Is Anyone Excited About The Harbaugh Bowl?

I'm not excited about the Harbaugh Bowl.  In fact, I couldn't care less.

I don't like either team, I don't like any players on either team, and I don't like either coach.  I also don't passionately dislike either team or either coach.  I respect both teams, and their players.  They are good teams.  Not amazing teams.  Not elite.  Not the best teams in their respective conferences.  But because of some lucky breaks and some weird plays, one of the Harbaughs will be a champion, and the other will pretend to be happy for him.

I still think the 3 best teams in the NFL are New England, Denver, and Green Bay, and I would put Seattle narrowly ahead of San Fran for #4.  I'm not convinced Baltimore is a top 10 team, given their injuries and inconsistency.  But alas, Denver's Rahim Moore made one of the worst plays in NFL history, and Baltimore is in the Super Bowl, and now Ray Lewis's legacy is being way overstated.

Now, two of the least likable Hall of Famers of our generation, Lewis and Randy Moss, will square off, and one of them will weep and rejoice and retire a champion.

It's been that kind of season. The kind that makes you want to gag.

It's fitting that this unpredictable, somewhat deplorable season, full of replacement refs, concussions, bounties, PEDs, everyone-hating-the-Commissioner, a botched hail mary call that screwed up the entire playoff scenario, and all sorts of other unpleasantries will end with a generally unlikable team hoisting the Lombardi.

Of course, this season had its high points.  Many of them, actually.  AP and Calvin had two of the greatest seasons ever for their positions, Peyton was incredible for a new team with a new neck, Luck and Griffin (and Russell Wilson) highlighted one of the best rookie classes ever, 3 pass rushing phenoms from the 2011 draft (Von Miller, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt) made runs at the sack record, and we got to enjoy Cutler, Roethlisberger and Eli all missing the playoffs. Despite the Lions' horrendous year and all the aforementioned gadflies, it really was a fantastic football season.

It's been a weird postseason in a lot of ways, with Hall of Fame quarterbacks left in the dust along the way.  Remarkably, I now sit at 129-129-11 against the spread, with one game to go.  One game to determine whether I'm above .500 or below .500 for the entire season.  And fittingly, it's a game I can't seem to muster up any interest in.

There are plenty of storylines aside from the Harbaughs and Ray Lewis.  There's the question of Flacco becoming ''elite," (excuse me while I puke and stab a voodoo doll of Ron Jaworski), there's Colin Kaepernick exploding from complete unknown to household name superstar in 2 months, there's the best middle linebacker of the past 5 years (Patrick Willis) against the best middle linebacker of the past 25 years (Lewis) in a game that makes everyone wonder if maybe middle linebacker isn't a more important position than we thought, and there's a bunch of utterly unlikable guys like Michael Crabtree and Terrell Suggs just being douches that nobody likes.   There's also Alex Smith, the nice guy who got benched for the phenom, and needs to keep being nice in order to cash in for a major payday in a few months.

Like I said, I don't like either team.  I'm inclined to cheer for San Fran, for a few reasons.
1. I kind of like Justin Smith.  Great player, totally dominant, doesn't draw attention to himself.
2. Joe Staley went to Rockford High School. That's cool I guess.
3. I mildly dislike Kaepernick a little less than I mildly dislike Flacco.  
4. I am so sick of Jim Schwartz that I've actually come to appreciate Jim Harbaugh's handshake antics.
5. I've always had a soft spot for Vernon Davis, even though by all observational accounts he's a jerk.
6. San Fran is the better team, and I like when the better team wins the Super Bowl.

On the flip side, I'd like to see Baltimore win, because I know the Steelers are cheering for San Fran.

The line is set at San Fran by 4.5, which I think is too high.  Because of the coaching matchup and the defensive nature of both teams, I think points will be tough to come by, and scores will be quickly answered.  San Fran might be able to pull away if Kaepernick plays mistake-free, but I don't see that happening.  I see something like 13-10 at halftime, millions of bored fans losing interest, and then a crazy second half that features six touchdowns and the final is 37-34 in OT.  With San Fran coming out on top.



Switching gears, it's almost time to talk about the NFL Draft.   There's been a lot of shuffling of coaches and initially I was going to write a lengthy disposition about that.  But I lost interest when all the hirings were no-names who are bound to be fired in 2 years.  Only two new coaches are interesting to me:  Chip Kelly, who takes his wildly innovative offensive scheme to Philadelphia, and Andy Reid, who inherits a pretty talented roster and the #1 overall pick in Kansas City.  All the other 6 new coaches should be considered dead ducks until their teams start winning.

I'm a little surprised we didn't see more rumors about teams chasing Gruden, Cowher or Saban.  Maybe that will happen next offseason.  Or maybe those guys are happy where they are.  Either way, we should have another 8 coaches fired next December, so this fun little process can happen all over again.

As far as the draft goes, we're still a long way from clarity.  It looked like Geno Smith (QB from West Virginia) would be the #1 pick, but a five-game losing streak really sunk his chances and left a lot of people wondering if he can win in the NFL.  Matt Barkley (USC's QB) started the year as the presumptive favorite for the top pick, and now he might have fallen out of the 1st round completely with a shoulder injury and a 6-loss season.

So who goes #1?  Amazingly, that decision will be totally up to this creep. 

My guess would be Luke Joeckel, the tackle from A&M.  It's probably between him and Geno at this point, and it will depend what the Chiefs can do to address the QB position.  Alex Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Flynn, and Tim Tebow will be their options.  Pretty slim pickings.  It actually wouldn't shock me if Reid stayed with Matt Cassel and waited until next year to find his quarterback.  Kind of like what Jim Harbaugh did with Alex Smith.  Just saying, it wouldn't shock me.

The next 5 or 6 picks could all be defense.  After Joeckel, there isn't really an elite offensive prospect in this class. No WR or RB that resembles a top 10 pick.  It all depends on where the QBs end up. With a myriad of teams in the top 10 needing to find their franchise quarterback, including Jacksonville (#2), Oakland (#3), Philly (#4), Cleveland (#6), Arizona (#7), Buffalo (#8), and the Jets (#9),  you could see some hideous reaches and some preposterous trades.  Geno and Barkley are very possible in the top 10.  Maybe NC State's Mike Glennon and Arkansas's Tyler Wilson as well.  Probably not Florida State's EJ Manuel, Oklahoma's Landry Jones, or Tennessee's Tyler Bray, but who knows.   All of those guys have 1st round potential, but could make bargains in the 2nd or even 3rd.

The Lions pick at #5, and now that Manti Te'o is out of the question, it will either be a defensive end or a cornerback.  There's only one cornerback that makes sense - Dee Milliner - who I still hope they'll pick.  But I think Schwart'z affinity for defensive lineman will lead them to take a DE.  It'll be justifiable, because Avril is on his way out the door, as is Lawrence Jackson.  I thought VandenBosch was done, but now that the Lions' have hired a coordinator who called KVB his "favorite player," my guess is we'll have to endure another season of the red-eyed monster being overmatched and ineffective.

The glaring, gaping, heinous hole in the secondary won't matter to Schwartz as much as it matters to me, and the Lions will choose their favorite pass rusher.  Someone fast enough to chase the QB but big enough to stop the run.  Many current mock drafts have them taking A&M's Damontre Moore or Florida State's Bjoren Werner, but Georgia's Jarvis Jones might also be an option.  Of those, none have blown me away on tape.  They are look like good players, with Werner probably the most NFL-ready. But none look as good as Dee Milliner.

I really think Milliner will be an immediate star in the NFL.  I think he'll make multiple Pro Bowls, he'll shut down elite receivers, and he might end up being the next Revis.  Unfortunately, I think he'll do that for a team that isn't the Lions.  A year from now, Detroit be stuck with a logjam of overpaid defensive linemen while trying to figure out who their next coach will be.

Go Tigers.  Go Harbaugh.

Championship Round picks

2-2 against the spread last week, 1-3 straight up.  Dreadful.

Now 3-5 ATS in the playoffs and 4-4 straight up.  It's good to have parity and equality in the playoffs, but it's nearly impossible to pick this friggin games.

That said, I think I was on the right side by picking Denver and Seattle last week, and both got robbed in the last minute thanks to uncharacteristically bad pass defense.  Rahim Moore chose a terrible time to show off his Louis Delmas impression and desecrate the legacies of both Peyton Manning and John Elway.  If he makes that play with even a shred of competence, we have Brady v. Manning at ages 35 and 36, which is a freaking dream come true, as opposed to Brady v. Flacco, which doesn't even seem fair.

Ravens (12-6) @ Patriots (13-4) 
Predicted Line: NE by 9.5
Actual Line: NE by 10

Almost everyone is taking the Patriots at home (10 point favorites), despite the fact that Gronk won't play and despite the fact that the last two games between these teams were decided by 3 points or less.

But New England is rolling, and Baltimore has been overrated all year long.  I like the Pats to get up big early and then show off their running game, dominating time of possession and turning this into a blowout.   34-10.

49ers (12-4-1) @ Falcons (14-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 5 

I've watched 10 quarters of Colin Kaepernick, and I'm already ready to move him above Rivers, Romo and Cam as a top 10 quarterback.  I'm very close to moving him above RG3 and maybe Eli.  The dude is incredible.

But, I still have Matt Ryan ranked at 5, a few spots above Kaep, and the Falcons are a disrespected home underdog, which is a good betting proposition.  75% of the betting public is taking the Niners -5, but I'm going the other way.  Too many points.   Niners win, 30-27.

That's all I got for now.   Go Lions.   I guess they won't be taking Manti Te'o after all.  

Round 2 picks

Abbreviated playoff picks, after a 1-3 wildcard round (3-1 straight up):

Ravens (11-6) @ Broncos (13-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 8.5
Actual Line: DEN by 10

Packers (12-5) @ 49ers (11-4-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 3

Seahawks (12-5) @ Falcons (13-3)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 3 

Texans (13-4) @ Patriots (12-4)
Predicted Line: NE by 10
Actual Line: NE by 10 

I'm taking the road teams in the NFC, and the Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the AFC.

Packers 27-23.
Seahawks 41-20.

Patriots 35-19.
Broncos 33-10.

That's it for now.  Go Lions.

Regular Season Wrap Up

Week 17:
9-7 ATS
8-8 straight up

Overall regular season:
125-123-11 (50.4%) ATS
157-98 (61.5%) straight up

Not great, but at least I ended up above .500.  Hopefully I can dominate the playoffs and get up to 51.5 by the Super Bowl.

Now let's look back to all those imaginary bets I made before the season began.   I missed many of them badly, missed a few by just a couple plays, and nailed a few other picks (the over on Indy and Minnesota, for example).  Here's the recap:

Arizona, under 7 wins
Correct, they went 5-11 after a 4-0 start
Bet $40, -150 Odds, $26.80 profit

Baltimore, under 10 wins
Push (meaning tie) 

Buffalo, over 8 wins
Incorrect, they were 6-10
Bet $50, lost $50

Chicago, under 9.5 wins
Incorrect, they barely eeked out 10-6 
Bet $60, lost $60

Cincinnati, under 8 wins
Incorrect, 10-6 somehow
Bet $70, lost $70

Dallas, over 8.5 wins
Incorrect, 8-8 
Bet $50, lost $50

Denver, over 9 wins
Correct, 13-3
Bet $50, -120 odds, $41.50 profit

Green Bay, over 12 wins
Incorrect, 11-5 
Bet $70, lost $70

Indy, over 5 wins
Correct, 11-5 
Bet $60, -125 odds, $48 profit

Jacksonville, under 5.5 wins
Correct, 2-14 
Bet $90, even odds, $90 profit

Miami, under 7 wins
Push

Minnesota, over 5.5 wins
Correct, 10-6 
Bet $40, -125 odds, $32 profit

New England, over 12 wins
Push

NY Jets, under 9 wins
Correct, 6-10.  Though Rex Ryan recently said it was the best 6-10 season ever played, and teams are already scared to play them next year.  
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit

Oakland, under 7 wins
Correct, 4-12.  Still baffled that this line was set at 7 wins.   
Bet $80, -130 odds, $61.60 profit

Pittsburgh, over 10 wins
Incorrect, 8-8.
Bet $50, lost $50

San Fran, under 10 wins
Incorrect, 11-4-1. 
Bet $70, lost $70

Seattle, under 7.5 wins
Incorrect, 11-5. 
Bet $100, lost $100

Tennessee, under 7.5 wins
Correct, 6-10
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit

Washington, under 6.5 wins
Incorrect, 10-6
Bet $30, lost $30

Total:    
8-9-3 record on picks 
Lost $106.10 

Now a review of the prop bets I made:

Hightower, Gilmore or Ingram to win D-ROY
Bet $90, going to lose $90

Rodgers +3 passing TDs more than Stafford
More like +19 passing TDs
Bet $75, -120 odds, $62.47 profit

Cutler +1 passing TDs more than Vick
19 compared to 12. Both guys sucked.
Bet $100, -115 odds, $86.90 profit

Luck +2.5 passing TDs more than Griffin
23 to 20.  Very close. But I win.
Bet $100, -105 odds, $95.20 profit

Lions team, under 18.5 interceptions
How about a measly 11?
Bet $50, -110 odds, $45.45 profit

Colts and Steelers win their divisions
Bet $75, lost $75
(But if Colts had won, which they almost did, I would have profited $425)

Broncos win division
Bet $50, +155 odds, $77.50 profit

Brady or Romo wins passing yards title
Bet $40, lost $40
Brees won for a 2nd straight year.

Marshall, most receiving yards
Bet $25, lost $25
The curse-breaking Megatron won. But Marshall was 3rd.

Tebow, over 4.5 rushing TDs
Bet $50, lost $50
I'm not even sure he had 4.5 rushing attempts.

Cowboys or Bills make Super Bowl
Bet $45, lost $45


Total on prop bets: 
Gained $42.50 

Total with props and over/unders: 
Lost $63.58 

With two yet to be determined:



Andrew Luck, Offensive Rookie of the Year
Going to be really close
Bet $50, potential profit $75


Patriots make Super Bowl
TBD, but I don't hate my chances.
Bet $75, potential profit $112.50

If Luck wins ROY and Pats make Super Bowl, I am up $123.92

If neither happens, I am down $188.58

If Luck wins ROY and Pats don't make Super Bowl (most likely scenario), I am down $113.58

....


So overall, not great.  Oh well.  Here are the Wildcard round picks:


Bengals (10-6) @ Texans (12-4)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4.5


Vikings (10-6) @ Packers (11-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 7
Actual Line: GB by 9


Colts (11-5) @ Ravens (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6
Actual Line: BAL by 6.5


Seahawks (11-5) @ Redskins (10-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3


What a freaking phenomenal slate of games.  Three rookie QBs, two undertalented overachievers (Colts and Bengals), and one Adrian Peterson.  Should be a great round of games.  I'll keep these picks brief:

I like Houston big; they have way more talent on both sides.  34-13.

Packers will win, but it'll be closer than 9.  Can't bet against AP right now.  27-23.

Balitmore has been overrated all year, but they get lucky (no pun intended) with their first round game.  Indy is the least talented roster in the playoffs by far.  Luck keeps it close though.  Ravens 30-26.

RG3 pulls off the shocker!  Seattle's defense is great, but Griffin's legs make the difference.  Skins 24-21 in a nail-biter.  



I'm going to hold off on NFL draft thoughts for a while.  Still 4 months to go, and somebody always comes out of no where at the combine.   I still like the Lions to get either Te'o or Milliner at pick #5, though a lot of people think they'll take a pass-rusher, which makes sense considering Avril and KVB are likely gone.  Still, the back 7 needs to be addressed.


Three months til Tigers season!   Stay tuned for my Tigers preview ....