Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Week 9 Picks

Last week there were 7 teams that were favored by 4 points or more.  Six of those teams won.  Dare I say, the NFL is actually starting to make sense?

With favorites winning outright, and the Pats scoring 45 points, and the Steelers' defense dominating, and Jay Cutler absolutely sucking, it appears things finally are the way they were supposed to be all along.  The Cardinals, Rams and Bengals have each lost 3 in a row to drop from the playoff picture, where they never should have been in the first place, while teams like the Packers and Broncos and Colts are climbing, as I thought they would.  So all that to say, my 47/53 theory may no longer be true.

I went 7-7 ATS and 8-6 straight up, bringing me to 58-58-4 and 67-51.

Here are the week 9 picks:

Chiefs (1-6) @ Chargers (3-4)
Predicted Line: SD by 4

Actual Line: SD by 8

Here's an amazing stat:

The Chiefs have not had the lead once this season.  In their only win, they kicked a field goal in OT.  They haven't actually played a down with the lead in 7 games.

What's really amazing is that they have a better roster from top to bottom than half the teams they've played, including San Diego, who shellacked them in week 4.  The problem has been a ton of turnovers, thanks mostly to Matt Cassel.

I haven't read anything about this game, don't even know who is playing QB for KC, but I like taking 8 points given how bad the Chargers are playing right now.  Bolts 27-23.

Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 2.5 

Actual Line: DEN by 4

Peyton Manning is rolling. The Bengals have lost 3 straight.  But, Cincy is coming off a bye and is at home ... so should I take the points?   Probably not.  Broncos 34-27.

Ravens (5-2) @ Browns (2-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7 

Actual Line: BAL by 4

Since getting Joe Haden back from suspension, the Browns defense has actually been really decent, giving up an average of just 15 points over the past three weeks. Baltimore, meanwhile, is coming off their worst defeat in many years, losing 43-13 to Houston. The Ravens' defense is banged up and missing some key players, but that won't matter against a Cleveland team that can't move the ball through the air.  This line is way too low.  Ravens 30-13.

Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5

Actual Line: GB by 11

I can think of a lot of reasons to take the points ... Arizona's D could force a few turnovers and keep the score low, Peterson could run a punt back for a TD, Fitzgerald could get a garbage-time TD for the backdoor cover ... but then I think about Clay Matthews against that pitiful Cardinals O-line, and I've gotta take the Packers.  24-6.

Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)
Predicted Line: CHI by 4

Actual Line: CHI by 4

I just don't think the Titans have the guys on defense to stop Forte and Marshall, even despite Cutler's erratic throwing and affinity for 1st half turnovers.  Seriously, has any QB ever played worse during a 6-1 start?  Do you realize that he's not even a top 20 quarterback in any of the important stats: completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs, QB rating... but he is right near the top in INTs and sacks?   It's insane that the Bears keep winning.  I think they'll get this one too, 34-16.    Another bad game for Chris Johnson.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 3

Actual Line: MIA by 1

Hmm.  Miami's defense is stuffing everybody who tries to run the ball, but Indy can't run the ball and they know it, so perhaps Andrew Luck will get his 5th win of the season by foregoing the run and throwing early and often.  This is actually a huge game for the AFC Wildcard. I like Indy in a comeback, 26-20.

Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4

Actual Line: WAS by 3.5

Two really lousy defenses against two extremely athletic quarterbacks.  We could see an NFL record for combined rushing yards by two QBs in one game.  I want to take the points and say Redskins by 3, but I question whether the Panthers will have already quit on the season after four heartbreaking losses in a row, including last week's loss which was the most heartbreaking yet.  Carolina was doing a lot of stupid Super Bowl talk back in July and now they probably feel like giving up.  So I'll say Washington by 20.

Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)
Predicted Line: DET by 2

Actual Line: DET by 4

If there was ever a time for Detroit to actually build a lead early and keep it throughout the game, this is it.  Jacksonville has no chance of stopping Calvin, and the Burleson injury is a blessing in disguise because it allows Titus and Broyles to actually play.  Our defense can focus entirely on stopping MJD and let Gabbert throw. That guy is way too inaccurate to make us pay. This should be our first good game of the season.  Lions 37-13.

Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 12

Actual Line: HOU by 10.5

I bet Mario Williams feels pretty stupid after this game.  Texans 31-16.

Bucs (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3

Actual Line: OAK by 1

With two terrible secondaries, this should be a high-scoring, lots-of-big-plays-through-the-air type of game.   I guess I'll take Tampa since they have the better QB.

Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3

Actual Line: SEA by 4.5

I'm taking the Vikings straight-up. I have gut feeling about Adrian Peterson this game.

Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 2.5
Actual Line: NYG by 3.5

Steelers by 6.

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)
Predicted Line: ATL by 6.5
Actual Line: ATL by 4.5

Falcons by 7.

Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 1

Actual Line: NO by 3.5

Eagles by 2.

Go Lions. 

1 comment:

  1. Dave... I'm excited to crush you in fantasy this week. And we had a good start when the San Diego defense outscored Philip Rivers.