After a 4-0 first round, I'm now looking ahead to the goal of a Perfect Postseason: 11-0. Probably not going to happen, but I'm feeling confident after the Wildcard round. To recap:
Jets 17, Colts 16.
I picked: Jets by 1.
Packers 21, Eagles 16.
I picked: Packers by 4.
Ravens 30, Chiefs 7.
I picked: Ravens by 24.
So for those three games, I was off by a TOTAL of two points.
And for the unspeakably weird Seattle game, I picked the Seahawks to cover and cover they did. In a big way. Seahawks 41, Saints 36. By the way... was this game the fulfillment of the Madden Curse?
Both Super Bowl teams from a year ago are now eliminated (although, this was the first year in a decade that both previous Super teams actually made the playoffs) and everyone's favorite dog-killer is also gone. Brady and Rodgers are now the only truly elite quarterbacks remaining, with Ryan and Flacco knocking on the door. As for Roethlisberger, I don't mean any disrespect, but his defense is carrying the team and everyone knows it. The other three remaining quarterbacks are considerably below average.
It is a quarterback league, but we just saw Hasselbeck outduel Brees and Sanchez beat Manning. Anything can happen. Never underestimate the power of "nobody believed in us!" syndrome. With that, let's get to the Divisional round picks.
Ravens (13-4) @ Steelers (12-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3
Somehow, I've known this would be a playoff game all season, and I've been trying to figure out the pick. I feel like I have a pretty good read on both teams, and yet picking this game is darn near impossible. Here's the situation:
Both teams have ridiculously good run defenses - among the best ever. Both teams have elite safeties who patrol the secondary. Both teams blitz the passer remarkably well. Both defenses are led by Hall of Famers.
Both offenses like to run the ball to set up the deep pass. Both teams have a dynamic downfield receiver and a steady possession guy. Both teams have mediocre tight ends. Both teams have solid but not spectacular running backs. Both teams are extremely well-coached, and make very few mistakes.
This game is in Pittsburgh, but the road team won the matchup both times during the regular season, so I'm writing that off as a non-factor. These teams know each other and hate each other, and this game promises to be full of violence.
My initial analysis is this: Baltimore has fewer weaknesses. In reality, they have none. Flacco isn't great, but he's not a weakness. The cornerbacks aren't great, but they do okay. The receiving crew could be better, but it's good.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a few glaring weaknesses which they've effectively covered up all year. The offensive line is bad. Really bad. And the pass defense sans Polamalu is also bad. Because of those things, the running backs struggle to convert short-down situations, and the cornerbacks get beat in single coverage. They routinely put Roethlisberger in unfavorable situations, and he tends to be at his best with his back against the wall. Especially when his back is against the wall of a dirty bathroom stall in Georgia. Ew, gross.
I'm fairly sure that Baltimore is the better overall team, on paper. They may not have as many studs, but they have less question marks.
But because of the style of game this will be, I'm also leaning towards picking Pittsburgh. It's going to be low-scoring; that's a given. But it's also going to be smart, methodical, slow-paced, and precise. Both teams play extremely carefully on offense. This game is going to come down to one thing: big plays.
It might be a punt return, or a blocked punt, or a kickoff return. It might be a defensive touchdown, or a botched snap, or an 85 yard pass where the defender trips over his own feet. I don't know. But I know this game will be dictated by what happens on two or three key plays which cover a lot of yards.
And that's where I lean towards Pittsburgh. I just think they have more players with a knack for the dramatic. Polamalu, obviously, but also Mike Wallace and James Harrison and James Farrior, and of course Roethlisberger. Big Ben seems to thrive in the clutch, while Joe Flacco seems a little afraid of it. Will this be the game he evolves into a truly elite quarterback?
This seems like an ideal time to mention that Flacco is 0-5 lifetime against Ben.
Baltimore's stud players, like Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata and Anquan Boldin and Terrell Suggs, are great players, but not really 'big-play' guys. Ed Reed is their exception. I don't see Derrick Mason catching a 15 yard hook, breaking a tackle, and running 60 yards to the endzone. No way. But Hines Ward? That wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Games between Pittsburgh and Baltimore are always close. 6 of their last 7 meetings have been decided by 4 points or less, including 4 straight which have been won by exactly 3 points. So picking Baltimore and takings the points seems like the easy choice. Especially because the Pittsburgh crowd will probably cause more harm than help, because they're all so stupid they won't know when to cheer and when to be quiet. If all the Ravens wore big black wigs the fans wouldn't even know who to cheer for. "Is 'at Troy? Which 'un's Troy? Don 'er? Ower 'er? ... YINS 'ER ALL TROY!! "
(Translation: Is that Troy? Which one's Troy? Down there? Over here? You are all Troy!")
The moral dilemma: if pick the team I hate, at least I'll get one win. Either I get the pick right, or the satisfaction of Pittsburgh losing. But with 11-0 in sight, I can't employ any tricks. I've just got to pick the game the best I can. And here's my final answer:
Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 17.
Packers (11-6) @ Falcons (13-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by 6.5
Actual Line: ATL by 2
The NFL playoffs have two major flaws. One of them was on full display last weekend, as Seattle rode their crowd to a shocking win that never would have happened in New Orleans. The Saints went up 17-7, and in the Superdome that would have been game-over. But in Qwest it didn't mean anything, and Seattle came back and won. Blame that game on the faulty system.
I know, I know, the Saints should have won. The road teams won the other 3 Wildcard games, and they have nobody to blame but themselves. I get all that. But the system is still messed up, and the Saints deserved to have a home game. They won 4 more games than Seattle. If they were at home, they undoubtedly would have won.
The second flaw is seen in full display in this game. Here you have the best team in the NFC (record-wise) playing the 11-6 Packers, while the Bears get to play the 8-9 Seahawks. How is that fair? Why should matchups be based on seeding and not record, when the seeding is obviously a flawed system to begin with? Chicago basically gets a free pass to the NFC Championship because of a completely retarded system! While Atlanta technically DESERVES to host Seattle. What is the point of going 13-3 if it earns you a game against Green Bay instead of Seattle? Atlanta would have been better off losing 2 games on purpose!
Stupid, stupid, stupid system. Goddell needs to make a fix. It wouldn't be hard to do, and it wouldn't hurt anybody's feelings. So just do it Roger.
Maybe I'm just bitter because Chicago doesn't even belong in the playoffs, much less in the NFC Championship. Anyway, we'll get to them later.
For this game, I was way too low on the line because I figured Atlanta's 13-3 season and Matt Ryan's 18-2 record at home earns them some respect. Apparently not. Green Bay beat the beloved dog murderer and now they have America's backing. Further proof that people inexplicably love Michael Vick.
One of the biggest matchups in this game is the Packers' improving-but-not-yet-great run defense against Michael Turner, who should get 30 carries at least. That will be paramount for both teams. Atlanta will obviously want to keep their defense on the sideline and win time of possession. That's the key to beating a great offense. And Green Bay will want to keep Turner from shredding their defense and exposing the CBs to one-on-one coverage. Don't make Matt Ryan's job any easier than you have to.
I expect Green Bay to abandon the running game and throw early and often. They know Aaron Rodgers is their only chance of winning a difficult road postseason game. Give your best player the ball, and hope for big plays. Atlanta's secondary is just okay (22nd in yards, 14th in QB rating), and their pass rush is average (20th in sacks). Their run defense is a strength, but Green Bay probably only needs to run the ball 10-15 times with Starks and Jackson to keep the secondary just a little bit honest. Key matchups will be Dunta Robinson against Greg Jennings, John Abraham against Chad Clifton, and Donald Driver/James Jones against Brent Grimes/William Moore. I tend to think Green Bay has the advantage in all those matchups, but it's close.
When Atlanta has the ball, it'll obviously be Charles Woodson trying to contain Roddy White, with plenty of help from the safeties. Sam Baker has the unenviable task of blocking Clay Matthews, and Tony Gonzalez will probably match up with A.J. Hawk and/or Desmond Bishop. Green Bay has the defense to limit Atlanta's high-flying offense, just like they did last week in Philly. Matthews is the key; he's basically unblockable. He dominated Jason Peters, and should do the same thing to Baker.
That's why the key to this game is the interior running game for Atlanta. How will Turner do on 1st and 10 runs up the middle? His YPC will dictate everything.
My gut feeling is that a rested Michael Turner has a huge game, something like 32 carries for 160 yards, and he limits Green Bay's offense by keeping them off the field. Rodgers keeps the game very close, but Atlanta's homefield makes the difference.
Final score: Falcons 28, Packers 24.
So I'll take the Falcons (-2), thanks to the surprisingly low spread.
Seahawks (8-9) @ Bears (11-5)
Predicted Line: CHI by 9.5
Actual Line: CHI by 10
What a joke.
Final score: Bears 23, Seahawks 16.
I'm taking the Seahawks to cover again.
Jets (12-5) @ Patriots (14-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5
Actual Line: NE by 8.5
Once again, Rex Ryan is making this game all about him. Last week he said it was "personal" against Peyton Manning. This week, he used the same word in reference to his matchup with Bellichick. The funny thing is, he's absolutely correct in both games. But why does he need to broadcast it? Why steal the headlines from your deserving players? They are the ones who beat the Colts. I'm so sick of Rex. How awful is it that my 3 least favorite teams (Pittsburgh, Chicago, NY Jets) are all in the final 8. At least two of them will likely be in the final 4. Ugggghh.
I've decided not to talk about Rex anymore, and instead focus on the real reason why the Jets went 11-5 and beat the Colts in Indy. Their freaking players.
For starters, they have the league's best center in Nick Mangold. He might be a top 20 overall player. He is dominant. They also have bonafide studs at LT and RG. That's why they can run the ball effectively no matter who the backs are. Just ask Thomas Jones about that.
They also have arguably the league's best receiving crew. I racked my brain to think of which teams were better in the WR/TE department, and I came up with maybe Indy, Dallas or Green Bay. But all of those teams were hit with injuries. The Jets haven't sustained a single meaningful injury to their offense all season. That's why a very mediocre Mark Sanchez has led his team to 3 playoff wins in two seasons. (By contrast Matt Stafford has led his team to 3 TOTAL wins in two seasons.)
Defensively, the Jets have a top 10 overall player at cornerback in Darelle Revis. He's their lynchpin. I don't think he's quite as good as Asomugha, but he's the #2 corner in the league, and he wins his individual matchup against the receiver 49 times out of 50. Across from Revis is Cromartie, who is a top 10 cornerback in his own right. Then you add 3 stud linebackers and a solid safety, and you have an all-around very good defense.
That's why the Jets went 11-5. Mangold and Revis, Holmes and Scott, Keller and Harris. Not Rex Ryan. It's about the players, and they have darn good players.
I'm not saying Rex isn't a great coach. He is. He motivates and inspires, maybe even to a fault. And he knows defense. He really knows defense.
I'm just saying he's making this all about him, and it's just so dang annoying. He dominates headlines so much that I just wrote 435 words without even mentioning the 14-2 Patriots, who quietly had one of the most efficient offensive seasons in NFL history, and who beat the Jets 45-3 a couple months ago.
New England finished the season on a eight game winning streak (talk about momentum) in which they won by an average of 22 points and scored at least 31 in each contest. Tom Brady hasn't thrown an interception since October 17. He's thrown 26 touchdowns since his last INT, and 326 attempts. I'm not even going to bother looking it up; I'm just going to assume those are both NFL records.
You always see quarterbacks throwing interceptions that "aren't their fault." Dropped balls, the receiver fell down, etc. Especially if you're a Lions fan, you can easily justify a 3 INT game. So how is it that Brady throws 326 passes without a single pick? Is he just really lucky? Somehow, I don't think that's it.
Could it be that his knowledge of the game and the opposing defense is so encyclopedic that he doesn't throw a pass unless he knows the outcome of his pass before he even throws it? He knows his receiver will fall down before he actually falls down? I don't know. I'm just speculating. It's a magnificent accomplishment, and a standard to which other quarterbacks should be held when they throw "not-their-fault" interceptions. And yes, this was a thinly veiled attack on Matthew Stafford.
I could analyze the heck out of this game, talk about matchups and all that jazz. But bottom line: it's Brady against Sanchez. In Foxboro, where Brady has won 28 straight games (another NFL record). I think this will be a Brady/Belichick classic beatdown, and we won't have to see Rex's face until next September, when he guarantees another Super Bowl for the Jets.
Final score: Patriots 37, Jets 6.
......
Now for a section called: Detroit Lions: 2011 Draft
First off, I'd like to apologize for misleading you for the past month into thinking the Lions will draft Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi in the first round. I've had a change of heart, and I no longer think that will be the pick. Allow me to explain.
For one thing, Jeff Backus wasn't as bad this season as we all think. When Stafford got hurt week 1 and it was clearly Backus's fault, we were all ready for a change. I wrote back then: "Stafford didn't even survive one half of 2010 football without a serious injury...Blame Jeff Backus."
But in a recent survey among NFC North experts, Jeff Backus was voted the best left tackle in the division, and surprisingly, I'd have to agree. The Lions actually had 8 winners of the 22 starting positions, whereas in the past two years they had 6 combined. This team really is improving.
I don't suddenly love Backus and want him to start at LT for another 5 years, don't get me wrong - I'm merely saying that offensive line isn't the team's biggest area of need. And thus, I no longer think Carimi is the right pick at #13. Here are a few reasons why:
1) Scouts aren't even sure if Carimi is the best LT in this draft class. Others think Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State is better, or Nate Solder from Colorado. Boston College's Anthony Castonzo has even got first-round mention.
2) Carimi is a reach at #13. In looking at five or six mock drafts, the earliest I've seen Carimi (or any LT) go is 17th. It appears highly likely that one of the top 4 LTs will be around for Detroit's second-round pick.
3) There's a ton of talent at the Lions' other positions of need - namely CB and OLB - which should be available at pick 13. If either of the elite CBs drop to 13 (highly unlikely) or if DE Robert Quinn somehow slips (also unlikely), it would be too good to pass up. What works in the Lions favor is having so many teams ahead of us who need QBs, and so many QBs with supposed first-round talent. Between Newton, Mallet, Gabbert, and Locker all possibly going before Detroit, and receiver AJ Green definitely going in the top 5, that leaves only 8 or 9 defensive players before Detroit. We can hope receiver Julio Jones goes in the top 12 also, and maybe Mark Ingram. Detroit might actually get the 6th defensive player in this draft, which would be awesome.
We know Nick Fairley is going top 5, and likely Da'Quan Bowers as well. Patrick Peterson is highly unlikely to escape the top 9 (with Dallas needing a CB), but they might prefer Prince Amukamara who has better coverage skills. The ideal situation for the Lions is if one of those players, preferably Amukamara, falls to #13. That would happen if the QBs go early, and teams take DE/OLBs instead of CBs.
According to the many mock drafts I've seen, the Lions have a legitimately decent chance of landing a bonafide top 5 talent with pick 13. But if Quinn, Fairley, Bowers, Peterson and Amukamara are all gone - which they probably will be - it becomes a much more difficult decision.
Then, we'll have to decide between a left tackle (probably Carimi, maybe one of the other guys) or an OLB or CB. The best corners would be either Jenkins from Florida or Harris from Miami. The best OLBs include Von Miller from Texas A&M, Ackeem Ayers from UCLA, or Justin Houston from Georgia.
It's well-documented how OLB-heavy this draft class is, so Detroit's smartest strategy might be to wait on that position until the second or third round, and take Carimi at 13. One thing's for sure - Detroit NEEDS two starting outside linebackers next season. Julian Peterson is gone, and Zach Follet is a reserve at best, plus he's hurt. We can make do with Backus, and Chris Houston can retain at least one CB job. But we don't have any OLBs.
It's impossible to predict who will be available at pick #13, but if I had to guess right now, I'd say the Lions take Von Miller from Texas A&M - winner of the Butkus Award for the nation's best linebacker. He often gets compared to Clay Matthews. It's been said that "66% of the world is covered by water, the rest is covered by Von Miller." Check out these highlights of Von for excitement-building purposes.
With pick #44, we'll take either a CB (Aaron Williams from Texas?) or an LT (Tyron Smith, USC?). We might even take another OLB if we like the available talent. A lot will depend on what happens in free agency over the next 3 months. Some folks speculate that Detroit will pick up Albert Haynesworth and his horrible contract, which would obviously change our entire defense.
Also, don't discount the possibility that the Lions might trade up in the first round to land a stud like Bowers or Quinn. They could swap with #5 Arizona (who might want to trade backwards and wait for a QB) or with #7 San Francisco (for the same reason), or even #10 Washington (same thing again). This would be wise, because the two teams directly ahead of Detroit (Houston and Minnesota) have similar needs. Both teams need CBs and OLBs. It would be great if we could jump ahead and take Amukamara.
Okay, that's enough Draft talk for now. Still got 3 months to wait.
My Mock Draft is coming soon-ish. Probably not until late February.
Go Lions.
And Ravens, Patriots and Seahawks....
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Thursday, January 6, 2011
HUGE story -- breaking news
This might be bigger than the NFL playoffs this weekend. (See my picks below if you missed them). Stanford sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck released a statement today, saying:
"I am committed to earning my degree in architectural design from Stanford University and am on track to accomplish this at the completion of the spring quarter of 2012."
In other words ...
"I just gave up $40 million GUARANTEED dollars for a college degree."
Wow.
The guaranteed #1 overall pick (Carolina even confirmed last week) stays in college. Within minutes of this story breaking on ESPN.com, there were already hundreds of comments from readers.
Most people think he's an idiot for turning down that money and risking his health. You could be the best damn architect in the history of the world, but you're not making $15 million a year at 21 years old.
Other people admire his intelligence and commitment, or think he just doesn't want to play for Carolina. I agree with the first part, but not the second. Why wouldn't he want to be on the Panthers? They've got two good running backs and two stud offensive linemen and a few solid defensive players. They suck, sure, but they've got some pieces. They're no worse than St. Louis was last year.
This has nothing to do with Carolina, their lack of a head coach and their worthless receivers. This has to do with 2 factors, one of which scares the crap out of me.
1) Jim Harbaugh, Stanford's coach and Luck's mentor. He's being recruited to coach at U of M, and for the 49ers, Dolphins, and Broncos. With this unexpected news, I'd guess that Harbaugh and Luck are on the same page, and will both stay at Stanford in an effort to win a national championship. And right now I'd make them the preseason #1.
2) The Collective Bargaining Agreement. This is the one that scares me. Luck might have stayed in college knowing that an NFL lockout is a possibility, and he wanted to make sure he was playing football. I hope that's not the case. I hate even the thought of the lockout, and try not to think about it.
Either way, this is a ballsy decision. Last year Jake Locker turned down the draft and saw his stock slip from a top 5 pick to a fringe first rounder. He probably lost $20 or $30 million. Others, like Sam Bradford, have stayed in school and the gamble paid off.
An injury would be catastrophic, and would cost Luck more money than I can even think about. He'd make a great architect and his life would go on, but that's a lot of money to risk. But I think Luck is smart enough to know that his chances of suffering a serious injury are pretty slim.
This decision is ballsy not because of the injury-risk as much as the fact that Luck is the concensus #1 pick. No one else is even being considered. No matter how well he plays next year, even if he wins the Heismann and the BCS "championship," the best he can be is the #1 pick. Which tells me something about Luck - money is not his motivator.
How refreshing. How insane.
Is this really a Joakim Noah/ Tim Tebow situation where the guy just wants to win a championship? Is this a Jake Locker thing where he wants a shot at the Heismann? Or is this really about the degree?
People are all saying - hey, you can still get a degree while you play football! Or after your career is over! What do you need an architecture degree for if you're going to be a professional athlete! That's like Mozart saying "Real quick before I write my next symphony, I'm going to study ad become a blacksmith."
I don't know how I feel about this. I think it's stupid, but admirable. I think he's kind of an idiot, but kind of a role model. If I were in his shoes, I'd join the NFL Draft and not think twice. Forget Harbaugh, forget architecture, I'd buy myself a couple houses in Charlotte and a private jet. A no-brainer.
But maybe Andrew Luck is a better guy than me. Maybe this decision is so stinking noble that I can't even fathom what he's thinking. Or maybe, he really just doesn't want to be on the Panthers. Who the heck knows.
I'll tell you who LOVES hearing this news more than anybody else: Jimmy Claussen. Dude just kept his starting job. Although he's going to be battling the unwanted blues, knowing he was almost replaced.
Who else is thriving on Luck's decision: first round quarterbacks Cam Newton, Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, and of course Locker. Oh, and whoever Carolina takes #1 overall - probably receiver A.J. Green from Georgia or maybe CB Patrick Peterson or DT Nick Fairley.
This is going to mess up everyone's draft board. Before this news I would have projected four quarterbacks being drafted in the top 10. Now I don't know. Maybe three, maybe five? Will Carolina still take one? Buffalo picks #3, Arizona is #5, San Fran is #7, Tennessee is #8, and Washington is #10. All of those teams need quarterbacks. So do #2 (Denver) and #4 (Cincinnati) but those teams are stupidly sticking with their crappy guys. Picks #12 (Minnesota) and #15 (Miami) might look to trade up for quarterbacks. It all depends on each team's individual draft board. Some will want Newton, others will want Mallet, etc. No one will know until draft day. Not even Mel Kiper Jr.
For those who don't truly appreciate what a stud Luck is or have never seen him play, check out these links:
"I am committed to earning my degree in architectural design from Stanford University and am on track to accomplish this at the completion of the spring quarter of 2012."
In other words ...
"I just gave up $40 million GUARANTEED dollars for a college degree."
Wow.
The guaranteed #1 overall pick (Carolina even confirmed last week) stays in college. Within minutes of this story breaking on ESPN.com, there were already hundreds of comments from readers.
Most people think he's an idiot for turning down that money and risking his health. You could be the best damn architect in the history of the world, but you're not making $15 million a year at 21 years old.
Other people admire his intelligence and commitment, or think he just doesn't want to play for Carolina. I agree with the first part, but not the second. Why wouldn't he want to be on the Panthers? They've got two good running backs and two stud offensive linemen and a few solid defensive players. They suck, sure, but they've got some pieces. They're no worse than St. Louis was last year.
This has nothing to do with Carolina, their lack of a head coach and their worthless receivers. This has to do with 2 factors, one of which scares the crap out of me.
1) Jim Harbaugh, Stanford's coach and Luck's mentor. He's being recruited to coach at U of M, and for the 49ers, Dolphins, and Broncos. With this unexpected news, I'd guess that Harbaugh and Luck are on the same page, and will both stay at Stanford in an effort to win a national championship. And right now I'd make them the preseason #1.
2) The Collective Bargaining Agreement. This is the one that scares me. Luck might have stayed in college knowing that an NFL lockout is a possibility, and he wanted to make sure he was playing football. I hope that's not the case. I hate even the thought of the lockout, and try not to think about it.
Either way, this is a ballsy decision. Last year Jake Locker turned down the draft and saw his stock slip from a top 5 pick to a fringe first rounder. He probably lost $20 or $30 million. Others, like Sam Bradford, have stayed in school and the gamble paid off.
An injury would be catastrophic, and would cost Luck more money than I can even think about. He'd make a great architect and his life would go on, but that's a lot of money to risk. But I think Luck is smart enough to know that his chances of suffering a serious injury are pretty slim.
This decision is ballsy not because of the injury-risk as much as the fact that Luck is the concensus #1 pick. No one else is even being considered. No matter how well he plays next year, even if he wins the Heismann and the BCS "championship," the best he can be is the #1 pick. Which tells me something about Luck - money is not his motivator.
How refreshing. How insane.
Is this really a Joakim Noah/ Tim Tebow situation where the guy just wants to win a championship? Is this a Jake Locker thing where he wants a shot at the Heismann? Or is this really about the degree?
People are all saying - hey, you can still get a degree while you play football! Or after your career is over! What do you need an architecture degree for if you're going to be a professional athlete! That's like Mozart saying "Real quick before I write my next symphony, I'm going to study ad become a blacksmith."
I don't know how I feel about this. I think it's stupid, but admirable. I think he's kind of an idiot, but kind of a role model. If I were in his shoes, I'd join the NFL Draft and not think twice. Forget Harbaugh, forget architecture, I'd buy myself a couple houses in Charlotte and a private jet. A no-brainer.
But maybe Andrew Luck is a better guy than me. Maybe this decision is so stinking noble that I can't even fathom what he's thinking. Or maybe, he really just doesn't want to be on the Panthers. Who the heck knows.
I'll tell you who LOVES hearing this news more than anybody else: Jimmy Claussen. Dude just kept his starting job. Although he's going to be battling the unwanted blues, knowing he was almost replaced.
Who else is thriving on Luck's decision: first round quarterbacks Cam Newton, Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, and of course Locker. Oh, and whoever Carolina takes #1 overall - probably receiver A.J. Green from Georgia or maybe CB Patrick Peterson or DT Nick Fairley.
This is going to mess up everyone's draft board. Before this news I would have projected four quarterbacks being drafted in the top 10. Now I don't know. Maybe three, maybe five? Will Carolina still take one? Buffalo picks #3, Arizona is #5, San Fran is #7, Tennessee is #8, and Washington is #10. All of those teams need quarterbacks. So do #2 (Denver) and #4 (Cincinnati) but those teams are stupidly sticking with their crappy guys. Picks #12 (Minnesota) and #15 (Miami) might look to trade up for quarterbacks. It all depends on each team's individual draft board. Some will want Newton, others will want Mallet, etc. No one will know until draft day. Not even Mel Kiper Jr.
For those who don't truly appreciate what a stud Luck is or have never seen him play, check out these links:
- Interview in which you can tell what a truly humble guy he is.
- 58 yard run in which he shows why they call him 'Peyton Manning with wheels.'
- 50 yard bullet pass.
- 45 yard pass from his knees - eat your heart out JaMarcus.
- Freaking cannon.
- And last but not least, the play of the year.
Playoff Picks
To recap, I went 138-114-4 (54.7%) this regular season. These playoffs are going to be weird for a variety of reasons:
1) Seeding. Because of the wacky rules the road team is the better team in 3 of the 4 Wildcard matchups. That's going to mean Home Dogs in 3 games, and it's always difficult to choose between the home team and the better team.
2) Overtime. Remember, effective in the 2011 playoffs are the new overtime rules. Simple version: the team that receives the kickoff can't win with a field goal. If they score 7, they win. If they score 3, the other team gets a chance to score 7 and win, or score 3 and force sudden death. Here's to hoping OT happens, so we can see baffled coaches try to figure it out.
3) Seattle. The worst playoff team in NFL history is hosting a game. So weird. How large can they make this spread? Can Seattle possibly, conceivably, dare-I-say win this game?
Let's get to the Wildcard picks:
Saints (11-5) @ Seahawks (7-9)
Predicted Line: NO by 8.5
Actual Line: NO by 10.5
I'm willing to say this is the only time in NFL history that a home team has been double-digit underdogs. But it's also the only time a 7-9 team has made the playoffs, or the first time a team with an impossibly bad point differential of NEGATIVE 97 has gotten in. The rules are stupid. It's undeniable. As John McCain might say, "The system is broken."
But I'm not willing to say Seattle should have missed the playoffs, or that 10-6 Tampa should be in instead. If you win your division, you belong in the playoffs. If they change that, you'd have 10-6 Seattle tied with 10-6 Tampa and Tampa getting in on a tiebreaker and that would be just as bad. You can't fix the fact that a 7-9 team snuck in, you just have to wait for the NFC West to improve. Sam Bradford will help; St. Louis should win at least 9 next year. But what the NFL can do, and should do, and in fact MUST do, is change the way homefield advantage happens. Give it to the team with a better record, plain and simple.
The Saints playing AT Seattle is a travesty. Homefield is a really, really, really big deal. Seattle does NOT deserve homefield advantage against a team that won 4 more games than they did against a much tougher schedule. Enough said.
For this game, I'm actually going against 82% of America and taking the Seahawks. Not to win outright, but to cover the 10.5 points. I doubt they'll get blown out in a home playoff game. I could be wrong. But something tells me they'll make it interesting, or at least watchable.
A few reasons why:
1) New Orleans is struggling to run the ball, and Seattle is pretty good against the run lately since Colin Cole returned from injury. Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are now on IR, which means Julius Jones and Reggie Bush should get 10+ carries each. Neither will do anything. Obviously Brees can move the chains by himself, but a running game would help New Orleans if this is a blowout.
2) Marques Colston is questionable with a knee injury. He says he'll play, but I don't think he'll be near 100%. Brees will certainly spread the ball to Meachem and Moore without missing a beat, but it doesn't help to be without your best receiver.
3) Seattle has a pretty strong home-field advantage. At least they used to, back when Seattle was good. They used to be like Atlanta - the team that could always win at home, but was shaky on the road. Since 2006, Seattle is 4-0 in playoff home games (with wins by 21, 1, 10, and 20) and 0-3 in road playoff games. I think the fans will be excited to have a meaningful game for the first time in 3 years.
4) The Saints don't usually blow out crappy teams. Sean Peyton is 3-9 lifetime against-the-spread as a double-digit favorite. Part of that is because they struggle to run the ball.
For those reasons, and just because I like to be different, I'm taking Seattle +10.5.
Final score: Saints 28, Seahawks 20.
Jets (11-5) @ Colts (10-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: IND by 2.5
What a screwy line. My thought is Vegas is going to avoid even-number spreads in the playoffs so there are no ties. But I'm surprised they didn't lean upwards to IND by 3.5.
I'm conflicted, because I can't stand the Jets and definitely want them to lose, but I don't really like Peyton Manning all that much either. I like watching him lose in the playoffs. It's just fun.
But I refuse to cheer for Rex Ryan, who is trying to steal headlines yet again by calling this game "personal." What, because the Colts knocked you out of the playoffs last year? Welcome to life buddy. Shut your mouth and get ready to coach. Stop trying to monopolize headlines and get your overrated defense ready to face an elite quarterback.
There's a reason Rex has never beat Peyton as a coach or a coordinator, unless you count those week 17 rest-the-starter games. It's simply: Ryan is a blitzing fiend, and Peyton is probably the best quarterback ever against the blitz.
So something's gotta give. Either Ryan sends 4 and hopes to create pressure, or the Jets blitz like mad and the Colts beat them. If Ryan can put his ego and his tendencies aside, the Jets will get this win.
Why? Because it's actually pretty easy to put pressure on the Colts with only 4 pass-rushers. The offensive line is hurt and playing very poorly. Without Collie and Clark, Manning has struggled against zone defenses all season. He can't find his middle-of-the-field receiver, and forces bad throws to Wayne and Garcon, who both have problems with drops. It's been a sloppy offense all season, and they've lacked any semblance of a consistent running game. Addai is finally healthy, but that means next to nothing.
For the Jets, it should also be an offensively-challenged performance. Indy, who is thought to be terrible against the run, has held their past three opponents (Jones-Drew, McFadden, Chris Johnson) to an average of about 56 yards and 3.8 YPC. Whatever they're doing, it's working right now. And the Jets have surprisingly sucked at running the ball, especially lately. Tomlinson is so washed up and for some reason no one will admit it.
It's going to be a lot of pressure on Sanchez to convert third downs, and fortunately for him the Colts' defense is generous in that respect. They allow a 39% third-down conversion rate, one of the worst marks in the AFC. But Sanchez isn't exactly a proven stud yet. I don't have much confidence in him at all.
So what's the pick? Will Ryan blitz Manning and pay the price? Or will he play it smart, and dare the Colts to run? I hate to say it, but I think he'll play it smart. As loud and obnoxious and annoying as he is, you can't deny his will to win, and he might put aside his years of blitzing experience and go with what he knows will work. Against the zone, Manning will struggle.
So I am taking the Jets, who haven't beat a playoff-caliber team since week 2, on the road, against the first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, even though I hate them.
That way, if I miss the pick, at least the Jets are out.
Final Score: Jets 25, Colts 24.
Ravens (12-4) @ Chiefs (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3.5
Actual Line: BAL by 3
So much for my no-even-numbered-spreads theory. Whatever.
This game clearly should be played in Baltimore. Forcing a 12-4 team to play on the road in the playoffs is just insane. Kansas City isn't as vile and undeserving as the Seahawks, but they're close. They only played one team all season who made the playoffs, and that was a 19-9 loss to Indy. (I didn't count Seattle). They went a combined 6-4 against the horrid AFC and NFC Wests, and also beat Buffalo and Cleveland. They have nothing to be proud of. They would be sitting at home if San Diego didn't stupidly start the season 2-5.
I hate picking against Home Dogs, especially ones that have won 7 of their last 8 home games. But like I just said, Kansas City hasn't played anybody. Baltimore is an all-around elite team with just tons and tons of talent. They are well-coached, well-quarerbacked, and they have Ray Lewis. Plus I picked them to win the Super Bowl. So I'm taking the Ravens.
One last reason why: KC is a running team all the way. They led the NFL in rushing yards and attempts. Jamaal Charles had over 1,400 yards. But Baltimore was a top five rushing defense. They were also a top five rushing defense in 2009. And 2008. And 2007. And 2006. In other words, every year since they drafted Haloti Ngata. As much as I love Suh with all my heart, I can't call him the best DT in the league. Not yet. Ngata (ironically pronounced NADA) is just a complete beast. If the Chiefs can't run, they definitely can't win.
Final Score: Ravens 31, Chiefs 7.
Packers (10-6) @ Eagles (10-6)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Like: PHI by 2.5
Geez, trying to guess these lines feels like trying to tackle a squirrel.
This game is going to be awesome. Both of these teams are Super Bowl contenders and have elite quarterbacks with elite weapons. Both teams have meh defenses, although the Packers' defense is much better. This game should just be all-around awesome.
The key to stopping Michael Vick, as the Giants and Vikings have showed us, is speed and athleticism. As Golic says, get an athletic equivalent to chase him around IN THE BACKFIELD. The Giants did that with Antrelle Rolle. The Vikings did it with Winfield. For the Packers, they have the perfect guy in Clay Matthews.
Philly's offensive line is not very good, and they lost a starting guard week 17. Vick should see plenty of pressure, and might be forced into mistakes. Charles Woodson can cover DeSean Jackson, although he might give up a big play due to the large speed advantage. Green Bay isn't tremendous against the run, but Philly doesn't really run the ball all that much. At least not with the running backs.
Typically, the only way to beat Philly is to outscore them. You know they'll put up 30 or more points. Well, for one thing I think Green Bay can outscore them. But for another, I think Green Bay just might have a defense that can shut Vick down.
Last time Green Bay was in the playoffs, you might remember they scored 45 points ... and lost. Well this time they aren't playing the worthless Cardinals defense, but they are playing a 13th ranked defense which is hugely overrated. Philly can't stop the run (remember Jahvid Best), which doesn't really matter since Green Bay can't run. But Philly also stinks against the pass, especially in zone. Rodgers should have plenty of time to throw, and should have no trouble at all figuring out the coverages. Free safety Nate Allen will miss this game, as will LB Stewart Bradley.
I think this game will be a classic, and Rodgers will outduel Vick for his first postseason win.
Final score: Packers 38, Eagles 34.
And that's all I got. stay tuned for whatever else.
go lions.
1) Seeding. Because of the wacky rules the road team is the better team in 3 of the 4 Wildcard matchups. That's going to mean Home Dogs in 3 games, and it's always difficult to choose between the home team and the better team.
2) Overtime. Remember, effective in the 2011 playoffs are the new overtime rules. Simple version: the team that receives the kickoff can't win with a field goal. If they score 7, they win. If they score 3, the other team gets a chance to score 7 and win, or score 3 and force sudden death. Here's to hoping OT happens, so we can see baffled coaches try to figure it out.
3) Seattle. The worst playoff team in NFL history is hosting a game. So weird. How large can they make this spread? Can Seattle possibly, conceivably, dare-I-say win this game?
Let's get to the Wildcard picks:
Saints (11-5) @ Seahawks (7-9)
Predicted Line: NO by 8.5
Actual Line: NO by 10.5
I'm willing to say this is the only time in NFL history that a home team has been double-digit underdogs. But it's also the only time a 7-9 team has made the playoffs, or the first time a team with an impossibly bad point differential of NEGATIVE 97 has gotten in. The rules are stupid. It's undeniable. As John McCain might say, "The system is broken."
But I'm not willing to say Seattle should have missed the playoffs, or that 10-6 Tampa should be in instead. If you win your division, you belong in the playoffs. If they change that, you'd have 10-6 Seattle tied with 10-6 Tampa and Tampa getting in on a tiebreaker and that would be just as bad. You can't fix the fact that a 7-9 team snuck in, you just have to wait for the NFC West to improve. Sam Bradford will help; St. Louis should win at least 9 next year. But what the NFL can do, and should do, and in fact MUST do, is change the way homefield advantage happens. Give it to the team with a better record, plain and simple.
The Saints playing AT Seattle is a travesty. Homefield is a really, really, really big deal. Seattle does NOT deserve homefield advantage against a team that won 4 more games than they did against a much tougher schedule. Enough said.
For this game, I'm actually going against 82% of America and taking the Seahawks. Not to win outright, but to cover the 10.5 points. I doubt they'll get blown out in a home playoff game. I could be wrong. But something tells me they'll make it interesting, or at least watchable.
A few reasons why:
1) New Orleans is struggling to run the ball, and Seattle is pretty good against the run lately since Colin Cole returned from injury. Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are now on IR, which means Julius Jones and Reggie Bush should get 10+ carries each. Neither will do anything. Obviously Brees can move the chains by himself, but a running game would help New Orleans if this is a blowout.
2) Marques Colston is questionable with a knee injury. He says he'll play, but I don't think he'll be near 100%. Brees will certainly spread the ball to Meachem and Moore without missing a beat, but it doesn't help to be without your best receiver.
3) Seattle has a pretty strong home-field advantage. At least they used to, back when Seattle was good. They used to be like Atlanta - the team that could always win at home, but was shaky on the road. Since 2006, Seattle is 4-0 in playoff home games (with wins by 21, 1, 10, and 20) and 0-3 in road playoff games. I think the fans will be excited to have a meaningful game for the first time in 3 years.
4) The Saints don't usually blow out crappy teams. Sean Peyton is 3-9 lifetime against-the-spread as a double-digit favorite. Part of that is because they struggle to run the ball.
For those reasons, and just because I like to be different, I'm taking Seattle +10.5.
Final score: Saints 28, Seahawks 20.
Jets (11-5) @ Colts (10-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: IND by 2.5
What a screwy line. My thought is Vegas is going to avoid even-number spreads in the playoffs so there are no ties. But I'm surprised they didn't lean upwards to IND by 3.5.
I'm conflicted, because I can't stand the Jets and definitely want them to lose, but I don't really like Peyton Manning all that much either. I like watching him lose in the playoffs. It's just fun.
But I refuse to cheer for Rex Ryan, who is trying to steal headlines yet again by calling this game "personal." What, because the Colts knocked you out of the playoffs last year? Welcome to life buddy. Shut your mouth and get ready to coach. Stop trying to monopolize headlines and get your overrated defense ready to face an elite quarterback.
There's a reason Rex has never beat Peyton as a coach or a coordinator, unless you count those week 17 rest-the-starter games. It's simply: Ryan is a blitzing fiend, and Peyton is probably the best quarterback ever against the blitz.
So something's gotta give. Either Ryan sends 4 and hopes to create pressure, or the Jets blitz like mad and the Colts beat them. If Ryan can put his ego and his tendencies aside, the Jets will get this win.
Why? Because it's actually pretty easy to put pressure on the Colts with only 4 pass-rushers. The offensive line is hurt and playing very poorly. Without Collie and Clark, Manning has struggled against zone defenses all season. He can't find his middle-of-the-field receiver, and forces bad throws to Wayne and Garcon, who both have problems with drops. It's been a sloppy offense all season, and they've lacked any semblance of a consistent running game. Addai is finally healthy, but that means next to nothing.
For the Jets, it should also be an offensively-challenged performance. Indy, who is thought to be terrible against the run, has held their past three opponents (Jones-Drew, McFadden, Chris Johnson) to an average of about 56 yards and 3.8 YPC. Whatever they're doing, it's working right now. And the Jets have surprisingly sucked at running the ball, especially lately. Tomlinson is so washed up and for some reason no one will admit it.
It's going to be a lot of pressure on Sanchez to convert third downs, and fortunately for him the Colts' defense is generous in that respect. They allow a 39% third-down conversion rate, one of the worst marks in the AFC. But Sanchez isn't exactly a proven stud yet. I don't have much confidence in him at all.
So what's the pick? Will Ryan blitz Manning and pay the price? Or will he play it smart, and dare the Colts to run? I hate to say it, but I think he'll play it smart. As loud and obnoxious and annoying as he is, you can't deny his will to win, and he might put aside his years of blitzing experience and go with what he knows will work. Against the zone, Manning will struggle.
So I am taking the Jets, who haven't beat a playoff-caliber team since week 2, on the road, against the first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, even though I hate them.
That way, if I miss the pick, at least the Jets are out.
Final Score: Jets 25, Colts 24.
Ravens (12-4) @ Chiefs (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3.5
Actual Line: BAL by 3
So much for my no-even-numbered-spreads theory. Whatever.
This game clearly should be played in Baltimore. Forcing a 12-4 team to play on the road in the playoffs is just insane. Kansas City isn't as vile and undeserving as the Seahawks, but they're close. They only played one team all season who made the playoffs, and that was a 19-9 loss to Indy. (I didn't count Seattle). They went a combined 6-4 against the horrid AFC and NFC Wests, and also beat Buffalo and Cleveland. They have nothing to be proud of. They would be sitting at home if San Diego didn't stupidly start the season 2-5.
I hate picking against Home Dogs, especially ones that have won 7 of their last 8 home games. But like I just said, Kansas City hasn't played anybody. Baltimore is an all-around elite team with just tons and tons of talent. They are well-coached, well-quarerbacked, and they have Ray Lewis. Plus I picked them to win the Super Bowl. So I'm taking the Ravens.
One last reason why: KC is a running team all the way. They led the NFL in rushing yards and attempts. Jamaal Charles had over 1,400 yards. But Baltimore was a top five rushing defense. They were also a top five rushing defense in 2009. And 2008. And 2007. And 2006. In other words, every year since they drafted Haloti Ngata. As much as I love Suh with all my heart, I can't call him the best DT in the league. Not yet. Ngata (ironically pronounced NADA) is just a complete beast. If the Chiefs can't run, they definitely can't win.
Final Score: Ravens 31, Chiefs 7.
Packers (10-6) @ Eagles (10-6)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Like: PHI by 2.5
Geez, trying to guess these lines feels like trying to tackle a squirrel.
This game is going to be awesome. Both of these teams are Super Bowl contenders and have elite quarterbacks with elite weapons. Both teams have meh defenses, although the Packers' defense is much better. This game should just be all-around awesome.
The key to stopping Michael Vick, as the Giants and Vikings have showed us, is speed and athleticism. As Golic says, get an athletic equivalent to chase him around IN THE BACKFIELD. The Giants did that with Antrelle Rolle. The Vikings did it with Winfield. For the Packers, they have the perfect guy in Clay Matthews.
Philly's offensive line is not very good, and they lost a starting guard week 17. Vick should see plenty of pressure, and might be forced into mistakes. Charles Woodson can cover DeSean Jackson, although he might give up a big play due to the large speed advantage. Green Bay isn't tremendous against the run, but Philly doesn't really run the ball all that much. At least not with the running backs.
Typically, the only way to beat Philly is to outscore them. You know they'll put up 30 or more points. Well, for one thing I think Green Bay can outscore them. But for another, I think Green Bay just might have a defense that can shut Vick down.
Last time Green Bay was in the playoffs, you might remember they scored 45 points ... and lost. Well this time they aren't playing the worthless Cardinals defense, but they are playing a 13th ranked defense which is hugely overrated. Philly can't stop the run (remember Jahvid Best), which doesn't really matter since Green Bay can't run. But Philly also stinks against the pass, especially in zone. Rodgers should have plenty of time to throw, and should have no trouble at all figuring out the coverages. Free safety Nate Allen will miss this game, as will LB Stewart Bradley.
I think this game will be a classic, and Rodgers will outduel Vick for his first postseason win.
Final score: Packers 38, Eagles 34.
And that's all I got. stay tuned for whatever else.
go lions.
Monday, January 3, 2011
NFL Draft & My Hatred of Sean Baligan
The best part of the Lions winning their fourth game in a row on Sunday was that it saved us probably close to $25 million dollars.
A loss would have made the Lions 5-11, and had them drafting in the 6th position in April. Last year's #6 overall pick - Russell Okung - signed a 6 year contract worth up to $58 million, with $29 million guaranteed.
But by beating the Favre-less Vikings, Detroit finished 6-10, and because of the strength of schedule tiebreaker they'll draft 13th. A single win moved them up seven positions in the draft. Normally that would be a bad thing, but in the rookie-crazy NFL it's actually a good thing, especially because there wasn't a top 10 prospect that Detroit was dying to get.
Last year's #13 pick, DE Brandon Graham, signed a 5 year deal for $22 million, with just $14 million guaranteed.
6 years and $58 million ... or 5 years and $22 million?
I don't have to be an accountant to tell you that beating Minnesota was a big deal.
The best part of all - Detroit likely would have targeted the same player with the #6 or #13 pick. That would be Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi. He should be available at #13. And the decision should be easy, because elite CBs Patrick Peterson and Prince Nakamura will be gone within the first 10 picks. There will be plenty of available talent remaining on the board at #13, especially in a draft class which is particularly deep at the OLB/DE positions, but my hunch is Detroit takes Carimi and makes him an immediate replacement for Jeff Backus.
Now that the draft order is official, I'll be conjuring up a Mock Draft at some point. But we've got four months to go, and the Kipers and McShays of the world will be busy Mocking the draft into oblivion. In any event, beating the Vikings was huge. As in, $25 million dollars huge.
....
Went 9-7 this week in the picks, despite going 6-2 in the early games. It didn't help that the Bears and Titans surprisingly decided to try, or that Atlanta and San Francisco ran up the score in meaningless blowouts. If I had picked the games straight up this week, I'd have gone 13-3. Oh well...
Season Total: 138-114-4 (54.7%)
Which means of the 10 "experts" on Mlive.com/lions, I picked the NFL regular season better than 9 of them. Only Tom Kowalski beat me, with a 141-111-4 record. Since Tom is the premier Detroit Lions reporter in the entire world, I guess losing to him by 3 games out of 256 is acceptable. I'm pretty happy about beating the other 9 guys. Maybe the GR Press should give me my job back?
As for Sean Baligan, also known as the worst radio host in the history of the world, I outpicked him 138-114-4 to 128-124-4. At least he snuck above .500 in the final week. Good for him. No, really. Honestly. Seriously. Honestly.
Ugh... I know I haven't ranted about this much in the past, but how freaking terrible is the Sean & Terp show on 96.1? It is beyond terrible! It's wretched. It's so bad that I've been compelled on numerous occassions to email and/or call the producers of the show and complain. I've even emailed Sean personally to beg him to stop repeating every sentence fifteen times while inserting the word "honestly" three times per sentence.
In his response, he tried to be charmingly argumenative, but it failed miserably. Just like when he's on the air. He also made some comment about how 'it's not cool to say a guy should lose his job.' Yeah, you're right Sean, it's okay to completely and totally suck at your job. That's what America is all about. Let crappy guys keep their awesome jobs just because they have kids. Bullcrap. Being on the radio isn't your right, it's a privilege. There are a million guys who would love to have your job, and at least 95% of them would be better than you are.
By his logic, I should be allowed to sit at work and bang my head against the desk all day while wearing a toga and screaming obscenities, and not lose my job. Just because I have a family. If I did that, I would actually be better at my job than he is.
Here's the clincher: Sean & Terp is SO painfully bad that I've resolved to listen exclusively to the HUGE show on 107.3 during my afternoon drives home. Do you have any idea how bad the HUGE show is? It's utterly worthless. You can listen to it for 60 minutes straight and not understand a single word. You literally cannot distinguish between the actual show and the commercials, because HUGE does every commercial on that station. It's worse than words can express.
And yet I choose HUGE over Sean & Terp. It's like I'm dying of thirst, and I have to either drink deisel gasoline or my own pee. I choose the gasoline. Can't Grand Rapids find a sports-radio alternative that is at least the equivalent of drinking prune juice? That would be a huge (pun intended) improvement.
...
Stay tuned for NFL playoff picks, and the NBA Top 75 which is nearer to completion. And of course, GO LIONS. They just won 4 straight for the first time since Charlie Batch.
A loss would have made the Lions 5-11, and had them drafting in the 6th position in April. Last year's #6 overall pick - Russell Okung - signed a 6 year contract worth up to $58 million, with $29 million guaranteed.
But by beating the Favre-less Vikings, Detroit finished 6-10, and because of the strength of schedule tiebreaker they'll draft 13th. A single win moved them up seven positions in the draft. Normally that would be a bad thing, but in the rookie-crazy NFL it's actually a good thing, especially because there wasn't a top 10 prospect that Detroit was dying to get.
Last year's #13 pick, DE Brandon Graham, signed a 5 year deal for $22 million, with just $14 million guaranteed.
6 years and $58 million ... or 5 years and $22 million?
I don't have to be an accountant to tell you that beating Minnesota was a big deal.
The best part of all - Detroit likely would have targeted the same player with the #6 or #13 pick. That would be Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi. He should be available at #13. And the decision should be easy, because elite CBs Patrick Peterson and Prince Nakamura will be gone within the first 10 picks. There will be plenty of available talent remaining on the board at #13, especially in a draft class which is particularly deep at the OLB/DE positions, but my hunch is Detroit takes Carimi and makes him an immediate replacement for Jeff Backus.
Now that the draft order is official, I'll be conjuring up a Mock Draft at some point. But we've got four months to go, and the Kipers and McShays of the world will be busy Mocking the draft into oblivion. In any event, beating the Vikings was huge. As in, $25 million dollars huge.
....
Went 9-7 this week in the picks, despite going 6-2 in the early games. It didn't help that the Bears and Titans surprisingly decided to try, or that Atlanta and San Francisco ran up the score in meaningless blowouts. If I had picked the games straight up this week, I'd have gone 13-3. Oh well...
Season Total: 138-114-4 (54.7%)
Which means of the 10 "experts" on Mlive.com/lions, I picked the NFL regular season better than 9 of them. Only Tom Kowalski beat me, with a 141-111-4 record. Since Tom is the premier Detroit Lions reporter in the entire world, I guess losing to him by 3 games out of 256 is acceptable. I'm pretty happy about beating the other 9 guys. Maybe the GR Press should give me my job back?
As for Sean Baligan, also known as the worst radio host in the history of the world, I outpicked him 138-114-4 to 128-124-4. At least he snuck above .500 in the final week. Good for him. No, really. Honestly. Seriously. Honestly.
Ugh... I know I haven't ranted about this much in the past, but how freaking terrible is the Sean & Terp show on 96.1? It is beyond terrible! It's wretched. It's so bad that I've been compelled on numerous occassions to email and/or call the producers of the show and complain. I've even emailed Sean personally to beg him to stop repeating every sentence fifteen times while inserting the word "honestly" three times per sentence.
In his response, he tried to be charmingly argumenative, but it failed miserably. Just like when he's on the air. He also made some comment about how 'it's not cool to say a guy should lose his job.' Yeah, you're right Sean, it's okay to completely and totally suck at your job. That's what America is all about. Let crappy guys keep their awesome jobs just because they have kids. Bullcrap. Being on the radio isn't your right, it's a privilege. There are a million guys who would love to have your job, and at least 95% of them would be better than you are.
By his logic, I should be allowed to sit at work and bang my head against the desk all day while wearing a toga and screaming obscenities, and not lose my job. Just because I have a family. If I did that, I would actually be better at my job than he is.
Here's the clincher: Sean & Terp is SO painfully bad that I've resolved to listen exclusively to the HUGE show on 107.3 during my afternoon drives home. Do you have any idea how bad the HUGE show is? It's utterly worthless. You can listen to it for 60 minutes straight and not understand a single word. You literally cannot distinguish between the actual show and the commercials, because HUGE does every commercial on that station. It's worse than words can express.
And yet I choose HUGE over Sean & Terp. It's like I'm dying of thirst, and I have to either drink deisel gasoline or my own pee. I choose the gasoline. Can't Grand Rapids find a sports-radio alternative that is at least the equivalent of drinking prune juice? That would be a huge (pun intended) improvement.
...
Stay tuned for NFL playoff picks, and the NBA Top 75 which is nearer to completion. And of course, GO LIONS. They just won 4 straight for the first time since Charlie Batch.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Week 17 Picks, and Fantasy Season Wrap Up
Well, it's official. I took down the Cute Little Daisies, 118-93, and won the B league. I'd like to thank Andy for trading me Aaron Rodgers. Couldn't have done it without you!
I finished fourth in the A league (the money league), despite scoring the most overall points. In my ESPN leagues, I won both championships that were decided in week 16 (thank you, Aaron Rodgers & Josh Freeman!!) and am leading 98-74 in one of the championships which will conclude week 17. Remarkably, in the other Championship game I am tied, 206.5 to 206.5. Incredible. Fortunately we have week 17 to break the tie.
For those of you wondering how the score could be 206.5 apiece, it's an IDP league (individual defensive players), and the league also starts a KRS (kick return specialist) and a punter (I know, weird ... you get points for inside the 20, net average, etc). I got a solid 9 points from Suh, who still leads all DTs in fantasy points.
And with that out of the way, here are the sketchy week 17 picks, where I'll try to determine which teams will actually try and which teams are already in offseason mode. Let's start with the Three-In-A-Row Detroit Lions.
Vikings (6-9) @ Lions (5-10)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 3
I should mention, all the games are on Sunday this week. No Thursday, no Monday night, no stupid Tuesday games. Speaking of which, the Vikes are coming off just 4 days of rest.
The big story in this game, obviously, is whether Brett Favre will lace up the ol' gunslingin' shoes one last time, or stay home and begrudgingly send a $50,000 check to the Commish.
Sidenote: Favre's fine is the equivalent of me being fined $67 dollars, if you divide out the same percentage. Can you imagine? I sexually harass a coworker, and after months of deliberation they decide to fine me $67 dollars??? What a world we live in. Favre should have been fined $4 million and suspended without pay. That would be justice. And frankly, I'm not even convinced he did anything wrong. But what's the point of fining a man .25% of his salary? No wonder Jenn Sterger's attorney said the fine was: "An affront to women."
Anyway, the truth is that Brett Favre is highly unlikely to play. Make no mistake, he wants to. But I don't think he can. And Minnesota would rather see Joe Webb anyway. The guy outplayed Michael Vick a couple days ago, so you might as well see what he can do. Let's just make it official: Favre is done. Career=over.
So this game is intriguing because both teams should (emphasis on should) by trying. The Vikings have a coach and a QB who are essentially auditioning for their own jobs. And the Lions are trying to finish the season on a 4 game winning streak, something we haven't done since 1999 (when Charlie Batch was throwing to Johnnie Morton - remember we started that year 6-2, but then lost our final four games to miss the playoffs?).
A four game winning streak would be unbelievable, considering they had a 4-40 stretch from 2007-2010. I know it's four meaningless games at the end of a meaningless season, but actually, not really. Not at all. They are playing for confidence which will seep into next year's mindset. They are playing to inspire the players to believe they can actually be winners. And most importantly, they are playing to keep Megatron. Remember, the more we lose, the more likely we lose our best player.
So this game, presumably, means a lot to both teams. It surely means a great deal to both coaches. A lot of coaches know they're going to be fired (John Fox, Marvin Lewis) and others think they'll probably be fired (Norv Turner, Gary Kubiak) and some aren't sure either way (Jeff Fisher, Tony Sparano, Eric Studesville). But for Schwartz and Frazier, this game is monumentally important for their own confidence and competitiveness going into next year. I don't like Schwartz as an X's and O's coach, but you can't deny the man's will to win. I think he'll have the team ready to compete.
What scares me the most is the 3 point spread. I love picking the Lions (especially lately) as an underdog, but as a favorite? That's a little risky. Don't forget, these Vikings have other-worldly talent at the RB, DT, and DE positions, and pretty dang good players at WR, LB, and CB. Aside from Favre, they haven't really been hit by injuries. And I sure don't think Peterson and Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield want to end the season by losing to the lowly Lions and finishing tied for worst place in the NFC North.
Matchup to worry about:
Backus against Jared Allen. A pure mismatch. But on the positive side, this might be the last game we see Jeff Backus start at left tackle after 159 straight starts. (Coincidentally, the Lions are 38-121 in those games). I cannot wait to hear the words: "The Detroit Lions select ... Gabe Carimi, tackle, University of Wisconsin."
Matchup to like:
Calvin Johnson against Winfield. Not only does Megatron have more speed, more power, and better leaping ability, he's also got 8 inches on him. The Vikings always struggle to stop Calvin. Hopefully this mismatch opens up the running game for the suddenly spry Jahvid Best.
Speaking of Best, I've noticed something that is glaringly obvious, but seems to slip the mind of Scott Linehan: Jahvid Best can't run between the tackles!! My contention is that if they used Best on outside runs and Morris through the middle, instead of vice versa, it just might work!!
The counterargument - it would make the Lions too predictable. Defenses would always see it coming. But what's worse? To be predictable, or to suck?
This game will be a huge litmus test to see if the Lions are actually making progress towards becoming a winning football team. In the last 22 meetings with the Vikings, Detroit's only won once. (Technically twice, if you remember that bogus pass interference call week 6, 2008). But it's time to start beating division rivals. It's time to make teams take Detroit seriously. And for crying out loud, it's the Vikings third string quarterback on 4 days rest!
I'll go with Detroit, 24-20.
**Update -
1) Starting CB Chris Houston is OUT for the Lions.
2) Calvin Johnson is questionable. Even if he does play, he'll be about 50%.
3) The line has moved from DET by 3 to DET by 3.5
For those 3 reasons, I feel inclined to change my pick to the Vikings. However, I'm not going to turn my back on the Lions during a three-game winning streak. So the pick stands. But my confidence level has plummeted.
Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 3.5
The logic - keep all the lines low this week, because who knows which starters will play, which starters will sit, and which teams will completely fold.
Kansas City is assured a playoff spot, so why risk the health of the starters? Of course, Todd Haley has assured everyone that Cassel, Charles, Bowe and the rest of the gang will start and play. But if I know anything, it's this: coaches are liars. Charles only carried the ball 13 times in last week's blowout. Why overwork him in a meaningless game? Oakland doesn't have anything to play for, and neither does KC. If I were the oddsmakers, I would have kept this line under 3.
This is a total shot-in-the-dark pick. I guess the safer bet is the home team, even though I wish the line were lower.
Bucs (9-6) @ Saints (11-4)
Predicted Line: NO by 6
Actual Line: NO by 7.5
The Buccaneers haven't lost by more than 7 points in 2 months ... since the last time they played the Saints. New Orleans put up 31 against them in Tampa, and that was against the starting defense. Now, the 4 best defenders are hurt and Tampa travels to the raucous Superdome. Should be a blowout, right?
So why am I taking Tampa Bay?
For one thing, Josh Freeman is playing the best football of his life right now, with a flawless performance last week against Seattle. Granted, Seattle sucks, but still. Tampa can maybe keep up with the Saints.
Secondly, the only reason New Orleans would try in this game is to earn a first round bye. That happens if and only if Atlanta loses to Carolina, which they know is highly unlikely. My hunch is that some fancy executive in a fancy suit has the job of watching the Falcons game in a fancy booth, and calling Sean Peyton at some point in the third quarter and saying "Okay, Atlanta's up by 27, go ahead and pull Brees."
I want that guy's job.
And I'll take Tampa, who keeps their playoff hopes alive. Now all they need is Green Bay AND the Giants to lose.
Panthers (2-13) @ Falcons (12-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by .... hmm .... 7?
Actual Line: ATL by 14.5
Oh my goodness. Apparently the oddsmarkers really think Atlanta's going to go all out in this game. I guess they do need to win to secure a bye. But their backups should be able to beat Carolina easily, right?
I'm taking the Panthers to cover. They can run the ball decently well and might be able to control the clock early and keep the score low. 14 points is a lot for a game that might be meaningless.
Interesting sub-story: this is probably Jimmy Claussen's last start as a Panther. It's at least 94% likely that Carolina drafts Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick in April. There's a 4% chance that Luck stays at Stanford, a 1% chance that Carolina stupidly sticks with Claussen, and a 1% chance that Claussen hires some goons to break Luck's knee with a crowbar.
My prediction: Luck is next year's Sam Bradford, and leads Carolina to a 9-7 record. Claussen rides the bench, and is traded to the Cardinals following the 2011 season. Why the Cardinals? Because they'll need a backup for Donovan McNabb, who keeps getting injured.
Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (5-10)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8.5
Actual Line: PIT by 5.5
Dang, I just realized I whiffed on this line because of Polamalu's injury. He might be the only defensive player in the NFL who swings a line by 3 points.
But this game should be all Pittsburgh. They need to win to secure the first-round bye, and unless Baltimore is being blown out by the Bengals early, Pittsburgh can't rest any starters.
One of the keys to this game is Peyton Hillis's ribs. He's questionable, leaning towards unlikely. No use getting your star running back hurt in week 17. It would be wise to sit him. And if Hillis sits, Colt McCoy is going to have a long day against the Steelers blitzing fiends. They won't miss Polamalu too much because Cleveland has no receivers.
And doesn't it kind of seem like Roethlisberger is due for a big 3 TD game? I'll take Pittsburgh to win, 27-14.
Bengals (4-11) @ Ravens (11-4)
Predicted Line: BAL by 10.5
Actual Line: BAL by 10
This could be similar to the Saints situation, where someone calls down to the sideline and lets Harbaugh know that the Steelers are up big and it's time to pull the starters. Unless Pittsburgh loses, Baltimore is a Wildcard.
For that reason, and because Carson Palmer seems to be playing a lot harder now that TO and Ocho are gone, I'm taking the Bengals. 10 points in another potentially meaningless game? I think Vegas is going to lose a lot of money this week. Wait ... nope 54% of betting is on Baltimore. Never mind.
Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (13-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 11.5
Actual Line: NE by 3.5
Really? Bill Belichick is going to rest his starters?
Consider me skeptical. That guy has no soul. And even if he does, Miami looks completely uninterested in playing football right now, especially in freezing temperatures against a hostile crowd. Not to mention this will likely be Chad Henne's last start as a Dolphin, and the running game is awful.
But like I said, the starters will start. Brady will do his thing. He'll put a stranglehold on the MVP chatter (if he hasn't already) with 3 TDs and no INTs in the first half, and then he'll sit. Miami won't exactly mount a comeback. Pats win 27-13, and Brady finishes the season with 37 TDs and 4 INTs - one of the best seasons in NFL history.
Bills (4-11) @ Jets (10-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: NYJ by 1
The Jets are the 6 seed unless they win, the Ravens win, and the Steelers lose. Chances of that happening: 5%. And all that does is bump them up to the 5 seed, which means they'll play the Colts instead of the Chiefs, unless the Chiefs lose and Colts win, but either way, it doesn't matter. The only advantage in winning this game for the Jets is it might mean they don't have to play the Patriots until the AFC Championship. But is playing Pittsburgh really a much better option?
Nah, I think Sexy Rexy will sit his starters, especially the ailing Sanchez, and probably Revis and Scott and Harris as well.
The question, though, is: are the Jets backups better than the Bills starters? Plus, the Bills might actually want to lose (subconsciously of course) so they get a better draft pick, and can take Patrick Peterson #2. And let's not get carried away with the Sanchez talk - Mark Brunnel is capable. He's thrown for 32,000 yards in his career. And all he has to do is hand the ball to the third string RB a bunch of times. The Jets are deep. Cotchery and Brad Smith are the backup WRs, and they could start for plenty of teams. They won't struggle to score on the Bills. I actually like the Jets backups to win big.
Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (5-10)
Predicted Line: SF by 7
Actual Line: SF by 6
Ah, what a game. 49ers interim coach Jim Tomsula (who earned his reputation coaching the defensive line of the Scottish Claymores) against Cardinals third string QB John Skelton, the rookie from Fordham who was MVP of the Liberty Cup Bowl game last season.
This should be stunning.
I'll go with Arizona. Not sure why San Fran keeps getting favored by such high margins when their point differential is (-72) this year.
Chargers (8-7) @ Broncos (4-11)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3.5
Neither of these teams have anything to play for, right?
What about pride? (Cue the sappy music). Phillip Rivers nearly had an MVP season, and only missed the playoffs because his team might have the worst special teams in the history of sports. And Tim Tebow ... has the HEART ... of a CHAMPION!!!!
Sorry. I don't know ... I'm going to take Denver, and assume that San Diego just doesn't give a damn about this game.
Jags (8-7) @ Texans (5-10)
Predicted Line: JAC by 4
Actual Line: JAC by 2.5
Last week, Mo-Jo missed the game and Garrard played. This week, it's reversed. Jones-Drew will play, but it also appears that Trent Edwards will start at quarterback for Jacksonville. Don't they realize that they could still make the playoffs?? Why are they benching their starting quarterback in a must-win week 17 game??? He doesn't have a broken leg, he has a freaking broken finger!! Kobe Bryant's been playing with a broken finger for two seasons. Tough it up Garrard!
I'm taking Houston for three reasons:
1) The only reason Jacksonville is favored is because they need to win this game, and fans assume they'll try harder. Not necessarily true. This line should be HOU by a point.
2) Trent Edwards absolutely sucks.
3) Gary Kubiak is playing for his coaching job more than anyone else this week, except maybe Rich Rodriguez. Everyone knows he should be fired, but Houston sort of loves him. If he can beat up the Jags and win a meaningful game, it just might save his job.
Remember, teams that NEED to win aren't necessarily very good in the first place.
Titans (6-9) @ Colts (9-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 7.5
Actual Line: IND by 10
Wow. When Peyton Manning needs to win, he really gets public support. A ten point spread? That's insane, considering Indy hasn't blown a team out since week 2.
But that being said, I'm taking the Colts just like 80% of the world. Not so much because they need to win, but because Tennessee stinks. They didn't try at all last week, and likely won't try again. Plus, despite all the talk about how "Indy can't stop the run," they held their last two opponents to an average of 75 rushing yards and 3.5 YPC. That was Jones-Drew and McFadden. They should be able to slow down Chris Johnson as well. Speaking of CJ2K ...
Remember back in August, when he declared his goal for this season was to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Turns out he shouldn't have said that, because Dickerson wasn't too excited about his record being treated lightly. But there's still a chance -all Sonic needs is to rush for 780 yards against the Colts.
Giants (9-6) @ Redskins (6-9)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4
Actual Line: NYG by 4
Two weeks in a row, Philly screwed the Giants. Last week they had the now-famous comeback which culminated in a crazy punt return. But on Tuesday, they hurt the Giants again by getting blown out by the Vikings. Why is this significant? Because it locked up the #2 seed for Chicago, which means the Bears will rest the starters in Lambeau, which means Green Bay should win easily, and if Green Bay wins the Giants are out, as are the Bucs. So really, a Giants win here only matters if the Packers also lose.
But that doesn't mean the G-Men won't bring it, and this is a case where the team that needs to win actually is good. They've just had some bad luck, a brutal schedule, and tons of turnovers. Against Rex Grossman and the schizophrenic Redskins, they should get back on track. I think they'll win big. Washington's offensive line is no match for Tuck and Co. And you've got the 25th ranked rushing defense against the 5th ranked rushing offense.
Giants 30-10. Shanahan fired?
Bears (11-4) @ Packers (9-6)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 10
As I mentioned, the Eagles' loss makes the Bears the #2 seed. This game means nothing to them. Unless the Falcons and Saints lose, in which case a win makes Chicago the #1 seed and gives them homefield throughout. Since those games are at 1:00 and this game is at 4:15, they'll know by kickoff whether or not to try. Chances of Atlanta losing to Carolina are miniscule. So let's just assume Chicago rests Cutler, Forte, Peppers, Urlacher, and the rest of the important players.
I know Chicago and Green Bay have a fierce rivalry, and some people are using that argument to say Chicago should play their starters. But Lovie Smith is not Bill Belichick. The two times Lovie had a bye clinched in week 17 he lost by 24 and 19. He's not going to risk losing his stars for the playoffs.
And guess what? Even if the Bears were playing full force, I'd still take Green Bay -10. They are a much, much better team. Did you see Aaron Rodgers last week? That might have been the best game of his career. Green Bay is the Playoff Darkhorse.
Cowboys (5-10) @ Eagles (10-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
The Eagles have the 3 seed. Nothing can change that.
Andy Reid is the only honest coach in the NFL, apparently: he's already announced that Vick, McCoy, Maclin, Jackson, Peters, Samuel, Cole, Patterson, and Mikell will sit on the bench and watch. No mind games. No nonsense. Just a solid answer.
I'd like to thank Andy for making this pick easy for me. As much as I like Kevin Kolb, the prospect of him passing to Riley Cooper and Clay Harbor doesn't excite me. Dallas will try, because they like their coach, and they'll win easily. I feel bad for Philly fans who attend this game.
Side story: did you know that Dallas's starting QB for this game will be Stephen McGee? I didn't. I knew Kitna got hurt last week, but for some reason never bothered to check who the 3rd string guy was. Turns out McGee, who sounds like a black guy but is actually extremely white, is pretty good. He was 11 for 17 last week with a TD and no turnovers. He'll be auditioning for the role of Tony Romo's 2011 backup.
**Update: line has been changed to PHI by 6.5. I'm not sure why. Probably because of Stephen McGee. I'm still going with the Cowboys.
Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (6-9)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 3
Why are the Rams favored on the road in Seattle in this must-win game for the NFC West (*ahem) 'Championship' and the right to be clobbered by the Saints? Because, Matt Hasselbeck has a strained hip and will sit out. Charlie Whitehurst is just not good at all. Sucks to be a Seattle fan. First the Sonics left, now this. At least they have the only baseball team in the AL to lose 100 games.
I am all over the Rams, for just so many reasons.
-They are a better team
-I hate Pete Carroll
-I love Sam Bradford
-I just would hate to see a 7-9 team make the playoffs.
Prediction: Seattle loses, cuts Hasselbeck this summer, and begins 2011 with none other than Carson Palmer starting at quarterback. Only question in my mind is whether or not they get Matt Leinart as the backup.
Enjoy week 17 everyone and as always, Go Lions!
I finished fourth in the A league (the money league), despite scoring the most overall points. In my ESPN leagues, I won both championships that were decided in week 16 (thank you, Aaron Rodgers & Josh Freeman!!) and am leading 98-74 in one of the championships which will conclude week 17. Remarkably, in the other Championship game I am tied, 206.5 to 206.5. Incredible. Fortunately we have week 17 to break the tie.
For those of you wondering how the score could be 206.5 apiece, it's an IDP league (individual defensive players), and the league also starts a KRS (kick return specialist) and a punter (I know, weird ... you get points for inside the 20, net average, etc). I got a solid 9 points from Suh, who still leads all DTs in fantasy points.
And with that out of the way, here are the sketchy week 17 picks, where I'll try to determine which teams will actually try and which teams are already in offseason mode. Let's start with the Three-In-A-Row Detroit Lions.
Vikings (6-9) @ Lions (5-10)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 3
I should mention, all the games are on Sunday this week. No Thursday, no Monday night, no stupid Tuesday games. Speaking of which, the Vikes are coming off just 4 days of rest.
The big story in this game, obviously, is whether Brett Favre will lace up the ol' gunslingin' shoes one last time, or stay home and begrudgingly send a $50,000 check to the Commish.
Sidenote: Favre's fine is the equivalent of me being fined $67 dollars, if you divide out the same percentage. Can you imagine? I sexually harass a coworker, and after months of deliberation they decide to fine me $67 dollars??? What a world we live in. Favre should have been fined $4 million and suspended without pay. That would be justice. And frankly, I'm not even convinced he did anything wrong. But what's the point of fining a man .25% of his salary? No wonder Jenn Sterger's attorney said the fine was: "An affront to women."
Anyway, the truth is that Brett Favre is highly unlikely to play. Make no mistake, he wants to. But I don't think he can. And Minnesota would rather see Joe Webb anyway. The guy outplayed Michael Vick a couple days ago, so you might as well see what he can do. Let's just make it official: Favre is done. Career=over.
So this game is intriguing because both teams should (emphasis on should) by trying. The Vikings have a coach and a QB who are essentially auditioning for their own jobs. And the Lions are trying to finish the season on a 4 game winning streak, something we haven't done since 1999 (when Charlie Batch was throwing to Johnnie Morton - remember we started that year 6-2, but then lost our final four games to miss the playoffs?).
A four game winning streak would be unbelievable, considering they had a 4-40 stretch from 2007-2010. I know it's four meaningless games at the end of a meaningless season, but actually, not really. Not at all. They are playing for confidence which will seep into next year's mindset. They are playing to inspire the players to believe they can actually be winners. And most importantly, they are playing to keep Megatron. Remember, the more we lose, the more likely we lose our best player.
So this game, presumably, means a lot to both teams. It surely means a great deal to both coaches. A lot of coaches know they're going to be fired (John Fox, Marvin Lewis) and others think they'll probably be fired (Norv Turner, Gary Kubiak) and some aren't sure either way (Jeff Fisher, Tony Sparano, Eric Studesville). But for Schwartz and Frazier, this game is monumentally important for their own confidence and competitiveness going into next year. I don't like Schwartz as an X's and O's coach, but you can't deny the man's will to win. I think he'll have the team ready to compete.
What scares me the most is the 3 point spread. I love picking the Lions (especially lately) as an underdog, but as a favorite? That's a little risky. Don't forget, these Vikings have other-worldly talent at the RB, DT, and DE positions, and pretty dang good players at WR, LB, and CB. Aside from Favre, they haven't really been hit by injuries. And I sure don't think Peterson and Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield want to end the season by losing to the lowly Lions and finishing tied for worst place in the NFC North.
Matchup to worry about:
Backus against Jared Allen. A pure mismatch. But on the positive side, this might be the last game we see Jeff Backus start at left tackle after 159 straight starts. (Coincidentally, the Lions are 38-121 in those games). I cannot wait to hear the words: "The Detroit Lions select ... Gabe Carimi, tackle, University of Wisconsin."
Matchup to like:
Calvin Johnson against Winfield. Not only does Megatron have more speed, more power, and better leaping ability, he's also got 8 inches on him. The Vikings always struggle to stop Calvin. Hopefully this mismatch opens up the running game for the suddenly spry Jahvid Best.
Speaking of Best, I've noticed something that is glaringly obvious, but seems to slip the mind of Scott Linehan: Jahvid Best can't run between the tackles!! My contention is that if they used Best on outside runs and Morris through the middle, instead of vice versa, it just might work!!
The counterargument - it would make the Lions too predictable. Defenses would always see it coming. But what's worse? To be predictable, or to suck?
This game will be a huge litmus test to see if the Lions are actually making progress towards becoming a winning football team. In the last 22 meetings with the Vikings, Detroit's only won once. (Technically twice, if you remember that bogus pass interference call week 6, 2008). But it's time to start beating division rivals. It's time to make teams take Detroit seriously. And for crying out loud, it's the Vikings third string quarterback on 4 days rest!
I'll go with Detroit, 24-20.
**Update -
1) Starting CB Chris Houston is OUT for the Lions.
2) Calvin Johnson is questionable. Even if he does play, he'll be about 50%.
3) The line has moved from DET by 3 to DET by 3.5
For those 3 reasons, I feel inclined to change my pick to the Vikings. However, I'm not going to turn my back on the Lions during a three-game winning streak. So the pick stands. But my confidence level has plummeted.
Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 3.5
The logic - keep all the lines low this week, because who knows which starters will play, which starters will sit, and which teams will completely fold.
Kansas City is assured a playoff spot, so why risk the health of the starters? Of course, Todd Haley has assured everyone that Cassel, Charles, Bowe and the rest of the gang will start and play. But if I know anything, it's this: coaches are liars. Charles only carried the ball 13 times in last week's blowout. Why overwork him in a meaningless game? Oakland doesn't have anything to play for, and neither does KC. If I were the oddsmakers, I would have kept this line under 3.
This is a total shot-in-the-dark pick. I guess the safer bet is the home team, even though I wish the line were lower.
Bucs (9-6) @ Saints (11-4)
Predicted Line: NO by 6
Actual Line: NO by 7.5
The Buccaneers haven't lost by more than 7 points in 2 months ... since the last time they played the Saints. New Orleans put up 31 against them in Tampa, and that was against the starting defense. Now, the 4 best defenders are hurt and Tampa travels to the raucous Superdome. Should be a blowout, right?
So why am I taking Tampa Bay?
For one thing, Josh Freeman is playing the best football of his life right now, with a flawless performance last week against Seattle. Granted, Seattle sucks, but still. Tampa can maybe keep up with the Saints.
Secondly, the only reason New Orleans would try in this game is to earn a first round bye. That happens if and only if Atlanta loses to Carolina, which they know is highly unlikely. My hunch is that some fancy executive in a fancy suit has the job of watching the Falcons game in a fancy booth, and calling Sean Peyton at some point in the third quarter and saying "Okay, Atlanta's up by 27, go ahead and pull Brees."
I want that guy's job.
And I'll take Tampa, who keeps their playoff hopes alive. Now all they need is Green Bay AND the Giants to lose.
Panthers (2-13) @ Falcons (12-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by .... hmm .... 7?
Actual Line: ATL by 14.5
Oh my goodness. Apparently the oddsmarkers really think Atlanta's going to go all out in this game. I guess they do need to win to secure a bye. But their backups should be able to beat Carolina easily, right?
I'm taking the Panthers to cover. They can run the ball decently well and might be able to control the clock early and keep the score low. 14 points is a lot for a game that might be meaningless.
Interesting sub-story: this is probably Jimmy Claussen's last start as a Panther. It's at least 94% likely that Carolina drafts Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick in April. There's a 4% chance that Luck stays at Stanford, a 1% chance that Carolina stupidly sticks with Claussen, and a 1% chance that Claussen hires some goons to break Luck's knee with a crowbar.
My prediction: Luck is next year's Sam Bradford, and leads Carolina to a 9-7 record. Claussen rides the bench, and is traded to the Cardinals following the 2011 season. Why the Cardinals? Because they'll need a backup for Donovan McNabb, who keeps getting injured.
Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (5-10)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8.5
Actual Line: PIT by 5.5
Dang, I just realized I whiffed on this line because of Polamalu's injury. He might be the only defensive player in the NFL who swings a line by 3 points.
But this game should be all Pittsburgh. They need to win to secure the first-round bye, and unless Baltimore is being blown out by the Bengals early, Pittsburgh can't rest any starters.
One of the keys to this game is Peyton Hillis's ribs. He's questionable, leaning towards unlikely. No use getting your star running back hurt in week 17. It would be wise to sit him. And if Hillis sits, Colt McCoy is going to have a long day against the Steelers blitzing fiends. They won't miss Polamalu too much because Cleveland has no receivers.
And doesn't it kind of seem like Roethlisberger is due for a big 3 TD game? I'll take Pittsburgh to win, 27-14.
Bengals (4-11) @ Ravens (11-4)
Predicted Line: BAL by 10.5
Actual Line: BAL by 10
This could be similar to the Saints situation, where someone calls down to the sideline and lets Harbaugh know that the Steelers are up big and it's time to pull the starters. Unless Pittsburgh loses, Baltimore is a Wildcard.
For that reason, and because Carson Palmer seems to be playing a lot harder now that TO and Ocho are gone, I'm taking the Bengals. 10 points in another potentially meaningless game? I think Vegas is going to lose a lot of money this week. Wait ... nope 54% of betting is on Baltimore. Never mind.
Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (13-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 11.5
Actual Line: NE by 3.5
Really? Bill Belichick is going to rest his starters?
Consider me skeptical. That guy has no soul. And even if he does, Miami looks completely uninterested in playing football right now, especially in freezing temperatures against a hostile crowd. Not to mention this will likely be Chad Henne's last start as a Dolphin, and the running game is awful.
But like I said, the starters will start. Brady will do his thing. He'll put a stranglehold on the MVP chatter (if he hasn't already) with 3 TDs and no INTs in the first half, and then he'll sit. Miami won't exactly mount a comeback. Pats win 27-13, and Brady finishes the season with 37 TDs and 4 INTs - one of the best seasons in NFL history.
Bills (4-11) @ Jets (10-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: NYJ by 1
The Jets are the 6 seed unless they win, the Ravens win, and the Steelers lose. Chances of that happening: 5%. And all that does is bump them up to the 5 seed, which means they'll play the Colts instead of the Chiefs, unless the Chiefs lose and Colts win, but either way, it doesn't matter. The only advantage in winning this game for the Jets is it might mean they don't have to play the Patriots until the AFC Championship. But is playing Pittsburgh really a much better option?
Nah, I think Sexy Rexy will sit his starters, especially the ailing Sanchez, and probably Revis and Scott and Harris as well.
The question, though, is: are the Jets backups better than the Bills starters? Plus, the Bills might actually want to lose (subconsciously of course) so they get a better draft pick, and can take Patrick Peterson #2. And let's not get carried away with the Sanchez talk - Mark Brunnel is capable. He's thrown for 32,000 yards in his career. And all he has to do is hand the ball to the third string RB a bunch of times. The Jets are deep. Cotchery and Brad Smith are the backup WRs, and they could start for plenty of teams. They won't struggle to score on the Bills. I actually like the Jets backups to win big.
Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (5-10)
Predicted Line: SF by 7
Actual Line: SF by 6
Ah, what a game. 49ers interim coach Jim Tomsula (who earned his reputation coaching the defensive line of the Scottish Claymores) against Cardinals third string QB John Skelton, the rookie from Fordham who was MVP of the Liberty Cup Bowl game last season.
This should be stunning.
I'll go with Arizona. Not sure why San Fran keeps getting favored by such high margins when their point differential is (-72) this year.
Chargers (8-7) @ Broncos (4-11)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3.5
Neither of these teams have anything to play for, right?
What about pride? (Cue the sappy music). Phillip Rivers nearly had an MVP season, and only missed the playoffs because his team might have the worst special teams in the history of sports. And Tim Tebow ... has the HEART ... of a CHAMPION!!!!
Sorry. I don't know ... I'm going to take Denver, and assume that San Diego just doesn't give a damn about this game.
Jags (8-7) @ Texans (5-10)
Predicted Line: JAC by 4
Actual Line: JAC by 2.5
Last week, Mo-Jo missed the game and Garrard played. This week, it's reversed. Jones-Drew will play, but it also appears that Trent Edwards will start at quarterback for Jacksonville. Don't they realize that they could still make the playoffs?? Why are they benching their starting quarterback in a must-win week 17 game??? He doesn't have a broken leg, he has a freaking broken finger!! Kobe Bryant's been playing with a broken finger for two seasons. Tough it up Garrard!
I'm taking Houston for three reasons:
1) The only reason Jacksonville is favored is because they need to win this game, and fans assume they'll try harder. Not necessarily true. This line should be HOU by a point.
2) Trent Edwards absolutely sucks.
3) Gary Kubiak is playing for his coaching job more than anyone else this week, except maybe Rich Rodriguez. Everyone knows he should be fired, but Houston sort of loves him. If he can beat up the Jags and win a meaningful game, it just might save his job.
Remember, teams that NEED to win aren't necessarily very good in the first place.
Titans (6-9) @ Colts (9-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 7.5
Actual Line: IND by 10
Wow. When Peyton Manning needs to win, he really gets public support. A ten point spread? That's insane, considering Indy hasn't blown a team out since week 2.
But that being said, I'm taking the Colts just like 80% of the world. Not so much because they need to win, but because Tennessee stinks. They didn't try at all last week, and likely won't try again. Plus, despite all the talk about how "Indy can't stop the run," they held their last two opponents to an average of 75 rushing yards and 3.5 YPC. That was Jones-Drew and McFadden. They should be able to slow down Chris Johnson as well. Speaking of CJ2K ...
Remember back in August, when he declared his goal for this season was to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Turns out he shouldn't have said that, because Dickerson wasn't too excited about his record being treated lightly. But there's still a chance -all Sonic needs is to rush for 780 yards against the Colts.
Giants (9-6) @ Redskins (6-9)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4
Actual Line: NYG by 4
Two weeks in a row, Philly screwed the Giants. Last week they had the now-famous comeback which culminated in a crazy punt return. But on Tuesday, they hurt the Giants again by getting blown out by the Vikings. Why is this significant? Because it locked up the #2 seed for Chicago, which means the Bears will rest the starters in Lambeau, which means Green Bay should win easily, and if Green Bay wins the Giants are out, as are the Bucs. So really, a Giants win here only matters if the Packers also lose.
But that doesn't mean the G-Men won't bring it, and this is a case where the team that needs to win actually is good. They've just had some bad luck, a brutal schedule, and tons of turnovers. Against Rex Grossman and the schizophrenic Redskins, they should get back on track. I think they'll win big. Washington's offensive line is no match for Tuck and Co. And you've got the 25th ranked rushing defense against the 5th ranked rushing offense.
Giants 30-10. Shanahan fired?
Bears (11-4) @ Packers (9-6)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 10
As I mentioned, the Eagles' loss makes the Bears the #2 seed. This game means nothing to them. Unless the Falcons and Saints lose, in which case a win makes Chicago the #1 seed and gives them homefield throughout. Since those games are at 1:00 and this game is at 4:15, they'll know by kickoff whether or not to try. Chances of Atlanta losing to Carolina are miniscule. So let's just assume Chicago rests Cutler, Forte, Peppers, Urlacher, and the rest of the important players.
I know Chicago and Green Bay have a fierce rivalry, and some people are using that argument to say Chicago should play their starters. But Lovie Smith is not Bill Belichick. The two times Lovie had a bye clinched in week 17 he lost by 24 and 19. He's not going to risk losing his stars for the playoffs.
And guess what? Even if the Bears were playing full force, I'd still take Green Bay -10. They are a much, much better team. Did you see Aaron Rodgers last week? That might have been the best game of his career. Green Bay is the Playoff Darkhorse.
Cowboys (5-10) @ Eagles (10-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
The Eagles have the 3 seed. Nothing can change that.
Andy Reid is the only honest coach in the NFL, apparently: he's already announced that Vick, McCoy, Maclin, Jackson, Peters, Samuel, Cole, Patterson, and Mikell will sit on the bench and watch. No mind games. No nonsense. Just a solid answer.
I'd like to thank Andy for making this pick easy for me. As much as I like Kevin Kolb, the prospect of him passing to Riley Cooper and Clay Harbor doesn't excite me. Dallas will try, because they like their coach, and they'll win easily. I feel bad for Philly fans who attend this game.
Side story: did you know that Dallas's starting QB for this game will be Stephen McGee? I didn't. I knew Kitna got hurt last week, but for some reason never bothered to check who the 3rd string guy was. Turns out McGee, who sounds like a black guy but is actually extremely white, is pretty good. He was 11 for 17 last week with a TD and no turnovers. He'll be auditioning for the role of Tony Romo's 2011 backup.
**Update: line has been changed to PHI by 6.5. I'm not sure why. Probably because of Stephen McGee. I'm still going with the Cowboys.
Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (6-9)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 3
Why are the Rams favored on the road in Seattle in this must-win game for the NFC West (*ahem) 'Championship' and the right to be clobbered by the Saints? Because, Matt Hasselbeck has a strained hip and will sit out. Charlie Whitehurst is just not good at all. Sucks to be a Seattle fan. First the Sonics left, now this. At least they have the only baseball team in the AL to lose 100 games.
I am all over the Rams, for just so many reasons.
-They are a better team
-I hate Pete Carroll
-I love Sam Bradford
-I just would hate to see a 7-9 team make the playoffs.
Prediction: Seattle loses, cuts Hasselbeck this summer, and begins 2011 with none other than Carson Palmer starting at quarterback. Only question in my mind is whether or not they get Matt Leinart as the backup.
Enjoy week 17 everyone and as always, Go Lions!
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
The Pro Bowl is Stupid
Remember a couple seasons ago, when Allen Iverson was an All Star despite being only the seventh best player on his own crappy team? He scored 5 points a game off the bench, faked multiple injuries, and missed 63% of his shots. Yet he started in the All Star game, ahead of guys who were scoring 22 a night and leading their teams to the playoffs. That's what the NFL is quickly becomming. A joke. Yesterday, the Pro Bowl rosters were announced. And they made me cringe.
Just like in the NBA, making the Pro Bowl has nothing to do with your performance. It used to, a couple seasons ago, but apparently those days are done. Now it's a freakin popularity contest.
The only reason it upsets me is because players' legacies are at stake. When Iverson retires, they'll call him an "11 time All Star," when really they should say "he played about 6 great seasons, 2 mediocre seasons, and then he sucked the life out of his teammates for 3 years." He'll make the Hall of Fame because of his many All Star appearances, even though the last 4 of them were a farce!
Now it's happening in the NFL. Guys made the Pro Bowl simply because of the size of their name. I'm surprised Favre and his sub-70 passer rating didn't make it. It's unbelievable.
No wonder it's so hard to predict the NFL during the preseason. You look at the Cowboys and say "Wow, this team has five Pro Bowl starters! They must be good!"
But Gurode and Ratliff had HORRENDOUS seasons. You could argue that Andre Gurode was the worst offensive lineman in the entire NFL. His bone-headed penalties cost the Cowboys not one, but two games! And he's starting in the Pro Bowl?? Those morons made the team for one reason: because they have a big blue star on their helmet. Jason Witten and DeMarcus Ware had pretty good seasons, but they shouldn't be starting ahead of Vernon Davis and Justin Tuck. Even the Cowboys' punter made the team! What a stupid outrage!
The Cowboys have more Pro Bowlers than the entire NFC West!! Okay, maybe that's not a good example...
Around this time, each and every year, the pundits and analysts love to talk about one topic above all topics: Pro Bowl Snubs! It gets people reaaally riled up. Their faces turn red as they read impressive stats and complain about their favorite player missing the team. I did it a couple years ago when Calvin Johnson was snubbed despite being the best receiver in the NFC, statistically and in real-life.
But this year ... what's the point? I mean, I could moan about how Dominic Raiola deserves the Pro Bowl over Gurode, or how Stefan Logan should have made it instead of Hester, or how Kyle VandenBosch could have made the team ahead of Justin Smith or Ware. But why? It's not going to change the stupid system.
But here's what really bugs me: calling a guy a Snub who wasn't actually a snub. This year, it's happening all over the place, especially at the skill positions.
Peyton Hillis. Aaron Rodgers. Hakeem Nicks. Matt Cassel.
Yes, they all had very solid seasons. Yes, they all technically "deserved" to make the Pro Bowl, meaning the played very well and had great numbers. But guess what? There were at least 3 guys at their respective positions who simply had better seasons. Sorry. Don't give me a Snub without telling me which Pro Bowler to omit.
People want Hillis on the Pro Bowl team. I can see why, he was amazing. But who are you going to take off? Foster (1st in rushing years), Charles (2nd) or Jones-Drew (4th)? Hillis ranks 10th. He also plays for a 5-10 team, and his YPC isn't as good as those three. Come off it.
The skill positions are generally easy. Just take the guys with the best stats. It rarely gets confusing. This year the only mistake was Reggie Wayne making the team ahead of Mike Wallace. Wallace had twice as many TDs and half as many drops. Wayne was a liability most of the season.
But overall, the skill positions were okay. It's the linemen and the defensive players that are so outrageoulsy chosen. Without futher ado, here are the 12 worst Pro Bowl selections, followed by who should have been chosen in their stead. These are in no particular order.
1) Let's start with Darelle Revis. Since when can you miss three games with injury, record only 26 tackles, have zero interceptions, and yet make the Pro Bowl? I know he's got a cool nickname and a lockdown reputation, but let's see at least one big play before we make the guy a Pro Bowl starter. Jets fans would contend that he wasn't even their best cornerback. Who should have made it: Champ Bailey! He played for an awful defense, but still reclaimed his role as a Lockdown corner. He had one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career.
2) Ray Lewis. Is he a future Hall of Famer? No doubt. Is he the best middle linebacker of all time? Yes. If he the best defensive player since Lawrence Taylor? Absolutely. But that doesnt mean he has to make the Pro Bowl every year. He was once again dominant, but he shouldn't have made the team over Steelers linebacker Lawerence Timmons.
3) Staying in Baltimore, let's go with Terrell Suggs. Just like Lewis, he made the team mostly because of his name and the reputation of the Ravens as an elite defense (they actually ranked just 8th overall). One Raven definitely deserved to make the team. That was DT Haloti Ngata. But Suggs should have been passed over for KC's Tamba Hali, who had more sacks, more forced fumbles, more tackles, and didn't have the benefit of playing next to Ngata and Lewis. Hali was probably the biggest Actual Snub.
4) Maurkice Pouncey, center for Pittsburgh. Did you see the Steelers play this year? Their offensive line was a joke. Absolutely horrendous. Pouncey made the team simply because he was the only guy who didn't get hurt. But no way he should have made the team over Baltimore's Matt Birk. That's just stupid. Kudos to the voters for not electing Jeff Saturday, however. Normally he gets in just on reputation. This season the Colts O-line was atrocious, so I'm glad he didn't make it.
5) The NFC Safety position. Nick Collins for Green Bay was a good pick, but Antrelle Rolle and Adrian Wilson made the team because they are household names and have big contracts. But they absolutely didn't deserve it, especially not Wilson, who by his own admission had a horrible season. Instead, Quintin Mikell, who according to profootballfocus.com was the best overall safety in run defense AND led all safeties in passes broken up, should have made the team, along with Malcolm Jenkins from the Saints.
6) Charles Woodson. Last year he won defensive player of the year despite being only the 4th best choice. This year, he starts in the Pro Bowl despite being the second best cornerback on his own team. Dare I say, my favorite college player of all time is becomming overrated? Antoine Winfield should have made the team. And for that matter, DeAngelo Hall only made the Pro Bowl because Jay Cutler tossed him 4 INTs in one game. Hall should be switched with Atlanta's Brent Grimes, who had an outstanding year.
7) Let's get to the offensive linemen. I already touched on Andre Gurode, possibly the worst Pro Bowl choice of all time. He should immediately be replaced by Harvey Dahl from Atlanta. Then there's Jason Peters, who makes his second straight undeserved Pro Bowl thanks to his large contract. Instead of Peters, how about Kareem McKenzie from the Giants, who was quietly better than teammates O'Hara and Snee, both of whom did make the Pro Bowl. Last but not least, Jordan Gross. He is a great player stuck on the 2-13 Panthers, and I feel bad for him. But he should not have made the Pro Bowl ahead of Tampa's Donald Penn, who had a terrific season protecting Josh Freeman. The fact that no Bucs made the Pro Bowl is an outrage.
8) Moving to the AFC, Joe Thomas and Jake Long were obvious picks, and should continue to be Pro Bowlers for the next five years. The other tackle position is occupied by D'Brickashaw Ferguson, which I'm okay with. I do believe that Ferguson would be a nobody if his first name was something normal like Dan. But that spot isn't a major conern to me, though Cincinnati's Andrew Whitworth deserved it too. Making the Pro Bowl in the AFC at the tackle position is going to be extremely difficult until Long or Thomas switch conferences.
At guard, I'm fine with Dielman and Waters. Great picks. They should be the starters. Congrats to the voters on getting that right. But Logan Mankins? Seriously? All he did was miss the first 8 games with a contract holdout. Yes he came back and played great, but you can't be a Pro Bowler if you play just half the season. Sorry. If you could, LaRon Landry and Aqib Talib and Dallas Clark and plenty of others would make the team too. Mankins made it on reputation, because he's a Patriot, and because, well, he is extremely good. But let's give the honor to somehow who played all 16 games. Like Ben Grubbs (BAL). Or Vince Manuwai (JAC). Or Brandon Moore (NYJ). Or even Eric Steinbach (CLE). Any of those guys over Mankins. I'd go with Grubbs.
9) One last offensive lineman, and that's Jahri Evans of the Saints, also known as the highest paid offensive lineman in NFL history. His contract made him famous, and his fame made his a Pro Bowler. He'll likely make the next 10 Pro Bowls. But unlike Thomas and Long, he's not a dominant player on every snap. He's been inconsistent, he's been penalized 10 times, and he's struggled - and that's putting it nicely - in the running game. Let's ignore contracts and give the starting job to someone who earned it. Like Josh Sitton from the Packers, who hasn't allowed a sack all season, and ranks as the #1 overall guard on PFF.com.
10) Tony Gonzalez. I kind of touched on this earlier, but Gonzo making the team ahead of Vernon Davis was a travesty. Just look at the stats, they speak for themselves:
TG - 64 catches, 603 yards, 5 TDs, 9.4 YPC,
VD - 53 catches, 818 yards, 6 TDs, 15.4 YPC.
Add in the fact that Davis missed two games with injuries, and the fact that Davis is a much better blocker, and you have a legitimate skill position Snub. Gonzalez will get plenty of much-deserved acclamation when he's inducted into the Hall of Fame, but let's not take away the Pro Bowl from a young player who earned it.
11) Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Colts duo of DEs combined for 20 sacks and 6 fumbles forced. But 5 of those fumbles were Freeney's, and he also faced more double teams. Mathis's spot should have gone to Houston's Mario Williams, who had a modest season with 8.5 sacks, but faces a double team on every single snap and plays on an awful defense. Mario should be similar to Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Nnamdi Asomugha, Troy Polamalu and Patrick Willis - a Pro Bowler every season, as long as he stays healthy. Pretty close to joining that list is Ndamukong Suh. The other DE spot in the AFC correctly went to Jason Babin of the Titans.
12) Lastly, I'm going with Jay Ratliff. I already mentioned him earlier. He has more reputation that he knows what to do with, but he anchored the Cowboys' mediocre 14th ranked rush defense. Suh and Justin Smith were the correct choices at interior linemen in the NFC, but Ratliff should be replaced by Kevin Williams of the Vikings. Or Trent Cole, who is a DE, but could be moved to DT, since he is the best run-stuffing DE in the league. Either way, Ratliff belongs at home, not in the Pro Bowl.
So there you go. My two cents on the stupid Pro Bowl.
As for the year-end awards, MVP is easy (Brady), ROYs are easy (Bradford, Suh), and Comeback Player is super easy (Vick.)
D-MVP is a tough battle, as is Coach of the Year. Lots of deserving candidates for both. I'll wait until after week 17 to make my final picks, but for now these would be my top 5 lists for each:
D-MVP
1. Clay Matthews - 12.5 sacks, 2 fumbles, 1 INT - despite lingering shin problems.
2. Troy Polamalu -Missed a couple late games due to injury, but anchors the league's best defense.
3. Cameron Wake - Leads the NFL in sacks, but his team isn't going to the playoffs.
4. Tamba Hali - Like I said, this is my ballot. No way he could actually win.
5. Haloti Ngata - Absolute beast, but DTs rarely win this award.
Coach
1. Bill Bellichick - Smart enough to trade Moss before he self-destructed; good enough to have the league's best record.
2. Andy Reid - Smart enough to start Vick. Enough said.
3. Raheem Morris - He should win the award IF Tampa beats the Saints next week. That's a very big if.
4. Mike Tomlin - Navigated the trials of a Rapist QB, an injured O-line, and a skin-and-bones receiving crew. Still went 12-4.
5. Mike Smith - Atlanta's going to finish 13-3. That's pretty good right?
If Rex Ryan or Todd Haley wins the award, I'm going to scream. Haley won the AFC West because nobody else was above .500, and Ryan won 10 games but went 2-4 against playoff teams.
Predictions: Polamalu for D-MVP, Reid for Coach.
Stay tuned for week 17 picks.
BTW: I went 10-6 last week for a 129-107-4 overall record.
Also, stay tuned for the Top 50 NBA Players list, which has been changed to a Top 75.
Peace.
Just like in the NBA, making the Pro Bowl has nothing to do with your performance. It used to, a couple seasons ago, but apparently those days are done. Now it's a freakin popularity contest.
The only reason it upsets me is because players' legacies are at stake. When Iverson retires, they'll call him an "11 time All Star," when really they should say "he played about 6 great seasons, 2 mediocre seasons, and then he sucked the life out of his teammates for 3 years." He'll make the Hall of Fame because of his many All Star appearances, even though the last 4 of them were a farce!
Now it's happening in the NFL. Guys made the Pro Bowl simply because of the size of their name. I'm surprised Favre and his sub-70 passer rating didn't make it. It's unbelievable.
No wonder it's so hard to predict the NFL during the preseason. You look at the Cowboys and say "Wow, this team has five Pro Bowl starters! They must be good!"
But Gurode and Ratliff had HORRENDOUS seasons. You could argue that Andre Gurode was the worst offensive lineman in the entire NFL. His bone-headed penalties cost the Cowboys not one, but two games! And he's starting in the Pro Bowl?? Those morons made the team for one reason: because they have a big blue star on their helmet. Jason Witten and DeMarcus Ware had pretty good seasons, but they shouldn't be starting ahead of Vernon Davis and Justin Tuck. Even the Cowboys' punter made the team! What a stupid outrage!
The Cowboys have more Pro Bowlers than the entire NFC West!! Okay, maybe that's not a good example...
Around this time, each and every year, the pundits and analysts love to talk about one topic above all topics: Pro Bowl Snubs! It gets people reaaally riled up. Their faces turn red as they read impressive stats and complain about their favorite player missing the team. I did it a couple years ago when Calvin Johnson was snubbed despite being the best receiver in the NFC, statistically and in real-life.
But this year ... what's the point? I mean, I could moan about how Dominic Raiola deserves the Pro Bowl over Gurode, or how Stefan Logan should have made it instead of Hester, or how Kyle VandenBosch could have made the team ahead of Justin Smith or Ware. But why? It's not going to change the stupid system.
But here's what really bugs me: calling a guy a Snub who wasn't actually a snub. This year, it's happening all over the place, especially at the skill positions.
Peyton Hillis. Aaron Rodgers. Hakeem Nicks. Matt Cassel.
Yes, they all had very solid seasons. Yes, they all technically "deserved" to make the Pro Bowl, meaning the played very well and had great numbers. But guess what? There were at least 3 guys at their respective positions who simply had better seasons. Sorry. Don't give me a Snub without telling me which Pro Bowler to omit.
People want Hillis on the Pro Bowl team. I can see why, he was amazing. But who are you going to take off? Foster (1st in rushing years), Charles (2nd) or Jones-Drew (4th)? Hillis ranks 10th. He also plays for a 5-10 team, and his YPC isn't as good as those three. Come off it.
The skill positions are generally easy. Just take the guys with the best stats. It rarely gets confusing. This year the only mistake was Reggie Wayne making the team ahead of Mike Wallace. Wallace had twice as many TDs and half as many drops. Wayne was a liability most of the season.
But overall, the skill positions were okay. It's the linemen and the defensive players that are so outrageoulsy chosen. Without futher ado, here are the 12 worst Pro Bowl selections, followed by who should have been chosen in their stead. These are in no particular order.
1) Let's start with Darelle Revis. Since when can you miss three games with injury, record only 26 tackles, have zero interceptions, and yet make the Pro Bowl? I know he's got a cool nickname and a lockdown reputation, but let's see at least one big play before we make the guy a Pro Bowl starter. Jets fans would contend that he wasn't even their best cornerback. Who should have made it: Champ Bailey! He played for an awful defense, but still reclaimed his role as a Lockdown corner. He had one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career.
2) Ray Lewis. Is he a future Hall of Famer? No doubt. Is he the best middle linebacker of all time? Yes. If he the best defensive player since Lawrence Taylor? Absolutely. But that doesnt mean he has to make the Pro Bowl every year. He was once again dominant, but he shouldn't have made the team over Steelers linebacker Lawerence Timmons.
3) Staying in Baltimore, let's go with Terrell Suggs. Just like Lewis, he made the team mostly because of his name and the reputation of the Ravens as an elite defense (they actually ranked just 8th overall). One Raven definitely deserved to make the team. That was DT Haloti Ngata. But Suggs should have been passed over for KC's Tamba Hali, who had more sacks, more forced fumbles, more tackles, and didn't have the benefit of playing next to Ngata and Lewis. Hali was probably the biggest Actual Snub.
4) Maurkice Pouncey, center for Pittsburgh. Did you see the Steelers play this year? Their offensive line was a joke. Absolutely horrendous. Pouncey made the team simply because he was the only guy who didn't get hurt. But no way he should have made the team over Baltimore's Matt Birk. That's just stupid. Kudos to the voters for not electing Jeff Saturday, however. Normally he gets in just on reputation. This season the Colts O-line was atrocious, so I'm glad he didn't make it.
5) The NFC Safety position. Nick Collins for Green Bay was a good pick, but Antrelle Rolle and Adrian Wilson made the team because they are household names and have big contracts. But they absolutely didn't deserve it, especially not Wilson, who by his own admission had a horrible season. Instead, Quintin Mikell, who according to profootballfocus.com was the best overall safety in run defense AND led all safeties in passes broken up, should have made the team, along with Malcolm Jenkins from the Saints.
6) Charles Woodson. Last year he won defensive player of the year despite being only the 4th best choice. This year, he starts in the Pro Bowl despite being the second best cornerback on his own team. Dare I say, my favorite college player of all time is becomming overrated? Antoine Winfield should have made the team. And for that matter, DeAngelo Hall only made the Pro Bowl because Jay Cutler tossed him 4 INTs in one game. Hall should be switched with Atlanta's Brent Grimes, who had an outstanding year.
7) Let's get to the offensive linemen. I already touched on Andre Gurode, possibly the worst Pro Bowl choice of all time. He should immediately be replaced by Harvey Dahl from Atlanta. Then there's Jason Peters, who makes his second straight undeserved Pro Bowl thanks to his large contract. Instead of Peters, how about Kareem McKenzie from the Giants, who was quietly better than teammates O'Hara and Snee, both of whom did make the Pro Bowl. Last but not least, Jordan Gross. He is a great player stuck on the 2-13 Panthers, and I feel bad for him. But he should not have made the Pro Bowl ahead of Tampa's Donald Penn, who had a terrific season protecting Josh Freeman. The fact that no Bucs made the Pro Bowl is an outrage.
8) Moving to the AFC, Joe Thomas and Jake Long were obvious picks, and should continue to be Pro Bowlers for the next five years. The other tackle position is occupied by D'Brickashaw Ferguson, which I'm okay with. I do believe that Ferguson would be a nobody if his first name was something normal like Dan. But that spot isn't a major conern to me, though Cincinnati's Andrew Whitworth deserved it too. Making the Pro Bowl in the AFC at the tackle position is going to be extremely difficult until Long or Thomas switch conferences.
At guard, I'm fine with Dielman and Waters. Great picks. They should be the starters. Congrats to the voters on getting that right. But Logan Mankins? Seriously? All he did was miss the first 8 games with a contract holdout. Yes he came back and played great, but you can't be a Pro Bowler if you play just half the season. Sorry. If you could, LaRon Landry and Aqib Talib and Dallas Clark and plenty of others would make the team too. Mankins made it on reputation, because he's a Patriot, and because, well, he is extremely good. But let's give the honor to somehow who played all 16 games. Like Ben Grubbs (BAL). Or Vince Manuwai (JAC). Or Brandon Moore (NYJ). Or even Eric Steinbach (CLE). Any of those guys over Mankins. I'd go with Grubbs.
9) One last offensive lineman, and that's Jahri Evans of the Saints, also known as the highest paid offensive lineman in NFL history. His contract made him famous, and his fame made his a Pro Bowler. He'll likely make the next 10 Pro Bowls. But unlike Thomas and Long, he's not a dominant player on every snap. He's been inconsistent, he's been penalized 10 times, and he's struggled - and that's putting it nicely - in the running game. Let's ignore contracts and give the starting job to someone who earned it. Like Josh Sitton from the Packers, who hasn't allowed a sack all season, and ranks as the #1 overall guard on PFF.com.
10) Tony Gonzalez. I kind of touched on this earlier, but Gonzo making the team ahead of Vernon Davis was a travesty. Just look at the stats, they speak for themselves:
TG - 64 catches, 603 yards, 5 TDs, 9.4 YPC,
VD - 53 catches, 818 yards, 6 TDs, 15.4 YPC.
Add in the fact that Davis missed two games with injuries, and the fact that Davis is a much better blocker, and you have a legitimate skill position Snub. Gonzalez will get plenty of much-deserved acclamation when he's inducted into the Hall of Fame, but let's not take away the Pro Bowl from a young player who earned it.
11) Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Colts duo of DEs combined for 20 sacks and 6 fumbles forced. But 5 of those fumbles were Freeney's, and he also faced more double teams. Mathis's spot should have gone to Houston's Mario Williams, who had a modest season with 8.5 sacks, but faces a double team on every single snap and plays on an awful defense. Mario should be similar to Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Nnamdi Asomugha, Troy Polamalu and Patrick Willis - a Pro Bowler every season, as long as he stays healthy. Pretty close to joining that list is Ndamukong Suh. The other DE spot in the AFC correctly went to Jason Babin of the Titans.
12) Lastly, I'm going with Jay Ratliff. I already mentioned him earlier. He has more reputation that he knows what to do with, but he anchored the Cowboys' mediocre 14th ranked rush defense. Suh and Justin Smith were the correct choices at interior linemen in the NFC, but Ratliff should be replaced by Kevin Williams of the Vikings. Or Trent Cole, who is a DE, but could be moved to DT, since he is the best run-stuffing DE in the league. Either way, Ratliff belongs at home, not in the Pro Bowl.
So there you go. My two cents on the stupid Pro Bowl.
As for the year-end awards, MVP is easy (Brady), ROYs are easy (Bradford, Suh), and Comeback Player is super easy (Vick.)
D-MVP is a tough battle, as is Coach of the Year. Lots of deserving candidates for both. I'll wait until after week 17 to make my final picks, but for now these would be my top 5 lists for each:
D-MVP
1. Clay Matthews - 12.5 sacks, 2 fumbles, 1 INT - despite lingering shin problems.
2. Troy Polamalu -Missed a couple late games due to injury, but anchors the league's best defense.
3. Cameron Wake - Leads the NFL in sacks, but his team isn't going to the playoffs.
4. Tamba Hali - Like I said, this is my ballot. No way he could actually win.
5. Haloti Ngata - Absolute beast, but DTs rarely win this award.
Coach
1. Bill Bellichick - Smart enough to trade Moss before he self-destructed; good enough to have the league's best record.
2. Andy Reid - Smart enough to start Vick. Enough said.
3. Raheem Morris - He should win the award IF Tampa beats the Saints next week. That's a very big if.
4. Mike Tomlin - Navigated the trials of a Rapist QB, an injured O-line, and a skin-and-bones receiving crew. Still went 12-4.
5. Mike Smith - Atlanta's going to finish 13-3. That's pretty good right?
If Rex Ryan or Todd Haley wins the award, I'm going to scream. Haley won the AFC West because nobody else was above .500, and Ryan won 10 games but went 2-4 against playoff teams.
Predictions: Polamalu for D-MVP, Reid for Coach.
Stay tuned for week 17 picks.
BTW: I went 10-6 last week for a 129-107-4 overall record.
Also, stay tuned for the Top 50 NBA Players list, which has been changed to a Top 75.
Peace.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
2012 ... Who Will Run Against Obama??
A few months ago, I wrote what I've been wanting to write since 2008 - that Sarah Palin is a moron. If she actually earned the Republican nomination, it would ensure another landslide victory for Obama and 4 more years of his administration. What I didn't do, and probably should have, was talk about the other potential Republican candidates.
Recent CNN polls have showed Palin's popularity is slipping, even among Conservatives, and people are finally starting to realize that somebody other than her is going to have to run in 2012. I'm proud of the American people for finally realizing how stupid she is, but disappointed that it took so dang long.
So, that raises the obvious question: who will run against Obama? Who stands the best chance? Who can actually beat him?
In no particular order, here are some options:
1) Mitt Romney, Governor of Massachusetts.
Probably the most likely, but not necessarily the guy with the best chance. Like Obama, he's a Harvard guy. He's also a Mormon, a former missionary, and a pretty good lookin guy. He narrowly lost to McCain last time. Romney's potential flaw: we've seen him before. He lacks that freshness that politics often requires.
2) Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas
My parent's top pick, Huckabee is outspokenly Christian and not afraid to mingle politics with religion. This will endear him to many, but also cost him many moderate votes. He might be too right-wing. Whoever beats Obama will have to secure not only the Religious Right, but also the moderates and minorities. That will be his biggest challenge.
3) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana
Sort of a rising star among Republicans, Daniels has the education and experience to go toe-to-toe with Obama and beat him. His greatest challenge will be garnering enough attention to win the Primaries.
4) Ron Paul, US Representate from Texas
He's run for President twice as a Libertarian, but is rumored to run under the Republican ticket in 2012. He's as small-government as they come. What's the opposite of a Socialist? A capitalist? I guess maybe that's what Liberatarian means. Anyway, he's probaby too old (75).
5) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota
This is one of my favorites. He's been rumored to run since early 2009, and was expected to be McCain's VP pick before McCain stupidly picked Palin. He's a lawyer, a Baptist, and a hockey player. He's pretty young, decently good looking, and doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He just might have the newness and youth needed to excite the Republican party and take down Obama. But first he needs to make a name for himself (write a book!) and become a true contender in the minds of voters. Best way to do that? Start going by the nickname T-Paw.
6) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida
If not for his last name, he might have a chance. But there's no way another Bush is getting into the White House for another 300 years.
7) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi
Here's another unknown fellow who actually has a decent chance. He made a name for himself for the way he handled Hurricane Katrina, and has become beloved in the South much like Rudy Guiliana was after 9/11. He's a former lawyer and lobbyist, and might be a strong enough leader to take the Republican party under his wing and become the new face of the party. Plus he has an interesting name, which helps.
8) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House
He's been rumored to run for President since 1996, but appears poised to finally make his move in 2012. Question is, is he too late? He's now 67 years old, and while he carries a well-known name, it's not exactly known for all the right reasons. He's been married 3 times, he was embroiled in an ugly ethics scandal, and consequently resigned. He's certain to have a strong following, but like Romney, I don't think he has the freshness needed to beat Obama.
9) Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida
If you want young and fresh, here's your guy. He's just 39 years old, but Obama was just 47 and JFK was 43 when they were elected. Maybe the Republicans' best chance is to roll with the young son of Cuban exiles. Check out his credentials:
-Graduated top of the class from University of Miami Law School;
-Played college football at Tarkio College;
-Is married to a former Miami Dolphins cheerleader;
-Speaks fluent Spanis - which means he can do campaign speeches without a translator;
-His dad was a bartender, and his mom was a hotel housekeeper.
If the Republicans are ready to mix things up and go full-force after the minority and lower-class vote, Rubio is the guy. The only question is whether he could get votes from the old grumpy white guys. He probably won't win the Primary (if he actually runs), but if he does, he'll have a legit shot against Obama. My guess is that he doesn't run, but could be elected President in 2016, especially if Obama wins in '12. Remember the name: Marco Rubio.
Last but not least, my personal favorite...
10) Scott Brown, Senator from Massachusetts
That's right, a Republican from Massachusetts. If that sounds weird to you, that's because he's the first GOP Senator from that state since 1972. And that's just one of his many accomplishments:
-Active member of the U.S. National Guard for over 30 years; ranks as a Lieutenant Colonel;
-Attended Law School at Boston College;
-Worked as a model for Cosmopolitan magazine;
-Been in politics since 1992;
-Identifies himself as "socially moderate but fiscally conservative;"
-Has a memoir to be released in early 2011;
-His daughter, Ayla, was a semi-finalist on season 5 of American Idol;
He is personally against same-sex marriage and abortion, but doesn't believe they should be made illegal. He also was one of few Republican senators who voted in favor of lifting the ban on Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Those things will make him unpopular among super Conservatives (like Palin, who has publicly bashed him), but will give him a fighting chance against Obama if he were to win the Primary.
A 51 year old guy who looks like James Bond and actually thinks for himself? Sounds like a good Candidate to me.
So there you have it. Ten candidates who are infinitely better than Sarah Palin.
Recent CNN polls have showed Palin's popularity is slipping, even among Conservatives, and people are finally starting to realize that somebody other than her is going to have to run in 2012. I'm proud of the American people for finally realizing how stupid she is, but disappointed that it took so dang long.
So, that raises the obvious question: who will run against Obama? Who stands the best chance? Who can actually beat him?
In no particular order, here are some options:
1) Mitt Romney, Governor of Massachusetts.
Probably the most likely, but not necessarily the guy with the best chance. Like Obama, he's a Harvard guy. He's also a Mormon, a former missionary, and a pretty good lookin guy. He narrowly lost to McCain last time. Romney's potential flaw: we've seen him before. He lacks that freshness that politics often requires.
2) Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas
My parent's top pick, Huckabee is outspokenly Christian and not afraid to mingle politics with religion. This will endear him to many, but also cost him many moderate votes. He might be too right-wing. Whoever beats Obama will have to secure not only the Religious Right, but also the moderates and minorities. That will be his biggest challenge.
3) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana
Sort of a rising star among Republicans, Daniels has the education and experience to go toe-to-toe with Obama and beat him. His greatest challenge will be garnering enough attention to win the Primaries.
4) Ron Paul, US Representate from Texas
He's run for President twice as a Libertarian, but is rumored to run under the Republican ticket in 2012. He's as small-government as they come. What's the opposite of a Socialist? A capitalist? I guess maybe that's what Liberatarian means. Anyway, he's probaby too old (75).
5) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota
This is one of my favorites. He's been rumored to run since early 2009, and was expected to be McCain's VP pick before McCain stupidly picked Palin. He's a lawyer, a Baptist, and a hockey player. He's pretty young, decently good looking, and doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He just might have the newness and youth needed to excite the Republican party and take down Obama. But first he needs to make a name for himself (write a book!) and become a true contender in the minds of voters. Best way to do that? Start going by the nickname T-Paw.
6) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida
If not for his last name, he might have a chance. But there's no way another Bush is getting into the White House for another 300 years.
7) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi
Here's another unknown fellow who actually has a decent chance. He made a name for himself for the way he handled Hurricane Katrina, and has become beloved in the South much like Rudy Guiliana was after 9/11. He's a former lawyer and lobbyist, and might be a strong enough leader to take the Republican party under his wing and become the new face of the party. Plus he has an interesting name, which helps.
8) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House
He's been rumored to run for President since 1996, but appears poised to finally make his move in 2012. Question is, is he too late? He's now 67 years old, and while he carries a well-known name, it's not exactly known for all the right reasons. He's been married 3 times, he was embroiled in an ugly ethics scandal, and consequently resigned. He's certain to have a strong following, but like Romney, I don't think he has the freshness needed to beat Obama.
9) Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida
If you want young and fresh, here's your guy. He's just 39 years old, but Obama was just 47 and JFK was 43 when they were elected. Maybe the Republicans' best chance is to roll with the young son of Cuban exiles. Check out his credentials:
-Graduated top of the class from University of Miami Law School;
-Played college football at Tarkio College;
-Is married to a former Miami Dolphins cheerleader;
-Speaks fluent Spanis - which means he can do campaign speeches without a translator;
-His dad was a bartender, and his mom was a hotel housekeeper.
If the Republicans are ready to mix things up and go full-force after the minority and lower-class vote, Rubio is the guy. The only question is whether he could get votes from the old grumpy white guys. He probably won't win the Primary (if he actually runs), but if he does, he'll have a legit shot against Obama. My guess is that he doesn't run, but could be elected President in 2016, especially if Obama wins in '12. Remember the name: Marco Rubio.
Last but not least, my personal favorite...
10) Scott Brown, Senator from Massachusetts
That's right, a Republican from Massachusetts. If that sounds weird to you, that's because he's the first GOP Senator from that state since 1972. And that's just one of his many accomplishments:
-Active member of the U.S. National Guard for over 30 years; ranks as a Lieutenant Colonel;
-Attended Law School at Boston College;
-Worked as a model for Cosmopolitan magazine;
-Been in politics since 1992;
-Identifies himself as "socially moderate but fiscally conservative;"
-Has a memoir to be released in early 2011;
-His daughter, Ayla, was a semi-finalist on season 5 of American Idol;
He is personally against same-sex marriage and abortion, but doesn't believe they should be made illegal. He also was one of few Republican senators who voted in favor of lifting the ban on Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Those things will make him unpopular among super Conservatives (like Palin, who has publicly bashed him), but will give him a fighting chance against Obama if he were to win the Primary.
A 51 year old guy who looks like James Bond and actually thinks for himself? Sounds like a good Candidate to me.
So there you have it. Ten candidates who are infinitely better than Sarah Palin.
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