Thoughts on Super Bowl and some other stuff

Sorry I've been slacking lately and haven't written anything on here. To be honest, I'm not really that excited about the Super Bowl. I have this dreadful feeling that the Giants are going to pull off another upset and Eli is going to considered a first ballot Hall of Famer by the end of February. This morning, John Clayton said that if not for Brees and Rodgers, Eli would have been the league's MVP this year. Really??? With a 9-7 record and the 7th best QB rating in the league? With fewer yards, TDs, and fewer wins than Stafford? Not to mention Tom Brady?

I'm okay with saying Eli was a top 8 MVP candidate this year, but clearly there are at least 4 quarterbacks who had better seasons, and Calvin, McCoy and Ray Rice belong above Eli in MVP voting as well. What Clayton said was basically like someone on Fox News saying, "If you don't count Romney, Gingrich and Santorum, Rick Perry could be the next President."

You can't just discount Rodgers and Brees. That makes no sense. Whatever.

By the way, I am officially on the Ron Paul bandwagon, even though the GOP nomination is between Frankenstein and Susan Boyle. (aka Romney and Gingrich)

Speaking of people who look like Newt Gingrich, have you seen this? Haunting.

Anyway, here's the Super Bowl pick.

Patriots (15-3) @ Giants (12-7)

Line: NE by 3

Patriots have won 10 straight; Giants have won 5 in a row. But the Giants road to the championship (Atlanta, @Green Bay, @San Fran) was a billion times more difficult than New England's (BYE, BYE, home against Baltimore who missed a 32 yard field goal which would have forced overtime). Gronkowski has a high ankle sprain, the Giants D is completely healthy and playing better than they've played in years, and Brady is coming off one of his worst playoff games ever. Oh, and the Pats secondary looks as bad as ever, giving up their standard 300+ yards to a mediocre quarterback last week.

I see New England coming out fast, with a smart gameplan of quick passes and screens designed to counter the Giants' vaunted pass rush. Giving Belichick two weeks to prepare usually leads to some high-scoring first halves. Brady should get his groove on early, and the Pats will be up 24-13 at half.

But Coughlin has a knack for adjustments and New England's defense has a knack for collapses, so I expect the Giants to come back, slowly but surely, until there's 4:00 left in the 4th quarter and Eli leads the 90 yard drive to tie the game at 34. Then, Brady drives down, stalls in the red zone, and the Pats kick a field goal with too much time left. Up 3 with 1:15 left, New England kicks off, and Victor Cruz does the rest, as the Giants easily march down the field for 7 and leave Brady with just 20 seconds and trailing 37-41. The hailmary falls incomplete, Eli collects his second title in Peyton's house, and I throw up in my mouth.

Giants 41-37.

In other news, the Tigers got Prince Fielder, Peyton Manning's career in Indy is over, and I seem to be the only person who cares about the NBA this season. Both of my fantasy basketball teams are kicking butt.

I'm considering my annual 50 Best Players in the NBA list, but it's still a work in progress.

Go Timberwolves.

Round 3 Playoff Picks

5-3 so far in the playoffs for both ATS and straight-up picks, making me 136-128-10 on the entire season, and 178-86 straight-up, with three games to go. This weekend's games are both really tricky.

Ravens @ Patriots

Predicted Line: NE by 6.5

Actual Line: NE by 7

When in serious doubt about the outcome of a game, I usually take the points. I don't think enough people are seeing Baltimore as a legit title contender. Sure, Joe Flacco looks like Sylar from Heroes but with the worst mustache in human history . And true, he completed less than 20 passes per game this season. But let's be honest about the Baltimore offense: it revolves around Ray Rice, an elite fullback, and a really competent offensive line. When Flacco does throw, it's not dink and dump; he takes deep shots and he usually completes one or two of them per game. When you're going against an almost historically bad secondary, it stands to reason that Flacco should find Torrey Smith for 40+ yards at least once, maybe twice. New England couldn't stop anybody late this season - not Rex Grossman, not Matt Moore, not even Dan Orlovsky, who put up 353 yards and completed 30 of 37 passes.

Last week, Tebow was an abomination. He had 3 completions in the first half, and he's the only starting QB in the NFL who could be that bad against New England's defense. Flacco could throw left-handed and do better than Tebow did. And I'm not bashing Tebow ... it's just nice to have a decent throwing arm when you're playing against coverage guys who can't cover.

I think Flacco and Rice and Smith help Baltimore keep pace with Brady, who will make his share of plays but won't be having a scrimmage like last week. I expect Baltimore to create 2 or 3 turnovers and keep the game close. But I am taking the Pats straight up, mainly because they're at home. I actually think Baltimore is the better team. But whatever, let's go Pats 28-26.

Giants @ 49ers

Predicted Line: SF by 3

Actual Line: SF by 2.5

Don't really feel great about either team, but I'll take the home squad. Niners by 4. I doubt the Harbaughs will go 0-2 this week, and I really don't see New York's defense stopping Frank Gore very well. Plus, Patrick Willis might be at the stage in his career where he single-handedly wills his teams to playoff victories. San Fran 24-20.

That's it ... go Lions.

Also, Victor Martinez is out for the season, so the Tigers season is over before it started. Who's going to hit behind Cabrera? Boesch? Avila? Anybody have any good lineup suggestions? My best shot looks like this:

1. A Jackson CF

2. D Young DH

3. M Cabrera 1B

4. B Boesch LF

5. A Avila C

6. J Peralta SS

7. A Dirks RF

8. R Santiago 2B

9. D Kelly 3B

That's pretty ugly without Martinez. Unless Detroit makes a big move in the next two months, we aren't going to win the Central. And if Inge is starting at third in the opener, I'll personally guarantee that I won't watch a single game until July.

Go lions...

Playoffs Round 2, Plus a Look Ahead to April

Went 2-2 ATS and 3-1 straight up, missing badly on the Tebow game, which broke the record for Most Tweets Per Second. Literally. What is there to say about Tebow that hasn't already been said. Nothing. I'm so eternally glad that Pittsburgh is out.

Last year, my 3 least favorite teams were in the final 4 (PIT, CHI, NYJ). This year, I actually like all of the final 8 teams a decent amount, though the order of who I am cheering for goes like this:
1. New England
2. Denver
3. New Orleans
4. Green Bay
5. Houston
6. Baltimore
7. Giants
8. San Fran

I still love my preseason prediction of Saints over Packers in the NFC Championship. Nobody will see them coming as everyone overemphasizes the cold outdoor weather. I don't think Drew Brees will care. As for San Diego, they can all go suck a bunch of lemons.

Saints @ 49ers
Predicted Line: NO by 3.5
Actual Line: NO by 3.5

I'm taking the points. San Fran won't make it easy for Brees. Their defense is a million times better than Detroit's. I'll say Saints 30-27.

Broncos @ Patriots
Predicted Line: NE by 9.5
Actual Line: NE by 13.5

Pats have lost their first playoff game two years in a row. There's not a chance in hell that that happens again. Not against Tim Tebow.

This is a dreadful matchup for Denver. New England's D is actually decent against the run (Wilfork, Mayo), but can't stop the pass or rush the passer. Tebow might have lit up the Steelers with 10 completions for 300+ yards, but still, it was just 10 completions. That doesn't usually work. Not when the other quarterback is arguably The Greatest of All Time.

Patriots 41-23.

I should probably say something about Josh McDaniels, the former Pats coordinator who took the Denver job, drafted Tebow, got fired, took a job with the Rams, coordinated the worst offense in the NFL and possibly crushed Sam Bradford's career, and then quit to reunite with Brady and Belichick in the middle of the playoffs, right in time to face his former team and his former 1st round draft pick. What a coward. I would hate his guts if I were a Rams fan. I pretty much hate his guts anyway. He better not get one single ounce of credit for Brady's 5 TD game.

Texans @ Ravens
Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5
Actual Line: BAL 7.5

Both teams are looking to run the ball, control the clock, and play awesome defense. So this line has to be a little bit too high. Andre Johnson is supposedly fully healthy and Baltimore doesn't have anyone who can cover him. But I'll take the Ravens 24-20.

Giants @ Packers
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 7.5

How about Packers 41-13.

... More to come later I guess ...

*Quick note on the NBA.

Ever since Joe Dumars traded Chauncey away and plunged the Pistons head-first into a septic tank, I have been searching for a new team to root for. I briefly entertained flings with the Bucks and Grizzlies and the Thunder, and early this season I was pretty excited about the Clippers. But I believe I have settled with a new love interest, and it may surprise you.

The Minnesota Timberwolves.

Yeah, they haven't been good since KG left 4 years ago, and yeah they were never really good before that. But I love Kevin Love (the hero of my fantasy team), I love rookie Derrick Williams, and I love Ricky Rubio. The supporting cast has all sorts of great characters - JJ Barea, Luke Ridnour, Michael Beasely, assistant coach Bill Laimbeer, and of course, Darko!

So that's my note about the NBA. Of course, my main routing interest is still the same: anybody but the Heat. Also, don't look now but with a new coach and a new GM the Pistons might be able to rebuild 2 or 3 years from now. They have two decent building blocks with Knight and Monroe. If they can keep those guys, keep Jerebko, and draft a mega-stud player to build around, they can compete in a few years. So basically, we need a top 3 pick and we need to not screw the pick up.

Back to the NFL.

The Lions are officially slotted as pick #23 on the Draft board, which means I've already begun the analysis process. Last year at pick #14 it was significantly later than we are used to picking. But #23 is crazy. I don't know how to function in a world where Detroit doesn't get a top 20 prospect. All this fantastic talent is leaving the silly world of college football and entering the NFL, and Detroit doesn't get any of it. Oh the woes of being a playoff team.

Making things worse for Detroit, two of the top QB prospects (Matt Barkley and Landry Jones) decided to stay in school for another year, presumably so they can battle for the right to be taken #1 in 2013. That means two less QBs will be taken in the top 20, which means two less OT/DE/LB/CBs will be available.

Of course, Mayhew and Lewand and Schwartz have made it clear that Detroit doesn't draft for need. Perhaps that's why Nick Fairley was the least effective rookie taken in the first round of 2011. Because he was coming off the freaking bench. Maybe this year the Lions will address any one of the 6 glaring positions of need (the four I mentioned, plus center and safety) with their first round pick, but based on history, we're more likely to take a backup QB or another freaking defensive tackle.

I'm starting to chart out a mock draft for April, but with still a lot left to be determined, I'm not getting ahead of myself. We know the Colts are taking Luck #1, and it will be very interesting to see if Peyton gets traded or retains the starting job. I'd like to see Indy keep him, but he's owed something like $28 million next year, so trading him is certainly sensible.

Teams that definitely need a new quarterback include the Redskins and Seahawks, but teams that aren't completely sold on their current starter will be a much longer list: Jets, Browns, Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars, Cardinals, Rams, Vikings, Bucs, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, 49ers, Titans ...

Really, less than half of the league (15 teams by my count) are happy with their current starting quarterback. Those teams are, in descending order, the Saints, Packers, Pats, Lions, Panthers, Steelers, Giants, Chargers, Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles, Texans, Falcons, Ravens, and Bears. And you could argue that 4 or 5 of those guys are replaceable if the right situation (namely, Peyton) was available.

So while only a few teams are in the Peyton market, probably upwards of 12 teams are in the market for the 2nd quarterback in the NFL Draft, Robert Griffin III. A lot of pundits think Griffin will be taken 2nd overall, not by the Rams, but by the highest bidder. The Browns (4th pick) stand to land Griffin if he drops, but with teams jockeying for position to move ahead of Cleveland, Cleveland might just want to move ahead of themselves. They have the most picks to make an offer that St. Louis can't deny.

However, the #2 prospect after Andrew Luck is a once-in-a-decade left tackle, Matt Kalil from USC. Kalil is considered a clone of Jake Long or Joe Thomas, and will probably be one of the best LTs in the NFL within one season. The Rams would be smart to ignore trade offers and take Kalil, which would give the Vikings (pick 3) the chance to hold an auction and amass picks.

That's what I see happening right now. I don't think St. Louis wants to trade out of pick #2 and lose the chance at Kalil. But there isn't a clear #3 prospect for the Vikings to take ... CB Claiborne from LSU or WR Blackmon from OSU are more of mid-first round pick type of talent. The Vikings very well might trade out of the 3 spot to the highest bidder, and end up addressing needs later in the draft, probably getting a future 1st rounder as well.

With the new rules of the CBA, teams actually won't be afraid to trade up into the top 5. Paying a top 5 pick is no longer a death sentence; it's actually the best way to rebuild. So expect the Robert Griffin bonanza to be crazy and teams to offer an arm, leg and a kidney to obtain his services. Whether he'll succeed in the NFL or not is a different story. I'm not convinced. Of course that's what I said about Cam Newton....

Anyway, my hope is the Lions will play it smart, address a need on the O-line or the defense, not do anything cute (like the stupid Pettigrew pick a few years ago), and get their asses back in the playoffs next year. Before the Draft, the key is going to be re-signing key players, namely Avril and Tulloch. We might not be able to afford both guys, so Tulloch is more vital in my mind than Avril, because we have no depth at linebacker.

That's all for now.

peace

Playoff Picks - Round 1

These are going to be insanely quick .... sorry in advance ...

Bengals (9-7) @ Texans (10-6)
Line: HOU by 2.5

Foster and the Texans D are the difference. Houston 23-16.

Lions (10-6) @ Saints (13-3)
Line: NO by 10.5

I've gotta at least take the points. I honestly believe the Lions have a chance. But I will say Saints 41-37.

Falcons (10-6) @ Giants (9-7)
Line: NYG by 3

Matt Ryan outside, no thanks. Giants 27-14.

Steelers (12-4) @ Broncos (8-8)
Line: PIT by 9

This line is fifteen points too low. Steelers 35-0. Sorry Tebow.


GO LIONS.