Thoughts on the NFL Draft, the Lions, and Everything Else Ever

From my biased perspective, this is the least interesting NFL Draft in years. Partly because the top 4 picks are pretty much locked in, but mostly because the Lions made the playoffs last year for the first time since 1999 and aren’t drafting until pick #23. So while I’m not super interested, I’m definitely not complaining.

In the past decade, the Lions have earned ten consecutive picks in the first half of the 1st round: 13th, 2nd, 1st, 15th, 2nd, 9th, 10th, 6th, 2nd, and 3rd. That’s an average pick of 6.3 in a ten-year span.

This year, drafting 23rd, the Lions will be in the second-half of the 1st round for the first time since 2000, when we drafted …. 18th overall … drumroll please … Jeff Backus, from the University of Michigan!

Sidenote: Backus has played in every Lions game since, and has officially made more money than any offensive lineman who never made a Pro Bowl. Drafted immediately after Backus were a couple of studs, Casey Hampton and Nate Clemens, but whatever.

As long as we’re on this sidenote, it’s fascinating to look back at the past ten drafts and see how glaringly apparent it is that Matt Millen had no ability whatsoever to recognize talent. None.

First, take a look at the early round picks in the post-Millen era: Stafford, Suh, Delmas, Levy, Best, Spievey … two studs and all serviceable starters. Lewand, Mayhew and Schwartz even found late-round gems like Willie Young (7th) and Sammie Lee Hill (4th). Jury’s still out on Titus, LeShoure and Fairley, but at least one of them should pan out. (My hunch: LeShoure’s a stud, Fairley’s a bum, and Titus is too small to stay healthy. Unfortunately I think the 2011 draft will end up being a disaster for Detroit.)

Side-sidenote: it’s scary how good the Steelers draft. Polamalu, Roethlisberger, Holmes, Timmons, Woodley, Mendenhall and Pouncey were early picks, and every single one of them is a stud. But more impressively, they somehow found William Gay, Jonathan Dwyer and Antonio Brown all in the 6th round!? And starting tackle Willie Colon in the 4th? Superstar Mike Wallace in the 3rd? Willie Parker, John Kuhn and Isaac Redman undrafted? What the heck …

Maybe the Steelers are on to something. Draft your LBs early, your receivers in the middle rounds, and find your running backs after the 7th round is over. Seems like a repeatable blueprint, no?

Anyway, back to the dark days of Millen. With picks in the top 40, Millen willfully choose the following players: Gosder Cherilus, Jordan Dizon, Drew Stanton (!), Ernie Sims, Daniel Bullocks, Mike Williams (the bad one), Shaun Cody, Roy Williams, Kevin Jones, Teddy Lehman, Charles Rogers, Boss Bailey, Joey Harrington, and Kalimba Edwards. Now, for the depressing part. We COULD have chosen the following stud players with those exact same picks (reverse respectively): Andre Gurode, Dwight Freeney, Andre Johnson, Lance Briggs, Jonathan Vilma, Bob Sanders, DeMarcus Ware (not to mention Aaron Rodgers!!), Lofa Tatupu, Haloti Ngata, Greg Jennings, Ray Rice, Jeff Otah, and perhaps worst of all, Lamar Woodley (48 sacks in 5 years) instead of Drew Stanton (now 3rd string behind Tim Tebow* EDIT* – now Andrew Luck’s backup).

Now, I can understand how they missed Woodley. After all, he was so hard to notice as a first-team All American at the University of Michigan!! But drafting Stanton made sense because… I mean, he was undersized, couldn’t throw very well, and injury-prone, but at least he was a local hero. It’s not like anybody else from within the state was available.

Oh speaking of Stanton being injury-prone, I’m trying to remember, who was the guy who injured Stanton in college with that bone-crushing, monstrous strip-sack? Ohhh yeah, it was none other than Lamar Woodley from the University of Michigan!! Man, it is so easy to forget about him … I also forgot about how Woodley is the only player in NFL history with multiple sacks in three straight postseason games. (And he did it in 4 straight games, one of which was the Super Bowl).

But in Stanton’s defense, he was MVP of the Senior Bowl in 2007, when the North beat the South 27-0! Who could ever forget that classic contest. Now I remember why we drafted Drew Stanton.

But as for the rest of these terrible top 40 picks, I have no explanation. I know you can’t get them all right, but how do you epically fail on 14 out of 15 picks? The only pick Matt Millen made that didn’t suck was Calvin Johnson, and my son would have been smart enough to make that pick three years before he was conceived.

Imagine, for a moment, that Detroit had never hired Matt Millen, and the person in his stead had picked only half of the top 40 picks with intelligence. Let’s say we still chose Harrington but were smart enough to dump him early. We could have built a team around Aaron Rodgers and Andre Johnson, Haloti Ngata and DeMarcus Ware, with Ray Rice in the backfield and Briggs, Woodley and Vilma as the linebackers. Wouldn’t that team win 5 straight Super Bowls?

(Well, no, that team would get screwed trying to pay all those guys … but still…)

All this to say … drafting matters. And even though Detroit is picking 23rd this year, instead of our average position of 6th, it still matters. Guys picked between 20 and 25 over the past five years include studs Dwayne Bowe, Jon Beason, Chris Johnson, Clay Matthews, and Brian Bulaga … whereas total duds such as Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Andre Smith, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Gaines Adams (RIP), Levi Brown, and of course Jamarcus Russell have gone in the top 6 over the same period of time.

And this isn’t a new phenomenon. It’s extremely historic.

1989 - Andre Rison (pick #22) made 5 Pro Bowls, Tony Mandarich (pick #2) made none.

1995 – Ty Law (pick #23) made 5 Pro Bowls, Ki-Jina Carter (pick #1) made none.

1998 – a couple of Hall of Famers went in the 20s – Randy Moss (#21) and Alan Faneca (#26), while Andre Wadsworth was taken 3rd.

Heck, Dan Marino went 27th overall, after quarterbacks named Blackledge and O’Brien.

Historic data shows us that scouts don’t have a clue what they’re doing. Not even Mel Kiper really knows. Back in 2007, Kiper compared JaMarcus Russell to John Elway and said it was smart to pick him instead of Calvin Johnson. How does this stuff happen?

Yet somehow, there are teams that never miss a pick (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New Orleans in recent years), and there are teams that ALWAYS miss their pick (Cleveland, KC, the entire NFC West). Detroit has quickly morphed from the latter to the former, and they need to keep that streak alive, despite picking 23rd. I believe that 2011 will prove to be a bad draft for the Lions, and if 2012 is also less than prosperous, it’s going to set back the franchise several years, and potentially cripple the potential of our Stafford-Calvin-Suh nucleus. I know this sounds like an overstatement, but we absolutely, unequivocally cannot afford to waste the 23rd pick on somebody who gets cut in 2 years.

Conversely, teams picking in the top 5 better make sure they do their research and don’t end up with the next Charles Rogers. But chances are, somebody will.

Teams are learning though. Franchises are probably doubling and tripling their budgets when it comes to scouting. Back in 2002, 8 of the top 10 picks ended up being nobody. Last year, all the teams in the top 5 nailed their picks. 4 of the top 5 made the Pro Bowl as rookies, and Von Miller is already one of the best players in the league at his position. A year ago today, Miller was considered a prospect to be drafted in the 20-25 range, but somehow all the scouts figured things out before the draft and he went #2. Ten years ago, he probably would have slipped under the radar, been passed on by stupid teams like Detroit, and gone to, I don’t know, Pittsburgh at pick 31.

(Sidenote again – not to congratulate myself, but three months before the 2011 draft I was rooting for the Lions to take Von Miller, before he skyrocketed up draft boards from 25 to 2. I somehow knew more than the scouts, because as I’ve said all along, the only thing you need to evaluate talent is Youtube.)

So all that to say, here is my comprehensive report of the top prospects in the 2012 Draft, my thoughts on who the Lions should pick, who they will pick, and everything else.

First, let’s quickly run through the top 4 picks.

Indy will take Luck. No-brainer, and 99% bust-proof.

Washington will trade up and take Griffin. Risky , and a 50-50 bust. Also very costly in terms of future #1 picks. But with great risk comes the possibility of huge reward.

Minnesota will take Matt Kalil. This is 99% likely to happen, unless Miami really wants to trade up and leapfrog Cleveland for QB Ryan Tannehill. However, that won’t happen, because Tannehill isn’t half the prospect Griffin is, plus Minnesota wants Kalil bad enough that they would ask for two 1st round picks and Miami won’t be willing to give that up.

So Minnesota takes Kalil (great pick, no-brainer, 95% bust-proof), and then Cleveland takes Ryan Tannehill, who is the Blaine Gabbert of 2012. Not a great college career, but he has NFL size and appears intelligent. This is a terrible pick, but Cleveland, just like Jacksonville last year, is in dire need of a change at QB.

Tannehill is 40% bust, 40% adequate backup, and 10% adequate starter. He only has a 10% chance of being a franchise quarterback, and that’s being generous. Cleveland would be very smart to spend this pick on the best player available (BPA as it’s called), which is Trent Richardson or Morris Claiborne.

Texas A&M was one of the most pass-heavy offenses last year, and as a result Tannehill attempted the 6th most passes in the NCAA. (Way more than Luck, Barkley, or Griffin). However he finished just 16th in TDs, and threw more INTs than pretty much anybody, with a below average completion percentage. He scrambles a lot but isn’t particularly fast, fumbles a lot with notoriously small hands, and struggles with accuracy. Yikes.

His strengths are, well, the same as every QB who is stupidly picked in the first round: he’s tall, has a strong arm, and can throw for lots of yards in garbage time (think John Navarre). A&M was 7-6 last year against a mediocre schedule, and went 1-5 against teams that finished in the top 25. His best games were played against Kansas (who went 2-10) and Southern Methodist University (ranked #3 among U.S. Colleges for ‘Most Conservative Students’).

So you may be thinking, how the heck is this guy considered the #4 pick overall??? Well, I’m not really sure either. The only guess I have is that scouts are putting a lot of faith in Tannehill’s performance against Baylor, when he outdueled Griffin with 6 TDs and 415 yards. But that was just one game. The rest of Tannehill’s career is nothing special.

So that’s your top 4. Two studs, and two iffy quarterbacks. Sounds about right.

The intrigue heats up at pick 5, where Tampa has lots of needs and lots of BPA options. Richardson makes plenty of sense, especially with Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks now on the offense. That would make Josh Freeman’s life pretty easy. Addressing the defense also makes sense. Corners Ronde Barber (retirement) and Aqib Talib (prison) will both likely be gone next season, so LSU stud Morris Claiborne could be the pick. Unlike everyone else in the top 5, Tampa is keeping their choice a secret.

According to bucsnation.com, most of the fans want Claiborne. They are pretty happy with LeGarrette Blount and not astute enough to realize how good Richardson will make them.

The sixth pick belongs to St. Louis (from Washington), and they’ve got to be looking at WR Justin Blackmon now that Brandon Lloyd is gone. But I wouldn’t call it a no-brainer. Jeff Fisher is now running things, and he’s never gone with the obvious. First off, Fisher loves to build around defense, and the Rams have huge needs on that end. If Claiborne’s available, he might be the pick, otherwise CB Dre Kirkpatrick, LB Luke Kuechly, or DE Melvin Ingram are all options. Then there’s a couple of tackles in Jonathan Martin and Riley Reiff, and maybe even a receiver other than Blackmon, which could be Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd.

I don’t have a prediction for this pick other than that it will surprise me. Let’s go out on a limb and say DT Dontari Poe from Memphis. He is flying up draft boards, fills a huge need, and gives Fisher the Haynesworth-esque player he likes to build around.

Jacksonville is sitting at #7. They missed their chance to trade for Tebow, and are stuck with Blaine Gabbert, who just had one of the worst rookie seasons ever, even worse than Stafford’s. They got Chad Henne as a backup. In other words, this is a throwaway season for the team destined to move to Los Angeles.

In the past few years, Jags’ GM Gene Smith has gone for the shock-and-awe approach, taking 3rd round prospects like Tyson Alualu with top 10 picks. That hasn’t worked out too well, believe it or not. Maurice Jones-Drew is the only good player on Jacksonville’s offense, but the defense is actually respectable, with underrated LBs Paul Posluszny and Daryl Smith and a decent pass rusher in Jeremy Mincey.

Blackmon makes sense for Jacksonville, because Gabbert needs a top-tier receiver to have any chance to succeed. But they just immensely overpaid Laurent Robinson to be that receiver. Will they take the Millen approach of ‘Live and Die By Iffy Receivers’?

They also need to protect Gabbert, but just spent a #8 pick on a left tackle in 2009 and won’t give up on Eugene Monroe yet. If it has taken the Lions 11 years to give up on Backus, it should take Jacksonville at least 3 years to give up on their guy.

They could address the secondary, especially if Claiborne falls to them. But this pick probably has to be on offense, simply to give Gabbert a chance. And because of the new owner and the desire to make a splashy, unpredictable move, I think Jacksonville does something totally off the charts and picks either Michael Floyd, Richardson if he’s available, or a guard, which would be David DeCastro from Stanford. Guards rarely go this early, but he’s one of the best guard prospects in many years, and could bolster the running game like crazy.

So, to recap my mock of the first 7 picks,

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - Colts
2. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor – Redskins
3. Matt Kalil, LT, USC – Vikings
4. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M – Browns
5. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU – Bucs
6. Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis – Rams
7. David DeCastro, OG, Stanford – Jaguars

If you’ve looked at many mock drafts, you’ve probably seen Poe and DeCastro going in the 10-20 range, so you might think I’m nuts. But in recent NFL Draft history, nothing goes as expected. Last year, we thought we had an easy top 10, but Prince Amukamara fell to the 19th pick, Fairley fell to 14, and Jake Locker jumped from the 30s to 8. Everyone thought Ryan Kerrigan would go five picks before J.J. Watt, but the opposite happened.

The reason is, NFL teams keep their draft boards totally secret, with the only exception being Buffalo, who always telegraphs their pick. Coaches will outwardly rave about certain players, even invite them for private workout sessions, just to send smoke signals and try to trick other teams into believing they want prospect X when they’re really hoping to snag prospect Q.

Last year, all Jim Schwartz did was talk about Amukamara and all the great left tackles. He waxed and waned about Carimi and Castonzo and Solder. But when all those players were available, he took a stinkin DT. Maybe not a smart move in hindsight, but a calculated move he knew he wanted to take. Every coach does that, except the really stupid ones. Hopefully, those guys have somebody in the organization who is willing to speak up and say “No, that guy’s a bum.” But perennially terrible teams do not have such a person, and that’s why the Charlotte Bobcats always suck; everyone is afraid to second-guess Michael Jordan so they let him make amazing decisions like drafting Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison. I digress.

Usually, the secretiveness and trickery is because of 2nd and 3rd round prospects. If Detroit really likes a CB who they think they can get in the 3rd round (like Spievey in 2010), they will go on and on and on publicly about CBs Devin McCourty and Kyle Wilson, but then take Jahvid instead, while waiting for Spievey to fall into their laps later. Again, that move hasn’t panned out quite yet, but it was at least calculated.

That’s why the teams that draft well in the 2nd-4th rounds are always the best; they know who they want, they don’t make rash decisions, they stick to their plan and, if they’ve done their research well, it works.

The contrary strategy is called Millenism. That’s where you take a tall receiver with off-field problems in the top 10, then after that you just pick random defensive guys with cool names. For example,

“His name is Boss? How can he not be awesome?”

“I had a Teddy bear once. Let’s take Lehman!”

So… back to the board. At #8 is Miami, a huge wildcard. They have swung and missed at just about everybody this offseason (Manning, Flynn, Jeff Fisher), while trading Brandon Marshall for squat. They won’t get Tebow or Tannehill. Right now it’s Matt Moore or David Garrard, with the best receiver being Davonne Bess.

So what does Miami do? Scrap the season and shoot for the #1 pick next year? Unfortunately, you can’t do that and expect to make any money or keep any fans, especially with a new head coach. They need to at least pretend to try. But if you can’t score any points, you can’t win.

It’s a shame, because Miami has the makings of a great defense. Vontae Davis, Cameron Wake, and Karlos Dansby are three studs, plus they just re-signed stud DT Paul Soliai and added a solid #2 corner in Richard Marshall from Arizona. In reality, Miami might have the best all-around defense in the NFL. Though they ranked just 15th in yards and 6th in points, they were hampered by their mediocre offense and bad turnover margin putting them in bad positions all year long.

Miami also has two exceptional offensive linemen in Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. In truth, if Peyton Manning was up for the challenge that is the AFC East, he should have gone to Miami – a much better team than Denver.

So the question is, does Miami keep bolstering the defense so that whoever their 2013 quarterback is (Barkley perhaps) has a great team around him? Or do they give Matt Moore a real chance by drafting a skill position player? New head coach Joe Philbin (remember the Packers coordinator who’s son died during the playoffs?) is an offensive guru who desperately wants a new quarterback to build around. But assuming Tannehill goes to Cleveland, I can’t imagine Miami reaching to draft the next quarterback on their board, presumably Brandon Weeden from Oklahoma State. It’s possible Miami will trade back and try to get Weeden in the late 1st round. It all depends on who is left available. They don’t need to upgrade the offensive line or secondary very much. If Richardson or Blackmon falls, that’ll probably be the pick. Richardson would make a great complement to weenie Reggie Bush.

After Miami is Carolina, who has needs pretty much everywhere. They just signed Mike Tolbert for 4 years, which was curious with DeAngelo and Stewart already clogging up cap space. The assumption is they’ll trade to trade somebody, but nobody wants DeAngelo’s huge contract, and nobody wants Stewart’s injuries. But heck, with Cam Newton, a great O-line and three running backs, maybe they will run the Wishbone Formation and omit the passing plays from the playbook.

Defensively, Carolina needs lots of help. DT and CB are the biggest needs. If Claiborne and Poe are gone, they may opt for Kirkpatrick or a DT such as Devon Still or Fletcher Cox. There will be plenty of solid offensive lineman available, but Ron Rivera is a defensive guy and didn’t get the chance to rebuild his defense at all last year. Carolina had only one pick in the top 65, and used it on Cam Newton, which turned out to be very much the right choice.

Even though he doesn’t fill the biggest need, I think Carolina takes the defensive BPA on their board, Luke Kuechly.

Speaking of Kuechly, he’s kind of the chic prospect this year. A white dude who looks kind of like Rudy. He’s a chase-and-tackle middle linebacker who relies on technique more than speed. He had an amazing Combine and appeared intelligent with his interviews and Wonderlic. But I’m not sold on him at all. I just watched a 4 minute highlight video where all he did was drag runners out of bounds. It takes him longer to complete a tackle than anybody I’ve ever seen. We’ll see if my 4-minute scouting report ends up being accurate at the NFL level, but it almost always does. Bad pick Carolina.

*Speaking of prospects who don’t impress me on Youtube, my new nickname for RG3 is Robert ‘The Bubble Screen’ Griffin. Seriously, less than half of his passes travel more than 2 yards past the line of scrimmage. Not sure how well that will work in the NFL, but it sure is effective against Rice University.

The next team up at pick #10 is Buffalo, who just gave Mario Williams a record-breaking $100 million and 6 years. The only thing I don’t like about that deal is his injury-history, but I’m not overly concerned. Adding Mario to a defensive line that already had Pro Bowl DT Kyle Williams and stud-in-the-making Marcell Dareus gives Buffalo the best defensive line in the NFL, hands out. Then, a few days later they added DE Mark Anderson to play the other DE spot in Dave Wandstedt’s new 4-3 defense.

If you thought having two Steve Smiths and two Roy Williamses was confusing, we’re about to see a new and improved Williams Wall.

With Nick Barnett at MLB, studs Jarius Byrd and Terrence McGee in the secondary, and an elite defensive line, there’s no reason to think Buffalo can’t win 10 games just with their defense and running game. Keep in mind - their schedule features the two worst divisions in football (NFC West, AFC South), two games against Miami, and bonus games against Cleveland and KC. That’s 10 games in which Buffalo could be favored. Just saying, this is your darkhorse team. You heard it here first.

As I mentioned earlier, Buffalo always telegraphs their pick. They did a better job last year, but there wasn’t too much intrigue with the #3 pick. It was either Dareus or Miller. This year, they haven’t been too vocal yet, but give it time and Chan Gailey will reveal their plans. If I had to make a hunch, I’d say they want to give Ryan Fitzpatrick the best chance of succeeding this year, not next year. I think Buffalo is ready to start winning now, as they proved by drowning Mario Williams in cash. So I think the pick is a receiver, not a left tackle, which would make more sense if they were in rebuilding mode. So I’ll say Justin Blackmon falls to #10. He was considered the #2 pick not very long ago. Good deal for Buffalo, pairing him with Steve Johnson.

At picks #11, #12 and #13 are three wretched teams with dismal quarterback situations: the Chiefs, Seahawks and Cardinals.

KC went into 2011 with high hopes and lost Charles, Berry, Moeaki and practically every other decent player within the first two weeks, then freefell to 7-9 behind Tyler Palko and eventually Kyle Orton, who is now with the Cowboys. For 2012, they have to hope that Matt Cassel doesn’t continue to suck, that Jamaal Charles comes back from the ACL, and that the NFL restructures the divisions so they don’t have to deal with both Rivers and Peyton Manning.

Seattle also went 7-9, but won 5 out of 6 late in the season when Marshawn Lynch became possessed. Tavaris Jackson was predictably erratic while showing flashes of decency, and Charlie Whitehurst didn’t pan out whatsoever; he was actually traded back to San Diego in exchange for a bag of garbanzo beans. Going into 2012, Seattle needs help everywhere, on both sides of the ball. Matt Flynn can succeed on a talented team like LSU or Green Bay, but nobody’s ever seen him play with Golden Tate as his best receiver. Flynn’s 2012 should be very 2011 Kevin Kolb-ish, but without as much physical talent and without Larry Fitzgerald.

Speaking of the Cards, they somehow went 8-8 despite a 1-6 start and 8 games started by Fordham College alum, John Skelton. Despite having arguably the league’s worst offensive line and virtually no pass rush, they somehow pieced together a .500 season thanks to only three factors: a super easy schedule, a stud receiver, and a stud cornerback/kick returner. Their division is still cake, but they now get the two toughest divisions (NFC North, AFC East) plus bonus games against Philly and Atlanta. I could see them improving as a team and yet only winning 6 games this year. They were definitely the worst 8-8 team in history.

As for the draft picks, I’d say Chiefs take Ingram to pair him with Tamba Hali and attempt to establish a dominant pass rush, the Seahawks take Kirkpatrick and try to salvage an maladroit secondary, and Cardinals decide between Martin and Reiff, both of whom are falling down the Big Board after unimpressive showings at the Combine / Pro Days. We might even see the next OT (Mike Adams from Ohio State) move ahead of those guys before April.

Which brings us to the always-intriguing Cowboys, who have finally shored up the edges of the offensive line and definitely don’t need to add any more skill position players. I LOVE DeMarco Murray - the Breakout Player of 2012 - and think he’ll open up the game tremendously for Romo, Austin, Bryant and Witten. That offense, at least on paper, should be one of the league’s best.

But the defense needs plenty of help, especially in the secondary. Last year, Dallas had the opportunity to take Amukamara, but passed on him for OT Tyron Smith. This year, they’ll have a choice between Mark Barron and Jenkins, and I’m 80% sure they’ll take one of them. The other 20% could be David DeCastro if he’s still available, or a 3-4 DE, such as Fletcher Cox or Devin Still.

After Dallas is another disappointing NFC East team, the Eagles.

Remember last offseason, when Philly brought in Asomugha & the All Stars, which prompted Dallas’s D-coordinator to talk about “kicking their asses,” which led to Rex Grossman guaranteeing that the Redskins would actually be the ones to win the division, which led to the only NFC East team that didn’t talk trash in August winning the Super Bowl? Funny how that happens.

Philly’s pick has to be somebody who can play defense in the middle of the field. A DT, a linebacker, a safety. Their defensive struggles in the ‘wide nine’ were well documented. If Kuechly or Barron or Poe is available, they’ll all be good options.

*Quick word on Mark Barron – I absolutely love this guy. Hard-hitting, super instinctive, can actually defend the pass. Basically a bigger, smarter, stronger, faster version of Louis Delmas, only with much better coverage skills.

The Crimson Tide defense could see as many as five players drafted in the first round, and while Upshaw and Kirkpatrick get most of the attention, Barron might end up being the best pro. If he falls to 23, I would love to see Detroit employ their BPA strategy and take him; I’m sure plenty of fans would groan at the uselessness of another safety, but it would allow Delmas to play weakside safety and it would allow Spievey to move back to corner, plus it would be like adding another excellent linebacker on running plays. Barron is going to be a stud. Mark my words: Eric Berry and Mark Barron will be the Reed and Polamalu of the next generation.

If Dallas doesn’t take Barron, Philly probably will. If not, they’ll be happy with Fletcher Cox from Mississippi State. He actually reminds me a little bit of Suh, but less physically imposing and without the psychotic, amazing desire to destroy people.

Next is the Jets, who just infuriate me. It’s fine if you want to trade for Tebow, but don’t insult my intelligence by saying “it was a football move.” Clearly, it was a media move. It was a Rex Ryan Ego move. It was a teenage girl saying to her friends “Does this shirt look cute on me?” Come on.

Speaking of insults to my intelligence, how about the Grand Rapids Press putting up billboards for their website, saying “The Press isn’t going anywhere. It’s going everywhere.” Yeah, kind of like the phonograph and the horsedrawn carriage. Seriously, if it hadn’t taken them a decade to figure out that newspapers are obsolete, they might have a chance. In a related story, Kodak is bankrupt because it took them too long to adjust to the digital camera. True story.

Anyway, rest of the NFL draft thoughts later … the latest rumor is that Detroit is interested in Georgia cornerback Brandon Boykin...

Lions in Great Shape ... Tigers Hurting

A couple weeks ago, it appeared the Tigers were headed for 100+ wins and the Lions had some major concerns. Now, the pendulum has swung the other way.

It started with tendinitis in the throwing arm of promising pitcher Jacob Turner. This basically eliminated Turner from the opening-day roster and means either Duane Below or Andy Oliver will be the 5th starter in April. Blegh. I still hope Turner joins the rotation by mid-summer, but we'll see. For now, the 5th starter will continue to be a major weakness for Detroit. Not only because those guys aren't great pitchers, but because they wear down the bullpen.

Then, Miguel Cabrera took a groundball to the face and got 8 stitches. He's out for a couple weeks, and should be ready for the April 5 opener. If he's not, you can bet your farm that Brandon Inge will be the opening day starter at 3rd. I. Hate. Brandon. Inge.

Even if Cabrera is ready for April 5, he'll miss the rest of the preseason. Does this matter with such a great player? Probably not. But seeing the pictures of Cabrera's bloody face just didn't seem like a good omen for the Tigers season.

Then, the good news.

The Lions franchised Cliff Avril, keeping him on the team for at least one more year. They re-signed DT Andre Fluellen as well. The D line looks very solid: Suh, Fairley, Avril, KVB, and Fluellen/Jackson/Young coming off the bench. It looks like Corey Williams is the variable. Is there a spot for him along with Suh and Fairley? Isn't that too much money to invest at DT?

Then, the Lions pulled off a stunner by re-signing Stephen Tulloch for five years. I have no idea how this happened, with a half-dozen teams pursuing Tulloch and offering him plenty of money. The Lions just gave a record contract to Megatron, but they somehow are able to pay Tulloch as well. That probably means that we're not spending any money in free agency, except for inconsequential CB Jacob Lacey, who Detroit just added for secondary depth and a possible nickel CB. But who cares. Tulloch was the best free agent on the market who fit a need for Detroit. Fantastic job retaining him.

This also means that DE and MLB are positions that can safely be taken off the Lions draft board for the 1st round. DT and RB too, and of course WR and QB. That's assuming that the Lions management aren't completely incompetent, which I hope is a safe assumption.

That means were looking at OLB, CB, tackle, center, guard, and safety. Lots of options ... I'll have some update on that later .... Go Lions!

Where Will Tebow Land? ... And, Does It Matter?

If you haven't heard by now, Peyton Manning is headed to Denver. The only thing about this that surprised me was the contract - apparently 5 years, $90 something million. That's a lot of money and a lot of years for a guy coming off an entire missed season. I was thinking it would be 3 or 4 years and $50-60 million. Maybe Manning was driving up the price by working out with the Niners and Titans. Who knows.

A lot of dominoes will now fall into place; Alex Smith will re-sign with San Fran, Hasselbeck will stay in Tennessee until Jake Locker's ready to go; and of course Kevin Kolb will remain the man in Arizona. Those three teams were never in severe QB turmoil.

But with Matt Flynn signing in Seattle (for significantly less money than I thought he would), two teams are left without a chair. Cleveland and Miami. Of these, Miami has a better current QB with Matt Moore, but both teams want to make a serious move.

And now, there's a new quarterback on the market. He comes with a dysfunctional throwing motion, 200 million fans and the ability to cure diseases with his tears. Yes, that's right, the most popular athlete in American (literally), Tim Tebow, is now completely up for grabs.

But the question is ... who wants to bring the circus to town?

If you like handsomeness and six-game winning streaks, if you like constant references to "my Lord and Savior," and if you really, really, really like attention, then you want to be the team who trades for Tim Tebow.

But if you value completion percentage, third-down conversions, and a general ability to throw the football, you might want to stick with Matt Moore and/or Colt McCoy.

We know the following things to be true:

-Miami loves stars. Their owner, Stephen Ross, loves to mingle with celebrities, including partial-team owners JLo, Venus and Serena, and Gloria Estefan. Ross has unsuccessfully pursued big names like Jim Harbaugh and Peyton Manning in consecutive years.

- Tebow played college football in Florida. He is a god there.

- It's not going to take much. Denver will probably trade him for a 3rd round pick just to get the circus out of town. Maybe less.

- Cleveland could use some excitement. Who the heck likes Cleveland? Clearly not Joakim Noah.

However, he's not necessarily going to be acquired as a starter. A lot of teams (New England comes to mind) might want to bring him in solely as a trick-play guy with the hope of maybe developing him as a passer. If he is as teachable as everyone says, maybe he can figure out how to throw like a real NFL QB. If he does, with his size and intangibles, he could be freaking awesome.

I wouldn't be shocked if something happens soon. I'm sure John Elway wants to get this monkey off his back as soon as possible. My darkhorse guess is KC. Run-first team, good D, could use a quarterback to compete with Cassel. I could also see Oakland making a move for him, or maybe the Jets.

Let's see what happens. Go Lions.

Quarterback Carousel and Other News

With Peyton Manning touring the country and RG3 headed to Washington, I thought it might be time for some sprawling thoughts on the NFL. After all, this is the least engrossing NCAA tournament I've ever seen, baseball is still three weeks away, my two favorite NBA players have suffered season-ending injuries (Chauncey and Rubio), and the Heat have already won the next 3 NBA titles. Did I mention, I haven't even looked at a bracket yet this year?

I was going to delve into a "What happened to college basketball?" dissertation, but then I realized ... I don't even care. So let's talk about football.

The Draft is about six weeks away, but the top 3 picks are already set in stone. Indy will take Luck, Washington will take RG3, and the Vikings will pick left tackle Matt Kalil. I don't recall a draft ever being that clear a month ahead of time.

We've known Luck was going #1 forever, but it became officially official when the Colts released Peyton. Luck is going to be a star, but I don't know how good he'll be as a rookie. Can't wait to watch him.

In order to secure the #2 pick, Washington gave St. Louis their #6 pick this year and their first round picks in the 2013 and 2014 drafts, along with a future second-rounder. This trade will be great for one team and terrible for the other, and, if I may play the "obvious card," it will depend on how good RG3 is.

If Griffin totally sucks, combined with the Rams sucking again, St. Louis could be picking TWICE in the top 5 next year. Heck, they could theoretically have the #1 and #2 pick. With the new rookie wage scale, that wouldn't actually be a death sentence; it would be amazing.

But if Griffin is fantastic, and the Rams improve under Jeff Fisher, St. Louis could end up with two picks in the 20s. That would make this trade a disaster for St. Louis, because by giving up the #2 pick this year they lost out on Kalil, who will undoubtedly be one of the best offensive linemen in football as soon as next season.

Most realistically, Washington and St. Louis will both win between 5 and 7 games and the Rams will be picking 10th and 15th next year. Not bad. Plus, they could trade both of those picks up to #1 if they want to give up on Sam Bradford and take Matt Barkley.

The biggest winner in the RG3 trade was Minnesota, who gets Kalil at pick #3. The biggest losers are the Lions, Bears and Packers. Just sayin.

At pick #4, the Browns smartly bowed out of the RG3 auction and kept their picks. They are being criticized for not wanting to give up pick #22 in this year's draft in order to obtain a potential franchise QB, but the reality is they would've had to give up a 2013 first rounder as well, and that's probably a top 5 pick, maybe a #1 pick. In other words, I think Holmgren did the right thing; if the reward was Andrew Luck, I absolutely would have traded 3 first round picks to get him. But I'm not as sold on RG3 as everyone else.

Admittedly, I wasn't sold on Cam Newton either. But this is different. Newton dominated the SEC, which I've come to realize is a really big deal (do you realize Alabama's defense alone could yield 5 first round picks?). Griffin put up monster stats against Stephen F. Austin University, and I'm still not very impressed by that. Remember how Denard Robinson runs for 350 yards against Central Michigan every September? Isn't that basically what Griffin3 did last year?

We'll see. Maybe Griffin will be Cam Newton 2.0. He's smaller, albeit faster, than Newton, but with less of a cannon. Everyone says he can make all the throws at the NFL level, but I'll believe that when I see him play against NFL defenses.

With that said, let's review the crazy happenings of the last 48 hours.

• Brandon Marshall punches a woman in a club at 4am, then gets traded to the Bears the next day for 3rd round picks. But because the word "allegedly" is used, he won't get in any trouble. What a bunch of bull. As a Lions fan, I should be worried that the Bears addressed their biggest weakness, but I'm still not sold on Jay Cutler as a winning quarterback. It's not like those Cutler-Marshall Bronco teams were making the playoffs.
• That said, Marshall-to-the-Bears gives the Lions one more reason to fix their secondary. Unfortunately, we lost Eric Wright to Tampa, and Cortland Finnegan (who had the Jim Schwartz connection) signed with St. Louis. The other marquee CB was Brandon Carr, who signed with Dallas.
• Other worthwhile CBs, such as Carlos Rogers, Terrell Thomas, Rashean Mathis, re-signed with their current teams. So in other words, the Lions better address the CB issue in the draft.
• Two names that haven't popped up yet on the Free Agent Tracker are Stephen Tulloch and Cliff Avril. It will be very tough for Detroit to keep both guys, especially after shelling out $132 million ($60 guaranteed) to Calvin Johnson. Speaking of which ...
• Yeah that's a lot of money. But there's not a person on the face of the planet who can do what Calvin Johnson can do, and in terms of supply & demand, it makes sense for him to be paid accordingly. As a Lions fan, I'll gladly pitch in $50 towards this contract. The dude earned it, and kudos to the Ford family for keeping Megatron in Detroit.
• The concern whenever somebody signs a monstrous deal like this is that laziness will follow. You could ask Albert Haynesworth or all the a-holes on this list about that. But Calvin isn't that kind of guy. I have no worries about this deal.
• I think Avril will be gone soon. Pass-rushers get insane money these days (Charles Johnson got what, $72 million last year?). Whoever signs him for 5-years, $65 million is going to realize that he isn't the same player without a certain Suh next to him. I say good riddance. Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young can get the job done for 10% of the money.
• However, if we do lose Avril, make no mistake: Schwartz will spend our 1st round pick on a DE, and defend himself by saying KVB is getting old and we just lost Avril, and we'll all nod and say "Yeah, that makes sense," while realizing that means another season of Backus and Alphonso Smith. Kind of like what happened last year with Fairley. Remember, at all times, Schwartz is thinking to himself "Sacks, sacks, sacks, sacks ..."
• If we lose Avril, that likely means we retain Tulloch, who will probably take less money to stay in Detroit anyway. That means we've got the 3 starters at linebacker (Levy, Tulloch, Durant) figured out for 2012. Also, don't forget we've got LeShoure coming back at running back, which is like having another 1st round rookie.
• Other noteworthy free agent deals from around the NFL:
• Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks (1st team All Pro guard) to the Bucs - 5 years each.
• That's two splashy moves for the Tampa offense, who also has the #5 pick. They could add a stud CB (Claiborne) or RB (Richardson) with that pick, or a much-needed pass-rusher. Tampa is making some noticeable moves with the abundant cap space they have, and they deserve credit for stealing a key player from a division rival. However, I'm going to plagiarize walterfootball.com and say: " Players who come from great franchises and go to bad teams solely for the money seldom pan out." I have my doubts about Nicks, and to a lesser degree, V-Jack. Maybe the reason Nicks was so good on the Saints had something to do with Drew Brees? And maybe Jackson benefited from having Philip Rivers throw him the ball?
• Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan to the Redskins; Robert Meachem to the Chargers; Laurent Robinson to the Jags. All of those guys got WAAY too much money. Other receivers, such as Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, and DeSean Jackson, stayed with their teams, and were all paid properly. I'm really surprised Wayne isn't following Manning to Denver/Tennessee/Arizona/Miami.
• I'm not even going to mention Randy Moss and his 1-year deal with the 49ers. Let's wait and see if he even makes the team.
  
• Madden Cover Boy Peyton Hillis spent last season faking illnesses and pissing off the Cleveland front office, then signed with KC as a backup running back for a whopping 1 year, $3 million. The Curse lives.
• A whole bunch of backup quarterbacks moved around - Chad Henne to the Jags, Jason Campbell to the Bears, Kyle Orton to the Cowboys. Each one of these signings will end up being important in the inevitable events of injuries to Romo and Cutler and the benching of Blaine Gabbert.
• A ton of really good players re-signed with their current teams. Ahmad Brooks with the 49ers, Dqwell Jackson with the Browns, Sione Pouha with the Jets, Nick Hardwick with the Chargers, Red Bryant with the Seahawks, Paul Soliai with the Dolphins, Mathis with the Colts, Finley with the Packers, Cole with the Eagles, Foster with the Texans. The one I disagree with the most is Steve Johnson re-signing with the Bills for 5 years, $36 million. Never pay a #2 receiver like he's a #1 receiver.
• A couple of superstars are pissed about the dreaded "franchise tag." Namely, Drew Brees and Matt Forte. Both will play for their respective teams in 2012, but maybe not very happily.
• The two most important free agents are yet to be signed, and will hopefully make a decision within the day. Peyton Manning, of course, and Mario Williams. Both among the 10 best players in football, both coming off season-ending injuries. Manning, as you know, is deciding between the Broncos, Titans, Cardinals, and maybe Dolphins. Williams seems headed to either Buffalo for max money, for Houston for loyalty and the hometown discount. I don't have any solid predictions, just total guesses. I see Peyton going to Nashville and Mario to Buffalo. I'm just glad both guys are staying in the AFC.
• Just as I was typing this list, the Saints made a huge move to replace Carl Nicks, signing Ben Grubbs from Baltimore, who might actually be the best guard in football. They got him for less money, and Tampa is in a collective state of nausea right now.
• So if Peyton goes to Denver, what does that mean for Tim Tebow? Does he remain the backup? Does Denver bring in a real backup and make Tebow the trick-play-guy-and-two-point-conversion-specialist? Or does Denver trade him? Well, as John Clayton reported, the Tebow-heads-home-to-Jacksonville deals are off the table now that Henne is there. But like I said earlier, I think Manning is staying in the AFC South, and Elway will have to suffer through another season of Tebowmania.
• Presumably, if Manning doesn't sign with Arizona or Miami, Kevin Kolb and Matt Moore are likely to keep their jobs, especially the highly-paid Kolb. But what about Matt Flynn? The 6-TD game against Detroit (you know, the game that forced us to play New Orleans in the first round instead of the Giants, who we would have probably beat and caused the idiotic Eli-mania to never happen) has made Flynn into a crazily-coveted "franchise" quarterback, which is hilarious when you realize that he was 0-2 as a starter in 2010, including a loss to Detroit where Green Bay scored only 3 points. But oh well, the Flynnsanity is gaining steam.
• Washington is off the table, and the likely landing spots are either Cleveland or Miami. I have no clue what will happen, but whoever doesn't get Flynn will probably draft a quarterback pretty early.
• After Luck and Griffin, the top QB available is Ryan Tannehill from Texas A&M. If he escapes Cleveland at #4 and Miami at #8, he could fall to Seattle, who can't even get an audience with Manning or Flynn, at pick #12. But my guess is that Pete Carroll is going to freefall into oblivion, secure the #1 pick next year, and start over with Matt Barkey.
• After Tannehill, there are three or four quarterbacks who will be considered in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounds. Kirk Cousins from MSU, Nick Foles from Arizona, Brandon Weeden from Oklahaoma State, and some dude named Brock from Arizona State. I like Weeden as the only guy with any potential in the NFL, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked late in the 1st round, maybe by Cleveland at #22 if they pass of Flynn/Tannehill. Or maybe Denver at pick #25 if they don't get Manning. That would make Twitter explode once and for all.

Detroit picks 23rd, with lots of CBs and OTs available. The top two corners that might be available (Jenkins and Kirkpatrick) are both in trouble with the law. I don't want to mess with that. I'd rather upgrade Stafford's blind spot with Mike Adams from Ohio State, or Jonathan Martin if he's available. I wouldn't be angry if we picked an OLB (Courney Upshaw maybe) or even a guard (DeCastro from Stanford would be awesome).

Once we get closer to the Draft, I'll have a better idea of which way Detroit will be leaning. I really miss Tom Kowalski at a time like this.

Also, today is the NBA trade deadline, so the Dwight Howard Saga will hopefully come to an end. Although, I think he wants to stay in Orlando until the end of this season, so that when he signs with the Nets in the offseason they aren't ravaged like the Knicks were in order to get Carmelo. They'll keep Brook Lopez, Marshon Brooks, and their 1st round pick, three assets they would have to trade to get Howard. In other words, he is absolutely, positively SCREWING Orlando. But you know what, the Nets aren't winning the title in 2012 even if they add Dwight, and he knows this, so good for him for being intelligent and giving himself the best chance of taking down the Heat in next year's playoffs as a member of the Brooklyn Nets. It's cowardly, calculated, and completely selfish. In other words, he's learned from LeBron.

That's all I got. Go Lions.

stuff

I'm a little bummed that nobody commented on my awesome Tigers post last week. I'm just going on blind faith that somebody other than me might have read it.

Also, I've abandoned the Top 50 NBA list, mostly because I was sure nobody except me was going to read it. There were no Pistons in the top 50 (none in the top 100 actually) and a long list of good players who have missed most of the season due to injury. The crammed schedule is really proving to be a mistake; too many injuries, too much sloppy play, too much fatigue.

It's a shame that the NBA is freefalling in popularity, because it hasn't been this good in 15 years. There are at least 6 likeable, young superstars - Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love - and those players alone make the NBA a better product than it was in the treacherous Iverson/McGrady days, when the thug reputation was well-deserved. But nowadays, it's chic to wear nerdy glasses and an expensive suit. The only thing Durant has in common with Iverson is scoring production.

Of course, I didn't even mention the league's three most popular players - LeBron, Kobe, and Jeremy Lin - or the winning-obsessed veterans like Duncan, Nash, Nowitzki and Garnett ... or the charming up-and-comers like John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Ricky Rubio, Russell Westbrook... or the fringe-superstar group of Carmelo, Amare, Rondo, Pierce, Wade, Bosh, Gasol, Deron Williams.

Sure, there are a few bad apples in the bunch, but most of the me-first thugs who nearly ruined the NBA (fools like Stephon Marbury) are long gone. LeBron may be an incredibly selfish person, but he's an unselfish player. The NBA is in a better place than it's been since MJ retired, and hopefully it will stay that way.

All that being said, the current trend of superstars joining forces is really, really, REALLY lame, and makes me not want to watch a minute of the playoffs. When Dwight Howard and Deron Williams join together next year (on either the Mavs, Lakers or Nets), it's gonna be super uncool. The Miami Heat Effect is probably my second least favorite thing in sports right now, behind the BCS.

Speaking of college football, we're less than two months from the Draft and that means I'm gearing up for my annual mock draft. Last year I whiffed almost as badly as the Lions did with the Nick Fairley pick.

Seriously, I'm not a Fairley hater, I think he'll make a solid starter when we lose Corey Williams, but there were four guys that would have been far better picks: Mike Pouncey, Anthony Castonzo, Gabe Carimi, Prince Amukamara. All of those guys made more sense for Detroit, and all of those guys will have much better careers than Fairley. Pouncey might be the 2nd best center in football.

The top overall pick in this draft is locked in, and anybody who thinks the Colts are considering RG3 is crazy. Andrew Luck will be a Colt just as certainly as Peyton Manning won't be.

The 2nd pick is totally up for grabs: the Rams have announced their intentions to trade it, and whoever offers the most will attain Robert Griffin III. The top bidders are Miami, Cleveland and Washington, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone else slips their name in sneakily. Presumably, Cleveland has the most to offer (two 1st round picks), but with as many holes as they have on their roster, it might be wise to keep their picks and keep rebuilding around McCoy. Washington also has a myriad of needs, though Mike Shanahan wouldn't agree; Miami has the best roster of teams believed to be interested in Griffin, and thus might be willing to offer the most for the #2 pick. At least that's my presumption.

A huge factor might be Peyton Manning's whereabouts. If he signs with a team prior to the draft, it'll obviously take them out of the running. His most rumored destinations are Miami and Washington, with a dash of the Cardinals, Jets and Titans, and I wouldn't count out anybody else who isn't completely happy with their quarterback.

But my best guess is that Manning won't be healthy enough to get any guaranteed money from anybody in the next two months, and if I had to bet on it, I'd say his career is over. Who knows. It probably won't factor into the Draft, but it could.

After Luck and Griffin go off the board, the Vikings get the first pick among non-quarterbacks. The decision should be an easy one (Matt Kalil, LT), but I'm holding out hope that they stupidly pick WR Justin Blackmon or CB Morris Claiborne. Then at pick #4 is Cleveland (or St. Louis if they trade). This will probably be Blackmon either way.

The #5 pick is very enigmatic right now. Tampa and new head coach Greg Schiano (the unknown guy from Rutgers) have needs all over the field. Claiborne probably makes the most sense if he's available, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Schiano make a bold move and take RB Trent Richardson or even an offensive lineman, possibly Jonathan Martin or Riley Reiff.

At #6 is Washington, assuming they don't trade up to #2. Given Shanahan's stupidity, this pick is likely to be a disaster. Common sense would say to pick Blackmon or Claiborne if they are available, or Reiff/Martin if not. But something tells me Shanahan will try to be real sly and will take Shit McGritt who was supposed to go in the 3rd round. Who knows. Maybe Kirk Cousins.

I'll continue the rest of the mock draft at a later date ... it's really hard to figure out the Lions at pick #23. It's foreign territory picking so late. With LeShoure and Fairley coming back healthy, the Lions feel like they've already got 2 first round picks under contract, which is awesome. This pick should be a CB or offensive lineman, but we all know how logical Jim Schwartz is with draft picks. He'll probably continue his love affair with pass-rushers and take an OLB or DE, which isn't completely stupid considering how lousy VandenBosch was by the end of the year. But there are bigger needs. And there's no depth in the secondary or on the O-line. There's tons of depth at DE and LB.

We'll have to see what happens with Cliff Avril and Stephen Tulloch though. If one or both of them are gone, that changes things. My guess is still that we lose Avril but keep Tulloch. That's what I'm hoping for.

Go Lions.

Go Ron Paul!

Thoughts on Tigers 2012

The loss of Victor Martinez was devastating. The addition of Prince Fielder, miraculous.

Heading into 2012, the Tigers are the overwhelming favorites to win the AL Central, anchored by three MVP candidates in Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Fielder. They have a closer who went 49 for 49 in save opportunities, All Stars at catcher and shortstop, a solid pitching rotation, and a top 10 bullpen according to MLB.com. They've got good lefties, good righties, and a couple of elite defensive players. Unfortunately, they've also got Jim Leyland, looming over the whole project like a rain cloud.

With the three-headed monster of JV, Miggy and Prince, the Tigers are built to terrify opponents. No team in the Majors has a trio of stars to rival Detroit. And yet, the chinks in the armor are plentiful and no skipper could expose them more clumsily than Jimmy Smokes.

Let's break things down and offer a few thoughts and predictions:

Offense

The team's primary strength is the bats of Cabrera and Fielder, who combined for 68 homers and 225 RBI last year. Cabby bats right, Prince bats left, and both guys hit for average. As long as both players stay healthy, the offense will thrive.

But whether Detroit clinches the AL Central in July or September will be largely determined by the rest of the offense, namely the black holes at 1, 8 and 9.

Hitting in the 2-hole will likely be Brennan Boesch, who loves to bat in front of Cabrera. Hitting 5 and 6 will be Peralta and Avila on most nights, and that sequence of five batters is as good as any in baseball. But Leyland's primary objective this year has to be improving production from the leadoff spot and the bottom 3 batters in the lineup. Last year, those spots probably batted around .230 with little to no power; I'd grade them somewhere around a D+.

If Austin Jackson and Ryan Raburn can stop striking out and at least force opposing pitchers to work, it will open things up tremendously. And of course, Brandon Inge cannot be permitted to play one single inning in a Tigers jersey this year. (Just found out Inge is being considered for the everyday job at 2nd. Excuse me while I go outside and bury my face in the snow).

The rest of the offense will be a shuffle between Andy Dirks, Ramon Santiago, Don Kelly, Clete Thomas, and some promising youngsters like Castellanos and Santos. Delmon Young is still a Tiger but reportedly doesn't want to DH, so his departure might be forthcoming.

That brings up the biggest issue of the season. Who is the Tigers DH?
If Leyland sticks to his strategy of playing Cabrera at 3rd, that is.

With Magglio gone, there's no obvious defensive liability, and no big fat slow guy. It could be Boesch occassionally, or Delmon if he stays on the team, or Peralta on some nights if Santiago can play shortstop. It could also be Raburn with Santiago at 2nd, or Clete if Leyland wants to go lefty-heavy. It'll also be Avila once every week or two, as long as Santos doesn't completely suck. And if Castellanos plays well at 3rd, we'll see Miggy in the DH spot regularly too.

So all that to say, here's my prediction: the 2012 Tigers will break the Major League record for 'Most Different Players in the DH Spot in a Single Season.'

I've done a bunch of searching and can't figure out what the record is, but whatever it is, I think Leyland will manufacture enough roster-tinkering bullcrap to break it.

We all saw Leyland's masterpiece last year, when he didn't use the same starting lineup two games in a row until August. He made mid-game substitutions in every single game, usually in the 8th or 9th inning, and he hit players like Raburn and Kelly in every different spot in the order except clean-up, all in the vain effort to turn .220 batters into .290 batters.

It didn't work.

Leyland's lineup antics were pointless at best, infuriating at worst. If the old curmudgeon would have listened to fans and critics way back in May instead of waiting until July (when Dombroski mandated certain changes), the Tigers would have clinched their division - the worst division in baseball - at least 30 days earlier than they did.

But no, every day we were treated to an enigma of a lineup, asking ourselves questions like "Why does Boesch need a rest? He just had a day off last week and he's only 24 years old!" Or, "Why the heck is Raburn batting 3rd?" Or my personal favorite, "Why is Inge hitting ahead of Avila??!??"

This year, it's folly to think Leyland will change. He won't. We'll see Cabrera at the DH spot and Inge starting at 3rd within a week, and we'll see Cabby at 3rd and Fielder hitting DH within two weeks. Then we'll see Clete DH, then Boesch, then Raburn, then Avila, then Dirks, then Mike Ilitich. The addition of Prince Fielder, while magnificent, gives Leyland the perfect excuse to micromanage this offense into oblivion.

To play devil's advocate, I honestly don't know what I would do in Leyland's position. There isn't a great answer for the DH conundrum. I agree with Cabby at 3rd, at least until he starts leading the league in errors. I'd probably try like crazy to keep Delmon Young and convince him to be a great DH, while Boesch, AJ, and Dirks play the outfield. Whatever I'd do, I'd make a decision to be consistent. Leyland detests consistency.

And so, for better or worse, get ready to see 15 different Tigers in the Designated Hitter position in 2012. The lineup will look completely different from night to night, depending on the opposing pitcher's handedness and horoscope.

...Oh, I almost forgot. Leyland brought back his favorite player, good old Gerald Laird. You may remember him as the guy who hit .207 back in 2010. I know this will shock you, but Leyland thinks he can take a useless hitter and revitalize him. We all saw how great that worked with Inge last year, going from a .089 average in June to a sparkling .200 in August.

Also should mention that Wilson Betemit signed with the Orioles, Casper Wells went to Seattle, Will Rhymes is in Tampa, and Guillen and Magglio are currently looking for jobs. Danny Worth (utility infielder) is still on the roster.

Overall, the offense is probably a 92 out of 100, as it stands now.

If Inge doesn't play a game all year, and if Jackson's OBP can get up around .330 (.345 as a rookie, .317 last year), and if Avila and Peralta and Boesch continue playing how they played last year, and if quick baserunners like Dirks and Santiago and AJax are allowed to use their speed once in a while, and if Leyland stays out of his own way and plays the best 9 guys each night, this offense could be a 97 out of 100, by far the best in baseball.

Or, if none of those things happen, and Leyland manages like an asshole again, our offense will be a mid-to-high 80s and we'll still dominate the AL Central.

Pitching and Defense

We can't count on another MVP season by Verlander, but we can certainly count on him being the best pitcher in baseball again. The AL Cy Young is his to lose.

Doug Fister was unbelievably good as soon as the Tigers traded for him, going 8-1 and allowing two or fewer runs in 10 of his 11 starts. The only exception was a brutal game against Baltimore where the Orioles racked up 12 hits, but I'm willing to call that an anomaly. Fister is easily the best #2 starter in the AL if he pitches the way he pitched late last season.

Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello were basically the same guy last year; Max had an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP (walks+hits/inning pitched) of 1.35, while Porcello compiled a 4.75 and 1.41. Both pitchers were very inconsistent, at times looking dominant and at times looking terrible. They probably won't change much this year, as both pitchers have a limited arsenal of pitches. But for a third and fourth starter, they're good enough.

Brad Penny was a notch worse than Max and Rick. His ERA was a respectable 4.61 midway through the season, but in the final months of the year he fell apart, hurling a 6.75 ERA in September. He pitched less than 2 innings in the postseason, and allowed 5 runs and 7 hits. He's now a member of the Fukuoka Hawks.

Before Fister's arrival, and even after his arrival, the fifth spot in the rotation was a mess last year. Phil Coke got the first 14 starts and did pretty lousy before heading back to the bullpen; Duane Below, Andrew Oliver, and Charlie Furbush got 2 starts apiece and combined to go 1-4 with a +5 ERA.

The answer for the 5th starter is former 1st round pick Jacob Turner, who showed flashes of his potential last year in his first career start. Turner went 5 innings against the Angels, allowing 3 hits and 1 run, with 6 pretty awesome strikeouts. Then Leyland took Turner out too early, put in Cokey, and Detroit lost 5-1. Turner has been deemed untradeable by Dombrowski for the last two seasons, and has been compared to a young Verlander because of his size, poise, overpowering fastball and developing curveball. Sure, Turner has bust potential, but he also has potential to be the Tigers missing piece and give them the best starting rotation in the AL.

The bullpen was probably the weakest aspect of the 2011 Tigers, other than the bats of Inge and Jackson. Valverde was half-amazing, half-lucky, while Joaquin Benoit stunk for two months and then pitched 22 straight scoreless innings. Al Albuquerque showed a lot of promise, but got hurt three times and now he's out for the year. Daniel Schlereth was pretty below-average, and so were Ryan Perry, David Purcey and Brad Thomas. Coke was a decent addition to the bullpen midway through the year, but he's not exactly a stud.

The big addition this offseason was Octavio Dotel, a 38 year old Dominican who has pitched for 12 different MLB teams and tossed more than 800 innings in his career. His lifetime ERA is a modest 3.74, with a 1.24 WHIP. Dotel isn't stunning, but he's probably got another solid season in his arm and can be the 7th inning guy Detroit needs.

Defensively, the Tigers are anchored by arguably the best center fielder in the league and an elite catcher, but that's pretty much where the star power ends. Boesch and Dirks are capable outfielders, and Prince is a solid first baseman. Peralta and Cabrera are going to struggle, and the 2nd baseman platoon is average at best.

Look for Leyland to insert Santiago and/or Kelly and/or Inge late in close games, moving Cabby to DH. I'm okay with that as long as it doesn't screw up the offense, but it usually does. My personal opinion is - who cares about defense if you can score 8 runs a game? Play the best batters and score the most runs. But Leyland LOVES defense to the same irrational degree that he loves players like Laird and Perry. We'll see more defensive substitutions than we can count.

Overall Prediction

The Tigers went 95-67 last year, thanks in large part to a 12 game winning streak in September. They won the AL Central by 15 games, but it took a lot of wallowing in mediocrity before finally blowing away the under-talented Indians and White Sox.

Detroit was 4th in the AL in runs, 3rd in average, 7th in home runs, dead-last in stolen bases, 5th in strikeouts, 5th in walks. They lose the .330 average of Victor Martinez, but replace him with the .299 average of Prince Fielder, who was 2nd in the NL in home runs, 3rd in slugging percentage, 2nd in RBI, 2nd in walks, and 1st in intentional walks.

No doubt, we'll miss Martinez's ability to get hits with guys on base. His BA with runners in scoring position was the best in baseball. We'll miss his ability to work pitch counts and advance runners. But what we lose in batting average we gain in power, and in fear. Nobody really pitched around Cabrera last year with Victor behind him, but they'll be even more scared this year. Cabrera is the #1 rated player in fantasy baseball for a very good reason, and that reason is Prince Fielder.

The 2011 pitching staff ranked 7th in the AL (out of 14 teams) in terms of ERA with a 4.04. We were 8th in strikeouts, 8th in walks, 8th in WHIP, and 6th in strikeouts/walk. Obviously, those numbers aren't very good when you consider we had a pitcher who went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and led the Majors in strikeouts by 20. A large part of the problem was the bullpen, but the starters weren't faultless.

It's unrealistic to think Detroit will improve in every single statistic without falling behind in other places, but I do think Detroit's a better team on offense and in pitching. Jacob Turner could be an invaluable addition, and removing Inge from the everyday lineup is almost as helpful as adding Fielder. I have an ugly feeling that somebody from the offense is going to completely fall apart for no good reason (my hunch is maybe Peralta), but I hope that doesn't happen.

My regular season prediction is 103-59, the best record in the AL and 15 games ahead of second place in the AL Central - surprising Kansas City. Maybe a tad brash, but we'll see. I think Cabrera finishes second in MVP voting to some chump like Evan Longoria or Eric Hosmer, JV narrowly loses the Cy Young to Dan Haren, and Turner completes the 2nd Place Trifecta by finished second for ROY to some guy I've not yet heard of. Leyland will inexplicably win Manager of the Year despite his feeble attempts to destroy the Tigers, and I'm going to hold off making any playoff predictions right now so I don't look stupid.

Go Tigers!

First game is April 5 vs Boston.

NFL season recap

Nailed the Super Bowl pick of Giants by 4, even though the game didn't play out exactly how I thought. But I was pretty close: 'Patriots go up, Eli comes back, Pats D is terrible, hailmary falls incomplete.' Funny this, in retrospect, was neither team deserved to be in the Super Bowl. Ravens-49ers would have been much better. The Giants were a 9-7 team in a crappy division, and the Pats' defense was akin to the 2008 Lions. Kind of a dumb ending to a great season.

Can't wait for the April draft (otherwise called the RG3 lovefest), the revival of Tebowmania, the Lions trying to fill some holes in free agency, a weird season of fantasy football where there's more great tight ends than running backs, the rookie campaigns of Luck and Griffin, and of course, the start of the 2012 season. Right now my Super Bowl pick is Texans v. Packers.

I'm even excited about the 'Where Will Peyton Manning Play?' saga.

I finished this season 137-128-10 against the spread (51.7%) , and 179-86 straight-up (67.5%).

Pretty awesome straight-up, but I was 54.1% last year ATS, so a little disappointed there. Two years ago when I picked straight-up I also went 67%.

Also, since I began doing picks, I am 3-0 ATS (and 3-0 straight-up) in Super Bowls.


Working on a Top 50 NBA list which nobody cares about ...
Also uber-excited about the Tigers.