Sunday, August 5, 2012

NFL Odds

Last year, I picked each team's over/under and assigned each pick with a level of confidence.  Although I ended up at .500 with 14 wins and 14 loses (and a few abstains), my overall confidence votes favored slightly on the winning side. This year, I decided to switch it up a little and limit the number of over/under predictions to the 20 teams I felt most convinced about, while using updated Vegas odds and making imaginary bets that reflect my confidence in the pick and in the odds.  (There are various sites that show various odds, but I found these at the Bovada Sportsbook, which seems to be reputable.)

I also went ahead and made some 'Prop' bets, for a total of 38 bets for the 2012 regular season, and a total (pretend) wager of $2,065.

Here you go:

Arizona, under 7 wins            
-150 Odds             $40 bet          
$26.80 profit           $66.80 return
Why - Tough schedule, bad QB.

Note -
Odds of -150 means if you bet $150, you get $100 back.
Odds of +150 means if you bet $100, you get $150 back.

Baltimore, under 10 wins      
-130 Odds             $40 bet        
$30.80 profit            $70.80 return
Why - Suggs' injury.

Buffalo, over 8 wins              
EVEN Odds          $50 bet          
$50.00 profit            $100.00 return
Why - This is their year.

Chicago, under 9.5 wins        
-130 Odds            $60 bet          
$46.20 profit           $106.20 return
Why - 9.5 is way too high. Defense is declining.

Cincinnati, under 8 wins        
-110 Odds             $70 bet        
$63.70 profit            $133.70 return
Why - They overachieved last year. Also, Dalton has red hair.

Dallas, over 8.5 wins              
-140 Odds           $50 bet          
$35.50 profit           $85.50 return
-Turned their biggest weakness (CB) into a strength.

Denver, over 9 wins              
-120 Odds             $50 bet          
$41.50 profit           $91.50 return
Why - Pretty sold on Peyton.

Green Bay, over 12 wins        
-115 Odds            $70 bet        
$60.90 profit          $130.90 return
Why - They won 15 last year.

Indy, over 5 wins                    
-125 Odds            $60 bet          
$48.00 profit          $108.00 return
Why - Andrew Luck is going to be awesome.

Jacksonville, under 5.5 wins    
EVEN Odds         $90 bet          
$90.00 profit          $180.00 return
Why - Worst QB in the NFL.

Miami, under 7 wins
-130 Odds,       $90 bet
$69.30 profit      $159.30 return
Why - Tannehill? 7 wins? Really??

Minnesota, over 5.5 wins
-125 Odds,        $40 bet
$32.00 profit        $72.00 return
Why - Never underestimate the Vikings.

New England, over 12 wins
-115 Odds,        $80 bet
$69.60 profit,        $149.60 return
Why - They're going 19-0.

NY Jets, under 9 wins
+120 Odds,       $60 bet
$72.00 profit,        $132.00 return
Why - Hype doesn't lead to wins.

Oakland, under 7 wins
-130 Odds,        $80 bet
$61.60 profit,       $141.60 return
Why - Worst team in the league.

Pittsburgh, over 10 wins
-115 Odds,       $50 bet
$43.50 profit,         $93.50 return
Why - Consistency, great at home, weak division.

San Francisco, under 10 wins
-120 Odds,     $70 bet
$58.10 profit,      $128.10 return
Why - Mostly Alex Smith.

Seattle, under 7.5 wins
+120 Odds,      $100 bet
$120.00 profit,     $220.00 return
Why - 8 wins? Really?   And I get Plus odds for this???

Tennessee, under 7.5 wins
+120 Odds,     $60 bet
$72.00 profit,   $132.00 return
Why - Defense lost its best player.

Washington, under 6.5 wins
-140 Odds,   $30 bet
$21.30 profit,   $51.30 return
Why - Tough division, rookie QB.


Offensive Rookie of the Year, Andrew Luck
+150 Odds,        $50 bet
$75.00 profit,     $125.00 return
Why - As I mentioned, he's going to be awesome. Offensive ROY is a three-man race between Luck, RG3 and Richardson, and Luck has the best chance to stay healthy. RG3 is the favorite, of course, with even Odds.

Defensive Rookie of the Year, Dont'a Hightower (Patriots)
+750 Odds,      $50 bet
$375.00 profit,     $425.00 return
Why - A longshot, obviously, but a freak talent.

Defensive Player of the Year, Melvin Ingram (Chargers)
+1350 Odds,     $20 bet
$270.00 profit,     $290.00 return
Why - A lot of sacks can create a D-ROY, and he can get a lot of sacks.

 Defensive Player of the Year, Stephon Gilmore (Bills)
+1125 Odds,     $20 bet
$225.00 profit,    $245.00 return
Why - Chance for a lot of INTs behind that great pass rush.

Aaron Rodgers +3 passing TDs more than Matt Stafford, regular season only
-120 Odds,     $75 bet
$62.47 profit,    $137.47 return
Why - Mostly because of the Madden Curse. Also, common sense.

Jay Cutler +1 passing TDs more than Michael Vick, regular season only
-115 Odds,    $100 bet
$86.90 profit,    $186.90 return
Why - Easy money.  Vick misses at least 3 or 4 games.

Andrew Luck +2.5 passing TDs more than Robert Griffin, regular season only
-105 Odds,    $100 bet
$95.20 profit,   $195.20 return
Why - RG3 will be running too much near the goal line.

Detroit Lions team, under 18.5 interceptions
-110 Odds,    $50 bet
$45.45 profit,     $95.45 return
Why - Just not any ballhawks in the secondary.

Colts win AFC South
+1700 Odds,    $25 bet
$425.00 profit,   $450 return
Why - One big injury to Schaub and the division is up for grabs.

Broncos win AFC West
+155 Odds,    $50 bet
$77.50 profit,    $127.50 return
Why - Pretty sold on Peyton, and down on San Diego.

Steelers win AFC North
-120 Odds,   $50 bet
$41.50 profit,    $91.50 return
Why - Mostly because of Suggs' injury.

Tom Brady, most passing yards, regular season
+350 Odds,    $20 bet
$70 profit,     $90 return
Why - Tough field here, but I like everything about the Pat's offense.

Tony Romo, most passing yards, regular season
+1150 Odds,   $20 bet
$230 profit,    $250 return
Why - A flier based on upside.

Patriots win AFC Championship
+150 Odds,    $75 bet
$112.50 profit,   $187.50 return
Why - As you can see, I'm all in on New England.

Bills win AFC Championship
+2500 Odds,   $20 bet
$500 profit,    $520 return
Why - Putting imaginary money where my mouth is.

Cowboys win NFC Championship
+1200 Odds,    $25 bet
$300 profit,    $325 return
Why - Dare I say they are underrated going into this year?

Brandon Marshall, most receiving yards, regular season
+1500 Odds,   $25 bet
$375 profit,    $400 return
Why - With Calvin's Curse and the Pats/Saints/Pack spreading the ball around so well, I think Marshall will be right near the top along with Fitz and Andre.  Wouldn't be my top choice against even odds, but +1500 is a good bargain.

Tim Tebow, total rushing TDs,  over 4.5
-115 Odds,    $50 bet
$43.50 profit,    $93.50 return
Why - I expect he'll be the Jets' goal-line back, and I think he probably starts at least a few games. This is easy money. My guess would be 7 or 8 rushing TDs.

So those are my 18 prop bets and 20 team bets.  $2,065 fake dollars on the line. I'll check back after week 17 and see how I did.   My guess is I end up with somewhere around $200 in profit ...

A few bets that I'm not making:

Calvin Johnson misses at least 1 game due to injury.
Yes  (-125 Odds)
No  (-105 Odds)

This couldn't be easier money. Even without the Curse, I would take the no.  I'd be willing to put $105 down right now and collect my $100 earnings within about 4 weeks of the season. Good thing I don't live near a casino.

Lions, over/under 9.5 wins
Over (+105)
Under (-135)

Leaning towards the over but don't feel great about it.  Too many weaknesses on this roster - the secondary, the running backs, the OLBs, the offensive line, intangibles, leadership, coaching ... also, several of the 10 games we won in 2011 involved a lot of luck.   I think we can win 10 or 11, maybe 12 games, but it's not going to be easy money until we address the weaknesses on the roster, instead of ignoring them.

And Pats.


  1. I think you meant that you would have taken "Yes" on Calvin Johnson missing a game.

    Here's a couple of questions - if you win all your bets, whats your projected fake haul? What the projected haul of Anti-Dave-Morgan (who took the opposite of all your bets) and then goes on to win them all? Because I don't like much of your reasoning, and I would probably take Anti-Dave-Morgan's side.

  2. For example, I don't understand why you're up on Cutler and Marshall, but down on the bears. Don't get me wrong - I think the bears are getting inflated quite a bit.

    I also wouldn't ever bet on a team to get to 13 wins. How many times has that happened two years in a row? And the rate on that bet sucks... -115? Really? People are taking that line?

  3. Youre right about Calvin ... my bad.

    It's impossible to win all of them, because some such as D-ROY overlap ... But for the team over/unders, if I were 20 for 20, net profit would be $1,112... and if I win all the prop bets using Hightower, Brady, & Pats, the total would be +$2185. So total - about $3,300.

    If I had bet all the opposites, the odds would have been different so I don't know how much, but it would probably have been pretty similar, maybe slightly more.

    I'm high on Marshall, not Cutler, and only statistically speaking. I only took Cutler over Vick cuz Vick gets hurt every year. I like Marshall because he's the only real receiver on Chicago.

    Mostly, I took the under on the Bears cuz 9.5 is ridiculous and their defense is overrated and cuz their worthless d-line coach once went 0-16 ... but if it were 8.5 I might have taken the over or at least not bet at all.

    I know it's unorthodox and risky to take 12+ wins, but I have a feeling neither the Pats or Packers are losing until the Super Bowl.

    Since 2003, Brady has won 12+ games 6 times and not done it 2 times.

  4. It's really a nice and useful piece of info. I'm
    satisfied that you just shared this useful info with us.
    Please stay us up to date like this. Thank you
    for sharing.

    My page オークリー アウトレット

  5. I absolutely love your blog and find the majority of your post's to be just what I'm looking for.
    Does one offer guest writers to write content to suit your needs?

    I wouldn't mind writing a post or elaborating on a few of the subjects you write concerning here. Again, awesome website!

    Feel free to visit my website ::

  6. It's actually a great and helpful piece of information. I'm happy that you
    simply shared this helpful information with us. Please stay
    us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.

    My web page: オークリー ゴーグル

  7. Why visitors still use to read news papers when in this technological globe the whole thing is presented on

    Also visit my blog :: レイバンサングラス

  8. Nice post. I was checking constantly this blog and I'm impressed! Very helpful info particularly the last part :) I care for such info much. I was looking for this particular info for a long time. Thank you and good luck.

    Take a look at my web site レイバンメガネ

  9. It's an amazing piece of writing in favor of all the online viewers; they will get benefit from it I am sure.

    Also visit my webpage :: レイバンサングラス

  10. These are really wonderful ideas in about blogging.

    You have touched some pleasant points here. Any way keep up wrinting.

    Feel free to visit my web-site: オークリー サングラス

  11. Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thank you, However I am going
    through difficulties with your RSS. I don't understand the reason why I am unable to join it. Is there anyone else having the same RSS problems? Anyone who knows the solution can you kindly respond? Thanx!!

    my site; レイバン 偽物

  12. I visit daily a few web sites and sites to read articles,
    but this weblog presents feature based articles.

    Here is my blog post; 激安オークリー

  13. Good day! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be okay. I'm definitely enjoying your blog and look
    forward to new posts.

    Also visit my web site: レイバンメガネ

  14. Great beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend your website, how can i subscribe for a
    blog website? The account aided me a appropriate deal.

    I had been tiny bit familiar of this your broadcast provided
    brilliant clear idea

    Feel free to surf to my web blog :: オークリーメガネ

  15. It's a shame you don't have a donate button! I'd most certainly donate to this brilliant blog! I guess for now i'll settle
    for bookmarking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account.
    I look forward to new updates and will share this blog with my
    Facebook group. Talk soon!

    Look at my web page

  16. It's remarkable to pay a visit this website and reading the views of all mates regarding this piece of writing, while I am also eager of getting knowledge.

    Feel free to visit my homepage; レイバンサングラス

  17. Thank you for the good writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it.

    Look advanced to more added agreeable from you! By the way, how could we communicate?

    Feel free to surf to my site - 激安オークリー

  18. This is my first time pay a quick visit at here and i am in fact happy to read all at alone place.

    Feel free to surf to my blog post オークリー ゴーグル

  19. Hello just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
    The words in your article seem to be running off the screen in Internet explorer.
    I'm not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I thought I'd post to let you know.
    The style and design look great though! Hope you get the
    problem solved soon. Cheers

    Stop by my web-site - レイバンサングラス

  20. Heya i'm for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It really useful & it helped me out much. I hope to give something back and aid others like you aided me.

    Feel free to visit my web site レイバン ゴーグル

  21. It's going to be finish of mine day, however before ending I am reading this fantastic article to improve my know-how.

    Also visit my web site; オークリー激安

  22. This page truly has all of the information and facts I needed concerning this subject and didn't know who to ask.

    Also visit my web blog オークリー

  23. Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your post seem to be running off the screen in Chrome.

    I'm not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I figured I'd post to let you know.
    The design look great though! Hope you get the issue solved
    soon. Kudos

    Take a look at my site; レイバン

  24. Cool blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere?
    A design like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make
    my blog stand out. Please let me know where you got
    your theme. Many thanks

    Also visit my page; レイバンメガネ

  25. It's truly a nice and helpful piece of info. I'm happy that you simply shared this helpful info with us.
    Please stay us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

    Visit my blog; エアジョーダン

  26. Thanks for sharing your thoughts about モンスター イヤホン 激安.

    Visit my web site :: monster beats

  27. I got this web site from my buddy who shared with me about this web site and now this
    time I am browsing this web page and reading very informative articles here.

    My site -

  28. Thanks , I have recently been looking for info about this topic
    for ages and yours is the best I've discovered till now. However, what about the conclusion? Are you sure about the supply?

    Also visit my site :: レイバンサングラス

  29. Greetings! Very useful advice in this particular article!

    It's the little changes that will make the largest changes. Many thanks for sharing!

    My weblog ... オークリー

  30. Hi i am kavin, its my first occasion to commenting anywhere, when i read this
    article i thought i could also make comment due to this sensible piece of writing.

    Feel free to surf to my web page:

  31. You actually make it seem so easy with your presentation
    but I find this topic to be really something that I think I would
    never understand. It seems too complicated and extremely broad for me.
    I'm looking forward for your next post, I'll try to get
    the hang of it!

    Check out my page; monster ヘッドホン

  32. Admiring the commitment you put into your website and detailed information you provide.
    It's nice to come across a blog every once in a while that isn't the
    same outdated rehashed information. Wonderful read! I've saved your site and I'm including your
    RSS feeds to my Google account.

    Here is my blog;

  33. Hi Dear, are you genuinely visiting this site daily,
    if so then you will without doubt get good experience.

    Here is my page ... monster ヘッドホン

  34. I am curious to find out what blog system you're using? I'm having some minor
    security problems with my latest website and I'd like to find something more secure. Do you have any recommendations?

    my web blog ジョーダン 靴

  35. I've been surfing online greater than three hours nowadays, but I by no means found any interesting article like yours. It is beautiful worth enough for me. In my opinion, if all webmasters and bloggers made good content material as you did, the web will be a lot more useful than ever before.

    Check out my homepage :: モンスター ヘッドホン

  36. Having read this I thought it was really informative.

    I appreciate you taking the time and energy to put this informative article together.
    I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and commenting.
    But so what, it was still worthwhile!

    Have a look at my homepage ルブタン シューズ

  37. It's an awesome post for all the web users; they will take benefit from it I am sure.

    my web site :: クリスチャンルブタン

  38. This is my first time go to see at here and i am in fact impressed to read everthing at
    single place.

    Here is my site ... ルブタン

  39. Definitely believe that which you said. Your favorite justification
    seemed to be on the internet the simplest thing to
    be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get irked while people consider worries that
    they plainly don't know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people can take a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

    my site - ルブタン 店舗

  40. Howdy! Someone in my Myspace group shared this site with us so I came to check it out.
    I'm definitely enjoying the information. I'm bookmarking and will be tweeting
    this to my followers! Outstanding blog and fantastic design and style.

    Also visit my webpage: クリスチャンルブタン

  41. I usually do not leave a response, however I read a lot of remarks here "NFL Odds".
    I do have a couple of questions for you if it's okay. Could it be only me or does it look like a few of these responses come across as if they are coming from brain dead people? :-P And, if you are writing on additional places, I would like to keep up with everything new you have to post. Could you make a list of the complete urls of all your shared sites like your linkedin profile, Facebook page or twitter feed?

    Feel free to surf to my page :: ジョーダン

  42. An interesting discussion is worth comment. I think that you
    should write more about this topic, it may not be
    a taboo subject but generally people don't talk about these topics. To the next! All the best!!

    Here is my blog post ... ルブタン

  43. Hey there, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues.
    When I look at your blog site in Firefox, it looks fine but when opening
    in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.
    I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, superb blog!

    Here is my web site ... モンスター ヘッドホン

  44. Asking questions are truly nice thing if you are not understanding something totally,
    but this article presents good understanding yet.

    Also visit my site; ジョーダン

  45. I am no longer certain where you're getting your info, but great topic. I must spend a while studying more or working out more. Thank you for magnificent info I used to be looking for this info for my mission.

    my webpage :: monster ヘッドホン

  46. Hi to every one, it's really a pleasant for me to go to see this website, it contains precious Information.

    Feel free to visit my homepage ... アバクロンビーフィッチジャケット

  47. Hey there! This post couldn't be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my old room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this post to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!

    Visit my web page :: プラダバッグ

  48. I am sure this piece of writing has touched all the internet visitors, its really really
    nice article on building up new blog.

    Here is my blog post ... モンスタービーツ

  49. This design is steller! You certainly know how to keep a reader amused.

    Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my
    own blog (well, almost...HaHa!) Great job. I really loved what you had to say, and more than that, how you
    presented it. Too cool!

    My web page :: プラダ トートバッグ

  50. We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community.
    Your web site provided us with valuable information
    to work on. You've done an impressive job and our whole community will be grateful to you.

    Stop by my blog post ... レイバン

  51. Howdy! I realize this is somewhat off-topic but I needed to ask.
    Does running a well-established blog such as yours take a large amount of work?
    I am completely new to blogging however I do write in my diary every
    day. I'd like to start a blog so I will be able to share my personal experience and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any ideas or tips for new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

    Also visit my website:

  52. wonderful publish, very informative. I'm wondering why the other experts of this sector do not understand this. You should proceed your writing. I'm confident, you have a
    huge readers' base already!

    Feel free to surf to my web page;

  53. I like the helpful information you provide in your articles.

    I will bookmark your blog and check again here regularly.

    I'm quite certain I'll learn lots of new stuff right here!
    Good luck for the next!

    my weblog:

  54. Good day! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be ok. I'm undoubtedly enjoying your blog and look forward to
    new updates.

    Here is my web blog: monster beats

  55. Pretty! This was an incredibly wonderful article. Thanks for
    providing these details.

    Look at my web-site - レイバンメガネ

  56. Greetings, I believe your website could be having internet browser compatibility problems.
    Whenever I look at your website in Safari, it looks
    fine but when opening in I.E., it has some overlapping issues.
    I simply wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that,
    excellent website!

    Visit my site -

  57. Hi! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog
    platform are you using for this website? I'm getting sick and tired of Wordpress because I've had issues with hackers and I'm looking at options for another platform. I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

    Here is my site ルイヴィトンアウトレット

  58. Hi there! I could have sworn I've visited this site before but after looking at a few of the articles I realized it's new to me.
    Anyways, I'm certainly pleased I stumbled upon it and I'll be bookmarking it
    and checking back regularly!

    Review my site:

  59. I think the admin of this site is truly working hard in support of his website, for the reason that here every
    data is quality based stuff.

    Have a look at my site; シャネル アウトレット

  60. I quite like reading through a post that will make people think.
    Also, thank you for allowing me to comment!

    Review my web-site gucci バッグ

  61. I savor, lead to I discovered just what I used to be looking
    for. You have ended my 4 day lengthy hunt!
    God Bless you man. Have a nice day. Bye

    Review my blog post :: エアジョーダン

  62. Have you ever thought about creating an e-book or
    guest authoring on other sites? I have a blog based on the same ideas you
    discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information.

    I know my readers would enjoy your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an email.

    my website:

  63. Hey there! Would you mind if I share your blog with my twitter group?
    There's a lot of people that I think would really enjoy your content. Please let me know. Cheers

    Also visit my web page ... アバクロンビーフィッチパーカー

  64. After I initially commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when
    new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I get four
    emails with the same comment. There has to be a way you
    can remove me from that service? Thanks!

    Here is my web page ... air jordan