Final Mock Draft ....

The NFL Draft begins tonight amid trade rumors, smokescreens, intrigue and idiots.  It's the one night where Mel Kiper's Hair and a bunch of weed-smoking 22-year old punks come together in a perfect cacophony of fun. It's the one event all year where all 32 teams congregate, and coaches and GMs applaud decisions that will eventually get them fired.  When else will JaMarcus Russell be compared to John Elway, or Patrick Willis be ranked 10 spots below Dwayne Jarrett and Quinn Pitcock?  It's a ballyhoo of errant insight and downright deceit. It's awkward, idiotic, and unpredictable. It's awesome. 

Here is my final 2012 Mock Draft  …

1.  Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - Will be in the 'Best QB' conversation within 5 years. 

2. Redskins - Robert "The Bubble Screen" Griffin, QB Baylor - Will be a backup QB within 5 years. 

3. Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC - All the ballyhoo becomes anticlimactic; Kalil was the pick all along. 

4. Browns - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - Could end up picking Blackmon and then a RB at pick #22, but Richardson is the better prospect and I think Mike Holmgren knows it. 

5. Bucs - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - Best player available meets a huge need; no brainer if he's available. 

6. Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - Ditto. 

7. *TRADE* Jags send this pick to Philly, who gives them #15 and two 3rd rounders.

7. Eagles - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State - Perfect fit in the much-maligned "wide nine" formation. 

8. Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - Just because I would pass on Tannehill doesn't mean Miami will. 

9. Panthers - Luke "Drag Out Of Bounds" Kuechly, LB, Boston College - This pick has to be defense, and Kuechly seems to have the intangibles that teams love. 

10. Bills - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa - Gotta protect the $59 million investment, even if it's a bad investment. 

11. Chiefs-  David DeCastro, G, Stanford - Building upon their strength as a running offense. 

12. Seahawks - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - Seattle's defense is a mess, but they've gotta give Matt Flynn someone to throw to. 

13. *TRADE* With their top 4 targets off the board, Cardinals give this pick to the Jets for #16 and a 5th rounder. 

13. Jets - Mark Barron, S, Alabama - Nice move leapfrogging Dallas, who also wants Barron. 

14. Cowboys -  Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - The offense is stacked; the secondary needs an overhaul. 

15. Jaguars- Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina - Pretty nice when you can move back 8 spots and still get the guy you want. 

16. Cardinals - Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia - Gotta protect the $63 million investment, even if it's a bad investment. 

17. Bengals - Quinton Coples, DE, UNC - They pick again in 4 spots, so they can afford to take the BPA here, which is Coples. 

18. Chargers - Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois - They've got to develop a pass rush, especially since the division now goes through Peyton Manning. 

19. Bears - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU - Sounds like Chicago's incurably worthless defensive line coach - Rod Marinelli - will get to pick whichever defensive lineman he wants at this point. 

20.   Titans - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech - Most mocks have a DT or DE or CB here, but I think Munchak has to go offense. Giving Locker a chance to succeed is Munchak's best chance of keeping his job. Plus, Hill is a stud. 

21. Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama - Between this pick and #17, they'll go CB and DE. It's almost a guarantee. 

22. Browns - Ashlon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina - Just a hunch. I'm not impressed by Baylor's Kendall Wright and I don't see why Cleveland would want him this early.

23. Lions - Dont'a Hightower, MLB, Alabama - I've been beating this drum completely by myself for weeks; I have literally not heard one other person mention Hightower to the Lions. But if Schwartz and Lewand have a draft M.O., it's being unpredictable $and taking whoever they perceive as the Best Player Available, even if, and especially if, it does not fit a need. They want fans to say "Huh??? .... ohh ... okay ... yeah, that might work...!"  

From my Youtube scouting process, Hightower is absolutely the best player available.  To me, he's the 4th best prospect in this draft, behind Luck, Kalil and Claiborne. He's a freaking stud, and I don't know why he's not getting the hype of a top 10 pick. I hope this happens, but I think the pick will probably be a pass-rusher instead, maybe Courtney Upshaw or Chandler Jones.  I'm pretty sure it won't be a CB or OT; Schwartz is stubborn about upgrading those positions in free agency. 

24. Steelers - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis - He could go in the top 10, but he could fall this far. He's a great fit at DE in the 3-4. 

25. Broncos - Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame - The best way to help Peyton Manning is improve the defense; Peyton will be fine if all he has is Decker, Tamme and Willis McGahee's corpse. 

26. Texans - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford - Houston's O-line got plundered in free agency, and Martin helps them patch it up. Protect that investment! (Arian Foster, $43 million) 

27. *FAILED TRADE* Belichick attempts to trade this pick to the Saints in exchange for their wiretapping technology, but the trade is vetoed by David Stern. Reluctantly, the Pats select ...
27. Patriots - Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - Tom Brady's not getting any younger. If you can't play defense, might as well try to outscore the other team. 

28. Packers - Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama - Put this pothead under the tutelage of Charles Woodson for a few years and you might end up with a great pro. He's got the talent. 

29. Ravens - Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin - They've gotta patch the interior of the offensive line and keep Ray Rice happy. Not a sexy pick, but a smart pick. 

30. 49ers -Doug Martin, RB, Boise State - With all the "Kill Frank Gore's Head!" chatter this offseason, it might make sense to find a fresh, explosive companion in the backfield. 

31. Patriots - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State - Back to back Boise players. 

32. Giants - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State - Probably the best player available.  

Who will the Lions take at pick #54? 

My ideal pick would be OLB Lavonte David from Nebraska, or safety Harrison Smith if he falls. But if we spend the first pick on a pass rusher, this pick will be an offensive skill position player. Maybe RB Lamar Miller from Miami.  

One Week Until the Draft .... and Jim Leyland is an Evil Wizard

"Tell me, friend, when did Saruman the Wise abandon reason for madness?"

Those are the words of Gandalf the Grey to his wizard-mentor in the Fellowship of the Ring. Those are also the words that perfectly describe Jim Leyland's managerial style.

Last night, Leyland trotted out a lineup that included Gerald Laird (lifetime .243 hitter, .207 with Detroit in 2010), Ryan Raburn (lifetime .264 hitter, currently 3 for 37 this year, hit .197 last year in April and May), and Brandon Freakin Inge (lifetime .234 hitter, career-worst .197 last year with a .265 OBP which was the worst of anyone in baseball with 200 at-bats, and currently 1 for 10 this year after going 1 for 9 in AAA). That's three of the worst hitters in baseball, all in the same lineup. And what's worse, Raburn was hitting SIXTH, ahead of All Star Jhonny Peralta who batted .299 last year and .317 this year.

From now on, Jim Leyland is Saruman, and that's all there is to it.

12 games into the season, Detroit is 9-3, already with a commanding lead in the AL Central. It's a foregone realization that Detroit will win their putrid division, barring injuries to Verlander and/or Cabrera. But the scary thing is, we could easily be 3-9.

With these inexplicable lineups and the extremely shaky bullpen, there's no reason to think Detroit can continue to win games by scores of 3 to 2, or continue to hit 3-run homers in the 9th inning, or continue to load the bases with 1 out in the 8th and then induce a double play. The fact is, we've gotten lucky. A lot.

With the exception of the 10-0 beatdown of Boston, Detroit had a good chance to lose in their other 11 games. Valverde and Schlereth have both looked terrible, Inge/Raburn picked up where they left off, hitting a combined 4 for 47 (.085 average), and quality young players who can draw walks, steal bases, and play exceptional defense (such as Clete Thomas, Danny Worth, and Ramon Santiago) have either been cut, demoted, or benched, in favor of old, slow, defensive liabilities who can't hit. Worth is literally better than Inge at all five baseball tools - hitting for average, hitting for power, baserunning, fielding, and throwing the ball. In fact, he's twice the player Inge is. And yet, for no reasonable reason, Inge made the roster, and Worth did not.

It's such an old, tired act.

I'm sick of it already, and we've got 150 games left this year.

The good news is, Detroit has the best pitcher in baseball, the best hitter in baseball, and Prince Fielder, who is pretty good too. So despite Leyland's efforts to play minor league softball, the trio of JV, Miggy & Biggy is going to carry Detroit to 80+ wins.

Then we'll see if Saruman's madness continues into the playoffs.

Switching gears, the NFL Draft is a week from today.

(Wait, what, the hockey playoffs are going on? Right ... okay, here's my analysis: Yokvelof Krarninzakov is really skilled, but Miroslaviconz Flarrcofinmov is better, so go Canada.)

So the Draft is a week from today, and the landscape has totally shifted since my Mock a few weeks ago. Luck, Griffin and Kalil are still the top 3 picks, but Cleveland seems to have steered away from Ryan Tannehill with the 4th pick and is mulling Richardson or Claiborne, leaving the other player likely headed to Tampa at 5.

Justin Blackmon seems to have cemented himself as the likely Rams' pick at 6, and it all goes fuzzy from there.

Here are some updates.

-DT and CB are the most loaded and most volatile positions this year. Dontari Poe was the consensus top DT a month ago, but he seems to have fallen behind Cox and maybe Brockers, while Stephon Gilmore seems to have leapfrogged Kirkpatrick and Jenkins (two Alabaman potheads) as the best CB on the board after Claiborne.

-Pass rushers and receivers are all over the place. WRs like Floyd, Hill,Wright and Jeffrey have projected ranges of being picked anywhere from 7 to 27 to 47. Floyd should be safe in the top 20, but Hill and Wright are wildcards that could go anywhere. Almost every team is looking to improve at receiver, but only a few teams are desperate.

No one is really sure if Ingram or Coples is the best pass rusher, with Upshaw and Mercilus not far behind. Then there's Shea McClellin from Boise State and Chandler Jones from Syracuse, who seem to be rising in the final weeks, and might jump into the top 25 or even top 20. Nick Perry and Andre Branch might be slipping into the 30s.

-A few outliers are Ryan Tannehill, the third quarterback to be taken, who could go anywhere from 4th to 8th to 22nd, and safety Mark Barron, who is regularly mocked at 14, 15 or 16, but could go sooner or hopefully could fall to Detroit at 23.

-The class of offensive lineman isn't very strong after Kalil. The elite guards (Glenn and DeCastro) seem to be better prospects than the top tackles (Martin, Reiff, Adams), but all five of those guys should go in the mid-to-late first round. Reiff and DeCastro seem to be the top players at their positions, but probably aren't top 8 material. Center Peter Konz from Wisconsin is also a solid late first rounder.

-That pretty much covers the first round, aside from a couple inside linebackers (Keuchly and Hightower) and a tight end (Fleener). The running backs after Richardson are nothing special, and will make high-risk 1st round picks but decent 2nd round picks.

So instead of laboriously going team by team, let's fly through the Mock and then look at Detroit's options.

1. QB Luck, Colts

2. QB Griffin, Redskins

3. OT Kalil, Vikings

4. Cleveland trades to Jags for #7 and a 2nd rounder next year, Jags take WR Blackmon, Rams panic

5. CB Claiborne, Bucs

6. DT Cox, Rams

7. RB Richardson, Browns

8. DE Ingram instead of QB Tannehil, Dolphins,

9. MLB Kuechly, Panthers

10. WR Floyd, Bills

11. OT Reiff, Chief

12. OG DeCastro, Seahawks

13. OG Glenn, Cardinals

14. DT Poe, Cowboys

15. SS Barron, Eagles

16. Jets trade to Packers for #28 and a 3rd rounder plus next years 2nd rounder, Pack take CB Gilmore

17. CB Kirkpatrick, Bengals

18. OLB Upshaw, Chargers

19. DE Coples, Bears

20. DE McClellin, Titans

21. CB Dennard, Bengals

22. QB Tannehill, Browns

23. Detroit Lions on the clock.

BPA:

MLB Donta Hightower

Needs:

OT

-Jonathan Martin, Stanford

-Mike Adams, Ohio State

CB

-Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama

OLB / DE

-Chandler Jones, Syracuse

-Whiteney Mercilus, Illinois

-Nick Perry, USC

-Vinny Curry, Marshall

C

-Peter Konz, Wisconsin

Lots of good players available who do NOT fit a need whatsoever:

WRs Kendall Wright, Stephen Hill

RBs David Wilson, Doug Martin

DTs Jerel Worthy, Devon Still, Michael Brockers

So who do the Lions take?

First, I think that if Barron, DeCastro, Glenn, Kirkpatrick, Gilmore or Upshaw falls to Detroit, any of those guys will be strongly considered. I also think if an elite prospect who is not a position of need, such as Poe or Richardson, fell to 23, Detroit would take them too.

But in this scenario, I think Detroit sticks to its BPA guns, and take the best player on the board. Donta Hightower.

As for the Lions 2nd round pick, I truly expect it to be another running back, but I'll be happy if they go offensive line or secondary.

Go Lions.

A Few Updates and Thoughts

Congrats to Kentucky on winning the tournament that nobody cares about anymore. Apparently "Anthony Davis" is the best college basketball player in years. I couldn't even tell you if he's white or black. I guess I'll find out next year in the NBA.

Congrats to Baylor's women's team on going 40-0. But here's the more pressing question: if Baylor's women played Kentucky's men, would the score by 40-0 in favor of Kentucky within 5 minutes, or would it take 6 minutes?

Also, Tigers opening day is tomorrow. Verlander against Lester at 1:00 pm. The office is taking the afternoon off to watch the game at Uccelllos. Best. job. ever.

Inge is on the 15-day DL with a fake groin injury that Dombrowski conjured up so that Inge wouldn't make the 25-man team, because he knew that would outrage the fans. But then Jimmy Leyland announced that when Inge returns, he'll be the starting second baseman against lefties (Raburn against righties ... ironically Santiago is better than either of them). And everybody was outraged after all.

Tomorrow's Opening Day lineup is pretty awesome though.

Jackson, CF

Boesch, RF

Cabrera, 3B

Fielder, 1B

Young, LF

Raburn, DH

Peralta, SS

Avila, C

Santiago, 2B

I love Santiago in the 9 hole against lefties. I love Boesch in the 2 spot. I actually like Avila hitting 8th. The obvious weakness is Jackson, but with his speed you have to keep hitting him leadoff for now. If he's still leading the AL in strikeouts by July, they'll have to consider moving him to the 9 spot. If Jackson doesn't figure out how to get on base, I'd like to see Andy Dirks lead off.

Obviously, any lineup with Cabrera and Prince hitting 3 and 4, and Verlander on the mound, is pretty stinkin unbeatable. That's 3 of the 17 best players in baseball, according to ESPN; also, 2 of the top 4, which is just laughably awesome.

It's not a great Top 500 because Joey Votto is 10 spots too low and Mariano Rivera got a lifetime achievement award - he's 50 spots too high. There was plenty of 'popularity contest' going on, like Pedroia being 22 spots better than Kinsler when they're basically the same player, except one guy wears Red Socks.

But I think they were right to put Pujols at #1; he doesn't have the regular season numbers of Cabrera lately, but he did hit .353 with 16 RBIs in the playoffs while winning the World Series.

The biggest outrage on this list is going to end up being Brennan Boesch at #251, behind nine Tigers including Porcello and Peralta ... when they do this list again next year, Boesch will be a top 50 player. He's going to mash 25 HRs and hit for .305 average with 100 runs scored, with good speed and B+ defense. He might be the 4th best Tiger, certainly not the 10th best. Oh well.

So changing gears, did you hear about the Detroit Lions 2011 draft pick who got busted in his car with marijuana? Which one, you ask? Well, how about THREE of them. 7th rounder Johnny Culbreath (who shouldn't even be on the team with that rancid-sounding last name), 2nd rounder Mikel LeShoure (busted twice in a week, tried to eat the bag of weed in front of an officer, will likely spend time in jail), and Nick Fairley, the 14th overall pick who most teams didn't want because of "maturity issues."

Wow. I wasn't excited about the 2011 draft two weeks ago, but now I'm really, really, really not excited about it. Turns out our scouting department just searches for stoners.

I'm actually more disappointed in Schwartz and the Lions coaches than these players. I guess if you're 22 years old and have insane amounts of money and all you do all day is run and jump and get tackled by huge men, you might want marijuana to make yourself feel relaxed and happy. I mean, it makes sense. But isn't the coach's job to teach these guys all the reasons why that isn't a good idea? Like, it's illegal, it ruins your reputation, you are not just hurting yourself but the team, etc, etc. Seems like Schwartz's philosophy of "treat the players like men" backfired.

It's becoming more and more evident that the investments in Best and LeShoure are probably both going to fail. And Fairley is never going to live up to a 14th pick. But the good news is: the NFL is a passing league, and we've got Stafford and Megatron, with Burleson, Titus and Pettigrew, and a pretty good pass-blocking team, so who cares if we've got two injury-prone, weed-eating running backs who we traded UP to draft when we could have waited 100 picks and got somebody better. Running backs are irrelevant nowadays anyway. Mostly. So let's just hope Schwartz doesn't trade up in the second round again and try to fix this problem.

...Go lions.