The bottom 10 teams and my 2012 prediction:
32
Raiders 2-14
31
Seahawks 5-11
30
Jaguars 4-12
29
Browns 7-9
28
Dolphins 5-11
27
Rams 7-9
26
Vikings 7-9
25
Redskins 4-12
24
Colts 6-10
23 Titans 5-11
22. Tampa Bay
Last year: 4-12
I’m realizing that by the time I finish these power
rankings, it’s going to be November, so I’m gonna rush through some of the
boring ones.
The defense was absolutely horrid last year,
allowing league-worst marks of 156 rushing yards and 31 points per game. A huge
part of that can be accredited to a nagging bicep injury to stud DT Gerald McCoy;
the Bucs were 3-3 with McCoy and 1-9 without him.
But the problems were mainly at linebacker and
cornerback, where Tampa Alabama
Barron joins
37-year old Ronde Barber in the secondary, in what will be Barber’s first year
at the safety position, after 208 consecutive starts at cornerback. The corners
will be Wright and criminal Aqib Talib, who was supposed to be going to jail
this summer for assault with a deadly weapon, until all charges were dropped in
mid-June due to insufficient evidence, which probably means Talib paid his way
out of jail or threatened to kill some dude's brother. Whatever. Despite being a despicable human being, Talib is a very
talented CB, with 17 INTs in 4 years.
I really
like new head coach Greg Schiano, who brings his no-nonsense persona to a team
in need of an overhaul. He proved this by exiling twice-suspended Tanard
Jackson and epic moron Kellen Winslow, removing two of the biggest locker room
poisons from a team that completely quit last season during their ten game
losing streak. Heck, how can you not be excited about hiring a coach who less than six
months ago was victorious in the vaunted Pinstripe Bowl?
But the Bucs are in an unlucky position, with Drew Brees,
Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton standing in their way in the NFC South. Even if
Freeman ameliorates considerably in his fourth season, he’ll still be the
fourth best QB in this division. And with the NFC East also on the schedule,
8-8 is probably a best-case scenario. They do get the luxury of the AFC West,
and bonus games against St. Louis and Minnesota
But it’s always risky when free agents join your team solely because you offered
them the most money. I'm worried that VJack and Nicks won't stay healthy, and it might be related to their massive paychecks. With a new coach, a retooled roster, and a tough
division, I’m thinking the Bucs wind up 6-10, losing their last 5 games after a 6-5 start.
21. Arizona
Last year – 8-8
After an unsurprising 1-6 start, the Cardinals roared to
life over the last two months of the season, going 7-2 with wins against San
Fran, Dallas and Philly, and a close loss at Baltimore
Defensive coordinator Ray Horton was able to take an underachieving unit and improve them from 29th to 18th without
really adding anybody. During the 1-6 stretch, the Cards allowed an average of 383 yards per game, which would have ranked them 29th. But during the 7-2
finish, they gave up a stingy 325 yards per game, good enough to have ranked in
the top ten.
The key was the linebacker position, where Daryl
Washington was an under-the-radar star, and 4th round rookie Sam Acho had 7
sacks from the 4-3 OLB position, which is outstanding. The defensive line had a
couple of borderline studs with DT Darnell Dockett (deserving Pro Bowler) and
DE Calais Campbell (8 sacks, 3 blocked field goals). The secondary wasn’t
great, ranking 17th against the pass, but Patrick Peterson is on his way
towards being a stud, along with being the game’s best punt returner.
So the defense is improving. Not sure the same can be said for the offense.
Last year, the Cards' offensive line was considered the league’s worst
by just about everybody. Strangely, they did nothing to improve it, other than
extending the contract of lousy Levi Brown. It was quite shocking when the
Cards took WR Michael Floyd (a potential diva) with the #13 pick instead of
Riley Reiff. I’m not complaining though.
The running game was decent at times last year, with Beanie
Wells fighting through several injuries and managing a 4.3 YPC. Rookie Ryan Williams (2011 2nd
rounder) missed the entire season with a ruptured tendon; he'll be back this year, and give Arizona
The biggest problem last year was at quarterback, where Kevin Kolb didn't even come close to living up to his 5-year, $63 million deal. In fact, it was John Skelton, the
pride of Fordham College
The Cardinals didn’t do a whole lot this offseason, other than drafting Floyd and pairing him with Larry Fitzgerald. Best case scenario: this is genius and gives them the best receiving tandem in the league. Worst case: it's a total flop, Floyd is a diva and a jerk, and Fitz ends up demanding a trade in 2014. At
this point, keeping Fitz happy is Arizona's biggest priority, so the
Floyd pick had some merit, despite the immense risk.
They didn’t have a second round pick because … oh
yeah … they traded that pick to Philly. For Kevin Kolb. Oops.
Fortunately, they still play in the NFC West, so at least
4 games are highly winnable. That’s the good news. The bad news is, last year
they didn’t face a single top five quarterback, and this year they face three,
including Rodgers and Brady on the road. They also get the rest of the
NFC North and AFC East (ouch) and Atlanta St. Louis
20. Kansas City
Last year: 7-9
2011 couldn’t have started worse for the Chiefs. In losing
their first two games by a combined 89-10, they also lost Eric Berry and Jamaal
Charles, arguably their two best players, for the season. They also lost TE
Tony Moeaki, a key piece of the offense. Giving up on the season
by week 3 would have been defensible.
Impressively, they bounced back from a rough start and won
4 straight games, granted against inferior foes. Then they lost 4 straight,
including a disgraceful 31-3 home loss against Miami Green Bay
The Chiefs went 4-5 with Matt Cassel, then 1-3 with lefty
Tyler Palko, with the only win coming against Caleb Hanie and the depleted
Bears, so that shouldn't count. Then they picked up Kyle Orton (now with the Cowboys if you haven't heard) who finished the year with a 2-1 record, including the shocking win against GB.
During the
offseason, KC made a push for Peyton Manning, just like everybody else, but fell short. Now, quarterback
remains the only position of major weakness for this roster. If Matt Cassel can
“manage the game” and limit mistakes, this could be a very successful team.
The offensive line, which was already solid, got a huge boost
when Texans RT Eric Winston signed for 4 years. He’s one of the league’s best
run blockers. With Charles and Moeaki returning from injury, the running game
could be dynamic; Peyton Hillis was brought in as the power complement to
Charles, and since he didn't get the big contract he wanted, maybe he'll be super motivated. KC also brought in Kevin Boss from the Giants, one of the best run-blocking tight ends.
The receivers are below average, but Dwayne Bowe is
respectable, and Jonathan Baldwin has upside. Bowe is currently holding out,
which is laughable considering he’s only had more than5 TDs once in his 5 year
career. He’s way too inconsistent to warrant a huge deal, but KC will probably
fold because they have little else at receiver, except for Steve Breaston and flashy Dexter McCluster.
The defense is extremely solid, especially if Berry Berry
Two of the linebackers are outstanding – OLB Tamba Hali
(26 sacks the last 2 years) and ILB Derrick Johnson (first team All Pro last
year). These two studs make the other linebackers, OLB Justin Houston and ILB
Jovan Belcher, look better than they really are. The D line is a trio of early 1st round picks – DE Tyson Jackson (#3 pick in 2009), DE Glenn Doresy (#5 pick in
2008), and now nosetackle Dontari Poe (#11 pick in 2012).
Jackson and Dorsey have underperformed compared to where
they were selected, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been busts, as many people
assume. They’ve done nothing in the pass rush (a combined 6 sacks in 5
seasons), but both guys are solid against the run, and they open up space for
Hali to get after the QB.
Poe is intriguing; he was physically dominant at Memphis , and had an unbelievable Combine, but Memphis
Overall, it’s probably at least a B+ defense, though I have my doubts about Routt being able to replace Carr. Routt is solid in creating
turnovers and big plays, but he also led all CBs in penalties last year, and
gave up 8 scores. He’s a risk-taker, and if opposing QBs hesitate to throw
towards Flowers, which is likely, Routt could really suffer.
I’m also not that thrilled about three key players (Berry
Nonetheless, a lot of people are pegging the Chiefs as dark-horse Super
Bowl contenders, saying that they are just a QB away from having the best
roster in football. As you can tell by the #20 ranking, I don’t agree. Saying
“they would be a great team if they had a better QB” is like saying “I would be
a millionaire if I had another $900,000 dollars.”
I understand that there’s a ton of talent on the roster,
especially on defense. But because of Cassel ,
this just isn’t a team I would be afraid to play. They won’t score enough
points to put teams away early, and if it’s close late, you can probably count on
Cassel screwing up. Also, the schedule is
really tough, with the AFC North and NFC South, not to mention two games apiece
against Rivers and Peyton. I’ll say 7-9
again.
19. San Diego
Last year: 8-8
Like a jackass, I predicted the Chargers would go 14-2
last year, and Rivers would win the MVP. Instead, his QB rating dropped from
102 to 88, and the Chargers lost 6 straight games in the middle of the season
on their way to 8-8. From my estimation, no team underperformed more than San Diego
There were no excuses ... they faced an easy schedule ... their division was pitiful ... and they didn't have the injuries and holdouts they had in 2010, when four key offensive
players (Gates, VJack, Matthews, and Marcus McNeil) combined to miss 26 games. In 2010, Rivers led the NFL in YPA throwing to Legedu Naanee and Seji Ajirotutu. In 2011, with a full healthy offense, Rivers went into the tank.
Not only did Rivers throw an uncharacteristic 20 picks, he also saw his YPA – which had led the league for
three straight years at 8.39, 8.75, and 8.71 – drop to a paltry 7.95, barely
cracking the top ten in a category he typically owns. You’ve got to wonder if
Darren Sproles was actually the catalyst to the passing offense all along.
Now, with his best deep-threat fleeing to Tampa
If there’s a chance for the Bolts’ offense to remain one
of the league’s best, it’ll be Ryan Matthews. The former #12 pick spent much of
his rookie season injured, and took a back seat to Mike Tolbert at times. But in limited action, he has accumulated quality stats in 2 years (1,800 yards, 13 TDs, 72
catches, 4.7 YPC). Now, with Tolbert joining a crammed backfield in Carolina
The Chargers’ defense has long been overrated, ever since
the obnoxious days of Shawn Merriman. Their #1 rank in yards allowed in 2010
was one of the flukiest things that ever happened, and a clear result of an
insanely easy schedule. They proved this by ranking 16th last year, and 20th
against the run.
The defense’s biggest issue was on third downs, giving up
a 49.2% conversion rate, which not only ranked worst in the NFL, but was a full
2% worse than any other defense had allowed in over a decade. YIKES.
The reason for the Bolts’ historically bad third-down
defense was the cornerbacks, particularly Quintin Jammer. In the 66 times he was thrown at, QBs put up an average rating of 129.9, by far the highest mark
allowed by any CB. Not surprisingly, the
lowest QB rating allowed belonged to Darrelle Revis with a stunning 45.6. One
more fun fact: no CB allowed more receptions than Detroit ’s
Eric Wright (75 catches), whom you may remember as the guy Tampa
Back to the Chargers.
While the corners were dreadful, the safeties, especially Eric Weddle, were
solid, and linebackers Shaun Phillips and Takeo Spikes did a good job against
the run. The primary problem was the pass rush. They ranked 24th in sacks with
just 32, and only one player, Antwan Barnes, had more than 4. Nobody expects
Barnes to get 11 sacks again, so they had to significantly upgrade the pass rush
this offseason. They did that with the steal of the 2012 Draft - Melvin
Ingram at pick 18.
Once again, this team will only go as far as Phillip
Rivers will carry them, and with a weakened supporting cast, it’s tough to see
him improving on his lackluster 2011. They have a tough schedule outside of
their division (NFC South, AFC North, Jets, Titans), and now have to deal with
Peyton Manning twice. If they
don’t make the playoffs, this will be Norv Turner’s last year. I see them going 9-7, but falling short in the AFC West.
18. Chicago Bears ...
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