Part One of my fantasy preview. I actually just wrote this over the past half-hour but I've been giving it a good amount of thought. I think it's actually quite brilliant.
With the quarterback position, I find it useful to break it down into tiers. Tiers that are based on not only the player’s production, but their consistency and the level of risk. Then I can place clumps of skill position players (RB, WR, TE) in between the tiers. The first tier is obvious.
Tier One: Franchise Studs
You can count on all three of these guys, and only these three guys, for amazing stats all season long and consistent, injury-free production from week one to sixteen.
1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
Tier Two: Small risk, huge reward
Two guys who I think could lead the NFL is passing yards if a few breaks go their way, but could potentially have mediocre seasons. I trust both of them, but not a tier-one level of trust.
4. Kurt Warner
5. Donovan McNabb
Tier Three: The Letter ‘R’
I didn’t do this to be cute; it just happened this way. The next four quarterbacks on my ranking all begin with the letter R. I almost included Romo but I didn’t want to appear desperate. These guys will produce great, but not record-breaking stats and should be very consistent. Each is an excellent fantasy starter.
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Phillip Rivers
8. Matt Ryan
9. Ben Roethlisberger
Tier Four: Now it starts to get risky
Guys with more risk than potential reward. They could be very serviceable most weeks and consistently above average, but don’t count on them to carry your season.
10. Carson Palmer
11. Eli Manning
12. Tony Romo
13. Matt Schaub
14. Jason Campbell
15. David Garrard
Tier Five: My favorite sleepers
Guys that have big-time potential and low expectations. They should be available late in any draft, if they are even picked at all.
16. Matt Cassel
17. Trent Edwards
18. Shaun Hill
19. Kyle Orton
Tier Six: Overrated but not terrible
Put it this way: I won’t be drafting any of these guys. Either they give you big yards and loads of turnovers (20, 21), or small yards and few touchdowns (22, 23).
20. Jay Cutler
21. Brett Favre
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Matt Hasslebeck
Tier Seven: Hope you enjoyed your success last year because it’s not happening again
24. Chad Pennington
25. Kerry Collins
26. Joe Flacco
Tier Eight: Giant risk, but definitely worth-it if it works out
They might not even play at all. If they do, they will probably be terrible. But there’s a small, Matt-Ryan of a chance that they produce beyond your wildest dreams.
27. Brady Quinn
28. Mark Sanchez
29. Matt Stafford
30. JaMarcus Russell
Tier Nine: If you want negative fantasy points.
Guys I would not draft under any circumstance.
31. Marc Bulger
32. Whoever plays QB for Tampa Bay
Much more to come later, this is just a small sample.