I'm not excited about the Harbaugh Bowl. In fact, I couldn't care less.
I don't like either team, I don't like any players on either team, and I don't like either coach. I also don't passionately dislike either team or either coach. I respect both teams, and their players. They are good teams. Not amazing teams. Not elite. Not the best teams in their respective conferences. But because of some lucky breaks and some weird plays, one of the Harbaughs will be a champion, and the other will pretend to be happy for him.
I still think the 3 best teams in the NFL are New England, Denver, and Green Bay, and I would put Seattle narrowly ahead of San Fran for #4. I'm not convinced Baltimore is a top 10 team, given their injuries and inconsistency. But alas, Denver's Rahim Moore made one of the worst plays in NFL history, and Baltimore is in the Super Bowl, and now Ray Lewis's legacy is being way overstated.
Now, two of the least likable Hall of Famers of our generation, Lewis and Randy Moss, will square off, and one of them will weep and rejoice and retire a champion.
It's been that kind of season. The kind that makes you want to gag.
It's fitting that this unpredictable, somewhat deplorable season, full of replacement refs, concussions, bounties, PEDs, everyone-hating-the-Commissioner, a botched hail mary call that screwed up the entire playoff scenario, and all sorts of other unpleasantries will end with a generally unlikable team hoisting the Lombardi.
Of course, this season had its high points. Many of them, actually. AP and Calvin had two of the greatest seasons ever for their positions, Peyton was incredible for a new team with a new neck, Luck and Griffin (and Russell Wilson) highlighted one of the best rookie classes ever, 3 pass rushing phenoms from the 2011 draft (Von Miller, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt) made runs at the sack record, and we got to enjoy Cutler, Roethlisberger and Eli all missing the playoffs. Despite the Lions' horrendous year and all the aforementioned gadflies, it really was a fantastic football season.
It's been a weird postseason in a lot of ways, with Hall of Fame quarterbacks left in the dust along the way. Remarkably, I now sit at 129-129-11 against the spread, with one game to go. One game to determine whether I'm above .500 or below .500 for the entire season. And fittingly, it's a game I can't seem to muster up any interest in.
There are plenty of storylines aside from the Harbaughs and Ray Lewis. There's the question of Flacco becoming ''elite," (excuse me while I puke and stab a voodoo doll of Ron Jaworski), there's Colin Kaepernick exploding from complete unknown to household name superstar in 2 months, there's the best middle linebacker of the past 5 years (Patrick Willis) against the best middle linebacker of the past 25 years (Lewis) in a game that makes everyone wonder if maybe middle linebacker isn't a more important position than we thought, and there's a bunch of utterly unlikable guys like Michael Crabtree and Terrell Suggs just being douches that nobody likes. There's also Alex Smith, the nice guy who got benched for the phenom, and needs to keep being nice in order to cash in for a major payday in a few months.
Like I said, I don't like either team. I'm inclined to cheer for San Fran, for a few reasons.
1. I kind of like Justin Smith. Great player, totally dominant, doesn't draw attention to himself.
2. Joe Staley went to Rockford High School. That's cool I guess.
3. I mildly dislike Kaepernick a little less than I mildly dislike Flacco.
4. I am so sick of Jim Schwartz that I've actually come to appreciate Jim Harbaugh's handshake antics.
5. I've always had a soft spot for Vernon Davis, even though by all observational accounts he's a jerk.
6. San Fran is the better team, and I like when the better team wins the Super Bowl.
On the flip side, I'd like to see Baltimore win, because I know the Steelers are cheering for San Fran.
The line is set at San Fran by 4.5, which I think is too high. Because of the coaching matchup and the defensive nature of both teams, I think points will be tough to come by, and scores will be quickly answered. San Fran might be able to pull away if Kaepernick plays mistake-free, but I don't see that happening. I see something like 13-10 at halftime, millions of bored fans losing interest, and then a crazy second half that features six touchdowns and the final is 37-34 in OT. With San Fran coming out on top.
Switching gears, it's almost time to talk about the NFL Draft. There's been a lot of shuffling of coaches and initially I was going to write a lengthy disposition about that. But I lost interest when all the hirings were no-names who are bound to be fired in 2 years. Only two new coaches are interesting to me: Chip Kelly, who takes his wildly innovative offensive scheme to Philadelphia, and Andy Reid, who inherits a pretty talented roster and the #1 overall pick in Kansas City. All the other 6 new coaches should be considered dead ducks until their teams start winning.
I'm a little surprised we didn't see more rumors about teams chasing Gruden, Cowher or Saban. Maybe that will happen next offseason. Or maybe those guys are happy where they are. Either way, we should have another 8 coaches fired next December, so this fun little process can happen all over again.
As far as the draft goes, we're still a long way from clarity. It looked like Geno Smith (QB from West Virginia) would be the #1 pick, but a five-game losing streak really sunk his chances and left a lot of people wondering if he can win in the NFL. Matt Barkley (USC's QB) started the year as the presumptive favorite for the top pick, and now he might have fallen out of the 1st round completely with a shoulder injury and a 6-loss season.
So who goes #1? Amazingly, that decision will be totally up to this creep.
My guess would be Luke Joeckel, the tackle from A&M. It's probably between him and Geno at this point, and it will depend what the Chiefs can do to address the QB position. Alex Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Flynn, and Tim Tebow will be their options. Pretty slim pickings. It actually wouldn't shock me if Reid stayed with Matt Cassel and waited until next year to find his quarterback. Kind of like what Jim Harbaugh did with Alex Smith. Just saying, it wouldn't shock me.
The next 5 or 6 picks could all be defense. After Joeckel, there isn't really an elite offensive prospect in this class. No WR or RB that resembles a top 10 pick. It all depends on where the QBs end up. With a myriad of teams in the top 10 needing to find their franchise quarterback, including Jacksonville (#2), Oakland (#3), Philly (#4), Cleveland (#6), Arizona (#7), Buffalo (#8), and the Jets (#9), you could see some hideous reaches and some preposterous trades. Geno and Barkley are very possible in the top 10. Maybe NC State's Mike Glennon and Arkansas's Tyler Wilson as well. Probably not Florida State's EJ Manuel, Oklahoma's Landry Jones, or Tennessee's Tyler Bray, but who knows. All of those guys have 1st round potential, but could make bargains in the 2nd or even 3rd.
The Lions pick at #5, and now that Manti Te'o is out of the question, it will either be a defensive end or a cornerback. There's only one cornerback that makes sense - Dee Milliner - who I still hope they'll pick. But I think Schwart'z affinity for defensive lineman will lead them to take a DE. It'll be justifiable, because Avril is on his way out the door, as is Lawrence Jackson. I thought VandenBosch was done, but now that the Lions' have hired a coordinator who called KVB his "favorite player," my guess is we'll have to endure another season of the red-eyed monster being overmatched and ineffective.
The glaring, gaping, heinous hole in the secondary won't matter to Schwartz as much as it matters to me, and the Lions will choose their favorite pass rusher. Someone fast enough to chase the QB but big enough to stop the run. Many current mock drafts have them taking A&M's Damontre Moore or Florida State's Bjoren Werner, but Georgia's Jarvis Jones might also be an option. Of those, none have blown me away on tape. They are look like good players, with Werner probably the most NFL-ready. But none look as good as Dee Milliner.
I really think Milliner will be an immediate star in the NFL. I think he'll make multiple Pro Bowls, he'll shut down elite receivers, and he might end up being the next Revis. Unfortunately, I think he'll do that for a team that isn't the Lions. A year from now, Detroit be stuck with a logjam of overpaid defensive linemen while trying to figure out who their next coach will be.
Go Tigers. Go Harbaugh.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Friday, January 18, 2013
Championship Round picks
2-2 against the spread last week, 1-3 straight up. Dreadful.
Now 3-5 ATS in the playoffs and 4-4 straight up. It's good to have parity and equality in the playoffs, but it's nearly impossible to pick this friggin games.
That said, I think I was on the right side by picking Denver and Seattle last week, and both got robbed in the last minute thanks to uncharacteristically bad pass defense. Rahim Moore chose a terrible time to show off his Louis Delmas impression and desecrate the legacies of both Peyton Manning and John Elway. If he makes that play with even a shred of competence, we have Brady v. Manning at ages 35 and 36, which is a freaking dream come true, as opposed to Brady v. Flacco, which doesn't even seem fair.
Ravens (12-6) @ Patriots (13-4)
Predicted Line: NE by 9.5
Actual Line: NE by 10
Almost everyone is taking the Patriots at home (10 point favorites), despite the fact that Gronk won't play and despite the fact that the last two games between these teams were decided by 3 points or less.
But New England is rolling, and Baltimore has been overrated all year long. I like the Pats to get up big early and then show off their running game, dominating time of possession and turning this into a blowout. 34-10.
49ers (12-4-1) @ Falcons (14-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 5
I've watched 10 quarters of Colin Kaepernick, and I'm already ready to move him above Rivers, Romo and Cam as a top 10 quarterback. I'm very close to moving him above RG3 and maybe Eli. The dude is incredible.
But, I still have Matt Ryan ranked at 5, a few spots above Kaep, and the Falcons are a disrespected home underdog, which is a good betting proposition. 75% of the betting public is taking the Niners -5, but I'm going the other way. Too many points. Niners win, 30-27.
That's all I got for now. Go Lions. I guess they won't be taking Manti Te'o after all.
Now 3-5 ATS in the playoffs and 4-4 straight up. It's good to have parity and equality in the playoffs, but it's nearly impossible to pick this friggin games.
That said, I think I was on the right side by picking Denver and Seattle last week, and both got robbed in the last minute thanks to uncharacteristically bad pass defense. Rahim Moore chose a terrible time to show off his Louis Delmas impression and desecrate the legacies of both Peyton Manning and John Elway. If he makes that play with even a shred of competence, we have Brady v. Manning at ages 35 and 36, which is a freaking dream come true, as opposed to Brady v. Flacco, which doesn't even seem fair.
Ravens (12-6) @ Patriots (13-4)
Predicted Line: NE by 9.5
Actual Line: NE by 10
Almost everyone is taking the Patriots at home (10 point favorites), despite the fact that Gronk won't play and despite the fact that the last two games between these teams were decided by 3 points or less.
But New England is rolling, and Baltimore has been overrated all year long. I like the Pats to get up big early and then show off their running game, dominating time of possession and turning this into a blowout. 34-10.
49ers (12-4-1) @ Falcons (14-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 5
I've watched 10 quarters of Colin Kaepernick, and I'm already ready to move him above Rivers, Romo and Cam as a top 10 quarterback. I'm very close to moving him above RG3 and maybe Eli. The dude is incredible.
But, I still have Matt Ryan ranked at 5, a few spots above Kaep, and the Falcons are a disrespected home underdog, which is a good betting proposition. 75% of the betting public is taking the Niners -5, but I'm going the other way. Too many points. Niners win, 30-27.
That's all I got for now. Go Lions. I guess they won't be taking Manti Te'o after all.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Round 2 picks
Abbreviated playoff picks, after a 1-3 wildcard round (3-1 straight up):
Ravens (11-6) @ Broncos (13-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 8.5
Actual Line: DEN by 10
Packers (12-5) @ 49ers (11-4-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 3
Seahawks (12-5) @ Falcons (13-3)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 3
Texans (13-4) @ Patriots (12-4)
Predicted Line: NE by 10
Actual Line: NE by 10
I'm taking the road teams in the NFC, and the Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the AFC.
Packers 27-23.
Seahawks 41-20.
Patriots 35-19.
Broncos 33-10.
That's it for now. Go Lions.
Ravens (11-6) @ Broncos (13-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 8.5
Actual Line: DEN by 10
Packers (12-5) @ 49ers (11-4-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 3
Seahawks (12-5) @ Falcons (13-3)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 3
Texans (13-4) @ Patriots (12-4)
Predicted Line: NE by 10
Actual Line: NE by 10
I'm taking the road teams in the NFC, and the Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the AFC.
Packers 27-23.
Seahawks 41-20.
Patriots 35-19.
Broncos 33-10.
That's it for now. Go Lions.
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Regular Season Wrap Up
Week 17:
9-7 ATS
8-8 straight up
Overall regular season:
125-123-11 (50.4%) ATS
157-98 (61.5%) straight up
Not great, but at least I ended up above .500. Hopefully I can dominate the playoffs and get up to 51.5 by the Super Bowl.
Now let's look back to all those imaginary bets I made before the season began. I missed many of them badly, missed a few by just a couple plays, and nailed a few other picks (the over on Indy and Minnesota, for example). Here's the recap:
Arizona, under 7 wins
Correct, they went 5-11 after a 4-0 start
Bet $40, -150 Odds, $26.80 profit
Baltimore, under 10 wins
Push (meaning tie)
Buffalo, over 8 wins
Incorrect, they were 6-10
Bet $50, lost $50
Chicago, under 9.5 wins
Incorrect, they barely eeked out 10-6
Bet $60, lost $60
Cincinnati, under 8 wins
Incorrect, 10-6 somehow
Bet $70, lost $70
Dallas, over 8.5 wins
Incorrect, 8-8
Bet $50, lost $50
Denver, over 9 wins
Correct, 13-3
Bet $50, -120 odds, $41.50 profit
Green Bay, over 12 wins
Incorrect, 11-5
Bet $70, lost $70
Indy, over 5 wins
Correct, 11-5
Bet $60, -125 odds, $48 profit
Jacksonville, under 5.5 wins
Correct, 2-14
Bet $90, even odds, $90 profit
Miami, under 7 wins
Push
Minnesota, over 5.5 wins
Correct, 10-6
Bet $40, -125 odds, $32 profit
New England, over 12 wins
Push
NY Jets, under 9 wins
Correct, 6-10. Though Rex Ryan recently said it was the best 6-10 season ever played, and teams are already scared to play them next year.
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit
Oakland, under 7 wins
Correct, 4-12. Still baffled that this line was set at 7 wins.
Bet $80, -130 odds, $61.60 profit
Pittsburgh, over 10 wins
Incorrect, 8-8.
Bet $50, lost $50
San Fran, under 10 wins
Incorrect, 11-4-1.
Bet $70, lost $70
Seattle, under 7.5 wins
Incorrect, 11-5.
Bet $100, lost $100
Tennessee, under 7.5 wins
Correct, 6-10
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit
Washington, under 6.5 wins
Incorrect, 10-6
Bet $30, lost $30
Total:
8-9-3 record on picks
Lost $106.10
Now a review of the prop bets I made:
Hightower, Gilmore or Ingram to win D-ROY
Bet $90, going to lose $90
Rodgers +3 passing TDs more than Stafford
More like +19 passing TDs
Bet $75, -120 odds, $62.47 profit
Cutler +1 passing TDs more than Vick
19 compared to 12. Both guys sucked.
Bet $100, -115 odds, $86.90 profit
Luck +2.5 passing TDs more than Griffin
23 to 20. Very close. But I win.
Bet $100, -105 odds, $95.20 profit
Lions team, under 18.5 interceptions
How about a measly 11?
Bet $50, -110 odds, $45.45 profit
Colts and Steelers win their divisions
Bet $75, lost $75
(But if Colts had won, which they almost did, I would have profited $425)
Broncos win division
Bet $50, +155 odds, $77.50 profit
Brady or Romo wins passing yards title
Bet $40, lost $40
Brees won for a 2nd straight year.
Marshall, most receiving yards
Bet $25, lost $25
The curse-breaking Megatron won. But Marshall was 3rd.
Tebow, over 4.5 rushing TDs
Bet $50, lost $50
I'm not even sure he had 4.5 rushing attempts.
Cowboys or Bills make Super Bowl
Bet $45, lost $45
Total on prop bets:
Gained $42.50
Total with props and over/unders:
Lost $63.58
With two yet to be determined:
Andrew Luck, Offensive Rookie of the Year
Going to be really close
Bet $50, potential profit $75
Patriots make Super Bowl
TBD, but I don't hate my chances.
Bet $75, potential profit $112.50
If Luck wins ROY and Pats make Super Bowl, I am up $123.92
If neither happens, I am down $188.58
If Luck wins ROY and Pats don't make Super Bowl (most likely scenario), I am down $113.58
....
So overall, not great. Oh well. Here are the Wildcard round picks:
Bengals (10-6) @ Texans (12-4)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4.5
Vikings (10-6) @ Packers (11-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 7
Actual Line: GB by 9
Colts (11-5) @ Ravens (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6
Actual Line: BAL by 6.5
Seahawks (11-5) @ Redskins (10-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3
What a freaking phenomenal slate of games. Three rookie QBs, two undertalented overachievers (Colts and Bengals), and one Adrian Peterson. Should be a great round of games. I'll keep these picks brief:
I like Houston big; they have way more talent on both sides. 34-13.
Packers will win, but it'll be closer than 9. Can't bet against AP right now. 27-23.
Balitmore has been overrated all year, but they get lucky (no pun intended) with their first round game. Indy is the least talented roster in the playoffs by far. Luck keeps it close though. Ravens 30-26.
RG3 pulls off the shocker! Seattle's defense is great, but Griffin's legs make the difference. Skins 24-21 in a nail-biter.
I'm going to hold off on NFL draft thoughts for a while. Still 4 months to go, and somebody always comes out of no where at the combine. I still like the Lions to get either Te'o or Milliner at pick #5, though a lot of people think they'll take a pass-rusher, which makes sense considering Avril and KVB are likely gone. Still, the back 7 needs to be addressed.
Three months til Tigers season! Stay tuned for my Tigers preview ....
9-7 ATS
8-8 straight up
Overall regular season:
125-123-11 (50.4%) ATS
157-98 (61.5%) straight up
Not great, but at least I ended up above .500. Hopefully I can dominate the playoffs and get up to 51.5 by the Super Bowl.
Now let's look back to all those imaginary bets I made before the season began. I missed many of them badly, missed a few by just a couple plays, and nailed a few other picks (the over on Indy and Minnesota, for example). Here's the recap:
Arizona, under 7 wins
Correct, they went 5-11 after a 4-0 start
Bet $40, -150 Odds, $26.80 profit
Baltimore, under 10 wins
Push (meaning tie)
Buffalo, over 8 wins
Incorrect, they were 6-10
Bet $50, lost $50
Chicago, under 9.5 wins
Incorrect, they barely eeked out 10-6
Bet $60, lost $60
Cincinnati, under 8 wins
Incorrect, 10-6 somehow
Bet $70, lost $70
Dallas, over 8.5 wins
Incorrect, 8-8
Bet $50, lost $50
Denver, over 9 wins
Correct, 13-3
Bet $50, -120 odds, $41.50 profit
Green Bay, over 12 wins
Incorrect, 11-5
Bet $70, lost $70
Indy, over 5 wins
Correct, 11-5
Bet $60, -125 odds, $48 profit
Jacksonville, under 5.5 wins
Correct, 2-14
Bet $90, even odds, $90 profit
Miami, under 7 wins
Push
Minnesota, over 5.5 wins
Correct, 10-6
Bet $40, -125 odds, $32 profit
New England, over 12 wins
Push
NY Jets, under 9 wins
Correct, 6-10. Though Rex Ryan recently said it was the best 6-10 season ever played, and teams are already scared to play them next year.
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit
Oakland, under 7 wins
Correct, 4-12. Still baffled that this line was set at 7 wins.
Bet $80, -130 odds, $61.60 profit
Pittsburgh, over 10 wins
Incorrect, 8-8.
Bet $50, lost $50
San Fran, under 10 wins
Incorrect, 11-4-1.
Bet $70, lost $70
Seattle, under 7.5 wins
Incorrect, 11-5.
Bet $100, lost $100
Tennessee, under 7.5 wins
Correct, 6-10
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit
Washington, under 6.5 wins
Incorrect, 10-6
Bet $30, lost $30
Total:
8-9-3 record on picks
Lost $106.10
Now a review of the prop bets I made:
Hightower, Gilmore or Ingram to win D-ROY
Bet $90, going to lose $90
Rodgers +3 passing TDs more than Stafford
More like +19 passing TDs
Bet $75, -120 odds, $62.47 profit
Cutler +1 passing TDs more than Vick
19 compared to 12. Both guys sucked.
Bet $100, -115 odds, $86.90 profit
Luck +2.5 passing TDs more than Griffin
23 to 20. Very close. But I win.
Bet $100, -105 odds, $95.20 profit
Lions team, under 18.5 interceptions
How about a measly 11?
Bet $50, -110 odds, $45.45 profit
Colts and Steelers win their divisions
Bet $75, lost $75
(But if Colts had won, which they almost did, I would have profited $425)
Broncos win division
Bet $50, +155 odds, $77.50 profit
Brady or Romo wins passing yards title
Bet $40, lost $40
Brees won for a 2nd straight year.
Marshall, most receiving yards
Bet $25, lost $25
The curse-breaking Megatron won. But Marshall was 3rd.
Tebow, over 4.5 rushing TDs
Bet $50, lost $50
I'm not even sure he had 4.5 rushing attempts.
Cowboys or Bills make Super Bowl
Bet $45, lost $45
Total on prop bets:
Gained $42.50
Total with props and over/unders:
Lost $63.58
With two yet to be determined:
Andrew Luck, Offensive Rookie of the Year
Going to be really close
Bet $50, potential profit $75
Patriots make Super Bowl
TBD, but I don't hate my chances.
Bet $75, potential profit $112.50
If Luck wins ROY and Pats make Super Bowl, I am up $123.92
If neither happens, I am down $188.58
If Luck wins ROY and Pats don't make Super Bowl (most likely scenario), I am down $113.58
....
So overall, not great. Oh well. Here are the Wildcard round picks:
Bengals (10-6) @ Texans (12-4)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4.5
Vikings (10-6) @ Packers (11-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 7
Actual Line: GB by 9
Colts (11-5) @ Ravens (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6
Actual Line: BAL by 6.5
Seahawks (11-5) @ Redskins (10-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3
What a freaking phenomenal slate of games. Three rookie QBs, two undertalented overachievers (Colts and Bengals), and one Adrian Peterson. Should be a great round of games. I'll keep these picks brief:
I like Houston big; they have way more talent on both sides. 34-13.
Packers will win, but it'll be closer than 9. Can't bet against AP right now. 27-23.
Balitmore has been overrated all year, but they get lucky (no pun intended) with their first round game. Indy is the least talented roster in the playoffs by far. Luck keeps it close though. Ravens 30-26.
RG3 pulls off the shocker! Seattle's defense is great, but Griffin's legs make the difference. Skins 24-21 in a nail-biter.
I'm going to hold off on NFL draft thoughts for a while. Still 4 months to go, and somebody always comes out of no where at the combine. I still like the Lions to get either Te'o or Milliner at pick #5, though a lot of people think they'll take a pass-rusher, which makes sense considering Avril and KVB are likely gone. Still, the back 7 needs to be addressed.
Three months til Tigers season! Stay tuned for my Tigers preview ....
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Week 17 picks
Another very average week. 7-7-2 against the spread, 11-5 straight up. That's pretty much automatic lately.
Season:
116-116-11 (50.0%) ATS
149-90 (62.3%) straight up
This playoffs are set in the AFC, thanks to an unbelievably bad performance by the Steelers. Somehow the Bengals have made the postseason two years in a row, despite the fact that I think the Lions could beat them 8 times out of 10. Andy Dalton does not impress me at all; in fact I could see his career having a Sanchez-like plummet in a couple years. Remember, Mark Sanchez won 4 playoff games in his first two seasons, and now he's considered barely a 3rd stringer.
In other news, Tebow is headed to Jacksonville this offseason, where he'll have a chance to compete for the starting job. My prediction - he'll be named the starter early in training camp, the Jags will build an offense around him (new coach, new linemen, new everything), and between a good running game and good defense, the Jags will go 8-8 and flirt with the playoffs, while Justin Blackmon has a miserable time and asks for a trade. If you thought Tebowmania peaked in Denver, wait til Jacksonville wins a few games and ESPN starts shooting off live fireworks on Sportscenter.
The Lions lost again, but really they won, as Calvin went for 225 and established one very incredible record. It was clear the fans, coaches and players wanted the record more than they wanted the win. And they got it. It was more than just a silver lining on a bad season; it was a historic, monumental, unforgettable milestone in the career of a guy who will become one of the best players to ever play. As Bears' Pro Bowl CB Charles Tillman said this week, "He's the LeBron of football."
It looks like AP is going to fall just short of Eric Dickerson's record, barring a 200 yard game, which probably means Peyton Manning will win MVP. The D-MVP battle is a tight competition between three pass-rushers who were rookies last year: JJ Watt, Von Miller, and Aldon Smith. Each guy has a reasonable chance to win it, as they rank 1, 2, and 3 in sacks. In my opinion, Aldon is out because he's the 3rd or 4th best player on his own defense, and Von should win it over JJ because he's more important to his team; without Von, Denver's defense falls apart. Without Watt, Houston still dominates. At least that's my thinking.
Coach of the year could go in about 10 different directions. Pretty much every single coach is either a candidate for this award, or a candidate to be fired. There's almost no middle ground. I think Chuck Pagano will win it for sentimental reasons, and it will be a cool story. But I'd give it to either Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, or Mike Smith. Heck, Pete Carroll would also be deserving. Yuck.
The NFC playoffs is down to one final spot, and it could go to Minnesota, Chicago, Washington, or the Giants. Dallas can't win the wildcard, but they can win the division with a win over the Redskins, which puts the Redskins in the running for the wildcard, if they get loses from everybody else involved.
Chances are, the Vikings will lose to Green Bay (who has something to play for) and stupid Chicago will end up in the playoffs, unless somehow Detroit musters up enough balls to actually play against them.
Here are the week 17 picks, and a few final predictions:
Bucs (6-9) @ Falcons (13-2)
Predicted Line: ?
Actual Line: None
Not sure if Atlanta's starters will play or not, and thus there's no line posted. My hunch is that Atlanta will treat this like a preseason game, and play Ryan and Co. for the first quarter. I'll set my own line at ATL by 3, and I'll say the Falcons backups aren't able to stop the high-octane Bucs. Tampa 27-23.
Bears (9-6) @ Lions (4-11)
Line: CHI by 3
Pick: Lions by 13.
Jets (6-9) @ Bills (5-10)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
How annoying is it that during week 17 when all sorts of playoff scenarios abound, the only thing they're talking about on ESPN radio is the Jets? It's very annoying. I don't care if Rex Ryan plays quarterback. The Jets suck.
But, so do the Bills. My guess is the Jets will have more fight left in them than Buffalo. Let's say Jets 13-10.
Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (9-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 3
Oops. Didn't realize both teams have virtually nothing to play for. Baltimore can't get a first round bye, and Cincy can't win the division. Both teams will be playing to avoid injuries. Watching the Bengals/Steelers last week (with a houseful of knucklehead Steelers fans), I learned that Cincy absolutely sucks, especially on offense, and that they shouldn't be trusted against anybody. Pittsburgh had about 50 chances to win that game and make the playoffs. But don't think I'm not rejoicing in their demise.
I like Baltimore by 6.
Jags (2-13 @ Titans (5-10)
Line: TEN by 4
Pick: Jags by 3
Texans (12-3) @ Colts (10-5)
Line: HOU by 7
Pick: Colts by 2
Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (7-8)
Line: NO by 5.5
Pick: Saints by 4
Eagles (4-11) @ Giants (8-7)
Line: NYG by 7
Pick: NYG by 13
Browns (5-10) @ Steelers (7-8)
Line: PIT by 11
Pick: PIT by 6
Chiefs (2-13) @ Broncos (12-3)
Line: DEN by 17
Pick: Broncos by 20
Packers (11-4) @ Vikings (9-6)
Line: GB by 3.5
Pick: Packers by 4
Dolphins (7-8) @ Pats (11-4)
Line: NE by 10
Pick: NE by 35
Raiders (4-11) @ Chargers (6-9)
Line: SD by 10
Pick: OAK by 2
Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (10-4)
Line: SF by 17
Pick: SF by 23.
Rams (7-7-1) @ Seahawks (10-5)
Line: SEA by 11
Pick: Seahawks by 6
Cowboys (8-7) @ Redskins (9-6)
Line: WAS by 3.5
Pick: DAL by 3
Coaches fired on Monday:
6 (Reid, Norv, Crennel, Shurmur, Gailey, Rivera)
Additional coaches fired by end of January:
3 (Rex Ryan, Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith)
Super Bowl pick:
I still like my preseason pick: Patriots over Packers.
Go Lions!
Season:
116-116-11 (50.0%) ATS
149-90 (62.3%) straight up
This playoffs are set in the AFC, thanks to an unbelievably bad performance by the Steelers. Somehow the Bengals have made the postseason two years in a row, despite the fact that I think the Lions could beat them 8 times out of 10. Andy Dalton does not impress me at all; in fact I could see his career having a Sanchez-like plummet in a couple years. Remember, Mark Sanchez won 4 playoff games in his first two seasons, and now he's considered barely a 3rd stringer.
In other news, Tebow is headed to Jacksonville this offseason, where he'll have a chance to compete for the starting job. My prediction - he'll be named the starter early in training camp, the Jags will build an offense around him (new coach, new linemen, new everything), and between a good running game and good defense, the Jags will go 8-8 and flirt with the playoffs, while Justin Blackmon has a miserable time and asks for a trade. If you thought Tebowmania peaked in Denver, wait til Jacksonville wins a few games and ESPN starts shooting off live fireworks on Sportscenter.
The Lions lost again, but really they won, as Calvin went for 225 and established one very incredible record. It was clear the fans, coaches and players wanted the record more than they wanted the win. And they got it. It was more than just a silver lining on a bad season; it was a historic, monumental, unforgettable milestone in the career of a guy who will become one of the best players to ever play. As Bears' Pro Bowl CB Charles Tillman said this week, "He's the LeBron of football."
It looks like AP is going to fall just short of Eric Dickerson's record, barring a 200 yard game, which probably means Peyton Manning will win MVP. The D-MVP battle is a tight competition between three pass-rushers who were rookies last year: JJ Watt, Von Miller, and Aldon Smith. Each guy has a reasonable chance to win it, as they rank 1, 2, and 3 in sacks. In my opinion, Aldon is out because he's the 3rd or 4th best player on his own defense, and Von should win it over JJ because he's more important to his team; without Von, Denver's defense falls apart. Without Watt, Houston still dominates. At least that's my thinking.
Coach of the year could go in about 10 different directions. Pretty much every single coach is either a candidate for this award, or a candidate to be fired. There's almost no middle ground. I think Chuck Pagano will win it for sentimental reasons, and it will be a cool story. But I'd give it to either Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, or Mike Smith. Heck, Pete Carroll would also be deserving. Yuck.
The NFC playoffs is down to one final spot, and it could go to Minnesota, Chicago, Washington, or the Giants. Dallas can't win the wildcard, but they can win the division with a win over the Redskins, which puts the Redskins in the running for the wildcard, if they get loses from everybody else involved.
Chances are, the Vikings will lose to Green Bay (who has something to play for) and stupid Chicago will end up in the playoffs, unless somehow Detroit musters up enough balls to actually play against them.
Here are the week 17 picks, and a few final predictions:
Bucs (6-9) @ Falcons (13-2)
Predicted Line: ?
Actual Line: None
Not sure if Atlanta's starters will play or not, and thus there's no line posted. My hunch is that Atlanta will treat this like a preseason game, and play Ryan and Co. for the first quarter. I'll set my own line at ATL by 3, and I'll say the Falcons backups aren't able to stop the high-octane Bucs. Tampa 27-23.
Bears (9-6) @ Lions (4-11)
Line: CHI by 3
Pick: Lions by 13.
Jets (6-9) @ Bills (5-10)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
How annoying is it that during week 17 when all sorts of playoff scenarios abound, the only thing they're talking about on ESPN radio is the Jets? It's very annoying. I don't care if Rex Ryan plays quarterback. The Jets suck.
But, so do the Bills. My guess is the Jets will have more fight left in them than Buffalo. Let's say Jets 13-10.
Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (9-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 3
Oops. Didn't realize both teams have virtually nothing to play for. Baltimore can't get a first round bye, and Cincy can't win the division. Both teams will be playing to avoid injuries. Watching the Bengals/Steelers last week (with a houseful of knucklehead Steelers fans), I learned that Cincy absolutely sucks, especially on offense, and that they shouldn't be trusted against anybody. Pittsburgh had about 50 chances to win that game and make the playoffs. But don't think I'm not rejoicing in their demise.
I like Baltimore by 6.
Jags (2-13 @ Titans (5-10)
Line: TEN by 4
Pick: Jags by 3
Texans (12-3) @ Colts (10-5)
Line: HOU by 7
Pick: Colts by 2
Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (7-8)
Line: NO by 5.5
Pick: Saints by 4
Eagles (4-11) @ Giants (8-7)
Line: NYG by 7
Pick: NYG by 13
Browns (5-10) @ Steelers (7-8)
Line: PIT by 11
Pick: PIT by 6
Chiefs (2-13) @ Broncos (12-3)
Line: DEN by 17
Pick: Broncos by 20
Packers (11-4) @ Vikings (9-6)
Line: GB by 3.5
Pick: Packers by 4
Dolphins (7-8) @ Pats (11-4)
Line: NE by 10
Pick: NE by 35
Raiders (4-11) @ Chargers (6-9)
Line: SD by 10
Pick: OAK by 2
Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (10-4)
Line: SF by 17
Pick: SF by 23.
Rams (7-7-1) @ Seahawks (10-5)
Line: SEA by 11
Pick: Seahawks by 6
Cowboys (8-7) @ Redskins (9-6)
Line: WAS by 3.5
Pick: DAL by 3
Coaches fired on Monday:
6 (Reid, Norv, Crennel, Shurmur, Gailey, Rivera)
Additional coaches fired by end of January:
3 (Rex Ryan, Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith)
Super Bowl pick:
I still like my preseason pick: Patriots over Packers.
Go Lions!
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Te'o or Milliner? ... Plus week 16's picks
That means the Lions are assured one of the top overall prospects in this draft. To me, it comes down to two players:
Manti Te'o, inside linebacker, Notre Dame
6'2", 255lbs, senior, born in Hawaii
Heisman trophy runner-up
Tabbed as "the next Ray Lewis"
DeMarcus "Dee" Milliner, cornerback, Alabama
6'1", 200lbs, junior, born in Alabama
Best shutdown cornerback in NCAA
Could be the next Darrelle Revis
There are other elite prospects that warrant consideration in the top 10. Certainly OLB Jarvis Jones from Georgia, but he'll probably go in the top 3. Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel will be the first offensive tackle selected, but can Detroit draft back-to-back tackles when the defense is in shambles? There are a few great DTs and pass rushers, but if Schwartz takes another D-linemen, it's going to really piss people off, and rightly so.
So to me, the decision comes down to linebacker or cornerback. Te'o or Milliner. Who will it be?
According to ESPN's Draft Board, Te'o is the #7 overall prospect and Milliner is #11. At CBSsports.com, Milliner is #4 and Te'o is #5. Drafttek.com ranks Milliner at #5 and Te'o at #7.
From my own perspective, watching Youtube clips, reading articles, watching interviews ... these might be the two most NFL-ready players in the entire class. I'm a little surprised they're not ranked #1 and #2.
Both guys have almost no red flags. They have both showcased leadership skills, durability, consistency, intelligence, and a selfless team attitude. Te'o is stronger in the intangibles (he's basically a hybrid of Tebow's personality with Patrick Willis' skills) but Milliner isn't exactly a low-life. He's made it through the corrupt Alabama program without getting arrested, suspended, or accepting free tattoos. So either guy would improve the assholeish nature of the Lions.
What impressed me most about Te'o is his speed. Combined with great instincts and perfect tackling form, he is almost Polamalu-esque in the way he appears to cover the entire field and bring runners down with ease and pain. He has anchored an undefeated Irish team all year, been their emotional leader and best player, and he would be useful in an NFC North that feature AP and Forte.
However, Milliner is equally impressive to watch. His ball-coverage skills are already superior to any cornerback the Lions have employed since .... Dre Bly? Ray Crocket?? Dick LeBeau???? Both guys will be immediate starters and possibly Pro Bowlers in their rookie seasons, but Milliner appears to be the guy more likely to dominate the NFL right away. Sure-tackling linebackers are pretty common, but shtudown corners are a rarity. I know I'm prone to hyperbole at times, but his coverage skills can easily be compared to Darrelle Revis. He has that combination of strength, speed, acceleration, quick hands, intelligence, and size. To say he'd be an immediate upgrade over Chris Houston is an understatement.
Te'o would also become the Lions' best linebacker right away, but the gap between him and Stephen Tulloch would be minimal. Tulloch is a great player, and Te'o's presence would move Tulloch to outside linebacker, which might not be a good fit. The deciding factor will probably be what happens before the draft with our many free agents. Along with Avril, VandenBosch, Gosder, and many others, our two starting outside linebackers - Levy and Durant - are both unrestricted free agents. And both guys have played well enough to earn sizable contracts elsewhere. If we manage to retain either guy, it'll be surprising. That's why I think Te'o has a good chance at being the pick.
Unfortunately, Chris Houston is also unrestricted. If the Lions lose him, they need to draft Milliner, because cornerback depth is not something we have. Linebacker depth, on the other hand, is more promising; Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis supposedly are coming along nicely and ready to play.
Assuming the Lions aren't able to beat Atlanta or Chicago (a fair guess), we'll probably end up picking 4th or 5th overall. Both Te'o and Milliner should be available. Due to our hellish salary cap situation induced by Stafford, Calvin and Suh's massive deals, it'll be nearly impossible to retain any good players. Avril is gone, at least one of the linebackers is gone (maybe both), Delmas might leave if he's not franchised, and Houston is probably gone too. This could be one of those cases where you trade down and collect picks and try to meet multiple needs in one draft, but let's be honest, the Lions ability to find a starter in the 2nd round is minuscule at best. When you're looking at the future Patrick Willis and Darrelle Revis, you don't trade down for two Boss Baileys.
It's too early now to make a real prediction, especially since some unknown guy always flies up the draft board and becomes a top 5 pick in March, but if I had to lean one way now, I'd say Milliner.
Realistically, the Lions will probably take Keenan Allen, receiver from California, because, you know, you can never have enough offensive weapons.
Last week:
6-10 ATS
10-6 straight up
8-6 over/unders
Season:
109-109-9 (50.0%) ATS
138-85 (61.8%) straight up
19-10 over/unders (65.5%)
Let's hit the week 16 picks:
Falcons (12-2) @ Lions (4-10)
Saturday night - 8:30, ESPN
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 4.5
With Detroit getting embarrassed by nine-game-losing-streak Arizona, it's no surprise 85% of the public is betting on the road favorite. But I'm going the other way. Detroit will step up its game for a few reasons:
- This game is nationally televised, they want to spare themselves more embarrassment.
- They want to help Schwartz keep his job; for whatever reason, the team likes him.
- They hate Atlanta; remember all this nonsense?
- They love shootouts. Calvin will embrace the challenge of outshining Julio and Roddy.
- Calvin is gunning for a major, major record.
- Stafford needs 375 yards per game over the next 2 games for 5,000; he definitely wants it.
- Mostly, they want to prove they are better than 4-10, and how better to do it than beating a 12-2 team on national TV right before Christmas?
Unfortunately, Atlanta is better coached, better quarterbacked, smarter, more disciplined, has a great offensive line, commits the fewest penalties in the NFL, and they continually feed off their lack of national respect. Detroit may actually possess the most talented roster, but in terms of execution and gameplan, it's no contest.
I think Atlanta will win, but Detroit will find a way to make it interesting. Final score: 28-24, Falcons.
(Over 51)
Saints (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3
Dallas did what I figured they would do: kept themselves in the playoff hunt despite all odds. Thanks to a no-show from the Giants and Bears, Dallas is right in the mix. If Seattle loses to San Fran this week (likely) and Minnesota loses in Houston (also likely), Dallas will be right in contention.
But, as I said two weeks ago, Dallas was going to get back in the race only because they're Dallas and they create drama. They aren't actually getting into the playoffs. They're just way too undisciplined and dumb and they have too much Tony Romo. Plus, the Saints just won 41-0, so now's not the time to bet against Drew Brees. I'll say the Saints end the Cowboys season and officially commence the hyperactive "AHHH TONY ROMO AHHH" discussion. New Orleans 34-16.
(Under 51.5)
Titans (5-9) @ Packers (10-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 13
Green Bay has clinched the division, but they're still playing for a first-round bye. So they should come out with guns blazing and looking to rack up some points. Tennessee doesn't have the defense to slow them down. Packers 38-13.
(Over 46)
Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 7
With just two weeks to go, KC can't afford another win if they want to secure Geno Smith. So they should be in full-tank mode. Even if they weren't, I'm not sure they can score any points or stop anybody.
However, I'm taking the points, simply because 7 points is a few too many for a road favorite when that road favorite has a terrible defense and is going against Jamaal Charles. Let's say Colts 24-19.
(Over 41.5)
Bills (5-9) @ Dolphins (6-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 4.5
Not much time to write these ... sorry.
This looks like too many points ... Dolphins by 3.
Chargers (5-9) @ Jets (6-8)
Line: Jets by 1
I liked Bill Simmons' pick of Jets 4, Chargers 3. But since that would be a tie on the spread, I'll say Jets win 5-3 and cover.
Redskins (8-6) @ Eagles (4-10)
Line: WAS by 7
Redskins have something to play for, Eagles don't. RG3 makes a big final push for ROY. Skins 34-24.
Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)
Line: PIT by 3
Go Bengals!! But I doubt it. Steelers 24-20.
Rams (6-7-1) @ Bucs (6-8)
Line: TB by 3
Should be a close game. But Bucs have more offense. Tampa 30-26.
Raiders (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)
Line: CAR by 10
Carson is the king of garbage time. Gotta take the points. Panthers 27-20.
Patriots (10-4) @ Jags (2-12)
Line: NE by 15
Make it Pats by 30 and I would still take the favorites.
Vikings (8-6) @ Texans (12-2)
Line: HOU by 9
Christian Ponder has been more and more awful as the weeks go by, but AP keeps games close and will be single-mindedly focusing on another 200 yard game. I'll say Texans by 6.
Browns (5-9) @ Broncos (11-3)
Line: DEN by 14
Lot of huge lines this week. I'm counting on big games for Brady, Rodgers and Manning as they all cover 13+. With the MVP on the line, it makes sense for them to be padding their stats a little. I think Broncos rack up 30 in the first half and cruise.
Bears (8-6) @ Cardinals (5-9)
Line: CHI by 6
Last week was a fluke. Ryan Lindley is still the optimum guy to bet against. Bears by 20.
Giants (8-6) @ Ravens (9-5)
Line: Giants by 1
Who knows. Could flip coins all day and still have be 100% sure I'll get this pick wrong. I'll just take the home team; Ravens by 3.
49ers (10-3-1) @ Seahawks (9-5)
Line: SF by 1
As good as Seattle is at home, San Fran is just the better team. Plus they won in New England last week. And Colin Kaepernick .... I'll go Niners 20-13.
Go Lions. Merry Christmas.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
15
I'm really hoping to stay above .500 for the year's picks, but it might not be easy. I went an ugly 6-8-2 ATS and 9-7 straight up during this weird, weird week that saw the Steelers, Saints and Falcons get killed and the Seahawks win by 58 points.
Overall:
103-99-9 (50.9%) ATS
128-79 (61.8%) straight-up
Luck and Griffin continued their amazing rookie crusades with last-second wins, the Lions botched another winnable game, the Jets are still alive in the playoffs despite being horrendous, the Browns won by 23 points (their biggest win since 2003), Nick Foles was a stud, the Cowboys stayed alive, the Bucs died, and the MVP comes down to Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning, two guys that we didn't even think for sure were healthy enough to play this season.
Also ... Colin Kaepernick is going to be a star QB very soon, Tom Brady embarrassed the Texans so badly that JJ Watt could lose the D-MVP to Von Miller as a result, and Calvin Johnson and AP both inched closer to breaking a couple of incredible single-season yardage records. I picked the Niners-Dolphins game exactly (27-13), and went 11-4 in my first week of ever guessing the over/under on total scores. (Not bad!)
In Draft news, KC and Jacksonville essentially locked in the 1st and 2nd picks, with KC going 1st right now by virtue of the tiebreaker. (Maybe it won't be a QB after all ... Geno Smith stock is dropping). Detroit has a chance to pick as high as 3rd, or as low as 10th. Two stud players the Lions sorely need are in that range - CB Dee Milliner and LB Manti Te'o. I'm almost rooting for Detroit to lose to Arizona, but not really, because that's humiliating.
Here are my week 15 picks:
Bengals (7-6) @ Eagles (4-9)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 5
The 6th playoff spot in the AFC is basically going to come down to Pittsburgh or Cincy, unless both teams implode and the Jets sneak in. Philly, after losing eight straight, has found a leader in Nick Foles, who was stinking fantastic against Tampa. If the next few games go well for Foles, he'll be their starting QB in 2013, and he just might save Andy Reid's job.
I'm taking the Eagles for two reasons: they're a 5-point homedog, and Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to slow down AJ Green, who is really the only weapon Cincinnati has. Although Nnamdi has had a really bad year by his standards, he's still one of the few guys alive who can limit AJ Green. Bengals 23-20.
(Under 45.5)
Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 1
I'm pretty sure Atlanta's the better team, and should be favored by more than 1. This looks like a total overreaction spread. I'll say Falcons 28-23.
(Under 51)
Packers (9-3) @ Bears (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3
Another overreaction line. Everybody is freaking out about Brian Urlacher's injury, but Urlacher is barely the fifth best player on his own defense (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings). By contrast, Green Bay is still without Woodson and Matthews, who are both significantly better than Urlacher. I hate Chicago and Jay Cutler was awful last week, (almost had 2 pick-sixes), but they probably shouldn't be a 3 point underdog at home. That said, Green Bay is rolling and I've picked against the Bears all season, so why stop now. Packers 27-17.
(Over 42)
Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 1
Griffin is somewhere between questionable and probable. In the interests of winning ROY (not to mention they have an outside chance at the playoffs), he should definitely start. If he does, I'm taking Washington. If not, I'm probably still taking Washington. Cleveland winning 4 in a row isn't a scenario I can fathom.
Griffin is out; Kirk Cousins is starting. I guess I'll stick with the Redskins, 23-21.
Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 1
Actual Line: STL by 3
I managed to watch most of the Vikings-Bears game last week, and it's clear that Adrian Peterson is gunning for nothing less than Eric Dickerson's record. He needs 168 rushing yards per game over the next 3 games. Which means, he needs a big 200+ game and he'll get there. Could this be that game?
Common sense would lean towards no, because the Rams rank 6th against the run. Jeff Fisher has them playing excellent defense, only giving up 30 points twice, to QBs named Rodgers and Brady. The Rams are a tremendous 9-4 ATS this year, and Fisher has done more with less talent than any other coach in the league. Not sure who will win Coach of the Year ... Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, Belichick maybe ... but Fisher should at least be in the discussion. He won't win it, because the Rams aren't going to the playoffs, but he's done a great job.
Anyway, three observations concerning the Vikings:
1) Christian Ponder has clearly regressed. He was awful last week, as he's been awful for a while. Throwing off his back foot, missing open guys, panicking in the pocket. All with 9 guys in the box focused on AP. Pretty sad how his career began with so much potential and now it's tumbling to the ground. Oh well.
2) Matt Kalil is amazing. A very worthy top 5 pick last year. He held his own against a tough Bears' D-line, including Julius Peppers on several plays. It's clear how much Adrian Peterson appreciates him. And it's pretty clear he should be in the Pro Bowl.
3) The Vikings defense is crap. Other than Jared Allen of course. But that secondary looked as lost as the Lions'.
So I'm taking the Rams, I guess. I think AP runs for about 145 yards, but Ponder betrays him and the Rams win this one 26-20.
(Over 38.5)
Jaguars (2-11) @ Dolphins (5-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4.5
Actual Line: MIA by 7.5
Miami likes to lose low-scoring, with an average score of 16-20. Jacksonville likes to lose big, 13-27 on average.
So I'm not real sure what to do with this spread. I don't think Ryan Tannehill has earned the right to be favored by 7 against anyone. Chad Henne's the better QB in this game, and he's facing his former team, which might give him some added motivation. I guess I like the Jags to keep it close. Maybe 20-14, Dolphins.
(Under 37)
Bucs (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
I'm so sick of hearing about the Bounty thing. I hope I never hear about it again. Bucs 34-27.
(Over 53)
Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3
Pretty sure there's a rule about not betting against Peyton Manning when he's on an 8 game winning streak. Plus, Baltimore has been overrated all year, and it's finally catching up with them, as this could be their third straight loss. How about Broncos 31-20.
(Over 48)
Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10
I'm pretty sure Luck is good enough that he shouldn't be a 9 point dog against anyone. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure. Houston 27-24.
(Over 48)
Seahawks (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 6
Remember when that idiot Richard Sherman trash-talked Tom Brady back in week 6, and I said
"It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day."
Well, Sherman has turned out to be a better mailman that anyone expected. The 2011 5th round pick (taken a whopping 110 picks after Titus Young) is already being called the best shutdown cornerback in football. By a lot of people. Including: Pro Football Focus, Ron Jaworski, Bleacher Report, WalterFootball, New England Sports Network, and of course, Himself.
So from this point forward, we have to consider Sherman's impact when picking the games. That entire Seattle defense is kicking serious butt, but Sherman just held Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch and 2 yards, so he's their star right now. It goes to figure that he'll shut down Stevie Johnson, but the Bills' offense should still be able to move the ball a little. It's sad that Fred Jackson's season-ending injury is actually a good thing for Buffalo, because CJ Spiller is clearly the better runner, and they'll finally be forced to use him. Remember when Jackson got hurt early in the season and Spiller ran for 292 yards in 2 games?
On the flip side, Marshawn Lynch goes into Buffalo to face the team that drafted him 12th overall in 2007. I imagine Bills fans aren't too fond of him. He shmucked around for 3 years, got hurt, arrested, suspended, then was traded for a 4th round pick. Now, he's an undeniable stud and maybe a top 5 RB in the league. Crappy luck for Buffalo.
I just don't believe in taking Seattle on the road, and despite Buffalo's current 2-7 skid, I think they're playing better than their record indicates. But I will take the Seahawks outright, 16-13.
(Under 43)
Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 6.5
Sheesh. We really have the same record as a team that's lost 9 straight? The only good thing I can say about the 2012 Lions is that they have me really looking forward to baseball season.
Let's look at this by the matchups:
Worst offensive line in NFL history VS. Suh, Fairley, Avril = huge edge to Detroit.
Absolutely no running game VS. Detroit's pretty good linebackers = huge edge to Detroit.
John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, or recently acquired Brian Hoyer = huge, huge, huge win for Detroit.
Larry Fitzgerald VS. Chris Houtson = huge win for Arizona.
The rest of the Cardinals weapons VS. the Lions' secondary = crap against crap. Could go either way.
Cards' defensive line VS. Lions' O-line = decent edge to Arizona.
Stafford VS. a defense that can rush the passer pretty well and cover pretty well too = tie.
Calvin VS. Patrick Peterson = edge to Calvin, obviously, but Peterson is good.
Leshoure and Bell VS. 30th ranked rush defense = edge for Lions
Tony Scheffler, Mike Thomas and Kris Durham VS. Cards' secondary = edge to Arizona.
Ken Whisenhunt VS. Jim Schwartz = edge to Cardinals
Intangibles:
Larry Fitzgerald says the Cardinals have quit = edge for Lions.
Calvin Johnson's pursuit of single-season record = edge for Lions.
Both coaches trying to keep their jobs = tie.
Homefield advantage = edge to Cardinals
Lions feeling embarrassed, disrespected, angry = edge for Lions.
Cardinals just can't wait for this season end = edge for Lions.
4pm EST game = edge for Cardinals.
Just heard the official word. Ryan Lindley will start.
He was worse than numbers can possibly explain in his 3 starts (no offensive touchdowns, 3 defensive touchdowns), but I'm going to refrain from making fun of him because if any defense could give up a 300 yard, 3 TD game to Ryan Lindley, it would be the Lions. In fact, I'm almost positive that will happen.
I'll say Lions win, 31-21.
(Over 44)
Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3
Both teams were very impressive last week, but have found ways to lose close games all season. Carolina is the better team with the better QB and better coach, and I'm really, really sick of the Chargers after all the ways they ruined my fantasy season(s). Panthers 27-13.
(Under 45)
Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 2
This line probably dropped a point or two because of Dez Bryant's broken finger, which is stupid. Anyway, the guy who would have guarded Dez, Ike Tayor, is also out, as are Pittsburgh's #2 and #3 cornerbacks. The secondary is in shambles, which is why they were thrashed by Phillip Rivers last week. Both of these teams and deeply flawed and deeply talented, and both need to win this game. A loss knocks Dallas out completely, while Pittsburgh can afford to lose as long as they beat the Bengals next week, which we all know they will. So I am actually going to take the homedog; I think the absence of Dez just means good games for Austin, Witten and Murray. Cowboys 33-30.
(Over 44)
Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 3
So much for my idiotic belief in Brady Quinn. Apparently a few profound words at a press conference doesn't make someone a good quarterback. I won't make that mistake again.
Oakland may actually want to lose this game, because it gives them a solid chance at the #1 or #2 pick and finding a franchise QB. Their defense is AWFUL (28th against the pass, 26th against the run, 30th in total yards, 31st in sacks, 32nd in points allowed, 29th on third downs) so even if they intend to stop Jamaal Charles, they might not be able to. Offensively, they're not much better. They only gain yards in garbage time. And to top it all off, Oakland is horrible at home: 5-10 over the past two years, and 5-27 ATS against sub .500 teams. So long story short, I'm taking the Chiefs! Man, I'm an idiot. KC 26-13.
(Under 44)
49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 4.5
Winning 7 in a row is always amazing. What's more amazing is scoring more than 40 points per game during that stretch. And it wasn't against a bunch of cupcake defenses; those 7 defense average a rank of 13th best in the NFL, and would be a tad higher if they all hadn't just taken turns getting whipped by the Patriots. So all that to say, if they can thrash Houston, St. Louis, Miami and Buffalo's above average defenses, why can't they do the same to San Francisco? When in doubt, Tom Brady covers the spread 59% of the time, so take the Pats. New England 37-27.
(Over 46.5)
Jets (6-7) @ Titans (4-9)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5
The stupid idiot Jets are going to win again and stay in this playoff race. I actually hope they make the playoffs so Peyton Manning can eradicate them by about 40 points in the first round. Jets win this one, 22-20.
(Over 41.5)
GO Lions.
Overall:
103-99-9 (50.9%) ATS
128-79 (61.8%) straight-up
Luck and Griffin continued their amazing rookie crusades with last-second wins, the Lions botched another winnable game, the Jets are still alive in the playoffs despite being horrendous, the Browns won by 23 points (their biggest win since 2003), Nick Foles was a stud, the Cowboys stayed alive, the Bucs died, and the MVP comes down to Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning, two guys that we didn't even think for sure were healthy enough to play this season.
Also ... Colin Kaepernick is going to be a star QB very soon, Tom Brady embarrassed the Texans so badly that JJ Watt could lose the D-MVP to Von Miller as a result, and Calvin Johnson and AP both inched closer to breaking a couple of incredible single-season yardage records. I picked the Niners-Dolphins game exactly (27-13), and went 11-4 in my first week of ever guessing the over/under on total scores. (Not bad!)
In Draft news, KC and Jacksonville essentially locked in the 1st and 2nd picks, with KC going 1st right now by virtue of the tiebreaker. (Maybe it won't be a QB after all ... Geno Smith stock is dropping). Detroit has a chance to pick as high as 3rd, or as low as 10th. Two stud players the Lions sorely need are in that range - CB Dee Milliner and LB Manti Te'o. I'm almost rooting for Detroit to lose to Arizona, but not really, because that's humiliating.
Here are my week 15 picks:
Bengals (7-6) @ Eagles (4-9)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 5
The 6th playoff spot in the AFC is basically going to come down to Pittsburgh or Cincy, unless both teams implode and the Jets sneak in. Philly, after losing eight straight, has found a leader in Nick Foles, who was stinking fantastic against Tampa. If the next few games go well for Foles, he'll be their starting QB in 2013, and he just might save Andy Reid's job.
I'm taking the Eagles for two reasons: they're a 5-point homedog, and Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to slow down AJ Green, who is really the only weapon Cincinnati has. Although Nnamdi has had a really bad year by his standards, he's still one of the few guys alive who can limit AJ Green. Bengals 23-20.
(Under 45.5)
Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 1
I'm pretty sure Atlanta's the better team, and should be favored by more than 1. This looks like a total overreaction spread. I'll say Falcons 28-23.
(Under 51)
Packers (9-3) @ Bears (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3
Another overreaction line. Everybody is freaking out about Brian Urlacher's injury, but Urlacher is barely the fifth best player on his own defense (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings). By contrast, Green Bay is still without Woodson and Matthews, who are both significantly better than Urlacher. I hate Chicago and Jay Cutler was awful last week, (almost had 2 pick-sixes), but they probably shouldn't be a 3 point underdog at home. That said, Green Bay is rolling and I've picked against the Bears all season, so why stop now. Packers 27-17.
(Over 42)
Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 1
Griffin is somewhere between questionable and probable. In the interests of winning ROY (not to mention they have an outside chance at the playoffs), he should definitely start. If he does, I'm taking Washington. If not, I'm probably still taking Washington. Cleveland winning 4 in a row isn't a scenario I can fathom.
Griffin is out; Kirk Cousins is starting. I guess I'll stick with the Redskins, 23-21.
Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 1
Actual Line: STL by 3
I managed to watch most of the Vikings-Bears game last week, and it's clear that Adrian Peterson is gunning for nothing less than Eric Dickerson's record. He needs 168 rushing yards per game over the next 3 games. Which means, he needs a big 200+ game and he'll get there. Could this be that game?
Common sense would lean towards no, because the Rams rank 6th against the run. Jeff Fisher has them playing excellent defense, only giving up 30 points twice, to QBs named Rodgers and Brady. The Rams are a tremendous 9-4 ATS this year, and Fisher has done more with less talent than any other coach in the league. Not sure who will win Coach of the Year ... Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, Belichick maybe ... but Fisher should at least be in the discussion. He won't win it, because the Rams aren't going to the playoffs, but he's done a great job.
Anyway, three observations concerning the Vikings:
1) Christian Ponder has clearly regressed. He was awful last week, as he's been awful for a while. Throwing off his back foot, missing open guys, panicking in the pocket. All with 9 guys in the box focused on AP. Pretty sad how his career began with so much potential and now it's tumbling to the ground. Oh well.
2) Matt Kalil is amazing. A very worthy top 5 pick last year. He held his own against a tough Bears' D-line, including Julius Peppers on several plays. It's clear how much Adrian Peterson appreciates him. And it's pretty clear he should be in the Pro Bowl.
3) The Vikings defense is crap. Other than Jared Allen of course. But that secondary looked as lost as the Lions'.
So I'm taking the Rams, I guess. I think AP runs for about 145 yards, but Ponder betrays him and the Rams win this one 26-20.
(Over 38.5)
Jaguars (2-11) @ Dolphins (5-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4.5
Actual Line: MIA by 7.5
Miami likes to lose low-scoring, with an average score of 16-20. Jacksonville likes to lose big, 13-27 on average.
So I'm not real sure what to do with this spread. I don't think Ryan Tannehill has earned the right to be favored by 7 against anyone. Chad Henne's the better QB in this game, and he's facing his former team, which might give him some added motivation. I guess I like the Jags to keep it close. Maybe 20-14, Dolphins.
(Under 37)
Bucs (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
I'm so sick of hearing about the Bounty thing. I hope I never hear about it again. Bucs 34-27.
(Over 53)
Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3
Pretty sure there's a rule about not betting against Peyton Manning when he's on an 8 game winning streak. Plus, Baltimore has been overrated all year, and it's finally catching up with them, as this could be their third straight loss. How about Broncos 31-20.
(Over 48)
Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10
I'm pretty sure Luck is good enough that he shouldn't be a 9 point dog against anyone. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure. Houston 27-24.
(Over 48)
Seahawks (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 6
Remember when that idiot Richard Sherman trash-talked Tom Brady back in week 6, and I said
"It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day."
Well, Sherman has turned out to be a better mailman that anyone expected. The 2011 5th round pick (taken a whopping 110 picks after Titus Young) is already being called the best shutdown cornerback in football. By a lot of people. Including: Pro Football Focus, Ron Jaworski, Bleacher Report, WalterFootball, New England Sports Network, and of course, Himself.
So from this point forward, we have to consider Sherman's impact when picking the games. That entire Seattle defense is kicking serious butt, but Sherman just held Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch and 2 yards, so he's their star right now. It goes to figure that he'll shut down Stevie Johnson, but the Bills' offense should still be able to move the ball a little. It's sad that Fred Jackson's season-ending injury is actually a good thing for Buffalo, because CJ Spiller is clearly the better runner, and they'll finally be forced to use him. Remember when Jackson got hurt early in the season and Spiller ran for 292 yards in 2 games?
On the flip side, Marshawn Lynch goes into Buffalo to face the team that drafted him 12th overall in 2007. I imagine Bills fans aren't too fond of him. He shmucked around for 3 years, got hurt, arrested, suspended, then was traded for a 4th round pick. Now, he's an undeniable stud and maybe a top 5 RB in the league. Crappy luck for Buffalo.
I just don't believe in taking Seattle on the road, and despite Buffalo's current 2-7 skid, I think they're playing better than their record indicates. But I will take the Seahawks outright, 16-13.
(Under 43)
Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 6.5
Sheesh. We really have the same record as a team that's lost 9 straight? The only good thing I can say about the 2012 Lions is that they have me really looking forward to baseball season.
Let's look at this by the matchups:
Worst offensive line in NFL history VS. Suh, Fairley, Avril = huge edge to Detroit.
Absolutely no running game VS. Detroit's pretty good linebackers = huge edge to Detroit.
John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, or recently acquired Brian Hoyer = huge, huge, huge win for Detroit.
Larry Fitzgerald VS. Chris Houtson = huge win for Arizona.
The rest of the Cardinals weapons VS. the Lions' secondary = crap against crap. Could go either way.
Cards' defensive line VS. Lions' O-line = decent edge to Arizona.
Stafford VS. a defense that can rush the passer pretty well and cover pretty well too = tie.
Calvin VS. Patrick Peterson = edge to Calvin, obviously, but Peterson is good.
Leshoure and Bell VS. 30th ranked rush defense = edge for Lions
Tony Scheffler, Mike Thomas and Kris Durham VS. Cards' secondary = edge to Arizona.
Ken Whisenhunt VS. Jim Schwartz = edge to Cardinals
Intangibles:
Larry Fitzgerald says the Cardinals have quit = edge for Lions.
Calvin Johnson's pursuit of single-season record = edge for Lions.
Both coaches trying to keep their jobs = tie.
Homefield advantage = edge to Cardinals
Lions feeling embarrassed, disrespected, angry = edge for Lions.
Cardinals just can't wait for this season end = edge for Lions.
4pm EST game = edge for Cardinals.
Just heard the official word. Ryan Lindley will start.
He was worse than numbers can possibly explain in his 3 starts (no offensive touchdowns, 3 defensive touchdowns), but I'm going to refrain from making fun of him because if any defense could give up a 300 yard, 3 TD game to Ryan Lindley, it would be the Lions. In fact, I'm almost positive that will happen.
I'll say Lions win, 31-21.
(Over 44)
Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3
Both teams were very impressive last week, but have found ways to lose close games all season. Carolina is the better team with the better QB and better coach, and I'm really, really sick of the Chargers after all the ways they ruined my fantasy season(s). Panthers 27-13.
(Under 45)
Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 2
This line probably dropped a point or two because of Dez Bryant's broken finger, which is stupid. Anyway, the guy who would have guarded Dez, Ike Tayor, is also out, as are Pittsburgh's #2 and #3 cornerbacks. The secondary is in shambles, which is why they were thrashed by Phillip Rivers last week. Both of these teams and deeply flawed and deeply talented, and both need to win this game. A loss knocks Dallas out completely, while Pittsburgh can afford to lose as long as they beat the Bengals next week, which we all know they will. So I am actually going to take the homedog; I think the absence of Dez just means good games for Austin, Witten and Murray. Cowboys 33-30.
(Over 44)
Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 3
So much for my idiotic belief in Brady Quinn. Apparently a few profound words at a press conference doesn't make someone a good quarterback. I won't make that mistake again.
Oakland may actually want to lose this game, because it gives them a solid chance at the #1 or #2 pick and finding a franchise QB. Their defense is AWFUL (28th against the pass, 26th against the run, 30th in total yards, 31st in sacks, 32nd in points allowed, 29th on third downs) so even if they intend to stop Jamaal Charles, they might not be able to. Offensively, they're not much better. They only gain yards in garbage time. And to top it all off, Oakland is horrible at home: 5-10 over the past two years, and 5-27 ATS against sub .500 teams. So long story short, I'm taking the Chiefs! Man, I'm an idiot. KC 26-13.
(Under 44)
49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 4.5
Winning 7 in a row is always amazing. What's more amazing is scoring more than 40 points per game during that stretch. And it wasn't against a bunch of cupcake defenses; those 7 defense average a rank of 13th best in the NFL, and would be a tad higher if they all hadn't just taken turns getting whipped by the Patriots. So all that to say, if they can thrash Houston, St. Louis, Miami and Buffalo's above average defenses, why can't they do the same to San Francisco? When in doubt, Tom Brady covers the spread 59% of the time, so take the Pats. New England 37-27.
(Over 46.5)
Jets (6-7) @ Titans (4-9)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5
The stupid idiot Jets are going to win again and stay in this playoff race. I actually hope they make the playoffs so Peyton Manning can eradicate them by about 40 points in the first round. Jets win this one, 22-20.
(Over 41.5)
GO Lions.
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