Tuesday, September 3, 2013


My predictions for the 2013 NFL season. All spreads taken from Bovada prior to week 1.

Let's begin with the ten team over/unders that I feel most strongly about

Atlanta Falcons
UNDER 10 wins
Why:  Three good teams in their division, defense got a lot worse.
Bet:  $20
Odds: -150

Baltimore Ravens
OVER 8.5 wins
Why:  They have an easy schedule, an elite coach, and this line is 1.5 wins too low in overreaction to Ray Lewis's retirement.  Their defense actually improved.
Bet:  $40
Odds:  -115

Cincinnati Bengals
UNDER 8.5 wins
Why:  On what planet are the Bengals and Ravens considered equal????
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +130

Cleveland Browns
UNDER 6 wins
Why:  Lack of talent, especially at quarterback.
Bet:  $45
Odds:  +145

Detroit Lions
UNDER 8 wins
Why:  Offensive line, secondary, coaching, lack of depth everywhere, and Stafford's intangibles.
Bet:  $25
Odds:  EVEN

Green Bay Packers
OVER 10.5 wins
Why:  Best QB in the league in his prime.  All he has to do is stay healthy and they'll win 11 or more.
Bet:  $40
Odds:  -110

Jacksonville Jaguars
UNDER 5 wins
Why:  Took the under (5.5) last year, and will keep doing it until they get rid of Gabbert.  The guy is a joke.
Bet:  $35
Odds:  -130  

New England Patriots
OVER 10.5 wins
Why:  I have quite a bit of faith in Tom Brady.
Bet:  $45
Odds:  +120

New Orleans Saints
OVER 9 wins
Why:  Ditto for Drew Brees.
Bet:  $20
Odds:  -150

Oakland Raiders
UNDER 5.5 wins
Why:  Would bet the under at 2.5 wins, even despite these crazy odds.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  -200

And here are some team prop bets.  These aren't necessarily indicative of what I think will actually happen (for example, Miami making the playoffs), but rather just based on whether or not I like the value presented by the odds.

Will Atlanta make the playoffs?
Pick:  NO
Bet:  $25
Odds:  +135

Will Baltimore make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $20
Odds:  -105

Will Indianapolis make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $30
Odds:  +145

Will Miami make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $20
Odds:  +200

Will New Orleans make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $30
Odds:  -150

Will Oakland make the playoffs?
Pick:  NO
Bet:  $20
Odds:  -2000

Will Tampa Bay make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +275

Will Washington make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +140

New Orleans wins the Super Bowl.
Bet:  $20
Odds:  +1800

Green Bay wins the Super Bowl.
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +1200

New England wins the Super Bowl.
Bet: $25
Odds:  +1000

Indianapolis wins the AFC South.
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +240

Baltimore wins the AFC North.
Bet:  $50
Odds:  +225

Green Bay wins the NFC North.
Bet:  $40
Odds:  -140

New Orleans wins the NFC South.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  +170

St. Louis wins the NFC West.
Bet:  $15
Odds:  +500

Calgary Stampeders win the CFL Grey Cup.
Bet:  $10
Odds:  +300

Some player prop bets: 

-Aaron Rodgers, $30, +650
-Andrew Luck, $15, +2500
-Cam Newton, $15, +3300
-Josh Freeman, $5, +7500

Most Passing yards:
-Matt Ryan, $10, +1200
-Andrew Luck, $20, +1800

Most Rushing yards:
-Jamaal Charles, $20, +1400

Offensive rookie of the year:
-Gio Bernard, $45, +800

Defensive rookie of the year:
-Dion Jordan, $10, +2000
-Honey Badger, $10, +1000
-Alec Ogeltree, $10, +1000

Now, some player over/unders. I'll do 1 for each NFL team, at $20 each, unless otherwise indicated. All of these have -115 odds.

Arizona -- Rashard Mendenhall, UNDER 750.5 rushing yards

Atlanta -- Osi Umenyiora, UNDER 8.5 sacks
*change this one to $40.  No way this is happening.

Baltimore -- Ray Rice, OVER 1100 rushing yards

Buffalo -- Steve Johnson, OVER 6.5 receiving TDs

Carolina -- Greg Hardy, OVER 8 sacks.  Way over. Make it $40.

Chicago -- Brandon Marshall, UNDER 102.5 receptions

Cincinnati -- Andy Dalton, OVER 15.5 interceptions

Cleveland -- Trent Richardson, OVER 9.5 rushing TDs

Dallas -- Tony Romo, OVER 4400 passing yards

Denver -- Wes Welker, UNDER 90.5 receptions

Detroit -- Calvin Johnson, OVER 1450 receiving yards, OVER 10 receiving TDs, and OVER 100.5 receptions.  That's three OVERs for Calvin at $20 each.

Green Bay -- Aaron Rodgers, OVER 38.5 passing TDs

Houston -- JJ Watt, UNDER 15.5 sacks.  That's way too ambitious.  Make this one $40.

Indianapolis -- Andrew Luck, OVER 250 rushing yards

Jacksonville -- Blaine Gabbert, UNDER 10.5 games started as QB

Kansas City -- Dwayne Bowe, UNDER 1000 receiving yards

Miami -- Ryan Tannehill, OVER 14.5 interceptions

Minnesota -- Adrian Peterson, OVER 11.5 rushing TDs

New England -- Danny Amendola, UNDER 950 receiving yards

New Orleans -- Drew Brees, OVER 4700 passing yards

NY Giants -- Hakeem Nicks, OVER 5.5 receiving TDs

NY Jets -- Dee Milliner, OVER 2.5 interceptions

Oakland -- Denarius Moore, UNDER 750 receiving yards

Philadelphia -- Michael Vick, UNDER 3200 passing yards.  Make it $40.  Pretty sure he'll get hurt or benched.

Pittsburgh -- Ben Roethlisberger, OVER 12.5 interceptions.  Let's also make this one $40.

San Diego -- Ryan Matthews, UNDER 900.5 rushing yards

San Francisco -- Colin Kaepernick, OVER 550 rushing yards

Seattle -- Marshawn Lynch, OVER 10 rushing TDs

St. Louis -- Tavon Austin, UNDER 75.5 receptions

Tampa Bay -- Doug Martin, UNDER 1200.5 rushing yards

Tennessee -- Jake Locker, OVER 13.5 interceptions

Washington -- Robert Griffin III, OVER 14.5 games started

Lastly, a few general prop bets about the season:

Who will be the first head coach fired during the 2013 season?
-Mike Munchak, $25, +500
(The Titans' early schedule is brutal; Munchak will be axed at 2-8)

Will any quarterback record 1000 or more rushing yards during 2013 season?
-YES, $35, +200
(Between Kaepernick, Newton, RG3 and Wilson, it could happen 4 times)

Will any team go 0-16 in the 2013 regular season?
-YES, $20, +2000
(Both the Raiders and Jaguars are strong contenders)

Who will have more sacks, Clay Matthews or Von Miller?
-Miller, $40, -135

Who will have more rushing yards, Ray Rice or CJ Spiller?
-Rice, $30, +155

Who will have more passing yards, Matt Ryan or Tony Romo?
-Ryan, $30, +115

Who will have more receiving yards, AJ Green or Andre Johnson?
-Green, $40, +105

That's it -- a total of 77 bets for a total of $2,000.   Good thing it's not real money.

And just for the heck of it, let's put two hundred on the Tigers winning the World Series at +475.

Go Lions.  


  1. I'm not writing in the same way this year, but here are two unders I would hypothetically take:

    Kansas City

    Russell Wilson is Mark Sanchez 2.0. I don't know why everyone is picking them to win it all; it's such a small sample size! 7-9.

    And I don't buy that KC gets a magical 8 wins better. I see 6-10.

  2. Seattle's defense is pretty incredible .... I agree with you on KC though.