Thursday, September 18, 2014

Week 3 Picks

Followed up a stunning 3-13 week with a 6-10 week, to bring me to 9-23 against-the-spread this season.  Thinking I might just quit here.  Also ended up 7-9 straight up, as underdogs won 7 games outright.  Peyton, Rodgers, and Brees are now 0-6 ATS and only 3-3 straight up.

I did manage to go 9-7 in over/unders, so at least I did something right.   I'm now 20-12 on the season in O/Us, and 15-17 straight up, which is pathetic.  If I can go on a run of being above .500 in about six straight weeks, I may consider not deleting this blog from existence.

Week 3 picks:

Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1)
Predicted Line:  ATL by 5.5

Actual Line: ATL by 6.5

Tampa has lost to QBs Austin Davis and Derek Anderson so far this year.  Common sense says they can't beat Matt Ryan.  But, Atlanta's defense can't be trusted to cover much of anything against a halfway comptent offense.  We're due for a big Vincent Jackson game.  Falcons 24-22.
(Over 45)

Packers (1-1) @ Lions (1-1)
Predicted Line:  GB by 2
Actual Line:  DET by 1 

As a general rule, the Lions should never be favored against Green Bay.  Even if it's only by one point.  I'll say Pack pull out a back-and-forth game, 37-33.
(Over 53)

Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0)
Predicted Line:  SD by 1

Actual Line: BUF by 1 

Ryan Matthews was lost for about a month last week, as were about 15 other relevant fantasy players.  I don't think the Bolts will miss a beat.  I definitely could see a letdown after upsetting Seattle last week, but that seems less probable than Jim Schwartz coordinating the defense of a 3-0 team.   Chargers 27-23.
(Over 44.5)

Cowboys (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)
Predicted Line:  STL by 1.5
Actual Line:  DAL by 1 

Three straight games with a spread of 1 point.  Ugh.  I guess I have to take Romo and the Dallas offense to be able to outscore Austin Davis.  Plus DeMarco Murray is the odds-on favorite to lead the NFL in rushing at this point, especially with AP going to jail and Charles hurt. (And McCoy oddly being platooned with Darren Sproles).   Cowboys 44-34.
(Over 45)

Redskins (1-1) @ Eagles (2-0)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 6.5
Actual Line:  PHI by 6.5

How can you possibly pick against Kurt Cousins right now?!  I mean, yeah it was the Jags defense, but he put up a 109 QB rating with no mistakes last week.  That's good against anybody.  I actually want the Skins 29-26 in a dramatic comeback.
(Over 50.5)

Texans (2-0) @ Giants (0-2)
Predicted Line:  HOU by 3

Actual Line:  HOU by 2 

Copy-pasted from last week:
"After watching Eli Manning in person, I vow not to pick the Giants once this entire year.  What a pathetic sack of crap." 
Texans 24-6.
(Under 41)

Vikings (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)
Predicted Line:  NO by 12.5
Actual Line:  NO by 10.5

There could be no better remedy for the Saints - the most disappointing 0-2 team by far - than to finally get a home game against the drama-drenched Vikings who were forced to willingly bench their superstar player because of media outrage, highlight by losing a major sponsor (Radisson) and admonishment from the state's governor.   (Oh what a surprise, there's an election in 2 months)  

If AP indeed is gone for the year, consider Minnesota in full-fledged tank mode.  Saints enjoy a 38-6 bye week.
(Under 50)

Titans (1-1) @ Bengals (2-0)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 7

Actual Line:  CIN by 7

I never want to lay 7 points with Andy Dalton, but throw in the injury to AJ Green and it's not even close.  Bengals 20-16. 

(Under 43)

Ravens (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)
Predicted Line:  BAL by 1

Actual Line: BAL by 2 

Brian Hoyer looks pretty solid.  Browns 17-16.
(Under 42)

Colts (0-2) @ Jags (0-2)
Predicted Line:  IND by 12

Actual Line:  IND by 7 

Only 7? Really?  I mean, the Jags are losing by an average of 24 points per game so far, and the Colts are suddenly in desperation mode.   Can't make this line high enough.  Indy 44-10.
(Over 45.5)

Raiders (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)
Predicted Line:  NE by 13

Actual Line:  NE by 14.5

The days of me trusting Tom Brady to cover large spreads are done.  Pats 26-20.
(Under 47)

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)
Predicted Line:  ARZ by 1

Actual Line:  SF by 3

Gotta take the points with the homedog in a division matchup.  San Fran's defense isn't the same without Navarro Bowman. Niners 23-21.
(Over 42.5)

Broncos (2-0) @ Seahawks (1-1)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 4.5
Actual Line:  SEA by 4.5

I could see a blowout happening either way in this Super Bowl matchup.  Guess I'll take the points.   Too bad this isn't the Sunday Night game.   Seahawks 27-26.
(Over 49)

Chiefs (0-2) @ Dolpins (1-1)
Predicted Line:  MIA by 3

Actual Line:  MIA by 4.5

Not only is Jamaal Charles out for KC with an ankle, but so is stud safety Eric Berry. And of course stud linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season week 1.  That's their 3 best players.   I'm thinking maybe this spread should be higher.  Fins 27-13.
(Under 42)

Steelers (1-1) @ Panthers (1-1)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 2.5
Actual Line:  CAR by 3.5

Man, Cam Newton sure seems like a douche.  I would hate playing for that guy if I was on Carolina.  This spread seems a little off;  that half a point isn't making sense to me.  I guess Carolina 27-24.
(Over 42)

Bears (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 4

Actual Line:  NYJ by 2.5 

Speaking of spreads that make no sense .... huh?  How are the Jets favored?  What the heck am I missing?  Bears 23-13.
(Under 45.5)

Go Lions!  

No comments:

Post a Comment