Last week there were 7 teams that were favored by 4 points or more. Six of those teams won. Dare I say, the NFL is actually starting to make sense?
With favorites winning outright, and the Pats scoring 45 points, and the Steelers' defense dominating, and Jay Cutler absolutely sucking, it appears things finally are the way they were supposed to be all along. The Cardinals, Rams and Bengals have each lost 3 in a row to drop from the playoff picture, where they never should have been in the first place, while teams like the Packers and Broncos and Colts are climbing, as I thought they would. So all that to say, my 47/53 theory may no longer be true.
I went 7-7 ATS and 8-6 straight up, bringing me to 58-58-4 and 67-51.
Here are the week 9 picks:
Chiefs (1-6) @ Chargers (3-4)
Predicted Line: SD by 4
Actual Line: SD by 8
Here's an amazing stat:
The Chiefs have not had the lead once this season. In their only win, they kicked a field goal in OT. They haven't actually played a down with the lead in 7 games.
What's really amazing is that they have a better roster from top to bottom than half the teams they've played, including San Diego, who shellacked them in week 4. The problem has been a ton of turnovers, thanks mostly to Matt Cassel.
I haven't read anything about this game, don't even know who is playing QB for KC, but I like taking 8 points given how bad the Chargers are playing right now. Bolts 27-23.
Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 2.5
Actual Line: DEN by 4
Peyton Manning is rolling. The Bengals have lost 3 straight. But, Cincy is coming off a bye and is at home ... so should I take the points? Probably not. Broncos 34-27.
Ravens (5-2) @ Browns (2-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7
Actual Line: BAL by 4
Since getting Joe Haden back from suspension, the Browns defense has actually been really decent, giving up an average of just 15 points over the past three weeks. Baltimore, meanwhile, is coming off their worst defeat in many years, losing 43-13 to Houston. The Ravens' defense is banged up and missing some key players, but that won't matter against a Cleveland team that can't move the ball through the air. This line is way too low. Ravens 30-13.
Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 11
I can think of a lot of reasons to take the points ... Arizona's D could force a few turnovers and keep the score low, Peterson could run a punt back for a TD, Fitzgerald could get a garbage-time TD for the backdoor cover ... but then I think about Clay Matthews against that pitiful Cardinals O-line, and I've gotta take the Packers. 24-6.
Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)
Predicted Line: CHI by 4
Actual Line: CHI by 4
I just don't think the Titans have the guys on defense to stop Forte and Marshall, even despite Cutler's erratic throwing and affinity for 1st half turnovers. Seriously, has any QB ever played worse during a 6-1 start? Do you realize that he's not even a top 20 quarterback in any of the important stats: completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs, QB rating... but he is right near the top in INTs and sacks? It's insane that the Bears keep winning. I think they'll get this one too, 34-16. Another bad game for Chris Johnson.
Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 1
Hmm. Miami's defense is stuffing everybody who tries to run the ball, but Indy can't run the ball and they know it, so perhaps Andrew Luck will get his 5th win of the season by foregoing the run and throwing early and often. This is actually a huge game for the AFC Wildcard. I like Indy in a comeback, 26-20.
Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4
Actual Line: WAS by 3.5
Two really lousy defenses against two extremely athletic quarterbacks. We could see an NFL record for combined rushing yards by two QBs in one game. I want to take the points and say Redskins by 3, but I question whether the Panthers will have already quit on the season after four heartbreaking losses in a row, including last week's loss which was the most heartbreaking yet. Carolina was doing a lot of stupid Super Bowl talk back in July and now they probably feel like giving up. So I'll say Washington by 20.
Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)
Predicted Line: DET by 2
Actual Line: DET by 4
If there was ever a time for Detroit to actually build a lead early and keep it throughout the game, this is it. Jacksonville has no chance of stopping Calvin, and the Burleson injury is a blessing in disguise because it allows Titus and Broyles to actually play. Our defense can focus entirely on stopping MJD and let Gabbert throw. That guy is way too inaccurate to make us pay. This should be our first good game of the season. Lions 37-13.
Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 12
Actual Line: HOU by 10.5
I bet Mario Williams feels pretty stupid after this game. Texans 31-16.
Bucs (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 1
With two terrible secondaries, this should be a high-scoring, lots-of-big-plays-through-the-air type of game. I guess I'll take Tampa since they have the better QB.
Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 4.5
I'm taking the Vikings straight-up. I have gut feeling about Adrian Peterson this game.
Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 2.5
Actual Line: NYG by 3.5
Steelers by 6.
Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 6.5
Actual Line: ATL by 4.5
Falcons by 7.
Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 1
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
Eagles by 2.
Go Lions.
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Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Week 8 Picks
Last week:
8-3-2 ATS
10-3 straight up
Season:
51-51-4 ATS
59-45 straight up
Starting to turn things around. Here are the week 8 picks:
Bucs (2-4) @ Vikings (5-2)
Predicted Line: MIN by 6.5
Actual Line: MIN by 7
Another low-scoring Thursday game. I'll take the points, but say Vikes win again, 20-16.
Panthers (1-5) @ Bears (5-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 8
Actual Line: CHI by 9
It's going to take more than a 5-1 start for me to believe in Jay Cutler. Cam Newton is the far better quarterback, and yet he's a 9 point underdog. Yes, the Bears defense is fifty times better than the Panthers defense, and yes these teams have momentum going in opposite directions, but based solely on the talent level and competitiveness of the quarterbacks, I'll take those points. Bears 27-23.
Chargers (3-3) @ Browns (1-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 3
Actual Line: SD by 2.5
I think the Chargers will play like crap, despite coming off a bye. I think Norv Turner is too busy thinking about getting fired to adequately create a gameplan, and I think Rivers is officially past his prime, and I think Ryan Matthews was a terrible 1st round fantasy pick for me and will continue to be so throughout the entire season with his fumbles and lack of speed. Also, the Bolts defense is not very good at all, and Trent Richardson might run all over them, and Cleveland has a better homefield advantage than people think. Despite all that, I still think San Diego covers. That's how little confidence I have in Cleveland and Brandon Weeden. Bolts 16-13.
Seahawks (4-3) @ Lions (2-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 1.5
After watching the Tigers completely blow game 1 of the World Series thanks to Verlander's inexplicably unlucky game, I'm too depressed to even think about this game. If Seattle wins, the season is basically over. I would feel a lot better if Detroit were the underdog so they could play off their own self-loathing as they like to do. But I digress ...
The Lions' squad is full of obvious deficiencies, but we expected this going into the year. We knew the secondary would be awful and we knew the running game would struggle. Most of the players have done what we expected. Nonetheless, they are only a few plays away from being 4-2 or 5-1.
In my opinion, only two players have massively underperformed, and those players are Stafford and Suh. Both should be elite players at their positions, based on their draft position and how they've played the last 2 seasons. But both are liabilities. Suh generates more penalties than sacks, and more bad PR than good plays on the field. Even when he gets a sack, he has to bend the guy backwards over his knee and slam his head to the grass, which wasn't necessary and just reinforces the notion that Suh is a villain.
And Stafford continues to impersonate Joey Harrington with his complete lack of urgency on third downs, his inaccuracy on short passes, and his utter failure to recognize and navigate a pass rush. The offensive line is getting blamed by people who don't know anything about football. It's not Backus or Raiola's fault that Stafford can't step up in the pocket, move his feet, and deliver the ball quickly. Scouts always talk about quarterback's footwork. Peyton Manning is known for his footwork more than anything else. Have you ever watched Drew Brees play? What percent of plays does he physically step forward to evade the pass rush, and buy himself 2 seconds to throw? 90%? How many times has Stafford done that through 6 games? Once? Maybe twice?
Last season, Stafford was doing the little things that successful QBs do. Stepping up in the pocket, looking off the safety, buying time with his feet, and throwing "catchable" balls that weren't just accurate, but hit the receiver perfectly in the hands. This year, he's doing none of those things. It's unexplainable. Nothing has changed, other than adding Ryan Broyles and Riley Reiff and another year of offseason experience. The only possible explanations are:
1) He spent the offseason partying, drinking, and being a frat boy like Matt Leinart, instead of watching film and working out like any of the elite quarterbacks who actually try to earn their colossal contracts.
2) The Madden Curse is manifesting itself in Calvin's quarterback.
I'm leaning towards #1 as the reason why Stafford sucks this year. And unfortunately I don't think he will get much better as the year goes on. I think we've seen a big enough sample size to say that Stafford has declined. In 6 games, he's only had a QB rating above 80 one time. That's downright awful. It's his rookie year all over again.
This should be another game that comes down to the final 30 seconds or so, as all Detroit contests do, and I think it's time for things to bounce Detroit's way. Lions 27-26 on a last second play. Why not.
Jaguars (1-5) @ Packers (4-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 15
Nothing in the NFL makes enough sense this year for me to lay 15 points. Could happen, probably should happen, but there's a real good chance Jacksonville wins by some outrageous score like 12-9. I will say Pack roll but the Jags cover with a late TD. 34-24.
Colts (3-3) @ Titans (3-4)
Predicted Line: TEN by 2.5
Actual Line: TEN by 3.5
In two road games, Indy has been blown out twice, scoring an average of just 15 points. The Titans, on the other hand, got blown out in their first four games (I'm not including that abomination against Detroit as a "game"), but have now won two straight with Matt Hasselbeck. It helps that Chris Johnson decided to play like an actual NFL running back, though it took him 5 weeks, which is the equivalent of about 4 million wasted dollars. It makes sense to like the Titans in this game, but I'm overriding common sense and sticking with my gut, which still says that Andrew Luck is closer to being an elite QB than people think. Colts 23-20.
Patriots (4-3) vs. Rams (3-4) in London
Predicted Line: NE by 12
Actual Line: NE by 7
The only thing I don't like about these London games is that somebody loses a home game. That's a huge disadvantage. I don't have a clue how to remedy that problem, other than: don't play in London, or have a London team. If I had to choose between those options, I'd say don't play in London. We don't need a bunch of Brits telling us how futbol is better than football.
Anyway, Patriots are long overdue for a blow out, and they always play well in London. 38-23.
Dolphins (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 1
Flip a coin. Both teams are stupid. It's tails. Jets -1.
Falcons (6-0) @ Eagles (3-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by 2.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
Apparently, Michael Vick used to play for the Falcons. I might've taken Philly if they were a home underdog, but I sure don't want them as a 3 point favorite, especially a week after they fired their defensive coordinator. I know Andy Reid is 9-0 coming off a bye, but he's probably never faced a team like this year's Falcons in any of those 9 games. This line just makes no sense. Falcons 23-19.
Redskins (3-4) @ Steelers (3-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 4
Nobody wants to bet against RG3 right now, and I'm back in that camp. The Steelers will be without Polamalu again, and they have no healthy running backs, so they probably shouldn't be favored by 4. Heck, I'll say Redskins in a stunner, 34-31.
Raiders (2-4) @ Chiefs (1-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 1
Actual Line: KC by 1
Another important game in the battle for the #1 pick.
Geno Smith, coming off two lousy losses, has possibly fallen behind USC's Matt Barkley for the top pick. It's going to be pretty close anyway. They should be the top two picks, although Kansas State's Collin Klein has been amazing and might come out of nowhere to be the #1 pick if he keeps up this pace.
This game is horrible to think about. Oakland's terrible defense against Brady Quinn ...yuck. I don't even care what happens. I'll just take the home team.
Giants (5-2) @ Cowboys (3-3)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: NYG by 3
I guess DeMarco Murray's injury is the reason this line is so strange. But Dallas doesn't really use him anyway. The NFC East always ends up coming down to week 17, so I can't imagine the Giants running away with it in week 8. Cowboys in a surprising stompdown, 30-13.
Saints (2-4) @ Broncos (3-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 4
Actual Line: DEN by 6
I do like Peyton coming off a bye, but I don't like Drew Brees as a touchdown underdog. Forget everyone else in this game, this is a QB duel and it'll be closer than 6. Broncos by 2.
49ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 7
Way too many points to give a homedog. And how can Alex Smith cover 7 points against a really good defense? I don't feel good about this pick either way, because the Cardinals could easily get shut out, but I will take the points and say Niners 20-16.
That's the week 8 picks. Let's hope the Tigers don't get swept. And go Lions.
8-3-2 ATS
10-3 straight up
Season:
51-51-4 ATS
59-45 straight up
Starting to turn things around. Here are the week 8 picks:
Bucs (2-4) @ Vikings (5-2)
Predicted Line: MIN by 6.5
Actual Line: MIN by 7
Another low-scoring Thursday game. I'll take the points, but say Vikes win again, 20-16.
Panthers (1-5) @ Bears (5-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 8
Actual Line: CHI by 9
It's going to take more than a 5-1 start for me to believe in Jay Cutler. Cam Newton is the far better quarterback, and yet he's a 9 point underdog. Yes, the Bears defense is fifty times better than the Panthers defense, and yes these teams have momentum going in opposite directions, but based solely on the talent level and competitiveness of the quarterbacks, I'll take those points. Bears 27-23.
Chargers (3-3) @ Browns (1-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 3
Actual Line: SD by 2.5
I think the Chargers will play like crap, despite coming off a bye. I think Norv Turner is too busy thinking about getting fired to adequately create a gameplan, and I think Rivers is officially past his prime, and I think Ryan Matthews was a terrible 1st round fantasy pick for me and will continue to be so throughout the entire season with his fumbles and lack of speed. Also, the Bolts defense is not very good at all, and Trent Richardson might run all over them, and Cleveland has a better homefield advantage than people think. Despite all that, I still think San Diego covers. That's how little confidence I have in Cleveland and Brandon Weeden. Bolts 16-13.
Seahawks (4-3) @ Lions (2-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 1.5
After watching the Tigers completely blow game 1 of the World Series thanks to Verlander's inexplicably unlucky game, I'm too depressed to even think about this game. If Seattle wins, the season is basically over. I would feel a lot better if Detroit were the underdog so they could play off their own self-loathing as they like to do. But I digress ...
The Lions' squad is full of obvious deficiencies, but we expected this going into the year. We knew the secondary would be awful and we knew the running game would struggle. Most of the players have done what we expected. Nonetheless, they are only a few plays away from being 4-2 or 5-1.
In my opinion, only two players have massively underperformed, and those players are Stafford and Suh. Both should be elite players at their positions, based on their draft position and how they've played the last 2 seasons. But both are liabilities. Suh generates more penalties than sacks, and more bad PR than good plays on the field. Even when he gets a sack, he has to bend the guy backwards over his knee and slam his head to the grass, which wasn't necessary and just reinforces the notion that Suh is a villain.
And Stafford continues to impersonate Joey Harrington with his complete lack of urgency on third downs, his inaccuracy on short passes, and his utter failure to recognize and navigate a pass rush. The offensive line is getting blamed by people who don't know anything about football. It's not Backus or Raiola's fault that Stafford can't step up in the pocket, move his feet, and deliver the ball quickly. Scouts always talk about quarterback's footwork. Peyton Manning is known for his footwork more than anything else. Have you ever watched Drew Brees play? What percent of plays does he physically step forward to evade the pass rush, and buy himself 2 seconds to throw? 90%? How many times has Stafford done that through 6 games? Once? Maybe twice?
Last season, Stafford was doing the little things that successful QBs do. Stepping up in the pocket, looking off the safety, buying time with his feet, and throwing "catchable" balls that weren't just accurate, but hit the receiver perfectly in the hands. This year, he's doing none of those things. It's unexplainable. Nothing has changed, other than adding Ryan Broyles and Riley Reiff and another year of offseason experience. The only possible explanations are:
1) He spent the offseason partying, drinking, and being a frat boy like Matt Leinart, instead of watching film and working out like any of the elite quarterbacks who actually try to earn their colossal contracts.
2) The Madden Curse is manifesting itself in Calvin's quarterback.
I'm leaning towards #1 as the reason why Stafford sucks this year. And unfortunately I don't think he will get much better as the year goes on. I think we've seen a big enough sample size to say that Stafford has declined. In 6 games, he's only had a QB rating above 80 one time. That's downright awful. It's his rookie year all over again.
This should be another game that comes down to the final 30 seconds or so, as all Detroit contests do, and I think it's time for things to bounce Detroit's way. Lions 27-26 on a last second play. Why not.
Jaguars (1-5) @ Packers (4-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 15
Nothing in the NFL makes enough sense this year for me to lay 15 points. Could happen, probably should happen, but there's a real good chance Jacksonville wins by some outrageous score like 12-9. I will say Pack roll but the Jags cover with a late TD. 34-24.
Colts (3-3) @ Titans (3-4)
Predicted Line: TEN by 2.5
Actual Line: TEN by 3.5
In two road games, Indy has been blown out twice, scoring an average of just 15 points. The Titans, on the other hand, got blown out in their first four games (I'm not including that abomination against Detroit as a "game"), but have now won two straight with Matt Hasselbeck. It helps that Chris Johnson decided to play like an actual NFL running back, though it took him 5 weeks, which is the equivalent of about 4 million wasted dollars. It makes sense to like the Titans in this game, but I'm overriding common sense and sticking with my gut, which still says that Andrew Luck is closer to being an elite QB than people think. Colts 23-20.
Patriots (4-3) vs. Rams (3-4) in London
Predicted Line: NE by 12
Actual Line: NE by 7
The only thing I don't like about these London games is that somebody loses a home game. That's a huge disadvantage. I don't have a clue how to remedy that problem, other than: don't play in London, or have a London team. If I had to choose between those options, I'd say don't play in London. We don't need a bunch of Brits telling us how futbol is better than football.
Anyway, Patriots are long overdue for a blow out, and they always play well in London. 38-23.
Dolphins (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 1
Flip a coin. Both teams are stupid. It's tails. Jets -1.
Falcons (6-0) @ Eagles (3-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by 2.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
Apparently, Michael Vick used to play for the Falcons. I might've taken Philly if they were a home underdog, but I sure don't want them as a 3 point favorite, especially a week after they fired their defensive coordinator. I know Andy Reid is 9-0 coming off a bye, but he's probably never faced a team like this year's Falcons in any of those 9 games. This line just makes no sense. Falcons 23-19.
Redskins (3-4) @ Steelers (3-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 4
Nobody wants to bet against RG3 right now, and I'm back in that camp. The Steelers will be without Polamalu again, and they have no healthy running backs, so they probably shouldn't be favored by 4. Heck, I'll say Redskins in a stunner, 34-31.
Raiders (2-4) @ Chiefs (1-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 1
Actual Line: KC by 1
Another important game in the battle for the #1 pick.
Geno Smith, coming off two lousy losses, has possibly fallen behind USC's Matt Barkley for the top pick. It's going to be pretty close anyway. They should be the top two picks, although Kansas State's Collin Klein has been amazing and might come out of nowhere to be the #1 pick if he keeps up this pace.
This game is horrible to think about. Oakland's terrible defense against Brady Quinn ...yuck. I don't even care what happens. I'll just take the home team.
Giants (5-2) @ Cowboys (3-3)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: NYG by 3
I guess DeMarco Murray's injury is the reason this line is so strange. But Dallas doesn't really use him anyway. The NFC East always ends up coming down to week 17, so I can't imagine the Giants running away with it in week 8. Cowboys in a surprising stompdown, 30-13.
Saints (2-4) @ Broncos (3-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 4
Actual Line: DEN by 6
I do like Peyton coming off a bye, but I don't like Drew Brees as a touchdown underdog. Forget everyone else in this game, this is a QB duel and it'll be closer than 6. Broncos by 2.
49ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 7
Way too many points to give a homedog. And how can Alex Smith cover 7 points against a really good defense? I don't feel good about this pick either way, because the Cardinals could easily get shut out, but I will take the points and say Niners 20-16.
That's the week 8 picks. Let's hope the Tigers don't get swept. And go Lions.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
World Series Preview
Great week of football picks: 8-3-2 against the spread, 10-3 straight up. Now right at .500 for the year, at 51-51-4, and 59-45 straight up. Things are starting to make sense. Maybe. One thing is for sure: Matthew Stafford is terrible. I can't believe how much I dislike that guy right now.
Instead of my usual picks, I'm going to talk about the World Series, which starts tomorrow.
The Giants came back from an improbable 3-1 deficit and now face the Tigers, who underachieved as much as any team in the MLB during the regular season, but somehow ended up stomping the obnoxious Yankees in the ALCS. It's easy to forget that if Coco Crisp didn't drop a fly ball, the Tigers would have eliminated in 4 games in the first round. It's also easy to forget the struggles of Peralta and Delmon Young, who both were fantastic in the playoffs but terrible in the regular season. Young improved from .267 to .294 and Peralta went up from .239 to .343. I don't know why Delmon Young waited 165 games to show patience at the plate and take bad pitches, but he's doing it now and it's one of the biggest reasons why Detroit is the favorites to win it all.
Because of the days off, the Tigers have their starting rotation set just the way they want it, while San Francisco has to pitch whoever is available.
Game one pits the best pitcher in the world against Barry Zito, the 34 year old Giants lefty who won the Cy Young way back in 2002. Zito was one of the best pitchers in the league from '01 to '03, but has steadily declined since, and this year was downright awful against right handed batters, giving up a .355 average and 18 homers. All season, Detroit's hitters have struggled against righties and killed lefties, so this is a perfect matchup for game 1. Verlander has plenty of rest and has been focused on dominating the World Series since April, so he'll be zooming through at least 8 innings and giving up at most 2 runs, probably fewer.
The Giants' lineup is loaded with singles hitters, which is why they were 3rd in the NL in average but only 8th in slugging percentage. They are quite average in drawing walks, average in stolen bases, and average in runs scored. They don't excel in anything, but they certainly aren't bad offensively in any way.
By far, their best offensive player is Buster Posey, the best catcher in baseball. In fact, Posey led the NL in batting average (.336) and was super consistent, hitting above .300 in five of six months this season. (Posey is also a huge reason why my fantasy baseball team won the championship).
The rest of their lineup is pretty average, with stud outfielder Melky Cabrera suspended since August. Second basemen Marco Scutaro is a solid .300 hitter with no power, but he's currently on a 10 game hitting streak in the playoffs. Outfielder Hunter Pence is a good player (.285 career average with lots of power and tons of RBI), but since being traded to San Fran in August he is hitting only .219. Then there's speedy Angel Pagan, a .288 hitter with almost 30 steals. And Pablo Sandoval is a stocky 3rd basemen with some power and a solid average. It's not an overpowering offense, but it's no slouch.
The Giants' pitching staff is much more imposing than their offense, much like Detroit. Ace Matt Cain (who will pitch game 4 against Max) is one of the best pitchers in the business, and Ryan Vogelsong (game 3 against Sanchez) is a definite stud. Then there's Madison Bumgarner, who pitches against Fister in game 2 in what should be the best pitching matchup of the series. As far as bullpens, San Fran's is excellent (fewest blown saves in the NL, anchored by 2 great relivers in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. Detroit's bullpen is erratic at best. Coke and Albuquerque have been solid in the playoffs, Benoit was good in the regular season, and Smyly and Dotel are decent but not dominant. If Leyland pitches Valverde in the 9th inning, which I highly suspect he will, it will be an indication that Leyland values stupidity over winning, but we already know that to be true. However, I do think the Potato closes 1 or 2 games without giving up a run. Just getting by on luck and defense, as he's done before.
To be honest, I still can't believe the Tigers made the World Series, with the hideous regular season they suffered through. But right now, our starting pitching is unbelievable, and the offense is doing just enough. Here is my World Series prediction:
Game One - Verlander dominates - 8 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, Ks. Tigers win 5-2.
Game Two - Fister and Bumgarner duel, it's 2-2 going into the 8th, and Detroit gets the clutch hit and the 3-2 win.
Game Three - Vogelsong stymies the Detroit offense, but Sanchez holds his own and Detroit somehow sneaks away with another close win.
Game Four - Cain keeps the Giants from being swept. Scherzer bombs. Giants 8-2.
Game Five - Verlander slams the door, complete game shutout, and wins the World Series MVP.
Tigers in 5.
Instead of my usual picks, I'm going to talk about the World Series, which starts tomorrow.
The Giants came back from an improbable 3-1 deficit and now face the Tigers, who underachieved as much as any team in the MLB during the regular season, but somehow ended up stomping the obnoxious Yankees in the ALCS. It's easy to forget that if Coco Crisp didn't drop a fly ball, the Tigers would have eliminated in 4 games in the first round. It's also easy to forget the struggles of Peralta and Delmon Young, who both were fantastic in the playoffs but terrible in the regular season. Young improved from .267 to .294 and Peralta went up from .239 to .343. I don't know why Delmon Young waited 165 games to show patience at the plate and take bad pitches, but he's doing it now and it's one of the biggest reasons why Detroit is the favorites to win it all.
Because of the days off, the Tigers have their starting rotation set just the way they want it, while San Francisco has to pitch whoever is available.
Game one pits the best pitcher in the world against Barry Zito, the 34 year old Giants lefty who won the Cy Young way back in 2002. Zito was one of the best pitchers in the league from '01 to '03, but has steadily declined since, and this year was downright awful against right handed batters, giving up a .355 average and 18 homers. All season, Detroit's hitters have struggled against righties and killed lefties, so this is a perfect matchup for game 1. Verlander has plenty of rest and has been focused on dominating the World Series since April, so he'll be zooming through at least 8 innings and giving up at most 2 runs, probably fewer.
The Giants' lineup is loaded with singles hitters, which is why they were 3rd in the NL in average but only 8th in slugging percentage. They are quite average in drawing walks, average in stolen bases, and average in runs scored. They don't excel in anything, but they certainly aren't bad offensively in any way.
By far, their best offensive player is Buster Posey, the best catcher in baseball. In fact, Posey led the NL in batting average (.336) and was super consistent, hitting above .300 in five of six months this season. (Posey is also a huge reason why my fantasy baseball team won the championship).
The rest of their lineup is pretty average, with stud outfielder Melky Cabrera suspended since August. Second basemen Marco Scutaro is a solid .300 hitter with no power, but he's currently on a 10 game hitting streak in the playoffs. Outfielder Hunter Pence is a good player (.285 career average with lots of power and tons of RBI), but since being traded to San Fran in August he is hitting only .219. Then there's speedy Angel Pagan, a .288 hitter with almost 30 steals. And Pablo Sandoval is a stocky 3rd basemen with some power and a solid average. It's not an overpowering offense, but it's no slouch.
The Giants' pitching staff is much more imposing than their offense, much like Detroit. Ace Matt Cain (who will pitch game 4 against Max) is one of the best pitchers in the business, and Ryan Vogelsong (game 3 against Sanchez) is a definite stud. Then there's Madison Bumgarner, who pitches against Fister in game 2 in what should be the best pitching matchup of the series. As far as bullpens, San Fran's is excellent (fewest blown saves in the NL, anchored by 2 great relivers in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. Detroit's bullpen is erratic at best. Coke and Albuquerque have been solid in the playoffs, Benoit was good in the regular season, and Smyly and Dotel are decent but not dominant. If Leyland pitches Valverde in the 9th inning, which I highly suspect he will, it will be an indication that Leyland values stupidity over winning, but we already know that to be true. However, I do think the Potato closes 1 or 2 games without giving up a run. Just getting by on luck and defense, as he's done before.
To be honest, I still can't believe the Tigers made the World Series, with the hideous regular season they suffered through. But right now, our starting pitching is unbelievable, and the offense is doing just enough. Here is my World Series prediction:
Game One - Verlander dominates - 8 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, Ks. Tigers win 5-2.
Game Two - Fister and Bumgarner duel, it's 2-2 going into the 8th, and Detroit gets the clutch hit and the 3-2 win.
Game Three - Vogelsong stymies the Detroit offense, but Sanchez holds his own and Detroit somehow sneaks away with another close win.
Game Four - Cain keeps the Giants from being swept. Scherzer bombs. Giants 8-2.
Game Five - Verlander slams the door, complete game shutout, and wins the World Series MVP.
Tigers in 5.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 7 Picks
Still not a normal week, but I managed to go 9-5 ATS and 9-5 straight up. I'm now 43-48-2 ATS and 49-42 straight up. My fantasy teams continue to be an abomination, although I couldn't possibly be more unlucky. In the two leagues I care about, I'm 1-5 in each, with the lowest points scored. In the other two leagues I sort of care about, I'm 3-3 in each with pretty good teams. In the 6 other leagues, I'm totally dominating; 5 of the 6 have winning records. The lesson is: the more I overthink it, the worse I do. Example: drafting Phillip Rivers in both the A and B league when I should have trusted my gut and taken the best QB available in the 1st round. Also, I'm the defending champ in both fantasy basketball (draft is tomorrow) and fantasy baseball. Those leagues require a lot more "talent," or at least a lot less luck, so the fact that I'm good at those and not good at fantasy football makes me hate fantasy football even more. I seriously think this might be my last year suffering through fantasy football season.
Why? Because I can't even enjoy the NFL. I'm watching the Lions kick a field goal in overtime to win a game they desperately needed to win, and I can barely celebrate because within the last 30 seconds both Welker and Spiller scored TDs and I just went from trailing by 10 to trailing by 30. Why should I care if CJ Spiller scores? Why should that ruin my day? I just want to quit the whole stupid thing.
Anyway .. the week 7 picks:
Seahawks (4-2) @ 49ers (4-2)
Predicted Line: SF by 6.5
Actual Line: SF by 7
Seattle is the best team in the NFC West at home, and the worst team in the NFC West on the road. After all that dumb trash-talk against Tom Brady, they are due for a crash. Seriously, why is Richard Sherman talking trash to Tom Brady? Sherman has played 20 games in his career ... Brady has played 22 PLAYOFF games and won multiple Super Bowls and is married to a supermodel and is basically the king of America. It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day. Ridiculous.
On the flip side, I am engrossed by watching the Pats lose. I really like the Patriots, they're my second favorite team after Detroit, but when Tom Brady is 3-3 and fighting for a playoff spot, it's riveting entertainment. In fact, the entire AFC East is 3-3. Yes, Miami and New England have the same record. It's like the season hasn't even started yet.
Furthermore, only two teams in the AFC have winning records right now, compared to 7 teams in the NFC. And when the two conferences play head-to-head, the NFC has won 19 of 28 games. So it's safe to say the NFC kicks the AFC's butt.
For this game, I like the Niners but I'll take the points. San Fran 17-12. The Thursday games have been extremely low-scoring; only one team out of 12 has scored more than 24 points, and the average combined score is 37 points, while the average combined score for Sunday games is 52.
*Last note: do you realize that one division currently has 4 of the 5 best defenses in the NFL? And that division is ... the NFC Freaking West. No joke. In terms of points allowed, those teams rank 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th. I can't figure out what to do with that information.
Titans (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3.5
Actual Line: BUF by 3
Speaking of defenses giving up points ... these teams rank 31st and 32th, both allowing upwards of 30 points per game. The Titans have been more consistently bad, giving up 34, 38, 41, 38, 30, and 23 ... while the Bills have allowed a few massive outbursts (52, 48 and 45), but also played three great defensive games (17, 14 and 16) against three bad teams. So the question: does Tennessee qualify as a bad team? My gut says yes. I don't trust Chris Johnson one bit anymore. And I sure don't think the Titans can keep the Bills' fully healthy offense from scoring at least 3 touchdowns. So I'll say Bills 30-23.
Browns (1-5) @ Colts (2-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 3
Huh? The Colts and Browns are considered equal? Andrew Luck is equal to Brandon Weeden? Then why is it that VP Candidate Paul Ryan couldn't tell the difference between Weeden and Colt McCoy?
Speaking of Paul Ryan, I really want to like the guy, but he's making it awfully tough. First, his marathon lie, which really upset me as a runner. (How do you claim to have run it in 6:52 pace when you actually ran it in 9:21 pace. Pretty big difference.) Then, his fake soup kitchen visit, which really upset me as somebody who cares about homeless people. I know all politicians do that kind of stuff, but don't make it so obvious and don't pretend to wash a perfectly clean pot. That was just embarrassing I feel like next he's going to say that he skydived 24 miles, and then when he's caught in that lie, he'll say "Oh, oops, I was thinking of the Demon Drop at Cedar Point....Pretty much the same thing."
Logic tells me to take the Browns, because they have some ideal matchups that will neutralize a few of Indy's best players (Joe Haden covering Reggie Wayne, Joe Thomas on Dwight Freeney). Also Cleveland can run the ball better, and has better linebackers. But at home, with a QB that I'm convinced is less than a year from being elite, Indy should be able to move the ball using Fleener, Avery, Hilton, and maybe a few big running plays for Luck. Plus, I'm still convinced that Brandon Weeden is awful. Colts 27-22.
Packers (3-3) @ Rams (3-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 6
If there's any sense left in the world, the Packers will win big. I'm not even going to consider that anything else could happen. Packers 38-17.
Cardinals (4-2) @ Vikings (4-2)
Predicted Line: MIN by 3.5
Actual Line: MIN by 6
Remember when Arizona was 4-0 and everybody (including me) said "Watch out for Arizona!" I pointed out that their schedule was about to get easy and they could win 3 straight. Or..... they could lose to St. Louis and Buffalo, scoring 19 points combined in those games. No running game, worst offensive line in the league, Kevin Kolb .... why are we surprised? Minnesota, on the other hand, is the team that nobody really wants to see right now. Harvin is playing his best football ever, Christian Ponder looks almost Manning-esque (I said almost) with his intelligence and ability to out-think the defense, and AP looks like AP. They are by no means a juggernaut, and I'm still not sure they should be favored by 6, but looking at their schedule, they are probably going to be 7-3 before their brutal stretch of games comes. I don't like giving 6 points with the Vikings, but I don't know that Arizona's offense can score at all. Vikes 23-6.
*Sidenote: Back in May I ranked the 32 best QBs in the league. Those rankings look idiotic now (you can take RG3 at 25 and Stafford at 5 and flip them, and you can move Matt Ryan up from 12 to 3, for starters), but using that list for lack of a better list, the Vikings have only played against 1 quarterback who is a top 15 guy (Stafford, who totally sucks this year) and they won't see another top 15 guy until they've played 5 more games, and they'll only see 2 top 10 QBs all year. So in other words, they don't have to play Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Ryan, Cam, Rivers, Ben, Romo or Flacco this season. Talk about a lucky schedule. The only elite QBs they'll face will be Rodgers andStafford
Redskins (3-3) @ Giants (4-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4.5
Actual Line: NYG by 6
Among the many reasons why this is the weirdest NFL season ever, there's this: Alfred Morris and Steven Ridley are both top five in carries. Those are, of course, Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick's running backs. Last few years, Shanahan didn't even keep a RB on his roster longer than a month. In 2011, it was Hightower, then Torain, then Helu, then Royster. In 2010, it was Portis, then Torain, then Keiland Williams, then some guy named James Davis. In 2009, it was Portis, Betts, Cartwright, and the mysterious Quinton Ganther. That was 11 different starting running backs in 3 years. Now, all of a sudden, 6th round pick Alfred Morris has more carries than McCoy or Rice or pretty much anybody, and no one else on Washington is relevant. What happened to Shanahan's long-lasting "I hate fantasy football" approach?!?!?!
And don't even get me started on New England. Ridley is running the ball an average of 19.6 times this year, more than even Alfred Morris. Last year, when they had a solid RB in Green-Ellis, he got only 11 carries per game, because Belichick had to throw in Ridley/Woodhead/Faulk/Vereen randomly, just to infuriate fantasy owners. In the years before that, Fred Taylor, Sammie Morris, Lawrence Maroney, and 45 other guys shared the backfield, and just when you thought your guy might get a TD, he would put in Richard Seymour or Steven Gostkowski to run the TD.
Now, Morris and RG3 are two of the most effective runners in the league, and the worst coach in the NFL is suddenly a genius again. I've gotta take the points in this game, because the Giants sleepwalk at home and destroy people on the road. Plus, did you see RG3's 76 yard run last week? How can you pick against that guy for at least a backdoor cover? G-men 34-31.
Saints (1-4) @ Bucs (2-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3
Are the Saints going to rebound from 0-4 and make the playoffs? After this, they should be 2-4, and I actually don't hate their chances. They would have to beat some tough teams and win some tough road games, but Drew Brees can outscore anybody and he plays well on the road. I'm a little excited to see if they can reel off 6 or 7 wins in a row. They'll win this one easily. Tampa is great against the run, and awful against the pass. That makes for a big game for Brees, and despite the Saints' defense, New Orleans just outscores them, 41-27.
Cowboys (2-3) @ Panthers (1-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 1
Actual Line: DAL by 2
Each team's strength against the other's weakness. Carolina will run all over Dallas and avoid obvious passing downs, because a well-kept secret is that Dallas has the #1 ranked pass defense. Meanwhile, with DeMarco injured Dallas will keep the ball in the air and pick apart Carolina's sad secondary. At least that's what they should do. But there's a pretty good chance that Jason Garrett wants to "establish the run" with Felix Jones, which didn't work in 2009, 2010, or 2011, so naturally it will work fabulously in 2012. My gut is telling me that Dallas is too dumb to win this game on the road. Carolina 26-23 in OT.
Ravens (5-1) @ Texans (5-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 7
Ray Lewis - out for the year. Lardarius Webb - out for the year. Terrell Suggs - supposed to be out for the year, but supposedly returning this week. But there's no way Suggs will be 100% healthy. And without Webb, the Ravens secondary becomes much, much worse. If Andre Johnson were still alive, I'd say Houston would pass all over them.
Houston, meanwhile, also lost their stud middle linebacker (Cushing) for the year, but they've still got defensive-MVP-in-the-making J.J. Watt anchoring a very dominant defense.
As I said earlier, there are only two teams in the AFC with winning records. How fitting that they play each other. I like Houston, but I can't figure out how they're 7 point favorites over a team as good as Baltimore. I'll take the points and say Texans 24-20.
Jaguars (1-4) @ Raiders (1-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 4
This could be a big game in deciding the eventual #1 overall pick. The Browns will be in contention too, and maybe the Chiefs. The two worst records in the NFC are currently the Saints and Panthers, and I expect both teams to rebound and get a pick outside of the top 5. I don't know who will plummet from the NFC and end up picking in the top 5 (maybe Detroit, I hate to say it), but it's also possible that the top 5 picks will all be AFC teams. Of those, most will have QBs that are either expensive or very young (Palmer, Weeden, Gabbert) but that won't stop them from picking a new franchise QB. In fact, Cleveland just released GM Mike Holmgren (who, let's be honest, did a horrendous job with the Browns), and that probably signifies the end of the Weeden Era already. New GMs like new QBs.
The 2013 NFL draft has seen an interesting shakeup, as Geno Smith has replaced Matt Barkley as the likely #1 pick and the Heisman favorite. Barkley will likely go #2, and then there should be a few QBs in the mid-to-late 1st round (Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray, maybe Landry Jones). Geno has basically followed in the footsteps of Cam Newton and RG3 and come out of nowhere, and he appears to be the real deal, just as they were. He's super fast, he can throw a deep ball with accuracy, and he's humble and smart. I watched enough Youtube videos of him to hope Matt Stafford suffers a career ending injury and the Lions somehow get Geno.
Speaking of Stafford, how many weeks until I can legitimately start saying I would rather see Shaun Hill play? Does Stafford realize that the first 3 quarters count towards the final score? Have you ever seen a quarterback play with less urgency on 3rd downs? Yes, only once. His name was Joseph Harrington.
I like Jacksonville to pull the upset and Oakland to inch closer to Geno Smith.
Jets (3-3) @ Patriots (3-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 11
These teams having the same record makes me irate. If the Revis-less Jets win, I will never speak a word about football for the rest of my life. And yet, I'm reminded of my 53/47 discovery from last week, and I'm scared to base my pick on what I used to think was true. Might as well just take the 11 points, because the Jets have a 47% chance of winning straight up. What a dumb year. Pats 28-27.
Steelers (2-3) @ Bengals (3-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2.5
Actual Line: PIT by 1.5
Another instance where the better team does not have the better record. How annoying. Speaking of annoying, here are a couple of QB related stats that summarize how dumb this season is:
-Aaron Rodgers has the best QB rating in the NFL. Yet, the Pack are 3-3 and considered super disappointing.
-Andy Dalton has more TD passes than Tom Brady.
-RG3 and Stafford COMBINED have thrown for 9 TDs, fewer than 10 other QBs.
This year is dumb. The Steelers are a much better team, but I don't trust them at all. But the spread is so low, so I'm taking the bait. PIT by 3.
Lions (2-3) @ Bears (4-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 6.5
Actual Line: CHI by 6
This will literally make or break Detroit's season. Our next three games after this are super winnable, so a win here could help us get up to 5-4 before we meet the Packers and Texans in consecutive weeks.
But a loss here puts us at 2-4 and completely deflates us, and means best case scenario is 4-5 (but probably 3-6 because most of the team will quit because the team has no leadership) as we head into the brutal part of the schedule. If we lose this game, we'll very likely be 3-8 on Black Friday. By that point, Calvin will be hurt, and we'll finish 4-12.
But if we win, not only do we make up some hugely important ground in the division and steal a road game from a good team, but we basically reconcile the inexcusable losses to Tennessee and Minnesota, and we get some momentum.
From Chicago's standpoint, this is basically a chance to eliminate a division foe from the playoffs, not to mention it keeps them 2 games ahead of Green Bay for a potential bye in the playoffs. They won't take us lightly. They, unlike Detroit, have good team leadership.
So, both teams should be pretty ready to play on Monday night. Here's a little bit of analysis for the game ...
Peppers is a matchup nightmare for Backus, as we've seen before, and Chicago is absolutely dominant against the run, despite getting basically nothing from Urlacher, who is playing hurt. If Linehan insists on "establishing the run" once again, might as well turn off the TV early. We need to come out throwing, we need to use the damn double-teams that Calvin demands, rather than putting ourselves in 3rd and 9 situations, so Stafford can check down or throw the ball out of bounds, which he thoroughly enjoys doing. We can't run the ball against bad defenses, so we surely can't run it against good defenses. Let's not waste the first 3 quarters this week.
Detroit's biggest problem offensively has been 3rd downs, especially once we move into scoring position. In each of our last four games, we kicked two successful field goals before getting a TD. Going up 6-0 is pretty freaking worthless, as we saw in the Tennessee game. It's not that we're facing great defenses... we're just playing lazy and stupid on 3rd downs. Stafford is treating 3rd and 5 from the 25 yard line with the urgency of a preseason game. He gives up on the play before the pass rush even gets close to him. He still hasn't stepped up in the pocket once this season, and I haven't seen him even attempt to look off a safety and help a receiver get open. Instead he just wants it to be everybody else's fault for not getting open, and he wants to throw the ball away so the announcers will say "That was actually pretty smart." No, it's not smart to give up on a 3rd down. Don't turn the ball over, but don't give up on the play either. Try to buy some time. To be a great quarterback, you actually have to make great plays. Damn it Stafford, I hate you.
As far as our defense is concerned, Forte will be able to run right past the undisciplined, overpursuing D-line, while Fairley tries to keep up his pace of 1 offsides penalty per quarter. Our secondary is awful against everybody, but if Chris Houston and a safety can keep Marshall covered up, we might be in decent shape. The rest of the Bears receivers are not great. That said, I fully expect Ashlon Jeffrey to catch a 60-yard TD, or two. But maybe, just maybe, we can prevent that from happening. Maybe, for the first time this season, our defense can avoid giving up the big, crushing play. That will literally be the only way we win. (My guess is that the "big play" will be a 75 yard screen pass to Forte.)
I like the prospect of taking Detroit because of the 6 points and the Lions' ability to make games close at the end. But unfortunately, I'm going the other way this week. I just think the Bears have us outmatched almost everywhere. Our 2nd and 3rd best players (Suh and Stafford) are playing like absolute crap, and we're only utilizing our best player in the 4th quarter. I think Chicago can get TDs and run the ball down our throat, and I think we keep Jason Hanson busy once again. I think Detroit is down 27-6 at halftime, and the deficit is too big to catch up in our panicked 4th quarter. Bears win 44-27. Ugh, I hope I'm wrong.
Go Lions.
Why? Because I can't even enjoy the NFL. I'm watching the Lions kick a field goal in overtime to win a game they desperately needed to win, and I can barely celebrate because within the last 30 seconds both Welker and Spiller scored TDs and I just went from trailing by 10 to trailing by 30. Why should I care if CJ Spiller scores? Why should that ruin my day? I just want to quit the whole stupid thing.
Anyway .. the week 7 picks:
Seahawks (4-2) @ 49ers (4-2)
Predicted Line: SF by 6.5
Actual Line: SF by 7
Seattle is the best team in the NFC West at home, and the worst team in the NFC West on the road. After all that dumb trash-talk against Tom Brady, they are due for a crash. Seriously, why is Richard Sherman talking trash to Tom Brady? Sherman has played 20 games in his career ... Brady has played 22 PLAYOFF games and won multiple Super Bowls and is married to a supermodel and is basically the king of America. It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day. Ridiculous.
On the flip side, I am engrossed by watching the Pats lose. I really like the Patriots, they're my second favorite team after Detroit, but when Tom Brady is 3-3 and fighting for a playoff spot, it's riveting entertainment. In fact, the entire AFC East is 3-3. Yes, Miami and New England have the same record. It's like the season hasn't even started yet.
Furthermore, only two teams in the AFC have winning records right now, compared to 7 teams in the NFC. And when the two conferences play head-to-head, the NFC has won 19 of 28 games. So it's safe to say the NFC kicks the AFC's butt.
For this game, I like the Niners but I'll take the points. San Fran 17-12. The Thursday games have been extremely low-scoring; only one team out of 12 has scored more than 24 points, and the average combined score is 37 points, while the average combined score for Sunday games is 52.
*Last note: do you realize that one division currently has 4 of the 5 best defenses in the NFL? And that division is ... the NFC Freaking West. No joke. In terms of points allowed, those teams rank 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th. I can't figure out what to do with that information.
Titans (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3.5
Actual Line: BUF by 3
Speaking of defenses giving up points ... these teams rank 31st and 32th, both allowing upwards of 30 points per game. The Titans have been more consistently bad, giving up 34, 38, 41, 38, 30, and 23 ... while the Bills have allowed a few massive outbursts (52, 48 and 45), but also played three great defensive games (17, 14 and 16) against three bad teams. So the question: does Tennessee qualify as a bad team? My gut says yes. I don't trust Chris Johnson one bit anymore. And I sure don't think the Titans can keep the Bills' fully healthy offense from scoring at least 3 touchdowns. So I'll say Bills 30-23.
Browns (1-5) @ Colts (2-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 3
Huh? The Colts and Browns are considered equal? Andrew Luck is equal to Brandon Weeden? Then why is it that VP Candidate Paul Ryan couldn't tell the difference between Weeden and Colt McCoy?
Speaking of Paul Ryan, I really want to like the guy, but he's making it awfully tough. First, his marathon lie, which really upset me as a runner. (How do you claim to have run it in 6:52 pace when you actually ran it in 9:21 pace. Pretty big difference.) Then, his fake soup kitchen visit, which really upset me as somebody who cares about homeless people. I know all politicians do that kind of stuff, but don't make it so obvious and don't pretend to wash a perfectly clean pot. That was just embarrassing I feel like next he's going to say that he skydived 24 miles, and then when he's caught in that lie, he'll say "Oh, oops, I was thinking of the Demon Drop at Cedar Point....Pretty much the same thing."
Logic tells me to take the Browns, because they have some ideal matchups that will neutralize a few of Indy's best players (Joe Haden covering Reggie Wayne, Joe Thomas on Dwight Freeney). Also Cleveland can run the ball better, and has better linebackers. But at home, with a QB that I'm convinced is less than a year from being elite, Indy should be able to move the ball using Fleener, Avery, Hilton, and maybe a few big running plays for Luck. Plus, I'm still convinced that Brandon Weeden is awful. Colts 27-22.
Packers (3-3) @ Rams (3-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 6
If there's any sense left in the world, the Packers will win big. I'm not even going to consider that anything else could happen. Packers 38-17.
Cardinals (4-2) @ Vikings (4-2)
Predicted Line: MIN by 3.5
Actual Line: MIN by 6
Remember when Arizona was 4-0 and everybody (including me) said "Watch out for Arizona!" I pointed out that their schedule was about to get easy and they could win 3 straight. Or..... they could lose to St. Louis and Buffalo, scoring 19 points combined in those games. No running game, worst offensive line in the league, Kevin Kolb .... why are we surprised? Minnesota, on the other hand, is the team that nobody really wants to see right now. Harvin is playing his best football ever, Christian Ponder looks almost Manning-esque (I said almost) with his intelligence and ability to out-think the defense, and AP looks like AP. They are by no means a juggernaut, and I'm still not sure they should be favored by 6, but looking at their schedule, they are probably going to be 7-3 before their brutal stretch of games comes. I don't like giving 6 points with the Vikings, but I don't know that Arizona's offense can score at all. Vikes 23-6.
*Sidenote: Back in May I ranked the 32 best QBs in the league. Those rankings look idiotic now (you can take RG3 at 25 and Stafford at 5 and flip them, and you can move Matt Ryan up from 12 to 3, for starters), but using that list for lack of a better list, the Vikings have only played against 1 quarterback who is a top 15 guy (Stafford, who totally sucks this year) and they won't see another top 15 guy until they've played 5 more games, and they'll only see 2 top 10 QBs all year. So in other words, they don't have to play Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Ryan, Cam, Rivers, Ben, Romo or Flacco this season. Talk about a lucky schedule. The only elite QBs they'll face will be Rodgers and
Redskins (3-3) @ Giants (4-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4.5
Actual Line: NYG by 6
Among the many reasons why this is the weirdest NFL season ever, there's this: Alfred Morris and Steven Ridley are both top five in carries. Those are, of course, Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick's running backs. Last few years, Shanahan didn't even keep a RB on his roster longer than a month. In 2011, it was Hightower, then Torain, then Helu, then Royster. In 2010, it was Portis, then Torain, then Keiland Williams, then some guy named James Davis. In 2009, it was Portis, Betts, Cartwright, and the mysterious Quinton Ganther. That was 11 different starting running backs in 3 years. Now, all of a sudden, 6th round pick Alfred Morris has more carries than McCoy or Rice or pretty much anybody, and no one else on Washington is relevant. What happened to Shanahan's long-lasting "I hate fantasy football" approach?!?!?!
And don't even get me started on New England. Ridley is running the ball an average of 19.6 times this year, more than even Alfred Morris. Last year, when they had a solid RB in Green-Ellis, he got only 11 carries per game, because Belichick had to throw in Ridley/Woodhead/Faulk/Vereen randomly, just to infuriate fantasy owners. In the years before that, Fred Taylor, Sammie Morris, Lawrence Maroney, and 45 other guys shared the backfield, and just when you thought your guy might get a TD, he would put in Richard Seymour or Steven Gostkowski to run the TD.
Now, Morris and RG3 are two of the most effective runners in the league, and the worst coach in the NFL is suddenly a genius again. I've gotta take the points in this game, because the Giants sleepwalk at home and destroy people on the road. Plus, did you see RG3's 76 yard run last week? How can you pick against that guy for at least a backdoor cover? G-men 34-31.
Saints (1-4) @ Bucs (2-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3
Are the Saints going to rebound from 0-4 and make the playoffs? After this, they should be 2-4, and I actually don't hate their chances. They would have to beat some tough teams and win some tough road games, but Drew Brees can outscore anybody and he plays well on the road. I'm a little excited to see if they can reel off 6 or 7 wins in a row. They'll win this one easily. Tampa is great against the run, and awful against the pass. That makes for a big game for Brees, and despite the Saints' defense, New Orleans just outscores them, 41-27.
Cowboys (2-3) @ Panthers (1-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 1
Actual Line: DAL by 2
Each team's strength against the other's weakness. Carolina will run all over Dallas and avoid obvious passing downs, because a well-kept secret is that Dallas has the #1 ranked pass defense. Meanwhile, with DeMarco injured Dallas will keep the ball in the air and pick apart Carolina's sad secondary. At least that's what they should do. But there's a pretty good chance that Jason Garrett wants to "establish the run" with Felix Jones, which didn't work in 2009, 2010, or 2011, so naturally it will work fabulously in 2012. My gut is telling me that Dallas is too dumb to win this game on the road. Carolina 26-23 in OT.
Ravens (5-1) @ Texans (5-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 7
Ray Lewis - out for the year. Lardarius Webb - out for the year. Terrell Suggs - supposed to be out for the year, but supposedly returning this week. But there's no way Suggs will be 100% healthy. And without Webb, the Ravens secondary becomes much, much worse. If Andre Johnson were still alive, I'd say Houston would pass all over them.
Houston, meanwhile, also lost their stud middle linebacker (Cushing) for the year, but they've still got defensive-MVP-in-the-making J.J. Watt anchoring a very dominant defense.
As I said earlier, there are only two teams in the AFC with winning records. How fitting that they play each other. I like Houston, but I can't figure out how they're 7 point favorites over a team as good as Baltimore. I'll take the points and say Texans 24-20.
Jaguars (1-4) @ Raiders (1-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 4
This could be a big game in deciding the eventual #1 overall pick. The Browns will be in contention too, and maybe the Chiefs. The two worst records in the NFC are currently the Saints and Panthers, and I expect both teams to rebound and get a pick outside of the top 5. I don't know who will plummet from the NFC and end up picking in the top 5 (maybe Detroit, I hate to say it), but it's also possible that the top 5 picks will all be AFC teams. Of those, most will have QBs that are either expensive or very young (Palmer, Weeden, Gabbert) but that won't stop them from picking a new franchise QB. In fact, Cleveland just released GM Mike Holmgren (who, let's be honest, did a horrendous job with the Browns), and that probably signifies the end of the Weeden Era already. New GMs like new QBs.
The 2013 NFL draft has seen an interesting shakeup, as Geno Smith has replaced Matt Barkley as the likely #1 pick and the Heisman favorite. Barkley will likely go #2, and then there should be a few QBs in the mid-to-late 1st round (Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray, maybe Landry Jones). Geno has basically followed in the footsteps of Cam Newton and RG3 and come out of nowhere, and he appears to be the real deal, just as they were. He's super fast, he can throw a deep ball with accuracy, and he's humble and smart. I watched enough Youtube videos of him to hope Matt Stafford suffers a career ending injury and the Lions somehow get Geno.
Speaking of Stafford, how many weeks until I can legitimately start saying I would rather see Shaun Hill play? Does Stafford realize that the first 3 quarters count towards the final score? Have you ever seen a quarterback play with less urgency on 3rd downs? Yes, only once. His name was Joseph Harrington.
I like Jacksonville to pull the upset and Oakland to inch closer to Geno Smith.
Jets (3-3) @ Patriots (3-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 11
These teams having the same record makes me irate. If the Revis-less Jets win, I will never speak a word about football for the rest of my life. And yet, I'm reminded of my 53/47 discovery from last week, and I'm scared to base my pick on what I used to think was true. Might as well just take the 11 points, because the Jets have a 47% chance of winning straight up. What a dumb year. Pats 28-27.
Steelers (2-3) @ Bengals (3-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2.5
Actual Line: PIT by 1.5
Another instance where the better team does not have the better record. How annoying. Speaking of annoying, here are a couple of QB related stats that summarize how dumb this season is:
-Aaron Rodgers has the best QB rating in the NFL. Yet, the Pack are 3-3 and considered super disappointing.
-Andy Dalton has more TD passes than Tom Brady.
-RG3 and Stafford COMBINED have thrown for 9 TDs, fewer than 10 other QBs.
This year is dumb. The Steelers are a much better team, but I don't trust them at all. But the spread is so low, so I'm taking the bait. PIT by 3.
Lions (2-3) @ Bears (4-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 6.5
Actual Line: CHI by 6
This will literally make or break Detroit's season. Our next three games after this are super winnable, so a win here could help us get up to 5-4 before we meet the Packers and Texans in consecutive weeks.
But a loss here puts us at 2-4 and completely deflates us, and means best case scenario is 4-5 (but probably 3-6 because most of the team will quit because the team has no leadership) as we head into the brutal part of the schedule. If we lose this game, we'll very likely be 3-8 on Black Friday. By that point, Calvin will be hurt, and we'll finish 4-12.
But if we win, not only do we make up some hugely important ground in the division and steal a road game from a good team, but we basically reconcile the inexcusable losses to Tennessee and Minnesota, and we get some momentum.
From Chicago's standpoint, this is basically a chance to eliminate a division foe from the playoffs, not to mention it keeps them 2 games ahead of Green Bay for a potential bye in the playoffs. They won't take us lightly. They, unlike Detroit, have good team leadership.
So, both teams should be pretty ready to play on Monday night. Here's a little bit of analysis for the game ...
Peppers is a matchup nightmare for Backus, as we've seen before, and Chicago is absolutely dominant against the run, despite getting basically nothing from Urlacher, who is playing hurt. If Linehan insists on "establishing the run" once again, might as well turn off the TV early. We need to come out throwing, we need to use the damn double-teams that Calvin demands, rather than putting ourselves in 3rd and 9 situations, so Stafford can check down or throw the ball out of bounds, which he thoroughly enjoys doing. We can't run the ball against bad defenses, so we surely can't run it against good defenses. Let's not waste the first 3 quarters this week.
Detroit's biggest problem offensively has been 3rd downs, especially once we move into scoring position. In each of our last four games, we kicked two successful field goals before getting a TD. Going up 6-0 is pretty freaking worthless, as we saw in the Tennessee game. It's not that we're facing great defenses... we're just playing lazy and stupid on 3rd downs. Stafford is treating 3rd and 5 from the 25 yard line with the urgency of a preseason game. He gives up on the play before the pass rush even gets close to him. He still hasn't stepped up in the pocket once this season, and I haven't seen him even attempt to look off a safety and help a receiver get open. Instead he just wants it to be everybody else's fault for not getting open, and he wants to throw the ball away so the announcers will say "That was actually pretty smart." No, it's not smart to give up on a 3rd down. Don't turn the ball over, but don't give up on the play either. Try to buy some time. To be a great quarterback, you actually have to make great plays. Damn it Stafford, I hate you.
As far as our defense is concerned, Forte will be able to run right past the undisciplined, overpursuing D-line, while Fairley tries to keep up his pace of 1 offsides penalty per quarter. Our secondary is awful against everybody, but if Chris Houston and a safety can keep Marshall covered up, we might be in decent shape. The rest of the Bears receivers are not great. That said, I fully expect Ashlon Jeffrey to catch a 60-yard TD, or two. But maybe, just maybe, we can prevent that from happening. Maybe, for the first time this season, our defense can avoid giving up the big, crushing play. That will literally be the only way we win. (My guess is that the "big play" will be a 75 yard screen pass to Forte.)
I like the prospect of taking Detroit because of the 6 points and the Lions' ability to make games close at the end. But unfortunately, I'm going the other way this week. I just think the Bears have us outmatched almost everywhere. Our 2nd and 3rd best players (Suh and Stafford) are playing like absolute crap, and we're only utilizing our best player in the 4th quarter. I think Chicago can get TDs and run the ball down our throat, and I think we keep Jason Hanson busy once again. I think Detroit is down 27-6 at halftime, and the deficit is too big to catch up in our panicked 4th quarter. Bears win 44-27. Ugh, I hope I'm wrong.
Go Lions.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Week 6 Picks
6-8 against the spread last week; 9-5 straight up. Now 34-43-2 ATS and 40-37 SU. Probably no hope of finishing above .500 this year. I am dismayed but going to stick to it and see if I can turn it around. But this whole season is stupid and makes no sense.
Here's how I see it: on a scale of 1 to 100, the best teams in the league are about a 53 and the worst teams are about a 47. If Houston plays Cleveland, even though Houston will be favored by 14, the chances of the Browns winning straight up are probably 47%. I know that sounds idiotic, but look at the surprisingly bad seasons for the Packers and Pats and Saints ... what about the Vikings being 4-1... nothing makes sense. I'm done trying to figure it out. I'm just looking at every game as a 50-50 or maybe 53-47 proposition, so might as well take the home teams.
Here's the week 6 picks:
Steelers (2-2) @ Titans (1-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 6.5
Jake Locker is out. So is Polamalu for the Steelers, and probably Lamar Woodley. Rashard Mendenhall made his debut last week (and started for all 4 of my fantasy teams) and ran for 81 yards ... about as many as Chris Johnson has in 5 games. With no Locker and a lethargic CJ, it seems likely that the Titans offense will be unable to move the ball. But with no Polamalu or Woodley, Pittsburgh's defense is pretty average, maybe even subpar. Matt Hasslebeck is a wily veteran who can move the chains in spurts, but CJ will do everything he can to halt Titans' drives and keep up his hideous 1.8 YPC. Whether the Titans offense sucks and scores 3 points, or they play fairly well and score 24, I don't think it'll matter ... Ben Roethlisberger is in a groove, and the Titans D has no playmakers. The combo of Mendenhall, Wallace, Brown and Heath Miller gives Pittsburgh too much firepower. Even on a short week and without their defensive stars, I think the Steelers kick some butt to get to 3-2. I'll say they win 34-20.
Lions (1-3) @ Eagles (3-2)
Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5
Actual Line: PHI by 4
I've picked the Lions every week and they've yet to win against the spread. I'm not doing it again until they play differently. Congrats to DeSean Jackson on returning 6 punts for TDs. That's gotta be a new record.
Eagles 77-14.
Raiders (1-3) @ Falcons (5-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 13.5
Actual Line: ATL by 9
This line is too low. Right? I don't know .... I guess Atlanta's due for a disappointment. I would pick against them if this were any team except Oakland. But I hate Oakland. Especially their defense, which is on pace to be the worst third-down defense ever. Falcons 30-13.
Bengals (3-2) @ Browns (0-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3.5
Actual Line: CIN by 3
So much for Cincy. They lost to Miami, they can't be taken too seriously anymore. Joe Haden comes back for Cleveland, just in time for AJ Green. That matchup will largely determine the game. However, Cleveland could be without stud linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, which would make their run defense nonexistent. I'd like to take Cincy, but this has 13-15 written all over it, so I'll go with the points. Cincy by 2.
Rams (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-3)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: MIA by 3.5
(Flipping coin). Heads it is. Fins +3.5.
Colts (2-2) @ Jets (2-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
Is the Andrew Luck Era officially underway after he led his team past Aaron Rodgers? Was that symbolic of the years to come? I mean, it sure seems like that should be a bigger deal than "What color is Tim Tebow's WWJD bracelet?" I think the Colts are the better team, so I'll take those 3 points. Indy 27-16.
Chiefs (1-4) @ Bucs (1-3)
Predicted Line: TB by 3
Actual Line: TB by 4
Brady Quinn hasn't started a game since 2009. (In fact, his last start was when Jerome Harrison nearly broke the single-game rushing record with 286 yards.) Since then, Quinn spent two years in Denver without ever seeing the field, and now he replaces Matt Cassel, who was concussed last week, much to the delight of Chiefs fans. Not a big Tampa fan this year, but I'm even less of a Brady Quinn fan. Bucs 20-13.
Cowboys (2-2) @ Ravens (4-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6
Actual Line: BAL by 4
My favorite thing was listening to Colin Cowherd try to convince us that Tony Romo's 5 interception game against Chicago wasn't actually a bad game, and that Romo is still one of the elite QBs in the league. That guy can be a real moron when he doesn't want to admit he's wrong. I mean, Romo is okay sometimes, but he threw 5 interceptions for crying out loud! But Cowherd goes off into one of his condescending rants .... "So what if he threw 5 picks ...come on ... 1 was Dez Bryant's fault, 1 time the defender made a great catch, 1 he threw into triple coverage trying to make a play, and 1 was a late-in-the-game desperation throw. Really, if you watched the game, he only threw 1 that was a bad interception. And a 1 interception game isn't that bad because he also had a TD! So, Romo still is elite!! He only threw 1 interception!!! He's like Michael Jordan - sometimes he throws an interception, but he also won 6 championships! Tony Romo won 6 championships! He's elite! Tebow sucks! USC USC USC!!! ahhhhHHHH!!!!"
I like the Ravens. Until Dallas realizes how good DeMarco Murray is they'll continue to lose these tough games. Baltimore 23-17.
Bills (2-3) @ Cardinals (4-1)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5
Actual Line: ARZ by 5
Well so much for Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. Both guys are on IR, so now it's William Powell getting the start. That dude doesn't even have a Wikipedia page, so he must be fairly irrelevant. It's funny to me that he'll probably start for tens of millions of fantasy football teams, and nobody knows what he looks like or anything about him. It's also funny that he'll either run for less than 20 yards or more than 250, with no chance to be in the middle. I like Buffalo to pull the upset here, or at least keep it close. In the midst of their 4-0 start, everyone forgot that the Cardinals have the league's worst O-line. Nine sacks against the Rams and people started to remember. But this line is still inflated because of their fluky start to the season. In fact, I'll say Bills outright, 27-23.
Patriots (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4
(Flip...) Tails it is. Seahawks -4.
Giants (3-2) @ 49ers (4-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 6.5
With as awesome as the Giants are on the road, I'm taking these points gleefully. SF by 2.
Vikings (4-1) @ Redskins (2-3)
Predicted Line: Griffin?
Actual Line: Sounds like RG3 will play, so the line should be WAS by about 3
If RG3 can't play, every indication is that Kirk Cousins has beat out Rex Grossman for the backup role. That would be awesome to see. But it sounds like RG3 had a "mild" concussion, whatever that means, and he'll probably start. If he does, I'm saying the Redskins will rally around him and the Vikes will wilt on the road. If RG3 does not play, let's call the line MIN by 3, and I like Washington to pull the upset straight up.
By the way, with the awful year that Cam Newton is having, how much longer do we have to wait before we ask who will end up being the best QB from the 2011 draft class? Ponder looks fantastic; Locker and Dalton look solid; and Gabbert is actually improving. Cam has a huge early lead, but I think Locker and Ponder could pass him by the end of this year.
Packers (2-3) @ Texans (5-0)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 3
My favorite football website used to be walterfootball.com. Unfortunately, that site has completely fallen to crap as Walt tries to be funny and is tragically unfunny. However, he still provides a few nuggets of good wisdom. For example:
Rodgers is 9-5 ATS as an underdog.
Rodgers is 10-4 ATS after a loss.
Rodgers is 18-9 ATS on the road.
Granted, Rodgers is good against the spread as a favorite, at home, after a win, pretty much always. But I really like getting points with him, even if it's just 3. I am not bailing on the Packers yet. In fact, I still like my Super Bowl pick (Pats over Pack), because both teams have somehow snuck under the radar. I'll say Green Bay wins outright, 24-20, and leaves Atlanta as the only unbeaten.
Broncos (2-3) @ Chargers (3-2)
Predicted Line: SD by 2.5
Actual Line: SD by 1.5
This is one of those week 6 games with huge playoff implications. If San Diego can get the win, they control the division. But on a Monday Night, is there anybody you can trust more than Peyton Manning? Broncos 37-27.
Go Lions. Let's not suck this week.
Also, go Tigers tonight. Game 5, win or go home. I have a great feeling that Verlander throws a 15-strikeout no-hitter in a game that becomes immortalized. I also think Verlander might get worked for some tough at-bats and only last 7 innings, and then the bullpen will ruin our season. After Jose Valverde's epic failure last night (he blew a 2 run lead in the 9th, you can say whatever crap you want about the A's being clutch and magical but that was a crappy closer having a crappy game and nothing else), does that mean we can finally get a new closer next year? How bout Albuquerque? I'm ready to see what Bruce Rondon (AAA closer) can do with his 102MPH stuff. Heck, Benoit would be a better closer, except that it takes him 95 seconds between pitches. Anyway, you can take Valverde, Delmon Young and Jim Leyland and send them all to Antarctica and we'll be a better baseball team effective immediately. I really hope we win tonight so we can take our shot at the super overrated Yankees and their lousy pitching staff, but I think there is a silver lining if we lose: Leyland will be history. Either way, there's no better spot than having the best pitcher in baseball pitching the deciding game. Verlander's going to need a shutout because we can't expect our offense to produce more than 2 or 3 runs the way they are playing.
Peace out.
Here's how I see it: on a scale of 1 to 100, the best teams in the league are about a 53 and the worst teams are about a 47. If Houston plays Cleveland, even though Houston will be favored by 14, the chances of the Browns winning straight up are probably 47%. I know that sounds idiotic, but look at the surprisingly bad seasons for the Packers and Pats and Saints ... what about the Vikings being 4-1... nothing makes sense. I'm done trying to figure it out. I'm just looking at every game as a 50-50 or maybe 53-47 proposition, so might as well take the home teams.
Here's the week 6 picks:
Steelers (2-2) @ Titans (1-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 6.5
Jake Locker is out. So is Polamalu for the Steelers, and probably Lamar Woodley. Rashard Mendenhall made his debut last week (and started for all 4 of my fantasy teams) and ran for 81 yards ... about as many as Chris Johnson has in 5 games. With no Locker and a lethargic CJ, it seems likely that the Titans offense will be unable to move the ball. But with no Polamalu or Woodley, Pittsburgh's defense is pretty average, maybe even subpar. Matt Hasslebeck is a wily veteran who can move the chains in spurts, but CJ will do everything he can to halt Titans' drives and keep up his hideous 1.8 YPC. Whether the Titans offense sucks and scores 3 points, or they play fairly well and score 24, I don't think it'll matter ... Ben Roethlisberger is in a groove, and the Titans D has no playmakers. The combo of Mendenhall, Wallace, Brown and Heath Miller gives Pittsburgh too much firepower. Even on a short week and without their defensive stars, I think the Steelers kick some butt to get to 3-2. I'll say they win 34-20.
Lions (1-3) @ Eagles (3-2)
Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5
Actual Line: PHI by 4
I've picked the Lions every week and they've yet to win against the spread. I'm not doing it again until they play differently. Congrats to DeSean Jackson on returning 6 punts for TDs. That's gotta be a new record.
Eagles 77-14.
Raiders (1-3) @ Falcons (5-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 13.5
Actual Line: ATL by 9
This line is too low. Right? I don't know .... I guess Atlanta's due for a disappointment. I would pick against them if this were any team except Oakland. But I hate Oakland. Especially their defense, which is on pace to be the worst third-down defense ever. Falcons 30-13.
Bengals (3-2) @ Browns (0-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3.5
Actual Line: CIN by 3
So much for Cincy. They lost to Miami, they can't be taken too seriously anymore. Joe Haden comes back for Cleveland, just in time for AJ Green. That matchup will largely determine the game. However, Cleveland could be without stud linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, which would make their run defense nonexistent. I'd like to take Cincy, but this has 13-15 written all over it, so I'll go with the points. Cincy by 2.
Rams (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-3)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: MIA by 3.5
(Flipping coin). Heads it is. Fins +3.5.
Colts (2-2) @ Jets (2-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
Is the Andrew Luck Era officially underway after he led his team past Aaron Rodgers? Was that symbolic of the years to come? I mean, it sure seems like that should be a bigger deal than "What color is Tim Tebow's WWJD bracelet?" I think the Colts are the better team, so I'll take those 3 points. Indy 27-16.
Chiefs (1-4) @ Bucs (1-3)
Predicted Line: TB by 3
Actual Line: TB by 4
Brady Quinn hasn't started a game since 2009. (In fact, his last start was when Jerome Harrison nearly broke the single-game rushing record with 286 yards.) Since then, Quinn spent two years in Denver without ever seeing the field, and now he replaces Matt Cassel, who was concussed last week, much to the delight of Chiefs fans. Not a big Tampa fan this year, but I'm even less of a Brady Quinn fan. Bucs 20-13.
Cowboys (2-2) @ Ravens (4-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6
Actual Line: BAL by 4
My favorite thing was listening to Colin Cowherd try to convince us that Tony Romo's 5 interception game against Chicago wasn't actually a bad game, and that Romo is still one of the elite QBs in the league. That guy can be a real moron when he doesn't want to admit he's wrong. I mean, Romo is okay sometimes, but he threw 5 interceptions for crying out loud! But Cowherd goes off into one of his condescending rants .... "So what if he threw 5 picks ...come on ... 1 was Dez Bryant's fault, 1 time the defender made a great catch, 1 he threw into triple coverage trying to make a play, and 1 was a late-in-the-game desperation throw. Really, if you watched the game, he only threw 1 that was a bad interception. And a 1 interception game isn't that bad because he also had a TD! So, Romo still is elite!! He only threw 1 interception!!! He's like Michael Jordan - sometimes he throws an interception, but he also won 6 championships! Tony Romo won 6 championships! He's elite! Tebow sucks! USC USC USC!!! ahhhhHHHH!!!!"
I like the Ravens. Until Dallas realizes how good DeMarco Murray is they'll continue to lose these tough games. Baltimore 23-17.
Bills (2-3) @ Cardinals (4-1)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5
Actual Line: ARZ by 5
Well so much for Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. Both guys are on IR, so now it's William Powell getting the start. That dude doesn't even have a Wikipedia page, so he must be fairly irrelevant. It's funny to me that he'll probably start for tens of millions of fantasy football teams, and nobody knows what he looks like or anything about him. It's also funny that he'll either run for less than 20 yards or more than 250, with no chance to be in the middle. I like Buffalo to pull the upset here, or at least keep it close. In the midst of their 4-0 start, everyone forgot that the Cardinals have the league's worst O-line. Nine sacks against the Rams and people started to remember. But this line is still inflated because of their fluky start to the season. In fact, I'll say Bills outright, 27-23.
Patriots (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4
(Flip...) Tails it is. Seahawks -4.
Giants (3-2) @ 49ers (4-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 6.5
With as awesome as the Giants are on the road, I'm taking these points gleefully. SF by 2.
Vikings (4-1) @ Redskins (2-3)
Predicted Line: Griffin?
Actual Line: Sounds like RG3 will play, so the line should be WAS by about 3
If RG3 can't play, every indication is that Kirk Cousins has beat out Rex Grossman for the backup role. That would be awesome to see. But it sounds like RG3 had a "mild" concussion, whatever that means, and he'll probably start. If he does, I'm saying the Redskins will rally around him and the Vikes will wilt on the road. If RG3 does not play, let's call the line MIN by 3, and I like Washington to pull the upset straight up.
By the way, with the awful year that Cam Newton is having, how much longer do we have to wait before we ask who will end up being the best QB from the 2011 draft class? Ponder looks fantastic; Locker and Dalton look solid; and Gabbert is actually improving. Cam has a huge early lead, but I think Locker and Ponder could pass him by the end of this year.
Packers (2-3) @ Texans (5-0)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 3
My favorite football website used to be walterfootball.com. Unfortunately, that site has completely fallen to crap as Walt tries to be funny and is tragically unfunny. However, he still provides a few nuggets of good wisdom. For example:
Rodgers is 9-5 ATS as an underdog.
Rodgers is 10-4 ATS after a loss.
Rodgers is 18-9 ATS on the road.
Granted, Rodgers is good against the spread as a favorite, at home, after a win, pretty much always. But I really like getting points with him, even if it's just 3. I am not bailing on the Packers yet. In fact, I still like my Super Bowl pick (Pats over Pack), because both teams have somehow snuck under the radar. I'll say Green Bay wins outright, 24-20, and leaves Atlanta as the only unbeaten.
Broncos (2-3) @ Chargers (3-2)
Predicted Line: SD by 2.5
Actual Line: SD by 1.5
This is one of those week 6 games with huge playoff implications. If San Diego can get the win, they control the division. But on a Monday Night, is there anybody you can trust more than Peyton Manning? Broncos 37-27.
Go Lions. Let's not suck this week.
Also, go Tigers tonight. Game 5, win or go home. I have a great feeling that Verlander throws a 15-strikeout no-hitter in a game that becomes immortalized. I also think Verlander might get worked for some tough at-bats and only last 7 innings, and then the bullpen will ruin our season. After Jose Valverde's epic failure last night (he blew a 2 run lead in the 9th, you can say whatever crap you want about the A's being clutch and magical but that was a crappy closer having a crappy game and nothing else), does that mean we can finally get a new closer next year? How bout Albuquerque? I'm ready to see what Bruce Rondon (AAA closer) can do with his 102MPH stuff. Heck, Benoit would be a better closer, except that it takes him 95 seconds between pitches. Anyway, you can take Valverde, Delmon Young and Jim Leyland and send them all to Antarctica and we'll be a better baseball team effective immediately. I really hope we win tonight so we can take our shot at the super overrated Yankees and their lousy pitching staff, but I think there is a silver lining if we lose: Leyland will be history. Either way, there's no better spot than having the best pitcher in baseball pitching the deciding game. Verlander's going to need a shutout because we can't expect our offense to produce more than 2 or 3 runs the way they are playing.
Peace out.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Week 5 Picks
7-8 ATS last week and 8-7 straight up. Lions played awful and my fantasy teams went 0-4 ... also, I am the lowest scoring overall team in 2 of those leagues. So I'm pretty much sick of this season already.
Good news is -- the Tigers made the playoffs, Miggy won the Triple Crown (and soon to be MVP), Verlander has about a 50/50 shot at the Cy Young, and we're totally healthy heading into the 1st round and might actually win a series or two, though not if Leyland has anything to say about it.
So I'm now 26-35-2 against the spread and 31-32 straight up. Here are my crappy week 5 picks:
Cardinals (4-0) @ Rams (2-2)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: ARZ by 2
Two teams that are tricky to figure out.
St. Louis should have beat Detroit week 1, but should have lost to Washington week 2. Jeff Fisher has the defense playing great -- ranking in the top 15 in yards and points allowed -- but the offense still stinks - 27th overall.
The Cards are undefeated with a fluke win in Foxboro (if they played that game 20 times, Arizona would have won once), an OT win against crappy Miami, and a very close win against Seattle. So while they are technically 4-0, they could easily be 2-2 or even 1-3.
It's both team's strength against the other's weakness, as a couple of anemic offenses face two surprisingly dominant defenses. I doubt either team scores more than 20 points, but I do like Arizona to win because they have the only real playmaker in this contest - Fitzgerald - and because Steven Jackson's hamstring will reduce his effectiveness. So I'll say Cards go to 5-0 with a 20-17 win, and cover the 3 points.
Falcons (4-0) @ Redskins (2-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3.5
Actual Line: ATL by 3
Pretty sure I'm 0-4 against the spread on Redskins games. They've been all over the place -- beating the Saints, losing to the Rams, barely beat Tampa ... Hilariously, Alfred Morris is on pace for over 1,500 rushing yards. And Roy Helu, the one-time 4th round fantasy pick, is no longer part of the team. But RG3 has been fantastic, and Washington ranks as a top 5 offense in both points and yards. I give 99% of the credit to the quarterback, and 1% to the rest of the players. 0% credit goes to Mike Shanahan, by the way.
With Orakpo and Carriker lost for the season, the Skins won't be able to put any pressure on Matt Ryan (the MVP through 4 weeks), and he'll have another huge day. Falcons 34-27.
*Speaking of Matt Ryan ... after last week's demoralizing Lions' loss, FOX switched over to the end of the Falcons-Panthers game. Atlanta flew down the field and won on a last second field goal. Matt Ryan went absolutely nuts, like a gladiator who just killed a tiger with his barehands. It looked like his neck was going to explode, and then he screamed "Get the f*&k off our field!" in the direction of the Panthers' sideline. At that moment, I realized that in approximately 5 seconds, Matt Ryan showed more emotion and passion and desire to win than I have seen from Matt Stafford in over 3 years. It made me realize the Lions are not going to the playoffs this year, and I have been subtly mourning that fact all week.
Dolphins (1-3) @ Bengals (3-1)
Predicted Line: CIN by 4
Actual Line: CIN by 4
Watch out for Cincy. They've won 3 straight and now get Tannehill and Weeden the next two weeks. They'll likely be 5-1 soon. The tough part of the schedule looms, but if they can pull a couple upsets, they'll find their way back to the playoffs. AJ Green is leading the league in receiving yards (sorry, Brian Hartline doesn't count), and I think it's safe to say that AJ and Megatron are leaps better than any other receivers in the league right now. Still not a big Andy Dalton fan, but the Bengals are winning their easy games so far, so they've gotta be taken seriously as a wildcard team.
Miami is due for a blowout. They currently rank #1 in rush defense and that's not going to keep up. Maybe Green-Ellis runs for 150 here. I'll take Cincy, 28-13.
Packers (2-2) @ Colts (1-2)
Predicted Line: GB by 6.5
Actual Line: GB by 7
Is something off with the Packers this year? Why are they only 16th in passing yards and 19th in points? Is something wrong with Rodgers ... or is it simply because they played 3 brutal defenses (San Fran, Chicago, Seattle)? My gut is telling me that against Indy - maybe the worst defense in the league - Rodgers will silence all that talk and put up a QB rating upwards of 130. Maybe something like 25/32, 350 yards, 4 TDs ... and they'll coast to a 35-17 win.
Ravens (3-1) @ Chiefs (1-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5
Actual Line: BAL by 6
I keep waiting for Baltimore's dud game where everyone says "Oh yeah, they lost Terrell Suggs, I guess their defense isn't the same anymore." Maybe facing the #1 rushing offense will cause such a game? Or maybe they'll put 9 in the box and force Matt Cassel to throw? Who knows. Also, why is the Chiefs defense so bad? Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson ... and yet they're giving up 34 points per game. Weird.
I'm thinking this game stays low-scoring and KC pulls the upset, 20-13.
Brown (0-4) @ Giants (2-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 10.5
Actual Line: NYG by 9
Cleveland has lost 10 straight games. Excluding wins against Gabbert, Whitehurst, Henne, Kerry Collins and Jimmy Claussen ... they've lost 22 straight. But the Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, while the Browns are actually keeping road games close. So what the heck. I'll take the points. Giants 31-24.
Eagles (3-1) @ Steelers (1-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3.5
Actual Line: PIT by 3.5
Of the 32 current NFL coaches, if I could choose any of them to take over the Lions, I'd probably go with Mike Tomlin. (Conversely, Jim Schwartz might be my last choice.) The point is, great coaches coming off a bye are usually pretty good bets. Especially with Polamalu and Harrison returning from injuries. And Mendenhall should play his first game. I'll go Steelers 31-23.
Seahawks (2-2) @ Panthers (1-3)
Predicted Line: CAR by 2.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3
Lot of conflicting trends and stats. When in doubt, go with the team you actually think is better. Carolina 27-14.
Bears (3-1) @ Jaguars (1-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 7
Actual Line: CHI by 5.5
A few reasons to take Chicago:
-In two home games, Jacksonville has scored just 10 and 7 points.
-The Bears' D ranks 3rd against the run. If they can slow down MJD, they'll hold Jacksonville to no more than 13 points.
-Jacksonville, on the other hand, ranks 30th against the run. Matt Forte can destroy them early, setting up the play-action, which is Jay Cutler's only friend.
Bears lead 10-6 at halftime, but end up winning 38-13.
Titans (1-3) @ Vikings (3-1)
Predicted Line: MIN by 4.5
Actual Line: MIN by 6
Okay, since there is no Lions game this week I'll guess I'll put my Lions-Vikings thoughts here. First, a question: how seriously do we have to take the 3-1 Vikings? They beat almighty San Francisco, but other than that they only beat Blaine Gabbert in OT, and the lackluster Lions. If they can take care of Tennessee this week and go to 4-1, they then have five straight winnable NFC games (@WAS, ARZ, TB, @SEA, DET) before their bye. Realistically, Minnesota could very well be 7-3 heading into the tough part of their schedule. Even if they get swept by Green Bay, they have a real shot to be 10-6 or 9-7 and contend for a wildcard. In other words, Detroit is in danger of being last in the NFC North.
So I don't want to say much about the Lions pitiful effort last Sunday, but here are my bullet point thoughts...
Go Lions.
Quick Tigers preview:
Game 1 : 6pm Saturday
Against the Oakland A's
The A's suck. I can't figure out how they made the playoffs.
If you made a list of the 10 best players in this series, it would be a list of the 10 best Tigers.
Not only did Oakland lead the AL in strikeouts this year, but they set an AL record with 1,387 strikeouts, shattering the previous record by over 60. That's 8.5 strikeouts per game.
Their pitching staff also sucks. It's 5 rookies. Literally. They do have a really good bullpen though.
They didn't have a single player hit .300 (Detroit had 4), and their best power hitter batted just .242. In fact, Oakland's best offensive player was a rookie, Cuban Yoenis Cespedes, who you may remember from last offseason, when Detroit almost got him. That dude hit .292 with power and 19 steals. You gotta watch out for Coco Crisp (I still can't believe that's a real person), who stole 39 bases. They've also got a youngster named Jemile Weeks, who can't hit worth a lick but drew a ton of walks. But the guy to worry about is Josh Reddick, with his 32 homers, 85 RBI, and 150 strikeouts. He's an all-or-nothing guy, and we can't let him beat us with home runs.
Verlander pitches game 1, which should be the perfect concoction for about 12 strikeouts and a shutout, provided the bullpen doesn't blow the game. Oakland doesn't have a single starting pitcher with "ace" stuff, but they are all pretty solid. Then again, Detroit's offense tends to do worse against terrible pitchers, so I almost wish Oakland had good pitching.
Either way, our pitching should get us through the first series. We got lucky drawing Oakland at home. Let's home Texas loses the wildcard playoff game, because anytime the best team in the AL doesn't make the playoffs, it's a bonus.
Go Tigers.
Good news is -- the Tigers made the playoffs, Miggy won the Triple Crown (and soon to be MVP), Verlander has about a 50/50 shot at the Cy Young, and we're totally healthy heading into the 1st round and might actually win a series or two, though not if Leyland has anything to say about it.
So I'm now 26-35-2 against the spread and 31-32 straight up. Here are my crappy week 5 picks:
Cardinals (4-0) @ Rams (2-2)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: ARZ by 2
Two teams that are tricky to figure out.
St. Louis should have beat Detroit week 1, but should have lost to Washington week 2. Jeff Fisher has the defense playing great -- ranking in the top 15 in yards and points allowed -- but the offense still stinks - 27th overall.
The Cards are undefeated with a fluke win in Foxboro (if they played that game 20 times, Arizona would have won once), an OT win against crappy Miami, and a very close win against Seattle. So while they are technically 4-0, they could easily be 2-2 or even 1-3.
It's both team's strength against the other's weakness, as a couple of anemic offenses face two surprisingly dominant defenses. I doubt either team scores more than 20 points, but I do like Arizona to win because they have the only real playmaker in this contest - Fitzgerald - and because Steven Jackson's hamstring will reduce his effectiveness. So I'll say Cards go to 5-0 with a 20-17 win, and cover the 3 points.
Falcons (4-0) @ Redskins (2-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3.5
Actual Line: ATL by 3
Pretty sure I'm 0-4 against the spread on Redskins games. They've been all over the place -- beating the Saints, losing to the Rams, barely beat Tampa ... Hilariously, Alfred Morris is on pace for over 1,500 rushing yards. And Roy Helu, the one-time 4th round fantasy pick, is no longer part of the team. But RG3 has been fantastic, and Washington ranks as a top 5 offense in both points and yards. I give 99% of the credit to the quarterback, and 1% to the rest of the players. 0% credit goes to Mike Shanahan, by the way.
With Orakpo and Carriker lost for the season, the Skins won't be able to put any pressure on Matt Ryan (the MVP through 4 weeks), and he'll have another huge day. Falcons 34-27.
*Speaking of Matt Ryan ... after last week's demoralizing Lions' loss, FOX switched over to the end of the Falcons-Panthers game. Atlanta flew down the field and won on a last second field goal. Matt Ryan went absolutely nuts, like a gladiator who just killed a tiger with his barehands. It looked like his neck was going to explode, and then he screamed "Get the f*&k off our field!" in the direction of the Panthers' sideline. At that moment, I realized that in approximately 5 seconds, Matt Ryan showed more emotion and passion and desire to win than I have seen from Matt Stafford in over 3 years. It made me realize the Lions are not going to the playoffs this year, and I have been subtly mourning that fact all week.
Dolphins (1-3) @ Bengals (3-1)
Predicted Line: CIN by 4
Actual Line: CIN by 4
Watch out for Cincy. They've won 3 straight and now get Tannehill and Weeden the next two weeks. They'll likely be 5-1 soon. The tough part of the schedule looms, but if they can pull a couple upsets, they'll find their way back to the playoffs. AJ Green is leading the league in receiving yards (sorry, Brian Hartline doesn't count), and I think it's safe to say that AJ and Megatron are leaps better than any other receivers in the league right now. Still not a big Andy Dalton fan, but the Bengals are winning their easy games so far, so they've gotta be taken seriously as a wildcard team.
Miami is due for a blowout. They currently rank #1 in rush defense and that's not going to keep up. Maybe Green-Ellis runs for 150 here. I'll take Cincy, 28-13.
Packers (2-2) @ Colts (1-2)
Predicted Line: GB by 6.5
Actual Line: GB by 7
Is something off with the Packers this year? Why are they only 16th in passing yards and 19th in points? Is something wrong with Rodgers ... or is it simply because they played 3 brutal defenses (San Fran, Chicago, Seattle)? My gut is telling me that against Indy - maybe the worst defense in the league - Rodgers will silence all that talk and put up a QB rating upwards of 130. Maybe something like 25/32, 350 yards, 4 TDs ... and they'll coast to a 35-17 win.
Ravens (3-1) @ Chiefs (1-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5
Actual Line: BAL by 6
I keep waiting for Baltimore's dud game where everyone says "Oh yeah, they lost Terrell Suggs, I guess their defense isn't the same anymore." Maybe facing the #1 rushing offense will cause such a game? Or maybe they'll put 9 in the box and force Matt Cassel to throw? Who knows. Also, why is the Chiefs defense so bad? Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson ... and yet they're giving up 34 points per game. Weird.
I'm thinking this game stays low-scoring and KC pulls the upset, 20-13.
Brown (0-4) @ Giants (2-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 10.5
Actual Line: NYG by 9
Cleveland has lost 10 straight games. Excluding wins against Gabbert, Whitehurst, Henne, Kerry Collins and Jimmy Claussen ... they've lost 22 straight. But the Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, while the Browns are actually keeping road games close. So what the heck. I'll take the points. Giants 31-24.
Eagles (3-1) @ Steelers (1-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3.5
Actual Line: PIT by 3.5
Of the 32 current NFL coaches, if I could choose any of them to take over the Lions, I'd probably go with Mike Tomlin. (Conversely, Jim Schwartz might be my last choice.) The point is, great coaches coming off a bye are usually pretty good bets. Especially with Polamalu and Harrison returning from injuries. And Mendenhall should play his first game. I'll go Steelers 31-23.
Seahawks (2-2) @ Panthers (1-3)
Predicted Line: CAR by 2.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3
Lot of conflicting trends and stats. When in doubt, go with the team you actually think is better. Carolina 27-14.
Bears (3-1) @ Jaguars (1-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 7
Actual Line: CHI by 5.5
A few reasons to take Chicago:
-In two home games, Jacksonville has scored just 10 and 7 points.
-The Bears' D ranks 3rd against the run. If they can slow down MJD, they'll hold Jacksonville to no more than 13 points.
-Jacksonville, on the other hand, ranks 30th against the run. Matt Forte can destroy them early, setting up the play-action, which is Jay Cutler's only friend.
Bears lead 10-6 at halftime, but end up winning 38-13.
Titans (1-3) @ Vikings (3-1)
Predicted Line: MIN by 4.5
Actual Line: MIN by 6
Okay, since there is no Lions game this week I'll guess I'll put my Lions-Vikings thoughts here. First, a question: how seriously do we have to take the 3-1 Vikings? They beat almighty San Francisco, but other than that they only beat Blaine Gabbert in OT, and the lackluster Lions. If they can take care of Tennessee this week and go to 4-1, they then have five straight winnable NFC games (@WAS, ARZ, TB, @SEA, DET) before their bye. Realistically, Minnesota could very well be 7-3 heading into the tough part of their schedule. Even if they get swept by Green Bay, they have a real shot to be 10-6 or 9-7 and contend for a wildcard. In other words, Detroit is in danger of being last in the NFC North.
So I don't want to say much about the Lions pitiful effort last Sunday, but here are my bullet point thoughts...
- Fire the special teams coach. Now. Yesterday. Get rid of him, replace him with anyone. I'll take Stan Kwan back in a heartbeat. 4 TDs in two weeks. You've got to be kidding.
- Bench, trade or cut Brandon Pettigrew. He is not as good as Tony Scheffler. Just because Stafford targets him 12 times a game does not make him a good player. He is big, but that's his only skill. How many easy TDs has he dropped in his 3 year career? A dozen? He's also the slowest skill position player in the entire NFL.
- How about this: trade our 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks for an elite cornerback. Or, trade Nick Fairley and Mikel Leshoure for a cornerback. Heck, trade anyone outside of Stafford, Calvin and Suh and get yourself a cornerback. Now. We can't keep playing with this secondary. Do you realize we still haven't faced a good receiver yet this year, and yet we rank 26th in completion percentage allowed, 26th in QB rating allowed, 19th in yards per attempt, and we are the only team in the NFC without a single interception? What's going to happen when we face Marshall and Jennings twice apiece? What about Thanksgiving - is Andre Johnson going to have 30 catches against us?
- One of the FOX commentators (I think it was Brian Billick) said that if he could start an NFL team with any offensive player, he would take Percy Harvin. Later, he retracted and said he meant not including quarterbacks. Okay ... so you would take Harvin -- the guy who openly quit on his coach, suffers from migraines, has a history of foot injuries and marijuana suspensions, was on a 3-13 team last year, and isn't even 6 feet tall ... over Calvin, Fitzgerald, Foster, Joe Thomas, Ray Rice, Gronk, McCoy, Jake Long ... not to mention Harvin's teammate, Adrian Peterson, who might be the best running back in the past 15 years. Reeeeeeallly?
If the Lions offered to trade Calvin to the Vikings for Harvin straight-up, how long would it take Minnesota's GM to say yes? .00001 milliseconds? What if Detroit said "You can have Calvin for Harvin if you throw in your 1st round pick for the next 15 years?" Wouldn't the Vikings still take the deal? How can Brian Billick (or whoever it was) say something so stupid and not get mercilessly ridiculed for it? They should have cut to Los Angeles for a gamebreak and just had Curt Menefee mock him for 2 straight minutes.
I get his point ... Harvin is multi-functional, he can return kicks, play out of the slot, even run the ball. But come on. He doesn't even demand a double team. 3 catches for 22 yards last week. Whoa, watch out. 21st overall in receiving yards last year. Only scored 6 TDs. Calvin had that 3 weeks into the season. Come on Billick. - Matt Stafford doesn't look good. He has forgotten how to navigate the pass rush.
- Mikel Leshoure was even worse. There was an invisible alien forcefield 2 yards past the line of scrimmage that he kept running into. Either that or he owes money to some mobster who threatened to kill his family if he had a single run of more than 2 yards. Then when he did accidentally have one run for 10 yards, he remembered the mobster's warning and promptly fumbled the ball.
- Fortunately, Scott Linehan was devoutly committed to those worthless 2 yard runs, which allowed Stafford the chance to throw on 3rd and 8 on every single possession of the first 3 quarters. Then, when the Lions kicked into desperation mode, Stafford decided to check down to Joycke Bell on every play (where the heck did that guy come from) and make sure we didn't have time to score enough points. It really seemed like the Lions entire offense was trying to lose.
- Stafford was sacked 5 times, and I didn't think the O-line was really at fault. Stafford just wasn't going through his reads quickly, and wasn't taking chances, and wasn't stepping up in the pocket. He was letting the pass rush come to him, instead of evading it with his feet. When he actually did let go of the ball, the receivers all took turns dropping it.
- Dwight "Bill" Bentley is a real piece of crap. He's the cornerback we drafted in the 3rd round from Louisiana Lafeyete. Remember, we took Ryan Broyles in the 2nd because, clearly, a 5th string receiver who hasn't played a single down this year is more important than a starting cornerback who commits the same pass interference penalty on pothead Jerome Simpson 3 times.
- Just a real shit performance from almost everybody. Suh was bad, VandenBosch was bad, Fairley was bad, Stafford and Leshoure were terrible, and the special teams kick coverage should all be cut. A few exceptions:
- It goes without saying, Calvin was great. No problems there. When he took that helmet-to-helmet shot courtesy of Chad Greenway in the 4th quarter, I thought it was the Madden Curse. But Calvin got up and kept playing, amazingly. Greenway is probably going to get hit with a fine, but I hope he doesn't. You could tell it was accidental and he felt terrible about it.
- DeAndre Levy and Stephen Tulloch were both excellent. Racing to AP, making great tackles, and keeping the tight ends from doing anything in the middle of the field. Granted, AP had 102 yards, but it could have been a lot more. Our linebackers are the strength of our defense, not the D-line. Who would have thought.
- Hanson was money. 12 for 13 this year. I wished we could stop settling for field goals, but at least Hanson is making them. Only "Greg the Leg" Zuerlein has scored more points this year. Speaking of whom, that dude has already kicked 4 field goals of 50+ yards. And he's a rookie. We could be looking at the eventual best placekicker in NFL history.
- Let's keep things in perspective a little - the Lions had more yards, more first downs, more time of possession, and scored more points on offense. If not for two freaking touchdowns on special teams, the Lions would have won.
Back to the pick. I'm not real excited about laying 6 points with the Vikings, but the Titans have been awful in every phase of the game this year, except of course for those five 60-yard TDs against Detroit. I will say Vikings 28-20.
Broncos (2-2) @ Patriots (2-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 7
The Peyton Manning Reunion Tour continues. First he got his old playoff nemesis, the Steelers. Then his old division nemesis, the Texans. Now, his greatest career nemesis, Tom Brady.
Both teams are better than a 2-2 record indicates, and it's a shame that one of them will fall to 2-3. I think the Pats at home will prevail, but they don't have the defense to make this a blowout. Pats 30-27.
Bills (2-2) @ 49ers (3-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 8.5
Predicted Line: SF by 8.5
Actual Line: SF by 10
Niners won 34-0 last week, and I think we see a similar result here. Bills' defense has been terrible; they won't be able to slow down the Niners balanced offense. And Buffalo won't be able to run on San Fran, forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick to add to his 7 INTs. I'll take San Fran in another blowout, 27-6.
Chargers (3-1) @ Saints (0-4)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: NO by 4
Wow. I haven't missed a spread by 6 points in a long time. Hmm... I could see Saints by 2.5 or 3, but giving more than a field goal? For a winless team with no defense and no coach?
I guess the bleeding has to stop eventually. And San Diego's secondary is not very good. Eh, what the heck: Saints 34-20.
If Ryan Matthews actually scores 3 touchdowns, as NFL.com is projecting he will for my fantasy team, I will literally burn my house down, push my car off a cliff, and dedicate my life to Islamic jihad. That's how confident I am that Matthews will not score 3 touchdowns. I really wish NFL.com would stop offering such ludicrous projections. They make me irrationally angry.
Texans (4-0) @ Jets (2-2)
Predicted Line: HOU by 8.5
Predicted Line: HOU by 8.5
Actual Line: HOU by 9
So much for all that Revis/Ewing Theory crap. The Jets are done. Rex Ryan might not make it to the end of the season. After two straight blowout losses at home, it's definitely going to be Tebow Time. Texans 44-10.
Go Lions.
Quick Tigers preview:
Game 1 : 6pm Saturday
Against the Oakland A's
The A's suck. I can't figure out how they made the playoffs.
If you made a list of the 10 best players in this series, it would be a list of the 10 best Tigers.
Not only did Oakland lead the AL in strikeouts this year, but they set an AL record with 1,387 strikeouts, shattering the previous record by over 60. That's 8.5 strikeouts per game.
Their pitching staff also sucks. It's 5 rookies. Literally. They do have a really good bullpen though.
They didn't have a single player hit .300 (Detroit had 4), and their best power hitter batted just .242. In fact, Oakland's best offensive player was a rookie, Cuban Yoenis Cespedes, who you may remember from last offseason, when Detroit almost got him. That dude hit .292 with power and 19 steals. You gotta watch out for Coco Crisp (I still can't believe that's a real person), who stole 39 bases. They've also got a youngster named Jemile Weeks, who can't hit worth a lick but drew a ton of walks. But the guy to worry about is Josh Reddick, with his 32 homers, 85 RBI, and 150 strikeouts. He's an all-or-nothing guy, and we can't let him beat us with home runs.
Verlander pitches game 1, which should be the perfect concoction for about 12 strikeouts and a shutout, provided the bullpen doesn't blow the game. Oakland doesn't have a single starting pitcher with "ace" stuff, but they are all pretty solid. Then again, Detroit's offense tends to do worse against terrible pitchers, so I almost wish Oakland had good pitching.
Either way, our pitching should get us through the first series. We got lucky drawing Oakland at home. Let's home Texas loses the wildcard playoff game, because anytime the best team in the AL doesn't make the playoffs, it's a bonus.
Go Tigers.