Does the Preseason Mean Anything?
The short answer is “no,” simply because two years ago the Lions went 4-0 in the preseason and then 0-16 in the regular season. But what about the 31 other teams? Well, I did some research, and here’s what I found out.
Since 2003, 14 teams have gone 4-0 in the preseason. In the regular season, those teams have averaged 8.21 wins.
In that same time frame, 52 teams have gone 3-1 in the preseason. Those teams have averaged 7.92 wins in the regular season.
73 teams have gone 2-2; those teams averaged 8.32 wins.
46 teams went 1-3; those teams averaged 8.74 wins.
And 14 teams went 0-4 in the preseason; those teams averaged only 7.00 wins.
So the recap statement is this: no, the preseason doesn’t mean anything.
Here are a few Interesting facts:
Over the past 7 seasons, the NFL’s best team has been the Indianapolis Colts, with 89 wins and 23 losses – a 79% winning percentage. Their preseason record over that span? 9-19, a 32% winning percentage.
By contrast, the worst team since 2003 has been (surprise!) the Detroit Lions, with 28 wins and 84 losses – a winning percentage of 25%. But in the preseason, Detroit has been above .500, with 15 wins and 13 losses.
Let’s take a look at the last 7 Super Bowl champions:
-The Pats in 2004 & 2005
-Them Stellers in 2006
-The Colts in 07
-Giants in 08
-Steelers again in 09
-And the Saints last year.
Those 7 teams went a combined 16-12 in their preseasons. Three went 3-1, three went 1-3, and one went 4-0.
So far in the 2010 preseason, Colts are winless, the Raiders are undefeated, and none of it means anything.
Wake me up on September 9th.