Week 17 Picks, and Fantasy Season Wrap Up

Well, it's official. I took down the Cute Little Daisies, 118-93, and won the B league. I'd like to thank Andy for trading me Aaron Rodgers. Couldn't have done it without you!

I finished fourth in the A league (the money league), despite scoring the most overall points. In my ESPN leagues, I won both championships that were decided in week 16 (thank you, Aaron Rodgers & Josh Freeman!!) and am leading 98-74 in one of the championships which will conclude week 17. Remarkably, in the other Championship game I am tied, 206.5 to 206.5. Incredible. Fortunately we have week 17 to break the tie.

For those of you wondering how the score could be 206.5 apiece, it's an IDP league (individual defensive players), and the league also starts a KRS (kick return specialist) and a punter (I know, weird ... you get points for inside the 20, net average, etc). I got a solid 9 points from Suh, who still leads all DTs in fantasy points.

And with that out of the way, here are the sketchy week 17 picks, where I'll try to determine which teams will actually try and which teams are already in offseason mode. Let's start with the Three-In-A-Row Detroit Lions.

Vikings (6-9) @ Lions (5-10)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 3

I should mention, all the games are on Sunday this week. No Thursday, no Monday night, no stupid Tuesday games. Speaking of which, the Vikes are coming off just 4 days of rest.

The big story in this game, obviously, is whether Brett Favre will lace up the ol' gunslingin' shoes one last time, or stay home and begrudgingly send a $50,000 check to the Commish.

Sidenote: Favre's fine is the equivalent of me being fined $67 dollars, if you divide out the same percentage. Can you imagine? I sexually harass a coworker, and after months of deliberation they decide to fine me $67 dollars??? What a world we live in. Favre should have been fined $4 million and suspended without pay. That would be justice. And frankly, I'm not even convinced he did anything wrong. But what's the point of fining a man .25% of his salary? No wonder Jenn Sterger's attorney said the fine was: "An affront to women."

Anyway, the truth is that Brett Favre is highly unlikely to play. Make no mistake, he wants to. But I don't think he can. And Minnesota would rather see Joe Webb anyway. The guy outplayed Michael Vick a couple days ago, so you might as well see what he can do. Let's just make it official: Favre is done. Career=over.

So this game is intriguing because both teams should (emphasis on should) by trying. The Vikings have a coach and a QB who are essentially auditioning for their own jobs. And the Lions are trying to finish the season on a 4 game winning streak, something we haven't done since 1999 (when Charlie Batch was throwing to Johnnie Morton - remember we started that year 6-2, but then lost our final four games to miss the playoffs?).

A four game winning streak would be unbelievable, considering they had a 4-40 stretch from 2007-2010. I know it's four meaningless games at the end of a meaningless season, but actually, not really. Not at all. They are playing for confidence which will seep into next year's mindset. They are playing to inspire the players to believe they can actually be winners. And most importantly, they are playing to keep Megatron. Remember, the more we lose, the more likely we lose our best player.

So this game, presumably, means a lot to both teams. It surely means a great deal to both coaches. A lot of coaches know they're going to be fired (John Fox, Marvin Lewis) and others think they'll probably be fired (Norv Turner, Gary Kubiak) and some aren't sure either way (Jeff Fisher, Tony Sparano, Eric Studesville). But for Schwartz and Frazier, this game is monumentally important for their own confidence and competitiveness going into next year. I don't like Schwartz as an X's and O's coach, but you can't deny the man's will to win. I think he'll have the team ready to compete.

What scares me the most is the 3 point spread. I love picking the Lions (especially lately) as an underdog, but as a favorite? That's a little risky. Don't forget, these Vikings have other-worldly talent at the RB, DT, and DE positions, and pretty dang good players at WR, LB, and CB. Aside from Favre, they haven't really been hit by injuries. And I sure don't think Peterson and Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield want to end the season by losing to the lowly Lions and finishing tied for worst place in the NFC North.

Matchup to worry about:
Backus against Jared Allen. A pure mismatch. But on the positive side, this might be the last game we see Jeff Backus start at left tackle after 159 straight starts. (Coincidentally, the Lions are 38-121 in those games). I cannot wait to hear the words: "The Detroit Lions select ... Gabe Carimi, tackle, University of Wisconsin."
Matchup to like:
Calvin Johnson against Winfield. Not only does Megatron have more speed, more power, and better leaping ability, he's also got 8 inches on him. The Vikings always struggle to stop Calvin. Hopefully this mismatch opens up the running game for the suddenly spry Jahvid Best.

Speaking of Best, I've noticed something that is glaringly obvious, but seems to slip the mind of Scott Linehan: Jahvid Best can't run between the tackles!! My contention is that if they used Best on outside runs and Morris through the middle, instead of vice versa, it just might work!!

The counterargument - it would make the Lions too predictable. Defenses would always see it coming. But what's worse? To be predictable, or to suck?

This game will be a huge litmus test to see if the Lions are actually making progress towards becoming a winning football team. In the last 22 meetings with the Vikings, Detroit's only won once. (Technically twice, if you remember that bogus pass interference call week 6, 2008). But it's time to start beating division rivals. It's time to make teams take Detroit seriously. And for crying out loud, it's the Vikings third string quarterback on 4 days rest!

I'll go with Detroit, 24-20.

**Update -
1) Starting CB Chris Houston is OUT for the Lions.
2) Calvin Johnson is questionable. Even if he does play, he'll be about 50%.
3) The line has moved from DET by 3 to DET by 3.5

For those 3 reasons, I feel inclined to change my pick to the Vikings. However, I'm not going to turn my back on the Lions during a three-game winning streak. So the pick stands. But my confidence level has plummeted.

Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 3.5

The logic - keep all the lines low this week, because who knows which starters will play, which starters will sit, and which teams will completely fold.

Kansas City is assured a playoff spot, so why risk the health of the starters? Of course, Todd Haley has assured everyone that Cassel, Charles, Bowe and the rest of the gang will start and play. But if I know anything, it's this: coaches are liars. Charles only carried the ball 13 times in last week's blowout. Why overwork him in a meaningless game? Oakland doesn't have anything to play for, and neither does KC. If I were the oddsmakers, I would have kept this line under 3.

This is a total shot-in-the-dark pick. I guess the safer bet is the home team, even though I wish the line were lower.

Bucs (9-6) @ Saints (11-4)
Predicted Line: NO by 6
Actual Line: NO by 7.5

The Buccaneers haven't lost by more than 7 points in 2 months ... since the last time they played the Saints. New Orleans put up 31 against them in Tampa, and that was against the starting defense. Now, the 4 best defenders are hurt and Tampa travels to the raucous Superdome. Should be a blowout, right?

So why am I taking Tampa Bay?

For one thing, Josh Freeman is playing the best football of his life right now, with a flawless performance last week against Seattle. Granted, Seattle sucks, but still. Tampa can maybe keep up with the Saints.

Secondly, the only reason New Orleans would try in this game is to earn a first round bye. That happens if and only if Atlanta loses to Carolina, which they know is highly unlikely. My hunch is that some fancy executive in a fancy suit has the job of watching the Falcons game in a fancy booth, and calling Sean Peyton at some point in the third quarter and saying "Okay, Atlanta's up by 27, go ahead and pull Brees."

I want that guy's job.

And I'll take Tampa, who keeps their playoff hopes alive. Now all they need is Green Bay AND the Giants to lose.

Panthers (2-13) @ Falcons (12-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by .... hmm .... 7?
Actual Line: ATL by 14.5

Oh my goodness. Apparently the oddsmarkers really think Atlanta's going to go all out in this game. I guess they do need to win to secure a bye. But their backups should be able to beat Carolina easily, right?

I'm taking the Panthers to cover. They can run the ball decently well and might be able to control the clock early and keep the score low. 14 points is a lot for a game that might be meaningless.

Interesting sub-story: this is probably Jimmy Claussen's last start as a Panther. It's at least 94% likely that Carolina drafts Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick in April. There's a 4% chance that Luck stays at Stanford, a 1% chance that Carolina stupidly sticks with Claussen, and a 1% chance that Claussen hires some goons to break Luck's knee with a crowbar.

My prediction: Luck is next year's Sam Bradford, and leads Carolina to a 9-7 record. Claussen rides the bench, and is traded to the Cardinals following the 2011 season. Why the Cardinals? Because they'll need a backup for Donovan McNabb, who keeps getting injured.

Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (5-10)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8.5
Actual Line: PIT by 5.5

Dang, I just realized I whiffed on this line because of Polamalu's injury. He might be the only defensive player in the NFL who swings a line by 3 points.

But this game should be all Pittsburgh. They need to win to secure the first-round bye, and unless Baltimore is being blown out by the Bengals early, Pittsburgh can't rest any starters.

One of the keys to this game is Peyton Hillis's ribs. He's questionable, leaning towards unlikely. No use getting your star running back hurt in week 17. It would be wise to sit him. And if Hillis sits, Colt McCoy is going to have a long day against the Steelers blitzing fiends. They won't miss Polamalu too much because Cleveland has no receivers.

And doesn't it kind of seem like Roethlisberger is due for a big 3 TD game? I'll take Pittsburgh to win, 27-14.

Bengals (4-11) @ Ravens (11-4)
Predicted Line: BAL by 10.5
Actual Line: BAL by 10

This could be similar to the Saints situation, where someone calls down to the sideline and lets Harbaugh know that the Steelers are up big and it's time to pull the starters. Unless Pittsburgh loses, Baltimore is a Wildcard.

For that reason, and because Carson Palmer seems to be playing a lot harder now that TO and Ocho are gone, I'm taking the Bengals. 10 points in another potentially meaningless game? I think Vegas is going to lose a lot of money this week. Wait ... nope 54% of betting is on Baltimore. Never mind.

Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (13-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 11.5
Actual Line: NE by 3.5

Really? Bill Belichick is going to rest his starters?

Consider me skeptical. That guy has no soul. And even if he does, Miami looks completely uninterested in playing football right now, especially in freezing temperatures against a hostile crowd. Not to mention this will likely be Chad Henne's last start as a Dolphin, and the running game is awful.

But like I said, the starters will start. Brady will do his thing. He'll put a stranglehold on the MVP chatter (if he hasn't already) with 3 TDs and no INTs in the first half, and then he'll sit. Miami won't exactly mount a comeback. Pats win 27-13, and Brady finishes the season with 37 TDs and 4 INTs - one of the best seasons in NFL history.

Bills (4-11) @ Jets (10-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: NYJ by 1

The Jets are the 6 seed unless they win, the Ravens win, and the Steelers lose. Chances of that happening: 5%. And all that does is bump them up to the 5 seed, which means they'll play the Colts instead of the Chiefs, unless the Chiefs lose and Colts win, but either way, it doesn't matter. The only advantage in winning this game for the Jets is it might mean they don't have to play the Patriots until the AFC Championship. But is playing Pittsburgh really a much better option?

Nah, I think Sexy Rexy will sit his starters, especially the ailing Sanchez, and probably Revis and Scott and Harris as well.

The question, though, is: are the Jets backups better than the Bills starters? Plus, the Bills might actually want to lose (subconsciously of course) so they get a better draft pick, and can take Patrick Peterson #2. And let's not get carried away with the Sanchez talk - Mark Brunnel is capable. He's thrown for 32,000 yards in his career. And all he has to do is hand the ball to the third string RB a bunch of times. The Jets are deep. Cotchery and Brad Smith are the backup WRs, and they could start for plenty of teams. They won't struggle to score on the Bills. I actually like the Jets backups to win big.

Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (5-10)
Predicted Line: SF by 7
Actual Line: SF by 6

Ah, what a game. 49ers interim coach Jim Tomsula (who earned his reputation coaching the defensive line of the Scottish Claymores) against Cardinals third string QB John Skelton, the rookie from Fordham who was MVP of the Liberty Cup Bowl game last season.

This should be stunning.

I'll go with Arizona. Not sure why San Fran keeps getting favored by such high margins when their point differential is (-72) this year.

Chargers (8-7) @ Broncos (4-11)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3.5

Neither of these teams have anything to play for, right?

What about pride? (Cue the sappy music). Phillip Rivers nearly had an MVP season, and only missed the playoffs because his team might have the worst special teams in the history of sports. And Tim Tebow ... has the HEART ... of a CHAMPION!!!!

Sorry. I don't know ... I'm going to take Denver, and assume that San Diego just doesn't give a damn about this game.

Jags (8-7) @ Texans (5-10)
Predicted Line: JAC by 4
Actual Line: JAC by 2.5

Last week, Mo-Jo missed the game and Garrard played. This week, it's reversed. Jones-Drew will play, but it also appears that Trent Edwards will start at quarterback for Jacksonville. Don't they realize that they could still make the playoffs?? Why are they benching their starting quarterback in a must-win week 17 game??? He doesn't have a broken leg, he has a freaking broken finger!! Kobe Bryant's been playing with a broken finger for two seasons. Tough it up Garrard!

I'm taking Houston for three reasons:
1) The only reason Jacksonville is favored is because they need to win this game, and fans assume they'll try harder. Not necessarily true. This line should be HOU by a point.
2) Trent Edwards absolutely sucks.
3) Gary Kubiak is playing for his coaching job more than anyone else this week, except maybe Rich Rodriguez. Everyone knows he should be fired, but Houston sort of loves him. If he can beat up the Jags and win a meaningful game, it just might save his job.

Remember, teams that NEED to win aren't necessarily very good in the first place.

Titans (6-9) @ Colts (9-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 7.5
Actual Line: IND by 10

Wow. When Peyton Manning needs to win, he really gets public support. A ten point spread? That's insane, considering Indy hasn't blown a team out since week 2.

But that being said, I'm taking the Colts just like 80% of the world. Not so much because they need to win, but because Tennessee stinks. They didn't try at all last week, and likely won't try again. Plus, despite all the talk about how "Indy can't stop the run," they held their last two opponents to an average of 75 rushing yards and 3.5 YPC. That was Jones-Drew and McFadden. They should be able to slow down Chris Johnson as well. Speaking of CJ2K ...

Remember back in August, when he declared his goal for this season was to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Turns out he shouldn't have said that, because Dickerson wasn't too excited about his record being treated lightly. But there's still a chance -all Sonic needs is to rush for 780 yards against the Colts.

Giants (9-6) @ Redskins (6-9)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4
Actual Line: NYG by 4

Two weeks in a row, Philly screwed the Giants. Last week they had the now-famous comeback which culminated in a crazy punt return. But on Tuesday, they hurt the Giants again by getting blown out by the Vikings. Why is this significant? Because it locked up the #2 seed for Chicago, which means the Bears will rest the starters in Lambeau, which means Green Bay should win easily, and if Green Bay wins the Giants are out, as are the Bucs. So really, a Giants win here only matters if the Packers also lose.

But that doesn't mean the G-Men won't bring it, and this is a case where the team that needs to win actually is good. They've just had some bad luck, a brutal schedule, and tons of turnovers. Against Rex Grossman and the schizophrenic Redskins, they should get back on track. I think they'll win big. Washington's offensive line is no match for Tuck and Co. And you've got the 25th ranked rushing defense against the 5th ranked rushing offense.

Giants 30-10. Shanahan fired?

Bears (11-4) @ Packers (9-6)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 10

As I mentioned, the Eagles' loss makes the Bears the #2 seed. This game means nothing to them. Unless the Falcons and Saints lose, in which case a win makes Chicago the #1 seed and gives them homefield throughout. Since those games are at 1:00 and this game is at 4:15, they'll know by kickoff whether or not to try. Chances of Atlanta losing to Carolina are miniscule. So let's just assume Chicago rests Cutler, Forte, Peppers, Urlacher, and the rest of the important players.

I know Chicago and Green Bay have a fierce rivalry, and some people are using that argument to say Chicago should play their starters. But Lovie Smith is not Bill Belichick. The two times Lovie had a bye clinched in week 17 he lost by 24 and 19. He's not going to risk losing his stars for the playoffs.

And guess what? Even if the Bears were playing full force, I'd still take Green Bay -10. They are a much, much better team. Did you see Aaron Rodgers last week? That might have been the best game of his career. Green Bay is the Playoff Darkhorse.

Cowboys (5-10) @ Eagles (10-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3

The Eagles have the 3 seed. Nothing can change that.

Andy Reid is the only honest coach in the NFL, apparently: he's already announced that Vick, McCoy, Maclin, Jackson, Peters, Samuel, Cole, Patterson, and Mikell will sit on the bench and watch. No mind games. No nonsense. Just a solid answer.

I'd like to thank Andy for making this pick easy for me. As much as I like Kevin Kolb, the prospect of him passing to Riley Cooper and Clay Harbor doesn't excite me. Dallas will try, because they like their coach, and they'll win easily. I feel bad for Philly fans who attend this game.

Side story: did you know that Dallas's starting QB for this game will be Stephen McGee? I didn't. I knew Kitna got hurt last week, but for some reason never bothered to check who the 3rd string guy was. Turns out McGee, who sounds like a black guy but is actually extremely white, is pretty good. He was 11 for 17 last week with a TD and no turnovers. He'll be auditioning for the role of Tony Romo's 2011 backup.

**Update: line has been changed to PHI by 6.5. I'm not sure why. Probably because of Stephen McGee. I'm still going with the Cowboys.

Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (6-9)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 3

Why are the Rams favored on the road in Seattle in this must-win game for the NFC West (*ahem) 'Championship' and the right to be clobbered by the Saints? Because, Matt Hasselbeck has a strained hip and will sit out. Charlie Whitehurst is just not good at all. Sucks to be a Seattle fan. First the Sonics left, now this. At least they have the only baseball team in the AL to lose 100 games.

I am all over the Rams, for just so many reasons.

-They are a better team
-I hate Pete Carroll
-I love Sam Bradford
-I just would hate to see a 7-9 team make the playoffs.

Prediction: Seattle loses, cuts Hasselbeck this summer, and begins 2011 with none other than Carson Palmer starting at quarterback. Only question in my mind is whether or not they get Matt Leinart as the backup.

Enjoy week 17 everyone and as always, Go Lions!

The Pro Bowl is Stupid

Remember a couple seasons ago, when Allen Iverson was an All Star despite being only the seventh best player on his own crappy team? He scored 5 points a game off the bench, faked multiple injuries, and missed 63% of his shots. Yet he started in the All Star game, ahead of guys who were scoring 22 a night and leading their teams to the playoffs. That's what the NFL is quickly becomming. A joke. Yesterday, the Pro Bowl rosters were announced. And they made me cringe.

Just like in the NBA, making the Pro Bowl has nothing to do with your performance. It used to, a couple seasons ago, but apparently those days are done. Now it's a freakin popularity contest.

The only reason it upsets me is because players' legacies are at stake. When Iverson retires, they'll call him an "11 time All Star," when really they should say "he played about 6 great seasons, 2 mediocre seasons, and then he sucked the life out of his teammates for 3 years." He'll make the Hall of Fame because of his many All Star appearances, even though the last 4 of them were a farce!

Now it's happening in the NFL. Guys made the Pro Bowl simply because of the size of their name. I'm surprised Favre and his sub-70 passer rating didn't make it. It's unbelievable.

No wonder it's so hard to predict the NFL during the preseason. You look at the Cowboys and say "Wow, this team has five Pro Bowl starters! They must be good!"

But Gurode and Ratliff had HORRENDOUS seasons. You could argue that Andre Gurode was the worst offensive lineman in the entire NFL. His bone-headed penalties cost the Cowboys not one, but two games! And he's starting in the Pro Bowl?? Those morons made the team for one reason: because they have a big blue star on their helmet. Jason Witten and DeMarcus Ware had pretty good seasons, but they shouldn't be starting ahead of Vernon Davis and Justin Tuck. Even the Cowboys' punter made the team! What a stupid outrage!

The Cowboys have more Pro Bowlers than the entire NFC West!! Okay, maybe that's not a good example...

Around this time, each and every year, the pundits and analysts love to talk about one topic above all topics: Pro Bowl Snubs! It gets people reaaally riled up. Their faces turn red as they read impressive stats and complain about their favorite player missing the team. I did it a couple years ago when Calvin Johnson was snubbed despite being the best receiver in the NFC, statistically and in real-life.

But this year ... what's the point? I mean, I could moan about how Dominic Raiola deserves the Pro Bowl over Gurode, or how Stefan Logan should have made it instead of Hester, or how Kyle VandenBosch could have made the team ahead of Justin Smith or Ware. But why? It's not going to change the stupid system.

But here's what really bugs me: calling a guy a Snub who wasn't actually a snub. This year, it's happening all over the place, especially at the skill positions.

Peyton Hillis. Aaron Rodgers. Hakeem Nicks. Matt Cassel.

Yes, they all had very solid seasons. Yes, they all technically "deserved" to make the Pro Bowl, meaning the played very well and had great numbers. But guess what? There were at least 3 guys at their respective positions who simply had better seasons. Sorry. Don't give me a Snub without telling me which Pro Bowler to omit.

People want Hillis on the Pro Bowl team. I can see why, he was amazing. But who are you going to take off? Foster (1st in rushing years), Charles (2nd) or Jones-Drew (4th)? Hillis ranks 10th. He also plays for a 5-10 team, and his YPC isn't as good as those three. Come off it.

The skill positions are generally easy. Just take the guys with the best stats. It rarely gets confusing. This year the only mistake was Reggie Wayne making the team ahead of Mike Wallace. Wallace had twice as many TDs and half as many drops. Wayne was a liability most of the season.

But overall, the skill positions were okay. It's the linemen and the defensive players that are so outrageoulsy chosen. Without futher ado, here are the 12 worst Pro Bowl selections, followed by who should have been chosen in their stead. These are in no particular order.

1) Let's start with Darelle Revis. Since when can you miss three games with injury, record only 26 tackles, have zero interceptions, and yet make the Pro Bowl? I know he's got a cool nickname and a lockdown reputation, but let's see at least one big play before we make the guy a Pro Bowl starter. Jets fans would contend that he wasn't even their best cornerback. Who should have made it: Champ Bailey! He played for an awful defense, but still reclaimed his role as a Lockdown corner. He had one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career.

2) Ray Lewis. Is he a future Hall of Famer? No doubt. Is he the best middle linebacker of all time? Yes. If he the best defensive player since Lawrence Taylor? Absolutely. But that doesnt mean he has to make the Pro Bowl every year. He was once again dominant, but he shouldn't have made the team over Steelers linebacker Lawerence Timmons.

3) Staying in Baltimore, let's go with Terrell Suggs. Just like Lewis, he made the team mostly because of his name and the reputation of the Ravens as an elite defense (they actually ranked just 8th overall). One Raven definitely deserved to make the team. That was DT Haloti Ngata. But Suggs should have been passed over for KC's Tamba Hali, who had more sacks, more forced fumbles, more tackles, and didn't have the benefit of playing next to Ngata and Lewis. Hali was probably the biggest Actual Snub.

4) Maurkice Pouncey, center for Pittsburgh. Did you see the Steelers play this year? Their offensive line was a joke. Absolutely horrendous. Pouncey made the team simply because he was the only guy who didn't get hurt. But no way he should have made the team over Baltimore's Matt Birk. That's just stupid. Kudos to the voters for not electing Jeff Saturday, however. Normally he gets in just on reputation. This season the Colts O-line was atrocious, so I'm glad he didn't make it.

5) The NFC Safety position. Nick Collins for Green Bay was a good pick, but Antrelle Rolle and Adrian Wilson made the team because they are household names and have big contracts. But they absolutely didn't deserve it, especially not Wilson, who by his own admission had a horrible season. Instead, Quintin Mikell, who according to profootballfocus.com was the best overall safety in run defense AND led all safeties in passes broken up, should have made the team, along with Malcolm Jenkins from the Saints.

6) Charles Woodson. Last year he won defensive player of the year despite being only the 4th best choice. This year, he starts in the Pro Bowl despite being the second best cornerback on his own team. Dare I say, my favorite college player of all time is becomming overrated? Antoine Winfield should have made the team. And for that matter, DeAngelo Hall only made the Pro Bowl because Jay Cutler tossed him 4 INTs in one game. Hall should be switched with Atlanta's Brent Grimes, who had an outstanding year.

7) Let's get to the offensive linemen. I already touched on Andre Gurode, possibly the worst Pro Bowl choice of all time. He should immediately be replaced by Harvey Dahl from Atlanta. Then there's Jason Peters, who makes his second straight undeserved Pro Bowl thanks to his large contract. Instead of Peters, how about Kareem McKenzie from the Giants, who was quietly better than teammates O'Hara and Snee, both of whom did make the Pro Bowl. Last but not least, Jordan Gross. He is a great player stuck on the 2-13 Panthers, and I feel bad for him. But he should not have made the Pro Bowl ahead of Tampa's Donald Penn, who had a terrific season protecting Josh Freeman. The fact that no Bucs made the Pro Bowl is an outrage.

8) Moving to the AFC, Joe Thomas and Jake Long were obvious picks, and should continue to be Pro Bowlers for the next five years. The other tackle position is occupied by D'Brickashaw Ferguson, which I'm okay with. I do believe that Ferguson would be a nobody if his first name was something normal like Dan. But that spot isn't a major conern to me, though Cincinnati's Andrew Whitworth deserved it too. Making the Pro Bowl in the AFC at the tackle position is going to be extremely difficult until Long or Thomas switch conferences.

At guard, I'm fine with Dielman and Waters. Great picks. They should be the starters. Congrats to the voters on getting that right. But Logan Mankins? Seriously? All he did was miss the first 8 games with a contract holdout. Yes he came back and played great, but you can't be a Pro Bowler if you play just half the season. Sorry. If you could, LaRon Landry and Aqib Talib and Dallas Clark and plenty of others would make the team too. Mankins made it on reputation, because he's a Patriot, and because, well, he is extremely good. But let's give the honor to somehow who played all 16 games. Like Ben Grubbs (BAL). Or Vince Manuwai (JAC). Or Brandon Moore (NYJ). Or even Eric Steinbach (CLE). Any of those guys over Mankins. I'd go with Grubbs.

9) One last offensive lineman, and that's Jahri Evans of the Saints, also known as the highest paid offensive lineman in NFL history. His contract made him famous, and his fame made his a Pro Bowler. He'll likely make the next 10 Pro Bowls. But unlike Thomas and Long, he's not a dominant player on every snap. He's been inconsistent, he's been penalized 10 times, and he's struggled - and that's putting it nicely - in the running game. Let's ignore contracts and give the starting job to someone who earned it. Like Josh Sitton from the Packers, who hasn't allowed a sack all season, and ranks as the #1 overall guard on PFF.com.

10) Tony Gonzalez. I kind of touched on this earlier, but Gonzo making the team ahead of Vernon Davis was a travesty. Just look at the stats, they speak for themselves:

TG - 64 catches, 603 yards, 5 TDs, 9.4 YPC,
VD - 53 catches, 818 yards, 6 TDs, 15.4 YPC.

Add in the fact that Davis missed two games with injuries, and the fact that Davis is a much better blocker, and you have a legitimate skill position Snub. Gonzalez will get plenty of much-deserved acclamation when he's inducted into the Hall of Fame, but let's not take away the Pro Bowl from a young player who earned it.

11) Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Colts duo of DEs combined for 20 sacks and 6 fumbles forced. But 5 of those fumbles were Freeney's, and he also faced more double teams. Mathis's spot should have gone to Houston's Mario Williams, who had a modest season with 8.5 sacks, but faces a double team on every single snap and plays on an awful defense. Mario should be similar to Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Nnamdi Asomugha, Troy Polamalu and Patrick Willis - a Pro Bowler every season, as long as he stays healthy. Pretty close to joining that list is Ndamukong Suh. The other DE spot in the AFC correctly went to Jason Babin of the Titans.

12) Lastly, I'm going with Jay Ratliff. I already mentioned him earlier. He has more reputation that he knows what to do with, but he anchored the Cowboys' mediocre 14th ranked rush defense. Suh and Justin Smith were the correct choices at interior linemen in the NFC, but Ratliff should be replaced by Kevin Williams of the Vikings. Or Trent Cole, who is a DE, but could be moved to DT, since he is the best run-stuffing DE in the league. Either way, Ratliff belongs at home, not in the Pro Bowl.

So there you go. My two cents on the stupid Pro Bowl.

As for the year-end awards, MVP is easy (Brady), ROYs are easy (Bradford, Suh), and Comeback Player is super easy (Vick.)

D-MVP is a tough battle, as is Coach of the Year. Lots of deserving candidates for both. I'll wait until after week 17 to make my final picks, but for now these would be my top 5 lists for each:

D-MVP
1. Clay Matthews - 12.5 sacks, 2 fumbles, 1 INT - despite lingering shin problems.
2. Troy Polamalu -Missed a couple late games due to injury, but anchors the league's best defense.
3. Cameron Wake - Leads the NFL in sacks, but his team isn't going to the playoffs.
4. Tamba Hali - Like I said, this is my ballot. No way he could actually win.
5. Haloti Ngata - Absolute beast, but DTs rarely win this award.

Coach
1. Bill Bellichick - Smart enough to trade Moss before he self-destructed; good enough to have the league's best record.
2. Andy Reid - Smart enough to start Vick. Enough said.
3. Raheem Morris - He should win the award IF Tampa beats the Saints next week. That's a very big if.
4. Mike Tomlin - Navigated the trials of a Rapist QB, an injured O-line, and a skin-and-bones receiving crew. Still went 12-4.
5. Mike Smith - Atlanta's going to finish 13-3. That's pretty good right?

If Rex Ryan or Todd Haley wins the award, I'm going to scream. Haley won the AFC West because nobody else was above .500, and Ryan won 10 games but went 2-4 against playoff teams.

Predictions: Polamalu for D-MVP, Reid for Coach.

Stay tuned for week 17 picks.

BTW: I went 10-6 last week for a 129-107-4 overall record.

Also, stay tuned for the Top 50 NBA Players list, which has been changed to a Top 75.

Peace.

2012 ... Who Will Run Against Obama??

A few months ago, I wrote what I've been wanting to write since 2008 - that Sarah Palin is a moron. If she actually earned the Republican nomination, it would ensure another landslide victory for Obama and 4 more years of his administration. What I didn't do, and probably should have, was talk about the other potential Republican candidates.


Recent CNN polls have showed Palin's popularity is slipping, even among Conservatives, and people are finally starting to realize that somebody other than her is going to have to run in 2012. I'm proud of the American people for finally realizing how stupid she is, but disappointed that it took so dang long.

So, that raises the obvious question: who will run against Obama? Who stands the best chance? Who can actually beat him?


In no particular order, here are some options:


1) Mitt Romney, Governor of Massachusetts.
Probably the most likely, but not necessarily the guy with the best chance. Like Obama, he's a Harvard guy. He's also a Mormon, a former missionary, and a pretty good lookin guy. He narrowly lost to McCain last time. Romney's potential flaw: we've seen him before. He lacks that freshness that politics often requires.


2) Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas
My parent's top pick, Huckabee is outspokenly Christian and not afraid to mingle politics with religion. This will endear him to many, but also cost him many moderate votes. He might be too right-wing. Whoever beats Obama will have to secure not only the Religious Right, but also the moderates and minorities. That will be his biggest challenge.


3) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana
Sort of a rising star among Republicans, Daniels has the education and experience to go toe-to-toe with Obama and beat him. His greatest challenge will be garnering enough attention to win the Primaries.


4) Ron Paul, US Representate from Texas
He's run for President twice as a Libertarian, but is rumored to run under the Republican ticket in 2012. He's as small-government as they come. What's the opposite of a Socialist? A capitalist? I guess maybe that's what Liberatarian means. Anyway, he's probaby too old (75).


5) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota
This is one of my favorites. He's been rumored to run since early 2009, and was expected to be McCain's VP pick before McCain stupidly picked Palin. He's a lawyer, a Baptist, and a hockey player. He's pretty young, decently good looking, and doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He just might have the newness and youth needed to excite the Republican party and take down Obama. But first he needs to make a name for himself (write a book!) and become a true contender in the minds of voters. Best way to do that? Start going by the nickname T-Paw.


6) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida
If not for his last name, he might have a chance. But there's no way another Bush is getting into the White House for another 300 years.

7) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi
Here's another unknown fellow who actually has a decent chance. He made a name for himself for the way he handled Hurricane Katrina, and has become beloved in the South much like Rudy Guiliana was after 9/11. He's a former lawyer and lobbyist, and might be a strong enough leader to take the Republican party under his wing and become the new face of the party. Plus he has an interesting name, which helps.


8) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House
He's been rumored to run for President since 1996, but appears poised to finally make his move in 2012. Question is, is he too late? He's now 67 years old, and while he carries a well-known name, it's not exactly known for all the right reasons. He's been married 3 times, he was embroiled in an ugly ethics scandal, and consequently resigned. He's certain to have a strong following, but like Romney, I don't think he has the freshness needed to beat Obama.


9) Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida
If you want young and fresh, here's your guy. He's just 39 years old, but Obama was just 47 and JFK was 43 when they were elected. Maybe the Republicans' best chance is to roll with the young son of Cuban exiles. Check out his credentials:


-Graduated top of the class from University of Miami Law School;
-Played college football at Tarkio College;
-Is married to a former Miami Dolphins cheerleader;
-Speaks fluent Spanis - which means he can do campaign speeches without a translator;
-His dad was a bartender, and his mom was a hotel housekeeper.


If the Republicans are ready to mix things up and go full-force after the minority and lower-class vote, Rubio is the guy. The only question is whether he could get votes from the old grumpy white guys. He probably won't win the Primary (if he actually runs), but if he does, he'll have a legit shot against Obama. My guess is that he doesn't run, but could be elected President in 2016, especially if Obama wins in '12. Remember the name: Marco Rubio.


Last but not least, my personal favorite...


10) Scott Brown, Senator from Massachusetts
That's right, a Republican from Massachusetts. If that sounds weird to you, that's because he's the first GOP Senator from that state since 1972. And that's just one of his many accomplishments:

-Active member of the U.S. National Guard for over 30 years; ranks as a Lieutenant Colonel;
-Attended Law School at Boston College;
-Worked as a model for Cosmopolitan magazine;
-Been in politics since 1992;
-Identifies himself as "socially moderate but fiscally conservative;"
-Has a memoir to be released in early 2011;
-His daughter, Ayla, was a semi-finalist on season 5 of American Idol;


He is personally against same-sex marriage and abortion, but doesn't believe they should be made illegal. He also was one of few Republican senators who voted in favor of lifting the ban on Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Those things will make him unpopular among super Conservatives (like Palin, who has publicly bashed him), but will give him a fighting chance against Obama if he were to win the Primary.


A 51 year old guy who looks like James Bond and actually thinks for himself? Sounds like a good Candidate to me.


So there you have it. Ten candidates who are infinitely better than Sarah Palin.

A Top 10 List

I've decided to broaden my horizons and write about more stuff than just football. Especially because it's week 16 already and in 2 months I won't know what to write about. So here is a list of the 10 movies I've seen the most times, in my estimation. Not sure why ... just something I've thought about before. I found myself surprised by the results.

10. The Fugitive & Air Force One (tie)
Harrison Ford basically plays the same character in these two movies. He walks, talks, and grimaces in exactly the same way. Both movies have laughably implausible plots and weak supporting acting. Both movies are way over-the-top and feature vengeful one-liners through gritted teeth (Get off my plane; You missed your stop). Basically, these are the exact same movie. And for some sick, inexplicable reason, I love them both. Estimated views: 11

9. Happy Gilmore
From 1996 to 2003, Adam Sandler basically made the same movie 10 times, and it got progressively less funny each time. He always has a five-letter name which ends in 'Y' (Happy, Billy, Robby, Bobby, Sonny, Nicky, Barry, Davey, Henry) and often dates a girl who's initials are 'V.V.' (Virginia Venit, Vicki Vallencourt, Valerie Veran, Veroncia Vaughn). Then in 2004 he started attempting halfway serious movies, such as Spanglish and The Longest Yard, which were terrible. After a rare gem with Reign Over Me (a surprisingly brilliant film), Sandler fell back into the mold with garbage films such as Chuck & Larry and The Zohan. His career can basically be summarized with the phrase: "Make as much money as you can, and don't worry about quality." Anyway, the reason I brought it up is because Happy Gilmore, Sandler's first major success, was the origin from which all the crappy films spawned. And it was brilliant. It's a rare movie that gets funnier each time, and is acted with such perfect comedic timing and expression that it has become timeless. I never get tired of Happy Gilmore. Estimated views: 13

8. The Patriot & Braveheart (tie)
I can't stand Mel Gibson, but I loved these movies before I found out what a psychopath he is. The more you watch these two movies, the more you realize how nearly identical they are - the rise from reluctant family man to vengeful warrior to fearless leader to ultimately, freedom. Both movies have awesome battle scenes where Mel's troop appears to be outnumbered but has secret friends hiding in ambush; both movies have truly atrocious villains; both movies have the signature Mel Gibson Inspirational Battle Speech; both movies have gut-sinking moments of despair (when Gabriel is killed by the British jerk; when Robert the Bruce betrays Wallace), and both movies, of course, have FREEEEEDOOMMMMMMMM.
Estimated views: 14 each

7. Dumb and Dumber
Perfect blend of subtlety and stupidity. Jim Carrey at his absolute best. Estimated views: 17

6. Prefontaine
I used to watch this about 5 times a year during high school. Maybe the most underrated sports movie of all time. A great story. Estimated views: 19.

5. Zoolander
Inflated on this list because once during a game of Risk I watched it 3 times in a row. A very underrated comedy which gets funnier every time you watch it, similar to Happy Gilmore. Ben Stiller's only truly hilarious performance. I contend that he was in fact NOT funny in Meet the Parents (or anything else), but instead was carried by Owen Wilson and Robert DeNiro. But in Zoolander, he's positively perfect. Estimated views: 20

4. Napoleon Dynamite
Also inflated because I once watched it 5 times in one day during J-Term at Cornerstone. My friend Curt and I basically studied this movie and only quote the obscure lines that people don't remember. Such as "Why are you so sweaty?" or "Do the chickens have large talons?" Estimated views - 22

3. Tommy Boy
Still the funniest movie I've ever seen and probably always will be. The only movie that I can quote from start to finish. Estimated views - 25

2. Fight Club & Boondock Saints (Tie)
The two movies which define my college experience. Testosterone, humor, guns, lots of swearing, and a profundity which you wouldn't expect. Estimated views - 26 each.

1. I Heart Huckabees
For a while, this was the only movie I owned. I watched it probably 10 times during the summer of 2007. I love the writing of this movie, and literally catch something new every time I see it. Brilliant script; brilliant performances by Dustin Hoffman and Mark Wahlberg. Just a really, really, smartly-made movie. Estimated times I've seen it - 27.

Honorable Mention:

1. American History X
I've seen it a lot, probably 6 or 7 times, but it's a little hard to watch because of the curb scene and the prison scene. If you've seen it, you know what I mean. Edward Norton gives arguably a top 10 acting performance in movie history.

2. Green Street Hooligans
Another prototypical college movie. This is basically Fight Club minus the nihilism, plus British soccer gangs. Elijah Wood is somehow likeable and super annoying at the same time.

3. Brick
I think I've seen it 7 or 8 times, and I hope that one day it surpasses Fugitive/Air Force One on the top 10 list. A real Makes You Think movie, and a phenomenal acting job by Joseph Gordon-Levitt. Very interesting. Not for the faint of heart, or the easily distracted.


So there you go. Hope you enjoyed it. Peace out and Merry Christmas.

Week 16 Picks

I'm skipping the week 15 wrap up, because it's already Thursday. Let me just quickly say that:

the Eagles comeback was insane, the Pats look unbeatable, so do the Falcons, the Steelers better get Polamalu back for the playoffs or they're toast, the 6-10 Rams might host the 12-4 Saints in the Wildcard round, if you honestly believe Brett Favre's career is over then you are a moron, and the Lions have won 2 straight. For the week I went 7-9, so I'm 119-101-4, and 9-6 on the Lions.

Ok, here's the week 16 picks:

Panthers @ Steelers - Thursday night
Predicted Line: PIT by 14
Actual Line: PIT by 14

With Carolina on a magnificent one-game winning streak and Troy Polamalu resting his injured ankle, you might think I'm tempted to take the Panthers. But I'm not.

This is still a lousy rookie QB, on the road, against a defense with 6 Pro Bowlers. Pittsburgh is vulnerable to great offenses when Troy is out, but fortunately for them, Carolina is not a great offense. In fact, they might be one of the worst offenses of all time. And since Jonathan Stewart is a through-the-tackles back with no pass-catching ability, I expect him to rumble about 16 times for about 40 yards, while Jimmy Claussen goes 7-19 for 85 yards and 2 INTs. In short, Pittsburgh will only need 6 points to win this game. And I think they'll score in the 30s. They don't want to risk playing a first round playoff game for many reasons, not the least of which is Troy's ankle.

"Hoz come dem Stellers uronny up by turteen?"

"Cuz is'a firs quarter ... come ooof it."

"Oh my gaaawd, nuh-uh."

I'll take Pittsburgh 31- 3.

Cowboys (5-9) @ Cardinals (4-10)
Predicted Line: DAL by 7
Actual Line: DAL by 7

A pretty high spread for a road favorite, but Dallas is not a 5-9 team - they are more like a 10-4 team who didn't try for the first eight weeks. And Arizona is a 4-10 team which is actually more like a 1-13 team. Despite being just one game apart in the standings, these teams couldn't be more different from a talent perspective. 90% of the betting action is on Dallas. I'll take them too.

Patriots (12-2) @ Bills (4-10)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 9

Another heavy road favorite, and this one is more tricky. Buffalo tends to cover large spreads at home, and New England might not be fully focused as they prepare for the postseason. They need to secure homefield, so they won't rest any starters, but they know it only takes a 70% effort to beat the Bills.

The key to covering a 9 point spread is controlling the clock. Buffalo needs to run on New England and move the chains to keep it close. They just might be able to do that. Patriots rank 15th against the run. Their defense style is bend-but-don't-break. Ryan Fitzpatrick is sort of a covering fiend. I'll take the Bills ATS, but the Pats will win 31-24.

Jets (10-4) @ Bears (10-4)
Predicted Line: CHI by 1.5
Actual Line: CHI by 1

Two 10-4 teams which aren't nearly as good as their records indicate. Sadly, one of these jokes is going to be 11-4, and I guess I hope it's the Bears, though I can't say I've ever routed for Jay Cutler before. But Rex Ryan and his wall-forming, feet-loving, trash-talking egomaniacal bullcrap is probably my least favorite thing about the NFL right now. He's like the Sarah Palin of football. I just don't want to hear about him. Please make him go away.

It's going to be a snowy, low-scoring game between two mistake-prone quarterbacks and shaky running games. Both defenses are solid. Revis will shut down Knox; Peppers will pressure Sanchez. Predictably, both teams will kind of suck. Chicago probably eeks out a close game, 14-17.

Ravens (10-4) @ Browns (5-9)
Predicted Line: BAL by 5
Actual Line: BAL by 3.5

A win would clinch the playoffs for Baltimore and keep them in contention for a first round bye. Cleveland has nothing to play for after losing to the Bengals last week. Ravens have won the last 5 meetings, and I think it'll easily become 6.

I'm tempted to pick Cleveland to cover and hope Baltimore wins by a field goal, but I'll play it safe and take the favorite. Ravens 24-20.

Titans (6-8) @ Chiefs (9-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 7
Actual Line: KC by 5

My initial reaction: Why is this line so low?

But then I realized ... these teams are nearly identical. That they have such different records is just a reflection of the divisions they are in. Examine the similarities:

-Bad quarterbacks who are weirdly overrated
-Elite running backs with amazing speed
-Inconsistent receivers who sometimes have 3 TDs and sometimes have zero catches
-Average offensive lines with 1 or 2 studs
-Underrated stud DEs (Jason Babin on TEN, Tamba Hali on KC)
-Pretty good linebackers
-Lousy secondaries but one solid corner

Having already taken the favorite in the first five contests, I want to give Tennessee the benefit of the doubt. I think they'll keep this game close and possibly win outright. Jeff Fisher seems to have them refocused and they would love to ruin KC's season. I'll take the Titans.

49ers (5-9) @ Rams (6-10)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 2.5

Ah yes, the classic week 16 matchup between division rivals who are fighting for a playoff birth with combined records of 11-19. How riveting.

All season, St. Louis has been completely disrespected by Vegas, while San Fran has been completely overrated. This game is the culmination. How are they suggesting that the 49ers (without Frank Gore!) are the better team?? How egregiously irresponsible!

Without overthinking it, I'm going to take the Rams, 17-20. The line being 2.5 instead of 3 makes me feel even better about this pick.

If the Rams do win, it means 3 things:
1) Sam Bradford led his team to the playoffs as a rookie and secured the ROY which he probably already secured 3 weeks ago
2) Mike Singletary will be a defensive coordinator next year
3) San Fran will be taking a QB in April's draft. Probably either Mallet or Newton.

Lions (4-10) @ Dolphins (7-7)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4.5
Actual Line: MIA by 3.5

Aha! For the first time all year, Detroit gets respect from the oddsmakers!

And let's be honest, they deserve it. Two weeks in a row they've defeated potential playoff teams, and both wins were pretty legit. The defense is playing extremely well (11 sacks in the last 3 games) and the offense is finally using its greatest weapon (Megatron had 10 catches for 152 yards last week, one of his best career games) now that Drew Stanton is under center. Now, Shaun Hill should be back in the lineup, and that'll only make the offense better. No offense to Stanton - he did a nice job of competing - but Hill clearly has a better arm and a better understanding of the playbook.

Miami is sort of in a funk right now. They just got eliminated from the playoffs with a crushing home loss to Buffalo, and have to be contemplating their future with Chad Henne. He's suddenly looking very much like the inaccurate stiff he was at U of M. They've struggled to run the ball lately, largely due to the ineffectiveness of Brandon Marshall.

Defensively they rank 6th against the pass, 6th against the run, and 4th overall, while OLB Cameron Wake now leads the NFL in sacks with 14. You would think I'd be terrified of facing them, but for some reason I'm not. I certainly don't like Jeff Backus's chances of containing Wake around the corner, but I think Mo Morris is a solid blocker in the backfield and he'll get plenty of snaps. I should also be worried about corner Vontae Davis taking on Calvin (he's emerged as a legitimate lockdown CB), but I just don't believe anyone can guard Calvin outside of Revis and Asomugha. It's going to require double coverage, and I like the way Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew are playing lately. Call me crazy, call me a total kool-aid-drinking overreactor, but I think the Lions will win this game straight up.

And that's all I have to say about that.

Redskins (5-9) @ Jaguars (8-6)
Predicted Line: JAC by 6
Actual Line: JAC by 7

As a semi-closet-Colts fan, this game angers me. Jacksonville does not belong in the playoffs. And yet Mike Shanahan refuses to play his best quarterback and is essentially forfeiting this game. Rex Grossman is an idiot. I don't care how many TDs he threw in a loss. It was a loss. He's not a winner, and he's not going to win this game either. Ugh. I don't know if you've seen any interviews of Shanny explaining his decision to bench McNabb (here's one), but his mannerisms are eerily reminiscent of President GW Bush. The squint, the ramlbing, the condescending smile. It's incredible that this guy won 2 Super Bowls. This whole thing just doubles my respect for John Elway; how did he win multiple championships with that jackass calling the shots?

Anyhow, I'm not fooled by Grossman's solid statistical game last week. Stats mean nothing if your team never has a chance to win. Carson Palmer has put up solid stats all year. Grossman is not a winner, and to start him over McNabb is just plain vindictive and assinine. The funny thing is - I don't even like McNabb, and he's been terrible this year! If anything, start John Beck!

All that being ranted, I still don't like taking the Jags to cover by 7. They aren't a high-powered offense, and their secondary stinks. On top of that, they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss to the Colts. They tend to play the Colts like it's their Super Bowl, and then follow it up with a letdown. Not saying they'll lose to Grossman, but I think it'll be closer than 7. I'll take the Jags by 3, 23-20.

Colts (8-6) @ Raiders (7-7)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: IND by 3

Strange as it sounds, these teams are actually pretty evenly matched, except of course at the quarterback position. With Austin Collie going onto IR (joining Dallas Clark), Manning be once again be without a possession receiver. His running game has been horrendous all year (all decade?), and his top receiver will be erased by Nnamdi Asomugha. So basically ... either Pierre Garcon has a monster game, or Oakland hangs around and makes this a close game.

My bet is on the latter. Darren McFadden should be able to shred the league's 28th ranked rush defense, which will make live a lot easier for Jason Campbell, who doesn't usually fare too well against great pass rushers. The Colts of course have Freeney and Mathis, but don't get to unleash them too often because of the awful run defense. Maybe they oughta trade their 1st round pick for a 400 pound DT and fix their defense? Just a thought.

Of course, 87% of the betting action is on Indy. Because who honestly thinks the Raiders can beat Peyton Manning and the Colts? Logic says take the Raiders and the points, but experience says don't pick against Manning when it matters. I'll go with Indy.

Chargers (8-6) @ Bengals (3-11)
Predicted Line: SD by 8
Actual Line: SD by 7.5

I've heard a lot of ESPN Radio folks say over the past week "Kansas City has two home games, while San Diego has to win twice on the road..." as an argument for why the Chiefs will win the AFC West. But most of those folks have failed to mention that San Diego plays against Cincinnati and Denver, who are a combined 6-22, while the Chiefs play the Titans (6-8) and Raiders (7-7). Who really has the easier schedule to end the season? It's gotta be the Chargers.

This game promises to be disgusting. Ochocinco and TO are both sitting out with "injuries" and Carson Palmer will be throwing pick-sixes all over the place. Phillip Rivers probably only needs to throw 10 passes in this blowout. Chargers win 42-7.

Texans (5-9) @ Broncos (3-11)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 3

That's four exact lines., and six have been guessed within a point. Not bad at all.

It's painful to even think about this game. The only question keeping me from taking the Texans is: did they quit on Gary Kubiak last week? I honestly don't know. I'm leaning towards yes. Last week, two of their players fought each other during the loss to Tennessee. But still, can I raelly pick Denver, who might be without their entire offense (AKA Knowshon Moreno)? The bottom line is: can I really place my trust in Tim Tebow?!?

To cover a 3 point spread as a home dog against a team which might have quit ... Yes. I absolutely can. Broncos win 27-20.

Seahawks (6-8) @ Bucs (8-6)
Predicted Line: TB by 7
Actual Line: TB by 6

Once again, Josh Freeman shouldn't be favored by a touchdown. He's a comeback kid. And the Tampa defense is completely shredded. This line would be too high against any team other than Seattle.

However, the Seahawks are completely worthless when they have to travel to the East Coast. They're 1-8 in their last 9 East Coast games, and 13-28 overall on the road since 2006. If this line were a few points higher I'd take Seattle, but I like my chances with Tampa by 6.

Giants (9-5) @ Packers (8-6)
Predicted Line: GB by 1
Actual Line: GB by 3

I guessed the line assuming Rodgers will play (which it sounds like is a safe assumption), but still missed 2 points too low. Can't believe the public overreaction following the Giants collapse. They're still a great football team, and they won't have the "emotional letdown" everyone thinks they'll have. Green Bay has too many injuries, even if Rodgers plays, and is completely one-dimensional on offense. That dimension is passing. This game should be in the snow. The Giants can run the ball extremely well. Can you see where I'm going with this? The Giants should win. I'm taking them with relative confidence.

Vikings (5-9) @ Eagles (10-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 13
Actual Line: PHI by 14

Oh man. I intentionally overguessed by 5 points (my first reaction was Eagles by 8), and I still shot too low. Guess the oddsmakers aren't big believers in Joe Webb, huh? Amazingly, 78% of the action is going on the Eagles to cover by two touchdowns.

I don't feel great about adding to that percentage. Adrian Peterson should be back in action, and Philly stinks against the run. This game should at least be somewhat close. Ish. Maybe Eagles by 10 or 13. But not 14. Heck, let's not forget that Leslie Frazier is a pretty stinking good coach, and the Vikings still have Jared Allen and Kevin Williams - two of the best defensive linemen in the NFC. This won't be the Michael Vick Cakewalk that you expect. I'll take Vikings and the points.

Saints (10-4) @ Falcons (12-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3.5
Actual Line: ATL by 2.5

Ouch. Major disrespect. Saints are the better team despite the Falcons' 12-2 record and 8 game winning streak?

It's still mathematically possible that Atlanta doesn't win the NFC South, but only if the Saints win this game and their next game, AND Atlanta would have to lose at home to Carolina. That's simply not going to happen. But it won't stop the Saints from trying.

This game has a pseudo-revenge factor after Atlanta beat the Saints in the Superdome thanks to a missed 19 yard field goal in OT. But remember, Matt Ryan is 99-2 at home or something like that, and Michael Turner is on a rampage. It's very hard not to pick Atlata. Especially with the line being less than 3. I'll take the Falcons, 30-27, in a preview of the NFC Championship game.

That's all I got. Go Lions.

And please cheer for my 5 fantasy teams which are playing in the Finals.
My QBs are Rodgers (x2), Vick (x2) and Josh Freeman.
My RBs include Jamaal Charles (x2), McFadden (x2), Blount (x2), and several others.
My WRs - A myriad of guys, but I've got Garcon and Andre Johnson thrice each.
My TEs - Celek, Boss, Moeaki, Cooley, and Tamme.
My DSTs - Miami (x2), Chargers, Steelers, and Bucs.

In 2 of the ESPN leagues, the championship is a two-week affair where they combine the scores from weeks 16 and 17. Weird, but kind of cool I guess.

Go Lions and Merry Christmas.

Sadness

Thanks to Malcolm Floyd's unexpected no-show, Adrian Peterson's last-minute scratch, Reggie Wayne's stinkbomb, and 35 freaking points for Ray Rice, I have been eliminated from the A League.

If I had played either of the other teams in the playoffs, I'd have won comfortably and would be playing for $240. But instead I played the team with Ray Rice and Drew Brees, also known as my stupid freaking brother, and now I'm suffering from post-fantasy-football-depression (PFFD).

However, I made the Finals in the B league, and also in 4 of my other 10 leagues. Ironically, my best ESPN team lost in the Semi-Finals, 122-133, thanks again to AP's goose egg and also to Dan Carpenter, who missed four field goals. Now all I have to do is win at least 3 of the 5 possible championships, and I'll at least be able to say I won 3 of my 12 leagues (25%).

Bah.

If Malcolm Floyd and AP just would have told me ahead of time that they planned on being inactive, I would have subbed in Johnny Knox and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. And if I would have replaced Gates with Brent Celek instead of Anthony Fasano (which I almost did), I would have won by 2 points.

Not making excuses. Just saying ... I got robbed. I will forever hate Ray Rice.

Stay tuned for my crappy week 15 picks recap (I went 7-9, but it was a totally insane week, so I'll take it) and my week 16 picks (Lions will win 3 straight!?) as well as the nearly-half-finished NBA top 50. And before I say goodbye, here are 6 random thoughts:

1) Regarding the UConn women's basketball team and their 88 consecutive wins - I just want to ask one question: If they played against the UConn men's basketball team, would the men win by more or less than 88 points? I think less, but only slightly.

2) Regarding Michael Vick saying that he would like to own a dog, I also heard that Osama Bin Laden would like to be a commercial airline pilot for Delta.

3) Regarding the NHL ... just stop it. No one is watching. No one cares.

4) Regarding Cliff Lee to the Phillies and Zach Grienke to the Brewers ... that means 2 of the 3 best pitchers from the AL just went to the NL. This not only helps the Tigers, but it gives Verlander a legit shot at the Cy Young, and also crushes the Yankees. They were banking on Lee. Wonderful news all around.

5) Regarding the Miami Heat's 12 game winning streak ... I told you so.

6) Regarding the 2011 NFL Draft ... I'm really excited for Detroit to take Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi with the 7th overall pick. He's going to replace Backus immediately, and he's going to be really good.

That's it. Peace out.

Week 14 Wrap Up & Week 15 PICKS

Solid week. Went 10-6 against the spread. Which brings me to 112-92-4. I lost track of the Locks and Upsets, but that's for the best because they haven't been pretty. I'm 8-5 on Lions games.

Made the playoffs in both the A League and B League. I play my bro in one league and Otto in the other. Pretty optimistic I'll make the finals in at least one league. Made the playoffs in 5 of my 10 other leagues. One of those teams went 13-1. That roster is virtually unbeatable: Brady, AP, Hillis, Foster, Roddy, Bowe, Branch, Tamme, Steelers D ... with Blount, Forte, Matt Ryan, Austin, and Floyd on the bench. I scored 1,365 points in that league, and finished the regular season on a 10 game winning streak. I'm such a huge dork.

Anyway, here are the Week 14 Wrap Ups, followed by the Week 15 Picks.

Indy 30, Titans 28
Colts missed the cover by 1 point thanks to a Bo Scaife garbage touchdown as time expired. Screw you Jeff Fisher.

Falcons 31, Panthers 10
Atlanta takes one step closer to homefield throughout, and the way that Michael Turner is running nobody's going to beat them.

Bills 13, Browns 6
Cleveland continues to play to the level of their competition. With this win, Buffalo loses their chance at Andrew Luck.

Jags 38, Raiders 31
Those feisty Jaguars. They gave up 30 fantasy points to McFadden and were down 10 in the fourth quarter, but they just keep getting wins.

Steelers 23, Bengals 7
Troy Polamalu proves yet again why he's the best defensive player in the NFL. He might actually be making DMVP a close battle. But Clay Matthews still has the edge.

Bucs 17, Redskins 16
The BBR (Black Ben Roethlisberger) has yet another fourth quarter comeback win. That makes 6 for Josh Freeman in his 2 year career. Amazing. Tampa remains in the playoff hunt.

Saints 31, Rams 13
This game could have been closer, but a Steven Jackson fumble in the first quarter led to a 14-0 hole which the Rams couldn't climb out of. The Saints have quietly won 6 straight.

49ers 40, Seahawks 21
Another NFC West instant classic. These teams are both so bad that they don't deserve my thoughts.

Cardinals 41, Broncos 13
The problem with firing Josh McDaniels was that you lost not only a head coach, but a playcaller too. Kyle Orton's QB rating of 27 tells the whole story. Oh, also, the Cardinals kicker had 5 field goals and a rushing TD.

Patriots 36, Bears 7
Laughable on all accounts. In the Patriots last three snow games, they led by a combined 103-0 at halftime. If there was any doubt about league MVP, there isn't anymore. Brady's got 29 TDs and 4 INTs. Chicago is very lucky that the Packers lost. We'll get to that later.

Dolphins 10, Jets 6
Chad Henne had 5 completions in a winning effort. The Jets are not a good team. Thanks for the memories Rex Ryan. Oh by the way, I'm 99% sure that Rex Ryan is somehow responsible for the assistant coach tripping the Dolphins player, and letting him take the fall for it.

Chargers 31, Chiefs 0
Glad I changed this pick at the last minute! Apparently Brodie Croyle (now 0-9 as a starting QB) isn't going to be getting many big offers this offseason. KC had 67 yards of offense somehow, despite zero turnovers. Also zero third-down conversions.

Eagles 30, Cowboys 27
Both of these teams are really good. This was a great game. Too bad Dallas started the season 1-7 or we could have a playoff rematch. Also, Michael Vick is going to get massively overpaid this spring. I'm thinking Philly gives him 5 years, $95 million, and he barely finishes the second year of his deal before he either falls apart physically or mentally.

Giants 21, Vikings 3
Well, the Favre streak finally ended. Now let's just hope his wretched career will end. The Giants needed this win to keep their playoff hopes alive (since New Orleans has basically clinched a wildcard) and they got it, thanks to an anemic Vikings offense. Seriously Peterson? 1.9 ypc?

Ravens 34, Texans 28
The only team in the NFL to never make a postseason appearance continues its streak with this crushing overtime loss. What's the opposite of clutch? Unclutch? Anticlutch? Well that's Matt Schaub. And don't look now but Haloti Ngata might be in the conversation with Matthews and Polamalu for DMVP.

And that brings us to ...

Lions 7, Packers 3
If you would have told me on Saturday that Detroit would score only 7 points, I would have given them a 0.00000001% chance of winning. But despite just one catch from Calvin Johnson and a 39.4 QB rating from Drew "I Better Update My Resume" Stanton, the Lions pulled out this incredible, stunning victory for one reason, and one reason only: defense.

Okay, maybe a couple reasons. Rodgers's injury definitely helped. Stefan Logan did a great job on kick returns. The Packers helped us out with 3 turnovers, particularly the drop by Jennings which was a surefire TD if he held on. But really, it was all defense.

Green Bay went just 2 for 12 on third downs; their running backs combined for 37 yards on 15 carries; Detroit had 4 sacks (without KVB) and 6 tackles for loss; the Packers were forced to punt 8 times; and best of all, Ndamukong Suh was an unblockable machine despite being double and triple teamed on several occasions.

What a fantastic victory. Detroit hadn't won a divisional game in their last 19 tries. This was huge. Great game for confidence - for the coaches, for the young players, and for the fans. And how awesome is it to potentially deliver the knockout blow to a hated rival. Heck, I don't even hate the Packers as much as the Bears or Vikings, but to win a game which has potential playoff implications is phenomenal!

Go Lions!!!!

Now, for the Week 15 picks ...

49ers (5-8) @ Chargers (7-6)
Predicted Line: SD by 7.5
Actual Line: SD by 9

These teams are both probably the best teams in crappy divisions, and they both desperately need to win. But that's about all they have in common. San Diego is good - possibly Super Bowl good. San Francisco absolutely sucks. They just keep beating doormats. Their five wins are against Denver, Oakland, and the three teams in their division. And without Frank Gore they just don't have an offense. Sorry Alex Smith, you can put up 40 points against Seattle but you aren't fooling anybody. You stink.

This has blowout written all over it. Chargers in a must-win December game against a crappy team? Come on. I'll take those 9 points gladly.

Cleveland (5-8) @ Cincinnati (2-11)
Predicted Line: CLE by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 1.5

It took fourteen weeks, but Terrell Owens finally did his thing. Quote:

"You start with the owner, you start with the coaches. As players, we are a product of what the coaches are coaching us throughout the course of the week. Of course, we've got to go out there and play the game. But in order for us to do what we're allowed to do to the best of our abilities, the coaches have to put the players in the best position."

Everything he said is completely true. Marvin Lewis has been deplorable and should have been fired by now. But come on. Couldn't he just keep his mouth shut like the other 52 guys on the team?

I'm officially giving up on the Bengals. They won't be able to stop Peyton Hillis, and Colt McCoy will be back. The Browns are still playing for pride. I'll take them to win pretty convincingly.

Redskins (5-8) @ Cowboys (5-8)
Predicted Line: DAL by 8
Actual Line: DAL by 6

Mike Shanahan is being really weird about his quarterback situation. Really weird, and incredibly stupid. He's contemplating benching Donovan McNabb, not for some young hotshot with a chance to prove himself, but for Turnover Machine Rex Grossman, a proven loser. This just weeks after extending McNabb's contract for 5 years and $78 million. It's been the weirdest not-talked-about story of the season. Paying a guy Pro Bowl money in the midst of his worst season in a decade, and then threatening to bench him. My only explanation is that the Redskins plan to cut ties altogether with McNabb by the end of 2010, and the contract ploy was a means of saving money. If McNabb is removed from the roster by the end of the season, it will save the Skins $10 million on his contract. Very strange and possibly scandalous.

As for the pick, it depends slightly on the QB status. If McNabb plays, Dallas will win by 7 or 10. If Grossman plays, Dallas will win by at least 20. Either way, I like Dallas.

This just in - Grossman will start. I'm not only taking the Cowboys, but I'm gleefully making it the Lock of the Week.

Texans (5-8) @ Titans (5-8)
Predicted Line: TEN by 1
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5

Both teams are coming off emotional losses that eliminated them from playoff contention. What is there to play for?

Well, for one thing, both coaches are playing to keep their jobs. For another, Arian Foster is playing to win the Rushing title.

Matt Schaub is trying to keep a starting job in the NFL. Kerry Collins is trying to keep a job, period. Chris Johnson is playing for revenge, because in his last game against Houston he rushed for like 7 total yards. Randy Moss is playing solely for the paycheck.

So ... in the meaningless battle for individual accolades and retaining employment, I guess I'll side with the team that doesn't have Randy Moss. Titans are 0-5 since picking him up.

Jags (8-5) @ Colts (7-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 5

Colts win, but Jags keep it close. I hate this line. I'll say Colts win by 4. So I'll take Jacksonville ATS.

Chiefs (8-5) @ Rams (6-7)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: KC by 1 (Cassel expected to play)

If Cassel plays I'm guessing the line is somewhere close to KC by 2. If Croyle starts, I'm guessing STL by 3. I'm just going to guess the game straight up, and my hunch is Cassel plays. KC can't feel good about their playoff chances with Brodie Croyle and his 0-9 career record as a starter.

If Cassel does play, I'll take the Chiefs. They should be able to run on the Rams and control the clock. Jamaal Charles won't have much trouble against the Rams defense.

But if Croyle plays, the Rams will put 11 men in the box and destroy the Chiefs offense just like the Chargers did. Actually, I'm changing the pick to Rams either way. If Cassel does play he probably won't be near 100%. Bah I don't know! I'll just stick with the Rams.

Bills (3-10) @ Dolphins (7-6)
Predicted Line: MIA by 6.5
Actual Line: MIA by 5.5

If the Jets continue to collapse and lose their remaining three games (very possible), Miami figures to be in a battle with Jacksonville for the remaining Wildcard spot that doesn't go to Baltimore. Assuming Indy wins on Sunday and the Dolphins win this game, both teams will be 8-6, and the Jets will be 9-5 after they lose to Pittsburgh. So all that to say, Miami has a half-decent chance to get blown out by San Diego in the first round.

For this game, I want to take the points because Buffalo is frisky and Miami's head coach is 0-7 lifetime at covering a spread of 4 points or more. I also want to take Buffalo because of how terrible Chad Henne has played lately. But, I'm going against my instincts and taking Miami in what I think will be a low-scoring, 13-20 game.

Lions (3-10) @ Bucs (8-5)
Predicted Line: TB by 8
Actual Line: TB by 6

This line was tough to guess. On one hand the Lions just beat the Packers and held them to 3 points; on the other hand, Drew Stanton. Six points might be a little low on the road.

One of the great tragedies of this season will be Tampa Bay missing the playoffs at 9-7 while St. Louis makes the playoffs at 7-9. I want to say the rules should be changed, but what are we going to do, keep a division winner from making the playoffs? Can't do that. We just have to live with a crappy system.

For this game, I'm actually taking the Lions to cover the spread, and I think they might win outright for their first road victory in 78 years. People don't realize how injury-plagued Tampa is. Their best defensive player, Aqib Talib, is on IR as of 3 weeks ago. They also lost stud safety Tanard Jackson to a drug-related suspension and rookie safety Cody Grimm to a season-ending knee injury. They put linebacker Quincy Black (one of their leading tacklers) on IR earlier this week, and #3 overall pick Gerald McCoy is likely to miss this game with a bicep injury. In short, Tampa's defense is in shambles, and even a hooligan like Drew Stanton might rush for 40 yards and throw 20 completions. This is a good week to own Calvin Johnson in fantasy football, and a bad week to be playing against him in the playoffs. Unfortunately, I am the latter.

Tampa's defense ranks 11th against the pass, and 27th against the run. But given the injuries, especially to a shutdown corner in Talib, you have to view them as perhaps the worst overall defense in the NFL. Their secondary is just as inept as the Lions, and they don't have a pass rusher with more than 5 sacks all year. (The Lions have 3). In fact, Tampa has the fewest overall sacks in the NFC, and ranks third-worst in the NFL in terms of YPC defense. They give up an average of 4.7 yards per rush. It's time for Jahvid Best to earn his paycheck.

On the other side of the ball, it's just as ugly. Detroit's defense looked fabulous against Matt Flynn, but Josh Freeman is efficient and knows how to move the chains. Tampa's third-down conversion rate is 42.1%, 7th best in the NFL and only trailing teams with QBs named Manning, Rivers, Brees, Brady, Ryan and Schaub. To slow down the Tampa offense, it's got to start up front in containment against LeGarrette Blount.

The Tampa offensive line isn't good, and will have to double-team Suh to keep him out of the backfield. As usual, that will allow Avril and McBride and Williams to be a little more aggressive, and should allow for some effective blitz packages. The Lions have the 22nd ranked rush defense, but I feel like it's better now than it was early in the season, especially with DeAndre Levy back at MLB. I actually think Blount will struggle to gain consistent yards on 1st and 2nd down. Of course, I wouldn't bench him in fantasy football, because he'll likely score on a 60 yard play.

The absolute key to this game will be Tampa's vertical offense. How can the Detroit secondary respond to third-and-longs, and how can the Detroit pass rush fare without KVB? I expect Josh Freeman to attempt upwards of 40 passes (he averages about 29 per game), with plenty of downfield strikes to Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn. It's up to the Detroit secondary to avoid big plays. If they can survive this game without giving up a 50+ yard score, they'll win.

Despite the gloomy 3-10 record, I really, REALLY want Detroit to win this game. Tampa isn't as talented as their 8-5 record suggests, but they embody what Detroit wants to be: an under-talented team which plays smart and focused and wins close games. Beating Tampa, and essentially knocking them out of the playoff race, would be a big step for our franchise. It would mean back-to-back wins against teams hoping to make the playoffs, and twice as many wins as last year. Our remaining games are Miami and Minnesota, so 6-10 is still within reach.

Forget the draft. With the win last week Detroit lost its chances for Patrick Peterson, unless Cincy and Denver magically win a couple games. PP is not sliding past the #2 pick. After Peterson the draft is a total crapshoot, and I'd prefer to win as many games as possible this year so we get the latest possible pick, so we're not on the hook for another godawful contract. The one good aspect of preposterous rookie contracts is that it motivates bad teams to win late in the season.

I think the spread for this game makes sense, but I also think Detroit has at least a 40% chance of winning. Josh Freeman is a comeback fiend, but doesn't have any prior experience blowing teams out. I'm expecting a high-scoring game (maybe 35-38) and ultimately another Freeman comeback. But I will take Detroit and the points.

Random crazy prediction: Drew Stanton has 22 fantasy points. 23-43, 225 yards, 2 TDs, 35 rushing yards, 1 INT.

Cardinals (4-9) @ Panthers (1-12)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 1
Actual Line: CAR by 2

Pretty sure these are the two worst teams in the NFL. Yippee. Brace yourselves for stunning analysis.

In terms of defense, these teams rank 29th and 26th in points allowed; offensively, they rank 32nd and 27th in points scored. Carolina might have the worst offense ever assembled, but they've figured out how to run the ball lately and the Cards give up 143 rushing yards per game. John Skelton had a 52.3 QB rating and 40.5% completion percentage last week for Arizona in his first start, but played effectively as a game manager while Tim Hightower ran like crazy. He's probably better than Anderson or Max Hall. But will he seriously begin his career 2-0? And if Carolina loses this game, they are guaranteed to finish 1-15 with remaining road games against the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the NFL. So what's more likely - Skelton starting 2-0 or Carolina finishing 1-15? (I picked them to go 5-11 back in June).

I really don't know. Carolina is awful. Skelton stinks, but he's probably better than Claussen. I think both teams will run the ball well, but probably just kick a few field goals. It should be something like 10-6 at halftime and thus the final score will be close. And since Arizona is getting two points, I guess I'll take them.

Saints (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)
Predicted Line: BAL by 1.5
Actual Line: BAL by 1.5

I was about to proclaim this a Super Bowl Preview when I realized I was just getting overly excited because - This is the first game yet where both teams are actually good! Geez oh pete.

I'm playing against Drew Brees AND Ray Rice in the fantasy playoffs in this game, and I'm pretty happy with how the matchups align. Either guy could explode, but I kind of see this as a low-key, feel-each-other-out, field-position kind of 20-17 game. The line essentially means nothing so it's a straight up pick, and it's tough not to pick against the Saints. Brees is on fire.

But wouldn't it be appropriate for the Madden Curse to strike now, late in the season, with playoff hopes on the line, when nobody expects it? It makes me a little queasy to pick New Orleans. Baltimore's a very good team at home (17-5 the last three years). I'm waffling. I can't decide. My gut says New Orleans.

Eagles (9-4) @ Giants (9-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 1
Actual Line: NYG by 3

Shocking line. People LOVE to bet on Michael Vick. Before I even check the Vegas page I'll guess that 85% of the betting action is on the Eagles. And ... nope, it's only 68%. But still. This line should be Giants by 1. I thought it would skew in the other direction. No disrespect to the Giants, I just thought Vick-mania was a little more prominent.

However, Vick hasn't faced this good of a denfese since ... well, since the last time he played the Giants. Philly won that game 27-17 in Philly, but the Giants had 5 turnovers in that game, which won't happen again. Justin Tuck sacked Vick three times. Vick simply can't run around like crazy against this athletic front 4.

But no matter how good the defense is, you can't keep Philly from scoring; you need at least three touchdowns to beat them. Fortunately, (I say fortunately because I root against the Eagles almost as strenuously as I root against the Steelers and Jets - I detest Michael Vick) the Eagles have enough injuries on defense that New York should be able to pass the ball easily. Asante Samuel is back, but he's incredibly overrated. Linebacker Stewart Bradley and DE Brandon Graham are out, as is CB Ellis Hobbs. A big matchup is DE Trent Cole against LT David Diehl. Those are two borderline Pro Bowlers who get almost no recognition. I expect Chris Snee to lead the Giants rushing attack to a pretty great game and try to keep Vick on the sideline. 75 yards apiece for Jacobs and Bradshaw. If they can move the chains and avoid fumbles, New York has a chance.

However, come on. The better team is getting 3 points here. I've got to pick Philadelphia. Did I mention that both teams are 9-4 and the winning team is assured a playoff birth, while the loser likely gets a wildcard, but maybe gets nothing. You think they'll be fired up?

Here's how the NFC Playoffs shake out:

Atlanta (11-2) and New Orleans (10-3) are IN. They play each other next week at the Georgia Dome. The winner of that game is likely the #1 seed, and the loser is the top Wildcard team.

Somebody from the NFC West will win the division at either 7-9 or 8-8, and then get demolished. It could be Seattle, San Fran or St. Louis. It doesn't matter, but it'll probably be St. Louis.

That leaves three spots for five contenders: Philly, Chicago, New York, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay. The first three are 9-4 and the Packers and Bucs are 8-5. Aaron Rodgers injury is huge. Spend a little time on this site and you'll see how intricate those 3 spots become. New York plays Philly this week; the Giants play the Packers next week; and then Tampa plays New Orleans while Chicago plays Green Bay week 17.

So, if Atlanta loses this week to Seattle (not likely) and then loses to New Orleans next week (50-50) while the Saints beat Baltimore this week, and meanwhile Tampa takes care of Detroit and Seattle in two home games, that sets up 12-3 Saints against 10-5 Tampa, while the 11-4 Falcons would have no shot at the #1 seed, thus New Orleans could rest its starters, which might allow Tampa to win its final game, which would make them 11-5 and probably mean both wildcard positions come from the NFC South.

But if Atlanta beats Seattle this week (which they should, however Seattle needs the win to keep their playoff hopes alive), they'll have a game lead over New Orleans heading into next week's showdown, and that's assuming the Saints beat the Ravens, which they might not. Either way, and regarless of the outcome of ATL-NO week 16, the Saints will have a reason to play week 17, which means Tampa will have to fight for its life at the Superdome.

All that to say, Tampa not only needs to beat Detroit and Seattle in home games (which they should, but remember all their injuries and lack of talent in the first place), but they also need to hope New Orleans wins their next two while Atlanta loses their next two, because then a rest-the-starters situation helps Tampa claim a wildcard spot at 11-5, UNLESS Green Bay wins out without Rodgers (highly unlikey, as they play New England, Chicago, and the Giants) or UNLESS the loser of the PHI-NYG game wins their next two games AND the winner of PHI-NYG wins at least one of its two next games, which is unlikely because the Giants play the Packers and Redskins and the Eagles play Dallas and Minnesota. Plus, with @Minnesota, @Green Bay, and vs. NY Jets remaining on the schedule, there's no guarantee that Chicago wins any of its remaining games, so they might wind up 9-7 or 10-6, which would also help Tampa's chances if Green Bay surprisingly wins out and goes 11-5, because Tampa would then take the Wildcard instead of Chicago, unless the PHI-NYG loser wins out, which as I said, is unlikely.

Make sense?

The small version: don't count Tampa out.

The bigger version: Detroit has extra motivation to beat Tampa this week, at least in my mind.

Having said all that, here are my predictions:

Week 15 - Eagles over Giants, Vikings over Bears, Saints over Ravens, Tampa over Detroit, Atlanta over Seattle, Patriots over Packers.

Week 16 - Jets over Bears, Saints over Falcons, Eagles over Vikings, Tampa over Seattle, Packers over Giants.

Week 17 - Saints over Bucs, Packers over Bears, Giants over Redskins, Atlanta over Carolina, Philly over Dallas.

If that all happens according to plan, the NFC Playoffs look like this:

Byes: Falcons & Eagles
First Round:
#6 Giants @ #3 Packers
#5 Saints @ #4 Winner of NFC West

So we'd have a 13-3 team on the road in the first round of the playoffs. That's brilliant.

You may have noticed that Chicago is omitted from my playoff projection. That's because I think they'll lose out. Loses to the Steelers and Jets sets up a week 17 game at Lambeau - winner gets the #3 seed. Unless Green Bay loses to the Giants week 16, in which case Green Bay is out almost for sure, unless they somehow beat New England this week. If they do that, they're basically in.

Here's another crazy scenario - even if New Orleans beats Baltimore on the road this week, they could still potentially MISS the playoffs at 11-5, while two teams with inferior records sneak in. That would happen if they lost back-to-back divisional games to Atlanta and Tampa, unless they got some help from the Redskins beating the Giants week 17, or Dallas beating Philly, both of which are unlikely, since those teams won't be trying. It's obviously unlikely for New Orleans to lose weeks 16 and 17, but remember, Madden Curse is still waiting to strike like a poisonous viper.

Here's one more scenario for you - if the Giants beat Philly, then Philly would NEED to win its next two games (Vikings & Cowboys) to avoid missing the playoffs, and even if they won out they still would miss the playoffs if Tampa also wins out, which could happen, especially because of the Saints-rest-the-starters possiblity.

Okay, that's enough of that. Moving on ...

Falcons (11-2) @ Seahawks (6-7)
Predicted Line: ATL by 7
Actual Line: ATL by 6

In their last five games against teams not quarterbacked by Jimmy Claussen, Max Hall or Derek "Okay, That's Fine" Anderson, the Seahawks have lost by scores of 30, 34, 15, 18, and 19.

I think this line's too low. I'll take Atlanta.

Jets (9-4) @ Steelers (10-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 5.5
Actual Line: PIT by 6

Bad timing for the Jets, who need to get their offense back on track. Not going to happen against a historically-good defense with 4 linebackers who should all be in the Pro Bowl and a strong safety who is making an argument as the best overall player in the NFL.

That said, this line is a little high. Pittsburgh's offense shouldn't be trusted to score against any defense that doesn't completely suck. The Jets have the #2 ranked rush defense and they'll have Revis covering Mike Wallace. Looks like a typical Steelers 17-13 win to me. I'll take the points and the Jets. Uggh .

*EDIT* Polamalu will miss this game. I feel better about my Jets pick. I'll actually make it the Upset of the Week.

Broncos (3-10) @ Raiders (6-7)
Predicted Line: OAK by 7
Actual Line: OAK by 7

Believe it or not, Oakland is not out of playoff contention. Even with San Diego winning on Thursday night.

All Oakland needs is:
-To win their remaining games.
-At least one loss from each San Diego and KC in the next two weeks. If KC beats the Rams but then loses to the Titans, or vice versa, they would finish 9-7 if Oakland beats them week 17. And if San Diego loses to either Cincinnati or Denver, they'll finish 9-7 too. If Oakland wins its remaining games, there will be a three-way tie at 9-7, and Oakland would win the tie-breaker for head-to-head record.

So basically, Oakland not only needs to beat Denver, but needs to travel to Indianapolis next week and beat Peyton Manning in his own building. If they do that, assuming they get a little bit of help, they'll control their own destiny in a week 17 matchup at Arrowhead.

Of course, the most likely scenario is that San Diego wins its remaining two games and finishes 10-6, which means they win the division. UNLESS Kansas City wins its remaining three games and goes 11-5, and in that case San Diego might take a Wildcard instead of the Jets. This would happen if the Jets lose at least two of their next three games (@Pittsburgh, @Chicago, so it might happen), and if the Bolts and Jets tie at 10-6, San Diego wins the tiebreaker for strength of schedule. Yet another wonderful scenario in which Rex Ryan misses the playoffs.

All that to say ... I don't love Oakland's chances, but they aren't elminated yet, and as a result they should play their asses off in this game against a depleted, deflated, demoralized Denver team with an interim coach who is in over his head, a nonexistent offensive coordinator, and a first-round rookie QB who isn't allowed to play, but even if he does play he'll be terrible.

Last time these teams met, Oakland won 59-14 behind 190 yards and 4 TDs for Darren McFadden. That game was in Denver. Now they're in Oakland. I can't believe I'm putting my faith in the Raiders to cover a 7 point spread, but it's more a reflection of my distrust in Denver. They can't stop the run, they can't rush the passer, they can't do anything defensively. And offensively, Kyle Orton seems to be falling apart at the exact moment that the Raiders defense is playing great. Nnamdi Asomugha will eliminate Lloyd from the game, and force injured Kyle Orton to spread the ball around elsewhere.

I'm anticipating another great fantasy day from Knowshon Moreno, who I wish I wouldn't have traded, but ultimately I don't think Denver's offense can keep up. Oakland wins 30-17.

*EDIT* Orton is out; Tebow will start. Still taking Oakland.

Packers (8-5) @ Patriots (11-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: No Line (Rodgers)

Geez, this is one of the toughest games to call of the season. I have no idea whether or not Rodgers will play, and thus no idea what the line will be. It seems as if he'll be a gametime decision, but when concussions are involved there are NFL-mandated rules. So even if Green Bay wants to play Rodgers - which they will, because this game is basically a must-win - he might not be allowed to play. If Matt Flynn starts, forget about it. Patriots by 50.

But I, for one, think Rodgers will play, or at least will attempt to play. I don't think Green Bay can afford to start Flynn in Foxboro knowing their playoff hopes are on the line. And I'm going to pick this game assuming Rodgers plays, which means the line should be NE by 8.5 or something in that area. And believe it or not, I kind of want to pick the Packers.

Not because Tom Brady isn't amazing or because the Patriots aren't playing like Champs. I realize Brady has won like 25 straight games at home and is lifetime 93-61 against the spread, but not all of those wins are blowouts. Green Bay's defense might present problems for the Patriots O-line, and we might see the 2009 Patriots who kicked field goals instead of scoring 7 on every drive. If that's the case, Green Bay might keep this game close in the fourth quarter, and for that reason I'm temporarily picking the Packers.

However, I will be monitoring this game, and if Rodgers is inactive I'll be changing the pick immediately, even if the line jumps up to Patriots by 35.

*EDIT* Rodgers is doubtful; I'm taking the Pats.

Bears (9-4) @ Vikings (5-9) - Monday night
Predicted Line: CHI by 2
Actual Line: No Line (Favre, AP)

These no line games are annoying. Nobody has any idea if Favre will play, or if AP will play (he probably will), so there is no line. But I'll keep the line at Chicago by 2.

This game isn't in the Metrodome, but outdoors at the U of Minnesota, which means the temperature drops from 65 degrees to 5 degrees. That benefits the Vikings, who have a better running game and aren't stupid like Mike Martz.

However, since Favre missed last week and the streak ended, it's presumable that he'll sit this game out as well. Tarvaris Jackson has been placed on IR. Which means either converted WR Joe Webb will start at quarterback, or newly-signed Patrick Ramsey, who I just assumed was 38 years old, but he's really only 31. Joe Webb is reportedly suffering from a hamstring issue, and since his primary strength as a QB is escapability, I assume that Ramsey will start.

And you know, that might not be a horrible thing. He hasn't actually played a significant game in 4 years, but he couldn't be much worse than Favre, and at least he has something to prove. If nothing else, Ramsey's presence will encourage the coaching staff to run the ball with AP 30+ times, which is a recipe for winning.

However, the Bears are third-best in the NFL at stopping the run, despite giving up 230 rushing yards in the last two weeks. AP might not break many big plays, especially in the snow, and if Ramsey has to convert third-downs, Chicago will eat him alive. Julius Peppers might bring his karate chop and shatter Ramsey's arm, forcing the Vikings to play Webb, which turns them into a video-game offense and takes AP out of a normal rhythm.

Assuming Ramsey does play, or even if Favre plays, I'll probably take the Bears +2. All year they've been able to beat crummy teams, and they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulders after being blown out by New England. Plus, they know they have to win this game, because if they lose it sets up must-win games against the Jets and Packers, and they don't want to be in that situation.

So even though I wrote earlir that the Vikings would beat the Bears, I'm picking the Bears here, because it looks more and more likely that Favre's career is over, and Patrick Ramsey doesn't inspire much confidence, even against Jay Cutler.

That's all I got.
Go Lions.

And stay tuned for the top 50 players in the NBA - 2010 edition.
It's a work in progress.