Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Week 13 Picks

Week 12 recap:

7-5-1 straight up
6-7 against the spread
4-9 over/unders


117-57-1 straight up (67.2%)
90-77-8 against the spread (53.8%)
34-30-4 over/unders (53.1%)

Not a good week in the slightest, as I made lousy picks, lost two meaningful fantasy games, and the Lions squandered a fourth quarter lead and lost at home to a team that was 0-8 a few weeks ago.   Let's blame it on being in India and move on to week 13.  

Thanksgiving Games: 

Packers (5-5-1) @ Lions (6-5)
Predicted Line:  DET by 4.5
Actual Line:  DET by 6 

It's not announced yet whether Scott Tolzien or Matt Flynn will be the starter for Green Bay, but Aaron Rodgers was officially ruled out.  I think I speak for the entire state of Michigan when I say I'd like to see some significant revenge against Matt Flynn, however:  Tolzien being named the starter would be better for Detroit.  That guy is a joke;  Flynn was competent against Minnesota.  

But the Lions proved against Tampa that they can't be relied on as more than a 2 point favorite against anybody. So let's take the points and hope the Lions don't screw this up.   Detroit 34-31. 
(Over 49.5) 

Raiders (4-7) @ Cowboys (6-5)
Predicted Line:  DAL by 8
Actual Line:  DAL by 10 

Like Detroit, the Cowboys can't be trusted to cover a large spread.  This is a defense that allowed 40 first downs a month ago.  But they will get the win.   Cowboys 26-20. 
(Under 46.5) 

Steelers (5-6) @ Ravens (5-6)
Predicted Line:  BAL by 2.5
Actual Line:  BAL by 3 

Both these teams have overcome terrible starts to now be in Wildcard contention.  The winner of this game will be the frontrunner for the second Wildcard spot and have a chance to take down Cincinnati.  I always like the points in this rivalry, and Pittsburgh is playing better right now.  So I'm taking the upset - Steelers 24-18. 
(Over 40)

Sunday Games: 

Titans (5-6) @ Colts (7-4)
Predicted Line:  IND by 4
Actual Line:  IND by 4

As the "What's Wrong with Andrew Luck?" headlines emerge, it's a good time to take advantage of this small spread.  Indy won by 3 in Nashville two weeks ago;  they should do better at home.  I'll say Colts 31-17. 

(Over 44.5) 

Jaguars (2-9) @ Browns (4-7)
Predicted Line:  CLE by 5
Actual Line:  CLE by 7 

Well, the 2014 Draft has overgone a complete makeover from where it was 2 weeks ago.  The Jags and Bucs have both climbed out of 0-8 holes and now aren't even in last place in their divisions; Atlanta and Houston (both 2-9) currently stand to pick 1st and 2nd in April.  Then there's the 2-8-1 Vikings, the 3-8 Redskins, and a host of 4-7 teams, including the Browns and Raiders.  

Of those teams, only one definitely has their franchise quarterback.  That's Atlanta.  Houston and Tampa have seen enough from Keenum and Glennon that they'll at least be given a chance to compete for the job next year;  Minnesota and Jacksonville are almost certain to take quarterbacks in the 1st round.  Then there's Cleveland, who announced via the Trent Richardson trade that they won't be losing out on a franchise QB like they did in the RG3 sweepstakes;  they'll be packaging their 1st round pick (in the 6-10 range) with the Colts 1st round pick (in the 20s) and likely a 2015 1st rounder to move up and take a QB in the top 3.  

Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville) is still the consensus #1 pick, with Johnny Football, Tahj Boyd (Clemson), Brett Hundley (UCLA), and David Carr's Brother (Fresno St) all possible 1st rounders.   The Jags, Vikings and Browns are the most likely teams to come away with one of these franchise QBs, but anything could happen in the top 5.  A team like Atlanta that doesn't need a QB might come away with freak of nature Jadaveon Clowney with the 3rd or 4th pick, which would be a steal.  

Anyway, there's still a lot of time before April to see how the standings shake out.  In this game, I like the points. Browns 24-20. 
(Over 40.5)

Bucs (3-8) @ Panthers (8-3)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 6.5

Actual Line:  CAR by 9 

That's seven wins in a row for Carolina, since they were 1-3 and I said "Watch out, their schedule is about to get easy."  They'll keep rolling here.  Panthers 30-16.
(Over 41.5) 

Bears (6-5) @ Vikings (2-8-1)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 2.5
Actual Line:  MIN by 1 

I'm not thinking the Vikings actually have any chance of winning. The Lions don't have that much luck. Bears 19-13. 
(Under 49) 

Cardinals (7-4) @ Eagles (6-5)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 3

Actual Line:  PHI by 3.5

It's shocking how much I love Nick Foles.  Eagles 27-20. 
(Under 49)

Dolphins (5-6) @ Jets (5-6)
Predicted Line:  NYJ by 2
Actual Line:  NYJ by 1

Yawn.   Jets by 3 I guess.  
(Over 38.5) 

Patriots (8-3) @ Texans (2-9)
Predicted Line:  NE by 6.5
Actual Line:  NE by 9 

So last week I started three Texans (Keenum, Tate, Andre) against the Jags, thinking they'd easily combine for 30 points, maybe 50.  Instead they combined for 9 damn points.  Ben Tate is dead to me.   So are the Texans, who are flagrantly tanking at this point.   Patriots 63-10. 
(Over whatever the number is) 

Falcons (2-9) @ Bills (4-7) in Toronto
Predicted Line:  BUF by 3.5
Actual Line:  BUF by 3.5

Speaking of tanking ....  we're about two quarters away from the inevitable Fake Matt Ryan Injury.  Bills by 6.
(Under 46) 

Rams (5-6) @ 49ers (7-4)
Predicted Line:  SF by 7

Actual Line:  SF by 8.5

Too many points for such a good Rams defense.  Niners 20-17. 
(Under 42) 

By the way, the Lions' chances of winning a Wildcard are looking extremely slim right now, as the Niners, Panthers and Cardinals are three of the hottest teams in the NFC.   Fortunately, thanks to the sweeping of the Bears, we can go 3-2 in the next five games and still likely win the division, as long as one of those wins is Thanksgiving.    Unless Rodgers returns next week and reels off 4 straight wins, which is absolutely possible.  

Broncos (9-2) @ Chiefs (9-2)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 2.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 5 

Something tells me KC just might get the win.  So I will hesitantly take the points - Denver 27-24. 
(Over 49) 

Bengals (7-4) @ Chargers (5-6)
Predicted Line:  SD by 4.5
Actual Line:  SD by 1.5

I was going to take the points, but since we aren't getting any points, I'll take the home team.  Bolts 23-20. 

(Under 48.5)

Giants (4-7) @ Redskins (3-8)
Predicted Line:  WAS by 2

Actual Line:  NYG by 1 

So much for the Giants making the playoffs.   I'm gonna take the home team again I suppose.  Skins 26-23. 
(Over 45.5) 

Saints (9-2) @ Seahawks (10-1)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 3
Actual Line:  SEA by 6 

Rematch of the infamous 2011 playoff game where 7-9 Seattle beat 11-5 New Orleans at HOME in one of the dumbest postseason games of all time.  I definitely want the 6 points with Drew Brees.  In fact, Saints 33-27. 
(Over 47) 

Go Lions!!  

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