TOP 75 Players in the NBA
The past two NBA seasons, I’ve compiled a Top 50 NBA Players list. This year, I’ve upped the list to 75. There were just too many quality players being left off the top 50. Without further ado…
75. Nene Hilario, DEN
The 7-foot Brazilian sneaks in thanks to his league-leading 63% field goal percentage and his near 8 rebounds per game.
74. Mike Conley, MEM
The former Buckeye has yet to live up to his #4 overall selection in the 2007 draft, although the numbers are steadily going up across the board. His 2 steals a game and 7 assists both rank in the top 10 in the NBA.
73. Ben Wallace, DET
One of the main reasons I extended this from a Top 50 to a Top 75 was so that I could include a representative from each team. Sadly, Ben was the only Piston, in my opinion, who warranted consideration, and he barely squeaked in. His 6.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks aren't exactly the 15 and 3.5 that he used to average. The 3.2 ppg is pathetic, but not quite as pathetic as his free-throw percentage. Believe it or not, he's shooting 31.6% from the line. I've coached middle school girls who could do better than that. But Ben comes in at #73 because of his many contributions that don't show up on the stat sheet - redirecting shots, rebounding instincts, hustling for loose balls, and outstanding help-defense. But mainly, he shows up because I couldn't stand the thought of a Top 75 that didn't include any Pistons, when just five years ago there would have been five Pistons in the top 40.
I suppose I could have included Ben Gordon, or Stuckey, or Tayshaun, or even T-Mac. But my contention is that Ben is the Pistons' best overall player. Typing that sentence makes me enormously sad.
My brother summed up the current state of the Pistons perfectly the other day - "Dumars has them in such a bad position that they're 3 years away from even being able to start rebuilding." It's true. Gordon and Villanueva have such horrendous contracts and the team does not have a single young player to build around. Their best chance would have been trading Rip or Tayshaun while they still had some trade value, but those days are passed. We've whiffed on our last 2 first-round picks (Monroe and Daye) while Dumars has assembled a collection of washed-up shooting guards and offensively-challenged bigs. Jonas Jerebko is probably the only Pistons player worth being remotely excited about, and of course he's out all season with an Achilles injury.
The only chance Detroit has of being above .500 in the next 5 years is to get lucky with pingpong balls and land Kemba Walker from UConn or Harrison Barnes from UNC. Speaking of that, the NBA pingpong ball lottery is one of the 5 stupidest things in all of sports, along with 1) the BCS, 2) the MLB all-star game, 3) NFL overtime rules, and 4) the BCS. There's got to be a way to prevent teams from tanking without a random lottery decided by small plastic balls. What about fining teams six-digits if they are suspected of tanking? Or just give the #1 pick to the worst team and if they want to tank, let them. Either solution is better than the stupid ping pong balls. Detroit could conceivably go 3-79 and draft #7 overall. That's stupid.
If merely thinking about the Pistons is making you depressed, I suggest you watch this. And if that doesn't work, there's always this.
72) Tie - Wilson Chandler, NYK and Danilo Gallinari, NYK
I couldn't decide which of these Knicks forwards to rank higher, so I’ve got them tied. Chandler is filling the stat sheet on a regular basis, averaging 17-6-2 with 1.5 blocks and 2 threes a game. No wonder he ranks 13th overall in fantasy basketball, ahead of guys like LeBron, Pierce and Kobe. Gallinari has emerged as a premier outside shooter, scoring about 15 a game and shooting 37% from downtown, while his 87.9% free throw percentage is tied with Nowitzki for the best among frontcourt players. The Knicks surprising start (22-18 so far) has been one of the best stories of 2010, and although Stoudemire deservedly gets most of the credit, Chandler and Gallinari are playing huge roles. Gallinari has played well enough to potentially earn the coveted role of Centerpiece In The Carmelo-To-New-York Trade, which should happen before the February 24 trade deadline. *EDIT* Unless Carmleo goes to the Nets first.
70) Stephen Jackson, CHA
In his ten year career, Jackson has averaged 16 points a game for six different teams, and averaged a career-best 21 last year as a Bobcat. But the reason he's ranked outside the top 60 is his god-awful shooting percentage. 41.7% this year, 41.8% for his career. One of the worst percentages in the entire league on a yearly basis. It's very strange that Charlotte allows him to jack up 15 shots a game.
69) Jeff Green, OKC
The #5 pick a few years ago was taken three picks after teammate Kevin Durant. Together with Russell Westbrook they form one of the best under-25 trios in NBA history. Green is content with his role as the third option in the offense, and chips in with 6 rebounds per game. Every championship contender needs a player like Green - a great talent who understands and embraces his supporting role.
68) Tyson Chandler, DAL
You've really got to pay attention to keep track of what team this guy is on. First Chicago, then New Orleans, then a quick stint in Charlotte and now starting at center for the Mavericks. Chandler's willingness to bang in the paint makes him a perfect compliment for Dirk Nowitzki. He collects about 9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per night, while shooting a disgustingly good 67.4% from the field. (The reason Nene is the league-leader in FG% with 63% is you have to attempt at least 8 shots per game to qualify; Chandler only takes about 5 shots per game.)
67) Emeka Okafor, NO
Probably hasn't lived up to the #2 overall pick from the 2004 draft, but he's been statistically sound for seven seasons. He's currently averaging a double-double for the sixth time in his career, and he blocks 1.8 shots per game - 12th best overall. His glaring weakness, though, is offensive production. He scores just 11 points a game, which is a clear reflection of his passivity and lack of range. As Chris Paul's center, he should be able to score more than 11 per game.
66) Jason Kidd, DAL
He's fallen well out of the Top 50, but he still deserves top 70 consideration because of his 8.8 assists and 1.8 steals to go with 4.7 rebounds (second among point guards). He's no longer a triple-double machine, but he's still a top 10 point guard when it comes to distributing the ball. The reason he's fallen out of the Top 50 is obvious - he scores just 9 points a game due to his 35.9% shooting percentage. Among the 256 players who've attempted at least 100 shots, Kidd's FG% ranks 254th.
65) Shane Battier, HOU
The ultimate "glue guy," Battier does a little bit of everything. He scores 9 per game along with 5 rebounds, 2.8 assists (5th among SFs), 1.42 blocks (2nd among SFs), and .9 steals (8th among SFs). His greatest assets, however, are the intangibles of intelligence, leadership, selflessness, and hustle. He’s the perfect teammate.
64) Devin Harris, NJ
Usually, when a guy averages 17 points and 7 assists over a three-year span, he'd be ranked higher than this. But the Nets went 12-70 last year, and they're currently 9-25. I like Harris's talent, but he's got to start winning some games to get back in the top 50.
63) Trevor Ariza, NO
His career hit a peak two years ago, when he played an integral role in the Lakers 2009 Championship. He provided outside scoring and lockdown defense and emerged as an all-around stud in the making. L.A. rewarded Ariza by sending him to the Rockets, and replacing him with crazyman Ron Artest. Ariza flopped in Houston, while the Lakers won another title. Then Ariza was sent to the Hornets in a four-team trade, and now shoots about 38% from the field and 25% from downtown - numbers that warrant a seat on the bench. However, Ariza deserves a spot in the top 65 because he is capable of defending the opposing team's best player - a challenge that he's embraced since the '09 playoffs. His 1.68 steals per game are 12th in the NBA, and he's a big reason why the Hornets have the NBA's second best defense.
62. Andrea Bargani, TOR
The 7-foot Italian was picked #1 overall in 2006, and was believed to be the next Dirk Nowitzki. That hasn't exactly happened. But statistically, this is by far his best season, as Chris Bosh's exit to Miami left the job wide open. Bargani has excellent post moves and a solid outside shot, but leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive end. 5.6 rebounds per game isn't good enough for a 7-foot player. Like many other European players, he's just not aggressive enough.
61. Jason Terry, DAL
Despite being the second best player on the Mavericks, Terry comes off the bench. It's the same strange phenomenon that brought Al Harrington off the bench for the Pacers and Ginobili for the Spurs. My only explanation is that those teams have some personal interest in winning the Sixth Man of the Year award.
60. Brandon Jennings, MIL
The sophomore point guard is currently dealing with a broken foot, but should be back later in January. Last year he exploded onto the scene with 55 points in his 7th career start, and led the surprising Bucks into the playoffs. Expectations were high this season, and although he was scoring 18 per game along with 6 assists before the foot injury, the Bucks weren't winning. They were supposed to content for the Central Division, and instead they're struggling to stay in the playoff picture. Jennings has a long way to go, but he's an Iverson-like talent.
59. Andre Iguodala, PHI
Iggy has been the Star Player on a Bad Team for a six seasons now, and it's finally time to make a change. He's proven that he'll never be the star on a good team, but time will tell if he could be a solid sidekick. He'll surely be off the Sixers by next season. His scoring (and playing time) have dropped this year, but he's still putting up 6 rebounds and 5 assists along with 1.5 steals, numbers that have been consistent his entire career. But Philly hasn't finished above .500 since drafting Iggy in 2004, and that's all that matters.
58. Antwan Jamison, CLE
Jamison's inconsistency and overall mediocrity is largely to blame for why LeBron left. He spent seven seasons trying to make Cleveland a championship team without a legitimate #2 guy. When the team traded for Jamison, it was more of an insult to LeBron than anything else. "Really, THIS is the best you could get me?" A washed-up, injury-prone, outside-shooting big man? Now, Jamison leads the 8-32 Cavs with about 16 points per game.
57. Al Jefferson, UTA
Two years ago I ranked Jefferson the 17th best overall player, and I thought his arrow was pointing up. He was one of the league's best post players, averaging 21 and 11 with 2 blocks. Now he's scoring just 16 per game with the worst shooting percentage of his career, and he's allowed Paul Millsap to be the Jazz's dominant post player on offense. But in terms of a post defender, it still doesn't get much better than Jefferson.
56. Joakim Noah, CHI
Would have probably been ranked higher before the thumb injury which sidelined him for the past 3+ weeks. He's an elite hustle/rebounder/defender with a knack for making big plays in the clutch. He's also one of the ugliest people to ever live on planet earth.
55. Stephen Curry, GS
Last year's Rookie of the Year runner-up, Curry had a tough task living up to his awesome rookie season (17.5 points, 5.9 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals); but he's pretty close to replicating those numbers across the board. It's especially impressive when you consider that he's being asked to play point guard and distribute the ball, when he clearly should be a spot-up shooter. Curry is a fantasy basketball dreamboat, but in real life ... he's 185 pounds of defensive liability. One of many reasons why the Warriors won't be anywhere near the playoffs.
54. Luis Scola, HOU
The Argentinean monster has replaced Yao Ming admirably over the past 3 seasons. This is his best year yet, with 20 points and 9 boards along with a 51% shooting percentage. He’s a hustle machine and could easily be the third best player on a championship team. I’m not convinced he deserves the All Star hype he’s getting, but you definitely could do worse at starting center.
53. Elton Brand, PHI
He’s been called the Worst Free-Agency Signing of all time, although I think #46 on this list dethroned him this past summer. Brand is currently being paid $16 million a year by the Sixers … and instead of the 24 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks that he averaged with the Clippers, he now puts up a lazy 15 and 8, with half as many blocks and a much lower shooting percentage. He’s content to jack up mid range jumpers and stay out of the paint. But at least he’s actually playing this year. He spent the last two seasons in Philly getting paid $30+ million to sit on the bench with various injuries. Brand is living proof that (enormous contract) + (convenient injuries) + (uninspired play) = a GM’s worst nightmare. Speaking of which…
52. Ron Artest, LAL
Can you believe he’s rebounded (no pun intended) from the Malice at the Palace incident to re-become one of the league’s best defensive players? If you had told me back in 2004 that Artest would still be good in 6 years and the entire Pistons team would be worthless, I would have laughed. Damn. I will now weep bitterly in the coat closet.
51. John Wall, WAS
He’ll finish second in Rookie of the Year voting, but with 16 points per game, 9 assists, and 1.8 steals, Wall has lived up to the immense hype. Now, with Gilbert Arenas traded to Orlando, Wall has the opportunity to shoulder the scoring load in Washington, and should be well over 20 ppg next season. Two things are troubling, though: the awful shooting percentage (40.1%), and the myriad of injuries. He’s already missed roughly a third of the season with knee problems, and he’s only 20 years old.
50. David West, NO
He’s replaced Amare Stoudemire as the league’s premiere Big Guy Who Benefits From Playing With An Elite Point Guard. I have no idea how good West would be without CP3. Probably pretty average. But since Paul was drafted, West averages about 19 a game. He’s not a great rebounder or defender, but that’s Okafor’s territory. West’s job is the pick-and-roll offense, and he’s very good at it.
49. Marcus Camby, POR
Another year, another 11 rebounds and 2 blocks for one of the most consistently great defensive players of our generation. Last year he ranked #48. This year he’s #49. Talk about consistency. Camby ranks fifth among active players in career rebounds (8,675) and third in blocks (2,199).
48. Mo Williams, CLE
LeBron leaving essentially turned Mo from a shooting guard to a point guard, and he’s averaging a surprising 7.3 assists along with 15 points. But let’s not kid ourselves. If the best player on your team is Mo Williams, you’re probably winning less than 20 games (they’re on pace for 16).
47. Jameer Nelson, ORL
I’ve always thought of him as a Poor Man’s Chauncey. He’s strong for a point guard, shoots an accurate deep-ball, and focuses on distributing to the wings and the big guy. He’s not half the defender Chauncey is (or should I say, was), but he’s a top 10 pure point guard offensively, and he is really the only consistent shooter on Orlando’s 25-13 team..
46. Joe Johnson, ATL
It’s very convenient when players with $119 million dollar contracts miss 2 weeks because of minor elbow injuries. Also convenient when their PPG and RPG suddenly drop to the lowest they’ve been in 6 years, and they shoot the worst three-point percentage in the entire NBA. He’s a leading candidate for worst contract in NBA history. So why does JJ come in at #46? Because only 7 other guys average an 18-5-4 or better, and they’re all ranked in the top 20.
45. Zach Randolph, MEM
The former Spartan and Jailblazer has reinvented himself in Memphis as one of the few dominant inside players on both ends of the court. He’s fourth in the NBA in double-doubles with 21 (in 35 games), he’s third in rebounding, and most importantly, he’s staying out of trouble.
44. Raymond Felton, NYK
His career is following the Chauncey Billups Path – top 5 draft pick, considered a bust after 5 disappointing years on losing teams, and then found a new home. In New York, Felton is now scoring 18 per game with 9 assists and shooting 90% from the line. Very Chauncey-esque numbers. Now he’s just got to win an NBA Finals MVP to complete the process.
43. Eric Gordon, LAC
Currently tenth in the NBA in scoring, and that’s in spite of shooting the second-worst 3PT% in the NBA. As his 3-pt percentage slowly creeps up this year (and it will), his 24 points per game might inch closer to 26 or 27. He’s a no-doubt-about-it future All Star.
42. Kevin Martin, HOU
In his first full season with the Rockets, K-Mart is putting up nearly 23 points per game in just 31 minutes per game– giving him the second best points-per-48 ratio in the NBA. Shooting 43% from downtown certainly helps. So does leading the NBA in free throws made. But Houston is far from the playoffs so leading them in scoring doesn’t mean much. In case you’re wondering - the best points-per-48 belongs to Kobe.
41. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
With Brandon Roy’s meniscus busted and possibly needing surgery, Aldridge has stepped up and currently has Portland fighting for the 8th seed. He’s easily having the best season of his career, and has accomplished the rare feat of becoming more effective and more efficient at the same time. He’s really the team’s only weapon on offense, unless you count Wesley Matthews as an offensive weapon. I don’t .
40. Paul Millsap, UTA
Went from incredibly underrated to mildly overrated to now again being underrated. He’s basically Jason Maxiell with consistency and better offense. Averages 18 and 8 and shoots 55% from the field in his first year as a starter. He and Al Jefferson form one of the best frontcourts in the NBA. He runs the pick-and-roll with Williams as well as Boozer did.
39. Lamar Odom, LAL
Very Shane Battier-esque, Odom does a little bit of everything without doing too much. He ranks third on the Lakers in scoring, second in rebounding, third in assists, and third in blocks, all while shooting a sparkly 57% from the field. He’s one of the best 6’10” ball handlers in the NBA.
38. Michael Beasley, MIN
The former #2 overall pick is finally living up to expectations, scoring 21 ppg with 6 rpg in his first year with the T-wolves.. But I distinctly recall the 2008 NBA Draft, hearing Beasley compared to Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, but with more athleticism. He’s not quite there yet. More like a young Antonio McDyess.
37. Al Horford, ATL
One of the best up-and-coming big men in the league. Shoots a great percentage from the field and the free-throw line, and is athletic enough to guard any player on the floor. The Hawks are the only team in the NBA which can seamlessly switch defenders on picks, because of the incredible speed and athleticism of Horford and Josh Smith. He’s not a bad rebounder either, with 9.9 per game despite being only 6’10”.
36. Monta Ellis
Last year, Ellis finished sixth in the NBA in scoring with 25.5 per game, and led the entire NBA in minutes. This year, he’s third in scoring (25.6) and again first in minutes. So why doesn’t he crack the top 35? Because I value wins. And the Warriors win about 35% of their games. But hey, maybe Joe Dumars will make a move and bring Ellis to the Pistons. After all, he’s a shoot-first 2 guard with no sense of team, and you can never have too many of those!
35. Kevin Garnett, BOS
The perennial enigma. He’s sort of the LaDanian Tomlinson of basketball. You keep waiting for him to be washed-up, but you’re never really sure. Some would argue that he’s been Boston’s MVP this season, but I think he’s their fourth best player. I’ll keep him here to be tentatively safe.
34. Brandon Roy, POR
His career has been a quiet tragedy. Just last year I ranked him 11th overall. He was ascending into superstardom. Now, the Blazers aren’t sure if he’ll play another minute this season, or even next season. His knee injuries have snowballed into calamity. I would still want him on my team, simply with the hope that he would regain full strength. When healthy, he’s as dynamic a guard as there is, with the ability to score or pass from anywhere and defend anyone from position 1 to 3. But he just can’t stay healthy.
33. Rudy Gay, MEM
In his fifth year with the Grizzlies, Gay is averaging career-bests in the eight most important statistics: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FG%, FT%, and 3PT%. But the team’s winning percentage (.429) is slightly lower from last year’s (.488), and the Grizz have never made the playoffs since Gay joined the team. He’s well on his way to being the second coming of Iguodala.
32. Chauncey Billups, DEN
Steadily declining and now muddled in trade rumors, Billups’s career has become something of a shame for those of us who miss the glory days of 2004. He can still knock down the three and he’s still a great passer, but any semblance of speed that he used to have is gone. His athleticism is disintegrated. He’s a 34 year old in a 44 year old’s body.
31. David Lee, GS
You would think that a terrific rebounder on the team that misses the most shots per game would make for a historic season, or at least a repeat of last year’s 12 rebounds a game, but instead Lee is only averaging 9.6 boards in his first year on Golden State. His scoring is down by 5 per game, too, and the field goal percentage has dropped from 54% to 47%. Just not a good fit. Adding a guy who can’t play defense to a team that doesn’t play defense apparently wasn’t a smart move. This year, Lee lost his crown as Best American-Born White Guy in the NBA.
30. Tony Parker, SA
It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Parker. No, his stats are good, and his team has the best record in the NBA, and he’s having his best season ever defensively. But amidst all the Spurs’ winning, Parker lost his desperate housewife, Eva Longoria. They are currently in the process of being divorced.
29. Ray Allen, BOS
At age 35, Allen just seems to keep getting better and better. Or at least staying the same, which is still impressive. He’s attempted over 6,000 three-pointers in his 14 year career (second most ever) and somehow is shooting the best percentage of his career with 35 year old legs. His free-throw percentage is a glittery 89%, as usual. Oh, and at some point in the next 15-20 games, he figures to break Reggie Miller’s record for the most three-pointers made. He needs 34 more, and averages 2.2 per game. He’ll hold on to that record for a long while, because there isn’t a challenger in sight. The other active players on the list (Stojakovic, Billups, Kobe, Kidd, Nash) are all too old.
28. Gerald Wallace, CHA
A better fantasy basketball player than real basketball player, G-Wallace is one of the most well-rounded players in the league. 16 points, 8 board, 3 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.5 blocks … but this year his percentages are way down and he’s missed 9 games with an ankle injury. Defensively, he’s one of the best small forwards alive, but his offensive game could use a lot of work.
27. Brook Lopez, NJ
Weird year. He averaged 21 points and 7 rebounds through October and November, and since that point averages more like 14 and 5. Last year he did almost the same thing. He might be schizophrenic. If Carmelo joins the Nets, that will allow Lopez to play a supporting role, which is probably what he needs.
26. Danny Granger, IND
His career is sort of at a crossroads. Keep trying to be ‘the guy,’ averaging 20+ on a crappy team, or get yourself traded to a legit contender and morph into a sidekick while your stats sink? If he cares about money, he’ll keep being ‘the guy.’ Hopefully he cares more about winning, because on a good team he could be one heck of an asset.
25. Manu Ginobili, SA
He’s averaging career highs in points, FT%, 3PTs, steals, and assists, and is a prominent reason for the Spurs league-best 33-6 record. Some have even called him an MVP candidate. And he used to come off the bench. How stupid.
24. Josh Smith, ATL
One of the league’s best shot blockers and best all-around defensive players, and his offensive game continues to improve. He’s got to stop jacking up threes though.
23. Andrew Bogut, MIL
First in blocks, sixth in rebounds, and coming off a 27 rebound game against Miami a couple weeks ago. The former #1 pick is officially no longer a bust!
22. Chris Bosh, MIA
His fall out of the top 20 has been one of the most important basketball stories of the season. It could be the biggest reason why Miami doesn’t win the championship this year, though I still think they will. But everyone expected Miami to have three superstars; instead they have two superstars and one quasi-kind-of-nervous-star. Bosh looks awkward, timid, and completely out-of-place. The look on his face says, “I can’t believe everybody hates me so much! I’m a nice guy, damn it. UGH, I knew I should have gone to Chicago….”
It was a given that his PPG and RPG would drop, but how in the world does acquiring LeBron and Wade as teammates cause your FG% to drop??? That makes no sense whatsoever. Drafting Bosh with the 11th overall pick in my fantasy basketball draft was one of the worst decisions I made in 2010.
21. Tim Duncan, SA
Not since John Stockton and Jerry Sloan has there been a more perfect coach-teammate marriage than the one between Duncan and Popovich. Duncan continues to be the most consistent superstar of our generation, and despite career-lows in minutes and points, he’s leading the Spurs on a 68-win pace. If they lock up the #1 seed in the playoffs it will be interesting to see if they can hold off the Lakers.
20. Carlos Boozer, CHI
Missed the first month of the year with a broken hand, then came back just in time for Joakim Noah to break his thumb. While the two were together, Chicago won 7 straight. The Eastern Conference better watch out.
19. Tyreke Evans, SAC
Everyone knows by now about Tyreke’s rookie season, how he averaged a 20-5-5 and was only the fourth rookie ever to do that, and the other three were LeBron, MJ, and Oscar. That’s old news. Now it’s becoming clear that a 20-5-5 might be his ceiling. He’s probably not going to evolve into a 29-7-7 guy like LeBron or a 33-8-7 guy like Michael. This year he’s actually down to 17-4-5, and it’s starting to look like his rookie year might have been a semi-fluke. He’s still great, don’t get me wrong, but he doesn’t appear to be skyrocketing like a 20-5-5 rookie should.
18. Kevin Love, MIN
Just weeks prior to the tipoff of NBA season, I nonchalantly proclaimed that Love would lead the NBA in rebounding. I drafted him 31st overall in my fantasy league. Well, he’s not just leading the league in rebounding. He’s freaking embarrassing everybody else involved.
Love has 7 games of 20 or more rebounds this year (including a whopping 31 back in November). Nobody else has more than 3. He put up 43 points and 17 rebounds against Denver, and then 35 and 15 against Charlotte. Then there was the 23-24, the 32-22, and three other times where he had at least 20 and 20.
Oh, and he also shoots 87% from the free-throw line and 43% from downtown – both top 5 marks in the NBA among big guys. He leads the NBA in double-doubles (and has 25 straight) and is getting better statistically as the season progresses. As I said, I drafted him 31st overall. He currently ranks #3 in standard fantasy basketball scoring. I’m probably a genius.
One last stat - If Love maintains his 15.8 rpg mark (and he will), it will be the best single-season RPG mark since Dennis Rodman back in 1997. So, yeah. Best American-Born White Guy in the NBA, hands down.
17. Russell Westbrook, OKC
A candidate for most improved player, Westbrook continues to make huge strides each season and is now a bona fide top 20 player and top 5 point guard. He’s one of the best “all-around” players, in the purest sense of the word. He’s a double-double machine, whether it’s points-assists or occasionally points-rebounds. He’s basically a younger, more athletic Jason Kidd, without the superhuman court vision, but with a competent jump shot and much better defense. He’s up to 22.2 points per game (2nd among PGs, 12th overall) and 8.3 assists (9th overall), along with 5.1 rebounds (1st among PGs) and 1.93 steals (4th overall). His FT% and FG% are both currently career highs, and he complements Durant so well that it’s scary.
16. Paul Pierce, BOS
Steady scoring, solid defense, well-rounded game. More of the same from Pierce. It’s worth noting that he’s shooting better than 50% from the field for the first time in his career, and also a career-best from the FT line. It’s been nothing but good since last year’s All Star game, when Pierce proclaimed himself “one of the greatest shooters in NBA history.” Hmm… I think 50 or 60 other players might take exception to that.
15 Steve Nash, PHO
In his first year post-Amare, Phoenix has fallen behind Memphis and Houston and currently sits at 11th in the West. For only the second time in 8 years, they’ll likely miss the playoffs.
But I don't blame Nash. He's still one of the best point guards, even at 36 years old. He's putting up almost 11 assists with no great teammates, and shouldering the scoring load when necessary. His complete lack of a big man hasn’t taken away from his assists numbers, but it has kept the Suns from being competitive. Sorry, Robin Lopez. I had big hopes for you, but your ridiculous white-man afro and that fact that you’re dating Michelle Wie just isn’t getting it done.
14. Blake Griffin, LAC
Griffin was drafted #1 overall in 2009, but missed the entire season with a crappy knee injury. People started calling him another typical Clippers bust. But we had no idea what was coming.
This year, technically Griffin’s rookie season, the 21 year old has been an absolute freak of nature, and quickly vaulted into the upper echelon of NBA talent. He has simply been one of the best rookies of all time, and secured a Rookie of the Year landslide back in November when he scored 44 on the Knicks. Here are some numbers to put Griffin’s historically good season in perspective:
Since 1990, only two rookies have averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds, and both are first ballot Hall of Famers. Their names, in case you’re wondering, are Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal. Duncan averaged 21.1 and 11.9, and Shaq 23.4 and 13.9. They went on to win a combined 8 NBA championships and 6 MVPs, with 27 combined All Star appearances.
Griffin is currently the third rookie since 1990 to average a 20 and 10. In fact, he’s actually averaging a 21.9 and 12.7. And he has twice as many assists per game as either Shaq or Duncan had in their rookie campaigns.
He’s become perhaps the Most Fun to Watch player in the NBA, and will become even more adored after he wins the Dunk Competition in February (and he will win). His current streak of double-doubles is at 26 games. He’s also got the best dunk of the year, and probably the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best dunks as well. You should definitely watch this highlight video. *EDIT* Griffin just scored 47 points last night, the most points any player has scored this season.
13. Pau Gasol, LAL
Griffin is more dynamic, more athletic, and more fun, but Gasol gets the nod for the better big man in LA because of his well-roundedness and outside shot. He’s got more assists per game than any other center or power forward, and actually ranks eighth in blocks. So much for the soft, European image. He’s also sixth in rebounding, which is impressive when you consider that he plays less than 30 minutes a game, since the Lakers win so many blowouts. With 18.4 points per game, Gasol ranks 30th in overall scoring, but of the 29 players ahead of him only three (Nowitzki, Howard, Griffin) have better field goal percentages.
12. Rajon Rondo, BOS
Last year Rondo made the leap to officially become Boston’s best player. He led the NBA in steals and was 4th in assists. (It’s hilarious that people still call Garnett, Allen & Pierce the “Big Three.”) In the playoffs Rondo made a considerable push towards becoming the NBA’s best point guard, averaging 15.8 points, 9.3 assists and 5.6 rebounds in 24 playoff games, including the famous 29-13-18 game against Cleveland in which LeBron officially gave up and packed his bags for Miami. Just as Kevin Love stole the rebounding crown away from Dwight Howard early in the year, Rondo took the assists category away from Nash and Paul with a fury. Four games into the season Rondo was already averaging 17 assists, and he hasn’t looked back yet.
But one thing is holding Rondo back, and keeps him out of the top 10. A pretty important part of basketball called scoring. With just 10.9 PPG, and an abysmal 46% free-throw percentage, Rondo is much more likely to be the next Jason Kidd then the next Isaiah Thomas. How can someone be so good at basketball, and shoot just 46% from the line? Bizarre.
11. Amare Stoudemire, NYK
I’ll admit, I was skeptical. When Amare went to New York and couldn’t recruit LeBron to join him, I thought his season would go in the tank. Part of the reason it hasn’t is brilliant coaching, and a big part of the credit belongs to Felton, Chandler, Gallo, and rookie Landry Fields. But let’s give Amare the credit he deserves. If the season ended today, he’d probably win MVP.
However, the season doesn’t end today, and the Knicks are just 6-8 since their 16-9 start to the season. Maybe it was a fluke. Maybe they’ll end up with the 6 or 7 seed and get swept in the first round. Amare still ranks 2nd in scoring this season, 3rd in blocks and 13th in rebounds, but his PPG is down from a gaudy 29.8 in December to a modest 24.3 so far in January. Great season, but I’d like to see some consistency before he cracks the top 10.
10. Carmelo Anthony, DEN?
Speaking of New York, Carmelo is so engulfed in trade rumors that it’s hard to judge the kind of season he’s actually having on the court. It’s likely that by the time I finish this sentence he’ll be on either the Nets or Knicks, but who knows. He’s a great talent and will play phenomenally for whichever team he gets traded to, so I’ll rank him 10th. Should be higher, but a few young players have leaped past him this year.
9. Dwayne Wade, MIA
Speaking of douche bags … wait, I wasn’t speaking of douche bags? Oh, never mind. D-Wade, AKA Flash, AKA LeBron’s bitch, AKA whatever you want to call him, is an overrated punk who puts up incredible stats but I wouldn’t trust to win an important game in the clutch nearly as much as I’d trust the other 8 guys on this list, and probably a dozen others. He’s just overrated. I don’t care who disagrees with me, it’s my list.
8. Deron Williams, UTA
For years I referred to Williams as “The NBA’s Best Kept Secret.” I don’t think it’s a secret anymore. The dude is just flat-out incredible. He’s like Chauncey in his prime, but with much more athleticism and a smoother mid range shot. Most importantly, he’s a winner. The pieces in Utah have changed over the past 5 years, but Williams makes sure they keep winning. Currently they’re tied for 3rd in the West. And Williams is the only reason.
7. Chris Paul, NO
It’s amazing that CP3 is still on the Hornets, after a much-publicized summer in which he announced his plans to be traded. Paul’s numbers are slightly down across the board, but that relates to his lack of aggressiveness on offense. Over the past 4 seasons his FG attempts per game have been 13.6, 16.1, 16.1, and 14.2. This year, just 11.3. As a result, he’s scoring only 16.5 per game, the lowest total since his rookie year. He’s also under 10 assists/game for the first time since 2007. I don’t know what’s up with him. I guess he, like Carmelo, is just waiting for a change of scenery.
6. Dwight Howard, ORL
Still the NBA’s best big man, but no longer a lock for Defensive Player of the Year. That award might go to either Bogut, Josh Smith, or Artest. Howard currently ranks 2nd in rebounding and 5th in blocks, which means the streak of winning both categories will end. His free-throw percentage continues to be his Kryptonite, as he shoots just 58.9% from the line. That’s particularly important because Howard leads the NBA in free-throws attempted.
5. Derrick Rose, CHI
Probably the biggest surprise on this list, but Rose proved he belongs in the top five last week when he single-handedly beat Wade and the Heat with 34 points, including 11 in the fourth quarter. He’s endured injuries to Boozer, Noah, and now Boozer again, and maintained a 24.5 scoring average at just 22 years old. He’s got 8 assists per game, along with 4.5 rebounds, and has made the very unexpected jump from a fringe-top 10 point guard to best overall point guard in just one unbelievable season. Apologies to Williams and Paul and Rondo, but they don’t have the dominant offensive prowess of Rose. Chicago has a 10 game lead in the Central Division, and remember, Boozer and Noah have both spent over a month in street clothes. That team is going to be scary good for a long time.
4. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
Forget ‘Best White Guy in the NBA.’ That’s a lock. Dirk is on his way to claiming a spot among the Top Five White Guys of all Time. (The list goes like this: #1 Larry Bird; #2 Jerry West; #3 Bob Cousy; #4 John Stockton; #5 John Havlicek; #6 Pete Maravich; #7 Kevin McHale, #8 Steve Nash…) I know this list is supposed to reflect 2010 and not be a lifetime achievement thing, but Dirk is averaging 23+ points for the 7th straight year and that’s pretty impressive. If he plays three more seasons at this pace, he’ll be in the top 10 in NBA history in points scored. Remember, he’s only 32 years old. And he’s a jump shooter, so playing until he’s 38 isn’t out of the question.
But for strictly 2010 purposes, all Dirk is doing is shooting a career best 54% from the field and 87.6% from the FT line, while keeping Dallas at 4th in the West despite injuries and general mediocrity around him. They are a perennial contender and shouldn’t be taken lightly.
3. LeBron James, MIA
It’s been a horrible past twelve months for LBJ. To recap: quit halfway through the playoffs; staged an ego-maniacal press conference to announce his ‘decision’ which instantly vaulted him into the top 5 most hated athletes in America (along with a rapist, a dog-killer, a sex addict, and Terrell Owens); turned the Heat into the most universally-hated sports franchise since … well, ever; began the season 9-8 when some people (myself included) didn’t think they’d lose 8 games all year. His scoring per game has dropped 4.3 points and his MVP chances are decimated for this year and the next 5 years, thus crippling any chance he has of ever being in the Michael Jordan Discussion for greatest player ever. He’s widely considered Dwayne Wade’s sidekick (although LeBron is obviously the better player) and he’s fervently booed everywhere he goes, including his hometown, who greeted him with chants of “Ak-ron hates you” when he returned to Cleveland.
But there is good news for LeBron: He leads the entire league in one very important statistical category. That would be … turnovers.
2. Kevin Durant, OKC
Isn’t it weird that he’s leading the NBA in scoring and I’m somehow disappointed? Durant is averaging 28.5 ppg, but I honestly expected 32 or more. In 37 games so far, he’s scored at least 20 in 34 of them. He’s been at 30 or more in 15 contests. His percentages are just a hair lower than last season, and he’s attempted slightly fewer field goals and free throws per game. But let’s not forget that he’s well on his way to a second straight scoring title, and he’s not doing it selfishly. In the past 15 years of basketball, the way to win a scoring title was by taking the most shots. (See: Kobe in 2006, Iverson in 2004, TMac in 2002) But Durant is currently fifth in the NBA in field goal attempts, with only 21 more shot attempts than his own teammate, but still the leading scorer by a comfortable margin. A big part of that is Durant knows how to get to the free throw line, and when he gets there he’s near-perfect. No other small forward comes close to Durant’s 88.1% FT percentage. This year Durant has stepped up his game from a scoring machine on a losing team to a scoring machine on a winning team, and that’s one of the most difficult transitions for a star player to make. I can’t wait to watch OKC in the playoffs.
1. Kobe Bryant, LA
I could mention the effortless scoring, the steady winning, or the fact that Kobe is a legitimate contender for Defensive MVP. But only one statistic needs to be mentioned: two-time defending NBA Finals MVP. As Kobe sneaks into his mid 30s, this might be his last season at the #1 spot. But for this year, he’s definitely earned it.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Monday, January 17, 2011
Worst Football Weekend Ever
Not only did I go 0-4, but my three least favorite teams all won. Now all my hopes rest on the Packers. The only thing that could have made this a worse football weekend would have been the Lions giving Matthew Stafford a 9-year extension.
Now the only question left for me to decide is, who do I hate the most: Jay Cutler, Rex Ryan, or Steelers' fans in general? It's a very tough debate, one that I'll address later on. For now, I'll just say Happy MLK Day, and go go go Packers.
Now the only question left for me to decide is, who do I hate the most: Jay Cutler, Rex Ryan, or Steelers' fans in general? It's a very tough debate, one that I'll address later on. For now, I'll just say Happy MLK Day, and go go go Packers.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Lions Targeting Nnamdi Asomugha?
Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, who I ranked as the number six player in the NFL back in June, is an unrestricted free agent on the open market. Because he missed certain contract incentives, his humongous deal is voided, and he has basically said that he wants out of Oakland. He'll hit the market shortly after the Super Bowl. According to Tom Kowalski, the Lions have a shot.
Before I dive into the Lions potential chances, let's re-examine what makes Asomugha so good. First off, let's practice saying his name, just in case he becomes a Lion and we need to know that kind of thing. Nnamdi is pronounced "nahm-dee" (simple enough, just drop the first 'N') and Asomugha is "ah-sum-mwa," kind of like "awesome" with a kissing sound at the end.
So why is he so good? It's the combination of intelligence, technique, work ethic, size, instincts, and speed. A good comparison might be Nick Lidstrom from the Red Wings. He simply never makes a mistake; he's never out of position. Asomugha has been called the best cornerback in the NFL by both Peyton Manning and Bill Belichick, and a million other guys. From 2007 to 2009, Asomugha surrendered only 31 total completions - an average of 2 completions every 3 games. He was thrown at an average of 1.8 times per game.
In 2010, Asomugha played only 14 games because of a minor injury, but he had perhaps his best season to date. He allowed 10 completions on 27 passes thrown in his direction, and most importantly, zero touchdowns allowed. He was a unanimous All Pro, and easily leapfrogged Revis to reclaim his status as the best CB in the NFL. He's the second best defensive player in the league, behind only Troy Polamalu. And it's pretty close.
As I said earlier, Asomugha isn't just talented - he's smart. As in, he graduated from the University of California-Berkeley with a BA in Corporate Finance, and he did it in 3 years. He's the chairman of the Orphans and Widows in Need Foundation (OWIN). He meets with former Presidents about the importance of global activism. His private foundation helps under-resourced kids apply and enroll at colleges. He's a freaking real-life hero. No wonder he's been nominated for virtually every community service award the NFL has. Oh and by the way, he drives a 1997 Nissan Maxima.
He's just an all-around phenomenal person, on and off the field. But for the purposes I'm most interested in, let's focus ON the field.
At 6'2", he's one of the NFL's tallest cornerbacks, and he uses his long arms to initiate contact at the line of scrimmage and jam bigger receivers. He has the speed (4.38 40 time) and reflexes to hang with the quickest guys in the game.
Perhaps the NFL's most talented receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, said of Asomugha: "for a man of his size, he has incredible hips and amazingly quick feet.”
Browns' defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (Rex's brother) said: "The guy is truly unbelievable. He made himself the best corner in football by his work ethic, the way he studies tape, and he's so smart."
Soon-to-be-fired Texans' coach Gary Kubiak said: "Asomugha is the best corner I've seen throughout this league. He's big, he's fast, they put him out there on an island the whole game. He's an exceptional player."
The quotes go on and on. No one would dispute his talent or his dominance. But for some strange reason, only a few teams have been rumored to have interest in him during free agency. It probably has to do with money more than anything.
The Patriots, Packers, Jets and Cowboys have all been linked to the rumor, but that's just because those are high-profile teams that get a lot of attention. I've also heard Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Miami - but do those teams have the cap space? Detroit actually makes more sense, and that's not just me being a homer.
Asomugha is tired of losing, and tired of being forced to play run support in Oakland. Because of the Lions' 4-game winning streak to end the season, Asomugha might perceive us as a legitimate contender for the next few years. In Oakland, he was asked to do everything, from coverage to run-support to zone. In Detroit, he'd be asked to do one thing: man-to-man coverage. That's his style. He's sick of anemic coaching and obtuse ownership. So with all that being said, here are eight iron-clad reasons why Asomugha should, and in fact WILL, be a Detroit Lion next year.
8) He has the rare opportunity to move from the worst owner in football to the 2nd worst owner in football!
7) Being a part of the rebuilding process for both the team and the city.
6) Ndamokung Suh could be his personal enforcer. No but seriously, playing behind that awesome Lions' defensive line is a cornerback's dream come true.
5) Facing Jay Cutler and a Vikings-QB-To-Be-Named-Later means 4 games a year against inaccurate retards.
4) Gets to play against Matt Stafford in practice - ten interceptions a day.
3) No longer has to worry about Revis and Champ Bailey when it comes to Pro Bowl voting. Automatic in the NFC.
2) No chance of playing against Brady or Manning in the playoffs. Much easier to make the playoffs in the NFC.
1) The chance to be coached by Schwartz and Cunningham, two defensive masterminds.
I don't need to say all the obvious reasons why Detroit should go full-force after Asomugha. That speaks for itself. But here's why this really actually might happen:
Lions' new management, Mayhew and Lewand, like to address the team's biggest needs in free agency, so they can spend draft picks on the best player available. It's a strategy that landed us VandenBosch and Burleson last year, so we could draft Best. It's something they'd like to do again.
Cornerback is obviously a huge need for Detroit. Landing the NFL's best cornerback not only makes us an instant Top 10 defense, but it allows us to spend our first and second round picks on the best players available, and beef up the front 7 without worrying about the secondary.
In essence, the smartest thing Detroit could do is spend every single dollar we have on this guy, and figure out the rest later. Don't let some jackass like Jerry Jones outbid you! Go for it William Clay Ford!!
If not, I guess we could always roll with this guy again.
Before I dive into the Lions potential chances, let's re-examine what makes Asomugha so good. First off, let's practice saying his name, just in case he becomes a Lion and we need to know that kind of thing. Nnamdi is pronounced "nahm-dee" (simple enough, just drop the first 'N') and Asomugha is "ah-sum-mwa," kind of like "awesome" with a kissing sound at the end.
So why is he so good? It's the combination of intelligence, technique, work ethic, size, instincts, and speed. A good comparison might be Nick Lidstrom from the Red Wings. He simply never makes a mistake; he's never out of position. Asomugha has been called the best cornerback in the NFL by both Peyton Manning and Bill Belichick, and a million other guys. From 2007 to 2009, Asomugha surrendered only 31 total completions - an average of 2 completions every 3 games. He was thrown at an average of 1.8 times per game.
In 2010, Asomugha played only 14 games because of a minor injury, but he had perhaps his best season to date. He allowed 10 completions on 27 passes thrown in his direction, and most importantly, zero touchdowns allowed. He was a unanimous All Pro, and easily leapfrogged Revis to reclaim his status as the best CB in the NFL. He's the second best defensive player in the league, behind only Troy Polamalu. And it's pretty close.
As I said earlier, Asomugha isn't just talented - he's smart. As in, he graduated from the University of California-Berkeley with a BA in Corporate Finance, and he did it in 3 years. He's the chairman of the Orphans and Widows in Need Foundation (OWIN). He meets with former Presidents about the importance of global activism. His private foundation helps under-resourced kids apply and enroll at colleges. He's a freaking real-life hero. No wonder he's been nominated for virtually every community service award the NFL has. Oh and by the way, he drives a 1997 Nissan Maxima.
He's just an all-around phenomenal person, on and off the field. But for the purposes I'm most interested in, let's focus ON the field.
At 6'2", he's one of the NFL's tallest cornerbacks, and he uses his long arms to initiate contact at the line of scrimmage and jam bigger receivers. He has the speed (4.38 40 time) and reflexes to hang with the quickest guys in the game.
Perhaps the NFL's most talented receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, said of Asomugha: "for a man of his size, he has incredible hips and amazingly quick feet.”
Browns' defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (Rex's brother) said: "The guy is truly unbelievable. He made himself the best corner in football by his work ethic, the way he studies tape, and he's so smart."
Soon-to-be-fired Texans' coach Gary Kubiak said: "Asomugha is the best corner I've seen throughout this league. He's big, he's fast, they put him out there on an island the whole game. He's an exceptional player."
The quotes go on and on. No one would dispute his talent or his dominance. But for some strange reason, only a few teams have been rumored to have interest in him during free agency. It probably has to do with money more than anything.
The Patriots, Packers, Jets and Cowboys have all been linked to the rumor, but that's just because those are high-profile teams that get a lot of attention. I've also heard Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Miami - but do those teams have the cap space? Detroit actually makes more sense, and that's not just me being a homer.
Asomugha is tired of losing, and tired of being forced to play run support in Oakland. Because of the Lions' 4-game winning streak to end the season, Asomugha might perceive us as a legitimate contender for the next few years. In Oakland, he was asked to do everything, from coverage to run-support to zone. In Detroit, he'd be asked to do one thing: man-to-man coverage. That's his style. He's sick of anemic coaching and obtuse ownership. So with all that being said, here are eight iron-clad reasons why Asomugha should, and in fact WILL, be a Detroit Lion next year.
8) He has the rare opportunity to move from the worst owner in football to the 2nd worst owner in football!
7) Being a part of the rebuilding process for both the team and the city.
6) Ndamokung Suh could be his personal enforcer. No but seriously, playing behind that awesome Lions' defensive line is a cornerback's dream come true.
5) Facing Jay Cutler and a Vikings-QB-To-Be-Named-Later means 4 games a year against inaccurate retards.
4) Gets to play against Matt Stafford in practice - ten interceptions a day.
3) No longer has to worry about Revis and Champ Bailey when it comes to Pro Bowl voting. Automatic in the NFC.
2) No chance of playing against Brady or Manning in the playoffs. Much easier to make the playoffs in the NFC.
1) The chance to be coached by Schwartz and Cunningham, two defensive masterminds.
I don't need to say all the obvious reasons why Detroit should go full-force after Asomugha. That speaks for itself. But here's why this really actually might happen:
Lions' new management, Mayhew and Lewand, like to address the team's biggest needs in free agency, so they can spend draft picks on the best player available. It's a strategy that landed us VandenBosch and Burleson last year, so we could draft Best. It's something they'd like to do again.
Cornerback is obviously a huge need for Detroit. Landing the NFL's best cornerback not only makes us an instant Top 10 defense, but it allows us to spend our first and second round picks on the best players available, and beef up the front 7 without worrying about the secondary.
In essence, the smartest thing Detroit could do is spend every single dollar we have on this guy, and figure out the rest later. Don't let some jackass like Jerry Jones outbid you! Go for it William Clay Ford!!
If not, I guess we could always roll with this guy again.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Playoff Picks: Part Two ... and some NFL Draft thoughts
After a 4-0 first round, I'm now looking ahead to the goal of a Perfect Postseason: 11-0. Probably not going to happen, but I'm feeling confident after the Wildcard round. To recap:
Jets 17, Colts 16.
I picked: Jets by 1.
Packers 21, Eagles 16.
I picked: Packers by 4.
Ravens 30, Chiefs 7.
I picked: Ravens by 24.
So for those three games, I was off by a TOTAL of two points.
And for the unspeakably weird Seattle game, I picked the Seahawks to cover and cover they did. In a big way. Seahawks 41, Saints 36. By the way... was this game the fulfillment of the Madden Curse?
Both Super Bowl teams from a year ago are now eliminated (although, this was the first year in a decade that both previous Super teams actually made the playoffs) and everyone's favorite dog-killer is also gone. Brady and Rodgers are now the only truly elite quarterbacks remaining, with Ryan and Flacco knocking on the door. As for Roethlisberger, I don't mean any disrespect, but his defense is carrying the team and everyone knows it. The other three remaining quarterbacks are considerably below average.
It is a quarterback league, but we just saw Hasselbeck outduel Brees and Sanchez beat Manning. Anything can happen. Never underestimate the power of "nobody believed in us!" syndrome. With that, let's get to the Divisional round picks.
Ravens (13-4) @ Steelers (12-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3
Somehow, I've known this would be a playoff game all season, and I've been trying to figure out the pick. I feel like I have a pretty good read on both teams, and yet picking this game is darn near impossible. Here's the situation:
Both teams have ridiculously good run defenses - among the best ever. Both teams have elite safeties who patrol the secondary. Both teams blitz the passer remarkably well. Both defenses are led by Hall of Famers.
Both offenses like to run the ball to set up the deep pass. Both teams have a dynamic downfield receiver and a steady possession guy. Both teams have mediocre tight ends. Both teams have solid but not spectacular running backs. Both teams are extremely well-coached, and make very few mistakes.
This game is in Pittsburgh, but the road team won the matchup both times during the regular season, so I'm writing that off as a non-factor. These teams know each other and hate each other, and this game promises to be full of violence.
My initial analysis is this: Baltimore has fewer weaknesses. In reality, they have none. Flacco isn't great, but he's not a weakness. The cornerbacks aren't great, but they do okay. The receiving crew could be better, but it's good.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a few glaring weaknesses which they've effectively covered up all year. The offensive line is bad. Really bad. And the pass defense sans Polamalu is also bad. Because of those things, the running backs struggle to convert short-down situations, and the cornerbacks get beat in single coverage. They routinely put Roethlisberger in unfavorable situations, and he tends to be at his best with his back against the wall. Especially when his back is against the wall of a dirty bathroom stall in Georgia. Ew, gross.
I'm fairly sure that Baltimore is the better overall team, on paper. They may not have as many studs, but they have less question marks.
But because of the style of game this will be, I'm also leaning towards picking Pittsburgh. It's going to be low-scoring; that's a given. But it's also going to be smart, methodical, slow-paced, and precise. Both teams play extremely carefully on offense. This game is going to come down to one thing: big plays.
It might be a punt return, or a blocked punt, or a kickoff return. It might be a defensive touchdown, or a botched snap, or an 85 yard pass where the defender trips over his own feet. I don't know. But I know this game will be dictated by what happens on two or three key plays which cover a lot of yards.
And that's where I lean towards Pittsburgh. I just think they have more players with a knack for the dramatic. Polamalu, obviously, but also Mike Wallace and James Harrison and James Farrior, and of course Roethlisberger. Big Ben seems to thrive in the clutch, while Joe Flacco seems a little afraid of it. Will this be the game he evolves into a truly elite quarterback?
This seems like an ideal time to mention that Flacco is 0-5 lifetime against Ben.
Baltimore's stud players, like Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata and Anquan Boldin and Terrell Suggs, are great players, but not really 'big-play' guys. Ed Reed is their exception. I don't see Derrick Mason catching a 15 yard hook, breaking a tackle, and running 60 yards to the endzone. No way. But Hines Ward? That wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Games between Pittsburgh and Baltimore are always close. 6 of their last 7 meetings have been decided by 4 points or less, including 4 straight which have been won by exactly 3 points. So picking Baltimore and takings the points seems like the easy choice. Especially because the Pittsburgh crowd will probably cause more harm than help, because they're all so stupid they won't know when to cheer and when to be quiet. If all the Ravens wore big black wigs the fans wouldn't even know who to cheer for. "Is 'at Troy? Which 'un's Troy? Don 'er? Ower 'er? ... YINS 'ER ALL TROY!! "
(Translation: Is that Troy? Which one's Troy? Down there? Over here? You are all Troy!")
The moral dilemma: if pick the team I hate, at least I'll get one win. Either I get the pick right, or the satisfaction of Pittsburgh losing. But with 11-0 in sight, I can't employ any tricks. I've just got to pick the game the best I can. And here's my final answer:
Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 17.
Packers (11-6) @ Falcons (13-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by 6.5
Actual Line: ATL by 2
The NFL playoffs have two major flaws. One of them was on full display last weekend, as Seattle rode their crowd to a shocking win that never would have happened in New Orleans. The Saints went up 17-7, and in the Superdome that would have been game-over. But in Qwest it didn't mean anything, and Seattle came back and won. Blame that game on the faulty system.
I know, I know, the Saints should have won. The road teams won the other 3 Wildcard games, and they have nobody to blame but themselves. I get all that. But the system is still messed up, and the Saints deserved to have a home game. They won 4 more games than Seattle. If they were at home, they undoubtedly would have won.
The second flaw is seen in full display in this game. Here you have the best team in the NFC (record-wise) playing the 11-6 Packers, while the Bears get to play the 8-9 Seahawks. How is that fair? Why should matchups be based on seeding and not record, when the seeding is obviously a flawed system to begin with? Chicago basically gets a free pass to the NFC Championship because of a completely retarded system! While Atlanta technically DESERVES to host Seattle. What is the point of going 13-3 if it earns you a game against Green Bay instead of Seattle? Atlanta would have been better off losing 2 games on purpose!
Stupid, stupid, stupid system. Goddell needs to make a fix. It wouldn't be hard to do, and it wouldn't hurt anybody's feelings. So just do it Roger.
Maybe I'm just bitter because Chicago doesn't even belong in the playoffs, much less in the NFC Championship. Anyway, we'll get to them later.
For this game, I was way too low on the line because I figured Atlanta's 13-3 season and Matt Ryan's 18-2 record at home earns them some respect. Apparently not. Green Bay beat the beloved dog murderer and now they have America's backing. Further proof that people inexplicably love Michael Vick.
One of the biggest matchups in this game is the Packers' improving-but-not-yet-great run defense against Michael Turner, who should get 30 carries at least. That will be paramount for both teams. Atlanta will obviously want to keep their defense on the sideline and win time of possession. That's the key to beating a great offense. And Green Bay will want to keep Turner from shredding their defense and exposing the CBs to one-on-one coverage. Don't make Matt Ryan's job any easier than you have to.
I expect Green Bay to abandon the running game and throw early and often. They know Aaron Rodgers is their only chance of winning a difficult road postseason game. Give your best player the ball, and hope for big plays. Atlanta's secondary is just okay (22nd in yards, 14th in QB rating), and their pass rush is average (20th in sacks). Their run defense is a strength, but Green Bay probably only needs to run the ball 10-15 times with Starks and Jackson to keep the secondary just a little bit honest. Key matchups will be Dunta Robinson against Greg Jennings, John Abraham against Chad Clifton, and Donald Driver/James Jones against Brent Grimes/William Moore. I tend to think Green Bay has the advantage in all those matchups, but it's close.
When Atlanta has the ball, it'll obviously be Charles Woodson trying to contain Roddy White, with plenty of help from the safeties. Sam Baker has the unenviable task of blocking Clay Matthews, and Tony Gonzalez will probably match up with A.J. Hawk and/or Desmond Bishop. Green Bay has the defense to limit Atlanta's high-flying offense, just like they did last week in Philly. Matthews is the key; he's basically unblockable. He dominated Jason Peters, and should do the same thing to Baker.
That's why the key to this game is the interior running game for Atlanta. How will Turner do on 1st and 10 runs up the middle? His YPC will dictate everything.
My gut feeling is that a rested Michael Turner has a huge game, something like 32 carries for 160 yards, and he limits Green Bay's offense by keeping them off the field. Rodgers keeps the game very close, but Atlanta's homefield makes the difference.
Final score: Falcons 28, Packers 24.
So I'll take the Falcons (-2), thanks to the surprisingly low spread.
Seahawks (8-9) @ Bears (11-5)
Predicted Line: CHI by 9.5
Actual Line: CHI by 10
What a joke.
Final score: Bears 23, Seahawks 16.
I'm taking the Seahawks to cover again.
Jets (12-5) @ Patriots (14-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5
Actual Line: NE by 8.5
Once again, Rex Ryan is making this game all about him. Last week he said it was "personal" against Peyton Manning. This week, he used the same word in reference to his matchup with Bellichick. The funny thing is, he's absolutely correct in both games. But why does he need to broadcast it? Why steal the headlines from your deserving players? They are the ones who beat the Colts. I'm so sick of Rex. How awful is it that my 3 least favorite teams (Pittsburgh, Chicago, NY Jets) are all in the final 8. At least two of them will likely be in the final 4. Ugggghh.
I've decided not to talk about Rex anymore, and instead focus on the real reason why the Jets went 11-5 and beat the Colts in Indy. Their freaking players.
For starters, they have the league's best center in Nick Mangold. He might be a top 20 overall player. He is dominant. They also have bonafide studs at LT and RG. That's why they can run the ball effectively no matter who the backs are. Just ask Thomas Jones about that.
They also have arguably the league's best receiving crew. I racked my brain to think of which teams were better in the WR/TE department, and I came up with maybe Indy, Dallas or Green Bay. But all of those teams were hit with injuries. The Jets haven't sustained a single meaningful injury to their offense all season. That's why a very mediocre Mark Sanchez has led his team to 3 playoff wins in two seasons. (By contrast Matt Stafford has led his team to 3 TOTAL wins in two seasons.)
Defensively, the Jets have a top 10 overall player at cornerback in Darelle Revis. He's their lynchpin. I don't think he's quite as good as Asomugha, but he's the #2 corner in the league, and he wins his individual matchup against the receiver 49 times out of 50. Across from Revis is Cromartie, who is a top 10 cornerback in his own right. Then you add 3 stud linebackers and a solid safety, and you have an all-around very good defense.
That's why the Jets went 11-5. Mangold and Revis, Holmes and Scott, Keller and Harris. Not Rex Ryan. It's about the players, and they have darn good players.
I'm not saying Rex isn't a great coach. He is. He motivates and inspires, maybe even to a fault. And he knows defense. He really knows defense.
I'm just saying he's making this all about him, and it's just so dang annoying. He dominates headlines so much that I just wrote 435 words without even mentioning the 14-2 Patriots, who quietly had one of the most efficient offensive seasons in NFL history, and who beat the Jets 45-3 a couple months ago.
New England finished the season on a eight game winning streak (talk about momentum) in which they won by an average of 22 points and scored at least 31 in each contest. Tom Brady hasn't thrown an interception since October 17. He's thrown 26 touchdowns since his last INT, and 326 attempts. I'm not even going to bother looking it up; I'm just going to assume those are both NFL records.
You always see quarterbacks throwing interceptions that "aren't their fault." Dropped balls, the receiver fell down, etc. Especially if you're a Lions fan, you can easily justify a 3 INT game. So how is it that Brady throws 326 passes without a single pick? Is he just really lucky? Somehow, I don't think that's it.
Could it be that his knowledge of the game and the opposing defense is so encyclopedic that he doesn't throw a pass unless he knows the outcome of his pass before he even throws it? He knows his receiver will fall down before he actually falls down? I don't know. I'm just speculating. It's a magnificent accomplishment, and a standard to which other quarterbacks should be held when they throw "not-their-fault" interceptions. And yes, this was a thinly veiled attack on Matthew Stafford.
I could analyze the heck out of this game, talk about matchups and all that jazz. But bottom line: it's Brady against Sanchez. In Foxboro, where Brady has won 28 straight games (another NFL record). I think this will be a Brady/Belichick classic beatdown, and we won't have to see Rex's face until next September, when he guarantees another Super Bowl for the Jets.
Final score: Patriots 37, Jets 6.
......
Now for a section called: Detroit Lions: 2011 Draft
First off, I'd like to apologize for misleading you for the past month into thinking the Lions will draft Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi in the first round. I've had a change of heart, and I no longer think that will be the pick. Allow me to explain.
For one thing, Jeff Backus wasn't as bad this season as we all think. When Stafford got hurt week 1 and it was clearly Backus's fault, we were all ready for a change. I wrote back then: "Stafford didn't even survive one half of 2010 football without a serious injury...Blame Jeff Backus."
But in a recent survey among NFC North experts, Jeff Backus was voted the best left tackle in the division, and surprisingly, I'd have to agree. The Lions actually had 8 winners of the 22 starting positions, whereas in the past two years they had 6 combined. This team really is improving.
I don't suddenly love Backus and want him to start at LT for another 5 years, don't get me wrong - I'm merely saying that offensive line isn't the team's biggest area of need. And thus, I no longer think Carimi is the right pick at #13. Here are a few reasons why:
1) Scouts aren't even sure if Carimi is the best LT in this draft class. Others think Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State is better, or Nate Solder from Colorado. Boston College's Anthony Castonzo has even got first-round mention.
2) Carimi is a reach at #13. In looking at five or six mock drafts, the earliest I've seen Carimi (or any LT) go is 17th. It appears highly likely that one of the top 4 LTs will be around for Detroit's second-round pick.
3) There's a ton of talent at the Lions' other positions of need - namely CB and OLB - which should be available at pick 13. If either of the elite CBs drop to 13 (highly unlikely) or if DE Robert Quinn somehow slips (also unlikely), it would be too good to pass up. What works in the Lions favor is having so many teams ahead of us who need QBs, and so many QBs with supposed first-round talent. Between Newton, Mallet, Gabbert, and Locker all possibly going before Detroit, and receiver AJ Green definitely going in the top 5, that leaves only 8 or 9 defensive players before Detroit. We can hope receiver Julio Jones goes in the top 12 also, and maybe Mark Ingram. Detroit might actually get the 6th defensive player in this draft, which would be awesome.
We know Nick Fairley is going top 5, and likely Da'Quan Bowers as well. Patrick Peterson is highly unlikely to escape the top 9 (with Dallas needing a CB), but they might prefer Prince Amukamara who has better coverage skills. The ideal situation for the Lions is if one of those players, preferably Amukamara, falls to #13. That would happen if the QBs go early, and teams take DE/OLBs instead of CBs.
According to the many mock drafts I've seen, the Lions have a legitimately decent chance of landing a bonafide top 5 talent with pick 13. But if Quinn, Fairley, Bowers, Peterson and Amukamara are all gone - which they probably will be - it becomes a much more difficult decision.
Then, we'll have to decide between a left tackle (probably Carimi, maybe one of the other guys) or an OLB or CB. The best corners would be either Jenkins from Florida or Harris from Miami. The best OLBs include Von Miller from Texas A&M, Ackeem Ayers from UCLA, or Justin Houston from Georgia.
It's well-documented how OLB-heavy this draft class is, so Detroit's smartest strategy might be to wait on that position until the second or third round, and take Carimi at 13. One thing's for sure - Detroit NEEDS two starting outside linebackers next season. Julian Peterson is gone, and Zach Follet is a reserve at best, plus he's hurt. We can make do with Backus, and Chris Houston can retain at least one CB job. But we don't have any OLBs.
It's impossible to predict who will be available at pick #13, but if I had to guess right now, I'd say the Lions take Von Miller from Texas A&M - winner of the Butkus Award for the nation's best linebacker. He often gets compared to Clay Matthews. It's been said that "66% of the world is covered by water, the rest is covered by Von Miller." Check out these highlights of Von for excitement-building purposes.
With pick #44, we'll take either a CB (Aaron Williams from Texas?) or an LT (Tyron Smith, USC?). We might even take another OLB if we like the available talent. A lot will depend on what happens in free agency over the next 3 months. Some folks speculate that Detroit will pick up Albert Haynesworth and his horrible contract, which would obviously change our entire defense.
Also, don't discount the possibility that the Lions might trade up in the first round to land a stud like Bowers or Quinn. They could swap with #5 Arizona (who might want to trade backwards and wait for a QB) or with #7 San Francisco (for the same reason), or even #10 Washington (same thing again). This would be wise, because the two teams directly ahead of Detroit (Houston and Minnesota) have similar needs. Both teams need CBs and OLBs. It would be great if we could jump ahead and take Amukamara.
Okay, that's enough Draft talk for now. Still got 3 months to wait.
My Mock Draft is coming soon-ish. Probably not until late February.
Go Lions.
And Ravens, Patriots and Seahawks....
Jets 17, Colts 16.
I picked: Jets by 1.
Packers 21, Eagles 16.
I picked: Packers by 4.
Ravens 30, Chiefs 7.
I picked: Ravens by 24.
So for those three games, I was off by a TOTAL of two points.
And for the unspeakably weird Seattle game, I picked the Seahawks to cover and cover they did. In a big way. Seahawks 41, Saints 36. By the way... was this game the fulfillment of the Madden Curse?
Both Super Bowl teams from a year ago are now eliminated (although, this was the first year in a decade that both previous Super teams actually made the playoffs) and everyone's favorite dog-killer is also gone. Brady and Rodgers are now the only truly elite quarterbacks remaining, with Ryan and Flacco knocking on the door. As for Roethlisberger, I don't mean any disrespect, but his defense is carrying the team and everyone knows it. The other three remaining quarterbacks are considerably below average.
It is a quarterback league, but we just saw Hasselbeck outduel Brees and Sanchez beat Manning. Anything can happen. Never underestimate the power of "nobody believed in us!" syndrome. With that, let's get to the Divisional round picks.
Ravens (13-4) @ Steelers (12-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3
Somehow, I've known this would be a playoff game all season, and I've been trying to figure out the pick. I feel like I have a pretty good read on both teams, and yet picking this game is darn near impossible. Here's the situation:
Both teams have ridiculously good run defenses - among the best ever. Both teams have elite safeties who patrol the secondary. Both teams blitz the passer remarkably well. Both defenses are led by Hall of Famers.
Both offenses like to run the ball to set up the deep pass. Both teams have a dynamic downfield receiver and a steady possession guy. Both teams have mediocre tight ends. Both teams have solid but not spectacular running backs. Both teams are extremely well-coached, and make very few mistakes.
This game is in Pittsburgh, but the road team won the matchup both times during the regular season, so I'm writing that off as a non-factor. These teams know each other and hate each other, and this game promises to be full of violence.
My initial analysis is this: Baltimore has fewer weaknesses. In reality, they have none. Flacco isn't great, but he's not a weakness. The cornerbacks aren't great, but they do okay. The receiving crew could be better, but it's good.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a few glaring weaknesses which they've effectively covered up all year. The offensive line is bad. Really bad. And the pass defense sans Polamalu is also bad. Because of those things, the running backs struggle to convert short-down situations, and the cornerbacks get beat in single coverage. They routinely put Roethlisberger in unfavorable situations, and he tends to be at his best with his back against the wall. Especially when his back is against the wall of a dirty bathroom stall in Georgia. Ew, gross.
I'm fairly sure that Baltimore is the better overall team, on paper. They may not have as many studs, but they have less question marks.
But because of the style of game this will be, I'm also leaning towards picking Pittsburgh. It's going to be low-scoring; that's a given. But it's also going to be smart, methodical, slow-paced, and precise. Both teams play extremely carefully on offense. This game is going to come down to one thing: big plays.
It might be a punt return, or a blocked punt, or a kickoff return. It might be a defensive touchdown, or a botched snap, or an 85 yard pass where the defender trips over his own feet. I don't know. But I know this game will be dictated by what happens on two or three key plays which cover a lot of yards.
And that's where I lean towards Pittsburgh. I just think they have more players with a knack for the dramatic. Polamalu, obviously, but also Mike Wallace and James Harrison and James Farrior, and of course Roethlisberger. Big Ben seems to thrive in the clutch, while Joe Flacco seems a little afraid of it. Will this be the game he evolves into a truly elite quarterback?
This seems like an ideal time to mention that Flacco is 0-5 lifetime against Ben.
Baltimore's stud players, like Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata and Anquan Boldin and Terrell Suggs, are great players, but not really 'big-play' guys. Ed Reed is their exception. I don't see Derrick Mason catching a 15 yard hook, breaking a tackle, and running 60 yards to the endzone. No way. But Hines Ward? That wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Games between Pittsburgh and Baltimore are always close. 6 of their last 7 meetings have been decided by 4 points or less, including 4 straight which have been won by exactly 3 points. So picking Baltimore and takings the points seems like the easy choice. Especially because the Pittsburgh crowd will probably cause more harm than help, because they're all so stupid they won't know when to cheer and when to be quiet. If all the Ravens wore big black wigs the fans wouldn't even know who to cheer for. "Is 'at Troy? Which 'un's Troy? Don 'er? Ower 'er? ... YINS 'ER ALL TROY!! "
(Translation: Is that Troy? Which one's Troy? Down there? Over here? You are all Troy!")
The moral dilemma: if pick the team I hate, at least I'll get one win. Either I get the pick right, or the satisfaction of Pittsburgh losing. But with 11-0 in sight, I can't employ any tricks. I've just got to pick the game the best I can. And here's my final answer:
Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 17.
Packers (11-6) @ Falcons (13-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by 6.5
Actual Line: ATL by 2
The NFL playoffs have two major flaws. One of them was on full display last weekend, as Seattle rode their crowd to a shocking win that never would have happened in New Orleans. The Saints went up 17-7, and in the Superdome that would have been game-over. But in Qwest it didn't mean anything, and Seattle came back and won. Blame that game on the faulty system.
I know, I know, the Saints should have won. The road teams won the other 3 Wildcard games, and they have nobody to blame but themselves. I get all that. But the system is still messed up, and the Saints deserved to have a home game. They won 4 more games than Seattle. If they were at home, they undoubtedly would have won.
The second flaw is seen in full display in this game. Here you have the best team in the NFC (record-wise) playing the 11-6 Packers, while the Bears get to play the 8-9 Seahawks. How is that fair? Why should matchups be based on seeding and not record, when the seeding is obviously a flawed system to begin with? Chicago basically gets a free pass to the NFC Championship because of a completely retarded system! While Atlanta technically DESERVES to host Seattle. What is the point of going 13-3 if it earns you a game against Green Bay instead of Seattle? Atlanta would have been better off losing 2 games on purpose!
Stupid, stupid, stupid system. Goddell needs to make a fix. It wouldn't be hard to do, and it wouldn't hurt anybody's feelings. So just do it Roger.
Maybe I'm just bitter because Chicago doesn't even belong in the playoffs, much less in the NFC Championship. Anyway, we'll get to them later.
For this game, I was way too low on the line because I figured Atlanta's 13-3 season and Matt Ryan's 18-2 record at home earns them some respect. Apparently not. Green Bay beat the beloved dog murderer and now they have America's backing. Further proof that people inexplicably love Michael Vick.
One of the biggest matchups in this game is the Packers' improving-but-not-yet-great run defense against Michael Turner, who should get 30 carries at least. That will be paramount for both teams. Atlanta will obviously want to keep their defense on the sideline and win time of possession. That's the key to beating a great offense. And Green Bay will want to keep Turner from shredding their defense and exposing the CBs to one-on-one coverage. Don't make Matt Ryan's job any easier than you have to.
I expect Green Bay to abandon the running game and throw early and often. They know Aaron Rodgers is their only chance of winning a difficult road postseason game. Give your best player the ball, and hope for big plays. Atlanta's secondary is just okay (22nd in yards, 14th in QB rating), and their pass rush is average (20th in sacks). Their run defense is a strength, but Green Bay probably only needs to run the ball 10-15 times with Starks and Jackson to keep the secondary just a little bit honest. Key matchups will be Dunta Robinson against Greg Jennings, John Abraham against Chad Clifton, and Donald Driver/James Jones against Brent Grimes/William Moore. I tend to think Green Bay has the advantage in all those matchups, but it's close.
When Atlanta has the ball, it'll obviously be Charles Woodson trying to contain Roddy White, with plenty of help from the safeties. Sam Baker has the unenviable task of blocking Clay Matthews, and Tony Gonzalez will probably match up with A.J. Hawk and/or Desmond Bishop. Green Bay has the defense to limit Atlanta's high-flying offense, just like they did last week in Philly. Matthews is the key; he's basically unblockable. He dominated Jason Peters, and should do the same thing to Baker.
That's why the key to this game is the interior running game for Atlanta. How will Turner do on 1st and 10 runs up the middle? His YPC will dictate everything.
My gut feeling is that a rested Michael Turner has a huge game, something like 32 carries for 160 yards, and he limits Green Bay's offense by keeping them off the field. Rodgers keeps the game very close, but Atlanta's homefield makes the difference.
Final score: Falcons 28, Packers 24.
So I'll take the Falcons (-2), thanks to the surprisingly low spread.
Seahawks (8-9) @ Bears (11-5)
Predicted Line: CHI by 9.5
Actual Line: CHI by 10
What a joke.
Final score: Bears 23, Seahawks 16.
I'm taking the Seahawks to cover again.
Jets (12-5) @ Patriots (14-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5
Actual Line: NE by 8.5
Once again, Rex Ryan is making this game all about him. Last week he said it was "personal" against Peyton Manning. This week, he used the same word in reference to his matchup with Bellichick. The funny thing is, he's absolutely correct in both games. But why does he need to broadcast it? Why steal the headlines from your deserving players? They are the ones who beat the Colts. I'm so sick of Rex. How awful is it that my 3 least favorite teams (Pittsburgh, Chicago, NY Jets) are all in the final 8. At least two of them will likely be in the final 4. Ugggghh.
I've decided not to talk about Rex anymore, and instead focus on the real reason why the Jets went 11-5 and beat the Colts in Indy. Their freaking players.
For starters, they have the league's best center in Nick Mangold. He might be a top 20 overall player. He is dominant. They also have bonafide studs at LT and RG. That's why they can run the ball effectively no matter who the backs are. Just ask Thomas Jones about that.
They also have arguably the league's best receiving crew. I racked my brain to think of which teams were better in the WR/TE department, and I came up with maybe Indy, Dallas or Green Bay. But all of those teams were hit with injuries. The Jets haven't sustained a single meaningful injury to their offense all season. That's why a very mediocre Mark Sanchez has led his team to 3 playoff wins in two seasons. (By contrast Matt Stafford has led his team to 3 TOTAL wins in two seasons.)
Defensively, the Jets have a top 10 overall player at cornerback in Darelle Revis. He's their lynchpin. I don't think he's quite as good as Asomugha, but he's the #2 corner in the league, and he wins his individual matchup against the receiver 49 times out of 50. Across from Revis is Cromartie, who is a top 10 cornerback in his own right. Then you add 3 stud linebackers and a solid safety, and you have an all-around very good defense.
That's why the Jets went 11-5. Mangold and Revis, Holmes and Scott, Keller and Harris. Not Rex Ryan. It's about the players, and they have darn good players.
I'm not saying Rex isn't a great coach. He is. He motivates and inspires, maybe even to a fault. And he knows defense. He really knows defense.
I'm just saying he's making this all about him, and it's just so dang annoying. He dominates headlines so much that I just wrote 435 words without even mentioning the 14-2 Patriots, who quietly had one of the most efficient offensive seasons in NFL history, and who beat the Jets 45-3 a couple months ago.
New England finished the season on a eight game winning streak (talk about momentum) in which they won by an average of 22 points and scored at least 31 in each contest. Tom Brady hasn't thrown an interception since October 17. He's thrown 26 touchdowns since his last INT, and 326 attempts. I'm not even going to bother looking it up; I'm just going to assume those are both NFL records.
You always see quarterbacks throwing interceptions that "aren't their fault." Dropped balls, the receiver fell down, etc. Especially if you're a Lions fan, you can easily justify a 3 INT game. So how is it that Brady throws 326 passes without a single pick? Is he just really lucky? Somehow, I don't think that's it.
Could it be that his knowledge of the game and the opposing defense is so encyclopedic that he doesn't throw a pass unless he knows the outcome of his pass before he even throws it? He knows his receiver will fall down before he actually falls down? I don't know. I'm just speculating. It's a magnificent accomplishment, and a standard to which other quarterbacks should be held when they throw "not-their-fault" interceptions. And yes, this was a thinly veiled attack on Matthew Stafford.
I could analyze the heck out of this game, talk about matchups and all that jazz. But bottom line: it's Brady against Sanchez. In Foxboro, where Brady has won 28 straight games (another NFL record). I think this will be a Brady/Belichick classic beatdown, and we won't have to see Rex's face until next September, when he guarantees another Super Bowl for the Jets.
Final score: Patriots 37, Jets 6.
......
Now for a section called: Detroit Lions: 2011 Draft
First off, I'd like to apologize for misleading you for the past month into thinking the Lions will draft Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi in the first round. I've had a change of heart, and I no longer think that will be the pick. Allow me to explain.
For one thing, Jeff Backus wasn't as bad this season as we all think. When Stafford got hurt week 1 and it was clearly Backus's fault, we were all ready for a change. I wrote back then: "Stafford didn't even survive one half of 2010 football without a serious injury...Blame Jeff Backus."
But in a recent survey among NFC North experts, Jeff Backus was voted the best left tackle in the division, and surprisingly, I'd have to agree. The Lions actually had 8 winners of the 22 starting positions, whereas in the past two years they had 6 combined. This team really is improving.
I don't suddenly love Backus and want him to start at LT for another 5 years, don't get me wrong - I'm merely saying that offensive line isn't the team's biggest area of need. And thus, I no longer think Carimi is the right pick at #13. Here are a few reasons why:
1) Scouts aren't even sure if Carimi is the best LT in this draft class. Others think Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State is better, or Nate Solder from Colorado. Boston College's Anthony Castonzo has even got first-round mention.
2) Carimi is a reach at #13. In looking at five or six mock drafts, the earliest I've seen Carimi (or any LT) go is 17th. It appears highly likely that one of the top 4 LTs will be around for Detroit's second-round pick.
3) There's a ton of talent at the Lions' other positions of need - namely CB and OLB - which should be available at pick 13. If either of the elite CBs drop to 13 (highly unlikely) or if DE Robert Quinn somehow slips (also unlikely), it would be too good to pass up. What works in the Lions favor is having so many teams ahead of us who need QBs, and so many QBs with supposed first-round talent. Between Newton, Mallet, Gabbert, and Locker all possibly going before Detroit, and receiver AJ Green definitely going in the top 5, that leaves only 8 or 9 defensive players before Detroit. We can hope receiver Julio Jones goes in the top 12 also, and maybe Mark Ingram. Detroit might actually get the 6th defensive player in this draft, which would be awesome.
We know Nick Fairley is going top 5, and likely Da'Quan Bowers as well. Patrick Peterson is highly unlikely to escape the top 9 (with Dallas needing a CB), but they might prefer Prince Amukamara who has better coverage skills. The ideal situation for the Lions is if one of those players, preferably Amukamara, falls to #13. That would happen if the QBs go early, and teams take DE/OLBs instead of CBs.
According to the many mock drafts I've seen, the Lions have a legitimately decent chance of landing a bonafide top 5 talent with pick 13. But if Quinn, Fairley, Bowers, Peterson and Amukamara are all gone - which they probably will be - it becomes a much more difficult decision.
Then, we'll have to decide between a left tackle (probably Carimi, maybe one of the other guys) or an OLB or CB. The best corners would be either Jenkins from Florida or Harris from Miami. The best OLBs include Von Miller from Texas A&M, Ackeem Ayers from UCLA, or Justin Houston from Georgia.
It's well-documented how OLB-heavy this draft class is, so Detroit's smartest strategy might be to wait on that position until the second or third round, and take Carimi at 13. One thing's for sure - Detroit NEEDS two starting outside linebackers next season. Julian Peterson is gone, and Zach Follet is a reserve at best, plus he's hurt. We can make do with Backus, and Chris Houston can retain at least one CB job. But we don't have any OLBs.
It's impossible to predict who will be available at pick #13, but if I had to guess right now, I'd say the Lions take Von Miller from Texas A&M - winner of the Butkus Award for the nation's best linebacker. He often gets compared to Clay Matthews. It's been said that "66% of the world is covered by water, the rest is covered by Von Miller." Check out these highlights of Von for excitement-building purposes.
With pick #44, we'll take either a CB (Aaron Williams from Texas?) or an LT (Tyron Smith, USC?). We might even take another OLB if we like the available talent. A lot will depend on what happens in free agency over the next 3 months. Some folks speculate that Detroit will pick up Albert Haynesworth and his horrible contract, which would obviously change our entire defense.
Also, don't discount the possibility that the Lions might trade up in the first round to land a stud like Bowers or Quinn. They could swap with #5 Arizona (who might want to trade backwards and wait for a QB) or with #7 San Francisco (for the same reason), or even #10 Washington (same thing again). This would be wise, because the two teams directly ahead of Detroit (Houston and Minnesota) have similar needs. Both teams need CBs and OLBs. It would be great if we could jump ahead and take Amukamara.
Okay, that's enough Draft talk for now. Still got 3 months to wait.
My Mock Draft is coming soon-ish. Probably not until late February.
Go Lions.
And Ravens, Patriots and Seahawks....
Thursday, January 6, 2011
HUGE story -- breaking news
This might be bigger than the NFL playoffs this weekend. (See my picks below if you missed them). Stanford sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck released a statement today, saying:
"I am committed to earning my degree in architectural design from Stanford University and am on track to accomplish this at the completion of the spring quarter of 2012."
In other words ...
"I just gave up $40 million GUARANTEED dollars for a college degree."
Wow.
The guaranteed #1 overall pick (Carolina even confirmed last week) stays in college. Within minutes of this story breaking on ESPN.com, there were already hundreds of comments from readers.
Most people think he's an idiot for turning down that money and risking his health. You could be the best damn architect in the history of the world, but you're not making $15 million a year at 21 years old.
Other people admire his intelligence and commitment, or think he just doesn't want to play for Carolina. I agree with the first part, but not the second. Why wouldn't he want to be on the Panthers? They've got two good running backs and two stud offensive linemen and a few solid defensive players. They suck, sure, but they've got some pieces. They're no worse than St. Louis was last year.
This has nothing to do with Carolina, their lack of a head coach and their worthless receivers. This has to do with 2 factors, one of which scares the crap out of me.
1) Jim Harbaugh, Stanford's coach and Luck's mentor. He's being recruited to coach at U of M, and for the 49ers, Dolphins, and Broncos. With this unexpected news, I'd guess that Harbaugh and Luck are on the same page, and will both stay at Stanford in an effort to win a national championship. And right now I'd make them the preseason #1.
2) The Collective Bargaining Agreement. This is the one that scares me. Luck might have stayed in college knowing that an NFL lockout is a possibility, and he wanted to make sure he was playing football. I hope that's not the case. I hate even the thought of the lockout, and try not to think about it.
Either way, this is a ballsy decision. Last year Jake Locker turned down the draft and saw his stock slip from a top 5 pick to a fringe first rounder. He probably lost $20 or $30 million. Others, like Sam Bradford, have stayed in school and the gamble paid off.
An injury would be catastrophic, and would cost Luck more money than I can even think about. He'd make a great architect and his life would go on, but that's a lot of money to risk. But I think Luck is smart enough to know that his chances of suffering a serious injury are pretty slim.
This decision is ballsy not because of the injury-risk as much as the fact that Luck is the concensus #1 pick. No one else is even being considered. No matter how well he plays next year, even if he wins the Heismann and the BCS "championship," the best he can be is the #1 pick. Which tells me something about Luck - money is not his motivator.
How refreshing. How insane.
Is this really a Joakim Noah/ Tim Tebow situation where the guy just wants to win a championship? Is this a Jake Locker thing where he wants a shot at the Heismann? Or is this really about the degree?
People are all saying - hey, you can still get a degree while you play football! Or after your career is over! What do you need an architecture degree for if you're going to be a professional athlete! That's like Mozart saying "Real quick before I write my next symphony, I'm going to study ad become a blacksmith."
I don't know how I feel about this. I think it's stupid, but admirable. I think he's kind of an idiot, but kind of a role model. If I were in his shoes, I'd join the NFL Draft and not think twice. Forget Harbaugh, forget architecture, I'd buy myself a couple houses in Charlotte and a private jet. A no-brainer.
But maybe Andrew Luck is a better guy than me. Maybe this decision is so stinking noble that I can't even fathom what he's thinking. Or maybe, he really just doesn't want to be on the Panthers. Who the heck knows.
I'll tell you who LOVES hearing this news more than anybody else: Jimmy Claussen. Dude just kept his starting job. Although he's going to be battling the unwanted blues, knowing he was almost replaced.
Who else is thriving on Luck's decision: first round quarterbacks Cam Newton, Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, and of course Locker. Oh, and whoever Carolina takes #1 overall - probably receiver A.J. Green from Georgia or maybe CB Patrick Peterson or DT Nick Fairley.
This is going to mess up everyone's draft board. Before this news I would have projected four quarterbacks being drafted in the top 10. Now I don't know. Maybe three, maybe five? Will Carolina still take one? Buffalo picks #3, Arizona is #5, San Fran is #7, Tennessee is #8, and Washington is #10. All of those teams need quarterbacks. So do #2 (Denver) and #4 (Cincinnati) but those teams are stupidly sticking with their crappy guys. Picks #12 (Minnesota) and #15 (Miami) might look to trade up for quarterbacks. It all depends on each team's individual draft board. Some will want Newton, others will want Mallet, etc. No one will know until draft day. Not even Mel Kiper Jr.
For those who don't truly appreciate what a stud Luck is or have never seen him play, check out these links:
"I am committed to earning my degree in architectural design from Stanford University and am on track to accomplish this at the completion of the spring quarter of 2012."
In other words ...
"I just gave up $40 million GUARANTEED dollars for a college degree."
Wow.
The guaranteed #1 overall pick (Carolina even confirmed last week) stays in college. Within minutes of this story breaking on ESPN.com, there were already hundreds of comments from readers.
Most people think he's an idiot for turning down that money and risking his health. You could be the best damn architect in the history of the world, but you're not making $15 million a year at 21 years old.
Other people admire his intelligence and commitment, or think he just doesn't want to play for Carolina. I agree with the first part, but not the second. Why wouldn't he want to be on the Panthers? They've got two good running backs and two stud offensive linemen and a few solid defensive players. They suck, sure, but they've got some pieces. They're no worse than St. Louis was last year.
This has nothing to do with Carolina, their lack of a head coach and their worthless receivers. This has to do with 2 factors, one of which scares the crap out of me.
1) Jim Harbaugh, Stanford's coach and Luck's mentor. He's being recruited to coach at U of M, and for the 49ers, Dolphins, and Broncos. With this unexpected news, I'd guess that Harbaugh and Luck are on the same page, and will both stay at Stanford in an effort to win a national championship. And right now I'd make them the preseason #1.
2) The Collective Bargaining Agreement. This is the one that scares me. Luck might have stayed in college knowing that an NFL lockout is a possibility, and he wanted to make sure he was playing football. I hope that's not the case. I hate even the thought of the lockout, and try not to think about it.
Either way, this is a ballsy decision. Last year Jake Locker turned down the draft and saw his stock slip from a top 5 pick to a fringe first rounder. He probably lost $20 or $30 million. Others, like Sam Bradford, have stayed in school and the gamble paid off.
An injury would be catastrophic, and would cost Luck more money than I can even think about. He'd make a great architect and his life would go on, but that's a lot of money to risk. But I think Luck is smart enough to know that his chances of suffering a serious injury are pretty slim.
This decision is ballsy not because of the injury-risk as much as the fact that Luck is the concensus #1 pick. No one else is even being considered. No matter how well he plays next year, even if he wins the Heismann and the BCS "championship," the best he can be is the #1 pick. Which tells me something about Luck - money is not his motivator.
How refreshing. How insane.
Is this really a Joakim Noah/ Tim Tebow situation where the guy just wants to win a championship? Is this a Jake Locker thing where he wants a shot at the Heismann? Or is this really about the degree?
People are all saying - hey, you can still get a degree while you play football! Or after your career is over! What do you need an architecture degree for if you're going to be a professional athlete! That's like Mozart saying "Real quick before I write my next symphony, I'm going to study ad become a blacksmith."
I don't know how I feel about this. I think it's stupid, but admirable. I think he's kind of an idiot, but kind of a role model. If I were in his shoes, I'd join the NFL Draft and not think twice. Forget Harbaugh, forget architecture, I'd buy myself a couple houses in Charlotte and a private jet. A no-brainer.
But maybe Andrew Luck is a better guy than me. Maybe this decision is so stinking noble that I can't even fathom what he's thinking. Or maybe, he really just doesn't want to be on the Panthers. Who the heck knows.
I'll tell you who LOVES hearing this news more than anybody else: Jimmy Claussen. Dude just kept his starting job. Although he's going to be battling the unwanted blues, knowing he was almost replaced.
Who else is thriving on Luck's decision: first round quarterbacks Cam Newton, Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, and of course Locker. Oh, and whoever Carolina takes #1 overall - probably receiver A.J. Green from Georgia or maybe CB Patrick Peterson or DT Nick Fairley.
This is going to mess up everyone's draft board. Before this news I would have projected four quarterbacks being drafted in the top 10. Now I don't know. Maybe three, maybe five? Will Carolina still take one? Buffalo picks #3, Arizona is #5, San Fran is #7, Tennessee is #8, and Washington is #10. All of those teams need quarterbacks. So do #2 (Denver) and #4 (Cincinnati) but those teams are stupidly sticking with their crappy guys. Picks #12 (Minnesota) and #15 (Miami) might look to trade up for quarterbacks. It all depends on each team's individual draft board. Some will want Newton, others will want Mallet, etc. No one will know until draft day. Not even Mel Kiper Jr.
For those who don't truly appreciate what a stud Luck is or have never seen him play, check out these links:
- Interview in which you can tell what a truly humble guy he is.
- 58 yard run in which he shows why they call him 'Peyton Manning with wheels.'
- 50 yard bullet pass.
- 45 yard pass from his knees - eat your heart out JaMarcus.
- Freaking cannon.
- And last but not least, the play of the year.
Playoff Picks
To recap, I went 138-114-4 (54.7%) this regular season. These playoffs are going to be weird for a variety of reasons:
1) Seeding. Because of the wacky rules the road team is the better team in 3 of the 4 Wildcard matchups. That's going to mean Home Dogs in 3 games, and it's always difficult to choose between the home team and the better team.
2) Overtime. Remember, effective in the 2011 playoffs are the new overtime rules. Simple version: the team that receives the kickoff can't win with a field goal. If they score 7, they win. If they score 3, the other team gets a chance to score 7 and win, or score 3 and force sudden death. Here's to hoping OT happens, so we can see baffled coaches try to figure it out.
3) Seattle. The worst playoff team in NFL history is hosting a game. So weird. How large can they make this spread? Can Seattle possibly, conceivably, dare-I-say win this game?
Let's get to the Wildcard picks:
Saints (11-5) @ Seahawks (7-9)
Predicted Line: NO by 8.5
Actual Line: NO by 10.5
I'm willing to say this is the only time in NFL history that a home team has been double-digit underdogs. But it's also the only time a 7-9 team has made the playoffs, or the first time a team with an impossibly bad point differential of NEGATIVE 97 has gotten in. The rules are stupid. It's undeniable. As John McCain might say, "The system is broken."
But I'm not willing to say Seattle should have missed the playoffs, or that 10-6 Tampa should be in instead. If you win your division, you belong in the playoffs. If they change that, you'd have 10-6 Seattle tied with 10-6 Tampa and Tampa getting in on a tiebreaker and that would be just as bad. You can't fix the fact that a 7-9 team snuck in, you just have to wait for the NFC West to improve. Sam Bradford will help; St. Louis should win at least 9 next year. But what the NFL can do, and should do, and in fact MUST do, is change the way homefield advantage happens. Give it to the team with a better record, plain and simple.
The Saints playing AT Seattle is a travesty. Homefield is a really, really, really big deal. Seattle does NOT deserve homefield advantage against a team that won 4 more games than they did against a much tougher schedule. Enough said.
For this game, I'm actually going against 82% of America and taking the Seahawks. Not to win outright, but to cover the 10.5 points. I doubt they'll get blown out in a home playoff game. I could be wrong. But something tells me they'll make it interesting, or at least watchable.
A few reasons why:
1) New Orleans is struggling to run the ball, and Seattle is pretty good against the run lately since Colin Cole returned from injury. Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are now on IR, which means Julius Jones and Reggie Bush should get 10+ carries each. Neither will do anything. Obviously Brees can move the chains by himself, but a running game would help New Orleans if this is a blowout.
2) Marques Colston is questionable with a knee injury. He says he'll play, but I don't think he'll be near 100%. Brees will certainly spread the ball to Meachem and Moore without missing a beat, but it doesn't help to be without your best receiver.
3) Seattle has a pretty strong home-field advantage. At least they used to, back when Seattle was good. They used to be like Atlanta - the team that could always win at home, but was shaky on the road. Since 2006, Seattle is 4-0 in playoff home games (with wins by 21, 1, 10, and 20) and 0-3 in road playoff games. I think the fans will be excited to have a meaningful game for the first time in 3 years.
4) The Saints don't usually blow out crappy teams. Sean Peyton is 3-9 lifetime against-the-spread as a double-digit favorite. Part of that is because they struggle to run the ball.
For those reasons, and just because I like to be different, I'm taking Seattle +10.5.
Final score: Saints 28, Seahawks 20.
Jets (11-5) @ Colts (10-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: IND by 2.5
What a screwy line. My thought is Vegas is going to avoid even-number spreads in the playoffs so there are no ties. But I'm surprised they didn't lean upwards to IND by 3.5.
I'm conflicted, because I can't stand the Jets and definitely want them to lose, but I don't really like Peyton Manning all that much either. I like watching him lose in the playoffs. It's just fun.
But I refuse to cheer for Rex Ryan, who is trying to steal headlines yet again by calling this game "personal." What, because the Colts knocked you out of the playoffs last year? Welcome to life buddy. Shut your mouth and get ready to coach. Stop trying to monopolize headlines and get your overrated defense ready to face an elite quarterback.
There's a reason Rex has never beat Peyton as a coach or a coordinator, unless you count those week 17 rest-the-starter games. It's simply: Ryan is a blitzing fiend, and Peyton is probably the best quarterback ever against the blitz.
So something's gotta give. Either Ryan sends 4 and hopes to create pressure, or the Jets blitz like mad and the Colts beat them. If Ryan can put his ego and his tendencies aside, the Jets will get this win.
Why? Because it's actually pretty easy to put pressure on the Colts with only 4 pass-rushers. The offensive line is hurt and playing very poorly. Without Collie and Clark, Manning has struggled against zone defenses all season. He can't find his middle-of-the-field receiver, and forces bad throws to Wayne and Garcon, who both have problems with drops. It's been a sloppy offense all season, and they've lacked any semblance of a consistent running game. Addai is finally healthy, but that means next to nothing.
For the Jets, it should also be an offensively-challenged performance. Indy, who is thought to be terrible against the run, has held their past three opponents (Jones-Drew, McFadden, Chris Johnson) to an average of about 56 yards and 3.8 YPC. Whatever they're doing, it's working right now. And the Jets have surprisingly sucked at running the ball, especially lately. Tomlinson is so washed up and for some reason no one will admit it.
It's going to be a lot of pressure on Sanchez to convert third downs, and fortunately for him the Colts' defense is generous in that respect. They allow a 39% third-down conversion rate, one of the worst marks in the AFC. But Sanchez isn't exactly a proven stud yet. I don't have much confidence in him at all.
So what's the pick? Will Ryan blitz Manning and pay the price? Or will he play it smart, and dare the Colts to run? I hate to say it, but I think he'll play it smart. As loud and obnoxious and annoying as he is, you can't deny his will to win, and he might put aside his years of blitzing experience and go with what he knows will work. Against the zone, Manning will struggle.
So I am taking the Jets, who haven't beat a playoff-caliber team since week 2, on the road, against the first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, even though I hate them.
That way, if I miss the pick, at least the Jets are out.
Final Score: Jets 25, Colts 24.
Ravens (12-4) @ Chiefs (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3.5
Actual Line: BAL by 3
So much for my no-even-numbered-spreads theory. Whatever.
This game clearly should be played in Baltimore. Forcing a 12-4 team to play on the road in the playoffs is just insane. Kansas City isn't as vile and undeserving as the Seahawks, but they're close. They only played one team all season who made the playoffs, and that was a 19-9 loss to Indy. (I didn't count Seattle). They went a combined 6-4 against the horrid AFC and NFC Wests, and also beat Buffalo and Cleveland. They have nothing to be proud of. They would be sitting at home if San Diego didn't stupidly start the season 2-5.
I hate picking against Home Dogs, especially ones that have won 7 of their last 8 home games. But like I just said, Kansas City hasn't played anybody. Baltimore is an all-around elite team with just tons and tons of talent. They are well-coached, well-quarerbacked, and they have Ray Lewis. Plus I picked them to win the Super Bowl. So I'm taking the Ravens.
One last reason why: KC is a running team all the way. They led the NFL in rushing yards and attempts. Jamaal Charles had over 1,400 yards. But Baltimore was a top five rushing defense. They were also a top five rushing defense in 2009. And 2008. And 2007. And 2006. In other words, every year since they drafted Haloti Ngata. As much as I love Suh with all my heart, I can't call him the best DT in the league. Not yet. Ngata (ironically pronounced NADA) is just a complete beast. If the Chiefs can't run, they definitely can't win.
Final Score: Ravens 31, Chiefs 7.
Packers (10-6) @ Eagles (10-6)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Like: PHI by 2.5
Geez, trying to guess these lines feels like trying to tackle a squirrel.
This game is going to be awesome. Both of these teams are Super Bowl contenders and have elite quarterbacks with elite weapons. Both teams have meh defenses, although the Packers' defense is much better. This game should just be all-around awesome.
The key to stopping Michael Vick, as the Giants and Vikings have showed us, is speed and athleticism. As Golic says, get an athletic equivalent to chase him around IN THE BACKFIELD. The Giants did that with Antrelle Rolle. The Vikings did it with Winfield. For the Packers, they have the perfect guy in Clay Matthews.
Philly's offensive line is not very good, and they lost a starting guard week 17. Vick should see plenty of pressure, and might be forced into mistakes. Charles Woodson can cover DeSean Jackson, although he might give up a big play due to the large speed advantage. Green Bay isn't tremendous against the run, but Philly doesn't really run the ball all that much. At least not with the running backs.
Typically, the only way to beat Philly is to outscore them. You know they'll put up 30 or more points. Well, for one thing I think Green Bay can outscore them. But for another, I think Green Bay just might have a defense that can shut Vick down.
Last time Green Bay was in the playoffs, you might remember they scored 45 points ... and lost. Well this time they aren't playing the worthless Cardinals defense, but they are playing a 13th ranked defense which is hugely overrated. Philly can't stop the run (remember Jahvid Best), which doesn't really matter since Green Bay can't run. But Philly also stinks against the pass, especially in zone. Rodgers should have plenty of time to throw, and should have no trouble at all figuring out the coverages. Free safety Nate Allen will miss this game, as will LB Stewart Bradley.
I think this game will be a classic, and Rodgers will outduel Vick for his first postseason win.
Final score: Packers 38, Eagles 34.
And that's all I got. stay tuned for whatever else.
go lions.
1) Seeding. Because of the wacky rules the road team is the better team in 3 of the 4 Wildcard matchups. That's going to mean Home Dogs in 3 games, and it's always difficult to choose between the home team and the better team.
2) Overtime. Remember, effective in the 2011 playoffs are the new overtime rules. Simple version: the team that receives the kickoff can't win with a field goal. If they score 7, they win. If they score 3, the other team gets a chance to score 7 and win, or score 3 and force sudden death. Here's to hoping OT happens, so we can see baffled coaches try to figure it out.
3) Seattle. The worst playoff team in NFL history is hosting a game. So weird. How large can they make this spread? Can Seattle possibly, conceivably, dare-I-say win this game?
Let's get to the Wildcard picks:
Saints (11-5) @ Seahawks (7-9)
Predicted Line: NO by 8.5
Actual Line: NO by 10.5
I'm willing to say this is the only time in NFL history that a home team has been double-digit underdogs. But it's also the only time a 7-9 team has made the playoffs, or the first time a team with an impossibly bad point differential of NEGATIVE 97 has gotten in. The rules are stupid. It's undeniable. As John McCain might say, "The system is broken."
But I'm not willing to say Seattle should have missed the playoffs, or that 10-6 Tampa should be in instead. If you win your division, you belong in the playoffs. If they change that, you'd have 10-6 Seattle tied with 10-6 Tampa and Tampa getting in on a tiebreaker and that would be just as bad. You can't fix the fact that a 7-9 team snuck in, you just have to wait for the NFC West to improve. Sam Bradford will help; St. Louis should win at least 9 next year. But what the NFL can do, and should do, and in fact MUST do, is change the way homefield advantage happens. Give it to the team with a better record, plain and simple.
The Saints playing AT Seattle is a travesty. Homefield is a really, really, really big deal. Seattle does NOT deserve homefield advantage against a team that won 4 more games than they did against a much tougher schedule. Enough said.
For this game, I'm actually going against 82% of America and taking the Seahawks. Not to win outright, but to cover the 10.5 points. I doubt they'll get blown out in a home playoff game. I could be wrong. But something tells me they'll make it interesting, or at least watchable.
A few reasons why:
1) New Orleans is struggling to run the ball, and Seattle is pretty good against the run lately since Colin Cole returned from injury. Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are now on IR, which means Julius Jones and Reggie Bush should get 10+ carries each. Neither will do anything. Obviously Brees can move the chains by himself, but a running game would help New Orleans if this is a blowout.
2) Marques Colston is questionable with a knee injury. He says he'll play, but I don't think he'll be near 100%. Brees will certainly spread the ball to Meachem and Moore without missing a beat, but it doesn't help to be without your best receiver.
3) Seattle has a pretty strong home-field advantage. At least they used to, back when Seattle was good. They used to be like Atlanta - the team that could always win at home, but was shaky on the road. Since 2006, Seattle is 4-0 in playoff home games (with wins by 21, 1, 10, and 20) and 0-3 in road playoff games. I think the fans will be excited to have a meaningful game for the first time in 3 years.
4) The Saints don't usually blow out crappy teams. Sean Peyton is 3-9 lifetime against-the-spread as a double-digit favorite. Part of that is because they struggle to run the ball.
For those reasons, and just because I like to be different, I'm taking Seattle +10.5.
Final score: Saints 28, Seahawks 20.
Jets (11-5) @ Colts (10-6)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: IND by 2.5
What a screwy line. My thought is Vegas is going to avoid even-number spreads in the playoffs so there are no ties. But I'm surprised they didn't lean upwards to IND by 3.5.
I'm conflicted, because I can't stand the Jets and definitely want them to lose, but I don't really like Peyton Manning all that much either. I like watching him lose in the playoffs. It's just fun.
But I refuse to cheer for Rex Ryan, who is trying to steal headlines yet again by calling this game "personal." What, because the Colts knocked you out of the playoffs last year? Welcome to life buddy. Shut your mouth and get ready to coach. Stop trying to monopolize headlines and get your overrated defense ready to face an elite quarterback.
There's a reason Rex has never beat Peyton as a coach or a coordinator, unless you count those week 17 rest-the-starter games. It's simply: Ryan is a blitzing fiend, and Peyton is probably the best quarterback ever against the blitz.
So something's gotta give. Either Ryan sends 4 and hopes to create pressure, or the Jets blitz like mad and the Colts beat them. If Ryan can put his ego and his tendencies aside, the Jets will get this win.
Why? Because it's actually pretty easy to put pressure on the Colts with only 4 pass-rushers. The offensive line is hurt and playing very poorly. Without Collie and Clark, Manning has struggled against zone defenses all season. He can't find his middle-of-the-field receiver, and forces bad throws to Wayne and Garcon, who both have problems with drops. It's been a sloppy offense all season, and they've lacked any semblance of a consistent running game. Addai is finally healthy, but that means next to nothing.
For the Jets, it should also be an offensively-challenged performance. Indy, who is thought to be terrible against the run, has held their past three opponents (Jones-Drew, McFadden, Chris Johnson) to an average of about 56 yards and 3.8 YPC. Whatever they're doing, it's working right now. And the Jets have surprisingly sucked at running the ball, especially lately. Tomlinson is so washed up and for some reason no one will admit it.
It's going to be a lot of pressure on Sanchez to convert third downs, and fortunately for him the Colts' defense is generous in that respect. They allow a 39% third-down conversion rate, one of the worst marks in the AFC. But Sanchez isn't exactly a proven stud yet. I don't have much confidence in him at all.
So what's the pick? Will Ryan blitz Manning and pay the price? Or will he play it smart, and dare the Colts to run? I hate to say it, but I think he'll play it smart. As loud and obnoxious and annoying as he is, you can't deny his will to win, and he might put aside his years of blitzing experience and go with what he knows will work. Against the zone, Manning will struggle.
So I am taking the Jets, who haven't beat a playoff-caliber team since week 2, on the road, against the first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, even though I hate them.
That way, if I miss the pick, at least the Jets are out.
Final Score: Jets 25, Colts 24.
Ravens (12-4) @ Chiefs (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3.5
Actual Line: BAL by 3
So much for my no-even-numbered-spreads theory. Whatever.
This game clearly should be played in Baltimore. Forcing a 12-4 team to play on the road in the playoffs is just insane. Kansas City isn't as vile and undeserving as the Seahawks, but they're close. They only played one team all season who made the playoffs, and that was a 19-9 loss to Indy. (I didn't count Seattle). They went a combined 6-4 against the horrid AFC and NFC Wests, and also beat Buffalo and Cleveland. They have nothing to be proud of. They would be sitting at home if San Diego didn't stupidly start the season 2-5.
I hate picking against Home Dogs, especially ones that have won 7 of their last 8 home games. But like I just said, Kansas City hasn't played anybody. Baltimore is an all-around elite team with just tons and tons of talent. They are well-coached, well-quarerbacked, and they have Ray Lewis. Plus I picked them to win the Super Bowl. So I'm taking the Ravens.
One last reason why: KC is a running team all the way. They led the NFL in rushing yards and attempts. Jamaal Charles had over 1,400 yards. But Baltimore was a top five rushing defense. They were also a top five rushing defense in 2009. And 2008. And 2007. And 2006. In other words, every year since they drafted Haloti Ngata. As much as I love Suh with all my heart, I can't call him the best DT in the league. Not yet. Ngata (ironically pronounced NADA) is just a complete beast. If the Chiefs can't run, they definitely can't win.
Final Score: Ravens 31, Chiefs 7.
Packers (10-6) @ Eagles (10-6)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Like: PHI by 2.5
Geez, trying to guess these lines feels like trying to tackle a squirrel.
This game is going to be awesome. Both of these teams are Super Bowl contenders and have elite quarterbacks with elite weapons. Both teams have meh defenses, although the Packers' defense is much better. This game should just be all-around awesome.
The key to stopping Michael Vick, as the Giants and Vikings have showed us, is speed and athleticism. As Golic says, get an athletic equivalent to chase him around IN THE BACKFIELD. The Giants did that with Antrelle Rolle. The Vikings did it with Winfield. For the Packers, they have the perfect guy in Clay Matthews.
Philly's offensive line is not very good, and they lost a starting guard week 17. Vick should see plenty of pressure, and might be forced into mistakes. Charles Woodson can cover DeSean Jackson, although he might give up a big play due to the large speed advantage. Green Bay isn't tremendous against the run, but Philly doesn't really run the ball all that much. At least not with the running backs.
Typically, the only way to beat Philly is to outscore them. You know they'll put up 30 or more points. Well, for one thing I think Green Bay can outscore them. But for another, I think Green Bay just might have a defense that can shut Vick down.
Last time Green Bay was in the playoffs, you might remember they scored 45 points ... and lost. Well this time they aren't playing the worthless Cardinals defense, but they are playing a 13th ranked defense which is hugely overrated. Philly can't stop the run (remember Jahvid Best), which doesn't really matter since Green Bay can't run. But Philly also stinks against the pass, especially in zone. Rodgers should have plenty of time to throw, and should have no trouble at all figuring out the coverages. Free safety Nate Allen will miss this game, as will LB Stewart Bradley.
I think this game will be a classic, and Rodgers will outduel Vick for his first postseason win.
Final score: Packers 38, Eagles 34.
And that's all I got. stay tuned for whatever else.
go lions.
Monday, January 3, 2011
NFL Draft & My Hatred of Sean Baligan
The best part of the Lions winning their fourth game in a row on Sunday was that it saved us probably close to $25 million dollars.
A loss would have made the Lions 5-11, and had them drafting in the 6th position in April. Last year's #6 overall pick - Russell Okung - signed a 6 year contract worth up to $58 million, with $29 million guaranteed.
But by beating the Favre-less Vikings, Detroit finished 6-10, and because of the strength of schedule tiebreaker they'll draft 13th. A single win moved them up seven positions in the draft. Normally that would be a bad thing, but in the rookie-crazy NFL it's actually a good thing, especially because there wasn't a top 10 prospect that Detroit was dying to get.
Last year's #13 pick, DE Brandon Graham, signed a 5 year deal for $22 million, with just $14 million guaranteed.
6 years and $58 million ... or 5 years and $22 million?
I don't have to be an accountant to tell you that beating Minnesota was a big deal.
The best part of all - Detroit likely would have targeted the same player with the #6 or #13 pick. That would be Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi. He should be available at #13. And the decision should be easy, because elite CBs Patrick Peterson and Prince Nakamura will be gone within the first 10 picks. There will be plenty of available talent remaining on the board at #13, especially in a draft class which is particularly deep at the OLB/DE positions, but my hunch is Detroit takes Carimi and makes him an immediate replacement for Jeff Backus.
Now that the draft order is official, I'll be conjuring up a Mock Draft at some point. But we've got four months to go, and the Kipers and McShays of the world will be busy Mocking the draft into oblivion. In any event, beating the Vikings was huge. As in, $25 million dollars huge.
....
Went 9-7 this week in the picks, despite going 6-2 in the early games. It didn't help that the Bears and Titans surprisingly decided to try, or that Atlanta and San Francisco ran up the score in meaningless blowouts. If I had picked the games straight up this week, I'd have gone 13-3. Oh well...
Season Total: 138-114-4 (54.7%)
Which means of the 10 "experts" on Mlive.com/lions, I picked the NFL regular season better than 9 of them. Only Tom Kowalski beat me, with a 141-111-4 record. Since Tom is the premier Detroit Lions reporter in the entire world, I guess losing to him by 3 games out of 256 is acceptable. I'm pretty happy about beating the other 9 guys. Maybe the GR Press should give me my job back?
As for Sean Baligan, also known as the worst radio host in the history of the world, I outpicked him 138-114-4 to 128-124-4. At least he snuck above .500 in the final week. Good for him. No, really. Honestly. Seriously. Honestly.
Ugh... I know I haven't ranted about this much in the past, but how freaking terrible is the Sean & Terp show on 96.1? It is beyond terrible! It's wretched. It's so bad that I've been compelled on numerous occassions to email and/or call the producers of the show and complain. I've even emailed Sean personally to beg him to stop repeating every sentence fifteen times while inserting the word "honestly" three times per sentence.
In his response, he tried to be charmingly argumenative, but it failed miserably. Just like when he's on the air. He also made some comment about how 'it's not cool to say a guy should lose his job.' Yeah, you're right Sean, it's okay to completely and totally suck at your job. That's what America is all about. Let crappy guys keep their awesome jobs just because they have kids. Bullcrap. Being on the radio isn't your right, it's a privilege. There are a million guys who would love to have your job, and at least 95% of them would be better than you are.
By his logic, I should be allowed to sit at work and bang my head against the desk all day while wearing a toga and screaming obscenities, and not lose my job. Just because I have a family. If I did that, I would actually be better at my job than he is.
Here's the clincher: Sean & Terp is SO painfully bad that I've resolved to listen exclusively to the HUGE show on 107.3 during my afternoon drives home. Do you have any idea how bad the HUGE show is? It's utterly worthless. You can listen to it for 60 minutes straight and not understand a single word. You literally cannot distinguish between the actual show and the commercials, because HUGE does every commercial on that station. It's worse than words can express.
And yet I choose HUGE over Sean & Terp. It's like I'm dying of thirst, and I have to either drink deisel gasoline or my own pee. I choose the gasoline. Can't Grand Rapids find a sports-radio alternative that is at least the equivalent of drinking prune juice? That would be a huge (pun intended) improvement.
...
Stay tuned for NFL playoff picks, and the NBA Top 75 which is nearer to completion. And of course, GO LIONS. They just won 4 straight for the first time since Charlie Batch.
A loss would have made the Lions 5-11, and had them drafting in the 6th position in April. Last year's #6 overall pick - Russell Okung - signed a 6 year contract worth up to $58 million, with $29 million guaranteed.
But by beating the Favre-less Vikings, Detroit finished 6-10, and because of the strength of schedule tiebreaker they'll draft 13th. A single win moved them up seven positions in the draft. Normally that would be a bad thing, but in the rookie-crazy NFL it's actually a good thing, especially because there wasn't a top 10 prospect that Detroit was dying to get.
Last year's #13 pick, DE Brandon Graham, signed a 5 year deal for $22 million, with just $14 million guaranteed.
6 years and $58 million ... or 5 years and $22 million?
I don't have to be an accountant to tell you that beating Minnesota was a big deal.
The best part of all - Detroit likely would have targeted the same player with the #6 or #13 pick. That would be Wisconsin's LT Gabe Carimi. He should be available at #13. And the decision should be easy, because elite CBs Patrick Peterson and Prince Nakamura will be gone within the first 10 picks. There will be plenty of available talent remaining on the board at #13, especially in a draft class which is particularly deep at the OLB/DE positions, but my hunch is Detroit takes Carimi and makes him an immediate replacement for Jeff Backus.
Now that the draft order is official, I'll be conjuring up a Mock Draft at some point. But we've got four months to go, and the Kipers and McShays of the world will be busy Mocking the draft into oblivion. In any event, beating the Vikings was huge. As in, $25 million dollars huge.
....
Went 9-7 this week in the picks, despite going 6-2 in the early games. It didn't help that the Bears and Titans surprisingly decided to try, or that Atlanta and San Francisco ran up the score in meaningless blowouts. If I had picked the games straight up this week, I'd have gone 13-3. Oh well...
Season Total: 138-114-4 (54.7%)
Which means of the 10 "experts" on Mlive.com/lions, I picked the NFL regular season better than 9 of them. Only Tom Kowalski beat me, with a 141-111-4 record. Since Tom is the premier Detroit Lions reporter in the entire world, I guess losing to him by 3 games out of 256 is acceptable. I'm pretty happy about beating the other 9 guys. Maybe the GR Press should give me my job back?
As for Sean Baligan, also known as the worst radio host in the history of the world, I outpicked him 138-114-4 to 128-124-4. At least he snuck above .500 in the final week. Good for him. No, really. Honestly. Seriously. Honestly.
Ugh... I know I haven't ranted about this much in the past, but how freaking terrible is the Sean & Terp show on 96.1? It is beyond terrible! It's wretched. It's so bad that I've been compelled on numerous occassions to email and/or call the producers of the show and complain. I've even emailed Sean personally to beg him to stop repeating every sentence fifteen times while inserting the word "honestly" three times per sentence.
In his response, he tried to be charmingly argumenative, but it failed miserably. Just like when he's on the air. He also made some comment about how 'it's not cool to say a guy should lose his job.' Yeah, you're right Sean, it's okay to completely and totally suck at your job. That's what America is all about. Let crappy guys keep their awesome jobs just because they have kids. Bullcrap. Being on the radio isn't your right, it's a privilege. There are a million guys who would love to have your job, and at least 95% of them would be better than you are.
By his logic, I should be allowed to sit at work and bang my head against the desk all day while wearing a toga and screaming obscenities, and not lose my job. Just because I have a family. If I did that, I would actually be better at my job than he is.
Here's the clincher: Sean & Terp is SO painfully bad that I've resolved to listen exclusively to the HUGE show on 107.3 during my afternoon drives home. Do you have any idea how bad the HUGE show is? It's utterly worthless. You can listen to it for 60 minutes straight and not understand a single word. You literally cannot distinguish between the actual show and the commercials, because HUGE does every commercial on that station. It's worse than words can express.
And yet I choose HUGE over Sean & Terp. It's like I'm dying of thirst, and I have to either drink deisel gasoline or my own pee. I choose the gasoline. Can't Grand Rapids find a sports-radio alternative that is at least the equivalent of drinking prune juice? That would be a huge (pun intended) improvement.
...
Stay tuned for NFL playoff picks, and the NBA Top 75 which is nearer to completion. And of course, GO LIONS. They just won 4 straight for the first time since Charlie Batch.
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