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Friday, July 31, 2009

Detroit Lions In-Depth Season Preview: Defense

Part Two: Defense

The 2008 Detroit Lions were the most notoriously bad team in NFL history, and it’s safe to say that their defense was chiefly to blame. They gave up more than 400 yards per game (worst in the NFL) and over 30 points a game (also the worst). They conceded the most rushing yards per game, and no one was even close. It seemed like each and every week, no matter who we played against, someone had a career game. Running backs went over 200 yards, quarterbacks threw 4 touchdowns; even random tight ends seemed to enjoy 2 TD games or gain 150 yards against Detroit. We allowed quarterbacks to throw a blistering 68.4 completion percentage, tied for worst in the league. The team we tied with, Indianapolis, gave up the LEAST passing touchdowns in the NFL - only six all year; that’s the Tampa 2 run to perfection. The Lions? They gave up the third most passing touchdowns - 25; that’s the Tampa 2 run by Rod Marinelli.

The list of ineptitude goes on and on. The Lions had only four interceptions – fewest in the league and not even half as many as Ed Reed had by himself. Which team gave up the most running TDs? Who gave up the highest yards-per-carry? Who gave up the most first downs? Detroit, Detroit, and Detroit. Like I said, the list goes on and on.

But perhaps this statistic is the most telling – the Lions yielded an average passer rating to opposing quarterbacks of 110.9! That’s more than 12 points worse than any other team, and one of the worst marks of all time. In fact, the Lions came dangerously close to breaking all sorts of records of futility on defense. And I’m really glad they didn’t, because the little-known truth is that there were plenty of teams last year who struggled just as badly as the Lions did on defense. The Bengals and Chiefs may have been ever worse. It’s just that their statistical struggles weren’t as exaggerated, and they didn’t just quit halfway through every game.

So what caused the Lions to rank so incredibly lowly in just about every defense statistic? Besides the lack of talent and skill I mean. Well, since you asked, there were a few things:

One – Horrible coaching. I’ll talk about this more later.

Two – No leadership. The Lions had no identity or pride on defense, and can you blame defensive captain Ernie Sims for this? He’s only what, 24 years old? No, once again, the blame goes on the coaches.

Three – Teams running up the score. Some teams did it on purpose, other teams just couldn’t help it. Once the game was decided and coaches sent in their backups, the backups would rip us to shreds. It was humiliating. Once again, I blame this on Rod Marinelli. If you don’t respect the guy roaming the sideline, it’s easy to run up the score without a heavy conscious.

So, looking forward, what is there to say about the new season? How can the Lions recover from such a pitiful season? Actually, it may surprise you to hear that it won’t be as hard as one would think.

The first step has already been taken; Marinelli and his fabulously idiotic son-in-law Joe Barry are history. Who thought it would be a good idea to let a terrible coach hire his son-in-law to coach a defense? Really? Football’s supposed to be a highly competitive industry; if you lose, you’re fired. How did this guy sneak a member of his immediate family onto the coaching staff without anyone noticing? Good Lord, it’s been months since Marinelli has been out of town and he still makes me irate. I have to move on…

When Jim Schwartz was hired shortly after the conclusion of the 2008 season, a lot of people were excited. None of those people were Titans fans, who lost their defensive mastermind and any chance at going back to the playoffs. But us Michiganders couldn’t be happier; sure, we didn’t land a big-name guy like Bill Cowher or Joe Gibbs. Who cares? You have to pay them more and deal with their egos. Schwartz is still relatively unknown and unproven, but he has all the makings of a great coach. He’s smart and tough, and under his leadership Tennessee’s defense outperformed anyone’s wildest expectations. He commands respect and discipline from his players, but at the same time he is likable and approachable. He seems like a cool guy, someone you would want to play for and work hard for; the opposite could be said for Marinelli.

With Barry gone and the Lions needing a new defensive coordinator, Schwartz hit it big by hiring former Chief guru Gunther Cunningham. Just like on the offensive end, he hired a former head coach, but unlike Scott Linehan, Cunningham was actually a pretty good head coach. He had a .500 record as a head coach, but before that he was a great defensive coordinator. A crazy, disgruntled old man with terrible manners. But still a great defensive coordinator.

Gunther has almost 40 years of coaching experience, and none of it was better than those staunch Kansas City defenses he led in the mid 90s. During his first stretch as defensive coordinator, his Chiefs led in the NFL in fewest points allowed as well as highest turnover margin. It’s pretty rare that a defense is able to be stingy and also aggressive; usually turnovers come at a cost of giving up a few huge plays. But Gunther’s legacy is creating smart, disciplined defenses that don’t make mistakes and capitalize on opponent’s mistakes. He hates zone defenses and says his coaching philosophy is “to go after people.” He also used the term “quarterback-hunting.” He wants to ditch the wussy zone crap and turn the Lions into blitzing fiends. He sounds absolutely brilliant!

Let’s just be honest with ourselves; Rod Marinelli didn’t have a clue how to execute the Tampa 2 defense. It works brilliantly if and only if you’re Tony Dungy; but if you’re not, it sucks. The Tampa 2 was a sad chapter in our Lions-loving lives, but rest assured, stand up and celebrate, the Tampa 2 is dead! And that means all those stupid leftover Buccaneer players Marinelli scooped up will be on their way out the door too! This is the dawning of a new era!

What Gunther has in coaching experience and defensive intuition, he certainly lacks in personality. He is about as likable as the Grinch and kind of looks like him too. He’s an angry guy – he was born in Germany during World War II to a military family for goodness sakes. But the Lions have experimented in the past with all these “nice guy” coaches, and look where it’s gotten us. I say it’s about time we hire a hard-nosed grumpy old man to kick some discipline into the defense, and if they don’t like it they can sit on the bench. Gunther is going to bring sacks and interceptions back to Motown and all I can say is y’all are going to be blown away with how improved the Lions defense is in 2009.

Part One: Defensive Line


Last year, the Lions D-line was a mess. We couldn’t get to the quarterback, and we couldn’t stop the run. Usually teams sacrifice one of those objectives to excel at the other; we couldn’t even do a half-decent job at either one. The offseason brought all sorts of new players to the Lions defense, but not much was done to improve upon the defensive line.

By far the biggest news (literally) is the addition of Grady Jackson, the 345-pound monster who was brought in to anchor the defensive line. Jackson is an old man (36) who has battled injuries and drug suspensions in recent years, so let’s keep our expectations low, but for one or two years he should do a nice job in the middle clogging up the running lanes. He’ll certainly be better than Shaun Cody, who is on the Texans now, or even Cory Redding, who is on Seattle. So that begs the question, who is going to start at DT next to Jackson? I mean, don’t get me wrong, I’m glad we let Redding and Cody go – they were lousy - but shouldn’t we have replaced them with two players instead of one? It looks like it will have to be Chuck Darby, for lack of anyone else, but Darby was so crappy last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of the four DTs on the Lions roster push Darby for playing time, and Schwartz and Cunningham have no loyalty to anyone.

There’s Andre Fluellen, who played a little at the end of last season, and Landon Cohen (last year’s seventh round pick), who played in a few games. Also there are rhyming rookies Sammie Hill and Johnny Gill. Sammie was drafted in the fourth round and will be given every opportunity to earn playing time; he’s big enough (330 pounds) and shows good speed. Gill was undrafted and is only good for taking up a spot on the depth chart. And just last week the Lions traded Ronald Curry to the Rams for Orien Harris, an unproven DT from Jamaica. I can't say for sure, but the early reports are that he be jammin.

Defensive end is possibly the most important position on the defensive end - particularly the right end, who is responsible for putting pressure on the quarterback’s blind side. The Lions don’t have an elite guy like Freeney, Peppers or Ware; we don’t even have a mediocre starter like all the other teams do. We got nothing.

There might be nothing more frustrating about following the Lions for the last decade than the complete negligence shown to the defensive line. Matt Millen didn’t see any marketability in a dominant DE, so he just let the position rot while he drafted thousands of wide receivers. Ever since the magnificent Robert Porcher retired, it’s been one crappy Jared DeVries season after another. And I don’t know about you, but I’m sick of it.

The projected starters are DeVries and Dwayne White, but that’s subject to change. There are a couple of young guys hoping for a chance to prove themselves, namely Alama-Francis and Cliff Avril. Crazy Keith is obsessed with Cliff Avril, and just about peed his pants every time the Lions sent Avril on the field last season. I’m not gonna lie, Avril was really good. He’s only 260 pounds and not overly fast, but he has a motor and a heart and that’s all I care about. He’ll never be a dominant, Pro Bowl type player, but he could start and be solid while the Lions take a few years to rebuild their defense. Alama-Francis is from Hawaii and he’s gigantic, but he has done next to nothing in his time on the field – one sack in 19 games. The smart strategy would be to move the Huge Hawaiian to DT on passing downs to try to generate a pass rush from the inside; if he’s used exclusively in that role, that’s okay with me.

DeVries and White are both average and slow, but serviceable. They don't generate much of a pass rush without help from blitzers, and they don't tackle well at all. White led the team in sacks last year with an underwhelming 6.5, but also forced three fumbles and recorded an interception for the second straight season. Jared DeVries has played 118 games with the Lions and has only 16.5 career sacks - two last year - which might make him the least efficient defensive end in NFL history. Over the course of an entire decade of Lions lousiness, that's a terrible average of one sack every seven games! (He also averages one forced fumble every two years and has never intercepted a pass). I don't think any Lions fans would be sad to see him replaced by Cliff Avril, who had five sacks and four forced fumbles in only 15 games last year, playing off the bench. Let's see if Avril can sustain those kind of numbers as a starter, because if he can, holy crap!
Other prospects at DE include Eric Hicks, a ten year veteran with limited skills, and 35 year old Kevin Carter, who isn’t on the team but is being pursued by coach Schwartz and has a history of being a sack-master.

The defensive line at the beginning of the season is probably going to look like this: DeVries, Jackson, Darby and White. But by the end of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jackson as the only remaining starter. And whether the defensive line is terrible again or not, I’m sure we are the only team in the NFL with defensive lineman from Hawaii and Jamaica. So there’s that.

Part Two: Linebackers


Paris Lenin joined the Patriots and Alex Lewis got cut. We replaced them with five-time Pro Bowler Julian Peterson and former Wolverine and two-time Super Bowl Champ Larry Foote.

And don’t forget, Ernie Sims is still on the roster, and he’s still our best linebacker.

So yeah, there is absolutely a reason to get excited about the Lions defense this year. In order to keep up with the rest of the NFC North, it was imperative for the Lions to shore up the linebacking corps. For once, the Lions did what they had to do and even exceeded expectations. Myself and every other Lions fan booed the Stafford pick because we wanted Aaron Curry, but little did we know that negotiations with Foote were already in place. (I still would have rather drafted Jason Smith, mind you, but bygones are bygones).

In his nine year career in the NFC West, Peterson has averaged about 80 tackles a season, factoring in injury-shortened seasons. What I love are the 46 sacks and 16 forced fumbles, proving that Peterson is a fantastic playmaker and blitzer. Cunningham wants to use J-Pete as the centerpiece of his aggressive, attack-style defense, and it's safe to say that Peterson will blitz more than just about any other 4-3 linebacker in the NFL. Peterson gives the Lions three things that they lacked last year: athleticism, versatility, and credibility. He's obviously a superior athlete with speed and sure tackling which is something the Lions haven't had at the strong-side linebacker position, umm ... ever? Thank God we don't have to worry about giving up 200 rushing yards a game this year.

Peterson is also one of the best linebackers in the NFL at rushing the quarterback, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him line up at defensive end on third downs and be used in every possible blitz, stunt and spy package. But the other thing Peterson gives us may be the most important - he's a three time All Pro linebacker and a locker-room leader who knows to how win, he's a legitimate NFL superstar, and he takes enormous amounts of pressure off of Ernie Sims.

The knock on Peterson is his coverage ability, and that's where Larry Foote comes in perfectly. Foote is virtually nonexistent as a pass rusher and isn't a great tackler (63 tackles per 16-game season), but he's perfectly used to his role as an interior linebacker. On the Steelers Foote played alongside elite blitzing linebackers Harrison and Farrior, and provided the security of short coverage against tight ends and slot receivers. Foote is a proven NFL player and that's more than most Lions defensive players can say. What he brings to the table more than anything is a winning attitude; he was a dependable starter on a Super Bowl team and won four division titles. He can be the voice who tells the defense "It's okay to win."

And as good as Peterson and Foote are, Ernie Sims is still the best player on the Lions D. Only now, he doesn't have to do everything. Last year, he was our only linebacker capable of tackling in the open field; he had to chase from the weak-side to the strong side and all over the field and probably had to work harder for his 113 tackles than any linebacker in the NFL. Sims is a natural weak-side linebacker, which means he is the man most responsible for chasing whoever comes out of the backfield. This requires speed and good pursuit instincts, which Sims has. But it also requires help from the strong side, which Sims finally has too.

Believe it or not, the Lions actually have solid depth at linebacker this season. I can't believe I just wrote that sentence. Not great depth, like the Patriots or Giants, but solid enough depth that if one of the three goes down to injury or if Foote doesn't pan out as well as we all hope he does, there are two or three guys who could be plugged in and I wouldn't be too worried. They aren't proven, but maybe that's better than proven losers.

Jordan Dizon was in line to be a starter before Peterson came to town, but don't be surprised at all if he works his way onto the field in certain packages. He has unique skills and is outstanding in coverage (he played safety in college), and has drawn great praise this off-season from both Cunningham and linebackers coach Matt Burke (who coached along with Schwartz in Tennessee for three years.) Dizon is just a cool guy: he's got an economics degree from Colorado, is a sub-par golfer, and grew up in Hawaii where he used to hunt wild boar with nothing but a knife. (True story). Dizon's coverage skills and speed contribute to the versatility that Cunningham covets, particularly on third downs, when Dizon could be subbed in on nickel and dime packages. In fact, don't be shocked if the Lions play some 3-4 on third downs and 4-3 on regular downs; unpredictability is a defense coordinator's best friend.

The other linebacker to keep an eye on is DeAndre Levy, an athletic strong-side linebacker from Wisconsin who Detroit drafted in the third round. Levy will spell Peterson and have a hard time getting on the field, but is great injury insurance and has some wonderful veterans to learn from. Two or three years from now, Levy and Dizon might be perfect complements to Sims if we can hold on to all three of them.

Rounding out the rest of the linebacking corps are: Cody Spencer, who did very little with the Jets last year; Zack Follett, a seventh-round rookie out of U-Cal known for his hard-hitting intensity; Cutris Gatewood, a second year pro who's yet to play in the NFL; and Darnell Bing, an ex-USC linebacker who's on his fourth team in three years. Bing was promising coming out of college but suffered a neck injury in 2006 with the Raiders and has just moved around onto different practice squads ever since - if he's back to 100% he could see some action on passing downs; he is another former college safety. The most promising of these prospects is Follett, who despite being a seventh-round pick was signed to a three-year deal. The Lions must see something they really like in him.

But Follett and Spencer and Bing all those other guys are experiments and depth. For once, we don't have to trot them out onto the field and hope they can produce. We have three proven and excellent linebackers, and the road away from 0-16 begins with them.

Part Three: Secondary


The story in the defensive backfield is similar to the linebacking story: a lot of new faces are going to be in the starting line-up. But the similarities end there. There is no Super Bowl champ or 5-time Pro Bowler. There is no one as good as Ernie Sims. In fact, the three best players on our defense are our three starting linebackers. Not sure whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but at least we have three good players! I know that's a good thing.

But just because our new doesn't mean I am less excited about the changes in the secondary as I am about the changes in the midfield. Just cutting Travis Fisher was a huge thrill; replacing him with proven NFL players rather than practice squad fill-ins is even better. As bad as the entire 2008 Lions squad was, the secondary may have been the weakest of many weak links. They couldn't stop the pass, even on third and 25, and none of them could make a tackle in the open field. Watching Turner, or DeAngelo, or Peterson, or Forte, or whomever it was, break through the line of scrimmage and turn a first down into a 60 yard touchdown because the secondary was too slow and stupid to make a tackle was just downright infuriating. The Lions defensive backs picked off only three passes last year. That's pitiful. They should be able to do that in a single game. Especially considering they got to play against some pretty crappy quarterbacks. But no matter how bad an opposing offense was, the Lions defense was always worse. This year, that is going to change. It really is. It begins with the linebackers, but the secondary will be improved as well. There is a lot of competition and ambiguity in the four starting secondary positions, and as training camps progresses it will be interesting to see who nails down those starting gigs and who disappoints.

Let's begin by looking at the all-important cornerback position. Leigh Bodden came in last year and was supposed to be the Lions savior; instead he did as close to nothing as humanly possible (1 interception in 16 games, crappy tackling) and was sent away after one year. Now we have three guys in a similar position, each coming in from another team with hopes of helping turn around the 0-16 trainwreck.

Phillip Buchanon. Anthony Henry. Eric King. Get used to those three names, and forget all about the wretched Travis Fisher and Brian Kelly all the other no-talent ass-clowns who made our lives miserable for the past several years. It's a new year, and fortunately, it's a brand new secondary. And at corner, it's a three way battle between Buchanon, Henry, and King.

Phil Buchanon was signed to a two-year contract and seems to have the best chance at a starting gig. He was drafted seven years ago in the first round and played three really good years with the Raiders before being traded to Houston. That's when his career fell apart; in less than two years he went from one of the best CBs in the NFL to being cut by the Texans. No injuries, just inexplicable badness. He's played the past two seasons for Tampa, and done okay; he's a speedy guy, with good hands and adequate size. But for some reason, he just doesn't play well during games. I once heard him described as "the Kwame Brown of the NFL." Yikes. Like it or not, he's going to be penciled in as a starter, and that won't change unless both of the next two guys unseat him in training camp.

Anthony Henry is an eight-year veteran, with four years on the Browns and four with the Cowboys. He has 29 career interceptions and averages about 50 tackles per season, not bad from the cornerback position. Henry was traded straight up to the Lions for Jon Kitna, the disgruntled quarterback who was put on season-ending injured reserve last year despite his insistence that he wasn't even injured. (Remember that? That was some funny stuff.) Henry's skill-set makes him versatile enough to play corner or safety; the Cowboys wanted to move him to safety last year but their cornerbacks kept getting hurt. Schwartz keeps talking about moving Henry to safety, but the surprisingly great play of rookie Louis Delmas and veteran Marquand Manuel makes me think that Henry will remain at CB, where depth is more of an issue. Henry's a hard-hitter with good ball skills, but lacks the speed to play in isolated coverage. In Marinelli's Tampa Two, Henry would be asked to chase guys like Steve Smith down the sideline and try not to get burned; in Cunningham's attack defense, slower corners like Henry should get a lot more help from the safeties and can be more useful in run support.

Eric King is a four-year pro who played on Schwartz's Titans for the past three years. He is a career backup who is yet to intercept a pass, record a sack, or have more than 30 tackles in a season in his young career. However, King is loaded with potential and understands Schwartz's defense. He gives us better depth at cornerback than we've had in a while and will probably fill the nickelback position on obvious passing downs, unless he has a great camp and earns a starting role.

Despite these three additions, cornerback was identified as a primary area of need for the Lions in the 2009 draft... and so of course they did not draft any. (Makes the late-round WR and RB picks who won't play look even more pointless, but that's the Lions for ya.) Keith Smith and Ramzee Robinson are back from last year, and Dexter Wynn was brought in immediately after Brian Kelly was cut. None of these guys are very meaningful as cornerbacks, but they will all be competing for playing time on special teams and possibly participate in dime packages. Just yesterday (7-28) the Lions announced the signing of CB William James, formerly known as James Peterson. Under his old name he was a contributing member of some pretty good Giants and Eagles defenses, but now he has a new name and is buried on the Lions depth chart. My guess would be that Keith Smith fills in the #4 CB spot on the depth chart, but it's all up for grabs in training camp.

The Lions have always run a pretty unconventional scheme when it comes to the safety positions. There is no "weak" and "strong;" rather, it's just two interchangeable safeties playing on the left and right sides. Last year it was primarily Bullocks and Pearson, neither of whom played well at all. There was also a lot of Dwight Smith, who played even worse, and the occasional sighting of Gerald Alexander, who also played badly. Notice a trend?

Schwartz has always preferred the philosophy of having a 'right' and 'left' safety, instead of weak and strong, so the Lions will continue to operate that way for the most part. But there will be changes. There has to be changes.

Marinelli's motto with the defense was always "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Problem was, it was broken, he was just too damn stubborn to realize it. Our new coaches are smart enough to recognize when something is smashed to shitty little pieces (like our 2008 defense), and they aren't going to lie to themselves. And that's why I am starting to absolutely love Louis Delmas.

At the time, I hated it when the Lions picked him 33rd overall in the draft. We needed linemen on both sides, and a linebacker. Our safeties were bad, but they weren't our biggest area of concern. I thought the Delmas pick was one of those Millen-style "Let's draft a guy from a local college and hope it makes all the fans excited" picks (like when Millen used to pick GVSU guys every year in the sixth round). But all the analysts (and Crazy Keiths) informed me that Delmas was the top safety in the draft, even if he did go to Western Michigan. And then I watched a few tapes of Delmas, and heard the coaches rave about him, and read the articles about his uncanny ability to diagnose plays immediately and his ferocious hitting and his ballhawking skills that remind everyone of Ed Reed. "Ed Reed only faster" reported one scout. That was enough for me; I'm sold.

A few months ago I wrote that it would take the coaches til halfway through the season to realize that Delmas should be starting. Apparently I underestimated Gunther and Schwartz. They seem to be much smarter than their predecessors, because Delmas has already been named the starter at free safety going into week 1. Even though he is a rookie, I'm pretty sure Delmas will be the fourth best Lion, and best non-linebacker, on the defense.

Hear me out: I know you're going to think this is an exaggeration, but Louis Delmas has many striking similarities to the three best safeties in the NFL: Reed, Bob Sanders, and Troy Polamalu. They are all effective against the pass and the run; they are all hard-hitters and extremely aggressive; and they are all super smart and know what the quarterback is going to do before he does it. Read any scouting report on Delmas and the only weakness you find (besides a slight lack of size) is this: a little too aggressive, sometimes overpursues. That's a bad thing at the linebacker or cornerback spot, but a brilliant thing at free safety. Aggression is the name of Gunther Cunningham's game. If Julian Peterson is the most versatile weapon Gunther has to work with, Delmas is second. I expect Louis to have at least 3 or 4 picks this year, 50 or 60 tackles, and at least 2 or 3 sacks. He's going to be all over the place. By the end of 2009, he will be every Lions fan's new favorite player. He's already mine.

Strong safety is a position that's pretty much up for grabs. Gerald Alexander was traded to the Jags; Dwight Smith was cut; Daniel Bullocks remains, as does Kal Pearson. The job is basically a competition between Bullocks and Pearson, but if neither guy earns the job outright, Schwartz won't be afraid to entertain thoughts of Marquand Manuel or Stuart Schweigert. The word from camp is that Pearson is practicing primarily with the first team defense, and Bullocks has fallen to third string behind Manuel, who started at safety for a terrible Denver defense last season. Schweigert is an interesting fit; he plays a sort of deep center field against the pass, but is terrible against the run. That complements Delmas quite well, but I doubt we'll see Schweigert in any formation other than deep prevent.

One thing's for sure when it comes to the Lions secondary: the options are pretty much limitless. Schwartz and Cunningham can put their brilliant defensive minds together and brainstorm all sorts of ideas; Delmas can be used in everything from one-on-one coverage to run support. Henry can play cornerback or safety. The Lions hope to be able to change their defense from week to week to adjust to their opponent; throw blitzes at easily flustered quarterbacks, stack the line against great running backs, etc. With this secondary, plus the versatility of three really good linebackers, they just might be able to accomplish this.

Or, maybe not.

Time will tell.


Part Four: Summary and Final Thoughts


Everyone in the Lions camp, from Schwartz to Stafford, from Calvin to Ernie and from Cunningham to Linehan and so many of the players they have recruited this season, has a common goal of reclaiming pride in Detroit and improving upon the worst season in NFL history. The challenge is tremendous, but that's what makes it alluring. Guys like Foote and Grady Jackson came to Detroit when they could have played elsewhere, because they want to be part of this turnaround. They are embracing the challenge. Jim Schwartz is embracing the challenge. The entire state of Michigan is embracing the challenge.

And it beings with the defense. It really does. Because Schwartz is the new head coach and his background is all defense, that will be the point of emphasis on the entire team. The Lions' "identity" if you can call it that, will be (hopefully) a team that plays tough, aggressive, opportunistic defense. Come week one, there will be no more than four returning starters from last year's dreadful season. By October, that number could be down to just one. Change has come indeed. If you can't get excited about this new Lions defense, this new coach and all these new playmakers, are you really a Lions fan? 0-16 is not the time to despair; don't give up, don't ever give up. The Lions will arise from the ashes like a phoenix and it could happen as soon as 2009.

To wrap up my in-depth analysis of the 2009 Detroit Lions defense, I'd like to tell this true story: according to an article in Sports Illustrated many years ago, new Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham holds the unofficial NFL record for most times (118) using the f-word in a 40-minute practice.

So even if we don't allow over 500 points and 6500 yards this season, at least our defense will hold at least one record. And that's something we can all be proud of.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Detroit Lions In-Depth Season Preview: Offense

This is part one of a two part series I am writing previewing the upcoming Lions season. This section focuses on the offense.


In his brief stint as a head coach in the NFL, Scott Linehan's record was an abysmal 11-25. He took over a relatively good St. Louis Rams team in 2006 and plunged a talented offense into oblivion. He was disliked by nearly all of his star players, and made the controversial decision to bench his Pro Bowl quarterback just out of spite. He lost 17 of his final 20 games. Simply put, he was a terrible head coach.

Yet for some reason, after he was fired in 2008, several teams pursued him as an offensive coordinator. And of course, the Lions won the Scott Linehan sweepstakes. It made me wonder, were all the other teams just pretending to want him so they could sucker the Lions into actually hiring him? It’s certainly possible.

When I first the news of the Linehan hiring, the following three thoughts went through my mind in sequence:

“That crappy Rams coach?”

“Wait, I thought we just rebuilt our entire offense around the zone blocking scheme, why did we bring in an aggressive spread-offense guy???”

And then …

“Maybe this will work out brilliantly and we'll make the playoffs!"

Remember, I’m a Lions fan, so I’m prone to being a moron. Getting our hopes up and having them crushed is what makes us true Lions fans so hardcore. So here I am in the summer of 2009 with my hopes officially up and ready for the crushing. (I’m actually really giddy about the Lions defense, but I’ll talk about that later.) For now, I’d like to discuss Linehan, Stafford, Megatron, Gosder Cherilus and the hopefully improved, though probably still stagnant Detroit Lions offense.

Scott Linehan has over 15 years of coaching experience at the college and NFL level as a wide receivers coach and a quarterback coach. His most successful season was 2004 with Minnesota, when he coached a certain Daunte Culpepper to a 4700 yard, 39 TD, MVP-caliber season. Linehan earned a reputation as one of the most aggressive offensive coaches in the league, and helped nurture a young Randy Moss into the most unstoppable receiver in the NFL. The Rams hoped that his history would bode well with their personnel; unfortunately, Scott Linehan the head coach was a complete disaster.

But it has been proven over time that just because someone is a terrible head coach, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will be a terrible assistant coach. Take Marty Mornhinweg. Marty is hands-down the worst NFL head coach I have ever had the displeasure of watching, and he had a lot of competition. Every decision Mornhinweg made as the Lions coached seemed to be even stupider than the last stupid thing he did, until it all climaxed when he won the coin toss in overtime and elected to KICK, rather than RECEIVE, the football. What Lions fan could ever forget that splendid moment in the annals of idiotic decisions? But somehow, after compiling an unfathomably bad 5-27 coaching record (SERIOUSLY, 5-27???) he was hired to one of the best teams in the NFL, the Eagles, and has flourished as an offensive coordinator. It’s true.

Now it’s absolutely impossible than Linehan is a worse football coach than Mornhinweg, so all I’m saying is there’s a chance that our offense does well. Okay, I know we don’t have the talent that the Eagles have, but still, there is a possibility!

Part One: Quarterback

As we all know, the big question mark concerning the Lions’ offense during camp will be the quarterback position. How is Stafford developing, and who will start opening day? All the reports are that Stafford looks great; his footwork and release and arm strength all appear to be remarkable. But we already knew that. That's the reason the Lions drafted him first overall and are paying him $70 million dollars. What I would like to hear is how Stafford's accuracy is these days? How’s his ability to read complex NFL defenses? Does he stay in the pocket and go through his reads, or does he bail out and take the sack as soon as he feels flustered? Basically, is he the next Harrington, or is he the next Matt Ryan?

Well, I think we can all agree that Stafford can’t possibly be as bad as Joey Harrington was. But I’m also relatively sure that he won't have the rookie season Ryan, or even Joe Flacco had last year. He's not as "NFL-ready," to use the misunderstood cliché. People say that because Stafford played in the pro-style formation at Georgia, he will make a seamless transition to the NFL game. Two reasons why this isn’t true: one – he played against far inferior defenses, and two, he was surrounded by so much freaking talent that he could have played in the flying-V formation and it wouldn’t have mattered. Stafford is an NFL pupil at this point, and that's one of the three major reasons why he won't be starting week one.

The second reason is the aforementioned relationship between Daunte Culpepper and his new offensive coordinator. Both men enjoyed the best year of their career when they were working together; Culpepper understands the offense Linehan wants to run and Linehan trusts Culpepper to the core. It also helps that Daunte is in the best shape he's been in since 2004, (reportedly he has lost 30 pounds and no longer looks like an overweight linebacker.) I'll believe it when I see it, but I sure hope it’s true.

The third reason why Culpepper should and will start under center in week 1 is the Lions offensive line, or lack thereof. I’ll talk more in depth about this later, but for now let me just say this: letting Daunte absorb most of the shellacking at the beginning of the season while Matt stays clean and injury-free on the sidelines might be a good idea. Give the O-line a few weeks to mesh and hopefully learn how to pass protect, otherwise our future franchise quarterback might become another mental case with happy feet and panicked eyes who spends all of his time in the pocket waiting to be sacked. A few years from now, if Stafford has become a horrible quarterback but constantly refers to himself as “Matty Blue Skies,” I might just gauge my eyes out and become a soccer fan. (That was a loosely-veiled reference to Joey Harrington, in case you missed it).

My personal take on the Lions quarterback situation is that I'm completely torn. I know Daunte gives us a better chance to win games this season, and for the three reasons I just mentioned I would like to see him start the season. But how can you pay a kid $72 million to hold a clipboard? Do rookies really learn that much from watching, or do they need on-the-field experience to develop into real NFL players? I’m not sure – I think it depends on the player, and if you have what it takes to be a real NFL quarterback, it’s just a matter of getting your opportunity. Stafford will certainly get an opportunity at some point this season.

But like I said, I think Daunte should and will start week 1. So when should the change-over happen? Well it depends on how Daunte is playing, first of all. And we won't know that until it happens. What if Culpepper has an unlikely renaissance season and has the Lions off to a 3-2 start? (With losses to the Saints and Steelers being a given.) Then Stafford has to wait a while longer, doesn't he? And what if Daunte plays the way he played last year (not unlikely, by any means)? The Lions would begin 0-4 or 0-5, and the chants for Staf-ford-Staf-ford! would be absolutely crazy at Ford Field, and Schwartz won’t have a choice but to throw the poor kid to the wolves.

To me, there is one ideal game to plug Stafford into the starting lineup, whether Culpepper is playing great or horrendous, and that's week 8 against the Rams. It's a home game, against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, AND it comes after a bye week. It’s a perfect situation whether we are 3-3, 2-4, 1-5 or 0-6. If we’re any better than that, leave Culpepper in for Peter’s sake. But if you give a quarterback, even a rookie like Stafford, two weeks to prepare for the Rams defense, he better destroy them. And then he should have a boost of confidence to help him for the next three weeks after that, against three more sub-par pass defenses. Then all Stafford has to do is win around half of the remaining games (which are by far the easier part of the schedule) and we could be in wild-card contention. Stranger things have happened.

Part Two: Offensive Line

Pardon the terrible joke, but for the last two decades the Detroit Lions offensive line has been just plain offensive. Jeff Backus is back for another ho-hum year at the all-important left tackle position, although he was given a slight scare when we considered drafting Jason Smith and moving him to guard. Backus is not as good as his contract indicates; in fact, last I heard he is the highest paid offensive lineman to never play in a Pro Bowl. Way to go Matt Millen! Jon Jansen, a ten-year veteran and former Wolverine, signed with the Lions a few months ago after being released by Washington. Jansen was a heck of an offensive tackle for about six years before breaking his ankle in 2007; he’s never been the same since. The Lions took a gamble hoping that he’s back to his old form, and if he is, he would probably be our best starting lineman.

There’s a danger if Jansen does start though: his natural position is right tackle, and he’s probably not a good fit anywhere else. If Jansen plays right tackle though, that moves last year’s first round pick, Gosder “Wait, Who Am I Supposed to Block Again?” Cherilus to either the bench or to the left guard position. Cherilus was drafted solely for his experience in the zone-blocking scheme, which would be a great fit with Kevin Smith, except for the fact that it doesn’t work worth a crap. Even with a broken ankle, Jansen is probably better than Cherilus; the thing is, giving up on our first-round pick after only one year isn’t a very good idea. Moving Gosder to guard doesn’t work; if he’s a bad tackle he’s going to be a bad guard, and we have better guards than him anyway. So what should we do? Rather than moving anyone around, I think it’s wise to bring Jansen in off the bench periodically, and then wait for one of the starters to get hurt, in which case Jansen can start just about anywhere.

The other big news on the offensive line is the contract extensions of right guard Stephen Peterman and center Dominic Raiola. I’m excited about Raiola, one of the most underrated players on the Lions and a pretty good center. I’m just plain puzzled about Peterman. What do they see in him? Since when does being crappy at both pass protection and run blocking earn you a bigger contract? He’s a former third round pick from St. Stainlaus College (WHAT?) who was cut after two years on the Cowboys’ practice squad; so yeah, I guess that’s the kind of guy the Lions want to build a team around.

At left guard the Lions have Daniel Loper furiously competing with such shitcakes as Damion Cook, Manny Ramirez (not the baseball one), and Matt Lentz. Loper’s a guy not too many Lions fans have ever heard of, but believe it or not he’s one of the biggest reasons why I am excited about the Lions this year. The Lope (that’s what I call him) came over from Tennessee, following coach Schwartz; he never started a game there but is big enough and fast enough to play any of the five positions. Schwartz loves his work-ethic and tenacity, and those are two words we don’t often hear around the Lions locker-room. If Schwartz loves him, I love him too. I believe in Schwartz. In camp, Loper has reportedly been getting most of the first-team snaps at left guard, and although there’s no official depth chart, it seems likely that he will stay ahead of the competition simply by not being a piece of shit. I believe in The Lope!

You would certainly think that after going 0-16 and failing miserably to run the ball and giving up the second most sacks in the league, the geniuses who run the Lions would tear the O-line to shreds and begin again. You would think, but instead they took the opposite approach. The word continuity is being thrown around a lot in a good way, and I can sort of understand where they’re coming from. Sure, if you have the same core of lineman protecting the same quarterback for years, everyone’s going to know their role and become comfortable and play as one unit. The Patriots and Colts do this to perfection. But there’s one key difference between the Lions and those two teams. Yup, you guessed it. Talent.

I’ll give these guys the benefit of the doubt for two or three games, but if our line looks as bad as it usually does, I’m going to spend the latter part of the season bitching to Crazy Keith about how we should've drafted Jason Smith and saying things like “Continuity be damned!” What the Lions have lacked for decades is the key to every great offensive line: a dominant left tackle and two guards who can overpower defensive tackles. Can Backus improve his game and can we count on The Lope? Time will tell, but don’t get you’re hopes up.

But hey, here’s a reason to be semi-optimistic. As I mentioned earlier, by playing Culpepper instead of Stafford at the beginning of the season, our offensive line can work out the kinks and not risk the death of our new quarterback. Culpepper can basically be a stunt man for the first several weeks and absorb all the big hits when Gosder neglects to lay a finger on a blitzing linebacker or Peterman gets mauled to pieces. And heck, maybe when Stafford becomes the starter, we can move Culpepper to offensive line.

Part Three: Running Game

I am a believer in Kevin Smith as a long-term solution for the Lions at running back, even though I probably shouldn’t be. He doesn’t have blazing speed or great power or really anything special, and he relies on the same predictable moves too much. His hands aren’t great, his blocking isn’t wonderful, and really he isn’t great at any one thing. But neither are a lot of the best running backs in the NFL. It’s the combination of speed and power, and the intangibles like vision and balance that make good running backs great. Smith has the desire to be great (something no Lions back since Barry has had) and has vowed (on his blog) to be much better than he was last year. One thing that will help is Maurice Morris, a reliable and legitimate #2 running back to take some pressure off Smith and power some of those short-yardage plays. Morris won’t help Smith’s fantasy value at all, but I’m more concerned with his real life value. Establishing the run and converting on third downs have been struggles for years and years, and Morris will help in both respects. Morris might actually be the Lions’ best non-rookie offseason acquisition on the offensive side.

Tatum Bell and Rudi Johnson are long gone, Aveion Cason and Brian Calhoun are back again, and the Lions added a pair of rookies, Aaron Brown and Antone Smith, who will compete for spots on the roster. None of these guys will make much of an impact with Morris is in town, and we’ve got him for 3 years (so I have no freaking clue why we wasted draft picks on running backs that will never play.) Brown was hoping to make the team as a return specialist, but now that the Lions traded for Dennis Northcutt that idea is pretty much shot. Antone Smith was a stud in college, but was undrafted. Calhoun sucks, and Cason sucks too.

The real story at running back is obviously Kevin Smith. Last year he carried the ball 238 times (quite a lot considering Rudi Johnson started the first seven games) and also caught 39 balls. He had eight TDs and finished with just under 1000 rushing yards. Although Smith will start every game this season and his carries will be increased, he won’t skyrocket up to a Turner-like 400 carries because of Morris’s stability and experience as a runner. I expect Smith to see about 290 carries and 50 catches, and if he keeps his rushing average above 4 yards (an impressive feat considering the line he is working with), he should be above 1500 total yards from scrimmage this season. That would be a beautiful thing. It’s tough to project touchdowns because Morris or fullback Jerome Felton might steal goal-line carries, but I think Smith will have more than the 8 TDs he had last year, if nothing else because the overall offense will be better. A running back with 1500 total yards and 10 scores? Don’t look now, but I don’t think we’ve had that since a certain #20 retired.

Smith is undoubtedly the second best player on the Lions offense, and he has a lot of motivation this season. Last year, several of his fellow rookies, including Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Steve Slaton, had psychotically good seasons, and are now being projected as first round fantasy picks. Smith is the kind of guy who cares about where he is picked in fantasy football. He wants to upstage these guys, particularly Forte who showed him up in the NFC North last year. He wants people to talk about how they should have picked him in the first round, instead of the third. He’s an emotional and proud player, and for one thing, he seems to be more ticked off about the whole 0-16 thing than anybody else. If anyone on the team is going to make sure we win at least one game this year, it will be Smith, who still has never celebrated an NFL victory.

Part Four: Passing Game

Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey quit in the middle of last season and are now both in the AFC North; rather than replacing them with the Poop Club (Standeford, Middleton, Rodriguez, and whoever the heck else we had last year) the powers-that-be wisely cleaned house and brought in a brand new crop of wide-outs to hopefully rejuvenate a passing offense that was mostly pathetic last year.

There’s Bryant Johnson, the underperforming and disappointing ex-49er. Ronald Curry, the former college point guard at UNC and Oakland Raider bust. Derrick Williams, a rookie of out Penn State with lightning speed and an injured hamstring. And there’s Dennis Northcutt, slot receiver and former Jaguar who doubles as an experienced kick returned. These four guys are competing for the same honor, lining up opposite from a future legend, a physical freak and the best wide receiver in all of football: Calvin Johnson.

True, in my fantasy rankings I have Megatron ranked third. That doesn’t mean he isn’t the best. Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson and plenty of others are very, very good, but no one is in the same realm as Calvin physically. And he doesn’t just have the unbelievable combination of size and speed that no wide receiver in the NFL has ever had – he also has hands. Amazing hands. His route-running and deviousness and ability to get open in triple coverage set him apart. He is the best. I don’t see any reason, other than an injury, that he won’t improve upon last year’s marks of 1331 yards and 12 TDs, and he will absolutely improve on the 78 receptions. Megatron being snubbed for last years Pro Bowl was utterly egregious, and I hope that out of spite he crushes all of Jerry Rice’s single-season records and then refuses to go to the Pro Bowl. What the hell does a wide receiver have to do to make the Pro Bowl? Lead the NFL in touchdowns and finish top five in yards, all while playing with the inept Dan Orlovsky on a winless team with no other offensive weapons, while fighting off triple coverage at the age of 23? Is that not good enough??? Well, then again I guess Steve Smith deserved it; I mean, he did have 90 more yards than Calvin, so forget that he only had HALF AS MANY touchdowns – those 90 yards must have been pretty stinking special. Especially considering Smith plays alongside one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and started a fistfight with his teammate, yeah he really deserved to be honored. If Calvin breaks his neck week one and catches two passes all season, he deserves to be in the Pro Bowl just as a make-up call. …Wait, did I just jinx our season? … We’re screwed!

(On a side-note: what are the chances that 20 years from now, the Lions will have had the greatest running back to ever play AND the greatest receiver to ever play? At least 15%? I don’t think Calvin will get near Jerry Rice’s records, but Barry doesn’t have the yardage or TD records and there’s no question that he’s the greatest RB of all-time. Calvin could have a career similar to Moss’s and TO’s, and by not being an ass he might be even better. He has all the physical tools. He’s amazingly fun to watch. I’m just saying, would you rather have five Super Bowls and a history of boring loser players (Pittsburgh) or have zero Super Bowls but watched and cheered for the two greatest non-quarterback players on offense ever (Detroit)?)

Anyway, back to the new receivers. Bryant Johnson, Curry, Northcutt, and Williams.

It appears that Curry is going to be the weak link of the new crew, and possibly will even be cut. He was in line for the #3 WR spot for a while but his skills don’t match what we need in a slot receiver and that’s why we traded for Northcutt. I actually like Northcutt a lot and think he’ll finish second on the team in catches. B-Johnson will likely line up wide opposite the other Johnson, but I wouldn’t expect Bryant to catch more than 2 or 3 balls a game, tops. Williams looks great on the highlight videos, but I’m leery of yet another Lions receiver named Williams. I don’t think he’ll work his way onto the field much at all this season, and will probably finish with between 10 and 20 catches.

In fact, for specificity’s sake, here are my official projections:

Calvin: 98 receptions; Northcutt: 55 receptions; Bryant: 38 receptions; Curry: 12 receptions; Williams: 15 receptions. Throw in 53 receptions for Kevin Smith, 22 for Morris, and 10 for the rest of the running backs and any other receivers who sneak onto the field.

The other receiving option is rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who never caught more than 42 balls in a season at Oklahoma State. He’s known for having “soft hands,” which I never think sounds impressive. He’s pretty slow, but makes up for it by gaining most of his yards after the catch. He’s huge and hard to bring down. But of all the YouTube videos I watched on Pettigrew, I didn’t see one impressive catch or even a touchdown. So unfortunately, I highly doubt he does anything notable as a receiving threat. He might catch 35 passes just by virtue of being on the field a lot, but definitely don’t draft him in fantasy football.

I probably should have mentioned Pettigrew in the ‘Running Game’ part, but technically he is a pass-catcher. But the thing I love about Pettigrew, and another one of the main reasons why I love the Lions running game this year, is his blocking ability. He’s big enough to play on the line but quick enough to lead block, and all the scouts raged and blathered about his feel for the play and understanding of the game. Apparently there’s a stat in the NCAA for ‘blocks that set up a touchdown’ and Pettigrew led all tight ends in that area last year. Weird, but encouraging nonetheless.

Pettigrew has years to develop his pass-catching ability and speed; for the 2009 season, if he is a capable blocker, I will be more than happy.

Part Five: Play-Calling and Strategy

With Stafford’s lack of experience and Jim Schwartz’s emphasis on the defensive end, the play-calling decision will almost certainly fall on Scott Linehan. That’s some heavy pressure on a guy who did not fare so well in his previous job did. The other option is to trust Daunte Culpepper to call the plays, but somehow that doesn’t seem like such a good idea either. When reading up on the coaching philosophy of Coach Linehan, a term commonly thrown around is “vertical passing.” This is basically a system of deep routes down the sidelines designed to open up space in the middle of the field for shorter routes and a power running game, with a few deep bombs mixed in to Calvin Johnson. Altogether, it sounds eerily similar to Mike Martz’s flop of an offense a few years ago.

Head coach Jim Schwartz insists that they hired a coach and a mentor, rather than a new philosophy. He says that Linehan understands this and will keep his play-calling within the zone-blocking scheme and utilize the expertise of the players he has to work with. Asking Kevin Smith to morph from a zone-blocking running back to a power back is a pretty big deal. But can we really trust Linehan to undo his previous eight years of experience and trust the system, especially a system that failed epically last year? Will he try to sneak an aggressive-passing playbook under Matt Stafford’s pillow at night without telling Schwartz? I don’t know what to say about this, because either way – aggressive or safe – our offense is going to be about the same.

Here’s a direct quote from Linehan a few months ago:

“Running the football is something we want to be able to establish. To do that, you’ve got to have different types of schemes based on the defenses you’re playing each week.”

The plan of coaching based on your opponent has never interested me (it’s what made Michael Curry such a terrible coach), but in the case of the Lions, it might make sense. No matter whom we play against, we’re almost certain to have less overall talent. If we can understand and expose our opponents weaknesses (assuming they have weaknesses), that might be our best shot at running the ball with some consistent success.

One thing’s for sure - our running attack is still going to put a lot of emphasis on the zone-blocking scheme, at least one more year. Although is was nothing short of a joke watching Jim Costello (or whatever that idiot’s name was) try to implement the scheme last year, I have high hopes that it might turn a corner and work this season. We have two basic building blocks – Smith and Cherilus – who played exclusively in the scheme in college. And we have a new blocking tight end who should work wonders for zone-blocking.

No matter what kind of passing scheme we decide to go with, it should be based around our three greatest assets: Calvin Johnson’s size, Calvin Johnson’s speed, and Calvin Johnson’s ability to run after the catch. I’m sure when it came time for Linehan to decide between the Lions and the 49ers coaching jobs, he took one look at film of Megatron and couldn’t resists. The options are limitless with that guy; send him deep, over the middle, short, anywhere you want and he’s unstoppable. I think the only receiver in NFL history who ever possessed anything like the physical talent of Calvin Johnson was a younger Randy Moss; now that we have the very offensive coordinator who turned Moss into a superstar, I’m pretty excited.

Part Six: Final Predictions

Last year, the Lions gained 4292 yards, third worst in the NFL. (The only teams worse were both from Ohio.) They scored 268 points, fifth worst. They averaged 83 rushing yards (third worst) and 185 passing yards (ninth worst). The gained the third fewest first downs, and at 28% were the second worst team on third down. They did rank in the top half of the league in one offense stat, however – penalty yardage.

So obviously, there is a lot of room to improve. With a player as dominant as Calvin Johnson, it seems the Lions should be ranked at least in the top 15 teams in passing yards. The rushing attack should move up with the addition of Morris, but not any higher than 20th due to the offensive line’s woes. The area that I would love to see some very significant improvement is on third downs; 28% is just unacceptable. Punts are just as bad as interceptions and the Lions seemed perfectly content to punt away every possession they had last year. That has to change.

So here are my optimistic and probably overly idealistic offensive predictions for the 2009 Lions:

1552 rushing yards (23d in the NFL)
3520 passing yards (14th in the NFL)
5072 total yards (18th in the NFL)



Stay tuned for Part Two: Defense.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Hmm...

Well I've written as much as I can at this point about fantasy football, even though looking back there are a number of things I already regret writing and players I should have ranked differently. (For example, Addai was too high; he's going to be in a time-share with Donald Brown upon further review, and Pierre Thomas was much too low). Nothing new is going on with the Pistons and I've attempted to write a few times about the Tigers but I just don't know enough about baseball to feel proud of my work.

In a nutshell, the Tigers are having a good but not great 2009 at the All-Star break and currently have a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central. The 1 and 2 pitchers have been fantastic but no one else has been consistently good. Considering we're in first place in the division with nothing from Magglio Ordonez is pretty great though.

Next week the woman at work who sits in a position where she can see my computer screen will be on vacation, so I should have more time than usual to write something. The problem is there will be a lot more work to do, so we'll see. I need something good to write about though. Maybe it's time for a revised Lions preview, something more in-depth. Yeah, that sounds pretty good. I'll probably do that. Okay peace.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers and Defenses

Kickers

When it comes to fantasy football kickers, I have one rule: wait until the last round. Unless the league requires you to draft two kickers for some stupid reason, in which case wait until the last two rounds and then drop one immediately. A few guys will be drafted earlier than that, so I know I'll never get the "studs" at the kicker position. It's okay. Typically, a kicker who finishes in the top five in fantasy points one year does not duplicate their success. Neil Rackers, Robbie Gould, Rob Bironas ... there are endless examples of kickers who came out of obscurity and led the NFL in kicking points, and then the very next year fell back into the middle-of-the-pack. The so-called sure things, names like Vinatari and Akers, are just as likely to finish in the top half in points as the bottom half. Simply said, there is no predicting kickers. It's all random; it's 99% luck.

There are, however, four guiding principles I use when drafting a kicker, which sometimes prove useful and sometimes do not. I would be happy to share them with you:

1) Good offense. The most obvious rationale when drafting a kicker is that if the team scores a lot of points, the kicker scores a lot of points. This is what compels the ESPN experts to rank New England's Gostkowski #1.

2) Indoor games. It's so much easier to kick on turf instead of grass, especially with no wind. Guys who play half their games indoors almost always have a higher accuracy percentage; on a related note, kickers who play outdoors and in the cold (New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh) usually have a tough time in two or three snowy home games.

3) Favorable schedules. I like kickers who play against divisions with weak defenses. Or, I like to drop kickers from week to week and play against crummy defenses, especially in a dome. Of course, I typically overthink the matchup and end up with a splendid two extra points.

4) Good kicker. It seems obvious right? But all too often I end up drafting a kicker who can't kick the freaking ball through the uprights from 45 yards on a semi-windy day. What good are FG attempts if they can't make them??

*One last note: don't ever draft a kicker unless you're sure they will be the starter. The only thing more annoying than a quarterback controversy is a kicker controversy. So that leaves out a few teams, including the high-scoring Saints.

So allow me to quickly roll through my hastily thought-out kicker rankings. I used five levels for categorizing: great, good, decent, average, and shit. But remember, like I said earlier, it doesn't matter who you draft; you just cannot predict kickers.

Tier One: Good Kickers Who Play Lots of Indoor Games

1. Kris Brown, Houston.
11 indoor games, good offense, great kicker.

2. Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis.
11 indoor games, great offense, good kicker.

3. Jason Elam, Atlanta.
9 indoor games, great offense, decent kicker.

4. Ryan Longwell, Minnesota.
11 indoor games, decent offense, average kicker.

5. Neil Rackers, Arizona.
10 indoor games, good offense, inconsistent but sometimes great kicker.

Tier Two: Great kickers on Great Offenses; Outside Games

6. Stephen Gostkowski, New England.
Best offense in the NFL, great kicker, only 3 indoor games.

7. David Akers, Philadelphia.
Great offense, great kicker, only one indoor game.

8. Nate Kaeding, San Diego.
Great offense, great kicker, no indoor games.

Tier Three: Everyone Else...

9. Mason Crosby, Green Bay.
Good offense, decent kicker, cold weather games.
(It doesn't matter if I want Crosby or not, Crazy Keith always ends up with Crosby. It's just a fact.)

10. Rob Bironas, Tennesee
Shit offense, great kicker, only a few indoors.

11. Jason Hanson, Detroit.
12. Josh Brown, St. Louis.
10 indoor games, shit offenses, decent kickers.

13. Nick Folk, Dallas.
Good offense, good kicker.

14. Robbie Gould, Chicago.
15. John Kasay, Carolina.
16. Joe Nedney, San Francisco.
Decent offenses, good kickers.

17. Lawerence Tynes, New York Giants.
Good offense, Scottish kicker. I mean, decent kicker.

18. Matt Prater, Denver.
Decent offense, average kicker.

19. Shayne Graham, Cincinnati.
Shit offense, good kicker.

20. Josh Scobee, Jacksonville.
21. Ryan Lindell, Buffalo.
Average offenses, average kickers.

22. Josh Reed, Pittsburgh.
Good offense, good kicker, shit stadium.
(Check this out: this guy got a demeanor for "Criminal Mischief" at a local convenience store this past winter when their bathroom did not have any paper towels and he proceeded to flip things over and scream at the clerk. Sounds like a real winner.)

23. Mike Nugent, Tampa Bay.
24. Phil Dawson, Cleveland.
Shit offenses, decent kickers.

As far as I can tell, everyone else is either involved in some kind of position battle or is so a fat bald guy named Sebastin, so the rankings will stop here. The most important thing to remember with kickers is this: don't draft them until the last round. Don't be cute and draft Gostkowski while everyone else is grabbing this year's Steve Slaton and Eddie Royal.

Let's move on straight away to my rankings for Fantasy Football 2009 Defenses!

Defense/Special Teams Rankings

DSTs are almost as difficult to predict as kickers, and have the same annoying tendency where the guys who finished at the top last year end up near the bottom the following year. Look at the Vikings and Chargers; they were the consensus top two defenses last fantasy season, and neither ended up being a respectable starting option. Injuries can really take a toll on fantasy defenses, and turnovers and sacks can be totally unpredictable. And sometimes the experts are just flat out wrong; a few years ago I drafted the Dolphins defense, pre-ranked as a top five choice. I dropped them after several weeks of ineptitude, and they finished dead last among fantasy defenses. Dead last. They were projected to be a top five defense. How does that happen? That would never happen with any other position. Last year I reached and selected the Vikings in the sixth round, thinking the addition of Jared Allen plus being in the Lions and Bears division would give them a sure-fire elite defense. I was wrong. This year's sure thing looks like the Steelers, who have all their studs back for another year and play their home games on a field of mud to ensure that opposing offenses can't move at full speed. (Pretty cheap if you ask me, but whatever.) The Steelers will probably be taken in the fifth or sixth round, which is a bit too early for me, and besides picking a sleeper defense is something I pride myself in.

Last year I had the Bills and Titans both pegged as sleepers, and ranked as 7 and 8 respectively. I drafted the Bills, adhering to my draft board, but dangit if I had just picked the Titans I might have won the whole league. At least the Bills weren't all that bad, although they sat the bench while the Vikings stunk it up so the whole DST thing didn't really work out for me last year. But the important thing is, I called the Titans as a sleeper, and for that I take great pride.

This year there are a number of obvious great defenses: the Steelers, Giants, Eagles, Ravens, etc. What I'm more concerned with is value. Finding a great defense in the very late rounds, when most of the experts' top 10 defenses are long gone. I like the Bills again, and I love the Redskins, and I think the Bears and Patriots are being undervalued and should make a good bargain. The hard thing about predicting fantasy defenses, and the reason everyone always gets it wrong, is this:

There is tons of luck involved. Turnovers, sacks, touchdowns- sometimes they are just as much about being in the right place at the right time as being a great player. The ball bounces right into your hands, or the quarterback throws it right to the safety, or the running back trips over his own feet and fumbles. It happens all the time. You can have an elite shutdown corner, a ball-hawking safety, a great pass-rushing DE or a run-stuffing DT or a brilliant chase-and-tackle linebacker, and none of that has anything to do with why Dan Orlovsky ran out of the back of the end zone last October. Sometimes you just get lucky. Sometimes Sage Rosenfels fumbles three times in the last five minutes of the game, but don't credit the Colts defense for that. That's why so much of my rankings are based on intangibles, rather than roster; who you play against and where is just as important as how good you are. It's also why matchups are so important for DSTs. No defense could stop the 2007 Patriots, and no defense could do poorly against the 08 Lions. My rankings are going to try to reflect not only talent but opportunity, and hopefully blend the two together beautifully into a tapestry of brilliant foreshadowing. Without further ado, my rankings:

Tier One: Studs

1. Pittsburgh Steelers.
It's rare that I pick last's year #1 to be this year's #1. The experts try to do it at every position, which makes me guffaw. But certain exceptions should be made. Adrian Peterson is one. The Steelers defense is the other. They still have all their studs (Harrison, Woodley, Polumalu, Hampton, Farrior, Smith) and they still play home games on that muddy pit called Heinz Field. They love low-scoring games, and dictate their offense around long, time-consuming drives. That's why they had the fewest points allowed and yards allowed in the NFL last season, and why they're likely to do it again. They should rack up the sacks and turnovers once again, and they usually score a few times a year on punt returns. Oh yeah, and they get to play the Browns and Bengals twice and the Lions once. They are definitely a worthy #1 overall defense, the question is how soon is too soon to draft them? I'd wait until at least the seventh round, but that's just me.

2. Philadelphia Eagles.
The only concern I have with Philly is that they play six games against tough division opponents. But it's not all about who you play; a good defense is a good defense. In fantasy football you want an aggressive defense, and nobody's more aggressive than the Eagles. They blitz like crazy, they sack like crazy, and they force turnovers like crazy. Asante Samuel is an excellent cover corner and Trent Cole is a good pass rusher and they have playmakers all over. Hopefully they can trim back the yards and points allowed this year.

3. Washington Redskins.
I'll keep saying it until somebody listens to me: they are this year's Titans. Run the ball, stop the run. They won't give up many yards or points and Haynesworth opens up the rest of the D for sacks and big plays. I don't understand why nobody is making a big deal of the Skins D. In basketball, if you add a top 10 player in the NBA, say Chris Paul, everyone's going to freak out and say you're suddenly an elite team. Why isn't it the same in football!? And don't you dare tell me Haynesworth isn't a top 10 player. He might be incredibly expensive, but he's worth every penny if he plays as good as he played last year. The scary thing is ... the Redskins finished fourth in fewest yards allowed last year, without Haynesworth. Look out guys.

4. New York Giants.
That's three NFC East teams in a row. So much for worrying about facing those tough offenses. I think the good defenses in the divison outweigh the good offenses. The Giants have studs on the D-line with Uminyora and Tuck, playmakers all over the secondary, and crazy depth. The big concern is the departure of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (now with the Rams), who was probably the mastermind behind their success.

5. New York Jets.
Second best cornerback in the NFL: Darelle Revis. One of the best linebacking duos in the NFL: David Harris and Bart Scott. One of the best nosetackles in the NFL: Kris Jenkins. What's not to like here? New coach Rex Ryan is a notorious blitzing fiend from his Baltimore days and should add some aggression to a talented Jets defense. Two other intangible reasons to like the Jets D: they emphasize running the ball and running the clock on offense, and six of their final eight games should be in cold weather. That's a lot of things to like. They have sleeper written all over them. All the Jets need is for Sanchez not to stink and they're talking playoffs. (Playoffs?? PLAYOFFS?? DONT TALK ABOUT ... PLAYOFFS??? )

6. Baltimore Ravens.
I love and hate them at the same time. I hate that their old, I hate that Rex Ryan left them and took Bart Scott with him, and it's scary that they lost both starting cornerbacks (McAllister and Rolle). I love that they still have the best defensive playmaker in the NFL (Ed Reed) and the most murderous linebacker (literally) in Ray Lewis, plus sackmaster Terrell Suggs, and I really love those four games against the hapless Browns and Bengals. They're good, but I bet they'll be inconsistent.

Tier Two: Former Studs Who Can Now Be Bought At A Bargain
7. Minnesota Vikings.
8. San Diego Chargers
Last year's top choices have both slipped in the rankings, but are still better than average. They each have balance and depth and stud playmakers, as well as sack-specialists. Both teams struggle against the pass, however, which consequently means they give up too many points and yards, even in their respectively easy divisions. The Vikings are better because you simply can't run against them.

9. New England Patriots.
Their defense stunk last year, which is great news for this year's fantasy draft, because it means you can draft them pretty much whenever you want. They've still got a killer defensive line and good young LBs led by Jerod Mayo. Their glaring weakness last year was in the secondary. They added Shawn Springs, Leigh Bodden, and rookie Ken Chung to address the problem. That should be enough. One of my cardinal rules when drafting a fantasy defense: trust great coaches. The Patriots certainly have one.

10. Chicago Bears.
Similar to the Patriots in that no one will be after them early even though they used to be a powerhouse. I actually think adding the irrevocably inept Rod Marinelli as defensive line coach will help the Bears achieve more sacks. Sort of like the Morninwhig phenomenon: terrible head coach makes a decent assistant coach. The linebackers are good, but not great, and certainly overrated, and the secondary isn't wonderful. The best thing Chicago's got going for them is the fact that these are DST rankings, not just defense rankings; Devin Hester is still the best return man in the world.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags are kind of like the Steelers, in that they love to grind out the clock and dominate time of possession and play low-scoring, field-position type of games. That helps their fantasy defense. Mathis is an elite cornerback and they have two young DEs who can rush the passer, Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves. If the rest of the defense can avoid being burned, Jacksonville might be one of the best values this year. Pretty much no one will draft them after last year's debacle, but I attribute that to growing pains as they adjusted to losing their stud DT and were no longer able to stop the run. They won't be a top-five unit this year for the same reason, but they might be a consistently startable unit.

Tier Three: The New Studs
12. Buffalo Bills.
I've already confessed my love to the Bills defense enough times over the past two seasons that I'm getting sick of it. I'm only rating them 12th best defense to show that while I would be willing to draft and own them in a 12 team league, I don't trust them to definitely be an elite defense. Stroud, Schobel, Maybin, McGee, Posluszny... they do have a lot of stud players. Let's see if they can put together a 16 game season instead of just a 6 game season like the player last year.

(Even though you shouldn't need to draft any defenses out of the top 12, I'm going to go ahead and rank them all just for the fun of it)

13. Green Bay Packers.
I was obsessed with the Packers D for a while until I stumbled across something unsettling: their switch to the 3-4 scheme involves moving stud defensive end Aaron Kampman to outside linebacker. Moving your best player to an entirely different position? Doesn't this seem like an idiotic idea? The hope is that Kampman will be a pure enough athlete to seamlessly switch positions and if he does the entire defense benefits like crazy. It makes sense. Sort of. But is it feasible? I have my doubts. Still like the Pack D, but not as much anymore.

14. Houston Texans.
Just like the real-life Texans, the fantasy DST Texans are hyped up as a sleeper every season but they always disappoint. Mario Williams is a sack-stud. DeMecco Ryans is an awesome linebacker. Okobi is a rising star at DT. The Texans are pretty easy to beat through the air, though, and that will probably be their downfall.

15. San Francisco 49ers.
Same story as Houston. Everyone loves to pick them as a sleeper, everyone's always wrong. What the 49ers have is the best linebacker in the NFL and a defensive minded coach, and young talent on the line and in the secondary. What they don't have is a history of playing well, which could lead to a lack of confidence and another lousy season. But being in the NFC West, and having a player as dynamically awesome as Patrick Willis, I can't drop them any lower than 15. Maybe they should be higher. Time will tell.

16. Miami Dolphins.
Joey Porter and the Dolphins overachieved last year and then shook things up in the secondary and added a few rookies who they plan on starting and it all makes it pretty hard to trust them, even if they are led by the genius Bill Parcells.

Tier Four: If You're Desperate ... Or If You're Stupid

17. Dallas Cowboys.
They have one of the NFL's best defensive players, DeMarcus Ware, but that's about it. Last year they had a ton of sacks (59) but didn't do much of anything else. Expect more of the same, but with less sacks. They've got a tough schedule and a dofus coach.

18. Detroit Lions.
Come on, you knew I wasn't ranking the Lions dead last like every other expert. (Yes, I just referred to myself as an expert; if those bozos can call themselves experts so can I.) Look at the facts: added Grady Jackson to bolster a terrible rush defense; added Buchanon, Henry and King to make a horrible pass defense more mediocre; added Peterson and Foote to a linebacking crew that lacked the ability to read plays and make tackles; added a defensive minded head coach and got rid of a super-idiotic head coach; drafted a stud at free safety; finally have a legitimate return man in Dennis Northcutt; cut Travis Fisher; still have Ernie Sims; play against turnover-machines Cutler and Favre twice each;
play against the low-scoring Rams, Seahawks, Bengals, Browns, Ravens and 49ers; plus, most importantly, they are due. You can't be the worst team in the NFL two years in a row. I'm probably not going to draft the Lions, but if they remain a free agent, I'll give them a shot. They're going to be good.

19. Indianapolis Colts.
Nothing against the Colts defense; Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney are exceptional players. It's just that the Colts style doesn't behoove good fantasy numbers for their defense. The offenses scores fast and scores often. They play on turf. And most of all, they run a Tampa-inspired cover 2 scheme, which basically means they employ small, faster players instead of players who, say, are able to stop the run. So the Colts get toasted on the ground game year after year, and although the Tampa 2 architect is out of town, all his old players remain and are still too small to stop the run. They are one of those defenses who are much better in real life than they are in fantasy.

20. St. Louis Rams.
The classic example of a great coach with minimal talent to work with. I trust Spagnuolo to turn them around and the turnaround will start on the defensive end. Breakout season for Chris Long and I bet a couple guys I've never heard of will make names for themselves too. Sleeper alert.

21. Arizona Cardinals.
They ranked in the top half of DSTs last year, but mainly because they scored six defensive touchdowns. That’s one of those luck kinds of things that doesn’t usually repeat itself. Rodgers-Cromartie is a great player but Dockett looks to be holding out or at least not playing wholeheartedly, and the rest of the NFC West is about to catch up with them this year.

22. Tennessee Titans.
Here's my advice for the 2009 Titans defense: laugh at whomever in your league is stupid enough to draft them. They had one great fluke year, and then they lost their coach and best player. Not just their best player, but one of the best defensive players in all the NFL. They won't be able to stop the run this year, or slow the pass, and their offense will be much worse too which makes their defense worse. If anyone in your league is unaware of the Haynesworth not being on the Titans this year, or doesn't even know who Haynesworth is, hope that they draft Tennesee with the hope that they will be a top-five defense once again. Then laugh at them.

Tier Five: Maybe Next Year
23. Seattle Seahawks.They would possibly be ranked dead last if not for drafting Aaron Curry. I think he'll come in and dominate right away. (He might be the only rookie drafted in the top 10 who I say that about.) The rest of Seattle is not special at all.

24. Kansas City Chiefs.
For a while I had the Chiefs pegged as a major sleeper. They have so much young talent (Dorsey, Johnson, Jackson) and some veteran linebackers (Vrabel, Thomas) and the assassin who took down Tom Brady last year (Pollard.) I like their offense and their team overall this year, but I can't rank their defense higher than 25 until the young talent actually starts to produce.

Tier Six: Don't Even Think About It

25. Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta is an offensive team, and they figure to get in as many high-scoring shootouts as they can. That's bad. Besides that, they have almost no talent on defense (comparatively to the rest of the NFL). That's even worse.

26. Oakland Raiders.
As you may have heard, the Raiders have the best defensive player in the NFL, Nnamdi Asomugha. He shuts down half the field and makes their pass defense one of the best. But opposing teams will run all over and throw at everyone except Asomugha and dominate the Raiders as usual. Poor guy needs to get on a new team. Hey Nnamdi, I hear the Lions are accepting applications.

27. Carolina Panthers.
I just don't like them this year at all. Julius Peppers may have signed a 1-year tender (by the way, what the heck is a tender? Do you get a mental image of a guy signing a real soft piece of paper and rubbing it softly on his face while some man in a suit whispers 'Tender. Tender.' Because I do.) but that doesn't mean he's going to play this year. Even if he does play, I doubt he will play well. He hates them and doesn't want to be there. And he's their whole defense.

28. Denver Broncos.
Similar story to the Raiders, except Champ Bailey isn't quite as good as Asomugha, and the Broncos are even worse against the run. (Notice how three of the worst overall defenses are in the AFC West? Gotta make you love the Chargers even more).

29. Cleveland Browns.
At least they have Shaun Rogers, in case they want to get some really stupid penalties at inopportune times. But on a serious note, as bad as the Browns probably will be, they have a small slight chance at being okay. They play in the lowest-scoring division and on a crappy field and have the league's second best return man (Cribbs.) What they don't have in talent, they more than have in opportunity.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
How the mighty have fallen. They lost Derrick Brooks, fired Jon Gruden, and let genius defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin slip out of town. Ronde Barber is like 45 years old by now (though he still has that great smile!) and they have the pleasure of facing three very good offenses twice a year. On the positive side, Aqib Talib is very good and has a really cool name.

31. New Orleans Saints.
Their defense has kept them out of the playoffs for a couple years in a row and been really terrible. They have a few good players (Grant, Will Smith, Vilma) but for some reason they can't get anything done. It's probably a mental thing with them and they desperately need a new attitude or a new leader or a complete overhaul or something. So what did they do this offseason .. they signed Jabari Greer to play cornerback! Uh, who?

32. Cincinnati Bengals.
Doesn't get any worse than them, even with their easy division. They suck. They are awful. They were so much worse than the Lions last year, but we got all the attention for sucking because of our 0-16 record, but if we player the Bengals we would have been 1-15. Yeah our defense was worse statistically and almost broke records of futility, but that's not because we were less talented than them. It was poor coaching. Actually, it was hideous coaching. This year that changes. But the Bengals could be coached by Gordon Bombay himself and it would not matter. They are the worst.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Tight Ends

Tight end is becoming the lamest position in fantasy football. It’s boring and unpredictable like kickers, but top-heavy and inequitable, like capitalism. There are studs, who give you wide receiver-like production, and then there are duds, who catch a rare touchdown once a month but on most weeks you’re just hoping for a single twenty-yard catch. When I first started playing fantasy football eight years ago, there was a solid crop of 10 to 15 tight ends, fairly distributed so that everyone got a decent player. (Of course, there was only one Shannon Sharpe, who I just happened to have on October 20, 2002 when he broke all sorts of records with a 214 yard game.)

Nowadays, there is Gates, Gonzalez, and Witten, and then everybody else. It’s hit or miss, and if you get a hit one week, you’ll probably have a miss the next. Rare guys like Owen Daniels or Vishanthe Shiancoe string together productive seasons one year, but can they be trusted as anything other than a 10th round pick? My philosophy is: If you don’t land one of the top guys, it’s probably best to wait until you aren’t allowed to draft running backs and receivers anymore, and then take whoever is left. RBs and WRs have upside; they might become starters due to injury or become the coach’s new favorite, but tight ends have no upside; they are already starters, and that doesn’t mean too much statistically.

Basically there are two methods of safety that I usually employ when it comes to tight ends. One is just draft a guy on a high-scoring offense, and hope the ball gets spread around. The other is to play the match-ups. Find a guy who play against easy defenses early in the year, drop him and pick up another guy who is facing the Bengals, then drop him and pick up whoever is facing the Rams, etc. It may lay you a goose egg, but it might earn you a bogus touchdown as well. It’s better than putting all your faith in Bo Scaife and watching him go up and down from week to week and being thrilled with a 30 yard performance.

The general rule for me is unless I believe a tight end will give me the production I want from a #2 fantasy receiver (around 6 TDs and 900 yards) I don’t bother drafting him until it’s too late. My last three rounds will probably be tight end, defense, kicker. Unless for some reason Gates is floating around in the seventh round, which he never is. If you want to gamble a third round pick on having the best tight end in the league, great for you. If you want to try to wait till later and locate the sleeper, (as I always do, and I always get it waayy wrong) best of luck. But in either event, here are my tight end rankings:

Tier One: The Studs

1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Tony Gonzalez
4. Dallas Clark

Talent, good offenses, touchdowns, yards; these guys have it all and do it all. The drop-off from these four to the rest of the bunch is from the fifth round to the tenth round. It might be a stretch to include Clark in here, but I don’t think it is. I trust him; Peyton Manning trusts him; he was top 4 among tight ends in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and yards last year. Only Gonzalez can claim that. He lines up in the slot and sometimes as a wide-out in Manning’s offense and has the speed to pick up yards after the catch. In short, I love Dallas Clark. Of course, I trust Witten, Gates and Gonzo as well.

Tier Two: The Guys Most Likely To Join Tier One Someday Soon

5. Greg Olsen
Jay Cutler loves tight ends, and besides that has no trusty wide receivers to throw to. Olsen is big and fast and with Matt Forte’s running ability I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears in the red-zone looking for a passing target often. Olsen should be the guy. Big breakout potential.

6. Chris Cooley
A solid candidate mainly because I like the Redskins this year. He had only one touchdown last year (he’ll have more than that this year) so he might slide to the late rounds and be a good value.

Tier Three: Young Guys on the Rise

I’d draft any of these guys, but I wouldn’t jump out of my chair and pump my fist.

7. Dustin Keller
A rookie last year, Keller caught only 48 balls and 3 TDs, but was targeted often in the spread offense, and should see many more balls thrown his way now that Chris Baker is gone, especially if Sanchez starts, because rookie QBs tend to love tight ends.

8. Zach Miller
If he wasn’t on the Raiders, I’d love him. He has great hands and speed, and is basically a wide receiver who plays tight end. There’s a very teeny tiny chance that somehow the Raiders aren’t completely awful, and if that happens Miller could have a dream season.

9. John Carlson
The only reliable receiving threat on last year’s anemic Seahawks, Carlson is now hit-or-miss. Hit, if he repeats last year’s success and gets into the end zone another five times. Miss, if the healthy Seahawks receivers keep Carlson off the field.

10. Kevin Boss.
Eli seems to like Boss simply because he’s not Jeremy Shockey. With Toomer and Burress gone, someone has to catch the ball in New York. K-Boss might be solid this year.

Tier Four: Over-Rated

Success last year or the year before will make these guys drafted in most leagues, but they shouldn’t be trusted.

9. Owen Daniels
Only two scores last year. Both against the Lions. Both against me the week I was playing against him. Hilarious how that happens. He only produces when Andre Johnson is hurt, so if Andre stays healthy Daniels is not worth owning.

10. Bo Scaife
He was surprisingly decent last year, but the entire Titans team is about to get dumped on and that includes the already-lousy passing game. Scaife ain’t repeating last year’s 560 yards.

11. Tony Scheffler
He only did well because Jay Cutler loved him. Now he has a new coach who is shaking everything up, and has never shown any love towards tight ends. Scheffler is done.

Tier Five: A Few Touchdowns, but Nothing Else

If you draft these guys, you’ll be pulling your hair out week after week just hoping for one reception for a six-yard TD; but if you pick these guys up sparingly on good-matchup weeks, you could be in for a nice amount of touchdowns.

12. Visanthe Shiancoe
The Vikings big brute had seven scores last year.

13. Heath Miller
Mostly just a good blocker, but he scores from inside the ten-yard line a few times a year.

14. Donald Lee
He’s on a good offense and he’s a solid player so I would imagine he scores three or four this season.

Tier Six: Sleepers Worth a Very Late Draft Pick and Hope for the Best

15. Shawn Nelson, Buffalo
Has great hands and speed and looks like the starter in Buffalo. With TO and Evans drawing so much attention, Nelson might break free for some big plays.

16. Brent Celek, Eagles
Moves into the starting role in Philly and McNabb has shown an affinity for tight ends in the past. As I expect their offense to be stellar, Celek might make a sneaky sleeper for around 4 TDs and 500 yards.

17. Vernon Davis, 49ers
He is not only the strongest tight end in the NFL, but also the fastest. Yes, you read that right. He has wide receiver speed and linebacker strength, and that’s what made him the 6th overall pick just a few years ago. What Davis doesn’t have is: hands, route-running ability, competitiveness, or a brain. If he somehow develops all four of those things this summer, look out!

18. Travis Beckum, Giants
Rookie from Wisconsin with great receiving ability and limited blocking ability. Since the Giants other tight end is a great blocker but not a stud receiver, the G-Men might make Beckum their passing-downs tight end. And like I said before, Eli doesn’t really have anyone else to throw the ball to, so Beckum might be a super-sleeper.

19. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
I’ve watched enough Youtube videos of him to know that he has minimal talent as a pass-catcher, and the reason the Lions drafted him is for his blocking ability. But he’ll be on the field just about every play, so he should catch 30 or 40 passes by default. And maybe even more than that if Stafford plays, since Calvin will be quintuple-teamed and rookie QBs typically check down rather than look to their second receiver. I don’t want Pettigrew on my fantasy team, but I bet he’ll be drafted by some deranged Lions fan (my brother).

Tier Seven: Those Freaking Dolphins

20. Anthony Fasano
21. David Martin

If the Fins could pick one guy and stick with him, and call him Anthid Marsano, he would have had 10 touchdowns and 900 yards last year. But since they steal each other’s production, neither one is worth owning, unless the other gets hurt.

Tier Eight: The Has-Been’s … I Mean, Never-Were’s… I Mean, Total Douche Bags

Overrated, cocky, stupid, and injury prone. Just waiting to be arrested for some stupid reason.

22. Kellen Winslow
23. Jeremy Shockey

Tier Nine: Why Even Bother?

24. Todd Heap, Ravens
Man, he has fallen off the face of the Earth.
25. Randy McMichael, Rams
26. Ben Watson, Patriots
A total tease.
27. Leonard Pope, Cardinals
28. Ben Utecht, Bengals
A sleeper last year, who stayed asleep.
29. Alex Smith, Bucs
30. Jeff King, Panthers
31. Herman Moore, Lions
32. Michael Jackson, Dead

Just seeing if you were paying attention.

There is Nobody Else Worth Mentioning

Seriously, tight ends are boring. Stay tuned for kickers (which I will spend all of ten minutes writing) and defenses.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Detroit Pistons: 2009 Preview

About nine months ago, I wrote a pretty extensive evaluation of the now infamous Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups trade. I don’t want to brag, but to be frankly honest I couldn’t have been more correct. Chauncey proved beyond any question that he is in fact a (much) better player than Iverson, and AI’s inability to coexist with his teammates proved one of Detroit’s greatest downfalls. But, as anticipated, the trade did open up more than 20 million dollars in cap space thanks to The Canswer’s expiring contract. Joe Dumars had a fortune to spend during the 2009 free agency, and it was all very exciting.

For years Joe Dumars has been one of the NBA's best executives. He pulled Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups out of no where and built a championship team around them. He drafted late first-round gems like Tayshaun and Mehmet and wheeled a trade to acquire Rasheed for next to nothing. Every Pistons fan huddled around one mantra: In Joe Dumars we trust. So give him $20 million dollars to play with and let's see what Joe can cook up.

Unfortunately, all the marquee talent is entering free agency in the summer of 2010, not 2009. Rather than wait that long, Joe took a shot at Carlos Boozer. Swing and a miss. Then he quickly tried for Hedo Turkoglu. Strike two. So what did Joe D do next?

He settled.

Earlier this week the Pistons signed Bulls sharpshooter Ben Gordon and Bucks power forward Charlie Villanueva each to five year contracts. Are they both good players? Yes. Are they all stars? No. (Did they both play for U-Conn? Yes.) But the real question is: Are either of them, or even are BOTH OF THEM COMBINED, adequate replacements for Chauncey Billups? The answer is a resounding Hell No.

So, if you were still wondering whether or not it was a good deal, here is the condensed version: what the Pistons essentially did was trade their best player, their leader, and one of the ten best players in the NBA in exchange for one terrible, painful season and loads of cap space, which they then converted into two role players. Verdict: bad trade.

Add to our problems that our two starting big-men, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, are leaving the team via free agency (likely destinations: Sheed to Boston, and Dyess to San Antonio). With Amir Johnson traded for a few extra million in cap space, our two remaining bigs, and likely starters look like this: Kwame Brown, and Jason Maxiell. Okay, so now you can plug Villanueva in at the 4 and bring Maxiell off the bench, but still. That still leaves Kwame Brown as the Pistons starting center. KWAME BROWN. To quote Timon from the Lion King, “…And Everybody’s Okay With This???!?!!

To balance out many of the more 'questionable' moves that Joe Dumars has made in the past four or five years, this past week he slightly redeemed himself by firing his buddy Michael Curry, also known as the worst head coach I’ve ever seen. My brother was the head coach for a high school girl’s team, and he showed better play-calling and clock-management skills than Curry did. I'm serious. And Curry was coaching in the NBA. That’s the highest level there is.

As of right now, July 3rd, a replacement for Curry has yet to be named, although Doug Collins’ named has been scratched off the list and Avery Johnson seems pretty likely. (Which would be awesome!) Whether Curry was fired on demands by Gordon or Villanueva or by current players or simply because he was a terrible coach is yet to be known. For more insight on the Curry firing (as well as heaps of fantasy football factoids) you can check out the recent post on my blog, http://davidmorgan8.blogspot.com/, titled Pistons Fire Curry! This Pistons preview will be up on the blog too, but I decided to post in on facebook as well for more people to see.

So now the free agency excitement is all but over for the Pistons. The only real objective left for Joe is to try to use his remaining cap room to re-sign McDyess, but it’s unlikely that McDiggity will want to be back in blue considering all he wants at this point in his career is that elusive championship. Sad to say, the Pistons do not look like contenders for the 2010 title.

Barring any more drastic changes, our starting line-up looks like this: Stuckey at point, Gordon at 2, Tayshuan at 3, Villanueva at 4, and Kwame at 5. Rip will likely come off the bench, but even more likely than that he will fake an injury so he can spend the year on the bench pouting. You can be sure that when next season ends, Rip will not have any desire to re-sign and his expiring contract will give the Pistons some more cap room to go after another re-building piece of the puzzle. (But isn’t it annoying that we are suddenly in rebuilding mode even though we had a relatively young championship-caliber team only two years ago??)

We know what we’re getting from the 1, 3 and 5 positions. Stuckey is a developing score-first point guard, who needs to learn to control the game and play within himself. An outside shot and better perimeter defense would be nice to see too. (Basically, can we get Chauncey back please?) Tayshaun is a solid but not spectacular small forward, but I think his skills might be a good complement for our two new additions. Kwame is a unskilled seven-footer, who can give you a Darko-like 8 points and 6 rebounds on his best night. What Pistons fans are all dying to know is: what can we expect from Ben and Charlie?

Maybe it’s just because I’m a biased Pistons fan, but I’ve never liked either of these guys. Gordon has always stuck me as a me-first shooter who would rather score 40 points than win the game. No question that he is a great shooter, and a better shooter than Hamilton. But can he be a team player on Detroit, or will he be more interested in being our leading scorer? Does he play defense or just save up energy for the offensive end? Why is he black but has a British accent? (I know, he was born in the U.K., but it’s still annoying). Gordon is known as one of the NBA’s best fourth-quarter scorers, but struggles with turnovers and mental mistakes. His consistent 41% three-point shooting will be a nice addition, but that’s pretty much all he gives us.
The most important thing to know about Charlie Villanueva is that he ails from a disease known as Alopecia, meaning he cannot grown hair anywhere on his body. If you start to google his name, the third option down is “Charlie Villanueva eyebrows.” Great. Aside from being hairless and eyebrow-less, Charlie’s game is pretty good. Versatile is the word that comes to mind. He has been one of the more underrated forwards in the NBA for a while, but giving him $35 million over 5 years might change that completely. Villanueva is a 6’11”, 240 pound athlete with an outside shot. He can elevate to block shots and play above the rim and is a great passer for a power forward. I got the inside scoop from an avid Bucks fan named Zach Vinson, who informed me that while Villanueva has the ability to go off for 40 points on any given night, he is also a bit lazy and has a tendency to drift around the perimeter and settle for outside jumpers. Zach also reported that Villanueva doesn’t usually extend much effort on the defensive end, and but when he does he is pretty effective. Sounds a lot like Sheed to me, but since Charlie is younger, more athletic, and certainly less of an idiot, I’m actually pretty excited to see him in Pistons blue. In fact, even though Gordon comes with a higher price tag, I’m more excited to see what Charlie can do and I think he will make a bigger contribution to the team.


So although the two players we signed aren’t exactly a dream come true, it’s certainly a good thing that the Pistons did something. If we hadn’t signed anyone at all, not only would the Billups trade be all for naught, but we would be a 30 or 35 win team next year. With Gordon and Villanueva on board, the Pistons basically guarantee themselves another playoff appearance and hopefully give themselves a shot to get out of the first round, depending on the matchup. I can’t see our playoff seed being any higher than fifth or sixth. We have the makings of a 40-42 team, with the upside being at most 50 wins. Next summer, when LeBron, Wade, Bosh and so many others are deciding what to do with their futures, the Pistons will be paying almost 20 million a year to Gordon and Villanueva and using the Hamilton-created cap space to sign another average role player.

As a way of wrapping this up, let’s take a look at the rest of the action thus far in NBA free agency and discuss its implications. In order of importance, the following moves have already occurred: Ron Artest to the Lakers; Trevor Ariza to the Rockets; Shaq to the Cavs; Richard Jefferson to the Spurs; and Vince Carter to the Magic. Hedo Turkoglu is yet to sign, but he is moving somewhere, either the Blazers and Raptors.

Here’s my analysis:
The Magic made themselves worse; they essentially turned Hedo into Vince, and also lost their fourth and fifth best players (Lee and Alston) in the process. The Lakers and Rockets swapped small forwards; Artest is better now but Ariza is more promising for the future. I’d call it a wash, but it does bolster Kobe’s chances of winning another ring next year. The Cavs landed the big dumb out-of-shape brute known as Shaq in exchange for Ben Wallace and Pavlovic, which in my opinion doesn’t make them any better. The Spurs added a scoring wingman who should fit in nicely, while the Bucks were able to save some money for next summer by losing Jefferson and Villanueva. The biggest losers so far are the Rockets, who lost Artest and will probably lose Yao for the season with yet another prolonged injury. The Bulls lost Gordon to the Pistons which takes away their best scorer and may slow the development of Derrick Rose, and the Nets will actually be better off replacing Vince Carter with Courtney Lee and saving money in the process. All in all, a busy summer for the elite teams who are vying for a 2010 championship, and a dull summer for those lesser teams holding out hope for the much anticipated summer of 2010.

Then there are the Pistons, an middle-of-the-road team that still thinks they are elite, and who proved their point by signing a couple of mediocre role players. Absolutely brilliant.

In Joe Dumars we trust?

After the Darko pick, the Chauncey trade, and now this …

Sorry Joe, but I don’t think so. Not anymore.