same play-book, but there’s only one Jim Johnson and a big part of his schemes involved making the right in-game adjustments and understanding when and how to blitz in the flow of an actual game. Coaching isn’t just about having the right playbook, it’s understanding how the game is progressing and how to surprise and destroy your opponent. Without Johnson, the Eagles defense won’t be as good; it’s still loaded with playmakers, so it will still be good. Just not great. Prediction: an NFC best 12-4.

So who’s going to join the Saints in the playoffs as the other NFC Wildcard team? Will it be an NFC West or North team, or does the East have it locked up? All three teams in the East are playoff-caliber, but each has major flaws as well. To determine my final predictions, I’ve ruminated long and hard on each team in the division’s strengths and weaknesses, and which strengths outweigh which weaknesses and when it all plays out in September which teams will actually win. Since the East is so good, I expect it to be close, and to come down to a few key interdivisional games. In their 10 games against non-NFC East foes, I bet each teams goes at least 6-4. But who has the edge when they play each other?

I hate to say it, but I like the Giants. Not because of Eli Manning, mind you, but because of the defense and the running game. The Giants go 10-6 in spite of Eli Manning, and then lose in the first round because of Eli Manning. Here’s my rationale: for one thing, Chris Snee is one of the best offensive lineman alive; Jacobs/Bradshaw is a better RB tandem than any team in the division, which is saying something; Justin Tuck isn’t the best DT in the division, but he’s not far behind Haynesworth; the Giants can stop the pass better than any team in the division; depth and experience sometimes are better than pure talent – the Giants have crazy depth. They’ll go 10-6, with a few terrible losses than can be blamed solely on Eli. Eli stinks, but the Giants are good.

Not far behind will be the Redskins and Cowboys. Both will finish at least 8-8. The Cowboys have a better passing game and the two are nearly equal in terms of running the ball, but the Skins have the edge defensively. I’m not fond of either coach, but I’m less fond of Wade Phillips. I picked the Redskins to make the playoffs a few months ago, while everyone else in the world thinks they’ll stay in fourth place in this division. I don’t know. Maybe for once, everyone in the world is right. Maybe Jason Campbell just isn’t good enough to push the Redskins over the hump. But I just don’t like Wade Phillips. I’m going to say both teams finish 8-8.

SEA: 10-6
SF: 9-7
ARZ: 7-9
STL: 6-10

ATL: 11-5
NO: 10-6
CAR: 7-9
TB: 4-12

MIN: 11-5
GB: 9-7
CHI: 7-9
DET: 5-11

PHI: 12-4
NYG: 10-6
DAL: 8-8
WAS: 8-8

Wildcards: Saints, Giants

ATL def. NYG
NO def. SEA

ATL def. MIN
PHI def. NO

PHI def. ATL


Super Bowl: Patriots 27, Eagles 20

Brady throws 3 TDs, 2 to Moss, and racks up more than 300 yards, winning his fourth Super Bowl and solidifying himself as one of the best football players of all time.

Thoughts on the Lions Preseason: Game 1

To be honest, I didn't actually watch any of the game. I might watch it later this week on DVR. I saw the stat line, a few highlights and read some articles about it. Here is what stuck out to me, a quote from Matthew Stafford after the game, talking about his lame duck pass that was picked off and run back for 6 Falcon points:

"I'm going to throw interceptions," Stafford said. "It's going to happen."

Hmmm.... It's going to happen??

I don't know how I feel about that. Sure, he's being honest, and definitely realistic. But is that really what we want to hear? Couldn't he have said, "Yeah, that was a lousy throw, I'll try to learn from my mistakes," or "I'm glad I have the preseason to prepare," or something a little bit optimistic. At least he redeemed himself later, by leading a scoring drive and completing some deep throws, including a 25-yard touchdown to fellow rookie receiver Derrick Williams. His stat line looked pretty decent:-7 for 14, 114 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, but it sounds like he played even better than his numbers indicate; Keary Colbert dropped two or three of his passes.

Speaking of Colbert, it doesn't look likely that he's going to see much playing time. (Thankfully.) Williams played very well and looks to have no rust from his lingering hamstring injury, so my guess is he's going to end up 4th on the WR depth chart, behind the Johnsons and Dennis Northcutt. Colbert may end up being cut in favor of Standeford. I remember seeing Colbert play for the Panthers and the dude is terrible.

The studs of the game were rookie RB Andre Brown and former Spartan Drew Stanton of all people, who led a thrilling fourth-quarter comeback, culminating in a last-second Hanson field goal. Stanton had 114 yards in the second half, and ran for 59 more. Brown made a serious case for playing time by displaying his speed and elusiveness on a couple of big plays; I don't see why he shouldn't be 3rd on the RB depth chart. He makes a better change-of-pace back than some slow loser like Cason or Calhoun.

The Lions struggled with penalties, particularly on defense. In total we had nine penalties for over 100 yards. Not a great omen. It sounds as if the defense showed some signs of who could be moving up on the depth chart, and who's stock could be sinking: Chuck Darby had two penalties in a row, while safety Kalvin Pearson missed several open field tackles, including one on Michael Turner's 40 yard TD. Fellow safety Stu Schweigert made well, especially in run support, and might be making a case to start opposite Delmas.

The two rookies I'm most excited about (other than Stafford), Pettigrew and Delmas, both did not play with minor injuries. Megatron didn't play either. Kevin Smith played really solid. Culpepper actually played pretty well too. From what I saw on the play-by-play, he sure got sacked a lot, but also showed decent mobility. The big question mark was the O-line, which Jim Schwartz praised after the game, although they suffered from their usual amount of penalties and sacks allowed. But the running game seemed to be more effective than in games past, so maybe they are making progress.

All in all, a win is a win, even in the preseason, and to win in such dramatic fashion helps the team's morale. No major players got injured (backup linebacker Cody Spencer went down with a potentially serious knee injury, but really, who cares?), some of the young players looked explosive, and all three quarterbacks played well. Except for the one Stafford interception.

But don't worry, he plans on throwing a lot more interceptions in the future. It's going to happen.

The Ultimate Disgrace: A Ben Wallace Story

From humble beginnings at Virginia Commonwealth University, a bald-headed young man named Ben Wallace aspired to play in the NBA. He went undrafted in 1995, and after a brief stint in Italy was signed as a backup by the Washington Bullets.

Fast forward four years, and Ben becomes a Detroit Piston. Then he becomes a starter. And soon, very slowly, he emerges into a bonafide NBA superstar. By 2004 Ben Wallace is the most feared defensive player in the NBA. The undersized, under-talented kid from small-town Alabama grew a poofy afro and became the symbol of a city. He made it all the way to the top of the NBA the Detroit way: blue-collar hard work. He became one of the greatest Detroit Pistons in history; he was an NBA Champion, a five-time All Star, and a four-time Defensive Player of the Year.

We lauded Ben Wallace, and forgave him his many inadequacies. He couldn't shoot, he couldn't dribble, but heck, it was cute watching him try. As long as he hauled down 18 boards a night and blocked a couple shots into oblivion , he was our knight in a shining afro. We loved him; he loved us, and our mutual love was enough to get us through anything.

Except greed.

The rapacious little bastard pulled a Judas on the entire state of Michigan, and sold us out for a bag of silver coins. Joe Dumars offered Ben a four-year deal worth $10 million dollars a year – seriously, think about that for a second: that’s around fifty thousand dollars per game – to continue playing for the team that made him into a star. Instead, Wallace sold his soul. He kissed Joe D, the man who made him into an icon, on the cheek and betrayed him. He turned his back on me and you and every Pistons fan in the world, and signed with Chicago (a division rival no less!) for only 2 extra million per year. Seriously, in the scope of things, what’s the difference? 40 million dollars… 48 million dollars… What’s eight extra million?? (I’m being sarcastic, but also completely serious).

When it happened, a lot of 'sports people' said they understood Wallace's decision; it was "just business", and Wallace had to do what was best for himself and his family. Haven’t these heartless monsters ever heard of loyalty? Didn't Michael Corleone say it was "just business" when he ordered the murder of anyone who stood in his way? Since when does sports have to be a business anyay?? Isn’t it really all about fun and fanship? What about when Detroit legend Steve Yzerman stayed with the Wings later in his career even though it cost him a good five million per season? What about Tom Brady taking a pay cut to make room for Randy Moss? Justin Verlander, one of the best baseball pitchers in the entire world, is only the fourth highest paid pitcher on the Tigers, and you never hear him saying a word about it. Can you really put a price tag on allegiance? How much does it cost to sell your soul to your enemies? Apparently, for Ben Wallace, only 2 million dollars per year.

So Ben went away to the Bulls, and Detroit removed the Big Ben Gong from the Palace. Kids all across the mitten state mourned the death of their hero, and sadly put away their afro wigs, in hopes that the Pistons would sign Josh Childress or Diana Ross so they could pull them back out again. The Pistons moved on, but they were never really the same. Chauncey, Rip, Tayshaun and Rasheed scrapped together another solid year, but folded in the playoffs as usual. It wasn't until Dumars forgot what the heck he was doing that the whole team went to pieces and leaves us in our current state of disarray, but that's another story.

The treacherous Ben Wallace fled to Chicago, where his basketball abilities were exposed like a French woman at the beach. He was finally revealed as an offensive liability; he was shown to be nothing but a great help-side defender with limited one-on-one skills who could only thrive on a team with perfect chemistry like the Pistons. Everyone realized he was a 6’9” guy posing as a center who never had much of an interior presence on either end of the floor. In Detroit all of these things were well-kept secrets. In Chicago it became public news. Big Ben became just regular Ben. Wallace was more than just a hinderance on the offensive end, he was an absolute joke. Everyone in Chicago got a good chuckle watching him launch those hideous airballs from the free throw line. In Detroit, we overlooked his obvious deficiencies; we embraced him for who he was. But in the Windy City, forget all about the Big Ben gong; forget the fro. Ben lost all his fans, lost his ferociousness, lost everything. His numbers dropped in every statistic, except one: his salary. He became a mediocre bench player, an offensive burden, and to be frank, the most overpaid player in the NBA.

How ironic.

So the traitor got traded, to another division rival, where Wallace joined up with LeBron and his merry band of idiots. Big Ben became even smaller in Cleveland than he was in Chi-Town, and after a year and a half of a stunningly horrible 3 PPG and 4 RPG, he was traded to Phoenix for the only player in the NBA who is more washed-up than he is: Shaquille O’Neal. The Suns had no interest in allowing Wallace to play even one minute for their team, but used him solely as a means to increase cap space. They bought out his contract, offering him $10 million up-front for the $14 million remaining on his deal. He accepted, and then mulled retirement for several weeks.

At this point, it seemed that the sad career of Ben Wallace had ended, just as irrelevantly as it began. But then today, I saw a small headline on ESPN.com that caught my attention: “Pistons ink one-year deal with Wallace.”

‘Please be Gerald Wallace,' I thought. ‘Or Rasheed. Or some Wallace I’ve never heard of. Anyone but…’

But no. Judas is back in town. A one-year deal for the veteran minimum $1.4 million (talk about ironic). A back-up for none other than Kwame Brown. With Maxiell, Villanueva, and Chris Wilcox, I don't know where Wallace is going to find any minutes. Not that I care about that.

What I want to know is: what's in it for Ben? Why would Ben want to drag his sorry butt back into the Palace? He's not going to get his jersey #3 back, so what's he going to do? Be #00 or something stupid like that? Is he just hoping to retire a Piston and salvage a little of his dignity? Probably yes. Does he deserve to have his jersey retired in Detroit? Yes, although it's tough to admit that now. Will he contribute anything more than 4 points and 4 rebounds a night in 2009? Honestly, I doubt it.

From a strictly basketball standpoint, it’s a good deal for the Pistons. We needed depth in the frontcourt and a defensive presence; of course we just added Wilcox for that very reason, but I guess it doesn't hurt to have more depth.

But what about a fan’s standpoint? As a human being, with feelings and emotions who is subject to pain and betrayal, this is egregious. I don’t want him back in a Pistons uniform. I don’t want him back in the Palace. I don’t want to see his ugly face on my TV. I want to go to a few games next season and BOO him every time he touches the ball. (Which won’t be very often).

It’s just absurd. It's utterly absurd. How's Ben going to look Rip and Tayshaun in the eye and say anything to them?

“Hey guys … uhh, sorry I quit on you all like that … and sorry I destroyed our team for a couple million bucks ... but hey, remember when I almost fought Ron Artest? That was cool right? … but then he fought all those fans instead … err ... but remember that one three-pointer I made back in ‘05? That was pretty cool right? … Tayshaun? … that was funny remember? …Guys? ... Where are you going ...? ”

What an ass.

To cap this off, I’d like to tell a completely true story.

Back in 2003, at the height on my Pistons euphoria, my brother and sister-in-law and I were in the Palace for a regular season game. During the shoot-around we were standing near a tunnel right as Mr. Wallace, my favorite player at the time, was jogging out onto the court. We all shouted “Ben! BEN!!” and he looked over at us and grinned. We reached out to high-five him and he slapped us all with his gigantic palm: first my brother, then Crissi, and lastly me. I was so utterly elated with the surprise of the moment that I didn’t want it to end, so I clutched onto his finger for just a second too long, long enough that he pulled it away and gave me a strange look as he jogged out onto the court.

Looking back to that day, I wish I had broken his stupid finger. Or bit it. Or taken out my keys and stabbed him in the hand.

The end.

25 Burning Fantasy Football Questions

With less than a week until the first NFL Preseason and game and less than one month until the fantasy football draft, I proudly present my:

25 Burning Fantasy Football Questions



Question One: Which quarterback coming back from an injury - Matt Hasslebeck or Carson Palmer - is more worthy of being drafted?

Answer: Palmer. He's younger, appears to be healthier, and is just an all-around better player. He's also got better receivers.


2: Which hyped-up, offensive-minded, first-year head coach will produce the best offensive numbers in 2009: Josh McDaniels with the Broncos or Todd Haley with the Chiefs?

A: I believe it's Haley. McDaniels has a more impressive track record, but Haley seems to be a better coach, and has a better quarterback to build around. The Broncos are rebuilding; the Chiefs are half-way built. (The biggest benefactors on these teams are Dwayne Bowe and Eddie Royal, who will be doing their best impressions of Fitzgerald and Welker this season. The loser is Brandon Marshall, who isn't going to come close to leading the NFL in targets like he did last season.)


3: Does Jamal Lewis or Larry Johnson have anything left in the tank?

A: Doubtful. Even if they do, they both play for crappy-ish teams and will have to share lots of carries with young, talented guys. Don't draft them.


4: What was the best offseason acquisition that no one is talking about?

A: Jason Peters to the Eagles; he gives them a great left tackle in both pass protection and the running game.


5: Most overrated offseason acquisition?

A: Jay Cutler to the Bears. I'm not totally convinced he's an upgrade from Kyle Orton.


6: Which second year running back (Forte, Chris Johnson, Kevin Smith, Slaton) will have the
best fantasy season?

A: I'm actually going to say Slaton. All four guys will catch a lot of passes and score their share of touchdowns (except Johnson, who gets vultured by fat LenDale White), but Slaton has no competition whatsoever for carries and has the benefit of playing alongside an elite wide receiver who commands a lot of attention. Plus, I would go as far as to say that from a purely athletic standpoint, Slaton is the best RB in this bunch.


7: Which RBs can you find in the very late rounds who may end up starting and giving you first round numbers?

A: I'll give you a few guys. Donald Brown (Colts), Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers), and Beanie Wells (Cardinals).


8: Give me one guy at each position who can't possibly be as good as they were last season.

A: DeAngelo Williams is the obvious answer for RB. My WR would be Anquan Boldin. And my QB may surprise you: Drew Brees. No way he throws that many yards again; if his touchdowns slip too, he could be a major bust. Tight end - that Vikings guy with the weird name, and defense, Titans.


9: Should Knownshon Moreno be the first rookie drafted in all leagues?

A: Yes. But Beanie shouldn't be too far behind, unless this injury keeps him out of practice for a long time.


10: Which RB is most likely to be a first round BUST?

A: Well, if you insist on drafting Chris Johnson or DeAngelo Williams in the first round, either of them. But if not, I would say Portis due to an injury or Westbrook due to rookie LeSean McCoy stealing half his carries.


11: Why do I spend so many hours on fantasy football research when it's pretty much all luck and I get beat by guys in the league who do no research whatsoever and couldn't tell you more than 5 tight ends in the NFL? What's the point???

A: Glad you asked. For one thing, it's a matter of pride. If I tag someone a sleeper two months before the season begins and I draft them and they play awesome, I can be proud of that. If my brother drafts someone because they were the next guy pre-ranked but doesn't actually know what team he plays for, and then that player does great, he can't be proud of the pick. He has to live knowing he was lucky. When you know everything there is to know, the luck element is gone, and if you win your league, you can attribute it to sheer skill. For another thing, it's always a good feeling on draft day when you can calmly make your picks without researching on the spot and panicking and saying things like "Oh Crap I forgot TO was on the Bills now!" Your picks may not end up playing well, but at least you knew at the time you picked them exactly why you did it. If some punk like Marc Dykstra tries to stir up an argument, you can always overpower him with football knowledge and leave him cowering in the corner, and that's always a good thing. Fourthly, I do it just for the fun of it. Look, I know that doing all this research and reading doesn't actually improve my chances of winning the league. But it's fun, and when I watch the real games it makes it that much more enjoyable to know who everyone is and be able to recite their 40 time and previous injuries to anyone willing to listen. I know it makes me a pain in the ass to watch football with, but that's okay. At least Crazy Keith always wants to talk football. And lastly, and the main reason, is just because I have tons of time to kill at work, and might as well do something productive.


12: Who will start at quarterback for the Browns, Bucs, Vikings, Jets, Titans, and 49ers? And are any of these guys worth drafting?

A: I'm fairly certain that Quinn, Sage, Sanchez and Hill will start. Kerry Collins should start but I think Vince Young will start, and in Tampa I have no idea, but my gut tells me that Leftwich starts week one and Freeman takes over after week 4 or 5. And no, none of these guys are worth drafting; however, Quinn, Hill and Sage might be worth a shot on bye-weeks or against certain defenses.


13: If you pick a QB and/or WR in the first round, are you totally screwed?

A: No. You won't land a "surefire stud RB", but is there really such a thing anymore? Last year you could have found Forte, DeAngelo, and Turner way past the third round. The hard part is of course finding the right guys; you could have easily picked Dominic Rhodes and Justin Fargas last year instead. The safe thing to do is draft at least one RB in the first two rounds, but honestly, wouldn't you rather have Larry Fitzgerald and Drew Brees than LT and Frank Gore? I know I would.


14: From a statistical standpoint, who will miss having their #1 receiver the most: Romo, Palmer, or Eli Manning?

A: Eli. Palmer got Lavernaeus Coles to replace TJ and Romo still has his favorite target: Jason Witten. Eli has a whole lot of nothin'. Which leads to the next question...


15: Are there any players on the Giants, other than Brandon Jacobs, worth drafting?

A: Yeah, I'd take a shot on Ahmad Bradshaw in a very late round because of Jacob's propensity for getting hurt. I wouldn't draft Eli because there are too many other quality QBs. I'd take Hixon late, as a #4 receiver. He has upside. All the other guys - Smith, Hicks, Manningham, Boss - are not worth drafting. Hicks has the best shot at being a waiver wire wonder.


16: Which perpetually disappointing guy is more worth a shot this season: Reggie Bush or Darren McFadden?

A: It's still Bush, but only because of his receiving ability. He'll catch 60+ passes and gain around 700 yards through the air, unless he gets hurt again. McFadden is the only Raider worth looking at (except Zach Miller) and has more skills as a runner than Bush, but being on the Raiders makes him insufferably limited.


17: Is Derrick Ward this year's Michael Turner?

A: Yes! Former backup, finally gets to be a starter. Young fresh legs ready to go. Easy schedule. Team expected to be horrible. The only reason Ward won't be as good as Turner was is because Josh Freeman won't be able to lead the Bucs the way Matt Ryan led the Falcons, and they won't have as good of a passing game.


18: Are Mike Vick, Plaxico Burress, and/or Brett Favre worth drafting?

A: No, no, and no.


19: Are there any quarterbacks who will run for enough yardage to make them extra valuable?

A: Yeah, there are a handful of guys. Rodgers, Cutler, Cassel, and Edwards, to name a few - are decent scramblers and should rush for around 150-200 yards this season. Garrard, McNabb, Russell and Campbell all went over 100 yards last season (And they are alll black guys. Coincidence? I think not.) The one guy who stands out the most to me is Matt Cassel - he ran for 270 last year in New England and now goes to KC where Tyler Thigpen ran for (his life) and 386 last year. Cassel should run for over 300 which is the equal of 5 extra passing TDs. That makes him pretty appealing.


20: Who are the top five best fantasy picks at each position in the NFC North?

A: Very interesting question. At quarterback, it's Aaron Rodgers by a mile; Jay Cutler is a distant second, followed by Sage, then Daunte, Stafford, and lastly Tavaris Jackson.

At running back, this is extremely interesting. You have to put AP first of course, but is Matt Forte definitely the #2 RB in the North? He'll be drafted as such, but I'm not sure he should be. Kevin Smith and Ryan Grant are excellent sleepers and there's a real possibility all four of these guys could finish in the top 10 RBs overall. My rankings are AP, Forte, Grant, then Smith, but you can't go wrong with any of them.

Receivers look like this: Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Devin Hester (ahead of Bernard Berrian, that's right), Berrian, Donald Driver.

Tight ends: Olsen, Lee, Shiancothe, Pettigrew, Desmond Clark.

And Defenses: Vikings, Bears, Pack, Lions (but not as far behind as you think)


21: Any rookie receivers worth drafting?

A: There are a few candidates: Crabtree (SF) and Heyward-Bey (OAK), as well as Maclin (PHI), Harvin (MIN), Hicks (NYG) and Britt (TEN). Maclin and Hicks are in the best situations, Crabtree is the best player but is also slightly injured and remains unsigned, and Heyward-Bey, while super fast, is on the Raiders, so that's a no for him. Crabtree and Maclin are the two guys I like; I'd roll the dice on them as #4 or #5 WRs in the 9th or 10th round.


22: Are the Tigers going to win the AL Central and make the playoffs? (Not a fantasy football question, but still intriguing)

A: I'll spare you the next two months of pain and agony and answer that question now: No.

I can't believe they've held on to the lead this long, playing .500 ball the past two months and hitting terribly, while the White Sox seem to win every night and are hitting like crazy. We're getting nothing but about one hit a week from Magglio, Inge has relapsed back to his terrible 2006 self, Granderson and Polanco are painfully inconsistent and both hitting about .250 when they should both be flirting with .300. Cabrera is our only consistent threat and he can't produce runs by himself; by the way, since the steroids crackdown has been in full force, doesn't it seem like Cabrera and Mags have gone from power hitters to singles hitters? Hmmm... Our pitching has been super, even though our two highest-paid pitchers, Bonderman and Willis, have combined to pitch only 37 innings all season (with an ERA of about 15.00). The only chance we have of holding onto first in the Central is our spectacular four man rotation of Verlander, Jackson, Washburn and Porcello, which may be the best four starters of any team in baseball this season. If we can keep on winning games with scores like 3-1 like we have been doing, we might just have a shot. But I'm concerned that none of the four guys can keep pace how they've been pitching all year. If we don't hit the ball, we don't win. Period. I'm not giving up all hope for the playoffs, but I say our chances our slim. If we still have the Central lead a week from now, I'll be surprised. Chances are the White Sox and Twins both pass us by about 5 games by the time October rolls around. I'm not trying to be gloomy, just realistic. We should have traded for a bat and now the trade deadline is long gone; so too, I fear, are the Tigers playoff hopes.


23: Back to fantasy football: it's been proven that players who are in the last year of their contracts perform better than usual. Who are this year's key contract players, and which of them can we expect an extra boost of motivation from?

A: QBs- Phillip Rivers, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Chad Pennington; RBs- Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker, Pierre Thomas, LenDale White, and a big load of backup - McClain, Norwood, Sproles, Watson, Washington, Kolby Smith, and Ricky Williams; WRs- Braylon Edwards, Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Domenick Hixon, Brandon Marshall (unhappy), Roddy White (holding-out).

Of the QBs, I think Campbell and Orton stand the most to gain from being in contract years - they need to earn the starting jobs for the future. Of the many RBs, the one I would focus on is Pierre Thomas - if he plays well enough, he could make the Saints forget all about Reggie Bush; Jennings, Edwards and Jackson are the WRs to watch out for, while White and Marshall should be able to earn extensions before this season begins. If they don't, they'll possibly become holdouts and really screw themselves.


24: Who's going to lead the NFL in carries?

A: Hmmm... well no one expected it to be Michael Turner last year. That's always a great question to ask. AP is one good possibility. According to ESPN's projections, only five backs will see more than 300 carries: AP, Turner, Forte, Portis, and Jackson. Of those, I disagree most with Portis; I would add a few guys to the list: Slaton, Gore, Grant, and LT, with a lot of other guys right on the fence - Kevin Smith, Westbrook, and Ward. I'd also move Forte from sure thing to on the fence. The guy most likely to lead the league in carries is probably Peterson, with Jackson probably second , but the guys who you can draft a little later who have the best shot at 350+ carries? Steve Slaton and Ryan Grant. Remember you heard it hear first.


25: Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL? Most receiving touchdowns? Most receptions?

A: I want to say Calvin Johnson for all three, but I won't. Here are my serious answers: Andre Johnson (1700), Randy Moss, (17), Wes Welker (127). Second place in each category: Fitzgerald (1500), Calvin (15), and Reggie Wayne (115).


That's all I could think of for now. Enjoy the preseason and if you have any last minute questions you're dying to know the answers to, feel free to leave me a comment or throw me an email at davidmorgan8@gmail.com .