Thursday, August 21, 2014

Over/Unders and Prop Bets

2014 predictions and prop bets.
(All spreads taken from Bovada)

Top Ten Team Over/Unders:

Atlanta Falcons
UNDER 8.5 wins
Why:  Defense is bad, division is tough, and not enough improvements since going 4-12.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  -150

Cincinnati Bengals
UNDER 9 wins
Why:  Andy Dalton, mostly.  And a tough first-place schedule.
Bet:  $25
Odds:  -125

Denver Broncos
OVER 11.5 wins
Why:  Elite quarterback, vastly improved defense.
Bet:  $50
Odds:  -105

Green Bay Packers
OVER 10.5 wins
Why:  Because Rodgers won't miss 7 starts this year.
Bet:  $60
Odds:  -115

Indianapolis Colts
OVER 9.5 wins
Why:  My unflappable allegiance to Andrew Luck.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  -115

New Orleans Saints
OVER 10.5 wins
Why:  Apparently I'm betting the OVER on all the great QBs.  Seems like a logical strategy.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  -125

New York Giants
UNDER 8 wins
Why:  Finally, an UNDER I can support.  I've got these fools pegged for 3 wins.  Eli sucks.
Bet:  $75
Odds:  -125

Oakland Raiders
UNDER 5 wins
Why:  Betting the UNDER on Oakland has never failed me yet.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  +110

Pittsburgh Steelers
OVER 8.5 wins
Why:  Mostly because of coaching, and improved O-line.
Bet:  $40
Odds:  -140

San Francisco 49ers
OVER 10.5 wins
Why:  I've just got a hunch they sweep Seattle, which guarantees they'll reach 11 wins.
Bet:  $20
Odds:  Even

Washington Redskins
OVER 7.5 wins
Why:  I believe in the RG3 comeback year.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  -125

And a couple team prop bets:

Who will finish 2014 with the worst regular season record?
  --NY Giants, at 25:1 odds.    Bet $30.  (Payout would be $750)

Division winners: ($20 each):
  --Washington to win the NFC East, at +375 odds
  --Panthers to win the NFC South, at +450
  --Steelers to win the AFC North at +200, I'll make this one $50
  --Colts to win the AFC South, at -200 odds.  Easy money.

Who will win the 2015 Super Bowl?
  --My pick, the Broncos, are the favorites, at 13:2 odds.   Make this bet $30.  
  --I'll also take the Packers at 10:1 odds and the Colts at 18:1, for $20 apiece.
  --And two longshots:  the Lions at 33:1 and Carolina, at 50:1, for $10 each.

Now onto individual player prop bets.  Let's say these are all $25 each unless otherwise noted.

Most Valuable Player:
  --Aaron Rodgers, 6:1 odds
  --Andrew Luck, 12:1
  --Robert Griffin III, 25:1, for $10
  --Johnny Manziel, 75:1 (just kidding)

Leads the NFL in rushing yards:
  --Andre Ellington, 40:1

Leads the NFL in receiving yards:
  --Antonio Brown, 16:1
  --TY Hilton, 40:1

Offensive ROY:
  --Sammy Watkins, 6:1
  --Mike Evans, 12:1  ($10)
  --Cody Latimer, 33:1  ($10)

Will Peyton Manning lead the league in passing yards, win MVP, and the Broncos win the Super Bowl?
  --Yes, at +2500 odds  ($20)


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