Week 1 is all about excitement. Tom Brady, Cam Newton, the Colts suck!! Yay football!!
Week 2 is lots of confusion. Are the Chiefs and Colts really that bad?? Is Baltimore secretly terrible, or is Tennessee actually good ... Wait, Cam Newton threw for how many yards?
But Week 3 is the worst. It can be summed up in one word: overreaction.
Now our confusion has turned into crystal-clear perception. In fact, yes the Chiefs and Colts will both go 0-16 and their owners will arm wrestle for Andrew Luck. No, the Ravens aren't bad, they just had an off-week. Actually it's the Rams that suck. They'll go 0-16 too! And Mike Vick will never play another game because of his bruised non-throwing hand, and Tony Romo will spend his weekdays fighting terrorists in Syria, punctured lung and all. Oh, and Tom Brady sucks! Can you believe he threw 4 picks!
Some of this perception is accurate. But most of it is lunacy. We don't know anything after 3 weeks. 81% of the season is yet to be played. A lot of key players are hurt, some teams haven't played anybody yet, and others, like Atlanta and Minnesota, haven't had an easy game yet.
Yesterday, I heard an ESPN radio host say that the Bills and Lions are top 5 teams, and the Raiders are top 10. Really? Come on ... seriously??
In fairness, the Lions look great. Focused, balanced, ferocious. They still lack mental discipline and have holes in the secondary that are yet to be exposed, but they do look like a legit playoff team. But top 5? Better than Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans? Not even close. Remember, we were losing 20-0 at halftime last week to Donovan McNabb.
Buffalo, in my opinion, still isn't a top 15 team. They'll use this 3-0 start to propel them to a nice 8-8 or 9-7 season. Fitzpatrick will earn the starting gig for at least one more year. They've got a hard-working, unsexy team and some nice players on D. But the secondary, O-line, and frankly the QB/RB/WR/TE positions are all mediocre at best. Anyone who calls Buffalo a playoff team right now is a victim to week 3 hyperbole.
As for Oakland ... they are still a bottomfeeder. McFadden looks great, but they haven't faced a real defense yet. They would be 1-2 if Nick Mangold had played on Sunday. Maybe they'll ride the easy schedule to 7 or 8 wins, but they aren't a real contender.
On the topic of idiotic radio statements, I heard someone (Chris Carter I think) say that the Rams have no chance at making the playoffs. None. They are 0-3, and their season is over. Really? Have you looked at their schedule? They could win 7 in a row from week 9 to 15. And have you looked at their division? It might only take 5 wins to capture the NFC West this year.
But then again, Chris Carter doesn't think Calvin Johnson is a top 5 receiver, because he "doesn't command double-teams." You would think a Hall of Fame receiver like C.C. would be able to recognize what a double-team looks like. In four years, I don't think I've ever not seen Calvin draw two guys.
As a segueway into the Lions-Cowboys pick, let's conclude this overreaction conversation by talking about the most over-talked-about player of the first three weeks. Tony Romo.
After week one, he was discussed for hundreds of thousands of hours for his two fatal turnovers in the fourth quarter. He was a choke artist, he was LeBron, he was the only QB in NFL history to make mistakes and lose a game.
Week two, he played through an injury and beat a really bad team in overtime. Then he beat another really bad team, this time with 6 field goals and no TDs. Now, he's turning down offers left and right to join Obama's Cabinet or lead the Military Intelligence Committee. In his spare time, Romo rescues kittens from trees in the middle of forest fires.
If you're counting at home, Romo is 0-1 against good teams and 2-0 against bad teams. He is a fringe top 10 QB in the league, and probably the fifth best player on his own team. Good player, nice guy, but through three weeks, Romo has been talked about nationally more than the 31 other quarterbacks in the NFL combined, and I'm about to rip the radio out of my car with my teeth.
This week, the phrase is "coach on the field." He overcame the absence of Miles Austin to lead the brainless Cowboys to a much-needed win over the mighty undefeated Redskins. Uh ... well, he did have Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, Felix Jones ... three pretty good players on his offense. And the MVP for Dallas in that MNF game was DeMarcus Ware by a mile. He won the game for them, almost single-handedly. This sounds harsher than I mean it, but Dallas won in spite of Romo.
The thing is, if you get within the 25 yard line on 6 occasions and don't score a single TD, the fault resides with the QB. I don't care how bad the blocking was or how much the backup receivers didn't know the playbook. That's 6 chances to throw a TD to Witten or Bryant against a vastly inferior defense. Not getting it done is unacceptable.
The bad news for Detroit is that Dallas won't have that same kind of bad luck again. If they move the ball effectively again, we can't count on them stalling in the red zone 6 times. Fortunately, Detroit's defense is about 65 times better than Washington's.
Let's look at the line real quick and then jump into the rest of the picks.
Lions (3-0) @ Cowboys (2-1)
Predicted Line: DAL by 1.5
Actual Line: DAL by 2
It's the super-hyped team against the super-hyped quarterback in a very losable matchup for both teams. As a Lions fan, I'm terrified of DeMarcus Ware and Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. I'm actually scared of Romo too. Dallas could very possibly kick the crap out of us in their home stadium.
But if I were a Cowboys fan ... how would I feel about the 3-0 Lions coming in to town with the league's best point differential and megatons of confidence? How would I feel knowing that they overcame a 20 point deficit on the road and held Adrian Peterson to under 80 yards? How the heck would I feel about seeing Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh, knowing we had no chance to contain either guy?
Both teams have a lot to fear.
For me, the biggest cause for concern is Ware. He makes the Best DE Alive Debate extremely hard. He might be playing at a higher level than Peppers right now, and the fact that Jeff Backus had one of the worst games of his career last week sure doesn't ease my anxiety. Ware isn't blockable, he isn't even containable. He'll move from left end to right end, like he did against Washington, and he'll beat you with speed or power. He isn't the run-stuffer that Peppers is, but he's a scarier pass-rusher in my opinion. And without a pass-blocking running back, I have no idea how we can give Backus any help. We could put Pettigrew on the left end, but that removes our short-yardage passing game, plus Pettigrew isn't the supreme blocker we all expected when he was drafted in the first round.
As I run through the possible options in my head, there's only two solutions for countering against a player like Ware:
1) Run the ball effectively.
2) Make quick passes.
Running the ball has been a disaster so far this season, so that leaves us with option 2. Stafford's job will be to make 1-second decisions and get rid of the ball before Ware kills him. . Sacks and turnovers are bad enough, but we could be looking at long-term injury again. If Jeff Backus got beat like a drum by Jared Allen, how is he going to compete against a guy who is bigger and faster? I expect to see tons of screens and quick slants, and consequently I wouldn't expect more than 5 or 6 catches from Megatron.
It's a shame, because Calvin has an awesome mismatch against Mike Jenkins, one of the league's worst starting #1 corners. Detroit probably won't have time for the deep pass, but maybe they'll figure out some creative ways to get Calvin the ball. Possibly on 2nd and short or 3rd and short, trying to catch Dallas in a run-stopping defense. The Cowboys have a crap secondary and crap linebackers, so if Stafford can get protection (HUGE if) it will be another great game for him and for Calvin.
I'm expecting an erratic performance, his worst so far of the season, but nothing detrimental. Something like 27-43 for 270 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. I'm not expecting anything on the ground, though they'll give Best plenty of carries in order to relieve Backus. Jahvid will have something like 17 carries for 65 yards.
On the other side of the ball, we're catching a huge break by not seeing Miles Austin this week. He's faster and stronger than people realize, and one of the best route-runners. He's a nightmarish matchup for our corners. Dez Bryant is too, but at least we can double-team him on passing downs. *EDIT* Dez might not play with the lingering hamstring injury.
The guy who we have no answer for is Jason Witten, because no defense really has an answer for him. He's like a faster Pettigrew with better hands. Dallas's other receivers are unproven and have sucked so far, but our secondary is due for an ugly game, so don't be shocked if Kevin Ogeltree has a 50 yard TD.
It looks like Felix Jones might be out with the shoulder thing, which would be nice. But his replacements aren't a huge downgrade. Our front 7 is doing a great job against the run. I absolutely love Stephen Tulloch. I'm not scared of Dallas beating us on the ground.
And then there's the most glaring mismatch in this game: our front 4 against their O-line. It's a mismatch at each position, and there's a good chance we'll finally have Nick Fairley in the lineup. Suh will get his usual double-teams, but I still think he'll have his best game of 2011. I think we'll rack up 4 or 5 sacks, force a couple turnovers, and hopefully keep Romo from settling into any kind of rhythm. As big of a mismatch as Dallas has with Ware, we have just as big of one with Suh. The Cowboys offensive line is really, really bad.
What scares me most about this game is that it's a second straight road game, and that Detroit is playing with the bullseye of a 3-0 team. They used up every ounce of guts they had last week in the comeback, and will have a really hard time if they fall behind. They've got to score early and keep this close; I don't foresee any dramatic comeback this week.
But Dallas is coming off a short week, they have more injury issues than we do, and they've struggled to beat crappy teams in consecutive weeks. Bottom line: Detroit has more talent, but I don't know how much more talent.
I'm completely torn on the outcome. I think Dallas probably pulls away in the second or third quarter and our comeback falls short. Final score, Cowboys 20-16.
*If Dez is confirmed out, I'll probably change this pick on Sunday.
Saints (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2)
Predicted Line: NO by 8.5
Actual Line: NO by 7
It's always risky to bet on big road favorites. I'm especially worried because the Saints rarely win by big margins. But then again ... Blaine Gabbert? I'll take the Saints 30-20.
49ers (2-1) @ Eagles (1-2)
Predicted Line: PHI by 11 if Vick plays, 7 if not
Actual Line: PHI by 9
I spent about an hour writing up some pretty great picks, and then this stupid website said "Oops, something went wrong,' when I posted it. And, I lost all my work. Great job blogspot.com. You suck.
Now I am way too mad to write all that awesome stuff again ... So here are the shortened-version picks.
I like the Eagles here, because although Vick may not be 100%, Alex Smith is barely 30% even when healthy. The 49ers offensive line can't stop anybody, and the Eagles have 3 Pro Bowlers on the D-line, plus 3 Pro Bowl corners. They don't need any offense to cover. Eagles 23-10.
Redskins (2-1) @ Rams (0-3)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: WAS by 2
This is probably the only time all season that the home team is an underdog despite being considerably better than the road favorite. Don't overthink it, just accept the gift. Rams 27-13. Upset of the week. If the Rams let me down again, I'm done with them.
Titans (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: Pick Em
These are two of the most perplexing teams in the NFL right now. I'm thinking this game ought to swing in Cleveland's favor because of the Kenny Britt injury. I'll take Cleveland 20-18.
Bills (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3.5
Actual Line: BUF by 3
Lots of road favorites this week. I think 7 in all. I can't take all the homedogs, but I like this one. Buffalo tricked a lot of people last week and consequently this line is a few points too high. Cincy is probably the best defense they've seen so far, which doesn't say much for Fitzpatrick and Co. I like Buffalo to win and stay undefeated, but I'm taking the points. Bills 18-16.
Vikings (0-3) @ Chiefs (0-3)
Predicted Line MIN by 3
Actual Line: MIN by 2.5
Both teams have 0-3 records, but the Vikings are playing like a 7-9 team while KC looks like 1-15. Minnesota has blown double-digit leads to 3 good teams; KC isn't trying anymore since losing their two best players in weeks 1 and 2. AP puts this game on his back and doesn't let the Vikings fall to 0-4. Minnesota 23-20.
Panthers (1-2) @ Bears (1-2)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 6.5
Well somebody has to win this game I guess. It's gonna be ugly. Chicago can't block anybody, but Carolina can't rush the passer. Cutler should have decent numbers, while Cam Newton struggles against Julius Peppers and the better-than-advertised Bears secondary. I'm thinking Bears pull ahead in the 2nd or 3rd quarter and win by a touchdown, 27-20.
Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (2-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 2.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4
Two really good teams, neither of which deserves to fall to 2-2. Houston has a couple of major mismatches in this game (Mario Williams against LT Jonathan Scott, Andre Johnson against CB Ike Taylor) but Pittsburgh has more talent overall. IfI had to pick the game straight-up, I'd probably take Pittsburgh by a hair. So with the 4 points, it's an easy call. Steelers 28-27.
Falcons (2-1) @ Seahawks (1-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 5.5
Actual Line: ATL by 4
It makes sense why this line is lower than you might expect. Matt Ryan can't win on the road, Seattle is only competitive when at home. But I'm going against common logic and thinking the disparity in team talent outweighs the location of the game. This game should be the catalyst to Tavaris Jackson's benching, and will help dispel Ryan's 'Can't Win on the Road' reputation. Falcons go crazy, 42-6.
Giants (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 1
Here's my possibly idiotic pick of the week. I'm taking the Cardinals to win outright. Here are the reasons why this is idiotic:
1) You should never take the NFC West against anyone.
2) Arizona just lost to Seattle.
3) Beanie Wells is hurt, Mario Manningham is healthy.
But here's why I like the Cards. First, I think the Giants are a lot worse than people realize, on both sides of the ball. Second, I think Kolb is better than people give him credit for and can take advantage of the Giants depleted defense. Third, it looks like the Giants two pass-rushing studs (Osi and Tuck) will be out, or at least playing hurt. And fourthly, this just looks like the token "Fitzgerald Goes Crazy" game where he single-handedly delivers a win with 12 catches for 180 and 3 scores. If the Giants can't get pressure on Kolb, they can't defend Fitzgerald. If Tuck and Osi both play, I'll change the pick. But for now, I like Arizona as my Stupid Pick of the week. 23-20.
Dolphins (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1)
Predicted Line: SD by 8.5
Actual Line: SD by 7
Miami looks like they have the makings of a 0-16 team, but they have enough talent to keep games close. San Diego, on the other hand, can annually win the division with 9 wins, and they know this. Consequently, they play half-assed every September, and this year has been no exception. Beating KC at home by 3 points is sort of pathetic. If Rivers wants to climb into the MVP conversation, he needs to shred the Fins defense, which is not a hard task. I actually wouldn't be shocked if Miami pulled the stunner, but I'll take San Diego to win outright, but not by 7. They don't have that killer instinct. Bolts 24-20.
Broncos (1-2) @ Packers (3-0)
Predicted Line: Not high enough
Actual Line: GB by 12
Yup, as I predicted. Green Bay is by far the best team in football right now and isn't getting the respect they deserve. Denver, meanwhile, is missing their two best defenders (Bailey and Dumervil) and their starting RB. This line should probably be above 20. I'll take Rodgers and the Pack in a beatdown, 45-10. Five passing TDs before halftime.
Oh, and this is the obvious Survivor pick, as well as the Lock of the week.
Patriots (2-1) @ Raiders (2-1)
Predicted Line: NE by 4
Actual Line: NE by 4
Tom Brady is 22-11 against the spread following a loss. What that tells me is:
A) Brady has only lost 33 times in his 10+ year career. Holy crap.
B) After a loss, he not only wins, but he kills teams.
Oakland is getting too much credit right now for beating the Jets. Without Nick Mangold, that Jets offense didn't have a prayer. I don't think there's much of a chance of Oakland keeping this one close. When the Pats go up early, Jason Campbell is going to have to keep pace. I don't see that happening. Pats 37-17.
Jets (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAL by 3
Mangold should be out again, meaning the Jets won't be able to run the ball. Plus teams can't run on Baltimore anway. I'd bet on Shonn Greene having less than 30 rushing yards. Antonio Cromartie is likely out too, meaning Flacco will have one side of the field to favor. But he doesn't really need to pass; the Jets couldn't stop McFadden and they won't be able to stop Rice. I have all sorts of good feelings about Baltimore covering. Let's say 26-15.
Colts (0-3) @ Bucs (2-1)
Monday night
Predicted Line: TB by 10.5
Actual Line: TB by 10
Josh Freeman is the comeback king, which means he doesn't typically blow teams out. Plus Indy looked impressive last week against Pittsburgh, keeping that game close. But this appears to be the debut start for Curtis Painter, and Talib will shut down Wayne. I doubt Indy puts up more than 10 points. Which makes it an easy cover for Tampa. 20-7.
That's it ... Go Lions!
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Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Week 3 Wrap Up
Picks: 10-6 this week. What I'm more happy about is that 4 of my 6 wrong picks were very close.
I specifically said that I thought the Lions would end up winning by 3, but I picked them to cover the 3.5. Of course they won by 3. In fact, if you reread my Lions prediction, I called the game exactly: "Lions fall behind, come back, then hang on, for a 24-20 win."
I also had dead-on analysis of the CAR-JAC and CLE-MIA games, picking both winners correctly but missing both spreads. Lastly, I anticipated the Steelers' struggles against the Colts Sunday night, but dumbly picked them to cover the 10 point spread anyway. I even called the second half defensive TD.
Of my 10 correct calls, only 2 or 3 of them were luck. I nailed the Baltimore blowout, the Tampa win by 3, the Seattle upset at home, the Packers blowout on the road, the Jets struggling without Nick Mangold, the Saints covering the 4 points, and the Chargers not blowing out the Chiefs like they should have. I forgot to make Upset and Lock and Survivor picks, but if I had, it would have been:
Lock - Pats
Upset - Seattle
Survivor - Green Bay (not San Diego because I already used them; you can only use a team once)
So on the season, I am
Overall: 23-22-3 (35-13 straight up)
Lock: 1-2
Upset: 2-1
Survivor: 3-0
Lions: 1-2 (but 3-0 straight up)
Pretty happy to be back over .500.
My fantasy week was crappy, except for two big wins. I won the B League with a 135 point masterpiece. I won the PPR Cornerstone league thanks to some brilliant games by Steve Johnson and Jimmy Graham. But I lost the A League (the money league) by 1 point, because Dez Bryant couldn't get an extra 7 yards on Monday night. What a disaster. I'm now 1-2 but have scored the third most points overall. I've lost on consecutive Mondays. It sure as heck would have helped if Antonio Gates didn't sit out. AGAIN. Freaking Evan Moore wasn't much of an addition at tight end. The other guys I considered picking up were Dickson and Cooley. I would be 2-1 if I had gone with either of them.
Oh well. I went 5-5 in the inconsequential leagues. In one larger league I was clairvoyant enough to play Torrey Smith, who got me 38 points.
I'm going to delete one of the leagues - it's the dumbest thing I've ever seen. 20 teams in the league, and you start 15 offensive players ... it's just way too big. I was forced to start the following players this weekend: Kerry Collins, Michael Spurlock, Delone Carte, Tandon Doss ... I'm 0-3 and my 1st round pick (Peyton) is out for the year, and now I lost Kenny Britt for the year. Goodbye Morgan Mayhem. I will not miss you.
This week the Lions go for 4-0 in Dallas. It's gonna be tough, as back-to-back road games always are. Right now Tony Romo is garnering more hoopla than any middle-of-the-road quarterback ever has, so I'm hoping we can shut him up. More on all that later.
I'm glad I watched the MNF game last night (even if Dez did let me down), because now I can provide a more accurate prediction for the Lions-Cowboys game. The Lions is gonna be close ... probably DAL by 1.
Picks to come soon.
GO LIONS!! 3-0!!!!!!!
I specifically said that I thought the Lions would end up winning by 3, but I picked them to cover the 3.5. Of course they won by 3. In fact, if you reread my Lions prediction, I called the game exactly: "Lions fall behind, come back, then hang on, for a 24-20 win."
I also had dead-on analysis of the CAR-JAC and CLE-MIA games, picking both winners correctly but missing both spreads. Lastly, I anticipated the Steelers' struggles against the Colts Sunday night, but dumbly picked them to cover the 10 point spread anyway. I even called the second half defensive TD.
Of my 10 correct calls, only 2 or 3 of them were luck. I nailed the Baltimore blowout, the Tampa win by 3, the Seattle upset at home, the Packers blowout on the road, the Jets struggling without Nick Mangold, the Saints covering the 4 points, and the Chargers not blowing out the Chiefs like they should have. I forgot to make Upset and Lock and Survivor picks, but if I had, it would have been:
Lock - Pats
Upset - Seattle
Survivor - Green Bay (not San Diego because I already used them; you can only use a team once)
So on the season, I am
Overall: 23-22-3 (35-13 straight up)
Lock: 1-2
Upset: 2-1
Survivor: 3-0
Lions: 1-2 (but 3-0 straight up)
Pretty happy to be back over .500.
My fantasy week was crappy, except for two big wins. I won the B League with a 135 point masterpiece. I won the PPR Cornerstone league thanks to some brilliant games by Steve Johnson and Jimmy Graham. But I lost the A League (the money league) by 1 point, because Dez Bryant couldn't get an extra 7 yards on Monday night. What a disaster. I'm now 1-2 but have scored the third most points overall. I've lost on consecutive Mondays. It sure as heck would have helped if Antonio Gates didn't sit out. AGAIN. Freaking Evan Moore wasn't much of an addition at tight end. The other guys I considered picking up were Dickson and Cooley. I would be 2-1 if I had gone with either of them.
Oh well. I went 5-5 in the inconsequential leagues. In one larger league I was clairvoyant enough to play Torrey Smith, who got me 38 points.
I'm going to delete one of the leagues - it's the dumbest thing I've ever seen. 20 teams in the league, and you start 15 offensive players ... it's just way too big. I was forced to start the following players this weekend: Kerry Collins, Michael Spurlock, Delone Carte, Tandon Doss ... I'm 0-3 and my 1st round pick (Peyton) is out for the year, and now I lost Kenny Britt for the year. Goodbye Morgan Mayhem. I will not miss you.
This week the Lions go for 4-0 in Dallas. It's gonna be tough, as back-to-back road games always are. Right now Tony Romo is garnering more hoopla than any middle-of-the-road quarterback ever has, so I'm hoping we can shut him up. More on all that later.
I'm glad I watched the MNF game last night (even if Dez did let me down), because now I can provide a more accurate prediction for the Lions-Cowboys game. The Lions is gonna be close ... probably DAL by 1.
Picks to come soon.
GO LIONS!! 3-0!!!!!!!
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Week 3 Picks
I had a miserable week 2 picking the games, but managed to go 7-7-2, bringing me to a crappy 13-16-3 this year. But oh well, it's hard to complain when the Lions win by 45 points.
Let's briefly break down that stunning conquest and then jump into week 3's picks.
First of all, I'm going to be the fun-blame monster and point out the truth that if Jamaal Charles didn't go down early in the first quarter, this wouldn't have been a 45 point blowout. That's just the facts. The Chiefs were without Charles for 55 minutes and Eric Berry for the entire game, and then lost Tamba Hali in the third quarter. That's their 3 best players, not to mention Moeaki is on IR and Jon Baldwin was gone too. The Chiefs were an injury-ravaged dumpster fire, and the Lions job was to pummel them into oblivion. Mission accomplished.
But let's be real. Before he went down, Charles had 2 carries for 27 yards. The Chiefs put up 91 yards on 20 carries with the backups. Our run defense is vulnerable, and we've got Adrian Peterson coming up this Sunday. The Lions absolutely cannot buy into their own hype this early in the season. Remember 2007? That team started 6-2, highlighted by a 44-7 drubbing of Denver. Then we went 1-25 in the next 26 games, or 5-47 in the next fifty-two games to be exact. Of course the 2011 Lions are light-years more talented than the '07 bunch, but still. Can't afford to believe you are truly 45 points better than anybody.
The good news is, Schwartz and Stafford are on the same page. They are taking a low-key, 'we-can-still-play-better' approach, which seems forced and stuffy but is actually totally accurate. Whether they are doing it because they think they should or because they know it's actually true is debatable. Either way, I'm glad they aren't making outlandish predictions and proclaiming that we own the NFC North. Still 14 games to be played.
Against KC, Stafford had another nearly flawless performance. He threw the one terrible pick early, but luckily got a fumble on that same play and a fresh set of downs. He only missed maybe one or two passes all game, which is outstanding on 39 attempts. He wasn't sacked at all, a testament to Jeff Backus, who amazingly kept Hali out of the backfield all game. But give credit to Stafford too; you can tell he's learned how to position himself in the pocket, how to step up, and how to get rid of the ball quickly. His new favorite move, the stare-at-the-safety-then-throw-somewhere-else maneuver, is hugely effective. He did not have that tactic in his arsenal in 2010. I love the new Stafford.
The running game was once again pathetic, gaining 89 yards on 30 carries. If you think I'm being too harsh, consider that we've averaged 3.3 YPC in the last two games, and the league's worst YPC last year was 3.6 (Bengals). However, part of the problem was giving Keiland Williams about 5 goal-line carries in the fourth quarter. Best was awesome out of the backfield catching passes, and lining up all over the field like vintage Marshall Faulk. But he struggles between the tackles. I really wish we had Mikel LeShoure.
Once again, the receivers were outstanding, with Burleson leading the way with 7 grabs and 93 yards. Titus Young made a splash (5 for 89) and the tight ends chipped in. I'm loving Tony Scheffler's weekly endzone dance. Calvin Johnson had only 29 yards and is mostly a redzone target right now; the way Burleson is playing, that's okay. It just means Calvin's being double-teamed on every down.
Defensively, the Lions really benefited from the absence of Charles and the awfulness of Matt Cassel. We beat the crap out of a bad team, which is exactly what we should do. We had 6 turnovers, 2 sacks, allowed only 267 yards, and yet I'm still looking for things to complain about.
Dwayne Bowe's 45 yard catch was crappy defense. We gave up a lot of rushing yards, as a I previously mentioned. But the Chiefs did run 29 times compared to 23 passing attempts, which is odd considering they were down 3 TDs most of the game. Todd Haley did a horrendous job coaching the Chiefs in every aspect, and will very likely be the first coach fired in 2011. It's him or Sparano, with a sleeper's chance to Jim Caldwell.
Next week, Detroit goes to Minnesota to face Mr. Chunky Soup himself, and the 0-2 Vikings. Don't let the record fool you; the Vikings led both their games by 10 at one point, and played two playoff-caliber teams. AP has 218 yards and a 5.3 YPC right now, so he's obviously priority #1. Just like the KC game, Detroit needs to stack the box and force the inept QB to make passes. Percy Harvin can get open, but he's the only viable receiver Minnesota has. We'll put Houston on him, give him some support on passing downs, but other than that, it's gotta be 9 in the box against AP on 1st and 2nd down. And even with that strategy, it'll still be surprising if he doesn't go well over 100 yards.
The good news is Nick Fairley might return this week, which is perfect timing. Fairley won't start, but he can alternate with Corey Williams and give them a 3-headed monster at DT. I would love to see Suh, Fairley and Williams all out there together. Forget the pass rush, let's concentrate on stopping the league's best running back. Anyway, let's hope I can put my prejudices behind me (stupid New York teams), make some decent picks, and get above .500.
Week 3 Picks
Lions (2-0) @ Vikings (0-2)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 3.5
Minnesota has won 21 of the last 23 matchups between these teams, dating all the way back to Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper. For the first time since the Barry era, Detroit legitimately has the better team.
The biggest advantage is at the quarterback position, where Stafford is playing like a rising star while McNabb is a shell of his former self. McNabb has just 267 passing yards in two games, a 55% completion percentage, and doesn't have enough time in the pocket (or good enough receivers) to complete any deep passes. The dink-and-dump stuff doesn't work for him because his short-range accuracy is atrocious. His mobility is pretty much gone. He's kind of a sitting duck, and by the way, Suh hasn't had a big hit on a QB yet this year and might be due.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota gets DT Kevin Williams back from suspension, and that will be huge for their defense. Detroit struggles at running up the middle no matter who the DTs are, but he makes it pretty much impossible. He also doubles as a rare DT who can rush the passer, so Raiola and Peterman are in for a tough matchup. On the left end, Backus faces the superior Jared Allen, so some RB/TE help will have to come. Fortunately, Detroit can spare an extra blocker or two, because the Vikings secondary is very beatable.
Calvin Johnson has a mismatch no matter who he plays, but Antoine Winfield worries me more than most. He's the physical type of corner who can jam Calvin at the line and can tackle him in the open field. I hope to see some deep routes to try to take advantage of Calvin's speed advantage. Burleson should perform well against his former team, and hopefully Pettigrew will bounce back from the nagging shoulder injury and play his first good game of 2011.
I have a crappy feeling that Detroit will win by just 3, but I don't want to pick the Vikings just on that chance. So I'm siding with the favorite, denying the homedog, and predicting the Lions to be 3-0 and the Vikings to be 0-3. I know this is stupid, I know I'm going to regret it, but I'm doing it anyway. Lions fall behind, come back, then hang on, for a 24-20 win.
The Christian Ponder Watch begins.
Jaguars (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)
Predicted Line: CAR by 1.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3.5
Everyone is so excited about the Cam Newton extravanganza that they must have forgotten about the other 21 guys who also play for Carolina. The loss of Jon Beason should force this line down to CAR by 1, but Newton's amazing play has made that impossible. The Panthers shouldn't be favored by more than 3 against anybody. Not with their defense. Not until they win a game. 84% of bettors are on the Cam Newton Wagon already; I'm still not sold. Jags win 27-17, and Luke McCown redeems himself just a little.
Quick note on the Jags QB situation: it's too soon to start Gabbert. I know it's more fun to play the rookie. I know McCown went 6 for 19 for 59 yards and 4 INTs last week for a 1.8 QB rating. And no, I've never seen a QB rating lower than 2. I don't think I've seen one lower than 40, even in a video game. But still ... it's too early in the season to give up on your supposed starter, and there's no shame in getting killed by an elite defense on the road. Now that the Colts are a rotting carcass, the AFC South is up for grabs. Jacksonville has to play to win and hope Houston derails; they might make the playoffs at 9-7. Probably not. But maybe.
*EDIT* Gabbert will start after all. Panthers are favored by 4. Still taking Jags against the spread. I think the Panthers win straight-up but it's close. I'll say 27-24.
Broncos (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)
Predicted Line: TEN by 7.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7
These two stupid teams are among the most frustrating reasons why I'm 13-16 against the spread. First they both lose at home against terrible teams; then Tennessee kicks the crap out of Baltimore. Really?
That fluky win inflated this line, and as a result the Titans are 7-point favorites when they should only be favored by 4 or 5. I'm taking Denver even though I have no reason to believe in them. I just think this spread is goofy. Titans win 30-24 ...?
Dolphins (0-2) @ Browns (1-1)
Predicted Line: CLE by 4.5
Actual Line: CLE by 2.5
Ah, the Left Tackle Bowl! Let's just say whichever team wins, that team's LT is deemed the league's best, because I'm sick of the Long/Thomas debate. I'm going with Cleveland, mainly beause it looks like the Dolphins might be quitting on their coach already, and the Dog Pound isn't an easy place to play. But that Fins front 7 can stop the run, so Colt McCoy is going to have to earn this win. I'll go Browns 23-17. Congrats Joe Thomas.
*Fantasy Update - Won 2 of the 3 main leagues; would have won them all but his Tony Gonzalez outscored my Antonio Gates 19-0. Went 10-3 overall in the 13 leagues. My sneaky move was picking up Kevin Ogeltree (Dallas' #3 receiver) because I had injured Dez on the bench. It didn't work out too well. 50 yards. Not terrible, but if I had played Daniel Thomas instead I would won.
*Edit - Miami's CB Vontae Davis is out. Cleveland doesn't have any good receivers to take advantage, but still big news. Definitely feel good taking the Browns. Might start Mohammad Massaquoi (or Greg Little) if I needed a fantasy receiver.
Giants (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1)
Predicted Line: ?? Is Vick going to play ??
Actual Line: None.
Still no line. They're saying Vick 'might' play, but also saying they feel confident with former Northwestern QB Mike Kafka. My gut is that Vick is out. Concussions are no minor deal.
If it's Vick, I'd say PHI by 7. With Kafka, PHI by 1. I'll comprimise and say Eagles are favored by 4.
On Sunday night, we saw the Eagles defense exposed in the middle of the field. The linebackers just flat out stink, and so do the safeties. Teams will avoid Asomugha like crazy all year (Roddy White had 4 targets last week), while running up the middle and offsetting the pass rush. It's a pretty simple equation right now, and Philly needs to make some serious adjustments. Fortunately, the Giants don't have a good tight end or possession receiver (they gave that guy to Philly in free agency), so it's likely be a huge workload for Bradshaw and Jacobs. That will work somewhat, but I wouldn't expect more than 17 or 20 points from New York.
Philly should surprise people if Kafka plays. They won't have their dog-murdering leader, but they'll still have McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, Celek, Steve Smith ... more than enough play-makers to take advantage of a crap-tastic Giants defense. I'm going with Kafka and the Eagles, 23-17.
*EDIT* Vick will play. Line is PHI by 9. That's a tad too high if you ask me. New York always plays their best against the Eagles. And I'm thinking Vick's concussion could lead to a few bone-head plays and turnovers. Eagles 27-20.
Texans (2-0) @ Saints (1-1)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 4
Two really, really good teams. I can't find a decent reason to pick against either team. I think this line ought to be 3, but the Saints have a superior quarterback and they're at home, so I guess I'll take them, 28-23.
Patriots (2-0) @ Bills (2-0)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 8.5
The Bills can score, and the Pats defense can't stop anybody. But let's be real. Brady shouldn't be less than a 14 point favorite to anybody. I'll take the Pats, 45-20.
49ers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 2.5
This one's tough. Everything is working against San Fran ... they're traveling West to East for a 1pm game, they just got heart-broken last week against Dallas in OT, and Cincy is playing better than people realize. I'm a big fan of Harbaugh, but I don't see San Fran as a winning road team until they get a new quarterback. Which reminds me ...
Has there ever been so much build-up for a #1 pick this early in a season? Not since LeBron right? The "Suck for Luck" campaign is building steam for at least 5 teams already. Fanbases all over the country are dreaming of Andrew Luck as their quarterback. It's uncanny. Two weeks ago, I would have pegged Oakland, Washington, Miami, and Seattle as the frontrunners. Now it appears that Indy and KC are in the mix, along with maybe San Fran if they lose this one. Still liking Miami as a 2-14 team. I was way wrong on Washington. Rex Grossman is not bad.
Oh, I'm taking Cincy at home. 20-17.
Chiefs (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)
Predicted Line: SD by 14.5
Actual Line: SD by 15
This was your classic "They Can't Make The Line High Enough" game. 82% of betting is on the team favored by 15. After the Chiefs 0-2 start and -79 point differential, not to mention a crushing injury to their best player, it makes sense to bet on the high-octane Chargers offense.
But speaking of injuries ... Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Michael Tolbert, and Antonio Gates are all on the injured list. San Diego is coming off an emotional loss to New England and might be flat. Plus they always stink in September. I think Rivers gets them off to a decent lead early, but doesn't kick the Chiefs into the hole. Also wouldn't be shocked to see speedy Dexter McCluster make a big play in Charles's stead. I like him as a fantasy pick-up.
Chargers get up 14-0 early, then coast. Final score: SD 27-16.
Jets (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 2
Actual Line: NYJ by 3.5
Speaking of team's being without star players ... here's one you might not have heard. Jets center Nick Mangold, also known as the best center in the NFL by far, is out for this game with an ankle sprain. He didn't even make the flight to Oakland. So while that isn't the juicy story of a Romo or Vick, it's just as important for the Jets offense. He's their best offensive player by a mile.
The other side of the coin ... Oakland stinks, and is overachieving just by being 1-1. They've played Denver and Buffalo and allowed 58 points - 6th most in the league. Their defense can't stop anybody. And their offense won't be able to move on the Jets.
But this is Oakland's home opener, and this line is too high considering Mangold's injury. I'm taking the Jets, and giving Oakland the cover. 17-15 Jets.
Ravens (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 2
Actual Line: BAL by 4
As I explained in the season preview, the Rams begin the schedule with 7 brutal games and follow that up with 7 easy games. But that doesn't mean they can start out 0-7. Sooner or later they've got to get a win. With Steven Jackson out and the Rams defense looking inept against the run, it's hard to imagine them getting that win here. Ray Rice should have another big day.
I'm starting to feel pretty confident that the Rams will become the first team to ever start 1-6 and win their division. Ravens take this one early and don't ease up. 31-20.
Falcons (1-1) @ Bucs (1-1)
Predicted Line: Pick
Actual Line: TB by 1.5
Big division game with both teams at 1-1. Both teams will bring it, knowing the importance of this one. I can't see any way this game isn't close. Tampa getting Tanard Jackson back from suspension will be underratedly important. I'm sick of betting for Matt Ryan on the road. He always lets me down. Tampa takes this one on yet another Freeman fourth-quarter comeback, 23-20.
Cardinals (1-1) @ Seattle (0-2)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 2.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 3.5
One of my philosophies is to not support crappy teams on the road. Arizona is a crappy team. And this is Seattle's home opener, plus the line shouldn't be above 3. That's three reasons to take Seattle. I hate everything about this game. Go Beanie Wells! Seahawks win 17-13.
Packers (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 5.5
Actual Line: GB by 3.5
Surprised by this line. The public hates Jay Cutler as much as I do, and the Bears offensive line appears to be in shambles. I still don't think people realize how stacked the Packers are. I'm calling for a huge blowout at Soldier Field. Packers by 27.
Steelers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8.5
Actual Line: PIT by 10
Man, this game sure looked different on the schedule a few weeks ago. Those damn Steelers have all the luck. Well, I guess we did face a Charles-less Chiefs last week ...
Speaking of the luck, Indy's chances at picking #1 are really starting to look serious. If they can't beat Cleveland at home, they can't compete with a still-pissed-off Pittsburgh team. No chance for Indy to not be 0-3.
But what about the spread? Isn't 10 points a bit much for Pittsburgh to cover, seeing as they are a ball-control offense who doesn't run up the score? Maybe, but it also wouldn't shock me if Pittsburgh's defense led to a TD or 2 late in the game. I'll take the Steelers in a modest blowout, 27-14, on Sunday night.
Redskins (2-0 ) @ Cowboys (1-1)
Predicted Line: Romo's Ribs! I mean, DAL by 5
Actual Line: ROMO'S RIBS! Holy crap, did you hear Romo had a PUNCTURED LUNG!!! What a stud!! He's such a hero!! OHMYGODISHEGOINGTOPLAYTHROUGHTHEPAINAGAIN?!?!
I'm getting so sick of sports radio lavishing over Romo like a wounder war hero. Dude played through some serious pain, won a game, it was awesome. But I'm so dang sick of hearing about it.
Aside from Romo, the Cowboys are also dealing with injuries to Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant ... in other words, their entire offense. For security purposes, I picked up Kitna in the league where I own Romo, and Ogeltree in the league where I have Dez. If all 4 offensive starters miss the game (a definite possibility), it will be Jon Kitna, DeMarco Murray, and Kevin Ogeltree on Monday night against the terrible Redskins defense.
There's still no line. I don't know what's going on, but I'm just taking Dallas because no way Grossman is 3-0.
GO LIONS.
Let's briefly break down that stunning conquest and then jump into week 3's picks.
First of all, I'm going to be the fun-blame monster and point out the truth that if Jamaal Charles didn't go down early in the first quarter, this wouldn't have been a 45 point blowout. That's just the facts. The Chiefs were without Charles for 55 minutes and Eric Berry for the entire game, and then lost Tamba Hali in the third quarter. That's their 3 best players, not to mention Moeaki is on IR and Jon Baldwin was gone too. The Chiefs were an injury-ravaged dumpster fire, and the Lions job was to pummel them into oblivion. Mission accomplished.
But let's be real. Before he went down, Charles had 2 carries for 27 yards. The Chiefs put up 91 yards on 20 carries with the backups. Our run defense is vulnerable, and we've got Adrian Peterson coming up this Sunday. The Lions absolutely cannot buy into their own hype this early in the season. Remember 2007? That team started 6-2, highlighted by a 44-7 drubbing of Denver. Then we went 1-25 in the next 26 games, or 5-47 in the next fifty-two games to be exact. Of course the 2011 Lions are light-years more talented than the '07 bunch, but still. Can't afford to believe you are truly 45 points better than anybody.
The good news is, Schwartz and Stafford are on the same page. They are taking a low-key, 'we-can-still-play-better' approach, which seems forced and stuffy but is actually totally accurate. Whether they are doing it because they think they should or because they know it's actually true is debatable. Either way, I'm glad they aren't making outlandish predictions and proclaiming that we own the NFC North. Still 14 games to be played.
Against KC, Stafford had another nearly flawless performance. He threw the one terrible pick early, but luckily got a fumble on that same play and a fresh set of downs. He only missed maybe one or two passes all game, which is outstanding on 39 attempts. He wasn't sacked at all, a testament to Jeff Backus, who amazingly kept Hali out of the backfield all game. But give credit to Stafford too; you can tell he's learned how to position himself in the pocket, how to step up, and how to get rid of the ball quickly. His new favorite move, the stare-at-the-safety-then-throw-somewhere-else maneuver, is hugely effective. He did not have that tactic in his arsenal in 2010. I love the new Stafford.
The running game was once again pathetic, gaining 89 yards on 30 carries. If you think I'm being too harsh, consider that we've averaged 3.3 YPC in the last two games, and the league's worst YPC last year was 3.6 (Bengals). However, part of the problem was giving Keiland Williams about 5 goal-line carries in the fourth quarter. Best was awesome out of the backfield catching passes, and lining up all over the field like vintage Marshall Faulk. But he struggles between the tackles. I really wish we had Mikel LeShoure.
Once again, the receivers were outstanding, with Burleson leading the way with 7 grabs and 93 yards. Titus Young made a splash (5 for 89) and the tight ends chipped in. I'm loving Tony Scheffler's weekly endzone dance. Calvin Johnson had only 29 yards and is mostly a redzone target right now; the way Burleson is playing, that's okay. It just means Calvin's being double-teamed on every down.
Defensively, the Lions really benefited from the absence of Charles and the awfulness of Matt Cassel. We beat the crap out of a bad team, which is exactly what we should do. We had 6 turnovers, 2 sacks, allowed only 267 yards, and yet I'm still looking for things to complain about.
Dwayne Bowe's 45 yard catch was crappy defense. We gave up a lot of rushing yards, as a I previously mentioned. But the Chiefs did run 29 times compared to 23 passing attempts, which is odd considering they were down 3 TDs most of the game. Todd Haley did a horrendous job coaching the Chiefs in every aspect, and will very likely be the first coach fired in 2011. It's him or Sparano, with a sleeper's chance to Jim Caldwell.
Next week, Detroit goes to Minnesota to face Mr. Chunky Soup himself, and the 0-2 Vikings. Don't let the record fool you; the Vikings led both their games by 10 at one point, and played two playoff-caliber teams. AP has 218 yards and a 5.3 YPC right now, so he's obviously priority #1. Just like the KC game, Detroit needs to stack the box and force the inept QB to make passes. Percy Harvin can get open, but he's the only viable receiver Minnesota has. We'll put Houston on him, give him some support on passing downs, but other than that, it's gotta be 9 in the box against AP on 1st and 2nd down. And even with that strategy, it'll still be surprising if he doesn't go well over 100 yards.
The good news is Nick Fairley might return this week, which is perfect timing. Fairley won't start, but he can alternate with Corey Williams and give them a 3-headed monster at DT. I would love to see Suh, Fairley and Williams all out there together. Forget the pass rush, let's concentrate on stopping the league's best running back. Anyway, let's hope I can put my prejudices behind me (stupid New York teams), make some decent picks, and get above .500.
Week 3 Picks
Lions (2-0) @ Vikings (0-2)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 3.5
Minnesota has won 21 of the last 23 matchups between these teams, dating all the way back to Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper. For the first time since the Barry era, Detroit legitimately has the better team.
The biggest advantage is at the quarterback position, where Stafford is playing like a rising star while McNabb is a shell of his former self. McNabb has just 267 passing yards in two games, a 55% completion percentage, and doesn't have enough time in the pocket (or good enough receivers) to complete any deep passes. The dink-and-dump stuff doesn't work for him because his short-range accuracy is atrocious. His mobility is pretty much gone. He's kind of a sitting duck, and by the way, Suh hasn't had a big hit on a QB yet this year and might be due.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota gets DT Kevin Williams back from suspension, and that will be huge for their defense. Detroit struggles at running up the middle no matter who the DTs are, but he makes it pretty much impossible. He also doubles as a rare DT who can rush the passer, so Raiola and Peterman are in for a tough matchup. On the left end, Backus faces the superior Jared Allen, so some RB/TE help will have to come. Fortunately, Detroit can spare an extra blocker or two, because the Vikings secondary is very beatable.
Calvin Johnson has a mismatch no matter who he plays, but Antoine Winfield worries me more than most. He's the physical type of corner who can jam Calvin at the line and can tackle him in the open field. I hope to see some deep routes to try to take advantage of Calvin's speed advantage. Burleson should perform well against his former team, and hopefully Pettigrew will bounce back from the nagging shoulder injury and play his first good game of 2011.
I have a crappy feeling that Detroit will win by just 3, but I don't want to pick the Vikings just on that chance. So I'm siding with the favorite, denying the homedog, and predicting the Lions to be 3-0 and the Vikings to be 0-3. I know this is stupid, I know I'm going to regret it, but I'm doing it anyway. Lions fall behind, come back, then hang on, for a 24-20 win.
The Christian Ponder Watch begins.
Jaguars (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)
Predicted Line: CAR by 1.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3.5
Everyone is so excited about the Cam Newton extravanganza that they must have forgotten about the other 21 guys who also play for Carolina. The loss of Jon Beason should force this line down to CAR by 1, but Newton's amazing play has made that impossible. The Panthers shouldn't be favored by more than 3 against anybody. Not with their defense. Not until they win a game. 84% of bettors are on the Cam Newton Wagon already; I'm still not sold. Jags win 27-17, and Luke McCown redeems himself just a little.
Quick note on the Jags QB situation: it's too soon to start Gabbert. I know it's more fun to play the rookie. I know McCown went 6 for 19 for 59 yards and 4 INTs last week for a 1.8 QB rating. And no, I've never seen a QB rating lower than 2. I don't think I've seen one lower than 40, even in a video game. But still ... it's too early in the season to give up on your supposed starter, and there's no shame in getting killed by an elite defense on the road. Now that the Colts are a rotting carcass, the AFC South is up for grabs. Jacksonville has to play to win and hope Houston derails; they might make the playoffs at 9-7. Probably not. But maybe.
*EDIT* Gabbert will start after all. Panthers are favored by 4. Still taking Jags against the spread. I think the Panthers win straight-up but it's close. I'll say 27-24.
Broncos (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)
Predicted Line: TEN by 7.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7
These two stupid teams are among the most frustrating reasons why I'm 13-16 against the spread. First they both lose at home against terrible teams; then Tennessee kicks the crap out of Baltimore. Really?
That fluky win inflated this line, and as a result the Titans are 7-point favorites when they should only be favored by 4 or 5. I'm taking Denver even though I have no reason to believe in them. I just think this spread is goofy. Titans win 30-24 ...?
Dolphins (0-2) @ Browns (1-1)
Predicted Line: CLE by 4.5
Actual Line: CLE by 2.5
Ah, the Left Tackle Bowl! Let's just say whichever team wins, that team's LT is deemed the league's best, because I'm sick of the Long/Thomas debate. I'm going with Cleveland, mainly beause it looks like the Dolphins might be quitting on their coach already, and the Dog Pound isn't an easy place to play. But that Fins front 7 can stop the run, so Colt McCoy is going to have to earn this win. I'll go Browns 23-17. Congrats Joe Thomas.
*Fantasy Update - Won 2 of the 3 main leagues; would have won them all but his Tony Gonzalez outscored my Antonio Gates 19-0. Went 10-3 overall in the 13 leagues. My sneaky move was picking up Kevin Ogeltree (Dallas' #3 receiver) because I had injured Dez on the bench. It didn't work out too well. 50 yards. Not terrible, but if I had played Daniel Thomas instead I would won.
*Edit - Miami's CB Vontae Davis is out. Cleveland doesn't have any good receivers to take advantage, but still big news. Definitely feel good taking the Browns. Might start Mohammad Massaquoi (or Greg Little) if I needed a fantasy receiver.
Giants (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1)
Predicted Line: ?? Is Vick going to play ??
Actual Line: None.
Still no line. They're saying Vick 'might' play, but also saying they feel confident with former Northwestern QB Mike Kafka. My gut is that Vick is out. Concussions are no minor deal.
If it's Vick, I'd say PHI by 7. With Kafka, PHI by 1. I'll comprimise and say Eagles are favored by 4.
On Sunday night, we saw the Eagles defense exposed in the middle of the field. The linebackers just flat out stink, and so do the safeties. Teams will avoid Asomugha like crazy all year (Roddy White had 4 targets last week), while running up the middle and offsetting the pass rush. It's a pretty simple equation right now, and Philly needs to make some serious adjustments. Fortunately, the Giants don't have a good tight end or possession receiver (they gave that guy to Philly in free agency), so it's likely be a huge workload for Bradshaw and Jacobs. That will work somewhat, but I wouldn't expect more than 17 or 20 points from New York.
Philly should surprise people if Kafka plays. They won't have their dog-murdering leader, but they'll still have McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, Celek, Steve Smith ... more than enough play-makers to take advantage of a crap-tastic Giants defense. I'm going with Kafka and the Eagles, 23-17.
*EDIT* Vick will play. Line is PHI by 9. That's a tad too high if you ask me. New York always plays their best against the Eagles. And I'm thinking Vick's concussion could lead to a few bone-head plays and turnovers. Eagles 27-20.
Texans (2-0) @ Saints (1-1)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 4
Two really, really good teams. I can't find a decent reason to pick against either team. I think this line ought to be 3, but the Saints have a superior quarterback and they're at home, so I guess I'll take them, 28-23.
Patriots (2-0) @ Bills (2-0)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 8.5
The Bills can score, and the Pats defense can't stop anybody. But let's be real. Brady shouldn't be less than a 14 point favorite to anybody. I'll take the Pats, 45-20.
49ers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 2.5
This one's tough. Everything is working against San Fran ... they're traveling West to East for a 1pm game, they just got heart-broken last week against Dallas in OT, and Cincy is playing better than people realize. I'm a big fan of Harbaugh, but I don't see San Fran as a winning road team until they get a new quarterback. Which reminds me ...
Has there ever been so much build-up for a #1 pick this early in a season? Not since LeBron right? The "Suck for Luck" campaign is building steam for at least 5 teams already. Fanbases all over the country are dreaming of Andrew Luck as their quarterback. It's uncanny. Two weeks ago, I would have pegged Oakland, Washington, Miami, and Seattle as the frontrunners. Now it appears that Indy and KC are in the mix, along with maybe San Fran if they lose this one. Still liking Miami as a 2-14 team. I was way wrong on Washington. Rex Grossman is not bad.
Oh, I'm taking Cincy at home. 20-17.
Chiefs (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)
Predicted Line: SD by 14.5
Actual Line: SD by 15
This was your classic "They Can't Make The Line High Enough" game. 82% of betting is on the team favored by 15. After the Chiefs 0-2 start and -79 point differential, not to mention a crushing injury to their best player, it makes sense to bet on the high-octane Chargers offense.
But speaking of injuries ... Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Michael Tolbert, and Antonio Gates are all on the injured list. San Diego is coming off an emotional loss to New England and might be flat. Plus they always stink in September. I think Rivers gets them off to a decent lead early, but doesn't kick the Chiefs into the hole. Also wouldn't be shocked to see speedy Dexter McCluster make a big play in Charles's stead. I like him as a fantasy pick-up.
Chargers get up 14-0 early, then coast. Final score: SD 27-16.
Jets (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 2
Actual Line: NYJ by 3.5
Speaking of team's being without star players ... here's one you might not have heard. Jets center Nick Mangold, also known as the best center in the NFL by far, is out for this game with an ankle sprain. He didn't even make the flight to Oakland. So while that isn't the juicy story of a Romo or Vick, it's just as important for the Jets offense. He's their best offensive player by a mile.
The other side of the coin ... Oakland stinks, and is overachieving just by being 1-1. They've played Denver and Buffalo and allowed 58 points - 6th most in the league. Their defense can't stop anybody. And their offense won't be able to move on the Jets.
But this is Oakland's home opener, and this line is too high considering Mangold's injury. I'm taking the Jets, and giving Oakland the cover. 17-15 Jets.
Ravens (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 2
Actual Line: BAL by 4
As I explained in the season preview, the Rams begin the schedule with 7 brutal games and follow that up with 7 easy games. But that doesn't mean they can start out 0-7. Sooner or later they've got to get a win. With Steven Jackson out and the Rams defense looking inept against the run, it's hard to imagine them getting that win here. Ray Rice should have another big day.
I'm starting to feel pretty confident that the Rams will become the first team to ever start 1-6 and win their division. Ravens take this one early and don't ease up. 31-20.
Falcons (1-1) @ Bucs (1-1)
Predicted Line: Pick
Actual Line: TB by 1.5
Big division game with both teams at 1-1. Both teams will bring it, knowing the importance of this one. I can't see any way this game isn't close. Tampa getting Tanard Jackson back from suspension will be underratedly important. I'm sick of betting for Matt Ryan on the road. He always lets me down. Tampa takes this one on yet another Freeman fourth-quarter comeback, 23-20.
Cardinals (1-1) @ Seattle (0-2)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 2.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 3.5
One of my philosophies is to not support crappy teams on the road. Arizona is a crappy team. And this is Seattle's home opener, plus the line shouldn't be above 3. That's three reasons to take Seattle. I hate everything about this game. Go Beanie Wells! Seahawks win 17-13.
Packers (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 5.5
Actual Line: GB by 3.5
Surprised by this line. The public hates Jay Cutler as much as I do, and the Bears offensive line appears to be in shambles. I still don't think people realize how stacked the Packers are. I'm calling for a huge blowout at Soldier Field. Packers by 27.
Steelers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8.5
Actual Line: PIT by 10
Man, this game sure looked different on the schedule a few weeks ago. Those damn Steelers have all the luck. Well, I guess we did face a Charles-less Chiefs last week ...
Speaking of the luck, Indy's chances at picking #1 are really starting to look serious. If they can't beat Cleveland at home, they can't compete with a still-pissed-off Pittsburgh team. No chance for Indy to not be 0-3.
But what about the spread? Isn't 10 points a bit much for Pittsburgh to cover, seeing as they are a ball-control offense who doesn't run up the score? Maybe, but it also wouldn't shock me if Pittsburgh's defense led to a TD or 2 late in the game. I'll take the Steelers in a modest blowout, 27-14, on Sunday night.
Redskins (2-0 ) @ Cowboys (1-1)
Predicted Line: Romo's Ribs! I mean, DAL by 5
Actual Line: ROMO'S RIBS! Holy crap, did you hear Romo had a PUNCTURED LUNG!!! What a stud!! He's such a hero!! OHMYGODISHEGOINGTOPLAYTHROUGHTHEPAINAGAIN?!?!
I'm getting so sick of sports radio lavishing over Romo like a wounder war hero. Dude played through some serious pain, won a game, it was awesome. But I'm so dang sick of hearing about it.
Aside from Romo, the Cowboys are also dealing with injuries to Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant ... in other words, their entire offense. For security purposes, I picked up Kitna in the league where I own Romo, and Ogeltree in the league where I have Dez. If all 4 offensive starters miss the game (a definite possibility), it will be Jon Kitna, DeMarco Murray, and Kevin Ogeltree on Monday night against the terrible Redskins defense.
There's still no line. I don't know what's going on, but I'm just taking Dallas because no way Grossman is 3-0.
GO LIONS.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Week Two Picks
Chiefs (0-1) @ Lions (1-0)
Predicted Line: DET by 8.5
Actual Line: DET by 8
Wow. It took me a pretty long time, but I finally found the last game in which Detroit was favored by more than a touchdown.
Eleven years ago, the 9-6 Lions, led by Charlie Batch, headed into week 17 against the 4-11 Bears and infamous quarterback Cade McNown. Detroit lost that game, 23-20, and consequently missed the playoffs. I remember that game because I couldn't watch it; I had to work, at Meijer, pushing shopping carts in the snow.
Now, I am out of college, married, almost 2 kids, and the Lions still haven't played a playoff game since that fateful Decemeber day. Nor have they been favored by 7 points. This is wonderful but completely unfamiliar territory.
The line certainly makes sense on paper. Detroit outplayed a pretty good Tampa team, KC got destroyed at home by a supposed terrible team, and now Eric Berry is out. With Berry in the lineup, this line is probably Lions by 6 or 6.5. But with all the hype surrounding our Lions, it's no surprise that 76% of bettors are going with Detroit to win by 8, and that argument can easily be made.
To wit: Suh and Co. will dominate against KC's lousy O-line, Cassel looked clueless last week and everyone knows he's going to suck without Charlie Wies, and ohbytheway, Matthew Stafford is God's gift to the art of quarterbacking. Add in the injury to Berry and you've got the makings of a blowout.
On paper.
But Detroit has never played on paper. Last week was sort of an exception. We have always played down to inferior foes, and played our best against elite teams. Even back in the 90s.
Historically, Detroit hasn't been a dominant home team. Getting off to an early lead will be key, because that could potentially take Jamaal Charles out of the gameplan. He's the Chiefs best player, and possibly the most dangerous big-play running back in the league. The linebackers were great last week against Blount, but Charles is a completely different animal. It's definitely going to require 8 in the box, which is okay because our safeties excel in run support.
Predicted Line: DET by 8.5
Actual Line: DET by 8
Wow. It took me a pretty long time, but I finally found the last game in which Detroit was favored by more than a touchdown.
Eleven years ago, the 9-6 Lions, led by Charlie Batch, headed into week 17 against the 4-11 Bears and infamous quarterback Cade McNown. Detroit lost that game, 23-20, and consequently missed the playoffs. I remember that game because I couldn't watch it; I had to work, at Meijer, pushing shopping carts in the snow.
Now, I am out of college, married, almost 2 kids, and the Lions still haven't played a playoff game since that fateful Decemeber day. Nor have they been favored by 7 points. This is wonderful but completely unfamiliar territory.
The line certainly makes sense on paper. Detroit outplayed a pretty good Tampa team, KC got destroyed at home by a supposed terrible team, and now Eric Berry is out. With Berry in the lineup, this line is probably Lions by 6 or 6.5. But with all the hype surrounding our Lions, it's no surprise that 76% of bettors are going with Detroit to win by 8, and that argument can easily be made.
To wit: Suh and Co. will dominate against KC's lousy O-line, Cassel looked clueless last week and everyone knows he's going to suck without Charlie Wies, and ohbytheway, Matthew Stafford is God's gift to the art of quarterbacking. Add in the injury to Berry and you've got the makings of a blowout.
On paper.
But Detroit has never played on paper. Last week was sort of an exception. We have always played down to inferior foes, and played our best against elite teams. Even back in the 90s.
Historically, Detroit hasn't been a dominant home team. Getting off to an early lead will be key, because that could potentially take Jamaal Charles out of the gameplan. He's the Chiefs best player, and possibly the most dangerous big-play running back in the league. The linebackers were great last week against Blount, but Charles is a completely different animal. It's definitely going to require 8 in the box, which is okay because our safeties excel in run support.
The toughest matchup for Detroit's defense is Chris Houston against Dwayne Bowe. Not only does Houston give up 3 inches and 40 pounds, but he's also going to see plenty of single coverage. Fortunately for Detroit, Matt Cassel sucks, so Bowe should only be able to find 6 or 7 balls for maybe 80 yards.
On the other end, Detroit has mismatches all over the secondary and with both tight ends. KC gave up 63 yards and 2 scores to Buffalo's tight end whom I never heard of. Brandon Flowers is a decent cornerback, but he doesn't have a chance against Calvin.
The only dangerous player on KC's defense is OLB Tamba Hali, who will definitely overpower Jeff Backus. Detroit needs to play it smart and give Backus some help; expect to see lots of Maurice Morris in the backfield on passing downs, giving Backus some help. Probably Pettigrew lines up next to Backus a lot and keeps Hali in check.
I feel really confident about a Lions victory, probably more confident than I have in 10 years. But the spread is a reflection of Detroit's slight overratedness, and a possible overreaction to Berry's injury. Detroit just hasn't earned the right to be 8 point favorites; Stafford has only won three games in his career, so let's not overreact.
Lions 27, Chiefs 21.
Browns (0-1) @ Colts (0-2)
Predicted Line: CLE by 2.5
Actual Line: CLE by 2.5
This is not at all what I think the line should be, but it makes sense. After last week's debacle, America will be anxious to bet against Kerry Collins. It's 56% action on Cleveland, although the Colts are at home, and they've won at least 10 games in 8 straight seasons. They may not have Peyton Manning, but they do have some proud veteran players in Freeney, Clark, Wayne, Brackett, Mathis, Saturday ... and with America completely bashing them for the past week, they might be eager to beat up on the Browns.
Cleveland has some key matchup advantages (Joe Thomas-Dwight Freeney stands out), but I just really see this as a Colts win. Low scoring, not pretty, but Colts win their first game without Peyton in 14 years. I'll say 19-14.
Buccaneers (0-1) @ Vikings (0-1)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2
Actual Line: MIN by 3
With Kevin Williams still suspended, the Vikings defense won't pose many threats to Josh Freeman, who barely had a chance to produce last week. This week I think he'll be much happier, and Mike Williams should have a big day, as will Blount. Minnesota just doesn't have the defense to stop a well-rounded offense like Tampa Bay.
On the other side, Tampa won't stop at putting 8 in the box. They'll likely go 9 on most plays, leaving Talib in single-coverage against Harvin. Defenses are going to be forcing McNabb to try to beat them all year. I'd expect AP to run for 80-90 yards but McNabb should struggle again. The 0-2 Vikings will be forced to start thinking about Christian Ponder.
Bucs win this one on the road, 34-24.
Packers (1-0) @ Panthers (0-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 11.5
Actual Line: GB by 9.5
This is about as big a spread as you'll see for a road team. 87% of betting is on Green Bay, a clear sign that the public isn't buying into Cam Newton's marvelous week one. Throwing for 422 yards against any defense is impressive, but the Cardinals might have the league's worst D in the NFL this year. On the other hand, Green Bay is probably the league's best, with apologies to the Steelers. They've got star players at 7 or 8 positions on D. It's unfair. For those of you who picked up Steve Smith off waivers, good move, but don't play him this week. Don't play any Panthers. Newton will be lucky to get out of there alive.
Rodgers won't have any issues whatsoever. 10 points is a lot for a road team, but I just don't see how this game can be close. Packers 38-13.
Not taking this as my survivor pick because I'd rather not take a road team unless I have no better option. Which leads me to ...
Seahawks (0-1) @ Steelers (0-1)
Predicted Line: PIT by 14.5
Actual Line: PIT by 14
I'll keep this short: Lock of the Week, Survivor pick, no doubt whatsoever. Steelers score 6 touchdowns, 4 on offense and 2 on defense. Not only does Pittsburgh have them outmanned at every single position, but Seattle has to fly from West to East for an early game, which is always a recipe for disaster. If you need a WR this week in fantasy, pick up Emmanuel Sanders or Antonio Brown. One of them, or maybe both, will score a 50 yard TD.
Dem Stellers er back. 38-6.
Ravens (1-0) @ Titans (0-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5
Actual Line: BAL by 5.5
After seeing Tennessee fail to compete last week against Jacksonville, it's curious that this spread is less than a TD. The matchups all swing in Baltimore's favor.
Tennessee only does one thing well, and that's the running game. Last week they forgot about that page in the playbook, and consequently lost. This week they'll respond to Chris Johnson's unhappiness and give him 25 carries. Too bad Balitmore doesn't let you run. Sonic will get maybe 70 yards, and that means lots of 3rd and longs for Matt Hasselbeck, which means sacks, INTs, and all sorts of bad things for the Titans.
Baltimore rolls again. Two straight blowout wins. Flacco for MVP?
Ravens 31-10.
Cardinals (1-0) @ Redskins (1-0)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 3.5
The classic Week Two Battle of Terrible Undefeated Teams. I always hate this game. One of these goofs is going to be 2-0.
Guess I'll take the Redskins. The whole 'West to East, 1pm' thing. 23-17.
Raiders (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
A third West coast team going East for an early game. Oakland played Monday at midnight so they've got an even shorter week. Plus Buffalo just looked dang good against KC, particularly against the run, which is Oakland's strength. I'd bet real money on this game if I could. Bills win big, 30-13.
Jaguars (1-0) @ Jets (1-0)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 9
Actual Line: NYJ by 9
To cover a 9 point spread, you've got to score at least 9 points. Is this Jets offense even remotely good? They'll almost certainly win, but I've gotta take the points until I see more from Mark Sanchez. New York 23-16.
Bears (1-0) @ Saints (0-1)
Predicted Line: NO by 6.5
Actual Line: NO by 6.5
We've seen a trend over the last few years that the Saints don't usually cover big spreads. They aren't 'Run up the Score' guys. But they've got to be pissed coming off last week's Thursday night loss, knowing they are the best 0-1 team in the NFL. Sean Peyton has had an extra 3 days to prepare for the Bears D. Despite being without Marques Colston, I still love the Saints in this game. Mainly I just hate the Bears. Go figure. How about 34-13 in favor of the home team.
Cowboys (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2.5
Actual Line: DAL by 3
Tough call. I'm going with the homedog, because I think Dallas is all hype at the sexy positions but no substances in the trenches. Conventional wisdom says the Cowboys will score bunches of points and San Fran can't keep up, but I don't think logic ever applies to the Cowboys. Plus it's Harbaugh's home opener. Final score: Dallas 24, San Fran 23.
Texans (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 3
There are a lot of 7 point spreads this week, and I'm mildly surprised this isn't one of them. I've got Houston at 12-4 and Miami at 2-14, so the talent disparity is quite enormous in my mind. The Dolphins usually have an edge with CB Vontae Davis, but Andre Johnson is one of the few receivers he isn't able to stop. Miami has a B+ defense, but Houston will counter with an A- offense. On the other side of the ball, we've got an All Pro matchup with Jake Long against Mario Williams, which is a push. But Houston wins nearly every other battle, and wins this game big, on the road. Miami's homefield advantage is an oxymoron. Texans 28-16.
Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 7
Not fair because I heard the spread on the radio. It seems a little bizarre to say that anybody is 4 points better than the Chargers, but I don't think this line is a reflection of the Chargers at all. It's merely saying 'New England is in a league of their own.' Which is true. Rivers fights admirably, but Brady is the superior quarterback and competitor. Pats cover, 42-30.
Bengals (1-0) @ Broncos (0-1)
Predicted Line: DEN by 1
Actual Line: DEN by 3.5
In a sick way, this game might be entertaining to watch. Lots of highly motivated players: Orton trying to prove to his home crowd that he deserves to play; Dalton trying to prove that he's not a colossal doofus; Denver's defense trying to redeem itself. Neither team has much talent at all, but the best player in this game is probably Elvis Dumervil, who has a cake matchup against LT Andrew Whitworth. Cincy will try to offset Denver's scary DEs with Cedric Benson through the tackles, which shouldn't be too difficult. Meanwhile, Denver has 3 key injuries - Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd, and Champ Bailey. All three guys are questionable. Because of that, Cincy is probably the better team. Their defense is a little bit underrated. I'll take the road team in an upset, 24-20.
Eagles (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Line: PHI by 1.5
Philly definitely wins this game on paper; Asomugha can reduce Roddy White to nothing, the dynamic duo of DEs can rush Matt Ryan, and Atlanta does not have the speed to contain or adequately pressure Vick. But with all the emotion in the Georgia Dome as Vick makes his pseudo-triumphant return, I don't think this game will play out in a predictable manner.
Philly really has only one weakness, and that's the interior of the defense. They can be run on. And Michael Turner surprisingly looked full-strength last week. Expect Atlanta to run early and often with Turner, for no reason other than to keep the dog-killer on the sidelines. If they move the chains and eat the clock, they can keep this score low enough to give them a chance to win.
When Philly has the ball, they'll score almost at will. The only person who can defeat Michael Vick in this game will be Michael Vick. A couple errant throws or careless fumbles and it'll be a win for the Falcons. Atlanta's job is to keep Vick off the field, keep the crowd in the game, and keep the score low. At home, Matt Ryan is 15-6 against the spread. I like Atlanta by a late field goal, 27-24.
Rams (0-1) @ Giants (0-1)
Monday night
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 6
This line is preposterous. The Giants just lost to the Redskins! Their entire defense is hurt. Eli Manning looks absolutely godawful. And the Rams are coached by New York's former D-coordinator. Plus Hakeem Nicks is questionable, which is a bigger blow to the Giants than Steven Jackson's injury is for St. Louis. Running backs are easier to replace. Cadillac is going to have a huge game. I'm taking the Rams to win outright, and I'm making it the Upset of the Week. 23-17.
Go Lions!
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Week One Recap
First, the bad news. I went 6-9 against the spread this week, with one tie. If I had picked the games straight up, I'd have been 11-5. Those freaking point spreads killed me. I was particularly hurt by some special teams insanity - notably Ted Ginn and Percy Harvin, and some untimely injuries - Sam Bradford and Andy Dalton. If Bruce Gradkowski didn't come in and save the day for the Bengals, I'm sure the Browns would have triumphed.
Now, the good news.
The Lions won, by almost the exact score I predicted. The Steelers lost, by 28 points to their biggest rival while losing their starting RT for the season. And my 13 fantasy teams went 10-3, with all three teams that I care about getting off to 1-0 starts.
Overall, it was a pretty awesome weekend.
To make things even better, Kansas City (Detroit's week 2 opponent) got shellacked in their opener, and also lost one of their best players, Eric Berry, who would have been covering Calvin Johnson. I'm sad for Berry, a budding star from the 2010 draft, but I'm happy in regards to the week 2 matchup.
Let's quickly dissect each game, and how I managed to go 6-9 against the spread.
Packers 42, Saints 34
The opener went almost exactly as I predicted, but with a few unexpected special teams touchdowns. These are two of the best teams in the NFL, period. It's a shame somebody had to lose. The key story is Colston's broken shoulder; time to pick up Meachem and Henderson off waivers.
Lions 27, Bucs 20
I called Lions 27-13, so if the Bucs didn't get that TD with 1:30 left I would have nailed it exactly. This game was played out almost exactly how I described it.
The key was Matthew Stafford, who is making it difficult for me to continue criticizing him. He made some errant throws, particularly the pick-six, but his overall play was at least a B+. He basically played up to his level of hype for the first time in his entire career. Consider this:
-This game was only the third time that Stafford has started a game and won that game without getting injured. The other two times were home games against the terrible Redskins. This was Stafford's first road victory, and first victory against a good team. That's a double awesome bonus if you ask me.
-This was Stafford's best statistical game with a 118 QB rating. He completed 72% of his passes for a 9.2 YPA. He had never reached either of those figures before in any game. Only one other time in his short career has Stafford eclipsed a 95 QB rating, and that was the famously stupid Cleveland game in which he threw two ugly picks.
-Tampa's defense actually played pretty well.
-I think this was the first Lions game in two full seasons where I did not see Matt Stafford wearing a backwards hat on the sideline. We are making huge strides of progress guys.
There was a lot to like about this game besides the play of the quarterback. Suh and Calvin looked like their typical sensational selves. Stephen Tulloch looked absolutely phenomenal, holding LeGarrate Blount to 15 rushing yards on 5 carries. Burleson and Pettigrew played well, the O-line did good enough, and the cornerbacks held their own. Second-year safety Amari Spievey had a great game with 7 tackles, and Chris Houston made a real nice interception.
But of course there were some areas for improvement. Let's start with the rushing game, which accrued 126 yards on 35 carries for a dismal 3.6 YPC. Take out Burleson's 20 yard end-around and it's a 3.1 YPC for Best and Harrison. That's atrocious. Granted, Tampa is pretty stout against the run, but when you run the ball 35 times you ought to gain a lot more than 126 yards. I liked Detroit's commitment to the run; we kept Freeman off the field and dominated time of possession by 13 minutes. I just wished Best were a little more elusive and made at least one big play. On 21 carries, his longest rush was 9 yards.
The other eyesore was the kickoff coverage team, which gave up a 78 yard runback to Sammie Stroughter. All preseason long Detroit was stuffing returners inside their own 15. Then Tampa takes the first kickoff all the way to the 21. Fortunately, Detroit's defense responded and held them to 3.
There's not much else to complain about. The Lions won a road game against a playoff-caliber team and we didn't lose any players to injury. This Sunday against KC is shaping up to be another nice matchup. I am growing a beard and not shaving until the Lions lose.
Bears 30, Falcons 12
Chalk this one up to Julius Peppers. He won this game for Chicago, with two sacks, a forced fumble that led to a TD, and constant pressure on Matt Ryan. Chicago continues to relish the "Nobody Believes in Us" role. And I will continue to not believe in them.
Bengals 27, Browns 17
Lot of surprises here. Cleveland was much worse than anticipated, especially Colt McCoy. Dalton was okay, but maybe the Browns defense was terrible. All that being said, the Browns were up by 4 when Dalton got hurt, and it was probably Bruce Gradkowski who ruining this game for me.
Bills 41, Chiefs 7
My Upset of the Week was brilliant; the Bills offense was a machine, the Chiefs were horrendous in every way, and Eric Berry was lost for the season. Buffalo's defense is to be reckoned with.
Eagles 31, Rams 13
This game was closer than the score looks, and Bradford's injury sparked the blowout. Steven Jackson is gone for at least a week; Cadillac is a no-brainer off waivers. Vick ran for 97 yards but didn't pass the ball very well.
Jaguars 16, Titans 14
You give Chris Johnson 9 carries, you're asking for a loss. If I had Kenny Britt (5 catches, 136 yards, 2 TDs), I'd trade him while his stock is high. No way he'll have another 80 yard TD anytime soon. The Jags stink, but won because Tennessee has no identity or gameplan.
Ravens 35, Steelers 7
Seven Pittsburgh turnovers, two INTs for Reed, near-perfect game for Flacco ... this could have been any more beautiful.
Texans 34, Colts 7
I called Texans 41-7. If Schaub doesn't throw a pick 10 yards from the endzone I nail this pick exactly. Kerry Collins couldn't have been much worse. All this talk about the Colts getting Andrew Luck next year is absurd; there are at least 5 other teams who will be picking ahead of them. And even if the Colts were #1, they'd take someone else. Texans look sick.
Cardinals 28, Panthers 21
I'm speechless. Did Cam Newton really throw for 422 yards? On the road? Granted, the Cardinals defense is AWFUL, but I'm still amazed. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they lost the game, and more importantly lost their best defensive player (MLB Jon Beason) for the rest of the year with an Achilles injury. Their defense is dead meat. This game hit the spread exactly, ARZ by 7.
Chargers 24, Vikings 17
My Survivor pick was in jeopardy, as the Chargers were slow out of the gate, unable to tackle Peterson, and trailing by 10 at halftime. McNabb only had 7 completions for a hilarious 39 yards, so it was easy for San Diego to mount the comeback. Vincent Jackson (2 catches, 31 yards) had what will be his worst game of the season.
49ers 33, Seahawks 17
Both teams are horrendous, but Seattle is worse. I called this game dead-on but lost the ATS pick because of two special teams scores in the last quarter.
Redskins 28, Giants 14
Is it time for me to start eating my words about Rex Grossman? Or do the Giants just have a GVSU secondary? I don't know, but Eli was TERRIBLE once again, and the Redskins D is much better than I expected. Looks like they won't be getting Andrew Luck after all.
Jets 27, Cowboys 24
If you listen to sports radio, you've heard all about Tony Romo. Somehow he was the dominant story of week one, even though he did nothing special. He played pretty good (B+) in the first three quarters, and made two dumb mistakes to lose the game in the 4th. Big deal. Jets are well-balanced and smart. Cowboys are flash but no substance. They suck in the secondary and the O-line, and we'll see lots of games like this from Romo.
Patriots 38, Dolphins 24
Good news: New England's offense is unstoppable. Bad news: their defense looked lousy against Chad Henne. This game was totally predictable but still awesomely fun to watch.
Raiders 23, Broncos 20
Oops. Guess I whiffed on the Lock of the Week. Poor Kyle Orton's home game turned into a road game, with all the fans rooting against him. Denver is a freaking mess. Tebow will be starting by week 4.
Overall, week one was a learning experience in a lot of ways. A few teams proved to be better than expected (Jacksonville, Washington) while others were worse (Chiefs, Colts). I'm not worried about the Steelers or Falcons yet, and not buying any of the hype about Chicago, Oakland or Cam Newton. At least not yet.
Overall I'd say my preseason assessments were dead-on accurate for about 22 teams, and that's a pretty decent start.
Tigers have won 12 in a row. Week two picks up soon.
Now, the good news.
The Lions won, by almost the exact score I predicted. The Steelers lost, by 28 points to their biggest rival while losing their starting RT for the season. And my 13 fantasy teams went 10-3, with all three teams that I care about getting off to 1-0 starts.
Overall, it was a pretty awesome weekend.
To make things even better, Kansas City (Detroit's week 2 opponent) got shellacked in their opener, and also lost one of their best players, Eric Berry, who would have been covering Calvin Johnson. I'm sad for Berry, a budding star from the 2010 draft, but I'm happy in regards to the week 2 matchup.
Let's quickly dissect each game, and how I managed to go 6-9 against the spread.
Packers 42, Saints 34
The opener went almost exactly as I predicted, but with a few unexpected special teams touchdowns. These are two of the best teams in the NFL, period. It's a shame somebody had to lose. The key story is Colston's broken shoulder; time to pick up Meachem and Henderson off waivers.
Lions 27, Bucs 20
I called Lions 27-13, so if the Bucs didn't get that TD with 1:30 left I would have nailed it exactly. This game was played out almost exactly how I described it.
The key was Matthew Stafford, who is making it difficult for me to continue criticizing him. He made some errant throws, particularly the pick-six, but his overall play was at least a B+. He basically played up to his level of hype for the first time in his entire career. Consider this:
-This game was only the third time that Stafford has started a game and won that game without getting injured. The other two times were home games against the terrible Redskins. This was Stafford's first road victory, and first victory against a good team. That's a double awesome bonus if you ask me.
-This was Stafford's best statistical game with a 118 QB rating. He completed 72% of his passes for a 9.2 YPA. He had never reached either of those figures before in any game. Only one other time in his short career has Stafford eclipsed a 95 QB rating, and that was the famously stupid Cleveland game in which he threw two ugly picks.
-Tampa's defense actually played pretty well.
-I think this was the first Lions game in two full seasons where I did not see Matt Stafford wearing a backwards hat on the sideline. We are making huge strides of progress guys.
There was a lot to like about this game besides the play of the quarterback. Suh and Calvin looked like their typical sensational selves. Stephen Tulloch looked absolutely phenomenal, holding LeGarrate Blount to 15 rushing yards on 5 carries. Burleson and Pettigrew played well, the O-line did good enough, and the cornerbacks held their own. Second-year safety Amari Spievey had a great game with 7 tackles, and Chris Houston made a real nice interception.
But of course there were some areas for improvement. Let's start with the rushing game, which accrued 126 yards on 35 carries for a dismal 3.6 YPC. Take out Burleson's 20 yard end-around and it's a 3.1 YPC for Best and Harrison. That's atrocious. Granted, Tampa is pretty stout against the run, but when you run the ball 35 times you ought to gain a lot more than 126 yards. I liked Detroit's commitment to the run; we kept Freeman off the field and dominated time of possession by 13 minutes. I just wished Best were a little more elusive and made at least one big play. On 21 carries, his longest rush was 9 yards.
The other eyesore was the kickoff coverage team, which gave up a 78 yard runback to Sammie Stroughter. All preseason long Detroit was stuffing returners inside their own 15. Then Tampa takes the first kickoff all the way to the 21. Fortunately, Detroit's defense responded and held them to 3.
There's not much else to complain about. The Lions won a road game against a playoff-caliber team and we didn't lose any players to injury. This Sunday against KC is shaping up to be another nice matchup. I am growing a beard and not shaving until the Lions lose.
Bears 30, Falcons 12
Chalk this one up to Julius Peppers. He won this game for Chicago, with two sacks, a forced fumble that led to a TD, and constant pressure on Matt Ryan. Chicago continues to relish the "Nobody Believes in Us" role. And I will continue to not believe in them.
Bengals 27, Browns 17
Lot of surprises here. Cleveland was much worse than anticipated, especially Colt McCoy. Dalton was okay, but maybe the Browns defense was terrible. All that being said, the Browns were up by 4 when Dalton got hurt, and it was probably Bruce Gradkowski who ruining this game for me.
Bills 41, Chiefs 7
My Upset of the Week was brilliant; the Bills offense was a machine, the Chiefs were horrendous in every way, and Eric Berry was lost for the season. Buffalo's defense is to be reckoned with.
Eagles 31, Rams 13
This game was closer than the score looks, and Bradford's injury sparked the blowout. Steven Jackson is gone for at least a week; Cadillac is a no-brainer off waivers. Vick ran for 97 yards but didn't pass the ball very well.
Jaguars 16, Titans 14
You give Chris Johnson 9 carries, you're asking for a loss. If I had Kenny Britt (5 catches, 136 yards, 2 TDs), I'd trade him while his stock is high. No way he'll have another 80 yard TD anytime soon. The Jags stink, but won because Tennessee has no identity or gameplan.
Ravens 35, Steelers 7
Seven Pittsburgh turnovers, two INTs for Reed, near-perfect game for Flacco ... this could have been any more beautiful.
Texans 34, Colts 7
I called Texans 41-7. If Schaub doesn't throw a pick 10 yards from the endzone I nail this pick exactly. Kerry Collins couldn't have been much worse. All this talk about the Colts getting Andrew Luck next year is absurd; there are at least 5 other teams who will be picking ahead of them. And even if the Colts were #1, they'd take someone else. Texans look sick.
Cardinals 28, Panthers 21
I'm speechless. Did Cam Newton really throw for 422 yards? On the road? Granted, the Cardinals defense is AWFUL, but I'm still amazed. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they lost the game, and more importantly lost their best defensive player (MLB Jon Beason) for the rest of the year with an Achilles injury. Their defense is dead meat. This game hit the spread exactly, ARZ by 7.
Chargers 24, Vikings 17
My Survivor pick was in jeopardy, as the Chargers were slow out of the gate, unable to tackle Peterson, and trailing by 10 at halftime. McNabb only had 7 completions for a hilarious 39 yards, so it was easy for San Diego to mount the comeback. Vincent Jackson (2 catches, 31 yards) had what will be his worst game of the season.
49ers 33, Seahawks 17
Both teams are horrendous, but Seattle is worse. I called this game dead-on but lost the ATS pick because of two special teams scores in the last quarter.
Redskins 28, Giants 14
Is it time for me to start eating my words about Rex Grossman? Or do the Giants just have a GVSU secondary? I don't know, but Eli was TERRIBLE once again, and the Redskins D is much better than I expected. Looks like they won't be getting Andrew Luck after all.
Jets 27, Cowboys 24
If you listen to sports radio, you've heard all about Tony Romo. Somehow he was the dominant story of week one, even though he did nothing special. He played pretty good (B+) in the first three quarters, and made two dumb mistakes to lose the game in the 4th. Big deal. Jets are well-balanced and smart. Cowboys are flash but no substance. They suck in the secondary and the O-line, and we'll see lots of games like this from Romo.
Patriots 38, Dolphins 24
Good news: New England's offense is unstoppable. Bad news: their defense looked lousy against Chad Henne. This game was totally predictable but still awesomely fun to watch.
Raiders 23, Broncos 20
Oops. Guess I whiffed on the Lock of the Week. Poor Kyle Orton's home game turned into a road game, with all the fans rooting against him. Denver is a freaking mess. Tebow will be starting by week 4.
Overall, week one was a learning experience in a lot of ways. A few teams proved to be better than expected (Jacksonville, Washington) while others were worse (Chiefs, Colts). I'm not worried about the Steelers or Falcons yet, and not buying any of the hype about Chicago, Oakland or Cam Newton. At least not yet.
Overall I'd say my preseason assessments were dead-on accurate for about 22 teams, and that's a pretty decent start.
Tigers have won 12 in a row. Week two picks up soon.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Week One Picks
Saints @ Packers
THURSDAY NIGHT
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 4
Over the last eight years, defending Super Bowl champs are 8-0 in week one, with all of those games being played on Thursdays. This year, that could finally change. I've got the Packers going 14-2, but I've got the Saints winning it all ... so I am torn.
I see Green Bay getting off to an early lead, the crowd getting crazy, and the Saints comeback effort falling just short. Should be sloppier than expected, as the lockout ramifications are made evident. But both quarterbacks are elite, both offenses can score easily, and this will be one heck of a season opener.
It will be interesting to see who carries the ball for Green Bay; they've said Grant and Starks will split the carries 50/50, but I'll believe that when I see it. Also, will the Saints use rookie Mark Ingram much, or allow Pierre Thomas/Chris Ivory/Darren Sproles to handle the running back duties and give Ingram just a few touches? A lot of intrigue from a fantasy perspective.
Obviously Rodgers and Brees are must-starts, as are Jennings and Finley. I like Jimmy Graham to have a big game, maybe 8 or 9 catches and a score. The key storyline to this game will be how the Saints offensive line protects Brees; the tackles should have plenty of trouble with Clay Matthews and company.
I'm going with Green Bay and the over, 34-27.
Lions @ Bucs
Predicted Line: TB by 2
Actual Line: TB by 1
In honor of Tom Kowalski, I'll try to keep this as brief and impartial as I can.
I hate to say this, but I think Detroit might be the most overrated team in the NFL right now. That doesn't mean they aren't good or aren't capable of making the playoffs. It just means they are getting way too much hype for having accomplished nothing. On the other hand, Tampa is getting no hype, and went 10-6 last year in a brutal division.
The Lions near-flawless preseason gave the players tons of confidence and swagger, which is good. It also made them feel unbeatable, which is bad, especially on the road. When Tampa makes a big play (and they will), Detroit needs to respond on the field, not with stupid violence or tomfoolery, but with great execution of their gameplan. I love everything about Ndamukong Suh's vicious attitude, but I don't like when the rest of the defense initiates fights just because they want to be tough like Suh. That's what I saw this preseason.
The other aspect of overratedness is Stafford, who played a pristine preseason against some terrible defenses that weren't trying. Now it gets real. Tampa has a good secondary, they'll be doubling Calvin and forcing Stafford to think, and he hasn't shown an ability to make quick decisions yet in his career. I've no doubt he'll put up good yardage numbers and make a few good deep throws, but I'm more interested in his completion percentage this year, because that's how you sustain drives and move the chains. Pettigrew and Burleson are going to be key in this game.
I hate opening the year against Tampa, a talent-laden young team with a lot of continuity and confidence and a great young quarterback. But like Detroit, they have weaknesses that can be exposed.
The interior of the O-line is Tampa's only weakness on offense, particularly at center and right guard. This works perfectly for Detroit, as Suh will be unleashed, even against double-teams. Corey Williams and Cliff Avril will battle with LG Ted Larson and RT Jeremy Trueblood, and Detroit owns a slight edge in both matchups. VandenBosch will have plenty of trouble against Pro Bowl LT Donald Penn, but overall our D-line should dominate the line of scrimmage.
Josh Freeman is one of the best quarterbacks at avoiding the pass rush and buying time with his feet, but with Suh chasing him all day it might be his worst nightmare. It's up to Detroit's secondary to keep the receivers from breaking free. We could rack up 5 or 6 coverage sacks in this game if the corners do a great job.
Against LeGarrette Blount, Detroit should be fine. He's a two-down back who runs through the tackles, and with MLB Stephen Tulloch watching him all day, I feel good about our chances. We just have to avoid the one killer 70-yard run that Detroit typically allows. Hopefully the OLBs will be able to play the entire game in short coverage against slants and curls, keeping Freeman from checking down. This will work if Suh and Williams dominate their matchups, which they likely will.
Nick Fairley is doubtful for the opener. but frankly I'm okay with that. Corey Williams is a better player right now anyway.
Unless the Lions defense gives up huge plays, we should be able to hold Freeman to a minimal game and give our offense a chance to win. All the pressure for this game falls on Stafford, and surprisingly, I think he'll come through.
Not so much because Stafford is the great quarterback everyone thinks he is, but moreso because this matchup is favorable. With safety Tanard Jackson out with a suspension, it'll be Sean Jones who assists CB Aqib Talib with the double-coverage of Calvin Johnson. Despite the fact that Talib is a very talented corner and strong enough to jam Calvin at the line, he doesn't have the speed to chase Calvin on deep routes, and will get burned at least once. Expect Calvin to have only 4 or 5 receptions, but to make them count for about 80 yards and a score. Of course he'll be the primary target in the red zone too, so he might have a monster game.
Tampa's weakness on defense is the pass-rush, which is excellent news for Detroit. Jeff Backus will be just fine against rookie DE Adrian Clayborn, and might actually dominate that matchup. DT Gerald McCoy is stout against the run and will manhandle Raiola and Peterman, but Detroit isn't looking to run much through the tackles anyway. Jahvid Best will do most of his work on stretch plays and counters, and of course screen passes. We'll probably look to plow through the middle a bit on short-yardage situations, but not much on first and 10.
I'm not sure if it'll be Harrison or Morris or newcomer Keiland Williams who handles the short-yardage stuff. Probably a combination of all three. Each guy should get 3-4 carries, and Best will have 15 carries and 5 catches. Detroit's running game will be mostly a nonfactor in this game, as it should be all season.
As I said earlier, the key for Stafford will be accuracy and decision-making. If he isn't under pressure from the ends, and I don't think he will be, he just needs to make good passes and avoid interceptions. He can't put the defense in bad situations by throwing picks; this is a game where it's better to punt than to try to squeeze a pass into triple coverage.
Despite the fact that the Lions are overrated and Tampa is underrated, I still have the Lions winning outright, and thus against the spread. Detroit may not be the better team overall, but I like the way we match up with them, especially on the D-line. Lions 27, Tampa 13.
Falcons @ Bears
Predicted Line: CHI by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 3
I don't know what's more shocking, the fact that Chicago is a home underdog, or the fact that 81% of bettors are backing Atlanta. America is smarter than I thought!
These are two teams that I think will decline in 2011, but Atlanta is still far better than Chicago. Roddy White will be unguardable, and I think it'll be Harry Douglas, not Julio Jones, who steps up as the #2 WR. In fact, I don't think Jones will be Atlanta's most productive rookie in this game; RB Jacquizz Rodgers has been named the third-down back, and should get 3 or 4 catches in this game.
Atlanta won't be able to run whatsoever in this game, and Julius Peppers is going to destroy LT Sam Baker. But on the other side of the ball, Chicago will execute a typical Cutler/Martz mess: 40 passing attempts, 2 TDs, 3 turnovers, 5 sacks ...
I'm expecting an ugly, turnover-filled game, lots of sacks on both sides, and plenty of punts. But Atlanta has the superior offense and will make big plays when needed. I'm determined to pick against the Bears as much as possible this year. Falcons 24, Bears 14.
Bills @ Chiefs
Predicted Line: KC by 4 (Cassel is questionable)
Actual Line: KC by 5.5
It's starting to seem like Cassel will play, though still not 100%. If he's out, the line probably drops to KC by 3 with left-handed Tyler Palko under center.
I like this as my Upset of the Week. Everything stacks up well for the Bills.
For starters, KC is the league's most run-heavy team, and Buffalo specializes in run-stuffing defense. Jamaal Charles might break free for a big gain, but should be held in check most of the day. The Bills defense overall is vastly underrated, and should create a few turnovers against whichever lousy QB plays for the Chiefs.
It won't be spectacular for Buffalo's offense either, but I think we'll see the best game of CJ Spiller's career and another efficient effort from Fitzpatrick. Even with Cassel, it'll only take the Bills about 20points to win this one, and I think they can muster that.
Bills 20, Chiefs 16.
Colts @ Texans
Predicted Line: HOU by 7.5 (Manning is officially out)
Actual Line: HOU by 9
Holy crap. Is there any other player who could make a Vegas line swing by 10 points? The line was IND by 1 just two weeks ago.
People have been saying for years that Indy is a bottom-five team without their quarterback. Now it's up to Kerry Collins to prove them wrong. The 38-year old has only been with the Colts for about 2 weeks, and has pretty much lost any arm strength he used to have. He's never been particularly accurate. Plus, he'll have a crappy O-line in front of him trying to keep Mario Williams out of the backfield.
On the other side of the ball, Houston will have their way against the Colts, like they always do. The more I look at this game, the more I see a blowout, and a sign of things to come. The shift of power in the AFC South is upon us.
Texans 41, Colts 7.
Eagles @ Rams
Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5
Actual Line: PHI by 4.5
This is actually a tough matchup for Philly, pitting the Rams' strengths against the Eagles weaknesses, and vice versa.
Steve Spagnuolo is very familiar with Andy Reid's offense, and will be capable of harassing Vick and creating sacks and turnovers. I'm sure Vick manages a good fantasy day, but maybe not a real-life day. It would be wise for Reid to run the ball conservatively with McCoy and Ronnie Brown, but that's not his style.
The Eagles excel in pass coverage, with three Pro Bowl CBs on the roster. Unfortunately, the Rams don't really have a #1 receiver. Putting Nnamdi Asomugha on Mike Sims-Walker is like buying a pack of gum with a $50 dollar bill and not getting any change. Bradford is superb at reading defenses and making smart passes, thus I think he'll take advantage of mismatches with slow linebackers and complete passes to guys we've never heard of.
Steven Jackson should be able to run against the Eagles questionable linebackers and safeties, while the Rams try to keep Vick off the field by controlling the clock. Also, St. Louis doesn't want to get Bradford killed by the trio of excellent pass-rushers, so they'll try to keep him out of 3rd and longs by running the ball early and often. If the run gets stuffed, the Rams are dead, but I don't think it will get stuffed.
I like to bet on home underdogs, especially when the home team is good. Philly will need a few weeks to gel together and start playing as a team. They'll still get the win, but it will be extremely close. Eagles 24, Rams 23.
Steelers @ Ravens
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Acual Line: BAL by 2.5
No surprises here. These teams play each other twice a year plus once in the playoffs. It's always a deathmatch. The Steelers have won 6 of the last 8, but each game has been decided by 4 points or less except the 2010 playoff game in which the Ravens blew a double-digit lead and lost by 7. I think it's safe to say Baltimore is the better team on paper, while Pittsburgh is the better team on the field.
If the line were 3, I'd take Pittsburgh. But since it's less than a field goal, this is basically a straight-up pick, and I am leaning towards Baltimore for a few reasons:
-Pittsburgh lost the Super Bowl. Teams that lost the Super Bowl are typically bad in season-openers the next year. For example, Indy got steamrolled last year in their week 1 loss to Houston.
-Baltimore outplayed the Steelers in the AFC Championship but lost because of some crappy luck. They'll be out for vengeance.
-Pittsburgh had a terrible offseason in terms of dealing with the lockout; James Harrison said some evil things about the Commish, Hines Ward celebrated his Dancing with the Stars victory by driving drunk and getting arrested, and Rashard Mendenhall watched his reputation get decimated into a joke. I don't think they'll be entirely focused.
-Nobody can run on the Ravens, but especially not Mendenhall. In three games against them last year, he managed a YPC of about 2.7.
-The Steelers always struggle in pass protection, but currently 3 of their starting offensive linemen (all of whom will play) are nursing injuries, including Pro Bowl center Pouncey.
However, all that being said, this game is going to be a bloodbath and come down to a few key plays late in the game. I think Baltimore pulls it out 24-21.
Bengals @ Browns
Predicted Line: CLE by 5.5
Actual Line: CLE by 6.5
With 86% of the betting on Cleveland to win by a touchdown, it's clear that nobody has any faith in Andy Dalton's first career start. And why should they? His QB rating was about a 63 in the preseason, and he looked absolutely abysmal.
I'm jumping on the Hate Dalton bandwagon. This line should probably be higher. Cleveland is a complete team, only a WR away from being competitive. Cincy is in shambles. Their offense will be lucky to gain 200 yards. I would recommend picking up the Browns defense in any fantasy league where you don't feel good about your starting unit.
Cleveland 29, Cincinnati 10
Titans @ Jaguars
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: No Line. Garrard was just cut yesterday, so no line has been posted yet. I'll just assume it's TEN by 3.
These are two of the most dysfunctional teams right now, with a slight edge to Jacksonville who just cut their starting QB just 5 days before game 1. Now Luke McCown will start under center, which probably isn't a bad thing, but it's still bizarre.
The only winner in that situation is Blaine Gabbert, who is much closer to seeing the field. I'm also pretty glad I pegged the Jaguars for 3-13. They're obviously in a world of trouble.
Tennessee just signed their best player to a long-term deal, and not a moment too soon. Without CJ this might have been a close game. With him, Tennessee will control the clock, Hasselbeck won't be asked to do much at all, and the Titans crappy defense will look respectable against McCown and the injured MJD. This is probably the week 1 game that I'm least interested in watching.
I'll say Titans win on the road, 20-6.
Seahawks @ 49ers
Predicted Line: SF by 5
Actual Line: SF by 5.5
Tavaris Jackson is kind of the Andy Dalton of the NFC. Nobody wants to go anywhere near him, and consequently this line is exaggeratedly high. San Francisco is terrible, their quarterback is abysmal, their defense is mostly terrible, and this is the first pro game of Jim Harbaugh’s coaching career. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a playoff win against the defending champion Saints.
And the Niners are favored by almost a touchdown?
Of course it doesn’t surprise me, because the national assumption is that Tavaris Jackson is as bad as bad can be. And while that’s partially true, he probably isn’t much worse than Alex Smith. Both QBs have been in the league for about 5 years, their completion percentages and YPAs are nearly identical (Tavaris is actually slightly better in both), and both have a career QB rating in the mid 70s. The only difference is that Smith has played in 18 more games and thrown 900 more passes while TJ has rushed for 100 more yards.
The other difference, of course, is that the Niners actually have weapons on offense. They’ve got a top 10 player at TE and RB, and a trio of underperforming receivers who were drafted in the top 10 (Braylon, Crabtree, Ginn). Seattle has one-year wonder Sidney Rice and former Raider Zach Miller. Both O-lines stink, both secondaries stink, and as mentioned, both quarterbacks really stink.
So that brings me back to the initial reaction … why does San Fran deserve to be 6-point favorites? Is it simply because they have stud linebacker Patrick Willis? Is it because Jim Harbaugh is charming and Pete Carroll is a crook? Is it because everyone in the country likes San Fran and dislikes Seattle? Or let’s be honest, is it just because Tavaris Jackson is black?
I don’t know, but I’ll take the points. San Fran wins a turnover-plagued monstrosity, 21-17.
Panthers @ Cardinals
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 7
Speaking of quarterbacks that nobody likes, 88% of betting is on Arizona to win by a touchdown. What a shock, nobody believes in Cam Newton.
I’m not rushing to pick up the Cardinals DST in this game, but I do have their kicker in most of my leagues. This should be high-scoring, as both defenses are completely awful. Cam Newton will be unspectacular, handing the ball off to DeAngelo at least 25 times and probably only throwing 12 or 15 passes. With their dominant offensive line, Carolina should keep the ball on the ground this entire season. Both DeAngelo and Beanie Wells are obvious fantasy plays on Sunday and both should rack up 100+ yards.
Although Arizona had 5 wins last year and Carolina had 2, the Panthers were probably the better team on paper, especially when you factor in injuries. I don’t get this spread. Is Kevin Kolb worthy of being a 7-point favorite already?
I guess I’ll take the Cardinals at home, but not a touchdown. How about 26-24.
Vikings @ Chargers
Predicted Line: SD by 7.5
Actual Line: SD by 8.5
Future MVP Phillip Rivers is going to get off to a monster start here, facing a barebones Vikings defense that was ravaged by free agency, injuries, and suspensions. If you give Rivers time in the pocket, you pay. Both Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates are bound for monster games. The fantasy rankers at ESPN have V-Jack 6th this week. I have him 2nd, behind only Andre. Gates is easily the #1 tight end, and might have 390 receiving yards.
With the Chargers leading by 28 at halftime, this might be a good game for Ryan Matthews to get going. The Williams Wall is gone (one in free agency, one suspended), so there should be plenty of holes. That is, unless Norv Turner dials up the Belichickian run-up-the-score gameplan and the Chargers win by 60.
I wouldn’t bench Peterson under any circumstances, but don’t expect too much. McNabb won’t do anything except scowl on the sideline. This will be ugly. Chargers win big, 42-13.
Giants @ Redskins
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG 3
While the Lions dominated the preseason like no other, Washington may have been the second best team in the games that didn’t count. Rex Grossman looked pristine, going 34 for 53 for 407 yards. If Rexy maintains a 7.6 YPA and 64% completion percentage all season, I’ll legally change my daughter’s name to Rex Grossman Morgan. Really.
No, all Rex did was beat up some scrubs trying to make the 53-man roster, and now people are predicting a turnaround season for him. A lot of folks are also hyping up Tim Hightower and the vaunted “Mike Shanahan Zone-Blocking Scheme!” but it’s not 1998 anymore. If there’s anything the Giants are good at, it’s stuffing the run and getting after the passer. Rex and his offense are going to be under duress all game, and despite all the injuries in New York’s back 7, Grossman lacks the accuracy to take advantage. Washington’s not going to score much at all this entire year. They just don't have any playmakers.
While Rex looked sparkling in the preseason, Eli Manning looked horrendous. It was bad timing for him to compare himself to Tom Brady, that’s for sure. But against the sorry Redskins defense, Eli will get the job done. It might not be pretty, but it’ll be enough.
Giants 24, Redskins 13.
Cowboys @ Jets
Sunday Night
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 4
Oh man. Why don’t Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez just have a whitest-teeth competition instead? Or they could wear backwards hats and see who can look more carefree on the sidelines. This is possibly going to be the most annoying game of all time.
Truth is, both teams struggle in pass protection and both QBs have a lot to prove. Revis will eliminate Miles Austin (I am benching him for Sidney Rice in the Morgan Matrix league), but Dez and Witten should have big games. Whichever team runs the ball better will probably win, and the Jets have a much better O-line and much better linebackers.
I’ll say New York 26-20.
Patriots @ Dolphins
Monday Night
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5
Actual Line: NE by 7
When you’ve got a home underdog giving 7 points and still 85% of the public is betting on New England … that means the line is too low. Either that, or Vegas is going to make a ton of money if Miami keeps this close. More people are betting on this game than any other game, by far.
This line should probably be NE by 12; even then I would have to take the Patriots. There’s just no reason to believe this won’t be a blowout.
Pats 35-6. Dolphins fans chant "We Want Luck" in the second half.
Though the outcome of the game won’t be interesting, some of the play on the field will be. I’m riveted to watch Haynesworth, Ochocinco, Andre Carter, Brian Waters, and all of Belichick’s new toys, not to mention how Brady makes use of his 2-TE sets and 2 rookie running backs. My hunch is that Ocho gets shut down by Vontae Davis and tight end Aaron Hernandez has 10 catches for 150 yards. Glad I own Brady in several leagues.
Raiders @ Broncos
Monday Night
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3
Before we get to the pick, how about a bonus question: how many times will ESPN show Tim Tebow on the sidelines from kickoff to 0:00. I will set the over/under at 16.5.
And the results are in. 97% of the public is betting the over.
As I've said a few times already, nobody is realizing how bad the Raiders will be without Nnamdi. I don't know if they'll even try. Why would they? Denver absolutely crushes them, 52-6, and Knowshon Moreno has 200 total yards and 4 TDs. That's my idiotic prediction of the week.
So to recap, I've got the Lions winning and the Steelers losing, and if that's not wishful thinking I don't know what is. My Upset of the Week is Bills over Chiefs, and the Lock of the Week is Denver -3 against Oakland.
I'm also going to start doing a Survivor pick each week, where I pick one team to win straight-up. The rules are you can't use any team more than once. This week I'm taking the Chargers. I probably should save them, but I don't want to screw up week 1.
That's all I got. GO LIONS!!
PS - I don't think comments work anymore on this site. I don't know what's going on. This site kind of sucks, maybe I should start using a different site?
THURSDAY NIGHT
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 4
Over the last eight years, defending Super Bowl champs are 8-0 in week one, with all of those games being played on Thursdays. This year, that could finally change. I've got the Packers going 14-2, but I've got the Saints winning it all ... so I am torn.
I see Green Bay getting off to an early lead, the crowd getting crazy, and the Saints comeback effort falling just short. Should be sloppier than expected, as the lockout ramifications are made evident. But both quarterbacks are elite, both offenses can score easily, and this will be one heck of a season opener.
It will be interesting to see who carries the ball for Green Bay; they've said Grant and Starks will split the carries 50/50, but I'll believe that when I see it. Also, will the Saints use rookie Mark Ingram much, or allow Pierre Thomas/Chris Ivory/Darren Sproles to handle the running back duties and give Ingram just a few touches? A lot of intrigue from a fantasy perspective.
Obviously Rodgers and Brees are must-starts, as are Jennings and Finley. I like Jimmy Graham to have a big game, maybe 8 or 9 catches and a score. The key storyline to this game will be how the Saints offensive line protects Brees; the tackles should have plenty of trouble with Clay Matthews and company.
I'm going with Green Bay and the over, 34-27.
Lions @ Bucs
Predicted Line: TB by 2
Actual Line: TB by 1
In honor of Tom Kowalski, I'll try to keep this as brief and impartial as I can.
I hate to say this, but I think Detroit might be the most overrated team in the NFL right now. That doesn't mean they aren't good or aren't capable of making the playoffs. It just means they are getting way too much hype for having accomplished nothing. On the other hand, Tampa is getting no hype, and went 10-6 last year in a brutal division.
The Lions near-flawless preseason gave the players tons of confidence and swagger, which is good. It also made them feel unbeatable, which is bad, especially on the road. When Tampa makes a big play (and they will), Detroit needs to respond on the field, not with stupid violence or tomfoolery, but with great execution of their gameplan. I love everything about Ndamukong Suh's vicious attitude, but I don't like when the rest of the defense initiates fights just because they want to be tough like Suh. That's what I saw this preseason.
The other aspect of overratedness is Stafford, who played a pristine preseason against some terrible defenses that weren't trying. Now it gets real. Tampa has a good secondary, they'll be doubling Calvin and forcing Stafford to think, and he hasn't shown an ability to make quick decisions yet in his career. I've no doubt he'll put up good yardage numbers and make a few good deep throws, but I'm more interested in his completion percentage this year, because that's how you sustain drives and move the chains. Pettigrew and Burleson are going to be key in this game.
I hate opening the year against Tampa, a talent-laden young team with a lot of continuity and confidence and a great young quarterback. But like Detroit, they have weaknesses that can be exposed.
The interior of the O-line is Tampa's only weakness on offense, particularly at center and right guard. This works perfectly for Detroit, as Suh will be unleashed, even against double-teams. Corey Williams and Cliff Avril will battle with LG Ted Larson and RT Jeremy Trueblood, and Detroit owns a slight edge in both matchups. VandenBosch will have plenty of trouble against Pro Bowl LT Donald Penn, but overall our D-line should dominate the line of scrimmage.
Josh Freeman is one of the best quarterbacks at avoiding the pass rush and buying time with his feet, but with Suh chasing him all day it might be his worst nightmare. It's up to Detroit's secondary to keep the receivers from breaking free. We could rack up 5 or 6 coverage sacks in this game if the corners do a great job.
Against LeGarrette Blount, Detroit should be fine. He's a two-down back who runs through the tackles, and with MLB Stephen Tulloch watching him all day, I feel good about our chances. We just have to avoid the one killer 70-yard run that Detroit typically allows. Hopefully the OLBs will be able to play the entire game in short coverage against slants and curls, keeping Freeman from checking down. This will work if Suh and Williams dominate their matchups, which they likely will.
Nick Fairley is doubtful for the opener. but frankly I'm okay with that. Corey Williams is a better player right now anyway.
Unless the Lions defense gives up huge plays, we should be able to hold Freeman to a minimal game and give our offense a chance to win. All the pressure for this game falls on Stafford, and surprisingly, I think he'll come through.
Not so much because Stafford is the great quarterback everyone thinks he is, but moreso because this matchup is favorable. With safety Tanard Jackson out with a suspension, it'll be Sean Jones who assists CB Aqib Talib with the double-coverage of Calvin Johnson. Despite the fact that Talib is a very talented corner and strong enough to jam Calvin at the line, he doesn't have the speed to chase Calvin on deep routes, and will get burned at least once. Expect Calvin to have only 4 or 5 receptions, but to make them count for about 80 yards and a score. Of course he'll be the primary target in the red zone too, so he might have a monster game.
Tampa's weakness on defense is the pass-rush, which is excellent news for Detroit. Jeff Backus will be just fine against rookie DE Adrian Clayborn, and might actually dominate that matchup. DT Gerald McCoy is stout against the run and will manhandle Raiola and Peterman, but Detroit isn't looking to run much through the tackles anyway. Jahvid Best will do most of his work on stretch plays and counters, and of course screen passes. We'll probably look to plow through the middle a bit on short-yardage situations, but not much on first and 10.
I'm not sure if it'll be Harrison or Morris or newcomer Keiland Williams who handles the short-yardage stuff. Probably a combination of all three. Each guy should get 3-4 carries, and Best will have 15 carries and 5 catches. Detroit's running game will be mostly a nonfactor in this game, as it should be all season.
As I said earlier, the key for Stafford will be accuracy and decision-making. If he isn't under pressure from the ends, and I don't think he will be, he just needs to make good passes and avoid interceptions. He can't put the defense in bad situations by throwing picks; this is a game where it's better to punt than to try to squeeze a pass into triple coverage.
Despite the fact that the Lions are overrated and Tampa is underrated, I still have the Lions winning outright, and thus against the spread. Detroit may not be the better team overall, but I like the way we match up with them, especially on the D-line. Lions 27, Tampa 13.
Falcons @ Bears
Predicted Line: CHI by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 3
I don't know what's more shocking, the fact that Chicago is a home underdog, or the fact that 81% of bettors are backing Atlanta. America is smarter than I thought!
These are two teams that I think will decline in 2011, but Atlanta is still far better than Chicago. Roddy White will be unguardable, and I think it'll be Harry Douglas, not Julio Jones, who steps up as the #2 WR. In fact, I don't think Jones will be Atlanta's most productive rookie in this game; RB Jacquizz Rodgers has been named the third-down back, and should get 3 or 4 catches in this game.
Atlanta won't be able to run whatsoever in this game, and Julius Peppers is going to destroy LT Sam Baker. But on the other side of the ball, Chicago will execute a typical Cutler/Martz mess: 40 passing attempts, 2 TDs, 3 turnovers, 5 sacks ...
I'm expecting an ugly, turnover-filled game, lots of sacks on both sides, and plenty of punts. But Atlanta has the superior offense and will make big plays when needed. I'm determined to pick against the Bears as much as possible this year. Falcons 24, Bears 14.
Bills @ Chiefs
Predicted Line: KC by 4 (Cassel is questionable)
Actual Line: KC by 5.5
It's starting to seem like Cassel will play, though still not 100%. If he's out, the line probably drops to KC by 3 with left-handed Tyler Palko under center.
I like this as my Upset of the Week. Everything stacks up well for the Bills.
For starters, KC is the league's most run-heavy team, and Buffalo specializes in run-stuffing defense. Jamaal Charles might break free for a big gain, but should be held in check most of the day. The Bills defense overall is vastly underrated, and should create a few turnovers against whichever lousy QB plays for the Chiefs.
It won't be spectacular for Buffalo's offense either, but I think we'll see the best game of CJ Spiller's career and another efficient effort from Fitzpatrick. Even with Cassel, it'll only take the Bills about 20points to win this one, and I think they can muster that.
Bills 20, Chiefs 16.
Colts @ Texans
Predicted Line: HOU by 7.5 (Manning is officially out)
Actual Line: HOU by 9
Holy crap. Is there any other player who could make a Vegas line swing by 10 points? The line was IND by 1 just two weeks ago.
People have been saying for years that Indy is a bottom-five team without their quarterback. Now it's up to Kerry Collins to prove them wrong. The 38-year old has only been with the Colts for about 2 weeks, and has pretty much lost any arm strength he used to have. He's never been particularly accurate. Plus, he'll have a crappy O-line in front of him trying to keep Mario Williams out of the backfield.
On the other side of the ball, Houston will have their way against the Colts, like they always do. The more I look at this game, the more I see a blowout, and a sign of things to come. The shift of power in the AFC South is upon us.
Texans 41, Colts 7.
Eagles @ Rams
Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5
Actual Line: PHI by 4.5
This is actually a tough matchup for Philly, pitting the Rams' strengths against the Eagles weaknesses, and vice versa.
Steve Spagnuolo is very familiar with Andy Reid's offense, and will be capable of harassing Vick and creating sacks and turnovers. I'm sure Vick manages a good fantasy day, but maybe not a real-life day. It would be wise for Reid to run the ball conservatively with McCoy and Ronnie Brown, but that's not his style.
The Eagles excel in pass coverage, with three Pro Bowl CBs on the roster. Unfortunately, the Rams don't really have a #1 receiver. Putting Nnamdi Asomugha on Mike Sims-Walker is like buying a pack of gum with a $50 dollar bill and not getting any change. Bradford is superb at reading defenses and making smart passes, thus I think he'll take advantage of mismatches with slow linebackers and complete passes to guys we've never heard of.
Steven Jackson should be able to run against the Eagles questionable linebackers and safeties, while the Rams try to keep Vick off the field by controlling the clock. Also, St. Louis doesn't want to get Bradford killed by the trio of excellent pass-rushers, so they'll try to keep him out of 3rd and longs by running the ball early and often. If the run gets stuffed, the Rams are dead, but I don't think it will get stuffed.
I like to bet on home underdogs, especially when the home team is good. Philly will need a few weeks to gel together and start playing as a team. They'll still get the win, but it will be extremely close. Eagles 24, Rams 23.
Steelers @ Ravens
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Acual Line: BAL by 2.5
No surprises here. These teams play each other twice a year plus once in the playoffs. It's always a deathmatch. The Steelers have won 6 of the last 8, but each game has been decided by 4 points or less except the 2010 playoff game in which the Ravens blew a double-digit lead and lost by 7. I think it's safe to say Baltimore is the better team on paper, while Pittsburgh is the better team on the field.
If the line were 3, I'd take Pittsburgh. But since it's less than a field goal, this is basically a straight-up pick, and I am leaning towards Baltimore for a few reasons:
-Pittsburgh lost the Super Bowl. Teams that lost the Super Bowl are typically bad in season-openers the next year. For example, Indy got steamrolled last year in their week 1 loss to Houston.
-Baltimore outplayed the Steelers in the AFC Championship but lost because of some crappy luck. They'll be out for vengeance.
-Pittsburgh had a terrible offseason in terms of dealing with the lockout; James Harrison said some evil things about the Commish, Hines Ward celebrated his Dancing with the Stars victory by driving drunk and getting arrested, and Rashard Mendenhall watched his reputation get decimated into a joke. I don't think they'll be entirely focused.
-Nobody can run on the Ravens, but especially not Mendenhall. In three games against them last year, he managed a YPC of about 2.7.
-The Steelers always struggle in pass protection, but currently 3 of their starting offensive linemen (all of whom will play) are nursing injuries, including Pro Bowl center Pouncey.
However, all that being said, this game is going to be a bloodbath and come down to a few key plays late in the game. I think Baltimore pulls it out 24-21.
Bengals @ Browns
Predicted Line: CLE by 5.5
Actual Line: CLE by 6.5
With 86% of the betting on Cleveland to win by a touchdown, it's clear that nobody has any faith in Andy Dalton's first career start. And why should they? His QB rating was about a 63 in the preseason, and he looked absolutely abysmal.
I'm jumping on the Hate Dalton bandwagon. This line should probably be higher. Cleveland is a complete team, only a WR away from being competitive. Cincy is in shambles. Their offense will be lucky to gain 200 yards. I would recommend picking up the Browns defense in any fantasy league where you don't feel good about your starting unit.
Cleveland 29, Cincinnati 10
Titans @ Jaguars
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: No Line. Garrard was just cut yesterday, so no line has been posted yet. I'll just assume it's TEN by 3.
These are two of the most dysfunctional teams right now, with a slight edge to Jacksonville who just cut their starting QB just 5 days before game 1. Now Luke McCown will start under center, which probably isn't a bad thing, but it's still bizarre.
The only winner in that situation is Blaine Gabbert, who is much closer to seeing the field. I'm also pretty glad I pegged the Jaguars for 3-13. They're obviously in a world of trouble.
Tennessee just signed their best player to a long-term deal, and not a moment too soon. Without CJ this might have been a close game. With him, Tennessee will control the clock, Hasselbeck won't be asked to do much at all, and the Titans crappy defense will look respectable against McCown and the injured MJD. This is probably the week 1 game that I'm least interested in watching.
I'll say Titans win on the road, 20-6.
Seahawks @ 49ers
Predicted Line: SF by 5
Actual Line: SF by 5.5
Tavaris Jackson is kind of the Andy Dalton of the NFC. Nobody wants to go anywhere near him, and consequently this line is exaggeratedly high. San Francisco is terrible, their quarterback is abysmal, their defense is mostly terrible, and this is the first pro game of Jim Harbaugh’s coaching career. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a playoff win against the defending champion Saints.
And the Niners are favored by almost a touchdown?
Of course it doesn’t surprise me, because the national assumption is that Tavaris Jackson is as bad as bad can be. And while that’s partially true, he probably isn’t much worse than Alex Smith. Both QBs have been in the league for about 5 years, their completion percentages and YPAs are nearly identical (Tavaris is actually slightly better in both), and both have a career QB rating in the mid 70s. The only difference is that Smith has played in 18 more games and thrown 900 more passes while TJ has rushed for 100 more yards.
The other difference, of course, is that the Niners actually have weapons on offense. They’ve got a top 10 player at TE and RB, and a trio of underperforming receivers who were drafted in the top 10 (Braylon, Crabtree, Ginn). Seattle has one-year wonder Sidney Rice and former Raider Zach Miller. Both O-lines stink, both secondaries stink, and as mentioned, both quarterbacks really stink.
So that brings me back to the initial reaction … why does San Fran deserve to be 6-point favorites? Is it simply because they have stud linebacker Patrick Willis? Is it because Jim Harbaugh is charming and Pete Carroll is a crook? Is it because everyone in the country likes San Fran and dislikes Seattle? Or let’s be honest, is it just because Tavaris Jackson is black?
I don’t know, but I’ll take the points. San Fran wins a turnover-plagued monstrosity, 21-17.
Panthers @ Cardinals
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 7
Speaking of quarterbacks that nobody likes, 88% of betting is on Arizona to win by a touchdown. What a shock, nobody believes in Cam Newton.
I’m not rushing to pick up the Cardinals DST in this game, but I do have their kicker in most of my leagues. This should be high-scoring, as both defenses are completely awful. Cam Newton will be unspectacular, handing the ball off to DeAngelo at least 25 times and probably only throwing 12 or 15 passes. With their dominant offensive line, Carolina should keep the ball on the ground this entire season. Both DeAngelo and Beanie Wells are obvious fantasy plays on Sunday and both should rack up 100+ yards.
Although Arizona had 5 wins last year and Carolina had 2, the Panthers were probably the better team on paper, especially when you factor in injuries. I don’t get this spread. Is Kevin Kolb worthy of being a 7-point favorite already?
I guess I’ll take the Cardinals at home, but not a touchdown. How about 26-24.
Vikings @ Chargers
Predicted Line: SD by 7.5
Actual Line: SD by 8.5
Future MVP Phillip Rivers is going to get off to a monster start here, facing a barebones Vikings defense that was ravaged by free agency, injuries, and suspensions. If you give Rivers time in the pocket, you pay. Both Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates are bound for monster games. The fantasy rankers at ESPN have V-Jack 6th this week. I have him 2nd, behind only Andre. Gates is easily the #1 tight end, and might have 390 receiving yards.
With the Chargers leading by 28 at halftime, this might be a good game for Ryan Matthews to get going. The Williams Wall is gone (one in free agency, one suspended), so there should be plenty of holes. That is, unless Norv Turner dials up the Belichickian run-up-the-score gameplan and the Chargers win by 60.
I wouldn’t bench Peterson under any circumstances, but don’t expect too much. McNabb won’t do anything except scowl on the sideline. This will be ugly. Chargers win big, 42-13.
Giants @ Redskins
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG 3
While the Lions dominated the preseason like no other, Washington may have been the second best team in the games that didn’t count. Rex Grossman looked pristine, going 34 for 53 for 407 yards. If Rexy maintains a 7.6 YPA and 64% completion percentage all season, I’ll legally change my daughter’s name to Rex Grossman Morgan. Really.
No, all Rex did was beat up some scrubs trying to make the 53-man roster, and now people are predicting a turnaround season for him. A lot of folks are also hyping up Tim Hightower and the vaunted “Mike Shanahan Zone-Blocking Scheme!” but it’s not 1998 anymore. If there’s anything the Giants are good at, it’s stuffing the run and getting after the passer. Rex and his offense are going to be under duress all game, and despite all the injuries in New York’s back 7, Grossman lacks the accuracy to take advantage. Washington’s not going to score much at all this entire year. They just don't have any playmakers.
While Rex looked sparkling in the preseason, Eli Manning looked horrendous. It was bad timing for him to compare himself to Tom Brady, that’s for sure. But against the sorry Redskins defense, Eli will get the job done. It might not be pretty, but it’ll be enough.
Giants 24, Redskins 13.
Cowboys @ Jets
Sunday Night
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 4
Oh man. Why don’t Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez just have a whitest-teeth competition instead? Or they could wear backwards hats and see who can look more carefree on the sidelines. This is possibly going to be the most annoying game of all time.
Truth is, both teams struggle in pass protection and both QBs have a lot to prove. Revis will eliminate Miles Austin (I am benching him for Sidney Rice in the Morgan Matrix league), but Dez and Witten should have big games. Whichever team runs the ball better will probably win, and the Jets have a much better O-line and much better linebackers.
I’ll say New York 26-20.
Patriots @ Dolphins
Monday Night
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5
Actual Line: NE by 7
When you’ve got a home underdog giving 7 points and still 85% of the public is betting on New England … that means the line is too low. Either that, or Vegas is going to make a ton of money if Miami keeps this close. More people are betting on this game than any other game, by far.
This line should probably be NE by 12; even then I would have to take the Patriots. There’s just no reason to believe this won’t be a blowout.
Pats 35-6. Dolphins fans chant "We Want Luck" in the second half.
Though the outcome of the game won’t be interesting, some of the play on the field will be. I’m riveted to watch Haynesworth, Ochocinco, Andre Carter, Brian Waters, and all of Belichick’s new toys, not to mention how Brady makes use of his 2-TE sets and 2 rookie running backs. My hunch is that Ocho gets shut down by Vontae Davis and tight end Aaron Hernandez has 10 catches for 150 yards. Glad I own Brady in several leagues.
Raiders @ Broncos
Monday Night
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3
Before we get to the pick, how about a bonus question: how many times will ESPN show Tim Tebow on the sidelines from kickoff to 0:00. I will set the over/under at 16.5.
And the results are in. 97% of the public is betting the over.
As I've said a few times already, nobody is realizing how bad the Raiders will be without Nnamdi. I don't know if they'll even try. Why would they? Denver absolutely crushes them, 52-6, and Knowshon Moreno has 200 total yards and 4 TDs. That's my idiotic prediction of the week.
So to recap, I've got the Lions winning and the Steelers losing, and if that's not wishful thinking I don't know what is. My Upset of the Week is Bills over Chiefs, and the Lock of the Week is Denver -3 against Oakland.
I'm also going to start doing a Survivor pick each week, where I pick one team to win straight-up. The rules are you can't use any team more than once. This week I'm taking the Chargers. I probably should save them, but I don't want to screw up week 1.
That's all I got. GO LIONS!!
PS - I don't think comments work anymore on this site. I don't know what's going on. This site kind of sucks, maybe I should start using a different site?
Over/Unders
The over/unders for how many games each team will win, according to Vegas, and my pick. I'll revisit these at the end of the year and see how I would have done.
Arizona: 6.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 2
Atlanta: 10.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 7
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 3
Buffalo Bills: 5.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6
Carolina Panthers: 4.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 5
Chicago Bears: 8.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 9
Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 2
Cleveland Browns: 6.5 OVER
Level of confidence: 5
Dallas Cowboys: 9; EVEN
Denver Broncos: 6; UNDER
Level of confidence: 4
Detroit Lions: 7.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 5
Green Bay Packers: 11.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 7
Miami Dolphins: 7.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 9
Minnesota Vikings: 7; OVER
Level of confidence: 2
New England Patriots: 11.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7
New Orleans Saints: 10; EVEN
New York Giants: 6.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 2
New York Jets: 10; EVEN
Oakland Raiders: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 8
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6
San Diego Chargers: 10; OVER
Level of confidence: 9
San Francisco 49ers: 7.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 3
Seattle Seahawks: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 5
St. Louis Rams: 7.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8; OVER
Level of confidence: 6
Tennessee Titans: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 5
Washington Redskins: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 8
*Note that the Colts and Chiefs aren't listed. That's because their QBs are unlikely to play week 1.
Arizona: 6.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 2
Atlanta: 10.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 7
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 3
Buffalo Bills: 5.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6
Carolina Panthers: 4.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 5
Chicago Bears: 8.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 9
Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 2
Cleveland Browns: 6.5 OVER
Level of confidence: 5
Dallas Cowboys: 9; EVEN
Denver Broncos: 6; UNDER
Level of confidence: 4
Detroit Lions: 7.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 5
Green Bay Packers: 11.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 7
Miami Dolphins: 7.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 9
Minnesota Vikings: 7; OVER
Level of confidence: 2
New England Patriots: 11.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7
New Orleans Saints: 10; EVEN
New York Giants: 6.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 2
New York Jets: 10; EVEN
Oakland Raiders: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 8
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6
San Diego Chargers: 10; OVER
Level of confidence: 9
San Francisco 49ers: 7.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 3
Seattle Seahawks: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 5
St. Louis Rams: 7.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8; OVER
Level of confidence: 6
Tennessee Titans: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 5
Washington Redskins: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 8
*Note that the Colts and Chiefs aren't listed. That's because their QBs are unlikely to play week 1.