Another very average week. 7-7-2 against the spread, 11-5 straight up. That's pretty much automatic lately.
Season:
116-116-11 (50.0%) ATS
149-90 (62.3%) straight up
This playoffs are set in the AFC, thanks to an unbelievably bad performance by the Steelers. Somehow the Bengals have made the postseason two years in a row, despite the fact that I think the Lions could beat them 8 times out of 10. Andy Dalton does not impress me at all; in fact I could see his career having a Sanchez-like plummet in a couple years. Remember, Mark Sanchez won 4 playoff games in his first two seasons, and now he's considered barely a 3rd stringer.
In other news, Tebow is headed to Jacksonville this offseason, where he'll have a chance to compete for the starting job. My prediction - he'll be named the starter early in training camp, the Jags will build an offense around him (new coach, new linemen, new everything), and between a good running game and good defense, the Jags will go 8-8 and flirt with the playoffs, while Justin Blackmon has a miserable time and asks for a trade. If you thought Tebowmania peaked in Denver, wait til Jacksonville wins a few games and ESPN starts shooting off live fireworks on Sportscenter.
The Lions lost again, but really they won, as Calvin went for 225 and established one very incredible record. It was clear the fans, coaches and players wanted the record more than they wanted the win. And they got it. It was more than just a silver lining on a bad season; it was a historic, monumental, unforgettable milestone in the career of a guy who will become one of the best players to ever play. As Bears' Pro Bowl CB Charles Tillman said this week, "He's the LeBron of football."
It looks like AP is going to fall just short of Eric Dickerson's record, barring a 200 yard game, which probably means Peyton Manning will win MVP. The D-MVP battle is a tight competition between three pass-rushers who were rookies last year: JJ Watt, Von Miller, and Aldon Smith. Each guy has a reasonable chance to win it, as they rank 1, 2, and 3 in sacks. In my opinion, Aldon is out because he's the 3rd or 4th best player on his own defense, and Von should win it over JJ because he's more important to his team; without Von, Denver's defense falls apart. Without Watt, Houston still dominates. At least that's my thinking.
Coach of the year could go in about 10 different directions. Pretty much every single coach is either a candidate for this award, or a candidate to be fired. There's almost no middle ground. I think Chuck Pagano will win it for sentimental reasons, and it will be a cool story. But I'd give it to either Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, or Mike Smith. Heck, Pete Carroll would also be deserving. Yuck.
The NFC playoffs is down to one final spot, and it could go to Minnesota, Chicago, Washington, or the Giants. Dallas can't win the wildcard, but they can win the division with a win over the Redskins, which puts the Redskins in the running for the wildcard, if they get loses from everybody else involved.
Chances are, the Vikings will lose to Green Bay (who has something to play for) and stupid Chicago will end up in the playoffs, unless somehow Detroit musters up enough balls to actually play against them.
Here are the week 17 picks, and a few final predictions:
Bucs (6-9) @ Falcons (13-2)
Predicted Line: ?
Actual Line: None
Not sure if Atlanta's starters will play or not, and thus there's no line posted. My hunch is that Atlanta will treat this like a preseason game, and play Ryan and Co. for the first quarter. I'll set my own line at ATL by 3, and I'll say the Falcons backups aren't able to stop the high-octane Bucs. Tampa 27-23.
Bears (9-6) @ Lions (4-11)
Line: CHI by 3
Pick: Lions by 13.
Jets (6-9) @ Bills (5-10)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
How annoying is it that during week 17 when all sorts of playoff scenarios abound, the only thing they're talking about on ESPN radio is the Jets? It's very annoying. I don't care if Rex Ryan plays quarterback. The Jets suck.
But, so do the Bills. My guess is the Jets will have more fight left in them than Buffalo. Let's say Jets 13-10.
Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (9-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 3
Oops. Didn't realize both teams have virtually nothing to play for. Baltimore can't get a first round bye, and Cincy can't win the division. Both teams will be playing to avoid injuries. Watching the Bengals/Steelers last week (with a houseful of knucklehead Steelers fans), I learned that Cincy absolutely sucks, especially on offense, and that they shouldn't be trusted against anybody. Pittsburgh had about 50 chances to win that game and make the playoffs. But don't think I'm not rejoicing in their demise.
I like Baltimore by 6.
Jags (2-13 @ Titans (5-10)
Line: TEN by 4
Pick: Jags by 3
Texans (12-3) @ Colts (10-5)
Line: HOU by 7
Pick: Colts by 2
Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (7-8)
Line: NO by 5.5
Pick: Saints by 4
Eagles (4-11) @ Giants (8-7)
Line: NYG by 7
Pick: NYG by 13
Browns (5-10) @ Steelers (7-8)
Line: PIT by 11
Pick: PIT by 6
Chiefs (2-13) @ Broncos (12-3)
Line: DEN by 17
Pick: Broncos by 20
Packers (11-4) @ Vikings (9-6)
Line: GB by 3.5
Pick: Packers by 4
Dolphins (7-8) @ Pats (11-4)
Line: NE by 10
Pick: NE by 35
Raiders (4-11) @ Chargers (6-9)
Line: SD by 10
Pick: OAK by 2
Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (10-4)
Line: SF by 17
Pick: SF by 23.
Rams (7-7-1) @ Seahawks (10-5)
Line: SEA by 11
Pick: Seahawks by 6
Cowboys (8-7) @ Redskins (9-6)
Line: WAS by 3.5
Pick: DAL by 3
Coaches fired on Monday:
6 (Reid, Norv, Crennel, Shurmur, Gailey, Rivera)
Additional coaches fired by end of January:
3 (Rex Ryan, Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith)
Super Bowl pick:
I still like my preseason pick: Patriots over Packers.
Go Lions!
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Te'o or Milliner? ... Plus week 16's picks
That means the Lions are assured one of the top overall prospects in this draft. To me, it comes down to two players:
Manti Te'o, inside linebacker, Notre Dame
6'2", 255lbs, senior, born in Hawaii
Heisman trophy runner-up
Tabbed as "the next Ray Lewis"
DeMarcus "Dee" Milliner, cornerback, Alabama
6'1", 200lbs, junior, born in Alabama
Best shutdown cornerback in NCAA
Could be the next Darrelle Revis
There are other elite prospects that warrant consideration in the top 10. Certainly OLB Jarvis Jones from Georgia, but he'll probably go in the top 3. Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel will be the first offensive tackle selected, but can Detroit draft back-to-back tackles when the defense is in shambles? There are a few great DTs and pass rushers, but if Schwartz takes another D-linemen, it's going to really piss people off, and rightly so.
So to me, the decision comes down to linebacker or cornerback. Te'o or Milliner. Who will it be?
According to ESPN's Draft Board, Te'o is the #7 overall prospect and Milliner is #11. At CBSsports.com, Milliner is #4 and Te'o is #5. Drafttek.com ranks Milliner at #5 and Te'o at #7.
From my own perspective, watching Youtube clips, reading articles, watching interviews ... these might be the two most NFL-ready players in the entire class. I'm a little surprised they're not ranked #1 and #2.
Both guys have almost no red flags. They have both showcased leadership skills, durability, consistency, intelligence, and a selfless team attitude. Te'o is stronger in the intangibles (he's basically a hybrid of Tebow's personality with Patrick Willis' skills) but Milliner isn't exactly a low-life. He's made it through the corrupt Alabama program without getting arrested, suspended, or accepting free tattoos. So either guy would improve the assholeish nature of the Lions.
What impressed me most about Te'o is his speed. Combined with great instincts and perfect tackling form, he is almost Polamalu-esque in the way he appears to cover the entire field and bring runners down with ease and pain. He has anchored an undefeated Irish team all year, been their emotional leader and best player, and he would be useful in an NFC North that feature AP and Forte.
However, Milliner is equally impressive to watch. His ball-coverage skills are already superior to any cornerback the Lions have employed since .... Dre Bly? Ray Crocket?? Dick LeBeau???? Both guys will be immediate starters and possibly Pro Bowlers in their rookie seasons, but Milliner appears to be the guy more likely to dominate the NFL right away. Sure-tackling linebackers are pretty common, but shtudown corners are a rarity. I know I'm prone to hyperbole at times, but his coverage skills can easily be compared to Darrelle Revis. He has that combination of strength, speed, acceleration, quick hands, intelligence, and size. To say he'd be an immediate upgrade over Chris Houston is an understatement.
Te'o would also become the Lions' best linebacker right away, but the gap between him and Stephen Tulloch would be minimal. Tulloch is a great player, and Te'o's presence would move Tulloch to outside linebacker, which might not be a good fit. The deciding factor will probably be what happens before the draft with our many free agents. Along with Avril, VandenBosch, Gosder, and many others, our two starting outside linebackers - Levy and Durant - are both unrestricted free agents. And both guys have played well enough to earn sizable contracts elsewhere. If we manage to retain either guy, it'll be surprising. That's why I think Te'o has a good chance at being the pick.
Unfortunately, Chris Houston is also unrestricted. If the Lions lose him, they need to draft Milliner, because cornerback depth is not something we have. Linebacker depth, on the other hand, is more promising; Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis supposedly are coming along nicely and ready to play.
Assuming the Lions aren't able to beat Atlanta or Chicago (a fair guess), we'll probably end up picking 4th or 5th overall. Both Te'o and Milliner should be available. Due to our hellish salary cap situation induced by Stafford, Calvin and Suh's massive deals, it'll be nearly impossible to retain any good players. Avril is gone, at least one of the linebackers is gone (maybe both), Delmas might leave if he's not franchised, and Houston is probably gone too. This could be one of those cases where you trade down and collect picks and try to meet multiple needs in one draft, but let's be honest, the Lions ability to find a starter in the 2nd round is minuscule at best. When you're looking at the future Patrick Willis and Darrelle Revis, you don't trade down for two Boss Baileys.
It's too early now to make a real prediction, especially since some unknown guy always flies up the draft board and becomes a top 5 pick in March, but if I had to lean one way now, I'd say Milliner.
Realistically, the Lions will probably take Keenan Allen, receiver from California, because, you know, you can never have enough offensive weapons.
Last week:
6-10 ATS
10-6 straight up
8-6 over/unders
Season:
109-109-9 (50.0%) ATS
138-85 (61.8%) straight up
19-10 over/unders (65.5%)
Let's hit the week 16 picks:
Falcons (12-2) @ Lions (4-10)
Saturday night - 8:30, ESPN
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 4.5
With Detroit getting embarrassed by nine-game-losing-streak Arizona, it's no surprise 85% of the public is betting on the road favorite. But I'm going the other way. Detroit will step up its game for a few reasons:
- This game is nationally televised, they want to spare themselves more embarrassment.
- They want to help Schwartz keep his job; for whatever reason, the team likes him.
- They hate Atlanta; remember all this nonsense?
- They love shootouts. Calvin will embrace the challenge of outshining Julio and Roddy.
- Calvin is gunning for a major, major record.
- Stafford needs 375 yards per game over the next 2 games for 5,000; he definitely wants it.
- Mostly, they want to prove they are better than 4-10, and how better to do it than beating a 12-2 team on national TV right before Christmas?
Unfortunately, Atlanta is better coached, better quarterbacked, smarter, more disciplined, has a great offensive line, commits the fewest penalties in the NFL, and they continually feed off their lack of national respect. Detroit may actually possess the most talented roster, but in terms of execution and gameplan, it's no contest.
I think Atlanta will win, but Detroit will find a way to make it interesting. Final score: 28-24, Falcons.
(Over 51)
Saints (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3
Dallas did what I figured they would do: kept themselves in the playoff hunt despite all odds. Thanks to a no-show from the Giants and Bears, Dallas is right in the mix. If Seattle loses to San Fran this week (likely) and Minnesota loses in Houston (also likely), Dallas will be right in contention.
But, as I said two weeks ago, Dallas was going to get back in the race only because they're Dallas and they create drama. They aren't actually getting into the playoffs. They're just way too undisciplined and dumb and they have too much Tony Romo. Plus, the Saints just won 41-0, so now's not the time to bet against Drew Brees. I'll say the Saints end the Cowboys season and officially commence the hyperactive "AHHH TONY ROMO AHHH" discussion. New Orleans 34-16.
(Under 51.5)
Titans (5-9) @ Packers (10-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 13
Green Bay has clinched the division, but they're still playing for a first-round bye. So they should come out with guns blazing and looking to rack up some points. Tennessee doesn't have the defense to slow them down. Packers 38-13.
(Over 46)
Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 7
With just two weeks to go, KC can't afford another win if they want to secure Geno Smith. So they should be in full-tank mode. Even if they weren't, I'm not sure they can score any points or stop anybody.
However, I'm taking the points, simply because 7 points is a few too many for a road favorite when that road favorite has a terrible defense and is going against Jamaal Charles. Let's say Colts 24-19.
(Over 41.5)
Bills (5-9) @ Dolphins (6-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 4.5
Not much time to write these ... sorry.
This looks like too many points ... Dolphins by 3.
Chargers (5-9) @ Jets (6-8)
Line: Jets by 1
I liked Bill Simmons' pick of Jets 4, Chargers 3. But since that would be a tie on the spread, I'll say Jets win 5-3 and cover.
Redskins (8-6) @ Eagles (4-10)
Line: WAS by 7
Redskins have something to play for, Eagles don't. RG3 makes a big final push for ROY. Skins 34-24.
Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)
Line: PIT by 3
Go Bengals!! But I doubt it. Steelers 24-20.
Rams (6-7-1) @ Bucs (6-8)
Line: TB by 3
Should be a close game. But Bucs have more offense. Tampa 30-26.
Raiders (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)
Line: CAR by 10
Carson is the king of garbage time. Gotta take the points. Panthers 27-20.
Patriots (10-4) @ Jags (2-12)
Line: NE by 15
Make it Pats by 30 and I would still take the favorites.
Vikings (8-6) @ Texans (12-2)
Line: HOU by 9
Christian Ponder has been more and more awful as the weeks go by, but AP keeps games close and will be single-mindedly focusing on another 200 yard game. I'll say Texans by 6.
Browns (5-9) @ Broncos (11-3)
Line: DEN by 14
Lot of huge lines this week. I'm counting on big games for Brady, Rodgers and Manning as they all cover 13+. With the MVP on the line, it makes sense for them to be padding their stats a little. I think Broncos rack up 30 in the first half and cruise.
Bears (8-6) @ Cardinals (5-9)
Line: CHI by 6
Last week was a fluke. Ryan Lindley is still the optimum guy to bet against. Bears by 20.
Giants (8-6) @ Ravens (9-5)
Line: Giants by 1
Who knows. Could flip coins all day and still have be 100% sure I'll get this pick wrong. I'll just take the home team; Ravens by 3.
49ers (10-3-1) @ Seahawks (9-5)
Line: SF by 1
As good as Seattle is at home, San Fran is just the better team. Plus they won in New England last week. And Colin Kaepernick .... I'll go Niners 20-13.
Go Lions. Merry Christmas.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
15
I'm really hoping to stay above .500 for the year's picks, but it might not be easy. I went an ugly 6-8-2 ATS and 9-7 straight up during this weird, weird week that saw the Steelers, Saints and Falcons get killed and the Seahawks win by 58 points.
Overall:
103-99-9 (50.9%) ATS
128-79 (61.8%) straight-up
Luck and Griffin continued their amazing rookie crusades with last-second wins, the Lions botched another winnable game, the Jets are still alive in the playoffs despite being horrendous, the Browns won by 23 points (their biggest win since 2003), Nick Foles was a stud, the Cowboys stayed alive, the Bucs died, and the MVP comes down to Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning, two guys that we didn't even think for sure were healthy enough to play this season.
Also ... Colin Kaepernick is going to be a star QB very soon, Tom Brady embarrassed the Texans so badly that JJ Watt could lose the D-MVP to Von Miller as a result, and Calvin Johnson and AP both inched closer to breaking a couple of incredible single-season yardage records. I picked the Niners-Dolphins game exactly (27-13), and went 11-4 in my first week of ever guessing the over/under on total scores. (Not bad!)
In Draft news, KC and Jacksonville essentially locked in the 1st and 2nd picks, with KC going 1st right now by virtue of the tiebreaker. (Maybe it won't be a QB after all ... Geno Smith stock is dropping). Detroit has a chance to pick as high as 3rd, or as low as 10th. Two stud players the Lions sorely need are in that range - CB Dee Milliner and LB Manti Te'o. I'm almost rooting for Detroit to lose to Arizona, but not really, because that's humiliating.
Here are my week 15 picks:
Bengals (7-6) @ Eagles (4-9)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 5
The 6th playoff spot in the AFC is basically going to come down to Pittsburgh or Cincy, unless both teams implode and the Jets sneak in. Philly, after losing eight straight, has found a leader in Nick Foles, who was stinking fantastic against Tampa. If the next few games go well for Foles, he'll be their starting QB in 2013, and he just might save Andy Reid's job.
I'm taking the Eagles for two reasons: they're a 5-point homedog, and Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to slow down AJ Green, who is really the only weapon Cincinnati has. Although Nnamdi has had a really bad year by his standards, he's still one of the few guys alive who can limit AJ Green. Bengals 23-20.
(Under 45.5)
Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 1
I'm pretty sure Atlanta's the better team, and should be favored by more than 1. This looks like a total overreaction spread. I'll say Falcons 28-23.
(Under 51)
Packers (9-3) @ Bears (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3
Another overreaction line. Everybody is freaking out about Brian Urlacher's injury, but Urlacher is barely the fifth best player on his own defense (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings). By contrast, Green Bay is still without Woodson and Matthews, who are both significantly better than Urlacher. I hate Chicago and Jay Cutler was awful last week, (almost had 2 pick-sixes), but they probably shouldn't be a 3 point underdog at home. That said, Green Bay is rolling and I've picked against the Bears all season, so why stop now. Packers 27-17.
(Over 42)
Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 1
Griffin is somewhere between questionable and probable. In the interests of winning ROY (not to mention they have an outside chance at the playoffs), he should definitely start. If he does, I'm taking Washington. If not, I'm probably still taking Washington. Cleveland winning 4 in a row isn't a scenario I can fathom.
Griffin is out; Kirk Cousins is starting. I guess I'll stick with the Redskins, 23-21.
Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 1
Actual Line: STL by 3
I managed to watch most of the Vikings-Bears game last week, and it's clear that Adrian Peterson is gunning for nothing less than Eric Dickerson's record. He needs 168 rushing yards per game over the next 3 games. Which means, he needs a big 200+ game and he'll get there. Could this be that game?
Common sense would lean towards no, because the Rams rank 6th against the run. Jeff Fisher has them playing excellent defense, only giving up 30 points twice, to QBs named Rodgers and Brady. The Rams are a tremendous 9-4 ATS this year, and Fisher has done more with less talent than any other coach in the league. Not sure who will win Coach of the Year ... Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, Belichick maybe ... but Fisher should at least be in the discussion. He won't win it, because the Rams aren't going to the playoffs, but he's done a great job.
Anyway, three observations concerning the Vikings:
1) Christian Ponder has clearly regressed. He was awful last week, as he's been awful for a while. Throwing off his back foot, missing open guys, panicking in the pocket. All with 9 guys in the box focused on AP. Pretty sad how his career began with so much potential and now it's tumbling to the ground. Oh well.
2) Matt Kalil is amazing. A very worthy top 5 pick last year. He held his own against a tough Bears' D-line, including Julius Peppers on several plays. It's clear how much Adrian Peterson appreciates him. And it's pretty clear he should be in the Pro Bowl.
3) The Vikings defense is crap. Other than Jared Allen of course. But that secondary looked as lost as the Lions'.
So I'm taking the Rams, I guess. I think AP runs for about 145 yards, but Ponder betrays him and the Rams win this one 26-20.
(Over 38.5)
Jaguars (2-11) @ Dolphins (5-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4.5
Actual Line: MIA by 7.5
Miami likes to lose low-scoring, with an average score of 16-20. Jacksonville likes to lose big, 13-27 on average.
So I'm not real sure what to do with this spread. I don't think Ryan Tannehill has earned the right to be favored by 7 against anyone. Chad Henne's the better QB in this game, and he's facing his former team, which might give him some added motivation. I guess I like the Jags to keep it close. Maybe 20-14, Dolphins.
(Under 37)
Bucs (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
I'm so sick of hearing about the Bounty thing. I hope I never hear about it again. Bucs 34-27.
(Over 53)
Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3
Pretty sure there's a rule about not betting against Peyton Manning when he's on an 8 game winning streak. Plus, Baltimore has been overrated all year, and it's finally catching up with them, as this could be their third straight loss. How about Broncos 31-20.
(Over 48)
Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10
I'm pretty sure Luck is good enough that he shouldn't be a 9 point dog against anyone. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure. Houston 27-24.
(Over 48)
Seahawks (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 6
Remember when that idiot Richard Sherman trash-talked Tom Brady back in week 6, and I said
"It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day."
Well, Sherman has turned out to be a better mailman that anyone expected. The 2011 5th round pick (taken a whopping 110 picks after Titus Young) is already being called the best shutdown cornerback in football. By a lot of people. Including: Pro Football Focus, Ron Jaworski, Bleacher Report, WalterFootball, New England Sports Network, and of course, Himself.
So from this point forward, we have to consider Sherman's impact when picking the games. That entire Seattle defense is kicking serious butt, but Sherman just held Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch and 2 yards, so he's their star right now. It goes to figure that he'll shut down Stevie Johnson, but the Bills' offense should still be able to move the ball a little. It's sad that Fred Jackson's season-ending injury is actually a good thing for Buffalo, because CJ Spiller is clearly the better runner, and they'll finally be forced to use him. Remember when Jackson got hurt early in the season and Spiller ran for 292 yards in 2 games?
On the flip side, Marshawn Lynch goes into Buffalo to face the team that drafted him 12th overall in 2007. I imagine Bills fans aren't too fond of him. He shmucked around for 3 years, got hurt, arrested, suspended, then was traded for a 4th round pick. Now, he's an undeniable stud and maybe a top 5 RB in the league. Crappy luck for Buffalo.
I just don't believe in taking Seattle on the road, and despite Buffalo's current 2-7 skid, I think they're playing better than their record indicates. But I will take the Seahawks outright, 16-13.
(Under 43)
Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 6.5
Sheesh. We really have the same record as a team that's lost 9 straight? The only good thing I can say about the 2012 Lions is that they have me really looking forward to baseball season.
Let's look at this by the matchups:
Worst offensive line in NFL history VS. Suh, Fairley, Avril = huge edge to Detroit.
Absolutely no running game VS. Detroit's pretty good linebackers = huge edge to Detroit.
John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, or recently acquired Brian Hoyer = huge, huge, huge win for Detroit.
Larry Fitzgerald VS. Chris Houtson = huge win for Arizona.
The rest of the Cardinals weapons VS. the Lions' secondary = crap against crap. Could go either way.
Cards' defensive line VS. Lions' O-line = decent edge to Arizona.
Stafford VS. a defense that can rush the passer pretty well and cover pretty well too = tie.
Calvin VS. Patrick Peterson = edge to Calvin, obviously, but Peterson is good.
Leshoure and Bell VS. 30th ranked rush defense = edge for Lions
Tony Scheffler, Mike Thomas and Kris Durham VS. Cards' secondary = edge to Arizona.
Ken Whisenhunt VS. Jim Schwartz = edge to Cardinals
Intangibles:
Larry Fitzgerald says the Cardinals have quit = edge for Lions.
Calvin Johnson's pursuit of single-season record = edge for Lions.
Both coaches trying to keep their jobs = tie.
Homefield advantage = edge to Cardinals
Lions feeling embarrassed, disrespected, angry = edge for Lions.
Cardinals just can't wait for this season end = edge for Lions.
4pm EST game = edge for Cardinals.
Just heard the official word. Ryan Lindley will start.
He was worse than numbers can possibly explain in his 3 starts (no offensive touchdowns, 3 defensive touchdowns), but I'm going to refrain from making fun of him because if any defense could give up a 300 yard, 3 TD game to Ryan Lindley, it would be the Lions. In fact, I'm almost positive that will happen.
I'll say Lions win, 31-21.
(Over 44)
Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3
Both teams were very impressive last week, but have found ways to lose close games all season. Carolina is the better team with the better QB and better coach, and I'm really, really sick of the Chargers after all the ways they ruined my fantasy season(s). Panthers 27-13.
(Under 45)
Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 2
This line probably dropped a point or two because of Dez Bryant's broken finger, which is stupid. Anyway, the guy who would have guarded Dez, Ike Tayor, is also out, as are Pittsburgh's #2 and #3 cornerbacks. The secondary is in shambles, which is why they were thrashed by Phillip Rivers last week. Both of these teams and deeply flawed and deeply talented, and both need to win this game. A loss knocks Dallas out completely, while Pittsburgh can afford to lose as long as they beat the Bengals next week, which we all know they will. So I am actually going to take the homedog; I think the absence of Dez just means good games for Austin, Witten and Murray. Cowboys 33-30.
(Over 44)
Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 3
So much for my idiotic belief in Brady Quinn. Apparently a few profound words at a press conference doesn't make someone a good quarterback. I won't make that mistake again.
Oakland may actually want to lose this game, because it gives them a solid chance at the #1 or #2 pick and finding a franchise QB. Their defense is AWFUL (28th against the pass, 26th against the run, 30th in total yards, 31st in sacks, 32nd in points allowed, 29th on third downs) so even if they intend to stop Jamaal Charles, they might not be able to. Offensively, they're not much better. They only gain yards in garbage time. And to top it all off, Oakland is horrible at home: 5-10 over the past two years, and 5-27 ATS against sub .500 teams. So long story short, I'm taking the Chiefs! Man, I'm an idiot. KC 26-13.
(Under 44)
49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 4.5
Winning 7 in a row is always amazing. What's more amazing is scoring more than 40 points per game during that stretch. And it wasn't against a bunch of cupcake defenses; those 7 defense average a rank of 13th best in the NFL, and would be a tad higher if they all hadn't just taken turns getting whipped by the Patriots. So all that to say, if they can thrash Houston, St. Louis, Miami and Buffalo's above average defenses, why can't they do the same to San Francisco? When in doubt, Tom Brady covers the spread 59% of the time, so take the Pats. New England 37-27.
(Over 46.5)
Jets (6-7) @ Titans (4-9)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5
The stupid idiot Jets are going to win again and stay in this playoff race. I actually hope they make the playoffs so Peyton Manning can eradicate them by about 40 points in the first round. Jets win this one, 22-20.
(Over 41.5)
GO Lions.
Overall:
103-99-9 (50.9%) ATS
128-79 (61.8%) straight-up
Luck and Griffin continued their amazing rookie crusades with last-second wins, the Lions botched another winnable game, the Jets are still alive in the playoffs despite being horrendous, the Browns won by 23 points (their biggest win since 2003), Nick Foles was a stud, the Cowboys stayed alive, the Bucs died, and the MVP comes down to Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning, two guys that we didn't even think for sure were healthy enough to play this season.
Also ... Colin Kaepernick is going to be a star QB very soon, Tom Brady embarrassed the Texans so badly that JJ Watt could lose the D-MVP to Von Miller as a result, and Calvin Johnson and AP both inched closer to breaking a couple of incredible single-season yardage records. I picked the Niners-Dolphins game exactly (27-13), and went 11-4 in my first week of ever guessing the over/under on total scores. (Not bad!)
In Draft news, KC and Jacksonville essentially locked in the 1st and 2nd picks, with KC going 1st right now by virtue of the tiebreaker. (Maybe it won't be a QB after all ... Geno Smith stock is dropping). Detroit has a chance to pick as high as 3rd, or as low as 10th. Two stud players the Lions sorely need are in that range - CB Dee Milliner and LB Manti Te'o. I'm almost rooting for Detroit to lose to Arizona, but not really, because that's humiliating.
Here are my week 15 picks:
Bengals (7-6) @ Eagles (4-9)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 5
The 6th playoff spot in the AFC is basically going to come down to Pittsburgh or Cincy, unless both teams implode and the Jets sneak in. Philly, after losing eight straight, has found a leader in Nick Foles, who was stinking fantastic against Tampa. If the next few games go well for Foles, he'll be their starting QB in 2013, and he just might save Andy Reid's job.
I'm taking the Eagles for two reasons: they're a 5-point homedog, and Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to slow down AJ Green, who is really the only weapon Cincinnati has. Although Nnamdi has had a really bad year by his standards, he's still one of the few guys alive who can limit AJ Green. Bengals 23-20.
(Under 45.5)
Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 1
I'm pretty sure Atlanta's the better team, and should be favored by more than 1. This looks like a total overreaction spread. I'll say Falcons 28-23.
(Under 51)
Packers (9-3) @ Bears (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3
Another overreaction line. Everybody is freaking out about Brian Urlacher's injury, but Urlacher is barely the fifth best player on his own defense (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings). By contrast, Green Bay is still without Woodson and Matthews, who are both significantly better than Urlacher. I hate Chicago and Jay Cutler was awful last week, (almost had 2 pick-sixes), but they probably shouldn't be a 3 point underdog at home. That said, Green Bay is rolling and I've picked against the Bears all season, so why stop now. Packers 27-17.
(Over 42)
Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 1
Griffin is somewhere between questionable and probable. In the interests of winning ROY (not to mention they have an outside chance at the playoffs), he should definitely start. If he does, I'm taking Washington. If not, I'm probably still taking Washington. Cleveland winning 4 in a row isn't a scenario I can fathom.
Griffin is out; Kirk Cousins is starting. I guess I'll stick with the Redskins, 23-21.
Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 1
Actual Line: STL by 3
I managed to watch most of the Vikings-Bears game last week, and it's clear that Adrian Peterson is gunning for nothing less than Eric Dickerson's record. He needs 168 rushing yards per game over the next 3 games. Which means, he needs a big 200+ game and he'll get there. Could this be that game?
Common sense would lean towards no, because the Rams rank 6th against the run. Jeff Fisher has them playing excellent defense, only giving up 30 points twice, to QBs named Rodgers and Brady. The Rams are a tremendous 9-4 ATS this year, and Fisher has done more with less talent than any other coach in the league. Not sure who will win Coach of the Year ... Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, Belichick maybe ... but Fisher should at least be in the discussion. He won't win it, because the Rams aren't going to the playoffs, but he's done a great job.
Anyway, three observations concerning the Vikings:
1) Christian Ponder has clearly regressed. He was awful last week, as he's been awful for a while. Throwing off his back foot, missing open guys, panicking in the pocket. All with 9 guys in the box focused on AP. Pretty sad how his career began with so much potential and now it's tumbling to the ground. Oh well.
2) Matt Kalil is amazing. A very worthy top 5 pick last year. He held his own against a tough Bears' D-line, including Julius Peppers on several plays. It's clear how much Adrian Peterson appreciates him. And it's pretty clear he should be in the Pro Bowl.
3) The Vikings defense is crap. Other than Jared Allen of course. But that secondary looked as lost as the Lions'.
So I'm taking the Rams, I guess. I think AP runs for about 145 yards, but Ponder betrays him and the Rams win this one 26-20.
(Over 38.5)
Jaguars (2-11) @ Dolphins (5-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4.5
Actual Line: MIA by 7.5
Miami likes to lose low-scoring, with an average score of 16-20. Jacksonville likes to lose big, 13-27 on average.
So I'm not real sure what to do with this spread. I don't think Ryan Tannehill has earned the right to be favored by 7 against anyone. Chad Henne's the better QB in this game, and he's facing his former team, which might give him some added motivation. I guess I like the Jags to keep it close. Maybe 20-14, Dolphins.
(Under 37)
Bucs (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
I'm so sick of hearing about the Bounty thing. I hope I never hear about it again. Bucs 34-27.
(Over 53)
Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3
Pretty sure there's a rule about not betting against Peyton Manning when he's on an 8 game winning streak. Plus, Baltimore has been overrated all year, and it's finally catching up with them, as this could be their third straight loss. How about Broncos 31-20.
(Over 48)
Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10
I'm pretty sure Luck is good enough that he shouldn't be a 9 point dog against anyone. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure. Houston 27-24.
(Over 48)
Seahawks (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 6
Remember when that idiot Richard Sherman trash-talked Tom Brady back in week 6, and I said
"It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day."
Well, Sherman has turned out to be a better mailman that anyone expected. The 2011 5th round pick (taken a whopping 110 picks after Titus Young) is already being called the best shutdown cornerback in football. By a lot of people. Including: Pro Football Focus, Ron Jaworski, Bleacher Report, WalterFootball, New England Sports Network, and of course, Himself.
So from this point forward, we have to consider Sherman's impact when picking the games. That entire Seattle defense is kicking serious butt, but Sherman just held Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch and 2 yards, so he's their star right now. It goes to figure that he'll shut down Stevie Johnson, but the Bills' offense should still be able to move the ball a little. It's sad that Fred Jackson's season-ending injury is actually a good thing for Buffalo, because CJ Spiller is clearly the better runner, and they'll finally be forced to use him. Remember when Jackson got hurt early in the season and Spiller ran for 292 yards in 2 games?
On the flip side, Marshawn Lynch goes into Buffalo to face the team that drafted him 12th overall in 2007. I imagine Bills fans aren't too fond of him. He shmucked around for 3 years, got hurt, arrested, suspended, then was traded for a 4th round pick. Now, he's an undeniable stud and maybe a top 5 RB in the league. Crappy luck for Buffalo.
I just don't believe in taking Seattle on the road, and despite Buffalo's current 2-7 skid, I think they're playing better than their record indicates. But I will take the Seahawks outright, 16-13.
(Under 43)
Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 6.5
Sheesh. We really have the same record as a team that's lost 9 straight? The only good thing I can say about the 2012 Lions is that they have me really looking forward to baseball season.
Let's look at this by the matchups:
Worst offensive line in NFL history VS. Suh, Fairley, Avril = huge edge to Detroit.
Absolutely no running game VS. Detroit's pretty good linebackers = huge edge to Detroit.
John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, or recently acquired Brian Hoyer = huge, huge, huge win for Detroit.
Larry Fitzgerald VS. Chris Houtson = huge win for Arizona.
The rest of the Cardinals weapons VS. the Lions' secondary = crap against crap. Could go either way.
Cards' defensive line VS. Lions' O-line = decent edge to Arizona.
Stafford VS. a defense that can rush the passer pretty well and cover pretty well too = tie.
Calvin VS. Patrick Peterson = edge to Calvin, obviously, but Peterson is good.
Leshoure and Bell VS. 30th ranked rush defense = edge for Lions
Tony Scheffler, Mike Thomas and Kris Durham VS. Cards' secondary = edge to Arizona.
Ken Whisenhunt VS. Jim Schwartz = edge to Cardinals
Intangibles:
Larry Fitzgerald says the Cardinals have quit = edge for Lions.
Calvin Johnson's pursuit of single-season record = edge for Lions.
Both coaches trying to keep their jobs = tie.
Homefield advantage = edge to Cardinals
Lions feeling embarrassed, disrespected, angry = edge for Lions.
Cardinals just can't wait for this season end = edge for Lions.
4pm EST game = edge for Cardinals.
Just heard the official word. Ryan Lindley will start.
He was worse than numbers can possibly explain in his 3 starts (no offensive touchdowns, 3 defensive touchdowns), but I'm going to refrain from making fun of him because if any defense could give up a 300 yard, 3 TD game to Ryan Lindley, it would be the Lions. In fact, I'm almost positive that will happen.
I'll say Lions win, 31-21.
(Over 44)
Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3
Both teams were very impressive last week, but have found ways to lose close games all season. Carolina is the better team with the better QB and better coach, and I'm really, really sick of the Chargers after all the ways they ruined my fantasy season(s). Panthers 27-13.
(Under 45)
Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 2
This line probably dropped a point or two because of Dez Bryant's broken finger, which is stupid. Anyway, the guy who would have guarded Dez, Ike Tayor, is also out, as are Pittsburgh's #2 and #3 cornerbacks. The secondary is in shambles, which is why they were thrashed by Phillip Rivers last week. Both of these teams and deeply flawed and deeply talented, and both need to win this game. A loss knocks Dallas out completely, while Pittsburgh can afford to lose as long as they beat the Bengals next week, which we all know they will. So I am actually going to take the homedog; I think the absence of Dez just means good games for Austin, Witten and Murray. Cowboys 33-30.
(Over 44)
Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 3
So much for my idiotic belief in Brady Quinn. Apparently a few profound words at a press conference doesn't make someone a good quarterback. I won't make that mistake again.
Oakland may actually want to lose this game, because it gives them a solid chance at the #1 or #2 pick and finding a franchise QB. Their defense is AWFUL (28th against the pass, 26th against the run, 30th in total yards, 31st in sacks, 32nd in points allowed, 29th on third downs) so even if they intend to stop Jamaal Charles, they might not be able to. Offensively, they're not much better. They only gain yards in garbage time. And to top it all off, Oakland is horrible at home: 5-10 over the past two years, and 5-27 ATS against sub .500 teams. So long story short, I'm taking the Chiefs! Man, I'm an idiot. KC 26-13.
(Under 44)
49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 4.5
Winning 7 in a row is always amazing. What's more amazing is scoring more than 40 points per game during that stretch. And it wasn't against a bunch of cupcake defenses; those 7 defense average a rank of 13th best in the NFL, and would be a tad higher if they all hadn't just taken turns getting whipped by the Patriots. So all that to say, if they can thrash Houston, St. Louis, Miami and Buffalo's above average defenses, why can't they do the same to San Francisco? When in doubt, Tom Brady covers the spread 59% of the time, so take the Pats. New England 37-27.
(Over 46.5)
Jets (6-7) @ Titans (4-9)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5
The stupid idiot Jets are going to win again and stay in this playoff race. I actually hope they make the playoffs so Peyton Manning can eradicate them by about 40 points in the first round. Jets win this one, 22-20.
(Over 41.5)
GO Lions.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Week Fourteen
Yet another mediocre week of picks. I went 8-7-1 ATS and 11-5 straight up for the second straight week. I'm now 29-29-2 over the past four weeks. Talk about consistency.
For the year, I am:
97-91-7 ATS (51.5%)
119-72 straight up (62.3%)
For a little history, in 2010 I picked the games only straight-up, and had stunning 67% accuracy. In 2011 I picked only ATS, and ended up at an equally stunning 54.1%. Last year, I picked both ATS and straight up, and was a solid 51.7% and 67.5%.
I'm hoping to exceed last year's 51.7% mark, but 67.5% is nearly impossible at this point, barring the elusive 16-0 week.
With the Lions' fourth straight loss being the most crushing one yet, I don't feel like talking much about last week's games. Let's just say I should have changed my pick to KC+3 after the events that took place in Kansas City. Also, I wonder how many more games have to be played before Luck and RG3 are thrown into the Ben/Eli/Ryan pantheon as no-doubt top 10 quarterbacks? By middle of next season, I expect both guys to be neck-and-neck with Drew Brees for top 5 QB status. And within 3 years, I think the top 3 QBs in the league are unquestionably going to be Rodgers, Luck and Griffin. Amazing. And scary.
Let's begin the week 14 picks ...
Broncos (9-3) @ Raiders (3-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 9.5
Actual Line: DEN by 11
What's most impressive isn't merely the Broncos' seven-game winning streak. It's the fact that they've won each game by at least 7 points. And they've scored 30 or more in all those games except one. Peyton Manning is playing like Peyton Manning, and yet we're all so surprised.
On the other side, Oakland has lost five straight, they got trashed by Brandon Weeden last week, and they can't stop the run whatsoever. Also, Von Miller has more sacks (15) than the Raiders (14).
So why lean towards Oakland? Well, because three years in a row double-digit underdogs have covered the spread more than half the time (approximately 57%). Those numbers are even higher for home underdogs, and higher still for home underdogs in divisional games. So by all predictable logic, the Raiders should cover this game about 68% of the time. I'm almost positive the final score will be Denver 26-17.
(Under 48.5)
Rams (5-6-1) @ Bills (5-7)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
I don't think I've picked a Bills game correctly in 3 years. I freaking hate them. This feels like it should be a pretty low-scoring, sloppy game, so I might as well take the points. Plus, the Rams are way underrated. How about Bills 18-16.
(Under 42.5)
Cowboys (6-6) @ Bengals (7-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 3
A surprising four-game winning streak has Cincy back in the playoff hunt, but it needs to be noted that the last three teams they've played are all abysmal. Overall, they've faced the easiest schedule in the league, so 7-5 really isn't a great record. Their remaining schedule is tough, and they'll have to win in Pittsburgh week 16 to have any chance at the playoffs.
Dallas is in a similar boat. They basically need to win their remaining 4 games to make the playoffs. I don't think they will, but they'll at least win this one, because it's mandated in the NFL's constitution that every season involve some sort of Cowboy-related playoff intrigue. Cowboys 31-23.
(Over 45.5)
Chiefs (2-10) @ Browns (4-8)
Predicted Line: CLE by 3
Actual Line: CLE by 6.5
Frankly, I'm not sure Cleveland should be favored by this many points against half the teams in the SEC. Then throw in the fact that the underdogs are suddenly inspired by a major tragedy, and have found a leader in the shockingly profound Brady Quinn, who incidentally just played the best game of his career. Now he heads back to Cleveland, his hometown, to avenge the terrible years he played with the Browns. I like the Chiefs straight up, 23-13. Which by the way, would throw a wrench in all the mock drafts that have KC taking Geno Smith at #1.
Seriously, it's worth watching that video of Quinn's press conference. My respect for him went from a 0 to about a 99 in 50 seconds.
(Under 37.5)
Titans (4-8) @ Colts (8-4)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 6
So, I don't mean to brag, but did I call that Lions-Colts game or what?
I said Luck would have his first 3 TD game .... he did. (plus one more)
I said Luck would throw for 350 yards ... he did. (plus 40 more)
I said Calvin would have a monster game .... he did.
I said both teams would score in the 30s ... they did.
I said the teams would combine to score 66 points .... they scored 68.
I said the Colts would win on a last-second heart breaker ... they certainly did.
So I'm not sure what that means, other than I have a good read on the dysfunctional nature of the Lions and the unflappability of Andrew Luck.
I think the smart pick here would be Colts winning but Titans covering the spread, given that Indy's margins of victory this season have been narrow: 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 7, 2, and 17. But, I'm taking a risk that Luck will manufacture one of his first blowouts, as the Titans defense really lacks talent, and at 4-8, they'll also lack the motivation. Indy wins big in a romp at home, 38-16.
After this game, Mike & Mike will start to wonder if we'll see Luck vs. Peyton in the AFC Championship.
(Over 48)
Bears (8-4) @ Vikings (6-6)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3
Actual Line: CHI by 3
Next time somebody tries to tell you that Jay Cutler is good, it would be helpful to remind them that the Bears rank 31st in passing offense, and Cutler doesn't rank in the top 15 in any statistics except interceptions and sacks. The real reason the Bears are 8-4 is because they lead the NFL with 34 turnovers, and they've scored on a whopping 8 of those turnovers. But, they haven't scored a defensive touchdown in 4 weeks, and not coincidentally they're 1-3 during that span. Cutler's injury only hurt them because of how bad the backup was; it was like downgrading from a 72 to a 52. But make no mistake, Jay Cutler is a C-minus quarterback, and if the defense doesn't make big plays, the Bears don't win.
With Percy Harvin now on IR, I'm inclined to pick against the Vikings ... but then I watch Adrian Peterson highlights, and I see his otherworldly 6.2 YPC, and the fact that he has almost as many runs of 20+ yards as the next two RBs combined, and I wonder if he might be the single most valuable/dangerous/don't-pick-against-this-guy player in the league. He's having one of the best seasons any RB has ever had, and he's doing it against 8 guys in the box on every play. And he wasn't even supposed to play at all this year.
I know there's a mandate that MVPs have to be quarterbacks, but I think the two best players in the league this year have been AP and Megatron. And I also think the Vikings can win this game at home. Maybe a sorely needed bounce-back performance for Ponder? Minnesota 24-21.
(Over 39)
Chargers (4-8) @ Steelers (7-5)Predicted Line: PIT by 6
Actual Line: PIT by 7
I'm not sure how it works when the coach and GM know they're going to be fired. It's an undisputed fact that Norv Turner and AJ Smith are gone as soon as the season ends. So what does San Diego do these last four games? Play for pride? Go through the motions? Give up completely?
I think it comes down to the leadership on the team. Detroit is out of the playoffs, but because of Schwartz's anger issues and respected veterans on the team (VandenBosch, Burleson, Raiola, etc) the team won't quit trying to win. I'm not sure San Diego has those kind of guys. Rivers definitely isn't one. It's especially tough to muster any sense of competitiveness on the road in a very hostile environment.
From a merely X's and O's perspective, I really like the Steelers. They'll be able to throw all over the place now that Ben is back, especially since San Diego has no pass rush. The Steelers D should be able to dominate Rivers and his decimated offensive line; the Bolts are down to their 3rd string left tackle (fresh off the practice squad) and are also missing starters at RT and LG. James Harrison will be licking his chops.
I'm going to take Pittsburgh in a blowout, 37-7.
Eagles (3-9) @ Bucs (6-6)
Predicted Line: TB by 8.5
Actual Line: TB by 7.5
WalterFootball.com made a compelling argument in favor of the Eagles. He basically says that since the Vick Era officially ended, the Eagles began to try again, and they've almost won their last two games, thanks to some incredible running by emerging star Bryce Brown and the slowly improving Nick Foles. On the other hand, Tampa has fallen apart as Doug Martin appears to have hit a major rookie wall. He gained a horrible 2.8 YPC over the last two games.
Walter makes valid points, and this line probably is a few points too high.
But then again, WalterFootball has been terrible this year, picking 47.2% of the games correctly, much lower than my 51.5%. So even though he exceeded 52% in 3 of the past 4 years, I don't know how much I should trust him. Many times this year I've taken his advice and got the pick very wrong. He has too many biases that influence his picks, and his biggest bias is against Vick. I know he's pretending to like Foles just because of how much he dislikes Vick. He hasn't swayed me into thinking that Nick Foles is any better than he actually is .... but he does make good points which are backed by good research. I'll go Bucs by 3, 20-17.
(Under 47)
Ravens (9-3) @ Redskins (6-6)
Predicted Line: WAS by 1
Actual Line: WAS by 3
Betting against RG3 is about the dumbest thing a person can do nowadays. Plus Baltimore is kind of overachieving; other than Oakland and Cleveland, they haven't beat anybody by more than 3 points since week 1. Now, Terrell Suggs is out again with a bicep tear, and Ray Lewis is still one week away from playing, and of course Lardarious Webb is out too. Baltimore's defense actually ranks a crappy 25th in terms of yards allowed, narrowly ahead of Washington at 29th. This could quickly turn into a barnburner. While Baltimore has the better coach, Washington has the better QB, and I think that makes the bigger difference. Redskins 34-30.
(Way over 47.5)
Falcons (11-1) @ Panthers (3-9)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 3.5
What the Panthers lack in the win column, they make up for with bravado. Prior to the season, their players were guaranteeing Super Bowls. Cam Newton made a stupid Youtube video pleading his case to be on the cover of Madden, and he began the video by listing about 30 self-appointed nicknames, such as Mr. Swag Man. And now, mediocre defensive end Greg Hardy is telling anyone who will listen that the 3-9 Panthers are a better team than the 11-1 Falcons and something about "punishment."
It reminds me of the Jon Kitna/Kevin Smith days when the Lions would predict 10 wins for themselves and then win 2 games. It's nice to have confidence, but you've gotta back it up with some talent and some composure on the field. Carolina hasn't done that, and Atlanta has. Personnel-wise, they may be close, but Atlanta actually performs on the field, and they don't beat themselves.
That said, Carolina is playing their best football right now, especially Newton, who has 8 touchdowns and 0 turnovers in the last 3 games. And homedogs getting more than 3 points are usually a good bet. However, I think Hardy's stupid comments might give Atlanta just enough motivation to kick the crap out of Carolina's sorry secondary and possibly even run up the score. Who knows. I'll say Falcons 37-27.
(Over 48)
Jets (5-7) @ Jaguars (2-10)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
If it wasn't for Tim Tebow's rib injury, this actually might have been the most interesting game of the week. Sanchez finally benched, Tebow in his hometown, rumors of Tebow becoming the Jags' QB next year .... but instead, it's an absolute waste of time. Sanchez gets another chance, Henne hands the ball to a 4th string running back, and both defenses suck. Taking the homedog. Sanchez shouldn't be a road favorite against anyone after his confidence was dragged through the dirt. Jags 16-6.
(Under 38.5)
Dolphins (5-7) @ 49ers (8-3-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 8
Actual Line: SF by 10
Conventional wisdom says to take the points. Miami typically steps up against superior foes, and is a stunning 15-3 ATS on the road against teams with winning records since 07.
But one major injury scares me. Jake Long is gone for the year with a tricep injury. Many suspect that his career in Miami is over, as he'll be a free agent after this season and hasn't been extended. He'll either get franchised (1 year, $15 million) or a long-term deal (something like 7 years, $80 million, $40 guaranteed). Most people speculate that Miami doesn't want to retain him as they have too many other holes on the roster, and Long is getting older and has been hit by a few injuries lately. If he doesn't get paid by Miami, he will get a big payday somewhere, and unfortunately, Detroit will not be among the possible candidates with the available cash, in case you wondered.
Long's injury impacts this game because he'll be replaced by rookie Jonathan Martin, who has never started in the blind side before. Martin's task is to block current sack-leader Aldon Smith, while also keeping an eye on All Pro Justin Smith. Yikes.
This could easily lead to 6 or 7 sacks and 3 or 4 turnovers for Ryan Tannehill, who is notoriously unaware of protections and blitzes. That alone will be enough to beat the spread, provided San Fran's offense puts up at least 20 points, which should be no problem.
I'll take the Niners 27-13.
(Over 39)
Saints (5-7) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3.5
Actual Line: NYG by 5
Saints' defense is horrible, but Brees will be looking to prove he doesn't suck after last week's debacle. I have absolutely no read on either of these teams. But I know it would be hilarious to see the Giants miss the playoffs, so I'll say Saints win, 33-25.
(Over 53)
Cardinals (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)
Predicted Line: SEA by 9.5
Actual Line: SEA by 10
A lot of really tough picks this week, and here's another one. I don't like laying 10 points with rookie QBs, but I don't like anything about the Cardinals and their 8-game losing streak. At least they wisely benched Ryan Lindley and put him out of his misery. But is John Skelton (2 TDs, 7 turnovers), going to fare any better? Among QBs with at least 50 attempts, Lindley has the worst QB rating (40.4), but Skelton has the next worst (64.4). And while they do have a wretched offensive line, they also have Larry Fitzgerald, so the excuses are limited. By comparison Kevin Kolb (86.1) is an absolute rock star. When his ribs are fully healed, he'll likely be the QB to finish out the season.
But no question, Arizona leads the list of teams that need a new QB next year. Is Alex Smith on their list? What about Vick? And it needs to be asked, Tebow? Or will they just take the best rookie in a class that's not particularly impressive?
I'm taking Seattle, but not by 10, and the only reason is because Arizona's defense is pretty solid. Here's a link to one of the most impressive interceptions you'll ever see, courtesy of Patrick Peterson last week.
Seahawks 20-13.
(Under 35.5)
Lions (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 7
..... Probably taking the points. The Lions can't seem to get blown out by anybody. Packers 33-27.
(Over 51)
Texans (11-1) @ Patriots (9-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4
Pats by 7. 37-30.
(Over 52)
That's it for now .... Go Timberwolves.
For the year, I am:
97-91-7 ATS (51.5%)
119-72 straight up (62.3%)
For a little history, in 2010 I picked the games only straight-up, and had stunning 67% accuracy. In 2011 I picked only ATS, and ended up at an equally stunning 54.1%. Last year, I picked both ATS and straight up, and was a solid 51.7% and 67.5%.
I'm hoping to exceed last year's 51.7% mark, but 67.5% is nearly impossible at this point, barring the elusive 16-0 week.
With the Lions' fourth straight loss being the most crushing one yet, I don't feel like talking much about last week's games. Let's just say I should have changed my pick to KC+3 after the events that took place in Kansas City. Also, I wonder how many more games have to be played before Luck and RG3 are thrown into the Ben/Eli/Ryan pantheon as no-doubt top 10 quarterbacks? By middle of next season, I expect both guys to be neck-and-neck with Drew Brees for top 5 QB status. And within 3 years, I think the top 3 QBs in the league are unquestionably going to be Rodgers, Luck and Griffin. Amazing. And scary.
Let's begin the week 14 picks ...
Broncos (9-3) @ Raiders (3-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 9.5
Actual Line: DEN by 11
What's most impressive isn't merely the Broncos' seven-game winning streak. It's the fact that they've won each game by at least 7 points. And they've scored 30 or more in all those games except one. Peyton Manning is playing like Peyton Manning, and yet we're all so surprised.
On the other side, Oakland has lost five straight, they got trashed by Brandon Weeden last week, and they can't stop the run whatsoever. Also, Von Miller has more sacks (15) than the Raiders (14).
So why lean towards Oakland? Well, because three years in a row double-digit underdogs have covered the spread more than half the time (approximately 57%). Those numbers are even higher for home underdogs, and higher still for home underdogs in divisional games. So by all predictable logic, the Raiders should cover this game about 68% of the time. I'm almost positive the final score will be Denver 26-17.
(Under 48.5)
Rams (5-6-1) @ Bills (5-7)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
I don't think I've picked a Bills game correctly in 3 years. I freaking hate them. This feels like it should be a pretty low-scoring, sloppy game, so I might as well take the points. Plus, the Rams are way underrated. How about Bills 18-16.
(Under 42.5)
Cowboys (6-6) @ Bengals (7-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 3
A surprising four-game winning streak has Cincy back in the playoff hunt, but it needs to be noted that the last three teams they've played are all abysmal. Overall, they've faced the easiest schedule in the league, so 7-5 really isn't a great record. Their remaining schedule is tough, and they'll have to win in Pittsburgh week 16 to have any chance at the playoffs.
Dallas is in a similar boat. They basically need to win their remaining 4 games to make the playoffs. I don't think they will, but they'll at least win this one, because it's mandated in the NFL's constitution that every season involve some sort of Cowboy-related playoff intrigue. Cowboys 31-23.
(Over 45.5)
Chiefs (2-10) @ Browns (4-8)
Predicted Line: CLE by 3
Actual Line: CLE by 6.5
Frankly, I'm not sure Cleveland should be favored by this many points against half the teams in the SEC. Then throw in the fact that the underdogs are suddenly inspired by a major tragedy, and have found a leader in the shockingly profound Brady Quinn, who incidentally just played the best game of his career. Now he heads back to Cleveland, his hometown, to avenge the terrible years he played with the Browns. I like the Chiefs straight up, 23-13. Which by the way, would throw a wrench in all the mock drafts that have KC taking Geno Smith at #1.
Seriously, it's worth watching that video of Quinn's press conference. My respect for him went from a 0 to about a 99 in 50 seconds.
(Under 37.5)
Titans (4-8) @ Colts (8-4)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 6
So, I don't mean to brag, but did I call that Lions-Colts game or what?
I said Luck would have his first 3 TD game .... he did. (plus one more)
I said Luck would throw for 350 yards ... he did. (plus 40 more)
I said Calvin would have a monster game .... he did.
I said both teams would score in the 30s ... they did.
I said the teams would combine to score 66 points .... they scored 68.
I said the Colts would win on a last-second heart breaker ... they certainly did.
So I'm not sure what that means, other than I have a good read on the dysfunctional nature of the Lions and the unflappability of Andrew Luck.
I think the smart pick here would be Colts winning but Titans covering the spread, given that Indy's margins of victory this season have been narrow: 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 7, 2, and 17. But, I'm taking a risk that Luck will manufacture one of his first blowouts, as the Titans defense really lacks talent, and at 4-8, they'll also lack the motivation. Indy wins big in a romp at home, 38-16.
After this game, Mike & Mike will start to wonder if we'll see Luck vs. Peyton in the AFC Championship.
(Over 48)
Bears (8-4) @ Vikings (6-6)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3
Actual Line: CHI by 3
Next time somebody tries to tell you that Jay Cutler is good, it would be helpful to remind them that the Bears rank 31st in passing offense, and Cutler doesn't rank in the top 15 in any statistics except interceptions and sacks. The real reason the Bears are 8-4 is because they lead the NFL with 34 turnovers, and they've scored on a whopping 8 of those turnovers. But, they haven't scored a defensive touchdown in 4 weeks, and not coincidentally they're 1-3 during that span. Cutler's injury only hurt them because of how bad the backup was; it was like downgrading from a 72 to a 52. But make no mistake, Jay Cutler is a C-minus quarterback, and if the defense doesn't make big plays, the Bears don't win.
With Percy Harvin now on IR, I'm inclined to pick against the Vikings ... but then I watch Adrian Peterson highlights, and I see his otherworldly 6.2 YPC, and the fact that he has almost as many runs of 20+ yards as the next two RBs combined, and I wonder if he might be the single most valuable/dangerous/don't-pick-against-this-guy player in the league. He's having one of the best seasons any RB has ever had, and he's doing it against 8 guys in the box on every play. And he wasn't even supposed to play at all this year.
I know there's a mandate that MVPs have to be quarterbacks, but I think the two best players in the league this year have been AP and Megatron. And I also think the Vikings can win this game at home. Maybe a sorely needed bounce-back performance for Ponder? Minnesota 24-21.
(Over 39)
Chargers (4-8) @ Steelers (7-5)Predicted Line: PIT by 6
Actual Line: PIT by 7
I'm not sure how it works when the coach and GM know they're going to be fired. It's an undisputed fact that Norv Turner and AJ Smith are gone as soon as the season ends. So what does San Diego do these last four games? Play for pride? Go through the motions? Give up completely?
I think it comes down to the leadership on the team. Detroit is out of the playoffs, but because of Schwartz's anger issues and respected veterans on the team (VandenBosch, Burleson, Raiola, etc) the team won't quit trying to win. I'm not sure San Diego has those kind of guys. Rivers definitely isn't one. It's especially tough to muster any sense of competitiveness on the road in a very hostile environment.
From a merely X's and O's perspective, I really like the Steelers. They'll be able to throw all over the place now that Ben is back, especially since San Diego has no pass rush. The Steelers D should be able to dominate Rivers and his decimated offensive line; the Bolts are down to their 3rd string left tackle (fresh off the practice squad) and are also missing starters at RT and LG. James Harrison will be licking his chops.
I'm going to take Pittsburgh in a blowout, 37-7.
Eagles (3-9) @ Bucs (6-6)
Predicted Line: TB by 8.5
Actual Line: TB by 7.5
WalterFootball.com made a compelling argument in favor of the Eagles. He basically says that since the Vick Era officially ended, the Eagles began to try again, and they've almost won their last two games, thanks to some incredible running by emerging star Bryce Brown and the slowly improving Nick Foles. On the other hand, Tampa has fallen apart as Doug Martin appears to have hit a major rookie wall. He gained a horrible 2.8 YPC over the last two games.
Walter makes valid points, and this line probably is a few points too high.
But then again, WalterFootball has been terrible this year, picking 47.2% of the games correctly, much lower than my 51.5%. So even though he exceeded 52% in 3 of the past 4 years, I don't know how much I should trust him. Many times this year I've taken his advice and got the pick very wrong. He has too many biases that influence his picks, and his biggest bias is against Vick. I know he's pretending to like Foles just because of how much he dislikes Vick. He hasn't swayed me into thinking that Nick Foles is any better than he actually is .... but he does make good points which are backed by good research. I'll go Bucs by 3, 20-17.
(Under 47)
Ravens (9-3) @ Redskins (6-6)
Predicted Line: WAS by 1
Actual Line: WAS by 3
Betting against RG3 is about the dumbest thing a person can do nowadays. Plus Baltimore is kind of overachieving; other than Oakland and Cleveland, they haven't beat anybody by more than 3 points since week 1. Now, Terrell Suggs is out again with a bicep tear, and Ray Lewis is still one week away from playing, and of course Lardarious Webb is out too. Baltimore's defense actually ranks a crappy 25th in terms of yards allowed, narrowly ahead of Washington at 29th. This could quickly turn into a barnburner. While Baltimore has the better coach, Washington has the better QB, and I think that makes the bigger difference. Redskins 34-30.
(Way over 47.5)
Falcons (11-1) @ Panthers (3-9)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 3.5
What the Panthers lack in the win column, they make up for with bravado. Prior to the season, their players were guaranteeing Super Bowls. Cam Newton made a stupid Youtube video pleading his case to be on the cover of Madden, and he began the video by listing about 30 self-appointed nicknames, such as Mr. Swag Man. And now, mediocre defensive end Greg Hardy is telling anyone who will listen that the 3-9 Panthers are a better team than the 11-1 Falcons and something about "punishment."
It reminds me of the Jon Kitna/Kevin Smith days when the Lions would predict 10 wins for themselves and then win 2 games. It's nice to have confidence, but you've gotta back it up with some talent and some composure on the field. Carolina hasn't done that, and Atlanta has. Personnel-wise, they may be close, but Atlanta actually performs on the field, and they don't beat themselves.
That said, Carolina is playing their best football right now, especially Newton, who has 8 touchdowns and 0 turnovers in the last 3 games. And homedogs getting more than 3 points are usually a good bet. However, I think Hardy's stupid comments might give Atlanta just enough motivation to kick the crap out of Carolina's sorry secondary and possibly even run up the score. Who knows. I'll say Falcons 37-27.
(Over 48)
Jets (5-7) @ Jaguars (2-10)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
If it wasn't for Tim Tebow's rib injury, this actually might have been the most interesting game of the week. Sanchez finally benched, Tebow in his hometown, rumors of Tebow becoming the Jags' QB next year .... but instead, it's an absolute waste of time. Sanchez gets another chance, Henne hands the ball to a 4th string running back, and both defenses suck. Taking the homedog. Sanchez shouldn't be a road favorite against anyone after his confidence was dragged through the dirt. Jags 16-6.
(Under 38.5)
Dolphins (5-7) @ 49ers (8-3-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 8
Actual Line: SF by 10
Conventional wisdom says to take the points. Miami typically steps up against superior foes, and is a stunning 15-3 ATS on the road against teams with winning records since 07.
But one major injury scares me. Jake Long is gone for the year with a tricep injury. Many suspect that his career in Miami is over, as he'll be a free agent after this season and hasn't been extended. He'll either get franchised (1 year, $15 million) or a long-term deal (something like 7 years, $80 million, $40 guaranteed). Most people speculate that Miami doesn't want to retain him as they have too many other holes on the roster, and Long is getting older and has been hit by a few injuries lately. If he doesn't get paid by Miami, he will get a big payday somewhere, and unfortunately, Detroit will not be among the possible candidates with the available cash, in case you wondered.
Long's injury impacts this game because he'll be replaced by rookie Jonathan Martin, who has never started in the blind side before. Martin's task is to block current sack-leader Aldon Smith, while also keeping an eye on All Pro Justin Smith. Yikes.
This could easily lead to 6 or 7 sacks and 3 or 4 turnovers for Ryan Tannehill, who is notoriously unaware of protections and blitzes. That alone will be enough to beat the spread, provided San Fran's offense puts up at least 20 points, which should be no problem.
I'll take the Niners 27-13.
(Over 39)
Saints (5-7) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3.5
Actual Line: NYG by 5
Saints' defense is horrible, but Brees will be looking to prove he doesn't suck after last week's debacle. I have absolutely no read on either of these teams. But I know it would be hilarious to see the Giants miss the playoffs, so I'll say Saints win, 33-25.
(Over 53)
Cardinals (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)
Predicted Line: SEA by 9.5
Actual Line: SEA by 10
A lot of really tough picks this week, and here's another one. I don't like laying 10 points with rookie QBs, but I don't like anything about the Cardinals and their 8-game losing streak. At least they wisely benched Ryan Lindley and put him out of his misery. But is John Skelton (2 TDs, 7 turnovers), going to fare any better? Among QBs with at least 50 attempts, Lindley has the worst QB rating (40.4), but Skelton has the next worst (64.4). And while they do have a wretched offensive line, they also have Larry Fitzgerald, so the excuses are limited. By comparison Kevin Kolb (86.1) is an absolute rock star. When his ribs are fully healed, he'll likely be the QB to finish out the season.
But no question, Arizona leads the list of teams that need a new QB next year. Is Alex Smith on their list? What about Vick? And it needs to be asked, Tebow? Or will they just take the best rookie in a class that's not particularly impressive?
I'm taking Seattle, but not by 10, and the only reason is because Arizona's defense is pretty solid. Here's a link to one of the most impressive interceptions you'll ever see, courtesy of Patrick Peterson last week.
Seahawks 20-13.
(Under 35.5)
Lions (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 7
..... Probably taking the points. The Lions can't seem to get blown out by anybody. Packers 33-27.
(Over 51)
Texans (11-1) @ Patriots (9-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4
Pats by 7. 37-30.
(Over 52)
That's it for now .... Go Timberwolves.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Week 13 Picks
Last week:
8-7-1 ATS
11-5 straight up
Overall:
89-84-6 ATS (51.4%)
108-67 straight up (61.7%)
Another week, another crushing Lions' loss.
Bill Barnwell wrote a terrific piece about the Lions' current financial troubles, and how the massive rookie deals of Calvin, Stafford and Suh are the reason why Detroit hasn't been able to build a quality roster. That's certainly a great point, and something I hadn't thought much about. Detroit had basically no choice but to give Calvin a monster extension last summer to keep him, and by doing so they were able to retain Tulloch and Avril for another year... but while it appeared great last year, very soon the crap is going to hit the fan.
They'll have to extend Stafford's deal soon, which will leave them with almost no financial flexibility. As a result. they may end up sacrificing Suh for Stafford. That seems like an tolerable proposition right now, given Suh's crotch-kicking antics and general despicableness. But he was a #2 overall pick just a few seasons ago; it would be a shame to only get a few years out of him. One thing's for sure - if the Lions could go back in time, they'd take Joe Haden with that pick, not Suh.
Despite the good points made by Barnwell about the Lions' unfortunate timing in regard to stupid rookie contracts, I still think with good coaching and a good gameplan, the Lions' secondary and O-line (their biggest weaknesses) could be much better. You don't have to get expensive players to get good players. Especially at those positions, where teamwork and cohesiveness are more important than raw skill.
Jim Schwartz's impulsive, angry, defiant decision to throw his red flag on a touchdown play was the perfect microcosm of this season. He let emotions get the best of him, he made a stupid choice that severely hurt the team, and it was completely avoidable. Heck, right after the play, when I saw his red flag on the turf, my first thought was "It's automatically reviewed, Schwartz. Calm down." Little did I realize that it was against the rules to challenge a scoring play, but now that I think about it, that rule actually makes sense. If the play is going to be reviewed anyway, why waste the refs' time explaining to the coach that it's going to be reviewed anyway? The entire goal of instant replay is to make it as instant as possible. That said, it's the refs fault for getting the call wrong in the first place, and the league should be able to make a rule-overriding exception to the no-challenge rule in cases where the ruling on the field was clearly wrong. Anytime the letter of the law trumps the spirit of the law, there is a problem. However, Schwartz of all people should have known the law, so it's his fault more than the refs. Both are idiots.
As we look ahead to the offseason and the imminent financial restrictions, it's very safe to assume that most of the unrestricted free agents will not be retained. At least not the ones that can find a better deal. These include almost the entire defense: Justin Durant, Cliff Avril, Chris Houston, Lawrence Jackson, DeAndre Levy, Jacob Lacey, Ashlee Palmer, Corey Williams, Willie Young, Erik Coleman, Drayton Florence, and a few other less vital players. The players who will command the most money will be Avril, Houston, Levy and Durant, and my guess is Detroit will only be able to keep one of them, or at most two. This could be very bad news.
I've been looking ahead to the 2013 Draft quite a bit lately, now that the Lions stand a decent chance at picking in the top 6 or 7. There's only one cornerback who is considered a top 20 prospect, and that's Alabama's Dee Miliner, a player with Revis-like skills. He's the guy I would love Detroit to grab, but they're going to have to lose 4 of their next 5 games to be in good position to take him. He's likely a top 6 pick.
If they don't address the secondary, I guess I'd like to see them add a pass rusher. VandenBosch stinks, Suh is unstable, and Avril will probably play elsewhere in 2013. There are plenty of elite DEs and OLBs, highlighted by Georgia's Jarvis Jones (possibly the #1 overall prospect), Damontre Moore from A&M, Barkevious Mingo from LSU (weirdest name ever), Dion Jordan from Oregon, and a few others. With Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young also free agents, this becomes a position of dire need.
If not a CB or DE, I guess I'd like to see the Lions take another offensive tackle. Gosder is due to be a free agent and almost certainly won't be retained, so Reiff won't be enough to rebuild the O-line. There are several early 1st round offensive tackle prospects. The best is Luke Joeckel, probably a top 5 pick, and another option is Michigan's Taylor Lewan. There's also a guard from Alabama named Chance Warmack who is considered a top 5 prospect; he might be the first guard taken in the top 15 since 1997, when Chris Naeole went 10th, just a few spots ahead of Tony Gonzalez.
If not DE, CB or OT, I guess the Lions could take a linebacker. Heisman hopefully Manti Te'o might fall to them, if the need for linebackers isn't great at the beginning of the draft. Te'o is already being called the future Patrick Willis, so if Detroit can't retain Durant and Levy, Te'o would make a super replacement. Another great linebacker would be Alec Ogeltree, who on Youtube looks more impressive to me than his more-hyped Georgia teammate Jarvis Jones.
The reality is, Detroit needs to be focusing on these positions, and only these positions. Any picks spent on receivers, running backs, tight ends, backup quarterbacks, or defensive tackles will be completely vile. Just because the Best and Titus picks turned out to be awful, don't try to rectify them at the expense of building your team. We've neglected certain positions for far too long, and can't afford to do it anymore. Plus, it's way easier to find free agent receivers and running backs than corners or offensive tackles.
If the Lions take yet another receiver because Titus hasn't worked out, it will be straight-up Millenesque.
I'm already getting frustrated in anticipation of what terrible pick they're going to make. Let's get to the stinking week 13 picks:
Saints (5-6) @ Falcons (10-1)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 3
Coming off a loss, Drew Brees tends to dominate. But that doesn't necessarily mean I'm taking the Saints.
Atlanta has the better defense, the better receivers by far, and the homefield advantage on a Thursday game. Plus they have a revenge factor after losing 2 weeks ago in New Orleans. I know this is a "must-win" game for the Saints (just like the last 7 have been), but just because a team needs to win doesn't mean they will win. Atlanta is just better. And who is going to cover Julio Jones? I'll take the Falcons 34-24.
Jaguars (2-9) @ Bills (4-7)
Predicted Line: BUF by 4
Actual Line: BUF by 6
On the road, the Jags are 1-4 this year, but they've covered the spread in all five games. They forced OT in 3 of those road games, all losses. And that was with the inferior Blaine Gabbert. Chad Henne -- who in fairness has been overhyped during the past two weeks -- represents a marked improvement over Gabbert in every way. Now, even with no running game, the Jags are actually moving the ball. Buffalo, meanwhile, kind of stinks at home, and they can't seem to score any points lately, plus they don't have anything to play for anymore. I think this becomes a battle of field goals, and stays low scoring. Bills 17-16.
Seahawks (6-5) @ Bears (8-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3.5
Actual Line: CHI by 4
The line is set at 4 on some sites, but other sites haven't posted a line until we know if Forte is going to play. With the playoffs approaching and Chicago sitting pretty at 8-3, my guess is Chicago rests Forte to make sure it doesn't get worse. Michael Bush can do a decent job in his stead.
These are two teams I really hate and pick against most of the time, so I don't know. Guess I'll take the Bears. Seattle stinks on the road. Chicago 20-13.
Colts (7-4) @ Lions (4-7)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 4.5
Well, now that the season is officially, officially over, it's a whole new dynamic. Lions' players are no longer playing for the playoffs; they're playing for themselves. In most cases, they're playing for their next contract.
What difference does that make on the field? More selfish play? More mental mistakes? It can't be a good thing, right?
Indy is steadily rolling along, winning 5 of their last 6 despite scoring only about 21 points per game. That's amazing considering Detroit usually scores 21 in the 4th quarter.
I expect Andrew Luck to have his first 3-TD game against Detroit and probably throw for about 350 yards as he continues to duel with RG3 for the most contested ROY I can ever remember. Chris Houston isn't quite good enough to hang with Reggie Wayne, and we have nobody to cover Luck's various other weapons. Despite the enormous talent disparity between these two teams (Detroit has a much better roster), I think Indy dictates the game offensively. They are better coached (then again, who isn't?) and better led by a better quarterback. Should be a couple of huge games for both Calvin and Wayne, but I think Indy comes out on top in another last-second heart-breaker. Colts 36-30.
Vikings (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5
Actual Line: GB by 9
I love the Packers this week. Something about a must-win game in Lambeau to bury a division foe. Plus, Greg Jennings is back. He took a lot of time off to make all those Old Spice commercials, but he's finally back and Rodgers will put him to use immediately. Green Bay 38-13.
Texans (10-1) @ Titans (4-7)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 6
I actually kind of like the Titans as home underdogs. Not to win, but perhaps to cover. Houston didn't thoroughly impress me last week. They just took advantage of a myriad of mistakes. I'll probably regret it as Matt Schaub throws for 490 yards, but what the heck, Houston 27-24.
Panthers (3-8) @ Chiefs (1-10)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line: CAR by 3
Huge game in terms of the Draft. Carolina really wants to keep winning, because a 6-10 season would save them a lot of embarrassment and might save the coach's job. KC wants to lose because they can't endure another season of Cassel/Quinn. After this loss they can start printing Geno Smith jerseys. Panthers 23-9.
49ers (8-2) @ Rams (4-6-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 7.5
I mean, these teams tied 24-24 a few weeks ago in San Fran, so why should the Niners be favored by a touchdown on the road? Plus, this Smith/Kaepernick thing has got to be a distraction. The Rams are 7-3 ATS as underdogs this year. I like those odds, especially at home. Niners 24-20.
Patriots (8-3) @ Dolphins (5-6)
Predicted Line: NE by 10
Actual Line: NE by 9
I'm just saying, the Pats have scored 49, 59, 37, and 45 in their last four games ... while Miami has scored 24, 14, 3 and 20. I'm not going to overthink it. New England 41-24.
Cardinals (4-7) @ Jets (4-7)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 5.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 4.5
Weirdly, the Jets are my favorite pick this week. Ryan Lindley (5 turnovers, 0 touchdowns) is starting his first road game. And the Jets had 3 extra days to prepare for him. I know he defeated Navy in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, but I still just don't trust him. Jets 20-3.
Bucs (6-5) @ Broncos (8-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 7
Both teams are on fire since starting out 1-2. Denver is especially hot, winning 6 straight and none of them have been particularly close. But I'll take the points, just in case. Broncos 31-27.
Browns (3-8) @ Raiders (3-8)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 2
Who cares. Raiders by 3.
Bengals (6-5) @ Chargers (4-7)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 2
Even if the Chargers weren't imploding during the final days of the Norv Turner Era ... and even if their record was reversed and they were 7-4 and potentially playoff-bound ... I still would lean towards Cincinnati. They've played some really solid defense lately, AJ Green looks unstoppable, and BenJarvus is coming off the best game of his career. After a four-game losing streak, they're now on the heels of a four-game winning streak.
San Diego, on the other hand, is dealing with four injuries on defense, three in the secondary, and some on the offensive line. Not to mention, their team is a mess, and they know the coach is walking dead. I like Cincy by a wide margin. Bengals 27-13.
Steelers (6-5) @ Ravens (9-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7
Actual Line: BAL by 6
Sounds like Ben is out again, and things couldn't have gone much worse for Charlie Batch last week (eight turnovers). But I still like getting points in this rivalry. Ravens 24-20.
Eagles (3-8) @ Cowboys (5-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 6.5
Actual Line: DAL by 10
So, the question is obviously whether or not the Eagles have quit on Andy Reid, and whether they'll even try to stay competitive over these next five games. With the sudden release of Jason Babin (who had 18 sacks last season), they've obviously decided to make some major changes. Pretty soon Michael Vick will be put on IR, along with Desean Jackson, and maybe LeSean McCoy. They are clearly packing it in and giving Nick Foles an audition for 2013.
But, with all the animosity in the NFC East, shouldn't Philly at least be able to put forth some effort against a hated rival? Knocking Dallas out of the playoff picture would at least give Philly fans some satisfaction.
After a long, long, long, long, looooooong foot injury kept him out of the last 40 games and totally destroyed my hopes in fantasy football, DeMarco Murray should finally be back on the field for 3 plays until he gets hurt again. His presence might give Dallas a boost. Maybe not a huge boost, but something. He's a great player if he's healthy.
This seems like an awful lot of points to be giving in a division game. Dallas has only won 1 game by 10 or more this season. But, that game was against ... the Eagles. Hmm. Probably won't happen twice. Let's say Cowboys 29-23.
Giants (7-4) @ Redskins (5-6)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 3
I like the Redskins by 3. I'm falling head over heels for RG3.
Go Lions ....
8-7-1 ATS
11-5 straight up
Overall:
89-84-6 ATS (51.4%)
108-67 straight up (61.7%)
Another week, another crushing Lions' loss.
Bill Barnwell wrote a terrific piece about the Lions' current financial troubles, and how the massive rookie deals of Calvin, Stafford and Suh are the reason why Detroit hasn't been able to build a quality roster. That's certainly a great point, and something I hadn't thought much about. Detroit had basically no choice but to give Calvin a monster extension last summer to keep him, and by doing so they were able to retain Tulloch and Avril for another year... but while it appeared great last year, very soon the crap is going to hit the fan.
They'll have to extend Stafford's deal soon, which will leave them with almost no financial flexibility. As a result. they may end up sacrificing Suh for Stafford. That seems like an tolerable proposition right now, given Suh's crotch-kicking antics and general despicableness. But he was a #2 overall pick just a few seasons ago; it would be a shame to only get a few years out of him. One thing's for sure - if the Lions could go back in time, they'd take Joe Haden with that pick, not Suh.
Despite the good points made by Barnwell about the Lions' unfortunate timing in regard to stupid rookie contracts, I still think with good coaching and a good gameplan, the Lions' secondary and O-line (their biggest weaknesses) could be much better. You don't have to get expensive players to get good players. Especially at those positions, where teamwork and cohesiveness are more important than raw skill.
Jim Schwartz's impulsive, angry, defiant decision to throw his red flag on a touchdown play was the perfect microcosm of this season. He let emotions get the best of him, he made a stupid choice that severely hurt the team, and it was completely avoidable. Heck, right after the play, when I saw his red flag on the turf, my first thought was "It's automatically reviewed, Schwartz. Calm down." Little did I realize that it was against the rules to challenge a scoring play, but now that I think about it, that rule actually makes sense. If the play is going to be reviewed anyway, why waste the refs' time explaining to the coach that it's going to be reviewed anyway? The entire goal of instant replay is to make it as instant as possible. That said, it's the refs fault for getting the call wrong in the first place, and the league should be able to make a rule-overriding exception to the no-challenge rule in cases where the ruling on the field was clearly wrong. Anytime the letter of the law trumps the spirit of the law, there is a problem. However, Schwartz of all people should have known the law, so it's his fault more than the refs. Both are idiots.
As we look ahead to the offseason and the imminent financial restrictions, it's very safe to assume that most of the unrestricted free agents will not be retained. At least not the ones that can find a better deal. These include almost the entire defense: Justin Durant, Cliff Avril, Chris Houston, Lawrence Jackson, DeAndre Levy, Jacob Lacey, Ashlee Palmer, Corey Williams, Willie Young, Erik Coleman, Drayton Florence, and a few other less vital players. The players who will command the most money will be Avril, Houston, Levy and Durant, and my guess is Detroit will only be able to keep one of them, or at most two. This could be very bad news.
I've been looking ahead to the 2013 Draft quite a bit lately, now that the Lions stand a decent chance at picking in the top 6 or 7. There's only one cornerback who is considered a top 20 prospect, and that's Alabama's Dee Miliner, a player with Revis-like skills. He's the guy I would love Detroit to grab, but they're going to have to lose 4 of their next 5 games to be in good position to take him. He's likely a top 6 pick.
If they don't address the secondary, I guess I'd like to see them add a pass rusher. VandenBosch stinks, Suh is unstable, and Avril will probably play elsewhere in 2013. There are plenty of elite DEs and OLBs, highlighted by Georgia's Jarvis Jones (possibly the #1 overall prospect), Damontre Moore from A&M, Barkevious Mingo from LSU (weirdest name ever), Dion Jordan from Oregon, and a few others. With Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young also free agents, this becomes a position of dire need.
If not a CB or DE, I guess I'd like to see the Lions take another offensive tackle. Gosder is due to be a free agent and almost certainly won't be retained, so Reiff won't be enough to rebuild the O-line. There are several early 1st round offensive tackle prospects. The best is Luke Joeckel, probably a top 5 pick, and another option is Michigan's Taylor Lewan. There's also a guard from Alabama named Chance Warmack who is considered a top 5 prospect; he might be the first guard taken in the top 15 since 1997, when Chris Naeole went 10th, just a few spots ahead of Tony Gonzalez.
If not DE, CB or OT, I guess the Lions could take a linebacker. Heisman hopefully Manti Te'o might fall to them, if the need for linebackers isn't great at the beginning of the draft. Te'o is already being called the future Patrick Willis, so if Detroit can't retain Durant and Levy, Te'o would make a super replacement. Another great linebacker would be Alec Ogeltree, who on Youtube looks more impressive to me than his more-hyped Georgia teammate Jarvis Jones.
The reality is, Detroit needs to be focusing on these positions, and only these positions. Any picks spent on receivers, running backs, tight ends, backup quarterbacks, or defensive tackles will be completely vile. Just because the Best and Titus picks turned out to be awful, don't try to rectify them at the expense of building your team. We've neglected certain positions for far too long, and can't afford to do it anymore. Plus, it's way easier to find free agent receivers and running backs than corners or offensive tackles.
If the Lions take yet another receiver because Titus hasn't worked out, it will be straight-up Millenesque.
I'm already getting frustrated in anticipation of what terrible pick they're going to make. Let's get to the stinking week 13 picks:
Saints (5-6) @ Falcons (10-1)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 3
Coming off a loss, Drew Brees tends to dominate. But that doesn't necessarily mean I'm taking the Saints.
Atlanta has the better defense, the better receivers by far, and the homefield advantage on a Thursday game. Plus they have a revenge factor after losing 2 weeks ago in New Orleans. I know this is a "must-win" game for the Saints (just like the last 7 have been), but just because a team needs to win doesn't mean they will win. Atlanta is just better. And who is going to cover Julio Jones? I'll take the Falcons 34-24.
Jaguars (2-9) @ Bills (4-7)
Predicted Line: BUF by 4
Actual Line: BUF by 6
On the road, the Jags are 1-4 this year, but they've covered the spread in all five games. They forced OT in 3 of those road games, all losses. And that was with the inferior Blaine Gabbert. Chad Henne -- who in fairness has been overhyped during the past two weeks -- represents a marked improvement over Gabbert in every way. Now, even with no running game, the Jags are actually moving the ball. Buffalo, meanwhile, kind of stinks at home, and they can't seem to score any points lately, plus they don't have anything to play for anymore. I think this becomes a battle of field goals, and stays low scoring. Bills 17-16.
Seahawks (6-5) @ Bears (8-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3.5
Actual Line: CHI by 4
The line is set at 4 on some sites, but other sites haven't posted a line until we know if Forte is going to play. With the playoffs approaching and Chicago sitting pretty at 8-3, my guess is Chicago rests Forte to make sure it doesn't get worse. Michael Bush can do a decent job in his stead.
These are two teams I really hate and pick against most of the time, so I don't know. Guess I'll take the Bears. Seattle stinks on the road. Chicago 20-13.
Colts (7-4) @ Lions (4-7)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 4.5
Well, now that the season is officially, officially over, it's a whole new dynamic. Lions' players are no longer playing for the playoffs; they're playing for themselves. In most cases, they're playing for their next contract.
What difference does that make on the field? More selfish play? More mental mistakes? It can't be a good thing, right?
Indy is steadily rolling along, winning 5 of their last 6 despite scoring only about 21 points per game. That's amazing considering Detroit usually scores 21 in the 4th quarter.
I expect Andrew Luck to have his first 3-TD game against Detroit and probably throw for about 350 yards as he continues to duel with RG3 for the most contested ROY I can ever remember. Chris Houston isn't quite good enough to hang with Reggie Wayne, and we have nobody to cover Luck's various other weapons. Despite the enormous talent disparity between these two teams (Detroit has a much better roster), I think Indy dictates the game offensively. They are better coached (then again, who isn't?) and better led by a better quarterback. Should be a couple of huge games for both Calvin and Wayne, but I think Indy comes out on top in another last-second heart-breaker. Colts 36-30.
Vikings (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5
Actual Line: GB by 9
I love the Packers this week. Something about a must-win game in Lambeau to bury a division foe. Plus, Greg Jennings is back. He took a lot of time off to make all those Old Spice commercials, but he's finally back and Rodgers will put him to use immediately. Green Bay 38-13.
Texans (10-1) @ Titans (4-7)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 6
I actually kind of like the Titans as home underdogs. Not to win, but perhaps to cover. Houston didn't thoroughly impress me last week. They just took advantage of a myriad of mistakes. I'll probably regret it as Matt Schaub throws for 490 yards, but what the heck, Houston 27-24.
Panthers (3-8) @ Chiefs (1-10)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line: CAR by 3
Huge game in terms of the Draft. Carolina really wants to keep winning, because a 6-10 season would save them a lot of embarrassment and might save the coach's job. KC wants to lose because they can't endure another season of Cassel/Quinn. After this loss they can start printing Geno Smith jerseys. Panthers 23-9.
49ers (8-2) @ Rams (4-6-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 7.5
I mean, these teams tied 24-24 a few weeks ago in San Fran, so why should the Niners be favored by a touchdown on the road? Plus, this Smith/Kaepernick thing has got to be a distraction. The Rams are 7-3 ATS as underdogs this year. I like those odds, especially at home. Niners 24-20.
Patriots (8-3) @ Dolphins (5-6)
Predicted Line: NE by 10
Actual Line: NE by 9
I'm just saying, the Pats have scored 49, 59, 37, and 45 in their last four games ... while Miami has scored 24, 14, 3 and 20. I'm not going to overthink it. New England 41-24.
Cardinals (4-7) @ Jets (4-7)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 5.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 4.5
Weirdly, the Jets are my favorite pick this week. Ryan Lindley (5 turnovers, 0 touchdowns) is starting his first road game. And the Jets had 3 extra days to prepare for him. I know he defeated Navy in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, but I still just don't trust him. Jets 20-3.
Bucs (6-5) @ Broncos (8-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 7
Both teams are on fire since starting out 1-2. Denver is especially hot, winning 6 straight and none of them have been particularly close. But I'll take the points, just in case. Broncos 31-27.
Browns (3-8) @ Raiders (3-8)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 2
Who cares. Raiders by 3.
Bengals (6-5) @ Chargers (4-7)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 2
Even if the Chargers weren't imploding during the final days of the Norv Turner Era ... and even if their record was reversed and they were 7-4 and potentially playoff-bound ... I still would lean towards Cincinnati. They've played some really solid defense lately, AJ Green looks unstoppable, and BenJarvus is coming off the best game of his career. After a four-game losing streak, they're now on the heels of a four-game winning streak.
San Diego, on the other hand, is dealing with four injuries on defense, three in the secondary, and some on the offensive line. Not to mention, their team is a mess, and they know the coach is walking dead. I like Cincy by a wide margin. Bengals 27-13.
Steelers (6-5) @ Ravens (9-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7
Actual Line: BAL by 6
Sounds like Ben is out again, and things couldn't have gone much worse for Charlie Batch last week (eight turnovers). But I still like getting points in this rivalry. Ravens 24-20.
Eagles (3-8) @ Cowboys (5-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 6.5
Actual Line: DAL by 10
So, the question is obviously whether or not the Eagles have quit on Andy Reid, and whether they'll even try to stay competitive over these next five games. With the sudden release of Jason Babin (who had 18 sacks last season), they've obviously decided to make some major changes. Pretty soon Michael Vick will be put on IR, along with Desean Jackson, and maybe LeSean McCoy. They are clearly packing it in and giving Nick Foles an audition for 2013.
But, with all the animosity in the NFC East, shouldn't Philly at least be able to put forth some effort against a hated rival? Knocking Dallas out of the playoff picture would at least give Philly fans some satisfaction.
After a long, long, long, long, looooooong foot injury kept him out of the last 40 games and totally destroyed my hopes in fantasy football, DeMarco Murray should finally be back on the field for 3 plays until he gets hurt again. His presence might give Dallas a boost. Maybe not a huge boost, but something. He's a great player if he's healthy.
This seems like an awful lot of points to be giving in a division game. Dallas has only won 1 game by 10 or more this season. But, that game was against ... the Eagles. Hmm. Probably won't happen twice. Let's say Cowboys 29-23.
Giants (7-4) @ Redskins (5-6)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 3
I like the Redskins by 3. I'm falling head over heels for RG3.
Go Lions ....
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Ramifications of a Lost Lions' Season ... plus week 12 picks
Last week:
7-7 ATS
11-3 straight up
Overall:
81-77-5 ATS (51.2%)
97-62-1 straight up (61.0%)
The Lions climbed into their own coffin when they started out 1-3. The lid was shut and the nails driven in two weeks ago against Minnesota. The coffin was buried underground with a crushing loss to Green Bay that sent us to 4-6, and now the season is over.
Detroit will not win its last 6 games. That's a fact. Not because the schedule is brutal; not because they aren't any good; not because of injuries. Just because they're the Lions, and they aren't going to.
Even if they did, they probably wouldn't beat out Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas or Tampa for the wildcard . But it's not worth talking about. It's not going to happen. Let's be honest, we're not going to win tomorrow against the 9-1 freaking Texans, let alone 6 straight.
So the season that began with so much promise has been killed in its tracks. We've gone from dreamer to downer, from hopeful to hopeless, from postseason hype to offseason gripe. "Who will we face in the Super Bowl?" has been replaced with "Who do we draft in the 1st round?"
So ... the question, as always: who's fault is it? Who do we blame? Or, in other words, what are the ramifications of this wasted season?
Let's start with two obvious questions.
Will Jim Schwartz be fired?
Answer: no.
Will Stafford remain the starting quarterback?
Answer: yes.
Usually, when a team has playoff aspirations and falls short with a 5-11 or 6-10 season, the coach and/or quarterback are in big trouble. We'll certainly see at least 8 coaches fired (probably more) and at least 8 starting QBs replaced. But Detroit won't be among them. While plenty of blame for the lost season should be given to Schwartz and Stafford, they are also the cornerstones of the team. To blow up the nucleus right now would be premature. (Though I, personally, wouldn't be upset)
So who will be fired?
Something drastic has to change. The Lions have lost too many close games to inferior opponents. The secondary has been pathetic, the play-calling has been lousy, and Detroit is one of the most penalized teams in the league, again.
Scott Linehan, the offensive coordinator, is probably safe. The Lions are 2nd in total yards, behind only New England.
That may appear impressive, until you realize we are a mediocre 15th in points scored. How does that makes sense? How do you move the ball 401 yards per game and only score 23 points?
Well .... consider these numbers:
Go Lions I guess ....
7-7 ATS
11-3 straight up
Overall:
81-77-5 ATS (51.2%)
97-62-1 straight up (61.0%)
The Lions climbed into their own coffin when they started out 1-3. The lid was shut and the nails driven in two weeks ago against Minnesota. The coffin was buried underground with a crushing loss to Green Bay that sent us to 4-6, and now the season is over.
Detroit will not win its last 6 games. That's a fact. Not because the schedule is brutal; not because they aren't any good; not because of injuries. Just because they're the Lions, and they aren't going to.
Even if they did, they probably wouldn't beat out Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas or Tampa for the wildcard . But it's not worth talking about. It's not going to happen. Let's be honest, we're not going to win tomorrow against the 9-1 freaking Texans, let alone 6 straight.
So the season that began with so much promise has been killed in its tracks. We've gone from dreamer to downer, from hopeful to hopeless, from postseason hype to offseason gripe. "Who will we face in the Super Bowl?" has been replaced with "Who do we draft in the 1st round?"
So ... the question, as always: who's fault is it? Who do we blame? Or, in other words, what are the ramifications of this wasted season?
Let's start with two obvious questions.
Will Jim Schwartz be fired?
Answer: no.
Will Stafford remain the starting quarterback?
Answer: yes.
Usually, when a team has playoff aspirations and falls short with a 5-11 or 6-10 season, the coach and/or quarterback are in big trouble. We'll certainly see at least 8 coaches fired (probably more) and at least 8 starting QBs replaced. But Detroit won't be among them. While plenty of blame for the lost season should be given to Schwartz and Stafford, they are also the cornerstones of the team. To blow up the nucleus right now would be premature. (Though I, personally, wouldn't be upset)
So who will be fired?
Something drastic has to change. The Lions have lost too many close games to inferior opponents. The secondary has been pathetic, the play-calling has been lousy, and Detroit is one of the most penalized teams in the league, again.
Scott Linehan, the offensive coordinator, is probably safe. The Lions are 2nd in total yards, behind only New England.
That may appear impressive, until you realize we are a mediocre 15th in points scored. How does that makes sense? How do you move the ball 401 yards per game and only score 23 points?
Well .... consider these numbers:
- 19th in yards per pass
- 15th in yards per carry
- 11th in third-down conversions
- 6th in offensive penalties
- 9th in turnovers
- 7th in field goals
- 1st in dropped passes
Not all of those things are Scott Linehan's fault. Most of them are Stafford's fault, or Mayhew/Lewand/Schwartz's fault for drafting the wrong players. But certainly Linehan's playcalling hasn't been any good.
If Linehan does get fired, all the NFL talking heads will say: "How can you fire the guy who coordinates the 2nd best offense in the league?!?!?!" But as I wrote last week, it's not all about yards. If it were, Detroit wouldn't be 4-6. The offense doesn't simply need yards; it needs efficiency, intelligence, cohesiveness. Linehan doesn't help in those areas. But, all that said, his job is pretty much safe.
What about the defense?
Gunther Cunningham, the 66 year old grump who looks and acts like he's 96, has led an incompetent defense for several years, giving up ridiculous amounts of yardage to players who aren't all that dynamic. It isn't completely his fault that the secondary lacks talent (again, poor drafting), but it is his job to teach the defense how to tackle and cover, and they can't do either. But more than those things, it's been a problem of penalties and discipline. Suh has regressed, VandenBosch is a liability, and Cliff Avril doesn't do anything unless it's third down. The safeties are a joke. The corners are a joke, except Chris Houston, who's hurt again. In short, Cunningham stinks as a defensive coordinator, and I'm sick of his antics.
He's the guy who called DeAndre Levy "the best linebacker I've ever coached." Really? Didn't you coach Derrick Thomas in Kansas City? Doesn't he have 126 career sacks?
He's the guy who called the Lions' secondary "one of the league's best?" Really? I mean, really????
I'm sick of his hyperbole, I'm sick of his temper tantrums, I'm sick of his old man demeanor. Mostly, I'm sick of him not being able to teach guys how to defend. Gunther needs to go.
But will he?
Probably not. He and Schwartz are buddies. They probably are a package deal.
So, who the heck is gone?
Well, you can start with the special teams coordinator. Danny Crossman. The team can't cover kicks or punts, and Stephan Logan is pathetic, with the worst average on kick returns in the league (18.6). Simply for not recognizing Logan's inability to play, Crossman should be gone. But does that solve any of our problems? Don't we need a bigger move than firing the special teams guy after a flop of a season?
What about Leshoure? Should he be replaced in the backfield by someone who can actually gain more than 8 yards?
What about KVB? Can we finally admit he's done, after two straight terrible years filled with trash talk and overpursuit and being out of position?
And the always popular question, can we finally move Backus to guard? Is Riley Reiff ready to start protecting the blindside?
Well, I think all of those questions are a yes. But my opinion doesn't matter too much.
I think the Lions need to cut their losses with Jahvid Best and find a new speed running back, and reduce Leshoure to a short-yardage back. His weed habit alone makes him a liability. I think they need to make Lawrence Jackson or Willie Young a starter at DE, and allow VandenBosch to either retire or be a great leader on the bench. And I think Backus can either play guard or enjoy play somez golf. Riley Reiff is more than ready to play left tackle. Maybe move Backus to the right side.
On top of those things, the Lions need to invest in the cornerback position, whatever it takes. They need to trade up in the 1st round and get the best CB prospect. They need to trade Titus Young or Nick Fairley or DeAndre Levy or all three and land a real cornerback who can shut somebody down. They need to actively fix their biggest weakness, or they'll repeat this crummy season again next year.
Also, they need to get rid of the rotten apples. Again, that's Titus, Fairley and Leshoure. They may be decent players, but their attitudes suck, and building a winning team requires leadership and cohesiveness. You're not getting leadership from Schwartz (too maniacal and self-obsessed), Stafford (too self-absorbed), Calvin (too introspective), or Suh (borderline psychotic). VandenBosch tries to lead, but he stinks on the field, and Delmas thinks the definition of leadership is fist fights. The only good leader on the team might be Nate Burleson. So cut the malcontents and build around guys who want to be part of a team.
So, what actually will happen?
Probably not much, unfortunately. I think the Lions' playoff appearance last season bought them all some time. Schwartz and Stafford are safe for now, but a crappy 2013 will endanger both of them, especially Schwartz. If Schwartz goes, both coordinators go. Lewand and Mayhew could be gone too; they made a few nice moves early, but the last two offseasons have been ineffective at best.
As far as personnel, I don't see many changes happening. At least not the important changes that need to happen. Detroit will probably cut ties with Logan and probably move KVB to the bench, but I doubt they'll change much else. I'd except Backus to remain at left tackle in 2013, with Reiff probably playing right tackle. I think Pettigrew and Titus (who both suck tremendously) will remain integral in the offense. And I doubt they'll do enough to fix the secondary, other than bring in a few more castoffs with NCAA skills.
So, all that to say ....
This season has been a disaster, and the Lions aren't going to do enough to make sure it doesn't happen next year. Boo.
Here are the week 12 picks:
Thanksgiving:
Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4
Too much talent. JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, Connor Barwin, Duane Brown, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Jonathan Joseph, Matt Schaub... . We are just mismatched everywhere you look. Texans 34-26.
Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3
My first reaction is to ride the momentum of RG3 and take the upset. But Carr, Claiborne and Ware will make throwing the ball a nightmare for the rookie QB. Can he and Alfred Morris move the ball on the ground enough to keep pace with Romo, who was sacked 7 times last week against Cleveland? I think so. Losing DeMarco Murray has been a blow to Dallas and caused them to become one-dimensional. Redskins 30-27.
Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)
Predicted Line: TEBOW by 3
Actual Line: NE by 7.5
Pats 37-6.
Lions Recap: This was perhaps the most pitiful game in a very pitiful season. The Lions blew at least 5 golden chances to win. Everyone is culpable, but the biggest goats are: Schwartz, VandenBosch, the refs, Pettigrew (that fumble!!), and even Hanson. Great game by the linebackers, especially Durant, and also Fairley's best game of the season. Reiff and Leshoure looked good too. Stafford looked better than in past weeks, but still not great. I'm not going to waste more time talking about this game. It was just BRUTAL. On to the rest of the picks....
(2-1 ATS so far)
Raiders (3-7) @ Bengals (5-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 7.5
Actual Line: CIN by 9
The Carson Palmer Bowl is finally here!!
I wonder if Oakland regrets trading those 1st round picks for a QB coming off major surgery who is past his prime and perennially leads the league in pick-sixes? It's tough to say ... anytime you can mortgage your franchise's future for a QB who throws 30 TDs and 27 INTs and has a record of 7-13, you pretty much have to do it.
I like the Bengals in a blowout. The fans will make sure Palmer feels plenty of hatred-vibes. Cincy 33-7.
Steelers (6-4) @ Browns (2-8)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 1
No Ben, no Leftwich. That means it's Charlie Batch against Brandon Weeden! Hide the women and children!!! Let's say Steelers 12-9 in a battle of field goals.
Bills (4-6) @ Colts (6-4)
Predicted Line: IND by 5
Actual Line: IND by 3
This game is Buffalo's last chance at the wildcard. If they lose, it's almost certainly the end of Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo. So, no pressure.
For Luck, this game means almost as much - it's about securing the playoffs in his rookie season, and it's about keeping pace with RG3 (79% completion, 8 TDs, 1 INT, 113 rushing yards in his last two games - holy crap!) in what will become the most heated Rookie of the Year battle ever. Consider that Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson and Russell Wilson are all having great years, and none of them have a chance against RG3 and Luck.
I like Indy, but I think it'll stay close with Buffalo fighting for their lives. Colts 26-24.
Broncos (7-3) @ Chiefs (1-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 11
So, this line implies that it would be DEN by 17 if the game were at Milehigh Stadium? Doesn't that seem a bit too high? I mean, I know Peyton is on a tear and the Broncos have scored 30 or more five straight times, but division games tend to be tough-fought, even when one team sucks.
On the flip side, Von Miller has probably taken the lead in the D-MVP race. He and Manning could potentially monopolize both MVP awards. That would be pretty cool. What the heck, I'll take the Broncos. I'm sick of giving KC one more chance to prove they don't suck. Denver 37-24.
Titans (4-6) @ Jaguars (1-9)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 4
Blaine Gabbert going on injured reserve is the best/worst thing that could happen to Jacksonville. Best because now Chad Henne will play and give them a chance to win some games. Worst because they might win some games and lose their chance at a top 3 pick and a franchise QB in the draft, which would force them to use a Henne/Gabbert/2nd round rookie QB combo in 2013, which would be terrible for everyone involved. (It would be exactly like what happened to Miami last year, when Matt Moore's good second half of the season helped them escape an 0-7 start and they ended up drafting Tannehill instead of Luck or RG3). Granted, there is no Luck or RG3 in the next draft, but Geno Smith might be pretty special.
I like the momentum Henne and Justin Blackmon began last week, and I like them as a 4-point homedog. Let's say Jags by 3, thus crushing my preseason pick of the Titans as a wildcard team, and giving KC a clear-road to the #1 pick.
Vikings (6-4) @ Bears (7-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 2.5 (Cutler?)
Actual Line: CHI by 7
Cutler's status is still unknown, but based on this line, Vegas probably thinks he's going to play. And, Percy Harvin was ruled out, which means the Bears entire defense can focus on AP. But nonetheless, Chicago is not 7 points better than Minnesota. Adrian Peterson has proven he can gain yards even with 8 men in the box. Furthermore, the Bears O-line stinks. Lastly, Jared Allen.
Vikings 27-23.
Falcons (9-1) @ Bucs (6-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 1
Over the last four games, Tampa has been the better team. Atlanta is still feeling pretty cocky following their 8-0 start. This is a huge statement game for Tampa at home, and I think they'll catch Atlanta overconfident. Bucs 34-26.
Seahawks (6-4) @ Dolphins (4-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3
When Seattle is favored on the road in a 1pm game, take the points and don't think twice. Miami 20-13.
Ravens (8-2) @ Chargers (4-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAL by 1
I really like the line in this game; not sure why it's so low. Baltimore is gearing up for the playoffs, while San Diego hasn't beat anybody except KC since week 2. The Bolts are busy thinking about who their next coach will be and booking offseason vacations. Baltimore will destroy them and San Diego won't even fight back. Might this be Norv's last game? Ravens 44-10.
49ers (7-2-1) @ Saints (5-5)
Predicted Line: NO by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 1
Until they lose, I'm not picking against the Saints. Especially at home when all they have to do is win by 1.
However, I'm a little nervous to pick against Colin Kaepernick, who may or may not be the starter on Sunday. (Harbaugh is playing the Mystery QB Card to the last second, which is usually annoying, but smart in this instance, because New Orleans has to prepare defensively for 2 QBs with totally different styles). Kaepernick is frighteningly good, but there's no stopping the Saints right now. Another 4 TDs for Brees. 33-31.
Rams (3-6-1) @ Cardinals (4-6)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: ARZ by 1
Remember Arizona's 4-0 start? No, me neither.
Now, 6th round rookie Ryan Lindley (who looked ghastly last week) gets the start against a much-better-than-you-think St. Louis defense. This is a dude who threw 48 interceptions in college, against such competition as Fresno St, Wyoming and UNLV. He lost a game to Louisiana-Lafayette less than one year ago. Now he has to match wits with Jeff Fisher? And the Cardinals are favored? Man, I wish Alie would let me bet real money sometimes. Rams 23-13.
Packers (7-3) @ Giants (6-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 3
There are an insane amount of road favorites this week. Ten in all. I'm surprised this isn't one of them. Green Bay has won 8 of their last 9 if you don't count that silly Seattle game where the replacement refs gave the wrong team the victory.
(Speaking of which .... how about the two worst calls of all time -- Calvin's complete-the-process-bullshit, and Justin Forsett's get-tackled-then-get-up-and-run-80-yards-and-score-an-unchallengable-TD both going against Detroit in the past 5 years. What are the odds of that.)
I like the Packers in a major revenge game. They have got to still be pissed about the 2011 playoffs. I don't care that Clay, Jennings and Woodson will be out. Rodgers will be in, and when you can get points with Aaron Rodgers, it's a very profitable spot. Let's say Packers 27-23.
Panthers (2-8) @ Eagles (3-7)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line: CAR by 3
In the Battle of Disappointing NFC Teams That Made Bold Predictions in July, I like Cam Newton a lot more than Nick Foles. Also, I think Philly officially gave up last week. Panthers 24-14.
He's the guy who called DeAndre Levy "the best linebacker I've ever coached." Really? Didn't you coach Derrick Thomas in Kansas City? Doesn't he have 126 career sacks?
He's the guy who called the Lions' secondary "one of the league's best?" Really? I mean, really????
I'm sick of his hyperbole, I'm sick of his temper tantrums, I'm sick of his old man demeanor. Mostly, I'm sick of him not being able to teach guys how to defend. Gunther needs to go.
But will he?
Probably not. He and Schwartz are buddies. They probably are a package deal.
So, who the heck is gone?
Well, you can start with the special teams coordinator. Danny Crossman. The team can't cover kicks or punts, and Stephan Logan is pathetic, with the worst average on kick returns in the league (18.6). Simply for not recognizing Logan's inability to play, Crossman should be gone. But does that solve any of our problems? Don't we need a bigger move than firing the special teams guy after a flop of a season?
What about Leshoure? Should he be replaced in the backfield by someone who can actually gain more than 8 yards?
What about KVB? Can we finally admit he's done, after two straight terrible years filled with trash talk and overpursuit and being out of position?
And the always popular question, can we finally move Backus to guard? Is Riley Reiff ready to start protecting the blindside?
Well, I think all of those questions are a yes. But my opinion doesn't matter too much.
I think the Lions need to cut their losses with Jahvid Best and find a new speed running back, and reduce Leshoure to a short-yardage back. His weed habit alone makes him a liability. I think they need to make Lawrence Jackson or Willie Young a starter at DE, and allow VandenBosch to either retire or be a great leader on the bench. And I think Backus can either play guard or enjoy play somez golf. Riley Reiff is more than ready to play left tackle. Maybe move Backus to the right side.
On top of those things, the Lions need to invest in the cornerback position, whatever it takes. They need to trade up in the 1st round and get the best CB prospect. They need to trade Titus Young or Nick Fairley or DeAndre Levy or all three and land a real cornerback who can shut somebody down. They need to actively fix their biggest weakness, or they'll repeat this crummy season again next year.
Also, they need to get rid of the rotten apples. Again, that's Titus, Fairley and Leshoure. They may be decent players, but their attitudes suck, and building a winning team requires leadership and cohesiveness. You're not getting leadership from Schwartz (too maniacal and self-obsessed), Stafford (too self-absorbed), Calvin (too introspective), or Suh (borderline psychotic). VandenBosch tries to lead, but he stinks on the field, and Delmas thinks the definition of leadership is fist fights. The only good leader on the team might be Nate Burleson. So cut the malcontents and build around guys who want to be part of a team.
So, what actually will happen?
Probably not much, unfortunately. I think the Lions' playoff appearance last season bought them all some time. Schwartz and Stafford are safe for now, but a crappy 2013 will endanger both of them, especially Schwartz. If Schwartz goes, both coordinators go. Lewand and Mayhew could be gone too; they made a few nice moves early, but the last two offseasons have been ineffective at best.
As far as personnel, I don't see many changes happening. At least not the important changes that need to happen. Detroit will probably cut ties with Logan and probably move KVB to the bench, but I doubt they'll change much else. I'd except Backus to remain at left tackle in 2013, with Reiff probably playing right tackle. I think Pettigrew and Titus (who both suck tremendously) will remain integral in the offense. And I doubt they'll do enough to fix the secondary, other than bring in a few more castoffs with NCAA skills.
So, all that to say ....
This season has been a disaster, and the Lions aren't going to do enough to make sure it doesn't happen next year. Boo.
Here are the week 12 picks:
Thanksgiving:
Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4
Too much talent. JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, Connor Barwin, Duane Brown, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Jonathan Joseph, Matt Schaub... . We are just mismatched everywhere you look. Texans 34-26.
Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3
My first reaction is to ride the momentum of RG3 and take the upset. But Carr, Claiborne and Ware will make throwing the ball a nightmare for the rookie QB. Can he and Alfred Morris move the ball on the ground enough to keep pace with Romo, who was sacked 7 times last week against Cleveland? I think so. Losing DeMarco Murray has been a blow to Dallas and caused them to become one-dimensional. Redskins 30-27.
Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)
Predicted Line: TEBOW by 3
Actual Line: NE by 7.5
Pats 37-6.
Lions Recap: This was perhaps the most pitiful game in a very pitiful season. The Lions blew at least 5 golden chances to win. Everyone is culpable, but the biggest goats are: Schwartz, VandenBosch, the refs, Pettigrew (that fumble!!), and even Hanson. Great game by the linebackers, especially Durant, and also Fairley's best game of the season. Reiff and Leshoure looked good too. Stafford looked better than in past weeks, but still not great. I'm not going to waste more time talking about this game. It was just BRUTAL. On to the rest of the picks....
(2-1 ATS so far)
Raiders (3-7) @ Bengals (5-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 7.5
Actual Line: CIN by 9
The Carson Palmer Bowl is finally here!!
I wonder if Oakland regrets trading those 1st round picks for a QB coming off major surgery who is past his prime and perennially leads the league in pick-sixes? It's tough to say ... anytime you can mortgage your franchise's future for a QB who throws 30 TDs and 27 INTs and has a record of 7-13, you pretty much have to do it.
I like the Bengals in a blowout. The fans will make sure Palmer feels plenty of hatred-vibes. Cincy 33-7.
Steelers (6-4) @ Browns (2-8)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 1
No Ben, no Leftwich. That means it's Charlie Batch against Brandon Weeden! Hide the women and children!!! Let's say Steelers 12-9 in a battle of field goals.
Bills (4-6) @ Colts (6-4)
Predicted Line: IND by 5
Actual Line: IND by 3
This game is Buffalo's last chance at the wildcard. If they lose, it's almost certainly the end of Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo. So, no pressure.
For Luck, this game means almost as much - it's about securing the playoffs in his rookie season, and it's about keeping pace with RG3 (79% completion, 8 TDs, 1 INT, 113 rushing yards in his last two games - holy crap!) in what will become the most heated Rookie of the Year battle ever. Consider that Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson and Russell Wilson are all having great years, and none of them have a chance against RG3 and Luck.
I like Indy, but I think it'll stay close with Buffalo fighting for their lives. Colts 26-24.
Broncos (7-3) @ Chiefs (1-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 11
So, this line implies that it would be DEN by 17 if the game were at Milehigh Stadium? Doesn't that seem a bit too high? I mean, I know Peyton is on a tear and the Broncos have scored 30 or more five straight times, but division games tend to be tough-fought, even when one team sucks.
On the flip side, Von Miller has probably taken the lead in the D-MVP race. He and Manning could potentially monopolize both MVP awards. That would be pretty cool. What the heck, I'll take the Broncos. I'm sick of giving KC one more chance to prove they don't suck. Denver 37-24.
Titans (4-6) @ Jaguars (1-9)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 4
Blaine Gabbert going on injured reserve is the best/worst thing that could happen to Jacksonville. Best because now Chad Henne will play and give them a chance to win some games. Worst because they might win some games and lose their chance at a top 3 pick and a franchise QB in the draft, which would force them to use a Henne/Gabbert/2nd round rookie QB combo in 2013, which would be terrible for everyone involved. (It would be exactly like what happened to Miami last year, when Matt Moore's good second half of the season helped them escape an 0-7 start and they ended up drafting Tannehill instead of Luck or RG3). Granted, there is no Luck or RG3 in the next draft, but Geno Smith might be pretty special.
I like the momentum Henne and Justin Blackmon began last week, and I like them as a 4-point homedog. Let's say Jags by 3, thus crushing my preseason pick of the Titans as a wildcard team, and giving KC a clear-road to the #1 pick.
Vikings (6-4) @ Bears (7-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 2.5 (Cutler?)
Actual Line: CHI by 7
Cutler's status is still unknown, but based on this line, Vegas probably thinks he's going to play. And, Percy Harvin was ruled out, which means the Bears entire defense can focus on AP. But nonetheless, Chicago is not 7 points better than Minnesota. Adrian Peterson has proven he can gain yards even with 8 men in the box. Furthermore, the Bears O-line stinks. Lastly, Jared Allen.
Vikings 27-23.
Falcons (9-1) @ Bucs (6-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 1
Over the last four games, Tampa has been the better team. Atlanta is still feeling pretty cocky following their 8-0 start. This is a huge statement game for Tampa at home, and I think they'll catch Atlanta overconfident. Bucs 34-26.
Seahawks (6-4) @ Dolphins (4-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3
When Seattle is favored on the road in a 1pm game, take the points and don't think twice. Miami 20-13.
Ravens (8-2) @ Chargers (4-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAL by 1
I really like the line in this game; not sure why it's so low. Baltimore is gearing up for the playoffs, while San Diego hasn't beat anybody except KC since week 2. The Bolts are busy thinking about who their next coach will be and booking offseason vacations. Baltimore will destroy them and San Diego won't even fight back. Might this be Norv's last game? Ravens 44-10.
49ers (7-2-1) @ Saints (5-5)
Predicted Line: NO by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 1
Until they lose, I'm not picking against the Saints. Especially at home when all they have to do is win by 1.
However, I'm a little nervous to pick against Colin Kaepernick, who may or may not be the starter on Sunday. (Harbaugh is playing the Mystery QB Card to the last second, which is usually annoying, but smart in this instance, because New Orleans has to prepare defensively for 2 QBs with totally different styles). Kaepernick is frighteningly good, but there's no stopping the Saints right now. Another 4 TDs for Brees. 33-31.
Rams (3-6-1) @ Cardinals (4-6)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: ARZ by 1
Remember Arizona's 4-0 start? No, me neither.
Now, 6th round rookie Ryan Lindley (who looked ghastly last week) gets the start against a much-better-than-you-think St. Louis defense. This is a dude who threw 48 interceptions in college, against such competition as Fresno St, Wyoming and UNLV. He lost a game to Louisiana-Lafayette less than one year ago. Now he has to match wits with Jeff Fisher? And the Cardinals are favored? Man, I wish Alie would let me bet real money sometimes. Rams 23-13.
Packers (7-3) @ Giants (6-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 3
There are an insane amount of road favorites this week. Ten in all. I'm surprised this isn't one of them. Green Bay has won 8 of their last 9 if you don't count that silly Seattle game where the replacement refs gave the wrong team the victory.
(Speaking of which .... how about the two worst calls of all time -- Calvin's complete-the-process-bullshit, and Justin Forsett's get-tackled-then-get-up-and-run-80-yards-and-score-an-unchallengable-TD both going against Detroit in the past 5 years. What are the odds of that.)
I like the Packers in a major revenge game. They have got to still be pissed about the 2011 playoffs. I don't care that Clay, Jennings and Woodson will be out. Rodgers will be in, and when you can get points with Aaron Rodgers, it's a very profitable spot. Let's say Packers 27-23.
Panthers (2-8) @ Eagles (3-7)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line: CAR by 3
In the Battle of Disappointing NFC Teams That Made Bold Predictions in July, I like Cam Newton a lot more than Nick Foles. Also, I think Philly officially gave up last week. Panthers 24-14.
Go Lions I guess ....
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Week 11 Picks
Last week:
6-8 ATS
8-5 straight up (one tie)
Overall:
74-70-5 ATS (51.3%)
86-59-1 straight up (59.3%)
It was another strange week. In the three primetime games, the average score was a paltry 18-10; in the 11 midday games, scoring absolutely abounded, with the winning team scoring at least 28 in all but one contest, and that contest was a 24-24 tie.
There were plenty of blowouts, some very unexpected, like Tennessee (6 point underdogs) whooping Miami by 34 on the road (glad I changed that pick) or Cincinnati (5 point underdogs) stomping the Giants.
What do we take away from those crazy contests? Is Chris Johnson finally trustworthy? Is Jake Locker a budding star? What about Andy Dalton? Is AJ Green the best receiver in the whole stinking league already? Is Miami terrible? Is Ryan Tannehill a bust? Can anyone catch the Colts and Steelers for the wildcards? What about the Giants -- are they secretly bad, or are they tricking us into forgetting about them once again so they can be the first ever "Nobody Believed In Us" mini-dynasty?
Those were just two of the crazy week 10 games. In other news, Baltimore racked up 55 points on Oakland despite being outgained in yards. The Saints and Bucs proved that the NFC South is still a division to be reckoned with. Dallas, New England and Denver showcased their high-octane offenses and scored in the high 30s. The Eagles and Cardinals extended their losing streaks to 5 games, and Detroit, Carolina, and St. Louis were essentially eliminated from the NFC playoff picture, barring a miracle. Also, four starting QBs were knocked out: Vick, Alex Smith, Cutler, and Roethlisberger. All four could sit for week 11, and Vick could be done in Philly altogether.
In the AFC, Jacksonville and KC look like the future homes of QBs Geno Smith and Matt Barkley (likely draft picks #1 and #2), as they both ride hideous 6-game losing streaks. The elite teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack, while the Jets, Bill and Chargers have fallen apart and are already looking for new coaches.
In fact, as many as ten coaches could be fired before February. Consider:
Andy Reid - Philly's "dynasty team" is 3-6 and Reid himself said before the season he would be fired if they finish 8-8 or worse.
Ron Rivera - Carolina is 2-7 after a summer of Super Bowl hype. It's truly the GM's fault, not the coach's, but nonetheless, Rivera will be back to being a defensive coordinator soon.
Chan Gailey - Chan is about to wrap up his third straight underachieving season with the Bills. Barring a blistering end to the season, he'll be gone.
Pat Shurmur - With Mike Holmgren (the guy who hired him) already gone, Shurmur will be mercifully allowed to finish the season, but won't be back unless the Browns miraculously win the rest of their games.
Norv Turner - He has a better chance at being President of the USA than being coach of the Chargers next year.
Romeo Crennel - It may or may not be his fault that the Chiefs are terrible. But when a team is as bad as the Chiefs are, especially a team with quite a bit of talent, the coach has to go. That's the nature of today's NFL.
Rex Ryan - If he would just shut up, his job would probably be safe. But all the hype and attention and trash talk really magnifies the Jets' struggles. Plus his fate is linked with Mark Sanchez, which is a bad place to be.
Jason Garrett - Personally, I think he's a decent coach. But if Dallas misses the playoffs for the third straight year, he's possibly the scapegoat.
Marvin Lewis - Ten seasons coaching the Bengals. Zero playoff wins. Could the run finally end?
Mike Mularkey - The Jags are the worst team in the NFL, but Mularkey didn't draft Blaine Gabbert, so he should be given more than one season. But who knows. If they are going to rebuild with Genoor Barkley, they may want a new coach to lead the new regime.
Dennis Allen - Another first year coach, so he's probably safe. But Oakland has been awful, and Allen makes terrible decisions that show he's in over his head.
That's eleven. And there are plenty of others (Jim Schwartz, for example) who aren't exactly earning contract extensions. It's a pretty crazy league when more than half of the coaches who don't make the playoffs are canned. But, the same thing happened last year. It's a billion-dollar industry, so I'm not feeling bad for any of them.
Personally, I would be more than happy if the Angry Era of Jim Schwartz ended in Detroit and both his clueless coordinators went with him. Maybe we could swoop in and grab Reid as the new O-Coordinator or Rivera as the D-Coordinator or something like that. Some proven winners would be a nice change.
Anyway ... here are the week 11 picks:
Dolphins (4-5) @ Bills (3-6)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: BUF by 3
Fred Jackson is out with a concussion, which actually helps the Bills, because CJ Spiller leads the NFL with 7.3 YPC and the Bills played their two best games of the season when Fred was sidelined (granted, against Cleveland and KC). Miami ranks 5th against the run, but they gave up 177 rushing yards last week to Tennessee, and they seem to be deteriorating defensively. That should make for an interesting matchup.
Miami's gameplan is simple: keep the score low. They usually succeed offensively, as they've exceeded 21 points only twice. But defensively, they go up and down, depending on the week. Against the turnover-happy Bills in cold weather, it should be safe to take the points. Especially on a Thursday, when scoring is notoriously limited. Bills win, 13-12.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1)
Predicted Line: ATL by 16.5
Actual Line: ATL by 10
How could this game possibly be close?
Falcons offense: If Patrick Peterson is guarding Roddy White, throw to Julio Jones. If Peterson guards Jones, throw to White. If Peterson somehow guards both guys, throw to Gonzalez. Build an early lead. Then run the ball.
Falcons defense: put 5 guys on Fitzgerald, completely ignore the nonexistent running back, and send pass rush at horrible O-line. Your early lead will force Kolb to throw, and you'll end up running an INT (or two) back for 6.
I just don't see it going any other way. Especially in Atlanta. I'll say Falcons go up 28-0 at halftime and win 45-10.
Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5)
Predicted Line: DAL by 8.5
Actual Line: DAL by 8
Cowboys are way too unstable to be laying 8 points. Even against Cleveland. I've learned my lesson with them too many times. Dallas 27-20.
*EDIT - Joe Haden is not going to play. In that case, I should probably take the Cowboys +8. Maybe 27-13. Ughh, I'm probably going to regret that.
Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 3.5
Remember all those 3rd downs, where Matt Stafford showed no urgency to complete a pass or move the chains, and instead willfully took a sack or threw the ball out of bounds? Remember the times it was 3rd and 8 and he threw a useless 4 yard dumpoff to Pettigrew or Joique Bell, realizing that it had no chance of moving the chains, but figuring it was better than taking a risk? Remember all those fricking plays in the red zone where he didn't even try to loft the ball to Calvin, but instead threw the ball out of bounds because a field goal is just as good as a touchdown?
Well, the reason all those plays were important ... is because now we're 4-5 and we have to play the Packers, then the Texans, then the Packers again two weeks later. Anybody ready to be 4-9? And end up 5-11? Because that's our fate. All because we couldn't beat the Vikings, Titans, and Vikings again. Those were three games we should have won. And even though the secondary and coaching have been abysmal and even though the running backs have been lousy, and even though Pettigrew is the worst football player in the universe and Stephan Logan is a disgrace and the receivers drop way too many passes and the O-line isn't great and the D-line leads the league in penalties, I still am more than willing to place the blame squarely on Matthew Stafford.
I know Stafford hasn't jumped offsides 14 times like Nick Fairley, I know he doesn't give up 70 yard touchdowns passes to wide open 3rd string receivers like our entire secondary, and I know he doesn't make the decision to run on 2nd and 10 like Scott Linehan ... but it's his inability to execute and "make plays" (pardon the cliche) that has the Lions 4-5, instead of 7-2, where they should be if they beat the teams they should have beat. And when you consider that 3 of our 4 wins were miracle comebacks, we could easily be 1-8. We've played a lot more like a 1-8 team than a 7-2 team. And by "we," I mostly mean our quarterback.
About 6 weeks ago I said that I was ready for Shaun Hill. I've held off on saying that week after week because Stafford is, after all, our franchise quarterback, the guy who threw for 5,000 yards in a year, the second fastest QB to throw for 10,000 yards, blah blah blah blah blah .....
Perhaps I'm being too critical, but I'm not that impressed by yards. I look at QB rating, turnovers, completion percentage, yards per attempt, red zone TD percentage, and third down completion percentage. Those are the stats that help you win games. I recently heard an interview with Ben Roethlisberger where they rattled off some stats about his TDs and yards, and he said the same thing "The three most important stats for a QB are completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 3rd down conversion percentage." I couldn't have agreed more.
In those areas, Stafford isn't a top 15 quarterback at all. He's barely in the top 20.
In YPA, he's below 4 rookies, including Tannehill who isn't any good.
In completion percentage, he's behind Dalton and Ponder.
In QB rating, he's sandwiched between Kolb and Bradford.
On third downs, he's comparable to Vick and Cassel.
So while his yardage marks make him the contemporary Joe Montana or Dan Marino, I question if that's more of a result of having thrown the most passes in the NFL two years in a row. (Also, should be noted he plays with that Calvin Johnson guy.)
Funny thing is, Detroit leads the NFL in passing attempts, but still manages to run an offense that's way too conservative. They run the ball and kick field goals in the first half, and consequently they've trailed at halftime in 8 of their 9 games this season (ridiculous!), which causes them to throw like maniacs in the 4th quarter.
Stafford's average game statistically has been solid: 27/43 for 302 yards. But I think it's safe to approximate that the average 1st half is 7/15 for 90 yards, and the average second half is 20/28 for 212 yards.
Heck, look at the Lions scoring by quarter this year:
1st quarter - 28 points
2nd quarter - 47 points
3rd quarter - 20 points
4th quarter - 121 points
And if you throw out the one good game Detroit has played all year (Jacksonville), it's a sum of 74 points in the first 3 quarters compared to 111 in the 4th quarter.
What the heck.
So what does this bizarre situation tell us about our Lions?
Detroit is the master of scoring garbage time points?
The coaching is terrible and doesn't make adjustments?
The playcalling sucks?
Stafford doesn't have any urgency until the 4th quarter?
Stafford is unflappable?
I say yes, to all of the above.
I'm taking the Packers, but I'm taking the points just in case. Clay Matthews and Greg Jennings are out. I'm sure their replacements will have terrific games, but anytime you're missing two stud players and are on the road, it's probably worth taking the 3 points. Packers 30-27.
*Wait, I've got one last rant about the Lions....
I'm sick and tired of everybody saying the Lions secondary has all these injury problems. Everyone is using that stupid excuse on every TV, radio and website. It's not a legitimate excuse. When your week 1 secondary is a quartet of castoffs who were cut from teams that aren't any good, and those guys get hurt and you replace them with other guys who suck, and this whole problem is because the front office drafts sexy positions instead of drafting for NEED once in a while, it's not because of the injuries that your secondary sucks. Our perfectly healthy secondary gave up 378 passing yards to Jake Locker. If all your defensive backs in Madden were a 62 out of 100, and they all got hurt and you replaced them with a bunch of 61s, would injuries really be the problem?
You know what, screw Detroit, I'm taking the Packers to cover. 37-20.
Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8)
Predicted Line: CIN by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 3.5
Beware the Arrowhead homedog! Cincy just played 3 straight at home and they're ready for a loss on the road. Plus, KC is not as bad as their record. They have some talent. Chiefs 22-17.
Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 2.5
Actual Line: STL by 3.5
Man, I hate ties. They screw everything up. Why not just play a 2nd overtime?
Picking Jets games is like going to the circus and betting on which clown is the best juggler. It's a stupid waste of time, but at least you get to see some clowns. They could win by 50, lose by 50, or anything in between. The Rams are pretty consistent, they've been competitive against everyone against New England, but I don't know about this line. I'll say Rams by 2.
Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4
Actual Line: WAS by 4
The Eagles have got to be pretty close to quitting on their season. Five-game losing streak, 2 straight blowouts, injured QB, dead-duck coach. Even with veteran leaders like Asomugha and Cole, I can't see them putting up much effort.
Washington, on the other hand, still believes they can make the playoffs. Coming off 3 tough losses, they caught a bye at the right time and finally have RG3 at 100%. He should have a terrific game, despite his lack of receiving weapons.
But the story of this game is Nick Foles, who will get the start in place of Vick.
One of the nice things about being an NFL Draft junkie is that when a guy like Foles suddenly becomes a starting QB, I already know a little bit about him. I know he's very tall, not super mobile, throws a monster deep ball, but lacks accuracy and decision making ability. I know he's a good fit for Philly because of the downfield threats with Jackson and Maclin's speed, but I think he'll struggle against NFL pass rushes and the intelligence of NFL secondaries. He'll probably throw 1 or 2 successful deep balls in this game, but he'll likely heave at least 1 interception as well. He has a long way to go to prove he can be a starting QB in the NFL, but he has the size and arm to be the next Josh Freeman or even Ben Roethlisberger. He just needs to develop the footwork, intelligence and accuracy, otherwise he'll be the next John Skelton or John Navarre.
I could certainly see this game ending up pretty close. Philly's bad offensive line will be relived to see Washington's weak pass rush, and McCoy should be able to make Foles' life a lot easier. But with Foles on the road against a division rival and the potential of Philly completely giving up and quitting on their coach, I feel better taking Washington to cover. Let's say 33-23.
Bucs (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7)
Predicted Line: TB by 1
Actual Line: TB by 2
Did you know Tampa has the league's #1 rushing defense, in terms of both yards per game and yards per attempt? It's probably safe to say Gerald McCoy has surpassed Ndamukong Suh as the best defensive tackle from the 2010 draft. How sad. But one of the biggest reasons for Tampa's stifling defense has been rookie OLB Lavonte David, who has a league-high 30 tackles in the past two weeks. You probably don't remember my final mock draft from April, but I was hoping the Lions would take Lavonte with pick 54, if he were available. I watched enough highlights of him at Nebraska to be convinced he would be an NFL stud.
Well, he was available at pick 54, but instead Detroit took Ryan Broyles, who is a nice 3rd string receiver but certainly not a 2nd round pick. If the Lions really did want to take the best player available, as they claim they do, they would have taken Lavonte David. Instead, they tried to be cute and take Broyles. Well, David just might be making a push for Defensive Rookie of the Year and might be a Pro Bowler within a couple years. If Ryan Broyles ever makes the Pro Bowl, I'll run through the mall naked on Black Friday.
Along with their #1 rushing defense, Tampa has the league's #32 passing defense, at 321 yards per game. But this is deceiving. Tampa ranks 3rd in the league with 15 INTs, and has some solid playmakers in the secondary, namely Mark Barron and Ronde Barber. Trading Aqib Talib away for peanuts may not have been very smart, and signing Eric Wright certainly wasn't smart, but the main problem with their secondary is caused by their lack of a pass rush. Adrian Clayborn's injury has been tough for them, and DaQuan Bowers hasn't panned out yet.
All that to say ... I still believe in Cam Newton, and Steve Smith should have a nice game. I like the homedog Panthers in a shootout, 38-34.
Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1)
Predicted Line: Hmmm ... let's say HOU by 17.5
Actual Line: HOU by 15.5
If Jones-Drew were playing, I'd consider taking the points. But he's not. Houston 27-0.
Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 5.5
Are the Saints the only team to ever start 0-4 and then five games later be favored by almost 6 on the road? Probably so. I'll take them anyway. Brees is on fire, the Raiders still don't have McFadden. NO 31-16.
Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 8
If Denver wins, I think Norv Turner will be fired within 24 hours. That's my hunch. And I think Norv knows this, which will part of the reason why Denver wins. Also, Peyton Manning. Broncos by 13.
Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 9
I love being right. And while I wasn't the only one who thought Andrew Luck would be a stud, I was pretty adamant about it. A lot of people forget, he would have been the #1 pick in 2011 if he declared. Remember when he stayed in school to get his architecture degree, everyone said it was so risky, he might get hurt, blah blah blah. Well, he used that year to improve, to play a pro style offense, and to basically enter the NFL without any learning curve. He was a top 15 quarterback the day he was drafted. He was a top 10 quarterback within 4 weeks. And by week 11, he has surpassed the previous three #1 overall picks: he's already a better quarterback than Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, and Sam Bradford.
The scary thing is - so is Robert Griffin.
But Luck is better than Griffin, maybe not in explosiveness or excitement, but in consistency and arm strength and for the mere fact that he's much less likely to get hurt. Back in May, I ranked the quarterbacks, and had Luck at 15 before he played a single game. Now, if I redid that list, Luck would leap past several quarterbacks, including Vick, Flacco, Cam, Stafford and Rivers.
I would still put Rodgers and Brady at 1 and 2, with Brees, Matt Ryan, and Peyton rounding out the top 5, and then Eli and Ben at 6 and 7. Then, it's probably Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Tony Romo in the top 10.
Then ... Schaub, Flacco, Rivers ... Cutler, Stafford, Cam .... Freeman, Dalton, Ponder, Locker, Bradford... Alex Smith, Mike Vick, Russell Wilson ... Fitzpatrick, Kolb, Sanchez, Palmer ... Tannehill, Gabbert, Cassell, Weeden. That's 32. I guess Tebow squeezes in somewhere between Fitzpatrick and Kolb.
So anyway, I'm taking the Patriots to win, given the Colts terrible roster, but I certainly think Andrew Luck can keep the score close. Maybe Aqib Talib shuts down Reggie Wayne in his first game as a Patriot, but maybe Andrew Luck finds someone else to throw to. Pats 27-23.
Ravens (7-2) @ Steelers (6-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3.5 (Roethlisberger out)
Actual Line: BAL by 3.5
93% of the betting is on Baltimore, so Vegas must be thinking they are awfully sneaky with this line so low. What's the reason - is Byron Leftwich going to be better than people think? Is Pittsburgh's defense finally healthy? Will it be the Heinz Field factor that keeps this game close?
Back in 2010 when Ben had to sit for 4 games, the Steelers went 3-1, and the loss was a home game against Baltimore. Final score: 17-14. A lot has changed in two years, but Mike Tomlin, Troy Polamalu, and 65,000 screaming, stupid Pittsburgh fans will still be there, so I expect the same result. 17-14 Ravens.
Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 5.5 (Cutler and Smith both out?)
Actual Line: SF by 5
Sounds like Alex Smith might play, and Jay Cutler definitely won't. Regardless of who the quarterbacks are, I'm all over San Fran for this game. I'll say Niners 23-13. And if Smith sits, I think Colin Kaepernick has a great game. That dude can play. Jason Campbell, I'm not so sure.
That's it for now. GO Lions!!!
Also, Torii Hunter!! Hitting in the 2-hole ahead of Miggy, Prince and V-Mart. That's an amazing top 5. I can't wait to see how Leyland mismanages that roster!
6-8 ATS
8-5 straight up (one tie)
Overall:
74-70-5 ATS (51.3%)
86-59-1 straight up (59.3%)
It was another strange week. In the three primetime games, the average score was a paltry 18-10; in the 11 midday games, scoring absolutely abounded, with the winning team scoring at least 28 in all but one contest, and that contest was a 24-24 tie.
There were plenty of blowouts, some very unexpected, like Tennessee (6 point underdogs) whooping Miami by 34 on the road (glad I changed that pick) or Cincinnati (5 point underdogs) stomping the Giants.
What do we take away from those crazy contests? Is Chris Johnson finally trustworthy? Is Jake Locker a budding star? What about Andy Dalton? Is AJ Green the best receiver in the whole stinking league already? Is Miami terrible? Is Ryan Tannehill a bust? Can anyone catch the Colts and Steelers for the wildcards? What about the Giants -- are they secretly bad, or are they tricking us into forgetting about them once again so they can be the first ever "Nobody Believed In Us" mini-dynasty?
Those were just two of the crazy week 10 games. In other news, Baltimore racked up 55 points on Oakland despite being outgained in yards. The Saints and Bucs proved that the NFC South is still a division to be reckoned with. Dallas, New England and Denver showcased their high-octane offenses and scored in the high 30s. The Eagles and Cardinals extended their losing streaks to 5 games, and Detroit, Carolina, and St. Louis were essentially eliminated from the NFC playoff picture, barring a miracle. Also, four starting QBs were knocked out: Vick, Alex Smith, Cutler, and Roethlisberger. All four could sit for week 11, and Vick could be done in Philly altogether.
In the AFC, Jacksonville and KC look like the future homes of QBs Geno Smith and Matt Barkley (likely draft picks #1 and #2), as they both ride hideous 6-game losing streaks. The elite teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack, while the Jets, Bill and Chargers have fallen apart and are already looking for new coaches.
In fact, as many as ten coaches could be fired before February. Consider:
Andy Reid - Philly's "dynasty team" is 3-6 and Reid himself said before the season he would be fired if they finish 8-8 or worse.
Ron Rivera - Carolina is 2-7 after a summer of Super Bowl hype. It's truly the GM's fault, not the coach's, but nonetheless, Rivera will be back to being a defensive coordinator soon.
Chan Gailey - Chan is about to wrap up his third straight underachieving season with the Bills. Barring a blistering end to the season, he'll be gone.
Pat Shurmur - With Mike Holmgren (the guy who hired him) already gone, Shurmur will be mercifully allowed to finish the season, but won't be back unless the Browns miraculously win the rest of their games.
Norv Turner - He has a better chance at being President of the USA than being coach of the Chargers next year.
Romeo Crennel - It may or may not be his fault that the Chiefs are terrible. But when a team is as bad as the Chiefs are, especially a team with quite a bit of talent, the coach has to go. That's the nature of today's NFL.
Rex Ryan - If he would just shut up, his job would probably be safe. But all the hype and attention and trash talk really magnifies the Jets' struggles. Plus his fate is linked with Mark Sanchez, which is a bad place to be.
Jason Garrett - Personally, I think he's a decent coach. But if Dallas misses the playoffs for the third straight year, he's possibly the scapegoat.
Marvin Lewis - Ten seasons coaching the Bengals. Zero playoff wins. Could the run finally end?
Mike Mularkey - The Jags are the worst team in the NFL, but Mularkey didn't draft Blaine Gabbert, so he should be given more than one season. But who knows. If they are going to rebuild with Genoor Barkley, they may want a new coach to lead the new regime.
Dennis Allen - Another first year coach, so he's probably safe. But Oakland has been awful, and Allen makes terrible decisions that show he's in over his head.
That's eleven. And there are plenty of others (Jim Schwartz, for example) who aren't exactly earning contract extensions. It's a pretty crazy league when more than half of the coaches who don't make the playoffs are canned. But, the same thing happened last year. It's a billion-dollar industry, so I'm not feeling bad for any of them.
Personally, I would be more than happy if the Angry Era of Jim Schwartz ended in Detroit and both his clueless coordinators went with him. Maybe we could swoop in and grab Reid as the new O-Coordinator or Rivera as the D-Coordinator or something like that. Some proven winners would be a nice change.
Anyway ... here are the week 11 picks:
Dolphins (4-5) @ Bills (3-6)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: BUF by 3
Fred Jackson is out with a concussion, which actually helps the Bills, because CJ Spiller leads the NFL with 7.3 YPC and the Bills played their two best games of the season when Fred was sidelined (granted, against Cleveland and KC). Miami ranks 5th against the run, but they gave up 177 rushing yards last week to Tennessee, and they seem to be deteriorating defensively. That should make for an interesting matchup.
Miami's gameplan is simple: keep the score low. They usually succeed offensively, as they've exceeded 21 points only twice. But defensively, they go up and down, depending on the week. Against the turnover-happy Bills in cold weather, it should be safe to take the points. Especially on a Thursday, when scoring is notoriously limited. Bills win, 13-12.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1)
Predicted Line: ATL by 16.5
Actual Line: ATL by 10
How could this game possibly be close?
Falcons offense: If Patrick Peterson is guarding Roddy White, throw to Julio Jones. If Peterson guards Jones, throw to White. If Peterson somehow guards both guys, throw to Gonzalez. Build an early lead. Then run the ball.
Falcons defense: put 5 guys on Fitzgerald, completely ignore the nonexistent running back, and send pass rush at horrible O-line. Your early lead will force Kolb to throw, and you'll end up running an INT (or two) back for 6.
I just don't see it going any other way. Especially in Atlanta. I'll say Falcons go up 28-0 at halftime and win 45-10.
Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5)
Predicted Line: DAL by 8.5
Actual Line: DAL by 8
Cowboys are way too unstable to be laying 8 points. Even against Cleveland. I've learned my lesson with them too many times. Dallas 27-20.
*EDIT - Joe Haden is not going to play. In that case, I should probably take the Cowboys +8. Maybe 27-13. Ughh, I'm probably going to regret that.
Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 3.5
Remember all those 3rd downs, where Matt Stafford showed no urgency to complete a pass or move the chains, and instead willfully took a sack or threw the ball out of bounds? Remember the times it was 3rd and 8 and he threw a useless 4 yard dumpoff to Pettigrew or Joique Bell, realizing that it had no chance of moving the chains, but figuring it was better than taking a risk? Remember all those fricking plays in the red zone where he didn't even try to loft the ball to Calvin, but instead threw the ball out of bounds because a field goal is just as good as a touchdown?
Well, the reason all those plays were important ... is because now we're 4-5 and we have to play the Packers, then the Texans, then the Packers again two weeks later. Anybody ready to be 4-9? And end up 5-11? Because that's our fate. All because we couldn't beat the Vikings, Titans, and Vikings again. Those were three games we should have won. And even though the secondary and coaching have been abysmal and even though the running backs have been lousy, and even though Pettigrew is the worst football player in the universe and Stephan Logan is a disgrace and the receivers drop way too many passes and the O-line isn't great and the D-line leads the league in penalties, I still am more than willing to place the blame squarely on Matthew Stafford.
I know Stafford hasn't jumped offsides 14 times like Nick Fairley, I know he doesn't give up 70 yard touchdowns passes to wide open 3rd string receivers like our entire secondary, and I know he doesn't make the decision to run on 2nd and 10 like Scott Linehan ... but it's his inability to execute and "make plays" (pardon the cliche) that has the Lions 4-5, instead of 7-2, where they should be if they beat the teams they should have beat. And when you consider that 3 of our 4 wins were miracle comebacks, we could easily be 1-8. We've played a lot more like a 1-8 team than a 7-2 team. And by "we," I mostly mean our quarterback.
About 6 weeks ago I said that I was ready for Shaun Hill. I've held off on saying that week after week because Stafford is, after all, our franchise quarterback, the guy who threw for 5,000 yards in a year, the second fastest QB to throw for 10,000 yards, blah blah blah blah blah .....
Perhaps I'm being too critical, but I'm not that impressed by yards. I look at QB rating, turnovers, completion percentage, yards per attempt, red zone TD percentage, and third down completion percentage. Those are the stats that help you win games. I recently heard an interview with Ben Roethlisberger where they rattled off some stats about his TDs and yards, and he said the same thing "The three most important stats for a QB are completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 3rd down conversion percentage." I couldn't have agreed more.
In those areas, Stafford isn't a top 15 quarterback at all. He's barely in the top 20.
In YPA, he's below 4 rookies, including Tannehill who isn't any good.
In completion percentage, he's behind Dalton and Ponder.
In QB rating, he's sandwiched between Kolb and Bradford.
On third downs, he's comparable to Vick and Cassel.
So while his yardage marks make him the contemporary Joe Montana or Dan Marino, I question if that's more of a result of having thrown the most passes in the NFL two years in a row. (Also, should be noted he plays with that Calvin Johnson guy.)
Funny thing is, Detroit leads the NFL in passing attempts, but still manages to run an offense that's way too conservative. They run the ball and kick field goals in the first half, and consequently they've trailed at halftime in 8 of their 9 games this season (ridiculous!), which causes them to throw like maniacs in the 4th quarter.
Stafford's average game statistically has been solid: 27/43 for 302 yards. But I think it's safe to approximate that the average 1st half is 7/15 for 90 yards, and the average second half is 20/28 for 212 yards.
Heck, look at the Lions scoring by quarter this year:
1st quarter - 28 points
2nd quarter - 47 points
3rd quarter - 20 points
4th quarter - 121 points
And if you throw out the one good game Detroit has played all year (Jacksonville), it's a sum of 74 points in the first 3 quarters compared to 111 in the 4th quarter.
What the heck.
So what does this bizarre situation tell us about our Lions?
Detroit is the master of scoring garbage time points?
The coaching is terrible and doesn't make adjustments?
The playcalling sucks?
Stafford doesn't have any urgency until the 4th quarter?
Stafford is unflappable?
I say yes, to all of the above.
I'm taking the Packers, but I'm taking the points just in case. Clay Matthews and Greg Jennings are out. I'm sure their replacements will have terrific games, but anytime you're missing two stud players and are on the road, it's probably worth taking the 3 points. Packers 30-27.
*Wait, I've got one last rant about the Lions....
I'm sick and tired of everybody saying the Lions secondary has all these injury problems. Everyone is using that stupid excuse on every TV, radio and website. It's not a legitimate excuse. When your week 1 secondary is a quartet of castoffs who were cut from teams that aren't any good, and those guys get hurt and you replace them with other guys who suck, and this whole problem is because the front office drafts sexy positions instead of drafting for NEED once in a while, it's not because of the injuries that your secondary sucks. Our perfectly healthy secondary gave up 378 passing yards to Jake Locker. If all your defensive backs in Madden were a 62 out of 100, and they all got hurt and you replaced them with a bunch of 61s, would injuries really be the problem?
You know what, screw Detroit, I'm taking the Packers to cover. 37-20.
Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8)
Predicted Line: CIN by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 3.5
Beware the Arrowhead homedog! Cincy just played 3 straight at home and they're ready for a loss on the road. Plus, KC is not as bad as their record. They have some talent. Chiefs 22-17.
Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 2.5
Actual Line: STL by 3.5
Man, I hate ties. They screw everything up. Why not just play a 2nd overtime?
Picking Jets games is like going to the circus and betting on which clown is the best juggler. It's a stupid waste of time, but at least you get to see some clowns. They could win by 50, lose by 50, or anything in between. The Rams are pretty consistent, they've been competitive against everyone against New England, but I don't know about this line. I'll say Rams by 2.
Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4
Actual Line: WAS by 4
The Eagles have got to be pretty close to quitting on their season. Five-game losing streak, 2 straight blowouts, injured QB, dead-duck coach. Even with veteran leaders like Asomugha and Cole, I can't see them putting up much effort.
Washington, on the other hand, still believes they can make the playoffs. Coming off 3 tough losses, they caught a bye at the right time and finally have RG3 at 100%. He should have a terrific game, despite his lack of receiving weapons.
But the story of this game is Nick Foles, who will get the start in place of Vick.
One of the nice things about being an NFL Draft junkie is that when a guy like Foles suddenly becomes a starting QB, I already know a little bit about him. I know he's very tall, not super mobile, throws a monster deep ball, but lacks accuracy and decision making ability. I know he's a good fit for Philly because of the downfield threats with Jackson and Maclin's speed, but I think he'll struggle against NFL pass rushes and the intelligence of NFL secondaries. He'll probably throw 1 or 2 successful deep balls in this game, but he'll likely heave at least 1 interception as well. He has a long way to go to prove he can be a starting QB in the NFL, but he has the size and arm to be the next Josh Freeman or even Ben Roethlisberger. He just needs to develop the footwork, intelligence and accuracy, otherwise he'll be the next John Skelton or John Navarre.
I could certainly see this game ending up pretty close. Philly's bad offensive line will be relived to see Washington's weak pass rush, and McCoy should be able to make Foles' life a lot easier. But with Foles on the road against a division rival and the potential of Philly completely giving up and quitting on their coach, I feel better taking Washington to cover. Let's say 33-23.
Bucs (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7)
Predicted Line: TB by 1
Actual Line: TB by 2
Did you know Tampa has the league's #1 rushing defense, in terms of both yards per game and yards per attempt? It's probably safe to say Gerald McCoy has surpassed Ndamukong Suh as the best defensive tackle from the 2010 draft. How sad. But one of the biggest reasons for Tampa's stifling defense has been rookie OLB Lavonte David, who has a league-high 30 tackles in the past two weeks. You probably don't remember my final mock draft from April, but I was hoping the Lions would take Lavonte with pick 54, if he were available. I watched enough highlights of him at Nebraska to be convinced he would be an NFL stud.
Well, he was available at pick 54, but instead Detroit took Ryan Broyles, who is a nice 3rd string receiver but certainly not a 2nd round pick. If the Lions really did want to take the best player available, as they claim they do, they would have taken Lavonte David. Instead, they tried to be cute and take Broyles. Well, David just might be making a push for Defensive Rookie of the Year and might be a Pro Bowler within a couple years. If Ryan Broyles ever makes the Pro Bowl, I'll run through the mall naked on Black Friday.
Along with their #1 rushing defense, Tampa has the league's #32 passing defense, at 321 yards per game. But this is deceiving. Tampa ranks 3rd in the league with 15 INTs, and has some solid playmakers in the secondary, namely Mark Barron and Ronde Barber. Trading Aqib Talib away for peanuts may not have been very smart, and signing Eric Wright certainly wasn't smart, but the main problem with their secondary is caused by their lack of a pass rush. Adrian Clayborn's injury has been tough for them, and DaQuan Bowers hasn't panned out yet.
All that to say ... I still believe in Cam Newton, and Steve Smith should have a nice game. I like the homedog Panthers in a shootout, 38-34.
Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1)
Predicted Line: Hmmm ... let's say HOU by 17.5
Actual Line: HOU by 15.5
If Jones-Drew were playing, I'd consider taking the points. But he's not. Houston 27-0.
Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 5.5
Are the Saints the only team to ever start 0-4 and then five games later be favored by almost 6 on the road? Probably so. I'll take them anyway. Brees is on fire, the Raiders still don't have McFadden. NO 31-16.
Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 8
If Denver wins, I think Norv Turner will be fired within 24 hours. That's my hunch. And I think Norv knows this, which will part of the reason why Denver wins. Also, Peyton Manning. Broncos by 13.
Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 9
I love being right. And while I wasn't the only one who thought Andrew Luck would be a stud, I was pretty adamant about it. A lot of people forget, he would have been the #1 pick in 2011 if he declared. Remember when he stayed in school to get his architecture degree, everyone said it was so risky, he might get hurt, blah blah blah. Well, he used that year to improve, to play a pro style offense, and to basically enter the NFL without any learning curve. He was a top 15 quarterback the day he was drafted. He was a top 10 quarterback within 4 weeks. And by week 11, he has surpassed the previous three #1 overall picks: he's already a better quarterback than Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, and Sam Bradford.
The scary thing is - so is Robert Griffin.
But Luck is better than Griffin, maybe not in explosiveness or excitement, but in consistency and arm strength and for the mere fact that he's much less likely to get hurt. Back in May, I ranked the quarterbacks, and had Luck at 15 before he played a single game. Now, if I redid that list, Luck would leap past several quarterbacks, including Vick, Flacco, Cam, Stafford and Rivers.
I would still put Rodgers and Brady at 1 and 2, with Brees, Matt Ryan, and Peyton rounding out the top 5, and then Eli and Ben at 6 and 7. Then, it's probably Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Tony Romo in the top 10.
Then ... Schaub, Flacco, Rivers ... Cutler, Stafford, Cam .... Freeman, Dalton, Ponder, Locker, Bradford... Alex Smith, Mike Vick, Russell Wilson ... Fitzpatrick, Kolb, Sanchez, Palmer ... Tannehill, Gabbert, Cassell, Weeden. That's 32. I guess Tebow squeezes in somewhere between Fitzpatrick and Kolb.
So anyway, I'm taking the Patriots to win, given the Colts terrible roster, but I certainly think Andrew Luck can keep the score close. Maybe Aqib Talib shuts down Reggie Wayne in his first game as a Patriot, but maybe Andrew Luck finds someone else to throw to. Pats 27-23.
Ravens (7-2) @ Steelers (6-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3.5 (Roethlisberger out)
Actual Line: BAL by 3.5
93% of the betting is on Baltimore, so Vegas must be thinking they are awfully sneaky with this line so low. What's the reason - is Byron Leftwich going to be better than people think? Is Pittsburgh's defense finally healthy? Will it be the Heinz Field factor that keeps this game close?
Back in 2010 when Ben had to sit for 4 games, the Steelers went 3-1, and the loss was a home game against Baltimore. Final score: 17-14. A lot has changed in two years, but Mike Tomlin, Troy Polamalu, and 65,000 screaming, stupid Pittsburgh fans will still be there, so I expect the same result. 17-14 Ravens.
Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 5.5 (Cutler and Smith both out?)
Actual Line: SF by 5
Sounds like Alex Smith might play, and Jay Cutler definitely won't. Regardless of who the quarterbacks are, I'm all over San Fran for this game. I'll say Niners 23-13. And if Smith sits, I think Colin Kaepernick has a great game. That dude can play. Jason Campbell, I'm not so sure.
That's it for now. GO Lions!!!
Also, Torii Hunter!! Hitting in the 2-hole ahead of Miggy, Prince and V-Mart. That's an amazing top 5. I can't wait to see how Leyland mismanages that roster!