Last week:
6-8 ATS
8-5 straight up (one tie)
Overall:
74-70-5 ATS (51.3%)
86-59-1 straight up (59.3%)
It was another strange week. In the three primetime games, the average score was a paltry 18-10; in the 11 midday games, scoring absolutely abounded, with the winning team scoring at least 28 in all but one contest, and that contest was a 24-24 tie.
There were plenty of blowouts, some very unexpected, like Tennessee (6 point underdogs) whooping Miami by 34 on the road (glad I changed that pick) or Cincinnati (5 point underdogs) stomping the Giants.
What do we take away from those crazy contests? Is Chris Johnson finally trustworthy? Is Jake Locker a budding star? What about Andy Dalton? Is AJ Green the best receiver in the whole stinking league already? Is Miami terrible? Is Ryan Tannehill a bust? Can anyone catch the Colts and Steelers for the wildcards? What about the Giants -- are they secretly bad, or are they tricking us into forgetting about them once again so they can be the first ever "Nobody Believed In Us" mini-dynasty?
Those were just two of the crazy week 10 games. In other news, Baltimore racked up 55 points on Oakland despite being outgained in yards. The Saints and Bucs proved that the NFC South is still a division to be reckoned with. Dallas, New England and Denver showcased their high-octane offenses and scored in the high 30s. The Eagles and Cardinals extended their losing streaks to 5 games, and Detroit, Carolina, and St. Louis were essentially eliminated from the NFC playoff picture, barring a miracle. Also, four starting QBs were knocked out: Vick, Alex Smith, Cutler, and Roethlisberger. All four could sit for week 11, and Vick could be done in Philly altogether.
In the AFC, Jacksonville and KC look like the future homes of QBs Geno Smith and Matt Barkley (likely draft picks #1 and #2), as they both ride hideous 6-game losing streaks. The elite teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack, while the Jets, Bill and Chargers have fallen apart and are already looking for new coaches.
In fact, as many as ten coaches could be fired before February. Consider:
Andy Reid - Philly's "dynasty team" is 3-6 and Reid himself said before the season he would be fired if they finish 8-8 or worse.
Ron Rivera - Carolina is 2-7 after a summer of Super Bowl hype. It's truly the GM's fault, not the coach's, but nonetheless, Rivera will be back to being a defensive coordinator soon.
Chan Gailey - Chan is about to wrap up his third straight underachieving season with the Bills. Barring a blistering end to the season, he'll be gone.
Pat Shurmur - With Mike Holmgren (the guy who hired him) already gone, Shurmur will be mercifully allowed to finish the season, but won't be back unless the Browns miraculously win the rest of their games.
Norv Turner - He has a better chance at being President of the USA than being coach of the Chargers next year.
Romeo Crennel - It may or may not be his fault that the Chiefs are terrible. But when a team is as bad as the Chiefs are, especially a team with quite a bit of talent, the coach has to go. That's the nature of today's NFL.
Rex Ryan - If he would just shut up, his job would probably be safe. But all the hype and attention and trash talk really magnifies the Jets' struggles. Plus his fate is linked with Mark Sanchez, which is a bad place to be.
Jason Garrett - Personally, I think he's a decent coach. But if Dallas misses the playoffs for the third straight year, he's possibly the scapegoat.
Marvin Lewis - Ten seasons coaching the Bengals. Zero playoff wins. Could the run finally end?
Mike Mularkey - The Jags are the worst team in the NFL, but Mularkey didn't draft Blaine Gabbert, so he should be given more than one season. But who knows. If they are going to rebuild with Genoor Barkley, they may want a new coach to lead the new regime.
Dennis Allen - Another first year coach, so he's probably safe. But Oakland has been awful, and Allen makes terrible decisions that show he's in over his head.
That's eleven. And there are plenty of others (Jim Schwartz, for example) who aren't exactly earning contract extensions. It's a pretty crazy league when more than half of the coaches who don't make the playoffs are canned. But, the same thing happened last year. It's a billion-dollar industry, so I'm not feeling bad for any of them.
Personally, I would be more than happy if the Angry Era of Jim Schwartz ended in Detroit and both his clueless coordinators went with him. Maybe we could swoop in and grab Reid as the new O-Coordinator or Rivera as the D-Coordinator or something like that. Some proven winners would be a nice change.
Anyway ... here are the week 11 picks:
Dolphins (4-5) @ Bills (3-6)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: BUF by 3
Fred Jackson is out with a concussion, which actually helps the Bills, because CJ Spiller leads the NFL with 7.3 YPC and the Bills played their two best games of the season when Fred was sidelined (granted, against Cleveland and KC). Miami ranks 5th against the run, but they gave up 177 rushing yards last week to Tennessee, and they seem to be deteriorating defensively. That should make for an interesting matchup.
Miami's gameplan is simple: keep the score low. They usually succeed offensively, as they've exceeded 21 points only twice. But defensively, they go up and down, depending on the week. Against the turnover-happy Bills in cold weather, it should be safe to take the points. Especially on a Thursday, when scoring is notoriously limited. Bills win, 13-12.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1)
Predicted Line: ATL by 16.5
Actual Line: ATL by 10
How could this game possibly be close?
Falcons offense: If Patrick Peterson is guarding Roddy White, throw to Julio Jones. If Peterson guards Jones, throw to White. If Peterson somehow guards both guys, throw to Gonzalez. Build an early lead. Then run the ball.
Falcons defense: put 5 guys on Fitzgerald, completely ignore the nonexistent running back, and send pass rush at horrible O-line. Your early lead will force Kolb to throw, and you'll end up running an INT (or two) back for 6.
I just don't see it going any other way. Especially in Atlanta. I'll say Falcons go up 28-0 at halftime and win 45-10.
Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5)
Predicted Line: DAL by 8.5
Actual Line: DAL by 8
Cowboys are way too unstable to be laying 8 points. Even against Cleveland. I've learned my lesson with them too many times. Dallas 27-20.
*EDIT - Joe Haden is not going to play. In that case, I should probably take the Cowboys +8. Maybe 27-13. Ughh, I'm probably going to regret that.
Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 3.5
Remember all those 3rd downs, where Matt Stafford showed no urgency to complete a pass or move the chains, and instead willfully took a sack or threw the ball out of bounds? Remember the times it was 3rd and 8 and he threw a useless 4 yard dumpoff to Pettigrew or Joique Bell, realizing that it had no chance of moving the chains, but figuring it was better than taking a risk? Remember all those fricking plays in the red zone where he didn't even try to loft the ball to Calvin, but instead threw the ball out of bounds because a field goal is just as good as a touchdown?
Well, the reason all those plays were important ... is because now we're 4-5 and we have to play the Packers, then the Texans, then the Packers again two weeks later. Anybody ready to be 4-9? And end up 5-11? Because that's our fate. All because we couldn't beat the Vikings, Titans, and Vikings again. Those were three games we should have won. And even though the secondary and coaching have been abysmal and even though the running backs have been lousy, and even though Pettigrew is the worst football player in the universe and Stephan Logan is a disgrace and the receivers drop way too many passes and the O-line isn't great and the D-line leads the league in penalties, I still am more than willing to place the blame squarely on Matthew Stafford.
I know Stafford hasn't jumped offsides 14 times like Nick Fairley, I know he doesn't give up 70 yard touchdowns passes to wide open 3rd string receivers like our entire secondary, and I know he doesn't make the decision to run on 2nd and 10 like Scott Linehan ... but it's his inability to execute and "make plays" (pardon the cliche) that has the Lions 4-5, instead of 7-2, where they should be if they beat the teams they should have beat. And when you consider that 3 of our 4 wins were miracle comebacks, we could easily be 1-8. We've played a lot more like a 1-8 team than a 7-2 team. And by "we," I mostly mean our quarterback.
About 6 weeks ago I said that I was ready for Shaun Hill. I've held off on saying that week after week because Stafford is, after all, our franchise quarterback, the guy who threw for 5,000 yards in a year, the second fastest QB to throw for 10,000 yards, blah blah blah blah blah .....
Perhaps I'm being too critical, but I'm not that impressed by yards. I look at QB rating, turnovers, completion percentage, yards per attempt, red zone TD percentage, and third down completion percentage. Those are the stats that help you win games. I recently heard an interview with Ben Roethlisberger where they rattled off some stats about his TDs and yards, and he said the same thing "The three most important stats for a QB are completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 3rd down conversion percentage." I couldn't have agreed more.
In those areas, Stafford isn't a top 15 quarterback at all. He's barely in the top 20.
In YPA, he's below 4 rookies, including Tannehill who isn't any good.
In completion percentage, he's behind Dalton and Ponder.
In QB rating, he's sandwiched between Kolb and Bradford.
On third downs, he's comparable to Vick and Cassel.
So while his yardage marks make him the contemporary Joe Montana or Dan Marino, I question if that's more of a result of having thrown the most passes in the NFL two years in a row. (Also, should be noted he plays with that Calvin Johnson guy.)
Funny thing is, Detroit leads the NFL in passing attempts, but still manages to run an offense that's way too conservative. They run the ball and kick field goals in the first half, and consequently they've trailed at halftime in 8 of their 9 games this season (ridiculous!), which causes them to throw like maniacs in the 4th quarter.
Stafford's average game statistically has been solid: 27/43 for 302 yards. But I think it's safe to approximate that the average 1st half is 7/15 for 90 yards, and the average second half is 20/28 for 212 yards.
Heck, look at the Lions scoring by quarter this year:
1st quarter - 28 points
2nd quarter - 47 points
3rd quarter - 20 points
4th quarter - 121 points
And if you throw out the one good game Detroit has played all year (Jacksonville), it's a sum of 74 points in the first 3 quarters compared to 111 in the 4th quarter.
What the heck.
So what does this bizarre situation tell us about our Lions?
Detroit is the master of scoring garbage time points?
The coaching is terrible and doesn't make adjustments?
The playcalling sucks?
Stafford doesn't have any urgency until the 4th quarter?
Stafford is unflappable?
I say yes, to all of the above.
I'm taking the Packers, but I'm taking the points just in case. Clay Matthews and Greg Jennings are out. I'm sure their replacements will have terrific games, but anytime you're missing two stud players and are on the road, it's probably worth taking the 3 points. Packers 30-27.
*Wait, I've got one last rant about the Lions....
I'm sick and tired of everybody saying the Lions secondary has all these injury problems. Everyone is using that stupid excuse on every TV, radio and website. It's not a legitimate excuse. When your week 1 secondary is a quartet of castoffs who were cut from teams that aren't any good, and those guys get hurt and you replace them with other guys who suck, and this whole problem is because the front office drafts sexy positions instead of drafting for NEED once in a while, it's not because of the injuries that your secondary sucks. Our perfectly healthy secondary gave up 378 passing yards to Jake Locker. If all your defensive backs in Madden were a 62 out of 100, and they all got hurt and you replaced them with a bunch of 61s, would injuries really be the problem?
You know what, screw Detroit, I'm taking the Packers to cover. 37-20.
Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8)
Predicted Line: CIN by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 3.5
Beware the Arrowhead homedog! Cincy just played 3 straight at home and they're ready for a loss on the road. Plus, KC is not as bad as their record. They have some talent. Chiefs 22-17.
Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 2.5
Actual Line: STL by 3.5
Man, I hate ties. They screw everything up. Why not just play a 2nd overtime?
Picking Jets games is like going to the circus and betting on which clown is the best juggler. It's a stupid waste of time, but at least you get to see some clowns. They could win by 50, lose by 50, or anything in between. The Rams are pretty consistent, they've been competitive against everyone against New England, but I don't know about this line. I'll say Rams by 2.
Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4
Actual Line: WAS by 4
The Eagles have got to be pretty close to quitting on their season. Five-game losing streak, 2 straight blowouts, injured QB, dead-duck coach. Even with veteran leaders like Asomugha and Cole, I can't see them putting up much effort.
Washington, on the other hand, still believes they can make the playoffs. Coming off 3 tough losses, they caught a bye at the right time and finally have RG3 at 100%. He should have a terrific game, despite his lack of receiving weapons.
But the story of this game is Nick Foles, who will get the start in place of Vick.
One of the nice things about being an NFL Draft junkie is that when a guy like Foles suddenly becomes a starting QB, I already know a little bit about him. I know he's very tall, not super mobile, throws a monster deep ball, but lacks accuracy and decision making ability. I know he's a good fit for Philly because of the downfield threats with Jackson and Maclin's speed, but I think he'll struggle against NFL pass rushes and the intelligence of NFL secondaries. He'll probably throw 1 or 2 successful deep balls in this game, but he'll likely heave at least 1 interception as well. He has a long way to go to prove he can be a starting QB in the NFL, but he has the size and arm to be the next Josh Freeman or even Ben Roethlisberger. He just needs to develop the footwork, intelligence and accuracy, otherwise he'll be the next John Skelton or John Navarre.
I could certainly see this game ending up pretty close. Philly's bad offensive line will be relived to see Washington's weak pass rush, and McCoy should be able to make Foles' life a lot easier. But with Foles on the road against a division rival and the potential of Philly completely giving up and quitting on their coach, I feel better taking Washington to cover. Let's say 33-23.
Bucs (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7)
Predicted Line: TB by 1
Actual Line: TB by 2
Did you know Tampa has the league's #1 rushing defense, in terms of both yards per game and yards per attempt? It's probably safe to say Gerald McCoy has surpassed Ndamukong Suh as the best defensive tackle from the 2010 draft. How sad. But one of the biggest reasons for Tampa's stifling defense has been rookie OLB Lavonte David, who has a league-high 30 tackles in the past two weeks. You probably don't remember my final mock draft from April, but I was hoping the Lions would take Lavonte with pick 54, if he were available. I watched enough highlights of him at Nebraska to be convinced he would be an NFL stud.
Well, he was available at pick 54, but instead Detroit took Ryan Broyles, who is a nice 3rd string receiver but certainly not a 2nd round pick. If the Lions really did want to take the best player available, as they claim they do, they would have taken Lavonte David. Instead, they tried to be cute and take Broyles. Well, David just might be making a push for Defensive Rookie of the Year and might be a Pro Bowler within a couple years. If Ryan Broyles ever makes the Pro Bowl, I'll run through the mall naked on Black Friday.
Along with their #1 rushing defense, Tampa has the league's #32 passing defense, at 321 yards per game. But this is deceiving. Tampa ranks 3rd in the league with 15 INTs, and has some solid playmakers in the secondary, namely Mark Barron and Ronde Barber. Trading Aqib Talib away for peanuts may not have been very smart, and signing Eric Wright certainly wasn't smart, but the main problem with their secondary is caused by their lack of a pass rush. Adrian Clayborn's injury has been tough for them, and DaQuan Bowers hasn't panned out yet.
All that to say ... I still believe in Cam Newton, and Steve Smith should have a nice game. I like the homedog Panthers in a shootout, 38-34.
Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1)
Predicted Line: Hmmm ... let's say HOU by 17.5
Actual Line: HOU by 15.5
If Jones-Drew were playing, I'd consider taking the points. But he's not. Houston 27-0.
Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 5.5
Are the Saints the only team to ever start 0-4 and then five games later be favored by almost 6 on the road? Probably so. I'll take them anyway. Brees is on fire, the Raiders still don't have McFadden. NO 31-16.
Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 8
If Denver wins, I think Norv Turner will be fired within 24 hours. That's my hunch. And I think Norv knows this, which will part of the reason why Denver wins. Also, Peyton Manning. Broncos by 13.
Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 9
I love being right. And while I wasn't the only one who thought Andrew Luck would be a stud, I was pretty adamant about it. A lot of people forget, he would have been the #1 pick in 2011 if he declared. Remember when he stayed in school to get his architecture degree, everyone said it was so risky, he might get hurt, blah blah blah. Well, he used that year to improve, to play a pro style offense, and to basically enter the NFL without any learning curve. He was a top 15 quarterback the day he was drafted. He was a top 10 quarterback within 4 weeks. And by week 11, he has surpassed the previous three #1 overall picks: he's already a better quarterback than Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, and Sam Bradford.
The scary thing is - so is Robert Griffin.
But Luck is better than Griffin, maybe not in explosiveness or excitement, but in consistency and arm strength and for the mere fact that he's much less likely to get hurt. Back in May, I ranked the quarterbacks, and had Luck at 15 before he played a single game. Now, if I redid that list, Luck would leap past several quarterbacks, including Vick, Flacco, Cam, Stafford and Rivers.
I would still put Rodgers and Brady at 1 and 2, with Brees, Matt Ryan, and Peyton rounding out the top 5, and then Eli and Ben at 6 and 7. Then, it's probably Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Tony Romo in the top 10.
Then ... Schaub, Flacco, Rivers ... Cutler, Stafford, Cam .... Freeman, Dalton, Ponder, Locker, Bradford... Alex Smith, Mike Vick, Russell Wilson ... Fitzpatrick, Kolb, Sanchez, Palmer ... Tannehill, Gabbert, Cassell, Weeden. That's 32. I guess Tebow squeezes in somewhere between Fitzpatrick and Kolb.
So anyway, I'm taking the Patriots to win, given the Colts terrible roster, but I certainly think Andrew Luck can keep the score close. Maybe Aqib Talib shuts down Reggie Wayne in his first game as a Patriot, but maybe Andrew Luck finds someone else to throw to. Pats 27-23.
Ravens (7-2) @ Steelers (6-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3.5 (Roethlisberger out)
Actual Line: BAL by 3.5
93% of the betting is on Baltimore, so Vegas must be thinking they are awfully sneaky with this line so low. What's the reason - is Byron Leftwich going to be better than people think? Is Pittsburgh's defense finally healthy? Will it be the Heinz Field factor that keeps this game close?
Back in 2010 when Ben had to sit for 4 games, the Steelers went 3-1, and the loss was a home game against Baltimore. Final score: 17-14. A lot has changed in two years, but Mike Tomlin, Troy Polamalu, and 65,000 screaming, stupid Pittsburgh fans will still be there, so I expect the same result. 17-14 Ravens.
Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 5.5 (Cutler and Smith both out?)
Actual Line: SF by 5
Sounds like Alex Smith might play, and Jay Cutler definitely won't. Regardless of who the quarterbacks are, I'm all over San Fran for this game. I'll say Niners 23-13. And if Smith sits, I think Colin Kaepernick has a great game. That dude can play. Jason Campbell, I'm not so sure.
That's it for now. GO Lions!!!
Also, Torii Hunter!! Hitting in the 2-hole ahead of Miggy, Prince and V-Mart. That's an amazing top 5. I can't wait to see how Leyland mismanages that roster!
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Week 10 Picks
Great week last week: 10-4 ATS and 11-3 straight up.
68-62-5 ATS on the season and 78-54 straight up. Finally above .500.
Also, the Lions played their best game of the season by far, granted against a horrendous opponent. But a blowout win on the road is a blowout win on the road, and coupled with losses by Minnesota, Arizona and the entire NFC East, I'll take it. The Wildcard is within striking distance -- however, we pretty much need to beat the Packers twice to have any hope for the playoffs. That, or the Bears need to lose about 5 in a row.
Here are my week 10 picks:
Colts (5-3) @ Jaguars (1-7) - Thursday night
Predicted Line: IND by 2
Actual Line: IND by 3.5
With Jones-Drew out, the Jags are pretty much an NCAA team, especially on offense. Why does Justin Blackmon suck so much? Receivers taken in the top 10 are supposed to be gamechangers, not pedestrians.
They still have a solid defense against the run (not last week, but usually), but as we saw last week, Indy doesn't need to run. They are currently tied for 4th in the NFL in passing attempts. If they stick to the same gameplan they used against Miami (24 runs, 48 passes), they'll win this game big. Andrew Luck just set the record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie (433), so he should have some momentum going.
There are some pretty decent trends that would lead me to choose Jacksonville ... homedogs rarely lose ATS two weeks in a row, and home teams tend to cover on Thursdays, and there's a good chance I'm going to want those 3 points given the fact that every Thursday game has been nothing but field goals. However, I'm going with Andrew Luck once again, and saying the Colts win their 4th straight game, 27-16.
*In fact, as a testament to my faith in Luck, I just dropped Phillip Rivers, leaving Luck as my only fantasy QB. Which probably doesn't matter, considering my team is 1-8. But still.
Giants (6-3) @ Bengals (3-5)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4
Actual Line: NYG by 4.5
Remember when Cincy was 3-1 with an easy schedule coming up? Now they're about to be 3-6. Yikes. Giants, the best road team in the league, win by 14. Eli Manning, by the way, has a mere 8 fantasy points in his last two games. I'm thinking he'll top that within 5 minutes of this game, and end up scoring 30+ for all the goofballs who bench him.
Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3.5
Actual Line: MIA by 6
Don't like laying 6 points with Ryan Tannehill and a bunch of bad receivers, but I don't see the Titans scoring more than 10 or 13 against Miami's tough defense. Maybe a big game for Reggie Bush. Fins 23-6.
*EDIT: I'm thinking Jake Locker's return might provide a boost for the Titans. If nothing else, he can keep plays alive with his feet. I still want Miami, but not I'll say the Titans cover and keep it close.
Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (5-4)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 1
I'm pretty impressed with the Lions two game winning streak. The Vikings, on the other hand, have lost two straight, neither of which were to great teams. While Adrian Peterson is rushing for 8.3 yards per carry over his past 3 games (!!!), Christian Ponder has very surprisingly declined, and declined at an alarming rate.
Here are Ponder's QB ratings in order this season: 105, 114, 94, 71, 87, 83, 35, 74, 37.
His completion percentage has plummeted, he threw for less than 70 yards in two of his last three games, and Vikings fans are starting to beg for Joe Webb.
I can't decide if the Lions are catching the Vikings at the perfect time, or if Ponder is just in a mini-slump and Detroit will go into the game overly confident and end up playing like crap on both sides of the ball, kind of like they did the first 4 weeks of the season.
Chances are, with the way AP is running the ball, Detroit won't have a repeat of last week where they go up early and never feel threatened. Most likely, Minnesota goes up 14-3 early thanks to Detroit's lack of urgency on offense and overpursuit on defense plus a special teams TD, then it's 17-10 at halftime, and Detroit spends the whole 3rd quarter trying to get Leshoure going to no avail, before finally going to Calvin in the 4th and pulling out an improbable 27-24 win with 5 seconds left. That seems to be the Schwartz and Linehan gameplan. Blowing this game could cost be troublesome for Ponder and Frazier, in terms of keeping their jobs. It'll also give Detroit some serious hopes at reclaiming their shot at the playoffs. Go Lions!
*EDIT: Percy Harvin is out. My pick stays the same, but I feel a lot more confident now that Christian Ponder has nobody to throw to. Let's put 10 in the box!
Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 13
Actual Line: NE by 11
Last time they played, the Bills allowed 45 points. In the second half.
I expect more of the same, especially with the Pats coming off a bye. New England 34-14. I may have missed my prediction on 19-0, but I still like the Pats as my Super Bowl pick. Especially after they just heisted Aqib Talib from the Bucs.
Anytime you can add one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in the league to a terrible secondary and it only costs you a 4th round pick, you have to consider that a win. It's no surprise the Bucs were looking to rid themselves of Talib, who has been suspended multiple times and barely missed a jail sentence for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. But his suspension ends next week, and Bill Belichick may be the only guy who could turn this fool around. If it pans out, they just landed a cornerback who can lockdown Demaryius Thomas or Andre Johnson in the playoffs.
Falcons (8-0) @ Saints (3-5)
Predicted Line: ATL by 5
Actual Line: ATL by 3
A lot of people are trying to be cute with this pick, but the Saints are too much of a mess on D, and Matt Ryan has simply outplayed Drew Brees all season. Also, Darren Sproles is out, which significantly changes the Saints' offensive identity. Falcons 35-23.
Chargers (4-4) @ Bucs (4-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 2
Actual Line: TB by 3
Does anyone else remember the NFL Draft, when Doug Martin and David Wilson were considered nearly identical prospects? Same size, same speed, same college stats. I could never remember which was which. Martin was picked 31st by Tampa Bay, Wilson went 32nd to the Giants.
Fast forward 8 months, and David Wilson has 17 carries, 1 catch, 91 total yards, 1 TD, and 1 fumble in his NFL career. He's been demoted to 3rd string.
Martin put up 25 carries, 4 catches, 272 total yards, and 4 TDs last week alone, in one of the single greatest games ever by a running back. He's over 1,000 total yards this season, he's become an elite fantasy back, he hasn't fumbled once in 174 touches, and he would be Rookie of the Year if not for those pesky quarterbacks...
So in other words, it looks like Tampa made the right pick at #31.
Sidenote: Martin's nickname is The Muscle Hamster, which might be the dumbest nickname I've ever seen. Even Martin hates it. But I'm taking the Bucs and the Hamster Momentum. Plus, the Chargers are falling apart, and I hate Phillip Rivers. Tampa 21-16.
Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 4
Denver is on a roll, but I actually like the points. They call him Backdoor Cam for a reason. Broncos 33-31.
Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 12
Actual Line: BAL by 9
No McFadden in this game, and Oakland stinks on the East Coast. I still don't love the Ravens with Webb and Lewis out, but they should be able to cover. Baltimore 27-14.
Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5
Actual Line: SEA by 6
The Jets are almost as unpredictable as they are annoying. 6 points seems too many for a rookie QB, although this could easily be a shutout. I have no idea. Let's say Seahawks by 3.
Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2
Actual Line: DAL by 1.5
This might be the most hype and media attention ever given to a game between 3-5 teams. I think the Cowboys are less of a mess right now, and the Eagles don't have an answer to DeMarcus Ware. But this is definitely in the coin flip category. I'll take the home team to be safe. Philly by a field goal.
Rams (3-5) @ 49ers (6-2)
Predicted Line: SF by 11.5
Actual Line: SF by 11.5
Despite the 3-5 record, I actually think Jeff Fisher would be my choice for Coach of the Year through 9 weeks. The Rams should have beat the Lions and should have beat Miami, and they nearly beat Green Bay. They could easily be 5-3. And from a talent standpoint, they should be 0-8. Fisher has done more with less than any other coach. Except for the beatdown in London against the Pats, St. Louis has been competitive in every game. Also, they get Danny Amendola back in this game. So all that to say, I'll take the points. Niners 26-18.
Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 2
Actual Line: CHI by 1
After this beatdown, people are going to be saying "How the heck were the Bears 7-1?"
The answer: a super easy schedule, a lucky-ass win against Carolina, a game against Detroit in which Detroit didn't show up, and a whole bunch of defensive touchdowns.
I like Houston 34-3. Let's hope either Cutler or Forte gets hurt so the Bears can miss the playoffs again.
Chiefs (1-7) @ Steelers (5-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 13.5
Actual Line: PIT by 12.5
No Antonio Brown, no Mendenhall/Dwyer, no Polamalu. Does it matter? Brown has underachieved, Isaac Redman is running the ball just fine, and for the first time ever, the Steelers secondary is thriving without the furry Polynesian. Roethlisberger is playing his best football in a long time and the offensive line has gone from terrible to very solid, while the defense has quietly been the best in the league, despite playing against some pretty good offenses. So does that mean I'm laying the points? Against Matt Cassel, who leads the NFL in turnovers? I sure am. Steelers 27-10.
Mehmet Okur retired today. 10 years in the NBA. Turkish Tornado. What a guy.
Go Lions.
68-62-5 ATS on the season and 78-54 straight up. Finally above .500.
Also, the Lions played their best game of the season by far, granted against a horrendous opponent. But a blowout win on the road is a blowout win on the road, and coupled with losses by Minnesota, Arizona and the entire NFC East, I'll take it. The Wildcard is within striking distance -- however, we pretty much need to beat the Packers twice to have any hope for the playoffs. That, or the Bears need to lose about 5 in a row.
Here are my week 10 picks:
Colts (5-3) @ Jaguars (1-7) - Thursday night
Predicted Line: IND by 2
Actual Line: IND by 3.5
With Jones-Drew out, the Jags are pretty much an NCAA team, especially on offense. Why does Justin Blackmon suck so much? Receivers taken in the top 10 are supposed to be gamechangers, not pedestrians.
They still have a solid defense against the run (not last week, but usually), but as we saw last week, Indy doesn't need to run. They are currently tied for 4th in the NFL in passing attempts. If they stick to the same gameplan they used against Miami (24 runs, 48 passes), they'll win this game big. Andrew Luck just set the record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie (433), so he should have some momentum going.
There are some pretty decent trends that would lead me to choose Jacksonville ... homedogs rarely lose ATS two weeks in a row, and home teams tend to cover on Thursdays, and there's a good chance I'm going to want those 3 points given the fact that every Thursday game has been nothing but field goals. However, I'm going with Andrew Luck once again, and saying the Colts win their 4th straight game, 27-16.
*In fact, as a testament to my faith in Luck, I just dropped Phillip Rivers, leaving Luck as my only fantasy QB. Which probably doesn't matter, considering my team is 1-8. But still.
Giants (6-3) @ Bengals (3-5)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4
Actual Line: NYG by 4.5
Remember when Cincy was 3-1 with an easy schedule coming up? Now they're about to be 3-6. Yikes. Giants, the best road team in the league, win by 14. Eli Manning, by the way, has a mere 8 fantasy points in his last two games. I'm thinking he'll top that within 5 minutes of this game, and end up scoring 30+ for all the goofballs who bench him.
Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3.5
Actual Line: MIA by 6
Don't like laying 6 points with Ryan Tannehill and a bunch of bad receivers, but I don't see the Titans scoring more than 10 or 13 against Miami's tough defense. Maybe a big game for Reggie Bush. Fins 23-6.
*EDIT: I'm thinking Jake Locker's return might provide a boost for the Titans. If nothing else, he can keep plays alive with his feet. I still want Miami, but not I'll say the Titans cover and keep it close.
Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (5-4)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 1
I'm pretty impressed with the Lions two game winning streak. The Vikings, on the other hand, have lost two straight, neither of which were to great teams. While Adrian Peterson is rushing for 8.3 yards per carry over his past 3 games (!!!), Christian Ponder has very surprisingly declined, and declined at an alarming rate.
Here are Ponder's QB ratings in order this season: 105, 114, 94, 71, 87, 83, 35, 74, 37.
His completion percentage has plummeted, he threw for less than 70 yards in two of his last three games, and Vikings fans are starting to beg for Joe Webb.
I can't decide if the Lions are catching the Vikings at the perfect time, or if Ponder is just in a mini-slump and Detroit will go into the game overly confident and end up playing like crap on both sides of the ball, kind of like they did the first 4 weeks of the season.
Chances are, with the way AP is running the ball, Detroit won't have a repeat of last week where they go up early and never feel threatened. Most likely, Minnesota goes up 14-3 early thanks to Detroit's lack of urgency on offense and overpursuit on defense plus a special teams TD, then it's 17-10 at halftime, and Detroit spends the whole 3rd quarter trying to get Leshoure going to no avail, before finally going to Calvin in the 4th and pulling out an improbable 27-24 win with 5 seconds left. That seems to be the Schwartz and Linehan gameplan. Blowing this game could cost be troublesome for Ponder and Frazier, in terms of keeping their jobs. It'll also give Detroit some serious hopes at reclaiming their shot at the playoffs. Go Lions!
*EDIT: Percy Harvin is out. My pick stays the same, but I feel a lot more confident now that Christian Ponder has nobody to throw to. Let's put 10 in the box!
Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 13
Actual Line: NE by 11
Last time they played, the Bills allowed 45 points. In the second half.
I expect more of the same, especially with the Pats coming off a bye. New England 34-14. I may have missed my prediction on 19-0, but I still like the Pats as my Super Bowl pick. Especially after they just heisted Aqib Talib from the Bucs.
Anytime you can add one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in the league to a terrible secondary and it only costs you a 4th round pick, you have to consider that a win. It's no surprise the Bucs were looking to rid themselves of Talib, who has been suspended multiple times and barely missed a jail sentence for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. But his suspension ends next week, and Bill Belichick may be the only guy who could turn this fool around. If it pans out, they just landed a cornerback who can lockdown Demaryius Thomas or Andre Johnson in the playoffs.
Falcons (8-0) @ Saints (3-5)
Predicted Line: ATL by 5
Actual Line: ATL by 3
A lot of people are trying to be cute with this pick, but the Saints are too much of a mess on D, and Matt Ryan has simply outplayed Drew Brees all season. Also, Darren Sproles is out, which significantly changes the Saints' offensive identity. Falcons 35-23.
Chargers (4-4) @ Bucs (4-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 2
Actual Line: TB by 3
Does anyone else remember the NFL Draft, when Doug Martin and David Wilson were considered nearly identical prospects? Same size, same speed, same college stats. I could never remember which was which. Martin was picked 31st by Tampa Bay, Wilson went 32nd to the Giants.
Fast forward 8 months, and David Wilson has 17 carries, 1 catch, 91 total yards, 1 TD, and 1 fumble in his NFL career. He's been demoted to 3rd string.
Martin put up 25 carries, 4 catches, 272 total yards, and 4 TDs last week alone, in one of the single greatest games ever by a running back. He's over 1,000 total yards this season, he's become an elite fantasy back, he hasn't fumbled once in 174 touches, and he would be Rookie of the Year if not for those pesky quarterbacks...
So in other words, it looks like Tampa made the right pick at #31.
Sidenote: Martin's nickname is The Muscle Hamster, which might be the dumbest nickname I've ever seen. Even Martin hates it. But I'm taking the Bucs and the Hamster Momentum. Plus, the Chargers are falling apart, and I hate Phillip Rivers. Tampa 21-16.
Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 4
Denver is on a roll, but I actually like the points. They call him Backdoor Cam for a reason. Broncos 33-31.
Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 12
Actual Line: BAL by 9
No McFadden in this game, and Oakland stinks on the East Coast. I still don't love the Ravens with Webb and Lewis out, but they should be able to cover. Baltimore 27-14.
Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5
Actual Line: SEA by 6
The Jets are almost as unpredictable as they are annoying. 6 points seems too many for a rookie QB, although this could easily be a shutout. I have no idea. Let's say Seahawks by 3.
Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2
Actual Line: DAL by 1.5
This might be the most hype and media attention ever given to a game between 3-5 teams. I think the Cowboys are less of a mess right now, and the Eagles don't have an answer to DeMarcus Ware. But this is definitely in the coin flip category. I'll take the home team to be safe. Philly by a field goal.
Rams (3-5) @ 49ers (6-2)
Predicted Line: SF by 11.5
Actual Line: SF by 11.5
Despite the 3-5 record, I actually think Jeff Fisher would be my choice for Coach of the Year through 9 weeks. The Rams should have beat the Lions and should have beat Miami, and they nearly beat Green Bay. They could easily be 5-3. And from a talent standpoint, they should be 0-8. Fisher has done more with less than any other coach. Except for the beatdown in London against the Pats, St. Louis has been competitive in every game. Also, they get Danny Amendola back in this game. So all that to say, I'll take the points. Niners 26-18.
Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 2
Actual Line: CHI by 1
After this beatdown, people are going to be saying "How the heck were the Bears 7-1?"
The answer: a super easy schedule, a lucky-ass win against Carolina, a game against Detroit in which Detroit didn't show up, and a whole bunch of defensive touchdowns.
I like Houston 34-3. Let's hope either Cutler or Forte gets hurt so the Bears can miss the playoffs again.
Chiefs (1-7) @ Steelers (5-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 13.5
Actual Line: PIT by 12.5
No Antonio Brown, no Mendenhall/Dwyer, no Polamalu. Does it matter? Brown has underachieved, Isaac Redman is running the ball just fine, and for the first time ever, the Steelers secondary is thriving without the furry Polynesian. Roethlisberger is playing his best football in a long time and the offensive line has gone from terrible to very solid, while the defense has quietly been the best in the league, despite playing against some pretty good offenses. So does that mean I'm laying the points? Against Matt Cassel, who leads the NFL in turnovers? I sure am. Steelers 27-10.
Mehmet Okur retired today. 10 years in the NBA. Turkish Tornado. What a guy.
Go Lions.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Week 9 Picks
Last week there were 7 teams that were favored by 4 points or more. Six of those teams won. Dare I say, the NFL is actually starting to make sense?
With favorites winning outright, and the Pats scoring 45 points, and the Steelers' defense dominating, and Jay Cutler absolutely sucking, it appears things finally are the way they were supposed to be all along. The Cardinals, Rams and Bengals have each lost 3 in a row to drop from the playoff picture, where they never should have been in the first place, while teams like the Packers and Broncos and Colts are climbing, as I thought they would. So all that to say, my 47/53 theory may no longer be true.
I went 7-7 ATS and 8-6 straight up, bringing me to 58-58-4 and 67-51.
Here are the week 9 picks:
Chiefs (1-6) @ Chargers (3-4)
Predicted Line: SD by 4
Actual Line: SD by 8
Here's an amazing stat:
The Chiefs have not had the lead once this season. In their only win, they kicked a field goal in OT. They haven't actually played a down with the lead in 7 games.
What's really amazing is that they have a better roster from top to bottom than half the teams they've played, including San Diego, who shellacked them in week 4. The problem has been a ton of turnovers, thanks mostly to Matt Cassel.
I haven't read anything about this game, don't even know who is playing QB for KC, but I like taking 8 points given how bad the Chargers are playing right now. Bolts 27-23.
Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 2.5
Actual Line: DEN by 4
Peyton Manning is rolling. The Bengals have lost 3 straight. But, Cincy is coming off a bye and is at home ... so should I take the points? Probably not. Broncos 34-27.
Ravens (5-2) @ Browns (2-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7
Actual Line: BAL by 4
Since getting Joe Haden back from suspension, the Browns defense has actually been really decent, giving up an average of just 15 points over the past three weeks. Baltimore, meanwhile, is coming off their worst defeat in many years, losing 43-13 to Houston. The Ravens' defense is banged up and missing some key players, but that won't matter against a Cleveland team that can't move the ball through the air. This line is way too low. Ravens 30-13.
Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 11
I can think of a lot of reasons to take the points ... Arizona's D could force a few turnovers and keep the score low, Peterson could run a punt back for a TD, Fitzgerald could get a garbage-time TD for the backdoor cover ... but then I think about Clay Matthews against that pitiful Cardinals O-line, and I've gotta take the Packers. 24-6.
Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)
Predicted Line: CHI by 4
Actual Line: CHI by 4
I just don't think the Titans have the guys on defense to stop Forte and Marshall, even despite Cutler's erratic throwing and affinity for 1st half turnovers. Seriously, has any QB ever played worse during a 6-1 start? Do you realize that he's not even a top 20 quarterback in any of the important stats: completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs, QB rating... but he is right near the top in INTs and sacks? It's insane that the Bears keep winning. I think they'll get this one too, 34-16. Another bad game for Chris Johnson.
Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 1
Hmm. Miami's defense is stuffing everybody who tries to run the ball, but Indy can't run the ball and they know it, so perhaps Andrew Luck will get his 5th win of the season by foregoing the run and throwing early and often. This is actually a huge game for the AFC Wildcard. I like Indy in a comeback, 26-20.
Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4
Actual Line: WAS by 3.5
Two really lousy defenses against two extremely athletic quarterbacks. We could see an NFL record for combined rushing yards by two QBs in one game. I want to take the points and say Redskins by 3, but I question whether the Panthers will have already quit on the season after four heartbreaking losses in a row, including last week's loss which was the most heartbreaking yet. Carolina was doing a lot of stupid Super Bowl talk back in July and now they probably feel like giving up. So I'll say Washington by 20.
Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)
Predicted Line: DET by 2
Actual Line: DET by 4
If there was ever a time for Detroit to actually build a lead early and keep it throughout the game, this is it. Jacksonville has no chance of stopping Calvin, and the Burleson injury is a blessing in disguise because it allows Titus and Broyles to actually play. Our defense can focus entirely on stopping MJD and let Gabbert throw. That guy is way too inaccurate to make us pay. This should be our first good game of the season. Lions 37-13.
Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 12
Actual Line: HOU by 10.5
I bet Mario Williams feels pretty stupid after this game. Texans 31-16.
Bucs (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 1
With two terrible secondaries, this should be a high-scoring, lots-of-big-plays-through-the-air type of game. I guess I'll take Tampa since they have the better QB.
Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 4.5
I'm taking the Vikings straight-up. I have gut feeling about Adrian Peterson this game.
Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 2.5
Actual Line: NYG by 3.5
Steelers by 6.
Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 6.5
Actual Line: ATL by 4.5
Falcons by 7.
Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 1
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
Eagles by 2.
Go Lions.
With favorites winning outright, and the Pats scoring 45 points, and the Steelers' defense dominating, and Jay Cutler absolutely sucking, it appears things finally are the way they were supposed to be all along. The Cardinals, Rams and Bengals have each lost 3 in a row to drop from the playoff picture, where they never should have been in the first place, while teams like the Packers and Broncos and Colts are climbing, as I thought they would. So all that to say, my 47/53 theory may no longer be true.
I went 7-7 ATS and 8-6 straight up, bringing me to 58-58-4 and 67-51.
Here are the week 9 picks:
Chiefs (1-6) @ Chargers (3-4)
Predicted Line: SD by 4
Actual Line: SD by 8
Here's an amazing stat:
The Chiefs have not had the lead once this season. In their only win, they kicked a field goal in OT. They haven't actually played a down with the lead in 7 games.
What's really amazing is that they have a better roster from top to bottom than half the teams they've played, including San Diego, who shellacked them in week 4. The problem has been a ton of turnovers, thanks mostly to Matt Cassel.
I haven't read anything about this game, don't even know who is playing QB for KC, but I like taking 8 points given how bad the Chargers are playing right now. Bolts 27-23.
Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 2.5
Actual Line: DEN by 4
Peyton Manning is rolling. The Bengals have lost 3 straight. But, Cincy is coming off a bye and is at home ... so should I take the points? Probably not. Broncos 34-27.
Ravens (5-2) @ Browns (2-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7
Actual Line: BAL by 4
Since getting Joe Haden back from suspension, the Browns defense has actually been really decent, giving up an average of just 15 points over the past three weeks. Baltimore, meanwhile, is coming off their worst defeat in many years, losing 43-13 to Houston. The Ravens' defense is banged up and missing some key players, but that won't matter against a Cleveland team that can't move the ball through the air. This line is way too low. Ravens 30-13.
Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 11
I can think of a lot of reasons to take the points ... Arizona's D could force a few turnovers and keep the score low, Peterson could run a punt back for a TD, Fitzgerald could get a garbage-time TD for the backdoor cover ... but then I think about Clay Matthews against that pitiful Cardinals O-line, and I've gotta take the Packers. 24-6.
Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)
Predicted Line: CHI by 4
Actual Line: CHI by 4
I just don't think the Titans have the guys on defense to stop Forte and Marshall, even despite Cutler's erratic throwing and affinity for 1st half turnovers. Seriously, has any QB ever played worse during a 6-1 start? Do you realize that he's not even a top 20 quarterback in any of the important stats: completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs, QB rating... but he is right near the top in INTs and sacks? It's insane that the Bears keep winning. I think they'll get this one too, 34-16. Another bad game for Chris Johnson.
Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 1
Hmm. Miami's defense is stuffing everybody who tries to run the ball, but Indy can't run the ball and they know it, so perhaps Andrew Luck will get his 5th win of the season by foregoing the run and throwing early and often. This is actually a huge game for the AFC Wildcard. I like Indy in a comeback, 26-20.
Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4
Actual Line: WAS by 3.5
Two really lousy defenses against two extremely athletic quarterbacks. We could see an NFL record for combined rushing yards by two QBs in one game. I want to take the points and say Redskins by 3, but I question whether the Panthers will have already quit on the season after four heartbreaking losses in a row, including last week's loss which was the most heartbreaking yet. Carolina was doing a lot of stupid Super Bowl talk back in July and now they probably feel like giving up. So I'll say Washington by 20.
Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)
Predicted Line: DET by 2
Actual Line: DET by 4
If there was ever a time for Detroit to actually build a lead early and keep it throughout the game, this is it. Jacksonville has no chance of stopping Calvin, and the Burleson injury is a blessing in disguise because it allows Titus and Broyles to actually play. Our defense can focus entirely on stopping MJD and let Gabbert throw. That guy is way too inaccurate to make us pay. This should be our first good game of the season. Lions 37-13.
Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 12
Actual Line: HOU by 10.5
I bet Mario Williams feels pretty stupid after this game. Texans 31-16.
Bucs (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 1
With two terrible secondaries, this should be a high-scoring, lots-of-big-plays-through-the-air type of game. I guess I'll take Tampa since they have the better QB.
Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 4.5
I'm taking the Vikings straight-up. I have gut feeling about Adrian Peterson this game.
Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 2.5
Actual Line: NYG by 3.5
Steelers by 6.
Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 6.5
Actual Line: ATL by 4.5
Falcons by 7.
Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 1
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
Eagles by 2.
Go Lions.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Week 8 Picks
Last week:
8-3-2 ATS
10-3 straight up
Season:
51-51-4 ATS
59-45 straight up
Starting to turn things around. Here are the week 8 picks:
Bucs (2-4) @ Vikings (5-2)
Predicted Line: MIN by 6.5
Actual Line: MIN by 7
Another low-scoring Thursday game. I'll take the points, but say Vikes win again, 20-16.
Panthers (1-5) @ Bears (5-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 8
Actual Line: CHI by 9
It's going to take more than a 5-1 start for me to believe in Jay Cutler. Cam Newton is the far better quarterback, and yet he's a 9 point underdog. Yes, the Bears defense is fifty times better than the Panthers defense, and yes these teams have momentum going in opposite directions, but based solely on the talent level and competitiveness of the quarterbacks, I'll take those points. Bears 27-23.
Chargers (3-3) @ Browns (1-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 3
Actual Line: SD by 2.5
I think the Chargers will play like crap, despite coming off a bye. I think Norv Turner is too busy thinking about getting fired to adequately create a gameplan, and I think Rivers is officially past his prime, and I think Ryan Matthews was a terrible 1st round fantasy pick for me and will continue to be so throughout the entire season with his fumbles and lack of speed. Also, the Bolts defense is not very good at all, and Trent Richardson might run all over them, and Cleveland has a better homefield advantage than people think. Despite all that, I still think San Diego covers. That's how little confidence I have in Cleveland and Brandon Weeden. Bolts 16-13.
Seahawks (4-3) @ Lions (2-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 1.5
After watching the Tigers completely blow game 1 of the World Series thanks to Verlander's inexplicably unlucky game, I'm too depressed to even think about this game. If Seattle wins, the season is basically over. I would feel a lot better if Detroit were the underdog so they could play off their own self-loathing as they like to do. But I digress ...
The Lions' squad is full of obvious deficiencies, but we expected this going into the year. We knew the secondary would be awful and we knew the running game would struggle. Most of the players have done what we expected. Nonetheless, they are only a few plays away from being 4-2 or 5-1.
In my opinion, only two players have massively underperformed, and those players are Stafford and Suh. Both should be elite players at their positions, based on their draft position and how they've played the last 2 seasons. But both are liabilities. Suh generates more penalties than sacks, and more bad PR than good plays on the field. Even when he gets a sack, he has to bend the guy backwards over his knee and slam his head to the grass, which wasn't necessary and just reinforces the notion that Suh is a villain.
And Stafford continues to impersonate Joey Harrington with his complete lack of urgency on third downs, his inaccuracy on short passes, and his utter failure to recognize and navigate a pass rush. The offensive line is getting blamed by people who don't know anything about football. It's not Backus or Raiola's fault that Stafford can't step up in the pocket, move his feet, and deliver the ball quickly. Scouts always talk about quarterback's footwork. Peyton Manning is known for his footwork more than anything else. Have you ever watched Drew Brees play? What percent of plays does he physically step forward to evade the pass rush, and buy himself 2 seconds to throw? 90%? How many times has Stafford done that through 6 games? Once? Maybe twice?
Last season, Stafford was doing the little things that successful QBs do. Stepping up in the pocket, looking off the safety, buying time with his feet, and throwing "catchable" balls that weren't just accurate, but hit the receiver perfectly in the hands. This year, he's doing none of those things. It's unexplainable. Nothing has changed, other than adding Ryan Broyles and Riley Reiff and another year of offseason experience. The only possible explanations are:
1) He spent the offseason partying, drinking, and being a frat boy like Matt Leinart, instead of watching film and working out like any of the elite quarterbacks who actually try to earn their colossal contracts.
2) The Madden Curse is manifesting itself in Calvin's quarterback.
I'm leaning towards #1 as the reason why Stafford sucks this year. And unfortunately I don't think he will get much better as the year goes on. I think we've seen a big enough sample size to say that Stafford has declined. In 6 games, he's only had a QB rating above 80 one time. That's downright awful. It's his rookie year all over again.
This should be another game that comes down to the final 30 seconds or so, as all Detroit contests do, and I think it's time for things to bounce Detroit's way. Lions 27-26 on a last second play. Why not.
Jaguars (1-5) @ Packers (4-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 15
Nothing in the NFL makes enough sense this year for me to lay 15 points. Could happen, probably should happen, but there's a real good chance Jacksonville wins by some outrageous score like 12-9. I will say Pack roll but the Jags cover with a late TD. 34-24.
Colts (3-3) @ Titans (3-4)
Predicted Line: TEN by 2.5
Actual Line: TEN by 3.5
In two road games, Indy has been blown out twice, scoring an average of just 15 points. The Titans, on the other hand, got blown out in their first four games (I'm not including that abomination against Detroit as a "game"), but have now won two straight with Matt Hasselbeck. It helps that Chris Johnson decided to play like an actual NFL running back, though it took him 5 weeks, which is the equivalent of about 4 million wasted dollars. It makes sense to like the Titans in this game, but I'm overriding common sense and sticking with my gut, which still says that Andrew Luck is closer to being an elite QB than people think. Colts 23-20.
Patriots (4-3) vs. Rams (3-4) in London
Predicted Line: NE by 12
Actual Line: NE by 7
The only thing I don't like about these London games is that somebody loses a home game. That's a huge disadvantage. I don't have a clue how to remedy that problem, other than: don't play in London, or have a London team. If I had to choose between those options, I'd say don't play in London. We don't need a bunch of Brits telling us how futbol is better than football.
Anyway, Patriots are long overdue for a blow out, and they always play well in London. 38-23.
Dolphins (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 1
Flip a coin. Both teams are stupid. It's tails. Jets -1.
Falcons (6-0) @ Eagles (3-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by 2.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
Apparently, Michael Vick used to play for the Falcons. I might've taken Philly if they were a home underdog, but I sure don't want them as a 3 point favorite, especially a week after they fired their defensive coordinator. I know Andy Reid is 9-0 coming off a bye, but he's probably never faced a team like this year's Falcons in any of those 9 games. This line just makes no sense. Falcons 23-19.
Redskins (3-4) @ Steelers (3-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 4
Nobody wants to bet against RG3 right now, and I'm back in that camp. The Steelers will be without Polamalu again, and they have no healthy running backs, so they probably shouldn't be favored by 4. Heck, I'll say Redskins in a stunner, 34-31.
Raiders (2-4) @ Chiefs (1-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 1
Actual Line: KC by 1
Another important game in the battle for the #1 pick.
Geno Smith, coming off two lousy losses, has possibly fallen behind USC's Matt Barkley for the top pick. It's going to be pretty close anyway. They should be the top two picks, although Kansas State's Collin Klein has been amazing and might come out of nowhere to be the #1 pick if he keeps up this pace.
This game is horrible to think about. Oakland's terrible defense against Brady Quinn ...yuck. I don't even care what happens. I'll just take the home team.
Giants (5-2) @ Cowboys (3-3)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: NYG by 3
I guess DeMarco Murray's injury is the reason this line is so strange. But Dallas doesn't really use him anyway. The NFC East always ends up coming down to week 17, so I can't imagine the Giants running away with it in week 8. Cowboys in a surprising stompdown, 30-13.
Saints (2-4) @ Broncos (3-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 4
Actual Line: DEN by 6
I do like Peyton coming off a bye, but I don't like Drew Brees as a touchdown underdog. Forget everyone else in this game, this is a QB duel and it'll be closer than 6. Broncos by 2.
49ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 7
Way too many points to give a homedog. And how can Alex Smith cover 7 points against a really good defense? I don't feel good about this pick either way, because the Cardinals could easily get shut out, but I will take the points and say Niners 20-16.
That's the week 8 picks. Let's hope the Tigers don't get swept. And go Lions.
8-3-2 ATS
10-3 straight up
Season:
51-51-4 ATS
59-45 straight up
Starting to turn things around. Here are the week 8 picks:
Bucs (2-4) @ Vikings (5-2)
Predicted Line: MIN by 6.5
Actual Line: MIN by 7
Another low-scoring Thursday game. I'll take the points, but say Vikes win again, 20-16.
Panthers (1-5) @ Bears (5-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 8
Actual Line: CHI by 9
It's going to take more than a 5-1 start for me to believe in Jay Cutler. Cam Newton is the far better quarterback, and yet he's a 9 point underdog. Yes, the Bears defense is fifty times better than the Panthers defense, and yes these teams have momentum going in opposite directions, but based solely on the talent level and competitiveness of the quarterbacks, I'll take those points. Bears 27-23.
Chargers (3-3) @ Browns (1-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 3
Actual Line: SD by 2.5
I think the Chargers will play like crap, despite coming off a bye. I think Norv Turner is too busy thinking about getting fired to adequately create a gameplan, and I think Rivers is officially past his prime, and I think Ryan Matthews was a terrible 1st round fantasy pick for me and will continue to be so throughout the entire season with his fumbles and lack of speed. Also, the Bolts defense is not very good at all, and Trent Richardson might run all over them, and Cleveland has a better homefield advantage than people think. Despite all that, I still think San Diego covers. That's how little confidence I have in Cleveland and Brandon Weeden. Bolts 16-13.
Seahawks (4-3) @ Lions (2-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 1.5
After watching the Tigers completely blow game 1 of the World Series thanks to Verlander's inexplicably unlucky game, I'm too depressed to even think about this game. If Seattle wins, the season is basically over. I would feel a lot better if Detroit were the underdog so they could play off their own self-loathing as they like to do. But I digress ...
The Lions' squad is full of obvious deficiencies, but we expected this going into the year. We knew the secondary would be awful and we knew the running game would struggle. Most of the players have done what we expected. Nonetheless, they are only a few plays away from being 4-2 or 5-1.
In my opinion, only two players have massively underperformed, and those players are Stafford and Suh. Both should be elite players at their positions, based on their draft position and how they've played the last 2 seasons. But both are liabilities. Suh generates more penalties than sacks, and more bad PR than good plays on the field. Even when he gets a sack, he has to bend the guy backwards over his knee and slam his head to the grass, which wasn't necessary and just reinforces the notion that Suh is a villain.
And Stafford continues to impersonate Joey Harrington with his complete lack of urgency on third downs, his inaccuracy on short passes, and his utter failure to recognize and navigate a pass rush. The offensive line is getting blamed by people who don't know anything about football. It's not Backus or Raiola's fault that Stafford can't step up in the pocket, move his feet, and deliver the ball quickly. Scouts always talk about quarterback's footwork. Peyton Manning is known for his footwork more than anything else. Have you ever watched Drew Brees play? What percent of plays does he physically step forward to evade the pass rush, and buy himself 2 seconds to throw? 90%? How many times has Stafford done that through 6 games? Once? Maybe twice?
Last season, Stafford was doing the little things that successful QBs do. Stepping up in the pocket, looking off the safety, buying time with his feet, and throwing "catchable" balls that weren't just accurate, but hit the receiver perfectly in the hands. This year, he's doing none of those things. It's unexplainable. Nothing has changed, other than adding Ryan Broyles and Riley Reiff and another year of offseason experience. The only possible explanations are:
1) He spent the offseason partying, drinking, and being a frat boy like Matt Leinart, instead of watching film and working out like any of the elite quarterbacks who actually try to earn their colossal contracts.
2) The Madden Curse is manifesting itself in Calvin's quarterback.
I'm leaning towards #1 as the reason why Stafford sucks this year. And unfortunately I don't think he will get much better as the year goes on. I think we've seen a big enough sample size to say that Stafford has declined. In 6 games, he's only had a QB rating above 80 one time. That's downright awful. It's his rookie year all over again.
This should be another game that comes down to the final 30 seconds or so, as all Detroit contests do, and I think it's time for things to bounce Detroit's way. Lions 27-26 on a last second play. Why not.
Jaguars (1-5) @ Packers (4-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 15
Nothing in the NFL makes enough sense this year for me to lay 15 points. Could happen, probably should happen, but there's a real good chance Jacksonville wins by some outrageous score like 12-9. I will say Pack roll but the Jags cover with a late TD. 34-24.
Colts (3-3) @ Titans (3-4)
Predicted Line: TEN by 2.5
Actual Line: TEN by 3.5
In two road games, Indy has been blown out twice, scoring an average of just 15 points. The Titans, on the other hand, got blown out in their first four games (I'm not including that abomination against Detroit as a "game"), but have now won two straight with Matt Hasselbeck. It helps that Chris Johnson decided to play like an actual NFL running back, though it took him 5 weeks, which is the equivalent of about 4 million wasted dollars. It makes sense to like the Titans in this game, but I'm overriding common sense and sticking with my gut, which still says that Andrew Luck is closer to being an elite QB than people think. Colts 23-20.
Patriots (4-3) vs. Rams (3-4) in London
Predicted Line: NE by 12
Actual Line: NE by 7
The only thing I don't like about these London games is that somebody loses a home game. That's a huge disadvantage. I don't have a clue how to remedy that problem, other than: don't play in London, or have a London team. If I had to choose between those options, I'd say don't play in London. We don't need a bunch of Brits telling us how futbol is better than football.
Anyway, Patriots are long overdue for a blow out, and they always play well in London. 38-23.
Dolphins (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 1
Flip a coin. Both teams are stupid. It's tails. Jets -1.
Falcons (6-0) @ Eagles (3-3)
Predicted Line: ATL by 2.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
Apparently, Michael Vick used to play for the Falcons. I might've taken Philly if they were a home underdog, but I sure don't want them as a 3 point favorite, especially a week after they fired their defensive coordinator. I know Andy Reid is 9-0 coming off a bye, but he's probably never faced a team like this year's Falcons in any of those 9 games. This line just makes no sense. Falcons 23-19.
Redskins (3-4) @ Steelers (3-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 4
Nobody wants to bet against RG3 right now, and I'm back in that camp. The Steelers will be without Polamalu again, and they have no healthy running backs, so they probably shouldn't be favored by 4. Heck, I'll say Redskins in a stunner, 34-31.
Raiders (2-4) @ Chiefs (1-5)
Predicted Line: KC by 1
Actual Line: KC by 1
Another important game in the battle for the #1 pick.
Geno Smith, coming off two lousy losses, has possibly fallen behind USC's Matt Barkley for the top pick. It's going to be pretty close anyway. They should be the top two picks, although Kansas State's Collin Klein has been amazing and might come out of nowhere to be the #1 pick if he keeps up this pace.
This game is horrible to think about. Oakland's terrible defense against Brady Quinn ...yuck. I don't even care what happens. I'll just take the home team.
Giants (5-2) @ Cowboys (3-3)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: NYG by 3
I guess DeMarco Murray's injury is the reason this line is so strange. But Dallas doesn't really use him anyway. The NFC East always ends up coming down to week 17, so I can't imagine the Giants running away with it in week 8. Cowboys in a surprising stompdown, 30-13.
Saints (2-4) @ Broncos (3-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 4
Actual Line: DEN by 6
I do like Peyton coming off a bye, but I don't like Drew Brees as a touchdown underdog. Forget everyone else in this game, this is a QB duel and it'll be closer than 6. Broncos by 2.
49ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 7
Way too many points to give a homedog. And how can Alex Smith cover 7 points against a really good defense? I don't feel good about this pick either way, because the Cardinals could easily get shut out, but I will take the points and say Niners 20-16.
That's the week 8 picks. Let's hope the Tigers don't get swept. And go Lions.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
World Series Preview
Great week of football picks: 8-3-2 against the spread, 10-3 straight up. Now right at .500 for the year, at 51-51-4, and 59-45 straight up. Things are starting to make sense. Maybe. One thing is for sure: Matthew Stafford is terrible. I can't believe how much I dislike that guy right now.
Instead of my usual picks, I'm going to talk about the World Series, which starts tomorrow.
The Giants came back from an improbable 3-1 deficit and now face the Tigers, who underachieved as much as any team in the MLB during the regular season, but somehow ended up stomping the obnoxious Yankees in the ALCS. It's easy to forget that if Coco Crisp didn't drop a fly ball, the Tigers would have eliminated in 4 games in the first round. It's also easy to forget the struggles of Peralta and Delmon Young, who both were fantastic in the playoffs but terrible in the regular season. Young improved from .267 to .294 and Peralta went up from .239 to .343. I don't know why Delmon Young waited 165 games to show patience at the plate and take bad pitches, but he's doing it now and it's one of the biggest reasons why Detroit is the favorites to win it all.
Because of the days off, the Tigers have their starting rotation set just the way they want it, while San Francisco has to pitch whoever is available.
Game one pits the best pitcher in the world against Barry Zito, the 34 year old Giants lefty who won the Cy Young way back in 2002. Zito was one of the best pitchers in the league from '01 to '03, but has steadily declined since, and this year was downright awful against right handed batters, giving up a .355 average and 18 homers. All season, Detroit's hitters have struggled against righties and killed lefties, so this is a perfect matchup for game 1. Verlander has plenty of rest and has been focused on dominating the World Series since April, so he'll be zooming through at least 8 innings and giving up at most 2 runs, probably fewer.
The Giants' lineup is loaded with singles hitters, which is why they were 3rd in the NL in average but only 8th in slugging percentage. They are quite average in drawing walks, average in stolen bases, and average in runs scored. They don't excel in anything, but they certainly aren't bad offensively in any way.
By far, their best offensive player is Buster Posey, the best catcher in baseball. In fact, Posey led the NL in batting average (.336) and was super consistent, hitting above .300 in five of six months this season. (Posey is also a huge reason why my fantasy baseball team won the championship).
The rest of their lineup is pretty average, with stud outfielder Melky Cabrera suspended since August. Second basemen Marco Scutaro is a solid .300 hitter with no power, but he's currently on a 10 game hitting streak in the playoffs. Outfielder Hunter Pence is a good player (.285 career average with lots of power and tons of RBI), but since being traded to San Fran in August he is hitting only .219. Then there's speedy Angel Pagan, a .288 hitter with almost 30 steals. And Pablo Sandoval is a stocky 3rd basemen with some power and a solid average. It's not an overpowering offense, but it's no slouch.
The Giants' pitching staff is much more imposing than their offense, much like Detroit. Ace Matt Cain (who will pitch game 4 against Max) is one of the best pitchers in the business, and Ryan Vogelsong (game 3 against Sanchez) is a definite stud. Then there's Madison Bumgarner, who pitches against Fister in game 2 in what should be the best pitching matchup of the series. As far as bullpens, San Fran's is excellent (fewest blown saves in the NL, anchored by 2 great relivers in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. Detroit's bullpen is erratic at best. Coke and Albuquerque have been solid in the playoffs, Benoit was good in the regular season, and Smyly and Dotel are decent but not dominant. If Leyland pitches Valverde in the 9th inning, which I highly suspect he will, it will be an indication that Leyland values stupidity over winning, but we already know that to be true. However, I do think the Potato closes 1 or 2 games without giving up a run. Just getting by on luck and defense, as he's done before.
To be honest, I still can't believe the Tigers made the World Series, with the hideous regular season they suffered through. But right now, our starting pitching is unbelievable, and the offense is doing just enough. Here is my World Series prediction:
Game One - Verlander dominates - 8 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, Ks. Tigers win 5-2.
Game Two - Fister and Bumgarner duel, it's 2-2 going into the 8th, and Detroit gets the clutch hit and the 3-2 win.
Game Three - Vogelsong stymies the Detroit offense, but Sanchez holds his own and Detroit somehow sneaks away with another close win.
Game Four - Cain keeps the Giants from being swept. Scherzer bombs. Giants 8-2.
Game Five - Verlander slams the door, complete game shutout, and wins the World Series MVP.
Tigers in 5.
Instead of my usual picks, I'm going to talk about the World Series, which starts tomorrow.
The Giants came back from an improbable 3-1 deficit and now face the Tigers, who underachieved as much as any team in the MLB during the regular season, but somehow ended up stomping the obnoxious Yankees in the ALCS. It's easy to forget that if Coco Crisp didn't drop a fly ball, the Tigers would have eliminated in 4 games in the first round. It's also easy to forget the struggles of Peralta and Delmon Young, who both were fantastic in the playoffs but terrible in the regular season. Young improved from .267 to .294 and Peralta went up from .239 to .343. I don't know why Delmon Young waited 165 games to show patience at the plate and take bad pitches, but he's doing it now and it's one of the biggest reasons why Detroit is the favorites to win it all.
Because of the days off, the Tigers have their starting rotation set just the way they want it, while San Francisco has to pitch whoever is available.
Game one pits the best pitcher in the world against Barry Zito, the 34 year old Giants lefty who won the Cy Young way back in 2002. Zito was one of the best pitchers in the league from '01 to '03, but has steadily declined since, and this year was downright awful against right handed batters, giving up a .355 average and 18 homers. All season, Detroit's hitters have struggled against righties and killed lefties, so this is a perfect matchup for game 1. Verlander has plenty of rest and has been focused on dominating the World Series since April, so he'll be zooming through at least 8 innings and giving up at most 2 runs, probably fewer.
The Giants' lineup is loaded with singles hitters, which is why they were 3rd in the NL in average but only 8th in slugging percentage. They are quite average in drawing walks, average in stolen bases, and average in runs scored. They don't excel in anything, but they certainly aren't bad offensively in any way.
By far, their best offensive player is Buster Posey, the best catcher in baseball. In fact, Posey led the NL in batting average (.336) and was super consistent, hitting above .300 in five of six months this season. (Posey is also a huge reason why my fantasy baseball team won the championship).
The rest of their lineup is pretty average, with stud outfielder Melky Cabrera suspended since August. Second basemen Marco Scutaro is a solid .300 hitter with no power, but he's currently on a 10 game hitting streak in the playoffs. Outfielder Hunter Pence is a good player (.285 career average with lots of power and tons of RBI), but since being traded to San Fran in August he is hitting only .219. Then there's speedy Angel Pagan, a .288 hitter with almost 30 steals. And Pablo Sandoval is a stocky 3rd basemen with some power and a solid average. It's not an overpowering offense, but it's no slouch.
The Giants' pitching staff is much more imposing than their offense, much like Detroit. Ace Matt Cain (who will pitch game 4 against Max) is one of the best pitchers in the business, and Ryan Vogelsong (game 3 against Sanchez) is a definite stud. Then there's Madison Bumgarner, who pitches against Fister in game 2 in what should be the best pitching matchup of the series. As far as bullpens, San Fran's is excellent (fewest blown saves in the NL, anchored by 2 great relivers in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. Detroit's bullpen is erratic at best. Coke and Albuquerque have been solid in the playoffs, Benoit was good in the regular season, and Smyly and Dotel are decent but not dominant. If Leyland pitches Valverde in the 9th inning, which I highly suspect he will, it will be an indication that Leyland values stupidity over winning, but we already know that to be true. However, I do think the Potato closes 1 or 2 games without giving up a run. Just getting by on luck and defense, as he's done before.
To be honest, I still can't believe the Tigers made the World Series, with the hideous regular season they suffered through. But right now, our starting pitching is unbelievable, and the offense is doing just enough. Here is my World Series prediction:
Game One - Verlander dominates - 8 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, Ks. Tigers win 5-2.
Game Two - Fister and Bumgarner duel, it's 2-2 going into the 8th, and Detroit gets the clutch hit and the 3-2 win.
Game Three - Vogelsong stymies the Detroit offense, but Sanchez holds his own and Detroit somehow sneaks away with another close win.
Game Four - Cain keeps the Giants from being swept. Scherzer bombs. Giants 8-2.
Game Five - Verlander slams the door, complete game shutout, and wins the World Series MVP.
Tigers in 5.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 7 Picks
Still not a normal week, but I managed to go 9-5 ATS and 9-5 straight up. I'm now 43-48-2 ATS and 49-42 straight up. My fantasy teams continue to be an abomination, although I couldn't possibly be more unlucky. In the two leagues I care about, I'm 1-5 in each, with the lowest points scored. In the other two leagues I sort of care about, I'm 3-3 in each with pretty good teams. In the 6 other leagues, I'm totally dominating; 5 of the 6 have winning records. The lesson is: the more I overthink it, the worse I do. Example: drafting Phillip Rivers in both the A and B league when I should have trusted my gut and taken the best QB available in the 1st round. Also, I'm the defending champ in both fantasy basketball (draft is tomorrow) and fantasy baseball. Those leagues require a lot more "talent," or at least a lot less luck, so the fact that I'm good at those and not good at fantasy football makes me hate fantasy football even more. I seriously think this might be my last year suffering through fantasy football season.
Why? Because I can't even enjoy the NFL. I'm watching the Lions kick a field goal in overtime to win a game they desperately needed to win, and I can barely celebrate because within the last 30 seconds both Welker and Spiller scored TDs and I just went from trailing by 10 to trailing by 30. Why should I care if CJ Spiller scores? Why should that ruin my day? I just want to quit the whole stupid thing.
Anyway .. the week 7 picks:
Seahawks (4-2) @ 49ers (4-2)
Predicted Line: SF by 6.5
Actual Line: SF by 7
Seattle is the best team in the NFC West at home, and the worst team in the NFC West on the road. After all that dumb trash-talk against Tom Brady, they are due for a crash. Seriously, why is Richard Sherman talking trash to Tom Brady? Sherman has played 20 games in his career ... Brady has played 22 PLAYOFF games and won multiple Super Bowls and is married to a supermodel and is basically the king of America. It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day. Ridiculous.
On the flip side, I am engrossed by watching the Pats lose. I really like the Patriots, they're my second favorite team after Detroit, but when Tom Brady is 3-3 and fighting for a playoff spot, it's riveting entertainment. In fact, the entire AFC East is 3-3. Yes, Miami and New England have the same record. It's like the season hasn't even started yet.
Furthermore, only two teams in the AFC have winning records right now, compared to 7 teams in the NFC. And when the two conferences play head-to-head, the NFC has won 19 of 28 games. So it's safe to say the NFC kicks the AFC's butt.
For this game, I like the Niners but I'll take the points. San Fran 17-12. The Thursday games have been extremely low-scoring; only one team out of 12 has scored more than 24 points, and the average combined score is 37 points, while the average combined score for Sunday games is 52.
*Last note: do you realize that one division currently has 4 of the 5 best defenses in the NFL? And that division is ... the NFC Freaking West. No joke. In terms of points allowed, those teams rank 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th. I can't figure out what to do with that information.
Titans (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3.5
Actual Line: BUF by 3
Speaking of defenses giving up points ... these teams rank 31st and 32th, both allowing upwards of 30 points per game. The Titans have been more consistently bad, giving up 34, 38, 41, 38, 30, and 23 ... while the Bills have allowed a few massive outbursts (52, 48 and 45), but also played three great defensive games (17, 14 and 16) against three bad teams. So the question: does Tennessee qualify as a bad team? My gut says yes. I don't trust Chris Johnson one bit anymore. And I sure don't think the Titans can keep the Bills' fully healthy offense from scoring at least 3 touchdowns. So I'll say Bills 30-23.
Browns (1-5) @ Colts (2-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 3
Huh? The Colts and Browns are considered equal? Andrew Luck is equal to Brandon Weeden? Then why is it that VP Candidate Paul Ryan couldn't tell the difference between Weeden and Colt McCoy?
Speaking of Paul Ryan, I really want to like the guy, but he's making it awfully tough. First, his marathon lie, which really upset me as a runner. (How do you claim to have run it in 6:52 pace when you actually ran it in 9:21 pace. Pretty big difference.) Then, his fake soup kitchen visit, which really upset me as somebody who cares about homeless people. I know all politicians do that kind of stuff, but don't make it so obvious and don't pretend to wash a perfectly clean pot. That was just embarrassing I feel like next he's going to say that he skydived 24 miles, and then when he's caught in that lie, he'll say "Oh, oops, I was thinking of the Demon Drop at Cedar Point....Pretty much the same thing."
Logic tells me to take the Browns, because they have some ideal matchups that will neutralize a few of Indy's best players (Joe Haden covering Reggie Wayne, Joe Thomas on Dwight Freeney). Also Cleveland can run the ball better, and has better linebackers. But at home, with a QB that I'm convinced is less than a year from being elite, Indy should be able to move the ball using Fleener, Avery, Hilton, and maybe a few big running plays for Luck. Plus, I'm still convinced that Brandon Weeden is awful. Colts 27-22.
Packers (3-3) @ Rams (3-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 6
If there's any sense left in the world, the Packers will win big. I'm not even going to consider that anything else could happen. Packers 38-17.
Cardinals (4-2) @ Vikings (4-2)
Predicted Line: MIN by 3.5
Actual Line: MIN by 6
Remember when Arizona was 4-0 and everybody (including me) said "Watch out for Arizona!" I pointed out that their schedule was about to get easy and they could win 3 straight. Or..... they could lose to St. Louis and Buffalo, scoring 19 points combined in those games. No running game, worst offensive line in the league, Kevin Kolb .... why are we surprised? Minnesota, on the other hand, is the team that nobody really wants to see right now. Harvin is playing his best football ever, Christian Ponder looks almost Manning-esque (I said almost) with his intelligence and ability to out-think the defense, and AP looks like AP. They are by no means a juggernaut, and I'm still not sure they should be favored by 6, but looking at their schedule, they are probably going to be 7-3 before their brutal stretch of games comes. I don't like giving 6 points with the Vikings, but I don't know that Arizona's offense can score at all. Vikes 23-6.
*Sidenote: Back in May I ranked the 32 best QBs in the league. Those rankings look idiotic now (you can take RG3 at 25 and Stafford at 5 and flip them, and you can move Matt Ryan up from 12 to 3, for starters), but using that list for lack of a better list, the Vikings have only played against 1 quarterback who is a top 15 guy (Stafford, who totally sucks this year) and they won't see another top 15 guy until they've played 5 more games, and they'll only see 2 top 10 QBs all year. So in other words, they don't have to play Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Ryan, Cam, Rivers, Ben, Romo or Flacco this season. Talk about a lucky schedule. The only elite QBs they'll face will be Rodgers andStafford
Redskins (3-3) @ Giants (4-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4.5
Actual Line: NYG by 6
Among the many reasons why this is the weirdest NFL season ever, there's this: Alfred Morris and Steven Ridley are both top five in carries. Those are, of course, Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick's running backs. Last few years, Shanahan didn't even keep a RB on his roster longer than a month. In 2011, it was Hightower, then Torain, then Helu, then Royster. In 2010, it was Portis, then Torain, then Keiland Williams, then some guy named James Davis. In 2009, it was Portis, Betts, Cartwright, and the mysterious Quinton Ganther. That was 11 different starting running backs in 3 years. Now, all of a sudden, 6th round pick Alfred Morris has more carries than McCoy or Rice or pretty much anybody, and no one else on Washington is relevant. What happened to Shanahan's long-lasting "I hate fantasy football" approach?!?!?!
And don't even get me started on New England. Ridley is running the ball an average of 19.6 times this year, more than even Alfred Morris. Last year, when they had a solid RB in Green-Ellis, he got only 11 carries per game, because Belichick had to throw in Ridley/Woodhead/Faulk/Vereen randomly, just to infuriate fantasy owners. In the years before that, Fred Taylor, Sammie Morris, Lawrence Maroney, and 45 other guys shared the backfield, and just when you thought your guy might get a TD, he would put in Richard Seymour or Steven Gostkowski to run the TD.
Now, Morris and RG3 are two of the most effective runners in the league, and the worst coach in the NFL is suddenly a genius again. I've gotta take the points in this game, because the Giants sleepwalk at home and destroy people on the road. Plus, did you see RG3's 76 yard run last week? How can you pick against that guy for at least a backdoor cover? G-men 34-31.
Saints (1-4) @ Bucs (2-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3
Are the Saints going to rebound from 0-4 and make the playoffs? After this, they should be 2-4, and I actually don't hate their chances. They would have to beat some tough teams and win some tough road games, but Drew Brees can outscore anybody and he plays well on the road. I'm a little excited to see if they can reel off 6 or 7 wins in a row. They'll win this one easily. Tampa is great against the run, and awful against the pass. That makes for a big game for Brees, and despite the Saints' defense, New Orleans just outscores them, 41-27.
Cowboys (2-3) @ Panthers (1-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 1
Actual Line: DAL by 2
Each team's strength against the other's weakness. Carolina will run all over Dallas and avoid obvious passing downs, because a well-kept secret is that Dallas has the #1 ranked pass defense. Meanwhile, with DeMarco injured Dallas will keep the ball in the air and pick apart Carolina's sad secondary. At least that's what they should do. But there's a pretty good chance that Jason Garrett wants to "establish the run" with Felix Jones, which didn't work in 2009, 2010, or 2011, so naturally it will work fabulously in 2012. My gut is telling me that Dallas is too dumb to win this game on the road. Carolina 26-23 in OT.
Ravens (5-1) @ Texans (5-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 7
Ray Lewis - out for the year. Lardarius Webb - out for the year. Terrell Suggs - supposed to be out for the year, but supposedly returning this week. But there's no way Suggs will be 100% healthy. And without Webb, the Ravens secondary becomes much, much worse. If Andre Johnson were still alive, I'd say Houston would pass all over them.
Houston, meanwhile, also lost their stud middle linebacker (Cushing) for the year, but they've still got defensive-MVP-in-the-making J.J. Watt anchoring a very dominant defense.
As I said earlier, there are only two teams in the AFC with winning records. How fitting that they play each other. I like Houston, but I can't figure out how they're 7 point favorites over a team as good as Baltimore. I'll take the points and say Texans 24-20.
Jaguars (1-4) @ Raiders (1-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 4
This could be a big game in deciding the eventual #1 overall pick. The Browns will be in contention too, and maybe the Chiefs. The two worst records in the NFC are currently the Saints and Panthers, and I expect both teams to rebound and get a pick outside of the top 5. I don't know who will plummet from the NFC and end up picking in the top 5 (maybe Detroit, I hate to say it), but it's also possible that the top 5 picks will all be AFC teams. Of those, most will have QBs that are either expensive or very young (Palmer, Weeden, Gabbert) but that won't stop them from picking a new franchise QB. In fact, Cleveland just released GM Mike Holmgren (who, let's be honest, did a horrendous job with the Browns), and that probably signifies the end of the Weeden Era already. New GMs like new QBs.
The 2013 NFL draft has seen an interesting shakeup, as Geno Smith has replaced Matt Barkley as the likely #1 pick and the Heisman favorite. Barkley will likely go #2, and then there should be a few QBs in the mid-to-late 1st round (Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray, maybe Landry Jones). Geno has basically followed in the footsteps of Cam Newton and RG3 and come out of nowhere, and he appears to be the real deal, just as they were. He's super fast, he can throw a deep ball with accuracy, and he's humble and smart. I watched enough Youtube videos of him to hope Matt Stafford suffers a career ending injury and the Lions somehow get Geno.
Speaking of Stafford, how many weeks until I can legitimately start saying I would rather see Shaun Hill play? Does Stafford realize that the first 3 quarters count towards the final score? Have you ever seen a quarterback play with less urgency on 3rd downs? Yes, only once. His name was Joseph Harrington.
I like Jacksonville to pull the upset and Oakland to inch closer to Geno Smith.
Jets (3-3) @ Patriots (3-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 11
These teams having the same record makes me irate. If the Revis-less Jets win, I will never speak a word about football for the rest of my life. And yet, I'm reminded of my 53/47 discovery from last week, and I'm scared to base my pick on what I used to think was true. Might as well just take the 11 points, because the Jets have a 47% chance of winning straight up. What a dumb year. Pats 28-27.
Steelers (2-3) @ Bengals (3-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2.5
Actual Line: PIT by 1.5
Another instance where the better team does not have the better record. How annoying. Speaking of annoying, here are a couple of QB related stats that summarize how dumb this season is:
-Aaron Rodgers has the best QB rating in the NFL. Yet, the Pack are 3-3 and considered super disappointing.
-Andy Dalton has more TD passes than Tom Brady.
-RG3 and Stafford COMBINED have thrown for 9 TDs, fewer than 10 other QBs.
This year is dumb. The Steelers are a much better team, but I don't trust them at all. But the spread is so low, so I'm taking the bait. PIT by 3.
Lions (2-3) @ Bears (4-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 6.5
Actual Line: CHI by 6
This will literally make or break Detroit's season. Our next three games after this are super winnable, so a win here could help us get up to 5-4 before we meet the Packers and Texans in consecutive weeks.
But a loss here puts us at 2-4 and completely deflates us, and means best case scenario is 4-5 (but probably 3-6 because most of the team will quit because the team has no leadership) as we head into the brutal part of the schedule. If we lose this game, we'll very likely be 3-8 on Black Friday. By that point, Calvin will be hurt, and we'll finish 4-12.
But if we win, not only do we make up some hugely important ground in the division and steal a road game from a good team, but we basically reconcile the inexcusable losses to Tennessee and Minnesota, and we get some momentum.
From Chicago's standpoint, this is basically a chance to eliminate a division foe from the playoffs, not to mention it keeps them 2 games ahead of Green Bay for a potential bye in the playoffs. They won't take us lightly. They, unlike Detroit, have good team leadership.
So, both teams should be pretty ready to play on Monday night. Here's a little bit of analysis for the game ...
Peppers is a matchup nightmare for Backus, as we've seen before, and Chicago is absolutely dominant against the run, despite getting basically nothing from Urlacher, who is playing hurt. If Linehan insists on "establishing the run" once again, might as well turn off the TV early. We need to come out throwing, we need to use the damn double-teams that Calvin demands, rather than putting ourselves in 3rd and 9 situations, so Stafford can check down or throw the ball out of bounds, which he thoroughly enjoys doing. We can't run the ball against bad defenses, so we surely can't run it against good defenses. Let's not waste the first 3 quarters this week.
Detroit's biggest problem offensively has been 3rd downs, especially once we move into scoring position. In each of our last four games, we kicked two successful field goals before getting a TD. Going up 6-0 is pretty freaking worthless, as we saw in the Tennessee game. It's not that we're facing great defenses... we're just playing lazy and stupid on 3rd downs. Stafford is treating 3rd and 5 from the 25 yard line with the urgency of a preseason game. He gives up on the play before the pass rush even gets close to him. He still hasn't stepped up in the pocket once this season, and I haven't seen him even attempt to look off a safety and help a receiver get open. Instead he just wants it to be everybody else's fault for not getting open, and he wants to throw the ball away so the announcers will say "That was actually pretty smart." No, it's not smart to give up on a 3rd down. Don't turn the ball over, but don't give up on the play either. Try to buy some time. To be a great quarterback, you actually have to make great plays. Damn it Stafford, I hate you.
As far as our defense is concerned, Forte will be able to run right past the undisciplined, overpursuing D-line, while Fairley tries to keep up his pace of 1 offsides penalty per quarter. Our secondary is awful against everybody, but if Chris Houston and a safety can keep Marshall covered up, we might be in decent shape. The rest of the Bears receivers are not great. That said, I fully expect Ashlon Jeffrey to catch a 60-yard TD, or two. But maybe, just maybe, we can prevent that from happening. Maybe, for the first time this season, our defense can avoid giving up the big, crushing play. That will literally be the only way we win. (My guess is that the "big play" will be a 75 yard screen pass to Forte.)
I like the prospect of taking Detroit because of the 6 points and the Lions' ability to make games close at the end. But unfortunately, I'm going the other way this week. I just think the Bears have us outmatched almost everywhere. Our 2nd and 3rd best players (Suh and Stafford) are playing like absolute crap, and we're only utilizing our best player in the 4th quarter. I think Chicago can get TDs and run the ball down our throat, and I think we keep Jason Hanson busy once again. I think Detroit is down 27-6 at halftime, and the deficit is too big to catch up in our panicked 4th quarter. Bears win 44-27. Ugh, I hope I'm wrong.
Go Lions.
Why? Because I can't even enjoy the NFL. I'm watching the Lions kick a field goal in overtime to win a game they desperately needed to win, and I can barely celebrate because within the last 30 seconds both Welker and Spiller scored TDs and I just went from trailing by 10 to trailing by 30. Why should I care if CJ Spiller scores? Why should that ruin my day? I just want to quit the whole stupid thing.
Anyway .. the week 7 picks:
Seahawks (4-2) @ 49ers (4-2)
Predicted Line: SF by 6.5
Actual Line: SF by 7
Seattle is the best team in the NFC West at home, and the worst team in the NFC West on the road. After all that dumb trash-talk against Tom Brady, they are due for a crash. Seriously, why is Richard Sherman talking trash to Tom Brady? Sherman has played 20 games in his career ... Brady has played 22 PLAYOFF games and won multiple Super Bowls and is married to a supermodel and is basically the king of America. It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day. Ridiculous.
On the flip side, I am engrossed by watching the Pats lose. I really like the Patriots, they're my second favorite team after Detroit, but when Tom Brady is 3-3 and fighting for a playoff spot, it's riveting entertainment. In fact, the entire AFC East is 3-3. Yes, Miami and New England have the same record. It's like the season hasn't even started yet.
Furthermore, only two teams in the AFC have winning records right now, compared to 7 teams in the NFC. And when the two conferences play head-to-head, the NFC has won 19 of 28 games. So it's safe to say the NFC kicks the AFC's butt.
For this game, I like the Niners but I'll take the points. San Fran 17-12. The Thursday games have been extremely low-scoring; only one team out of 12 has scored more than 24 points, and the average combined score is 37 points, while the average combined score for Sunday games is 52.
*Last note: do you realize that one division currently has 4 of the 5 best defenses in the NFL? And that division is ... the NFC Freaking West. No joke. In terms of points allowed, those teams rank 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th. I can't figure out what to do with that information.
Titans (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3.5
Actual Line: BUF by 3
Speaking of defenses giving up points ... these teams rank 31st and 32th, both allowing upwards of 30 points per game. The Titans have been more consistently bad, giving up 34, 38, 41, 38, 30, and 23 ... while the Bills have allowed a few massive outbursts (52, 48 and 45), but also played three great defensive games (17, 14 and 16) against three bad teams. So the question: does Tennessee qualify as a bad team? My gut says yes. I don't trust Chris Johnson one bit anymore. And I sure don't think the Titans can keep the Bills' fully healthy offense from scoring at least 3 touchdowns. So I'll say Bills 30-23.
Browns (1-5) @ Colts (2-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 3
Huh? The Colts and Browns are considered equal? Andrew Luck is equal to Brandon Weeden? Then why is it that VP Candidate Paul Ryan couldn't tell the difference between Weeden and Colt McCoy?
Speaking of Paul Ryan, I really want to like the guy, but he's making it awfully tough. First, his marathon lie, which really upset me as a runner. (How do you claim to have run it in 6:52 pace when you actually ran it in 9:21 pace. Pretty big difference.) Then, his fake soup kitchen visit, which really upset me as somebody who cares about homeless people. I know all politicians do that kind of stuff, but don't make it so obvious and don't pretend to wash a perfectly clean pot. That was just embarrassing I feel like next he's going to say that he skydived 24 miles, and then when he's caught in that lie, he'll say "Oh, oops, I was thinking of the Demon Drop at Cedar Point....Pretty much the same thing."
Logic tells me to take the Browns, because they have some ideal matchups that will neutralize a few of Indy's best players (Joe Haden covering Reggie Wayne, Joe Thomas on Dwight Freeney). Also Cleveland can run the ball better, and has better linebackers. But at home, with a QB that I'm convinced is less than a year from being elite, Indy should be able to move the ball using Fleener, Avery, Hilton, and maybe a few big running plays for Luck. Plus, I'm still convinced that Brandon Weeden is awful. Colts 27-22.
Packers (3-3) @ Rams (3-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 6
If there's any sense left in the world, the Packers will win big. I'm not even going to consider that anything else could happen. Packers 38-17.
Cardinals (4-2) @ Vikings (4-2)
Predicted Line: MIN by 3.5
Actual Line: MIN by 6
Remember when Arizona was 4-0 and everybody (including me) said "Watch out for Arizona!" I pointed out that their schedule was about to get easy and they could win 3 straight. Or..... they could lose to St. Louis and Buffalo, scoring 19 points combined in those games. No running game, worst offensive line in the league, Kevin Kolb .... why are we surprised? Minnesota, on the other hand, is the team that nobody really wants to see right now. Harvin is playing his best football ever, Christian Ponder looks almost Manning-esque (I said almost) with his intelligence and ability to out-think the defense, and AP looks like AP. They are by no means a juggernaut, and I'm still not sure they should be favored by 6, but looking at their schedule, they are probably going to be 7-3 before their brutal stretch of games comes. I don't like giving 6 points with the Vikings, but I don't know that Arizona's offense can score at all. Vikes 23-6.
*Sidenote: Back in May I ranked the 32 best QBs in the league. Those rankings look idiotic now (you can take RG3 at 25 and Stafford at 5 and flip them, and you can move Matt Ryan up from 12 to 3, for starters), but using that list for lack of a better list, the Vikings have only played against 1 quarterback who is a top 15 guy (Stafford, who totally sucks this year) and they won't see another top 15 guy until they've played 5 more games, and they'll only see 2 top 10 QBs all year. So in other words, they don't have to play Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Ryan, Cam, Rivers, Ben, Romo or Flacco this season. Talk about a lucky schedule. The only elite QBs they'll face will be Rodgers and
Redskins (3-3) @ Giants (4-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4.5
Actual Line: NYG by 6
Among the many reasons why this is the weirdest NFL season ever, there's this: Alfred Morris and Steven Ridley are both top five in carries. Those are, of course, Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick's running backs. Last few years, Shanahan didn't even keep a RB on his roster longer than a month. In 2011, it was Hightower, then Torain, then Helu, then Royster. In 2010, it was Portis, then Torain, then Keiland Williams, then some guy named James Davis. In 2009, it was Portis, Betts, Cartwright, and the mysterious Quinton Ganther. That was 11 different starting running backs in 3 years. Now, all of a sudden, 6th round pick Alfred Morris has more carries than McCoy or Rice or pretty much anybody, and no one else on Washington is relevant. What happened to Shanahan's long-lasting "I hate fantasy football" approach?!?!?!
And don't even get me started on New England. Ridley is running the ball an average of 19.6 times this year, more than even Alfred Morris. Last year, when they had a solid RB in Green-Ellis, he got only 11 carries per game, because Belichick had to throw in Ridley/Woodhead/Faulk/Vereen randomly, just to infuriate fantasy owners. In the years before that, Fred Taylor, Sammie Morris, Lawrence Maroney, and 45 other guys shared the backfield, and just when you thought your guy might get a TD, he would put in Richard Seymour or Steven Gostkowski to run the TD.
Now, Morris and RG3 are two of the most effective runners in the league, and the worst coach in the NFL is suddenly a genius again. I've gotta take the points in this game, because the Giants sleepwalk at home and destroy people on the road. Plus, did you see RG3's 76 yard run last week? How can you pick against that guy for at least a backdoor cover? G-men 34-31.
Saints (1-4) @ Bucs (2-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3
Are the Saints going to rebound from 0-4 and make the playoffs? After this, they should be 2-4, and I actually don't hate their chances. They would have to beat some tough teams and win some tough road games, but Drew Brees can outscore anybody and he plays well on the road. I'm a little excited to see if they can reel off 6 or 7 wins in a row. They'll win this one easily. Tampa is great against the run, and awful against the pass. That makes for a big game for Brees, and despite the Saints' defense, New Orleans just outscores them, 41-27.
Cowboys (2-3) @ Panthers (1-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 1
Actual Line: DAL by 2
Each team's strength against the other's weakness. Carolina will run all over Dallas and avoid obvious passing downs, because a well-kept secret is that Dallas has the #1 ranked pass defense. Meanwhile, with DeMarco injured Dallas will keep the ball in the air and pick apart Carolina's sad secondary. At least that's what they should do. But there's a pretty good chance that Jason Garrett wants to "establish the run" with Felix Jones, which didn't work in 2009, 2010, or 2011, so naturally it will work fabulously in 2012. My gut is telling me that Dallas is too dumb to win this game on the road. Carolina 26-23 in OT.
Ravens (5-1) @ Texans (5-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 7
Ray Lewis - out for the year. Lardarius Webb - out for the year. Terrell Suggs - supposed to be out for the year, but supposedly returning this week. But there's no way Suggs will be 100% healthy. And without Webb, the Ravens secondary becomes much, much worse. If Andre Johnson were still alive, I'd say Houston would pass all over them.
Houston, meanwhile, also lost their stud middle linebacker (Cushing) for the year, but they've still got defensive-MVP-in-the-making J.J. Watt anchoring a very dominant defense.
As I said earlier, there are only two teams in the AFC with winning records. How fitting that they play each other. I like Houston, but I can't figure out how they're 7 point favorites over a team as good as Baltimore. I'll take the points and say Texans 24-20.
Jaguars (1-4) @ Raiders (1-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 4
This could be a big game in deciding the eventual #1 overall pick. The Browns will be in contention too, and maybe the Chiefs. The two worst records in the NFC are currently the Saints and Panthers, and I expect both teams to rebound and get a pick outside of the top 5. I don't know who will plummet from the NFC and end up picking in the top 5 (maybe Detroit, I hate to say it), but it's also possible that the top 5 picks will all be AFC teams. Of those, most will have QBs that are either expensive or very young (Palmer, Weeden, Gabbert) but that won't stop them from picking a new franchise QB. In fact, Cleveland just released GM Mike Holmgren (who, let's be honest, did a horrendous job with the Browns), and that probably signifies the end of the Weeden Era already. New GMs like new QBs.
The 2013 NFL draft has seen an interesting shakeup, as Geno Smith has replaced Matt Barkley as the likely #1 pick and the Heisman favorite. Barkley will likely go #2, and then there should be a few QBs in the mid-to-late 1st round (Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray, maybe Landry Jones). Geno has basically followed in the footsteps of Cam Newton and RG3 and come out of nowhere, and he appears to be the real deal, just as they were. He's super fast, he can throw a deep ball with accuracy, and he's humble and smart. I watched enough Youtube videos of him to hope Matt Stafford suffers a career ending injury and the Lions somehow get Geno.
Speaking of Stafford, how many weeks until I can legitimately start saying I would rather see Shaun Hill play? Does Stafford realize that the first 3 quarters count towards the final score? Have you ever seen a quarterback play with less urgency on 3rd downs? Yes, only once. His name was Joseph Harrington.
I like Jacksonville to pull the upset and Oakland to inch closer to Geno Smith.
Jets (3-3) @ Patriots (3-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 11
These teams having the same record makes me irate. If the Revis-less Jets win, I will never speak a word about football for the rest of my life. And yet, I'm reminded of my 53/47 discovery from last week, and I'm scared to base my pick on what I used to think was true. Might as well just take the 11 points, because the Jets have a 47% chance of winning straight up. What a dumb year. Pats 28-27.
Steelers (2-3) @ Bengals (3-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2.5
Actual Line: PIT by 1.5
Another instance where the better team does not have the better record. How annoying. Speaking of annoying, here are a couple of QB related stats that summarize how dumb this season is:
-Aaron Rodgers has the best QB rating in the NFL. Yet, the Pack are 3-3 and considered super disappointing.
-Andy Dalton has more TD passes than Tom Brady.
-RG3 and Stafford COMBINED have thrown for 9 TDs, fewer than 10 other QBs.
This year is dumb. The Steelers are a much better team, but I don't trust them at all. But the spread is so low, so I'm taking the bait. PIT by 3.
Lions (2-3) @ Bears (4-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 6.5
Actual Line: CHI by 6
This will literally make or break Detroit's season. Our next three games after this are super winnable, so a win here could help us get up to 5-4 before we meet the Packers and Texans in consecutive weeks.
But a loss here puts us at 2-4 and completely deflates us, and means best case scenario is 4-5 (but probably 3-6 because most of the team will quit because the team has no leadership) as we head into the brutal part of the schedule. If we lose this game, we'll very likely be 3-8 on Black Friday. By that point, Calvin will be hurt, and we'll finish 4-12.
But if we win, not only do we make up some hugely important ground in the division and steal a road game from a good team, but we basically reconcile the inexcusable losses to Tennessee and Minnesota, and we get some momentum.
From Chicago's standpoint, this is basically a chance to eliminate a division foe from the playoffs, not to mention it keeps them 2 games ahead of Green Bay for a potential bye in the playoffs. They won't take us lightly. They, unlike Detroit, have good team leadership.
So, both teams should be pretty ready to play on Monday night. Here's a little bit of analysis for the game ...
Peppers is a matchup nightmare for Backus, as we've seen before, and Chicago is absolutely dominant against the run, despite getting basically nothing from Urlacher, who is playing hurt. If Linehan insists on "establishing the run" once again, might as well turn off the TV early. We need to come out throwing, we need to use the damn double-teams that Calvin demands, rather than putting ourselves in 3rd and 9 situations, so Stafford can check down or throw the ball out of bounds, which he thoroughly enjoys doing. We can't run the ball against bad defenses, so we surely can't run it against good defenses. Let's not waste the first 3 quarters this week.
Detroit's biggest problem offensively has been 3rd downs, especially once we move into scoring position. In each of our last four games, we kicked two successful field goals before getting a TD. Going up 6-0 is pretty freaking worthless, as we saw in the Tennessee game. It's not that we're facing great defenses... we're just playing lazy and stupid on 3rd downs. Stafford is treating 3rd and 5 from the 25 yard line with the urgency of a preseason game. He gives up on the play before the pass rush even gets close to him. He still hasn't stepped up in the pocket once this season, and I haven't seen him even attempt to look off a safety and help a receiver get open. Instead he just wants it to be everybody else's fault for not getting open, and he wants to throw the ball away so the announcers will say "That was actually pretty smart." No, it's not smart to give up on a 3rd down. Don't turn the ball over, but don't give up on the play either. Try to buy some time. To be a great quarterback, you actually have to make great plays. Damn it Stafford, I hate you.
As far as our defense is concerned, Forte will be able to run right past the undisciplined, overpursuing D-line, while Fairley tries to keep up his pace of 1 offsides penalty per quarter. Our secondary is awful against everybody, but if Chris Houston and a safety can keep Marshall covered up, we might be in decent shape. The rest of the Bears receivers are not great. That said, I fully expect Ashlon Jeffrey to catch a 60-yard TD, or two. But maybe, just maybe, we can prevent that from happening. Maybe, for the first time this season, our defense can avoid giving up the big, crushing play. That will literally be the only way we win. (My guess is that the "big play" will be a 75 yard screen pass to Forte.)
I like the prospect of taking Detroit because of the 6 points and the Lions' ability to make games close at the end. But unfortunately, I'm going the other way this week. I just think the Bears have us outmatched almost everywhere. Our 2nd and 3rd best players (Suh and Stafford) are playing like absolute crap, and we're only utilizing our best player in the 4th quarter. I think Chicago can get TDs and run the ball down our throat, and I think we keep Jason Hanson busy once again. I think Detroit is down 27-6 at halftime, and the deficit is too big to catch up in our panicked 4th quarter. Bears win 44-27. Ugh, I hope I'm wrong.
Go Lions.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Week 6 Picks
6-8 against the spread last week; 9-5 straight up. Now 34-43-2 ATS and 40-37 SU. Probably no hope of finishing above .500 this year. I am dismayed but going to stick to it and see if I can turn it around. But this whole season is stupid and makes no sense.
Here's how I see it: on a scale of 1 to 100, the best teams in the league are about a 53 and the worst teams are about a 47. If Houston plays Cleveland, even though Houston will be favored by 14, the chances of the Browns winning straight up are probably 47%. I know that sounds idiotic, but look at the surprisingly bad seasons for the Packers and Pats and Saints ... what about the Vikings being 4-1... nothing makes sense. I'm done trying to figure it out. I'm just looking at every game as a 50-50 or maybe 53-47 proposition, so might as well take the home teams.
Here's the week 6 picks:
Steelers (2-2) @ Titans (1-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 6.5
Jake Locker is out. So is Polamalu for the Steelers, and probably Lamar Woodley. Rashard Mendenhall made his debut last week (and started for all 4 of my fantasy teams) and ran for 81 yards ... about as many as Chris Johnson has in 5 games. With no Locker and a lethargic CJ, it seems likely that the Titans offense will be unable to move the ball. But with no Polamalu or Woodley, Pittsburgh's defense is pretty average, maybe even subpar. Matt Hasslebeck is a wily veteran who can move the chains in spurts, but CJ will do everything he can to halt Titans' drives and keep up his hideous 1.8 YPC. Whether the Titans offense sucks and scores 3 points, or they play fairly well and score 24, I don't think it'll matter ... Ben Roethlisberger is in a groove, and the Titans D has no playmakers. The combo of Mendenhall, Wallace, Brown and Heath Miller gives Pittsburgh too much firepower. Even on a short week and without their defensive stars, I think the Steelers kick some butt to get to 3-2. I'll say they win 34-20.
Lions (1-3) @ Eagles (3-2)
Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5
Actual Line: PHI by 4
I've picked the Lions every week and they've yet to win against the spread. I'm not doing it again until they play differently. Congrats to DeSean Jackson on returning 6 punts for TDs. That's gotta be a new record.
Eagles 77-14.
Raiders (1-3) @ Falcons (5-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 13.5
Actual Line: ATL by 9
This line is too low. Right? I don't know .... I guess Atlanta's due for a disappointment. I would pick against them if this were any team except Oakland. But I hate Oakland. Especially their defense, which is on pace to be the worst third-down defense ever. Falcons 30-13.
Bengals (3-2) @ Browns (0-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3.5
Actual Line: CIN by 3
So much for Cincy. They lost to Miami, they can't be taken too seriously anymore. Joe Haden comes back for Cleveland, just in time for AJ Green. That matchup will largely determine the game. However, Cleveland could be without stud linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, which would make their run defense nonexistent. I'd like to take Cincy, but this has 13-15 written all over it, so I'll go with the points. Cincy by 2.
Rams (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-3)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: MIA by 3.5
(Flipping coin). Heads it is. Fins +3.5.
Colts (2-2) @ Jets (2-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
Is the Andrew Luck Era officially underway after he led his team past Aaron Rodgers? Was that symbolic of the years to come? I mean, it sure seems like that should be a bigger deal than "What color is Tim Tebow's WWJD bracelet?" I think the Colts are the better team, so I'll take those 3 points. Indy 27-16.
Chiefs (1-4) @ Bucs (1-3)
Predicted Line: TB by 3
Actual Line: TB by 4
Brady Quinn hasn't started a game since 2009. (In fact, his last start was when Jerome Harrison nearly broke the single-game rushing record with 286 yards.) Since then, Quinn spent two years in Denver without ever seeing the field, and now he replaces Matt Cassel, who was concussed last week, much to the delight of Chiefs fans. Not a big Tampa fan this year, but I'm even less of a Brady Quinn fan. Bucs 20-13.
Cowboys (2-2) @ Ravens (4-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6
Actual Line: BAL by 4
My favorite thing was listening to Colin Cowherd try to convince us that Tony Romo's 5 interception game against Chicago wasn't actually a bad game, and that Romo is still one of the elite QBs in the league. That guy can be a real moron when he doesn't want to admit he's wrong. I mean, Romo is okay sometimes, but he threw 5 interceptions for crying out loud! But Cowherd goes off into one of his condescending rants .... "So what if he threw 5 picks ...come on ... 1 was Dez Bryant's fault, 1 time the defender made a great catch, 1 he threw into triple coverage trying to make a play, and 1 was a late-in-the-game desperation throw. Really, if you watched the game, he only threw 1 that was a bad interception. And a 1 interception game isn't that bad because he also had a TD! So, Romo still is elite!! He only threw 1 interception!!! He's like Michael Jordan - sometimes he throws an interception, but he also won 6 championships! Tony Romo won 6 championships! He's elite! Tebow sucks! USC USC USC!!! ahhhhHHHH!!!!"
I like the Ravens. Until Dallas realizes how good DeMarco Murray is they'll continue to lose these tough games. Baltimore 23-17.
Bills (2-3) @ Cardinals (4-1)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5
Actual Line: ARZ by 5
Well so much for Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. Both guys are on IR, so now it's William Powell getting the start. That dude doesn't even have a Wikipedia page, so he must be fairly irrelevant. It's funny to me that he'll probably start for tens of millions of fantasy football teams, and nobody knows what he looks like or anything about him. It's also funny that he'll either run for less than 20 yards or more than 250, with no chance to be in the middle. I like Buffalo to pull the upset here, or at least keep it close. In the midst of their 4-0 start, everyone forgot that the Cardinals have the league's worst O-line. Nine sacks against the Rams and people started to remember. But this line is still inflated because of their fluky start to the season. In fact, I'll say Bills outright, 27-23.
Patriots (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4
(Flip...) Tails it is. Seahawks -4.
Giants (3-2) @ 49ers (4-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 6.5
With as awesome as the Giants are on the road, I'm taking these points gleefully. SF by 2.
Vikings (4-1) @ Redskins (2-3)
Predicted Line: Griffin?
Actual Line: Sounds like RG3 will play, so the line should be WAS by about 3
If RG3 can't play, every indication is that Kirk Cousins has beat out Rex Grossman for the backup role. That would be awesome to see. But it sounds like RG3 had a "mild" concussion, whatever that means, and he'll probably start. If he does, I'm saying the Redskins will rally around him and the Vikes will wilt on the road. If RG3 does not play, let's call the line MIN by 3, and I like Washington to pull the upset straight up.
By the way, with the awful year that Cam Newton is having, how much longer do we have to wait before we ask who will end up being the best QB from the 2011 draft class? Ponder looks fantastic; Locker and Dalton look solid; and Gabbert is actually improving. Cam has a huge early lead, but I think Locker and Ponder could pass him by the end of this year.
Packers (2-3) @ Texans (5-0)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 3
My favorite football website used to be walterfootball.com. Unfortunately, that site has completely fallen to crap as Walt tries to be funny and is tragically unfunny. However, he still provides a few nuggets of good wisdom. For example:
Rodgers is 9-5 ATS as an underdog.
Rodgers is 10-4 ATS after a loss.
Rodgers is 18-9 ATS on the road.
Granted, Rodgers is good against the spread as a favorite, at home, after a win, pretty much always. But I really like getting points with him, even if it's just 3. I am not bailing on the Packers yet. In fact, I still like my Super Bowl pick (Pats over Pack), because both teams have somehow snuck under the radar. I'll say Green Bay wins outright, 24-20, and leaves Atlanta as the only unbeaten.
Broncos (2-3) @ Chargers (3-2)
Predicted Line: SD by 2.5
Actual Line: SD by 1.5
This is one of those week 6 games with huge playoff implications. If San Diego can get the win, they control the division. But on a Monday Night, is there anybody you can trust more than Peyton Manning? Broncos 37-27.
Go Lions. Let's not suck this week.
Also, go Tigers tonight. Game 5, win or go home. I have a great feeling that Verlander throws a 15-strikeout no-hitter in a game that becomes immortalized. I also think Verlander might get worked for some tough at-bats and only last 7 innings, and then the bullpen will ruin our season. After Jose Valverde's epic failure last night (he blew a 2 run lead in the 9th, you can say whatever crap you want about the A's being clutch and magical but that was a crappy closer having a crappy game and nothing else), does that mean we can finally get a new closer next year? How bout Albuquerque? I'm ready to see what Bruce Rondon (AAA closer) can do with his 102MPH stuff. Heck, Benoit would be a better closer, except that it takes him 95 seconds between pitches. Anyway, you can take Valverde, Delmon Young and Jim Leyland and send them all to Antarctica and we'll be a better baseball team effective immediately. I really hope we win tonight so we can take our shot at the super overrated Yankees and their lousy pitching staff, but I think there is a silver lining if we lose: Leyland will be history. Either way, there's no better spot than having the best pitcher in baseball pitching the deciding game. Verlander's going to need a shutout because we can't expect our offense to produce more than 2 or 3 runs the way they are playing.
Peace out.
Here's how I see it: on a scale of 1 to 100, the best teams in the league are about a 53 and the worst teams are about a 47. If Houston plays Cleveland, even though Houston will be favored by 14, the chances of the Browns winning straight up are probably 47%. I know that sounds idiotic, but look at the surprisingly bad seasons for the Packers and Pats and Saints ... what about the Vikings being 4-1... nothing makes sense. I'm done trying to figure it out. I'm just looking at every game as a 50-50 or maybe 53-47 proposition, so might as well take the home teams.
Here's the week 6 picks:
Steelers (2-2) @ Titans (1-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 6.5
Jake Locker is out. So is Polamalu for the Steelers, and probably Lamar Woodley. Rashard Mendenhall made his debut last week (and started for all 4 of my fantasy teams) and ran for 81 yards ... about as many as Chris Johnson has in 5 games. With no Locker and a lethargic CJ, it seems likely that the Titans offense will be unable to move the ball. But with no Polamalu or Woodley, Pittsburgh's defense is pretty average, maybe even subpar. Matt Hasslebeck is a wily veteran who can move the chains in spurts, but CJ will do everything he can to halt Titans' drives and keep up his hideous 1.8 YPC. Whether the Titans offense sucks and scores 3 points, or they play fairly well and score 24, I don't think it'll matter ... Ben Roethlisberger is in a groove, and the Titans D has no playmakers. The combo of Mendenhall, Wallace, Brown and Heath Miller gives Pittsburgh too much firepower. Even on a short week and without their defensive stars, I think the Steelers kick some butt to get to 3-2. I'll say they win 34-20.
Lions (1-3) @ Eagles (3-2)
Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5
Actual Line: PHI by 4
I've picked the Lions every week and they've yet to win against the spread. I'm not doing it again until they play differently. Congrats to DeSean Jackson on returning 6 punts for TDs. That's gotta be a new record.
Eagles 77-14.
Raiders (1-3) @ Falcons (5-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 13.5
Actual Line: ATL by 9
This line is too low. Right? I don't know .... I guess Atlanta's due for a disappointment. I would pick against them if this were any team except Oakland. But I hate Oakland. Especially their defense, which is on pace to be the worst third-down defense ever. Falcons 30-13.
Bengals (3-2) @ Browns (0-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3.5
Actual Line: CIN by 3
So much for Cincy. They lost to Miami, they can't be taken too seriously anymore. Joe Haden comes back for Cleveland, just in time for AJ Green. That matchup will largely determine the game. However, Cleveland could be without stud linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, which would make their run defense nonexistent. I'd like to take Cincy, but this has 13-15 written all over it, so I'll go with the points. Cincy by 2.
Rams (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-3)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: MIA by 3.5
(Flipping coin). Heads it is. Fins +3.5.
Colts (2-2) @ Jets (2-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
Is the Andrew Luck Era officially underway after he led his team past Aaron Rodgers? Was that symbolic of the years to come? I mean, it sure seems like that should be a bigger deal than "What color is Tim Tebow's WWJD bracelet?" I think the Colts are the better team, so I'll take those 3 points. Indy 27-16.
Chiefs (1-4) @ Bucs (1-3)
Predicted Line: TB by 3
Actual Line: TB by 4
Brady Quinn hasn't started a game since 2009. (In fact, his last start was when Jerome Harrison nearly broke the single-game rushing record with 286 yards.) Since then, Quinn spent two years in Denver without ever seeing the field, and now he replaces Matt Cassel, who was concussed last week, much to the delight of Chiefs fans. Not a big Tampa fan this year, but I'm even less of a Brady Quinn fan. Bucs 20-13.
Cowboys (2-2) @ Ravens (4-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6
Actual Line: BAL by 4
My favorite thing was listening to Colin Cowherd try to convince us that Tony Romo's 5 interception game against Chicago wasn't actually a bad game, and that Romo is still one of the elite QBs in the league. That guy can be a real moron when he doesn't want to admit he's wrong. I mean, Romo is okay sometimes, but he threw 5 interceptions for crying out loud! But Cowherd goes off into one of his condescending rants .... "So what if he threw 5 picks ...come on ... 1 was Dez Bryant's fault, 1 time the defender made a great catch, 1 he threw into triple coverage trying to make a play, and 1 was a late-in-the-game desperation throw. Really, if you watched the game, he only threw 1 that was a bad interception. And a 1 interception game isn't that bad because he also had a TD! So, Romo still is elite!! He only threw 1 interception!!! He's like Michael Jordan - sometimes he throws an interception, but he also won 6 championships! Tony Romo won 6 championships! He's elite! Tebow sucks! USC USC USC!!! ahhhhHHHH!!!!"
I like the Ravens. Until Dallas realizes how good DeMarco Murray is they'll continue to lose these tough games. Baltimore 23-17.
Bills (2-3) @ Cardinals (4-1)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5
Actual Line: ARZ by 5
Well so much for Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. Both guys are on IR, so now it's William Powell getting the start. That dude doesn't even have a Wikipedia page, so he must be fairly irrelevant. It's funny to me that he'll probably start for tens of millions of fantasy football teams, and nobody knows what he looks like or anything about him. It's also funny that he'll either run for less than 20 yards or more than 250, with no chance to be in the middle. I like Buffalo to pull the upset here, or at least keep it close. In the midst of their 4-0 start, everyone forgot that the Cardinals have the league's worst O-line. Nine sacks against the Rams and people started to remember. But this line is still inflated because of their fluky start to the season. In fact, I'll say Bills outright, 27-23.
Patriots (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4
(Flip...) Tails it is. Seahawks -4.
Giants (3-2) @ 49ers (4-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 6.5
With as awesome as the Giants are on the road, I'm taking these points gleefully. SF by 2.
Vikings (4-1) @ Redskins (2-3)
Predicted Line: Griffin?
Actual Line: Sounds like RG3 will play, so the line should be WAS by about 3
If RG3 can't play, every indication is that Kirk Cousins has beat out Rex Grossman for the backup role. That would be awesome to see. But it sounds like RG3 had a "mild" concussion, whatever that means, and he'll probably start. If he does, I'm saying the Redskins will rally around him and the Vikes will wilt on the road. If RG3 does not play, let's call the line MIN by 3, and I like Washington to pull the upset straight up.
By the way, with the awful year that Cam Newton is having, how much longer do we have to wait before we ask who will end up being the best QB from the 2011 draft class? Ponder looks fantastic; Locker and Dalton look solid; and Gabbert is actually improving. Cam has a huge early lead, but I think Locker and Ponder could pass him by the end of this year.
Packers (2-3) @ Texans (5-0)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 3
My favorite football website used to be walterfootball.com. Unfortunately, that site has completely fallen to crap as Walt tries to be funny and is tragically unfunny. However, he still provides a few nuggets of good wisdom. For example:
Rodgers is 9-5 ATS as an underdog.
Rodgers is 10-4 ATS after a loss.
Rodgers is 18-9 ATS on the road.
Granted, Rodgers is good against the spread as a favorite, at home, after a win, pretty much always. But I really like getting points with him, even if it's just 3. I am not bailing on the Packers yet. In fact, I still like my Super Bowl pick (Pats over Pack), because both teams have somehow snuck under the radar. I'll say Green Bay wins outright, 24-20, and leaves Atlanta as the only unbeaten.
Broncos (2-3) @ Chargers (3-2)
Predicted Line: SD by 2.5
Actual Line: SD by 1.5
This is one of those week 6 games with huge playoff implications. If San Diego can get the win, they control the division. But on a Monday Night, is there anybody you can trust more than Peyton Manning? Broncos 37-27.
Go Lions. Let's not suck this week.
Also, go Tigers tonight. Game 5, win or go home. I have a great feeling that Verlander throws a 15-strikeout no-hitter in a game that becomes immortalized. I also think Verlander might get worked for some tough at-bats and only last 7 innings, and then the bullpen will ruin our season. After Jose Valverde's epic failure last night (he blew a 2 run lead in the 9th, you can say whatever crap you want about the A's being clutch and magical but that was a crappy closer having a crappy game and nothing else), does that mean we can finally get a new closer next year? How bout Albuquerque? I'm ready to see what Bruce Rondon (AAA closer) can do with his 102MPH stuff. Heck, Benoit would be a better closer, except that it takes him 95 seconds between pitches. Anyway, you can take Valverde, Delmon Young and Jim Leyland and send them all to Antarctica and we'll be a better baseball team effective immediately. I really hope we win tonight so we can take our shot at the super overrated Yankees and their lousy pitching staff, but I think there is a silver lining if we lose: Leyland will be history. Either way, there's no better spot than having the best pitcher in baseball pitching the deciding game. Verlander's going to need a shutout because we can't expect our offense to produce more than 2 or 3 runs the way they are playing.
Peace out.
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