I don't know ...

I'm thinking about retiring from this whole thing - blogging, making picks, fantasy football, the whole deal.  There is almost no enjoyment so far this season.  My fantasy teams are an abomination -- I went 2-2 in my 4 leagues this week, but left hundreds of points on the benches and played pretty much the worst possible team in every instance, and my "play the matchup" philosophy with defenses and kickers was a complete disaster.

Favorites were just 7-9 straight up this week, including losses by the Saints (favored by 9), 49ers (7.5), Redskins, Steelers and Eagles (4 each), the Chargers and Packers (3 each), and of course the Lions, who set a new mark for futility in a single-game. (More on that later).  

The Titans scored on a trick-play punt return.  Fine.  Then they scored on a kickoff return.  Ok.  Then, we made Jared Cook look like Calvin's twin, and then Nate Washington turned into a young Randy Moss, and then good old Brandon Pettigrew continued his ongoing impersonation of a 90 year old man in an NFL player's body, and a Titans defender ripped the ball out of his hands like I would if I were playing against a bunch of 8 year-olds, and ran back for a score.  The Lions became the only team in NFL HISTORY to allow 5 scores of at least 60 yards in a single game.  WOW.  Absolutely incredible.

Then, with the game basically over, I put on Bob the Builder, and while Scrambler was coping with his fear of the scary car wash, ESPN told me that the Lions scored a TD, recovered an onside kick, and completed a hailmary to Titus Young of all people.  All with Shaun Hill at quarterback, of course.

What the heck.

So I turned the game back on, Jack cried, and the Lions played the stupidest, sloppiest, ugliest overtime I've ever seen.  Well, actually, they looked pretty sharp, except on the plays that mattered.  I've never seen a defense celebrate so much on an incomplete pass on 1st and 10, and then utterly disappear on 3rd and 10.  Our third-down pass defense is way beyond horrible.

Last week, I wrote about the Lions' dismal, patchwork secondary, fostered by years of neglect, and how it will keep the team from being truly competitive this year.  A few days after that, Anwar Richardson (the Lions' idiotic beat writer who has completely failed to fill the large shoes of Tom Kowalski) wrote on Mlive that the Lions have one of the league's best secondaries.  ...   This was a stunning piece to read.  I was in total shock.  It would be like writing "Since Obama is white, he won't get any votes from black people, so the election will be really close."     It was the exact opposite of reality.  I still can't figure out what possessed him to write that drivel or how it was published on Mlive without him being fired immediately and sent back to Florida.  From here forward, I refuse to read anything that Anwar writes.

As for the Lions offensive possession in overtime ... it was great.  I don't know what else to say.  Leshoure looked good, all game actually, and Calvin looked amazing, and Shaun Hill can move the chains as always.  I wanted them to go for it on 4th, because a field goal gives the Titans the ball first in a sudden death game, where all they needed was a field goal, and you know they would have moved the ball 40 yards and got the field goal.  Plus, we literally needed 3 inches for a first down.  It was the right decision.  But the play call was iffy.  It should have either been Leshoure, or a play-action pass. Heck, even the QB sneak would have worked, if the snap had been there.  I don't have a clue what happened with Raiola ... but it was a painful, unimaginable way to lose a game.  If Hill gets the snap clean, he gains the 3 inches, and we have 1st down, and we probably get a TD, and we're 2-1, and we end up in the playoffs ... so everybody shut up.  The Lions will be fine.   They're really good.  At the same time, the Lions are abominable and atrocious.  I really don't know what the Lions are, other than schizophrenic.  

So anyway ... I'm down to 19-27-2 after a 5-10-1 week .... and 23-25 straight up after going 5-11.   Granted, I was screwed (just like everyone else) by the replacement refs, who probably cost me at least 3 games, and by Blaine Gabbert's 80 yard TD with 40 seconds left, and by the Lions' inexplicable performance.  Turns out I was pretty close with them going up 14-0 early, except they settled for field goals due to some lousy play calling and poor execution from Mr. Stafford.

By the way, Calvin had 1 reception at halftime if I remember correctly ... and finishes the game with 10 catches, 164 yards, and now leads the NFL in receiving yards.  Are we watching the chains of the Madden Curse shatter in front of our eyes?  Or are the Lions one devastating injury away from going 3-13?  If Calvin doesn't play all 16 games, we truly have no chance at even being .500.

Fortunately, we're getting some help in the NFC.  The Packers are 1-2 (thanks, refs), the Bears are 2-1 but they suck (Cutler - 6 INTs, 11 sacks, 1 terrible attitude), and the Saints (a wildcard threat) are 0-3.  There are some surprising NFC teams -- Atlanta is probably winning at least 12, Arizona will use this 3-0 start to be frisky in the playoff picture, and the entire NFC East will win between 7 and 10 ... but Detroit is still in decent shape.  We need to win next Sunday, obviously, and then we need to win some tough road games after the bye.  Losing to Tennessee doesn't obliterate our playoff hopes, but it really, really hurts.  Now the Lions basically need to win 3 of 4 from the Packers and Bears and hope for the NFC North title.

Here are the week 4 picks ... I will wait until Sunday morning and then take the exact opposite of all these picks.

Browns (0-3) @ Ravens (2-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 14
Actual Line: BAL by 14 

Hey!  I nailed a line exactly.  I don't know if I've done that yet this year.  Awesome.  (I swear that was legit, you'll have to take my word for it.)

I'll take the Ravens in a blowout.  Flacco looks pretty dialed in and Cleveland looks amess.

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (3-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 9.5
Actual Line: ATL by 9 

I'm going to say Backdoor Cam keeps it close.  Falcons by 4.

Vikings (2-1) @ Lions (1-2)
Predicted Line: DET by ?? (Stafford)
Actual Line: DET by ??

Let's say if Stafford plays the line is 6, and if Hill plays it's 3.  That seems fair.

I'll take Detroit either way.  We need this one and the home crowd will come up big.

Patriots (1-2) @ Bills (2-1) 
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4 

Spiller and Fred Jackson are questionable ... it'll probably be Tashard Choice running for Buffalo.  And it sure doesn't seem like Tom Brady will lose 3 games in a row.  Guess I'll go with conventional wisdom and take the Pats +4.

Chargers (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 1

Homedogs were unstoppable last week and the Chiefs may have some momentum.  Plus, Norv Turner in September is something like 3-40.  ... I'll take the Chiefs by a field goal.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Rams (1-2)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 3

I'll take another homedog.  Seattle has some bad karma after that MNF "win" against Green Bay.  Rams by 6 in OT.

By the way, I don't have much to say about the replacement refs.  I know it's the biggest topic of the NFL season so far, but I'm not that interested in it, to be honest.  First off, I don't want to hear about the refs striking, or any of the business side of football.  We had enough of that during the lockout, and it's just annoying.  Plus we just had an NBA lockout, and now an NFL lockout ... the whole lockout/strike thing is just annoying and I prefer to ignore it.

Secondly, the replacement refs haven't been overly terrible during games I've watched, with the exception of a few plays.  Sure, they don't always know what they're doing, but did the real refs get everything right?  I contend that no play this season, including the infamous Golden Tate catch, was as poorly officiated as Calvin Johnson's "complete the process' bullcrap call.

49ers (2-1) @ Jets (2-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 5.5
Actual Line: SF by 4.5

Losing Darrelle Revis, the 2nd best player in the NFL according to me, will be detrimental for the Jets and obliterates their playoff chances.  However, Rex Ryan's brashness and confidence makes them a solid contender for "Ewing Theory" status - when a star player is lost, the team is written off, and then the team responds by playing better than anybody expected.  I have my doubts because Revis is so ridiculously dominant and able to shut down any receiver in man-to-man, but the new tandem of corners (Cromartie and former 1st round pick Kyle Wilson from Boise State) are still pretty good.  The safeties, on the other hand, are lousy, and now the Jets will be forced to play a lot more zone coverage.

I did get a good laugh out of this headline on 'The Onion'  -- "Rex Ryan Announces Darrelle Revis Has Best Torn ACL in NFL." 

I'll take the Niners by 13.

Titans (1-2) @ Texans (3-0)
Predicted Line: HOU by 13
Actual Line: HOU by 12

With the stupidity of the NFL so far, the Titans will probably win straight up. Might as well take the points. I'll say Texans by 6.

Raiders (1-2) @ Broncos (1-2)
Predicted Line: DEN by 5.5
Actual Line: DEN by 6.5

By all normal logic, the Broncos will win big.  They went out in the offseason and got Peyton Manning, and there's no way they should fall to 1-3.  Meanwhile, the Raiders are the worst team in the NFL, according to me back in May.  They are abysmal all over the place.  So naturally, the Raiders will win straight up, probably in a blowout.  Just to be safe, I'll take the points, but Denver by 3.  Taking the idiotic upset is almost a safer proposition than taking solid logic this year.

Dolphins (1-2) @ Cardinals (3-0)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 6.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 6 

Still no love from Vegas for the undefeated Cardinals, even after they've taken down the 2-1 Seahawks, the almighty Patriots, and the "dynasty" Eagles.  Not surprising I guess.  The question is, do I really feel good covering 6 points with Kevin Kolb and the nonexistent running game?  I mean, Miami has been good on defense all year.  This will probably be low scoring.  I'll take the Cards by 3.  No, scratch that.  I'll take Miami straight up, 17-16.

Bengals (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 3

I hate Blaine Gabbert, but I'll take the homedog and the points.  Jacksonville by 3.

Saints (0-3) @ Packers (1-2)
Predicted Line: GB by 8.5
Actual Line: GB by 8

I'm still trying to fathom how these teams are a combined 1-5.  This has to be a must-win for both teams.  I have no clue who will win, but the over/under point spread is 53.5, and I would put a billion dollars on the over.  Both teams might score 50 points apiece.  I'll take the points, and say Packers win 49-45.

Redskins (1-2) @ Bucs (1-2)
Predicted Line: TB by 1.5
Actual Line: TB by 3 

After taking the Redskins twice in a row and getting burned by the dumbass that is Mike Shanahan, I am jumping ship on RG3.  He's great, but his coach is too retarded for them to win games.  Plus they just lost their 2 starting pass rushers and looked pretty miserable against Cincy as a result.  I don't like Tampa at all, but I'll give them this one, because I'm sick of taking Washington.  27-21, Bucs.

Giants (2-1) @ Eagles (2-1)
Predicted Line: PHI by 1
Actual Line: PHI by 1 

Again, I have no clue.  I'm not even going to waste my time thinking about what might happen.  The most likely scenario is: something stupid happens that makes no sense.  So I'll take the Giants by 4ish.

Bears (2-1) @ Cowboys (2-1)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3.5

Most of the Primetime games have started slow and been boring and low-scoring. With that in mind, I'll take the points and say Cowboys by 3.

Go Lions.

Sorry these picks sucked, but I'm kinda bummed after making horrible picks so far.  Hopefully my strategy of not overthinking it will work.

Week Three Picks

Giants (1-1) @ Panthers (1-1)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 1
Actual Line: NYG by 1 

This is one of the biggest flip-a-coin games.   It's the Giants first road game, and they are inexplicably better on the road than at home under Eli Manning, who is coming off a crazy 500+ yard game.   Steve Smith is dealing with a sore knee but expected to play, while Ahmad Bradshaw is out with a neck injury.  (Note:  Nicks and Diehl are also out).  With a hampered Smith, the Panthers offense might stall on passing downs.  Usually I would take the home team for such a close spread, especially on a Thursday night, but since the Giants always play well on the road, and have the QB edge, I'll go Giants in a nail-biter, 26-23. 

Lions (1-1) @ Titans (0-2)
Predicted Line: DET by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 3.5

Excluding Cleveland, the Titans may be the worst team through two games.  Chris Johnson has 21 yards on 19 carries, meaning he left off exactly where he was in 2011, and Jake Locker has struggled to move the chains on 3rd downs.  When your $53 million dollar running back can't gain more than 37 inches per carry, the quarterback really has no chance, so I'm not bailing on Locker as a quality quarterback just yet.

The Titans' defense has been equally reprehensible, falling into an early 21-3 deficit against New England and then a 14-0 hole against the Chargers in the first quarter.  Those are some good offenses, and the Titans' D doesn't have any good players, so it was to be expected ... but still.  

It's a good matchup for Detroit, who needs a big win to get their confidence up.  It certainly seems like the Lions should be able to win by more than a field goal ... but ... the Lions haven't exactly looked crisp.  All it would take would be a couple big runs by Sonic and one long pass to Kenny Britt, and this game would be close.  Locker can make plays with his legs, and he can buy time.  Tennessee's receiving corps isn't one of the best, but against Detroit's feeble pass defense, guys like Kendall Wright and Jared Cook might have the best games of their seasons.  I do like Detroit to get the win, but this game could very easily be close.  

However, I'm going to be a homer (again) and say the Lions go up 14-0 early and hold on strong, 31-17.  

Rams (1-1) @ Bears (1-1)
Predicted Line: CHI by 6.5
Actual Line: CHI by 8

A couple decent stats that are conflicting ... 

Since 2001, the Rams are 20-34 ATS when playing on grass. 

Jay Cutler is 32-48 ATS overall. 

I guess the real question is, how will Jay Cutler respond to one of the worst games ever played by an NFL quarterback?  And how will the Rams play coming off a huge back-and-forth win? Sam Bradford played his best game in a long time last week.   

I'm liking what Jeff Fisher has done to make the Rams competitive, and I like the Finnegan-Marshall matchup in St. Louis's favor ... so I guess I'll take the points.  Maybe Bradford can keep it rolling a little bit.  Bears 30-24. 

Bills (1-1) @ Browns (0-2)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3.5
Actual Line: BUF by 3 

Driving home from Ohio last weekend, I was able to catch most of the Bengals-Browns on the radio.  From that game, a few things were apparent about Cleveland: 
 -Trent Richardson is awesome. 
 -Brandon Weeden is not. 
 -The Browns defense without Joe Haden is just despicable. 

Since Haden is still out, I'm going to take my chance with the Bills +4.   Buffalo 27-20. 

Bucs (1-1) @ Cowboys (1-1)
Predicted Line: DAL by 6.5
Actual Line: DAL by 7 

I never like to lay more than a touchdown with a team as inconsistent as the Cowboys. But what the heck.  Total talent mismatch.  Dallas 34-23. 

Jaguars (0-2) @ Colts (1-1)
Predicted Line: IND by 3.5
Actual Line: IND by 3

Blaine Gabbert is questionable with some sort of hamstring malady, but if Chad Henne starts,  the line should be about the same.  After all, Gabbert threw for 53 yards last week and didn't convert a single third down.  So Henne can't possibly be a downgrade.   

Luck looked really solid in his first home game last week, completing 20 passes and utilizing Donnie Avery along with Reggie Wayne to pick apart the Vikings D.  He should be able to keep it rolling against a lackluster Jags secondary.  On the other side, Jones-Drew should be able to move the ball, but 8 or 9 Colts in the box will force the Jags to throw eventually.  I like Indy's chances with the points.  Colts 23-17.  

Jets (1-1) @ Dolphins (1-1)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: NYJ by 3 

Miami doesn't have any NFL caliber receivers, but nonetheless it would still be helpful for the Jets if they can get Darrelle Revis back on the field.  He's still questionable with concussion symptoms, and without him, the Jets defense is really unspectacular.  

Miami is coming off a surprising beatdown of the Raiders, with Reggie Bush looking like a legit former #2 overall pick, rushing for 172 yards and 2 scores.  Here's a preposterous stat for you: in his first 76 NFL games, Reggie rushed for 100+ yards just 2 times;  in his last 6 games, he's gone over 100 yards 5 times, averaging 126 yards per game in those contents.  Did we all miss something -- is Bush suddenly a top 10 fantasy running back in Miami, after years of being afraid to run through the tackles?  I sure hope not.  But I'm extremely confused as to how this is happening. 

With Sanchez and Tannehill doing battle, I'm not expecting a whole lot of points, and since Miami has the better O-line, better D-line, and homefield advantage, I guess I'll take the 3 points.  How bout Jets 17-16. 

49ers (2-0) @ Vikings (1-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 8
Actual Line: SF by 7.5 

San Fran sits comfortably atop the Power Rankings on just about everybody's list.  Minnesota is rebuilding.  So obviously, I'm taking the favorite, right?   .... Well, no. I have a problem about laying 8 points with Alex Smith on the road.  It seems too weird.  Plus, the Vikes do have Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen ... so I will say 49ers win by just 4, 20-16. 

Chiefs (0-2) @ Saints (0-2)
Predicted Line: NO by 7
Actual Line: NO by 9 

Both teams allowed 40 points in opening day losses at home, and then both teams went on the road and allowed 35 points in week two.  Weird.  The Saints have actually been scoring points, unlike the Chiefs, but neither team has looked sharp.  

The Chiefs are pretty stacked with talent on defense, but I'm taking Brees at home to get the win.  But since it's a total desperation game for KC, I think they'll keep it within 9.   Saints 33-27.  

Bengals (1-1) @ Redskins (1-1)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 4 


Driving home from Ohio last weekend, I was able to catch most of the Bengals-Browns on the radio.  From that game, a few things were apparent about Cincinnati: 
 -AJ Green is a beast. 
 -Andy Dalton ... not that impressive. 
 -The Bengals secondary really struggles. 

The losses of Orakpo and Carriker need to be taken into account ... Cincy should have plenty of time to throw the ball, and BJGE should have plenty of running room.  But I still think RG3 is able to outscore them in his first NFL home game.  Skins 30-23.    Man, I hate siding with Mike Shanahan.  

Eagles (2-0) @ Cardinals(2-0)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3.5
Actual Line: PHI by 4 

I've heard this described several times as "The Kevin Kolb Revenge Game!!!!!!!"   

Which made me wonder .... why does Kevin Kolb want revenge?  Because the Eagles drafted him in the early 2nd round, benched McNabb for him on multiple occasions, started him when McNabb was hurt, then traded McNabb so he could be their guy ... but when Kolb's concussion jumpstarted the Michael Vick Redemption Story, the Eagles had no choice but to trade him ... and they were offered 180 cents on the dollar for him, so they gave him to a team that desperately wanted to make him their franchise QB, and then that team immediately gave him a $62 million dollar contract.  Yeah, he must be pissed at the Eagles for making his dreams come true and helping him become obscenely wealthy.

Instead, let's call this the "Eagles Are So Glad They Traded Kevin Kolb!!!" game. 

Philly by 13.  No way Arizona goes 3-0.

Falcons (2-0) @ Chargers (2-0)
Predicted Line: SD by 1
Actual Line: SD by 3

I think the return of Ryan Matthews proves to be a big deal.  Matt Ryan struggles on the road, and he struggles even more on grass. Chargers in a big statement game, 34-23. 

Texans (2-0) @ Broncos (1-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 1
Actual Line: HOU by 3

Assuming he doesn't have another 3-INT first quarter, it will be interesting to see how Peyton is able to execute the no-huddle against the ferocious Texans' defense.  I'm not going against him, at home, with 3 points.  I'll say Broncos win straight-up, 30-29.

Steelers (1-1) @ Raiders (0-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6
Actual Line: PIT by 4.5

Steelers rarely lose the week before their bye, so I'm not worried about the long cross-country trip.  Oakland might be able to move the ball a little, but their D won't be able to slow down the trio of speedy receivers that Pittsburgh has.  Big day for Ben.  PIT 35-21. 

Patriots (1-1) @ Ravens (1-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 2.5
Actual Line: BAL by 3

I always like taking the points with elite QBs.  I actually like the Pats straight-up, though I'm very torn.  Hernandez's injury is huge, but Brady will figure something out.  Patriots 27-24. 

Packers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 4
Actual Line: GB by 3.5

Seattle's homefield is good, Aaron Rodgers is better.  I'm taking the Pack big - 31-13. 


That's all I got ... GO LIONS. 

Week 2 Wrap Up & Thoughts on the Lions

Lousy week.  Went 6-9-1 ATS and 7-9 straight up.  Next time I think I'll just flip a coin 16 times and try to predict the outcome.

The Pats lost to Arizona, the NFC West went 4-0, and the Saints are the only NFC team without a win.  I'm confused, and now just 14-17-1 ATS and 18-14 straight up for the year.  Hopefully things are starting to come into focus for week three.  

Instead of trudging through the details of every crazy game, I'm going to stick to the only topic I'm certain I know anything about anymore ... the Lions.

Here are my thoughts on the 27-19 Sunday night loss to San Francisco ...

• Let's start with the most pressing issue:  the Lions' secondary.
  
• I'll start with this - Chris Houston, Louis Delmas, and Amari Spievy did not play.  That's three starters.  Not three great starters, but three starters.  Houston and Delmas were supposed to play, but apparently they weren't ready.   We need them back, and should have them back this week.
  
• Instead, we got a starting lineup of Drayton Florence (cut by the Broncos earlier this year), Jacob Lacey (cut by the Colts), John Wendling (cut by the Bills in 2010), and Erik Coleman (cut by the Falcons last year).   Let's be honest about what this is - a solid Division 1 secondary.  You could swap this quartet out with any team in the SEC and call it a wash.  None of these 4 guys are NFL caliber as starting defensive backs.  All 4 are serviceable backups (though not what I would call good depth) and Wendling serves as a great special teams player.  Lacey was miserable last year on a 2-14 team, and Coleman and Florence were just happy to find a job.  (Incidentally, Florence broke his forearm and will be out for the rest of the year).  Remember, we also used to have CB Aaron Berry (who sucked), but he was released after his second arrest of the summer.  And we lost CB Eric Wright (who sucked) in free agency.  We also cut CB Alphonso Smith (who sucked too).
• The frustrating thing is, we have fantastic depth at other defensive positions.  For a cheap way of analysis, consider the overall player ratings on the Madden scale.  Our starting D line averages an 87 on Madden.  Our normal starting secondary would be about a 72.  This makeshift secondary is maybe a 55.   The frustrating part is -- our 4 backups on the D line average about an 80.  When your backup D line is way better than your starting secondary, you know you've got problems.
• So here we are, 5 years removed from the 0-16 season, and still talking about our inept secondary.  The fact is -- Jim Schwartz and Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand have repeatedly neglected the secondary in favor of flashier positions.
• I have no problem with the 1st round selections of Suh and Reiff ... those were good picks ... and Fairley wasn't horrible, though he should have been Prince Amukamara ... but 3rd round picks like WR Derrick Williams and RB Aaron Brown ... and 2nd rounders RB Mikel LeShoure, WR Titus Young and WR Ryan Broyles ... not to mention 1st rounder Jahvid Best ... at least two of those picks should incontrovertibly have been starting cornerbacks.  For that matter, Brandon Pettigrew (20th overall) could have been stud CB Vontae Davis.  Pettigrew is a decent player, but Vontae is much better overall.
• Remember that wretched Derrick Williams pick in the 3rd round of 2009?  Did you know that 6 picks later, Lardarius Webb (currently the 4th best CB in the league) went to the Ravens.  Let's see ... Williams had 9 receptions in his stunning career ... and Webb has 7 interceptions ... so it's basically a wash.  Thank goodness we had Matt Millen to advise us on that pick.
• I'm not saying the Lions should be able to get every draft pick right.  No one can do that.  I'm just saying, if you don't ever pick a cornerback, you definitely won't improve the secondary.  It's better to swing and miss on a CB than take a 5th string receiver.
• But routinely, we wait until the 5th or 7th round to grab some corner from the University of Little Switzerland who has ... wait for it ... "great upside."   Sorry Chris Greenwood and Bill Bentley, but if you were passed on by every NFL team 4 times, I'm not thrilled about watching you try to guard Vernon Davis with millions of people watching.  Unfortunately, Schwartz lives by a faulty logic that says -- just bring in anybody who can fog a mirror, and the fans will think you've improved the secondary.  Bonus if the guy has dreads.  But it requires more than warm bodies and new names to improve our chronically terrible pass defense.  We need guys with speed, size, instincts, playmaking skills ... we need guys who can stop Michael Crabtree on 3rd and long when the game is on the line ...  we need guys who can keep Brandon Gibson out of the endzone ... we need to be able to defend a deep pass without interference ... we need NFL-freaking-caliber cornerbacks!!  And until we get them, we're going no where in the playoffs.
• It's not like we haven't had a chance to find these guys before.  Asante Samuel was ours for the taking, but we passed.  Same with Cortland Finnegan.  And we could have made a run at Jonathan Joseph.  But we always pass on the high-end CBs in free agency, because we're confident that when the Arena Football League has its final roster cuts, we can swoop in and find our starting secondary.    

• There are numerous other problems with this team.  The running game -- Best can't get healthy, LeShoure can't get his head out of his ass, and Kevin Smith has no explosion.  The O-line -- sometimes good, sometimes bad, usually mediocre.   The outside linebackers -- very average.  The pass rush -- overrated.  Coaching -- rage is not a substitute for a gameplan.
• But it has to be said that so far this season, one of the biggest weaknesses has been Matthew Stafford's decision making and accuracy. (Uh oh.)  What's going on -- is he regressing?  Was last year a fluke?  Is this year a fluke? Did he spend the offseason boozing and signing autographs and forget how to throw a simple screen pass?  His throws seem telegraphed and his delivery seems slow.  His ability to look off the safety and step up in the pocket appears to have vanished.  He is especially inaccurate on short passes, even bubble screens.  Is it rust?  Is he feeling the pressure of high expectations?  Should we not overreact to just 2 games?  Should we be extremely concerned that the crappy Rams picked him off 3 times?  Why does he not ever throw the ball to Burleson or Young?  Why doesn't Broyles even see the field?  
• You know what Stafford needs ... he needs to face the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed an average passer rating of 118 through 2 games.
• For the record, I'm not even close to panicking about Stafford ... I think he'll end up the season as a fringe top 5 QB.  But I'm simply pointing out that the first two games have been ugly.  And if we didn't have Megatron, we'd be 0-2 on the way to 4-12.
• A few others thoughts ...
• Either Broyles or Titus should be running back kicks.  Logan doesn't have it anymore.
• Can't wait to have Leshoure back next week.  Not expecting him to be great, but Kevin Smith sure as heck can't carry the load.  Smith is pretty much only valuable on screen passes.
• The D-line is overpursuing and getting trapped ... just like last year.  They've got to learn some patience and play smart.  We gave up 27 yards on that Manningham end-around because Cliff Avril cut inside instead of sealing off the edge, which allowed the pulling guard to move to the next level and block the linebacker, which turns a 3 yard play into a 27 yard play.  That kind of crap has to stop.  I learned about sealing off the edge in 5th grade.  Come on Avril.
• When is Reiff going to play?  Can't we at least let Reiff play the 2nd quarter or something while Gosder sits?  It's not like Gosder has done anything to deserve a starting role. I'm just saying, 1st round rookies shouldn't sit the bench.  Don't draft an offensive lineman if you're not prepared to play him.
• I know it's early, but the Lions desperately need to win both of the next two games before the bye (@TEN, home for MIN). Sitting at 3-1 with 2 weeks to prepare for tough road games @Philly and @Chicago gives us a good chance to be 4-2 heading into a pretty easy stretch of games (SEA, @JAC, @MIN) which leads up to a crucial three-game homestand (GB, HOU, IND).  Then it's @Green Bay, @Arizona, and then we finish up with two NFC games at home - Atlanta and Chicago.  I see us being 10-5 heading into week 17 against the Bears, with the winner of that game being playoff bound and the loser going home.  But first things first, we gotta take care of the Titans.
• The NFC is in a really strange place after two weeks.  The 49ers have stood out as the best team and the clearest playoff team, while the Eagles have completely sucked but are also 2-0.  Eleven teams are 1-1, including the entire NFC North,  while the Falcons (2-0) have an important early lead on the 0-2 Saints, who can now play the "Nobody Believed In Us!" card for the rest of the season.  Among the 1-1 teams, St. Louis, Minnesota, and Seattle are the only ones I would feel safe about eliminating from serious playoff contention.  The entire NFC East is legit, although Washington lost both outside linebackers (Orakpo and Carriker) to season-ending injuries. The jury is out on how serious Carolina and Tampa will be as playoff contenders.
• Then, there's the Cardinals, who are 2-0 after shocking the Pats in Foxboro.  I have no idea how that happened, but I do know the Cards' D is no joke.  Bill Bellichick praised Calais Campbell after the game as one of the best D-linemen in the league, which is good enough for me to buy in.  Granted, the Pats should have won, almost won, and would win 19 times out of 20 if the teams played again.  But still, Arizona is 2-0, so for now, they have to be reckoned with in the wildcard chase.
• In the AFC, it's interesting to see Houston and San Diego as the only undefeateds, while 5 teams are winless, with Cleveland looking the most hapless of the bunch and having a clear lead in the Matt Barkley Sweepstakes. Baltimore looks like the best 1-1 team in the league, with the Packers and Pats (who apparently won't be going 19-0) close behind  The game of the week is New England @ Baltimore on Sunday night.   Aaron Hernandez is out for a while, and Wes Welker appears to be behind Julian Edelman on the depth chart.  (My gut tells me Welker gets traded by the end of the week).
• Week Three picks will be up soon.  Hopefully I can get some dang games right this time. 
  
  
  
  
• GO LIONS!

Week One Wrap Up & Two Picks

The bad news?  My week one picks sucked.   I was dead wrong about almost everything. (Well, actually I ended up 8-8 ATS and 11-5 straight-up, which was a whole lot better than Andy who went 5-11 ATS ... but the picks certainly felt as if they sucked.)

The other bad news -  I lost in the "A" league to my idiot brother ... the same guy who drafted Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Donald Driver because apparently he thinks it's 2004.  I may have the worst team of anybody after week one. This is deja vu from last season; my running backs are atrocious.

The good news?  The Lions have a better record than the Packers. And, a better record than the Steelers.  Also,  I went 9-1 in my other 10 fantasy leagues, three of which I care about somewhat.  I have some really kick ass teams.  Unfortunately, none of them are in the league that involves money.

Here are the game recaps:

Bears 41, Colts 21  
At one point, Cutler was 1 for 10 with a pick.  I felt pretty good about the Colts covering the 9 points and about the Lions going to the playoffs.  Then, the Bears karate chopped the Colts in the neck.  Andrew Luck was pretty solid, but the Bears D was better. The Indy D is still a complete wreck, even with Vontae Davis.   Apparently Brandon Marshall is going to win me $375 imaginary dollars from my over/under picks for most receiving yards.

Lions 27, Rams 23 
Just thinking about this game is making my entire body feel like it's on fire, so I'm going to just say this - we escaped with a lucky ass win.

Eagles 17, Browns 16 
Pretty sure you have to be able to beat the worst team in the league before you call yourself a dynasty.  Just saying.

Patriots 34, Titans 13
On the way to 19-0, the Pats' offense looked unstoppable and the Pats' D looked respectable.  They held Chris Johnson to something like 4 yards on 12 carries.  Crazy.  Also, to the millions of fantasy junkies around the world who are excited about Steven Ridley (21 carries for 125 and a TD), I feel bad for you.  I'd be willing to bet that Ridley doesn't receive 20 carries again for the rest of his Patriot career.

Falcons 40, Chiefs 24 
I called this game almost exactly. Julio Jones is going to be a force to be reckoned with this year, especially in fantasy ... too bad I wasn't able to draft him in any relevant leagues.  Chiefs D was without a couple key players; they'll be better as the year goes on. Matt Cassel looked bad, but Charles looks fully recovered.

Vikings 26, Jags 23 (OT) 
I had the over on Vikes by 4, and I should have got this one right if Gabbert hadn't somehow led a last-minute TD drive.  Blaine wasn't nearly as bad as he was last year, with a QB rating of 96.1.  Last year, in 15 starts, he never had a QB rating above 92, and on the road he never had a QB rating above 70.  So, big improvements from him. He also set career highs in completions (23) and yards (260).  So in other words, the strategy of taking fantasy DSTs that go against Gabbert may not be foolproof.

Adrian Peterson is back.  Oh crap.

Redskins 40, Saints 32
I watched about 12 plays of this game, and that was all I needed to conclude: RG3 is legit.  I was wrong about him.  I'm just going to jump off the 'Hate RG3' wagon now before I say more stupid things.  That dude can freaking throw, and his confidence in the pocket was astounding.  I'm going to reverse my previous statements completely and say that not only will RG3 win ROY, but the Skins will win 8+ games and they'll be a Super Bowl contender by 2015.

Jets 48, Bills 28
Who saw that coming? After scoring a whopping zero touchdowns in the preseason, the Jets' offense scored 6 in this game.  After the game, Mario Williams lamely complained about the replacement refs not calling enough holding penalties (honestly, who does that?). Also, Fred Jackson is hurt for about 4 games.  And Ryan Fitzpatrick looked a mess. Bad times coming for Buffalo.  As for the Jets ... let's wait and see.

Texans 30, Dolphins 10
Ryan Tannehill was predictably awful, with a QB rating of 39.  I seem to remember writing something in April about how Tannehill's A&M team was only 7-6 against a mediocre college schedule, including 1-5 against ranked teams.  If he couldn't beat Kansas State, how the heck can he beat NFL teams?

I'm not officially doing the "Survivor" challenge thing (where you pick one team to win straight up every week, and can't take the same team twice), but if I was, Houston would have been my week one pick.

49ers 30, Packers 22
The crazy thing is, the game wasn't as close as the score makes it look.  Rodgers was constantly under pressure, the Niners D looked like men against boys, and Navarro Bowman looked like he may actually be better than Patrick Willis, making them possibly the two best linebackers in the league, on the same freaking time.  Jim Harbaugh also looked like a guy with serious rage issues throughout the entire contest, from start to finish.  He's probably going to die before the age of 50 from exploding blood vessels.

Cardinals 20, Seahawks 16
So much for Bill Simmons's prediction about the Seahawks going to the Super Bowl.  Russell Wilson might be benched for Matt Flynn within a week or two.  Both of these teams are awful.

Bucs 16, Panthers 10 
With Jonathan Stewart out, I was expecting a nice game for DeAngelo Williams ... 6 carries for -1 yards ... not so much.  Could this be the beginning of a Cam Newton Sophomore Slump? Does this mean Tampa should be considered a real contender for the wildcard?  I am guessing "no" for both questions.

Two stats worth noting - 1) Cam had more than twice as many passing yards as Freeman, and 2) rookie Doug Martin had 28 touches compared to LeGarrette Blount's 4.  So if you drafted Martin, congratulations.

Broncos 31, Steelers 19 
Peyton Manning is a No Huddle Robot.  Simply unbelievable.  He's back.

Ravens 44, Bengals 13 
Joe Flacco for MVP?

Chargers 22, Raiders 14 
Oakland was the better team, moving the ball more effectively all night.  The Bolts' D doesn't look to be very competitive at all.  But Oakland managed to screw up THREE punts, two of which were the fault of the long snapper.  That was the difference.  By the way, did you notice McFadden had 13 receptions? And 18 targets?  That's very un-Carson Palmer like ... but it suddenly makes McFadden seem like a top 3 fantasy back ... you know, if he stays healthy of course.

So without further ado ... the Week Two Picks (slightly rushed because I have the flu)

Bears (1-0) @ Packers (0-1) 
Predicted Line: GB by 5.5
Actual Line: GB by 5 

I'd love to see the Pack fall to 0-2, but I'd rather see the Bears lose.  Either way is good for the Lions.  Best case scenario is that a key player from either team gets seriously hurt.  Not like paralyzed or anything, but I'd gladly take a shattered fibula.  Yeah, I just said that.

With Jennings doubtful, it's tempting to take the Bears and the points.  But something tells me Rodgers will be too much for the Bears D.  I'll say Packers 27-17.

Lions (1-0) @ 49ers (1-0)
Predicted Line: SF by 6
Actual Line: SF by 7 

If the Lions try to establish the run, they're screwed.  You just can't run on Justin Smith & Patrick Willis & Navarro Bowman.  Especially not with Kevin Smith.  It's not worth trying.  They need to come out passing on 1st downs.  And 2nd downs.  And every down.  They need to target Megatron at least 15 times ... and use their biggest asset (the double/triple teams on Calvin) to move the ball using Titus, Nate and Broyles.  Hopefully Titus can make it through the first half without a temper tantrum, so Schwartz doesn't have to bench him again.  San Fran has a deadly pass rush, so we're probably going to need to keep Pettigrew on the line often, and maybe Will Heller as well.  Give Backus some help in this game, and Gosder too.

The problem is that San Fran can rush the passer using only 4 or 5 guys (or sometimes 3), so we're not going to find much open space in the secondary.  That's why Calvin's double teams are so valuable.  Also, Stafford needs to heavily utilize the slot guy and screen passes and all that jazz.  To beat a defense like this, you need to keep them guessing.  Running Kevin Smith up the middle for 1 yard is just not going to work.  

The way to stop the San Fran offense is simple - stuff the run on early downs.  Force Alex Smith to throw on 3rd and 8, 3rd and 10, etc.  Force him to throw into coverage, and he will make mistakes. Fortunately, we've got Houston and Delmas coming back.  I can't watch anymore 5th string rookies trying to play man coverage.

Our run D looked great last week, slowing down the beastly Steven Jackson.   Gore is a little quicker and more agile than Jackson, but less physically imposing.  The outside linebackers (Durant and Levy) need to step up, and the DEs need to control the line.  This could be a huge game for Suh.

I actually like Detroit.  Any time you can get 7 points with the superior QB, it's a decent bet.  Lions 23-19.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)
Predicted Line: KC by 1.5
Actual Line: BUF by 3

I know I liked the Bills as my sleeper back in May, but I'm jumping off ship and overreacting to week one.  Especially with Fred Jackson out.  The Chiefs D is back at full strength and should be dominant.  I'm assuming Matt Cassel will make enough mistakes to keep the game close, but I think the Chiefs come out on top, 23-22.

Browns (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)
Predicted Line: CIN by 7.5
Actual Line: CIN by 7

I don't think I've ever seen a QB rating in the single digits before.  But Brandon Weeden's 12 for 35 for 118 yards and 4 picks landed him a 5.1 QB rating.  Wow.  And amazingly, the Browns almost won that game.

The lesson: if a QB wasn't that great in college, he's not going to be that great in the pros.  I like Cincy big.  With Joe Haden's suspension beginning this week, AJ Green could go off.  How about Bengals 33-6.

Vikings (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)
Predicted Line: IND by 3
Actual Line: MIN by 1.5

It's actually quite possible that Minnesota is leading the NFC North after two weeks.  Crazy.  But I'm not betting against Andrew Luck in his first home game.  Indy 26-23.

Raiders (0-1) @ Dolphins (0-1)
Predicted Line: OAK by 1
Actual Line: OAK by 3

You're never supposed to take a West Coast team in a 1pm game.  But against Miami, and Ryan Tannehill? I'm torn.  Guess I'll go with the points.  Raiders 21-20.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)
Predicted Line: NE by 16.5
Actual Line: NE by 14 

I'm calling it now: 6 TDs for Brady.  By halftime.  Patriots 54-17.  Lock of the week and Survivor pick. Why can't the oddsmakers go out on a limb and make the spread NE by 35.  That would at least be interesting.

Bucs (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)
Predicted Line: NYG by 6.5
Actual Line: NYG by 7.5 

Eli plays with very little urgency, so I could see this game staying close until the end.  There's not a lot to like about the Giants' defense, as they were shredded by some guy named Ogeltree.  But, there is Jason Pierre-Paul ... I don't know, I guess I'll take the Giants by 6.

Ravens (1-0) @ Eagles (1-0)
Predicted Line: BAL by 1.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3

This game should feature one of the league's best left tackles against one of the best pass rushers. However, both Jason Peters and Terrell Suggs are out with offseason injuries. Jeremy Maclin is also out.  Ladarius Webb should be able to contain DeSean Jackson, and even without Suggs, the Ravens D should be able to corral Vick (who looked abysmal against Cleveland).  I love getting points with the better team.  Ravens 20-16. Might as well make it the Upset of the week.

Saints (0-1) @ Panthers (0-1)
Predicted Line: NO by 1.5
Actual Line: NO by 3 

Both teams really sucked last week.  I don't know which way to lean. Drew Brees seems like the safer bet.  Saints by 6.

Texans (1-0) @ Jaguars (0-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 7.5

I don't like giving more than a TD on the road.  Plus, Blaine Gabbert looked somewhat functional last week. I'll take the Texans 23-19.

Redskins (1-0) @ Rams (0-1)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4
Actual Line: WAS by 3 

I'm all in on RG3.  And the Rams really suck.  Skins by 4.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Seahawks (0-1)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3

This should be a low-scoring affair.  Seattle's D is very decent against both the run and the pass.  On the other side, the trio of Carr, Claiborne and Ware makes the Cowboys a nightmare to try to throw against.  It's going to come down to whether or not Marshawn Lynch can carry the load against a mediocre Cowboys rush defense.  And since I am clearly not a believer in Marshawn Lynch, I'll take Dallas, 17-13.

Jets (1-0) @ Steelers (0-1)
Predicted Line: PIT by 4.5
Actual Line: PIT by 6 

Steelers, 34-17. I'd bet on at least 1 defensive TD and 1 special teams TD for Pittsburgh.  They always make those kinds of plays at home.

Titans (0-1) @ Chargers (1-0)
Predicted Line: SD by 3
Actual Line: SD by 6 

Locker is doubtful, and Chris Johnson gained only 4 yards last week.  But, Kenny Britt returns from suspension, and Matt Hasslebeck doesn't make many mistakes.  So the Titans should score some points. Can Rivers keep up?  Will Ryan Matthews actually play or is he going to do the "gametime decision" thing for 10 weeks like Antonio Gates did last year? I don't know, but I feel better taking the 6 points. I'll say Bolts by 3.

Broncos (1-0) @ Falcons (1-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3
Actual Line: ATL by 3 

Having watched Peyton last weekend, I'll take the points.  Broncos 32-31.

Go Lions.

Week One Picks

Well, tonight is the night.  It's actually pretty embarrassing how excited I am to watch football.  Before I begin the week one picks, I have some unfinished business regarding my official 2012 Predictions.

Offensive MVP - Tom Brady (runner up, Rodgers)
Defensive MVP - Jason Pierre Paul (runner up, Suh)

Offensive ROY - Andrew Luck (runner up, RG3)
Defensive ROY - Melvin Ingram (runner up, Claiborne)

Coach of the Year - Bill Belichick
Comeback Player of the Year - Peyton Manning

AFC East - Pats (16-0)
AFC North - Steelers (12-4)
AFC South - Texans (10-6)
AFC West - Broncos (11-5)
AFC Wildcards - Chargers (10-6), Titans (9-7)

Rest of the AFC:
Bills (9-7), Ravens (9-7), Chiefs (8-8), Colts (8-8), Bengals (7-9), Dolphins (5-11), Jets (5-11), Jags (4-12), Browns (4-12), Raiders (2-14)

NFC East - Cowboys (11-5)
NFC North - Packers (13-3)
NFC South - Falcons (11-5)
NFC West - 49ers (9-7)
NFC Wildcards - Lions (11-5), Saints (10-6)

Rest of the NFC:
Giants (10-6), Eagles (9-7), Panthers (9-7), Bears (9-7), Rams (7-9), Redskins (6-10), Bucs (6-10), Cardinals (5-11), Vikings (5-11), Seahawks (3-13)

Playoffs:
Broncos DEF Titans
Chargers DEF Texans
Lions DEF 49ers
Cowboys DEF Saints

Patriots DEF Chargers
Steelers DEF Broncos

Packers DEF Lions
Cowboys DEF Falcons

Pats DEF Steelers
Packers DEF Cowboys

Super Bowl:
Patriots over Packers, 34-30
*Yes, I have the Patriots going 19-0.  I also think Brady will throw for 5,500 yards.

Top 5 Picks in 2013 Draft -
1. Raiders (2-14) - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
2. Seahawks (3-13) - Robert Woods, WR, USC
3. Browns (4-12) - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
4. Jaguars (4-12) - Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
5. Jets (5-11) - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

What else ...

Okay, I think DeMarco Murray wins the rushing title, Andre Johnson leads the league in receiving yards, Jimmy Graham leads in receptions, and Carson Palmer leads in interceptions.  I think Andrew Luck plays more games than RG3 and Russell Wilson combined, I think Brandon LaFell overtakes Steve Smith as the #1 receiver in Carolina, I think Jake Locker and Christian Ponder are both better than Andy Dalton this year, I think Pat Shurmur (Cleveland) will be the first coach fired, I also think big name coaches Rex Ryan, Lovie Smith, Andy Reid and Mike Shanahan will be canned after missing the playoffs ... and lastly ... I think if anyone can break the Madden Curse, it's Calvin Johnson.

On to the week one picks:

Cowboys @ Giants
Predicted Line: NYG by 3.5
Actual Line: NYG by 4

 This game features arguably the two best pass rushers in the NFL, DeMarcus Ware and Jason Pierre-Paul, and also two of the most up-and-down quarterbacks.  The Giants' primary weakness is their secondary and coverage linebackers, and the Cowboys' main struggle is the interior of their offensive line.  Both of these weaknesses should be on display, as the other team has the exact personnel to take advantage.

It's a major revenge game for Dallas, who lost twice to the G-Men late last season and consequently missed the playoffs.  It's also a chance for the disrespected Giants to say "Damn it, we're Super Bowl champs and nobody gives us any credit."

The biggest matchups to watch are Tyron Smith against JPP, rookie CB Morris Claiborne against Victor Cruz, and Dez Bryant's brain against stupidity.

Both teams like to throw the ball like crazy, sometimes to their own detriment.  Both teams are known for mental mistakes and drama.  Eli Manning is the more polished, accomplished QB, but Romo is more talented and much more athletic.  Both teams have loads of talent at the skill positions.  I've watched enough highlight videos of DeMarco Murray to confidently say he might be the best offensive player in this game, and could completely dominate if Dallas commits to giving him the ball, which they probably won't.

Jason Witten is out with a spleen, DT Jat Ratliff is also out for Dallas, and Hakeen Nicks is questionable as he recovers from a broken foot.

It should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle to kickoff the season, with the winner being decided in the final 2 minutes.  If that's the case, I'll take the points.  Dallas 37, Giants 35.

It's not very often I get to watch an entire non-Lions game, so this one was especially fantastic.  My thoughts: 

-I'm off to a good start with the prediction about DeMarco winning the rushing title.  He looked phenomenally like an AP clone last night, as I've been saying for a year.  If he stays healthy for 16 games, not only will he run for 1,800 yards, but he'll average 5.5 per carry.  And the funny thing is, Dallas underutilized him last night, especially in the passing game.  

-Jason Pierre-Paul and DeMarcus Ware were as good as advertised.  Holy smokes.  Justin Tuck, on the other hand, was invisible.  

-Tony Romo does a lot of things well, but snapping the ball on time is not one of them.  He rushed to get the ball snapped before the play clock over and over and over  ... including 2 delay of games and 1 panic timeout.  What a dumb thing to struggle with.  

-Dallas's offensive line sucked, with something like 7 penalties, including 3 on Tyron Smith, who is supposed to be their best tackle.  But Murray made plays out of nothing, and Romo escaped the pass rush pretty effortlessly.  I don't think the O-line will be detrimental for them this year; it'll just make them more interesting.  But they do need to stop committing 13 penalties per game or they will be screwed.  

-Eli looked uber-relaxed, almost to the point of bored, as if he's been playing quarterback for 300 years and he doesn't really care what happens any more.  It was Brett Favre-ish almost.  He also clearly thought he could come back from down 14 points in the final 5 minutes without rushing too much ... and ultimately they didn't have enough time.  

-What the heck Kevin Ogletree??? Is he worth a fantasy pick up, or was that a crazy fluke?  I think the latter; Dallas was taking advantage of matchups, and they weren't using Witten in the passing game.  Miles Austin, however, did almost nothing until that late touchdown.  He is clearly the #2 receiver behind Dez.  

-Remember when Rob Ryan said that Calvin Johnson would be the 3rd best receiver on Dallas?  What a jackass.  He and Chris Carter can go suck a lemon.  

Can't wait til Sunday.  Go Lions! 

Colts @ Bears 
Predicted Line: CHI by 6.5
Actual Line: CHI by 9.5

That's way too many points.  I'm taking the Colts.  Bears 23-20.

Falcons @ Chiefs 
Predicted Line: ATL by 2
Actual Line: ATL by 3 

I know KC is typically tough at home, and lots of people love the Chiefs defense with Eric Berry healthy, but I like Atlanta big here. Especially if Brandon Flowers doesn't play.   This could finally be the year Matt Ryan begins to win on the road.  Falcons 27-13.

Eagles @ Browns
Predicted Line: PHI by 5
Actual Line: PHI by 9 

The Browns' best defensive player, CB Joe Haden, has been suspended 4 games for taking PEDs.  He's appealing, but best case scenario would be he gets it reduced to 2 games.  So assuming Haden doesn't play, the Eagles offense will completely roll.  Cleveland has no pass rush, and they can't stop the run.  On the flip side, Trent Richardson is questionable in what will be Brandon Weeden's first career start.  Against Trent Cole, Jason Babin, Nnamdi Asomugha ... yikes.  This will be one of the few times this year I take a road team to cover 9 points, but whatever: Eagles 30-0.

Patriots @ Titans
Predicted Line: NE by 5.5
Actual Line: NE by 6 

There's no measure to how much I love Tom Brady this year.  The addition of Lloyd to an offense with Gronk, Welker and Hernandez ... defenses are going to be completely hapless.  All the people who are picking Houston and Baltimore to come out of the AFC are forgetting one simple thing ...we are in the midst of watching the greatest QB in NFL history.  (Actually, the 3 best QBs of all time might be playing this year - Brady along with Peyton and Rodgers).  I think Tom Brady is the closest thing we've seen to Michael Jordan since Michael Jordan, meaning that he won't settle for anything short of a championship and will step on the faces of everyone in his way.  I expect lots of run-up-the-score games, lots of record to be broken, and lots of games that look like 40 for 55 for 520 yards and 4 TDs ... in other words, Brady might take a shot at 6,000 yards this season.  Who knows.   The funny thing is, I had Brady ranked #1 overall on my top-secret fantasy mental list, and yet wasn't able to draft him in a single league.

As for Tennessee ... I actually like them quite a bit.  I think they'll give the Lions a tougher-than-expected battle in week 3.  After a brutal start to the schedule puts them at 2-4, I think Locker responds impressively and helps them win 7 of their last 10, for a 9-7 record that sneaks them into the playoffs.  But for this game, they'll be slaughtered.  Pats 37-17.

Jags @ Vikings
Predicted Line: MIN by 3.5
Actual Line: MIN by 4

You've heard by now that MJD returned to the Jaguars, and will grudgingly play this season without a new contract. Kudos to Jags' management for not giving in.  Nowadays, paying big money to a running back is the worst investment an NFL team can make.

Rashad Jennings will get the start, with Jones-Drew coming out of the proverbial bullpen.  Minnesota hopes to use a similar tactic with Gerhart and AP.  Kind of strange to have two superstar running backs coming off the bench. But that's fitting for this atrocity of a football game.  I expect it'll come down to field position, special teams, and one or two big plays.  Percy Harvin is the biggest playmaker in the game, and Minnesota is at home, so I'll take my chances with them covering.  Vikes 20-13.

Redskins @ Saints
Predicted Line: NO by 5
Actual Line: NO by 7.5

I underestimated how excited people would be to bet on RG3, apparently.   I actually like Washington in a backdoor cover.  Maybe Griffin runs for a 75 yard TD late in the fourth quarter to make it close.  Saints 30-25.

Bills @ Jets 
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 3

Rex Ryan was recently asked if he thought he might be fired if the Jets miss the playoffs again.  He replied by saying he can't even fathom a situation where that could happen, but he understands that he might be fired in 10 or 15 years if the team decides to go in a different direction.   Whatever.  The Jets suck, their offense sucks, and their defense is super overrated.  Take away Revis and that's a 3-13 team.  I like the Bills straight up, 21-17.   Make it the Upset Special.

Rams @ Lions
Predicted Line: DET by 8.5
Actual Line: DET by 7.5 

I don't know what's more surprising ... the Lions being favored by more than a touchdown the first game of the season, or the fact that I think they should be favored by more.  I'm taking Detroit big, 31-20.  Rams don't have the receivers to keep up.

Dolphins @ Texans 
Predicted Line: HOU by 13
Actual Line: HOU by 12

How will Ryan Tannehill respond to his first few sacks and turnovers?  How will he respond to a 4-touchdown deficit at halftime?  Will the Dolphins try to keep passing the ball unsuccessfully and risk a confidence-shattering, 6 interception game, or will they concede the game and just run and punt?  They have no receivers whatsoever, and Houston has a ferocious pass rush.  Then, factor in Arian Foster and Ben Tate controlling the clock ... and this will be brutal.  Texans 35-13.   I'll call it the Lock of the Week.

49ers @ Packers
Predicted Line: GB by 5.5
Actual Line: GB by 5

In a dream scenario, the Niners would pull the upset, the Pack would split with Detroit and Chicago, and they'd lose to the Saints, Giants and Texans, for a 10-6 season that gives the Lions a chance to win the division.  I'm not prone to cheering for San Fran, but I doubt we'll have to worry about them in the Wildcard race (since the rest of the NFC West stinks), so it would be great to see Green Bay go down early.

For sure, Patrick Willis and company won't make it easy on Rodgers.  But Rodgers is something like 40-20 against the spread, so I'm not picking against him.  Packers by 7.

Seahawks @ Cardinals
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 3 

Huh???  Russell Wilson is favored on the road? What ???

I know Arizona has an unresolved QB issue, a horrible O-line and not much of a running game ... but they have Larry Fitzgerald, Patrick Peterson, and a solid front 7 on defense.   What does Seattle have?   Marshawn Lynch, using his millions to buy drugs and getting suspended as a result?   A rookie QB throwing to ... Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin?  Yes, they have a solid D, but with no elite players.  You could easily argue that Arizona's D is better - with Peterson, Darnell Docket, Calais Campbell ...

I certainly don't like either team, and Russell Wilson has the exciting possibility of running around and being black, while Arizona just has super boring and terrible John Skelton ... but I'm siding with the homedog, mainly because - who does Seattle have that can cover Larry Fitzgerald?   Cards 18-14.

Panthers @ Bucs
Predicted Line: CAR by 1.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3 

Another 3-point home underdog.  This one is the trickiest for me.  Tampa has a new coach, and a new regime that cleaned out the garbage and is starting fresh, kind of like what Jim Schwartz did with the pathetic 0-16 Lions.  But, in Schwartz's first game, the Lions allowed 6 passing TDs from Drew Brees and got beat down.  So I'm not expecting a shift for Tampa to be immediate.  Cam Newton is just too athletic for them in this game, and the Bucs offense has too many question marks, not the least of which is the loss of their starting right guard, two-time Pro Bowler David Joseph, who just went onto IR.  I like the Panthers, with the Bucs keeping it somewhat close. 27-23.

Steelers @ Broncos
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: DEN by 1.5

With two of the best two-minute drill QBs of all time, I fully expect this game will come down to the last team to possess the ball. No way to predict how that will turn out, but Roethlisberger's track record is such games is unmistakable.  Plus, Pittsburgh will be out to avenge their postseason loss to the Tebows.  On paper, the Steelers probably have 12 of the best 15 players in this game. So I'll go Pittsburgh, 27-23.

Bengals @ Ravens
Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5
Actual Line: BAL by 6

I feel like the talent disparity between these teams is a lot more than 6 points.  I like Baltimore by about 14.

Chargers @ Raiders 
Predicted Line: SD by 2.5
Actual Line: OAK by 1 

All the hype is pointing in Oakland's direction, and the injury to Ryan Matthews doesn't help San Diego.  But Oakland's secondary is an abomination, and Rivers should be able to pick them apart.  This should be high-scoring, with the better QB coming out on top.  Bolts 45-31.
 
There you have it.  GO LIONS.