Sunday, April 10, 2011
weird...
Not sure why that previous post got all crammed into one giant paragraph. I tried to fix it but it insists on staying that way. This site is weird. I'm working on an NBA Playoff Preview. I'm excited. Maybe you don't care about the NBA like I do, but that's your problem. This season has been great and the playoffs are going to be awesome. Also the NFL Draft is in 18 days and some guy I never heard of won the Masters, and the Tigers are 3-6 and tied for last place in the AL Central. More on them later ... peace
Friday, April 8, 2011
Lions #13 Pick
No matter how you slice it, there are exactly eight elite prospects in the upcoming draft. Two cornerbacks, three pass rushers, two DTs and one wide receiver. There are also two quarterbacks who are expected to go in the top 10, and we can usually count on one WTF pick in the early first round. (Like when the Jags took Tyson Alualu last year, considered a third-round prospect, with the #10 pick). Unless the Lions trade up, which is extremely unlikely, they will not be landing one of these eight elite players. In case you're wondering, that list now includes Von Miller. But here's the deal. No draft ever works out how it's supposed to. Mel Kiper knows a lot, but he ends up being wrong every year. Anybody can tell you which prospects are supposed to be great NFL players, but nobody can really predict anything. Look at the last 10 NFL drafts - an elite player can be found somewhere in the pick #10 to #20 range each and every time. 2000 - John Abraham, pick #13; four-time Pro Bowler, 89 career sacks. 2001 - Steve Hutchinson, pick #17; seven-time Pro Bowler, one of the best offensive lineman ever. 2002 - Albert Haynesworth, pick #15; two-time All Pro, was one of the best overall players in the league in 2008. 2003 - Troy Polamalu, pick #16; six-time Pro Bowler, arguably the best overall player in the NFL right now. 2004 - Jonathon Vilma, pick #12; two-time Pro Bowler, was Rookie of the Year, now a stud middle linebacker. 2005 - DeMarcus Ware, pick #11; five consecutive Pro Bowls, probably the best OLB in the league right now. 2006 - Haloti Ngata, pick #12; best DT in the NFL right now, hands down. 2007 - Darelle Revis, pick #14; three straight Pro Bowls, and a top 5 overall player in the NFL in 2009. 2008 - Ryan Clady, pick #12; considered the best left tackle in the NFL during the 2009 season. 2009 - Brian Orakpo, pick #13; two Pro Bowls in two seasons; 20 sacks in his first two years. 2010 - Maurkice Pouncey, pick #18; became the best offensive lineman on Pittsburgh as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl. So as you can clearly see, drafting well between picks 10 and 20 is absolutely possible, and also vital to the rebuilding of a team. Of course you can't miss on your top 5 picks, which is why the Matt Millen era was so disastorous. But it's almost equally important to nail your middle-of-the-first-round picks. Imagine for a moment that back in 2003, Pittsburgh decided to pass on Polamalu, and instead shored up their offensive line with George Foster, who went 7 picks later. Or, what if the pick prior to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia decided that instead of DE Jerome McDougle, they would take a chance on the safety from USC with the mini-afro. What then? Would Pittsburgh have two Super Bowls in the past five years? Absolutely not. Would Ben Roethlisberger be thrown brashly into the conversation with Manning and Brady? Never. Would Philly have at least one, maybe two Super Bowls? Probably. Would McNabb be considered a sure-fire Hall of Famer? You betcha. One elite player, one super-amazing talent like Polamalu, changes the entire landscape of the league. Here's another example. What if Baltimore passes on Ngata in 2006 and instead take a different DT in Broderick Bunkley, who was considered a nearly equal prospect. Does Baltimore have a top 5 run defense five years in a row? They surely do not. Does the team that gets Ngata two picks later, which again happens to be the Eagles? Probably. When you look at this year's class of prospects, you hear scouts saying that there is virtually no difference between Marcell Dareus and Nick Fairley. But they said the same thing about Ngata and Bunkley. And there was a big, BIG difference. Even last year, they said Gerald McCoy was nearly as good as Ndamukong Suh. In five years, that sentence will make you laugh. McCoy is nobody, just a average starter on an average defense. Suh is a dominator, a franchise player, a superstar. In five years, Suh will be one of the best players in the entire NFL. But it's easy to find Suh with the #2 pick. Finding a similar star with the #13 pick is extremely difficult. It happens an average of about 1.5 times per draft. Nailing your first round picks is the best way to build a Super Bowl contender. Securing dependable starters is a must; whiffing completely takes years to recover from. Look at the recent Super Bowl champions. Green Bay found Aaron Rodgers at pick 24, Clay Matthews at pick 26, and Greg Jennings in the second round. New England got Vince Wilfork at pick 21 and Logan Mankins (two-time All Pro) at pick 32. The Steelers found Polamalu (13), Roethlisberger (11), and Santonio Holmes (25) all after the first ten picks. What about New Orleans, who found two-time All Pro Jahri Evans in the fourth round in 2006. Champions are made in the Draft. So are cellar-dwellars. By the way.... did I mention that I hate Matt Millen? So while Mel Kiper will tell you that there are only eight elite prospects in this year's draft, don't listen to that nonsense. Because I guarantee you that between picks 10 and 20 there will be not only a future Pro Bowler, but a future Hall of Famer who leads his team to a Super Bowl. And why the heck shouldn't that guy be found at pick #13 by the Detoit Lions? The problem is, I don't have a freaking clue who it could be. Nobody does. But like everything else in football, drafting is about finding a balance. A great running back needs great speed, but to truly be elite they also need great strength, and it's the combination of the two that makes Adrian Peterson Adrian Peterson. A great quarterback needs a great arm, but he also needs great intangibles. It's a balance of many things. Same with drafting. There are many factors at play - the two most obvious being what position you need, and what players are available. What's their talent level? Obviously, you don't pass on a Michael Jordan-talent just because you need a center. Portland did that in 1984, and it's probably the biggest drafting mistake in the history of the world. Needs are relative. Yes, the Lions needed an offensive tackle last year, but if we had passed on Suh it would have been a huge mistake. Sometimes it's easy to spot. Sometimes it's not. An example is the 2003 Pistons, who didn't think they needed a small forward (because we had Tayshaun). Carmelo Anthony had just led Syracuse to a championship with arguably the best NCAA tournament performance since Danny Manning in the late 80s. But, we liked Tayshaun, so we chose a center instead. If we had picked Chris Bosh, okay. Not terrible. But we didn't. We chose the Serbian teenager who would score 1,525 points in his first six NBA seasons. Carmelo scored 1,725 points in his rookie season alone. Darko couldn't do anything; even when he tried to be rebellious and pearce his ears he got an infection and had to wear a big bandage. And remember when he broke his hand on a dunk and missed 6 weeks, including the Olympics. Sigh... In hindsight, what we needed wasn't a position, it was a player. Carmelo should have been the pick, and Joe Dumars will likely be fired this offseason, and those facts are related. Well, the Iverson trade and Villanueva signing and Stuckey stubborness are also factors. Clearly the Lions have plenty of needs, but what they really NEED is some elite freaking talent. What is the bigger need - a good cornerback, or a great defensive end? In the past, the Lions spent free agency addressing the positions that were perceived as needs, and then used the Draft to acquire pure talent. The Best Player Available (BPA) strategy has sometimes been effective (see: Pittsburgh), and sometimes been worthless (Millen). It's about good scouting, smart interviewing, and team chemistry. But this year is totally different, because of the stupid lockout. There basically is no free agency, or at least not for a while. Because of that, I think this draft is going to be more reactive than active for Lions' management. They have a terrible history of flopping on draft picks, chasing after the BPA and failing miserably. The fans are sick of it, and we realize that terrible drafting is the biggest reason for the 0-16 fiasco. Drafting the BPA is a luxury that crappy teams don't have. We left gaping holes completely open while trying to chase sexy skill position guys, and it resulted in a legendarily bad defense. It's a philosophy thing. Matt Millen had a BPA philosophy. Jim Schwartz has a practical philosophy. Both are acceptable. The problem with the BPA thing is if you suck at scouting talent in a BPA system (like Millen), you'll build a tragically terrible team. If you suck at scouting talent in a needs-based system, you'll be hovering around medicority for years (Jacksonville). It's better to be crappy and go unnoticed than be a laughing stock for decades. That's one of the few things I like about Schwartz - he at least doesn't draw attention to our crappiness. So on to the draft. A lot has changed in the last few weeks, since I started writing this post, and the reality of 8 elite prospects has probably changed too. We know that Carolina is taking a QB with the #1 pick, we know that Von Miller isn't escaping the Cardinals at pick 5, and we're fairly convinced that Dallas will take an offensive lineman. However, little of this affects the Lions. Unless Prince Amukamara magically falls to Detroit (a month ago I would have said 1% chance, now I'd say 10%), we're going to be choosing between filling a positional need or trying to find that Polamalu/Revis type superstar, and risking a swing-and-miss and possibly setting the franchise back a few years. But, maybe there's a way we can do both. What I mean is - a lot of the positions we need also happen to be the best remaining prospects, at least according to expert scouts. With the #13 pick, we 'need' either an outside linebacker, cornerback, or offensive tackle. Those are clearly the most pressing positions to address. Plenty of highly-touted prospects will be available at pick 13 who play those positions. There will also be plenty of stud defensive linemen, and we might be tempted to chase a interior offensive lineman. But chances are the #13 pick boils down to either a CB, a OLB, or an OT. There are a myriad of choices at each position, and I could break down each potential prospect in great detail. But this post is already much too long and has taken literally weeks to write because I've been so terrible at writing lately ... so I'll just give the short version. If Amukamara is available, he's the pick. If not, we won't take a CB until a later round. If any of the three elite pass rushers (Von Miller, D'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn) are available, that player will be the pick. A few weeks ago Bowers was considered a unanimous top 3 pick. Now, he's got the best chance of sliding down to pick #13 thanks to some 'character issues' that have surfaced. Miller is a .1% chance to fall to us; Quinn is about a 5% chance; Bowers, maybe a 7% chance. It's very unlikely that Lions get any of those players. So that leaves us with the same question we've been asking all along: OLB or OT? And the problem is, there are about 5 choices at each position. At offensive tackle, USC's Tyson Smith is considered the best prospect, but I still think Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi will be a better pro. Nate Solder from Colorado is a first-round pick too, as is Anthony Castonzo from Boston College. Lastly there's Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State, who helped destroy Michigan in the bowl game. Most mock drafts have Smith going first of those 5 o-lineman, but no one denies that all 5 will be first-round picks. Personally, I think Smith will be the worst of the 4. I don't trust USC players. Fortunately, Dallas might take him at pick 9. Which would be double-awesome, because it means they would pass on Amukamara, which means Detroit only has to hope Houston also passes on him, which would only happen if Houston is completely retarted, and since they continue to employ Matt Schaub at quarterback, we have a chance! At outside linebacker, it's Von Miller a mile ahead of the pack, and then guys like Akeem Ayers from UCLA, Aldon Smith from Missouri, JJ Watt from Wisconsin, Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue, Cameron Heyward from Ohio State, Cameron Jordan from Cal, Justin Houston from Georgia, Adrian Clayborn from Iowa, Brooks Reid from Arizona ... and the list goes on. A month ago, Ayers was considered the top of these 9 outside-linebacker prospects. Now, he's dropped considerably, while Reid's stock has sky-rocketed, and no one frankly has any idea what order these 9 players will be taken. It's interesting that 4 of them (Watt, Kerrigan, Heyward, Clayborn) are Big Ten players. Wouldn't surprise me if that's the direction the Lions go, given the success they had with former Nebraska D-lineman last year (Suh, VandenBosch). My personal preference would be an outside linebacker ahead of an OT; however I've been kind of crazy about Gabe Carimi for a while. I'll be watching the Draft in delusional hopes of landing Bowers, Amukamara, or Quinn. OK, this post is too long. I'm done now. Peace.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Worst Blogger Ever
That is me.
I just haven't had time, nor have I had anything to write about. I am so mad about the stupid NFL labor strike that I don't want to think about sports.
March Madness is exciting, but it seems like both teams just dink around until there's 30 seconds left, and then shoot buzzer-beaters. Why don't teams ever just get a lead and stay ahead? If a team is down by 8 with 1:20 left, it doesn't matter - you know it's coming down to a buzzer-beater. Some people think that's what makes the NCAA fun. I think it's sloppy and lame.
Also, I miss the NFL and it's not even cancelled yet. But I've lost faith. I truly do not expect to watch any pro football in 2011. I barely even care about the Draft anymore. To culminate the problem, the Lions draft pick is the perfect storm of unexcitement. The first 8-10 picks are going to be enthralling. Franchise QBs, elite prospects, difficult decisions. By the time Detroit's on the clock, it simply comes down to one thing - do we want an OLB or a LT?
Akeem Ayers or Gabe Carimi? Tyron Smith or JJ Watt? Nate Solder or Ryan Kerrigan?
I have honestly no idea; no inclination in either direction. I was leaning towards OLB, which is a bigger need, but I think Detroit might take the franchise LT and then grab an OLB in the next round. Wisconsin's left tackle Gabe Carimi seems to be a better prospect than anyone else who will be available, but I'm afraid they'll buy into the Tyron Smith hype and take him instead. I don't trust an USC offensive player, especially an offensive tackle named Tyron. Maybe we'll lean towards Anthony Castonzo or Nate Solder. Neither would surprise me. But if Detroit is going to take a left tackle with the 13th pick, I hope it's Carimi.
But like I said, left tackle is a bigger need. We have none of the current roster who warrant a starting job. With free agency being nonexistent this year, perhaps we don't have a choice but to use the draft to find a starter. This CBA crap is nauseating.
In other news, it's almost NBA playoffs time, and the East is going to be amazing to watch. Three teams are within a game of the #1 seed (Chicago, Boston, Miami), and whoever gets the #3 seed of those teams has the unenviable task of playing New York, who let me tell you, is going to be a tough out. Not because of Amare and Carmelo putting up 30 points each, but because of Chauncey Billups, a leader who knows how to win in the playoffs.
My dream is seeing Miami lose in the first round, and if they get the 3 seed it's a distinct possibility. Also, don't sleep on Orlando, who will be the best 4 seed the East has seen in probably 20 years.
Out West, the first round will be chalk, but the WCFs should be fascinating. San Antonio will have homecourt throughout, and the Thunder are playing their best ball of the season, and of course don't forget the Lakers. I don't think Dallas has the firepower to make a run at the Finals, but 3 teams in each conference with legitimate title hopes makes for a great postseason.
Then there is Tigers season, which begins in 13 days, against the Yankees, with Justin Verlander against CC Sabathia. As I said to a friend last night, the Tigers could easily win their division, and they could easily finish last. They simply need to stay healthy.
This team has the arms and the bats to win consistently and avoid long losing-streaks. Verlander is a 20-win ace, and Scherzer is a solid #2 guy. The season really hinges on Rick Porcello, who just needs to be a consistent 4.50 ERA guy. The #4 pitcher is a weakness, either Brad Penny or Phil Coke. Not excited either way.
The lineup has the potential to be lethal, with improved hitting at the center and shortstop positions. Austin Jackson will be one of the AL's best leadoff hitters, provided he fixes the terrible K/BB ratio. Hitting in front of Cabrera will likely be Raburn and Ordonez, with former Red Sox Victor Martinez hitting in the 5th position, followed by powerful new shortstop Jhonny Peralta. This gives us an improved top 6, and then Inge, Avila and lastly Santiago/Kelly.
Taking Gerald Laird (.207) and Adam Everett (.185) - two of the worst overall hitters in the entire MLB - out of the lineup will do wonders for the Tigers' offense. Leyland's love affair with "defensive players" was overpowered by Dave Dombrowski's desire to win baseball games. You can't do that without scoring runs, and you can't score runs when Gerald Laird gets an average of 2 hits a month.
It's going to be a juggling act for Leyland, as Brennan Boesch platoons with Raburn in the outfield, and the DH spot rotates between Martinez and Ordonez. When Victor is at catcher and Maggs is the DH, that takes Avila's bat away and replaces him with either Boesch, Wells, or Kelly. Leyland's going to have to identify the hot hand and use it, rather than his typical strategy of stubborn scowling. If Leyland is stubborn, we'll suck. He's got to be flexible, and let the best players play.
If this team has a glaring weakness, it's the bullpen. Valverde is a great closer, but there is no clear set-up man. Joel Zumaya has a chance, but he's still fighting serious injuries and won't be ready for April. (The same goes for second-basemen Carlos Guillen, who will hit in the 6 spot and give the offense a boost whenever he's healthy, which might be never). Detroit will be leaning heavily on newly-acquired Joaquin Benoit, who pitched a sparkling season last year in Tampa with a 1.34 ERA in 63 games. But prior to last season, his career ERA was upwards of 5.00 in 8 seasons with Texas. I don't love him, but he's certainly an improvement over Perry and Thomas and Seay and Weinhardt, who will all be in the mix.
The bullpen isn't atrocious, but it's definitely below average. Benoit is going to have to find a consistent ryhthym in the 7th and 8th innings and keep Detroit from blowing leads, which they did so often last season.
The good news is that there is no clear favorite in the Al Central. Minnesota and the White Sox will contend, as will Cleveland, but Kansas City is worthless. Detroit might be able to win the division with only 90 wins.
It all hinges on Porcello.
I just haven't had time, nor have I had anything to write about. I am so mad about the stupid NFL labor strike that I don't want to think about sports.
March Madness is exciting, but it seems like both teams just dink around until there's 30 seconds left, and then shoot buzzer-beaters. Why don't teams ever just get a lead and stay ahead? If a team is down by 8 with 1:20 left, it doesn't matter - you know it's coming down to a buzzer-beater. Some people think that's what makes the NCAA fun. I think it's sloppy and lame.
Also, I miss the NFL and it's not even cancelled yet. But I've lost faith. I truly do not expect to watch any pro football in 2011. I barely even care about the Draft anymore. To culminate the problem, the Lions draft pick is the perfect storm of unexcitement. The first 8-10 picks are going to be enthralling. Franchise QBs, elite prospects, difficult decisions. By the time Detroit's on the clock, it simply comes down to one thing - do we want an OLB or a LT?
Akeem Ayers or Gabe Carimi? Tyron Smith or JJ Watt? Nate Solder or Ryan Kerrigan?
I have honestly no idea; no inclination in either direction. I was leaning towards OLB, which is a bigger need, but I think Detroit might take the franchise LT and then grab an OLB in the next round. Wisconsin's left tackle Gabe Carimi seems to be a better prospect than anyone else who will be available, but I'm afraid they'll buy into the Tyron Smith hype and take him instead. I don't trust an USC offensive player, especially an offensive tackle named Tyron. Maybe we'll lean towards Anthony Castonzo or Nate Solder. Neither would surprise me. But if Detroit is going to take a left tackle with the 13th pick, I hope it's Carimi.
But like I said, left tackle is a bigger need. We have none of the current roster who warrant a starting job. With free agency being nonexistent this year, perhaps we don't have a choice but to use the draft to find a starter. This CBA crap is nauseating.
In other news, it's almost NBA playoffs time, and the East is going to be amazing to watch. Three teams are within a game of the #1 seed (Chicago, Boston, Miami), and whoever gets the #3 seed of those teams has the unenviable task of playing New York, who let me tell you, is going to be a tough out. Not because of Amare and Carmelo putting up 30 points each, but because of Chauncey Billups, a leader who knows how to win in the playoffs.
My dream is seeing Miami lose in the first round, and if they get the 3 seed it's a distinct possibility. Also, don't sleep on Orlando, who will be the best 4 seed the East has seen in probably 20 years.
Out West, the first round will be chalk, but the WCFs should be fascinating. San Antonio will have homecourt throughout, and the Thunder are playing their best ball of the season, and of course don't forget the Lakers. I don't think Dallas has the firepower to make a run at the Finals, but 3 teams in each conference with legitimate title hopes makes for a great postseason.
Then there is Tigers season, which begins in 13 days, against the Yankees, with Justin Verlander against CC Sabathia. As I said to a friend last night, the Tigers could easily win their division, and they could easily finish last. They simply need to stay healthy.
This team has the arms and the bats to win consistently and avoid long losing-streaks. Verlander is a 20-win ace, and Scherzer is a solid #2 guy. The season really hinges on Rick Porcello, who just needs to be a consistent 4.50 ERA guy. The #4 pitcher is a weakness, either Brad Penny or Phil Coke. Not excited either way.
The lineup has the potential to be lethal, with improved hitting at the center and shortstop positions. Austin Jackson will be one of the AL's best leadoff hitters, provided he fixes the terrible K/BB ratio. Hitting in front of Cabrera will likely be Raburn and Ordonez, with former Red Sox Victor Martinez hitting in the 5th position, followed by powerful new shortstop Jhonny Peralta. This gives us an improved top 6, and then Inge, Avila and lastly Santiago/Kelly.
Taking Gerald Laird (.207) and Adam Everett (.185) - two of the worst overall hitters in the entire MLB - out of the lineup will do wonders for the Tigers' offense. Leyland's love affair with "defensive players" was overpowered by Dave Dombrowski's desire to win baseball games. You can't do that without scoring runs, and you can't score runs when Gerald Laird gets an average of 2 hits a month.
It's going to be a juggling act for Leyland, as Brennan Boesch platoons with Raburn in the outfield, and the DH spot rotates between Martinez and Ordonez. When Victor is at catcher and Maggs is the DH, that takes Avila's bat away and replaces him with either Boesch, Wells, or Kelly. Leyland's going to have to identify the hot hand and use it, rather than his typical strategy of stubborn scowling. If Leyland is stubborn, we'll suck. He's got to be flexible, and let the best players play.
If this team has a glaring weakness, it's the bullpen. Valverde is a great closer, but there is no clear set-up man. Joel Zumaya has a chance, but he's still fighting serious injuries and won't be ready for April. (The same goes for second-basemen Carlos Guillen, who will hit in the 6 spot and give the offense a boost whenever he's healthy, which might be never). Detroit will be leaning heavily on newly-acquired Joaquin Benoit, who pitched a sparkling season last year in Tampa with a 1.34 ERA in 63 games. But prior to last season, his career ERA was upwards of 5.00 in 8 seasons with Texas. I don't love him, but he's certainly an improvement over Perry and Thomas and Seay and Weinhardt, who will all be in the mix.
The bullpen isn't atrocious, but it's definitely below average. Benoit is going to have to find a consistent ryhthym in the 7th and 8th innings and keep Detroit from blowing leads, which they did so often last season.
The good news is that there is no clear favorite in the Al Central. Minnesota and the White Sox will contend, as will Cleveland, but Kansas City is worthless. Detroit might be able to win the division with only 90 wins.
It all hinges on Porcello.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Cam Newton the #1 Overall Pick ... Really???
There is a new name atop the most recent mock drafts. Not Fairley or Bowers, not A.J. Green or Patrick Peterson. It's Heisman winner Cam Newton, who led Auburn to an undefeated season and may or may not have got paid in the process.
He's atypical, has a weird throwing motion, and he ran for 1,400 yards and 20 TDs last year. He's a black Tim Tebow, and was considered a fringe first-round pick. But after an impressive Combine and reports that Carolina will use the #1 pick on an offensive player, Newton appears at the top of several big boards, while Nick Fairley has fallen out of the top 5 and possibly into the 8-10 range.
It's a stunning twist, but we saw the same thing happen last year when Ndamukong Suh and Russell Okung were being considered for the #1 pick, and St. Louis abruptly decided on Sam Bradford instead about a month before the Draft. When investing upwards of $60 million on a player who needs to turn a franchise around, it's just so hard for owners and GMs to pass on possible 'franchise quarterbacks.'
Of course, that mentality has led to some of the NFL's greatest busts, including JaMarcus Russell and David Carr, and soon to be Matt Stafford. It's a hit-or-miss proposition, and about 50% of the time it's a miss. But for some reason unbeknownst to me, Carolina seems to be leaning towards a quarterback, just like 8 of the last 10 teams did with the #1 pick.
It should be noted that the two #1 picks who were not QBs are Jake Long and Mario Williams, two of the all-around best players in the NFL, and players who you can definitely build a franchise around. Meanwhile, 4 of those 8 quarterbacks have been worthless, and only 1 (Stafford) has a chance to salvage his career.
But at any rate, it seems that Carolina - who desperately needs to improve their defense - is leaning towards taking an offensive player. NFL guru Adam Schefter reports that Carolina's new coach Ron Rivera, who is a former D-coordinator, is smitten with the prospect of acquiring a franchise quarterback with the #1 pick. Problem is, nobody's quite sure if he's smitten with Newton or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert.
Part of the issue is job security. Rivera knows how the head coaching business works. You win now, or you get fired. After 14 years as an assistant coach, this is his first shot as head coach. He can't feel very confident hitching his wagon to Jimmy Claussen, or Tony Pike. Most people expect Carolina to bring in Billy Volek (a favorite of Rivera's), but that's not the answer either. He wants a franchise QB to build around, because he wants to stay the coach past 2014.
If it were me, I'll tell you what I would do. Pass on Newton, pass on Gabbert, and take Da'Quan Bowers. He's the best player available. He's a monster. He's very Julius Peppers-like. Then, in the 3rd of 4th round, take a QB to try to develop. There is plenty of depth at the QB position in this draft. (Carolina has no 2nd round pick - they traded it to New England, of course).
I don't trust Cam Newton as a backup, let alone a franchise quarterback. I think he'll be a perfect mix of JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy and Tim Tebow's awkward release, mixed with a bit of Matt Leinart's celebrityness, and a hint of Vince Young's craziness. Throw in a dash of Reggie Bush for cheating and he'll be considered a bust within 5 years, about the same time he gives the Heisman back. Repeat: I do not trust Cam Newton.
But I'm not the Panthers, and I could care less what they do. It looks like they'll take Newton. Gabbert is probably #2 on their big board, and with Pro Day approaching he has the chance to supplant Newton if he can show off his arm. The favorite phrase of scouts is "he can make every throw." Gabbert is that kind of guy; Newton isn't. But, scouts should realize that other guys who can "make every throw" are Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford. It helps to look at intangibles, such as work ethic, toughness, leadership, and competitiveness. Of course, it's not all about intangibles, or Tim Tebow would be a Pro Bowler. You need both. And that, my friends, is rare.
Which is why 50% of quarterbacks taken in the first round are busts.
So ... let's talk about the rest of the Draft, but first, a clarifying sidenote. You may be wondering how I can talk about the NFL with much excitement without mentioning the impending lockout and the CBA and the fact that there might not even be a season. Well, it's called denial. That, and a little bit of hope and trust that this whole negotiating thing will actually work. Anyway, on to pick #2.
Denver will be happier than clams if Carolina throws the first pick away on Cam Newton (or Gabbert), because it means they get to choose the best player and take them for $5 million less. But then there's the tough part... choosing the best player.
Is it Bowers? Peterson? Green? Fairley? Dareus?
According to most scouts, Dareus passed Fairley as the best DT prospect at the Combine, and he knows ranks #2 overall on Scouts, Inc., behind only Bowers. Fairley has dropped all the way to #6.
But will Denver go for a defensive tackle, or a cornerback to replace Champ Bailey, who appears likely to leave? Patrick Peterson had perhaps the most impressive Combine of anybody, and has moved significantly ahead of Prince Amukamara as the best CB prospect. And of course there's Bowers, who could give Denver one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the NFL, opposite Elvis Dumervil, who missed 2010 but had a league-leading 17 sacks in 2009.
Dumervil and Bowers together would be lethal, but with no secondary it wouldn't matter. Dareus would help the run defense, but again, you need a cornerback. Most mock drafts now have Denver taking either Dareus or Bowers, but I'm going on a limb and saying they draft Patrick Peterson.
Which leads us to the fascinating selection of the Buffalo Bills, who are not being shy about their love of Cam Newton. If he slips past the Panthers, Buffalo is fully expected to snag him at #3. I know, bizarre.
If Newton is gone, Buffalo's options will be either Blaine Gabbert, or "settle" for an incredible talent like Bowers or A.J. Green. There would also be the two great DTs available, but Buffalo has a stud in DT Kyle Williams, so they'll likely address other needs.
Like I said, Buffalo wants a quarterback. I think Newton is the #1 player on their board, and I believe Peterson is #2. Unfortunately for them, both players are gone in this mock, but Da'Quan Bowers makes a nice consolation prize. Either that, or Gabbert. They might have interest in A.J. Green, but not ahead of Bowers. An elite receiver without a competent quarterback doesn't win you many games. Just ask 0-16 Calvin Johnson.
There is one other possible target for Buffalo at this pick, and that's Von Miller, who I previously mocked to the Lions. Sadly, his stock has risen, and there's no stinking way he's falling to pick 13. He might go in the top 5. Buffalo needs a 3-4 OLB badly, and Miller is a complete stud. He might fit their scheme better than Bowers. Lots of intriguing options for them. To be safe, I'll guess Bowers, assuming they'll pass on Gabbert and take a QB early in the 2nd round. Aside from the obvious names like Jake Locker and Ryan Mallet, there's also TCU's Andy Dalton and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, who have both generated plenty of interest as potential 'franchise QBs' who can be drafted later. Buffalo is probably targeting Kaepernick, the fastest QB in the draft, because Chan Gailey loves mobile quarterbacks, plus a Kaepernick/Fitzpatrick position battle would be entertaining.
So to recap,
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
At pick #4 is the Bengals, and the drama continues to escalade. You've got Carson Palmer who has reportedly demanded a trade and said that he will never play another game as a Bengal. His name is now tenatively added to the McNabb/Young/Kolb list as potential starters on the move. Two of those guys will end up in San Francisco and Arizona, I believe. Kyle Orton, meanwhile, has kept the #1 job in Denver according to John Fox, which means Tim Tebow is depressed but it proves that John Fox is competent, and it gives Denver a fighting chance at 8-8 this year. I digress...
Not only is Cincinnati maybe going to need a new quarterback, but TO is departing and Ochocinco is likely taking his sideshow elsewhere too. With all the drama surrounding the offense, plus Cedric Benson entering his contract year and playing horribly in 2010, doesn't Marvin Lewis have to address the offense with this pick, despite most of the supreme talent being on the defensive end?
Well, I think that all depends on how seriously you take Carson Palmer's threats of retirement and/or demanding a trade. He reportedly said he would retire if he wasn't traded. But, personally, I think he's bluffing. I think he just never wants to play another game with Ochocinco. I think he's bluffing so that Cincy's management will practically beg him to stay, and when he still doesn't seem happy, they'll say "Okay, fine! We got rid of both nutcase receivers, we let your ltitle brother be the backup quarterback, and if that's not good enough, we'll pass on Dareus and Fairley, who we NEED, and we'll take A.J. Green. Are you happy now???"
And he'll nod and say, Yes, thank you. Because he just landed a Calvin-like talent to go along with a great slot-guy in Shipley and a huge tight end in Gresham, not to mention potential stud #2 receiver Jerome Simpson, and Carson will have his best statistical season since 2005, which will help him get massively overpaid. Oh but just in case you forgot, he still stinks.
Next at #5 is Arizona, who might have more needs than any team. They need a quarterback, but between McNabb and Kolb I think they'll be all set. If not, Larry Fitzgerald will pack up his bags and wait for his contract to expire while he fakes a few injuries. They need McNabb, and McNabb needs them, so that should be an easy match. The hitch is that Fitzgerald has specifically asked for them to bring in Kolb, so they don't want to upset him. One way or another, they'll get one of those guys.
Their offensive line is a wreck, but they'll work on that in later rounds. This pick is between DT (Fairley/Dareus) and OLB (Miller/Quinn). Since this is a Ken Whisenhunt defense, and he is a former Steeler coordinator, I see this pick being an OLB. And Whisenhunt was spotted at the Combine talking to Von Miller for quite a while, and isn't shy about admitting he loves him, and comparing him to Clay Matthews. So I'll call this an easy pick and give them Miller, meaning Nick Fairley, the guy who I had going #1 a month ago, is now still on the board at pick #6. Crazy.
Cleveland will jump on A.J. Green if Cincinnati doesn't take him, and they might like Julio Jones enough to take him here instead. They NEED a #1 receiver to give Colt McCoy a chance to make strides this year, and they aren't finding one via free agency. It would be idiotic for them not to address the biggest position of need and to basically doom their quarerback.
But Mike Holmgren has a recent history of overconfidence and dooming his players, and he'll do it again this year. He'll spend the pick on defense, and get a very good player like Fairley or Dareus to replace the recently-released Shaun Rogers. Dareus is supposedly the better player, but Holmgren likes to be cute, so I think he'll take Fairley.
The #7 pick belongs to San Francisco, who I think will trade for Kolb if Arizona doesn't first. I think Jim Harbaugh is too smart to want McNabb or Vince Young. If he can't get Kolb, he probably drafts Blaine Gabbert. Either that or he hopes for a 1-15 season so he can draft Andrew Luck next year, but I already said Washington will do that and I'm sticking to it.
Lots of needs abound on San Fran's defense, and if they can trade for Kolb they'll address the defense with either Amukamara or Quinn or Dareus. But I think Kolb probably goes to Arizona, which means this pick is probably a quarterback. Gabbert is the #1 QB on a lot of boards, and fits Harbaugh's West Coast system well. Harbaugh actually tried to recruit Gabbert out of high school. Looks like a match made in heaven.
Recap:
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, WR, Missouri
Next up is Tennessee, who goes into this draft quarterback-less and hopeless. They have all kinds of needs, but if they can't land one of the top quarterbacks they'll got best player available. In this situation, that's gotta be DT Marcell Dareus. They'll follow Buffalo's lead and take a QB in the second round.
At pick 9 is the Cowboys, and it's a no-brainer if Prince Amukamara falls to them. He's a shutdown corner, and that's exactly what they need. Jerry Jones is even trying to do the reverse-psychology thing, saying recently "I'm not as down on our cornerbacks as you might think." Uh-huuuuh. Riiiiight. I buy that.
#10 belongs to Washington, a complete trainwreck led by the clueless Mike Shanahan. They'll lose their two highest-paid players this offseason (McNabb and Haynesworth) without getting anything in return, and they'll head into 2011 with Rex Grossman as quarterback unless they get Vince Young, which might be a step backwards. My guess is they'll go after Marc Bulger and maybe a guy like Tavaris Jackson. Shanahan wants to prove that he can win with crap players. Josh McDaniels tried that strategy last year. How'd that work out?
The Skins have needs everywhere, and should go best player available, which looks like Robert Quinn. They don't need an OLB as much as they need a quarterback and a receiver, but it's too early to reach for Locker or Mallet, and they'll be lucky to land a top-5 talent with the 10th pick. Quinn is a no-brainer, even for a guy with no brain.
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, WR, Missouri
8. Tennessee - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
9. Dallas - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
10. Washington - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Houston is next at 11, and they promise to take whichever player the Lions want most at pick 13. They'll steal Miller or Amukamara or Quinn if any of those guys fall. They usually draft smart. And with plenty of need for improvement on defense, they'll grab a top-flight pass rusher, since there are no cornerbacks on the board who warrant a pick in this position.
The question is, which pass rusher? Akeem Ayers, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan... Five guys who haven't really distinguished themselves from one another. And not far behind are Corey Liuget, Muhammad Wilkerson, Adrian Clayborn, and Justin Houston. It's going to be a tough, tough decision for Houston. Unless one of the aforementioned 10 guys falls to them, they have a crappy position. I don't have any idea who I would pick if I were them, and I don't have any idea who I think they'll pick.
But if we ask Mel Kiper, it'll be J.J. Watt from Wisconsin. So let's go with that.
Next up in the Vikings, who clearly want a quarterback, but might not want Jake Locker this early. They might make a crazy reach for him, or for Kaepernick or Mallet, but it's more likely they shore up the trenches. That could mean a new franchise left tackle, or adding another pass rusher. They either get the best offensive lineman available, or the sloppy seconds of pass rushers. My guess is they'll take the O-lineman, so they can move Bryant McKinnie over to right tackle, and start protecting their new quarterback, who they'll find either in the 2nd round or maybe in Kolb if they get lucky. Best offensive lineman is a total crapshoot, but I would pick Gabe Carimi.
And with that, the Lions are on the clock, with the 13th pick, for a season that might not even happen. Let me give it some thought, and I'll get back with you.
(Spoiler: it's going to be an OLB).
He's atypical, has a weird throwing motion, and he ran for 1,400 yards and 20 TDs last year. He's a black Tim Tebow, and was considered a fringe first-round pick. But after an impressive Combine and reports that Carolina will use the #1 pick on an offensive player, Newton appears at the top of several big boards, while Nick Fairley has fallen out of the top 5 and possibly into the 8-10 range.
It's a stunning twist, but we saw the same thing happen last year when Ndamukong Suh and Russell Okung were being considered for the #1 pick, and St. Louis abruptly decided on Sam Bradford instead about a month before the Draft. When investing upwards of $60 million on a player who needs to turn a franchise around, it's just so hard for owners and GMs to pass on possible 'franchise quarterbacks.'
Of course, that mentality has led to some of the NFL's greatest busts, including JaMarcus Russell and David Carr, and soon to be Matt Stafford. It's a hit-or-miss proposition, and about 50% of the time it's a miss. But for some reason unbeknownst to me, Carolina seems to be leaning towards a quarterback, just like 8 of the last 10 teams did with the #1 pick.
It should be noted that the two #1 picks who were not QBs are Jake Long and Mario Williams, two of the all-around best players in the NFL, and players who you can definitely build a franchise around. Meanwhile, 4 of those 8 quarterbacks have been worthless, and only 1 (Stafford) has a chance to salvage his career.
But at any rate, it seems that Carolina - who desperately needs to improve their defense - is leaning towards taking an offensive player. NFL guru Adam Schefter reports that Carolina's new coach Ron Rivera, who is a former D-coordinator, is smitten with the prospect of acquiring a franchise quarterback with the #1 pick. Problem is, nobody's quite sure if he's smitten with Newton or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert.
Part of the issue is job security. Rivera knows how the head coaching business works. You win now, or you get fired. After 14 years as an assistant coach, this is his first shot as head coach. He can't feel very confident hitching his wagon to Jimmy Claussen, or Tony Pike. Most people expect Carolina to bring in Billy Volek (a favorite of Rivera's), but that's not the answer either. He wants a franchise QB to build around, because he wants to stay the coach past 2014.
If it were me, I'll tell you what I would do. Pass on Newton, pass on Gabbert, and take Da'Quan Bowers. He's the best player available. He's a monster. He's very Julius Peppers-like. Then, in the 3rd of 4th round, take a QB to try to develop. There is plenty of depth at the QB position in this draft. (Carolina has no 2nd round pick - they traded it to New England, of course).
I don't trust Cam Newton as a backup, let alone a franchise quarterback. I think he'll be a perfect mix of JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy and Tim Tebow's awkward release, mixed with a bit of Matt Leinart's celebrityness, and a hint of Vince Young's craziness. Throw in a dash of Reggie Bush for cheating and he'll be considered a bust within 5 years, about the same time he gives the Heisman back. Repeat: I do not trust Cam Newton.
But I'm not the Panthers, and I could care less what they do. It looks like they'll take Newton. Gabbert is probably #2 on their big board, and with Pro Day approaching he has the chance to supplant Newton if he can show off his arm. The favorite phrase of scouts is "he can make every throw." Gabbert is that kind of guy; Newton isn't. But, scouts should realize that other guys who can "make every throw" are Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford. It helps to look at intangibles, such as work ethic, toughness, leadership, and competitiveness. Of course, it's not all about intangibles, or Tim Tebow would be a Pro Bowler. You need both. And that, my friends, is rare.
Which is why 50% of quarterbacks taken in the first round are busts.
So ... let's talk about the rest of the Draft, but first, a clarifying sidenote. You may be wondering how I can talk about the NFL with much excitement without mentioning the impending lockout and the CBA and the fact that there might not even be a season. Well, it's called denial. That, and a little bit of hope and trust that this whole negotiating thing will actually work. Anyway, on to pick #2.
Denver will be happier than clams if Carolina throws the first pick away on Cam Newton (or Gabbert), because it means they get to choose the best player and take them for $5 million less. But then there's the tough part... choosing the best player.
Is it Bowers? Peterson? Green? Fairley? Dareus?
According to most scouts, Dareus passed Fairley as the best DT prospect at the Combine, and he knows ranks #2 overall on Scouts, Inc., behind only Bowers. Fairley has dropped all the way to #6.
But will Denver go for a defensive tackle, or a cornerback to replace Champ Bailey, who appears likely to leave? Patrick Peterson had perhaps the most impressive Combine of anybody, and has moved significantly ahead of Prince Amukamara as the best CB prospect. And of course there's Bowers, who could give Denver one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the NFL, opposite Elvis Dumervil, who missed 2010 but had a league-leading 17 sacks in 2009.
Dumervil and Bowers together would be lethal, but with no secondary it wouldn't matter. Dareus would help the run defense, but again, you need a cornerback. Most mock drafts now have Denver taking either Dareus or Bowers, but I'm going on a limb and saying they draft Patrick Peterson.
Which leads us to the fascinating selection of the Buffalo Bills, who are not being shy about their love of Cam Newton. If he slips past the Panthers, Buffalo is fully expected to snag him at #3. I know, bizarre.
If Newton is gone, Buffalo's options will be either Blaine Gabbert, or "settle" for an incredible talent like Bowers or A.J. Green. There would also be the two great DTs available, but Buffalo has a stud in DT Kyle Williams, so they'll likely address other needs.
Like I said, Buffalo wants a quarterback. I think Newton is the #1 player on their board, and I believe Peterson is #2. Unfortunately for them, both players are gone in this mock, but Da'Quan Bowers makes a nice consolation prize. Either that, or Gabbert. They might have interest in A.J. Green, but not ahead of Bowers. An elite receiver without a competent quarterback doesn't win you many games. Just ask 0-16 Calvin Johnson.
There is one other possible target for Buffalo at this pick, and that's Von Miller, who I previously mocked to the Lions. Sadly, his stock has risen, and there's no stinking way he's falling to pick 13. He might go in the top 5. Buffalo needs a 3-4 OLB badly, and Miller is a complete stud. He might fit their scheme better than Bowers. Lots of intriguing options for them. To be safe, I'll guess Bowers, assuming they'll pass on Gabbert and take a QB early in the 2nd round. Aside from the obvious names like Jake Locker and Ryan Mallet, there's also TCU's Andy Dalton and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, who have both generated plenty of interest as potential 'franchise QBs' who can be drafted later. Buffalo is probably targeting Kaepernick, the fastest QB in the draft, because Chan Gailey loves mobile quarterbacks, plus a Kaepernick/Fitzpatrick position battle would be entertaining.
So to recap,
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
At pick #4 is the Bengals, and the drama continues to escalade. You've got Carson Palmer who has reportedly demanded a trade and said that he will never play another game as a Bengal. His name is now tenatively added to the McNabb/Young/Kolb list as potential starters on the move. Two of those guys will end up in San Francisco and Arizona, I believe. Kyle Orton, meanwhile, has kept the #1 job in Denver according to John Fox, which means Tim Tebow is depressed but it proves that John Fox is competent, and it gives Denver a fighting chance at 8-8 this year. I digress...
Not only is Cincinnati maybe going to need a new quarterback, but TO is departing and Ochocinco is likely taking his sideshow elsewhere too. With all the drama surrounding the offense, plus Cedric Benson entering his contract year and playing horribly in 2010, doesn't Marvin Lewis have to address the offense with this pick, despite most of the supreme talent being on the defensive end?
Well, I think that all depends on how seriously you take Carson Palmer's threats of retirement and/or demanding a trade. He reportedly said he would retire if he wasn't traded. But, personally, I think he's bluffing. I think he just never wants to play another game with Ochocinco. I think he's bluffing so that Cincy's management will practically beg him to stay, and when he still doesn't seem happy, they'll say "Okay, fine! We got rid of both nutcase receivers, we let your ltitle brother be the backup quarterback, and if that's not good enough, we'll pass on Dareus and Fairley, who we NEED, and we'll take A.J. Green. Are you happy now???"
And he'll nod and say, Yes, thank you. Because he just landed a Calvin-like talent to go along with a great slot-guy in Shipley and a huge tight end in Gresham, not to mention potential stud #2 receiver Jerome Simpson, and Carson will have his best statistical season since 2005, which will help him get massively overpaid. Oh but just in case you forgot, he still stinks.
Next at #5 is Arizona, who might have more needs than any team. They need a quarterback, but between McNabb and Kolb I think they'll be all set. If not, Larry Fitzgerald will pack up his bags and wait for his contract to expire while he fakes a few injuries. They need McNabb, and McNabb needs them, so that should be an easy match. The hitch is that Fitzgerald has specifically asked for them to bring in Kolb, so they don't want to upset him. One way or another, they'll get one of those guys.
Their offensive line is a wreck, but they'll work on that in later rounds. This pick is between DT (Fairley/Dareus) and OLB (Miller/Quinn). Since this is a Ken Whisenhunt defense, and he is a former Steeler coordinator, I see this pick being an OLB. And Whisenhunt was spotted at the Combine talking to Von Miller for quite a while, and isn't shy about admitting he loves him, and comparing him to Clay Matthews. So I'll call this an easy pick and give them Miller, meaning Nick Fairley, the guy who I had going #1 a month ago, is now still on the board at pick #6. Crazy.
Cleveland will jump on A.J. Green if Cincinnati doesn't take him, and they might like Julio Jones enough to take him here instead. They NEED a #1 receiver to give Colt McCoy a chance to make strides this year, and they aren't finding one via free agency. It would be idiotic for them not to address the biggest position of need and to basically doom their quarerback.
But Mike Holmgren has a recent history of overconfidence and dooming his players, and he'll do it again this year. He'll spend the pick on defense, and get a very good player like Fairley or Dareus to replace the recently-released Shaun Rogers. Dareus is supposedly the better player, but Holmgren likes to be cute, so I think he'll take Fairley.
The #7 pick belongs to San Francisco, who I think will trade for Kolb if Arizona doesn't first. I think Jim Harbaugh is too smart to want McNabb or Vince Young. If he can't get Kolb, he probably drafts Blaine Gabbert. Either that or he hopes for a 1-15 season so he can draft Andrew Luck next year, but I already said Washington will do that and I'm sticking to it.
Lots of needs abound on San Fran's defense, and if they can trade for Kolb they'll address the defense with either Amukamara or Quinn or Dareus. But I think Kolb probably goes to Arizona, which means this pick is probably a quarterback. Gabbert is the #1 QB on a lot of boards, and fits Harbaugh's West Coast system well. Harbaugh actually tried to recruit Gabbert out of high school. Looks like a match made in heaven.
Recap:
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, WR, Missouri
Next up is Tennessee, who goes into this draft quarterback-less and hopeless. They have all kinds of needs, but if they can't land one of the top quarterbacks they'll got best player available. In this situation, that's gotta be DT Marcell Dareus. They'll follow Buffalo's lead and take a QB in the second round.
At pick 9 is the Cowboys, and it's a no-brainer if Prince Amukamara falls to them. He's a shutdown corner, and that's exactly what they need. Jerry Jones is even trying to do the reverse-psychology thing, saying recently "I'm not as down on our cornerbacks as you might think." Uh-huuuuh. Riiiiight. I buy that.
#10 belongs to Washington, a complete trainwreck led by the clueless Mike Shanahan. They'll lose their two highest-paid players this offseason (McNabb and Haynesworth) without getting anything in return, and they'll head into 2011 with Rex Grossman as quarterback unless they get Vince Young, which might be a step backwards. My guess is they'll go after Marc Bulger and maybe a guy like Tavaris Jackson. Shanahan wants to prove that he can win with crap players. Josh McDaniels tried that strategy last year. How'd that work out?
The Skins have needs everywhere, and should go best player available, which looks like Robert Quinn. They don't need an OLB as much as they need a quarterback and a receiver, but it's too early to reach for Locker or Mallet, and they'll be lucky to land a top-5 talent with the 10th pick. Quinn is a no-brainer, even for a guy with no brain.
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, WR, Missouri
8. Tennessee - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
9. Dallas - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
10. Washington - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Houston is next at 11, and they promise to take whichever player the Lions want most at pick 13. They'll steal Miller or Amukamara or Quinn if any of those guys fall. They usually draft smart. And with plenty of need for improvement on defense, they'll grab a top-flight pass rusher, since there are no cornerbacks on the board who warrant a pick in this position.
The question is, which pass rusher? Akeem Ayers, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan... Five guys who haven't really distinguished themselves from one another. And not far behind are Corey Liuget, Muhammad Wilkerson, Adrian Clayborn, and Justin Houston. It's going to be a tough, tough decision for Houston. Unless one of the aforementioned 10 guys falls to them, they have a crappy position. I don't have any idea who I would pick if I were them, and I don't have any idea who I think they'll pick.
But if we ask Mel Kiper, it'll be J.J. Watt from Wisconsin. So let's go with that.
Next up in the Vikings, who clearly want a quarterback, but might not want Jake Locker this early. They might make a crazy reach for him, or for Kaepernick or Mallet, but it's more likely they shore up the trenches. That could mean a new franchise left tackle, or adding another pass rusher. They either get the best offensive lineman available, or the sloppy seconds of pass rushers. My guess is they'll take the O-lineman, so they can move Bryant McKinnie over to right tackle, and start protecting their new quarterback, who they'll find either in the 2nd round or maybe in Kolb if they get lucky. Best offensive lineman is a total crapshoot, but I would pick Gabe Carimi.
And with that, the Lions are on the clock, with the 13th pick, for a season that might not even happen. Let me give it some thought, and I'll get back with you.
(Spoiler: it's going to be an OLB).
Thursday, March 3, 2011
It's Been Awhile
Hello.
So apparently it has been like 2 weeks since I wrote something last. During that time I went to Mexico, my son learned to walk, and 13 trades happened in the NBA, including two of the 12 best players being traded from West to East. Football is still at a stand-still, the NFL draft is still 40+ days away, and Miguel Cabrera is still an alcoholic.
I just want to assure you that just because football is done and basketball is boring until the playoffs and I just don't give a crap about march madness, that doesn't mean that I will be completely done writing until next August.
In fact, during my Mexico trip I re-read one of my favorite books, Traveling Mercies by Anne Lamott, and it inspired me that maybe I should be more intentional about writing. Not just spewing random thoughts about sports, but actually writing about stuff. Telling stories. Choosing words carefully. Not just throwing out opinions and seeing how fast I can type.
Back in school people used to say I was a pretty good writer. I wrote some kick-ass haikus if I do say so myself. So since the world of sports really doesn't have a whole lot of interesting stories until the NBA playoffs, I'm thinking about writing just for the sake of writing.
But until then, here are four random thoughts about the NBA, because so dang much has happened over the past 2 weeks that I've gotta say something.
#1 - Carmelo to the Knicks, Deron Williams to the Nets.
These trades happened within hours of each other, but they couldn't have been more different. Carmelo has been a virtual nomad for an entire season, and the subject of more trade rumors than the rest of the NBA combined. Deron Williams was thought to be the rock of a pretty good Utah team, and arguably the NBA's best point guard. Carmelo, on the other hand, is arguably the NBA's most effective scorer, though Kevin Durant might have something to say about that. Either way, it was two of the league's 12 best players (#8 and #10 in my recent rankings) and they dramatically shifted the landscape of the NBA playoffs.
Utah and Denver are no longer teams in the chase for a title in the near future. Both teams are in full-fledged rebuilding mode. Stupid? Probably. But wise to get something for their stars before it was too late. With those two teams out of the equation, but likely in the playoffs, it makes the West a 4 team race.
San Antonio - the 1 seed.
LA - the defending champs.
OKC - the trendy pick.
Dallas - the sleeper.
No one else in the West stands a chance. Portland and New Orleans might put up tough first round battles, but Denver and either Memphis/Utah/Phoenix will be swept away. In the near future, you've got the increasing age of Kobe and Duncan, the likely relocation of Paul and Nash, and the worthlessness of Brandon Roy's knees, thus making the West a completely crappy conference within about 2 years. It might be Oklahoma City and Dallas in the Western Finals for about the next 5 years. And I'm okay with that.
Meanwhile, the East just went from good to great. Miami is already the most stacked twosome since Kobe and Shaq, and the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Boston has 4 stars and a great bench. Chicago has the league MVP and two studs in the frontcourt. Orlando has the league's best big man and a decent but unspectactular supporting cast. Now enter New York, who has two scoring machines and a championship-tested point guard to keep the team focused and give them a defensive mindset for the first time in 15 years. And New Jersey, who won't compete this year but will be ready next year to make the leap into the playoffs and possibly be a tricky team to beat if Brook Lopez progresses.
Two years ago, 7 of the 10 best teams in the NBA were in the Western Conference. Now, after a crazy trade deadline, the opposite can be said.
#2 - Four Detroit Pistons players stage some kind of a walk-out, but then return to the team days later.
What the heck? Really? I heard about this in Mexico are truly didn't care one bit. They are unwatchable and completely uninteresting. I can't believe Rip and Tayshaun used to be so important to me. In fact, the password for my cell phone voicemail is 2232 - Tayshaun's #22 plus Rip's #32. How far they've fallen. Pathetic.
#3 - Kevin Love is three games away from history.
In case you haven't heard, I predicted back in October that Kevin Love would lead the NBA in rebounding. When Bill Laimbeer became an assistant coach with the Twolves a couple years ago, I read a quote from Love saying that coach Laimbeer would help him greatly as a rebounder, and his goal was to win a rebounding title. (Laimbeer did twice, in 85 and 86.)
Well not only is K-Love leading the league, in rebounding, but he's shattering the standard. Right now he's at 15.5 per game, and if he keeps it up he'll have the highest mark since Dennis Rodman in 1991. In the last three games he only has 54 rebounds, so we'll see.
But what's most impressive is the streak of consecutive double-doubles. Right now Love is at 48 straight games, dating back to a November 19th game against the Lakers in which he went scoreless, shooting 0-7. The record since the ABA merger is 51 games, set by Moses Malone in 1979. (Wilt Chamberlain had something like 200 straight double-doubles playing against white guys who were shorter than me.) In all likelihood, Love will break the record in 4 days against Dallas. One of the most impressive records in NBA history, about to be broken by an unknown white guy on a terrible team. Wow.
#4 - Blake Griffin jumped over a car. Kind of.
I don't know if you stayed up til almost midnight to watch the dunk contest two weeks ago, but if you did, you probably regretted it. It was a stupid waste of time.
There are few Michiganders who love Blake Griffin more than me, but I'll even admit that he shouldn't have won; in fact he should have finished fourth. He had the least personality, the least creativity, and frankly did the least impressive dunks. The car thing was cool, but to be honest he jumped over the very front edge of a small crappy Kia. I wanted to see him completely leap over a BMW. It would have been like me jumping over a elephant's tail and saying I jumped over an elephant. Wait, do elephants have short tails? Bad example. But something like that.
Serge Ibaka should have won the contest, and Javale McGee should have got second. But I understand why Blake won. It was in LA, and it was good for the NBA to have him win. I just wish he would have really earned it. It was embarassing for the other guys to completely outdunk him and then lose. And the worst part was seeing Cheryl Miller interview all of them. She is atrocious.
Well, that's all for now. Happy March. Less than a month til I go to the Bahamas!
So apparently it has been like 2 weeks since I wrote something last. During that time I went to Mexico, my son learned to walk, and 13 trades happened in the NBA, including two of the 12 best players being traded from West to East. Football is still at a stand-still, the NFL draft is still 40+ days away, and Miguel Cabrera is still an alcoholic.
I just want to assure you that just because football is done and basketball is boring until the playoffs and I just don't give a crap about march madness, that doesn't mean that I will be completely done writing until next August.
In fact, during my Mexico trip I re-read one of my favorite books, Traveling Mercies by Anne Lamott, and it inspired me that maybe I should be more intentional about writing. Not just spewing random thoughts about sports, but actually writing about stuff. Telling stories. Choosing words carefully. Not just throwing out opinions and seeing how fast I can type.
Back in school people used to say I was a pretty good writer. I wrote some kick-ass haikus if I do say so myself. So since the world of sports really doesn't have a whole lot of interesting stories until the NBA playoffs, I'm thinking about writing just for the sake of writing.
But until then, here are four random thoughts about the NBA, because so dang much has happened over the past 2 weeks that I've gotta say something.
#1 - Carmelo to the Knicks, Deron Williams to the Nets.
These trades happened within hours of each other, but they couldn't have been more different. Carmelo has been a virtual nomad for an entire season, and the subject of more trade rumors than the rest of the NBA combined. Deron Williams was thought to be the rock of a pretty good Utah team, and arguably the NBA's best point guard. Carmelo, on the other hand, is arguably the NBA's most effective scorer, though Kevin Durant might have something to say about that. Either way, it was two of the league's 12 best players (#8 and #10 in my recent rankings) and they dramatically shifted the landscape of the NBA playoffs.
Utah and Denver are no longer teams in the chase for a title in the near future. Both teams are in full-fledged rebuilding mode. Stupid? Probably. But wise to get something for their stars before it was too late. With those two teams out of the equation, but likely in the playoffs, it makes the West a 4 team race.
San Antonio - the 1 seed.
LA - the defending champs.
OKC - the trendy pick.
Dallas - the sleeper.
No one else in the West stands a chance. Portland and New Orleans might put up tough first round battles, but Denver and either Memphis/Utah/Phoenix will be swept away. In the near future, you've got the increasing age of Kobe and Duncan, the likely relocation of Paul and Nash, and the worthlessness of Brandon Roy's knees, thus making the West a completely crappy conference within about 2 years. It might be Oklahoma City and Dallas in the Western Finals for about the next 5 years. And I'm okay with that.
Meanwhile, the East just went from good to great. Miami is already the most stacked twosome since Kobe and Shaq, and the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Boston has 4 stars and a great bench. Chicago has the league MVP and two studs in the frontcourt. Orlando has the league's best big man and a decent but unspectactular supporting cast. Now enter New York, who has two scoring machines and a championship-tested point guard to keep the team focused and give them a defensive mindset for the first time in 15 years. And New Jersey, who won't compete this year but will be ready next year to make the leap into the playoffs and possibly be a tricky team to beat if Brook Lopez progresses.
Two years ago, 7 of the 10 best teams in the NBA were in the Western Conference. Now, after a crazy trade deadline, the opposite can be said.
#2 - Four Detroit Pistons players stage some kind of a walk-out, but then return to the team days later.
What the heck? Really? I heard about this in Mexico are truly didn't care one bit. They are unwatchable and completely uninteresting. I can't believe Rip and Tayshaun used to be so important to me. In fact, the password for my cell phone voicemail is 2232 - Tayshaun's #22 plus Rip's #32. How far they've fallen. Pathetic.
#3 - Kevin Love is three games away from history.
In case you haven't heard, I predicted back in October that Kevin Love would lead the NBA in rebounding. When Bill Laimbeer became an assistant coach with the Twolves a couple years ago, I read a quote from Love saying that coach Laimbeer would help him greatly as a rebounder, and his goal was to win a rebounding title. (Laimbeer did twice, in 85 and 86.)
Well not only is K-Love leading the league, in rebounding, but he's shattering the standard. Right now he's at 15.5 per game, and if he keeps it up he'll have the highest mark since Dennis Rodman in 1991. In the last three games he only has 54 rebounds, so we'll see.
But what's most impressive is the streak of consecutive double-doubles. Right now Love is at 48 straight games, dating back to a November 19th game against the Lakers in which he went scoreless, shooting 0-7. The record since the ABA merger is 51 games, set by Moses Malone in 1979. (Wilt Chamberlain had something like 200 straight double-doubles playing against white guys who were shorter than me.) In all likelihood, Love will break the record in 4 days against Dallas. One of the most impressive records in NBA history, about to be broken by an unknown white guy on a terrible team. Wow.
#4 - Blake Griffin jumped over a car. Kind of.
I don't know if you stayed up til almost midnight to watch the dunk contest two weeks ago, but if you did, you probably regretted it. It was a stupid waste of time.
There are few Michiganders who love Blake Griffin more than me, but I'll even admit that he shouldn't have won; in fact he should have finished fourth. He had the least personality, the least creativity, and frankly did the least impressive dunks. The car thing was cool, but to be honest he jumped over the very front edge of a small crappy Kia. I wanted to see him completely leap over a BMW. It would have been like me jumping over a elephant's tail and saying I jumped over an elephant. Wait, do elephants have short tails? Bad example. But something like that.
Serge Ibaka should have won the contest, and Javale McGee should have got second. But I understand why Blake won. It was in LA, and it was good for the NBA to have him win. I just wish he would have really earned it. It was embarassing for the other guys to completely outdunk him and then lose. And the worst part was seeing Cheryl Miller interview all of them. She is atrocious.
Well, that's all for now. Happy March. Less than a month til I go to the Bahamas!
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Football Withdrawal
Subnormal activity in the nucleus accumbens, often characterized by depression, anxiety and craving.
This is a portion of the definition of the word "withdrawal." Usually it refers to drugs, but in this case, it refers to football.
The end of football season sucks. It just sucks. The Lions are done for six months, my fantasy team no longer matters, writing the weekly picks is a distant memory ... it's just depressing. But THIS year, with the mother-freaking CBA negotiations, it's just morbidly painful. The only way I can describe it is subnormal activity in my nucleus accumbens.
I don't have a clue what's going to happen this offseason, or next summer. Truthfully, I don't think anybody knows. I am pretty sure there will be a season, but it wouldn't shock me if it was 14 games or less. I'm not playing close attention to all the CBA talk because to be honest, I truly don't care. I'm impartial. Owners, players, union ... whatever. Just figure it out. I'm a fan, not a stockholder.
This stupid thing is looming over the NFL draft right now and really sucking the wind out of its sails. Usually one of my favorite sports events of the year, this year the draft is a sobering reminder that there might not be a season in 2011. It's like that scene from Lord of the Rings 2, when the accident-prone hobbit says something about going home to the Shire, and Charlie from LOST says, "Don't you understand!? There won't BE a Shire."
Depressing.
Speaking of LOST, does anybody watch the show Parenthood on NBC? First off, it's really good, and well worth watching. However season 1 is not available on NBC.com so you have to find one of those sketchy sites with Chinese subtitles and irritating pop-ups, but it's worth it. A very good show. Anyway, Michael Emerson (also known as Benjamin Linus) made a guest appearance on this week's episode, and it was just awesome to see him again. He played a bug-obsessed man with Asbergers, and did a phenomenal job, of course. But I kept waiting for him to suddenly stab one of the main characters and look down on the bloody body and say blankly "I'm so sorry, Christina, but he broke the rules."
So anyway, the moral of the story is you should watch Parenthood, and I miss football. Moving on ...
-The two-time defending champion Lakers lost to the Cavaliers last night. That's the same Cavs who had lost a record 26 in a row last month. Is this worrisome for Los Angeles? Or just a weird bump before the All Star game? I think it's the latter. I'm not worried about LA, simply because nobody else in the West can contend with them come playoff time. Attribute this loss to a lack of focus, Kobe's illness, and the fact that Cleveland is much better than anybody realizes now that they have Mo Williams back.
-Carmelo Anthony is still a Nugget, and the trade deadline is less than a week away. It's kind of a foregone conclusion that he'll join the Knicks, but New York's GM Donnie Walsh turned down a trade offer yesterday, calling it 'horrendous,' or some word like that. Denver asked for Raymond Felton (B+ point guard), Landry Fields (hustle rookie), Wislon Chandler (decent scorer) and Danilo Gallinari (poor-man's Nowitzki) in exchange for Melo and Chauncey. In my opinion, this is a win for both teams. However, it makes sense for New York to say no - they'll get Carmelo this summer in free agency, and they can keep their support players. It's not like they are winning the 2011 Championship, so they might as well wait. Denver needs to make a trade soon though, or they will get nothing in return for their franchise player. I expect LA and New Jersey to throw out a couple of half-assed bids, but Denver won't take 30 cents on the dollar, and Carmelo will veto those trades anyway. He wants to be a Knick, and he'll be a Knick. But not until this summer.
-Speaking of highly coveted players, have you heard about Albert Pujols? If you listen to ESPN radio, than you certainly have. It seems nobody is excited about baseball season, people are only excited about Pujols season. If you don't follow baseball (Andy), Albert Pujols is the MLB's version of LeBron James. Physically dominant, statistically dominant, the best player in the league by a mile, and now a free agent who is ready to win a championship. I'm not sure where I think he'll end up in 2012 when his contract actually expires, but I know he'll play this season for St. Louis, and put up his usual MVP stats. Next fall the circus will start up again, and it'll be centered on the Yankees and Red Sox, of course. However, if I'm throwing a dart in the dark, my guess is Albert plays the rest of his career in a Chicago Cubs jersey. Here are 3 reasons why:
A) He probably wants to stay in the NL. It's easier to hit, easier to win individual accolades, and easier to get to the World Series.
B) Chicago is desperate to win. Possibly more than any franchise in any sport. They haven't won a title in 337 years.
C) St. Louis and Chicago are HUGE rivals. Probably the second biggest rivarly in baseball. It would just make for a great story if he went there.
-I go to Mexico in 3 days. I will try to write more stuff after that.
Buenos dias. No bebes el agua. Los cocodrilos son feos.
This is a portion of the definition of the word "withdrawal." Usually it refers to drugs, but in this case, it refers to football.
The end of football season sucks. It just sucks. The Lions are done for six months, my fantasy team no longer matters, writing the weekly picks is a distant memory ... it's just depressing. But THIS year, with the mother-freaking CBA negotiations, it's just morbidly painful. The only way I can describe it is subnormal activity in my nucleus accumbens.
I don't have a clue what's going to happen this offseason, or next summer. Truthfully, I don't think anybody knows. I am pretty sure there will be a season, but it wouldn't shock me if it was 14 games or less. I'm not playing close attention to all the CBA talk because to be honest, I truly don't care. I'm impartial. Owners, players, union ... whatever. Just figure it out. I'm a fan, not a stockholder.
This stupid thing is looming over the NFL draft right now and really sucking the wind out of its sails. Usually one of my favorite sports events of the year, this year the draft is a sobering reminder that there might not be a season in 2011. It's like that scene from Lord of the Rings 2, when the accident-prone hobbit says something about going home to the Shire, and Charlie from LOST says, "Don't you understand!? There won't BE a Shire."
Depressing.
Speaking of LOST, does anybody watch the show Parenthood on NBC? First off, it's really good, and well worth watching. However season 1 is not available on NBC.com so you have to find one of those sketchy sites with Chinese subtitles and irritating pop-ups, but it's worth it. A very good show. Anyway, Michael Emerson (also known as Benjamin Linus) made a guest appearance on this week's episode, and it was just awesome to see him again. He played a bug-obsessed man with Asbergers, and did a phenomenal job, of course. But I kept waiting for him to suddenly stab one of the main characters and look down on the bloody body and say blankly "I'm so sorry, Christina, but he broke the rules."
So anyway, the moral of the story is you should watch Parenthood, and I miss football. Moving on ...
-The two-time defending champion Lakers lost to the Cavaliers last night. That's the same Cavs who had lost a record 26 in a row last month. Is this worrisome for Los Angeles? Or just a weird bump before the All Star game? I think it's the latter. I'm not worried about LA, simply because nobody else in the West can contend with them come playoff time. Attribute this loss to a lack of focus, Kobe's illness, and the fact that Cleveland is much better than anybody realizes now that they have Mo Williams back.
-Carmelo Anthony is still a Nugget, and the trade deadline is less than a week away. It's kind of a foregone conclusion that he'll join the Knicks, but New York's GM Donnie Walsh turned down a trade offer yesterday, calling it 'horrendous,' or some word like that. Denver asked for Raymond Felton (B+ point guard), Landry Fields (hustle rookie), Wislon Chandler (decent scorer) and Danilo Gallinari (poor-man's Nowitzki) in exchange for Melo and Chauncey. In my opinion, this is a win for both teams. However, it makes sense for New York to say no - they'll get Carmelo this summer in free agency, and they can keep their support players. It's not like they are winning the 2011 Championship, so they might as well wait. Denver needs to make a trade soon though, or they will get nothing in return for their franchise player. I expect LA and New Jersey to throw out a couple of half-assed bids, but Denver won't take 30 cents on the dollar, and Carmelo will veto those trades anyway. He wants to be a Knick, and he'll be a Knick. But not until this summer.
-Speaking of highly coveted players, have you heard about Albert Pujols? If you listen to ESPN radio, than you certainly have. It seems nobody is excited about baseball season, people are only excited about Pujols season. If you don't follow baseball (Andy), Albert Pujols is the MLB's version of LeBron James. Physically dominant, statistically dominant, the best player in the league by a mile, and now a free agent who is ready to win a championship. I'm not sure where I think he'll end up in 2012 when his contract actually expires, but I know he'll play this season for St. Louis, and put up his usual MVP stats. Next fall the circus will start up again, and it'll be centered on the Yankees and Red Sox, of course. However, if I'm throwing a dart in the dark, my guess is Albert plays the rest of his career in a Chicago Cubs jersey. Here are 3 reasons why:
A) He probably wants to stay in the NL. It's easier to hit, easier to win individual accolades, and easier to get to the World Series.
B) Chicago is desperate to win. Possibly more than any franchise in any sport. They haven't won a title in 337 years.
C) St. Louis and Chicago are HUGE rivals. Probably the second biggest rivarly in baseball. It would just make for a great story if he went there.
-I go to Mexico in 3 days. I will try to write more stuff after that.
Buenos dias. No bebes el agua. Los cocodrilos son feos.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Three Interesting Things which are Somewhat Related to Sports
1) The 2011 Super Bowl broke ratings records as the most watched TV program in American history, with 111 million viewers. Nice.
However, I think that figure is an egregious load of bullcrap and I for one am not stupid enough to accept it. There are 307 million people in the country. Are we really supposed to believe that 196 million Americans did NOT watch the Super Bowl? Think about it. How many people do you know that didn't watch the game? I can't think of a single person. Even people who abhor football show up at Super Bowl parties for the food. Not to mention the commercials.
I think the people who determine TV ratings should be fired. Every single one of them. They are obviously doing a terrible job. They are obviously lazy and aren't striving for accuracy. How do they know how many people showed up at my parent's house for the Super Bowl party? It started as just 6, but it became 12. Do they know about the two children who were there? I mean, Jack sat in front of the TV, clapped a couple times and wore a Steelers onesie while eating pretzels. What else do he have to do to be counted? I mean he probably watched the game in a more intelligent manner than 99% of Steelers fans.
The whole thing is absurd. It really bothers me. Who do they think they're fooling, saying that 196 million Americans didn't watch the Super Bowl? That's completely asinine, and I have a solution: they need to hire me to come up with a better guess. I'll be the official Super Bowl Ratings Vice Counselor. Here's my guess: 250 million Americans watched at least 1 hour of the Super Bowl. That guess is based on nothing in particular and I came up with that guess in less than 3 seconds. But I would bet my life and all my possessions that my guess is closer than the nonsense coming from the so-called experts.
The problem is that they are counting how many TVs are tuned in to the station. For something like Seinfeld, that makes sense. But the Super Bowl is a party event. How many people are watching the average TV set? Are they counting bars and restaurants? What about church parties? When I was in college, two-hundred students would gather in the lounge and watch the game. And I went to a small college. The 111 million figure makes about as much sense as saying 20% of Americans celebrate Christmas each year, because that's how many Christmas trees are purchased. Give me a freaking break.
2) On a more positive note, Celtics guard Ray Allen is going to break one of the NBA's most impressive records on Thursday night. He made his 2,559th three-pointer on Monday against Charlotte, putting him just one behind Reggie Miller for the all-time mark. That's an average of 2.4 threes per game over the course of 1,073 games and 15 seasons. Allen made 41% of them as a member of the Milwaukee Bucks, 34% with the Sonics, and 25% with the Celtics. Fans across America, not just in Boston, will be celebrating Allen's accomplishment.
When Ray breaks the record on Thursday, it will be with 60 less attempts than Reggie Miller, and it will mean he has 813 more threes than the next active player (Jason Kidd). So, all Kidd needs to do is play another 6 seasons. The problem is, he's 37. Allen's only 35.
By the time he's done, Ray might have 600 more threes than Miller and be completely uncatchable. But let's not go there yet. Let's talk about the significance of Thursday's game. First off, it's the NBA's best rivalry, Celtics vs. Lakers, in the NBA's best stadium, the Boston Garden. My contention is that Allen could have broken the record in Charlotte, but purposely chose to wait until this very game. He went 2 for 2 from behind the line in the first half against the Bobcats, and didn't take another three for the rest of the night, despite being on the court in a close game which they ended up losing.
Allen wants to break this record in front of his own fans, the NBA's best fans, in Boston. And he wants to do it while being guarded by the greatest active player, five-time champion Kobe Bryant. The historic scope of breaking this record goes from an 8.3 to a 9.7 just because of the setting.
However, I think that figure is an egregious load of bullcrap and I for one am not stupid enough to accept it. There are 307 million people in the country. Are we really supposed to believe that 196 million Americans did NOT watch the Super Bowl? Think about it. How many people do you know that didn't watch the game? I can't think of a single person. Even people who abhor football show up at Super Bowl parties for the food. Not to mention the commercials.
I think the people who determine TV ratings should be fired. Every single one of them. They are obviously doing a terrible job. They are obviously lazy and aren't striving for accuracy. How do they know how many people showed up at my parent's house for the Super Bowl party? It started as just 6, but it became 12. Do they know about the two children who were there? I mean, Jack sat in front of the TV, clapped a couple times and wore a Steelers onesie while eating pretzels. What else do he have to do to be counted? I mean he probably watched the game in a more intelligent manner than 99% of Steelers fans.
The whole thing is absurd. It really bothers me. Who do they think they're fooling, saying that 196 million Americans didn't watch the Super Bowl? That's completely asinine, and I have a solution: they need to hire me to come up with a better guess. I'll be the official Super Bowl Ratings Vice Counselor. Here's my guess: 250 million Americans watched at least 1 hour of the Super Bowl. That guess is based on nothing in particular and I came up with that guess in less than 3 seconds. But I would bet my life and all my possessions that my guess is closer than the nonsense coming from the so-called experts.
The problem is that they are counting how many TVs are tuned in to the station. For something like Seinfeld, that makes sense. But the Super Bowl is a party event. How many people are watching the average TV set? Are they counting bars and restaurants? What about church parties? When I was in college, two-hundred students would gather in the lounge and watch the game. And I went to a small college. The 111 million figure makes about as much sense as saying 20% of Americans celebrate Christmas each year, because that's how many Christmas trees are purchased. Give me a freaking break.
2) On a more positive note, Celtics guard Ray Allen is going to break one of the NBA's most impressive records on Thursday night. He made his 2,559th three-pointer on Monday against Charlotte, putting him just one behind Reggie Miller for the all-time mark. That's an average of 2.4 threes per game over the course of 1,073 games and 15 seasons. Allen made 41% of them as a member of the Milwaukee Bucks, 34% with the Sonics, and 25% with the Celtics. Fans across America, not just in Boston, will be celebrating Allen's accomplishment.
When Ray breaks the record on Thursday, it will be with 60 less attempts than Reggie Miller, and it will mean he has 813 more threes than the next active player (Jason Kidd). So, all Kidd needs to do is play another 6 seasons. The problem is, he's 37. Allen's only 35.
By the time he's done, Ray might have 600 more threes than Miller and be completely uncatchable. But let's not go there yet. Let's talk about the significance of Thursday's game. First off, it's the NBA's best rivalry, Celtics vs. Lakers, in the NBA's best stadium, the Boston Garden. My contention is that Allen could have broken the record in Charlotte, but purposely chose to wait until this very game. He went 2 for 2 from behind the line in the first half against the Bobcats, and didn't take another three for the rest of the night, despite being on the court in a close game which they ended up losing.
Allen wants to break this record in front of his own fans, the NBA's best fans, in Boston. And he wants to do it while being guarded by the greatest active player, five-time champion Kobe Bryant. The historic scope of breaking this record goes from an 8.3 to a 9.7 just because of the setting.
Only one problem: Kobe is a pretty good defender.
3) Speaking of impressive NBA records, the Cleveland Cavaliers lost on Monday for the 25th consecutive time. That my friends, is the worst losing streak in pro basketball, ever. Which makes me feel like a prophet, because last spring, after the Celtics beat up the Cavs in the playoffs and LeBron essentially quit, I wrote:
"No question about it, Cavs-Celtics 2010 is going to go down as the worst thing that ever happened to Cleveland sports."
Without LeBron, Cleveland started the season with a little oomph, trying to beat the odds, and was 7-9 through November. Then came a 10 game losing streak. Then a single win, 109-102 in overtime, against the Knicks. Then 25 straight loses. Remarkably, the Cavs would be on a THIRTY-SIX game losing streak if Amare Stoudemire's 12-footer as regulation expired would have gone in n December 18th.
During this current losing streak, Cleveland lost leading scorer Mo Williams to a two-month injury. Defensive stalwart Anderson Varejao is already lost for the year. Lately, third-year scrub Ramon Sessions is leading the team in minutes as well as scoring. (he's also averaging 20 points and 10 assists for my fantasy team!)
With an 8-game home stretch and games against Detroit and Washington coming up, Cleveland will break the streak sometime in February. They'll probably get Williams back soon and finish the season with at least 15 wins. Hopefully they'll get a top 3 pick and start rebuilding sooner than later.
But as for Cavs' owner Dan Gilbert and his "guarantee" after the Decision (If you don't remember, he promised that Cleveland would win a title before Miami) ... well I think Abraham Lincoln said it best:
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.
That's all I have for today. February is notoriously the worst sports month of the year. Good thing I'm going to Mexico in 2 weeks. Go Lions!
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