NFL Power Poll
The Favorite
1. Indianapolis Colts
Manning is playing his best season ever, and you can tell he will be satisfied with nothing short of a Super Bowl title. It doesn’t look like anyone is going to stop him. The defense doesn’t give up big plays, and Bob Sanders is slowly but surely returning to full health.
The Contenders
2. New Orleans Saints
The clear-cut favorite in the NFC, New Orleans has won both close games and blowouts, they’ve won with both passing and running, and the defense has played very well - for the most part. They have top candidates for both offensive and defensive MVP. Drew Brees can dissect any defense and tear it to shreds; if you blitz him, he’ll burn you. If you don’t, he’ll destroy you. If you drop six into coverage, they run it down your throat. (Surprising fact: The Saints run the ball an average of 61% percent of the time in the second half - most in the NFL)
3. New England Patriots
The Pats are just 5-2, but with the self-destructing Jets behind them the division is all but theirs. They have a tough game coming up against the Colts but should still cruise effortlessly into the playoffs. Their challenge is to attain a first round bye and/or home-field advantage in the playoffs. As long as Brady is upright, they’re a contender.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Winning the AFC North has proven to be more difficult than Pittsburgh may have anticipated, but ultimately the Bengals are going to taper off and leave them Stellers in control. They never get blown out because the defense keeps the game close, and Roethlisberger knows how to score TDs in the two-minute drill. It’s a lethal combination, especially with Polamalu healthy.
The Powerhouses with Faulty QBs
5. Minnesota Vikings
On paper, Minnesota may have the best all-around roster in the NFL. They have Jared Allen. And Steve Hutchinson. And freaking Adrian Peterson. They have great linebackers. A good secondary. A solid receiving crew. And then … they have a 40 year old QB with gray hair, who has sustained dozens of injuries and played 275 consecutive games and is recovering from a torn bicep, not to mention his entire career has been plagued by mental lapses and unnecessary turnovers and he completely fell apart last season because of his old age. Favre is their downfall. How beautifully ironic.
6. New York Giants
If the Vikings aren’t the best team in the NFL on paper, it’s the Giants. Led by Chris Snee, Justin Tuck, Osi Uminyora, and an insanely good running game, the Giants have all the tools to power their way to a 12 win season and a first-round bye. But, aside from some potentially hampering injuries on defense, the Giants also have … Eli Manning. The dopiest looking guy in the NFL. The worst on-the-field leader I’ve ever seen. The luckiest Super Bowl winning quarterback of my lifetime. The inconsistent crybaby who is only popular because of his older brother. Eli Manning is the Giants downfall.
The Menace
7. Denver Broncos
The freaking Broncos and their freaking 16 year old coach have yet to lose a game, and thanks to San Diego’s impotency they have locked up a playoff spot by week 8. They win with luck, and by taking advantage of other team’s miscues. Their quarterback can only throw the ball about 25 yards. They bug me to no end. Yet, they are 6-0. But not for long!
The Dark Horses
8. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan is probably a year or two away from being a serious threat in the playoffs, but maybe not. He has as many weapons to throw to as anybody and Michael Turner is getting back on track after a slow start to the season. But after getting waxed by Dallas last week, I don’t think this defense is playoff savvy.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
As much as I dislike Chad Johnson, you can’t deny the Bengals their place in the top ten this season. Palmer and Benson are both having a renaissance season; and the defense has experienced a remarkable improvement. It’s going to be very tough for them to keep up with the Steelers down the stretch, but they have all the confidence in the world right now. After the bye they play Baltimore and then Pittsburgh; we’ll know where they stand after that.
10. Green Bay Packers
After a sluggish start, the Pack’s new 3-4 defense is starting to smooth out and wreak havoc for quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers is playing well enough to make the Lambeau faithful forget about old #4. Green Bay is a team, like Minny and NYG, that is extremely well-balanced on both sides of the ball and has a lot of playmakers. And they don’t have a fatefully flawed quarterback.
Too Much Hype, Not Enough Results
11. Baltimore Ravens
Ultimately, Baltimore will probably be the best team to miss the playoffs, unless Cincinnati slips up late in the season. Flacco is just a bit too young to be trusted just yet.
12. Philadelphia Eagles
Injuries, old age and a tough division might keep Philly out of the playoffs. If they squeak in, they are a dark horse team, but I don’t see them squeaking in ahead of Green Bay and Atlanta. You can’t lose to the Raiders and still have my respect.
13. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals continue to suffer from Hype Disease, while achieving mediocre results. They won’t be back in the Super Bowl for a looooooong time.
Frisky, but Non-Threatening
14. Houston Texans
Crazy Keith thinks they’ll wind up in the playoffs. I disagree. Either way, they just aren’t that good.
15. San Francisco 49ers
Switching to Alex Smith at QB is one of the biggest surprises to me so far this season; Shaun Hill didn’t even play that poorly. Singletary has proven to be a great coach for them, and the overall weakness of the NFC West gives them hope to be a playoff team.
How the Mighty Have Fallen
16. San Diego Chargers
At least they get to beat up Oakland this week as a sort of confidence booster.
17. Dallas Cowboys
Remember when the Cowboys were everyone’s pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl? Yeah, that was only two years ago. The sudden emergence of Miles Austin is a bright spot for them, but they are only the third best team in their division and not bound for the postseason.
Flash in the Pan
18. New York Jets
After three weeks of football, they cracked the top five in everyone’s power rankings. Then they lost three straight and Mark Sanchez looked extremely rookie-like. Then they lost Kris Jenkins, the centerpiece of their 3-4 defense, to a season-ending injury. Then they beat the Raiders 38-0 and Sanchez got criticized for eating a hot dog during the game. What a wacky season.
The Playoff Longshot
19. Seattle Seahawks
With a healthy Hasslebeck and a crummy division, Seattle could limp into the playoffs with a 9-7 or even 8-8 record. They have some easy games left on the schedule, including the Lions, Rams, Bucs and Titans. All they need is a little help from the Cards and Niners, which could easily happen.
The Villain
20. Chicago Bears
I’ve never met anyone who likes Jay Cutler. I spent a weekend in Chicago a couple months ago with a bunch of Bears fans, and even they don’t like him.
The Not Awful But Definitely Not Good Teams
21. Miami Dolphins
They’re a pain in the ass to play against because of all the Wildcrap, but as New Orleans proved last week, all it takes is some good old-fashion fundamentals and you can easily outmatch them.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
Their defense is still recovering from the major facelift of two summers ago, but they are improved from last season; the offense has some unsung solid players and finally has an offensive line patched together. Jacksonville’s a lot better team than they were in 08… but they’re still not very good.
The Teams Who Won 12 or 13 Games Last Year But Now Are Projected To Win About Four of Five
25. Carolina Panthers
It’s a strange combination when you have one of the league’s best rushing attacks alongside one of the league’s most god-awful quarterbacks. Last year Jake got bad stats but managed to win; this year he gets even worse stats and loses. We’re going to be seeing Matt Moore soon.
26. Tennessee Titans
From 13-3 to 0-7 … Tennessee has had an unbelievably bad turn of events, culminating in a 59-0 loss to the Run-Up-The-Scores. Now Vince Young is starting, per demands of the owner. Never a good thing when the owner gets involved with the decision making. Nor is it ever a good thing when VY is your starting quarterback. Tennessee has a real chance of going 0-16, and not for lack of talent. But for a team that has so recently been to the postseason and now realizes they have nothing to play for, not even pride, they are going to be half-assing the rest of the season. Fake injuries will abound, and just a general lack of effort. It’s sad.
Very, Very Bad Teams
24. Kansas City Chiefs
There are an abundance of horrible teams this season – in fact its one of the main talking points early in the season. We’ve never had a season where so many teams – at least eight – are just flat-out not competitive. Kansas City is one of the frontrunners, and considering all the high draft picks they’ve had recently they have no one to blame but themselves. Poor scouting and poor evaluation of talent can murder a franchise in the NFL because of the salary cap restrictions. Handing the team over to Matt Cassel for $60 million and 6 years obviously hasn’t worked out. Top draft picks Glenn Dorsey, Brandon Albert and Tyson Jackson have all been duds. New coach Todd Haley has been awful. Larry Johnson was suspended for twittering “gay slurs.” What else can go wrong?
25. Detroit Lions
Before the Stafford/Calvin injuries, Detroit was a team on the upswing. Other than the week one blowout the Lions had been competitive against Minnesota and Chicago and beat Washington pretty resoundingly. They made enough plays against Pittsburgh to be in the game at the end. Then Culpepper got hurt and the Lions were mercilessly slaughtered at Lambeau week 6. Now they’ve had a week to heal, a week to regroup, and a matchup against the Rams at a perfect time. The standings say Detroit is 1-5, but they’ve played well in stretches. They really have. The defense has shown improvements – Foote and Jackson have made the biggest impacts and random players in the secondary have contributed. It wasn’t the guys we thought it would be, but afterthoughts like William James and Marquand Manuel who have made the big plays. Buchannan and Henry haven’t panned out, and really, neither has Julian Peterson. Sims has missed a few games and that’s hurt us. The pass rush is too flaky and relies too much on the blitz. The offense is okay, for a while. But they just can’t finish games. Stafford is yet to play a quality fourth quarter, even in the game Detroit won. The play-calling has been brutal. The running plays on 2nd and long are just atrocious. Kevin Smith looks like he’s aged about 15 years in his first two seasons – he runs with the speed of a Bettis and the power of a Warrick Dunn. It’s not pretty. Other acqusitions, such as Northcutt, Morris and Pettigrew, have been underwhelming to say the least. Just like last season, Detroit ranks near the bottom of virtually every team statistic, both offensively and defensively, and especially on special teams. Can you believe that Detroit averages the worst field position when receiving kickoffs, AND allows the best average field position when defending kickoffs? It’s unthinkable that a team can be so consistently bad on kick coverage. To make things worse, Jason Hanson has lost a lot of power in his leg, and the kick return game, which started out promising, now fumbles more kicks than it takes past the 20. It’s been a rough 1-5, but there have been glimmers of hope. I can’t wait to play the Rams and be 2-5.
26. Buffalo Bills
The Bills aren’t good, but they’re not as bad as the next five teams. Which just goes to show that there are some baaaad teams this year.
Teams the Lions Could Beat
27. Cleveland Browns
Derek Anderson is AWFUL. And last season he was a consensus top ten fantasy QB. Weird huh?
28. Washington Redskins
Detroit beat them four weeks ago and they’ve progressively gotten worse each week since. They are a team steeped in drama and controversy, but not in talent, and now Chris Cooley is lost for the year. I blame their entire season on Albert Haynesworth, who took the $100 million dollar check and suddenly forgot how to exert any effort on the field, and nurses all these little injuries and misses random chunks of playing time whenever he feels like it, and hasn’t even been an effective run-stopper, which is the whole reason Washington gave him such a preposterous paycheck in the first place.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
From Byron Leftwich to Josh Johnson to Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay cycles through D-minus quarterbacks and no one even pays attention. The running game is bad, the passing game is worse, and the defense is atrocious. Um, WHY DID THEY FIRE JON GRUDEN AGAIN??
The Worst of the Worst of the Worst
31. St. Louis Rams
It’s just an overall complete lack of talent, similar to what Detroit experienced last year. They just can’t compete. They simply don’t have the personnel to play in the NFL.
32. Oakland Raiders
Unlike St. Louis, Oakland does have some talent. They’ve got Asomugha, Seymour, McFadden, Zach Miller, and some decent linebacker who I can’t think of the name of. But they just don’t care. They don’t even try. You hear a lot about “the culture of losing” in the NFL, especially when you’re a Lions fan. For the most part, I think it’s an overused cliché. But in Oakland, it’s exactly fitting. They expect to lose. They don’t even consider winning. They are the NFL’s punching bag and they don’t even care. JaMarcus Russell doesn’t even care. Their owner is a crazy old man. Their coach punched their assistant coach and is on trial for assault. They’re a joke, an absolute mess, and I want to thank them for making everyone forget about the 2008 Detroit Lions.
Enjoy week eight everyone! Go Lions!
Happy Halloween!
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Saturday, October 31, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Week Eight Picks
Week eight picks
What a week we have coming up. Last week was the week of the blowout, with at least five teams completely kicking the crap out of their opponents. This week we have Brett Favre … at Lambeau. And nothing else really matters. Except that Matt Ryan and Drew Brees square off in a battle for the NFC South, and Denver faces its toughest test yet in Baltimore, and the Giants look to avoid their third straight loss in Philly for a game that has playoff implications written all over it, and a bunch of playoff-fringe teams battle for positioning and desperately needed wins. All of that. Plus Brett Favre, in Lambeau. Wearing purple. Going to be an awesome week. Onto the picks…
Seattle @ Dallas
Dallas is coming off their best game of the season, a convincing win over Atlanta. Seattle is rested, coming off a bye and needing a win. Miles Austin is a great receiver and he’s proven that over the last two games, but the days of him surprising defenses are over; Dallas is going to have to get Witten and the running game going to keep the ball away from Seattle’s passing, which is good enough to really destroy Dallas’s mediocre defense. I don’t trust Tony Romo. I do like Seattle. However, this looks like one of those games that reminds you that certain divisions (the NFC East) are just superior to others (the NFC West). Cowboys win a close one, 30-27.
Houston @ Buffalo
Houston is hot, winning two games in a row against solid teams, and really wants to break away from their 8-8 reputation with a win here. It shouldn’t be tough to beat Ryan Fitzpatrick and a Bills team that couldn’t move that ball against Carolina last week. Houston winning its third straight will just set the stage for a losing streak later in the season and give them a more dramatic but ultimately just as mediocre season. Texans 24-10.
St. Louis @ Detroit
The Rams are terrible, Marc Bulger is terrible, the game is in Detroit, Calvin Johnson should be on the field… I know it’s not going to be easy. I know that Steven Jackson is a beast, and the Lions still stink, and the Rams have the coaching advantage … but still … I’m convinced …the Lions are going to win.
I have no idea of what the score might be … it depends how many stupid plays will we allow and how many mental mistakes we make … special teams and penalties are going to be key in a game between two moronic, talentless teams. I’ll guess 27-16. Lions.
Denver @ Baltimore
The Broncos are 6-0. They should be 5-1 if not for a ridiculously lucky play in week one. They would be 4-2 if Tom Brady wasn’t still in rehab three weeks ago. They’d be 3-3 if San Diego didn’t wait until midseason to actually start competing every year. Denver is, at best, a mediocre team. Kyle Orton is still their quarterback, and they can’t decide which crappy running back to use. Their defense racked up sacks against the Browns and Raiders and now everyone thinks they’re way better than they are. On a scale of 1-100, Denver is about a 77. Baltimore, meanwhile, is a straight 92. They are the better team in every facet of the game: passing, running, defense, special teams. They have probably the five best players in this game (I’m not a big Brandon Marshall fan). Baltimore is going to win this one. Easily. Ravens by 18.
NY Giants @ Philadelphia
Since I picked the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl back in August, I want to give this game to them. But I can’t see a team as good as the Giants losing three straight. The Eagles are battling injuries (so are the Giants) and inconsistencies, and New York is just a better and more well-rounded team. This game should be a beauty, and will ultimately come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. Amazingly, I have to side with Eli Manning. I know, I can’t believe it either. Giants by six.
Miami @ NY Jets
A rematch of sorts. The Dolphins surprised the Jets a few weeks ago and trounced them. Now Miami actually looks like the better team; but the question is, how will they respond to last week’s heart-crushing loss to New Orleans, which sent the Fins down to 2-4? I like New York in this game because I don’t think they’ll lose to Miami twice in one year. Jets by 14.
Cleveland @ Chicago
Here is an interesting match between two teams that lost last week by a combined 70 points. As bad as Chicago was, Cleveland was even worse. Derek Anderson really is the only rival for JaMarcus when it comes to quarterback stupidity. Cutler, on the other hand, is an up-and-down QB who tends to take advantage of inferior opponents like Cleveland. Bears should roll in this one. 27-9.
San Francisco @ Indianapolis
Ah yes, the classic matchup between former #1 overall picks Peyton Manning and Alex Smith, two guys with illustrious careers and a future spot in Canton. Well, except for Alex Smith. The Colts are full-speed ahead and cruising. There is no stopping them. Indy by 24.
Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Will Tennessee finally get it first win of the season against the equally lousy Jags, or be foiled again? Now that they are eliminated from playoff contention and have had a week to think about their 59 point loss to New England, we might see a demoralized Titans team that has completely given up. Heck, their coach was spotted wearing a Peyton Manning jersey during their off week. Seriously. The Jags, who are also coming off a bye, need to win to keep pace with Houston in the AFC South, and I expect them to do just that. Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 20.
Oakland @ San Diego
I’d like to thank the Raiders for making everyone forget about how bad the Lions are. Bolts by 25.
Carolina @ Arizona
The Cardinals play on Sunday night for the second straight week. Looks like the league is doing everything they can to expose us to as much of Larry Fitzgerald’s smile as possible. Kurt Warner should have a field day against the poor Panthers and Delhomme is one step closer to the bench after this one. AZ wins big, 35-13.
Minnesota @ Green Bay
And here it is. The reason for all the comebacks. Favre returns to Lambeau to a smattering of boos, cheers, and hisses. The circus surrounding the stadium will be more memorable than the game itself. If Favre is smart, he’ll allow Adrian Peterson to win this game singlehandedly, but I think we’re due for a “Favre-tries-to-do-too-much” type of game. The Packers D has given up just three points over its last two contests, which is impressive no matter who you play. They’re ready for this. This is a matter of pride. Green Bay is winning this game and splitting the series. I hope both teams make the playoffs so they can play one more time. Packers by 10.
Atlanta @ New Orleans
This should be one heck of a Monday Nighter. Brees and Ryan might be the two best QBs in the NFC and these are two vastly improved defenses. Well, New Orleans’ is. Not sure yet on Atlanta. Drew Brees will probably have little trouble picking them apart, and the Superdome isn’t going to be easy on Matt Ryan, who is still only 20 games into his young career. I think the Saints roll to 7-0, by a score of 34-20.
What a week we have coming up. Last week was the week of the blowout, with at least five teams completely kicking the crap out of their opponents. This week we have Brett Favre … at Lambeau. And nothing else really matters. Except that Matt Ryan and Drew Brees square off in a battle for the NFC South, and Denver faces its toughest test yet in Baltimore, and the Giants look to avoid their third straight loss in Philly for a game that has playoff implications written all over it, and a bunch of playoff-fringe teams battle for positioning and desperately needed wins. All of that. Plus Brett Favre, in Lambeau. Wearing purple. Going to be an awesome week. Onto the picks…
Seattle @ Dallas
Dallas is coming off their best game of the season, a convincing win over Atlanta. Seattle is rested, coming off a bye and needing a win. Miles Austin is a great receiver and he’s proven that over the last two games, but the days of him surprising defenses are over; Dallas is going to have to get Witten and the running game going to keep the ball away from Seattle’s passing, which is good enough to really destroy Dallas’s mediocre defense. I don’t trust Tony Romo. I do like Seattle. However, this looks like one of those games that reminds you that certain divisions (the NFC East) are just superior to others (the NFC West). Cowboys win a close one, 30-27.
Houston @ Buffalo
Houston is hot, winning two games in a row against solid teams, and really wants to break away from their 8-8 reputation with a win here. It shouldn’t be tough to beat Ryan Fitzpatrick and a Bills team that couldn’t move that ball against Carolina last week. Houston winning its third straight will just set the stage for a losing streak later in the season and give them a more dramatic but ultimately just as mediocre season. Texans 24-10.
St. Louis @ Detroit
The Rams are terrible, Marc Bulger is terrible, the game is in Detroit, Calvin Johnson should be on the field… I know it’s not going to be easy. I know that Steven Jackson is a beast, and the Lions still stink, and the Rams have the coaching advantage … but still … I’m convinced …the Lions are going to win.
I have no idea of what the score might be … it depends how many stupid plays will we allow and how many mental mistakes we make … special teams and penalties are going to be key in a game between two moronic, talentless teams. I’ll guess 27-16. Lions.
Denver @ Baltimore
The Broncos are 6-0. They should be 5-1 if not for a ridiculously lucky play in week one. They would be 4-2 if Tom Brady wasn’t still in rehab three weeks ago. They’d be 3-3 if San Diego didn’t wait until midseason to actually start competing every year. Denver is, at best, a mediocre team. Kyle Orton is still their quarterback, and they can’t decide which crappy running back to use. Their defense racked up sacks against the Browns and Raiders and now everyone thinks they’re way better than they are. On a scale of 1-100, Denver is about a 77. Baltimore, meanwhile, is a straight 92. They are the better team in every facet of the game: passing, running, defense, special teams. They have probably the five best players in this game (I’m not a big Brandon Marshall fan). Baltimore is going to win this one. Easily. Ravens by 18.
NY Giants @ Philadelphia
Since I picked the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl back in August, I want to give this game to them. But I can’t see a team as good as the Giants losing three straight. The Eagles are battling injuries (so are the Giants) and inconsistencies, and New York is just a better and more well-rounded team. This game should be a beauty, and will ultimately come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. Amazingly, I have to side with Eli Manning. I know, I can’t believe it either. Giants by six.
Miami @ NY Jets
A rematch of sorts. The Dolphins surprised the Jets a few weeks ago and trounced them. Now Miami actually looks like the better team; but the question is, how will they respond to last week’s heart-crushing loss to New Orleans, which sent the Fins down to 2-4? I like New York in this game because I don’t think they’ll lose to Miami twice in one year. Jets by 14.
Cleveland @ Chicago
Here is an interesting match between two teams that lost last week by a combined 70 points. As bad as Chicago was, Cleveland was even worse. Derek Anderson really is the only rival for JaMarcus when it comes to quarterback stupidity. Cutler, on the other hand, is an up-and-down QB who tends to take advantage of inferior opponents like Cleveland. Bears should roll in this one. 27-9.
San Francisco @ Indianapolis
Ah yes, the classic matchup between former #1 overall picks Peyton Manning and Alex Smith, two guys with illustrious careers and a future spot in Canton. Well, except for Alex Smith. The Colts are full-speed ahead and cruising. There is no stopping them. Indy by 24.
Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Will Tennessee finally get it first win of the season against the equally lousy Jags, or be foiled again? Now that they are eliminated from playoff contention and have had a week to think about their 59 point loss to New England, we might see a demoralized Titans team that has completely given up. Heck, their coach was spotted wearing a Peyton Manning jersey during their off week. Seriously. The Jags, who are also coming off a bye, need to win to keep pace with Houston in the AFC South, and I expect them to do just that. Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 20.
Oakland @ San Diego
I’d like to thank the Raiders for making everyone forget about how bad the Lions are. Bolts by 25.
Carolina @ Arizona
The Cardinals play on Sunday night for the second straight week. Looks like the league is doing everything they can to expose us to as much of Larry Fitzgerald’s smile as possible. Kurt Warner should have a field day against the poor Panthers and Delhomme is one step closer to the bench after this one. AZ wins big, 35-13.
Minnesota @ Green Bay
And here it is. The reason for all the comebacks. Favre returns to Lambeau to a smattering of boos, cheers, and hisses. The circus surrounding the stadium will be more memorable than the game itself. If Favre is smart, he’ll allow Adrian Peterson to win this game singlehandedly, but I think we’re due for a “Favre-tries-to-do-too-much” type of game. The Packers D has given up just three points over its last two contests, which is impressive no matter who you play. They’re ready for this. This is a matter of pride. Green Bay is winning this game and splitting the series. I hope both teams make the playoffs so they can play one more time. Packers by 10.
Atlanta @ New Orleans
This should be one heck of a Monday Nighter. Brees and Ryan might be the two best QBs in the NFC and these are two vastly improved defenses. Well, New Orleans’ is. Not sure yet on Atlanta. Drew Brees will probably have little trouble picking them apart, and the Superdome isn’t going to be easy on Matt Ryan, who is still only 20 games into his young career. I think the Saints roll to 7-0, by a score of 34-20.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
NBA season tips off tonight
The Celtics just beat the Cavs! The Central Division is the Pistons to control now!
Yeah....
here are the results from this week in the NFL:
New England vs. Tampa Bay
Picked: Pats by 13
Actual: Pats by 28
Comments: New England has won its last two games by a combined score of 94-7. Is it safe to say that they’re “back” yet?
Colts @ Rams
Picked: Colts by 28
Actual: Colts 38
Comments: As expected.
Green Bay @ Cleveland
Picked: Pack by 17
Actual: Pack by 32
Comments: Listened to this game on the radio on the drive from Pittsburgh to GR and was thoroughly impressed with the Packers from start to finish. Then listened to a bunch of Browns fans call in and complain and I felt very sympathetic. Good momentum builder for Green Bay as they head into the most anticipated game ever at Lambeau.
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh
Picked: Steelers by 6
Actual: Steelers by 10
Comments: Yet again, Pittsburgh wins a game thanks to the mistakes of their opponent. They were anemic on offense but got the victory thanks to some luck and two big plays on defense. I believe the Vikings were the better team in this one.
San Diego @ Kansas City
Picked: Bolts by 15
Actual: Bolts by 30
Comments: San Diego left little doubt that they can still be a playoff team. Beating the Chiefs isn’t that impressive, but winning by 30 is always impressive on the road.
New York Jets @ Raiders
Picked: Jets by 20
Actual: Jets by 38
Comments: Apparently Mark Sanchez was ridiculed for eating a hot dog on the sidelines during this game. He could have held a hotdog in one hand while playing quarterback and still outplayed JaMarcus Russell, who was pulled in the second half. Another complete embarrassment for Raider nation.
Atlanta @ Dallas
Picked: Cowboys by 4
Actual: Cowboys by 16
Comments: Miles Austin is definitely legit; consequently, I expect Roy Williams to fake a season-ending injury so he doesn’t have to embarrass himself. The ever-inconsistent Tony Romo strikes again.
New Orleans @ Miami
Picked: Saints by 11
Actual: Saints by 12
Comments: Listened to this one on the radio as well, and holy crap, what a game! New Orleans deserves credit for an amazing comeback, but it was the Dolphins who blew this one. Too much Wildcat if you ask me. Brees throws three INTs and still wins the game. He is scary.
Chicago @ Cincinnati
Picked: Bengals by 7
Actual: Bengals by 35
Comments: Caught the first half of this contest on the radio, and couldn’t believe how perfect the Bengals were on every single play, both sides of the ball. They were flawless. I’m saying it now, Cincinnati is a dark-horse Super Bowl contender. Jay Cutler is the unlikable, spiteful, un-cute version of Tony Romo.
Philidelphia @ Washington
Picked: Eagles by 13
Actual: Eagles by 10
Comments: Philly killed them and the score makes the game appear closer than it really was. Washington is a trainwreck.
Arizona @ New York Giants
Picked: Giants by 18
Actual: Cards by 7
Comments: Oh, I forget that Eli Manning is still a dope. My mistake. Also, this was the fourth Sunday night game in a row that I picked wrong. It's getting ridiculous.
San Francisco @ Houston
Picked: Niners by 6
Actual: Texans by 3
Comments: Alex Smith led a brilliant comeback from 21-0, but the Texans held on. Owen Daniels has established himself firmly in the elite echelon of tight ends.
Buffalo @ Carolina
Picked: Panthers by 20
Actual: Bills by 11
Comments: Jake Delhomme gets worse with each passing day (pun intended). If Carolina can’t win at home against Buffalo, they need to re-think some major personnel issues. Either that, or Ryan Fitzpatrick is unbeatable. I’m thinking it’s the first one.
Went 10-3 this week. 68-31 on the season. Not too shabby.
Yeah....
here are the results from this week in the NFL:
New England vs. Tampa Bay
Picked: Pats by 13
Actual: Pats by 28
Comments: New England has won its last two games by a combined score of 94-7. Is it safe to say that they’re “back” yet?
Colts @ Rams
Picked: Colts by 28
Actual: Colts 38
Comments: As expected.
Green Bay @ Cleveland
Picked: Pack by 17
Actual: Pack by 32
Comments: Listened to this game on the radio on the drive from Pittsburgh to GR and was thoroughly impressed with the Packers from start to finish. Then listened to a bunch of Browns fans call in and complain and I felt very sympathetic. Good momentum builder for Green Bay as they head into the most anticipated game ever at Lambeau.
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh
Picked: Steelers by 6
Actual: Steelers by 10
Comments: Yet again, Pittsburgh wins a game thanks to the mistakes of their opponent. They were anemic on offense but got the victory thanks to some luck and two big plays on defense. I believe the Vikings were the better team in this one.
San Diego @ Kansas City
Picked: Bolts by 15
Actual: Bolts by 30
Comments: San Diego left little doubt that they can still be a playoff team. Beating the Chiefs isn’t that impressive, but winning by 30 is always impressive on the road.
New York Jets @ Raiders
Picked: Jets by 20
Actual: Jets by 38
Comments: Apparently Mark Sanchez was ridiculed for eating a hot dog on the sidelines during this game. He could have held a hotdog in one hand while playing quarterback and still outplayed JaMarcus Russell, who was pulled in the second half. Another complete embarrassment for Raider nation.
Atlanta @ Dallas
Picked: Cowboys by 4
Actual: Cowboys by 16
Comments: Miles Austin is definitely legit; consequently, I expect Roy Williams to fake a season-ending injury so he doesn’t have to embarrass himself. The ever-inconsistent Tony Romo strikes again.
New Orleans @ Miami
Picked: Saints by 11
Actual: Saints by 12
Comments: Listened to this one on the radio as well, and holy crap, what a game! New Orleans deserves credit for an amazing comeback, but it was the Dolphins who blew this one. Too much Wildcat if you ask me. Brees throws three INTs and still wins the game. He is scary.
Chicago @ Cincinnati
Picked: Bengals by 7
Actual: Bengals by 35
Comments: Caught the first half of this contest on the radio, and couldn’t believe how perfect the Bengals were on every single play, both sides of the ball. They were flawless. I’m saying it now, Cincinnati is a dark-horse Super Bowl contender. Jay Cutler is the unlikable, spiteful, un-cute version of Tony Romo.
Philidelphia @ Washington
Picked: Eagles by 13
Actual: Eagles by 10
Comments: Philly killed them and the score makes the game appear closer than it really was. Washington is a trainwreck.
Arizona @ New York Giants
Picked: Giants by 18
Actual: Cards by 7
Comments: Oh, I forget that Eli Manning is still a dope. My mistake. Also, this was the fourth Sunday night game in a row that I picked wrong. It's getting ridiculous.
San Francisco @ Houston
Picked: Niners by 6
Actual: Texans by 3
Comments: Alex Smith led a brilliant comeback from 21-0, but the Texans held on. Owen Daniels has established himself firmly in the elite echelon of tight ends.
Buffalo @ Carolina
Picked: Panthers by 20
Actual: Bills by 11
Comments: Jake Delhomme gets worse with each passing day (pun intended). If Carolina can’t win at home against Buffalo, they need to re-think some major personnel issues. Either that, or Ryan Fitzpatrick is unbeatable. I’m thinking it’s the first one.
Went 10-3 this week. 68-31 on the season. Not too shabby.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
week 7 picks
Okay, so my picks for week 6 resulted in a dissppointing 8-6 record, which brings my season total from ... 50-22 ... to 58-28. Not great, but not awful. Week 7 looks a little easier to predict ...
Week Seven Picks
New England vs. Tampa Bay in LONDON
Let’s start overseas with 0-6 Tampa Bay against the Patriots, who are fresh off a 59-0 snowy massacre. Scoring 59 points is amazing, but scoring EIGHT touchdowns IN THE SNOW? Just unbelievable. One of the best offensive performances I’ve ever seen. Of course I am going to pick New England, but let’s not underestimate the impact of playing in London. The long flight, the time change, the unfamiliar environment. The soccer-loving chaps drinking tea up in the bleachers. It’s going to be strange. On one hand, Tom Brady and the Run-Up-The-Score Bullies might decide to take their show international and put on a scoring clinic; on the other hand, they might be so exhausted from the travel and break in routine that they sluggishly beat the Bucs 23-10. That’s what I’m expecting. But I’m hoping for another thrashing, since I own Brady in both fantasy leagues and had a lot of fun with last weeks’ 6 TDs and 380 yards. One thing's for sure, though … Londoners will be flooding the streets to catch a glimpse of Tampa Bay quarterback and international sensation, Josh Johnson.
Indianapolis @ St. Louis
Last week the Rams were frisky enough to force OT against Jacksonville. That means they’re all out of gas this week as they host the rested Colts. Manning, after a bye, against the Rams. Just totally unfair. Colts by 28.
Green Bay @ Cleveland
Cleveland has played surprisingly decent in three straight contests; almost beating Cincinnati in OT, beating Buffalo, and keeping up with the Steelers for most of the game last week. Their defense is not playing horribly, and Josh Cribbs is electric returning kicks and running some Wildcat. The Packers, meanwhile, started the season with some lackluster games but are coming off their best performance, a 26-0 shutout of the pathetic Lions backups. Rodgers is playing at a high level and the receivers are doing a great job; however, the Packers are not a team on the rise right now. The offensive line is a wreck, giving up the most sacks in the NFL thus far. The defense seems to have a lot of confusion in the 3-4, and completely fails to use Aaron Kampman, their best pass rusher, as a pass rusher. It’s baffling. Fortunately for the Packers, they’re playing against Derek Anderson; but when they face a competent, cerebral quarterback who can take advantage of their confusion, the GB defense will be exposed in a big way. Not this week though, as Green Bay rolls 27-10.
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh
The undefeated Vikings visit Heinz Field on Sunday to play their toughest game of the season. By far. Don’t forget, Minnesota is two very close plays away from being 4-2 – a hailmary and a missed 44 yard field goal, so just because they are 6-0 and Pittsburgh is 4-2 doesn’t mean Minnesota is the better team. Polamalu is back at 100% and as a general rule, when the best defensive player in the league returns to the field, good things happen. That being said, it takes a lot more than one player to stop Adrian Peterson, and as long as he is running for 4 or 5 yards a carry, it opens up the passing game for Brett Favre. Don’t expect Pittsburgh to keep Minnesota off the scoreboard. The Steelers announced they are officially changing from Willie to Rashard at RB for the rest of the season; a smart move, considering that Willie’s contract is expiring and Rashard is the future of the backfield, but a risky move because Mendenhall has little experience. But you know what? It doesn't matter, because this Steelers offense is all about the passing game. The offensive line has come around and Roethlisberger has really improved his game and his pocket presence; plus he is still lethal outside the pocket and on the run. He would rather just throw on first down than waste time with little running plays. He's an annoying guy to watch but he gets the job done. Just like last weeks Baltimore-Minnesota game, I expect a high-scoring shootout between these two teams known for their defenses. Steelers win 30-24.
San Francisco @ Houston
Are either one of these teams for real? I can’t decide. San Fran looked awesome for a few weeks, and Houston has basically played to the level of their competition. Michael Crabtree starts in his first NFL game and faces a pretty non-threatening Texans secondary; he could be the deep threat San Fran has lacked for years. Or, he could be a greedy little drama queen. Yeah, probably the second one. I do like the Niners in this game though. 20-14.
San Diego @ Kansas City
Chargers absolutely must win this game. And they will. SD 27, KC 12.
Buffalo @ Carolina
After starting the season 0-3, Carolina is going to be 3-3. People will get all wild and excited as a result, but undeservedly so. All the Panthers will have accomplished is beating Washington, Tampa, and now Buffalo. They still stink. But not as bad as Buffalo, who will be led by none other than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Big day forthcoming for the Carolina running backs; Panthers by 20.
New York Jets @ Oakland
Last week was supposed to be the week where an angry Jets team proved they were the real deal and stomped on a crappy team; I even predicted Mark Sanchez would have “a career day.” Well, 5 INTs later, Sanchez single-handedly lost the game to the Buffalo Bills. I guess the worst game of his career qualifies as a career day, right? Now they travel to the west coast to face the red-hot Raiders! Well, sort of reddish hot. More like a calm simmer. But the good news for Sanchez is he certainly won’t be the worst quarterback in this game. That would be impossible. Tate Forcier would be a better NFL quarterback than JaMarcus, and he runs in a spread offense. Every team in the league has at least two backups who are better than JaMarcus, maybe more depending on if they have any receivers who played QB in high school. Russell is an absolute joke. I have my concerns about this Jets team, especially now with nosetackle Kris Jenkins lost for the year, but there is just no way in hell the Raiders win two games in a row. Jets by 20.
Atlanta @ Dallas
I like Atlanta more as a team, but I'll pick Dallas at home in this one. Cowboys 28-24.
New Orleans @ Miami
Whenever a team is as hot and seemingly unstoppable as the Saints are right now, you always worry about a potential let-down when they face an overlookable opponent, such as Miami. The Fins are coming off a bye and Chad Henne has played really well in his first two starts. That all being said, Drew Brees isn’t being stopped. By anyone. Saints 31-20.
Chicago @ Cincinnati
After watching the Bears-Falcons on Sunday night, I have plenty of concerns and not much optimism for this Chicago team. The defense seems to be unfocused and vulnerable; Matt Ryan routinely made them pay for being out of position. The offense underutilizes its best player, Matt Forte, and Cutler forces too many deep balls to receivers who aren’t big enough or strong enough to make a play on the ball. Cincinnati’s defense was shellacked by the Texans last week, but their offense continues to play well, and Cedric Benson continues to baffle me with his great play. This has all the makings of a shootout, and I see the Bengals coming out of top. Cincinnati 42-35.
Arizona @ New York Giants
Boy, did the Giants get lucky last week. The loss to the Saints dropped them to 5-1, but then their primary rival in the NFC East (Philly) lost to the sickly Raiders to drop down to 3-2, keeping the Giants ahead by a game and a half. I still can’t believe Philly lost that game. Anyway, this should be a bounce-back week for the Giants defense, which was abused last week by Drew Brees. Arizona’s offense is good, but its not that good, and Boldin is probably going to miss the game. I like the Giants at home, 31-13.
Philadelphia @ Washington
On Monday night, the Redskins primary goal will be to not be embarrassed on national television. They just stripped Jim Zorn of his play-calling duties in hopes that he would quit, which didn’t happen; they benched Jason Campbell last week but will send him back in against a great Eagles defense; the Skins defense was run all over by Larry Johnson last week; and Washington has become a media punching bag for their mismanagement and failure to execute on the field. Their last three games have been against cupcakes; now they face a pot roast in the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly wins, but not as convincingly as some might expect. 23-10.
Titans @ Bye Week
Gotta go with the bye week in this one, although it should be close. Bye week 21-20.
Question of the week: Now that Mark Sanchez is completely useless, who is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year?
We haven't seem much from Moreno or anything from Beanie Wells, and none of the receivers (Maclin, Harvin, Hicks) have distanced themselves from each other. If Stafford comes back healthy and strings together a few games and a few wins, is he in the discussion? Right now, my vote would be for Moreno for lack of a better option. Heck, maybe Crabtree will have an unbelievable 9 weeks to finish the season and he'll win the award. Anything could happen; with Sanchez falling fast, this is going to be extremely interesting.
Lions are on a bye this week and then face the Rams! 2-5, here we come!
Week Seven Picks
New England vs. Tampa Bay in LONDON
Let’s start overseas with 0-6 Tampa Bay against the Patriots, who are fresh off a 59-0 snowy massacre. Scoring 59 points is amazing, but scoring EIGHT touchdowns IN THE SNOW? Just unbelievable. One of the best offensive performances I’ve ever seen. Of course I am going to pick New England, but let’s not underestimate the impact of playing in London. The long flight, the time change, the unfamiliar environment. The soccer-loving chaps drinking tea up in the bleachers. It’s going to be strange. On one hand, Tom Brady and the Run-Up-The-Score Bullies might decide to take their show international and put on a scoring clinic; on the other hand, they might be so exhausted from the travel and break in routine that they sluggishly beat the Bucs 23-10. That’s what I’m expecting. But I’m hoping for another thrashing, since I own Brady in both fantasy leagues and had a lot of fun with last weeks’ 6 TDs and 380 yards. One thing's for sure, though … Londoners will be flooding the streets to catch a glimpse of Tampa Bay quarterback and international sensation, Josh Johnson.
Indianapolis @ St. Louis
Last week the Rams were frisky enough to force OT against Jacksonville. That means they’re all out of gas this week as they host the rested Colts. Manning, after a bye, against the Rams. Just totally unfair. Colts by 28.
Green Bay @ Cleveland
Cleveland has played surprisingly decent in three straight contests; almost beating Cincinnati in OT, beating Buffalo, and keeping up with the Steelers for most of the game last week. Their defense is not playing horribly, and Josh Cribbs is electric returning kicks and running some Wildcat. The Packers, meanwhile, started the season with some lackluster games but are coming off their best performance, a 26-0 shutout of the pathetic Lions backups. Rodgers is playing at a high level and the receivers are doing a great job; however, the Packers are not a team on the rise right now. The offensive line is a wreck, giving up the most sacks in the NFL thus far. The defense seems to have a lot of confusion in the 3-4, and completely fails to use Aaron Kampman, their best pass rusher, as a pass rusher. It’s baffling. Fortunately for the Packers, they’re playing against Derek Anderson; but when they face a competent, cerebral quarterback who can take advantage of their confusion, the GB defense will be exposed in a big way. Not this week though, as Green Bay rolls 27-10.
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh
The undefeated Vikings visit Heinz Field on Sunday to play their toughest game of the season. By far. Don’t forget, Minnesota is two very close plays away from being 4-2 – a hailmary and a missed 44 yard field goal, so just because they are 6-0 and Pittsburgh is 4-2 doesn’t mean Minnesota is the better team. Polamalu is back at 100% and as a general rule, when the best defensive player in the league returns to the field, good things happen. That being said, it takes a lot more than one player to stop Adrian Peterson, and as long as he is running for 4 or 5 yards a carry, it opens up the passing game for Brett Favre. Don’t expect Pittsburgh to keep Minnesota off the scoreboard. The Steelers announced they are officially changing from Willie to Rashard at RB for the rest of the season; a smart move, considering that Willie’s contract is expiring and Rashard is the future of the backfield, but a risky move because Mendenhall has little experience. But you know what? It doesn't matter, because this Steelers offense is all about the passing game. The offensive line has come around and Roethlisberger has really improved his game and his pocket presence; plus he is still lethal outside the pocket and on the run. He would rather just throw on first down than waste time with little running plays. He's an annoying guy to watch but he gets the job done. Just like last weeks Baltimore-Minnesota game, I expect a high-scoring shootout between these two teams known for their defenses. Steelers win 30-24.
San Francisco @ Houston
Are either one of these teams for real? I can’t decide. San Fran looked awesome for a few weeks, and Houston has basically played to the level of their competition. Michael Crabtree starts in his first NFL game and faces a pretty non-threatening Texans secondary; he could be the deep threat San Fran has lacked for years. Or, he could be a greedy little drama queen. Yeah, probably the second one. I do like the Niners in this game though. 20-14.
San Diego @ Kansas City
Chargers absolutely must win this game. And they will. SD 27, KC 12.
Buffalo @ Carolina
After starting the season 0-3, Carolina is going to be 3-3. People will get all wild and excited as a result, but undeservedly so. All the Panthers will have accomplished is beating Washington, Tampa, and now Buffalo. They still stink. But not as bad as Buffalo, who will be led by none other than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Big day forthcoming for the Carolina running backs; Panthers by 20.
New York Jets @ Oakland
Last week was supposed to be the week where an angry Jets team proved they were the real deal and stomped on a crappy team; I even predicted Mark Sanchez would have “a career day.” Well, 5 INTs later, Sanchez single-handedly lost the game to the Buffalo Bills. I guess the worst game of his career qualifies as a career day, right? Now they travel to the west coast to face the red-hot Raiders! Well, sort of reddish hot. More like a calm simmer. But the good news for Sanchez is he certainly won’t be the worst quarterback in this game. That would be impossible. Tate Forcier would be a better NFL quarterback than JaMarcus, and he runs in a spread offense. Every team in the league has at least two backups who are better than JaMarcus, maybe more depending on if they have any receivers who played QB in high school. Russell is an absolute joke. I have my concerns about this Jets team, especially now with nosetackle Kris Jenkins lost for the year, but there is just no way in hell the Raiders win two games in a row. Jets by 20.
Atlanta @ Dallas
I like Atlanta more as a team, but I'll pick Dallas at home in this one. Cowboys 28-24.
New Orleans @ Miami
Whenever a team is as hot and seemingly unstoppable as the Saints are right now, you always worry about a potential let-down when they face an overlookable opponent, such as Miami. The Fins are coming off a bye and Chad Henne has played really well in his first two starts. That all being said, Drew Brees isn’t being stopped. By anyone. Saints 31-20.
Chicago @ Cincinnati
After watching the Bears-Falcons on Sunday night, I have plenty of concerns and not much optimism for this Chicago team. The defense seems to be unfocused and vulnerable; Matt Ryan routinely made them pay for being out of position. The offense underutilizes its best player, Matt Forte, and Cutler forces too many deep balls to receivers who aren’t big enough or strong enough to make a play on the ball. Cincinnati’s defense was shellacked by the Texans last week, but their offense continues to play well, and Cedric Benson continues to baffle me with his great play. This has all the makings of a shootout, and I see the Bengals coming out of top. Cincinnati 42-35.
Arizona @ New York Giants
Boy, did the Giants get lucky last week. The loss to the Saints dropped them to 5-1, but then their primary rival in the NFC East (Philly) lost to the sickly Raiders to drop down to 3-2, keeping the Giants ahead by a game and a half. I still can’t believe Philly lost that game. Anyway, this should be a bounce-back week for the Giants defense, which was abused last week by Drew Brees. Arizona’s offense is good, but its not that good, and Boldin is probably going to miss the game. I like the Giants at home, 31-13.
Philadelphia @ Washington
On Monday night, the Redskins primary goal will be to not be embarrassed on national television. They just stripped Jim Zorn of his play-calling duties in hopes that he would quit, which didn’t happen; they benched Jason Campbell last week but will send him back in against a great Eagles defense; the Skins defense was run all over by Larry Johnson last week; and Washington has become a media punching bag for their mismanagement and failure to execute on the field. Their last three games have been against cupcakes; now they face a pot roast in the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly wins, but not as convincingly as some might expect. 23-10.
Titans @ Bye Week
Gotta go with the bye week in this one, although it should be close. Bye week 21-20.
Question of the week: Now that Mark Sanchez is completely useless, who is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year?
We haven't seem much from Moreno or anything from Beanie Wells, and none of the receivers (Maclin, Harvin, Hicks) have distanced themselves from each other. If Stafford comes back healthy and strings together a few games and a few wins, is he in the discussion? Right now, my vote would be for Moreno for lack of a better option. Heck, maybe Crabtree will have an unbelievable 9 weeks to finish the season and he'll win the award. Anything could happen; with Sanchez falling fast, this is going to be extremely interesting.
Lions are on a bye this week and then face the Rams! 2-5, here we come!
Saturday, October 17, 2009
S & D week 6
Studs and Duds: Week Six
Hey guys. So let’s get right into it… here are the players I think will be great and the players I would avoid in fantasy football for week 6.
STUDS:
Mike Sims-Walker
Last week he burned everybody with his last-second no-show for violating some unknown team rule. This week owners will be hesitant to play the little known Jacksonville receiver. Don’t be. The Jags play host to the horrifyingly terrible Rams. MSW is in line for 100+ yards without breakin a sweat.
Knowshon Moreno
He is one of those guys who is verging on ‘Is He An Automatic Start?’ status right now. This week will be a big positive for him, against a Chargers defense that just isn’t equipped to stop anybody.
Steve Smith, Carolina
This will be the first week that Steve Smith 1.0 outperforms Steve Smith 2.0.
Joe Flacco
Just a hunch that this Ravens-Vikings game is high-scoring and Flacco has a big day. In one of my yahoo leagues I chose to play Derrick Mason over Dwayne Bowe. We’ll see how that works out for me.
Donald Driver
Obviously all Packers are favorable against the Lions, but I believe Donald will actually have a better game than Greg Jennings. Jennings is the better deep-threat , but Driver’s the better possession guy and it’s so ridiculously easy to throw against Detroit. Driver has scored in two straight games against the Lions and won’t have any trouble keeping the streak alive.
Lee Evans
With Revis blanketing Terrell Owens and the Bills losing early, Trent Edwards will be looking deep in Evans direction repeatedly in the second half. At least one of those looks should be successful.
Brent Celek, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy
It’s easy to justify playing anyone against the Raiders, but now that Asomugha seems to be back to full health you can bet he’ll have DeSean Jackson covered. Along with McNabb and Westbrook (obvious plays), I’d start all three of these guys as well.
Jonathon Stewart
The Panthers will put up big points against Tampa Bay and Stewart should benefit in the second half with some garbage yards.
All Steelers, especially Willie Parker
This week is the perfect storm at Heinz Field: All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu returns to the field, Pittsburgh plays at home coming off consecutive wins, and they face the lifeless Browns, their favorite “rival” to beat up on. This should be nothing short of utter domination. Ward, Holmes, Roethlisberger are sure things. I also like Heath Miller in this game. But you may be surprised to know that I prefer Parker to the red-hot Rashard Mendenhall. Not sure why. I just think it’s still Parker’s job for a few more weeks.
Mohamed Massoquoi
Not sure how to spell his first or hi slast name, but now that M.M. is the Browns #1 receiver, I think he’ll produce accordingly. Which isn’t saying much, but it is something. In a game that they’ll certainly be losing, against an aggressive defense which lacks shutdown cornerbacks, the Browns will depend on M.M. for big plays to keep them in the game. I think he’ll come up with at least one.
David Clowney
This week’s Miles Austin.
David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Mark Sanchez
There are a LOT of really obvious starts at QB this week, chief among them Rodgers, Brady, McNabb, and Roethlisberger. But there are also a couple of starters on bye weeks and a few others with tough matchups. Garrard (against the Rams), Cassel (against Washington), and Sanchez (against Buffalo) are three guys I would play over, say, Warner (vs. SEA), Rivers (vs. DEN), or Favre (vs. BAL).
Brandon Jacobs
He should be an utterly obvious start every week, but he’s been outproduced by Ahmad Bradshaw a few weeks in a row now. After going on some radio show and complaining about his role in the offense, Jacobs seems to be a player in potential turmoil. I am concerned about his long-term role as the Giants RB, but I wouldn’t start benching him in fantasy football just yet. The Saints aren’t an easy matchup, but he’s still a stud, and he’s still the starter on the team with the best O-line in football.
Larry Johnson
Bet you didn’t expect to see his name of the STUDS list, did you? He’s a one-week hit against Washington, and by ‘hit’ I mean you can probably trust him for 60 yards and a TD. How ironic that Albert Haynesworth, the player I used to be obsessed with, is now the centerpiece of one of the most vulnerable defenses in the NFL. I wonder if they still think he’s worth $100 million.
Brandon Pettigrew
With Calvin Johnson doubtful and Stafford out, someone’s going to have to catch the ball for Detroit, and my first instinct was to think Bryant Johnson. I do think he’ll have an okay week, but not quite a STUD week. Against the shutdown corners in Green Bay and with their high-pressure defense, I think Pettigrew will have to be used as a safety option for Culpepper and will catch 6 or 7 balls for 80+ yards. I’m hoping he plays his best game yet and shows why he was a first round pick.
Donnie Avery
I drafted this buffoon in my two main leagues and had big expectations. After three weeks, Avery had totaled two fumbles and less than 100 yards; he was dropped in both leagues. But this week, with Bulger back under center and the Rams against the Jags (who rank 30th against the pass), and Laurent Robinson’s season-ending injury making Avery the #1 guy for St. Louis again, well… all the pieces seem to be there. But. This is the Rams.
Zach Miller
Three of the best tight ends in fantasy football are on bye weeks, so owners are looking for a one-week replacement. Jermichael Finley of the Packers seems to be the guy everybody’s going after. Wait just a second. You may remember that I have loved Finley since the preseason and think he’ll be a stud someday in the future … but Zach Miller of the Raiders is already a stud. Just because Finley plays against the Lions doesn’t mean he’s a sure thing. Why? Because Donald Lee is still the top tight end for Green Bay. I don’t know why. He shouldn’t be. But he is. Miller is the ONLY pass-catching option in Oakland, and against the aggressive Eagles defense JaMarcus Russell won’t have time to look past his first option. Miller’s numbers have been gaudy this year against good defenses. This week that will continue. Meanwhile, I don’t think Finley will have any more than 3 or 4 catches.
Jacksonville DST
You can’t go wrong with any defense against the Rams.
DUDS
LaDanian Tomlinson
I think LT is a DUD for the rest of the season, but especially this week. Not only is he facing the tremendously improved Broncos defense, but the Chargers can’t just keep Darren Sproles off the field. It’s more likely that LT will leave this game with an injury than he will score a touchdown.
Steve Slaton
Yet another lousy week for the first round (fantasy) pick. Houston’s offensive line is messed up, and Chris Brown is apparently the Texans new goal-line back. Plus the Bengals defense is actually decent.
Rush Limbaugh
His bid to buy the Rams was denied and he blamed it on “Obama’s America.” Really Rush? If you had tried to buy the Rams a season ago when GWB was President it would have been different? No, this had nothing to do with Obama. It’s called “Roger Goodell keeping a racist maniac from owning a team full of black guys.”
Eli Manning
There’s probably a better option on your roster or in free agency than Eli. Not only is he battling an injury, but he’s playing the Saints at the Superdome, one of the loudest stadiums and most difficult places for QBs to play. Nothing against the Giants, I just don’t think this is Eli’s week statistically.
Santana Moss, Chris Cooley
The Redskins are coming off a stretch of playing the Rams, Lions and winless Bucs. Now they face the 0-5 Chiefs. You’d think they could take advantage of those crummy teams and rack up some impressive stats, but they haven’t do so. Why not? Two words: Jason Campbell. The dude is terrible. Cooley and Moss are talented, but just can’t be of much value until they have a better quarterback throwing them the ball.
Cadillac Williams, Jamal Lewis, Kevin Smith
Typically, teams that are being blown out are less able to run the ball. None of these three RBs are particularly scary in the first place, but this week should be worse than normal for them.
Chris Johnson
I think the Titans will have to pass to keep pace with the Pats and besides that, Chris Johnson hasn’t been himself since his monstrous week 2 outing. Bench him if you have any legitimate alternatives.
The Balloon Boy
You know, that stupid kid in Colorado who was hiding in the attic while all of America panicked and thought he was 10,000 feet in the air in a stray hot air balloon. What a bunch of knuckleheads.
Ahmad Bradshaw
He’s still #2 on the depth chart and this one won’t be a blowout like the Chiefs and Raiders games.
Steve Smith, NY Giants
I just don’t think he can keep it up forever. Especially against Darren Sharper.
Terrell Owens
TO has basically been a complete non-factor this season. Against Darelle Revis I don’t seem him having a breakout game.
Michael Jackson
The guy's been dead for like three months and they still won't stop talking about him. It's not like he was some kind of philanthropic hero; he was a deranged lunatic who happened to be a great singer and dancer.
Well, that's all I got. Week six should be a really entertaining week. Excited to see if the Lions can snap their 18 game losing streak at Lambeau Field. Not optimistic, but excited.
GO LIONS.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
More Picks ...
Week Six Picks
Lot of good games on the slate this week. It's not going to be easy - the past two weeks were full of predicatable blowouts; I'll be happy with 9-5 this week. Onto the games ...
(Bye weeks: Indianapolis, Dallas, Miami, San Francisco.)
Tennessee @ New England
Ah, the winless Titans against the underachieving Patriots. Here's an interesting fact: this is the first game the Patriots will play against a team that isn’t undefeated. (They faced the 0-0 Bills, 1-0 Falcons, 2-0 Jets, 3-0 Ravens, and 4-0 Broncos). Now they face the winless Titans who just so happen to have the worst pass defense in the league (granted, they’ve played against some solid QBs.) If Brady is every going to have a Brady-like game, this will be it. Welker is 100%, and the Titans two best cornerbacks are out with injuries, which leaves a rookie cornerback to guard Randy Moss on the outside. It should be an utter feast for Tom Brady. Emphasis on should be. Brady just hasn't been very good this year, plain and simple, and on top of that the offensive line just isn't dominant like it used to be. I think this one will be closer that people expect, and although it baffles me to see the Titans going 0-6, I can’t see New England at 3-3 either. Pats win, 27-23.
Buffalo @ NY Jets
If Buffalo can’t win a home game against the Browns, they certainly can’t beat the Jets on the road. Besides, New York is in need of a good pounding to keep them in good spirits, and the Bills couldn’t come at a better time. Whatever the spread is in this one, I’ll take the Jets and the over. Mark Sanchez has a career day, and the Jets roll 35-13.
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Of course I’m picking the Steelers. These kinds of games make me feel like I need to pick against the spread to be legit. (Note: the spread in this game is 14 and I would still take them Stellers to cover.) Pittsburgh dominates against crappy teams at Heinz Field, and will win this one convincingly, despite Polamalu missing another week. 31-9.
Baltimore @ Minnesota
Game of the week? Not quite, but one of the four major candidates. Ravens are coming off back-to-back close losses and Vikings are coming off destroying the Rams. It appears the Ravens have momentum, or at least rage on their side. Running on the Ravens is near impossible, but for some reason that doesn’t convince me that AP won’t be up to the task. What teams have been doing all season against the Vikings is trying to shut down Peterson and force Favre to beat them. Yeah, that’s a great strategy. It’s not like Brett Favre ever won any games in his career. Hmm … And you know what, I’ve made fun of Favre’s age just like everybody else, but just because he’s 39 doesn’t mean he can’t still throw the ball. He can. And he still knows all the little quirks of the game better than anybody. Minnesota’s offense is good. Or rather, they’re no longer one-dimensional. Maybe Brad Childress isn’t such a moron after all.
But you know who else has a pretty good offense? Yeah, Baltimore. Ray Rice is an absolute stud guys. Did you see that catch-and-run-and-break-three-tackles-and-make-guys-look-stupid-like-Barry-Sanders-used-to play? That was unreal. I owe apologies to Joe Flacco as well. That guy is too legit to quit. This looks on the surface likes a defensive-dominated game, but I won’t be surprised if it’s quite high-scoring. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL. I’m going to take the Ravens on the road in this one, because I don’t like the idea of the Vikings being 6-0, and the Ravens have Ray Lewis. Baltimore 35-24.
St. Louis @ Jacksonville
After getting blown out 41-0 nothing last week, Jacksonville is favored to win this game by ten! What in the heck .. are the Rams really that bad? Can they really not put it together and compete at least once this season? I mean, a lot of teams are 0-5, but they’ve all been competitive in at least one game. The Rams have not. They are so unworthy to be in the NFL. That said, I still think ten points is too high. Jags by a touchdown, 27-20.
Texans @ Cincinnati
Two teams of about equal talent which have completely different records. The Bengals have played five games this season and all five of them, if I’m not mistaken, have come down to the finals two minutes. The Texans are more of a ‘Blow Out and Be Blown Out’ kind of team. This one should be close though. Will the real Texans offense please stand up? I’m going with Houston in a bit of an upset, 24-14.
Denver @ San Diego
Game of the week part II. The undefeated Broncos in a week six game that will basically determine whether or not the AFC West is still up for grabs. If Denver wins, pencil them into the playoffs and San Diego is dead. If San Diego wins, the whole division resets. I’ve picked against the Broncos in four of their fives wins this year and I’m going to keep doing it til I get it right. I just don't like that McDaniels guy. San Diego 20-14.
Philadelphia @ Oakland
Oakland is so implausibly pathetic that I don’t even want to waste my breath on them. Eagles by 30.
Kansas City @ Washington
Intriguing game here between a frisky 0-5 team and one of the worst 2-3 teams in NFL history. Washington is now ending a stretch in which they played the Rams, Lions, Buccaneers, and now the Chiefs; in other words, four worthless teams. The Chiefs don’t seem quite bad enough to be winless. If the Skins lose this one, Zorn is finished. The question is, how much different are the Chiefs than the Lions, Rams, and Bucs? I’d say they’re worse than the Lions, better than the Rams, and a little better than the Bucs. The Redskins were bareeely able to squeak past Tampa last week. Against the spread I’d take the Chiefs. Straight up, I’ll go with the Skins, 14-13.
NY Giants @ New Orleans
Here's the game of the week! I think this is actually the most exciting matchup I could dream up for week six. Here’s why: the Giants are the best team in the NFL right now, and the Saints are, according to my figures, the third best team. But nobody wants to see the two best teams play each other, because all the Manning-Mania might cause football fans everywhere to vomit uncontrollably. (Unless of course it’s the Super Bowl, which would be pretty cool.) But this game features the best non-Peyton Manning player in the NFL (Drew Brees) against an elite Giants pass rush. To make it more interesting, the Saints defense has suddenly developed into a solid and even scary unit. At New York, everybody including me, would pick the Giants. But at the Superdome - one of the loudest and most difficult places to play … and factor in Eli’s plantar fasciitis … plus the fact that the Saints have had two weeks to prepay for this game ... and you’ve got yourself one heck of a Game of the Week. As for my prediction, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’m not betting against Drew Brees until he loses a game. He’s a man on a mission. Saints win 27-23.
Detroit @ Green Bay
Lions haven’t won at Lameau since, what, 1991? Geez oh man. Rodgers, like Brees, has had two weeks to prepare for this one. Not that he needed it. Packers torch the hapless, Stafford-less, Calvin-less Lions 42-13.
Chicago @ Atlanta
This is the fourth of the four games of the week, although this is the least exciting one in my opinion. The Bears and Falcons are both 3-1 and the winner of this game will be sitting pretty in the standings. The difference in this game is the same as the difference between Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan: one is the real deal, the other is a poser. I don’t need to tell you which is which. Falcons win 31-21.
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
As bad as Jake Delhomme is, I think the Panthers should be able to outmuscle and outplay the Bucs on both sides of the ball and win their second straight. John Fox has got to just keep it simple and stick with the running game and Carolina might be okay. Tampa is just godawful. Panthers 21-12.
Arizona @ Seattle.
These NFC West games are really pointless to anyone outside the NFC West. I thought things might be different this year but I was wrong; once again that whole division is just so inconsistent and stupid and unpredictable. But if Seattle can win this one it would be a statement game. Matt Hasslebeck is back and playing better than he ever has before, maybe ever; and Seattle is back as one of the hardest cities to play in. Just ask Jacksonville, who was steamrolled last week. I like the Seahawks again in this one, but Arizona keeps it close. SEA 23-16.
And there you have it. Stay tuned for the results and also an NBA/Pistons Preview I'm working on.
(PS - Sorry for the lack of quality written posts lately, I'm becomming busier and busier at work, and it's harder to get anything done.)
Lot of good games on the slate this week. It's not going to be easy - the past two weeks were full of predicatable blowouts; I'll be happy with 9-5 this week. Onto the games ...
(Bye weeks: Indianapolis, Dallas, Miami, San Francisco.)
Tennessee @ New England
Ah, the winless Titans against the underachieving Patriots. Here's an interesting fact: this is the first game the Patriots will play against a team that isn’t undefeated. (They faced the 0-0 Bills, 1-0 Falcons, 2-0 Jets, 3-0 Ravens, and 4-0 Broncos). Now they face the winless Titans who just so happen to have the worst pass defense in the league (granted, they’ve played against some solid QBs.) If Brady is every going to have a Brady-like game, this will be it. Welker is 100%, and the Titans two best cornerbacks are out with injuries, which leaves a rookie cornerback to guard Randy Moss on the outside. It should be an utter feast for Tom Brady. Emphasis on should be. Brady just hasn't been very good this year, plain and simple, and on top of that the offensive line just isn't dominant like it used to be. I think this one will be closer that people expect, and although it baffles me to see the Titans going 0-6, I can’t see New England at 3-3 either. Pats win, 27-23.
Buffalo @ NY Jets
If Buffalo can’t win a home game against the Browns, they certainly can’t beat the Jets on the road. Besides, New York is in need of a good pounding to keep them in good spirits, and the Bills couldn’t come at a better time. Whatever the spread is in this one, I’ll take the Jets and the over. Mark Sanchez has a career day, and the Jets roll 35-13.
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Of course I’m picking the Steelers. These kinds of games make me feel like I need to pick against the spread to be legit. (Note: the spread in this game is 14 and I would still take them Stellers to cover.) Pittsburgh dominates against crappy teams at Heinz Field, and will win this one convincingly, despite Polamalu missing another week. 31-9.
Baltimore @ Minnesota
Game of the week? Not quite, but one of the four major candidates. Ravens are coming off back-to-back close losses and Vikings are coming off destroying the Rams. It appears the Ravens have momentum, or at least rage on their side. Running on the Ravens is near impossible, but for some reason that doesn’t convince me that AP won’t be up to the task. What teams have been doing all season against the Vikings is trying to shut down Peterson and force Favre to beat them. Yeah, that’s a great strategy. It’s not like Brett Favre ever won any games in his career. Hmm … And you know what, I’ve made fun of Favre’s age just like everybody else, but just because he’s 39 doesn’t mean he can’t still throw the ball. He can. And he still knows all the little quirks of the game better than anybody. Minnesota’s offense is good. Or rather, they’re no longer one-dimensional. Maybe Brad Childress isn’t such a moron after all.
But you know who else has a pretty good offense? Yeah, Baltimore. Ray Rice is an absolute stud guys. Did you see that catch-and-run-and-break-three-tackles-and-make-guys-look-stupid-like-Barry-Sanders-used-to play? That was unreal. I owe apologies to Joe Flacco as well. That guy is too legit to quit. This looks on the surface likes a defensive-dominated game, but I won’t be surprised if it’s quite high-scoring. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL. I’m going to take the Ravens on the road in this one, because I don’t like the idea of the Vikings being 6-0, and the Ravens have Ray Lewis. Baltimore 35-24.
St. Louis @ Jacksonville
After getting blown out 41-0 nothing last week, Jacksonville is favored to win this game by ten! What in the heck .. are the Rams really that bad? Can they really not put it together and compete at least once this season? I mean, a lot of teams are 0-5, but they’ve all been competitive in at least one game. The Rams have not. They are so unworthy to be in the NFL. That said, I still think ten points is too high. Jags by a touchdown, 27-20.
Texans @ Cincinnati
Two teams of about equal talent which have completely different records. The Bengals have played five games this season and all five of them, if I’m not mistaken, have come down to the finals two minutes. The Texans are more of a ‘Blow Out and Be Blown Out’ kind of team. This one should be close though. Will the real Texans offense please stand up? I’m going with Houston in a bit of an upset, 24-14.
Denver @ San Diego
Game of the week part II. The undefeated Broncos in a week six game that will basically determine whether or not the AFC West is still up for grabs. If Denver wins, pencil them into the playoffs and San Diego is dead. If San Diego wins, the whole division resets. I’ve picked against the Broncos in four of their fives wins this year and I’m going to keep doing it til I get it right. I just don't like that McDaniels guy. San Diego 20-14.
Philadelphia @ Oakland
Oakland is so implausibly pathetic that I don’t even want to waste my breath on them. Eagles by 30.
Kansas City @ Washington
Intriguing game here between a frisky 0-5 team and one of the worst 2-3 teams in NFL history. Washington is now ending a stretch in which they played the Rams, Lions, Buccaneers, and now the Chiefs; in other words, four worthless teams. The Chiefs don’t seem quite bad enough to be winless. If the Skins lose this one, Zorn is finished. The question is, how much different are the Chiefs than the Lions, Rams, and Bucs? I’d say they’re worse than the Lions, better than the Rams, and a little better than the Bucs. The Redskins were bareeely able to squeak past Tampa last week. Against the spread I’d take the Chiefs. Straight up, I’ll go with the Skins, 14-13.
NY Giants @ New Orleans
Here's the game of the week! I think this is actually the most exciting matchup I could dream up for week six. Here’s why: the Giants are the best team in the NFL right now, and the Saints are, according to my figures, the third best team. But nobody wants to see the two best teams play each other, because all the Manning-Mania might cause football fans everywhere to vomit uncontrollably. (Unless of course it’s the Super Bowl, which would be pretty cool.) But this game features the best non-Peyton Manning player in the NFL (Drew Brees) against an elite Giants pass rush. To make it more interesting, the Saints defense has suddenly developed into a solid and even scary unit. At New York, everybody including me, would pick the Giants. But at the Superdome - one of the loudest and most difficult places to play … and factor in Eli’s plantar fasciitis … plus the fact that the Saints have had two weeks to prepay for this game ... and you’ve got yourself one heck of a Game of the Week. As for my prediction, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’m not betting against Drew Brees until he loses a game. He’s a man on a mission. Saints win 27-23.
Detroit @ Green Bay
Lions haven’t won at Lameau since, what, 1991? Geez oh man. Rodgers, like Brees, has had two weeks to prepare for this one. Not that he needed it. Packers torch the hapless, Stafford-less, Calvin-less Lions 42-13.
Chicago @ Atlanta
This is the fourth of the four games of the week, although this is the least exciting one in my opinion. The Bears and Falcons are both 3-1 and the winner of this game will be sitting pretty in the standings. The difference in this game is the same as the difference between Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan: one is the real deal, the other is a poser. I don’t need to tell you which is which. Falcons win 31-21.
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
As bad as Jake Delhomme is, I think the Panthers should be able to outmuscle and outplay the Bucs on both sides of the ball and win their second straight. John Fox has got to just keep it simple and stick with the running game and Carolina might be okay. Tampa is just godawful. Panthers 21-12.
Arizona @ Seattle.
These NFC West games are really pointless to anyone outside the NFC West. I thought things might be different this year but I was wrong; once again that whole division is just so inconsistent and stupid and unpredictable. But if Seattle can win this one it would be a statement game. Matt Hasslebeck is back and playing better than he ever has before, maybe ever; and Seattle is back as one of the hardest cities to play in. Just ask Jacksonville, who was steamrolled last week. I like the Seahawks again in this one, but Arizona keeps it close. SEA 23-16.
And there you have it. Stay tuned for the results and also an NBA/Pistons Preview I'm working on.
(PS - Sorry for the lack of quality written posts lately, I'm becomming busier and busier at work, and it's harder to get anything done.)
Monday, October 12, 2009
Another solid week
Week Five did not go so well for the Lions, but I had another good outing picking the games. The Monday Night game is underway, and pending the results I'm either 9-5 or 10-4. Here are the results:
Vikings vs. Rams
Prediction: Vikings by 22
Actual: Vikings by 26
Analysis: The Rams are horrible, but with the rumors that they could soon be purchased by Mr. Rush Limbaugh, things could get even worse. When you've won just five games in the past three seasons, the last thing you need is a divisive owner stirring up negative media. Best option for the Rams is to move to a different city if you ask me, and we might not be far from that happening. The state of Missouri is 0-10 in the NFL and just got swept out of the baseball playoffs. Ouch. Oh, and good job to the Vikings. Old Brett Favre is now 5-0. Winning cures all.
Eagles vs. Bucs
Prediction: Eagles by 16
Actual: Eagles by 19
Analysis: McNabb returned from his injury and looked fine. Better than fine, actually. He played great and the Eagles (my pre-season Super Bowl pick) continue to impress me. Beating Tampa isn't a big deal, but smoking them 33-14 is impressive.
Carolina vs. Washington
Prediction: Panthers by 28
Actual: Panthers by 3
Anaylsis: I figured the Panthers would pick up their first win, at home, against the crappy Redskins. But I didn't think it'd be this close. Jake Delhomme is just terrible, but on top of that the running game, which was unstoppable a season ago, is falling apart. Neither of these teams have a whiff of a chance of making the playoffs. And the Jim Zorn Job Watch is definitely underway.
Lions vs. Steelers
Prediction: Steelers by 21
Actual: Steelers by just 8
Analysis: Whatever.
Giants vs. Raiders
Prediction: Giants by 20
Actual: Giants by 37
Wait a second ... the Giants won by 37?? Holy crap.
Dallas vs. Kansas City
Prediction: Cowboys by 7
Actual: Cowboys by 6
Analysis: KC is frisky for an 0-5 team, and Dallas is quite overrated. Miles Austin gained about 200 of his record-breaking 250 yards after the catch. The dude can flat out play and if he doesn't supplant Pat Crayton as the #2 receiver immediately, then I should be the Cowboys coach.
Falcons @ 49ers
Prediction: Falcons by 10
Actual: Falcons by 25
Analysis: I was nervous to pick Atlanta on the road, but apparently I should not have been. Is San Fran a tad overrated or is Atlanta just an outstanding football team? I think the latter. New Orleans didn't win this division just yet.
Arizona vs. Houston
Prediction: Cards by 7
Actual: Cards by 7
Ding ding ding.
Colts vs. Titans
Prediction: Colts by 9
Actual: Colts by 22
Analysis: Peyton Manning is playing as close to perfect as any player in the NFL. The Titans had no chance in this one. I feel bad for them being 0-5, but this game was just unwinnable for them. I hope they rebound and win one soon though; it's sad for them.
Ravens vs. Bengals
Prediction: Ravens by 14
Actual: Bengals by 3
I picked Baltimore just like everybody else and was wrong just like everybody else. Hasn't every Bengals game this year gone down to the final two minutes? Crazy. They are 4-0 since losing that week one game on the Brandon Stokley play.
Bills vs. Browns
P: Bills by 8
A: Browns by 3
Cleveland completed only two passes in this game... and won. I can't think about it ... moving on ...
Jacksonville vs. Seattle
Prediction: Jags by 3
Actual: Seattle blows them out by 41!
Analysis: I originially picked Jacksonville because I thought Hasslebeck was out and Seneca Wallace is a bit reckless and turnover prone. When I found out Hass was playing, I went on the blog to change my pick. Seemed like a no-brainer. But then I got cute and decided to stick with the Jags, and they made me pay. 41-0? Come on Jacksonville, that's embarassing.
Patriots vs. Broncos
Predicted: Pats by 14
Actual: Broncos by 3 in OT
Analysis: The game of the week lived up to expectations for sure. New England had it won in the first half and then Tom Brady just stopped playing like Tom Brady. He might just be the least consistent player in the NFL this year. New England is lucky to be 3-2. And Denver is monumentally, historically, biblically, extraterrestrially lucky to be 5-0.
So that's 9 games correct and 4 games incorrect, with the Jets up 13-10 at half. (I picked the Jets). Thus far on the season I am ... 41-17.
Plus this week: 10-4 or 9-5
For a grand total of: 51-21
or 50-22
Vikings vs. Rams
Prediction: Vikings by 22
Actual: Vikings by 26
Analysis: The Rams are horrible, but with the rumors that they could soon be purchased by Mr. Rush Limbaugh, things could get even worse. When you've won just five games in the past three seasons, the last thing you need is a divisive owner stirring up negative media. Best option for the Rams is to move to a different city if you ask me, and we might not be far from that happening. The state of Missouri is 0-10 in the NFL and just got swept out of the baseball playoffs. Ouch. Oh, and good job to the Vikings. Old Brett Favre is now 5-0. Winning cures all.
Eagles vs. Bucs
Prediction: Eagles by 16
Actual: Eagles by 19
Analysis: McNabb returned from his injury and looked fine. Better than fine, actually. He played great and the Eagles (my pre-season Super Bowl pick) continue to impress me. Beating Tampa isn't a big deal, but smoking them 33-14 is impressive.
Carolina vs. Washington
Prediction: Panthers by 28
Actual: Panthers by 3
Anaylsis: I figured the Panthers would pick up their first win, at home, against the crappy Redskins. But I didn't think it'd be this close. Jake Delhomme is just terrible, but on top of that the running game, which was unstoppable a season ago, is falling apart. Neither of these teams have a whiff of a chance of making the playoffs. And the Jim Zorn Job Watch is definitely underway.
Lions vs. Steelers
Prediction: Steelers by 21
Actual: Steelers by just 8
Analysis: Whatever.
Giants vs. Raiders
Prediction: Giants by 20
Actual: Giants by 37
Wait a second ... the Giants won by 37?? Holy crap.
Dallas vs. Kansas City
Prediction: Cowboys by 7
Actual: Cowboys by 6
Analysis: KC is frisky for an 0-5 team, and Dallas is quite overrated. Miles Austin gained about 200 of his record-breaking 250 yards after the catch. The dude can flat out play and if he doesn't supplant Pat Crayton as the #2 receiver immediately, then I should be the Cowboys coach.
Falcons @ 49ers
Prediction: Falcons by 10
Actual: Falcons by 25
Analysis: I was nervous to pick Atlanta on the road, but apparently I should not have been. Is San Fran a tad overrated or is Atlanta just an outstanding football team? I think the latter. New Orleans didn't win this division just yet.
Arizona vs. Houston
Prediction: Cards by 7
Actual: Cards by 7
Ding ding ding.
Colts vs. Titans
Prediction: Colts by 9
Actual: Colts by 22
Analysis: Peyton Manning is playing as close to perfect as any player in the NFL. The Titans had no chance in this one. I feel bad for them being 0-5, but this game was just unwinnable for them. I hope they rebound and win one soon though; it's sad for them.
Ravens vs. Bengals
Prediction: Ravens by 14
Actual: Bengals by 3
I picked Baltimore just like everybody else and was wrong just like everybody else. Hasn't every Bengals game this year gone down to the final two minutes? Crazy. They are 4-0 since losing that week one game on the Brandon Stokley play.
Bills vs. Browns
P: Bills by 8
A: Browns by 3
Cleveland completed only two passes in this game... and won. I can't think about it ... moving on ...
Jacksonville vs. Seattle
Prediction: Jags by 3
Actual: Seattle blows them out by 41!
Analysis: I originially picked Jacksonville because I thought Hasslebeck was out and Seneca Wallace is a bit reckless and turnover prone. When I found out Hass was playing, I went on the blog to change my pick. Seemed like a no-brainer. But then I got cute and decided to stick with the Jags, and they made me pay. 41-0? Come on Jacksonville, that's embarassing.
Patriots vs. Broncos
Predicted: Pats by 14
Actual: Broncos by 3 in OT
Analysis: The game of the week lived up to expectations for sure. New England had it won in the first half and then Tom Brady just stopped playing like Tom Brady. He might just be the least consistent player in the NFL this year. New England is lucky to be 3-2. And Denver is monumentally, historically, biblically, extraterrestrially lucky to be 5-0.
So that's 9 games correct and 4 games incorrect, with the Jets up 13-10 at half. (I picked the Jets). Thus far on the season I am ... 41-17.
Plus this week: 10-4 or 9-5
For a grand total of: 51-21
or 50-22
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Four Weeks Down, Twelve Weeks To Go
Four weeks through the NFL season we are, and as always, surprises and disappointments abound. Fives teams are 4-0 through four weeks, and two of those teams’ quarterbacks are Mannings. Excuse me while I throw up. The other three are Drew Brees (playing like an absolute Hall of Famer), Brett Favre (adding to his Hall of Fame career) and … Kyle Orton? Well, maybe the credit for Denver’s 4-0 start should actually go to their defense. Err … well, actually give the credit to whoever wrote up the Broncos schedule. That guy was a genius!
After slow starts, the highly-hyped Patriots and Steelers have rebounded enough to avoid major deficits, while the quick-starting Jets and Ravens both lost to fall to 3-1. The biggest story through four weeks may be the combined record of 0-7 from the Titans and Panthers, who combined to go 25-7 last year. Not everyone expected these teams to repeat last year’s success, and I was in fact one of the biggest critics of both teams. But not even I expect them to both be winless though four weeks. Just goes to show the importance of the quarterback position, and the flakiness of the NFL.
Parity has already been created early in the season, at least in terms of the NFL Standings. In the NFC, the Giants, Saints, Vikings and 49ers have already established themselves as frontrunners to win their divisions; Indianapolis and Denver have done the same in the AFC with commanding two-game leads. The two most interesting division thus far are tied at 3-1 at the top: the AFC East, where the Jets and Pats are both 3-1, and the AFC South, where surprisingly, the Bengals and Ravens sit a game above the Steelers. Nothing is certain after four weeks, and hardly anyone outside of Colorado expects the Chargers to stay behind the Broncos for very long, but when the two teams play head-to-head, a Denver victory could spell disaster for San Diego.
Before I move on to my First Quarter NFL Power Poll, I’d like to run through a few quick First Quarter of the NFL Season Questions and Thoughts:
Best Team in the NFC: New York Giants.
Best Team in the AFC: The Colts.
Best Team Not Led by a Manning: The Saints.
MVP: Peyton Manning, narrowly over Drew Brees. Peterson, Flacco, and Eli Manning round out the top five.
Defensive MVP: I should probably say Elvis Dumaveril, the dude on the Broncos who already has eight sacks, but I’m actually going to say Darren Sharper of the Saints. As good as Drew Brees has played, the Saints defense has been the key in the past two wins, especially against the Jets on Sunday. Sharper’s 99-yard pick-six was the single biggest play of the season. Period. Filling out the top five are Jared Allen, Patrick Willis, and Darelle Revis.
Most Disappointing Team: Has to be Tennessee. They’ve already lost more games than they lost in all of 2008, as I’m sure you’ve heard.
Most Surprising Team: Denver. Wins are wins, no matter who you play, and they are 4-0. Good for them.
Most Disappointing Player: From both a fantasy and a real-life standpoint, it’s LaDanian Tomlinson. He might not even be the second best running back on San Diego. Albert Haynesworth is the most disappointing defensive player by a long shot. Here’s an interesting question: at $32 million dollars this year and over $100 million for the next five years, how much will Big Al be paid per tackle for the next five years in the NFL? It seems to me that somewhere between $300,000 and $600,000 is a safe guess, pending his health. And if he continues to overplay this current “injury”, maybe we should start referring to him as The One Million Dollars Per Tackle Man. If I was allowed to commentate NFL games, I would say the things that I wish real commentators would say. Such as, “…And Haynesworth brings him down in the backfield for a five-yard loss. That play had to be worth AT LEAST Two and a Half Million Dollars to the Redskins!”
Most Surprising Player: Tie between Giants receivers Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, who have combined for 85 catches and 900 yards and 20 touchdowns through four games. Or something like that. Looks like Plaxico shooting himself in the leg wasn’t such a big deal for New York after all.
Most Overrated Media Story: You could pick anyone between Owens, Ochocinco, or Vick … but I think the least deserving, most annoying, please-go-away media story that has garnered waaay too much attention has been … that one quarterback for the Vikings. You know, Sage Rosenfels. What a drama queen.
On that note, this is what I like to call my First Quarter of the NFL Season Power Poll:
(similar to Power Rankings except more fun)
After slow starts, the highly-hyped Patriots and Steelers have rebounded enough to avoid major deficits, while the quick-starting Jets and Ravens both lost to fall to 3-1. The biggest story through four weeks may be the combined record of 0-7 from the Titans and Panthers, who combined to go 25-7 last year. Not everyone expected these teams to repeat last year’s success, and I was in fact one of the biggest critics of both teams. But not even I expect them to both be winless though four weeks. Just goes to show the importance of the quarterback position, and the flakiness of the NFL.
Parity has already been created early in the season, at least in terms of the NFL Standings. In the NFC, the Giants, Saints, Vikings and 49ers have already established themselves as frontrunners to win their divisions; Indianapolis and Denver have done the same in the AFC with commanding two-game leads. The two most interesting division thus far are tied at 3-1 at the top: the AFC East, where the Jets and Pats are both 3-1, and the AFC South, where surprisingly, the Bengals and Ravens sit a game above the Steelers. Nothing is certain after four weeks, and hardly anyone outside of Colorado expects the Chargers to stay behind the Broncos for very long, but when the two teams play head-to-head, a Denver victory could spell disaster for San Diego.
Before I move on to my First Quarter NFL Power Poll, I’d like to run through a few quick First Quarter of the NFL Season Questions and Thoughts:
Best Team in the NFC: New York Giants.
Best Team in the AFC: The Colts.
Best Team Not Led by a Manning: The Saints.
MVP: Peyton Manning, narrowly over Drew Brees. Peterson, Flacco, and Eli Manning round out the top five.
Defensive MVP: I should probably say Elvis Dumaveril, the dude on the Broncos who already has eight sacks, but I’m actually going to say Darren Sharper of the Saints. As good as Drew Brees has played, the Saints defense has been the key in the past two wins, especially against the Jets on Sunday. Sharper’s 99-yard pick-six was the single biggest play of the season. Period. Filling out the top five are Jared Allen, Patrick Willis, and Darelle Revis.
Most Disappointing Team: Has to be Tennessee. They’ve already lost more games than they lost in all of 2008, as I’m sure you’ve heard.
Most Surprising Team: Denver. Wins are wins, no matter who you play, and they are 4-0. Good for them.
Most Disappointing Player: From both a fantasy and a real-life standpoint, it’s LaDanian Tomlinson. He might not even be the second best running back on San Diego. Albert Haynesworth is the most disappointing defensive player by a long shot. Here’s an interesting question: at $32 million dollars this year and over $100 million for the next five years, how much will Big Al be paid per tackle for the next five years in the NFL? It seems to me that somewhere between $300,000 and $600,000 is a safe guess, pending his health. And if he continues to overplay this current “injury”, maybe we should start referring to him as The One Million Dollars Per Tackle Man. If I was allowed to commentate NFL games, I would say the things that I wish real commentators would say. Such as, “…And Haynesworth brings him down in the backfield for a five-yard loss. That play had to be worth AT LEAST Two and a Half Million Dollars to the Redskins!”
Most Surprising Player: Tie between Giants receivers Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, who have combined for 85 catches and 900 yards and 20 touchdowns through four games. Or something like that. Looks like Plaxico shooting himself in the leg wasn’t such a big deal for New York after all.
Most Overrated Media Story: You could pick anyone between Owens, Ochocinco, or Vick … but I think the least deserving, most annoying, please-go-away media story that has garnered waaay too much attention has been … that one quarterback for the Vikings. You know, Sage Rosenfels. What a drama queen.
On that note, this is what I like to call my First Quarter of the NFL Season Power Poll:
(similar to Power Rankings except more fun)
32. St. Louis Rams.
They have officially reached the ever-important role in fantasy football of “Team to Pick On.” Last year it was the Lions and this year it’s the Rams … San Fran scored three touchdowns ON DEFENSE Sunday. That’s just silly. The only thing left to say is … With the first pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select …
31. Cleveland Browns.
For a crappy, crappy team, the Browns have glimmers of hope here and there. Massaquoi played a really good game Sunday as did Jerome Harrison; with Joe Thomas holding down the left tackle spot the Browns have some pieces to build with. But their quarterback situation has been handled by coach Mangini about as delicately and intelligently as how Kennedy handled the Bay of Pigs. For a guy who used to be nicknamed “Man-Genius,” it’s funny that Eric Mangini is hands-down the worst coach in the NFL. (Editor’s note: Browns have traded Braylon Edwards to Jets as of this morning – not sure yet what they receive in return. I don’t think this can hurt the Browns. When you’re as bad as they are, sometimes the best thing to do is dump big salaries and start all over. This gives Robiskie and Massaquoi a chance to develop as legitimate starters. I think it’s a good move for both teams.)
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
How stupid do you think they feel for firing Jon Gruden?
29. Oakland Raiders.
They are the worst team to have won a game this year, which is sort of a backhanded compliment. There are a lot of bad QBs in the league this year, and I mean A LOT of them, but no one is worse than JaMarcus Russell. He truly is the worst. If his legacy is anything, it’s the extremely costly lesson (literally, as in $70 million in cost) that the NFL and the NCAA are truly different sports. Arm strength is king in college, but without pocket presence and a brain, you can’t be an NFL winner. To make matters worse for the Raiders, their one All-Pro player has been playing injured and playing sub-par all season, making their defense even less effective than usual.
28. Kansas City Chiefs.
The team that Oakland defeated is ranked ahead of them, but not by much. Getting murdered in consecutive weeks by NFC East beasts was probably not very enjoyable for any of the Chiefs, but they may have some friskiness in them when they play lesser opponents. However, Crazy Keith summed up the 2009 Chiefs expertly on Sunday with these six succinct words: “ I told you Matt Cassel sucks.”
27. Buffalo Bills.
Their defense can’t stop anybody, not even Chad Henne. And their offense is just not clicking at all. TO not catching the ball means things are going to get even worse, plus they have to spread the ball around to both Jackson and Lynch even though Jackson is clearly a better player. What a mess.
26. Detroit Lions.
Hey, this might not be a great ranking, but it’s progress. Stafford needs to learn how to play both halves of the game. Last year’s mega-weaknesses, the defense and the offensive line, have actually been vastly improved. The pieces are there for 8-8 next year. We just need to draft wisely.
25. Carolina Panthers.
Surprised? You shouldn’t be. This isn’t last year’s team. Jake Delhomme is without question one of the five worst starting QBs in the league, and the defense is doing next to nothing week after week. How they bounce back after the bye week will tell us a lot about their team and John Fox’s future as their coach.
24. Washington Redskins.
After losing to the Lions, the Skins barely beat Tampa Bay at home. They don’t have injuries to blame this on. It’s just flat-out bad playing. They have a talented enough roster on both sides of the ball and their just not getting it done. And that is all why Jim Zorn is sitting on the hottest hot seat of all NFL coaches right now.
23. Tennessee Titans.
I’m sorry, but when you’re 0-4 you can’t be ranked any higher than this, no matter how well you did last year. With an imminent loss to the Colts ready to make them 0-5, the question is: how bad will they finish? Can they bring the season back to 8-8? Or will they fall from 13-3 to 3-13, as I prophesied that they would several months ago? Is there any way Vince Young makes it back onto the field? The truth is, they haven’t played all that badly this year, but you have to play better than not-that-bad to win in the NFL, especially in the tough AFC South.
22. Miami Dolphins.
Pennington’s injury plus having the hardest schedule in the NFL are two bad ingredients towards a 5-11 season. Chad Henne was going to be the starter in 2010, though, so giving him a year to learn the ropes isn’t the worst thing in the world. Miami still has Jake Long to build around for the future.
21. Chicago Bears.
After getting romped in week one by Green Bay, the Bears have reeled off three straight and stayed alive for the playoff hunt. However, that doesn’t mean they’ve played exceptionally well. That defense is stopping nobody and they would be 2-2 if Jeff Reed made an easy field goal, and possibly 1-3 if Hasslebeck didn’t get hurt. Give credit to Cutler though for not throwing any interceptions since his four-INT opener.
20. San Diego Chargers.
This might seem a little harsh, but you can’t tell me they’ve played well enough to beat any of the teams ranked ahead of them so far this year. The Phillip Rivers to Vincent Jackson deep ball is the one thing about San Diego that I like (well, and Antonio Gates, obviously). The defense is horrible. Absolutely horrible. And LaDanian Tomlinson isn’t even a top 100 running back in the NFL. Or in the NCAA. If he were a high school running back, he wouldn’t even be all-conference.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars.
If this Power Poll had been written after week two, the Jags would have found themselves somewhere in the 26-30 range. By whipping the Titans in week four, they move up significantly. David Garrard found his rhythm and found his new favorite target, and the defense played with more aggression and focus. A lot of people wrote the Jags off after an 0-2 start, and that may be the best thing they have going for them.
18. Seattle Seahawks.
This Power Poll factors in injuries, and Matt Hasslebeck missing time doesn’t give them a very good chance to win games. Seneca Wallace may be fast, but he’s not really an NFL quarterback. Seattle is your archetypal middle-of-the-road team: hard to beat at home and should win 7 or 8 games and just miss the playoffs.
17. Arizona Cardinals.
Not where they hoped they’d be after last year, but better than I thought they’d be. It’s going to be tough to see the playoffs again with San Fran owning the NFC West, but the way for the Cards to do it would be establishing an identity. Coach Whisenhunt wants to “establish the run,” Kurt Warner wants to pass the pass in high volume, and Anquan Boldin just wants a large paycheck. And apparently Larry Fitzgerald’s main desire is to appear on every football magazine and website known to man.
16. Houston Texans.
Middle of the road in every aspect. Fitting that they rank 16th out of 32 teams.
15. Denver Broncos.
Quite possibly the lowest ranking you’ll ever see from a 4-0 team, but this Power Poll isn’t completely about record, it’s also about performance, and likelihood of winning the Super Bowl in February. All Denver’s done so far is beat two crappy teams, win one extremely lucky game, and defeat the ghost of Tony Romo in Denver. In reality, what they’ve accomplished is the right to get slaughtered in the first round of the playoffs, unless San Diego starts winning some games and steals back the division that is rightfully theirs.
14. Dallas Cowboys.
Speaking of Romo, what’s the matter with him? After torching the Bucs in week one, he has played like an absolute buffoon. The Cowboys can’t work the ball effectively to their wide receivers and have become very one-dimensional. The run the ball extremely well and have the best 1-2-3 RB combo in the league, but Roy Williams just flat out stinks.
13. Cincinnati Bengals.
If Brandon Stokley doesn’t catch that immaculate pass and make the miracle play in week one, it’s Cincy instead of Denver that is 4-0. But even in that case, we still can’t call the Bengals a top ten team. Winning in Lambeau was impressive, and they showed excellent resolve winning against Pittsburgh with a minute to play, but they needed to dominate Cleveland to be considered more threatening in the big picture. Winning in the waning seconds of overtime is not impressive. But what has been impressive, believe it or not, has been the Bengals defense. I know, right? If they keep it up the defensive intensity it’s going to be tough for them to be ignored in the AFC playoff picture.
12. Atlanta Falcons.
Twelve might not seem like a great ranking, but there is a chasm from 13 to 12 that really separates the contenders from the non-contenders. Atlanta will have to play very well to keep pace with New Orleans, but they have more playmakers than just about any other team on offense and they can score. Tony Gonzalez is a great fit there and the defense has played pretty well in patches, but not great overall, hence the #12 ranking.
11. Green Bay Packers.
The Pack are 2-2 and have fallen behind the Bears for second place in the NFC North. Big deal. They are still the second best team in the division and a serious contender for the NFC’s wildcard berth. The new 3-4 defense has looked brilliant at times and shaky at others, but at the end of the day they have the talent and the personnel to be very successful this season. Aaron Rodgers really is a great young quarterback and he may have the deepest arsenal of weapons to throw to in the entire league. I wouldn’t give up yet on Green Bay.
10. New York Jets.
As good as their defense is, and as good as Mark Sanchez played for three weeks, he looked so rookie-ish against the Saints that I’m scared to rank the Jets any higher than this. Make no mistake, they are legit. Revis, Jenkins, and Scott are three elite defensive players and the whole defensive unit is extremely disciplined and well-coached. You can tell by watching them that Rex Ryan really is a defensive guru. But the running game isn’t clicking and Sanchez was rattled in a big way on Sunday. The synopsis on the Jets from the get-go was simple: play great D, run the ball, and don’t let Sanchez make mistakes. Through three games it worked like clockwork; but now that Sanchez has had his one big stinkeroo, how he responds will be the difference between 12-4 and 8-8. As eyes are on you Mark.
9. San Francisco 49ers.
They could be ranked even higher than this coming off a 35-0 butt-whooping of the Rams, and in fact would be 4-0 if not for the Favre miracle in week 3. Shaun Hill is now 10-4 as a career starter and if all doubts about his ability to play quarterback have not been erased, I don’t know what else he has to do. Is he a Pro Bowler? No. Is he the future of the Niners franchise? Probably not. But for Peter’s sake, he’s a good quarterback and a proven winner. Isn’t that what it’s all about? With or without Crabtree this is a pretty dangerous offense, and Glen Coffee should be able to fill in the Gore-sized void for a few weeks. Patrick Willis is a beast of all beasts and whether he wins any accolades or not, he is hands-down one of the very best linebackers of our generation, in the class of Ray Lewis and Derrick Brooks.
8. New England Patriots.
The Pats lost to the Jets, yet are ranked ahead of them. The Pats also beat the Ravens, and are ranked behind them. That’s just the way it is for New England – they are the total mystery. Nearly everyone in America expected them to play in the Super Bowl now that Super Tom is back and healthy, but now it is in question whether they will even win the AFC East. Brady has yet to have a Brady-esque game in his first four starts, and the defense looks average at best, particularly in the secondary. That was the fear before the season, and it’s been grim since the season began. Granted, Wes Welker missed two games and when he has played he’s been slowed with a leg injury, and he sort of is the spark that makes the offense ignite. When Welker is 100%, we’ll know more about these Pats and whether they are serious contenders or pretenders.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers.
At 2-2, you may think this ranking is much too high, especially considering how sloppy and unorganized they have looked on both sides of the ball. But, Troy Polamalu is the man that makes them the league’s best defense, and he should return from a knee injury very soon. His impact will be felt immediately. Rashard Mendenhall broke out of his slump in a big way and will very soon replace Willie Parker as the go-to guy in the backfield, and Roethlisberger is having a career year passing the ball. The signs are mostly positive for the remainder of the season. Plus, the Steelers are scheduled to play Detroit and Cleveland the next two weeks, so they can coast to 4-2, and play catch-up with the Bengals and Ravens.
6. Philadelphia Eagles.
They’ve only played three games and one of them was a home loss to New Orleans, so how much do we really know about them? Enough. The defense was rocked by Drew Brees, but that’s forgivable. For the most part they look like the same Jim Johnson-led defense that puts pressure on the QB and forces mistakes; they won’t face a test as tough as Brees for the rest of the season. Kevin Kolb played like a true pro in McNabb’s absence and proved how deadly this offense really is. Top to bottom this is just a great team with playoffs written all over them.
The Top Five
5. Minnesota Vikings.
Favre looks significantly better than he ever looked as a Jet. Jared Allen doesn’t look like the pretty good player he was last year; he looks like the best DE in the league. Adrian Peterson is as dominant as ever and the best non-quarterback in the NFL. They can run and stop the run, but now they have this extra dimension where they can … throw... It’s a riveting new phenomenon for the Vikings and as much as it probably kills Vikings fans to see Favre in purple, they know as well as I do that this is the best shot they’ve had at a title in a long while.
4. Baltimore Ravens.
If they had beat New England they just might be ranked #1. And you know what, they should have beat New England. Ray Lewis complained after the game about the “roughing the passer” penalty against the Ravens, and he was absolutely right. It was an egregious call, a blatant overreaction to Brady’s injury from last season, and a ridiculous penalty in a game played between men, not girls. The “roughing” penalty wasn’t even rough enough to knock Tom down, nor was it a late hit. It was just momentum. And I lost a lot of respect for Brady when he pleaded to the ref for the penalty and celebrated when the flag was thrown. Have some respect for yourself Tom, and as Rodney Harrison said on Sunday Night Football, “Take off your skirt.” But back to the Ravens … they are clicking on both ends of the ball. Joe Flacco is playing like a definite Pro Bowler. Ray Rice is running well and Willis Freaking McGahee of all people has seven touchdowns through four games. The defense still looks dominant and if they continue to play they way they've been playing, it's going to be tough for Pittsburgh to catch them in the AFC South.
(3. New Orleans Saints.
Thanks Andy for catching the mistake -- I've got the Saints ranked third, and it's not just because of Drew Brees. True, he is playing unbelievably good this season, but he threw for over 5,000 yards last season and the Saints still finished in last place in the NFC South. This year it's a total team effort. Greg Williams has the defense playing better than any Saints defense I can ever remember, and Darren Sharper, as I noted earlier, is making more big plays than any defender in the NFL. The running game is much improved too. Total team effort. That's what they're going to need to stay ahead of Atlanta. )
2. Indianapolis Colts.
Peyton Manning is destroying defenses with such ease and such candor that it reminds me of an early 90s Michael Jordan. He's ruthless and methodical from both a physical and mental standpoint and plays at such a cerebral level that even defensive coordinators don't know what to expect until it's too late. Dallas Clark has quietly amassed some 25 catches and 350 yards through four games, and Manning has made Garcon and Collie look great in Anthony Gonzalez's absence. The offense is absolutey on fire and no one has slowed them down. The defense, well that's a different story. They haven't been bad. For the most part they've done what they need to do, shutting down offenses to the tune of 15 points per game, fourth best in the league. But they could be better, and it would certainly help their case if they were so banged up. They need Bob Sanders at 100% health to be completely effective. But don't get me wrong, the Colts have been pretty magnificient.
1. New York Giants.
The Giants are just a well-oiled machine in every way. Their the best defense in the league a top five offense .They're extremely well-coached and well-disciplined. Their an elite offense in both passing the ball and running, and their offensive line is one of the best in the league. Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career (not saying much), and is receivers have really, really stepped it up. Quite simply, the Giants are just bigger, faster and stronger than everyone they play against and are making it look easy. In the sense that football is a team sport, the Giants are the best team in the NFL through four games.
Onto the Week Five Picks
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
A good battle of 3-1 teams in the AFC South. It sure seems like Baltimore is the better team, but the Bengals aren’t just going to roll over and lose. But, since the Bengals were barely able to beat the Browns in overtime they should feel lucky to be 3-1 instead of 2-1-1. Joe Flacco continues to roll in this one, and Baltimore’s angry defense handles Palmer. Ravens 31-17.
Minnesota @ St. Louis
Two teams going in completely opposite directors. The only question here is how many yards will Adrian Peterson amass before being pulled for Chester Taylor in the second half. My guess is around 170, but it could be more. It could be a lot more. Vikings 35, Rams 13.
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
McNabb and Westbrook are both expected to return for this game. Tampa continues to start Josh Johnson at QB. This should be quite a lopsided affair, especially with the Eagles coming off a bye week. Eagles 28, Bucs 12.
Washington @ Carolina
This is one of those matchups where it’s hard to believe somebody’s gotta win. Neither Jake Delhomme or Jason Campbell is playing like a winner. But with a week off to think about their 0-3 start, I’m betting Carolina comes out and crushes a Washington team that has looked dreadful for the past three weeks, despite playing against the Rams, Lions and Buccanners. Carolina smashes them to smithereens, by a score of 38-10. Jim Zorn, your job is officially in jeopardy. Again.
Pittsburgh @ Detroit
I liked the Lions slim chances just a little bit before watching Rashard Mendenhall go berserk last Sunday night. Now that the Steelers seem to have found an offensive balance and are better able to control the time of possession, combined with injuries to Stafford and Megatron and Sims, mixed with the tremendous imbalance of talent, size, strength and speed in this game, and also the fact that the Lions special teams are horrendous, I’m going to go ahead and take a wild guess that Pittsburgh manhandles Detroit in this game. Shoot, the last time they played at Ford Field they won the Super Bowl. The Lions are not ready to compete with a team like this. Pittsburgh 27, Detroit 6.
Oakland @ New York Giants
Another blowout. Giants by at least two touchdowns. I’ll say NY 30, OAK 10.
Dallas @ Kansas City
Wouldn’t it be interesting if KC snagged their first victory in this game and really sent the Tony Romo doubters into a frenzy? It could happen. Dwayne Bowe is back to 100% and Arrowhead is never an easy place to play. But Marion Barber should also be back to full health and he could control this game and take all the pressure off Romo. It’s hard to imagine Dallas losing this one. ‘Boys win it 20-13.
Cleveland @ Buffalo
Derek Anderson against Trent Edwards … be still my heart. But seriously, if Buffalo ever wants to be taken seriously, they absolutely must win this game. At home, against a Braylon-less Browns team which is terrible. This game promises to be sloppy and virtually unwatchable. I’ve got to go with the Bills, 17-9, but I honestly couldn't care less.
Atlanta @ San Francisco
What a great NFC matchup between two good but not great teams. I really can’t wait to see who wins this one. Frank Gore’s absence might prove important in this one, as Atlanta’s defense has really stepped it up this season and Paul Coffee didn't like as amazing last week as a lot of us thought he would. A lot of interesting matchups and storylines in this game. Michael Turner against Patrick Willis. Roddy White against Nate Clements. Michael Crabtree’s first game after a month-long holdout (maybe.) I like Matt Ryan in this one; there seems to be a connection between great quarterbacks and playing great after bye weeks. I’ll take Atlanta on the road, 27-17.
Houston @ Arizona
In my Power Poll I have them ranked at 17th and 16th. This has all the makings of a very high scoring game as neither team will be able to do much to slow down the opposing offense. However, in those sorts of games you usually see a goofy 13-10 final score, so who knows what will happen. I see Arizona winning, mostly because they’re at home and coming off a bye. I’ll take the Cards by a touchdown, 35-28.
Jacksonville @ Seattle
Team #19 against team #18 in another battle of mediocre teams. The Jags are hot and Hasslebeck’s still hurt, so I’ll give this one to Jacksonville, 20-14.
(Editor's Note: Hasslebeck is active and playing in this one. I thought long and hard about changing my pick to Seattle, but after much consideration I am sticking with the Jags. By 3.)
New England @ Denver
New England faces an undefeated opponent for the third week in a row. After taking down Atlanta and Baltimore in consecutive weeks, they now provide the first real test for the 4-0 Broncos. Josh McDaniels faces his former pupil, although it could be argued that Brady actual taught McDaniels, and not vice versa. Either way, Bill Bellichek is the mastermind who created McDaniels, and he usually has pretty good success against his former assistants. The Pats offensive line is going to have a real test against a vastly improved Broncos front seven, but not as tough a test as their games against the Jets and Ravens. Will this be the week where Tom Brady finally plays like Tom Brady, and the Pats don’t kick four field goals? Actually, yes, it will be. New England wins 31-17.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
It's usually not smart to pick against Peyton Manning in a night game. I know Tennessee is 0-4 and needs to win like no other, but it’s not happening this week, no matter how well they play. I expect a great game out of them, I really do, but it won’t be enough. Mr. Commercial is in full-fledge Destroy Defenses mode. The Colts win again, 27-18.
New York Jets @ Miami
How Mark Sanchez bounces back from his first bad game of his NFL career will tell us a lot about him. But he needs to remember, all he has to do is not force anything, take it easy, and let the defense win the game for him. Will he calm down and just manage the offense, even though he's got a new receiver (Braylon) and he's playing on Monday Night for the first time? I think he'll be just fine. As for Chad Henne, he's in for a real stinker; the Jets defense are going to totally shut down Miami. Jets win, 30-15.
Those are your week five picks.
Go Lions. I'm going to Ford Field to see them be slaughtered by the Steelers, but at least I have a new Barry Sanders jersey to wear.
PS. Tigers stink
Monday, October 5, 2009
Week four results and a revised MNF pick
Week Four Picks
This was a really good week for me. First, the ones I got right, starting with the closest scores.
Prediction: Colts by 17
Actual: Colts by 17
Prediction: Steelers by 10
Actual: Steelers by 10
Prediction: Patriots by 4
Actual: Patriots by 6
Prediction: Houston by 21
Actual: Houston by 23
Prediction: 49ers by 30
Actual: 49ers by 35
Prediction: Saints by 9
Actual: Saints by 14
Prediction: Redskins by 11
Actual: Redskins by 3
Prediction: Bengals by 14
Actual: Bengals by 3
Prediction: Giants by 24
Actual: Giants by 11
Prediction: Miami by 13
Actual: Miami by 28
Prediction: Bears by 14
Actual: Bears by 24
That’s eleven correct.
And … just two wrong.
Prediction: Dallas by 7.
Actual: Denver by 7
Denver continues to amaze and befuddle me and that Brandon Marshall play reminded all of us that he's still a great playmaker.
Prediction: Titans by 6.
Actual: Jags by 20.
The big whiff. For somebody who picked Jacksonville to make the playoffs you’d think I wouldn’t be so surprised when they play a great game. Garrard has found his favorite target and he has two last names. The Titans are looking miserable.
This week: 11-2, pending Monday night.
Which reminds me, I am regretting picking the Packers (by 4) and would like to switch to Vikings (by 10). I think AP is just too much for the Packers who lack a true run-stuffer in the 3-4 (Ryan Pickett is too small).
At 29-15 overall this year, this week puts me at either 40-18 or 41-17.
Go Lions, and enjoy the Monday night festivus of Favre against the Packers.
This was a really good week for me. First, the ones I got right, starting with the closest scores.
Prediction: Colts by 17
Actual: Colts by 17
Prediction: Steelers by 10
Actual: Steelers by 10
Prediction: Patriots by 4
Actual: Patriots by 6
Prediction: Houston by 21
Actual: Houston by 23
Prediction: 49ers by 30
Actual: 49ers by 35
Prediction: Saints by 9
Actual: Saints by 14
Prediction: Redskins by 11
Actual: Redskins by 3
Prediction: Bengals by 14
Actual: Bengals by 3
Prediction: Giants by 24
Actual: Giants by 11
Prediction: Miami by 13
Actual: Miami by 28
Prediction: Bears by 14
Actual: Bears by 24
That’s eleven correct.
And … just two wrong.
Prediction: Dallas by 7.
Actual: Denver by 7
Denver continues to amaze and befuddle me and that Brandon Marshall play reminded all of us that he's still a great playmaker.
Prediction: Titans by 6.
Actual: Jags by 20.
The big whiff. For somebody who picked Jacksonville to make the playoffs you’d think I wouldn’t be so surprised when they play a great game. Garrard has found his favorite target and he has two last names. The Titans are looking miserable.
This week: 11-2, pending Monday night.
Which reminds me, I am regretting picking the Packers (by 4) and would like to switch to Vikings (by 10). I think AP is just too much for the Packers who lack a true run-stuffer in the 3-4 (Ryan Pickett is too small).
At 29-15 overall this year, this week puts me at either 40-18 or 41-17.
Go Lions, and enjoy the Monday night festivus of Favre against the Packers.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Week Three Wrap-Up, Thoughts on a Lions Victory, and Week Four Predictions
Lots of stuff for you today, due to the fact that my internet's been down for a few days and I haven't been able to post. First, your week 3 results.
Week Three Wrap-Up
Prediction: Eagles 30, KC 10
Actual Score: Eagles 34, KC 14
Analysis: I nailed this one really close. Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy played like veterans, the defense played ferocious and Kansas City played like … well, Kansas City. And as expected, Michael Vick garnered way too much attention for his 7 yards rushing and one incomplete pass.
Prediction; Ravens 35, Browns 17
Actual Score: Ravens 34, Browns 3
Not that this was tough to foresee, but it’s a good sign that the Ravens are killing the teams they’re supposed to kill. That’s what good teams do. And they’re going to need every win they can muster to hold off them Steelers for the division title.
Prediction: Giants 31, Buccaneers 24
Actual Score: Giants 24-0
Ditto what I said about the Ravens.
Prediction: Patriots 26, Falcons 23
Actual Score: Pats 26, Falcons 10
I predicted the Patriots score of 26 with the thought that they kick way too many field goals lately, and two touchdowns and four field goals later, I called their score exactly. What’s going on with their offense in the red zone? Is it the absence of Wes Welker? Is the offensive line too old and too slow to give Brady enough time? Is Tom just out of sync because of the knee and the missed time? Or am I just overreacting? Maybe, especially considering the rain made it tough to pass in this game. Next week they get their third tough game in a row against Baltimore.
Prediction: Vikings 24, 49ers 16
Actual Score: Vikings 27, 49ers 24
Favre was the hero in this game, not Peterson, with an amazing and somewhat lucky play at the end. Frank Gore’s injury reshapes the entire NFC West. Or it just gives Glen Coffee a chance to shine.
Prediction: Bears 28, Seahawks 20
Actual Score: Bears 25, Seahawks 19
Super close on this score. Seneca Wallace played pretty decent. This game was back and forth and intense at the end. It also proved that the Bears are beatable next week by Detroit; their defense was weak against the pass.
Prediction: Saints 38, Bills 24
Actual Score: Saints 27, Bills 7
The Saints did what they had to do to advance to 3-0, but Drew Brees had no TD passes. I guess we’ll have to hold off on pre-ordering the MVP trophy for him just yet … In other news, Terrell Owens had ZERO receptions. Excuse me while I laugh my head off. Saints running game was monstrous in this one and proved that they can be versatile on offense.
Prediction: San Diego 52, Miami 17
Actual Score: Chargers 23, Miami 13
Closer than I thought it would be, but the same result. Miami stinks., and now Pennington is out for the season.
Prediction: Denver 24, Oakland 16
Actual Score: Denver 23, Oakland 3
Still have no idea if Denver is actually good. They beat the Bengals on a hail mary and then beat up the Browns and Raiders. But congrats to them for being unbeaten thus far. Scoring three points is just unacceptable Oakland.
Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 16
Actual Score: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
Ha Ha Ha Ha !!!
Prediction: Colts 35, Cardinals 27
Actual Score: Colts 31, Cardinals ?
Manning is gunning for a repeat MVP season and has the Colts in excellent shape. Arizona is now 1-2 and looking completely average.
And the games I predicted incorrectly ...
Prediction: Panthers 27, Cowboys 20
Actual Score: Cowboys 21, Panthers 7
Jake Delhomme’s benching is inevitable. The Panthers are 0-3 after going 12-4 last season; meanwhile, the Cowboys are just playing okay, but with their top two running backs injured they’ve got to learn to pass the ball deep to their receivers if they hope to keep pace with the Giants and Eagles in their division.
Prediction: Houston 30, Jacksonville 14
Actual: Jacksonville 31, Houston 24
Jags desperately needed to win and they did. Jones-Drew was a beast.
Prediction: Rams 28, Packers 20
Actual: Packers 36-17
I’m an idiot.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jets 17
Actual: Jets 24-17
This was probably the hardest game to call and I was close with the score, just not the winner. Is Marc Sanchez really this good? I've been giving this game a lot of thought and this is what I realized: the 09 Jets are the 08 Titans. Off to a surprising undefeated start, led by a great defense, which features a dominant DT (Jenkins=Haynesworth), a beastly and underrated linebacker (Scott=Bullock) and an elite CB (Revis=Finnegan). They are supported by underwhelming quarterback play and a successful platoon of running backs, and a moderate spread-the-ball passing game. The Jets will race out to an excellent regular season start, something like 9-1, and finish 12-4, and then we'll all realized that they peaked too early as they lose their first playoff game. Still, you have to applaud them for being 3-0, and their matchup against the Saints this week will be extremely fun. Andd... the Titans are 0-3.
Prediction: Washington 27, Detroit 24
Actual: Detroit 19-14
You can’t blame me for picking against them. It made sense, and it almost happened. We almost gave the game away at the end. But we didn’t, and I’m glad I picked this one wrong. GO LIONS!
This week: 11-5
Season so far: 29-15
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At Last
(my thoughts on the Lions win over Washington)
Well, they finally did it. The Big Blue Idiots finally won a regular season game.
After losing nineteen straight regular season games, including the entire 2008 season, the Detroit Lions are winners once again. Sunday’s 19-14 win over Washington was your proto-typical Lions game: a great first quarter, a two-score lead at halftime, then a huge touchdown allowed, and then an inevitable fourth quarter collapse. Except the oddest thing happened on Sunday. The whole fourth quarter collapse part … never happened.
I kept waiting for it. And fully expecting it. And to be honest, it might have happened if Washington’s quarterback Jason Campbell wasn’t so unbelievable lousy. The referees even tried to engender the comeback themselves, with a phantom offensive interference penalty (which should have been a defensive interference) that negated a 60-yard pass that would have put Detroit on the one-yard line and virtually assured them the win. But with our backs against the wall, the Detroit defense played tough on several key drives at the end of the game, and didn’t allow the big play that would have given the Lions a twenty-game losing streak.
Too much credit for this win is going to go the fat face of the franchise, Matthew Stafford. That’s fine I Guess. Stafford played pretty good – his best game in Honolulu blue by a mile. Actually by more like a marathon. But let’s give credit where credit’s due: the defense, led by our relentless captain Larry Foote. A week after holding Adrian Peterson to under 100 yards and less than five yards in the first quarter, the Blue and Silver completely dominated the Redskins running game, even without Ernie Sims. (Levy played well in his place, don't you think?) Through the first three quarters, Washington had no running game whatsoever; then they took a page out of the Lion’s playbook, and started running the ball with five minutes remaining and down by two scores.
It was like a that all day - a total role reversal. The Lions were making clutch plays, converting on third downs, and calling unpredictable plays that worked at key times. Washington played the part of the loser to perfection, with sloppy plays and turnovers and lazy defense. If I was a Redskins fan, I’d be livid.
But I’m not. I’m a Lions fan to the bone. The ‘Skins have had their day and won their Super Bowls, and if they stink now and for years to come, so be it. I’m the last person who’s going to feel bad for them. In my opinion, every team that has won at least one Super Bowl deserves at least one decade of chronic losing. Make the fans appreciate the good times. “For you know that the trying of your faith develops perseverance,” James tells us, and that’s what Lions fans are made of. Perseverance.
That’s why Steelers fans bug the crap out of me. They win the Super Bowl twice in the past five years, with teams that weren’t even all that great, and act all offended and shocked when they lose one regular season game. If they lose two in the same month, everybody starts jumping off the ship. It’s ridiculous. This is the NFL – you can’t expect to win every game.
So no, I don’t feel bad for all the 0-3 teams still remaining. I don't feel an ounce of sympathy for Steeler Nation and their 1-2 team. And, you know what, if Cleveland or Tampa or Oakland loses their next 50 games, I still won’t feel bad. They should all know what it’s like. To be the brunt of all jokes, to suffer agony after agony, and to still try to hopeful about the future. It’s the hardest job in all of sports, to be a Lions fan. And if I do say so myself, I’ve done an admirable job in the past 20+ years.
And now, after more than 20 months of winless football, the perennial losers have come away with a victory. Fittingly, I watched this game unfold with my brother, the only Lions fan who has suffered more than me in the past two years. After the game, it wasn’t as much jumping and fist-pumping as you’d expect. It was a more subdued reaction; shock, joy, like discovering a relative you’d thought was dead for years was actually alive and well. We just couldn’t believe it.
Minutes after the game was over, I kept waiting for some red challenge flag. “Washington has challenged the result of the game…” or some penalty or official rule-change or for Roger Goddell to walk out on the field and announce that another victory was taken from us because Charles Rogers was on drugs or something. But once the clock expired, it was over. There was nothing we could do to lose the game. It was amazing, for lack of a better word. It was unbelievable; it was almost more difficult to accept than a loss.
But make no mistake, the Lions earned this victory. They outplayed a decent Redskins team on both sides of the ball, and they won. Straight-up, fair-and-square. We made the plays we had to make, and the new and improved roster was actually evident in this game. Guys like Foote and Grady Jackson and Julian Peterson made plays that simply were not made in 2008. There’s no question that the 2009 Lions are an improvement over the sad 2008 team, and this game finally proved it.
It was such an emotional win for the Lions and for the entire state of Michigan, which is really quite silly. We’re still a 1-2 team in last place in the NFC North, with less than slim chances of making the playoffs. Teams that are 0-2 don’t usually celebrate home victories with tears and confetti, but this is different. This is special. We needed this. Each and every one of us needed this victory.
I could launch into the more detailed specifics of how this win came to be, the key plays and key performances, but I’ll leave that to the actual coaching staff and players as they prepare for week four against Chicago. I’ll just summarize it succinctly by saying that there were some really good plays and some really bad plays, and we have to continue to work harder and improve and make more good plays. The roster needs to be continually tweaked and certain players are not off the hook just because of one victory. But for now, the Lions are revved up and ready to face the Bears, and so am I. Two wins in a row is not out of the question. Go Lions!
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Week Four Picks
Seattle @ Indianapolis
To road to 4-0 is quite easy for Indy as they face a Hasslebeck-less Seahawks team at home. Colts roll 27-10.
Tampa Bay @ Washington
Sunday’s game in Detroit got the Bucs thinking … “maybe we can finally win a game against the Redskins. Apparently, they suck.” But Tampa stinks worse than the Lions, and the Skins have motivation on their side: they are angry and embarrassed right now. Skins 28, Bucs 17.
Baltimore @ New England
There are a lot of great matchups this week and this is certainly one of them. The 3-0 Ravens go into New England to face a Patriots team that was predicted to make the Super Bowl by just about everybody (myself included), but has failed to impress anyone in a 2-1 start. The classic chess match of a great defense against a great quarterback. Both teams are well coached. But the Pats win 21-17.
New York Jets @ New Orleans
Speaking of a great quarterback against a great defense … wow. It doesn’t get much better than this in week 4. Two undefeated teams that have ‘sexy’ written all over them. The league’s best defense (which completely shut down Tom Brady two weeks ago) against the league’s best quarterback (yeah, that’s right, I just said that). Brees has led his offense to 120 points in the first three weeks (the highest scoring offense ever through three games), while the Jets have allowed only 33 points total thus far. To pour gasoline on the fire, Brees offered up some locker-room material recently by saying that the Jets defense is so blitz-crazy that they leave receivers in man-coverage on almost every down, and he thinks that he can find the open guy and the Saints will put up some really big plays. He is right; the Jets do blitz more than 60% of defensive snaps. But beating the blitz is easier said than done – the whole purpose of the blitz is to, you know, make it tough for the quarterback. This is going to be a super chess match between a great offensive coach (Peyton) and a great defensive coach (Ryan), and I don’t want to sound all over-reactive, but this might be one of the most important regular season games in terms of playoff positioning and momentum-building. As for my prediction … well, I said two weeks ago that I won’t be picking against Drew Brees until he loses a game, and so far so good. I’ll go with the Saints in this one, 30-21.
New York Giants @ Kansas City
I wonder what the spread is in this game? Giants by 14? Giants by 20? Giants by 100? I don't even think Matt Cassel is picking the Chiefs to win this one. NY 34, KC 10.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Both of these teams are the definition of desperate right now. Tennessee is 0-3 but still has a glimmer of hope at the playoffs; if they lose this one its all over. Jacksonville needed a win last week to stay alive, and they just barely got it. Now they need another. This game is going to be physical and grueling from the first snap on. Titans win 20-14.
Oakland @ Houston
Amazing that both of these teams are 1-2, considering how superior Houston is. They take the game in dramatic fashion, 35-14.
Buffalo @ Miami
Chad Henne gets his first start against a feisty but ultimately non-threatening (and heavily-injured) Bills defense. It’ll be interesting to see how the play-calling changes with Pennington now out for the season. More Wildcat or less Wildcat? Between the 'Cat and the no-huddle Bills, this game should be very interesting. Not important in the grand scheme of things, but still fun to watch and talk about. Especially funny if TO continues to not catch the ball. We're going to see some crazy fireworks explode in Buffalo. Which makes me wonder ... what is the next step for Terrell Owens? First, he told everyone that Jeff Garcia was gay (when in fact he is married to a woman) ... then he said that the Eagles would have won the Super Bowl if they had Brett Favre instead of McNabb, basically blaming the whole loss on McNabb ... And then last year, he accused Tony Romo of having 'secret meetings' with his best friend Jason Witten and leaving TO out. The guy obviously has some serious emotional and mental problems. So what's in store for Trent Edwards? What can TO possibly do next to destroy this franchise and Edwards' career? I'm hoping for something completely unprecedented and/or illegal. It wouldn't shock me if TO carried a pistol in his sock and after an incomplete pass he turned and shot Edwards dead on the middle of the field. Or shot himself. Wouldn't shock me at all.
Anyway, back to the game ... I think the Fins finally get in the win column and Henne plays a very poised game. Miami 27, Buffalo 14.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
The Bengals are very close to being 3-0. The Browns are 0-3 and playing worse than anyone in the league, and now are benching their ‘franchise’ quarterback for Derek Anderson. I just don’t get it. It took Eric Mangini about six months to make the decision to play Quinn over Anderson (which seemed like a no-brainer to the rest of us) and then after three weeks, he benches Quinn for Anderson?? I know they’re 0-3, but it’s the fault of the defense, not Brady Quinn. He’s a kid. Let him learn the game on the field, not from the sideline. Derek Anderson is not an improvement. Bengals win 27-13 and Mangini is one step closer to unemployment.
Dallas @ Denver
I know Denver is 3-0 but I’m not giving them any respect until they beat a real team. Dallas is pretty good, and then they play New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the rest of the NFC East, and the Chargers twice – that’s eight tremendously difficult games remaining, and only four easy-ish games. From a 3-0 start, the Broncos could easily finish 5-11. Now that would be funny. Go Dallas!
(I don’t know why exactly I hate the Broncos so much this year. I really have no good reason. McDaniels just really bugs me and I always want him to lose. Also I knew an annoying kid in college named Mark who absolutely loved Denver, and I guess I want him to suffer.) Cowboys win, 31-24.
St. Louis @ San Francisco
After losing on the last play of the game last week, San Fran has a bitter taste in their mouth, and now they match up against the hapless Rams. I tried to pick St. Louis last week and it made me feel like a moron. This week it’s all Niners. SF 40, STL 10.
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
This is probably the third most exciting game of the weekend, after Pats-Ravens and Saints-Jets. Both of these teams probably thought they would be undefeated or in Pittsburgh’s case, at least 2-1. But these Super Bowl hopefuls are a combined 3-3 and not playing all that well to be honest. Polamalu’s injury has hurt the Steelers defense in two straight losses and won’t help them any here, playing against a Charger offense with plenty of weapons. LT may be back on the field this week, but even if he is he’s a non-factor. I’m willing to write his career off as effectively finished as of today. He’s just a wuss, plain and simple. He stubs his toes and misses four games. I’m sick of it. Sproles is simply the better running back right now and everybody knows it. As far as the Pittsburgh offense is concerned, they might just be the worst rushing team in all of football. The offensive line can’t do anything; “Fast” Willie Parker is, ironically, extemely slow, Rashard Mendenhall is a total bust, and Mewelde Moore is a nice little third down back but that’s about it. Their whole offense consists of bad running plays and desperate passing plays. It starts with lousy blocking, then Roethlisberger improvising, then receivers playing back-yard football and trying to get open, while Roethlisberger improvises some more and does a few pump fakes and scrambles around with DTs wrapped around both ankles, and finally he launches the ball to a semi-open Ward or Holmes for a big play. It’s the sloppiest, stupidest, ugliest offense in the NFL, but it’s effective. Roethlisberger is a pretty good football player. This game is going to be exciting and an AFC Playoff preview of sorts. I want to pick San Diego but Pittsburgh’s not going 1-3, especially not at Heinz Field. Steelers 27, Chargers 17.
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Monday night, Brett Favre against the Packers. Wait, Brett Favre against the Packers? This is too big for words. This is epic. Prepare yourselves. I don’t even want to make a prediction because that would take away from the magnificent scope of this phenomenon. (I’ll just say ... Packers 28-24 to get it out of the way.) Oh man. Get ready. This is it. This is the reason Favre un-retired five million times. For this very game. Just imagine what’s going to happen in a few weeks when Favre goes to Lambeau. It’s safe to say that that will probably be the last day of John Madden’s life.
Lions @ Bears
Now, just because the Lions won one game doesn’t mean I’m ready to pick them to beat a good team on the road. The Bears are balanced and solid, but not quite as good as the first two teams we lost to this year. Urlacher is of course out for the season, which does impact their defense, even though he is wildly overrated. He’s still their leader and his absence means something. Hunter Hillenmeyer (Urlacher’s replacement) hurt himself last week and might miss this game, which would seriously weaken the Bears linebacking. Matt Forte is also hurt, but likely to play.
The Bears’ offense doesn’t seem to be clicking thus far and the meshing between Cutler and Forte doesn’t seem to be smooth (predictably so). Cutler loves to sling the ball and be the hero, but the Bears team isn’t built that way. Forte’s a great runner but thus far he’s had very little success this season. The Lions are the type of team that Cutler loves to take advantage of, because defensively we don’t put up much resistance. Gunther Cunningham is going to have to send the house at Cutler early and often, because he’s the type of quarterback who will make mistakes if you pressure him. He’s not your typical ‘cool, calm, poised’ kind of guy; he’s a ‘gunslinger,’ which is code for ‘he throws interceptions when he’s under pressure.’ I’d like to see some of those creative blitzes that Cunningham is allegedly known for, because so far the only blitz packages I’ve seen are Foote up the middle or Peterson around the end. Send Delmas or Henry; they’re the kind of hard-hitting secondary players who can blitz and make things happen. Not sure if Ernie Sims is going to play or not, but DeAndre Levy looked plenty good in his stead and if he starts again, I’m not going to cry about it.
The big story of this game will be on the other side of the ball, where former Lions coach Rod “Crowbar Up My Ass” Marinelli is coaching the Bears defensive line. In theory, he understands the Lions offensive line better than anyone and will coach his D-linemen to exploit them this week. In reality, Marinelli is a colossal moron who’s hubris outweighs his stupidity, so if he’s on the other sideline, I like our chances. The entire Lions team will be geared up to avenge the pathetic coach who “led” us to an 0-16 disaster a season ago. I’d love to see Louis Delmas run full speed and deliver a helmet-to-helmet blow to Marinelli, who, of course, would not be wearing a helmet. With the Bears injuries and general overrated-ness on defense, I hope to see the Lions run the ball as effectively as they did last week, even though Smith may not play. Mo Morris and Aaron Brown can share the load with success. And maybe, just maybe, this will be the game where the Lions actually get the ball to their playmaker. Calvin Johnson is unguardable. And Matthew Stafford, who by the way has drawn a lot of comparisons to Jay Cutler, is coming off his first ever good NFL game. ((I can’t believe I just said that)). The Stafford-Cutler comparisons are warranted; both guys are overrated, throw a lot of interceptions, and are undeniably ugly. Let’s hope our guy has another solid outing and keeps us in the game for win number two.
Prediction: Unfortunately, I’m still not sold on picking the Lions. I see this as a long, drawn-out suffering to remind us that we are still the Lions. Bears win 34-20.
Enjoy week four everyone. Go Tashard Choice, and as always, GO LIONS!!
Week Three Wrap-Up
Prediction: Eagles 30, KC 10
Actual Score: Eagles 34, KC 14
Analysis: I nailed this one really close. Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy played like veterans, the defense played ferocious and Kansas City played like … well, Kansas City. And as expected, Michael Vick garnered way too much attention for his 7 yards rushing and one incomplete pass.
Prediction; Ravens 35, Browns 17
Actual Score: Ravens 34, Browns 3
Not that this was tough to foresee, but it’s a good sign that the Ravens are killing the teams they’re supposed to kill. That’s what good teams do. And they’re going to need every win they can muster to hold off them Steelers for the division title.
Prediction: Giants 31, Buccaneers 24
Actual Score: Giants 24-0
Ditto what I said about the Ravens.
Prediction: Patriots 26, Falcons 23
Actual Score: Pats 26, Falcons 10
I predicted the Patriots score of 26 with the thought that they kick way too many field goals lately, and two touchdowns and four field goals later, I called their score exactly. What’s going on with their offense in the red zone? Is it the absence of Wes Welker? Is the offensive line too old and too slow to give Brady enough time? Is Tom just out of sync because of the knee and the missed time? Or am I just overreacting? Maybe, especially considering the rain made it tough to pass in this game. Next week they get their third tough game in a row against Baltimore.
Prediction: Vikings 24, 49ers 16
Actual Score: Vikings 27, 49ers 24
Favre was the hero in this game, not Peterson, with an amazing and somewhat lucky play at the end. Frank Gore’s injury reshapes the entire NFC West. Or it just gives Glen Coffee a chance to shine.
Prediction: Bears 28, Seahawks 20
Actual Score: Bears 25, Seahawks 19
Super close on this score. Seneca Wallace played pretty decent. This game was back and forth and intense at the end. It also proved that the Bears are beatable next week by Detroit; their defense was weak against the pass.
Prediction: Saints 38, Bills 24
Actual Score: Saints 27, Bills 7
The Saints did what they had to do to advance to 3-0, but Drew Brees had no TD passes. I guess we’ll have to hold off on pre-ordering the MVP trophy for him just yet … In other news, Terrell Owens had ZERO receptions. Excuse me while I laugh my head off. Saints running game was monstrous in this one and proved that they can be versatile on offense.
Prediction: San Diego 52, Miami 17
Actual Score: Chargers 23, Miami 13
Closer than I thought it would be, but the same result. Miami stinks., and now Pennington is out for the season.
Prediction: Denver 24, Oakland 16
Actual Score: Denver 23, Oakland 3
Still have no idea if Denver is actually good. They beat the Bengals on a hail mary and then beat up the Browns and Raiders. But congrats to them for being unbeaten thus far. Scoring three points is just unacceptable Oakland.
Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 16
Actual Score: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
Ha Ha Ha Ha !!!
Prediction: Colts 35, Cardinals 27
Actual Score: Colts 31, Cardinals ?
Manning is gunning for a repeat MVP season and has the Colts in excellent shape. Arizona is now 1-2 and looking completely average.
And the games I predicted incorrectly ...
Prediction: Panthers 27, Cowboys 20
Actual Score: Cowboys 21, Panthers 7
Jake Delhomme’s benching is inevitable. The Panthers are 0-3 after going 12-4 last season; meanwhile, the Cowboys are just playing okay, but with their top two running backs injured they’ve got to learn to pass the ball deep to their receivers if they hope to keep pace with the Giants and Eagles in their division.
Prediction: Houston 30, Jacksonville 14
Actual: Jacksonville 31, Houston 24
Jags desperately needed to win and they did. Jones-Drew was a beast.
Prediction: Rams 28, Packers 20
Actual: Packers 36-17
I’m an idiot.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jets 17
Actual: Jets 24-17
This was probably the hardest game to call and I was close with the score, just not the winner. Is Marc Sanchez really this good? I've been giving this game a lot of thought and this is what I realized: the 09 Jets are the 08 Titans. Off to a surprising undefeated start, led by a great defense, which features a dominant DT (Jenkins=Haynesworth), a beastly and underrated linebacker (Scott=Bullock) and an elite CB (Revis=Finnegan). They are supported by underwhelming quarterback play and a successful platoon of running backs, and a moderate spread-the-ball passing game. The Jets will race out to an excellent regular season start, something like 9-1, and finish 12-4, and then we'll all realized that they peaked too early as they lose their first playoff game. Still, you have to applaud them for being 3-0, and their matchup against the Saints this week will be extremely fun. Andd... the Titans are 0-3.
Prediction: Washington 27, Detroit 24
Actual: Detroit 19-14
You can’t blame me for picking against them. It made sense, and it almost happened. We almost gave the game away at the end. But we didn’t, and I’m glad I picked this one wrong. GO LIONS!
This week: 11-5
Season so far: 29-15
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At Last
(my thoughts on the Lions win over Washington)
Well, they finally did it. The Big Blue Idiots finally won a regular season game.
After losing nineteen straight regular season games, including the entire 2008 season, the Detroit Lions are winners once again. Sunday’s 19-14 win over Washington was your proto-typical Lions game: a great first quarter, a two-score lead at halftime, then a huge touchdown allowed, and then an inevitable fourth quarter collapse. Except the oddest thing happened on Sunday. The whole fourth quarter collapse part … never happened.
I kept waiting for it. And fully expecting it. And to be honest, it might have happened if Washington’s quarterback Jason Campbell wasn’t so unbelievable lousy. The referees even tried to engender the comeback themselves, with a phantom offensive interference penalty (which should have been a defensive interference) that negated a 60-yard pass that would have put Detroit on the one-yard line and virtually assured them the win. But with our backs against the wall, the Detroit defense played tough on several key drives at the end of the game, and didn’t allow the big play that would have given the Lions a twenty-game losing streak.
Too much credit for this win is going to go the fat face of the franchise, Matthew Stafford. That’s fine I Guess. Stafford played pretty good – his best game in Honolulu blue by a mile. Actually by more like a marathon. But let’s give credit where credit’s due: the defense, led by our relentless captain Larry Foote. A week after holding Adrian Peterson to under 100 yards and less than five yards in the first quarter, the Blue and Silver completely dominated the Redskins running game, even without Ernie Sims. (Levy played well in his place, don't you think?) Through the first three quarters, Washington had no running game whatsoever; then they took a page out of the Lion’s playbook, and started running the ball with five minutes remaining and down by two scores.
It was like a that all day - a total role reversal. The Lions were making clutch plays, converting on third downs, and calling unpredictable plays that worked at key times. Washington played the part of the loser to perfection, with sloppy plays and turnovers and lazy defense. If I was a Redskins fan, I’d be livid.
But I’m not. I’m a Lions fan to the bone. The ‘Skins have had their day and won their Super Bowls, and if they stink now and for years to come, so be it. I’m the last person who’s going to feel bad for them. In my opinion, every team that has won at least one Super Bowl deserves at least one decade of chronic losing. Make the fans appreciate the good times. “For you know that the trying of your faith develops perseverance,” James tells us, and that’s what Lions fans are made of. Perseverance.
That’s why Steelers fans bug the crap out of me. They win the Super Bowl twice in the past five years, with teams that weren’t even all that great, and act all offended and shocked when they lose one regular season game. If they lose two in the same month, everybody starts jumping off the ship. It’s ridiculous. This is the NFL – you can’t expect to win every game.
So no, I don’t feel bad for all the 0-3 teams still remaining. I don't feel an ounce of sympathy for Steeler Nation and their 1-2 team. And, you know what, if Cleveland or Tampa or Oakland loses their next 50 games, I still won’t feel bad. They should all know what it’s like. To be the brunt of all jokes, to suffer agony after agony, and to still try to hopeful about the future. It’s the hardest job in all of sports, to be a Lions fan. And if I do say so myself, I’ve done an admirable job in the past 20+ years.
And now, after more than 20 months of winless football, the perennial losers have come away with a victory. Fittingly, I watched this game unfold with my brother, the only Lions fan who has suffered more than me in the past two years. After the game, it wasn’t as much jumping and fist-pumping as you’d expect. It was a more subdued reaction; shock, joy, like discovering a relative you’d thought was dead for years was actually alive and well. We just couldn’t believe it.
Minutes after the game was over, I kept waiting for some red challenge flag. “Washington has challenged the result of the game…” or some penalty or official rule-change or for Roger Goddell to walk out on the field and announce that another victory was taken from us because Charles Rogers was on drugs or something. But once the clock expired, it was over. There was nothing we could do to lose the game. It was amazing, for lack of a better word. It was unbelievable; it was almost more difficult to accept than a loss.
But make no mistake, the Lions earned this victory. They outplayed a decent Redskins team on both sides of the ball, and they won. Straight-up, fair-and-square. We made the plays we had to make, and the new and improved roster was actually evident in this game. Guys like Foote and Grady Jackson and Julian Peterson made plays that simply were not made in 2008. There’s no question that the 2009 Lions are an improvement over the sad 2008 team, and this game finally proved it.
It was such an emotional win for the Lions and for the entire state of Michigan, which is really quite silly. We’re still a 1-2 team in last place in the NFC North, with less than slim chances of making the playoffs. Teams that are 0-2 don’t usually celebrate home victories with tears and confetti, but this is different. This is special. We needed this. Each and every one of us needed this victory.
I could launch into the more detailed specifics of how this win came to be, the key plays and key performances, but I’ll leave that to the actual coaching staff and players as they prepare for week four against Chicago. I’ll just summarize it succinctly by saying that there were some really good plays and some really bad plays, and we have to continue to work harder and improve and make more good plays. The roster needs to be continually tweaked and certain players are not off the hook just because of one victory. But for now, the Lions are revved up and ready to face the Bears, and so am I. Two wins in a row is not out of the question. Go Lions!
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Week Four Picks
Seattle @ Indianapolis
To road to 4-0 is quite easy for Indy as they face a Hasslebeck-less Seahawks team at home. Colts roll 27-10.
Tampa Bay @ Washington
Sunday’s game in Detroit got the Bucs thinking … “maybe we can finally win a game against the Redskins. Apparently, they suck.” But Tampa stinks worse than the Lions, and the Skins have motivation on their side: they are angry and embarrassed right now. Skins 28, Bucs 17.
Baltimore @ New England
There are a lot of great matchups this week and this is certainly one of them. The 3-0 Ravens go into New England to face a Patriots team that was predicted to make the Super Bowl by just about everybody (myself included), but has failed to impress anyone in a 2-1 start. The classic chess match of a great defense against a great quarterback. Both teams are well coached. But the Pats win 21-17.
New York Jets @ New Orleans
Speaking of a great quarterback against a great defense … wow. It doesn’t get much better than this in week 4. Two undefeated teams that have ‘sexy’ written all over them. The league’s best defense (which completely shut down Tom Brady two weeks ago) against the league’s best quarterback (yeah, that’s right, I just said that). Brees has led his offense to 120 points in the first three weeks (the highest scoring offense ever through three games), while the Jets have allowed only 33 points total thus far. To pour gasoline on the fire, Brees offered up some locker-room material recently by saying that the Jets defense is so blitz-crazy that they leave receivers in man-coverage on almost every down, and he thinks that he can find the open guy and the Saints will put up some really big plays. He is right; the Jets do blitz more than 60% of defensive snaps. But beating the blitz is easier said than done – the whole purpose of the blitz is to, you know, make it tough for the quarterback. This is going to be a super chess match between a great offensive coach (Peyton) and a great defensive coach (Ryan), and I don’t want to sound all over-reactive, but this might be one of the most important regular season games in terms of playoff positioning and momentum-building. As for my prediction … well, I said two weeks ago that I won’t be picking against Drew Brees until he loses a game, and so far so good. I’ll go with the Saints in this one, 30-21.
New York Giants @ Kansas City
I wonder what the spread is in this game? Giants by 14? Giants by 20? Giants by 100? I don't even think Matt Cassel is picking the Chiefs to win this one. NY 34, KC 10.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Both of these teams are the definition of desperate right now. Tennessee is 0-3 but still has a glimmer of hope at the playoffs; if they lose this one its all over. Jacksonville needed a win last week to stay alive, and they just barely got it. Now they need another. This game is going to be physical and grueling from the first snap on. Titans win 20-14.
Oakland @ Houston
Amazing that both of these teams are 1-2, considering how superior Houston is. They take the game in dramatic fashion, 35-14.
Buffalo @ Miami
Chad Henne gets his first start against a feisty but ultimately non-threatening (and heavily-injured) Bills defense. It’ll be interesting to see how the play-calling changes with Pennington now out for the season. More Wildcat or less Wildcat? Between the 'Cat and the no-huddle Bills, this game should be very interesting. Not important in the grand scheme of things, but still fun to watch and talk about. Especially funny if TO continues to not catch the ball. We're going to see some crazy fireworks explode in Buffalo. Which makes me wonder ... what is the next step for Terrell Owens? First, he told everyone that Jeff Garcia was gay (when in fact he is married to a woman) ... then he said that the Eagles would have won the Super Bowl if they had Brett Favre instead of McNabb, basically blaming the whole loss on McNabb ... And then last year, he accused Tony Romo of having 'secret meetings' with his best friend Jason Witten and leaving TO out. The guy obviously has some serious emotional and mental problems. So what's in store for Trent Edwards? What can TO possibly do next to destroy this franchise and Edwards' career? I'm hoping for something completely unprecedented and/or illegal. It wouldn't shock me if TO carried a pistol in his sock and after an incomplete pass he turned and shot Edwards dead on the middle of the field. Or shot himself. Wouldn't shock me at all.
Anyway, back to the game ... I think the Fins finally get in the win column and Henne plays a very poised game. Miami 27, Buffalo 14.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
The Bengals are very close to being 3-0. The Browns are 0-3 and playing worse than anyone in the league, and now are benching their ‘franchise’ quarterback for Derek Anderson. I just don’t get it. It took Eric Mangini about six months to make the decision to play Quinn over Anderson (which seemed like a no-brainer to the rest of us) and then after three weeks, he benches Quinn for Anderson?? I know they’re 0-3, but it’s the fault of the defense, not Brady Quinn. He’s a kid. Let him learn the game on the field, not from the sideline. Derek Anderson is not an improvement. Bengals win 27-13 and Mangini is one step closer to unemployment.
Dallas @ Denver
I know Denver is 3-0 but I’m not giving them any respect until they beat a real team. Dallas is pretty good, and then they play New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the rest of the NFC East, and the Chargers twice – that’s eight tremendously difficult games remaining, and only four easy-ish games. From a 3-0 start, the Broncos could easily finish 5-11. Now that would be funny. Go Dallas!
(I don’t know why exactly I hate the Broncos so much this year. I really have no good reason. McDaniels just really bugs me and I always want him to lose. Also I knew an annoying kid in college named Mark who absolutely loved Denver, and I guess I want him to suffer.) Cowboys win, 31-24.
St. Louis @ San Francisco
After losing on the last play of the game last week, San Fran has a bitter taste in their mouth, and now they match up against the hapless Rams. I tried to pick St. Louis last week and it made me feel like a moron. This week it’s all Niners. SF 40, STL 10.
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
This is probably the third most exciting game of the weekend, after Pats-Ravens and Saints-Jets. Both of these teams probably thought they would be undefeated or in Pittsburgh’s case, at least 2-1. But these Super Bowl hopefuls are a combined 3-3 and not playing all that well to be honest. Polamalu’s injury has hurt the Steelers defense in two straight losses and won’t help them any here, playing against a Charger offense with plenty of weapons. LT may be back on the field this week, but even if he is he’s a non-factor. I’m willing to write his career off as effectively finished as of today. He’s just a wuss, plain and simple. He stubs his toes and misses four games. I’m sick of it. Sproles is simply the better running back right now and everybody knows it. As far as the Pittsburgh offense is concerned, they might just be the worst rushing team in all of football. The offensive line can’t do anything; “Fast” Willie Parker is, ironically, extemely slow, Rashard Mendenhall is a total bust, and Mewelde Moore is a nice little third down back but that’s about it. Their whole offense consists of bad running plays and desperate passing plays. It starts with lousy blocking, then Roethlisberger improvising, then receivers playing back-yard football and trying to get open, while Roethlisberger improvises some more and does a few pump fakes and scrambles around with DTs wrapped around both ankles, and finally he launches the ball to a semi-open Ward or Holmes for a big play. It’s the sloppiest, stupidest, ugliest offense in the NFL, but it’s effective. Roethlisberger is a pretty good football player. This game is going to be exciting and an AFC Playoff preview of sorts. I want to pick San Diego but Pittsburgh’s not going 1-3, especially not at Heinz Field. Steelers 27, Chargers 17.
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Monday night, Brett Favre against the Packers. Wait, Brett Favre against the Packers? This is too big for words. This is epic. Prepare yourselves. I don’t even want to make a prediction because that would take away from the magnificent scope of this phenomenon. (I’ll just say ... Packers 28-24 to get it out of the way.) Oh man. Get ready. This is it. This is the reason Favre un-retired five million times. For this very game. Just imagine what’s going to happen in a few weeks when Favre goes to Lambeau. It’s safe to say that that will probably be the last day of John Madden’s life.
Lions @ Bears
Now, just because the Lions won one game doesn’t mean I’m ready to pick them to beat a good team on the road. The Bears are balanced and solid, but not quite as good as the first two teams we lost to this year. Urlacher is of course out for the season, which does impact their defense, even though he is wildly overrated. He’s still their leader and his absence means something. Hunter Hillenmeyer (Urlacher’s replacement) hurt himself last week and might miss this game, which would seriously weaken the Bears linebacking. Matt Forte is also hurt, but likely to play.
The Bears’ offense doesn’t seem to be clicking thus far and the meshing between Cutler and Forte doesn’t seem to be smooth (predictably so). Cutler loves to sling the ball and be the hero, but the Bears team isn’t built that way. Forte’s a great runner but thus far he’s had very little success this season. The Lions are the type of team that Cutler loves to take advantage of, because defensively we don’t put up much resistance. Gunther Cunningham is going to have to send the house at Cutler early and often, because he’s the type of quarterback who will make mistakes if you pressure him. He’s not your typical ‘cool, calm, poised’ kind of guy; he’s a ‘gunslinger,’ which is code for ‘he throws interceptions when he’s under pressure.’ I’d like to see some of those creative blitzes that Cunningham is allegedly known for, because so far the only blitz packages I’ve seen are Foote up the middle or Peterson around the end. Send Delmas or Henry; they’re the kind of hard-hitting secondary players who can blitz and make things happen. Not sure if Ernie Sims is going to play or not, but DeAndre Levy looked plenty good in his stead and if he starts again, I’m not going to cry about it.
The big story of this game will be on the other side of the ball, where former Lions coach Rod “Crowbar Up My Ass” Marinelli is coaching the Bears defensive line. In theory, he understands the Lions offensive line better than anyone and will coach his D-linemen to exploit them this week. In reality, Marinelli is a colossal moron who’s hubris outweighs his stupidity, so if he’s on the other sideline, I like our chances. The entire Lions team will be geared up to avenge the pathetic coach who “led” us to an 0-16 disaster a season ago. I’d love to see Louis Delmas run full speed and deliver a helmet-to-helmet blow to Marinelli, who, of course, would not be wearing a helmet. With the Bears injuries and general overrated-ness on defense, I hope to see the Lions run the ball as effectively as they did last week, even though Smith may not play. Mo Morris and Aaron Brown can share the load with success. And maybe, just maybe, this will be the game where the Lions actually get the ball to their playmaker. Calvin Johnson is unguardable. And Matthew Stafford, who by the way has drawn a lot of comparisons to Jay Cutler, is coming off his first ever good NFL game. ((I can’t believe I just said that)). The Stafford-Cutler comparisons are warranted; both guys are overrated, throw a lot of interceptions, and are undeniably ugly. Let’s hope our guy has another solid outing and keeps us in the game for win number two.
Prediction: Unfortunately, I’m still not sold on picking the Lions. I see this as a long, drawn-out suffering to remind us that we are still the Lions. Bears win 34-20.
Enjoy week four everyone. Go Tashard Choice, and as always, GO LIONS!!