NFL Preview: Miami through Washington, plus Playoff Picks & Season Awards!

(See Arizona through Kansas City previews below...)

Miami Dolphins:
2010 season: 7-9
My 2010 prediction was: 10-6

21st in total offense; 16th passing offense; 21st rushing offense
6th in total defense; 8th in passing defense; 7th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Twelve weeks into the 2010 season, the Dolphins were 6-5, with all 5 loses against playoff teams. They ended the season 1-4, with three loses against non-playoff teams. During those five games, Henne’s QB rating was a 62.

Key Additions: OC Brian Daboll, RB Reggie Bush, ILB Kevin Burnett, OT Marc Columbo, 1st round pick OG Mike Pouncey, 2nd round pick RB Daniel Thomas, QB Matt Moore

Key Loses:, RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, ILB Channing Crowder, QB Tyler Thigpen, and OC Dan Henning

Main question: Can a very good defense overcome a very bad offense?

That’s an easy answer. Nope. But let’s break it down just for fun.

The Fins thought they found a franchise QB back in 2007 when they took Henne with the first pick in the second round. He started slow, showed some promise, and became a bonafide sleeper. Then last year, he fell completely apart in the last five games. As we’ve seen many times, QBs who end the season on a terrible streak don’t usually recover.

The offseason was miserable for owner Stephen Ross, who furiously pursued Stanford’s head coach to no avail, and then was forced to retain his current coach, mafia boss Tony Soprano. Then the same thing happened with his quarterback; when Ross and Parcells couldn’t pull off a trade for Kyle Orton, they settled for their current QB. Now you’ve got a coach and a quarterback who know they aren’t wanted. Sounds like a winning combination, no?

On top of that, you’ve got a rookie running back who looks terrible and might be slower than Brandon Pettigrew, and then Reggie Bush, a glorified novelty act. Henne has solid receivers and a strong arm, but lacks accuracy and decision-making. The O-line is going to be a strength, with megastud Jake Long at LT and capable rookie Mike Pouncey at center, plus serviceable guards Richie Incognito and Vernon Carey. But the thing about having a good offensive line is you need someone to run behind it. Miami’s offense is going to suck.

The defense, which ranked 6th last year, only lost one starter in Crowder, but replaced him with a better player in Burnett. The D-line is adept at stopping the run and the outside linebackers can get to the passer. Cameron Wake had 14 sacks and rookie Koa Misi had 4.5. Karlos Dansby is a stud ILB and Vontae Davis is a stud CB, possibly the third best in the league behind Revis and Asomugha. Strong safety Yeremiah Bell is a great run-stopper and Sean Smith is an excellent #2 corner. Overall, this unit is one of the best in the league, and would be recognized as such if the offense didn’t betray them on a regular basis.
A lot of teams, such as Cincy and Buffalo, are hoping that strong defenses outweigh their crappy offenses and keep them competitive. Miami is hoping for the same thing, but they have too many variables working against them. The players lack motivation, knowing that the coach and quarterback will be replaced as soon as a replacement is found. It wouldn’t shock me to see the defense tank and steer the Dolphins towards a top 5 pick and a new quarterback to build around. I fully expect Miami to begin the year 0-5 against a brutal schedule, and it’ll be tough sledding to escape from the bottom of the AFC East. Final prediction: 2-14.

Minnesota Vikings:
2010 season: 6-10
My 2010 prediction was: 11-5

23rd in total offense; 26th passing offense; 10th rushing offense
8th in total defense; 10th in passing defense; 9th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Brett Favre was bad last year, with a 69.9 rating, 7.0 YPA, 11 TDs and 19 INTs. But Donovan McNabb wasn’t much better – 77.1 rating, 7.1 YPA, 14 TDs, 15 picks.

Key Additions: QB Donovan McNabb, 1st round pick QB Christian Ponder, OT Charlie Johnson, WRs Devin Aromashadu and Michael Jenkins, 2nd round pick TE Kyle Rudolph, DT Remi Ayodele, OC Bill Musgrave, 3rd round pick DT Christian Ballard, linebackers coach Mike Singletary

Key Loses: QB Brett Favre, WR Sidney Rice, OT Bryant McKinnie, DE Ray Edwards, DT Pat Williams, OLB Ben Leber, CB Lito Sheppard, FS Madieu Williams, and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell

Main question: How far can AP carry them?

Few teams lost more than the Vikings did this offseason. Defensively, they lost four key starters. On offense, they lost a quarterback, a left tackle, and a starting receiver. Granted, the quarterback was putrid and the tackle was substandard, but the replacements aren’t any better. And nothing has been done to replace the receiver or the defenders except signing some scrubs and cast-offs and rookies. In all, it was a very Lions-esque offseason for the Vikes.

Replacing Brett Favre with Donovan McNabb is like finding out you no longer have cancer but you now have AIDS. Maybe that isn’t a funny joke. Good thing I don’t have to be politically correct. Anyway, McNabb stinks, he’s been washed-up for several years, and he’s still a superstar in his own mind. He’s the worst possible veteran for a rookie to learn the ropes from. Other than Favre of course.
Since Donovan has a crappy arm and no receivers, expect a dismal passing season, a sub-60 completion percentage, and tons of turnovers. I think Percy Harvin will have pretty good numbers since he’s the only viable receiver, especially as the Vikes utilize a heavy dose of two-TE formations. Shiancoe and Rudolph are both capable receivers with good hands, but are both big enough to pass-protect. That will help compensate for a lackluster offensive line with shaky tackles, including LT Charlie Johnson who completely stunk on the Colts. Johnson replaces McKinnie, and this is a major downgrade for the Vikings.

Of course, the Vikings have the league’s best running back, so they’ll survive on offense. Peterson doesn’t need gaping holes to maintain his 4.5 YPC and surpass 1,300 yards this year. LG Steve Hutchinson is nearing 35 years old, but still plenty good.

The issue offensively is going to be confusion of identity. Obviously, this should be a run-first, control-the-clock, grind-it-out offense, giving AP 340 carries, and using Toby Gerhard a little bit for change-of-pace. But with new O-coordinator Bill Musgrave, it might distort into a pass-heavy, West-Coast-Wannabe fiasco that underutilizes its best player and allows an insane amount of sacks. That would be best case scenario, of course, for the Lions.

As for Christian Ponder, I think he’ll have to wait until at least the second half of the season before he sees the field. He’ll have plenty of chances to learn what NOT to do.

The offense is going to be messy as they try to replace Favre and McKinnie and Rice. But the defense might be in even more trouble replacing Edwards, Leber, FS Williams and DT Williams. They still have their 3 best defensive players: Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, and E.J. Henderson, plus they retained solid starters in Chad Greenway and Antoine Winfield. But picking up Eric Henderson, E.J.’s little brother, was just silly at outside linebacker. There’s no room for nepotism in the NFL. Ayodele and Brian Robinson are crap replacements on the D-line, and CB Cedric Griffin is recovering from an ACL tear. It’s a defense with a few bright spots, but mostly drear.

The 8th ranked defense is probably going to fall into the mid-teens, while the 23rd ranked offense doesn’t get any better. The fans will want to see Ponder while McNabb struggles, Brett Favre will probably threaten to un-retire, and overall, it’s going to suck to be a Vikings fan. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily finish worse than last year’s 6-10.

Aside from their own division and the tough NFC South, Minnesota gets bonus games against the hapless Cardinals and Redskins, two juggernauts of suckiness. They also get easy wins against Denver and Oakland and Carolina, so 5 or 6 wins should come easy. The question was, how far can AP carry them? I’ll say he does an admirable job leading them to 8-8.

New England Patriots:
2010 season: 14-2
My 2010 prediction was: 12-4

8th in total offense; 11th passing offense; 9th rushing offense
25th in total defense; 30th in passing defense; 11th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Their defense was the worst in the NFL on third-downs, allowing opponents to convert 47.1% of the time.

Key Additions: WR Chad Ochocinco, DT Albert Haynesworth, DE Shaun Ellis, DE Andre Carter, 1st round pick OT Nate Solder, 2nd round pick CB Ras I-Dowling, 3rd round picks RB Shane Vereen and RB Stevan Ridley, 3rd round pick QB Ryan Mallet

Key Loses: G Stephen Neal, DE Ty Warren, OLB Tully Banta-Cain,

Main question: What will Brady do as an encore for one of the greatest seasons in NFL history?

Watching Tom Brady blossom in the wake of the Randy Moss trade, as he rejuvenated Deion Branch and turned two rookie tight ends into stars, was simply amazing. It was like the 2004 Brady, dominating defenses with a dink-and-dump offense run to perfection, only this version of Brady is smarter, tougher, and meaner. He was simply the best player in the NFL last season, and no one was close.

But then, a strange thing happened. He got ousted from the playoffs by the insufferably annoying Jets, the same team he thrashed 45-3 in December. For the second straight year, the Pats dominated the regular season and then lost their first playoff game. It’s really perplexing.

So what should we expect this year from Brady and the rag-tags? More flawless preformances with sweaty long hair? More unsung heroes like Danny Woodhead and Ben-Jarvus-Green-Feet-Studio or whatever his name is. More 30/43 masterpieces against elite defenses? More streaks of 300+ attempts without an interception? I really have no idea, but I can’t wait to find out.

Acquiring Chad Ochocinco was a curious move for the typically straight-laced Patriots, but then again, that Randy Moss thing worked out pretty well. When in doubt, don’t doubt Bill Belichick. Solder and the two rookie running backs give the offense more fun wrinkles. Word is that Vereen looks amazing in camp.

Then there’s the defense that somehow ranked 30th against the pass despite leading the league in INTs. I have a pretty simple solution: teams were losing, so they were throwing. Thus, lots of passing yards. In terms of YPA, New England ranked 14th; for opposing QB rating, 13th; total sacks, 14th. So while they gave up a ton of yards through the air in desperate comeback attempts, they were way better than the 30th best secondary. Statistics sometimes lie.

Leading the defense is inside linebacker Jerod Mayo, who also led the NFL in tackles. The inside is manned by nosetackle Vince Wilfork, a deserving Pro Bowler, and Haynesworth, who was awesome 3 years ago but now seems to hate life. Maybe Belichick can reinvigorate his career, but if not, no big loss. Losing Ty Warren isn’t great, but not detrimental. Shaun Ellis (72 sacks in 11 years) and Andre Carter (11 sacks just two years ago) both have potential to fit into that DE spot and thrive.

The secondary has a rising star in CB Devin McCourty, a Pro Bowl rookie and runner-up for D-ROY. Pat Chung and Brandon Merriweather are above-average safeties, and Leigh Bodden is good enough for the CB#2 spot.

Overall, New England isn’t quite as stacked as the Packers from top to bottom, but it’s close, and they have the best player in the NFL. The defense has a few gaps, the O-line isn’t perfect, and the 3rd down defense obviously needs to improve. They’ve got an easy schedule for most of the season, with a few tough games peppered in, such as Philly, Pittsburgh and Indy. All they really need to do is sweep the Jets and they’ll easily win a first-round bye. I see them going 13-3, and while Brady isn’t going to repeat his 111 QB rating, I’m more than happy to have him as my fantasy quarterback in 4 leagues.

New Orleans Saints:
2010 season: 11-5
My 2010 prediction was: 8-8

6th in total offense; 3rd passing offense; 28th rushing offense
4th in total defense; 4th in passing defense; 16th in rushing defense

*Key stat – The Saints only played three above .500 teams last year, and Brees still managed to throw a career-high 22 picks. .

Key Additions: RB Darren Sproles, 1st round pick RB Mark Ingram, 1st round pick DE Cameron Jordan, C Olin Kreutz, DT Aubrayo Franklin, DT Shaun Rogers, CB Fabian Washington, DT Turk McBride

Key Loses: RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, DT Remi Ayodele, OLB Danny Clark, CB Randall Gay

Main question: Will Brees bounce back from his sub-par (by his standards) 2010 season?

There’s not much to dislike about the Saints offseason. They got rid of two non-productive headaches in Bush and Shockey, and replaced them with much better players in Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham. In fact, both Sproles and Graham are huge sleepers on my fantasy radar. Graham is being drafted in the 8-10 range of tight ends, and should be 4th behind Gates, Witten and Finley. I wouldn’t be shocked if he racks up 100 catches and 10 TDs.

As Andy Szymas astutely pointed out the other day, it seem like the Saints have 5 receivers more than any other team. The primary guy is Colston, but then there's Moore, Henderson, Meachem … none are great talents, none are fantasy studs, but all of them get the job done for Brees. With an elite offensive line anchored by super guards Evans and Nicks, plus newly-acquired center Olin Kreutz, Brees should have plenty of time to sit back in the pocket and make his perfect throws. There’s no excuse for him to toss another 22 picks. If the Saints’ offense struggles, he has to point the finger at himself.

But I don’t think it will. The defense is what concerns me. As you can see, New Orleans was great against the pass, but only average in run defense. To remedy that, they picked up a 320-pound run-stuffing specialist named Aubrayo Franklin, a six-year starter for the Niners and Ravens. For depth, they picked up numbskull Shaun Rogers.

New Orleans ranked 19th in sacks last year despite facing a really easy schedule, so they added Cameron Jordan to improve the pass rush. The linebackers aren’t exceptional, but MLB Jonathan Vilma should be better this year now that he’s recovered from a groin injury. The outside linebacker spots are scrubs, both corners are mediocre, but somehow they ranked 4th against the pass. I don’t think that’ll happen again this year.

I’m actually down on the entire NFC South this year, for one primary reason. Last year, they all enjoyed 4 games against the worst division in football. This year, the Saints and their divisional friends must instead face the NFC North, a much tougher task. The lucky ones this season are the members of the AFC North and NFC East, who each get four freebies against the worthless NFC West. (Actually, the Rams shouldn't considered a total pushover anymore. More on them later)

That’s why I have Atlanta down from 13-3 to 9-7, and that’s why I’m projecting a modest 10-6 for the Saints. It’s a brutal schedule when you factor in 4 do-or-die games against the Falcons and Bucs, plus the Packers, Colts, Texans…

I love Drew Brees, I think he’s somehow underrated despite winning the Super Bowl two years ago, and yet I think the schedule keeps New Orleans from winning more than 10 games. 10-6 and a strong playoff run.

New York Giants:
2010 season: 10-6
My 2010 prediction was: 9-7

5th in total offense; 10th passing offense; 6th rushing offense
7th in total defense; 9th in passing defense; 8th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Eli Manning stinks.

Key Additions: 1st round pick CB Prince Amukamara, OG Stacy Andrews, C David Baas, NT Gabe Watson, 2nd round pick DT Marvin Austin

Key Loses: WR Steve Smith, C Shaun O’Hara, DT Barry Coefield, TE Kevin Boss, FB Madison Hedgecock, OG Rich Seubert

Main question: With the Dream Team Eagles and the recuperated Cowboys in their division, what does New York have to do to contend for a playoff push?

It’s not impossible, though it’s a long shot. The offseason was tough for the Giants, as they lost two starting O-lineman, a solid DT, 3 good starters on offense (FB, WR, TE), and then watched their 1st round pick break his foot, only to have his replacement tear his ACL. All the while, Philly was loading up on Pro Bowlers and becoming unbeatable.

So how can the Giants stay competitive and fight for a wildcard? Well for starters, they need to win their first 2 games.

Look at the Giants schedule: the first 7 games are against 6 non-playoff teams (I’m not counting Seattle). Then the next 9 are against 5 playoff teams, including the Pats and Pack, plus 2 extras against Dallas. Of their final 9 games, only 1 is against an inferior opponent.

So in order to have a chance, the Giants need to start out sprinting. If they lose week 1 to Washington, the season is over. They need to beat Arizona week 4, Buffalo week 6, and Miami week 8. They can’t mess around with those cupcakes, because the stretch from weeks 9 to 13 features 4 of the 5 best teams in the league. Ouch.

It’s possible, I suppose, for the Giants to start out 6-1 and then finish 10-6 or 9-7. But the beginning of the season is going to be toughest on teams with a lot of discontinuity, as it always is, but especially due to the lockout. The Giants are slammed by discontinuity.

The left tackle position will be occupied by totally unproven William Beatty, who will almost certainly struggle. Baas will replace O’Hara at center (downgrade) and David Diehl moves over to LG. The right side of the line (Snee and McKenzie) is awesome, so defenses will shift over accordingly.

Losing tight end Kevin Boss doesn’t hurt the aerial game, but it hurts the blocking a lot. So does losing the fullback. And Steve Smith, one of the NFL’s best route-runners, is also gone (to the Eagles, no less). The only good news was re-signing Ahmad Bradshaw to a 4-year, $18 million deal. But now that he’s been paid, what’s to keep him from ‘getting hurt?’

Eli Manning was abysmal last year, throwing more INTs than Rodgers, Brady and Vick combined. He was intercepted once every 21 passes, and had multiple picks in 8 games. His yards and TDs look respectable because he threw so many dang passes, but losing five starters on offense is going to hurt. I’ve been ragging on Eli since he was drafted and even as he won a Super Bowl. I’ll say the same thing I’ve always said: if his last name was Jones, or Karzinski, there’s no dang way he’d still be a starting QB.

But there is a reason that the Giants won the 2008 Super Bowl, and that was the defensive line. This year, it might be better than it was then, despite losing a starting DT in Coefield. That’s because Jason Pierre-Paul is ready to come into his own as an elite pass-rusher, and across from Justin Tuck that will be lethal. Of course, they’ve still got holdout Osi Umenyiora, who will end up playing this year, like Vincent Jackson did last year for the Chargers, trying to earn either a contract or a trade. With those three DEs (Tuck moves inside on passing downs), offensive lines are going to be tormented.

But just like Eli’s brother’s team shows us, having great DEs without a good secondary doesn’t work. The Giants at least tried to assemble a good secondary, unlike Indianapolis, but 2 starting corners have got injured this summer. Corey Webster still occupies the CB#1 spot, but now the #2 spot belongs to Aaron Ross, a beatable scrub. The safeties are both better in run support than coverage, and the linebackers are good but not amazing. Overall, it’s a very solid defense, but they’ll struggle with continuity at the DT and CB positions.

So despite having a dopey quarterback and a patch-work offense, I think the Giants will score plenty of points and rack up plenty of sacks, and predictably win most of their games during the first 7 weeks. I would guess 5-2. But then, just when people are starting to say “Maybe Eli was right when he compared himself to Tom Brady!”, the Giants will go on a 1-5 stretch, Tom Coughlin will be fired, Eli will be booed, and the Giants will finish the season 7-9 with their heads hung in shame.

New York Jets:
2010 season: 11-5
My 2010 prediction was: 9-7

11th in total offense; 22nd passing offense; 4th rushing offense
3rd in total defense; 6th in passing defense; 3rd in rushing defense

*Key stat – The Jets allowed just 8 passing TDs in 2009; last year they surrendered 24.

Key Additions: WRs Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason, DE Aaron Maybin, 1st round pick DT Muhammad Wilkerson, 2nd round pick NT Kendrick Ellis

Key Loses: WRs Braylon Edwards and Jericho Cotchery, OT Damien Woody, DE Shaun Ellis, NT Kris Jenkins, DE Vernon Gholston, OLB Jason Taylor, WR Brad Smith,

Main question: Can Sanchez increase his completion percentage to a respectable number and by doing so, give the Jets another chance at the playoffs?

In two years, Mark Sanchez has been to two AFC Championship games. He’s 4-2 in the playoffs, with all 6 games on the road. He also has two regular seasons in which he’s compiled completion percentages of 53.8% and 54.8%, good enough to rank 29th both years. That’s okay as a rookie, but this year he’s got to improve.

Sanchez did improve his TD/INT ratio from 12/20 to 17/13, and was sacked once per 18 attempts, an improvement from his rookie season when he was taken down once per 14. A chance of scenery might help Sanchize; while Burress and Mason aren’t athletic improvements over Edwards and Cotchery, they are approximately equal and give a spark of new energy. Dustin Keller is a good pass-catching TE, but a crap blocker.

The O-line loses RT Damien Woody, the former Patriot and Lion, who retired at age 33. His replacement, Wayne Hunter, committed 8 penalties last year in just 6 games. Oops. But the rest of the line, anchored by All Pro center Nick Mangold and really good LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, is all set. The guards are real good too. That’s why the Jets are perennially a top-5 running team, regardless of who the RB is.

This year it looks like Shonn Greene will carry a much heavier load, while washed-up LT continues to be a superstar in his own mind. Rex Ryan recently said something along the lines of “We plan on giving defenses a heavy dose of Shonn Greene, and cramming it down their throats!” Or something like that. I’m sure with his 4.1 YPC and 2 TDs last year, defenses are terrified.

It’s a very limited offense, highlighted by a true stud WR in Holmes, but crippled by an inaccurate quarterback and defense-minded coach. Once again, they’ll rank top 5 in rushing, bottom 10 in passing. Unless Sanchez really has a turnaround.

So just how good can the defense be? Can they carry them to a third-straight playoff appearance? Unfortunately, I think they can.

Assuming New England plays to their potential and wins 13+ games, the Jets are going to be battling for a wildcard spot, and that typically requires 10 wins. Darrelle Revis probably counts as 4 wins single-handedly. He will take an opposing stud WR (such as Calvin Johnson last year) and reduce him to one catch for 13 yards. It’s sick.

The middle linebackers (Harris and Scott) are also great, and Cromartie is just fine as a CB#2. He plays inconsistently, but is capable of big plays. When the Jets were close to signing Asomugha, it was terrifying for everybody. I’m just so glad it didn’t happen.

If the defense has a weakness, it’s the pass rush, which generated only 40 sacks last year (9th most), an oddly low figure for a Rex Ryan blitz-crazy defense. They blitzed as much as anybody, but just didn’t have the right athletes.

OLB Calvin Pace was injured sporadically all of 2010, and OLB Bryan Thomas just wasn’t very good. They brought in Aaron Maybin (megabust from the Bills) and rookie Muhammad Wilkerson (more of a run-stuffer) to bolster the front 7, but they’ll still struggle at rushing the passer. In fact, they’ll probably drop below 40 sacks, unless somehow emerges from the woodwork.

But a defense that can blanket receivers and stuff the run is good enough, and because of that they’ll force plenty of 3rd and longs which will turn into blitzes and some sacks. It’s probably a slightly overrated defense overall, but having Revis makes them always formidable.

The schedule is average, with 6 tough games, 8 easy ones, and 2 in-between. It’s a big year for Sanchez to prove himself, as he faces some pretty scary defenses. And while I don’t have faith in Rex Ryan’s annual championship guarantee, I do think this team sneaks into the playoffs again, going 10-6.

Oakland Raiders:
2010 season: 8-8
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

10th in total offense; 23rd passing offense; 2nd rushing offense
11th in total defense; 2nd in passing defense; 29th in rushing defense

*Key stat – CB Nnamdi Asomugha has allowed just 41 completions in the last 4 years. That’s an average of 0.68 completions per game over 60 games. Now, he’s on the Eagles, if you haven’t heard.

Key Additions: Head Coach Hue Jackson, OC Al Saunders, DC Chuck Bresnahan, QB Trent Edwards, TE Kevin Boss, 2nd round pick C Stefen Wisniewski, OT Stephen Heyer, and of course, Supplemental Draft Choice QB Terrelle Pryor

Key Loses: CB Nnamdi Asomugha, TE Zach Miller, coach Tom Cable, both coordinators, QB Bruce Gradkowski, G Robert Gallery, OLB Thomas Howard

Main question: WTF??????

Losing Nnamdi was understandable. A player that great and that smart isn’t going to spend his entire career with a dysfunctional team. Maybe the Raiders could have done more to try to keep him, but they didn’t have much of a chance. The real stumper is why the Raiders fired coach Tom Cable and both coordinators after the team went 8-8, their best record since 2002 when they lost the Super Bowl. Understandably, the only teams they beat were AFC West and NFC West foes, and maybe they could have won 9 or 10 games with that schedule, but really, did Tom Cable deserve to be fired?

Losing both coordinators is a double-whammy because of the lockout. Now Al Saunders and Chuck Bresnahan have basically two months to implement their new systems, so expect plenty of confusion and ‘transitioning’ and terrible football. Throw in the fact that Oakland lost its best receiver (TE Zach Miller) and retained its less-than-mediocre quarterback (Jason Campbell) without acquiring any new offensive starters other than a rookie 2nd round center, and the fact that Oakland was the only team in the NFL that didn’t have a 1st round pick in 2011 … and you’ve got arguably the worst offseason any team has had in the last decade, other than the Cavs in 2010.

The offense has only one exciting player, and that’s injury-prone RB Darren McFadden. The offensive line is atrocious – probably the league’s worst – and the only viable receiver is converted-kick-returner Jacoby Ford, who is lightning fast but may or may not know how to play receiver. The QB position is just sad, as the Raiders made no efforts to improve over Jason Campbell.

Defensively, the Raiders will be completely lost without Nnamdi, and that’s an understatement. The secondary now consists of Stanford Routt, Chris Johnson, Chimdi Chekwa, Tyvon Branch, and Michael Huff. Of those, only Huff is a pro-caliber player, and he just got paid big money, so the motivation is gone. Now add to their troubles that they all need to pick up an incredible amount of slack, as the just lost the league’s best shutdown corner.

Fortunately the linebackers in Oakland are very solid. At least something isn’t a complete dumpster fire. Rolando McClain is going to be a very good pro (I pegged him for D-ROY last year, to my everlasting shame), and Kamerion Wimbley had 9 sacks from the OLB position. Oakland actually ranked 3rd in total sacks, behind only the two teams that played in the Super Bowl. But you’ve got to imagine at least 10 of those 47 sacks had something to do with Asomugha’s coverage. The entire defense is going to take a major step backwards.

The D-line was worthless against the run last year, and amazingly didn’t pick up a single player to help in that area. In fact, all the defense did was lose its best player and its coordinator, and nothing else whatsoever. Oakland has ranked 2nd, 7th, 10th, 8th, and 1st in passing defense the last five years with Nnamdi. Without him, the best case scenario is anything but 32nd.

Remember, the Cavs lost 26 straight games, an NBA record, in their first year without LeBron James.

I’m picking Oakland to go 3-13, even though their talent suggests 0-16. With two games against Denver, plus Buffalo, Miami and a home game against the Bears, they should be able to eek a few wins. I’m also planning to pick up receivers in fantasy football all season long who have matchups against the Raiders. Week one, I’ll be rolling with Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas, and I doubt I’ll be disappointed.

Philadelphia Eagles:
2010 season: 11-5
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

2nd in total offense; 9th passing offense; 5th rushing offense
12th in total defense; 15th in passing defense; 15th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Michael Vick attempted fewer passes last year than Shaun Hill.

Key Additions: CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, RT Ryan Harris, WR Steve Smith, DE Jason Babin, DT Cullen Jenkins, QB Vince Young, RB Ronnie Brown, OG Evan Mathis, DT Anthony Hargrove, 1st round pick OG Danny Watkins, 2nd round pick S Jaiquawn Jarrett, 4th round pick MLB Casey Matthews

Key Loses: D-Coordinator Sean McDermott, QB Kevin Kolb, FB Leonard Weaver, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB Ernie Sims, ILB Stewart Bradley, S Quintin Mikell, K David Akers

Main question: Will the ‘Dream Team’ play with a Miami-Heat-esque aura of entitlement?

While everyone else was hyperventilating about Michael Vick and penciling the Eagles into the 2012 Super Bowl, I wasn’t so sure they were even a playoff team. I just don’t trust a human being who tortures dogs for fun. I just think there’s gotta be something wrong with him, mentally, emotionally, and sooner or later that’s going to manifest itself on the field. It’s the same sort of deal with Stafford, minus the dog-killing. I know he’s got a great arm, and he says all the right things, but I just get the feeling from him that football is not his life. To be a Rodgers or Brady, football has to be your life. I think Stafford would rather party than study gamefilm. That’s okay, that’s his preference. Not everyone can be Peyton Manning for a reason. I see guys like Bradford and Ryan, and I imagine them studying gamefilm all winter long, lighting weights and drinking protein shakes. I see Stafford, with the backwards hat and carefree smile, and I imagine him on a party boat, a little bit drunk, dancing with girls in bikinis, listening to country music. Great, enjoy your life, I don’t care. But I don’t think that’s the path to NFL greatness.

Anyway. Back to Vick. The dude is obviously a freak athlete, the best dual-threat QB ever, and better than anybody in the NFL at extending plays with his feet. Last year he was exceptional, no doubt. Can he stay healthy? Can he remain accurate? Can he play turnover-free again? Those are the three key questions, and it’ll be very surprising if the answer is ‘yes’ to all three. But if it is, congratulations Eagles, you are going to dominate.

Vick’s primary weakness, as I mentioned, is mental. Not only that desire to win no matter what it takes, but the cerebral aspect of the game. Being able to read blitzes and coverages. Last year we saw him get razzed near the end of the season by Minnesota and Green Bay, two defenses that brought a lot of blitzes. Coordinators are scared of his feet, but understand that the best way to defend him is to bring pressure and force him to throw. How he responds to that will be one of the most interesting storylines of 2011.

Of course, the Eagles are no longer a team that really needs Michael Vick in order to make the playoffs. They could probably go 10-6 with Drew Stanton. Not only do they have elite talent at RB, WR, and TE, but they have exceptional depth at all 3 positions. The offensive line is improved, with Watkins and Harris both new starters on the right side, and Mathis brought in for depth. Some people hated the draft choice of 27-year old Danny Watkins, the oldest rookie ever, in the 1st round. I loved it. The dude can play; he’s NFL-ready now, and the Eagles are ready to win now. It made sense. If he gives you 10 good years and then retires, that’s better than a 20-year old kid who gives you 3 crappy years and then goes to Seattle’s practice squad.

On a Madden Scale, I’d say the Eagles have 90+ ratings at every position on offense, including Steve Smith (a supreme possession guy) as their #3 receiver, and an overall offense that probably ranks a 95. Vick might stink, or he might get hurt, or maybe both. Vince Young is the new backup, and he would likely stink too. If third-stringer Mike Kafka was forced to play 6 games, I still would like the Eagles offense a lot. And that’s saying something.

But the defense, which actually managed to rank 12th overall last year, is downright frightening. To put it in Madden terms again, you’ve got a 99 corner, a 95 corner, and three defensive linemen who are all mid 90s. It’s freaking treacherous.

If there’s a weakness, it’s the linebackers. OLB Jamar Chaney is a returning starter from last year, but the top two LBs in terms of tackling (Sims and Bradley) are gone. Playing MLB will probably be Clay Matthew’s little brother, Casey Matthews, a 4th round rookie, and next to him is Moise Fokou, who is not exciting.

But the linebackers don’t matter too much with Trent Cole, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin up front. That trio should combine for at least 25 sacks, as they amassed 29.5 last year on three separate teams. Like the Lions, Philly will be able to generate a pass-rush using only its 4 D-linemen, thus the linebackers will be free to roam in coverage and run support.

Having Nnamdi Asomugha at corner is a luxury no other team has except the Jets. He’ll eliminate #1 receivers all season long; in fact, as the ‘key stat’ for Oakland alluded to, quarterbacks don’t even throw in his direction anymore. That stopped about 4 years ago, when they realized he wasn’t allowing completions. Having Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel at the other cornerback spots is just an embarrassment of riches. Philly is listening to trade offers for Samuel, but wouldn’t mind bringing a Pro Bowler off the bench in nickel formations. DRC is going to see a ton of passes thrown his way with Asomugha on the other side, and is a safe bet to lead the NFL in interceptions.

To make things even more magical, Philly faces the NFC West this year, and has bonus games against the fellow-division winners, Chicago and Atlanta. Fortunately for them, the best teams in those divisions are actually Green Bay and New Orleans. So somehow, they play only one top-5 team all year, and that’s New England at home, week 12.

I don’t think it’s fair that Philly is being put in the same sentence as the Miami Heat. I know it makes sense on paper, but none of their players took the easy way out like LeBron. Nnamdi made a smart choice, and I think it’ll pay off. They’re going to give the Packers a run for their money when it comes to homefield in the playoffs. I’ll say 14-2, just like the Pack.

Pittsburgh Steelers:
2010 season: 12-4
My 2010 prediction was: 9-7

14th in total offense; 14th passing offense; 11th rushing offense
2nd in total defense; 12th in passing defense; 1st in rushing defense

*Key stat – They didn’t allow a single run of 25 yards all season.

Key Additions: 1st round pick DE Cameron Heyward, 2nd round pick OT Marcus Gilbert

Key Loses: OT Max Starks, OT Flozell Adams, TE Matt Spaeth

Main question: Can they avoid the Super Bowl Loser curse?

As you know, there is no love lost between me and the Pittsburgh Steelers. I pretty much hate everything that is the color yellow, including the sun and daffodils. I cheer against them in secret, hoping my wife won’t notice, although my cover is pretty much blown by now. It’s nothing personal, I just detest every single little thing about them.

Because of that, I’ve been able to take off the rose-colored glasses and see them for what they really are: a dominant defense. Every drop of credit that Ben Roethlisberger gets for the two Super Bowls is too much. The dude is a liability, inaccurate, stupid, and implausibly lucky. Although, it’s not completely his fault. The O-line is even worse.

The only reason Roethlisberger hasn’t been sacked 300 times in the last 3 years is because he’s 50 pounds heavier and 6 inches bigger than any other quarterback in the league. It’s like little kids trying to sack their dad in the backyard. If you get 4 hanging on, maybe you can bring him down slowly, but he’ll still release the ball. It’s absurd. I’m surprised more teams haven’t caught on and signed guys like Dwight Howard to play quarterback.

The line is under a little bit of transition this year, with Starks being cut and underwhelming Jonathan Scott taking his place at LT. The center and RT positions are manned adequately by Pouncey and Willie Colon, although Colon tore his Achilles last year and might not be 100%. The guards are awful, both near the league-lead in sacks allowed and penalties, and both struggling with injuries. They really should have taken an offensive lineman in the first round of the draft, but chose to keep stockpiling on OLBs.

The #1 receiver in Pittsburgh is speedster Mike Wallace, not Dancer Hines Ward, who is 35 but plays like he’s 75. Emmanuel Sanders is the deep-threat to watch, and Heath Miller is solid all-around, both in the blocking game and as a red-zone receiver. I like Mike Wallace a little bit in fantasy leagues, but hate him in PPR formats. Last year he only caught 60 balls, which is terrible for a #1 receiver. But his 21 YPR was tops in the AFC, and he had 5 TDs of at least 50 yards. He’s the lesser-known version of DeSean Jackson.

Rashard Mendenhall had a terrible offseason when it comes to reputation. During the 2010 season, if you asked 100 football fans what they thought of him, 99 would have said “Pretty good Steelers running back.” Now, if you asked the same group, at least 95 people would say “Freaking psycho terrorist-loving motherf&%$.” Or something like that. Using Twitter to proclaim your love for Osama bin Laden isn’t the smartest way to spend an offseason. Neither is raping drunk 18-year olds, assaulting a convenience store worker, getting a DUI at 4am, or telling a magazine that you would not piss on the NFL commissioner if he were burning alive.

Great summer Steelers. You guys are so classy.

I could ramble on and on about the defense, but you guys know this drill by now. Polamalu is an A++ safety who can defend the pass and run simultaneously, and all 4 linebackers are Pro Bowl caliber, while all 3 D-lineman are considerably above-average. The corners stink, they always do, but it doesn’t matter unless Troy gets hurt. At least they’ve got continuity this year, with the same starting CBs as last year. Ryan Clark’s not a bad free safety. This is the best defense in football by a mile, and although Harrison is 33 and Polamalu’s 30, they’ve got at least one more dominant year in them.

The main thing working against them is the hangover of losing a Super Bowl. 9 of the last 13 Super Bowl losers did not make the playoffs the following year, and 7 of them had losing records. Having a very good Baltimore team in the AFC North means Pittsburgh needs to buckle down and win at least 12 to secure a playoff spot. With the freaking NFC West on the schedule, that shouldn’t be hard.

Although 3 of their first 4 games are brutal, Pittsburgh ends the season with 7 straight games against duds. They’re usually good for one inexplicable loss to an inferior team, so I’ll say they go 11-5.

San Diego Chargers:
2010 season: 9-7
My 2010 prediction was: 11-5

1st in total offense; 2nd passing offense; 15th rushing offense
1st in total defense; 1st in passing defense; 4th in rushing defense

*Key stat – If you’re trying to figure out how they ranked 1st in passing defense, it might be related to the fact that they only faced 2 good quarterbacks last season. Against those good QBs, they gave up an average of 222 passing yards per game, which would have ranked them 19th.

Key Additions: SS Bob Sanders, ILB Takeo Spikes, WR Laurent Robinson, 1st round pick DE Corey Liuget, defensive coordinator Greg Manusky

Key Loses: D-coordinator Ron Rivera, RB Darren Sproles, ILB Kevin Burnett, ILB Brandon Siler, WRs Legedu Naanee and Craig Davis

Main question: Is this the year of Phillip Rivers?

Last year, I dumbly predicted that San Diego would race out to a 6-0 record against an easy schedule, and then collapse to 11-5. Instead, they started 2-5, then won 7 of their next 9 to fall just short of a playoff birth. Of those 5 early losses, at least three of them could fairly be blamed on special teams. The Chargers had 4 punts blocked and gave up 4 return TDs, causing many folks to say they had the worst special teams in NFL history. Their kick coverage team essentially cost Phillip Rivers a playoff birth.

Rivers certainly earned his spot in the postseason, with a blistering 101.8 QB rating last season, featuring the league’s best YPA, something he’s done in three straight seasons. The fact is, with all the talk about Cutler and Stafford and Flacco and their “big arms,” nobody throws a better deep ball than Phillip Rivers. Nobody is even close.

With Vincent Jackson holding out for 10 weeks and Gates being hurt for 6 games (plus another 5 games that he played injured), Rivers put up the second best passing numbers in the league with Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee as his primary targets, not to mention the immortal Seyi Ajirotutu. This year, Rivers gets his top two targets fully healthy, and also the Pro Bowl left tackle who missed 6 games holding out in 2010, AND the promising young running back who missed most of last season too.

No offense was more ravaged with injuries and holdouts than the Chargers, and yet Rivers led them to the #2 passing offense in football. Is there any reason to think Rivers WON’T win the MVP in 2011?

A lot of folks, particularly in fantasy circles, hate Ryan Matthews. The Fresno State product did nothing in his rookie season, other than hurt his ankle and get outshined by Mike Tolbert. But this dude is an all-around stud with a multi-faceted game, and it’s too soon to give up on him. He doesn’t have CJ-type speed and he won’t catch more than 30 passes, but he can do the job on 1st and 2nd down, and that’s all you need on a pass-first team. He’ll have a good enough season to keep defenses honest.

I’m really high on both V-Jack and Gates this year, expecting 1,000 yards and 10 TDs from both. Rivers was picked to win the MVP by 3 of the 12 leading experts at ESPN, including the all-knowing Adam Schefter, and that’s good enough for me. Mike Greenberg also picked Rivers, which is probably a bad omen. But I was leaning towards picking him too, even before I saw Schefty’s prediction. So it’s official: Rivers is my MVP pick for 2011.

Looking at the defense, it’s insane that they ranked #1 overall last year, ahead of Pittsburgh and Green Bay. But everyone pretty much knows it’s insane, so much so that the Chargers defense has somehow become underrated, despite giving up a league-low 271 yards of offense per game.

As I alluded to earlier, they were able to do that thanks to games against dreadful quarterbacks. They played Jason Campbell twice, Matt Cassel twice, Orton, Tebow, Garrard, Palmer, Hasselbeck, Bradford, Max Hall, Alex Smith, and Vince Young. In other words, they got to play the NFC West and their own sad division. So it would be expected that this year they’d face a long list of elite signal-callers. But not so.

They get Sanchez, Cutler, Henne, Fitzpatrick, McNabb, Garrard, and six games against the crappy QBs in their own division. In fact, Matt Stafford might be the fourth best quarterback they face all season. Talk about incredible luck.

With four new starters and a new coordinator, it’s plausible that the defense could completely stink this year, but I doubt it. They lost ILBs Kevin Burnett and Brandon Siler, but the biggest loss was coordinator Ron Rivera, who is now coaching Carolina. They brought in another 3-4 coordinator, Greg Manusky, who brought linebacker Takeo Spikes along with him from San Francisco. Spikes is 34, but still has a good year or two left in him.

The cornerbacks, Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer, played exceptionally well last year against 13 crappy quarterbacks. Safety Eric Weddle was also great, but with a new $50 million contract he might not be quite as good this year. Often-injured safety Bob Sanders joins the secondary for five or six plays until his inevitable injury.

The D-line was not flashy but extremely stout against the run last year, despite facing the league’s #1 and #2 rushing offenses two times each. Nosetackle Antonio Garay had a great 2010 season under the radar, and adding Corey Liuget to play DE is an improvement over Jacques Cesarie. There’s no way San Diego’s defense ranks #1 overall again, but with the easy schedule, they might be top 5.

It seems a little cliché and obvious, but I’m really high on the Chargers this year. They remind me of the 2009 Saints – elite quarterback who hasn’t had his big playoff run yet. Rivers may actually be better than Brees and Rodgers, but until he gets a ring nobody will acknowledge him as such. I’m thinking this is his year. Chargers go 14-2.

San Francisco 49ers:
2010 season: 6-10
My 2010 prediction was: 9-7

24th in total offense; 18th passing offense; 19th rushing offense
13th in total defense; 24th in passing defense; 6th in rushing defense

*Key stat – San Fran went 4-2 against their own division, and 2-0 against the AFC West’s crappy teams. Against actual teams, they went 0-8.

Key Additions: Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, D-Coordinator Vin Fangio, CB Carlos Rogers, WR Braylon Edwards, C Jonathan Goodwin, FS Madieu Williams, SS Donte Whitner, K David Akers, 1st round pick DE Aldon Smith, 2nd round pick QB Colin Kaepernick

Key Loses: Coach Mike Singletary, D-coordinator Greg Manusky, ILB Takeo Spikes, C Eric Heitmann, C David Baas, NT Aubrayo Franklin, OLB Manny Lawson, CB Nate Clements, QBs Troy Smith and David Carr, K Joe Nedney

Key Non-Addition-Non-Loss: QB Alex Smith, who is still with the Niners six years after being picked #1 overall. In his epic career, he’s made 54 starts, throwing 51 TDs and 53 picks for a 72.1 rating. Amazingly, last season was the best season of his career, and he was still benched for Troy Smith on three different occasions.

Main question: How soon does Kaepernick get to play?

Last year, San Fran duped everyone into believing they were real. I picked them to win the division, Mike Greenberg put them in the Super Bowl, and they began the year 0-5. It was deceiving because their assembly of skill position players (Gore, Crabtree, Davis) was impressive on paper, but they lacked a competent quarterback to run the offense. And the defense always seems better than it really is because of Patrick Willis, the best linebacker in football. But his supporting cast stinks on an annual basis, and it’ll be even worse this year.

Bringing in Harbaugh was the best thing San Fran could have done, simply because he might be able to squeeze some production from Alex Smith, at least until Kaepernick is ready to play. Harbaugh is an unquestioned offensive genius, but he’s got the rare task of coaching an inferior quarterback despite making the jump from the NCAA to the NFL.

With Frank Gore’s constant injuries and Michael Crabtree’s assholeishness, it wouldn’t shock me if San Fran struggles offensively and Kaepernick, who may be the second-fastest QB in the NFL behind Vick, gets to play earlier than expected. He’s got bust-potential written all over him, as his primary weaknesses are accuracy and ability to understand defenses. He played inferior competition in college, and consequently put up insane numbers both passing and rushing. He’s got a little bit of Tebow in him, a little bit of Vince Young, but he’s also got a cannon arm. A very unique prospect, definitely raw, but will be fun to watch when he gets his chance.

The best thing going for San Fran’s offense is continuity on the offensive line. Last year they battled with injuries and started 2 rookies. This year, 4 starters return, LT Joe Staley is healthy, and the starting center Baas was replaced by an equal player in Goodwin. If it wasn’t for the quarterback position, this could be a great offense.

Defensively, you know all about Patrick Willis, the tackling machine who single-handedly makes the Niners a top-5 defense against the run. He’s basically the LB equivalent to what Nnamdi does as a CB. But just like Nnamdi when he was on Oakland, Willis has a barebones supporting cast. Making matters much worse, 3 of his 4 best defensive teammates were lost in free agency.

San Fran couldn’t afford to retain CB Nate Clements, and lost him to the Bengals. Run-stuffing nosetackle Aubrayo Franklin was also a cap casualty, going to New Orleans. Neither of those players were adequately replaced, although CB Carlos Rogers was a decent attempt. The D-line was left in shambles, with last year’s backup, Isaac Sopoaga, the only option at nosetackle. Defensive end Justin Smith is the second best player on this defense, behind Willis of course. He’s good for 7 or 8 sacks a year, nothing special.

The OLBs lost a quality starter in Manny Lawson and replaced him with rookie Aldon Smith, who needs to adjust from the 4-3 he played in college. He’ll probably play only situational passing downs for the first several weeks of the season, leaving Ahmad Brooks and Parys Haralson as the starting OLBs. Bleak.

Willis also lost fellow ILB Takeo Spikes, and Navorro Bowman will occupy that starting position. Bowman was a third-round pick from Penn State two years ago and might be decent, but no where near as good as Spikes.

Any time a defense loses 3 of its 5 best players and their coordinator, they are in trouble. It doesn’t matter if they have Patrick Willis.

Fortunately, San Fran does get to play 6 games against their own division again. This might be a curse in disguise, because they’ll probably win too many games to have a chance at a top 5 pick. Although, if Kaepernick is the real deal, that will be okay. Other than 4 tough games against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philly and Dallas, the 49ers have a favorable schedule. I see them overachieving a little in Harbaugh’s first season, and going 7-9; Alex Smith goes 4-5 as a starter and Kaepernick goes 3-4, with his first start coming week 11, at home, against Arizona.

Seattle Seahawks:
2010 Season: 7-9
My 2010 prediction was: 7-9

28th in total offense; 19th passing offense; 31st rushing offense
27th in total defense; 27th in passing defense; 21st in rushing defense

*Key stat – It’s obvious that Seattle was the worst playoff team in NFL history; they were horrendous in every area and only won 7 games because of 4 wins against their terrible division. But the most telling stat: they were outscored by 97 points last year, making them the fifth-worst team in the NFL by point differential.

Key Additions: QB Tavaris Jackson, WR Sidney Rice, TE Zach Miller, G Robert Gallery, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, DT Alan Branch, 1st round pick OT OT James Carpenter, 3rd round pick OG John Moffitt, O-Coordinator Darrell Bevell, Offensive Line Coach Tom Cable

Key Loses: ILB Lofa Tatupa, QB Matt Hasselbeck, G Stacy Andrews, C Chris Spencer, OLB Will Herring, S Jordan Babineaux, O-Coordinator Jeremy Bates

Main question: Tavaris Jackson??? Really???

Seattle was horrendous last year, winning the dreadful NFC West by default, stumbling drunkenly into the playoffs, and then winning perhaps the luckiest and dumbest game in postseason history. The fact that they got a home game against New Orleans was an utter sham, but the Saints still should have won. It messed up the entire postseason, allowing the Bears a free pass to the NFC Championship, and a home game which could have let the undeserving Bears sneak into the Super Bowl. Thankfully, the Packers were in can’t-be-stopped mode.

Either way, Seattle has absolutely zero chance of being in the playoffs again this year, for several reasons.

Firstly, they made their team a million times worse during the summer, losing their best defender (Tatupa) and their starting QB (Hasselbeck). They brought in the calamitous Tavaris Jackson for no logical reason and made him the starting quarterback, and spent upwards of $80 million to give him a TE and WR to throw to. Great idea, except Tavaris sucks at throwing.

The offensive line is being ‘restructured,’ to put it nicely, with rookie starters at RT and RG, and a new LG who was horrible in Oakland. Their best O-lineman is LT Russell Okung, a 2nd-year player. Marshawn Lynch also stinks, as does Justin Forsett, so don't expect squat from the running game.

But perhaps the worst part of Seattle’s offseason wasn’t what they did as much as what the rest of the NFC West did instead. Arizona got a competent quarterback; San Fran got a competent coach; and St. Louis simply retained their stud-in-the-making quarterback. It’s safe to say the rest of the division improved, while Seattle got a heck of a lot worse.

Defensively, the ‘Hawks didn’t add any starting players, but lost a few. Tatupa is a major loss not only because they lost their best tackler, but also the veteran leader of the defense. He was cut simply for contractual reasons. He’s still a free agent, and will soon be forced to settle for less money than he hoped for.

Aaron Curry, taken 3rd overall in 2009, has been a disappointment so far, looking confused and being generally despised by Seattle’s faithful. The rest of the linebackers are respectable, as is the defensive line, but the secondary is horrible yet again, making no changes from last year. There’s no reason to think they’ll improve in any way defensively.

Last year, Seattle took advantage of their inept division and also beat hapless Carolina, despicably stealing a playoff berth from 10-6 Tampa and 10-6 New York. This year, their division is slightly improved (still the worst division by far, largely because of them), and they have a first-place schedule, meaning bonus games against Atlanta and Chicago, plus the AFC North and NFC East. They have a few games on the schedule that appear winnable, but remember, Tavaris Jackson is their starting quarterback. I’m calling for a 4-12 year.

Sidenote: USC’s quarterback Matt Barkley is considered a top-5 pick next year, probably the consolation prize for whoever doesn’t get Andrew Luck. Pete Carroll recruited and coached Barkley at USC. Party because I believe in conspiracy theories, but moreso because I believe in the scumminess of Pete Carroll, I honestly think Seattle is tanking this season to land Barkley. Either that, or they are managed by a bunch of complete retards.

St. Louis Rams:
2010 season: 7-9
My 2010 prediction was: 7-9

26th in total offense; 21st passing offense; 25th rushing offense
19th in total defense; 19th in passing defense; 17th in rushing defense

*Key stat – The Rams had 25 sacks in 2009, ranking 30th. Last year, in Steve Spagnuolo’s debut year as head coach, they improved to 43 sacks, ranking 7th.

Key Additions: OC Josh McDaniels, 1st round pick DE Robert Quinn, G Harvey Dahl, RB Cadillac Williams, WR Mike Sims-Walker, OLB Ben Leber, CB Al Harris, S Quintin Mikell, OLB Zach Diles, DT Justin Bannan

Key Loses: S O.J. Atogwe, WRs Mark Clayton and Laurent Robinson, O-Coordinator Pat Shurmur

Main question: Can they emerge from the burning rubble of the NFC West and become a legitimate pro football team?

Last year, the two worst coaches in the NFL were probably Wade Phillips and Josh McDaniels. This year, both are expected to be highly successful coordinators. This seems nutty, but I guess it makes sense. Look at Detroit’s former coaches: Mornhinweg and Marinelli are the two most worthless head coaches in the history of the world, and both transitioned into successful coordinators. Josh McDaniels always puts up ridiculous passing numbers no matter where he goes (granted, having Tom Brady helped), but expectations are high for Sam Bradford and the offense. I don’t trust McDaniels with all my heart … after all, he did draft Tim Tebow … but I do think Bradford will have a great season, and McDaniels will probably redeem himself.

I loved Spagnuolo as a D-Coordinator back when the Giants won the Super Bowl, and knew he would improve the Rams lethargic defense last year. But I didn’t expect him to bring them up from 29th to 19th without any improvements on the field. He got amazing production from DEs James Hall and Chris Long, and now has a super-talented DE in Robert Quinn to work with, along with huge upgrades at DT and safety. Justin Bannan is an elite run-stuffer, and joins another one in Fred Robbins. If Quinn lives up to his draft selection, the Rams could quickly have the best D-line in the NFC.

The back seven is led by James Laurinaitis, a budding star at MLB. The secondary is average, although Mikell is an upgrade at safety. The outside linebackers were adequate last year, and Leber and Diles are both slight upgrades. If the defense was a 70 out of 100 last year, it’s at least a 78 this year. They’ll rack up another 40+ sacks and torment quarterbacks while being stout against the run.

I have no idea which receivers will star, or even start, in the pass-heavy Rams offense. I sort of like Amendola in PPR leagues, and I suppose Sims-Walker will lead the team in yards. I’m not counting out Danario Alexendar either. I’ve always had an irrational love affair with the Rams, even when they went 6-42 from 2007 to 2009. This year, I think it’s finally warranted.

Oh, I forgot to mention, Harvey Dahl is an elite LG, maybe the best in the league, and he might have been the best under-the-radar acquisition of the summer. And the Rams still have that Steven Jackson guy, so they should be able to run the ball a little bit, if they want.

As much as I want to love the Rams, though, you can’t ignore the start of their treacherous schedule: 6 of the first 7 games are against Philly, Baltimore, NY Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, and New Orleans. That’s nasty. They’ll be extremely lucky to be 3-4 heading into week 8, and if they are, it’ll be good news, because the next 7 games are against crappy teams. Then they get Pittsburgh week 16, and finish the year at home against San Fran in what could be a division-deciding game.

But I have a feeling it’ll be over before that. I’ve got Arizona at 7-9, San Fran at 7-9, and Seattle at 4-12 … so St. Louis will win the division easily with a 10-6 record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Last year: 10-6
My 2010 prediction was: 4-12

19th in total offense; 17th in passing offense; 8th in rushing offense
17th in total defense; 7th in passing defense; 28th in rushing defense

*Key stat: Josh Freeman had the second best attempt/INT ratio in the league, behind only Tom Brady.

Key Addition: 1st round pick DE Adrian Clayborn, 2nd round pick DE DaQuan Bowers

Key Loses: ILB Barrett Rudd, RB Cadillac Williams

In the 2009 draft, Matt Stafford was taken first, and Josh Freeman was taken 17th overall. Stafford got a six-year deal worth $78 million, while Freeman got five years and $26 million. To date, it's not even a question which quarterback is better. If you asked all 32 GMs to start a franchise with either Stafford or Freeman as their franchise quarterback, 30 would take Tampa's QB, while the Lions would stubbornly stick with Stafford. Al Davis would probably abstain.

Stafford might have a slightly stronger arm, but Freeman is superior in every other way. While Stafford was partying, drinking, cruising the Carribbean in his yacht and maybe lifting weights a little on the side ... Freeman was organizing team practices, assemblying playbooks, working out with his receivers, and studying gamefilm. One guy cares about winning because it's his job, and the other cares about winning because it's his life.

Anyhow, I've loved Freeman unabashedly for the last 12 months or so, and watched him improve steadily through the 2010 season. Over the last 4 games, Freeman was at his best, throwing a dazzling completion percentage of 71.6 in that span. The Bucs only missed the playoffs because they share a division with the Saints and Falcons. Bad luck. They were also decimated by injuries defensively.

With Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Kellen Winslow and LeGarette Blount, Freeman has an elite arsenal of weapons at his disposal, all under the age of 28. The O-line is also young, and played pretty well last year, allowing only 30 sacks (10th fewest) and paving the way for a 4.6 YPC average, 6th best in the league. The offense retains all 11 starters this year and all their coaches, which will be huge in the lockout-shortened season.

The defense struggled at times last year, as their best player missed 14 games with a drug-related suspension. He'll rejoin the team for week 3. That's safety Tanard Jackson, by the way. Stud cornerback Aqib Talib also had plenty of trouble, nearly going to prison for assault, and missing 5 games with a hamstring injury. He'll be fine this year, at least until his trial in March, which might effectively end his career. At least Tampa gets him for this year.

Rookie DT Gerald McCoy wasn't as good as Ndamukong Suh, but he wasn't as bad as I suspected he might be. He's not the pass-rushing tsunami of pain that Suh is, but he can stuff the run just as well. Tampa's biggest weakness on defense was the pass rush, but they spent their first 2 picks on DEs who might both start immediately. DaQuan Bowers will be the steal of the draft if his knees hold up. That will definitely be a story to watch this year.

This big news this morning is that Peyton Manning will miss week 1, and reportedly the first 4-5 games of the season. Tampa gets Indy at home week 4, so they'll be crossing their fingers, hoping for an easy win. Their schedule is tough, but the two games against Carolina help, and they'll be competitive in the other 4 ultra-important division games. I really wish Detroit didn't play them week one.

Call me crazy, but I've got them winning the NFC South at 11-5.

Tennessee Titans:

With just two teams left, I'm going to kick it into warp speed.

The Titans lost their two best defenders (Tulloch and Babin) and have a new head coach, but they smarly added Hasselbeck to play while Locker gets ready. Rudd was a good move at MLB, Ayers was a good find in the 2nd round. The drama surrounding Chris Johnson's contract was obnoxious, but they did the right thing keeping their best player. Without him the offense would have been doomed. Even with him, they'll be iffy. The tackles are pretty good, but the interior of the line stinks. Kenny Britt is a good WR#1, but a headache at times. Hasselbeck is a shell of his former self. The defense is going to be one of the league's worst. The schedule is pretty kind. I'll say 5-11.

Washington Redskins:

A few months ago I predicted they would get the #1 pick in 2011, thanks to Shanahan's brainless decision to make Rex Grossman his starting quarterback. I'm sticking with that prediction, no matter how good Grossman looks in the preseason.

This entire team is a trainwreck. The RBs and WRs are terrible, the O-line is worse-than-average, and the quarterback carousel of Grossman and John Beck is just embarassing. The defense is even worse, as Shanny imposed the 3-4 scheme onto personnel who did not fit it. As a result, his two best D-linemen left town. But as usual, Daniel Snyder spent a ton of money this offseason, getting DT Barry Coefield and safety O.J. Atogwe to improve the defense. On paper, those are solid moves. But the defense isn't going to be much better than it was last year when it ranked 31st.

They've got the NFC West and Carolina/Miami/Buffalo on the docket, but I don't care. I'm still making them 2-14.

So there you have it, 32 predictions for 32 teams. Here is the recap.

Miami 2-14
Buffalo 8-8
New England 13-3
NY Jets 10-6

Baltimore 11-5
Cleveland 8-8
Cincinnati 5-11
Pittsburgh 11-5

Indy 9-7
Houston 12-4
Jacksonville 3-13
Tennessee 5-11

Denver 5-11
Kansas City 8-8
San Diego 14-2
Oakland 3-13

Philly 14-2
Dallas 9-7
NY Giants 7-9
Washington 2-14

Green Bay 14-2
Detroit 8-8
Chicago 5-11
Minnesota 8-8

Atlanta 9-7
New Orleans 10-6
Tampa 11-5
Carolina 2-14

San Fran 7-9
St. Louis 10-6
Seattle 4-12
Arizona 7-9

A few quick edits:
*Because Manning is expected to miss 4-5 games, I'm going to have to knock the Colts down to 7-9, and I'll balance that out by making Pittsburgh 12-4 and giving Carolina 3-13 instead of 2-14.

Playoff Picks:

AFC

BYE New England (13-3)
BYE San Diego (14-2)

Houston (12-4) over Baltimore (11-5)
Pittsburgh (12-4) over NY Jets (10-6)

San Diego over Pittsburgh
New England over Houston

San Diego over New England

NFC

BYE Green Bay (14-2)
BYE Philly (14-2)

New Orleans (10-6) over St. Louis (10-6)
Dallas (9-7) over Tampa (11-5)

New Orleans over Philly
Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl

New Orleans over San Diego , 35-27
Super Bowl MVP - Drew Brees, 24-33, 315 yards, 4 TDs


Season Awards:

MVP - Phillip Rivers, 35 TDs, 7 INTs, 4,900 yards, 14 wins
D-MVP - Mario Williams, 19 sacks, 8 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs
Offensive ROY - Mark Ingram, for lack of a better option; 1,100 yards and 7 TDs Defensive ROY - Tough call, but I'll go with Von Miller; 11 sacks, 95 tackles

Coach of the Year - Mike McCarthy, because the Packers go 14-2 and make it look easy

What other awards are there ...?

Comeback Player - Tony Romo
First Coach Fired - I'll say Jack Del Rio
Most Annoying Storyline: Peyton's neck

Top 5 picks in the 2012 Draft:

Washington (2-14) - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Miami (2-14) - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Jacksonville (3-13) - Quinton Couples, OLB, UNC
Oakland (3-13) - Matt Kalil, LT, USC
Carolina (3-13) - Ashlon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina

That's all I got for now. Going to start the week one picks, first game of the year in two days!!

NFL Preview - Arizona through Kansas City

Arizona Cardinals:
2010 season: 5-11
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

31st in total offense; 31st passing offense; 32nd rushing offense
29th in total defense; 23rd in passing defense; 30th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Their quarterbacks averaged a QB rating of 60.5 last year, maybe the worst mark in NFL history.

Key Additions: QB Kevin Kolb, Defensive Coordinator (DC) Ray Horton, ILB Stewart Bradley, TE Todd Heap, DE Vonnie Holliday, 1st round pick CB Patrick Peterson, 2nd round pick RB Ryan Williams

Key Losses: DC Bill Davis, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, WR Steve Breaston, NT Gabe Watson,

Main question: Can Kevin Kolb live up to the hype?

Season Preview: As you can tell from the numbers above, it was a brutal 2010 campaign for Derek Anderson and the Cardinals. They were tremendously awful in every aspect of the game, and won 5 games thanks to an NFC-West schedule. This was predictable after losing four of their five best players (Warner, Boldin, Dansby, Rolle) the previous offseason

Aside from Larry Fitzgerald, their best player in 2010 was Pro Bowl corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who is now in Philly along with the supposed ‘Dream Team.’ So that leaves Fitzgerald and Kolb to basically start from scratch, with a terrible offensive line, a defense that couldn’t stop anybody, and a running game that just saw the 2nd round pick lost for the season. Could things be any worse?

Well, the upside is super-rookie Patrick Peterson, who might be the league’s best return man instantly. Unfortunately kickoff returns don’t really exist anymore thanks to the new rule, but count on PP to score on at least one or two punts this year. I’m also expecting good things from unknown Andre Roberts, a 3rd-round rookie from last year who should be the #2 receiver behind Fitzgerald. He is tiny but super fast.

Overall, this season, and Ken Whisenhunt’s job, rest solely on Kevin Kolb’s shoulders. My prediction is a direct reflection of what I think Kolb is capable of. And I’m saying 7-9, which is to say I think Kolb will somehow manage to win 7 games with a horrendous team surrounding him. I think Fitzgerald has a Pro Bowl year, Beanie Wells has the best year of his career (which means 900 yards and 8 TD, nothing special), and Patrick Peterson could win D-ROY. The offensive line is probably the NFL’s worst, but thanks to a crap division, I’m putting major faith in Kolb and guessing 7-9.

Atlanta Falcons:
2010 season: 13-3
My 2010 prediction was: 11-5

16th in total offense; 15th passing offense; 12th rushing offense
16th in total defense; 22nd in passing defense; 10th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Matt Ryan’s QB rating was 83.7 on the road, and 99.3 at home.

Key Additions: DE Ray Edwards, 1st round pick WR Julio Jones, 4th round pick LB Akeem Dent, 5th round pick RB Jacquizz Rodgers

Key Losses: RB Jerious Norwood, G Harvey Dahl, SS Erik Coleman, DE Jamaal Anderson

Main question: Just how good can Jacquizz Rodgers be???

Just kidding. Really, the question is: what impact will Julio Jones have on this offense, and will they finally transition to a pass-oriented offense?

Last year, Atlanta took care of an easy schedule and went 8-0 against crappy teams. They beat a few good teams too, namely the Packers, Saints and Ravens, but got manhandled in the playoffs, at home, by the Packers. Rodgers went 31/36 in that game and averaged more than 10 yards per completion. Also, Michael Turner looked 100 years old, and Matt Ryan looked perplexed by an amazing Packers D.

Despite struggling against elite quarterbacks all season and ranking 22nd in passing defense, Atlanta chose to upgrade their pass rush instead of their secondary this summer. It was a calculated risk, especially bringing in a guy in Ray Edwards who isn’t completely proven. Edwards racked up the sacks on a Vikings D-line that consisted of Jared Allen and the Williams Wall. What will he do now if he faces double teams? If Atlanta can’t generate a pass rush and the secondary continues to struggle, it’ll be tough sledding to get back to 13-3.

Then there is the burden of a much harder schedule this season. Tampa is improving and New Orleans is still elite, and instead of the worthless NFC West the Falcons have to play the awesome NFC North this year, plus Philly in their bonus game. They’ll sweep Carolina and take care of Seattle with ease, but there just aren’t many easy wins on this year’s calendar.

The thing is, I love Julio Jones’s talent. He could become an elite NFL receiver, no doubt. But not this year. Michael Turner is slowing down after leading the NFL in carries two of the past three seasons, and the defense is full of question marks and very old players. Along with the much tougher schedule and the fact that Matt Ryan inexplicably struggles to win on the road, I see a major disappointment for the Falcons. I’ll go with 9-7.

Baltimore Ravens:
2010 season: 12-4
My 2010 prediction was: 13-3

22nd in total offense; 20th passing offense; 14th rushing offense
10th in total defense; 21st in passing defense; 5th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Ed Reed had 8 interceptions despite playing in only 10 games.

Key Additions: FB Vonta Leach, WR Lee Evans, C Casey Rabach, SS Bernard Pollard, 1st round pick CB Jimmy Smith, 2nd round pick WR Torrey Smith, 3rd round pick OT Jah Reid

Key Losses: FB LeRon McClain, TE Todd Heap, OT Jered Gaither, NT Kelly Gregg, CB Josh Wilson, CB Fabian Washington

Main question: Can Joe Flacco step it up?

That’s it. Can Joe Flacco step it up? Can he emerge from vague mediocrity and become a top 10 NFL quarterback? He doesn’t need to join Rivers and Rodgers in the top-5 conversation. Just become better than Romo and Schaub. That’s it. The rest of the team will take care of the rest.

Last year, I picked Baltimore to win the Super Bowl. I was looking pretty good when they led Pittsburgh by 14 in AFC Championship. But Roethlisberger pulled off his typical miracle comeback, and an otherwise great season was a flop for the Ravens.

My advice for Joe Flacco: don’t get sacked so much, make better decisions, play with some confidence, and shave the uni-brow. If he does all that, Baltimore will go 13-3 again. Instead, I’m predicting a modest 11-5.

Buffalo Bills:
2010 season: 4-12
My 2010 prediction was: 1-15

25th in total offense; 24th passing offense; 18th rushing offense
24th in total defense; 3rd in passing defense; 32nd in rushing defense

*Key stat – CJ Spiller, who the Bills selected with the #7 overall pick, only touched the ball an average of 6 times per game in his rookie season.

Key Additions: ILB Nick Barnett, WR Brad Smith, OLB Shawn Merriman, 1st round pick DT Marcell Dareus, 2nd round pick CB Aaron Williams, 3rd round pick LB Kelvin Sheppard

Key Losses: ILB Paul Posluszny, WR Lee Evans, DT Marcus Stroud, DE Aaron Maybin, S Donte Whitner

Main question: Can they overachieve again, or will they win the belated Andrew Luck sweepstakes?

Last year, Buffalo’s talent should have led to an 0-16 season, but a frisky Ryan Fitzpatrick forced them to compete week after week and they beat 4 teams, none of which were any good. The win against the Lions was particularly amazing, as Fred Jackson ran through the Lions defense like he was Thurman Thomas in Super Tecmo Bowl. The defense was impossibly bad against the run, giving up 170 yards per game and 4.8 YPC. Hence, the Bills spent their number 3 pick on a 340 pound monster who specializes in run-stuffing. Next to Pro Bowl nosetackle Kyle Williams, Dareus should see plenty of opportunities to make tackles. The linebacking crew lost their leader in Posluszny, but replaced him with the nearly-as-talent Barnett, who spent last season on IR. They also have Shawn Merriman, but he hasn’t been good since 2007 so I wouldn’t be overly excited.

The pass defense somehow ranked 3rd best last season, but I think that had something to do with teams running the ball down their throats without mercy. However, Terrence McGee and Jarius Byrd are not slouches, and will benefit from an improve D-line.

Last year, the Bills played 8 really good teams and lost 8 times. This year, the schedule changes completely. Only 3 of their opponents are what I would call ‘great teams,’ and one of those weeks New England might be resting their starters. Granted, Buffalo still lacks the talent to beat average teams on a regular basis, but for some reason I have a hunch that they make things interesting. I’ll give them 8-8.

Carolina Panthers:
2010 season: 2-14
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

32nd in total offense; 32nd passing offense; 13th rushing offense
18th in total defense; 11th in passing defense; 23rd in rushing defense

*Key stat – Their quarterbacks threw only 9 touchdowns all season.

Key Additions: Coach Ron Rivera, 1st overall pick QB Cam Newton, OC Rob Chudzinski, DC Sean McDermott, TE Greg Olsen, TE Jeremy Shockey, 3rd round pick DT Terrell McClain

Key Losses: Coach John Fox, both coordinators, QB Matt Moore, CB Richard Marshall

Main question: Cam Newton’s rookie year has to be better than Jimmy Clausen’s, right?

It’s been a busy offseason for last season’s worst team. Drafting Cam Newton was a polarizing pick, and while I hated it, some experts loved it. We’ll definitely have to wait and see how he plays. Resigning DE Charles Johnson and RB DeAngelo Williams to enormous contracts ($119 million combined over the next 6 years) was a questionable way for owner Jerry Richardson to spend his money, but at least they didn’t lose them altogether. Probably the best part of the offseason will be key players returning from injuries.

It starts with right tackle Jeff Otah, one of the league’s best run-blockers. He missed all of 2010 with a knee injury, but he’s back and playing well in the preseason. If Carolina ranked 13th in rushing without him, they’ll easily be top 10 with him. LT Jordan Gross and C Ryan Kalil are both excellent players. It’s hard to believe, but Carolina might have the best offensive line in the entire NFL. DeAngelo and Stewart were busts last year, but might have great value this year in fantasy leagues. Too bad I didn’t draft either of them in any of my 13 leagues…

The main reason for last year’s bogus 2-14 season, aside from pathetic quarterback play, was the defense trying to recover from the loss of Julius Peppers. As Oakland is about to find out, losing an A+ player on defense has serious ramifications. Charles Johnson stepped up with 11 sacks, but overall the defensive line struggled on a weekly basis. The linebackers are quite good, and the secondary isn’t terrible, but overall this defense is pretty akin to its 18th overall ranking from a year ago.

New coach Ron Rivera is a converted defensive coordinator from San Diego, and he’s joined by DC Sean McDermott who had some great success in Philly. These guys should be able to reshape Carolina’s defense into a competitive unit, but not as soon as 2011. The Panthers won only two games last year and both were against the NFC West. This year, no such luck. They play only 3 lousy teams, but at least 10 real good ones, including six brutal division games. The schedule is not kind. Newton will struggle, but at least he’ll get his feet wet, starting from week 1. My prediction is a repeat of 2-14.

Chicago Bears:
2010 season: 11-5
My 2010 prediction was: 7-9

30th in total offense; 28th passing offense; 22nd rushing offense
9th in total defense; 20th in passing defense; 2nd in rushing defense

*Key stat – Their rushing defense improved from 23rd to 2nd, thanks to Julius Peppers.

Key Additions: RB Marion Barber, WR Roy Williams, C Chris Spencer, DE Vernon Gholston, DDT Amobi Akoye, 1st round pick LT Gabi Carimi, 2nd round pick NT Stephen Paea

Key Losses: C Olin Kreutz, DT Tommie Harris, LB Hunter Hillenmeyer, SS Danieal Manning, TE Greg Olsen

Main question: Can Julius Peppers’s awesomeness overpower Jay Cutler’s suckiness and lead the Bears back to the playoffs?

Answer: No. All they did this offseason was say good-bye to excellent players and add a bunch of busts, has-beens, and never-weres. They overachieved massively last season thanks to a tremendous amount of luck and some terrible officiating (Calvin Johnson did complete the process, you assholes), and they won’t do it again against a tougher schedule. Despite having the league’s most dominant defensive end, they can’t possibly win 11 games again. It’s absolutely unfeasible. I’ll be picking against them ATS for the first 5 or 6 weeks this season until the oddsmakers realize how bad they really are.

However, on the bright side, they landed a stud with Carimi, and once Chicago starts over with a decent quarterback, maybe as soon as the 2012 Draft, they’ll have one great building block playing left tackle. But this season is going to be a painful experience for Bears fans as they slowly learn how horrible Cutler really is. I can’t believe they haven’t figured it out yet!

Prediction: 5-11. Jay Cutler is insidious.

Cincinnati Bengals:
2010 season: 4-12
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

20th in total offense; 13th passing offense; 27th rushing offense
15th in total defense; 14th in passing defense; 19th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Carson Palmer threw six INTs that were returned for TDs.

Key Additions: OC Jay Gruden, 1st round pick WR A.J. Green, 2nd round pick QB Andy Dalton, OLB Manny Lawson, CB Nate Clements, TE Bo Scaife, QB Bruce Gradkowski,

Key Losses: CB Jonathon Joseph, QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Ochocinco, WR Terrell Owens, DE Antwan Odom, G Evan Mathis, and the offensive coordinator
Main question: Is Andy Dalton any good, because if not this team is screwed.

I realize that wasn’t really a question.

But that’s pretty much the story for this team, at least for 2011. Of the other five teams that drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds, only one is starting immediately, and that’s Cam Newton. The Titans, Vikings, Jags and 49ers all have veterans QBs to play while the rookie learns the ropes. That’s standard protocol if you don’t have the #1 pick.

But all Cincy did this summer, besides losing their best defensive player, was pick up Bruce Gradkowski, who is great at covering large underdog spreads but not so great at winning games. They’ve announced that Dalton, the red-haired rookie who Ndamukong Suh body slammed last week, will start week 1 and henceforth.

I thought maybe I liked Dalton during the draft process, but then Colin Cowherd made some interesting points on the radio about QBs coming from great college teams where they were deemed a ‘winner,’ and how that hasn’t usually translated into winning in the NFL. Whether you realize it or not, TCU was a great team, and it wasn’t all because of Dalton. They had pros all over the roster. So while Dalton’s starting record in college was impressive (42-7), he needs to prove he isn’t the next Tim Couch or Danny Wuerffel. Frankly, I wasn’t remotely impressed watching him play against the Lions, but the preseason isn’t a great barometer.

A.J. Green is a Calvin-like talent, Jordan Shipley is a Wes Welker clone, and Jerome Simpson makes a great #3 receiver. Tight end Jermaine Gresham was a first-round pick last year. They have some weapons in the passing game, and West-Coast-guru Jay Gruden’s will have plenty of fun drawing up the offense. But if Dalton can’t make the throws, it doesn’t matter who plays receiver. The running game in Cincy will be largely nonexistent, and the mediocre-at-best offensive line probably won’t make Dalton’s live any easier.

Defensively, they’ll be reeling from the loss of Joseph, but still have a superb corner in Leon Hall. The linebackers are pretty stinking good too. This is one of several teams that hopes its defense can keep them competitive while the offense stinks up the joint. With the wretched NFC West on the schedule, as well as Denver and Buffalo, Cincy just might have a chance to wrestle up 7 or 8 wins in Dalton’s rookie season and maybe even make a wildcard push. But the six division games will be tough. I see them going 5-11.

Cleveland Browns:
2010 season: 5-11
My 2010 prediction was: 7-9

29th in total offense; 29th passing offense; 20th rushing offense
22nd in total defense; 18th in passing defense; 27th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Seven of their losses were by a touchdown or less.

Key Additions: Coach Pat Shurmur, DC Dick Jauron, RB Brandon Jackson, CB Dmitri Patterson, 1st round pick NT Phil Taylor, 2nd round pick DE Jabaal Sheard, 2nd round pick WR Greg Little

Key Loses: Coach Eric Mangini, both coordinators, DT Shaun Rogers, CB Eric Wright, QB Jake Delhomme, DE David Bowens, DE Matt Roth, ILB Eric Barton, S Abram Elam

Main question: How much longer are they going to wait until they get an offensive coordinator?

Maybe they won’t need one. So far in the preseason, Colt McCoy is 19/28 with 4 TDs, no INTs, 231 yards, an 8.25 YPA, and a QB rating of 132.5. Not freaking bad. And to top it off, my dad heard an interview with him on the Christian radio station that was so impressive, my dad took him in the 12th round of the fantasy draft, and then proclaimed “Remember that pick!”

I have to agree. Despite the famous clip of McCoy being thrown like a ragdoll during the Big 12 Championship game while the crowd yowls “SUUUUUH!”, he has really proved himself as an NFL-caliber quarterback. Much to my shock.

Going into this season, you have to say Colt is more NFL-ready than at least 8 or 10 NFL quarterbacks. He’s certainly a huge upgrade over the Jake Delhomme fiasco from last year. A fair comparison is Chad Pennington; good leadership and likeability, weak arm, great accuracy, dink-and-dump kind of guy. The problem, of course, is that Cleveland doesn’t have any receivers.

But the running game was awesome last year with bruising Peyton Hillis running behind All Pro Joe Thomas, who was just rewarded with a 7-year contract. It’s not very often that a guy gets a $84 million dollar contract and I say “Well deserved,” but this is one of those instances. Best thing Cleveland could have possibly done. Bravo Mike Holmgren.

This year, new coach Pay Shurmur promises to employ a RBBC style using Montario Hardesty and Brandon Jackson, relegating Hillis to a short-yardage and goal-line player. That’s probably wise, since he’s got the Madden Curse working against him. It doesn’t matter who runs behind Joe Thomas, they will find open field ahead of them.

Defensively, the Browns are switching back to the 4-3 under Dick Jauran, and should be in a messy state of transition. They have some solid players, notably cornerback Joe Haden and safety T.J. Ward, but don’t have any semblance of a pass rush. Last year they ranked 25th in sacks, and they’ll be even worse this year, likely dead last.

So if you combine an offense with no playmakers and a defense with no pass rushers, you usually have a 4-12 team, or worse. But look at Cleveland’s ridiculously easy schedule to start the season: Bengals, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, Seahawks, 49ers … If Peyton Manning’s neck injury is a real thing, Cleveland could start the season by playing seven crappy quarterbacks in a row. Amazing. So while this team is transitioning in a lot of areas, I like the young quarterback and I love the easy schedule, so I’m giving them 8-8.

Dallas Cowboys:
2010 season: 6-10
My 2010 prediction was: 12-4

7th in total offense; 6th passing offense; 16th rushing offense
23rd in total defense; 26th in passing defense; 12th in rushing defense

*Key stat – They went 1-7 under Wade Phillips, then 5-3 under Jason Garrett.

Key Additions: DC Rob Ryan, 1st round pick OT Tyron Smith, 2nd round pick ILB Bruce Carter, 3rd round pick RB DeMarco Murray, DE Kenyon Coleman

Key Loses: Coach Wade Phillips, defensive coordinator Crappy McCrap, RB Marion Barber, WR Roy Williams, OT Marc Columbo, G Leonard Davis, DE Stephen Bowen

Main question: Are they all flash and no substance, or was last year a fluke?

Perhaps the main question should be: can we really trust a team that blatantly quit on its coach just because they were sick of playing for him? This team, particularly the defense, gave no effort whatsoever in the middle part of last season, intentionally losing games so that Phillips would be fired. That proves what a crap coach he was, but it also says something about the character of the players.

But the fact that Dallas ranked 7th in offense and 6th in passing without their starting quarterback is something to take note of. Tony Romo will be fully healthy and has three elite targets – Austin, Bryant, and Witten – to throw to. The running game will finally be free of Marion Barber and can focus on stud Felix Jones, plus DeMarco Murray who is my sleeper for ROY. One of my biggest regrets is not picking him in the A League fantasy draft. To make the story short – the Dallas offense is going to dominate. They’ll be a top 5 unit overall and Romo should have a stellar fantasy season.

But the defense is another story. Sure, loudmouth Rob Ryan should bring some much-needed aggressiveness and confidence to a unit that was humiliated last year in the passing game. But they still lack talent in the secondary, and weren’t able to add any pieces during the offseason. They obviously have an incredible stud in OLB DeMarcus Ware, who is always good for 15 sacks, and a decent front 7 overall. But the secondary flat-out stinks. Especially Mike Jenkins.

Great offense, lousy defense, good coach. Average schedule. I’ll say 9-7.

Denver Broncos:
2010 season: 4-12
My 2010 prediction was: 4-12

13th in total offense; 7th passing offense; 26th rushing offense
32nd in total defense; 25th in passing defense; 31st in rushing defense

*Key stat – Brandon Lloyd led the entire NFL in receiving yards.

Key Additions: Coach John Fox, DT Ty Warren, 1st round pick OLB Von Miller, 2nd round pick FS Rahim Moore, 3rd round pick OT Orlando Franklin, RB Willis McGahee, DE Derrick Harvey, DT Brodrick Bunkley

Key Loses: Coach Josh McDaniels, WR Jabar Gaffney, DT Justin Bannan, NT Jamal Williams, S Renaldo Hill

Main question: Who the frick is playing quarterback?

In typical Josh McDaniels fashion, the 2010 Broncos threw the ball all over the field while neglecting the run and finishing dead-last in defense. As I predicted back in June of 2010, McDaniels was fired. In part for his indefensibly stupid decision to take Tim Tebow in the first round. In part for his obsession with Bill Belichick. But mostly for being an a-hole and a crappy coach. The Broncos started 6-0 with him and ended 6-20.

The transition to John Fox, who went 2-14 with the Panthers, is a curious one. It means Denver is changing from a pass-happy team to a run-heavy offense, and it also entails a switch from the 3-4 to the 4-3. Needless to say, Bronco fans shouldn’t buy their playoff tickets just yet.

But just because it’s a season of massive change doesn’t mean we should expect another horrible season. The defense will be megatons better when DE Elvis Dumervil returns from the injury that kept him out for all of 2010, and OLB Von Miller is a frontrunner for D-ROY. The linebackers as a group are solid, and the pass rush will certainly be better than last year. But they will still struggle to stop the pass and stop the run, which is not a great combination. Ty Warren was a nice pickup, but not enough.

The reason the Broncos have dominated sports radio and ESPN coverage though is the quarterback controversy between Neckbeard and Tebow. As everyone knows, Orton is the better player, but Tebow is the better Christian. So who will start? Well, back in May, it was Orton. Then it was Tebow, because Orton was getting traded to Miami. Then the trade didn’t work. Then Tebow looked godawful in training camp. Now Orton is the man, and Brady Stinking Quinn is slotted as #2 on the depth chart. Poor Tebow.

Kudos to Fox and GM John Elway for having the brains to play Orton and give the team a chance to win. Sure, you could argue that Tebow makes more sense because A) you can find out if he’s worth investing in, and B) if he stinks, you get a lottery pick and a new franchise quarterback. But that’s faulty logic. What if Tebow stinks but you end up 4-12 again and pick 4th and Luck and Barkley are both gone? What if Barkley breaks his neck this year? What if Luck decides he really wants to be a professional architect instead? No, it’s foolish to lose intentionally just on the chance that you might be able to draft a 20 year old kid. Especially in the less-than-awesome AFC West, you have to play Orton and see what happens. Who knows, maybe they’ll win 8 or 9 games and end up in the playoffs. Anything can happen.

But what will probably happen is … the offense will struggle as Fox tries to implement a run-first scheme, Moreno and McGahee will split lots of carries and neither will be impressive, and Orton will manage the game decently but not super great. Brandon Lloyd’s receiving numbers will drop from 1,448 to about 700. And Tebow will play late in the season, once the Broncos are out of playoff contention.

Denver’s first two games are at home against Oakland and Cincy. They might start out 2-0, but they’ll end up 5-11.

DETROIT LIONS:
2010 season: 6-10
My 2010 prediction was: 5-11

17th in total offense; 12th passing offense; 23rd rushing offense
21st in total defense; 16th in passing defense; 24th in rushing defense

*Key stat – They won their last four games.

Key Additions: MLB Stephen Tulloch, 1st round pick DT Nick Fairley, 2nd round pick WR Titus Young, 2nd round pick RB Mikel LeShoure (out for the year), OLB Justin Durant, CB Eric Wright, S Erick Coleman, RBs Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison

Key Loses: OLB Julian Peterson, OLB Jordan Dizon, WR Bryant Johnson, DE Turk McBride

Main question: CAN STAFFORD STAY HEALTHY??????

Just kidding. If you don’t get the joke, read the post from about a week ago.

No, the main question for the Lions is: Is Stafford any good?

He can stay healthy all he wants, but if he sucks, we’re screwed. And so far in his short and injury-plagued career, he has sucked. Sorry if the truth hurts. Look at his numbers. QB rating is the best way to assess overall play, and his QB rating is lower than Joey Harrington’s career rating. That’s just the facts. Stafford has shown "flashes of brilliance", as people like to say, but more often its flashes of decency which are hyperboled into brilliance. He’s also shown many flashes of inaccuracy, slow decision making, and what I would describe as a mild disinterest in competition. But those flashes aren't usually talked about.

I can’t blame the guy for getting hurt, especially in the Bears game when Julius Peppers snuck up behind him and destroyed his arm. He could have avoided the injury in the Jets game, but whatever. It’s done, he’s healthy now, and I’m ready to move on. Another injury would be detrimental, but not because our backup QB is bad. Only because it would prevent Stafford’s career from ever having a chance to succeed. We can make the playoffs with Stafford or with Shaun Hill, but the fact is, we need contributions from the other 21 starters.

On offense, we’ve got a lot to be excited about. A superstar receiver, a bunch of solid weapons to take pressure off Calvin, a rookie WR with upside, a really fast running back who can catch, backup running backs who aren’t terrible, an average offensive line that has continuity, a tight end who can block exceptionally well, an above-average fullback, and of course Stafford’s strong arm. We’ve also got some fun wrinkles like Stefan Logan and Aaron Brown, speedy guys who can line up in different spots. Then there are some weaknesses: the unfortunate injury to LeShoure, finding a RB who can run between the tackles effectively, Calvin’s route-running (good, but could be better), Pettigrew’s speed (slowest TE in the universe), Stafford’s accuracy, Stafford’s ability to go through his reads and check-down at appropriate times, Jeff Backus getting beat by speed rushers, Gosder Cherilus committing false start penalties, and of course injury concerns for our starting QB, RB and WR.

On defense, we have a superstar DT playing on one of the league’s best defensive lines, two highly underrated players in Corey Williams and Cliff Avril who make Suh look good while he makes them look good, a veteran leader who still has something left in the tank (KVB), a rookie DT with a lot of upside, really good depth on the D-line, a brand new middle linebacker who is an elite tackler, two decent but not awesome outside linebackers, a hard-hitting safety with dreads and an attitude, an up-and-coming safety in Amari Spievey who is having a great training camp, and a pair of slightly-below-average-but-not-as-bad-as-last-year cornerbacks.

Then, the glass-half-empty view: Fairley only played one year in college and had discouraging ‘character’ concerns so he might be a tremendously overhyped bust, plus he hurt his foot and hasn’t played preseason yet, Justin Durant is completely unproven and untested, VandenBosch is 32 years old and slowing down, Suh won’t stop bodyslamming QBs and might become the new James Harrison, Delmas still stinks in coverage, the corners really aren’t great in pass coverage either, and Eric Wright is hobbling around with a leg injury.

So it depends. You can jump on the hype-wagon and call them a playoff team. It’s tempting. Or you can look at them realistically, understanding that Stafford is basically a third-year rookie, and knowing that the secondary still stinks, no matter how badly we all want to pretend like it's fixed.

So I’m plagiarizing Tom Killer Kowalski, the all-knowing Lions insider, who said “I think the Lions are gonna be really good this year. They’re gonna be fun to watch, they’re going to be in every game, and they’re going to finish 8-8.”

Tom’s main reason was the difficult schedule, particularly the NFC North. I’m not as worried about the Bears and Vikings, and I’m pretty confident the Packers will be resting starters by week 17. I think we’ll go 4-2 against the division. It’s the other 10 games I’m worried about, particularly the 5 road games. We outmatch Oakland and Denver, but it would be typical of Detroit to blow those games on the road. If we lose those cupcake games, kiss the playoffs goodbye, because I don’t see us beating San Diego or New Orleans or Atlanta. Dallas is going to be tough, and so will KC and Tampa. Our schedule is loaded with teams that we could beat, but not teams that we necessarily should beat.

It’s gonna be a great year. I hope the Lions smash my 8-8 prediction to oblivion.

Green Bay Packers:
2010 season: 10-6, plus 4-0 in the playoffs
My 2010 prediction was: 13-3

9th in total offense; 5th passing offense; 24th rushing offense
5th in total defense; 5th in passing defense; 18th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Rodgers’s passer rating in the playoffs was 109.8, with 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 68.2% CP, and 8.3 YPA. And that was against playoff teams.

Key Additions: 1st round pick OT Derek Sherrod, 2nd round pick WR Randall Cobb, plus TE JerMichael Finley and RB Ryan Grant return from injury

Key Loses: ILB Nick Barnett, DE Cullen Jenkins, RB Brandon Jackson, OT Mark Tauscher, S Atari Bigby

Main question: From top to bottom, is this the most stacked team of the past decade?

The Packers are a team comprised of all strengths and no weaknesses. It’s barely fair. If there wasn’t a salary cap, I would say they somehow cheated. It’s actually amazing they didn’t win more than 10 games last season, but they were hampered by injuries and a tough schedule. Two of their loses were games that Rodgers missed, two were in overtime against inferior teams, and two were road games against Atlanta and New England. This year, the schedule is quite a bit friendlier, and the team is much healthier. 16-0 should be their goal.

Last year, I picked Rodgers to win the MVP. I didn’t specify that what I actually meant was Super Bowl MVP. He easily established himself as a top 5 quarterback last year, and while you can argue all day long where he belongs in the Brady-Brees-Manning discussion, as long as you put him ahead of Roethlisberger, I’m happy. He’s a frontrunner for MVP again this year and a first-round fantasy pick.

With one superstar receiver, three quality backup receivers, and a superstar tight end, the Green Bay offense is a machine. The offensive line, formerly a weakness, is now a strength, anchored by stud tackles Bulaga and Clifton, and mega-upside rookie Derek Sherrod playing inside at left guard opposite stud RG Josh Sitton. They don’t even need a running game, which is good, because they don’t really have one. It’ll be interesting to see whether Ryan Grant wins his job back or James Starks keeps it. They’ll probably share. It won’t matter.

What’s scary is that the defense might be better than the offense. Despite losing Jenkins and Barnett, they’ll still be an elite unit thanks to Clay Matthews, B.J. Raji, Tramond Williams, Charles Woodson, Desmond Bishop, A.J. Hawke, Nick Collins… all seven of those guys are top ten players at their positions, if not higher.

What else is there to say? Green Bay has the offense to roll with New England the defense to shut them down. They could completely obliterate the rest of the league this year. Then again, they might suffer from Super Bowl Hangover and play sloppy and entitled. That’s their only challenge this year – to avoid complacency. I think McCarthy will have them ready. 14-2 is my call.

Houston Texans:
2010 season: 6-10
My 2010 prediction was: 11-5

3rd in total offense; 4th passing offense; 7th rushing offense
30th in total defense; 32nd in passing defense; 13th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Houston gave up 4,280 passing yards – just 240 yards short of breaking the record for record for worst pass defense ever.

Key Additions: CB Jonathan Joseph, DC Wade Phillips, S Danieal Manning, FB Lawrence Vickers, 1st round pick DE J.J. Watt, 2nd round pick OLB Brooks Reed, 2nd round pick CB Brandon Harris

Key Loses: FB Vonta Leach, DT Amobi Okoye, FS Eugene Wilson, S Bernard Pollard, OLB Zach Diles, and their inept defensive coordinator

Main question: Is this the year they finally make the playoffs??

Yes. I’m going all in on the Texans. I absolutely loved their offseason.

Wade Phillips was a catastrophe in Dallas, but everyone knows he wasn’t supposed to be a head coach. As a D-coordinator, he’ll adopt the 3-4, which will bring Mario Williams out to OLB, which will pay immediate dividends. Opposite Williams will likely be rookie Brooks Reed, who I’ve identified as a Clay Matthews clone and think was the steal of the draft. Watt and Harris were excellent draft picks, Manning and Joseph were excellent signings, and the 30th ranked defense now has at least 5 new starters who are major upgrades, plus a new system which should work better. They might not be a top 10 unit this year, but they’ll skyrocket out of the cellar and into the teens.

The offense really didn’t need to be touched. And with one small exception, it stayed intact. That exception is Vonta Leach, the league’s best fullback and the guy who paved the way for Arian Foster last year. It’s fair to have concerns about Foster’s upcoming fantasy season, and to love Ray Rice now that Leach is in Baltimore, I’m not dropping the Houston offense from the top 5. Their O-line was rock solid last year and retains all five starters; above-average tight end Owen Daniels is healthy, Jacoby Jones is healthy, and Foster will be eager to prove that he’s not a one-year wonder. Then there’s Andre Johnson, who is simply the only receiver I would rather have than Calvin Johnson.

It’s a lot of pressure on Matt Schaub to be honest. He routinely puts up huge stats and tends to falter late in games. He’s been described as anti-clutch. I don’t necessarily think this is the year everything clicks and he becomes a mistake-free cerebral quarterback, but I don’t think his mistakes will matter as much because the defense won’t be as dreadful.

Joseph is a top-tier cornerback, but he wasn’t the only positive addition to this defense. It was just a brilliant offseason. And they’ve got a gloriously easy schedule, especially if Peyton Manning struggles week one from the neck injury. I’ll jump out on a limb and give the Texans 12-4.

Indianapolis Colts:
2010 season: 10-6
My 2010 prediction was: 12-4

4th in total offense; 1st passing offense; 29th rushing offense
20th in total defense; 13th in passing defense; 25th in rushing defense

*Key stat – Peyton Manning attempted a career-high 679 passes last year, just 12 attempts short of the NFL record held by Drew Bledsoe.

Key Additions: 1st round pick OT Anthony Castonzo, DT Tommie Harris, ILB Ernie Sims, 2nd round pick OT Ben Ijalana, 4th round pick RB Delone Carter,

Key Loses: OLB Clint Session, S Bob Sanders, CB Kelvin Hayden, RB Mike Hart

Main question: Is Peyton Manning’s neck injury a legitimate concern?

Probably not. As Tony Dungy said a few weeks ago, “Unless Peyton is dead, he’ll be playing week one.” I know that’s true. But the question is, how effectively will he play? Will there be any setback? My guess is no. But there’s no way of knowing until he plays.

Last year Manning threw a surprising number of INTs (17), but part of that was because he threw so stinking many attempts, and part of it had to do with injuries to his receivers. Dallas Clark missed almost the entire season, Austin Collie had two concussions, and Garcon and Wayne both struggled with drops all year. To make matters worse, Joseph Addai missed most of the year, and the running game was worthless.

To improve the offensive line, Indy drafted a potential stud in Castonzo and a potential quality starter in Ijalana. Both guys should start immediately, and with studs C Jeff Saturday and RG Mike Pollak also on the line, they’ll be improved. The running game still won’t exist, but the receivers should all be healthy, and if Peyton’s at full strength, this offense will again lead the NFL in passing.

Defensively, the Colts focus on the pass rush and neglect all other positions. Freeney and Mathis did their thing, combining for 21 sacks, but the rest of the defense was either injured or missing tackles. They still try to implement Tony Dungy’s Tampa 2 style, which means they’re smaller and faster, giving up running plays but not big passing plays. It sorta works, but you need good corners and an interior pass rush. Indy has neither. But since they like linebackers who stink at tackling, it’s a good thing they brought in Ernie Sims.

I actually have a terrible feeling about this season for Indianapolis. The passing offense will continue to dominate, but the defense just seems to keep getting worse, and with no running game to lean on, and Peyton nearing 36 years in age, and the neck injury, and the lifeless coach, and all the injury-concerns with the receivers … I just don’t like it. The schedule is tougher than last year, with the NFC South and AFC North plus New England and KC. It might help Indy if Tennessee and Jacksonville stink as I suspect they will, but that’s only 4 wins. Aside from Carolina and the 2 Ohio teams, there are no easy wins. I’m only seeing a 9-7 season for Peyton and crew, which will keep them out of the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Jacksonville Jaguars:
2010 season: 8-8
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

15th in total offense; 27th passing offense; 3rd rushing offense
28th in total defense; 28th in passing defense; 22nd in rushing defense

*Key stat – David Garrard’s QB rating was 90.8, ranking 13th overall. But if you subtract the week 7 game against Dallas in which the Cowboys completely forfeited and gave Garrard the best game of his career, he actually had a QB rating of 85.1, ranking 18th.

Key Additions: ILB Paul Posluszny, OLB Clint Session, 1st round pick QB Blaine Gabbert, SS Dawan Landry

Key Loses: WR Mike Sims-Walker, OT Jordan Black, DE Derrick Harvey, OLB Justin Durant, ILB Kirk Morrison, OG Vince Manuwai

Main question: How soon until Gabbert starts?

When the Jags traded up in the 1st round to get Blaine Gabbert, it was obvious that the David Garrard Era was over, and not a moment too soon. Here’s a pop quiz for you? How old is David Garrard? And another question: how many years has he been with the Jaguars?

If I wasn’t sitting at a computer, I would have guessed ‘29’ and ‘6.’ But the real answers: ‘33’ and ‘9.’ The dude has played 86 games, throwing 89 TDs and 75 picks, and put together one of the longest stretches of incessant mediocrity in quarterback history. Every season seems like it’ll be his last, but then he pulls a 5 TD game out of his butt and keeps the job for another year. By picking Gabbert 10th overall, they’ve mercifully ended Garrard’s run.

Of course, Garrard gets to play this season while Gabbert holds a clipboard, and Garrard has the motivation to play well, hoping to earn a starting gig elsewhere in 2012. I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays well enough to keep Blaine on the bench until November, when it’s clear the Jaguars aren’t playoff-bound. It might take a while, Jags’ fans might get impatien…. wait, did I say “Jags fans”? Oops, never mind. Anyway …

The real concern for the future Los Angeles football team is the health of Maurice Jones-Drew. His knees have been messed up since midway through last season, and he’s not getting better. I don’t know when he’ll play, but I do think that Rashard Jennings is a capable backup who will play great in MJD’s stead.

As far as receivers, Jacksonville has Mike Thomas, Jason Hill … pretty much nothing. Tight end Marcedes Lewis is their best offensive player if MJD is ailing, and he just got paid big money, so the motivation isn’t there. The offensive line is considerably below-average, and will have either 2 or 3 new starters this year protecting Blavid Gabbard. It’s ugly.

Fortunately, the Jags retooled their defense this year with linebackers Clint Session and Paul Posluszny, and underrated safety Dawan Landry. These three guys were signed for contracts worth more than $99 million over the next 6 years. Big money for guys with injury-history and non-superstar status. But at least it’ll keep the Jaguars somewhat competitive, as the defense should keep them from being blown out repeatedly.

But as helpful as linebackers can be, the two most important elements for any NFL defense are elite pass-rushers and lockdown corners. Jacksonville has neither. Aaron Kampman has done nothing but tear his ACL in consecutive seasons, and horse-like Rashean Mathis is past his prime. It seems Jacksonville is trying to rebuild on offense, but stay competitive on defense. It’s a mess.

Jack del Rio could be the first coach fired in 2011, because the Jags have mildly high expectations and should massively underachieve. Their schedule is brutal – only 2 easy games all year, and 10 really tough ones. I imagine them going 2-8 with Garrard and 1-5 with Gabbert, for a dreadful 3-13 season. Then they’ll spend the #2 overall pick on a pass rusher, possibly Quinton Coples from UNC.

Kansas City Chiefs:
2010 season: 10-6
My 2010 prediction was: 6-10

12th in total offense; 30th passing offense; 1st rushing offense
14th in total defense; 17th in passing defense; 14th in rushing defense

*Key stat – The teams on KC’s schedule last year combined to go 106-150. The only team they played with a winning record was 9-7 San Diego. This year’s opponents combined to go 133-123.

Key Additions: WR Steve Breaston, FB LeRon McClain, OT Jared Gaither, NT Kelly Gregg, 1st round pick WR Jonathan Baldwin, 2nd round pick C Rodney Hudson, 3rd round pick OLB Justin Houston (was a first-round prospect but tested positive for drugs and plummeted)

Key Loses: Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weis, LG Brian Waters, OLB Mike Vrabel, NT Ron Edwards, WR Chris Chambers

Main question: Did they overachieve last year thanks to an incredibly easy schedule, or are they actually a legit 10-6 team?

Answer: they overachieved last year, thanks to an incredibly easy schedule, but they may actually be on their way to being a legit 10-6 team. They only played one really good team last year, and that was Baltimore in the playoffs, who beat them 30-7. This year, they get New England and Green Bay, the league’s two best teams, plus Pittsburgh, the Jets, the rest of the NFC North, the Colts, and the Chargers twice. Not nearly as easy.

To make matters worse, KC chose to part ways with their best offensive lineman, left guard Brian Waters, and their offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis. Weis was the man responsible for keeping Matt Cassel competent last year and masking his awfulness. This year we’ll see a much more confused Cassel revert to his terrible 2009 self. Under Weis, Cassel’s CP% rose from 55% to 58% and his YPA went up from 5.9 to 6.9. Losing Weis alone would cause those numbers to drop significantly, but facing five of the scariest defensive players in the world - Polamalu, Revis, Matthews, Peppers, and Suh - will make things even worse. If there was an anti-fantasy league, I’d take Matt Cassel in the first round.

But speaking of fantasy football, the Chiefs can rely on Barry-esque running back Jamaal Charles to make amazing plays and make defenders look silly. Despite ranking 14th in carries, Charles was 2nd in rushing yards, with an INSANE 6.4 yards per carry. There’s no way he pulls off that number again, especially if his number of carries jumps into the 300s, but if JC runs for a 5.2 YPC on 300 carries he will exceed 1,500 rushing yards, and that’s not unreasonable. He’s a stud.

The receivers are just okay, with Dwayne Bowe always being a little overhyped and rookie Jonathan Baldwin having a lousy training camp. Steve Breaston was a nice player 2 years ago, but his knee injuries are still not resolved. Tight end Tony Moeaki had a nice rookie season, but he’s not exactly the kind of guy who will lead you to the playoffs.

But as down as I am on Cassel, I’m excited about the young Chiefs defense, led by rising stars Eric Berry and Tamba Hali. The cornerbacks, Carr and Flowers, are really solid, and Gregg will help patch a leaky run defense. Romeo Crennel returns to coordinate the defense, and with at least 10 questionable quarterbacks on the schedule it should be another successful season. Of course, last year they didn’t see guys like Rodgers and Brady, so temper your expectations. They'll seem dominant week 9 against Denver, and then completely clueless the next week.

Overall, it’s bound to be a down year for Kansas City, and I think they’ll lose the division to a much-improved San Diego. Winning the AFC West earned them schedule bonus games against New England and Pittsburgh, which is really unfortunate. Losing a stud lineman and stud coordinator is going to kill the offense, and I almost want to predict a disastorous 4-12 season. But because of Jamaal Charles and the better-than-you-think defense, plus the 4 easy division games against Denver and Oakland, I’ll go with a moderately satisfying 8-8 season.

Bonus prediction: Matt Cassel is benched during week 12, which looks like a certain third straight loss, and 5th round rookie Ricky Stanzi (the guy from Iowa who famously beat MSU on this awesome play) enters the game, comes back to beat the Bears, and then starts the rest of the season while Cassel sits out with a phantom injury. Stanzi plays well enough to warrant consideration for the 2012 starting job, especially after Cassel’s QB rating is in the mid-70s and the fans hate him. This might be a little too specific. But I feel strongly about this possibility.

Rest to come later...
(sorry if there are a lot of typos, I didn't have time to edit)