Coming off a solid week of picks (9-5), dominating my main fantasy league (I'm 6-1), and the Yankees missed the World Series. And the Heat lost last night, scoring only 9 points in the 1st quarter.
Things are great right now in the world of sports.
The Pistons start their season tonight with a blank slate and a date with the new-look Nets. Excited to watch Greg Monroe. Not excited to watch Stuckey, Rip, Prince, Gordon, T-Mac, Wallace, Villanueva, or Wilcox. Mildly depressed just thinking about it. Let's go back to football.
Redskins (4-3) @ Lions (1-5)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: DET by 2.5
Wow. This marks only the 10th time since 2006 that the Lions have been favored; they're 2-7 in those 9 games. This line indicates that the Lions and Redskins are equal, despite the fact that Washington's quarterback has won more than 80 games in his career, and Stafford has more career injuries than wins. Maybe I'm missing something, but isn't quarterback a pretty valuable position?
Well, here's the thing: Washington's defense is bad. Like, really bad. As in, they rank dead last in yards allowed and are on pace to allow 4,672 passing yards, an NFL record. That explains the strange line, but it begs the obvious question: Is Washington's defense really that bad?
I don't think so.
Look at who they've played - Dallas, Houston, Philly, Green Bay, Indy, and Chicago. Six of their seven games were against pass-heavy offenses and quarterbacks who amass yardage like it's their job. How is any defense supposed to play against Romo, Schaub, Kolb, Rodgers, Manning and Cutler and not give up close to 300 yards per game?
It should also be noted that despite giving up a league-worst 406 yards of offense per game, Washington allows only 19 points per game, which ranks in the top 10. They're tied for second in the NFL in takeaways with 17. They're 4th in the NFC in sacks. In terms of third-down percentage, they are the fourth best defense in the NFL.
So are they truly awful? The surface stats say yes, but the deeper look says no. They give up yards in bundles, but they are stout when it matters and very opportunistic. They have an elite safety in Laron Landry (he leads all defensive backs in tackles) and a middle linebacker in London Fletcher who has the 5th most tackles in NFL history. They've got a sack master in Brian Orakpo, and they've got a lockdown cornerback who just set an NFL record with 4 interceptions last week.
So how bad is the Washington defense, really? I mean, you've got to realize that Stafford is by far the worst quarterback they've faced this season, so isn't it entirely possible that this line is bogus?
Hmm ...
Well, as long as Stafford can replicate what Shaun Hill has done over the last 5 weeks and effectively dink and dunk to the tight ends and running backs, he should be effective. As long as Jahvid Best carries the ball early and often and doesn't leave Stafford in 3rd and long situations, the Lions should move the chains and avoid turnovers. And as long as Jeff Backus can keep Orakpo from karate chopping Stafford's arm and separating his shoulder for the fourth time in 2 years, we won't have to see Drew Stanton anytime soon. Add it all up, and our offense should be productive. I'm thinking Stafford's stats look like this: 21-37, 255 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs. We should be able to hang 20 or 24 points on them and that would be a success.
But I haven't touched on the Redskins' offense at all yet. Their quarterback, a future Hall of Famer, is quietly having the worst season since his rookie year. Donovan's career passer rating is 87; this season, it's a measly 76. His completion percentage is down, yards-per-attempt is down, and interceptions-per-attempt is way up. In fact, going into this season, McNabb ranked as the best quarterback in NFL history in terms of fewest INTs per attempt - 96 INTs on 4,588 attempts for a 2.09% rate. But this season McNabb has been intercepted 7 times on 247 attempts, a 2.83% rate. What's changed? Is he aging, or lacking receivers, or simply missing the Andy Reid offense? How about: all of the above.
Mostly, I blame Mike Shanahan. McNabb mastered the West Coast offense for 11 years and then was asked to learn a completely new offense under a new coach. He's having a bad season by his standards ... but could it be possible that a date with the Lions' secondary could cure all ills?
I expect Washington to run the ball early and often with Ryan Torain, who has proven over the past two weeks that he's no fun to tackle. Torain has very little speed but tons of power, and those kinds of running backs typically murder the Lions. He'll put McNabb is favorable situations all day (2nd and 3, 3rd and 1, etc) and that means McNabb can throw deep and use the play-action. Between that and McNabb's mild ability to scramble and buy time in the pocket, it could be an awful day for the Detroit secondary.
Santana Moss isn't overwhelming, but he had the best game of his career last year against the Lions (10 catches, 178 yards) and that's especially ugly when you consider that Moss has played in 134 games. Anthony Armstrong is the other receiver and possible deep threat. He'll probably have 2 catches for 90 yards and a long TD. Chris Cooley should have his usual 6 catches for 70 yards or so.
This is one of the few winnable games for the Lions, but it's tough to trust the defense considering how well Torain has been playing lately. Penalties and turnovers will probably be significant, and that's always bad news for the Big Blue Idiots. Special teams are a strength for the Lions, but we can't expect Logan to score again. If he can just bring the kickoffs to the 30 that would be fantastic. I expect a lot of 3-and-outs from Stafford and I don't think our defense is good enough to force Washington to do the same.
This game could easily be ugly early. Which would lead to the inevitable Lions patented 'dramatic comeback followed by heartbreaking loss.' Or, this game could be competitive early, which would lead to the inevitable Lions patented 'collapse and/or crucial mistake which leads to heartbreaking loss.' Either way, the Lions should not be favored, and I expect my heart to be broken.
I'll take Washington and the points. I'm a fan, but I'm not a fool.
Dolphins (3-3)@ Bengals (2-4)
Predicted Line: CIN by 2
What I think the line SHOULD be: MIA by 5
Actual Line: CIN by 2
Ha! I nailed that line. And no I'm not cheating and looking ahead. I just figured that Cincy is routinely overrated and Miami continues to get no respect from the oddsmakers. Just because this game is in Ohio doesn't mean that Carson Palmer will suddenly be good again, unless he finds a time machine. Miami got screwed last week by the refs, and will be out for vengeance. I like everything about Miami in this game. I'll take the Fins and I'll temporarily make it the Upset of the Week.
Jacksonville (3-4) @ Dallas (1-5)
Predicted Line: DAL by 5 (remember, Romo is out)
Actual Line: DAL by 6.5
Hmm ... the line seems a little high for Jon Kitna, but perhaps it's a reflection of how bad Jacksonville is on the road. Their secondary is a joke, and they can't stop the run either. Dallas is beyond due for a big win. And I think this is the perfect week to bet big on them. Because once they go up, they're going to pour it on and win by 30 in an effort to shut up all their critics. At least that's what I see happening. I'll take Dallas +6.5 and I will make it a Lock.
Bills (0-6) @ Chiefs (4-2)
Predicted Line: KC by 8
Actual Line: KC by 8
The road to 0-16 continues, but is 8 points too high for an inconsistent offense led by Matt Cassel? I think so. I'll take Buffalo and the 8 points in another garbage-time, backdoor cover.
Panthers (1-5) @ Rams (3-4)
Predicted Line: STL by 3.5
Actual Line: STL by 3
I'm not surprised the Rams still aren't getting any respect. They were awful for 5 years and now they've won 3 games. We're supposed to make them 7 point favorites? No way. I think this line is totally fair. Carolina isn't as bad as their record indicates.
Okay, maybe they are. They have the league's worst offense ... and a pretty terrible defense.... but still. Aren't they due for a surprise win? And isn't St. Louis due for a letdown? I know this should be an obvious pick for the Rams given the surprisingly low line, but I actually like Carolina. Maybe not an outright win, but I think a 24-23 loss would be entirely possible. Especially with Steven Jackson questionable. I'll take Matt Moore and the pathetic Panthers. Yeesh. Why did I just do that?
Packers (4-3) @ Jets (5-1)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 4.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 6
As much as I would love Green Bay to win, I don't see it happening. With Finley and Grant and Lee out and with Driver limping, the offense is limited to Greg Jennings and a couple scrubs. Jennings will be blanketed by Revis, and unless James Jones has another 100 yard game, I don't know how the Packers are going to move the ball. Rodgers hasn't looked like himself the last 3 weeks. And the Jets are pretty dang good at rushing the passer.
And despite the fact that Green Bay is returning 3 injured starters on defense, I think New York's elite offensive line will carry LT to another solid game. It's only a matter of time until Sanchez has a 3 INT stinkbomb, but I don't think this is the game. So all that to say ... I think the Jets will win.
But what about the 6 point spread? Isn't that too high against an elite QB? Perhaps, but I think Rex Ryan is a definite run-up-the-score kind of guy, so perhaps not. I'll roll with the Jets. I guess. *EDIT* Upon further consideration, I think 6 points is too high and I've decided to switch to the Packers. Final score: Jets 31, Pack 27
Broncos (2-5) vs. 49ers (1-6) in LONDON
Predicted Line: DEN by 4
Actual Line: Pick Em
I feel bad for England. They get to watch David Carr get sacked 7 times and throw 3 INTs. I'll take Denver. **EDIT* Troy Smith, the former Heisman Trophy winner, is starting for San Fran, not Carr. That means fewer sacks and possibly fewer turnovers, but still an abysmal passing attack. Frank Gore should have a great game, but this line would have to be at least DEN by 3 for me to consider taking the Niners.
Titans (5-2) @ Chargers (2-5)
Predicted Line: TEN by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3.5
Surprising line, but it doesn't make me want to automatically take the Titans. It's do-or-die time for San Diego, and Gates is a little healthier, and Rivers is playing absolutely beautifully. Plus the Titans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on the West Coast. I will go with the Chargers. Why not?
Bucs (4-2) @ Arizona (3-3)
Predicted Line: TB by 2
Actual Line: ARZ by 3
Some really curious lines this week. Since Tampa is clearly the better team and they're getting 3 points, I'll go with them. Next.
Vikings (2-4) @ Patriots (5-1)
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5 (Is Favre playing??)
Actual Line: NE by 5.5
Well this is more like it. After the TB-ARZ game and the STL-CAR game and DEN-SF game, I was starting to wonder why I give a crap about the NFL. But this game - Randy Moss at Foxboro, Brett Favre against Tom Brady, Brett Favre against his own coach, Brett Favre against his own reputation, Brett Favre against sexual harrassment - promises to be another awesome and drama-filled Minnesota Vikings game.
Doesn't it just seem like whoever the Vikings play, there are 15 soap-opera storylines? Between Favre and Moss, aren't they the most interesting/distracting/polarizing QB-WR duo in NFL history? And meanwhile they've got arguably the best player in the whole dang NFL in the backfield and nobody even notices him. Oh by the way ... did you know that Adrian Peterson is on pace to rush for 1,824 yards?
This line makes it perfectly clear that Vegas, like me, expects Favre to play. There's no question; he'll play. That streak means everything to him.
But will he play like a hobbly senior citizen, or like an actual athlete? That's the all-important question. If Brett Favre had to run a mile right now, could he do it in under 10 minutes? Would he be able to run the 40 yard dash in less than 7 seconds? Those are honest questions. Is he even an 'athlete' anymore, or should we just refer to him as a professional 'icon?' It's kind of like Jack Nicholson. We still refer to him as a professional 'actor,' but he stopped acting 5 movies ago. Now he's just in movies, being himself. That's Favre. Going through the motions. No longer an athlete. Just a sad shell of his former self. Just retire already you bum!
Hmm ... while it is very tough to pick the Vikings after watching them suck last week, it's also hard to imagine them going 2-5 with AP and so much talent on defense. This game means everything to them, and it doesn't mean much to the Patriots. New England's defense has quietly been terrible this season (30th in pass yards, 32nd on 3rd downs) and Randy Moss should give 100% effort for the first time in about 8 years in a major revenge game. He might even change his name to Edmond Dantes this week.
If Childress is smart enough to give AP plenty of carries and give Brett plenty of 3rd and shorts, this could be a solid game for the Vikings' offense. Tom Brady just hasn't looked good without Moss. I don't know for sure that Minnesota will win, but I'm confident enough that I'll at least pick them to cover the 5.5 points.
Seahawks (4-2) @ Raiders (3-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 2.5
Despite winning by 45 last week, it's still tough to trust Jason Campbell and the Raiders. But I hate the NFC West and don't want to live in a world where Seattle is 5-2. Gotta pick Oakland.
Steelers (5-1) @ Saints (4-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2
Actual Line: Pick Em
This was the hardest line to predict, and I should have figured it would be a pick. Unsurprisingly, 82% of the Vegas action is on Pittsburgh, after the Saints got blasted by the Browns. But the Saints are still at home, and maybe they lost to the Browns because they simply overlooked them. I don't think Drew Brees will overlook the Steelers vaunted defense, especially on a national TV game in primetime.
I'm torn because my heart says Brees will bounce back and play great and win at home, but my head screams: "Madden Curse! Madden Curse!"
The truth is, curse or no curse, Brees has to figure out what to do against a defense with no less than 6 Pro Bowlers and no less than 2 All Pros. The Saints running game won't have a chance and that's really going to hurt. I don't think Drew throws another 4 INTs, but it's probably a 22-44 game for 310 yards and 2 TDs and 1 INT. And that's probably not going to be enough because Pittsburgh should be able to score more than 2 touchdowns.
So the pick should be Pittsburgh.
But when you combine the Homedog thing with the elite QB thing, it's just too much hesitation, so I'm going to go with New Orleans. They really need this win, and I really hate the Steelers.
Texans (4-2) @ Colts (4-2)
Predicted Line: Indy by 5
Actual Line: Indy by 5.5
By my count, there are three GREAT games this weekend - Vikings-Patriots, Steelers-Saints, and this one. Then there are two decent games - Green Bay-Jets and San Diego-Tennessee. The other 7 games are utterly terrible.
But for a Monday nighter, it doesn't get much better than this. Division rivals, elite teams, high-octane offenses, and a dash of revenge after the Texans whipped the Colts week 1.
On one hand, Manning has had 2 weeks to prepare for the league's worst secondary, and he never loses at home, and he especially never loses at home at night.
On the other hand, Manning just lost his favorite target, Dallas Clark, and also is without Collie and Gonzalez. And Houston plays Indy like it's their Super Bowl, and built their team specifically to compete against the Colts. These games are always close.
I'm certain that Manning will get the win, but I wish the line was a tad lower. I'd bet Indy if it were 3, or even 5; but 5.5? Ugh. That's just too many points to give against a team with such a good offense. I guess I'll take Houston to cover.
That's it for the picks. Now how about a week 8 fantasy football bonanza?
Week 8 Start Em and Sit Em
QBs
With Romo and Favre hurt, Ryan/Flacco/Cutler on byes and Brees & Rodgers playing against the league’s two best defenses, this will be another interesting and potentially strange week for fantasy QBs. Here are my rankings and such:
#1 option - Peyton Manning
He’s had 2 weeks to prepare for the league’s worst secondary. That is not fair.
Rounding out the top 5 –
2. Matt Schaub – trying to play catchup with Peyton Manning has led many a QB to fantasy glory.
3. Phillip Rivers – another desperation game against a lackluster secondary means yet another 300 yards and 3 TDs.
4. Donovan McNabb – it’s almost impossible to not to score 20+ fantasy points against the Lions.
5. Jon Kitna – at home against an awful secondary with tons of weapons and tons of motivation and an offensive coordinator who persistently forgets to run the ball. Kitna is on major sleeper alert for week 8! Pick him up now!
Worthwhile Starts:
Matt Stafford – he’ll have a good fantasy game in his return as he tries to keep up with the Redskins. Except about 20 fantasy points.
Tom Brady – don’t love him but wouldn’t bench him. I’ve got him ranked 9th.
Kyle Orton – despite the debacle last week I think you’ve gotta keep rolling with the neckbeard.
Risky Starts:
Aaron Rodgers – playing the rested Jets in New York. I don’t like this game at all for Rodgers. If you have any other options, at least consider it.
Drew Brees – the combination of Madden Curse and Steelers defense means beware.
Brett Favre – he’ll play, of course, but he won’t be very effective. You can find a better option on the waiver wire.
Carson Palmer – he keeps putting up amazing fantasy numbers on hail marys and in garbage time, but eventually that’ll stop. I think a pissed off Dolphins defense will hold him to less than 200 yards this week.
RBs
Platoons are infesting the league right now worse than ever. Guys who we thought were immune, like Jones-Drew and Ray Rice, are being vultured. It’s madness. Here are my week 8 rankings and such:
#1 option – Frank Gore
It’s yet another must win for San Fran, and Denver gave up 43 fantasy points to McFadden last week. Gotta think Gore racks up at least 150 total yards and a score.
Rounding out the top 5 -
2. Chris Johnson – he’s due for a 100 yard game and should score against the Chargers.
3. Arian Foster – last time he faced the Colts he had, what, 270 yards and 3 TDs?
4. Ryan Torain – see McNabb, Donovan.
5. Adrian Peterson – the only thing holding back AP from being the best fantasy player alive is Favre. Hopefully Favre's ankle issues allow AP to run more.
Worthwhile starts:
Jamaal Charles / Thomas Jones
Against Buffalo, you’ve got to have both of these guys in your lineup.
Darren McFadden
You can’t expect another 43 points, but you can’t bench him either. Expect a more modest 80 yards and 1 score.
Beanie Wells
Tampa can’t stop the run (157 yards per) and Beanie should get 20 touches.
Rashard Mendenhall
All running backs against New Orleans are pretty much must-start.
Risky starts:
LaDanian Tomlinson
I think it’s about time the Jets move to a LT/Greene platoon.
Steven Jackson
To quote the great Jack Johnson, “it seems to me that maybe, it pretty much always means no.” That’s how I feel about players deemed ‘questionable.’ Don’t count on SJax playing. And don’t try to be cute with backup Kenneth Darby.
Jahvid Best
It’s Stafford’s triumphant return which means too much punting and too many turnovers, and less than 80 yards for Jahvid unless he breaks a big play.
Cedric Benson
Miami is stout against the run and Cedric is pretty much running on fumes right now. He’s very close to washed up.
WRs
Three of the best fantasy receivers – Andre, Calvin, and Reggie – were on byes for week 7. This allowed Roddy White and Kenny Britt to go buck wild while other goofballs – like Lee Evans and David Gettis – also had huge games. This week, things should move back to a little more normalcy.
#1 option – Reggie Wayne.
With Dallas Clark out, Manning should throw to Wayne 15+ times. The Texans can’t afford to double team him. 100 yards and 1 TD is a minimum.
Rounding out the top 5:
2a. Andre Johnson – obviously you’ve got to play him every week.
2b. Roddy White - ditto.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Tampa really struggles to stop the pass and Fitz might finally have a worthwhile game.
4. Miles Austin – he’s been atrocious lately (40 yards the last two weeks) but against Jacksonville he’s a sure thing.
5. Pierre Garcon – with Clark and Collie out, Garcon is the #2 option for Peyton. And he’s a better deep threat than Wayne. He’s a definite must start.
Worthwhile starts:
Randy Moss
Never underestimate the impact of revenge.
Brandon Marshall
Not in the top five because it's a tough matchup against the Bengals, but he's a must-start.
Dwayne Bowe
Against Buffalo. Enough said.
Blair White
Indy's new 3rd receiver. It's a shot-in-the-dark for sure, but I think it's a pretty good shot.
Patrick Crayton
With Floyd still out, Crayton should be close to 100 yards.
Sidenote: so far this season, receivers named Steve Smith have outscored receivers named Mike Williams, 88 to 86. Stay tuned for updates on this epic battle. Incidentally, receivers named Roddy White have scored 102 fantasy points.
Risky starts:
Calvin Johnson
He'll be double teamed and Stafford stinks. I've got him ranked 16th.
Hines Ward
I think Mike Wallace is much more valuable right now.
Greg Jennings
Two words: Revis Island.
Kenny Britt
He's not in my top 20. I don't despite him, but let's not get carried away either.
TEs
This is by far the most volatile position in fantasy football this year. 2 of the top 4 TEs drafted (Clark and Finley) are both out for the year. Gates, Davis and Cooley have been hurt. Celek, Witten and Gonzalez have all disappoined. Zach Miller and Dustin Keller have been diamonds in the rough.
#1 option - Antonio Gates.
For lack of a better option. He's not 100%, but he wasn't last week and he had 11 fantasy points.
Rounding out the top 5:
2. Zach Miller - Seattle stinks against the pass.
3. Chris Cooley - tight ends love playing the Lions.
4. Vernon Davis - Despite David Carr, he'll probably have 50 yards or so.
5. Jason Witten - only because it's Jacksonville.
Worthwhile starts:
Tony Moeaki - he catches at least 3 balls a game, which is more than you can get from a lot of so-called starters
Dustin Keller - Sanchez really seems to love him.
Risky starts:
All tight ends except Gates, Miller and Cooley are risky this week.
DSTs
#1 option - Dallas Cowboys.
Yes, the same dorks who gave up 500 yards last week. I have zero faith in David Garrard and frankly didn't have a better option with the matchups.
Rounding out the top 5:
2. NY Jets - against Green Bay, they'll give up points but probably have several sacks.
3. Pittsburgh - Brees very rarely gets sacked, but I can't rank the Steelers any lower than 3.
4. Redskins - you know by now how I feel about Matt Stafford.
5. Green Bay - Sanchez is due for some mistakes or at least some sacks.
Worthwhile starts:
KC - you've got to love the Bills matchup, even though they carved up Baltimore last week.
Denver - the key to playing the matchup with DSTs is to pick on bad QBs. David Carr qualifies.
Risky starts:
Tennessee - They're being started in 82% of ESPN leagues despite playing against Phillip Rivers. That's odd.
Really, every defense is risky because every game is totally unpredictable. Just ask the Saints.
And on that ambiguous note, enjoy week 8 folks. Go Lions, and Go Pistons!!
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Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Monday, October 25, 2010
Week 7 Wrap Up
I won the A league (barring a 10 field goal game for the Giants) which brings me to a league-leading 6-1 record. I lost the B league (thanks in part to McFadden's 43 points on my bench).
I went 6-4 in the inconsequential leagues (unless Mario Manningham outscores Tony Romo by 22 in which case I went 5-5) largely because I played against either McFadden or Kenny Britt (225 yards, 3 TDs) in several leagues. Or in one case, both. I lost that game 114-182.
Most importantly, I was 9-5 on my picks against the spread.
Here are just a few brief thoughts on the games ...
Browns 30, Saints 17
In the shocker of the week, Drew Brees was terrible and the Browns defense (led by former Saint Scott Fujita) had 4 interceptions and scored twice. Apparently, the Madden Curse is no longer restricted to injuries. Now it's affecting accuracy and self-confidence. Yikes.
Ravens 34, Bills 31, OT
When I saw 'BUF 24 BAL 10' at the bottom of the TV, my first thought was, "Ugh, poor Buffalo fans. Blowing a two-TD lead is a sucky way to lose." Sure enough.
Does this make me panic about my Ravens Super Bowl pick? Nah, not quite. I think it's impressive that they came back when they could have just folded. And I think this will be the game people point to next offseason when they say, "The team that went 0-16 held a 2 touchdown lead against the eventual Super Bowl champions."
Falcons 39, Bengals 32
I watched most of this game and what I saw was Roddy White and Michael Turner both looking like top 5 overall players at their respective positions. Despite scoring 21 points in 3 minutes thanks to some fluky turnovers, the Bengals still couldn't get the win. Atlanta is the best team in the NFC right now.
Steelers 23, Dolphins 22
I had an argument this weekend with my 7 year old nephew about whether or not the Steelers are in fact "the awesomest team ever."
He asked me if I like the Steelers and I said "No, I like a team called the Lions," to which he replied, "The Lions stink!" I asked him if he had ever seen them play before, or if he knew any players on their team (not an obscene request, considering that my 9 year old cousin -a Lions fan- can rattle off the starting lineups of all 32 teams without breaking a sweat) and of course he could not. I then asked the obvious question, "How do you know they stink?"
His reply: "Because the Steelers RULE!"
That mindset literally describes every football fan in western Pennsylvania. My hatred for Pittsburgh has been renewed.
Chiefs 42, Jaguars 20
After back to back losses to Indy and Houston, the Chiefs were more than excited to play Todd Bouman and the lazy Jags. This game was actually close for a while, but then KC scored 21 straight in the 4th quarter and cruised. I still can't decide ... is KC good? Or is Jacksonville just bad? Or both?? Or neither????
Redskins 17, Bears 14
The Bears are now 3-4 (wait, I forgot, you need to catch the ball with both hands and then stand completely still in the endzone for 30 seconds untouched in order to have an official touchdown and complete the process) ...My bad. Let me start over...
The Bears are now 4-3 despite starting out 3-0. They are the worst team in the NFC. Two weeks ago they were the worst 4-1 team in NFL history; now they might be the worst 4-3 team in NFL history. Jay Cutler is bad. No, he's much worse than bad. He's poisonous. He's noxious. He's pernicious. He is utterly injurious and unapologetically deleterious.
Oh, by the way, congrats to DeAngelo Hall on his four INT game.
Panthers 23, 49ers 20
With that loss, San Francisco's season is officially over. At 1-6, they aren't coming back. Maybe they'll go 5-11, but that won't be enough to win the division. This was a game they couldn't afford to lose. Expect Mike Singletary to be the first coach fired this season, followed shortly by Wade Phillips.
Niners fans who were chanting for David Carr two weeks ago were horrified to see him actually play: Carr went 5 for 13 for 67 yards and 1 very ugly interception after Alex Smith hurt his shoulder. Carr's QB rating was an unbelievably low 23.6.
The good news is that Andrew Luck, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallet all look like legit NFL quarterbacks, and San Fran will likely pick in the top 5. Buffalo will draft first (Andrew Luck I think), and the only other potentially horrible teams who need a new QB are Arizona, Jacksonville and maybe Seattle. I think San Fran's chances of getting one of the 3 coveted rookies is about 75% after this loss.
Buccanneers 18, Rams 17
Both teams were actually pretty horrible but St. Louis was a little bit more horrible. And uh, don't look now, but Josh Freeman might be clutch.
Titans 37, Eagles 19
Kenny Britt was supposed to miss this game due to some bar fighting incident. Instead, he went crazy for 225 yards and 3 TDs as Tennessee scored 27 points in the 4th quarter in a dramatic comeback win. Chris Johnson had only 66 rushing yards.
The Eagles have an A- offense but a D+ defense.
Seahawks 22, Cardinals 10
If Chicago is the worst 4-3 team in history, then Seattle is surely the worst 4-2 team in history. I hate the NFC West.
Patriots 23, Chargers 20
Every year, the Chargers start out 2-5 and make the playoffs. But with injuries and holdouts taking their top 4 receiving targets out of the gameplan and with no semblance of a running attack, is it time to panic?
No, I don't think so. I still think San Diego has a 10-6 team (maybe 9-7) and should win the division. The people who should be panicking are Pats fans. New England was outgained by almost 200 total yards and won thanks to dumb penalties and a missed field goal. That won't get it done in the playoffs.
If San Diego loses their next two games (Tennessee, Houston - a definite possibility) you can bet that Norv Turner is fired.
Raiders 59, Broncos 14
My 'Lock of the Week' looks pretty backwards. What the heck happened? I mean, besides Darren McFadden?
Oakland racked up more than 500 total yards and scored the most points in franchise history. Usually I'm not a big fan of running up the score, but on the road against a hated division rival with an arrogant coach who was arrogant enough to draft Tim Tebow in the first round? Yes, I think it's okay. Hopefully this springboards Oakland into competitiveness. For some reason I like Oakland.
Packers 28, Vikings 24
Ugh. I watched most of this game for fantasy purposes (screw you Randy Moss) and was utterly disgusted by everything I saw. Brett Favre didn't play like a 41 year old. He played like a 61 year old. Limping, hobbling, looking like a complete fool. Throwing interceptions straight into the arms of linebackers, not once, not twice, but three times in a span of 7 pass attempts. Completely wasting a great performance by Adrian Peterson, who really looks like he might be the best running back since Barry Sanders. I am absolutely positive that the Vikings would have won this game with Tavaris Jackson at quarterback. The Packers seemed determined to lose, but Favre was more determined.
This was a typical Vikings possession:
AP runs for 8 yards
AP runs for 3 yards
AP runs for 15 yards
AP runs for 7 yards
AP runs for 5 yards
Favre throws a pick
With Tavaris Jackson, at least you have the threat of an evasive quarterback and can keep passing plays alive a la Michael Vick. This gives Harvin and Moss time to run around and create big pass plays. It really would work. The only question is Tavaris's accuracy. But can it be any worse than Favre at this stage? I don't think so.
Between the 2-4 record, the QB rating of 68, the sex-phone scandal, the injury concerns to the ankle and arm, the knowledge that he's going to retire after this season anyway, and the fact that everyone hates him, I think the best move for the Vikings right now is to bench Favre for Tavaris Jackson. Which of course would lead to Favre being placed on IR with an ego injury and ending his career. I think it's time for Minnesota to cut their losses and try to make a playoff push with Tavaris.
Every starting quarterback in the NFL has a better passer rating than Brett Favre except Derek Anderson and Jimmy Claussen. That means it's time to call it quits.
Giants 41, Cowboys 35
I went 6-4 in the inconsequential leagues (unless Mario Manningham outscores Tony Romo by 22 in which case I went 5-5) largely because I played against either McFadden or Kenny Britt (225 yards, 3 TDs) in several leagues. Or in one case, both. I lost that game 114-182.
Most importantly, I was 9-5 on my picks against the spread.
Here are just a few brief thoughts on the games ...
Browns 30, Saints 17
In the shocker of the week, Drew Brees was terrible and the Browns defense (led by former Saint Scott Fujita) had 4 interceptions and scored twice. Apparently, the Madden Curse is no longer restricted to injuries. Now it's affecting accuracy and self-confidence. Yikes.
Ravens 34, Bills 31, OT
When I saw 'BUF 24 BAL 10' at the bottom of the TV, my first thought was, "Ugh, poor Buffalo fans. Blowing a two-TD lead is a sucky way to lose." Sure enough.
Does this make me panic about my Ravens Super Bowl pick? Nah, not quite. I think it's impressive that they came back when they could have just folded. And I think this will be the game people point to next offseason when they say, "The team that went 0-16 held a 2 touchdown lead against the eventual Super Bowl champions."
Falcons 39, Bengals 32
I watched most of this game and what I saw was Roddy White and Michael Turner both looking like top 5 overall players at their respective positions. Despite scoring 21 points in 3 minutes thanks to some fluky turnovers, the Bengals still couldn't get the win. Atlanta is the best team in the NFC right now.
Steelers 23, Dolphins 22
I had an argument this weekend with my 7 year old nephew about whether or not the Steelers are in fact "the awesomest team ever."
He asked me if I like the Steelers and I said "No, I like a team called the Lions," to which he replied, "The Lions stink!" I asked him if he had ever seen them play before, or if he knew any players on their team (not an obscene request, considering that my 9 year old cousin -a Lions fan- can rattle off the starting lineups of all 32 teams without breaking a sweat) and of course he could not. I then asked the obvious question, "How do you know they stink?"
His reply: "Because the Steelers RULE!"
That mindset literally describes every football fan in western Pennsylvania. My hatred for Pittsburgh has been renewed.
Chiefs 42, Jaguars 20
After back to back losses to Indy and Houston, the Chiefs were more than excited to play Todd Bouman and the lazy Jags. This game was actually close for a while, but then KC scored 21 straight in the 4th quarter and cruised. I still can't decide ... is KC good? Or is Jacksonville just bad? Or both?? Or neither????
Redskins 17, Bears 14
The Bears are now 3-4 (wait, I forgot, you need to catch the ball with both hands and then stand completely still in the endzone for 30 seconds untouched in order to have an official touchdown and complete the process) ...My bad. Let me start over...
The Bears are now 4-3 despite starting out 3-0. They are the worst team in the NFC. Two weeks ago they were the worst 4-1 team in NFL history; now they might be the worst 4-3 team in NFL history. Jay Cutler is bad. No, he's much worse than bad. He's poisonous. He's noxious. He's pernicious. He is utterly injurious and unapologetically deleterious.
Oh, by the way, congrats to DeAngelo Hall on his four INT game.
Panthers 23, 49ers 20
With that loss, San Francisco's season is officially over. At 1-6, they aren't coming back. Maybe they'll go 5-11, but that won't be enough to win the division. This was a game they couldn't afford to lose. Expect Mike Singletary to be the first coach fired this season, followed shortly by Wade Phillips.
Niners fans who were chanting for David Carr two weeks ago were horrified to see him actually play: Carr went 5 for 13 for 67 yards and 1 very ugly interception after Alex Smith hurt his shoulder. Carr's QB rating was an unbelievably low 23.6.
The good news is that Andrew Luck, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallet all look like legit NFL quarterbacks, and San Fran will likely pick in the top 5. Buffalo will draft first (Andrew Luck I think), and the only other potentially horrible teams who need a new QB are Arizona, Jacksonville and maybe Seattle. I think San Fran's chances of getting one of the 3 coveted rookies is about 75% after this loss.
Buccanneers 18, Rams 17
Both teams were actually pretty horrible but St. Louis was a little bit more horrible. And uh, don't look now, but Josh Freeman might be clutch.
Titans 37, Eagles 19
Kenny Britt was supposed to miss this game due to some bar fighting incident. Instead, he went crazy for 225 yards and 3 TDs as Tennessee scored 27 points in the 4th quarter in a dramatic comeback win. Chris Johnson had only 66 rushing yards.
The Eagles have an A- offense but a D+ defense.
Seahawks 22, Cardinals 10
If Chicago is the worst 4-3 team in history, then Seattle is surely the worst 4-2 team in history. I hate the NFC West.
Patriots 23, Chargers 20
Every year, the Chargers start out 2-5 and make the playoffs. But with injuries and holdouts taking their top 4 receiving targets out of the gameplan and with no semblance of a running attack, is it time to panic?
No, I don't think so. I still think San Diego has a 10-6 team (maybe 9-7) and should win the division. The people who should be panicking are Pats fans. New England was outgained by almost 200 total yards and won thanks to dumb penalties and a missed field goal. That won't get it done in the playoffs.
If San Diego loses their next two games (Tennessee, Houston - a definite possibility) you can bet that Norv Turner is fired.
Raiders 59, Broncos 14
My 'Lock of the Week' looks pretty backwards. What the heck happened? I mean, besides Darren McFadden?
Oakland racked up more than 500 total yards and scored the most points in franchise history. Usually I'm not a big fan of running up the score, but on the road against a hated division rival with an arrogant coach who was arrogant enough to draft Tim Tebow in the first round? Yes, I think it's okay. Hopefully this springboards Oakland into competitiveness. For some reason I like Oakland.
Packers 28, Vikings 24
Ugh. I watched most of this game for fantasy purposes (screw you Randy Moss) and was utterly disgusted by everything I saw. Brett Favre didn't play like a 41 year old. He played like a 61 year old. Limping, hobbling, looking like a complete fool. Throwing interceptions straight into the arms of linebackers, not once, not twice, but three times in a span of 7 pass attempts. Completely wasting a great performance by Adrian Peterson, who really looks like he might be the best running back since Barry Sanders. I am absolutely positive that the Vikings would have won this game with Tavaris Jackson at quarterback. The Packers seemed determined to lose, but Favre was more determined.
This was a typical Vikings possession:
AP runs for 8 yards
AP runs for 3 yards
AP runs for 15 yards
AP runs for 7 yards
AP runs for 5 yards
Favre throws a pick
With Tavaris Jackson, at least you have the threat of an evasive quarterback and can keep passing plays alive a la Michael Vick. This gives Harvin and Moss time to run around and create big pass plays. It really would work. The only question is Tavaris's accuracy. But can it be any worse than Favre at this stage? I don't think so.
Between the 2-4 record, the QB rating of 68, the sex-phone scandal, the injury concerns to the ankle and arm, the knowledge that he's going to retire after this season anyway, and the fact that everyone hates him, I think the best move for the Vikings right now is to bench Favre for Tavaris Jackson. Which of course would lead to Favre being placed on IR with an ego injury and ending his career. I think it's time for Minnesota to cut their losses and try to make a playoff push with Tavaris.
Every starting quarterback in the NFL has a better passer rating than Brett Favre except Derek Anderson and Jimmy Claussen. That means it's time to call it quits.
Giants 41, Cowboys 35
Eli threw 2 interceptions on his first 4 passes and Dallas jumped out to a 10-0 lead in about 5 minutes. Then I fell asleep on the couch. Eli's passer rating was a 2.6, the lowest I've ever seen in my life.
When I woke up this morning, Eli had thrown for 306 yards and 4 TDs and brought his passer rating up to 100.4. Hakeem Nicks was a monster, with 14 targets, 9 catches, 108 yards, and 2 TDs. Steve Smith was also studly with 9 catches for 101 yards and a score. Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 126; Jacobs ran for 75; the Giants finished with 497 yards of total offense.
In short, the Cowboys suck. They're now 1-5, and Romo is out for 6 weeks with a broken collerbone. Trying to lead the heroic comeback for the Boys will be Jon Kitna, or as he's known in my household, Jon Shitna.
Dallas had less turnovers, less penalties, and better special teams play than the Giants, but ultimately, they didn't win simply because they sucked at defense. They couldn't stop the run or the pass; they ran the ball only 13 times for 41 yards; Miles Austin had only 3 catches for 38 yards and Roy Williams was catchless. Dez Bryant scored 3 times, including a very impressive 93 yard punt return, but it wasn't nearly enough.
Dallas is the most talented 1-5 team in NFL history, and Wade Phillips is currently updating his resume as we speak.
Picks Recap:
Overall: 54-48-2
Locks: 3-3-1
Upset: 4-3
Oh yeah, basketball season starts Tuesday.
I picked 10th in my fantasy league and took Deron Williams and then Chris Bosh on the way back. I got Kevin Love (he's going to lead the NBA in rebounding - you heard it hear first), Blake Griffin (I predict a 20-12 season) and Marcus Camby (10 boards, 2 blocks) in my frontcourt, and along with Williams I have Raymond Felton (new Knicks point guard, should see 10 assists per game in Mike Dantoni's system) and 76ers rookie Evan Turner (hoping for a 15-6-4 stat line) in the backcourt. Trevor Ariza (Hornets) and Carl Landry (Kings) are my sharpshooters and I'm hoping they'll contribute heavily in the 3s category; they both play with elite point guards so that should help. As far as depth, I've got Robin Lopez (fills the gap for Amare on the Suns) and JJ Hickson (somebody's gotta score on Cleveland) as well as Grant Hill (solid 12 ppg) and my super sleeper, Beno Udrih, a Yugoslavian shooting guard on the Kings who might put up 15 pgg and 5 apg.
Do I have the sexiest team in fantasy basketball history? No. But do I have an effective, efficient and potentially championship-caliber team? Absolutely.
Stay tuned for week 8 picks, Lions stuff, and whatever else.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Week 7 Picks
Firstly, I just want to say that my fantasy Bball draft has been postponed until tonight at 10pm, so results will be up sometime tomorrow maybe? Also it's been turned into a keeper league; I can keep 3 guys for next year. Which means I'll be drafting John Wall and Blake Griffin about 5 rounds too early. On to the week 7 picks!
Bengals (2-3) @ Falcons (4-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 3.5
Okay guys, this is the part where I try to explain why I'm 9-17-2 against the spread the last two weeks. I try to explain all the fluky games that didn't go my way because of missed field goals or bad penalties or simply because I was misinformed. The truth is, it's hard to pick against the spread, and this season has been wacky. That said, I think I've used two primary criteria for picking games which have proven to be faulty:
1) The more desperate team will win. That has been proven false.
2) The more talented team will win. Also false, and I'm starting to wonder if the teams I thought were stacked with talent are actually just stacked with big reputations.
As I throw out those two ideas and try to pick more based on recent trends and common sense, I think my picks will at least climb back over .500.
Let's start with what looks like an easy one and a line that's questionably low. Atlanta is rock solid at home, and this low line is a direct reflection of them being blown out at Philly last week. I'm not buying too much into that game. Kevin Kolb is underrated and Philly has a kick-butt offense. Atlanta is still solid.
I don't buy into Cincinnati at all. Carson Palmer's arm strength is all but gone, but he still tries to float deep balls regularly and he's not having much success at all. Matt Ryan is 11-3 ATS at home, and Mike Smith is 10-2 ATS following a loss. It all adds up to a Falcons victory, +3.5.
Redskins (3-3) @ Bears (4-2)
Predicted Line: CHI by 2
Actual Line: CHI by 3
By losing last week to Seattle at home, Jay Cutler proved that he's still not a good NFL quarterback, he proved what an idiot Mike Martz still is, and he proved that Chicago is not a playoff team. But, he also successfully made this line curiously low. Washington isn't playing well right now. They can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass,and they don't have the personnel to exploit Chicago's biggest weakness - pass protection. I see a big game coming for Matt Forte, and the Bears defense/special teams keeps them alive. All they've got to do is win by a field goal, so I'll take the Bears.
Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Dang you Jay Cutler, why do I keep forgetting how terrible you are!?! I will not take the Bears. I'll take the Redskins -3.
Eagles (4-2) @ Titans (4-2)
Predicted Line: TEN by 4
Actual Line: TEN by 3
Okay, so apparently all the games are going to be lines of 3, no matter who's playing. All right then.
Both of these teams are better than people realize, and this game should be pretty awesome. Kevin Kolb is running Reid's west-coast offense to near perfection right now, and although he'll be without DeSean Jackson, he's still got a nearly identical player in Maclin, not to mention a perfect west-coast tight end in Celek.
Tennessee is coming off a MNF blowout and Vince Young is slightly hurt, which might be the best thing that could happen to the Titans offense. Kerry Collins is a better game-manager. But Young is expected to play. Who knows. Either way, Chris Johnson should have his way against Ernie Sims and the lackluster, banged-up Philly defense.
I think this looks like a shootout (which of course means it's be 10-13) but will go with the Titans +3.
Jaguars (3-3) @ Chiefs (3-2)
Predicted Line: KC by 5
Actual Line: (No line - Garrard)
David Garrard hasn't been practicing since his concussion last week, and is unlikely to play. Compounding to the Jags problems, backup Trent Edwards has a thumb sprain and might play, but might not. The third stringer is Todd Bouman, the notorious 38 year old from St. Cloud College. He's currently on his fifth separate stint with the Jaguars. Must be related to the GM or something.
Anyhow, the current Vegas spread is set for 7 and that's assuming Garrard doesn't play, which is a safe bet. This is a lovely week for me to be playing against Maurice Jones-Drew in fantasy; no competent QB means 9 Chiefs in the box which means MJD continues to struggle.
These are probably the two teams I know the least about. I can't get any kind of read on Jacksonville. Beat the Colts, then lose at home by 30 two weeks later. Who are they?
Seven points is a lot, but I'll take KC.
Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (3-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3
Another three point line, but this one is right on. And I'm thinking this fits the classic "Letdown game for the rapist QB returning from suspension, while the defensive leader who just got fined $75,000 for trying to kill two guys on the sucky rival team takes the day off and plays hands-off to make a point to the NFL that they are interfering too much" ... so I'll take Miami -3.
Quick note on the Steelers-Browns "rivalry,' because it's been a while since I vehemently raged against the stupid idiot Steelers. Last week, my wife (who spent 5 years claiming to be a diehard Steelers fan before I unearthed the obvious lie) asked me who the Steelers were playing. It's a typical Sunday question. Usually around 3pm when the Steelers game is practically over, she suddenly REALLY cares if they win or lose. Last week, I replied unimportantly "The Browns."
"Ugh!" she yelled in disgust. "We HATE the Browns!"
That's when I went off.
"You would!" I yelled. "Only you Steelers fans would pursue a rivalry with the worst team in the AFC, the perennially pathetic losers who haven't won a championship in their city in over 50 years and are no threat to you whatsoever! You could be rivals with Baltimore, or Cincinnati, but NO! You egomaniacal jerks have to beat the snot out of Cleveland twice a year and call it your rivalry! You make me sick! That'd be like the Lions saying their big 'rival' is Grand Valley and beating the crap out of them while the fans go crazy and congratulate each other on their awesomeness. You make me sick!"
She was not impressed by my unexpected rage, but merely replied, "It's because Cleveland is an hour away from Pittsburgh."
"Oh yeah.... forgot about that. Sorry."
That pretty much sums things up in a nutshell.
Uh, I'll take Miami -3.
Browns (1-5) @ Saints (4-2)
Predicted Line: NO by 13.5
Actual Line: NO by 13
Finally a line of more than 3! Wish I could just pick the Saints and call it a win for me, but that's the stinking thing about the spread picks. I miss the old days where this was a gimmie.
For this line, I'm leaning towards the Browns. As I've said before, Sean Peyton doesn't like to run up the score, and prefers to win gut-it-out games. On top of that, Colt McCoy looked pretty impressive against Pittsburgh last week in the big rivalry game and will get another start. What a gross way to begin an NFL career: at Pittsburgh (best defense ever), at New Orleans (best fans & Super Bowl champs). I do not envy Colt McCoy.
I do, however, love having Peyton Hillis on my fantasy team. Looks like another TD and 100 yards for me. I'll go Cleveland -13.
Rams (3-3) @ Buccaneers (3-2)
Predicted Line: Bucs by 4
Actual Line: Bucs by 3
Don't look now, but both of these teams have three wins. Actually, you can look now. There's no reason not to. Look whenever you want.
Can you believe it? Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman, both NFL quarterbacks with better records than Brett Favre, Tony Romo, and Phillip Rivers. Weird. They've beaten good teams too. Dare I say, both of these teams are solid.
But the major difference to me is Steven Jackson. He's quietly having an MVP season and should have zero problems running against Tampa Bay. He gives Sam Bradford a major luxury every single week - no dime coverage on 1st and 2nd down. I think the key stat in this game is that Tampa is 1-9 ATS at home under Raheem Morris. Everybody's going to point to St. Louis's lousy road record, but what about Tampa's lousy home record?
Rams are the better team (I think), so I'll take them -3. Sidenote: I picked up Josh Freeman during Peyton Manning's bye week. Hoping for at least 1 TD and 150 yards. All I need is 10 fantasy points and I'll be happy. Please Josh, I'm 5-1 and can't afford for you to make me lose singlehandedly. Don't mess this up.
49ers (1-5) @ Panthers (0-5)
Predicted Line: SF by 4
Actual Line: SF by 3
Of course, what else would the line be. That's six games with a line of 3. Insane.
Well this is certainly the Crap Bowl of the season. Could either of these teams possibly be more disappointing? No. No they could not.
I still like San Francisco's chances to win the NFC West at 6-10, but only in spite of Alex Smith, who has probably become the worst starting QB in the NFL outside of Buffalo. Well, unless you count Carolina QBs in that mix. They have been completely and totally worthless. Jimmy Claussen is headed back to the bench for this game, which means Matt Moore will be the one doing nothing. The running backs have both been disastrous (which I blame entirely on LT Jeff Otah's injury and think things will change when he comes back) and there's really no way anyone can bet on Carolina right now. I've gotta take San Fran +3.
Bills (0-5) @ Ravens (4-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 15
Actual Line: BAL by 13
Man, it seems like Vegas is getting really uncreative. Close games get a line of 3 and blowouts get a line of 13. That's the general rule. OK, well I guess I'll take Baltimore.
Cardinals (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4
Actual Line: SEA by 5.5
Ah yes, the epic Battle for NFC West Supremacy!!
Uh, geez. This game promises to be ugly and hideous and full of stupidity. The best player on the field (Larry Fitzgerald) looks like he was ready to quit about 4 weeks ago. The next best player on the field .... I have no idea. Maybe Lofa Tatupu? Sheesh. I gotta think it'll be a close game and Arizona will cover.
Patriots (4-1) @ Chargers (2-4)
Predicted Line: SD by 1
Actual Line: SD by 3
My gut reaction is to take the Chargers because of how badly they need to win. I'm thinking, the Pats are flying cross-country and coming off an emotional win. I'm thinking the Chargers need this game after losing to St. Louis and will be fired up at home. But then the following brilliant quote entered my brain, and I'd like to share it with you.
"The team that NEEDS to win probably isn't that good to begin with."
Brilliant, yes?
On that note, realizing how bad San Diego's defense is and how generally amazing Tom Brady is, not to mention the injuries to Gates and Floyd (both on my fantasy team - ARGHGHG!!), I am going to pick New England to win outright and call it the Upset of the Week.
Raiders (2-4) @ Broncos (2-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6
Actual Line: DEN by 8
Duh, I don't know what I was thinking guessing 6. Bruce Gradkowski is still out with a shoulder, and Jason Campbell has a torn knee of some kind. I completely forgot that Kyle Boller is starting for the Raiders. Folks, you might want to check if the Denver defense is available in your fantasy league and pick them up right away. If I didn't have Baltimore and Pittsburgh, I would have already done so.
Can't imagine the Raiders staying competitive against the well-oiled Kyle Orton Machine. Nnamdia Asmougha will cover Brandon Lloyd to death, but that will leave Royal, Williams, Gaffney and the lot to gain 300+ yards. Hopefully Knowshon Moreno will have a worthwhile fantasy game for me too. He certainly should. Oakland can't stop the run.
It's always risky to pick favorites to cover spreads of 7+, especially teams as fundamentally flawed as Denver, but it's also pretty risky to roll with Kyle Boller. I'll take Denver +8. In fact, make it this week's LOCK.
Vikings (2-3) @ Packers (3-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 2.5
Hmm... so what should I say about Brett Favre? The 19 years in Green Bay, the sex-phone scandal, some witty Dockers joke? He's just too easy of a target right now.
This is a definite 'stay-away' game when it comes to betting. Not that I bet real money. But you know, if I did. There's no telling with either of these teams, especially in the emotional Favre Bowl where 50% of the fans will be unsure who to cheer for.
Green Bay has been decimated with injuries - Ryan Grant, JerMichael Finley, Clay Matthews, Atari Bigby, Ryan Pickett, Mark Tauscher - and has relied too heavily on Aaron Rodgers to carry them. He hasn't really been up for it. They've lost two consecutive overtime games, though, so let's be honest: Green Bay could easily be 5-1.
Minnesota hasn't had injuries - they've just been Favred to death week after week. The dude is forcing throws and looking like a 41 year old. He's staring down receivers - something he NEVER did in his prime - and losing velocity. He's just flatout playing badly. And the worst problem is, Adrian Peterson is being underused. He ranks 8th in the NFL in carries and is 13th among RBs in receiving targets. That's too low for a player as good as AP.
Both of these teams are flawed, but also extremely dangerous. Don't forget about the Randy Moss - Charles Woodson matchup.
I think injuries are the difference in this game, and Minnesota eeks it out. You just can't lose 6 of your 10 best players to injuries and expect to keep winning. I'll take the Vikes -2.5
Giants (4-2) @ Cowboys (1-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3
Hmmm ...
Whatever. I have no chance of picking this game right. I either take Dallas because they're 'desperate' and they lose AGAIN because they're 'stupid', or I pick New York because Dallas keeps beating themselves with idiotic penalties and turnovers and then Dallas fixes all their problems and wins. Either way, I'll pick this game wrong. Only one way to choose. Heads is Dallas, tails is New York.
....
And tails it is. Go Giants!
Stay tuned for embarassing results and thoughts on the Lions next game, at home against Washington. Stafford will be ready to go by then. Is that a good thing?
Bengals (2-3) @ Falcons (4-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 3.5
Okay guys, this is the part where I try to explain why I'm 9-17-2 against the spread the last two weeks. I try to explain all the fluky games that didn't go my way because of missed field goals or bad penalties or simply because I was misinformed. The truth is, it's hard to pick against the spread, and this season has been wacky. That said, I think I've used two primary criteria for picking games which have proven to be faulty:
1) The more desperate team will win. That has been proven false.
2) The more talented team will win. Also false, and I'm starting to wonder if the teams I thought were stacked with talent are actually just stacked with big reputations.
As I throw out those two ideas and try to pick more based on recent trends and common sense, I think my picks will at least climb back over .500.
Let's start with what looks like an easy one and a line that's questionably low. Atlanta is rock solid at home, and this low line is a direct reflection of them being blown out at Philly last week. I'm not buying too much into that game. Kevin Kolb is underrated and Philly has a kick-butt offense. Atlanta is still solid.
I don't buy into Cincinnati at all. Carson Palmer's arm strength is all but gone, but he still tries to float deep balls regularly and he's not having much success at all. Matt Ryan is 11-3 ATS at home, and Mike Smith is 10-2 ATS following a loss. It all adds up to a Falcons victory, +3.5.
Redskins (3-3) @ Bears (4-2)
Predicted Line: CHI by 2
Actual Line: CHI by 3
By losing last week to Seattle at home, Jay Cutler proved that he's still not a good NFL quarterback, he proved what an idiot Mike Martz still is, and he proved that Chicago is not a playoff team. But, he also successfully made this line curiously low. Washington isn't playing well right now. They can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass,and they don't have the personnel to exploit Chicago's biggest weakness - pass protection. I see a big game coming for Matt Forte, and the Bears defense/special teams keeps them alive. All they've got to do is win by a field goal, so I'll take the Bears.
Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Dang you Jay Cutler, why do I keep forgetting how terrible you are!?! I will not take the Bears. I'll take the Redskins -3.
Eagles (4-2) @ Titans (4-2)
Predicted Line: TEN by 4
Actual Line: TEN by 3
Okay, so apparently all the games are going to be lines of 3, no matter who's playing. All right then.
Both of these teams are better than people realize, and this game should be pretty awesome. Kevin Kolb is running Reid's west-coast offense to near perfection right now, and although he'll be without DeSean Jackson, he's still got a nearly identical player in Maclin, not to mention a perfect west-coast tight end in Celek.
Tennessee is coming off a MNF blowout and Vince Young is slightly hurt, which might be the best thing that could happen to the Titans offense. Kerry Collins is a better game-manager. But Young is expected to play. Who knows. Either way, Chris Johnson should have his way against Ernie Sims and the lackluster, banged-up Philly defense.
I think this looks like a shootout (which of course means it's be 10-13) but will go with the Titans +3.
Jaguars (3-3) @ Chiefs (3-2)
Predicted Line: KC by 5
Actual Line: (No line - Garrard)
David Garrard hasn't been practicing since his concussion last week, and is unlikely to play. Compounding to the Jags problems, backup Trent Edwards has a thumb sprain and might play, but might not. The third stringer is Todd Bouman, the notorious 38 year old from St. Cloud College. He's currently on his fifth separate stint with the Jaguars. Must be related to the GM or something.
Anyhow, the current Vegas spread is set for 7 and that's assuming Garrard doesn't play, which is a safe bet. This is a lovely week for me to be playing against Maurice Jones-Drew in fantasy; no competent QB means 9 Chiefs in the box which means MJD continues to struggle.
These are probably the two teams I know the least about. I can't get any kind of read on Jacksonville. Beat the Colts, then lose at home by 30 two weeks later. Who are they?
Seven points is a lot, but I'll take KC.
Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (3-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3
Another three point line, but this one is right on. And I'm thinking this fits the classic "Letdown game for the rapist QB returning from suspension, while the defensive leader who just got fined $75,000 for trying to kill two guys on the sucky rival team takes the day off and plays hands-off to make a point to the NFL that they are interfering too much" ... so I'll take Miami -3.
Quick note on the Steelers-Browns "rivalry,' because it's been a while since I vehemently raged against the stupid idiot Steelers. Last week, my wife (who spent 5 years claiming to be a diehard Steelers fan before I unearthed the obvious lie) asked me who the Steelers were playing. It's a typical Sunday question. Usually around 3pm when the Steelers game is practically over, she suddenly REALLY cares if they win or lose. Last week, I replied unimportantly "The Browns."
"Ugh!" she yelled in disgust. "We HATE the Browns!"
That's when I went off.
"You would!" I yelled. "Only you Steelers fans would pursue a rivalry with the worst team in the AFC, the perennially pathetic losers who haven't won a championship in their city in over 50 years and are no threat to you whatsoever! You could be rivals with Baltimore, or Cincinnati, but NO! You egomaniacal jerks have to beat the snot out of Cleveland twice a year and call it your rivalry! You make me sick! That'd be like the Lions saying their big 'rival' is Grand Valley and beating the crap out of them while the fans go crazy and congratulate each other on their awesomeness. You make me sick!"
She was not impressed by my unexpected rage, but merely replied, "It's because Cleveland is an hour away from Pittsburgh."
"Oh yeah.... forgot about that. Sorry."
That pretty much sums things up in a nutshell.
Uh, I'll take Miami -3.
Browns (1-5) @ Saints (4-2)
Predicted Line: NO by 13.5
Actual Line: NO by 13
Finally a line of more than 3! Wish I could just pick the Saints and call it a win for me, but that's the stinking thing about the spread picks. I miss the old days where this was a gimmie.
For this line, I'm leaning towards the Browns. As I've said before, Sean Peyton doesn't like to run up the score, and prefers to win gut-it-out games. On top of that, Colt McCoy looked pretty impressive against Pittsburgh last week in the big rivalry game and will get another start. What a gross way to begin an NFL career: at Pittsburgh (best defense ever), at New Orleans (best fans & Super Bowl champs). I do not envy Colt McCoy.
I do, however, love having Peyton Hillis on my fantasy team. Looks like another TD and 100 yards for me. I'll go Cleveland -13.
Rams (3-3) @ Buccaneers (3-2)
Predicted Line: Bucs by 4
Actual Line: Bucs by 3
Don't look now, but both of these teams have three wins. Actually, you can look now. There's no reason not to. Look whenever you want.
Can you believe it? Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman, both NFL quarterbacks with better records than Brett Favre, Tony Romo, and Phillip Rivers. Weird. They've beaten good teams too. Dare I say, both of these teams are solid.
But the major difference to me is Steven Jackson. He's quietly having an MVP season and should have zero problems running against Tampa Bay. He gives Sam Bradford a major luxury every single week - no dime coverage on 1st and 2nd down. I think the key stat in this game is that Tampa is 1-9 ATS at home under Raheem Morris. Everybody's going to point to St. Louis's lousy road record, but what about Tampa's lousy home record?
Rams are the better team (I think), so I'll take them -3. Sidenote: I picked up Josh Freeman during Peyton Manning's bye week. Hoping for at least 1 TD and 150 yards. All I need is 10 fantasy points and I'll be happy. Please Josh, I'm 5-1 and can't afford for you to make me lose singlehandedly. Don't mess this up.
49ers (1-5) @ Panthers (0-5)
Predicted Line: SF by 4
Actual Line: SF by 3
Of course, what else would the line be. That's six games with a line of 3. Insane.
Well this is certainly the Crap Bowl of the season. Could either of these teams possibly be more disappointing? No. No they could not.
I still like San Francisco's chances to win the NFC West at 6-10, but only in spite of Alex Smith, who has probably become the worst starting QB in the NFL outside of Buffalo. Well, unless you count Carolina QBs in that mix. They have been completely and totally worthless. Jimmy Claussen is headed back to the bench for this game, which means Matt Moore will be the one doing nothing. The running backs have both been disastrous (which I blame entirely on LT Jeff Otah's injury and think things will change when he comes back) and there's really no way anyone can bet on Carolina right now. I've gotta take San Fran +3.
Bills (0-5) @ Ravens (4-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 15
Actual Line: BAL by 13
Man, it seems like Vegas is getting really uncreative. Close games get a line of 3 and blowouts get a line of 13. That's the general rule. OK, well I guess I'll take Baltimore.
Cardinals (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4
Actual Line: SEA by 5.5
Ah yes, the epic Battle for NFC West Supremacy!!
Uh, geez. This game promises to be ugly and hideous and full of stupidity. The best player on the field (Larry Fitzgerald) looks like he was ready to quit about 4 weeks ago. The next best player on the field .... I have no idea. Maybe Lofa Tatupu? Sheesh. I gotta think it'll be a close game and Arizona will cover.
Patriots (4-1) @ Chargers (2-4)
Predicted Line: SD by 1
Actual Line: SD by 3
My gut reaction is to take the Chargers because of how badly they need to win. I'm thinking, the Pats are flying cross-country and coming off an emotional win. I'm thinking the Chargers need this game after losing to St. Louis and will be fired up at home. But then the following brilliant quote entered my brain, and I'd like to share it with you.
"The team that NEEDS to win probably isn't that good to begin with."
Brilliant, yes?
On that note, realizing how bad San Diego's defense is and how generally amazing Tom Brady is, not to mention the injuries to Gates and Floyd (both on my fantasy team - ARGHGHG!!), I am going to pick New England to win outright and call it the Upset of the Week.
Raiders (2-4) @ Broncos (2-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6
Actual Line: DEN by 8
Duh, I don't know what I was thinking guessing 6. Bruce Gradkowski is still out with a shoulder, and Jason Campbell has a torn knee of some kind. I completely forgot that Kyle Boller is starting for the Raiders. Folks, you might want to check if the Denver defense is available in your fantasy league and pick them up right away. If I didn't have Baltimore and Pittsburgh, I would have already done so.
Can't imagine the Raiders staying competitive against the well-oiled Kyle Orton Machine. Nnamdia Asmougha will cover Brandon Lloyd to death, but that will leave Royal, Williams, Gaffney and the lot to gain 300+ yards. Hopefully Knowshon Moreno will have a worthwhile fantasy game for me too. He certainly should. Oakland can't stop the run.
It's always risky to pick favorites to cover spreads of 7+, especially teams as fundamentally flawed as Denver, but it's also pretty risky to roll with Kyle Boller. I'll take Denver +8. In fact, make it this week's LOCK.
Vikings (2-3) @ Packers (3-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 2.5
Hmm... so what should I say about Brett Favre? The 19 years in Green Bay, the sex-phone scandal, some witty Dockers joke? He's just too easy of a target right now.
This is a definite 'stay-away' game when it comes to betting. Not that I bet real money. But you know, if I did. There's no telling with either of these teams, especially in the emotional Favre Bowl where 50% of the fans will be unsure who to cheer for.
Green Bay has been decimated with injuries - Ryan Grant, JerMichael Finley, Clay Matthews, Atari Bigby, Ryan Pickett, Mark Tauscher - and has relied too heavily on Aaron Rodgers to carry them. He hasn't really been up for it. They've lost two consecutive overtime games, though, so let's be honest: Green Bay could easily be 5-1.
Minnesota hasn't had injuries - they've just been Favred to death week after week. The dude is forcing throws and looking like a 41 year old. He's staring down receivers - something he NEVER did in his prime - and losing velocity. He's just flatout playing badly. And the worst problem is, Adrian Peterson is being underused. He ranks 8th in the NFL in carries and is 13th among RBs in receiving targets. That's too low for a player as good as AP.
Both of these teams are flawed, but also extremely dangerous. Don't forget about the Randy Moss - Charles Woodson matchup.
I think injuries are the difference in this game, and Minnesota eeks it out. You just can't lose 6 of your 10 best players to injuries and expect to keep winning. I'll take the Vikes -2.5
Giants (4-2) @ Cowboys (1-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3
Hmmm ...
Whatever. I have no chance of picking this game right. I either take Dallas because they're 'desperate' and they lose AGAIN because they're 'stupid', or I pick New York because Dallas keeps beating themselves with idiotic penalties and turnovers and then Dallas fixes all their problems and wins. Either way, I'll pick this game wrong. Only one way to choose. Heads is Dallas, tails is New York.
....
And tails it is. Go Giants!
Stay tuned for embarassing results and thoughts on the Lions next game, at home against Washington. Stafford will be ready to go by then. Is that a good thing?
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Bah
I was 3-9-2 against the spread this week. Two teams were favored by 3 and won by exactly 3, thus the ties.
45-43-2 Overall
Lock of the Week: 3-2-1
Upset of the Week: 3-3
Lions Picks: 3-3
Next week I'll probably just flip a coin 14 times. Or pick 14 home teams. Or pick teams alphabetically. I don't know if I could possibly do worse than 3-9-2. How embarassing.
But to prove that I'm not a complete idiot, I'd like to point out that I went 2-0 in the significant fantasy leagues and 7-3 in the semi-pointless leagues for a 9-3 week.
In other news, the NBA season starts two weeks from tonight!
--
A couple months ago I wrote a large NBA Preview which hopefully you enjoyed or at least read. I'm currently thinking about writing something about the Pistons, but it's a little bit depressing to think about.
I'm in two fantasy basketball leagues this year; one for kicks and giggles, and the other for very serious bragging rights. The B league drafted yesterday. I took Dirk Nowitzki, Brandon Roy, Tyreke Evans, Gerald Wallace, Andrew Bogut, and Russell Westbrook and I wasn't thrilled about any of those picks. I'll probably be competitive depending on what free agents become available and who gets hurt. The other league, a prestigous Cornerstone league full of fantasy basketball nuts, drafts tomorrow night at 9pm.
I know I'm not going to replicate the magic of last year's fantasy basketball season. I stole Kevin Durant at the end of the first round (9th pick) and he went on to lead the NBA in scoring. I had Rondo (1st in steals, 3rd in assists), Bogut (2nd in blocks), Josh Smith (top 5 in blocks), Paul Pierce (steady scoring), Gerald Wallace (top 5 in rebounds), Corey Maggette (consistent 20 ppg), and the three best fantasy rookies by a mile: Tyreke Evans (one of only three players to average a 20-5-5, the other two were Kobe and LeBron), Brandon Jennings (scored 25 ppg the first two months of the season, then fell apart) and Stephen Curry (fantasy darling with 18 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals a night).
It was a wonderous season and I easily captured the title. I might have had the best fantasy basketball team in America. Like I said, there's no way I'm recapturing the magic of that team.
But fantasy basketball is a lot different from fantasy football. There's not as much riding on the draft, and there's a lot more room for error. Injuries are equally decimating, but it's easier to find replacements. There are very few stinker games where you player puts up a goose egg. If a guy scores 24 a night, he'll rarely if ever drop below 15. Consistency is the key.
And of course, the primary difference in the two games is versatility. If fantasy football, you want a team which amasses yards and scores touchdowns. That's all that matters. In fantasy basketball, you need a balance. In fact, balance is everything.
Every league has different scoring settings, but these are the categories of importance in my 'bragging rights' league which begins tomorrow night:
FGM, FG%, FTM, FT%, 3PTM, 3PT%, PTS, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK
So obviously scoring is important, but without rebounding and high percentages, you're not going anywhere. You need the defensive stats too.
Typically, your big guys get rebounds and blocks, while your guards rack up assists and steals. Scoring can come from anywhere. Bigs shoot poorer free throw percentages; 2 guards shoot the most 3s. Those are generalizations, but usually true. The key is to find players who break the positional rules.
For example, Troy Murphy is a power forward/center who gets 10 boards and 2 blocks per night. But he's valuable in FBB because he'll also make 2 or 3 threes each game.
Or take a guy like Russell Westbrook. He scores about 16 per game, with 7 assists and 1.5 steals - a solid but not amazing point guard. But what makes him worthy of super sleeper potential in fantasy basketball is his propensity to grab 5 or 6 rebounds every game. When you get rebounds from the PG or SG position, it takes a lot of pressure off you bigs to act like typical bigs, and it allows you the luxury to have high-scoring bigs who stink at rebounding, such as Dirk Nowitzki or Amare Stoudemire.
45-43-2 Overall
Lock of the Week: 3-2-1
Upset of the Week: 3-3
Lions Picks: 3-3
Next week I'll probably just flip a coin 14 times. Or pick 14 home teams. Or pick teams alphabetically. I don't know if I could possibly do worse than 3-9-2. How embarassing.
But to prove that I'm not a complete idiot, I'd like to point out that I went 2-0 in the significant fantasy leagues and 7-3 in the semi-pointless leagues for a 9-3 week.
In other news, the NBA season starts two weeks from tonight!
--
A couple months ago I wrote a large NBA Preview which hopefully you enjoyed or at least read. I'm currently thinking about writing something about the Pistons, but it's a little bit depressing to think about.
I'm in two fantasy basketball leagues this year; one for kicks and giggles, and the other for very serious bragging rights. The B league drafted yesterday. I took Dirk Nowitzki, Brandon Roy, Tyreke Evans, Gerald Wallace, Andrew Bogut, and Russell Westbrook and I wasn't thrilled about any of those picks. I'll probably be competitive depending on what free agents become available and who gets hurt. The other league, a prestigous Cornerstone league full of fantasy basketball nuts, drafts tomorrow night at 9pm.
I know I'm not going to replicate the magic of last year's fantasy basketball season. I stole Kevin Durant at the end of the first round (9th pick) and he went on to lead the NBA in scoring. I had Rondo (1st in steals, 3rd in assists), Bogut (2nd in blocks), Josh Smith (top 5 in blocks), Paul Pierce (steady scoring), Gerald Wallace (top 5 in rebounds), Corey Maggette (consistent 20 ppg), and the three best fantasy rookies by a mile: Tyreke Evans (one of only three players to average a 20-5-5, the other two were Kobe and LeBron), Brandon Jennings (scored 25 ppg the first two months of the season, then fell apart) and Stephen Curry (fantasy darling with 18 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals a night).
It was a wonderous season and I easily captured the title. I might have had the best fantasy basketball team in America. Like I said, there's no way I'm recapturing the magic of that team.
But fantasy basketball is a lot different from fantasy football. There's not as much riding on the draft, and there's a lot more room for error. Injuries are equally decimating, but it's easier to find replacements. There are very few stinker games where you player puts up a goose egg. If a guy scores 24 a night, he'll rarely if ever drop below 15. Consistency is the key.
And of course, the primary difference in the two games is versatility. If fantasy football, you want a team which amasses yards and scores touchdowns. That's all that matters. In fantasy basketball, you need a balance. In fact, balance is everything.
Every league has different scoring settings, but these are the categories of importance in my 'bragging rights' league which begins tomorrow night:
FGM, FG%, FTM, FT%, 3PTM, 3PT%, PTS, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK
So obviously scoring is important, but without rebounding and high percentages, you're not going anywhere. You need the defensive stats too.
Typically, your big guys get rebounds and blocks, while your guards rack up assists and steals. Scoring can come from anywhere. Bigs shoot poorer free throw percentages; 2 guards shoot the most 3s. Those are generalizations, but usually true. The key is to find players who break the positional rules.
For example, Troy Murphy is a power forward/center who gets 10 boards and 2 blocks per night. But he's valuable in FBB because he'll also make 2 or 3 threes each game.
Or take a guy like Russell Westbrook. He scores about 16 per game, with 7 assists and 1.5 steals - a solid but not amazing point guard. But what makes him worthy of super sleeper potential in fantasy basketball is his propensity to grab 5 or 6 rebounds every game. When you get rebounds from the PG or SG position, it takes a lot of pressure off you bigs to act like typical bigs, and it allows you the luxury to have high-scoring bigs who stink at rebounding, such as Dirk Nowitzki or Amare Stoudemire.
Conversely, getting 3 assists a game and high FT% from your bigs (such as David Lee or Carlos Boozer) allows you to take uncharacteristic guards. A perfect example is Rajon Rondo. He'll be in the top 5 in the NBA in both steals and assists this season, but he scores only about 13 per game and shoots a horrendous 52% from the free throw line. His 2-6 nights from the line will kill your team. But if your big guys are routinely going 10-12 from the stripe, it neutralizes things and all you're doing is benefitting from steals and assists.
There are two basic strategies: you can go the specialist route (take Bogut for blocks, Nash for assists, David Lee for rebounds, etc) or you can do what I do, a strategy that's won me 2 fantasy basketball championships in my 3 years of experience. And it's simple: get guys who do a little bit of everything.
Not that I wouldn't draft a "specialist" player like Bogut or Nash (I gladly would), but don't leave the category there. Don't say "I've got blocks covered, now I need scoring." Try to get as many well-rounded fantasy players as possible. Guys who fill the stat sheet. Guys who get a steal, a block, a three and 4 rebounds every single night. Guys who play a lot of minutes, but don't score a ton of points, but they make their presence known.
I realize I'm writing this to nobody, because either nobody is reading this or nobody gives a crap about fantasy basketball. But the point is - you should. It's every bit as fun as fantasy football, and involves a lot less luck. In fantasy football, you could be the smartest guy in the league and never win the championship. You could start a team of guys who are "projected" to put up big numbers, and get totally hosed by some dork who autodrafted and couldn't even tell you 3 players on his own team. In fact, for week 6 of the NFL season, you could have played this team full of slam-dunk, can't-miss fantasy football superstars:
Phillip Rivers
Michael Turner
Maurice Jones-Drew
Miles Austin
Wes Welker
Reggie Wayne
Antonio Gates
...and you would have got destroyed. You would have scored about 40 points total. Isn't that just ridiculous? Fantasy basketball isn't remotely like that. If you have a team full of first and second round picks, you're unbeatable. There's no such thing as 'LeBron James only scored 3 points and had 1 rebound tonight.' But that's exactly what happens on Sundays. And it's pretty dang maddening.
So anyway.... I'm excited to see how the draft goes, who I end up with, and if any Pistons players are taken in the top 100.
Stay tuned for my pathetic week 7 picks.Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Week 5 Wrap Up + Week 6 Picks
First, the good news.
I won the A League last week - my fourth straight win - thanks to Randy Moss's Monday night heroics. I have scored 50 points more than anyone else and that $300 dollar prize is looking pretty attainable.
I went a whopping 9-1 in the Yahoo/ESPN leagues, thanks to a heavy dose of Matt Forte, Malcolm Floyd, and the Lions defense. (I drafted the Steelers in almost every league, and picked up Detroit as a bye replacement in 6 leagues. They scored between 27-47 points, depending on the scoring system). I lost the dumb B League and am now 2-3.
Now... the bad news. I was 6-8 on my picks against the spread. And I might have the flu.
But I'm not beating myself up too much about the picks. I mean, the Cardinals beat the Saints outright thanks to 3 defensive touchdowns, the Raiders beat San Diego outright thanks to two blocked punts, and the Bears beat Carolina despite Todd Collins throwing 4 interceptions and just 6 completions. The Packers lost to Washington in OT because everyone wearing green got hurt, the Bengals lost because Ochocinco let a perfect pass bounce of his hands which would have put Cincinnati in field goal range in a tied game but instead was picked off and run back 40 yards to set up a winning field goal for Tampa instead, and Buffalo lost to Jacksonville despite going up 10-0 in the first 4 minutes.
Lots of stupid, fluky games.
San Fran lost again, thanks to 5 turnovers and 10 penalties. And the Vikings (as well as the Cowboys) fell to 1-3. Considering those three teams are LOADED with talent on BOTH sides of the ball and are a combined 2-11, I'd say this season is pretty dang bizarre.
Season: 42-34 against the spread
Lock of the Week: 3-2
Upset of the Week: 3-2
Lions Picks: 3-2
Let's jump into the week 6 picks, shall we?
Seahawks @ Bears
Predicted Line: Chicago by 4
Actual Line: Chicago by 7
Don't really want to pick either team. Seattle is terrible on the road (11-25 ATS since 2006) but Jay Cutler has been terrible when he's favored by 7 or more (he's 3-7 ATS). Come to think of it, when has Jay Cutler not been terrible?
Both of these teams have similar weaknesses - bad offensive lines, bad secondaries. Both teams are solid against the run though (Seattle ranks 2nd, Chicago is 4th), which should make this an aeiral affair. And in that case, I gotta take the Bears +7; remarkably, Chicago will be 5-1.
Ravens @ Patriots
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 3
It will probably be said often on Sunday that Bill Belichick has not lost following a bye week since 2002. But it should be noted that 4 of those 7 games were against Buffalo. And this year's Pats simply aren't as good as Patriots teams from the past decade, especially with the swap of Randy Moss for Deion Branch.
Baltimore is simply a better team than New England right now. They can run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer. New England can't do any of those three things. That might have something to do with why Baltimore beat the snot out of New England in the 2009 playoffs.
I know New England has a certain Hall of Fame quarterback and is playing at home, but Tom Brady isn't the same QB he was 2 years ago. I will take the Ravens -3. Call it a gut feeling.
Lions @ Giants
Predicted Line: NY by 6.5
Actual Line: NY by 10
This line seems a little high considering Detroit has been competitive in every game this season. Of course, Vegas realizes that it's only a matter of time before the Lions lose by 4 touchdowns, and a road game against the NFC East seems appropriate.
Here are some matchups to keep an eye on:
Justin Tuck vs. Jeff Backus - huge advantage for the Giants. Hill will be running for his life all day.
Corey Webster/Antrel Rolle vs. Calvin Johnson (who might not play anyway) - Webster is secretly a good shutdown corner and Rolle is one of the league's best coverage safeties. They'll double team Calvin together and force Hill to check down to Best and the tight ends. Which is okay with me.
Ndamukong Suh vs. Chris Snee - A few years ago, Snee was named the strongest player in the NFL. He's been an elite offensive guard, particularly in run blocking, for about a decade. This is Suh's toughest challenge of the season. And the first time he won't be double teamed.
Eli Manning vs. Lions secondary - This is an awful matchup because Eli has THREE talented, young receivers. Our only hope at stopping Eli is the pass rush.
Obviously New York has loads more talent than the Lions, is better coached, and is at home. They'll win this game, and Eli and Bradshaw will both have huge games. I want to think Detroit can keep it within 10, but if I had to bet, I'd go with New York.
Falcons @ Eagles
Predicted Line: Philly by 2
Actual Line: Philly by 2.5
Atlanta is simply a better team, especially on defense. Should be a big day for Michael Turner. I like the Falcons.
Browns @ Steelers
Predicted Line: Pittsburgh by 13
Actual Line: Pittsburgh by 13.5
With noodle-armed Colt McCoy starting his first career game at Heinz Field against a defense with no less than 7 Pro Bowl players, there's no reason to think the Browns offense will gain more than 50 yards in this contest.
Maybe Josh Cribbs will do something and keep it close? I don't know. It's not a question of whether or not McCoy will throw a pick-six, it's a question of how many? I'll guess three.
Dolphins @ Packers
Predicted Line: Pack by 6
Actual Line: Pack by 3
I won the A League last week - my fourth straight win - thanks to Randy Moss's Monday night heroics. I have scored 50 points more than anyone else and that $300 dollar prize is looking pretty attainable.
I went a whopping 9-1 in the Yahoo/ESPN leagues, thanks to a heavy dose of Matt Forte, Malcolm Floyd, and the Lions defense. (I drafted the Steelers in almost every league, and picked up Detroit as a bye replacement in 6 leagues. They scored between 27-47 points, depending on the scoring system). I lost the dumb B League and am now 2-3.
Now... the bad news. I was 6-8 on my picks against the spread. And I might have the flu.
But I'm not beating myself up too much about the picks. I mean, the Cardinals beat the Saints outright thanks to 3 defensive touchdowns, the Raiders beat San Diego outright thanks to two blocked punts, and the Bears beat Carolina despite Todd Collins throwing 4 interceptions and just 6 completions. The Packers lost to Washington in OT because everyone wearing green got hurt, the Bengals lost because Ochocinco let a perfect pass bounce of his hands which would have put Cincinnati in field goal range in a tied game but instead was picked off and run back 40 yards to set up a winning field goal for Tampa instead, and Buffalo lost to Jacksonville despite going up 10-0 in the first 4 minutes.
Lots of stupid, fluky games.
San Fran lost again, thanks to 5 turnovers and 10 penalties. And the Vikings (as well as the Cowboys) fell to 1-3. Considering those three teams are LOADED with talent on BOTH sides of the ball and are a combined 2-11, I'd say this season is pretty dang bizarre.
Season: 42-34 against the spread
Lock of the Week: 3-2
Upset of the Week: 3-2
Lions Picks: 3-2
Let's jump into the week 6 picks, shall we?
Seahawks @ Bears
Predicted Line: Chicago by 4
Actual Line: Chicago by 7
Don't really want to pick either team. Seattle is terrible on the road (11-25 ATS since 2006) but Jay Cutler has been terrible when he's favored by 7 or more (he's 3-7 ATS). Come to think of it, when has Jay Cutler not been terrible?
Both of these teams have similar weaknesses - bad offensive lines, bad secondaries. Both teams are solid against the run though (Seattle ranks 2nd, Chicago is 4th), which should make this an aeiral affair. And in that case, I gotta take the Bears +7; remarkably, Chicago will be 5-1.
Ravens @ Patriots
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 3
It will probably be said often on Sunday that Bill Belichick has not lost following a bye week since 2002. But it should be noted that 4 of those 7 games were against Buffalo. And this year's Pats simply aren't as good as Patriots teams from the past decade, especially with the swap of Randy Moss for Deion Branch.
Baltimore is simply a better team than New England right now. They can run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer. New England can't do any of those three things. That might have something to do with why Baltimore beat the snot out of New England in the 2009 playoffs.
I know New England has a certain Hall of Fame quarterback and is playing at home, but Tom Brady isn't the same QB he was 2 years ago. I will take the Ravens -3. Call it a gut feeling.
Lions @ Giants
Predicted Line: NY by 6.5
Actual Line: NY by 10
This line seems a little high considering Detroit has been competitive in every game this season. Of course, Vegas realizes that it's only a matter of time before the Lions lose by 4 touchdowns, and a road game against the NFC East seems appropriate.
Here are some matchups to keep an eye on:
Justin Tuck vs. Jeff Backus - huge advantage for the Giants. Hill will be running for his life all day.
Corey Webster/Antrel Rolle vs. Calvin Johnson (who might not play anyway) - Webster is secretly a good shutdown corner and Rolle is one of the league's best coverage safeties. They'll double team Calvin together and force Hill to check down to Best and the tight ends. Which is okay with me.
Ndamukong Suh vs. Chris Snee - A few years ago, Snee was named the strongest player in the NFL. He's been an elite offensive guard, particularly in run blocking, for about a decade. This is Suh's toughest challenge of the season. And the first time he won't be double teamed.
Eli Manning vs. Lions secondary - This is an awful matchup because Eli has THREE talented, young receivers. Our only hope at stopping Eli is the pass rush.
Obviously New York has loads more talent than the Lions, is better coached, and is at home. They'll win this game, and Eli and Bradshaw will both have huge games. I want to think Detroit can keep it within 10, but if I had to bet, I'd go with New York.
Falcons @ Eagles
Predicted Line: Philly by 2
Actual Line: Philly by 2.5
Atlanta is simply a better team, especially on defense. Should be a big day for Michael Turner. I like the Falcons.
Browns @ Steelers
Predicted Line: Pittsburgh by 13
Actual Line: Pittsburgh by 13.5
With noodle-armed Colt McCoy starting his first career game at Heinz Field against a defense with no less than 7 Pro Bowl players, there's no reason to think the Browns offense will gain more than 50 yards in this contest.
Maybe Josh Cribbs will do something and keep it close? I don't know. It's not a question of whether or not McCoy will throw a pick-six, it's a question of how many? I'll guess three.
Dolphins @ Packers
Predicted Line: Pack by 6
Actual Line: Pack by 3
Breaking news: Aaron Rodgers is playing! So ... why is Green Bay only favored by 3 at home? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I know they were hit with some big injuries, but they still have Charles Woodson who can clamp down on Marshall in this game, and Rodgers still has his top two receivers. I'm just not quite understanding this line. I'll go with the Packers.
Chargers @ Rams
Predicted Line: SD by 7
Actual Line: SD by 8
The line seems a little high considering how much San Diego stinks on the road, but Rivers is playing just too well right now to even think about this game being close. Especially considering that holdout left tackle Marcus McNeil makes his return, and sends the LT Brandyn Dombroswki over to RT, and makes the Chargers offensive line just that much better.
Steven Jackson is the best thing St. Louis has going for them, but if this game gets out of hand early, and it might, then Jackson's role will be reduced. I'll go with the Bolts.
Saints @ Bucs
Predicted Line: NO by 4
Actual line: NO by 4
This line is too low considering the differential in talent. I know Tampa is playing surprisingly better than expected, and New Orleans is playing surprisingly worse than expected, but come on. 4 points? This is Drew Brees we're talking about. I'll take the Saints and make it the Lock of the Week.
Chiefs @ Texans
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4.5
Toughest game to call. I still have no idea if KC is for real. I'm gonna go with my gut and say Houston wins big.
Raiders @ 49ers
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 6.5
Shoot. What kind of 0-5 team gets favored by a touchdown? It's unbelievable how San Fran is still riding the wave of overratedness from the preseason.
That said, I am quite certain the 49ers will finally get their first win. It's sheer desperation time. Mike Singletary and Alex Smith will both lose their jobs if they start out 0-6. But for San Fran to win in blowout fashion would surprise me, and thus I hate the line; so I'll take Oakland -6.5.
Jets @ Broncos
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
For some reason, I think this matchup really suits the Broncos.
Firstly, New York played a Monday nighter in the rain last week, so they're coming off a short week of practice and an emotional national TV game.
Secondly, I'm always wary of East Coast teams flying to the West, and I'm especially wary when people start calling Mark Sanchez an MVP candidate.
Thirdly, this matchup stinks for the Jets because they can't lock Revis on Denver's top WR, because Denver truly has no top receiver. Orton will throw to everybody. That's why he's having such a magical season.
Fourthly, I just think all this 'LaDanian Tomlinson has found the fountain of youth' talk is a bunch of bull.
I'll pick the Broncos and call it the Upset of the Week.
Cowboys @ Vikings
Predicted Line: Minn by 3
Actual Line: Minn by 1.5
Definite game of the week. Neither team can afford to lose. I wish I had time to break this game down like crazy, but it's already Saturday (I was out of commission most of the week with flu-like symptoms).
I want to just take Minnesota because they're at home and that's the safe pick, but I don't think homefield advantage means much in this game. Brett Favre doesn't really believe in loyalty so I don't think the fans really matter to him. I think this game comes down to nothing less than determination, will to win, and grinding it out. If either team had a great coach that would factor into the decision, but both coaches are uber-goobers.
There's so much freaking talent involved in this game I don't even know where to start. Both teams have top 3 players at defensive tackle (Williams, Ratliff); both teams have top 3 pass rushers in the NFL (Ware, Allen); both teams have top 5 overall offensive lines in the NFL; both teams have top 5 receivers (Moss, Austin); both teams have great tight ends; both teams have great receiver depth; both teams have great running games; both teams have Pro Bowlers in the secondary; both teams have solid linebackers.
I mean honestly, why aren't both of these teams 4-0? It's truly perplexing. I guess it just goes to show the negative affect of drama and distraction.
So which team is less drama-distracted right now? That's got to be Dallas. I'll take Dallas.
Colts @ Redskins
Predicted Line: Indy by 5.5
Actual Line: Indy by 3
This line is psycHotic. Does Vegas just want to give money away?!? All Peyton Manning has to do is win by 3? Isn't his career record something like 180-15? Isn't he 35-0 all time on night games? What am I missing here? Isn't this the easiest pick of the month? I am changing my Lock of the Week to Colts +3.
Titans @ Jags
Predicted Line: Titans by 2
Actual Line: Titans by 2
It's hard to believe that both teams are 3-2 considering how much better the Titans are than the Jaguars. But this is Monday night, and the Jaguars only play hard when people are watching. Which means divisional games and night games. And this is both.
So ... it might be a fun game and more competitive than people expect. But I'll still take the Titans.
Enjoy week 6 folks. Go Lions.Monday, October 11, 2010
Browns QB
Seneca Wallace has a high ankle sprain.
Jake Delhomme has a high ankle sprain.
Which means that Colt McCoy might be the only healthy Browns quarterback next Sunday.
On the road. Against Pittsburgh.
So the question is: how many points will the Steelers DST earn me? I'll put the over/under at 42.5.
Jake Delhomme has a high ankle sprain.
Which means that Colt McCoy might be the only healthy Browns quarterback next Sunday.
On the road. Against Pittsburgh.
So the question is: how many points will the Steelers DST earn me? I'll put the over/under at 42.5.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Week FIVE Picks and Predicts
It was a wonderful week four - I went 11-3 against the spread and am now sitting comfortably at 36-26 on the year. But it just took one quick glance at the week 5 schedule to realize that I'm about to be knocked off my perch. Almost every single game is going to be a tough call. I'm going to have to put some biases aside and make some really tough calls ... Let's start with the Lions game.
Rams @ Lions
Predicted Line: Lions by 2
Actual Line: Lions by 3
Truthfully, this might be the hardest game to call.
As I predicted earlier this week, Matthew Stafford will sit this game out, so it'll be up to Shaun Hill to lead the Lions to their first victory, against the team who only won one game last season. That game, coincidentally, was against Detroit.
In a lot of ways, these teams are mirror images of each other.
-Bad secondaries
-Bad offensive lines
-Good running backs
-Pretty good passing games
-Coaches who everyone thinks highly of, even though their head coaching records are 2-18 (Schwartz) and 3-17 (Spagnuolo).
St. Louis has a big advantage with Steven Jackson. He's the best player in this game, one of the best running backs in the league, and he routinely torments the Lions. But, the Lions haven't had a defensive lineman as good as Ndamukong Suh in ... well ...probably ever. .
Let's not overlook Jahvid Best; he might be in store for a huge, huge game. The Rams have not been able to stop the run all decade and they haven't made any major improvements. They have a pretty solid middle linebacker in James Laurinaitis, but not much else to brag about on defense.
Shaun Hill should be able to pick apart the secondary and linebackers with short passes and dumpoffs, just like he did last week. He should have lots of time to throw, which might mean a deep ball or two. Overall, there's no reason to think the Lions offense won't score at least 24 points, unless we beat ourselves with stupid turnovers and penalties, which is a definite possibility.
When the Rams have the ball, Detroit has to focus on Jackson and force Bradford to beat them. They've got to keep a safety (probably Delmas) near the line of scrimmage and leave just 3 men in coverage. That makes me nervous, not because Bradford is a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback (yet), but because just about ANY quarterback can beat the Lions cornerbacks on deep routes.
We'll undoubtedly create some pressure and some havoc in the backfield; Gunther Cunningham loves to blitz against young and inexperienced quarterbacks. I've picked up the Lions defense in 7 of my 12 fantasy leagues, mostly because I own the Steelers defense in almost every league and they're on a bye.
But at the same time, while Detroit should rack up 4-5 sacks and 2-3 turnovers in this game, we'll probably give up at least 150 total yards to Jackson and allow at least 20 points.
This game could truly be a blowout in either direction; it could also be a shootout with both teams well into the 30s; and it could also be a snooze fest filled with punts. I really have no idea. These teams are so similar and both so void of talent, that I'm tempted to pick St. Louis simply because of an immense coaching advantage and because they've got confidence after 2 straight wins.
But then I think ... can the Rams really win 3 games in a row? Is that seriously possible?
And can the Lions really lose to the Rams 2 years in a row, and start out 0-5? If we lose this game, we won't get our first victory until week 10. I can't bear to imagine that happening.
I'm gonna go Lions by 3. Or hopefully more.
Jaguars (2-2) @ Bills (0-4)
Predicted Line: Jags by 2
Actual Life: Jags by 1
Okay, let's just get all the crap games out of the way first. I know Jacksonville is coming off a thrilling win over the Colts, but let's not overreact. They're abysmal on the road (5-14 over their last 19 games). They've been playing terribly all season. David Garrard has not looked good. And they put their heart and soul into that Colts game, and since 2002 they are 1-7 ATS as favorites following Colts games. Basically what that means is, after they play the Colts, they suck.
But speaking of suck ... I predicted Buffalo would go 0-16, and I really want to be consistent with that pick. I can't pick Buffalo to cover the spread since it's just 1 point; they have to win straight up.
My head tells me to definitely pick Jacksonville; but for some reason I just can't trust Jack Del Rio or David Garrard on the road. And really, what are the chances of Buffalo actually going 0-16? It's only happened once, ever. If they're going to get a win this season, this is their best chance. I'm gonna take Buffalo. And I hope to never say those words again.
Tampa Bay (2-1) @ Cincinnati (2-2)
Predicted Line: Bengals by 5.5
Actual Line: Bengals by 6.5
The line is a few points higher than I'd like it to be, but I'm still taking Cincinnati. There's just too much of a imbalance in talent.
Carson Palmer, or as I call him, the Secretly Terrible Carson Palmer (STCP), has shown this year that he can beat up on bad secondaries. He doesn't have the arm strength or the accuracy he had in 2005, but against Tampa's very bad defense he won't really need it. Not to mention that Bucs can't stop the run, and Cedric Benson, while overrated and also secretly terrible, is able to tout the ball 25 times without slowing down. Cincy will hang 28 points on Tampa easily.
It's going to be hard for Tampa to keep pace. The Bengals two best defenders are shutdown corners (Hall and Joseph) and that's why they are a top 10 defense against the pass. Tampa simply can't run the ball. So I think Josh Freeman will be stuck in a lot of 3rd and longs and that should lead to several turnovers and probably a pick-six.
I like the Bengals to win 34-17.
Falcons (3-1) @ Browns (1-3)
Predicted Line: Atlanta by 4
Actual Line: Atlanta by 3
So far I've picked all the lines within 1 point. That's pretty impressive. Let's see if I can keep that up.
This game is just atrociously difficult to pick. All common sense says "Pick the Falcons! All they have to do is win by 3!"
But Matt Ryan is a completely different quarterback outdoors. He's just not good on the road. And with Cleveland coming off a win and running the ball incredibly well, I have a hard time picking Atlanta, who would be 1-3 if:
- Garrett Hartley could make a 29 yard field goal;
- and Nate Clements just took a knee instead of galloping around like an idiot.
Two weeks in a row Atlanta has won solely thanks to the Goat of the Week. Now, it's entirely possible that Jake Delhomme could be this week's Goat. But I think it's more likely that Peyton Hillis continues to rumble and the Browns shock Atlanta, 20-13. But I'm not quite confident enough to make it the Upset of the Week.
Rams @ Lions
Predicted Line: Lions by 2
Actual Line: Lions by 3
Truthfully, this might be the hardest game to call.
As I predicted earlier this week, Matthew Stafford will sit this game out, so it'll be up to Shaun Hill to lead the Lions to their first victory, against the team who only won one game last season. That game, coincidentally, was against Detroit.
In a lot of ways, these teams are mirror images of each other.
-Bad secondaries
-Bad offensive lines
-Good running backs
-Pretty good passing games
-Coaches who everyone thinks highly of, even though their head coaching records are 2-18 (Schwartz) and 3-17 (Spagnuolo).
St. Louis has a big advantage with Steven Jackson. He's the best player in this game, one of the best running backs in the league, and he routinely torments the Lions. But, the Lions haven't had a defensive lineman as good as Ndamukong Suh in ... well ...probably ever. .
Let's not overlook Jahvid Best; he might be in store for a huge, huge game. The Rams have not been able to stop the run all decade and they haven't made any major improvements. They have a pretty solid middle linebacker in James Laurinaitis, but not much else to brag about on defense.
Shaun Hill should be able to pick apart the secondary and linebackers with short passes and dumpoffs, just like he did last week. He should have lots of time to throw, which might mean a deep ball or two. Overall, there's no reason to think the Lions offense won't score at least 24 points, unless we beat ourselves with stupid turnovers and penalties, which is a definite possibility.
When the Rams have the ball, Detroit has to focus on Jackson and force Bradford to beat them. They've got to keep a safety (probably Delmas) near the line of scrimmage and leave just 3 men in coverage. That makes me nervous, not because Bradford is a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback (yet), but because just about ANY quarterback can beat the Lions cornerbacks on deep routes.
We'll undoubtedly create some pressure and some havoc in the backfield; Gunther Cunningham loves to blitz against young and inexperienced quarterbacks. I've picked up the Lions defense in 7 of my 12 fantasy leagues, mostly because I own the Steelers defense in almost every league and they're on a bye.
But at the same time, while Detroit should rack up 4-5 sacks and 2-3 turnovers in this game, we'll probably give up at least 150 total yards to Jackson and allow at least 20 points.
This game could truly be a blowout in either direction; it could also be a shootout with both teams well into the 30s; and it could also be a snooze fest filled with punts. I really have no idea. These teams are so similar and both so void of talent, that I'm tempted to pick St. Louis simply because of an immense coaching advantage and because they've got confidence after 2 straight wins.
But then I think ... can the Rams really win 3 games in a row? Is that seriously possible?
And can the Lions really lose to the Rams 2 years in a row, and start out 0-5? If we lose this game, we won't get our first victory until week 10. I can't bear to imagine that happening.
I'm gonna go Lions by 3. Or hopefully more.
Jaguars (2-2) @ Bills (0-4)
Predicted Line: Jags by 2
Actual Life: Jags by 1
Okay, let's just get all the crap games out of the way first. I know Jacksonville is coming off a thrilling win over the Colts, but let's not overreact. They're abysmal on the road (5-14 over their last 19 games). They've been playing terribly all season. David Garrard has not looked good. And they put their heart and soul into that Colts game, and since 2002 they are 1-7 ATS as favorites following Colts games. Basically what that means is, after they play the Colts, they suck.
But speaking of suck ... I predicted Buffalo would go 0-16, and I really want to be consistent with that pick. I can't pick Buffalo to cover the spread since it's just 1 point; they have to win straight up.
My head tells me to definitely pick Jacksonville; but for some reason I just can't trust Jack Del Rio or David Garrard on the road. And really, what are the chances of Buffalo actually going 0-16? It's only happened once, ever. If they're going to get a win this season, this is their best chance. I'm gonna take Buffalo. And I hope to never say those words again.
Tampa Bay (2-1) @ Cincinnati (2-2)
Predicted Line: Bengals by 5.5
Actual Line: Bengals by 6.5
The line is a few points higher than I'd like it to be, but I'm still taking Cincinnati. There's just too much of a imbalance in talent.
Carson Palmer, or as I call him, the Secretly Terrible Carson Palmer (STCP), has shown this year that he can beat up on bad secondaries. He doesn't have the arm strength or the accuracy he had in 2005, but against Tampa's very bad defense he won't really need it. Not to mention that Bucs can't stop the run, and Cedric Benson, while overrated and also secretly terrible, is able to tout the ball 25 times without slowing down. Cincy will hang 28 points on Tampa easily.
It's going to be hard for Tampa to keep pace. The Bengals two best defenders are shutdown corners (Hall and Joseph) and that's why they are a top 10 defense against the pass. Tampa simply can't run the ball. So I think Josh Freeman will be stuck in a lot of 3rd and longs and that should lead to several turnovers and probably a pick-six.
I like the Bengals to win 34-17.
Falcons (3-1) @ Browns (1-3)
Predicted Line: Atlanta by 4
Actual Line: Atlanta by 3
So far I've picked all the lines within 1 point. That's pretty impressive. Let's see if I can keep that up.
This game is just atrociously difficult to pick. All common sense says "Pick the Falcons! All they have to do is win by 3!"
But Matt Ryan is a completely different quarterback outdoors. He's just not good on the road. And with Cleveland coming off a win and running the ball incredibly well, I have a hard time picking Atlanta, who would be 1-3 if:
- Garrett Hartley could make a 29 yard field goal;
- and Nate Clements just took a knee instead of galloping around like an idiot.
Two weeks in a row Atlanta has won solely thanks to the Goat of the Week. Now, it's entirely possible that Jake Delhomme could be this week's Goat. But I think it's more likely that Peyton Hillis continues to rumble and the Browns shock Atlanta, 20-13. But I'm not quite confident enough to make it the Upset of the Week.
Chiefs (3-0) @ Colts (2-2)
Predicted Line: Indy by 5.5
Actual Line: Indy by 8
Shoot, I was really hoping the Chiefs astonishing 3-0 start would skew this line down to 5 or less so I could take the Colts and make it a Lock. But eight points is a little steep. Especially given Indy's inability to stop the run, and Kansas City's two-headed running attack.
Don't misunderstand, I'm 100% sure Indy will win this game. Peyton Manning doesn't lose at home, he doesn't lose two in a row, and he doesn't lose to crappy teams. But I think KC can probably keep it within 8 points.... well, okay maybe not. If Indy jumps out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, which they probably will, then KC's going to have to abandon the run and let Matt Cassel throw ... which means, yeah, I'll take Indy +8. But I'm not excited about it.
Packers (3-1) @ Redskins (2-2)
Predicted Line: Green Bay by 3.5
Actual Line: Green Bay by 2.5
It seems that Vegas took note of the Packers' inability to run the ball, and gave them less than a field goal against Washington. But that doesn't make this an easy bet, because Washington is at home and coming off an emotional win at Philly.
Here's a bizarre stat for you, courtesy of WalterFootball.com:
Since 1980, home dogs are 114-71 ATS when coming off a straight-up road win vs. a team coming off a home win.
So... Washington, being a home dog, has the odds in their favor to cover this spread. But I think that stat might be misleading in this case, because the spread isn't much of a factor at just 2.5 points. How many games are really decided by 3 or less? Maybe 20% at most?
I think Rodgers can pass on the Redskins secondary, and I don't think the running game will matter. I also think that one of Washington's biggest weaknesses is pass protection, and Clay Matthews will put pressure on McNabb all game long. I like the Packers, but again, I can't make it the Lock of the Week because of the whole 'home dog' thing.
Bears (3-1) @ Panthers (0-4)
Predicted Line: Bears by 3
Actual Line: Bears by 2.5
What the line should be: Panthers by 1.5.
Chicago is not a good team; they are not well-coached and they have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Jay Cutler is a below-average quarterback. And Chicago's defense, while bolstered by the addition of Julius Peppers, is average at best.
I will pick Carolina because I don't think they can start the season 0-5, and I don't think they'll lose 3 straight home games. Big game coming for both Panthers running backs, and Jimmy Claussen will get his first NFL win despite only throwing for 120 yards.
Bonus question - how many sacks does Peppers get in his Carolina homecoming? I'll put the over/under at 1.5 and guess the under.
Broncos (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1)
Predicted Line: Baltimore by 7
Actual Line: Baltimore by 7
I love when I guess the line exactly.
This is another tough call because lately Kyle Orton looks like the second coming of John Elway, and he's beaten the spread now 3 weeks in a row. You'd think no team would be getting more than 7 points against the suddenly lethal Broncos offense. But alas, betters are still giving no love to Denver, and neither is Vegas. More than 70% of the action for this game is for Baltimore.
Right now, Kyle Orton is on pace to throw for 5,676 yards, which would shatter the NFL record. Obviously that's not going to happen. But it's weird to think about. Baltimore is nearly impossible to run against, but that should worry pass-happy Denver. Ed Reed is still out (he should be back in 2-3 weeks) so expect Orton to have another field day of 300+ yards. And the Ravens offense hasn't piled points up on anyone except Cleveland, and Denver's defense is probably better than Cleveland's. I think the Ravens probably get the win, but 7 points is too high. I'll go with Denver to cover.
Giants (2-2) @ Texans (3-1)
Predicted Line: Houston by 5
Actual Line: Houston by 3
This is the weirdest line of the week; Houston giving 3 points means Vegas sees these teams as equal. (Home-field advantage equates to a 3 point swing). I know the Giants are coming off a monstrous win, but are they really considered equals with Houston, who started the season by beating the Colts pretty handedly? My only rationale is this line reflects the chance that Andre Johnson does not play. But he is listed as questionable, not doubtful.
That said, this isn't an easy pick. New York is hot and Houston has the league's worst secondary, at least statistically speaking. Eli Manning should have a big day and the Giants offense should be able to pass and run at will. This game is going to be high-scoring just like most Houston games.
Assuming Andre doesn't play, I think New York has slightly more firepower and actually wins this game outright. If it turns out Andre does play, I'll probably be wrong. But I think he won't play. 'Gametime decision' is secret coach code for 'F.U. fantasy players.'
Saints (3-1) @ Cardinals (2-2)
Predicted Line: Saints by 6
Actual Line: Saints by 7
OK, a couple quick things right off the bat:
1) New Orelans would be 4-0 if their kicker could make an extra point;
2) Arizona is probably the worst 2-2 team in NFL history;
3) Undrafted rookie Max Hall from BYU gets the start at quarterback this week for Arizona;
4) Drew Brees is a top 5 overall player in the NFL;
I am a little tenative to pick the Saints to cover a 7 point spread on the road. As I mentioned last week, Sean Peyton doesn't like to run up the score and usually fails to cover touchdown-or-more spreads. But in this case, I don't think the Saints can help but score 40 points. Arizona's defense is just inept; they gave up a near perfect game to Phillip Rivers last week (QB rating was like 148) and Brees is just a notch better than Rivers. I don't think Brees can help but compile a game like: 26-34, 325 yards, 4 TDs. I wish the best for Max Hall, but this game, his first career start, is not going to be enjoyable.
Saints +7. Make it the Lock of the Week.
Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3)
Predicted Line: SD by 6
Actual Line: SD by 6.5
Almost a mirror image of the previous pick - road team favored by a touchdown. In this case, I expect the opposite result.
Oakland is a better team than Arizona, and San Diego is worse than New Orleans. These lines being nearly identical doesn't make sense.
Nnamdia Asomugha will do his cover corner thing and take Malcolm Floyd out of the game plan, which means another big game for Rivers-to-Gates. Ryan Matthews is finally healthy and will get his shot at 20+ carries against a crappy run defense. For those of you who drafted Matthews in the second round of fantasy leagues, two comments:
1) I told you not to, and you should have listened;
2) This is the week he redeems himself a little.
I think San Diego wins outright, but I don't feel good about this line. I'll take Oakland -6.5.
Titans (2-2) @ Cowboys (1-2)
Predicted Line: Dallas by 3
Actual Line: Dallas by ... 7?
Wow. How does a one-win team get favored by a touchdown? I guess Vegas is still enamored with the Cowboys. Can't blame them - their roster is stacked with talent. But so far this season, all we've seen is dysfunction. They can't run the ball, they can't protect Romo, and they make too many stupid mistakes. Are we to believe they corrected all of those things during the bye week, despite having one of the stupidest coaches in the NFL?
I just don't know. Am I missing something? I thought the general assumption was that the Titans are really good. Maybe losing to Denver last week made people think less of them. I still am not crazy about Vince Young, but against a 7 point spread I'll go with the Titans.
Eagles (2-2) @ 49ers (0-4)
Predicted Line: Philly by 2
Actual Line: 49ers by 3.5
WHAT? San Francisco is favored? Even though they are 0-4? Do people really hate Kevin Kolb that much!?!
I can't believe this. I was all set to pick the Niners with the Upset of the Week. I thought Philly would be favored by at least a field goal. I can't believe the 49ers are favored. Dang. This puts a corkscrew in all my plans.
But I'm still taking San Fran. I think this game will actually be uncompetitive. The Eagles can't stop the run; Frank Gore will be a monster. Kevin Kolb is rattled and his teammates don't trust him; on top of that, the Eagles offensive line has two problems:
1) They're not very good. They gave up like 6 sacks to the Lions.
2) They're used to blocking for Vick, and now they have stand-still Kolb.
I'm shocked by this line, but only shocked because of how smart a line it is. I figured I had Vegas totally outsmarted. I guess not. Either way, I'm taking San Francisco. I think they'll still win the NFC West.
Vikings (1-2) @ Jets (3-1)
Predicted Line: Jets by 3.5
Actual Line: Jets by 4
Pick your storyline: Favre against his old team, or Moss against Revis Take II.
Or is this the battle of a 40 year old quarterback on the decline against a 24 year old kid on the rise?
Or, a battle of the greatest running back of the last 10 years versus the greatest running back of right now?
Add it all up and you have one heck of a Monday nighter.
Quick thoughts on the Moss trade from someone who drafted Moss with the 14th overall pick:
-Love the fact that Moss is now the only player in the NFL who doesn't have a bye. He'll play a 17 game season. Too bad he went without a catch last week, otherwise that could mean something.
-Think the Patriots will be just fine. Maybe even better. And I think they'll develop Brandon Tate into a must-start fantasy player.
-Pretty excited to have picked up Tate in 7 of my 12 leagues.
-Not too worried about Moss's value. I think he loses a few touchdowns but probably gets the same yardage.
-Really glad that I don't own Harvin or Shiancoe in any significant leagues.
All that said, I hate the fact that Moss is matched up with Revis for the second time in four weeks. But I can't bench him. Especially with Revis somewhat hurt.
Can't wait to watch this game. And since I can't pick the strangely favored 49ers as my Upset pick, I'm going to have to take Minnesota to win outright as the Upset of the Week.
The Jets are going to miss Kris Jenkins in this game. Big game for AP.
Don't have time to make any fantasy picks or predictions because honestly it's Friday and Jack has an ear infection. Lots going on. But I will give a few bonus college picks:
Michigan OVER MSU
Alabama OVER S.Car by at least three touchdowns
#12 LSU OVER #14 Florida
Upset Special : USC OVER #16 Stanford