A Top 10 List

I've decided to broaden my horizons and write about more stuff than just football. Especially because it's week 16 already and in 2 months I won't know what to write about. So here is a list of the 10 movies I've seen the most times, in my estimation. Not sure why ... just something I've thought about before. I found myself surprised by the results.

10. The Fugitive & Air Force One (tie)
Harrison Ford basically plays the same character in these two movies. He walks, talks, and grimaces in exactly the same way. Both movies have laughably implausible plots and weak supporting acting. Both movies are way over-the-top and feature vengeful one-liners through gritted teeth (Get off my plane; You missed your stop). Basically, these are the exact same movie. And for some sick, inexplicable reason, I love them both. Estimated views: 11

9. Happy Gilmore
From 1996 to 2003, Adam Sandler basically made the same movie 10 times, and it got progressively less funny each time. He always has a five-letter name which ends in 'Y' (Happy, Billy, Robby, Bobby, Sonny, Nicky, Barry, Davey, Henry) and often dates a girl who's initials are 'V.V.' (Virginia Venit, Vicki Vallencourt, Valerie Veran, Veroncia Vaughn). Then in 2004 he started attempting halfway serious movies, such as Spanglish and The Longest Yard, which were terrible. After a rare gem with Reign Over Me (a surprisingly brilliant film), Sandler fell back into the mold with garbage films such as Chuck & Larry and The Zohan. His career can basically be summarized with the phrase: "Make as much money as you can, and don't worry about quality." Anyway, the reason I brought it up is because Happy Gilmore, Sandler's first major success, was the origin from which all the crappy films spawned. And it was brilliant. It's a rare movie that gets funnier each time, and is acted with such perfect comedic timing and expression that it has become timeless. I never get tired of Happy Gilmore. Estimated views: 13

8. The Patriot & Braveheart (tie)
I can't stand Mel Gibson, but I loved these movies before I found out what a psychopath he is. The more you watch these two movies, the more you realize how nearly identical they are - the rise from reluctant family man to vengeful warrior to fearless leader to ultimately, freedom. Both movies have awesome battle scenes where Mel's troop appears to be outnumbered but has secret friends hiding in ambush; both movies have truly atrocious villains; both movies have the signature Mel Gibson Inspirational Battle Speech; both movies have gut-sinking moments of despair (when Gabriel is killed by the British jerk; when Robert the Bruce betrays Wallace), and both movies, of course, have FREEEEEDOOMMMMMMMM.
Estimated views: 14 each

7. Dumb and Dumber
Perfect blend of subtlety and stupidity. Jim Carrey at his absolute best. Estimated views: 17

6. Prefontaine
I used to watch this about 5 times a year during high school. Maybe the most underrated sports movie of all time. A great story. Estimated views: 19.

5. Zoolander
Inflated on this list because once during a game of Risk I watched it 3 times in a row. A very underrated comedy which gets funnier every time you watch it, similar to Happy Gilmore. Ben Stiller's only truly hilarious performance. I contend that he was in fact NOT funny in Meet the Parents (or anything else), but instead was carried by Owen Wilson and Robert DeNiro. But in Zoolander, he's positively perfect. Estimated views: 20

4. Napoleon Dynamite
Also inflated because I once watched it 5 times in one day during J-Term at Cornerstone. My friend Curt and I basically studied this movie and only quote the obscure lines that people don't remember. Such as "Why are you so sweaty?" or "Do the chickens have large talons?" Estimated views - 22

3. Tommy Boy
Still the funniest movie I've ever seen and probably always will be. The only movie that I can quote from start to finish. Estimated views - 25

2. Fight Club & Boondock Saints (Tie)
The two movies which define my college experience. Testosterone, humor, guns, lots of swearing, and a profundity which you wouldn't expect. Estimated views - 26 each.

1. I Heart Huckabees
For a while, this was the only movie I owned. I watched it probably 10 times during the summer of 2007. I love the writing of this movie, and literally catch something new every time I see it. Brilliant script; brilliant performances by Dustin Hoffman and Mark Wahlberg. Just a really, really, smartly-made movie. Estimated times I've seen it - 27.

Honorable Mention:

1. American History X
I've seen it a lot, probably 6 or 7 times, but it's a little hard to watch because of the curb scene and the prison scene. If you've seen it, you know what I mean. Edward Norton gives arguably a top 10 acting performance in movie history.

2. Green Street Hooligans
Another prototypical college movie. This is basically Fight Club minus the nihilism, plus British soccer gangs. Elijah Wood is somehow likeable and super annoying at the same time.

3. Brick
I think I've seen it 7 or 8 times, and I hope that one day it surpasses Fugitive/Air Force One on the top 10 list. A real Makes You Think movie, and a phenomenal acting job by Joseph Gordon-Levitt. Very interesting. Not for the faint of heart, or the easily distracted.


So there you go. Hope you enjoyed it. Peace out and Merry Christmas.

Week 16 Picks

I'm skipping the week 15 wrap up, because it's already Thursday. Let me just quickly say that:

the Eagles comeback was insane, the Pats look unbeatable, so do the Falcons, the Steelers better get Polamalu back for the playoffs or they're toast, the 6-10 Rams might host the 12-4 Saints in the Wildcard round, if you honestly believe Brett Favre's career is over then you are a moron, and the Lions have won 2 straight. For the week I went 7-9, so I'm 119-101-4, and 9-6 on the Lions.

Ok, here's the week 16 picks:

Panthers @ Steelers - Thursday night
Predicted Line: PIT by 14
Actual Line: PIT by 14

With Carolina on a magnificent one-game winning streak and Troy Polamalu resting his injured ankle, you might think I'm tempted to take the Panthers. But I'm not.

This is still a lousy rookie QB, on the road, against a defense with 6 Pro Bowlers. Pittsburgh is vulnerable to great offenses when Troy is out, but fortunately for them, Carolina is not a great offense. In fact, they might be one of the worst offenses of all time. And since Jonathan Stewart is a through-the-tackles back with no pass-catching ability, I expect him to rumble about 16 times for about 40 yards, while Jimmy Claussen goes 7-19 for 85 yards and 2 INTs. In short, Pittsburgh will only need 6 points to win this game. And I think they'll score in the 30s. They don't want to risk playing a first round playoff game for many reasons, not the least of which is Troy's ankle.

"Hoz come dem Stellers uronny up by turteen?"

"Cuz is'a firs quarter ... come ooof it."

"Oh my gaaawd, nuh-uh."

I'll take Pittsburgh 31- 3.

Cowboys (5-9) @ Cardinals (4-10)
Predicted Line: DAL by 7
Actual Line: DAL by 7

A pretty high spread for a road favorite, but Dallas is not a 5-9 team - they are more like a 10-4 team who didn't try for the first eight weeks. And Arizona is a 4-10 team which is actually more like a 1-13 team. Despite being just one game apart in the standings, these teams couldn't be more different from a talent perspective. 90% of the betting action is on Dallas. I'll take them too.

Patriots (12-2) @ Bills (4-10)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 9

Another heavy road favorite, and this one is more tricky. Buffalo tends to cover large spreads at home, and New England might not be fully focused as they prepare for the postseason. They need to secure homefield, so they won't rest any starters, but they know it only takes a 70% effort to beat the Bills.

The key to covering a 9 point spread is controlling the clock. Buffalo needs to run on New England and move the chains to keep it close. They just might be able to do that. Patriots rank 15th against the run. Their defense style is bend-but-don't-break. Ryan Fitzpatrick is sort of a covering fiend. I'll take the Bills ATS, but the Pats will win 31-24.

Jets (10-4) @ Bears (10-4)
Predicted Line: CHI by 1.5
Actual Line: CHI by 1

Two 10-4 teams which aren't nearly as good as their records indicate. Sadly, one of these jokes is going to be 11-4, and I guess I hope it's the Bears, though I can't say I've ever routed for Jay Cutler before. But Rex Ryan and his wall-forming, feet-loving, trash-talking egomaniacal bullcrap is probably my least favorite thing about the NFL right now. He's like the Sarah Palin of football. I just don't want to hear about him. Please make him go away.

It's going to be a snowy, low-scoring game between two mistake-prone quarterbacks and shaky running games. Both defenses are solid. Revis will shut down Knox; Peppers will pressure Sanchez. Predictably, both teams will kind of suck. Chicago probably eeks out a close game, 14-17.

Ravens (10-4) @ Browns (5-9)
Predicted Line: BAL by 5
Actual Line: BAL by 3.5

A win would clinch the playoffs for Baltimore and keep them in contention for a first round bye. Cleveland has nothing to play for after losing to the Bengals last week. Ravens have won the last 5 meetings, and I think it'll easily become 6.

I'm tempted to pick Cleveland to cover and hope Baltimore wins by a field goal, but I'll play it safe and take the favorite. Ravens 24-20.

Titans (6-8) @ Chiefs (9-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 7
Actual Line: KC by 5

My initial reaction: Why is this line so low?

But then I realized ... these teams are nearly identical. That they have such different records is just a reflection of the divisions they are in. Examine the similarities:

-Bad quarterbacks who are weirdly overrated
-Elite running backs with amazing speed
-Inconsistent receivers who sometimes have 3 TDs and sometimes have zero catches
-Average offensive lines with 1 or 2 studs
-Underrated stud DEs (Jason Babin on TEN, Tamba Hali on KC)
-Pretty good linebackers
-Lousy secondaries but one solid corner

Having already taken the favorite in the first five contests, I want to give Tennessee the benefit of the doubt. I think they'll keep this game close and possibly win outright. Jeff Fisher seems to have them refocused and they would love to ruin KC's season. I'll take the Titans.

49ers (5-9) @ Rams (6-10)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 2.5

Ah yes, the classic week 16 matchup between division rivals who are fighting for a playoff birth with combined records of 11-19. How riveting.

All season, St. Louis has been completely disrespected by Vegas, while San Fran has been completely overrated. This game is the culmination. How are they suggesting that the 49ers (without Frank Gore!) are the better team?? How egregiously irresponsible!

Without overthinking it, I'm going to take the Rams, 17-20. The line being 2.5 instead of 3 makes me feel even better about this pick.

If the Rams do win, it means 3 things:
1) Sam Bradford led his team to the playoffs as a rookie and secured the ROY which he probably already secured 3 weeks ago
2) Mike Singletary will be a defensive coordinator next year
3) San Fran will be taking a QB in April's draft. Probably either Mallet or Newton.

Lions (4-10) @ Dolphins (7-7)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4.5
Actual Line: MIA by 3.5

Aha! For the first time all year, Detroit gets respect from the oddsmakers!

And let's be honest, they deserve it. Two weeks in a row they've defeated potential playoff teams, and both wins were pretty legit. The defense is playing extremely well (11 sacks in the last 3 games) and the offense is finally using its greatest weapon (Megatron had 10 catches for 152 yards last week, one of his best career games) now that Drew Stanton is under center. Now, Shaun Hill should be back in the lineup, and that'll only make the offense better. No offense to Stanton - he did a nice job of competing - but Hill clearly has a better arm and a better understanding of the playbook.

Miami is sort of in a funk right now. They just got eliminated from the playoffs with a crushing home loss to Buffalo, and have to be contemplating their future with Chad Henne. He's suddenly looking very much like the inaccurate stiff he was at U of M. They've struggled to run the ball lately, largely due to the ineffectiveness of Brandon Marshall.

Defensively they rank 6th against the pass, 6th against the run, and 4th overall, while OLB Cameron Wake now leads the NFL in sacks with 14. You would think I'd be terrified of facing them, but for some reason I'm not. I certainly don't like Jeff Backus's chances of containing Wake around the corner, but I think Mo Morris is a solid blocker in the backfield and he'll get plenty of snaps. I should also be worried about corner Vontae Davis taking on Calvin (he's emerged as a legitimate lockdown CB), but I just don't believe anyone can guard Calvin outside of Revis and Asomugha. It's going to require double coverage, and I like the way Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew are playing lately. Call me crazy, call me a total kool-aid-drinking overreactor, but I think the Lions will win this game straight up.

And that's all I have to say about that.

Redskins (5-9) @ Jaguars (8-6)
Predicted Line: JAC by 6
Actual Line: JAC by 7

As a semi-closet-Colts fan, this game angers me. Jacksonville does not belong in the playoffs. And yet Mike Shanahan refuses to play his best quarterback and is essentially forfeiting this game. Rex Grossman is an idiot. I don't care how many TDs he threw in a loss. It was a loss. He's not a winner, and he's not going to win this game either. Ugh. I don't know if you've seen any interviews of Shanny explaining his decision to bench McNabb (here's one), but his mannerisms are eerily reminiscent of President GW Bush. The squint, the ramlbing, the condescending smile. It's incredible that this guy won 2 Super Bowls. This whole thing just doubles my respect for John Elway; how did he win multiple championships with that jackass calling the shots?

Anyhow, I'm not fooled by Grossman's solid statistical game last week. Stats mean nothing if your team never has a chance to win. Carson Palmer has put up solid stats all year. Grossman is not a winner, and to start him over McNabb is just plain vindictive and assinine. The funny thing is - I don't even like McNabb, and he's been terrible this year! If anything, start John Beck!

All that being ranted, I still don't like taking the Jags to cover by 7. They aren't a high-powered offense, and their secondary stinks. On top of that, they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss to the Colts. They tend to play the Colts like it's their Super Bowl, and then follow it up with a letdown. Not saying they'll lose to Grossman, but I think it'll be closer than 7. I'll take the Jags by 3, 23-20.

Colts (8-6) @ Raiders (7-7)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: IND by 3

Strange as it sounds, these teams are actually pretty evenly matched, except of course at the quarterback position. With Austin Collie going onto IR (joining Dallas Clark), Manning be once again be without a possession receiver. His running game has been horrendous all year (all decade?), and his top receiver will be erased by Nnamdi Asomugha. So basically ... either Pierre Garcon has a monster game, or Oakland hangs around and makes this a close game.

My bet is on the latter. Darren McFadden should be able to shred the league's 28th ranked rush defense, which will make live a lot easier for Jason Campbell, who doesn't usually fare too well against great pass rushers. The Colts of course have Freeney and Mathis, but don't get to unleash them too often because of the awful run defense. Maybe they oughta trade their 1st round pick for a 400 pound DT and fix their defense? Just a thought.

Of course, 87% of the betting action is on Indy. Because who honestly thinks the Raiders can beat Peyton Manning and the Colts? Logic says take the Raiders and the points, but experience says don't pick against Manning when it matters. I'll go with Indy.

Chargers (8-6) @ Bengals (3-11)
Predicted Line: SD by 8
Actual Line: SD by 7.5

I've heard a lot of ESPN Radio folks say over the past week "Kansas City has two home games, while San Diego has to win twice on the road..." as an argument for why the Chiefs will win the AFC West. But most of those folks have failed to mention that San Diego plays against Cincinnati and Denver, who are a combined 6-22, while the Chiefs play the Titans (6-8) and Raiders (7-7). Who really has the easier schedule to end the season? It's gotta be the Chargers.

This game promises to be disgusting. Ochocinco and TO are both sitting out with "injuries" and Carson Palmer will be throwing pick-sixes all over the place. Phillip Rivers probably only needs to throw 10 passes in this blowout. Chargers win 42-7.

Texans (5-9) @ Broncos (3-11)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 3

That's four exact lines., and six have been guessed within a point. Not bad at all.

It's painful to even think about this game. The only question keeping me from taking the Texans is: did they quit on Gary Kubiak last week? I honestly don't know. I'm leaning towards yes. Last week, two of their players fought each other during the loss to Tennessee. But still, can I raelly pick Denver, who might be without their entire offense (AKA Knowshon Moreno)? The bottom line is: can I really place my trust in Tim Tebow?!?

To cover a 3 point spread as a home dog against a team which might have quit ... Yes. I absolutely can. Broncos win 27-20.

Seahawks (6-8) @ Bucs (8-6)
Predicted Line: TB by 7
Actual Line: TB by 6

Once again, Josh Freeman shouldn't be favored by a touchdown. He's a comeback kid. And the Tampa defense is completely shredded. This line would be too high against any team other than Seattle.

However, the Seahawks are completely worthless when they have to travel to the East Coast. They're 1-8 in their last 9 East Coast games, and 13-28 overall on the road since 2006. If this line were a few points higher I'd take Seattle, but I like my chances with Tampa by 6.

Giants (9-5) @ Packers (8-6)
Predicted Line: GB by 1
Actual Line: GB by 3

I guessed the line assuming Rodgers will play (which it sounds like is a safe assumption), but still missed 2 points too low. Can't believe the public overreaction following the Giants collapse. They're still a great football team, and they won't have the "emotional letdown" everyone thinks they'll have. Green Bay has too many injuries, even if Rodgers plays, and is completely one-dimensional on offense. That dimension is passing. This game should be in the snow. The Giants can run the ball extremely well. Can you see where I'm going with this? The Giants should win. I'm taking them with relative confidence.

Vikings (5-9) @ Eagles (10-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 13
Actual Line: PHI by 14

Oh man. I intentionally overguessed by 5 points (my first reaction was Eagles by 8), and I still shot too low. Guess the oddsmakers aren't big believers in Joe Webb, huh? Amazingly, 78% of the action is going on the Eagles to cover by two touchdowns.

I don't feel great about adding to that percentage. Adrian Peterson should be back in action, and Philly stinks against the run. This game should at least be somewhat close. Ish. Maybe Eagles by 10 or 13. But not 14. Heck, let's not forget that Leslie Frazier is a pretty stinking good coach, and the Vikings still have Jared Allen and Kevin Williams - two of the best defensive linemen in the NFC. This won't be the Michael Vick Cakewalk that you expect. I'll take Vikings and the points.

Saints (10-4) @ Falcons (12-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3.5
Actual Line: ATL by 2.5

Ouch. Major disrespect. Saints are the better team despite the Falcons' 12-2 record and 8 game winning streak?

It's still mathematically possible that Atlanta doesn't win the NFC South, but only if the Saints win this game and their next game, AND Atlanta would have to lose at home to Carolina. That's simply not going to happen. But it won't stop the Saints from trying.

This game has a pseudo-revenge factor after Atlanta beat the Saints in the Superdome thanks to a missed 19 yard field goal in OT. But remember, Matt Ryan is 99-2 at home or something like that, and Michael Turner is on a rampage. It's very hard not to pick Atlata. Especially with the line being less than 3. I'll take the Falcons, 30-27, in a preview of the NFC Championship game.

That's all I got. Go Lions.

And please cheer for my 5 fantasy teams which are playing in the Finals.
My QBs are Rodgers (x2), Vick (x2) and Josh Freeman.
My RBs include Jamaal Charles (x2), McFadden (x2), Blount (x2), and several others.
My WRs - A myriad of guys, but I've got Garcon and Andre Johnson thrice each.
My TEs - Celek, Boss, Moeaki, Cooley, and Tamme.
My DSTs - Miami (x2), Chargers, Steelers, and Bucs.

In 2 of the ESPN leagues, the championship is a two-week affair where they combine the scores from weeks 16 and 17. Weird, but kind of cool I guess.

Go Lions and Merry Christmas.

Sadness

Thanks to Malcolm Floyd's unexpected no-show, Adrian Peterson's last-minute scratch, Reggie Wayne's stinkbomb, and 35 freaking points for Ray Rice, I have been eliminated from the A League.

If I had played either of the other teams in the playoffs, I'd have won comfortably and would be playing for $240. But instead I played the team with Ray Rice and Drew Brees, also known as my stupid freaking brother, and now I'm suffering from post-fantasy-football-depression (PFFD).

However, I made the Finals in the B league, and also in 4 of my other 10 leagues. Ironically, my best ESPN team lost in the Semi-Finals, 122-133, thanks again to AP's goose egg and also to Dan Carpenter, who missed four field goals. Now all I have to do is win at least 3 of the 5 possible championships, and I'll at least be able to say I won 3 of my 12 leagues (25%).

Bah.

If Malcolm Floyd and AP just would have told me ahead of time that they planned on being inactive, I would have subbed in Johnny Knox and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. And if I would have replaced Gates with Brent Celek instead of Anthony Fasano (which I almost did), I would have won by 2 points.

Not making excuses. Just saying ... I got robbed. I will forever hate Ray Rice.

Stay tuned for my crappy week 15 picks recap (I went 7-9, but it was a totally insane week, so I'll take it) and my week 16 picks (Lions will win 3 straight!?) as well as the nearly-half-finished NBA top 50. And before I say goodbye, here are 6 random thoughts:

1) Regarding the UConn women's basketball team and their 88 consecutive wins - I just want to ask one question: If they played against the UConn men's basketball team, would the men win by more or less than 88 points? I think less, but only slightly.

2) Regarding Michael Vick saying that he would like to own a dog, I also heard that Osama Bin Laden would like to be a commercial airline pilot for Delta.

3) Regarding the NHL ... just stop it. No one is watching. No one cares.

4) Regarding Cliff Lee to the Phillies and Zach Grienke to the Brewers ... that means 2 of the 3 best pitchers from the AL just went to the NL. This not only helps the Tigers, but it gives Verlander a legit shot at the Cy Young, and also crushes the Yankees. They were banking on Lee. Wonderful news all around.

5) Regarding the Miami Heat's 12 game winning streak ... I told you so.

6) Regarding the 2011 NFL Draft ... I'm really excited for Detroit to take Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi with the 7th overall pick. He's going to replace Backus immediately, and he's going to be really good.

That's it. Peace out.

Week 14 Wrap Up & Week 15 PICKS

Solid week. Went 10-6 against the spread. Which brings me to 112-92-4. I lost track of the Locks and Upsets, but that's for the best because they haven't been pretty. I'm 8-5 on Lions games.

Made the playoffs in both the A League and B League. I play my bro in one league and Otto in the other. Pretty optimistic I'll make the finals in at least one league. Made the playoffs in 5 of my 10 other leagues. One of those teams went 13-1. That roster is virtually unbeatable: Brady, AP, Hillis, Foster, Roddy, Bowe, Branch, Tamme, Steelers D ... with Blount, Forte, Matt Ryan, Austin, and Floyd on the bench. I scored 1,365 points in that league, and finished the regular season on a 10 game winning streak. I'm such a huge dork.

Anyway, here are the Week 14 Wrap Ups, followed by the Week 15 Picks.

Indy 30, Titans 28
Colts missed the cover by 1 point thanks to a Bo Scaife garbage touchdown as time expired. Screw you Jeff Fisher.

Falcons 31, Panthers 10
Atlanta takes one step closer to homefield throughout, and the way that Michael Turner is running nobody's going to beat them.

Bills 13, Browns 6
Cleveland continues to play to the level of their competition. With this win, Buffalo loses their chance at Andrew Luck.

Jags 38, Raiders 31
Those feisty Jaguars. They gave up 30 fantasy points to McFadden and were down 10 in the fourth quarter, but they just keep getting wins.

Steelers 23, Bengals 7
Troy Polamalu proves yet again why he's the best defensive player in the NFL. He might actually be making DMVP a close battle. But Clay Matthews still has the edge.

Bucs 17, Redskins 16
The BBR (Black Ben Roethlisberger) has yet another fourth quarter comeback win. That makes 6 for Josh Freeman in his 2 year career. Amazing. Tampa remains in the playoff hunt.

Saints 31, Rams 13
This game could have been closer, but a Steven Jackson fumble in the first quarter led to a 14-0 hole which the Rams couldn't climb out of. The Saints have quietly won 6 straight.

49ers 40, Seahawks 21
Another NFC West instant classic. These teams are both so bad that they don't deserve my thoughts.

Cardinals 41, Broncos 13
The problem with firing Josh McDaniels was that you lost not only a head coach, but a playcaller too. Kyle Orton's QB rating of 27 tells the whole story. Oh, also, the Cardinals kicker had 5 field goals and a rushing TD.

Patriots 36, Bears 7
Laughable on all accounts. In the Patriots last three snow games, they led by a combined 103-0 at halftime. If there was any doubt about league MVP, there isn't anymore. Brady's got 29 TDs and 4 INTs. Chicago is very lucky that the Packers lost. We'll get to that later.

Dolphins 10, Jets 6
Chad Henne had 5 completions in a winning effort. The Jets are not a good team. Thanks for the memories Rex Ryan. Oh by the way, I'm 99% sure that Rex Ryan is somehow responsible for the assistant coach tripping the Dolphins player, and letting him take the fall for it.

Chargers 31, Chiefs 0
Glad I changed this pick at the last minute! Apparently Brodie Croyle (now 0-9 as a starting QB) isn't going to be getting many big offers this offseason. KC had 67 yards of offense somehow, despite zero turnovers. Also zero third-down conversions.

Eagles 30, Cowboys 27
Both of these teams are really good. This was a great game. Too bad Dallas started the season 1-7 or we could have a playoff rematch. Also, Michael Vick is going to get massively overpaid this spring. I'm thinking Philly gives him 5 years, $95 million, and he barely finishes the second year of his deal before he either falls apart physically or mentally.

Giants 21, Vikings 3
Well, the Favre streak finally ended. Now let's just hope his wretched career will end. The Giants needed this win to keep their playoff hopes alive (since New Orleans has basically clinched a wildcard) and they got it, thanks to an anemic Vikings offense. Seriously Peterson? 1.9 ypc?

Ravens 34, Texans 28
The only team in the NFL to never make a postseason appearance continues its streak with this crushing overtime loss. What's the opposite of clutch? Unclutch? Anticlutch? Well that's Matt Schaub. And don't look now but Haloti Ngata might be in the conversation with Matthews and Polamalu for DMVP.

And that brings us to ...

Lions 7, Packers 3
If you would have told me on Saturday that Detroit would score only 7 points, I would have given them a 0.00000001% chance of winning. But despite just one catch from Calvin Johnson and a 39.4 QB rating from Drew "I Better Update My Resume" Stanton, the Lions pulled out this incredible, stunning victory for one reason, and one reason only: defense.

Okay, maybe a couple reasons. Rodgers's injury definitely helped. Stefan Logan did a great job on kick returns. The Packers helped us out with 3 turnovers, particularly the drop by Jennings which was a surefire TD if he held on. But really, it was all defense.

Green Bay went just 2 for 12 on third downs; their running backs combined for 37 yards on 15 carries; Detroit had 4 sacks (without KVB) and 6 tackles for loss; the Packers were forced to punt 8 times; and best of all, Ndamukong Suh was an unblockable machine despite being double and triple teamed on several occasions.

What a fantastic victory. Detroit hadn't won a divisional game in their last 19 tries. This was huge. Great game for confidence - for the coaches, for the young players, and for the fans. And how awesome is it to potentially deliver the knockout blow to a hated rival. Heck, I don't even hate the Packers as much as the Bears or Vikings, but to win a game which has potential playoff implications is phenomenal!

Go Lions!!!!

Now, for the Week 15 picks ...

49ers (5-8) @ Chargers (7-6)
Predicted Line: SD by 7.5
Actual Line: SD by 9

These teams are both probably the best teams in crappy divisions, and they both desperately need to win. But that's about all they have in common. San Diego is good - possibly Super Bowl good. San Francisco absolutely sucks. They just keep beating doormats. Their five wins are against Denver, Oakland, and the three teams in their division. And without Frank Gore they just don't have an offense. Sorry Alex Smith, you can put up 40 points against Seattle but you aren't fooling anybody. You stink.

This has blowout written all over it. Chargers in a must-win December game against a crappy team? Come on. I'll take those 9 points gladly.

Cleveland (5-8) @ Cincinnati (2-11)
Predicted Line: CLE by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 1.5

It took fourteen weeks, but Terrell Owens finally did his thing. Quote:

"You start with the owner, you start with the coaches. As players, we are a product of what the coaches are coaching us throughout the course of the week. Of course, we've got to go out there and play the game. But in order for us to do what we're allowed to do to the best of our abilities, the coaches have to put the players in the best position."

Everything he said is completely true. Marvin Lewis has been deplorable and should have been fired by now. But come on. Couldn't he just keep his mouth shut like the other 52 guys on the team?

I'm officially giving up on the Bengals. They won't be able to stop Peyton Hillis, and Colt McCoy will be back. The Browns are still playing for pride. I'll take them to win pretty convincingly.

Redskins (5-8) @ Cowboys (5-8)
Predicted Line: DAL by 8
Actual Line: DAL by 6

Mike Shanahan is being really weird about his quarterback situation. Really weird, and incredibly stupid. He's contemplating benching Donovan McNabb, not for some young hotshot with a chance to prove himself, but for Turnover Machine Rex Grossman, a proven loser. This just weeks after extending McNabb's contract for 5 years and $78 million. It's been the weirdest not-talked-about story of the season. Paying a guy Pro Bowl money in the midst of his worst season in a decade, and then threatening to bench him. My only explanation is that the Redskins plan to cut ties altogether with McNabb by the end of 2010, and the contract ploy was a means of saving money. If McNabb is removed from the roster by the end of the season, it will save the Skins $10 million on his contract. Very strange and possibly scandalous.

As for the pick, it depends slightly on the QB status. If McNabb plays, Dallas will win by 7 or 10. If Grossman plays, Dallas will win by at least 20. Either way, I like Dallas.

This just in - Grossman will start. I'm not only taking the Cowboys, but I'm gleefully making it the Lock of the Week.

Texans (5-8) @ Titans (5-8)
Predicted Line: TEN by 1
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5

Both teams are coming off emotional losses that eliminated them from playoff contention. What is there to play for?

Well, for one thing, both coaches are playing to keep their jobs. For another, Arian Foster is playing to win the Rushing title.

Matt Schaub is trying to keep a starting job in the NFL. Kerry Collins is trying to keep a job, period. Chris Johnson is playing for revenge, because in his last game against Houston he rushed for like 7 total yards. Randy Moss is playing solely for the paycheck.

So ... in the meaningless battle for individual accolades and retaining employment, I guess I'll side with the team that doesn't have Randy Moss. Titans are 0-5 since picking him up.

Jags (8-5) @ Colts (7-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 5

Colts win, but Jags keep it close. I hate this line. I'll say Colts win by 4. So I'll take Jacksonville ATS.

Chiefs (8-5) @ Rams (6-7)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: KC by 1 (Cassel expected to play)

If Cassel plays I'm guessing the line is somewhere close to KC by 2. If Croyle starts, I'm guessing STL by 3. I'm just going to guess the game straight up, and my hunch is Cassel plays. KC can't feel good about their playoff chances with Brodie Croyle and his 0-9 career record as a starter.

If Cassel does play, I'll take the Chiefs. They should be able to run on the Rams and control the clock. Jamaal Charles won't have much trouble against the Rams defense.

But if Croyle plays, the Rams will put 11 men in the box and destroy the Chiefs offense just like the Chargers did. Actually, I'm changing the pick to Rams either way. If Cassel does play he probably won't be near 100%. Bah I don't know! I'll just stick with the Rams.

Bills (3-10) @ Dolphins (7-6)
Predicted Line: MIA by 6.5
Actual Line: MIA by 5.5

If the Jets continue to collapse and lose their remaining three games (very possible), Miami figures to be in a battle with Jacksonville for the remaining Wildcard spot that doesn't go to Baltimore. Assuming Indy wins on Sunday and the Dolphins win this game, both teams will be 8-6, and the Jets will be 9-5 after they lose to Pittsburgh. So all that to say, Miami has a half-decent chance to get blown out by San Diego in the first round.

For this game, I want to take the points because Buffalo is frisky and Miami's head coach is 0-7 lifetime at covering a spread of 4 points or more. I also want to take Buffalo because of how terrible Chad Henne has played lately. But, I'm going against my instincts and taking Miami in what I think will be a low-scoring, 13-20 game.

Lions (3-10) @ Bucs (8-5)
Predicted Line: TB by 8
Actual Line: TB by 6

This line was tough to guess. On one hand the Lions just beat the Packers and held them to 3 points; on the other hand, Drew Stanton. Six points might be a little low on the road.

One of the great tragedies of this season will be Tampa Bay missing the playoffs at 9-7 while St. Louis makes the playoffs at 7-9. I want to say the rules should be changed, but what are we going to do, keep a division winner from making the playoffs? Can't do that. We just have to live with a crappy system.

For this game, I'm actually taking the Lions to cover the spread, and I think they might win outright for their first road victory in 78 years. People don't realize how injury-plagued Tampa is. Their best defensive player, Aqib Talib, is on IR as of 3 weeks ago. They also lost stud safety Tanard Jackson to a drug-related suspension and rookie safety Cody Grimm to a season-ending knee injury. They put linebacker Quincy Black (one of their leading tacklers) on IR earlier this week, and #3 overall pick Gerald McCoy is likely to miss this game with a bicep injury. In short, Tampa's defense is in shambles, and even a hooligan like Drew Stanton might rush for 40 yards and throw 20 completions. This is a good week to own Calvin Johnson in fantasy football, and a bad week to be playing against him in the playoffs. Unfortunately, I am the latter.

Tampa's defense ranks 11th against the pass, and 27th against the run. But given the injuries, especially to a shutdown corner in Talib, you have to view them as perhaps the worst overall defense in the NFL. Their secondary is just as inept as the Lions, and they don't have a pass rusher with more than 5 sacks all year. (The Lions have 3). In fact, Tampa has the fewest overall sacks in the NFC, and ranks third-worst in the NFL in terms of YPC defense. They give up an average of 4.7 yards per rush. It's time for Jahvid Best to earn his paycheck.

On the other side of the ball, it's just as ugly. Detroit's defense looked fabulous against Matt Flynn, but Josh Freeman is efficient and knows how to move the chains. Tampa's third-down conversion rate is 42.1%, 7th best in the NFL and only trailing teams with QBs named Manning, Rivers, Brees, Brady, Ryan and Schaub. To slow down the Tampa offense, it's got to start up front in containment against LeGarrette Blount.

The Tampa offensive line isn't good, and will have to double-team Suh to keep him out of the backfield. As usual, that will allow Avril and McBride and Williams to be a little more aggressive, and should allow for some effective blitz packages. The Lions have the 22nd ranked rush defense, but I feel like it's better now than it was early in the season, especially with DeAndre Levy back at MLB. I actually think Blount will struggle to gain consistent yards on 1st and 2nd down. Of course, I wouldn't bench him in fantasy football, because he'll likely score on a 60 yard play.

The absolute key to this game will be Tampa's vertical offense. How can the Detroit secondary respond to third-and-longs, and how can the Detroit pass rush fare without KVB? I expect Josh Freeman to attempt upwards of 40 passes (he averages about 29 per game), with plenty of downfield strikes to Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn. It's up to the Detroit secondary to avoid big plays. If they can survive this game without giving up a 50+ yard score, they'll win.

Despite the gloomy 3-10 record, I really, REALLY want Detroit to win this game. Tampa isn't as talented as their 8-5 record suggests, but they embody what Detroit wants to be: an under-talented team which plays smart and focused and wins close games. Beating Tampa, and essentially knocking them out of the playoff race, would be a big step for our franchise. It would mean back-to-back wins against teams hoping to make the playoffs, and twice as many wins as last year. Our remaining games are Miami and Minnesota, so 6-10 is still within reach.

Forget the draft. With the win last week Detroit lost its chances for Patrick Peterson, unless Cincy and Denver magically win a couple games. PP is not sliding past the #2 pick. After Peterson the draft is a total crapshoot, and I'd prefer to win as many games as possible this year so we get the latest possible pick, so we're not on the hook for another godawful contract. The one good aspect of preposterous rookie contracts is that it motivates bad teams to win late in the season.

I think the spread for this game makes sense, but I also think Detroit has at least a 40% chance of winning. Josh Freeman is a comeback fiend, but doesn't have any prior experience blowing teams out. I'm expecting a high-scoring game (maybe 35-38) and ultimately another Freeman comeback. But I will take Detroit and the points.

Random crazy prediction: Drew Stanton has 22 fantasy points. 23-43, 225 yards, 2 TDs, 35 rushing yards, 1 INT.

Cardinals (4-9) @ Panthers (1-12)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 1
Actual Line: CAR by 2

Pretty sure these are the two worst teams in the NFL. Yippee. Brace yourselves for stunning analysis.

In terms of defense, these teams rank 29th and 26th in points allowed; offensively, they rank 32nd and 27th in points scored. Carolina might have the worst offense ever assembled, but they've figured out how to run the ball lately and the Cards give up 143 rushing yards per game. John Skelton had a 52.3 QB rating and 40.5% completion percentage last week for Arizona in his first start, but played effectively as a game manager while Tim Hightower ran like crazy. He's probably better than Anderson or Max Hall. But will he seriously begin his career 2-0? And if Carolina loses this game, they are guaranteed to finish 1-15 with remaining road games against the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the NFL. So what's more likely - Skelton starting 2-0 or Carolina finishing 1-15? (I picked them to go 5-11 back in June).

I really don't know. Carolina is awful. Skelton stinks, but he's probably better than Claussen. I think both teams will run the ball well, but probably just kick a few field goals. It should be something like 10-6 at halftime and thus the final score will be close. And since Arizona is getting two points, I guess I'll take them.

Saints (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)
Predicted Line: BAL by 1.5
Actual Line: BAL by 1.5

I was about to proclaim this a Super Bowl Preview when I realized I was just getting overly excited because - This is the first game yet where both teams are actually good! Geez oh pete.

I'm playing against Drew Brees AND Ray Rice in the fantasy playoffs in this game, and I'm pretty happy with how the matchups align. Either guy could explode, but I kind of see this as a low-key, feel-each-other-out, field-position kind of 20-17 game. The line essentially means nothing so it's a straight up pick, and it's tough not to pick against the Saints. Brees is on fire.

But wouldn't it be appropriate for the Madden Curse to strike now, late in the season, with playoff hopes on the line, when nobody expects it? It makes me a little queasy to pick New Orleans. Baltimore's a very good team at home (17-5 the last three years). I'm waffling. I can't decide. My gut says New Orleans.

Eagles (9-4) @ Giants (9-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 1
Actual Line: NYG by 3

Shocking line. People LOVE to bet on Michael Vick. Before I even check the Vegas page I'll guess that 85% of the betting action is on the Eagles. And ... nope, it's only 68%. But still. This line should be Giants by 1. I thought it would skew in the other direction. No disrespect to the Giants, I just thought Vick-mania was a little more prominent.

However, Vick hasn't faced this good of a denfese since ... well, since the last time he played the Giants. Philly won that game 27-17 in Philly, but the Giants had 5 turnovers in that game, which won't happen again. Justin Tuck sacked Vick three times. Vick simply can't run around like crazy against this athletic front 4.

But no matter how good the defense is, you can't keep Philly from scoring; you need at least three touchdowns to beat them. Fortunately, (I say fortunately because I root against the Eagles almost as strenuously as I root against the Steelers and Jets - I detest Michael Vick) the Eagles have enough injuries on defense that New York should be able to pass the ball easily. Asante Samuel is back, but he's incredibly overrated. Linebacker Stewart Bradley and DE Brandon Graham are out, as is CB Ellis Hobbs. A big matchup is DE Trent Cole against LT David Diehl. Those are two borderline Pro Bowlers who get almost no recognition. I expect Chris Snee to lead the Giants rushing attack to a pretty great game and try to keep Vick on the sideline. 75 yards apiece for Jacobs and Bradshaw. If they can move the chains and avoid fumbles, New York has a chance.

However, come on. The better team is getting 3 points here. I've got to pick Philadelphia. Did I mention that both teams are 9-4 and the winning team is assured a playoff birth, while the loser likely gets a wildcard, but maybe gets nothing. You think they'll be fired up?

Here's how the NFC Playoffs shake out:

Atlanta (11-2) and New Orleans (10-3) are IN. They play each other next week at the Georgia Dome. The winner of that game is likely the #1 seed, and the loser is the top Wildcard team.

Somebody from the NFC West will win the division at either 7-9 or 8-8, and then get demolished. It could be Seattle, San Fran or St. Louis. It doesn't matter, but it'll probably be St. Louis.

That leaves three spots for five contenders: Philly, Chicago, New York, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay. The first three are 9-4 and the Packers and Bucs are 8-5. Aaron Rodgers injury is huge. Spend a little time on this site and you'll see how intricate those 3 spots become. New York plays Philly this week; the Giants play the Packers next week; and then Tampa plays New Orleans while Chicago plays Green Bay week 17.

So, if Atlanta loses this week to Seattle (not likely) and then loses to New Orleans next week (50-50) while the Saints beat Baltimore this week, and meanwhile Tampa takes care of Detroit and Seattle in two home games, that sets up 12-3 Saints against 10-5 Tampa, while the 11-4 Falcons would have no shot at the #1 seed, thus New Orleans could rest its starters, which might allow Tampa to win its final game, which would make them 11-5 and probably mean both wildcard positions come from the NFC South.

But if Atlanta beats Seattle this week (which they should, however Seattle needs the win to keep their playoff hopes alive), they'll have a game lead over New Orleans heading into next week's showdown, and that's assuming the Saints beat the Ravens, which they might not. Either way, and regarless of the outcome of ATL-NO week 16, the Saints will have a reason to play week 17, which means Tampa will have to fight for its life at the Superdome.

All that to say, Tampa not only needs to beat Detroit and Seattle in home games (which they should, but remember all their injuries and lack of talent in the first place), but they also need to hope New Orleans wins their next two while Atlanta loses their next two, because then a rest-the-starters situation helps Tampa claim a wildcard spot at 11-5, UNLESS Green Bay wins out without Rodgers (highly unlikey, as they play New England, Chicago, and the Giants) or UNLESS the loser of the PHI-NYG game wins their next two games AND the winner of PHI-NYG wins at least one of its two next games, which is unlikely because the Giants play the Packers and Redskins and the Eagles play Dallas and Minnesota. Plus, with @Minnesota, @Green Bay, and vs. NY Jets remaining on the schedule, there's no guarantee that Chicago wins any of its remaining games, so they might wind up 9-7 or 10-6, which would also help Tampa's chances if Green Bay surprisingly wins out and goes 11-5, because Tampa would then take the Wildcard instead of Chicago, unless the PHI-NYG loser wins out, which as I said, is unlikely.

Make sense?

The small version: don't count Tampa out.

The bigger version: Detroit has extra motivation to beat Tampa this week, at least in my mind.

Having said all that, here are my predictions:

Week 15 - Eagles over Giants, Vikings over Bears, Saints over Ravens, Tampa over Detroit, Atlanta over Seattle, Patriots over Packers.

Week 16 - Jets over Bears, Saints over Falcons, Eagles over Vikings, Tampa over Seattle, Packers over Giants.

Week 17 - Saints over Bucs, Packers over Bears, Giants over Redskins, Atlanta over Carolina, Philly over Dallas.

If that all happens according to plan, the NFC Playoffs look like this:

Byes: Falcons & Eagles
First Round:
#6 Giants @ #3 Packers
#5 Saints @ #4 Winner of NFC West

So we'd have a 13-3 team on the road in the first round of the playoffs. That's brilliant.

You may have noticed that Chicago is omitted from my playoff projection. That's because I think they'll lose out. Loses to the Steelers and Jets sets up a week 17 game at Lambeau - winner gets the #3 seed. Unless Green Bay loses to the Giants week 16, in which case Green Bay is out almost for sure, unless they somehow beat New England this week. If they do that, they're basically in.

Here's another crazy scenario - even if New Orleans beats Baltimore on the road this week, they could still potentially MISS the playoffs at 11-5, while two teams with inferior records sneak in. That would happen if they lost back-to-back divisional games to Atlanta and Tampa, unless they got some help from the Redskins beating the Giants week 17, or Dallas beating Philly, both of which are unlikely, since those teams won't be trying. It's obviously unlikely for New Orleans to lose weeks 16 and 17, but remember, Madden Curse is still waiting to strike like a poisonous viper.

Here's one more scenario for you - if the Giants beat Philly, then Philly would NEED to win its next two games (Vikings & Cowboys) to avoid missing the playoffs, and even if they won out they still would miss the playoffs if Tampa also wins out, which could happen, especially because of the Saints-rest-the-starters possiblity.

Okay, that's enough of that. Moving on ...

Falcons (11-2) @ Seahawks (6-7)
Predicted Line: ATL by 7
Actual Line: ATL by 6

In their last five games against teams not quarterbacked by Jimmy Claussen, Max Hall or Derek "Okay, That's Fine" Anderson, the Seahawks have lost by scores of 30, 34, 15, 18, and 19.

I think this line's too low. I'll take Atlanta.

Jets (9-4) @ Steelers (10-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 5.5
Actual Line: PIT by 6

Bad timing for the Jets, who need to get their offense back on track. Not going to happen against a historically-good defense with 4 linebackers who should all be in the Pro Bowl and a strong safety who is making an argument as the best overall player in the NFL.

That said, this line is a little high. Pittsburgh's offense shouldn't be trusted to score against any defense that doesn't completely suck. The Jets have the #2 ranked rush defense and they'll have Revis covering Mike Wallace. Looks like a typical Steelers 17-13 win to me. I'll take the points and the Jets. Uggh .

*EDIT* Polamalu will miss this game. I feel better about my Jets pick. I'll actually make it the Upset of the Week.

Broncos (3-10) @ Raiders (6-7)
Predicted Line: OAK by 7
Actual Line: OAK by 7

Believe it or not, Oakland is not out of playoff contention. Even with San Diego winning on Thursday night.

All Oakland needs is:
-To win their remaining games.
-At least one loss from each San Diego and KC in the next two weeks. If KC beats the Rams but then loses to the Titans, or vice versa, they would finish 9-7 if Oakland beats them week 17. And if San Diego loses to either Cincinnati or Denver, they'll finish 9-7 too. If Oakland wins its remaining games, there will be a three-way tie at 9-7, and Oakland would win the tie-breaker for head-to-head record.

So basically, Oakland not only needs to beat Denver, but needs to travel to Indianapolis next week and beat Peyton Manning in his own building. If they do that, assuming they get a little bit of help, they'll control their own destiny in a week 17 matchup at Arrowhead.

Of course, the most likely scenario is that San Diego wins its remaining two games and finishes 10-6, which means they win the division. UNLESS Kansas City wins its remaining three games and goes 11-5, and in that case San Diego might take a Wildcard instead of the Jets. This would happen if the Jets lose at least two of their next three games (@Pittsburgh, @Chicago, so it might happen), and if the Bolts and Jets tie at 10-6, San Diego wins the tiebreaker for strength of schedule. Yet another wonderful scenario in which Rex Ryan misses the playoffs.

All that to say ... I don't love Oakland's chances, but they aren't elminated yet, and as a result they should play their asses off in this game against a depleted, deflated, demoralized Denver team with an interim coach who is in over his head, a nonexistent offensive coordinator, and a first-round rookie QB who isn't allowed to play, but even if he does play he'll be terrible.

Last time these teams met, Oakland won 59-14 behind 190 yards and 4 TDs for Darren McFadden. That game was in Denver. Now they're in Oakland. I can't believe I'm putting my faith in the Raiders to cover a 7 point spread, but it's more a reflection of my distrust in Denver. They can't stop the run, they can't rush the passer, they can't do anything defensively. And offensively, Kyle Orton seems to be falling apart at the exact moment that the Raiders defense is playing great. Nnamdi Asomugha will eliminate Lloyd from the game, and force injured Kyle Orton to spread the ball around elsewhere.

I'm anticipating another great fantasy day from Knowshon Moreno, who I wish I wouldn't have traded, but ultimately I don't think Denver's offense can keep up. Oakland wins 30-17.

*EDIT* Orton is out; Tebow will start. Still taking Oakland.

Packers (8-5) @ Patriots (11-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: No Line (Rodgers)

Geez, this is one of the toughest games to call of the season. I have no idea whether or not Rodgers will play, and thus no idea what the line will be. It seems as if he'll be a gametime decision, but when concussions are involved there are NFL-mandated rules. So even if Green Bay wants to play Rodgers - which they will, because this game is basically a must-win - he might not be allowed to play. If Matt Flynn starts, forget about it. Patriots by 50.

But I, for one, think Rodgers will play, or at least will attempt to play. I don't think Green Bay can afford to start Flynn in Foxboro knowing their playoff hopes are on the line. And I'm going to pick this game assuming Rodgers plays, which means the line should be NE by 8.5 or something in that area. And believe it or not, I kind of want to pick the Packers.

Not because Tom Brady isn't amazing or because the Patriots aren't playing like Champs. I realize Brady has won like 25 straight games at home and is lifetime 93-61 against the spread, but not all of those wins are blowouts. Green Bay's defense might present problems for the Patriots O-line, and we might see the 2009 Patriots who kicked field goals instead of scoring 7 on every drive. If that's the case, Green Bay might keep this game close in the fourth quarter, and for that reason I'm temporarily picking the Packers.

However, I will be monitoring this game, and if Rodgers is inactive I'll be changing the pick immediately, even if the line jumps up to Patriots by 35.

*EDIT* Rodgers is doubtful; I'm taking the Pats.

Bears (9-4) @ Vikings (5-9) - Monday night
Predicted Line: CHI by 2
Actual Line: No Line (Favre, AP)

These no line games are annoying. Nobody has any idea if Favre will play, or if AP will play (he probably will), so there is no line. But I'll keep the line at Chicago by 2.

This game isn't in the Metrodome, but outdoors at the U of Minnesota, which means the temperature drops from 65 degrees to 5 degrees. That benefits the Vikings, who have a better running game and aren't stupid like Mike Martz.

However, since Favre missed last week and the streak ended, it's presumable that he'll sit this game out as well. Tarvaris Jackson has been placed on IR. Which means either converted WR Joe Webb will start at quarterback, or newly-signed Patrick Ramsey, who I just assumed was 38 years old, but he's really only 31. Joe Webb is reportedly suffering from a hamstring issue, and since his primary strength as a QB is escapability, I assume that Ramsey will start.

And you know, that might not be a horrible thing. He hasn't actually played a significant game in 4 years, but he couldn't be much worse than Favre, and at least he has something to prove. If nothing else, Ramsey's presence will encourage the coaching staff to run the ball with AP 30+ times, which is a recipe for winning.

However, the Bears are third-best in the NFL at stopping the run, despite giving up 230 rushing yards in the last two weeks. AP might not break many big plays, especially in the snow, and if Ramsey has to convert third-downs, Chicago will eat him alive. Julius Peppers might bring his karate chop and shatter Ramsey's arm, forcing the Vikings to play Webb, which turns them into a video-game offense and takes AP out of a normal rhythm.

Assuming Ramsey does play, or even if Favre plays, I'll probably take the Bears +2. All year they've been able to beat crummy teams, and they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulders after being blown out by New England. Plus, they know they have to win this game, because if they lose it sets up must-win games against the Jets and Packers, and they don't want to be in that situation.

So even though I wrote earlir that the Vikings would beat the Bears, I'm picking the Bears here, because it looks more and more likely that Favre's career is over, and Patrick Ramsey doesn't inspire much confidence, even against Jay Cutler.

That's all I got.
Go Lions.

And stay tuned for the top 50 players in the NBA - 2010 edition.
It's a work in progress.

A Few Quick Thoughts

Don't have much time to write all this; so here's some brief thoughts from the world of sports.

1) Kyle VandenBosch was put on IR yesterday. He's the Lions 3rd best player. This sucks.

2) Suh was fined $15,000 for a perfectly legal tackle. My respect for Roger Goddell drops from a 98 to a 52 with this complete bullcrap. Un-Bee-Leave-A-Bull. Worst Fine I've ever seen.

3) Everyone is obsessed with saying "What is wrong with the Miami Heat?" because they started the year 9-8 and had a 3 game losing streak. Since then, they've won 6 straight. They just needed some time to get used to each other. Calm down everybody, it's not like they'll miss the playoffs. Worst case, they get the 3 seed. More likely they get the 2 seed. And they won't be easy to beat in a 7 game series. They're still the favorites no matter what their record is.

4) Everyone is obsessed with saying "What is wrong with Peyton Manning?" because he's thrown 11 INTs in his last 3 games. This might be more valid than the Miami thing, but it's still overblown. He really misses Dallas Clark and Austin Collie and has zero running game to lean on. It's not his fault. A lot of those picks were because of drops, tips, or pointless hailmarys. Don't overreact; he'll still be a force to be reckoned with and he'll still be in the playoffs.

5) I hope Favre's career is done, but I doubt it. That consecutive starts streak means more to him than his own health. What a freaking moron.

6) Shutup Derek Jeter. It must be so terrible to be paid $60 million to be a below-average shortshop. You had the 8th best batting average on your own team, and yet you're being paid more than $1 million per month. How awful.

7) Hate to break it to you, but Cliff Lee is 100% going to the Yankees. Why is this even considered a topic of debate?

8) A lot of interesting things happened last week in the NFL:
A) Tom Brady secured the MVP
B) Sam Bradford secured ROY
C) The following teams' slim playoff hopes were crushed: Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Washington.
D) I went 9-7 against the spread, bringing me to 102-86-4 this year. I only really whiffed on 3 picks (IND-Dal, GB-SF, NYG-WAS). Atlanta only covered by 1; Carolina blew a 14 point lead; Tennessee apparently gave up on the season; and Chad Henne played his worst professional game. If I could have foreseen those strange occureneces, I might have been 13-3 ATS. Oh well.

9) My fantasy basketball team is doing well thanks to Kevin Love's nightly 20-20s and Blake Griffin's 30-15s. I'm dominating rebounds, despite wasting a draft pick on Chris Bosh. My biggest letdown has been #2 overall pick (NBA Draft pick, not fantasy pick) Evan Turner; he rarely scores more than 5 points. I'm dropping him today.

10) I essentially have a bye week in fantasy, after clinching the playoffs last week behind AP and Wayne's big games. Playoffs start next week. This week I'm resting my starters. I just hope I can convince their head coaches to do the same.

11) In the B League, I'll be in the playoffs if I win this week against Alaska. It's do-or-die. I'm glad my team is much better than his. Feeling good about my chances.

12) On to week 14's picks...

Indy (6-6) @ Tennessee (5-7) on THURSDAY
Predicted Line: IND by 2
Actual Line: IND by 3

In the last 5 weeks, these teams are a combined 1-9. The one win came against Cincinnati. Yikes.
Somebody's gotta win though, and I should probably take Peyton Manning over Kerry Collins. Random prediction: Randy Moss scores 2 TDs.

Browns (5-7) @ Bills (2-10)
Predicted Line: CLE by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 1

I can't figure this line out ... Cleveland is clearly the better team.

Last week was a major Coming Back Down To Earth week for Ryan Fitzpatrick (also for Kyle Orton, Dwayne Bowe, Rex Ryan, and Peyton Hillis) so hopefully the chatter about Buffalo keeping Fitz and not drafting a quarterback will stop. They CLEARLY need a quarterback; now the only issue is: will they get first dibs, or will Cincinnati? The 2011 Draft is shaping up to be interesting. Will Carolina keep Claussen or draft Luck #1? Will the Lions keep losing and take the best player in the draft, CB Patrick Peterson from LSU, with the #2 pick? Where will stud receiver AJ Green go? What about Mallet, Locker, Newton, and the other QBs? Will Minnesota and Washington take QBs? Will Oakland draft Usain Bolt? If the Lions don't get Peterson, will they address the secondary or the offensive line?

For this game, I'll take Cleveland. Peyton Hillis is still working on a Fantasy MVP season, and he won't stop now against the league's worst rushing defense.

Tampa Bay (7-5) @ Washington (5-7)
Predicted Line: WAS by 1.5
Actual Line: TB by 2.5

Hmm... five thoughts.

1) McNabb stinks. This is the worst season of his career, period. Since the secret's out with Carson Palmer, I guess I'll have to call Donovan 'The Secretly Terrible Donovan McNabb.' Will someone accuse me of being a racist if I do that?

2) Albert Haynesworth is a fat lazy piece of crap. But Mike Shanahan has also proven to be a terrible coach in this mess. What an ugly situation.

3) Washington can't stop the run and appears to be quitting on their coach (that's the new trend this year)

4) Tampa might be deflated after a crushing loss to Atlanta last week. They might come out flat.

5) Amazingly, Tampa has the better player at QB, RB, and WR in this matchup.

But I have no idea what to do, so I'm siding with the Home Dog.

Atlanta (10-2) @ Carolina (1-11)
Predicted Line: ATL by 12.5
Actual Line: ATL by 7.5

Whoa. I missed that line by 5 points. That doesn't happen too often. Guess I should take Atlanta and not overthink.

Oakland (6-6) @ Jacksonville (7-5)
Predicted Line: JAC by 4.5
Actual Line: JAC by 3

Both of these teams have a reasonable shot at winning their crap divisions, so this game is important. Too bad both teams stink. I'm taking Jags at home.

Packers (8-4) @ Lions (2-10)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 6.5

This line is a little high, don't you think? Considering Detroit has been able to keep games close and entertaining all season ... and considering we led New England and Chicago at halftime in consecutive weeks. I know Drew Stanton will continue to play like a video game (take the snap, immediately start running backwards, scramble aimlessly for 15 seconds, then throw) and I know KVB's injury really sucks, but Green Bay has some weaknesses of their own: they can't run the ball, they don't pass-protect very well, and the defense gives up some big plays. Calvin should have another score, Suh should wreak some havoc, and I like our chances to keep this game close. Ish. Maybe a 24-30 "thriller" although the outcome will never be in doubt. I'll take Detroit at home.

Giants (8-4) @ Vikings (5-7)
Predicted Line: who knows. Is Favre playing? I'll say NYG by 2
Actual Line: NYG by 2.5

I dunno ... I'll take the Vikings in the Upset of the Week. Who cares. All these picks stink today. Never mind, I'll take the Giants. I keep forgetting how much Favre sucks.

Cincinnati (2-10) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 10.5
Actual Line: PIT by 8.5

The Bengals should be giving this game everything they have ... I'll take Cincy to cover, I guess. That's a big line for an offensive line with 4 injured starters.

Rams (6-6) @ Saints (9-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 6
Actual Line: NO by 9.5

Sheesh, that's the fourth line I've missed by more than 3 points. Some strange games this week. Either that or I'm just not focused. It has been a busy week - woke up at 4am yesterday and 4:30 today. Crazy stuff. By the way, Jack turned 1 on Tuesday. My son is one. How weird and simultaneously awesome.

I'm taking the Rams in this game. That line is way too high. Sam Bradford will likely never be a 9 point underdog again in his career. The Saints don't usually cover high spreads. This is all Rams. In fact, I'm making this the Upset of the Week. I think they might win outright.

Seahawks (6-6) @ 49ers (4-8)
Predicted Line: SF by 5
Actual Line: SF by 5.5

That's an awfully high line for a team that stinks, especially with Gore out for the year and yet another QB switch. They're going back to Alex Smith. He stinks, but should do okay against Seattle's horrible defense. I think San Fran wins this game. But I'm taking Seattle to cover. 6 points is too many.

Dolphins (6-6) @ Jets (9-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 7
Actual Line: NYJ by 5.5

Hmmm... let's see. Chad Henne stinks. Mark Sanchez stinks. Both teams can run the ball. Sounds like a fabulous, exciting game. I'm taking Miami to cover because that's simply too many points for the Jets offense to be giving.

Denver (3-9) @ Arizona (3-9)
Predicted Line: Pick em
Actual Line: DEN by 5.5

WHOA. Arizona is a homedog by almost 6 points? To Denver, who just fired their coach!?

I blame the Interim Coach Phenomenon. Since 1980 interim head coaches are something like 256-3 in their first game. Garrett and Frazier are two examples from this year. Everyone will expect Denver's interim coach Eric Studesville to follow suit. But unlike Dallas and Minnesota, Denver doesn't have a team loaded with talent. Josh McDaniels made sure to drive all the talent out of town and instead draft Tim Tebow.

So forget the Interim thing. I'm taking Arizona because even though they're the worst team in the NFL, they should NOT be 6 point underdogs at home against a terrible team. I would make this the Lock of the Week, but I don't exactly trust the legendary John Skelton as he makes his first start. But there's no way he could be worse than Derek Anderson, right?

Chiefs (8-4) @ Chargers (6-6)
Predicted Line: SD by 3
Actual Line: SD by 6.5

This is the biggest game of the year for both teams. Chargers will win and avenge their loss to KC way back in week 1, but I think 6 points is too high. Chiefs lose in OT, 27-30.

*EDIT* Brodie Croyle is starting, instead of Matt Cassel. I'm gonna switch the pick to San Diego.**

Patriots (10-2) @ Bears (9-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 4
Actual Line: NE by 3

If I made the lines, this would be New England by 10. And I'd pick New England.

Eagles (8-4) @ Cowboys (4-8)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Line: PHI by 3.5

Throw out the records. Dallas is 3-1 since firing Wade and should be 4-0. They are a team that would have gone 12-4 with a competent coach. I'm done dissing Dallas.

But now they run into Michael Vick. Last week they had Peyton Manning. The week before they had Drew Brees. Come on, that's not even fair. I'm taking Dallas to win outright. Call me crazy.

Baltimore (8-4) @ Houston (5-7)
Predicted Line: BAL by 4
Actual Line: BAL by 3

Houston wins a Monday night shocker. Sure, why not.

Just so you know, I have zero confidence in my picks this week. Expecting to go 6-10 or worse. Bah. Go Lions, and go democracy!!

week 13 Picks

Texans (5-6) @ Eagles (7-4) on Thursday
Predicted Line: PHI by 8.5
Actual Line: PHI by 8.5

Off to a good start. Hit the line exactly. Now... just have to figure out what to do with this mysterious Texans team ...

Their disgustingly bad secondary now faces Michael Vick, thus the 9 point spread. But some people will look at Houston's 20-0 win over Tennessee last week and ask, Is the defense getting better? Or did they just enjoy a good game against Rusty Smith? In my opinion, it's probably the latter. Don't expect any less than 4 TDs from Vick. He's the #1 QB option in fantasy football this week - especially given that the Texans D must travel across the country on 4 days rest.

But at first blush, I think this line might be too high. Philly's defense looked worthless last week against Chicago, and will likely be without Asante Samuel for another game. That means no one can match up with Andre Johnson, who was fined $25,000 but not suspended for his fight with Cortland Finnegan. Johnson is a BAD dude, and I mean that in a good way. He is not only the game's best wide receiver, but a pretty scary dude to fight against. Finnegan went from trash-talking instigator to pants-peeing-guy-getting-the-crap-beat-out-of-him in about 2 seconds. I loved it. Good call by the league not giving out suspensions. If you're not going to suspend Richard Seymour for sucker-punching a quarterback, don't suspend these guys for a 5 second fight in the heat of the game.

So I think Johnson will play well, and I'm certain that Arian Foster will be able to run on the Eagles. Houston should be able to score 24 or 27, especially if the Eagles move into a prevent defense late with a big lead and Houston gets a backdoor TD. But I see Philly scoring close to 40. I'll take Philly by a hair.

Saints (8-3) @ Bengals (2-9)
Predicted Line: NO by 7
Actual Line: NO by 6.5

90% of Vegas is betting on the Saints in this game. Really? To cover a 7 point spread on the road after almost losing to the Cowboys last week? I know Drew Brees is on fire right now, and I know Cincy is playing without stud CB Jonathan Joseph, but all season long we've seen Carson and TO cover backdoor spreads with garbage-time TDs. Why would it stop now, in a home game, when Carson is basically playing to keep his job? I think the Saints eek out an ugly 27-23 win. Anytime 90% of betting action is on a road-favorite I am leery. Go Bengals.

Bears (8-3*) @ Lions (2-9)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 3.5

I'm guessing this line was set prior to the news that Shaun Hill's broken finger might (and by might, I mean definitely will, but Jim Schwartz is doing that thing he always does where he tries to keep opposing teams wondering which crappy quarterback will start, as if they care) keep him out for the remainder of the season. Which means, yes, five games of Drew Stanton starting.

Five. Games. Of. Drew. Stanton. Starting.

But don't worry Lions' fans, yesterday we claimed 7th round rookie Zac Robinson off waivers and he will serve as the backup for the rest of the season. All in favor of calling him Z-Rob? None opposed? Okay, motion carried.

A quick Wikipedia search informs me that Z-Rob played his collegiate ball at Oklahoma State, where he threw passes to none other than Dez Bryant, and Brandon Pettigrew the year before! Z-Rob was a dual threat in college, running for more than 800 yards his sophomore season while passing for 2,800 yards. He set a school record for total yardage that season, and only one other college QB had 800 rushing yards and 2,800 passing yards. That was of course Heisman winner Tim Tebow.

Z-Rob was highly touted going into his 2009 senior season, but Dez Bryant's suspension killed the OSU season. Then Z-Rob got riddled with injuries. First a concussion, then a shoulder, then a hamstring. He ended up being drafted in the 7th round by New England (hey, if Bill Belichick was impressed, that's all I need to know) but then was cut from the 53 man roster. Seattle picked up Z-Rob, left him on the practice squad for 2 months, and then let him go. Now, he's the Lions backup quarterback. And unless you think Stanton can stay healthy for 5 games, we'll almost certainly see Z-Rob take the field before week 17. Somewhere Calvin Johnson is weeping in a dark closet.

So this line is currently at just 3.5, but by Sunday I expect it to rise to 6 or so. No one respects Drew Stanton, and rightfully so. He was an adequate college player, but doesn't have an NFL arm. But dangit, I'm writing this pick now, so I'll make the pick against the 3.5 line.

Remember, last time we played Chicago, we beat them on a last-second TD pass to Calvin Johnson. Thus the asterisk next to Chicago's 8-3 record. They know they're 7-4, and Detroit knows they're 3-8. The problem in that game for Detroit was an inability to slow down Matt Forte, especially on that one horrendous 80 yard screen pass. The other problem was Jeff Backus trying to block Julius Peppers by himself, which led to Matt Stafford missing 6 games. The good news is that Stanton's mobility is a nice fit for Backus's awfulness ... at least Stanton can run away from Peppers. But that's only if he sees him coming. What separates great QBs from awful QBs is eyes in the back of their head. A guy like Manning, Brees, or even Vick does not get strip-sacked, because they know the timing down to the split-second. They see Peppers coming and step up in the pocket (or run away, in Vick's case) at exactly the right moment. The only way to have that ability is in-game experience. No way Stanton has that. Not even close. So as fast as he might be, he'll never see Peppers coming. And thus you can expect 4+ sacks for Chicago and a fumble or two.

If Detroit's smart, they'll double team Peppers with both Backus and Sims, and chip him with Maurice Morris as well. We really don't want to begin the Z-Rob experiment any sooner than necessary. And we know firsthand the devastation that a Peppers karate chop can have. Dude is pretty strong.

Calvin Johnson won't be guardable by Chicago's overrated secondary, but it won't matter unless Stanton can throw him the ball. And since he doesn't have the arm strength or the accuracy of Shaun Hill (which really isn't saying much), that's probably unlikely. Maybe Calvin will have 4 catches, 50 yards, and a TD. Maybe.

The running game won't exist once again, at least not from the RB position. But Drew Stanton does have one skill that might make this game interesting: he can scramble for first downs. 3rd and 5, 3rd and 7, even 3rd and 10, Stanton isn't afraid to take off towards the marker. He won't slide a yard short like Stafford. He'll go for it. That might keep drives alive and keep this game close. It also might commence Z-Rob's career.

The way Chicago is playing right now, coming off an impressive win against Vick and the Eagles, it's just way too hard to pick against them, especially against the Lions' 3rd string QB. I know Chicago is hugely overrated and I know Jay Cutler is garbage; I'm not jumping on the Chicago bandwagon at all. They're the worst 8-3 team in NFL history, and they're about to be the worst 9-3 team in the NFL history. I'm taking the Bears. Bah.

Ps. I know I didn't talk about the most obvious matchup in this game - Suh and KVB against the Bears' piss-poor pass protection. I felt it was too obvious. It's become almost a given that the Lions will put pressure on the quarterback, have a few sacks, and cause a few bad throws. But until the secondary can play like professionals, it's really not helping us win games. Suh is spectacular, and might have a 2 sack game against Cutler and Martz's moronic gameplan. But I don't trust the CBs to stop speedsters like Knox and Hester. As bad as Cutler is, he's one of the few quarterbacks who can be trusted to occasionally convert a 3rd and 15. Detroit would have a chance in this game if the defensive gameplan was flawless, and the blitzes were well-timed and effective, and the coverage schemes were competent. Unfortunately, I just don't trust Gunther Cunningham.

PS - Worst Case Scenario this week in fantasy. Playing against both Cutler AND Forte in the A league. The good news is a TD for one cancels out a TD for the other (unless it's a screen, in which case I boil some hot water and dump it on my head). The bad news is both guys should have at least 2 TDs without breaking a sweat. Come on Suh, I need you this week!

49ers (4-7) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5
Actual Line: GB by 10

See, this is why you don't want to start the season 0-6. You might stage a nice little comback, but then you have to travel to Lambeau in December. Green Bay wins this game, no doubt.

But isn't 10 points a little too high for a game that's supposed to by 29 degrees and snowy? It's going to be tough for even Aaron Rodgers to score in the snow without a running game. And San Fran has come confidence after the Monday night blowout. So they might keep it close for a while, even without Frank Gore. I see this game somewhere in the range of Packers 23, Niners 17. I'll take San Fran**.

Jaguars (6-5) @ Titans (5-6)
Predicted Line: TEN by 1.5
Actual Line: TEN by 2

Kerry Collins is listed as day-to-day with a calf injury, but after seeing the trainwreck named Rusty Smith last week you can bet that Jeff Fisher will put Collins out there even if he can't walk. Does a 37 year old quarterback even need calves anyway? That, along with the fact that nobody trusts the Jaguars, is why Tennessee is favored despite getting blanked last week.

I have absolutely no idea what to do for this game. The AFC South is a crapshoot. Probly just take the home team.

Denver (3-8) @ KC (7-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 6.5
Actual Line: KC by 9.5

This is the first line (other than the bad Lions line which doesn't account for Hill's injury) that I've missed by more than 1 point. This line is way too high. Matt Cassel shouldn't be giving 10 points to anybody. The Chiefs might cover, but I'd rather take the points. Especially with Orton leading the comeback attempt.

Browns (4-7) @ Miami (6-5)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4
Actual Line: MIA by 4.5

My brain says: Delhomme on the road! Take Miami!
But then my brain also says: Peyton Hillis is completely unstoppable!! Take Cleveland!

I am completely conflicted. What is more of a factor, Hillis's goodness or Delhomme's badness? I guess I'd have to say Delhomme's badness. I'll take Miami and hope Brandon Marshall plays. He should.

Bills (2-9) @ Vikings (4-7)
Predicted Line: MIN by 5.5
Actual Line: MIN by 5.5

This line is predictably low because AP is a gametime decision with a sprained ankle. But I personally think he'll play. And Buffalo's defense gave up 188 yards to Rashard Mendenhall last week, so even if AP sits out Toby Gerhard should run without much resistance. But like I said, I think AP will play, and thus, I like the Vikings in a big win. Especially because Buffalo is probably wore out after the heartbreaking loss to Pittsburgh last week in OT. This game has Vikings all over it. I might even make it the Lock of the Week. Yeah, I think I will.

Redskins (5-6) @ Giants (7-4)
Predicted Line: NYG by 7
Actual Line: NYG by 7

Both of these teams are quite awful right now. New York's high powered offense has become a lot less exciting without Nicks and Steve Smith. Mario Manningham should have had a bonkers week against Jacksonville last week, but he only had, what, 60 yards? I also expected a lot from new WR2 Derek Hagan, and he was invisible. Tight end Kevin Boss has suddenly become one of Eli's favorite targets, and he's as slow as any tight end I've ever seen. Add in the fumbling issues and injuries to the offensive line ... and I'm not a big fan of the Giants offense. Which is why I'm taking the Redskins, who I also don't like at all right now. They have bad receivers, a bad running game, and no identity on offense. Not to mention a bad offensive line, and a coach who seems to hate half of his players for no apparent reason. I hate both of these teams. So I expect a sloppy game and 7 points is probably too high.

Raiders (5-6) @ Chargers (6-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 10.5
Actual Line: SD by 13

Knew this line would be big, but didn't think it would be two-touchdowns big. That's asking a lot for an inconsistent San Diego team with a tremendously overrated defense. I don't trust them to stop McFadden or the big-play receivers in Oakland. Jacoby Ford has quickly made a name for himself as a 2 catches for 75 yards kind of guy. If this line were SD by 10 or 11, I'd sign up. But 13 is a bit too high. I'll go with Oakland in a 35-24 losing effort.

Carolina (1-10) @ Seahawks (5-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 6
Actual Line: SEA by 6

That's the fourth line I've guessed exactly.

Upset of the Week time. I actually like Carolina to win this game straight up, for a few different reasons.

1) Seattle is terrible. They can't run the ball (Marshawn Lynch is a joke; his YPC is a measly 3.1), they can't protect the passer, and Hasselbeck doesn't have any decent receivers right now. Whenever an injury to Mike Williams is severely crippling your offense, you know your team is pathetic. And their defense has been completely unable to stop the run ever since Colin Cole and Red Bryant got hurt about 5 weeks ago. (They were ranked 5th at stopping the run, since then they've fallen to 20th.) Their secondary has been terrible all year (they rank 30th) and in 3 of their last 4 games, Seattle has failed to record a sack. So yeah, Pete Carroll's squad is much worse than their 5-6 record.

2) Carolina isn't as bad as their 1-10 record indicates. Well, okay maybe they are. But last week they ran the ball for 153 yards against a pretty solid Browns defense. Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart were able to put Claussen in all kinds of 3rd and short situations, and despite having no NFL-caliber receivers, he played decently and almost rallied to win.

3) Seattle's home-field advantage isn't what it used to be. And typically it's unwise to pick an east-coast team traveling West , but John Fox has been an exception: he's 7-2 ATS on the west coast as head coach of the Panthers.

4) Did I mention that Seattle is terrible? They should in no way be 6 point favorites, ever. If you swapped these teams divisions and schedules, right now Carolina would be 5-6 and Seattle would be 1-10. They are equally talented. I'm taking Carolina to win straight up, and if all they do is cover the 6 point spread I'll at least get my Upset pick right.

Rams (5-6) @ Cardinals (3-8)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 3

Make that five lines picked precisely. Although this one was easy.

Rams are playing great right now, Cards are playing awful, but nobody wants to give a rookie QB more than a field goal on the road. This is a crappy situation for Bradford. If he loses this game, it's a big step backwards for his career, his reputation, and his ROY chances. People will question and doubt him and say "Come on, you can't even beat the CARDINALS?"

But if the Rams win, nobody will be impressed. They just beat a terrible team. Big deal.

It's sort of like the Lions recent game against the Bills. Nothing to gain, but everything to lose. The best thing Bradford can do is just play like he's been playing, and get the win.

And on the other side ...wait, what? I haven't said anything yet about Derek Anderson's unintentionally hilarious tirade after the MNF blowout? In case you didn't see it, Anderson was seen laughing on the sideline with a lineman during the blowout, and was asked about it by a reporter in the postgame conference. Here's Anderson's now-legendary reaction. And here's a parody video that was made the next day. Classic. And here's basketball star Dwight Howard making fun of Anderson. And this one is an absolute MUST-WATCH. I don't have anything else to add. Those videos speak for themselves. YouTube is awesome.

The thing that outrages me isn't that Anderson was laughing on the sideline. Whatever. It's a 3 hour game and who knows what he was laughing about. I'm sure it wasn't "Haha, I suck, I love losing." Probably an inside joke or making fun of a coach or something. Who knows.

People are saying, "Yeah, but you would never catch Tom Brady laughing on the sideline during a blowout loss." Very true. That's a valid point, and probably part of the reason why Brady is a champion and Anderson is not. But still, the laughter isn't what outrages me. It's the fact that Anderson is still allowed to start at quarterback for the Cardinals.

He's lost 5 straight as a starter, and in 8 starts this season his QB rating hasn't once exceeded 92. It's a dreary 68.2 for the season. And his completion percentage, 52.8%, is one of the worst I've ever seen. He's like a mix between Jake Delhomme's interceptions and JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy with a dash of David Carr's willingness to get sacked. But he has one thing none of those guys had. Larry Fitzgerald. And a Hall of Famer in Alan Faneca on the offensive line. So come one. Take Anderson out of there and see what you've got with the young QBs Max Hall and John Skelton. We've seen Hall stink this year (though he showed promise in beating the Saints) and for all we know, John Skelton might be okay. At least give him a chance you numskulls.

I know the Rams have been absymal on the road for the past 5 years or so, and it's tough to pick them as a road favorite covering 3 points. But with apologies to Carolina and Buffalo, I think Arizona is the NFL's worst team right now. So I've got to pick the Rams.

Cowboys (3-8) @ Colts (6-5)
Predicted Line: IND by 7.5
Actual Line: IND by 5

Ha.

This line makes me giggle. I'll take Indy and if I could I'd gladly put down a couple hundred dollars. I'm also changing this to my Lock of the week, instead of Minnesota. How can the oddsmakers say the Colts are only TWO points better than the Cowboys?? (remember, football betting 101 -homefield accounts for 3 points) This line is just absurd. Peyton Manning losing a third straight game, especially when the playoffs are on the line? Austin Collie should be back, Addai might be back, and Dez Bryant is hurt for the Cowboys. And do I need to remind you who the Cowboys quarterback is? Jon Kitna! Why is this line only 5 points?! What am I missing???

... Oh yeah, the Colts can't run the ball, they can't protect Manning, Dallas has DeMarcus Ware, and the Cowboys are finally playing up to their potential now that Wade is gone. Hmm. Plus Peyton has thrown 7 picks in the last 2 games. But I'm willing to say that was a fluke and he gets back on track. He's not the greatest QB ever for no reason.

Colts by 5. Lock of the Week. My prediction: Colts 30, Cowboys 20.

Falcons (9-2) @ Bucs (7-4)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3
Actual Line: ATL by 3

Picking the line here is the same situation as the Rams @ Cards game. The road team is clearly the better team, but it shouldn't be a blowout. That's almost always a line of 3. Don't look now but I've picked six of these lines to the exact point.

This game is huge for Tampa Bay, who wants to prove that they belong with the big boys. I've no doubt that Josh Freeman belongs (or will belong someday), but I have my doubts about the Tampa defense and the Tampa running game.

LeGarette Blount had a nice little streak going (nice enough that I was able to swap him straight up for Reggie Wayne, an absolute steal for me), but I think he's regressing into the immature rookie that he is. Plus that offensive line is below average, which is putting it mildly.

Aqib Talib is proving to be a stud at cornerback, but he's got his hands full with Roddy White. Last time these squads met White had a season-low 49 yards. Obviously you can't bench White in fantasy, but expect a less-than-amazing game from him and a better-than-average game from Tony Gonzalez.

The Bucs' front 7 really has no chance against Michael Turner. They gave up 107 yards and 2 TDs in their previous matchup, and rank dead last in YPC defense. Turner has a cake matchup. He'll have to carry the team, because as I've said before, Matt Ryan is not the same QB on the road. He struggles in outdoor games, which is weird because he played his college ball outdors in the northeast.

Like I said, this game is huge for Tampa Bay. It will make-or-break their playoff hopes. But, don't make the mistake of believing that this game is less meaningful for Atlanta, or that they'll be flat. They desperately need each remaining win to secure homefield throughout the playoffs, and considering Ryan's ridiculous 19-1 record at home, that's something they need more than any other team.

86% of the betting action is on Atlanta, which proves that nobody is buying into Tampa as a real team yet. I wish this line were 1 point or 2 lower, because I do think Atlanta probably wins. But I know Freeman will keep it close, and with a gun to my head I'd take the Bucs to cover. This is their biggest home game in years. Why are people always sticking guns to my head when I make my picks?!

Steelers (8-3) @ Ravens (8-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAL by 3

Sometimes picking the line is too easy. Same record, equal teams, the home team will be favored by 3. That's seven exact lines.

This is being hyped as the Game of the Week because it will dictate the winner of the AFC North. But I think it should be mentioned that both of these teams are already IN the playoffs. The loser of this game will be earning one Wildcard, while the other goes to the Jets-Pats loser. So while this is a huge game, it's not a playoff-determining game. Why not? Because both teams still have Cleveland and Cincinnati remaining on the schedule, so they'll both win at least 10 games, and that'll be enough for the playoffs in the AFC because the Colts and Chargers are going to win their divisions with 9-7 records. My guess is the winner of this game finishes 12-4 and the loser goes 11-5.

OK. Onto the actual game.

Baltimore won the previous matchup 17-14 at Heinz Field, but that game featured Charlie Batch instead of Rapelisberger, which is obviously huge. But that game was also in Pittsburgh, and this one is in Baltimore. Also huge.

We've learned a lot since week 4; Rashard Mendenhall is the unquestioned centerpiece of the Pittsburgh offense; Ray Rice is more dangerous as a receiver than a runner; injuries to the offensive line have hurt both teams, especially Pittsburgh; Baltimore's defense is overrated against the run, giving up 101 yards per game and 4.2 YPC, compared to 64 yards per game and 3.0 YPC for Pittsburgh's historically good run defense; Pittsburgh secretly stinks at defending the pass, ranking 22nd in terms of passing yards allowed and 23rd in completion percentage allowed. Baltimore's pass defense is actually much better, especially since Ed Reed returned from the PUP list. They ranked 7th and 9th in the two aforementioned statistics, respectively. But one of the key differences in these defenses is pass rush; Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the NFL with 32, while Baltimore's 19 sacks rank 28th best.

This should obviously be another low-scoring affair, and thus it makes sense to take the points and take Pittsburgh. Interesting fact: since the Roethlisberger-Flacco era began 3 years ago, this game has been decided by 4 or less points in 5 of 7 matchups. It's never been more than a 10 point game. I think that trend will continue, and I like the point. But I actually think the Steelers will win outright. But if they lose, it'll be by 3 points or less. Gimme dem Stellers en geddaff ma cotch. (Pittsburgh translation: Give me them Steelers, and get off my couch)

Jets (9-2) @ Patriots (9-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 3.5

Blast! If I had got that line exactly I would have picked 8 lines- HALF the games - exactly right. That would have been an accomplishment in itself.

But I should have smelled something fishy; everybody knows the Pats are an elite team and the Jets are a 9-2 team masquareding as elite but they have tons and tons of flaws. Starting with their quarterback Mark Sanchez, and his Derek Anderson-esque 55% completion percentage. And their washed up, overrated running back. And their vastly overrated pass defense which only ranks 12th best in the NFL, even though they talk about themselves like they're the 85 Bears.

But the most important distinction between these teams comes in the schedules. Listen to this and prepare to be blown away:

The Jets have beaten only ONE playoff team this season, and that was New England, week 2. Their other 8 wins are against Miami, Buffalo, Minnesota, Denver (because of a bad pass interference call), Detroit (because Suh missed an extra point and Detroit was unbelievably stupid), Cleveland (because the Browns fumbled in field goal range in OT), Houston (because the Texans blew a 16 point lead in the 4th quarter), and Cincinnati (because they stink). When they played elite defenses (Baltimore, Green Bay) they scored an average of less than 5 points per game. What's going to happen in the playoffs when they face either Baltimore or Pittsburgh?

The Pats, on the other hand, have beaten the four best teams in the AFC: Indy, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and San Diego. If you swap these teams' schedules, New England is 10-1 and the Jets are 6-5. No doubt in my mind. So, even if the Jets win this game, I'll still have no problem saying that New England is the better team.

So I am picking the Pats to win, and not just by 3; I think they'll win by 27. And here's why:

1) The last three times Belichick lost a divisional game and then faced that same team later on in the season, he won by 31, 20, and 17 points. He holds grudges. Especially against attention-hogging idiots like Rex Ryan. He'll run up the score and expose every weakness the Jets have.

2) Tom Brady knows how important this game is. The winner gets homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and a first round bye. The loser has to play either Manning or Rivers in the first round. The difference between Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez is like the difference between Kobe Bryant and Troy Murphy. It's embarassing.

This is the biggest regular season game of the year. And it's going to be all Pats.


That's all I got. Sorry these picks are later than usual. Go Lions.