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Sunday, August 5, 2012

NFL Odds

Last year, I picked each team's over/under and assigned each pick with a level of confidence.  Although I ended up at .500 with 14 wins and 14 loses (and a few abstains), my overall confidence votes favored slightly on the winning side. This year, I decided to switch it up a little and limit the number of over/under predictions to the 20 teams I felt most convinced about, while using updated Vegas odds and making imaginary bets that reflect my confidence in the pick and in the odds.  (There are various sites that show various odds, but I found these at the Bovada Sportsbook, which seems to be reputable.)

I also went ahead and made some 'Prop' bets, for a total of 38 bets for the 2012 regular season, and a total (pretend) wager of $2,065.

Here you go:

TEAM OVER/UNDER BETS
     
Arizona, under 7 wins            
-150 Odds             $40 bet          
$26.80 profit           $66.80 return
Why - Tough schedule, bad QB.

Note -
Odds of -150 means if you bet $150, you get $100 back.
Odds of +150 means if you bet $100, you get $150 back.
Etc.

Baltimore, under 10 wins      
-130 Odds             $40 bet        
$30.80 profit            $70.80 return
Why - Suggs' injury.

Buffalo, over 8 wins              
EVEN Odds          $50 bet          
$50.00 profit            $100.00 return
Why - This is their year.

Chicago, under 9.5 wins        
-130 Odds            $60 bet          
$46.20 profit           $106.20 return
Why - 9.5 is way too high. Defense is declining.

Cincinnati, under 8 wins        
-110 Odds             $70 bet        
$63.70 profit            $133.70 return
Why - They overachieved last year. Also, Dalton has red hair.

Dallas, over 8.5 wins              
-140 Odds           $50 bet          
$35.50 profit           $85.50 return
-Turned their biggest weakness (CB) into a strength.

Denver, over 9 wins              
-120 Odds             $50 bet          
$41.50 profit           $91.50 return
Why - Pretty sold on Peyton.

Green Bay, over 12 wins        
-115 Odds            $70 bet        
$60.90 profit          $130.90 return
Why - They won 15 last year.

Indy, over 5 wins                    
-125 Odds            $60 bet          
$48.00 profit          $108.00 return
Why - Andrew Luck is going to be awesome.

Jacksonville, under 5.5 wins    
EVEN Odds         $90 bet          
$90.00 profit          $180.00 return
Why - Worst QB in the NFL.

Miami, under 7 wins
-130 Odds,       $90 bet
$69.30 profit      $159.30 return
Why - Tannehill? 7 wins? Really??

Minnesota, over 5.5 wins
-125 Odds,        $40 bet
$32.00 profit        $72.00 return
Why - Never underestimate the Vikings.

New England, over 12 wins
-115 Odds,        $80 bet
$69.60 profit,        $149.60 return
Why - They're going 19-0.

NY Jets, under 9 wins
+120 Odds,       $60 bet
$72.00 profit,        $132.00 return
Why - Hype doesn't lead to wins.

Oakland, under 7 wins
-130 Odds,        $80 bet
$61.60 profit,       $141.60 return
Why - Worst team in the league.

Pittsburgh, over 10 wins
-115 Odds,       $50 bet
$43.50 profit,         $93.50 return
Why - Consistency, great at home, weak division.

San Francisco, under 10 wins
-120 Odds,     $70 bet
$58.10 profit,      $128.10 return
Why - Mostly Alex Smith.

Seattle, under 7.5 wins
+120 Odds,      $100 bet
$120.00 profit,     $220.00 return
Why - 8 wins? Really?   And I get Plus odds for this???

Tennessee, under 7.5 wins
+120 Odds,     $60 bet
$72.00 profit,   $132.00 return
Why - Defense lost its best player.

Washington, under 6.5 wins
-140 Odds,   $30 bet
$21.30 profit,   $51.30 return
Why - Tough division, rookie QB.

PROP BETS:

Offensive Rookie of the Year, Andrew Luck
+150 Odds,        $50 bet
$75.00 profit,     $125.00 return
Why - As I mentioned, he's going to be awesome. Offensive ROY is a three-man race between Luck, RG3 and Richardson, and Luck has the best chance to stay healthy. RG3 is the favorite, of course, with even Odds.

Defensive Rookie of the Year, Dont'a Hightower (Patriots)
+750 Odds,      $50 bet
$375.00 profit,     $425.00 return
Why - A longshot, obviously, but a freak talent.

Defensive Player of the Year, Melvin Ingram (Chargers)
+1350 Odds,     $20 bet
$270.00 profit,     $290.00 return
Why - A lot of sacks can create a D-ROY, and he can get a lot of sacks.

 Defensive Player of the Year, Stephon Gilmore (Bills)
+1125 Odds,     $20 bet
$225.00 profit,    $245.00 return
Why - Chance for a lot of INTs behind that great pass rush.

Aaron Rodgers +3 passing TDs more than Matt Stafford, regular season only
-120 Odds,     $75 bet
$62.47 profit,    $137.47 return
Why - Mostly because of the Madden Curse. Also, common sense.

Jay Cutler +1 passing TDs more than Michael Vick, regular season only
-115 Odds,    $100 bet
$86.90 profit,    $186.90 return
Why - Easy money.  Vick misses at least 3 or 4 games.

Andrew Luck +2.5 passing TDs more than Robert Griffin, regular season only
-105 Odds,    $100 bet
$95.20 profit,   $195.20 return
Why - RG3 will be running too much near the goal line.

Detroit Lions team, under 18.5 interceptions
-110 Odds,    $50 bet
$45.45 profit,     $95.45 return
Why - Just not any ballhawks in the secondary.

Colts win AFC South
+1700 Odds,    $25 bet
$425.00 profit,   $450 return
Why - One big injury to Schaub and the division is up for grabs.

Broncos win AFC West
+155 Odds,    $50 bet
$77.50 profit,    $127.50 return
Why - Pretty sold on Peyton, and down on San Diego.

Steelers win AFC North
-120 Odds,   $50 bet
$41.50 profit,    $91.50 return
Why - Mostly because of Suggs' injury.

Tom Brady, most passing yards, regular season
+350 Odds,    $20 bet
$70 profit,     $90 return
Why - Tough field here, but I like everything about the Pat's offense.


Tony Romo, most passing yards, regular season
+1150 Odds,   $20 bet
$230 profit,    $250 return
Why - A flier based on upside.

Patriots win AFC Championship
+150 Odds,    $75 bet
$112.50 profit,   $187.50 return
Why - As you can see, I'm all in on New England.

Bills win AFC Championship
+2500 Odds,   $20 bet
$500 profit,    $520 return
Why - Putting imaginary money where my mouth is.

Cowboys win NFC Championship
+1200 Odds,    $25 bet
$300 profit,    $325 return
Why - Dare I say they are underrated going into this year?

Brandon Marshall, most receiving yards, regular season
+1500 Odds,   $25 bet
$375 profit,    $400 return
Why - With Calvin's Curse and the Pats/Saints/Pack spreading the ball around so well, I think Marshall will be right near the top along with Fitz and Andre.  Wouldn't be my top choice against even odds, but +1500 is a good bargain.

Tim Tebow, total rushing TDs,  over 4.5
-115 Odds,    $50 bet
$43.50 profit,    $93.50 return
Why - I expect he'll be the Jets' goal-line back, and I think he probably starts at least a few games. This is easy money. My guess would be 7 or 8 rushing TDs.


So those are my 18 prop bets and 20 team bets.  $2,065 fake dollars on the line. I'll check back after week 17 and see how I did.   My guess is I end up with somewhere around $200 in profit ...


A few bets that I'm not making:

Calvin Johnson misses at least 1 game due to injury.
Yes  (-125 Odds)
No  (-105 Odds)

This couldn't be easier money. Even without the Curse, I would take the no.  I'd be willing to put $105 down right now and collect my $100 earnings within about 4 weeks of the season. Good thing I don't live near a casino.

Lions, over/under 9.5 wins
Over (+105)
Under (-135)

Leaning towards the over but don't feel great about it.  Too many weaknesses on this roster - the secondary, the running backs, the OLBs, the offensive line, intangibles, leadership, coaching ... also, several of the 10 games we won in 2011 involved a lot of luck.   I think we can win 10 or 11, maybe 12 games, but it's not going to be easy money until we address the weaknesses on the roster, instead of ignoring them.


GO LIONS.
And Pats.



64 comments:

  1. I think you meant that you would have taken "Yes" on Calvin Johnson missing a game.

    Here's a couple of questions - if you win all your bets, whats your projected fake haul? What the projected haul of Anti-Dave-Morgan (who took the opposite of all your bets) and then goes on to win them all? Because I don't like much of your reasoning, and I would probably take Anti-Dave-Morgan's side.

    ReplyDelete
  2. For example, I don't understand why you're up on Cutler and Marshall, but down on the bears. Don't get me wrong - I think the bears are getting inflated quite a bit.

    I also wouldn't ever bet on a team to get to 13 wins. How many times has that happened two years in a row? And the rate on that bet sucks... -115? Really? People are taking that line?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Youre right about Calvin ... my bad.

    It's impossible to win all of them, because some such as D-ROY overlap ... But for the team over/unders, if I were 20 for 20, net profit would be $1,112... and if I win all the prop bets using Hightower, Brady, & Pats, the total would be +$2185. So total - about $3,300.

    If I had bet all the opposites, the odds would have been different so I don't know how much, but it would probably have been pretty similar, maybe slightly more.

    I'm high on Marshall, not Cutler, and only statistically speaking. I only took Cutler over Vick cuz Vick gets hurt every year. I like Marshall because he's the only real receiver on Chicago.

    Mostly, I took the under on the Bears cuz 9.5 is ridiculous and their defense is overrated and cuz their worthless d-line coach once went 0-16 ... but if it were 8.5 I might have taken the over or at least not bet at all.

    I know it's unorthodox and risky to take 12+ wins, but I have a feeling neither the Pats or Packers are losing until the Super Bowl.

    Since 2003, Brady has won 12+ games 6 times and not done it 2 times.

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