With the Ravens stupid loss on Monday night (really Joe Flacco? 16 yards of offense in the first half?), I fell to 9-3-1 on the week instead of 10-2-1. Still my best week yet by a mile. I'm now above .500 on the season, sitting at 51-47-5 (67-36 straight up). I keep forgetting to do the Lock and Upset thing so let's just forget about that. Here are the week 8 picks:
Lions (5-2) @ Broncos (2-4)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: None (Stafford still questionable)
If Stafford plays, I'll pick with the line as DET by 3. If Hill plays, I'll say it's a pick em.
These are two teams with opposite surges of momentum. Detroit has lost 2 straight at home, their coach is perceived as an angry sweaty-toothed madman, their best defensive player is perceived as a dirty, arrogant, unrepentent prick, and their quarterback is hurt for the 7th time in 3 years, though really it's nothing serious and he should be fine.
Denver just eeked out a win against a winless team with their backup QB and suddenly Tim Tebow is the king of the freaking universe. Even LeBron James took to his Twitter to congratulate Tebow, saying quote: "he's just a winner." That statement is dripping with laughable, delicious irony. But rather than take the easy route by saying "how would LeBron know anything about being a winner?" I'm going to attack LeBron's motives.
Remember after The Decision when LeBron went from an averagely-liked athlete to a Top 5 Most Hated athlete in just one week, and pretty much everybody said the same thing: "He's gotta fire his entire PR crew." Well, apparently his new PR people are telling him to try to associate himself with likeable athletes. He's been Tweeting the praises of Tebow for years, trying to piggyback on perhaps the most beloved athlete in the country, hoping some of the love will someone fall on to him. Sorry LeBron, it's not working. Not even close. Nice try though.
Back to Tebow. Like I said last week, I have turned a corner and really started to like him as an actual NFL quarterback. I've always liked him as a person, because I have two eyes a beating heart. Tebow is a sincere, humble, hard-working raised-by-missionaries athlete who doesn't rub his faith in people's faces. No offense to Kurt Warner, whom I also like, but every single question doesn't need to be answered with "Well first of all, let me thank my personal Lord and Savior..."
But as an actual quarterback, I've done a 180 on Tebow. I think he'll have a good career, I think he'll win plenty of games, and I actually think Denver might be in playoff contention as soon as next year. Of course, Tebow the Person will always outshine Tebow the Player, but that's okay. He's unconventional and quirky, but he gets the job done. Will he ever lead Denver to the Super Bowl? I highly, highly doubt it. But am I scared of facing him this Sunday? Heck yes I am.
Fortunately, Denver doesn't have the weapons on offense that San Fran and Atlanta do. No Gore, no Turner, no Vernon Davis or Roddy White. Just a banged-up Moreno and the harmless Eddie Royal. Tebow doesn't have weapons. But as I heard on the radio yesterday, perhaps Tebow is the weapon.
[Real quick sidenote, speaking of radio. My personal nemesis, Sean Baligan, also known as the Worst Talk Show Host in the History of Radio, is officially gone from ESPN 96.1, never to be heard from again.
When I noticed Terp wasn't saying "Sean, Terp and Killer" at all yesterday, I thought something was fishy and called the show. Indeed, the producer of the show told me "Sean left the show yesterday to pursue new ventures. It was unexpected."
To be honest with you, I am having a rough month emotionally with family and home and new baby and stress at work and all those wonderful, crazy things, and this might have been the exact bit of good news that I needed to get me through the next two weeks. I nearly cried. I just said to the producer "Thank you so much. That's great news." It was like a tremendous weight lifted off my shoulders. You might think I'm kidding, but I'm totally serious.
You can't possibly imagine the depths of my hatred for Sean Baligan as a radio personality. He and I had an ongoing email dialogue in which I consistently begged him to quit his job. I routinely told him how terrible he was, but it wasn't just mean critical stuff. I gave him plenty of practical tips for improving, which he never implemented. I told him that his show was a 0.001 out of 10, and Huge was a 0.002, and thus I was listening to Huge now, just to ever-so-slightly increase the ratings of the Huge show in hopes that Sean would be fired. I actually preferred listening to commercials to either show.
I truly believe that my emails were instrumental in Sean's departure, and so, to all you sports-loving, radio-listening people in West Michigan - you're welcome.]
Anyway, back to Tebow. The dude is developing into a quality NFL quarterback, something I never thought he would be. But as of today, he's no where near ready. He's raw, unpolished, doesn't have an offensive coordinator who caters to his style (yet), and doesn't have any decent skill position players to work with. He has a sloppy release and accuracy issues, and he takes too many sacks. In short, he's a dead duck against Detroit's dominant defensive line. He'll probably make a few exciting plays, probably extend a couple plays with his feet, and maybe run for 30 or 40 yards. But in the end, he doesn't have the tools to put up big offensive numbers. Yet.
Detroit's offense will be without Best and possibly without Stafford, but they should still dominate. The toughest matchup once again goes to Jeff Backus, who has faced excellent pass rushers in 7 of his 8 games. Von Miller may be a rookie, but he's got 6 sacks already, which is incredible. Backus will need some help. But thankfully, Elvis Dumervil is out with an ankle injury, so Robert Ayers will play the other DE position. That's a huge advantage for Detroit.
The only other decent player on Denver's defense is 33 year old Champ Bailey, who will clamp down on Calvin with relative success. But the linebakers stink, the DTs stink, and Detroit should be able to have their way offensively, even with backups.
The key to this entire game is keeping the crowd out of it, and that is accomplish by keeping Tebow off the field. Detroit needs to limit the 3 and outs, which is tough to do without a running game. Hopefully Linehan redeems himself and calls a ton of short passes this week. For that type of game plan, I actually prefer Shaun Hill to an injured Stafford. I obviously want Stafford to play, but if he doesn't I don't think it affects the game very much at all. It takes away the deep pass, but that's about it.
We've currently got Chicago, Atlanta and Tampa chasing us in the Wildcard race. If we lose and any of those teams win, it's tied up. We can't let that happen. Not with the Packers poised to go 15-1. Detroit needs to start thinking Wildcard, and it's not gonna be easy in the NFC. It's probably going to require 11 wins to be safe. Detroit NEEDS to win this game, and they will win this game. 27-13.
Colts (0-7) @ Titans (3-3)
Predicted Line: TEN by 9.5
Actual Line: TEN by 9
Could this be the week that Chris Johnson finally does something??? He has only rushed for more than 55 yards one time this year. His YPC of 2.9 is dead last among running backs with at least 40 carries. He has fewer fantasy points that Michael Bush and Early Doucet. And his average draft position was 5.25 in fantasy leagues. Now he faces the 31st ranked rushing defense. Somethings gotta give.
Most likely, CJ will continue to struggle on most plays, but will break 1 or 2 big gains and surpass 100 yards. I don't love the Titans covering 10 points, but I really can't pick in favor of the Colts until I'm convinced they are trying to win. Tennessee 20-10.
Jags (2-5) @ Texans (4-3)
Predicted Line: HOU by 9.5
Actual Line: HOU by 9.5
After watching the Jags D completely obliterate the Ravens last Monday, I am very tempted to pick them. Blaine Gabbert hasn't shown any reason to believe he can play in the NFL, but the Texans defense without Mario Williams doesn't frighten me very much. I'm sure the combination of Andre and Arian will allow the Texans to gain more than 16 yards in the 1st half, but I still want the points. Texans win 23-14.
Vikings (1-6) @ Panthers (2-5)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line: CAR by 3
I was able to watch some of the Packers-Vikings last week, and Christian Ponder looked really decent. His stats were ugly, but against the best team in the league he held his own. He was clearly intelligent and confident, and had better speed than I expected. Overall, a huge upgrade over McNabb. Now he faces one of the worst defenses in the league, and that defense will have no choice but to put 8 in the box. Minnesota doesn't have any receivers, especially with Harvin hurt, but I still wonder if Ponder might be a sneaky good play in fantasy this week.
Cam Newton on the other hand has pretty much become a must-start every week. That Panthers offense is rolling. It's only a matter of time before Ron Rivera gets their defense to play too. They'll be good next year. But they still suck right now, and Minnesota has the three best players in this game: Jared Allen (11 sacks so far), Kevin Williams, and of course Peterson. I like the Vikes on the road, 27-24.
Saints (5-2) @ Rams (0-6)
Predicted Line: NO by 13.5
Actual Line: NO by 13
Bad news for Rams fans: This will be the 7th straight blowout loss.
Good news for Rams fans: Your next four games are @ARZ, @CLE, SEA, ARZ.
It's always risky to pick road favorites to cover huge spreads, and it's usually risky to pick the Saints to cover huge spreads. But you just can't pick the Rams right now. They are not only 0-6, but they are 0-6 ATS, which is much more heinous. I'll take New Orleans by 14.
Cardinals (1-5) @ Ravens (4-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 10.5
Actual Line: BAL by 13
Going to fly though the rest but to keep it interesting let's do them in Haiku form.
Cards stink, Harbaugh pissed
Wells hurt, Flacco embarrased
Ravens win big time
Baltimore 34-6.
Dolphins (0-6) @ Giants (4-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 8.5
Actual Line: NYG by 9.5
Fins can keep games close
G-men without best player
That's Tuck, not Eli
Giants 17-13.
Redskins (3-3) @ Bills (4-2)
Predicted Line: BUF by 6
Actual Line: BUF by 6
Skins offense all hurt
Thats Moss, Hightower, Cooley
and two lineman too
I like the Bills 13-3.
Pats (5-1) @ Steelers (5-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 3
Elite teams with flaws
Brady off bye is deadly
He always kills Pitt
Patriots 27-17.
Browns (3-3) @ 49ers (5-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 10
Actual Line: SF by 8.5
Browns are crap, crap, crap
But Alex Smith 9-point fave?
I guess I take points
SF 21-13.
Bengals (4-2) @ Seahawks (2-4)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1.5
Actual Line: CIN by 3
Benson suspended
Seahawks always good at home
Hate NFC West!
Seattle 23-20.
Cowboys (3-3) @ Eagles (2-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3
Actual Line: PHI by 3.5
Hype, hype, hype, hype, hype
Hype, hype, Rob Ryan's hair, hype
Hype, Hype, HYPE, HYPE, HYPE!!!!!!
Dallas 26-24.
Chargers (4-2) @ Chiefs (3-3)
Predicted Line: SD by 4.5
Actual Line: SD by 4
Rivers overdue
Cassel consistently stinks
Chiefs D keeps it close
Bolts 23-16.
Happy Halloween. Go Lions.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Friday, October 21, 2011
Week 7 Picks
*Off to a blistering 9-2-1 week (8-4 straight-up), with tonight's game pending. Ravens should roll and I should be 10-2-1. That would be pretty awesome. See my recaps of the games below ...
Week 7 Picks
Four new starting quarterbacks this week. Ponder, Tebow, Beck and Palmer. All strange and surprising in their own ways. Two injured QBs as well (Bradford and Tavaris) so we should see AJ Feeley and Charlie Whitehurst in the compelling NFC West. Lots of other significant injuries, including some (Jeff Otah, Joe Haden) that I wasn’t aware of last week when I made my crappy picks. We’ve got our first London game, a few potential blowouts, and two games with huge NFC Wildcard implications (Bucs-Bears, Lions-Falcons.)
I went 7-6 last week (9-4 straight up), bringing my total to a very disappointing 42-44-4 (59-31) on the season.
Here are the week 7 picks:
Falcons (3-2) @ Lions (5-1)
Line: DET by 3.5
Two weeks ago, this line might have been 7 or 8. What a difference two weeks of momentum has made. The Falcons just handed Backdoor Cam his first ATS loss, while the Lions lost their first game and their running back. They’ve quickly fallen from America’s unbeatable sweetheart to ‘Oh, oops, maybe they can’t run, stop the run, or stop the pass.” Amazing how the national media can be swung so easily. If we tackle Delanie Walker one yard earlier, Detroit is 6-0 and Herm Edwards is raving about Matthew Stafford as a possible MVP candidate.
Unfortunately, Sunday’s game was overshadowed by the now infamous handshake. My first inclination was to say “Who cares about the dang handshake, let’s focus on the actual game.” But upon reflection, the game really wasn’t all that exciting. Here’s what happened: San Fran won a defense-controlled battle of field position because they had a better punter and a better punt returner. That’s pretty much it. Sounds lame and boring, but it’s pretty much the summary. Sure, Stafford could have played better and a few more tosses to Megatron might’ve helped. But the bottom line: San Fran won a boring battle of 3 and outs, and their punter was awesome.
Having watched the handshake on Youtube a few times, I can’t help but think less of Jim Schwartz. Yeah, Harbaugh wasn’t the image of classiness and sportsmanship. And since he has a history of midfield confrontation (remember the ‘What the hell was that?’ game after Stanford ran up the score on Pete Carroll and USC), I am trying to give Schwartz the benefit of the doubt. But I just can’t. Whatever Harbaugh said to him, even if it was “F you, you skunk-haired loser,” Schwartz overreacted. He acted like an imbecile. It was embarrassing to watch, and each time you watch it his actions become less defensible.
Weirdly, most national commentators are blaming Harbaugh, calling him classless and arrogant. Maybe true. He does have that reputation. But he wasn’t the one chasing the other guy 40 yards down the field and then refusing to apologize. I lost a lot of respect for Schwartz, which is odd because I didn’t have much respect for him in the first place. He’s a good motivator, a great defensive mind, and a fiery competitor. But the jumping fistpumps and raging obscenities don’t really make him endearing to me. This whole scene also makes him a hypocrite, considering he was shouting the F-bomb at Dez Bryant a few weeks ago. Between this incident and the stupid skunk haircut, let’s just say Schwartz isn’t my favorite coach. However, he’s got the Lions at 5-1, and that’s all I really care about.
On to the game this Sunday … it’s Detroit’s third straight home game, and for some reason that has me more worried than optimistic. Coming off their first loss, it’ll be necessary for Detroit to respond with poise and precision on the field, rather than dumb penalties and hissy fits. In other words, I’m afraid that they’ll take on the personality of their head coach. It’s time for the veteran leaders to prove their worth in the locker room and have the team ready to play. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t really have any veterans with lots of winning experience. What are Raiola and Backus going to say? “Well guys, 5-0 was fun, but seriously, what did you expect, we’re the Lions.” Everybody talks about Stafford as a great leader of men and all that crap, but this is his chance to prove it. Let’s see how unflappable he is.
Atlanta scares me because they’ve already responded to adversity. They lost their opener to Chicago, they got trounced by Green Bay at home, and yet they aren’t freaking out. They have a smart and calm quarterback, led by a smart and calm head coach, and that’s a difficult combo to beat. Michael Turner gives them a better-than-average running threat, Tony Gonzalez gives them 15 years of experience and intelligence, and Roddy White is considerably better than any receiver Detroit has faced yet.
Chris Houston and the secondary are facing their toughest test of the season, and the best QB we’ve seen yet. Matt Ryan always struggles on the road, but he’s better indoors than out. Our biggest advantage is, as usual, on the defensive line. Suh should wreak havoc, and the rest of the guys will continue to rotate and use their fresh legs to generate a pass rush with 4 linemen. That’s the key, because Matt Ryan is smart enough to burn the blitz. If we pressure the passer without blitzing the linebackers, it gives us a chance.
The Falcons have a few playmakers on defense, and a pair of solid pass rushers in Abraham and Edwards. Their linebackers are better than average, and the corners are good but not great. Calvin has a somewhat tough matchup with Dunta Robinson, but I’m not too worried. The bigger concern for Detroit’s offense is Matt Stafford.
Since the first two games of the season, Stafford has been playing subtly worse each game. Inconsistency, inaccuracy, bad decision-making. Nothing terrible, but not enough to light up the scoreboard. We’ve been punting too much, throwing to Calvin too little, and settling for field goals in the red zone. A lot of the blame falls on Scott Linehan, who needs to stop wasting time with run plays. But Stafford seems to have forgotten how to read defenses and look off safeties. Either that or defenses have figured him out. Hopefully it’s the former.
With Jahvid Best concussed and the Ronnie Brown trade falling through because of Harrison’s ‘undisclosed medical issues,’ the Lions’ running game is completely depleted. It’s just Morris and Keiland Williams, two slow bruisers who won’t ever bring 8 in the box, even on 3rd and 1. If I were Linehan, I’d plan on passing 50 times this week. Short, quick, accurate passes. Use the whole field, use all the receivers. In other words, take a page from the New England playbook.
Atlanta has the edge at quarterback and running back, but other than that, Detroit actually has more talent than the guys who went 13-3 last year. I like our defensive line to dominate and make Matt Ryan really struggle. He hasn’t been the same since losing LG Harvey Diehl in free agency. I’ll take Detroit 27-23.
Been working on the house pretty much nonstop the last two weeks. Consequently, haven't been able to watch the Lions games. Don't worry, I've listened to the last two on the radio, and then rewatched parts. Although this game wasn't really worth rewatching.
This was basically an exact replica of the previous game. The defense created two turnovers and played good enough to win, but the offense was stagnant. Five field goals in the last two games and only three TDs. Three of those field goals were from the 12 yard line or closer.
In both games, the opposing quarterbacks had QB ratings of 63 and 60. We're getting to the passer, we're getting interceptions, and we're forcing punts. The defense hasn't been dominant, but it's been dang good. But the offense just isn't clicking. As my astute wife said, "Stafford has lost his mojo." She also blames Pettigrew for dropping too many passes and wonders why they don't throw more passes to the unstoppable monster named Megatron. She could easily replace Jon Gruden with that analysis. Seriously.
After completely proving me wrong through five games, Matt Stafford is turning into the quarterback I feared he would be. Sloppy, lazy, inaccurate. To quote from July 18:
[yeah, Stafford is going to put up good numbers this season. Maybe great numbers. But when you're counting on him to give you a TD in the two-minute drill ... you're going to be disappointed most of the time.]
There's no use beating a dead horse. I've said enough negative things about Stafford to fill a small book. Let's just let his play on the field do the talking. The last two weeks, it's said "I'm bored, hungover and/or miserable."
Part of the problem this week was obviously the nonexistent running game. Maurice Morris was useless, and so was Scott Linehan for calling 20 runs and only 32 passes. Linehan's genius idea for the first drive of the game: let's give Morris the first two plays, then throw on 3rd and 5! That'll work! No wonder he went 11-25 as a head coach with that kind of terrible, uncreative, play-right-into-the-hands-of-the-defense playcalling. Don't you think Atlanta's defensive coordinator spent the entire week having nightmares about Calvin Johnson, watching that triple-coverage catch against Dallas in slow-motion over and over, moaning in aguish, guzzling anti-depresssants, alone in a dark, musty film room? And then on the sideline on Sunday, he was probably skipping jubiliantly every time Maurice Morris handled the ball.
All throughout the game, Detroit tried to establish the run when Atlanta didn't prove they could stop the pass. It wasn't until 3 minutes left in the game that Linehan stopped running on 1st and 10. We also attempted runs on 1st and 20, 2nd and 10, 2nd and 9 ... just assinine. My blame for the crappy offense goes 60% to Linehan and 35% to Stafford. Stafford may have been put in some unfavorable third down situations, but he's got to do better than 1 for 12 in those instances. The rest of the 5% goes to Pettigrew and Titus Young.
I don't blame Morris or Keiland Williams at all. They are the Inge and Raburn of the Lions. If you keep putting lousy players on the field, expect lousy results.
I really miss Mikel Leshoure right now.
Next week Detroit flies to Denver to face TebowMania. It should be entertaining if nothing else. With Denver's crappy O-line and Tebow's slow release, it might be a feeding frenzy for a very pissed off Ndamukong Suh.
Bears (3-3) vs. Bucs (4-2) in London
Line: CHI by 1.5
Lots of games this week with spreads of 4 or less. This is a straight-up pick, and I’m not crazy about either team. Tampa is still missing Gerald McCoy and will really struggle to contain Matt Forte. But Tampa has played in London before (when they got blown out by the Patriots a couple years ago), and I think that makes a difference. Josh Freeman is the better quarterback, Raheem Morris is the better coach, and I like Tampa by 3.
Chicago's offense is clicking now that they've identified Forte as their best player. That's unfortunate. But Tampa still should have won. Freeman isn't going to throw 4 interceptions very often. Astonishingly, he threw only 6 picks all last year on 474 attempts, compared to 10 this year out of 270 attempts.
Both of these teams are now 4-3, along with the Falcons. Winning the wildcard is not going to be easy in the NFC.
Redskins (3-2) @ Panthers (1-5)
Line: CAR by 2.5
Rex Grossman was off to a nice start, but had one terrible game and got yanked for totally unproven and not-at-all-promising John Beck, proving once again that Mike Shanahan is an idiot. With D+ talent at QB, RB and WR, it’s amazing that Washington started 3-1. In addition, Beck will play without his starting LT and LG. Good thing the Panthers have the league’s worst defense, but I still wouldn’t count on Beck leading the Skins to more than 1 or 2 TDs. That won't be enough to keep up with the wonder known as Cam Newton and the Panthers surprisingly good offense. What the heck is going on with Steve Smith? Did he miss the memo about being washed up? Biggest story in this game is the health of RT Jeff Otah. He’s a gametime decision. He makes Carolina’s running game work. If he plays, I like Carolina by at least 10. If he’s out, I’ll take Carolina by 3. Either way, Panthers cover.
Otah played, Carolina won by 13. They ran the ball 37 times for 175 yards. John Beck wasn't bad for Washington. It didn't help that Santana Moss broke his hand.
Chargers (4-1) @ Jets (3-3)
Line: SD by 2
Here’s an amazing Week 7 fact for you: Mark Sanchez will be the best quarterback the Chargers defense has faced yet. They’ve played Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, and Donovan McNabb. So when you factor that into the 4-1 record, it’s really not impressive. This is their first real test.
The good news for the Bolts is they’re coming off a bye, so Rivers has had two weeks to prepare for the vaunted Jets defense. But with Antonio Gates questionable (meaning indubitably out), Darrelle Revis will eradicate Vincent Jackson and leave Rivers throwing to Malcolm Floyd and the rest of the nobodys. Big game for Ryan Matthews could be in store. Jets are easy to run on, as New England proved two weeks ago.
I don’t feel good about either side, but I feel more good about taking the Jets. They’re home, they’re more desperate, and the matchups fall in their favor.
Jets score 17 unanswered, Chargers fall to 4-2. Three TDs for Plaxico. Rivers was downright terrible. That MVP prediction isn't even going to be close. He's currently 20th in QB rating, behind two rookies and Curtis Painter.
Seahawks (2-3) @ Browns (2-3)
Line: CLE by 3
Don’t understand this line. Are we supposed to believe that Cleveland and Seattle are equal? Even though Seattle is trotting out Charlie Whitehurst? Hmm … both teams are missing their #1 cornerback, Marcus Trufant for Seattle and Joe Haden for Cleveland. Trufant is actually out for the year with a back injury. That probably means you can pencil San Fran into the playoffs, even if they lose their next 3 games. Peyton Hillis is also out for this game, giving Montario Hardesty another start. It doesn’t matter; Seattle is actually the best team in the NFL right now in stopping the run.
Sidenote: how many games has Hillis missed this year now? Three? Including one with an exaggerated case of ‘strep throat,’ where afterwards Hillis admitted that he could have played but his agent told him not to, because of contract issues? Yeah, let’s all keep pretending like the Madden Curse isn’t real. Just ask Drew Brees, who threw a career-high in interceptions last year and then lost to a 7-9 team in the playoffs.
With both teams missing their corners, you’d think this would be an offensive bonanza, but neither team has any good receivers either. Youngsters Greg Little and Doug Baldwin (both rookies if I’m not mistaken) are slowly becoming #1 receivers for these teams. I like both guys in fantasy leagues if you’re desperate. But don’t expect tons of scoring.
I don’t like picking the Browns to cover 3 points, but I like Charlie Whitehurst on the road even less. Cleveland 17-13.
"...don't expect tons of scoring." Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. Browns win 6-3 in arguably the worst game in NFL history. When one team doubles the other team in yards, first downs and time of possesion, and yet can't cover a freaking 3 point spread, that kind of sucks.
Texans (3-3) @ Titans (3-2)
Line: TEN by 3
It’s a little early to say this game determines the winner of the AFC South, but it’s not too early to dismiss Indy and Jacksonville from the discussion. So this game is extremely important. Crappy timing for Houston to be without Andre Johnson. Of course, Mario Williams is out for the year, as is Kenny Britt, so this game sucks overall. Houston has more talent, particularly on the O-line, plus their secondary should be able to shut down Tennessee’s blah receivers. But Hasselbeck is rejuvenated, using the dink-and-dump to wear down defenses and move chains. Houston’s pass rush is pretty much gone without Mario, so that’ll help Hasselbeck a lot. Big game for both running backs, especially Foster. I keep going back and forth, but I’m probably going to side with Houston, 24-20.
Holy crap, speaking of a big game for Foster ... how about 230 total yards and 3 scores? Foster had more yards of offense than the entire Titans team. Chris Johnson is pathetic.
Over the next two weeks, Houston gets Andre Johnson back and plays Jacksonville and Cleveland, while the Titans host the Colts and Bengals. In other words, they'll be 6-3 and 5-3, building up to a climatic week 17 rematch that will decide which team wins the AFC South and gets pulverized by New England in the playoffs.
Broncos (1-4) @ Dolphins (0-5)
Line: MIA by 1.5
In case you live in a cave, Tim Tebow is starting this week for the Broncos. Actually, I’m pretty sure even people living in caves are wearing Tebow jerseys. What you may not have heard is that the 2008 Florida Gators are being honored during this game, meaning the Tebow-mania is going to be even more insane. Between the fact that Miami doesn’t have any real sports fans, and the fact that Tebow is a God in Florida … this is clearly a home game for the Broncos. Thus they should be favored by 3. And I’m obviously picking them. Here’s why:
Tebow isn’t bad. That’s right, I said it. He’s got plenty of mechanical issues which we’re all aware of, and he isn’t tall or accurate or poised in the pocket. He’s not Manning or Brady, and he never will be. But he could be the next Tony Romo, except not quite as strong with the deep ball. He could be a poor man’s Michael Vick, extending plays with his feet for so long that the secondary gets lost. Or, he could be the first Tim Tebow, a lovable leader with an unparalleled will to win and the support of every warm-blooded person in America.
Heck, I hated on Tebow during the 2010 draft like it was my job. I scoffed when Josh McDaniels took him in the first round. And I was right. Tebow wasn’t first-round pick material, and it was ridiculous to make him the primary story of the Draft when guys like Bradford and Suh were being selected. But now, I’ve been sucked in like everybody else. Tebow is going to succeed. He’s going to win some games. He’s going to lead Denver to 6-10 or 7-9 this year and retain the starting job next year. He's going to become the most beloved Bronco since Elway, even if he only wins 8 games a year. And he’s definitely going to beat the crap out of Miami, who is unabashedly losing on purpose so their coach will be fired and they can start anew with Andrew Luck. I like Denver, 27-10, and I freaking like Tim Tebow.
Watching Sunday Night Football with Alie when the highlights of Denver-Miami came on. Tebow got sacked, looked sad, then scored, scored again, high-fived a coach, then prayed on the sideline while everybody celebrated. My wife asks "Is he single?"
That pretty much sums it up, yeah?
Chiefs (2-3) @ Raiders (4-2)
Line: OAK by 4.5
My thoughts on the Palmer trade: both teams got what they wanted, but Cincinnati won the trade by a mile.
The NFL is all about drafting. Teams that draft well win Super Bowls. The three best drafting teams over the last 10 years have been Green Bay, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. When you don’t have a 1st round pick, it’s a freaking big deal. Well, Oakland didn’t have one last year, and now they don’t have one in 2012. It’s an enormous risk, and not a heck of a lot of potential reward. It made sense when Arizona mortgaged their future for Kevin Kolb. Maybe he was going to stink, but at least he was young and unknown. Giving up 1st round picks in consecutive years for Richard Seymour and Carson Palmer, both in the tail-end of their careers, is not smart business for the Raiders.
So it was a heck of a steal for Cincinnati. Actually, it was the best trade I’ve seen any team pull off in a really long time.
But for Oakland, I don’t completely hate it. Sure, Palmer was awful last season, but maybe a new environment will help him. It worked for Matt Hasselbeck. However, it didn’t work for guys like Jake Delhomme, Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb, and the list goes on. But with Jason Campbell out for awhile, probably the rest of the year, it was a well-calculated risk. They gave up too much, but they probably had to do it. Why - because they’re 4-2. Nobody thought they would be 4-2 right now. If they were 2-4, they wouldn't have made this trade. But they have the league’s leading rusher and tons of confidence on defense and they seem to have found a coach they truly like for the first time in nearly a decade. So maybe this is their time. Maybe they can take advantage of the crappy AFC West and the lazy Chargers and sneak into the playoffs at 10-6. I doubt it, but maybe. They’ll run all over the Chiefs and win here, 26-10.
I don't mean to brag, but I was a freaking genius at 10:53 Saturday night, when I wrote "I am switching to KC...I don't trust Kyle Boller." Talk about a providential week. McFadden got hurt in the first quarter, and it was pretty much over at that point. KC was horrible, but Oakland was worse. Three quarterbacks attempted at least 14 passes in this game. Their QB ratings were 38.3 (Cassel), 22.3 (Boller), and 17.3 (Palmer). Now we remember why a pick-six was called a 'Palmer' last season. Holy crap, Oakland is screwed.
Raiders (4-3) next three weeks: BYE, DEN, @ SD
Chargers (4-2) next three: @KC, GB, OAK
Broncos (2-4) next three: DET, @OAK, @ KC
Chiefs (3-3) next three: SD, MIA, DEN (all home)
Assuming San Diego blows either the KC or Oakland game, they'll be 5-4. That's a high liklihood. So if Tebow can keep going Tebowesque things and win 2 of the next 3, we're looking at a DEN-KC-OAK tie at 4-5, all trailing the Bolts by one game going into week 11. What I'm saying is ... don't count the Broncos out of the playoffs.
Steelers (4-2) @ Cardinals (1-4)
Line: PIT by 4
When former Steelers coordinator Ken Whisenhunt left to be Arizona’s head coach, he took Russ Grimm and fifty other assistants with them. The Cardinals probably know the Steelers better than any team knows any team. Plus Arizona is finally healthy, Polamalu is playing hurt, Roethlisberger stinks in games he should win, and Larry Fitzgerald has a history of playing really well against Pittsburgh. A bunch of reasons to take the Cards.
But alas, the NFC West is a cruel temptress. I’m not getting fooled again. Steelers 26-20.
New rule when picking games: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Complete Lack of a Pass Rush = Steelers win.
Rams (0-5) @ Cowboys (2-3)
Line: DAL by 12.5
When I talked about the Rams way back in August, I noted that their schedule began with 5 brutal games in the first 7, and then went to a stretch of 7 should-win games. I said they needed to get off to at least a 3-4 start and they would be fine. Well, that didn’t happen. For a few reasons. One, Sam Bradford is playing like crap. Two, the secondary has reverted to its awful 2009 days. Third, they have the league's 32nd run defense. Once they fall behind, they can't stop anybody. And fourth, offensive injuries. They lost Danny Amendola, which might not seem like much, but the slot guy is essential in a Josh McDaniels offense. They can’t keep Steven Jackson on the field. Now Bradford has an ankle sprain, and is a gametime decision, which is a polite way of saying he’s out for two weeks. St. Louis has lost every game by at least 7 and an average of 17. Now they head to Dallas, who finally has two healthy receivers. A.J. Feeley is playing quarterback, so I don’t care that they added Brandon Lloyd. This game won’t be close. Cowboys 28, Rams 13.
Sidenote: Whatever Tony Romo does, it’s front-page news. Win big, win little, lose big, lose little. It doesn’t matter. If he’s playing, it becomes the most fascinating storyline in the NFL. I am so freaking sick of it, and thus I’ve vowed to not even talk about him until at least week 12. I don’t care if he throws 15 touchdowns this week. He and I are done.
A few days after my A League fantasy draft, I discovered I had made a major mistake by not taking DeMarco Murray. (Mainly because it's a keeper league). I was reading some column about the Cowboys offense and how much they liked the Oklahoma rookie, so I checked him out on YouTube. I honestly thought I was watching highlights of Adrian Peterson. The combo of strength and speed was unbelievable. I couldn't stop thinking "How did this guy not get drafted until the 3rd round?!" Apparently it had something to do with a toe injury in 2007 or something. What?
When he got dropped by the lucky bastard who drafted him, I was too lazy to pick him up. Felix Jones was getting all the carries. I knew Murray would be great when he got his chance, but I thought his chance was far away. I planned to stash Murray on my bench near the end of the year. Then, Felix got hurt, I missed the waiver frenzy, and Murray ran for 253 yards. I might have been the only person alive who wasn't all that surprised.
I did manage to pick up Murray in 9 of the other leagues. Not surprisingly, I went 10-2 this week in fantasy, losing the A League for the sixth straight week, but winning almost everywhere else. My only other loss was 226-229 to a bastard with Arian Foster.
Suddenly, Felix Jones is going to be looking for a job. Murray will be the starter in Dallas for many years. And I am probably going to trade my entire A League team for him.
Packers (6-0) @ Vikings (1-5)
Line: GB by 8
Packers are the anti-Rams. They’ve killed everyone they played, except New Orleans. They are blowing everybody out by halftime. Rodgers is playing like the hands-down MVP, and the defense gets better each week. Every week their line is too low. I’m pretty sure they’re 6-0 ATS this year.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is going with rookie Christian Ponder at quarterback, benching Chunky Soup McNabb. Donovan had gone six straight games without 230 passing yards. He’s got only 4 TDs in 6 games. His completion percentage is 60.3%. It’s safe to say his career is done.
Ponder will do a lot of handing-off to AP, and the Packers will put 9 in the box. On 3rd downs when Ponder has to pass, he’s really going to struggle. I’d guess his final stat line is something like 8/20, 75 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. Not going to be a memorable first game. I’m surprised Minny didn’t wait another week instead of throwing their rookie QB at the Packers and watching him get devoured. Maybe it’ll be a good learning experience. Build character or something. Packers 31-14.
No freaking idea how Minnesota manged to keep this game within 8, but since I went 9-2-1 this week I'm not going to complain. Rodgers has played 7 games this year, and his lowest QB Rating yet is 111.4. Average for the year is 125.7, with 20 TDs and 3 picks. And a 7-0 record. Somewhere, Brett Favre is getting drunk and watching highlights of the '96 Packers, muttering under his breath as he falls asleep ... "he's like a kid out there ... he's a gunslinger ...real comfortable jeans ..."
Colts (0-6) @ Saints (4-2)
Line: NO by 14
As I’ve said before, the Saints don’t like to cover big spreads. Sean Payton is 3-10 ATS against double-digit spreads. It’s not that they lose against bad teams, they just don’t blow people out very often. Probably because they always lack an inside running game. Well, this game will be an exception. Saints are clicking, they are pissed off, and they are at home against a tremendously bad team that isn’t trying. I’ll take New Orleans 42-7. Be very afraid if you're playing against Brees this week.
Honest question: are the Colts really that bad, or are they losing on purpose? I seriously have no idea. Maybe both? They're going to be in serious contention for Luck, which is going to make the Internet explode.
Week 7 Picks
Four new starting quarterbacks this week. Ponder, Tebow, Beck and Palmer. All strange and surprising in their own ways. Two injured QBs as well (Bradford and Tavaris) so we should see AJ Feeley and Charlie Whitehurst in the compelling NFC West. Lots of other significant injuries, including some (Jeff Otah, Joe Haden) that I wasn’t aware of last week when I made my crappy picks. We’ve got our first London game, a few potential blowouts, and two games with huge NFC Wildcard implications (Bucs-Bears, Lions-Falcons.)
I went 7-6 last week (9-4 straight up), bringing my total to a very disappointing 42-44-4 (59-31) on the season.
Here are the week 7 picks:
Falcons (3-2) @ Lions (5-1)
Line: DET by 3.5
Two weeks ago, this line might have been 7 or 8. What a difference two weeks of momentum has made. The Falcons just handed Backdoor Cam his first ATS loss, while the Lions lost their first game and their running back. They’ve quickly fallen from America’s unbeatable sweetheart to ‘Oh, oops, maybe they can’t run, stop the run, or stop the pass.” Amazing how the national media can be swung so easily. If we tackle Delanie Walker one yard earlier, Detroit is 6-0 and Herm Edwards is raving about Matthew Stafford as a possible MVP candidate.
Unfortunately, Sunday’s game was overshadowed by the now infamous handshake. My first inclination was to say “Who cares about the dang handshake, let’s focus on the actual game.” But upon reflection, the game really wasn’t all that exciting. Here’s what happened: San Fran won a defense-controlled battle of field position because they had a better punter and a better punt returner. That’s pretty much it. Sounds lame and boring, but it’s pretty much the summary. Sure, Stafford could have played better and a few more tosses to Megatron might’ve helped. But the bottom line: San Fran won a boring battle of 3 and outs, and their punter was awesome.
Having watched the handshake on Youtube a few times, I can’t help but think less of Jim Schwartz. Yeah, Harbaugh wasn’t the image of classiness and sportsmanship. And since he has a history of midfield confrontation (remember the ‘What the hell was that?’ game after Stanford ran up the score on Pete Carroll and USC), I am trying to give Schwartz the benefit of the doubt. But I just can’t. Whatever Harbaugh said to him, even if it was “F you, you skunk-haired loser,” Schwartz overreacted. He acted like an imbecile. It was embarrassing to watch, and each time you watch it his actions become less defensible.
Weirdly, most national commentators are blaming Harbaugh, calling him classless and arrogant. Maybe true. He does have that reputation. But he wasn’t the one chasing the other guy 40 yards down the field and then refusing to apologize. I lost a lot of respect for Schwartz, which is odd because I didn’t have much respect for him in the first place. He’s a good motivator, a great defensive mind, and a fiery competitor. But the jumping fistpumps and raging obscenities don’t really make him endearing to me. This whole scene also makes him a hypocrite, considering he was shouting the F-bomb at Dez Bryant a few weeks ago. Between this incident and the stupid skunk haircut, let’s just say Schwartz isn’t my favorite coach. However, he’s got the Lions at 5-1, and that’s all I really care about.
On to the game this Sunday … it’s Detroit’s third straight home game, and for some reason that has me more worried than optimistic. Coming off their first loss, it’ll be necessary for Detroit to respond with poise and precision on the field, rather than dumb penalties and hissy fits. In other words, I’m afraid that they’ll take on the personality of their head coach. It’s time for the veteran leaders to prove their worth in the locker room and have the team ready to play. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t really have any veterans with lots of winning experience. What are Raiola and Backus going to say? “Well guys, 5-0 was fun, but seriously, what did you expect, we’re the Lions.” Everybody talks about Stafford as a great leader of men and all that crap, but this is his chance to prove it. Let’s see how unflappable he is.
Atlanta scares me because they’ve already responded to adversity. They lost their opener to Chicago, they got trounced by Green Bay at home, and yet they aren’t freaking out. They have a smart and calm quarterback, led by a smart and calm head coach, and that’s a difficult combo to beat. Michael Turner gives them a better-than-average running threat, Tony Gonzalez gives them 15 years of experience and intelligence, and Roddy White is considerably better than any receiver Detroit has faced yet.
Chris Houston and the secondary are facing their toughest test of the season, and the best QB we’ve seen yet. Matt Ryan always struggles on the road, but he’s better indoors than out. Our biggest advantage is, as usual, on the defensive line. Suh should wreak havoc, and the rest of the guys will continue to rotate and use their fresh legs to generate a pass rush with 4 linemen. That’s the key, because Matt Ryan is smart enough to burn the blitz. If we pressure the passer without blitzing the linebackers, it gives us a chance.
The Falcons have a few playmakers on defense, and a pair of solid pass rushers in Abraham and Edwards. Their linebackers are better than average, and the corners are good but not great. Calvin has a somewhat tough matchup with Dunta Robinson, but I’m not too worried. The bigger concern for Detroit’s offense is Matt Stafford.
Since the first two games of the season, Stafford has been playing subtly worse each game. Inconsistency, inaccuracy, bad decision-making. Nothing terrible, but not enough to light up the scoreboard. We’ve been punting too much, throwing to Calvin too little, and settling for field goals in the red zone. A lot of the blame falls on Scott Linehan, who needs to stop wasting time with run plays. But Stafford seems to have forgotten how to read defenses and look off safeties. Either that or defenses have figured him out. Hopefully it’s the former.
With Jahvid Best concussed and the Ronnie Brown trade falling through because of Harrison’s ‘undisclosed medical issues,’ the Lions’ running game is completely depleted. It’s just Morris and Keiland Williams, two slow bruisers who won’t ever bring 8 in the box, even on 3rd and 1. If I were Linehan, I’d plan on passing 50 times this week. Short, quick, accurate passes. Use the whole field, use all the receivers. In other words, take a page from the New England playbook.
Atlanta has the edge at quarterback and running back, but other than that, Detroit actually has more talent than the guys who went 13-3 last year. I like our defensive line to dominate and make Matt Ryan really struggle. He hasn’t been the same since losing LG Harvey Diehl in free agency. I’ll take Detroit 27-23.
Been working on the house pretty much nonstop the last two weeks. Consequently, haven't been able to watch the Lions games. Don't worry, I've listened to the last two on the radio, and then rewatched parts. Although this game wasn't really worth rewatching.
This was basically an exact replica of the previous game. The defense created two turnovers and played good enough to win, but the offense was stagnant. Five field goals in the last two games and only three TDs. Three of those field goals were from the 12 yard line or closer.
In both games, the opposing quarterbacks had QB ratings of 63 and 60. We're getting to the passer, we're getting interceptions, and we're forcing punts. The defense hasn't been dominant, but it's been dang good. But the offense just isn't clicking. As my astute wife said, "Stafford has lost his mojo." She also blames Pettigrew for dropping too many passes and wonders why they don't throw more passes to the unstoppable monster named Megatron. She could easily replace Jon Gruden with that analysis. Seriously.
After completely proving me wrong through five games, Matt Stafford is turning into the quarterback I feared he would be. Sloppy, lazy, inaccurate. To quote from July 18:
[yeah, Stafford is going to put up good numbers this season. Maybe great numbers. But when you're counting on him to give you a TD in the two-minute drill ... you're going to be disappointed most of the time.]
There's no use beating a dead horse. I've said enough negative things about Stafford to fill a small book. Let's just let his play on the field do the talking. The last two weeks, it's said "I'm bored, hungover and/or miserable."
Part of the problem this week was obviously the nonexistent running game. Maurice Morris was useless, and so was Scott Linehan for calling 20 runs and only 32 passes. Linehan's genius idea for the first drive of the game: let's give Morris the first two plays, then throw on 3rd and 5! That'll work! No wonder he went 11-25 as a head coach with that kind of terrible, uncreative, play-right-into-the-hands-of-the-defense playcalling. Don't you think Atlanta's defensive coordinator spent the entire week having nightmares about Calvin Johnson, watching that triple-coverage catch against Dallas in slow-motion over and over, moaning in aguish, guzzling anti-depresssants, alone in a dark, musty film room? And then on the sideline on Sunday, he was probably skipping jubiliantly every time Maurice Morris handled the ball.
All throughout the game, Detroit tried to establish the run when Atlanta didn't prove they could stop the pass. It wasn't until 3 minutes left in the game that Linehan stopped running on 1st and 10. We also attempted runs on 1st and 20, 2nd and 10, 2nd and 9 ... just assinine. My blame for the crappy offense goes 60% to Linehan and 35% to Stafford. Stafford may have been put in some unfavorable third down situations, but he's got to do better than 1 for 12 in those instances. The rest of the 5% goes to Pettigrew and Titus Young.
I don't blame Morris or Keiland Williams at all. They are the Inge and Raburn of the Lions. If you keep putting lousy players on the field, expect lousy results.
I really miss Mikel Leshoure right now.
Next week Detroit flies to Denver to face TebowMania. It should be entertaining if nothing else. With Denver's crappy O-line and Tebow's slow release, it might be a feeding frenzy for a very pissed off Ndamukong Suh.
Bears (3-3) vs. Bucs (4-2) in London
Line: CHI by 1.5
Lots of games this week with spreads of 4 or less. This is a straight-up pick, and I’m not crazy about either team. Tampa is still missing Gerald McCoy and will really struggle to contain Matt Forte. But Tampa has played in London before (when they got blown out by the Patriots a couple years ago), and I think that makes a difference. Josh Freeman is the better quarterback, Raheem Morris is the better coach, and I like Tampa by 3.
Chicago's offense is clicking now that they've identified Forte as their best player. That's unfortunate. But Tampa still should have won. Freeman isn't going to throw 4 interceptions very often. Astonishingly, he threw only 6 picks all last year on 474 attempts, compared to 10 this year out of 270 attempts.
Both of these teams are now 4-3, along with the Falcons. Winning the wildcard is not going to be easy in the NFC.
Redskins (3-2) @ Panthers (1-5)
Line: CAR by 2.5
Rex Grossman was off to a nice start, but had one terrible game and got yanked for totally unproven and not-at-all-promising John Beck, proving once again that Mike Shanahan is an idiot. With D+ talent at QB, RB and WR, it’s amazing that Washington started 3-1. In addition, Beck will play without his starting LT and LG. Good thing the Panthers have the league’s worst defense, but I still wouldn’t count on Beck leading the Skins to more than 1 or 2 TDs. That won't be enough to keep up with the wonder known as Cam Newton and the Panthers surprisingly good offense. What the heck is going on with Steve Smith? Did he miss the memo about being washed up? Biggest story in this game is the health of RT Jeff Otah. He’s a gametime decision. He makes Carolina’s running game work. If he plays, I like Carolina by at least 10. If he’s out, I’ll take Carolina by 3. Either way, Panthers cover.
Otah played, Carolina won by 13. They ran the ball 37 times for 175 yards. John Beck wasn't bad for Washington. It didn't help that Santana Moss broke his hand.
Chargers (4-1) @ Jets (3-3)
Line: SD by 2
Here’s an amazing Week 7 fact for you: Mark Sanchez will be the best quarterback the Chargers defense has faced yet. They’ve played Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, and Donovan McNabb. So when you factor that into the 4-1 record, it’s really not impressive. This is their first real test.
The good news for the Bolts is they’re coming off a bye, so Rivers has had two weeks to prepare for the vaunted Jets defense. But with Antonio Gates questionable (meaning indubitably out), Darrelle Revis will eradicate Vincent Jackson and leave Rivers throwing to Malcolm Floyd and the rest of the nobodys. Big game for Ryan Matthews could be in store. Jets are easy to run on, as New England proved two weeks ago.
I don’t feel good about either side, but I feel more good about taking the Jets. They’re home, they’re more desperate, and the matchups fall in their favor.
Jets score 17 unanswered, Chargers fall to 4-2. Three TDs for Plaxico. Rivers was downright terrible. That MVP prediction isn't even going to be close. He's currently 20th in QB rating, behind two rookies and Curtis Painter.
Seahawks (2-3) @ Browns (2-3)
Line: CLE by 3
Don’t understand this line. Are we supposed to believe that Cleveland and Seattle are equal? Even though Seattle is trotting out Charlie Whitehurst? Hmm … both teams are missing their #1 cornerback, Marcus Trufant for Seattle and Joe Haden for Cleveland. Trufant is actually out for the year with a back injury. That probably means you can pencil San Fran into the playoffs, even if they lose their next 3 games. Peyton Hillis is also out for this game, giving Montario Hardesty another start. It doesn’t matter; Seattle is actually the best team in the NFL right now in stopping the run.
Sidenote: how many games has Hillis missed this year now? Three? Including one with an exaggerated case of ‘strep throat,’ where afterwards Hillis admitted that he could have played but his agent told him not to, because of contract issues? Yeah, let’s all keep pretending like the Madden Curse isn’t real. Just ask Drew Brees, who threw a career-high in interceptions last year and then lost to a 7-9 team in the playoffs.
With both teams missing their corners, you’d think this would be an offensive bonanza, but neither team has any good receivers either. Youngsters Greg Little and Doug Baldwin (both rookies if I’m not mistaken) are slowly becoming #1 receivers for these teams. I like both guys in fantasy leagues if you’re desperate. But don’t expect tons of scoring.
I don’t like picking the Browns to cover 3 points, but I like Charlie Whitehurst on the road even less. Cleveland 17-13.
"...don't expect tons of scoring." Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. Browns win 6-3 in arguably the worst game in NFL history. When one team doubles the other team in yards, first downs and time of possesion, and yet can't cover a freaking 3 point spread, that kind of sucks.
Texans (3-3) @ Titans (3-2)
Line: TEN by 3
It’s a little early to say this game determines the winner of the AFC South, but it’s not too early to dismiss Indy and Jacksonville from the discussion. So this game is extremely important. Crappy timing for Houston to be without Andre Johnson. Of course, Mario Williams is out for the year, as is Kenny Britt, so this game sucks overall. Houston has more talent, particularly on the O-line, plus their secondary should be able to shut down Tennessee’s blah receivers. But Hasselbeck is rejuvenated, using the dink-and-dump to wear down defenses and move chains. Houston’s pass rush is pretty much gone without Mario, so that’ll help Hasselbeck a lot. Big game for both running backs, especially Foster. I keep going back and forth, but I’m probably going to side with Houston, 24-20.
Holy crap, speaking of a big game for Foster ... how about 230 total yards and 3 scores? Foster had more yards of offense than the entire Titans team. Chris Johnson is pathetic.
Over the next two weeks, Houston gets Andre Johnson back and plays Jacksonville and Cleveland, while the Titans host the Colts and Bengals. In other words, they'll be 6-3 and 5-3, building up to a climatic week 17 rematch that will decide which team wins the AFC South and gets pulverized by New England in the playoffs.
Broncos (1-4) @ Dolphins (0-5)
Line: MIA by 1.5
In case you live in a cave, Tim Tebow is starting this week for the Broncos. Actually, I’m pretty sure even people living in caves are wearing Tebow jerseys. What you may not have heard is that the 2008 Florida Gators are being honored during this game, meaning the Tebow-mania is going to be even more insane. Between the fact that Miami doesn’t have any real sports fans, and the fact that Tebow is a God in Florida … this is clearly a home game for the Broncos. Thus they should be favored by 3. And I’m obviously picking them. Here’s why:
Tebow isn’t bad. That’s right, I said it. He’s got plenty of mechanical issues which we’re all aware of, and he isn’t tall or accurate or poised in the pocket. He’s not Manning or Brady, and he never will be. But he could be the next Tony Romo, except not quite as strong with the deep ball. He could be a poor man’s Michael Vick, extending plays with his feet for so long that the secondary gets lost. Or, he could be the first Tim Tebow, a lovable leader with an unparalleled will to win and the support of every warm-blooded person in America.
Heck, I hated on Tebow during the 2010 draft like it was my job. I scoffed when Josh McDaniels took him in the first round. And I was right. Tebow wasn’t first-round pick material, and it was ridiculous to make him the primary story of the Draft when guys like Bradford and Suh were being selected. But now, I’ve been sucked in like everybody else. Tebow is going to succeed. He’s going to win some games. He’s going to lead Denver to 6-10 or 7-9 this year and retain the starting job next year. He's going to become the most beloved Bronco since Elway, even if he only wins 8 games a year. And he’s definitely going to beat the crap out of Miami, who is unabashedly losing on purpose so their coach will be fired and they can start anew with Andrew Luck. I like Denver, 27-10, and I freaking like Tim Tebow.
Watching Sunday Night Football with Alie when the highlights of Denver-Miami came on. Tebow got sacked, looked sad, then scored, scored again, high-fived a coach, then prayed on the sideline while everybody celebrated. My wife asks "Is he single?"
That pretty much sums it up, yeah?
Chiefs (2-3) @ Raiders (4-2)
Line: OAK by 4.5
My thoughts on the Palmer trade: both teams got what they wanted, but Cincinnati won the trade by a mile.
The NFL is all about drafting. Teams that draft well win Super Bowls. The three best drafting teams over the last 10 years have been Green Bay, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. When you don’t have a 1st round pick, it’s a freaking big deal. Well, Oakland didn’t have one last year, and now they don’t have one in 2012. It’s an enormous risk, and not a heck of a lot of potential reward. It made sense when Arizona mortgaged their future for Kevin Kolb. Maybe he was going to stink, but at least he was young and unknown. Giving up 1st round picks in consecutive years for Richard Seymour and Carson Palmer, both in the tail-end of their careers, is not smart business for the Raiders.
So it was a heck of a steal for Cincinnati. Actually, it was the best trade I’ve seen any team pull off in a really long time.
But for Oakland, I don’t completely hate it. Sure, Palmer was awful last season, but maybe a new environment will help him. It worked for Matt Hasselbeck. However, it didn’t work for guys like Jake Delhomme, Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb, and the list goes on. But with Jason Campbell out for awhile, probably the rest of the year, it was a well-calculated risk. They gave up too much, but they probably had to do it. Why - because they’re 4-2. Nobody thought they would be 4-2 right now. If they were 2-4, they wouldn't have made this trade. But they have the league’s leading rusher and tons of confidence on defense and they seem to have found a coach they truly like for the first time in nearly a decade. So maybe this is their time. Maybe they can take advantage of the crappy AFC West and the lazy Chargers and sneak into the playoffs at 10-6. I doubt it, but maybe. They’ll run all over the Chiefs and win here, 26-10.
I don't mean to brag, but I was a freaking genius at 10:53 Saturday night, when I wrote "I am switching to KC...I don't trust Kyle Boller." Talk about a providential week. McFadden got hurt in the first quarter, and it was pretty much over at that point. KC was horrible, but Oakland was worse. Three quarterbacks attempted at least 14 passes in this game. Their QB ratings were 38.3 (Cassel), 22.3 (Boller), and 17.3 (Palmer). Now we remember why a pick-six was called a 'Palmer' last season. Holy crap, Oakland is screwed.
Raiders (4-3) next three weeks: BYE, DEN, @ SD
Chargers (4-2) next three: @KC, GB, OAK
Broncos (2-4) next three: DET, @OAK, @ KC
Chiefs (3-3) next three: SD, MIA, DEN (all home)
Assuming San Diego blows either the KC or Oakland game, they'll be 5-4. That's a high liklihood. So if Tebow can keep going Tebowesque things and win 2 of the next 3, we're looking at a DEN-KC-OAK tie at 4-5, all trailing the Bolts by one game going into week 11. What I'm saying is ... don't count the Broncos out of the playoffs.
Steelers (4-2) @ Cardinals (1-4)
Line: PIT by 4
When former Steelers coordinator Ken Whisenhunt left to be Arizona’s head coach, he took Russ Grimm and fifty other assistants with them. The Cardinals probably know the Steelers better than any team knows any team. Plus Arizona is finally healthy, Polamalu is playing hurt, Roethlisberger stinks in games he should win, and Larry Fitzgerald has a history of playing really well against Pittsburgh. A bunch of reasons to take the Cards.
But alas, the NFC West is a cruel temptress. I’m not getting fooled again. Steelers 26-20.
New rule when picking games: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Complete Lack of a Pass Rush = Steelers win.
Rams (0-5) @ Cowboys (2-3)
Line: DAL by 12.5
When I talked about the Rams way back in August, I noted that their schedule began with 5 brutal games in the first 7, and then went to a stretch of 7 should-win games. I said they needed to get off to at least a 3-4 start and they would be fine. Well, that didn’t happen. For a few reasons. One, Sam Bradford is playing like crap. Two, the secondary has reverted to its awful 2009 days. Third, they have the league's 32nd run defense. Once they fall behind, they can't stop anybody. And fourth, offensive injuries. They lost Danny Amendola, which might not seem like much, but the slot guy is essential in a Josh McDaniels offense. They can’t keep Steven Jackson on the field. Now Bradford has an ankle sprain, and is a gametime decision, which is a polite way of saying he’s out for two weeks. St. Louis has lost every game by at least 7 and an average of 17. Now they head to Dallas, who finally has two healthy receivers. A.J. Feeley is playing quarterback, so I don’t care that they added Brandon Lloyd. This game won’t be close. Cowboys 28, Rams 13.
Sidenote: Whatever Tony Romo does, it’s front-page news. Win big, win little, lose big, lose little. It doesn’t matter. If he’s playing, it becomes the most fascinating storyline in the NFL. I am so freaking sick of it, and thus I’ve vowed to not even talk about him until at least week 12. I don’t care if he throws 15 touchdowns this week. He and I are done.
A few days after my A League fantasy draft, I discovered I had made a major mistake by not taking DeMarco Murray. (Mainly because it's a keeper league). I was reading some column about the Cowboys offense and how much they liked the Oklahoma rookie, so I checked him out on YouTube. I honestly thought I was watching highlights of Adrian Peterson. The combo of strength and speed was unbelievable. I couldn't stop thinking "How did this guy not get drafted until the 3rd round?!" Apparently it had something to do with a toe injury in 2007 or something. What?
When he got dropped by the lucky bastard who drafted him, I was too lazy to pick him up. Felix Jones was getting all the carries. I knew Murray would be great when he got his chance, but I thought his chance was far away. I planned to stash Murray on my bench near the end of the year. Then, Felix got hurt, I missed the waiver frenzy, and Murray ran for 253 yards. I might have been the only person alive who wasn't all that surprised.
I did manage to pick up Murray in 9 of the other leagues. Not surprisingly, I went 10-2 this week in fantasy, losing the A League for the sixth straight week, but winning almost everywhere else. My only other loss was 226-229 to a bastard with Arian Foster.
Suddenly, Felix Jones is going to be looking for a job. Murray will be the starter in Dallas for many years. And I am probably going to trade my entire A League team for him.
Packers (6-0) @ Vikings (1-5)
Line: GB by 8
Packers are the anti-Rams. They’ve killed everyone they played, except New Orleans. They are blowing everybody out by halftime. Rodgers is playing like the hands-down MVP, and the defense gets better each week. Every week their line is too low. I’m pretty sure they’re 6-0 ATS this year.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is going with rookie Christian Ponder at quarterback, benching Chunky Soup McNabb. Donovan had gone six straight games without 230 passing yards. He’s got only 4 TDs in 6 games. His completion percentage is 60.3%. It’s safe to say his career is done.
Ponder will do a lot of handing-off to AP, and the Packers will put 9 in the box. On 3rd downs when Ponder has to pass, he’s really going to struggle. I’d guess his final stat line is something like 8/20, 75 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. Not going to be a memorable first game. I’m surprised Minny didn’t wait another week instead of throwing their rookie QB at the Packers and watching him get devoured. Maybe it’ll be a good learning experience. Build character or something. Packers 31-14.
No freaking idea how Minnesota manged to keep this game within 8, but since I went 9-2-1 this week I'm not going to complain. Rodgers has played 7 games this year, and his lowest QB Rating yet is 111.4. Average for the year is 125.7, with 20 TDs and 3 picks. And a 7-0 record. Somewhere, Brett Favre is getting drunk and watching highlights of the '96 Packers, muttering under his breath as he falls asleep ... "he's like a kid out there ... he's a gunslinger ...real comfortable jeans ..."
Colts (0-6) @ Saints (4-2)
Line: NO by 14
As I’ve said before, the Saints don’t like to cover big spreads. Sean Payton is 3-10 ATS against double-digit spreads. It’s not that they lose against bad teams, they just don’t blow people out very often. Probably because they always lack an inside running game. Well, this game will be an exception. Saints are clicking, they are pissed off, and they are at home against a tremendously bad team that isn’t trying. I’ll take New Orleans 42-7. Be very afraid if you're playing against Brees this week.
Honest question: are the Colts really that bad, or are they losing on purpose? I seriously have no idea. Maybe both? They're going to be in serious contention for Luck, which is going to make the Internet explode.
First coach fired is going to be Tony Sparano, but it should be Jim Caldwell. What a pathetic display. Plenty of good teams have lost their quarterback and still competed. Caldwell gave up on the season before week 1, and his players did too. If I were Bill Polian I would fire that guy so quick he would just stare at me with a dumb blank expression on his face. Wait ...
Ravens (4-1) @ Jaguars (1-5)
Line: BAL by 7
It’s like Monday Night Football isn’t even trying to create good matchups. What the crap is this?
All Jacksonville can do offensively is run the ball, and you can’t run against Baltimore. This year, you can’t really pass on them either. Baltimore could punt on 1st down every possession and still cover this spread. But they won’t. Instead Flacco will shred the porous and injured Jags secondary and prove why the Ravens are currently the best team in the AFC. Baltimore 28-0.
Bonus prediction: Rangers over Cardinals in 7. And Pujols is going to get $260 million over the next 8 years. Not sure yet if it'll be the Cubs or Cardinals, but I'm leaning towards Cubs.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Week 6 Picks
49ers (4-1) @ Lions (5-0)
Predicted Line: DET by 5.5
Actual Line: DET by 4
Right now, Schwartz and Harbaugh are the top two candidates for Coach of the Year. Given Alex Smith's 104.1 QB rating (3rd in the league behind Brady and Rodgers), you have to give Harbaugh the nod. How the heck has he turned Alex Smith into an offensive machine?
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the Niners offensive line. They've been awesome. Now they get the Lions' elite, deep, and generally superior defensive line, so it should be a fantastic matchup in the trenches. Gore has 252 rushing yards in his last 2 games, a stunning 7.5 YPC, and that is mostly impressive when you consider that he doesn't have a huge outlier run to inflate the stats. His biggest gain is 12 yards.
Fortunately Detroit is turning into a run-stuffing defensive unit. Stephen Tulloch is the best linebacker we've had since Chris Spielman, and Levy makes a great sidekick. The D line doesn't get pushed around anymore, and the safeties can fly up into holes and slam into people. Stopping Frank Gore won't be easy, but I do think Detroit has the personnel to slow him down and hold him to less than 100 yards.
If we do that, we can force Alex Smith into passing situations, and hopefully create some turnovers. I was shocked and dismayed that Detroit wasn't able to force a single turnover against Jay Cutler. I doubt that happens again.
Vernon Davis is clearly the 49ers best receiving threat, while Josh Morgan has really surpassed Crabtree as the #2. (EDIT* Morgan is on IR with a broken ankle. This is pretty important). Delanie Walker is the new #2 receiver, with Braylon sidelined until at least week 8. These guys are deep and have tons of talent at the skill positions. Last year they looked like a playoff team but sucked because of poor quarterback play. This year everybody said "Don't be fooled, Alex Smith sucks!" but we didn't realize that Harbaugh was the football version of Yoda.
As great as the Lions defense has been this year, I don't see us clamping down on Gore and Davis enough to prevent 24 or 27 points from being scored. Which means this should be a really close game.
Offensively, I'm hoping Scott Linehan will scrap the running game from the get-go and coming out throwing. You can't run on San Francisco (they rank 3rd in YPC and they have Patrick Willis, the best run-stopping linebacker in a decade), so why force Stafford into 3rd and 9 situations? I'd rather see 2 incomplete bombs and take 3rd and 10.
Currently, Calvin is averaging 5.8 catches per game, and that number needs to start increasing. We've been treating him too much like a secret weapon for the last few years, and need to start force-feeding him the ball. As a red-zone guy, he's the best receiver in the league. Probably the best since Moss. But as a middle-of-the-field possession guy, he's underused. Obviously that's because of double and triple coverage. But still, I'd like to see his receptions increase, even if it means less passes thrown to Will Heller or less runs for Keiland Williams. I know, shocking.
The toughest part of this game is probably the mental factor. At 5-0, Detroit could easily relax and say "Nobody expected us to be 5-0, and being 5-1 would still be awesome." Playing on a short week is an added challenge. Meanwhile San Fran is riding a huge wave of momentum, coming off a 45 point win and feeling like they've already won the NFC West. It's gonna be tough to stay focused, but the home crowd should help. That, and this team has a lot of on-field leaders, especially on defense, who won't let the rest of the guys slack.
I see this being a back-and-forth chess match where both teams take turns leading. Neither will run away with the game, but neither will collapse. In the end, I like Detroit, narrowly, 24-23.
Colts (0-5) @ Bengals (3-2)
Predicted Line: CIN by 7
Actual Line: CIN by 7
I do believe the Colts are subconsciously tanking, but even if that's the case, I don't trust Andy Dalton and Cedric Benson to cover a 7-point spread. Bengals 24-20.
Bills (4-1) @ Giants (3-2)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: NYG by 3
I don't get it. The Bills just beat down Philly, and the Giants just lost at home to Seattle. Justin Tuck and Chris Snee (the Giants two best players if I'm not mistaken) are out. If Ryan Fitzpatrick was the one with the famous brother, wouldn't Buffalo be favored by 7? Seriously, what does Buffalo need to do to get some respect? I'm all over the Bills here, straight up, 27-23.
Rams (0-4) @ Packers (5-0)
Predicted Line: A Billion
Actual Line: 14.5
Really? Only 15? Guess I'll take the Pack. Let's say 35-6 at halftime, 45-20 final.
Jaguars (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 10
Actual Line: PIT by 12
Last week, everyone hated on the Steelers. Now, they're 12 point favorites. Everything can change in a week. Last week, this line woulda been 6 or less.
With all the injuries on defense and the crappiness of the offensive line, I still don't like Pittsburgh big. But a rookie QB in Heinz Field ... geez I don't know. Pittsburgh definitely wins again, but 12 is just a few points higher than I want to go. Let's say 23-13, Jags cover.
Eagles (1-4) @ Redskins (3-1)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: PHI by 1.5
On a talent scale from 1 to 100, Philly wins 95 to 65. But on the field, who the heck knows. I've picked in favor of Philly and been wrong for several weeks in a row. I'm doing it again. Sue me. 28-20.
Texans (3-2) @ Ravens (3-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7 (overreaction to Mario Williams injury)
Actual Line: BAL by 7.5 (Wow)
Actually, I like the Ravens too, along with 78% of the public. When a team is without their two best players like Houston is, it's got to be tempting to quit, especially on the road. Ray Rice will run all over them. I hate everything about Jacoby Jones. Ravens 27-17.
Browns (2-2) @ Raiders (3-2)
Predicted Line: OAK by 6.5
Actual Line: OAK by 6.5
Don't take crappy teams on the road. Don't take crappy quarterbacks to cover big spreads. I'm torn. I'm guessing the line is a bit too high; Oakland wins by 3.
Cowboys (2-2) @ Patriots (4-1)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 7
With the Cowboys on a bye last week, it was a rare chance for some quarterbacks other than Tony Romo to get discussed by the national media. Vick was oddly excused for his 4 INT game, and instead Tebow and Roethlisberger dominated headlines. For some reason, Rodgers and Brady are having historic seasons and nobody's talking about them (both are on pace for 44 TDs and 5,500+ yards).
These teams are similar in a lot of ways, but also very different. Both have great offenses capable of scoring quickly, and both have bad secondaries. Consequently, it could be high-scoring. The Cowboys have a good pass rush, while the Pats don't. But the Pats have a great O-line, which the Cowboys don't. In other words, don't count on many sacks.
With Miles Austin and Dez Bryant playing at less than 100%, it'll be tough for Dallas to keep the score within 7. Brady is like 99-1 ATS at home so I guess I'll take New England, 37-26.
*Ugghh ... I just realized now we have Rex Ryan's ugly long-haired brother doing his Rex impression, talking trash about the Patriots. Let me guess... Brady would only be the third best QB on the Cowboys right?
Saints (4-1) @ Bucs (3-2)
Panthers (1-4) @ Falcons (2-3)
Two huge matchups in the NFC South. The Saints and Falcons are both 4-point favorites. I like them both to win, but I think both games are decided by a field goal or less.
Vikings (1-4) @ Bears (2-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 3
Predicted Line: DET by 5.5
Actual Line: DET by 4
Right now, Schwartz and Harbaugh are the top two candidates for Coach of the Year. Given Alex Smith's 104.1 QB rating (3rd in the league behind Brady and Rodgers), you have to give Harbaugh the nod. How the heck has he turned Alex Smith into an offensive machine?
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the Niners offensive line. They've been awesome. Now they get the Lions' elite, deep, and generally superior defensive line, so it should be a fantastic matchup in the trenches. Gore has 252 rushing yards in his last 2 games, a stunning 7.5 YPC, and that is mostly impressive when you consider that he doesn't have a huge outlier run to inflate the stats. His biggest gain is 12 yards.
Fortunately Detroit is turning into a run-stuffing defensive unit. Stephen Tulloch is the best linebacker we've had since Chris Spielman, and Levy makes a great sidekick. The D line doesn't get pushed around anymore, and the safeties can fly up into holes and slam into people. Stopping Frank Gore won't be easy, but I do think Detroit has the personnel to slow him down and hold him to less than 100 yards.
If we do that, we can force Alex Smith into passing situations, and hopefully create some turnovers. I was shocked and dismayed that Detroit wasn't able to force a single turnover against Jay Cutler. I doubt that happens again.
Vernon Davis is clearly the 49ers best receiving threat, while Josh Morgan has really surpassed Crabtree as the #2. (EDIT* Morgan is on IR with a broken ankle. This is pretty important). Delanie Walker is the new #2 receiver, with Braylon sidelined until at least week 8. These guys are deep and have tons of talent at the skill positions. Last year they looked like a playoff team but sucked because of poor quarterback play. This year everybody said "Don't be fooled, Alex Smith sucks!" but we didn't realize that Harbaugh was the football version of Yoda.
As great as the Lions defense has been this year, I don't see us clamping down on Gore and Davis enough to prevent 24 or 27 points from being scored. Which means this should be a really close game.
Offensively, I'm hoping Scott Linehan will scrap the running game from the get-go and coming out throwing. You can't run on San Francisco (they rank 3rd in YPC and they have Patrick Willis, the best run-stopping linebacker in a decade), so why force Stafford into 3rd and 9 situations? I'd rather see 2 incomplete bombs and take 3rd and 10.
Currently, Calvin is averaging 5.8 catches per game, and that number needs to start increasing. We've been treating him too much like a secret weapon for the last few years, and need to start force-feeding him the ball. As a red-zone guy, he's the best receiver in the league. Probably the best since Moss. But as a middle-of-the-field possession guy, he's underused. Obviously that's because of double and triple coverage. But still, I'd like to see his receptions increase, even if it means less passes thrown to Will Heller or less runs for Keiland Williams. I know, shocking.
The toughest part of this game is probably the mental factor. At 5-0, Detroit could easily relax and say "Nobody expected us to be 5-0, and being 5-1 would still be awesome." Playing on a short week is an added challenge. Meanwhile San Fran is riding a huge wave of momentum, coming off a 45 point win and feeling like they've already won the NFC West. It's gonna be tough to stay focused, but the home crowd should help. That, and this team has a lot of on-field leaders, especially on defense, who won't let the rest of the guys slack.
I see this being a back-and-forth chess match where both teams take turns leading. Neither will run away with the game, but neither will collapse. In the end, I like Detroit, narrowly, 24-23.
Colts (0-5) @ Bengals (3-2)
Predicted Line: CIN by 7
Actual Line: CIN by 7
I do believe the Colts are subconsciously tanking, but even if that's the case, I don't trust Andy Dalton and Cedric Benson to cover a 7-point spread. Bengals 24-20.
Bills (4-1) @ Giants (3-2)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: NYG by 3
I don't get it. The Bills just beat down Philly, and the Giants just lost at home to Seattle. Justin Tuck and Chris Snee (the Giants two best players if I'm not mistaken) are out. If Ryan Fitzpatrick was the one with the famous brother, wouldn't Buffalo be favored by 7? Seriously, what does Buffalo need to do to get some respect? I'm all over the Bills here, straight up, 27-23.
Rams (0-4) @ Packers (5-0)
Predicted Line: A Billion
Actual Line: 14.5
Really? Only 15? Guess I'll take the Pack. Let's say 35-6 at halftime, 45-20 final.
Jaguars (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 10
Actual Line: PIT by 12
Last week, everyone hated on the Steelers. Now, they're 12 point favorites. Everything can change in a week. Last week, this line woulda been 6 or less.
With all the injuries on defense and the crappiness of the offensive line, I still don't like Pittsburgh big. But a rookie QB in Heinz Field ... geez I don't know. Pittsburgh definitely wins again, but 12 is just a few points higher than I want to go. Let's say 23-13, Jags cover.
Eagles (1-4) @ Redskins (3-1)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: PHI by 1.5
On a talent scale from 1 to 100, Philly wins 95 to 65. But on the field, who the heck knows. I've picked in favor of Philly and been wrong for several weeks in a row. I'm doing it again. Sue me. 28-20.
Texans (3-2) @ Ravens (3-1)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7 (overreaction to Mario Williams injury)
Actual Line: BAL by 7.5 (Wow)
Actually, I like the Ravens too, along with 78% of the public. When a team is without their two best players like Houston is, it's got to be tempting to quit, especially on the road. Ray Rice will run all over them. I hate everything about Jacoby Jones. Ravens 27-17.
Browns (2-2) @ Raiders (3-2)
Predicted Line: OAK by 6.5
Actual Line: OAK by 6.5
Don't take crappy teams on the road. Don't take crappy quarterbacks to cover big spreads. I'm torn. I'm guessing the line is a bit too high; Oakland wins by 3.
Cowboys (2-2) @ Patriots (4-1)
Predicted Line: NE by 8.5
Actual Line: NE by 7
With the Cowboys on a bye last week, it was a rare chance for some quarterbacks other than Tony Romo to get discussed by the national media. Vick was oddly excused for his 4 INT game, and instead Tebow and Roethlisberger dominated headlines. For some reason, Rodgers and Brady are having historic seasons and nobody's talking about them (both are on pace for 44 TDs and 5,500+ yards).
These teams are similar in a lot of ways, but also very different. Both have great offenses capable of scoring quickly, and both have bad secondaries. Consequently, it could be high-scoring. The Cowboys have a good pass rush, while the Pats don't. But the Pats have a great O-line, which the Cowboys don't. In other words, don't count on many sacks.
With Miles Austin and Dez Bryant playing at less than 100%, it'll be tough for Dallas to keep the score within 7. Brady is like 99-1 ATS at home so I guess I'll take New England, 37-26.
*Ugghh ... I just realized now we have Rex Ryan's ugly long-haired brother doing his Rex impression, talking trash about the Patriots. Let me guess... Brady would only be the third best QB on the Cowboys right?
Saints (4-1) @ Bucs (3-2)
Panthers (1-4) @ Falcons (2-3)
Two huge matchups in the NFC South. The Saints and Falcons are both 4-point favorites. I like them both to win, but I think both games are decided by a field goal or less.
Vikings (1-4) @ Bears (2-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 3
After watching the sad excuse for an offense run by Mike Martz and Jay Cutler, I don't see Chicago scoring more than 14 or 17 points against Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and the Vikings D. Peterson should be able to match that by himself while McNabb continues to chuck passes to his receivers ankles. With all due respect to the great Tom Kowalski (RIP) and anyone who proclaimed the dominance of the NFC North prior to this season, this is probably the worst game of week 6. I like Minnesota only because somebody's gotta win. Let's say 20-16.
Dolphins (0-4) @ Jets (2-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 13.5 (Matt Moore on the road, come on)
Actual Line: NYJ by 7
Typically, Miami is a bad team that doesn't quite get blown out. In playing 3 great AFC teams, they've lost by 14, 10 and 10. But that was with Chad Henne. Now they have Matt Moore under center, and we all saw what he was able to do last year as Carolina's starter (55.6 QB rating).
The Dolphins have an excellent defense, however, and should be able to shut down the Jets really terrible offense. Sanchez is playing the worst football of his young career, and Shonn Greene looks slow and terrible. But, Nick Mangold is back in action, finally healthy, and that means big things. There are only 3 offensive lineman in the NFL who are totally essential to their team's offense: Mangold, Jake Long, and Joe Thomas. The Jets 3 game losing streak has everything to do with Mangold's injury.
With Miami coming off a bye and the Jets playing like crap, a lot of people are leaning towards the Dolphins. Hence the line being 7 when it should be 10+. But terrible quarterbacks on the road against great defenses ... that's too easy. Especially when Revis eliminates Brandon Marshall, Miami's only decent receiver. Low-scoring but Jets still cover. 16-3.
That's all I got. Hoping for a good week of picks, hoping my stupid fantasy team doesn't fall to 1-5, and mostly hoping for a 6-0 start for the undefeated Lions!
And hoping the Tigers can come back from the 1-3 hole. I'm not at all giving up; we've got Verlander today, then Fister and Scherzer who both pitched great against Texas (13 combined innings, 5 earned runs). It's obviously going to be tough to come back, especially if Nelson Cruz continues to hit 11th inning homers, but Detroit can do it.
Go lions.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Lions Dominate
A few quick thoughts:
-The Lions D-line is like a hockey team. They rotate every 2 or 3 plays. Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young were just as good as Avril and KVB, if not better. It was incredible to watch DEs with fresh legs on just about every play. Nick Fairley is faster than I thought. Corey Williams continues to play great. And Suh is the catalyst, the leader, and the superstar. That D-line seriously is the best in the NFL, because it legitimately goes 8 guys deep and they all play. Never seen anything like that before.
-Granted, the Bears offensive line is AWFUL, and Jay Cutler might be the worst QB in the league. He could have 5 All Pro linemen and he'd still find a way to get sacked.
-Hey Jahvid Best, good to see you again. It appears your speed is not completely gone after all. What a wonderful surprise. Hope to see you next week.
-The better Calvin plays, the more Chris Carter looks like an idiot. It's not even close anymore. The only question is whether Calvin will break the single-season record for TDs. You know he's got a 3 score game coming up soon.
-Chris Houston is the most underappreciated player on Detroit's 5-0 team. He is playing some shutdown defense in single-coverage. He does not look like the same guy from 2010.
-The commentators from Monday Night are worse than bad. Jon Gruden is abysmal. I've always known he was verbally challenged, but sitting through an entire game, listening to his mundane prattle after every single play, was sheer pain. Tirico and Jaworski were lousy too, but Gruden repeatedly stole the show, providing bogus analysis on nearly every play, calling guys by the wrong name, saying Eric Wright was Detroit's best coverage guy, saying that Titus Young has been a go-to guy on third down, saying that Jahvid Best had a great season last year. He clearly makes things up as he goes. Which is fine. Lots of crappy commentators have done that and they can get away with it because they are former players or coaches. But it's not just what he says, it's how he says it. Like crappy poetry. Like monotonous reading from a 3rd-grade level book. Like an ex-football coach trying to turn obvious observations into some kind of profound wisdom.
Example:
"Now here's a guy, Brandon Pettigrew, who is not a short guy. He stands 6 foot 8 or something in that range. That's a guy who, with his size, has plenty of value in the National Football League. I'll tell ya, Matt Stafford likes havin a guy like that on his team. Brandon Pettigrew. Tight end for the Detroit Lions."
-Detroit is home for the next two games, San Fran and Atlanta. The Niners are 4-1 and would be 5-0 if not for the famous Punctured Lung Comeback. They are playing inspired and Alex Smith has 7 TDs and only 1 INT. His transformation into a mistake-free game-manager under Jim Harbaugh has been surprising to say the least. Let's hope Detroit's defensive line can rupture that rhythm.
-I went 7-5-1 (7-6 straight up) on the picks, to improve just a little bit to 35-38-4 on the season, and a still solid 50-27 straight up.
-Lost the Fantasy A League, falling to 1-4. My fourth straight loss, all by 6 points or less, all incured on Monday nights. I will go chew on steel wool to console myself. Won the B league easily and lost the Cornerstone league because Bowe and BenJarvus combined for 51 against me. Went 7-2 in the other leagues. The Morgan Masterpiece is now 5-0 after a thrilling 167-166 victory over "in da club."
In other news ...
-Tigers lost in the 11th on a stupid grand slam. Down 0-2 in the series, Fister pitching tonight, the next 3 are at home. I'm expecting to win 2 of 3. We have to win tonight to ensure at least one more game for JV. If Fister wins tonight and Justin wins game 5 (which he will), that means we just need a heck of a game from Porcello tomorrow and we might head back to Texas up 3-2. I'm not giving up hope yet.
-NBA is locked out for at least 2 weeks. That's a nice way of saying there won't be a season at all. What a smame. With all the young talented 'good-guy' superstars in the league ... Durant, Rose, Griffin, Howard, Paul, Wall ... this is the worst thing that could have happened to the NBA. Not to mention the Kobe/Dirk/Duncan/Nash/Garnett crowd who are losing one of the last seasons of their careers. The lockout is a positive thing from only two standpoints:
-People who cheer for teams with no chance in the near future, like the Pistons.
-People who want to see LeBron go his entire career with no titles.
As a member of both groups, I'm strangely comfortable with the lockout. I'll miss fantasy basketball more than real basketball. Man, the Pistons must really suck for me to say that.
-Somebody threw a hot dog at Tiger Woods last week.
-Steve Jobs died and millions of people found out on Apple products.
-A month from today is 11/11/11. I'm rooting for that to be my daughter's day of birth.
Go Lions.
-The Lions D-line is like a hockey team. They rotate every 2 or 3 plays. Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young were just as good as Avril and KVB, if not better. It was incredible to watch DEs with fresh legs on just about every play. Nick Fairley is faster than I thought. Corey Williams continues to play great. And Suh is the catalyst, the leader, and the superstar. That D-line seriously is the best in the NFL, because it legitimately goes 8 guys deep and they all play. Never seen anything like that before.
-Granted, the Bears offensive line is AWFUL, and Jay Cutler might be the worst QB in the league. He could have 5 All Pro linemen and he'd still find a way to get sacked.
-Hey Jahvid Best, good to see you again. It appears your speed is not completely gone after all. What a wonderful surprise. Hope to see you next week.
-The better Calvin plays, the more Chris Carter looks like an idiot. It's not even close anymore. The only question is whether Calvin will break the single-season record for TDs. You know he's got a 3 score game coming up soon.
-Chris Houston is the most underappreciated player on Detroit's 5-0 team. He is playing some shutdown defense in single-coverage. He does not look like the same guy from 2010.
-The commentators from Monday Night are worse than bad. Jon Gruden is abysmal. I've always known he was verbally challenged, but sitting through an entire game, listening to his mundane prattle after every single play, was sheer pain. Tirico and Jaworski were lousy too, but Gruden repeatedly stole the show, providing bogus analysis on nearly every play, calling guys by the wrong name, saying Eric Wright was Detroit's best coverage guy, saying that Titus Young has been a go-to guy on third down, saying that Jahvid Best had a great season last year. He clearly makes things up as he goes. Which is fine. Lots of crappy commentators have done that and they can get away with it because they are former players or coaches. But it's not just what he says, it's how he says it. Like crappy poetry. Like monotonous reading from a 3rd-grade level book. Like an ex-football coach trying to turn obvious observations into some kind of profound wisdom.
Example:
"Now here's a guy, Brandon Pettigrew, who is not a short guy. He stands 6 foot 8 or something in that range. That's a guy who, with his size, has plenty of value in the National Football League. I'll tell ya, Matt Stafford likes havin a guy like that on his team. Brandon Pettigrew. Tight end for the Detroit Lions."
-Detroit is home for the next two games, San Fran and Atlanta. The Niners are 4-1 and would be 5-0 if not for the famous Punctured Lung Comeback. They are playing inspired and Alex Smith has 7 TDs and only 1 INT. His transformation into a mistake-free game-manager under Jim Harbaugh has been surprising to say the least. Let's hope Detroit's defensive line can rupture that rhythm.
-I went 7-5-1 (7-6 straight up) on the picks, to improve just a little bit to 35-38-4 on the season, and a still solid 50-27 straight up.
-Lost the Fantasy A League, falling to 1-4. My fourth straight loss, all by 6 points or less, all incured on Monday nights. I will go chew on steel wool to console myself. Won the B league easily and lost the Cornerstone league because Bowe and BenJarvus combined for 51 against me. Went 7-2 in the other leagues. The Morgan Masterpiece is now 5-0 after a thrilling 167-166 victory over "in da club."
In other news ...
-Tigers lost in the 11th on a stupid grand slam. Down 0-2 in the series, Fister pitching tonight, the next 3 are at home. I'm expecting to win 2 of 3. We have to win tonight to ensure at least one more game for JV. If Fister wins tonight and Justin wins game 5 (which he will), that means we just need a heck of a game from Porcello tomorrow and we might head back to Texas up 3-2. I'm not giving up hope yet.
-NBA is locked out for at least 2 weeks. That's a nice way of saying there won't be a season at all. What a smame. With all the young talented 'good-guy' superstars in the league ... Durant, Rose, Griffin, Howard, Paul, Wall ... this is the worst thing that could have happened to the NBA. Not to mention the Kobe/Dirk/Duncan/Nash/Garnett crowd who are losing one of the last seasons of their careers. The lockout is a positive thing from only two standpoints:
-People who cheer for teams with no chance in the near future, like the Pistons.
-People who want to see LeBron go his entire career with no titles.
As a member of both groups, I'm strangely comfortable with the lockout. I'll miss fantasy basketball more than real basketball. Man, the Pistons must really suck for me to say that.
-Somebody threw a hot dog at Tiger Woods last week.
-Steve Jobs died and millions of people found out on Apple products.
-A month from today is 11/11/11. I'm rooting for that to be my daughter's day of birth.
Go Lions.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Week 5 Picks
Gonna just zip through these and then finish up with the Lions MNF pick.
Chiefs (1-3) @ Colts (0-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 3
Actual Line: IND by 2
The Battle for Andrew Luck takes a serious turn in Indy's favor as they fall to 0-5. KC wins 24-16.
Yup. Indy blows a 24-7 lead at home; Luck appears destined for either Indy or Miami.
Jackie Battle has 19 carries for KC, while McCluster has 4. Obvious fantasy pick-up.
Cardinals (1-3) @ Vikings (0-4)
Predicted Line: MIN by 5.5
Actual Line: MIN by 2.5
Vikings are long overdue for their first win. Don't pick the NFC West on the road. And the line is too low. Three good reasons to take Minny. 31-17.
34-10, 31-17. Same thing. McNabb was heinous once again, and will probably start his final NFL game by the end of the month.
Eagles (1-3) @ Bills (3-1)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: PHI by 2.5
This might actually be the most intriguing game of the week. Philly has about 40 times more talent than the Bills, but Buffalo plays as a team and is smart. Philly wins by a field goal, 23-20.
4 interceptions for Vick, terrible tackling by Philly ... Buffalo keeps playing mistake-free. At 1-4, it's going to be very hard for Philly to make the playoffs. At 4-1, it's going to be tough for Buffalo to MISS the playoffs. But I still think both unlikely scenarios will happen.
Raiders (2-2) @ Texans (3-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6
Actual Line: HOU by 5.5
The Andre Johnson injury probably hurts Houston's offense more than we realize. Oakland will cram the line and see if Jacoby Jones can beat them deep. Meanwhile, McFadden is looking like one of the best RBs in the league. I like Oakland to cover, but Houston wins 24-23.
So, I picked up Jacoby Jones and played him in the A League, thinking someone would rack up yardage for Houston against a bad secondary. I was right. With Andre Johnson out, Matt Schaub still went for over 400 yards in the losing effort. Guess how many yards Jacoby Jones, the #1 receiver, had? How about NINE. Nine freaking yards. Stupid jackass.
If I knew Al Davis was going to die on Friday, and if I knew that Mario Williams was going to miss half the game with an injury that might keep him out for the next several weeks, I would have taken Oakland straight-up.
Quick note on the AFC South. They went 0-4 this week, with 3 of the teams blowing a 7-point lead at home, and the other team being blown out. The three best players in the division (Peyton, Andre, Mario) are injured. We could be looking at another 7-9 team making the playoffs.
Saints (3-1) @ Panthers (1-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 4.5
Actual Line: NO by 6.5
I'm jumping on the Cam Newton Garbage Points bandwagon and picking the Panthers ATS until futher notice. Saints win 37-31.
Easy call.
Don't look now, but the NFC South is clearly the best division in football. Carolina is competing with everybody; they're 1-4 but all 5 games have been close. No other division is a close second.
By the way, what are Cam Newton's odds for Offensive ROY right now? At the beginning of the season he was an 11:1 favorite, meaning if you put down $100 bucks you would collect $1,100 if he won. Now ... heck, I would put down $100 bucks if the payout was fifty cents.
Chiefs (1-3) @ Colts (0-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 3
Actual Line: IND by 2
The Battle for Andrew Luck takes a serious turn in Indy's favor as they fall to 0-5. KC wins 24-16.
Yup. Indy blows a 24-7 lead at home; Luck appears destined for either Indy or Miami.
Jackie Battle has 19 carries for KC, while McCluster has 4. Obvious fantasy pick-up.
Cardinals (1-3) @ Vikings (0-4)
Predicted Line: MIN by 5.5
Actual Line: MIN by 2.5
Vikings are long overdue for their first win. Don't pick the NFC West on the road. And the line is too low. Three good reasons to take Minny. 31-17.
34-10, 31-17. Same thing. McNabb was heinous once again, and will probably start his final NFL game by the end of the month.
Eagles (1-3) @ Bills (3-1)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: PHI by 2.5
This might actually be the most intriguing game of the week. Philly has about 40 times more talent than the Bills, but Buffalo plays as a team and is smart. Philly wins by a field goal, 23-20.
4 interceptions for Vick, terrible tackling by Philly ... Buffalo keeps playing mistake-free. At 1-4, it's going to be very hard for Philly to make the playoffs. At 4-1, it's going to be tough for Buffalo to MISS the playoffs. But I still think both unlikely scenarios will happen.
Raiders (2-2) @ Texans (3-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6
Actual Line: HOU by 5.5
The Andre Johnson injury probably hurts Houston's offense more than we realize. Oakland will cram the line and see if Jacoby Jones can beat them deep. Meanwhile, McFadden is looking like one of the best RBs in the league. I like Oakland to cover, but Houston wins 24-23.
So, I picked up Jacoby Jones and played him in the A League, thinking someone would rack up yardage for Houston against a bad secondary. I was right. With Andre Johnson out, Matt Schaub still went for over 400 yards in the losing effort. Guess how many yards Jacoby Jones, the #1 receiver, had? How about NINE. Nine freaking yards. Stupid jackass.
If I knew Al Davis was going to die on Friday, and if I knew that Mario Williams was going to miss half the game with an injury that might keep him out for the next several weeks, I would have taken Oakland straight-up.
Quick note on the AFC South. They went 0-4 this week, with 3 of the teams blowing a 7-point lead at home, and the other team being blown out. The three best players in the division (Peyton, Andre, Mario) are injured. We could be looking at another 7-9 team making the playoffs.
Saints (3-1) @ Panthers (1-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 4.5
Actual Line: NO by 6.5
I'm jumping on the Cam Newton Garbage Points bandwagon and picking the Panthers ATS until futher notice. Saints win 37-31.
Easy call.
Don't look now, but the NFC South is clearly the best division in football. Carolina is competing with everybody; they're 1-4 but all 5 games have been close. No other division is a close second.
By the way, what are Cam Newton's odds for Offensive ROY right now? At the beginning of the season he was an 11:1 favorite, meaning if you put down $100 bucks you would collect $1,100 if he won. Now ... heck, I would put down $100 bucks if the payout was fifty cents.
Bengals (2-2) @ Jags (1-3)
Predicted Line: JAC by 1
Actual Line: JAC by 2.5
The classic Rookie Quarterbacks on Wretched Teams Game. Can't wait for that. Guess I'll take the points. Jags win 17-16.
So apparently Dalton is a little bit better than Gabbert. Glad we got that cleared up.
Titans (3-1) @ Steelers (2-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3.5
I like the Titans, Upset of the week. Lots of reasons, most of which you've probably already heard. (Injuries to Roethlisberger, Mendenhall, Hampton and Harrison are only part of the reason). Titans make a "We're For Real' statement, 27-7.
Well, not only did Big Ben decide to play, but he decided to throw 5 TDs and expose the Titans for what they are ... a team missing its 2 best defenders from last year when they were already the 26th best defense. That's funny, I seem to remember saying that during the summer, and also saying not to bail on the Steelers. Glad I took my own advice.
Speaking of why I hate the Steelers ... In the A League (where I'm clearly desperate ... 5 byes plus a sucky team), I picked up WR Antonio Brown and RB Isaac Redman, both starters for this game. I guess I had a decent feeling about the Steelers offense. And after 431 yards of team offense and 5 offensive TDs, my two guys combined for a whopping ... 7 fantasy points. Their backups went for 28 fantasy points. Thanks Pittsburgh. Go eat a hoagie you freaking morons.
Seahawks (1-3) @ Giants (3-1)
Predicted Line: NYG by 10
Actual Line: NYG by 9.5
The worst team in the NFL is Seattle-On-The-Road. This line can't be high enough. I like the Giants 34-13. It's my Survivor pick (used SD, NE, GB and PIT so far) but I don't trust Eli enough to make this the Lock of the Week.
I don't know what to say about this game. Eli had 4 turnovers, took 3 sacks, and the Giants defense was even worse. They couldn't stop Tavaris Jackson. When he got hurt, they couldn't stop Charlie Whitehurst. Pathetic.
In fairness, I wouldn't have made this my Survivor pick if I knew Justin Tuck was out. I almost changed it to Sunday morning but I was too lazy. Without Tuck, the Giants D is one of the worst units in the league. Fortunately he's not out long.
From a 'Lions Fan Hoping for a Wildcard' perspective, this game was awesome. From a 'Guy Making Picks and Looking Really Stupid,' it was terrible.
Bucs (3-1) @ 49ers (3-1)
Predicted Line: TB by 3
Actual Line: SF by 2.5
The Bucs are one of 4 teams to start 0-1 and then win 3 straight. The others are New Orleans, Tennessee, and the Giants. Of these, New Orleans is the most impressive by far. They're essentially undefeated; their only loss is to the best team in football, and that game was decided in the final seconds.
The converse teams are Philly, Jacksonville and Arizona, who started 1-0 and have fallen in 3 straight games. The Jags and Cards make sense, but not Philly. Their season is an utter mystery.
This is a goofy line. People tend to think San Fran is much better than they really are. I like Tampa and I like them comfortably. Lock of the Week since their getting 2 points.
So, I missed the Upset, Survivor, and Lock of the week. Awesome. Thanks San Fran for not only winning but matching the same incredible score by which Detroit beat KC earlier this year. 48-3. How did this happen?
Well, for one thing, Tampa had 9 penalties, including 2 unsportsmanlikes and 1 big pass interference. They also had 3 turnovers and a failed 4th and 2. In terms of total yards, this game could have been close. Tampa probably has more talent. They just didn't play competitively. Mike Williams was targeted 9 times but ended up with only 4 catches for an ugly 28 yards and a fumble.
Patrick Willis might have won this game singlehandedly for the Niners, with 12 tackles, a fumble recovery, and holding the Bucs to 86 rushing yards on 23 carries, a direct reason why they punted 6 times. Once San Fran held a decent lead, they gave the ball to Frank Gore continually and he ran over the Bucs, who lost Gerald McCoy in the 1st quarter. He might be out a while.
With the Rams at 0-4 and San Fran now 4-1, the NFC West is almost a done-deal. San Francisco travels to Detroit next week.
Jets (2-2) @ Patriots (3-1)
Predicted Line: NE by 7.5
Actual Line: NE by 9
Rex Ryan recently guaranteed that the Jets will win this game. I didn't read that anywhere, I'm just assuming. Hasn't he guaranteed a win in every Pats game since he was hired? This is basically his Super Bowl twice a year.
The thing is, New York knocked the Pats out of the playoffs and made Brady look bad. There's nothing more certain than the Tom Brady Revenge Factor. Plus, the Jets are banged up, they can't generate a pass rush, and Sanchez is playing the worst football of his career. I bet Revis shuts down Welker (3 catches, 35 yards) and Brady manages to accumulate 380 yards to other guys. Big game for Ochocinco? Pats by 14.
Even though the Pats outplayed the crap out of the Jets (446 yards to 255 yards), they won by exactly 9 points, making this a push. Boo. Also Tom Brady threw only 1 TD, when he could have easily had 4. Stinking BenJarvusMcEllisGreenTreeFishBarn. But the good news is ... Rex Ryan has lost 3 straight and is in serious danger of missing the playoffs.
Chargers (3-1) @ Broncos (1-3)
Predicted Line: SD by 5.5
Actual Line: SD by 4
Denver is the darkhorse in the Luck Sweepstakes. They'll fall to 1-4 here. Homefield isn't an advantage when the fans are cheering for the 3rd string quarterback. Chargers win 27-20.
San Diego barely eeked out the cover, 29-24, as Tim Tebow's hailmary attempt fell incomplete. Wait, what? Tim Tebow is playing? Oh Lord help us ...
Packers (4-0) @ Falcons (2-2)
Predicted Line: GB by 7
Actual Line: GB by 5.5
Green Bay is a good bet to go 16-0 if Rodgers stays healthy, but that doesn't mean they'll blow out good teams on the road. This should be close and the Pack will win by 3ish. I'll take the Falcons and the points.
You've got to play a perfect game to compete with Green Bay. Atlanta played a perfect 1st quarter and a good 2nd quarter. But a bad 2nd half on both sides of the ball and Green Bay steamrolled them. I don't know if Atlanta stunk or if Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable. Probably both. Packers get St. Louis and Minny in the next two games, so they'll be 7-0 heading into their bye.
Bears (2-2) @ Lions (4-0!!!!!)
Predicted Line: DET by 5
Actual Line: DET by 5
A few thoughts on last week's amazing comeback:
-Matt Stafford was a complete bum in the first half, and a freaking machine in the second half. That's two games in a row. I don't like this trend, but if he's going to only be good in just one half I'm glad it's the 2nd.
-Same goes for Calvin. Imagine if those guys are clicking all 4 quarters.
-The running game was completely non-existent yet again. Jahvid Best appears to have lost his speed, which is a nice way of saying he'll be looking for a job in 3 years. He is dynamite on screen passes but worthless on carries. In other words, Kevin Smith...?
-Somehow Jeff Backus kept DeMarcus Ware from sacking or even pressuring Stafford all game. It was extremely surprising. Lot of help from Pettigrew and the RBs. But still amazing. I'm thinking Ware had an off-day moreso than Backus dominated. Now Jeff gets Julius Peppers, which will not be any easier. He's had a brutal month (Hali, Allen, Ware, Peppers).
-The O-line as a whole is exactly the same as they were last year: totally average. Decent pass-protection, decent run-blocking. Some plays are great, some are lousy. The weakest position is right tackle. Backus gets too many penalties and is too slow. It's the exact same story as 2010. I wish it were better, but I'm mildly and pleasantly surprised that it's not worse.
-The best thing about Burleson and Pettigrew is that they know their roles on the offense. Make a few plays, don't drop passes, block like crazy, don't suck, and force the defense to guard you. If they do their jobs well, Calvin thrives. So far, those two guys deserve a ton of credit for Calvin's MVPish start.
-For the record, the MVP of the first 4 games is Rodgers, then Brady, then Megatron. But having the "First Quarter MVP" debate is stupid.
-There is a very decent chance that Jim Schwartz will be Coach of the Year.
-The defense against Dallas showed a ton of poise. The corners were burned in the 1st half and so were the linebackers. Even the D-line was getting pushed around. Romo bailed us out a lot, but the defense deserves a ton of credit for not quitting.
-Bobby Carpenter deserves consideration as a starting OLB. Justin Durant hasn't really done much in the first 3 games and we don't want him playing less than 100% healthy. Carpenter is the team's best linebacker in coverage.
-Tulloch, Levy, Spievey ... three outstanding tacklers against the run, all struggle in pass coverage. Delmas is the guy everyone thinks of as a great tackler, but he's more of a hard-hitter, not a sure-tackler. And he also stinks in coverage.
-Chris Houston may not be Darelle Revis, but he is going to have a shot at the Pro Bowl. That one-handed interception was awesome and the runback was even better. If that play were Ed Reed or Asante Samuel it would have been all over Sportscenter.
-The depth on the defensive line is incredible. Willie Young, Sammie Hill, and Lawrence Jackson could all start on most teams. And Fairley finally plays this week, just in time for Chicago's weak O-line.
-Tony Romo deserves a lot of blame for the loss, but Stafford probably deserves more credit for the win. It was a combined effort. Calvin Johnson made one of the most impressive catches I've seen in years. If you didn't see the article on Mlive, Chris Carter basically apologized for leaving Calvin out of his "Top 5 Receivers" list and called him the King of Receivers. Way to own up CC. A few weeks too late, but good job.
-Speaking of national attention ... haven't the last two weeks been amazing? We are all over Mike and Mike, on the cover of Sports Illustrated, people are coming out of the woodwork and wearing Lions shirts to Meijer. My first inclination was to kick people off the bandwagon with a steel boot ... but then I warmed up to all this attention. It's nice not being on a wagon by myself.
-So that leads to the question ... what are the chances that Detroit begins the year 5-0 and the bandwagon goes from pretty-darn-crowded to street-market-in-Delhi-crowded?
The momentum is certainly all in Detroit's favor. We've won 4 straight, 3 of which were on the road, and we've won the last two in dramatic fashion. Now we head home, for the first Monday game in 10 years, and the fans haven't been this excited since ... what, 1992?
Chicago has lost 2 of 3, and barely beat Carolina at home last week. (However, let's take note of those two losses: Green Bay and New Orleans, the two best quarterbacks in the NFC.) Jay Cutler has already been sacked a league-high 15 times, and is coming off one of the worst games of his career (107 passing yards).
The Bears are searching for an identity (a great running back and a crappy quarterback on a pass-first offense with no offensive line... hmm?) while the Lions know exactly who they are, they believe in themselves and each other, they are totally clicking, etc, etc. Except for the Backus-Peppers mismatch, every inclination is to take the Lions big. After all, who the heck can defend Calvin Johnson?
I'm slightly nervous about Matt Forte, but I also know how stupid Mike Martz is, and I know that Forte is only going to see 10 or 12 carries, because obvious common sense doesn't apply to Martz. I also trust Stephen Tulloch when it comes to stopping running backs. Remember, Forte's 200 yard game came against a terrible Panthers defense missing their two best linebackers. If we shut down Forte, if we force Cutler to pass, we are going to have a field day. Because although he might go 27-45 for 315 yards and 3 TDs, he'll also take 4 sacks and have 3 turnovers, and those plays will be game-changers.
I'm taking Detroit in a raucous semi-blowout. 38-24.
Update: Fairley will almost definitely play, Durant will be back, and Levy and Delmas are probable, meaning the Lions are at full-strength. The Bears are missing role players at WR, DE and safety, but none of them are great players.
And the Tigers play game 2 in about 3 hours.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Suffering and Rejoicing
My picks were a miserable 5-11 against-the-spread (8-8 straight up). I was destroyed by comebacks; Detroit, San Fran, Cincy, Seattle, and the Giants all mounted enormous comebacks to either win or cover the spread in obnoxious fashion. At halftime of the 1pm games, I was on pace to go 7-2. All of the afternoon games were going my way too until the 4th quarters. I just got lambasted over and over by huge freaking comebacks. Arizona led by 10 with 3 minutes left and lost; Atlanta and Philly both led by 20 in the second half and both gave up 3 TDs in the last 25 minutes to lose ATS; and of course the Lions were trailing by 24 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, but I'm not complaining about that outcome.
Also, my fantasy teams were destroyed by the Ravens defense. I lost all 3 leagues, but had pretty substantial leads in all of them. In the A League, I had the win wrapped up after Beanie Wells put up 3 TDs; I led by 30ish and all he had was the Ravens defense. Well, they promptly scored defensive TDs in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter, and I hate Mark Sanchez even more now. Overall I went 6-6 in the 12 leagues: 3-0 in the leagues in which I own the Ravens D, and 0-4 against them. My favorite non-important team is the Morgan Mouse, the only team I actually drafted in full. I was trailing last night by 2.5 points with only DT Gerald McCoy left. McCoy had 6 tackles and 1 sack to earn me the victory.
But overall, it was a miserable weekend for picks and for my fantasy teams.
However, the Lions are 4-0 and the Tigers are on the verge of advancing to the ALCS, so you won't hear any complaining from me. I'll recap my thoughts on the Lions in a couple days when I get to the week 5 picks. Going to be an interesting week, with tons of injuries (Jerod Mayo, Andre Johnson, Roethlisberger) and a few bye weeks. And of course the Lions first Monday nighter in 10 years.
Completely unrelated to anything: you know that Captain Morgan commercial where all the pirates are having some kind of secret underground meeting, and the waitress drops the glass and it breaks, and the mean old lady grimaces like maybe she'll have the servant girl horsewhipped, and Cap't Morgan decides it's an opportune time to show how much he sympathizes with clumsy waitresses by nudging his glass off the table and watching it shatter, which elicits a jubilee of broken glasses amongst all these pirate leaders and 15th-century politicians, who learn that by shattering a glass you might rekindle a forgotten love or discover a profound sense of youthfulness, and then even the bitchy old hag gets in on the fun, shyly tossing her glass over her head at the wall while smiling flirtatiously at the fun-lovin Capt'n? I can't decide if that's the worst 1 minute in the history of television, but I'm pretty sure it is.
Picks this year:
28-33-3 (43-21 straight up)
Lock: 2-2
Upset: 2-2
Survivor: 4-0
Lions: 1-3
A few last notes:
Don't get too excited about the Giants 3-1 start. From weeks 9 to 13 they play New England, New Orleans, Green Bay and Philly. They aren't winning more than 10 games.
It's okay to panic about the Rams. Even though their schedule gets easy soon, they look like crap. They couldn't stop Ryan Torain and Rex Grossman.
Andrew Luck going to Miami appears very likely. I've been following him a little bit this year and he's only getting better. Dude is a YouTube sensation already.
Peace
Also, my fantasy teams were destroyed by the Ravens defense. I lost all 3 leagues, but had pretty substantial leads in all of them. In the A League, I had the win wrapped up after Beanie Wells put up 3 TDs; I led by 30ish and all he had was the Ravens defense. Well, they promptly scored defensive TDs in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter, and I hate Mark Sanchez even more now. Overall I went 6-6 in the 12 leagues: 3-0 in the leagues in which I own the Ravens D, and 0-4 against them. My favorite non-important team is the Morgan Mouse, the only team I actually drafted in full. I was trailing last night by 2.5 points with only DT Gerald McCoy left. McCoy had 6 tackles and 1 sack to earn me the victory.
But overall, it was a miserable weekend for picks and for my fantasy teams.
However, the Lions are 4-0 and the Tigers are on the verge of advancing to the ALCS, so you won't hear any complaining from me. I'll recap my thoughts on the Lions in a couple days when I get to the week 5 picks. Going to be an interesting week, with tons of injuries (Jerod Mayo, Andre Johnson, Roethlisberger) and a few bye weeks. And of course the Lions first Monday nighter in 10 years.
Completely unrelated to anything: you know that Captain Morgan commercial where all the pirates are having some kind of secret underground meeting, and the waitress drops the glass and it breaks, and the mean old lady grimaces like maybe she'll have the servant girl horsewhipped, and Cap't Morgan decides it's an opportune time to show how much he sympathizes with clumsy waitresses by nudging his glass off the table and watching it shatter, which elicits a jubilee of broken glasses amongst all these pirate leaders and 15th-century politicians, who learn that by shattering a glass you might rekindle a forgotten love or discover a profound sense of youthfulness, and then even the bitchy old hag gets in on the fun, shyly tossing her glass over her head at the wall while smiling flirtatiously at the fun-lovin Capt'n? I can't decide if that's the worst 1 minute in the history of television, but I'm pretty sure it is.
Picks this year:
28-33-3 (43-21 straight up)
Lock: 2-2
Upset: 2-2
Survivor: 4-0
Lions: 1-3
A few last notes:
Don't get too excited about the Giants 3-1 start. From weeks 9 to 13 they play New England, New Orleans, Green Bay and Philly. They aren't winning more than 10 games.
It's okay to panic about the Rams. Even though their schedule gets easy soon, they look like crap. They couldn't stop Ryan Torain and Rex Grossman.
Andrew Luck going to Miami appears very likely. I've been following him a little bit this year and he's only getting better. Dude is a YouTube sensation already.
Peace
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