NFL Power Rankings: 22-19

The bottom 10 teams and my 2012 prediction: 

32 Raiders                            2-14

31 Seahawks                       5-11

30 Jaguars                           4-12

29 Browns                           7-9

28 Dolphins                        5-11

27 Rams                                7-9

26 Vikings                            7-9

25 Redskins                          4-12

24 Colts                               6-10

23 Titans                              5-11

22.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers  

Last year:  4-12

I’m realizing that by the time I finish these power rankings, it’s going to be November, so I’m gonna rush through some of the boring ones. 

Tampa is hanging in the awkward balance between rebuilding and trying to stay competitive now. Josh Freeman’s regression in 2011 was sad, but bringing in All Pro guard Carl Nicks, receiver Vincent Jackson, and rookie RB Doug Martin (a perfect complement for Blount) gives Freeman a better chance to succeed.  This team still lacks playmakers and isn’t great on the offensive line, and I doubt new addition Dallas Clark has anything left in the tank. But V-Jack gives them a downfield weapon they lacked, and allows Mike Williams to be the #2 receiver, something that should be much more comfortable for him. Arrellious Benn also moves to the slot, which is a better fit.

The defense was absolutely horrid last year, allowing league-worst marks of 156 rushing yards and 31 points per game. A huge part of that can be accredited to a nagging bicep injury to stud DT Gerald McCoy; the Bucs were 3-3 with McCoy and 1-9 without him.

But the problems were mainly at linebacker and cornerback, where Tampa did virtually nothing to improve this season, except giving 5 years and $37 million to Eric Wright, in what was undoubtedly the worst contract of the offseason. They did make one great defensive acquisition by trading up to claim the safety everybody wanted, Mark Barron from Alabama, with the #9 pick.

Barron joins 37-year old Ronde Barber in the secondary, in what will be Barber’s first year at the safety position, after 208 consecutive starts at cornerback. The corners will be Wright and criminal Aqib Talib, who was supposed to be going to jail this summer for assault with a deadly weapon, until all charges were dropped in mid-June due to insufficient evidence, which probably means Talib paid his way out of jail or threatened to kill some dude's brother. Whatever. Despite being a despicable human being, Talib is a very talented CB, with 17 INTs in 4 years.

I really like new head coach Greg Schiano, who brings his no-nonsense persona to a team in need of an overhaul. He proved this by exiling twice-suspended Tanard Jackson and epic moron Kellen Winslow, removing two of the biggest locker room poisons from a team that completely quit last season during their ten game losing streak. Heck, how can you not be excited about hiring a coach who less than six months ago was victorious in the vaunted Pinstripe Bowl?

But the Bucs are in an unlucky position, with Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton standing in their way in the NFC South. Even if Freeman ameliorates considerably in his fourth season, he’ll still be the fourth best QB in this division. And with the NFC East also on the schedule, 8-8 is probably a best-case scenario. They do get the luxury of the AFC West, and bonus games against St. Louis and Minnesota, but I can’t see  them overcoming their insufficiencies on defense. They still have no pass rush, unless DaQuan Bowers explodes this year, which is a definite possibility.  

But it’s always risky when free agents join your team solely because you offered them the most money. I'm worried that VJack and Nicks won't stay healthy, and it might be related to their massive paychecks. With a new coach, a retooled roster, and a tough division, I’m thinking the Bucs wind up 6-10, losing their last 5 games after a 6-5 start. 

21. Arizona Cardinals

Last year – 8-8

After an unsurprising 1-6 start, the Cardinals roared to life over the last two months of the season, going 7-2 with wins against San Fran, Dallas and Philly, and a close loss at Baltimore. Four of those seven wins were in overtime, however, so let’s not get carried away. They didn’t blow anybody out. But they did learn to start winning, and most of it happened on defense.

Defensive coordinator Ray Horton was able to take an underachieving unit and improve them from 29th to 18th without really adding anybody. During the 1-6 stretch, the Cards allowed an average of 383 yards per game, which would have ranked them 29th. But during the 7-2 finish, they gave up a stingy 325 yards per game, good enough to have ranked in the top ten. 

The key was the linebacker position, where Daryl Washington was an under-the-radar star, and 4th round rookie Sam Acho had 7 sacks from the 4-3 OLB position, which is outstanding. The defensive line had a couple of borderline studs with DT Darnell Dockett (deserving Pro Bowler) and DE Calais Campbell (8 sacks, 3 blocked field goals). The secondary wasn’t great, ranking 17th against the pass, but Patrick Peterson is on his way towards being a stud, along with being the game’s best punt returner.  

So the defense is improving. Not sure the same can be said for the offense. 

Last year, the Cards' offensive line was considered the league’s worst by just about everybody. Strangely, they did nothing to improve it, other than extending the contract of lousy Levi Brown. It was quite shocking when the Cards took WR Michael Floyd (a potential diva) with the #13 pick instead of Riley Reiff.  I’m not complaining though.

The running game was decent at times last year, with Beanie Wells fighting through several injuries and managing a 4.3 YPC. Rookie Ryan Williams (2011 2nd rounder) missed the entire season with a ruptured tendon; he'll be back this year, and give Arizona a small, speedy back to complement the bruising Beanie.  

The biggest problem last year was at quarterback, where Kevin Kolb didn't even come close to living up to his 5-year, $63 million deal. In fact, it was John Skelton, the pride of Fordham College, who started in 6 of the Cards’ 8 victories.  Skelton didn't put up better numbers than Kolb, but he was Tebowesque in the 4th quarter, orchestrating six game-winning drives, and winning the hearts of Cardinals’ fans. 

Arizona made a play at Peyton Manning during the frenzy, but ultimately lost out and was forced to retain the crappy Kolb/Skelton duo. Coach Ken Whisenhunt claims it's an open competition, but usually the guy getting $63 million wins the job.  Kolb has more upside anyway, and would be the right choice, despite what the fans think. 

The Cardinals didn’t do a whole lot this offseason, other than drafting Floyd and pairing him with Larry Fitzgerald. Best case scenario: this is genius and gives them the best receiving tandem in the league.  Worst case: it's a total flop, Floyd is a diva and a jerk, and Fitz ends up demanding a trade in 2014. At this point, keeping Fitz happy is Arizona's biggest priority, so the Floyd pick had some merit, despite the immense risk. 

They didn’t have a second round pick because … oh yeah … they traded that pick to Philly. For Kevin Kolb. Oops.

Fortunately, they still play in the NFC West, so at least 4 games are highly winnable. That’s the good news. The bad news is, last year they didn’t face a single top five quarterback, and this year they face three, including Rodgers and Brady on the road. They also get the rest of the NFC North and AFC East (ouch) and Atlanta and Philly in their bonus games (double ouch). In other words, they’ve gotta somehow sweep their division to have a chance at going 8-8 again. Probably not going to happen as St. Louis has improved and San Fran is really good. They have enough talent on defense to manufacture a 5-11 season, with big improvements from Patrick Peterson. 

  

20. Kansas City Chiefs

Last year: 7-9

2011 couldn’t have started worse for the Chiefs. In losing their first two games by a combined 89-10, they also lost Eric Berry and Jamaal Charles, arguably their two best players, for the season. They also lost TE Tony Moeaki, a key piece of the offense. Giving up on the season by week 3 would have been defensible.

Impressively, they bounced back from a rough start and won 4 straight games, granted against inferior foes. Then they lost 4 straight, including a disgraceful 31-3 home loss against Miami, to fall to 4-7. Then they alternated wins and losses, including a bizarre week 15 upset of Green Bay, the Packers’ only regular season loss.

The Chiefs went 4-5 with Matt Cassel, then 1-3 with lefty Tyler Palko, with the only win coming against Caleb Hanie and the depleted Bears, so that shouldn't count. Then they picked up Kyle Orton (now with the Cowboys if you haven't heard) who finished the year with a 2-1 record, including the shocking win against GB.

 During the offseason, KC made a push for Peyton Manning, just like everybody else, but fell short. Now, quarterback remains the only position of major weakness for this roster. If Matt Cassel can “manage the game” and limit mistakes, this could be a very successful team.

The offensive line, which was already solid, got a huge boost when Texans RT Eric Winston signed for 4 years. He’s one of the league’s best run blockers. With Charles and Moeaki returning from injury, the running game could be dynamic; Peyton Hillis was brought in as the power complement to Charles, and since he didn't get the big contract he wanted, maybe he'll be super motivated. KC also brought in Kevin Boss from the Giants, one of the best run-blocking tight ends. 

The receivers are below average, but Dwayne Bowe is respectable, and Jonathan Baldwin has upside. Bowe is currently holding out, which is laughable considering he’s only had more than5 TDs once in his 5 year career. He’s way too inconsistent to warrant a huge deal, but KC will probably fold because they have little else at receiver, except for Steve Breaston and flashy Dexter McCluster. 

The defense is extremely solid, especially if Berry returns at 100% from his ACL injury. They lost stud CB Brandon Carr in free agency, but picked up CB Stanford Routt to replace him. It’s a downgrade, but better than doing nothing. Stud CB Brandon Flowers is still there, and along with Berry and Routt they comprise one of the league’s best secondaries.

Two of the linebackers are outstanding – OLB Tamba Hali (26 sacks the last 2 years) and ILB Derrick Johnson (first team All Pro last year). These two studs make the other linebackers, OLB Justin Houston and ILB Jovan Belcher, look better than they really are. The D line is a trio of early 1st round picks – DE Tyson Jackson (#3 pick in 2009), DE Glenn Doresy (#5 pick in 2008), and now nosetackle Dontari Poe (#11 pick in 2012).

Jackson and Dorsey have underperformed compared to where they were selected, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been busts, as many people assume. They’ve done nothing in the pass rush (a combined 6 sacks in 5 seasons), but both guys are solid against the run, and they open up space for Hali to get after the QB.  

Poe is intriguing; he was physically dominant at Memphis, and had an unbelievable Combine, but Memphis went 2-10 last year and only played against one ranked team. So Poe couldn’t be that good, right?

Overall, it’s probably at least a B+ defense, though I have my doubts about Routt being able to replace Carr. Routt is solid in creating turnovers and big plays, but he also led all CBs in penalties last year, and gave up 8 scores. He’s a risk-taker, and if opposing QBs hesitate to throw towards Flowers, which is likely, Routt could really suffer.

I’m also not that thrilled about three key players (Berry, Charles, Moeaki) all returning from ACL injuries.  

Nonetheless, a lot of people are pegging the Chiefs as dark-horse Super Bowl contenders, saying that they are just a QB away from having the best roster in football. As you can tell by the #20 ranking, I don’t agree. Saying “they would be a great team if they had a better QB” is like saying “I would be a millionaire if I had another $900,000 dollars.”

Cassel is the key to this team, and he’s kind of going unnoticed because of all the quality players on the roster. The additions of Winston, Boss and Hillis are going to allow KC to be a dominant run team, but defenses will be smart enough to put 8 or 9 in the box and force Cassel to throw. What this team desperately needs is a possession receiver. Baldwin is exciting and really tall, but not somebody who really moves the chains.

I understand that there’s a ton of talent on the roster, especially on defense. But because of Cassel, this just isn’t a team I would be afraid to play. They won’t score enough points to put teams away early, and if it’s close late, you can probably count on Cassel screwing up. Also, the schedule is really tough, with the AFC North and NFC South, not to mention two games apiece against Rivers and Peyton.  I’ll say 7-9 again.

19. San Diego Chargers

Last year: 8-8

Like a jackass, I predicted the Chargers would go 14-2 last year, and Rivers would win the MVP. Instead, his QB rating dropped from 102 to 88, and the Chargers lost 6 straight games in the middle of the season on their way to 8-8. From my estimation, no team underperformed more than San Diego in 2011. 

There were no excuses ... they faced an easy schedule ... their division was pitiful ... and they didn't have the injuries and holdouts they had in 2010, when four key offensive players (Gates, VJack, Matthews, and Marcus McNeil) combined to miss 26 games. In 2010, Rivers led the NFL in YPA throwing to Legedu Naanee and Seji Ajirotutu.  In 2011, with a full healthy offense, Rivers went into the tank. 

Not only did Rivers throw an uncharacteristic 20 picks, he also saw his YPA – which had led the league for three straight years at 8.39, 8.75, and 8.71 – drop to a paltry 7.95, barely cracking the top ten in a category he typically owns. You’ve got to wonder if Darren Sproles was actually the catalyst to the passing offense all along.

Now, with his best deep-threat fleeing to Tampa, and with Antonio Gates having the knees of a 60 year old, it’s up to overpaid free agents Robert Meachem (4 years, $26 million) and Eddie Royal (3 years, $13.5 million) to rescue Rivers’ career. Probably not going to happen.

If there’s a chance for the Bolts’ offense to remain one of the league’s best, it’ll be Ryan Matthews. The former #12 pick spent much of his rookie season injured, and took a back seat to Mike Tolbert at times. But in limited action, he has accumulated quality stats in 2 years (1,800 yards, 13 TDs, 72 catches, 4.7 YPC). Now, with Tolbert joining a crammed backfield in Carolina, Matthews has the job all to himself, and should be, if nothing else, a fantasy darling. 

The Chargers’ defense has long been overrated, ever since the obnoxious days of Shawn Merriman. Their #1 rank in yards allowed in 2010 was one of the flukiest things that ever happened, and a clear result of an insanely easy schedule. They proved this by ranking 16th last year, and 20th against the run.

The defense’s biggest issue was on third downs, giving up a 49.2% conversion rate, which not only ranked worst in the NFL, but was a full 2% worse than any other defense had allowed in over a decade. YIKES.  

The reason for the Bolts’ historically bad third-down defense was the cornerbacks, particularly Quintin Jammer. In the 66 times he was thrown at, QBs put up an average rating of 129.9, by far the highest mark allowed by any CB.  Not surprisingly, the lowest QB rating allowed belonged to Darrelle Revis with a stunning 45.6. One more fun fact: no CB allowed more receptions than Detroit’s Eric Wright (75 catches), whom you may remember as the guy Tampa gave 5 years and $37 million to.

Back to the Chargers.  While the corners were dreadful, the safeties, especially Eric Weddle, were solid, and linebackers Shaun Phillips and Takeo Spikes did a good job against the run. The primary problem was the pass rush. They ranked 24th in sacks with just 32, and only one player, Antwan Barnes, had more than 4. Nobody expects Barnes to get 11 sacks again, so they had to significantly upgrade the pass rush this offseason. They did that with the steal of the 2012 Draft - Melvin Ingram at pick 18.

Once again, this team will only go as far as Phillip Rivers will carry them, and with a weakened supporting cast, it’s tough to see him improving on his lackluster 2011. They have a tough schedule outside of their division (NFC South, AFC North, Jets, Titans), and now have to deal with Peyton Manning twice.  If they don’t make the playoffs, this will be Norv Turner’s last year. I see them going 9-7, but falling short in the AFC West.   

18. Chicago Bears ... 

  

NFL Power Rankings: 26-23

32. Oakland Raiders

31. Seattle Seahawks

30. Jacksonville Jaguars

29. Cleveland Browns

28. Miami Dolphins

27. St. Louis Rams

26. Minnesota Vikings

Last year:  3-13

Biggest Strength(s): There are many conflicting reports on Adrian Peterson’s ACL. Even Peterson himself isn’t sure if he’ll be ready for week one, saying “To be honest with you, I feel like it’s 50-50.”  But even if he’s playing at 70% health, I would still consider Peterson the strength of this team and the preeminent running back in the NFL.

The other strength is obviously Jared Allen. He’s just a beast, with 22 sacks last year and an average of 15 sacks per season over the last 5 years. He is great against the run, he’s a great team leader, and he defines “motor” for a defensive lineman. He may not be the biggest, strongest or fastest guy Jeff Backus will face this year, but he’s the craziest, scariest, and the best.

Other strengths include solid defensive players CB Antoine Winfield, DT Kevin Williams, and LBs Chad Greenway and Erin Henderson. They’ve also got solid playmakers on offense with Harvin and TE Kyle Rudolph, who would have had 15 TDs instead of 3 if he were a Patriot or Saint last year. They’ve also got a potential stud left tackle in rookie Matt Kalil; in fact, I’ll be shocked if Kalil isn’t the best left tackle in the NFC as soon as this year.

Biggest Weakness(es): It’s feast and famine all over the Vikings' roster. While they have studs at a number of positions, they also have complete duds at other spots, and one of those spots right now is the all-important quarterback position. I’m in the minority with my belief that Ponder will be a successful NFL quarterback at some point, but even I can’t say he’s any better than the 26th best QB in the league right now, with upside to crack the top 20 this year. While Ponder was a dismal 1-7 last year as the starting QB, it’s notable that 4 of those games were close, and 3 of them were played without AP.  Given a full season of AP and Kalil, I think Ponder should be able to throw 25 TDs and 3,000 yards – maybe an 82 QB rating.

Back to the weaknesses – aside from Kalil, it’s a very bad offensive line; aside from Winfield, it’s a terrible secondary; aside from Harvin, there are no capable receivers, and even Harvin is limited; aside from Allen, there’s no pass rush.  In other words, there’s not much depth of talent on the roster. When you can double team Harvin (and at 5’11”, he’s not going to beat many double teams), that leaves it up to Michael Jenkins or Devin Aromashadu to make a play.

2012 Offseason:  In response to their need for playmakers, Minnesota signed troublemaker WR Jerome Simpson for one-year and vastly overpaid TE John Carlson. $25 million for a backup tight end? Really?  Obviously, they are trying to replicate the two TE offense that New England pioneered in recent years. The Lions tried the same sort of thing with Scheffler last year, only they gave him $17 million less. It’s a decent idea; give Ponder some confidence with short passes, lean heavily on the running game, and try to control the clock. The only problem is that Ponder is not Tom Brady. But that’s just a small hitch.

After taking Kalil 4th overall (the best player in the draft other than Luck), the Vikes nabbed another great pick by trading up for safety Harrison Smith at #29. Smith should pan out brilliantly for a team desperately needing a playmaker in the secondary. They also got a potential steal with CB Josh Robinson in the 3rd round. But other than those 2 rookies, the Vikings didn’t do anything to improve defensively. A lot is resting on iffy incumbents, especially DE Brian Robinson and CB Chris Cook. 

2012 Outlook: The Vikings underachieved last year, in large part because Donovan McNabb chucked the ball at people's ankles for 6 miserable games. Remember when he threw for a whopping 39 yards in the season opener against the Chargers? Good times.

They didn’t win many more games with Ponder, but they played much better, and they were clearly building towards something. Adding Kalil should massively improve every facet of the offense, and Ponder is a smart, high-character guy who should improve in his second season.  But it all hinges on AP’s health. If he’s full strength, I’d move the Vikings up 5 or 6 spots and call them 8-8. If he were to miss the entire season, I’d consider them a 3 win team again.

2012 Schedule: The NFC North is tough, obviously, but the rest of their schedule is cake: the AFC South, NFC West, and the Bucs and Skins. That’s 8 highly winnable games at least. They also get the luxury of Green Bay resting starters in week 17, something the Lions did not take advantage of last year, when we lost to Matt Freaking Flynn and had to face Drew Brees in the first round instead of Eli. And yes, I realize the Giants won the Super Bowl, but I’m not an idiot, and I’d rather face Eli than Brees any day.  

2012 Prediction: Ponder gets to start out nice and easy, with a home game against Blaine Gabbert, and then traveling to Indy for Luck’s first home game. If the Vikes can start out 2-0, they’ll have a shot to win 7 or 8 games, and maybe even contend for the wildcard if AP is healthy. Plus they’ll probably upset the Lions at least once. I’m comfortable calling them a 7-9 team, but it will all hinge on AP’s health, as I’m sure I’ll say about a million more times.

25. Washington Redskins

Last year: 5-11

Biggest strength(s): Before 2011, I predicted that Mike Shanahan’s love affair with Rex Grossman would result in a 2-14 record and the #1 pick. It didn’t happen, largely because the defensive front-7 was much better than I thought. The move to the 3-4 defense looked idiotic at first, as Haynesworth and Andre Carter left town. But nosetackle Barry Cofield came over from the Giants and really anchored the D, along with Brian Orakpo (9 sacks) and rookie Ryan Kerrigan (7.5) sacks. Inside linebacker London Fletcher was also completely awesome, with 166 tackles at age 36. And former bust Adam Carriker revived his career and became a solid 3-4 DE.

Biggest weakness(es): The rest of the defense wasn’t so hot. Three big names in secondary (OJ Atogwe, LaRon Landry, DeAngelo Hall) took turns getting injured and playing terribly, and the lack of depth in the front 7 became evident late in the season when injuries set in. 

But the real weakness was the offense, beginning with Grossman, and extending to the RB and WR positions. Shanahan is obsessed with reliving his Denver legacy: using a different running back every week and somehow being successful. That moronic strategy hasn't work whatsoever in Shanny's two years in Washington, not surprisingly; the Skins have ranked 30th and 25th in rushing the last two seasons. Last year, it was  Roy Helu, Evan Royster, Ryan Torain and Tim Hightower suffering through Shanahan’s running back roulette. 

The receiver position was extremely weak, with Santana Moss and Jabbar Gafney. But the Skins drastically overpaid Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon to replace them, so now the receiver position is both weak and highly expensive. Also, the offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL, with former #4 pick Trent Williams looking more like a 4th round pick.

2012 Offseason: Of course, Robert Griffin III was drafted to replace Grossman and shepherd the Redskins’ offense for the next 15 years. It’s a foregone conclusion that Griffin will be the best football player of all time; the only question is whether or not he’ll break Drew Brees’s single-season passing record this year, or not until next year. All Griffin cost Washington was all their draft picks for the next 40 years. No big deal.

After drafting Griffin, the Skins didn’t pick again until the third round, when they took a guard from SMU. Their next pick was the most fatuous pick of the entire draft: Kirk Cousins in the 4th round. I hate when teams throw away draft picks when they have huge needs on the roster, like the Skins do at CB and WR and others. Cousins made no sense; Grossman and Beck are still there and are highly capable backups. 

In free agency, the Redskins were the typical Redskins, spending way too much money on big-name, injury-prone players. This included two receivers (Morgan and Garcon) who were just looking for maximum money, and secondary players Brandon Merriweather and Cedric Griffin, who are both coming off injuries. So aside from RG3, their offseason was pretty horrendous.

But you can’t disregard Griffin; he was the Redskins offseason. He is their rebuilding plan. And while 99% of people in the world of football believe he is a can’t-miss quarterback, I disagree.  All I see is Denard Robinson throwing bubble screens against bad defenses. No doubt, RG3 is shifty and agile and freakishly fast. But so is Denard, and nobody will even think about drafting Denard in the first round next year. And I realize that Griffin is a better passer than Denard, but I’m not convinced the disparity in their passing ability is monumental. I think RG3 will struggle with accuracy and timing in the NFL, and his speed won’t dominate the game as much as people think. Basically, I think he’s a high-character version of Michael Vick, but with a significantly weaker arm.

2012 Outlook: It’s cliché to say their season hinges on Griffin, but it’s true.  As he adjusts to the speed of the NFL and figures out how to manipulate a constantly collapsing pocket, the future of the Redskins will really be determined. Will he work hard, study film, and stick to what his coaches tell him? Or will he be content to be rich and lazy, like JaMarcus and the many QB busts before him? Will the pressure of being the supposed savior for a terrible team be too much for him? Will he rely on his legs too much and run away from every blitz he sees? Or will he be like a video game quarterback, effortlessly gliding across the field for 45 seconds before finding a man wide open in the end zone?  

Who knows. One thing is for sure: he’s one of the players I’m most excited to watch in 2012. It’s not every day you see a quarterback with 4.38 speed.

2012 Schedule: Being in the NFC East won’t be ideal for Griffin, because he’ll face three of the best pass rushers in the league (Ware, Pierre-Paul, Cole) two times apiece. He also gets to see Jared Allen and James Harrison. The NFC South and AFC North are tough divisions, but bonus games against Minnesota and St. Louis will help the Skins early in the schedule.

By the way, in case you’re wondering, I would rank the divisions this way:

1. NFC North (52)   Packers, Lions, Bears, Vikings

2. AFC North (53)   Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns

3. AFC East (56)   Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins

4. NFC East (60)   Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins

5. NFC South (61)   Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs

6. AFC West (79)   Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders

7. AFC South (83)   Texans, Titans, Colts, Jaguars

8. NFC West (84)   49ers, Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks 

The number in parentheses represents the sum of the teams’ rankings; for example the NFC West gets an 84 because San Fran is #5, Arizona is #21, St. Louis is #27, and Seattle is #31, and 5+21+27+31=84.  So as you can plainly see, there are 5 good divisions and 3 crap divisions. 

The teams who get to play against the NFC West, AFC South, and/or AFC West are at a big advantage this season. In case you’re wondering, the Lions play against both the NFC West and the AFC South. But we’ll get to all that later. 

2012 Prediction: Last year I got totally bamboozled by Cam Newton, who I was even more critical of than I am of Griffin. Newton was straight-up incredible. So there’s a chance that Griffin follows suit and throws for 400 yards in his first two games. But I highly doubt it. Instead, I think Washington will really struggle and end up 4-12, with lots of blowouts. 

24. Indianapolis Colts

Last year: 2-14

Biggest Strength(s): During their miserable 0-13 start to the season, the Colts really had no positions of strength. Veterans Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday were all exposed as mediocre players, something we all expected but could never verify until Peyton was gone. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were also exposed as exceptional pass rushers who are lousy against the run and of no use on a terrible team that is always trailing. The Colts D faced only 30 passing attempts per game (7th fewest), but a league-high 34 rushing attempts times per game. Without Manning, Freeney basically became nothing more than a defensive end who stinks against the run. 

So all that to say, the strengths of 2010 disappeared in 2011.

The only strength I can see heading into 2011 is the strength of potential. The potential of a new coach, a new era, and most of all, a new quarterback. Andrew Luck may be a rookie, but he’s the most NFL-ready rookie QB since Peyton, and maybe ever.

Biggest Weakness(es): Aside from the Kerry Collins, Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter trifecta that gave the Colts the 3rd worst quarterbacking in 2011, and a running game that scored only 8 TDs on the ground, and an offensive line that was somewhere between horrific and innocuous, the real weakness of this team was the defense, particularly against the run. Former second round pick DT Fili Moala from USC is considered one of the biggest busts of the 2009 draft.

Now, the Colts finally abandon Tony Dungy’s Tampa 2, and make the move to the increasingly popular 3-4 defense.  New coordinator Greg Manusky plans to move Moala to DE, while sliding Freeney and Mathis back to OLB, where they may be more effective. Another huge bust for the Colts has been 2010’s first round pick, DE Jerry Hughes, who has 1 sack in 24 games. He’ll come off the bench in the 3-4 behind Mathis. At nosetackle will be 5th round rookie Josh Chapman from Alabama, and former Lion Cory Redding will occupy the other DE spot.

Personnel-wise, it’s an atrocious defense. They’ll need at least 2 years of rebuilding around the 3-4, and during that time they’ll lose Freeney, who is unhappy about being in the last year of his contract. The only other mentionable players are ILB Pat Angerer and safety Antoine Bethea; both are solid. But they completely lack any talent at CB or DT, and will remain one of the worst defenses in the league for a while

2012 Offseason: With Jeff Saturday retiring, Dallas Clark moving to Tampa, washed-up Wayne and Mathis getting re-signed, and no significant additions being made to the defense, you’d think it was an abysmal offseason for Indy. But then again, they may have just had the best offseason in a decade by adding Andrew Luck. I didn’t love their 2nd and 3rd round picks (two tight ends) for a team with dire needs on defense, but at least they gave Luck some weapons to get acquainted with. Yet another team trying to emulate the Patriots’ two-tight-end concept. 

2012 Outlook: Well, it certainly can’t be as bad as 2011, when everything fell apart. Andrew Luck will start at QB from day 1, and while he won’t have a lot of help, it’ll be good for him to get smacked around a little bit. He’ll learn how to play from behind. He’ll learn a lot about the pass rush of the NFL. He’ll have plenty of chances to orchestrate comebacks. And he’ll probably carry the super undertalented Colts on his back to a respectable 6 or 7 wins, depending on how bad the defense is. 

2012 Schedule: Just like the Titans and Jags, Indy  faces the tough AFC East and NFC North this year. They actually get Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay in weeks 1, 2 and 4. There’s a brutal stretch in November where they face New England, Buffalo and Detroit consecutively. But scattered around those tough games, they get plenty of cupcakes: Jacksonville twice, Tennessee twice, Miami, KC, and Cleveland. Plus, they don’t have to deal with Houston until weeks 15 and 17, at which point half the Texans’ roster might be hurt again.

2012 Prediction: Luck probably starts out 2-1, with home games against the Vikings and Jags early. That’ll help build some confidence, and he might even be audacious enough to think he can beat teams like Green Bay and New England. But with the current state of the Colts’ defense, I can’t see anything like that happening. I’ll say they finish the year 6-10.

23. Tennessee Titans

Last year: 9-7

Biggest strength(s): Probably the offensive line, particularly on the ends. Tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart are perennially among the best tackles in the business. They play smart, physical, and at times dominant, allowing an undertalented offense to compete with anybody. Defensively, there aren’t really any strength to speak of, especially since the team’s best defensive player (Cortland Finnegan) signed with St. Louis this offseason. The Titans have a pretty special player at running back, but Chris Johnson’s decline from 2,006 yards and a 5.6 YPC to 1,047 yards and a 4.0 YPC was stunning and disheartening. CJ should serve as proof to GMs across the league why you don’t give big money to guys who seem like punks. Or to running backs. But especially, don’t give big money to punk running backs.

Biggest weakness(es): It would have to start with the defensive line. Only one player had more than 5 sacks for the Titans last year, and that was DT Karl Klug with 7. Hence, Tennessee ranked 31st overall in sacks, and that led to a lot of problems for the secondary, who allowed one of the worst completion percentages in the league. They did manage to rank 17th in total defense, but they also played 7 of their games against Luke McCown, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Delhomme, Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky, Kyle Orton, and Colt McCoy. They only faced 3 really good QBs all year (Schaub, Ben, Brees), and got waxed in all three games. Now, the entire defense is in trouble with the loss of Finnegan, who allowed 8.8 yards per reception, the lowest mark of any starting cornerback.

2012 Offseason: To shore up the pass rush, Tennessee slightly overpaid Kameron Wimbley from the Raiders. Not only must Wimbley overcome the temptation of laziness that comes with a $35 million contract, he also must move from 3-4 OLB to 4-3 DE, which means a lot more physicality. Wimbley averages a modest 7 sacks per year over the past five years, and doesn’t create turnovers, so it won’t be a monumental move. But it’s definitely an improvement.

The Titans also filled a hole at the guard position with 35-year old future Hall of Famer Steve Hutchinson. This was part of their desperation push to acquire Peyton Manning, which obviously fell short. While Hutch is passed his prime, he’s still one of the best guards ever, and will be a nice short-term fix at LG. 

There weren’t any other splashy moves in free agency, and the only notable draft pick was Baylor receiver Kendall Wright with the #20 pick. Wright seemed a bit overrated in my estimation, as he and RG3 took advantage of teams like Rice University and piled up hundreds of garbage time yards. But Wright gives Jake Locker and/or Matt Hasselbeck a young, fast receiver to work with, hopefully next to Kenny Britt who is recovering from an ACL injury.

2012 Outlook: Last year was supposed to be a rebuilding year with new coach Mike Munchak and rookie QB Jake Locker. Instead, the Titans overperformed and went 9-7, just missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker. That 9-7 record was in spite of Chris Johnson impersonating Tatum Bell all year. So in theory, they could win 10 or 11 games if CJ actually plays like himself.

But, losing Finnegan leaves a big hole in the secondary, and I doubt if former 6th round pick Jason McCourty is ready to be the #1 CB for a team with very little pass rush. There’s also a ton of pressure on Wimbley to be the star of this defense, but how often does a player leave the Raiders and then turn out to be reliable? Even if Wimbley offers 8 to 10 sacks, this will still be one of the worst defensive lines in football, and the linebackers aren’t good enough to pick up the slack.

But more than anything, this season will depend on the progression of Jake Locker, and on how soon Matt Hasselbeck is willing to bequeath the starting job. Locker played very well in limited action last season (99.4 rating in 5 games), but Hass helped the team win 9 games, so he won’t be flippantly benched. While adding Hutchinson and Wright helps, this offense still doesn’t have a ton of talent, unless of course CJ kicks back into gear.

2012 Schedule: It begins brutal, with Brady, Rivers, Stafford and Schaub in the first four weeks. Then they get the rest of the AFC East and NFC North (two very solid divisions) along with Pittsburgh. So if the Titans have any hope of winning 7 or 8 games, they’re going to have to win at least 5 in their division. Which won’t be impossible, but something tells me Andrew Luck won’t roll over and die. Also worth noting - they get the Packers week 16, which might be a rest-the-starters situation.

2012 Prediction: While their schedule is tough, they do get cake games against Jacksonville (x2), Miami and Minnesota. If they can win those, and take care of beatable teams like Chicago, Indy and the Jets, then all they need is 1 or 2 upsets and they could win 9 games again. That might even win them the division, as I expect Houston to regress a bit this year. But alas, I think growing pains are in store for Locker and Munchak, and I think this defense takes a big step back without Finnegan. They’ll go 4-4 in the winnable games, but just 1-7 in the more difficult games, for a 5-11 record.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ... 

We Interrupt These NFL Power Rankings ...

Six teams down, 26 to go. I need to take a quick break from my NFL power rankings to vent about the stupid, worthless, dysfunctional, idiotic Tigers, who are currently 6 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central.

Here's the bottom line: since a 9-3 start, the Tigers are 19-30. That's the worst record in the American League since April 18. The worst. Worse than Minnesota, Seattle and Oakland. Dead worst.

Now, injuries are partially to blame. Austin Jackson missed 21 games; Andy Dirks has missed 17. Both guys are hitting above .300.  Doug Fister has missed 5 starts, and the Tigers are 1-4 in those games. Alex Avila is on the 15-day DL right now, and relievers Marte, Dotel and Benoit have all dealt with minor injuries. So that counts for something.

But the team's disarray goes way beyond a few injuries. We haven't had any missed action by the 3 MVP candidates - Cabrera, Fielder, or Verlander - and all three have carried their weight and then some. Injuries aren't a good enough excuse.  Without the injuries, we should be 38-23, 4 games above the rest of the division and best in the AL.  With the injuries, maybe we should be only 1 or 2 games above Chicago.  But I don't care who's been hurt - there's no excuse for the team with the 5th highest payroll in Major League Baseball to have the 22nd best record.

We're lucky to be in the desolate AL Central; if we played in the AL East we'd be in dead last by 3 games.

Injuries have given Jimmy Leyland an excuse and a way to keep his job. But the Tigers 19-30 record over the past two months has been a concoction of terrible managing, erratic starting pitching, a hazardous bullpen, and extremely lazy, undisciplined, and downright stupid hitting.  You can either single out the players and say: "You know who needs to play better, ____," and then fill in that blank with Boesch, Avila, Peralta, Young, Santiago, Scherzer, Porcello, Valverde, Worth, Kelly, Coke, or pretty much any player outside of JV, Miggy and Prince, and the 3 key players who've been hurt.

OR, you can look at the top of the hierarchy, and ask "Why is it that every single player on the roster except the 3 superstars has underperformed?  Why is it that we lack such plate disciple, we swing at bad pitches, and let pitchers skim through innings on just 5 pitches?  Why is it that every single pitcher we face, even some dork I've never heard of with a 5.50 ERA, suddenly look like Cy Young contenders?  And why is it that our starting pitching never seems prepared, or confident, or poised, with the exception of JV?  And why is it that the bullpen feels like a game of freaking Yahtzee?  Just roll the dice randomly and see what happens.   Why the heck do crappy guys just off the bus from Toledo get to pitch in close games with runners on base, while solid relievers Below and Benoit just sit there, twiddling their thumbs during another loss.

It's not spring training anymore. 60 games into the season isn't the team to experiment with minor leaguers. It's no longer time to goof around with the lineup card, and try something different every day.   It took way too long to get rid of the three worst players in the MLB - Schlereth, Inge and Raburn.  It's taken too long to get rid of Delmon Young, who has 1 walk in his last 123 at-bats.  It's taken way too long to realize that Valverde should not be the closer, and last year was the flukiest thing that ever happened.  Everything takes too long, because our manager lost his mind somewhere around 5 or 10 years ago, and nobody wants to admit it.  Leyland himself even admitted a few weeks ago that he doesn't watch game film.  He doesn't study opposing pitchers or batters. He doesn't need to.  He's got 50 years of experience.  He goes on hunches.

How are those damn hunches working out?  6 games behind the White Sox, and the worst record in the AL since April 18. It's beyond ridiculous.  Jim Leyland needs to go, and so do his stooges, Lamont and McClendon.

Maybe with some discipline, leadership and accountability, the most talented team in the league might actually be able to win the worst division in baseball.

NFL Power Rankings - 32-27

This is the third segment in a triad of rankings as we gear up for the 2012 season.  First I ranked the quarterbacks.  Then the top 100 players overall. Now, the 32 teams, in reverse chronological order, starting with the lowly Oakland Raiders. 

32. Oakland Raiders

Last year: 8-8

Biggest Strength(s): Oakland has the best player in the NFL at two positions. Unfortunately, those positions both involve kicking the ball. Shane Lechler is a 9-time All Pro punter who booted the ball an NFL record 80 yards last year, and Sebastian Janikowski is a drunk Polish kicker who has made 66 kicks of 50+ yards, including an NFL record 63 yarder.  Outside of those two, the best players on Oakland are probably DT Richard Seymour who is 32 years old, and Darren McFadden, who has gotten injured in all four of his NFL seasons. They also have a pretty good safety in Tyvon Branch and a solid left tackle in Jared Veldheer (Forest Hills Northern grad!)

Biggest Weakness(es): Where to begin? Quarterback, offensive line, pass rush, secondary … if you had to pinpoint one primary weakness, it’s been drafting.  Would you believe that the last real 1st round pick Oakland made was way back in 2008? Since then, they took Darrius  Heyward-Bey with the #7 pick (one of the dumbest 1st round picks ever), Rolando McClain #8 (an amazing talent who unfortunately thought it would be real cool of him to almost shoot a guy and get sentenced to jail), and then nobody in 2011 and 2012 because they traded those picks to acquire Seymour and Carson Palmer.  You can’t go 4 straight years without a 1st round pick.  You just can’t. Especially not in exchange for Carson Palmer, one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league.  Oakland would have been just as good keeping Bruce Gradkowski.

Oh, one other thing: Oakland committed 283 penalties last year, by far the most in the league. In a distant second, with 247, is our Lions. League average was about 200; Indy had just 160.

2012 Offseason: The Raiders best CB last year was Stanford Routt, a borderline star, but they couldn’t afford to re-sign him.  He went to the Chiefs for three years and $20 million.  It was probably smart not to pay him that much, considering Oakland was already over the cap. But anytime you lose your best CB in two consecutive offseasons (remember Nnamdi in 2011) it’s tough.  Other than Routt, there wasn’t much action this offseason. They did bring in a new head coach – Dennis Allen, a 3-4 defense guy know n for the “bend but don’t break” philosophy. This is their 7th coach in 11 years, and none of the previous 6 had a winning record. In an effort to fill holes and address needs, the Raiders signed a bunch of mediocre linemen and cornerbacks, but most of them were role players or bench players last year on the Giants, 49ers, Texans, or some other good team. Whenever a player chooses money and willingly moves from a good team to a crap team, it’s a bad sign, and the Raiders have a roster full of such players.  Then, in the 2012 draft, the Raiders forfeited their first three picks in exchange for Seymour, Palmer and Terrelle Pryor, and didn’t pick until #95, where they took a guard from Utah, the eighth guard off the board. Eek.

2012 Outlook: As the NFL transitions into a full-blown passing league, the Raiders are headed in the opposite direction. Their new offensive coordinator, Greg Knapp, concentrates on ball control and field position. With the league’s best kicker and punter, that may actually be a smart move for Oakland. Last year, thanks to an easy schedule, some great kicking, a good amount of luck, and a temporarily healthy McFadden, the Raiders somehow won 8 games. But they won their 8 games by an average of 5.75 points and lost their 8 games by an average of 15 points, including five blowouts with Palmer as quarterback.  They actually went 4-2 without Palmer and 4-6 with him.  That’s as ominous as anything.

 

2012 Schedule: The division is still pretty weak, but Peyton Manning makes it more difficult. They also get the AFC North and NFC South, which should only equate to 1 or 2 wins. But their bonus games are two of the worst teams in the NFL: Miami and Jacksonville.

2012 Prediction: With a new coach, new offensive coordinator, a lousy quarterback, and no young players to build around, this won’t be a good team.  They might overachieve towards another 8-8 season, but I expect the complete opposite. If Palmer struggles right off the bat, backup Matt Leinart might take over.  New GM Reggie McKenzie inherited Palmer and his horrible contract ($28 million owed in 2013 and 2014), so he’ll probably try to avoid paying as much of that as possible. If Palmer stinks, he might be out of a job sooner than later. The problem is, Leinart has no upside, and once you put Pryor out there you’ve given up on the season. My prediction: Palmer starts out 1-4, gets benched with a sub-70 QB rating, Leinart goes 1-3, then Pryor gets a chance at the job, but goes 0-7 against the brutal part of the schedule. McKenzie gets his wish - the #1 pick in 2013, and USC’s Matt Barkley.

31. Seattle Seahawks

Last year: 7-9

Biggest Strength(s): The Hawks were actually decent on defense last year; granted, their schedule precluded them from facing any elite quarterbacks They don’t have a pass rush, but they were solid against the run and a few secondary players (namely the safeties, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor) emerged as young stars. Also, the running game was great at times, with Marshawn Lynch becoming possessed by the Tasmanian Devil during a 5-1 streak in which he ran for an average of 102 yards per game.

Biggest Weakness(es): The two most important things in today’s NFL - passing the ball, and rushing the passer. Seattle attempted to shore up these positions with free agent Matt Flynn and 1st rounder Bruce Irvin, but neither of those guys can be considered dependable until they prove something. 

2012 Offseason: As mentioned, Flynn was brought in to replace Tavaris Jackson, which seems like a certain upgrade on the surface. But Jackson really wasn’t that awful last year. When the best receiver is undrafted rookie Doug Baldwin, you can’t expect much.  Seattle did nothing to improve the receiving corps, and let’s be honest, Sidney Rice and Mike Williams are incumbent bums. (No, I don’t consider Kellen Winslow Jr. an improvement. Just an idiot.). Seattle also needs to replace their best linebacker, David Hawthorne, who signed with the Saints.

The best part of Seattle’s offseason was supposedly the re-signing of two key players: Lynch, and DT Red Bryant. In both cases, however, the Hawks overpaid. I’d be especially nervous about giving $18 million guaranteed to a proven slacker like Lynch.

2012 Outlook: Just like Oakland, Seattle overachieved last year and won 7 games thanks to an easy schedule and a good running game. But this year, their deficiencies in the passing game should catch up with them, and a mediocre secondary should be exposed by an absent pass rush. 

2012 Schedule: The Seahawks avoided Rodgers and Brady last year.  Not this year.  They also get appointments with Stafford, Romo and Newton. But other than that, it’s a pretty easy schedule, provided the NFC West stinks again.

2012 Prediction: Flynn may be 26 years old, but he’s only played significant time in 3 NFL games. He’s basically a rookie, joining a team with terrible receivers and a lousy offensive line. The one chance this team has of not being awful is the running game, and as I mentioned, Lynch’s contract could turn him into one of the league’s laziest players.  The defense should be average, although the absence of a pass rush is going to continue to be problematic unless Irvin turns out to be a brilliant pick. With an easy schedule though, and a historically great homefield advantage, I’ll give Seattle 5 wins.

30.   Jacksonville Jaguars

Last year: 5-11

Biggest Strength(s): Well, Maurice Jones-Drew won the rushing title, so I guess you’d have to start there.  He averages about 50 receptions per year over the last six seasons, and has a solid career YPC of 4.6. He’s also a great blocker, a good goal-line back, and amazingly durable (only 3 games missed his entire career, playing through many injuries). But now, with the rushing title under his belt, MJD is holding out for a payday. Foster and McCoy just got paid ($20 million guaranteed each), and Jones-Drew thinks he deserves a similar contract.  And he does. The problem, however, is that nobody wants to pay a running back. They are perceived as fragile, easily replaceable, and rapidly declining in importance. Jones-Drew doesn’t fit that description, but countless running backs have produced early in their careers and then plummeted when they reach the 2,000 carries plateau that MJD is approaching. So while MJD technically deserves to be paid, more so than fellow unhappy holdouts Ray Rice and Matt Forte, I would hate to give him the 5-years and $40 million he wants if I were the GM.  I’d much rather build a pass-first team and take my chances on a guy like Maurice Morris for one-tenth the money. Kind of like what the Saints, Packers, and Patriots are doing. But on the flip side, building a successful pass-first team doesn’t really work when you have Blaine Gabbert, so who knows. Maybe they should pay MJD. It might be their best chance at keeping the franchise in Jacksonville and not infuriating all the fans. I’m glad it’s not my decision to make.

The other strength of the Jags is their front 7 on defense. They have two studly linebackers in Daryl Smith and Paul Posluszny,  a good DT in Terrance Knighton, and a solid DE in Jeremy Mincey.  At times, the defense got shredded, but other times, like week 7 against Baltimore, it was completely dominant. 

Biggest Weakness(es): Blaine Gabbert. Also, the secondary isn’t very good, and neither is the O-line, but mostly, Blaine Gabbert.  He was beyond awful last year. It will be interesting to see how long the Jags stick with him, or if they try to salvage the season with Chad Henne. 

2012 Offseason: It was a pedestrian offseason for Jacksonville (signed Henne, re-signed Mincey, got a mediocre CB named Aaron Ross, viciously overpaid WR Laurent Robinson, hired a new coach named Mike Mularkey), until draft day when they traded up to #5 to pick Justin Blackmon, the top receiver on the board. This looked like a great move at the time – Blackmon doesn’t have physical-freak skills like AJ Green, but he has good hands, good route-running, better than average speed, and was supposedly a high character guy.  Then, early in June he got arrested in Oklahoma for drunk driving, which was pretty much the worst thing that could happen to the Jags. [Insert “I’d be drinking too if Gabbert was my quarterback” joke]

Probably the only good part about the offseason was watching Peyton Manning leave the AFC South. Between that and the Texans’ myriad of injuries and lost free agents, the division seems to be wide open. If Jacksonville has any chance at the playoffs, they better sneak in now before Andrew Luck seizes his claim on the division for the next decade.

2012 Outlook: Unfortunately, that’s just not going to happen with Gabbert and Henne as the only quarterbacks. Jacksonville is a classic example of a horrible offense and a pretty good defense; perennial bottom feeders like Buffalo, Miami, and Cleveland faced the same dilemma last season and all were under .500.  If you’re going to try to win without a quarterback, you need more than just a good defense. You need an unbelievably good defense. Jacksonville does not have that.

2012 Schedule: If Schaub doesn’t come back healthy and Luck doesn’t start the season well, it’s possible the Jags won’t face a good quarterback until week 8. That’s the good news. The bad news is they face the tough AFC East and NFC North, which could equate to 0-8. But their division is pretty weak and bonus games against Oakland and Cincinnati are winnable.

2012 Prediction: It all comes down to whether or not Gabbert will improve in his sophomore season. You can’t do much worse than a 65.4 QB rating and 50.8% completion percentage, but Blaine needs at least a 75 QB rating to keep Jacksonville somewhat competitive.  If Jones-Drew is signed (and I suspect he’ll be paid late in the summer when the GM becomes desperate, and I also suspect that he won’t be a lazy ass once he is paid) and if the defense stays healthy, and if Blackmon and Robinson pan out to give Gabbert some viable receivers, Jacksonville could win 6 or 7 games, maybe more if Gabbert really improves.

Arm strength isn’t the problem; neither is accuracy to be honest. Last year Gabbert was dreadful under pressure, and had no feel for the pocket. This is reflected by his 40.2% completion percentage when under pressure, and the fact that he led the league in fumbles despite ranking 22nd in pass attempts. But offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski believes that improved footwork will transform Gabbert’s game into something competent, especially when the pocket collapses. I would like to share in his optimism … but I don’t. Instead, I think Gabbert leads the Jags to a 4-12 year, but plays just promisingly enough to keep his job all year.

29. Cleveland Browns

Last year:  4-12

Biggest Strength(s): Two stud players, LT Joe Thomas and CB Joe Haden, anchor the Browns’ roster and prevent them from being the biggest dumpster fire in the NFL. Now, #3 overall pick Trent Richardson gives hope to the 29th ranked offense.  Elsewhere, they’ve got a very good linebacker in D’Qwell Jackson, who actually led the AFC in tackles; however, that was largely a result of a terrible defensive line that couldn’t tackle anyone. The rest of the linebackers – Scott Fujita, Chris Gocong – are pretty solid, and safety TJ Ward is a young stud in the making. The secondary actually ranked 2nd in passing yards allowed, but that was partly because the Browns fell way behind and allowed teams to just run all over them, and partly because they only faced 1 of the 10 best quarterbacks in 2011.

Biggest Weakness(es): With the 30th best run defense, 28th best run offense, 24th best passing offense, and a pretty much nonexistent pass rush, there are plenty of weaknesses to address.  The running game was probably solved with Richardson, but the rest of the weaknesses remain. Rookie QB Brandon Weeden will probably start from the get-go, replacing three-year veteran Colt McCoy who is actually 4 years younger than Weeden. With quite possibly the worst group of receivers in the history of the league, Weeden and/or McCoy will struggle. The defensive line is one of the league’s worst as well, and stopping the run will continue to be a problem.

2012 Offseason: Drafting Richardson was a no-brainer once the Browns determined that Ryan Tannehill was no good. Richardson will be one of the most complete and productive RBs right away and is the heavy favorite for Rookie of the Year. I’d even consider him a 2nd or 3rd round fantasy pick; he’ll never be coming off the field and will lead the team in receptions.  Drafting Weeden, on the contrary, was not expected. Nor was it very smart.  Not only is Weeden 29 years old,  he just wasn’t that great in college. The Browns needed to improve the receivers and pass rushers, and didn’t do either in the draft or in free agency. The offensive line is solid, and Richardson might keep them in games, but once again, the defense won’t be much help outside of Haden. 

2012 Outlook: In the third year of the Holmgren regime, the Browns seems to finally be rebuilding.  The recent eras of Anderson, Quinn, Delhomme, and McCoy have been forgettable to say the least. None of those QBs have been surrounded by any talent; in fact, Greg Little’s 61 receptions and 709 yards were both the highest marks by a Browns receiver since Braylon Edwards’s amazing 2007 season. Pretty sad when 709 receiving yards is considered a feat, because Calvin Johnson had that in his last four games.

Both offensively and defensively, the Browns are just undertalented. Holmgren and Tom Heckert have done a poor job putting this team together, plain and simple. Even the coaches – Pat Shurmur, Brad Childress, Dick Jauron – are underwhelming.  If Trent Richardson is as good as advertised, the Browns could make 2012 interesting. But if not, the Browns, who have only enjoyed two winning seasons since 1994, will be miserable once again. 

2012 Schedule: For the second straight year, the Browns get a cake schedule outside of their division. The regressing AFC West, the overrated NFC East, and the Colts and Bills. That could actually be 4 wins right there. Plus, they might catch Denver and/or Pittsburgh resting starters in weeks 16 and 17, and I expect Cincy to regress quite a bit this year in the AFC North.

2012 Prediction: Weeden and Richardson will be aided by a weak schedule, but still won’t be able to do much. Asking a couple of rookies to lead your offense is tough, especially with no receivers to stretch the field. Once again, the Browns will fall behind early and often, and won’t have the big-play offense to catch up. Plus their miserable run defense will allow other teams to control the clock. It’s a bad combination. Mike Holmgren has flat out proven to be a crappy team president. I see Cleveland going 2-6, then losing 3 straight, then winning 5 straight, two of which are against teams resting starters, for a bizarre 7-9 finish.

28. Miami Dolphins

Last year:  6-10

Biggest Strength(s): The defense. Led by OLB Cameron Wake, ILB Karlos Dansby and CB Vontae Davis, the Fins ranked 6th in scoring last year and were 3rd best against the run. A big part of that was 385-pound Paul Soliai, a Pro Bowler and one of the few remaining 3-4 nosetackles in the NFL. (Sidenote: a huge number of NFL players – almost exclusively defensive tackles –  are coming out of the Polynesian area. Guys with unpronounceable last names like Solaia, Peko, Pouha, Sopoaga, Ta’amu, Alualu, Ngata, Misi, Kemaoutu, and of course, Troy Polamalu.) Anyway…

Miami also has solid DEs in Randy Starks and Jared Odrick, and brought in Cardinals CB Richard Marshall to compete with incumbents Will Allen and Sean Smith. At OLB, they’re excited about 2010 draft pick Koa Misi, who will compete with Gary Guyton, who isn’t bad either. The safeties aren’t great since losing Yeremiah Bell in free agency, and Davis is the only stud in the secondary. But if Wake and Dansby stay healthy, this could be one of the best front 7s in all of football, and definitely a top 10 overall defense.  

Biggest Weakness(es): The offense is not just weak; it’s horrendous. Last year they ranked 22nd in yards, 20th in points, 26th in third-down conversions, and 3rd in sacks allowed. Then, they traded away their best receiver (an idiot with a long list of legal trouble, but still a good player) and drafted Ryan Tannehill, who as I documented a few months ago, is John Navarre 2.0.  Not a terrible player, but not even close to a franchise quarterback.

The offense was pitiful early in the season with Chad Henne and the 0-7 start, but picked up steam with Matt Moore (a shockingly decent 87.1 QB rating last year) late in the season. Reggie Bush had the best season of his career, rushing for over 1,000 yards and a wonderful 5.0 YPC. Moore made use of Brian Hartline, Anthony Fasano,  and even some guy named Charles Clay. So naturally, Miami bailed on him and chased every other quarterback this offseason … Manning, Flynn, Griffin, even Alex Smith … and after 4 failures, they opted to draft Tannehill with the #8 pick, when they could have drafted a legitimate stud CB, DE, WR, OT, or anything else. Instead of taking a sure thing, they rolled the dice, and probably threw away a top 1o pick. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

Now, the Dolphins are in serious contention for the worst offense in the league, and just like last year, the bad offense will offset the good defense and the Fins will fail to win half their games.

2012 Offseason: Aside from idiotically drafting Tannehill and trading Marshall for nothing, it was a pretty good offseason. They resigned Wake and Soliai to long-term deals, and brought in new head coach Joe Philbin, who coordinated the Packers’ unstoppable offense over the last 4 years. Then, just to prove that owner Stephen Ross is obsessed with attention, Miami signed the world’s biggest idiot, Chad Ochocinco, early in June. I’m going to do my best to ignore him until he goes away. Miami also signed with HBO to do the show Hard Knocks, which usually is indicative of a team full of morons.

2012 Outlook: When the offense sucks and the defense is great, eventually it gets too frustrating and the entire team falls apart. Guys like Wake and Dansby and Davis are going to get sick of working their butts off and losing by scores of 13-3. Tannehill is almost certainly going to be the opening day starter, and will almost certainly flop. Reggie Bush can’t possibly play 15 games again without getting hurt, and 2nd year RB Daniel Thomas looked slow and crappy last year. Also, the Fins rival Cleveland for the worst receiving crew of all time. Seriously, Brian Hartline is your #1 playmaker?

I forgot to mention, Miami does have a couple of studs on the offensive line, with LT Jake Long and center Mike Pouncey. But they also have below-average players at the other positions; maybe rookie Jonathan Martin from Stanford can fix that at right tackle and keep Tannehill from getting killed. But probably not. A good offensive line can’t make a crappy quarterback succeed. They can just buy him an extra couple seconds to be indecisive and make bad throws.

2012 Schedule: With the Bills improving this offseason, the six games against the AFC East are going to be tough. But then there’s the AFC South and NFC West, probably the two worst divisions in football. And bonus games with Oakland and Cincy. So overall, a very easy schedule.

2012 Prediction: I’m inclined to say 6 or 7 wins because of the great defense and easy slate of games. But then I think about Ryan Tannehill, and the 1-5 record he had in college against teams ranked in the top 25. If you can’t beat Missouri or Kansas State, how are you going to beat an NFL defense? Especially with receivers that just aren’t NFL caliber.

Fortunately for Tannehill, Miami’s schedule starts out easy and then progressively gets more difficult. He should be 2-4 at the bye, and keep the starting job. But then he’ll quickly fall to 2-8, and Philbin will have to fabricate some kind of injury to Tannehill so Matt Moore can finish the season and salvage a few wins, while not shattering Tannehill’s confidence. The schedule ends rough, but the Pats might rest the starters in week 17, so I’ll say Miami scraps out a 5-11 record.

27. St. Louis Rams

Last year:  2-14

Biggest Strength(s): The Rams were miserable last year, ranking near the bottom in every meaningful statistic. It’s tough to find a strength.  I guess you could go with Jeff Fisher, a guy with 142 coaching wins and almost 30 years in the NFL. Fisher brought with him Cortland Finnegan, a nasty cornerback who probably becomes the Rams’ best player. The Rams also picked up two future first round picks in the RG3 trade; if Washington stinks (and I think they will), St. Louis could be picking twice in the top 10 for the next two years.

Other strengths include DE Chris Long, who is proving to be a solid pass-rusher, and of course Steven Jackson, an aging beast of an RB who still has something left in the tank, as evidenced by him single-handedly beating the Saints last year with 191 yards and 2 TDs.

Biggest Weakness(es): With the league’s worst point differential (-214) and the 31st ranked offense, there is plenty of blame to go around. Certainly Sam Bradford’s ankle injury didn’t help, but even when he played he was rotten. The receivers were terrible, and so was the offensive line. The linebackers were bad, the secondary was bad and endured 13 injuries (not a typo), and even the special teams were way below average. But probably the worst aspect of their 2011 season was the run defense – allowing 152 rushing yards per game, 31st in the league. Of course, that had a lot to do with falling behind in the first 3 quarters and then getting run all over. In 7 of their loses, the Rams were trailing by 14, 19, 23, 24, 20, 19, and 14 going into the final quarter:.  That’s a good recipe to rank 31st in run defense.

2012 Offseason: To fix the middle of the defense, Fisher drafted LSU’s monster in the middle, Michael Brockers, a huge specimen who will fill the important run-stuffing DT role that is needed in a Fisher-esque wide-9 defense. The Rams also added Kendall Langford and Trevor  Laws, who both proved to be capable run-stoppers last year. Combined with Finnegan, DE Williams Hayes (who played for Fisher in Tennessee), and 2nd round pick CB Janoris Jenkins, it was a profitable offseason for a wretched defense that couldn’t do anything except occasionally rush the passer. Now, they might just be able to stop the run, which would allow DEs Long and Robert Quinn to have really solid seasons.

Offensively, the Rams lost WR Brandon Lloyd, who didn’t want to be there anyway, and they gained Scott Wells, a Pro Bowl center from Green Bay. They took a receiver in the 2nd round, Brian Quick, who I don’t know anything about other than he’s from Appalachian State and he’s not actually very quick.  The biggest change is the health of Bradford, who is supposedly 100%. Also slot receiver Danny Amendola should be healthy, and Steve Smith (the former Giant, not the Panther) joined the Rams, hoping to be at full health as well. That’s a lot of uncertainty, but at least it’s some semblance of a plan.     

2012 Outlook: The Rams are 15-65 over the last five years, an average of 3-13. My guess is that Fisher alone gives them 4 wins this year, even with this talent-depleted roster. If Bradford stays healthy for 16 games and develops a rapport with one of his receivers, and Steven Jackson stays healthy as well, and the defense works as good on the field as it does on paper, this might just explode into a shockingly good team. Like we saw with Cincy and Houston in recent years, sometimes adding a great cornerback does wonders for a bad defense. And like we saw with San Fran last year, sometimes a great coach can make an enormous change. But there are still major holes on the O-line and D-line, and the linebackers are still pretty lousy, so Jeff Fisher is being asked to do a lot with very little.

2012 Schedule: The Rams begin the year in Detroit, and after that they get five very winnable games, and could be 3-3 or 4-2 heading into 3 straight loses (NE, GB, @SF). After that they should have a good shot at winning 5 of their last 7 games, and could end up in the 7-9 to 9-7 range. Or, on the flipside, the Rams could start slow, and lose winnable games to WAS, CHI, SEA, and MIA. If they do that, they’re basically 1-9 before they know what happened. In other words, they gotta start out winning.

2012 Prediction: I’m taking the optimistic route with St. Louis. I like Bradford, I like Fisher, and I think they’ll win early. I’ll say 7-9, with one or two shocking wins against SF. They’ll be the trendy pick for 2013.

26. Minnesota Vikings

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Sorry for breaking this up.  Turns out I wrote a lot.  Maybe I can get this done by August.