Fantasy Football is Fast Approaching

Due to circumstances beyond my control, I have not been able to devote dozens of hours to fantasy football preparation this year.  That’s probably a good thing, as it never helps anyway.  This year I’m going with the “don’t overthink it” approach, which seems to work for everybody else.  

However, out of habit I am compiling my fantasy rankings and general thoughts.  

Let’s start with quarterbacks.

To me, it’s a Big 5 this year, and then a very, very deep class, maybe the deepest QB class in fantasy history. 

Rodgers is the only guy I would consider in the 1st round, because he has the complete package – passing yards, passing TDs, rushing yards, durability, huge game potential, all-time great in his prime.

I have Peyton second, narrowly ahead of Kaepernick, and here’s why:  Peyton is less likely to get hurt, he’ll be more consistent, he plays in a weak division, and Kaepernick lost his only legitimate receiver in Crabtree.

There’s actually quite a few things not to like about Kaep – 4 games against the Rams and Seahawks for starters. And the aforementioned lack of receivers, the fact that San Fran is a run-first team, and especially the fact that he only has 10 starts under his belt. But his big-game potential is unprecedented, which is why he’s the definition of high-risk, high-reward at the QB position. As he showed in the postseason, he can put up 100 rushing yards in a single quarter; he has Denard Robinson potential with his legs; he plays for an elite team with an elite offensive line and an elite coach who knows how to get the most out of QBs; he’s got Vernon Davis in the end zone; and unlike the tantalizing run-first QBs of the past, he can really throw the ball.

So, I’ve got Kaepernick ranked 3rd, ahead of Brees and Brady, which probably means I’ll end up with him in most of my leagues, and I'm okay with that.  I like Brees 4th – you can count on tons of yards, but a few too many INTs. Brady drops to 5th, not because I’m worried about the loss of his entire receiving corps (the guy invented the concept of turning nobodies into stars), but because I think New England is slowly becoming a running team.  Belichick is always ahead of the curve on these things. He'll wisely try to preserve Brady’s career with a lot more running plays and a lot less running up the score. Still, Brady's a top 5 fantasy QB and a guy you never want playing against you.

After the Big 5, it’s a toss-up.  Stafford will throw 700 passes and he has Megatron; RG3 could be better than Kaepernick if his knee holds up; Andrew Luck is the next Aaron Rodgers, but probably not til 2014; and nobody wants to bet against Russell Wilson.  Then there’s Cam Newton (top 5 QB potential); Matt Ryan (ditto); Josh Freeman (I love the Bucs this year); Tony Romo (great numbers but you never feel good about him); Eli Manning (durable and consistent); Jay Cutler (good weapons around him); and Sam Bradford (solid sleeper). Heck, you can even take a flier on Carson Palmer (who has Fitzgerald) or Michael Vick (Chip Kelly offense!) if you want, which technically means Christian Ponder is the only QB in the NFC who is not worthy of a roster spot.

The AFC is much, much more desolate. You want absolutely nothing to do with KC, Oakland, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Buffalo, or the Jets. Dalton, Tannehill, Schaub, Rivers and Flacco are desperation options at best. Roethlisberger is a decent fantasy backup. But outside of Peyton, Brady and Luck, you want to stick to the NFC.

In the past, when there were only a handful of reliable QB options, it was vital to grab a QB in the first 3 rounds.  This year, unless the value is exceptional, you should wait until round 6 or 7 to find your quarterback.   

This is especially prudent when you consider that this is the weakest class of running backs in at least a decade.  Spending early picks on RBs has never been more important.  Last year, the RB position was bleak; this year, it’s even bleaker.

Of course, if you have the #1 pick you’re all set. Take AP and don’t think twice. Then on the way back take a RB along with a top WR.  Don’t overthink it.

The rest of the top 5 is debatable. If you’re picking #2, do you take Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Trent Richardson, or Jamaal Charles? What about Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller?  Have their ever been so many viable options in the top 8 but none of whom seem like great #2 overall picks?

To me, Rice and Foster are the epitome of consistency, and that’s what you need in the first round. However, both come with the same red flag.  Both guys have been overworked in recent years and have budding stars behind them on the depth chart (Bernard Pierce in Baltimore, Ben Tate in Houston). Either situation could turn into a dreaded committee backfield and crush your season. 

Martin and Richardson are the young and sexy options, but the concern is simple: are they experienced enough to trust?  Will the sophomore slump strike?  Richardson is the better talent and runs behind Joe Thomas, but he’ll see 8 or 9 in the box every down. Martin plays on a better offense and faces weaker defenses in his division.  Both guys will catch a ton of passes and handle the goal-line carries.  You can’t go wrong either way, but does either guy warrant the #2 pick?

That leaves Lynch – the guy who used to be synonymous with lazy bum.  Now he’s reborn in Seattle, chowing down on Skittles and proving he’s no fluke.  He has a QB that scares defenses, a coach who knows how to motivate him, and an offensive line that controls the line of scrimmage. Most importantly, he runs like a psycho and gets all the work within the 10-yard line.  To me, Marshawn Lynch is the best choice at pick #2. (Never thought I would say that).

Lynch’s former backup, CJ Spiller, is also a chic pick in the top 5, but my concern is that Fred Jackson will steal the red-zone carries.  With Spiller, as with Charles and Chris Johnson, you’re relying on the 60-yard TDs.  Of those 3 guys, I actually like Charles more than the others.  Spiller's a close second.  Chris Johnson I don’t like at all, which of course means he’ll run for 2,500 yards and single-handedly win fantasy championships for everyone who drafts him.

So - here are my top 9 running backs:  AP, Lynch, Foster, Rice, Martin, Richardson, Charles, Spiller, Chris Johnson.  I would squeeze Calvin in between Richardson and Charles, and Rodgers between Spiller and Chris Johnson. 

Absent from my top 10 are two guys with untrustworthy coaches.  That would be Alfred Morris and Stevan Ridley.  If you want to pin your hopes to Shanahan or Belichick not suddenly flipping the script and going with a stupid RBBC, be my guest.  But those two guys have dashed more fantasy seasons than any two monsters on earth, and I won’t let them destroy my year again (see: Tatum Bell, 2006; Lawrence Maroney, 2007; and countless others).  

Another guy I don’t love is McCoy, who has top 10 talent and plays on what is being called a “high-octane offense.”  With All Pro left tackle Jason Peters coming back from injury, I should be giddy about Philly’s offense making a comeback into fantasy relevance, and McCoy should be the main beneficiary.  But, Maclin’s year-ending injury, Vick’s degeneration, and Chip Kelly’s inexperience make me leery. Once Nick Foles in under center, McCoy will be looking at 9 in the box. That’s what doomed Chris Johnson, and McCoy is less talented than him. No thanks. 

Four totally unsexy picks who can help you win your league in the 10-15 range of the draft are Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson.  There’s nothing more boring than pick like this, but when you try to be cute and take a Dez Bryant or a Gronkowski at the end of the 1st round, somebody else is securing one of these guys and a 1,200 yard, 9 TD season at least. 

Running backs are more injury-prone than receivers, but they’re also more rare at the top.  This is the year to spend your 2nd round pick on a boring running back. 

Outside of the 16 running backs I’ve mentioned so far, you have a lot of risk factor. 

Darren McFadden? If you like being miserable.  

DeMarco “Questionable” Murray?  No freaking thanks.

Ryan “Mega-Bust” Matthews? Stay away!

Darren Sproles?  He gets about 3 carries per game.

Reggie Bush?  About 8 carries a game and a mid-season injury.

Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, Gio Bernard, LeVeon Bell?  Tempting, especially in keeper leagues, but it’s never fun to trust a rookie RB.  Bernard has the skills, Lacy and Ball have the best situations. If I have to take one of these guys it's Gio.  

What about David Wilson?  He has all the makings of a breakout RB with the Giants’ backfield all to himself.  Andre Brown probably gets the goal-line work, but Wilson should rank above the perennially-injury-prone and the rookies. 

A couple of potential unsexy picks that will compile nice stats would include Chris Ivory (the workhorse for a terrible Jets team), Lamar Miller (should have the Miami job mostly to himself), and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (he knows how to find the end-zone).  

I’d steer clear of the crowded Carolina backfield, avoid Rashard Mendenhall and all other Cardinals like the plague, and don’t get cute with the Rams’ Richardson/Pead/Stacy situation.

Ahmad Bradshaw on the Colts is intriguing. You can get great value for an injury-prone, fumble-prone guy who has been utterly forgotten, but now goes to a playoff team that will be able to move the ball. 

Before you move on to the next crop of TD vultures and timeshare guys, you’ve got to consider drafting the top level of handcuffs:  Tate, Pierce, Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown (Philly), and Robert Turbin (Seattle). Those guys are an injury away from being 1st or 2nd round picks.

Shane Vereen will replace Danny Woodhead as the maddening Patriot who does nothing, does nothing, and then all of a sudden puts up 30 points. You could take him if you like suffering. 

Mikel Leshoure might lead the NFL in worthless carries of 2 yards, but he also might score 6 -8 TDs so he’s probably worth a bench spot. 

As you can see, the crop of fantasy running backs is abnormally slim this year.  That's why it's wise to stock up of 3 or 4 of them early and spend your 10th, 11th, and 12th round picks on receivers, where depth is much greater.  If you draft any running backs in the late rounds, you’ll likely end up dropping them 2 weeks later.  Remember, the free agent wonders of the RB world are undrafted guys like Peyton Hillis.  When injuries happen, the backups who emerge usually surprise us.   

So let’s move onto receiver, where the king is Calvin Johnson, the all-time record holder for receiving yards in a season.  The only question with Megatron is how early he goes in the 1st round.  Probably in the top 7 in Michigan leagues.  Despite my well-documented dislike of Stafford, I think Mega will actually improve on his historic season from a fantasy perspective, by tripling his touchdowns from 5 to 15 and still putting up 1,800+ yards.   He’s a legit top 5 pick, especially if you’re a Lions fan.  Heck, he might be the #2 pick after Peterson.  

The second-most talented receiver in the NFL is A.J. Green, but I’m not sure I’d take him over Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall or even Demaryius Thomas.  Green has all the skills, but his QB lacks the arm strength to make consistent big plays downfield.   Any one of these guys is a solid second round pick though, and it’s up to you who you feel good about.

After this group of 6,  I don’t know who else I like. Andre Johnson and Roddy White seem like two guys on the sharp decline, but both had monster years in 2012, so maybe not. Randall Cobb seems to be the Packers’ new #1 receiver, but he’s more of a slot guy than a downfield threat. Larry Fitzgerald has the talent to be up there with Calvin and A.J., but he’s on the Cardinals and he was miserable last year (he's kind of the Dwight Howard of the NFL, nobody really likes him anymore).  He will undoubtedly improve on last year’s pathetic 4 scores and 798 yards but is he still being drafted too early? 

What about Vincent Jackson, who is good for a 50-yard TD every other game? And don’t forget Wes Welker, who resettles in Denver and is out to prove he can play without Tom Brady.  The Giants should utilize Cruz and Nicks equally, mking both guys good picks but neither guy a stud.  Colston and Wayne benefit from playing with excellent QBs; they are safe but unsexy 4th/5th rounders. 

Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe and Steve Smith are lousy picks unless they drop unusually late; you can find Antonio Brown, Danny Amendola, Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon and Steve Johnson at a better value and get less of a headache.

I love four rookies from this class: Tavon Austin (Rams), DeAndre Hopkins (Texans), Kenbrell Thompkins (Pats), and Cordarelle Patterson (Vikings).  These guys are extra valuable in keeper leagues; you can get them very late in normal rounds, and they might provide great value.

A few more random thoughts on the receiver position …

-Don’t buy the Ryan Broyles hype. He won’t stay healthy.  

-The is the year I finally stop buying into the fast Oakland receivers. I won’t even think about any of them.

-Buffalo’s no-huddle offense and quick tempo should make their games high scoring and give all their receivers an uptick of value. This makes Robert Woods intriguing late.

-Miles Austin is not washed up. But he is a late round value.

-Anquan Boldin is washed up. He’s on my ‘do-not-draft’ list.

-T.Y. Hilton is a good investment.  Andrew Luck will figure out how to use him.

-There are tons of guys who will give you consistent but unspectacular numbers as the #2 receiver on a good team or #1 receiver on a bad team.   Lance Moore, Emmanuel Sanders, James Jones, Mike Williams, Vincent Brown, etc. This is what makes WR so much deeper than RB.  

-Tandon Doss is a sleeper I like. So is Ashlon Jeffrey. 

The best advice I have about receivers is to not be stubborn and fall in love with too many sleepers.   I do that every year and it never works out.  Usually, the guys I fall in love with are ridiculously talented, but I miss their breakout season by one year; they stink for me, then the next year they go crazy. (Dez Bryant the latest example).

That probably means big years for Brandon LaFell and Antonio Brown, who I whiffed on last year in pretty much all my leagues.  This year I’m just taking safe receivers who will at least give me 50 yards a game.  Crazy fliers are fine for QB and RB, but not so good for WRs.

So the strategy in a nutshell:

Get RBs early.

Load up on safe WR depth late.

Find a QB when value presents itself.

Somewhere in there you need a pesky tight end.  With Gronkowski’s slew of injuries, Jimmy Graham is really the only TE worthy of a 2nd round pick. He’ll put up numbers like a top 5 receiver. 

After Graham, it’s a deep but less-than-amazing group.

Somebody in your league will jump on Gronk pretty early, and they’ll either be a genius or an idiot. Normally I would avoid being that guy, but Gronk has scored more red-zone TDs than anybody over the last 3 years, and he can score even when injured.  I might not hate the idea of taking the Gronk in the spot of my second receiver, maybe in the 4th round.

Tony Gonzalez is 75 years old, so I’m not going with him. Jason Witten is steady but so boring. Vernon Davis is a physical freak but flopped miserably last year.  Since those 3 round out the top 5, I’m probably either going Graham/Gronk early or I’m waiting until everybody has a tight end and then waiting 3 more rounds. 

In the 6-12 range of tight ends, you have Kyle Rudolph (best receiver on Minnesota), Antonio Gates (game-time decision), Jared Cook (perennial let-down, now a Ram), Owen Daniels (Texans’ mainstay), Brandon Pettigrew (frying-pan hands), Jermichael Finley (big mouth, little production), and Fred Davis (high-risk, medium-reward).

Not exactly a crop of winners.  The difference between playing Pettigrew every week and playing the waiver wire every week is that you’ll save a draft pick.  Tight ends are as unpredictable as kickers, so don’t draft them too early.  

Speaking of kickers, even 5 seconds spent thinking about them is 5 seconds too many.  Just pick one at random. 

Regarding defenses, I prefer to play the week-to-week matchup, a strategy that was brilliant for me in 2011 but miserable in 2012.  But honestly, I could make a case for 15 different teams as the #1 fantasy defense, and it's all a matter of dumb luck.  It's really much more about playing the schedules and picking on bad quarterbacks.  As such, the best options off the top of my head would be Denver (6 games against Flynn, Rivers, Alex Smith), Houston (4 games against Gabbert & Locker), Miami or New England (4 against Jets and Bills).   Since all the good QBs are in the NFC, let's assume all the good fantasy defenses are in the AFC.  

So, that's all for now. 

Goodbye from India.  

2013 NFL Preview

After a 3 month hiatus, I am back.

I know not many people read this thing, but that's never been the point.  It's good to simply write for the sake of writing.  The practice of putting words together to communicate to an audience, even if the audience is 3 real people and a bunch of spam trolls, is still beneficial.  In fact, it has probably helped me in my real job, where I have become the guy on staff who writes pretty much everything.    

But for purposes of this blog, I'll stay away from topics of religion, politics, marriage, parenting, alleviating poverty, eating organically, or anything like that.  In fact, I will pretty much stick to the 2013 NFL season, which is fast approaching. 

Normally, by this time in the year I would have ingested every detail of the NFL, and could recite the first, second and third string tight ends of each team.  But for a multitude of reasons, this year is different.  I'm far busier at work, I have two rascally kids, and I've been following baseball quite closely.    But, I've still got my NFL opinions, whether they are well-founded or not. 

So without much more ado, let's begin with my 2013 season preview, breaking down each team and predicting their records.  Soon we'll dive into fantasy rankings, prop bets, and soon enough, the week 1 picks.  

First, the AFC East.

Amazingly, each of these teams began the 2102 season with a 3-3 record.  The Dolphins were actually 4-3 at one point, and their defense appeared to be one of the league's best. 

Then, the rest of the season happened. The Pats won 9 out of 10, scoring an average of 37 points in those games, and solidifying Tom Brady's dominance once again.  Meanwhile, the rest of the division fell apart, not just losing games, but routinely getting embarrassed. Mark Sanchez delivered the play of the year, the famous Butt Fumble, which has ranked as ESPN's Worst of the Worst for something like 45 weeks in a row, and could conceivably hold that crown for decades to come.   (Seriously, you'll never get tired of watching this.)

In reaction to some dismal 2012 seasons, the AFC cleaned house. 

The Jets traded their keystone player, Darrelle Revis, to the Bucs for 60 cents on the dollar, and drafted Geno Smith to eventually replace Sanchez.  This is almost certainly Rex Ryan's last season in New York, unless the Jets somehow make the playoffs.  But rumor has it, Rex is not dismayed; he has guaranteed Super Bowl victories for the next 12 seasons.  We'll see what happens.

The Bills fired Chan Gailey and brought in the severely underqualified Doug Marrone, who brought along his equally underqualified offensive coordinator from Syracuse. The new defensive coordinator is Mike Pettine, who was Rex Ryan's right hand man with the Jets.  Then the Bills used the 16th overall pick to make Florida State's EJ Manuel the new face of the franchise.  This seems like the definition of a reach, but anything is an upgrade over Kevin Kolb and Tavaris Jackson.  The defense remains very solid.  CJ Spiller is poised for a huge year.  Buffalo can grind out ugly wins. 

Miami appears to have some decent continuity, at least compared to their AFC East rivals. Joe Philbin and Ryan Tannehill are back together again, and now have a legitimate receiver in Mike Wallace. The defense added DE Dion Jordan and CB Brent Grimes and should continue to be above average.  However, the losses of Jake Long and Reggie Bush are going to cripple this offense immensely. And let's not forget that Mike Wallace is a selfish douche, and Tannehill is still John Navarre 2.0.    

New England lost a ton offensively. Wes Welker went to Denver, Danny Woodhead went to the Chargers, Brandon Lloyd was released, Rob Gronkowski has had surgery more times than I can remember, and Aaron Hernandez ... well ... last I heard police were searching some lake in Connecticut for another one of his murder victims. 

But, Tom Brady will be Tom Brady, so let's not panic.  In fact, let's pencil Danny Amendola into the Pro Bowl game right now.  Plus, the running game should be pretty solid and the defense is getting better, ever so slowly. 

The AFC East should be a repeat of last season, but with a little more disparity.  New England will win double digit games again, though I'd say 10 or 11 is more reasonable.  Miami will emerge as the Pats' closest contender, going 9-7 and barely missing a wildcard spot.  Buffalo will endure Manuel's growing pains, but they can scrap together 5 or 6 wins with a decent defense and running game.  The Jets are as good a contender as any for the Johnny Football Sweepstakes, as they really don't have any strengths.  It'll be interesting to see how Rex deals with the Geno/Sanchez drama. Wait, no. Actually it won't. 

Predictions:

Pats:  11-5

Dolphins:  9-7

Bills:  6-10

Jets:  3-13

Next, the AFC North.

I'm still trying to figure out how Baltimore won the Super Bowl.  Having watched the 38-35 double-OT playoff game in Denver, it was clear that Baltimore was not the best team in the league, or even the best team in the AFC.  Not even close.  But whatever.  Congrats on the $52 million guaranteed, Joe Flacco.  Should be enough money to get your eyebrows fixed.

But to be fair, Baltimore was very good last year, and John Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for building a well-balanced roster.  Losing Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, who combined for 22 Pro Bowl seasons in Baltimore, is a blow to the defense, more in terms of leadership than actual play. But gaining Elvis Dumervil, Chris Canty and Michael Huff might have actually made the defense better overall.

Offensively, the loss of Anquan Boldin will be manageable, as long as Tandon Doss can live up to his potential. Dennis Pitta is out for the year, which hurts a lot. But despite Flacco's absurd contract, this is still Ray Rice's offense, and as long as he's there, they'll be solid.  Probably not Super Bowl bound again, but at least playoff-bound. 

Cincinnati has somehow made the playoffs in consecutive years, where they've been twice bounced in Houston.  In those two playoff games, Arian Foster has put up 293 rushing yards and 3 scores, while Andy Dalton has put up 384 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 4 picks.  Sheesh.

For no good reason, I refuse to believe in the Bengals. Probably has something to do with Andy Dalton's red hair. I just don't get it.  A.J. Green is spectacular, and the defense keeps getting the job done, but I don't buy them making a third straight playoff appearance. 

Pittsburgh ... oh how I love to hate them.  What a joy it was to see them miss the playoffs, as the nucleolus of the team erodes slowly and painfully. Hines Ward finally retired, James Harrison went to the rival Bengals, and the always-injured Troy Polamalu appears to be slowing down, though I wouldn't be shocked to see him put on a Peyton-esque comeback and dominate the NFL this year.  And let's not kid ourselves - their defense is still well built. Mike Tomlin knows what he's doing.

Ben Roethlisberger will have to cope without Mike Wallace, but it's widely understood that Ben never liked Wallace anyway. His favorite target, other than Hines, has always been Heath Miller, for some strange reason. Ben is always trying to tell us how invaluable Heath is, and we never get it. It's a very codependent relationship, akin to Jim Leyland and Don Kelly. Antonio Brown, a major bust for all my fantasy teams last year, will become Ben's #1 receiver, and former Spartan Le'Veon Bell should take over the #1 RB job, though it'll continue to be a timeshare.  The offensive line is very young and raw, but good.  Ben will continue to make them look bad though, with his stupid reckless playing style which always seems to work.

And then there's lovable little Cleveland, who only made 2 picks in the first six rounds of April's draft, and will run out Brandon Weeden as their quarterback once again.

The dude's going to turn 30 midway through this season, and he has less real-game experience than Dalton, Ponder, Locker, Gabbert or Newton, all of whom are age 24 and under.  It's sad, but kind of cute, to see Cleveland thinking they can compete with a 29-year old sophomore under center. 

The Browns do have a budding star in Trent Richardson, and a stud in Joe Thomas, but the rest of their offense is barely passable as NFL talent. The only defensive player worth mention is CB Joe Haden, a shutdown corner trapped on a terrible team, which seems to be a new trend.

There shouldn't be a lot of turnover in the AFC North, as the Browns did nothing to improve and the Ravens kept their core. I expect to see Pittsburgh and Cincy flip-flop in the standings, with the Steelers making a run at the playoffs.   

Predictions:

Ravens:  11-5

Steelers:  10-6

Bengals:  7-9

Browns:  3-13

Now, onto the AFC South, where the Texans have reigned for the past two years in the post Peyton Manning era. But very quickly, a new Colts quarterback may be ready to stake his ownership of the division for the foreseeable decade. Is this the year Andrew Luck begins his supremacy over the AFC South? Or does Houston still hold the advantage?

I'm inclined to lean towards Indy this year, but I can't discount Houston just because of my love of Andrew Luck. The Texans had a very solid offseason, losing very few important players, and (finally!) adding a legitimate receiver next to Andre Johnson.  #27 overall pick DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson should finally give them a deep threat that scares opposing secondaries. And with the offensive line intact, the rushing attack of Arian Foster and Ben Tate should continue to dominate. 

But as you will hear Mark Schlereth say approximately 85,000 thousand times between now and Christmas, "it's a quarterback league."  And the Colts have the best quarterback in this division. Maybe one of the best quarterbacks in the league. 

My crush on Andrew Luck has been well documented since his junior season at Stanford, and he might have actually surpassed by expectations last season. However, because Russell Wilson and RG3 were also incredible (not to mention Colin Kaepernick, and the freakish comeback season Peyton had, and the usual brilliance of Rodgers and Brady), Luck flew under the radar.  With no running game and a horrible defense, Andrew Luck won 11 games and shattered Cam Newton's record for passing yards by a rookie.

Yes, RG3 and Wilson had higher completion percentages and fewer INTs. But they also were on teams with fantastic running attacks, and each threw the ball 393 times, compared to 627 attempts for Luck.  And for a little in-depth analysis, consider this:  Luck's average pass traveled 10.2 yards through the air - the farthest in the NFL.  As a rookie.  

So, I actually like the Colts again.  I think they can win 10+ games despite their lack of talent on defense, in the running game, on the offensive line, and pretty much everywhere except quarterback. 

However, this still seems to be Houston's division to lose.  With Foster, J.J. Watt,  and a bunch of studs on defense, they should be able to beat up on the lousy teams on the schedule and win at least 10 games easily.   

As far as Tennessee and Jacksonville ... neither team did enough to improve upon their records from last year.  I wouldn't be shocked to see the Jags go 0-16.  Their insistence on "building around" Blaine Gabbert is reminiscent of the Lions' woeful plight under Joseph Harrington.  My heart goes out to any Jags fans that may or may not exist.  

Predictions:

Texans:  11-5

Colts:  11-5

Titans:  5-11

Jaguars:  1-15

The AFC West was a complete mystery heading into last season. A lot of people, including myself, liked the KC Chiefs an awful lot.  WalterFootball.com actually wrote that they had, "arguably the best roster in the NFL, excluding the quarterback position."  And I didn't completely disagree. 

Then, they went 2-14, scoring a preposterously low 13.2 points per game, and warranting a complete overhaul.  They certainly weren't as bad as 2-14 indicates - injuries and horrible coaching played a big role - but when you go 0-12 in the AFC, all your coaches are fired and you bring in Andy Reid.  That's just what happens. 

With the #1 overall pick, the Chiefs weren't forced to take a QB, thanks to the trade for Alex Smith, who in case you didn't know, is the best quarterback in the NFL.

(Seriously, I don't usually like to waste my time with this sort of vociferous nonsense, but when Doug Pederson, the guy who led Calvary Baptist Academy to a District Title in 2007, makes a claim about who the best QB in the league is, you better listen.)

So, the Chiefs were able to spend the #1 pick on a franchise left tackle in Eric Fisher, and they added a couple of decent CBs in free agency with Dunta Robinson and Sean Smith. Plus they still have Jamaal Charles and a better-than-you-think offensive line to help Alex Smith mange games, which he can do quite well.  But don't expect much from Dwayne Bowe, who finally got the big contract ($26 million guaranteed) that he's been crying about for two years; he will respond with a serious of "injuries" and uninspired play.  You can take that prediction to the bank. 

So, while KC will inevitably improve in Andy Reid's first season, let's keep expectations low and say 7 wins. 

The Broncos enjoyed a miraculous 13-3 season and #1 seed in Peyton Manning's comeback season, and would have been Super Bowl bound if they didn't allow a 70-yard ridiculous hailmary to Baltimore in the playoffs.  Now, expectations for Peyton are sky-high and the addition of Wes Welker makes Denver the unquestioned favorites in the AFC.  In fact, Bovada.com has their over/under currently at 11.5 wins, the highest mark in the league. 

Despite the loss of Elvis Dumervil, Denver has one of the most solid defenses in the AFC, anchored by stud Von Miller, who has 30 sacks in 2 seasons and could chase Michael Strahan's record this year. With Shaun Phillips, Robert Ayers, Terrance Knighton and rookie Sylvester Williams, John Elway assembled one of the best front 7s in football while simultaneously losing one of the best pass rushers. The secondary's not amazing, but Champ Bailey should still have at least one more good season in him.  Denver probably  won't repeat their 13 wins from last season, but they are an easy pick to win the division.

Oakland and San Diego are boring and sad.    

The Chargers FINALLY ended the Norv Turner era, and hired Mike McCoy, the Broncos' O-Coordinator.  But with the rapidly declining Phillip Rivers, the whopping bust that is Ryan Matthews, and a decimated receiving crew,  there's no reason to expect San Diego to improve on last year's 7-9 record.  In fact, they might fall all the way to the basement of the AFC West. 

On the positive side, the Chargers drafted Manti Te'o, which means they just became one of the easiest teams to make fun of.

For Oakland, it's another chapter in the era of crappy quarterbacking.

Since drafting JaMarcus #1 overall in 2007 (the next John Elway, according to Mel Kiper), the Raiders have trotted out the following starting QBs:  JaMarcus, Daunte Culpepper, Andrew Walter, Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradkowski, Jason Campbell, Kyle Boller, Carson Palmer (24 games), and Terrelle Pryor. 

Now, after riding themselves of Carson, they've acquired Matt Flynn, who, amazingly, was JaMarcus Russell's backup at LSU for 3 years.   Flynn, who did throw for 6 TDs against the Lions in the stupidest game in NFL history, has a measly 141 career passing attempts - 36 fewer than Andrew Luck had after 4 games in the NFL.  Flynn is a five-year veteran, by the way.  

With an always-injured Darren McFadden, an average at best offensive line, and a bunch of receivers with great 40 times but lousy hands, Flynn has very little to work with. And as for the defense ... they are retaining only 2 of 11 starters from 2012. That's astonishing. 

Bad drafting, bad trades, bad coaching, and bad scouting ... those are only a few of the Raiders' problems.   There has also been bad plenty of bad play on the field.   Despite a pretty easy schedule, they can't be expected to win more than 3 or 4 games.      

Predictions:

Broncos: 12-4

Chiefs:  7-9

Chargers:  4-12

Raiders:  2-14

So to sum up the AFC, it looks like this:

Broncos: 12-4

Pats:  11-5

Texans:  11-5

Ravens:  11-5

Colts:  11-5

Steelers:  10-6

Dolphins:  9-7

Chiefs:  7-9

Bengals:  7-9

Bills:  6-10

Titans:  5-11

Chargers:  4-12

Jets:  3-13

Browns:  3-13

Raiders:  2-14

Jaguars:  1-15

Not real creative, with the only playoff change being the Steelers instead of Bengals.  But it's a QB league (ughh) and the AFC is clearly a conference with some very good QBs and very bad QBs. 

If I have to pick an AFC Champion at this point, I will go with Denver. 

Let's move on to the NFC, starting with the East.

By winning their last 7 games, the Redskins claimed the division at 10-6, thanks in large part to collapses by the Cowboys and Giants.  Only Philly finished below .500, at a measly 4-12.  Overall it was a pretty competitive, albeit loathsome division. 

The big question is the status of RG3's right knee, which was surgically reconstructed in January.  To simplify things, if RG3 is full strength, the division belongs to Washington. If he's not, all bets are off. 

Of course, we're hearing everything from "He'll never walk again" to "He's faster than ever."  There is really no way to know what shape his knee is in until week 1.  Which makes Washington an impossible team to prognosticate.  

With a healthy RG3, Alfred Morris should have another solid season, provided Mike Shanahan doesn't revert to his old ways and play RB roulette all year long.  But with an ailing RG3, Morris will watch his numbers plummet.  With no running game, the whole offense goes kaput, as they don't have the vertical threat to stretch the defense.  No disrespect to Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Josh Morgan, and Fred Davis, but they are best suited to complement a run-first offense.

If RG3 is healthy, however, Garcon could be a candidate for a huge breakout year, benefiting from plenty of broken plays and Griffin's knack for keeping his eyes downfield while on the run. 

Defensively, I wouldn't expect much of anything from the Skins, except that having Brian Orakpo back will help.  Since predicting their record is intertwined with predicting Griffin's status, I'll just say a safe 8-8.

The Giants stand the best chance of unseating Washington and winning the division, as they have stability at the QB position, on the O-line, and with their coaching staff.  They also have a great defensive line anchored by Pierre-Paul, and a better secondary than people think.  With Eli putting together another unspectacular but steady season, they should find their way to 9 or 10 wins and a playoff berth.

Dallas and Philly get most of the attention in this division, despite being two of the stupidest franchises in football.  Riley Cooper is all over the news for racial slurs.  Tony Romo makes the news every time he sneezes or itches his crotch.  Chip Kelly is one of the most talked-about coaches in the NFL, and he hasn't actually done anything yet. 

While Dallas has impressive offensive weapons and a good defense on paper, they aren't built for the trenches, and they aren't well coached.  If DeMarco Murray could stay healthy, I'd like them a whole lot more.   But I don't think he can.  And when Romo is chucking the ball 40 times a game, it's not good news for Dallas. He averaged 36 passing attempts in their wins, and 45 in their losses.  That doesn't seem like a great omen. 

The Eagles, in their first season without Andy Reid since Bill Clinton was President, are trying to rebound off a hideous 4-12 season in which the players completely and utterly quit.  It was one of the saddest displays of effort I have ever witnessed.  It can't possibly be as bad this year.  Having stud left tackle Jason Peters back will be a huge help.  Drafting Lane Johnson and putting him at right tackle strengthens what was already an above average O-line.

But losing Jeremy Maclin for the year is a big problem, and having four new starters in the secondary is never a good thing.  Further, Philly has no idea who their quarterback is, whether they'll run a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense, or who they'll be throwing the ball to, aside from trouble-making idiot DeSean Jackson.  Sounds like a 6-10 season at best. 

For Dallas, I'm thinking between 7 and 9 wins, as usual, with some sort of perennial playoff collapse. 

Predictions:

Giants: 10-6

Cowboys:  8-8

Redskins:  8-8

Eagles:  6-10

In the NFC North, we have to consider the Packers heavy favorites (11-5 last year), even though the Bears and Vikings also won double-digit games last year. 

Aaron Rodgers is so much better than the 11-5 record, specifically the 2-3 start to the season, that Green Bay produced in 2012.  He showed this in two playoff games, going 49 for 72 for 531 yards, 3 TDs and 1 pick, good for a 97.6 passer rating, which is especially impressive considering one game was against San Fran's amazing defense.

In fact, let's not forget that Green Bay played well enough to win that game, if not for Colin Kaepernick's super-human 181 rushing yard performance. 

So for Green Bay, with an improved running offense (supposedly) and a much better defense than people think, I am expecting 12 or more wins.  The loss of left tackle Bryan Bulaga is unfortunate, especially in a division with Julius Peppers and Jared Allen, but Aaron Rodgers is at his best when he's on the run, so the Pack will be fine as long as he stays healthy. 

The second best team in the North, unfortunately, is the Bears.  Jay Cutler is a colossal tool and they have a coach who hasn't been in the NFL since 2004, but they have the best roster from top to bottom. They improved the offensive line in a big way (Cutler will still make them look bad by holding the ball too long and having terrible pocket awareness), and they have perhaps the league's best RB/WR combo in Forte and Marshall, as well as WR Ashlon Jeffery who could emerge as a big-play threat.

Defensively, the Bears will probably be better without Brian Urlacher;  Lance Briggs has been their best linebacker for about the last 8 seasons, and will continue to play at a Pro Bowl level. With Peppers and Shea McClellin rushing the passer, and two stud corners in Jennings and Tillman, the Bears defense is built to be one of the best in the NFL.  Between that and a strong running offense, they can win a lot of games, if Cutler can stop pouting, turning the ball over, and acting like a douche.  8 to 9 wins is probably a good bet for them.

There is a ton of optimism flying around in Michigan surrounding the Lions, but I haven't bought into it just yet.  I still see a team loaded with more problems than answers.  It begins with Matt Stafford.  The guy just doesn't have hyper-competitive winner in his DNA.  He strikes me as lazy, entitled, overly casual, and having a relatively low football IQ.  In terms of arm strength, he is elite.  But in terms of accuracy, pocket presence, footwork, mechanics, intangibles, clock management, and leadership ability, I'd say he's below average in each category.  Especially mechanics and footwork.  If I have to watch him stumble around the pocket and flick stupid sidearm passes to Pettigrew all season, I will buy a closet full of Shaun Hill jerseys. 

But the problems of this team go way, way beyond Stafford.  The second biggest issue is poor coaching.  The Lions have taken on the personality of their head coach, which is to say they are undisciplined, overconfident, and smug.  Also, not intelligent.  They are quick to celebrate good plays on 1st and 10, but they disappear on 3rd down.  They are over-reactive instead of over-prepared, and they buy into their own hype when they haven't done anything to deserve it.  In other words, I'm not a big fan of Jim Schwartz. 

But personality aside, he's just not a good football coach.  He does not prepare his team well, they have way too many penalties and mental errors, and he gets routinely outcoached by everybody.  Halftime adjustments?  Who needs them?  Let's just make angry faces at everybody.  

Then, there's the problem of losing 3 out of 5 starting offensive linemen.  Backus, Cherilus and Peterman weren't great, but are Reiff, Warford and Hilliard improvements? No.  Youth and a lack of continuity are not good traits on the O-line, especially when the QB has no pocket awareness.  

Everyone is hailing Reggie Bush as the solution to all the Lions' woes, which I find funny because 2 years ago he was an injury-prone wimp who couldn't run between the tackles and thought flipping into the endzone was the pinnacle of existence.  Now, he's the second coming of Barry Sanders?  Really?

I do like the prospect of a pass-catching RB on this offense, as it allows Stafford a reliable checkdown option other than pathetic Pettigrew.  Bush - if he stays healthy, which he won't - could lead all running backs with about 90 catches.  But he won't stay healthy, and then we're back to Leshoure's 3 yard runs and hoping for Joique Bell to do something. 

Another instance of fan hyperbole is going on with the receivers. "Burleson and Broyles are going to take the pressure off Calvin Johnson this year, and put up huge numbers!"   Really?  Based on what?    "They've had a great training camp!"    Give me a break.  Anybody can have a great training camp against the Lions secondary.  Neither of those guys should be relied on for more than 50 catches and 500 yards, and more likely, a home on the IR.  If either guy stays healthy and is consistently productive, it'll be a nice surprise.  But let's not be stupid and expect it.  And don't get me started on Pettigrew.  I don't even want to think about that jackass.

Defensively, we did improve.  Quinn will be an upgrade to the secondary, and we retained Chris Houston which was huge.  I actually really like the rookie CB Darius Slay; in fact, I think he'll be a better rookie than #5 pick Ziggy Ansah, who unfortunately has bust written all over him.  Hope I'm wrong, but not going to drink the Ziggy koolaid until I see him do something. 

Fairley and Suh are great talents with small brains.  I'm interested to see which guy gets suspended first.  My money's on Suh, but it could go either way.  We're not going to miss KVB or Avril very much, as the DTs will continue to draw double and triple teams, allowing the new crop of DEs to rush the passer at full speed. Hopefully Ziggy, Willie Young, Jason Jones, and/or Devin Taylor can take advantage of our excellent DTs and record some sacks.  Not holding my breath on any of those guys.

As you can tell, my attitude towards the Lions is pretty awful this season.  I guess I'm finally tired of playing the optimist every summer, trying to figure out how it could go right.   Let's just call it what it is:  a poorly-coached, undertalented team with a couple superstars, one of which can't keep his head on straight. And a quarterback who I just don't like very much. 

In short, I feel bad for Calvin Johnson.  It's gonna be another year of the same.  More than 4 wins, yes, but we're not mature enough as a team to compete with the rest of the NFC.  In fact, I could see the team quitting on Schwartz midway through the year if it becomes apparent that he's going to get canned.  Let's say they go 7-9.  That sounds about right.

The Vikings are the classic example of a great RB trapped with a terrible QB.  Christian Ponder made some of the worst throws in the NFL last year, and was completely incapable of throwing the deep ball. Now, without Percy Harvin, he'll be even less effective. I'm not expecting much from Greg Jennings, who can't stop making comments about the Packers.  I'm wondering if all those Old Spice commercials went to his head and made him think he was cooler than he really is. 

Either way, Minnesota will be one of the toughest teams in the NFL to beat on a weekly basis because nobody can stop Adrian Peterson.  How stupid we all were to doubt him last year, thinking the ACL surgery would slow down the best running back since Barry.  AP has a real chance to retire someday as the hands-down best RB ever, if he can stay healthy for another 5 or 6 seasons.

To complement  AP, the Vikes have an excellent defensive line, which is a good combination for keeping games close and slow-moving.  This is Minnesota's best chance for replicating last year's 10-6 record.  Their secondary is young and below average, and their passing offense stinks.  Oh, should mention the offensive line is excellent, anchored by Matt Kalil, who is on his way to being the best tackle in football.

Predictions:

Packers:  13-3

Bears:   8-8

Lions:  7-9

Vikings:   6-10

Atlanta dominated the NFC South last year with a 13-3 record, while everyone else finished 7-9.  This year will certainly be a different story.  The Bucs got Darrelle Revis.  The Saints got their coach back.  And the Panthers probably won't start 1-6 again.  I think all of these teams have the potential to win 10+ games, which means they'll beat each other up and all finish with fewer wins than they hoped for. 

To me, the one team that stands out and could rise above the rest would be New Orleans, simply because of what we've seen Drew Brees do before.  Matt Ryan is great, but Brees' ceiling is higher.  Ryan relies on great receivers and good blocking;  Brees can make something out of nothing. 

Also, Atlanta lost some key players on defense, namely John Abraham (32 sacks the last 3 seasons, now a Cardinal), and Dunta Robinson & Brent Grimes (a solid CB tandem, now a Chief and Dolphin).  They also lost 2 starting offensive linemen, and didn't really do anything to improve the team, other than replacing Michael Turner with Steven Jackson, which is like replacing a knee injury with a hip injury. 

Julio Jones will continue to evolve into a FItzgerald-esque star, and Atlanta will outscore plenty of teams, but I think they'll drop down to 9, maybe 8 wins.

New Orleans, with an angry quarterback and slightly revamped defense, should win the division with 10 or 11 wins.

For Carolina, I'm seeing a make or break year for Cam Newton.  He came across as immature and petulant for most of 2012, but then concluded the year with a stretch of brilliant play and 4 straight wins.   Unfortunately, he has almost nothing to work with offensively.  A bunch of overpaid running backs, barely adequate receivers, not a great O-line.  And the defense is worse.  Possibly the worst secondary in the league, which bodes poorly against a division with 3 prolific, vertical offenses.  I could actually see Carolina backsliding into a miserable 4-12 season, but I think Cam is too athletic and competitive to let that happen.  Let's say he gets them to 8-8.

And then there's Tampa, who really can't be taken lightly. For one thing, they added the best shutdown corner of the past decade, a guy who can shut down half the field.  Last offseason, they revamped their offense with Vincent Jackson, a stud guard in Carl Nicks, and a jackpot rookie in RB Doug Martin. They also got guard Gabe Carimi, who I love, and former #3 pick Gerald McCoy, who returns from injury.  Then, there's safety Mark Barron (a stud) and OLB Lavonte David (the best pick from the 2nd round last year, and the guy I wanted the Lions to take instead of Broyles).  It's almost a certainty that no team has drafted better than Tampa over the past 3 years.   Then, they turned 2013's picks into Revis, while still getting a starting CB in the 2nd round and a backup QB in the 3rd round.   In short, Tampa's GM is doing everything right.

But, "it's a quarterback league."  So, all the pressure's on Josh Freeman to play like it's 2010 (95.9 rating) and not 2011 (74.6 rating).  Now that he has a full year of Doug Martin doing this kind of stuff, he'll be a lot more comfortable and see a lot less guys in deep coverage.   I like the Bucs to win 10 games and make the playoffs.

Predictions:

Saints:  11-5

Bucs:  10-6

Falcons:  8-8

Panthers:  8-8

And that leaves the NFC West, which was generally considered the worst division in the history of sports up until about 2 years ago, when it genetically mutated into the best division in football.  I don't know what happened in Seattle, but 5th round nobodys like Richard Sherman suddenly became in the conversation for best CB in the league.  Lazy busts like Marshawn Lynch started running like Arian Foster with dreads and power. And 3rd round rookie afterthoughts like QB Russell Wilson became among the best young quarterbacks in the game, finishing with only one vote fewer than Andrew Luck for Rookie of the Year.  What an insane, incredible, confusing transformation for the Seahawks, who are suddenly the second best team in the NFC, according to Vegas.

Vegas' best team in the NFC is San Francisco, and rightfully so.  Who wants to face Colin Kaepernick, a guy who runs like Denard Robinson and throws like Justin Verlander, with the calmness of a Manning.  He's a freak of nature, and truly, honestly, might be the best quarterback in the NFL as soon as right now.  His ceiling is unlimited; he also might fall back to earth and be a backup by the end of the year.  Has there ever been a larger range of both upside and downside for a player who's only started 10 games? 

San Fran probably has a slightly weaker roster than Seattle, from top to bottom, only because of Seattle's elite running game and secondary.    But San Fran has the best front-7 in football by a mile, and an A+ offensive line.  Plus, they added Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency, who, if he can reclaim any of his former shape, will be a tremendous asset.  Oh, and they got Anquan Boldin, which helps at least somewhat.

Seattle had an even better offseason, acquiring Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril, Antoine Winfield, and DE Michael Bennett, who had 9 sacks last year.  It really seemed unfair to see Seattle dominate free agency the way they did.  Losing Harvin to a potentially season-ending injury means Seattle doesn't have any viable receivers, but do they need any?   They have the best secondary in the league, and it's not even close.  In fact, they had the league's best secondary already, and then added Winfield, who has 27 INTs and 14 forced fumbles in his career and can still play. 

Both San Fran and Seattle should be penciled into the playoffs, meaning the rest of the NFC is competing for 1 wildcard spot.  This is bad news for Detroit and many other teams.  The best case scenario is that Arizona and St. Louis overachieve, making things difficult for the Rams and 'Hawks, and bringing them down into the 9-11 win range.  But I don't see it.  No disrespect to the Rams (who I think are very solid) and the Cardinals (actually, wait, I do disrespect them) - but the top two teams in the NFC West are just too dang good.  I think Seattle goes 12-4 and San Fran goes 13-3.

St. Louis, in their second year under Jeff Fisher, made huge improvements by adding Jake Long (a stud left tackle, injury past be damned) and Tavon Austin (the best receiver in the 2013 class).  Despite the loss of Steven Jackson, this offense will finally be able to move the ball under Sam Bradford.  Jake Long alone is worth a couple wins, and will make whoever the running back is into a star.

The Rams were extremely stingy on defense last year, ranking above average in rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and points allowed, and tying with Denver for the league-lead in sacks with 52.  This is quite a transformation from the previous year, when they ranked 22nd, 31st, 26th, and 16th in those same areas. 

Jeff Fisher is just a good coach who gets the most out of his players.  With a really good draft class, a fantastic D-line, a new franchise left tackle, and perhaps the best kicker in the league, the Rams can grind their way to 8 wins at least.  But it all hinges on Sam Bradford, who is running out of excuses.  The last #1 overall pick in the old CBA, Bradford is still trying to earn his unthinkably ridiculous $86 million dollar deal.  After 3 seasons, he boasts a 15-26 record, a 77.3 passer rating, and zero playoff appearances.  This is the year he better get something done.  Too bad he's in the NFC West.

I'm not going to spend much time on Arizona.  If they want to make Carson Palmer their quarterback, they don't deserve my time.  Great defense, great Larry Fitzgerald, horrible everything else.  I think they'll repeat 5-11. 

Predictions: 

49ers:   13-3

Seahawks:  12-4

Rams:   7-9

Cardinals:  5-11

So to recap the NFC, we have:

Packers:  13-3

49ers:   13-3

Seahawks:  12-4

Saints:  11-5

Giants: 10-6

Bucs:  10-6

Bears:   8-8

Falcons:  8-8

Panthers:  8-8

Cowboys:  8-8

Redskins:  8-8

Lions:  7-9

Rams:   7-9

Vikings:   6-10

Eagles:  6-10

Cardinals:  5-11

So, by these predictions, the top 5 picks in the 2014 draft will belong to the AFC.   And the playoffs would feature the 12-4 Seahawks going on the road in round one, sparking all kinds of controversy.  I like Green Bay to get to the Super Bowl and beat Denver.  Not a sexy pick, but a smart one.  

Stay tuned for my thoughts on fantasy football ... and less than a month til week one picks!