The First Sixteen Picks

For some obnoxious reason, all of ESPN's articles that relate to the NFL Draft are considered "insider" information. I have to actually pay money to access them, and that's obviously unacceptable.

However, thanks to WalterFootball.com I found this site, which contains links to over 200 Mock Drafts. Needless to say, mocking the draft is one of the greatest obsessions in sports. It's more fun than the actual draft itself. This year I'm getting increasingly involved.

There are so many fascinating factors: Lucks's decision to stay at Stanford, the looming CBA, seven new head coaches, and the surplus of talent at some positions (DE, DT, QB) and complete void at others (RB, OG, S).

It all starts with the Carolina Panthers, who have been on the clock since late December. They lost their guy when Andrew Luck decided to become an architect, and now new coach Ron Rivera has a difficult decision to make. Of the last twelve #1 picks, at least five have been completely worthless. One was good but then went to prison. One has been consistently mediocre. Two have been phenomenal. The other three are Stafford (jury's out), Eli (good but not amazing), and Bradford (stud in the making).

For reference - the five worthless picks are: Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, David Carr, JaMarcus Russell, and Alex Smith. (Four quarterbacks.) The mediocre guy was Carson Palmer, and the phenomenal picks were Mario Williams and Jake Long. You probably know which guy went to prison.

One thing is for sure: Carolina won't be able to trade their way out of this pick. There is no clear franchise QB and no clear #1 pick, so they're stuck at the top, just like the Lions were in 2009. That year, we debated between Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, and Andre Smith, but ultimately settled on Stafford.

Carolina won't make the same mistake. They'll give Claussen another chance, knowing that if he fails completely they can fall back on Matt Moore, or a free agent to be signed later. A lot of mock drafts I've seen have Carolina taking a quarterback, but that simply won't be the case. They have far more pressing needs.

The Panthers need major help on the offensive line, especially at right guard, but there are no guard prospects even close to the being worthy of the #1 pick. They also desperately need a receiver, but that's not going to happen either despite A.J. Green being a Calvin-like talent. The pick is going to be defense.

Why? Well, first and foremost because Ron Rivera is a former defensive coordinator who learned the coaching ropes from Buddy Ryan and Lovie Smith. Secondly, because taking a receiver #1 overall without a quarterback is foolish. Even Matt Millen wouldn't be that stupid. And thirdly, because of Nick Fairley.

Fairley, the 6'5" 300 pound defensive tackle from Auburn, pretty much took over the #1 pick during the national "championship" game, in which he sort of dominated Oregon with 3 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. Fans saw the immediate impact that Ndamukong Suh had for Detroit, and think Fairely could have a similar impact.

If Carolina wants to take him, and I think they will, that's fine with me. Just know this: Fairely isn't half the player Suh is. I think they should pick defensive end DaQuan Bowers, but my guess is they will take Fairley.

And that would bring up the Denver Broncos, who will almost certainly take the remainder between Fairley and Bowers. They had the fewest sacks in the NFL last year, and although they'll get Elvis Dumervil back, they still need to address the front 7. New coach John Fox will almost certainly (call it 99.5%) switch the defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3, which means Dumervil either becomes a true OLB or moves to DE. More likely, they keep him at OLB and draft Bowers to play DE.

Denver could also look at A.J. Green, but with the development of Brandon Lloyd that's highly unlikely. The other possibility is a cornerback, as it appears Champ Bailey wants out, and the prospect of either Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara will be tempting. But Fox drafted Julius Peppers in his first year in Carolina, and Bowers is a similar player whom he won't be able to pass up.

So,
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson

unless Carolina takes Bowers first, in which case I don't know if Denver will take Fairley, or instead go with a CB. Probably Fairley.

The third pick belongs to Buffalo, who holds a great position in the draft. They have needs all over the place (DE, DT, WR among them) and should take the best player available, which in this scenario is A.J. Green.

Buffalo needs a left tackle, but won't take one with the #3 pick. A smart move would be to trade backwards and take a guy like Solder or Carimi, but that means they have to find someone interested in the #3 pick. If Fairley and Bowers are gone, that would mean someone interested in Green or Peterson, or maybe a team wants to jump ahead of Arizona at #5 and pick a QB, but that will depend on whether Arizona needs a QB, or if they get one in free agency. It wouldn't shock me at all if Buffalo trades backwards to someone who wants Green, believing him to be the next Calvin or Fitzgerald. Such a team might be St. Louis (#14) or Jacksonville (#16) or even San Diego (#18), who will probably lose Vincent Jackson. A.J. Green is considered the best overall prospect in this draft, and Buffalo would be wise to trade backwards and see if they can get a 1st, 2nd and a 4th. They have too many needs to pass up an offer like that.

But it's hard to 'mock' any trades, so I'll just tenatively say that Buffalo takes A.J. Green, and hopes to get their QB next year.

Cincinnati picks next, and has already made two major mistakes by retaining Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer. I'm not normally a huge advocate of firing coaches, but Lewis really deserved it. His team didn't even try in more than half of their games. Palmer was hideous in 13 of the 16 games. They are doomed from the start.

Most mock drafts have Cincinnati taking A.J. Green, assuming T.Ocho will be gone, and Buffalo will take a defensive player. I think that if Buffalo doesn't take Green it's because they traded backwards so someone else could take Green. A player that good probably won't slip to #4.

In either event, Cincinnati shouldn't pick Green. They need to fix their pass rush, which had the second-fewest sacks next to Denver. To me, the smartest pick would be UNC's stud defensive end Robert Quinn, who I think is the most underrated prospect in this draft. He's being overlooked because of Bowers.

Peterson and Amukamara are not options for Cincinnati, because they're stacked at cornerback. But trading down might work, if they can find a team willing to give them a 1st and 2nd pick for this pick and a 3rd. Detroit might be such a team. Or Dallas, or Houston. With teams #7, #9, #11, and #13 all needing help in the secondary, trades might happen in the #4 to #6 range. A lot will depend on the Combine, and if Peterson or Amukamara emerges as a must-have stud.

I'll stick with the Robert Quinn pick for Cincy. So, my top four looks like this:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

And that brings up Arizona, quite possibly the team with the most flaws from top to bottom. They have Larry Fitzgerald, and that's about it. Left guard Alan Faneca is expected to retire, and the offensive line was a sieve in the first place. They have no pass rush, no secondary, and no running game, not to mention to quarterback. If there's one certainty, it's that they won't pick A.J. Green if he freakishly falls past Cincinnati.

Taking a quarterback is one option, but as I've said before I think Arizona wins the Donovan McNabb Sweepstakes, which is ironic because McNabb isn't actually any good. If not McNabb, they might get Vince Young, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, or even an old guy like Billy Volek or Jake Delhomme. It seems like Todd Haley's style to stick with his guys and not draft a QB. Especially with two young QBs - Hall and Skelton - who both have potential. Maybe not talent, but at least potential.

The reason they probably won't take a quarterback is that there isn't a clear choice. Most mock drafts have Missouri's Blaine Gabbert going first among QBs, but that baffles me. He's just the next in the line of big-armed, small-brained dolts. He's only the top ranked QB because Luck stayed in school, Mallet is terribly unintelligent, and Locker had a lot of interceptions against a tough schedule. I wouldn't pick Gabbert at all; do you really want to pin your franchise's future to a guy who's most famous highlight is getting destroyed by Ndamukong Suh?

Instead, Arizona should bolster their front 7 with Marcell Dareus, the DT/DE hybrid from Alabama. The Cardinals were 30th against the run this year, and need someone next to Darnell Dockett. Dareus would be a great pick. Now, if only they could get him to play left tackle as well, and running back, and linebacker...

Cleveland, at pick #6, doesn't have any pressing needs, but has moderate needs in the front 7 and at right tackle. Their biggest need is a receiver, but unless A.J. Green magically falls to them, they won't reach for Julio Jones. (Maybe they would trade with Buffalo to take Green ahead of the Bengals?) They also need a cornerback to replace Eric Wright, and an inside linebacker for their 3-4 defense.
With Dareus and Quinn gone, I expect Cleveland to take whichever cornerback they like between Peterson and Amukamara. My guess would be Amukamara, because one of Peterson's biggest strengths is kick-returning, and the Browns already have Josh Cribbs. So the top 6 looks like this:

1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

Picking seventh is the 49ers, and that's where a lot of people expect the first quarterback to be taken. Again, I keep repeating this, but it will all depend on where McNabb and Vince Young and Kolb end up. The new rumor is that Carson Palmer wants a trade. I can't imagaine him going anywhere except Seattle (Pete Carroll, USC, reunited with Reggie Bush and Mike Williams, that's too easy).

But San Fran makes the most sense to draft a quarterback because
A) They desperately need one. Alex Smith and Troy Smith are both worthless, and are both likely leaving,
B) New coach Jim Harbaugh wants to start rebuilding with 'his own guy,' not some been-around-the-block scrub like McNabb.

If this were a different year, I'd say quarterback makes loads of sense for the 49ers. But this draft class is weird. I just don't see a franchise QB. Blaine Gabbert is the top prospect (according to Mel Kiper and most others) and I wouldn't take him with a guy like Patrick Peterson still on the board.

This pick will essentially determine Harbaugh's fate. He won't take Gabbert simply because the scouts told him too. He's too smart. Taking a franchise quarterback is no menial task. Gabbert has the size and arm strength, but does he have the work ethic and leadership skills? As Jay Cutler just proved, you need both to be successful.

I don't like Gabbert for this pick, despite what most folks say. I'm sort of leaning towards Jake Locker if the Niners do select a quarterback, but I'll wait and see how Locker plays in the Senior Bowl before I say that for sure. For now I'll pencil in Patrick Peterson, the best player left on the board, who would fill an immediate need for San Francisco and shore up a shaky secondary.

Trading the #7 pick is always an option too, since the team at #8 - Tennessee - might be looking for a quarterback, and some Gabbert-loving coach might want to jump up. If San Fran isn't enamored with Gabbert but does prefer Locker, they might be willing to trade backwards, to say pick 10 or 12, and swap with the Redskins or Vikings.

Tennessee, like Arizona and San Fran, will be in the market for either McNabb or Kolb. Obviously they're done with Vince Young, and Kerry Collins is 38 years old. If Jeff Fisher wants to stay employed, he needs to find a quarterback. They seem like a potential home for Blaine Gabbert, as they've shown a weakness for dummies in the past. They've got dire needs defensively, especially at DE and MLB, but my hunch is they'll begin the rebuilding process officially and take Blaine Gabbert, thus screwing Chris Johnson's fantasy owners and making Arian Foster the unanimous #1 overall pick next August (unless you're smart and you take Jamaal Charles instead ... more on that in 6 months or so).

So let's add

1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri


And on to Dallas and the #9 pick. My guess is that the top two players on Dallas's draft board are Peterson and Amukamara, with Bowers and Fairley shortly behind. They NEED to fix that anemic secondary and get rid of Mike Jenkins ASAP. (If you don't believe me, watch this.) They'll probably try to trade up, but no guarantee that'll happen. In this situation, they'll be stuck deciding between a cornerback and a defensive lineman. Better prospects are available at DE and DT, but CB is a greater need. They also need 2 safeties and at least 2 offensive lineman, but they'll look at those positions in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

For this pick, my guess is Jerry Jones drafts the best player available, rather than reaching for a CB and taking a guy like Brandon Harris or Aaron Williams. Those guys will be available in the 2nd round. If not, guys just like them will. Unless some CB jumps out at the Combine with an obscene 40 time, I think they'll do the smart thing and shore up their defensive line.

In the 3-4, they are set with Ratliff at the NT and Stephen Bowen at LE. DeMarcus Ware is obviously their pass rushing specialist. What they need is a right end in the 3-4 who can stop the run. Typically 3-4 DEs are just smaller, faster 4-3 DTs. A perfect fit might be California's Cameron Jordan, a 6'4" 285 pound senior with a great all-around game, especially for a 3-4 defense. What he lacks in pass rush he makes up for with great tackling and strength that commands a double team. Because of Jordan's propensity to play DE in a 3-4, and with the number of teams switching to a 3-4, it's pretty commonly expected that he'll go in the top 15. I've got Dallas taking him here at #9.

Speaking of teams switching to the 3-4, here are two quick thoughts:

A) Even more defensive coordinators will think about making the switch after a Packers-Steelers Super Bowl, watching the dominance of Clay Matthews and James Harrison,
B) The Lions will not make such a move anytime soon, because Suh is the prototypically perfect DT for a 4-3 scheme, and they'll cater to him in every possible way.

After Dallas, Mike Shanahan is on the clock with Detroit just 3 picks away. Of course in real life there will be at least two or three trades by this point, and the whole draft will be upside-down, and some guy I've never heard of will be taken in the top 5. But let's just assume Washington is on the clock.

Most mockers have them taking a quarterback at #10. Gabbert makes sense for the system, Locker makes sense because Shanahan values intangibles, and Newton makes sense because Daniel Snyder is an unpredictable moron who loves the spotlight and Newton will be the Tebow of 2011.

But my gut feeling is that Mike Shanahan is just a little bit crazy and egomaniacal, and he thinks he is awesome enough to win with Rex Grossman and John Beck. As I've said, I think they'll win 3 or less games and take Andrew Luck in 2012 with the #1 pick. I'm not backing down from that prediction until Shanahan does at least one sensible thing. It will be hugely important to see what kind of value they can get for McNabb and Haynesworth. Both will be gone, and if they don't provide any return on investment it will be a crushing blow to Washington's future.

As bad as their quarterback situation is, the defense in Washington ranked much worse than the offense. (31st vs. 18th). They couldn't stop anybody in any way, and that was despite having legitimate studs in Orakpo, Fletcher and Landry plus pretty good cover corners in Rogers and Hall. They desperately need a free safety and could use 2 new inside linebackers in the 3-4, but outside linebacker is their biggest concern on defense, as Andre Carter completely failed to switch from a 4-3 DE to a 3-4 OLB. One of Shanahan's many unnoticed failures.

Of course, they also need to figure out the QB, RB, WR positions, plus at least 3 offensive linemen. But most likely they'll take an OLB with this pick, and I'm afraid they'll probably take Von Miller from Texas A&M, although we might get lucky if they select Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue instead.

I've always suspected Shanahan of being a little bit of a racist, so hopefully they'll take Kerrigan instead of Miller. As a Lions' fan, I'd much rather have Miller. But they're close. Kiper's Big Board has Miller at #9 and Kerrigan at #10. Let's hope Washington takes the white guy.

This brings up the Houston Texans at pick 11, who unfortunately have nearly the same needs as Detroit - secondary and outside linebacker. If Washington doesn't take Miller, Houston might. It will be tougher than I initially thought for him to fall to Detroit. I hope Lions' management loves him as much as I do so they'll trade up a few spots and grab him. I really think he has James Harrison potential.

But anyhow, our best chance of getting him would be if Houston elects to fix their defensive line, rather than the pass rush. A pressing need for them is nosetackle, but no prospect really stands out at the #11 pick. (Houston will be switching to a 3-4 as Wade Phillips takes over as defensive coordinator). They might wait til later rounds, or they might reach for Stephen Paea or Jared Crick, but neither is big enough to play a pure NT position. Maybe they'll move Amobi Okoye to NT. No idea. But I know that you can't run a successful 3-4 defense without a solid nosetackle.

It's probably wishful thinking. The smart choice for Houston is to take Von Miller and employ him as a pass-rushing OLB in the 3-4. Now the only question is whether to leave Mario Williams at DE, thus limiting his effectiveness. I really don't think Phillips will prove to be a good hire, simply because of the mismatch of Mario in the 3-4. Just like Peppers didn't want to play a 3-4. Freakishly athletic DEs belong in the 4-3 defense.

Bah. I'll give Miller to the Texans.

Next up, the Minnesota Vikings. I'll keep this one simple. I think they'll take Jake Locker. New coach Leslie Frazier basically revealed his plans to take a franchise quarterback a month ago, and Locker will be the best QB available by a mile, even if Gabbert is on the board. With all the talent in Minnesota - especially Adrian Peterson - they need a semi-competent quarterback who can jump right into a pro-style offense. Locker won't be asked to do too much, and should be considered an early favorite for offensive ROY. Assuming of course that he ends up in Minnesota.

And before Detroit takes the clock, let's recap the first 12 picks:

1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
9. Dallas - Cameron Jordan, DE, California
10. Washington - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
11. Houston - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
12. Minnesota - Jake Locker, QB, Washington

You may notice that's 9 defensive players, 1 receiver, and 2 quarterbacks. No offensive linemen, no running backs, no safeties. Seems unrealistic, considering last year's top 15 featured two safeties, three offensive linemen, and two running backs. But this year it's a different breed of talent. There are simply no Russell Okungs or Eric Berrys in this draft class. I feel pretty safe putting 5 pass rushers in the top 12.

This is highly unfortunate, as Detroit's two biggest areas of need are outside linebacker and cornerback. Offensive line is a close third, followed by safety, and then everything else is just a luxury.

As I've mentioned before, Detroit's new management really likes to address their needs via free agency, so they are able to select the best player available in the draft. Suh, Best, Pettigrew, and Delmas are all examples of this. We obviously needed a CB more than an RB last year, but by acquiring Chris Houston and Nathan Vasher we thought we had the position somewhat covered.

I don't hate their strategy, because obviously you need great players to build a great team. Suh and Calvin are great. Delmas and Pettigrew are solid. Best is good, and Levy is decent.

But the problem comes when the needs you meet in free agency are guys like Chris Houston and Nathan Vasher. In other words, poop on a platter. VandenBosch and Burleson were good pickups, but it'll be hard to replicate that level of talent again this offseason. Nnamdi Asomugha is the pipe dream, but 30 other teams want him too. As much as Lewand and Mayhew probably want to spend the #13 pick on a total stud like DE Aldon Smith or WR Julio Jones, it would be smarter for them to focus on a position of need - in other words, a CB or OLB.

Our defensive line isn't perfect, and taking a DE wouldn't shock me. VandenBosch is getting old. But I like Avril and McBride a decent amount, and would be much happier with an OLB. Like I've said for a couple weeks, Von Miller is sort of my dream at this pick. Well, the ultimate dream would be Peterson or Amukamara, but that's going to require trading up, and Detroit might not be aggressive or smart enough to pull that off. Chances of either CB falling to pick 13 are less than 5%.

So let's look at some possible options for Detroit, assuming my top 12 goes as predicted:

Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA - At 6'4" and 250, Ayers has the size to play strong in run support, but pass coverage is his greatest strength. He's an average pass rusher, but his athleticism and speed set him apart. He can run all over the field, and is compared to a Keith Rivers or Derrick Johnson.

Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri - Recovering from a broken fibula, Smith played only nine games in 2010 but was still voted All Big 12. He's bigger than Ayers (6'5, 260) and officially listed as a DE, but could probably play OLB in a 4-3. He's primarily a pass rusher, and also strong against the run. Coverage would be his weakness. If drafted by Detroit, he would replace Julian Peterson as the blitzing linebacker.

Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia - Played rush linebacker in the 3-4 at Georgia, and was second in the SEC in tackles for loss (behind only Fairely). Could he be taught to play DE or OLB in the 4-3? Maybe, but it's always a risky transition. His talent is definitely there, but most likely a 3-4 defense will want him more.

Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa - A prototypical 4-3 defensive end, which isn't a huge need for Detroit. But we love Big Ten players, and Clayborn is a 285 pound beast with speed. He could play 20-30 snaps a game in place of VandenBosch.

J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin - Similar to Clayborn, but bigger and slower. Almost a clone of VandeBosch physically, but obviously not the same player.

Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State - Elbow surgery might knock him out of the top 20, but he's another Big Ten defensive end with a great mix of strength and speed.

Brandon Harris, CB, Miami - Considered the #3 corner on the board, he's much smaller than Peterson or Amukamara, but faster. Great in man-to-man, but struggles in zone. A good tackler, but not great. If Detroit drafts him, he'll be immediately relied upon as a #1 CB, and that could spell trouble. He'll give up 6 inches to beasts like Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson next year. But no other CB makes sense in the first round. They could wait until the second round and there's a whole slew of choices.

So those are the primary defensive options. OLBs, DEs, and maybe a CB. Levy owns the MLB spot, and Suh and Williams should occupy the DTs spots. The only possibility would be if Marcell Dareus or Cameron Jordan falls to #13, and Detroit considers them at DT and moves Corey Williams to the bench. I wouldn't be opposed to that.

But of the above guys, I'd say Akers and Smith are the most likely, with Harris being the sleeper. I'm still holding out hope for Von Miller. But of course, these are all just defensive options. There's still the offensive line.

We know Detroit is set at QB, RB, WR and TE. They might draft a power running back or a third receiver in later rounds, but not on day one. But offensive line is an option, particularly if the players who are high on their draft board are all gone. Schwartz is a notoriously secretive coach, so we'll have no idea whether he's crushing on Miller, Akers, or maybe even Watt or Clayborn. He'll probably try to drop some fake hints. We won't know until draft day; all we can do is speculate and hope he doesn't fall in love with some fluky tape and draft a dud. This pick is vital to the rebuilding process. Super Bowl teams simply don't mess up first round picks.

If none of the DE or OLB options that Schwartz loves are available, offensive line becomes an option. But where? Left tackle? Right tackle? Who could we realistically move?

If you've followed Schwartz's press conferences, you know that he's morbidly obsessed with Jeff Backus, and considers him a Pro Bowler. Hopefully it's all just posturing and pleasantries. If he really feels the way about Backus that he says he does, there's no hope. Backus is mediocore, sometimes terrible, and getting older and slower. He has some good plays, even great plays, but he lacks consistency, and consistency is everything on the offensive line.

Still, Backus is better than Cherilus, and maybe better than Raiola at this point. The guards - Sims and Peterman - are both good enough. Neither should be replaced. Sims excels in pass protection, while Peterman is one of the best pulling guards in the running game. They complement each other well. Along with Raiola, the interior 3 of our line should remain intact.

But I expect the tackle positions to be changed this year, especially in light of Stafford's fragility. If no defensive players tickle Schwartz's fancy with the #13 pick, an OT will be taken, and could start on either the right or left side.

Weirdly, there are six OTs who are considered fringe 1st rounders:

Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin - 6'7", 315, very quick feet, amazing size, but doesn't have the best technique. Ends up on the ground often on running plays. But overall, might have the highest ceiling. He replaced Joe Thomas for the Badgers and consequently gets compared to him regularly.

Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State - 6'6", 312, dominated Michigan in the bowl game, better run blocker than Carimi, but not as strong in pass protection.

Tyron Smith, USC - 6'5", 285, probably better suited as a right tackle until he puts on 20-30 pounds, but extremely quick and a great run blocker.

Nate Solder, Colorado - 6'8", 314, the fastest 40 time in the bunch, first-team All American, superb in pass protection, quick feet but hand technique needs improvement.

Anthony Costanzo, Boston College - 6'7", 305, phenomenal speed (a former tight end), but not as strong as the others in this bunch. A great run blocker and amazing in the screen passing game.

DeMarcus Love, Arkansas - 6'5", 318, first-team All SEC, possibly more of a guard in the NFL because of his size and strength but lack of speed. Can be beaten around the corner, but is never overpowered.

Of these, I can only imagine Detroit selecting either Solder or Carimi in the first round. If any of them are available with pick #44, that will be a great option, but I expect a run on offensive linemen from picks 20-30 with Indy, Philly and Chicago.

However, I'm fairly convinced that Detroit's obsession with taking local players in the second round will lead them to take Michigan State's Greg Jones with that pick. Let's hope not. No offense to Jones, he's great, but I'm sick of that crap. How did Curt Aines work out? Or Stanton? Heck, Delmas could have easily been Pat Chung or Jairus Byrd, both superior safeties. Stop picking players from within the state!! It's so lame.

So anyhow, in this current mock draft, I'll give the Lions Akeem Ayers from UCLA, with Carimi & Solder closely behind, and DE Aldon Smith in the mix. But I'm still really hoping they'll get either Von Miller or Amukamara.

Next pick belongs to St. Louis, but I don't really care anymore. Plus, this pick is easy. Unless the Rams trade up to take A.J. Green, they'll spend this pick on wide receiver Julio Jones from Alabama. Sam Bradford needs a #1 option, and despite getting Mark Clayton back from injury, I don't think that's the answer. I know Spagnuolo is a defensive-minded coach, but they won't leave their franchise QB without an elite weapon. Jones could be a Brandon Marshall-like player with his amazing run-after-catch ability and superior route running. I highly doubt the Rams will let him sneak past.

Then there's Miami. Tony Sparano narrowly escapred firing when Jim Harbaugh turned down Miami's lucrative offer, and now owner Stephen Ross will look to make a splash elsewhere. That's why a lot of mockers think they'll take Heismann winner Cam Newton. But with Bill Parcells still employed as an "advisor," I can't imagine them making such a stupid move. Instead I think they're a leading candidate to acquire either Kolb or Orton. They aren't dumb enough to want McNabb or Young. And let's not completely give up on Chad Henne yet, shall we?

Miami actually needs a RB more than a QB, as both Ricky and Ronnie should be gone this offseason. Mark Ingram is still on the board, and they'll consider him. They'll also look at the surplus of defensive talent, including players like Aldon Smith and J.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. I'll give the pick to the best player left, in my opinion, and that's Aldon Smith.

Next, at pick #16, is the Jaguars. Last year they signed Aaron Kampman in an effort to slow down Peyton Manning. Their focus has always been trying to stop Peyton. This year, it continues. They'll take the best pass rusher available, as Kampman tore his ACL yet again and plenty of good 3-4 OLBs remain on the board. The best fit is Justin Houston from Georgia.

Here's a recap of the top 16:

1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
9. Dallas - Cameron Jordan, DE, California
10. Washington - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
11. Houston - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
12. Minnesota - Jake Locker, QB, Washington
13. DETROIT - AKEEM AYERS, OLB, UCLA
14. St. Louis - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
15. Miami - Aldon Smith, DE, California
16. Jacksonville - Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia

Much more to come later. Let's just say that the next pick, New England (via Oakland) at #17, will almost certainly be traded. Bill Belichick trades draft picks like a conquistador trades smallpox-infested blankets. The only question is whether he'll trade backwards, as he usually does, or package some picks and move way up. This year the Pats have six picks in the first three rounds, so he could offer say the 17th, 33rd and 74th pick to move up to #2 and take Bowers. Or something to that effect. But for now ... my first sixteen picks are mocked, and I hope you enjoyed this process as much as I did.