That is me.
I just haven't had time, nor have I had anything to write about. I am so mad about the stupid NFL labor strike that I don't want to think about sports.
March Madness is exciting, but it seems like both teams just dink around until there's 30 seconds left, and then shoot buzzer-beaters. Why don't teams ever just get a lead and stay ahead? If a team is down by 8 with 1:20 left, it doesn't matter - you know it's coming down to a buzzer-beater. Some people think that's what makes the NCAA fun. I think it's sloppy and lame.
Also, I miss the NFL and it's not even cancelled yet. But I've lost faith. I truly do not expect to watch any pro football in 2011. I barely even care about the Draft anymore. To culminate the problem, the Lions draft pick is the perfect storm of unexcitement. The first 8-10 picks are going to be enthralling. Franchise QBs, elite prospects, difficult decisions. By the time Detroit's on the clock, it simply comes down to one thing - do we want an OLB or a LT?
Akeem Ayers or Gabe Carimi? Tyron Smith or JJ Watt? Nate Solder or Ryan Kerrigan?
I have honestly no idea; no inclination in either direction. I was leaning towards OLB, which is a bigger need, but I think Detroit might take the franchise LT and then grab an OLB in the next round. Wisconsin's left tackle Gabe Carimi seems to be a better prospect than anyone else who will be available, but I'm afraid they'll buy into the Tyron Smith hype and take him instead. I don't trust an USC offensive player, especially an offensive tackle named Tyron. Maybe we'll lean towards Anthony Castonzo or Nate Solder. Neither would surprise me. But if Detroit is going to take a left tackle with the 13th pick, I hope it's Carimi.
But like I said, left tackle is a bigger need. We have none of the current roster who warrant a starting job. With free agency being nonexistent this year, perhaps we don't have a choice but to use the draft to find a starter. This CBA crap is nauseating.
In other news, it's almost NBA playoffs time, and the East is going to be amazing to watch. Three teams are within a game of the #1 seed (Chicago, Boston, Miami), and whoever gets the #3 seed of those teams has the unenviable task of playing New York, who let me tell you, is going to be a tough out. Not because of Amare and Carmelo putting up 30 points each, but because of Chauncey Billups, a leader who knows how to win in the playoffs.
My dream is seeing Miami lose in the first round, and if they get the 3 seed it's a distinct possibility. Also, don't sleep on Orlando, who will be the best 4 seed the East has seen in probably 20 years.
Out West, the first round will be chalk, but the WCFs should be fascinating. San Antonio will have homecourt throughout, and the Thunder are playing their best ball of the season, and of course don't forget the Lakers. I don't think Dallas has the firepower to make a run at the Finals, but 3 teams in each conference with legitimate title hopes makes for a great postseason.
Then there is Tigers season, which begins in 13 days, against the Yankees, with Justin Verlander against CC Sabathia. As I said to a friend last night, the Tigers could easily win their division, and they could easily finish last. They simply need to stay healthy.
This team has the arms and the bats to win consistently and avoid long losing-streaks. Verlander is a 20-win ace, and Scherzer is a solid #2 guy. The season really hinges on Rick Porcello, who just needs to be a consistent 4.50 ERA guy. The #4 pitcher is a weakness, either Brad Penny or Phil Coke. Not excited either way.
The lineup has the potential to be lethal, with improved hitting at the center and shortstop positions. Austin Jackson will be one of the AL's best leadoff hitters, provided he fixes the terrible K/BB ratio. Hitting in front of Cabrera will likely be Raburn and Ordonez, with former Red Sox Victor Martinez hitting in the 5th position, followed by powerful new shortstop Jhonny Peralta. This gives us an improved top 6, and then Inge, Avila and lastly Santiago/Kelly.
Taking Gerald Laird (.207) and Adam Everett (.185) - two of the worst overall hitters in the entire MLB - out of the lineup will do wonders for the Tigers' offense. Leyland's love affair with "defensive players" was overpowered by Dave Dombrowski's desire to win baseball games. You can't do that without scoring runs, and you can't score runs when Gerald Laird gets an average of 2 hits a month.
It's going to be a juggling act for Leyland, as Brennan Boesch platoons with Raburn in the outfield, and the DH spot rotates between Martinez and Ordonez. When Victor is at catcher and Maggs is the DH, that takes Avila's bat away and replaces him with either Boesch, Wells, or Kelly. Leyland's going to have to identify the hot hand and use it, rather than his typical strategy of stubborn scowling. If Leyland is stubborn, we'll suck. He's got to be flexible, and let the best players play.
If this team has a glaring weakness, it's the bullpen. Valverde is a great closer, but there is no clear set-up man. Joel Zumaya has a chance, but he's still fighting serious injuries and won't be ready for April. (The same goes for second-basemen Carlos Guillen, who will hit in the 6 spot and give the offense a boost whenever he's healthy, which might be never). Detroit will be leaning heavily on newly-acquired Joaquin Benoit, who pitched a sparkling season last year in Tampa with a 1.34 ERA in 63 games. But prior to last season, his career ERA was upwards of 5.00 in 8 seasons with Texas. I don't love him, but he's certainly an improvement over Perry and Thomas and Seay and Weinhardt, who will all be in the mix.
The bullpen isn't atrocious, but it's definitely below average. Benoit is going to have to find a consistent ryhthym in the 7th and 8th innings and keep Detroit from blowing leads, which they did so often last season.
The good news is that there is no clear favorite in the Al Central. Minnesota and the White Sox will contend, as will Cleveland, but Kansas City is worthless. Detroit might be able to win the division with only 90 wins.
It all hinges on Porcello.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Monday, March 7, 2011
Cam Newton the #1 Overall Pick ... Really???
There is a new name atop the most recent mock drafts. Not Fairley or Bowers, not A.J. Green or Patrick Peterson. It's Heisman winner Cam Newton, who led Auburn to an undefeated season and may or may not have got paid in the process.
He's atypical, has a weird throwing motion, and he ran for 1,400 yards and 20 TDs last year. He's a black Tim Tebow, and was considered a fringe first-round pick. But after an impressive Combine and reports that Carolina will use the #1 pick on an offensive player, Newton appears at the top of several big boards, while Nick Fairley has fallen out of the top 5 and possibly into the 8-10 range.
It's a stunning twist, but we saw the same thing happen last year when Ndamukong Suh and Russell Okung were being considered for the #1 pick, and St. Louis abruptly decided on Sam Bradford instead about a month before the Draft. When investing upwards of $60 million on a player who needs to turn a franchise around, it's just so hard for owners and GMs to pass on possible 'franchise quarterbacks.'
Of course, that mentality has led to some of the NFL's greatest busts, including JaMarcus Russell and David Carr, and soon to be Matt Stafford. It's a hit-or-miss proposition, and about 50% of the time it's a miss. But for some reason unbeknownst to me, Carolina seems to be leaning towards a quarterback, just like 8 of the last 10 teams did with the #1 pick.
It should be noted that the two #1 picks who were not QBs are Jake Long and Mario Williams, two of the all-around best players in the NFL, and players who you can definitely build a franchise around. Meanwhile, 4 of those 8 quarterbacks have been worthless, and only 1 (Stafford) has a chance to salvage his career.
But at any rate, it seems that Carolina - who desperately needs to improve their defense - is leaning towards taking an offensive player. NFL guru Adam Schefter reports that Carolina's new coach Ron Rivera, who is a former D-coordinator, is smitten with the prospect of acquiring a franchise quarterback with the #1 pick. Problem is, nobody's quite sure if he's smitten with Newton or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert.
Part of the issue is job security. Rivera knows how the head coaching business works. You win now, or you get fired. After 14 years as an assistant coach, this is his first shot as head coach. He can't feel very confident hitching his wagon to Jimmy Claussen, or Tony Pike. Most people expect Carolina to bring in Billy Volek (a favorite of Rivera's), but that's not the answer either. He wants a franchise QB to build around, because he wants to stay the coach past 2014.
If it were me, I'll tell you what I would do. Pass on Newton, pass on Gabbert, and take Da'Quan Bowers. He's the best player available. He's a monster. He's very Julius Peppers-like. Then, in the 3rd of 4th round, take a QB to try to develop. There is plenty of depth at the QB position in this draft. (Carolina has no 2nd round pick - they traded it to New England, of course).
I don't trust Cam Newton as a backup, let alone a franchise quarterback. I think he'll be a perfect mix of JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy and Tim Tebow's awkward release, mixed with a bit of Matt Leinart's celebrityness, and a hint of Vince Young's craziness. Throw in a dash of Reggie Bush for cheating and he'll be considered a bust within 5 years, about the same time he gives the Heisman back. Repeat: I do not trust Cam Newton.
But I'm not the Panthers, and I could care less what they do. It looks like they'll take Newton. Gabbert is probably #2 on their big board, and with Pro Day approaching he has the chance to supplant Newton if he can show off his arm. The favorite phrase of scouts is "he can make every throw." Gabbert is that kind of guy; Newton isn't. But, scouts should realize that other guys who can "make every throw" are Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford. It helps to look at intangibles, such as work ethic, toughness, leadership, and competitiveness. Of course, it's not all about intangibles, or Tim Tebow would be a Pro Bowler. You need both. And that, my friends, is rare.
Which is why 50% of quarterbacks taken in the first round are busts.
So ... let's talk about the rest of the Draft, but first, a clarifying sidenote. You may be wondering how I can talk about the NFL with much excitement without mentioning the impending lockout and the CBA and the fact that there might not even be a season. Well, it's called denial. That, and a little bit of hope and trust that this whole negotiating thing will actually work. Anyway, on to pick #2.
Denver will be happier than clams if Carolina throws the first pick away on Cam Newton (or Gabbert), because it means they get to choose the best player and take them for $5 million less. But then there's the tough part... choosing the best player.
Is it Bowers? Peterson? Green? Fairley? Dareus?
According to most scouts, Dareus passed Fairley as the best DT prospect at the Combine, and he knows ranks #2 overall on Scouts, Inc., behind only Bowers. Fairley has dropped all the way to #6.
But will Denver go for a defensive tackle, or a cornerback to replace Champ Bailey, who appears likely to leave? Patrick Peterson had perhaps the most impressive Combine of anybody, and has moved significantly ahead of Prince Amukamara as the best CB prospect. And of course there's Bowers, who could give Denver one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the NFL, opposite Elvis Dumervil, who missed 2010 but had a league-leading 17 sacks in 2009.
Dumervil and Bowers together would be lethal, but with no secondary it wouldn't matter. Dareus would help the run defense, but again, you need a cornerback. Most mock drafts now have Denver taking either Dareus or Bowers, but I'm going on a limb and saying they draft Patrick Peterson.
Which leads us to the fascinating selection of the Buffalo Bills, who are not being shy about their love of Cam Newton. If he slips past the Panthers, Buffalo is fully expected to snag him at #3. I know, bizarre.
If Newton is gone, Buffalo's options will be either Blaine Gabbert, or "settle" for an incredible talent like Bowers or A.J. Green. There would also be the two great DTs available, but Buffalo has a stud in DT Kyle Williams, so they'll likely address other needs.
Like I said, Buffalo wants a quarterback. I think Newton is the #1 player on their board, and I believe Peterson is #2. Unfortunately for them, both players are gone in this mock, but Da'Quan Bowers makes a nice consolation prize. Either that, or Gabbert. They might have interest in A.J. Green, but not ahead of Bowers. An elite receiver without a competent quarterback doesn't win you many games. Just ask 0-16 Calvin Johnson.
There is one other possible target for Buffalo at this pick, and that's Von Miller, who I previously mocked to the Lions. Sadly, his stock has risen, and there's no stinking way he's falling to pick 13. He might go in the top 5. Buffalo needs a 3-4 OLB badly, and Miller is a complete stud. He might fit their scheme better than Bowers. Lots of intriguing options for them. To be safe, I'll guess Bowers, assuming they'll pass on Gabbert and take a QB early in the 2nd round. Aside from the obvious names like Jake Locker and Ryan Mallet, there's also TCU's Andy Dalton and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, who have both generated plenty of interest as potential 'franchise QBs' who can be drafted later. Buffalo is probably targeting Kaepernick, the fastest QB in the draft, because Chan Gailey loves mobile quarterbacks, plus a Kaepernick/Fitzpatrick position battle would be entertaining.
So to recap,
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
At pick #4 is the Bengals, and the drama continues to escalade. You've got Carson Palmer who has reportedly demanded a trade and said that he will never play another game as a Bengal. His name is now tenatively added to the McNabb/Young/Kolb list as potential starters on the move. Two of those guys will end up in San Francisco and Arizona, I believe. Kyle Orton, meanwhile, has kept the #1 job in Denver according to John Fox, which means Tim Tebow is depressed but it proves that John Fox is competent, and it gives Denver a fighting chance at 8-8 this year. I digress...
Not only is Cincinnati maybe going to need a new quarterback, but TO is departing and Ochocinco is likely taking his sideshow elsewhere too. With all the drama surrounding the offense, plus Cedric Benson entering his contract year and playing horribly in 2010, doesn't Marvin Lewis have to address the offense with this pick, despite most of the supreme talent being on the defensive end?
Well, I think that all depends on how seriously you take Carson Palmer's threats of retirement and/or demanding a trade. He reportedly said he would retire if he wasn't traded. But, personally, I think he's bluffing. I think he just never wants to play another game with Ochocinco. I think he's bluffing so that Cincy's management will practically beg him to stay, and when he still doesn't seem happy, they'll say "Okay, fine! We got rid of both nutcase receivers, we let your ltitle brother be the backup quarterback, and if that's not good enough, we'll pass on Dareus and Fairley, who we NEED, and we'll take A.J. Green. Are you happy now???"
And he'll nod and say, Yes, thank you. Because he just landed a Calvin-like talent to go along with a great slot-guy in Shipley and a huge tight end in Gresham, not to mention potential stud #2 receiver Jerome Simpson, and Carson will have his best statistical season since 2005, which will help him get massively overpaid. Oh but just in case you forgot, he still stinks.
Next at #5 is Arizona, who might have more needs than any team. They need a quarterback, but between McNabb and Kolb I think they'll be all set. If not, Larry Fitzgerald will pack up his bags and wait for his contract to expire while he fakes a few injuries. They need McNabb, and McNabb needs them, so that should be an easy match. The hitch is that Fitzgerald has specifically asked for them to bring in Kolb, so they don't want to upset him. One way or another, they'll get one of those guys.
Their offensive line is a wreck, but they'll work on that in later rounds. This pick is between DT (Fairley/Dareus) and OLB (Miller/Quinn). Since this is a Ken Whisenhunt defense, and he is a former Steeler coordinator, I see this pick being an OLB. And Whisenhunt was spotted at the Combine talking to Von Miller for quite a while, and isn't shy about admitting he loves him, and comparing him to Clay Matthews. So I'll call this an easy pick and give them Miller, meaning Nick Fairley, the guy who I had going #1 a month ago, is now still on the board at pick #6. Crazy.
Cleveland will jump on A.J. Green if Cincinnati doesn't take him, and they might like Julio Jones enough to take him here instead. They NEED a #1 receiver to give Colt McCoy a chance to make strides this year, and they aren't finding one via free agency. It would be idiotic for them not to address the biggest position of need and to basically doom their quarerback.
But Mike Holmgren has a recent history of overconfidence and dooming his players, and he'll do it again this year. He'll spend the pick on defense, and get a very good player like Fairley or Dareus to replace the recently-released Shaun Rogers. Dareus is supposedly the better player, but Holmgren likes to be cute, so I think he'll take Fairley.
The #7 pick belongs to San Francisco, who I think will trade for Kolb if Arizona doesn't first. I think Jim Harbaugh is too smart to want McNabb or Vince Young. If he can't get Kolb, he probably drafts Blaine Gabbert. Either that or he hopes for a 1-15 season so he can draft Andrew Luck next year, but I already said Washington will do that and I'm sticking to it.
Lots of needs abound on San Fran's defense, and if they can trade for Kolb they'll address the defense with either Amukamara or Quinn or Dareus. But I think Kolb probably goes to Arizona, which means this pick is probably a quarterback. Gabbert is the #1 QB on a lot of boards, and fits Harbaugh's West Coast system well. Harbaugh actually tried to recruit Gabbert out of high school. Looks like a match made in heaven.
Recap:
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, WR, Missouri
Next up is Tennessee, who goes into this draft quarterback-less and hopeless. They have all kinds of needs, but if they can't land one of the top quarterbacks they'll got best player available. In this situation, that's gotta be DT Marcell Dareus. They'll follow Buffalo's lead and take a QB in the second round.
At pick 9 is the Cowboys, and it's a no-brainer if Prince Amukamara falls to them. He's a shutdown corner, and that's exactly what they need. Jerry Jones is even trying to do the reverse-psychology thing, saying recently "I'm not as down on our cornerbacks as you might think." Uh-huuuuh. Riiiiight. I buy that.
#10 belongs to Washington, a complete trainwreck led by the clueless Mike Shanahan. They'll lose their two highest-paid players this offseason (McNabb and Haynesworth) without getting anything in return, and they'll head into 2011 with Rex Grossman as quarterback unless they get Vince Young, which might be a step backwards. My guess is they'll go after Marc Bulger and maybe a guy like Tavaris Jackson. Shanahan wants to prove that he can win with crap players. Josh McDaniels tried that strategy last year. How'd that work out?
The Skins have needs everywhere, and should go best player available, which looks like Robert Quinn. They don't need an OLB as much as they need a quarterback and a receiver, but it's too early to reach for Locker or Mallet, and they'll be lucky to land a top-5 talent with the 10th pick. Quinn is a no-brainer, even for a guy with no brain.
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, WR, Missouri
8. Tennessee - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
9. Dallas - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
10. Washington - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Houston is next at 11, and they promise to take whichever player the Lions want most at pick 13. They'll steal Miller or Amukamara or Quinn if any of those guys fall. They usually draft smart. And with plenty of need for improvement on defense, they'll grab a top-flight pass rusher, since there are no cornerbacks on the board who warrant a pick in this position.
The question is, which pass rusher? Akeem Ayers, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan... Five guys who haven't really distinguished themselves from one another. And not far behind are Corey Liuget, Muhammad Wilkerson, Adrian Clayborn, and Justin Houston. It's going to be a tough, tough decision for Houston. Unless one of the aforementioned 10 guys falls to them, they have a crappy position. I don't have any idea who I would pick if I were them, and I don't have any idea who I think they'll pick.
But if we ask Mel Kiper, it'll be J.J. Watt from Wisconsin. So let's go with that.
Next up in the Vikings, who clearly want a quarterback, but might not want Jake Locker this early. They might make a crazy reach for him, or for Kaepernick or Mallet, but it's more likely they shore up the trenches. That could mean a new franchise left tackle, or adding another pass rusher. They either get the best offensive lineman available, or the sloppy seconds of pass rushers. My guess is they'll take the O-lineman, so they can move Bryant McKinnie over to right tackle, and start protecting their new quarterback, who they'll find either in the 2nd round or maybe in Kolb if they get lucky. Best offensive lineman is a total crapshoot, but I would pick Gabe Carimi.
And with that, the Lions are on the clock, with the 13th pick, for a season that might not even happen. Let me give it some thought, and I'll get back with you.
(Spoiler: it's going to be an OLB).
He's atypical, has a weird throwing motion, and he ran for 1,400 yards and 20 TDs last year. He's a black Tim Tebow, and was considered a fringe first-round pick. But after an impressive Combine and reports that Carolina will use the #1 pick on an offensive player, Newton appears at the top of several big boards, while Nick Fairley has fallen out of the top 5 and possibly into the 8-10 range.
It's a stunning twist, but we saw the same thing happen last year when Ndamukong Suh and Russell Okung were being considered for the #1 pick, and St. Louis abruptly decided on Sam Bradford instead about a month before the Draft. When investing upwards of $60 million on a player who needs to turn a franchise around, it's just so hard for owners and GMs to pass on possible 'franchise quarterbacks.'
Of course, that mentality has led to some of the NFL's greatest busts, including JaMarcus Russell and David Carr, and soon to be Matt Stafford. It's a hit-or-miss proposition, and about 50% of the time it's a miss. But for some reason unbeknownst to me, Carolina seems to be leaning towards a quarterback, just like 8 of the last 10 teams did with the #1 pick.
It should be noted that the two #1 picks who were not QBs are Jake Long and Mario Williams, two of the all-around best players in the NFL, and players who you can definitely build a franchise around. Meanwhile, 4 of those 8 quarterbacks have been worthless, and only 1 (Stafford) has a chance to salvage his career.
But at any rate, it seems that Carolina - who desperately needs to improve their defense - is leaning towards taking an offensive player. NFL guru Adam Schefter reports that Carolina's new coach Ron Rivera, who is a former D-coordinator, is smitten with the prospect of acquiring a franchise quarterback with the #1 pick. Problem is, nobody's quite sure if he's smitten with Newton or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert.
Part of the issue is job security. Rivera knows how the head coaching business works. You win now, or you get fired. After 14 years as an assistant coach, this is his first shot as head coach. He can't feel very confident hitching his wagon to Jimmy Claussen, or Tony Pike. Most people expect Carolina to bring in Billy Volek (a favorite of Rivera's), but that's not the answer either. He wants a franchise QB to build around, because he wants to stay the coach past 2014.
If it were me, I'll tell you what I would do. Pass on Newton, pass on Gabbert, and take Da'Quan Bowers. He's the best player available. He's a monster. He's very Julius Peppers-like. Then, in the 3rd of 4th round, take a QB to try to develop. There is plenty of depth at the QB position in this draft. (Carolina has no 2nd round pick - they traded it to New England, of course).
I don't trust Cam Newton as a backup, let alone a franchise quarterback. I think he'll be a perfect mix of JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy and Tim Tebow's awkward release, mixed with a bit of Matt Leinart's celebrityness, and a hint of Vince Young's craziness. Throw in a dash of Reggie Bush for cheating and he'll be considered a bust within 5 years, about the same time he gives the Heisman back. Repeat: I do not trust Cam Newton.
But I'm not the Panthers, and I could care less what they do. It looks like they'll take Newton. Gabbert is probably #2 on their big board, and with Pro Day approaching he has the chance to supplant Newton if he can show off his arm. The favorite phrase of scouts is "he can make every throw." Gabbert is that kind of guy; Newton isn't. But, scouts should realize that other guys who can "make every throw" are Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford. It helps to look at intangibles, such as work ethic, toughness, leadership, and competitiveness. Of course, it's not all about intangibles, or Tim Tebow would be a Pro Bowler. You need both. And that, my friends, is rare.
Which is why 50% of quarterbacks taken in the first round are busts.
So ... let's talk about the rest of the Draft, but first, a clarifying sidenote. You may be wondering how I can talk about the NFL with much excitement without mentioning the impending lockout and the CBA and the fact that there might not even be a season. Well, it's called denial. That, and a little bit of hope and trust that this whole negotiating thing will actually work. Anyway, on to pick #2.
Denver will be happier than clams if Carolina throws the first pick away on Cam Newton (or Gabbert), because it means they get to choose the best player and take them for $5 million less. But then there's the tough part... choosing the best player.
Is it Bowers? Peterson? Green? Fairley? Dareus?
According to most scouts, Dareus passed Fairley as the best DT prospect at the Combine, and he knows ranks #2 overall on Scouts, Inc., behind only Bowers. Fairley has dropped all the way to #6.
But will Denver go for a defensive tackle, or a cornerback to replace Champ Bailey, who appears likely to leave? Patrick Peterson had perhaps the most impressive Combine of anybody, and has moved significantly ahead of Prince Amukamara as the best CB prospect. And of course there's Bowers, who could give Denver one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the NFL, opposite Elvis Dumervil, who missed 2010 but had a league-leading 17 sacks in 2009.
Dumervil and Bowers together would be lethal, but with no secondary it wouldn't matter. Dareus would help the run defense, but again, you need a cornerback. Most mock drafts now have Denver taking either Dareus or Bowers, but I'm going on a limb and saying they draft Patrick Peterson.
Which leads us to the fascinating selection of the Buffalo Bills, who are not being shy about their love of Cam Newton. If he slips past the Panthers, Buffalo is fully expected to snag him at #3. I know, bizarre.
If Newton is gone, Buffalo's options will be either Blaine Gabbert, or "settle" for an incredible talent like Bowers or A.J. Green. There would also be the two great DTs available, but Buffalo has a stud in DT Kyle Williams, so they'll likely address other needs.
Like I said, Buffalo wants a quarterback. I think Newton is the #1 player on their board, and I believe Peterson is #2. Unfortunately for them, both players are gone in this mock, but Da'Quan Bowers makes a nice consolation prize. Either that, or Gabbert. They might have interest in A.J. Green, but not ahead of Bowers. An elite receiver without a competent quarterback doesn't win you many games. Just ask 0-16 Calvin Johnson.
There is one other possible target for Buffalo at this pick, and that's Von Miller, who I previously mocked to the Lions. Sadly, his stock has risen, and there's no stinking way he's falling to pick 13. He might go in the top 5. Buffalo needs a 3-4 OLB badly, and Miller is a complete stud. He might fit their scheme better than Bowers. Lots of intriguing options for them. To be safe, I'll guess Bowers, assuming they'll pass on Gabbert and take a QB early in the 2nd round. Aside from the obvious names like Jake Locker and Ryan Mallet, there's also TCU's Andy Dalton and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, who have both generated plenty of interest as potential 'franchise QBs' who can be drafted later. Buffalo is probably targeting Kaepernick, the fastest QB in the draft, because Chan Gailey loves mobile quarterbacks, plus a Kaepernick/Fitzpatrick position battle would be entertaining.
So to recap,
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
At pick #4 is the Bengals, and the drama continues to escalade. You've got Carson Palmer who has reportedly demanded a trade and said that he will never play another game as a Bengal. His name is now tenatively added to the McNabb/Young/Kolb list as potential starters on the move. Two of those guys will end up in San Francisco and Arizona, I believe. Kyle Orton, meanwhile, has kept the #1 job in Denver according to John Fox, which means Tim Tebow is depressed but it proves that John Fox is competent, and it gives Denver a fighting chance at 8-8 this year. I digress...
Not only is Cincinnati maybe going to need a new quarterback, but TO is departing and Ochocinco is likely taking his sideshow elsewhere too. With all the drama surrounding the offense, plus Cedric Benson entering his contract year and playing horribly in 2010, doesn't Marvin Lewis have to address the offense with this pick, despite most of the supreme talent being on the defensive end?
Well, I think that all depends on how seriously you take Carson Palmer's threats of retirement and/or demanding a trade. He reportedly said he would retire if he wasn't traded. But, personally, I think he's bluffing. I think he just never wants to play another game with Ochocinco. I think he's bluffing so that Cincy's management will practically beg him to stay, and when he still doesn't seem happy, they'll say "Okay, fine! We got rid of both nutcase receivers, we let your ltitle brother be the backup quarterback, and if that's not good enough, we'll pass on Dareus and Fairley, who we NEED, and we'll take A.J. Green. Are you happy now???"
And he'll nod and say, Yes, thank you. Because he just landed a Calvin-like talent to go along with a great slot-guy in Shipley and a huge tight end in Gresham, not to mention potential stud #2 receiver Jerome Simpson, and Carson will have his best statistical season since 2005, which will help him get massively overpaid. Oh but just in case you forgot, he still stinks.
Next at #5 is Arizona, who might have more needs than any team. They need a quarterback, but between McNabb and Kolb I think they'll be all set. If not, Larry Fitzgerald will pack up his bags and wait for his contract to expire while he fakes a few injuries. They need McNabb, and McNabb needs them, so that should be an easy match. The hitch is that Fitzgerald has specifically asked for them to bring in Kolb, so they don't want to upset him. One way or another, they'll get one of those guys.
Their offensive line is a wreck, but they'll work on that in later rounds. This pick is between DT (Fairley/Dareus) and OLB (Miller/Quinn). Since this is a Ken Whisenhunt defense, and he is a former Steeler coordinator, I see this pick being an OLB. And Whisenhunt was spotted at the Combine talking to Von Miller for quite a while, and isn't shy about admitting he loves him, and comparing him to Clay Matthews. So I'll call this an easy pick and give them Miller, meaning Nick Fairley, the guy who I had going #1 a month ago, is now still on the board at pick #6. Crazy.
Cleveland will jump on A.J. Green if Cincinnati doesn't take him, and they might like Julio Jones enough to take him here instead. They NEED a #1 receiver to give Colt McCoy a chance to make strides this year, and they aren't finding one via free agency. It would be idiotic for them not to address the biggest position of need and to basically doom their quarerback.
But Mike Holmgren has a recent history of overconfidence and dooming his players, and he'll do it again this year. He'll spend the pick on defense, and get a very good player like Fairley or Dareus to replace the recently-released Shaun Rogers. Dareus is supposedly the better player, but Holmgren likes to be cute, so I think he'll take Fairley.
The #7 pick belongs to San Francisco, who I think will trade for Kolb if Arizona doesn't first. I think Jim Harbaugh is too smart to want McNabb or Vince Young. If he can't get Kolb, he probably drafts Blaine Gabbert. Either that or he hopes for a 1-15 season so he can draft Andrew Luck next year, but I already said Washington will do that and I'm sticking to it.
Lots of needs abound on San Fran's defense, and if they can trade for Kolb they'll address the defense with either Amukamara or Quinn or Dareus. But I think Kolb probably goes to Arizona, which means this pick is probably a quarterback. Gabbert is the #1 QB on a lot of boards, and fits Harbaugh's West Coast system well. Harbaugh actually tried to recruit Gabbert out of high school. Looks like a match made in heaven.
Recap:
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, WR, Missouri
Next up is Tennessee, who goes into this draft quarterback-less and hopeless. They have all kinds of needs, but if they can't land one of the top quarterbacks they'll got best player available. In this situation, that's gotta be DT Marcell Dareus. They'll follow Buffalo's lead and take a QB in the second round.
At pick 9 is the Cowboys, and it's a no-brainer if Prince Amukamara falls to them. He's a shutdown corner, and that's exactly what they need. Jerry Jones is even trying to do the reverse-psychology thing, saying recently "I'm not as down on our cornerbacks as you might think." Uh-huuuuh. Riiiiight. I buy that.
#10 belongs to Washington, a complete trainwreck led by the clueless Mike Shanahan. They'll lose their two highest-paid players this offseason (McNabb and Haynesworth) without getting anything in return, and they'll head into 2011 with Rex Grossman as quarterback unless they get Vince Young, which might be a step backwards. My guess is they'll go after Marc Bulger and maybe a guy like Tavaris Jackson. Shanahan wants to prove that he can win with crap players. Josh McDaniels tried that strategy last year. How'd that work out?
The Skins have needs everywhere, and should go best player available, which looks like Robert Quinn. They don't need an OLB as much as they need a quarterback and a receiver, but it's too early to reach for Locker or Mallet, and they'll be lucky to land a top-5 talent with the 10th pick. Quinn is a no-brainer, even for a guy with no brain.
1. Carolina - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
3. Buffalo - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, WR, Missouri
8. Tennessee - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
9. Dallas - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
10. Washington - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Houston is next at 11, and they promise to take whichever player the Lions want most at pick 13. They'll steal Miller or Amukamara or Quinn if any of those guys fall. They usually draft smart. And with plenty of need for improvement on defense, they'll grab a top-flight pass rusher, since there are no cornerbacks on the board who warrant a pick in this position.
The question is, which pass rusher? Akeem Ayers, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan... Five guys who haven't really distinguished themselves from one another. And not far behind are Corey Liuget, Muhammad Wilkerson, Adrian Clayborn, and Justin Houston. It's going to be a tough, tough decision for Houston. Unless one of the aforementioned 10 guys falls to them, they have a crappy position. I don't have any idea who I would pick if I were them, and I don't have any idea who I think they'll pick.
But if we ask Mel Kiper, it'll be J.J. Watt from Wisconsin. So let's go with that.
Next up in the Vikings, who clearly want a quarterback, but might not want Jake Locker this early. They might make a crazy reach for him, or for Kaepernick or Mallet, but it's more likely they shore up the trenches. That could mean a new franchise left tackle, or adding another pass rusher. They either get the best offensive lineman available, or the sloppy seconds of pass rushers. My guess is they'll take the O-lineman, so they can move Bryant McKinnie over to right tackle, and start protecting their new quarterback, who they'll find either in the 2nd round or maybe in Kolb if they get lucky. Best offensive lineman is a total crapshoot, but I would pick Gabe Carimi.
And with that, the Lions are on the clock, with the 13th pick, for a season that might not even happen. Let me give it some thought, and I'll get back with you.
(Spoiler: it's going to be an OLB).
Thursday, March 3, 2011
It's Been Awhile
Hello.
So apparently it has been like 2 weeks since I wrote something last. During that time I went to Mexico, my son learned to walk, and 13 trades happened in the NBA, including two of the 12 best players being traded from West to East. Football is still at a stand-still, the NFL draft is still 40+ days away, and Miguel Cabrera is still an alcoholic.
I just want to assure you that just because football is done and basketball is boring until the playoffs and I just don't give a crap about march madness, that doesn't mean that I will be completely done writing until next August.
In fact, during my Mexico trip I re-read one of my favorite books, Traveling Mercies by Anne Lamott, and it inspired me that maybe I should be more intentional about writing. Not just spewing random thoughts about sports, but actually writing about stuff. Telling stories. Choosing words carefully. Not just throwing out opinions and seeing how fast I can type.
Back in school people used to say I was a pretty good writer. I wrote some kick-ass haikus if I do say so myself. So since the world of sports really doesn't have a whole lot of interesting stories until the NBA playoffs, I'm thinking about writing just for the sake of writing.
But until then, here are four random thoughts about the NBA, because so dang much has happened over the past 2 weeks that I've gotta say something.
#1 - Carmelo to the Knicks, Deron Williams to the Nets.
These trades happened within hours of each other, but they couldn't have been more different. Carmelo has been a virtual nomad for an entire season, and the subject of more trade rumors than the rest of the NBA combined. Deron Williams was thought to be the rock of a pretty good Utah team, and arguably the NBA's best point guard. Carmelo, on the other hand, is arguably the NBA's most effective scorer, though Kevin Durant might have something to say about that. Either way, it was two of the league's 12 best players (#8 and #10 in my recent rankings) and they dramatically shifted the landscape of the NBA playoffs.
Utah and Denver are no longer teams in the chase for a title in the near future. Both teams are in full-fledged rebuilding mode. Stupid? Probably. But wise to get something for their stars before it was too late. With those two teams out of the equation, but likely in the playoffs, it makes the West a 4 team race.
San Antonio - the 1 seed.
LA - the defending champs.
OKC - the trendy pick.
Dallas - the sleeper.
No one else in the West stands a chance. Portland and New Orleans might put up tough first round battles, but Denver and either Memphis/Utah/Phoenix will be swept away. In the near future, you've got the increasing age of Kobe and Duncan, the likely relocation of Paul and Nash, and the worthlessness of Brandon Roy's knees, thus making the West a completely crappy conference within about 2 years. It might be Oklahoma City and Dallas in the Western Finals for about the next 5 years. And I'm okay with that.
Meanwhile, the East just went from good to great. Miami is already the most stacked twosome since Kobe and Shaq, and the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Boston has 4 stars and a great bench. Chicago has the league MVP and two studs in the frontcourt. Orlando has the league's best big man and a decent but unspectactular supporting cast. Now enter New York, who has two scoring machines and a championship-tested point guard to keep the team focused and give them a defensive mindset for the first time in 15 years. And New Jersey, who won't compete this year but will be ready next year to make the leap into the playoffs and possibly be a tricky team to beat if Brook Lopez progresses.
Two years ago, 7 of the 10 best teams in the NBA were in the Western Conference. Now, after a crazy trade deadline, the opposite can be said.
#2 - Four Detroit Pistons players stage some kind of a walk-out, but then return to the team days later.
What the heck? Really? I heard about this in Mexico are truly didn't care one bit. They are unwatchable and completely uninteresting. I can't believe Rip and Tayshaun used to be so important to me. In fact, the password for my cell phone voicemail is 2232 - Tayshaun's #22 plus Rip's #32. How far they've fallen. Pathetic.
#3 - Kevin Love is three games away from history.
In case you haven't heard, I predicted back in October that Kevin Love would lead the NBA in rebounding. When Bill Laimbeer became an assistant coach with the Twolves a couple years ago, I read a quote from Love saying that coach Laimbeer would help him greatly as a rebounder, and his goal was to win a rebounding title. (Laimbeer did twice, in 85 and 86.)
Well not only is K-Love leading the league, in rebounding, but he's shattering the standard. Right now he's at 15.5 per game, and if he keeps it up he'll have the highest mark since Dennis Rodman in 1991. In the last three games he only has 54 rebounds, so we'll see.
But what's most impressive is the streak of consecutive double-doubles. Right now Love is at 48 straight games, dating back to a November 19th game against the Lakers in which he went scoreless, shooting 0-7. The record since the ABA merger is 51 games, set by Moses Malone in 1979. (Wilt Chamberlain had something like 200 straight double-doubles playing against white guys who were shorter than me.) In all likelihood, Love will break the record in 4 days against Dallas. One of the most impressive records in NBA history, about to be broken by an unknown white guy on a terrible team. Wow.
#4 - Blake Griffin jumped over a car. Kind of.
I don't know if you stayed up til almost midnight to watch the dunk contest two weeks ago, but if you did, you probably regretted it. It was a stupid waste of time.
There are few Michiganders who love Blake Griffin more than me, but I'll even admit that he shouldn't have won; in fact he should have finished fourth. He had the least personality, the least creativity, and frankly did the least impressive dunks. The car thing was cool, but to be honest he jumped over the very front edge of a small crappy Kia. I wanted to see him completely leap over a BMW. It would have been like me jumping over a elephant's tail and saying I jumped over an elephant. Wait, do elephants have short tails? Bad example. But something like that.
Serge Ibaka should have won the contest, and Javale McGee should have got second. But I understand why Blake won. It was in LA, and it was good for the NBA to have him win. I just wish he would have really earned it. It was embarassing for the other guys to completely outdunk him and then lose. And the worst part was seeing Cheryl Miller interview all of them. She is atrocious.
Well, that's all for now. Happy March. Less than a month til I go to the Bahamas!
So apparently it has been like 2 weeks since I wrote something last. During that time I went to Mexico, my son learned to walk, and 13 trades happened in the NBA, including two of the 12 best players being traded from West to East. Football is still at a stand-still, the NFL draft is still 40+ days away, and Miguel Cabrera is still an alcoholic.
I just want to assure you that just because football is done and basketball is boring until the playoffs and I just don't give a crap about march madness, that doesn't mean that I will be completely done writing until next August.
In fact, during my Mexico trip I re-read one of my favorite books, Traveling Mercies by Anne Lamott, and it inspired me that maybe I should be more intentional about writing. Not just spewing random thoughts about sports, but actually writing about stuff. Telling stories. Choosing words carefully. Not just throwing out opinions and seeing how fast I can type.
Back in school people used to say I was a pretty good writer. I wrote some kick-ass haikus if I do say so myself. So since the world of sports really doesn't have a whole lot of interesting stories until the NBA playoffs, I'm thinking about writing just for the sake of writing.
But until then, here are four random thoughts about the NBA, because so dang much has happened over the past 2 weeks that I've gotta say something.
#1 - Carmelo to the Knicks, Deron Williams to the Nets.
These trades happened within hours of each other, but they couldn't have been more different. Carmelo has been a virtual nomad for an entire season, and the subject of more trade rumors than the rest of the NBA combined. Deron Williams was thought to be the rock of a pretty good Utah team, and arguably the NBA's best point guard. Carmelo, on the other hand, is arguably the NBA's most effective scorer, though Kevin Durant might have something to say about that. Either way, it was two of the league's 12 best players (#8 and #10 in my recent rankings) and they dramatically shifted the landscape of the NBA playoffs.
Utah and Denver are no longer teams in the chase for a title in the near future. Both teams are in full-fledged rebuilding mode. Stupid? Probably. But wise to get something for their stars before it was too late. With those two teams out of the equation, but likely in the playoffs, it makes the West a 4 team race.
San Antonio - the 1 seed.
LA - the defending champs.
OKC - the trendy pick.
Dallas - the sleeper.
No one else in the West stands a chance. Portland and New Orleans might put up tough first round battles, but Denver and either Memphis/Utah/Phoenix will be swept away. In the near future, you've got the increasing age of Kobe and Duncan, the likely relocation of Paul and Nash, and the worthlessness of Brandon Roy's knees, thus making the West a completely crappy conference within about 2 years. It might be Oklahoma City and Dallas in the Western Finals for about the next 5 years. And I'm okay with that.
Meanwhile, the East just went from good to great. Miami is already the most stacked twosome since Kobe and Shaq, and the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Boston has 4 stars and a great bench. Chicago has the league MVP and two studs in the frontcourt. Orlando has the league's best big man and a decent but unspectactular supporting cast. Now enter New York, who has two scoring machines and a championship-tested point guard to keep the team focused and give them a defensive mindset for the first time in 15 years. And New Jersey, who won't compete this year but will be ready next year to make the leap into the playoffs and possibly be a tricky team to beat if Brook Lopez progresses.
Two years ago, 7 of the 10 best teams in the NBA were in the Western Conference. Now, after a crazy trade deadline, the opposite can be said.
#2 - Four Detroit Pistons players stage some kind of a walk-out, but then return to the team days later.
What the heck? Really? I heard about this in Mexico are truly didn't care one bit. They are unwatchable and completely uninteresting. I can't believe Rip and Tayshaun used to be so important to me. In fact, the password for my cell phone voicemail is 2232 - Tayshaun's #22 plus Rip's #32. How far they've fallen. Pathetic.
#3 - Kevin Love is three games away from history.
In case you haven't heard, I predicted back in October that Kevin Love would lead the NBA in rebounding. When Bill Laimbeer became an assistant coach with the Twolves a couple years ago, I read a quote from Love saying that coach Laimbeer would help him greatly as a rebounder, and his goal was to win a rebounding title. (Laimbeer did twice, in 85 and 86.)
Well not only is K-Love leading the league, in rebounding, but he's shattering the standard. Right now he's at 15.5 per game, and if he keeps it up he'll have the highest mark since Dennis Rodman in 1991. In the last three games he only has 54 rebounds, so we'll see.
But what's most impressive is the streak of consecutive double-doubles. Right now Love is at 48 straight games, dating back to a November 19th game against the Lakers in which he went scoreless, shooting 0-7. The record since the ABA merger is 51 games, set by Moses Malone in 1979. (Wilt Chamberlain had something like 200 straight double-doubles playing against white guys who were shorter than me.) In all likelihood, Love will break the record in 4 days against Dallas. One of the most impressive records in NBA history, about to be broken by an unknown white guy on a terrible team. Wow.
#4 - Blake Griffin jumped over a car. Kind of.
I don't know if you stayed up til almost midnight to watch the dunk contest two weeks ago, but if you did, you probably regretted it. It was a stupid waste of time.
There are few Michiganders who love Blake Griffin more than me, but I'll even admit that he shouldn't have won; in fact he should have finished fourth. He had the least personality, the least creativity, and frankly did the least impressive dunks. The car thing was cool, but to be honest he jumped over the very front edge of a small crappy Kia. I wanted to see him completely leap over a BMW. It would have been like me jumping over a elephant's tail and saying I jumped over an elephant. Wait, do elephants have short tails? Bad example. But something like that.
Serge Ibaka should have won the contest, and Javale McGee should have got second. But I understand why Blake won. It was in LA, and it was good for the NBA to have him win. I just wish he would have really earned it. It was embarassing for the other guys to completely outdunk him and then lose. And the worst part was seeing Cheryl Miller interview all of them. She is atrocious.
Well, that's all for now. Happy March. Less than a month til I go to the Bahamas!
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