Mock Draft, 2013

First of all, my apologies for the lack of posts lately.  There hasn't been much to write about, and there hasn't been much time to write.  But with the NFL Draft - one of my favorite events of the year - just 10  days away, I had to throw something together.

I've been following the 2013 draft class since before the 2012 draft even happened, and it's been a tricky draft class to follow.   Matt Barkley was considered the no-doubt #1 pick as soon as he made the decision to stay at USC for "unfinished business" (a 7-6 record and a shoulder injury, nice job idiot).  He would've gone in the top 10 if he had declared for the 2012 draft; now, he's just hoping to be taken before the 3rd round.  Then, West Virginia's athletic (read: black) QB Geno Smith was the consensus #1 pick during a stretch of brilliant games; but after a 5-game losing streak and some negative scouting reports that questioned his character and work ethic, nobody's sure where he'll land, but it won't be the top spot.  Probably in the top 5, definitely in the top 10.

Meanwhile, names like DaMontre Moore, Bjoern Werner, Jarvis Jones and Barkevious Mingo have floated around as top 5 picks, but now have fallen into the "maybe top 20" range. They've been replaced by a bunch of "high-upside" guys named Dion, Shariff, Ziggy and Star.

Yes, I understand the absurdity of this situation. Me, in my dress pants and button up shirt, taking a break from Excel spreadsheets to read about guys with names like Ziggy and Barkevious.  It's absurd, and frankly, a little embarrassing.  Plus, I don't even like college football. I've probably never seen any of these guys play an actual game.  And I certainly wouldn't know what to do if I ever met someone named Barkevious.  I'm much more comfortable with people named Harold.

But it's the nature of this thing called the NFL draft.  Getting all excited that your team picked Star instead of Shariff, even though you really have no idea what that means.  That's what it's all about.

So let's start at the beginning, with the 2-14 Chiefs.

New coach Andy Reid takes over the 32nd ranked passing offense and a massively underachieving defense that actually has quite a bit of talent.  The Chiefs traded a 2nd and 3rd rounder for Alex Smith, which put an end to any Geno Smith rumors.  The general belief is that KC will take Texas A&M tackle Luke Joeckel, who has protected Ryan Tannehill and Johnny Football with great success.   It's a smart, safe pick, as Joeckel is considered by most analysts to be the most complete prospect in the draft class.  It doesn't scream "Watch out, here comes KC!" but it helps them build in the right direction.

If I were Reid or Chiefs' GM John Dorsey, I'd be smokescreening interest in Geno to boost his draft stock, hoping to create a demand for him, and then selling to the highest bidder.  With all the QB-needy teams like Oakland, Buffalo, Cleveland, and a few others, it might be possible for KC to get two 1st round picks and a 2nd for the #1 pick, while only moving down 8 or 10 spots and still landing a solid player.  But, Geno Smith is no RG3. I don't think the market demand for him will be high enough for KC to justify making the trade.  Especially after they may have already fallen in love with the idea of drafting Joeckel.

At #2, we have the Jags, who probably possess the worst roster in the NFL.  They certainly need a quarterback, but they are stubbornly singing the praises of Blaine Gabbert yet again, which means they'll likely be picking in the top 5 in the 2014 draft.  (Where, by the way, the QB prospects are going to be infinitely better.)

The Jags' defensive line is a mess, which suits the 2013 draft class perfectly; the top of the draft will be loaded with D-lineman.  Jacksonville can choose between Shariff Floyd, Star Lotulelei, Dion Jordan, and Ziggy Ansah, all of whom appear to be solid top 10 choices.  Most people think it's between the DT Floyd and the speedy DE Jordan.   My gut would be Jordan, because the choice of Floyd would be an admission that DT Tyson Alualu was a bad pick at #10 overall in 2010.  Of course, it was a bad pick - they reached for him 3 rounds too early! - but they don't want to admit that to their fans, even though it is a new regime.  Plus, Dion Jordan is drawing so many comparisons to Aldon Smith and Von Miller that he'll be hard to pass up.

The Raiders pick 3rd, and after acquiring Matt Flynn from Seattle it seems unlikely that they'll be the ones to take Geno Smith.  I won't rule it out though.  I doubt anyone thinks Matt Flynn is the long-term answer.  They'll either take Geno, or they'll grab a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round.  Either way, they've moved past Carson Palmer and put one of the worst trades in NFL history in their rearview, so good for them.  Let's say they'll also address their horrible defensive line, and give them Sharff Floyd. At least 3 out of my 7 favorite draft experts have predicted that, so that's good enough for me.

The 4th pick belongs to the Eagles, who are in turmoil and transition.  They hired Chip Kelly, who has no NFL experience and runs a college-style offense, to replace Andy Reid. They re-signed Michael Vick, which was idiotic, and they failed to trade Nick Foles to KC when they had a chance to get a 2nd rounder for him.  A year from now, Foles will have no market value; he has no place in a Chip Kelly offense.  That was a huge missed opportunity.  Also, they've said goodbye to all 4 starters from the secondary, and they ended the year losing 11 of their last 12 games. So yeah, it's one big pile of steaming crap in Philly.

The good news is, Chip Kelly might display a tremendous amount of bravado and select Geno Smith here, despite having Vick on the roster.  That would at least add intrigue to an already intriguing franchise.  It's more fun to have Geno in Philly than rotting away in Cleveland or Buffalo, right?   With his speed and arm strength, Geno is a good fit for Kelly's vertical, big-play offense.  And it's worth noting that Eagles' owner Jeff Lurie was present at Geno's Pro Day workout at WVU.  This was the first time Lurie has attended a private workout in 14 years, when he went to see Donovan McNabb.  Said Lurie, "It's an important decision.  When you select a quarterback, it's a very big decision.  We want all the information we can get on him."

A lot of people love the idea of Dion Jordan going to Philly to reunite with Chip Kelly, who coached him at Oregon.  But Jordan is going #2 in my mock, and even if he weren't, I don't think Kelly wants to be typecast as an Oregon guy.  I could also see them taking Star Lotulelei, the massive DT from Utah.  He would fit in perfectly as a DE in their 3-4, and many have said he could have a Suh-like impact right away.  He's NFL-ready, for sure.

But I don't think Chip Kelly went to the NFL so he could resurrect Michael Vick's sad career and be fired in 3 years.  As walterfootball.com says, "New regimes mean new quarterbacks."  If Kelly and Lurie are on the same page, Geno Smith will be the pick, and the NFC East will become even more interesting.

Okay, so that finally brings us to the Lions, picking at #5, after their disgraceful 4-12 season that shall be forgotten and never spoken of again.

Going into the offseason, the biggest needs were linebacker and cornerback.  Then, Avril went to Seattle and KVB was released, so defensive end became a big need. Then, Backus retired and Cherlius went to the Colts, so offensive tackle became a gaping hole.  But on the plus side, the Lions were able to retain DeAndre Levy, Chris Houston, Louis Delmas, and pick up Reggie Bush.

So I'll cut to the chase.  6 out of 7 of my favorite experts think Detroit will pick Central Michigan's left tackle Eric Fisher, a 6'7", 305 pound senior from Rochester Hills.  He's smart (Mechanical Engineering major), versatile (has played all over the O-line), quick (can pull, can get to the next level and block linebackers, can keep up with speed rushers), and strong (can dominate the line of scrimmage, at least against guys in the MAC).

The knock on Fisher is that he went to Central Michigan, and was only ranked as a two-star recruit coming out of high school.  U of M didn't even look at him.  But, there is a good precedent.  Central Michigan also produced current 49ers tackle Joe Staley, the 28th pick in 2007 and a two-time All Pro.  If Fisher can come close to replicating Staley's career, he'll be a fantastic selection at #5.

There are other options for Detroit - certainly Dee Milliner, the top CB available - as well as the myriad of pass rushers highlighted by Ziggy Ansah. Some people think the Lions will go in that direction and take an offensive tackle in the 2nd round.  Others think the Lions will try to trade down and amass some picks, to make up for the wasted picks on Titus, Jahvid and Broyles in recent years.  One thing's for sure:  Schwartz and his goons like to surprise people.  They like to outthink the room.  So even though Fisher may be the obvious choice, it wouldn't shock me if Schwartz deems some guy like Jarvis Jones as the best player available.  Really, after the terrible drafting strategies of recent years, and the super stubborn vow to not change anything about their stupid strategies, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lions took a kicker.

However, this being a top 5 pick probably means a little more predictability.  If Fisher is available, the Lions will probably be pressured into taking him, just because passing on him would engender more second-guessing than Schwartz is comfortable with.  He likes taking risks in the late first round or in the second round; but in the top 5, my guess is he plays it safe.  So, let's assume it's Eric Fisher and Riley Reiff anchoring the Lions' offensive line for the next decade.  Good enough for me.

Moving on, we have Cleveland at #6.  Everyone is convinced there will be a trade here; teams will be eager to leap in front of Arizona at #7 and grab Lane Johnson, the tackle from Oklahoma.

Why?  Well, there are considered to be three elite tackle prospects in this class: Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson.  Arizona needs a tackle badly.  So if Joeckel and Fisher are gone, and Arizona is up next, Cleveland could trade down and get compensated well for the #6 pick.  The top teams rumored to move up are Miami, who lost Jake Long, and San Diego, who needs to keep Phillip Rivers' career from crashing to a fiery halt.  Miami especially makes sense, because Lane Johnson fits their zone-blocking scheme.

But alas, I don't think Cleveland is necessarily going to trade down just because other teams want Lane Johnson.  The offer would have to be pretty good.  The Browns can't just keep sucking forever; eventually, they have to pro-actively improve their roster.  And with Dee Milliner and Ziggy Ansah available, as well as Lotulelei, I think they'll make a pick.  With a new coach, two new coordinators, and a new GM, this isn't the time to be passive.  And as much as the Browns need a CB to play opposite Joe Haden, I think Ziggy is the best player with the most upside, and the likeness to Jason Pierre-Paul makes him irresistible.

So, the Cardinals stay at #7, and they get their guy.  Lane Johnson from Oklahoma.  Nice pick.

At #8, the Bills have to be thinking quarterback.  The preposterously overpaid Ryan Fitzpatrick is gone, and newly acquired Kevn Kolb is not the answer.  If they miss out on Geno, that likely won't deter them from taking a QB.  Ryan Nassib (Syracuse) and E.J. Manuel (Florida State) will be available, as well as Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, and others.

The Bills could select a guard to fill a major hole on the O-line (Jonathan Cooper? Chance Warmack?) or take the top receiver available to give Kolb someone to throw to (that would be Tavon Auston from WVU), and then wait until the 2nd round to grab Barkley.  But when you look at the terrible reaches for QBs in recent years, including Locker, Gabbert and Ponder all going in the top 12, does E.J. Manuel at #8 seem so bad?  Buffalo fans, and eventually Toronto fans, will need a quarterback to get excited about.

Rounding out the top 10 ... the Jets have to go defense, and will be happy to find Milliner at #9, knowing that Revis probably won't be back next year.  At #10, the Titans will follow suit with another cornerback, Xaiver Rhodes from Florida State, who is flying up draft boards and challenging Milliner for the top CB spot.

Recap:

1. Chiefs - OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
2. Jaguars - DE Dion Jordan, Oregon
3. Oakland - DT Shariff Floyd, Florida
4. Philadelphia - QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
5. Detroit - OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
6. Cleveland -  DE Ziggy Ansah, BYU
7. Arizona - OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
8. Buffalo - QB E.J. Manuel, Florida State
9. NY Jets - CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
10. Tennessee - CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State

Quickly looking at the rest of the first round, there's going to be plenty of defensive tackles, offensive guards, and safeties, with a few receivers mixed in.  This draft class is very sparse at QB, RB, and linebacker.

At 11, the Chargers are likely to miss out on the trifecta of Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson, and will have to settle.  They could take Austin and give Rivers a real receiver; they could take Cooper or Warmack and give Rivers some protection; or they could see Rivers as a declining player and start focusing on the defense, with a sorely needed pass-rusher such as Jarvis Jones or The Mischievous Barkevious.  (That's what his friends call him).

Since guards rarely go in the top 15, and since the Chargers' offense was severely lacking playmakers last year, I'll say Tavon Austin goes 11th to San Diego.

Miami at #12 is going to take offensive tackle D.J. Fluker to replace Jake Long, which is kind of like replacing a filet mignon with a bologna sandwich, but oh well.

The Bucs are going to take Sheldon Richardson, DT from Missouri, according to almost everyone. The pick will definitely be defense.  If Rhodes and Milliner are gone, Richardson is the pick.
*EDIT - The Bucs just fleeced the Jets and acquired Darrelle Revis, making them a legitimate contender in the NFC South.  Rex Ryan now owns this pick and promises to do something loud, brash and obnoxious with it.  

At 14, Carolina will also be looking for defense.  The top ranked safety, Kenny Vaccaro from Texas, makes sense for them.  He specializes at covering tight ends and slot receivers, which could appeal to a team with Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez in their division.

The Saints come up next, and will yet again be single-mindedly looking for defense.  For them, the pass rush is the biggest weakness, and luckily, they'll have their choice between Jarvis and Barkevious, both of whom were once thought to be top 5 picks.  Both guys fit the 3-4, both are commonly mocked to the Saints, but only one can be the choice.  Let's go with Barkevious, since he went to high school 4 hours from New Orleans.

Then comes the Rams, who have been trying to get Sam Bradford a legitimate #1 receiver for what seems like decades.  They missed on Julio Jones, missed on Blackmon and Floyd last year, and now they'll miss Tavon Austin.  I'm showing Tavon Austin mocked to the Rams everywhere I look, but I'm also reading he's a top 12 pick, maybe top 10.  So unless they trade up, they'll have to look elsewhere.

Adding Jake Long was a huge boost to their offense, and eliminated the dire need for an offensive tackle, a need they've been trying to address since the catastrophic selection of Jason Smith with the #2 pick in 2009.  They still need help at guard, running back and receiver.  But unlike all the experts, I think this pick needs to be defense.

Yes, the Rams have good corners, good DEs, and pretty good linebackers.  But they play in a division with Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, and if they don't make some strategic adjustments, they're going to be left in the dust.  So I'm projecting a reach here.  They'll take either Bjoern Werner, creating a stockpile of DEs, or Alec Ogeltree, the excellent OLB from Georgia who is usually mocked in the mid 20s.  Let's say Ogeltree.

Next up is them Stellers at pick 17.  It's been a rough offseason, losing Mike Wallace and James Harrison, and watching their once-awesome defense get older and more mediocre.  A few different options here: Cordarrelle Patterson is a super fast receiver from Tennessee who can replace Wallace, and Jarvis Jones is a solid OLB to replace Harrison.  They could also go for Werner to play the DE spot in their 3-4; they might like the no-nonsense approach the big German provides on a team with plenty of divas.

Cordarrelle is the trendy mock selection, but it's not very Steelerish to take a WR or RB in the first 3 rounds.  They found Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders in late rounds and turned all 3 guys into legit weapons.  They don't need another WR who thinks he's a star; they do need to invest in their defense before it falls to crap.  I like the Werner pick a little more than Jarvis.

At 18, the always-underachieving Cowboys need to fix the interior of the offensive line. Jonathan Cooper from UNC is the guy. They are pumped that he's still on the board.

19th is the Giants, who also want to improve their O-line.  With Cooper gone, Chance Warmack is the guy.

Then at 20, you have the Bears, making their first pick without Lovie Smith in almost a decade.  New coach Marc Trestman is an offensive coordinator by trade, but this pick almost surely has to be defense. The only hole on the offense is tight end, now that the Bears gave big money to OT Jermon Bushrod.  Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert is a good fit for the tight end spot, but I'm not sure Jay Cutler is smart enough to use tight ends. Plus that seems a little too obvious.  I'll say they take the top CB on the board, Desmond Trufant from the U of Washington.

So to recap the top 20:


1. Chiefs - OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
2. Jaguars - DE Dion Jordan, Oregon
3. Oakland - DT Shariff Floyd, Florida
4. Philadelphia - QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
5. Detroit - OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
6. Cleveland -  DE Ziggy Ansah, BYU
7. Arizona - OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
8. Buffalo - QB E.J. Manuel, Florida State
9. NY Jets - CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
10. Tennessee - CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State

11. San Diego - WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia

12. Miami - OT D.J. Fluker, Alabama

13. Carolina - DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri

14. Carolina - S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas

15. New Orleans - OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU

16. St. Louis - OLB Alec Ogeltree, Georgia

17. Pittsburgh - DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State

18. Dallas - OG Jonathan Cooper, UNC

19. NY Giants - OG Chance Warmack, Alabama

20. Chicago - CB Desmond Trufant, Washington 

Now, the rest of the first round ... 

21. Cincinnati - S Matt Elam, Florida

22. St. Louis - S Eric Reid, LSU

23. Minnesota - WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee

24. Indianapolis - DE Jarvis Jones, Georgia

25. Minnesota - DT Sylvester Williams, UNC

26. Green Bay - TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Damne

27. Houston - WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson

28. Denver - DT Jonathan Hankins, Ohio State

29. New England - CB Jonathan Banks, Mississippi State

30. Atlanta - CB D.J. Hayden, U of Houston

31. San Francisco - S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International 

32. Baltimore - WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee

And the first 4 picks of the 2nd round ... 

33. Jacksonville - QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse

34. San Francisco - DE DaMontre Moore, Texas A&M

35. Philadelphia - WR Keenan Allen, California

36. Detroit - DE Alex Okafor, Texas 

That's it for now.

 Go Lions!  

Lions and Tigers and whatnot

For the past month I've been trying to write a Detroit Tigers preview.  But I can only say this in so many ways, so I'll keep it brief:  the team is almost Leyland-proof.  The Tigers have assembled the best roster in baseball, including the two best players in baseball, and they've fixed most of their glaring weaknesses.

Terrible DH Delmon Young ... replaced by the patient, smart, likable Victor Martinez.

Terrible 2B platoon of Inge & Raburn ... replaced by the well-rounded and competent Omar Infante.

Terrible closer Jose Valverde ... replaced by either super-rookie Bruce Rondon or a committee of relievers, either way, an obvious improvement.

Annoying platoon in right field consisting of Dirks/Boesch/Berry/Kelly/Garcia ... replaced by the ultra-consistent and lovable veteran Torii Hunter, who doubles as one of the best defensive outfielders ever.

Shaky back-end of the rotation (Porcello and Smyly) ... replaced by the consistent Annibal Sanchez and the winner of a Porcello/Smyly duel.

If you look back at the start of the 2012 season, the Tigers were a great team with some obvious weaknesses.  The weaknesses were Inge, Raburn, Valverde, Delmon, and starting pitching.  All of those weaknesses have been addressed and improved upon.  Now, only one glaring weakness remains.

Leyland.

Jim Leyland, the worst manager in pro sports, will try to take an All Star lineup, the league's best pitching rotation, 2 MVP candidates who are also Cooperstown locks in their primes, and a pretty solid bullpen, and somehow, against all odds, mangle the team into a .500 season.

Make no mistake, that is his mission.  However insane that sounds, Jim Leyland does strive for mediocrity.  He hates the fans, hates the media, hates the idea of winning streaks or homefield advantage, and probably hates half his players.  He's an angry, delusional, crazy old man who lost his mind about 4 years ago, and now only stays in the game because he likes telling the media how experienced he is.

So, just how Leyland-proof is this team?  With Verlander obliterating the competition every 5th start and Cabrera aiming for another triple crown, and Fielder quietly aiming for an MVP season of his own (which might be feasible with V-Mart hitting behind him), not to mention emerging superstars in Jackson and Scherzer, can this team possibly not win the division?   Especially given they play in the worst division in baseball, or any pro sport for that matter.

I don't think it's possible for Detroit to not win the AL Central and make another World Series run.  But then again, I didn't think it was possible last year.  50 out of 50 baseball experts picked the Tigers to win the division in 2012, and it was only accomplished because the White Sox went on a 2-10 stretch in September.  Remember, the Tigers may have won the Central in 2012, but we had the 7th best record in the AL, a worse record than three teams that missed the postseason.

So, I don't know.  It's been a good offseason for Detroit, and a good preseason.  Everyone's healthy, the riffraff are gone, the owner is willing to spend big money to win now (which probably means another trade deadline blockbuster), and need I mention again, we have the two best players in the world in their primes.  That's a pretty damn big deal, and I can't stand to watch Leyland botch it again.

But, it just might happen.   We very well might be hovering around .500 in August, with the stupid Royals or Indians two games back.  That's Leyland's hope, and he might be able to make it happen.  

Hopefully the roster is Leyland-proof.


......

Now, about those Lions.

Free agency was too busy to recap, for Detroit and just about every team.  The splashiest move was Reggie Bush (to replace the comatose Jahvid Best), but the most important occurrences were the retirement of Backus and the loss of Gosder, who signed with Indy.  Now, Riley Reiff steps into the left tackle spot, and nobody plays right tackle. We also released Stephen Peterman.

Everyone knows the key to a good offensive line is continuity.  Detroit has preached that for years, and exemplified it (the continuity part, not the good offensive line part).  Now, we are pretty much forced to draft an OT with the #5 pick, unless Jake Long decides to take a major hometown discount and come rescue the Lions (but since he just turned down the Rams for money reasons, that's probably unlikely).

That #5 pick could be Central Michigan's Eric Fisher, a worthy pick, except that Detroit's decimated defense needs so much help.

With Fisher and Reiff, the bookends of the O-line would be young and talented, and the platoon of Leshoure and Bush would nicely complement Calvin and the gang, while Pettigrew continues to suck and Stafford wastes his immeasurable talent by flicking stupid sidearm passes all over the place.  But, it would be a good offense.

The defense as it currently stands lost both defensive ends (Avril and KVB), which isn't as detrimental as people are saying.  Both guys were overrated, especially KVB who was basically worthless.  Avril was a sieve in run support, and only accrued sacks because he played next to Suh.  The bigger issue is that Detroit lost a lot of their depth on the defensive line (Sammie Hill is gone, Lawrence Jackson is on his way out).  We added a dude named Jason Jones, who can adequately replace KVB, but we need to add another defensive lineman or two, and we don't have much cash to do so.

If Suh and Fairley can live up to their draft statuses, the D-line will be fine.  But that's an 'if' that I don't have much faith in.

Fortunately, the Lions managed to keep Chris Houston and DeAndre Levy, two very important pieces of the defense.  They also kept Louis Delmas, which doesn't mean much to me.  His perception is much better than his reality.  Adding Glover Quin (safety from the Texans) was solid, and adding Dee Milliner with the #5 pick would make this secondary formidable.

It's very likely going to be either Milliner or Fisher.  Either guy would be a good pick;  both guys are needed.  Unfortunately, whichever position isn't addressed is going to be a gaping weakness.

I'm not getting my hopes up for this season.  I don't trust Schwartz or Stafford to lead this team.  Both guys are about their own egos and I think Stafford is one of the lazier quarterbacks in the NFL.  He doesn't have the obsessive will to win that seems prevalent among most QBs.  It's very sad that he was bypassed on the QB Ranking list by 3 rookies and a Kaepernick last year.  He's struggling to stay in the top 20, no matter what the numbers say.  It goes to figure that without Calvin Johnson, he might be a total bust.

So the NFL Draft will be interesting.  The Lions can't afford to waste any more picks by trying to outthink the room.   Just address your needs with good players and don't take any Titus Youngs.

With the Packers losing Jennings, the Vikes losing Harvin, and the Bears still having Cutler, the division could be winnable next year.

As for the rest of the NFL .... the Broncos, Seahawks and Colts got way better, the Chargers and Cardinals aren't even trying, the Ravens won't be back in the playoffs, and Freeney, Woodson, Dumervil and John Abraham still need jobs.  Also, the NFL Draft is going to be fascinating because at least 5 teams desperately need quarterbacks and the only real QB prospect worth getting is Geno Smith.

It's too early to say right now, but I think Geno will end up as the #1 pick.  The question is, who will trade up with KC, and how much will they give?  If Oakland, Jacksonville, Arizona and the Jets all want Geno pretty badly, and they all fear the surprise trade-up on draft day, somebody might give KC two 1st round picks and a 2nd just to move up a handful of spots in the draft.

Which would make KC a team to watch out for in about 3 years, once they get a QB of their own.  (Hint: not Alex Smith).

All that to say, April is going to be a good month.  NFL Draft, Opening Day, and winter is finally over.

Go Lions/Tigers.

Is Anyone Excited About The Harbaugh Bowl?

I'm not excited about the Harbaugh Bowl.  In fact, I couldn't care less.

I don't like either team, I don't like any players on either team, and I don't like either coach.  I also don't passionately dislike either team or either coach.  I respect both teams, and their players.  They are good teams.  Not amazing teams.  Not elite.  Not the best teams in their respective conferences.  But because of some lucky breaks and some weird plays, one of the Harbaughs will be a champion, and the other will pretend to be happy for him.

I still think the 3 best teams in the NFL are New England, Denver, and Green Bay, and I would put Seattle narrowly ahead of San Fran for #4.  I'm not convinced Baltimore is a top 10 team, given their injuries and inconsistency.  But alas, Denver's Rahim Moore made one of the worst plays in NFL history, and Baltimore is in the Super Bowl, and now Ray Lewis's legacy is being way overstated.

Now, two of the least likable Hall of Famers of our generation, Lewis and Randy Moss, will square off, and one of them will weep and rejoice and retire a champion.

It's been that kind of season. The kind that makes you want to gag.

It's fitting that this unpredictable, somewhat deplorable season, full of replacement refs, concussions, bounties, PEDs, everyone-hating-the-Commissioner, a botched hail mary call that screwed up the entire playoff scenario, and all sorts of other unpleasantries will end with a generally unlikable team hoisting the Lombardi.

Of course, this season had its high points.  Many of them, actually.  AP and Calvin had two of the greatest seasons ever for their positions, Peyton was incredible for a new team with a new neck, Luck and Griffin (and Russell Wilson) highlighted one of the best rookie classes ever, 3 pass rushing phenoms from the 2011 draft (Von Miller, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt) made runs at the sack record, and we got to enjoy Cutler, Roethlisberger and Eli all missing the playoffs. Despite the Lions' horrendous year and all the aforementioned gadflies, it really was a fantastic football season.

It's been a weird postseason in a lot of ways, with Hall of Fame quarterbacks left in the dust along the way.  Remarkably, I now sit at 129-129-11 against the spread, with one game to go.  One game to determine whether I'm above .500 or below .500 for the entire season.  And fittingly, it's a game I can't seem to muster up any interest in.

There are plenty of storylines aside from the Harbaughs and Ray Lewis.  There's the question of Flacco becoming ''elite," (excuse me while I puke and stab a voodoo doll of Ron Jaworski), there's Colin Kaepernick exploding from complete unknown to household name superstar in 2 months, there's the best middle linebacker of the past 5 years (Patrick Willis) against the best middle linebacker of the past 25 years (Lewis) in a game that makes everyone wonder if maybe middle linebacker isn't a more important position than we thought, and there's a bunch of utterly unlikable guys like Michael Crabtree and Terrell Suggs just being douches that nobody likes.   There's also Alex Smith, the nice guy who got benched for the phenom, and needs to keep being nice in order to cash in for a major payday in a few months.

Like I said, I don't like either team.  I'm inclined to cheer for San Fran, for a few reasons.
1. I kind of like Justin Smith.  Great player, totally dominant, doesn't draw attention to himself.
2. Joe Staley went to Rockford High School. That's cool I guess.
3. I mildly dislike Kaepernick a little less than I mildly dislike Flacco.  
4. I am so sick of Jim Schwartz that I've actually come to appreciate Jim Harbaugh's handshake antics.
5. I've always had a soft spot for Vernon Davis, even though by all observational accounts he's a jerk.
6. San Fran is the better team, and I like when the better team wins the Super Bowl.

On the flip side, I'd like to see Baltimore win, because I know the Steelers are cheering for San Fran.

The line is set at San Fran by 4.5, which I think is too high.  Because of the coaching matchup and the defensive nature of both teams, I think points will be tough to come by, and scores will be quickly answered.  San Fran might be able to pull away if Kaepernick plays mistake-free, but I don't see that happening.  I see something like 13-10 at halftime, millions of bored fans losing interest, and then a crazy second half that features six touchdowns and the final is 37-34 in OT.  With San Fran coming out on top.



Switching gears, it's almost time to talk about the NFL Draft.   There's been a lot of shuffling of coaches and initially I was going to write a lengthy disposition about that.  But I lost interest when all the hirings were no-names who are bound to be fired in 2 years.  Only two new coaches are interesting to me:  Chip Kelly, who takes his wildly innovative offensive scheme to Philadelphia, and Andy Reid, who inherits a pretty talented roster and the #1 overall pick in Kansas City.  All the other 6 new coaches should be considered dead ducks until their teams start winning.

I'm a little surprised we didn't see more rumors about teams chasing Gruden, Cowher or Saban.  Maybe that will happen next offseason.  Or maybe those guys are happy where they are.  Either way, we should have another 8 coaches fired next December, so this fun little process can happen all over again.

As far as the draft goes, we're still a long way from clarity.  It looked like Geno Smith (QB from West Virginia) would be the #1 pick, but a five-game losing streak really sunk his chances and left a lot of people wondering if he can win in the NFL.  Matt Barkley (USC's QB) started the year as the presumptive favorite for the top pick, and now he might have fallen out of the 1st round completely with a shoulder injury and a 6-loss season.

So who goes #1?  Amazingly, that decision will be totally up to this creep. 

My guess would be Luke Joeckel, the tackle from A&M.  It's probably between him and Geno at this point, and it will depend what the Chiefs can do to address the QB position.  Alex Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Flynn, and Tim Tebow will be their options.  Pretty slim pickings.  It actually wouldn't shock me if Reid stayed with Matt Cassel and waited until next year to find his quarterback.  Kind of like what Jim Harbaugh did with Alex Smith.  Just saying, it wouldn't shock me.

The next 5 or 6 picks could all be defense.  After Joeckel, there isn't really an elite offensive prospect in this class. No WR or RB that resembles a top 10 pick.  It all depends on where the QBs end up. With a myriad of teams in the top 10 needing to find their franchise quarterback, including Jacksonville (#2), Oakland (#3), Philly (#4), Cleveland (#6), Arizona (#7), Buffalo (#8), and the Jets (#9),  you could see some hideous reaches and some preposterous trades.  Geno and Barkley are very possible in the top 10.  Maybe NC State's Mike Glennon and Arkansas's Tyler Wilson as well.  Probably not Florida State's EJ Manuel, Oklahoma's Landry Jones, or Tennessee's Tyler Bray, but who knows.   All of those guys have 1st round potential, but could make bargains in the 2nd or even 3rd.

The Lions pick at #5, and now that Manti Te'o is out of the question, it will either be a defensive end or a cornerback.  There's only one cornerback that makes sense - Dee Milliner - who I still hope they'll pick.  But I think Schwart'z affinity for defensive lineman will lead them to take a DE.  It'll be justifiable, because Avril is on his way out the door, as is Lawrence Jackson.  I thought VandenBosch was done, but now that the Lions' have hired a coordinator who called KVB his "favorite player," my guess is we'll have to endure another season of the red-eyed monster being overmatched and ineffective.

The glaring, gaping, heinous hole in the secondary won't matter to Schwartz as much as it matters to me, and the Lions will choose their favorite pass rusher.  Someone fast enough to chase the QB but big enough to stop the run.  Many current mock drafts have them taking A&M's Damontre Moore or Florida State's Bjoren Werner, but Georgia's Jarvis Jones might also be an option.  Of those, none have blown me away on tape.  They are look like good players, with Werner probably the most NFL-ready. But none look as good as Dee Milliner.

I really think Milliner will be an immediate star in the NFL.  I think he'll make multiple Pro Bowls, he'll shut down elite receivers, and he might end up being the next Revis.  Unfortunately, I think he'll do that for a team that isn't the Lions.  A year from now, Detroit be stuck with a logjam of overpaid defensive linemen while trying to figure out who their next coach will be.

Go Tigers.  Go Harbaugh.

Championship Round picks

2-2 against the spread last week, 1-3 straight up.  Dreadful.

Now 3-5 ATS in the playoffs and 4-4 straight up.  It's good to have parity and equality in the playoffs, but it's nearly impossible to pick this friggin games.

That said, I think I was on the right side by picking Denver and Seattle last week, and both got robbed in the last minute thanks to uncharacteristically bad pass defense.  Rahim Moore chose a terrible time to show off his Louis Delmas impression and desecrate the legacies of both Peyton Manning and John Elway.  If he makes that play with even a shred of competence, we have Brady v. Manning at ages 35 and 36, which is a freaking dream come true, as opposed to Brady v. Flacco, which doesn't even seem fair.

Ravens (12-6) @ Patriots (13-4) 
Predicted Line: NE by 9.5
Actual Line: NE by 10

Almost everyone is taking the Patriots at home (10 point favorites), despite the fact that Gronk won't play and despite the fact that the last two games between these teams were decided by 3 points or less.

But New England is rolling, and Baltimore has been overrated all year long.  I like the Pats to get up big early and then show off their running game, dominating time of possession and turning this into a blowout.   34-10.

49ers (12-4-1) @ Falcons (14-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 5 

I've watched 10 quarters of Colin Kaepernick, and I'm already ready to move him above Rivers, Romo and Cam as a top 10 quarterback.  I'm very close to moving him above RG3 and maybe Eli.  The dude is incredible.

But, I still have Matt Ryan ranked at 5, a few spots above Kaep, and the Falcons are a disrespected home underdog, which is a good betting proposition.  75% of the betting public is taking the Niners -5, but I'm going the other way.  Too many points.   Niners win, 30-27.

That's all I got for now.   Go Lions.   I guess they won't be taking Manti Te'o after all.  

Round 2 picks

Abbreviated playoff picks, after a 1-3 wildcard round (3-1 straight up):

Ravens (11-6) @ Broncos (13-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 8.5
Actual Line: DEN by 10

Packers (12-5) @ 49ers (11-4-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 3

Seahawks (12-5) @ Falcons (13-3)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 3 

Texans (13-4) @ Patriots (12-4)
Predicted Line: NE by 10
Actual Line: NE by 10 

I'm taking the road teams in the NFC, and the Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the AFC.

Packers 27-23.
Seahawks 41-20.

Patriots 35-19.
Broncos 33-10.

That's it for now.  Go Lions.

Regular Season Wrap Up

Week 17:
9-7 ATS
8-8 straight up

Overall regular season:
125-123-11 (50.4%) ATS
157-98 (61.5%) straight up

Not great, but at least I ended up above .500.  Hopefully I can dominate the playoffs and get up to 51.5 by the Super Bowl.

Now let's look back to all those imaginary bets I made before the season began.   I missed many of them badly, missed a few by just a couple plays, and nailed a few other picks (the over on Indy and Minnesota, for example).  Here's the recap:

Arizona, under 7 wins
Correct, they went 5-11 after a 4-0 start
Bet $40, -150 Odds, $26.80 profit

Baltimore, under 10 wins
Push (meaning tie) 

Buffalo, over 8 wins
Incorrect, they were 6-10
Bet $50, lost $50

Chicago, under 9.5 wins
Incorrect, they barely eeked out 10-6 
Bet $60, lost $60

Cincinnati, under 8 wins
Incorrect, 10-6 somehow
Bet $70, lost $70

Dallas, over 8.5 wins
Incorrect, 8-8 
Bet $50, lost $50

Denver, over 9 wins
Correct, 13-3
Bet $50, -120 odds, $41.50 profit

Green Bay, over 12 wins
Incorrect, 11-5 
Bet $70, lost $70

Indy, over 5 wins
Correct, 11-5 
Bet $60, -125 odds, $48 profit

Jacksonville, under 5.5 wins
Correct, 2-14 
Bet $90, even odds, $90 profit

Miami, under 7 wins
Push

Minnesota, over 5.5 wins
Correct, 10-6 
Bet $40, -125 odds, $32 profit

New England, over 12 wins
Push

NY Jets, under 9 wins
Correct, 6-10.  Though Rex Ryan recently said it was the best 6-10 season ever played, and teams are already scared to play them next year.  
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit

Oakland, under 7 wins
Correct, 4-12.  Still baffled that this line was set at 7 wins.   
Bet $80, -130 odds, $61.60 profit

Pittsburgh, over 10 wins
Incorrect, 8-8.
Bet $50, lost $50

San Fran, under 10 wins
Incorrect, 11-4-1. 
Bet $70, lost $70

Seattle, under 7.5 wins
Incorrect, 11-5. 
Bet $100, lost $100

Tennessee, under 7.5 wins
Correct, 6-10
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit

Washington, under 6.5 wins
Incorrect, 10-6
Bet $30, lost $30

Total:    
8-9-3 record on picks 
Lost $106.10 

Now a review of the prop bets I made:

Hightower, Gilmore or Ingram to win D-ROY
Bet $90, going to lose $90

Rodgers +3 passing TDs more than Stafford
More like +19 passing TDs
Bet $75, -120 odds, $62.47 profit

Cutler +1 passing TDs more than Vick
19 compared to 12. Both guys sucked.
Bet $100, -115 odds, $86.90 profit

Luck +2.5 passing TDs more than Griffin
23 to 20.  Very close. But I win.
Bet $100, -105 odds, $95.20 profit

Lions team, under 18.5 interceptions
How about a measly 11?
Bet $50, -110 odds, $45.45 profit

Colts and Steelers win their divisions
Bet $75, lost $75
(But if Colts had won, which they almost did, I would have profited $425)

Broncos win division
Bet $50, +155 odds, $77.50 profit

Brady or Romo wins passing yards title
Bet $40, lost $40
Brees won for a 2nd straight year.

Marshall, most receiving yards
Bet $25, lost $25
The curse-breaking Megatron won. But Marshall was 3rd.

Tebow, over 4.5 rushing TDs
Bet $50, lost $50
I'm not even sure he had 4.5 rushing attempts.

Cowboys or Bills make Super Bowl
Bet $45, lost $45


Total on prop bets: 
Gained $42.50 

Total with props and over/unders: 
Lost $63.58 

With two yet to be determined:



Andrew Luck, Offensive Rookie of the Year
Going to be really close
Bet $50, potential profit $75


Patriots make Super Bowl
TBD, but I don't hate my chances.
Bet $75, potential profit $112.50

If Luck wins ROY and Pats make Super Bowl, I am up $123.92

If neither happens, I am down $188.58

If Luck wins ROY and Pats don't make Super Bowl (most likely scenario), I am down $113.58

....


So overall, not great.  Oh well.  Here are the Wildcard round picks:


Bengals (10-6) @ Texans (12-4)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4.5


Vikings (10-6) @ Packers (11-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 7
Actual Line: GB by 9


Colts (11-5) @ Ravens (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6
Actual Line: BAL by 6.5


Seahawks (11-5) @ Redskins (10-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3


What a freaking phenomenal slate of games.  Three rookie QBs, two undertalented overachievers (Colts and Bengals), and one Adrian Peterson.  Should be a great round of games.  I'll keep these picks brief:

I like Houston big; they have way more talent on both sides.  34-13.

Packers will win, but it'll be closer than 9.  Can't bet against AP right now.  27-23.

Balitmore has been overrated all year, but they get lucky (no pun intended) with their first round game.  Indy is the least talented roster in the playoffs by far.  Luck keeps it close though.  Ravens 30-26.

RG3 pulls off the shocker!  Seattle's defense is great, but Griffin's legs make the difference.  Skins 24-21 in a nail-biter.  



I'm going to hold off on NFL draft thoughts for a while.  Still 4 months to go, and somebody always comes out of no where at the combine.   I still like the Lions to get either Te'o or Milliner at pick #5, though a lot of people think they'll take a pass-rusher, which makes sense considering Avril and KVB are likely gone.  Still, the back 7 needs to be addressed.


Three months til Tigers season!   Stay tuned for my Tigers preview ....

Week 17 picks

Another very average week.  7-7-2 against the spread, 11-5 straight up.  That's pretty much automatic lately.

Season:
116-116-11 (50.0%)  ATS
149-90 (62.3%) straight up

This playoffs are set in the AFC, thanks to an unbelievably bad performance by the Steelers.  Somehow the Bengals have made the postseason two years in a row, despite the fact that I think the Lions could beat them 8 times out of 10.  Andy Dalton does not impress me at all; in fact I could see his career having a Sanchez-like plummet in a couple years.  Remember, Mark Sanchez won 4 playoff games in his first two seasons, and now he's considered barely a 3rd stringer.

In other news, Tebow is headed to Jacksonville this offseason, where he'll have a chance to compete for the starting job.  My prediction - he'll be named the starter early in training camp, the Jags will build an offense around him (new coach, new linemen, new everything), and between a good running game and good defense, the Jags will go 8-8 and flirt with the playoffs, while Justin Blackmon has a miserable time and asks for a trade.  If you thought Tebowmania peaked in Denver, wait til Jacksonville wins a few games and ESPN starts shooting off live fireworks on Sportscenter.

The Lions lost again, but really they won, as Calvin went for 225 and established one very incredible record.  It was clear the fans, coaches and players wanted the record more than they wanted the win.  And they got it.  It was more than just a silver lining on a bad season; it was a historic, monumental, unforgettable milestone in the career of a guy who will become one of the best players to ever play.  As Bears' Pro Bowl CB Charles Tillman said this week, "He's the LeBron of football."

It looks like AP is going to fall just short of Eric Dickerson's record, barring a 200 yard game, which probably means Peyton Manning will win MVP.  The D-MVP battle is a tight competition between three pass-rushers who were rookies last year: JJ Watt, Von Miller, and Aldon Smith.  Each guy has a reasonable chance to win it, as they rank 1, 2, and 3 in sacks.  In my opinion, Aldon is out because he's the 3rd or 4th best player on his own defense, and Von should win it over JJ because he's more important to his team; without Von, Denver's defense falls apart.  Without Watt, Houston still dominates.   At least that's my thinking.

Coach of the year could go in about 10 different directions.  Pretty much every single coach is either a candidate for this award, or a candidate to be fired.  There's almost no middle ground.  I think Chuck Pagano will win it for sentimental reasons, and it will be a cool story.  But I'd give it to either Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, or Mike Smith.  Heck, Pete Carroll would also be deserving.  Yuck.

The NFC playoffs is down to one final spot, and it could go to Minnesota, Chicago, Washington, or the Giants.  Dallas can't win the wildcard, but they can win the division with a win over the Redskins, which puts the Redskins in the running for the wildcard, if they get loses from everybody else involved.

Chances are, the Vikings will lose to Green Bay (who has something to play for) and stupid Chicago will end  up in the playoffs, unless somehow Detroit musters up enough balls to actually play against them.

Here are the week 17 picks, and a few final predictions:

Bucs (6-9) @ Falcons (13-2)
Predicted Line:   ?
Actual Line:  None 

Not sure if Atlanta's starters will play or not, and thus there's no line posted.  My hunch is that Atlanta will treat this like a preseason game, and play Ryan and Co. for the first quarter.  I'll set my own line at ATL by 3, and I'll say the Falcons backups aren't able to stop the high-octane Bucs.   Tampa 27-23.

Bears (9-6) @ Lions (4-11)
Line: CHI by 3
Pick:  Lions by 13.

Jets (6-9) @ Bills (5-10)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3 
Actual Line: BUF by 3

How annoying is it that during week 17 when all sorts of playoff scenarios abound, the only thing they're talking about on ESPN radio is the Jets?  It's very annoying.  I don't care if Rex Ryan plays quarterback.  The Jets suck.

But, so do the Bills.  My guess is the Jets will have more fight left in them than Buffalo.  Let's say Jets 13-10.

Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (9-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 3

Oops. Didn't realize both teams have virtually nothing to play for.  Baltimore can't get a first round bye, and Cincy can't win the division.   Both teams will be playing to avoid injuries.  Watching the Bengals/Steelers last week (with a houseful of knucklehead Steelers fans), I learned that Cincy absolutely sucks, especially on offense, and that they shouldn't be trusted against anybody.  Pittsburgh had about 50 chances to win that game and make the playoffs.   But don't think I'm not rejoicing in their demise.  

I like Baltimore by 6.

Jags (2-13 @ Titans (5-10)
Line: TEN by 4
Pick:  Jags by 3

Texans (12-3) @ Colts (10-5)
Line: HOU by 7
Pick:  Colts by 2

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (7-8)
Line: NO by 5.5
Pick:  Saints by 4

Eagles (4-11) @ Giants (8-7)
Line: NYG by 7
Pick:  NYG by 13

Browns (5-10) @ Steelers (7-8)
Line: PIT by 11
Pick: PIT by 6

Chiefs (2-13) @ Broncos (12-3)
Line: DEN by 17
Pick:  Broncos by 20

Packers (11-4) @ Vikings (9-6)
Line: GB by 3.5
Pick:  Packers by 4

Dolphins (7-8) @ Pats (11-4)
Line: NE by 10
Pick:  NE by 35

Raiders (4-11) @ Chargers (6-9)
Line:  SD by 10
Pick:  OAK by 2

Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (10-4)
Line:  SF by 17
Pick:  SF by 23.

Rams (7-7-1) @ Seahawks (10-5)
Line: SEA by 11
Pick:  Seahawks by 6

Cowboys (8-7) @ Redskins (9-6)
Line: WAS by 3.5
Pick:  DAL by 3



Coaches fired on Monday: 
6  (Reid, Norv, Crennel, Shurmur, Gailey, Rivera)

Additional coaches fired by end of January:
3 (Rex Ryan, Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith)

Super Bowl pick:
I still like my preseason pick: Patriots over Packers.


Go Lions!