Here is my final top 117
Fantasy Cheat Sheet – Top 117
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN
2. Chris Johnson, TEN
3. Ray Rice, BAL
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
5. Andre Johnson, HOU
6. Peyton Manning, IND
7. Aaron Rodgers, GB
8. Michael Turner, ATL
9. Steven Jackson, STL
10. Randy Moss, NE
11. Phillip Rivers, SD
12. Frank Gore, SF
13. Brandon Marshall, MIA
14. Reggie Wayne, IND
15. Roddy White, ATL
16. Drew Brees, NO*
17. Anquan Boldin, BAL
18. Tom Brady, NE
19. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
20. Tony Romo, DAL
21. Calvin Johnson, DET
22. Greg Jennings, GB
23. Miles Austin, DAL
24. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
25. Sidney Rice, MIN
26. Steve Smith, CAR
27. DeSean Jackson, PHI
28. Marques Colston, NO*
29. Matt Ryan, ATL
30. Matt Schaub, HOU
31. Ronnie Brown, MIA
32. Ryan Grant, GB
33. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
34. Felix Jones, DAL
35. LeSean McCoy, PHI
36. Joe Flacco, BAL
37. Shonn Greene, NYJ
38. Chad Johnson, CIN*
39. Dallas Clark, IND
40. Ryan Matthews, SD
41. Matt Forte, CHI
42. Antonio Gates, SD
43. Hines Ward, PIT
44. Michael Crabtree, SF
45. Percy Harvin, MIN
46. Clinton Portis, WAS
47. Knowshon Moreno, DEN
48. Cedric Benson, CIN*
49. Wes Welker, NE
50. Mike Wallace, PIT
51. Steve Smith, NYG
52. Dez Bryant, DAL
53. Pierre Thomas, NO
54. Jamaal Charles, KC
55. Jerome Harrison, CLE
56. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
57. Joseph Addai, IND
58. Beanie Wells, ARZ
59. Ben Tate, HOU
60. Tashard Choice, DAL
61. Jonathon Stewart, CAR
62. CJ Spiller, BUF
63. Donovan McNabb, WAS
64. Brett Favre, MIN
65. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA*
66. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
67. Brent Celek, PHI
68. Julian Edelman, NE
69. Dwayne Bowe, KC*
70. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
71. Willis McGahee, NYG
72. Vernon Davis, SF
73. Jason Witten, DAL
74. Owen Daniels, HOU
75. Donald Driver, GB
76. Braylon Edwards, NYJ
77. Eddie Royal, DEN
78. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
79. Darren McFadden, OAK
80. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
81. Jahvid Best, DET
82. Pittsburgh DST
83. Baltimore DST
84. Jermichael Finley, GB
85. Chris Cooley, WAS
86. Zach Miller, OAK
87. Laurent Robinson, STL
88. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
89. Pierre Garcon, IND
90. Michael Jenkins, ATL
91. Antonio Bryant, CIN
92. Devery Henderson, NO
93a. Johnny Know, CHI
93b. Devin Aromashadu, CHI
94. Malcolm Floyd, SD
95. Lee Evans, BUF
96. Chaz Schilens, OAK
97. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
98. Carson Palmer, CIN
99. Jay Cutler, CHI*
100. Kevin Kolb, PHI
101. Marc Sanchez, NYJ
102. Chad Henne, MIA
103. Alex Smith, SF
104. Michael Bush, OAK
105. LaDanian Tomlinson, NYJ
106. Reggie Bush, NO
107. Marion Barber, DAL
108. Justin Forsett, SEA
109. Darren Sproles, SD
110. Donald Brown, IND
111. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
112. Derrick Mason, BAL
113. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
114. Kevin Walter, HOU
115. Nate Burleson, DET
116. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
117. James Jones, GB
* indicates players I won’t be drafting for various reasons (injuries or spite) but I am simply ranking them appropriately so as to not seem like an idiot, when in reality I wouldn’t draft Ochocinco in the 12th round
I'm going to be taking a few days off to give you all time to read the full NFC and AFC Previews and the position rankings and give some comments and feedback. Since I've written over 20,000 words about the NFL in the last couple weeks I thought I'd take a little break. I'm gonna do a couple mock fantasy drafts using my rankings and see how I like my teams. Maybe an updated Lions preview after that or some thoughts on the NBA once LeBron makes his pick tonight.
Peace be the journey.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
LeBronimo
Seeing as how a huge story could break any minute now, I thought I'd post some official predictions as to what will happen with the NBA free agents. It will begin with the LeBron domino (or, the LeBronimo) sometime tomorrow or Thursday (although it technically began with Amare's commitment to the Knicks) and then all the other pieces will fall into place.
The numbskulls at ESPN have all predicted that LeBron will remain in Cleveland, but they couldn't be more wrong. It's a decision between New York and New Jersey right now, with Chicago in third. Cleveland is a distant fourth, and the Clippers and Heat are out of the discussion.
As much as LeBron wants to play with Derrick Rose, I think the shadow of MJ is keeping him from Chicago. I think he wants to play in Brooklyn, but the Nets aren't moving there until 2012 and he doesn't want to waste two seasons in New Jersey. I think the allure of being the best Knick of all time is too enticing for him to pass up, as well as creating a legacy as perhaps the greatest New York athlete of all time. He wants to be the "global icon" and there's no better place to do that than the biggest city in America.
Just like I predicted a couple months ago, LeBron will be a New York Knick in 2010. Probably within 48 hours. I think Amare Stoudemire does affect the decision positively, but I think it would have happened either way.
Once that happens, Chicago will pull the trigger on Wade. They're close, but waiting to hear for sure what LeBron's going to do. But I think Wade is ready to commit to Chicago, his home town, and will sign there within 24 hours of LeBron's announcement.
Shortly after Wade's arrival, Chris Bosh will join him in Chicago. Bosh's priority from day 1 of free agency has been to join either LBJ or D-Wade; he's tired of carrying the load and wants to be the sidekick for a few seasons. Wade+Bosh+Rose will actually give Chicago the best team in the NBA, although the Knicks and Lakers will be very good. Next season is going to be loads of fun.
With Dirk and Pierce and Joe Johnson staying put, the next big domino to fall is Carlos Boozer. I thought he would go wherever Bosh doesn't go, which will end up being Miami. But if Boozer is wise, he'll opt to stay in Utah since Miami without Wade is a wasteland. So Carlos remains in Utah yet again.
Now that the Knicks have Amare, their need to re-sign David Lee is diminished and he's up for grabs. Unfortunately for the Nets, he's their constellation prize. But he is a perfect fit there - a goofy white guy in New Jersey playing with Brook Lopez.
There's a lot of talk about Carmelo Anthony's upcoming free agency next summer, as well as Kevin Durant's. I'll squash those rumors right now and let you all know - both will be signed to contract extensions before September and locked into their current teams for another 4 years and $100 million. Denver and Oklahoma City don't want to risk what Cleveland's going through now.
Speaking of Cleveland, they'll have loads of cap room to spare once LeBron is a Knick and all the others have gone their ways. So too will Miami. So what will be their respective fates? Well, it's bleak. Let's just say it won't be pretty. Neither team will be making the playoffs next season; in fact, neither will win more than 30 games. There has to be a couple losers in this free agency, and sorry Cleveland and Miami, but you're it.
There are a few unsettled situations left to be resolved. One is Manu Ginobili. Another is Ray Allen. I think both will stay put, but the Nets will be willing to overpay either guy since they didn't get Lebron. They may successful steal Ginobili, who will probably be eager to join the much less competitive Eastern Conference. Allen will stay in Beantown for one more shot at a ring.
Then there's Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and Shaq - three free agents who would have been coveted 5 seasons ago but are now very late afterthoughts. I think Houston has to re-sign Yao after losing the Bosh sweepstakes, and McGrady goes somewhere for a minimum contract, like the Kings. Shaq will replace Rasheed as Boston's backup big man.
And that leaves two wildly overrated shooting guards left in free agency - Richard Jefferson and Michael "Always Injured" Redd. I think the Spurs re-sign Jefferson to a one-year deal so they can get him off the books next season in order to keep Duncan next summer, and I think Redd can't find any love from the Bucks now that they have Salmons locked in long-term. Actualyl he probably won't find much love anywhere, but will settle for a small deal - say 3 years and $14 million - from a scorer-needy team like Minnesota or Charlotte.
So to recap:
LeBron joins Amare on the Knicks, Wade & Bosh to the Bulls, Lee & Ginobili to the Nets, and Boozer and Allen stay put.
Your 2011 NBA Finals: Bulls over Nuggets in 6.
Fantasy Rankings: Part Six
Defenses
I'd recommend not taking a defense until the second to last round, but if you don't feel the need to grab depth at RB or WR I suppose you could grab a Tier One defense in the eight or ninth round and you probably wouldn't regret it. Although defenses tend to be just as volatile as kickers.
Tier One: The Elite
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
Tier Two: The Elite With Tougher Schedules
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. New York Jets
5. Minnesota Vikings
Tier Three: Fantasy Efficient
6. Green Bay Packers
7. San Francisco 49ers
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Tier Four: Better Fantasy Defenses Than Real-Life Defenses
10. New York Giants
11. New England Patriots
12. San Diego Chargers
13. Indianapolis Colts
Tier Five: The Sleepers
14. Houston Texans
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Chicago Bears
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Atlanta Falcons
19. Washington Redskins
Tier Six: Good Defense, But Very Bad Team
20. Buffalo Bills
Tier Seven: At Least They Play In Easy Divisions
21. Denver Broncos
22. New Orleans Saints
23. Arizona Cardinals
24. Oakland Raiders
25. Carolina Panthers
26. Seattle Seahawks
Tier Eight: It Sucks To Be In The AFC South
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
28. Tennessee Titans
Tier Nine: Don’t Even Consider Drafting Them, But Maybe Pick Them Up For A Good Matchup Later In The Season If You Feel Lucky, But Even Then Don’t Expect Much
29. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Kansas City Chiefs
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I'd recommend not taking a defense until the second to last round, but if you don't feel the need to grab depth at RB or WR I suppose you could grab a Tier One defense in the eight or ninth round and you probably wouldn't regret it. Although defenses tend to be just as volatile as kickers.
Tier One: The Elite
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
Tier Two: The Elite With Tougher Schedules
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. New York Jets
5. Minnesota Vikings
Tier Three: Fantasy Efficient
6. Green Bay Packers
7. San Francisco 49ers
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Tier Four: Better Fantasy Defenses Than Real-Life Defenses
10. New York Giants
11. New England Patriots
12. San Diego Chargers
13. Indianapolis Colts
Tier Five: The Sleepers
14. Houston Texans
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Chicago Bears
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Atlanta Falcons
19. Washington Redskins
Tier Six: Good Defense, But Very Bad Team
20. Buffalo Bills
Tier Seven: At Least They Play In Easy Divisions
21. Denver Broncos
22. New Orleans Saints
23. Arizona Cardinals
24. Oakland Raiders
25. Carolina Panthers
26. Seattle Seahawks
Tier Eight: It Sucks To Be In The AFC South
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
28. Tennessee Titans
Tier Nine: Don’t Even Consider Drafting Them, But Maybe Pick Them Up For A Good Matchup Later In The Season If You Feel Lucky, But Even Then Don’t Expect Much
29. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Kansas City Chiefs
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Rankings: Part Five
Kickers
Kickers and random and everybody knows this. But that doesn't mean we can't obsess about the best way to take advantage of their randomness and score the most points, even if it's a futile obsession. You can take the easy way out and draft kickers who play on elite offenses, or guys with the strongest legs, or be a little sneaky and take guys who play for teams that kick a lot of field goals because they can run the ball but can't throw. (ie. Bironas on the Titans). Or, you can do what I did last year and pick the guys who play the most indoor games, because statistics show that it's much easier to kick indoors with no wind or rain. But Kris Brown didn't work out for me last year, despite 11 indoor games. So I have a new strategy, one that I employed through most of last season and it fared me well.
I'm going to play kickers week by week. No emotional bonds, no attachment whatsoever. I'll pick a guy up, use him once, and throw him away like a used diaper. Only kickers with favorable matchups will be in my roster, and never will I be one of those idiots who has two kickers on the roster even for a second. If my guy is facing the Ravens, he's gone. Playing in the snow, gone. Playing at Heinz Field, gone. I don't care if he just kicked 8 field goals the week before. I don't care if he booted one in from 75 yards. No attachments. I'll cut him like a wrist.
So when drafting a kicker, I'll wait until the last round, as always, and even then I won't have a cheat sheet or even pay attention to what the other drafters have done. I hope some dummy will take a kicker in the 10th round and brag about how they landed the league's best kicker (like that means anything), and then when it's my turn to make my final pick, I'll glance at the list of kickers remaining, and take whoever has the most favorable week 1 matchup. That's it. That's the only criteria. Because week 2, I'll pick up someone else.
Here are my kicker rankings:
1. Arizona's kicker (week 1 @ St. Louis)
2. Chicago's kicker (week 1 vs. Detroit)
3. Cleveland's kicker (week 1 @ Tampa)
4. Miami's kicker (week 1 @ Buffalo)
5. San Diego's kicker (week 1 @ KC)
And if none of those guys are available, I'll just take whoever is at the top of the list. But I'm fairly sure Cleveland's kicker will not be a valued commodity on draft day. So I guess it's me and you, Phil Dawson.
Stay tuned for the final Rankings: Defenses/Special Teams.
Kickers and random and everybody knows this. But that doesn't mean we can't obsess about the best way to take advantage of their randomness and score the most points, even if it's a futile obsession. You can take the easy way out and draft kickers who play on elite offenses, or guys with the strongest legs, or be a little sneaky and take guys who play for teams that kick a lot of field goals because they can run the ball but can't throw. (ie. Bironas on the Titans). Or, you can do what I did last year and pick the guys who play the most indoor games, because statistics show that it's much easier to kick indoors with no wind or rain. But Kris Brown didn't work out for me last year, despite 11 indoor games. So I have a new strategy, one that I employed through most of last season and it fared me well.
I'm going to play kickers week by week. No emotional bonds, no attachment whatsoever. I'll pick a guy up, use him once, and throw him away like a used diaper. Only kickers with favorable matchups will be in my roster, and never will I be one of those idiots who has two kickers on the roster even for a second. If my guy is facing the Ravens, he's gone. Playing in the snow, gone. Playing at Heinz Field, gone. I don't care if he just kicked 8 field goals the week before. I don't care if he booted one in from 75 yards. No attachments. I'll cut him like a wrist.
So when drafting a kicker, I'll wait until the last round, as always, and even then I won't have a cheat sheet or even pay attention to what the other drafters have done. I hope some dummy will take a kicker in the 10th round and brag about how they landed the league's best kicker (like that means anything), and then when it's my turn to make my final pick, I'll glance at the list of kickers remaining, and take whoever has the most favorable week 1 matchup. That's it. That's the only criteria. Because week 2, I'll pick up someone else.
Here are my kicker rankings:
1. Arizona's kicker (week 1 @ St. Louis)
2. Chicago's kicker (week 1 vs. Detroit)
3. Cleveland's kicker (week 1 @ Tampa)
4. Miami's kicker (week 1 @ Buffalo)
5. San Diego's kicker (week 1 @ KC)
And if none of those guys are available, I'll just take whoever is at the top of the list. But I'm fairly sure Cleveland's kicker will not be a valued commodity on draft day. So I guess it's me and you, Phil Dawson.
Stay tuned for the final Rankings: Defenses/Special Teams.
Fantasy Rankings: Part Four
Tight Ends
The least glamorous position in fantasy football and often a total crapshoot, but not nearly as random as the DST and kicker positions. There are a few definite studs near the top, but also some excellent depth and late-round sleepers. The question, as always, is how early to begin the run of tight ends. Last year I reached on Jason Witten in the fifth round and regretted it; however, if I'd reached on Dallas Clark it would have been a great move. Or I could have waited until the last round and got TD machine Vernon Davis.
1. Dallas Clark, IND
I don't think he'll match the 10 TDs from last season, but I do think he'll notch 100 catches and 1,000 yards again. He's basically a premier slot receiver who just happens to have the letters "TE" next to his name. He's Peyton Manning's favorite target, and an easy fifth or sixth round pick.
2. Antonio Gates, SD
To me, Gates and Clark are miles ahead of the rest of the league's tight ends in terms of dependability. Gates has scored at least 8 TDs in six straight seasons, and despite being "injury-prone," he's not missed a game in two seasons. With Vincent Jackson's suspension and holdout looming, it's hard not to move Gates up ahead of Clark.
3. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
I debated Vernon Davis and Brent Celek and even Witten, but ultimately Gonzalez is the safest option as the third TE off the board. But once the first two are gone, I'd wait another two or three rounds. TEs 3-8 are interchangable to me.
4. Brent Celek, PHI
Will play the role of the primary possession receiver for the Eagles, and might be a needed safety-net for Kevin Kolb in his first season as a starter. Also a great red-zone guy.
5. Vernon Davis, SF
I love his talent, but I'm positive that he won't match the 13 TDs from a year ago, especially with Crabtree joining the team in more of a full-time role. But I'd expect another solid year of 70 catches, 800 yards, and 6-8 TDs.
6. Jason Witten, DAL
A bust last year as he scored only 2 TDs, but you can't ignore a guy who's averaged 90 catches and 1,040 yards a season since 2007. He's still only 28 years old, and plays on an elite offense with a quarterback who doubles as his best friend. But Wade Phillips uses Witten in a blocking role a little too often for fantasy owners to be happy, especially near the end zone.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU
You could easily argue that Daniels is a top 3 tight end; heck, he was on pace for 10 TDs and 1,000 yards through 8 games last year. But his third ACL rupture causes concern, as does a potential contract dispute. Still, he's the number two target on a pass-heavy offense. If you draft him, you'll probably want some TE insurance.
8. Jermichael Finley, GB
I'm not as high on him as a lot of other folks, which is odd because I can usually spot sleepers within the NFC North. He's a freakish athlete, a huge man with blazing speed, but he takes a backseat to Donald Lee as well as two top receivers, and I see James Jones as the breakout star in Green Bay this season, not Finley. Still, 60 catches, 600 yards and 5-6 TDs are to be expected in Rodgers' high-powered offense.
9. Chris Cooley, WAS
Call me crazy, but I think the Cooley-McNabb combo is a match made in heaven. At least in fantasy heaven. McNabb loves checking down to tight ends, and Cooley loves to catch the ball. He'll essentially be the slot receiver and might have a Dallas Clark-like year with 100 catches. But I'm not totally sold on the idea, hence the lowish ranking. But he's my top TE sleeper.
10. Zach Miller, OAK
My other top TE sleeper is Miller, another slot receiver with the "TE" label. He's a top three NFL tight end in terms of speed, and the only proven pass-catcher on the Raiders. If he caught 66 balls for 800 yards and 3 TDs, what might he do with Jason Campbell?
11. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
As long as Favre is the quarterback, VS should score at least 6 times and have 500+ yards.
12. Dustin Keller, NYJ
I'm not a huge fan of Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, or Marc Sanchez, and that means the athletic tight end should benefit. He's not in there for blocking purposes at all. Not a terrible pick.
13. John Carlson, SEA
14. Greg Olsen, CHI
15. Kevin Boss, NYG
16. Heath Miller, PIT
A group of semi-talented white guys who are trappen in less-than-ideal situations.
17. Kellen Winslow, TB
Probably the safest receiving option on an awful offense.
18. Tony Scheffler, DET
If you want a homer pick you can take Scheffler and hope he delivers on what Linehan says he will.
19. Fred Davis, WAS
20. Martellus Bennett, DAL
Should be pretty productive despite being second on their depth charts. But at this point the tight ends are done being drafted and we're just being nitpicky.
21. Benjamin Watson, CLE
22. Todd Heap, BAL
23. Jeremy Shockey, NO
24. Anthony Fasano, MIA
25. Bo Scaife, TEN
26. Jermaine Gresham, CIN
27. Brandon Pettigrew, DET
28. Marcedes Lewis, JAX
29. Shawn Nelson, BUF
30. Ed Dickson, BAL
That's all I got on tight ends. Not too exciting. My advice would be that it's okay to reach in the fifth round for Clark or Gates or even Gonzalez if you really want him, but not if a guy like Anquan Boldin or Phillip Rivers is still on the board. Don't be an idiot; only make the reach if you don't like your other options. And of course, don't take Todd Heap in the third round. Just ask Mike Bartels about that.
Also, to see the infamous video of Vernon Davis that I am obsessed with, click here.
The least glamorous position in fantasy football and often a total crapshoot, but not nearly as random as the DST and kicker positions. There are a few definite studs near the top, but also some excellent depth and late-round sleepers. The question, as always, is how early to begin the run of tight ends. Last year I reached on Jason Witten in the fifth round and regretted it; however, if I'd reached on Dallas Clark it would have been a great move. Or I could have waited until the last round and got TD machine Vernon Davis.
1. Dallas Clark, IND
I don't think he'll match the 10 TDs from last season, but I do think he'll notch 100 catches and 1,000 yards again. He's basically a premier slot receiver who just happens to have the letters "TE" next to his name. He's Peyton Manning's favorite target, and an easy fifth or sixth round pick.
2. Antonio Gates, SD
To me, Gates and Clark are miles ahead of the rest of the league's tight ends in terms of dependability. Gates has scored at least 8 TDs in six straight seasons, and despite being "injury-prone," he's not missed a game in two seasons. With Vincent Jackson's suspension and holdout looming, it's hard not to move Gates up ahead of Clark.
3. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
I debated Vernon Davis and Brent Celek and even Witten, but ultimately Gonzalez is the safest option as the third TE off the board. But once the first two are gone, I'd wait another two or three rounds. TEs 3-8 are interchangable to me.
4. Brent Celek, PHI
Will play the role of the primary possession receiver for the Eagles, and might be a needed safety-net for Kevin Kolb in his first season as a starter. Also a great red-zone guy.
5. Vernon Davis, SF
I love his talent, but I'm positive that he won't match the 13 TDs from a year ago, especially with Crabtree joining the team in more of a full-time role. But I'd expect another solid year of 70 catches, 800 yards, and 6-8 TDs.
6. Jason Witten, DAL
A bust last year as he scored only 2 TDs, but you can't ignore a guy who's averaged 90 catches and 1,040 yards a season since 2007. He's still only 28 years old, and plays on an elite offense with a quarterback who doubles as his best friend. But Wade Phillips uses Witten in a blocking role a little too often for fantasy owners to be happy, especially near the end zone.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU
You could easily argue that Daniels is a top 3 tight end; heck, he was on pace for 10 TDs and 1,000 yards through 8 games last year. But his third ACL rupture causes concern, as does a potential contract dispute. Still, he's the number two target on a pass-heavy offense. If you draft him, you'll probably want some TE insurance.
8. Jermichael Finley, GB
I'm not as high on him as a lot of other folks, which is odd because I can usually spot sleepers within the NFC North. He's a freakish athlete, a huge man with blazing speed, but he takes a backseat to Donald Lee as well as two top receivers, and I see James Jones as the breakout star in Green Bay this season, not Finley. Still, 60 catches, 600 yards and 5-6 TDs are to be expected in Rodgers' high-powered offense.
9. Chris Cooley, WAS
Call me crazy, but I think the Cooley-McNabb combo is a match made in heaven. At least in fantasy heaven. McNabb loves checking down to tight ends, and Cooley loves to catch the ball. He'll essentially be the slot receiver and might have a Dallas Clark-like year with 100 catches. But I'm not totally sold on the idea, hence the lowish ranking. But he's my top TE sleeper.
10. Zach Miller, OAK
My other top TE sleeper is Miller, another slot receiver with the "TE" label. He's a top three NFL tight end in terms of speed, and the only proven pass-catcher on the Raiders. If he caught 66 balls for 800 yards and 3 TDs, what might he do with Jason Campbell?
11. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
As long as Favre is the quarterback, VS should score at least 6 times and have 500+ yards.
12. Dustin Keller, NYJ
I'm not a huge fan of Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, or Marc Sanchez, and that means the athletic tight end should benefit. He's not in there for blocking purposes at all. Not a terrible pick.
13. John Carlson, SEA
14. Greg Olsen, CHI
15. Kevin Boss, NYG
16. Heath Miller, PIT
A group of semi-talented white guys who are trappen in less-than-ideal situations.
17. Kellen Winslow, TB
Probably the safest receiving option on an awful offense.
18. Tony Scheffler, DET
If you want a homer pick you can take Scheffler and hope he delivers on what Linehan says he will.
19. Fred Davis, WAS
20. Martellus Bennett, DAL
Should be pretty productive despite being second on their depth charts. But at this point the tight ends are done being drafted and we're just being nitpicky.
21. Benjamin Watson, CLE
22. Todd Heap, BAL
23. Jeremy Shockey, NO
24. Anthony Fasano, MIA
25. Bo Scaife, TEN
26. Jermaine Gresham, CIN
27. Brandon Pettigrew, DET
28. Marcedes Lewis, JAX
29. Shawn Nelson, BUF
30. Ed Dickson, BAL
That's all I got on tight ends. Not too exciting. My advice would be that it's okay to reach in the fifth round for Clark or Gates or even Gonzalez if you really want him, but not if a guy like Anquan Boldin or Phillip Rivers is still on the board. Don't be an idiot; only make the reach if you don't like your other options. And of course, don't take Todd Heap in the third round. Just ask Mike Bartels about that.
Also, to see the infamous video of Vernon Davis that I am obsessed with, click here.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
All Star Game Outrage!
It was bad enough that Brennan Boesch wasn't voted to play in the MLB All-Star game. He deserved it. Among AL outfielders, he's having the best year of anyone, hands down, in terms of hitting the ball. Right now, he's the second best hitter in the Majors in terms of average, and fourth in terms of power. That's not among rookies; that's among all players. The problem is, he doesn't have enough at-bats to "qualify" - whatever that means. He's only 30 ABs behind teammate Miguel Cabrera, who qualifies without a problem. What does Boesch have to do? He missed the first three weeks of the season, was called up as a rookie, and ever since has been batting more consistently, more lethally, and more successfully than anyone and everyone in the baseball world. But he's not an all-star?
In the month of May, he had a better batting average than ANYONE in the MLB. To prove it was no fluke, he had the fifth best batting average of anyone in the month of June. And to prove he's not a two-month wonder, he's hitting .538 in July, well on his way to 3 straight rookie of the month honors. It's egregious and preposterous that Boesch didn't make the AL all-star game, and was beat out by 6 outfielders, none of which boast the stats that he does.
But that's not the outrage I'm talking about. I understand why he didn't make it, and I'm fine with it. I understand that all-star games are a popularity contest, and the fans want to see the players they know and love, and Boesch is a complete unknown outside of Michigan. I get all that. Unless you cheer for the Tigers or play fantasy baseball, you probably never heard of him. Although he'll be rookie of the month three straight times and is a iron-clad lock to be Rookie of the Year, he won't be a household name for at least another season or two. He should have plenty of all-star games to look forward to, and I'm sure he's not bitter about missing this one.
The outrage is that Atlanta Braves ROOKIE outfielder Jason Heyward DID in fact make the NL all-star game, and as a STARTER no less. Let's take a quick look at the numbers:
Boesch: .344 average, .398 on-base %, .603 slugging, 12 HRs, 46 RBIs, 77 hits, 16 doubles, 3 triples, 20 walks, 45 strikeouts, 2 steals in 60 games and 224 at-bats.
Heyward: .251 average, .366 on-base %, .455 slugging, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs, 64 hits, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 42 walks, 68 strikeouts, 5 steals in 71 games and 255 at-bats.
So maybe Heyward is just a much-better all-around player? Maybe he's a better fielder? Hmmm..
Boesch: .974 fielding percentage, 3 errors, 3 outfield assists
Heyward: .968 fielding percentage, 4 errors, 0 outfield assists
So Boesch is actually a BETTER fielder according to the stats. And obviously, a much better hitter.
So how is it that Boesch will be sitting at home while Heyward is not only playing in Anahiem, but STARTING??? It's absurd, illogical, outlandish, unacceptable, disturbing, annoying, laughable, and downright inexusable. The all-star game needs to be fixed. What are we doing? Awarding mediocrity while the true "stars" watch the game from home? If it's merely a popularity contest, maybe Cal Ripken Jr. should play too. I mean, what happened to awarding the best players statistically rather than letting the idiotic fans pick the guys they hear about the most in the news? Boesch is an all-star every bit as much as Galarraga threw a perfect game, and I hate Bud Selig and the entire MLB.
And that's all I have to say about that.
I hope you enjoyed this little break from football, and stay tuned for Fantasy Football Rankings Part 4: Tight Ends.
In the month of May, he had a better batting average than ANYONE in the MLB. To prove it was no fluke, he had the fifth best batting average of anyone in the month of June. And to prove he's not a two-month wonder, he's hitting .538 in July, well on his way to 3 straight rookie of the month honors. It's egregious and preposterous that Boesch didn't make the AL all-star game, and was beat out by 6 outfielders, none of which boast the stats that he does.
But that's not the outrage I'm talking about. I understand why he didn't make it, and I'm fine with it. I understand that all-star games are a popularity contest, and the fans want to see the players they know and love, and Boesch is a complete unknown outside of Michigan. I get all that. Unless you cheer for the Tigers or play fantasy baseball, you probably never heard of him. Although he'll be rookie of the month three straight times and is a iron-clad lock to be Rookie of the Year, he won't be a household name for at least another season or two. He should have plenty of all-star games to look forward to, and I'm sure he's not bitter about missing this one.
The outrage is that Atlanta Braves ROOKIE outfielder Jason Heyward DID in fact make the NL all-star game, and as a STARTER no less. Let's take a quick look at the numbers:
Boesch: .344 average, .398 on-base %, .603 slugging, 12 HRs, 46 RBIs, 77 hits, 16 doubles, 3 triples, 20 walks, 45 strikeouts, 2 steals in 60 games and 224 at-bats.
Heyward: .251 average, .366 on-base %, .455 slugging, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs, 64 hits, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 42 walks, 68 strikeouts, 5 steals in 71 games and 255 at-bats.
So maybe Heyward is just a much-better all-around player? Maybe he's a better fielder? Hmmm..
Boesch: .974 fielding percentage, 3 errors, 3 outfield assists
Heyward: .968 fielding percentage, 4 errors, 0 outfield assists
So Boesch is actually a BETTER fielder according to the stats. And obviously, a much better hitter.
So how is it that Boesch will be sitting at home while Heyward is not only playing in Anahiem, but STARTING??? It's absurd, illogical, outlandish, unacceptable, disturbing, annoying, laughable, and downright inexusable. The all-star game needs to be fixed. What are we doing? Awarding mediocrity while the true "stars" watch the game from home? If it's merely a popularity contest, maybe Cal Ripken Jr. should play too. I mean, what happened to awarding the best players statistically rather than letting the idiotic fans pick the guys they hear about the most in the news? Boesch is an all-star every bit as much as Galarraga threw a perfect game, and I hate Bud Selig and the entire MLB.
And that's all I have to say about that.
I hope you enjoyed this little break from football, and stay tuned for Fantasy Football Rankings Part 4: Tight Ends.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Fantasy Rankings: Part Three
Wide Receivers.
Sadly, this post will not have pictures in it, because while they add such aesthetic beauty to my writing, they also mess up the format.
These rankings were the toughest yet, but I feel I did a pretty swell job. Let me know what you think.
1. Andre Johnson, HOU
Let’s just say this: I won’t hesitate at all to pick Andre Johnson with the eight overall pick.
2. Randy Moss, NE
Tough call here, but I went with Moss because of sheer TD potential.
3. Brandon Marshall, MIA
A lock for 100 receptions and 1,000 yards and 10 TDs on Miami.
4. Reggie Wayne, IND
You can’t get more safe. Or more boring.
5. Roddy White, ATL
As I’ve said before, this is a breakout year for Matt Ryan, and White will obviously be the main beneficiary. He’s one of the few safe picks at this position.
6. Anquan Boldin, BAL
I also expect a breakout year from Flacco, and Boldin will be the beneficiary in a big way. If Derrick Mason caught over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs at age 35, Boldin can certainly do better.
7. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
Wasn’t sure how far to drop Fitz down the board after the retirement of Kurt Warner. I guessed conservatively and left him in the top ten. Apparently the guys at ESPN have never seen Matt Leinart play, because they still have Larry as the third receiver on their board. We’ll see which one of us is right on that. Pretty sure it will be me.
8. Calvin Johnson, DET
Megatron is mega-talented, but you know how much I hate Matthew Stafford …CJ will have some monster games and some total goose eggs.
9. Greg Jennings, GB
With Driver hitting the 35 year old wall and having double knee surgery, it’s a safe bet that Jennings reclaims the spot as Rodgers’ favorite target and that means good things. Very good things. A whole lot more than the measly 4 TDs he had last year.
10. Miles Austin, DAL
Don’t think he’ll repeat last year’s numbers now that he’s the #1 guy, but I do think he’ll prove that he was no fluke. He’s a talented dude. And the Cowboys offense is a well-oiled machine.
11. Sidney Rice, MIN
He’ll be Brett Favre’s favorite target once again and will improve on the 8 TDs.
12. Steve Smith, CAR
The Panthers are definitely a run-first team, but that actually benefits Smith because it opens up the play-action and gives him single coverage on bombs. And that’s where he’s lethal. But keep an eye on his broken arm.
13. DeSean Jackson, PHI
A lot of cheat sheets have him as a top 5 WR. I don’t agree. Losing the strong arm of McNabb will hurt, and Kolb doesn’t have the strength or accuracy of McNabb on the long ball. Jackson will definitely NOT score 7 times from 50 yards out like he did last year.
14. Marques Colston, NO
The Saints spread the ball around so much that even their #1 receiver isn’t a great fantasy option. And I hate to keep bringing up the Madden Curse, but you know …
15. Vincent Jackson, SD
Between the holdout and the three-game suspension resulting from his DUI, he’s an obvious risk. He also might get traded. But if he signs and plays by week 4, it’s worth the risk in a big way.
16. Chad Johnson, CIN
He should score 6-8 times and have about 1,000 yards. Which makes him the third best receiver named Johnson.
17. Hines Ward, PIT
With Santonio gone, Hines will have a bigger responsibility in Pittsburgh to make big plays downfield, and that’s on top of being one of the most trusty possession receiver around.
18. Michael Crabtree, SF
Definite gamble but also huge potential reward. Crabtree was one of the best receivers in NCAA history. An entire summer of training camp should help him and Alex Smith develop a nice rapport.
19. Percy Harvin, MIN
Favre has always liked to spread the ball around and Harvin has speed up the wazoo. He’ll probably run for a good 200-300 yards as well.
20. Wes Welker, NE
Coming off an ACL tear, Welker is an obvious risk. But he seems to be progressing quickly and will be worth a draft pick if you can be patient. He’ll return with a vengeance. He and Brady have the best QB/WR rapport in the NFL.
21. Mike Wallace, PIT
As Ward gets older and slower, Wallace could become a breakout star in Steel City. Wouldn’t shock me if he replicated Holmes’s numbers from last season – 1200 yards and 5 TDs.
22. Steve Smith, NYG
A very consistent possession guy who should catch close to 100 balls, but won’t be a big TD guy at all with Nicks and Boss and Manningham in the mix.
23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA
Returning from sports hernia surgery, Housh is yet another WR injury risk, but as the consummate possession guy he should be a safe bet for 90+ catches and 6 TDs.
24. Dez Bryant, DAL
Huge potential as the #2 receiver on a great team and a lot more talent than people realize.
25. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
Enters the season on a four-game suspension, but should be his usual productive self after that. I think he’ll easily overtake Braylon as the #1 guy on the Jets.
26. Julian Edelman, NE
Depending on how much time Welker misses, Edelman could be a major sleeper. He’ll have Welker-like numbers until Welker comes back. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft both guys, and drop Edelman when the time comes.
27. Dwayne Bowe, KC
Loads of talent but a complete knucklehead. If he can avoid another suspension he should be worth a spot as your #3 WR.
28. Donald Driver, GB
This is probably too high of a ranking for an old guy with bad knees, and I do think that James Jones will slowly take over Driver’s job, but being the possession receiver for the Packers is a safe gig.
29. Braylon Edwards, NYJ
He’ll be low on catches (maybe 50 or 60) but big on big-plays in the Jets’ effective play-action offense.
30. Eddie Royal, DEN
With Marshall gone, the door is wide open for Royal to emerge. But I don’t think he's a sure bet to do so.
31. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
The go-to receiver on a rush-first offense with a mediocre QB. Safe pick but very little upside.
32. Laurent Robinson, STL
No guarantee that he’ll be the Rams’ #1 receiver, but I think he will.
33. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
34. Pierre Garcon, IND
I’ve got no idea which will be the #2 and which will be the #3. Technically Dallas Clark is the #2 receiver. But Manning will throw to anyone, as he proved last year.
35. Michael Jenkins, ATL
Should be productive if Ryan is as good as I keep saying he will be.
36. Antonio Bryant, CIN
He’ll be the downfield threat now that Ochostinko is getting a bit slower. A few big plays scattered.
37. Devery Henderson, NO
Speaking of scattered big plays, Henderson is the ultimate in feast or famine.
38. Johnny Knox, CHI
39. Devin Aromashadu, CHI
Either one of these guys have huge breakout potential, but I don’t know which will lead the Bears in receiving. Hopefully by the time of the fantasy draft we’ll know. If not, pick one and hope you get lucky.
40. Malcolm Floyd, SD
With Vincent Jackson missing some time, Floyd stands to gain a lot.
41. Lee Evans, BUF
What a shame.
42. Chaz Schilens, OAK
Here’s a big-time sleeper for you. He’ll be Jason Campbell's top receiver.
43. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Might overtake Royal for the starting job in Denver.
44. Derrick Mason, BAL
Solid but unspectacular stats as Flacco’s possession guy.
45. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Big-play speed but lots of options in the Philly passing game.
46. Kevin Walter, HOU
I think he might lose his job to Jacoby Jones but we’ll see.
47. Nate Burleson, DET
Should be better than Bryant Johnson was, but that’s not saying much.
48. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Probably Eli Manning’s go-to guy in the red zone.
49. James Jones, GB
#3 receiver on a great passing offense.
50. Golden Tate, SEA
If Houshmandzadeh has a hard time recovering, Tate will probably be the go-to guy in Seattle.
The rest ...
51. Kenny Britt, TEN
52. Mario Manningham, NYG
53. Josh Morgan, SF
54. Jacoby Jones, HOU
55. Mohammad Massaquoi, CLE
56. Arrelious Benn, TB
57. Michael Clayton, TB
58. Chris Chambers, KC
59. Santana Moss, WAS
60. Devin Thomas, WAS
61. Jericho Cotchery, NYJ
62. Davonne Bess, MIA
63. Donnie Avery, STL
64. Steve Breaston, ARZ
65. Ted Ginn Jr., SF
66. Roy Williams, DAL
67. Torry Holt, NE
68. Justin Gage, TEN
69. Louis Murphy, OAK
70. Donte Stallworth, BAL
71. Robert Meachem, NO
72. Lance Moore, NO
73. Bernard Berrian, MIN
74. Nate Washington ,TEN
75. Early Doucet, ARZ
Some Final Thoughts
As I compiled this list I was stunned at how much turmoil surrounds the receiver position this season. Injuries, suspensions, contract disputes, and lousy quarterback play. There's really only 11 safe WRs this season in my opinion - Andre and Calvin Johnson, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Roddy, Boldin, Fitzgerald, Austin, Rice, and Jennings. That's it. And I think the best way to win your fantasy league is to get two guys from this list of 11.
To do that, you've obviously got to be willing to pass on RBs and QBs early, which means you need to know which QBs and RBs to target in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. That's a tough sacrifice to make. When you're drafting Carson Palmer and the guy sitting next to you has Peyton Manning, it's going to make you feel sick. But keep in mind, you'll have two elite receivers, and he'll have Percy Harvin and Devin Aromashadu.
Obviously it all depends on the draft order. If I'm picking 12th (for the third year in a row), I will take two WRs UNLESS one of my top 7 RBs is on the board or one of my top 2 QBs. That's not a strategy set in stone but something like that. Don't make up your mind that you're going RB no matter what and then take Ryan Grant over Randy Moss. Compare the stats straight up: who's going to give you more yards and TDs, Grant or Moss? It's not even a question.
In fact, it's highly likely that Andre Johnson will have a better year in terms of yards + TDs than any running backs except Sonic and AP. My projections are somwhere around 1,500 yards and 10 TDs, though he could easily go for 15 TDs or maybe even more. Do you really trust Jones-Drew to do that, or Gore, or Turner? Can't we just not look at the positions and pick merely based on production? Shouldn't Andre be a concensus top 5 overall pick?
If you're picking in the middle to late first round, it probably makes more sense to take a RB (or maybe a top level QB) and then take an elite WR on the way back. You won't get Andre, but you'll get your choice of either Moss or Wayne. But if you pass on Steven Jackson at pick 7, he's not coming back to you. There are advantages to having a stud running back.
This year is tough, because I don't see a ton of sleeper candidates at either the RB or WR positions. None that I truly trust anyway. I see more sleepers at QB to be honest. So after the first 3 rounds, it's a total crapshoot with the backs and receivers. You might hit it big like Ray Rice last year, or you might grab Earnest Graham. The problem with fantasy football is that no one, not even the 'experts,' knows what they're talking about. You've either got to be lucky, or have a fool-proof strategy.
A few last words of advice about receivers:
-Watch out for divas, drugs, and suspensions.
-Don't draft anyone you hate.
-Don't forget the importance of YouTube.
-And lastly, above all else, do NOT take Terrell Owens.
Sadly, this post will not have pictures in it, because while they add such aesthetic beauty to my writing, they also mess up the format.
These rankings were the toughest yet, but I feel I did a pretty swell job. Let me know what you think.
1. Andre Johnson, HOU
Let’s just say this: I won’t hesitate at all to pick Andre Johnson with the eight overall pick.
2. Randy Moss, NE
Tough call here, but I went with Moss because of sheer TD potential.
3. Brandon Marshall, MIA
A lock for 100 receptions and 1,000 yards and 10 TDs on Miami.
4. Reggie Wayne, IND
You can’t get more safe. Or more boring.
5. Roddy White, ATL
As I’ve said before, this is a breakout year for Matt Ryan, and White will obviously be the main beneficiary. He’s one of the few safe picks at this position.
6. Anquan Boldin, BAL
I also expect a breakout year from Flacco, and Boldin will be the beneficiary in a big way. If Derrick Mason caught over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs at age 35, Boldin can certainly do better.
7. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
Wasn’t sure how far to drop Fitz down the board after the retirement of Kurt Warner. I guessed conservatively and left him in the top ten. Apparently the guys at ESPN have never seen Matt Leinart play, because they still have Larry as the third receiver on their board. We’ll see which one of us is right on that. Pretty sure it will be me.
8. Calvin Johnson, DET
Megatron is mega-talented, but you know how much I hate Matthew Stafford …CJ will have some monster games and some total goose eggs.
9. Greg Jennings, GB
With Driver hitting the 35 year old wall and having double knee surgery, it’s a safe bet that Jennings reclaims the spot as Rodgers’ favorite target and that means good things. Very good things. A whole lot more than the measly 4 TDs he had last year.
10. Miles Austin, DAL
Don’t think he’ll repeat last year’s numbers now that he’s the #1 guy, but I do think he’ll prove that he was no fluke. He’s a talented dude. And the Cowboys offense is a well-oiled machine.
11. Sidney Rice, MIN
He’ll be Brett Favre’s favorite target once again and will improve on the 8 TDs.
12. Steve Smith, CAR
The Panthers are definitely a run-first team, but that actually benefits Smith because it opens up the play-action and gives him single coverage on bombs. And that’s where he’s lethal. But keep an eye on his broken arm.
13. DeSean Jackson, PHI
A lot of cheat sheets have him as a top 5 WR. I don’t agree. Losing the strong arm of McNabb will hurt, and Kolb doesn’t have the strength or accuracy of McNabb on the long ball. Jackson will definitely NOT score 7 times from 50 yards out like he did last year.
14. Marques Colston, NO
The Saints spread the ball around so much that even their #1 receiver isn’t a great fantasy option. And I hate to keep bringing up the Madden Curse, but you know …
15. Vincent Jackson, SD
Between the holdout and the three-game suspension resulting from his DUI, he’s an obvious risk. He also might get traded. But if he signs and plays by week 4, it’s worth the risk in a big way.
16. Chad Johnson, CIN
He should score 6-8 times and have about 1,000 yards. Which makes him the third best receiver named Johnson.
17. Hines Ward, PIT
With Santonio gone, Hines will have a bigger responsibility in Pittsburgh to make big plays downfield, and that’s on top of being one of the most trusty possession receiver around.
18. Michael Crabtree, SF
Definite gamble but also huge potential reward. Crabtree was one of the best receivers in NCAA history. An entire summer of training camp should help him and Alex Smith develop a nice rapport.
19. Percy Harvin, MIN
Favre has always liked to spread the ball around and Harvin has speed up the wazoo. He’ll probably run for a good 200-300 yards as well.
20. Wes Welker, NE
Coming off an ACL tear, Welker is an obvious risk. But he seems to be progressing quickly and will be worth a draft pick if you can be patient. He’ll return with a vengeance. He and Brady have the best QB/WR rapport in the NFL.
21. Mike Wallace, PIT
As Ward gets older and slower, Wallace could become a breakout star in Steel City. Wouldn’t shock me if he replicated Holmes’s numbers from last season – 1200 yards and 5 TDs.
22. Steve Smith, NYG
A very consistent possession guy who should catch close to 100 balls, but won’t be a big TD guy at all with Nicks and Boss and Manningham in the mix.
23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA
Returning from sports hernia surgery, Housh is yet another WR injury risk, but as the consummate possession guy he should be a safe bet for 90+ catches and 6 TDs.
24. Dez Bryant, DAL
Huge potential as the #2 receiver on a great team and a lot more talent than people realize.
25. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
Enters the season on a four-game suspension, but should be his usual productive self after that. I think he’ll easily overtake Braylon as the #1 guy on the Jets.
26. Julian Edelman, NE
Depending on how much time Welker misses, Edelman could be a major sleeper. He’ll have Welker-like numbers until Welker comes back. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft both guys, and drop Edelman when the time comes.
27. Dwayne Bowe, KC
Loads of talent but a complete knucklehead. If he can avoid another suspension he should be worth a spot as your #3 WR.
28. Donald Driver, GB
This is probably too high of a ranking for an old guy with bad knees, and I do think that James Jones will slowly take over Driver’s job, but being the possession receiver for the Packers is a safe gig.
29. Braylon Edwards, NYJ
He’ll be low on catches (maybe 50 or 60) but big on big-plays in the Jets’ effective play-action offense.
30. Eddie Royal, DEN
With Marshall gone, the door is wide open for Royal to emerge. But I don’t think he's a sure bet to do so.
31. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
The go-to receiver on a rush-first offense with a mediocre QB. Safe pick but very little upside.
32. Laurent Robinson, STL
No guarantee that he’ll be the Rams’ #1 receiver, but I think he will.
33. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
34. Pierre Garcon, IND
I’ve got no idea which will be the #2 and which will be the #3. Technically Dallas Clark is the #2 receiver. But Manning will throw to anyone, as he proved last year.
35. Michael Jenkins, ATL
Should be productive if Ryan is as good as I keep saying he will be.
36. Antonio Bryant, CIN
He’ll be the downfield threat now that Ochostinko is getting a bit slower. A few big plays scattered.
37. Devery Henderson, NO
Speaking of scattered big plays, Henderson is the ultimate in feast or famine.
38. Johnny Knox, CHI
39. Devin Aromashadu, CHI
Either one of these guys have huge breakout potential, but I don’t know which will lead the Bears in receiving. Hopefully by the time of the fantasy draft we’ll know. If not, pick one and hope you get lucky.
40. Malcolm Floyd, SD
With Vincent Jackson missing some time, Floyd stands to gain a lot.
41. Lee Evans, BUF
What a shame.
42. Chaz Schilens, OAK
Here’s a big-time sleeper for you. He’ll be Jason Campbell's top receiver.
43. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Might overtake Royal for the starting job in Denver.
44. Derrick Mason, BAL
Solid but unspectacular stats as Flacco’s possession guy.
45. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Big-play speed but lots of options in the Philly passing game.
46. Kevin Walter, HOU
I think he might lose his job to Jacoby Jones but we’ll see.
47. Nate Burleson, DET
Should be better than Bryant Johnson was, but that’s not saying much.
48. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Probably Eli Manning’s go-to guy in the red zone.
49. James Jones, GB
#3 receiver on a great passing offense.
50. Golden Tate, SEA
If Houshmandzadeh has a hard time recovering, Tate will probably be the go-to guy in Seattle.
The rest ...
51. Kenny Britt, TEN
52. Mario Manningham, NYG
53. Josh Morgan, SF
54. Jacoby Jones, HOU
55. Mohammad Massaquoi, CLE
56. Arrelious Benn, TB
57. Michael Clayton, TB
58. Chris Chambers, KC
59. Santana Moss, WAS
60. Devin Thomas, WAS
61. Jericho Cotchery, NYJ
62. Davonne Bess, MIA
63. Donnie Avery, STL
64. Steve Breaston, ARZ
65. Ted Ginn Jr., SF
66. Roy Williams, DAL
67. Torry Holt, NE
68. Justin Gage, TEN
69. Louis Murphy, OAK
70. Donte Stallworth, BAL
71. Robert Meachem, NO
72. Lance Moore, NO
73. Bernard Berrian, MIN
74. Nate Washington ,TEN
75. Early Doucet, ARZ
Some Final Thoughts
As I compiled this list I was stunned at how much turmoil surrounds the receiver position this season. Injuries, suspensions, contract disputes, and lousy quarterback play. There's really only 11 safe WRs this season in my opinion - Andre and Calvin Johnson, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Roddy, Boldin, Fitzgerald, Austin, Rice, and Jennings. That's it. And I think the best way to win your fantasy league is to get two guys from this list of 11.
To do that, you've obviously got to be willing to pass on RBs and QBs early, which means you need to know which QBs and RBs to target in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. That's a tough sacrifice to make. When you're drafting Carson Palmer and the guy sitting next to you has Peyton Manning, it's going to make you feel sick. But keep in mind, you'll have two elite receivers, and he'll have Percy Harvin and Devin Aromashadu.
Obviously it all depends on the draft order. If I'm picking 12th (for the third year in a row), I will take two WRs UNLESS one of my top 7 RBs is on the board or one of my top 2 QBs. That's not a strategy set in stone but something like that. Don't make up your mind that you're going RB no matter what and then take Ryan Grant over Randy Moss. Compare the stats straight up: who's going to give you more yards and TDs, Grant or Moss? It's not even a question.
In fact, it's highly likely that Andre Johnson will have a better year in terms of yards + TDs than any running backs except Sonic and AP. My projections are somwhere around 1,500 yards and 10 TDs, though he could easily go for 15 TDs or maybe even more. Do you really trust Jones-Drew to do that, or Gore, or Turner? Can't we just not look at the positions and pick merely based on production? Shouldn't Andre be a concensus top 5 overall pick?
If you're picking in the middle to late first round, it probably makes more sense to take a RB (or maybe a top level QB) and then take an elite WR on the way back. You won't get Andre, but you'll get your choice of either Moss or Wayne. But if you pass on Steven Jackson at pick 7, he's not coming back to you. There are advantages to having a stud running back.
This year is tough, because I don't see a ton of sleeper candidates at either the RB or WR positions. None that I truly trust anyway. I see more sleepers at QB to be honest. So after the first 3 rounds, it's a total crapshoot with the backs and receivers. You might hit it big like Ray Rice last year, or you might grab Earnest Graham. The problem with fantasy football is that no one, not even the 'experts,' knows what they're talking about. You've either got to be lucky, or have a fool-proof strategy.
A few last words of advice about receivers:
-Watch out for divas, drugs, and suspensions.
-Don't draft anyone you hate.
-Don't forget the importance of YouTube.
-And lastly, above all else, do NOT take Terrell Owens.
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