Looking Ahead to Week One

Want to know a secret?

Fantasy football is a stupid game of luck and randomness.  No amount of information or strategy can make you win your league.  I've been beaten by goofballs who know less about fantasy football than I know about the Jaguars' backup tight end. It all comes down to luck of the draw.

(You may have seen ... Bill Barnwell recently wrote an article with the same premise over on Grantland. But his article ends up in a totally different direction than mine, thus I don't feel bad about plagiarizing his first couple sentences).

All that said, there is a reason why the same guys usually tend to do well in your league, just as the same guys end up at the final table in the World Series of Poker every year.  Preparation and knowledge come in handy; it's better to be prepared than to pick guys you've never heard of. But when you understand and truly embrace the fact that fantasy football is a game of random chaos, then you can finally figure out the best strategies to operate inside that world of sheer unpredictability. As Tyler Durden would say "It's not until you hit rock bottom, that you experience evolution."

A good comparison is the card game euchre. I've played against some of the biggest numskulls I've ever met, and they've whooped me because they got nothing but jacks and aces for 10 straight hands.  It happens.  But the odds always favor the more experienced, more savvy, more strategic euchre player.  The same is true in fantasy football.  You can't control injuries or drug suspensions or crazy fluke plays; you are dealt a hand each week, and it might be a hand full of crap.  But there is a way to weather the storm and give yourself a fighting chance.  The best fantasy football advice I have is: take it one week at a time.

In other words, play the matchups.

Back in the day, "play the matchup" was a nice euphemism for "your team sucks."  But now, with every offense operating the RBBC and "dink-and-dump" offenses, there are no sure things.  Andre Johnson might catch 12 balls for 180 yards one week, and 1 ball for 8 yards the next week.  Head coaches have basically given a giant middle finger to fantasy football owners everywhere, while Bill Bellichick sits silently in a dark office and smiles.

So that's why I play the matchups.  If you can't predict anything from week to week, you might as well give yourself the best chance by playing a guy on a team that's likely to rack up some points.  Of course, there are exceptions; don't ever bench your stud players.  You know that.  But who really is a stud player?  Just because you drafted a bum in the 2nd round (like me with DeSean Jackson last year), don't destroy your season by trotting him out there week after week. That's Jim Leyland logic.  Instead, find the sneaky free agent receiver that nobody say coming, and boldly leave DeSean on the bench.

Playing the matchup is far more intricate than simply picking on the worst defenses.  It's about analyzing each week as its own animal.  Looking at injuries, trends, weather, all that stuff.  For example, teams always score more points on turf, especially in the passing game.  If a particular coach is on the hot seat and his team is about to quit on him, go against that defense; they'll be giving up 6 TDs.  If a historically bad secondary emerges, like the Lions of a few years ago, pick on them week after week. Guys will come out of the woodwork for 70 yard TDs against them.

But realize, some defenses are wretched statistically (like the Packers last year), but not nearly as bad on the field as they are on the stat sheet.  On the other hand, some defenses are actually wretched, but land in the middle of the pack statistically, because opposing offenses don't run up the score. Don't be deceived by "yards allowed."  Pay more attention to talent and personnel.

That said, there is a place for garbage points.  If Oakland is playing New England, you want Heyward-Bey in your lineup, because once the Pats go up 28-0, the Raiders will be chucking the ball all over the place.

When it comes to injuries, be a little bit craftier than the rest of your league, and take risks on unknown guys.  When the #2 and #3 receivers are hurting on a good offense, consider adding the #4 guy as he tries to make a name for himself (that tactic worked for me a few years ago when I was one of 1% of NFL.com who played Miles Austin during his 250 yard game).  If a starting RB is hurt and you've never heard of his backup, do a little Youtube research and you'll be able to tell if the guy is legit or not.  If he is, pick him up and enjoy the "surprising' 150 yard game that nobody else saw coming. But here's a surefire tip - if a guy stinks on Youtube, he indisputably stinks in real life.

Also, don't just look at offensive injuries.  If a typically strong defense has key injuries at DT and MLB, consider picking on their run defense.  Pay attention to key CB injuries too; if a middle-of-the-road CB (say, Chris Houston) is out, pick on that team, because you can be assured that the guy replacing him will get picked on. And when a CB gets picked on, that is usually reflected in the red zone.

So to summarize, don't be afraid to take risks.  Just because somebody is unknown and unproven doesn't mean they can't put up crazy numbers.  Playing the matchup is a week by week process that doesn't necessarily require tons of time, but does require some thought.  Two caveats:
 
-If you have a stud QB, avoid playing the matchup at that position, unless he's playing against an extremely staunch defenses and/or in terrible weather.  But the elite defenses of 3 years ago (Jets, Steelers, Ravens) probably aren't the elite defenses of 2012. Not sure which defenses to avoid, other than probably San Fran.

-Always play the matchup with kickers and defenses.  The minute you become attached to a kicker or defense, you're done.  None of them deserve your commitment; they are completely flaky from one week to the next.  Especially kickers.  This is why nobody should ever draft a kicker in anything except the last round.

For this point, I have proof.

Last year, in one of my leagues I switched kickers every week.  Never played the same guy more than 2 weeks in a row.  I played the matchup - and by that I mean not only did I pick on bad defenses, but I gave preference to indoor games or warm weather games, and I aimed for kickers on teams that would be able to move the ball, but might not be able to punch it into the endzone.  Obviously it's all guesswork, but at the end of the season, my culmination of kickers combined for 148 points.   The top kicker was David Akers with a freakish 186, but second was John Kasay (who went undrafted because he wasn't even supposed to be the starter) with 151.  My assortment of kickers ranked 3rd, ahead of Gostkowski, Crosby, Janikowski, and whoever else got drafted 4 rounds too early.  So in other words, boo-yah.

As for defenses, I wasn't quite as awesome, but playing the matchup is a lot tougher.  I opted mostly to go against lousy quarterbacks (often Gabbert or McCoy), or lousy offensive lines (Arizona and St. Louis come to mind).  It's tough because often you have a good analysis, but then your fantasy DST gets smoked by garbage time points.  My shuffling of DSTs in that same league netted me 185 points; again, never playing the same defense more than twice in a row, and often playing a defense that nobody would have dared to play.  This only ranked 8th among defenses, but was within 1 point per week of the #3 defense in terms of points.  Also, the top defenses drafted were the Jets and Steelers (going as high as the 7th round), and these defenses ended up ranked 6th and 14th in fantasy points.  The top 2 fantasy DSTs in 2011 (San Fran and Chicago) were drafted somewhere between 8th and 12th among DSTs.

So all that said, I'll be vying for the same strategy this year, in all 4 leagues I care about, and in the 7 or so other leagues that I'll be vaguely checking throughout the season.

Here are my initial thoughts regarding week one:

Wednesday - September 5 (Less than one week away!!)
Cowboys @ Giants - Predicted Line: NYG by 3.5

All the talk will be about Dez Bryant's strip clubs, Jason Witten's rib injury, Miles Austin's new girlfriend, and of course the color of Tony Romo's shoelaces.  But it's the Giants who are reigning champs, and they'll relish the role of the forgotten underdog once again.  However, I think Dallas is the more talented team now that they've furbished the secondary.  With stud CB Brandon Carr likely on Nicks, it'll be rookie Morris Claiborne matching up with Victor Cruz, which makes Cruz a nice play. Claiborne's a stud in the making, but he's a rookie and Eli Manning knows how to school rookies.  I'd play Cruz with confidence, but I'd sit Nicks if I had a better option.  Ahmad Bradshaw should have a solid game too; Dallas has work to do on their front 7.

For the Cowboys, I'd take the wait-and-see approach with the receivers.  For one thing, the Giants' pass rush is insane and might give Romo no time for the deep ball. For another, we don't know if Austin or Dez will be Romo's favorite target, or if they'll end up with some kind of 50/50 split.  The safest Cowboy in this game is DeMarco Murray, as the Boys will try to neutralize JPP and the pass rush by running the ball.

I'd avoid both defenses, though the Giants might rack up some sacks.  Both kickers are good plays.

Sunday - September 9
Colts @ Bears - Predicted Line: CHI by 6.5 

Andrew Luck's first game is at Soldier Field ... against Peppers, Briggs and Urlacher ... that kind of sucks. Still, I don't expect him to get destroyed.  I think this game will be low-scoring, with Forte carrying the heavy load and leading the Bears to a slim win (but wait, I'll make my official picks later).  For the most part, Brandon Marshall should be started every week; however, he'll be facing stud CB Vontae Davis in this contest (his Dolphin teammate from last year).  That Davis-to-Indy trade didn't get nearly enough attention.  It might have shaken up the entire AFC South.  Anytime you add a top-5-at-his-position guy to your terrible defense, it changes things.  Just like when Houston added Jonathan Joseph last year.  A shutdown corner might be exactly what the Colts needed to rejuvenate the Freeney/Mathis machine.  Also worth noting: the Bears' O-line probably stinks, so this might be an upset in the making... maybe...?  I hope...? Okay, probably not.

So I'd play Marshall hesitantly; same with Cutler.  Forte is a stud.   For the Colts, stay away.  Luck will be spreading the ball around and trying to figure out how this NFL thing works.  Expect lots of screens, tight ends, scrambles, broken plays.  Not that you were thinking of playing many Colts anyway.  Although I wouldn't hate the idea of playing Coby Fleener in week one; he might be Luck's security blankey.

The Bears' DST is a solid play; even once-in-a-generation rookie QBs make mistakes.  Don't get cute and play the Indy DST.  Neither kicker is a good idea in the windiest stadium in the league. While we're on that topic, don't ever play a kicker in Pittsburgh either; Heinz Field is a muddy surface and kickers can't ever get their footing.

P.S. The Bears have officially surpassed Pittsburgh as my least favorite team in the NFL. Mainly because they're in the NFC North, but also because I detest the Cutler/Urlacher/Marinelli combo and I'm starting to warm up to Pittsburgh, thanks to the always adorable Pirates. My 2nd least favorite team is probably the Jets for how they're handling this stupid Sanchbow situation, and Pittsburgh comes in at #3.

Falcons @ Chiefs - Predicted Line: ATL by 2 

I think Julio Jones takes over the #1WR mantle in Atlanta this year, and I think it starts right away. I expect KC to put their stud CB (Brandon Flowers) on Jones, not Roddy White, and I think that sort of thing will happen all season.  And, I think Julio will still have a monster game, and a monster season, while Roddy declines.  I'd play Julio no matter what, but there's a chance Flowers misses this game with a broken foot, which makes Julio an even better play.  I'd stay away from Matt Ryan and Michael Turner as KC's defense is really solid up front, but I'd definitely recommend Tony Gonzalez, who played 12 seasons for KC and will be the most beloved player in the stadium.  Gonzo could score 3 TDs and the Arrowhead crowd would love every one of them.

For the Chiefs, I would probably rest anyone on their offense.  If you drafted Jamaal Charles you probably have to play him because you don't have a better RB option, but it doesn't sound like his ACL is totally better and this might end up being a long season of game-time decisions.  Definitely don't play Cassel, and probably not Bowe who draws a tough CB matchup.  Maybe Peyton Hillis solidifies his role as the goal-line guy, but wait and see.

Atlanta's defense is a good play here; KC will be looking to discover their offensive identity, and the Falcons should capitalize on a few Matt Cassel miscues.  Either kicker is worth a play too; KC should kick a few field goals, while Bryant should rack up 4 or 5 XPs for Atlanta.

Eagles @ Browns - Predicted Line: PHI by 5 

With DeSean Jackson drawing the tough matchup of CB Joe Haden, that makes Jeremy Maclin a pretty enticing play. You obviously want to play LeSean McCoy every week, and you might as well roll out Vick as long as he's healthy, especially against a poor defense such as Cleveland.  The injury of LT Jason Peters is going to cripple Philly's season and probably Vick's health, but Cleveland doesn't have the personnel to make much of a difference this week.

In Brandon Weeden's first game, the Eagles DST makes an obviously great play. Trent Cole will be limited by All Pro Joe Thomas, but that opens up Babin for a multiple sack game. It will be interesting to see if the much-maligned Eagles' "wide nine" defense is improved by the changes they made, particularly 1st round pick Fletcher Cox, who will start from week one at DT. Asomugha should easily shut down ... oh wait, never mind, the Browns don't have any receivers ... as for Trent Richardson, if you drafted him, you've gotta give him a shot. The Browns will be trying to play catch up late, but that probably just means Weeden checks down to T-Rich for a bunch of screen plays.

Patriots @ Titans - Predicted Line: NE by 5.5 

Jake Locker gets a lucky break: beginning the year at home against a bad secondary.  New England's defense did make a few adjustments and will be a little better, but they'll still give up lots of yards, particularly late in games.  Their favorite strategy is to score a lot early, then fall apart and watch the defense blow the game.  It worked in the Super Bowl, so they'll probably keep rolling with that gameplan.  (Just kidding - I still have them going 19-0, but I do hate how their defense can't even hold on to a 3-touchdown lead).

Brady, Gronk and Welker are obvious ... and I'd give Lloyd the start since Tennessee doesn't have a shutdown CB. Hernandez is an easy play too.  Unless you are a nihilist who enjoys suffering, don't ever play a Patriots' running back.  And if you drafted their kicker in the 5th round like an idiot, go ahead and play him and enjoy the 5 XPs.

Chris Johnson is another no-doubter ... other than that, you may want to try out TE Jared Cook and WR Nate Washington ... it is likely (though not official) that WR Kenny Britt will begin the year with a 1 or 2 game suspension. Don't ever play a defense against Tom Brady (duh), and if you can pick up a kicker who goes against New England, it's usually a good move as they try to play catch up.

Jags @ Vikings - Predicted Line: MIN by 3.5 

With MJD holding out and AP recovering from ACL surgery, this could be the worst NFL game in history.  Play Harvin, but that's probably it. Rashad Jennings will likely carry the ball for Jacksonville, and I've not been impressed by him. Same goes for Gerhart for the Vikings. Both teams have better defenses than people think, so this should be a punt-a-thon.

I drafted the Vikings defense in almost all of my leagues. Picking on Blaine Gabbert on the road is a pretty safe deal.

Redskins @ Saints - Predicted Line: NO by 5

RG3 versus Bountygate ... two of the most overhyped topics of the offseason. This line will end up being a few points too low because people can't wait to bet on RG3.

Play Brees and Graham no matter what ... and Colston and Sproles in this instance.  Guys like Mark Ingram and Lance Moore and Devery Henderson will make interesting matchup plays later on ... but this early in the season, there aren't enough injuries to make those guys valuable. They're too inconsistent and should only be used against godawful defenses.  The Saints D is a risky play, but should pan out against the rookie on the road.

On the flip side, I would probably not play RG3 ... but I wouldn't blame you if you did.  Don't ever play a Redskins running back as long as Mike Shanahan is there.  Seriously, ever.  And take your chances on Garcon or Santana if you want, but don't expect a whole lot.  TE Fred Davis is the best Redskin to play; he got a vote of confidence when the team released Chris Cooley, and he'll be Griffin's checkdown.

A few simple rules: don't play a DST against Brees, and do play the Saints' kicker in the Superdome unless they're playing an elite defense.

Bills @ Jets - Predicted Line:  NYJ by 1.5 

Over/under for how many times the announcers say the word "Tebow" in this game - 4,265.  I'll take the over.

Revis will shut down Steve Johnson, making him unplayable.  That probably means a good game from Fred Jackson as the Bills keep the ball on the ground.  CJ Spiller is a decent play too, as he should handle the 3rd downs. If you're feeling crazy or if you want to pick on the deteriorating Jets' defense, try Donald Jones, who seems to have secured the #2WR job. He's not overly talented, but when Revis takes away half the field, the other receivers tend to step up.  Fitzpatrick isn't a bad option, but you can surely do better.

For the Jets, it's really iffy.  Santonio Holmes is a bum in more ways than one; Shonn Greene has repeatedly proven himself to be mediocre; and Dustin Keller is as unspectacular as you can get.  Clearly, you don't want to play Sanchez,  Truly, Tim Tebow might be the best fantasy option for the Jets this week, as he'll probably handle the goal-line stuff and run for a TD.

I don't know when Tebow will take over as the starting quarterback, but my guess would be somewhere around week 6.

I'm starting to fade a little bit on my early offseason love for the Bills (my new darling teams are actually Tennessee and San Diego, for what it's worth), but I think the Jets are just too much of a mess to be taken seriously.  Stupid hype has replaced a good deal of talent and this team is ready for a complete overhaul.  This should be the first of many Jets' losses.

Rams @ Lions - Predicted Line: DET by 8.5

The addition of Cortland Finnegan gives the Rams a legitimate CB to stick on Megatron, but it won't make any difference.  They'll still double team him and he'll still put up 15+ fantasy points. My guess is the Madden Curse won't strike this early.

Stafford and Pettigrew need to be in your lineup, and either Titus or Burleson will have a nice game, but I'm not sure which one.  I drafted Titus in most of my leagues, so I'll be rolling him out against the Rams' awful defense and expecting something like 4 catches for 50 yards and a score.  With Best on the PUP list and Leshoure suspended, it'll be Kevin Smith who ... wait, never mind, he's hurt again ... it'll be Keiland Williams who carries the ball for Detroit.  Hmm ... thank goodness we can just throw the ball 60 times.  Let's hope Backus can keep Chris Long from disrupting the pocket, though Stafford has become so good at going through his reads and getting rid of the ball quickly, I don't think there's any way the Rams contain our offense whatsoever.   It'll just come down to executing on third downs, and not settling for field goals.

The Lions' D is an enigma.  We still don't know who will start opposite Chris Houston at CB (probably Jacob Lacey ... blah), and we don't know what the D-line will look like, with Willie Young playing a lot better than Kyle VandenBosch these days, but Schwartz being loyal to KVB since their Tennessee days. (Interesting side-story: Schwartz's former boss, Jeff Fisher, will be making his debut for the Rams. Fisher might be the only NFL coach that Schwartz has one ounce of respect for.)    Any contribution we get from Pothead Fairley will be a surprise, and the safeties are a huge liability, especially in coverage.  It'll be up to Stephon Tulloch to anchor the run defense, which I think he's capable of doing.

The key to the game will be containing Steven Jackson and forcing Bradford to throw ... mainly because he has no play-making receivers. We should do a decent but not excellent job in that area; I'll gladly start Jackson but expect a modest 80ish yards and 1 TD.  No other Rams should even be considered at this point.

Hanson and the Lions D are both very solid plays.   When's the last time we went into week one expecting to win by double digits?  Amazing.

Dolphins @ Texans - Predicted Line: HOU by 13 

By trading Vontae Davis and Brandon Marshall, the Fins are proving their commitment to be utterly noncompetitive. By starting Ryan Tannehill, they've given themselves even less of a chance.  Why not just fire Joe Philbin now and get it over with?

Houston won't have the elite defense they had last year, but for this week they're the top fantasy D.  Miami has no receivers to bail out Tannehill, and they won't be able to rely on the run game to keep him out of passing downs, because Reggie Bush can't run between the tackles and Daniel Thomas is barely as fast as a fullback.  No Miami players should even be considered, except Bush in PPR leagues.  I highly doubt they'll score more than 1 touchdown.

For Houston, you've gotta have Andre and Foster active.  Miami's D is pretty good (though it got a lot worse by trading Davis), so I wouldn't fully endorse Schaub.  Also, Houston's O-line lost two starters, so we'll see what effect that has.  Houston will go up early and then be content to run the ball, which is why I love Ben Tate (the league's best backup RB) and will play him in multiple leagues.

49ers @ Packers - Predicted Line:  GB by 5.5

League's best offense against league's best defense?  Perhaps.But the Niners don't have the secondary to contain Rodgers, so don't even think about benching him, or Jennings, Jordy, or Finley.  And if you drafted the Niners D way too early, you probably want to pick up someone else for this week.No Packers' RBs should be played pretty much ever. Crosby is solid.

On the other side, I expect San Fran to try to control the clock by using their trio of backs: Gore, Kendall Hunter and rookie LaMichael James (Brandon Jacobs is out with a knee).  Frank Gore has slowly slipped into a RBBC situation, but he's still the guy to own there.  In the passing game, you definitely want to start Vernon Davis ... but between Crabtree and Manningham, I don't expect much.  Let's see if either guy distances himself from the other, or if a 3rd WR emerges.  Alex Smith, if you're desperate, could rack up numbers against the pass defense that allowed a league-worst 300 yards per game in 2011.  But you're probably not that desperate.  Akers set an NFL record last year with something like 42 field goals, so play him if you have him.

Seahawks @ Cardinals - Predicted Line: ARZ by 3

Let's see ... the undersized rookie QB who was taken with the 75th overall pick ... or John Skelton, the pride of Fordham College, with a career passer rating under 67.   Perhaps the best fantasy players in this game are the defenses.

It'll be interesting to see if Russell Wilson pans out.  I am very impressed with him on Youtube, but the speed of the NFL often catches up with scrambling QBs.  He certainly shouldn't be starting for your fantasy team, but he's worth adding if you have a free roster spot.  I wouldn't bet against him having 50 rushing yards and 15 fantasy points in this game.

Fitzgerald is the only stud in this game, unless you trust a no-longer-motivated Marshawn Lynch, which I don't. Seattle's passing offense will be mostly nonexistent, and Arizona's running game will be a timeshare between Beanie and Ryan Williams.  Neither guy should be played yet; wait and see which guy gets hurt first, and then the other guy has some value.

Panthers @ Bucs - Predicted Line:  CAR by 1.5

Though Tampa had the splashiest free agency with Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, Carolina is the darling of the NFC South thanks to Cam Newton, who exceeded all expectations last year.  His game log, however, shows a steady decline throughout the season. Do you realize he threw for 299 yards per game in his first 8 contests,and 207 per game in the last 8?  That's a pretty serious ebb.

Tampa's D got a little better with rookie safety Mark Barron, plus CB Aqib Talib somehow avoided prison, and Gerald McCoy is finally healthy.  But the pass rush still stinks, and the linebackers are below average. So Cam should have a huge game.  Steve Smith is a bit of a risk against Talib, and no Panthers RB can be trusted.  A guy I like this year is WR Brandon LaFell, who appeared on pretty much every list of fantasy sleepers this summer. He should have a breakout season and might start to replace Smith midway through the year.

For the Bucs, I'm not among the Vincent Jackson supporters, even against this porous Panther secondary.  A guy who just wanted to get paid even if it meant going to a crappy team ... is not someone I trust to play at a consistently high level.  I actually prefer Mike Williams, who dogged me and countless others last year. Now that he becomes the possession receiver he should be more reliable. Arrelious Benn is a breakout candidate, but a longshot. The Carolina D is pretty easy to run on, so Blount and Doug Martin should each have 50 or 60 yards, with Blount probably handling the goal-line and Martin the 3rd downs, which makes neither guy very valuable.  Freeman is not a relevant fantasy QB at this point.  Neither defense is a good play, but both kickers are useable.

Steelers @ Broncos - Predicted Line:  Pick Em 

All the questions about Peyton Manning's status should be answered.  He played fine this preseason:  a few TDs, beat up on the Niners vaunted D, and threw deep to his right, which a lot of doubters said he couldn't do because of his neck.  He's back.  The Steelers will find that out Sunday night.

The question is, how rusty will he be?  Has he kept up with the game mentally?  His biggest asset was always  superior preparation and strategy - does he still have that?  He'll need it against the league's most instinctive defensive player (Poalmalu) and a ferocious band of pass rushers.  Denver's O-line is nothing special, and their run game probably won't be a factor.  Peyton is going to utilize a combination of Decker, Demaryius, Stokley, Tamme, and Dressen, and I doubt Willis McGahee will be anything of a fantasy factor this year, nor will any Broncos' RB.  If it were me, I would play Peyton week one, despite a myriad of concerns..  The Steelers D is dominant, for sure, but Manning has faced them a million times in the past and he's almost always been successful.

The Steelers' offense is in flux.  Rashard Mendenhall just came off the PUP list, but he won't play week one. Backup Isaac Redman (whom I drafted a bunch of times) is questionable with an ankle.  If Redman is out, I will be picking up Jonathan Dwyer and playing him with confidence in a few leagues. He's basically a power back with good speed.  If Redman plays, he'll probably split 50/50 with Dwyer.  I think Redman probably plays, but who knows.

Then, the receivers.  Mike Wallace just reported to camp, finally, after a 35 day holdout which didn't help him at all with his contract.  Antonio Brown has become the #1WR for Roethlisberger now. Actually, you could argue he became that last season.  Wallace had more yards and catches in his first 3 games (21 for 377) than in his last 6 games (19 for 271), and that was while still healthy.  Big Ben just started preferring Brown, who wasn't bitching about a contract but just running great routes and making great catches.  If you extrapolate Brown's receiving yards and catches from week 8 onward and make that an entire season, it's 88 catches for 1,488 yards, basically Larry Fitzgerald type numbers.  Brown didn't find the endzone much, but that'll change this year.  He's a legit #1 fantasy receiver.  But, having Wallace back on the field complicates things. He's still the deep threat, assuming he's as fast as he was last year.  The interesting thing will be, who does Champ Bailey line up against?

The Steelers young O-line will struggle against Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.  Rookie guard and stud-in-the-making David DeCastro is going to miss 8 week or so with an MCL, which doesn't help their cause.  But that's okay - Big Ben can just keep doing his patented "let the defensive line run into me and I'll just stand there" routine, while he miraculously converts 3rd and 30 like it's no big deal.  I hate that guy.

It's tempting to play the Steelers defense, since they have so many stud playser.  But my philosophy is always to play the matchup, and you probably don't want to go against Peyton Manning if you don't have to.

Monday Night
Bengals @ Ravens - Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5 

It turns out that Terrell Suggs might not miss the entire season. But he'll definitely miss at least 6 weeks, and likely more.  Baltimore still has a great defense, but it's pretty impossible to replace the reigning Defensive MVP. That said, I still don't like Andy Dalton and think he suffers a slump similar to what we saw from Bradford and Freeman last year.  The main difference is, of course, Dalton has AJ Green.

Green is a definite stud who should always be in your fantasy lineup, but Baltimore's Lardarious Webb is one of the best corners in the league and will limit Green quite a bit.  Webb was the only starting CB who didn't give up a receiving TD last year, and he allowed an average QB rating of 55.6 on passes thrown in his direction.  Dang. Start Green in trepidation.

Benjarvus is a risky play against Haloti Ngata and Ray Lewis and that front 7, but he should amass a large enough workload to pay off.  Something like 25 carries for 80 yards, maybe a score.  No other Bengal is a very good play.

Ray Rice is a must-start guy every week ... but the rest of Baltimore's offense is very blah.  Will Torrey Smith emerge as a go-to receiver?  Does Anquan Boldin have anything left?  Nah, my guess is Baltimore tries to mold into a "spread the ball around" offense, heavily utilizing their young tight ends (Pitta and Dickson), in an effort to copy the Pats.  But of course, Rice will still carry the heavy bulk of the offense.

Also on Monday Night 
Chargers @ Raiders - Predicted Line: SD by 2.5 

This has all the makings of a barnburner.  Both teams like to throw early and often and deep.  There will be a good mix of running (certainly you should start McFadden and Matthews if he's healthy), but it's a good bet that both QBs throw for 400 yards.  I love Rivers for a bounceback season, largely because of an easy schedule but also because of low expectations.  Last year he was everyone's pick for MVP, including mine.  This year, everyone has written him off and dropped him below Stafford/Eli/Newton and others on the QB hierarchy.  My guess is, a fiery competitor like Rivers is taking that personally.

Further, last year he dealt with V-Jack's holdout and Gates' countless injuries, plus the departure of his safety valve, Darren Sproles.  Now, he has a healthy Gates (supposedly), a new slot receiver (Eddie Royal), a new weapon who knows how be part of a high-octane, spread-around offense (Meachem), and an old buddy who knows the offense (Floyd).  I love Rivers this year, not necessarily to win 10 games, but to possibly throw for 5,000 yards.

The Chargers defense is probably going to suck.  They got a steal in the draft with Melvin Ingram falling to them at pick #18, and they have a couple of solid young players in DT Corey Liuget and OLB Larry English, but the secondary is in rough shape, as is the run defense.  Carson Palmer will rack up the numbers in one of his typical 2 TD, 3 INT games.  Get both kickers in your lineup, and both defenses out.

That's all the games. Hope it was 6,000 words worth reading.  My week one picks will be up shortly.  GO LIONS!! 

NFL Odds

Last year, I picked each team's over/under and assigned each pick with a level of confidence.  Although I ended up at .500 with 14 wins and 14 loses (and a few abstains), my overall confidence votes favored slightly on the winning side. This year, I decided to switch it up a little and limit the number of over/under predictions to the 20 teams I felt most convinced about, while using updated Vegas odds and making imaginary bets that reflect my confidence in the pick and in the odds.  (There are various sites that show various odds, but I found these at the Bovada Sportsbook, which seems to be reputable.)

I also went ahead and made some 'Prop' bets, for a total of 38 bets for the 2012 regular season, and a total (pretend) wager of $2,065.

Here you go:

TEAM OVER/UNDER BETS
     
Arizona, under 7 wins            
-150 Odds             $40 bet          
$26.80 profit           $66.80 return
Why - Tough schedule, bad QB.

Note -
Odds of -150 means if you bet $150, you get $100 back.
Odds of +150 means if you bet $100, you get $150 back.
Etc.

Baltimore, under 10 wins      
-130 Odds             $40 bet        
$30.80 profit            $70.80 return
Why - Suggs' injury.

Buffalo, over 8 wins              
EVEN Odds          $50 bet          
$50.00 profit            $100.00 return
Why - This is their year.

Chicago, under 9.5 wins        
-130 Odds            $60 bet          
$46.20 profit           $106.20 return
Why - 9.5 is way too high. Defense is declining.

Cincinnati, under 8 wins        
-110 Odds             $70 bet        
$63.70 profit            $133.70 return
Why - They overachieved last year. Also, Dalton has red hair.

Dallas, over 8.5 wins              
-140 Odds           $50 bet          
$35.50 profit           $85.50 return
-Turned their biggest weakness (CB) into a strength.

Denver, over 9 wins              
-120 Odds             $50 bet          
$41.50 profit           $91.50 return
Why - Pretty sold on Peyton.

Green Bay, over 12 wins        
-115 Odds            $70 bet        
$60.90 profit          $130.90 return
Why - They won 15 last year.

Indy, over 5 wins                    
-125 Odds            $60 bet          
$48.00 profit          $108.00 return
Why - Andrew Luck is going to be awesome.

Jacksonville, under 5.5 wins    
EVEN Odds         $90 bet          
$90.00 profit          $180.00 return
Why - Worst QB in the NFL.

Miami, under 7 wins
-130 Odds,       $90 bet
$69.30 profit      $159.30 return
Why - Tannehill? 7 wins? Really??

Minnesota, over 5.5 wins
-125 Odds,        $40 bet
$32.00 profit        $72.00 return
Why - Never underestimate the Vikings.

New England, over 12 wins
-115 Odds,        $80 bet
$69.60 profit,        $149.60 return
Why - They're going 19-0.

NY Jets, under 9 wins
+120 Odds,       $60 bet
$72.00 profit,        $132.00 return
Why - Hype doesn't lead to wins.

Oakland, under 7 wins
-130 Odds,        $80 bet
$61.60 profit,       $141.60 return
Why - Worst team in the league.

Pittsburgh, over 10 wins
-115 Odds,       $50 bet
$43.50 profit,         $93.50 return
Why - Consistency, great at home, weak division.

San Francisco, under 10 wins
-120 Odds,     $70 bet
$58.10 profit,      $128.10 return
Why - Mostly Alex Smith.

Seattle, under 7.5 wins
+120 Odds,      $100 bet
$120.00 profit,     $220.00 return
Why - 8 wins? Really?   And I get Plus odds for this???

Tennessee, under 7.5 wins
+120 Odds,     $60 bet
$72.00 profit,   $132.00 return
Why - Defense lost its best player.

Washington, under 6.5 wins
-140 Odds,   $30 bet
$21.30 profit,   $51.30 return
Why - Tough division, rookie QB.

PROP BETS:

Offensive Rookie of the Year, Andrew Luck
+150 Odds,        $50 bet
$75.00 profit,     $125.00 return
Why - As I mentioned, he's going to be awesome. Offensive ROY is a three-man race between Luck, RG3 and Richardson, and Luck has the best chance to stay healthy. RG3 is the favorite, of course, with even Odds.

Defensive Rookie of the Year, Dont'a Hightower (Patriots)
+750 Odds,      $50 bet
$375.00 profit,     $425.00 return
Why - A longshot, obviously, but a freak talent.

Defensive Player of the Year, Melvin Ingram (Chargers)
+1350 Odds,     $20 bet
$270.00 profit,     $290.00 return
Why - A lot of sacks can create a D-ROY, and he can get a lot of sacks.

 Defensive Player of the Year, Stephon Gilmore (Bills)
+1125 Odds,     $20 bet
$225.00 profit,    $245.00 return
Why - Chance for a lot of INTs behind that great pass rush.

Aaron Rodgers +3 passing TDs more than Matt Stafford, regular season only
-120 Odds,     $75 bet
$62.47 profit,    $137.47 return
Why - Mostly because of the Madden Curse. Also, common sense.

Jay Cutler +1 passing TDs more than Michael Vick, regular season only
-115 Odds,    $100 bet
$86.90 profit,    $186.90 return
Why - Easy money.  Vick misses at least 3 or 4 games.

Andrew Luck +2.5 passing TDs more than Robert Griffin, regular season only
-105 Odds,    $100 bet
$95.20 profit,   $195.20 return
Why - RG3 will be running too much near the goal line.

Detroit Lions team, under 18.5 interceptions
-110 Odds,    $50 bet
$45.45 profit,     $95.45 return
Why - Just not any ballhawks in the secondary.

Colts win AFC South
+1700 Odds,    $25 bet
$425.00 profit,   $450 return
Why - One big injury to Schaub and the division is up for grabs.

Broncos win AFC West
+155 Odds,    $50 bet
$77.50 profit,    $127.50 return
Why - Pretty sold on Peyton, and down on San Diego.

Steelers win AFC North
-120 Odds,   $50 bet
$41.50 profit,    $91.50 return
Why - Mostly because of Suggs' injury.

Tom Brady, most passing yards, regular season
+350 Odds,    $20 bet
$70 profit,     $90 return
Why - Tough field here, but I like everything about the Pat's offense.


Tony Romo, most passing yards, regular season
+1150 Odds,   $20 bet
$230 profit,    $250 return
Why - A flier based on upside.

Patriots win AFC Championship
+150 Odds,    $75 bet
$112.50 profit,   $187.50 return
Why - As you can see, I'm all in on New England.

Bills win AFC Championship
+2500 Odds,   $20 bet
$500 profit,    $520 return
Why - Putting imaginary money where my mouth is.

Cowboys win NFC Championship
+1200 Odds,    $25 bet
$300 profit,    $325 return
Why - Dare I say they are underrated going into this year?

Brandon Marshall, most receiving yards, regular season
+1500 Odds,   $25 bet
$375 profit,    $400 return
Why - With Calvin's Curse and the Pats/Saints/Pack spreading the ball around so well, I think Marshall will be right near the top along with Fitz and Andre.  Wouldn't be my top choice against even odds, but +1500 is a good bargain.

Tim Tebow, total rushing TDs,  over 4.5
-115 Odds,    $50 bet
$43.50 profit,    $93.50 return
Why - I expect he'll be the Jets' goal-line back, and I think he probably starts at least a few games. This is easy money. My guess would be 7 or 8 rushing TDs.


So those are my 18 prop bets and 20 team bets.  $2,065 fake dollars on the line. I'll check back after week 17 and see how I did.   My guess is I end up with somewhere around $200 in profit ...


A few bets that I'm not making:

Calvin Johnson misses at least 1 game due to injury.
Yes  (-125 Odds)
No  (-105 Odds)

This couldn't be easier money. Even without the Curse, I would take the no.  I'd be willing to put $105 down right now and collect my $100 earnings within about 4 weeks of the season. Good thing I don't live near a casino.

Lions, over/under 9.5 wins
Over (+105)
Under (-135)

Leaning towards the over but don't feel great about it.  Too many weaknesses on this roster - the secondary, the running backs, the OLBs, the offensive line, intangibles, leadership, coaching ... also, several of the 10 games we won in 2011 involved a lot of luck.   I think we can win 10 or 11, maybe 12 games, but it's not going to be easy money until we address the weaknesses on the roster, instead of ignoring them.


GO LIONS.
And Pats.

RB Rankings

Now that the QBs, WRs and TEs are ranked, the hard work begins.

Take a look at the top running backs from last year's ESPN rankings.

Hillis ahead of Forte? DeAngelo ahead of Matthews? Moreno ahead of anyone?  What's McFadden doing back at 12, and how is Lynch back at 30? Look at some of the useless names in the 30s and 40s ... Joseph Addai, Tim Hightower, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Jerome Harrison ...  all of them ranked ahead of eventual studs Darren Sproles, DeMarco Murray, and Ben Tate.  What an embarrassment.

Then factor in major injuries to the players ranked at 1, 3, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 21, 23, 26 ... and the useless season by #2 (Chris Johnson) ... and you've got a holy unspectacular batch of fantasy running backs.

So, it stands to reason that when looking at this year's rankings, half of the RBs in the top 25 will either get hurt or completely suck. Kind of a defeating feeling.  But it's also useful because it allows me to rank the RBs however I want and ignore everyone else who claims to be an expert.  Because, based on previous years, the experts obviously don't know what they're doing.  Here are my RB rankings ...

1. Ray Rice, Ravens
Big contract and downgraded offensive line, but I've got Rice ranked #1 among RBs because I feel he's the safest starting RB with the lowest likelihood of a major injury.  He may not be as explosive as others, but he's a lock for about 50 receiving yards per game, and he gets all the goal-line carries.   Doesn't have any competition for carries.

2. Arian Foster, Texans
Same story as Rice - big contract and a weakened O-line.  Plus he's got to share carries with super backup Ben Tate.  I don't think Foster finishes the year as a top 5 RB in terms of yards and TDs, but as far as being a safe pick, I would take him above the next few guys.

3. Chris Johnson, Titans
I'm becoming more and more convinced that CJ will have a huge bounce back season.  I contemplated putting him above Foster, and maybe even #1. But then I looked at his 2011 game log again. 13 yards against Atlanta? 18 yards against Houston? 21 yards against Denver?  What the heck?  He could be the ultimate steal this year, or he could prove to be a complete bum.

4. Ryan Matthews, Chargers
In the past few weeks, I've had a change of heart with Matthews.  Everything I've read says Matthews is completely healthy, and Norv Turner wants to make him a "workhorse" back.  Last time Norv did something like that, LT was the best fantasy football player in the world.  Gotta like the precedent.

5. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
He's ranked too low (9th by ESPN) simply because he's still under-the-radar.  No way he should be ranked behind Marshawn Lynch.

6. Matt Forte, Bears
After years of trying to earn a big contract, Forte finally got one. 17 million guaranteed. Now, will his ambition be gone?  Will Brandon Marshall's arrival eat into Forte's production?  Also, will Michael Bush vulture the goal-line carries?  Legitimate concerns, but you gotta like his consistency, easy schedule and 50 catches per season.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jags
Everybody is so sure that MJD will "break down" this year.  I don't necessarily think he'll get hurt.  I just think he plays alongside one of the worst starting QBs ever, and won't get many chances to score.  Let's be honest, he only won the rushing title last year because of about 6 injuries.  Oh, I almost forgot to mention ... of the 4 RBs looking for big contracts, MJD was the only one who got nothing. Holdouts are super risky.

8. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
New big contract, star O-lineman hurt for the year, and just really seems due for an injury.  I'm not sure exactly why, but I don't trust him at all.

9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Love him as an RB2. Hate him as a RB1.  Quite a bit of risk with his health.  But with the revamped O-line and newly acquired blocking tight ends, he could easily run for 1,800 yards if his explosion is what it was in 2010. Not many TDs though.

10.   Darren McFadden, Raiders
Same as Charles. I wouldn't take him as a RB1 because of the risk ... but as an RB2, he's great.  Has the potential to be the most productive running back of anybody. Just needs to stay healthy.

11.  Trent Richardson, Browns
Forget about the fact that he's a rookie on a terrible team. He has the potential to make them a good team.

12. Fred Jackson, Bills
As with all the guys returning from injury ... RB2 yes, RB1, no.

13. Frank Gore, 49ers
The word is they want to platoon him with Jacobs/Hunter/James, so he's more of a safe RB2 but without a ton of upside.

14. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
Will put up lots of solid 70-80 yard games and should be the goal-line back now that Jacobs is gone. Nothing spectacular, but he continues to be drafted in the 4th/5th round which makes no sense.

15. Steven Jackson, Rams
16. Ben Tate, Texans
17. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
18. Michael Turner, Falcons
19. Jahvid Best, Lions
20. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
21. Darren Sproles, Saints
22. Isaac Redman, Steelers
23. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
24. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
25. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
26. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
27. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
28. Doug Martin, Bucs
29. Shonn Greene, Jets
30. Mark Ingram, Saints
31. James Starks, Packers
32. Donald Brown, Colts
33. Reggie Bush, Dolphins
34. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
35. CJ Spiller, Bills

... And so on with all the sleepers and handcuffs ...

Go Lions.

Fantasy Rankings - Tight Ends

Tight end is probably the hardest position to evaluate this fantasy season.  On one side of the spectrum, you've got Gronk and Graham putting up 1,300 yards and 13+ TDs and breaking Mike Ditka's records.  Gronk was the number 2 receiver last year behind only Megatron, and Graham was 6th.  So when those guys are getting picked in the top 15, it really does make sense.

On the other side, you've got guys like Fred Davis and Jermaine Gresham, who put up similar stats to WR David Nelson from Buffalo - 600 yards, 5 TDs.  Those guys will be starting in 12 team leagues every week. While David Nelson, the 55th receiver last year, won't be close to any starting lineups unless the matchup is pristine.

So the difficulty is not ranking the tight ends. That's pretty simple.  It's knowing where to take them. For the first time ever in fantasy football, tight ends are going in the first round.  (Gronk's ADP is 12, Graham's is 15). Then there's a gap of about three rounds before the next tier of tight ends (5 guys), and then another 20 to 30 picks until the final tier.  So unless you're in the camp that says take Gronk or Graham early (I'm not), when should you make the move? 4th round? 5th? 6th?  Or wait until the 10th and essentially resign yourself to playing the matchup all year? 


I'm never a big fan of using more than 1 roster spot on tight ends, but I also don't want to take a second-tier guy too early.  It's a precise timing thing.  It really comes down to understanding the guys your drafting with, and trying to beat the rush.  Also, if you're picking 1st or 12th overall, you probably want to start the run on tight ends, because during the 23 picks in between your selections, the entire second-tier could be gone.  But if you're somewhere near the middle of the order, be reactive instead of proactive. 


Basically, if you don't land a guy in that second-tier (Hernandez, Finley, Davis, Witten, Gates), you're going to be pretty miserable every time your guy has 2 catches for 35 yards.  



Here are my TE rankings: 


1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
Tom Brady's favorite target last year had 90 receptions, a league-best 17 TDs, and a stunning 14.7 yards-per-catch.  Personally, I don't think there's any chance he replicates those numbers.  Remember, Randy Moss dropped from 23 TDs to 11. With Welker leading the team in targets, Brandon Lloyd taking over as the downfield threat (presumably), and Aaron Hernandez continuing to emerge, Gronk is destined for a drop in numbers.  Which means, probably still 1,100 yards and 12 TDs ... but I consider him a late 2nd round pick, not a top 10 pick.  


2. Jimmy Graham, Saints
Graham was actually targeted on 25 more passes than Gronk was, but not nearly as many near the end zone.  He was essentially Drew Brees's possession receiver, and will reprise that role this year.  He's a better pure receiver than Marques Colston and is firmly established as Brees's favorite weapon.  If I were going to take a tight end in the first two rounds, I'd lean towards Graham, especially in a PPR league.  I'm thinking 1,400 yards and 9 TDs. 


3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
To prove just how big the gap is between Gronk/Graham and the next tier of tight ends, my #3 guy is also a Patriot. For a few reasons: 1) Bill Belichick pioneered this whole "two tight end" obsession, and will continue to utilize it;  2) Hernandez was 7th in TE targets despite sharing the load with Gronk;  3) Tom Brady is going to dominate like it's 2007; and 4) The Pats aren't afraid to run up the score. 


I actually think Hernandez will have more yards than Gronkowski.  Half as many TDs though.  


4. Vernon Davis, 49ers
I've always loved Davis, ever since he did this.  Probably the #1 receiver for a pretty good team, albeit with a less than average quarterback.  


5. JerMichael Finley, Packers
Everybody's sleeper last season, he disappointed with only 760 yards and 8 TDs, with 3 of those TDs coming in one game. Due to the unexpected emergence of Jordy Nelson, Finley ranked only 11th among tight ends in targets, and 3rd among Packers. Still, I'll rank him 5th because he's more of a freakish athlete than any other tight end, and thus has insane upside.  


6. Jason Witten, Cowboys
Doesn't get any more reliable than Witten, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years, and always catches 80+ balls for 900+ yards.  The TDs numbers are inconsistent, usually around 5 per year. But you can count on him for 50-60 yards every week. It helps that him and Tony Romo are BFFs.

7. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
As an Antonio Gates owner for the past two years, I'm fine with omitting Gates from the second tier.  I wouldn't touch him.  He's been a "game-time decision" for the past 24 months.  If you think he'll play, he won't, and vice versa.  Don't waste your time.   Instead, consider Pettigrew the top of tier 3.  Even if Megatron miraculously breaks the Curse, Pettigrew will still see Witten-like numbers, though not as many yards, thanks to the fact that Pettigrew is the slowest human being on earth.  

8. Antonio Gates, Chargers
Well, I suppose IF he is healthy, he'll be the best receiver Phillip Rivers has.  But I'll let somebody else gamble on his knees.

9. Jacob Tamme, Broncos
Upside: Tamme could be the new Dallas Clark, catching 10 TDs with 1,000 yards for a resurgent Peyton Manning. Downside: he could be a 4th round pick from the U of Kentucky who does absolutely nothing.  Personally, I like him, but I'm not totally sold.  


10. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
A spitting image of super slow Pettigrew, even down to the detail that AJ Green is a young Calvin.  The difference is that Dalton is no Stafford.  


11. Coby Fleener, Colts
Lots of other guys being taken ahead of Fleener, but I like the upside.  In case you slept through the NFL Draft, I'll remind you - Fleener was Andrew Luck's tight end at Stanford, and now they're together in Indy. More upside than the other TEs you can get here. 


12. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
I thought Gonzo was done last year, but he went for 875 yards and 7 TDs, ranking 4th among tight ends in fantasy points. There's a reason he's the best tight end of all time.  But at age 36, you've gotta wonder if he has any speed left.  I don't want to risk it. 


13. Fred Davis, Redskins
Lots of people like him as he replaces Chris Cooley and becomes the full time starter.  It's true that RG3 has no one else to throw to, and it's also true that athletically he is elite like Finley and Vernon Davis.  But I just don't trust punks from USC.  Also, not a big believer in RG3, as you know.  


14. Jared Cook, Titans
Another popular sleeper, often going in that second tier.  Cook is almost exactly the same size and speed as JerMichael Finley, and went nuts at the end of 2011 with 330 yards in the last 3 games. But there are concerns about maturity and intelligence. Also, the Titans stink. If you're a big believer in Jake Locker, this is your guy.  If Kenny Britt gets suspended for his DUI (probably will), I guess we can slide Cook up to 10th, especially if the suspension is 4 games.  Keep an eye on that.    


15. Brent Celek, Eagles
Michael Vick doesn't like him, but when Vick gets hurt Celek becomes productive.  


16. Owen Daniels, Texans
Can't seem to stay healthy, but due to the lack of a #2 receiver in Houston, Daniels is sometimes productive.

17. Greg Olsen, Panthers
A decent sleeper.

18. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
Another solid sleeper.  A better keeper than sleeper.

19. Ed Dickson, Ravens
I could see Baltimore moving to a Patriots-style offense, and Dickson might become very useful.

20. Dustin Keller, Jets
They don't have much going on at receiver.  Keller has some speed.

Others ...

Heath Miller, Steelers - A reliable 30 yards per game.
Martellus Bennett, Giants - The only TE they have right now.
Kellen Winslow, Seahawks - An unparalleled moron.
Zach Miller, Seahawks - A colossal bust in 2011.
Lance Kendricks, Rams - 2nd round pick last year.
Anthony Fasano, Dolphins - Will pick up some of targets left by Brandon Marshall.
Dennis Pitta, Ravens - 4 TDs in the last 8 games last year.
Dallas Clark, Bucs - The ultimate gamble. Will he even make the team?
Tony Moeaki, Chiefs - Coming off a torn ACL.  Probably won't be much use.
Todd Heap, Cardinals - Did you know Todd Heap was on the Cardinals? Me neither.


Go Lions.  

A Few Mock Drafts ...

Fantasy football season is in full swing!

I know this because
1. There are unintelligible lists of scribbled paper all over my nightstand. Some are written on the back of electric bills.  I feel like Ben Linus.  (All those lisssssts.)
2. I just got done rankings the WRs, QBs, and I'm working on the TEs.
3. And most of all, because I have completed 5 mock drafts.

Here are my results:

League 1 - Morgan Mosquitoes
Standard scoring. Ten teams. 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex.  Nothing unusual. Picked 1st overall.

Took Aaron Rodgers happily and confidently.
The next 18 picks featured a shockingly low number of RBs (only 8), along with 5 QBs, 4 WRs and 1 Gronk.
With the 20th pick I was able to land my #9 player overall, Matt Forte.  At 21 I paired Rodgers with Greg Jennings. Too many eggs in one basket, or an unbeatable force?

The next 18 picks included only one QB (Eli;  Brady, Brees, Vick, Cam and Stafford went early; Rivers and Romo still available at 40) and one TE (Graham) and 9 WRs along with 7 RBs. Some great bargains (Nicks 38 overall, Charles 34 overall) and some reaches (Welker at 23, Cruz at 26).  I went with Fred Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw.  I neglected the WR position here for three reasons: 1) Great RB value, 2) With all the injuries to RBs, I wanted to get three reliable starters, and 3) I have a gut feeling I can wait til 60 and get either Demaryius Thomas or Percy Harvin.  Also, I love Bradshaw and Fred, so no apologies.

Lots of terrible picks in rounds 5 and 6. Roy Helu, Reggie Bush, Shonn Greene, Antonio Gates ... also Rivers goes 54, Romo 58, and Peyton 59.  Everybody has a QB now. I lost both Percy and Demaryius at 53 and 57. Doh! 


At 60 and 61, I don't like any of the WRs. Vincent Jackson? Eric Decker? Nah. Seems too soon. I went with another RB, Isaac Redman, and then Aaron Hernandez, the 5th TE off the board.  I'm expecting a run on tight ends in rounds 7 and 8, and don't want to be stuck with Tony Gonzalez.  Plus, (spoiler alert) Aaron Hernandez is my #3 tight end.  


Sure enough, the next two rounds are a feast of tight ends (4 off the board), as well as the first three DSTs (49ers, Texans, Ravens).  Way too soon for a defense.  There is never a sure-thing defense, but especially not this year.  We also saw a couple backup QBs go (RG3 and Ryan). The Matt Ryan pick was stupid because he already had Tom Brady.  


At 80, I'm realizing I should have gone receiver back at the 4th/5th round juncture. Maybe should have gone Miles Austin instead of Ahmad Bradshaw.  Now, I'm stuck with Denarius Moore and Torrey Smith.  Oh well. Should give me some big games with plenty of inconsistency.  Ideally, I'll play the matchup between those two and not have to start both. 


The next 18 picks are a shmorgishborg - 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 DSTs, 2 TEs - it's clearly teams filling needs and looking for 'best player available.' An amazing number of awful picks in here: Felix Jones, Sidney Rice, Shane Vereen, Alex Smith, Seattle DST, Laurent Robinson ... guys that will go undrafted in most leagues shoudn't be taken in the 9th and 10th round.  


I'm back up at 100 and 101 and go with Toby Gerhart (will start for AP for a while) and Reggie Wayne. Since when can you get Reggie Wayne outside of the top 100? Weird.  The Gerhart pick is actually extremely calculated. I'm thinking AP misses 5 or 6 games, and the Vikes' early schedule features a few crappy teams (JAC, TEN, IND, WAS).  He might make a spot-start for me during that time, and if AP misses the whole year, I just landed a starting RB in the 10th round. 


Rounds 11 and 12 separate the idiots from the geniuses.  You can waste a pick on Randy Moss, who probably won't even make San Fran's roster, and Josh Freeman, who shouldn't be on any fantasy rosters, or you can make shrewd picks like TE Jared Cook and Jacquizz Rodgers. That can make all the difference. I end up with Titus Young (for after the Curse strikes) and Jacob Tamme (sleeper TE, potential trade bait). 


Rounding out the last three rounds, I take the Jets D, the Bears kicker, and one of my favorite super sleepers, RB Isaiah Pead. Remember, never take more than one defense, and never put any thought into your kicker. The best strategy is to just look at the first 2 or 3 weeks of the schedule and pick a kicker and defense with good matchups. Then drop them and play the matchup all year.  Let some other idiot take Janikowski in the 9th round.  


Final roster: 


QB - 
Aaron Rodgers, GB


RBs - 
Matt Forte, CHI
Fred Jackson, BUF
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
Isaac Redman, PIT
Toby Gerhart, MIN
Isaiah Pead, STL


WRs - 
Greg Jennings, GB
Torrey Smith, BAL
Denarius Moore, OAK
Reggie Wayne, IND
Titus Young, DET


TEs - 
Aaron Hernandez, NE
Jacob Tamme, DEN


K- Robbie Gould

DST - Jets 


Weak at receiver for sure, but that team will get the job done.

League 2 - Morgan's Macaroni 


10 teams, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 flex. Point per reception (PPR). Picking 10th.

Three QBs predictably gone in the top 8.  If I pass on QB now, I'm waiting til 30. I expect that either Eli or Romo (my 4th and 5th QBs) will be available at 30, because Cam and Stafford are typically going before Eli and Romo.  If I'm wrong, I'll be pretty happy with Cam or Stafford at 30. If all 4 are gone, I'll be a little disappointed because I'll have to reach for Peyton or Rivers.  It's a calculated risk, but I pass on QB and with the 11th and 12th picks I take the best RB on my board (Chris Johnson) and the best receiver (Fitzgerald). Could have gone Jennings, but in PPR format Fitz is better.

Eli goes 15th, Stafford 16th, then Cam 19th. I'm screwed. Romo goes right before me, at 28.  That's seven QBs in the top 28 picks.  Yikes.  That's the danger of picking 1st or last in a draft; you wait so long between picks that you can lose all the players you want in one nasty swoop.

At 30, I almost go Rivers, but then I realize only 2 teams besides me still need a QB, and Rivers, Peyton and Vick are on the board. I take another calculated risk and pass on QB again, hoping that I end up with Peyton on the next go-round.  I can't resist Jamaal Charles at 30 and then take Julio Jones at 31.

The risk pays off this time, as Vick and Rivers are taken but Peyton falls to me at pick 50. This is an easy pick; the only question now is how long do I wait to take Peyton's backup?  At 51, I go Colston. He's good for 80+ catches which is huge in a PPR league.

I get two PPR specialists with the next two picks - Steve Johnson and Jason Witten.  I think the other owners don't know this is a PPR league.   After that, I somehow end up with Aaron Hernandez at pick 90 (what the heck?) and then snatch Matt Ryan in case Peyton doesn't hold up.  I know I just took a second TE when I only have 2 RBs, how can you pass on Aaron Hernandez in the 9th round, especially in PPR? He caught 79 balls last year. He's a better flex player than any WR or RB at this point.

The DST run begins, which is good because I need some RBs with my next 2 picks.  The best I can do is James Starks and Donald Brown.  Ugh.  Going to need Charles and Chris Johnson to stay healthy or I'm sunk.

My next two picks are two guys who only have value in PPR leagues - WRs Danny Amendola and Davonne Bess. Neither will score more than 5 TDs, but both should grab 60+ passes. Probably should have taken more RB depth, but nobody was there worth taking.  Eighteen picks later, I land a couple of sleeper RBs in Ryan Williams and Rashard Mendenhall. The goal would be that Mendenhall is healthy by the time one of my starting RBs get hurt.

Last two picks are the Vikings D and Titans kicker. I like the Vikings D because they play at home against Blaine Gabbert week 1. After that I'll drop them.

Final roster:

QBs -
Peyton Manning, DEN
Matt Ryan, ATL

RBs -
Chris Johnson, TEN
Jamaal Charles, KC
James Starks, GB
Donald Brown, IND
Ryan Williams, ARZ
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT

WRs -
Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
Julio Jones, ATL
Marques Colston, NO
Steve Johnson, BUF
Danny Amendola, STL
Davonne Bess, MIA

TEs -
Jason Witten, DAL
Aaron Hernandez, NE

K - Rob Bironas, TEN

DST - Vikings

The only weakness this time has is depth at RB.  If CJ and Charles stay healthy, I'm going to dominate.  My WR and TE depth is amazing.


I'll probably look to leverage my WR depth for a trade. If Amendola grabs 9 balls in week 1 or something, I'll package him and Colston for a decent RB.  I trust both Steve Johnson or Colston to be my every-week flex, so I'll gladly trade either of them.  


Of course, the other weakness of this team is the unknown status of Peyton Manning.  I'm a little bummed to be the 10th guy to grab a QB, but getting arguably the best QB of all time isn't so bad. 


League 3 - Morgan's Mustache


This is where it starts to get awesome and somewhat neurotic. This league starts 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 3 flex, 7 individual defensive players (IDPs), and 1 head coach.  The coach gets 10 points for a blowout win, 6 points for a good win, 3 points for a close win, and 0 for a loss. This is a PPR league as well. 


Points for IDPs are based on solo tackles (1 point apiece), sacks (2), INTs (3), fumbles (3) and TDs (6).  You start 2 linebackers, 2 DL, 2 DB, and one flex IDP.


I'm picking 4th. Let the awesomeness begin.  


Rice, Foster, Rodgers go 1, 2, and 3.  Following my draft board, I take Tom Brady.  Maybe dumb considering I need to start 3 RBs and 3 WRs, but whatever. How can you not love Tom Brady this year? I'm seriously starting to think the Pats will go 19-0. 


At 17 I take DeMarco Murray.  All of the first 16 picks are solid.  These teams know what they're doing. 


At 24, I'm torn between Hakeem Nicks and Jamaal Charles. Thinking there is more depth at WR than RB this year, I take Charles, and vow to take WRs with 3 of the next 4 picks, even if it means forgoing a solid TE. 


At 37 I go Steve Smith. Not a great PPR guy, but oh well. At 44, I have to take Ahmad Bradshaw.  Too much value in the 4th round. Why does he keep falling to the 4th round? At 57, I take Demaryius Thomas. Awesome value there.  (You may have seen that I have Demaryius ranked one spot ahead of Steve Smith, so why did I take Smith 20 picks earlier? Because of ADP - average draft position. I figured Demaryius would fall well past where I had him ranked, but I knew Smith was going soon. Most drafters follow a pretty standard ranking). 


At 64, another value WR in Antonio Brown. This is shaping up as my best team yet.  It's nice to pick somewhere in the middle instead of on the end.  Still 22 rounds to go.  Yikes. 


At 77, a PPR pick in CJ Spiller. At 84, Aaron Hernandez, who I now own in all 3 leagues. At 97, Reggie Wayne. At 104, Titus Young. I keep getting the same guys over and over.  Same thing happened last year.  I think I picked Felix Jones in 30 leagues last year.  


At 117, Brandon Pettigrew - a great PPR tight end. 


At 124, feeling good about my starting 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 3 flexes, I begin the run on head coaches and take the Packers coach.  After that, I get a head start on the IDPs and take the first one - Jason Pierre-Paul. 


This starts a run of IDPs, and I zig and take Amendola at pick 164. Then, it's all IDPs for a while: I get Derrick Johnson, DeMarcus Ware, Justin Tuck, Justin Smith, Cortland Finnegan, and Tyvon Branch.  Clearly I dominated the IDP section of this draft. 


Since this league also features a large bench, I have 7 more rounds to load up on sleepers - so I go Ryan Williams, Isaiah Pead, Davonne Bess, Ronnie Hillman, Coby Fleener, and Taiwan Jones. In the 28th and 29th rounds, I go Jason Hanson and Vikings DST.  What a beast of a league.


Final roster: 


QB - 
Tom Brady, NE


RBs - 
DeMarco Murray, DAL
Jamaal Charles, KC
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
CJ Spiller, BUF
Ryan Williams, ARZ 
Isaiah Pead, STL
Ronnie Hillman, DEN
Taiwan Jones, OAK


WRs - 
Steve Smith, CAR
Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Antonio Brown, PIT
Reggie Wayne, IND
Titus Young, DET
Danny Amendola, STL
Davonne Bess, MIA

TEs -
Aaron Hernandez, NE
Brandon Pettigrew, DET
Coby Fleener, IND

K - Jason Hanson, DET

DST - Vikings

IDP -
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, NYG
Justin Tuck, DT, NYG
Justin Smith, DE, SF

DeMarcus Ware, LB, DAL
Derrick Johnson, LB, KC

Cortland Finnegan, CB, STL
Tyvon Branch, S, OAK

Head Coach - Packers

That's a wicked good team.  Undefeated?

League 4 - Morgan's Meerkats 

Another 10 team league.  2 RB, 2 WR and an unconventional 3 flex. Standard scoring.

Picking 5th.  The first 4 picks are worst case scenario - Rodgers, Rice, Foster, Brady.  My cheat sheet says to take Brees, but since this league doesn't matter to me, I'm going to mix things up and see what happens. I go with Maurice Jones Drew, hoping I can wait a while and get Murray or Sonic.

The non-Brees strategy backfires, as Brees goes next, followed quickly by Cam and Stafford, then Eli on the way back. In the first 16 picks, 6 quarterbacks go. Insane.  Do I want to reach for Romo here at 16, or take an RB like Forte or Murray (CJ's gone), or take my #2 receiver, Andre Johnson?  I go Andre.  Mostly on a hunch that either Murray or Forte will be there in the 3rd round.  For whatever reason, people don't see these guys as the studs they are.

Indeed, Murray falls to me at pick 25, after I considered taking him at 5.  Amazing.  Going directly in front of Murray was Adrian Peterson, who might not play until November, and Mike Wallace, who is holding out indefinitely.  Thanks for the treat stupid! (go to 2:03)

Since so many QBs went early, only one QB (Peyton) is taken between pick 25 and my next pick at 36. So I somehow end up with Romo at pick 36, after I almost took him at 16.  I just got my #5 QB as the 8th QB off the board. Nice.

The fifth round is officially going to be known as the Round of Idiots.  Before I take Ahmad Bradshaw at pick 45, Roy Helu, Darren Sproles, Willis McGahee and Antonio Gates go. Yikes.  I still can't figure out why Gates is the consensus 3rd tight end this year. As someone who's owned him the past two seasons, I can't say anything positive about him other than "he was awesome five years ago."

My next two picks have to be receivers, and I land decent bargains with Percy Harvin (59) and Eric Decker (65).  Would have taken Aaron Hernandez again but he went 58th.  After Gronk, Graham and Hernandez, there aren't any tight ends I'm crazy about.  I like Finley a little bit but would rather wait a few rounds and try to peg a sleeper.  

At this point, I have a QB I am comfortable with, and 3 RBs and 3 WRs.  Since I need 3 flex players, I decide it's better to land a safe, startable player instead of an all-or-nothing flier.  So I take DeAngelo Williams, pretty hesitantly.  Not my favorite pick, but he's probably safe for 5 fantasy points a week. Next pick I do basically the same thing with Mark Ingram.

At 96, in the 10th round, I finally grab a tight end, Jared Cook from the Titans.  If Jake Locker is good (big if), Cook could be awesome, especially if drunk-driving Kenny Britt gets suspended and Cook becomes the de facto #1 receiver.   At 105, I take a gamble on Giants' rookie RB David Wilson, who if nothing else is a solid handcuff for Bradshaw.

The next two picks are total sleeper receivers who might amount to nothing - Laurent Robinson and Michael Floyd.  Not much left to pick from at this point. I take the Jets D and Titans kicker to finish off draft #4.

Final roster:

QB -
Tony Romo, DAL

RBs -
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
DeMarco Murray, DAL
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
DeAngelo Williams, CAR
Mark Ingram, NO
David Wilson, NYG
Mike Tolbert, CAR

WRs -
Andre Johnson, HOU
Percy Harvin, MIN
Eric Decker, DEN
Laurent Robinson, JAC
Michael Floyd, ARZ

TE -
Jared Cook, TEN

K - Rob Bironas, TEN

DST - Jets

A pretty stacked team, though I'm overly reliant on the Cowboys, and weak at receiver.

What I've learned after four mock drafts:  It's almost impossible to have quality depth at both RB and WR, especially if you're picking 1st or last.  It really helps when 2 or 3 other owners are idiots. But if you're committed to taking a QB early, like most people seem to be, you probably will be weak at either RB or WR.  

Tight end rankings to come soon.  After that, a final ranking of RBs.  Then, perhaps an overall top 200 or something similar.
 ... 

Fantasy Football Rankings - QBs

I believe Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady should be the first two players off the board, even in those weird leagues where passing TDs are only worth 4 points. I also believe Brees should go in the top 5, maybe even third overall. Those are the three safest players in fantasy football; least likely to get hurt, most likely to dominate.  They have everything going in their favor: track record, supporting cast, elite talent, offensive system ... even Roger Goodell seems to be creating rules to benefit them.  So as much as you might want Arian Foster or Ray Rice, my recommendation is take a QB in the top 3, and then spends rounds 2-10 stockpiling on RBs and WRs.

So, what happens if you are picking 12th, or 10th, and those guys are all gone? Even in the most old-fashioned leagues, all 3 quarterbacks will be gone in the top 10. So who else can you trust?  And in what round?  Are there any late-round bargains, or should you beat the rush and take the best QB available in the 2nd or 3rd round?

Here are my fantasy QB rankings:

1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Brees
See above.

4. Eli Manning.
Love Cam and Stafford's upside, but I think Eli is the safest QB outside of the top three.  You can probably get him late 2nd or early 3rd round.

5. Tony Romo.
As Dallas evolves into a successful running team, Romo will become more efficient and probably more productive. He has always thrived in play-action, and now it'll work even better with a great RB. A potential bargain pick; everyone is shying away from Dallas because of the Dez Bryant drama.

6. Cam Newton.
Newly acquired Mike Tolbert will steal Cam's goal-line carries and prevent him from rushing for 14 scores again. But 4,000 passing yards and 700 rushing yards again is reasonable, and at least 5 or 6 rushing TDs. However, keep in mind that if you want him you're really going to have to reach; he's going in the 2nd round, sometimes as early as 15th overall.

7. Matt Stafford.
Three years ago: "No where to go but up!"
Two years ago:  "Stafford is unflappable!"
Last year:  "Can Stafford stay healthy?"

This year's overarching question:  "How will Stafford do without Calvin?"  

I really have no idea what to expect from Stafford during the 6 or more games that Megatron misses.  It will really suck, especially if the run game doesn't develop. I surely wouldn't want to rely on him for fantasy purposes during that time.  That's why I have him ranked 7th; without the Madden Curse he would be 4th.

8.  Phillip Rivers.
Losing Vincent Jackson will be tough, and Norv Turner vows to give Ryan Matthews a very heavy workload. But I still think PR will put up massive stats.  He always does.  Even during his bad year, he went for 4,600 yards and 27 TDs.  He won't throw 20 INTs again.  Plus, I think Eddie Royal can step into that Sproles-ish role as the safety-valve, slot-guy. He's a buy-low pick that you can rely on.  

9. Peyton Manning.
The ultimate in risk-reward.  He might not be fully recovered, and even if he is, he might be rusty. Plus he doesn't have any proven receivers, and he's playing home games outdoors for the first time ever.  Worth a gamble in the 4th, maybe 3rd round - just make sure you get a reasonable backup QB somewhere around the 7th or 8th round.    


10. Michael Vick. 
The injury to Jason Peters is going to be directly responsible for at least 1 injury to Vick this year.  Count on him to play between 7 and 10 games.  So in other words, if you take him, you need to take a backup QB shortly after.  But it might just be worth it. When the matchup is right, he'll rush for 150 yards and any passing stats he gets are gravy.  Plus he gets easy yardage on McCoy's screen passes.  


11. Jay Cutler. 
Cutler is probably the last guy I would ever draft, even if he were available in the last round. I just can't stand him.  But if you don't care about personal feelings, you might as well roll with him. Brandon Marshall is going to make Cutler relevant in fantasy world again. He's a buy-low bargain.


12. Matt Schaub.
Houston is clearly a run-first team, but Schaub will have plenty of chances in the red zone against their easy schedule.  Another buy-low QB; nobody wants to touch him after the season-ending injury, but it was only a foot injury, not a knee, arm or shoulder. 


13. Matt Ryan.
Going earlier than Vick, Cutler and Schaub, simply based on having a great duo of receivers. But those receivers can't do anything if Ryan can't get them the ball, and we've yet to see him throw 30 TDs or 4,200 yards. He really hasn't gotten better after four years in the league.  


14. Ben Roethlisberger.
Improved offensive line, injured running back, new offensive coordinator ... everything points to Pittsburgh becoming a pass-happy team.   Ben is a good bet to lead the NFL in sacks and INTs, but also rack up tons of yards on stupid hailmarys. 


*This is where it gets tough.  If you're still paying attention at this point, you're looking for a backup or a sleeper QB.  


If you have Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Eli, Romo or Rivers, I would recommend standing pat and using the extra bench spot on a flier WR or a handcuff RB. Sleeper QBs can be exciting, but they'll just sit on your bench every week. Unless you want to grab one for potential trade bait. 


If you have an injury-prone QB such as Cam, Peyton, Vick or Big Ben, I would draft a backup QB who is safe, reliable, and pretty mediocre. Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, maybe Andy Dalton. 


If you have Stafford, Cutler, Schaub, or Ryan, I would draft a backup who has a little more upside and potentially more downside.  RG3 is the obvious name because of his potential to run for 1,000 yards, but I'd also look at Luck, Bradford, Freeman, and if you're feeling really adventurous, Ponder or Locker.

And if you want to be "that guy," take Tim Tebow.

If you don't have one of the top 14 guys, your season is pretty much screwed. So I'd recommend getting an early start on the QB run.  Make someone else in your league rely on Vick, Schaub or Cutler;  you'll feel much better when you're not playing the QB matchup every week.

GO LIONS!

Fantasy Football Rankings - Wide Receivers

In my last post, I lamented that there are no totally reliable running backs this year.  But you may have noticed I didn't include any receivers in my top 10.  That's because, unfortunately, I am skeptical of all the receivers as well.  I'm just waaay too cynical after years of getting screwed by first round picks.  Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, Lawrence Maroney ... I hate you all.

After much researching, Youtubing, scribbling, and over-thinking, here are my 2012 wide receiver rankings:

1. Calvin Johnson.  I'm putting Megatron at #1 as a formality. He'll be the 1st receiver taken in every draft, and fairly so.  However, the Madden Curse is a proven reality.  So I won't be taking him.

2. Went back and forth here with Jennings and Fitzgerald ... and finally decided to rank Andre Johnson #2 instead. I think it's a buy-low year for Andre. The awesome Houston running game makes things pretty easy for him. And he doesn't share red-zone targets with anyone.

3. Greg Jennings.  Best receiver on the team with the best QB = safe production. I'm not buying into Jordy Nelson. Jennings is still the man in GB.

4. Larry Fitzgerald.  Put up 1,400 yards and 8 TDs with no quarterback last year. Should do about the same this year.

5. Hakeem Nicks.  Victor Cruz is more sexy, but Nicks still occupies the #1WR spot on the depth chart, and you can count on Eli to rack up yardage and points.

6. AJ Green.  Wouldn't be shocked to see him put up similar numbers to what Calvin did in his second year - 1,300 yards and 12 TDs. Only question mark is Dalton's consistency.

7. Brandon Marshall.  Jay Cutler hasn't had a real receiver since arriving in Chicago. Now he does.  He'll completely forego everyone else and Marshall might lead the NFL in targets.

8. Dez Bryant.  Massive disappointment for me last year in the 3rd round. I may have been a year too early. DeMarco Murray is going to demand a lot of attention and Dez should see lots of single coverage.

9. Roddy White.
10. Julio Jones. 
I'm down on both Falcons receivers; they cancel each other out too much. Julio is going to replace Roddy as the redzone guy, but Roddy still moves the chains and has Matt Ryan's trust.  I think Roddy goes for 1,200 yards, 90 catches, but only 5 or 6 scores ... while Julio puts up 12 TDs and only 800 yards.  Both good picks ... but they are both going too early. 

11. Victor Cruz.  Another guy who's going too early.  He was a fun surprise last year, but reality sets in and now people are ready for him.  Don't expect more 99 yard TDs either.

12. Miles Austin. People are forgetting about Austin after he missed 6 games last year and had only 500 yards. He appears to be a buy-low candidate, should score 10+ TDs.

13. Demaryius Thomas.  Went back and forth on which Bronco I want this year.  Demaryius reminds me too much of Calvin Johnson for me to resist. But Decker suits Peyton Manning's style better, so I like him a lot too. Both guys should produce assuming Peyton is Peyton.

14. Steve Smith.  Left for dead last year, and then totally exploded. Color me skeptical, but I'm willing to roll the dice.

15. Percy Harvin.  With AP out for an unknown amount of time, Percy is the Vikings' only offensive weapon outside of the TE position. He isn't big enough to beat the double team consistently, but by virtue of number of targets he'll make a suitable fantasy option.  Also a good bet to lead all WRs in rushing yardage.

16. Antonio Brown.  Notice you haven't seen Mike Wallace's name yet.  I'm waiting to see what becomes of his contract/ holdout.  He wants Larry Fitzgerald type money, and clearly doesn't deserve that much.  But Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose him. In the meantime, Brown is Pittsburgh's #1 receiver, and should be good for plenty of Roethlisberger's patented "3rd and 25 desperation-miracle-TDs."  Even if Wallace signs, I like Brown a lot as their #2 guy.  I'll bump Wallace up to 8th if and when he signs.  For now, he's in the low 20s.

17. Steve Johnson. I'm pretty unashamed of my love of the Bills this year.  I like Stevie on account of he's their only wide receiver worth anything.

18. Wes Welker.  A little squeamish on Welker this year ... the tight ends have taken over in Foxboro, and now Brandon Lloyd is there with his buddy, Josh McDaniels. Welker is still safe, but no longer a stud.  In PPR leagues, however, feel free to make him a top 5 receiver.

19. Marques Colston.  Classic example of drafting a guy simply based on what team he plays for. By himself, Colston doesn't impress me.  But being Drew Brees's top WR means plenty of chances. Graham is really the #1 option though.

20 Eric Decker.  Peyton Manning has shown an affinity for white receivers in the past. Decker could be the next Stokley/Collie who inexplicably puts up 10 TDs.

21. Brandon Lloyd. Can't decide whether to rank him #1 ahead of Calvin, or drop him out of the top 100. I have no clue what Bill Belichick is ever going to do with his offense. I guess common sense says he'll be better than Ochocinco was last year, but not as good as Moss was in 2009.  Fifth round seems about right.

22. Jeremy Maclin.
23. DeSean Jackson.
I don't like either Philly receiver very much, given Vick's likelihood to get injured, and McCoy's likelihood to lead the team in catches.  These guys are both feast or famine; you're either getting a huge 70-yard TD or you're getting nothing.  Also, Jackson is an off-the-field idiot.

24. Mike Wallace.  Wait and see if he signs.  A holdout is very likely.

25. Malcolm Floyd.  With Vincent Jackson gone and Gates getting old, somebody has to catch Phillip Rivers's deep ball. Floyd appears the top candidate, but I'm not sold that he keeps the #1 WR job over Robert Meachem and/or Vincent Brown.

26. Vincent Jackson.  Speaking of V-Jack, his move to the Bucs pummels his fantasy value, but skyrockets his salary, so at least he's happy. I wouldn't touch the Tampa offense until we see signs of life.

27. Jordy Nelson.  As I mentioned, I'm leaning towards Jordy's 15-TD campaign being a fluke.  I kind of think JerMichael Finley supplants him as the #2 target.  Still a good player to have, but he's going too early.

28. Kenny Britt.
29. Dwayne Bowe.
Nearly identical players - both about the same size, both picked near the end of the first round, both tremendously talented and tremendously stupid. Both have been arrested, suspended, and injured. Now, Bowe is holding out and Britt just got a DUI, his third arrest in 16 months.  I wouldn't touch either guy until you know they're going to play.  If Britt gets a 4-game suspension, you might be able to snag him in the 12th round or something. If Bowe holds out, same thing.  Sad wastes of potential.

30. Denarius Moore. My first official "sleeper" I guess. If Carson Palmer has proven anything over the last few years, besides the fact that he sucks, it's that he can put up monster stats in garbage time.  Denarius could be the benefactor of lots of meaningless 4th quarter bombs when Oakland is trailing by 20.

31. Torrey Smith.  While he'll take over the #1 WR job in Baltimore, I'm not sure he's ready for it.  Ray Rice is their offense, and they want to move to a tight-end heavy system.  Boldin is there too, and Jacoby Jones is a deep threat.  Also Tandon Doss. Not sure how it'll shake out.  But I don't trust Torrey Smith to consistently catch more than 4 or 5 balls a game.

32. Emmanuel Sanders.  If indeed Mike Wallace holds out, Sanders becomes the #2 receiver for Pittsburgh and becomes a bargain.

33. Michael Crabtree.
34. Santonio Holmes.
Two dudes who need to shut up and play like 1st round picks.

35. Reggie Wayne.  Will Andrew Luck be okay with throwing to Peyton's old guy?  Or will he try to re-invent himself throwing to Coby Fleener and T.Y. Hitlon?  Good question.

36. Santana Moss.  You can always count on Santana ranking somewhere in the 30s every year. He doesn't score much, but he might be the benefactor of those famous RG3 bubble screens. But don't get too excited; he's 33 and slowing down.  Washington brought in Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan.

37. Mike Williams, Tampa.  A dud last year, but now won't have to face double teams.  Josh Freeman likes him.  Maybe he'll bounce back somewhat.

38. Justin Blackmon.  Give him a shot in keeper leagues; maybe Jacksonville will get a new QB in 2013.

39. Greg Little.  Does the #1 WR on Cleveland really count as a #1 WR?

40. Titus Young.  Probably worth taking if you believe the Curse knocks Megatron out early in the year.

41. Darrius Heyward-Bey.  He'll have plenty of garbage yards as well in Oakland.

42. Lestar Jean.  Houston's never-ending quest to find a #2 receiver may finally be solved. This dude can play.

42. Robert Meachem.  Worth a shot. Rivers might take a liking to him.

43. Devery Henderson.
44. Lance Moore.
With Meachem gone, these guys get a little more valuable. Drew Brees always spreads the ball around.  Don't count on them every week, but they're nice guys to have on the bench and play when the matchup is right.

45. Jabar Gaffney. Looks like he'll be the #3 receiver for Tom Brady.  Which really doesn't mean a lot with Gronk and Hernandez.  But in case of an injury ... Gaffney becomes valuable.

46. Kendall Wright.  With Kenny Britt's troubles, Wright has a shot to be the #1 WR in Tennessee. Definitely a good pick in keeper leagues. He'll have some growing pains though.

47. Pierre Garcon.   Washington didn't give him $42 million to sit the bench.

48. Danny Amendola.
49. Davonne Bess.
Both desperation fantasy receivers, but highly valuable in PPR leagues.  Should catch 80+ passes for their lousy offenses.

50. Sidney Rice.  Pete Carroll can't decide who his starting QB is - Flynn, Tavaris, or maybe the 5th round rookie.  At the same time, he has no idea who his #1 receiver is ... Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin...?  Stay away. 

51. Andre Caldwell.  Might be Peyton's #3 in Denver.
52. Anquan Boldin.  Worth a gamble, though he appears to be finished.
53. Nate Burleson.  Calvin's injury is inevitable, right?
54. Mario Manningham.  Moving to San Fran probably hurts his stats, but maybe Alex Smith will like him?
55. Michael Floyd.  Opposite Larry Fitzgerald is a good place to be.  Obvious keeper pick.
56. Laurent Robinson.  Talent is there, but you don't want anything to do with Jacksonville.
57. James Jones.  The #3 receiver in GB gets a few random TDs now and then.
58. Eddie Royal.  Rivers wants to use him as a slot guy.
59. Jonathan Baldwin.  Lots of people like him as a sleeper. I'm not crazy about him. Matt Cassel stinks.
60. Randall Cobb. Might overtake James Jones in GB.

Other sleepers to consider ...

Brandon LaFell, Carolina.   #2 behind Steve Smith, who has gotten hurt plenty of times.
Chad Ochocinco, Miami.   Whatever.
Reuben Randle, Giants.   Eli's #3. Upside galore.
Stephen Hill, Jets.  Rookie from Georgia Tech makes a decent late round flier.
Brian Quick, Rams.  Another rookie with upside. But on a bad team.
Ryan Broyles, Lions.  Hey, why not?
Nick Toon, Saints.  Anyone on the Saints is worth a look.
T.Y. Hilton, Colts.  Luck's fellow rookie.


Hope you found this helpful, but not too helpful if you're in my league.  GO LIONS!!