DavidMorgan

Thoughts on Super Bowl and some other stuff

2012-01-24T10:57:00.002-05:00

Sorry I've been slacking lately and haven't written anything on here. To be honest, I'm not really that excited about the Super Bowl. I have this dreadful feeling that the Giants are going to pull off another upset and Eli is going to considered a first ballot Hall of Famer by the end of February. This morning, John Clayton said that if not for Brees and Rodgers, Eli would have been the league's MVP this year. Really??? With a 9-7 record and the 7th best QB rating in the league? With fewer yards, TDs, and fewer wins than Stafford? Not to mention Tom Brady?

I'm okay with saying Eli was a top 8 MVP candidate this year, but clearly there are at least 4 quarterbacks who had better seasons, and Calvin, McCoy and Ray Rice belong above Eli in MVP voting as well. What Clayton said was basically like someone on Fox News saying, "If you don't count Romney, Gingrich and Santorum, Rick Perry could be the next President."

You can't just discount Rodgers and Brees. That makes no sense. Whatever.

By the way, I am officially on the Ron Paul bandwagon, even though the GOP nomination is between Frankenstein and Susan Boyle. (aka Romney and Gingrich)

Speaking of people who look like Newt Gingrich, have you seen this? Haunting.

Anyway, here's the Super Bowl pick.

Patriots (15-3) @ Giants (12-7)

Line: NE by 3

Patriots have won 10 straight; Giants have won 5 in a row. But the Giants road to the championship (Atlanta, @Green Bay, @San Fran) was a billion times more difficult than New England's (BYE, BYE, home against Baltimore who missed a 32 yard field goal which would have forced overtime). Gronkowski has a high ankle sprain, the Giants D is completely healthy and playing better than they've played in years, and Brady is coming off one of his worst playoff games ever. Oh, and the Pats secondary looks as bad as ever, giving up their standard 300+ yards to a mediocre quarterback last week.

I see New England coming out fast, with a smart gameplan of quick passes and screens designed to counter the Giants' vaunted pass rush. Giving Belichick two weeks to prepare usually leads to some high-scoring first halves. Brady should get his groove on early, and the Pats will be up 24-13 at half.

But Coughlin has a knack for adjustments and New England's defense has a knack for collapses, so I expect the Giants to come back, slowly but surely, until there's 4:00 left in the 4th quarter and Eli leads the 90 yard drive to tie the game at 34. Then, Brady drives down, stalls in the red zone, and the Pats kick a field goal with too much time left. Up 3 with 1:15 left, New England kicks off, and Victor Cruz does the rest, as the Giants easily march down the field for 7 and leave Brady with just 20 seconds and trailing 37-41. The hailmary falls incomplete, Eli collects his second title in Peyton's house, and I throw up in my mouth.

Giants 41-37.

In other news, the Tigers got Prince Fielder, Peyton Manning's career in Indy is over, and I seem to be the only person who cares about the NBA this season. Both of my fantasy basketball teams are kicking butt.

I'm considering my annual 50 Best Players in the NBA list, but it's still a work in progress.

Go Timberwolves.

Round 3 Playoff Picks

2012-01-20T12:10:00.003-05:00

5-3 so far in the playoffs for both ATS and straight-up picks, making me 136-128-10 on the entire season, and 178-86 straight-up, with three games to go. This weekend's games are both really tricky.

Ravens @ Patriots

Predicted Line: NE by 6.5

Actual Line: NE by 7

When in serious doubt about the outcome of a game, I usually take the points. I don't think enough people are seeing Baltimore as a legit title contender. Sure, Joe Flacco looks like Sylar from Heroes but with the worst mustache in human history . And true, he completed less than 20 passes per game this season. But let's be honest about the Baltimore offense: it revolves around Ray Rice, an elite fullback, and a really competent offensive line. When Flacco does throw, it's not dink and dump; he takes deep shots and he usually completes one or two of them per game. When you're going against an almost historically bad secondary, it stands to reason that Flacco should find Torrey Smith for 40+ yards at least once, maybe twice. New England couldn't stop anybody late this season - not Rex Grossman, not Matt Moore, not even Dan Orlovsky, who put up 353 yards and completed 30 of 37 passes.

Last week, Tebow was an abomination. He had 3 completions in the first half, and he's the only starting QB in the NFL who could be that bad against New England's defense. Flacco could throw left-handed and do better than Tebow did. And I'm not bashing Tebow ... it's just nice to have a decent throwing arm when you're playing against coverage guys who can't cover.

I think Flacco and Rice and Smith help Baltimore keep pace with Brady, who will make his share of plays but won't be having a scrimmage like last week. I expect Baltimore to create 2 or 3 turnovers and keep the game close. But I am taking the Pats straight up, mainly because they're at home. I actually think Baltimore is the better team. But whatever, let's go Pats 28-26.

Giants @ 49ers

Predicted Line: SF by 3

Actual Line: SF by 2.5

Don't really feel great about either team, but I'll take the home squad. Niners by 4. I doubt the Harbaughs will go 0-2 this week, and I really don't see New York's defense stopping Frank Gore very well. Plus, Patrick Willis might be at the stage in his career where he single-handedly wills his teams to playoff victories. San Fran 24-20.

That's it ... go Lions.

Also, Victor Martinez is out for the season, so the Tigers season is over before it started. Who's going to hit behind Cabrera? Boesch? Avila? Anybody have any good lineup suggestions? My best shot looks like this:

1. A Jackson CF

2. D Young DH

3. M Cabrera 1B

4. B Boesch LF

5. A Avila C

6. J Peralta SS

7. A Dirks RF

8. R Santiago 2B

9. D Kelly 3B

That's pretty ugly without Martinez. Unless Detroit makes a big move in the next two months, we aren't going to win the Central. And if Inge is starting at third in the opener, I'll personally guarantee that I won't watch a single game until July.

Go lions...

Playoffs Round 2, Plus a Look Ahead to April

2012-01-11T13:13:00.003-05:00

Went 2-2 ATS and 3-1 straight up, missing badly on the Tebow game, which broke the record for Most Tweets Per Second. Literally. What is there to say about Tebow that hasn't already been said. Nothing. I'm so eternally glad that Pittsburgh is out.

Last year, my 3 least favorite teams were in the final 4 (PIT, CHI, NYJ). This year, I actually like all of the final 8 teams a decent amount, though the order of who I am cheering for goes like this:
1. New England
2. Denver
3. New Orleans
4. Green Bay
5. Houston
6. Baltimore
7. Giants
8. San Fran

I still love my preseason prediction of Saints over Packers in the NFC Championship. Nobody will see them coming as everyone overemphasizes the cold outdoor weather. I don't think Drew Brees will care. As for San Diego, they can all go suck a bunch of lemons.

Saints @ 49ers
Predicted Line: NO by 3.5
Actual Line: NO by 3.5

I'm taking the points. San Fran won't make it easy for Brees. Their defense is a million times better than Detroit's. I'll say Saints 30-27.

Broncos @ Patriots
Predicted Line: NE by 9.5
Actual Line: NE by 13.5

Pats have lost their first playoff game two years in a row. There's not a chance in hell that that happens again. Not against Tim Tebow.

This is a dreadful matchup for Denver. New England's D is actually decent against the run (Wilfork, Mayo), but can't stop the pass or rush the passer. Tebow might have lit up the Steelers with 10 completions for 300+ yards, but still, it was just 10 completions. That doesn't usually work. Not when the other quarterback is arguably The Greatest of All Time.

Patriots 41-23.

I should probably say something about Josh McDaniels, the former Pats coordinator who took the Denver job, drafted Tebow, got fired, took a job with the Rams, coordinated the worst offense in the NFL and possibly crushed Sam Bradford's career, and then quit to reunite with Brady and Belichick in the middle of the playoffs, right in time to face his former team and his former 1st round draft pick. What a coward. I would hate his guts if I were a Rams fan. I pretty much hate his guts anyway. He better not get one single ounce of credit for Brady's 5 TD game.

Texans @ Ravens
Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5
Actual Line: BAL 7.5

Both teams are looking to run the ball, control the clock, and play awesome defense. So this line has to be a little bit too high. Andre Johnson is supposedly fully healthy and Baltimore doesn't have anyone who can cover him. But I'll take the Ravens 24-20.

Giants @ Packers
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 7.5

How about Packers 41-13.

... More to come later I guess ...

*Quick note on the NBA.

Ever since Joe Dumars traded Chauncey away and plunged the Pistons head-first into a septic tank, I have been searching for a new team to root for. I briefly entertained flings with the Bucks and Grizzlies and the Thunder, and early this season I was pretty excited about the Clippers. But I believe I have settled with a new love interest, and it may surprise you.

The Minnesota Timberwolves.

Yeah, they haven't been good since KG left 4 years ago, and yeah they were never really good before that. But I love Kevin Love (the hero of my fantasy team), I love rookie Derrick Williams, and I love Ricky Rubio. The supporting cast has all sorts of great characters - JJ Barea, Luke Ridnour, Michael Beasely, assistant coach Bill Laimbeer, and of course, Darko!

So that's my note about the NBA. Of course, my main routing interest is still the same: anybody but the Heat. Also, don't look now but with a new coach and a new GM the Pistons might be able to rebuild 2 or 3 years from now. They have two decent building blocks with Knight and Monroe. If they can keep those guys, keep Jerebko, and draft a mega-stud player to build around, they can compete in a few years. So basically, we need a top 3 pick and we need to not screw the pick up.

Back to the NFL.

The Lions are officially slotted as pick #23 on the Draft board, which means I've already begun the analysis process. Last year at pick #14 it was significantly later than we are used to picking. But #23 is crazy. I don't know how to function in a world where Detroit doesn't get a top 20 prospect. All this fantastic talent is leaving the silly world of college football and entering the NFL, and Detroit doesn't get any of it. Oh the woes of being a playoff team.

Making things worse for Detroit, two of the top QB prospects (Matt Barkley and Landry Jones) decided to stay in school for another year, presumably so they can battle for the right to be taken #1 in 2013. That means two less QBs will be taken in the top 20, which means two less OT/DE/LB/CBs will be available.

Of course, Mayhew and Lewand and Schwartz have made it clear that Detroit doesn't draft for need. Perhaps that's why Nick Fairley was the least effective rookie taken in the first round of 2011. Because he was coming off the freaking bench. Maybe this year the Lions will address any one of the 6 glaring positions of need (the four I mentioned, plus center and safety) with their first round pick, but based on history, we're more likely to take a backup QB or another freaking defensive tackle.

I'm starting to chart out a mock draft for April, but with still a lot left to be determined, I'm not getting ahead of myself. We know the Colts are taking Luck #1, and it will be very interesting to see if Peyton gets traded or retains the starting job. I'd like to see Indy keep him, but he's owed something like $28 million next year, so trading him is certainly sensible.

Teams that definitely need a new quarterback include the Redskins and Seahawks, but teams that aren't completely sold on their current starter will be a much longer list: Jets, Browns, Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars, Cardinals, Rams, Vikings, Bucs, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, 49ers, Titans ...

Really, less than half of the league (15 teams by my count) are happy with their current starting quarterback. Those teams are, in descending order, the Saints, Packers, Pats, Lions, Panthers, Steelers, Giants, Chargers, Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles, Texans, Falcons, Ravens, and Bears. And you could argue that 4 or 5 of those guys are replaceable if the right situation (namely, Peyton) was available.

So while only a few teams are in the Peyton market, probably upwards of 12 teams are in the market for the 2nd quarterback in the NFL Draft, Robert Griffin III. A lot of pundits think Griffin will be taken 2nd overall, not by the Rams, but by the highest bidder. The Browns (4th pick) stand to land Griffin if he drops, but with teams jockeying for position to move ahead of Cleveland, Cleveland might just want to move ahead of themselves. They have the most picks to make an offer that St. Louis can't deny.

However, the #2 prospect after Andrew Luck is a once-in-a-decade left tackle, Matt Kalil from USC. Kalil is considered a clone of Jake Long or Joe Thomas, and will probably be one of the best LTs in the NFL within one season. The Rams would be smart to ignore trade offers and take Kalil, which would give the Vikings (pick 3) the chance to hold an auction and amass picks.

That's what I see happening right now. I don't think St. Louis wants to trade out of pick #2 and lose the chance at Kalil. But there isn't a clear #3 prospect for the Vikings to take ... CB Claiborne from LSU or WR Blackmon from OSU are more of mid-first round pick type of talent. The Vikings very well might trade out of the 3 spot to the highest bidder, and end up addressing needs later in the draft, probably getting a future 1st rounder as well.

With the new rules of the CBA, teams actually won't be afraid to trade up into the top 5. Paying a top 5 pick is no longer a death sentence; it's actually the best way to rebuild. So expect the Robert Griffin bonanza to be crazy and teams to offer an arm, leg and a kidney to obtain his services. Whether he'll succeed in the NFL or not is a different story. I'm not convinced. Of course that's what I said about Cam Newton....

Anyway, my hope is the Lions will play it smart, address a need on the O-line or the defense, not do anything cute (like the stupid Pettigrew pick a few years ago), and get their asses back in the playoffs next year. Before the Draft, the key is going to be re-signing key players, namely Avril and Tulloch. We might not be able to afford both guys, so Tulloch is more vital in my mind than Avril, because we have no depth at linebacker.

That's all for now.

peace

Playoff Picks - Round 1

2012-01-06T16:20:00.002-05:00

These are going to be insanely quick .... sorry in advance ...

Bengals (9-7) @ Texans (10-6)
Line: HOU by 2.5

Foster and the Texans D are the difference. Houston 23-16.

Lions (10-6) @ Saints (13-3)
Line: NO by 10.5

I've gotta at least take the points. I honestly believe the Lions have a chance. But I will say Saints 41-37.

Falcons (10-6) @ Giants (9-7)
Line: NYG by 3

Matt Ryan outside, no thanks. Giants 27-14.

Steelers (12-4) @ Broncos (8-8)
Line: PIT by 9

This line is fifteen points too low. Steelers 35-0. Sorry Tebow.

GO LIONS.

week 17 picks

2011-12-27T10:32:00.005-05:00

Despite a blistering 13-3 week straight-up, I managed to go just 6-9-1 against the spread.

Finished the regular season 131-125-10 ATS and 173-83 straight-up.

Some of these games are for all the marbles; others are for no marbles at all. Week 17 is usually the toughest week to pick. For many players, it's a glorified scrimmage. But for many other players (and coaches), it's a last-ditch effort to keep a job.

No Thursday games, no Monday games. Let's start with the worthless games and get to the good stuff last.

Redskins (5-10) @ Eagles (7-8)
Predicted Line: PHI by 7
Actual Line: PHI by 9

Last week was vintage Mike Shanahan. Trying once again to prove that he can squeeze productivity out of any random running back, Shanny gave 21 touches to never-before-heard-of rookie Evan Royster, who previously had just 20 total touches on the season. Ryan Torain was healthy, but like I've said before, Shanahan thinks he's coaching fantasy football, so he just plays whoever he wants.

Royster predictably did great (132 yards), but the Redskins lost at home to a 2-12 Vikings team that was without Adrian Peterson. Soo ... I guess we should congratulate Shanahan on getting what he wanted (100 yards for a guy named Royster), despite losing a game he definitely should have won. And somehow, I seem to be the only one who thinks Shanahan should be fired...?

The Eagles will probably win, but 9 points is a lot to ask for. I'll go Philly 27-20.

Bears (7-8) @ Vikings (3-12)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2
Actual Line: Pick Em

Even before the Bears were officially eliminated, this game was going to be Josh McCown against Joe Webb, with AP and Forte out. Yikes.

The Bears are 0-4 since losing Cutler and Forte, while the Vikings have had a chance to win in three of their last four. A Minnesota win combined with losses by Tampa, Cleveland and/or Jacksonville could move the Vikings draft position from 3rd to 5th or 6th. That would be sweet!

I guess I'll take the home team. No idea what to expect in this battle for worthlessness. Vikings by 3.

Seahawks (7-8) @ Cardinals (7-8)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 2
Actual Line: ARZ by 3

Of all the meaningless games, this is the worst. Both teams were statistically alive last week; both teams are dead now. Nothing matters in this game - not draft order, not coach's futures, nothing. So assuming everybody plays relatively hard, I think the better team is probably Arizona by a hair, so I'll take them 24-20.

Lions (10-5) @ Packers (14-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: DET by 1

This game is technically meaningless, as both teams are playoff-bound. Green Bay has locked up the #1 seed, and will probably sit Rodgers on the bench for at least the second half. Detroit is playing for a shot at the 5th seed (and a game against the NFC East winner, which I'm not convinced is better than playing San Fran), but more importantly, we're playing for momentum going into the playoffs. Granted, beating up on Matt Flynn might not be too extraordinary, but 11-5 would sound better than 10-6. I think Detroit probably wins by 4ish.

*EDIT
I am retarted. I just realized that the 6 seed in the NFC will be playing New Orleans, not San Francisco. Both teams are 12-3 and San Fran has the tiebreaker. The only way San Fran loses the bye is if they lose to St. Louis, which is simply not happening. So in other words, Detroit desperately NEEDS to win this game, to avoid playing the red hot Saints and Drew Freaking Brees. Holy crap, why didn't I realize that earlier?

Colts (2-13) @ Jaguars (4-11)
Predicted Line: JAC by 4
Actual Line: JAC by 4

All that 'Suck for Luck' stuff actually lived up to the hype. This game is huge. If Indy wins, they'll be picking #2, assuming the Rams lose to San Francisco, which they will. That means Indy gets USC left tackle Matt Kalil to protect Peyton Manning next year (and a great building block for the future), and it means the Rams get the #1 pick and will auction it off to the highest bidder, which could be any of 10 or 15 teams. This game is huge.

If I'm a Colts player, I'd be going all out, because I'd rather pick #2 and avoid the media circus. If I'm a Jags player, I'm tanking, going for a top 4 pick. No clue how it might play out, with a horrendous quarterback matchup and two absymal coaches, but I guess I'll take the points and say Jags by 3.

Bucs (4-11) @ Falcons (9-6)
Predicted Line: ATL by 10.5
Actual Line: ATL by 14

Atlanta clinched the playoffs with losses by Seattle, Arizona and Chicago, but a win here combined with a Detroit loss would give them the 5 seed, so they'll be trying like crazy. The last thing they want is a rematch against Brees in the first round of the playoffs. For Tampa, not so much trying. They still have a shot at a top 5 pick in the Draft. So I will take Atlanta to cover the gigantic spread, 27-10.

49ers (12-3) @ Rams (2-13)
Predicted Line: SF by 9
Actual Line: SF by 10.5

With the Saints winning on Monday night and moving to 12-3, the Niners will be forced to actually play this game in order to clinch a bye. The 49ers will win, of course, but it might be hard for them to fully focus on this game knowing that the playoffs are right around the corner. Besides, they know they can beat the Rams giving only half an effort. Heck, the Rams are torn between starting Kellen Clemens and Tom Bradstater. But winning big on the road isn't always easy, and the Rams might be compelled to try to save some pride or maybe to avoid having the #1 pick circus. Either way, I'll take the points. I'll say Niners by 10.

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (12-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 9.5
Actual Line: NO by 9.5

Brees broke the single-season passing yards record last night. Newton broke the rookie passing yards record last week. Newton has the most rushing TDs ever for a quarterback, and Brees is a few games away from the record for most consecutive games with a TD pass. Newton will win ROY, and Brees actually created an amazingly close MVP battle with Rodgers.

Sucks to be Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman in that division.

Both of these teams are extremely hot right now, and I've been picking (and winning) with the Saints for a few weeks in a row. But I'm taking the Panthers here for two reasons:
1. Cam is the backdoor master;
2. But mainly, because the Saints will be scoreboard-watching, and if the SF-STL game is totally out of hand early, the Saints will have nothing to play for. I expect that'll happen, and Brees might sit out the 4th, allowing Newton to stage a comeback and possibly win outright.

I'll say Saints by a score of 30-27.

Titans (8-7) @ Texans (10-5)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3

Houston is locked in to the 3 seed and can sit their starters if they choose, while the Titans are playing for a chance at the playoffs (if the Jets and Bengals lose). Sure would make sense to take Tennessee. I guess I won't overthink it. Titans 21-13.

Jets (8-7) @ Dolphins (5-10)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 1.5

The Jets need to win to stay alive, and they also need the Bengals and Titans to lose. Miami continues to play hard, but they'll be without Jake Long in this contest. I'll take New York by 3.

Bills (6-9) @ Pats (12-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 12.5
Actual Line: NE by 11.5

New England simply needs a win and they've secured the #1 pick. Pretty amazing for a team with horrendous defense. I'm taking New England here because the Bills beat the Pats back in week 3, and Brady has made a career out of avenging losses. Plus, Brady needs 200ish yards to co-break Marino's record, and he probably wants 4 touchdowns to get him to the 40 plateau. This just seems like a classic 'run up the score' game. Pats 48-20.

Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (4-11)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 7

Roethlisberger is questionable but should play, at least for the first half. The Steelers will be scoreboard-watching, because the Ravens also play at 4:15 and if they go up big early on the Bengals, the Steelers won't have any reason to play. But if Baltimore is in a close game, Pittsburgh will demolish the Browns, and that's what I expect to happen. Stellers 27-6.

Ravens (11-4) @ Bengals (9-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 4.5
Actual Line: BAL by 2.5

Huge game #1.

If Cincy wins, they play Houston in the playoffs and Baltimore gets the dreaded 5 seed and has to travel to either Denver or Oakland, while Pittsburgh gets a bye, a home game, and a really, really good chance at the Super Bowl. Yuck.

If Baltimore wins, Cincy still has a chance at the playoffs if they get losses from the Jets, Titans, and either Raiders or Broncos.

This is a really tough call. I'm taking Baltimore, 23-21.

Chargers (7-8) @ Raiders (8-7)
Predicted Line: OAK by 4
Actual Line: OAK by 3

Chargers' season is over; Raiders make the playoffs with a win and a Denver loss, or a win and losses by the Bengals and Titans. Gonna take the Chargers, 22-16.

Chiefs (6-9) @ Tebows (8-7)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 3

KYLE ORTON REVENGE GAME!!
Chiefs 23-20 in OT.

So to recap the AFC,
Broncos AND Raiders lose, Denver takes the division at 8-8 and will host the Steelers in the playoffs, while Tennessee gets the other Wildcard spot and will play at Houston in a week 17 rematch.

Then in round 2 of the AFC playoffs, New England gets an easy win against either Houston or Tennessee, while Pittsburgh plays at Baltimore in the annual Ravens-Steelers playoff matchup.

So just like I said a month ago, the AFC is a three-team conference.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Giants (8-7)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 3

Assuming Detroit beats the Packers' backups, this Sunday night matchup will determine who Detroit plays in the first round. Both fan bases are completely unconfident in their underperforming and mistake-prone teams.

Romo is starting with a bad finger, Felix is starting with a bad hamstring, while the Giants will be without Umenyiora, Manningham, and Ballard. It's very likely that the losing coach will be fired and the losing quarterback will be berated, while the winners of this game will see their demise postponed at least 2 weeks, and then the firing and berating will commence. These are two of the most unclutch franchises in sports.

I see this game coming down to the final possession, and that usually means it's a coin flip. But if I have to pick which quarterback is more likely to lead his team to a 4th quarter win, I've gotta say Eli. Giants 31-27.

Go Lions.

Week 16 Picks

2011-12-21T08:38:00.005-05:00

this week:
9-6-1 against the spread
9-7 straight up

season:
125-106-9 ATS (54.1%)
160-80 SU (66.6%)

Lions clinched the freaking playoffs!

Texans (10-4) @ Colts (1-13) - Thursday
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 5.5

This line is a solid 4 points lower than where it should be, thanks to the Colts unexpected win last week against Tennessee. Now it's all the rage to talk about the Colts possibly losing the #1 pick to St. Louis. It sounds cool, but if you do the number-crunching it's actually pretty much impossible. In order for that to happen, the Colts would have to win not only this game, but the next game as well. That would be an 0-13 team winning 3 straight with Dan Orlovsky. Really??

What the guys at ESPN don't want to mention is that in the event of a three-way tie at 2-14, Indy would hold the tie-breaker over St. Louis and Minnesota (strength of schedule), and would get the #1 pick regardless. So unless Indy actually somehow wins this game, let's put off the talk about the Rams deciding whether to draft Luck.

Despite the trend of home teams dominating on Thursdays, I think Houston is going to bounce back with a vengeance. Their defense is way better than people realize. And Indy isn't going to get another fluky 80 yard run from Donald Brown. I'll take the Texans by 14.

Lions (9-5) @ Chargers (7-7) - 4:15pm
Predicted Line: DET by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 2.5

Let's just jump right into it. I have absolutely no confidence in this game, having watched Phillip Rivers destroy the Ravens D last week. He's playing incredibly right now, with a QB rating of 132 over the last 3 weeks. That's 7 TDs, 0 picks, a 75% completion percentage, and one of those games was against the league's best defense. With the way Detroit's defense looked last week, overpursuing and missing tackles and giving up big plays to chumps like Marcel Reese and Darius Heyward-Bey, I don't have any idea how we'll stop Rivers and Vincent Jackson and Gates and Floyd. On top of that, Gunther Cunningham's decision to employ the increasingly popular but never effective 'wide nine' is completely insane, because our pass rush hasn't actually improved, but now teams are running the ball all over us with ease.

Hopefully Stafford and Calvin can pull off another miracle comeback, but I don't have good feelings about this one. San Diego is probably the one team I least want to play against this week. I'm going to have to say Bolts win 33-26.

So with that, let's look at the Lions' playoff chances. First off, I'm going to assume we lose week 17 in Lambeau, just to make this simpler.

-Atlanta could also lose 2 straight and be 9-7, but they beat us head-to-head, so they own that tiebreaker.

-Chicago could win two straight and also be 9-7; the head-to-head is a tie, but then Chicago wins the divisional record tiebreaker.

-In the NFC East, a 9-7 split between Dallas and the Giants is possible, in which case New York has the tiebreaker over Dallas and forces Dallas to be the Wildcard option, and we beat Dallas head-to-head so we own that tiebreaker.

-In the NFC West, Arizona or Seattle could finish 9-7, but not both because they play each other week 17. If Arizona did, we'd own the tiebreaker for record against common opponents; if Seattle did, they'd beat us for strength of victory tiebreaker.

So, even if the Lions lose 2 straight, the only way we could NOT make the playoffs would be if either Chicago or Seattle won their last two games. At least I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

But THEN ... there are some three-team tiebreakers in case Detroit is tied with two teams at 9-7, and in those scenarios, we lose to Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Seattle, but beat Arizona. So, we could potentially be screwed if that happens.

So we need Chicago, Seattle, Arizona, Dallas and the Giants to all lose, just to be safe.

Giants (7-7) @ Jets (8-6)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: NYJ by 3

Two bumbling, perennially-disappointing franchises with mistake-prone QBs and surprisingly leaky defenses. Both have their share of elite players on both sides of the ball, but both make too many mistakes and play too inconsistently to be anything other than first-round fodder. This game is huge for both teams, and really for the entire league. Despite Rex Ryan's trash talk tirade, I see the Giants as the better team, with the better coach and the significantly better quarterback. Sure, Revis will shut down Nicks and the Giants are really struggling to stop the run ... but I just don't feel good about Mark Sanchez giving 3 points on a neutral-field to a good team. I'll take Giants by 3.

Vikings (2-12) @ Redskins (5-9)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 6.5

With Peterson finally healthy, the Vikings are poised to win this game big. Washington's only perceivable strength is the pass rush, and a great pass rush is neutralized by a great running back. Ponder has been struggling lately, but this is his game to get back on track against 8-in-the-box. Rex Grossman should be able to score some points on the awful Vikings back seven, but I expect the Vikings to grind it out, dominate time of possession, and win easily, 26-16.

Bucs (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)
Predicted Line: CAR by 5
Actual Line: CAR by 7.5

Remember when the Bucs upset the Saints to move into a tie atop the division at 4-2? Yikes. They have since managed to lose 8 straight games, none of which has been closer than 6 points. Other than Gerald McCoy, the Bucs haven't really lost any key players to injuries, so it's safe to say they really are as bad as their record indicates. Raheem Morris went from a rising star to a guy who could be coordinating in the NCAA soon.

The Panthers are headed in the other direction. This is a lot of points, but I just don't see Tampa putting forth much effort this late in the season. I'll say Panthers by at least 14.

Rams (2-12) @ Steelers (10-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 13.5 (Roethlisberger might not play)
Actual Line: None

The line was set at 16.5 for a couple days, but then removed. I'm going to use that line, because my hunch is that Ben will play, not because the Steelers need him to beat the Rams, but because they want to enter the playoffs playing their best, not limping. With Kellen Clemens starting for the Rams, it sure makes sense to take the favorites and the large spread. But the Steelers are 0-4 trying to cover huge spreads this year; the reality is, they just don't have a killer offense and the defense is a slower, older version of its prior self, and with more holes. Plus, their best O-lineman is out. So I'll take the points. Why not. Pittsburgh 27-13.

Raiders (7-7) @ Chiefs (6-8)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 2.5

Oakland should be demoralized after that home loss to Detroit, while KC is coming off a thrilling win against the 13-0 Packers. The Chiefs love playing for Romeo Crennel (or are they just happy that they don't have to play for Todd Haley anymore?), and Kyle Orton executed a wonderful "Eff you" to the entire league last week. It should continue. Chiefs 23-20. KC still alive for the division if Denver loses ...

Broncos (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3.5
Actual Line: DEN by 3

I actually want to bet on a push, because the chances of Denver winning by 3 are more likely than any other result. But I guess I'll take the points and say Tebow wins by 2.

Jags (4-10) @ Titans (7-7)
Predicted Line: TEN by 6.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7

Gonna take the points and say Titans by 3.

Cardinals (7-7) @ Bengals (8-6)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 4

This should be another good game and I'll take the points. In fact, I'm gonna take the Cards straight up. Cincy hasn't beat a decent team in like 6 weeks, and the best team they've beat this year was probably Tennessee. The Cardinals have beat San Fran, Dallas, Philly, Carolina .... So I'll take Arizona by 3.

Wait, John Skelton on the road? ... Bah, never mind, I'll go Bengals by 3.

Dolphins (5-9) @ Pats (11-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 10.5
Actual Line: NE by 9.5

With the Pats' terrible defense and the inspired play of Matt Moore, I'll take the points and say New England by just 7.

Browns (4-10) @ Ravens (10-4)
Predicted Line: BAL by 12.5
Actual Line: BAL by 12.5

So far I've taken 8 underdogs and only 3 favorites; I actually have 5 underdogs winning straight up. I'm hesitatant to take the points again, but I always like fiesty, scrambly back-up QBs to cover big spreads. Seneca Wallace is a fiend. Ravens by 6.

49ers (11-3) @ Seahawks (7-7)
Predicted Line: SF by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 2

It would be great for Detroit if the Niners win and terminate Seattle's playoff chances. However if the Lions are going to win one of their next two games and clinch a playoff spot, I'd rather see the Niners lose, because the thought of playing Drew Brees in the first round of the playoffs makes me want to eat tin foil.

Regardless of what I want to happen, San Fran's great front 7 is going up against one of the hottest running backs in Marshawn Lynch, and playing in always-crazy Seattle (formerly Qwest Field, now called CenturyOne or something). And don't look now, but Tarvaris Jackson has put together 3 straight solid games, winning by scores of 31-14, 30-13, and 38-14.

I'm not suggesting the Niners will overlook the Seahawks the way they overlooked the Cardinals two weeks ago and lost. I simply think Seattle can beat anybody at home, so I'll take the underdog yet again, 23-20.

Eagles (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 1.5

Lots of entangling playoff situations ... but the simple version is: Philly needs to win to stay alive, whereas Dallas needs to win next week to have a chance, and this game is pretty much meaningless for them.

The Giants play the early game, and if they win, the Eagles are out, but if they lose, the Cowboys need to win this game to lock up the playoffs, otherwise next week's NYG-DAL game would determine the division winner, unless Philly wins next week against the Jets, in which case Philly wins the division. So in other words, both teams need to win this game, but both teams will be eagerly watching the Giants game too.

I'm not a big fan of Vick this year, especially on the road, so I'll take the home team who is strangely favored by only 1.5. How about Cowboys 33-30.

Bears (7-7) @ Packers (13-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5
Actual Line: GB by 13

Josh McCown will reportedly start for Chicago instead of Caleb Hanie. It's tempting to think Green Bay will be in trouble after the "blueprint to beat Rodgers" was discovered, plus the injuries to Jennings, Nick Collins, and two offensive lineman ... but come on, Josh McCown against Aaron Rodgers, in Lambeau? Pack by 10.

Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (11-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 7
Actual Line: NO by 6.5

The Saints are way too hot for me to pick against them right now. Brees needs 306 yards to break the single-season yardage record, and he'll do that in this game. New Orleans 34-24.

Go Lions!

NBA Preview: Haves and Have-nots

2011-12-20T09:22:00.003-05:00

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this, because I'm not sure anybody cares. But I care enough to at least get some predictions written down. Let's start in the Eastern Conference. Remember, it's a 66-game season, crammed into 120 days.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat - They still have big fat nothings from the point guard and center positions, but the addition of Shane Battier is exactly what Miami needed: an unselfish hustle player, an elite defender, and a solid outside shooter. With LBJ and Wade sharing the ball and attacking the rim, the Heat have just enough shooters (Chalmers, Bosh, Battier, James Jones) to take full advantage. Defensively, they'll probably be the NBA's best team.

Potential downfall: aside from LeBron's manic desire to be loved which somehow caused him to be hated, and LeBron's allergicness to fourth quarters, there is still the tumultuous head coaching situation. Erik Spoelstra is in way over his head and all his players know it. But I still have the Heat going 53-13 for the #1 seed.

Chicago Bulls - Led by MVP Derrick Rose, last year's #1 seed was ousted from the Eastern Conference Finals in 5 relatively easy games by the Heat. Instead of making a big move for Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler, the Bulls picked up past-his-prime Rip Hamilton, and not much else. They don't get any scoring from the center or the 2-guard, and we can't expect much from Boozer anymore either.

Cakewalk: last year the Bulls won the Central Division by 25 games. It's the least competitive division in basketball or any sport for that matter. So they can suffer lots of injuries, all shoot left-handed for the entire month of February, let Rose skip 15 games to sail around the world, whatever they want, and they'll still win the division easily. I'll say 46-20, which barely earns them the #2 seed.

New York Knicks - Other than Chris Paul to the Clippers, the Knicks pulled off the biggest move of the offseason so far, obtaining Tyson Chandler in free agency, outbidding at least 10 other teams who wanted him. Chandler gives the Knicks exactly what they needed: defense. With Melo, Amare and Chandler the Knicks have by the far the league's best frontcourt, and all they need is for the guards (Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, rookie Iman Shumpert) to not mess things up.

Do they have what it takes to beat the Heat? That will be the question of the year for the entire league, but the Knicks may be the best-suited to upset Miami in the playoffs. Miami is too small to guard New York's bigs. If Amare replicates the amazing season he had last year (25 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 blocks), New York will stand the best chance of keeping Miami out of the Finals. Regular season record: 45-21.

Boston Celtics - This is where it gets ugly. The NBA this season, especially in the East, is all about disparity. The three top teams (all located in marquee cities, not coincidentally) are loaded with superstars, depth, defense ... while the rest of the conference is inferior and uncompetitive, and they know it. David Stern has tried to emulate the NFL and become a parity-driven league, but he's also tried to maximize revenue and load the big cities with big stars and make the NBA internationally popular. Unfortunately, you can't succeed at both.

Boston's "Big Three" is now a thing of the past, as Rajon Rondo is their best player by a wide margin. Rondo was dangled in trade rumors for months and is now disgruntled, and the losses of Perkins and Glen Davis have depleted Boston's depth in the paint. Jeff Green hasn't panned out, Jermaine O'Neal is awful, and the formerly great trio now averages 35 years of age.

One More Shot: Does the Celtics aged roster have enough in the tank for one last hurrah? Or will they start out slow and overreact by dealing Allen and/or Rondo to a contender for future picks and young players? I think the latter will happen, and the Celts will still manage to finish 40-26 for the #4 seed.

Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks continue their quest to finish with the 5th seed as many times as possible in a single decade. Good enough to always make the playoffs, never good enough to sniff a Conference Finals. By locking their lynchpin players (Johnson, Smith, Horford) down for long-deals, they'll be in the middle of the playoff pack once again. Adding Tracy McGrady and losing Jamal Crawford drops them a step backward. 39-27 gives them a 59% winning percentage, right on pace with the past several years.

Any Chance: could this be the year that Atlanta finally makes a leap into serious title contention? Uh ... nope...

Orlando Magic - The big enigma for obvious reasons. Dwight Howard could be traded before I finish this sentence, or he could retire as a member of the Magic in 10 years. Most likely, he'll play at least some games for Orlando this year, maybe in a hostage-esque situation like Carmelo last year. (You know I'm leaving, so you may as well try to get some value for me). Orlando is committed to dumping Hedo Turkoglu's contract to whoever takes Howard, which makes him considerably less attractive. The Lakers, Nets, Bulls, Mavericks, Rockets ... heck pretty much every team is a factor. But Dwight wants to be in a big market, so it'll probably be either New Jersey or LA or maybe Chicago if he wants to take less money and win titles.

Life Without Dwight: Orlando will be looking to add at least 3 or 4 first-round picks for Howard as well as create some serious cap space and add a couple young building blocks. He's the best center in the NBA by a mile and could end up with a career in the Hakeem-Shaq echelon. With Jameer, J-Rich, Big Baby and Ryan Anderson, the Magic should be able to make the playoffs even without Howard. The East is a very sad conference. I'll say 36-30 for the Magic, with Howard playing in the first 10ish games.

New Jersey - Moving to Brooklyn. Owned by a Russian billionaire who apsires to be President of Russia. Part-owned by Jay Z. Superstar point guard in Deron Williams. New arena, excited new fans. Aaaand ... Brook Lopez is their second best player. Ugh.

The Nets have everything in place to be an elite franchise, except for the players. They missed out on Wade, LeBron and Carmelo. They pulled off a nice trade for D-Williams, who then left for Turkey, but came back. But now the Nets need to pry Dwight Howard from Orlando somehow, otherwise they're never getting past the first round. I'm going to say they go 35-31 for the 7th seed. Unless they get Dwight early in the season, in which case they'll finish 3rd or 4th and be a scary playoff matchup.

*

From here on out, there is a list of 8 teams that absolutely do not deserve to be in the playoffs. It's really just a fight for which of these 8 doldrums gets to be swept by the Heat. This is why the title of this blog is 'Haves and Have-nots.'

Milwaukee, Indiana, Washington and Philly are the only teams that seem to be building towards anything remotely promising; of those, John Wall could make a superstar leap and bring Washington into relevancy.

Cleveland, Toronto, Charlotte, and Detroit are just completely worthless, and will be going through the motions as bottom dwellars. It's amazing to think that just 6 years ago, one of those teams went to consecutive NBA Finals and had the best starting 5 in basketball. I have all of these teams 15 games below .500, and it doesn't make any difference who finishes with what record because of the stupid ping-pong ball lottery. But for the record, Detroit will finish the year with the worst record in the NBA, 11-55.

Western Conference

So much for keeping this short. How about this:

1 seed - Dallas
2 seed - Clippers
3 seed - OKC
4 seed - Memphis
5 seed - Lakers
6 seed - Spurs
7 seed - Nuggets
8 seed - Blazers

Playoffs ... blah blah blah, Chris Paul alley-oop to Blake Griffin, Spurs are dead, Kobe is pissed, Heat over OKC in 6. Good for you LeBron, you a-hole.

Week Fifteen Picks

2011-12-14T09:53:00.006-05:00

Week 15 :
8-7-1 ATS
10-6 SU

Season:
116-100-8
151-73

Sitting at 108-93-7 going into week 15 (a 53.7% percentage), my goal is an average of 10-6 over the next three weeks, which would get me above 55% by the end of the season. Fortunately, this week of games looks relatively easy. Here are the week 15 picks, but first a quick recap of the last week:

-Todd Haley and Tony Sparano fired; Crennel and McDaniels are rumored replacements in KC; get ready to hear the names Gruden, Dungy, and Cowher a billion times each; at least 3 more head coaches will be fired by the end of the year, the most deserving of which is Jim Caldwell; DeMarco Murray and Greg Jennings are out for the rest of the regular season; James Harrison suspended 1 game for helmet-to-helmeting Colt McCoy; Elway voices approval of Tebow for the first time; Houston clinches their first postseason berth ever, thus removing the ugly stigma of being the only franchise in major American sports to have never played in a playoff game; Marshawn Lynch has become a legitimate top 10 running back in the NFL; DeSean Jackson is almost certainly not going to be on the Eagles next year; all 4 Wildcard spots are up for grabs and unexpected teams (Seattle, San Diego, Philly) are still alive; only 3 divisions are still up for grabs, and they're neck-and-neck (that's the AFC South, AFC West, and NFC East); Packers going for 16-0 and the only remaining challenge will be the Lions (week 17); Colts going for 0-16 and the only winnable game is Jacksonville (week 17); Vikings and Rams fighting for the #2 pick in the Draft (Mall Kalil); the Bucs and Bills, both promising young teams, have both lost 6 straight thanks to a myriad of injuries; lots of teams are heading into the playoffs on big winning streaks: Pats and Saints (5 straight wins); Ravens and Steelers (4 straight); Broncos (6 straight); Texans (7 straight); and of course the Packers (18 straight). And lastly, get ready to hear the names Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in the same sentence about 600 trillion times between now and April.
My thoughts right now on the Colts #1 pick:
-What they should do: trade the pick to Miami for their 1st, 2nd, 4th, next year's 1st and 3rd, a conditional 1st and 3rd in 2013, and a stud like Cameron Wake or Vontae Davis; keep Peyton, let him retire a Colt. Use the picks to bolster the D and give Peyton a stud playmaker. Have a great shot at winning a Super Bowl in the next 4 years, and then draft a new franchise QB four years from now, with a solid supporting cast of young quality players.
-What they will do: trade Peyton to either KC or San Fran for a 1st and 3rd and a conditional 2nd next year; draft Luck; go 5-11 in 2012 thanks to a still terrible defense; slowly improve the defense over the next few years; draft an offensive tackle and/or a receiver early in 2013.

Either way, I think Jim Caldwell needs to be fired, and I think Andrew Luck will win a Super Bowl by 2018. It's a good situation for the Colts no matter how they choose to act.

Week 15 picks:

Jags (4-9) @ Falcons (8-5) - Thursday
Predicted Line: ATL by 8.5
Actual Line: ATL by 11

I thought this line would be lower after Jacksonville put a 41-14 whupping on the Bucs last week. Jones-Drew played his best game of the year, and the defense completely dominated, something we've seen a few times this year. But Matt Ryan, who has struggled mightily at times this year, took advantage of an awful Panthers D and played perhaps his best game of the year as well.

The reasons to pick Atlanta -11 are plentiful and obvious: they have more to play for (a win would almost guarantee them the playoffs); home teams tend to dominate on Thursdays; Matt Ryan is waaaay better at home than on the road; Jacksonville leads the NFL with 27 players on IR; Blaine Gabbert is simply atrocious (50.3% completion percentage, 5.40 YPA, 65.3 passer rating); the Jags just fired their head coach 2 weeks ago; Julio Jones just played the best game of his career last week.

All that being said ... I just don't like Matt Ryan this year. And I think the line is a little too high. So I'm going against conventionally wisdom and saying Jacksonville's defense plays better than expected, and Jones-Drew has another decent game, and Falcons win by 6.

Cowboys (7-6) @ Bucs (4-9)
Predicted Line: DAL by 8.5
Actual Line: DAL by 6.5

Bad luck for the Lions: our 4 primary competitiors for the Wildcard play against crap teams (JAC, TB, WAS and SEA) this week. Dallas has lost two straight heartbreakers and now the annual 'Dump the coach and quarterback' discussion has started in Dallas. So predictable. Fortunately for them, Tampa is a wreck right now, Josh Freeman has completely fallen apart, the defense has too many injuries, and worst of all, Raheem Morris's future is in doubt. I've gotta take Dallas, 23-13, but I do think the injury to DeMarco Murray is going to catch up with them and bite them in the butt.

Something to watch for: if Philly wins out (Jets, @Cowboys, Redskins) they will be 8-8 and own the tiebreaker against Dallas; they would also own the tiebreaker against New York if the Giants lose to both the Cowboys (week 17) and Redskins (this week). If that were to happen, all the Eagles would need is for Dallas to lose this game in Tampa, and they (Philly) would be in the playoffs, provided, of course, that they win their next 3 games.

In other words, go Tampa!

Redskins (4-9) @ Giants (7-6)
Predicted Line: NYG by 7
Actual Line: NYG by 7

One of the oddest storylines of this season has been the play of Eli Manning. After years of dopey mediocrity and turnovers, Eli is enjoying by far the best season of his eight-year career, with a career-best in QB rating, completion percentage, and the all-important YPA. In fact, he's thrown for more yards so far (in 13 games) than in any other 16 game season of his career. And are you ready for this: Eli is on pace for 5,000 passing yards this year, something that's only been done twice in NFL history (Marino 84, Brees 08). If he continues at his current pace and finds an extra 30 yards in there somewhere, he'll break the NFL record for passing yards in a season (5,084).

Of course, it's not getting much publicity because Brees is on pace for 5,376 yards, and Brady and Rodgers are on pace for 5,264 and 5,072, respectively. Four guys breaking 5,000 yards in a single-season. Amazing.

All that being said, Eli no longer deserves to be treated like the dopey little brother, and I'm actually taking him seriously from now on. I think Washington is pretty underrated from a talent perspective, but they just suffer from terrible coaching and quarterbacking, and won't be able to compete against the Giants who are the healthiest they've been all season. G-men at home, 28-16.

Packers (13-0) @ Chiefs (5-8)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 13.5

It would be tempting to take the Chiefs to cover, and say something about Greg Jennings's injury. But does anyone really think Greg Jennings is the key to the Packers offense? No offense to Greg Jennings, but I think the drop-off to James Jones and Donald Driver will not affect Rodgers one bit. KC just fired Todd Haley, who deserved it for being an arrogant hothead, and interim-coach Romeo Crennel then demoted Tyler Palko and made Kyle Orton the starter, broken finger and all.

The only way this game is moderately close is a fluky special teams play or a defensive TD for the Chiefs. The odds favor a blowout, Pack 35-17. Rodgers sits out the 4th quarter.

Saints (10-3) @ Vikings (2-11)
Predicted Line: NO by 10.5
Actual Line: NO by 6.5

Three thoughts related to this game:
1. This is the second week in a row the Saints are favored by 4 points fewer than they should be. I took them to cover 3.5 last week and I'll gladly take them this week too. Does Vegas not realize that Drew Brees is currently shattering yardage records?
2. Joe Webb was electrifying last week, but Leslie Frazier wisely opted to stick with Christian Ponder. That's the right move. Webb might give them a better chance of pulling the upset here, but Ponder is the QB of the future, and you don't want to smash his confidence by benching him for a glorified running back.
3. Now that Matt Kalil has officially declared for the Draft, the only way Minnesota doesn't get him with the #2 pick would be if the Vikings win more games than the Rams. Since St. Louis has Pittsburgh and San Fran coming up, and the Vikings have Washington and the Bears, I like the odds of Minnesota picking 3rd instead of 2nd. That could make a huge difference in the future of the NFC North.

Briefly, about Matt Kalil: 6'7", 295 lbs, 22 year old junior, smart guy, good character, hasn't allowed a sack in 2 years, considered the best LT prospect since Jake Long, and maybe even better than Jake Long. So obviously, we don't want the Vikings taking this guy.

Saints 29-14.

Seahawks (6-7) @ Bears (7-6)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3
Actual Line: CHI by 3.5

Since losing Jay Cutler, the Bears are 0-3. That might be all I need to say. Seahawks 21-20.

Dolphins (4-9) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 1

Remember when Buffalo was 4-1 and Miami was 0-5? Who would have guessed that Miami would finish the year with a better record?

Unfortunately, this game is going to be a freaking nightmare. Jake Long isn't expected to play; Buffalo is without 5 or 6 of their best players; and Matt Moore is questionable, which could mean J.P. Losman returns to Buffalo to play against his former team. Talk about hideously intriguing.

I think Moore probably plays, and Miami wins 16-13. But I really have no clue.

Panthers (4-9) @ Texans (10-3)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 6.5

Now that Houston has clinched their first ever playoff berth, I think it's time for a relapse. Carolina 23-13. Does this even constitute as an upset when TJ Yates is the favored quarterback?

Titans (7-6) @ Colts (0-13)
Predicted Line: TEN by 8
Actual Line: TEN by 6.5

With Jake Locker making his first start for the Titans, I have a terrible, terrible feeling that Indy is going to win their first game. I won't pick them straight up, but I will take the points, just in case. Titans 20-16.

Bengals (7-6) @ Rams (2-11)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 6.5

The Colts may be 0-13, but I think the Rams are a worse team. Sam Bradford has had perhaps the most disappointing season I've ever seen from anybody. Bengals by 13.

Lions (8-5) @ Raiders (7-6)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: DET by 1

I've been on the fence about this game week. Lots of injuries, lots of things to consider.

First, the obvious: both teams are right on the postseason-bubble and need this game badly. This is basically, pardon the cliche, a 'playoff game.'

Second, the injuries. Oakland is without McFadden (their best player), and likely without KR/PR/WR Jacoby Ford. Their other starting receiver Denarius Moore is likely to play.

The Lions are expected to have Kevin Smith back, although he'll probably get hurt by halftime. Chris Houston is questioanable, and 'limited practice' is never a good sign. Delmas and Fairley are doubtful, as are Durant, Berry, Wright, are our two backup DEs (Young and Jackson). That's 7, maybe 8, injuries on defense. Holy crap.

Fortunately, Nstompakong Suh will be back in action, which gives the entire defense a much-needed boost. If Houston plays, we've got our 6 best defensive players (Suh, Tulloch, KVB, Avril, Levy, Houston) in action, which at least somewhat negates the loss of Delmas and 5 valuable backups. Make no mistake, if Detroit does make the playoffs and wants any chance whatsoever to upset San Fran or New Orleans in the first round, we'll need every single one of those players healthy. But for a Mcfadden-less Raiders, I think we'll be pretty effective with guys like Bobby Carpenter and John Wendling playing meaningful snaps.

The best part of this game for the Lions is the potentially horrid play of Carson Palmer. At times, Palmer has looked like a poor man's Jay Cutler, throwing into triple coverage, overthrowing open guys, and just making terrible decisions. But at other times, he's looked pretty polished and poised. He's definitely a passer who can be rocked by a good pass rush, which will be the key to this game.

Oakland's offensive line is pretty good, but not impenetrable. Their best lineman is a rookie, LG Stefen Wisniewski. Granted, he's a pretty amazing rookie, but still a rookie. The other guard is a 34 year old dude named Cooper Carlisle who should really struggle against a furious Suh. The tackles are great run-blockers, but mediocre pass-protectors. So another huge key to the game will be shutting down Michael Bush and forcing Palmer to throw. Thank God we have Stephen Tulloch, who should be able to rack up 10+ tackles and keep Bush from doing what he does best - yards after contact.

Without Tulloch, I'd be pretty much giving up hope for this game. I think we often take for granted having one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL.

With all the injuries in the secondary, it's inevitable that Carson will find a wide-open Heyward-Bey or Schielens on some bogus 60 yard score, but Detroit should be able to force 2 or 3 picks and keep Oakland from lighting up the scoreboard.

This sounds stupid, but Oakland's best player might actually be their punter, Shane Lechler. He's by far the best punter in football, having ranked either 1st or 2nd in average-yards-per-punt (a stat I've never mentioned before) every season since 2003. I was watching the Raiders-Bears game a few weeks ago when he booted an 80-yarder over Hester's head. The dude is a punting fiend. Combined with Stefan Logan being pretty much worthless this year, I expect Detroit to have come lousy field position throughout the game.

For Stafford and the offense, we face a slightly-worse-than-average defense which is totally healthy. Oakland was playing some great defense early in the season, particularly against the run, but has been steamrolled in consecutive games, giving up 46 points to the Packers and 34 to Matt Moore and the Dolphins. The loss of Nnamdi Asomugha is finally catching up with their secondary, and Calvin Johnson should have a monster game against CB Chris Johnson. They'll shade him with a safety and a linebacker as most teams do, and that will allow Pettigrew and Burleson and Young some room to work. It's been a pretty successful plan all year and Oakland doesn't figure to be the team that figures out how to solve Megatron.

As long as the O-line gives Stafford some time, we should be able to forego the running game and having lots of success through the air (unless Kevin Smith is actually healthy, in which case let's give him the ball early and often and try to move the chains, because this is seriously going to be a game of field position and 3 and outs will be killer. I'm not undervaluing the importance of having an All Pro punter).

Oakland does have a pretty decent pass rush, ranking 5th in sacks. Kamerion Wimbley is a stud OLB and Richard Seymour is one of the best pass-rushing DTs (because he's really a converted DE), and then there's stud MLB Rolando McClain, who I thought I really liked until the whole handgun-assault-related arrest. It's strange that since McClain's arrest the entire Raiders D has fallen apart. It makes you wonder if the players are thinking "Hey, I'm counting on this guy to fill a gap and make a tackle, and just last week he was holding a gun in some dude's face in Alabama ..."

The Raiders's secondary stinks, but it's not quite as bad as Detroit's. Oakland has the edge in running the ball, stopping the run, defending the pass, and a huge edge on special teams. But Detroit has an edge at QB, a huge edge at receiver, and a decent edge in terms of pass rush. Coaching is pretty much a wash, unless the undisciplined tomfoolery of the Lions shows up again, in which case we don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

It should be a very close game, and I'm scared of a repeat of the 49ers game (getting our asses kicked by field position), but I'm taking the Lions because we've got two superstars and Oakland has none. We also don't have Carson Palmer.

Let's say Lions, 34-24.

Patriots (10-3) @ Broncos (8-5)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 7.5

I mean ... is there anything I can possibly add to the Tim vs. Tom discussion that hasn't already been said 500 times. The only interesting thing I can say about Tebow is that I think Tebow is a great name for a dog, and will probably be the name of my future dog someday.

I'm taking the points, but sort of expecting a massive Pats blowout. For the record I'll say Pats 27-23.

Jets (8-5) @ Eagles (5-8)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: PHI by 3

Are you sick of hearing the phrase "control their own destiny" yet? I am.

This game kicks off at 4:15, and if the Cowboys and Giants both win (which they should), the Eagles will know they are eliminated. If that happens, they'll probably come out flat. But who knows. All I know is, the Jets CTOD, so I'll take them, 29-24.

Browns (4-9) @ Cardinals (6-7)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 6.5

That's the sixth game with a spread of 6.5. Not a very creative week in Vegas apparently.

Colt McCoy was almost killed last week by the lethal James Harrison hit, so we're pretty sure Seneca Wallace will get the start against John Skelton. Whoa, watch out, we might be breaking TV ratings records!

CB Joe Haden should be able to shut down Fitzgerald, and I think that might keep this game close. Plus Seneca is a tricky guy to stop with his speed and ability to extend plays. I like the Cards by 3.

Ravens (10-3) @ Chargers (6-7)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAl by 2.5

Apparently Phillip Rivers no longer sucks. It's a shame he waited until week 12. Even if Rivers has another great game, he's facing an elite defense, and the Ravens O has way more talent than the Bolts' D. Baltimore is way too focused on beating out the Steelers for the bye, and SD isn't focused on much except maybe running Norv Turner out of town. I'll take Baltimore by 13.

Steelers (10-3) @ 49ers (10-3) - Monday night
Predicted Line: SF by 2.5
Actual Line: None

No line because Big Ben is 'questionable.' That's a load of crap. He played last Thursday 45 minutes after almost breaking his ankle, and limped through an entire second half; now he had 10 days to prepare for the most important game of the season and he's going to let Charlie Batch play, guaranteeing the Steelers a loss and solidifying the fact that Pittsburgh will play a road game in the second round of the playoffs instead of a home game? Roethlisberger may be a dirt bag, but he's a competitor, and he wants to get back to the Super Bowl. He's going to play.

Since there's no official line, I'm going to put it at SF by 2.5, and I'm going to take the Niners to win by 3.

That's all ...
Go Lions.

Week 14 stuff

2011-12-06T11:12:00.015-05:00

Started out awful, but nailed most of the late games and ended up 8-8 ATS and 13-3 straight-up, so I'm 141-67 SU and 108-93-7 ATS at this point.... Enormous game at Oakland this week.

Fortunately, the Raiders have fallen into holes of 34-0 and 31-0 in their last two games, so they may not be playing their best football right now. Let's hope that Suh returns with a vengenance and stomps all over Carson Palmer's throwing arm. Week 15 picks will be up soon.

Before we get to the picks, here are some random things I'm thinking about:

1) The Packers remaining schedule. They get Tyler Palko next week, then Caleb Hanie and the Forte-less Bears. Translation: they will incontrovertibly be 15-0 heading into week 17 against Detroit in Lambeau. In other words, Detroit needs to win three straight to make the playoffs. Dammit.

2) Speaking of the Packers, I heard some asshole say that Tim Tebow is now in the MVP discussion. Really? A quarterback who has 75 completions on the entire season? I hate people like that. I don't even remember who it was. Some jerk on the radio. Rodgers has already won the MVP and any discussion to the contrary is a waste of time. For the record, Brees and Brady are 2nd and 3rd, and nobody else deserves mention. It's called the Most Valuable Player, not the Nicest Christian Award.

3) On the topic of year-end awards, let's call it a two-man race between Mike McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh for Coach of the Year. Lots of other candidates (Tomlin, Kubiak, the other Harbaugh), but only two coaches have been consistently great all season. I'd give it to Harbaugh for doing so much with less talent, but if the Pack go 16-0 McCarthy certainly deserves it. I'll be fine either way. Just as long as Rex Ryan doesn't somehow take it.

4) Speaking of stupid coaches, what are the odds that Rob Ryan is a head coach next year in the NFL? Gotta be at least 90% right? That guy gets more TV time than any coordinator in the league. I also heard a pretty solid rumor that Mike Martz is interested in head coaching again and might head to the NCAA. Good riddance.

5) So what coaches can we expect to be fired this offseason? Jack Del Rio was long-deserving of the boot, and Jim Caldwell should have been fired 7 weeks ago. Steve Spagnuolo has done a terrible job with the Rams and is probably better suited as a D-coordinator. Todd Haley is in trouble in KC. Mike Shanahan is the worst coach in NFL history. And then there's the two big question marks: Andy Reid and Norv Turner. Both guys took ultratalented teams and wildly underperformed. They could both be fired, but my hunch is they both get one more year. Oh, and then there's Tony Sparano, who might have saved his job in Miami with a 4th win in 5 games.

6) The defensive MVP battle is wide open right now, unlike the offensive MVP. There are at least 6 deserving candidates. Jared Allen (14.5 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (15 sacks) are this year's best pass rushers, while Woodson and Revis belong on the ballot once again. Polamalu has been too nicked-up, and the Ravens have about 5 elite defenders who all cancel each other out, although you could make a decent case for Terrell Suggs. Rookie Von Miller also belongs on the ballot, as does Clay Matthews, and Houston's Connor Barwin. But my vote goes to Patrick Willis, the cornerstone of San Fran's incredible defense. In his 5-year career, Willis has amassed an incredible 530 solo tackles, more than anyone else over that span.

Willis's numbers stack up neatly with the best middle linebacker of all time, Ray Lewis, who had 586 solo tackles after 5 seasons. Lewis won his first D-MVP in his 5th season, and I think Willis will do the same.

Here's my D-MVP ballot:
1. Patrick Willis
2. DeMarcus Ware
3. Jared Allen
4. Darelle Revis
5. Von Miller
6. Connor Barwin
7. Charles Woodson
8. Clay Matthews

7) Everybody hates the BCS, and finally people aren't afraid to say it. Boise State's head coach has been respectfully applauding the retarted system for years, and finally had enough. After his team was sentenced to play in the ShitFarm Bowl against Aquinas College, he spoke up and basically said what everybody's thinking: "This sucks. Change the dang system."

8) As much as I hate college football, I am excited about two things: the Draft, and the Heisman. Both are totally unpredictable this year. Andrew Luck will go #1 overall, and that's pretty much the only thing we know.

Over the last decade, I don't think the Heisman has been a surprise once; it's usually decided by November. But this year, it's a three-man race between Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Trent Richardson. Any of them could fairly win it. Personally, I would vote for Luck, but I also think Griffin deserves to win and will win. I wouldn't be upset if Richardson won either; he only amassed 1,900 yards and 23 TDs with a sick 6.0 YPC. (Compared to former teammate Mark Ingram, who won the Heisman in '09 with almost identical stats but fewer TDs).

So why would I vote for Luck instead of Griffin? Their numbers are both unbelievable, and Griffin surprisingly has a better completion percentage and more passing TDs, as well as rushing stats that most running backs would be happy with. But you've got to look at the schedules. Luck played against the Pac 10, while Griffin went 20/22 with 3 TDs against the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. Seriously, who??????

Griffin also racked up 6 TDs in a beatdown of the Rice Owls. So, while it was impressive to see Baylor finish the season with wins against Oklahoma and Texas, you've got to take Griffin's gaudy stats with a grain of, well, Rice.

College football enthusiasts (aka losers) will say "Don't give Luck the Heisman just because he's going to be the better pro!" And I agree. But give Luck the Heisman because he went 11-1 against a tough schedule.

9) Speaking of the three Heisman hopefuls, did I mention I was pretty excited about the Draft in April? The great thing about this particular Heisman race is that the three leading candidates all project to be awesome pros.

As I look at Luck and Griffin, I see pretty clear NFL equivalents, and they're two guys who are having unbelievable seasons. Luck is a bearded Pac 10 pocket passer with 4.75 speed and more athleticism than you think; his arm strength and accuracy are almost perfect. In other words, he's a clone of Aaron Rodgers. Luck is actually 2 inches taller than Rodgers. And I seriously think if he can grasp NFL playbooks and understand NFL defenses (no easy task, mind you), he'll be one of the 5 best QBs in the league as soon as next year.

Griffin, on the other hand, is an ultra-athletic quarterback with the mobility and speed of a running back, but an unexpectedly smooth ability to throw the football. He came out of no where this season and will end up winning the Heisman and going early in the 1st round. The NFL equivalent is easy: Cam Newton.

Both Newton and Griffin run a 4.50 and have the mobility to extend plays while keeping their eyes downfield. Newton is bigger and more able to shed tacklers, but Griffin may end up being the faster NFL quarterback, with a Vick-esque ability to break 50-yard runs. But make no mistake - Robert Griffin III can throw the ball, better than Vick, Vince Young, Tebow, any of the guys he'll be compared to. Because of the incredible success of Newton's rookie season (not to mention Tebow slowly transforming the NFL into a run-focused league), I think Griffin will end up a top 8 pick in the Draft, going to either Miami or Washington.

Then there's Richardson, a freak of an athlete and maybe the best prospect in this Draft outside of Andrew Luck. He runs a 4.42 and benches almost 500 pounds. At 5'11", 220 lbs, he's got the frame of a Marion Barber but the skill-set of a smaller guy like Ray Rice. His potential in the NFL is limitless; he can be a goal-line guy, a third-down guy, a complete package. He'll probably drop in the Draft like running backs always do, but it would be insane if he fell past pick 10 or 12. Look at what DeMarco Murray is doing this year - a third-round pick! Richardson is better than at least half the starting RBs in the league right now and he hasn't even played his last college game yet.

10) Final thoughts on the Draft: it appears that Minnesota and St. Louis will be picking 2 and 3 in some order. Neither team needs a new quarterback, so it'll likely be OT Matt Kalil and WR Justin Blackmon, unless somebody wants to trade up for Griffin or QB Matt Barkley. The rest of the 1st round is a complete unknown. Six teams are currently 4-8 and and five teams are 5-7. That means a team like Philly could pick anywhere from 4th to 15th, depending on how they play over the next four weeks. I think some teams, particularly those with dead-duck coaches or seeking new QBs, will be in full-fledged tank mode.

11) Looking ahead to the playoffs, it really seems like only 3 teams from each side have a legit chance. You know who they are.

In the AFC, it's New England, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Houston is doing great things on defense, but let's all just be honest, T.J. Yates isn't winning the Super Bowl. In the NFC, Green Bay, New Orleans and San Fran have a major edge on the rest of the conference. Those teams went 3-0 this week, while the rest of the NFC playoff hopefuls went 0-7. With Detroit playing like a bunch of retards and Chicago losing Matt Forte, it's up to either Dallas or Atlanta to throw a wrench in the NFC playoffs. I don't see that happening, although it's more likely than Yates, Tebow or Sanchez winning a playoff game in the AFC.

But what's ultimately going to matter is homefield. Either Baltimore or Pittsburgh will be awarded a first-round bye, and the other will have to waste its time beating up an inferior opponent. Most likely, Baltimore gets the bye, since they have the tie-breaker. That's assuming the Ravens don't stupidly lose to the Browns or Colts.

The Packers already have homefield clinched, but it'll be interesting to see whether San Fran (10-2) can hold off the Saints (9-3) for the bye. New Orleans doesn't want to lose in the first round like they did last year against stupid Seattle, in what I will always remember as the stupidest football game of my lifetime.

Before the year started, I picked SD over NE and NO over GB, with the Saints beating the Bolts 35-27. Obviously the Chargers are going no where (though mathematically still alive), so I will change my AFC pick to Baltimore over New England. I still like the NFC side, and I still like Brees to go 24-33, 315 yards, 4 TDs and win his second Super Bowl MVP.

12) Looking back at the rest of my preseason predictions, I obviously whiffed on the MVPs (Rivers and Mario Williams), although Williams might have had a chance if he hadn't got hurt. I also missed O-ROY (Ingram) and Comeback Player (Romo), but I nailed four other picks. Here they are:

-McCarthy, Coach of the Year
-Von Miller, D-ROY
-Jack Del Rio, First Coach Fired
-Peyton's neck, Most Annoying Storyline

With that, let's begin the Week 14 Picks.

Browns (4-8) @ Steelers (9-3)
Thursday night
Predicted Line: PIT by 11.5
Actual Line: PIT by 14

You may have noticed I've been less vocal about my disdain for the Steelers this season. I'm not sure why. Maybe my football-related hatred has been directed at the Bears, Jets, really bad commentators, and the BCS, so I haven't had much to say about the Steelers this year. To review: they think they are so cool because they beat up on a crappy division, their players are thugs, their fans are clueless, their fans talk weird, their fans have this gross sense of entitlement and arrogance even though they have no idea what they're talking about, Roethlisberger is a dirtbag, Bettis was never anything more than a glorified fullback, Harrison belongs in a mental hospital, and it's impossible to drive around Pittsburgh without getting carsick and/or lost. That pretty much covers it.

For this game, I actually want the Steelers -14, even though the line is too high and the Steelers' 35-7 win against Cincy was closer than the score made it look. The Bengals actually outgained Pittsburgh in the first half, but fumbled a kick return, had a TD called back on a penalty, and gave up a punt return for a TD. That could have easily been a 21-20 game instead of 35-7. But the Steelers did dominate in the second half once Dalton was forced to throw, and now that Woodley and Polamalu are healthy, the defense is really clicking. They haven't allowed more than 17 points to anybody except Baltimore all year, and the Browns have only scored 20 once since week 2. Also, Ben Roethlisberger might be playing the best football of his entire career, but nobody is really noticing. I'll go Pittsburgh 33-10.

Colts (0-12) @ Ravens (9-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 17.5
Actual Line: BAL by 16.5

My rooting interests over the next 4 weeks look like this, in order of importance:

1. Lions make the playoffs
a. Lions win
b. Bears, Falcons, Giants, Cowboys lose
2. Colts go 0-16
3. Packers don't go 16-0
4. Jets miss the playoffs; Steelers don't get the bye

If the Lions do end up missing the postseason, it will be at least somewhat redeemed if Indy ends up going 0-16. That's a definite possibility with Mr. 0-16 himself, Dan Orlovsky, leading the charge. Seriously, what are the odds of a kid growing up in Connecticut, playing college football well enough to get drafted in the 5th round, and then quarterbacking two different NFL teams to the only two 0-16 seasons in history? It's equal parts hilarious and tragic.

Unfortunately, I believe the Colts will win week 17, at Jacksonville, in their last effort to avoid a winless season. The Jags are terrible, they're tanking for a top 5 pick, and they just lost their coach. Once Indy clinches the #1 pick, they'll be playing week 17 like it's the Super Bowl.

But this game is not even going to be close. Unlike New England last week, Baltimore will not allow any backdoor garbage TDs. Their defense has too much pride. I like the Ravens 23-0.

Falcons (8-4) @ Panthers (4-8)
Predicted Line: ATL by 1.5
Actual Line: ATL by 3

Matt Ryan was downright awful last week against Houston, leading his offense to just 10 points. Atlanta's offensive line hasn't been the same since losing Harvey Dahl in free agency; Ryan has been sacked 22 times this year in 12 games, compared to 23 sacks all of last year. His stats are down across the board, despite the addition of Julio Jones. Meanwhile, Dahl has done nothing to help the Rams offense. Strange.

The Falcons have really struggled to score points on the road for the last several years, especially outdoors. That trend figures to be a nonfactor against the Panthers' 32nd ranked pass defense. For Carolina to have a chance of winning, they'll need to rack up at least 28 points. And fortunately, I think they can.

Atlanta's D will be without CBs Brent Grimes and Kelvin Hayden, and Cam Newton has played arguably his best football over the past 2 weeks, both road wins. He hasn't turned the ball over since his 4-INT game in Detroit, and he is really maturing as a well-rounded quarterback. I was totally sold on Matt Ryan just a couple season ago, but now, I'm not so sure that Newton isn't the better QB in this game. And with both teams being nearly equal offensively, I guess I'll side with the homedog.

Panthers 34-23. Probably wishful thinking. But oh well.

Texans (9-3) @ Bengals (7-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 3

The Bengals' playoff hopes are riding on this game, and they're lucky enough to get the Texans without Andre Johnson. So it'll be plenty of Arian Foster running into a crowd of Bengals, and TJ Yates throwing on 3rd downs. That sounds like a recipe for disaster ... but I actually think Yates will fare okay. Cincy's secondary has plenty of injuries, as does their pass rush.

On the other side of the ball, Jonathan Joseph has an edge over AJ Green, and that'll throw the entire Bengals offense out of whack, forcing Dalton to throw into coverage on other parts of the field with the mighty Texans pass rush chasing after him. I could be dead wrong pinning my hopes to TJ Yates on the road two weeks in a row, but I see Houston pulling off another resilient win and slamming the door on Cincy's playoff hopes. Texans 23-16.

Chiefs (5-7) @ Jets (7-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 7
Actual Line: NYJ by 9

Long, long ago the Chiefs were a great home team who struggled on the road. For some reason, that isn't the case anymore. While the Chiefs aren't exactly undefeated on the road, they are at least competitive. As a road underdog, they are 23-13 ATS since 2007, including an impressive 5-1 ATS in back-to-back road games. Because of the hideous play of Tyler Palko, this line is quite a bit too high. The Jets only looked good last week because Washington is such a wreck.

Also, the KC defense is actually pretty decent, especially at the corner positions. So don't expect much from Mark Sanchez. Maybe 2 TDs, 2 picks, and lots of inaccurate passes. Of course, KC's offense won't score much either, especially with Revis shutting down Dwayne Bowe. I like the Jets outright - their playoff lives depend on this game - but they'll sweat it out, 20-17.

Vikings (2-10) @ Lions (7-5)
Predicted Line: None, Peterson gametime decision
Actual Line: None

With AP, this will probably be DET by 5.5; without him, maybe 7.5. Let's say 6.5, but in any event, I want the points, because I actually think the Vikings might win outright. I wouldn't give the Lions any better than a 51% chance of winning this game. Too much unraveling going on right now, thanks to two straight national TV games in which we got exposed as the undisciplined, unfocused idiots that we have been since the preseason, when I wrote the following prophesy:

...Detroit needs to respond on the field with great execution of their gameplan, not with stupid violence or tomfoolery. I love everything about Ndamukong Suh's vicious attitude, but I don't like when the rest of the defense initiates fights just because they want to be tough like him.

The problem is, now the offensive players are creating just as much ruckus as Suh and his cohorts. It was a total team meltdown Sunday night. Titus Young throwing the ball at a defender like it was 7th grade recess; Burleson committing 3 offensive interference penalties; Pettigrew shoving a referee like he just hit on his girlfriend. If Suh had done that, he would have been ejected, suspended, fined, and maybe kicked out of the league permanently. But whatever. It was embarrassing, not only for the fans, but for the players, coaches, and everyone who bleeds Honolulu Blue.

Now Detroit prepares for a must-win game against a division rival who is much better than their 2-10 record and would love to spoil our season. Detroit would have lost to McNabb's Vikings if not for a huge comeback, and now we get the improved Ponder Vikings. Of course, Suh is suspended, Houston and Delmas are hurt, Kevin Smith is hurt ... so I don't have any expectations for a win. The only thing working in Detroit's favor is Minnesota's crappy secondary (who just got torched by Tim Tebow), but to take advantage of that mismatch Stafford is going to need time to throw, and with Jared Allen opposite Jeff Backus I never have a good feeling. Stafford has looked really gunshy the last few weeks, like he's lost his moxie in the pocket and is just waiting to get sacked. But who knows, maybe Calvin will finally have another monster game. He is certainly due.

It's tough to make a pick with AP out. He certainly changes the entire complexion of the game. But let's just say Lions 30-27.

Saints (9-3) @ Titans (7-5)
Predicted Line: NO by 8.5
Actual Line: NO by 3.5

Wow. I don't think I've missed a line by 5 points in the entire time since I've been doing picks. Why the crap are the Saints only 4 point favorites?? I'm probably missing something here, and no disrespect to the Titans, but the Saints are just too good. I'm not going to overthink it, I'll just take the Saints, 34-20.

Eagles (4-8) @ Dolphins (4-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3.5
Actual Line: MIA by 3

How far the mighty Eagles have fallen. [Insert joke here about "dream team" and "nightmare."] What reason do they have to try now? Vick will be back in the lineup, but with his $100 million contract, what does he care if the Eagles fall to 4-9 or 4-12 for that matter? That just means he'll get a better teammate in the draft.

Miami is playing out of their minds right now, and it's about time I recognize that. Matt Moore is giving one hell of an effort to keep his starting job. It's reminiscient of what Ryan Fitzpatrick did last year, leading the Bills away from the #1 pick and saving his job in the process. Fitz got rewarded with a nice contract, and Moore might pull off the same move.

But I doubt it. Miami actually has some stud players at some pretty key positions (LT, DE, CB, WR), so if they can find themselves a franchise QB they might be a darn good team next year. Maybe Moore will earn a starting job elsewhere next year if the Fins draft Barkley or Griffin III.

I like Miami to win easily, let's say 34-17.

Patriots (9-3) @ Redskins (4-8)
Predicted Line: NE by 10.5
Actual Line: NE by 7.5

With the Jets up 20-16 and 4:30 remaining, Washington got the ball with plenty of time to march down the field, score 7, and win. I got excited for a split-second about the possibility of the Jets losing and missing the playoffs ... and then, they showed Mike Shanahan's grumpy, expression-less face on the sideline, and I could tell that all he was thinking was "... 97 Broncos ... I'm a genius ... Elway Elway Elway ... running back by committee ... 98 Broncos ... maybe next week I'll put Santana Moss at running back just to screw with everyone ... "

Then, a turnover, some penalties, terrible tackling, and all the Jets win by 15 instead of 4. Now, Washington's two best offensive players (LT Trent Williams and TE Fred Davis) are suspended for drug issues. So I've got to wonder, why the crap is this line so low?

Ohhhh yeah, I just remembered. This is the 2011 Patriots, not the 2007 Patriots. These guys don't play any defense and they gave up 24 points to Dan Orlovsky last week. No reason to think Rexy can't put up 300 yards and a garbage TD or two. So let's take the points; Washington's pass rush is pretty good. 27-20, Pats.

Bucs (4-8) @ Jaguars (3-9)
Predicted Line: TB by 1.5
Actual Line: None (Freeman?)

Both of these teams got decimated last week; both defenses are ravaged by injuries. If Josh Freeman plays for Tampa, I like the Bucs to be favored by 1.5, and I'll take them by 3. If Josh Johnson starts again, we'll say the line is JAC by 1.5 and I'll take the Jags by 3.

49ers (10-2) @ Cardinals (5-7)
Predicted Line: SF by 6.5
Actual Line: SF by 3.5

Interestingly enough, the Cards have won 4 of their last 5 games, with the only loss against San Francisco. What's changed has been their defense: they've faced 6 good running backs in a row (Murray, Gore, Rice, McCoy, and Jackson twice) and held them to an average of 77 yards per game. This isn't the same Arizona team that started 1-6. I'm not ready to say they're good or even underrated, but the defense is taking shape under Ken Whisenhunt, and they've got a true stud to build around in Patrick Peterson.

But their problem exists mostly on the offensive line. They've given up 41 sacks, the 2nd most in the league behind St. Louis. Kevin Kolb has proven that he's better suited as a backup and not a franchise QB, something Arizona wishes they would have known before they gave him a monster contract.

For this game, I'm taking the homedog for three reasons:
1. San Fran doesn't have much to play for. They've clinched the division now, and they haven't played a bad game all season and they've been due for a letdown all year. Every new playoff team has a pre-playoff letdown game.
2. The Cards are a good homedog team. They're 13-6 ATS under Whisenhunt in homedog situations.
3. The main reason I'm taking Arizona straight up, and the reason this line is 3.5 and not 7.5, is because San Fran's best player is out. Patrick Willis could probably play if the Niners needed him, but now that they've clinched the division they're wisely playing it safe and keeping him out. Without Willis, I don't know if San Fran's defense can stop anybody, even Kevin Kolb.

So what the heck. I'm taking Arizona, 27-26.

Bears (7-5) @ Broncos (7-5)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3.5

Broncos have won 5 straight, 4 of which were on the road. Now Tebow triumphantly returns home and the Denver crowd will be insane. It's a shame Cutler won't be playing against his former team, because the fans would really give him some serious crap. But Caleb Hanie probably won't fare well against the crowd noise either. Especially not without Matt Forte. That Bears offense is really going to struggle against one of the hottest defenses in the NFL.

But it's tempting to take the points, because all Tebow does is win close games. He's won the last three games by 3, 3 and 4. But something about the Denver crowd makes me thing Tebow is due for his first big blowout. I will say Broncos 34-13.

Raiders (7-5) @ Packers (12-0)
Predicted Line: GB by 11
Actual Line: GB by 11

Even though Rodgers has covered as a favorite more than two-thirds of the time in his career, I think this game ends up being closer than 11. Just a hunch. It could certainly be a blowout, but with Woodson out and Oakland playing for their lives, I am only taking the Packers by 7.

Bills (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7)
Predicted Line: SD by 10
Actual Line: SD by 7

San Diego is coming off their best game of the season, and they're feeling just a little twinge of hope that their playoff chances aren't over. Buffalo, meanwhile, is crushed by injuries and just can't wait for this season to end. I like the Bolts by 13.

Giants (6-6) @ Cowboys (7-5)
Line: DAL by 3

These NFC East games always baffle me. I guess I'll take the Giants straight up ...

Rams (2-10) @ Seahawks (5-7)
Monday night
Line: SEA by 4

Sam Bradford is not practicing and not expecting to play. AJ Feeley is out with a broken thumb. So... it will be Tom Brandstater starting for the Rams. Yes, that is a real person.

Here's the Wikipedia rundown - 6th round pick in 2009, played college at Fresno State, MVP of the Humanitarian Bowl in 2007, never played an NFL snap, has been on and off the Rams practice squad 3 times this year.

So, while I'm not a big fan of Tavaris Jackson, I guess I've gotta take the Seahawks -4.

Wait a second... is our Monday Night Football matchup really Tavaris Jackson against Tom Brandstater?? How did that happen?

Go Lions.

Week 13 Picks

2011-11-30T13:55:00.006-05:00

This week: 11-5 ATS (12-4 straight up)
Season: 100-85-7 ATS (128-64 straight up)

Also, for the first time since early in week 1, I think the Lions have less than a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Thursday: Eagles (4-7) @ Seahawks (4-7)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2.5
Actual Line: None (Vick)

Has there ever been a bigger discrepancy in talent between two 4-7 teams? The Eagles have the talent of a 15-1 team while Seattle would be 1-15 if they played against any other division. And yet, here we are, week 13, and the freaking Eagles are tied with the Seahawks in the NFC Cellar. I never believed in Vick as a legit NFL winner, but how can a defense with Asomugha/Samuel/Rodgers-Cromartie/Babin/Cole/Jenkins be ranked 15th in yards and 19th in points? And how can that team, which also has the NFL's leading rusher, be a staggering 1-5 at home? It's one of the most bizarre things I've seen in a while. It would have been like the Miami Heat going 30-52 and missing the playoffs.

So as we say our goodbyes to the Eagles' playoff hopes, let's reflect on the epic season that never happened and ask ourselves, what have we learned from the 2011 Philly Eagles. Exactly two things:

1. Don't give a $100 million dollar contract to someone who used to torture animals;
2. Don't build a defense without any linebackers or safeties.

Now Philly heads to Seattle to face the banged-up and mostly-talentless Seahawks who are always tough to beat at home for some odd reason. Vick was ruled out today, so with Vince Young the line will probably be set at PHI by 1.5 or something. I should pick the Eagles for obvious reasons, but I have a feeling that Philly has collapsed and will no longer be trying. Their season is over barring a 5-game winning streak, and so I'm going against common sense and picking the Seahawks on Thursday night, 23-13. Yikes.

Titans (6-5) @ Bills (5-6)
Predicted Line: TEN by 1.5
Actual Line: BUF by 1.5

Both of these teams are hanging on to their playoff hopes by a thread. Buffalo has put 9 starters on IR and is coming off a crushing loss to the Jets in which their best receiver pretended to shoot himself in the leg. With that in mind, I like the Titans, who must have enjoyed watching the rest of the AFC South implode this week. To recap:

-Houston lost their 2nd string quarterback for the year and now turns to T.J. Yates, plus they signed Jake Delhomme;
-Indy fired their D-coordinator and promoted Dan Orlovsky to starting QB;
-Jacksonville fired Jack Del Rio, the owner sold the team to a guy named Shahid from Chicago, and Blaine Gabbert is still really bad.

So I like the Titans. 27-17.

Chiefs (4-7) @ Bears (7-4)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 7

Obviously a Chiefs win would be tremendous for the Lions, but having seen Tyler Palko play the last two weeks, I have absolute certainty that that will not happen. Granted, Caleb Hanie isn't much better, but the Bears have a couple guys the Chiefs don't have, namely Julius Peppers and Matt Forte. So as much as I don't like it, the Bears are going to win. But can I confidently pick Hanie to cover a 7 point spread? And then there's the possibility that Kyle Orton replaces Palko midway through the game (or starts?), and as bad as he was earlier this year, he's gotta be better than Palko. I hate these games where both quarterbacks are awful. I always get these wrong. But I'm pretty sure Matt Forte will see 30 carries and 150 yards and win this game single-handedly. So let's go Bears, 26-15.

Raiders (7-4) @ Dolphins (3-8)
Predicted Line: OAK by 1.5
Actual Line: MIA by 3

This is probably the 4th week in a row that I've guessed the line of the Miami line about 4 points too low. I guess I need to finally admit that Vegas loves the Dolphins. But I still look at them as the 0-7 losers with the terrible head coach. And while Matt Moore has an average QB rating of 100.5 over the past six games, I can't ignore the 55.6 QB rating he had last year on an equally-untalented Panthers team. Plus I'm pretty sold on the Raiders as a team that can win in the trenches against anybody and Palmer isn't quite as horrible as I thought he would be. Oakland takes this game rather easily, 24-20.

Bengals (7-4) @ Steelers (8-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6
Actual Line: PIT by 6.5

Both teams are missing their best defensive player (Leon Hall, Polamalu) and both defenses are stout against the run. So I expect lots of downfield passing and gaudy numbers for both QBs. AJ Green should have another Calvin-ish game: only a few catches, but they'll be spectacular, and one of them will be a huge TD. The Steelers will win because they have better veterans, better coaching, a better QB, and a fired up homecrowd ... but I'll say it's less than 7 mainly because Polamalu's out. Cincy covers with a late backdoor TD, 34-30.

Jets (6-5) @ Redskins (4-7)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 4.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 3

Rex Ryan against Rex Grossman. Oh the intrigue. Let's say Jets 23-21.

....

Just wrote picks for all the fricking games and lost all the freaking work when I tried to post it. I hate this stupid site.

Falcons @ Texans
Line - ATL by 3

Wrote a big long thing about how good the Texans D is even without Mario Williams. Basically went on to say Brooks Reed was the steal of the 2011 draft and Connor Barwin needs to become someone that people know about and Jonathon Joseph is the most underrated CB in the league and Houston has the best pair of inside MLBs of any 3-4 team, and blah blah blah I really hate this stupid website and Houston wins by 10.

Panthers @ Bucs
Line -TB by 3.5

Both defenses suck, both offenses about equal, I like Panthers to cover, Bucs win by 3.

Broncos @ Vikings
Line: MIN by 1.5

AP is out, Denver D is great right now, Minny gives up the 4th most sacks in the NFL, and Von Miller is not only the D-ROY but maybe a top 5 candidate for D-MVP. Denver's defense deserves more credit than Tebow for the 4 game winning streak; they keep it close, and then Tebow pulls off the miracle. Broncos again, 20-19.

Colts @ Pats
Line - NE by 20

I did all kinds of research on the biggest lines in NFL history and wrote some really great stuff but I'm so dang ticked right now I'm not doing all that again. To recap:
only 9 times since 1980 has a spread been 20 points or more, and 4 of those times were the 2007 Pats; biggest line ever was 23.5 points, 07 Pats against Eagles, and the Pats won by just 3; favories of 20+ points are 9-0 SU and 2-7 ATS; teams are 104-6 SU when favored by 15+.

But I'm going Colts to cover because how bad New England's D is. Pats 41-24.

Ravens @ Browns
Line - BAL by 6.5

Ravens are pumped after winning Harbaugh Bowl and now have 3 extra days to get ready for Colt McCoy. I think they've moved past their play-down-to-the-level-of-competition stage and will crush Cleveland here, 38-3.

Rams @ Niners
Line - SF by 13

Don't think the Rams get 100 yards of offense. Niners 23-0.

Cowboys @ Cardinals
Line - DAL by 4

Best thing about DeMarco Murray is that he slowed down the Tony Romo Hype Machine by turning them into a running team. He should have another great game here. Kolb is back for Arizona, and Beanie Wells is coming off a 200+ yard rushing game. Dallas 27-24, Cards cover.

Packers @ Giants
Line - GB by 7

Giants are playing for their playoff lives, but Green Bay is just too good. Pack 42-20.

Lions (7-4) @ Saints (8-3)
Line: NO by 9

Saints are great at home; Brees is unstoppable right now; Suh is suspended; Stafford is playing his worst football of the season; Saints D is underrated, especially against the pass; Detroit's secondary is without Delmas and Houston; Kevin Smith is questionable; just no reason to think this will be close, unless Stafford can hook up with Megatron early and often and keep this close. I doubt it. Saints 38-19.

Chargers @ Jags
Line - SD by 3

who gives a crap I hate this stupid website! SD by 4

Through Week 12

2011-11-29T15:39:00.003-05:00

Last night's Saints blowout brings me to 89-80-7 ATS on the season, and 116-60 straight-up. By comparison, the most popular sports writer in the world (Bill Simmons) is 88-81-7 and the host of uber-popular Walterfootball.com is 79-90-7. So I'm just saying. I am pretty sweet.

Also if you just look at straight-up picks, I am currently doing better than Golic, Hoge, Mortenson, Jaworski and Schefter ... basically all 5 of the NFL 'experts' from ESPN. The funny thing is, I feel like I'm having a crappy season picking the games.

And with that, I think I just executed my first successful humblebrag.

Now that the NBA Lockout is over, I'm thinking about writing some sort of NBA preview ... but I'm not sure if anyone cares about the NBA... ? Obviously the Pistons are a worthless burning pile of trash, but the rest of the league is riveting. Dwight Howard could literally end up on the Lakers, Nets, Bulls, Magic, or possibly a few others. And Chris Paul is a complete unknown too. He might go to the Knicks to create a new Big Three. What about Nash? Will the Mavs come out smoking again? Are the Spurs and Celtics done? Can OKC find their way to the Finals this year? What will D-Rose do as an encore? And most importantly, can the entire league unite once again to accomplish the one and only goal that pure NBA fans care about: keeping LeBron titleless?? There's a lot of intrigue, and I didn't even mention Blake Griffin's soon-to-be-remarkable sophomore season, Kevin Love going for 20 rebounds a night, Kyrie Irving making the Cavs relevant, John Wall transforming into Allen Iverson, and of course, Jimmer.

I don't care how thug-ridden the NBA used to be. Those days are gone, and the 2012 NBA season is going to be epic.

Unless you're a Pistons fan.

Week 12 Picks

2011-11-25T13:16:00.004-05:00

So far 8-7 ATS and 11-4 SU ... needing the Saints to win by more than 7 and feeling pretty good about it. Also needing Brandon Jacobs to score less than 25 tonight in order to win the A League and keep my slim playoff hopes alive.

Some random news:

>Matt Leinart is out for the year with a broken shoulder. But is this a bad thing for Houston? Rookie T.J. Yates (a 5th rounder from UNC) is probably just as good and comes with no baggage. He's a game-manager with an average arm and as long as he limits the mistakes and lets Arian Foster control the game, Houston will be okay, at least as far as making the playoffs. But do you realize that the quarterbacks in the AFC postseason are going to be Brady, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Sanchez, Carson Palmer and TJ Yates? Can't we just skip the first two rounds and just right to Pittsburgh @ New England?

>Suh is going to be suspended, at least two games. I'm not surprised, but I am extremely annoyed. Suspensions shouldn't be given out based on reputation. 99% of the players in the league would not get suspended for doing exactly what Suh did. Imagine if Wes Welker did that. It would be considered 'fiery' and 'intense.' Then again, Wes Welker would never do something that stuhpid.

>The Bears lost, keeping them tied with Detroit at 7-4. The Bucs and Eagles also lost and are both 4-7, which means they aren't making the playoffs unless they win 5 straight and get some help. Atlanta and Dallas are also 7-4 after wins, and if the Giants somehow beat the Saints then both of those teams will be 7-4 too, which would be six 7-4 teams fighting for four playoff spots. But I think the Saints will win, knocking the Giants to 6-5 and giving Detroit an edge.

But, if the Giants do win, the Lions @ Saints next week becomes even more pivotal. Because a Lions win would make the Saints 7-5 and possibly crush their playoff hopes. Too bad our best defensive player had to get suspended ... but at least we'll get a whole game out of Nick Fairley.

>Indy fell to 0-11 and has a commanding lead in the Luck Draft. St. Louis and Minnesota are the only 2-win teams, and neither is in the market for a QB. But both are definitely in the market for the #2 pick (LT Matt Kalil probably). The rest of the top 10 is going to include some QB-needy teams, such as Miami, Washington, Seattle, Kansas City ... and also some teams that might be ready to jump ship on their current QBs and start over, such as Cleveland, Arizona, Jacksonville, and maybe Philly. There's going to be a lot of intrigue in the 1st round again, and with possible franchise quarterbacks in Barkley, Jones and Griffin, it might be another great Draft.

That also means there will be less action early in the Draft on DEs, LBs, CBs and OTs ... the positions that Detroit needs to address. My hope right now is that with the 20th-ish pick the Lions land OLB Courtney Upshaw from Alabama. Or the other Bama defender CB Dre Kirkpatrick, but he'll probably go in the top 10.

That's all for now. Go Saints.

My bad not getting the picks up before Thanksgiving ... but I have a 10 day old baby so I'm not apologizing too much. I took Green Bay -6, and although I had a glimmer of hope for the Lions I wasn't the least bit surprised that Green Bay covered. It was a predictable loss, but it doesn't change the fact that the Lions (now 7-4) have lost their Wildcard lead and now need to win some tough games (@New Orleans next Sunday night, @Oakland in two weeks, vs. San Diego the week after that) to keep themselves in playoff contention. Week 14 against Minnesota is the most winnable game left, but even that won't be easy. As for Week 17 at Lambeau ... our only hope is that Green Bay rests the starters and lets us win, but they probably won't do that if they're 15-0, which they probably will be. So while winning in the Superdome doesn't seem plausible, Detroit has to look at their primetime game in New Orleans as a must-win.

You know what would suck? If our second best player acted like a complete ass, slammed a guy's head into the turf 3 times, stomped on his arm, got ejected, denied the whole incident after the game, and gave himself a real good chance of getting suspended for the vital contest in New Orleans. It's likely that Suh will get fined (maybe 30K or something) because the incident really doesn't deserve suspension, but given his reputation and previous run-ins with Goddell, I won't be shocked if he gets suspended for 1 game and fined up to 100K.

I've defended Suh every time in the past, but this really was inexcusable. But I blame Schwartz as much as I blame Suh. Suh is just taking on the personality of his head coach. They're both a couple of hothead punks who need to learn some freaking discipline. The Suh play wasn't the only reason we lost, but it sure as heck didn't help.

The other primary problem was Matt Stafford, who played really poorly for the third straight game. Once the game was 27-8 with under 3 minutes left, Stafford could have aired out a few bombs to Megatron, likely throwing a pick but maaaybe scoring and trying the onside kick and going for the improbably comeback, but instead he chose to pad his stats with a meaningless 9 completions for 60 yards and a TD, running the clock down to the final seconds and giving the Lions no chance at winning. It was a page right out of the Harrington book. And because of that final drive, Stafford finished the game with an almost respectable QB rating of 66.5. But prior to that garbage-time drive, Stafford was 23/35 for 216 yards and no TDs (3 picks, plus 2 picks that were dropped, one of which would have been a pick-six), so his QB rating in the actual game where the Packers D was trying was a horrendous 46.8.

Wait ... I thought all Stafford had to do was stay healthy?? You mean he might not actually be great in every game?? Say it ain't so!! Blame it on his finger!! Surely it's got nothing to do with the fact that he's just an undisciplined punk who spends too much time partying and not enough time earning his $72 million dollar contract.

Anyway ... that's enough about the Lions. Let's get to the week 12 picks.

Cardinals (3-7) @ Rams (2-8)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 2.5

Let's get the NFC West out of the way ... I like the Rams, 27-14.

Bills (5-5) @ Jets (5-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 7
Actual Line: NYJ by 9

HUGE game in the AFC Wildcard race. Bad timing for the Bills, who just lost Fred Jackson for the year, and lost center Eric Wood last week, and lost starting CB Terrence McGee the week before, and still don't have NT Kyle Williams back from the foot injury that's kept him out for 6 weeks. They play their third straight road game against the Jets, and NFL teams are 11-24 ATS in third straight road games over the last few seasons. As much as I want the Bills to win, I just can't pick a team that's missing 4 of their best players to injuries. Jets 23-10.

Browns (4-6) @ Bengals (6-4)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 7

It's hard to believe the Browns have 4 wins. They've only scored more than 17 points once this season. In their last five games they've scored 14, 12, 12, 10, and 6. But look at who they've beat this year: Tavaris Jackson, Kerry Collins, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Dalton is better than any of those guys, and the Bengals D is really becomming solid. But they lost star CB Leon Hall two weeks ago, and AJ Green is still less than 100%. Even if Green plays, Joe Haden can probably shut him down, and Cincy doesn't really have an offensive playmakers outside of Green. Let's go with Browns +7 ... Cincy wins a snoozer, 13-9.

Texans (7-3) @ Jags (3-7)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 5

Huh? Matt Leinart by 5 on the road?? Yeah I know he's got an All Pro receiver, a great running back and a great offensive line ... but can't the Jags put 8 in the box and force Leinart to convert some 3rd downs? That Jacksonville defense is pretty underrated, and I don't think anyone realizes how bad Leinart is going to be. I like the Jags in a massive upset, 17-13.

Panthers (2-8) @ Colts (0-10)
Predicted Line: CAR by 6.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3

Whatever. Indy doesn't deserve to be within 3 of anybody. Cam Newton is going to CRUSH them. Even if the Colts were trying (which they aren't), this game wouldn't be close. Panthers 34-17. Why hasn't Jim Caldwell been fired yet...?

Bucs (4-6) @ Titans (5-5)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3.5

Both teams need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Titans are probably a little bummed that Hasselbeck's injury wasn't more serious; Jake Locker looked like a stud last week in Atlanta. But Hass will play, and either QB should be successful against the struggling Bucs D. Tampa hasn't been able to stopp anyone since Gerald McCoy's injury; even the ghost of Chris Johnson should be able to put up solid yardage. This game is really pretty even. Both teams are just a notch above average. I like Tampa and the points. How about Titans 23-20 in OT.

Vikings (2-8) @ Falcons (6-4)
Predicted Line: ATL by 12.5 (AP out)
Actual Line: ATL by 9

Like Carolina, Minnesota is much better than their 2-8 record indicates. If either of those teams had Cleveland's schedule, they'd be a tidy 6-4 and looking at a Wildcard. But alas, Christian Ponder's going to take another loss here, and that stinks for Detroit because it means the Vikings are nearing pretty close to a top 5 pick next April. The big prize after Andrew Luck is stud left tackle Matt Kalil from USC. Minnesota could certainly use him.

With no Peterson in this game, it'll be Toby Gerhart, a white dude from Stanford, and that isn't going to work. Unfortunately for Detroit, Atlanta's going to win big, 34-14.

Bears (7-3) @ Raiders (6-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 4.5
Actual Line: OAK by 4

In a way turn of events, Kyle Orton was cut by the Broncos on Tuesday. Then the madness ensued; Chicago, KC, and several other teams with undesirable quarterback situations placed bids. For whatever reason, KC got him, and Chicago is stuck with Caleb Hanie in the wake of Cutler's broken thumb.

Since nobody knows anything about Hanie, here's the Wikipedia scoop: played college football at Colorado, was undrafted in 2008, barely made the Bears roster as their 3rd string QB, played in a few games last year, had terrible stats, lost all the games he played in ... so yeah, you're probably wondering the same thing as me. Why isn't this line ten points higher?

I'll take the Raiders, 33-17. Matt Forte can only do so much.

Redskins (3-7) @ Seahawks (4-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3.5

I hate these kinds of games. Rex Grossman against Tavaris Jackson. Who gives a freaking crap. Seahawks at home by 6.

Patriots (7-3) @ Eagles (4-6)
Predicted Line: NE by 5.5
Actual Line: NE by 3.5

Vick is officially ruled out, so it'll be Vince Young against Tom Brady. That was enough to make me lean towards the Patriots, but when Philly's best player (Asomugha) was carted off the field in practice and ruled out for at least this week, it became a no-brainer. No chance that Philly can slow down the Pats offense. Pats by 13.

Broncos (5-5) @ Chargers (4-6)
Predicted Line: SD by 3.5
Actual Line: SD by 6

A lot of athletes are described as 'polarizing.' LeBron, A-Rod, Kobe ... but usually, 'polarizing' is just a euphamism for a guy everybody hates. How many players are actually liked by half the fans and disliked by half the fans? Isn't Tebow the only truly polarizing player in sports? You can't not have an opinion on Tebow.

My opinion has shifted all over the spectrum, but I'm getting pretty close to deciding what I think. He's got Roethlisberger's body, Mother Teresa's heart, and the arm of a slightly-above average high school quarterback. He can miss a wide open receiver from 5 yards away, or he can hit an open Eric Decker 45 yards downfield. It makes no sense, it's utterly unpredictable, but he's got one thing that Phillip Rivers and all other pro quarterbacks do not have: the heart of Mother freaking Teresa.

So I don't know, maybe the Chargers will blow the crap out of the Broncos and make the AFC West a good race. They probably should. But I'm sure as heck taking the points, especially given the way Von Miller is playing right now, and the fact that Champ Bailey might be able to shut down Vincent Jackson, and the fact that Antonio Gates is just one big stupid injured foot pretending to be a football player. Chargers straight-up, I guess, reluctantly, but by less than 6.

Steelers (7-3) @ Chiefs (4-6)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8
Actual Line: PIT by 10.5

Steelers 34-10...

Giants (6-4) @ Saints (7-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 7.5
Actual Line: NO by 7

and Saints 31-17.

Go Lions.

Week 11 Quick Picks (and week 11 Recap)

2011-11-18T09:22:00.005-05:00

A grotesque 3-9-2 this week, bringing me to 80-73-7 on the year. I did somehow go 8-6 straight-up despite my worst week yet of picks, so I'm an excellent 104-56 straight-up.

Here's the post- Week 11 Playoff Update.

First the NFC.

Two teams have cemented their spot in the playoffs, GB and SF, and six teams are essentially eliminated: SEA, STL, ARZ, CAR, MIN, and WAS. We know a Wildcard won't come from the NFC West, and we know Jay Cutler is lost for 6 weeks. We don't know if Philly (4-6) or Tampa (4-6) can win a few straight and put themselves in the chase, but they both have schedules that make it a possibility. We assume the Giants will lose 2 straight against GB and NO while the Cowboys win 2 straight against MIA and ARZ, and thus we assume the Cowboys will win their division with at least 11 wins, while the Giants finish no better than 10-6. We assume the Packers will beat the Lions, and the Saints will too, but Detroit should win at least 3 of their other games. We assume that Caleb Hanie will be awful, and the Saints will take the NFC South. And lastly, we're downright terrified that Brett Favre will join the Bears.

So who makes the playoffs? Packers, Niners, Saints, Cowboys, Lions and ...... Eagles? Nah, probably Falcons. Still like the Saints over the Pack in the NFC title game.

The AFC is much less clear, thanks to Schaub's injury and San Diego's implosion. New England has a two-game lead over the not-nearly-as-good-as-they-thought-they-were Jets and it-was-fun-while-it-lasted Bills, but if you watched any of the Pats 34-3 drubbing of the Chiefs Monday night, you know they really aren't all that scary anymore, and Belichick has gone from Evil Genius to Mean Ex-Genius. (Brady's still the best player in the AFC though, so let's not freak out). Fortunately New England swept the Jets, so even with a moderate collapse they'll still limp into the playoffs at 11-5. The Steelers and Ravens are the next two best teams in the AFC, and are both going to finish the year 5-1 with super easy schedules. That means they're both 12-4, and Baltimore has the tiebreaker and gets the bye. So who does Pittsburgh get to pummel in the first round? Matt Leinart's Texans? Sanchez's Jets? Jake Locker and the Titans? Which leads to another question: how hurt is Hasselbeck? Did his elbow gradually get worse while Locker carved up the Falcons? What about the AFC West? Tebow?? Palmer?? Surely we can't count out the 4-6 Chargers who have lost 5 straight?

My preseason AFC Playoffs were NE, NYJ, BAL, PIT, HOU and SD. Might be a little boring, but I'm sticking with it. Leinart is going to be terrible, but all he needs to do is win 2 games of the next 6, and he gets a free win against the Colts week 16. Plus he still has Arian Foster who can carry them to wins against bad teams. The Jets should be able to beat out Buffalo and Cincy for the wildcard, although that'll probably come down to tiebreakers. In the AFC West, I'm still of the belief that San Diego will come out on top, but anything could happen as long as Tebow is involved.

Lots of insane games from week 11 that I don't really have time to break down. The Lions were awful for 1.5 quarters and amazing for 2.5 quarters in a weird 49-35 win over the Panthers. It was Detroit's third 17-point comeback this year, it was the best game of Kevin Smith's career (?), and Stafford threw 5 TDs to 5 different players, none of whom were Calvin. The defense really struggled all over the place, but Cam Newton (who by the way is going to be a dang good pro) bailed us out with some ugly picks.

Didn't get a chance to put up the week 12 picks for Thursday ... but I did text a reliable source and say I was taking all the favorites: GB -6, DAL -7 and BAL -3.5. So I went 3-0 straight-up and 2-1 ATS (Dallas won by just 1). Rest of week 12 picks to come ...

Thursday, Jets @ Broncos
Line: Jets by 6
What I thought the line probably was right before kickoff: Jets by 3
What I texted Andy right before kickoff: "I'll take the Jets"
What I woulda texted if I knew the line was 6: "Broncos cover."

Oh well. Tebow strikes again. Fortunately I got to watch the 4th quarter and all the Tebow-mania that ensued, because my baby girl is still nocturnal and has no concept of sleeping except during the day. Here's what I learned:

Tebow really, really, really sucks as a quarterback. I had no idea he was that bad. He literally missed open receivers on every single possession that I watched. Some of his passes were off-target by a good 5 yards. He looked about as sloppy and untalented as if they had pulled a random fan out of the stands and put him under center. And yet, he's 4-1 as a starter. I have no idea what to say.

Chalk this one up to a terrible pick-six by Sanchez, who played every bit as bad as Tebow, and sloppy defense by the Jets in the final five minutes. This was seriously one of the ugliest, most poorly played games I've ever watched, but the ending was somehow spectacular. My heart was telling me to pick the Tebows, but my head said Jets. Shoulda gone with my heart.

Watching John Fox on the sideline and Elway in the pressbox, it's clear that Broncos' management are not rooting for Tebow to succeed. Their applause after his 20-yard TD to win the game was a mixture of shock, forced joy and complete disappointment. Elway's face said "I'm stuck with this idiot for another year. Dammit. Hmm ... maybe I can trade him for Luck if I throw in our 1st round pick ... Nah, probably not. Dammit."

But the fans love him, his teammates love him, and I love him too, if for no other reason than he just beat the Jets. Next week Denver goes to San Diego for a HUGE game.

Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (2-7)
Line: MIA by 2

Huh? I get that Matt Moore is hot right now, but really? Buffalo just has a colossal talent-mismatch in this game, even with all their injuries. Bills 31-17.

Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)
Line: BAL by 7

Ravens beat all the good teams and lose to all the bad teams. I'm not sure if Cincy is good or bad. They're probably right in the middle. So I dunno ... but I'll take the points since I'm not a believer in Flacco. Baltimore 24-20.

Jags (3-6) @ Browns (3-6)
Line: Pick Em

Both offenses are rotten, but the Jags have a better D. I guess I'll take the Browns at home, since they've got the two best players in this game (Thomas and Haden) and the better QB (D+ vs. a D-). How about Cleveland 13-9.

Raiders (5-4) @ Vikings (2-7)
Line: OAK by 1

I like this homedog pick. I may be one of the only people in the world who realizes that Minnesota has the better QB in this game. They also have the best player (AP), the next best player (Allen), and probably 7 of the next 10. Huge talent mismatch. Their records don't accurately reflect how good these teams are. Plus, McFadden is still out. Granted, Minnesota's best CB (Winfield) is out for the year, so that sucks. And Michael Bush was dang good last week. But I still like the Vikes. 27-20.

Panthers (2-7) @ Lions (6-3)
Line: DET by 7

I hate to say it, but this line is a few points too high. These teams are actually pretty close talent-wise. Carolina has a great O-line and a QB who is actually pretty even with Stafford. Detroit has zero running game and not much of a secondary. We've seen Cam Newton cover spreads against Green Bay and New Orleans, so this only makes sense. CAR +7, but Detroit straight-up. Too much Detroit offense. Let's say 38-33, Lions.

We freaking NEED to win this game. Otherwise we are 6-5 after Thanksgiving.

Bucs (4-5) @ Packers (9-0)
Line: GB by 97

Actually GB by 14. Taking the Pack and not thinking twice. 75-17.

Let's just hope that somehow the Bucs injure Rodgers ...

Cowboys (5-4) @ Redskins (3-6)
Line: DAL by 7.5

Sorry, that's too many points for a road favorite. You're telling me that Dallas would be favored by 13.5 at home? Then again, Washington has lost 5 straight and they've all been by at least a touchdown. Hmm ... and Washinton's #1 receiver right now is Anthony Armstrong. Yeah, what the heck, let's go Cowboys. 28-13.

Cardinals (3-6) @ 49ers (8-1)
Line: SF by 9.5

That's a lot of points for Alex Smith to cover, but I daresay San Fran has the best defense in the NFL right now (!) with the way Willis and Bowman are playing. Maybe Fitzgerald helps keep it close with a garbage TD, but I don't know, San Fran looks pretty dang good. Let's go 30-13.

Seahawks (3-6) @ Rams (2-7)
Line: STL by 2

Ugh. Rams win 8-4. No offensive scoring, just six safeties in this game.

Titans (5-4) @ Falcons (5-4)
Line: ATL by 6

Hoping for a Tennessee win to keep Detroit in good shape for the Wildcard. But I don't see that happening. I do think it's closer than 6 though. Falcons 27-23.

Note: Even if they fall to 5-5, Tennessee is still in the hunt for the AFC South. Everything changed with Schaub's injury. Houston, currently at 7-3, turns to Matt Leinart at QB and instantly moves behind Oakland and Chicago and KC and Arizona and Miami and Washington and everyone else, and officially has the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. That's a pretty terrible dropoff. They'll be lucky to win another game all season. Fortunately they've got a bye this week, so Leinart gets an extra week to prepare, which won't be nearly enough. Be prepared: we could realistically see Tennessee and Denver winning their divisions at 8-8 each. And that would make for a three-team postseason in the AFC with Pittsburgh, Baltimore and New England. Not fair.

Chargers (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Line: CHI by 3.5

Going with my heart instead of my head. Taking the Chargers, 31-21.

Eagles (3-6) @ Giants (6-3)
Line: NYG by 4.5

Vick is questionable. Whatever. I think the Eagles players have given up. Let's say Giants by 6.

Chiefs (4-5) @ Pats (6-3)
Line: NE by 15

Would've picked New England if the line were NE by 21 and Cassel wasn't out for the season. But Tyler Palko making his first NFL start in Foxboro against a very pissed-off Patriots team? Yes please. NE 41-3 on Monday night.

Last week: 9-7 ATS (9-7 straight up)
Season: 77-64-5 (96-50 straight up)

Go Lions.

Week 10 Picks

2011-11-08T15:47:00.006-05:00

Raiders (4-4) @ Chargers (4-4)
Thursday night
Predicted Line: SD by 6.5
Actual Line: SD by 7

The Chargers actually played pretty well against Green Bay. They put up 38 points and 460 yards against a really good defense. The Raiders have done nothing but self-destruct since Al Davis died. The Palmer trade, the 28-0 home loss to crappy KC, and then getting trashed by Tebow. Now McFadden's injury keeps him out again, meaning it's Carson throwing on 3rd downs again. I sense a really, really big blowout coming. Let's go with SD 45-3. Let the Terrelle Pryor Discussion begin!

Saints (6-3) @ Falcons (5-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 1.5
Actual Line: Pick Em

Humongous game in the NFC South. Not sure exactly why, but I definitely see the Saints winning. Maybe because Drew Brees and Sean Payton are superior to Matt Ryan and Mike Smith. Maybe because I like New Orleans' defense about 5% more. Or maybe because a Falcons loss helps Detroit. But it should be extremely close. How about 34-31 Saints in OT.

Steelers (6-3) @ Bengals (6-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3

With Woodley and Farrior out, it is tempting to take the Bengals at home. Mendenhall should struggle against the Cincy defense, which shockingly ranks 1st in opposing YPC. But Ben Roethlisberger thrives on 3rd and longs, and he rarely loses to the inferior Ohio teams. I'm a little worried about some garbage points keeping this game close, but I think I'll side with Pittsburgh, 26-19.

Tebows (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 3

IF somehow San Diego loses to Oakland on Thursday night, which is a massive improbability, then Tim Tebow could have the Broncos at the top of the AFC West. In a four-way tie. But since I picked San Diego to win by 42 points, let's assume that doesn't happen.

I do like Denver to win again. They are playing better football right now than the Chiefs, McGahee is coming off perhaps the best game of his career, and Tebow has a nice rapport with Decker and Royal right now. By the way, is the word "rapport" ever used in any context other than QBs and WRs? Has anyone ever said that Obama has a nice rapport with Biden, or my taste buds have a good rapport with Thai food? What the heck does it mean other than the QB throws to that particular receiver a lot?

KC might be pissed following the embarassing loss at home to Miami, but they just don't have the talent to respond. For the second straight week, Tebow is playing against an inferior QB. I'll take the Broncos straight-up, 20-13.

Jags (2-6) @ Colts (0-9)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3
Actual Line: JAC by 3

Whatever .... Colts 17-12.

Bills (5-3) @ Cowboys (4-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 5.5

Buffalo is still missing stud NT Kyle Williams, and they've really struggled without him. Dallas is without linebacker Sean Lee and WR Miles Austin. Both running backs should go balistic (150 total yards each, at least), and the QB that makes fewer mistakes will get the win. So naturally, I have no idea. But since I'm undecided on the winner, I'll take the points. Why is this line 2 points too high? Buffalo 23-20.

Texans (6-3) @ Bucs (4-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 1.5
Actual Line: HOU by 3

Houston is due for a loss, and Tampa needs a win. Plus Andre is probably still out. AND this line is completely wack. But despite all that, I still like the Texans. Arian Foster is too good, plus Gerald McCoy is out. HOU 31-26.
*EDIT* The Bucs got Albert Haynesworth. Not sure he'll play in this game. Even if he does, not sure it'll matter.

Titans (4-4) @ Panthers (2-6)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line: CAR by 3

If Chris Johnson was still Chris Johnson, I'd be taking the Titans against the crappy Panthers D. But I don't know. Probably going Panthers 24-13.

Redskins (3-5) @ Dolphins (1-7)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 4

Probably the two worst coaches and the two worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL right now, so I don't know nor do I care what happens in this game. Washington's entire offense is hurt, and wasn't any good in the first place, but they do have a great pass rush (3rd in sacks). Miami just got their first win (31-3 at KC) and proved that they weren't tanking the first 7 games, they just really were that bad. This should be a game of three-and-outs and field goals, so I'll take the 4 points. Miami 16-13 as time expires.

Rams (1-7) @ Browns (3-5)
Predicted Line: CLE by 3
Actual Line: CLE by 3

Another dismal matchup. Cleveland has no offense and is down to their 3rd string running back. St. Louis just followed up a beatdown of the Saints by losing to the freaking Cardinals. But I've gotta go with my heart - the Rams are the better team. I swear, they aren't as bad as 1-7. I like St. Louis on the road, 14-13.

Cardinals (2-6) @ Eagles (3-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 13.5
Actual Line: None (Kolb)

Really, is there such a dramatic dropoff from Kevin Kolb to John Skelton that you can't even give a line? Especially when you factor in Beanie's lingering injury and the Eagles' great pass rush and the unfortunate reality that Asomugha>Fitzgerald. The Cards aren't doing anything offensively. When Kolb is officially ruled out, which should happen sometime today, the spread will be in the PHI by 14 or 15 range. And although Vick has been erratic this season, the Cards don't have any defensive players that can contend with McCoy and the receivers. This has all the makings of a 35-0 blowout, followed by the standard "Wait, maybe the Eagles still have a shot at a Wildcard!" discussion. For what it's worth, I'm not counting them out until it's mathematically impossible. I've never looked at a 3-5 team before and thought, Yeah they could realistically win 8 straight. But Philly could.

Ravens (6-2) @ Seahawks (2-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7.5
Actual Line: BAL by 6.5

What the heck. I'll take the Hawks at home. To cover the points that is. BAL 27-21.

Lions (6-2) @ Bears (5-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3
Actual Line: CHI by 3

I am nervous.

Forte > Lions' run defense
Bears D > Lions' running game
Peppers > Backus

Chicago could control this game in the trenches and run all over us. Detroit has been susceptible to great running backs all season. The more Cutler drops back to pass, the better I feel. Fortunately, Chicago's offense is still led by Mike Martz.

For Detroit's offense, the key is going to be the same as it was in Denver. Forget the running game. Pass early, pass often, pass short, pass deep; just don't waste plays with Keiland Williams up the middle on 2nd and 8. That crap has to stop. You've got the best receiver in football and Chicago has nobody who can contain him.

Both teams obviously need this game for playoff positioning, and if it comes down to 'Who wants it more?' I think Detroit has an edge. It's almost definitely going to be decided in the final 2 minutes, so if nothing else, I want the points. But I'm also taking Detroit straight-up, 27-23. Cutler's comeback effort falls just short.

Giants (6-2) @ 49ers (7-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 3.5

Hmm ... the mighty Giants who just took down New England, or the 49ers who are dominating everybody? I hate that stupid half a point. I like San Fran by 3.

Patriots (5-3) @ Jets (5-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 2

Patriots are pissed, Jared Mayo is back, and Mark Sanchez sucks. But ... the Jets have better players at pretty much every position except QB. Hmmm ... I'll go with New England for the sake of common sense. 23-20.

Vikings (2-6) @ Packers (8-0)
Predicted Line: GB by 28
Actual Line: GB by 13

When will Vegas learn? All Aaron Rodgers does is cover spreads, no matter what. He's 29-14 against-the-spread in the last two years, and I'm pretty sure 7-1 this year. I like Ponder, I like AP, heck I like Minnesota to finish strong and end up with 6 or 7 wins. But this won't be close. GB 41-27.

That's all for now ... Go Lions

Week 9 Picks

2011-11-05T21:10:00.005-04:00

A brilliant 10-4 ATS this week. Let's break down the games ...

Hey guys. Sorry it's Saturday night and I'm just now getting to the picks. Kind of a crazy week ... still no baby, but soon!

No Lions game this week, but plenty of routing interest. All of Detroit's playoff competition is in action, including a Philly-Chicago Monday nighter. The Falcons get an auto-win against the Colts, but the rest of the NFC Wildcard contenders have tough games. Tampa plays at New Orleans, the Giants play New England, and the Cowboys ... well, they play Seattle, but no game is easy for the idiotic Cowboys. As for the rest of week 9, I'm hoping for a Ravens romp over the Steelers, which would give them the upper-hand in the AFC North. Baltimore's next five games include 4 gimmies (Indy, Seattle, Cleveland, Cincy). Other games of intrigue include Packers @ Chargers, Tebow @ Raiders, and Jets @ Bills. Without further ado ...

Seahawks (2-5) @ Cowboys (3-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 10.5
Actual Line: DAL by 11

Tavaris is back in the lineup. Not sure if that's a good thing or not for Seattle. Dallas's defense can't really stop anybody, but the Hawks have no playmakers on offense whatsoever. That probably means Seattle scores somewhere between 13 and 20. For Dallas to cover they're going to need to score 30, and I don't trust their offense as much as I probably should. Let's say Cowboys 23-14.

Final score: 23-13. I was pretty darn close. Dallas continues to stink in the red zone, and Miles Austin is out for at least 2 weeks. But the good news ...

DeMarco Murray racked up 139 yards against the league's 2nd best run defense. In three starts, he has YPCs of 10.1, 9.3, and 6.3. On the season, it's 80 carries for 539 yards - a 6.7 average. Oh, and he holds the all-purpose yardage record at Oklahoma (3,685 rushing, 1,571 receiving), so it's safe to say he'll serve as the 3rd down back in Dallas and catch plenty of passes. In other words, Felix Jones is dead, and can be found next year for 75 cents at the Salvation Army store.

I might be getting ahead of myself, but I really think Murray is very close to surpassing Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and whoever else, to being the heir apparent to Adrian Peterson for "Best Running Back Alive." Not right now, but maybe twelve months from now. He is definitely the real deal. Dallas might just ride him to a playoff spot. I will ask once again ... Why didn't he get drafted until the 3rd round??????

49ers (6-1) @ Redskins (3-4)
Predicted Line: Whatever it is, it should be higher
Actual Line: SF by 4

I don't usually change my opinion of a team in the middle of a season, but with San Fran I don't have a choice. They are for real. They might have the second best defense in the NFL (behind Baltimore) and on offense they have Frank Gore healthy for the first time in five years. And their coach is doing a great job calling plays. They actually terrify me when I think about the NFC playoffs. Washington just keeps getting more miserable. Shanahan needs to go; Niners by 13.

San Fran won by only 8, but they outplayed them by about 28. They settled for 4 field goals and didn't give up a TD until 1:10 left when the game was basically over. John Beck was a checkdown machine, throwing 14 completions to rookie RB Roy Helu. This allowed Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman (who have emerged as the league's best LB tandem) to rack up 21 tackles, which allowed me to win one of my IDP fantasy leagues in which I own both guys. Alex Smith continues his efficient play (17/24, 200 yards, no picks), and Gore rushes for 100 yards for the fifth straight week.

With a 5 game lead over 2-6 Seattle and 2-6 Arizona, San Fran could literally forfeit the next 7 games and still make the playoffs. Heck, maybe they'll play Colin Kaepernick just to see how he does.

Dolphins (0-7) @ Chiefs (4-3)
Predicted Line: KC by 6.5
Actual Line: KC by 4

Here's the thing ... with Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry out, Miami actually has the better team. Being 0-7 has more to do with poor coaching than anything else. Also, they have the worst homefield advantage in football. But on paper, they have a lockdown corner, a great pass rusher, and an elite left tackle. KC doesn't really have any good players except Tamba Hali, who will be neutralized by Jake Long. Long story short ... I am taking the Fins and the upset, 24-10.

One of my more brilliant calls of the year, Miami picked up their first victory in a 31-3 game that wasn't quite as lopsided as the score indicates. KC actually had 9 more minutes of possesion, did better on third down, and didn't commit a single turnover. But they were undone by terrible field possession (began their first five drives on the 22, 6, 17, 14, and 9) and a few sacks on 3rd downs which knocked them out of field goal range. Matt Moore, on the other hand, was fiendishly brilliant, going 17/23 for 244 and 3 scores, with no turnovers and no sacks. I think we may need to consider the possibility that the AFC West is just as bad as the NFC West.

Jets (4-3) @ Bills (5-2)
Predicted Line: BUF by 2.5
Actual Line: BUF by 2.5

Putting aside my aversion for Rex Ryan, I have to admit I see this game as all Jets. Mangold is healthy, and Bills NT Kyle Williams is out. It could be a big week for Shonn Green. But mainly I just foresee a shutdown defensive week for the Bills. Revis will eliminate Stevie Johnson, and I guess I'm just not buying the Fred Jackson hype just yet. This is his chance to prove he is for real. We'll see. I'll take Jets 27-6.

Well, Fred Jackson did okay, but the Jets D proved why Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't really a playoff quarterback, and now the AFC East is a 3-way tie. It was lots of fun when the Bills were 3-0, but as I said then, all they accomplished was a nice start to an 8-8 year. Jets have won 3 straight and host New England next week on Sunday night.

Browns (3-4) @ Texans (5-3)
Predicted Line: HOU by 12.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10.5

Andre Johnson's out, so is Peyton Hillis. I tend to think this line is too high, but I'm not really sure if Cleveland can score any points. Last week Houston was favored by 9.5 and I took the points; they won by 10. Maybe I'm not learning anything ... but I'm taking the points again. Texans 20-13.

I hate the Texans. Since losing Andre and Mario, they've won 3 straight games by margins of 34, 10 and 18. Their defense ranks 5th in the NFL right now, and I don't think that's a fluke. Nice job by Wade Phillips.

Bucs (4-3) @ Saints (5-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 5.5
Actual Line: NO by 8.5

The spread seems a little high doesn't it? These NFC South battles are usually close, Tampa is finally healthy, and the Saints just lost to the Rams. You could say they'll be playing pissed off, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll blow out a pretty good team. I do like the Saints to win - Drew Brees is just too good to be 5-4, but I think it'll be close. How about New Orleans 24-20.

Tampa was going to cover until the Saints kicked a field goal with 1:17 left. Freeman actually played his best game of the season. But now, sitting at 4-4 with games against Houston and Green Bay the next two weeks, and Gerald McCoy out for the season, Tampa's playoff hopes are dwindling.

By the way, I still really like my preseason pick of New Orleans over Green Bay in the NFC Championship game.

Falcons (4-3) @ Indy (0-8)
Predicted Line: ATL by 13.5
Actual Line: ATL 6.5

If my upset special is correct and Miami beats KC outright, Indy's players will be doing backflips in the locker room after the game. They are WAY more interested in the Luck Sweepstakes than winning any games in 2011. I don't think the same can be said for the Dolphins. They remind me of the 08 Lions; awful coach, awful QBs, and a bunch of underachieving players. Tony Sparano actually reminds me a lot of Marinelli.

I don't especially like Atlanta, and it's tough to pick a road team to cover a touchdown. But it's impossible to take Indy right now against anybody. Falcons 34-14.

How much longer is Jim Caldwell going to keep his job? This is getting embarrassing. In other news, it was nice to see Julio Jones score his first TD on a 50 yard bomb. And then his second TD a few minutes later, on an 80 yard bomb. It was also nice to bench him in the B league.

The Colts offense attempted 33 passes and gained 103 yards on those, a stunning 3.12 YPA. That might be the worst YPA I've ever seen. Anyone else remember hearing things like "The reason Peyton Manning is so good is because he has such good receivers ..." Or how about when people used to defend Joey Harrington by saying "Put Peyton Manning on this team and we'd still be 2-14." It seems that we are learning a lot from the 2011 Colts.

Broncos (2-5) @ Raiders (4-3)
Predicted Line: OAK by 5.5 (McFadden out)
Actual Line: Oak by 7

I'm giving Tebow another week. I think last week was simply a culmination of a playing against a great and angry defense, tons of personal pressure from the media, and just a few unlucky plays. He was really bad, but I think his stats made him look worse than he really was. I still think he's got a shot to succeed in the NFL someday. And I have no doubt that he's the superior quarterback in this contest. Palmer is done. He and McNabb should go have a picnic at Favre's ranch and talk about how great 2004 was.

If McFadden were playing, Palmer's awfulness wouldn't matter. But Michael Bush doesn't have big-play explosiveness, and if Denver can force lots of 3rd and longs they can use their great pass rushers to hurry Palmer and create some turnovers... Oh crap, I'm head over heels in love with Tebow. What happened to me??? Denver 23-20.

No big deal, just 118 rushing yards, 2 passing TDs, zero turnovers, 24 unanswered points, and a 14-point win on the road against a division rival. Go ahead everybody, keep hating on Tim Tebow. But Carson Palmer is the one who deserves scorn. 28 INTs in his last 20 games, a QB rating of 53.9 so far with the Raiders, and two straight bad loses. How's that 1st round pick looking now Hue Jackson?

Bengals (5-2) @ Titans (4-3)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3

I don't see the Bengals winning 5 straight. That's all. Titans 24-16.

Dang, Andy Dalton strikes again! Cincy 24-17. The Bengals are now tied atop the AFC North. Three of their next four games are against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, so while it's very likely they'll fall back into mediocrity, it's also conceivable that they could control their own destiny and win the division.

Here's an interesting possibility: if the Bengals do somehow beat Pittsburgh and/or Baltimore and finish in the range of 9-7 or 10-6, would Dalton be considered for Rookie of the Year? His passing numbers are nearly identical to Newton's, and while Cam has 320 rushing yards compared to Dalton's 26, Newton also has a 2-6 record on a team that might actually be more talented than Dalton's Bengals. It's probably not going to happen, especially because the Steelers' and Ravens' defenses will almost certainly pummel Dalton's head into the turf, but shoot, it's at least worth a thought. And the amazing thing is: I think Christian Ponder might be the best rookie QB in the 2011 draft class.

Rams (1-6) @ Cardinals (1-6)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: ARZ by 3

I know the Rams should win, but I doubt they will. Who cares. Cardinals 26-20 in OT.

Wow. This was the first time all year I predicted an overtime game, and I not only nailed it, but nailed the Cards by 6 as well. This was Patrick Peterson's 3rd punt return for a TD, and all 3 have been at least 80 yards. The Rams are PATHETIC. 383 yards of offense, 23 first downs, 37 minutes of possession, and NO touchdowns?

Giants (5-2) @ Patriots (5-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5
Actual Line: NE by 9

I feel like this should be a close, high-scoring, Pats 34-31 game, but with Bradshaw and Nicks out I am taking the Pats to cover. I'll say 35-24.

Yuck. All this "ELIte Manning" stuff is making me sick to my stomach. If Eli was really so great, he would have been able to beat Washington and Seattle, and he would have beat Arizona and Miami by more than 4 points apiece. Let's see how he does the next five weeks - @SF, PHI, @NO, GB, @DAL. If you recall, back in August I said the Giants would need to begin the year 6-1 to have a chance at 10-6 and the playoffs. This game was certainly monumental for their chances. But there is still some brutal football to be played.

Patriots lost 2 games in a row for only the 3rd time in 8 years. The '08 Lions, by contrast, lost 2 games in a row 8 times in a row.

Unrelated sidenote: it's time for ESPN to end their radio-relationship with Mike Ditka. I get that he's a legend and a Hall of Famer, but he has nothing to say, and it's insulting to hear his analysis. It's obvious that he doesn't follow the game closely anymore, that he couldn't name more than 5 players on any team except maybe the Bears, and that's fine with me. He can do whatever he wants. But find someone to put on the radio who knows more than I do. Please.

This was Ditka's analysis this morning of the upcoming Bears-Eagles game: "Well I think it's a heck of a football game between two really good football teams. You talk about running the football, heck!, both of these teams can run the football." Thanks Ditka. Maybe next week you can inform us what color the grass is.

Packers (7-0) @ Chargers (4-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 5.5

I picked the Chargers to go 14-2, I picked Rivers to win the MVP, and I fully expect them to bounce back and win the AFC West (which might only require 9 wins). But this week they are just overmatched. San Diego could play thier best possible game and still lose. I'd like to take the points, but I can't bet against Rodgers right now. GB 37-27.

After the bye, Detroit plays @Chicago and then hosts Carolina. We absolutely need to win both of those games, because right now we need to consider Thanksgiving an automatic loss. Green Bay is going 16-0.

Ravens (5-2) @ Steelers (6-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3.5
Actual Line: PIT by 3

This is always a 3-point game. Take the points. Actually, Baltimore is the better team and has fewer injury issues. I like the Ravens by 3.

Ravens by 3 was one of my many good calls this week. I went 9-4 ATS (11-2 straight-up) with one game remaining.

I'm very close to switching my MNF pick to Bears+8, mainly because I'm not even convinced the Eagles will win outright. If Philly wins, it'll probably be high-scoring, something like 34-24. But Vick hasn't been good enough this season to earn my confidence against Peppers and the Bears D. Plus Matt Forte matches up really well with the soft underbelly of the Eagles defense. Okay, I'm convinced. Bears win 24-23.

Bears (4-3) @ Eagles (3-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3.5
Actual Line: PHI by 8

The line seems really high, but I am going with Philly 31-19. *EDIT* See above.

My last-minute switched helped me finish 10-4 this week, and a scorching 12-2 straight-up. I picked 5 underdogs to win outright, and all 5 of them did. Crazy.

Cutler played pretty well for the third straight game, but he wasn't exactly dominant. The Eagles just gave this game away again. Vick was erratic, inaccurate, confused, sloppy ... all the things people accuse Tim Tebow of. It was Vick's worst game of the season statistically, and it came at the worst possible time. Now Philly's 3-5 and has five teams to chase in the Wildcard race. I still think they have a shot (easy win next week against ARZ will help), but it's a long shot.

The Bears, on the other hand, have won 3 straight since the 9-false-start MNF loss at Detroit. The offensive line seems to have figured things out (only 3 sacks allowed in the last 3 games combined, despite facing Jared Allen & Babin/Cole), and Cutler is not making as many mistakes. They trail Detroit by one game and will host the rested Lions next Sunday. Detroit has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game; Chicago only 5 days. That is a gift that Detroit's coaching staff will hopefully take advantage of.

To channel my inner Mike Ditka: "It's a huge football game. Two good football teams playing good football, and let's see what the guys can do on the football field!"

GO Lions.

Week 9: 10-4 ATS (12-2 straight up)
Season: 68-57-5 (87-43 straight up)

Week 8 Picks

2011-10-26T09:31:00.005-04:00

With the Ravens stupid loss on Monday night (really Joe Flacco? 16 yards of offense in the first half?), I fell to 9-3-1 on the week instead of 10-2-1. Still my best week yet by a mile. I'm now above .500 on the season, sitting at 51-47-5 (67-36 straight up). I keep forgetting to do the Lock and Upset thing so let's just forget about that. Here are the week 8 picks:

Lions (5-2) @ Broncos (2-4)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: None (Stafford still questionable)

If Stafford plays, I'll pick with the line as DET by 3. If Hill plays, I'll say it's a pick em.

These are two teams with opposite surges of momentum. Detroit has lost 2 straight at home, their coach is perceived as an angry sweaty-toothed madman, their best defensive player is perceived as a dirty, arrogant, unrepentent prick, and their quarterback is hurt for the 7th time in 3 years, though really it's nothing serious and he should be fine.

Denver just eeked out a win against a winless team with their backup QB and suddenly Tim Tebow is the king of the freaking universe. Even LeBron James took to his Twitter to congratulate Tebow, saying quote: "he's just a winner." That statement is dripping with laughable, delicious irony. But rather than take the easy route by saying "how would LeBron know anything about being a winner?" I'm going to attack LeBron's motives.

Remember after The Decision when LeBron went from an averagely-liked athlete to a Top 5 Most Hated athlete in just one week, and pretty much everybody said the same thing: "He's gotta fire his entire PR crew." Well, apparently his new PR people are telling him to try to associate himself with likeable athletes. He's been Tweeting the praises of Tebow for years, trying to piggyback on perhaps the most beloved athlete in the country, hoping some of the love will someone fall on to him. Sorry LeBron, it's not working. Not even close. Nice try though.

Back to Tebow. Like I said last week, I have turned a corner and really started to like him as an actual NFL quarterback. I've always liked him as a person, because I have two eyes a beating heart. Tebow is a sincere, humble, hard-working raised-by-missionaries athlete who doesn't rub his faith in people's faces. No offense to Kurt Warner, whom I also like, but every single question doesn't need to be answered with "Well first of all, let me thank my personal Lord and Savior..."

But as an actual quarterback, I've done a 180 on Tebow. I think he'll have a good career, I think he'll win plenty of games, and I actually think Denver might be in playoff contention as soon as next year. Of course, Tebow the Person will always outshine Tebow the Player, but that's okay. He's unconventional and quirky, but he gets the job done. Will he ever lead Denver to the Super Bowl? I highly, highly doubt it. But am I scared of facing him this Sunday? Heck yes I am.

Fortunately, Denver doesn't have the weapons on offense that San Fran and Atlanta do. No Gore, no Turner, no Vernon Davis or Roddy White. Just a banged-up Moreno and the harmless Eddie Royal. Tebow doesn't have weapons. But as I heard on the radio yesterday, perhaps Tebow is the weapon.

[Real quick sidenote, speaking of radio. My personal nemesis, Sean Baligan, also known as the Worst Talk Show Host in the History of Radio, is officially gone from ESPN 96.1, never to be heard from again.

When I noticed Terp wasn't saying "Sean, Terp and Killer" at all yesterday, I thought something was fishy and called the show. Indeed, the producer of the show told me "Sean left the show yesterday to pursue new ventures. It was unexpected."

To be honest with you, I am having a rough month emotionally with family and home and new baby and stress at work and all those wonderful, crazy things, and this might have been the exact bit of good news that I needed to get me through the next two weeks. I nearly cried. I just said to the producer "Thank you so much. That's great news." It was like a tremendous weight lifted off my shoulders. You might think I'm kidding, but I'm totally serious.

You can't possibly imagine the depths of my hatred for Sean Baligan as a radio personality. He and I had an ongoing email dialogue in which I consistently begged him to quit his job. I routinely told him how terrible he was, but it wasn't just mean critical stuff. I gave him plenty of practical tips for improving, which he never implemented. I told him that his show was a 0.001 out of 10, and Huge was a 0.002, and thus I was listening to Huge now, just to ever-so-slightly increase the ratings of the Huge show in hopes that Sean would be fired. I actually preferred listening to commercials to either show.

I truly believe that my emails were instrumental in Sean's departure, and so, to all you sports-loving, radio-listening people in West Michigan - you're welcome.]

Anyway, back to Tebow. The dude is developing into a quality NFL quarterback, something I never thought he would be. But as of today, he's no where near ready. He's raw, unpolished, doesn't have an offensive coordinator who caters to his style (yet), and doesn't have any decent skill position players to work with. He has a sloppy release and accuracy issues, and he takes too many sacks. In short, he's a dead duck against Detroit's dominant defensive line. He'll probably make a few exciting plays, probably extend a couple plays with his feet, and maybe run for 30 or 40 yards. But in the end, he doesn't have the tools to put up big offensive numbers. Yet.

Detroit's offense will be without Best and possibly without Stafford, but they should still dominate. The toughest matchup once again goes to Jeff Backus, who has faced excellent pass rushers in 7 of his 8 games. Von Miller may be a rookie, but he's got 6 sacks already, which is incredible. Backus will need some help. But thankfully, Elvis Dumervil is out with an ankle injury, so Robert Ayers will play the other DE position. That's a huge advantage for Detroit.

The only other decent player on Denver's defense is 33 year old Champ Bailey, who will clamp down on Calvin with relative success. But the linebakers stink, the DTs stink, and Detroit should be able to have their way offensively, even with backups.

The key to this entire game is keeping the crowd out of it, and that is accomplish by keeping Tebow off the field. Detroit needs to limit the 3 and outs, which is tough to do without a running game. Hopefully Linehan redeems himself and calls a ton of short passes this week. For that type of game plan, I actually prefer Shaun Hill to an injured Stafford. I obviously want Stafford to play, but if he doesn't I don't think it affects the game very much at all. It takes away the deep pass, but that's about it.

We've currently got Chicago, Atlanta and Tampa chasing us in the Wildcard race. If we lose and any of those teams win, it's tied up. We can't let that happen. Not with the Packers poised to go 15-1. Detroit needs to start thinking Wildcard, and it's not gonna be easy in the NFC. It's probably going to require 11 wins to be safe. Detroit NEEDS to win this game, and they will win this game. 27-13.

Colts (0-7) @ Titans (3-3)
Predicted Line: TEN by 9.5
Actual Line: TEN by 9

Could this be the week that Chris Johnson finally does something??? He has only rushed for more than 55 yards one time this year. His YPC of 2.9 is dead last among running backs with at least 40 carries. He has fewer fantasy points that Michael Bush and Early Doucet. And his average draft position was 5.25 in fantasy leagues. Now he faces the 31st ranked rushing defense. Somethings gotta give.

Most likely, CJ will continue to struggle on most plays, but will break 1 or 2 big gains and surpass 100 yards. I don't love the Titans covering 10 points, but I really can't pick in favor of the Colts until I'm convinced they are trying to win. Tennessee 20-10.

Jags (2-5) @ Texans (4-3)
Predicted Line: HOU by 9.5
Actual Line: HOU by 9.5

After watching the Jags D completely obliterate the Ravens last Monday, I am very tempted to pick them. Blaine Gabbert hasn't shown any reason to believe he can play in the NFL, but the Texans defense without Mario Williams doesn't frighten me very much. I'm sure the combination of Andre and Arian will allow the Texans to gain more than 16 yards in the 1st half, but I still want the points. Texans win 23-14.

Vikings (1-6) @ Panthers (2-5)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line: CAR by 3

I was able to watch some of the Packers-Vikings last week, and Christian Ponder looked really decent. His stats were ugly, but against the best team in the league he held his own. He was clearly intelligent and confident, and had better speed than I expected. Overall, a huge upgrade over McNabb. Now he faces one of the worst defenses in the league, and that defense will have no choice but to put 8 in the box. Minnesota doesn't have any receivers, especially with Harvin hurt, but I still wonder if Ponder might be a sneaky good play in fantasy this week.

Cam Newton on the other hand has pretty much become a must-start every week. That Panthers offense is rolling. It's only a matter of time before Ron Rivera gets their defense to play too. They'll be good next year. But they still suck right now, and Minnesota has the three best players in this game: Jared Allen (11 sacks so far), Kevin Williams, and of course Peterson. I like the Vikes on the road, 27-24.

Saints (5-2) @ Rams (0-6)
Predicted Line: NO by 13.5
Actual Line: NO by 13

Bad news for Rams fans: This will be the 7th straight blowout loss.
Good news for Rams fans: Your next four games are @ARZ, @CLE, SEA, ARZ.

It's always risky to pick road favorites to cover huge spreads, and it's usually risky to pick the Saints to cover huge spreads. But you just can't pick the Rams right now. They are not only 0-6, but they are 0-6 ATS, which is much more heinous. I'll take New Orleans by 14.

Cardinals (1-5) @ Ravens (4-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 10.5
Actual Line: BAL by 13

Going to fly though the rest but to keep it interesting let's do them in Haiku form.

Cards stink, Harbaugh pissed
Wells hurt, Flacco embarrased
Ravens win big time

Baltimore 34-6.

Dolphins (0-6) @ Giants (4-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 8.5
Actual Line: NYG by 9.5

Fins can keep games close
G-men without best player
That's Tuck, not Eli

Giants 17-13.

Redskins (3-3) @ Bills (4-2)
Predicted Line: BUF by 6
Actual Line: BUF by 6

Skins offense all hurt
Thats Moss, Hightower, Cooley
and two lineman too

I like the Bills 13-3.

Pats (5-1) @ Steelers (5-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 3

Elite teams with flaws
Brady off bye is deadly
He always kills Pitt

Patriots 27-17.

Browns (3-3) @ 49ers (5-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 10
Actual Line: SF by 8.5

Browns are crap, crap, crap
But Alex Smith 9-point fave?
I guess I take points

SF 21-13.

Bengals (4-2) @ Seahawks (2-4)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1.5
Actual Line: CIN by 3

Benson suspended
Seahawks always good at home
Hate NFC West!

Seattle 23-20.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Eagles (2-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Line: PHI by 3.5

Hype, hype, hype, hype, hype
Hype, hype, Rob Ryan's hair, hype
Hype, Hype, HYPE, HYPE, HYPE!!!!!!

Dallas 26-24.

Chargers (4-2) @ Chiefs (3-3)
Predicted Line: SD by 4.5
Actual Line: SD by 4

Rivers overdue
Cassel consistently stinks
Chiefs D keeps it close

Bolts 23-16.

Happy Halloween. Go Lions.

Week 7 Picks

2011-10-21T14:04:00.003-04:00

*Off to a blistering 9-2-1 week (8-4 straight-up), with tonight's game pending. Ravens should roll and I should be 10-2-1. That would be pretty awesome. See my recaps of the games below ...

Week 7 Picks

Four new starting quarterbacks this week. Ponder, Tebow, Beck and Palmer. All strange and surprising in their own ways. Two injured QBs as well (Bradford and Tavaris) so we should see AJ Feeley and Charlie Whitehurst in the compelling NFC West. Lots of other significant injuries, including some (Jeff Otah, Joe Haden) that I wasn’t aware of last week when I made my crappy picks. We’ve got our first London game, a few potential blowouts, and two games with huge NFC Wildcard implications (Bucs-Bears, Lions-Falcons.)

I went 7-6 last week (9-4 straight up), bringing my total to a very disappointing 42-44-4 (59-31) on the season.

Here are the week 7 picks:

Falcons (3-2) @ Lions (5-1)
Line: DET by 3.5

Two weeks ago, this line might have been 7 or 8. What a difference two weeks of momentum has made. The Falcons just handed Backdoor Cam his first ATS loss, while the Lions lost their first game and their running back. They’ve quickly fallen from America’s unbeatable sweetheart to ‘Oh, oops, maybe they can’t run, stop the run, or stop the pass.” Amazing how the national media can be swung so easily. If we tackle Delanie Walker one yard earlier, Detroit is 6-0 and Herm Edwards is raving about Matthew Stafford as a possible MVP candidate.

Unfortunately, Sunday’s game was overshadowed by the now infamous handshake. My first inclination was to say “Who cares about the dang handshake, let’s focus on the actual game.” But upon reflection, the game really wasn’t all that exciting. Here’s what happened: San Fran won a defense-controlled battle of field position because they had a better punter and a better punt returner. That’s pretty much it. Sounds lame and boring, but it’s pretty much the summary. Sure, Stafford could have played better and a few more tosses to Megatron might’ve helped. But the bottom line: San Fran won a boring battle of 3 and outs, and their punter was awesome.

Having watched the handshake on Youtube a few times, I can’t help but think less of Jim Schwartz. Yeah, Harbaugh wasn’t the image of classiness and sportsmanship. And since he has a history of midfield confrontation (remember the ‘What the hell was that?’ game after Stanford ran up the score on Pete Carroll and USC), I am trying to give Schwartz the benefit of the doubt. But I just can’t. Whatever Harbaugh said to him, even if it was “F you, you skunk-haired loser,” Schwartz overreacted. He acted like an imbecile. It was embarrassing to watch, and each time you watch it his actions become less defensible.

Weirdly, most national commentators are blaming Harbaugh, calling him classless and arrogant. Maybe true. He does have that reputation. But he wasn’t the one chasing the other guy 40 yards down the field and then refusing to apologize. I lost a lot of respect for Schwartz, which is odd because I didn’t have much respect for him in the first place. He’s a good motivator, a great defensive mind, and a fiery competitor. But the jumping fistpumps and raging obscenities don’t really make him endearing to me. This whole scene also makes him a hypocrite, considering he was shouting the F-bomb at Dez Bryant a few weeks ago. Between this incident and the stupid skunk haircut, let’s just say Schwartz isn’t my favorite coach. However, he’s got the Lions at 5-1, and that’s all I really care about.

On to the game this Sunday … it’s Detroit’s third straight home game, and for some reason that has me more worried than optimistic. Coming off their first loss, it’ll be necessary for Detroit to respond with poise and precision on the field, rather than dumb penalties and hissy fits. In other words, I’m afraid that they’ll take on the personality of their head coach. It’s time for the veteran leaders to prove their worth in the locker room and have the team ready to play. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t really have any veterans with lots of winning experience. What are Raiola and Backus going to say? “Well guys, 5-0 was fun, but seriously, what did you expect, we’re the Lions.” Everybody talks about Stafford as a great leader of men and all that crap, but this is his chance to prove it. Let’s see how unflappable he is.

Atlanta scares me because they’ve already responded to adversity. They lost their opener to Chicago, they got trounced by Green Bay at home, and yet they aren’t freaking out. They have a smart and calm quarterback, led by a smart and calm head coach, and that’s a difficult combo to beat. Michael Turner gives them a better-than-average running threat, Tony Gonzalez gives them 15 years of experience and intelligence, and Roddy White is considerably better than any receiver Detroit has faced yet.

Chris Houston and the secondary are facing their toughest test of the season, and the best QB we’ve seen yet. Matt Ryan always struggles on the road, but he’s better indoors than out. Our biggest advantage is, as usual, on the defensive line. Suh should wreak havoc, and the rest of the guys will continue to rotate and use their fresh legs to generate a pass rush with 4 linemen. That’s the key, because Matt Ryan is smart enough to burn the blitz. If we pressure the passer without blitzing the linebackers, it gives us a chance.

The Falcons have a few playmakers on defense, and a pair of solid pass rushers in Abraham and Edwards. Their linebackers are better than average, and the corners are good but not great. Calvin has a somewhat tough matchup with Dunta Robinson, but I’m not too worried. The bigger concern for Detroit’s offense is Matt Stafford.

Since the first two games of the season, Stafford has been playing subtly worse each game. Inconsistency, inaccuracy, bad decision-making. Nothing terrible, but not enough to light up the scoreboard. We’ve been punting too much, throwing to Calvin too little, and settling for field goals in the red zone. A lot of the blame falls on Scott Linehan, who needs to stop wasting time with run plays. But Stafford seems to have forgotten how to read defenses and look off safeties. Either that or defenses have figured him out. Hopefully it’s the former.

With Jahvid Best concussed and the Ronnie Brown trade falling through because of Harrison’s ‘undisclosed medical issues,’ the Lions’ running game is completely depleted. It’s just Morris and Keiland Williams, two slow bruisers who won’t ever bring 8 in the box, even on 3rd and 1. If I were Linehan, I’d plan on passing 50 times this week. Short, quick, accurate passes. Use the whole field, use all the receivers. In other words, take a page from the New England playbook.

Atlanta has the edge at quarterback and running back, but other than that, Detroit actually has more talent than the guys who went 13-3 last year. I like our defensive line to dominate and make Matt Ryan really struggle. He hasn’t been the same since losing LG Harvey Diehl in free agency. I’ll take Detroit 27-23.

Been working on the house pretty much nonstop the last two weeks. Consequently, haven't been able to watch the Lions games. Don't worry, I've listened to the last two on the radio, and then rewatched parts. Although this game wasn't really worth rewatching.

This was basically an exact replica of the previous game. The defense created two turnovers and played good enough to win, but the offense was stagnant. Five field goals in the last two games and only three TDs. Three of those field goals were from the 12 yard line or closer.

In both games, the opposing quarterbacks had QB ratings of 63 and 60. We're getting to the passer, we're getting interceptions, and we're forcing punts. The defense hasn't been dominant, but it's been dang good. But the offense just isn't clicking. As my astute wife said, "Stafford has lost his mojo." She also blames Pettigrew for dropping too many passes and wonders why they don't throw more passes to the unstoppable monster named Megatron. She could easily replace Jon Gruden with that analysis. Seriously.

After completely proving me wrong through five games, Matt Stafford is turning into the quarterback I feared he would be. Sloppy, lazy, inaccurate. To quote from July 18:

[yeah, Stafford is going to put up good numbers this season. Maybe great numbers. But when you're counting on him to give you a TD in the two-minute drill ... you're going to be disappointed most of the time.]

There's no use beating a dead horse. I've said enough negative things about Stafford to fill a small book. Let's just let his play on the field do the talking. The last two weeks, it's said "I'm bored, hungover and/or miserable."

Part of the problem this week was obviously the nonexistent running game. Maurice Morris was useless, and so was Scott Linehan for calling 20 runs and only 32 passes. Linehan's genius idea for the first drive of the game: let's give Morris the first two plays, then throw on 3rd and 5! That'll work! No wonder he went 11-25 as a head coach with that kind of terrible, uncreative, play-right-into-the-hands-of-the-defense playcalling. Don't you think Atlanta's defensive coordinator spent the entire week having nightmares about Calvin Johnson, watching that triple-coverage catch against Dallas in slow-motion over and over, moaning in aguish, guzzling anti-depresssants, alone in a dark, musty film room? And then on the sideline on Sunday, he was probably skipping jubiliantly every time Maurice Morris handled the ball.

All throughout the game, Detroit tried to establish the run when Atlanta didn't prove they could stop the pass. It wasn't until 3 minutes left in the game that Linehan stopped running on 1st and 10. We also attempted runs on 1st and 20, 2nd and 10, 2nd and 9 ... just assinine. My blame for the crappy offense goes 60% to Linehan and 35% to Stafford. Stafford may have been put in some unfavorable third down situations, but he's got to do better than 1 for 12 in those instances. The rest of the 5% goes to Pettigrew and Titus Young.

I don't blame Morris or Keiland Williams at all. They are the Inge and Raburn of the Lions. If you keep putting lousy players on the field, expect lousy results.

I really miss Mikel Leshoure right now.

Next week Detroit flies to Denver to face TebowMania. It should be entertaining if nothing else. With Denver's crappy O-line and Tebow's slow release, it might be a feeding frenzy for a very pissed off Ndamukong Suh.

Bears (3-3) vs. Bucs (4-2) in London
Line: CHI by 1.5

Lots of games this week with spreads of 4 or less. This is a straight-up pick, and I’m not crazy about either team. Tampa is still missing Gerald McCoy and will really struggle to contain Matt Forte. But Tampa has played in London before (when they got blown out by the Patriots a couple years ago), and I think that makes a difference. Josh Freeman is the better quarterback, Raheem Morris is the better coach, and I like Tampa by 3.

Chicago's offense is clicking now that they've identified Forte as their best player. That's unfortunate. But Tampa still should have won. Freeman isn't going to throw 4 interceptions very often. Astonishingly, he threw only 6 picks all last year on 474 attempts, compared to 10 this year out of 270 attempts.

Both of these teams are now 4-3, along with the Falcons. Winning the wildcard is not going to be easy in the NFC.

Redskins (3-2) @ Panthers (1-5)
Line: CAR by 2.5

Rex Grossman was off to a nice start, but had one terrible game and got yanked for totally unproven and not-at-all-promising John Beck, proving once again that Mike Shanahan is an idiot. With D+ talent at QB, RB and WR, it’s amazing that Washington started 3-1. In addition, Beck will play without his starting LT and LG. Good thing the Panthers have the league’s worst defense, but I still wouldn’t count on Beck leading the Skins to more than 1 or 2 TDs. That won't be enough to keep up with the wonder known as Cam Newton and the Panthers surprisingly good offense. What the heck is going on with Steve Smith? Did he miss the memo about being washed up? Biggest story in this game is the health of RT Jeff Otah. He’s a gametime decision. He makes Carolina’s running game work. If he plays, I like Carolina by at least 10. If he’s out, I’ll take Carolina by 3. Either way, Panthers cover.

Otah played, Carolina won by 13. They ran the ball 37 times for 175 yards. John Beck wasn't bad for Washington. It didn't help that Santana Moss broke his hand.

Chargers (4-1) @ Jets (3-3)
Line: SD by 2

Here’s an amazing Week 7 fact for you: Mark Sanchez will be the best quarterback the Chargers defense has faced yet. They’ve played Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, and Donovan McNabb. So when you factor that into the 4-1 record, it’s really not impressive. This is their first real test.

The good news for the Bolts is they’re coming off a bye, so Rivers has had two weeks to prepare for the vaunted Jets defense. But with Antonio Gates questionable (meaning indubitably out), Darrelle Revis will eradicate Vincent Jackson and leave Rivers throwing to Malcolm Floyd and the rest of the nobodys. Big game for Ryan Matthews could be in store. Jets are easy to run on, as New England proved two weeks ago.

I don’t feel good about either side, but I feel more good about taking the Jets. They’re home, they’re more desperate, and the matchups fall in their favor.

Jets score 17 unanswered, Chargers fall to 4-2. Three TDs for Plaxico. Rivers was downright terrible. That MVP prediction isn't even going to be close. He's currently 20th in QB rating, behind two rookies and Curtis Painter.

Seahawks (2-3) @ Browns (2-3)
Line: CLE by 3

Don’t understand this line. Are we supposed to believe that Cleveland and Seattle are equal? Even though Seattle is trotting out Charlie Whitehurst? Hmm … both teams are missing their #1 cornerback, Marcus Trufant for Seattle and Joe Haden for Cleveland. Trufant is actually out for the year with a back injury. That probably means you can pencil San Fran into the playoffs, even if they lose their next 3 games. Peyton Hillis is also out for this game, giving Montario Hardesty another start. It doesn’t matter; Seattle is actually the best team in the NFL right now in stopping the run.

Sidenote: how many games has Hillis missed this year now? Three? Including one with an exaggerated case of ‘strep throat,’ where afterwards Hillis admitted that he could have played but his agent told him not to, because of contract issues? Yeah, let’s all keep pretending like the Madden Curse isn’t real. Just ask Drew Brees, who threw a career-high in interceptions last year and then lost to a 7-9 team in the playoffs.

With both teams missing their corners, you’d think this would be an offensive bonanza, but neither team has any good receivers either. Youngsters Greg Little and Doug Baldwin (both rookies if I’m not mistaken) are slowly becoming #1 receivers for these teams. I like both guys in fantasy leagues if you’re desperate. But don’t expect tons of scoring.

I don’t like picking the Browns to cover 3 points, but I like Charlie Whitehurst on the road even less. Cleveland 17-13.

"...don't expect tons of scoring." Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. Browns win 6-3 in arguably the worst game in NFL history. When one team doubles the other team in yards, first downs and time of possesion, and yet can't cover a freaking 3 point spread, that kind of sucks.

Texans (3-3) @ Titans (3-2)
Line: TEN by 3

It’s a little early to say this game determines the winner of the AFC South, but it’s not too early to dismiss Indy and Jacksonville from the discussion. So this game is extremely important. Crappy timing for Houston to be without Andre Johnson. Of course, Mario Williams is out for the year, as is Kenny Britt, so this game sucks overall. Houston has more talent, particularly on the O-line, plus their secondary should be able to shut down Tennessee’s blah receivers. But Hasselbeck is rejuvenated, using the dink-and-dump to wear down defenses and move chains. Houston’s pass rush is pretty much gone without Mario, so that’ll help Hasselbeck a lot. Big game for both running backs, especially Foster. I keep going back and forth, but I’m probably going to side with Houston, 24-20.

Holy crap, speaking of a big game for Foster ... how about 230 total yards and 3 scores? Foster had more yards of offense than the entire Titans team. Chris Johnson is pathetic.

Over the next two weeks, Houston gets Andre Johnson back and plays Jacksonville and Cleveland, while the Titans host the Colts and Bengals. In other words, they'll be 6-3 and 5-3, building up to a climatic week 17 rematch that will decide which team wins the AFC South and gets pulverized by New England in the playoffs.

Broncos (1-4) @ Dolphins (0-5)
Line: MIA by 1.5

In case you live in a cave, Tim Tebow is starting this week for the Broncos. Actually, I’m pretty sure even people living in caves are wearing Tebow jerseys. What you may not have heard is that the 2008 Florida Gators are being honored during this game, meaning the Tebow-mania is going to be even more insane. Between the fact that Miami doesn’t have any real sports fans, and the fact that Tebow is a God in Florida … this is clearly a home game for the Broncos. Thus they should be favored by 3. And I’m obviously picking them. Here’s why:

Tebow isn’t bad. That’s right, I said it. He’s got plenty of mechanical issues which we’re all aware of, and he isn’t tall or accurate or poised in the pocket. He’s not Manning or Brady, and he never will be. But he could be the next Tony Romo, except not quite as strong with the deep ball. He could be a poor man’s Michael Vick, extending plays with his feet for so long that the secondary gets lost. Or, he could be the first Tim Tebow, a lovable leader with an unparalleled will to win and the support of every warm-blooded person in America.

Heck, I hated on Tebow during the 2010 draft like it was my job. I scoffed when Josh McDaniels took him in the first round. And I was right. Tebow wasn’t first-round pick material, and it was ridiculous to make him the primary story of the Draft when guys like Bradford and Suh were being selected. But now, I’ve been sucked in like everybody else. Tebow is going to succeed. He’s going to win some games. He’s going to lead Denver to 6-10 or 7-9 this year and retain the starting job next year. He's going to become the most beloved Bronco since Elway, even if he only wins 8 games a year. And he’s definitely going to beat the crap out of Miami, who is unabashedly losing on purpose so their coach will be fired and they can start anew with Andrew Luck. I like Denver, 27-10, and I freaking like Tim Tebow.

Watching Sunday Night Football with Alie when the highlights of Denver-Miami came on. Tebow got sacked, looked sad, then scored, scored again, high-fived a coach, then prayed on the sideline while everybody celebrated. My wife asks "Is he single?"

That pretty much sums it up, yeah?

Chiefs (2-3) @ Raiders (4-2)
Line: OAK by 4.5

My thoughts on the Palmer trade: both teams got what they wanted, but Cincinnati won the trade by a mile.

The NFL is all about drafting. Teams that draft well win Super Bowls. The three best drafting teams over the last 10 years have been Green Bay, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. When you don’t have a 1st round pick, it’s a freaking big deal. Well, Oakland didn’t have one last year, and now they don’t have one in 2012. It’s an enormous risk, and not a heck of a lot of potential reward. It made sense when Arizona mortgaged their future for Kevin Kolb. Maybe he was going to stink, but at least he was young and unknown. Giving up 1st round picks in consecutive years for Richard Seymour and Carson Palmer, both in the tail-end of their careers, is not smart business for the Raiders.

So it was a heck of a steal for Cincinnati. Actually, it was the best trade I’ve seen any team pull off in a really long time.

But for Oakland, I don’t completely hate it. Sure, Palmer was awful last season, but maybe a new environment will help him. It worked for Matt Hasselbeck. However, it didn’t work for guys like Jake Delhomme, Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb, and the list goes on. But with Jason Campbell out for awhile, probably the rest of the year, it was a well-calculated risk. They gave up too much, but they probably had to do it. Why - because they’re 4-2. Nobody thought they would be 4-2 right now. If they were 2-4, they wouldn't have made this trade. But they have the league’s leading rusher and tons of confidence on defense and they seem to have found a coach they truly like for the first time in nearly a decade. So maybe this is their time. Maybe they can take advantage of the crappy AFC West and the lazy Chargers and sneak into the playoffs at 10-6. I doubt it, but maybe. They’ll run all over the Chiefs and win here, 26-10.

I don't mean to brag, but I was a freaking genius at 10:53 Saturday night, when I wrote "I am switching to KC...I don't trust Kyle Boller." Talk about a providential week. McFadden got hurt in the first quarter, and it was pretty much over at that point. KC was horrible, but Oakland was worse. Three quarterbacks attempted at least 14 passes in this game. Their QB ratings were 38.3 (Cassel), 22.3 (Boller), and 17.3 (Palmer). Now we remember why a pick-six was called a 'Palmer' last season. Holy crap, Oakland is screwed.

Raiders (4-3) next three weeks: BYE, DEN, @ SD
Chargers (4-2) next three: @KC, GB, OAK
Broncos (2-4) next three: DET, @OAK, @ KC
Chiefs (3-3) next three: SD, MIA, DEN (all home)

Assuming San Diego blows either the KC or Oakland game, they'll be 5-4. That's a high liklihood. So if Tebow can keep going Tebowesque things and win 2 of the next 3, we're looking at a DEN-KC-OAK tie at 4-5, all trailing the Bolts by one game going into week 11. What I'm saying is ... don't count the Broncos out of the playoffs.

Steelers (4-2) @ Cardinals (1-4)
Line: PIT by 4

When former Steelers coordinator Ken Whisenhunt left to be Arizona’s head coach, he took Russ Grimm and fifty other assistants with them. The Cardinals probably know the Steelers better than any team knows any team. Plus Arizona is finally healthy, Polamalu is playing hurt, Roethlisberger stinks in games he should win, and Larry Fitzgerald has a history of playing really well against Pittsburgh. A bunch of reasons to take the Cards.

But alas, the NFC West is a cruel temptress. I’m not getting fooled again. Steelers 26-20.

New rule when picking games: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Complete Lack of a Pass Rush = Steelers win.

Rams (0-5) @ Cowboys (2-3)
Line: DAL by 12.5

When I talked about the Rams way back in August, I noted that their schedule began with 5 brutal games in the first 7, and then went to a stretch of 7 should-win games. I said they needed to get off to at least a 3-4 start and they would be fine. Well, that didn’t happen. For a few reasons. One, Sam Bradford is playing like crap. Two, the secondary has reverted to its awful 2009 days. Third, they have the league's 32nd run defense. Once they fall behind, they can't stop anybody. And fourth, offensive injuries. They lost Danny Amendola, which might not seem like much, but the slot guy is essential in a Josh McDaniels offense. They can’t keep Steven Jackson on the field. Now Bradford has an ankle sprain, and is a gametime decision, which is a polite way of saying he’s out for two weeks. St. Louis has lost every game by at least 7 and an average of 17. Now they head to Dallas, who finally has two healthy receivers. A.J. Feeley is playing quarterback, so I don’t care that they added Brandon Lloyd. This game won’t be close. Cowboys 28, Rams 13.

Sidenote: Whatever Tony Romo does, it’s front-page news. Win big, win little, lose big, lose little. It doesn’t matter. If he’s playing, it becomes the most fascinating storyline in the NFL. I am so freaking sick of it, and thus I’ve vowed to not even talk about him until at least week 12. I don’t care if he throws 15 touchdowns this week. He and I are done.

A few days after my A League fantasy draft, I discovered I had made a major mistake by not taking DeMarco Murray. (Mainly because it's a keeper league). I was reading some column about the Cowboys offense and how much they liked the Oklahoma rookie, so I checked him out on YouTube. I honestly thought I was watching highlights of Adrian Peterson. The combo of strength and speed was unbelievable. I couldn't stop thinking "How did this guy not get drafted until the 3rd round?!" Apparently it had something to do with a toe injury in 2007 or something. What?

When he got dropped by the lucky bastard who drafted him, I was too lazy to pick him up. Felix Jones was getting all the carries. I knew Murray would be great when he got his chance, but I thought his chance was far away. I planned to stash Murray on my bench near the end of the year. Then, Felix got hurt, I missed the waiver frenzy, and Murray ran for 253 yards. I might have been the only person alive who wasn't all that surprised.

I did manage to pick up Murray in 9 of the other leagues. Not surprisingly, I went 10-2 this week in fantasy, losing the A League for the sixth straight week, but winning almost everywhere else. My only other loss was 226-229 to a bastard with Arian Foster.

Suddenly, Felix Jones is going to be looking for a job. Murray will be the starter in Dallas for many years. And I am probably going to trade my entire A League team for him.

Packers (6-0) @ Vikings (1-5)
Line: GB by 8

Packers are the anti-Rams. They’ve killed everyone they played, except New Orleans. They are blowing everybody out by halftime. Rodgers is playing like the hands-down MVP, and the defense gets better each week. Every week their line is too low. I’m pretty sure they’re 6-0 ATS this year.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is going with rookie Christian Ponder at quarterback, benching Chunky Soup McNabb. Donovan had gone six straight games without 230 passing yards. He’s got only 4 TDs in 6 games. His completion percentage is 60.3%. It’s safe to say his career is done.

Ponder will do a lot of handing-off to AP, and the Packers will put 9 in the box. On 3rd downs when Ponder has to pass, he’s really going to struggle. I’d guess his final stat line is something like 8/20, 75 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. Not going to be a memorable first game. I’m surprised Minny didn’t wait another week instead of throwing their rookie QB at the Packers and watching him get devoured. Maybe it’ll be a good learning experience. Build character or something. Packers 31-14.

No freaking idea how Minnesota manged to keep this game within 8, but since I went 9-2-1 this week I'm not going to complain. Rodgers has played 7 games this year, and his lowest QB Rating yet is 111.4. Average for the year is 125.7, with 20 TDs and 3 picks. And a 7-0 record. Somewhere, Brett Favre is getting drunk and watching highlights of the '96 Packers, muttering under his breath as he falls asleep ... "he's like a kid out there ... he's a gunslinger ...real comfortable jeans ..."

Colts (0-6) @ Saints (4-2)
Line: NO by 14

As I’ve said before, the Saints don’t like to cover big spreads. Sean Payton is 3-10 ATS against double-digit spreads. It’s not that they lose against bad teams, they just don’t blow people out very often. Probably because they always lack an inside running game. Well, this game will be an exception. Saints are clicking, they are pissed off, and they are at home against a tremendously bad team that isn’t trying. I’ll take New Orleans 42-7. Be very afraid if you're playing against Brees this week.

Honest question: are the Colts really that bad, or are they losing on purpose? I seriously have no idea. Maybe both? They're going to be in serious contention for Luck, which is going to make the Internet explode.

First coach fired is going to be Tony Sparano, but it should be Jim Caldwell. What a pathetic display. Plenty of good teams have lost their quarterback and still competed. Caldwell gave up on the season before week 1, and his players did too. If I were Bill Polian I would fire that guy so quick he would just stare at me with a dumb blank expression on his face. Wait ...

Ravens (4-1) @ Jaguars (1-5)
Line: BAL by 7

It’s like Monday Night Football isn’t even trying to create good matchups. What the crap is this?

All Jacksonville can do offensively is run the ball, and you can’t run against Baltimore. This year, you can’t really pass on them either. Baltimore could punt on 1st down every possession and still cover this spread. But they won’t. Instead Flacco will shred the porous and injured Jags secondary and prove why the Ravens are currently the best team in the AFC. Baltimore 28-0.

Bonus prediction: Rangers over Cardinals in 7. And Pujols is going to get $260 million over the next 8 years. Not sure yet if it'll be the Cubs or Cardinals, but I'm leaning towards Cubs.

Week 6 Picks

2011-10-12T13:29:00.004-04:00

49ers (4-1) @ Lions (5-0)
Predicted Line: DET by 5.5
Actual Line: DET by 4

Right now, Schwartz and Harbaugh are the top two candidates for Coach of the Year. Given Alex Smith's 104.1 QB rating (3rd in the league behind Brady and Rodgers), you have to give Harbaugh the nod. How the heck has he turned Alex Smith into an offensive machine?

One of the biggest surprises this season has been the Niners offensive line. They've been awesome. Now they get the Lions' elite, deep, and generally superior defensive line, so it should be a fantastic matchup in the trenches. Gore has 252 rushing yards in his last 2 games, a stunning 7.5 YPC, and that is mostly impressive when you consider that he doesn't have a huge outlier run to inflate the stats. His biggest gain is 12 yards.

Fortunately Detroit is turning into a run-stuffing defensive unit. Stephen Tulloch is the best linebacker we've had since Chris Spielman, and Levy makes a great sidekick. The D line doesn't get pushed around anymore, and the safeties can fly up into holes and slam into people. Stopping Frank Gore won't be easy, but I do think Detroit has the personnel to slow him down and hold him to less than 100 yards.

If we do that, we can force Alex Smith into passing situations, and hopefully create some turnovers. I was shocked and dismayed that Detroit wasn't able to force a single turnover against Jay Cutler. I doubt that happens again.

Vernon Davis is clearly the 49ers best receiving threat, while Josh Morgan has really surpassed Crabtree as the #2. (EDIT* Morgan is on IR with a broken ankle. This is pretty important). Delanie Walker is the new #2 receiver, with Braylon sidelined until at least week 8. These guys are deep and have tons of talent at the skill positions. Last year they looked like a playoff team but sucked because of poor quarterback play. This year everybody said "Don't be fooled, Alex Smith sucks!" but we didn't realize that Harbaugh was the football version of Yoda.

As great as the Lions defense has been this year, I don't see us clamping down on Gore and Davis enough to prevent 24 or 27 points from being scored. Which means this should be a really close game.

Offensively, I'm hoping Scott Linehan will scrap the running game from the get-go and coming out throwing. You can't run on San Francisco (they rank 3rd in YPC and they have Patrick Willis, the best run-stopping linebacker in a decade), so why force Stafford into 3rd and 9 situations? I'd rather see 2 incomplete bombs and take 3rd and 10.

Currently, Calvin is averaging 5.8 catches per game, and that number needs to start increasing. We've been treating him too much like a secret weapon for the last few years, and need to start force-feeding him the ball. As a red-zone guy, he's the best receiver in the league. Probably the best since Moss. But as a middle-of-the-field possession guy, he's underused. Obviously that's because of double and triple coverage. But still, I'd like to see his receptions increase, even if it means less passes thrown to Will Heller or less runs for Keiland Williams. I know, shocking.

The toughest part of this game is probably the mental factor. At 5-0, Detroit could easily relax and say "Nobody expected us to be 5-0, and being 5-1 would still be awesome." Playing on a short week is an added challenge. Meanwhile San Fran is riding a huge wave of momentum, coming off a 45 point win and feeling like they've already won the NFC West. It's gonna be tough to stay focused, but the home crowd should help. That, and this team has a lot of on-field leaders, especially on defense, who won't let the rest of the guys slack.

I see this being a back-and-forth chess match where both teams take turns leading. Neither will run away with the game, but neither will collapse. In the end, I like Detroit, narrowly, 24-23.

Colts (0-5) @ Bengals (3-2)
Predicted Line: CIN by 7
Actual Line: CIN by 7

I do believe the Colts are subconsciously tanking, but even if that's the case, I don't trust Andy Dalton and Cedric Benson to cover a 7-point spread. Bengals 24-20.

Bills (4-1) @ Giants (3-2)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: NYG by 3

I don't get it. The Bills just beat down Philly, and the Giants just lost at home to Seattle. Justin Tuck and Chris Snee (the Giants two best players if I'm not mistaken) are out. If Ryan Fitzpatrick was the one with the famous brother, wouldn't Buffalo be favored by 7? Seriously, what does Buffalo need to do to get some respect? I'm all over the Bills here, straight up, 27-23.

Rams (0-4) @ Packers (5-0)
Predicted Line: A Billion
Actual Line: 14.5

Really? Only 15? Guess I'll take the Pack. Let's say 35-6 at halftime, 45-20 final.

Jaguars (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 10
Actual Line: PIT by 12

Last week, everyone hated on the Steelers. Now, they're 12 point favorites. Everything can change in a week. Last week, this line woulda been 6 or less.

With all the injuries on defense and the crappiness of the offensive line, I still don't like Pittsburgh big. But a rookie QB in Heinz Field ... geez I don't know. Pittsburgh definitely wins again, but 12 is just a few points higher than I want to go. Let's say 23-13, Jags cover.

Eagles (1-4) @ Redskins (3-1)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: PHI by 1.5

On a talent scale from 1 to 100, Philly wins 95 to 65. But on the field, who the heck knows. I've picked in favor of Philly and been wrong for several weeks in a row. I'm doing it again. Sue me. 28-20.

Texans (3-2) @ Ravens (3-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7 (overreaction to Mario Williams injury)
Actual Line: BAL by 7.5 (Wow)

Actually, I like the Ravens too, along with 78% of the public. When a team is without their two best players like Houston is, it's got to be tempting to quit, especially on the road. Ray Rice will run all over them. I hate everything about Jacoby Jones. Ravens 27-17.

Browns (2-2) @ Raiders (3-2)
Predicted Line: OAK by 6.5
Actual Line: OAK by 6.5

Don't take crappy teams on the road. Don't take crappy quarterbacks to cover big spreads. I'm torn. I'm guessing the line is a bit too high; Oakland wins by 3.

Cowboys (2-2) @ Patriots (4-1)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 7

With the Cowboys on a bye last week, it was a rare chance for some quarterbacks other than Tony Romo to get discussed by the national media. Vick was oddly excused for his 4 INT game, and instead Tebow and Roethlisberger dominated headlines. For some reason, Rodgers and Brady are having historic seasons and nobody's talking about them (both are on pace for 44 TDs and 5,500+ yards).

These teams are similar in a lot of ways, but also very different. Both have great offenses capable of scoring quickly, and both have bad secondaries. Consequently, it could be high-scoring. The Cowboys have a good pass rush, while the Pats don't. But the Pats have a great O-line, which the Cowboys don't. In other words, don't count on many sacks.

With Miles Austin and Dez Bryant playing at less than 100%, it'll be tough for Dallas to keep the score within 7. Brady is like 99-1 ATS at home so I guess I'll take New England, 37-26.

*Ugghh ... I just realized now we have Rex Ryan's ugly long-haired brother doing his Rex impression, talking trash about the Patriots. Let me guess... Brady would only be the third best QB on the Cowboys right?

Saints (4-1) @ Bucs (3-2)
Panthers (1-4) @ Falcons (2-3)

Two huge matchups in the NFC South. The Saints and Falcons are both 4-point favorites. I like them both to win, but I think both games are decided by a field goal or less.

Vikings (1-4) @ Bears (2-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 3

After watching the sad excuse for an offense run by Mike Martz and Jay Cutler, I don't see Chicago scoring more than 14 or 17 points against Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and the Vikings D. Peterson should be able to match that by himself while McNabb continues to chuck passes to his receivers ankles. With all due respect to the great Tom Kowalski (RIP) and anyone who proclaimed the dominance of the NFC North prior to this season, this is probably the worst game of week 6. I like Minnesota only because somebody's gotta win. Let's say 20-16.

Dolphins (0-4) @ Jets (2-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 13.5 (Matt Moore on the road, come on)
Actual Line: NYJ by 7

Typically, Miami is a bad team that doesn't quite get blown out. In playing 3 great AFC teams, they've lost by 14, 10 and 10. But that was with Chad Henne. Now they have Matt Moore under center, and we all saw what he was able to do last year as Carolina's starter (55.6 QB rating).

The Dolphins have an excellent defense, however, and should be able to shut down the Jets really terrible offense. Sanchez is playing the worst football of his young career, and Shonn Greene looks slow and terrible. But, Nick Mangold is back in action, finally healthy, and that means big things. There are only 3 offensive lineman in the NFL who are totally essential to their team's offense: Mangold, Jake Long, and Joe Thomas. The Jets 3 game losing streak has everything to do with Mangold's injury.

With Miami coming off a bye and the Jets playing like crap, a lot of people are leaning towards the Dolphins. Hence the line being 7 when it should be 10+. But terrible quarterbacks on the road against great defenses ... that's too easy. Especially when Revis eliminates Brandon Marshall, Miami's only decent receiver. Low-scoring but Jets still cover. 16-3.

That's all I got. Hoping for a good week of picks, hoping my stupid fantasy team doesn't fall to 1-5, and mostly hoping for a 6-0 start for the undefeated Lions!

And hoping the Tigers can come back from the 1-3 hole. I'm not at all giving up; we've got Verlander today, then Fister and Scherzer who both pitched great against Texas (13 combined innings, 5 earned runs). It's obviously going to be tough to come back, especially if Nelson Cruz continues to hit 11th inning homers, but Detroit can do it.

Go lions.

Lions Dominate

2011-10-11T12:38:00.003-04:00

A few quick thoughts:

-The Lions D-line is like a hockey team. They rotate every 2 or 3 plays. Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young were just as good as Avril and KVB, if not better. It was incredible to watch DEs with fresh legs on just about every play. Nick Fairley is faster than I thought. Corey Williams continues to play great. And Suh is the catalyst, the leader, and the superstar. That D-line seriously is the best in the NFL, because it legitimately goes 8 guys deep and they all play. Never seen anything like that before.

-Granted, the Bears offensive line is AWFUL, and Jay Cutler might be the worst QB in the league. He could have 5 All Pro linemen and he'd still find a way to get sacked.

-Hey Jahvid Best, good to see you again. It appears your speed is not completely gone after all. What a wonderful surprise. Hope to see you next week.

-The better Calvin plays, the more Chris Carter looks like an idiot. It's not even close anymore. The only question is whether Calvin will break the single-season record for TDs. You know he's got a 3 score game coming up soon.

-Chris Houston is the most underappreciated player on Detroit's 5-0 team. He is playing some shutdown defense in single-coverage. He does not look like the same guy from 2010.

-The commentators from Monday Night are worse than bad. Jon Gruden is abysmal. I've always known he was verbally challenged, but sitting through an entire game, listening to his mundane prattle after every single play, was sheer pain. Tirico and Jaworski were lousy too, but Gruden repeatedly stole the show, providing bogus analysis on nearly every play, calling guys by the wrong name, saying Eric Wright was Detroit's best coverage guy, saying that Titus Young has been a go-to guy on third down, saying that Jahvid Best had a great season last year. He clearly makes things up as he goes. Which is fine. Lots of crappy commentators have done that and they can get away with it because they are former players or coaches. But it's not just what he says, it's how he says it. Like crappy poetry. Like monotonous reading from a 3rd-grade level book. Like an ex-football coach trying to turn obvious observations into some kind of profound wisdom.

Example:

"Now here's a guy, Brandon Pettigrew, who is not a short guy. He stands 6 foot 8 or something in that range. That's a guy who, with his size, has plenty of value in the National Football League. I'll tell ya, Matt Stafford likes havin a guy like that on his team. Brandon Pettigrew. Tight end for the Detroit Lions."

-Detroit is home for the next two games, San Fran and Atlanta. The Niners are 4-1 and would be 5-0 if not for the famous Punctured Lung Comeback. They are playing inspired and Alex Smith has 7 TDs and only 1 INT. His transformation into a mistake-free game-manager under Jim Harbaugh has been surprising to say the least. Let's hope Detroit's defensive line can rupture that rhythm.

-I went 7-5-1 (7-6 straight up) on the picks, to improve just a little bit to 35-38-4 on the season, and a still solid 50-27 straight up.

-Lost the Fantasy A League, falling to 1-4. My fourth straight loss, all by 6 points or less, all incured on Monday nights. I will go chew on steel wool to console myself. Won the B league easily and lost the Cornerstone league because Bowe and BenJarvus combined for 51 against me. Went 7-2 in the other leagues. The Morgan Masterpiece is now 5-0 after a thrilling 167-166 victory over "in da club."

In other news ...

-Tigers lost in the 11th on a stupid grand slam. Down 0-2 in the series, Fister pitching tonight, the next 3 are at home. I'm expecting to win 2 of 3. We have to win tonight to ensure at least one more game for JV. If Fister wins tonight and Justin wins game 5 (which he will), that means we just need a heck of a game from Porcello tomorrow and we might head back to Texas up 3-2. I'm not giving up hope yet.

-NBA is locked out for at least 2 weeks. That's a nice way of saying there won't be a season at all. What a smame. With all the young talented 'good-guy' superstars in the league ... Durant, Rose, Griffin, Howard, Paul, Wall ... this is the worst thing that could have happened to the NBA. Not to mention the Kobe/Dirk/Duncan/Nash/Garnett crowd who are losing one of the last seasons of their careers. The lockout is a positive thing from only two standpoints:

-People who cheer for teams with no chance in the near future, like the Pistons.
-People who want to see LeBron go his entire career with no titles.

As a member of both groups, I'm strangely comfortable with the lockout. I'll miss fantasy basketball more than real basketball. Man, the Pistons must really suck for me to say that.

-Somebody threw a hot dog at Tiger Woods last week.

-Steve Jobs died and millions of people found out on Apple products.

-A month from today is 11/11/11. I'm rooting for that to be my daughter's day of birth.

Go Lions.

Week 5 Picks

2011-10-06T15:33:00.005-04:00

Gonna just zip through these and then finish up with the Lions MNF pick.

Chiefs (1-3) @ Colts (0-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 3
Actual Line: IND by 2

The Battle for Andrew Luck takes a serious turn in Indy's favor as they fall to 0-5. KC wins 24-16.

Yup. Indy blows a 24-7 lead at home; Luck appears destined for either Indy or Miami.

Jackie Battle has 19 carries for KC, while McCluster has 4. Obvious fantasy pick-up.

Cardinals (1-3) @ Vikings (0-4)
Predicted Line: MIN by 5.5
Actual Line: MIN by 2.5

Vikings are long overdue for their first win. Don't pick the NFC West on the road. And the line is too low. Three good reasons to take Minny. 31-17.

34-10, 31-17. Same thing. McNabb was heinous once again, and will probably start his final NFL game by the end of the month.

Eagles (1-3) @ Bills (3-1)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: PHI by 2.5

This might actually be the most intriguing game of the week. Philly has about 40 times more talent than the Bills, but Buffalo plays as a team and is smart. Philly wins by a field goal, 23-20.

4 interceptions for Vick, terrible tackling by Philly ... Buffalo keeps playing mistake-free. At 1-4, it's going to be very hard for Philly to make the playoffs. At 4-1, it's going to be tough for Buffalo to MISS the playoffs. But I still think both unlikely scenarios will happen.

Raiders (2-2) @ Texans (3-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6
Actual Line: HOU by 5.5

The Andre Johnson injury probably hurts Houston's offense more than we realize. Oakland will cram the line and see if Jacoby Jones can beat them deep. Meanwhile, McFadden is looking like one of the best RBs in the league. I like Oakland to cover, but Houston wins 24-23.

So, I picked up Jacoby Jones and played him in the A League, thinking someone would rack up yardage for Houston against a bad secondary. I was right. With Andre Johnson out, Matt Schaub still went for over 400 yards in the losing effort. Guess how many yards Jacoby Jones, the #1 receiver, had? How about NINE. Nine freaking yards. Stupid jackass.

If I knew Al Davis was going to die on Friday, and if I knew that Mario Williams was going to miss half the game with an injury that might keep him out for the next several weeks, I would have taken Oakland straight-up.

Quick note on the AFC South. They went 0-4 this week, with 3 of the teams blowing a 7-point lead at home, and the other team being blown out. The three best players in the division (Peyton, Andre, Mario) are injured. We could be looking at another 7-9 team making the playoffs.

Saints (3-1) @ Panthers (1-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 4.5
Actual Line: NO by 6.5

I'm jumping on the Cam Newton Garbage Points bandwagon and picking the Panthers ATS until futher notice. Saints win 37-31.

Easy call.

Don't look now, but the NFC South is clearly the best division in football. Carolina is competing with everybody; they're 1-4 but all 5 games have been close. No other division is a close second.

By the way, what are Cam Newton's odds for Offensive ROY right now? At the beginning of the season he was an 11:1 favorite, meaning if you put down $100 bucks you would collect $1,100 if he won. Now ... heck, I would put down $100 bucks if the payout was fifty cents.

Bengals (2-2) @ Jags (1-3)
Predicted Line: JAC by 1
Actual Line: JAC by 2.5

The classic Rookie Quarterbacks on Wretched Teams Game. Can't wait for that. Guess I'll take the points. Jags win 17-16.

So apparently Dalton is a little bit better than Gabbert. Glad we got that cleared up.

Titans (3-1) @ Steelers (2-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3.5

I like the Titans, Upset of the week. Lots of reasons, most of which you've probably already heard. (Injuries to Roethlisberger, Mendenhall, Hampton and Harrison are only part of the reason). Titans make a "We're For Real' statement, 27-7.

Well, not only did Big Ben decide to play, but he decided to throw 5 TDs and expose the Titans for what they are ... a team missing its 2 best defenders from last year when they were already the 26th best defense. That's funny, I seem to remember saying that during the summer, and also saying not to bail on the Steelers. Glad I took my own advice.

Speaking of why I hate the Steelers ... In the A League (where I'm clearly desperate ... 5 byes plus a sucky team), I picked up WR Antonio Brown and RB Isaac Redman, both starters for this game. I guess I had a decent feeling about the Steelers offense. And after 431 yards of team offense and 5 offensive TDs, my two guys combined for a whopping ... 7 fantasy points. Their backups went for 28 fantasy points. Thanks Pittsburgh. Go eat a hoagie you freaking morons.

Seahawks (1-3) @ Giants (3-1)
Predicted Line: NYG by 10
Actual Line: NYG by 9.5

The worst team in the NFL is Seattle-On-The-Road. This line can't be high enough. I like the Giants 34-13. It's my Survivor pick (used SD, NE, GB and PIT so far) but I don't trust Eli enough to make this the Lock of the Week.

I don't know what to say about this game. Eli had 4 turnovers, took 3 sacks, and the Giants defense was even worse. They couldn't stop Tavaris Jackson. When he got hurt, they couldn't stop Charlie Whitehurst. Pathetic.

In fairness, I wouldn't have made this my Survivor pick if I knew Justin Tuck was out. I almost changed it to Sunday morning but I was too lazy. Without Tuck, the Giants D is one of the worst units in the league. Fortunately he's not out long.

From a 'Lions Fan Hoping for a Wildcard' perspective, this game was awesome. From a 'Guy Making Picks and Looking Really Stupid,' it was terrible.

Bucs (3-1) @ 49ers (3-1)
Predicted Line: TB by 3
Actual Line: SF by 2.5

The Bucs are one of 4 teams to start 0-1 and then win 3 straight. The others are New Orleans, Tennessee, and the Giants. Of these, New Orleans is the most impressive by far. They're essentially undefeated; their only loss is to the best team in football, and that game was decided in the final seconds.

The converse teams are Philly, Jacksonville and Arizona, who started 1-0 and have fallen in 3 straight games. The Jags and Cards make sense, but not Philly. Their season is an utter mystery.

This is a goofy line. People tend to think San Fran is much better than they really are. I like Tampa and I like them comfortably. Lock of the Week since their getting 2 points.

So, I missed the Upset, Survivor, and Lock of the week. Awesome. Thanks San Fran for not only winning but matching the same incredible score by which Detroit beat KC earlier this year. 48-3. How did this happen?

Well, for one thing, Tampa had 9 penalties, including 2 unsportsmanlikes and 1 big pass interference. They also had 3 turnovers and a failed 4th and 2. In terms of total yards, this game could have been close. Tampa probably has more talent. They just didn't play competitively. Mike Williams was targeted 9 times but ended up with only 4 catches for an ugly 28 yards and a fumble.

Patrick Willis might have won this game singlehandedly for the Niners, with 12 tackles, a fumble recovery, and holding the Bucs to 86 rushing yards on 23 carries, a direct reason why they punted 6 times. Once San Fran held a decent lead, they gave the ball to Frank Gore continually and he ran over the Bucs, who lost Gerald McCoy in the 1st quarter. He might be out a while.

With the Rams at 0-4 and San Fran now 4-1, the NFC West is almost a done-deal. San Francisco travels to Detroit next week.

Jets (2-2) @ Patriots (3-1)
Predicted Line: NE by 7.5
Actual Line: NE by 9

Rex Ryan recently guaranteed that the Jets will win this game. I didn't read that anywhere, I'm just assuming. Hasn't he guaranteed a win in every Pats game since he was hired? This is basically his Super Bowl twice a year.

The thing is, New York knocked the Pats out of the playoffs and made Brady look bad. There's nothing more certain than the Tom Brady Revenge Factor. Plus, the Jets are banged up, they can't generate a pass rush, and Sanchez is playing the worst football of his career. I bet Revis shuts down Welker (3 catches, 35 yards) and Brady manages to accumulate 380 yards to other guys. Big game for Ochocinco? Pats by 14.

Even though the Pats outplayed the crap out of the Jets (446 yards to 255 yards), they won by exactly 9 points, making this a push. Boo. Also Tom Brady threw only 1 TD, when he could have easily had 4. Stinking BenJarvusMcEllisGreenTreeFishBarn. But the good news is ... Rex Ryan has lost 3 straight and is in serious danger of missing the playoffs.

Chargers (3-1) @ Broncos (1-3)
Predicted Line: SD by 5.5
Actual Line: SD by 4

Denver is the darkhorse in the Luck Sweepstakes. They'll fall to 1-4 here. Homefield isn't an advantage when the fans are cheering for the 3rd string quarterback. Chargers win 27-20.

San Diego barely eeked out the cover, 29-24, as Tim Tebow's hailmary attempt fell incomplete. Wait, what? Tim Tebow is playing? Oh Lord help us ...

Packers (4-0) @ Falcons (2-2)
Predicted Line: GB by 7
Actual Line: GB by 5.5

Green Bay is a good bet to go 16-0 if Rodgers stays healthy, but that doesn't mean they'll blow out good teams on the road. This should be close and the Pack will win by 3ish. I'll take the Falcons and the points.

You've got to play a perfect game to compete with Green Bay. Atlanta played a perfect 1st quarter and a good 2nd quarter. But a bad 2nd half on both sides of the ball and Green Bay steamrolled them. I don't know if Atlanta stunk or if Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable. Probably both. Packers get St. Louis and Minny in the next two games, so they'll be 7-0 heading into their bye.

Bears (2-2) @ Lions (4-0!!!!!)
Predicted Line: DET by 5
Actual Line: DET by 5

A few thoughts on last week's amazing comeback:

-Matt Stafford was a complete bum in the first half, and a freaking machine in the second half. That's two games in a row. I don't like this trend, but if he's going to only be good in just one half I'm glad it's the 2nd.

-Same goes for Calvin. Imagine if those guys are clicking all 4 quarters.

-The running game was completely non-existent yet again. Jahvid Best appears to have lost his speed, which is a nice way of saying he'll be looking for a job in 3 years. He is dynamite on screen passes but worthless on carries. In other words, Kevin Smith...?

-Somehow Jeff Backus kept DeMarcus Ware from sacking or even pressuring Stafford all game. It was extremely surprising. Lot of help from Pettigrew and the RBs. But still amazing. I'm thinking Ware had an off-day moreso than Backus dominated. Now Jeff gets Julius Peppers, which will not be any easier. He's had a brutal month (Hali, Allen, Ware, Peppers).

-The O-line as a whole is exactly the same as they were last year: totally average. Decent pass-protection, decent run-blocking. Some plays are great, some are lousy. The weakest position is right tackle. Backus gets too many penalties and is too slow. It's the exact same story as 2010. I wish it were better, but I'm mildly and pleasantly surprised that it's not worse.

-The best thing about Burleson and Pettigrew is that they know their roles on the offense. Make a few plays, don't drop passes, block like crazy, don't suck, and force the defense to guard you. If they do their jobs well, Calvin thrives. So far, those two guys deserve a ton of credit for Calvin's MVPish start.

-For the record, the MVP of the first 4 games is Rodgers, then Brady, then Megatron. But having the "First Quarter MVP" debate is stupid.

-There is a very decent chance that Jim Schwartz will be Coach of the Year.

-The defense against Dallas showed a ton of poise. The corners were burned in the 1st half and so were the linebackers. Even the D-line was getting pushed around. Romo bailed us out a lot, but the defense deserves a ton of credit for not quitting.

-Bobby Carpenter deserves consideration as a starting OLB. Justin Durant hasn't really done much in the first 3 games and we don't want him playing less than 100% healthy. Carpenter is the team's best linebacker in coverage.

-Tulloch, Levy, Spievey ... three outstanding tacklers against the run, all struggle in pass coverage. Delmas is the guy everyone thinks of as a great tackler, but he's more of a hard-hitter, not a sure-tackler. And he also stinks in coverage.

-Chris Houston may not be Darelle Revis, but he is going to have a shot at the Pro Bowl. That one-handed interception was awesome and the runback was even better. If that play were Ed Reed or Asante Samuel it would have been all over Sportscenter.

-The depth on the defensive line is incredible. Willie Young, Sammie Hill, and Lawrence Jackson could all start on most teams. And Fairley finally plays this week, just in time for Chicago's weak O-line.

-Tony Romo deserves a lot of blame for the loss, but Stafford probably deserves more credit for the win. It was a combined effort. Calvin Johnson made one of the most impressive catches I've seen in years. If you didn't see the article on Mlive, Chris Carter basically apologized for leaving Calvin out of his "Top 5 Receivers" list and called him the King of Receivers. Way to own up CC. A few weeks too late, but good job.

-Speaking of national attention ... haven't the last two weeks been amazing? We are all over Mike and Mike, on the cover of Sports Illustrated, people are coming out of the woodwork and wearing Lions shirts to Meijer. My first inclination was to kick people off the bandwagon with a steel boot ... but then I warmed up to all this attention. It's nice not being on a wagon by myself.

-So that leads to the question ... what are the chances that Detroit begins the year 5-0 and the bandwagon goes from pretty-darn-crowded to street-market-in-Delhi-crowded?

The momentum is certainly all in Detroit's favor. We've won 4 straight, 3 of which were on the road, and we've won the last two in dramatic fashion. Now we head home, for the first Monday game in 10 years, and the fans haven't been this excited since ... what, 1992?

Chicago has lost 2 of 3, and barely beat Carolina at home last week. (However, let's take note of those two losses: Green Bay and New Orleans, the two best quarterbacks in the NFC.) Jay Cutler has already been sacked a league-high 15 times, and is coming off one of the worst games of his career (107 passing yards).

The Bears are searching for an identity (a great running back and a crappy quarterback on a pass-first offense with no offensive line... hmm?) while the Lions know exactly who they are, they believe in themselves and each other, they are totally clicking, etc, etc. Except for the Backus-Peppers mismatch, every inclination is to take the Lions big. After all, who the heck can defend Calvin Johnson?

I'm slightly nervous about Matt Forte, but I also know how stupid Mike Martz is, and I know that Forte is only going to see 10 or 12 carries, because obvious common sense doesn't apply to Martz. I also trust Stephen Tulloch when it comes to stopping running backs. Remember, Forte's 200 yard game came against a terrible Panthers defense missing their two best linebackers. If we shut down Forte, if we force Cutler to pass, we are going to have a field day. Because although he might go 27-45 for 315 yards and 3 TDs, he'll also take 4 sacks and have 3 turnovers, and those plays will be game-changers.

I'm taking Detroit in a raucous semi-blowout. 38-24.

Update: Fairley will almost definitely play, Durant will be back, and Levy and Delmas are probable, meaning the Lions are at full-strength. The Bears are missing role players at WR, DE and safety, but none of them are great players.

And the Tigers play game 2 in about 3 hours.

Suffering and Rejoicing

2011-10-04T09:34:00.002-04:00

My picks were a miserable 5-11 against-the-spread (8-8 straight up). I was destroyed by comebacks; Detroit, San Fran, Cincy, Seattle, and the Giants all mounted enormous comebacks to either win or cover the spread in obnoxious fashion. At halftime of the 1pm games, I was on pace to go 7-2. All of the afternoon games were going my way too until the 4th quarters. I just got lambasted over and over by huge freaking comebacks. Arizona led by 10 with 3 minutes left and lost; Atlanta and Philly both led by 20 in the second half and both gave up 3 TDs in the last 25 minutes to lose ATS; and of course the Lions were trailing by 24 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, but I'm not complaining about that outcome.

Also, my fantasy teams were destroyed by the Ravens defense. I lost all 3 leagues, but had pretty substantial leads in all of them. In the A League, I had the win wrapped up after Beanie Wells put up 3 TDs; I led by 30ish and all he had was the Ravens defense. Well, they promptly scored defensive TDs in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter, and I hate Mark Sanchez even more now. Overall I went 6-6 in the 12 leagues: 3-0 in the leagues in which I own the Ravens D, and 0-4 against them. My favorite non-important team is the Morgan Mouse, the only team I actually drafted in full. I was trailing last night by 2.5 points with only DT Gerald McCoy left. McCoy had 6 tackles and 1 sack to earn me the victory.

But overall, it was a miserable weekend for picks and for my fantasy teams.

However, the Lions are 4-0 and the Tigers are on the verge of advancing to the ALCS, so you won't hear any complaining from me. I'll recap my thoughts on the Lions in a couple days when I get to the week 5 picks. Going to be an interesting week, with tons of injuries (Jerod Mayo, Andre Johnson, Roethlisberger) and a few bye weeks. And of course the Lions first Monday nighter in 10 years.

Completely unrelated to anything: you know that Captain Morgan commercial where all the pirates are having some kind of secret underground meeting, and the waitress drops the glass and it breaks, and the mean old lady grimaces like maybe she'll have the servant girl horsewhipped, and Cap't Morgan decides it's an opportune time to show how much he sympathizes with clumsy waitresses by nudging his glass off the table and watching it shatter, which elicits a jubilee of broken glasses amongst all these pirate leaders and 15th-century politicians, who learn that by shattering a glass you might rekindle a forgotten love or discover a profound sense of youthfulness, and then even the bitchy old hag gets in on the fun, shyly tossing her glass over her head at the wall while smiling flirtatiously at the fun-lovin Capt'n? I can't decide if that's the worst 1 minute in the history of television, but I'm pretty sure it is.

Picks this year:
28-33-3 (43-21 straight up)
Lock: 2-2
Upset: 2-2
Survivor: 4-0
Lions: 1-3

A few last notes:

Don't get too excited about the Giants 3-1 start. From weeks 9 to 13 they play New England, New Orleans, Green Bay and Philly. They aren't winning more than 10 games.

It's okay to panic about the Rams. Even though their schedule gets easy soon, they look like crap. They couldn't stop Ryan Torain and Rex Grossman.

Andrew Luck going to Miami appears very likely. I've been following him a little bit this year and he's only getting better. Dude is a YouTube sensation already.

Peace

Week 4 Picks

2011-09-28T09:39:00.006-04:00

Week 1 is all about excitement. Tom Brady, Cam Newton, the Colts suck!! Yay football!!

Week 2 is lots of confusion. Are the Chiefs and Colts really that bad?? Is Baltimore secretly terrible, or is Tennessee actually good ... Wait, Cam Newton threw for how many yards?

But Week 3 is the worst. It can be summed up in one word: overreaction.

Now our confusion has turned into crystal-clear perception. In fact, yes the Chiefs and Colts will both go 0-16 and their owners will arm wrestle for Andrew Luck. No, the Ravens aren't bad, they just had an off-week. Actually it's the Rams that suck. They'll go 0-16 too! And Mike Vick will never play another game because of his bruised non-throwing hand, and Tony Romo will spend his weekdays fighting terrorists in Syria, punctured lung and all. Oh, and Tom Brady sucks! Can you believe he threw 4 picks!

Some of this perception is accurate. But most of it is lunacy. We don't know anything after 3 weeks. 81% of the season is yet to be played. A lot of key players are hurt, some teams haven't played anybody yet, and others, like Atlanta and Minnesota, haven't had an easy game yet.

Yesterday, I heard an ESPN radio host say that the Bills and Lions are top 5 teams, and the Raiders are top 10. Really? Come on ... seriously??

In fairness, the Lions look great. Focused, balanced, ferocious. They still lack mental discipline and have holes in the secondary that are yet to be exposed, but they do look like a legit playoff team. But top 5? Better than Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans? Not even close. Remember, we were losing 20-0 at halftime last week to Donovan McNabb.

Buffalo, in my opinion, still isn't a top 15 team. They'll use this 3-0 start to propel them to a nice 8-8 or 9-7 season. Fitzpatrick will earn the starting gig for at least one more year. They've got a hard-working, unsexy team and some nice players on D. But the secondary, O-line, and frankly the QB/RB/WR/TE positions are all mediocre at best. Anyone who calls Buffalo a playoff team right now is a victim to week 3 hyperbole.

As for Oakland ... they are still a bottomfeeder. McFadden looks great, but they haven't faced a real defense yet. They would be 1-2 if Nick Mangold had played on Sunday. Maybe they'll ride the easy schedule to 7 or 8 wins, but they aren't a real contender.

On the topic of idiotic radio statements, I heard someone (Chris Carter I think) say that the Rams have no chance at making the playoffs. None. They are 0-3, and their season is over. Really? Have you looked at their schedule? They could win 7 in a row from week 9 to 15. And have you looked at their division? It might only take 5 wins to capture the NFC West this year.

But then again, Chris Carter doesn't think Calvin Johnson is a top 5 receiver, because he "doesn't command double-teams." You would think a Hall of Fame receiver like C.C. would be able to recognize what a double-team looks like. In four years, I don't think I've ever not seen Calvin draw two guys.

As a segueway into the Lions-Cowboys pick, let's conclude this overreaction conversation by talking about the most over-talked-about player of the first three weeks. Tony Romo.

After week one, he was discussed for hundreds of thousands of hours for his two fatal turnovers in the fourth quarter. He was a choke artist, he was LeBron, he was the only QB in NFL history to make mistakes and lose a game.

Week two, he played through an injury and beat a really bad team in overtime. Then he beat another really bad team, this time with 6 field goals and no TDs. Now, he's turning down offers left and right to join Obama's Cabinet or lead the Military Intelligence Committee. In his spare time, Romo rescues kittens from trees in the middle of forest fires.

If you're counting at home, Romo is 0-1 against good teams and 2-0 against bad teams. He is a fringe top 10 QB in the league, and probably the fifth best player on his own team. Good player, nice guy, but through three weeks, Romo has been talked about nationally more than the 31 other quarterbacks in the NFL combined, and I'm about to rip the radio out of my car with my teeth.

This week, the phrase is "coach on the field." He overcame the absence of Miles Austin to lead the brainless Cowboys to a much-needed win over the mighty undefeated Redskins. Uh ... well, he did have Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, Felix Jones ... three pretty good players on his offense. And the MVP for Dallas in that MNF game was DeMarcus Ware by a mile. He won the game for them, almost single-handedly. This sounds harsher than I mean it, but Dallas won in spite of Romo.

The thing is, if you get within the 25 yard line on 6 occasions and don't score a single TD, the fault resides with the QB. I don't care how bad the blocking was or how much the backup receivers didn't know the playbook. That's 6 chances to throw a TD to Witten or Bryant against a vastly inferior defense. Not getting it done is unacceptable.

The bad news for Detroit is that Dallas won't have that same kind of bad luck again. If they move the ball effectively again, we can't count on them stalling in the red zone 6 times. Fortunately, Detroit's defense is about 65 times better than Washington's.

Let's look at the line real quick and then jump into the rest of the picks.

Lions (3-0) @ Cowboys (2-1)
Predicted Line: DAL by 1.5
Actual Line: DAL by 2

It's the super-hyped team against the super-hyped quarterback in a very losable matchup for both teams. As a Lions fan, I'm terrified of DeMarcus Ware and Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. I'm actually scared of Romo too. Dallas could very possibly kick the crap out of us in their home stadium.

But if I were a Cowboys fan ... how would I feel about the 3-0 Lions coming in to town with the league's best point differential and megatons of confidence? How would I feel knowing that they overcame a 20 point deficit on the road and held Adrian Peterson to under 80 yards? How the heck would I feel about seeing Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh, knowing we had no chance to contain either guy?

Both teams have a lot to fear.

For me, the biggest cause for concern is Ware. He makes the Best DE Alive Debate extremely hard. He might be playing at a higher level than Peppers right now, and the fact that Jeff Backus had one of the worst games of his career last week sure doesn't ease my anxiety. Ware isn't blockable, he isn't even containable. He'll move from left end to right end, like he did against Washington, and he'll beat you with speed or power. He isn't the run-stuffer that Peppers is, but he's a scarier pass-rusher in my opinion. And without a pass-blocking running back, I have no idea how we can give Backus any help. We could put Pettigrew on the left end, but that removes our short-yardage passing game, plus Pettigrew isn't the supreme blocker we all expected when he was drafted in the first round.

As I run through the possible options in my head, there's only two solutions for countering against a player like Ware:
1) Run the ball effectively.
2) Make quick passes.

Running the ball has been a disaster so far this season, so that leaves us with option 2. Stafford's job will be to make 1-second decisions and get rid of the ball before Ware kills him. . Sacks and turnovers are bad enough, but we could be looking at long-term injury again. If Jeff Backus got beat like a drum by Jared Allen, how is he going to compete against a guy who is bigger and faster? I expect to see tons of screens and quick slants, and consequently I wouldn't expect more than 5 or 6 catches from Megatron.

It's a shame, because Calvin has an awesome mismatch against Mike Jenkins, one of the league's worst starting #1 corners. Detroit probably won't have time for the deep pass, but maybe they'll figure out some creative ways to get Calvin the ball. Possibly on 2nd and short or 3rd and short, trying to catch Dallas in a run-stopping defense. The Cowboys have a crap secondary and crap linebackers, so if Stafford can get protection (HUGE if) it will be another great game for him and for Calvin.

I'm expecting an erratic performance, his worst so far of the season, but nothing detrimental. Something like 27-43 for 270 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. I'm not expecting anything on the ground, though they'll give Best plenty of carries in order to relieve Backus. Jahvid will have something like 17 carries for 65 yards.

On the other side of the ball, we're catching a huge break by not seeing Miles Austin this week. He's faster and stronger than people realize, and one of the best route-runners. He's a nightmarish matchup for our corners. Dez Bryant is too, but at least we can double-team him on passing downs. *EDIT* Dez might not play with the lingering hamstring injury.

The guy who we have no answer for is Jason Witten, because no defense really has an answer for him. He's like a faster Pettigrew with better hands. Dallas's other receivers are unproven and have sucked so far, but our secondary is due for an ugly game, so don't be shocked if Kevin Ogeltree has a 50 yard TD.

It looks like Felix Jones might be out with the shoulder thing, which would be nice. But his replacements aren't a huge downgrade. Our front 7 is doing a great job against the run. I absolutely love Stephen Tulloch. I'm not scared of Dallas beating us on the ground.

And then there's the most glaring mismatch in this game: our front 4 against their O-line. It's a mismatch at each position, and there's a good chance we'll finally have Nick Fairley in the lineup. Suh will get his usual double-teams, but I still think he'll have his best game of 2011. I think we'll rack up 4 or 5 sacks, force a couple turnovers, and hopefully keep Romo from settling into any kind of rhythm. As big of a mismatch as Dallas has with Ware, we have just as big of one with Suh. The Cowboys offensive line is really, really bad.

What scares me most about this game is that it's a second straight road game, and that Detroit is playing with the bullseye of a 3-0 team. They used up every ounce of guts they had last week in the comeback, and will have a really hard time if they fall behind. They've got to score early and keep this close; I don't foresee any dramatic comeback this week.

But Dallas is coming off a short week, they have more injury issues than we do, and they've struggled to beat crappy teams in consecutive weeks. Bottom line: Detroit has more talent, but I don't know how much more talent.

I'm completely torn on the outcome. I think Dallas probably pulls away in the second or third quarter and our comeback falls short. Final score, Cowboys 20-16.

*If Dez is confirmed out, I'll probably change this pick on Sunday.

Saints (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2)
Predicted Line: NO by 8.5
Actual Line: NO by 7

It's always risky to bet on big road favorites. I'm especially worried because the Saints rarely win by big margins. But then again ... Blaine Gabbert? I'll take the Saints 30-20.

49ers (2-1) @ Eagles (1-2)
Predicted Line: PHI by 11 if Vick plays, 7 if not
Actual Line: PHI by 9

I spent about an hour writing up some pretty great picks, and then this stupid website said "Oops, something went wrong,' when I posted it. And, I lost all my work. Great job blogspot.com. You suck.

Now I am way too mad to write all that awesome stuff again ... So here are the shortened-version picks.

I like the Eagles here, because although Vick may not be 100%, Alex Smith is barely 30% even when healthy. The 49ers offensive line can't stop anybody, and the Eagles have 3 Pro Bowlers on the D-line, plus 3 Pro Bowl corners. They don't need any offense to cover. Eagles 23-10.

Redskins (2-1) @ Rams (0-3)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: WAS by 2

This is probably the only time all season that the home team is an underdog despite being considerably better than the road favorite. Don't overthink it, just accept the gift. Rams 27-13. Upset of the week. If the Rams let me down again, I'm done with them.

Titans (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: Pick Em

These are two of the most perplexing teams in the NFL right now. I'm thinking this game ought to swing in Cleveland's favor because of the Kenny Britt injury. I'll take Cleveland 20-18.

Bills (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3.5
Actual Line: BUF by 3

Lots of road favorites this week. I think 7 in all. I can't take all the homedogs, but I like this one. Buffalo tricked a lot of people last week and consequently this line is a few points too high. Cincy is probably the best defense they've seen so far, which doesn't say much for Fitzpatrick and Co. I like Buffalo to win and stay undefeated, but I'm taking the points. Bills 18-16.

Vikings (0-3) @ Chiefs (0-3)
Predicted Line MIN by 3
Actual Line: MIN by 2.5

Both teams have 0-3 records, but the Vikings are playing like a 7-9 team while KC looks like 1-15. Minnesota has blown double-digit leads to 3 good teams; KC isn't trying anymore since losing their two best players in weeks 1 and 2. AP puts this game on his back and doesn't let the Vikings fall to 0-4. Minnesota 23-20.

Panthers (1-2) @ Bears (1-2)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 6.5

Well somebody has to win this game I guess. It's gonna be ugly. Chicago can't block anybody, but Carolina can't rush the passer. Cutler should have decent numbers, while Cam Newton struggles against Julius Peppers and the better-than-advertised Bears secondary. I'm thinking Bears pull ahead in the 2nd or 3rd quarter and win by a touchdown, 27-20.

Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (2-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 2.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4

Two really good teams, neither of which deserves to fall to 2-2. Houston has a couple of major mismatches in this game (Mario Williams against LT Jonathan Scott, Andre Johnson against CB Ike Taylor) but Pittsburgh has more talent overall. IfI had to pick the game straight-up, I'd probably take Pittsburgh by a hair. So with the 4 points, it's an easy call. Steelers 28-27.

Falcons (2-1) @ Seahawks (1-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 5.5
Actual Line: ATL by 4

It makes sense why this line is lower than you might expect. Matt Ryan can't win on the road, Seattle is only competitive when at home. But I'm going against common logic and thinking the disparity in team talent outweighs the location of the game. This game should be the catalyst to Tavaris Jackson's benching, and will help dispel Ryan's 'Can't Win on the Road' reputation. Falcons go crazy, 42-6.

Giants (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 1

Here's my possibly idiotic pick of the week. I'm taking the Cardinals to win outright. Here are the reasons why this is idiotic:
1) You should never take the NFC West against anyone.
2) Arizona just lost to Seattle.
3) Beanie Wells is hurt, Mario Manningham is healthy.

But here's why I like the Cards. First, I think the Giants are a lot worse than people realize, on both sides of the ball. Second, I think Kolb is better than people give him credit for and can take advantage of the Giants depleted defense. Third, it looks like the Giants two pass-rushing studs (Osi and Tuck) will be out, or at least playing hurt. And fourthly, this just looks like the token "Fitzgerald Goes Crazy" game where he single-handedly delivers a win with 12 catches for 180 and 3 scores. If the Giants can't get pressure on Kolb, they can't defend Fitzgerald. If Tuck and Osi both play, I'll change the pick. But for now, I like Arizona as my Stupid Pick of the week. 23-20.

Dolphins (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1)
Predicted Line: SD by 8.5
Actual Line: SD by 7

Miami looks like they have the makings of a 0-16 team, but they have enough talent to keep games close. San Diego, on the other hand, can annually win the division with 9 wins, and they know this. Consequently, they play half-assed every September, and this year has been no exception. Beating KC at home by 3 points is sort of pathetic. If Rivers wants to climb into the MVP conversation, he needs to shred the Fins defense, which is not a hard task. I actually wouldn't be shocked if Miami pulled the stunner, but I'll take San Diego to win outright, but not by 7. They don't have that killer instinct. Bolts 24-20.

Broncos (1-2) @ Packers (3-0)
Predicted Line: Not high enough
Actual Line: GB by 12

Yup, as I predicted. Green Bay is by far the best team in football right now and isn't getting the respect they deserve. Denver, meanwhile, is missing their two best defenders (Bailey and Dumervil) and their starting RB. This line should probably be above 20. I'll take Rodgers and the Pack in a beatdown, 45-10. Five passing TDs before halftime.

Oh, and this is the obvious Survivor pick, as well as the Lock of the week.

Patriots (2-1) @ Raiders (2-1)
Predicted Line: NE by 4
Actual Line: NE by 4

Tom Brady is 22-11 against the spread following a loss. What that tells me is:
A) Brady has only lost 33 times in his 10+ year career. Holy crap.
B) After a loss, he not only wins, but he kills teams.

Oakland is getting too much credit right now for beating the Jets. Without Nick Mangold, that Jets offense didn't have a prayer. I don't think there's much of a chance of Oakland keeping this one close. When the Pats go up early, Jason Campbell is going to have to keep pace. I don't see that happening. Pats 37-17.

Jets (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAL by 3

Mangold should be out again, meaning the Jets won't be able to run the ball. Plus teams can't run on Baltimore anway. I'd bet on Shonn Greene having less than 30 rushing yards. Antonio Cromartie is likely out too, meaning Flacco will have one side of the field to favor. But he doesn't really need to pass; the Jets couldn't stop McFadden and they won't be able to stop Rice. I have all sorts of good feelings about Baltimore covering. Let's say 26-15.

Colts (0-3) @ Bucs (2-1)
Monday night
Predicted Line: TB by 10.5
Actual Line: TB by 10

Josh Freeman is the comeback king, which means he doesn't typically blow teams out. Plus Indy looked impressive last week against Pittsburgh, keeping that game close. But this appears to be the debut start for Curtis Painter, and Talib will shut down Wayne. I doubt Indy puts up more than 10 points. Which makes it an easy cover for Tampa. 20-7.

That's it ... Go Lions!

Week 3 Wrap Up

2011-09-27T09:06:00.002-04:00

Picks: 10-6 this week. What I'm more happy about is that 4 of my 6 wrong picks were very close.

I specifically said that I thought the Lions would end up winning by 3, but I picked them to cover the 3.5. Of course they won by 3. In fact, if you reread my Lions prediction, I called the game exactly: "Lions fall behind, come back, then hang on, for a 24-20 win."

I also had dead-on analysis of the CAR-JAC and CLE-MIA games, picking both winners correctly but missing both spreads. Lastly, I anticipated the Steelers' struggles against the Colts Sunday night, but dumbly picked them to cover the 10 point spread anyway. I even called the second half defensive TD.

Of my 10 correct calls, only 2 or 3 of them were luck. I nailed the Baltimore blowout, the Tampa win by 3, the Seattle upset at home, the Packers blowout on the road, the Jets struggling without Nick Mangold, the Saints covering the 4 points, and the Chargers not blowing out the Chiefs like they should have. I forgot to make Upset and Lock and Survivor picks, but if I had, it would have been:

Lock - Pats
Upset - Seattle
Survivor - Green Bay (not San Diego because I already used them; you can only use a team once)

So on the season, I am
Overall: 23-22-3 (35-13 straight up)
Lock: 1-2
Upset: 2-1
Survivor: 3-0
Lions: 1-2 (but 3-0 straight up)

Pretty happy to be back over .500.

My fantasy week was crappy, except for two big wins. I won the B League with a 135 point masterpiece. I won the PPR Cornerstone league thanks to some brilliant games by Steve Johnson and Jimmy Graham. But I lost the A League (the money league) by 1 point, because Dez Bryant couldn't get an extra 7 yards on Monday night. What a disaster. I'm now 1-2 but have scored the third most points overall. I've lost on consecutive Mondays. It sure as heck would have helped if Antonio Gates didn't sit out. AGAIN. Freaking Evan Moore wasn't much of an addition at tight end. The other guys I considered picking up were Dickson and Cooley. I would be 2-1 if I had gone with either of them.

Oh well. I went 5-5 in the inconsequential leagues. In one larger league I was clairvoyant enough to play Torrey Smith, who got me 38 points.

I'm going to delete one of the leagues - it's the dumbest thing I've ever seen. 20 teams in the league, and you start 15 offensive players ... it's just way too big. I was forced to start the following players this weekend: Kerry Collins, Michael Spurlock, Delone Carte, Tandon Doss ... I'm 0-3 and my 1st round pick (Peyton) is out for the year, and now I lost Kenny Britt for the year. Goodbye Morgan Mayhem. I will not miss you.

This week the Lions go for 4-0 in Dallas. It's gonna be tough, as back-to-back road games always are. Right now Tony Romo is garnering more hoopla than any middle-of-the-road quarterback ever has, so I'm hoping we can shut him up. More on all that later.

I'm glad I watched the MNF game last night (even if Dez did let me down), because now I can provide a more accurate prediction for the Lions-Cowboys game. The Lions is gonna be close ... probably DAL by 1.

Picks to come soon.

GO LIONS!! 3-0!!!!!!!

Week 3 Picks

2011-09-20T12:56:00.009-04:00

I had a miserable week 2 picking the games, but managed to go 7-7-2, bringing me to a crappy 13-16-3 this year. But oh well, it's hard to complain when the Lions win by 45 points.

Let's briefly break down that stunning conquest and then jump into week 3's picks.

First of all, I'm going to be the fun-blame monster and point out the truth that if Jamaal Charles didn't go down early in the first quarter, this wouldn't have been a 45 point blowout. That's just the facts. The Chiefs were without Charles for 55 minutes and Eric Berry for the entire game, and then lost Tamba Hali in the third quarter. That's their 3 best players, not to mention Moeaki is on IR and Jon Baldwin was gone too. The Chiefs were an injury-ravaged dumpster fire, and the Lions job was to pummel them into oblivion. Mission accomplished.

But let's be real. Before he went down, Charles had 2 carries for 27 yards. The Chiefs put up 91 yards on 20 carries with the backups. Our run defense is vulnerable, and we've got Adrian Peterson coming up this Sunday. The Lions absolutely cannot buy into their own hype this early in the season. Remember 2007? That team started 6-2, highlighted by a 44-7 drubbing of Denver. Then we went 1-25 in the next 26 games, or 5-47 in the next fifty-two games to be exact. Of course the 2011 Lions are light-years more talented than the '07 bunch, but still. Can't afford to believe you are truly 45 points better than anybody.

The good news is, Schwartz and Stafford are on the same page. They are taking a low-key, 'we-can-still-play-better' approach, which seems forced and stuffy but is actually totally accurate. Whether they are doing it because they think they should or because they know it's actually true is debatable. Either way, I'm glad they aren't making outlandish predictions and proclaiming that we own the NFC North. Still 14 games to be played.

Against KC, Stafford had another nearly flawless performance. He threw the one terrible pick early, but luckily got a fumble on that same play and a fresh set of downs. He only missed maybe one or two passes all game, which is outstanding on 39 attempts. He wasn't sacked at all, a testament to Jeff Backus, who amazingly kept Hali out of the backfield all game. But give credit to Stafford too; you can tell he's learned how to position himself in the pocket, how to step up, and how to get rid of the ball quickly. His new favorite move, the stare-at-the-safety-then-throw-somewhere-else maneuver, is hugely effective. He did not have that tactic in his arsenal in 2010. I love the new Stafford.

The running game was once again pathetic, gaining 89 yards on 30 carries. If you think I'm being too harsh, consider that we've averaged 3.3 YPC in the last two games, and the league's worst YPC last year was 3.6 (Bengals). However, part of the problem was giving Keiland Williams about 5 goal-line carries in the fourth quarter. Best was awesome out of the backfield catching passes, and lining up all over the field like vintage Marshall Faulk. But he struggles between the tackles. I really wish we had Mikel LeShoure.

Once again, the receivers were outstanding, with Burleson leading the way with 7 grabs and 93 yards. Titus Young made a splash (5 for 89) and the tight ends chipped in. I'm loving Tony Scheffler's weekly endzone dance. Calvin Johnson had only 29 yards and is mostly a redzone target right now; the way Burleson is playing, that's okay. It just means Calvin's being double-teamed on every down.

Defensively, the Lions really benefited from the absence of Charles and the awfulness of Matt Cassel. We beat the crap out of a bad team, which is exactly what we should do. We had 6 turnovers, 2 sacks, allowed only 267 yards, and yet I'm still looking for things to complain about.
Dwayne Bowe's 45 yard catch was crappy defense. We gave up a lot of rushing yards, as a I previously mentioned. But the Chiefs did run 29 times compared to 23 passing attempts, which is odd considering they were down 3 TDs most of the game. Todd Haley did a horrendous job coaching the Chiefs in every aspect, and will very likely be the first coach fired in 2011. It's him or Sparano, with a sleeper's chance to Jim Caldwell.

Next week, Detroit goes to Minnesota to face Mr. Chunky Soup himself, and the 0-2 Vikings. Don't let the record fool you; the Vikings led both their games by 10 at one point, and played two playoff-caliber teams. AP has 218 yards and a 5.3 YPC right now, so he's obviously priority #1. Just like the KC game, Detroit needs to stack the box and force the inept QB to make passes. Percy Harvin can get open, but he's the only viable receiver Minnesota has. We'll put Houston on him, give him some support on passing downs, but other than that, it's gotta be 9 in the box against AP on 1st and 2nd down. And even with that strategy, it'll still be surprising if he doesn't go well over 100 yards.

The good news is Nick Fairley might return this week, which is perfect timing. Fairley won't start, but he can alternate with Corey Williams and give them a 3-headed monster at DT. I would love to see Suh, Fairley and Williams all out there together. Forget the pass rush, let's concentrate on stopping the league's best running back. Anyway, let's hope I can put my prejudices behind me (stupid New York teams), make some decent picks, and get above .500.

Week 3 Picks

Lions (2-0) @ Vikings (0-2)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 3.5

Minnesota has won 21 of the last 23 matchups between these teams, dating all the way back to Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper. For the first time since the Barry era, Detroit legitimately has the better team.

The biggest advantage is at the quarterback position, where Stafford is playing like a rising star while McNabb is a shell of his former self. McNabb has just 267 passing yards in two games, a 55% completion percentage, and doesn't have enough time in the pocket (or good enough receivers) to complete any deep passes. The dink-and-dump stuff doesn't work for him because his short-range accuracy is atrocious. His mobility is pretty much gone. He's kind of a sitting duck, and by the way, Suh hasn't had a big hit on a QB yet this year and might be due.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota gets DT Kevin Williams back from suspension, and that will be huge for their defense. Detroit struggles at running up the middle no matter who the DTs are, but he makes it pretty much impossible. He also doubles as a rare DT who can rush the passer, so Raiola and Peterman are in for a tough matchup. On the left end, Backus faces the superior Jared Allen, so some RB/TE help will have to come. Fortunately, Detroit can spare an extra blocker or two, because the Vikings secondary is very beatable.

Calvin Johnson has a mismatch no matter who he plays, but Antoine Winfield worries me more than most. He's the physical type of corner who can jam Calvin at the line and can tackle him in the open field. I hope to see some deep routes to try to take advantage of Calvin's speed advantage. Burleson should perform well against his former team, and hopefully Pettigrew will bounce back from the nagging shoulder injury and play his first good game of 2011.

I have a crappy feeling that Detroit will win by just 3, but I don't want to pick the Vikings just on that chance. So I'm siding with the favorite, denying the homedog, and predicting the Lions to be 3-0 and the Vikings to be 0-3. I know this is stupid, I know I'm going to regret it, but I'm doing it anyway. Lions fall behind, come back, then hang on, for a 24-20 win.

The Christian Ponder Watch begins.

Jaguars (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)
Predicted Line: CAR by 1.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3.5

Everyone is so excited about the Cam Newton extravanganza that they must have forgotten about the other 21 guys who also play for Carolina. The loss of Jon Beason should force this line down to CAR by 1, but Newton's amazing play has made that impossible. The Panthers shouldn't be favored by more than 3 against anybody. Not with their defense. Not until they win a game. 84% of bettors are on the Cam Newton Wagon already; I'm still not sold. Jags win 27-17, and Luke McCown redeems himself just a little.

Quick note on the Jags QB situation: it's too soon to start Gabbert. I know it's more fun to play the rookie. I know McCown went 6 for 19 for 59 yards and 4 INTs last week for a 1.8 QB rating. And no, I've never seen a QB rating lower than 2. I don't think I've seen one lower than 40, even in a video game. But still ... it's too early in the season to give up on your supposed starter, and there's no shame in getting killed by an elite defense on the road. Now that the Colts are a rotting carcass, the AFC South is up for grabs. Jacksonville has to play to win and hope Houston derails; they might make the playoffs at 9-7. Probably not. But maybe.

*EDIT* Gabbert will start after all. Panthers are favored by 4. Still taking Jags against the spread. I think the Panthers win straight-up but it's close. I'll say 27-24.

Broncos (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)
Predicted Line: TEN by 7.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7

These two stupid teams are among the most frustrating reasons why I'm 13-16 against the spread. First they both lose at home against terrible teams; then Tennessee kicks the crap out of Baltimore. Really?

That fluky win inflated this line, and as a result the Titans are 7-point favorites when they should only be favored by 4 or 5. I'm taking Denver even though I have no reason to believe in them. I just think this spread is goofy. Titans win 30-24 ...?

Dolphins (0-2) @ Browns (1-1)
Predicted Line: CLE by 4.5
Actual Line: CLE by 2.5

Ah, the Left Tackle Bowl! Let's just say whichever team wins, that team's LT is deemed the league's best, because I'm sick of the Long/Thomas debate. I'm going with Cleveland, mainly beause it looks like the Dolphins might be quitting on their coach already, and the Dog Pound isn't an easy place to play. But that Fins front 7 can stop the run, so Colt McCoy is going to have to earn this win. I'll go Browns 23-17. Congrats Joe Thomas.

*Fantasy Update - Won 2 of the 3 main leagues; would have won them all but his Tony Gonzalez outscored my Antonio Gates 19-0. Went 10-3 overall in the 13 leagues. My sneaky move was picking up Kevin Ogeltree (Dallas' #3 receiver) because I had injured Dez on the bench. It didn't work out too well. 50 yards. Not terrible, but if I had played Daniel Thomas instead I would won.

*Edit - Miami's CB Vontae Davis is out. Cleveland doesn't have any good receivers to take advantage, but still big news. Definitely feel good taking the Browns. Might start Mohammad Massaquoi (or Greg Little) if I needed a fantasy receiver.

Giants (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1)
Predicted Line: ?? Is Vick going to play ??
Actual Line: None.

Still no line. They're saying Vick 'might' play, but also saying they feel confident with former Northwestern QB Mike Kafka. My gut is that Vick is out. Concussions are no minor deal.

If it's Vick, I'd say PHI by 7. With Kafka, PHI by 1. I'll comprimise and say Eagles are favored by 4.

On Sunday night, we saw the Eagles defense exposed in the middle of the field. The linebackers just flat out stink, and so do the safeties. Teams will avoid Asomugha like crazy all year (Roddy White had 4 targets last week), while running up the middle and offsetting the pass rush. It's a pretty simple equation right now, and Philly needs to make some serious adjustments. Fortunately, the Giants don't have a good tight end or possession receiver (they gave that guy to Philly in free agency), so it's likely be a huge workload for Bradshaw and Jacobs. That will work somewhat, but I wouldn't expect more than 17 or 20 points from New York.

Philly should surprise people if Kafka plays. They won't have their dog-murdering leader, but they'll still have McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, Celek, Steve Smith ... more than enough play-makers to take advantage of a crap-tastic Giants defense. I'm going with Kafka and the Eagles, 23-17.

*EDIT* Vick will play. Line is PHI by 9. That's a tad too high if you ask me. New York always plays their best against the Eagles. And I'm thinking Vick's concussion could lead to a few bone-head plays and turnovers. Eagles 27-20.

Texans (2-0) @ Saints (1-1)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 4

Two really, really good teams. I can't find a decent reason to pick against either team. I think this line ought to be 3, but the Saints have a superior quarterback and they're at home, so I guess I'll take them, 28-23.

Patriots (2-0) @ Bills (2-0)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 8.5

The Bills can score, and the Pats defense can't stop anybody. But let's be real. Brady shouldn't be less than a 14 point favorite to anybody. I'll take the Pats, 45-20.

49ers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 2.5

This one's tough. Everything is working against San Fran ... they're traveling West to East for a 1pm game, they just got heart-broken last week against Dallas in OT, and Cincy is playing better than people realize. I'm a big fan of Harbaugh, but I don't see San Fran as a winning road team until they get a new quarterback. Which reminds me ...

Has there ever been so much build-up for a #1 pick this early in a season? Not since LeBron right? The "Suck for Luck" campaign is building steam for at least 5 teams already. Fanbases all over the country are dreaming of Andrew Luck as their quarterback. It's uncanny. Two weeks ago, I would have pegged Oakland, Washington, Miami, and Seattle as the frontrunners. Now it appears that Indy and KC are in the mix, along with maybe San Fran if they lose this one. Still liking Miami as a 2-14 team. I was way wrong on Washington. Rex Grossman is not bad.

Oh, I'm taking Cincy at home. 20-17.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)
Predicted Line: SD by 14.5
Actual Line: SD by 15

This was your classic "They Can't Make The Line High Enough" game. 82% of betting is on the team favored by 15. After the Chiefs 0-2 start and -79 point differential, not to mention a crushing injury to their best player, it makes sense to bet on the high-octane Chargers offense.

But speaking of injuries ... Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Michael Tolbert, and Antonio Gates are all on the injured list. San Diego is coming off an emotional loss to New England and might be flat. Plus they always stink in September. I think Rivers gets them off to a decent lead early, but doesn't kick the Chiefs into the hole. Also wouldn't be shocked to see speedy Dexter McCluster make a big play in Charles's stead. I like him as a fantasy pick-up.

Chargers get up 14-0 early, then coast. Final score: SD 27-16.

Jets (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 2
Actual Line: NYJ by 3.5

Speaking of team's being without star players ... here's one you might not have heard. Jets center Nick Mangold, also known as the best center in the NFL by far, is out for this game with an ankle sprain. He didn't even make the flight to Oakland. So while that isn't the juicy story of a Romo or Vick, it's just as important for the Jets offense. He's their best offensive player by a mile.

The other side of the coin ... Oakland stinks, and is overachieving just by being 1-1. They've played Denver and Buffalo and allowed 58 points - 6th most in the league. Their defense can't stop anybody. And their offense won't be able to move on the Jets.

But this is Oakland's home opener, and this line is too high considering Mangold's injury. I'm taking the Jets, and giving Oakland the cover. 17-15 Jets.

Ravens (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 2
Actual Line: BAL by 4

As I explained in the season preview, the Rams begin the schedule with 7 brutal games and follow that up with 7 easy games. But that doesn't mean they can start out 0-7. Sooner or later they've got to get a win. With Steven Jackson out and the Rams defense looking inept against the run, it's hard to imagine them getting that win here. Ray Rice should have another big day.

I'm starting to feel pretty confident that the Rams will become the first team to ever start 1-6 and win their division. Ravens take this one early and don't ease up. 31-20.

Falcons (1-1) @ Bucs (1-1)
Predicted Line: Pick
Actual Line: TB by 1.5

Big division game with both teams at 1-1. Both teams will bring it, knowing the importance of this one. I can't see any way this game isn't close. Tampa getting Tanard Jackson back from suspension will be underratedly important. I'm sick of betting for Matt Ryan on the road. He always lets me down. Tampa takes this one on yet another Freeman fourth-quarter comeback, 23-20.

Cardinals (1-1) @ Seattle (0-2)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 2.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 3.5

One of my philosophies is to not support crappy teams on the road. Arizona is a crappy team. And this is Seattle's home opener, plus the line shouldn't be above 3. That's three reasons to take Seattle. I hate everything about this game. Go Beanie Wells! Seahawks win 17-13.

Packers (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 5.5
Actual Line: GB by 3.5

Surprised by this line. The public hates Jay Cutler as much as I do, and the Bears offensive line appears to be in shambles. I still don't think people realize how stacked the Packers are. I'm calling for a huge blowout at Soldier Field. Packers by 27.

Steelers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8.5
Actual Line: PIT by 10

Man, this game sure looked different on the schedule a few weeks ago. Those damn Steelers have all the luck. Well, I guess we did face a Charles-less Chiefs last week ...

Speaking of the luck, Indy's chances at picking #1 are really starting to look serious. If they can't beat Cleveland at home, they can't compete with a still-pissed-off Pittsburgh team. No chance for Indy to not be 0-3.

But what about the spread? Isn't 10 points a bit much for Pittsburgh to cover, seeing as they are a ball-control offense who doesn't run up the score? Maybe, but it also wouldn't shock me if Pittsburgh's defense led to a TD or 2 late in the game. I'll take the Steelers in a modest blowout, 27-14, on Sunday night.

Redskins (2-0 ) @ Cowboys (1-1)
Predicted Line: Romo's Ribs! I mean, DAL by 5
Actual Line: ROMO'S RIBS! Holy crap, did you hear Romo had a PUNCTURED LUNG!!! What a stud!! He's such a hero!! OHMYGODISHEGOINGTOPLAYTHROUGHTHEPAINAGAIN?!?!

I'm getting so sick of sports radio lavishing over Romo like a wounder war hero. Dude played through some serious pain, won a game, it was awesome. But I'm so dang sick of hearing about it.

Aside from Romo, the Cowboys are also dealing with injuries to Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant ... in other words, their entire offense. For security purposes, I picked up Kitna in the league where I own Romo, and Ogeltree in the league where I have Dez. If all 4 offensive starters miss the game (a definite possibility), it will be Jon Kitna, DeMarco Murray, and Kevin Ogeltree on Monday night against the terrible Redskins defense.

There's still no line. I don't know what's going on, but I'm just taking Dallas because no way Grossman is 3-0.

GO LIONS.

Week Two Picks

2011-09-15T15:09:00.005-04:00

Chiefs (0-1) @ Lions (1-0)
Predicted Line: DET by 8.5
Actual Line: DET by 8

Wow. It took me a pretty long time, but I finally found the last game in which Detroit was favored by more than a touchdown.

Eleven years ago, the 9-6 Lions, led by Charlie Batch, headed into week 17 against the 4-11 Bears and infamous quarterback Cade McNown. Detroit lost that game, 23-20, and consequently missed the playoffs. I remember that game because I couldn't watch it; I had to work, at Meijer, pushing shopping carts in the snow.

Now, I am out of college, married, almost 2 kids, and the Lions still haven't played a playoff game since that fateful Decemeber day. Nor have they been favored by 7 points. This is wonderful but completely unfamiliar territory.

The line certainly makes sense on paper. Detroit outplayed a pretty good Tampa team, KC got destroyed at home by a supposed terrible team, and now Eric Berry is out. With Berry in the lineup, this line is probably Lions by 6 or 6.5. But with all the hype surrounding our Lions, it's no surprise that 76% of bettors are going with Detroit to win by 8, and that argument can easily be made.

To wit: Suh and Co. will dominate against KC's lousy O-line, Cassel looked clueless last week and everyone knows he's going to suck without Charlie Wies, and ohbytheway, Matthew Stafford is God's gift to the art of quarterbacking. Add in the injury to Berry and you've got the makings of a blowout.

On paper.

But Detroit has never played on paper. Last week was sort of an exception. We have always played down to inferior foes, and played our best against elite teams. Even back in the 90s.

Historically, Detroit hasn't been a dominant home team. Getting off to an early lead will be key, because that could potentially take Jamaal Charles out of the gameplan. He's the Chiefs best player, and possibly the most dangerous big-play running back in the league. The linebackers were great last week against Blount, but Charles is a completely different animal. It's definitely going to require 8 in the box, which is okay because our safeties excel in run support.

The toughest matchup for Detroit's defense is Chris Houston against Dwayne Bowe. Not only does Houston give up 3 inches and 40 pounds, but he's also going to see plenty of single coverage. Fortunately for Detroit, Matt Cassel sucks, so Bowe should only be able to find 6 or 7 balls for maybe 80 yards.

On the other end, Detroit has mismatches all over the secondary and with both tight ends. KC gave up 63 yards and 2 scores to Buffalo's tight end whom I never heard of. Brandon Flowers is a decent cornerback, but he doesn't have a chance against Calvin.

The only dangerous player on KC's defense is OLB Tamba Hali, who will definitely overpower Jeff Backus. Detroit needs to play it smart and give Backus some help; expect to see lots of Maurice Morris in the backfield on passing downs, giving Backus some help. Probably Pettigrew lines up next to Backus a lot and keeps Hali in check.

I feel really confident about a Lions victory, probably more confident than I have in 10 years. But the spread is a reflection of Detroit's slight overratedness, and a possible overreaction to Berry's injury. Detroit just hasn't earned the right to be 8 point favorites; Stafford has only won three games in his career, so let's not overreact.

Lions 27, Chiefs 21.

Browns (0-1) @ Colts (0-2)
Predicted Line: CLE by 2.5
Actual Line: CLE by 2.5

This is not at all what I think the line should be, but it makes sense. After last week's debacle, America will be anxious to bet against Kerry Collins. It's 56% action on Cleveland, although the Colts are at home, and they've won at least 10 games in 8 straight seasons. They may not have Peyton Manning, but they do have some proud veteran players in Freeney, Clark, Wayne, Brackett, Mathis, Saturday ... and with America completely bashing them for the past week, they might be eager to beat up on the Browns.

Cleveland has some key matchup advantages (Joe Thomas-Dwight Freeney stands out), but I just really see this as a Colts win. Low scoring, not pretty, but Colts win their first game without Peyton in 14 years. I'll say 19-14.

Buccaneers (0-1) @ Vikings (0-1)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2
Actual Line: MIN by 3

With Kevin Williams still suspended, the Vikings defense won't pose many threats to Josh Freeman, who barely had a chance to produce last week. This week I think he'll be much happier, and Mike Williams should have a big day, as will Blount. Minnesota just doesn't have the defense to stop a well-rounded offense like Tampa Bay.

On the other side, Tampa won't stop at putting 8 in the box. They'll likely go 9 on most plays, leaving Talib in single-coverage against Harvin. Defenses are going to be forcing McNabb to try to beat them all year. I'd expect AP to run for 80-90 yards but McNabb should struggle again. The 0-2 Vikings will be forced to start thinking about Christian Ponder.

Bucs win this one on the road, 34-24.

Packers (1-0) @ Panthers (0-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 11.5
Actual Line: GB by 9.5

This is about as big a spread as you'll see for a road team. 87% of betting is on Green Bay, a clear sign that the public isn't buying into Cam Newton's marvelous week one. Throwing for 422 yards against any defense is impressive, but the Cardinals might have the league's worst D in the NFL this year. On the other hand, Green Bay is probably the league's best, with apologies to the Steelers. They've got star players at 7 or 8 positions on D. It's unfair. For those of you who picked up Steve Smith off waivers, good move, but don't play him this week. Don't play any Panthers. Newton will be lucky to get out of there alive.

Rodgers won't have any issues whatsoever. 10 points is a lot for a road team, but I just don't see how this game can be close. Packers 38-13.

Not taking this as my survivor pick because I'd rather not take a road team unless I have no better option. Which leads me to ...

Seahawks (0-1) @ Steelers (0-1)
Predicted Line: PIT by 14.5
Actual Line: PIT by 14

I'll keep this short: Lock of the Week, Survivor pick, no doubt whatsoever. Steelers score 6 touchdowns, 4 on offense and 2 on defense. Not only does Pittsburgh have them outmanned at every single position, but Seattle has to fly from West to East for an early game, which is always a recipe for disaster. If you need a WR this week in fantasy, pick up Emmanuel Sanders or Antonio Brown. One of them, or maybe both, will score a 50 yard TD.

Dem Stellers er back. 38-6.

Ravens (1-0) @ Titans (0-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5
Actual Line: BAL by 5.5

After seeing Tennessee fail to compete last week against Jacksonville, it's curious that this spread is less than a TD. The matchups all swing in Baltimore's favor.

Tennessee only does one thing well, and that's the running game. Last week they forgot about that page in the playbook, and consequently lost. This week they'll respond to Chris Johnson's unhappiness and give him 25 carries. Too bad Balitmore doesn't let you run. Sonic will get maybe 70 yards, and that means lots of 3rd and longs for Matt Hasselbeck, which means sacks, INTs, and all sorts of bad things for the Titans.

Baltimore rolls again. Two straight blowout wins. Flacco for MVP?

Ravens 31-10.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Redskins (1-0)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 3.5

The classic Week Two Battle of Terrible Undefeated Teams. I always hate this game. One of these goofs is going to be 2-0.

Guess I'll take the Redskins. The whole 'West to East, 1pm' thing. 23-17.

Raiders (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3

A third West coast team going East for an early game. Oakland played Monday at midnight so they've got an even shorter week. Plus Buffalo just looked dang good against KC, particularly against the run, which is Oakland's strength. I'd bet real money on this game if I could. Bills win big, 30-13.

Jaguars (1-0) @ Jets (1-0)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 9
Actual Line: NYJ by 9

To cover a 9 point spread, you've got to score at least 9 points. Is this Jets offense even remotely good? They'll almost certainly win, but I've gotta take the points until I see more from Mark Sanchez. New York 23-16.

Bears (1-0) @ Saints (0-1)
Predicted Line: NO by 6.5
Actual Line: NO by 6.5

We've seen a trend over the last few years that the Saints don't usually cover big spreads. They aren't 'Run up the Score' guys. But they've got to be pissed coming off last week's Thursday night loss, knowing they are the best 0-1 team in the NFL. Sean Peyton has had an extra 3 days to prepare for the Bears D. Despite being without Marques Colston, I still love the Saints in this game. Mainly I just hate the Bears. Go figure. How about 34-13 in favor of the home team.

Cowboys (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2.5
Actual Line: DAL by 3

Tough call. I'm going with the homedog, because I think Dallas is all hype at the sexy positions but no substances in the trenches. Conventional wisdom says the Cowboys will score bunches of points and San Fran can't keep up, but I don't think logic ever applies to the Cowboys. Plus it's Harbaugh's home opener. Final score: Dallas 24, San Fran 23.

Texans (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 3

There are a lot of 7 point spreads this week, and I'm mildly surprised this isn't one of them. I've got Houston at 12-4 and Miami at 2-14, so the talent disparity is quite enormous in my mind. The Dolphins usually have an edge with CB Vontae Davis, but Andre Johnson is one of the few receivers he isn't able to stop. Miami has a B+ defense, but Houston will counter with an A- offense. On the other side of the ball, we've got an All Pro matchup with Jake Long against Mario Williams, which is a push. But Houston wins nearly every other battle, and wins this game big, on the road. Miami's homefield advantage is an oxymoron. Texans 28-16.

Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 7

Not fair because I heard the spread on the radio. It seems a little bizarre to say that anybody is 4 points better than the Chargers, but I don't think this line is a reflection of the Chargers at all. It's merely saying 'New England is in a league of their own.' Which is true. Rivers fights admirably, but Brady is the superior quarterback and competitor. Pats cover, 42-30.

Bengals (1-0) @ Broncos (0-1)
Predicted Line: DEN by 1
Actual Line: DEN by 3.5

In a sick way, this game might be entertaining to watch. Lots of highly motivated players: Orton trying to prove to his home crowd that he deserves to play; Dalton trying to prove that he's not a colossal doofus; Denver's defense trying to redeem itself. Neither team has much talent at all, but the best player in this game is probably Elvis Dumervil, who has a cake matchup against LT Andrew Whitworth. Cincy will try to offset Denver's scary DEs with Cedric Benson through the tackles, which shouldn't be too difficult. Meanwhile, Denver has 3 key injuries - Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd, and Champ Bailey. All three guys are questionable. Because of that, Cincy is probably the better team. Their defense is a little bit underrated. I'll take the road team in an upset, 24-20.

Eagles (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Line: PHI by 1.5

Philly definitely wins this game on paper; Asomugha can reduce Roddy White to nothing, the dynamic duo of DEs can rush Matt Ryan, and Atlanta does not have the speed to contain or adequately pressure Vick. But with all the emotion in the Georgia Dome as Vick makes his pseudo-triumphant return, I don't think this game will play out in a predictable manner.

Philly really has only one weakness, and that's the interior of the defense. They can be run on. And Michael Turner surprisingly looked full-strength last week. Expect Atlanta to run early and often with Turner, for no reason other than to keep the dog-killer on the sidelines. If they move the chains and eat the clock, they can keep this score low enough to give them a chance to win.

When Philly has the ball, they'll score almost at will. The only person who can defeat Michael Vick in this game will be Michael Vick. A couple errant throws or careless fumbles and it'll be a win for the Falcons. Atlanta's job is to keep Vick off the field, keep the crowd in the game, and keep the score low. At home, Matt Ryan is 15-6 against the spread. I like Atlanta by a late field goal, 27-24.

Rams (0-1) @ Giants (0-1)
Monday night
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 6

This line is preposterous. The Giants just lost to the Redskins! Their entire defense is hurt. Eli Manning looks absolutely godawful. And the Rams are coached by New York's former D-coordinator. Plus Hakeem Nicks is questionable, which is a bigger blow to the Giants than Steven Jackson's injury is for St. Louis. Running backs are easier to replace. Cadillac is going to have a huge game. I'm taking the Rams to win outright, and I'm making it the Upset of the Week. 23-17.

Go Lions!

Week One Recap

2011-09-13T09:17:00.003-04:00

First, the bad news. I went 6-9 against the spread this week, with one tie. If I had picked the games straight up, I'd have been 11-5. Those freaking point spreads killed me. I was particularly hurt by some special teams insanity - notably Ted Ginn and Percy Harvin, and some untimely injuries - Sam Bradford and Andy Dalton. If Bruce Gradkowski didn't come in and save the day for the Bengals, I'm sure the Browns would have triumphed.

Now, the good news.

The Lions won, by almost the exact score I predicted. The Steelers lost, by 28 points to their biggest rival while losing their starting RT for the season. And my 13 fantasy teams went 10-3, with all three teams that I care about getting off to 1-0 starts.

Overall, it was a pretty awesome weekend.

To make things even better, Kansas City (Detroit's week 2 opponent) got shellacked in their opener, and also lost one of their best players, Eric Berry, who would have been covering Calvin Johnson. I'm sad for Berry, a budding star from the 2010 draft, but I'm happy in regards to the week 2 matchup.

Let's quickly dissect each game, and how I managed to go 6-9 against the spread.

Packers 42, Saints 34
The opener went almost exactly as I predicted, but with a few unexpected special teams touchdowns. These are two of the best teams in the NFL, period. It's a shame somebody had to lose. The key story is Colston's broken shoulder; time to pick up Meachem and Henderson off waivers.

Lions 27, Bucs 20
I called Lions 27-13, so if the Bucs didn't get that TD with 1:30 left I would have nailed it exactly. This game was played out almost exactly how I described it.

The key was Matthew Stafford, who is making it difficult for me to continue criticizing him. He made some errant throws, particularly the pick-six, but his overall play was at least a B+. He basically played up to his level of hype for the first time in his entire career. Consider this:

-This game was only the third time that Stafford has started a game and won that game without getting injured. The other two times were home games against the terrible Redskins. This was Stafford's first road victory, and first victory against a good team. That's a double awesome bonus if you ask me.

-This was Stafford's best statistical game with a 118 QB rating. He completed 72% of his passes for a 9.2 YPA. He had never reached either of those figures before in any game. Only one other time in his short career has Stafford eclipsed a 95 QB rating, and that was the famously stupid Cleveland game in which he threw two ugly picks.

-Tampa's defense actually played pretty well.

-I think this was the first Lions game in two full seasons where I did not see Matt Stafford wearing a backwards hat on the sideline. We are making huge strides of progress guys.

There was a lot to like about this game besides the play of the quarterback. Suh and Calvin looked like their typical sensational selves. Stephen Tulloch looked absolutely phenomenal, holding LeGarrate Blount to 15 rushing yards on 5 carries. Burleson and Pettigrew played well, the O-line did good enough, and the cornerbacks held their own. Second-year safety Amari Spievey had a great game with 7 tackles, and Chris Houston made a real nice interception.

But of course there were some areas for improvement. Let's start with the rushing game, which accrued 126 yards on 35 carries for a dismal 3.6 YPC. Take out Burleson's 20 yard end-around and it's a 3.1 YPC for Best and Harrison. That's atrocious. Granted, Tampa is pretty stout against the run, but when you run the ball 35 times you ought to gain a lot more than 126 yards. I liked Detroit's commitment to the run; we kept Freeman off the field and dominated time of possession by 13 minutes. I just wished Best were a little more elusive and made at least one big play. On 21 carries, his longest rush was 9 yards.

The other eyesore was the kickoff coverage team, which gave up a 78 yard runback to Sammie Stroughter. All preseason long Detroit was stuffing returners inside their own 15. Then Tampa takes the first kickoff all the way to the 21. Fortunately, Detroit's defense responded and held them to 3.

There's not much else to complain about. The Lions won a road game against a playoff-caliber team and we didn't lose any players to injury. This Sunday against KC is shaping up to be another nice matchup. I am growing a beard and not shaving until the Lions lose.

Bears 30, Falcons 12
Chalk this one up to Julius Peppers. He won this game for Chicago, with two sacks, a forced fumble that led to a TD, and constant pressure on Matt Ryan. Chicago continues to relish the "Nobody Believes in Us" role. And I will continue to not believe in them.

Bengals 27, Browns 17
Lot of surprises here. Cleveland was much worse than anticipated, especially Colt McCoy. Dalton was okay, but maybe the Browns defense was terrible. All that being said, the Browns were up by 4 when Dalton got hurt, and it was probably Bruce Gradkowski who ruining this game for me.

Bills 41, Chiefs 7
My Upset of the Week was brilliant; the Bills offense was a machine, the Chiefs were horrendous in every way, and Eric Berry was lost for the season. Buffalo's defense is to be reckoned with.

Eagles 31, Rams 13
This game was closer than the score looks, and Bradford's injury sparked the blowout. Steven Jackson is gone for at least a week; Cadillac is a no-brainer off waivers. Vick ran for 97 yards but didn't pass the ball very well.

Jaguars 16, Titans 14
You give Chris Johnson 9 carries, you're asking for a loss. If I had Kenny Britt (5 catches, 136 yards, 2 TDs), I'd trade him while his stock is high. No way he'll have another 80 yard TD anytime soon. The Jags stink, but won because Tennessee has no identity or gameplan.

Ravens 35, Steelers 7
Seven Pittsburgh turnovers, two INTs for Reed, near-perfect game for Flacco ... this could have been any more beautiful.

Texans 34, Colts 7
I called Texans 41-7. If Schaub doesn't throw a pick 10 yards from the endzone I nail this pick exactly. Kerry Collins couldn't have been much worse. All this talk about the Colts getting Andrew Luck next year is absurd; there are at least 5 other teams who will be picking ahead of them. And even if the Colts were #1, they'd take someone else. Texans look sick.

Cardinals 28, Panthers 21
I'm speechless. Did Cam Newton really throw for 422 yards? On the road? Granted, the Cardinals defense is AWFUL, but I'm still amazed. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they lost the game, and more importantly lost their best defensive player (MLB Jon Beason) for the rest of the year with an Achilles injury. Their defense is dead meat. This game hit the spread exactly, ARZ by 7.

Chargers 24, Vikings 17
My Survivor pick was in jeopardy, as the Chargers were slow out of the gate, unable to tackle Peterson, and trailing by 10 at halftime. McNabb only had 7 completions for a hilarious 39 yards, so it was easy for San Diego to mount the comeback. Vincent Jackson (2 catches, 31 yards) had what will be his worst game of the season.

49ers 33, Seahawks 17
Both teams are horrendous, but Seattle is worse. I called this game dead-on but lost the ATS pick because of two special teams scores in the last quarter.

Redskins 28, Giants 14
Is it time for me to start eating my words about Rex Grossman? Or do the Giants just have a GVSU secondary? I don't know, but Eli was TERRIBLE once again, and the Redskins D is much better than I expected. Looks like they won't be getting Andrew Luck after all.

Jets 27, Cowboys 24
If you listen to sports radio, you've heard all about Tony Romo. Somehow he was the dominant story of week one, even though he did nothing special. He played pretty good (B+) in the first three quarters, and made two dumb mistakes to lose the game in the 4th. Big deal. Jets are well-balanced and smart. Cowboys are flash but no substance. They suck in the secondary and the O-line, and we'll see lots of games like this from Romo.

Patriots 38, Dolphins 24
Good news: New England's offense is unstoppable. Bad news: their defense looked lousy against Chad Henne. This game was totally predictable but still awesomely fun to watch.

Raiders 23, Broncos 20
Oops. Guess I whiffed on the Lock of the Week. Poor Kyle Orton's home game turned into a road game, with all the fans rooting against him. Denver is a freaking mess. Tebow will be starting by week 4.

Overall, week one was a learning experience in a lot of ways. A few teams proved to be better than expected (Jacksonville, Washington) while others were worse (Chiefs, Colts). I'm not worried about the Steelers or Falcons yet, and not buying any of the hype about Chicago, Oakland or Cam Newton. At least not yet.

Overall I'd say my preseason assessments were dead-on accurate for about 22 teams, and that's a pretty decent start.

Tigers have won 12 in a row. Week two picks up soon.

Week One Picks

2011-09-06T11:32:00.013-04:00

Saints @ Packers
THURSDAY NIGHT
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 4

Over the last eight years, defending Super Bowl champs are 8-0 in week one, with all of those games being played on Thursdays. This year, that could finally change. I've got the Packers going 14-2, but I've got the Saints winning it all ... so I am torn.

I see Green Bay getting off to an early lead, the crowd getting crazy, and the Saints comeback effort falling just short. Should be sloppier than expected, as the lockout ramifications are made evident. But both quarterbacks are elite, both offenses can score easily, and this will be one heck of a season opener.

It will be interesting to see who carries the ball for Green Bay; they've said Grant and Starks will split the carries 50/50, but I'll believe that when I see it. Also, will the Saints use rookie Mark Ingram much, or allow Pierre Thomas/Chris Ivory/Darren Sproles to handle the running back duties and give Ingram just a few touches? A lot of intrigue from a fantasy perspective.

Obviously Rodgers and Brees are must-starts, as are Jennings and Finley. I like Jimmy Graham to have a big game, maybe 8 or 9 catches and a score. The key storyline to this game will be how the Saints offensive line protects Brees; the tackles should have plenty of trouble with Clay Matthews and company.

I'm going with Green Bay and the over, 34-27.

Lions @ Bucs
Predicted Line: TB by 2
Actual Line: TB by 1

In honor of Tom Kowalski, I'll try to keep this as brief and impartial as I can.

I hate to say this, but I think Detroit might be the most overrated team in the NFL right now. That doesn't mean they aren't good or aren't capable of making the playoffs. It just means they are getting way too much hype for having accomplished nothing. On the other hand, Tampa is getting no hype, and went 10-6 last year in a brutal division.

The Lions near-flawless preseason gave the players tons of confidence and swagger, which is good. It also made them feel unbeatable, which is bad, especially on the road. When Tampa makes a big play (and they will), Detroit needs to respond on the field, not with stupid violence or tomfoolery, but with great execution of their gameplan. I love everything about Ndamukong Suh's vicious attitude, but I don't like when the rest of the defense initiates fights just because they want to be tough like Suh. That's what I saw this preseason.

The other aspect of overratedness is Stafford, who played a pristine preseason against some terrible defenses that weren't trying. Now it gets real. Tampa has a good secondary, they'll be doubling Calvin and forcing Stafford to think, and he hasn't shown an ability to make quick decisions yet in his career. I've no doubt he'll put up good yardage numbers and make a few good deep throws, but I'm more interested in his completion percentage this year, because that's how you sustain drives and move the chains. Pettigrew and Burleson are going to be key in this game.

I hate opening the year against Tampa, a talent-laden young team with a lot of continuity and confidence and a great young quarterback. But like Detroit, they have weaknesses that can be exposed.

The interior of the O-line is Tampa's only weakness on offense, particularly at center and right guard. This works perfectly for Detroit, as Suh will be unleashed, even against double-teams. Corey Williams and Cliff Avril will battle with LG Ted Larson and RT Jeremy Trueblood, and Detroit owns a slight edge in both matchups. VandenBosch will have plenty of trouble against Pro Bowl LT Donald Penn, but overall our D-line should dominate the line of scrimmage.

Josh Freeman is one of the best quarterbacks at avoiding the pass rush and buying time with his feet, but with Suh chasing him all day it might be his worst nightmare. It's up to Detroit's secondary to keep the receivers from breaking free. We could rack up 5 or 6 coverage sacks in this game if the corners do a great job.

Against LeGarrette Blount, Detroit should be fine. He's a two-down back who runs through the tackles, and with MLB Stephen Tulloch watching him all day, I feel good about our chances. We just have to avoid the one killer 70-yard run that Detroit typically allows. Hopefully the OLBs will be able to play the entire game in short coverage against slants and curls, keeping Freeman from checking down. This will work if Suh and Williams dominate their matchups, which they likely will.

Nick Fairley is doubtful for the opener. but frankly I'm okay with that. Corey Williams is a better player right now anyway.

Unless the Lions defense gives up huge plays, we should be able to hold Freeman to a minimal game and give our offense a chance to win. All the pressure for this game falls on Stafford, and surprisingly, I think he'll come through.

Not so much because Stafford is the great quarterback everyone thinks he is, but moreso because this matchup is favorable. With safety Tanard Jackson out with a suspension, it'll be Sean Jones who assists CB Aqib Talib with the double-coverage of Calvin Johnson. Despite the fact that Talib is a very talented corner and strong enough to jam Calvin at the line, he doesn't have the speed to chase Calvin on deep routes, and will get burned at least once. Expect Calvin to have only 4 or 5 receptions, but to make them count for about 80 yards and a score. Of course he'll be the primary target in the red zone too, so he might have a monster game.

Tampa's weakness on defense is the pass-rush, which is excellent news for Detroit. Jeff Backus will be just fine against rookie DE Adrian Clayborn, and might actually dominate that matchup. DT Gerald McCoy is stout against the run and will manhandle Raiola and Peterman, but Detroit isn't looking to run much through the tackles anyway. Jahvid Best will do most of his work on stretch plays and counters, and of course screen passes. We'll probably look to plow through the middle a bit on short-yardage situations, but not much on first and 10.

I'm not sure if it'll be Harrison or Morris or newcomer Keiland Williams who handles the short-yardage stuff. Probably a combination of all three. Each guy should get 3-4 carries, and Best will have 15 carries and 5 catches. Detroit's running game will be mostly a nonfactor in this game, as it should be all season.
As I said earlier, the key for Stafford will be accuracy and decision-making. If he isn't under pressure from the ends, and I don't think he will be, he just needs to make good passes and avoid interceptions. He can't put the defense in bad situations by throwing picks; this is a game where it's better to punt than to try to squeeze a pass into triple coverage.

Despite the fact that the Lions are overrated and Tampa is underrated, I still have the Lions winning outright, and thus against the spread. Detroit may not be the better team overall, but I like the way we match up with them, especially on the D-line. Lions 27, Tampa 13.

Falcons @ Bears
Predicted Line: CHI by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 3

I don't know what's more shocking, the fact that Chicago is a home underdog, or the fact that 81% of bettors are backing Atlanta. America is smarter than I thought!

These are two teams that I think will decline in 2011, but Atlanta is still far better than Chicago. Roddy White will be unguardable, and I think it'll be Harry Douglas, not Julio Jones, who steps up as the #2 WR. In fact, I don't think Jones will be Atlanta's most productive rookie in this game; RB Jacquizz Rodgers has been named the third-down back, and should get 3 or 4 catches in this game.

Atlanta won't be able to run whatsoever in this game, and Julius Peppers is going to destroy LT Sam Baker. But on the other side of the ball, Chicago will execute a typical Cutler/Martz mess: 40 passing attempts, 2 TDs, 3 turnovers, 5 sacks ...

I'm expecting an ugly, turnover-filled game, lots of sacks on both sides, and plenty of punts. But Atlanta has the superior offense and will make big plays when needed. I'm determined to pick against the Bears as much as possible this year. Falcons 24, Bears 14.

Bills @ Chiefs
Predicted Line: KC by 4 (Cassel is questionable)
Actual Line: KC by 5.5

It's starting to seem like Cassel will play, though still not 100%. If he's out, the line probably drops to KC by 3 with left-handed Tyler Palko under center.

I like this as my Upset of the Week. Everything stacks up well for the Bills.

For starters, KC is the league's most run-heavy team, and Buffalo specializes in run-stuffing defense. Jamaal Charles might break free for a big gain, but should be held in check most of the day. The Bills defense overall is vastly underrated, and should create a few turnovers against whichever lousy QB plays for the Chiefs.

It won't be spectacular for Buffalo's offense either, but I think we'll see the best game of CJ Spiller's career and another efficient effort from Fitzpatrick. Even with Cassel, it'll only take the Bills about 20points to win this one, and I think they can muster that.

Bills 20, Chiefs 16.

Colts @ Texans
Predicted Line: HOU by 7.5 (Manning is officially out)
Actual Line: HOU by 9

Holy crap. Is there any other player who could make a Vegas line swing by 10 points? The line was IND by 1 just two weeks ago.

People have been saying for years that Indy is a bottom-five team without their quarterback. Now it's up to Kerry Collins to prove them wrong. The 38-year old has only been with the Colts for about 2 weeks, and has pretty much lost any arm strength he used to have. He's never been particularly accurate. Plus, he'll have a crappy O-line in front of him trying to keep Mario Williams out of the backfield.

On the other side of the ball, Houston will have their way against the Colts, like they always do. The more I look at this game, the more I see a blowout, and a sign of things to come. The shift of power in the AFC South is upon us.

Texans 41, Colts 7.

Eagles @ Rams
Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5
Actual Line: PHI by 4.5

This is actually a tough matchup for Philly, pitting the Rams' strengths against the Eagles weaknesses, and vice versa.

Steve Spagnuolo is very familiar with Andy Reid's offense, and will be capable of harassing Vick and creating sacks and turnovers. I'm sure Vick manages a good fantasy day, but maybe not a real-life day. It would be wise for Reid to run the ball conservatively with McCoy and Ronnie Brown, but that's not his style.

The Eagles excel in pass coverage, with three Pro Bowl CBs on the roster. Unfortunately, the Rams don't really have a #1 receiver. Putting Nnamdi Asomugha on Mike Sims-Walker is like buying a pack of gum with a $50 dollar bill and not getting any change. Bradford is superb at reading defenses and making smart passes, thus I think he'll take advantage of mismatches with slow linebackers and complete passes to guys we've never heard of.

Steven Jackson should be able to run against the Eagles questionable linebackers and safeties, while the Rams try to keep Vick off the field by controlling the clock. Also, St. Louis doesn't want to get Bradford killed by the trio of excellent pass-rushers, so they'll try to keep him out of 3rd and longs by running the ball early and often. If the run gets stuffed, the Rams are dead, but I don't think it will get stuffed.

I like to bet on home underdogs, especially when the home team is good. Philly will need a few weeks to gel together and start playing as a team. They'll still get the win, but it will be extremely close. Eagles 24, Rams 23.

Steelers @ Ravens
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Acual Line: BAL by 2.5

No surprises here. These teams play each other twice a year plus once in the playoffs. It's always a deathmatch. The Steelers have won 6 of the last 8, but each game has been decided by 4 points or less except the 2010 playoff game in which the Ravens blew a double-digit lead and lost by 7. I think it's safe to say Baltimore is the better team on paper, while Pittsburgh is the better team on the field.

If the line were 3, I'd take Pittsburgh. But since it's less than a field goal, this is basically a straight-up pick, and I am leaning towards Baltimore for a few reasons:

-Pittsburgh lost the Super Bowl. Teams that lost the Super Bowl are typically bad in season-openers the next year. For example, Indy got steamrolled last year in their week 1 loss to Houston.

-Baltimore outplayed the Steelers in the AFC Championship but lost because of some crappy luck. They'll be out for vengeance.

-Pittsburgh had a terrible offseason in terms of dealing with the lockout; James Harrison said some evil things about the Commish, Hines Ward celebrated his Dancing with the Stars victory by driving drunk and getting arrested, and Rashard Mendenhall watched his reputation get decimated into a joke. I don't think they'll be entirely focused.

-Nobody can run on the Ravens, but especially not Mendenhall. In three games against them last year, he managed a YPC of about 2.7.

-The Steelers always struggle in pass protection, but currently 3 of their starting offensive linemen (all of whom will play) are nursing injuries, including Pro Bowl center Pouncey.

However, all that being said, this game is going to be a bloodbath and come down to a few key plays late in the game. I think Baltimore pulls it out 24-21.

Bengals @ Browns
Predicted Line: CLE by 5.5
Actual Line: CLE by 6.5

With 86% of the betting on Cleveland to win by a touchdown, it's clear that nobody has any faith in Andy Dalton's first career start. And why should they? His QB rating was about a 63 in the preseason, and he looked absolutely abysmal.

I'm jumping on the Hate Dalton bandwagon. This line should probably be higher. Cleveland is a complete team, only a WR away from being competitive. Cincy is in shambles. Their offense will be lucky to gain 200 yards. I would recommend picking up the Browns defense in any fantasy league where you don't feel good about your starting unit.

Cleveland 29, Cincinnati 10

Titans @ Jaguars
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: No Line. Garrard was just cut yesterday, so no line has been posted yet. I'll just assume it's TEN by 3.

These are two of the most dysfunctional teams right now, with a slight edge to Jacksonville who just cut their starting QB just 5 days before game 1. Now Luke McCown will start under center, which probably isn't a bad thing, but it's still bizarre.

The only winner in that situation is Blaine Gabbert, who is much closer to seeing the field. I'm also pretty glad I pegged the Jaguars for 3-13. They're obviously in a world of trouble.

Tennessee just signed their best player to a long-term deal, and not a moment too soon. Without CJ this might have been a close game. With him, Tennessee will control the clock, Hasselbeck won't be asked to do much at all, and the Titans crappy defense will look respectable against McCown and the injured MJD. This is probably the week 1 game that I'm least interested in watching.

I'll say Titans win on the road, 20-6.

Seahawks @ 49ers
Predicted Line: SF by 5
Actual Line: SF by 5.5

Tavaris Jackson is kind of the Andy Dalton of the NFC. Nobody wants to go anywhere near him, and consequently this line is exaggeratedly high. San Francisco is terrible, their quarterback is abysmal, their defense is mostly terrible, and this is the first pro game of Jim Harbaugh’s coaching career. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a playoff win against the defending champion Saints.

And the Niners are favored by almost a touchdown?

Of course it doesn’t surprise me, because the national assumption is that Tavaris Jackson is as bad as bad can be. And while that’s partially true, he probably isn’t much worse than Alex Smith. Both QBs have been in the league for about 5 years, their completion percentages and YPAs are nearly identical (Tavaris is actually slightly better in both), and both have a career QB rating in the mid 70s. The only difference is that Smith has played in 18 more games and thrown 900 more passes while TJ has rushed for 100 more yards.

The other difference, of course, is that the Niners actually have weapons on offense. They’ve got a top 10 player at TE and RB, and a trio of underperforming receivers who were drafted in the top 10 (Braylon, Crabtree, Ginn). Seattle has one-year wonder Sidney Rice and former Raider Zach Miller. Both O-lines stink, both secondaries stink, and as mentioned, both quarterbacks really stink.

So that brings me back to the initial reaction … why does San Fran deserve to be 6-point favorites? Is it simply because they have stud linebacker Patrick Willis? Is it because Jim Harbaugh is charming and Pete Carroll is a crook? Is it because everyone in the country likes San Fran and dislikes Seattle? Or let’s be honest, is it just because Tavaris Jackson is black?

I don’t know, but I’ll take the points. San Fran wins a turnover-plagued monstrosity, 21-17.

Panthers @ Cardinals
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 7

Speaking of quarterbacks that nobody likes, 88% of betting is on Arizona to win by a touchdown. What a shock, nobody believes in Cam Newton.

I’m not rushing to pick up the Cardinals DST in this game, but I do have their kicker in most of my leagues. This should be high-scoring, as both defenses are completely awful. Cam Newton will be unspectacular, handing the ball off to DeAngelo at least 25 times and probably only throwing 12 or 15 passes. With their dominant offensive line, Carolina should keep the ball on the ground this entire season. Both DeAngelo and Beanie Wells are obvious fantasy plays on Sunday and both should rack up 100+ yards.

Although Arizona had 5 wins last year and Carolina had 2, the Panthers were probably the better team on paper, especially when you factor in injuries. I don’t get this spread. Is Kevin Kolb worthy of being a 7-point favorite already?

I guess I’ll take the Cardinals at home, but not a touchdown. How about 26-24.

Vikings @ Chargers
Predicted Line: SD by 7.5
Actual Line: SD by 8.5

Future MVP Phillip Rivers is going to get off to a monster start here, facing a barebones Vikings defense that was ravaged by free agency, injuries, and suspensions. If you give Rivers time in the pocket, you pay. Both Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates are bound for monster games. The fantasy rankers at ESPN have V-Jack 6th this week. I have him 2nd, behind only Andre. Gates is easily the #1 tight end, and might have 390 receiving yards.

With the Chargers leading by 28 at halftime, this might be a good game for Ryan Matthews to get going. The Williams Wall is gone (one in free agency, one suspended), so there should be plenty of holes. That is, unless Norv Turner dials up the Belichickian run-up-the-score gameplan and the Chargers win by 60.

I wouldn’t bench Peterson under any circumstances, but don’t expect too much. McNabb won’t do anything except scowl on the sideline. This will be ugly. Chargers win big, 42-13.

Giants @ Redskins
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG 3

While the Lions dominated the preseason like no other, Washington may have been the second best team in the games that didn’t count. Rex Grossman looked pristine, going 34 for 53 for 407 yards. If Rexy maintains a 7.6 YPA and 64% completion percentage all season, I’ll legally change my daughter’s name to Rex Grossman Morgan. Really.

No, all Rex did was beat up some scrubs trying to make the 53-man roster, and now people are predicting a turnaround season for him. A lot of folks are also hyping up Tim Hightower and the vaunted “Mike Shanahan Zone-Blocking Scheme!” but it’s not 1998 anymore. If there’s anything the Giants are good at, it’s stuffing the run and getting after the passer. Rex and his offense are going to be under duress all game, and despite all the injuries in New York’s back 7, Grossman lacks the accuracy to take advantage. Washington’s not going to score much at all this entire year. They just don't have any playmakers.

While Rex looked sparkling in the preseason, Eli Manning looked horrendous. It was bad timing for him to compare himself to Tom Brady, that’s for sure. But against the sorry Redskins defense, Eli will get the job done. It might not be pretty, but it’ll be enough.

Giants 24, Redskins 13.

Cowboys @ Jets
Sunday Night
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 4

Oh man. Why don’t Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez just have a whitest-teeth competition instead? Or they could wear backwards hats and see who can look more carefree on the sidelines. This is possibly going to be the most annoying game of all time.

Truth is, both teams struggle in pass protection and both QBs have a lot to prove. Revis will eliminate Miles Austin (I am benching him for Sidney Rice in the Morgan Matrix league), but Dez and Witten should have big games. Whichever team runs the ball better will probably win, and the Jets have a much better O-line and much better linebackers.

I’ll say New York 26-20.

Patriots @ Dolphins
Monday Night
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5
Actual Line: NE by 7

When you’ve got a home underdog giving 7 points and still 85% of the public is betting on New England … that means the line is too low. Either that, or Vegas is going to make a ton of money if Miami keeps this close. More people are betting on this game than any other game, by far.

This line should probably be NE by 12; even then I would have to take the Patriots. There’s just no reason to believe this won’t be a blowout.

Pats 35-6. Dolphins fans chant "We Want Luck" in the second half.

Though the outcome of the game won’t be interesting, some of the play on the field will be. I’m riveted to watch Haynesworth, Ochocinco, Andre Carter, Brian Waters, and all of Belichick’s new toys, not to mention how Brady makes use of his 2-TE sets and 2 rookie running backs. My hunch is that Ocho gets shut down by Vontae Davis and tight end Aaron Hernandez has 10 catches for 150 yards. Glad I own Brady in several leagues.

Raiders @ Broncos
Monday Night
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3

Before we get to the pick, how about a bonus question: how many times will ESPN show Tim Tebow on the sidelines from kickoff to 0:00. I will set the over/under at 16.5.

And the results are in. 97% of the public is betting the over.

As I've said a few times already, nobody is realizing how bad the Raiders will be without Nnamdi. I don't know if they'll even try. Why would they? Denver absolutely crushes them, 52-6, and Knowshon Moreno has 200 total yards and 4 TDs. That's my idiotic prediction of the week.

So to recap, I've got the Lions winning and the Steelers losing, and if that's not wishful thinking I don't know what is. My Upset of the Week is Bills over Chiefs, and the Lock of the Week is Denver -3 against Oakland.

I'm also going to start doing a Survivor pick each week, where I pick one team to win straight-up. The rules are you can't use any team more than once. This week I'm taking the Chargers. I probably should save them, but I don't want to screw up week 1.

That's all I got. GO LIONS!!

PS - I don't think comments work anymore on this site. I don't know what's going on. This site kind of sucks, maybe I should start using a different site?

Over/Unders

2011-09-06T11:13:00.002-04:00

The over/unders for how many games each team will win, according to Vegas, and my pick. I'll revisit these at the end of the year and see how I would have done.

Arizona: 6.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 2

Atlanta: 10.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 7

Baltimore Ravens: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 3

Buffalo Bills: 5.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6

Carolina Panthers: 4.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 5

Chicago Bears: 8.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 9

Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5 UNDER
Level of confidence: 2

Cleveland Browns: 6.5 OVER
Level of confidence: 5

Dallas Cowboys: 9; EVEN

Denver Broncos: 6; UNDER
Level of confidence: 4

Detroit Lions: 7.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 5

Green Bay Packers: 11.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 7

Miami Dolphins: 7.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 9

Minnesota Vikings: 7; OVER
Level of confidence: 2

New England Patriots: 11.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7

New Orleans Saints: 10; EVEN

New York Giants: 6.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 2

New York Jets: 10; EVEN

Oakland Raiders: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 8

Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 7

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6

San Diego Chargers: 10; OVER
Level of confidence: 9

San Francisco 49ers: 7.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 3

Seattle Seahawks: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 5

St. Louis Rams: 7.5; OVER
Level of confidence: 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8; OVER
Level of confidence: 6

Tennessee Titans: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 5

Washington Redskins: 6.5; UNDER
Level of confidence: 8

*Note that the Colts and Chiefs aren't listed. That's because their QBs are unlikely to play week 1.

NFL Preview: Miami through Washington, plus Playoff Picks & Season Awards!

2011-08-30T09:43:00.009-04:00

(See Arizona through Kansas City previews below...)

Miami Dolphins:
2010 season: 7-9
My 2010 prediction was: 10-6

21st in total offense; 16th passing offense; 21st rushing offense
6th in total defense; 8th in passing defense; 7th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Twelve weeks into the 2010 season, the Dolphins were 6-5, with all 5 loses against playoff teams. They ended the season 1-4, with three loses against non-playoff teams. During those five games, Henne’s QB rating was a 62.

Key Additions: OC Brian Daboll, RB Reggie Bush, ILB Kevin Burnett, OT Marc Columbo, 1st round pick OG Mike Pouncey, 2nd round pick RB Daniel Thomas, QB Matt Moore

Key Loses:, RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, ILB Channing Crowder, QB Tyler Thigpen, and OC Dan Henning

Main question: Can a very good defense overcome a very bad offense?

That’s an easy answer. Nope. But let’s break it down just for fun.

The Fins thought they found a franchise QB back in 2007 when they took Henne with the first pick in the second round. He started slow, showed some promise, and became a bonafide sleeper. Then last year, he fell completely apart in the last five games. As we’ve seen many times, QBs who end the season on a terrible streak don’t usually recover.

The offseason was miserable for owner Stephen Ross, who furiously pursued Stanford’s head coach to no avail, and then was forced to retain his current coach, mafia boss Tony Soprano. Then the same thing happened with his quarterback; when Ross and Parcells couldn’t pull off a trade for Kyle Orton, they settled for their current QB. Now you’ve got a coach and a quarterback who know they aren’t wanted. Sounds like a winning combination, no?

On top of that, you’ve got a rookie running back who looks terrible and might be slower than Brandon Pettigrew, and then Reggie Bush, a glorified novelty act. Henne has solid receivers and a strong arm, but lacks accuracy and decision-making. The O-line is going to be a strength, with megastud Jake Long at LT and capable rookie Mike Pouncey at center, plus serviceable guards Richie Incognito and Vernon Carey. But the thing about having a good offensive line is you need someone to run behind it. Miami’s offense is going to suck.

The defense, which ranked 6th last year, only lost one starter in Crowder, but replaced him with a better player in Burnett. The D-line is adept at stopping the run and the outside linebackers can get to the passer. Cameron Wake had 14 sacks and rookie Koa Misi had 4.5. Karlos Dansby is a stud ILB and Vontae Davis is a stud CB, possibly the third best in the league behind Revis and Asomugha. Strong safety Yeremiah Bell is a great run-stopper and Sean Smith is an excellent #2 corner. Overall, this unit is one of the best in the league, and would be recognized as such if the offense didn’t betray them on a regular basis.
A lot of teams, such as Cincy and Buffalo, are hoping that strong defenses outweigh their crappy offenses and keep them competitive. Miami is hoping for the same thing, but they have too many variables working against them. The players lack motivation, knowing that the coach and quarterback will be replaced as soon as a replacement is found. It wouldn’t shock me to see the defense tank and steer the Dolphins towards a top 5 pick and a new quarterback to build around. I fully expect Miami to begin the year 0-5 against a brutal schedule, and it’ll be tough sledding to escape from the bottom of the AFC East. Final prediction: 2-14.

Minnesota Vikings:
2010 season: 6-10
My 2010 prediction was: 11-5

23rd in total offense; 26th passing offense; 10th rushing offense
8th in total defense; 10th in passing defense; 9th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Brett Favre was bad last year, with a 69.9 rating, 7.0 YPA, 11 TDs and 19 INTs. But Donovan McNabb wasn’t much better – 77.1 rating, 7.1 YPA, 14 TDs, 15 picks.

Key Additions: QB Donovan McNabb, 1st round pick QB Christian Ponder, OT Charlie Johnson, WRs Devin Aromashadu and Michael Jenkins, 2nd round pick TE Kyle Rudolph, DT Remi Ayodele, OC Bill Musgrave, 3rd round pick DT Christian Ballard, linebackers coach Mike Singletary

Key Loses: QB Brett Favre, WR Sidney Rice, OT Bryant McKinnie, DE Ray Edwards, DT Pat Williams, OLB Ben Leber, CB Lito Sheppard, FS Madieu Williams, and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell

Main question: How far can AP carry them?

Few teams lost more than the Vikings did this offseason. Defensively, they lost four key starters. On offense, they lost a quarterback, a left tackle, and a starting receiver. Granted, the quarterback was putrid and the tackle was substandard, but the replacements aren’t any better. And nothing has been done to replace the receiver or the defenders except signing some scrubs and cast-offs and rookies. In all, it was a very Lions-esque offseason for the Vikes.

Replacing Brett Favre with Donovan McNabb is like finding out you no longer have cancer but you now have AIDS. Maybe that isn’t a funny joke. Good thing I don’t have to be politically correct. Anyway, McNabb stinks, he’s been washed-up for several years, and he’s still a superstar in his own mind. He’s the worst possible veteran for a rookie to learn the ropes from. Other than Favre of course.
Since Donovan has a crappy arm and no receivers, expect a dismal passing season, a sub-60 completion percentage, and tons of turnovers. I think Percy Harvin will have pretty good numbers since he’s the only viable receiver, especially as the Vikes utilize a heavy dose of two-TE formations. Shiancoe and Rudolph are both capable receivers with good hands, but are both big enough to pass-protect. That will help compensate for a lackluster offensive line with shaky tackles, including LT Charlie Johnson who completely stunk on the Colts. Johnson replaces McKinnie, and this is a major downgrade for the Vikings.

Of course, the Vikings have the league’s best running back, so they’ll survive on offense. Peterson doesn’t need gaping holes to maintain his 4.5 YPC and surpass 1,300 yards this year. LG Steve Hutchinson is nearing 35 years old, but still plenty good.

The issue offensively is going to be confusion of identity. Obviously, this should be a run-first, control-the-clock, grind-it-out offense, giving AP 340 carries, and using Toby Gerhard a little bit for change-of-pace. But with new O-coordinator Bill Musgrave, it might distort into a pass-heavy, West-Coast-Wannabe fiasco that underutilizes its best player and allows an insane amount of sacks. That would be best case scenario, of course, for the Lions.

As for Christian Ponder, I think he’ll have to wait until at least the second half of the season before he sees the field. He’ll have plenty of chances to learn what NOT to do.

The offense is going to be messy as they try to replace Favre and McKinnie and Rice. But the defense might be in even more trouble replacing Edwards, Leber, FS Williams and DT Williams. They still have their 3 best defensive players: Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, and E.J. Henderson, plus they retained solid starters in Chad Greenway and Antoine Winfield. But picking up Eric Henderson, E.J.’s little brother, was just silly at outside linebacker. There’s no room for nepotism in the NFL. Ayodele and Brian Robinson are crap replacements on the D-line, and CB Cedric Griffin is recovering from an ACL tear. It’s a defense with a few bright spots, but mostly drear.

The 8th ranked defense is probably going to fall into the mid-teens, while the 23rd ranked offense doesn’t get any better. The fans will want to see Ponder while McNabb struggles, Brett Favre will probably threaten to un-retire, and overall, it’s going to suck to be a Vikings fan. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily finish worse than last year’s 6-10.

Aside from their own division and the tough NFC South, Minnesota gets bonus games against the hapless Cardinals and Redskins, two juggernauts of suckiness. They also get easy wins against Denver and Oakland and Carolina, so 5 or 6 wins should come easy. The question was, how far can AP carry them? I’ll say he does an admirable job leading them to 8-8.

New England Patriots:
2010 season: 14-2
My 2010 prediction was: 12-4

8th in total offense; 11th passing offense; 9th rushing offense
25th in total defense; 30th in passing defense; 11th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Their defense was the worst in the NFL on third-downs, allowing opponents to convert 47.1% of the time.

Key Additions: WR Chad Ochocinco, DT Albert Haynesworth, DE Shaun Ellis, DE Andre Carter, 1st round pick OT Nate Solder, 2nd round pick CB Ras I-Dowling, 3rd round picks RB Shane Vereen and RB Stevan Ridley, 3rd round pick QB Ryan Mallet

Key Loses: G Stephen Neal, DE Ty Warren, OLB Tully Banta-Cain,

Main question: What will Brady do as an encore for one of the greatest seasons in NFL history?

Watching Tom Brady blossom in the wake of the Randy Moss trade, as he rejuvenated Deion Branch and turned two rookie tight ends into stars, was simply amazing. It was like the 2004 Brady, dominating defenses with a dink-and-dump offense run to perfection, only this version of Brady is smarter, tougher, and meaner. He was simply the best player in the NFL last season, and no one was close.

But then, a strange thing happened. He got ousted from the playoffs by the insufferably annoying Jets, the same team he thrashed 45-3 in December. For the second straight year, the Pats dominated the regular season and then lost their first playoff game. It’s really perplexing.

So what should we expect this year from Brady and the rag-tags? More flawless preformances with sweaty long hair? More unsung heroes like Danny Woodhead and Ben-Jarvus-Green-Feet-Studio or whatever his name is. More 30/43 masterpieces against elite defenses? More streaks of 300+ attempts without an interception? I really have no idea, but I can’t wait to find out.

Acquiring Chad Ochocinco was a curious move for the typically straight-laced Patriots, but then again, that Randy Moss thing worked out pretty well. When in doubt, don’t doubt Bill Belichick. Solder and the two rookie running backs give the offense more fun wrinkles. Word is that Vereen looks amazing in camp.

Then there’s the defense that somehow ranked 30th against the pass despite leading the league in INTs. I have a pretty simple solution: teams were losing, so they were throwing. Thus, lots of passing yards. In terms of YPA, New England ranked 14th; for opposing QB rating, 13th; total sacks, 14th. So while they gave up a ton of yards through the air in desperate comeback attempts, they were way better than the 30th best secondary. Statistics sometimes lie.

Leading the defense is inside linebacker Jerod Mayo, who also led the NFL in tackles. The inside is manned by nosetackle Vince Wilfork, a deserving Pro Bowler, and Haynesworth, who was awesome 3 years ago but now seems to hate life. Maybe Belichick can reinvigorate his career, but if not, no big loss. Losing Ty Warren isn’t great, but not detrimental. Shaun Ellis (72 sacks in 11 years) and Andre Carter (11 sacks just two years ago) both have potential to fit into that DE spot and thrive.

The secondary has a rising star in CB Devin McCourty, a Pro Bowl rookie and runner-up for D-ROY. Pat Chung and Brandon Merriweather are above-average safeties, and Leigh Bodden is good enough for the CB#2 spot.

Overall, New England isn’t quite as stacked as the Packers from top to bottom, but it’s close, and they have the best player in the NFL. The defense has a few gaps, the O-line isn’t perfect, and the 3rd down defense obviously needs to improve. They’ve got an easy schedule for most of the season, with a few tough games peppered in, such as Philly, Pittsburgh and Indy. All they really need to do is sweep the Jets and they’ll easily win a first-round bye. I see them going 13-3, and while Brady isn’t going to repeat his 111 QB rating, I’m more than happy to have him as my fantasy quarterback in 4 leagues.

New Orleans Saints:
2010 season: 11-5
My 2010 prediction was: 8-8

6th in total offense; 3rd passing offense; 28th rushing offense
4th in total defense; 4th in passing defense; 16th in rushing defense

*Key stat – The Saints only played three above .500 teams last year, and Brees still managed to throw a career-high 22 picks. .

Key Additions: RB Darren Sproles, 1st round pick RB Mark Ingram, 1st round pick DE Cameron Jordan, C Olin Kreutz, DT Aubrayo Franklin, DT Shaun Rogers, CB Fabian Washington, DT Turk McBride

Key Loses: RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, DT Remi Ayodele, OLB Danny Clark, CB Randall Gay

Main question: Will Brees bounce back from his sub-par (by his standards) 2010 season?

There’s not much to dislike about the Saints offseason. They got rid of two non-productive headaches in Bush and Shockey, and replaced them with much better players in Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham. In fact, both Sproles and Graham are huge sleepers on my fantasy radar. Graham is being drafted in the 8-10 range of tight ends, and should be 4th behind Gates, Witten and Finley. I wouldn’t be shocked if he racks up 100 catches and 10 TDs.

As Andy Szymas astutely pointed out the other day, it seem like the Saints have 5 receivers more than any other team. The primary guy is Colston, but then there's Moore, Henderson, Meachem … none are great talents, none are fantasy studs, but all of them get the job done for Brees. With an elite offensive line anchored by super guards Evans and Nicks, plus newly-acquired center Olin Kreutz, Brees should have plenty of time to sit back in the pocket and make his perfect throws. There’s no excuse for him to toss another 22 picks. If the Saints’ offense struggles, he has to point the finger at himself.

But I don’t think it will. The defense is what concerns me. As you can see, New Orleans was great against the pass, but only average in run defense. To remedy that, they picked up a 320-pound run-stuffing specialist named Aubrayo Franklin, a six-year starter for the Niners and Ravens. For depth, they picked up numbskull Shaun Rogers.

New Orleans ranked 19th in sacks last year despite facing a really easy schedule, so they added Cameron Jordan to improve the pass rush. The linebackers aren’t exceptional, but MLB Jonathan Vilma should be better this year now that he’s recovered from a groin injury. The outside linebacker spots are scrubs, both corners are mediocre, but somehow they ranked 4th against the pass. I don’t think that’ll happen again this year.

I’m actually down on the entire NFC South this year, for one primary reason. Last year, they all enjoyed 4 games against the worst division in football. This year, the Saints and their divisional friends must instead face the NFC North, a much tougher task. The lucky ones this season are the members of the AFC North and NFC East, who each get four freebies against the worthless NFC West. (Actually, the Rams shouldn't considered a total pushover anymore. More on them later)

That’s why I have Atlanta down from 13-3 to 9-7, and that’s why I’m projecting a modest 10-6 for the Saints. It’s a brutal schedule when you factor in 4 do-or-die games against the Falcons and Bucs, plus the Packers, Colts, Texans…

I love Drew Brees, I think he’s somehow underrated despite winning the Super Bowl two years ago, and yet I think the schedule keeps New Orleans from winning more than 10 games. 10-6 and a strong playoff run.

New York Giants:
2010 season: 10-6
My 2010 prediction was: 9-7

5th in total offense; 10th passing offense; 6th rushing offense
7th in total defense; 9th in passing defense; 8th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Eli Manning stinks.

Key Additions: 1st round pick CB Prince Amukamara, OG Stacy Andrews, C David Baas, NT Gabe Watson, 2nd round pick DT Marvin Austin

Key Loses: WR Steve Smith, C Shaun O’Hara, DT Barry Coefield, TE Kevin Boss, FB Madison Hedgecock, OG Rich Seubert

Main question: With the Dream Team Eagles and the recuperated Cowboys in their division, what does New York have to do to contend for a playoff push?

It’s not impossible, though it’s a long shot. The offseason was tough for the Giants, as they lost two starting O-lineman, a solid DT, 3 good starters on offense (FB, WR, TE), and then watched their 1st round pick break his foot, only to have his replacement tear his ACL. All the while, Philly was loading up on Pro Bowlers and becoming unbeatable.

So how can the Giants stay competitive and fight for a wildcard? Well for starters, they need to win their first 2 games.

Look at the Giants schedule: the first 7 games are against 6 non-playoff teams (I’m not counting Seattle). Then the next 9 are against 5 playoff teams, including the Pats and Pack, plus 2 extras against Dallas. Of their final 9 games, only 1 is against an inferior opponent.

So in order to have a chance, the Giants need to start out sprinting. If they lose week 1 to Washington, the season is over. They need to beat Arizona week 4, Buffalo week 6, and Miami week 8. They can’t mess around with those cupcakes, because the stretch from weeks 9 to 13 features 4 of the 5 best teams in the league. Ouch.

It’s possible, I suppose, for the Giants to start out 6-1 and then finish 10-6 or 9-7. But the beginning of the season is going to be toughest on teams with a lot of discontinuity, as it always is, but especially due to the lockout. The Giants are slammed by discontinuity.

The left tackle position will be occupied by totally unproven William Beatty, who will almost certainly struggle. Baas will replace O’Hara at center (downgrade) and David Diehl moves over to LG. The right side of the line (Snee and McKenzie) is awesome, so defenses will shift over accordingly.

Losing tight end Kevin Boss doesn’t hurt the aerial game, but it hurts the blocking a lot. So does losing the fullback. And Steve Smith, one of the NFL’s best route-runners, is also gone (to the Eagles, no less). The only good news was re-signing Ahmad Bradshaw to a 4-year, $18 million deal. But now that he’s been paid, what’s to keep him from ‘getting hurt?’

Eli Manning was abysmal last year, throwing more INTs than Rodgers, Brady and Vick combined. He was intercepted once every 21 passes, and had multiple picks in 8 games. His yards and TDs look respectable because he threw so many dang passes, but losing five starters on offense is going to hurt. I’ve been ragging on Eli since he was drafted and even as he won a Super Bowl. I’ll say the same thing I’ve always said: if his last name was Jones, or Karzinski, there’s no dang way he’d still be a starting QB.

But there is a reason that the Giants won the 2008 Super Bowl, and that was the defensive line. This year, it might be better than it was then, despite losing a starting DT in Coefield. That’s because Jason Pierre-Paul is ready to come into his own as an elite pass-rusher, and across from Justin Tuck that will be lethal. Of course, they’ve still got holdout Osi Umenyiora, who will end up playing this year, like Vincent Jackson did last year for the Chargers, trying to earn either a contract or a trade. With those three DEs (Tuck moves inside on passing downs), offensive lines are going to be tormented.

But just like Eli’s brother’s team shows us, having great DEs without a good secondary doesn’t work. The Giants at least tried to assemble a good secondary, unlike Indianapolis, but 2 starting corners have got injured this summer. Corey Webster still occupies the CB#1 spot, but now the #2 spot belongs to Aaron Ross, a beatable scrub. The safeties are both better in run support than coverage, and the linebackers are good but not amazing. Overall, it’s a very solid defense, but they’ll struggle with continuity at the DT and CB positions.

So despite having a dopey quarterback and a patch-work offense, I think the Giants will score plenty of points and rack up plenty of sacks, and predictably win most of their games during the first 7 weeks. I would guess 5-2. But then, just when people are starting to say “Maybe Eli was right when he compared himself to Tom Brady!”, the Giants will go on a 1-5 stretch, Tom Coughlin will be fired, Eli will be booed, and the Giants will finish the season 7-9 with their heads hung in shame.

New York Jets:
2010 season: 11-5
My 2010 prediction was: 9-7

11th in total offense; 22nd passing offense; 4th rushing offense
3rd in total defense; 6th in passing defense; 3rd in rushing defense

*Key stat – The Jets allowed just 8 passing TDs in 2009; last year they surrendered 24.

Key Additions: WRs Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason, DE Aaron Maybin, 1st round pick DT Muhammad Wilkerson, 2nd round pick NT Kendrick Ellis

Key Loses: WRs Braylon Edwards and Jericho Cotchery, OT Damien Woody, DE Shaun Ellis, NT Kris Jenkins, DE Vernon Gholston, OLB Jason Taylor, WR Brad Smith,

Main question: Can Sanchez increase his completion percentage to a respectable number and by doing so, give the Jets another chance at the playoffs?

In two years, Mark Sanchez has been to two AFC Championship games. He’s 4-2 in the playoffs, with all 6 games on the road. He also has two regular seasons in which he’s compiled completion percentages of 53.8% and 54.8%, good enough to rank 29th both years. That’s okay as a rookie, but this year he’s got to improve.

Sanchez did improve his TD/INT ratio from 12/20 to 17/13, and was sacked once per 18 attempts, an improvement from his rookie season when he was taken down once per 14. A chance of scenery might help Sanchize; while Burress and Mason aren’t athletic improvements over Edwards and Cotchery, they are approximately equal and give a spark of new energy. Dustin Keller is a good pass-catching TE, but a crap blocker.

The O-line loses RT Damien Woody, the former Patriot and Lion, who retired at age 33. His replacement, Wayne Hunter, committed 8 penalties last year in just 6 games. Oops. But the rest of the line, anchored by All Pro center Nick Mangold and really good LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, is all set. The guards are real good too. That’s why the Jets are perennially a top-5 running team, regardless of who the RB is.

This year it looks like Shonn Greene will carry a much heavier load, while washed-up LT continues to be a superstar in his own mind. Rex Ryan recently said something along the lines of “We plan on giving defenses a heavy dose of Shonn Greene, and cramming it down their throats!” Or something like that. I’m sure with his 4.1 YPC and 2 TDs last year, defenses are terrified.

It’s a very limited offense, highlighted by a true stud WR in Holmes, but crippled by an inaccurate quarterback and defense-minded coach. Once again, they’ll rank top 5 in rushing, bottom 10 in passing. Unless Sanchez really has a turnaround.

So just how good can the defense be? Can they carry them to a third-straight playoff appearance? Unfortunately, I think they can.

Assuming New England plays to their potential and wins 13+ games, the Jets are going to be battling for a wildcard spot, and that typically requires 10 wins. Darrelle Revis probably counts as 4 wins single-handedly. He will take an opposing stud WR (such as Calvin Johnson last year) and reduce him to one catch for 13 yards. It’s sick.

The middle linebackers (Harris and Scott) are also great, and Cromartie is just fine as a CB#2. He plays inconsistently, but is capable of big plays. When the Jets were close to signing Asomugha, it was terrifying for everybody. I’m just so glad it didn’t happen.

If the defense has a weakness, it’s the pass rush, which generated only 40 sacks last year (9th most), an oddly low figure for a Rex Ryan blitz-crazy defense. They blitzed as much as anybody, but just didn’t have the right athletes.

OLB Calvin Pace was injured sporadically all of 2010, and OLB Bryan Thomas just wasn’t very good. They brought in Aaron Maybin (megabust from the Bills) and rookie Muhammad Wilkerson (more of a run-stuffer) to bolster the front 7, but they’ll still struggle at rushing the passer. In fact, they’ll probably drop below 40 sacks, unless somehow emerges from the woodwork.

But a defense that can blanket receivers and stuff the run is good enough, and because of that they’ll force plenty of 3rd and longs which will turn into blitzes and some sacks. It’s probably a slightly overrated defense overall, but having Revis makes them always formidable.

The schedule is average, with 6 tough games, 8 easy ones, and 2 in-between. It’s a big year for Sanchez to prove himself, as he faces some pretty scary defenses. And while I don’t have faith in Rex Ryan’s annual championship guarantee, I do think this team sneaks into the playoffs again, going 10-6.

Oakland Raiders:
2010 season: 8-8
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

10th in total offense; 23rd passing offense; 2nd rushing offense
11th in total defense; 2nd in passing defense; 29th in rushing defense

*Key stat – CB Nnamdi Asomugha has allowed just 41 completions in the last 4 years. That’s an average of 0.68 completions per game over 60 games. Now, he’s on the Eagles, if you haven’t heard.

Key Additions: Head Coach Hue Jackson, OC Al Saunders, DC Chuck Bresnahan, QB Trent Edwards, TE Kevin Boss, 2nd round pick C Stefen Wisniewski, OT Stephen Heyer, and of course, Supplemental Draft Choice QB Terrelle Pryor

Key Loses: CB Nnamdi Asomugha, TE Zach Miller, coach Tom Cable, both coordinators, QB Bruce Gradkowski, G Robert Gallery, OLB Thomas Howard

Main question: WTF??????

Losing Nnamdi was understandable. A player that great and that smart isn’t going to spend his entire career with a dysfunctional team. Maybe the Raiders could have done more to try to keep him, but they didn’t have much of a chance. The real stumper is why the Raiders fired coach Tom Cable and both coordinators after the team went 8-8, their best record since 2002 when they lost the Super Bowl. Understandably, the only teams they beat were AFC West and NFC West foes, and maybe they could have won 9 or 10 games with that schedule, but really, did Tom Cable deserve to be fired?

Losing both coordinators is a double-whammy because of the lockout. Now Al Saunders and Chuck Bresnahan have basically two months to implement their new systems, so expect plenty of confusion and ‘transitioning’ and terrible football. Throw in the fact that Oakland lost its best receiver (TE Zach Miller) and retained its less-than-mediocre quarterback (Jason Campbell) without acquiring any new offensive starters other than a rookie 2nd round center, and the fact that Oakland was the only team in the NFL that didn’t have a 1st round pick in 2011 … and you’ve got arguably the worst offseason any team has had in the last decade, other than the Cavs in 2010.

The offense has only one exciting player, and that’s injury-prone RB Darren McFadden. The offensive line is atrocious – probably the league’s worst – and the only viable receiver is converted-kick-returner Jacoby Ford, who is lightning fast but may or may not know how to play receiver. The QB position is just sad, as the Raiders made no efforts to improve over Jason Campbell.

Defensively, the Raiders will be completely lost without Nnamdi, and that’s an understatement. The secondary now consists of Stanford Routt, Chris Johnson, Chimdi Chekwa, Tyvon Branch, and Michael Huff. Of those, only Huff is a pro-caliber player, and he just got paid big money, so the motivation is gone. Now add to their troubles that they all need to pick up an incredible amount of slack, as the just lost the league’s best shutdown corner.

Fortunately the linebackers in Oakland are very solid. At least something isn’t a complete dumpster fire. Rolando McClain is going to be a very good pro (I pegged him for D-ROY last year, to my everlasting shame), and Kamerion Wimbley had 9 sacks from the OLB position. Oakland actually ranked 3rd in total sacks, behind only the two teams that played in the Super Bowl. But you’ve got to imagine at least 10 of those 47 sacks had something to do with Asomugha’s coverage. The entire defense is going to take a major step backwards.

The D-line was worthless against the run last year, and amazingly didn’t pick up a single player to help in that area. In fact, all the defense did was lose its best player and its coordinator, and nothing else whatsoever. Oakland has ranked 2nd, 7th, 10th, 8th, and 1st in passing defense the last five years with Nnamdi. Without him, the best case scenario is anything but 32nd.

Remember, the Cavs lost 26 straight games, an NBA record, in their first year without LeBron James.

I’m picking Oakland to go 3-13, even though their talent suggests 0-16. With two games against Denver, plus Buffalo, Miami and a home game against the Bears, they should be able to eek a few wins. I’m also planning to pick up receivers in fantasy football all season long who have matchups against the Raiders. Week one, I’ll be rolling with Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas, and I doubt I’ll be disappointed.

Philadelphia Eagles:
2010 season: 11-5
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

2nd in total offense; 9th passing offense; 5th rushing offense
12th in total defense; 15th in passing defense; 15th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Michael Vick attempted fewer passes last year than Shaun Hill.

Key Additions: CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, RT Ryan Harris, WR Steve Smith, DE Jason Babin, DT Cullen Jenkins, QB Vince Young, RB Ronnie Brown, OG Evan Mathis, DT Anthony Hargrove, 1st round pick OG Danny Watkins, 2nd round pick S Jaiquawn Jarrett, 4th round pick MLB Casey Matthews

Key Loses: D-Coordinator Sean McDermott, QB Kevin Kolb, FB Leonard Weaver, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB Ernie Sims, ILB Stewart Bradley, S Quintin Mikell, K David Akers

Main question: Will the ‘Dream Team’ play with a Miami-Heat-esque aura of entitlement?

While everyone else was hyperventilating about Michael Vick and penciling the Eagles into the 2012 Super Bowl, I wasn’t so sure they were even a playoff team. I just don’t trust a human being who tortures dogs for fun. I just think there’s gotta be something wrong with him, mentally, emotionally, and sooner or later that’s going to manifest itself on the field. It’s the same sort of deal with Stafford, minus the dog-killing. I know he’s got a great arm, and he says all the right things, but I just get the feeling from him that football is not his life. To be a Rodgers or Brady, football has to be your life. I think Stafford would rather party than study gamefilm. That’s okay, that’s his preference. Not everyone can be Peyton Manning for a reason. I see guys like Bradford and Ryan, and I imagine them studying gamefilm all winter long, lighting weights and drinking protein shakes. I see Stafford, with the backwards hat and carefree smile, and I imagine him on a party boat, a little bit drunk, dancing with girls in bikinis, listening to country music. Great, enjoy your life, I don’t care. But I don’t think that’s the path to NFL greatness.

Anyway. Back to Vick. The dude is obviously a freak athlete, the best dual-threat QB ever, and better than anybody in the NFL at extending plays with his feet. Last year he was exceptional, no doubt. Can he stay healthy? Can he remain accurate? Can he play turnover-free again? Those are the three key questions, and it’ll be very surprising if the answer is ‘yes’ to all three. But if it is, congratulations Eagles, you are going to dominate.

Vick’s primary weakness, as I mentioned, is mental. Not only that desire to win no matter what it takes, but the cerebral aspect of the game. Being able to read blitzes and coverages. Last year we saw him get razzed near the end of the season by Minnesota and Green Bay, two defenses that brought a lot of blitzes. Coordinators are scared of his feet, but understand that the best way to defend him is to bring pressure and force him to throw. How he responds to that will be one of the most interesting storylines of 2011.

Of course, the Eagles are no longer a team that really needs Michael Vick in order to make the playoffs. They could probably go 10-6 with Drew Stanton. Not only do they have elite talent at RB, WR, and TE, but they have exceptional depth at all 3 positions. The offensive line is improved, with Watkins and Harris both new starters on the right side, and Mathis brought in for depth. Some people hated the draft choice of 27-year old Danny Watkins, the oldest rookie ever, in the 1st round. I loved it. The dude can play; he’s NFL-ready now, and the Eagles are ready to win now. It made sense. If he gives you 10 good years and then retires, that’s better than a 20-year old kid who gives you 3 crappy years and then goes to Seattle’s practice squad.

On a Madden Scale, I’d say the Eagles have 90+ ratings at every position on offense, including Steve Smith (a supreme possession guy) as their #3 receiver, and an overall offense that probably ranks a 95. Vick might stink, or he might get hurt, or maybe both. Vince Young is the new backup, and he would likely stink too. If third-stringer Mike Kafka was forced to play 6 games, I still would like the Eagles offense a lot. And that’s saying something.

But the defense, which actually managed to rank 12th overall last year, is downright frightening. To put it in Madden terms again, you’ve got a 99 corner, a 95 corner, and three defensive linemen who are all mid 90s. It’s freaking treacherous.

If there’s a weakness, it’s the linebackers. OLB Jamar Chaney is a returning starter from last year, but the top two LBs in terms of tackling (Sims and Bradley) are gone. Playing MLB will probably be Clay Matthew’s little brother, Casey Matthews, a 4th round rookie, and next to him is Moise Fokou, who is not exciting.

But the linebackers don’t matter too much with Trent Cole, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin up front. That trio should combine for at least 25 sacks, as they amassed 29.5 last year on three separate teams. Like the Lions, Philly will be able to generate a pass-rush using only its 4 D-linemen, thus the linebackers will be free to roam in coverage and run support.

Having Nnamdi Asomugha at corner is a luxury no other team has except the Jets. He’ll eliminate #1 receivers all season long; in fact, as the ‘key stat’ for Oakland alluded to, quarterbacks don’t even throw in his direction anymore. That stopped about 4 years ago, when they realized he wasn’t allowing completions. Having Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel at the other cornerback spots is just an embarrassment of riches. Philly is listening to trade offers for Samuel, but wouldn’t mind bringing a Pro Bowler off the bench in nickel formations. DRC is going to see a ton of passes thrown his way with Asomugha on the other side, and is a safe bet to lead the NFL in interceptions.

To make things even more magical, Philly faces the NFC West this year, and has bonus games against the fellow-division winners, Chicago and Atlanta. Fortunately for them, the best teams in those divisions are actually Green Bay and New Orleans. So somehow, they play only one top-5 team all year, and that’s New England at home, week 12.

I don’t think it’s fair that Philly is being put in the same sentence as the Miami Heat. I know it makes sense on paper, but none of their players took the easy way out like LeBron. Nnamdi made a smart choice, and I think it’ll pay off. They’re going to give the Packers a run for their money when it comes to homefield in the playoffs. I’ll say 14-2, just like the Pack.

Pittsburgh Steelers:
2010 season: 12-4
My 2010 prediction was: 9-7

14th in total offense; 14th passing offense; 11th rushing offense
2nd in total defense; 12th in passing defense; 1st in rushing defense

*Key stat – They didn’t allow a single run of 25 yards all season.

Key Additions: 1st round pick DE Cameron Heyward, 2nd round pick OT Marcus Gilbert

Key Loses: OT Max Starks, OT Flozell Adams, TE Matt Spaeth

Main question: Can they avoid the Super Bowl Loser curse?

As you know, there is no love lost between me and the Pittsburgh Steelers. I pretty much hate everything that is the color yellow, including the sun and daffodils. I cheer against them in secret, hoping my wife won’t notice, although my cover is pretty much blown by now. It’s nothing personal, I just detest every single little thing about them.

Because of that, I’ve been able to take off the rose-colored glasses and see them for what they really are: a dominant defense. Every drop of credit that Ben Roethlisberger gets for the two Super Bowls is too much. The dude is a liability, inaccurate, stupid, and implausibly lucky. Although, it’s not completely his fault. The O-line is even worse.

The only reason Roethlisberger hasn’t been sacked 300 times in the last 3 years is because he’s 50 pounds heavier and 6 inches bigger than any other quarterback in the league. It’s like little kids trying to sack their dad in the backyard. If you get 4 hanging on, maybe you can bring him down slowly, but he’ll still release the ball. It’s absurd. I’m surprised more teams haven’t caught on and signed guys like Dwight Howard to play quarterback.

The line is under a little bit of transition this year, with Starks being cut and underwhelming Jonathan Scott taking his place at LT. The center and RT positions are manned adequately by Pouncey and Willie Colon, although Colon tore his Achilles last year and might not be 100%. The guards are awful, both near the league-lead in sacks allowed and penalties, and both struggling with injuries. They really should have taken an offensive lineman in the first round of the draft, but chose to keep stockpiling on OLBs.

The #1 receiver in Pittsburgh is speedster Mike Wallace, not Dancer Hines Ward, who is 35 but plays like he’s 75. Emmanuel Sanders is the deep-threat to watch, and Heath Miller is solid all-around, both in the blocking game and as a red-zone receiver. I like Mike Wallace a little bit in fantasy leagues, but hate him in PPR formats. Last year he only caught 60 balls, which is terrible for a #1 receiver. But his 21 YPR was tops in the AFC, and he had 5 TDs of at least 50 yards. He’s the lesser-known version of DeSean Jackson.

Rashard Mendenhall had a terrible offseason when it comes to reputation. During the 2010 season, if you asked 100 football fans what they thought of him, 99 would have said “Pretty good Steelers running back.” Now, if you asked the same group, at least 95 people would say “Freaking psycho terrorist-loving motherf&%$.” Or something like that. Using Twitter to proclaim your love for Osama bin Laden isn’t the smartest way to spend an offseason. Neither is raping drunk 18-year olds, assaulting a convenience store worker, getting a DUI at 4am, or telling a magazine that you would not piss on the NFL commissioner if he were burning alive.

Great summer Steelers. You guys are so classy.

I could ramble on and on about the defense, but you guys know this drill by now. Polamalu is an A++ safety who can defend the pass and run simultaneously, and all 4 linebackers are Pro Bowl caliber, while all 3 D-lineman are considerably above-average. The corners stink, they always do, but it doesn’t matter unless Troy gets hurt. At least they’ve got continuity this year, with the same starting CBs as last year. Ryan Clark’s not a bad free safety. This is the best defense in football by a mile, and although Harrison is 33 and Polamalu’s 30, they’ve got at least one more dominant year in them.

The main thing working against them is the hangover of losing a Super Bowl. 9 of the last 13 Super Bowl losers did not make the playoffs the following year, and 7 of them had losing records. Having a very good Baltimore team in the AFC North means Pittsburgh needs to buckle down and win at least 12 to secure a playoff spot. With the freaking NFC West on the schedule, that shouldn’t be hard.

Although 3 of their first 4 games are brutal, Pittsburgh ends the season with 7 straight games against duds. They’re usually good for one inexplicable loss to an inferior team, so I’ll say they go 11-5.

San Diego Chargers:
2010 season: 9-7
My 2010 prediction was: 11-5

1st in total offense; 2nd passing offense; 15th rushing offense
1st in total defense; 1st in passing defense; 4th in rushing defense

*Key stat – If you’re trying to figure out how they ranked 1st in passing defense, it might be related to the fact that they only faced 2 good quarterbacks last season. Against those good QBs, they gave up an average of 222 passing yards per game, which would have ranked them 19th.

Key Additions: SS Bob Sanders, ILB Takeo Spikes, WR Laurent Robinson, 1st round pick DE Corey Liuget, defensive coordinator Greg Manusky

Key Loses: D-coordinator Ron Rivera, RB Darren Sproles, ILB Kevin Burnett, ILB Brandon Siler, WRs Legedu Naanee and Craig Davis

Main question: Is this the year of Phillip Rivers?

Last year, I dumbly predicted that San Diego would race out to a 6-0 record against an easy schedule, and then collapse to 11-5. Instead, they started 2-5, then won 7 of their next 9 to fall just short of a playoff birth. Of those 5 early losses, at least three of them could fairly be blamed on special teams. The Chargers had 4 punts blocked and gave up 4 return TDs, causing many folks to say they had the worst special teams in NFL history. Their kick coverage team essentially cost Phillip Rivers a playoff birth.

Rivers certainly earned his spot in the postseason, with a blistering 101.8 QB rating last season, featuring the league’s best YPA, something he’s done in three straight seasons. The fact is, with all the talk about Cutler and Stafford and Flacco and their “big arms,” nobody throws a better deep ball than Phillip Rivers. Nobody is even close.

With Vincent Jackson holding out for 10 weeks and Gates being hurt for 6 games (plus another 5 games that he played injured), Rivers put up the second best passing numbers in the league with Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee as his primary targets, not to mention the immortal Seyi Ajirotutu. This year, Rivers gets his top two targets fully healthy, and also the Pro Bowl left tackle who missed 6 games holding out in 2010, AND the promising young running back who missed most of last season too.

No offense was more ravaged with injuries and holdouts than the Chargers, and yet Rivers led them to the #2 passing offense in football. Is there any reason to think Rivers WON’T win the MVP in 2011?

A lot of folks, particularly in fantasy circles, hate Ryan Matthews. The Fresno State product did nothing in his rookie season, other than hurt his ankle and get outshined by Mike Tolbert. But this dude is an all-around stud with a multi-faceted game, and it’s too soon to give up on him. He doesn’t have CJ-type speed and he won’t catch more than 30 passes, but he can do the job on 1st and 2nd down, and that’s all you need on a pass-first team. He’ll have a good enough season to keep defenses honest.

I’m really high on both V-Jack and Gates this year, expecting 1,000 yards and 10 TDs from both. Rivers was picked to win the MVP by 3 of the 12 leading experts at ESPN, including the all-knowing Adam Schefter, and that’s good enough for me. Mike Greenberg also picked Rivers, which is probably a bad omen. But I was leaning towards picking him too, even before I saw Schefty’s prediction. So it’s official: Rivers is my MVP pick for 2011.

Looking at the defense, it’s insane that they ranked #1 overall last year, ahead of Pittsburgh and Green Bay. But everyone pretty much knows it’s insane, so much so that the Chargers defense has somehow become underrated, despite giving up a league-low 271 yards of offense per game.

As I alluded to earlier, they were able to do that thanks to games against dreadful quarterbacks. They played Jason Campbell twice, Matt Cassel twice, Orton, Tebow, Garrard, Palmer, Hasselbeck, Bradford, Max Hall, Alex Smith, and Vince Young. In other words, they got to play the NFC West and their own sad division. So it would be expected that this year they’d face a long list of elite signal-callers. But not so.

They get Sanchez, Cutler, Henne, Fitzpatrick, McNabb, Garrard, and six games against the crappy QBs in their own division. In fact, Matt Stafford might be the fourth best quarterback they face all season. Talk about incredible luck.

With four new starters and a new coordinator, it’s plausible that the defense could completely stink this year, but I doubt it. They lost ILBs Kevin Burnett and Brandon Siler, but the biggest loss was coordinator Ron Rivera, who is now coaching Carolina. They brought in another 3-4 coordinator, Greg Manusky, who brought linebacker Takeo Spikes along with him from San Francisco. Spikes is 34, but still has a good year or two left in him.

The cornerbacks, Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer, played exceptionally well last year against 13 crappy quarterbacks. Safety Eric Weddle was also great, but with a new $50 million contract he might not be quite as good this year. Often-injured safety Bob Sanders joins the secondary for five or six plays until his inevitable injury.

The D-line was not flashy but extremely stout against the run last year, despite facing the league’s #1 and #2 rushing offenses two times each. Nosetackle Antonio Garay had a great 2010 season under the radar, and adding Corey Liuget to play DE is an improvement over Jacques Cesarie. There’s no way San Diego’s defense ranks #1 overall again, but with the easy schedule, they might be top 5.

It seems a little cliché and obvious, but I’m really high on the Chargers this year. They remind me of the 2009 Saints – elite quarterback who hasn’t had his big playoff run yet. Rivers may actually be better than Brees and Rodgers, but until he gets a ring nobody will acknowledge him as such. I’m thinking this is his year. Chargers go 14-2.

San Francisco 49ers:
2010 season: 6-10
My 2010 prediction was: 9-7

24th in total offense; 18th passing offense; 19th rushing offense
13th in total defense; 24th in passing defense; 6th in rushing defense

*Key stat – San Fran went 4-2 against their own division, and 2-0 against the AFC West’s crappy teams. Against actual teams, they went 0-8.

Key Additions: Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, D-Coordinator Vin Fangio, CB Carlos Rogers, WR Braylon Edwards, C Jonathan Goodwin, FS Madieu Williams, SS Donte Whitner, K David Akers, 1st round pick DE Aldon Smith, 2nd round pick QB Colin Kaepernick

Key Loses: Coach Mike Singletary, D-coordinator Greg Manusky, ILB Takeo Spikes, C Eric Heitmann, C David Baas, NT Aubrayo Franklin, OLB Manny Lawson, CB Nate Clements, QBs Troy Smith and David Carr, K Joe Nedney

Key Non-Addition-Non-Loss: QB Alex Smith, who is still with the Niners six years after being picked #1 overall. In his epic career, he’s made 54 starts, throwing 51 TDs and 53 picks for a 72.1 rating. Amazingly, last season was the best season of his career, and he was still benched for Troy Smith on three different occasions.

Main question: How soon does Kaepernick get to play?

Last year, San Fran duped everyone into believing they were real. I picked them to win the division, Mike Greenberg put them in the Super Bowl, and they began the year 0-5. It was deceiving because their assembly of skill position players (Gore, Crabtree, Davis) was impressive on paper, but they lacked a competent quarterback to run the offense. And the defense always seems better than it really is because of Patrick Willis, the best linebacker in football. But his supporting cast stinks on an annual basis, and it’ll be even worse this year.

Bringing in Harbaugh was the best thing San Fran could have done, simply because he might be able to squeeze some production from Alex Smith, at least until Kaepernick is ready to play. Harbaugh is an unquestioned offensive genius, but he’s got the rare task of coaching an inferior quarterback despite making the jump from the NCAA to the NFL.

With Frank Gore’s constant injuries and Michael Crabtree’s assholeishness, it wouldn’t shock me if San Fran struggles offensively and Kaepernick, who may be the second-fastest QB in the NFL behind Vick, gets to play earlier than expected. He’s got bust-potential written all over him, as his primary weaknesses are accuracy and ability to understand defenses. He played inferior competition in college, and consequently put up insane numbers both passing and rushing. He’s got a little bit of Tebow in him, a little bit of Vince Young, but he’s also got a cannon arm. A very unique prospect, definitely raw, but will be fun to watch when he gets his chance.

The best thing going for San Fran’s offense is continuity on the offensive line. Last year they battled with injuries and started 2 rookies. This year, 4 starters return, LT Joe Staley is healthy, and the starting center Baas was replaced by an equal player in Goodwin. If it wasn’t for the quarterback position, this could be a great offense.

Defensively, you know all about Patrick Willis, the tackling machine who single-handedly makes the Niners a top-5 defense against the run. He’s basically the LB equivalent to what Nnamdi does as a CB. But just like Nnamdi when he was on Oakland, Willis has a barebones supporting cast. Making matters much worse, 3 of his 4 best defensive teammates were lost in free agency.

San Fran couldn’t afford to retain CB Nate Clements, and lost him to the Bengals. Run-stuffing nosetackle Aubrayo Franklin was also a cap casualty, going to New Orleans. Neither of those players were adequately replaced, although CB Carlos Rogers was a decent attempt. The D-line was left in shambles, with last year’s backup, Isaac Sopoaga, the only option at nosetackle. Defensive end Justin Smith is the second best player on this defense, behind Willis of course. He’s good for 7 or 8 sacks a year, nothing special.

The OLBs lost a quality starter in Manny Lawson and replaced him with rookie Aldon Smith, who needs to adjust from the 4-3 he played in college. He’ll probably play only situational passing downs for the first several weeks of the season, leaving Ahmad Brooks and Parys Haralson as the starting OLBs. Bleak.

Willis also lost fellow ILB Takeo Spikes, and Navorro Bowman will occupy that starting position. Bowman was a third-round pick from Penn State two years ago and might be decent, but no where near as good as Spikes.

Any time a defense loses 3 of its 5 best players and their coordinator, they are in trouble. It doesn’t matter if they have Patrick Willis.

Fortunately, San Fran does get to play 6 games against their own division again. This might be a curse in disguise, because they’ll probably win too many games to have a chance at a top 5 pick. Although, if Kaepernick is the real deal, that will be okay. Other than 4 tough games against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philly and Dallas, the 49ers have a favorable schedule. I see them overachieving a little in Harbaugh’s first season, and going 7-9; Alex Smith goes 4-5 as a starter and Kaepernick goes 3-4, with his first start coming week 11, at home, against Arizona.

Seattle Seahawks:
2010 Season: 7-9
My 2010 prediction was: 7-9

28th in total offense; 19th passing offense; 31st rushing offense
27th in total defense; 27th in passing defense; 21st in rushing defense

*Key stat – It’s obvious that Seattle was the worst playoff team in NFL history; they were horrendous in every area and only won 7 games because of 4 wins against their terrible division. But the most telling stat: they were outscored by 97 points last year, making them the fifth-worst team in the NFL by point differential.

Key Additions: QB Tavaris Jackson, WR Sidney Rice, TE Zach Miller, G Robert Gallery, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, DT Alan Branch, 1st round pick OT OT James Carpenter, 3rd round pick OG John Moffitt, O-Coordinator Darrell Bevell, Offensive Line Coach Tom Cable

Key Loses: ILB Lofa Tatupa, QB Matt Hasselbeck, G Stacy Andrews, C Chris Spencer, OLB Will Herring, S Jordan Babineaux, O-Coordinator Jeremy Bates

Main question: Tavaris Jackson??? Really???

Seattle was horrendous last year, winning the dreadful NFC West by default, stumbling drunkenly into the playoffs, and then winning perhaps the luckiest and dumbest game in postseason history. The fact that they got a home game against New Orleans was an utter sham, but the Saints still should have won. It messed up the entire postseason, allowing the Bears a free pass to the NFC Championship, and a home game which could have let the undeserving Bears sneak into the Super Bowl. Thankfully, the Packers were in can’t-be-stopped mode.

Either way, Seattle has absolutely zero chance of being in the playoffs again this year, for several reasons.

Firstly, they made their team a million times worse during the summer, losing their best defender (Tatupa) and their starting QB (Hasselbeck). They brought in the calamitous Tavaris Jackson for no logical reason and made him the starting quarterback, and spent upwards of $80 million to give him a TE and WR to throw to. Great idea, except Tavaris sucks at throwing.

The offensive line is being ‘restructured,’ to put it nicely, with rookie starters at RT and RG, and a new LG who was horrible in Oakland. Their best O-lineman is LT Russell Okung, a 2nd-year player. Marshawn Lynch also stinks, as does Justin Forsett, so don't expect squat from the running game.

But perhaps the worst part of Seattle’s offseason wasn’t what they did as much as what the rest of the NFC West did instead. Arizona got a competent quarterback; San Fran got a competent coach; and St. Louis simply retained their stud-in-the-making quarterback. It’s safe to say the rest of the division improved, while Seattle got a heck of a lot worse.

Defensively, the ‘Hawks didn’t add any starting players, but lost a few. Tatupa is a major loss not only because they lost their best tackler, but also the veteran leader of the defense. He was cut simply for contractual reasons. He’s still a free agent, and will soon be forced to settle for less money than he hoped for.

Aaron Curry, taken 3rd overall in 2009, has been a disappointment so far, looking confused and being generally despised by Seattle’s faithful. The rest of the linebackers are respectable, as is the defensive line, but the secondary is horrible yet again, making no changes from last year. There’s no reason to think they’ll improve in any way defensively.

Last year, Seattle took advantage of their inept division and also beat hapless Carolina, despicably stealing a playoff berth from 10-6 Tampa and 10-6 New York. This year, their division is slightly improved (still the worst division by far, largely because of them), and they have a first-place schedule, meaning bonus games against Atlanta and Chicago, plus the AFC North and NFC East. They have a few games on the schedule that appear winnable, but remember, Tavaris Jackson is their starting quarterback. I’m calling for a 4-12 year.

Sidenote: USC’s quarterback Matt Barkley is considered a top-5 pick next year, probably the consolation prize for whoever doesn’t get Andrew Luck. Pete Carroll recruited and coached Barkley at USC. Party because I believe in conspiracy theories, but moreso because I believe in the scumminess of Pete Carroll, I honestly think Seattle is tanking this season to land Barkley. Either that, or they are managed by a bunch of complete retards.

St. Louis Rams:
2010 season: 7-9
My 2010 prediction was: 7-9

26th in total offense; 21st passing offense; 25th rushing offense
19th in total defense; 19th in passing defense; 17th in rushing defense

*Key stat – The Rams had 25 sacks in 2009, ranking 30th. Last year, in Steve Spagnuolo’s debut year as head coach, they improved to 43 sacks, ranking 7th.

Key Additions: OC Josh McDaniels, 1st round pick DE Robert Quinn, G Harvey Dahl, RB Cadillac Williams, WR Mike Sims-Walker, OLB Ben Leber, CB Al Harris, S Quintin Mikell, OLB Zach Diles, DT Justin Bannan

Key Loses: S O.J. Atogwe, WRs Mark Clayton and Laurent Robinson, O-Coordinator Pat Shurmur

Main question: Can they emerge from the burning rubble of the NFC West and become a legitimate pro football team?

Last year, the two worst coaches in the NFL were probably Wade Phillips and Josh McDaniels. This year, both are expected to be highly successful coordinators. This seems nutty, but I guess it makes sense. Look at Detroit’s former coaches: Mornhinweg and Marinelli are the two most worthless head coaches in the history of the world, and both transitioned into successful coordinators. Josh McDaniels always puts up ridiculous passing numbers no matter where he goes (granted, having Tom Brady helped), but expectations are high for Sam Bradford and the offense. I don’t trust McDaniels with all my heart … after all, he did draft Tim Tebow … but I do think Bradford will have a great season, and McDaniels will probably redeem himself.

I loved Spagnuolo as a D-Coordinator back when the Giants won the Super Bowl, and knew he would improve the Rams lethargic defense last year. But I didn’t expect him to bring them up from 29th to 19th without any improvements on the field. He got amazing production from DEs James Hall and Chris Long, and now has a super-talented DE in Robert Quinn to work with, along with huge upgrades at DT and safety. Justin Bannan is an elite run-stuffer, and joins another one in Fred Robbins. If Quinn lives up to his draft selection, the Rams could quickly have the best D-line in the NFC.

The back seven is led by James Laurinaitis, a budding star at MLB. The secondary is average, although Mikell is an upgrade at safety. The outside linebackers were adequate last year, and Leber and Diles are both slight upgrades. If the defense was a 70 out of 100 last year, it’s at least a 78 this year. They’ll rack up another 40+ sacks and torment quarterbacks while being stout against the run.

I have no idea which receivers will star, or even start, in the pass-heavy Rams offense. I sort of like Amendola in PPR leagues, and I suppose Sims-Walker will lead the team in yards. I’m not counting out Danario Alexendar either. I’ve always had an irrational love affair with the Rams, even when they went 6-42 from 2007 to 2009. This year, I think it’s finally warranted.

Oh, I forgot to mention, Harvey Dahl is an elite LG, maybe the best in the league, and he might have been the best under-the-radar acquisition of the summer. And the Rams still have that Steven Jackson guy, so they should be able to run the ball a little bit, if they want.

As much as I want to love the Rams, though, you can’t ignore the start of their treacherous schedule: 6 of the first 7 games are against Philly, Baltimore, NY Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, and New Orleans. That’s nasty. They’ll be extremely lucky to be 3-4 heading into week 8, and if they are, it’ll be good news, because the next 7 games are against crappy teams. Then they get Pittsburgh week 16, and finish the year at home against San Fran in what could be a division-deciding game.

But I have a feeling it’ll be over before that. I’ve got Arizona at 7-9, San Fran at 7-9, and Seattle at 4-12 … so St. Louis will win the division easily with a 10-6 record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Last year: 10-6
My 2010 prediction was: 4-12

19th in total offense; 17th in passing offense; 8th in rushing offense
17th in total defense; 7th in passing defense; 28th in rushing defense

*Key stat: Josh Freeman had the second best attempt/INT ratio in the league, behind only Tom Brady.

Key Addition: 1st round pick DE Adrian Clayborn, 2nd round pick DE DaQuan Bowers

Key Loses: ILB Barrett Rudd, RB Cadillac Williams

In the 2009 draft, Matt Stafford was taken first, and Josh Freeman was taken 17th overall. Stafford got a six-year deal worth $78 million, while Freeman got five years and $26 million. To date, it's not even a question which quarterback is better. If you asked all 32 GMs to start a franchise with either Stafford or Freeman as their franchise quarterback, 30 would take Tampa's QB, while the Lions would stubbornly stick with Stafford. Al Davis would probably abstain.

Stafford might have a slightly stronger arm, but Freeman is superior in every other way. While Stafford was partying, drinking, cruising the Carribbean in his yacht and maybe lifting weights a little on the side ... Freeman was organizing team practices, assemblying playbooks, working out with his receivers, and studying gamefilm. One guy cares about winning because it's his job, and the other cares about winning because it's his life.

Anyhow, I've loved Freeman unabashedly for the last 12 months or so, and watched him improve steadily through the 2010 season. Over the last 4 games, Freeman was at his best, throwing a dazzling completion percentage of 71.6 in that span. The Bucs only missed the playoffs because they share a division with the Saints and Falcons. Bad luck. They were also decimated by injuries defensively.

With Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Kellen Winslow and LeGarette Blount, Freeman has an elite arsenal of weapons at his disposal, all under the age of 28. The O-line is also young, and played pretty well last year, allowing only 30 sacks (10th fewest) and paving the way for a 4.6 YPC average, 6th best in the league. The offense retains all 11 starters this year and all their coaches, which will be huge in the lockout-shortened season.

The defense struggled at times last year, as their best player missed 14 games with a drug-related suspension. He'll rejoin the team for week 3. That's safety Tanard Jackson, by the way. Stud cornerback Aqib Talib also had plenty of trouble, nearly going to prison for assault, and missing 5 games with a hamstring injury. He'll be fine this year, at least until his trial in March, which might effectively end his career. At least Tampa gets him for this year.

Rookie DT Gerald McCoy wasn't as good as Ndamukong Suh, but he wasn't as bad as I suspected he might be. He's not the pass-rushing tsunami of pain that Suh is, but he can stuff the run just as well. Tampa's biggest weakness on defense was the pass rush, but they spent their first 2 picks on DEs who might both start immediately. DaQuan Bowers will be the steal of the draft if his knees hold up. That will definitely be a story to watch this year.

This big news this morning is that Peyton Manning will miss week 1, and reportedly the first 4-5 games of the season. Tampa gets Indy at home week 4, so they'll be crossing their fingers, hoping for an easy win. Their schedule is tough, but the two games against Carolina help, and they'll be competitive in the other 4 ultra-important division games. I really wish Detroit didn't play them week one.

Call me crazy, but I've got them winning the NFC South at 11-5.

Tennessee Titans:

With just two teams left, I'm going to kick it into warp speed.

The Titans lost their two best defenders (Tulloch and Babin) and have a new head coach, but they smarly added Hasselbeck to play while Locker gets ready. Rudd was a good move at MLB, Ayers was a good find in the 2nd round. The drama surrounding Chris Johnson's contract was obnoxious, but they did the right thing keeping their best player. Without him the offense would have been doomed. Even with him, they'll be iffy. The tackles are pretty good, but the interior of the line stinks. Kenny Britt is a good WR#1, but a headache at times. Hasselbeck is a shell of his former self. The defense is going to be one of the league's worst. The schedule is pretty kind. I'll say 5-11.

Washington Redskins:

A few months ago I predicted they would get the #1 pick in 2011, thanks to Shanahan's brainless decision to make Rex Grossman his starting quarterback. I'm sticking with that prediction, no matter how good Grossman looks in the preseason.

This entire team is a trainwreck. The RBs and WRs are terrible, the O-line is worse-than-average, and the quarterback carousel of Grossman and John Beck is just embarassing. The defense is even worse, as Shanny imposed the 3-4 scheme onto personnel who did not fit it. As a result, his two best D-linemen left town. But as usual, Daniel Snyder spent a ton of money this offseason, getting DT Barry Coefield and safety O.J. Atogwe to improve the defense. On paper, those are solid moves. But the defense isn't going to be much better than it was last year when it ranked 31st.

They've got the NFC West and Carolina/Miami/Buffalo on the docket, but I don't care. I'm still making them 2-14.

So there you have it, 32 predictions for 32 teams. Here is the recap.

Miami 2-14
Buffalo 8-8
New England 13-3
NY Jets 10-6

Baltimore 11-5
Cleveland 8-8
Cincinnati 5-11
Pittsburgh 11-5

Indy 9-7
Houston 12-4
Jacksonville 3-13
Tennessee 5-11

Denver 5-11
Kansas City 8-8
San Diego 14-2
Oakland 3-13

Philly 14-2
Dallas 9-7
NY Giants 7-9
Washington 2-14

Green Bay 14-2
Detroit 8-8
Chicago 5-11
Minnesota 8-8

Atlanta 9-7
New Orleans 10-6
Tampa 11-5
Carolina 2-14

San Fran 7-9
St. Louis 10-6
Seattle 4-12
Arizona 7-9

A few quick edits:
*Because Manning is expected to miss 4-5 games, I'm going to have to knock the Colts down to 7-9, and I'll balance that out by making Pittsburgh 12-4 and giving Carolina 3-13 instead of 2-14.

Playoff Picks:

AFC

BYE New England (13-3)
BYE San Diego (14-2)

Houston (12-4) over Baltimore (11-5)
Pittsburgh (12-4) over NY Jets (10-6)

San Diego over Pittsburgh
New England over Houston

San Diego over New England

NFC

BYE Green Bay (14-2)
BYE Philly (14-2)

New Orleans (10-6) over St. Louis (10-6)
Dallas (9-7) over Tampa (11-5)

New Orleans over Philly
Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl

New Orleans over San Diego , 35-27
Super Bowl MVP - Drew Brees, 24-33, 315 yards, 4 TDs

Season Awards:

MVP - Phillip Rivers, 35 TDs, 7 INTs, 4,900 yards, 14 wins
D-MVP - Mario Williams, 19 sacks, 8 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs
Offensive ROY - Mark Ingram, for lack of a better option; 1,100 yards and 7 TDs Defensive ROY - Tough call, but I'll go with Von Miller; 11 sacks, 95 tackles

Coach of the Year - Mike McCarthy, because the Packers go 14-2 and make it look easy

What other awards are there ...?

Comeback Player - Tony Romo
First Coach Fired - I'll say Jack Del Rio
Most Annoying Storyline: Peyton's neck

Top 5 picks in the 2012 Draft:

Washington (2-14) - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Miami (2-14) - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Jacksonville (3-13) - Quinton Couples, OLB, UNC
Oakland (3-13) - Matt Kalil, LT, USC
Carolina (3-13) - Ashlon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina

That's all I got for now. Going to start the week one picks, first game of the year in two days!!