Don't have much time to write all this; so here's some brief thoughts from the world of sports.
1) Kyle VandenBosch was put on IR yesterday. He's the Lions 3rd best player. This sucks.
2) Suh was fined $15,000 for a perfectly legal tackle. My respect for Roger Goddell drops from a 98 to a 52 with this complete bullcrap. Un-Bee-Leave-A-Bull. Worst Fine I've ever seen.
3) Everyone is obsessed with saying "What is wrong with the Miami Heat?" because they started the year 9-8 and had a 3 game losing streak. Since then, they've won 6 straight. They just needed some time to get used to each other. Calm down everybody, it's not like they'll miss the playoffs. Worst case, they get the 3 seed. More likely they get the 2 seed. And they won't be easy to beat in a 7 game series. They're still the favorites no matter what their record is.
4) Everyone is obsessed with saying "What is wrong with Peyton Manning?" because he's thrown 11 INTs in his last 3 games. This might be more valid than the Miami thing, but it's still overblown. He really misses Dallas Clark and Austin Collie and has zero running game to lean on. It's not his fault. A lot of those picks were because of drops, tips, or pointless hailmarys. Don't overreact; he'll still be a force to be reckoned with and he'll still be in the playoffs.
5) I hope Favre's career is done, but I doubt it. That consecutive starts streak means more to him than his own health. What a freaking moron.
6) Shutup Derek Jeter. It must be so terrible to be paid $60 million to be a below-average shortshop. You had the 8th best batting average on your own team, and yet you're being paid more than $1 million per month. How awful.
7) Hate to break it to you, but Cliff Lee is 100% going to the Yankees. Why is this even considered a topic of debate?
8) A lot of interesting things happened last week in the NFL:
A) Tom Brady secured the MVP
B) Sam Bradford secured ROY
C) The following teams' slim playoff hopes were crushed: Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Washington.
D) I went 9-7 against the spread, bringing me to 102-86-4 this year. I only really whiffed on 3 picks (IND-Dal, GB-SF, NYG-WAS). Atlanta only covered by 1; Carolina blew a 14 point lead; Tennessee apparently gave up on the season; and Chad Henne played his worst professional game. If I could have foreseen those strange occureneces, I might have been 13-3 ATS. Oh well.
9) My fantasy basketball team is doing well thanks to Kevin Love's nightly 20-20s and Blake Griffin's 30-15s. I'm dominating rebounds, despite wasting a draft pick on Chris Bosh. My biggest letdown has been #2 overall pick (NBA Draft pick, not fantasy pick) Evan Turner; he rarely scores more than 5 points. I'm dropping him today.
10) I essentially have a bye week in fantasy, after clinching the playoffs last week behind AP and Wayne's big games. Playoffs start next week. This week I'm resting my starters. I just hope I can convince their head coaches to do the same.
11) In the B League, I'll be in the playoffs if I win this week against Alaska. It's do-or-die. I'm glad my team is much better than his. Feeling good about my chances.
12) On to week 14's picks...
Indy (6-6) @ Tennessee (5-7) on THURSDAY
Predicted Line: IND by 2
Actual Line: IND by 3
In the last 5 weeks, these teams are a combined 1-9. The one win came against Cincinnati. Yikes.
Somebody's gotta win though, and I should probably take Peyton Manning over Kerry Collins. Random prediction: Randy Moss scores 2 TDs.
Browns (5-7) @ Bills (2-10)
Predicted Line: CLE by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 1
I can't figure this line out ... Cleveland is clearly the better team.
Last week was a major Coming Back Down To Earth week for Ryan Fitzpatrick (also for Kyle Orton, Dwayne Bowe, Rex Ryan, and Peyton Hillis) so hopefully the chatter about Buffalo keeping Fitz and not drafting a quarterback will stop. They CLEARLY need a quarterback; now the only issue is: will they get first dibs, or will Cincinnati? The 2011 Draft is shaping up to be interesting. Will Carolina keep Claussen or draft Luck #1? Will the Lions keep losing and take the best player in the draft, CB Patrick Peterson from LSU, with the #2 pick? Where will stud receiver AJ Green go? What about Mallet, Locker, Newton, and the other QBs? Will Minnesota and Washington take QBs? Will Oakland draft Usain Bolt? If the Lions don't get Peterson, will they address the secondary or the offensive line?
For this game, I'll take Cleveland. Peyton Hillis is still working on a Fantasy MVP season, and he won't stop now against the league's worst rushing defense.
Tampa Bay (7-5) @ Washington (5-7)
Predicted Line: WAS by 1.5
Actual Line: TB by 2.5
Hmm... five thoughts.
1) McNabb stinks. This is the worst season of his career, period. Since the secret's out with Carson Palmer, I guess I'll have to call Donovan 'The Secretly Terrible Donovan McNabb.' Will someone accuse me of being a racist if I do that?
2) Albert Haynesworth is a fat lazy piece of crap. But Mike Shanahan has also proven to be a terrible coach in this mess. What an ugly situation.
3) Washington can't stop the run and appears to be quitting on their coach (that's the new trend this year)
4) Tampa might be deflated after a crushing loss to Atlanta last week. They might come out flat.
5) Amazingly, Tampa has the better player at QB, RB, and WR in this matchup.
But I have no idea what to do, so I'm siding with the Home Dog.
Atlanta (10-2) @ Carolina (1-11)
Predicted Line: ATL by 12.5
Actual Line: ATL by 7.5
Whoa. I missed that line by 5 points. That doesn't happen too often. Guess I should take Atlanta and not overthink.
Oakland (6-6) @ Jacksonville (7-5)
Predicted Line: JAC by 4.5
Actual Line: JAC by 3
Both of these teams have a reasonable shot at winning their crap divisions, so this game is important. Too bad both teams stink. I'm taking Jags at home.
Packers (8-4) @ Lions (2-10)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 6.5
This line is a little high, don't you think? Considering Detroit has been able to keep games close and entertaining all season ... and considering we led New England and Chicago at halftime in consecutive weeks. I know Drew Stanton will continue to play like a video game (take the snap, immediately start running backwards, scramble aimlessly for 15 seconds, then throw) and I know KVB's injury really sucks, but Green Bay has some weaknesses of their own: they can't run the ball, they don't pass-protect very well, and the defense gives up some big plays. Calvin should have another score, Suh should wreak some havoc, and I like our chances to keep this game close. Ish. Maybe a 24-30 "thriller" although the outcome will never be in doubt. I'll take Detroit at home.
Giants (8-4) @ Vikings (5-7)
Predicted Line: who knows. Is Favre playing? I'll say NYG by 2
Actual Line: NYG by 2.5
I dunno ... I'll take the Vikings in the Upset of the Week. Who cares. All these picks stink today. Never mind, I'll take the Giants. I keep forgetting how much Favre sucks.
Cincinnati (2-10) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 10.5
Actual Line: PIT by 8.5
The Bengals should be giving this game everything they have ... I'll take Cincy to cover, I guess. That's a big line for an offensive line with 4 injured starters.
Rams (6-6) @ Saints (9-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 6
Actual Line: NO by 9.5
Sheesh, that's the fourth line I've missed by more than 3 points. Some strange games this week. Either that or I'm just not focused. It has been a busy week - woke up at 4am yesterday and 4:30 today. Crazy stuff. By the way, Jack turned 1 on Tuesday. My son is one. How weird and simultaneously awesome.
I'm taking the Rams in this game. That line is way too high. Sam Bradford will likely never be a 9 point underdog again in his career. The Saints don't usually cover high spreads. This is all Rams. In fact, I'm making this the Upset of the Week. I think they might win outright.
Seahawks (6-6) @ 49ers (4-8)
Predicted Line: SF by 5
Actual Line: SF by 5.5
That's an awfully high line for a team that stinks, especially with Gore out for the year and yet another QB switch. They're going back to Alex Smith. He stinks, but should do okay against Seattle's horrible defense. I think San Fran wins this game. But I'm taking Seattle to cover. 6 points is too many.
Dolphins (6-6) @ Jets (9-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 7
Actual Line: NYJ by 5.5
Hmmm... let's see. Chad Henne stinks. Mark Sanchez stinks. Both teams can run the ball. Sounds like a fabulous, exciting game. I'm taking Miami to cover because that's simply too many points for the Jets offense to be giving.
Denver (3-9) @ Arizona (3-9)
Predicted Line: Pick em
Actual Line: DEN by 5.5
WHOA. Arizona is a homedog by almost 6 points? To Denver, who just fired their coach!?
I blame the Interim Coach Phenomenon. Since 1980 interim head coaches are something like 256-3 in their first game. Garrett and Frazier are two examples from this year. Everyone will expect Denver's interim coach Eric Studesville to follow suit. But unlike Dallas and Minnesota, Denver doesn't have a team loaded with talent. Josh McDaniels made sure to drive all the talent out of town and instead draft Tim Tebow.
So forget the Interim thing. I'm taking Arizona because even though they're the worst team in the NFL, they should NOT be 6 point underdogs at home against a terrible team. I would make this the Lock of the Week, but I don't exactly trust the legendary John Skelton as he makes his first start. But there's no way he could be worse than Derek Anderson, right?
Chiefs (8-4) @ Chargers (6-6)
Predicted Line: SD by 3
Actual Line: SD by 6.5
This is the biggest game of the year for both teams. Chargers will win and avenge their loss to KC way back in week 1, but I think 6 points is too high. Chiefs lose in OT, 27-30.
*EDIT* Brodie Croyle is starting, instead of Matt Cassel. I'm gonna switch the pick to San Diego.**
Patriots (10-2) @ Bears (9-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 4
Actual Line: NE by 3
If I made the lines, this would be New England by 10. And I'd pick New England.
Eagles (8-4) @ Cowboys (4-8)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Line: PHI by 3.5
Throw out the records. Dallas is 3-1 since firing Wade and should be 4-0. They are a team that would have gone 12-4 with a competent coach. I'm done dissing Dallas.
But now they run into Michael Vick. Last week they had Peyton Manning. The week before they had Drew Brees. Come on, that's not even fair. I'm taking Dallas to win outright. Call me crazy.
Baltimore (8-4) @ Houston (5-7)
Predicted Line: BAL by 4
Actual Line: BAL by 3
Houston wins a Monday night shocker. Sure, why not.
Just so you know, I have zero confidence in my picks this week. Expecting to go 6-10 or worse. Bah. Go Lions, and go democracy!!
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
week 13 Picks
Texans (5-6) @ Eagles (7-4) on Thursday
Predicted Line: PHI by 8.5
Actual Line: PHI by 8.5
Off to a good start. Hit the line exactly. Now... just have to figure out what to do with this mysterious Texans team ...
Their disgustingly bad secondary now faces Michael Vick, thus the 9 point spread. But some people will look at Houston's 20-0 win over Tennessee last week and ask, Is the defense getting better? Or did they just enjoy a good game against Rusty Smith? In my opinion, it's probably the latter. Don't expect any less than 4 TDs from Vick. He's the #1 QB option in fantasy football this week - especially given that the Texans D must travel across the country on 4 days rest.
But at first blush, I think this line might be too high. Philly's defense looked worthless last week against Chicago, and will likely be without Asante Samuel for another game. That means no one can match up with Andre Johnson, who was fined $25,000 but not suspended for his fight with Cortland Finnegan. Johnson is a BAD dude, and I mean that in a good way. He is not only the game's best wide receiver, but a pretty scary dude to fight against. Finnegan went from trash-talking instigator to pants-peeing-guy-getting-the-crap-beat-out-of-him in about 2 seconds. I loved it. Good call by the league not giving out suspensions. If you're not going to suspend Richard Seymour for sucker-punching a quarterback, don't suspend these guys for a 5 second fight in the heat of the game.
So I think Johnson will play well, and I'm certain that Arian Foster will be able to run on the Eagles. Houston should be able to score 24 or 27, especially if the Eagles move into a prevent defense late with a big lead and Houston gets a backdoor TD. But I see Philly scoring close to 40. I'll take Philly by a hair.
Saints (8-3) @ Bengals (2-9)
Predicted Line: NO by 7
Actual Line: NO by 6.5
90% of Vegas is betting on the Saints in this game. Really? To cover a 7 point spread on the road after almost losing to the Cowboys last week? I know Drew Brees is on fire right now, and I know Cincy is playing without stud CB Jonathan Joseph, but all season long we've seen Carson and TO cover backdoor spreads with garbage-time TDs. Why would it stop now, in a home game, when Carson is basically playing to keep his job? I think the Saints eek out an ugly 27-23 win. Anytime 90% of betting action is on a road-favorite I am leery. Go Bengals.
Bears (8-3*) @ Lions (2-9)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 3.5
I'm guessing this line was set prior to the news that Shaun Hill's broken finger might (and by might, I mean definitely will, but Jim Schwartz is doing that thing he always does where he tries to keep opposing teams wondering which crappy quarterback will start, as if they care) keep him out for the remainder of the season. Which means, yes, five games of Drew Stanton starting.
Five. Games. Of. Drew. Stanton. Starting.
But don't worry Lions' fans, yesterday we claimed 7th round rookie Zac Robinson off waivers and he will serve as the backup for the rest of the season. All in favor of calling him Z-Rob? None opposed? Okay, motion carried.
A quick Wikipedia search informs me that Z-Rob played his collegiate ball at Oklahoma State, where he threw passes to none other than Dez Bryant, and Brandon Pettigrew the year before! Z-Rob was a dual threat in college, running for more than 800 yards his sophomore season while passing for 2,800 yards. He set a school record for total yardage that season, and only one other college QB had 800 rushing yards and 2,800 passing yards. That was of course Heisman winner Tim Tebow.
Z-Rob was highly touted going into his 2009 senior season, but Dez Bryant's suspension killed the OSU season. Then Z-Rob got riddled with injuries. First a concussion, then a shoulder, then a hamstring. He ended up being drafted in the 7th round by New England (hey, if Bill Belichick was impressed, that's all I need to know) but then was cut from the 53 man roster. Seattle picked up Z-Rob, left him on the practice squad for 2 months, and then let him go. Now, he's the Lions backup quarterback. And unless you think Stanton can stay healthy for 5 games, we'll almost certainly see Z-Rob take the field before week 17. Somewhere Calvin Johnson is weeping in a dark closet.
So this line is currently at just 3.5, but by Sunday I expect it to rise to 6 or so. No one respects Drew Stanton, and rightfully so. He was an adequate college player, but doesn't have an NFL arm. But dangit, I'm writing this pick now, so I'll make the pick against the 3.5 line.
Remember, last time we played Chicago, we beat them on a last-second TD pass to Calvin Johnson. Thus the asterisk next to Chicago's 8-3 record. They know they're 7-4, and Detroit knows they're 3-8. The problem in that game for Detroit was an inability to slow down Matt Forte, especially on that one horrendous 80 yard screen pass. The other problem was Jeff Backus trying to block Julius Peppers by himself, which led to Matt Stafford missing 6 games. The good news is that Stanton's mobility is a nice fit for Backus's awfulness ... at least Stanton can run away from Peppers. But that's only if he sees him coming. What separates great QBs from awful QBs is eyes in the back of their head. A guy like Manning, Brees, or even Vick does not get strip-sacked, because they know the timing down to the split-second. They see Peppers coming and step up in the pocket (or run away, in Vick's case) at exactly the right moment. The only way to have that ability is in-game experience. No way Stanton has that. Not even close. So as fast as he might be, he'll never see Peppers coming. And thus you can expect 4+ sacks for Chicago and a fumble or two.
If Detroit's smart, they'll double team Peppers with both Backus and Sims, and chip him with Maurice Morris as well. We really don't want to begin the Z-Rob experiment any sooner than necessary. And we know firsthand the devastation that a Peppers karate chop can have. Dude is pretty strong.
Calvin Johnson won't be guardable by Chicago's overrated secondary, but it won't matter unless Stanton can throw him the ball. And since he doesn't have the arm strength or the accuracy of Shaun Hill (which really isn't saying much), that's probably unlikely. Maybe Calvin will have 4 catches, 50 yards, and a TD. Maybe.
The running game won't exist once again, at least not from the RB position. But Drew Stanton does have one skill that might make this game interesting: he can scramble for first downs. 3rd and 5, 3rd and 7, even 3rd and 10, Stanton isn't afraid to take off towards the marker. He won't slide a yard short like Stafford. He'll go for it. That might keep drives alive and keep this game close. It also might commence Z-Rob's career.
The way Chicago is playing right now, coming off an impressive win against Vick and the Eagles, it's just way too hard to pick against them, especially against the Lions' 3rd string QB. I know Chicago is hugely overrated and I know Jay Cutler is garbage; I'm not jumping on the Chicago bandwagon at all. They're the worst 8-3 team in NFL history, and they're about to be the worst 9-3 team in the NFL history. I'm taking the Bears. Bah.
Ps. I know I didn't talk about the most obvious matchup in this game - Suh and KVB against the Bears' piss-poor pass protection. I felt it was too obvious. It's become almost a given that the Lions will put pressure on the quarterback, have a few sacks, and cause a few bad throws. But until the secondary can play like professionals, it's really not helping us win games. Suh is spectacular, and might have a 2 sack game against Cutler and Martz's moronic gameplan. But I don't trust the CBs to stop speedsters like Knox and Hester. As bad as Cutler is, he's one of the few quarterbacks who can be trusted to occasionally convert a 3rd and 15. Detroit would have a chance in this game if the defensive gameplan was flawless, and the blitzes were well-timed and effective, and the coverage schemes were competent. Unfortunately, I just don't trust Gunther Cunningham.
PS - Worst Case Scenario this week in fantasy. Playing against both Cutler AND Forte in the A league. The good news is a TD for one cancels out a TD for the other (unless it's a screen, in which case I boil some hot water and dump it on my head). The bad news is both guys should have at least 2 TDs without breaking a sweat. Come on Suh, I need you this week!
49ers (4-7) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5
Actual Line: GB by 10
See, this is why you don't want to start the season 0-6. You might stage a nice little comback, but then you have to travel to Lambeau in December. Green Bay wins this game, no doubt.
But isn't 10 points a little too high for a game that's supposed to by 29 degrees and snowy? It's going to be tough for even Aaron Rodgers to score in the snow without a running game. And San Fran has come confidence after the Monday night blowout. So they might keep it close for a while, even without Frank Gore. I see this game somewhere in the range of Packers 23, Niners 17. I'll take San Fran**.
Jaguars (6-5) @ Titans (5-6)
Predicted Line: TEN by 1.5
Actual Line: TEN by 2
Kerry Collins is listed as day-to-day with a calf injury, but after seeing the trainwreck named Rusty Smith last week you can bet that Jeff Fisher will put Collins out there even if he can't walk. Does a 37 year old quarterback even need calves anyway? That, along with the fact that nobody trusts the Jaguars, is why Tennessee is favored despite getting blanked last week.
I have absolutely no idea what to do for this game. The AFC South is a crapshoot. Probly just take the home team.
Denver (3-8) @ KC (7-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 6.5
Actual Line: KC by 9.5
This is the first line (other than the bad Lions line which doesn't account for Hill's injury) that I've missed by more than 1 point. This line is way too high. Matt Cassel shouldn't be giving 10 points to anybody. The Chiefs might cover, but I'd rather take the points. Especially with Orton leading the comeback attempt.
Browns (4-7) @ Miami (6-5)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4
Actual Line: MIA by 4.5
My brain says: Delhomme on the road! Take Miami!
But then my brain also says: Peyton Hillis is completely unstoppable!! Take Cleveland!
I am completely conflicted. What is more of a factor, Hillis's goodness or Delhomme's badness? I guess I'd have to say Delhomme's badness. I'll take Miami and hope Brandon Marshall plays. He should.
Bills (2-9) @ Vikings (4-7)
Predicted Line: MIN by 5.5
Actual Line: MIN by 5.5
This line is predictably low because AP is a gametime decision with a sprained ankle. But I personally think he'll play. And Buffalo's defense gave up 188 yards to Rashard Mendenhall last week, so even if AP sits out Toby Gerhard should run without much resistance. But like I said, I think AP will play, and thus, I like the Vikings in a big win. Especially because Buffalo is probably wore out after the heartbreaking loss to Pittsburgh last week in OT. This game has Vikings all over it. I might even make it the Lock of the Week. Yeah, I think I will.
Redskins (5-6) @ Giants (7-4)
Predicted Line: NYG by 7
Actual Line: NYG by 7
Both of these teams are quite awful right now. New York's high powered offense has become a lot less exciting without Nicks and Steve Smith. Mario Manningham should have had a bonkers week against Jacksonville last week, but he only had, what, 60 yards? I also expected a lot from new WR2 Derek Hagan, and he was invisible. Tight end Kevin Boss has suddenly become one of Eli's favorite targets, and he's as slow as any tight end I've ever seen. Add in the fumbling issues and injuries to the offensive line ... and I'm not a big fan of the Giants offense. Which is why I'm taking the Redskins, who I also don't like at all right now. They have bad receivers, a bad running game, and no identity on offense. Not to mention a bad offensive line, and a coach who seems to hate half of his players for no apparent reason. I hate both of these teams. So I expect a sloppy game and 7 points is probably too high.
Raiders (5-6) @ Chargers (6-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 10.5
Actual Line: SD by 13
Knew this line would be big, but didn't think it would be two-touchdowns big. That's asking a lot for an inconsistent San Diego team with a tremendously overrated defense. I don't trust them to stop McFadden or the big-play receivers in Oakland. Jacoby Ford has quickly made a name for himself as a 2 catches for 75 yards kind of guy. If this line were SD by 10 or 11, I'd sign up. But 13 is a bit too high. I'll go with Oakland in a 35-24 losing effort.
Carolina (1-10) @ Seahawks (5-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 6
Actual Line: SEA by 6
That's the fourth line I've guessed exactly.
Upset of the Week time. I actually like Carolina to win this game straight up, for a few different reasons.
1) Seattle is terrible. They can't run the ball (Marshawn Lynch is a joke; his YPC is a measly 3.1), they can't protect the passer, and Hasselbeck doesn't have any decent receivers right now. Whenever an injury to Mike Williams is severely crippling your offense, you know your team is pathetic. And their defense has been completely unable to stop the run ever since Colin Cole and Red Bryant got hurt about 5 weeks ago. (They were ranked 5th at stopping the run, since then they've fallen to 20th.) Their secondary has been terrible all year (they rank 30th) and in 3 of their last 4 games, Seattle has failed to record a sack. So yeah, Pete Carroll's squad is much worse than their 5-6 record.
2) Carolina isn't as bad as their 1-10 record indicates. Well, okay maybe they are. But last week they ran the ball for 153 yards against a pretty solid Browns defense. Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart were able to put Claussen in all kinds of 3rd and short situations, and despite having no NFL-caliber receivers, he played decently and almost rallied to win.
3) Seattle's home-field advantage isn't what it used to be. And typically it's unwise to pick an east-coast team traveling West , but John Fox has been an exception: he's 7-2 ATS on the west coast as head coach of the Panthers.
4) Did I mention that Seattle is terrible? They should in no way be 6 point favorites, ever. If you swapped these teams divisions and schedules, right now Carolina would be 5-6 and Seattle would be 1-10. They are equally talented. I'm taking Carolina to win straight up, and if all they do is cover the 6 point spread I'll at least get my Upset pick right.
Rams (5-6) @ Cardinals (3-8)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 3
Make that five lines picked precisely. Although this one was easy.
Rams are playing great right now, Cards are playing awful, but nobody wants to give a rookie QB more than a field goal on the road. This is a crappy situation for Bradford. If he loses this game, it's a big step backwards for his career, his reputation, and his ROY chances. People will question and doubt him and say "Come on, you can't even beat the CARDINALS?"
But if the Rams win, nobody will be impressed. They just beat a terrible team. Big deal.
It's sort of like the Lions recent game against the Bills. Nothing to gain, but everything to lose. The best thing Bradford can do is just play like he's been playing, and get the win.
And on the other side ...wait, what? I haven't said anything yet about Derek Anderson's unintentionally hilarious tirade after the MNF blowout? In case you didn't see it, Anderson was seen laughing on the sideline with a lineman during the blowout, and was asked about it by a reporter in the postgame conference. Here's Anderson's now-legendary reaction. And here's a parody video that was made the next day. Classic. And here's basketball star Dwight Howard making fun of Anderson. And this one is an absolute MUST-WATCH. I don't have anything else to add. Those videos speak for themselves. YouTube is awesome.
The thing that outrages me isn't that Anderson was laughing on the sideline. Whatever. It's a 3 hour game and who knows what he was laughing about. I'm sure it wasn't "Haha, I suck, I love losing." Probably an inside joke or making fun of a coach or something. Who knows.
People are saying, "Yeah, but you would never catch Tom Brady laughing on the sideline during a blowout loss." Very true. That's a valid point, and probably part of the reason why Brady is a champion and Anderson is not. But still, the laughter isn't what outrages me. It's the fact that Anderson is still allowed to start at quarterback for the Cardinals.
He's lost 5 straight as a starter, and in 8 starts this season his QB rating hasn't once exceeded 92. It's a dreary 68.2 for the season. And his completion percentage, 52.8%, is one of the worst I've ever seen. He's like a mix between Jake Delhomme's interceptions and JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy with a dash of David Carr's willingness to get sacked. But he has one thing none of those guys had. Larry Fitzgerald. And a Hall of Famer in Alan Faneca on the offensive line. So come one. Take Anderson out of there and see what you've got with the young QBs Max Hall and John Skelton. We've seen Hall stink this year (though he showed promise in beating the Saints) and for all we know, John Skelton might be okay. At least give him a chance you numskulls.
I know the Rams have been absymal on the road for the past 5 years or so, and it's tough to pick them as a road favorite covering 3 points. But with apologies to Carolina and Buffalo, I think Arizona is the NFL's worst team right now. So I've got to pick the Rams.
Cowboys (3-8) @ Colts (6-5)
Predicted Line: IND by 7.5
Actual Line: IND by 5
Ha.
This line makes me giggle. I'll take Indy and if I could I'd gladly put down a couple hundred dollars. I'm also changing this to my Lock of the week, instead of Minnesota. How can the oddsmakers say the Colts are only TWO points better than the Cowboys?? (remember, football betting 101 -homefield accounts for 3 points) This line is just absurd. Peyton Manning losing a third straight game, especially when the playoffs are on the line? Austin Collie should be back, Addai might be back, and Dez Bryant is hurt for the Cowboys. And do I need to remind you who the Cowboys quarterback is? Jon Kitna! Why is this line only 5 points?! What am I missing???
... Oh yeah, the Colts can't run the ball, they can't protect Manning, Dallas has DeMarcus Ware, and the Cowboys are finally playing up to their potential now that Wade is gone. Hmm. Plus Peyton has thrown 7 picks in the last 2 games. But I'm willing to say that was a fluke and he gets back on track. He's not the greatest QB ever for no reason.
Colts by 5. Lock of the Week. My prediction: Colts 30, Cowboys 20.
Falcons (9-2) @ Bucs (7-4)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3
Actual Line: ATL by 3
Picking the line here is the same situation as the Rams @ Cards game. The road team is clearly the better team, but it shouldn't be a blowout. That's almost always a line of 3. Don't look now but I've picked six of these lines to the exact point.
This game is huge for Tampa Bay, who wants to prove that they belong with the big boys. I've no doubt that Josh Freeman belongs (or will belong someday), but I have my doubts about the Tampa defense and the Tampa running game.
LeGarette Blount had a nice little streak going (nice enough that I was able to swap him straight up for Reggie Wayne, an absolute steal for me), but I think he's regressing into the immature rookie that he is. Plus that offensive line is below average, which is putting it mildly.
Aqib Talib is proving to be a stud at cornerback, but he's got his hands full with Roddy White. Last time these squads met White had a season-low 49 yards. Obviously you can't bench White in fantasy, but expect a less-than-amazing game from him and a better-than-average game from Tony Gonzalez.
The Bucs' front 7 really has no chance against Michael Turner. They gave up 107 yards and 2 TDs in their previous matchup, and rank dead last in YPC defense. Turner has a cake matchup. He'll have to carry the team, because as I've said before, Matt Ryan is not the same QB on the road. He struggles in outdoor games, which is weird because he played his college ball outdors in the northeast.
Like I said, this game is huge for Tampa Bay. It will make-or-break their playoff hopes. But, don't make the mistake of believing that this game is less meaningful for Atlanta, or that they'll be flat. They desperately need each remaining win to secure homefield throughout the playoffs, and considering Ryan's ridiculous 19-1 record at home, that's something they need more than any other team.
86% of the betting action is on Atlanta, which proves that nobody is buying into Tampa as a real team yet. I wish this line were 1 point or 2 lower, because I do think Atlanta probably wins. But I know Freeman will keep it close, and with a gun to my head I'd take the Bucs to cover. This is their biggest home game in years. Why are people always sticking guns to my head when I make my picks?!
Steelers (8-3) @ Ravens (8-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAL by 3
Sometimes picking the line is too easy. Same record, equal teams, the home team will be favored by 3. That's seven exact lines.
This is being hyped as the Game of the Week because it will dictate the winner of the AFC North. But I think it should be mentioned that both of these teams are already IN the playoffs. The loser of this game will be earning one Wildcard, while the other goes to the Jets-Pats loser. So while this is a huge game, it's not a playoff-determining game. Why not? Because both teams still have Cleveland and Cincinnati remaining on the schedule, so they'll both win at least 10 games, and that'll be enough for the playoffs in the AFC because the Colts and Chargers are going to win their divisions with 9-7 records. My guess is the winner of this game finishes 12-4 and the loser goes 11-5.
OK. Onto the actual game.
Baltimore won the previous matchup 17-14 at Heinz Field, but that game featured Charlie Batch instead of Rapelisberger, which is obviously huge. But that game was also in Pittsburgh, and this one is in Baltimore. Also huge.
We've learned a lot since week 4; Rashard Mendenhall is the unquestioned centerpiece of the Pittsburgh offense; Ray Rice is more dangerous as a receiver than a runner; injuries to the offensive line have hurt both teams, especially Pittsburgh; Baltimore's defense is overrated against the run, giving up 101 yards per game and 4.2 YPC, compared to 64 yards per game and 3.0 YPC for Pittsburgh's historically good run defense; Pittsburgh secretly stinks at defending the pass, ranking 22nd in terms of passing yards allowed and 23rd in completion percentage allowed. Baltimore's pass defense is actually much better, especially since Ed Reed returned from the PUP list. They ranked 7th and 9th in the two aforementioned statistics, respectively. But one of the key differences in these defenses is pass rush; Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the NFL with 32, while Baltimore's 19 sacks rank 28th best.
This should obviously be another low-scoring affair, and thus it makes sense to take the points and take Pittsburgh. Interesting fact: since the Roethlisberger-Flacco era began 3 years ago, this game has been decided by 4 or less points in 5 of 7 matchups. It's never been more than a 10 point game. I think that trend will continue, and I like the point. But I actually think the Steelers will win outright. But if they lose, it'll be by 3 points or less. Gimme dem Stellers en geddaff ma cotch. (Pittsburgh translation: Give me them Steelers, and get off my couch)
Jets (9-2) @ Patriots (9-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 3.5
Blast! If I had got that line exactly I would have picked 8 lines- HALF the games - exactly right. That would have been an accomplishment in itself.
But I should have smelled something fishy; everybody knows the Pats are an elite team and the Jets are a 9-2 team masquareding as elite but they have tons and tons of flaws. Starting with their quarterback Mark Sanchez, and his Derek Anderson-esque 55% completion percentage. And their washed up, overrated running back. And their vastly overrated pass defense which only ranks 12th best in the NFL, even though they talk about themselves like they're the 85 Bears.
But the most important distinction between these teams comes in the schedules. Listen to this and prepare to be blown away:
The Jets have beaten only ONE playoff team this season, and that was New England, week 2. Their other 8 wins are against Miami, Buffalo, Minnesota, Denver (because of a bad pass interference call), Detroit (because Suh missed an extra point and Detroit was unbelievably stupid), Cleveland (because the Browns fumbled in field goal range in OT), Houston (because the Texans blew a 16 point lead in the 4th quarter), and Cincinnati (because they stink). When they played elite defenses (Baltimore, Green Bay) they scored an average of less than 5 points per game. What's going to happen in the playoffs when they face either Baltimore or Pittsburgh?
The Pats, on the other hand, have beaten the four best teams in the AFC: Indy, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and San Diego. If you swap these teams' schedules, New England is 10-1 and the Jets are 6-5. No doubt in my mind. So, even if the Jets win this game, I'll still have no problem saying that New England is the better team.
So I am picking the Pats to win, and not just by 3; I think they'll win by 27. And here's why:
1) The last three times Belichick lost a divisional game and then faced that same team later on in the season, he won by 31, 20, and 17 points. He holds grudges. Especially against attention-hogging idiots like Rex Ryan. He'll run up the score and expose every weakness the Jets have.
2) Tom Brady knows how important this game is. The winner gets homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and a first round bye. The loser has to play either Manning or Rivers in the first round. The difference between Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez is like the difference between Kobe Bryant and Troy Murphy. It's embarassing.
This is the biggest regular season game of the year. And it's going to be all Pats.
That's all I got. Sorry these picks are later than usual. Go Lions.
Predicted Line: PHI by 8.5
Actual Line: PHI by 8.5
Off to a good start. Hit the line exactly. Now... just have to figure out what to do with this mysterious Texans team ...
Their disgustingly bad secondary now faces Michael Vick, thus the 9 point spread. But some people will look at Houston's 20-0 win over Tennessee last week and ask, Is the defense getting better? Or did they just enjoy a good game against Rusty Smith? In my opinion, it's probably the latter. Don't expect any less than 4 TDs from Vick. He's the #1 QB option in fantasy football this week - especially given that the Texans D must travel across the country on 4 days rest.
But at first blush, I think this line might be too high. Philly's defense looked worthless last week against Chicago, and will likely be without Asante Samuel for another game. That means no one can match up with Andre Johnson, who was fined $25,000 but not suspended for his fight with Cortland Finnegan. Johnson is a BAD dude, and I mean that in a good way. He is not only the game's best wide receiver, but a pretty scary dude to fight against. Finnegan went from trash-talking instigator to pants-peeing-guy-getting-the-crap-beat-out-of-him in about 2 seconds. I loved it. Good call by the league not giving out suspensions. If you're not going to suspend Richard Seymour for sucker-punching a quarterback, don't suspend these guys for a 5 second fight in the heat of the game.
So I think Johnson will play well, and I'm certain that Arian Foster will be able to run on the Eagles. Houston should be able to score 24 or 27, especially if the Eagles move into a prevent defense late with a big lead and Houston gets a backdoor TD. But I see Philly scoring close to 40. I'll take Philly by a hair.
Saints (8-3) @ Bengals (2-9)
Predicted Line: NO by 7
Actual Line: NO by 6.5
90% of Vegas is betting on the Saints in this game. Really? To cover a 7 point spread on the road after almost losing to the Cowboys last week? I know Drew Brees is on fire right now, and I know Cincy is playing without stud CB Jonathan Joseph, but all season long we've seen Carson and TO cover backdoor spreads with garbage-time TDs. Why would it stop now, in a home game, when Carson is basically playing to keep his job? I think the Saints eek out an ugly 27-23 win. Anytime 90% of betting action is on a road-favorite I am leery. Go Bengals.
Bears (8-3*) @ Lions (2-9)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 3.5
I'm guessing this line was set prior to the news that Shaun Hill's broken finger might (and by might, I mean definitely will, but Jim Schwartz is doing that thing he always does where he tries to keep opposing teams wondering which crappy quarterback will start, as if they care) keep him out for the remainder of the season. Which means, yes, five games of Drew Stanton starting.
Five. Games. Of. Drew. Stanton. Starting.
But don't worry Lions' fans, yesterday we claimed 7th round rookie Zac Robinson off waivers and he will serve as the backup for the rest of the season. All in favor of calling him Z-Rob? None opposed? Okay, motion carried.
A quick Wikipedia search informs me that Z-Rob played his collegiate ball at Oklahoma State, where he threw passes to none other than Dez Bryant, and Brandon Pettigrew the year before! Z-Rob was a dual threat in college, running for more than 800 yards his sophomore season while passing for 2,800 yards. He set a school record for total yardage that season, and only one other college QB had 800 rushing yards and 2,800 passing yards. That was of course Heisman winner Tim Tebow.
Z-Rob was highly touted going into his 2009 senior season, but Dez Bryant's suspension killed the OSU season. Then Z-Rob got riddled with injuries. First a concussion, then a shoulder, then a hamstring. He ended up being drafted in the 7th round by New England (hey, if Bill Belichick was impressed, that's all I need to know) but then was cut from the 53 man roster. Seattle picked up Z-Rob, left him on the practice squad for 2 months, and then let him go. Now, he's the Lions backup quarterback. And unless you think Stanton can stay healthy for 5 games, we'll almost certainly see Z-Rob take the field before week 17. Somewhere Calvin Johnson is weeping in a dark closet.
So this line is currently at just 3.5, but by Sunday I expect it to rise to 6 or so. No one respects Drew Stanton, and rightfully so. He was an adequate college player, but doesn't have an NFL arm. But dangit, I'm writing this pick now, so I'll make the pick against the 3.5 line.
Remember, last time we played Chicago, we beat them on a last-second TD pass to Calvin Johnson. Thus the asterisk next to Chicago's 8-3 record. They know they're 7-4, and Detroit knows they're 3-8. The problem in that game for Detroit was an inability to slow down Matt Forte, especially on that one horrendous 80 yard screen pass. The other problem was Jeff Backus trying to block Julius Peppers by himself, which led to Matt Stafford missing 6 games. The good news is that Stanton's mobility is a nice fit for Backus's awfulness ... at least Stanton can run away from Peppers. But that's only if he sees him coming. What separates great QBs from awful QBs is eyes in the back of their head. A guy like Manning, Brees, or even Vick does not get strip-sacked, because they know the timing down to the split-second. They see Peppers coming and step up in the pocket (or run away, in Vick's case) at exactly the right moment. The only way to have that ability is in-game experience. No way Stanton has that. Not even close. So as fast as he might be, he'll never see Peppers coming. And thus you can expect 4+ sacks for Chicago and a fumble or two.
If Detroit's smart, they'll double team Peppers with both Backus and Sims, and chip him with Maurice Morris as well. We really don't want to begin the Z-Rob experiment any sooner than necessary. And we know firsthand the devastation that a Peppers karate chop can have. Dude is pretty strong.
Calvin Johnson won't be guardable by Chicago's overrated secondary, but it won't matter unless Stanton can throw him the ball. And since he doesn't have the arm strength or the accuracy of Shaun Hill (which really isn't saying much), that's probably unlikely. Maybe Calvin will have 4 catches, 50 yards, and a TD. Maybe.
The running game won't exist once again, at least not from the RB position. But Drew Stanton does have one skill that might make this game interesting: he can scramble for first downs. 3rd and 5, 3rd and 7, even 3rd and 10, Stanton isn't afraid to take off towards the marker. He won't slide a yard short like Stafford. He'll go for it. That might keep drives alive and keep this game close. It also might commence Z-Rob's career.
The way Chicago is playing right now, coming off an impressive win against Vick and the Eagles, it's just way too hard to pick against them, especially against the Lions' 3rd string QB. I know Chicago is hugely overrated and I know Jay Cutler is garbage; I'm not jumping on the Chicago bandwagon at all. They're the worst 8-3 team in NFL history, and they're about to be the worst 9-3 team in the NFL history. I'm taking the Bears. Bah.
Ps. I know I didn't talk about the most obvious matchup in this game - Suh and KVB against the Bears' piss-poor pass protection. I felt it was too obvious. It's become almost a given that the Lions will put pressure on the quarterback, have a few sacks, and cause a few bad throws. But until the secondary can play like professionals, it's really not helping us win games. Suh is spectacular, and might have a 2 sack game against Cutler and Martz's moronic gameplan. But I don't trust the CBs to stop speedsters like Knox and Hester. As bad as Cutler is, he's one of the few quarterbacks who can be trusted to occasionally convert a 3rd and 15. Detroit would have a chance in this game if the defensive gameplan was flawless, and the blitzes were well-timed and effective, and the coverage schemes were competent. Unfortunately, I just don't trust Gunther Cunningham.
PS - Worst Case Scenario this week in fantasy. Playing against both Cutler AND Forte in the A league. The good news is a TD for one cancels out a TD for the other (unless it's a screen, in which case I boil some hot water and dump it on my head). The bad news is both guys should have at least 2 TDs without breaking a sweat. Come on Suh, I need you this week!
49ers (4-7) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5
Actual Line: GB by 10
See, this is why you don't want to start the season 0-6. You might stage a nice little comback, but then you have to travel to Lambeau in December. Green Bay wins this game, no doubt.
But isn't 10 points a little too high for a game that's supposed to by 29 degrees and snowy? It's going to be tough for even Aaron Rodgers to score in the snow without a running game. And San Fran has come confidence after the Monday night blowout. So they might keep it close for a while, even without Frank Gore. I see this game somewhere in the range of Packers 23, Niners 17. I'll take San Fran**.
Jaguars (6-5) @ Titans (5-6)
Predicted Line: TEN by 1.5
Actual Line: TEN by 2
Kerry Collins is listed as day-to-day with a calf injury, but after seeing the trainwreck named Rusty Smith last week you can bet that Jeff Fisher will put Collins out there even if he can't walk. Does a 37 year old quarterback even need calves anyway? That, along with the fact that nobody trusts the Jaguars, is why Tennessee is favored despite getting blanked last week.
I have absolutely no idea what to do for this game. The AFC South is a crapshoot. Probly just take the home team.
Denver (3-8) @ KC (7-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 6.5
Actual Line: KC by 9.5
This is the first line (other than the bad Lions line which doesn't account for Hill's injury) that I've missed by more than 1 point. This line is way too high. Matt Cassel shouldn't be giving 10 points to anybody. The Chiefs might cover, but I'd rather take the points. Especially with Orton leading the comeback attempt.
Browns (4-7) @ Miami (6-5)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4
Actual Line: MIA by 4.5
My brain says: Delhomme on the road! Take Miami!
But then my brain also says: Peyton Hillis is completely unstoppable!! Take Cleveland!
I am completely conflicted. What is more of a factor, Hillis's goodness or Delhomme's badness? I guess I'd have to say Delhomme's badness. I'll take Miami and hope Brandon Marshall plays. He should.
Bills (2-9) @ Vikings (4-7)
Predicted Line: MIN by 5.5
Actual Line: MIN by 5.5
This line is predictably low because AP is a gametime decision with a sprained ankle. But I personally think he'll play. And Buffalo's defense gave up 188 yards to Rashard Mendenhall last week, so even if AP sits out Toby Gerhard should run without much resistance. But like I said, I think AP will play, and thus, I like the Vikings in a big win. Especially because Buffalo is probably wore out after the heartbreaking loss to Pittsburgh last week in OT. This game has Vikings all over it. I might even make it the Lock of the Week. Yeah, I think I will.
Redskins (5-6) @ Giants (7-4)
Predicted Line: NYG by 7
Actual Line: NYG by 7
Both of these teams are quite awful right now. New York's high powered offense has become a lot less exciting without Nicks and Steve Smith. Mario Manningham should have had a bonkers week against Jacksonville last week, but he only had, what, 60 yards? I also expected a lot from new WR2 Derek Hagan, and he was invisible. Tight end Kevin Boss has suddenly become one of Eli's favorite targets, and he's as slow as any tight end I've ever seen. Add in the fumbling issues and injuries to the offensive line ... and I'm not a big fan of the Giants offense. Which is why I'm taking the Redskins, who I also don't like at all right now. They have bad receivers, a bad running game, and no identity on offense. Not to mention a bad offensive line, and a coach who seems to hate half of his players for no apparent reason. I hate both of these teams. So I expect a sloppy game and 7 points is probably too high.
Raiders (5-6) @ Chargers (6-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 10.5
Actual Line: SD by 13
Knew this line would be big, but didn't think it would be two-touchdowns big. That's asking a lot for an inconsistent San Diego team with a tremendously overrated defense. I don't trust them to stop McFadden or the big-play receivers in Oakland. Jacoby Ford has quickly made a name for himself as a 2 catches for 75 yards kind of guy. If this line were SD by 10 or 11, I'd sign up. But 13 is a bit too high. I'll go with Oakland in a 35-24 losing effort.
Carolina (1-10) @ Seahawks (5-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 6
Actual Line: SEA by 6
That's the fourth line I've guessed exactly.
Upset of the Week time. I actually like Carolina to win this game straight up, for a few different reasons.
1) Seattle is terrible. They can't run the ball (Marshawn Lynch is a joke; his YPC is a measly 3.1), they can't protect the passer, and Hasselbeck doesn't have any decent receivers right now. Whenever an injury to Mike Williams is severely crippling your offense, you know your team is pathetic. And their defense has been completely unable to stop the run ever since Colin Cole and Red Bryant got hurt about 5 weeks ago. (They were ranked 5th at stopping the run, since then they've fallen to 20th.) Their secondary has been terrible all year (they rank 30th) and in 3 of their last 4 games, Seattle has failed to record a sack. So yeah, Pete Carroll's squad is much worse than their 5-6 record.
2) Carolina isn't as bad as their 1-10 record indicates. Well, okay maybe they are. But last week they ran the ball for 153 yards against a pretty solid Browns defense. Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart were able to put Claussen in all kinds of 3rd and short situations, and despite having no NFL-caliber receivers, he played decently and almost rallied to win.
3) Seattle's home-field advantage isn't what it used to be. And typically it's unwise to pick an east-coast team traveling West , but John Fox has been an exception: he's 7-2 ATS on the west coast as head coach of the Panthers.
4) Did I mention that Seattle is terrible? They should in no way be 6 point favorites, ever. If you swapped these teams divisions and schedules, right now Carolina would be 5-6 and Seattle would be 1-10. They are equally talented. I'm taking Carolina to win straight up, and if all they do is cover the 6 point spread I'll at least get my Upset pick right.
Rams (5-6) @ Cardinals (3-8)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 3
Make that five lines picked precisely. Although this one was easy.
Rams are playing great right now, Cards are playing awful, but nobody wants to give a rookie QB more than a field goal on the road. This is a crappy situation for Bradford. If he loses this game, it's a big step backwards for his career, his reputation, and his ROY chances. People will question and doubt him and say "Come on, you can't even beat the CARDINALS?"
But if the Rams win, nobody will be impressed. They just beat a terrible team. Big deal.
It's sort of like the Lions recent game against the Bills. Nothing to gain, but everything to lose. The best thing Bradford can do is just play like he's been playing, and get the win.
And on the other side ...wait, what? I haven't said anything yet about Derek Anderson's unintentionally hilarious tirade after the MNF blowout? In case you didn't see it, Anderson was seen laughing on the sideline with a lineman during the blowout, and was asked about it by a reporter in the postgame conference. Here's Anderson's now-legendary reaction. And here's a parody video that was made the next day. Classic. And here's basketball star Dwight Howard making fun of Anderson. And this one is an absolute MUST-WATCH. I don't have anything else to add. Those videos speak for themselves. YouTube is awesome.
The thing that outrages me isn't that Anderson was laughing on the sideline. Whatever. It's a 3 hour game and who knows what he was laughing about. I'm sure it wasn't "Haha, I suck, I love losing." Probably an inside joke or making fun of a coach or something. Who knows.
People are saying, "Yeah, but you would never catch Tom Brady laughing on the sideline during a blowout loss." Very true. That's a valid point, and probably part of the reason why Brady is a champion and Anderson is not. But still, the laughter isn't what outrages me. It's the fact that Anderson is still allowed to start at quarterback for the Cardinals.
He's lost 5 straight as a starter, and in 8 starts this season his QB rating hasn't once exceeded 92. It's a dreary 68.2 for the season. And his completion percentage, 52.8%, is one of the worst I've ever seen. He's like a mix between Jake Delhomme's interceptions and JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy with a dash of David Carr's willingness to get sacked. But he has one thing none of those guys had. Larry Fitzgerald. And a Hall of Famer in Alan Faneca on the offensive line. So come one. Take Anderson out of there and see what you've got with the young QBs Max Hall and John Skelton. We've seen Hall stink this year (though he showed promise in beating the Saints) and for all we know, John Skelton might be okay. At least give him a chance you numskulls.
I know the Rams have been absymal on the road for the past 5 years or so, and it's tough to pick them as a road favorite covering 3 points. But with apologies to Carolina and Buffalo, I think Arizona is the NFL's worst team right now. So I've got to pick the Rams.
Cowboys (3-8) @ Colts (6-5)
Predicted Line: IND by 7.5
Actual Line: IND by 5
Ha.
This line makes me giggle. I'll take Indy and if I could I'd gladly put down a couple hundred dollars. I'm also changing this to my Lock of the week, instead of Minnesota. How can the oddsmakers say the Colts are only TWO points better than the Cowboys?? (remember, football betting 101 -homefield accounts for 3 points) This line is just absurd. Peyton Manning losing a third straight game, especially when the playoffs are on the line? Austin Collie should be back, Addai might be back, and Dez Bryant is hurt for the Cowboys. And do I need to remind you who the Cowboys quarterback is? Jon Kitna! Why is this line only 5 points?! What am I missing???
... Oh yeah, the Colts can't run the ball, they can't protect Manning, Dallas has DeMarcus Ware, and the Cowboys are finally playing up to their potential now that Wade is gone. Hmm. Plus Peyton has thrown 7 picks in the last 2 games. But I'm willing to say that was a fluke and he gets back on track. He's not the greatest QB ever for no reason.
Colts by 5. Lock of the Week. My prediction: Colts 30, Cowboys 20.
Falcons (9-2) @ Bucs (7-4)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3
Actual Line: ATL by 3
Picking the line here is the same situation as the Rams @ Cards game. The road team is clearly the better team, but it shouldn't be a blowout. That's almost always a line of 3. Don't look now but I've picked six of these lines to the exact point.
This game is huge for Tampa Bay, who wants to prove that they belong with the big boys. I've no doubt that Josh Freeman belongs (or will belong someday), but I have my doubts about the Tampa defense and the Tampa running game.
LeGarette Blount had a nice little streak going (nice enough that I was able to swap him straight up for Reggie Wayne, an absolute steal for me), but I think he's regressing into the immature rookie that he is. Plus that offensive line is below average, which is putting it mildly.
Aqib Talib is proving to be a stud at cornerback, but he's got his hands full with Roddy White. Last time these squads met White had a season-low 49 yards. Obviously you can't bench White in fantasy, but expect a less-than-amazing game from him and a better-than-average game from Tony Gonzalez.
The Bucs' front 7 really has no chance against Michael Turner. They gave up 107 yards and 2 TDs in their previous matchup, and rank dead last in YPC defense. Turner has a cake matchup. He'll have to carry the team, because as I've said before, Matt Ryan is not the same QB on the road. He struggles in outdoor games, which is weird because he played his college ball outdors in the northeast.
Like I said, this game is huge for Tampa Bay. It will make-or-break their playoff hopes. But, don't make the mistake of believing that this game is less meaningful for Atlanta, or that they'll be flat. They desperately need each remaining win to secure homefield throughout the playoffs, and considering Ryan's ridiculous 19-1 record at home, that's something they need more than any other team.
86% of the betting action is on Atlanta, which proves that nobody is buying into Tampa as a real team yet. I wish this line were 1 point or 2 lower, because I do think Atlanta probably wins. But I know Freeman will keep it close, and with a gun to my head I'd take the Bucs to cover. This is their biggest home game in years. Why are people always sticking guns to my head when I make my picks?!
Steelers (8-3) @ Ravens (8-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAL by 3
Sometimes picking the line is too easy. Same record, equal teams, the home team will be favored by 3. That's seven exact lines.
This is being hyped as the Game of the Week because it will dictate the winner of the AFC North. But I think it should be mentioned that both of these teams are already IN the playoffs. The loser of this game will be earning one Wildcard, while the other goes to the Jets-Pats loser. So while this is a huge game, it's not a playoff-determining game. Why not? Because both teams still have Cleveland and Cincinnati remaining on the schedule, so they'll both win at least 10 games, and that'll be enough for the playoffs in the AFC because the Colts and Chargers are going to win their divisions with 9-7 records. My guess is the winner of this game finishes 12-4 and the loser goes 11-5.
OK. Onto the actual game.
Baltimore won the previous matchup 17-14 at Heinz Field, but that game featured Charlie Batch instead of Rapelisberger, which is obviously huge. But that game was also in Pittsburgh, and this one is in Baltimore. Also huge.
We've learned a lot since week 4; Rashard Mendenhall is the unquestioned centerpiece of the Pittsburgh offense; Ray Rice is more dangerous as a receiver than a runner; injuries to the offensive line have hurt both teams, especially Pittsburgh; Baltimore's defense is overrated against the run, giving up 101 yards per game and 4.2 YPC, compared to 64 yards per game and 3.0 YPC for Pittsburgh's historically good run defense; Pittsburgh secretly stinks at defending the pass, ranking 22nd in terms of passing yards allowed and 23rd in completion percentage allowed. Baltimore's pass defense is actually much better, especially since Ed Reed returned from the PUP list. They ranked 7th and 9th in the two aforementioned statistics, respectively. But one of the key differences in these defenses is pass rush; Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the NFL with 32, while Baltimore's 19 sacks rank 28th best.
This should obviously be another low-scoring affair, and thus it makes sense to take the points and take Pittsburgh. Interesting fact: since the Roethlisberger-Flacco era began 3 years ago, this game has been decided by 4 or less points in 5 of 7 matchups. It's never been more than a 10 point game. I think that trend will continue, and I like the point. But I actually think the Steelers will win outright. But if they lose, it'll be by 3 points or less. Gimme dem Stellers en geddaff ma cotch. (Pittsburgh translation: Give me them Steelers, and get off my couch)
Jets (9-2) @ Patriots (9-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 3.5
Blast! If I had got that line exactly I would have picked 8 lines- HALF the games - exactly right. That would have been an accomplishment in itself.
But I should have smelled something fishy; everybody knows the Pats are an elite team and the Jets are a 9-2 team masquareding as elite but they have tons and tons of flaws. Starting with their quarterback Mark Sanchez, and his Derek Anderson-esque 55% completion percentage. And their washed up, overrated running back. And their vastly overrated pass defense which only ranks 12th best in the NFL, even though they talk about themselves like they're the 85 Bears.
But the most important distinction between these teams comes in the schedules. Listen to this and prepare to be blown away:
The Jets have beaten only ONE playoff team this season, and that was New England, week 2. Their other 8 wins are against Miami, Buffalo, Minnesota, Denver (because of a bad pass interference call), Detroit (because Suh missed an extra point and Detroit was unbelievably stupid), Cleveland (because the Browns fumbled in field goal range in OT), Houston (because the Texans blew a 16 point lead in the 4th quarter), and Cincinnati (because they stink). When they played elite defenses (Baltimore, Green Bay) they scored an average of less than 5 points per game. What's going to happen in the playoffs when they face either Baltimore or Pittsburgh?
The Pats, on the other hand, have beaten the four best teams in the AFC: Indy, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and San Diego. If you swap these teams' schedules, New England is 10-1 and the Jets are 6-5. No doubt in my mind. So, even if the Jets win this game, I'll still have no problem saying that New England is the better team.
So I am picking the Pats to win, and not just by 3; I think they'll win by 27. And here's why:
1) The last three times Belichick lost a divisional game and then faced that same team later on in the season, he won by 31, 20, and 17 points. He holds grudges. Especially against attention-hogging idiots like Rex Ryan. He'll run up the score and expose every weakness the Jets have.
2) Tom Brady knows how important this game is. The winner gets homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and a first round bye. The loser has to play either Manning or Rivers in the first round. The difference between Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez is like the difference between Kobe Bryant and Troy Murphy. It's embarassing.
This is the biggest regular season game of the year. And it's going to be all Pats.
That's all I got. Sorry these picks are later than usual. Go Lions.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
FINALLY
A Republican who came out and said what needs to be said.
Here's the article: Palin Must Be Stopped.
If you search the word "finally" under the 326 comments, you will yield 52 results. I'm sure it won't take the Twitter Queen more than 24 hours to bash Mr. Scarborough. But hopefully Republicans will rally around his sentiment and give the GOP a fighting chance in 2012.
Here's the article: Palin Must Be Stopped.
If you search the word "finally" under the 326 comments, you will yield 52 results. I'm sure it won't take the Twitter Queen more than 24 hours to bash Mr. Scarborough. But hopefully Republicans will rally around his sentiment and give the GOP a fighting chance in 2012.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Week 12 Wrap Up and a Discussion on the Ethics of Fantasy Football
Yikes.
What a brutal week 12.
I started Chris Johnson in both leagues and the 2,000 yard man rushed for a whopping 7 yards. That's just unthinkably awful. The worst part is, in the A League I traded Peyton Hillis straight up for CJ. Hillis had 190 yards and 3 TDs. Worst trade EVER. But amazingly, I still have a chance to win in the A League (If Gore stays under 21 points) and that's largely due to a scandalous issue which I'll address in a moment. First, on to the picks:
Lions 24, Pats 45
No surprise here. Got the pick. Although, believe it or not, Detroit led 17-10 at the half. Then they allowed 35 points in 30 minutes. I mean ... what can you say? Detroit played a near-perfect first half (only 2 penalties, no turnovers) but then ran out of gas after the half. How does a team lose focus midway through a home game on national TV when they're winning by 7 against one of the best teams in the NFL? That's got to be coaching, right?
It's not like I expected to win. Brady is Brady, and he did his thing, and he got the win. But I didn't think he would make it look so effortless. The Lions' defense went from stout to shit almost immediately after the half. That was the difference. No pass rush, and Alphonso Smith getting embarrassed over and over and over.
One of my favorite parts of the game was the interview with The Rock. When they asked him about the game, he basically said that Detroit is better than their record indicates (no duh) and that they have some good building blocks such as Suh and Calvin (no, really?!). That prompted Phil Sims to say "Wow, that's some great analysization." Which prompted me to say: "You mean analysis you moron?" That made even my father-in-law laugh.
Ugh. What a painful second half. Jim Schwartz isn't in any danger of losing his job, but he is in danger of losing the fans' confidence. Which means his job could be gone after 2011 if we don't win at least 7 games.
Mlive's Tom Kowalski summed up Jim Schwartz pretty well. He basically says that any guy can stand on the sidelines, yell at the refs, look angry, throw the red flag in obvious situations, and scream obscenities after penalties. Anyone could do that. I could do that. But Schwartz doesn't call the offensive plays (Linehan does) nor does he call the defensive plays (Cunningham does), so what is Jim Schwartz's role as head coach? Just to stand there and look pissed off? What does he bring that makes him truly worthy of his salary?
If he's not going to call the plays, he should be the guy responsible for motivating, focusing, and leading the players. He should be inspiring when he needs to be inspiring and harsh when he needs to be harsh; and he should know the difference. So far, I don't think he has any of those skills. He's a football man, and better suited as a defensive coordinator. He has done nothing to change the culture of losing. He's talked about it a lot, but talk isn't translating to wins.
All that to say - these next 5 games are important. I know we aren't going to the playoffs, but 5-11 looks a whole lot better than 2-14. Those wins will inspire the players and the fans to believe in Schwartz, believe in the Lions, and believe in 2011. It isn't going to be easy. We've got Chicago next week, then Green Bay, then @ Tampa, @ Miami, and then home for Minnesota. Each of those games is against a team fighting for the playoffs. They have something to play for, and we do not. It's up to Schwartz to inspire the team and win at least 3 of those games.
That could make all the difference between Schwartz coaching this team in 2012 or starting the rebuilding process all over.
Saints 30, Cowboys 27
Saints were favored by 3.5, so I missed this pick by half a point. Blast!
But really, I'm lucky they won at all. If you watched this game, you know Dallas should have won and in fact would have won if Roy Williams had a brain. With 3 minutes left, Roy caught a pass at midfield and ran all the way to the Saints 11 yard line. If at any point he just slid to the ground, the Cowboys were in field goal range, up by 4, with 3 minutes left and the Saints had just 1 timeout. Three kneeldowns later and then a 30 yard field goal, and the Cowboys are up by 7, kicking off to the timeout-less Saints with 1:10 remaining. Game essentially over. Instead, Roy stupidly held the ball in one hand, was stripped from behind, and Drew Brees promptly led the comeback. Saints finally clinched the win when Dallas missed a 59 yard kick. Great game.
Afterwards, Roy Williams wasn't done being stupid. He said the thought of sliding to the ground crossed his mind, but quote: "going down isn't in my repertoire." Really you jackass? Is winning games in your repertoire? Apparently not. Only an arrogant idiot would defend their decision to keep running in that situation, when going down clearly gives Dallas the win. He lost the game for his 52 teammates and millions of fans, and didn't apologize; instead he used it as an opportunity to promote his greatness and ferocity.What an absolute buffoon. No words for how stupid that man is.
Jets 26, Bengals 10
Pretty sure the Jets remaining schedule is: Bills, Panthers, Bills, Panthers, Panthers, Grand Valley, Panthers, and my old middle school. Seriously. Have they played an actual team in the past 2 months?
Falcons 20, Pack 17
Another game I missed by half a point. Matt Ryan's home dominance continues.
Green Bay should have won, but failed to convert on 3rd and 1 three seperate times. Aaron Rodgers ran the ball for 51 yards. Atlanta now has the fast track for homefield in the playoffs.
Steelers 19, Buffalo 16 - OT
UGGH. What a frustrating game for so many reasons.
Firstly, I missed the pick badly.
Secondly, I had to spend the past 5 days in the dumbest city in America sleeping on an air mattress with a bunch of nincompoop Steelers fans who say things like "Them Stellers ergunna pond um and pot um dawn air"
(Translation: The Steelers are going to pound them and put them down there.")
Thirdly, the Bills should have won. Multiple times. Including a dropped touchdown pass in overtime. So frustrating.
So if all the "elite teams," such as New England, Pittsburgh and the Jets, are struggling to beat cellar-dwellers like Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo on a regular basis, that tells us two things:
1) The elite teams aren't all that good.
2) The bad teams aren't as bad as we think.
Parity is alive and well in the NFL. Just check out this incredible Circle of Parity. Every team in the NFL has beat a team which has beat a team which has beat a team all the way around. The most stunning thing about that circle - how in the world did Baltimore lose to Cincinnati?!
Browns 24, Panthers 23
People have been comparing Peyton Hillis to Mike Alstott all season. You know what. That's an insult to Hillis. His current season (1,300 yards, 13 TDs) is MUCH better than any season Alstott ever had (his best was 900 yards and 11 TDs). And Hillis still has five games to play. Alstott has the advantage in longevity and is probably the best fullback in NFL history. But Hillis is the better rusher, the better receiver, and is having a far better season than Alstott ever had.
But that leads me to another point. Peyton Hillis isn't really a running back. He's not. He's a fullback who gets 20 carries and 5 catches a game. He's got only 2 runs all season of more than 25 yards. He's a power back with very limited speed. And yet he runs for 4.5 YPC and a stunning 9 YPR. Why was Denver willing to trade Hillis this offseason for third-string QB Brady Quinn? Because they didn't think they were trading a franchise running back; they thought he was a fullback, which is in fact what he is. The best dang fullback of the past decade.
It should be noted, probably extensively, that Hillis would not be having his monster season without a certain left tackle named Joe Thomas. Take Thomas off the Browns, and Hillis's production gets cut in half.
Texans 20, Titans 0
Wow. I didn't expect much from Rusty Smith, but seriously? And Chris Johnson, are you kidding me? I'm going to chalk this game up as a new phenomenon called The Randy Moss Effect. It goes like this:
A crazy diva receiver joins the team, and all of a sudden all hell breaks loose. The sometimes-troubled QB is throwing his pads into the stands, then apologetically texting the coach who refuses to accept his apology and tells him to "be a man", and then the star running back is suddenly useless, and the offense gets shut out by the league's worst defense, and the QB is named Rusty and the cornerback gets in a fistfight with an opposing receiver. All of those things can be blamed directly on Randy Moss. And probably Brett Favre. Glad I finally was able to trade Moss just days before the deadline.
Week 12 Picks: 8-8
Overall: 93-79-4
Upset: 8-5
Lock: 7-5-1
Lions: 5-6
That's all for now. Go Lions.
What a brutal week 12.
I started Chris Johnson in both leagues and the 2,000 yard man rushed for a whopping 7 yards. That's just unthinkably awful. The worst part is, in the A League I traded Peyton Hillis straight up for CJ. Hillis had 190 yards and 3 TDs. Worst trade EVER. But amazingly, I still have a chance to win in the A League (If Gore stays under 21 points) and that's largely due to a scandalous issue which I'll address in a moment. First, on to the picks:
Lions 24, Pats 45
No surprise here. Got the pick. Although, believe it or not, Detroit led 17-10 at the half. Then they allowed 35 points in 30 minutes. I mean ... what can you say? Detroit played a near-perfect first half (only 2 penalties, no turnovers) but then ran out of gas after the half. How does a team lose focus midway through a home game on national TV when they're winning by 7 against one of the best teams in the NFL? That's got to be coaching, right?
It's not like I expected to win. Brady is Brady, and he did his thing, and he got the win. But I didn't think he would make it look so effortless. The Lions' defense went from stout to shit almost immediately after the half. That was the difference. No pass rush, and Alphonso Smith getting embarrassed over and over and over.
One of my favorite parts of the game was the interview with The Rock. When they asked him about the game, he basically said that Detroit is better than their record indicates (no duh) and that they have some good building blocks such as Suh and Calvin (no, really?!). That prompted Phil Sims to say "Wow, that's some great analysization." Which prompted me to say: "You mean analysis you moron?" That made even my father-in-law laugh.
Ugh. What a painful second half. Jim Schwartz isn't in any danger of losing his job, but he is in danger of losing the fans' confidence. Which means his job could be gone after 2011 if we don't win at least 7 games.
Mlive's Tom Kowalski summed up Jim Schwartz pretty well. He basically says that any guy can stand on the sidelines, yell at the refs, look angry, throw the red flag in obvious situations, and scream obscenities after penalties. Anyone could do that. I could do that. But Schwartz doesn't call the offensive plays (Linehan does) nor does he call the defensive plays (Cunningham does), so what is Jim Schwartz's role as head coach? Just to stand there and look pissed off? What does he bring that makes him truly worthy of his salary?
If he's not going to call the plays, he should be the guy responsible for motivating, focusing, and leading the players. He should be inspiring when he needs to be inspiring and harsh when he needs to be harsh; and he should know the difference. So far, I don't think he has any of those skills. He's a football man, and better suited as a defensive coordinator. He has done nothing to change the culture of losing. He's talked about it a lot, but talk isn't translating to wins.
All that to say - these next 5 games are important. I know we aren't going to the playoffs, but 5-11 looks a whole lot better than 2-14. Those wins will inspire the players and the fans to believe in Schwartz, believe in the Lions, and believe in 2011. It isn't going to be easy. We've got Chicago next week, then Green Bay, then @ Tampa, @ Miami, and then home for Minnesota. Each of those games is against a team fighting for the playoffs. They have something to play for, and we do not. It's up to Schwartz to inspire the team and win at least 3 of those games.
That could make all the difference between Schwartz coaching this team in 2012 or starting the rebuilding process all over.
Saints 30, Cowboys 27
Saints were favored by 3.5, so I missed this pick by half a point. Blast!
But really, I'm lucky they won at all. If you watched this game, you know Dallas should have won and in fact would have won if Roy Williams had a brain. With 3 minutes left, Roy caught a pass at midfield and ran all the way to the Saints 11 yard line. If at any point he just slid to the ground, the Cowboys were in field goal range, up by 4, with 3 minutes left and the Saints had just 1 timeout. Three kneeldowns later and then a 30 yard field goal, and the Cowboys are up by 7, kicking off to the timeout-less Saints with 1:10 remaining. Game essentially over. Instead, Roy stupidly held the ball in one hand, was stripped from behind, and Drew Brees promptly led the comeback. Saints finally clinched the win when Dallas missed a 59 yard kick. Great game.
Afterwards, Roy Williams wasn't done being stupid. He said the thought of sliding to the ground crossed his mind, but quote: "going down isn't in my repertoire." Really you jackass? Is winning games in your repertoire? Apparently not. Only an arrogant idiot would defend their decision to keep running in that situation, when going down clearly gives Dallas the win. He lost the game for his 52 teammates and millions of fans, and didn't apologize; instead he used it as an opportunity to promote his greatness and ferocity.What an absolute buffoon. No words for how stupid that man is.
Jets 26, Bengals 10
Pretty sure the Jets remaining schedule is: Bills, Panthers, Bills, Panthers, Panthers, Grand Valley, Panthers, and my old middle school. Seriously. Have they played an actual team in the past 2 months?
Falcons 20, Pack 17
Another game I missed by half a point. Matt Ryan's home dominance continues.
Green Bay should have won, but failed to convert on 3rd and 1 three seperate times. Aaron Rodgers ran the ball for 51 yards. Atlanta now has the fast track for homefield in the playoffs.
Steelers 19, Buffalo 16 - OT
UGGH. What a frustrating game for so many reasons.
Firstly, I missed the pick badly.
Secondly, I had to spend the past 5 days in the dumbest city in America sleeping on an air mattress with a bunch of nincompoop Steelers fans who say things like "Them Stellers ergunna pond um and pot um dawn air"
(Translation: The Steelers are going to pound them and put them down there.")
Thirdly, the Bills should have won. Multiple times. Including a dropped touchdown pass in overtime. So frustrating.
So if all the "elite teams," such as New England, Pittsburgh and the Jets, are struggling to beat cellar-dwellers like Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo on a regular basis, that tells us two things:
1) The elite teams aren't all that good.
2) The bad teams aren't as bad as we think.
Parity is alive and well in the NFL. Just check out this incredible Circle of Parity. Every team in the NFL has beat a team which has beat a team which has beat a team all the way around. The most stunning thing about that circle - how in the world did Baltimore lose to Cincinnati?!
Browns 24, Panthers 23
People have been comparing Peyton Hillis to Mike Alstott all season. You know what. That's an insult to Hillis. His current season (1,300 yards, 13 TDs) is MUCH better than any season Alstott ever had (his best was 900 yards and 11 TDs). And Hillis still has five games to play. Alstott has the advantage in longevity and is probably the best fullback in NFL history. But Hillis is the better rusher, the better receiver, and is having a far better season than Alstott ever had.
But that leads me to another point. Peyton Hillis isn't really a running back. He's not. He's a fullback who gets 20 carries and 5 catches a game. He's got only 2 runs all season of more than 25 yards. He's a power back with very limited speed. And yet he runs for 4.5 YPC and a stunning 9 YPR. Why was Denver willing to trade Hillis this offseason for third-string QB Brady Quinn? Because they didn't think they were trading a franchise running back; they thought he was a fullback, which is in fact what he is. The best dang fullback of the past decade.
It should be noted, probably extensively, that Hillis would not be having his monster season without a certain left tackle named Joe Thomas. Take Thomas off the Browns, and Hillis's production gets cut in half.
Texans 20, Titans 0
Wow. I didn't expect much from Rusty Smith, but seriously? And Chris Johnson, are you kidding me? I'm going to chalk this game up as a new phenomenon called The Randy Moss Effect. It goes like this:
A crazy diva receiver joins the team, and all of a sudden all hell breaks loose. The sometimes-troubled QB is throwing his pads into the stands, then apologetically texting the coach who refuses to accept his apology and tells him to "be a man", and then the star running back is suddenly useless, and the offense gets shut out by the league's worst defense, and the QB is named Rusty and the cornerback gets in a fistfight with an opposing receiver. All of those things can be blamed directly on Randy Moss. And probably Brett Favre. Glad I finally was able to trade Moss just days before the deadline.
Giants 24, Jags 20
When I heard that New York would be without 3 starting offensive lineman, I almost changed my pick. Turns out I should have, because the Giants didn't cover the 7.5 spread. But they did win outright, which shows how overrated and un-playoff-worthy the Jaguars are.
For the fourth game in a row, Eli Manning did not get sacked. Remarkable.
Vikings 17, Redskins 13
Blah blah blah Favre Favre McNabb McNabb Drama drama Blah blah
I just realized ... Brett Favre is the Sarah Palin of football. Everyone wants him to just go away.
The only noteworthy story from this game was Adrian Peterson's ankle injury. Will he miss next week? It's probably worth noting that in the A League I just traded Moreno, Moss and Mike Williams (SEA) for Peterson. If this injury ends up ruining my season I might eat a handful of paperclips.
Oh, the other somewhat meaningful story from this game. Mike Shanahan, the master of pissing off fantasy owners, started running back Keiland Williams in this game, who I contemplated starting over Ben Jarvus Green Ellis. But after 3 carries, he pulled an UN-injured Williams from the game and gave the rest of the handoffs to James Davis. W H O ?
On behalf of fantasy owners everywhere, we hate you Mike Shanahan. And I didn't even play Williams. I just hate you on principle.
Fins 33, Raidahs 17
So much for that Oakland playoff run.
Darren McFadden had 8 carries for 2 yards. Just 4 weeks ago, people were calling him the best running back in football. It's amazing how people get so overzealous. I'm sure I've never done that. Miami continues to beat mediocre teams. They might win their next 4 games (Browns, Jets, Lions, Bills) and end up sneaking into the playoffs if New England rests the starters week 17. It's going to come down to the Jets-Dolphins game in 2 weeks. That's a big game.
Chiefs 42, Seahawks 24
Hmm ... can't figure out either of these teams at all. Is KC actually good? Or can they only beat bad teams? Is Seattle bad? Or are they worse than bad? I thought they were supposed to be competitive at home?
Now that Chris Johnson appears to be a numskull and Adrian Peterson is injured and suffering from BrettFavreitus, can we safely call Jamaal Charles the best running back alive? I mean, strictly talent-wise. He shares carries with Thomas Jones (which is smart, because they're saving Charles's legs for a hopeful playoff run) and yet has the second most rushing yards in the NFL now, after Sunday's whopping 173 yards on just 22 carries. His YPC (6.3) is absoluetly sick. And it's no fluke - last year his 5.9 led the NFL. He's also a pass-catching maniac with 32 catches for 359 yards this season. The best barometer of a running back's greatness is the YPC statistic.
Jim Brown - 5.2
Barry Sanders - 5.0
Adrian Peterson - 4.9
As opposed to overrated guys like:
Thurman Thomas - 4.2
Emmitt Smith - 4.2
LaDanian Tomlinson - 4.3
For his career, Jamaal Charles currently has a YPC of 6.1. And don't forget, KC doesn't have a good offensive line or a great passing game. Well, except for Dwayne Bowe who has now caught 7 TDs and 465 yards in his past three games. Only 21 wide receivers have scored more fantasy points THIS SEASON than Bowe has scored over the past THREE WEEKS. That might be the stat of the week.
Ravens 17, Bucs 10
My only good beat of the week. I picked the Bucs to cover the 7.5 spread and they did. Barely.
Tampa did a great job to hold Baltimore to 17 points (none in the second half) but couldn't get their offense moving. Mike Williams was held to just 20 yards. His Rookie of the Year stock takes a hit. Speaking of which, Dez Bryant had zero catches. So Sam Bradford's first place status is a little more secure. Speaking of which ...
Rams 36, Broncos 33
One of my better picks this week. It was tempting to take Denver by 4 but I trusted the rookie to win a much needed game on the road. And he gutted it out. Despite having literally no NFL-caliber receivers and falling below 10-0 early, Bradford went 22 for 37 for 308 yards and 3 TDs. He threw touchdown passes to guys named Billy Bajema and Michael Hoomanawanui. No joke.
I don't care how bad the defense is, when you put up a QB rating of 113 on the road as a rookie ... that's pretty dang impressive. Bradford's passer rating is now at 82. I'm not even going to bring up Stafford's career 67.1 rating ...
Another great fantasy game for Orton, Lloyd and Moreno, but Denver's defense just can't get it done. And Josh McDaniels, who I hated, and then tried to forgive after one of his players died, has now been fined $50,000 for cheating. Again. Remember, he was the offensive coordinator for New England during Spygate I. Now he's the leader of Spygate II. Though he claims he "had no idea." Ha. Don't be surprised if this is his last season in the NFL. He's been caught cheating twice (I'm OK with the cheating, but don't be stupid enough to get caught ... especially not twice) and is 5-16 in his last 21 games. That's almost as bad as Jim Schwartz!
Oh by the way, the Rams are tied for the division lead.
Chicago 31, Eagles 26
Yeah, so I failed miserably on my Lock of the Week. Chicago won. The defense contained Michael Vick, and forced his first interception of the season. Good for them. Julius Peppers is amazing. But I've gotta say - Chicago is definitely the worst 8-3 team in the history of the NFL.
Chargers 36, Colts 14
Watched this game from start to finish, and was shell-shocked. Not even sure what shell-shocked means, but I know I was it.
Let me set the scene for you - I was leading by about 10 going into this game, and I have Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne. My opponent has Rivers, and Frank Gore on Monday. If I win, I clinch the division, a playoff spot, and a shot at $300. If I lose, I'm tied with my opponent, and that's not an acceptable scenario. So I watched this entire game on the edge of my couch, shaking nervously every time Rivers dropped back to pass. And despite Manning's 4 interceptions and Wayne's 3 dropped passes (two of which were 40+ yards), I am leading by 21 going into tonight. Still not confident, but hopeful. Why? Because Phillip Rivers, the PR Machine, the potential league MVP, the winner of 4 straight games, was reduced to a game manager. He didn't throw a single touchdown pass. Let me say again - Rivers did not throw one TD pass. Despite 36 points for the Bolts. It was amazing. Amazingly awesome.
What happened was smart coaching and lucky defense. Smart coaching because every time the Chargers got the ball, they ran as much time as possible off the clock. Mike Tolbert was effective running through the middle and converting first downs, and Indy couldn't tackle him. Chris Collinsworth almost had a hernia talking about fullback Jacob Hester who was laying down some sick blocks and opening up holes for Tolbert, who ended up rumbling for 103 yards on 26 carries. Rivers only threw 23 passes (though he completed 83% of them) and passed for just 185 yards, severely crippling his chance of breaking Dan Marino's single season yardage record. He was on pace to smash it. Now he's on pace to miss it by 160 yards.
But the story of the game, aside from San Diego dominating time of possession 35 minutes to 24, was the Chargers defense. They got pressure on Peyton over and over, dominating the offensive line and reducing the running game to a joke. Although part of that should be blamed on Donald Brown, who made the absolute least of his 11 carries. He looked like the least inspired running back I've ever seen. Just took 3 steps into some lineman's back and fell down. He was awful. If not for an 8 yard run in garbage time he would have run 10 times for 16 yards.
Being constantly pressured, Manning was forced to throw tough passes in a hurry, and that led to two costly interceptions. The over two interceptions were not his fault - one was a horribly missed pass interference call (Eric Weddle pushed down Reggie Wayne, then caught the pick, the looked around for an inevitable flag, was shocked that he didn't see one, ran the ball into the end zone, and instead of celebrating he turned around and looked everywhere for a flag and couldn't believe his luck. The Indy crowd booed for about 15 minutes straight after this egregious play which truly changed the game and probably cost Indy a win. The moral of the story - coaches should probably be allowed to challenge non-penalty calls in obvious situations) and the other interception was a desperation heave with 1 minute to play in a 22 point game - not sure why Manning threw that ball or why he was on the field in the first place. So all that to say ... Indy lost badly, but I'm not giving up on them come playoff time. They'll be okay. They just need to figure out the offensive line and get Joseph Addai healthy. And what the heck is up with Reggie Wayne's hands. He had 5 catches for 42 yards but would have had 8 catches for 150 yards if he didn't let the ball bounce off his hands. Peyton was visibly upset with him and rightfully so. I was too.
Random subplot from this game - Vincent Jackson finally returned after a long holdout and a league-mandated suspension, and played about 5 plays and then got "hurt." He sat out for the rest of the game, but instead of being taken to the locker room, he stood on the sidelines with a curious smirk on his face. I'm 98% sure he's faking the injury to piss off his GM. As a Malcolm Floyd owner, I couldn't be more excited.
Monday night -
49ers @ Arizona. Should be a stunning matchup between 3-7 teams with horredous quarterbacks. Please join me in rooting against Frank Gore.
(EDIT* Gore got hurt after 50 yards. Heck yeah!)
Now I want to change gears a litle bit and talk about ethics.
Let's call this: A Brief Discussion Regarding the Ethics of Fantasy Football.
Here's the stage again: playing my closest division rival, in a money league where there's $300 at stake. Needing a win badly to secure a playoff berth. Two starters - Gates and Floyd - are hurt. My opponent has Rivers, Turner and Gore - three fantasy megastars. He also has a curious gap in his roster - no defense. Well, he had a defense. The Patriots. Thursday, against the Lions. And he left them on the bench. How very strange. 8 points, wasted.
So Thursday night I looked at the available defenses on waivers. Nothing special. No great matchups. But just to be safe, I picked up the top option (Jags). All I had to do was drop Ryan Torain. But then I had a thought. If I dropped the Jags, they would be placed on Waivers until December 2nd. Wednesday. A few days after Sunday. Rendering them unavailable to my foe.
So I did it, and then I picked up another defense and did it again. A few more, until the only choices were Indy, Atlanta, Buffalo, Arizona, or Carolina. I was going to force him to pick a lemon. That's when the moral dilemma set in.
Is this cheating?
Is this a game within the game, or a bogus loophole outside the game? Am I disregarding the spirit of the game (actual football)? Am I being a total snake?
Well, I wasn't actually "cheating" persay. I didn't log in under a false account and drop Frank Gore. I didn't rig the league rules to give him negative points for every touchdown. I didn't do anything against the rules. All I did was exploit my opponent's mistake. Right?
I don't know ... but I picked up the remaining defenses until there was one left. Arizona. They were set to hit waivers on Sunday morning. So I couldn't get them.
I didn't even know when my opponent would see the scandal; would he be outraged? At himself, or at me? What if I woke up early on Sunday and snagged the Cardinals before he could, forcing him to play an empty roster and take a goose egg at the DST position? Is that worth my integrity? Would I steal a loaf of bread to feed my family?
Apparently ... I would.
I asked my wife - she said with no uncertainty in her voice "do it. You can win us $300 right?"
I asked Crazy Keith - he just laughed at my desperate moral dilemma. But he said to do it as well.
I asked my brother - he said there would be reprucussions but it was worth it.
I asked my cousin-in-law - he didn't have much to say other than "dem stellers er goonuh beat dem bells."
Long story short - I set my alarm for 4:05 AM on Sunday, woke up, picked up the Cardinals defense, and went back to bed. My opponent, the Primetime Heroes, ate a big fat zero at the defense position, and he now trails me by 21 going into Monday night. That could easily be the difference between the playoffs or not. Between money and bragging rights, and between nothing.
So I ask you - did I cheat? Am I just as guilty as Josh McDaniels? Or did I simply play the game in a brilliant way? Did I fairly exploit the system to my advantage, or did I screw over my opponent in a needlessly malicious manner?
Week 12 Picks: 8-8
Overall: 93-79-4
Upset: 8-5
Lock: 7-5-1
Lions: 5-6
That's all for now. Go Lions.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Quick Quick Picks
Leaving for Pittsburgh tonight ... here are the week 12 picks in a hurry
Thanksgiving:
Patriots (8-2) @ Lions (2-8)
Line: PATS by 6.5
Surprised this line isn't higher. I'll take the Pats.
Saints (7-3) @ Cowboys (3-7)
Line: NO by 3.5
Nice turnaround for Dallas, but too little too late. I like the Saints. This line is way too low.
Bengals (2-8) @ Jets (8-2)
Line: NYJ by 8.5
What an obnoxious hype fest this will be. I'll take the Bengals and the spread. Jets aren't good enough to get 9 points against anybody.
Green Bay (7-3) @ Atlanta (8-2)
Line: ATL by 2.5
Matt Ryan is good at home. Aaron Rodgers is good everywhere. NFC Championship preview. I like Green Bay, but it's a very tough call.
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Buffalo (2-8)
Line: PIT by 6
The streak ends here for Buffalo. I will take Pitt in a massive blowout.
Carolina (1-9) @ Cleveland (3-7)
Line: CLE by 6
Lot of uncertainty regarding quarterbacks. Claussen is questionable, as is McCoy. Either way, it's all Browns.
Jaguars (6-4) @ Giants (6-4)
Line: NYG by 7.5
They have the same record, but one team is great and the other is awful. You can probably guess which is which. I'll take New York in a big win.
Minnesota (3-7) @ Washington (5-5)
Line: WAS by 2.5
Upset of the Week: Minnesota wins its first game of the Leslie Frazier era.
Tennessee (5-5) @ Houston (4-6)
Line: HOU by 5.5
No Vince Young. Does that really matter? I'll take Houston but without much confidence.
Chiefs (6-4) @ Seattle (5-5)
Line: KC by 1
I'll take the Chiefs.
Miami (5-5) @ Oakland (5-5)
Line: OAK by 3
Hmmm ... I guess Miami .
Rams (4-6) @ Broncos (3-7)
Line: DEN by 4
That line's too high. This game should be close. I'll take the Rams.
Tampa (7-3) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Line: BAL by 7.5
Speaking of a line that's too high ... I'm all over Josh Freeman when he gets a 8 point cushion.
Philly (7-3) @ Chicago (7-3)
Line: PHI by 3.5
LOCK LOCK LOCK Michael Vick is unbeatable, Chicago is terrible. What are they thinking with this line?
Bolts (5-5) @ Colts (6-4)
Line: INDY by 3
HUGE game for both teams. Rivers is the league MVP, but I know you can't pick against Manning at home, especially coming off a loss. I'll take Indy.
San Fran (3-7) @ Arizona (3-7)
Line: SF by 1
Whatever a sad excuse for a Monday night game. I shouldn't even waste my time with a pick. Let's say San Fran I guess.
Last week: 8-8
Overall: 85-71-4
Upset: 7-5
Lock: 7-4-1
Lions: 4-6
Thanksgiving:
Patriots (8-2) @ Lions (2-8)
Line: PATS by 6.5
Surprised this line isn't higher. I'll take the Pats.
Saints (7-3) @ Cowboys (3-7)
Line: NO by 3.5
Nice turnaround for Dallas, but too little too late. I like the Saints. This line is way too low.
Bengals (2-8) @ Jets (8-2)
Line: NYJ by 8.5
What an obnoxious hype fest this will be. I'll take the Bengals and the spread. Jets aren't good enough to get 9 points against anybody.
Green Bay (7-3) @ Atlanta (8-2)
Line: ATL by 2.5
Matt Ryan is good at home. Aaron Rodgers is good everywhere. NFC Championship preview. I like Green Bay, but it's a very tough call.
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Buffalo (2-8)
Line: PIT by 6
The streak ends here for Buffalo. I will take Pitt in a massive blowout.
Carolina (1-9) @ Cleveland (3-7)
Line: CLE by 6
Lot of uncertainty regarding quarterbacks. Claussen is questionable, as is McCoy. Either way, it's all Browns.
Jaguars (6-4) @ Giants (6-4)
Line: NYG by 7.5
They have the same record, but one team is great and the other is awful. You can probably guess which is which. I'll take New York in a big win.
Minnesota (3-7) @ Washington (5-5)
Line: WAS by 2.5
Upset of the Week: Minnesota wins its first game of the Leslie Frazier era.
Tennessee (5-5) @ Houston (4-6)
Line: HOU by 5.5
No Vince Young. Does that really matter? I'll take Houston but without much confidence.
Chiefs (6-4) @ Seattle (5-5)
Line: KC by 1
I'll take the Chiefs.
Miami (5-5) @ Oakland (5-5)
Line: OAK by 3
Hmmm ... I guess Miami .
Rams (4-6) @ Broncos (3-7)
Line: DEN by 4
That line's too high. This game should be close. I'll take the Rams.
Tampa (7-3) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Line: BAL by 7.5
Speaking of a line that's too high ... I'm all over Josh Freeman when he gets a 8 point cushion.
Philly (7-3) @ Chicago (7-3)
Line: PHI by 3.5
LOCK LOCK LOCK Michael Vick is unbeatable, Chicago is terrible. What are they thinking with this line?
Bolts (5-5) @ Colts (6-4)
Line: INDY by 3
HUGE game for both teams. Rivers is the league MVP, but I know you can't pick against Manning at home, especially coming off a loss. I'll take Indy.
San Fran (3-7) @ Arizona (3-7)
Line: SF by 1
Whatever a sad excuse for a Monday night game. I shouldn't even waste my time with a pick. Let's say San Fran I guess.
Last week: 8-8
Overall: 85-71-4
Upset: 7-5
Lock: 7-4-1
Lions: 4-6
Monday, November 22, 2010
More Drama
Brady outdueled Manning. Vick outdueled Eli. Vince Young threw his shoulder pads into the crowd. Richard Seymour punched Ben Ruthlessraper in the face.
Not to be outdone, the Vikings fired their head coach today, stealing the headlines yet again.
Minnesota said bye-bye to Brad Childress in the middle of his fifth season as head coach. Childress had some early success (36-28 in his first four years) but this season has been riddled with mistakes and headaches. First the Favre fiasco. Childress courted Favre like a lovestruck teenager, just to watch Favre play like a 65 year old man. Then, the Moss mishap. Then the vociferous arguments with Percy Harvin which led to "anonymous" attacks directed at the coach.
But the final straw for Dr. Robotnik (seriously, look how much Childress resembles the Sonic the Hedgehog villian, it's uncanny) was yet another crushing loss to divisional rival Green Bay, sending the Vikes to a dismal 3-7 record and crushing their playoff hopes.
With Adrian Peterson, Steve Hutchinson, Kevin Williams, and Jared Allen, the Vikings have four of the 10 best players in the NFC. (The other 6 - Brees, Patrick Willis, DeMarcus Ware, Clay Matthews, Jahri Evans, Larry Fitzgerald). How can a team with that much talent, and a Hall of Fame quarterback, be 3-7? This firing was completely fair, and timed appropriately. So I applaud the owner for that.
But now that the Vikings are without their contenious coach, without their diva receiver, and without a playoff chance, how will they maintain their monopoly on the media? Two words:
Brett. Favre.
We're talking a double dose of sex scandal, a will-he-play-won't-he-play debate before each game for the next two months, and a super-triple-dose of oh-my-god-will-he-retire over the month of December. We'll watch his last game (at Detroit!) like a farewell concert to a legendary rock god. But the only difference is - no one will cheer for an encore.
Picks
Got beat up pretty bad this week.
The Browns should have won but blew a 4th quarter lead for the FIFTH TIME this season. Cleveland could perceivably be 7-3 instead of 3-7. Weird, but true. I've got to stop picking them.
The Lions inability to keep their heads on straight (10 penalties for the 2nd straight week) cost them the game and cost me the pick. Granted, 2 or 3 of the calls were terrible calls, especially the horse-collar on Suh when he tackled Barber by the hair. But teams that are well-coached (New England, for example) don't have double digit penalties. In fact, the Pats were penalized just once yesterday. I am quickly getting tired of Jim Schwartz.
I missed the Thursday pick badly because I underestimated the impact of losing Jake Long.
I missed the Bills-Bengals pick because I misjudged the horrendousness of Cincinnati's entire team. Marvin Lewis should be fired after that pathetic performance, no questions asked.
I missed the Titans pick because I didn't expect Rusty Smith (who??????) to play the second half for Tennessee and have a QB rating of 19.
The rest of the games I nailed pretty well. I missed a couple coinflip games (Saints covered against the Seahawks, Steelers covered against the Raydahs), but overall I went 8-7 this week with a Monday nighter to go.
In other news, my fantasy basketball team just rocked the #1 ranked team, 10-2. (Meaning I won 10 categories and lost 2) I got a big week from Blake Griffin who had 44 pts and 17 rbs on Thursday, and of course Kevin Love who continues to dominate the glass. He has surpassed David Lee, by the way, as the best American-born white guy in the NBA.
In other other news, I need Knowshon Moreno and Malcolm Floyd to outscore Brandon Lloyd by 17 tonight in order to essentially clinch the playoffs in the A League. Not feeling good about my chances. I would be a lot happier if my opponent (the infamous Jason Bartman) didn't have Jennings and Bowe combine for 350 yards and 5 TDs.
But at least I got a stunning contribution from Randy Moss.
Not to be outdone, the Vikings fired their head coach today, stealing the headlines yet again.
Minnesota said bye-bye to Brad Childress in the middle of his fifth season as head coach. Childress had some early success (36-28 in his first four years) but this season has been riddled with mistakes and headaches. First the Favre fiasco. Childress courted Favre like a lovestruck teenager, just to watch Favre play like a 65 year old man. Then, the Moss mishap. Then the vociferous arguments with Percy Harvin which led to "anonymous" attacks directed at the coach.
But the final straw for Dr. Robotnik (seriously, look how much Childress resembles the Sonic the Hedgehog villian, it's uncanny) was yet another crushing loss to divisional rival Green Bay, sending the Vikes to a dismal 3-7 record and crushing their playoff hopes.
With Adrian Peterson, Steve Hutchinson, Kevin Williams, and Jared Allen, the Vikings have four of the 10 best players in the NFC. (The other 6 - Brees, Patrick Willis, DeMarcus Ware, Clay Matthews, Jahri Evans, Larry Fitzgerald). How can a team with that much talent, and a Hall of Fame quarterback, be 3-7? This firing was completely fair, and timed appropriately. So I applaud the owner for that.
But now that the Vikings are without their contenious coach, without their diva receiver, and without a playoff chance, how will they maintain their monopoly on the media? Two words:
Brett. Favre.
We're talking a double dose of sex scandal, a will-he-play-won't-he-play debate before each game for the next two months, and a super-triple-dose of oh-my-god-will-he-retire over the month of December. We'll watch his last game (at Detroit!) like a farewell concert to a legendary rock god. But the only difference is - no one will cheer for an encore.
Picks
Got beat up pretty bad this week.
The Browns should have won but blew a 4th quarter lead for the FIFTH TIME this season. Cleveland could perceivably be 7-3 instead of 3-7. Weird, but true. I've got to stop picking them.
The Lions inability to keep their heads on straight (10 penalties for the 2nd straight week) cost them the game and cost me the pick. Granted, 2 or 3 of the calls were terrible calls, especially the horse-collar on Suh when he tackled Barber by the hair. But teams that are well-coached (New England, for example) don't have double digit penalties. In fact, the Pats were penalized just once yesterday. I am quickly getting tired of Jim Schwartz.
I missed the Thursday pick badly because I underestimated the impact of losing Jake Long.
I missed the Bills-Bengals pick because I misjudged the horrendousness of Cincinnati's entire team. Marvin Lewis should be fired after that pathetic performance, no questions asked.
I missed the Titans pick because I didn't expect Rusty Smith (who??????) to play the second half for Tennessee and have a QB rating of 19.
The rest of the games I nailed pretty well. I missed a couple coinflip games (Saints covered against the Seahawks, Steelers covered against the Raydahs), but overall I went 8-7 this week with a Monday nighter to go.
In other news, my fantasy basketball team just rocked the #1 ranked team, 10-2. (Meaning I won 10 categories and lost 2) I got a big week from Blake Griffin who had 44 pts and 17 rbs on Thursday, and of course Kevin Love who continues to dominate the glass. He has surpassed David Lee, by the way, as the best American-born white guy in the NBA.
In other other news, I need Knowshon Moreno and Malcolm Floyd to outscore Brandon Lloyd by 17 tonight in order to essentially clinch the playoffs in the A League. Not feeling good about my chances. I would be a lot happier if my opponent (the infamous Jason Bartman) didn't have Jennings and Bowe combine for 350 yards and 5 TDs.
But at least I got a stunning contribution from Randy Moss.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Is Sarah Palin Ready to be President?
Okay, normally I don't have much to say about politics. I'm more of an observer than a opinion-giver. I like to watch and listen but not say too much. I am one of those very few folks who can hear and understand the perspectives of both the right and the left, and I count myself lucky because of that. I have a lot of friends on the left; I have a lot of family on the right. I sit mostly in the middle - I get both sides, and both sides have valid points.
But both sides also have plenty of crooked politicians who play into a crooked political system, so I personally think that people have to act outside of the government if we want anything to change. That means churches, non-profits, etc. By and large, I don't trust politicians, and the higher up they climb the more corrupt they become, or at least that's how it seems. Obama, Bush, Clinton ... they all operate under a billion dollar PR scheme. How can you really trust any of them when every word is scripted. There's no realness.
But really, what do I know? I'm just a guy with access to the media, which is probably just as corrupt as the political system. The one thing I'm sure of is that I never want to be one of those people who only hears one side of the argument. If I hear a guy talking on the TV, I don't want to automatically discount every word he says just because of a little (D) or a little (R) next to his name. That happens on both sides, and I think it's silly. Not all democrats are heartless baby killers, and not all republicans are greedy old men. Ok? Enough said.
Now on to the point I want to make.
It's about Sarah Palin.
Did you hear she might be considering a run at the Presidency in 2012?!?! Can you believe it?!?
Sorry, I can't help the sarcasm. One of the websites I visit pretty much every day is CNN.com. I like to be in the loop for major stories, so that I'm not the last to know about the oil spill or the Chilean miners. When Michael Jackson died, I knew before most of my friends. I like knowing stuff.
U.S politics is generally the leading story on CNN.com when there's nothing major going on as far as crimes or scandals. And for the past two and a half years, you know who's face has been on the front page more than any other? Not Obama. Not GW. Not Hilary. The Lipstick Wearing Hockey Mom.
For whatever reason, CNN is fervently obsessed with Ex-Governor Palin. They have been obsessed with her since the minute she was nominated as McCain's running mate. After the election, the leading story wasn't "Obama Won!" it was "What Will Sarah Do Next?!"
It's weird. A big reason why McCain lost was because of her. Remember the horrible interviews with Katie Couric and that old guy? Remember the embarrassing vice presidential debate when Sarah just kept winking and saying nonsense, which inspired this hilarious flowchart? Did you see the Matt Damon video which now has 10 million views? She was considered a failure before she did anything. Even Colin Powell questioned her credentials.
And yet, just weeks after Obama's inauguration, the top story on CNN was "Will Sarah Run in 2012?!" And then that same story ran again 2 weeks later. And two weeks after that. And at least 100 times since, the same question has been asked. Will She Run?
As.
If.
We.
Don't.
Already.
Know.
OF COURSE SHE'S GOING TO RUN!!!
SHE'S BEEN RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT FOR 2 YEARS!
WHY WOULD SHE STOP NOW??
The question isn't "Will She Run?"
It's "Why The Heck Do We Care!?"
After high school, Sarah attented Hawaii Pacific University for one semester, then transferred to North Idaho College, then to the University of Idaho, then to Matanuska Susitna College, and then back to the U of Idaho where she graduated in 1986 with a Bachelor's in Communication with an emphasis in journalism. It only took her 5 college transfers to complete a Bachelor's degree!
After college she worked as a sports reporter for a local TV station, and then as a commercial fisherman with her husband. In 1992, she joined the City Council for Wasilla, and after 4 years she ran for Mayor. She won in a landslide, then ran again in 3 years and won again. She served as Mayor of Wasilla for 6 years. In case you're wondering, Wasilla has about 10,200 citizens. It's about half the size of Grandville.
After her two terms of Mayor, Sarah ran for lieutenant governor of Alaska, and lost. The next year she joined the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to battle for safe and efficient oil policies in Alaska. After 1 year, she resigned, citing "lack of ethics" on the part of the commission. She spent the next 2 years as a co-director of a Republican training group for women in Alaska. Then in 2006, she ran for Governor of Alaska, and won 48% to 40%. In 2007, Sarah got a passport for the first time and traveled outside the country. She went to Kuwait and visited soldiers. She probably figured it would be difficult to be President without a passport.
She took office as Governor on December 4, 2006 with a 93% approval rate.
On August 27, 2008, John McCain picked Sarah as his running mate. Some have questioned his motives. Did he simply want a woman to spice things up against the black guy? Was he looking to secure the vote of the religious right? Or did he truly believe that Sarah - with her 18 months experience of Governor of the 47th most populated state - was the best choice for America? Either way, Sarah took the job, and started traveling around, doing interviews and speeches and debates, and she became instantly mega-famous. Less than 6 months after the election, she resigned as Governor, saying "she could no longer do the job she was elected to do." Her approval rating in Alaska had dropped almost 40% by the time of her resignation.
Since, Sarah has ghost-written two books, recorded a reality TV show, and sat in the audience while her daughter Danced with the Stars. She's been on Oprah, Ellen, and SNL. She's spoken all over the country and she's sparked the Republican party like a stick of pink dynamite. In fact, you could probably give her a large chunk of credit for the GOP's recent success in the midterm elections. Every word she says becomes a headline, every place she travels becomes a Republican riot, every Tweet she tweets is controversial. She's basically become the White Oprah.
But back to the original title of this blog post.
Is she really ready to be President? To recap:
-A 4-year grad from the University of Idaho with an emphasis on journalism.
-A commercial fisherman and a sports reporter on TV.
-A Mayor of a city that wouldn't even rank in the top 50 Michigan cities in terms of population.
-An 18 month Governor of a state with less people than Delaware.
That's her resume.
Is she more qualified than me to be President? Of course. Is she more qualified than 99% of Americans? You bet. But I'm just asking, are there Republicans out there -Senators and Governors perhaps - with more than a 4 year degree and more than 18 months of real experience? I'm pretty sure that I've taken more college level law classes (one) than she has.
For reference, look at President Obama's resume:
-Bachelor's from Columbia University in Political Science
-Graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School
-President of the Harvard Law Review
-Professor at University of Chicago Law School for 12 years
-Lawyer in Chicago for 11 years, focusing on civil rights and economic development
-Chicago Community organizer (remember when Sarah made fun of him for that? Funny that she didn't bring up his other occupations, like Lawyer, Professor, Senator)
-Illinois State Senator for 8 years
-U.S. Senator for 3 years
-U.S. President for 2 years and counting
So go ahead. Compare their resumes. Tell me who's more qualified for the job.
Just for the record - I'm not endorsing Obama. I think he's done a lousy job, frankly. He should have focused on the economy, not on healthcare, not on foreign affairs. He should have focused on the biggest area of need. Creating jobs.
3 years ago I was excited about Obama, his talk of "Change," and his promise to employ a Politics of Common Sense. It sounded great. But he has let me down. And I'm more than ready for a change from the Change that hasn't changed much. I really am.
But if the best candidate the Republicans can offer is Sarah Palin, then I, along with a majority of Americans, will be voting for Obama. And we'll have 4 more years of his administration, for better or worse. So to my Repbublican friends out there, if you really want to take back the White House in two years, then please, have some common sense, and don't vote for Palin. That's exactly what Obama wants you to do.
But both sides also have plenty of crooked politicians who play into a crooked political system, so I personally think that people have to act outside of the government if we want anything to change. That means churches, non-profits, etc. By and large, I don't trust politicians, and the higher up they climb the more corrupt they become, or at least that's how it seems. Obama, Bush, Clinton ... they all operate under a billion dollar PR scheme. How can you really trust any of them when every word is scripted. There's no realness.
But really, what do I know? I'm just a guy with access to the media, which is probably just as corrupt as the political system. The one thing I'm sure of is that I never want to be one of those people who only hears one side of the argument. If I hear a guy talking on the TV, I don't want to automatically discount every word he says just because of a little (D) or a little (R) next to his name. That happens on both sides, and I think it's silly. Not all democrats are heartless baby killers, and not all republicans are greedy old men. Ok? Enough said.
Now on to the point I want to make.
It's about Sarah Palin.
Did you hear she might be considering a run at the Presidency in 2012?!?! Can you believe it?!?
Sorry, I can't help the sarcasm. One of the websites I visit pretty much every day is CNN.com. I like to be in the loop for major stories, so that I'm not the last to know about the oil spill or the Chilean miners. When Michael Jackson died, I knew before most of my friends. I like knowing stuff.
U.S politics is generally the leading story on CNN.com when there's nothing major going on as far as crimes or scandals. And for the past two and a half years, you know who's face has been on the front page more than any other? Not Obama. Not GW. Not Hilary. The Lipstick Wearing Hockey Mom.
For whatever reason, CNN is fervently obsessed with Ex-Governor Palin. They have been obsessed with her since the minute she was nominated as McCain's running mate. After the election, the leading story wasn't "Obama Won!" it was "What Will Sarah Do Next?!"
It's weird. A big reason why McCain lost was because of her. Remember the horrible interviews with Katie Couric and that old guy? Remember the embarrassing vice presidential debate when Sarah just kept winking and saying nonsense, which inspired this hilarious flowchart? Did you see the Matt Damon video which now has 10 million views? She was considered a failure before she did anything. Even Colin Powell questioned her credentials.
And yet, just weeks after Obama's inauguration, the top story on CNN was "Will Sarah Run in 2012?!" And then that same story ran again 2 weeks later. And two weeks after that. And at least 100 times since, the same question has been asked. Will She Run?
As.
If.
We.
Don't.
Already.
Know.
OF COURSE SHE'S GOING TO RUN!!!
SHE'S BEEN RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT FOR 2 YEARS!
WHY WOULD SHE STOP NOW??
The question isn't "Will She Run?"
It's "Why The Heck Do We Care!?"
After high school, Sarah attented Hawaii Pacific University for one semester, then transferred to North Idaho College, then to the University of Idaho, then to Matanuska Susitna College, and then back to the U of Idaho where she graduated in 1986 with a Bachelor's in Communication with an emphasis in journalism. It only took her 5 college transfers to complete a Bachelor's degree!
After college she worked as a sports reporter for a local TV station, and then as a commercial fisherman with her husband. In 1992, she joined the City Council for Wasilla, and after 4 years she ran for Mayor. She won in a landslide, then ran again in 3 years and won again. She served as Mayor of Wasilla for 6 years. In case you're wondering, Wasilla has about 10,200 citizens. It's about half the size of Grandville.
After her two terms of Mayor, Sarah ran for lieutenant governor of Alaska, and lost. The next year she joined the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to battle for safe and efficient oil policies in Alaska. After 1 year, she resigned, citing "lack of ethics" on the part of the commission. She spent the next 2 years as a co-director of a Republican training group for women in Alaska. Then in 2006, she ran for Governor of Alaska, and won 48% to 40%. In 2007, Sarah got a passport for the first time and traveled outside the country. She went to Kuwait and visited soldiers. She probably figured it would be difficult to be President without a passport.
She took office as Governor on December 4, 2006 with a 93% approval rate.
On August 27, 2008, John McCain picked Sarah as his running mate. Some have questioned his motives. Did he simply want a woman to spice things up against the black guy? Was he looking to secure the vote of the religious right? Or did he truly believe that Sarah - with her 18 months experience of Governor of the 47th most populated state - was the best choice for America? Either way, Sarah took the job, and started traveling around, doing interviews and speeches and debates, and she became instantly mega-famous. Less than 6 months after the election, she resigned as Governor, saying "she could no longer do the job she was elected to do." Her approval rating in Alaska had dropped almost 40% by the time of her resignation.
Since, Sarah has ghost-written two books, recorded a reality TV show, and sat in the audience while her daughter Danced with the Stars. She's been on Oprah, Ellen, and SNL. She's spoken all over the country and she's sparked the Republican party like a stick of pink dynamite. In fact, you could probably give her a large chunk of credit for the GOP's recent success in the midterm elections. Every word she says becomes a headline, every place she travels becomes a Republican riot, every Tweet she tweets is controversial. She's basically become the White Oprah.
But back to the original title of this blog post.
Is she really ready to be President? To recap:
-A 4-year grad from the University of Idaho with an emphasis on journalism.
-A commercial fisherman and a sports reporter on TV.
-A Mayor of a city that wouldn't even rank in the top 50 Michigan cities in terms of population.
-An 18 month Governor of a state with less people than Delaware.
That's her resume.
Is she more qualified than me to be President? Of course. Is she more qualified than 99% of Americans? You bet. But I'm just asking, are there Republicans out there -Senators and Governors perhaps - with more than a 4 year degree and more than 18 months of real experience? I'm pretty sure that I've taken more college level law classes (one) than she has.
For reference, look at President Obama's resume:
-Bachelor's from Columbia University in Political Science
-Graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School
-President of the Harvard Law Review
-Professor at University of Chicago Law School for 12 years
-Lawyer in Chicago for 11 years, focusing on civil rights and economic development
-Chicago Community organizer (remember when Sarah made fun of him for that? Funny that she didn't bring up his other occupations, like Lawyer, Professor, Senator)
-Illinois State Senator for 8 years
-U.S. Senator for 3 years
-U.S. President for 2 years and counting
So go ahead. Compare their resumes. Tell me who's more qualified for the job.
Just for the record - I'm not endorsing Obama. I think he's done a lousy job, frankly. He should have focused on the economy, not on healthcare, not on foreign affairs. He should have focused on the biggest area of need. Creating jobs.
3 years ago I was excited about Obama, his talk of "Change," and his promise to employ a Politics of Common Sense. It sounded great. But he has let me down. And I'm more than ready for a change from the Change that hasn't changed much. I really am.
But if the best candidate the Republicans can offer is Sarah Palin, then I, along with a majority of Americans, will be voting for Obama. And we'll have 4 more years of his administration, for better or worse. So to my Repbublican friends out there, if you really want to take back the White House in two years, then please, have some common sense, and don't vote for Palin. That's exactly what Obama wants you to do.
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