tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47381317635918053472024-03-13T22:47:22.173-04:00DavidMorganDavid Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.comBlogger358125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-54919116654075957582014-12-22T22:25:00.001-05:002014-12-22T22:25:27.353-05:00Tumbling <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
This blog is relocating to a much more relevant social media outlet: <a href="https://www.tumblr.com/blog/davidcmorgan">www.tumblr.com/blog/davidcmorgan</a><br />
<br />
I will be writing primarily about two of things I care about most:<br />
<br />
1) how to end global poverty,<br />
2) and the plights of the Detroit sports teams. <br />
<br />
Also I have been droppin mad tweets over here: <a href="http://twitter.com/dave_c_morgan">twitter.com/dave_c_morgan</a><br />
<br />
I am a social media fiend! Farewell blogspot. We had some good times. </div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-74273509053001736702014-10-08T21:05:00.000-04:002014-10-08T21:05:09.070-04:00non picks<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Forgot to finish the week 5 picks. Decided to take the rest of the year off. Maybe I'll start up again next year. Go Lions. </div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-68032261681702202022014-10-01T23:28:00.003-04:002014-10-01T23:28:45.865-04:00week 5 picks<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Last week:<br />
5-8 ATS<br />
6-7 straight up<br />
5-8 over/unders<br />
<br />
Overall:<br />
24-37 ATS (39%)<br />
30-31 straight up (49%)<br />
33-28 over/unders (54%)<br />
<br />
Let's be honest, there's no way to pick the games above .500 against the spread when you can't even pick the games .500 straight up. And this season, with about five inexplicable upsets every week, it's like trying to guess heads or tails. Completely pointless. <br />
<br />
The Cowboys beating the Saints by 21?<br />
Minnesota stomping an Atlanta team that just racked up 56 points on Tampa, while Tampa meanwhile goes to Pittsburgh and trashes them? <br />
Eli Piece of Shit Manning scoring 45 points and a near-perfect QB rating?<br />
<br />
It's all just nonsense.<br />
<br />There are 5, and only 5, constants in the NFL right now. Here they are:<br />
1) Seattle is good<br />
2) Denver is good (as long as Peyton doesn't get hurt)<br />
3) Andrew Luck is good<br />
4) Jacksonville sucks<br />
5) Oakland sucks<br />
<br />
These five truths are undeniable from week to week and will remain. <br />
<br />
Nothing else in the NFL makes one bit of sense. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees have lost all reliability. Conversely, guys like Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick might just put up 7 TDs next week. No one knows what defenses are good, what offensive lines are good, what running backs or receivers will produce from week to week. Absolutely nobody knows anything. LeSean McCoy has 4 fantasy points in the last 2 weeks. Combined. Adrian Peterson is done as a Viking forever. DeMarco Murray, currently putting up vintage AP numbers, could easily put up 32 yards on 22 carries next week. No one knows. <br />
<br />
So what the hell. Here are my worthless week 5 picks:<br />
<br />
<b>Vikings (2-2) @ Packers (2-2)<br />Predicted Line: GB by 7.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: GB by 8.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
You know the NFL is screwed up when these teams have the same record and AP is closer to going to prison than playing for the Vikings. No reason to think Teddy Bridgewater (or Christian Ponder potentially) and Matt Asiata will be any match for the Lambeau crowd. Rodgers might be finally rolling. Pack 34-13.<br />
(Under 48)<br />
<br />
<b>Bills (2-2) @ Lions (3-1)<br />Predicted Line: DET by 6</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: DET by 7 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Ah yes, the Jim Schwartz Bowl!<br />
<br />
The big story this week of course was the benching of former 1st round pick EJ Manuel and the promotion of neckbearded Kyle Orton to lead the Bills. This probably means a safer, more steady offense, and a heavy dose of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. It also means less athleticism and less arm strength, which ideally means less chance of Sammy Watkins burning the still-yet-to-be-exposed crappy Lions secondary.<br />
<br />
Speaking of which ...<br /><br />Darius Slay is honestly not bad. I'm just saying. He looks like the best corner Detroit has had in 10 years. I hope I am not speaking too soon. <br />
<br />
And I like Detroit's safeties right now. They can tackle and they haven't made mental mistakes, being out of position, committing unnecessary interference penalties. Considering I've yet to see Jim Caldwell make a facial expression or speak a single word during a game, I guess I have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he's instilling discipline into the defensive players. Overall tackling is the best its been since the early 90s. <br />
<br />
No doubt, we'll miss Stephen Tulloch over the course of the season. But DeAndre Levy is well on his way to a Pro Bowl season, which should be his second consecutive if it wasn't all a garbage popularity contest. <br />
<br />
So, if Detroit's front 7 can contain the running game, make big stops on 3rd downs, and force Orton to beat them with his arm, they'll have a great chance to be 4-1 and avenge Jim Skunkhair Schwartz for all his fiendishness and crappy coaching. But that's a big <i>if</i>. Chris Ivory ran all over Detroit in the 1st half last week, and if the Jets stuck to the run they might've ended up with the win. So we will see. It would be nice to see Suh do something vicious to Orton in this game; he is overdue for a signature Suh play. <br />
<br />
On the flip side of the ball, Detroit's offense will hopefully take advantage of Schwartz's hubris and idiotic "wide 9." Run right at their linebackers, catch the DEs in overpursuit, and use the tight ends in the middle of the field. Feature Golden Tate out of the slot until they can stop him. If any team knows the blueprint for how to beat a Jim Schwartz defense it should be Detroit. And if Calvin is back to full health, then this game should be no contest. <br />
<br />
Normally, I would say I'm against picking Detroit as a large favorite unless the opponent is completely incompetent, which Buffalo is not. But this season feels different. Honestly. <br />
<br />
I see something different in Matt Stafford. He seems to have grown up, to have moved from 'trying to look cool' to just playing to win. He's no longer trying to fake the intangibles; he genuinely seems to be displaying them. His poise in the pocket still isn't good, but it's kind of adorable in a messy way. His footwork is bad, but he compensates in other ways. He still makes bonehead decisions, especially on 3rd down, and throws the ball away before he needs to. But to me, he's a different quarterback this year.<br />
<br />
I'm not sure if Joe Lombardi or Jim Caldwell should get the credit for this apparent transformation. I would just give the credit to Stafford himself for growing up. Either way, I think this week is a big opportunity to make a statement that these are not going to be the 'same old Lions.'<br />
<br />
Detroit 27-16.<br />
(Under 43.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Bears (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)<br />Predicted Line: CAR by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: CAR by 2.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I am incapable of picking Bears games correctly. Just when I think Jay Cutler has stopped sucking, he sucks worse than ever. Also, I can't stand Cam Newton. Better just stay away from this game.<br />
Panthers 26-24.<br />
(Over 46)<br />
<br />
<b>Browns (1-2) @ Titans (1-3)<br />Predicted Line: TEN by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: TEN by 1 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
No idea. Let's just take the home team and move on. Titans 23-20.<br />
(Under 44)<br />
<br />
<b>Rams (1-2) @ Eagles (3-1)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 8.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: PHI by 7 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Sure looks like a blowout on paper. But I don't fully trust Philly yet, especially their defense. Eagles 27-23.<br />
(Over 48)<br />
<br />
<b>Falcons (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)<br />Predicted Line: ATL by 1</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: NYG by 4.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Nope, no way I'm falling for the Giants in any way, shape or form. Falcons 28-13.<br />
(Under 50.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Bucs (1-3) @ Saints (1-3) </b><br />
<b>Predicted Line: NO by 12</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: NO by 10 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The Saints' 1-3 record is misleading; they are 0-3 on the road, and really should have won 2 of those games. They'll continue to be unstoppable at home. Tampa just doesn't match up. New Orleans 44-17.<br />
(Over 48.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Texans (3-1) @ Cowboys (2-2)<br />Predicted Line: DAL by 2</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: DAL by 6</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
What a stupid line. These are still the same Cowboys. Houston 24-18.<br />
(Over 46.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Ravens (3-1) @ Colts (2-2)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 4.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: IND by 3.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I will say Colts by 3, 24-21.<br />
(Under 49)<br />
<br />
...rest to come later ... <br />
<b><br /></b>
<br /></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-75494365173030221552014-09-25T19:50:00.002-04:002014-09-26T22:31:36.136-04:00Week 4 Picks<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Last week:<br />
10-6 ATS<br />
9-7 straight up<br />
8-8 over/unders<br />
<br />
Total:<br />
19-29 ATS<br />
24-24 straight up<br />
28-20 over/unders<br />
<br />
Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady are now a combined 2-10 against the spread. In my preseason preview, I said that Andrew Luck would take his place among those top 4 elite QBs sometime around week 9 of this season. Apparently I was 6 weeks off. Andrew Luck is the #2 quarterback in football <i>right now</i>, behind only Peyton Manning.<br />
<br />
Brees, Brady and Rodgers haven't exactly played in such a way to stay atop that list, but Luck has earned his way among the elite with consistently elite play. The formerly elite are just regressing: Brees because of age; Rodgers because of the curse of the celebrity-chick-girlfriend; Brady because of both. (Seriously, that curse was a real thing even before Justin Verlander completely fell apart. Aaron Rodgers is this year's marquee victim. Man, he looked ordinary against Detroit.)<br />
<br />
<b>Giants (1-2) @ Redskins (1-2)<br />Predicted Line: WAS by 6.5<br />Actual Line: WAS by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Front row seat on the Kirk Cousins Bandwagon! Redskins 31-14.<br />
(Under 45.5)<br />
<br />
Oops ...<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Packers (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)<br />Predicted Line: CHI by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: GB by 2 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
If I'm picking based on common sense and what I think I know in the core of my being, I'm taking the Packers. <br /><br />
If I'm picking solely based on what I've seen this year, I have to take the Bears. No question.<br />
<br />
Ugh. I don't know. I guess I'll say Bears 26-24.<br />
(Under 51)<br />
<br />
<b>Bills (2-1) @ Texans (2-1)<br />Predicted Line: HOU by 2</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: HOU by 3</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Both of these teams had a legitimate opportunity to jump out to a 3-0 start and they both flopped. Houston proved that without Arian Foster their offense is absolutely morbid, while Buffalo I guess re-proved that they don't know how to utilize a RB-committee for the millionth time. <br />
<br />
With Foster questionable, I guess I'll play it safe and say Ryan Fitzpatrick probably shouldn't be trusted as a favorite of any number when he doesn't have a running game. Bills 17-16.<br />
(Under 42)<br />
*If Foster definitely plays I'll change the pick to Texans 23-16; stay tuned.<br />
<br />
<b>Titans (1-2) @ Colts (2-1)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 8</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: IND by 8 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I generally like to take the points in a divisonal matchup with a high spread. However, with Jake Locker unlikely to play, that means it's the heralded Charlie Whitehurst versus the second best QB in the NFL. In Indy. Let's say Colts 31-13.<br />
(Under 46.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Panthers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)<br />Predicted Line: BAL by 1.5<br />Actual Line: BAL by 3.5 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Ravens 16-13.<br />
(Under 41)<br />
<br />
<b>Lions (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)<br />Predicted Line: DET by 1.5<br />Actual Line: DET by 2 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
With these two teams currently occupying the #1 and #2 spots in total defense, most pundits are calling for a low-scoring defensive battle. To me, that's just sloppy, lazy analysis.<br />
<br />To argue that these are the best two defenses in football is beyond asinine; it's ridiculous. Neither of these defenses is even a top ten unit; in fact I would say both are below the line of average. Not to say they don't have playmakers and solid run stuffers - they both do. But neither of these teams has an NFL-caliber secondary, and the Lions just lost their best linebacker for the season due to a sack dance. The cost of losing Tulloch can't go underestimated.<br />
<br />
What this game comes down to should be simple:<br />
<br />Lions offense - B+<br />
Lions defense - C+<br />
Jets offense - D<br />
Jets defense - C+<br />
<br />
Detroit's offense has Calvin Johnson- the best damn player in the NFL - along with Reggie Bush, Golden Tate, Joique Bell, a very good offensive line (it's true!) and a QB who can get the ball to them. Oh, and a couple of worthless 1st round pick tight ends.<br />
<br />
The Jets offense has no one to be afraid of. <br />
<br />
With both defenses good but not great, and the Lions having a massive advantage in offensive personnel, the only way this game could go in favor of the Jets would be if Rex Ryan coaches the pants of Jim Caldwell. <br />
<br />
Oh, wait. <br />
<br />
Shit.<br />
<br />
Let's say Jets 27-25.<br />
(Over 44.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Bucs (0-3) @ Steelers (2-1)<br />Predicted Line: PIT by 7.5<br />Actual Line: PIT by 9</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I know Tampa is abysmal and McCown is hurt, but I don't think Pittsburgh is good enough on either side of the ball to be favored by 9. Couldn't Mike Glennon play the garbage-time game of his life and complete the backdoor cover easily? He's playing for a job and a future contract, after all. Let's go Steelers 27-20.<br />
(Over 45.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Dolphins (1-2) @ Raiders (0-3)<br />Predicted Line: MIA by 3<br />Actual Line: MIA by 4 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Stupid London games. Dolphins 20-10.<br />(Under 40.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Jags (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1)<br />Predicted Line: SD by 14.5<br />Actual Line: SD by 13.5 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Jacksonville has lost by margins of 17, 31, and 27. They rank dead last in <i>both</i> passing defense and rushing defense thus far. All Blake Bortles has to do in his debut is not poop his pants and it'll be a success. Eh, what the heck, let's say Jacksonville covers. Bolts 31-24.<br />
(Over 45)<br />
<br />
<b>Falcons (2-1) @ Vikings (1-2)</b><br />
<b>Predicted Line: ATL by 4.5<br />Actual Line: ATL by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Speaking of rookie debuts, Teddy Bridgewater gets his first start against an Atlanta team that just scored 95 points last Thursday. And he likely never gets to play a game with Adrian Peterson in his backfield. That guy's luck turned from incredible to horrible in a hurry. Yikes. Falcons 26-6.<br />
(Under 47)<br />
<br />
<b>Eagles (3-0) @ 49ers (1-2)</b>Predicted Line: SF by 3<br />
Actual Line: SF by 4.5<br />
<br />
My upset special: Philly 27-17. <br />(Under 51)<br />
<br />
<b>Saints (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1)</b>Predicted Line: NO by 3<br />
Actual Line: NO by 3<br />
<br />
Some things are way too obvious. Like Drew Brees against the Cowboys defense. Saints 35-24.<br />
(Over 54.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Pats (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2)</b>Predicted Line: NE by 4.5<br />Actual Line: NE by 3<br />
<br />
Upset Special part two. Charles comes back in the big way, New England kicks lots of field goals. KC 24-19.<br />
(Under 46)<br />
<br />
That's it for this week, Go Lions!! <br />
<br /></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-61086570409379079042014-09-18T14:46:00.004-04:002014-09-18T14:46:45.234-04:00Week 3 Picks<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Followed up a stunning 3-13 week with a 6-10 week, to bring me to 9-23 against-the-spread this season. Thinking I might just quit here. Also ended up 7-9 straight up, as underdogs won 7 games outright. Peyton, Rodgers, and Brees are now 0-6 ATS and only 3-3 straight up. <br />
<br />
I did manage to go 9-7 in over/unders, so at least I did something right. I'm now 20-12 on the season in O/Us, and 15-17 straight up, which is pathetic. If I can go on a run of being above .500 in about six straight weeks, I may consider not deleting this blog from existence. <br />
<br />
Week 3 picks:<br />
<br />
<b>Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1)<br />Predicted Line: ATL by 5.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: ATL by 6.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Tampa has lost to QBs Austin Davis and Derek Anderson so far this year. Common sense says they can't beat Matt Ryan. But, Atlanta's defense can't be trusted to cover much of anything against a halfway comptent offense. We're due for a big Vincent Jackson game. Falcons 24-22.<br />
(Over 45)<br />
<br />
<b>Packers (1-1) @ Lions (1-1)<br />Predicted Line: GB by 2<br />Actual Line: DET by 1 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
As a general rule, the Lions should never be favored against Green Bay. Even if it's only by one point. I'll say Pack pull out a back-and-forth game, 37-33. <br />
(Over 53)<br />
<br />
<b>Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0)<br />Predicted Line: SD by 1</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: BUF by 1 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Ryan Matthews was lost for about a month last week, as were about 15 other relevant fantasy players. I don't think the Bolts will miss a beat. I definitely could see a letdown after upsetting Seattle last week, but that seems less probable than Jim Schwartz coordinating the defense of a 3-0 team. Chargers 27-23.<br />
(Over 44.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Cowboys (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)</b><br />
<b>Predicted Line: STL by 1.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: DAL by 1 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Three straight games with a spread of 1 point. Ugh. I guess I have to take Romo and the Dallas offense to be able to outscore Austin Davis. Plus DeMarco Murray is the odds-on favorite to lead the NFL in rushing at this point, especially with AP going to jail and Charles hurt. (And McCoy oddly being platooned with Darren Sproles). Cowboys 44-34.<br />
(Over 45)<br />
<br />
<b>Redskins (1-1) @ Eagles (2-0)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 6.5<br />Actual Line: PHI by 6.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
How can you possibly pick against Kurt Cousins right now?! I mean, yeah it was the Jags defense, but he put up a 109 QB rating with no mistakes last week. That's good against anybody. I actually want the Skins 29-26 in a dramatic comeback. <br />
(Over 50.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Texans (2-0) @ Giants (0-2)<br />Predicted Line: HOU by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: HOU by 2 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Copy-pasted from last week:<br />
"<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.6800003051758px;">After watching Eli Manning in person, I vow not to pick the Giants once this entire year. What a pathetic sack of crap." </span><br />
Texans 24-6.<br />
(Under 41)<br />
<br />
<b>Vikings (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 12.5<br />Actual Line: NO by 10.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
There could be no better remedy for the Saints - the most disappointing 0-2 team by far - than to finally get a home game against the drama-drenched Vikings who were forced to willingly bench their superstar player because of media outrage, highlight by losing a major sponsor (Radisson) and admonishment from the state's <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/9/16/6232527/adrian-peterson-suspension-child-abuse-minnesota-governor-statement-vikings">governor.</a> (Oh what a surprise, there's an election in 2 months) <br />
<br />
If AP indeed is gone for the year, consider Minnesota in full-fledged tank mode. Saints enjoy a 38-6 bye week.<br />
(Under 50)<br />
<br />
<b>Titans (1-1) @ Bengals (2-0)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 7</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: CIN by 7</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I never want to lay 7 points with Andy Dalton, but throw in the injury to AJ Green and it's not even close. Bengals 20-16. <b><br /></b><br />
(Under 43)<br /><br /><b>Ravens (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)<br />Predicted Line: BAL by 1</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: BAL by 2 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Brian Hoyer looks pretty solid. Browns 17-16.<br />
(Under 42)<br />
<br />
<b>Colts (0-2) @ Jags (0-2)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 12</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: IND by 7 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Only 7? Really? I mean, the Jags are losing by an average of 24 points per game so far, and the Colts are suddenly in desperation mode. Can't make this line high enough. Indy 44-10.<br />
(Over 45.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Raiders (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 13</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: NE by 14.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The days of me trusting Tom Brady to cover large spreads are done. Pats 26-20.<br />
(Under 47)<br />
<br />
<b>49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)<br />Predicted Line: ARZ by 1</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: SF by 3</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Gotta take the points with the homedog in a division matchup. San Fran's defense isn't the same without Navarro Bowman. Niners 23-21.<br />
(Over 42.5)<br /><br />
<b>Broncos (2-0) @ Seahawks (1-1)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5<br />Actual Line: SEA by 4.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I could see a blowout happening either way in this Super Bowl matchup. Guess I'll take the points. Too bad this isn't the Sunday Night game. Seahawks 27-26.<br />
(Over 49)<br />
<br />
<b>Chiefs (0-2) @ Dolpins (1-1)<br />Predicted Line: MIA by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: MIA by 4.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Not only is Jamaal Charles out for KC with an ankle, but so is stud safety Eric Berry. And of course stud linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season week 1. That's their 3 best players. I'm thinking maybe this spread should be higher. Fins 27-13. <br />(Under 42)<br />
<br />
<b>Steelers (1-1) @ Panthers (1-1)</b><br />
<b>Predicted Line: CAR by 2.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: CAR by 3.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Man, Cam Newton sure seems like a douche. I would hate playing for that guy if I was on Carolina. This spread seems a little off; that half a point isn't making sense to me. I guess Carolina 27-24.<br />
(Over 42)<br />
<br />
<b>Bears (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)<br />Predicted Line: CHI by 4</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: NYJ by 2.5 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Speaking of spreads that make no sense .... huh? How are the Jets favored? What the heck am I missing? Bears 23-13.<br />
(Under 45.5)<br />
<b> </b><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Go Lions! </b></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-55250746503128552852014-09-10T23:20:00.001-04:002014-09-11T22:33:49.377-04:00Week 2 Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
With a 3-13 ATS record week one (8-8 straight up), that marks my single worst week of picking the games in 5 years. I have just put myself in a hole I won't be able to climb out of all season. I was 11-5 on over/unders if that counts for anything.<br />
<br />
The strategy of siding with the top QBs backfired, as Rodgers, Peyton, Brees and Brady went 0-4 against the spread and 1-3 straight up. Lots of stupid upsets and backdoor covers. Nice job of Jay Cutler to lose a home game as a 7 point favorite. Somehow I forgot what a loser he is. <br />
<br />
One of the biggest stories nobody is talking about is the Chiefs losing their best defensive player Derrick Johnson for the season. Their run defense just plummeted considerably and so did their already slim wildcard hopes. Same goes for Houston, losing Clowney for 4 weeks, probably longer. <br />
<br />
I also think it's a little self-righteous how everybody is trying to make an example out of Ray Rice, now calling for Goodell's job. Yeah the guy is scum and deserves to be suspended for the year, maybe for life. But let's not be naive; he got caught on video doing what dozens of players do every year and get away with, because they aren't on video. Goodell handled the situation terribly, but I don't think you fire a commissioner every time they mishandle a situation. Unless he gets caught in some kind of cover-up scandal, which at this point appears quite possible. <br />
*Edit - appears likely. <br />
<br />
Here are the week 2 picks:<br />
<br />
<b>Steelers (1-0) @ Ravens (0-1)</b><br />
<b>Thursday Night<br />Predicted Line: BAL by 1.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: BAL by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Instead of delving into the nuances of an unpredictable AFC North or discussing the disgusting Ray Rice situation ... here's <a href="http://deadspin.com/antonio-brown-introduces-the-front-heel-kick-to-the-nfl-1631667427">this instead.</a> This is why we love football. <br />
<br />
Steelers 20-18.<br />
(Under 44.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Lions (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0)<br />Predicted Line: CAR by 1</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: CAR by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Cam Newton is apparently closer to probable than questionable at this point, which explains the spread. With Cam's rib injury limiting his mobility and ability to throw the ball, and with Carolina's complete lack of offensive weapons, Detroit's piss-poor secondary has a chance to survive two weeks in a row without getting exposed. <br />
<br />
Two quick sidenotes ...<br />
<br />
1. For your enjoyment - here is <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/carolina-panthers/post/_/id/8588/kelvin-benjamin-may-transform-panthers-offense-but-hes-no-megatron-yet">one of the worst sports articles I've ever read</a>, comparing Calvin Johnson (the best WR in the NFL hands-down - maybe the best overall player - and a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer) ... to Kelvin Benjamin (who has played 1 game in the NFL, and by my count is maybe the 8th best receiver in the NFC South.) <br />
<br />
2. In case you were wondering what an ass Cam Newton is, watch <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RGmXA4jnFA">this</a>. Not only are his body language and tone of voice completely dismissive and arrogant, but the way he is wearing that hat suggests elite levels of doucherity. Also, he can't seem to speak a coherent sentence. He says over and over that he needs to be protected <i>with </i>Suh and Fairley, instead of <i>from</i> Suh and Fairley. I understand misspeaking once...but saying it wrong 5 times in a row? I am of the opinion that he's just an self-obsessed idiot. <br />
<br />
Unfortunately, he's a pretty talented idiot, and worse yet, the Panthers have a great freaking defense. If Detroit couldn't run the ball whatsoever against the crappy Giants (30 attempts, 76 yards, 2.5 YPC), how are they gonna run on Luke Kuechly and last year's #2 rushing defense? Easy answer: they're not. <br />
<br />
But if Joe Lombardi and Caldwell neglect the 1st and 10 runs and commit to throwing the ball 60 times, Detroit can plan on racking up crazy yardage against a lousy secondary. Stafford is clearly back to 2011 form; after two stupid seasons of sidearm flicks and undisciplined mechanics (and an 11-21 record), you can already see a drastic and positive change in the Lions quarterback. Credit Caldwell, credit Lombardi, credit Stafford himself. Who cares. The guy is on his way to an efficient and dominant season. The sidearm didn't show up once Monday Night and that spells a playoff run. <br />
<br />
Of course, the O-line needs to protect Matthew from a scary Panthers pass rush, and that won't be easy. We won't have another turnover-free game. But Calvin could easily top 150 yards again, and if Carolina chooses to double-team Megatron (which the Giants stupidly <i>did not do </i>to their own demise), that gives Ebron and Tate a chance to finally make some noise. The one Lion who needs to step up is Joique Bell. He looked like he spent a little too much time with Mikel LeShoure this offseason; another game full of those worthless 2 yard runs and the RB timeshare will be history. <br />
<br />
Overall, I love the Lions chances to win their road opener. There will be mistakes early and some adversity playing on the road, but they'll get it done in a comeback. 23-17. <br />
(Under 43.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Dolphins (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)</b><br />
<b>Predicted Line: BUF by 2</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: MIA by 1 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Both teams won last week as huge underdogs. Remarkably one of them will be 2-0. I'd like to see it be Buffalo. Bills 16-10.<br />
(Under 43)<br />
<br />
<b>Jags (0-1) @ Redskins (0-1)<br />Predicted Line: WAS by 7<br />Actual Line: WAS by 6 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Redskins haven't shown to be good enough on either side of the ball to cover this many points. Beware the Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts combo!! Skins win 26-24.<br />
(Over 43.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Cowboys (0-1) @ Titans (1-0)<br />Predicted Line: TEN by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: TEN by 3.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Turns out the Cowboys D is as bad as advertised. Tony Romo is much worse. Holy crap was he bad. Can I go back and change my 8-8 prediction for Dallas? They aren't winning more than 4 games. Philly might win the East at 6-10. <br />
<br />
The Titans just beat up on the Chiefs; I'm not gonna pretend like I watched a minute of that game, but hey, Jake Locker's numbers look very solid. Good enough for me to start wondering if Tennessee might challenge Indy for the AFC South. I'll go ahead and say Titans 37-27.<br />
(Over 49.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Cardinals (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)<br />Predicted Line: ARZ by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: ARZ by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
After watching Eli Manning in person, I vow not to pick the Giants once this entire year. What a pathetic sack of crap. Cardinals 28-0.<br />
(Under 43)<br />
<br />
<b>Patriots (0-1) @ Vikings (1-0)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 4.5<br />Actual Line: NE by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I knew I shouldn't have picked Brady to cover 6 points on the road. How many times does he freaking have to dupe me into thinking he can still cover big spreads?! Screw it; Vikings win 27-26. The AFC East is Buffalo's division to lose!<br />
(Over 49)<br />
<br />
<b>Saints (0-1) @ Browns (0-1)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 5.5<br />Actual Line: NO by 7 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I don't typically like the Saints outdoors, on grass, or against the AFC. Brian Hoyer seems to know something about backdoor covers and inexplicably close contests. I'm not feeling this spread at all. Saints 24-20.<br />
(Under 47.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Falcons (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 4.5<br />Actual Line: CIN by 5 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Massive overanalyzing of the matchups leads me to want to take Cincy to cover. Their roster is so superior to Atlanta's. But there is one simple fact compelling me to take Atlanta.<br />
<br />
Matt Ryan > Andy Dalton<br />
<br />
I will say Bengals 24-23.<br />
(Under 48)<br />
<br />
<b>Rams (0-1) @ Bucs (0-1)<br />Predicted Line: TB by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: TB by 6 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Apparently the Rams quarterback will be some guy named Austin Davis, with Shaun Hill out with a thigh injury. All I can find out about Austin Davis is that he was undrafted in 2012 and cut from a couple practice squads. Hmm ... Also, Rams stud DE Chris Long is out for up to 2 months with ankle surgery. So take the Bucs in a no-brainer, right?<br />
<br />
Nah. 6 points for Josh McCown to cover doesn't seem right. Plus, the Bucs D just got lit up by Derek Anderson and DeAngelo Williams. No reason to think Zac Stacy can't rush for 130 yards and keep it close. How about Tampa 24-20.<br />
(Over 43.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Seahawks (1-0) @ Chargers (0-1)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 5.5<br />Actual Line: SEA by 6 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I have a feeling I'm going to pick every single Seattle game wrong this season. They are capable of blowing out anyone, but I have to think on the road they'll have some close calls. I like San Diego this year and I'm sticking to what I think I know. Bolts keep it close, but fall to 0-2. Seattle 27-24 in OT. <br />
(Over 44.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Texans (1-0) @ Raiders (0-1)</b><br />
<b>Predicted Line: HOU by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: HOU by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Oakland is going to give the Giants a serious battle for the #1 pick. <br />
<br />
Coincidentally, Houston plays the Giants next week, which means Ryan Fitzpatrick will be sitting at 3-0 ... and could be headed into this year's annual Highly-Improbable-Matchup-of-Undefeated-Teams. Against his former team - the potentially 3-0 Bills! Gotta love the drama! <br />
<br />
But just by virtue of Ryan Fitzpatrick being a road favorite, I'll say the Texans do not cover, and win 17-15. <br />
(Under 39.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Jets (1-0) @ Packers (0-1) </b><br />
<b>Predicted Line: GB by 12.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: GB by 8.5 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Looks like we're getting about 4 points of value on this spread because the national public watched Green Bay get beat up in Seattle. They've now had a few extra days to prepare for possibly the worst roster in the NFL. With Cobb, Nelson and Lacy all healthy, the Packers will score early and often. Green Bay 38-26. <br />
(Over 46)<br />
<br />
<b>Chiefs (0-1) @ Broncos (1-0)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 10.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: DEN by 13 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Despite the loss of Derrick Johnson and the horrid play of Alex Smith last week, I don't like laying this many points in a division game. Broncos 37-27.<br />
(Over 51.5)<br />
*EDIT -- changed my mind. Broncos 37-20. <br />
<br />
<b>Bears (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0)<br />Predicted Line: SF by 4</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: SF by 7 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Nice overreaction line to the Bears loss against Buffalo. I'm all over that. Niners 27-26. Wouldn't be shocked to see Chicago pull the upset. <br />
(Over 48.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Eagles (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: IND by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
On Monday afternoon, LeSean McCoy left a 20 cent tip on a $60 bill at a restaurant in order to <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11508449/lesean-mccoy-philadelphia-eagles-left-20-cent-tip-statement-service">make a statement </a>about the importance of good customer service. Apparently the waiter was rude and disrespectful. <br />
<br />
I'm not sure how I feel about this. Why 20 cents? Why not 2 bucks? 10% would have still been a bad enough tip to make a statement. I also would really like to know what was so disrespectful. Was the guy racist? Does he have a grudge against football players who bullied him in high school? Or is he just a crappy waiter to everyone. This story should be analyzed in greater detail - not for the controversy or drama, but because it's perplexing and fascinating.<br />
<br />
I'll take the Colts 31-27.<br />
(Over 54)<br />
<br />
<br />
Go Lions!!<br />
</div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-61241093544533620342014-09-01T14:31:00.002-04:002014-09-03T11:20:33.303-04:00Week 1 Picks<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">My history of NFL picks: </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.6800003051758px;">2009 - 67.3% - straight up </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.6800003051758px;">2010 - 51.7% - against the spread (ATS) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.6800003051758px;">2011 - 54.3% ATS </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.6800003051758px;">2012 - 50.4% ATS, 61.5% straight up </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">2013 - 53.1% ATS, 66.0% straight up; also 52.0% over/unders</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Packers @ Seahawks</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Thursday Night</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: SEA by 4</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SEA by 6 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">In nearly every fantasy league, the Seahawks D/ST were the first to be drafted. Likewise, Aaron Rodgers was a consensus top three fantasy quarterback. But weirdly enough, I would not start either option in this matchup. (</span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">In fact, I picked up Ryan Fitzpatrick to start over Rodgers this opening week. That's how much I don't want to play a QB against Seattle's secondary </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">in Qwest Field.) The combination of Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman should be able to eliminate any passing attack in the NFL, including Denver's, as we saw last February. There's only one way to score on the Seattle defense, and that is to run the ball early and often. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Thus, Green Bay figures to have a chance, due to the surprising emergence of Eddie Lacy. (Who, interestingly, is the only running back from Alabama's dominant 2010 team to have any success in the NFL, while his highly-touted former teammates (Richardson and Ingram) have sucked). With Lacy, the Packers can </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">neutralize the historically good Seattle secondary by establishing a ground game early and forcing the safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This opens up the play-action, where Rodgers is deadly. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Green Bay's D, with newly acquired Julius Peppers alongside Clay Matthews, should be able to put pressure on Russell Wilson and keep Marshawn Lynch in check. I don't see Seattle scoring more than 20-24 points with their lackluster receivers. (Unless Percy Harvin breaks a huge play or two). </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'm going to take the Packers in a bit of a shocker to kick off the season. 27-23. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 46) </span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Saints @ Falcons</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: NO by 2.5 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NO by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'll be picking against Atlanta for the majority of the season, at least until the public realizes how bad the Falcons defense is. Most people think they'll bounce back into playoff form. I highly doubt it. Sure, Julio Jones is back, and the offense won't be stagnant anymore. But they ranked 32nd in rushing yards a season ago, and Steven Jackson didn't get any younger. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu8AtuzQaKU">Devonta Freeman</a> (impressive instincts and vision) will be solid someday, but it'll take too long for old-school Mike Smith to pull the plug on S-Jack's dwindling career. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But the biggest issue at hand here is Drew Brees carving up a very poor Atlanta secondary. Only Oakland allowed a higher QB rating last season, and only the Rams gave up a higher YPA. And even the homer website The <a href="http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2014/9/1/6087871/can-the-falcons-succeed-without-a-strong-pass-rush">Falcoholic</a> understands Atlanta doesn't have a pass rush. They won't be able to pressure Brees, nor can they cover his receivers. Long day for Atlanta's D, lots of mop-up duty for the Saints RBs. New Orleans 35-20. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 51.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Vikings @ Rams</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: STL by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: STL by 4 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">In the week one battle between Matt Cassel and Shaun Hill, there truly is no winner. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Rams have the better coach, the better D by far, and homefield advantage. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Vikings have Adrian Peterson ... and that's about it. Sounds like a pretty even matchup. I'll say Rams 20-17. Go Shaun Hill! </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 43.5) </span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Browns @ Steelers<br />Predicted Line: PIT by 7</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: PIT by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">There's nothing sexy about Brian Hoyer, but it was a smart decision to start him over Johnny Football, for many reasons. The best reason is that his experience and instincts gives Cleveland a better chance to win some early games than Johnny learning on the fly and flipping everybody off. Cleveland actually has the two best players in this game (Joe Thomas, Joe Haden) and with a healthy Ben Tate, they could things interesting. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But Pittsburgh has a lot better depth and overall talent, not to mention superior coaching, quarterbacking, and homefield advantage. With Haden locking down Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton could make a big name for himself early. 27-17 Steelers. (Over 41) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Jaguars @ Eagles<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 8.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: PHI by 10 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">That feels like too many points to give too early in the season. Eagles settle for too many field goals and win 26-20.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 53) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Raiders @ Jets</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: NYJ by 5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NYJ by 5.5</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I loved the Raiders decision to go with rookie QB Derek Carr over Matt Schaub. (Interesting that Carr is the only rookie QB starting in week one, in a group that includes Bortles, Bridgewater, and Manziel.) Not sure how much Oakland's decision had to do with Carr looking NFL-ready, or Schaub looking embarrassingly terrible. Either way, I loved it. The Jets suck too much on both sides of the ball to be favored by six points, even against Oakland. I'll say Jets win 21-17. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 40) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bengals @ Ravens<br />Predicted Line: BAL by 2</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: BAL by 1.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">A couple of woefully overpaid and underperforming quarterbacks, and two very solid defenses. I'm gonna take the under (43). And although I can't see many teams stopping the duo of Gio Bernard and AJ Green, I'm gonna go with Baltimore to win. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Favored by less than 2 points at home, the Ravens essentially</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> open the season as disrespected home underdogs to their division rival. That should play up enough motivation. Baltimore 22-17. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 43) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bills @ Bears </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: CHI by 6.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CHI by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Let's see if Jim Schwartz brought his trademark undisciplined stupidity to the Bills defense... Yes, <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/08/video-the-buffalo-bills-wont-stop-fighting-with-each-other">I'm thinking he did</a>. Anytime your center is screaming "I'll fucking kill you!" at your defensive end, you know it's gonna be a great season. Also, EJ Manuel not being voted as a team captain is very indicative of trouble with the offense. He's got a Josh-Freeman-esque-something-is-wrong-with-him vibe. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">As for the Bears, the defense is going to be terrible, but the offense is going to so good that it won't matter. Forte, Marshall and Jeffery combine for 5 TDs, and the Bears roll 38-13. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 48.5) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Redskins @ Texans </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: WAS by 1.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: HOU by 3 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Two teams eager for a rebuilding. Washington is finally done with Mike Shanahan's shenanigans of changing starting running backs every 45 minutes, and Houston is officially done with the Kubiak/Schaub Era, and ready to begin a new era under the terrifying Watt/Clowney twosome. Our starting QBs here aren't all that exciting - Robert "Twitter" Griffin vs. Ryan "He Went To Harvard" Fitzpatrick." But there is talent aplenty on both these teams, and a new excitement and hope, and solid running backs who will shoulder a big load all season. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'm anticipating a close contest that comes down to the wire. Ultimately, RG3 will either be a hero or a goat. I'm leaning toward goat. Texans 26-24. <br />(Over 45) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Titans @ Chiefs </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: KC by 5.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: KC by 4 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Titans have all kinds of potential to be the league's worst team this season. I have them pegged at 5-11 because of a decent defense and easy schedule, but if Jake Locker flops in his make-or-break fourth season they could wind up 2-14 or worse. It all hinges on Locker, the former #8 overall pick who is playing for a new contract. Unfortunately, he has no top-notch weapons surrounding him. Justin Hunter is a quasi-intriguing 2nd year sleeper, Kendall Wright is a good possession guy, and Nate Washington is always good for a 60 yard TD once every two months ... but the running game is going to be awful with a couple of tortoises in Shonn Greene and Bishop Sankey. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I think Locker would thrive in an Alex Smith or Russell Wilson situation, with a great running game and a coach who knows how to groom QBs. Locker has the athleticism to make a few plays a game. But he can't carry a team as untalented as Tennessee to more than a handful of wins. Jamaal Charles will have a big day here as Dwayne Bowe serves his one-game suspension. Knile Davis will vulture a TD. KC 27-20. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 43.5) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Patriots @ Dolphins</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: NE by 3</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NE by 5.5 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">With 83% of the betting on New England as 6 point road favorites, I am inclined to go the other way. This line seems too high considering Tom Brady stopped being Tom Brady about four years ago, and his stats have steadily declined across the board. But with Revis shutting down Mike Wallace and the Dolphins subpar O-line unable to contain the Pats front 7, I don't see Miami scoring much more than 13 or 17 points. New England should be able to muster 24 points just by running the ball and Brady dumping it off to Vereen and Edelman. I'll say Pats 26-17. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 47) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Panthers @ Bucs</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: CAR by 1.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: TB by 2.5 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This is slated to be the lowest scoring game of the week, with the over/under set at 39 points. With Carolina's astounding lack of offensive weapons and Cam Newton's myriad of injuries, combined with the Panthers fierce front 7 on defense, I am thinking I'll take the under. Vincent Jackson should have a good game against Carolina's nonexistent DBs, while Doug Martin gets routinely stuffed at the line. The Panthers' D will dare Lovie Smith to abandon the run and make Josh McCown beat them. I think McCown will do just enough to win Lovie's debut. Bucs 16-13. Cue the Cam-Newton-is-a-whiner stories. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 39)</span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>49ers @ Cowboys<br />Predicted Line: SF by 2.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SF by 5 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Everybody in America seems in agreement that Dallas's defense could be historically bad this year, with the losses of Sean Lee and DeMarcus Ware. Possibly true. But there are a vast number of really bad defenses in the NFC this year (Falcons, Redskins, Giants, Bears, Vikings, Eagles, even the Lions), that I don't understand the microscopic focus on how bad Dallas will be. What the Cowboys do have is an impressive cast of offensive weapons - Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Jason Witten, and breakout candidate Terrance Williams - to surround a competent and sometimes elite quarterback. In other words, the Cowboys will give up a ton of points, but they'll also score a ton of points. Are they really so different from Chicago and Philly? </span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Niners are in a bad spot right now, as Kaepernick looked terrible in the preseason, Aldon Smith is suspended for being an idiot, and Navarro Bowman is out for the foreseeable future. This is too many points to give with a homedog, especially one with great backdoor cover potential. Niners 26-24. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 51) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Colts @ Broncos<br />Sunday Night</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: DEN by 7.5 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Let's keep this analysis very simple: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Denver's offense: A++</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Indy's offense: A-</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Denver's defense: A-</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Indy's defense: D </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I love Andrew Luck as much as anybody, but there's no way he can match Peyton in this game. Denver's defense can throw Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, TJ Ward and Aqib Talib at Luck, who lacks a running game. Peyton can rack up 5 TDs while mixing in a healthy dose of Monte Ball. This will be the first of many blowouts for the Broncos. Denver 48-30. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 55) </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Giants @ Lions</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Monday Night</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: DET by 5<br />Actual Line: DET by 6 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I have the Giants going 3-13 and picking #1 overall next season, so clearly I don't think much of them. But does Detroit really have the mental fortitude to be 6 point favorites against anybody in any situation? Can we honestly trust the Lions secondary to not give up 250 yards to Victor Cruz? Can we trust Matt Stafford to not go 2 for 12 on 3rd downs and throw a couple idiotic picks into coverage? Can we trust Jim Caldwell to bring anything innovative or inspiring to this offense? The answers at this point are 'no' to all those questions. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">On paper, Detroit should kick the crap out of the Giants, running all over them with Bell and Bush, sacking Eli a half-dozen times, completely shutting down the Giants sad little running game, and racking up 500 yards of offense, led by 200+ for Calvin. Throw in a pick-six or two, and Kellen Moore should be able to play most of the 4th quarter while the Lions enjoy a 4-touchdown lead. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But honestly, I see this game playing out more like this: Lions go up 7-0 early, make lots of dumb mistakes and end up tied 10-10 at halftime when it should be 28-0, and then the defense shuts down Eli in the second half while Calvin takes over the game, and we end up with an underwhelming but somehow simultaneously convincing 27-10 win that never really feels as dominant as a 17 point win should feel. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 47) </span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chargers @ Cardinals<br />Monday Night</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: ARZ by 3</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: ARZ by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">70% of bettors have San Diego pulling the road upset, but this game is much more complicated than Phillip Rivers > Carson Palmer. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br />The Cardinals may have lost Darnell Docket and Daryl Washington this offseason, but they added Antonio Cromartie, who along with Patrick Peterson can shut down Keenan Allen and whoever else Rivers wants to throw to. Ryan Matthews has to have a great game for San Diego to really have a chance. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">San Diego's D is better than most people think, but it doesn't have adequate answers for Fitzgerald, Ellington, and Michael Floyd. Arizona is simply better on paper than the Bolts, and as long as Carson Palmer doesn't completely screw it up, they should be able to get the win at home. I'll say 24-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 45) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Go Lions!! </span></span><br />
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David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-73040444452667997492014-08-21T13:11:00.001-04:002014-08-21T13:11:09.054-04:00Over/Unders and Prop Bets <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
2014 predictions and prop bets. <br />
(All spreads taken from <a href="http://www.bovada.lv/">Bovada</a>)<br />
<br />
Top Ten Team Over/Unders:<br />
<b><br /></b>
Atlanta Falcons<br />
UNDER 8.5 wins<br />
Why: Defense is bad, division is tough, and not enough improvements since going 4-12.<br />
Bet: $30<br />
Odds: -150<br />
<br />
Cincinnati Bengals<br />
UNDER 9 wins<br />
Why: Andy Dalton, mostly. And a tough first-place schedule. <br />
Bet: $25<br />
Odds: -125<br />
<br />
Denver Broncos<br />OVER 11.5 wins<br />
Why: Elite quarterback, vastly improved defense. <br />
Bet: $50<br />
Odds: -105<br />
<br />
Green Bay Packers<br />
OVER 10.5 wins<br />
Why: Because Rodgers won't miss 7 starts this year.<br />
Bet: $60<br />
Odds: -115<br />
<br />
Indianapolis Colts<br />OVER 9.5 wins<br />
Why: My unflappable allegiance to Andrew Luck.<br />
Bet: $30<br />
Odds: -115<br />
<br />
New Orleans Saints<br />OVER 10.5 wins<br />
Why: Apparently I'm betting the OVER on all the great QBs. Seems like a logical strategy.<br />
Bet: $30<br />
Odds: -125<br />
<br />
New York Giants<br />
UNDER 8 wins<br />
Why: Finally, an UNDER I can support. I've got these fools pegged for 3 wins. Eli sucks.<br />
Bet: $75<br />
Odds: -125<br />
<br />
Oakland Raiders<br />
UNDER 5 wins<br />
Why: Betting the UNDER on Oakland has never failed me yet.<br />
Bet: $30<br />
Odds: +110<br />
<br />
Pittsburgh Steelers<br />
OVER 8.5 wins<br />
Why: Mostly because of coaching, and improved O-line. <br />
Bet: $40<br />
Odds: -140<br />
<br />
San Francisco 49ers<br />
OVER 10.5 wins<br />
Why: I've just got a hunch they sweep Seattle, which guarantees they'll reach 11 wins.<br />
Bet: $20<br />
Odds: Even<br />
<br />
Washington Redskins<br />
OVER 7.5 wins<br />
Why: I believe in the RG3 comeback year. <br />
Bet: $30<br />
Odds: -125<br />
<br />
And a couple team prop bets:<br />
<br />
Who will finish 2014 with the worst regular season record?<br />
--NY Giants, at 25:1 odds. Bet $30. (Payout would be $750)<br />
<br />
Division winners: ($20 each):<br />
--Washington to win the NFC East, at +375 odds<br />
--Panthers to win the NFC South, at +450<br />
--Steelers to win the AFC North at +200, I'll make this one $50<br />
--Colts to win the AFC South, at -200 odds. Easy money.<br />
<br />
Who will win the 2015 Super Bowl?<br />
--My pick, the Broncos, are the favorites, at 13:2 odds. Make this bet $30. <br />
--I'll also take the Packers at 10:1 odds and the Colts at 18:1, for $20 apiece.<br />
--And two longshots: the Lions at 33:1 and Carolina, at 50:1, for $10 each. <br />
<br />
Now onto individual player prop bets. Let's say these are all $25 each unless otherwise noted.<br />
<br />
Most Valuable Player: <br />
--Aaron Rodgers, 6:1 odds<br />
--Andrew Luck, 12:1<br />
--Robert Griffin III, 25:1, for $10<br />
--Johnny Manziel, 75:1 (just kidding)<br />
<br />
Leads the NFL in rushing yards:<br />
--Andre Ellington, 40:1<br />
<br />
Leads the NFL in receiving yards:<br />
--Antonio Brown, 16:1<br />
--TY Hilton, 40:1<br />
<br />
Offensive ROY:<br />
--Sammy Watkins, 6:1<br />
--Mike Evans, 12:1 ($10)<br />
--Cody Latimer, 33:1 ($10)<br />
<br />
Will Peyton Manning lead the league in passing yards, win MVP, and the Broncos win the Super Bowl?<br />
--Yes, at +2500 odds ($20)<br />
<br />
... </div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-82684667538882656852014-08-15T10:43:00.002-04:002014-08-24T23:51:07.579-04:00Preseason Predictions, 2014 <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
After a 7 month hiatus, I am back. Hello football blog!<br />
<br />
So I began my fantasy football research last week (about two months later than usual), and was shocked by how many skill position players changed teams. Miles Austin, Steve Smith, James Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, DeSean Jackson, Hakeem Nicks, Lance Moore ... did no middle-tier wide receivers remain on their team?? <br />
<br />
Then there's the running backs, where I found names like Ball, Lacy, and Stacy in the top 10. Seriously? When did that happen? <br />
<br />
Apparently 7 months of being an attentive dad and an avid fantasy baseball participant has affected my football IQ significantly. There is a lot of catching up to do, and very few weeks until Week 1 kicks off. Fortunately, I thrive under pressure, and I'm not afraid to make crap up. <br />
<br />
Here are my preseason predictions:. <br />
<br />
<b>AFC EAST</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Patriots -- </b>The addition of Revis more than offsets the loss of Aqib Talib, and two All Pros, Gronk and Mayo, should be back to full health...ish. The big question mark, believe it or not, is Tom Brady. Will he ever be a dominant offensive force again, or is he on the path of unmistakable regression? Ask any sucker who owned him in fantasy over the last two years, and it's the latter.<br />
<br />
Still, the Pats will win the AFC East for the 6th year in a row (and 11th time in 12 years), because of superior coaching, a great offensive line, a defense that retains four elite players (Wilfork, Mayo, Hightower, McCourtey) and now adds Darrelle Revis to the secondary, and above all, because a regressing Tom Brady with one hand tied behind his back is still twice as good as any other quarterback in the division. <b>Prediction: 11-5</b><br />
<br />
<b> Dolphins -- </b>Aside from Cameron Wake, Miami is a team devoid of talent. Mired in a bullying scandal and mediocre quarterback play, their offense ranked in the bottom 7 in both yards and points last season. Mike Wallace proved to be a money-minded disappointment. Aside from a few upgrades to the offensive line (ie. overpaying Branden Albert), basically nothing was done to improve the offense and give Ryan Tannehill some legitimate weaponry. Brian Hartline and Knowshon Moreno? No defensive coordinator is going to fear that duo. <br />
<br />
But again, the AFC East is lousy, and Miami's defense tends to keep them competitive, at least as long as Wake stays healthy. Dion Jordan could have a breakout year. The secondary is good, not great. And who knows, maybe Tannehill will break out of his John Navarre slump and put the offense on his back. <b> Prediction: 7-9</b><br />
<br />
<b> Bills -- </b>Buffalo has long served as an AFC counterpart to the Lions, so it's fitting that they signed Jim Schwartz to run their defense. He'll bring his wide-9 scheme and his smug arrogance to a Bills defense that lost its best player, safety Jairus Byrd, to free agency. Schwartz does get to tinker with an outstanding defensive line that features Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Marcel Dareus, but a lousy back-seven will betray them, just as it often did in Detroit. <br />
<br />
It's easy to fall in love with Buffalo's skill players on offense - the athletic young QB, the rookie phenom receiver, the quintessential running back tandem - but I'm not buying too much E.J. Manuel stock just yet. Surely Sammy Watkins will make Manuel a more effective passer, and improve his stats. But just like Calvin & Stafford, or Green & Dalton, an elite wide receiver does not transform a mediocre quarterback into an elite quarterback. He merely masks his weaknesses. And E.J. Manuel does not appear to even be a mediocre quarterback; his rookie season indicates he falls into the 'well below average' tier. So while I am buying Sammy Watkins stock all over the place, it won't be enough to make the Bills playoff contenders. <b>Prediction: 7-9</b><br />
<br />
<b> Jets -- </b>Geno Smith expects to be <a href="http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/11268373/geno-smith-new-york-jets-reacts-being-called-worst-starting-quarterback">a top 5</a> quarterback by this time next year. Dee Milliner already believes he is <a href="http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/11271081/dee-milliner-new-york-jets-says-best-cornerback-nfl">the best</a> cornerback in the league. (I'm assuming he means <i>excluding</i> the obvious names like Sherman, Peterson, Revis, Haden, etc...) You gotta love that trademark Jets confidence.<br />
<br />
However, their roster is the bleakest in a bleak division. The three big name additions - Mike Vick, Chris Johnson, and Eric Decker - and just that: big names. Vick is a trifecta of bad quarterback mojo (turnover prone, injury prone, and drama prone), the RB formerly known as Sonic is a hollow shell of his former self, and Decker is just the latest reincarnation of Brandon Stokley/Austin Collie/Token White Receiver that Peyton Manning makes look good. <br />
<br />
The Jets' defense boasts two absolute studs up front - Richardson and Wilkerson - but nothing in the secondary now that Cromartie is gone. Rex Ryan has proven himself to be a great coach who can win games with minimal talent, but this might be the end of the line. <b>Prediction: 5-11 </b><br />
<br />
<b>AFC NORTH</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Steelers -- </b> Everybody and their brother is predicting a rebound year for both Roethlisberger and the Steelers. I am too. Mike Tomlin is easily a top five coach, the defense is retooled and loaded with young talent, and there's just something stupidly lucky about these assholes. <br />
<br />
I like the low-risk additions to the offense (LeGarrette Blount, Lance Moore, Heyward-Bey), and I have Markus Wheaton pegged as a major fantasy sleeper (just like everyone else, which I suppose makes him no longer a sleeper). The offensive line has gone from weakness to strength, especially with DeCastro and Pouncey finally both healthy in the middle. Le'Veon Bell should have a nice year and allow Roethlisberger to do what he does best: deep bombs on play action. <b>Prediction: 11-5</b><br />
<br />
<b>Bengals -- </b>On paper, Cincinnati has the most talented roster in the division, and maybe the second best in the AFC behind only Denver. But it's that pesky quarterback position that means the most, and the $115 million redhead is painfully average. He mixes phenomenal games with total stinkbombs, and unfortunately those stinkbombs tend to take place in the postseason. Dalton falls into that Stafford/Cutler/Romo tier of quarterbacks who are surrounded by an elite cast of weapons, and have no excuses for not winning. There isn't a better WR/WR/RB trio in the AFC than AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and Gio Bernard. <br />
<br />
The defense is also stacked, but will miss D-coordinator Mike Zimmer, now the Vikings coach. Geno Atkins is probably the best DT in football, and is flanked by stud linebackers Carlos Dunlap and Vontaze Bufict (who led the NFL in tackles in 2013). The secondary is pretty old and Leon Hall is trying to return from a major injury, so that could be Cincy's weak spot. They also have to face a first-place schedule that includes Denver and New England. <b>Prediction: 7-9</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Ravens -- </b>The Ravens are a sneaky bounce-back contender this year, despite being primarily known as the idiots who made Joe Flacco the highest paid player in the NFL. While the majority of Baltimore's preseason press has gone to Ray Rice and his domestic violence situation, the focus should be on Baltimore's defense, which improved significantly when Ray Lewis and Ed Reed left. A quartet of absolute stud defenders (Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Lardarius Webb) is now joined by rookie linebacker C.J. Mosley, a future star and the guy the Lions probably should have taken in the 1st round instead of a backup tight end. The Ravens defense will be good enough to keep them competitive in every game.<br />
<br />
Which is important, because Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and Steve Smith aren't scaring anybody. Torrey Smith should have a solid year, and the return of Dennis Pitta (Flacco's favorite target) can't be underestimated. But still, this offense will sputter a lot without a running game, and Flacco won't possibly be able to play well enough to escape the shadow of his preposterous salary. <b>Prediction: 9-7</b><br />
<br />
<b>Browns -- </b> The similarities between Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel are well documented, in terms of hype and obnoxious media coverage, but the two couldn't be more different. Tebow makes news for being pro-life and a virgin. Manziel takes selfies with Justin Bieber. Tebow is humble to a fault, virtuous to the point of nausea. Manziel clearly loves himself, willfully inflates his own hype, and enjoys playing the villain. Both Heisman winners had illustrious college careers and were drafted in the late first round, and both have glaring limitations (Tebow's arm, Manziel's size), but they have almost nothing else in common. Except that they both annoy the crap out of me. <br />
<br />
However, I actually rather like Johnny Football as a late-round fantasy flier. He will pile up running yards, and tight end Jordan Cameron will finish the season as a top 3 player at his position. But the suspension of Josh Gordon kills the offense, and Ben Tate won't stay healthy. Terrance West is the running back to keep an eye on. <br />
<br />
Cleveland does possess two of the best players in the NFL in LT Joe Thomas and CB Joe Haden, and an above average defensive line. If Josh Gordon weren't suspended, I would see some decent sleeper potential here. But it'll be a training wheels season for Johnny Football, with a few magnificent highlights scattered among lots of turnovers and sacks. <b>Prediction: 6-10</b><br />
<br />
<b>AFC SOUTH</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Colts -- T</b>here is a clear demarkation of the top 4 quarterbacks in the NFL right now: Manning, Brees, Rodgers, and Brady. But with 3 of those guys at older than 35, the obvious question is which young QBs will rise to elite QB status, and how soon? <br />
<br />
Segueway to Andrew Luck, the logical successor. There's no doubt Luck will one day take his place among the game's best quarterbacks. But my assertion is that day will happen much sooner than most people think. I'll say ... by about week 9 of this season. <br />
<br />
Luck has all the tools, mental and physical, and his third season is the logical time for him to take the leap into superstardom. By November, all the Mortensens and Schlereths and Grudens will be saying, "I'll tell you what guys, Andrew Luck just might be the best overall quarterback in the National Football League ... right now!" Of course, that'll be an overreaction. But not a drastic one. <br />
<br />
As Luck distances himself from the RGs and Wilsons and Newtons, the Colts will keep on winning. Who cares what the rest of the roster looks like. <b>Prediction: 12-4</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Texans -- </b>It's fun to think of J.J. Watt and JaDaveon Clowney on the same defensive line, but last year's Texans went 2-14 because of inept offense, not defense. They were 31st in scoring, they led the AFC in turnovers, and threw something like 25 pick-sixes. Replacing Matt Schaub with Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't solve those problems. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson are a few years removed from their primes. Things won't be pretty for the Texans offense. <br />
<br />
But their defense alone will win them a lot more than 2 games. Watt and Clowney will cause all kinds of havoc, and the secondary is good enough to take advantage. Jonathan Joseph could be in for an All Pro year thanks to all the pressure his DEs will create. The linebackers are also good, led by Brian Cushing and Brooks Reed. This team is much better than their 2-14 record. How far can they go with Fitzpatrick and a rookie head coach? <b>Prediction: 7-9</b><br />
<br />
<b>Titans -- </b>I don't think there's a team in the NFL with less star power than the Titans. No big names, no interesting stories, not even a fantasy player in the top 20 at any position. Rookie running back Bishop Sankey will get lots of sleeper buzz, because he's a rookie with a lock on the starting job. But it only took me 30 seconds on youtube to identify him as a slow plodder. Yeah, he'll score from the 2 yard line a few times and get 60 yards per game on 20 carries, but he's not the breakout star anyone is looking for. <br />
<br />
Nobody on this team is interesting. Lots of B and C talent, but no A players. Not a one. I suppose Jake Locker could stay healthy and show everybody why he was considered the no-doubt #1 overall pick so many years ago. But I'm not holding my breath on that. <b>Prediction: 5-11</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Jaguars - </b>The perennially boring Jaguars finally found the cure to NFL anonymity. They got themselves a quarterback battle. Blake Bortles vs. Chad Henne! I even heard VanPelt talking about it on the radio today. <br />
<b><br /></b>
Hopefully Bortles will win the job early and make Jacksonville at least watchable. Last year they simply did not belong among the other 31 NFL teams. They were dead last in so many statistical categories I can't even begin to list them. <br />
<br />
Admittedly, their defense is a solid C+. But the offense grades lower than an F. Maybe like a Q. Somehow, I don't see Toby Gerhart being the magical elixir. <b>Prediction: 3-13</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>AFC WEST</b><br />
<b><br /> Broncos -- </b>Barring an injury to Peyton Manning, Denver is a lock to win at least 12 games again, and maybe more. The defense added DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, and T.J. Ward, all of whom are among the best at their respective positions. Ware and Von Miller form a pass rushing duo that may actually be the best in the AFC, which is a high compliment considering the competition (Baltimore's Suggs/Dumervil; Houston's Watt/Clowney).<br />
<br />
The Peyton Manning Machine will continue to score at will, and could actually be better. Emmanuel Sanders figures to be an upgrade over Eric Decker, and former All Pro tackle Ryan Clady returns after missing the entire season with an injury. Both Thomases (Demaryius and Julius) will be top 3 fantasy players at their positions, and Sanders and Wes Welker will be solid producers, along with Monte Ball. Keep an eye on Cody Latimer, the rookie from Indiana. Neither John Fox nor Peyton Manning have much history utilizing rookies, but they didn't draft Latimer in the 2nd round for him to ride the bench. <br />
<br />
Both sides of the ball are stacked, and it's Super Bowl or bust. <b>Prediction: 13-3</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Chiefs -- </b>Following an improbable jump from 2-14 to 11-5, history tells us Kansas City is bound to regress. Especially with a decidedly non-elite quarterback in Alex Smith. Of course, KC has one of the game's most dynamic playmakers in Jamaal Charles, and some A+ players on defense in Eric Berry and Tamba Hali. But there are quite a few negatives that lead me to believe the Chiefs are not headed back to the postseason. <br />
<br />
For starters, last year's #1 overall pick Eric Fisher is already shaping up to be a bust. Their best lineman, Branden Albert, went to Miami, and hybrid RB/WR Dexter McCluster went to Tennessee. Defenses will be able to put 8 or 9 in the box and bottle up Charles, and Alex Smith simply doesn't have the arm to make them pay. So that's the first problem.<br />
<br />
The other big problem is cornerback. The Chiefs have nothing to speak of at this marquee position. While they have great safeties and great pass rushers and great inside linebackers (Derrick Johnson), they've got nobody who really belongs as a CB2, let alone a CB1. With a more difficult schedule (the AFC West has the misfortunate of drawing the NFC West) and some key losses this offseason, the Andy Reid magic is quickly going to wear off in KC. <b>Prediction: 8-8</b><br />
<br />
<b>Chargers -- </b>San Diego finished strong last season, winning 5 of 6 games to snag a wildcard berth, and then trouncing the Bengals in the first round. They even gave the Broncos a close contest. Something about Keenan Allen rejuvenated Phillip Rivers (or maybe it was being free from Norv Turner). I like the efficiency of San Diego's offense, with Matthews and Woodhead complementing each other well and a spread-the-ball-around philosophy. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Dc0bmcddPw">Ladarius Green</a> will emerge as a stud tight end once Antonio "Game Time Decision" Gates starts missing action. Green is clearly of the Jimmy Graham mold - a wide receiver's skill set in a tight end's body.<br />
<br />
Defensively the Bolts are quite average. Some good young talent in Corey Liuget and Melvin Ingram, and a top-notch playmaking safety in Eric Weddle. Last year they ranked 23rd in yards allowed and 23rd in sacks; also 23rd in takeaways. They struggled in all aspects, ranking 28th against the run in terms of YPC, and 28th against the pass in terms of opponent's QB rating.<br />
<br />
As mentioned, they'll have the NFC West on the docket, along with Denver twice, so best case scenario would be maybe 10 wins. <b>Prediction: 9-7 </b><br />
<br />
<b>Raiders -- </b>Yikes. Do I really need to say anything more than "Matt Schaub" ? <br />
<br />
I did like their 2014 draft class. Khalil Mack will be a stud pass rusher, and Derek Carr (2nd round) could potentially be a franchise quarterback in 2015. But this year, they'll be unwatchable. <b>Prediction: 4-12</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>AFC Playoffs:</b><br />
<b>Broncos (13-3)</b><br />
<b>Colts (12-4)</b><br />
<b>Pats (11-5)</b><br />
<b>Steelers (11-5)</b><br />
<b>Ravens (9-7)</b><br />
<b>Chargers (9-7) </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>The rest: </b><br />
<b>Chiefs (8-8)</b><br />
<b>Texans (7-9)</b><br />
<b>Bengals (7-9)</b><br />
<b>Dolphins (7-9)</b><br />
<b>Bills (7-9)</b><br />
<b>Browns (6-10)</b><br />
<b>Titans (5-11)</b><br />
<b>Jets (5-11)</b><br />
<b>Raiders (4-12)</b><br />
<b>Jags (3-13)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>AFC Championship: Broncos over Steelers </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>NFC EAST </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Eagles -- </b><a href="http://dailysnark.com/napoleon-dynamite-nick-foles/">NickFolean</a> Dynamite took the Chip Kelly brand of offense to new heights last season, with an insane 27-2 TD to INT ratio. Of course that won't be replicated, but Foles did have a reputation coming out of college as a smart decision maker with an accurate arm. However, let us be cautious, because Josh Freeman once had a 25-6 TD to INT ratio, and we know how that turned out. Outliers exist; Foles is not a surefire franchise stud QB. Yet.<br />
<br />
But Philly is reasonably optimistic about their chances of ruling the NFC East. They have a dominant rushing attack (maybe the NFL's best), they experienced addition by subtraction when two selfish distractions (Mike Vick and DeSean Jackson) went elsewhere, and they fine-tuned to adjust to Kelly's speed-driven offense, with the addition of Darren Sproles and the increased use of athletic tight end Zach Ertz. Of course, a healthy year of Jeremy Maclin will help tremendously too.<br />
<br />
The defense isn't nearly as good as the Philly offense, but it's adequate. Walterfootball.com writes, "the Eagles are the best team in the worst division in football." Probably true. <b>Prediction: 10-6 </b><br />
<br />
<b>Redskins -- </b> It's en vogue for football writers to refuse to use Washington's nickname, and instead always refer to them as 'the football team from Washington DC.' Personally I'm not offended by the moniker. I don't know anyone who is. Someday it'll change to something safe, like the Washington Hogs, and that'll be a good thing, but for now I'm fine with it. I find the Cleveland Indians to be more offensive, or at least more idiotic, since Native Americans have nothing to do with India. <br />
<br />
Anyway, RG3 is finally, actually, really healthy, and now has the speedy diva DeSean Jackson to throw to, along with favorite targets Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon, and also new addition Andre Roberts. That is a very solid quartet of options, and Alfred Morris should thrive in the RB1 role now that the disaster of Mike Shanahan is <i>finally </i>gone. I italicize 'finally,' because Shanahan was fired about four years later than he should have been. His misuse of offensive strategy was borderline senile. <br />
<br />
This team is a huge candidate for a bounce-back season. I'm a big fan of new coach Jay Gruden. The defensive line is good (led by Brian Orakpo, when he's not playing Scrabble with cavemen, and Ryan Kerrigan), but the secondary is suspect at best. The Skins ranked 31st in scoring defense last season, and also 31st in passing defense in terms of YPA. Almost a mirror image of Philly - great offense, bad defense. Both have pretty easy schedules; except Washington gets Tampa and Minnesota, where Philly gets the Packers and Panthers. <b>Prediction: 10-6 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Cowboys -- </b>The annually overrated Cowboys have flipped the script; this year, everybody hates them. I haven't seen a single analyst peg them for more than 7 wins. Many people predict an early Jason Garrett firing, the team quitting completely, and a top 3 draft pick resulting in Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota. That certainly could happen. After all, the Cowboys defense was historically bad in 2013 (they allowed 300 yards more than the 31st ranked team), and now is without DeMarcus Ware.<br />
<br />
But, they still might have the best quarterback in the division. Call me crazy, but I believe in Tony Romo as an above-average regular season quarterback, and think he can single-handedly win 6 or 7 games. Throw in a solid supporting cast - Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, DeMarco Murray, fantasy sleeper WR Terrence Williams - and that offense could carry their awful defense to a mediocre season.<br />
<br />
Will that be enough to save Garrett's job? Very doubtful. But let's not give them a top 5 pick just yet. <b>Prediction: 8-8 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Giants -- </b>With 27 picks and 39 sacks, Eli Manning was arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL last season. He ranked in the top 12 in attempts, but finished 35th in QB rating, behind Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder, Matt Schaub, and other schmucks. He was simply horrendous. <br />
<br />
Nothing happened over the offseason to make me think the Giants can rebuild. Tom Coughlin has been treading water thanks to a couple fluky Super Bowls for a long time, and this year could finally be the end of his run. (And Eli's). I see the previously detailed Dallas scenario occurring for the Giants; 1-5 against the division, 0-4 against the NFC West, 2-2 against the AFC South, and losses to Atlanta and Detroit. That's a top 2 pick and a new franchise quarterback. Where will Eli head in 2015? <b>Prediction: 3-13 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>NFC NORTH</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Packers -- </b>Still the favorites in the North, the Packers will go as far as Aaron Rodgers takes them. They are no longer stacked with All Pros on defense like they were a few years ago, but they did acquire 34 year old Julius Peppers, to rush the passer opposite Clay Matthews. That's pretty frightening. The rest of the defense is very blah.<br />
<br />
But Rodgers is armed with weapons - Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb (now healthy), a few random guys who he will turn into fantasy darlings, and a revamped running attack led by Eddie Lacy. Also tackle Bryan Bulaga returns from an ACL injury. I suppose I could go on and on, but you already know Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the NFL, so it goes without saying... <b>Prediction: 13-3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Bears -- </b> Any impartial predictor would have to put Chicago ahead of Detroit, because of superior coaching, more balanced offense, and the fact that they haven't been fostering a culture of ineptitude for 6 decades. Plus, I have seen Matt Stafford and Jay Cutler both play a lot of games, and there's no doubt in my mind I would rather have Cutler. I strongly dislike them both, but Cutler is the better QB when it comes to winning games. <br />
<br />
Chicago's defense is terrible - 30th in yards allowed, 30th in points allowed, 32nd in rushing yards, 32nd in sacks, 25th in third-down conversions, 20th in takeaways - so they aren't a threat to Green Bay as far as winning the division. They'll almost certainly finish between 7 and 9 wins. But there isn't a better WR tandem in the NFL than Marshall and Jeffery, and not a better trio of weapons than those two plus Forte. The two games between the Bears and Lions will likely determine a Wildcard berth. <b>Prediction: 9-7 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Lions -- </b>The good news: Jim Schwartz is finally gone. His poisonous personality slowly permeated the entire roster, and dictated the style of play on the field. Lazy, angry, entitled, bratty, a complete lack of discipline. Hopefully that stench will be quickly forgotten.<br />
<br />
The bad news: when Jim Caldwell tried to coach without Peyton Manning operating as his quarterback (and <i>actual</i> coach), he helplessly watched the Colts begin the year 0-13, losing by an average of 16 points. So pardon me for having a memory that exceeds two years, but I am not buying into the "Caldwell has changed the Lions culture, he's a winner, he preaches excellence, no screwing around on his watch..." hype. Any coach who loses 13 straight games is missing something. <br />
<br />
With two new coordinators, both completely unproven in those roles, and a D+ secondary, it's just tough to be overly optimistic about this team. Heck, even the kicker sucks. <br />
<br />
I can try to talk myself into it. Golden Tate and Eric Ebron will take attention off Calvin Johnson, the two-headed rushing attack of Bush & Bell will be unstoppable, Pettigrew can focus on blocking, and for the first time EVER- the offensive line is a strength! Everything could finally click for Matt Stafford under the tutelage of some guy named Lombardi who turned Drew Brees into a record-shattering superstar!! <br />
<br />
But try as I might, I just can't talk myself into it. Sidearm Stafford has let me down too many times. His poor mechanics are under the constant scrutiny of talking heads, but it goes far beyond the stupid sidearm and bad footwork. He's just not a winner, or a leader. He doesn't have the "it" factor - call it poise, moxie, swagger, confidence, guts, whatever. Sure, we've seen flashes of it: the Browns <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EG9OYbZEbE">38-37</a> game as a rookie, and the marvelous jump-over-the-pile finish to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEb2k4epCEU">beat the Cowboys </a>last year. But a couple isolated instances does not an elite quarterback make. He visibly isn't prepared to face certain blitzes and coverages, and his decision-making ability has not improved since his rookie season. Not to mention, his athleticism stinks. He's slow, clumsy, awkward on his feet. Those one or two plays a game when he needs to escape the pocket and create some time with his legs, he's completely unable to do it. Sure, Peyton and Brady are purely pocket passers with no athleticism, but they're in their late 30s. Stafford is 26. He has no excuse for being so fat and out of shape. He's a professional athlete for crying out loud!<br />
<br />
As far as the defense, we can expect more of the same. It all centers around Suh: constant double-teams, a few WWF bodyslams, a suspension, plenty of personal fouls, but overall elite play which anchors an above average defensive line. The linebackers are nothing to scoff at - DeAndre Levy and Stephen Tulloch are both underrated and consistent tacklers, and Levy is fantastic in coverage. But it's the secondary, once again, that stands out as the weak link. Chris Houston is gone, Delmas is gone, and the signing of somebody called Ihedigbo isn't enough. There isn't a cornerback on this roster who belongs as a CB2, let alone a CB1. With 4 games against Cutler and Rodgers and the weapons they have, Lord help us.<br />
<br />
Did I mention yet that David Akers sucks?<br />
<br />
Fortunately, our schedule includes the AFC East, along with the Giants and Cardinals, and two games against Minnesota. Worst-case scenario, we should be able to scrap together a respectable 7 wins. If we can go 2-2 against the NFC South and 2-2 against the Packers & Bears, we ought to be able to snag a Wildcard with 9 or 10 wins. <br />
<br />
Detroit has the talent, it's just a few dumb plays here and there that create those losses. Could this be the year they finally discover the cure for stupid? Probably not. <b>Prediction: 8-8 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Vikings -- </b> For most of the 2013 season, it seemed a foregone conclusion that the #1 pick would result in Teddy Bridgewater. Then, the Combine and Pro Day and Mel Kiper took over, and everything changed. Clowney went 1st, Bortels was the top QB, and Bridgewater freefell all the way to the LAST pick in the 1st round, where the Vikings swooped into Seattle's spot and grabbed the Louisville phenom. <br />
<br />
Bridgewater seems to be the complete package: solid arm, solid size, solid athleticism, solid brain. He doesn't do anything at an elite level, but has no glaring weaknesses. Best case scenario, he seems like a slightly slower Donovan McNabb, but with probably a better attitude. Of course, it'll take him a while to adjust to the NFL, as it does with all rookie QBs. Bridgewater has the luxury of playing with the best running back since Barry Sanders, though, and can hand the ball to AP anytime he wants. Patterson and Rudolph give him a few good young targets also, and he has an anchor in left tackle Matt Kalil. Really, this is a solid situation Teddy is stepping into. <br />
<br />
The defense doesn't appear to be all that talented, save for stud safety Harrison Smith and youngsters Anthony Barr and Sharrif Floyd. But new head coach Mike Zimmer has earned a reputation for creating great defenses with unknown players. With the learning curve of a rookie QB and a rookie coach, you can't expect too much. <b>Prediction: 6-10 </b><br />
<br />
<b>NFC SOUTH</b><br />
<br />
<b> Saints -- </b>With Bountygate finally behind them, the Saints are back to being legit Super Bowl contenders, despite playing in a brutal division. I could almost copy-paste what I wrote about the Packers here, and substitute Brees for Rodgers. Any team with a top 4 quarterback should be expected to win at least 10 games, probably more. With Graham, Colston, Kenny Stills, and rookie Brandin Cooks (with the famous 4.33 40 time), Brees will have plenty of weapons to offset the loss of safety valve Darren Sproles. Khiry Robinson might give the Saints a legitimate running attack, while Mark Ingram's corpse rots away. <br />
<br />
The Saints' D is sneaky good this year, with Jairus Byrd brought in to play next to safety Kenny Vaccaro, the 2013 1st rounder. This is probably the NFL's best safety duo outside of Seattle. Also, Cameron Jordan (one of the <i>many</i> players the Lions should have taken instead of Nick Fairley) is a stud defensive end. <b>Prediction: 12-4 </b><br />
<br />
<b> Panthers -- </b>After an uninspiring 1-3 start, Cam Newton carried Carolina on an 11-1 stretch to win the division last season. Now many pundits are predicting decline for the Panthers, who lost their entire receiving corp, a few key offensive lineman, and three-fourths of their secondary.<br />
<br />
No doubt their roster is thin, but they have a top 10 QB who is closing in on top 5-6 range, and one of the best defensive front-7's in football, with All Pro Luke Kuechly in the middle, and DEs Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy combining for 26 sacks. The Panthers D was #2 overall in terms of both points allowed and yards allowed last season, trailing only the Seahawks in both categories. During their crazy 11-1 stretch, they only allowed more than 20 points on one occurrence, against New Orleans.<br />
<br />
With a brand new secondary, you can expect the defense to decline a little. And with no proven weapons for Cam Newton to distribute the ball to, except for slow tight end Greg Olsen, the offense will probably regress as well. They still have plenty of elite talent, but very little depth, and a brutal first-place schedule that includes a three-game stretch of Green Bay, Seattle, then New Orleans. <b>Prediction: 9-7 </b><br />
<br />
<b> Falcons -- </b>While everyone seems to be expecting the 12-4 Panthers to miss the playoffs, many are penciling the 4-12 Falcons into the postseason, all in the name of unpredictable parity. I know Julio Jones was hurt and now he's back, but is he really worth 5 or 6 wins over the course of a season? Of course not. <br />
<br />
Atlanta used the #6 pick on left tackle Jake Matthews, which was a steal, and they added a couple other decent pieces to the O-line to protect Matt Ryan. I do like Matty Ice, always have, but I can't help but wonder if his best days are behind him? I mean, 4-12 is a pretty inexcusable record for any QB who wants to be taken seriously. I don't care who was hurt. Also, Tony Gonzalez retired this past offseason. On some level, that matters too. <br />
<br />
Atlanta's defense was bad last year (27th in both yards and points allowed) and lost their best player, Sean Weatherspoon, to an Achilles injury in June. They added some low-risk, low-salary pieces to the defense, but nothing that will allow them to slow down Brees and Newton within their division. They will win more than 4 games for sure, but I don't see them even coming close to returning to 2012 form, when they went 13-3. <b>Prediction: 6-10</b><br />
<br />
<b> Bucs -- </b>I am too lazy to ever remember how to spell Buccaneers, and I'd really like it if Tampa would just change their official name to the Bucs.<br />
<br />
Tampa is definitely a darkhorse playoff contender under Lovie Smith. Josh McCown (AKA <a href="http://terezowens.com/josh-mccown-is-ivan-drago/">Ivan Drago</a>) has Vincent Jackson, rookie Mike Evans, a healthy Doug Martin, and a B+ offensive line to work with, and the defense did an adequate job of replacing Revis with Titans stud Alterraun Verner. Lovie also managed to sign DE Michael Johnson (21 sacks in the last 3 years with Cincy) to play next to recent 1st rounders Gerald McCoy and Adrian Clayborn. The best player on Tampa's D, and probably entire team is stud middle linebacker Lavonte David. If that name sounds familiar, it's because I was rooting for the Lions to take him in the 2nd round in the 2012 draft. They had a chance with pick 54, but passed up on the Nebraksa product who quickly developed into a 1st team All Pro ... because how could we pass up Ryan Broyles? <b>Prediction: 8-8 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>NFC WEST</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Seahawks -- </b>No good reason to think Seattle couldn't repeat as champs, except that there are quite a few solid contenders who may be just as good as them. The Seahawks definitely carved out a unique and specific niche in the NFL: overpowering secondary, run-first offense, smart quarterback who doesn't do too much. Their offense ranked 2nd in rushing attempts and 31st in passing attempts, and they led the NFL in turnover margin at +22, which was an amazing 8 points better than the next best ratio in the NFC, Carolina with +14. (Worst in the NFC? Lions, at -12. Go Stafford!) <b><br /></b>
<br />
<br />
Without question, there isn't a better secondary than Seattle's, nor is there a better homefield advantage. If their defense isn't the NFL's best, it's definitely in the top 3. They were 1st defensively in yards allowed, 1st in points allowed, 1st in takeaways, 1st in interceptions, 1st in opponent passer rating (63.4!!), and 1st in opponents YPA. In most of these categories, there was not a close second. <br />
<br />
Seattle lost a handful of starters, 5 of them by my count, but none were irreplaceable. And don't discount the fact that Percy Harvin returns for a full season. The schedule is pretty easy, with the NFC East and AFC West, but the division is difficult and bonus games are against Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. <b>Prediction: 11-5. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> 49ers -- </b>The Niners and Seahawks play each other weeks 13 and 15, and these two games will absolutely determine which team gets a bye in the playoffs. No disrespect to the Cardinals, who are the best 3rd best team in any division. But San Fran is as stacked as Seattle, albeit in difference areas. <br />
<br />
Overall, the 49ers offense is slightly better than Seattle's, with Vernon Davis and Crabtree and a trio of capable running backs in Gore, Hyde, and Lattimore. The offensive line is possibly the NFL's best, and Kaepernick is a freakish athlete, who could be harnessed into an unstoppable QB force, circa Michael Vick Madden 2004. <br />
<br />
San Fran's defense is understandably a step behind Seattle's, especially with Aldon Smith's inexplicable need to get arrested. (Seriously, $4.5 million a year and you're making bomb threats at the LA airport?) Justin Smith is still elite, and the inside linebackers are still the NFL's best duo by far, although Navarro Bowman won't be back from ACL surgery until mid-season. The Niners have the same schedule as Seattle, except they get Chicago & New Orleans instead of Green Bay & Carolina, which is dead equal in difficulty. So as mentioned, weeks 13 and 15 will determine the division winner. On a hunch, I'm giving both games to San Fran. <b>Prediction: 13-3</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Cardinals -- </b>Despite being quarterbacked by Carson Palmer, Arizona could make another run at double-digit wins. The offensive line has gone from legendarily bad to above average, the running game progressed from morbid Rashard Mendenhall to electric Andre Ellington, and Larry Fitzgerald gets to play opposite breakout-candidate Michael Floyd and the sometimes flashy Ted Ginn. This is the best offense Arizona has possessed since the Kurt Warner days, by far.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately the defense - which was poised to be elite - has taken some huge steps back. Pro Bowl linebacker Daryl Washington is suspended for the year for drugs and stupidity, and solid DE Darnell Docket is lost for the year with an ACL. Also, Karlos Dansby signed with Cleveland, after having possibly the best season of his 10 year career. That's three big blows to the league's #1 rushing defense. <br />
<br />
But they still have DE Calais Cambell, one of the best 3-4 DEs in football, and they still have Patrick Peterson, quite possibly the best CB in football. New addition <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpSwaVclOgU">Antonio Cromartie </a>joins the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gplm7S8YP7U">Honey Badger </a>to create the best trio of cornerbacks in football. From my perspective, Peterson and the Badger will make Arizona one of the most consistently entertaining teams to watch this season.<br />
<br />
But with four games against elite division rivals, the Cards are going to have to win at least 3 of those to have a shot at a Wildcard. I don't have that much confidence in Carson Palmer. <b>Prediction: 8-8 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> Rams -- </b>If you look up the word "understatement" in the dictionary, it says: <i>Sam Bradford hasn't played well enough to justify his 6 year, $78 million rookie contract.</i> He has been given numerous chances by the Rams - despite injuries, amidst new coaches and coordinators, and with a barrage of 1st round draft picks and marquee free agents aimed at protecting him and giving him new weapons. Sadly, Bradford just isn't going to get it done at the NFL level; even if he stays healthy this year, he's not going to magically transform into a top 10 quarterback. <br />
<br />
But, the offense does have some hope. Zac Stacy was a brilliant revelation last season, as was Tavon Austin. Kenny Britt was a nice low-risk signing with huge potential. LT Jake Long is a stud, and 2nd overall pick Greg Robinson will contribute right away to protecting the QB. But with 6 games against elite NFC West defenses, Bradford is in for another year of mediocrity.<br />
<br />
Defensively, Jeff Fisher has built a freakish machine up front. DEs Robert Quinn (19 sacks) and Chris Long (9 sacks) are joined by rookie 1st rounder Aaron Donald, who lines up next to 2012's #14th overall pick, Michael Brockers. The Rams were 3rd in sacks and 1st in forced fumbles a year ago; expect more of the same. The secondary stinks, but fortunately there isn't an elite passing offense in the run-first NFC West. <br />
<br />
The bad news: the Rams are the 4th best team in a brutal division. If they were in the AFC, they could absolutely contend for a wildcard spot. The good news: the Rams lead the NFL in gay players. So there's that. <b>Prediction: 6-10 </b><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>*Update: Bradford gone for the year with another ACL injury. Shaun Hill to start. </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>On the field, this doesn't affect the Rams offense as drastically as many think. The greater impact is on morale, for both players and fans. Any semblance of hope, as far-fetched as it was, is now dashed. In a bad division, sure, Shaun Hill might just go 9-7. But the 2014 NFC West has potentially the best quartet of defenses any division has ever had. Not a good time to lose your franchise quarterback; not a good time to be Jeff Fisher. I will stand by the 6-10 prediction (Shaun Hill is smart and steady and moves the chains), but I won't be shocked if a total emotional collapse leads to a 2-win season. After all, within 30 minutes of the news about Bradford's ACL, every Rams fan started thinking about Mariota, Hundley, and Winston. This is the most anticipated QB class since the Luck/Locker draft that never was; I expect full-blown tanking to begin by week 9. </i><br />
<br />
<b>NFC Playoffs:</b><br />
<b>49ers (13-3)</b><br />
<b>Packers (13-3)</b><br />
<b>Saints (12-4)</b><br />
<b>Eagles (10-6)</b><br />
<b>Seahawks (11-5)</b><br />
<b>Redskins (10-6) </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>The rest:</b><br />
<b>Bears (9-7)</b><br />
<b>Panthers (9-7)</b><br />
<b>Bucs (8-8)</b><br />
<b>Lions (8-8)</b><br />
<b>Cowboys (8-8)</b><br />
<b>Cardinals (8-8)</b><br />
<b>Rams (6-10)</b><br />
<b>Vikings (6-10)</b><br />
<b>Falcons (6-10)</b><br />
<b>Giants (3-13) </b><br />
<br />
<b>NFC Championship: Packers over 49ers </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Super Bowl Pick: Broncos over Packers, 31-27. </b><br />
<br />
<br />
Other predictions ...<br />
<b><br /></b>
MVP - Aaron Rodgers<br />
D-MVP - Patrick Peterson<br />
Offensive ROY - Sammy Watkins<br />
Defensive ROY - Clowney<br />
Coach of the Year - Jim Harbaugh<br />
Comeback Player of the Year - 3-way tie between Gronk, Harvin, and Doug Martin ... If I have to pick one, I'll go with Gronk<br />
1st Coach Fired - Dennis Allen, Raiders<br />
<br />
Top 3 picks in 2015:<br />
<br />
1. Giants -- QB Brett Hundley, UCLA<br />
2. Jags -- QB Jameis Winston, FSU<br />
3. Raiders -- QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon<br />
<br />
That's all I got. <br />
Go Lions! </div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-40161556635170038272014-02-04T12:08:00.001-05:002014-02-04T12:08:11.068-05:00NFL Season Results <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">After completing botching the Super Bowl pick, I finished up the 2013 NFL season: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">175-90-1 straight up (66.0%)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.68000030517578px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">136-120-2 against the spread (53.1%)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.68000030517578px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">80-74-4 over/unders (52.0%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">As for my Super Bowl prop bets, let's just say it's a good thing I didn't put any real money on my confidence in Peyton Manning. It would have gained me $168.80 and lost me $740, for a pretty huge deficit. Who could have imagined Peyton would play his worst game in <i>years </i>on the biggest stage? For all the discussion about whether or not his legacy would/could be affected by the Super Bowl, I didn't factor in the question: if he morphs into Joey Harrington when all the pressure is on, does that affect his legacy? I would have to say it does. Still the best regular season QB ever, still going to break Favre's major records in the next two seasons, and still on Mt. Rushmore among QBs. But his rep as the "non-clutch" foil to Brady's clutchness still remains. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Speaking of not-clutch, my stupid playoff picks were 3-7-1 against the spread. Picking against Seattle all three times evidently was not smart. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Still, ending up above 53% ATS is an accomplishment. Renowned blogger WalterFootball was at 52.3%. CBSsportsline's eight NFL experts all finished under 51%, with most of them below .500. And of course, ESPN's columnist extraordinaire Bill Simmons finished 34 games below .500, which is impossibly bad and could never be duplicated. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">So, I'll close the books on another season above .500, and sign off for now. Go Lions! </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-23139799821183472512014-01-30T16:42:00.001-05:002014-01-30T16:42:53.212-05:00Super Bowl Prop Bets <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
(All lines from <i>Bovada.lv) </i><br />
<br />
DEN (-3) over Seattle<br />
Bet $20 at -105 odds<br />
<br />
Total score: over 47 points<br />
Bet $30 at -120 odds<br />
<br />
Super Bowl MVP:<br />
Peyton Manning - $50 at +110 odds<br />
Russell Wilson - $25 at +375 odds<br />
<br />
Player to score the first TD in the game:<br />
Julius Thomas - $10 at +800 odds<br />
Knowshon Moreno - $10 at +900 odds<br />
<br />
Russell Wilson, total passing yards:<br />
OVER 209.5, bet $25 at -130 odds<br />
<br />
Russell Wilson, total completions: <br />
OVER 16.5, bet $25 at -130 odds<br />
<br />
Will Russell Wilson have a rushing TD in the game?<br />
NO, bet $60 at -350 odds<br />
<br />
Will Percy Harvin score a TD in the game?<br />
NO, bet $40 at -200 odds<br />
<br />
Richard Sherman, total tackles and assists<br />
UNDER 3.5, bet $20 at -115 odds<br />
<br />
Peyton Manning, total passing yards:<br />
OVER 290.5, bet $50 at -105 odds<br />
<br />
Peyton Manning, total passing TDs:<br />
OVER 1.5, bet $150 at -260 odds<br />
<br />
Peyton Manning, exactly 3 passing TDs:<br />
Bet $30 at +250 odds<br />
<br />
Total yards on Peyton's first completion:<br />UNDER 9.5 yards, bet $20 at -130 odds<br />
<br />
Eric Decker, 7.5 receiving yards more than Golden Tate<br />
Bet $40 at -115 odds<br />
<br />
Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?<br />
YES - bet $10 at +170 odds<br />
<br />
How many times will Eli Manning be shown on TV during the game?<br />
OVER 1.5, bet $25 at -140 odds<br />
<br />
Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff, Pam Oliver or Erin Andrews?<br />
OLIVER - bet $30 at even odds<br />
<br />
How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the game?<br />UNDER 2 times, bet $20 at -150 odds<br />
<br />
Will Michael Crabtree mention Richard Sherman in a tweet during the Super Bowl?<br />
NO - bet $50 at -500 odds<br />
<br />
Will Peyton Manning throw a pick-six?<br />
NO - bet $200 at -700 odds<br />
<br />
Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?<br />Teammates - bet $50 at even odds<br />
Other team - bet $20 at +1000 odds<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-65319553369235191682014-01-21T16:02:00.002-05:002014-01-30T16:12:21.092-05:00Super Bowl Pick <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Championship round recap:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">1-1 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">0-2 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">0-2 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.68000030517578px;"><span style="line-height: 17.671875px;">Total: </span></span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">175-89-1 straight up (66.4%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">136-119-2 against the spread (53.4%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">79-74-4 over/unders (52.0%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.68000030517578px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Playoff picks are now 8-2 straight-up, but 3-6-1 ATS. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Somehow I may have underestimated Peyton Manning, and overestimated the affect Jim Harbaugh would have on the NFC Championship. As far as this Richard Sherman nonsense, I guess I'm grateful that he has taken over for Ndamukong Suh as the most reviled defensive player in the NFL. As to this debate about whether or not he's a "thug," my opinion is that he's more of a douche bag, not necessarily a thug, but definitely a douche bag. A heck of a cornerback, and pretty entertaining, but he single-handedly made 90% of America want to cheer for the Broncos. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Unless, Sherman is a total genius, and he did all that psychopath-thuggishness crap to take all the attention off his 25 year old quarterback and let the national media focus on him for 2 weeks so Russell Wilson doesn't get overwhelmed by the spotlight and can just focus on football. I doubt Sherman is that smart, but at the least that's a pretty convenient byproduct of his douchebaggery. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I don't have a pick yet for the big game; I'm leaning toward Denver, for obvious reasons, but waiting to see where the line moves. It opened at DEN by 2. I'm thinking by game time it'll be Denver by 3.5 or 4. I'll probably take the Broncos. I mean, did you see Peyton Manning this season? Wouldn't picking against him qualify as "trying too hard to be cute"? </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">*EDIT* - The line is set at DEN by 3, and although 75% of Vegas is taking Denver, the 'sharps' seem to be siding with Seattle. It's pretty simple: Denver has the superior QB, Seattle has the better team. The logical, analytic choice seems to be Seattle, while Denver is the pick for people who don't know much of anything. Thus, I'm disappointed in myself that I've ended up in the Denver camp. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I just don't see Peyton Manning finishing his career with only one Super Bowl. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Broncos 28-24. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 47) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">.... </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">In other news, the Draft is beginning to heat up with the Senior Bowl and the scouting frenzy that ensues, and 30 of the teams in full-fledged offseason mode. Detroit finally has two coordinators (never heard of either of them), and a bunch of meaningless promises from their new coach. "We'll play smart." "We'll be relentless." "We'll protect the football." Blah blah blah. Whatever. Let's just endure two more frustrating years of Stafford so we can move on to the next Era of Incompetence. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Go Tigers! </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-50451218854309573772014-01-15T12:15:00.002-05:002014-01-15T12:15:54.959-05:00Conference Championship Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Divisional round recap:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">4-0 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">1-3 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">1-3 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.68000030517578px;"><span style="line-height: 17.671875px;">Total: </span></span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">174-88-1 straight up (66.4%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">136-117-2 against the spread (53.7%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">79-72-4 over/unders (52.3%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Playoff picks are now 7-1 straight-up, yet only 3-4-1 ATS; that's just annoying bad luck. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">For the Conference Finals, I have the road underdogs both covering, and San Fran winning outright to set up a Niners-Broncos title game. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Denver (14-3) is a 4.5 favorite against New England (13-4), with the betting public all over the Pats at a 78% clip. I spent most of this season fading the Patriots, mostly because I watched in anger as Tom Brady shattered my fantasy team's hopes. But the January Patriots are not the October Patriots; they have rebounded miraculously from the seemingly unrecoverable injuries to Mayo, Wilfork, and Gronk. They have recreated their team on the fly. LeGarrettee Blount's inexplicable emergence as Marshawn Lynch 2.0 exemplifies the trademark resurgence of a veteran left for dead that defines Bill Belichick's Hall of Fame career. Insane as it sounds, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEu3GzNDs74">Blount </a>might be the key player in the the 2014 NFL postseason. Who saw that coming? </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Denver is an offensive juggernaut, obviously, but the Pats' secondary seems to be coming together at the right time. Still, I can't get myself to pick New England straight up. Just seems too much like Denver's year. I have the Broncos 33-31 and the over (55.5). </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The 14-3 Seahawks are also a slim home favorite, giving 3.5 points against the red-hot Niners. This spread would be 3 or 2.5 if not for the fact that Seattle has the best homefield advantage in sports. San Francisco has simply been playing better football than any other team over the past 2 months, and has the best roster from top to bottom. Thus, we have another underdog dominating the Vegas betting, at 74%. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I've got the Niners winning this game 23-16, primarily because the 49ers defense is uniquely qualified to stop the Seahawks rushing attack with elite inside linebackers Bowman and Willis. If they can force Russell Wilson into 3rd and longs, they have the speed on the edges to prevent him from making those improv plays that he routinely makes against other defenses. Seattle lacks the weapons in the passing game to make big plays; they need to lean on the running game, and they won't be able to against San Fran. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Kaepernick, on the other hand, is the ideal QB to face Seattle's nonpareil defense. He can extend plays with his legs, turn the corner and run like vintage Michael Vick, and has the arm to keep the safeties honest. He played most of this season in the pocket, but in the postseason he has emerged as the deadly dual-threat he was last postseason. Perhaps that was Harbaugh coaching him conservatively and keeping him healthy? </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Either way, San Fran has just enough weapons to put up points on Seattle, albeit not a ton of points. I've got the under by half a point (39.5). </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Now that the picks are out of the way, let's talk about Jim Caldwell. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">..... </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">On second thought, no. Let's not. I need a 3 month break from the Lions. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It's almost baseball season! Go Tigers! </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">*Oh, by the way, the answer to the question in the last post was Steven Jackson. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
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David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-593465616523900662014-01-05T23:26:00.001-05:002014-01-07T11:18:54.042-05:00Divisional Round Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Wildcard recap:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">3-1 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">2-1-1 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">1-3 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Total: </span></span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">170-88-1 straight up (65.9%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">135-114-2 against the spread (54.2%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">78-69-4 over/unders (53.0%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Technically, I should be 3-1 ATS, having picked the Niners to win by 3 (which they did), but since they were a 3-point favorite, it goes in the tie column. I did nail two of the final spreads (Colts by 1, Niners by 3), so that counts for something. Nobody saw the Chargers beating Cincy by 17, because nobody saw Cincy only scoring 10 points, after they routinely scored 30+ at home. Andy Dalton chose a terrible time to play one of his worst games. San Diego is the darkhorse nobody wants to play. As for Indy/KC, that was the game of the weekend, far more entertaining than any college football game played this season (maybe </span></span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">ever</i><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">), and catapulted Andrew Luck into the echelon of today's elite QBs, maybe even into third place behind Peyton and Brees. I honestly don't know who has the better QB in the upcoming Colts/Pats game. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Also, I was very impressed by Alex Smith and Nick Foles in losing efforts. (And Rodgers of course). Of the eight QBs who played this weekend, Andy Dalton was the only one who didn't look markedly better than Matthew Stafford looks on a regular basis. (Speaking of the Lions, after a week of scary-bad-coach-rumors, it sounds like Ken Whisenhunt will be the guy. It's no Dungy, but I'll take it!) Now, of the 8 remaining QBs, the <i>worst </i>ones are Kaepernick and Newton. That's a pretty dang impressive cast. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Regarding the Draft, we now have declared confirmation that Bridgewater, Manziel and Clowney are going pro (although everybody already knew they were), as well as UCF's Blake Bortles and USC's Marqise Lee. We also know that UCLA's QB Hundley is staying in school, which takes one potential first-rounder out of the mix for 2014. With the Lions picking 10th, Marqise Lee is definitely in contention, along with top receivers Mike Evans (A&M) and Sammy Watkins (Clemson). A wide receiver makes a ton of sense for Detroit, especially given that there's no elite prospects in the secondary and there's plenty of depth at receiver. Being free from Jim Schwartz's terrible drafting hubris is a wonderful thing. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">On to the Divisional Round picks: </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Saints (12-5) @ Seahawks (13-3)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 6</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SEA by 7.5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I see this as a low-scoring affair, with the Seattle defense coming up with numerous big stops and Russell Wilson playing smart, efficient, and making very few mistakes. Drew Brees can't do it all by himself. Seahawks 20-13. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 48) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Colts (12-5) @ Patriots (12-4)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 5.5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NE by 7.5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Two elite quarterbacks, two shaky run games, two offenses missing their best weapon (Wayne, Gronk). Both teams have injuries all over the place, but the Pats have the overall better roster, particularly on defense. The combo of Talib, Arrington, and McCourtey should effectively be able to eliminate T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener from Luck's disposal, and if the Colts are forced to run, I don't like their chances. Basically, for the Colts to have a chance, Andrew Luck needs to put on another amazing performance, using guys named Griff, LaVon, and Da'Rick. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Pats' offense is banged-up and inconsistent, but the Edelman/Amendola/Vereen trio excels in route-running and quickness, which should allow the Patriots to move the ball on the Colts ineffective secondary, who were just torched by Alex Smith. Indy's best corner, Vontae Davis, is slowed down with a hip injury. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I love Andrew Luck, always have, always will. I think he's the future of the NFL, and will win multiple Super Bowl rings. However, in Foxboro, against Belichick's superior brain, with Tom Brady leading the opposing offense, I don't think the Colts stand a chance. Patriots 27-17. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 53) </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>49ers (13-4) @ Panthers (12-4)<br />Predicted Line: SF by 2.5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SF by 3</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">All the money is on San Fran as a road favorite, in what figures to be a low-scoring, defense-dominated battle in the trenches. Both teams have elite middle linebackers, mobile quarterbacks, and lackluster offensive weapons. Both teams are well-coached, disciplined, and protect the football. Carolina's turnover differential was +11; San Fran's was +12. Excluding Seattle, those were the best marks in the NFC. (Detroit? -12) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Both defenses can get after the passer (Carolina led the NFL with 60 sacks), and both defenses can stuff the run (San Fran, at 3.7 YPC, is 3rd in the NFL), so it makes sense why the total point over/under is set at a minuscule 42. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">A few reasons to take San Fran: superior coach, superior punter (makes a difference in a game like this), superior running back, superior quarterback (I think?), more playoff-tested. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">A few reasons to take Carolina: homefield advantage, elite front-seven on defense, Riverboat Ron. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Ultimately, it just comes down to this being Cam Newton's first playoff game. I don't know if he has the maturity to outlast the disciplined Niners. Kaepernick is 3-1 in the playoffs, and only one of those wins came at home. Niners 26-24. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 42) </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chargers (10-7) @ Broncos (13-3)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 10.5 </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: DEN by 9.5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">San Diego's surge-into-the-playoffs-and-beat-Cincinnati routine was exciting, but this is simply Denver's year. Broncos 38-17. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 54.5) </span></span></span><br />
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<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">*Interesting fact: only one active NFL running back ranks in the top 25 in career rushing yards. It's not Adrian Peterson. See if you can guess; I'll post the answer in the next batch of picks. Try not to cheat. Leave a comment or something. That is, if anyone is reading this.... </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
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David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-4133657921593675882013-12-31T16:19:00.003-05:002014-01-02T22:41:33.064-05:00Wildcard Picks (And results from preseason picks) <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Week 17 recap:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">13-3 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">9-7 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">10-6 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Total Regular Season: </span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">167-87-1 straight up (65.7%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">133-113-1 against the spread (54.1%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">77-66-4 over/unders (53.8%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Overall, a very solid season of picks. Much better than last year (61.5%/50.4%) Nearly tied my ATS record from 2011 (54.3%). With a successful string of playoff picks, I can get to 55%. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">In other news, Gym Shorts was fired on Black Monday, and the Lion Faithful rejoiced. Still a lot to be determined though. Who will coordinate the offense? Who will compose the secondary? What receivers will be added to complement Calvin? What will we do with the #10 pick? And most importantly, who will be the head coach? Assuming the Gruden/Cowher/Dungy group is not interested, I have to think Lovie Smith is at the top of Detroit's list. He knows the NFC North, he is a 4-3 defense guy, and he went to a Superbowl with Rex Grossman. That's my choice. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But knowing the Lions, they'll try their chances with the 'hot coordinator' routine, once again. We have seen how that works out. Marty, Marinelli, Schwartz. None of them were real coaches. Chances are, we'll hire Denver's O-coordinator or Seattle's D-coordinator or something obnoxiously cliche like that. Ugh. Is it Tigers season yet? </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">*EDIT* The damn Bucs just signed Lovie Smith. The Lions are interviewing Jim Caldwell (who went 2-14 a couple years ago in one of the most pathetic coaching displays of all time). I hate the Lions. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Before we get to the Wildcard picks, a quick revisit to my preseason prop bets.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Team over/unders: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Correct: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Atlanta - under 10 wins (Bet $20 at -150 odds, won $13.33)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Cleveland - under 6 wins (Bet $45 at +145 odds, won $65.25) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Detroit - under 8 wins *Shakes head slowly in disbelief* (Bet $25 at even odds, won $25) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Jacksonville - under 5 wins (Bet $35 at -130 odds, won $26.92) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">New England - over 10.5 wins (Bet $45 at +120 odds, won $54) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">New Orleans - over 9 wins (Bet $20 at -150 odds, won $13.33) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Oakland - under 5.5 wins (Bet $30 at -200 odds, won $15) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Incorrect: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Baltimore - over 8.5 wins (Bet $40, lost $40) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Cincinnati - under 8.5 wins (Bet $35, lost $35) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Green Bay - over 10.5 wins (Bet $40, lost $40) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">7 out of 10 is pretty good. If Rodgers stayed healthy I would have been 8 of 10. As it was, I was up by $97.83. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Then there's the team prop bets: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Correct:<br />Atlanta doesn't make the playoffs. (Bet $25 at +135 odds, won $33.75) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Indianapolis does make the playoffs. (Bet $30 at +145 odds, won $43.50)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">New Orleans does make the playoffs. (Bet $30 at -150 odds, won $20)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Oakland doesn't make the playoffs. (Bet $20 at -2000 odds, won $1) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Indy wins the AFC South. (Bet $35 at +240 odds, won $84) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Green Bay wins the NFC North. (Bet $40 at -140 odds, won $28.57)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Incorrect: </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Baltimore makes the playoffs. (Lost $20)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Miami makes the playoffs (Lost $20)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Tampa makes the playoffs (Lost $35)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Washington makes the playoffs (Lost $35)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Baltimore wins the AFC North (Lost $50)<br />New Orleans wins the NFC South (Lost $30)<br />St. Louis wins the NFC West (Lost $15)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Calgary wins the CFL Grey Cup (Lost $10)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">So I won $210.82 and lost $215, for a net loss of $4.18. Not bad I guess. Shouldn't have taken those fliers on Miami and St. Louis, though the payout would have been hefty. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">My player prop bets went 0 for 11, for a total loss of $190, unless Gio Bernard somehow wins Rookie of the Year, which would get me $360. (He was on track until stinkin' Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen came along). I had some decent picks here, especially Jamaal Charles to win the rushing title, but ended up with an 0-fer. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Still a few team prop bets with a chance of paying out. My three Super Bowl bets were New Orleans, New England and Green Bay. Saints would win me $360, Pats would net $250, and Packers $420. I don't think any of them have a good chance, but I figure 3 out of 12 is a decent shot. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Lastly, my player over/unders. I did one per team. Here are the results. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Correct: </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Rashard Mendenhall - under 750 rushing yards (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Osi Umenyiora - under 8.5 sacks (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Greg Hardy - over 8 sacks (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Brandon Marshall - under 102.5 receptions (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Andy Dalton - over 15.5 interceptions (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Wes Welker - under 90.5 receptions (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)<br />Calvin Johnson - over 1,405 receiving yards (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Calvin Johnson - over 10 receiving TDs (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">JJ Watt - under 15.5 sacks (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Andrew Luck - over 250 rushing yards (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)<br />Blaine Gabbert - under 10.5 games started (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)<br />Dwayne Bowe - under 1,000 receiving yards (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Ryan Tannehill - over 14.5 interceptions (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Danny Amendola - under 950 receiving yards </span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Drew Brees - over 4,700 passing yards </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Dee Milliner - over 2.5 interceptions </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Denarius Moore - under 750 receiving yards </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Michael Vick - under 3,200 passing yards </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Ben Roethlisberger - over 12.5 interceptions </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78)</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Marshawn Lynch - over 10 rushing TDs </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Tavon Austin - under 75.5 receptions </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Doug Martin - under 1,200 rushing yards </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Matt Ryan more passing yards than Romo (Bet $30 at +115 odds, won $34.50)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">AJ Green more receiving yards than Andre Johnson (Bet $40 at +105 odds, won $42)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Incorrect: </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Ray Rice - over 1100 rushing yards. (Lost $20)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Steve Johnson - over 6.5 receiving TDs </span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Trent Richardson - over 9.5 rushing TDs </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Tony Romo - over 4,440 passing yards </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Calvin Johnson - over 100.5 receptions (Lost $20) </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Aaron Rodgers - over 38.5 passing TDs </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Adrian Peterson - over 11.5 rushing TDs </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Hakeem Nicks - over 5.5 receiving TDs </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Ryan Matthews - under 900.5 rushing yards </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Colin Kaepernick - under 550 rushing yards *SO CLOSE* </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Jake Locker - over 13.5 interceptions </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Robert Griffin III - over 14.5 games started </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Mike Munchak - first coach fired </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $25) </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Any QB rushes for 1,000 yards </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $35)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Any team goes 0-16 </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Lost $20)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Von Miller more sacks than Clay Matthews (Lost $40)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Ray Rice more rushing yards than CJ Spiller (Lost $30)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">24 correct, 17 incorrect. Pretty good. That makes for </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">a total of $390 lost and a total of $546.03 won, for a net of $156.03. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Add them all together, and because of those stupid player prop bets (0 for 11, lost $190) I'm at a net loss of $20.32. So unless the Pack, Pats or Saints win the Super Bowl, it's another negative season for me. I am starting to realize why Vegas makes money. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Bah. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Here are the Wildcard picks: </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chiefs (11-5) @ Colts (11-5)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 2.5<br />Actual Line: IND by 3 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Chiefs started out 9-0 and then went 2-5 to end the year. Against playoff teams, they went 1-5 this season. Their quarterback is Alex Smith. They have no receivers. Tamba Hali is still out. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Indy, meanwhile, has a lousy defense, no running attack, and hasn't rebounded since losing Reggie Wayne. It's just been Andrew Luck carrying the team on his back while going 6-0 against a pathetic division. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">So what gives? </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The best unit on the field will be the KC defense, and they'll keep the game low-scoring. But in Lucas Oil Stadium, the Chiefs offense will have a tough time getting in the end zone, and we'll see something like a 10-6 game at halftime. I like the points in a low-scoring matchup; let's say Indy 17-16. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 47) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Saints (11-5) @ Eagles (10-6)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 2</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: PHI by 3 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I mean, I've been driving the Nick Foles Bangwagon for over a month, and even I don't understand how Philly should be favored in this game. Philly's defense is <i>horrendous</i> against the pass; the Saints will score at will. Philly will be able to keep pace for a while, but Brees will pull away. Saints 31-24. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 54) </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5)</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: CIN by 6</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CIN by 7 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Not only is Cincy 8-0 at home this season, they are 8-0 <i>against the spread</i>, which is downright incredible. They scored 34 or more in 6 of those 8 home games, and in their last five home games the margins of victory have been: 40, 21, 14, 28, and 17. In other words, San Diego is in trouble. I'm taking the Bengals +7, not because of their offense, but because of their defense. </span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Bengals 27-19. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 47) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<b style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1)</b><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: SF by 3.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SF by 3 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Hard to believe it was just last year's playoffs when Colin Kaepernick <i>ran</i> for 181 yards (and threw for 263 more) to demolish the Packers, all while making the whole thing look completely effortless. The Niners outgained the Pack by 220 yards and dominated every facet of that game. Fast-forward twelve months, and San Fran is even better than they were, and Green Bay is probably worse.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br />A few caveats though: Eddie Lacy changes the complexion of this game, if he can generate any kind of a rushing attack against San Fran's front 7, which, granted, is unlikely. But Green Bay had no running game last year to take the pressure off Rodgers. This time, it's imperative, as Rodgers is still getting used to playing with a broken shoulder. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Secondly, last year's playoff game was in California. This one is in Wisconsin, with a forecast in the single digits. That favors a low-scoring game controlled by running the ball, which clearly favors the Niners. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Ultimately, San Fran has the coaching edge, the personnel edge, and the biggest advantage of all: the fact that Green Bay's defense flat-out sucks. But, the Packers have two things San Fran doesn't: homefield advantage, and Aaron Rodgers. Let's see how that shoulder works. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I have San Fran winning by 3 exactly, 27-24, but for the sake of the ATS pick, I'll say GB-3. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 47) </span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Go Lions! </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
</div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-62785162997207846822013-12-27T16:11:00.002-05:002013-12-29T10:08:37.942-05:00Week 17 Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Week 16 recap: </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">9-7 straight up</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">8-8 against the spread</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">10-6 over/unders</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;" /></span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">Total:</span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;" /></span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">154-84-1 straight up (64.7%)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">124-106-1 against the spread (53.9%)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">67-60-4 over/unders (52.7) </span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 17.671875px;">Here are the week 17 picks: </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Panthers (11-4) @ Falcons (4-11)<br />Predicted Line: CAR by 7</span></b></div>
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Actual Line: CAR by 6 </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Since the Panthers started out 1-3 and I questioned whether Cam Newton had a future in the NFL, they have won 10 of 11, with the only loss in New Orleans. They dominated in 6 of those games and also beat three legit playoff teams along the way. They just might be the team to beat in the NFC. In this extra-meaningful game, they'll keep Atlanta looking hapless. Panthers 27-14. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 46) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (10-5)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 4.5</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: CIN by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Complete desperation for Baltimore; I gotta believe this spread is too high. Bengals 19-17. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 44.5) </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br />Texans (2-13) @ Titans (6-9)<br />Predicted Line: TEN by 5</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Actual Line: TEN by 7.5</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">For the longest time, it looked inevitable that Teddy Bridgewater would be quarterbacking the Jaguars for many years to come. Now, Houston can secure the #1 pick and make sure Bridgewater does indeed play in the AFC South. Incredibly, this will be their 14th straight loss. Titans don't cover the spread though, 21-16. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 44) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Jaguars (4-11) @ Colts (10-5)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 6.5</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: IND by 11 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Whoa there. How are the Colts getting 11 points against anybody? Their defense is pathetic. Indy 28-24. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Over 45.5) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Jets (7-8) @ Dolphins (8-7)<br />Predicted Line: MIA by 4</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: MIA by 6 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Dolphins still have something to play for, but the Jets would love to spoil their season. I like the points in this defensive matchup. Miami 21-16. Bonus prediction: Rex Ryan does NOT get fired. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 41.5)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Speaking of coaches being fired, Black Monday is nearly upon us. The list of coaches absolutely certain to be fired is quite small: Mike Shanahan. But the list of coaches with a better than 50% chance of being fired is extensive: Jim Schwartz, Greg Schiano, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak, whoever coaches Jacksonville and Oakland. Then there are many with a small chance of termination, including Jason Garrett, Tom Coughlin, Doug Marrone, Mike Smith, Rex Ryan, maybe even Mike Tomlin. It should be a Black Monday to remember. Heads will roll. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Lions (7-8) @ Vikings (4-10-1)<br />Predicted Line: DET by 2</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: MIN by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">No AP, Matt Cassel at QB, and a stupid spread. Very tempting. Alright, fine: Lions 27-24 in Schwartz's final game.<br />(Under 51.5) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Assuming Gym Shorts does get fired (which might be giving the Lions' execs too much credit), who are the best fits for his replacement? Someone known for disciplined teams, such as Lovie Smith, Tom Coughlin, Ken Whisenhunt? Or someone known for developing QBs, such as Gruden, Bill O'Brien, etc.? Or, a proven college coach, like Stanford's David Shaw or A&M's Kevin Sumlin? Many, many options out there. Most likely, it'll be a successful NFL coordinator who we've never heard of, not a big name like Lovie or Gruden. We shall see. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Redskins (3-12) @ Giants (6-9)<br />Predicted Line: NYG by 3</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: NYG by 3.5</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Shanahan's final game as a head coach, Kirk Cousins's last chance for a 2014 audition, Eli's fnale to one of the worst quarterbacking seasons ever, and an end of misery for both fan bases. With Cruz out and Cousins playing well, I am taking the Skins in an upset, 26-23. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Over 45) </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">
<b>Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (7-8)<br />Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: PIT by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Steelers need a win, and the Browns have been quietly tanking for a better shot at a top 5 pick. Looks like a blowout. 38-23. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Over 44)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Sidenote: Watch out for the Browns in 2015. With a franchise QB (like Manziel or Hundley) throwing to stud Josh Gordon, and a strong defense that will include whoever they take with Indy's 1st round pick this April, that will be a playoff team. Unless of course their franchise QB is a dud. <br /><br /><b>Packers (7-7-1) @ Bears (8-7)</b><br /><b>Predicted Line: GB by 3</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: GB by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Rodgers is back! Cutler sucks! Packers are in the playoffs with 8 wins. How pathetic is that. Final score: Pack 34-27. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Over 51)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Broncos (12-3) @ Raiders (4-11)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 11.5</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: DEN by 11.5</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Don't know why nobody has talked about this yet, but Peyton Manning is going to break Favre's career TD record sometime in the middle of next season. He needs 21 more. He'll also break the total passing yards record if he plays two more seasons. (Needs about 6,000.) What's truly amazing is that Peyton has 117 fewer interceptions than Favre. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Also important: the Broncos need 17 points to break the '07 Pats record for points scored in a season. They've scored 150 more points that anybody else this season. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Lastly, a Broncos' victory clinches homefield throughout the playoffs. So put that all together, against a dead-duck opponent, and let's say Denver 37-13.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 54) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (11-4)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 9.5<br />Actual Line: NE by 8 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Thad Lewis is starting for the Bills again. New England is gunning for the 2 seed. I'm not overthinking this one. Pats 28-13. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 46.5)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Bucs (4-11) @ Saints (10-5)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 12</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: NO by 12 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">A win clinches the playoffs. Saints won't be messing around. 37-20. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Over 47.5)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>49ers (11-4) @ Cardinals (10-5)<br />Predicted Line: SF by 6</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: SF by 1 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Great defensive matchup. The key: one of these quarterbacks is Carson Palmer. Niners 16-13. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 42) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (8-7)<br />Predicted Line: KC by 3 *Oops* </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: SD by 9 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">The "Nothing to Play for Chiefs" should roll out plenty of backups and treat this like a preseason game. Rivers will pick apart the backup defense, and the Chiefs' offense will do nothing without Charles. Chargers cover with a couple late scores, 31-20. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Over 45) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (12-3)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 12.5</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: SEA by 12.5 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Rams defense is too good for me to take this many points. Plus, Zac Stacy can move the chains. Seahawks 24-17. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 42.5) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Eagles (9-6) @ Cowboys (8-7)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Actual Line: PHI by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">I invented a game called The Romo Game this week. It works like this: you turn on sports radio, look at the clock, and see how many minutes go by until you hear the word "Romo." On average, it's about 30 seconds. Often, it's less than 2 seconds. With all the stories going on right now (Peyton smashing records, Rodgers coming back, 7 marquee quarterbacks going to the playoffs, etc) the only story worthy of The Talking Heads is Romo's injury. Seriously? The real story should be Kyle Orton. Heck, the real story of this game is Nick Foles. 25 TDs and 2 interceptions! That dude is incredible. The only way this game is close is if DeMarco Murray gets 25+ carries. But he won't. Cowboys are too stupid. Philly 31-17.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">(Under 53) </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Go Lions? </span><br />
<br />
<br /></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-44229773803643446852013-12-19T15:27:00.000-05:002013-12-20T19:33:19.038-05:00Week 16 Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Week 15 recap:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">9-7 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">10-5-1 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">6-10 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Total</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">145-77-1 straight up (65.1%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">116-98-1 against the spread (54.2%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">57-54-4 over/unders (51.3%) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">First, the good news. Jim Schwartz is probably done after this season. Barring an unlikely comeback and an even more unlikely playoff victory, Schwartz will be shown the door, along with Linehan and Cunningham. This could be tremendous: the new coach would likely be offensive-minded and could help Stafford develop his poor mechanics and bad decision making and actually turn that guy into a winner. Maybe. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Now, the bad news. The Lions have lost 4 of 5, and let the NFC North slip through their fingers, despite the fact that Aaron Rodgers hasn't played in two months and those loses were all against teams we should have beat. I could go on and on and on but frankly I'm tired of the Lions. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Here are my week 16 picks:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Dolphins (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: MIA by 3</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: MIA by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Miami has something to play for and they're playing well right now. Dolphins 26-17. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 43.5)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Giants (5-9) @ Lions (7-7)<br />Predicted Line: DET by 6.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: DET by 9 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">No way the Lions can be favored by 9 with Schwartz's job hanging by a thread and Stafford playing like a complete fool and the secondary (which sucked in the first place) depleted. I'm almost tempted to take the Giants straight-up, but they've completely quit on the year and Eli is giving games away and Cruz is out. Lions 27-20. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 49)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Saints (10-4) @ Panthers (10-4)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 2.5<br />Actual Line: CAR by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Don't get this line. I haven't quite bought into Cam Newton as the equal counterpart to Drew Brees. The Carolina D is good, but not this good. Saints 24-22. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 47) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Vikings (4-9) @ Bengals (9-5)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 9</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CIN by 8 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">With AP questionable and leaning toward doubtful, I see no reason to believe the Vikes can score more than 17 points. I like Cincy's chances; 13-24. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 48) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (11-3)<br />Predicted Line: KC by 6.5<br />Actual Line: KC by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Colts have alternated wins and losses since their big win against Denver in October, and all their tough road games have resulted in blowout losses. I'm thinking that trend continues as KC rolls, 28-17. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 45.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bucs (4-10) @ Rams (6-8)<br />Predicted Line: STL by 4.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: STL by 5 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Taking the points; Kellen Clemens shouldn't be trusted to cover 5 points. Rams 24-20. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 43) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Browns (4-10) @ Jets (6-8)<br />Predicted Line: NYJ by 1</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NYJ by 2 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Neither team can run the ball, both QBs are bad, and they've lost 9 of their last 10 games between the two of them. Cleveland has been more competitive and has the slightly better QB and the better defense, but the Jets play for the pride and the Browns are probably thinking more about the offseason. Who knows. I'll say Cleveland 20-19. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 40.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Cowboys (7-7) @ Redskins (3-11)<br />Predicted Line: DAL by 7</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: DAL by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Hey I like Kirk Cousins as much as anybody, but Dallas has something to play for and a much better team. The easy pick here is the over (set at 54) - I think the Cowboys can win by more than a field goal. Let's go Dallas 34-30. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 54) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Titans (5-9) @ Jags (4-10)<br />Predicted Line: TEN by 1.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: TEN by 5 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'll take the points with the homedog, I guess. Titans 26-24. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 47) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Broncos (11-3) @ Texans (2-12)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 13.5<br />Actual Line: DEN by 10 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Kudos to whatever genius put big money on Denver to win this game back in August when the spread was HOU by 3. Denver needs to pummel them to clinch homefield, and pummel them they will. Broncos 40-16. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 53) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Cardinals (9-5) @ Seahawks (12-2)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 10.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SEA by 10.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This puts an end to the Cardinals' commendable Wildcard run. Seahawks win but don't cover, 31-24. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 43.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Steelers (6-8) @ Packers (7-6-1)<br />Predicted Line: PIT by 3<br />Actual Line: PIT by ? </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">No spread yet, but with Rodgers definitely out, I'll set the spread at PIT by 2.5 and say the Pack win straight-up, even with Matt Flynn at the helm. Pittsburgh simply stinks on the road, and the Pack have urgency. If they win, then Rodgers suits up next week to beat the Bears and carry the Pack into the playoffs with only 9 wins. The Steelers have no urgency, only uncertainty and inconsistency. Pack 21-18. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under ?) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Raiders (4-10) @ Chargers (7-7)<br />Predicted Line: SD by 7.5<br />Actual Line: SD by 10 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">That's too many points for me to feel comfortable with. Chargers 27-23. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 50.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Patriots (10-4) @ Ravens (8-6)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 3<br />Actual Line: BAL by 2 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">If you look at the Pats game by game, and the endless lucky breaks they've had, you can see that from a talent-perspective, this could easily be a 3-11 team. Brady has basically morphed into a hyper-competitive version of Ben Roethlisberger this year; dreadful for 3.5 quarters, deadly in the 2-minute drill. Mix in a ridiculous amount of luck, and you have a first-round playoff bye. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The difference between perennially making the playoffs and perennially missing the playoffs might just be having an ultra-competitive QB who wants to win more than anybody else. Thus, I </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">just explained the Stafford Era in one simple sentence. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">My guess is the Pats just keep on figuring out ways to win. Baltimore's offense is anemic. New England by a score of 27-26. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 45) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bears (8-6) @ Eagles (8-6)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 3<br />Actual Line: PHI by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I need to find a Nick Foles Recovery Support group before it's too late. Eagles 43-31. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 56) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Falcons (4-10) @ 49ers (10-4) </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: SF by 11.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SF by 13 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Kaepernick is starting to play his best football of the season, and the Niners probably want their final home game of the year to be memorable, so what the heck, I'll lay those 13 points. San Fran 36-17. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 45.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Go Lions!! ...and Steelers and Eagles! </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-75895963488871628352013-12-09T16:15:00.004-05:002013-12-15T07:05:56.591-05:00Week 15 Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Week 14 recap:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">11-5 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">11-5 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">8-7 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Total</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">136-70-1 straight up (66.2%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">106-93-8 against the spread (53.4%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">51-44-4 over/unders (54.1%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Too depressed to talk about the stupid Lions. Unbelievable. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The rest of the week was highly entertaining. Crazy finishes, tons of playoff positioning (21 teams still alive with just three weeks left - that's incredible) and Draft positioning on the other side of the spectrum, as four playoffs teams from 2012 (Houston, Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington) appear to be the likely top 4 picks. Tampa and Jacksonville are determined to miss out on the franchise QBs. Cleveland, Buffalo and Oakland are falling fast into the bottom 8. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">As Case Keenum has fallen apart, Houston appears the likely landing spot for Teddy Bridgewater, which means he and Luck would be in the same division for about a decade, which would be fantastic. Clowney is likely heading to Atlanta with the #2 or #3 pick, and that leaves Manziel, Carr and Hundley (and maybe Boyd?) as the franchise QBs to be split between Cleveland, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, St. Louis, and maybe the Jets, Titans and Bucs. That's a lot of teams vying for just a few quarterbacks in April. It'll be interesting. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But the playoffs are the more important matter, and a few teams made huge strides on Sunday. New England and Cincy essentially clinched their divisions (Patriots got insanely lucky once again), while the Colts won the AFC South by losing. They've now been outscored by a total of 3 points on the season, and yet lead their division by three games. None of these teams should be considered viable contenders in the AFC; Cincy and Indy have suspect defenses, especially Indy, and the Pats just lost Gronk for good. They'll revert back to the lifeless offense they were early in the season. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">So that leaves three legit contenders in the AFC: Denver (the obvious favorite), KC (built-for-the-playoffs), and a Wildcard team to be decided amongst no less than six squads. Baltimore and Miami have slim leads, but not safe leads. Of the many Wildcard contenders, the ones with a chance of actually winning a game or two are the Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But at this point, it's about 3:1 odds that Denver makes the Super Bowl. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br />The NFC is much more precarious. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Seattle and the Saints are in, but neither has a first-round bye locked up. Both teams are strong contenders to win the NFC, for obvious reasons. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">San Fran, Carolina, and Arizona are fighting for the two Wildcards. The Niners and Panthers have the edge and are both very legit Super Bowl contenders as well. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The other two playoff teams will be decided over the next three weeks. Detroit is doing everything they can to lose the NFC North, even as Cutler and Rodgers haven't played in a month. Philly and Dallas are going to go down to the wire with a week 17 matchup that likely determines the division champ. Aaron Rodgers is set to return, which means the entire NFC should be afraid, not just the Lions. And then there's the Bears, who aren't out of it at all. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Of these teams, the only one with no chance at the Super Bowl is Chicago. Their defense is too horrible. But Green Bay, Detroit, Dallas, and Philly all should be taken seriously. Especially if Rodgers is 100%. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Basically, we have an 8-team melee in the NFC all battling for the chance to play Denver in the Super Bowl. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">With that in mind, here are the Week 15 picks: </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chargers (6-7) @ Broncos (11-2)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 9.5<br />Actual Line: DEN by 10.5 </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Unfortunately for the Bolts, their playoff hopes end here. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Denver 41-34. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">( Over 54)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Redskins (3-10) @ Falcons (3-10)<br />Predicted Line: ATL by 4<br />Actual Line: ATL by 6 </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Pretty sure Jadeveon Clowney will be watching this game. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Atlanta 17-16. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 51) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>49ers (9-4) @ Bucs (4-9)<br />Predicted Line: SF by 5.5<br />Actual Line: SF by 5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Best coach in the NFL vs. worst coach in the NFL. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Niners 30-10. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 41.5) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Seahawks (11-2) @ Giants (5-8)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 6</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SEA by 7 </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Thanks in advance to Seattle for demoralizing the Giants right before they head to Detroit. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Hawks 27-10. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 41.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bears (7-6) @ Browns (4-9)<br />Predicted Line: CHI by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CHI by 3 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">With 774 receiving yards in his last four games, Josh Gordon just broke the record for most receiving yards in a four-game span. That record was set less than one month ago, by ... you guessed it, Calvin Johnson. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Some say Gordon's achievement is even more impressive, because his QBs are so subpar. I agree with that. Some are even arguing that Gordon, not Calvin, is currently the best WR in the league. Hold on a second. Aside from the brutally obvious factors, consider that Gordon is a second-year player who has already been suspended 4 games for violating the league's drug policy and been ensnared in ugly trade-rumors and coach-drama. Let's give him a few years to grow up before we anoint his head with oil. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Bears 24-13.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 45) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Texans (2-11) @ Colts (8-5)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 9</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: IND by 6 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Case Keenum and Wade Phillips now have a three-week audition to keep their jobs in 2014. They have much more to play for than the Colts, who are backing into the playoffs in despicable fashion. I am going on a limb and taking the Texans 26-23. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 45.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Patriots (10-3) @ Dolphins (7-6)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 3.5<br />Actual Line: NE by 3 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I haven't trusted the Patriots all season, especially since the injuries to Wilfork and Mayo, and they keep lucking into ridiculous wins. Miami is the better team, and the homedog. Dolphins 26-22. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 45.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Eagles (8-5) @ Vikings (3-9-1)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: PHI by 5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Lots of garbage yards and points for Cordarrelle Patterson and Toby Gerhard, but Philly has too much firepower. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Eagles 41-27. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 51) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bills (4-9) @ Jags (4-9)<br />Predicted Line: Pick Em </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: BUF by 2 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Bills 17-16. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 43) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chiefs (10-3) @ Raiders (4-9)<br />Predicted Line: KC by 7<br />Actual Line: KC by 4.5 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Not overthinking it. Chiefs 26-14. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 41)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Jets (6-7) @ Panthers (9-4)<br />Predicted Line: CAR by 9.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CAR by 11 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Panthers 30-13. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 40.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Packers (6-6-1) @ Cowboys (7-6)<br />Predicted Line: DAL by 8.5<br />Actual Line: DAL by 7 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Rodgers not playing. Cowboys have struggled to blow anybody out because of their defense. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Dallas 31-27. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 49) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Cardinals (8-5) @ Titans (5-8)<br />Predicted Line: ARZ by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: ARZ by 3 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Cardinals have been really bad on the road. I'll take the Titans 17-14. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 41.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Saints (10-3) @ Rams (5-8)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 8</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NO by 6 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This is our ninth road favorite, and fifth that's favored by more than a field goal. I've taken all those big road favorites except the Pats. This seems to be the time of year for blowouts. Saints 31-16. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 47) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bengals (9-4) @ Steelers (5-8)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 2.5<br />Actual Line: CIN by 3 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Rumors are starting to float about firing Mike Tomlin. I don't think the Rooneys are that stupid, but if they are, I hope the Lions snatch him up in about 30 seconds. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Steelers 27-24. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 40.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Ravens (7-6) @ Lions (7-6)<br />Predicted Line: DET by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: DET by 6 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I don't even feel remotely good about the Lions winning this game, so I'd be idiotic to take them -6. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Let's say Lions 23-20 in OT. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 48) </span><br />
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David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-37486329756521109732013-12-05T18:34:00.001-05:002013-12-07T21:28:36.647-05:00Week 14 Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Week 13 recap:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">8-8 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">5-11 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">9-7 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Total</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">125-65-1 straight up (65.7%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">95-88-8 against the spread (51.9%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">43-37-4 over/unders (53.7%)</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This was my worst week in a long time. The primary reason was a pathetic 2-7 ATS in the games with a spread of 5 points of fewer. All those stupid 1-point spreads really killed me. Also the overtime games all went against me, which is just bad luck. And what's up with the historically awful Jaguars winning 3 out of 4? </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">On the plus side, Detroit won by 30, Chicago lost, and the NFC North crown is within reach. AND, I made the fantasy playoffs in two of the three leagues, thanks to some strange tiebreakers. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Here are the week 14 picks: </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Texans (2-10) @ Jaguars (3-9)<br />Predicted Line: HOU by 2.5<br />Actual Line: HOU by 3 </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">After three long years of drafting Ben Tate, waiting for his big game, predicting his big game, starting him and routinely getting 1 or 2 points, I finally benched him (for Jordy Nelson in the flex, who had a marvelous 14 yards), and he exploded for 28 fantasy points. It made me realize why I hate fantasy football. Now he goes against the worst team in the league, just in time for the fantasy playoffs, and I don't know if I can count on him for any more than 30 yards. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This game is intriguing, because the best thing for both teams would be to lose. This is essentially the Teddy Bridgewater Bowl. With the news that Marcus Mariota is returning to Oregon next year, Bridgewater is the guaranteed #1 pick and will very likely be the franchise quarterback for whoever loses this game. Three weeks ago, Jacksonville had Bridgewater all but secured, and then stupidly went on a winning streak and as a result could be without a franchise QB for another five years. They can undo a lot of that damage by losing this game. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But Houston seems more dedicated to tanking than anybody else. They lost back-to-back home games in which they were 10+ point favorites. Kubiak and Schaub are sitting ducks, already auditioning for new jobs next year. The Jags actually want to keep their coach, so they might keep trying. But then again, Case Keenum wants to keep Bridgewater from taking his job, so he'll be trying too. I guess I'll take Jacksonville +3, but say Houston wins on a late field goal, 20-19. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 43) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Lions (7-5) @ Eagles (7-5)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 2.5<br />Actual Line: PHI by 2.5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Two great offenses. Two bad defenses. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But looking at the rosters closely, it's apparent that Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball. While Nick Foles has been unfathomably good (19 TDs, 0 picks), and LeSean McCoy has a sparkling 4.7 YPC, and DeSean Jackson is the type of speedster who usually kills the Lions ... I still see Detroit as having the better offense, with Calvin, Bush/Bell, and Stafford playing the most consistently he's played in his career. While the Lions are basically getting nothing from duds like Burleson/Broyles/Durham/Pettigrew/Fauria, they may have found a playmaker in Jeremy Ross, who obviously should have been playing since day 1. That dude was only on the field for three offensive snaps against Green Bay and all he did was a 24-yard run and a 5 yard TD catch. Also, he's the best return man Detroit has had since Eddie Drummond. RIP Michael Spurlock. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But more importantly, Detroit's defense is far superior to Philadelphia's. While the Lions' struggles in the secondary are notorious, it's the Eagles who rank 32nd against the pass, with absolutely nobody who has a chance to guard Calvin Johnson. [It should be said that Philly's defense allows more yards than anybody else because they allow more plays than anybody else, because they run every offensive snap out of the no-huddle and create as many possessions for both teams as possible. They are basically the NFL version of the old 7-seconds-or-less Phoenix Suns. And remember, those Suns teams had HORRIBLE defenses.] </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Philly's style plays right into Detroit's hands. Stafford cherishes the chance to throw 60 times, Calvin might have 20 receptions, and Bush and Bell will combine for another 250 all-purpose yards. If Philly wants an offensive slugfest, Detroit can match them point for point. And the key is that the Lions D, with Suh and Levy playing like All Pros, can get some stops. The pass rush is finally coming together, the run defense is stout (3rd best in the NFL right now), and this will allow the secondary to play dime on lots of 3rd and longs, which hopefully, <i>hopefully</i>, means we can force Foles to throw his first interceptions of the season. Sure, the Eagles will put up 30+ points, DeSean and LeSean will both go over 100 yards easily, and some shmuck like Riley Cooper will catch a 65 yard TD, but the bottom line is I think Detroit can outscore Philly and beat them at their own game. We have the better QB (barely), the better defense (by a good margin), and most importantly, we have the unstoppable Megatron. That should outweigh the advantages Philly has with coaching and homefield. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I like the Lions to win 41-38. <br />(Over 54.5) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">*EDIT: It's going to be 30 degrees and snowy. Yikes. Let's make it Lions 27-24 and take the under. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chiefs (9-3) @ Redskins (3-9)<br />Predicted Line: KC by 5.5<br />Actual Line: KC by 3.5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Washington is in the mix for a top 3 pick, but I don't see them tanking. Not with all the crap RG3 and Shanahan have already taken this year. I'll take that half-point with the homedog. Chiefs by 3. 31-28. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 45) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Vikings (3-8-1) @ Ravens (6-6)<br />Predicted Line: BAL by 5<br />Actual Line: BAL by 7</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">In their last seven games, Baltimore has scored the following numbers of points (not in order): </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 20, 22. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">That's insane. It also means this spread is too high, because Minnesota isn't likely to score 13 or fewer points. Not with Adrian Peterson. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">On the flip side, Minnesota needs to lose the rest of their games if they want a chance at the #1 pick. And Baltimore is playing for the playoffs. Still, I think the spread is too high. Ravens 23-17. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 43) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Browns (4-8) @ Patriots (9-3)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 7.5<br />Actual Line: NE by 10.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Browns won't be able to score many points as Talib shuts down Josh Gordon, but I think they'll score enough to cover. Let's say Patriots 26-17. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 45) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Raiders (5-7) @ Jets (5-7)<br />Predicted Line: NYJ by 3.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NYJ by 2.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">80% of Vegas is supporting Matt McGloin on the road? Really??? I mean, you've got Rex Ryan's job on the line (again), you've got Oakland on the East Coast at 1pm, and all the Jets need to do is win by 3? What am I missing? (Oh ... the fact that Geno Smith has put together <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/15864/geno-smith">one of the worst five-game stretches of quarterbacking in NFL history</a>. Now I rememeber.) Still, I can't trust McGloin on the road. Jets 16-6. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 40.5)</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Just for kicks, let's look at Geno's numbers over the past five games: </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">49 completions on 104 attempts (47%) for 533 yards, 0 TDs, 8 picks, and 34 rushing yards. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Per game, that equates to: </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">9 for 21 for 106 yards, 0 TDs and 1.6 picks, with 7 rushing yards. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I wonder if Jets fans miss Mark Sanchez yet? </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Colts (8-4) @ Bengals (8-4)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 2.5<br />Actual Line: CIN by 6</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I know Andrew Luck is going to break out of this funk eventually. Even though all common sense says to take Cincy and lay the points, I'm believing Luck can at least keep this one close. Bengals 24-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 43) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Dolphins (6-6) @ Steelers (5-7)<br />Predicted Line: PIT by 4</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: PIT by 3</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Just realized I've picked 6 underdogs and 1 favorite so far. Good thing I was leaning toward the Steelers already. Pittsburgh 27-23. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 41) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Falcons (3-9) @ Packers (5-6-1)<br />Predicted Line: GB by 1<br />Actual Line: ? </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Aaron Rodgers is practicing with pads, but sharing first-team snaps with Flynn and Tolzien. There's no line at this point. If Rodgers plays, the line should inflate to GB by 10 or 12, and in that case I'll take Atlanta to cover due to Rogers' likely rustiness. If Rodgers doesn't play, Green Bay will be a small favorite, and I'll take the Pack. I'm not thinking Matt Ryan will be very successful in the freezing snow in a game that's meaningless for him. Stay tuned. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bills (4-8) @ Bucs (3-9)<br />Predicted Line: TB by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: TB by 2.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This may be the most meaningless game of the entire season so far. The Bills have the better team, but they stink on the road. Guess I'll take Tampa by 3. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 43) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Titans (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 14.5<br />Actual Line: DEN by 13 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I know I should take the points because of bad weather and the possibility of a backdoor cover. But I just can't see the Titans staying in this game. Denver 34-17. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 49) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Rams (5-7) @ Cardinals (7-5)<br />Predicted Line: ARZ by 6</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: ARZ by 6 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Cards 20-13. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 42) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Giants (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: SD by 5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SD by 3.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Bolts 24-17. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 47.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Seahawks (11-1) @ 49ers (8-4)<br />Predicted Line: SF by 2.5<br />Actual Line: SF by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Seattle 20-16. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 41.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Panthers (9-3) @ Saints (9-3)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 4.5<br />Actual Line: NO by 3.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Saints 34-27. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 46.5)<br /><br /><b>Cowboys (7-5) @ Bears (6-6)<br />Predicted Line: CHI by 1</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: DAL by 1 </b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Cowboys 26-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 48) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Go Lions!! </span></span></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-9826971033699140722013-11-26T14:29:00.003-05:002013-11-27T06:06:39.357-05:00Week 13 Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Week 12 recap:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">7-5-1 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">6-7 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">4-9 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Total</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">117-57-1 straight up (67.2%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">90-77-8 against the spread (53.8%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">34-30-4 over/unders (53.1%)</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Not a good week in the slightest, as I made lousy picks, lost two meaningful fantasy games, and the Lions squandered a fourth quarter lead and lost at home to a team that was 0-8 a few weeks ago. Let's blame it on being in India and move on to week 13. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Thanksgiving Games: </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Packers (5-5-1) @ Lions (6-5)</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: DET by 4.5<br />Actual Line: DET by 6 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It's not announced yet whether Scott Tolzien or Matt Flynn will be the starter for Green Bay, but Aaron Rodgers was officially ruled out. I think I speak for the entire state of Michigan when I say I'd like to see some significant revenge against Matt Flynn, however: Tolzien being named the starter would be better for Detroit. That guy is a joke; Flynn was competent against Minnesota. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But the Lions proved against Tampa that they can't be relied on as more than a 2 point favorite against anybody. So let's take the points and hope the Lions don't screw this up. Detroit 34-31. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 49.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Raiders (4-7) @ Cowboys (6-5)<br />Predicted Line: DAL by 8<br />Actual Line: DAL by 10 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Like Detroit, the Cowboys can't be trusted to cover a large spread. This is a defense that allowed 40 first downs a month ago. But they will get the win. Cowboys 26-20. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 46.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Steelers (5-6) @ Ravens (5-6)<br />Predicted Line: BAL by 2.5<br />Actual Line: BAL by 3 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Both these teams have overcome terrible starts to now be in Wildcard contention. The winner of this game will be the frontrunner for the second Wildcard spot and have a chance to take down Cincinnati. I always like the points in this rivalry, and Pittsburgh is playing better right now. So I'm </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">taking the upset - Steelers 24-18. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 40)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Sunday Games: </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Titans (5-6) @ Colts (7-4)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 4<br />Actual Line: IND by 4</b><br /><br />As the "What's Wrong with Andrew Luck?" headlines emerge, it's a good time to take advantage of this small spread. Indy won by 3 in Nashville two weeks ago; they should do better at home. I'll say Colts 31-17. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 44.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Jaguars (2-9) @ Browns (4-7)<br />Predicted Line: CLE by 5<br />Actual Line: CLE by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Well, the 2014 Draft has overgone a complete makeover from where it was 2 weeks ago. The Jags and Bucs have both climbed out of 0-8 holes and now aren't even in last place in their divisions; Atlanta and Houston (both 2-9) currently stand to pick 1st and 2nd in April. Then there's the 2-8-1 Vikings, the 3-8 Redskins, and a host of 4-7 teams, including the Browns and Raiders. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Of those teams, only one definitely has their franchise quarterback. That's Atlanta. Houston and Tampa have seen enough from Keenum and Glennon that they'll at least be given a chance to compete for the job next year; Minnesota and Jacksonville are almost certain to take quarterbacks in the 1st round. Then there's Cleveland, who announced via the Trent Richardson trade that they won't be losing out on a franchise QB like they did in the RG3 sweepstakes; they'll be packaging their 1st round pick (in the 6-10 range) with the Colts 1st round pick (in the 20s) and likely a 2015 1st rounder to move up and take a QB in the top 3. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville) is still the consensus #1 pick, with Johnny Football, Tahj Boyd (Clemson), Brett Hundley (UCLA), and David Carr's Brother (Fresno St) all possible 1st rounders. The Jags, Vikings and Browns are the most likely teams to come away with one of these franchise QBs, but anything could happen in the top 5. A team like Atlanta that doesn't need a QB might come away with freak of nature Jadaveon Clowney with the 3rd or 4th pick, which would be a steal. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Anyway, there's still a lot of time before April to see how the standings shake out. In this game, I like the points. Browns 24-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 40.5)</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bucs (3-8) @ Panthers (8-3)<br />Predicted Line: CAR by 6.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CAR by 9 </b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">That's seven wins in a row for Carolina, since they were 1-3 and I said "Watch out, their schedule is about to get easy." They'll keep rolling here. Panthers 30-16.<br />(Over 41.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bears (6-5) @ Vikings (2-8-1)<br />Predicted Line: CHI by 2.5<br />Actual Line: MIN by 1 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'm not thinking the Vikings actually have any chance of winning. The Lions don't have that much luck. Bears 19-13. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 49) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Cardinals (7-4) @ Eagles (6-5)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: PHI by 3.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It's shocking how much I love Nick Foles. Eagles 27-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 49)</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Dolphins (5-6) @ Jets (5-6)<br />Predicted Line: NYJ by 2<br />Actual Line: NYJ by 1</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Yawn. Jets by 3 I guess. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 38.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Patriots (8-3) @ Texans (2-9)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 6.5<br />Actual Line: NE by 9 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">So last week I started three Texans (Keenum, Tate, Andre) against the Jags, thinking they'd easily combine for 30 points, maybe 50. Instead they combined for 9 damn points. Ben Tate is dead to me. So are the Texans, who are flagrantly tanking at this point. Patriots 63-10. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over whatever the number is) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Falcons (2-9) @ Bills (4-7) in Toronto<br />Predicted Line: BUF by 3.5<br />Actual Line: BUF by 3.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Speaking of tanking .... we're about two quarters away from the inevitable Fake Matt Ryan Injury. Bills by 6.<br />(Under 46) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Rams (5-6) @ 49ers (7-4)<br />Predicted Line: SF by 7</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SF by 8.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Too many points for such a good Rams defense. Niners 20-17. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 42) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">By the way, the Lions' chances of winning a Wildcard are looking extremely slim right now, as the Niners, Panthers and Cardinals are three of the hottest teams in the NFC. Fortunately, thanks to the sweeping of the Bears, we can go 3-2 in the next five games and still likely win the division, as long as one of those wins is Thanksgiving. Unless Rodgers returns next week and reels off 4 straight wins, which is absolutely possible. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Broncos (9-2) @ Chiefs (9-2)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 2.5<br />Actual Line: DEN by 5 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Something tells me KC just might get the win. So I will hesitantly take the points - Denver 27-24. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 49) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bengals (7-4) @ Chargers (5-6)</b><br /><b>Predicted Line: SD by 4.5</b><br /><b>Actual Line: SD by 1.5</b><br /><br />I was going to take the points, but since we aren't getting any points, I'll take the home team. Bolts 23-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 48.5)<br /></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Giants (4-7) @ Redskins (3-8)<br />Predicted Line: WAS by 2</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NYG by 1 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">So much for the Giants making the playoffs. I'm gonna take the home team again I suppose. Skins 26-23. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 45.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Saints (9-2) @ Seahawks (10-1)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 3<br />Actual Line: SEA by 6 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Rematch of the infamous 2011 playoff game where 7-9 Seattle beat 11-5 New Orleans at HOME in one of the dumbest postseason games of all time. I definitely want the 6 points with Drew Brees. In fact, Saints 33-27. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 47) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Go Lions!! </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-66676520637656331842013-11-20T02:20:00.004-05:002013-11-20T05:40:20.280-05:00Week 12 picks<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Week 11 results<br />
<br />
8-5-2 against the spread<br />
11-4 straight up<br />
8-6-1 over/unders<br />
<br />
Total<br />
<br />
110-52 straight up (67.9%)<br />
84-70-8 against the spread (54.5%)<br />
30-21-4 over/unders (58.8%)<br />
<br />
Here are the week 12 picks, live from India!<br />
<br />
Saints @ Falcons<br />
Line: NO by 7.5<br />
Pick: saints 34-13. Brees in a blowout, with the falcons tanking.<br />
(under 53)
<br />
<br />
Bucs @ lions<br />
Line: DET by 9<br />
Pick: lions 33-27. Backdoor cover.<br />
(over 48.5)<br />
<br />
Jags @ texans<br />
Line: HOU by 10<br />
Pick: texans 38-23. Case Keenum is unstoppable!<br />
(over 43)<br />
<br />
Vikings @ packers<br />
Line: GB by 3.5<br />
Pick: vikes 16-13. Just say no to scott tolzien.<br />
(under 44.5)<br />
<br />
Chargers @ chiefs<br />
Line: KC by 5<br />
Pick: bolts 31-23. Afc west curveball.<br />
(over 41.5)<br />
<br />
Panthers @ dolphins<br />
Line: CAR by 3.5<br />
Pick: Carolina 27-26. Six in a row.<br />
(over 41)<br />
<br />
Steelers @ browns<br />
Line: CLE by 2<br />
Pick: Pitt 26-16. Who cares.<br />
(over 41)<br />
<br />
Bears @ rams<br />
Line: STL by 1<br />
Pick: rams 18-16. Too much Rams defense.<br />
(under 45.5)<br />
<br />
Jets @ ravens<br />
Line: BAL by 4<br />
Pick: ravens 23-20. rex ryan + ed reed = extra obnoxious.<br />
(over 40)<br />
<br />
Titans @ raiders<br />
Line: OAK by 1.5<br />
Pick: Titans 19-16. In a game between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt McGloin, nobody wins.<br />
(under 41.5)<br />
<br />
colts @ cardinals<br />
line: ARZ by 2.5<br />
pick: colts 31-29. another luck comeback. <br />
(over 45)<br />
<br />
cowboys @ giants<br />
line: NYG by 2.5<br />
pick: giants 27-24. the embarrassing climb from 0-6 to the playoffs continues.<br />
(over 47)<br />
<br />
broncos @ patriots<br />
line: DEN by 2.5<br />
pick: broncos 47-27. peyton>brady<br />
(over 56)<br />
<br />
GO LIONS<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-4440349281544320592013-11-13T17:09:00.001-05:002013-11-14T21:17:15.934-05:00Week 11 Picks<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Week ten recap:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">9-5 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">8-5-1 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">7-5-2 over/unders</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Overall:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">99-48 straight up (67.3%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">76-65-6 against the spread (53.9%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">22-15-3 over/unders (59%) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It was a good week to pick underdogs. My picks were 10 to 3 in favor of underdogs, and underdogs indeed went 8-4-1 against the spread, including 7 straight up victories. None was more shocking than the Rams annihilation of the playoff-bound Colts, although the Jags and Bucs getting their first victories of the season was also noteworthy. Now the 2-win teams (Atlanta, Houston, Minnesota) are only a game away from the #1 overall pick, which will equate to either a franchise QB, a once-in-a-decade pass rusher, or a bevy of future first round picks. In other words, get ready for some poorly-disguised tanking. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Perhaps no team had a better week 10 than the Lions, who swept the Bears, took sole control of the division, saw Seneca Wallace get hurt (who the hell is <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14353/scott-tolzien">Scott Tolzien</a>??), and exposed how truly terrible the Bears defense is. Forget the Wildcard. Detroit is now playing for a division title and maybe a homefield playoff game. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">And that's particularly lucky because the Wildcard is not going to be easy. Carolina has won 5 straight, Arizona is 5-4 and might have the best defense in the NFC, and of course San Francisco will be in the mix. Detroit's upcoming schedule -- @Pittsburgh, vs. Tampa, vs. Rodgers-less Packers, @Philly, vs. Baltimore, vs. Giants, and @Vikings -- is extremely favorable, as six of those seven teams have terrible defenses, and none of them have a top-ten quarterback. In fact, the only quarterback I'm slightly afraid of on that docket is Nick Foles (AKA my fantasy savior). </span></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Speaking of fantasy darling QBs, I've seen enough from both Foles and Case Keenum to say they fully deserve a shot to be their team's starting QB next season. Keenum looks eerily like a 2006 Romo (that's a compliment, by the way) and Foles - who doesn't really fit the Chip Kelly offense - looks like he has an elite arm and rare pocket poise. It'll be interesting, as the 2014 draft is loaded with read-option QBs. The last thing Philly needs is to keep Foles, draft a QB, and then have a controversy all year long. What they should do is invest in the defense, let Foles play 2014 like he's the man, and if he fails, get a QB in 2015. Marcus Mariota - the Oregon phenom sophomore - will likely stay in college for one more season and then be the top pick in 2015. Just saying. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The biggest bummer of the week was Jake Locker - who I started with confidence in two of my three leagues - breaking his foot early in the game against Jacksonville. He's lost for the year and his future with the Titans is in limbo. Their playoff hopes (along with the Raiders, Bills, and Chargers) are also morose at best. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'm making two bold and fairly stupid predictions right now. Both the Ravens and the Giants will make the postseason. The Giants - who started 0-6 and were blown out in four of those games - are now 3-6, soon to be 4-6, with three remaining games within the division. They'll win the East at 8-8 on a tiebreaker. The Ravens, who were looking dead in the water at 3-5, are about to go on a 5-game winning streak, and will ultimately win the AFC North in a winner-take-all matchup against Cincinnati week 17. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">And of course, 9-0 Kansas City plays 8-1 Denver this week, and then against two weeks later. We'll get to that shortly. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br />Here are the week 11 picks. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Colts (6-3) @ Titans (4-5)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 6</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: IND by 3</b> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Getting some line value here, thanks to the Colts' massive loss against St. Louis. But in a battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andrew Luck, this line seems kind of silly, right? Especially considering that Chris Johnson has reverted back to 2.5 YPC. Indy's defense is bad, but Tennessee's offense under Fitzpatrick is just as bad. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Let's not overreact to the Rams-Colts game. That was basically just four huge plays - a fumble, a punt return, two long passes - that went in favor of the Rams. The Colts had more yards and more first downs by a considerable number. The Rams do have an excellent defense, but the Colts aren't nearly as bad as they looked on Sunday. I think it's a good bargain to take the favorites here since the line is so low. It'll probably be Indy by 4.5 by gameday. Indy 27-20. By the way, what happened to Trent Richardson? Is he still alive? <br />(Over 43) </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Lions (6-3) @ Steelers (3-6)<br />Predicted Line: DET by 3<br />Actual Line: DET by 3 </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Isn't it amazing how much better the Lions are than the mighty Pittsburgh Steelers? We have the better passing game, the better running game, the better quarterback, the better offensive line, and I daresay, even the better defense. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Now on the flipside, Pittsburgh has a far superior coach and a great homefield advantage, so by no means is this a gimme. Our cornerbacks were completely hapless against Marshall and Jeffrey, so I'd similarly expect solid games from Antonio Brown and Sanders/Cotchery, which will probably keep the game close. But Pittsburgh's slow, old defense won't be able to stop the Calvin/Reggie tandem. Their pass rush, which used to be so dominant, is barely existent at this point. LaMarr Woodley is still good, Polamalu is obviously still a stud, and middle linebacker Lawrence Timmons is one of the best chase-and-tackle guys in the league. But the rest of the defense is very below average. Their starting cornerbacks (Taylor & Gay) don't stand a chance against Calvin Johnson. Also, this might be the long-anticipated return of Nate Burleson!! I can't hardly contain my excitement. He might catch 2 passes for 13 yards. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I realize I have been taking the Lions like a homer all season, and I'm doing my best to look at this objectively ... but I still just see a huge mismatch in so many areas. Roethlisberger loves to get sacked, the Steelers can't block, Suh and Fairley in the middle ... yeah, I'm taking the Lions. 27-23.<br />(Over 47.5) </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Falcons (2-7) @ Bucs (1-8)<br />Predicted Line: ATL by 1.5<br />Actual Line: ATL by 2</b> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This is a no-win situation for me. I've taken Atlanta in 4 of their last 5 games and lost each time. They are coming off three straight blowouts (all against playoff-caliber teams, granted). They can't seem to compete with anyone since losing Julio Jones. They even lost to the Jets in a game which they were favored to win by 10. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But then there's Tampa. How has Greg Schiano not been fired yet? He's made a complete mockery of that franchise, he's more dispised by his fan base than any coach in any sport right now. And yet, the 1-8 Bucs could conceivably be 5-4. They outplayed Seattle in Seattle two weeks ago, and then those same Seahawks turned around and pummeled Atlanta. So I'm actually inclined to take Tampa. What the heck. Bucs 27-24. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 43) </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Jets (5-4) @ Bills (3-7)<br />Predicted Line: NYJ by 1</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: BUF by 1 </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Two rookie QBs, two pretty good defenses. This is a classic coinflip. So, I literally just flipped a coin. I'm taking the Jets. Let's say 23-21.<br />(Over 41) </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (5-5)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 4</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: PHI by 3.5</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Question: who is the best quarterback in the NFC East right now? Is it the two-time Super Bowl MVP? The reigning Rookie of the Year who was recently worth three 1st round picks? Or the guy who routinely throws for 400 yards and 3 TDs in losing efforts? </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">How about none of them. Nick Stinkin Foles has not thrown an interception this season, he has SIXTEEN touchdowns and among QBs with 100 attempts, he's first in YPA, first in QB rating, and tenth in completion percentage. There are TEN quarterbacks who have thrown at least twice as many passes as Foles and yet have thrown fewer touchdown passes: Flacco, Brady, Ben, RG3, Tannehill, Eli, Palmer, Luck, Alex & Geno Smith. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Matt Stafford has thrown 237 more passes than Foles, and has three more touchdowns. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I know it's skewed by the 7-td performance, but we can't act like the 7-td performance didn't happen. This guy is throwing the deep ball better than anybody right now. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br />Everybody I've read is jumping all over the Redskins because of that half-point. If the Eagles only win by 3, whatever. I'm rolling with Foles. Philly 30-23. <br />(Under 53) </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Ravens (4-5) @ Bears (5-4)<br />Predicted Line: CHI by 1.5<br />Actual Line: CHI by 3 </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">If I'm going to pick Baltimore to make the playoffs, I guess I ought to back it up. Although Josh McCown is an upgrade over Cutler, he's not going to revitalize the offense entirely; Baltimore's defense is extremely good and has been underrated since week 2. Plus Matt Forte looks like he's wearing lead shoes. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore's crap offense should be able to move the ball against the Bears' crap defense. This game has ugly written all over it. </span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Let's say Ravens 20-16.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 46.5) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Browns (4-5) @ Bengals (6-4)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 4.5<br />Actual Line: CIN by 6</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Two many points in a divisional game, with the Bengals missing their two best defenders, and Joe Haden covering A.J. Green. Cleveland's defense is good. Bengals 16-13. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 42.5)</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Raiders (3-6) @ Texans (2-7)<br />Predicted Line: HOU by 3.5<br />Actual Line: HOU by 7 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">When you're on a 7 game losing streak, your franchise QB falls apart mentally and then induces cheers from the home crowd when he gets injured, your franchise player (Foster) needs back surgery, your coach inexplicably passes out on the sideline and Wade Phillips takes over, you just <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24223741/report-texans-to-release-ed-reed">released </a>your prized free agent acquisition in the middle of the season, and your playoff hopes are completely obliterated as your watch Andrew Luck dominate the division just like Peyton Manning used to .... the best possible remedy is a home game against</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"> </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_McGloin" style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Matt McGloin. </a> <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Who is Matt McGloin, you ask? I have absolutely no idea. Apparently, he is an undrafted rookie QB from Penn State. As a general rule, when you only complete 57% of your passes in college and lose to teams called Ohio and Virginia, you aren't going to succeed in the NFL. Oakland can't wait to get Terrelle Pryor back. Texans 24-14. Here comes the big Ben Tate game we've been waiting for all these years. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 42)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Cardinals (5-4) @ Jaguars (1-8)<br />Predicted Line: ARZ by 6.5<br />Actual Line: ARZ by 7</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">Copy-pasting WalterFootball.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">com on th</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17.671875px;">is one: <i>"</i></span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><i>I'm not a fan of laying a touchdown on the road with a mediocre team, but this is a special case because the Jaguars are an abomination. They got their fluke win out of the way, so now they'll continue to do what they do best - lose by double digits." </i></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Cards 24-16. <br />(Under 41) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chargers (4-5) @ Dolphins (4-5)<br />Predicted Line: MIA by 2.5<br />Actual Line: SD by 1.5 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">93% of the betting on the road team. Nobody wants to touch the Martin-Incognito fiasco right now. Whatever - I'll take the home dog. This spread doesn't make sense for two evenly matched teams. Miami 23-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 45.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Vikings (2-7) @ Seahawks (9-1)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: SEA by 12.5<br />Actual Line: SEA by 13</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Minnesota is the shrewd pick here, as Seattle has looked vulnerable against the run lately and AP is somewhat of a legend in the making. It wouldn't shock me at all if Peterson had a monster game and kept it close, maybe even pulled off the upset. But the more I think about Christian Ponder against the league's best secondary in the league's toughest stadium, the more I envision his stat line being something like 9 for 22 for 85 yards and 3 INTs. Seattle 27-13. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 46)<br /><br /><b>49ers (6-3) @ Saints (7-2)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 3.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NO by 2.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br />I was hoping to take the Niners to cover in a close game, but this spread is too low. Saints by a field goal I guess. 33-30. <br />(Over 47.5) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Packers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6)<br />Predicted Line: NYG by 4.5<br />Actual Line: NYG by 6</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'm going to have to pick against Scott Tolzier just on principle. Giants 27-20.<br />(Over 42) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chiefs (9-0) @ Broncos (8-1)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 4.5<br />Actual Line: DEN by 8</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">There's at least a 40% chance the Chiefs win straight up, so I've gotta take these points. Denver 31-27. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 49.5)<br /><br /><b>Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 1.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CAR by 1 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Carolina is simply the better team. Panthers 26-16. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 46) </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Go Lions!!!! </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">PS - Flying to India tomorrow. </span></span></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-5398412293842552782013-11-07T15:28:00.002-05:002013-11-09T00:11:38.873-05:00Week 10 Picks<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Week nine recap:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">8-5 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">5-8 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">8-5 over/unders</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Overall:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">90-43 straight up (67.6%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">68-60-5 against the spread (53.1%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">15-10-1 over/unders (60%) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">A brutal week against the spread. Where to begin? </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Bengals went from 49-9 winners to outright losers in Miami. Dalton went from nearly flawless against the Jets to four turnovers and an overtime sack. The Fins, who couldn't run the ball whatsoever in their first seven games, had their first 100 yard rusher with Lamar Miller on only 16 carries. (Can't overstate the detrimental loss of Geno Atkins, who went out in the 2nd quarter and is lost for the season with an ACL. The Bengals just might lose their next five games and botch what appeared to be an easy division title.) Also worth noting: Miami finally was able to run the ball in their first game without Jonathan Martin. Now they'll be without Richie Incognito for the rest of the year and forevermore. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Speaking of Incognito ... what a weird, weird story. I'm annoyed by the level of shock and outrage being displayed by all the talking heads. Really, you're surprised that an NFL player uses inappropriate language? I've never been in an NFL locker room, but it doesn't take a genius to know that "racist slurs" and "homophobic slurs" are part of how these guys talk. I'm not defending Incognito - I'm sure he's a monumental asshole - but I also think this story is way out of control. It's going to be the new "Bounty Gate" or "Spy Gate": making a huge deal out of something that probably happens on every team. Maybe this was an extreme example, but that doesn't make me care about it. Let's just start calling this "Bully Gate" and move on to more interesting stories. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The Jets went from 9-49 losers to beating the mighty Saints and holding Drew Brees to only 20 points. I picked that game correctly against the spread (NO by 6), but was still shocked by the result. With losses by the Chargers and Ravens, I'd say the Jets are probably the most logical pick for the #6 seed right now. Another game I picked correctly but was still stunned by was Philly beating Oakland. The Raiders were a slight favorite at home. I picked Philly 26-23; instead Philly won 49-20. Nick Foles played one of the best statistical games in NFL history, with 7 TDs and near-perfect stats. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Then there was Tom Brady, who waited until nine games into the season to finally play a decent game and totally obliterate the Steelers in old-school Patriots fashion. As much as I begrudge Brady for screwing up my fantasy season, I did love seeing that. Pittsburgh is 2-6. Time to start rebuilding you morons. Go eat a hoagie. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The weirdest game of the week was Seattle barely eking out a win at home against winless Tampa. That's the second week in a row that Seattle got totally outplayed and still won. Don't know if that makes them resilient or vulnerable. I guess both. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Oh, also, Aaron Rodgers is out for 3 weeks. GO LIONS!! </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><i>Edit - Apparently this is the week to return from injuries. Jay Cutler, Clay Matthews, Aldon Smith, Roddy White, EJ Manuel, and Andre Brown are all coming back. </i></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Here are the week 10 picks: </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Redskins (3-5) @ Vikings (1-7) - Thursday </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: WAS by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: WAS by 2</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Two bad defenses, two good running attacks. But the easy choice is the superior quarterback. Redskins 24-17.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 50) </span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bills (3-6) @ Steelers (2-6)<br />Predicted Line: PIT by 2.5<br />Actual Line: PIT by 2.5</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Not surprisingly, the Bills are an underdog that the public loves, with 61% of the betting on their side. How could anyone side with Pittsburgh after their wheels fell off against New England in a pathetic display of slowness and old age. The Bills can run the ball, rush the passer, they have their starting QB back, and Pittsburgh looks like an absolute train wreck right now. Easy money right? But on the flip side... the home team has the better QB and the better coach. Plus I have a funny feeling that EJ Manuel is going to need more than one game to fully get caught back up to NFL speed. Pittsburgh 27-23. <br />(Over 44</span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Lions (5-3) @ Bears (5-3)<br />Predicted Line: CHI by 1.5</b></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: Pick Em </b></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It's scary how much love there is for the Lions in the general public right now. Writers, radio people, just about everyone is enamored with them following the incredible Cowboys comeback game. Between that and the injury to Aaron Rodgers, let's just pencil Detroit into the playoffs. </span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Yikes. </span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Not so fast. </span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Yes, Stafford's last-minute comeback was arguably the best minute of his career, but it wasn't exactly a pristine game for him. In fact, if you take Megatron off the offense, it's probably safe to say we would have lost 44-10 instead of winning 31-30. But - there are a lot of things to be excited about. Calvin, Suh, Bush, Levy all playing extremely well. Stafford playing pretty well most of the time. The offensive line holding its own. The safeties are competent; the cornerbacks are below-average but not as awful as previous years. What's lacking right now is a pass rush - Detroit has just 13 sacks in 8 games. That's the fewest among teams that are actually competitive. When you're spending all your first round draft picks on D-linemen, that's a bad stat. Ziggy Ansah is not a bust, but he's sure not a top 5 pick. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The big story in this game is Jay Cutler. He's returning earlier than expected from the groin injury, and I'm almost a little bit glad. Josh McCown looked plenty capable last week against the Packers. We know what we can expect from Cutler - bad decisions, bad pocket presence, bad attitude. Without Forte and Marshall, Cutler would be one of the worst five starting QBs in the league. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Truth is, both of these teams are extremely flawed, and neither should be considered a strong contender to beat out Green Bay. Remember, Detroit went 4-12 last year and still employs a terrible head coach. Chicago is without Lance Briggs, their defensive centerpiece, and has been giving up 130 rushing yards a game. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I don't like the Lions on the road, I don't like the Lions outdoors, but I really don't like the Bears chances against Calvin Johnson, particularly in the 4th quarter. This'll be one of those sloppy, back-and-forth, see-which-team-can-make-more-mistakes type of games, with the Lions winning on a late field goal, 33-31. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 52.5) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Jaguars (0-8) @ Titans (4-4)<br />Predicted Line: TEN by 11.5<br />Actual Line: TEN by 13 </b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Commencing Jake Locker Overreaction Week, after he goes 22 for 28, for 290 yards and 3 TDs, with a fancy 40 yard touchdown scamper mixed in. Titans 38-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 41) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Eagles (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)<br />Predicted Line: GB by 1</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: GB by 1</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It's not about betting against the Packers now that Rodgers is out. It's just about believing that Nick Foles is legit. Eagles 27-23. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 47)<br /><br /><b>Raiders (3-5) @ Giants (2-5)<br />Predicted Line: NYG by 4.5<br />Actual Line: NYG by 7.5</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Can't possibly trust the Giants for this many points after the way they began the season. Plus Terrelle Pryor seems poised to steal the title of Backdoor Bandit from Cam Newton. Giants 20-17.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 44)<br /></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Rams (3-6) @ Colts (6-2)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: IND by 7.5<br />Actual Line: IND by 10</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Again, too many points. Rams have found their running back, Colts have not figured out how to play defense. Indy in a comeback. 30-27. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 44)<br /></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Seahawks (8-1) @ Falcons (2-6)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SEA by 6</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Atlanta has been blown out in consecutive home games (both of which I picked them ATS), but I still feel this is too many points. Matt Ryan is still good, now he's got Roddy White and Steven Jackson back, and Seattle is eking out ugly wins. I'll say Seattle 21-20. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 45)<br /></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (3-5)<br />Predicted Line: BAL by 2.5<br />Actual Line: CIN by 1</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Geno Atkins and Leon Hall out for Cincy. Baltimore's season on the line. John Harbaugh has something like a 70% ATS winning percentage in home games. Plus a million more reasons to take the Ravens. Baltimore 27-22. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 44)</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Panthers (5-3) @ 49ers (6-2)<br />Predicted Line: SF by 5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SF by 6</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Carolina's playing too good right now not to take the points. Niners 23-20.<br />(Under 43.5)</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Texans (2-6) @ Cardinals (4-4)<br />Predicted Line: ARZ by 4<br />Actual Line: ARZ by 3</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Love the Texans this week - Case Keenum is very impressive to me, and Ben Tate finally gets a week with no Foster to show what he can do. I've been drafting him in fantasy football for the past 3 seasons waiting for him to finally get the starting job. Anything less than 160 yards would be a disappointment. Houston wins on the road and stays alive, 26-14. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 41.5)</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Broncos (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5<br />Actual Line: DEN by 7</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I've picked seven underdogs in a row and here comes another one. Broncos 31-27. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 58.5)</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Cowboys (5-4) @ Saints (6-2)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 7</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NO by 7</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The underdog streak continues. Tony Romo plays up to the level of other elite QBs, so long as he doesn't win the game. Saints 34-30. "Anytime you lose, it's disappointing. We just didn't get the job done today." [<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3KE79B94cY">Know your Romo</a>]</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 54)</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Dolphins (4-4) @ Bucs (0-8)<br />Predicted Line: MIA by 3</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: MIA by 3</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Make that nine underdog picks in a row, and going out with a bang, as the winless homedog Bucs notch their first victory and send Jaguar fans into jubilee as they celebrate the #1 pick in next April's draft. Just kidding - there aren't any Jaguar fans. Tampa runs all over Miami, and cruises 27-16. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 41) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">GO LIONS! </span></span><br />
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David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-30993555789184108322013-10-29T15:21:00.002-04:002013-11-02T20:51:40.777-04:00Week 9 Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Week eight recap:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">11-2 straight up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">8-5 against the spread</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">7-5-1 over/unders</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Overall:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">82-38 straight up (68.3%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">63-52-5 against the spread (54.7%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">7-5-1 over/unders </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'll certainly take 11-2 straight-up (84%), but I'm not going to brag about it; when you consider that there were 9 favorites of 7+ points and all 9 of them won outright, it wasn't a very difficult week of picks. In all, favorites went 11-2 straight-up this week, and one of those losses was Pittsburgh, who shouldn't have been favored on the West Coast, where they are 1-6 since 2003. Oakland and the Giants - the two underdogs who won - were pretty easy picks ATS. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The story of the week - with apologies to Megatron - was Cincinnati. Scoring 49 points against a good defense, the Bengals proved they are legit. Marvin Jones isn't going to be a fluke; he's a legitimate #2 receiver to complement A.J. Green, and now as defenses pay more attention to the deep ball, it allows Gio Bernard to use his speed and make some huge plays on draws and screens. Cincy is set up nicely for a postseason run, with a 2.5 game lead in the surprisingly awful division. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">In fact, the AFC playoff picture is almost set and we're only halfway through the season. We know KC, Denver, Indy, Cincy and New England are in. That leaves one Wildcard spot, and the Chargers are the only remaining team above .500 at 4-3. The Titans, Ravens, Dolphins, Jets, and maybe even Steelers, Browns, Raiders, Bills, and Texans have a chance at that #6 seed. But the biggest storyline in the AFC is the two upcoming games between KC and Denver, which will determine who gets homefield throughout and who doesn't get a bye. Right now, I'm thinking it'll be a Peyton-Luck rematch in the AFC Championship. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">The NFC playoff picture isn't quite as clear, though we do know the Niners, Seahawks and Saints are in. The Packers are the logical choice to win the North, barring an injury to Rodgers, and nobody in the East is above .500, so it's safe to say no Wildcard will come from that division, especially considering the number of games they still play against one another. That leaves Detroit, Carolina, Chicago and Arizona fighting for the final spot. In other words, not much changed this past week, as none of the playoff contenders lost. Carolina is red hot, Detroit and Arizona got huge wins, and Atlanta, Tampa and St. Louis slid closer to the top of the 2014 draft. The big surprise was Seattle, who looked like absolute crap and only mustered 135 total yards against the Rams, 80 of which came on one play. Russell Wilson had 10 completions and was sacked 7 times. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Three things to watch out for in the NFC: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">1) The Giants winning 6 of their last 8 games, and winning the division at 8-8. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">2) The Packers @ Lions on Thanksgiving. If Detroit pulls the upset, that could shake things up in a big way. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">3) The Panthers - with two games left against the Saints (weeks 14 and 16) they have a snowball's shot at stealing the division. </span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Lastly, I should probably say something about Calvin Johnson and his 329 yards and /or Dez Bryant acting like a raging lunatic. You might remember my prediction before the game that they would combine for 400 receiving yards. (I was off by one yard). For all the talk about these two, I speculate that the only difference between these two players is between the ears. Dez has phenomenal talent; in some ways, he's stronger and faster than Calvin. But Calvin can run better routes, outthink defenders, anticipate the play before it happens, and inspire - rather than infuriate - his teammates. It's like comparing Jerry Rice to Terrell Owens, or Tim Duncan to Allen Iverson. Dez has superstar talent, Hall of Fame talent even, but he's a jackass and a thug and an embarrassment to his teammates and himself. Calvin is the classiest, humblest, most reluctant superstar I've ever seen. He's almost embarrassed by his own greatness. And that's why one guy had 14 for 329 and the other guy had 3 for 72. That's why one guy is beloved by the entire league, even his opponents, and the other guy is bemoaned by his own organization. That's why Calvin broke the single-season yardage record, and just might do it again. 143 yards per game for the next eight games - definitely not impossible. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Dez Bryant's career is on a trajectory somewhere in between TO and Ochocinco ... while Calvin is carving out a legacy that is one notch below Jerry Rice and one notch above everyone else. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Here are the week 9 picks. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bengals (6-2) @ Dolphins (3-4)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CIN by 2.5 </b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I was expecting tons of line value following the Bengals' dismantling of the Jets, but apparently people aren't buying into Andy Dalton just yet. Well, that's not entirely true. 90% of the betting is on the road team. But that's because the line is so curiously low. The Bengals have won 4 straight, the Fins have lost 4 straight, so this seems like a no-brainer. I can't think of a good reason why this line isn't 4 points higher. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">If I try really hard to overthink it, I suppose I could say that Miami has a strong defense, a capable secondary, a competent QB, and possibly the best overall player in this game now that Cameron Wake is finally healthy again. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But on the flip side ... Cincy's D is better than Miami is, they'll be able to stop Miami's non-existent running game with only 4 defenders (especially because one of those guys is Geno Atkins), and they'll create lots of 3rd and longs and then put seven guys in coverage. A careful look at Tannehill's game-by-game stats shows that he's starting to regress. Maybe he's trying too hard to compensate for the worthless running game. Who knows. When he was drafted I considered him John Navarre 2.0, so if he regresses and ultimately doesn't work out as a starting NFL quarterback, I guess I won't be too surprised. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">With the emergence of Marvin Jones last week, Miami's D will be the first to try to figure out how to stop these suddenly explosive Bengals, and if they aren't careful A.J. Green will take advantage. I'm thinking Gio Bernard has a big game here and officially becomes the leading candidate for ROY. Bengals 27-9. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 42) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><i>*Edit - missed the pick, but I was right about <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/01/gio-bernard-touchdown-grimes-video-bengals_n_4186283.html">Gio</a>. Dang. </i></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Falcons (2-5) @ Panthers (4-3)<br />Predicted Line: CAR by 8</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: CAR by 7.5 </b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'm all about line value in divisional games. This is an overreactive spread based on what happened last week. Matt Ryan is too good to be an 8-point underdog. I like the Panthers in a bit of a shoot-out, 30-27. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 43.5) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Vikings (1-6) @ Cowboys (4-4)<br />Predicted Line: DAL by 8</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: DAL by 10.5</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It's a small sample size, but in the 25 games that he's been favored by 7+ points, Tony Romo has only covered 32% of the time. Plus, they say that teams playing a second road game in a row tend to cover a lot of spreads. So that makes me initially lean toward the Vikings, even though I just watched them get demolished by Aaron Rodgers a couple nights ago. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This might be a good place to mention the NFL trade deadline, which is today (Tuesday the 29th). Lots of rumors, which include everyone from Larry Fitzgerald to Jared Allen to Maurice Jones-Drew and many more. It's too bad more trades don't occur in the NFL. For example, why doesn't a team on the fringe of the playoffs (say, the Lions) give up a 3rd round pick to a non-contender (say, Houston) for a position they need (say, CB)? Wouldn't that make plenty of sense? Even if it's just for depth, to keep Bill 'The Human Penalty' Bentley off the field on third downs. It's not like the Lions don't end up cutting all their 3rd round picks anyway. Might as well get something for them. I don't see why NFL GMs aren't more aggressive at the trade deadline like they are in baseball. Can we make Dave Dombrowski the dual-GM of the Lions and Tigers? </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><i>*EDIT - No trades occurred. None that matter anyway. </i></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I think I'm going to lay the points here, despite the trends I mentioned above. Minnesota's in disarray. Their own coach <a href="http://www.vikings.com/news/article-1/Frazier-on-Quarterback-Decision-for-Dallas-Injury-Updates-and-More/b8ff0cfb-1419-4203-8b1c-98c67fcf1581">has no idea</a> who he wants to start at quarterback and it's week 9. They are wasting Adrian Peterson's prime right now and it's a travesty. Cowboys have too much offense for the hopeless Vikings D. Dallas 31-14. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 47.5) </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Saints (6-1) @ Jets (4-4)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 6</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NO by 6 </b></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Both of these teams have winning records against the spread, with the Saints 5-2 and the Jets 5-3. Aside from their loss to the Patriots (a game the Saints should have won and would have won 8 out of 10 times), they've won 5 of their 6 games by 6 points or more. However, they typically score 30+ points at home (15 out of the last 20 times) but average just 26.4 on the road, including a meager 23 per game this season. And despite what happened last week, the Jets do have a solid defense. [Insert Rex Ryan joke and/or complement here]. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">So the question becomes, can the Jets offense score at least 20 or 23 points and thereby cover the spread? </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It should be mentioned, but certainly not elaborated upon, that Rex's brother is the D-coordinator of the Saints.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br />Geno Smith has been the epitome of inconsistency this year, with an every-other-game trend that is alarming. Check out his QB ratings by game: </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">80.6 27.6, 89.9, 79.2, 147.7, 48.8, 71.9, 51.9. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Or his fantasy points per game: 16, 3, 28, 9, 27, 4, 22, 2. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">It's wacky. It's also worth noting that most of his good games have come at home. I'm gonna say Jets cover. Saints 24-20. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 45) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Titans (3-4) @ Rams (3-5)<br />Predicted Line: Pick Em </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: TEN by 3 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I spent a good eight minutes thinking about who is the best overall player in this game. I have no idea. Chris Long? Jake Long? The Rams kicker?? It might actually be a guy I had never thought about prior to this season - Alterraun Verner, a CB for the Titans who is making a strong case for the Pro Bowl. He's also the guy who did <a href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/0ap1000000065075/WK-3-Can-t-Miss-Play-Verner-to-the-house">this</a>. (I hate you Pettigrew). </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I know Jake Locker is the better quarterback, but I'm also pretty sure the Rams have the better defense. They just shut the Seahawks down entirely. Tennessee's defense started out hot but has regressed, although it's notable that their last three games were KC, SEA and SF. Not exactly a winnable slate. Before those games they were 3-1 with an overtime loss. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But two things are paramount in this game: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">1) The Rams had a short week to prepare after playing Monday night, while the Titans have had two weeks. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">2) Jeff Fisher - after coaching the Titans for 16 seasons - is playing against them for the first time. It'd be more interesting if this game was in Nashville, but there are still plenty of intriguing subplots stemming from the Fisher Bowl.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I can't see either team running away with it, so I'm going to take the points and say Titans 20-19. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 39.5) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chiefs (8-0) @ Bills (3-5)</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Predicted Line: KC by 6.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: KC by 3.5 </b> </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Just wrote a couple big long paragraphs and then this stupid website deleted them and won't let me click 'undo.' </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Whatever - Chiefs 23-17. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 40.5) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Chargers (4-3) @ Redskins (2-5)<br />Predicted Line: SD by 1</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SD by 1 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">My least favorite game of the week to pick. I'm 100% sure I'll get this game wrong. I guess I have a slightly better feeling about the Chargers - coming off a bye, Rivers can light up Washington's secondary. I think it'll be fairly high scoring. Let's say 30-26 San Diego. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 51) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Eagles (3-5) @ Raiders (3-4)<br />Predicted Line: OAK by 3</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: OAK by 2.5</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">There was a lot of preseason talk about the Raiders going 0-16. They were barely good enough to play in the SEC, many people said. So how have they won 3 games, and how did they almost beat the Colts? And considering that two of their losses were against Denver and KC, and another was with backup QB Matt Flynn stinking it up, you could honestly argue that this is a pretty good team. When Terrelle Pryor plays, they are 3-3, with losses to teams that are a combined 20-3. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">On the flip side, their wins are all at home, and are against teams that are a combined 6-16, including a win against Jacksonville, which doesn't really count. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">So, the story is, they can beat lousy teams, but they can't beat good teams. That's a perfect segueway to discuss the Eagles, the most schizophrenic team of 2013. Philly clearly sucks - their offense has only scored 3 points in the past two games - both against lousy defenses, both home games. And we know Philly's defense is horrendous - they rank 31st in yards allowed, 31st against the pass, and lead the league in defensive penalties. The Chip Kelly experiment has failed, and Oakland will move to 4-4 and stay in playoff contention. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">But ... LeSean McCoy leads the league in rushing yards, DeSean Jackson is 5th in receiving, and the offense ranks 5th in yards-per-game, not bad for a flurry for injuries at the QB position. Now they are moving back to Nick Foles, who is clearly their best option at QB, which isn't saying much. Maybe all Chip Kelly needs is a QB who can run his scheme (Tajh Boyd? Marcus Mariota? Johnny Football?) and this team will be unstoppable. It's reasonable. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Even with Foles, this team has been pretty effective. He's got 6 TDs, 0 picks, and a 2-1 record as a starting QB this year. Of course, his two wins are against 0-7 Tampa and the 2-6 Giants. But still.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'm going to take the mild upset and say Eagles 26-23. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 45) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bucs (0-7) @ Seahawks (7-1)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 17</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: SEA by 17</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Since blowing out San Francisco in week 2, Seattle really hasn't been dominant enough to be worthy of being a 17 point favorite. This spread has more to do with Tampa . With Richard Sherman shutting down Vincent Jackson, and Mike Williams and Doug Martin injured, it's difficult to imagine how Tampa could possibly move the ball or score any points. Of course, I said the same thing about the Kellen Clemens-led Rams, and they outgained Seattle 339 to 135. But that was in St. Louis, and we all know how good Seattle plays at home. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">I'm gonna take the Seahawks, who are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Final score 31-10. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 40.5) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Ravens (3-4) @ Browns (3-5)<br />Predicted Line: BAL by 3</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: BAL by 2.5</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Not overthinking this one. Ravens 20-13. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Under 41.5) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Steelers (2-5) @ Patriots (6-2)<br />Predicted Line: NE by 5.5</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Actual Line: NE by 7</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">This one either. Pats 23-22. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 44) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Colts (5-2) @ Texans (2-5)<br />Predicted Line: IND by 2.5<br />Actual Line: IND by 2</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Personally, I don't think that Reggie Wayne injury is all that detrimental. Between Hilton, Heyward-Bey, Fleener, and whoever else slides up the depth chart, Andrew Luck will figure things out. Maybe they'll finally start throwing the ball to Trent Richardson. I like the Colts 34-24. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 44.5) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;"><b>Bears (4-3) @ Packers (5-2)<br />Predicted Line: GB by 10.5<br />Actual Line: GB by 11 </b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Taking the big points in another division matchup. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Josh McCown can do a decent job of keeping it close given the weapons he has to work with. Packers 34-27. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">(Over 49.5) </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17.671875px;">Go Lions. </span><br />
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David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738131763591805347.post-42281791299545498682013-10-21T16:07:00.001-04:002013-10-24T20:42:13.519-04:00Week 8 Picks <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Week seven recap:<br />
8-7 straight up<br />
8-7 against the spread<br />
<br />
Overall:<br />
71-36 straight up (66.3%)<br />
55-47-5 against the spread (53.9%)<br />
<br />
It was a bizarre week in the NFL, riddled with injuries and upsets. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were beat by QBs in their early twenties, Sam Bradford and Reggie Wayne tore ACLs, Brian Cushing and Lance Briggs were lost for the season, and Jay Cutler suffered his annual injury, decimating the Bears season. Doug Martin was also lost for the year, cementing his fantasy status as one of the worst busts ever. Unknowns Harry Douglas (149 and a score) and Jarrett Boykin (146 and a score) delivered huge games in the wake of Julio and Cobb's injuries. And some dude named Jordan Reed has emerged as not only the Redskins starting tight end, but their best offensive playmaker and maybe a top 5 fantasy tight end. <br />
<br />
Also, Jim Schwartz showed everyone why he sucks as a coach, and Stafford proved yet again that his head just isn't in the game, and he doesn't have the overpowering will-to-win that NFL quarterbacks need to really be successful. The Chiefs won again, and now stand as the only unbeaten team. But they narrowly beat Case Keenum and the Texans; by the way, Case Keenum is pretty good. Nick Foles got a concussion, thus relinquishing the job back to Mike Vick, and the Jags lost by double-digits yet again, falling to 0-7. Their remaining schedule does not have any games that appear winnable; 0-16 is a fantastic possibility. Why haven't they signed Tebow yet??!? <br />
<br />
Keep in mind, the Bucs are also winless, and now Doug Martin-less, so Teddy Bridgewater doesn't quite belong to Jacksonville yet. The Greg Schiano firing has to be this week, right? Maybe immediately after their loss on Thursday? <br />
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Some slow but intriguing developments are taking place in the Standings, as a few teams who started out crappy now look feisty. The Panthers (3-3), Redskins and Steelers (2-4), Jets and Chargers (4-3) and Bills (3-4) all have to be considered frisky Wildcard possibilities. And thanks to the aforementioned injuries to Cutler and Bradford, the road to the NFC Wildcard just opened up for Detroit. Next week's game against Dallas is huge; then a bye week to prepare for the Cutler-less Bears. That's the must-win of the season. <br />
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Detroit's remaining seven games have only one killer (Green Bay) and three cupcakes (Tampa, Giants, Vikings), so if the Lions can go 5-2 in those games they'll have a great chance to finish 10-6 or 11-5, depending on if they can beat the Cowboys and/or Bears. That would be great because it puts Detroit in the playoffs; that would suck because it probably means Jim Schwartz again in 2014. <br />
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Last note before we get to the picks - how stinking good is Andrew Luck? He's now beat the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. He's yet to lose two games in a row in his brief NFL career. And his next obstacle - keeping the offense going without Reggie Wayne - will be his next conquest. T.Y. Hilton is about to be a fantasy star. (Of course, it helps when the other three teams in the AFC South are on a 3-game losing streak, a 5-game losing streak, and a 7-game losing streak.) The Colts have a tighter stranglehold on their division than any other team. And their punter delivered <a href="http://extramustard.si.com/2013/10/21/pat-mcafee-punter-colts-steroid-test/?sct=hp_t2_a12&eref=sihp">the play of the season</a> -- a helmet-to-helmet destruction of some tiny kick returner. The punter is now being "randomly" tested for steroids. Seriously. <br />
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Oh, also, the Tigers lost in the ALCS and Jim Leyland <s>was fired</s> retired with great dignity. Hopefully the offseason will bring changes, namely some bullpen help and a left fielder. Oh, and if we can find some sucker to take on Prince's contract (or just release him and eat the money), we could move Cabrera back to 1st, move Castellanos to 3rd, and have enough cash to keep Scherzer at the end of 2014. Just saying. <br />
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So without further ado, here are the week 8 picks. By the way, I'm trying something new this week - picking the over/under for total points in each game, based on the Bovada.com point totals. Just for the heck of it. <br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Panthers (3-3) @ Bucs (0-6) - Thursday<br />Predicted Line: CAR by 6.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: CAR by 7 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
If you thought pubescent Mike Glennon was bad, wait til defenses no longer respect the running game and start double-teaming all his receivers. With Doug Martin off the field, Carolina won't be worried about some sixth-round rookie named Mike James. Vincent Jackson might be able to make a big play or two - Carolina's secondary isn't great - but it's going to be a crappy day for Tampa's offense. <b><br /></b><br />
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On the flip side, Cam Newton is suddenly playing the best football of his career (granted, only a two game sample size). 15 completions on 17 attempts against a pretty good defense. You can't beat that. And now he's finally running again, he's no longer turning the ball over ... in other words, this is a good time to bet on Cam Newton. <br />
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I know I should be wary of a seven-point road favorite, but this mismatch is tremendous. Carolina 23-13. <br />
(Under 40)<br />
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<b>Cowboys (4-3) @ Lions (4-3)<br />Predicted Line: DET by 2.5<br />Actual Line: DET by 3.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
With 64% of Vegas betting on the Cowboys, this is the only game on the week 8 slate where the underdog is preferred by the public. Which probably means this line drops down to DET by 1 or 1.5 by gameday. <br />
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And it makes sense. While Romo and Garrett are the more publicized choke artists, Stafford and Schwartz are by far the inferior duo. Romo shoots himself in the foot and everybody talks about it for weeks; Stafford shoots himself in the foot and nobody says two words about it, not even the Lions beat writers. How that guy escapes criticism is beyond me. I think it has something to do with expectations; after enduring the incompetence of Harrington and Kitna and a host of others, Stafford is a breath of wonderful fresh air to Lions fans. Even though Stafford [somewhat secretly] sucks with those stupid sidearm passes and his brainless decisions on third down and his complete lack of pocket presence or pocket mobility, we're willing to overlook those deficiencies, because his arm is a cannon and he throws for a shitload of yards. But to me, it's not about numbers. Yes, he has thrown for more yards than anybody except Brees and Brady over the last three years. Great. But wins and losses are what matter. The guy was the #1 overall pick, the guy is making $15 million a year, and despite the yardage numbers he puts up, no credible analyst would rank him in the top 10, let alone top 5, quarterbacks in the NFL. Anybody who says he's better than Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson is a stupid Lions homer. He's in the Cutler-Rivers-Eli tier, beneath a bunch of guys that he should be better than. Also, let's not forget that he throws to the best receiver in the world. We all saw what happened when Calvin was gone for one week. (shudders) <br />
<br />
One of those guys who Stafford should be better than but isn't is Tony Romo. And speaking of expectations, Romo follows in the footsteps of guys like Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach. His fans, and the nation as a whole, expect greatness every game, and when he throws for 500 yards and 5 TDs, all people talk about is that one interceptions. Imagine if that was Stafford. The story would have been totally different. Romo is under a weekly microscope; Stafford is playing on an anonymous beach on a mystery island, and people only care about his box score. Oh, 357 yards and 3 TDs on 51 attempts? <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331020008">Nice job</a>; you must be awesome. No mention of the countless bad throws or bad decisions. Or that the game was a loss and it was his fault for stupidly throwing the ball incomplete on 2nd and 3rd down with 40 seconds left and the Bengals only having one timeout in a tied game. That's just basic football 101, but when Stafford makes those blatantly egregious mistakes, nobody even freaking mentions it. If that were Romo, the talking heads would be dissecting him on an operating table and inspecting his lymph nodes as we speak.<br />
<br />
So, all that to say, we are luckily catching the Cowboys at a good time. DeMarcus Ware, their best overall player, will be out with a quad injury. DeMarco Murray is questionable, and if he plays he won't be full strength. And Miles Austin, who really isn't any good anymore anyway, is also out. Not sure that matters though.<br />
<br />
So it's back to the old Cowboys gameplan: throw like crazy, play awful defense, and hope you can outscore the other offense. In other words, a perfect fit for Detroit.<br />
<br />
If things play out like they should, Dez and Calvin will combine for 400 yards, the starting running backs will combine for about 50 rushing yards, and Stafford and Romo will each air it out 55 times, while secondaries run around aimlessly, getting burned and getting called for stupid penalties, and it'll ultimately come down to which error-prone, non-clutch, overrated quarterback has the ball last. <br />
<br />
I like the Lions, because of the X-factor: Ndamukong Suh. He's more disruptive than any other defensive player in this game, especially with Ware absent, and he might just wreak enough havoc to give Detroit an edge. I will take the points but the Lions straight up, 37-34, maybe in OT. <br />
(Over 51)<br />
<br />
<b>49ers (5-2) @ Jaguars (0-7) in London<br />Predicted Line: SF by 16.5<br />Actual Line: SF by 16.5 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Not only are the Jaguars 0-7, but they're an incredible 1-6 ATS this year, despite being double-digit underdogs every week. Their only cover was 26.5 points in Denver, a game they lost by "only" 16 points.<br />
<br />
So I'm taking San Fran, because Jim Harbaugh won't be afraid to put them in a hole and step on their throats. And the Colin Kaepernick mini-slump appears to be over. How about Niners 27-7. <br />
(Under 41)<br />
<br />
<b>Giants (1-6) @ Eagles (3-4)<br />Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5<br />Actual Line: PHI by 6 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The line is set at Eagles by 6, because it now looks almost certain that Vick will be able to start. Foles' concussion was timely because Chip Kelly avoids a quarterback controversy ... for now. There's still a glimmer of hope that third stringer Draco Malfoy [<a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/29232/matt-barkley">Matt Barkley</a>] gets the start if Vick can't go.<br />
<br />
The Giants are feeling confident after actually being competitive in their last two games and finally ending Eli's interception streak (six straight games). Leave it to Coughlin and Eli to finish the year on a 8-2 spree after being 0-6 and save their jobs and reputations. Not that I think they'll do that, but it wouldn't surprise me. <br />
<br />
By the way, funny fact for the day: Eli has attempted 4,725 passes in the NFL, played in 155 games over 10 seasons ... and is <u>only TWO years older</u> than Brandon Weeden, who was drafted as a rookie last year. <br />
<br />
I'm taking the Giants +6 because Vick with a hamstring injury doesn't inspire much confidence. It could easily go the other way, because the Giants have no running game and the Eagles have tons of running game, but I think Eli can keep the score close with a second-half barrage of points against the pitiful Eagles D. Philly wins 22-20. <br />
(Under 52)<br />
<br />
<b>Browns (3-4) @ Chiefs (7-0)<br />Predicted Line: KC by 8.5</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: KC by 7 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The Browns are an easy team to explain: 3-0 under Brian Hoyer, 0-4 under Brandon Weeden. <br />
<br />
The defense has been solid all year, though not unbeatable. But the offense has been erratic: 28.3 points per game with Hoyer and 11.5 points per game with Weeden. I mean, that's just ghastly. <br />
<br />
But wait! As I'm checking these numbers, I stumble upon the announcement - just posted 6 minutes ago - Jason Campbell will start this Sunday in KC! Weeden is benched, meaning his career as a starting QB is probably over. <br />
<br />
Campbell played in only three games last season, for the Bears, after Cutler was hurt. All three were losses, but you still have to consider him an upgrade over Weeden. At least he can move around a little bit, and he does have a stronger arm, or at least he did a few years ago. I'm sure KC's defense isn't in a panic, but they've got to be disappointed that they don't get to play Weeden.<br />
<br />
I'm pretty sure this game falls under the category of "Don't Overthink It." Chiefs get an early lead and then Jamaal Charles takes over. KC 27-10.<br />
(Under 40)<br />
<br />
<b>Bills (3-4) @ Saints (5-1)<br />Predicted Line: NO by 13.5<br />Actual Line: NO by 11.5</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Two major factors in this game: one is the health of Jimmy Graham. If he doesn't play, I'm not sure the Saints can score enough points to cover the spread. The other is the fact that New Orleans is coming off a bye. Two weeks to prepare for Thad Lewis, and two weeks to gameplan for an opportunistic but not elite defense. If Graham plays, it's a no-doubter. But I'm thinking his foot injury keeps him out another week. Still, I think the Saints can get a sizable lead and then force Thad Lewis into some mistakes. I'm doubtful that he can keep the fourth-quarter magic going for a third straight game. Saints 27-13.<br />
(Under 49)<br />
<br />
<b>Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (5-2)</b><br />
<b>Predicted Line: NE by 6.5<br />Actual Line: NE by 7</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
In his last three games, Tom Brady has 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a 51% completion percentage. Those numbers are Gabbert-esque. <br />
<br />
On the season, he's 29th in completion percentage, 30th in YPA, 26th in QB rating, and, oh by the way, 3rd in total attempts, behind just Stafford and Peyton. <br />
<br />
Are we sure he's still Tom Brady? A few games is understandable, but seven games is no longer a small sample size. Why are the Pats still getting lines like this? They could easily be 2-5. Wilfork and Mayo are both lost for the season. I don't get it. <br />
<br />
All I know is, I was ready to drop Brady in my fantasy league, and then I got an offer for him and accepted it without a second's thought. It could have been Priest Holmes and I would have accepted. (It was Andre Johnson, who I don't love, but whatever.) Then I had the choice between Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Geno Smith, and Thad Lewis from free agency. Frankly, I see all of them as an upgrade over Brady. I'll be playing the matchup at QB for the rest of the season and to me, that's a whole lot better than Brady throwing for 170 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. I'm officially done with Tom Brady. If he wants to prove me wrong, go ahead, I don't even care. <br />
<br />
Dolphins 23-19. (Under 45)<br />
<br />
<b>Jets (4-3) @ Bengals (5-2)<br />Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5<br />Actual Line: CIN by 7</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I can't figure either of these teams out. Both have wins against New England; the Bengals also beat Green Bay (although that was a fluke), and the Jets beat the pre-injured Falcons.<br />
<br />
But both have terrible losses on their docket; Cincy scored only 6 points against Cleveland, while the Jets got annihilated by Tennessee. <br />
<br />
Both these teams fall in the stupid, annoying category of "They could beat anybody, they could lose to anbody." Completely inconsistent. Though I will admit, both these teams are much better than I gave them credit for back in August. Taking the points is the only pick that makes any sense. Bengals 23-19. <br />
(Over 41.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (2-4)<br />Predicted Line: PIT by 3</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: PIT by 3 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Nice two game winning streak, but now it's time to remind people how incredibly bad this Steelers team is as they get demolished by Terrelle Pryor. Raiders 31-14. (Over 40)<br />
<br />
<b>Redskins (2-4) @ Broncos (6-1)<br />Predicted Line: DEN by 14.5<br />Actual Line: DEN by 14 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
All that talk about how Peyton was returning to Indy after being there for 13 seasons. How about this game: Mike Shanahan returns to Denver after coaching there for 13 seasons. A pretty big deal, right?<br />
<br />
Another good storyline: RG3, always in Luck's shadow, now has to try to replicate the success that Luck had against Denver. <br />
<br />
I wasn't impressed by Denver's defense at all last week; Champ Bailey looked bad and is now hurt. And Washington finally has a threat in the passing game in Jordan Reed.<br />
<br />
But the Redskins defense is too bad to even consider them slowing down the Peyton Manning Machine. I'm gonna say 35-13 Denver. (Under 58)<br />
<br />
<b>Falcons (2-4) @ Cardinals (3-4)<br />Predicted Line: ARZ by 2.5<br />Actual Line: ARZ by 2.5 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Last week Matt Ryan proved that he can still be a great quarterback without great receivers. He made freaking Harry Douglas unstoppable. This week, though, with Roddy White still out, Douglas gets matched up against Patrick Peterson and won't half half the success he had against. So will Matt Ryan be able to use Jacquizz Rodgers and Tony Gonzalez to be effective, or will the offense fall flat against the underrated Cardinals D? And how is the Cardinals D still underrated? I want to think the return of Steven Jackson will help, but I have my doubts about that. <br />
<br />
Arizona's offense is pretty anemic without a healthy Fitzgerald, as we've seen lately. Actually, they've been pretty anemic all season. The most points they've scored all year was 25, and that was with plenty of help from the retarded Lions defense. Weirdly, they've scored between 20 and 25 points in 5 of their 7 games, so we have a pretty clear idea of what their offense can do. If they would dump Mendenhall and focus entirely on the superior Andre Ellington, that might take some pressure off Carson Palmer. Maybe. But it's a very limited offense with a very unreliable offensive line, and Fitzgerald has a mixture of injuries and attitude problems and just isn't dominant anymore. <br />
<br />
So, that said, I see a whole lot of punting going on in this game, and quite a few field goals. Atlanta has the superior quarterback, but the inferior defense. I'll take the Cards by 4, 20-16. <br />
(Under 45)<br />
<br />
<b>Packers (4-2) @ Vikings (1-5)<br />Predicted Line: GB by 8.5<br />Actual Line: GB by 10 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Going against the grain (and 83% of the public) and taking the Vikings +10. It makes plenty of sense to side with Aaron Rodgers, who wins 63% of the time ATS since 2009. He proved last week that he can dominate without Cobb or James Jones. I'm sure the Pack will be able to score 24 to 27 points at least. Plus, Rodgers may be extra motivated playing against professional ass-clown Greg Jennings after all that nonsensical preseason trash talk.<br />
<br />
But something tells me Adrian Peterson isn't a smart guy to bet double-digits against. Just because he's had a few down weeks doesn't mean he's not still Adrian Peterson. And I like that the Vikings are smartly moving back to Ponder; although it's silly to fake a concussion for Freeman instead of just admitting that he stinks, it was still a smart move. Ponder has a lousy arm for the NFL, but he can manage the game without making many mistakes, and he is more mobile that Freeman. Also, the Packers don't have Clay Matthews. So, I'm going to say Packers in a surprisingly close game, 27-23.<br />
(Over 47.5)<br />
<br />
<b>Seahawks (6-1) @ Rams (3-4)<br />Predicted Line: SEA by 11</b><br />
<b>Actual Line: SEA by 11</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
That's four lines guessed exactly, and 13-for-13 lines guessed within 2 points. Much better than last week, when I was off by 2 or more points 9 times, and picked the wrong favorite 3 times. That explains why last week there were so many close games (6 games decided by 4 points or less). This week should feature at least 6 or 7 blowouts. <br />
<br />
And this will be one of them, with Kellen Clemens making his first start since 2011. Clemens started three games for the Rams in 2011, all losses by at least 7 points. And he was something of a backdoor expert. Losing 34-13 to the 49ers in the 4th quarter, he chucked two garbage TDs to make the score look respectable. Losing 20-6 to Cincy with 1 minute left, he got another garbage TD. And in his other start, Pittsburgh shut him out, with the Rams losing 27-0 and Clemens throwing for just 91 yards.<br />
<br />
His other starts all came in 2007 with the Jets; he was 3-5 in 8 starts with twice as many INTs and TDs, and a 60.9 QB rating.<br />
<br />
So in other words, it makes sense why the Rams reached out to Brett Favre this week. They are not feeling confident in Kellen Clemens. But (thank God), Favre turned them down, and they're stuck with Clemens for the rest of the year, unless they do something unconventional like call up Tebow or Pat White or Troy Smith, or turn to newly signed 3rd stringer Brady Quinn. Clemens will probably be just good enough to keep the starting job, and simultaneously prevent the Rams from drafting in the top 8 spots next year, which probably means more Sam Bradford in St. Louis. A lot will depend on whether sophomores Hundley (UCLA) and Mariota (Oregon) declare for the draft. If they do, there are <i>at least </i>FIVE quarterbacks going in the first round (assuming Manziel, Boyd and Bridgewater). That means the Jags, Browns, Bucs, Eagles, Vikings, Rams, and maybe Cardinals (seven teams) are fighting over those five quarterbacks. So the moral of the story is, you don't want to win too many games if you're a Rams or Cards or Eagles fan. <br />
<br />
Also, how much smarter is that Trent Richardson trade looking for Cleveland? Richardson has 228 yards on 75 carries (a repulsive 3.0 YPC) for the Colts, and a shockingly bad 2 receptions in 5 games. Or in layman's terms, he has about 6 fantasy points per game. While the Browns have an extra 1st round pick (which, granted, will be in the 20s) to package with their own 1st round pick and move up and make sure they get one of the elite QBs. It was a calculated risk that looked idiotic in the short-term, but in the long-term means the Browns will enter 2014 with a new face of the franchise. <br />
<br />
So all that to say, I'm taking the Seahawks in the blowout of the season, 42-0. <br />
(Under 42.5)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Go Lions! <br />
<br /></div>
David Morganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02874399679537272465noreply@blogger.com0