Week Three Wrap Up

Only two unbeaten teams remain: Pittsburgh, and Kansas City. You might think the Bears are 3-0, but if you watched their first game you know they are actually 2-1.

Five teams are yet to win a game: Carolina, San Francisco, Cleveland, Buffalo, and of course the Lions, who are technically 1-2.

Week 4 we'll see Pittsburgh against Baltimore in Charlie Batch's farewell party; Chicago is on the road against the Giants; and the unbeaten Chiefs enjoy a bye week. Which means that going into week 5, there's a good chance KC will be the last undefeated team. So... the '72 Dolphins can go ahead and celebrate.

Among the winless teams, we'll see Carolina traveling to New Orleans (ouch), Detroit going to Lambeau (double ouch), Buffalo hosting the Jets, Cleveland hosting the Bengals, and the 49ers going to Atlanta. There's a very solid chance that all 5 of those teams will continue to be winless.

So anyhow ... onto my week three picks.

I was 10-6 against the spread, which brings me to 27-21 on the year. Very happy with that.

(There may be viciously untrue rumors about me changing and unchanging picks at the last minute, but those are simply rumors created to destroy my credibility. Either that or I decided to just stick with my original picks and never try any kind of last-minute switcheroo again. It's my blog and I can do whatever I want dangit!)

I whiffed on my Upset of the Week (Jags -Eagles) but nailed my Lock of the Week (Pittsburgh over Tampa) as well as the Lions game, which was just easy money. Whatever the line is for Detroit at Green Bay next week, it won't be high enough. The line could be Green Bay by 28 and I'd take Green Bay. But it'll be more like 13. Easy, easy money.

Two weeks in a row Jacksonville has screwed me. I'm officially off their wagon. This will be David Garrard's last season as a starting quarterback. They signed Trent Edwards yesterday. On to the games ...

Lions - Vikings

So I spent Sunday in Detroit, at Comerica Park, watching the final Tigers home game of the year. It was a microcosm of the season. Cabrera hit a homer, Jackson had a couple hits, but the bottom of the order (Inge, Laird, Sizemore) was worthless. But we won 5-1 thanks to Rick Porcello's best game of the season.

But the season as a whole was a disappointment. We should be in the playoffs, and we're not. It all comes down to one play, one ill-advised slide into home plate. It was July 24, against the Blue Jays, bottom of the 3rd inning. Two men on, Cabrera at the plate, and here's what happened, courtesy of ESPN's play-by-play:

M Cabrera doubled to deep center, A Jackson scored, M Ordonez thrown out at home.


It sounds so innocent. M Ordonez thrown out at home. But in the process of sliding, Magglio shattered his right ankle, forcing him to miss the rest of the season, and consequently ruining the Tigers offense. Teams started pitching around Cabrera and forcing the rest of the offense to beat them. It didn't happen. The Tigers scored more than 6 runs in only 1 of their next 21 games. Magglio's injury effectively ended the season.

I'm barely even excited about next season. Our pitching staff is falling apart and the bottom of the order is beyond bad. But we do have the Rookie of the Year and a guy who will finish either first or second in MVP voting. So those are exciting things.

Anyway, that's my story about why I didn't watch the Lions loss to the Vikings. It wasn't a game worth watching. I saw the highlights, read through the play-by-play, and looked at the box score. Just ugly. I've seen enough Lions games to know exactly how it all went down.

In fact, when the guy behind me at Comerica eagerly announced to his family "Touchdown to Scheffler! The Lions are up 7-0!", my first reaction was a pained chuckle.

'Of course they did. That just makes it worse. I hate them. Stupid Stafford ...'

We muffed a punt, had a couple of very costly penalties that negated turnovers, and allowed an 80 yard play (the touchstone of the Lions defense), and just like that you have a 24-10 win for Minnesota, despite an ugly game from Old Man Favre.

Favre threw two interceptions and would have had 3 if not for a penalty. He is all kinds of washed up. It's very sad. Reminds me of when Karl Malone played for the Lakers, or overweight Shaq on the Cavs. Or that pitiful season when Jerry Rice was on the Seahawks.

Come on Brett. It's time. Go back to Mississippi, hop on your tractor, and wear those Wranglers with pride. You've done well, but it's time. Football will be fine without you.

On the Detroit side of things, I can't believe I'm saying this ... but we gotta get Stafford back soon. Not next week - no sense in bringing him back for a Lambeau loss. But the week after that, against the Rams, Stafford better be out there. It's a should-win game, and a Stafford-Bradford clash will be very fun to watch. Consecutive #1 picks. Franchise quarterbacks. Some devilish part of me wants the Rams to win that game so everyone can see that Bradford is better than Stafford. But of course, I still want Stafford to be good. I really do. I just don't think it'll EVER happen.

But Shaun Hill, against the Vikings, was just brutal. He's in way over his head. The running game just isn't there to support him. No offense to Jahvid Best, but his first two games were a fluke. When I saw he was projected to get 18 fantasy points week 3 against the Vikings, I couldn't help but laugh out loud. Come on, you really think he's going to score on another 75 yard screen pass? I would have projected about 6 points. He got 3. Nothing against Best. He's a great talent. But this is still the Lions.

Calvin Johnson needs to start catching more than 6 passes a game. He's underperforming. Double team or whatever, we built the offense around him and he's just not producing. It's frustrating. I would say Burleson's injury made a difference, but Burleson has yet to do anything this season. It's just a bad offense with a bad coaching staff. Calvin will be gone soon, and I'm sure he'll set the league on fire somewhere in the AFC. The season is going down the drain in a hurry. Jim Schwartz is 2-17 as a head coach, soon to be 2-18. That will be the worst 20 game start in Lions coaching history. Geez.

I don't even want to talk about the Packers-Lions game when it comes time to make the week 4 picks. All I'll say is, whatever the line is, I'll take the Packers. And I'll be watching the game in a dark, damp room with a wet towel on my forehead and one of those stress-relieving squishy pillows in my hand. And most likely, I'll be laying naked on a cold concrete floor. Or at least that's what it will feel like.

Ugh. On to the rest of week 3.

Titans-Giants

I almost made this my Upset of the Week, and should have. Tennessee whooped them 29-10. At least that's what the final score indicates.

But if you just look at the box score, this game will confuse you. New York outgained the Titans by over 200 yards. Vince Young had just 10 completions. The Giants had more first downs, more time of possession, and gained an average of 6.7 yards per play compared with 4.7 for Tennessee.

But 3 turnovers and 11 penalties were the only numbers that mattered. As well as 2 missed field goals.

On one occassion Eli Manning threw a 43 yard pass from his own goal line, but a chop block penalty erased the gain and resulted in a Tennessee safety. On the Giants next possession, they marched 89 yards down to the Titans 4 yard line, where Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled.

New York outplayed, outgained and outmuscled the Titans. But Tennessee outcoached them and outsmarted them.

I'm not worried about either of these teams moving forward. They both look at least 8-8ish, with the possibility of catching fire and making a playoff run.

Panthers - Bengals

Losing two straight home games is a difficult task, even for a team like the Lions or Rams. But Carolina just did it against two straight below-average teams. Their season is officially in the tank.

Carson Palmer had his third straight downright awful game (his QB rating is 71.3 so far, worse than his rookie season), but Jimmy Claussen was equally bad. Cincy's superior defense won them the game, along with 2 TDs from Cedric Benson.

Neither QB had a rating of more than 53 in this game. Yuck. I can't wait to check this one out on ESPN Classic.

Steelers - Bucs

This was my Lock of the Week and it couldn't have been an easier call. You've got one of the best teams in the NFL against one of the worst. And a line of 2.5. Some things are just too easy.

There's no question that Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL, or any question that Polamalu is the best defensive player.

Here's the stat of the game: 25% of Charlie Batch's completions went for touchdowns.

Patriots - Bills

The Pats offense scored 38 points, enough to win comfortably. The offense was good. Brady, Moss, Welker all chipped in, but they had help. Both rookie tight ends caught 6 passes apiece and the running game surpassed 200 yards! This might actually be the best offense in the NFL.

But the Pats defense ... well they allowed 375 total yards of offense to Ryan Fitzpatrick. And that just sucks. Their defense could be their Achilles heel this season. Either that, or maybe they just weren't interested in playing Buffalo. We'll find out soon enough.

Ravens - Browns

Despite missing the game against the spread, I made a great call last week when I said:

"Anquan Boldin was matched up (week 1) against Revis and then Leon Hall (week 2), both elite cover corners. This week … he gets Sheldon Brown."

And against Brown and the Browns, all Boldin did was catch 8 passes for 142 yards and 3 scores. All that talk about Flacco being overrated was clearly overblown.

Interesting thing is that Cleveland actually had a chance to tie this game up at the end. It was 3rd and 4 with 2 minutes remaining. Baltimore had the ball on their own 37, was going to run up the gut, then punt and the Cleveland offense would have had about 1:20 to go 80 yards. Not likely, but possible. Instead, the Browns defense jumped offsides on 3rd and 4 and Baltimore ended the game on kneel downs.

Eric Mangini's firing is long overdue.

Chiefs - 49ers

For Peter's sake, what is going on. How are the 49ers 0-3? How are the Chiefs 3-0? I just don't get it.

But give credit to the Chiefs defense. They held San Fran to just 4 first downs in the first half, and OLB Tamba Hali (quietly making a case for Defensive MVP) had 3 sacks. Actually, I'm not sure if the credit should go to the Chiefs defense, or if Alex Smith is just really bad. We will find out sooner or later.

KC gets a bye, but then they go to Indy. So they're 3-1. Then they go to Houston. So they're 3-2. But after that, their next 7 games are extremely winnable. So they could be in the neighborhood of 8-4 by week 13. San Diego (1-2), on the other hand, faces a tougher schedule and will be lucky to go 5-3 in their next 8 games. They might still be trailing KC as late as 12 games into the season, setting up a potentially huge game when the Bolts host the Chiefs on December 12. Hmm...

In other news, San Francisco fired their offensive coordinator just 3 games into the season. San Fran ranks 20th in total offense and 31st in points scored. They promoted the quarterbacks coach to OC. The NFC West is still their division to lose, even if they go 7-9.

Cowboys - Texans

I thought this game would be close. But, I also thought Houston's secondary was good. So clearly I was misinformed. They allowed Roy Williams (yes, Roy Williams, who shouldn't even be on the field) to catch 5 balls for 117 yards and 2 TDs. After the game, Williams instructed Dez Bryant to carry his shoulder pads, and they had this exchange:

Williams: "Hey Rook, carry 'dem pads, I'm off the heezy, I done score twice!
Bryant: "I ain't carryin' yo pads, you ugly ass bald mofo"
Romo (on the phone with Miley Cyrus): "Guys! shutup, I can't hear my girlfriend!"


The story of this game was really Houston's left tackle, Duane Brown, who missed the game due to a substance-abuse suspension. DeMarcus Ware took full advantage, racking up 3 sacks and forcing Schaub to hurry his passes and not make his reads. Ware proved why he's the best pass-rusher in the NFL, and was the biggest reason why Dallas is not 0-3.

Houston will be without Brown's services for 3 more games. In those games they face Richard Seymour, Justin Tuck, and Tamba Hali. No one as good as Ware, but 3 pretty good pass rushers. Fantasy owners who have Schaub might want to panic just a little bit. Or look into some free agents. Just a suggestion.

Falcons - Saints

Atlanta played exactly the way you should play against New Orleans - they ran the ball 44 times. They kept Brees on the sidelines. They dominated time of possession by over 18 minutes. And they even forgoed (is that the past tense of forego? or is it forewent?) two field goals in order to convert fourth and short.

Mike Smith is making a case for Coach of the Year. That's just smart coaching. You need touchdowns, not field goals, to beat Drew Brees. Teams should be going for 4th and 1 every time against New Orleans. Same for Indy, New England and the Packers.

Drew Brees played this game as well as he could. 30 completions on 38 attempts, for 365 yards and 3 scores. Lance Moore played the role of Reggie Bush just fine. The Saints offense was a machine. But a costly fumble by Chris Ivory on 4th and 1 essentially kept the Falcons in the game, and allowed them to force overtime. And that's where we find this week's ....

Goat of the Week!

This is a new weekly segment where I disgrace and disdain someone for making a detrimental mistake and causing his team to lose. This week's Goat of the Week is none other than Saints kicker Garrett Hartley, the Super Bowl hero.

Hartley wins the award for missing a 29 yard field goal - a total chip shot - in overtime which effectively gave Atlanta the win and now both teams are tied at 2-1. If Hartley makes a routine kick, something he's paid $24,375 per game to be able to do, the Saints are undefeated and have a full two-game lead over their primary division foe. Instead, the teams are tied and Atlanta has confidence. This missed field goal might be the worst play of the season yet, for anyone.

Here's what happened: in OT, Atlanta received the ball and quickly went 3 and out. An incomplete pass, a 3 yard run, and a sack. New Orleans defense was pumped. The crowd was pumped. Drew Brees was pumped. The Saints took over at their 32, and Brees went 4-4 on the drive for 56 quick yards. On 1st and 10, from the Atlanta ELEVEN YARD LINE, Hartley was sent out to end the game on a routine, easy, indoor-stadium field goal with no wind, no weather, and no oppositional noise. Absolutely perfect, serene conditions. And he wasn't even close.

It would have been smarter for New Orleans to just run the ball a few times, or let Brees keep the momentum going and throw a TD pass. A field goal is supposed to be the safer option. And thus Hartley is the Goat of the Week.

Rams - Redskins

Dangit, I knew I should have picked St. Louis! Arggh!

Amazingly, Washington has now lost to the worst team in the league two years in a row. Last season, they lost to 0-16 Detroit, giving #1 overall pick Matthew Stafford his first NFL win in week 3.

This year, they lost to previously 1-15 St. Louis, giving #1 overall pick Sam Bradford his first NFL win in week 3.

That's eerie.

This game was all about Steven Jackson, and the Rams running game, or maybe the faultiness of the Redskins defense. Jackson ran for 58 yards on 10 carries, then got hurt and Kenneth Darby ran for 49 yards on 14 carries. The Rams won time of possession by 10 minutes. I wonder if having an All Pro defensive tackle would help Washington stop the run?

In a completely unrelated story, Albert Haynesworth missed this game with an "ankle" injury.

Eagles - Jaguars

You know what. I'm sick of hearing about Vick, and sick of picking the Jaguars and looking stupid. So I have nothing to say. Except that next week's Eagles-Redskins game is going to be awesome.

Colts - Broncos

Predictably Peyton Manning destroyed a below average defense. Here are his stats: 27-43, 325 yards, 3 TDs, no picks. And here's the best part: his QB rating, 109.2, was the LOWEST he's had yet this season. Unbelievable. His worst game of the season is 325 yards and 3 TDs.

I give Denver a lot of credit for keeping this game somewhat competitive. In the wake of the tragic suicide of receiver Kenny McKinley, they could have just been drained and given no effort. But they gained more than 500 yards of offense, highlighted by receivers Lloyd and Gaffney combining for more than 300.

The Broncos employed the same strategy as Atlanta did against New Orleans - in the red zone, facing fourth and short, they eschewed the field goal and went for it. The difference was, they were unsuccessful.

On one occassion in the second quarter, on 4th and goal from the 1, Laurence Maroney got the carry and the call on the field was a touchdown. But it was reviewed, overturned, and a turnover on downs. Later, on a 4th and 3 and trailing by just 7, Kyle Orton's pass was incomplete on the Indy 12 yard line. Peyton took over, went 88 yards in 4 minutes, and the game was basically over.

Bottom line: Indy's defense came through on big plays and kept the game from being too close. But either way, Manning was going to find a way to win.

Oh, one last thing. I watched about 40% of this game and while Peyton Manning obviously stood out, the second best player in the game was Denver LT Ryan Clady. He's back. And better than ever. He completely eliminated Dwight Freeney from the contest.

Cardinals - Raiders

Do I really have to say anything. What an ugly fest.

Sebastian Janikowski finished a close second to Hartley for Goat of the Week honors. He missed three field goals in this game (from 41, 58 and 32 yards), including a 32 yarder as time expired that would have given Oakland the road win. The 58 yard miss is completely excusable. But how can you miss a 41 yarder and a 32 yarder in the same game?!

Here's the crazy thing. I picked up Janikowski in the A league for a one-week start. I loved his matchup. And he made me look brilliant with 13 fantasy points, tied for the most among kickers. But imagine if he had nailed the two gimmies and had 19 points. OR, if he made all 3 attempts and scored an insane 24 fantasy points. That would have been awesome.

Anyway, there's not much to take away from this game. Derek Anderson was very bad (12-26 for 122 yards, sounds like a Lions quarterback to me) and Larry Fitzgerald was completely shut down by Nnamdi Asomugha (2 catches, 26 yards - didn't I predict that?). Beanie Wells finally played and looked healthy; hopefully he'll finally make a difference for me.

Bruce Gradkowski is not an incredible quarterback by any means, but somehow he continues to keep Oakland competitive. They would have won this game if Janikowski had done his job (for which he is paid $125,097 per game - the highest paid kicker in NFL history). Bruce should be considered a force to reckon with when it comes to covering spreads. I won't be picking against Oakland (against the spread) as long as he's the quarterback.

Arizona is just bad, bad, bad. They might be the worst 2-1 team in the NFL, and that's saying something.

Seahawks - Chargers

This was brutal. San Diego played 5 million times better than Seattle. Phillip Rivers threw for a Chargers record 455 yards, with 109 to Gates and 97 to Floyd. Both guys scored; both guys were on my fantasy team. Woot woot!

But San Diego lost the same way they always lose on the road: fumbles and special teams. It was a clone of the week 1 game in Kansas City. Giving up a kick return TD (they actually gave up two to Leon Washington). Coughing up a fumble in the red zone (Mike Tolbert, again).

This is one of the very few times where one team DOUBLES the other team in passing yards and yet loses. Despite the loss, I'm actually more impressed with San Diego than I thought I would be to this point. They are proving that they really don't need Vincent Jackson. Now if they would just fire their special teams coach and stop fumbling in the red zone, they'd be well on their way to 10-6.

Jets - Dolphins

Breaking news: the New York Jets have surpassed Denver and Pittsburgh as my least favorite NFL team for the 2010 season. I still hate Steelers fans; I still hate Denver's decision making, but the whole suicide thing makes it hard to cheer against them. But Rex Ryan is just intolerable. He's just the worst. The worst figure in the NFL right now. Everything about him - the way he talks, walks, looks, coaches, and especially the way he engages in trash talk with opposing players. I just think he's a nasty guy and an easy guy to cheer against. Wait until you've done something before you start running your mouth.

Whatever. The Jets just beat the Pats and Fins in back to back weeks and unfortunately, they're really good. Sanchez is playing out of his mind all of a sudden, and he's really the only reason why New York isn't 0-3.

Without Revis, Brandon Marshall caught 10 balls for 166 yards. The Jets obviously need Revis to stay competitive. You can't five up 363 passing yards to Chad Henne and call yourself the league's best defense.

From here on out, I'll root against the Jets above any other team.

Packers - Bears

Didn't watch it, don't care that the Bears won, sick of hearing about how the Bears are a top 5 team and Jay Cutler is a top 5 quarterback, not even going to waste my time pointing out how obvious it is that the Bears suck, Cutler sucks, Martz sucks, Lovie Smith sucks, and the Bears lost to the Lions week 1 and would have lost to the Packers if not for 17 penalties and questionable officiating. They may be 3-0 in the standings, but they are not a playoff team. You can write that down as a guarantee. No possible chance. The Packers, on the other hand, are going to win at least 10 games, and likely more.

This game has spawned a classic ESPN overreaction. I've seen the Bears as high as 2nd on people's power rankings. It makes me want to gag. How can a team with a D- secondary , a D+ offensive line, a C- quarterback, D+ receivers, and a C- coach be ranked above the Colts and Saints? It's absurd. The Bears suck. Bah!

Fantasy Wrap Up

For the second straight week, I score 130+ in the A league behind Peyton Manning's brilliance.

I lost in the B league; my Ravens defense really let me down, as did Andre Johnson's injury.

In the other 10 leagues, I went 8-2. It probably helps that I have Michael Vick in about 6 of those leagues.

For the second straight week, Morgan Massacre eclipsed 200 points. I also scored 200 in Yahoo league 3, where the Morgan Machine was led by Flacco & Boldin, plus Michael Turner, Dustin Keller, and that Steelers defense.

But the game of the week was Yahoo league 5, where I beat Sketchy Metal 353-347.

That league allows big bonus for yardage (20 point bonus if your QB throws 300 yards, 15 point bonus if your RB or WR goes over 100, plus it's a PPR league) so I was led by three receivers who combined for 118 points (Boldin, Wallace, Santana Moss) and a tight end who had 27 points (Gates) plus Michael Turner (28) and Matt Ryan (45). Anytime you score 353 points, you know you're in an awesome fantasy league.

In the A league (the money league) I'm now 2-1 and leading all teams in scoring. And I have a great week 4 matchup - my foe has Romo, Bryant, and Harvin all on byes.

Stay tuned for week 4 picks, hopefully they'll be up tomorrow.

Go Lions!

Thoughts on Vick and Kolb

The story of the day is from Philadelphia, where Eagles Coach Andy Reid has announced that Michael Vick, not Kevin Kolb, will be the starting quarterback henceforth, and the decision has nothing to do with Kolb's injuries.


Said Reid, "You're talking about Michael Vick as one the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now."


"He did an exceptional job and my job is to evaluate the players." "It's my obligation to make the proper decision."

Okay. So here's my response to that statement. Plain and simple: Michael Vick did play an exceptional game, but it's important to remember that he played against the exceptionally bad Detroit Lions defense.

Detroit has ranked dead last in total defense two seasons in a row, and actually got WORSE this year in the secondary. Not to mention two of our best starters, Levy and Avril, missed the game with injuries. Throwing two TDs against the Lions defense is like successfully taking out the trash. Not an overly difficult task.

Vick posted a 108 QB rating against the Lions, with 2 touchdowns, 284 yards, and a 61% completion percentage. That's great.


But take a look at what other quarterbacks were able to do against Detroit's defense in 2009:

• Week 1 - Drew Brees QB rating, 137
• Week 2 - Brett Favre, 115
• Week 3 - Jason Campbell, 97.6
• Week 4 - Jay Cutler, 100.4
• Week 5 - Ben Ruthlessraper, 123.9
• Week 6 - Aaron Rodgers, 113.7
• Week 10 - Favre, 120.5
• Week 11 - Brady Quinn, 133.1
• Week 12 - Rodgers, 124.7
• Week 14 - Joe Flacco, 120.8
• Week 16 - Alex Smith, 97.5
• Week 17 - Cutler, 122

In 12 of our 16 games, we allowed a QB rating of higher than 97. Or, put it this way: the average QB rating against the Lions was 107, and that included quarterbacks such as Campbell, Quinn, Marc Bulger, and Jay Cutler twice.

Which means that last season, the best quarterback in the NFL was Drew Brees with a 109.6 rating, and the second best QB was 'whoever played the Lions.'

So when Mike Vick puts together a QB rating of 108 against the Lions, essentially, he's played an average game against a hideous defense. He did the same thing that Brady Freaking Quinn did against the same defense.


And so, when Andy Reid proclaims Vick "one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League" based solely on a single game against the anemic Lions defense, he's made a crucial misjudgment.

I think this is a knee-jerk reaction and it's going to be detrimental to the post-McNabb era in Philadelphia. Kevin Kolb should be the franchise quarterback there and there should be no argument. Vick is a solid quarterback and does some things that no other quarterback can do. But Kolb is the guy who can control the offense, control the tempo, and win the most games. Kolb will limit mistakes, will provide exceedingly better leadership, and will be a likeable face of the franchise for years to come.

Michael Vick intentionally murdered dogs. He electrocuted them and hung them from trees. Not only that, but his past has been tied to illegal drugs, airport theft, gang activity, steroids, as well as one incident when he was sued for giving a woman genital herpes. Each time, the settlement was made out of court.

Vick has good lawyers and lots of money. He thought he could stay out of trouble forever. He thought he could do whatever he wanted. He thought he could fund an illegal and disgusting dog-fighting operation in his own backyard and never get caught. And when he did get caught, he thought he could simply lie about it and let his lawyers do the rest. It worked with the drugs and the steroids and the herpes.



But not this time you sick bastard. You got caught and your ass got sent to jail where it belongs. Vick should have served a 10-15 year sentence for his role as founder and funder of the dog-fighting operation, but instead got out in 18 months. All it takes is money and you can screw the U.S. justice system like a cheap prostitute. It's so obscene. People like Michael Vick make me humiliated to be an American.

But alas, Vick got released and went right back into his old habits - lying, cheating, doing whatever the hell he wants, and letting his lawyers and PR people keep him out of trouble. Less than a year after his release, Vick was in a nightclub, with guns and homeys and "alleged" shootings. Back in legal trouble. But of course, "he was already gone when the shooting took place." Right. I'm sure he had nothing to do with it.

His life is like one of those mobster movies where the bad guy always gets away with thier bad-guy activities, because they have tons of money and icky lawyers. They pay off cops. They pay off reporters. They do whatever they gotta do to stay out of trouble. That's the story of Vick's life (and many other professional athletes, I'm afraid).

And the worst part of all is the now sparkling clean image that Vick's PR folks have created. During the Lions-Eagles game on Sunday, the commentators made at least 5 mentions to Vick's efforts in community service. The first one or two times it was egregious and an insult to my intelligence, but then they continued to shove this horseshit down my throat every 10 or 20 minutes.

"Vick eludes the pass rush ... he's looking downfield ... finds Jackson on the seam and it's another Eagles first down! What a throw by this young man who has really turned his life around!"

"You're right Bill, you know, I talked with Andy Reid last night, and not only has Mike been a model citizen in the locker room and on the practice field, but he's been involved in countless community service efforts throughout the city of Philadelphia. He's really a great young man who just happens to have an unfortunate past."

"Exactly. You can't say enough about the character and integrity of this dog-murdering psychopath. You know, if my 30 year old son had tortured dogs as a means of recreation and lied about it after being caught, he'd be in a mental hospital. But not Mike Vick. He's a true hero to kids out there who want to learn a lesson about community service!"

Okay, so maybe I'm getting way off on a Vick-hating tangent here. But I had a point. And it was something like this: Michael Vick might be a good quarterback, but he's a terrible human being. Really a true scumbag and one of the most despicable human beings in the world. And this is the point ...


Success at the quarterback position rarely coincides with leading a repulsive lifestyle.


Guys like Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, John Elway, Joe Montana ... they all have something in common. They're good human beings. Happily married. Class acts. The kinds of leaders that teammates want to follow. Smart, dedicated, honest, loyal. They may be ruthless and calculating on the field, but none of them are killing dogs in their backyard.

Kevin Kolb is that kind of guy. He's a married man with two young daughters who could have played college ball at Texas or Oklahoma, but instead went to the University of Houston so he could play for his high school coach. Kolb enjoys boar-hunting in New Jersey and is an unashamed Christian.

Check out this interview with Kolb that he did with a local Houston student ministry. He's the classiest quarterback you can imagine. He talks about putting things in perspective, resisting peer pressure, marrying his high-school sweetheart, and the importance of his faith. It's an unbelievable interview with a genuinely good person.

These two quarterbacks could not possibly be any more different.

How can Andy Reid possibly choose Vick as his starter. He truly has no decency. I lost a lot of respect for Reid with this decision. I know it's his job to win football games and that's it, but come on. Have some decency. Draw the line somewhere.


Here's the bottom line: If the Eagles want to keep the dog-killing psychopath at quarterback and keep Kolb on the bench, that's just fine. The Lions will gladly take Kolb off your hands.

Week Three Picks

Week Three Picks

Lions @ Vikings
Predicted Line: Vikings by 12
Actual Line: Vikings by 10.5

Pick: Vikings

This will be a lot like the Eagles game from week 2, where the Detroit defense is hapless and gives up 30+ points in a hurry. But unlike last week, they won’t have the home crowd behind them, and they won’t cover the spread with an unlikely comeback.

Matchups to love if you’re a Vikings fan:

-Jared Allen against Jeff Backus.

-Adrian Peterson against Detroit’s sad excuse for a linebacking corps.

-Brett Favre and the fast receivers against Detroit’s god-awful secondary who can’t cover anybody.

Throw in the fact that this is a desperate must-win game for Minnesota and you have the makings of a massacre. Nothing else to say about this one …

49ers @ Chiefs
Predicted Line: 49ers by 1.5
Actual Line: 49ers by 1.5

Pick: 49ers.

Here’s the question: can you imagine a scenario in which Kansas City, led by Matt Cassel and a defense that ranked 30th overall last season, will begin the season 3-0, while San Francisco, a team with Frank Gore and Patrick Willis, would be 0-3?

I just don’t think so. San Fran has a better quarterback, a better coach, a better running game, and a better defense. True, Alex Smith has been brutal to start the season (passer rating of 64.9) but Matt Cassel has been even worse (55.8). And Smith has infinitely more weapons to work with.

KC is a Home Dog. But sometimes you can’t outsmart your own common sense. Gotta go with San Fran in a must win.

Bills @ Patriots
Predicted Line: Pats by 14
Actual Line: Pats by 13

Pick: Bills

New England doesn’t look like the run-up-the-score bullies from 2007, and might actually be content to run the ball and run the clock once they’re up early. Why risk an injury?

Buffalo’s obviously not going to win this game (Pats have won 18 of the past 19 meetings), but something about the 13 point line makes me nervous. I’ll say Pats win by 10. Maybe Lee Evans will have a deep pass to keep it close.

Falcons @ Saints
Predicted Line: Saints by 7.5
Actual Line: Saints by 6

Pick: Falcons

Granted, it’s tough to play in the Superdome and New Orleans is the better team. But remember during the offseason how I talked about the declining Saints’ defense and how that could ultimately hurt them? Well, they haven’t played a good quarterback yet this season (sorry, Brett Favre) and now they get the up-and-coming Matt Ryan fresh off a 41 point outburst.

I think Brees and Ryan will have quite the shootout and the Saints will come out on top, but I like Atlanta’s chances to keep it close and lose by a field goal.

Titans @ Giants
Predicted Line: Giants by 1
Actual Line: Giants by 3

Pick: Titans

I’m tempted to make this the Upset of the Week, but I don’t have enough confidence in Vince Young.

Chris Johnson is going to have a monster bounce-back week against a defense that’s a little shell-shocked. He should easily eclipse 100 yards and get the streak rolling again.

To date, the Titans actually lead the NFL in defense (granted, one of their games was against Oakland), and they lead the AFC with 8 sacks. New York’s offensive line looked horrendous on Sunday night. This could be another miserable game for Eli Manning.

Steelers @ Buccaneers
Predicted Line: Pittsburgh by 4.5
Actual Line: Pittsburgh by 2.5

Pick: Pittsburgh

90% of the action in Vegas is on the Steelers, and no duh. What were they thinking with this line? It should be more like 8. I was intentionally guessing low with 4.5. How can Pittsburgh not beat Tampa by at least a field goal? Ridiculous.

This is a no-brainer for my Lock of the Week.

I don’t care who Pittsburgh’s quarterback is. The defense will hold Tampa to less than 200 yards of offense. This is easy money. I wish I lived near a casino.

Bengals @ Panthers
Predicted Line: Cincinnati by 2
Actual Line: Cincinnati by 3.5

Pick: Carolina

Okay Panthers, you can’t lose two in a row at home, right? Right??

I mean, this is a must-win if you want to stay in the playoff race. You’ve got two 1,000-yard rushers and a great offensive line and one of the league’s best downfield receivers. How can you go 0-3?

Wait … Jimmy Claussen is starting? Oh geez.

Browns @ Ravens
Predicted Line: Baltimore by 9
Actual Line: Baltimore by 10.5

Pick: Baltimore

Baltimore is going to have to score more than 10 points to cover by 10.5, and so far this season they’ve yet to do so. Their defense has been outstanding, but the offense is not doing a dang thing.

This is the week they’ll turn it on and look like true Super Bowl contenders.

The first two matchups were brutal: at New York Jets, then at Cincinnati. Anquan Boldin was matched up against Revis and then Leon Hall, both elite cover corners. This week … he gets Sheldon Brown.

Cleveland, at 0-2, has nothing to play for. They know their season is over. They’re in a brutal division and started 0-2 against Tampa and KC. Their quarterback is hurt. Fans are already looking ahead to the draft. Now they’re going on the road to face a team that has them outmatched at every position except kick returner.

This WILL be a blowout. I’m calling it my Lock of the Week Part 2.

Cowboys @ Texans
Predicted Line: Houston by 3.5
Actual Line: Houston by 3

Pick: Geez, I don’t know. This is the Stupid Game of the Week, where no matter what I pick, the opposite will happen. I guess I’ll take Dallas since I want Houston to win.

This is a crucial must-win for the Cowboys, but also for the Texans to stay atop the Colts and keep pushing towards the playoffs. Huge game for both teams. Really.

Both teams are immensely talented. Neither team will be able to stop the other’s passing attack. Neither team has the offensive line to block elite pass rushers (Mario Williams on Houston, DeMarcus Ware on Dallas). Both teams can run the ball if they want.

Houston has the obvious coaching advantage. And the home-field advantage. But I think Dallas is the pick because of sheer desperation.

Redskins @ Rams
Predicted Line: Washington by 5
Actual Line: Washington by 3.5

Pick: Washington

Once again I was very tempted to make this the Upset of the Week, but the line is too low and I don’t hate Washington that much. I do think Sam Bradford has played about as well as he could considering his situation, but this is not a good matchup.

But wait … could this be a trap game for the Redskins, who have Philly, Green Bay, and Indy the next 3 weeks? Donovan might get caught thinking ahead to the biggest game of his life, AT Philadelphia, next week.

St. Louis is still in the playoff picture, as strange as that sounds. The NFC West is perhaps the worst division in the history of sports, especially now that frontrunner San Fran is 0-2. Doesn’t it seem like once every season Steven Jackson takes over and single-handedly wins it for the Rams? Couldn’t this be the week against the Haynesworth-less Skins?

Wait, I’m talking myself into the Rams again. The pick has to be Washington with a line this low. Common sense.

Eagles @ Jaguars
Predicted Line: Philly by 2.5
Actual Line: Philly by 3.5

Pick: Jacksonville

Looks like Kevin Kolb will be the quarterback for Philly, which I think is smart. Especially for this game. Jacksonville has the personnel to get after Vick and keep him from scrambling (Kampman, Morrison, Harvey). The strength of this team is the front 7 on defense. Not the secondary. Which means Kolb might have a solid game in his return. I certainly think that Kolb is a better quarterback than Vick. Then again, I also think Vick should be in a mental hospital for 5-10 years, because people who torture animals for fun clearly have issues. Isn’t that the number one indicator of serial killers?

So far this season, Mo-Jo Drew has been mostly ineffective and doesn’t even have the excuse that he played against great defenses. It’s been turnovers and sacks that have killed Jacksonville’s offense. But as we saw on Sunday, Philly doesn’t have much of a defense, as they let Jahvid Best rip them to shreds.

I like Jacksonville for a few reasons. Firstly, they’re underdogs at home. Secondly, Philly just isn’t very good. And thirdly, the Jags know they’ve got Indy next week so it’s vitally important to get a win in this game. Since 2004, Jacksonville is 9-2 in games prior to games against the Colts.

Jags over Philly, straight-up. That’s my Upset of the Week.

Colts @ Broncos
Predicted Line: Indy by 8.5
Actual Line: Indy by 6

Pick: Colts.

Don’t overthink it. Peyton Manning against Kyle Orton. Easy.

Raiders @ Cardinals
Predicted Line: Cards by 5
Actual Line: Cards by 4

Pick: Oakland

Remarkably, one of these teams will be 2-1.

I think it’ll be Oakland for one primary reason: the matchup between Nnamdi Asomugha and Larry Fitzgerald.

Fitz is by far Arizona’s best player, and Asomugha will most likely eliminate him from the game. Take Fitz out of the offense and Arizona just won’t move the ball. Oakland probably won’t do much either offensively, but after giving up 41 points last week this Arizona defense sure looks vulnerable.

Wait, did I just pick Bruce Gradkowski to cover a 4 point spread on the road? Ugh…

Chargers @ Seahawks
Predicted Line: San Diego by 4.5
Actual Line: San Diego by 5.5

Pick: Seattle

Yeah, I know, stupid pick. San Diego has an potent passing offense and Seattle has a crap secondary. This should be an easy blowout.

But come on. Seattle’s a Home Dog by 6 points? Last time they were at home they shellacked San Francisco. And last time San Diego was on the road, they lost to Kansas City. I do think the Chargers will win, most likely, but 5.5 seems a little high. Especially considering the Bolts’ lack of a running game, the injury to Ryan Matthews, and the two holdouts at LT and WR which continue to plague the offense.

Jets @ Dolphins
Predicted Line: Miami by 2
Actual Line: Miami by 2

Pick: NY Jets

Revis is out. Jenkins is out. The highly touted Jets defense suddenly doesn’t look so unbeatable. Brandon Marshall should have quite a day and the Fins should be able to run the ball. So why pick the Jets?

Because I hate them, and if I pick against them, they’ll win, and it’ll be a double loss for me. Plus, Mark Sanchez looked great last week and Miami is due for a loss.

Packers @ Bears
Predicted Line: Green Bay by 5
Actual Line: Green Bay by 3

Pick: Green Bay

I was prepared to take Green Bay if the line was as high as 12.

It’s simple: Chicago’s secondary stinks, and Aaron Rodgers is fantastically good.

On the other side, Chicago’s offensive line stinks, and the Packers defensive line is very, very good. This will be a blowout and get the “Fire Lovie Smith” talk back on track. Four INTs for Cutler. Four TDs for Rodgers.

--

Before I get to the fantasy stuff, did you notice that there were a whopping 8 home underdogs this week? Last week there were only five - and four of those five beat the spread. The only one who didn't? Washington, in OT. So that means of these eight home dogs - KC, BUF, TB, CAR, STL, JAX, DEN, SEA and CHI - at least six will cover and three will win outright.

Fantasy Picks – Studs and Duds

Quarterbacks:

STUDS -
Matt Ryan (6) and Kyle Orton (8) will be trying to keep pace with the high-scoring Saints and Colts.
Joe Flacco (2) and Brett Favre (7) will take advantage of easy matchups.

DUDS -
Jay Cutler is the only QB that will be starting in most leagues and will put up crap numbers.

Running Backs:

STUDS -
Big games for Ray Rice (4) and obviously Adrian Peterson (1), as well as Jones-Drew (6) and Mendenhall (7). Justin Forsett (14) is the sleeper this week.

DUDS -
Stay away from last week's darlings Jahvid Best and LeSean McCoy. Neither is doing anything this week.

Wide Receivers:

STUDS -
Bernard Berrian (19) and Percy Harvin (13) against the Lions. Huge game for Anquan Boldin (3). Keep rolling with Santana Moss (15). And I like Mike Sims-Walker (12) this week too.

DUDS -
Definitely Larry Fitzgerald. I'd bench him no matter who is on your bench. Also consider sitting your Bears and your Steve Smiths. And I wouldn't be playing Crabtree until he proves he's the #1 receiver in San Fran.

Tight Ends:

STUDS -
Shiancoe (4) is a must play. I'd start Todd Heap (7) too.

DUDS -
Jason Witten. I'd actually drop him and get someone else. Hurry and get Hernandez from New England before he's gone.

Defenses:

STUDS -
Vikings, Ravens and Steelers are no-brainers. Also start the Patriots and maybe the Cardinals if you feel lucky.

DUDS -
I'd leave New Orleans on the bench, and the Giants, and San Fran, and probably the Jets unless Revis is playing.

That's it ... GOOOOO LIONS.

Week Two Wrap Up

8 teams are undefeated: Miami, Pittsburgh, Houston, KC, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Chicago and New Orleans.

And 8 teams are winless: Buffalo, Cleveland, Dallas, Minnesota, Detroit, Carolina, St. Louis, and San Francisco.

Here are some observations from week two.

First, my picks.

I was 8-8 against the spread, but it was a weird week.

I nailed my Upset of the Week (Pitt over Tenn) and my Lock of the Week (GB over Buf +13) and also picked the Rams-Raiders, Jets-Pats, and Fins-Vikes to perfection.

But I couldn’t have been more wrong about the Cardinals-Falcons game, or the Panthers-Bucs game, or the Bears-Cowboys. And I was WAY off on my Jags-over-Chargers pick.

I technically picked the Lions-Eagles game correctly, but the Philly defense got lazy and let Detroit climb back and cover the spread. More on the Lions game in a second.

Overall, I’m 17-15 against the spread through two weeks. I’m happy to be above .500. It’s been a ridiculous start to the season. Did I mention that Tampa Bay is undefeated while Dallas and Minnesota are winless?!?

Lions-Eagles

Okay, let’s break down the Lions’ latest lesson in creative losing. This week was called the “Go Up 17-7, Then Give Up 28 Consecutive Points, Then Come Back To Within 3, Recover An Onside Kick, And Lose A Heart-Breaker to a Quarterback Who Just Spent 2 Years in Prison and is Coached By Marty Mornhinweg.”

Apparently, Michael Vick (or just ‘Mike’ as the announcers affectionately called him) likes to torture Lions as well as dogs. He was downright excellent in this game. Unsackable. Uncontainable. Freaking electric.

And he actually used his arm more than his legs. He evaded the pass rush with such ease and tormented the Detroit secondary by making them cover receivers for about 8 seconds on every play, instead of the 3 seconds they’re used to. When a quarterback has 7 or 8 seconds to run around before he throws the ball, the secondary is screwed. Especially a secondary as bad as Detroit’s.

However, let’s give credit where credit is due. The Detroit defensive line played as good as they could have. They outplayed Philly’s offensive line, knocked Jason Peters out of the game twice, sacked Vick five times, and forced two fumbles (both recovered by Philly). Ndamukong Suh led the way with 8 tackles, including a vicious sack where he threw Vick down by the neck (without drawing a flag) and then stepped on his chest and yelled “I love puppies you mother-f**ker!!!”

But despite the best efforts of Suh, VandenBosch and Turk McBride, the Lions’ linebackers just weren’t good enough to contain Vick. And he made them pay. We really could have benefited from having DeAndre Levy in this game. Vick had 21 completions to 8 different Eagles and ran the ball 7 times for 37 yards. Detroit surrendered 400 yards of offense once again and now ranks 30th in total defense; the only teams behind us are Washington and Houston, who each gave up 400+ passing yards against one another in an overtime shootout.

When Detroit was on offense, it was all about Jahvid ‘Rookie of the Year’ Best. He was just way too good. At one point Crazy Keith called me and said “You sure that isn’t Chris Johnson wearing a Lions jersey?” For realz. The guy has insane speed, shifty little moves, and something no Lions’ back has had in 13 years – vision. He follows blockers with patience, he waits for his holes, and he explodes.

Okay, okay, this is the part where you say, “Yeah, but isn’t Philly’s defense pretty much terrible?” Well … yeah. They did get worse this offseason by adding Ernie Sims and Ellis Hobbs. Sims couldn’t even get himself motivated to play at Ford Field against his former team. His career is as good as done. Expect him to be out of the NFL as soon as next season.

But let’s talk about Best some more. He was UNREAL in this game. 230 yards of offense and 3 touchdowns. Speed around the edges and power through the middle. Grinding each yard to get first downs. He’s a smart player with instincts and a really good receiver out of the backfield. He had 9 catches and would have had 11 if Shaun Hill didn’t lob the ball over his head twice.

Speaking of Hill, he completed 25 of 45 passes (56%) for 335 yards and 2 TDs. He also threw a terrible INT in the first quarter and another really bad one in the third quarter to Hobbs. Both of the INTs were intended to Calvin, but were simply bad throws.

Despite the interceptions and the sometimes errant passes, Hill played well enough to keep the Lions offense moving. He wasn’t afraid of the pass rush. He stayed in the pocket and actually went through his reads. He checked down a lot, but only because Calvin was double-teamed and Burleson was on the sidelines. (Remember when we signed him to a huge deal in March and I predicted he would get hurt during week 4? Looks like I was two weeks off).

Hill had a QB rating of 75.7 in this game. Last year, Matt Stafford topped that mark in only 3 of his 10 starts. (5 times his QB rating was under 50). Hill threw for 2 TDs and 300+ yards. Stafford only achieved that feat once – the famed Cleveland game. Hill’s average yards-per-attempt was 7.44. Last season, Stafford topped that number in just 2 of his 10 games.

Here’s the point – Hill may not be great, he might not even be very good, but he’s better than Stafford. In his first start as a Lion, Hill had a better game than Stafford did in 9 of his 10 starts. (But wait, Stafford was a rookie, give him a chance, blah blah blah). Bull crap. Sam Bradford’s a rookie. So far, through two games, he has a 57% completion percentage, 210 yards per game, 5.6 yards per attempt, 1.5 TDs per game, 2 INTs per game, a QB rating of 69.5, and two losses by less than 4 points and 2 points.

In Stafford’s first two games … he had a 51% completion percentage, 177 yards per game, 5.2 yards per attempt, .5 TDs per game, 2.5 INTs, a QB rating of 41.5, and two losses by 18 and 14. In other words … worse. In every capacity imaginable.

In fact, over the course of the season, Stafford had a completion percentage of 53.3%, 226 yards per game, 6.01 yards per attempt, 1.3 TDs per game, 2 INTs per game, a QB rating of 61, and a 2-8 record, with seven of the eight losses by double digits.

So to summarize, Sam Bradford, who has played in just TWO games as an NFL starter, is already better than Matt Stafford. Are you surprised? If Bradford hadn’t stayed in college for his senior season, Detroit would have picked him #1 overall instead. And we would have won 4 or 5 games last year. And we’d be 2-0 right now. But whatever. Keep loving on Stafford you bunch of idiots. The guy looks great in a backwards hat.

I hope the separated shoulder keeps Stafford out for 6-8 weeks and Hill plays really well. Then, and only then, will people start to realize what a bust Stafford really is.

Because here’s the real point of the matter. Anytime anybody talks about Matt Stafford, they use this exact same line, verbatim, no matter what. Ready? Here it comes:

“Put (insert name of star quarterback) behind that sad excuse for an offensive line, and he’d be horrible too.”

To which I always reply: “No! That’s wrong. That’s not true! We actually have a pretty good offensive line. And if we had Peyton Manning (or Drew Brees, or Tom Brady, etc), we would be in the playoffs every season. It’s not a blocking problem. It’s a QUARTERBACK problem.”

Drafting a boob-loving, keg-drinking party boy and paying him $72 million dollars is NOT the answer, Detroit fans! He wasn’t a winner in college. Why would he be a winner in the NFL, where you can’t just rely on raw skills, you need to have intangibles like leadership and toughness and intelligence? Stafford is great at faking those intangibles, but so far, he’s yet to show that any of them are real. (But what about the Cleveland game!? He’s so tough!) SHUTUP about the damn Cleveland game! It was ONE GAME! And we would have lost that game if not for a pass interference call on a hailmary! And even if Stafford was 50/50 for 900 yards in that game, it was still just ONE damn GAME! We went 2-14 last season. We were the worst team in the NFL. Stafford had a worse QB rating than every single quarterback in the NFL except for the one in Oakland who was addicted to codeine. Shut up about the damn Cleveland game already!

Did you watch the Lions-Eagles game? We have a very solid offensive line. Yes, Backus is below average. Yes, Cherilus can’t pick up blitzes. Yeah, Peterman’s not great in pass protection. But they aren’t the worst line in the NFL. They probably aren’t even worse than Philly. I wouldn’t trade offensive lines with Pittsburgh, or Minnesota, or even San Diego. Those are good teams with successful quarterbacks.

Stafford needs to stop allowing people to blame the offensive line. He needs to learn to step up in the pocket. He needs to watch film and understand blitzes and develop eyes in the back of his head. That’s what sets Peyton and Drew and Tom apart from the rest. That’s what made Michael Vick so dang unstoppable. They know the pass rush is coming. They know the exact moment to step up and throw the ball. Stafford doesn’t.

And even so … he was only sacked 24 times last season. That’s less than 19 other quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers was sacked twice as often and still threw 30 touchdowns. It’s not an issue of sacks. It’s not an issue of blocking. It’s not an issue of the offensive line. It is an issue of accuracy, decision making, poise in the pocket, and preparation. Those are all quarterback issues.

Hill didn’t have great accuracy, but it was okay; he made very solid decisions with maybe 2 exceptions; he was remarkably poised in the pocket and went through his reads quickly; and you could tell he was prepared for the Philly defense and ‘took what the defense gave him,’ to use the cliché.

If I had to assign grades for the Lions-Eagles game, I’d give the offensive line a solid B+. They only gave up two sacks on 45 passing attempts. They helped the Lions gain 450 yards of offense. They gave Hill enough time to make his reads and throw the ball. Guess what? They do the same thing for Stafford each and every week. And he doesn’t go through his reads as quickly, and he throws stupider and less accurate passes. He ISN’T AS GOOD as his dang backup.

It’s not an offensive line issue. The next person who tells me that Tom Brady would have gone 0-16 behind the Lions’ offensive line is going to get a karate chop to the neck. It’s bull. Brady would have gone 11-5 and made the NFC Championship game. Good quarterbacks make offensive lines look good. You really think Jahri Evans is an All Pro guard if he’s on the Lions?? No! He’s average. He’s mediocre. But stick him on the Saints and Drew Brees makes him the highest-paid O-lineman in history.

What if Jeff Backus was Peyton Manning’s left tackle? Wouldn’t he (Backus) be a 5-time Pro Bowler? I’ll answer that for you – Yes! He absolutely would. Quarterbacks make offensive lines look good; not the other way around. Matt Stafford stinks, he’s always stunk, he always will, and he has nobody to blame but himself and his silicon-boobed girlfriend.

…Alright. That was today’s Stafford rant. On to the rest of week two.

Falcons-Cardinals

I thought the line was too high at 6.5 But Atlanta demolished the Cards by 34 points. Third-string running back Jason Snelling had 36 fantasy points. Just a brutal game for Arizona.

Implications: We still don’t know anything about Atlanta. They got beat by a good team on the road, and destroyed a bad team at home. They look very 8-8 to me right now.

Arizona is worse than we thought. Ken Whisesnhunt’s job is in jeopardy if they go 5-11 or worse. Which they might.

Vikings - Dolphins

Don’t panic Vikings fans. Yeah, you’re 0-2 and Favre looks horrible. Yeah, the Packers and Bears are both 2-0 and the playoffs already look like a fading dream.

But guess what – next week you host the Lions. Which means you’re technically 1-2, and what better way for Favre to get back on track than by playing the team he’s beat 25 times, including 7 in a row. Adrian Peterson should get 200 yards; Harvin should get 100; and touchdowns all around for Camarillo, Berrian, Shiancoe, and maybe even Toby Gerhard. Nothing like the Lions’ defense to remedy an 0-2 start.

For Miami, the best part of the 2-0 start is that they were both road games. They now have a full game lead in the AFC East, and they’re going to need it with games against the Jets and Pats looming (both at home). If they win those two games, they’re basically in the playoffs.

Packers – Bills

My prediction of 56-3 was a little off, but 34-7 was basically the same thing. No need to talk about the Packers offense; they’re unstoppable. Let’s talk about Clay Matthews. Last week he had 3 sacks and gave Kevin Kolb a concussion. This week – 3 more sacks and held Buffalo to basically zero offense. He’s got to be considered the early favorite for defensive player of the year.

The worst thing about this game for the Bills was the fact that CJ Spiller only ran the ball 1 time for 3 yards. What a waste of a draft pick if they’re going to platoon him along with Lynch and Jackson. My prediction that the Bills will go 0-16 is looking more and more likely. Now the only question is whether Jake Locker or Andrew Luck will be the pick at #1 overall.

Kansas City – Cleveland

I would say “who cares,” but Kansas City is off to a 2-0 start in a crummy division, so do they have to be taken seriously? Well, their next three games are San Fran, Indy and Houston. If they go 0-3 in those (which they probably will), then they’re done. But if they win one, or even two of those games, they are definitely a playoff sleeper. Keep your eye on them.

I wonder if any team has ever started 2-0 before with a quarterback who had a rating of 55.8, just 244 passing yards in two games and an average of 13 completions per game?

As for Andy Szymas’s sleeper pick this season (Cleveland), an 0-2 start to teams that combined for 7 wins last year is not a good omen. Eric Mangini is on the hottest of hot seats right now and rightfully so. Cleveland needs to use the Wildcat more.

Chicago – Dallas

Really Dallas? My Super Bowl pick is starting to look idiotic. Both of their losses are self-inflicted and Wade Phillips is yet another coach who’s job is in mortal jeopardy.

Speaking of which, Lovie Smith has the Bears off to a 2-0* start and has Jay Cutler looking decent. Excluding games against the Lions, this was the first time Cutler has thrown 3 TDs and no INTs since 2007. He only has one pick through 2 games after throwing 26 last season. Expect that to change next Monday night when the Bears host the Packers.

Tampa Bay – Carolina

What the heck? How is Tampa Bay 2-0?

My only conclusion from watching this game is that Carolina sucks a lot worse than I thought they did, especially Matt Moore. His completion percentage and QB rating so far are both less than 42. He must have learned a lot from Jake Delhomme.

Here’s a thought, Carolina – give Jonathan Stewart more than 8 carries. He ran for 1,110 yards last season and a 5.1 average. He would have torn Tampa to shreds if you gave him the ball 20 times.

I’m still not giving any love to Tampa. Their next 3 games are Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and New Orleans. They’re 2-3.

Cincinnati – Baltimore

I’m very glad I didn’t watch this game. 6 field goals. Very little offense. 15 total punts. Yuck.

The Ravens defense has been dominant so far this season (no touchdowns allowed) but their offense isn’t keeping up. Just 150 yards for Joe Flacco and 4 INTs. That’s nasty. I’m really regretting drafting him in my fantasy league. Wait, what? I drafted him and then traded him for Aaron ‘MVP’ Rodgers? Oh yeah. Sorry Andy.

Pittsburgh – Tennessee

I don’t usually take any joy in a Pittsburgh victory, but I’m very, very glad they kept Sonic the Hedgehog from getting 100 yards and extending his streak to 13 games, one shy of Barry’s record. The Greatest Running Back of all Time doesn’t have nearly as many records as he should and this is one I’d like to see stick around for a while. Now it’s safe for another season at least.

Any questions about Troy Polamalu’s health are officially answered. He has reclaimed his spot as ‘best defensive player in the NFL.’ And teammates James Harrison and Lamar Woodley are both in the top 10. It’s just too much talent on one defense. They forced 7 turnovers, had 4 sacks, gave up 46 total rushing yards and made Vince Young look like he had no business being an NFL quarterback.

What we learned: Pittsburgh will be in the playoffs this year. Definitely.

I wouldn’t panic if I were a Tennessean. They’ll be fine. They still look at least 8-8ish.

Denver – Seattle

I’m glad Denver won so Seattle doesn’t go to 2-0, but other than that, not very interesting. Knowshon Moreno had a nice stat line: 118 total yards and a TD, and Kyle Orton shredded a very bad Seattle secondary. His favorite target was rookie Demaryius Thomas with 8 catches. Last week it was Brandon Lloyd. Next week it’ll probably be Jabbar Gaffney. Whatever.

Seattle got one step closer to Charlie Whitehurst’s coming out party. Hasselbeck had 3 INTs, two of which were thrown deep in Denver territory. Both of these teams stink.

Oakland – St. Louis

Speaking of two smelly teams. Jason Campbell got benched for playing horribly for a second week in a row, and Bruce Gradkowski came in and won the game for Oakland. I can’t decide what’s more pathetic: only beating the Rams by 2 at home, or losing to the Raiders period. It’s not very often that both teams are pathetic.

I’ve already talked about Sam Bradford. He had another decent game in another close loss. He’s the real deal. He just needs a few weapons around him and a better defense. And Steven Jackson getting just 3.9 yards a carry against Oakland is kind of an eyebrow-raiser. Is Jackson getting older and slower, or is this Raiders front 7 pretty decent? Maybe both?

Houston – Washington

The game of the week, with a combined 927 passing yards and a 17 point comeback for the Texans. Very dramatic. I wish I would have watched more than just the last 5 minutes.

Matt Schaub continues his assault on the league with 497 passing yards and 38 stinking completions. Don’t look now, but he might be making a case for league MVP. And Andre Johnson, my first round fantasy pick in the B league, went for 158 yards and a score. Who needs Arian Foster?

Washington fell to 1-1 thanks to a classic ‘ice-the-kicker’ tactic in overtime which actually worked. Graham Gano nailed a 52-yarder as Houston called a timeout, and then when he kicked it again he missed it 20 yards to the right. Houston got the ball, Schaub threw a 30 yard pass, and it was over.

Gary Kubiak outcoached Mike Shanahan. Yeah, you read that right.

Jets – Patriots

When I picked this game, the word I used was yucky. And that’s exactly how it played out. Trash-talking, taunting penalties, a big game from Mark Sanchez … just yucky in every way. I really, really, really don’t like Rex Ryan. I’ve never seen a coach with a more dislikeable presence on the sidelines. He really makes it so that the game is all about him. It’s like he’s posing for the cameras all the time. Ugh.

But did you see that Randy Moss catch? I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen a better football catch in my life.

San Diego – Jacksonville

Typical game where the good home team beats down the crappy road team. This is what San Diego has to do to win the AFC West. Beat the crap out of bad teams, especially at home. Their offense is missing two key players and ultimately that’s going to be their downfall, but maybe they can go 9-7 just by beating up teams like Jacksonville.

This might have been the worst game of David Garrard’s career. Four interceptions, and no touchdowns until it was 38-6. Remember that weird 2007 season when Garrard only threw 3 picks the whole year, and like 20 touchdowns? Yeah, those days are long gone. He’s no longer a very good QB. I don’t even think you can call him average anymore.

And holy crap Maurice Jones-Drew! 40 yards and a fumble? This was San Diego you played against, not Baltimore! What kind of sad performance was that from Mo-Jo?

Huge game for Rivers and Gates. Ryan Matthews got hurt after 26 yards and a fumble (helping Jahvid Best’s ROY case) and Mike Tolbert came in and got 95 yards and 2 TDs. He’ll be popular off the waiver wire this week.

With the other three teams in their division all looking playoff-worthy, Jacksonville might be destined for a 3-13 season. And that means one of the first round QBs (Luck, Locker, Mallet) will probably be a Jaguar next season.

Indy – NY Giants

I had the pleasure of watching this game almost entirely from start to finish. And I say pleasure because it was perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time playing an utterly perfect game. Not only was Peyton 20 for 26 for 255 yards and 3 TDs, but he called all the plays, didn’t make any mistakes, and dissected a very good defense effectively and ruthlessly. His play can only be described as ‘perfect.’

Little brother Eli wasn’t as good, with just 13 completions (only 3 in the first half!) and three turnovers. But he was tormented by Freeney and Mathis all game long and rarely had more than 2 seconds to deliver the ball downfield. The Giants offensive line was bad … really bad. And stubborn coaching by Tom Coughlin, who refused to give the tackles any help, led to one of Eli’s worst pro games.

Everybody should be very, very scared of the Colts when they’re at home.

New Orleans – San Francisco

I’ll be honest, I didn’t watch any of this game. I don’t have cable, and I didn’t feel like going anywhere last night. But I did watch the NFL.com highlights and skim through the play-by-play. And here’s what I thought …

Brees had another flawless game. 28/38 for 250 yards and 2 scores …He’s pretty much the Peyton Manning of the NFC and his consistency is scary. His counterpart Alex Smith was 23/32 for 275 and 1 score, plus 2 INTs. Smith’s favorite target was Frank Gore with 7 catches, and Josh Morgan also caught 6. Michael Crabtree had just 1 reception.

Reggie Bush is having a rough week. First he lost the 2005 Heisman trophy for being a cheating scumbag. Then he fractured his fibula while trying to recover a muffed punt, and will be out for at least 6 weeks. Yikes. Next the NFL will probably make a rule forbidding players to flip into the end zone, and he’ll be out of a job completely.

San Fran played okay and covered the spread, but when you lose the turnover-differential 4 to 0, you’re not going to win. Patrick Willis had 9 tackles and a sack, but it wasn’t enough. Brees is just too good, and so far he’s survived the Madden Curse through two weeks against two tough defenses. Let’s see how long he goes.

Fantasy Picks

They were so bad that I don’t even want to talk about it. But I did win both of my main leagues, as well as 7-3 in the 10 other leagues. The Morgan Massacre scored 207 points in ESPN league 5, thanks to Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Calvin Johnson, Malcolm Floyd, Dustin Keller, and the Steelers D. I also have Ndamukong Suh in that league and he led all DTs with 11 points this week.

By the way, guess who leads the NFL in fantasy points after 2 weeks of football?

Not Chris Johnson. Not Aaron Rodgers. Not AP. None other than ….

Jahvid. Freaking. Best.

- - - -

Stay tuned for week 3 picks …

Gunther Cunningham - why don't you shut up

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2010/09/detroit_lions_kyle_vanden_bosc.html

just read this article

it's an embarassment to my intelligence that Cunningham would say this.

i cant rattle off 10 defensive ends who are better than kyle vandenbosch without even breaking a sweat ...

1. mario williams
2. jared allen
3. dwight freeney
4. julius peppers
5. justin tuck
6. aaron kampman
7. trent cole
8. richard seymour
9. will smith
10. robert mathis

and when you consider that at least 12 teams run a 3-4 defense, think of all the OLBs (who are technically DEs) who are better than vandenbosch

1. demarcus ware
2. james harrison
3. clay matthews
4. elvis dumervil
5. lamar woodley
6. calvin pace
7. tamba hali
8. brian orakpo
9. terrell suggs

that's at least 19 pass rushers who are better than vandenbosch right now. and that's by no means an exhaustive list. heck, KVB tied for 108th last year in total sacks. everyone on this list had twice as many sacks as him. vandenbosch had the same number of sacks as San Fran DT Ray McDonald, a third-string player who made only 8 tackles all season.

look, kyle is a pretty good defensive end considering he's 31 years old and white and only mildly athletic. but for Lions defensive coordinator gunther cunningham to call him the: "Best football player i've ever been around" is nothing short of a flagrant attack on my intelligence.

gunther coached derrick johnson, who has 126 career sacks, 9 pro bowls and was a first ballot hall of famer. vandenbosch has 42 career sacks and has played in 3 pro bowls. no comparison. none.

i am so sick of gunther making these stupid comments. he's not fooling anybody. literally, there's not one single person who could read this article without thinking "what an obvious load of bull."

i know he's trying to psych the lions defense up. i know he's trying to establish KVB as a leader and a role model. good for him. but please, let the play on the field do the talking.

vandenbosch isn't even the best player on his own defensive line.

Week Two Picks and Predicts

Kansas City @ Cleveland
Line: Cleveland by 2

Last week the Chiefs beat San Diego (who went 13-3 last year) while the Browns lost to Tampa Bay (3-13). So it would seem logical to pick the Chiefs.

But hold on. In the Monday night victory, Matt Cassel completed only 10 passes for a measly 68 yards; their offense was nonexistent. If not for a Jamaal Charles 56 yard touchdown scamper, the Chiefs offense would have been under 100 TOTAL YARDS. That's terrible! They won the game on defense, special teams, and because of a raucous home crowd in the pouring rain. It was a very, very ugly victory.

Cleveland, on the other hand, outplayed and outgained Tampa Bay in every respect, but lost because of an emblematic Delhomme interception and some stupid coaching down the stretch. (Seriously, how is Eric Mangini still employed?!) But they deserved to win that game and should have.

I really like KC's young defense. I love Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson (12 tackles against SD) and Tamba Hali and Glenn Dorsey, who might have played his best professional game last week. But they'll have a tough time against Cleveland's offensive line led by Joe Thomas and Alex Mack. Cleveland should be able to run the ball in this game, control the clock, and squeeze out an ugly victory. I'll take the Browns +2 and both teams will be 1-1.

Cardinals @ Falcons
Line: Atlanta by 6.5

This line is just too high. Atlanta looked like garbage last week. Granted, they played at Pittsburgh which is never easy, but you've got to be able to score at least 1 touchdown to be favored by a touchdown.

Arizona actually looked very solid defensively. Again, granted they were against the Rams, but holding Steven Jackson to 81 yards was quite an accomplishment. Darnell Docket played really well, and should hold Michael Turner to another disappointing game.

Matchup to watch: Dunta Robinson against Larry Fitzgerald. I think Fitz lights him up. Derek Anderson is not good, but against Atlanta and their lack of a pass rush, he might have a pretty good game.

I like the Falcons to win, but I'll take Arizona against the spread.

Ravens @ Bengals
Line: Baltimore by 2

The Ravens were my Super Bowl pick, and they looked awful in a hideous win over the Jets. They only scored 10 points and managed just 49 rushing yards. But they got the victory, thanks to the dastardly play of Marc Sanchez, who was probably the worst week one quarterback of all 32 teams.

They'll face Carson Palmer this week, who stunk pretty badly himself week 1. His final stat line looked okay, but he did nothing in the first half and was trailing 31-3 by the time he started throwing touchdowns. Plus 52 of his yards came on a garbage hailmary to end the first half. I think the Ravens D will keep both TO and Ocho out of the endzone and that, combined with the 0-2 start, will spell the beginnings of crazy town for Cincinnati. Good thing they brought in Pacman Jones to keep the locker room sane.

I generally don't pick against home underdogs, but in this case I think Baltimore is just too talented. I like the Ravens +2.

Philly @ Detroit
Line: Eagles by 6

The line shifted from +4 to +6 with the news that Stafford is definitely out, and frankly I don't think they moved it high enough. Stafford isn't a great quarterback, but something about his presence gives the Lions a feeling that maybe they can win. Shaun Hill is a guy who screams "backup!" with all of his body language and doesn't inspire any confidence.

On San Francisco, Hill had a career record of 10-5 as a starter. He's got 23 TDs and just 12 INTs in his career and a 61.2% completion percentage. The good news is those 49ers teams he played for lacked a stellar offensive line and competent receivers, just like the Lions. So we know he's played well on a crappy offense before.

But not an offense quite as crappy as this year's Lions. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan looked like a complete fool last week, getting massively outcoached and coordinating the most predictable play-calling imaginable. His mentality was one we've seen before in Detroit: "Expect to lose." That losing mindset killed the Lions in the second quarter, when a complete lack of aggressiveness led to our eventual loss.

Philly's defense isn't dynamic or elite, but they're a whole lot better than Detroit's offense. Trent Cole is a tough matchup for Backus. Brandon Graham should have his way against Gosder. Ernie Sims will be looking for vengeance. And they have an instinctive safety in Quintin Mikell who should prevent the Lions from running the ball with any success. Ellis Hobbs will cover Burleson effectively.

The only favorable matchup for Detroit is Calvin against gambler Asante Samuel. Free safety Nate Allen, a rookie from South Florida, will assist Samuel in double-teaming Megatron. (Eagles FS Marlin Jackson is out with an Achilles rupture.) I love the matchup Calvin has against Samuel and a rookie. However, I don't trust Hill to get him the ball. I don't trust the offensive line to protect Hill. And I think Samuel's gambling nature will pay off and he'll have at least one interception, possibly two, and maybe three. In fact, I'll say right now that Samuel is more likely to score in this game than Calvin is. That's how little confidence I have in Hill and Linehan and the offensive line.

While Detroit is punting and turning the ball over, Michael Vick will be running the WildCat (or the WildDog in his case) and torturing the Lions defense. He's got 4 very good receiving threats - speedsters Jackson and Maclin, possession guy Jason Avant, and tight end Brent Celek. Expect Vick to throw at least 1 and probably 2 deep touchdowns on a blown coverage, and to have 25-30 completions without breaking a sweat. Detroit's secondary gave up 372 passing yards last week. And nickleback Aaron Berry (the guy who made the interception last week) is now out for the season with a shoulder injury. Detroit signed former Bear Nathan Vasher (best known for this 108 yard return) and also has Alphonso Smith to replace Berry. I have zero confidence in either of those guys and neither should you.

But remember, this is Michael Vick we're talking about. Forget the passing game. He's looking to run. He's looking to make highlights, not win football games. And therein lies our one chance to win this game. Vick is the Allen Iverson of the NFL. He's a me-first guy who wants to create an individual legacy of highlights and stats. He will make stupid mental mistakes. He will fumble. He will throws picks. If, and only if, the Detroit defense makes him.

Remember when Vick was on Atlanta in the early 2000s and the one team that could always stop him was Tampa Bay? Remember when Simeon Rice and Chidi Ahanotu (the athletic defensive ends) and future Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks would completely remove Vick's ability to run and force him to throw? Remember the game in 2004 when Tampa blanked Atlanta 27-0 and Vick had four turnovers? For some reason, that game sticks out in my mind and always has.

In those days, Tampa provided a template for how to beat Mike Vick. It's simple - containment. The defensive ends need to be able to keep Vick from escaping the pocket, and a linebacker needs to chase him all over the field. Tampa had the personnel and as a result they beat Vick 6 out of 8 times before he went to prison.

Does Detroit have the personnel? Well, Kyle VandenBosch should help. Cliff Avril is pretty good. But neither are Pro Bowlers. And our linebackers are very lackluster, especially considering that DeAndre Levy is likely to miss another game with the groin injury and Landon Johnson looked lost against Chicago last week. Vick is now 30 years old, but he still has speed. And I hate this matchup for Detroit. I wish Kevin Kolb was playing.

The good news is, I picked up Vick and am starting him in 7 of my 12 leagues.

I like Philly and the over. Projected score: 33-13. Yay for the home opener.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee
Line: Titans by 5

Okay, so I didn't like Tennessee this year and last week they won against Oakland in a game I picked slightly wrong. Okay, so they won by 4 touchdowns. I may have misunderestimated Chris Johnson.

But I still am not sold on the Titans defense, or Vince Young.

Pittsburgh beat Atlanta in a very ugly game (as I predicted they would) and the defense looked positively awesome. Dennis Dixon, on the other hand, looked positively awful. So much so that Steelers fans everywhere are crying for Charlie Batch to start. But Tomlin is sticking with Dixon, for better or worse.

I think this will be a highly entertaining and low scoring game. I think Johnson's streak of 12 straight 100-yard games comes to an end. I think Dixon plays a little better and doesn't make many mistakes. I think the difference in the game is turnovers, and like I said earlier, I don't trust Vince Young.

I like the Steelers in the upset of the week.

Miami @ Minnesota
Line: Vikings by 5.5

After watching Favre last week, there's no way he should be getting 6 points against a pretty good team. He looked terrible. Really, honestly, terrible.

But ... Miami didn't look much better. They only beat Buffalo by 5. They only managed one touchdown. But a win is a win, and they'll take it. Karlos Dansby looked excellent as the new leader of Miami's defense.

Anyone can look excellent against Buffalo. Let's see Dansby against Adrian Peterson. If Favre doesn't get in the way, Minnesota should win this. But I'll take Miami against the too-high spread.

Buffalo @ Green Bay
Line: Packers by 13

You gotta love lines like this.

Last week, after a 27-20 victory in Philly, Aaron Rodgers met with one of those sideline reporter girls and told me everything I need to know about the Packers this season. He was pissed. He was wildly disappointed. He blasted himself and said he failed to execute the offense and was angry, but they would be better next week. He acted like they just lost in a blowout. Hello? You just won IN Philly against a pretty good team and you scored 27 points.

If Rodgers was unhappy with 27 points on the road against a good team, how is he going to play at home against a horrendous team? Something tells me they couldn't make this line high enough. I'm not going to be surprised if it's 56-3. I like the over. In fact, make that the Lock of the Week.

Chicago @ Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 7.5

Last week two of Dallas's starting offensive lineman, Marc Columbo and Kyle Kosier, were MIA and as a result Dallas's offense couldn't do much (7 points, 5 for 13 on 3rd downs, and about 6 holding penalties). This week, one or both of those guys should be back, and Dallas should hang at least 30 points on the board. The Bears defense just didn't look impressive last week. Especially in the secondary. Romo is a great fantasy play this week.

I don't like to pick the over on spreads higher than 7, but Chicago looked like a really sucky team last week and I have zero confidence in Jay Cutler. So I'll go with Dallas.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Line: Panthers by 3.5

Change the line to Panthers by 10 and then we'll talk. Next.

St. Louis @ Oakland
Line: Raiders by 3.5

Not saying the Rams will win. But I don't think Oakland should be favored by more than a field goal after last week's embarrassing effort. I'll take the Rams in what I think will be a close game. But who knows with either of these teams.

Seattle @ Denver
Line: Broncos by 3.5

I don't like the idea that Seattle could be 2-0, but I don't really think Denver is a winning team. But alas, someone has to win this battle of ego-maniacal coaches who have disassembled their rosters and put their teams in terrible shape for the future.

I think this will be one of those ugly punt-filled games that will ultimately be decided by a big special teams play or a crucial turnover. Hasslebeck seems the safer quarterback to bet on. But Denver's usually pretty good at home. Bah. When in doubt, take the points. I'll go Seahawks.

Houston @ Washington
Line: Texans by 3

This is how Vegas works. You beat the Colts week 1, you'll be favored for a while, even on the road against decent teams. Houston really can't afford to lose this game and fall right back into a tie with Indy for the division lead. They've got to make Indy chase them for a while. And to be honest, I didn't see anything about Donovan McNabb that makes me think he isn't completely washed up. I mean, Washington got outplayed badly last week and only won because Dallas beat themselves. I don't think Houston beats themselves. And I don't think Andre Johnson will be under 100 yards two weeks in a row.

Matchup to watch: rising star Arian Foster (not afraid of contact) against grumpy Albert Haynesworth.

I've like Houston all summer and I'm not backing down now.

Jacksonville @ San Diego
Line: Chargers by 7

That's a big line for a team coming off a loss to the Chiefs. I'm leery about picking a team that has to fly cross-country, but I am taking the Jags in this one.

I just think the absence of left tackle Marcus McNeill is a bigger deal than people realize, and Aaron Kampman (who had 2 sacks and 9 tackles last week against the LT-depleted Broncos) will torment Rivers all game. Ryan Matthews doesn't look like he's ready for the NFL. And San Diego's defense isn't ready for Jones-Drew. Call me crazy, but I like Jacksonville to go 2-0 and San Diego to start 0-2. I may be wrong, but against a 7 point spread I'm willing to go out on a limb.

New England @ NY Jets
Line: Patriots by 3

Gambling 101: beware of the Home Dog. (AKA underdogs at home.) I hate the Jets this year and everything about them; conversely, I love the Patriots and think they're a top 5 overall team right now.

But things don't usually work out for me. I'm usually wrong. So I'll take the Jets ... this game just feels all yucky to me.

NY Giants @ Colts
Line: Indy by 5.5

Here's a sidebet: how many times will they show Archie Manning in the stands? I'll put the over/under at 16.5 and take the over.

Next question: how many times will the commentators say the word "Manning" in this game? Over/under at 220. I'll take the over again.

As for the game, I like Indy because what are the chances of Peyton Manning losing 3 straight games? Has it ever happened? And is he really going to go 0-2 at the hands of his dopey little brother? No stinking way. Eli will fight admirably, but Peyton has too many weapons. This'll be a classic, maybe a 45-38 shootout, but I'll take Indy narrowly over the spread.

New Orleans @ San Francisco
Saints by 5.5

Another Home Dog. Another team flying across the country. And another chance for the Madden Curse to strike. More than likely the Saints will win, but 6 is too many points for San Fran to be giving up at home. I think this'll be a nasty slugfest and San Fran will prove that last week was an anamoly and they do belong in the playoffs.

Fantasy Studs and Duds

Here are the guys I would recommend and steer clear of:

Quarterbacks --
STUDS - Mike Vick against Detroit (5); Garrard against San Diego (7)
DUDS - Brees against San Fran (12); Brady against the Jets (10); Palmer against Baltimore (24)

Running Backs --
STUDS - Brandon Jackson (5); DeAngelo Williams (4); Jonathan Stewart (9); Ahmad Bradshaw (11)
DUDS - Ray Rice (13); Cedric Benson (22); Ryan Matthews (25)

Wide Receivers - -
STUDS - Jeremy Maclin (11); Donald Driver (13); Steve Smith CAR (2)
DUDS - Randy Moss (21); Chad Ochocinco (22); Marques Colston (25); Calvin Johnson (40)

Defenses- -
STUDS - Eagles (1); Packers (2); Panthers (5); Texans (9)
DUDS - Vikings (12); Jets (14); Saints (23)

That's it. Enjoy week two. Go Lions.

Week One Wrap Up

I don't want to talk about it.

I'm referring, of course, to the now infamous call, the catch that was ruled a non-catch, the game-winning TD which was taken away by a very stupid rule. The bullshit decision by the referees to put the fate of the game in their own hands, rather than the hands of the players.

When Calvin caught the ball and clearly had possession and was fully in bounds, I jumped up and down. I ran around the room. I yelled and screamed and pounded my fists on the coffee table. I woke up my niece. It was worth it. We scored, we took the lead with 25 seconds to go, we finally snapped the streak of 20 consecutive road losses, we won for only the third time in over 2 seasons! We beat a division rival, and we did it without our starting quarterback, and it was an unbelievable effort!

Then, like a swift punch in the gut, the referees said some gibberish and my sister-in-law was none too pleased that I woke Sadie up for what turned out to be an incomplete pass. Two more hailmarys landed harmlessly and the Lions began the season 0-1 for the sixth consecutive season.

Like I said, I don't want to talk about it. It was such a heinously bad call, such a flagrant mishandling of what officiating should be about, that even Bears' fans are saying it was BS. The entire country is rallying around the Lions and calling this an atrocity. No one outside of the officiating community thinks the correct call was made. It's utterly egregious.

But I digress ... from here forward I resolve to not talk about the play, the catch, or the call for the rest of the season, or at least for the rest of this post. Instead let's focus on the first 59 minutes and 30 seconds of the game.

---

Remember back to my Bears-Lions preview last week? I said that the matchup I was most worried about was Jeff Backus against Julius Peppers. Well, through a quarter and a half Backus did an okay job and kept Stafford upright, but one play can make a world of difference.

With a minute to play before halftime, Backus got lazy on a single play and was beat around the corner by Peppers, who karate chopped Stafford's throwing arm and dislodged the ball, a fumble which led to a field goal and ultimately changed the landscape of the game. But more importantly, the hit separated Stafford's shoulder and will sideline him for at least one game, and likely more.

When a $72 million dollar investment is injured, that's a bad thing. When his throwing shoulder is injured two seasons in a row, that's a very, very bad thing. Obviously, if you've read this blog before, you know I'm not high on Stafford's bandwagon. But he is the quarterback of the future, for better or worse. And as much I think he's overrated and unjustly considered a rising star, I'd rather have him out there than Shaun Hill.

Blame Jeff Backus. But more than that, blame the Lions' management who have failed to draft a suitable left tackle in the past five drafts.

• 2005 - Instead of Mike Williams, they could have taken 2 time Pro Bowl LT Jamaal Brown. In the second round, they could have taken Pro Bowler Michael Roos instead of Shaun Cody.


• 2006 - Instead of safety Daniel Bullocks in the second round, we could have drafted Pro Bowl LT Marcus McNeill. Or in the third round, we could have taken All Pro guard Jahri Evans instead of useless running back Brian Calhoun.


• 2007 - Calvin Johnson was a good pick at #2, but Joe Thomas would have given us an All Pro left tackle. Or in the second round, we coulda taken about 5 potential Pro Bowlers (Lamar Woodley, Ryan Kalil, David Harris, Sidney Rice) instead of the worthless Drew Stanton.


• 2008 - At least we finally took an offensive tackle in the first round, though LT Jeff Otah would have been a much better pick than RT Gosder Cherilus.
  
• 2009 - The worst pick of all: we took TE Brandon Pettigrew (a total luxury pick) at 20th overall when we could have taken future star left tackle Michael Oher. This was a no brainer and the Lions messed it up.

That's at least five blown chances to draft a replacement for mediocre Jeff Backus, and the Lions can now kick themselves in the butt. Stafford didn't even survive one half of 2010 football without a serious injury.

After halftime, Stafford came out wearing a black tanktop (I have no clue why he couldn't keep his jersey on?) and was clearly not going back on the field. I personally think he's a little bit of a wuss, but ever since his "heroic" game against Cleveland last year he's considered bulletproof by most folks.

When I said Stafford needed to stop getting hurt and keep his ass on the field, my brother said that my shoulder would be separated too if Julius Peppers had karate chopped me. Very true. My arm would have probably exploded and I'd still be laying on the ground crying 4 days later. But Stafford, unlike me, is a professional athlete. He should be in the weight room 6 hours a day strengthening his arms precisely so things like this do not happen. The fact that he didn't even survive 30 minutes of NFL action this season tells me that he's not strong enough to play in the NFL.

Of course, while Stafford sat on the sidelines and watch Shaun Hill orchestrate the Lions' offense to a whopping 9 yards in the 3rd quarter, the announcers gave him plenty of credit. "Without Stafford at quarterback, the Lions really can't get anything done." Yes, that's true. But with Stafford? I mean, he only threw for 83 yards in the first half. That's not outstanding. In fact, that stinks. He didn't have a single completion to Calvin OR Burleson. In the entire half.

So next week against the Eagles, it'll be Shaun Hill at the helm (squaring off against Michael Vick) and Stafford will get plenty of adoration simply for sitting on the bench in a t-shirt with a backwards hat. This guy really has the life. Throw 20 picks in 10 games - get compared to Peyton Manning. Have a QB rating of 61 (worse than everyone in the league except JaMarcus Russell) - get compared to Troy Aikman. Now the guy gets injured for the second time in two seasons, and he'll be compared to Nelson Mandela for his leadership and strength of character. Whatever.

On the positive side of things...

How about that Lions defense!!?

Sure they gave up 463 yards of total offense, including an 89 yard screen pass ... but they also forced FOUR turnovers and created 4 sacks. Granted, the Bears offensive line is terrible. But still!

The most impressive and inspiring thing about this game for Detroit was the secondary. Maybe it wasn't an accurate representation because Jay Cutler is such an ass-snake ... but it sure seemed like they'll be better than advertised. CC Brown looks to be the real deal at safety - he looked like a Delmas clone out there with 6 tackles. Jonathan Wade and Chris Houston looked extremely aggressive, especially on run plays, and showed toughness at the CB position that I ain't never seen as a Detroit fan. And Delmas looked like his usual beastly self.

The Lions tackling was actually solid all game long. The coverage ... not so great. But if we improve in small steps that's better than nothing. And let's not forget about the real star of this game - Ndamukong Freaking Suh.

Yeah, if you look at the box score Suh only had 2 tackles. One was a sack. He also had two quarterback hits. But if you really watched the game, you saw the makings of a truly dominant defensive tackle. An All Time Great in the making. Call me an idiot all you want, but Ndamukong Suh will be in the Hall of Fame by 2035.

Suh was double-teamed literally the ENTIRE game, on every single snap, and that's what allowed Kyle VandenBosch to record a phenomenal 12 tackles and chase Cutler around all day. That's what allowed the Lions to register 4 sacks and forced Matt Forte to run for only 2.9 yards per carry. And most notably, Suh's presence is what caused the Bears to run the ball up the gut unsuccessfully on FOUR consecutive snaps after recovering a fumble on the Lions' 1 yard line. Four chances to score from a yard out, and four failures. Make no mistake - that was ALL Suh.

He's every bit as good as I hoped he was.

Oh, and as long as we're talking about Lions rookies ... how about Jahvid Best!!? 14 carries for 20 yards ... a 1.4 yard average ... admittedly, that's awful. But two touchdowns in his debut game? I don't think Kevin Smith has EVER run for 2 TDs in the same game! Best also caught 5 passes (for only 16 yards - most of them were checkdowns on third and longs) but still, he proved that he can be the third down back. Most importantly, Kevin Smith did not play a snap. Maurice Morris was Best's backup (2 carries, 2 catches) and Jerome Felton was the short yardage guy (though not successfully).

For some inexplicable reason, the Lions went to Felton on about 5 plays in a row in the second quarter. I wondered if Best was injured, but that wasn't the case. Apparently they forgot Felton was a fullback. Or didn't feel like doing a substitution. I'm not sure what happened. But after a couple punts, they dropped that strategy in a hurry.

----

Overall, the Lions deserved to lose this game. (Even though they technically won). But they were outgained by 300 total yards, ran the ball for only 20 yards total, and gained less than 50 yards in the second half.

They forced 4 Bears turnovers and benefitted from over 100 yards in Bears penalties, and still couldn't score. The defense was stout, but the offense was anemic. (Who ever thought that sentence would be typed about the 2010 Lions huh?) When your offensive play-calling is simply: run, run, pass, and punt ... you deserve to lose. You need to gain more than 168 yards of offense to win in the NFL.

---

Here are some further week one thoughts:

My Picks:

I was 9-7 against the spread this week. I nailed the upset special (Chiefs over Chargers) but whiffed on my "easiest pick of the week" (49ers @ Seahawks).

If not for a Dallas holding penalty as time expired, I would have been 10-6. And a few of the games (Colts losing, Tampa winning) were shockers.

For my fantasy predictions ...

I said Cutler would be the third best quarterback (he was 4th), and Eli would be 6th (he was 9th). I whiffed on the Alex Smith and Henne picks (both were bad). My QB duds were Romo, Rivers and Flacco. I was right about Flacco, who finished with just 5 points, but wrong about the other two.

At RB, I liked Beanie Wells as a stud but of course he did not play. I also liked Charles, Forte, and Ronnie Brown, who I said would finish with the 7th, 8th, and 10th most points at that position, respectively. In reality they finished 7th, 2nd, and 8th. Pretty good.

For RB duds, I nailed all four picks - Turner, Rice, Greene and Matthews. None finished with more than 5 points.

At WR, I liked Marshall and Welker (both good calls) and whiffed on Steve Smith B and Knox. I disliked Boldin and Roddy White and Steve Smith A, and they all had good games. But at least I picked Mike Sims-Walker as a dud, and he had zero catches.

My tight ends picks and DST picks were solid. Not great, but about 7 out of 10 were right on.

You would think I would have some fantasy success this week, but I went 0-2 in my two main leagues, losing by 15 points combined. In my Yahoo and ESPN leagues, however, I went 8-2. In Yahoo league 4 I won by over 100 points. I think I should be more of a 'fantasy football consultant' than an active participant. Maybe I should check monster.com and see if they have any openings.

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Here's what we learned Week One.

1. Houston is for real, and Arian Foster is a stud. He ran for 231 yards and 3 TDs against a Colts defense which has historically struggled against the run.

2. Brett Favre is done. He looked awful, he looked 40 years old, and he looked like he needed a receiver. The Vikings are going 6-10 this year.

3. Wes Welker is the MVP of the Patriots. They're in good shape for another 12 win season. And they might wrap up the division early.

4. San Diego is going to struggle to win 8 games. So are the Jets. And so are the Cowboys.

5. Alex Smith still stinks. The 49ers might win the NFC West at 5-11.

6. Clay Matthews will be in the discussion for defensive MVP.

7. Troy Polamalu's injury is distant history. He is back and so are the Steelers, They should probably be considered the AFC North favorites until further notice.

8. After just one week of NFL action, Detroit ranks 31 in total offense and 31 in total defense. Splendid.

Notable Week One Injuries

You know about Stafford's shoulder and Kevin Kolb's concussion. You probably heard that Ryan Grant messed up his ankle and will miss a few games, and Matt Moore got a concussion which will force Jimmy Claussen into the starting lineup week 2 (home against Tampa, a nice way to begin a career).

But did you see that Jets nosetackle Kris Jenkins hurt his knee (the same knee he had surgery on last year) and will probably miss at least half the season. He's the guy who gives the Jets a dominant run defense. This injury is big.

Another hurt nosetackle was Pittsburgh's Casey Hampton. He tore a hamstring and might miss a few weeks. Steelers starting left tackle Max Starks was also hurt and will miss a month.

Philly suffered the worst. Along with losing Kolb, they saw fullback Leonard Weaver tear an ACL and starting middle linebacker Stewart Bradley suffered a concussion.

Oakland DE Richard Seymour suffered a minor injury, as did San Fran's Ted Ginn Jr. and Colts Bob Sanders. All of them should be back in action by week 3 at the latest.

Jake Delhomme will get an MRI on his ankle and might miss a game or two. Seneca Wallace might make an interesting fantasy play against KC if Jake is out.

And then there's the Buffalo Bills, who lost linebacker Paul Posluszny to a long-term knee injury, just days after losing Kawika Mitchell for the season. When your two best linebackers are both gone for the season, and you're already the worst team in the NFL, well ... I guess you just pack your bags and move the franchise to Toronto.

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Stay tuned for week 2 picks, thoughts on Lions-Eagles, and more insightful musings from my twisted mind. Go lions. Go SUH!