Super Bowl Prop Bets

(All lines from Bovada.lv) 

DEN (-3) over Seattle
Bet $20 at -105 odds

Total score:  over 47 points
Bet $30 at -120 odds

Super Bowl MVP:
Peyton Manning - $50 at +110 odds
Russell Wilson -  $25 at +375 odds

Player to score the first TD in the game:
Julius Thomas - $10 at +800 odds
Knowshon Moreno - $10 at +900 odds

Russell Wilson, total passing yards:
OVER 209.5,  bet $25 at -130 odds

Russell Wilson, total completions:  
OVER 16.5,  bet $25 at -130 odds

Will Russell Wilson have a rushing TD in the game?
NO,  bet $60 at -350 odds

Will Percy Harvin score a TD in the game?
NO,  bet $40 at -200 odds

Richard Sherman, total tackles and assists
UNDER 3.5,  bet $20 at -115 odds

Peyton Manning, total passing yards:
OVER 290.5,  bet $50 at -105 odds

Peyton Manning, total passing TDs:
OVER 1.5, bet $150 at -260 odds

Peyton Manning, exactly 3 passing TDs:
Bet $30 at +250 odds

Total yards on Peyton's first completion:
UNDER 9.5 yards, bet $20 at -130 odds

Eric Decker, 7.5 receiving yards more than Golden Tate
Bet $40 at -115 odds

Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?
YES - bet $10 at +170 odds

How many times will Eli Manning be shown on TV during the game?
OVER 1.5,  bet $25 at -140 odds

Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff, Pam Oliver or Erin Andrews?
OLIVER - bet $30 at even odds

How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the game?
UNDER 2 times, bet $20 at -150 odds

Will Michael Crabtree mention Richard Sherman in a tweet during the Super Bowl?
NO - bet $50 at -500 odds

Will Peyton Manning throw a pick-six?
NO - bet $200 at -700 odds

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?
Teammates - bet $50 at even odds
Other team - bet $20 at +1000 odds

Super Bowl Pick

Championship round recap:

1-1 straight up
0-2 against the spread
0-2 over/unders

Total: 

175-89-1 straight up (66.4%)
136-119-2 against the spread (53.4%)
79-74-4 over/unders (52.0%)

Playoff picks are now 8-2 straight-up, but 3-6-1 ATS.  

Somehow I may have underestimated Peyton Manning, and overestimated the affect Jim Harbaugh would have on the NFC Championship.   As far as this Richard Sherman nonsense, I guess I'm grateful that he has taken over for Ndamukong Suh as the most reviled defensive player in the NFL.  As to this debate about whether or not he's a "thug," my opinion is that he's more of a douche bag, not necessarily a thug, but definitely a douche bag. A heck of a cornerback, and pretty entertaining, but he single-handedly made 90% of America want to cheer for the Broncos.  

Unless, Sherman is a total genius, and he did all that psychopath-thuggishness crap to take all the attention off his 25 year old quarterback and let the national media focus on him for 2 weeks so Russell Wilson doesn't get overwhelmed by the spotlight and can just focus on football.  I doubt Sherman is that smart, but at the least that's a pretty convenient byproduct of his douchebaggery.  

I don't have a pick yet for the big game;  I'm leaning toward Denver, for obvious reasons, but waiting to see where the line moves.  It opened at DEN by 2.  I'm thinking by game time it'll be Denver by 3.5 or 4.  I'll probably take the Broncos.  I mean, did you see Peyton Manning this season?  Wouldn't picking against him qualify as "trying too hard to be cute"?  

*EDIT*   - The line is set at DEN by 3, and although 75% of Vegas is taking Denver, the 'sharps' seem to be siding with Seattle.   It's pretty simple:  Denver has the superior QB, Seattle has the better team.  The logical, analytic choice seems to be Seattle, while Denver is the pick for people who don't know much of anything.  Thus, I'm disappointed in myself that I've ended up in the Denver camp.  

I just don't see Peyton Manning finishing his career with only one Super Bowl.   

Broncos 28-24.  
(Over 47) 



....  

In other news, the Draft is beginning to heat up with the Senior Bowl and the scouting frenzy that ensues, and 30 of the teams in full-fledged offseason mode.  Detroit finally has two coordinators (never heard of either of them), and a bunch of meaningless promises from their new coach.  "We'll play smart."    "We'll be relentless."    "We'll protect the football."    Blah blah blah.   Whatever.    Let's just endure two more frustrating years of Stafford so we can move on to the next Era of Incompetence.    

Go Tigers!  

Conference Championship Picks

Divisional round recap:

4-0 straight up
1-3 against the spread
1-3 over/unders

Total: 

174-88-1 straight up (66.4%)
136-117-2 against the spread (53.7%)
79-72-4 over/unders (52.3%)

Playoff picks are now 7-1 straight-up, yet only 3-4-1 ATS;  that's just annoying bad luck.  

For the Conference Finals, I have the road underdogs both covering, and San Fran winning outright to set up a Niners-Broncos title game.  

Denver (14-3) is a 4.5 favorite against New England (13-4), with the betting public all over the Pats at a 78% clip. I spent most of this season fading the Patriots, mostly because I watched in anger as Tom Brady shattered my fantasy team's hopes.  But the January Patriots are not the October Patriots;  they have rebounded miraculously from the seemingly unrecoverable injuries to Mayo, Wilfork, and Gronk.  They have recreated their team on the fly.  LeGarrettee Blount's inexplicable emergence as Marshawn Lynch 2.0 exemplifies the trademark resurgence of a veteran left for dead that defines Bill Belichick's Hall of Fame career.  Insane as it sounds, Blount might be the key player in the the 2014 NFL postseason.  Who saw that coming?  

Denver is an offensive juggernaut, obviously, but the Pats' secondary seems to be coming together at the right time.  Still, I can't get myself to pick New England straight up.  Just seems too much like Denver's year.  I have the Broncos 33-31 and the over (55.5). 

The 14-3 Seahawks are also a slim home favorite, giving 3.5 points against the red-hot Niners.  This spread would be 3 or 2.5 if not for the fact that Seattle has the best homefield advantage in sports.  San Francisco has simply been playing better football than any other team over the past 2 months, and has the best roster from top to bottom.  Thus, we have another underdog dominating the Vegas betting, at 74%.  

I've got the Niners winning this game 23-16, primarily because the 49ers defense is uniquely qualified to stop the Seahawks rushing attack with elite inside linebackers Bowman and Willis.  If they can force Russell Wilson into 3rd and longs, they have the speed on the edges to prevent him from making those improv plays that he routinely makes against other defenses.  Seattle lacks the weapons in the passing game to make big plays; they need to lean on the running game, and they won't be able to against San Fran. 

Kaepernick, on the other hand, is the ideal QB to face Seattle's nonpareil defense.  He can extend plays with his legs, turn the corner and run like vintage Michael Vick, and has the arm to keep the safeties honest.  He played most of this season in the pocket, but in the postseason he has emerged as the deadly dual-threat he was last postseason.  Perhaps that was Harbaugh coaching him conservatively and keeping him healthy?  

Either way, San Fran has just enough weapons to put up points on Seattle, albeit not a ton of points.   I've got the under by half a point (39.5).  

Now that the picks are out of the way, let's talk about Jim Caldwell. 

..... 

On second thought, no.  Let's not.  I need a 3 month break from the Lions.  

It's almost baseball season!  Go Tigers!  

*Oh, by the way, the answer to the question in the last post was Steven Jackson.  

Divisional Round Picks

Wildcard recap:

3-1 straight up
2-1-1 against the spread
1-3 over/unders

Total: 

170-88-1 straight up (65.9%)
135-114-2 against the spread (54.2%)
78-69-4 over/unders (53.0%)

Technically, I should be 3-1 ATS, having picked the Niners to win by 3 (which they did), but since they were a 3-point favorite, it goes in the tie column. I did nail two of the final spreads (Colts by 1, Niners by 3), so that counts for something.  Nobody saw the Chargers beating Cincy by 17, because nobody saw Cincy only scoring 10 points, after they routinely scored 30+ at home.  Andy Dalton chose a terrible time to play one of his worst games. San Diego is the darkhorse nobody wants to play.  As for Indy/KC, that was the game of the weekend, far more entertaining than any college football game played this season (maybe ever), and catapulted Andrew Luck into the echelon of today's elite QBs, maybe even into third place behind Peyton and Brees.  I honestly don't know who has the better QB in the upcoming Colts/Pats game.  

Also, I was very impressed by Alex Smith and Nick Foles in losing efforts.  (And Rodgers of course).  Of the eight QBs who played this weekend, Andy Dalton was the only one who didn't look markedly better than Matthew Stafford looks on a regular basis. (Speaking of the Lions, after a week of scary-bad-coach-rumors, it sounds like Ken Whisenhunt will be the guy.  It's no Dungy, but I'll take it!)   Now, of the 8 remaining QBs, the worst ones are Kaepernick and Newton.  That's a pretty dang impressive cast.  

Regarding the Draft, we now have declared confirmation that Bridgewater, Manziel and Clowney are going pro (although everybody already knew they were), as well as UCF's Blake Bortles and USC's Marqise Lee.  We also know that UCLA's QB Hundley is staying in school, which takes one potential first-rounder out of the mix for 2014. With the Lions picking 10th, Marqise Lee is definitely in contention, along with top receivers Mike Evans (A&M) and Sammy Watkins (Clemson). A wide receiver makes a ton of sense for Detroit, especially given that there's no elite prospects in the secondary and there's plenty of depth at receiver.  Being free from Jim Schwartz's terrible drafting hubris is a wonderful thing. 

On to the Divisional Round picks: 

Saints (12-5) @ Seahawks (13-3)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 6
Actual Line:  SEA by 7.5

I see this as a low-scoring affair, with the Seattle defense coming up with numerous big stops and Russell Wilson playing smart, efficient, and making very few mistakes.  Drew Brees can't do it all by himself.  Seahawks 20-13. 
(Under 48) 

Colts (12-5) @ Patriots (12-4)
Predicted Line:  NE by 5.5
Actual Line:  NE by 7.5

Two elite quarterbacks, two shaky run games, two offenses missing their best weapon (Wayne, Gronk).  Both teams have injuries all over the place, but the Pats have the overall better roster, particularly on defense.  The combo of Talib, Arrington, and McCourtey should effectively be able to eliminate T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener from Luck's disposal, and if the Colts are forced to run, I don't like their chances.  Basically, for the Colts to have a chance, Andrew Luck needs to put on another amazing performance, using guys named Griff, LaVon, and Da'Rick. 

The Pats' offense is banged-up and inconsistent, but the Edelman/Amendola/Vereen trio excels in route-running and quickness, which should allow the Patriots to move the ball on the Colts ineffective secondary, who were just torched by Alex Smith.  Indy's best corner, Vontae Davis, is slowed down with a hip injury. 

I love Andrew Luck, always have, always will. I think he's the future of the NFL, and will win multiple Super Bowl rings.  However, in Foxboro, against Belichick's superior brain, with Tom Brady leading the opposing offense, I don't think the Colts stand a chance.  Patriots 27-17. 
(Under 53) 

49ers (13-4) @ Panthers (12-4)
Predicted Line:  SF by 2.5
Actual Line:  SF by 3

All the money is on San Fran as a road favorite, in what figures to be a low-scoring, defense-dominated battle in the trenches.  Both teams have elite middle linebackers, mobile quarterbacks, and lackluster offensive weapons. Both teams are well-coached, disciplined, and protect the football. Carolina's turnover differential was +11; San Fran's was +12.  Excluding Seattle, those were the best marks in the NFC.  (Detroit?  -12) 

Both defenses can get after the passer (Carolina led the NFL with 60 sacks), and both defenses can stuff the run (San Fran, at 3.7 YPC, is 3rd in the NFL), so it makes sense why the total point over/under is set at a minuscule 42. 

A few reasons to take San Fran:  superior coach, superior punter (makes a difference in a game like this), superior running back, superior quarterback (I think?), more playoff-tested. 

A few reasons to take Carolina:  homefield advantage, elite front-seven on defense, Riverboat Ron. 

Ultimately, it just comes down to this being Cam Newton's first playoff game.  I don't know if he has the maturity to outlast the disciplined Niners.  Kaepernick is 3-1 in the playoffs, and only one of those wins came at home. Niners 26-24. 
(Over 42) 

Chargers (10-7) @ Broncos (13-3)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 10.5 
Actual Line:  DEN by 9.5

San Diego's surge-into-the-playoffs-and-beat-Cincinnati routine was exciting, but this is simply Denver's year. Broncos 38-17. 
(Over 54.5) 



*Interesting fact:  only one active NFL running back ranks in the top 25 in career rushing yards.  It's not Adrian Peterson.  See if you can guess; I'll post the answer in the next batch of picks.  Try not to cheat.  Leave a comment or something.  That is, if anyone is reading this....