Thursday, October 3, 2013

Week 5 Picks

Week four recap:
10-5 straight up
9-5-1 against the spread

42-21 straight up (66%)
32-27-4 against the spread (54.2%)

Bills (2-2) @ Browns (2-2)
Predicted Line:  CLE by 3
Actual Line:  CLE by 3.5

How stupid did that Trent Richardson trade seem two weeks ago?  Now I look at the Browns and see a great defense, a good offensive line, and enough draft picks to ensure they'll end up with either Teddy Bridgewater or Tajh Boyd next season. (Unless Brian Hoyer keeps winning games like an unstoppable force). Suddenly this might be the AFC North team to watch out for.

The Browns defense has been so good, and the Bills are so banged up on both sides of the ball, that I actually feel like this spread is a good bargain.  The Bills shellacking of Baltimore last week probably brought this line down by a couple points, so I'll take the value.  Cleveland 23-17.

Ravens (2-2) @ Dolphins (3-1)
Predicted Line:  MIA by 1.5
Actual Line:  MIA by 3

With Cameron Wake questionable and likely not playing, this line is too high.  Miami's defense is completely vulnerable without its best player.  Baltimore will rebound from a hideous game in Buffalo in which they accrued 9 rushes for 24 yards to go with 5 interceptions.  John Harbaugh is too good a coach to not make some adjustments.  For example, trading late round picks to the Jaguars for their best offensive lineman, stud tackle Eugene Monroe, was pretty dang ingenious.  Now the Ravens suddenly have a greatly improved offensive line, just by robbing the Jags who are in full-fledged tank mode anyway.  Maybe Jacksonville was trying to copy Cleveland's model of trading their best offensive player and then winning two straight?  Who knows why the hell they did that trade.   But anyway, I'll take the Ravens 31-24.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Titans (3-1)
Predicted Line:  KC by 3

Actual Line:  KC by 3

The Titans are an overtime game in Houston away from being 4-0, but that was with Jake Locker.  Now it's Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over.  The downgrade is substantial.  Locker was shaping up to have a really great season.  His stats don't jump out, but he and Peyton Manning are the only QBs with zero interceptions through the first four games, so that's something.

I have a zero-confidence vote in Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I feel just fine about the Chiefs covering, 23-13.

EDIT - Just ran a marathon this morning, so I'm gonna fly through the rest of the picks so I can go to sleep. 

Jaguars (0-4) @ Rams (1-3)
Predicted Line: STL by 10.5
Actual Line: STL by 12

I'm not convinced the Rams are good enough to cover this spread.  Gabbert finally has all his weapons healthy and/or not suspended. Looks like a backdoor cover.  Rams 24-17.

Patriots (4-0) @ Bengals (2-2)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1.5
Actual Line: CIN by 2

I'm all about Brady/Belichick as an underdog.  Pats 23-20.

Seahawks (4-0) @ Colts (3-1)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3

I'm calling this as Andrew Luck's "Coming Out as Elite" party.  Colts 31-23.

Lions (3-1) @ Packers (1-2)
Predicted Line: GB by 6
Actual Line: GB by 7

Lions haven't won in Lambeau in 345 years. Aaron Rodgers is pissed about being 1-2.  Lions looked great last week and still almost managed to give the game away.  Jim Schwartz is due for a terrible coaching performance.  Stafford generally fizzles against elite QBs.  I just don't have a great feeling about this game.  Packers 34-23.

Saints (4-0) @ Bears (3-1)
Predicted Line: NO by 3

Actual Line: NO by 1

Everyone keeps saying the Saints aren't very good outdoors.  I'm of the belief that if you're good, you're good anywhere.  New Orleans is so much better than Chicago that I have to take them with this tiny spread. Bears looked a little like the wheels may be falling off.  Jay Cutler looked like his old terrible self.  Saints 27-24.

Eagles (1-3) @ Giants (0-4)
Predicted Line:  NYG by 1

Actual Line:  NYG by 1

Remember after week one when people thought Chip Kelly revolutionized football?  Funny how much can change in three weeks.   This game will feature no defense whatsoever, and both teams could end up combining for 100 points.  Could finally be the game where stupid David Wilson does something. Probably not.  Eagles 53-48.

Panthers (1-2) @ Cardinals (2-2)
Predicted Line:  ARZ by 2

Actual Line:  CAR by 2

This is the battle of defenses that are much better than people think.  Arizona's is probably a small bit better, and with homefield, Patrick Peterson shutting down Steve Smith, and nobody able to cover Larry Fitzgerald, this line is baffling me.  We haven't seen much of the good Cam Newton in the past two years, so what's this line all about?   Cardinals 17-13.

Broncos (4-0) @ Cowboys (2-2)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 9

Actual Line:  DEN by 9

By now you've probably heard about how Dallas' D-coordinator is Monte Kiffin, the guy who invented the Tampa 2 defense in Tampa, which Tony Dungy brought to the Colts and consequently Peyton Manning practiced against for all those years.  But does it really matter? It's not like there's a particular brand of defense that Peyton can't dissect.   Home, away, it doesn't matter, I'm not interested in betting against the Broncos unless the line is at least 17 no matter who they play.   Denver 42-24.

Texans (2-2) @ San Fran (2-2)
Predicted Line:  SF by 4.5
Actual Line:  SF by 7

Two great defenses, two quarterbacks who aren't playing great right now, and a really high spread. Guess I'll take the points.   Niners 20-16.

Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3)
Predicted Line:  SD by 7

Actual Line:  SD by 5

Phillip Rivers still has not earned my trust. He can beat the Raiders but I don't think he can clobber them on the road.  Chargers 27-26.

Jets (2-2) @ Falcons (1-3)
Predicted Line:  ATL by 10
Actual Line: ATL by 10 

It's almost too obvious to take Atlanta, but the Jets are long overdue to get blown out and the Falcons desperately need to win.  Time for Matt Ryan to earn his paycheck.  Falcons 31-13.

Go Lions!

No comments:

Post a Comment