My predictions for the 2013 NFL season. All spreads taken from Bovada prior to week 1.
Let's begin with the ten team over/unders that I feel most strongly about:
Atlanta Falcons
UNDER 10 wins
Why: Three good teams in their division, defense got a lot worse.
Bet: $20
Odds: -150
Baltimore Ravens
OVER 8.5 wins
Why: They have an easy schedule, an elite coach, and this line is 1.5 wins too low in overreaction to Ray Lewis's retirement. Their defense actually improved.
Bet: $40
Odds: -115
Cincinnati Bengals
UNDER 8.5 wins
Why: On what planet are the Bengals and Ravens considered equal????
Bet: $35
Odds: +130
Cleveland Browns
UNDER 6 wins
Why: Lack of talent, especially at quarterback.
Bet: $45
Odds: +145
Detroit Lions
UNDER 8 wins
Why: Offensive line, secondary, coaching, lack of depth everywhere, and Stafford's intangibles.
Bet: $25
Odds: EVEN
Green Bay Packers
OVER 10.5 wins
Why: Best QB in the league in his prime. All he has to do is stay healthy and they'll win 11 or more.
Bet: $40
Odds: -110
Jacksonville Jaguars
UNDER 5 wins
Why: Took the under (5.5) last year, and will keep doing it until they get rid of Gabbert. The guy is a joke.
Bet: $35
Odds: -130
New England Patriots
OVER 10.5 wins
Why: I have quite a bit of faith in Tom Brady.
Bet: $45
Odds: +120
New Orleans Saints
OVER 9 wins
Why: Ditto for Drew Brees.
Bet: $20
Odds: -150
Oakland Raiders
UNDER 5.5 wins
Why: Would bet the under at 2.5 wins, even despite these crazy odds.
Bet: $30
Odds: -200
And here are some team prop bets. These aren't necessarily indicative of what I think will actually happen (for example, Miami making the playoffs), but rather just based on whether or not I like the value presented by the odds.
Will Atlanta make the playoffs?
Pick: NO
Bet: $25
Odds: +135
Will Baltimore make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $20
Odds: -105
Will Indianapolis make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $30
Odds: +145
Will Miami make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $20
Odds: +200
Will New Orleans make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $30
Odds: -150
Will Oakland make the playoffs?
Pick: NO
Bet: $20
Odds: -2000
Will Tampa Bay make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $35
Odds: +275
Will Washington make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $35
Odds: +140
New Orleans wins the Super Bowl.
Bet: $20
Odds: +1800
Green Bay wins the Super Bowl.
Bet: $35
Odds: +1200
New England wins the Super Bowl.
Bet: $25
Odds: +1000
Indianapolis wins the AFC South.
Bet: $35
Odds: +240
Baltimore wins the AFC North.
Bet: $50
Odds: +225
Green Bay wins the NFC North.
Bet: $40
Odds: -140
New Orleans wins the NFC South.
Bet: $30
Odds: +170
St. Louis wins the NFC West.
Bet: $15
Odds: +500
Calgary Stampeders win the CFL Grey Cup.
Bet: $10
Odds: +300
Some player prop bets:
NFL MVP:
-Aaron Rodgers, $30, +650
-Andrew Luck, $15, +2500
-Cam Newton, $15, +3300
-Josh Freeman, $5, +7500
Most Passing yards:
-Matt Ryan, $10, +1200
-Andrew Luck, $20, +1800
Most Rushing yards:
-Jamaal Charles, $20, +1400
Offensive rookie of the year:
-Gio Bernard, $45, +800
Defensive rookie of the year:
-Dion Jordan, $10, +2000
-Honey Badger, $10, +1000
-Alec Ogeltree, $10, +1000
Now, some player over/unders. I'll do 1 for each NFL team, at $20 each, unless otherwise indicated. All of these have -115 odds.
Arizona -- Rashard Mendenhall, UNDER 750.5 rushing yards
Atlanta -- Osi Umenyiora, UNDER 8.5 sacks
*change this one to $40. No way this is happening.
Baltimore -- Ray Rice, OVER 1100 rushing yards
Buffalo -- Steve Johnson, OVER 6.5 receiving TDs
Carolina -- Greg Hardy, OVER 8 sacks. Way over. Make it $40.
Chicago -- Brandon Marshall, UNDER 102.5 receptions
Cincinnati -- Andy Dalton, OVER 15.5 interceptions
Cleveland -- Trent Richardson, OVER 9.5 rushing TDs
Dallas -- Tony Romo, OVER 4400 passing yards
Denver -- Wes Welker, UNDER 90.5 receptions
Detroit -- Calvin Johnson, OVER 1450 receiving yards, OVER 10 receiving TDs, and OVER 100.5 receptions. That's three OVERs for Calvin at $20 each.
Green Bay -- Aaron Rodgers, OVER 38.5 passing TDs
Houston -- JJ Watt, UNDER 15.5 sacks. That's way too ambitious. Make this one $40.
Indianapolis -- Andrew Luck, OVER 250 rushing yards
Jacksonville -- Blaine Gabbert, UNDER 10.5 games started as QB
Kansas City -- Dwayne Bowe, UNDER 1000 receiving yards
Miami -- Ryan Tannehill, OVER 14.5 interceptions
Minnesota -- Adrian Peterson, OVER 11.5 rushing TDs
New England -- Danny Amendola, UNDER 950 receiving yards
New Orleans -- Drew Brees, OVER 4700 passing yards
NY Giants -- Hakeem Nicks, OVER 5.5 receiving TDs
NY Jets -- Dee Milliner, OVER 2.5 interceptions
Oakland -- Denarius Moore, UNDER 750 receiving yards
Philadelphia -- Michael Vick, UNDER 3200 passing yards. Make it $40. Pretty sure he'll get hurt or benched.
Pittsburgh -- Ben Roethlisberger, OVER 12.5 interceptions. Let's also make this one $40.
San Diego -- Ryan Matthews, UNDER 900.5 rushing yards
San Francisco -- Colin Kaepernick, OVER 550 rushing yards
Seattle -- Marshawn Lynch, OVER 10 rushing TDs
St. Louis -- Tavon Austin, UNDER 75.5 receptions
Tampa Bay -- Doug Martin, UNDER 1200.5 rushing yards
Tennessee -- Jake Locker, OVER 13.5 interceptions
Washington -- Robert Griffin III, OVER 14.5 games started
Lastly, a few general prop bets about the season:
Who will be the first head coach fired during the 2013 season?
-Mike Munchak, $25, +500
(The Titans' early schedule is brutal; Munchak will be axed at 2-8)
Will any quarterback record 1000 or more rushing yards during 2013 season?
-YES, $35, +200
(Between Kaepernick, Newton, RG3 and Wilson, it could happen 4 times)
Will any team go 0-16 in the 2013 regular season?
-YES, $20, +2000
(Both the Raiders and Jaguars are strong contenders)
Who will have more sacks, Clay Matthews or Von Miller?
-Miller, $40, -135
Who will have more rushing yards, Ray Rice or CJ Spiller?
-Rice, $30, +155
Who will have more passing yards, Matt Ryan or Tony Romo?
-Ryan, $30, +115
Who will have more receiving yards, AJ Green or Andre Johnson?
-Green, $40, +105
That's it -- a total of 77 bets for a total of $2,000. Good thing it's not real money.
And just for the heck of it, let's put two hundred on the Tigers winning the World Series at +475.
Go Lions.
Atlanta Falcons
UNDER 10 wins
Why: Three good teams in their division, defense got a lot worse.
Bet: $20
Odds: -150
Baltimore Ravens
OVER 8.5 wins
Why: They have an easy schedule, an elite coach, and this line is 1.5 wins too low in overreaction to Ray Lewis's retirement. Their defense actually improved.
Bet: $40
Odds: -115
Cincinnati Bengals
UNDER 8.5 wins
Why: On what planet are the Bengals and Ravens considered equal????
Bet: $35
Odds: +130
Cleveland Browns
UNDER 6 wins
Why: Lack of talent, especially at quarterback.
Bet: $45
Odds: +145
Detroit Lions
UNDER 8 wins
Why: Offensive line, secondary, coaching, lack of depth everywhere, and Stafford's intangibles.
Bet: $25
Odds: EVEN
Green Bay Packers
OVER 10.5 wins
Why: Best QB in the league in his prime. All he has to do is stay healthy and they'll win 11 or more.
Bet: $40
Odds: -110
Jacksonville Jaguars
UNDER 5 wins
Why: Took the under (5.5) last year, and will keep doing it until they get rid of Gabbert. The guy is a joke.
Bet: $35
Odds: -130
New England Patriots
OVER 10.5 wins
Why: I have quite a bit of faith in Tom Brady.
Bet: $45
Odds: +120
New Orleans Saints
OVER 9 wins
Why: Ditto for Drew Brees.
Bet: $20
Odds: -150
Oakland Raiders
UNDER 5.5 wins
Why: Would bet the under at 2.5 wins, even despite these crazy odds.
Bet: $30
Odds: -200
And here are some team prop bets. These aren't necessarily indicative of what I think will actually happen (for example, Miami making the playoffs), but rather just based on whether or not I like the value presented by the odds.
Will Atlanta make the playoffs?
Pick: NO
Bet: $25
Odds: +135
Will Baltimore make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $20
Odds: -105
Will Indianapolis make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $30
Odds: +145
Will Miami make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $20
Odds: +200
Will New Orleans make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $30
Odds: -150
Will Oakland make the playoffs?
Pick: NO
Bet: $20
Odds: -2000
Will Tampa Bay make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $35
Odds: +275
Will Washington make the playoffs?
Pick: YES
Bet: $35
Odds: +140
New Orleans wins the Super Bowl.
Bet: $20
Odds: +1800
Green Bay wins the Super Bowl.
Bet: $35
Odds: +1200
New England wins the Super Bowl.
Bet: $25
Odds: +1000
Indianapolis wins the AFC South.
Bet: $35
Odds: +240
Baltimore wins the AFC North.
Bet: $50
Odds: +225
Green Bay wins the NFC North.
Bet: $40
Odds: -140
New Orleans wins the NFC South.
Bet: $30
Odds: +170
St. Louis wins the NFC West.
Bet: $15
Odds: +500
Calgary Stampeders win the CFL Grey Cup.
Bet: $10
Odds: +300
Some player prop bets:
NFL MVP:
-Aaron Rodgers, $30, +650
-Andrew Luck, $15, +2500
-Cam Newton, $15, +3300
-Josh Freeman, $5, +7500
Most Passing yards:
-Matt Ryan, $10, +1200
-Andrew Luck, $20, +1800
Most Rushing yards:
-Jamaal Charles, $20, +1400
Offensive rookie of the year:
-Gio Bernard, $45, +800
Defensive rookie of the year:
-Dion Jordan, $10, +2000
-Honey Badger, $10, +1000
-Alec Ogeltree, $10, +1000
Now, some player over/unders. I'll do 1 for each NFL team, at $20 each, unless otherwise indicated. All of these have -115 odds.
Arizona -- Rashard Mendenhall, UNDER 750.5 rushing yards
Atlanta -- Osi Umenyiora, UNDER 8.5 sacks
*change this one to $40. No way this is happening.
Baltimore -- Ray Rice, OVER 1100 rushing yards
Buffalo -- Steve Johnson, OVER 6.5 receiving TDs
Carolina -- Greg Hardy, OVER 8 sacks. Way over. Make it $40.
Chicago -- Brandon Marshall, UNDER 102.5 receptions
Cincinnati -- Andy Dalton, OVER 15.5 interceptions
Cleveland -- Trent Richardson, OVER 9.5 rushing TDs
Dallas -- Tony Romo, OVER 4400 passing yards
Denver -- Wes Welker, UNDER 90.5 receptions
Detroit -- Calvin Johnson, OVER 1450 receiving yards, OVER 10 receiving TDs, and OVER 100.5 receptions. That's three OVERs for Calvin at $20 each.
Green Bay -- Aaron Rodgers, OVER 38.5 passing TDs
Houston -- JJ Watt, UNDER 15.5 sacks. That's way too ambitious. Make this one $40.
Indianapolis -- Andrew Luck, OVER 250 rushing yards
Jacksonville -- Blaine Gabbert, UNDER 10.5 games started as QB
Kansas City -- Dwayne Bowe, UNDER 1000 receiving yards
Miami -- Ryan Tannehill, OVER 14.5 interceptions
Minnesota -- Adrian Peterson, OVER 11.5 rushing TDs
New England -- Danny Amendola, UNDER 950 receiving yards
New Orleans -- Drew Brees, OVER 4700 passing yards
NY Giants -- Hakeem Nicks, OVER 5.5 receiving TDs
NY Jets -- Dee Milliner, OVER 2.5 interceptions
Oakland -- Denarius Moore, UNDER 750 receiving yards
Philadelphia -- Michael Vick, UNDER 3200 passing yards. Make it $40. Pretty sure he'll get hurt or benched.
Pittsburgh -- Ben Roethlisberger, OVER 12.5 interceptions. Let's also make this one $40.
San Diego -- Ryan Matthews, UNDER 900.5 rushing yards
San Francisco -- Colin Kaepernick, OVER 550 rushing yards
Seattle -- Marshawn Lynch, OVER 10 rushing TDs
St. Louis -- Tavon Austin, UNDER 75.5 receptions
Tampa Bay -- Doug Martin, UNDER 1200.5 rushing yards
Tennessee -- Jake Locker, OVER 13.5 interceptions
Washington -- Robert Griffin III, OVER 14.5 games started
Lastly, a few general prop bets about the season:
Who will be the first head coach fired during the 2013 season?
-Mike Munchak, $25, +500
(The Titans' early schedule is brutal; Munchak will be axed at 2-8)
Will any quarterback record 1000 or more rushing yards during 2013 season?
-YES, $35, +200
(Between Kaepernick, Newton, RG3 and Wilson, it could happen 4 times)
Will any team go 0-16 in the 2013 regular season?
-YES, $20, +2000
(Both the Raiders and Jaguars are strong contenders)
Who will have more sacks, Clay Matthews or Von Miller?
-Miller, $40, -135
Who will have more rushing yards, Ray Rice or CJ Spiller?
-Rice, $30, +155
Who will have more passing yards, Matt Ryan or Tony Romo?
-Ryan, $30, +115
Who will have more receiving yards, AJ Green or Andre Johnson?
-Green, $40, +105
That's it -- a total of 77 bets for a total of $2,000. Good thing it's not real money.
And just for the heck of it, let's put two hundred on the Tigers winning the World Series at +475.
Go Lions.
I'm not writing in the same way this year, but here are two unders I would hypothetically take:
ReplyDeleteSeattle
Kansas City
Russell Wilson is Mark Sanchez 2.0. I don't know why everyone is picking them to win it all; it's such a small sample size! 7-9.
And I don't buy that KC gets a magical 8 wins better. I see 6-10.
Seattle's defense is pretty incredible .... I agree with you on KC though.
ReplyDelete