Wildcard Picks (And results from preseason picks)

Week 17 recap:

13-3 straight up
9-7 against the spread
10-6 over/unders

Total Regular Season: 

167-87-1 straight up (65.7%)
133-113-1 against the spread (54.1%)
77-66-4 over/unders (53.8%)

Overall, a very solid season of picks. Much better than last year (61.5%/50.4%)  Nearly tied my ATS record from 2011 (54.3%).  With a successful string of playoff picks, I can get to 55%.  

In other news, Gym Shorts was fired on Black Monday, and the Lion Faithful rejoiced.  Still a lot to be determined though. Who will coordinate the offense?  Who will compose the secondary?  What receivers will be added to complement Calvin?   What will we do with the #10 pick?  And most importantly, who will be the head coach?  Assuming the Gruden/Cowher/Dungy group is not interested, I have to think Lovie Smith is at the top of Detroit's list.  He knows the NFC North, he is a 4-3 defense guy, and he went to a Superbowl with Rex Grossman.  That's my choice.   

But knowing the Lions, they'll try their chances with the 'hot coordinator' routine, once again. We have seen how that works out.  Marty, Marinelli, Schwartz.  None of them were real coaches.  Chances are, we'll hire Denver's O-coordinator or Seattle's D-coordinator or something obnoxiously cliche like that.  Ugh.  Is it Tigers season yet?  

*EDIT*  The damn Bucs just signed Lovie Smith.  The Lions are interviewing Jim Caldwell (who went 2-14 a couple years ago in one of the most pathetic coaching displays of all time).  I hate the Lions.  

Before we get to the Wildcard picks, a quick revisit to my preseason prop bets.

Team over/unders: 

Correct: 
Atlanta - under 10 wins (Bet $20 at -150 odds, won $13.33)
Cleveland - under 6 wins (Bet $45 at +145 odds, won $65.25) 
Detroit - under 8 wins *Shakes head slowly in disbelief* (Bet $25 at even odds, won $25) 
Jacksonville - under 5 wins (Bet $35 at -130 odds, won $26.92) 
New England - over 10.5 wins (Bet $45 at +120 odds, won $54) 
New Orleans - over 9 wins (Bet $20 at -150 odds, won $13.33) 
Oakland - under 5.5 wins (Bet $30 at -200 odds, won $15) 

Incorrect: 
Baltimore - over 8.5 wins (Bet $40, lost $40) 
Cincinnati - under 8.5 wins (Bet $35, lost $35) 
Green Bay - over 10.5 wins (Bet $40, lost $40) 

7 out of 10 is pretty good.  If Rodgers stayed healthy I would have been 8 of 10.  As it was, I was up by $97.83. 

Then there's the team prop bets: 

Correct:
Atlanta doesn't make the playoffs.  (Bet $25 at +135 odds, won $33.75) 
Indianapolis does make the playoffs.  (Bet $30 at +145 odds, won $43.50)
New Orleans does make the playoffs.  (Bet $30 at -150 odds, won $20)
Oakland doesn't make the playoffs.  (Bet $20 at -2000 odds, won $1) 
Indy wins the AFC South.  (Bet $35 at +240 odds, won $84) 
Green Bay wins the NFC North.  (Bet $40 at -140 odds, won $28.57)

Incorrect: 
Baltimore makes the playoffs. (Lost $20)
Miami makes the playoffs (Lost $20)
Tampa makes the playoffs (Lost $35)
Washington makes the playoffs (Lost $35)
Baltimore wins the AFC North (Lost $50)
New Orleans wins the NFC South (Lost $30)
St. Louis wins the NFC West (Lost $15)
Calgary wins the CFL Grey Cup (Lost $10)

So I won $210.82 and lost $215, for a net loss of $4.18.  Not bad I guess.  Shouldn't have taken those fliers on Miami and St. Louis, though the payout would have been hefty.  

My player prop bets went 0 for 11, for a total loss of $190, unless Gio Bernard somehow wins Rookie of the Year, which would get me $360.  (He was on track until stinkin' Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen came along).  I had some decent picks here, especially Jamaal Charles to win the rushing title, but ended up with an 0-fer. 

Still a few team prop bets with a chance of paying out.  My three Super Bowl bets were New Orleans, New England and Green Bay.  Saints would win me $360, Pats would net $250, and Packers $420.   I don't think any of them have a good chance, but I figure 3 out of 12 is a decent shot.  

Lastly, my player over/unders. I did one per team.  Here are the results. 

Correct: 
Rashard Mendenhall - under 750 rushing yards  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39) 
Osi Umenyiora - under 8.5 sacks  (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78) 
Greg Hardy - over 8 sacks  (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78) 
Brandon Marshall - under 102.5 receptions  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Andy Dalton - over 15.5 interceptions  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39) 
Wes Welker - under 90.5 receptions  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Calvin Johnson - over 1,405 receiving yards  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Calvin Johnson - over 10 receiving TDs  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
JJ Watt - under 15.5 sacks  (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78)
Andrew Luck - over 250 rushing yards  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Blaine Gabbert - under 10.5 games started  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Dwayne Bowe - under 1,000 receiving yards  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Ryan Tannehill - over 14.5 interceptions  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Danny Amendola - under 950 receiving yards   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Drew Brees - over 4,700 passing yards   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Dee Milliner - over 2.5 interceptions   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Denarius Moore - under 750 receiving yards   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Michael Vick - under 3,200 passing yards   (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78)
Ben Roethlisberger - over 12.5 interceptions   (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78) 
Marshawn Lynch - over 10 rushing TDs  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Tavon Austin - under 75.5 receptions   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Doug Martin - under 1,200 rushing yards   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Matt Ryan more passing yards than Romo  (Bet $30 at +115 odds, won $34.50)
AJ Green more receiving yards than Andre Johnson  (Bet $40 at +105 odds, won $42)

Incorrect: 
Ray Rice - over 1100 rushing yards.  (Lost $20)
Steve Johnson - over 6.5 receiving TDs  (Lost $20)
Trent Richardson - over 9.5 rushing TDs  (Lost $20)
Tony Romo - over 4,440 passing yards  (Lost $20)
Calvin Johnson - over 100.5 receptions (Lost $20) 
Aaron Rodgers - over 38.5 passing TDs  (Lost $20)
Adrian Peterson - over 11.5 rushing TDs (Lost $20)
Hakeem Nicks - over 5.5 receiving TDs  (Lost $20)
Ryan Matthews - under 900.5 rushing yards  (Lost $20)
Colin Kaepernick - under 550 rushing yards *SO CLOSE*  (Lost $20)
Jake Locker - over 13.5 interceptions  (Lost $20)
Robert Griffin III - over 14.5 games started  (Lost $20)
Mike Munchak - first coach fired  (Lost $25) 
Any QB rushes for 1,000 yards  (Lost $35)
Any team goes 0-16  (Lost $20)
Von Miller more sacks than Clay Matthews (Lost $40)
Ray Rice more rushing yards than CJ Spiller (Lost $30)

24 correct, 17 incorrect.  Pretty good.  That makes for a total of $390 lost and a total of $546.03 won, for a net of $156.03.  

Add them all together, and because of those stupid player prop bets (0 for 11, lost $190) I'm at a net loss of $20.32.  So unless the Pack, Pats or Saints win the Super Bowl, it's another negative season for me.  I am starting to realize why Vegas makes money.  

Bah.  

Here are the Wildcard picks: 

Chiefs (11-5) @ Colts (11-5)
Predicted Line:  IND by 2.5
Actual Line:  IND by 3 

The Chiefs started out 9-0 and then went 2-5 to end the year.  Against playoff teams, they went 1-5 this season. Their quarterback is Alex Smith. They have no receivers.  Tamba Hali is still out.  

Indy, meanwhile, has a lousy defense, no running attack, and hasn't rebounded since losing Reggie Wayne.  It's just been Andrew Luck carrying the team on his back while going 6-0 against a pathetic division.  

So what gives?    

The best unit on the field will be the KC defense, and they'll keep the game low-scoring.  But in Lucas Oil Stadium, the Chiefs offense will have a tough time getting in the end zone, and we'll see something like a 10-6 game at halftime.  I like the points in a low-scoring matchup; let's say Indy 17-16.  
(Under 47) 

Saints (11-5) @ Eagles (10-6)
Predicted Line:  NO by 2
Actual Line:  PHI by 3 

I mean, I've been driving the Nick Foles Bangwagon for over a month, and even I don't understand how Philly should be favored in this game.  Philly's defense is horrendous against the pass; the Saints will score at will. Philly will be able to keep pace for a while, but Brees will pull away.  Saints 31-24. 
(Over 54) 

Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 6
Actual Line:   CIN by 7 

Not only is Cincy 8-0 at home this season, they are 8-0 against the spread, which is downright incredible.  They scored 34 or more in 6 of those 8 home games, and in their last five home games the margins of victory have been:  40, 21, 14, 28, and 17.  In other words, San Diego is in trouble.  I'm taking the Bengals +7, not because of their offense, but because of their defense. Bengals 27-19.  
(Under 47)  

49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1)
Predicted Line:  SF by 3.5
Actual Line:   SF by 3 

Hard to believe it was just last year's playoffs when Colin Kaepernick ran for 181 yards (and threw for 263 more) to demolish the Packers, all while making the whole thing look completely effortless. The Niners outgained the Pack by 220 yards and dominated every facet of that game.  Fast-forward twelve months, and San Fran is even better than they were, and Green Bay is probably worse.

A few caveats though:  Eddie Lacy changes the complexion of this game, if he can generate any kind of a rushing attack against San Fran's front 7, which, granted, is unlikely.  But Green Bay had no running game last year to take the pressure off Rodgers.  This time, it's imperative, as Rodgers is still getting used to playing with a broken shoulder. 

Secondly, last year's playoff game was in California.  This one is in Wisconsin, with a forecast in the single digits. That favors a low-scoring game controlled by running the ball, which clearly favors the Niners. 
  
Ultimately, San Fran has the coaching edge, the personnel edge, and the biggest advantage of all:  the fact that Green Bay's defense flat-out sucks.  But, the Packers have two things San Fran doesn't:  homefield advantage, and Aaron Rodgers.  Let's see how that shoulder works.  

I have San Fran winning by 3 exactly, 27-24, but for the sake of the ATS pick, I'll say GB-3.  
(Over 47)  


Go Lions! 

Week 17 Picks

Week 16 recap: 

9-7 straight up

8-8 against the spread

10-6 over/unders

Total:


154-84-1 straight up (64.7%)
124-106-1 against the spread (53.9%)
67-60-4 over/unders (52.7) 

Here are the week 17 picks: 

Panthers (11-4) @ Falcons (4-11)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 7

Actual Line:  CAR by 6 

Since the Panthers started out 1-3 and I questioned whether Cam Newton had a future in the NFL, they have won 10 of 11, with the only loss in New Orleans.  They dominated in 6 of those games and also beat three legit playoff teams along the way. They just might be the team to beat in the NFC.  In this extra-meaningful game, they'll keep Atlanta looking hapless.  Panthers 27-14. 
(Under 46)  

Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (10-5)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 4.5
Actual Line:  CIN by 7 

Complete desperation for Baltimore; I gotta believe this spread is too high.  Bengals 19-17. 
(Under 44.5) 

Texans (2-13) @ Titans (6-9)
Predicted Line:  TEN by 5
Actual Line: TEN by 7.5

For the longest time, it looked inevitable that Teddy Bridgewater would be quarterbacking the Jaguars for many years to come. Now, Houston can secure the #1 pick and make sure Bridgewater does indeed play in the AFC South.  Incredibly, this will be their 14th straight loss.  Titans don't cover the spread though, 21-16. 
(Under 44) 

Jaguars (4-11) @ Colts (10-5)
Predicted Line:  IND by 6.5
Actual Line:  IND by 11 

Whoa there.  How are the Colts getting 11 points against anybody?  Their defense is pathetic.  Indy 28-24. 
(Over 45.5) 

Jets (7-8) @ Dolphins (8-7)
Predicted Line:  MIA by 4
Actual Line:  MIA by 6 

Dolphins still have something to play for, but the Jets would love to spoil their season.  I like the points in this defensive matchup. Miami 21-16.   Bonus prediction:  Rex Ryan does NOT get fired.  
(Under 41.5)

Speaking of coaches being fired, Black Monday is nearly upon us.  The list of coaches absolutely certain to be fired is quite small:  Mike Shanahan.  But the list of coaches with a better than 50% chance of being fired is extensive:  Jim Schwartz, Greg Schiano, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak, whoever coaches Jacksonville and Oakland.   Then there are many with a small chance of termination, including Jason Garrett, Tom Coughlin, Doug Marrone, Mike Smith, Rex Ryan, maybe even Mike Tomlin.  It should be a Black Monday to remember.  Heads will roll.  

Lions (7-8) @ Vikings (4-10-1)
Predicted Line:  DET by 2
Actual Line:  MIN by 3 

No AP, Matt Cassel at QB, and a stupid spread.  Very tempting.  Alright, fine:  Lions 27-24 in Schwartz's final game.
(Under 51.5) 

Assuming Gym Shorts does get fired (which might be giving the Lions' execs too much credit), who are the best fits for his replacement?  Someone known for disciplined teams, such as Lovie Smith, Tom Coughlin, Ken Whisenhunt?  Or someone known for developing QBs, such as Gruden, Bill O'Brien, etc.?  Or, a proven college coach, like Stanford's David Shaw or A&M's Kevin Sumlin?  Many, many options out there.  Most likely, it'll be a successful NFL coordinator who we've never heard of, not a big name like Lovie or Gruden.  We shall see. 

Redskins (3-12) @ Giants (6-9)
Predicted Line:  NYG by 3
Actual Line:  NYG by 3.5

Shanahan's final game as a head coach, Kirk Cousins's last chance for a 2014 audition, Eli's fnale to one of the worst quarterbacking seasons ever, and an end of misery for both fan bases.  With Cruz out and Cousins playing well, I am taking the Skins in an upset, 26-23. 
(Over 45) 

Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (7-8)
Predicted Line:  PIT by 6.5
Actual Line:  PIT by 7 

Steelers need a win, and the Browns have been quietly tanking for a better shot at a top 5 pick.  Looks like a blowout.  38-23. 
(Over 44)

Sidenote:  Watch out for the Browns in 2015.  With a franchise QB (like Manziel or Hundley) throwing to stud Josh Gordon, and a strong defense that will include whoever they take with Indy's 1st round pick this April, that will be a playoff team.  Unless of course their franchise QB is a dud.

Packers (7-7-1) @ Bears (8-7)
Predicted Line:  GB by 3
Actual Line:  GB by 3 

Rodgers is back!  Cutler sucks!  Packers are in the playoffs with 8 wins.  How pathetic is that.  Final score:  Pack 34-27.  
(Over 51)

Broncos (12-3) @ Raiders (4-11)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 11.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 11.5

Don't know why nobody has talked about this yet, but Peyton Manning is going to break Favre's career TD record sometime in the middle of next season.  He needs 21 more.  He'll also break the total passing yards record if he plays two more seasons. (Needs about 6,000.) What's truly amazing is that Peyton has 117 fewer interceptions than Favre.   

Also important:  the Broncos need 17 points to break the '07 Pats record for points scored in a season.  They've scored 150 more points that anybody else this season.  

Lastly, a Broncos' victory clinches homefield throughout the playoffs.  So put that all together, against a dead-duck opponent, and let's say Denver 37-13.
(Under 54)    

Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (11-4)
Predicted Line:  NE by 9.5
Actual Line:  NE by 8 

Thad Lewis is starting for the Bills again.  New England is gunning for the 2 seed. I'm not overthinking this one.  Pats 28-13. 
(Under 46.5)

Bucs (4-11) @ Saints (10-5)
Predicted Line:  NO by 12
Actual Line:  NO by 12 

A win clinches the playoffs.  Saints won't be messing around.  37-20. 
(Over 47.5)

49ers (11-4) @ Cardinals (10-5)
Predicted Line:  SF by 6
Actual Line:  SF by 1 

Great defensive matchup.  The key:  one of these quarterbacks is Carson Palmer.  Niners 16-13. 
(Under 42) 

Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (8-7)
Predicted Line:  KC by 3   *Oops* 
Actual Line:  SD by 9 

The "Nothing to Play for Chiefs" should roll out plenty of backups and treat this like a preseason game.  Rivers will pick apart the backup defense, and the Chiefs' offense will do nothing without Charles. Chargers cover with a couple late scores, 31-20. 
(Over 45) 

Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (12-3)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 12.5
Actual Line:  SEA by 12.5 

Rams defense is too good for me to take this many points.  Plus, Zac Stacy can move the chains.  Seahawks 24-17. 
(Under 42.5) 

Eagles (9-6) @ Cowboys (8-7)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 7 
Actual Line:  PHI by 7 

I invented a game called The Romo Game this week.  It works like this:  you turn on sports radio, look at the clock, and see how many minutes go by until you hear the word "Romo."  On average, it's about 30 seconds.  Often, it's less than 2 seconds. With all the stories going on right now (Peyton smashing records, Rodgers coming back, 7 marquee quarterbacks going to the playoffs, etc) the only story worthy of The Talking Heads is Romo's injury.  Seriously?  The real story should be Kyle Orton. Heck, the real story of this game is Nick Foles.  25 TDs and 2 interceptions!  That dude is incredible.   The only way this game is close is if DeMarco Murray gets 25+ carries.  But he won't.  Cowboys are too stupid.  Philly 31-17.
(Under 53) 

Go Lions?  

Week 16 Picks

Week 15 recap:

9-7 straight up
10-5-1 against the spread
6-10 over/unders

Total

145-77-1 straight up (65.1%)
116-98-1 against the spread (54.2%)
57-54-4 over/unders (51.3%) 


First, the good news.   Jim Schwartz is probably done after this season.  Barring an unlikely comeback and an even more unlikely playoff victory, Schwartz will be shown the door, along with Linehan and Cunningham.  This could be tremendous:  the new coach would likely be offensive-minded and could help Stafford develop his poor mechanics and bad decision making and actually turn that guy into a winner.  Maybe.  

Now, the bad news.   The Lions have lost 4 of 5, and let the NFC North slip through their fingers, despite the fact that Aaron Rodgers hasn't played in two months and those loses were all against teams we should have beat.  I could go on and on and on but frankly I'm tired of the Lions. 

Here are my week 16 picks:

Dolphins (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line:  MIA by 3 

Miami has something to play for and they're playing well right now.  Dolphins 26-17. 
(Under 43.5)

Giants (5-9) @ Lions (7-7)
Predicted Line:  DET by 6.5
Actual Line:  DET by 9 

No way the Lions can be favored by 9 with Schwartz's job hanging by a thread and Stafford playing like a complete fool and the secondary (which sucked in the first place) depleted.   I'm almost tempted to take the Giants straight-up, but they've completely quit on the year and Eli is giving games away and Cruz is out.  Lions 27-20. 
(Under 49)

Saints (10-4) @ Panthers (10-4)
Predicted Line:  NO by 2.5
Actual Line:  CAR by 3 

Don't get this line.  I haven't quite bought into Cam Newton as the equal counterpart to Drew Brees.  The Carolina D is good, but not this good.  Saints 24-22. 
(Under 47) 

Vikings (4-9) @ Bengals (9-5)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 9
Actual Line:  CIN by 8 

With AP questionable and leaning toward doubtful, I see no reason to believe the Vikes can score more than 17 points.  I like Cincy's chances;  13-24. 
(Under 48) 

Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (11-3)
Predicted Line:  KC by 6.5
Actual Line: KC by 7 

The Colts have alternated wins and losses since their big win against Denver in October, and all their tough road games have resulted in blowout losses.  I'm thinking that trend continues as KC rolls, 28-17. 
(Under 45.5) 

Bucs (4-10) @ Rams (6-8)
Predicted Line:  STL by 4.5
Actual Line:  STL by 5 

Taking the points; Kellen Clemens shouldn't be trusted to cover 5 points.  Rams 24-20. 
(Over 43) 

Browns (4-10) @ Jets (6-8)
Predicted Line:  NYJ by 1
Actual Line:  NYJ by 2 

Neither team can run the ball, both QBs are bad, and they've lost 9 of their last 10 games between the two of them. Cleveland has been more competitive and has the slightly better QB and the better defense, but the Jets play for the pride and the Browns are probably thinking more about the offseason.  Who knows.  I'll say Cleveland 20-19. 
(Under 40.5) 

Cowboys (7-7) @ Redskins (3-11)
Predicted Line:  DAL by 7
Actual Line:  DAL by 3 

Hey I like Kirk Cousins as much as anybody, but Dallas has something to play for and a much better team.  The easy pick here is the over (set at 54) - I think the Cowboys can win by more than a field goal. Let's go Dallas 34-30. 
(Over 54) 

Titans (5-9) @ Jags (4-10)
Predicted Line:  TEN by 1.5
Actual Line:  TEN by 5 

I'll take the points with the homedog, I guess.  Titans 26-24. 
(Over 47) 

Broncos (11-3) @ Texans (2-12)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 13.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 10 

Kudos to whatever genius put big money on Denver to win this game back in August when the spread was HOU by 3.   Denver needs to pummel them to clinch homefield, and pummel them they will.  Broncos 40-16. 
(Over 53) 

Cardinals (9-5) @ Seahawks (12-2)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 10.5
Actual Line:  SEA by 10.5

This puts an end to the Cardinals' commendable Wildcard run.  Seahawks win but don't cover, 31-24. 
(Over 43.5) 

Steelers (6-8) @ Packers (7-6-1)
Predicted Line:  PIT by 3
Actual Line:  PIT by ? 

No spread yet, but with Rodgers definitely out, I'll set the spread at PIT by 2.5 and say the Pack win straight-up, even with Matt Flynn at the helm.  Pittsburgh simply stinks on the road, and the Pack have urgency.  If they win, then Rodgers suits up next week to beat the Bears and carry the Pack into the playoffs with only 9 wins.  The Steelers have no urgency, only uncertainty and inconsistency.  Pack 21-18. 
(Under ?) 

Raiders (4-10) @ Chargers (7-7)
Predicted Line:  SD by 7.5
Actual Line:  SD by 10 

That's too many points for me to feel comfortable with.  Chargers 27-23. 
(Under 50.5) 

Patriots (10-4) @ Ravens (8-6)
Predicted Line:  NE by 3
Actual Line:  BAL by 2 

If you look at the Pats game by game, and the endless lucky breaks they've had, you can see that from a talent-perspective, this could easily be a 3-11 team.  Brady has basically morphed into a hyper-competitive version of Ben Roethlisberger this year; dreadful for 3.5 quarters, deadly in the 2-minute drill.  Mix in a ridiculous amount of luck, and you have a first-round playoff bye.  

The difference between perennially making the playoffs and perennially missing the playoffs might just be having an ultra-competitive QB who wants to win more than anybody else.   Thus, I just explained the Stafford Era in one simple sentence.  

My guess is the Pats just keep on figuring out ways to win.  Baltimore's offense is anemic.  New England by a score of 27-26.  
(Over 45) 

Bears (8-6) @ Eagles (8-6)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 3
Actual Line:  PHI by 3 

I need to find a Nick Foles Recovery Support group before it's too late.  Eagles 43-31. 
(Over 56) 

Falcons (4-10) @ 49ers (10-4) 
Predicted Line:  SF by 11.5
Actual Line:  SF by 13 

Kaepernick is starting to play his best football of the season, and the Niners probably want their final home game of the year to be memorable, so what the heck, I'll lay those 13 points.  San Fran 36-17. 
(Over 45.5) 

Go Lions!!   ...and Steelers and Eagles!  

Week 15 Picks

Week 14 recap:

11-5 straight up
11-5 against the spread
8-7 over/unders

Total

136-70-1 straight up (66.2%)
106-93-8 against the spread (53.4%)
51-44-4 over/unders (54.1%)

Too depressed to talk about the stupid Lions.  Unbelievable.  

The rest of the week was highly entertaining.  Crazy finishes, tons of playoff positioning (21 teams still alive with just three weeks left - that's incredible)  and Draft positioning on the other side of the spectrum, as four playoffs teams from 2012 (Houston, Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington) appear to be the likely top 4 picks.  Tampa and Jacksonville are determined to miss out on the franchise QBs.  Cleveland, Buffalo and Oakland are falling fast into the bottom 8.  

As Case Keenum has fallen apart, Houston appears the likely landing spot for Teddy Bridgewater, which means he and Luck would be in the same division for about a decade, which would be fantastic.  Clowney is likely heading to Atlanta with the #2 or #3 pick, and that leaves Manziel, Carr and Hundley (and maybe Boyd?) as the franchise QBs to be split between Cleveland, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, St. Louis, and maybe the Jets, Titans and Bucs.   That's a lot of teams vying for just a few quarterbacks in April.  It'll be interesting. 

But the playoffs are the more important matter, and a few teams made huge strides on Sunday.  New England and Cincy essentially clinched their divisions (Patriots got insanely lucky once again), while the Colts won the AFC South by losing.  They've now been outscored by a total of 3 points on the season, and yet lead their division by three games.  None of these teams should be considered viable contenders in the AFC;  Cincy and Indy have suspect defenses, especially Indy, and the Pats just lost Gronk for good.  They'll revert back to the lifeless offense they were early in the season.  

So that leaves three legit contenders in the AFC:  Denver (the obvious favorite), KC (built-for-the-playoffs), and a Wildcard team to be decided amongst no less than six squads.   Baltimore and Miami have slim leads, but not safe leads.  Of the many Wildcard contenders, the ones with a chance of actually winning a game or two are the Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers.  

But at this point, it's about 3:1 odds that Denver makes the Super Bowl. 

The NFC is much more precarious.  

Seattle and the Saints are in, but neither has a first-round bye locked up. Both teams are strong contenders to win the NFC, for obvious reasons.    

San Fran, Carolina, and Arizona are fighting for the two Wildcards.  The Niners and Panthers have the edge and are both very legit Super Bowl contenders as well.  

The other two playoff teams will be decided over the next three weeks.  Detroit is doing everything they can to lose the NFC North, even as Cutler and Rodgers haven't played in a month.  Philly and Dallas are going to go down to the wire with a week 17 matchup that likely determines the division champ.  Aaron Rodgers is set to return, which means the entire NFC should be afraid, not just the Lions.  And then there's the Bears, who aren't out of it at all. 

Of these teams, the only one with no chance at the Super Bowl is Chicago.  Their defense is too horrible.  But Green Bay, Detroit, Dallas, and Philly all should be taken seriously.  Especially if Rodgers is 100%.  

Basically, we have an 8-team melee in the NFC all battling for the chance to play Denver in the Super Bowl.   

With that in mind, here are the Week 15 picks: 

Chargers (6-7) @ Broncos (11-2)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 9.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 10.5 

Unfortunately for the Bolts, their playoff hopes end here.  
Denver 41-34. 
( Over 54)

Redskins (3-10) @ Falcons (3-10)
Predicted Line:  ATL by 4
Actual Line:  ATL by 6 

Pretty sure Jadeveon Clowney will be watching this game.  
Atlanta 17-16. 
(Under 51) 

49ers (9-4) @ Bucs (4-9)
Predicted Line:  SF by 5.5
Actual Line:  SF by 5

Best coach in the NFL vs. worst coach in the NFL.  
Niners 30-10. 
(Under 41.5) 

Seahawks (11-2) @ Giants (5-8)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 6
Actual Line:  SEA by 7 

Thanks in advance to Seattle for demoralizing the Giants right before they head to Detroit. 
Hawks 27-10. 
(Under 41.5) 

Bears (7-6) @ Browns (4-9)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 3
Actual Line:  CHI by 3 

With 774 receiving yards in his last four games, Josh Gordon just broke the record for most receiving yards in a four-game span. That record was set less than one month ago, by ... you guessed it, Calvin Johnson. 

Some say Gordon's achievement is even more impressive, because his QBs are so subpar.  I agree with that. Some are even arguing that Gordon, not Calvin, is currently the best WR in the league.  Hold on a second.  Aside from the brutally obvious factors, consider that Gordon is a second-year player who has already been suspended 4 games for violating the league's drug policy and been ensnared in ugly trade-rumors and coach-drama.  Let's give him a few years to grow up before we anoint his head with oil.   

Bears 24-13.
(Under 45) 

Texans (2-11) @ Colts (8-5)
Predicted Line:  IND by 9
Actual Line:  IND by 6 

Case Keenum and Wade Phillips now have a three-week audition to keep their jobs in 2014.  They have much more to play for than the Colts, who are backing into the playoffs in despicable fashion.   I am going on a limb and taking the Texans 26-23. 
(Over 45.5) 

Patriots (10-3) @ Dolphins (7-6)
Predicted Line:  NE by 3.5
Actual Line:  NE by 3 

I haven't trusted the Patriots all season, especially since the injuries to Wilfork and Mayo, and they keep lucking into ridiculous wins.  Miami is the better team, and the homedog.  Dolphins 26-22.  
(Over 45.5) 

Eagles (8-5) @ Vikings (3-9-1)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 3
Actual Line:  PHI by 5

Lots of garbage yards and points for Cordarrelle Patterson and Toby Gerhard, but Philly has too much firepower. 
Eagles 41-27. 
(Over 51) 

Bills (4-9) @ Jags (4-9)
Predicted Line:  Pick Em 
Actual Line:  BUF by 2  

Bills 17-16. 
(Under 43) 

Chiefs (10-3) @ Raiders (4-9)
Predicted Line:  KC by 7
Actual Line:  KC by 4.5 

Not overthinking it.  Chiefs 26-14. 
(Under 41)
Jets (6-7) @ Panthers (9-4)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 9.5
Actual Line:  CAR by 11 

Panthers 30-13. 
(Under 40.5) 

Packers (6-6-1) @ Cowboys (7-6)
Predicted Line:  DAL by 8.5
Actual Line:  DAL by 7 

Rodgers not playing. Cowboys have struggled to blow anybody out because of their defense.  
Dallas 31-27. 
(Over 49) 

Cardinals (8-5) @ Titans (5-8)
Predicted Line:  ARZ by 3
Actual Line:  ARZ by 3 

The Cardinals have been really bad on the road.  I'll take the Titans 17-14. 
(Under 41.5) 

Saints (10-3) @ Rams (5-8)
Predicted Line:  NO by 8
Actual Line:  NO by 6 

This is our ninth road favorite, and fifth that's favored by more than a field goal. I've taken all those big road favorites except the Pats.  This seems to be the time of year for blowouts.  Saints 31-16. 
(Over 47) 

Bengals (9-4) @ Steelers (5-8)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 2.5
Actual Line:  CIN by 3 

Rumors are starting to float about firing Mike Tomlin.  I don't think the Rooneys are that stupid, but if they are, I hope the Lions snatch him up in about 30 seconds.  
Steelers 27-24. 
(Over 40.5) 

Ravens (7-6) @ Lions (7-6)
Predicted Line:  DET by 3
Actual Line:  DET by 6 

I don't even feel remotely good about the Lions winning this game, so I'd be idiotic to take them -6.  

Let's say Lions 23-20 in OT.  
(Under 48)