Week 12 Thoughts and an Updated Power Poll

Week 12 was the week of the major comeback, especially among teams with playoff hopes. The Colts have more than just hopes for the playoffs; they’ve already clinched the AFC South, but they still won in dramatic fashion, overcoming a 20-0 early deficit to rout the Texans, who have proved they have no heart. The Eagles underperformed in what should have been an easy game against Washington, but the ‘Skins kept shooting themselves in the foot (or, kicking themselves in the foot, as FOX broadcaster Joe Buck said on Sunday, whatever the heck that means) and finally Philly took advantage and came from behind to win. The most dramatic comeback was Tennessee triumphing over Arizona on 4th and goal with ten seconds to play in the Vince Young vs. Matt Leinart reunion, winning their fifth straight and putting themselves in the wildcard race. (Unfortunately for them, they have the Colts next week, so they’re going out of the race as quickly as they entered it.) Atlanta won in the same fashion Tennessee did, on a desperation 4th down with less than 30 seconds to play; Chris Redman played a solid game in Matt Ryan’s absence and Tampa Bay played a very Lions-seque game. They dominated early and then played so conservatively with the lead that they gave Atlanta every chance to come back, until they finally did, putting themselves also in the wildcard picture. Both conferences have three of four teams that are definitely playoff-bound, and a huge heap of teams still clinging to playoff hopes. That’ll begin to be sorted out in the next one or two weeks.

The big losers of the weekend were the Giants, who lost badly to Denver, also losing Eli Manning for what could be a lengthy period of time, and then watched both Philly and Dallas win, sticking them in third place in the NFC East. To make matters worse for the G-men, Green Bay, Atlanta and San Fran all won as well, making the wildcard race in the NFC all the more difficult for them. By losing, both Chicago and Carolina are now definitely out, along with the Lions, Redskins, Bucs and Rams. Seattle and San Fran maintain slim hopes to win the NFC West if Arizona starts losing, which could happen next week against the Purple Favres.

Speaking of old #4, he now has 24 TDs on the season to go with 3 interceptions. Yes that’s right, just THREE INTERCEPTIONS, a league-low among starting QBs. In fact, Brett just played the entire month of November without throwing one pass to the opposition. This is unprecedented. Forget the yards and TDs and winning all the games; we’ve seen Brett do that before. What is amazing to me is how he has reinvented his game at the age of 39 and become the most careful gunslinger in the NFL, and puts every pass right on the money. No more of the idiot Favre who used to wear green and try to chuck the ball through a linebacker’s chest; this version of Favre is an absolute terror to play against because he doesn’t make mistakes, but he isn’t a pansy either. He’s just playing basically as close to perfect as he can, and sticking it to the Packers more and more each week, with his middle fingers raised high in the air.

That being said, we can’t just hand over the MVP trophy to Brett after week 12, as much as we all want to. We still have two very worthy and unbeaten quarterbacks in Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, and they haven’t exactly been turnover machines. Favre probably gets the edge if the award is given out today, but fortunately, it isn’t. The next four weeks will determine the 2009 MVP; quite simply, whichever of these three excellent QBs plays the best while winning games will win the award. It should become fairly clear by week 17, unless of course they all continue to play perfectly.

There is, however, one other candidate who should be mentioned. No, not Tom Brady. Not Roethlisberger, or Warner, or Palmer or Rivers or Romo. Not Adrian Peterson either. I’m talking about the one and only Chris Johnson. Or as I like to call him, Barry Sanders With Style. When he was drafted last year with the 24th overall pick, he was known as a speedster and nothing else. Maybe a kick returner or change-of-pace back. Well, it turns out that not only is he the fastest running back in the league, seriously, maybe ever, BUT he’s also one heck of a player. He’s got great balance and vision, the two most important intangibles for an RB, and he’s got more power than people realize. Take yesterday’s game against Arizona: CJ goes through the middle on what would be a 5-yard gain for most backs, but his burst to the outside and blazing speed turns it into an 85-yard TD. Did you see that play? Absolutely marvelous. He’s on pace for 2,000 rushing yards, and he’s catching the ball as well. He’s played his heart out every week, even when the Titans were 0-6, and now the Titans are finally winning. He has a streak of six straight games of 125 yards; he’s averaging an absurd 6.5 yards per carry; he just set a record for the most yards ever gained in one month, 800 yards in November, breaking the previous record held by, who else, but Barry Sanders. If CJ keeps up this pace and rushes for 2,000 yards and leads Tennessee to an 8-8 or better record, he deserves the 2009 MVP award. Just because he doesn’t have a gray beard like some MVP candidates, it’s time Chris Johnson gets the credit he deserves.

And speaking of running backs, the past two weeks proved an important NFL lesson: get yourself a solid backup. We all know the importance of having a competent backup QB – Matt Cassel proved that point last year. But with injuries to nearly a dozen starting running backs this season, replacements are leading their teams to victories all over the NFL. Jamaal Charles has taken over for LJ in KC and been fantastic, scoring 50 fantasy points over the past 3 weeks. LeSean McCoy has been better than Brian Westbrook was this season; Jason Snelling filled in beautifully for Turner last week, and Justin Forsett did the same thing this week for Seattle. Ryan Moats scored three TDs a few weeks ago. Tashard Choice and Fred Jackson were great for stretches this season; Mike Bell was great when PT Cruiser was in the shop; Rock Cartwright played pretty well this week. You get the picture.

Of course, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the ultimate backup running back, former psycho pot-head Ricky Williams, who has re-re-re-established himself as one of the premier running backs in the NFL, and is a top ten fantasy back from here on out, no question. What a remarkable season he is having, and since Ronnie went down with the injury Ricky has 4 TDs and close to 300 yards in the past two games. I know everybody wants to hand over the Comeback Player of the Year award to Vince Young, but isn’t Ricky a much more deserving nominee?

That being said, Miami did lose to the Bills, which put a strangle-hold on their playoff hopes. Houston’s loss to Indy was a killer, but they’re not out of it quite yet either. Neither are the Jets, who stayed alive by beating Carolina. The Chargers and Broncos both won, keeping San Diego ahead by one game in the AFC West. Cincinnati took care of the Browns, while the Ravens outlasted Dennis Dixon and Pittsburgh in overtime, bringing both teams to 6-5 and two games behind the Bengals, who hold all the tiebreakers. In order for the Bengals to not win the North, they’re going to have to lose at least twice, and they’re next game is against Detroit, so things are looking great for the Bengals despite losing to Oakland just two weeks ago. The Patriots and Colts are going to win their divisions, so that leaves the wildcard race to the Jets and Fins, Steelers and Ravens, Titans and Texans, and the AFC West runner-up, which I believe will be Denver.

There’s a lot of football left to be played, and some key games that will dictate who makes the playoffs and who plays golf. And as we’ve seen in recent years with the ‘04 Steelers, the ‘07 Giants and the ‘08 Cardinals, all you need is an 9-7 record and a wildcard berth and you can make it all the way to the Super Bowl. All it takes is good health, chemistry at the right time, and getting a little bit of luck. Or, being a dominant team like the Colts and the Saints is always helpful too.

Without further ado, here is your updated Week 12 Edition of the NFL Power Poll:

1. Indianapolis.
Clinched the AFC South, and close to clinching home-field throughout the playoffs. But it hasn't been easy - they've come from behind in the fourth quarter to win five times in a row. No team has ever done that before.

2. Minnesota.
I have them ahead of New Orleans in anticipation of the Pats winning tonight. Minnesota's one loss was a game they could have and should have won, and they've been blowing everybody away since. Favre, Peterson and Jared Allen are all top ten players in the NFL this season, and the rest of the team is pretty dang good too.

3. New Orleans.
I don't know if they'll win tonight or not ... If they win, they move up to #2 and possibly #1. But I expect that they'll lose. I don't think they're tested or tough enough, or good enough defensively. But they might win tonight due to having Drew Brees, and Sean Payton who deserves to be coach of the year for the second time in four years.

4. New England.
They're only 7-3 and might be 7-4 after tonight ... if they win, they move up a spot to #3, and even if they lose, I'll keep them here at #4 simply because they have Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and that's enough to win against anyone. I'm thinking I should have written this after the Monday night game, because we don't know anything just yet ...

5. Cincinnati.
I've got the Bengals at #5 even though they lost to Oakland just two weeks ago. Why? They've got a great record, they win close games, they play great defense, Carson Palmer doesn't make many mistakes, and their path to the playoffs is pretty clear. Plus they get to destroy the Lions this week. But there is a huge drop-off from #4 to #5.

6. Pittsburgh.
They get a bit of a mulligan because Dennis Dixon started last night and they still almost won. Without Polamalu, they are a middle-of-the-road team, and without Polamalu and Roethlisberger, they are below average. But with both guys on the field next week, they are as good as anybody in the league. They won't be missing the playoffs, as badly as I hope that happens.

7. San Diego.

I could have ranked as high as #5, but I don't completely trust them to hold off Denver for the AFC West. I still contend that Tomlinson is washed-up, and no contention needs to be made that this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That being said, however, they've won six games in a row, the last two by a combined 58 points.

8. Dallas.
Are the Cowboys the 8th best team in the NFL? Probably not. They aren't very good defensively and Tony Romo is the poster boy for inconsistency. But there aren't a lot of other options here and the 'Boys 8-3 record is tied for the fourth best record in the NFL. Miles Austin just might be a 10 ten MVP guy this year, because without him Dallas is probably sitting at 3-8 instead of 8-3.

9. Philadelphia.
Dallas shouldn't get too comfortable with the Eagles right behind them at 7-4. No team has a greater array of offensive weapons that Philly, and no player is as threatening as DeSean Jackson when it comes to big plays. No lead is safe against them. That includes a one-game lead in the division.

10. Arizona Cardinals.
Losing to Tennessee yesterday was not a step in the right direction, but it was also without Kurt Warner. I'm think that if Kurt played, he may have accumulated more than 34 measly yards to Larry Fitzgerald and the Cards may have won. As it is, they almost won anyways. The NFC West is theirs for the taking and the defense is improved from last year.

11. Green Bay.
I believe they'll miss the playoffs because of the injuries to Kampman and Harris, but they looked just fine against the pathetic Lions on turkey day. They've won three straight and seem to have remedied some of those offensive line woes. Now they get an extra four days rest for a Monday nighter against the Ravens.

12. New York Giants.
This is pending the health of Eli's foot, but I think the Giants are still to be reckoned with.

13. Tennessee Titans.
A five game winning streak is legit, but let's not blow this out of proportion. The Colts and Saints are on 11 game winning steaks; Minnesota's won ten of eleven. I heard someone assert that Vince Young is a viable MVP choice. I'm sorry, since when did winning five games in a row prove anything? However, Chris Johnson is sickeningly good, as I said earlier.

14. Denver.
Dumervil still a defensive MVP candidate and Moreno is starting to heat up, but Denver is still pretty dang average after a ridiculous 6-0 start.
15. Baltimore.
Flacco has been unable to duplicate his magical rookie season, but Ray Rice has quietly had a top 5 season at the running back position and carried the Ravens offense on his back.

Middle of the Roaders ....
16. Atlanta
17. Miami.
18. San Francisco.
19. Jacksonville.
20. Houston.
21. Seattle.
22. Carolina.
23. New York Jets.

Suckers...
24. Kansas City.
25. Tampa Bay.
26. Washington.
27. Buffalo.
28. Oakland.
29. St. Louis
30. Chicago.
31. Cleveland.
32. Detroit. Given the injuries to Stafford, Calvin, Pettigrew and Sims, I don't think the Lions win another game this season. The attitude of losing has permeated the entire team. The secondary is disgusting; the pass rush is even worse. The play-calling is terrible; Kevin Smith is terrible; Bryant Johnson is terrible; Stafford is terrible; the special teams are worse than terrible. The Lions are back to being the worst team in the NFL. The only relevant question is, with a top five pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, whom should the Detroit Lions select? I don't know anything about the choices, but I'm leaning towards defensive line. Maybe cornerback. Maybe O-line. Depends on the free agency. They've got to purge the roster all over again and get rid of some of the riff-raff. Stop collecting other team's leftovers and build a real NFL team. This season has been one big giant terd.

week 13 picks to come later this week .....

11-5 week 12 and
112-60 overall

**NOTE::
After watching MNF, I would change my MVP vote from Favre to Brees, after his 5 TD, 371 yard masterpiece. I also move the Saints up to #2 on the Power Poll. Not sure whether to leave the Pats at 4 or move them down to about 10. Doesn't really matter I guess ... they really sucked tonight though.

week 11 ...

last week 10-6
overall 101-55

but in fairness, nobody in the world would have picked the chiefs and raiders against the bengals and steelers.

week 12 picks::
(thanksgiving)

packers @ lions
I really want to pick the Lions here, but there are more reasons to pick Green Bay than Detroit. For Detroit, you can say "They are riding momentum. They are home. They usually do pretty well on Thanksgiving. And the Packers just lost two key defenders (Al Harris and Aaron Kampman) for the season. Plus Green Bay is kind of overrated, and their O-line completely stinks."
For Green Bay, you can say, "Stafford is out, Calvin is likely out, which means Culpepper has had a 3-day week to prepare for a 3-4 defense that's still pretty good, and he has no one to throw the ball to. Bryant Johnson is awful. A-Rodgers has his whole arsenal of weapons and destroyed the Lions a couple months ago. Having a lousy offensive line doesn't matter against a team with no pass rush. Plus, do you really think the Lions are going to win two in a row? I don't think so ..."

So I'm picking Green Bay. I think they'll make it look easy and embarass the Lions on national TV. The injuries to Harris and Kampman are ultimately going to spell doom for the Packers' playoff chances, but just not this week. GB by 13.

Oakland @ Dallas
Much like the Lions aren't going to win two games in a row, the Raiders (who shocked Cincinnati last week on a fortunate fumble) are not beating Romo and the 'Boys in big D. It's just not happening. Interesting question though: will Nnamdi Asomugha be matched up against Roy Williams (the Cowboys alleged #1 receiver) or Miles Austin? If he matches up against Roy, it's an easy day for Nnamdi but Miles goes nuts for 200 yards. If he matches up with Austin, then he shuts him down, but Roy Williams goes postal and starts twittering about how he should be the #1 guy and demands respect It's an interesting dilemma for Nnamdi. And the fact that that's the first thing that came to mind with this game provens that Roy has reached the ultimate diva status of an idiot NFL receiver. Millions of Americans can't wait to watch Bruce Gradkowski on Thanksgiving. Oh man. Dallas by 21.

Giants @ Broncos
If Denver loses, they will have dropped from 6-0 to 6-5, which would be historically hilarious. Let's look at the facts: Kyle Orton has a gimpy ankle, Brandon Marshall got in a fight with Knowshon Moreno last week when the Broncos were blasted by 30 points at home, their defense has been exposed as a fluke, and New York is in desperate need of a win to keep pace for the playoffs. Eli has three very good receivers and two very good running backs to work with, and a defense that got a whole lot better with the return of cornerback Aaron Ross last week and is still rushing the passer as well as anyone. Denver has an elite left tackle (Ryan Clady) who should be able to contain Umenyiora, but the Giants can create pressure via the blitz and Justin Tuck up the middle. I just think New York has more good players and more momentum. And a better coach. Giants by 10.

(the sunday games ... )

Tampa @ Atlanta
Falcons win big. (by 18)

Seattle @ St. Louis
So do the Seahawks, who remarkably are only favored by 3 points. (they'll win by at least 14)

chiefs @ chargers
And San Diego wins by 20ish.

miami @ buffalo
TO had a dynamite game last week against jacksonville, but the bills still lost. miami is coming off a 9-day week (they won last thursday thanks to a huge ricky williams game), and should be able to dissect a subpar bills defense, especially given the extra days to prepare. miami's not out of the wildcard picture and this win will help. dolphins by 17.

washington @ philly
the redskins are terrible offensively and now will be without both portis and betts. rock cartwright might have a cool name and might have an okay statistical game, but he's not going to baffle the eagles defense, and philly will force campbell to pass the ball. asante samuel blankets santana moss and washington really has no offense in this game. philly, meanwhile, is an offensive juggernaut and they keep on rolling here. eagles by 20.

carolina @ ny jets
two 4-6 teams with slim chances at wildcard berths. the jets started out 3-0 while the panthers started 0-3, so carolina has been the much better team over the past two months. much better. the first month of the season, the jets would have won this game - kris jenkins would have been able to clog up the panthers run game. but with him out for the season, new york has fallen apart on defense and deangelo is going to run wild in this game. the jets season is living proof that a 3-4 defense lives and dies by the nosetackle. great nosetackles can dictate coverage and blitz schemes and make your defense flexible and unpredicatable, while undersized nosetackles make the entire defense suffer. that's why the packers shouldn't have switched. but anyway, how many interceptions can we expect to see in this game, with delhomme and sanchez duking it out? at least six right? maybe ten? carolina by 14.

cleveland @ cincinnati
last time these afc north rivals played, the browns forced overtime and the game came within a minute of being a tie. then the bengals became a powerhouse. and then they lost to the raiders. so my question is, are the bengals actually good? i mean, they almost lost to the browns, and they did lose to oakland. but what's the point of worrying about that now, they are winning this game and next week they face the lions, so they're still going to the playoffs. but only winning this one by 6 or so. i'd bet the under and the browns.

indy @ houston
i really want to pick houston. they're at home, they almost beat indy a few weeks ago, and the colts should have lost the past two weeks. the colts are due for a loss. and if houston wins, it's the biggest win in their franchise's history, and they freak out. but, i'm still picking the colts. by 6.

jacksonville @ san fran
two of my favorite preseason sleepers who are both having very mediocre seasons. gore and jones-drew should both amass a ton of yards in this one, but i like jacksonville to win the game and keep the streak alive. Jacks by 3.

bears @ vikings
cutler sucks. cutler sucks. hahahaha. cutler sucks. vikings by 16.

cardinals @ titans
well, after starting 0-6, tennessee is 5-6 and chris johnson looks more and more like barry sanders every week. can arizona stop him? no they can't. but can tennessee stop the cards passing attack? nope. this should be interesting. and high-scoring. i like tennessee. well, i like both teams, but i think the titans win due to ball-control offense and home-field advantage. tennessee by 7.

pittsburgh @ baltimore
roethlisberger should play. polamalu will be out. flacco is coming off a string of some terrible performances, including blowing the game last week with a red-zone INT against the colts when they were down 2 and a field goal would have won it. last season these were the two best defenses in the world. now, with troy injured, this may actually be a barn-burner. i don't think pittsburgh is the kind of team that loses two games in a row. that's not a very good reason, but that's all i got. stellers by 10.
*EDIT - Ben is out, Dixon is in. I'm taking the Ravens. ***

and now for the big one ...
patriots @ saints
there's a lot to unpack in this game. the undefeated saints at home in the loudest dome in the nfl riding a momumental wave of emotion ... versus the dynasty powerhouse cheating patriots and their hated coach and gorgeous quarterback and we're-better-than-you attitude. this is the MNF game of the year. the two best passing offenses in the nfl. but you know all that...
my pick is going to be the patriots. i said a long time ago that i wasn't picking against drew brees until he lets me down. well, here i go. i'm sticking with new england. this is going to be such a hype-fest and new england thrives in those games, while the saints are unfamiliar with the pressure. drew brees hasn't ever played in a game like that. brady has, a dozen times at least. welker and moss will have no problem getting open against the saints secondary, and brady proved two weeks ago that a loud crowd on the road doesn't affect him. we know the saints aren't going 19-0 or even 16-0, so we have to pick against them eventually. this is the best shot for them to lose. new england completely outplayed the colts two weeks ago, and i believe the colts have been more impressive than the saints this season. so i'm picking the pats. by 4.

go lions. happy thanksgiving.
gobble gobble.

Just an Observation...

Because I haven't said much about the 09 Pistons, here is one observation from the early season...

Small-ball didn't work when it was Rip, Stuckey and Iverson. It was a disaster.
This season, small-ball works brilliantly when it's Gordon, Stuckey and Bynum.
Obvious conclusion: Will Bynum is a better player than Allen Iverson right now. I'm dead serious. Better scorer, no. But better all-around player, yes.

In fact, Bynum is probably the second best player on the Pistons right now, behind only Gordon. Villanueva is too inconsistent and Stuckey is too raw and sometimes tenative. Bynum simply makes things happen. He's like a small version of 2004 Ben Wallace - it doesn't make any logical sense, but he just gets the job done.

(In a related story, Iverson is an NBA free agent - he was released by the Grizzlies after just three games because he refused to come off the bench... gee, that sounds familiar - and now that he is available to the general public for a cheap price, absolutely nobody wants him. Not even guard-needy teams like New York and New Jersey. I find this absolutely hilarious.)

All this being said, the Pistons still have to win some games. We can't go 0-4 on this west trip. We still aren't in good position to even make the playoffs. Let's get on a streak or something.

In other news, I saw the second Twiilight movie today. Not sure if I should be embarassed about that. Probably. But it wasn't half-bad. Much better than the first.

Go Lions tomorrow. Beat the stupid Browns, please!!

stupid website

so now i can paste again, but the 'enter' button doesn't work ...?? i keep going into the posts and hitting enter and then when i submit all the text is crammed
together and impossible to read ... i know it looks retarted,
i'm trying to fix it but i can't.
this website sucks.

The Redemption of Big Ben

The Redemption of Big Ben

In my first class at Cornerstone University, Foundations of Inquiry, we learned that the Christian worldview can be summarized in three easy steps: Creation. Fall. Redemption. All things were created; all things are fallen; all things will be (or are being) redeemed.

For proof, look no further than Ben Wallace.

When Ben was traded to the Detroit Pistons before the 2000 season for oft-injured star Grant Hill, he was a nobody. He was an undrafted vagabond who had played a few season with the Washington Bullets (remember them?) and one half-decent season in Orlando, averaging just 5 points and 8 rebounds per game. He was an offensive liability (some things never change), shooting less than 40% from the free-throw line. He was a John Doe in the NBA, an invisible man with no story, no legacy, no fame.

Joe Dumars took a chance on Ben Wallace in 2000; he saw something in the undersized center – limitless energy, hustle, raw emotion. He saw unparalleled work ethic and potential that could be molded into a defensive superstar. Or, maybe he was just dumping Grant Hill’s humungous contrast to whoever was stupid enough to take it. Either way.

In his first season in Detroit, Ben averaged 13 boards and 2 blocks a game. He started all 80 games he played. He grew corn-rolls. He and Jerry Stackhouse (insert Ben and Jerry’s joke here) led the Pistons out of the wretched ‘teal jersey’ days and into the playoff picture. The next season, Ben led the Pistons to the playoffs, led the NBA in both rebounds and blocks, and won his first of four defensive MVP awards.

Over the next five seasons in Detroit, Big Ben Wallace the mega-star was created. “Fear the Fro” was the Pistons new mantra. Ben cemented a legacy as one of the greatest defensive players in NBA history, and pound-for-pound, the best defensive force, ever. Ben could completely shut down opposing centers who outweighed him by 100 pounds.

Ben Wallace was a man possessed, a man who made four All-Star games despite having a career scoring average of 6 PPG and a historically horrific free-throw percentage of just about 41%. (In contrast, most NBA centers shoot anywhere from 70% to 80% from the line.)

The Pistons, under Rick Carlisle and Larry Brown, became one of the best defensive teams of the modern era. They held opponents under 70 points an unprecedented five games in a row in 2003. They made the Eastern Conference Finals six times, winning one NBA title in 2004 and being seconds away from winning another one in 2005, and they did it all by playing defense. Chauncey was the brain, Rip was the legs, Rasheed was the mouth, and Tayshaun was the long arms, but Ben Wallace … Ben was the heart and soul of those Pistons teams.

He was the heart and soul of Deeeeetroit Basketball, the icon of both a city and a team, and one of the most recognizable figures in the NBA back in 2004.

And then the Fall happened …

You know the story. A few months ago, I wrote all about it. Ben Wallace fled Detroit, left the town that created him, betrayed the ones who made him a legend, etc. He signed with the Bulls, and suddenly he was terrible, he was pathetic, yada yada yada … Then he went to Cleveland, and was even more horribly pathetic, and then he was traded to Phoenix who didn’t want him, and he reached the lowest of lows, and all the sins of men sat as blood stains on his hands. (That’s a Zach Vinson lyric btw). He was a disgrace, a loser, a Judas.

Just like every one of us. A fallen man. An imperfect citizen of the realm of humanity.

So like I said, Ben Wallace fell. He succumbed to greed and he believed his own hype. Individually he became a monster, and on the court he became a disaster. It was a two-way fall, to be sure. He was a lousy basketball player, a lousy human being, and an afterthought for Pistons fans who had moved on. We still had one other Wallace left to cheer for, and that one could actually catch a pass from ten feet away.

Well, now Rasheed is gone too, and so is the Pistons “dynasty.” Chauncey’s gone, Rip is faking an injury and ready to be traded, and Tayshaun is apparently going to miss most of the 2009 season with a ruptured disc in his back. Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Rodney Stuckey is the core of our team looking toward the future, and the future is bleak. To be frank, the Pistons are lucky to be 3-4 right now and have a microscopic chance of even making the playoffs this year. A top five draft pick in the 2010 NBA draft is more likely than another trip to the ECFs.

But there’s one silver lining to the Pistons 2009 season that no one could have expected.

Ben Wallace.

Averaging 9.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks through the first seven games, Ben appears to have rejuvenated his career (somewhat) just by breathing Michigan air again. He’s playing almost 30 minutes a game, hustling on defense and keeping plays alive – which is what the Pistons so desperately need, and even shooting 50% from the stripe. Is he back to his 2004 self again? No way. Is he going to beat out Dwight Howard for his fifth Defensive MVP this year? Not a chance.

But has he experienced just a little bit of the redemption that permeates all things?

Absolutely.

It’s like the end of a really good movie. Things started out great, then they started to slip away, and then they hit rock bottom. But then redemption creeps in, slowly and sometimes painfully, and the empowering music plays and the character starts to right the wrongs of their past. Redemption is one of the most powerful forces in all the world, and seeing that emancipation in the career of one of the Pistons’ all-time greats is a powerful, wonderful experience. It really is. I know, I wrote just a few months ago that I wanted to break Ben Wallace’s fingers or stab him with my car keys, but that was a rough time for all of us. This redemption came, as it usually does, quite unexpectedly.

Watching the first game of the season, my brother and I vowed not to cheer for Ben Wallace or even acknowledge his presence on the court until he strings together some 10-rebound games, or swats a few shots into the stands, or personally shows up at my house and apologizes for bolting to Chicago. Well, you can’t deny the hustle he’s brought to the court in the first two weeks of the season. You can’t hold a grudge forever. Maybe by forgiving and forgetting, myself and Pistons fans everywhere can experience the beautiful redemption that Ben is experiencing.

Yeah, I know Ben isn’t a long-term solution, and I know he’s not going to be enough to lead us past the Cavs in the Central Division. This isn’t an article about winning and losing games. It’s about a guy’s life, and a fan’s betrayal, and the reconnection of two kindred spirits. This is bigger than basketball.

The fourth step of the Christian story, sometimes excluded from the Creation-Fall-Redemption narrative, is called Consummation. (Also called heaven.) The full redemption of all things, the world that way it should be.

And one day, several years from now, when Big Ben’s #3 jersey is lifted ceremoniously into the rafters of the Palace of Auburn Hills, a heavenly light will shine down upon us, and the angels will smile and play their harps, and the Big Ben gong will sound once again.

///

Oh... and here are the week ten picks, a week late.

Chicago @ San Francisco

Singletary avenges his old team. San Fran wins on the road.

(Correct)

Atlanta @ Carolina

This would be a huge upset for Carolina, but I don’t see it. To beat Atlanta you have to be able to pass deep on them and Jake Delhomme is inept and inaccurate. Plus DeAngelo Williams is nicked up and the offense really revolves around him. Defensively the Panthers don’t have an answer to Michael Turner or the Falcons’ passing game – it’s pick your poison, and either way, Atlanta’s winning this game.

(Incorrect ... apparently Matt Ryan is no longer any good)

New Orleans @ St. Louis

Could it be any easier for the 8-0 Saints to roll to 9-0? Actually, maybe. This is a road game. St. Louis is coming off a bye and before that, a win. Steven Jackson could run amuck against a Saints run D that hasn’t really been tested this season, except when it was pummeled by Miami’s Wildcat. Rams’ coach Steve Spagnuolo, a defensive mastermind, has had two weeks to prepare for Drew Brees and the Saints potent offense. But you know what? Honestly, Spagnuolo could have two years to prepare for this game, and it wouldn’t matter. The Rams simply lack the talent on defense to stop New Orleans. Plain and simple. It’s all about Drew Brees – the Saints may actually need him to win this game, and he’ll be up to the task. Saints by a closer score than anyone expects, 21-17. If you’re betting the spread, I’d take the Rams.

(Correct ... I called Saints by 4, they won by 5. Ding ding ding.)

Tampa Bay @ Miami

No way the Buccaneers win two games in a row. Miami has been competing with the big boys – almost beating New England and New Orleans in recent weeks – and should have no trouble manhandling a semi-pro team like Tampa Bay. This could be a big confidence-building game for Chad Henne, because Miami won’t have to resort to the Wildcat to beat up the Bucs. Fins win.

(Correct ... barely)

Detroit @ Minnesota

Week two of the season, Detroit could have and should have beat the Vikings. The held Adrian Peterson to a meager game by his standards, they sacked Brett a few times and they led 10-0 early. Of course they tanked in that game and have progressively gotten worse every week since. Matt Stafford is a worse quarterback today than he was eight weeks ago. Favre, meanwhile, is playing like a Pro Bowler at the age of 39. His receivers are making big plays down the field, particularly Sidney Rice, who the Lions will have no answer for. Rushing four down lineman gives the Lions no chance to pressure Favre in this game, and you can’t give Favre time to create a play. He can do it better than anyone. Yet, if Gunther sends gaga blitz packages, Minnesota is good enough to pick up the extra blitzer and Favre will find the hole in the coverage. They’ll kill you with the screen passes too, and oh yeah, I almost forgot about Adrian Peterson. Funny how that keeps happening. When the Lions have the ball, there’s a chance that Calvin might finally get going or Kevin Smith can run on the Vikings like he has in the past, but it won’t be enough. Especially with the horrible play recently of Stafford, who will be pressured by Jared Allen all day long. Vikings cruise in a laugher, 32-16.

(Correct ... I picked Vikes by 16, they won by 17 ... I am really good at picking Lions games)

Jacksonville @ New York Jets

Both of these teams are 4-4 and quite mediocre. Ironically, these were my two pre-season picks for the AFC Wildcard berths. So I have been subconsciously rooting for them both to make the playoffs all season. The good news is one of them gets a win on Sunday; the bad news is one of them falls out of contention altogether. I think MJD could have a field day against the Jenkins-less front 7 of the Jets, but Revis should shut down MSW and force Garrard to look elsewhere. Thomas Jones should likewise have a big day, and Sanchez should be able to settle into a rhythm against a mostly non-threatening Jags pass rush. I believe the Jets come out on top in this one, but it could be close if Sanchez makes too many dumb mistakes. I’ll say Jets 20-16.

(Wrong ... Jags won, thanks in part to MJD taking a knee at the 1 ... the little rascal)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

If Pittsburgh wins, that’s six straight for them and the AFC North is in their grasp. If Cincy wins, they will be partying like mad after sweeping both the Ravens and Steelers. The Bengals next three games after this are: Raiders, Browns, Lions. Wow. It will be tough for them not to get caught up thinking “We can lose to Pittsburgh and still cruise to 9-3.” The reality is both of these teams WILL be in the playoffs this year, and this probably won’t be the last time they play each other. As for this game, Pittsburgh wins at Heinz Field and takes back the division that is rightfully theirs. Steelers 20-14.

(Wrong ... Cincinnati wins my respect)

Buffalo @ Tennessee

After starting 0-6, the Titans are about to be 3-6. Good for them. This game is not going to be much fun to watch though. Titans win 21-14.

(Correct ... except it was pretty fun to watch, as Chris Johnson continues his sparkling Barry Sanders impression and the Titans owner did a nice impression of an 86-year old jackass)

Denver @ Washington

The Broncos care; the Redskins don’t. That’s the difference in this game, because the disparity in talent isn’t as great as people think. Denver might actually steamroll them by 30 just to prove a point. I can’t see how the Redskins offense gains more than 100 yards in this game, with Portis doubtful and with Campbell playing so horrifically, plus Cooley’s out too. I’ll say the Broncos win by at least two touchdowns.

(Way wrong ... I hate you Denver)

Kansas City @ Oakland

Something’s gotta give – KC’s brutal pass D against JaMarcus’s inaccurate arm. It just seems like KC should win this game so both teams are 2-7, rather than the Raiders having 3 wins. But it’s tough to pass on Oakland in Oakland when the matchup is this easy. Remember Oakland beat Philly in Oakland a month ago. So I don’t know. It could go either way. Both teams are so sloppy and ugly, I really have no idea. I’m gonna pick the Raiders I guess. By six.

(Wrong ... that's the last time I ever pick Oakland)

Seattle @ Arizona

For the Cards, if they win this game they control the division and can start thinking about the playoffs. If they lose, they have to keep looking over their shoulder. For Seattle, this is do-or-die. Both teams have a lot to play for; NFC West interdivision battles are usually pretty heated. I’m actually excited about this game. And against the Seahawks awful secondary, I think Warner and Fitzgerald have a second consecutive field day. Arizona wins 34-24.

(Very correct)

Dallas @ Green Bay

Can the Pack get back on track at Lambeau? Or will the Cowboys win their fifth in a row? Interesting fact for you: since Miles Austin entered the Cowboys starting line-up, Dallas is undefeated, and Austin is on a psychotic 16-game pace for over 2,000 yards and 20+ TDs. That’s pretty impressive. He faces a Packers secondary with some big names (Harris, Woodson) who have not really lived up to their reputations this season. This looks like one of those games where I feel like I should pick Green Bay, but then Dallas wins. I like Green Bay more, and I want them to win, but I have to say I think Dallas is the better team right now. Cowboys by five.

(Wrong ... should have gone with my gut)

Philadelphia @ San Diego

Last time Philly traveled to the west coast, they lost to Oakland. Now they face a much, much more difficult test, a Chargers team that is surging and catch up with Denver. Philly is very solid on both sides of the ball, but I just don’t want to pick against the Chargers right now. Especially at home. Bolts by a touchdown.

(Correct)

New England @ Indianapolis

This is the best regular season game of the whole year. I can’t wait. I’ll be watching this one live at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana, wearing my Barry Sanders jersey and rooting on the Patriots. I can’t wait. It’s going to be awesome. Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the late prime of their careers. Two brilliant offenses and mediocre defenses. Sunday Night football. The undefeated Colts against the red-hot Patriots. The two best teams of the decade. Man, it’s going to be great. Regardless of who wins and who loses, both teams are going to the playoffs, no question. But it does matter, for home-field advantage reasons and for pride. Brady and Manning hate losing to each other. If the Colts win, 16-0 is now in the picture. If the Pats win, no one can say that they’re not the best team in the NFL. As for my pick, well, it really doesn’t matter, because I’ve picked the Sunday Night game wrong five or six weeks in a row. I know that Manning is basically unbeatable on night games, but how many of those have been against Brady? I’ll pick the Colts solely for home-field reasons, but I wouldn’t bet any money on it.

(Amazing game to watch, amazing crowd to be in, amazing finish ... hey I even got the pick right, thanks to Bill Belichick and his super-stupid gamble)

Baltimore @ Cleveland

This might be the silliest Monday Night Football game of my life. The Browns? Seriously, THE BROWNS??? ESPN can only hype up the “Cleveland used to be Baltimore” angle for so long. This is going to be so ugly. Cleveland is pitiful, terrible, and disgraceful. Ravens by 20.

(Dead on)

The week 10 picks look pretty silly in retrospect. Oh well. Go Lions.

It's Fixed!

Week 11 Picks:

Jets @ Patriots

This is the lock of the week, because of the way New England lost last week. Not only will the Pats win this game, but it will be brutal, they'll run up the score, and the Jets will want to run home crying. How stupid do you think Rex Ryan feels for all his ‘We’re not scared of them’ preseason trash talking? The Jets are 1-5 in their last six games and really not a good team at all, especially with Kris Jenkins gone for the year. Revis might be able to slow down Moss, but no way Brady lets them stay in the game; there will be no second-guessing Belichick after this game. Pats by 24.

Browns @ Lions

As redundant and unwatchable as the Lions-Rams game was a few weeks ago, this might be even worse. Seriously. The Browns offense has scored five touchdowns in its last fifteen games. With the way in which Detroit gives up yards, something has got to give. We’re either looking at a “breakout” game for Brady Quinn, or a “statement” game for the Lions defense. Either way, it will be overblown and a little ridiculous. No matter the outcome, one certainty is that Jamal Lewis scores his first rushing TD of the season in this game, and another is that Calvin Johnson has his best game of the season, which won’t take much. This could actually be fun to watch, because both teams are so viciously inept and untalented that anything is possible. Including the Lions second victory of the season. The boys in blue by 6.

Seahawks @ Vikings

The Seahawks are a pretty solid team with two glaring flaws: they have a horrible secondary, and an even worse offensive line. The Vikings are extremely well-balanced and they can beat you in so many ways that they should be able to simply outmatch Seattle on both sides of the ball and win this one easily. Seattle has no answer for Jared Allen and no way of stopping Brett Favre (and believe me, I want to stab myself with a handful of staples just for typing that), and of course, no way of stopping AP. Seattle’s one chance of winning is to abandon the running game early and chuck the ball 50 times. Minnesota’s secondary is not bad though, and I don’t see that working out well for Hasslebeck. Vikes by 20.

Steelers @ Chiefs

Kansas City is one of those teams that should never be completely counted out when they’re at home. That being said, the Dwayne Bowe suspension is killer for them and it’s never fun to play Pittsburgh when they are in need of a win. Them Stellers are going to be without their defensive superstar once again, but Polamalu’s absence doesn’t matter in this game. KC covers the spread, but Pittsburgh wins by a touchdown.

49ers @ Packers

Green Bay is coming off a huge home win against Dallas to keep them in the playoff picture, and now stays at home for a visit from the mediocre 49ers. But San Fran has had 9 days to prepare for this game and Singletary is a smart coach. I don’t know what else to say. I’m pretty sure there are the two teams I’ve picked incorrectly the most this year. I’ll just flip a coin and say … Green Bay. By three.

Colts @ Ravens

I watched enough of the Browns-Ravens snoozefest to confirm an assertion I’ve held for a long time now: Joe Flacco just isn’t very good. Yeah, the Colts secondary is decimated and just got punished by Moss and Welker, but Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton are not Moss and Welker. Baltimore’s offense is, dare I say, just a little overrated. Plus, let’s not forget that the Colts are the best team in the NFL, and led by the best player in the NFL. I’ll take Indy by 17.

Redskins @ Cowboys

I was morbidly shocked to discover that Washington had beaten Denver last week, but maybe I shouldn’t have been. After all, my preseason analysis was that Washington was good, and Denver was not. Ladell Betts has always been a capable back and Campbell is playing better now that Jim Zorn isn’t calling the plays. They could have success against Dallas, who by the way, isn’t all that good on defense, and is prone to random lapses in meaningful games, such as this one. I’m going to continue the wave of Redskins-shock and pick Washington, by 6.

Bills @ Jaguars

Is it just me, or have the Jags not played a difficult opponent in the past five or six weeks? They shouldn’t have any trouble beating the Bills, and don’t look now, but they’ll be 6-4 if they do. Jacksonville by 10.

Falcons @ Giants

New York is coming off a bye and needs to win this game. Fortunately for them, Matt Ryan has apparently forgotten how to play quarterback. Giants by 10.

Saints @ Buccaneers

I’m gonna go out on a limb and take the Saints.

Cardinals @ Rams

Another limb … I’ll take Arizona…

Bengals @ Oakland

Once more … Cincinnati by 24…

Chargers @ Broncos

When these teams matched up week six and Denver came away victorious, Denver was 6-0 and San Diego was 2-3. It was all over. But since that game, Denver has lost three straight, while the Bolts have won four straight, making both teams 6-3 and making this the single most important AFC West game in the history of the 2009 season. Here's my prediction: San Diego loses, and still manages to win the division. That's kind of their style. Broncos by six.

Eagles @ Bears

Isn’t it funny how the Bears defense has become a complete sieve? McNabb and Co. should have very little trouble torching them through the air and forcing Jay “The Turnover” Cutler to launch the ball into heavy coverage. But that’s what Jay wants to do anyway, so everyone wins. Speaking of everyone wins, this Bears season has been a complete joy to watch for the entire nation. Everyone hates Cutler and cheers against him. Cutler has played horrifically, much to the delight of everyone, and seems to degeneratively play worse with each interception. Has there ever been a more unanimously hated player who isn’t actually any good, but all the ‘experts’ pretend like he is good so that makes rooting against him all the more enjoyable? I think not, except for maybe Vince Carter. Eagles win by 15 and stay in the hunt.

Titans @ Texans

Is there a more embarrassed individual over the past week in sports than 86-year old owner of the Titans Bud Adams, who gave the middle-finger salute to Bills fans last week? And not just once, but about fifteen times. Team owners are supposed to stay invisible as best they can, or only make appearances for beneficial reasons or to accept championship trophies. To pull this crude, juvenile act (which was completely unwarranted) is just flat-out embarrassing and sad, especially for an 86-year old man. I’m glad he got fined a quarter-million dollars, and I hope that money is put to good use. But as far as the MNF game, I’m thinking the Titans winning streak comes to an end and that Houston (who had two weeks to prepare for this game, which is much more significant for them than it is for Tennessee) wins by 14 and stays in the Wildcard discussion.

Last week: 8-7

This week, so far: 0-1

i cant figure out why, but it is no longer possible to paste anything into this space. which basically makes this website and this blog worthless. because nobody actually types the whole thing in here, do they? i'm really annoyed. i'm not allowed to use the blogger.website at work so i can't write the picks or anything else there. blah!

picks ...

my pick for thursday night football, Dolphins @ Panthers:

i'm taking the panthers. i think ronnie's injury really kills the dolphins offense and forces chad henne to actually play quarterback and throw to very sub-par receivers. i don't think ricky runs the 'cat as well as ronnie. i'll take the panthers, who, if they win, will be back in the playoff picture after an 0-3 start.

the rest of the picks to follow.

last week: 8-7
overall: 91:49

week 10 picks

i wrote up the picks in Word and for some crazy reason it won't let me copy/paste. but the picks must be up before tonights bears-49ers game to be legit.

so, briefly:
bears
falcons
saints
dolphins
vikings
jets
steelers
titans
broncos
raiders
cardinals
cowboys
chargers
colts
ravens

also i wrote a bit about Ben Wallace which i think is pretty decent, and i'll post that once the paste works again.

*Note: Paste is still broken 11-14. this website apparently is retarted.

last week: 8-5
overall: 83-42

Thoughts on the Lions' Fat-Faced Franchise QB, plus Week Nine Picks

An Honest Question About Matthew Stafford

The other day, while watching Monday Night Football at Boston’s Pizzeria, a guy by the name of Jon Timmer asked the question, “How good is Matthew Stafford… like where does he rank from 1-32?” My immediate answer, “Probably around 38 or 40.” A guy by the name of Crazy Keith agreed with me. I began to think of all the backup QBs in the league that are more appealing starting options than Stafford, and there were a lot of them. This honest question that Timmer posed is intriguing, especially considering that the Lions drafted Matt Stafford with the 1st overall pick and are paying him the kind of money I can’t even dream about.

There are three ways to look at Timmer’s question:

Rank every quarterback in the league, with their current contracts.

Rank every quarterback if signed to a hypothetical 1-year, $5 million dollar deal, to win the 2010 Super Bowl.

Rank every quarterback, signed to a 6-year, $50 million dollar deal, to be your franchise QB.

With each question the list changes significantly. Let’s start with the first one. Of all the quarterbacks in the NFL, current contracts included, where would I rank Matthew Stafford?

Dead last. That’s right, last. Worst. Assuming every team has 3 QBs on the roster, that’s 96th out of 96. There are some terrible QBs out there, and some terribly overpaid QBs, but there are only two guys who fit into both categories: Matt Stafford, and JaMarcus Russell. Unlike Russell, Stafford actually has a snowball’s chance in hell of one day being a legitimate quarterback. But the reason I’d rather have Russell and his current deal is that 2 of the 6 years on his deal are already done; I’d rather be stuck with Russell for 4 years and about $42 million than Stafford for 6 years and $72 million. No question.

In fact, of all the players in the entire NFL, there is no one I would want LESS than Matt Stafford, current contracts included. The only close choices are Russell, Albert Haynesworth ($100+ over the next seven years) or Terrell Suggs (6 years, $63 million) or perhaps Eli Manning’s $107 million contract. All of these players are preposterously overpaid. But the difference between them and Stafford? They can all actually help you win. Stafford can help you lose.

Which leads to the next question: if I could sign any quarterback to a 1-year contract for 2010 and pay them all a constant salary, who would it be, and where would Stafford rank?

I’ve tackled this conundrum before, but usually at the top of the list, debating the merits of Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks. Not unless you’re a Lions fan do you even need to think about the bottom of the list. But anyway…

Numbers 1-3

Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees.
Or Brees, Brady, and Manning.
Or Brady, Manning, Brees.

In some order. That’s a debate to be resolved some other time – like the 2009 postseason. For now, it’s obvious that those are your top three, and I have no idea which order to rank them in.

4 - Ben Roethlisberger.

For the first five years of his career, all he did was win Super Bowls. Now he studies defenses; he has mastered the pump fake; he is unquestionably the best out-of-the-pocket QB in the NFL. And, he’s one of the best two-minute-drill QBs. He really is becoming the total package. The only thing he lacks is a likeable personality.

5 – Brett Favre.

He’s proved the doubters wrong this year, leading Minnesota to a 7-1 record and smoking Green Bay twice. Why is he the fifth best quarterback to sign to a one-year deal, even at the gray age of 40? Because he’s got more than 475 games of NFL experience; that’s almost a solid month of on-the-field game experience. Compare that to rising star Matt Ryan, who has less than 24 hours of on-field NFL experience.

6 – Kurt Warner

With Warner coming off a six-turnover game, the timing for this ranking isn’t very good. But that’s what you get with Kurt: some stinkbombs along with some 400 yard masterpieces. He showed last year that he knows how to lead and win in the playoffs, and that’s what I want if all I’m getting is a one-year deal. Plus, he’s a born-again Christian. That’s gotta count for something.

7 – Aaron Rodgers

If not for the Packers’ leaky offensive line, A-Rod would be having a much better season, and the Pack would be 5-2, at least. He’s wouldn’t get any better protection from the hypothetical 2010 Lions, but he remains a strong-armed, mobile and smart QB who would excel on a better offense.

Numbers 8 - 19

Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Matt Hasslebeck, Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, David Garrard.

In some order, that’s twelve starting quarterbacks who are undoubtedly better than Matt Stafford, hands down, not even close, no question about it. There’s a time and a place to rank them more accurately, but this isn’t it.

20 – Kevin Kolb
The best back-up in the NFL, and maybe a top-10 QB when he gets his chance to shine someday.

21 - 23
Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Jake Delhomme.
All having bad seasons, but all had great seasons last year. I’d rather have a guy who sucks but has proven that he can play, than a guy who sucks and has no track record.

24 – Mark Sanchez.
Stafford’s fellow rookie QB has played some awful games as of late, but he hasn’t played down to the level of Mr. Stafford yet. His team is still gaining yards and he can still throw with some accuracy. Sanchez has 8 TDs and 10 picks; Stafford has 3 TDs and 7 picks. Stafford’s run the ball in twice, but Sanchez has run in three times. Plus Sanchez didn’t miss three games with a (fake) injury, all because he didn’t want to look stupid against Pittsburgh (like Stafford did).

25 – 26
Alex Smith, Shaun Hill.
I’m not sure what to make of the 49ers situation, but I know for sure that both of these guys are better right now than Matthew.

27 – Jim Sorgi.
I’ve never actually seen him play, but I’m just assuming …

28-37
Jon Kitna, Kellen Clemens, Matt Redman, Seneca Wallace, Chad Pennington, Sage Rosenfels, Kyle Boller, Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Todd Collins.

Ten capable backup QBs who are all better QBs than Stafford if given the same offense to work with. For just a one-year deal, remember. And there’s one other guy …

38 – Charlie Batch.
Ouch.

39 – Trent Edwards
Now we get to the truly terrible guys. Uck…

40 – Jason Campbell.
Truly horrible. Truly better than Stafford.

41 - 43
Brady Quinn, David Carr, Matt Leinart.
I’m not convinced that all three of these guys are completely useless. For just one season. I think you win more games with any one of these guys than Matthew.

44 – Derek Anderson.
This is the most painful one yet. Anderson’s passer rating this season is 36.2, which is worse than if he were to throw the ball into the crowd on every single play. But he had a great season in 2007, and Stafford has never had one good NFL game. I’d rather have Anderson. I would, I’m telling you.

45 – Jeff Garcia.
He’s old and been out of the league a while, but I’m guessing he’d still do an okay job.

46 - 47
Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford.
Since this is for a hypothetical 2010 season, than yes, I would rather start one of these rookies fresh out of the gate than fat-faced Stafford. They were better last year in college and they’ll be better once they join the NFL.

48- Matthew Stafford.
Forty-eight. That might look like a horrible ranking, but hey, take heart Matthew: at least you rank above 20 or so other guys who play QB professionally, including: Marc Bulger, JaMarcus Russell, Byron Leftwich, Josh Johnson, Josh Freeman, Matt Moore, Kevin O’Donnell, Brooks Bollinger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bruce Gradkowski, Byron Leftwich, Daunte Culpepper, Brad Johnson, Brian Brohm, Drew Stanton, Rex Grossman, Michael Vick, Vince Young, and Joey Harrington.

We have a lot to be proud of Lions fans.

And now for the most pertinent question: which quarterback would you most want to build a franchise around, if financial obligations were not a factor? This is obviously Matt’s best chance, because of his youth and his supposed “upside.” I’ll try to rid Stafford’s nightmarish contract from my consciousness and judge fairly, forgetting about the $72 million dollars the Lions spent on the chubby kid who doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing…

1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
I think the first two guys have more years left in the tank than Peyton, but no way you can go wrong with any of these three.

4. Ben Roethlisberger

5. Matt Ryan.
I really, really like this kid’s future. He’s a young Drew Brees.

6. Aaron Rodgers.
7. Joe Flacco.
8. Carson Palmer.
9. Tony Romo.
10. Phillip Rivers.
11. Kevin Kolb.

11. Mark Sanchez.
The kid they call ‘Sanchise’ is the definition of a franchise QB: he’s bubbling with energy, leadership, poise, moxie, likeability… all those intangibles that really truly matter. And Stafford has none of them. Literally, none.

12. Matt Schaub.
13. Eli Manning.
14. Jay Cutler.

15. Matt Hasslebeck
16. Donovan McNabb
Neither of these two have many years left in their careers, but I’d rather have two or three solid years than six crappy years.

17. Matt Cassel.
18. David Garrard.

19. Matt Stafford …

This is significantly better than I was expecting to rank him… but with his youth and the possibility of someday being good, he’s a more appealing option than someone’s who already proven how low their ceiling is. From what I’ve seen from Stafford so far, I think he’s the next JaMarcus or the NFL’s version of Darko. You have to wonder how SO many NFL scouts can be SO WRONG, and completely whiff on the #1 overall pick. But it’s happened before. More than once. It’s amazing those guys have jobs.

But anyway, the fact that Stafford ends up in my top 20 of QBs to build a team around both surprises and amazes me. Mind you, this is in a make-believe world where Stafford only makes $8 million a year instead of $12 million a year. Remember that in the real world, Stafford and his contract are the most deadly, team-killing combination in the NFL and the reason that the Lions won’t be climbing out of the NFC North basement for another decade, unless Stafford suddenly turns things around and becomes a Pro Bowler. What are the chances of that happening? Realistically, maybe 20%. Maybe less.

But still on the promise of that hope, I’m willing to rank Stafford above guys like Leinart, Quinn and Vince Young; above Trent Edwards and Jake Delhomme and even Brett Favre, who honestly might play six more years in the NFL; even ahead of Jason Campbell and both 49ers QBs and the enigma that is Jim Sorgi, all of whom are better than Stafford at present day.


So with all that being said, let’s get on with the Week Nine Picks.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
It might not seem like it at first glance, but this just might be the most important game of the week. The winner keeps pace with Pittsburgh, and the loser falls behind in the playoff race. (That’s assuming Pittsburgh beats Denver on Monday night, which is a safe assumption). Both of these teams play excellent football on both sides and are well-coached. Baltimore is just a little bit better, but Cincy is at home, coming off a bye, and riding a wave of blow-out momentum. The Ravens, who handed Denver its first loss, are also on an emotional high. Expect this one to be well-fought and come down to the wire. I see game coming down to the last play, and Baltimore’s kicker - who missed the potential game-winning field goal against Minnesota a few weeks ago - goes from goat to hero. Baltimore 28-27.

Houston @ Indianapolis
The Texans are playing good as of late – three wins in a row, and completely shutting down the opposing running game – but they are no match for Indy. Nobody is. However, this does have the makings of a letdown game because the Colts might be caught thinking about New England next week. If Tony Dungy were still the coach, this would be a non-issue. Tough test for Jim Caldwell or whatever his name is. But the Colts still have Peyton Manning, so they should be fine. It’ll be raining fantasy points in this one. Indy 38-27.

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
The classic battle of the Bays. This used to be a great rivalry when both teams played in the old NFC Central. Now it’s an utter mismatch. Both of these teams are extremely frustrated right now; the Packers just got beat by Brett Favre. For the second time this season. At Lambeau Field. Tampa, meanwhile, has the stench of being the only winless team now on their hands. Green Bay is just a little bit more pissed off, and a whole lot more talented, so they roll here – Packers by 15.

Arizona @ Chicago
The difference in this game is that Arizona can afford to lose this game, because the NFC West is awful, while Chicago can’t afford to lose in the competitive NFC North. Is that enough edge for the Bears to win? I’m a little nervous whenever Kurt Warner plays an outdoor game in the cold, but geez, doesn’t it seem like we’re long overdue for Fitzgerald to completely dominate a game and win singlehandedly? (Or maybe I just think that because I just traded for him in fantasy football?) This game completely baffles me. I don’t know anything about either of these teams. I’ll go with Arizona because they have the likeability factor. AZ by 6.

Kansas City @ Jacksonville
What a Stink Bowl. Jags by 4.

Here’s an interesting story: Chiefs fans started an online petition begging the general manager to extend Larry Johnson’s suspension and keep him off the team, indefinitely. Why? Because LJ is 75 yards from surpassing Priest Holmes as KC’s all-time leader rusher, and they vehemently don’t want that to happen. Says the petition: “(Johnson) has never represented anything close to the values that we have for our Chiefs and it would be another dagger to the fans that continue to support this proud franchise.”
My thoughts: You’ve got to give the fans what they want!! I can completely relate to this. When you have nothing to cheer for on the field and only the pride of your franchise, you can’t live with a blemish like Larry Johnson as your team’s all-time leading rusher. Priest Holmes is a player you can be proud of. Plus, it’s not like having LJ in the backfield is an improvement over Jamaal Charles, who actually has upside. LJ is terrible this year anyway! Please, Chiefs management, give the fans what they want! Do it for all of us suffering football fans! Keep Larry Johnson off the field! (Incidentally, I just put in a waiver request for Jamaal Charles.)

Miami @ New England
As pesky as the Dolphins are, one of the Cardinal Rules of the NFL is that you don’t bet against a great coach or QB who’s had a bye week to prepare for a sub-par secondary, especially one that’s starting two rookie CBs. The Patriots have a great coach AND a great QB, and a great dislike for the Dolphins, who destroyed them last year and then kept them out of the playoffs. Big game upcoming from Brady. New England by 17, or more if they decide to run up the score.

Washington @ Atlanta
Falcons win easily. Will this be the game that finally gets Jim Zorn fired? 28-7.

Carolina @ New Orleans
Now that the Saints have a huge target on their backs, every game becomes difficult, even the games against Jake Delhomme. Carolina played its most complete game last week and finally got Steve Smith involved in the offense. But come on. You think I’m picking against Drew Brees? Not a chance. Saints by 10.

Detroit @ Seattle
A late afternoon game on the west coast. I don’t think the Lions should even bother showing up. Seriously, they should just forfeit the game and stay in Detroit. This could be even uglier than the game at Lambeau a few weeks ago. I HATE the fact that I’m playing against Hasslebeck in fantasy football. That’s called being double-screwed. Seahawks by 50.

Tennessee @ San Francisco
Vince Young against Alex Smith!! Hide the women and children, this could get ugly!! San Fran wins this one against a truly terrible Tennessee team. Niners by nine.

San Diego @ New York Giants
Okay, so who the heck are we dealing with when it comes to the New York Giants? Super Bowl aspirant, or 8-8 disappointment. They’ve lost 3 games in a row, and three weeks ago they were widely considered the best team in the NFC. First Drew Brees completely owned them, then the Cardinals killed them in the second half, and the Eagles absolutely brutalized them last week. So what now? Are the Chargers catching them at the right time? Or are the Giants actually still good and just the victims of tough scheduling? The game’s in New York and I still don’t think much of the Chargers; the truth is I want San Diego to win because I would love it if Denver missed the playoffs, but I don’t care much for San Diego either. I might as well be realistic and pick the Giants. They are a much better team. NY 24, SD 10.

Dallas @ Philadelphia
Both of these teams are 5-2, which doesn’t even seem possible. Three weeks ago, when the Eagles lost to Oakland and Dallas was barely able to beat the Chiefs in overtime, we all thought the NFC East was a no-contest. Now, with the help of the Giants, these two are tied for the division lead. Which makes this game positively HUGE. I just love the way Philly is playing; the offense has so many weapons, so much speed, and Brian Westbrook should be back on the field, which makes their screen passing game deadly.

Dallas still has a lot of dysfunction right now. Did you see that blurb from Roy Williams, talking about Tony Romo and Miles Austin. “It’s not even funny. Not even close. I’m the #1 receiver, but things are just going number 2’s way. He gets the ball thrown correctly his way. I’m stretching and falling and doing everything. ” WHAT?? Are you freaking serious Roy?? HELLO, your team has won three games in a row. Your teammate, Miles Austin, has five TDs and 500 yards in the last three games, (the only three starts of his beautiful young career!), and he has been the best wide receiver in the ENTIRE NFL over that span. Now defenses have to pay attention to him on every play, and that opens up the field for you. Now your offense can actually throw the ball, as well as run. Now, your team is actually winning games. And you’re COMPLAINING??!? Unbelievable. What an unbelievable selfish thing to say. Is this Roy’s impression of Terrell Owens or what? Geez oh Pete.

On that note, I’m picking Philly. 28-17.

Pittsburgh @ Denver
I’m excited to see Denver lose its second straight game, especially on national TV, on a Monday night. I don’t know why, but I just loathe Denver this year. This will be the only time I cheer for the Steelers all year. Pittsburgh by 14.

Some awful teams are on byes this week: Bills, Browns, Rams, and Raiders. Also the Jets and Vikings.

Enjoy week nine everyone. I would say GO LIONS, but what’s the point this week. They have NO CHANCE against Seattle. None. And Seattle’s not even that good. Ugh.