Now that the QBs, WRs and TEs are ranked, the hard work begins.
Take a look at the top running backs from last year's ESPN rankings.
Hillis ahead of Forte? DeAngelo ahead of Matthews? Moreno ahead of anyone? What's McFadden doing back at 12, and how is Lynch back at 30? Look at some of the useless names in the 30s and 40s ... Joseph Addai, Tim Hightower, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Jerome Harrison ... all of them ranked ahead of eventual studs Darren Sproles, DeMarco Murray, and Ben Tate. What an embarrassment.
Then factor in major injuries to the players ranked at 1, 3, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 21, 23, 26 ... and the useless season by #2 (Chris Johnson) ... and you've got a holy unspectacular batch of fantasy running backs.
So, it stands to reason that when looking at this year's rankings, half of the RBs in the top 25 will either get hurt or completely suck. Kind of a defeating feeling. But it's also useful because it allows me to rank the RBs however I want and ignore everyone else who claims to be an expert. Because, based on previous years, the experts obviously don't know what they're doing. Here are my RB rankings ...
1. Ray Rice, Ravens
Big contract and downgraded offensive line, but I've got Rice ranked #1 among RBs because I feel he's the safest starting RB with the lowest likelihood of a major injury. He may not be as explosive as others, but he's a lock for about 50 receiving yards per game, and he gets all the goal-line carries. Doesn't have any competition for carries.
2. Arian Foster, Texans
Same story as Rice - big contract and a weakened O-line. Plus he's got to share carries with super backup Ben Tate. I don't think Foster finishes the year as a top 5 RB in terms of yards and TDs, but as far as being a safe pick, I would take him above the next few guys.
3. Chris Johnson, Titans
I'm becoming more and more convinced that CJ will have a huge bounce back season. I contemplated putting him above Foster, and maybe even #1. But then I looked at his 2011 game log again. 13 yards against Atlanta? 18 yards against Houston? 21 yards against Denver? What the heck? He could be the ultimate steal this year, or he could prove to be a complete bum.
4. Ryan Matthews, Chargers
In the past few weeks, I've had a change of heart with Matthews. Everything I've read says Matthews is completely healthy, and Norv Turner wants to make him a "workhorse" back. Last time Norv did something like that, LT was the best fantasy football player in the world. Gotta like the precedent.
5. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
He's ranked too low (9th by ESPN) simply because he's still under-the-radar. No way he should be ranked behind Marshawn Lynch.
6. Matt Forte, Bears
After years of trying to earn a big contract, Forte finally got one. 17 million guaranteed. Now, will his ambition be gone? Will Brandon Marshall's arrival eat into Forte's production? Also, will Michael Bush vulture the goal-line carries? Legitimate concerns, but you gotta like his consistency, easy schedule and 50 catches per season.
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jags
Everybody is so sure that MJD will "break down" this year. I don't necessarily think he'll get hurt. I just think he plays alongside one of the worst starting QBs ever, and won't get many chances to score. Let's be honest, he only won the rushing title last year because of about 6 injuries. Oh, I almost forgot to mention ... of the 4 RBs looking for big contracts, MJD was the only one who got nothing. Holdouts are super risky.
8. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
New big contract, star O-lineman hurt for the year, and just really seems due for an injury. I'm not sure exactly why, but I don't trust him at all.
9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Love him as an RB2. Hate him as a RB1. Quite a bit of risk with his health. But with the revamped O-line and newly acquired blocking tight ends, he could easily run for 1,800 yards if his explosion is what it was in 2010. Not many TDs though.
10. Darren McFadden, Raiders
Same as Charles. I wouldn't take him as a RB1 because of the risk ... but as an RB2, he's great. Has the potential to be the most productive running back of anybody. Just needs to stay healthy.
11. Trent Richardson, Browns
Forget about the fact that he's a rookie on a terrible team. He has the potential to make them a good team.
12. Fred Jackson, Bills
As with all the guys returning from injury ... RB2 yes, RB1, no.
13. Frank Gore, 49ers
The word is they want to platoon him with Jacobs/Hunter/James, so he's more of a safe RB2 but without a ton of upside.
14. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
Will put up lots of solid 70-80 yard games and should be the goal-line back now that Jacobs is gone. Nothing spectacular, but he continues to be drafted in the 4th/5th round which makes no sense.
15. Steven Jackson, Rams
16. Ben Tate, Texans
17. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
18. Michael Turner, Falcons
19. Jahvid Best, Lions
20. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
21. Darren Sproles, Saints
22. Isaac Redman, Steelers
23. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
24. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
25. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
26. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
27. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
28. Doug Martin, Bucs
29. Shonn Greene, Jets
30. Mark Ingram, Saints
31. James Starks, Packers
32. Donald Brown, Colts
33. Reggie Bush, Dolphins
34. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
35. CJ Spiller, Bills
... And so on with all the sleepers and handcuffs ...
Go Lions.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Friday, July 27, 2012
Fantasy Rankings - Tight Ends
Tight end is probably the hardest position to evaluate this fantasy season. On one side of the spectrum, you've got Gronk and Graham putting up 1,300 yards and 13+ TDs and breaking Mike Ditka's records. Gronk was the number 2 receiver last year behind only Megatron, and Graham was 6th. So when those guys are getting picked in the top 15, it really does make sense.
On the other side, you've got guys like Fred Davis and Jermaine Gresham, who put up similar stats to WR David Nelson from Buffalo - 600 yards, 5 TDs. Those guys will be starting in 12 team leagues every week. While David Nelson, the 55th receiver last year, won't be close to any starting lineups unless the matchup is pristine.
So the difficulty is not ranking the tight ends. That's pretty simple. It's knowing where to take them. For the first time ever in fantasy football, tight ends are going in the first round. (Gronk's ADP is 12, Graham's is 15). Then there's a gap of about three rounds before the next tier of tight ends (5 guys), and then another 20 to 30 picks until the final tier. So unless you're in the camp that says take Gronk or Graham early (I'm not), when should you make the move? 4th round? 5th? 6th? Or wait until the 10th and essentially resign yourself to playing the matchup all year?
I'm never a big fan of using more than 1 roster spot on tight ends, but I also don't want to take a second-tier guy too early. It's a precise timing thing. It really comes down to understanding the guys your drafting with, and trying to beat the rush. Also, if you're picking 1st or 12th overall, you probably want to start the run on tight ends, because during the 23 picks in between your selections, the entire second-tier could be gone. But if you're somewhere near the middle of the order, be reactive instead of proactive.
Basically, if you don't land a guy in that second-tier (Hernandez, Finley, Davis, Witten, Gates), you're going to be pretty miserable every time your guy has 2 catches for 35 yards.
Here are my TE rankings:
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
Tom Brady's favorite target last year had 90 receptions, a league-best 17 TDs, and a stunning 14.7 yards-per-catch. Personally, I don't think there's any chance he replicates those numbers. Remember, Randy Moss dropped from 23 TDs to 11. With Welker leading the team in targets, Brandon Lloyd taking over as the downfield threat (presumably), and Aaron Hernandez continuing to emerge, Gronk is destined for a drop in numbers. Which means, probably still 1,100 yards and 12 TDs ... but I consider him a late 2nd round pick, not a top 10 pick.
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints
Graham was actually targeted on 25 more passes than Gronk was, but not nearly as many near the end zone. He was essentially Drew Brees's possession receiver, and will reprise that role this year. He's a better pure receiver than Marques Colston and is firmly established as Brees's favorite weapon. If I were going to take a tight end in the first two rounds, I'd lean towards Graham, especially in a PPR league. I'm thinking 1,400 yards and 9 TDs.
3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
To prove just how big the gap is between Gronk/Graham and the next tier of tight ends, my #3 guy is also a Patriot. For a few reasons: 1) Bill Belichick pioneered this whole "two tight end" obsession, and will continue to utilize it; 2) Hernandez was 7th in TE targets despite sharing the load with Gronk; 3) Tom Brady is going to dominate like it's 2007; and 4) The Pats aren't afraid to run up the score.
I actually think Hernandez will have more yards than Gronkowski. Half as many TDs though.
4. Vernon Davis, 49ers
I've always loved Davis, ever since he did this. Probably the #1 receiver for a pretty good team, albeit with a less than average quarterback.
5. JerMichael Finley, Packers
Everybody's sleeper last season, he disappointed with only 760 yards and 8 TDs, with 3 of those TDs coming in one game. Due to the unexpected emergence of Jordy Nelson, Finley ranked only 11th among tight ends in targets, and 3rd among Packers. Still, I'll rank him 5th because he's more of a freakish athlete than any other tight end, and thus has insane upside.
6. Jason Witten, Cowboys
Doesn't get any more reliable than Witten, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years, and always catches 80+ balls for 900+ yards. The TDs numbers are inconsistent, usually around 5 per year. But you can count on him for 50-60 yards every week. It helps that him and Tony Romo are BFFs.
7. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
As an Antonio Gates owner for the past two years, I'm fine with omitting Gates from the second tier. I wouldn't touch him. He's been a "game-time decision" for the past 24 months. If you think he'll play, he won't, and vice versa. Don't waste your time. Instead, consider Pettigrew the top of tier 3. Even if Megatron miraculously breaks the Curse, Pettigrew will still see Witten-like numbers, though not as many yards, thanks to the fact that Pettigrew is the slowest human being on earth.
8. Antonio Gates, Chargers
Well, I suppose IF he is healthy, he'll be the best receiver Phillip Rivers has. But I'll let somebody else gamble on his knees.
9. Jacob Tamme, Broncos
Upside: Tamme could be the new Dallas Clark, catching 10 TDs with 1,000 yards for a resurgent Peyton Manning. Downside: he could be a 4th round pick from the U of Kentucky who does absolutely nothing. Personally, I like him, but I'm not totally sold.
10. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
A spitting image of super slow Pettigrew, even down to the detail that AJ Green is a young Calvin. The difference is that Dalton is no Stafford.
11. Coby Fleener, Colts
Lots of other guys being taken ahead of Fleener, but I like the upside. In case you slept through the NFL Draft, I'll remind you - Fleener was Andrew Luck's tight end at Stanford, and now they're together in Indy. More upside than the other TEs you can get here.
12. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
I thought Gonzo was done last year, but he went for 875 yards and 7 TDs, ranking 4th among tight ends in fantasy points. There's a reason he's the best tight end of all time. But at age 36, you've gotta wonder if he has any speed left. I don't want to risk it.
13. Fred Davis, Redskins
Lots of people like him as he replaces Chris Cooley and becomes the full time starter. It's true that RG3 has no one else to throw to, and it's also true that athletically he is elite like Finley and Vernon Davis. But I just don't trust punks from USC. Also, not a big believer in RG3, as you know.
14. Jared Cook, Titans
Another popular sleeper, often going in that second tier. Cook is almost exactly the same size and speed as JerMichael Finley, and went nuts at the end of 2011 with 330 yards in the last 3 games. But there are concerns about maturity and intelligence. Also, the Titans stink. If you're a big believer in Jake Locker, this is your guy. If Kenny Britt gets suspended for his DUI (probably will), I guess we can slide Cook up to 10th, especially if the suspension is 4 games. Keep an eye on that.
15. Brent Celek, Eagles
Michael Vick doesn't like him, but when Vick gets hurt Celek becomes productive.
16. Owen Daniels, Texans
Can't seem to stay healthy, but due to the lack of a #2 receiver in Houston, Daniels is sometimes productive.
17. Greg Olsen, Panthers
A decent sleeper.
18. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
Another solid sleeper. A better keeper than sleeper.
19. Ed Dickson, Ravens
I could see Baltimore moving to a Patriots-style offense, and Dickson might become very useful.
20. Dustin Keller, Jets
They don't have much going on at receiver. Keller has some speed.
Others ...
Heath Miller, Steelers - A reliable 30 yards per game.
Martellus Bennett, Giants - The only TE they have right now.
Kellen Winslow, Seahawks - An unparalleled moron.
Zach Miller, Seahawks - A colossal bust in 2011.
Lance Kendricks, Rams - 2nd round pick last year.
Anthony Fasano, Dolphins - Will pick up some of targets left by Brandon Marshall.
Dennis Pitta, Ravens - 4 TDs in the last 8 games last year.
Dallas Clark, Bucs - The ultimate gamble. Will he even make the team?
Tony Moeaki, Chiefs - Coming off a torn ACL. Probably won't be much use.
Todd Heap, Cardinals - Did you know Todd Heap was on the Cardinals? Me neither.
Go Lions.
On the other side, you've got guys like Fred Davis and Jermaine Gresham, who put up similar stats to WR David Nelson from Buffalo - 600 yards, 5 TDs. Those guys will be starting in 12 team leagues every week. While David Nelson, the 55th receiver last year, won't be close to any starting lineups unless the matchup is pristine.
So the difficulty is not ranking the tight ends. That's pretty simple. It's knowing where to take them. For the first time ever in fantasy football, tight ends are going in the first round. (Gronk's ADP is 12, Graham's is 15). Then there's a gap of about three rounds before the next tier of tight ends (5 guys), and then another 20 to 30 picks until the final tier. So unless you're in the camp that says take Gronk or Graham early (I'm not), when should you make the move? 4th round? 5th? 6th? Or wait until the 10th and essentially resign yourself to playing the matchup all year?
I'm never a big fan of using more than 1 roster spot on tight ends, but I also don't want to take a second-tier guy too early. It's a precise timing thing. It really comes down to understanding the guys your drafting with, and trying to beat the rush. Also, if you're picking 1st or 12th overall, you probably want to start the run on tight ends, because during the 23 picks in between your selections, the entire second-tier could be gone. But if you're somewhere near the middle of the order, be reactive instead of proactive.
Basically, if you don't land a guy in that second-tier (Hernandez, Finley, Davis, Witten, Gates), you're going to be pretty miserable every time your guy has 2 catches for 35 yards.
Here are my TE rankings:
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
Tom Brady's favorite target last year had 90 receptions, a league-best 17 TDs, and a stunning 14.7 yards-per-catch. Personally, I don't think there's any chance he replicates those numbers. Remember, Randy Moss dropped from 23 TDs to 11. With Welker leading the team in targets, Brandon Lloyd taking over as the downfield threat (presumably), and Aaron Hernandez continuing to emerge, Gronk is destined for a drop in numbers. Which means, probably still 1,100 yards and 12 TDs ... but I consider him a late 2nd round pick, not a top 10 pick.
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints
Graham was actually targeted on 25 more passes than Gronk was, but not nearly as many near the end zone. He was essentially Drew Brees's possession receiver, and will reprise that role this year. He's a better pure receiver than Marques Colston and is firmly established as Brees's favorite weapon. If I were going to take a tight end in the first two rounds, I'd lean towards Graham, especially in a PPR league. I'm thinking 1,400 yards and 9 TDs.
3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
To prove just how big the gap is between Gronk/Graham and the next tier of tight ends, my #3 guy is also a Patriot. For a few reasons: 1) Bill Belichick pioneered this whole "two tight end" obsession, and will continue to utilize it; 2) Hernandez was 7th in TE targets despite sharing the load with Gronk; 3) Tom Brady is going to dominate like it's 2007; and 4) The Pats aren't afraid to run up the score.
I actually think Hernandez will have more yards than Gronkowski. Half as many TDs though.
4. Vernon Davis, 49ers
I've always loved Davis, ever since he did this. Probably the #1 receiver for a pretty good team, albeit with a less than average quarterback.
5. JerMichael Finley, Packers
Everybody's sleeper last season, he disappointed with only 760 yards and 8 TDs, with 3 of those TDs coming in one game. Due to the unexpected emergence of Jordy Nelson, Finley ranked only 11th among tight ends in targets, and 3rd among Packers. Still, I'll rank him 5th because he's more of a freakish athlete than any other tight end, and thus has insane upside.
6. Jason Witten, Cowboys
Doesn't get any more reliable than Witten, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years, and always catches 80+ balls for 900+ yards. The TDs numbers are inconsistent, usually around 5 per year. But you can count on him for 50-60 yards every week. It helps that him and Tony Romo are BFFs.
7. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
As an Antonio Gates owner for the past two years, I'm fine with omitting Gates from the second tier. I wouldn't touch him. He's been a "game-time decision" for the past 24 months. If you think he'll play, he won't, and vice versa. Don't waste your time. Instead, consider Pettigrew the top of tier 3. Even if Megatron miraculously breaks the Curse, Pettigrew will still see Witten-like numbers, though not as many yards, thanks to the fact that Pettigrew is the slowest human being on earth.
8. Antonio Gates, Chargers
Well, I suppose IF he is healthy, he'll be the best receiver Phillip Rivers has. But I'll let somebody else gamble on his knees.
9. Jacob Tamme, Broncos
Upside: Tamme could be the new Dallas Clark, catching 10 TDs with 1,000 yards for a resurgent Peyton Manning. Downside: he could be a 4th round pick from the U of Kentucky who does absolutely nothing. Personally, I like him, but I'm not totally sold.
10. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
A spitting image of super slow Pettigrew, even down to the detail that AJ Green is a young Calvin. The difference is that Dalton is no Stafford.
11. Coby Fleener, Colts
Lots of other guys being taken ahead of Fleener, but I like the upside. In case you slept through the NFL Draft, I'll remind you - Fleener was Andrew Luck's tight end at Stanford, and now they're together in Indy. More upside than the other TEs you can get here.
12. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
I thought Gonzo was done last year, but he went for 875 yards and 7 TDs, ranking 4th among tight ends in fantasy points. There's a reason he's the best tight end of all time. But at age 36, you've gotta wonder if he has any speed left. I don't want to risk it.
13. Fred Davis, Redskins
Lots of people like him as he replaces Chris Cooley and becomes the full time starter. It's true that RG3 has no one else to throw to, and it's also true that athletically he is elite like Finley and Vernon Davis. But I just don't trust punks from USC. Also, not a big believer in RG3, as you know.
14. Jared Cook, Titans
Another popular sleeper, often going in that second tier. Cook is almost exactly the same size and speed as JerMichael Finley, and went nuts at the end of 2011 with 330 yards in the last 3 games. But there are concerns about maturity and intelligence. Also, the Titans stink. If you're a big believer in Jake Locker, this is your guy. If Kenny Britt gets suspended for his DUI (probably will), I guess we can slide Cook up to 10th, especially if the suspension is 4 games. Keep an eye on that.
15. Brent Celek, Eagles
Michael Vick doesn't like him, but when Vick gets hurt Celek becomes productive.
16. Owen Daniels, Texans
Can't seem to stay healthy, but due to the lack of a #2 receiver in Houston, Daniels is sometimes productive.
17. Greg Olsen, Panthers
A decent sleeper.
18. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
Another solid sleeper. A better keeper than sleeper.
19. Ed Dickson, Ravens
I could see Baltimore moving to a Patriots-style offense, and Dickson might become very useful.
20. Dustin Keller, Jets
They don't have much going on at receiver. Keller has some speed.
Others ...
Heath Miller, Steelers - A reliable 30 yards per game.
Martellus Bennett, Giants - The only TE they have right now.
Kellen Winslow, Seahawks - An unparalleled moron.
Zach Miller, Seahawks - A colossal bust in 2011.
Lance Kendricks, Rams - 2nd round pick last year.
Anthony Fasano, Dolphins - Will pick up some of targets left by Brandon Marshall.
Dennis Pitta, Ravens - 4 TDs in the last 8 games last year.
Dallas Clark, Bucs - The ultimate gamble. Will he even make the team?
Tony Moeaki, Chiefs - Coming off a torn ACL. Probably won't be much use.
Todd Heap, Cardinals - Did you know Todd Heap was on the Cardinals? Me neither.
Go Lions.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
A Few Mock Drafts ...
Fantasy football season is in full swing!
I know this because
1. There are unintelligible lists of scribbled paper all over my nightstand. Some are written on the back of electric bills. I feel like Ben Linus. (All those lisssssts.)
2. I just got done rankings the WRs, QBs, and I'm working on the TEs.
3. And most of all, because I have completed 5 mock drafts.
Here are my results:
League 1 - Morgan Mosquitoes
Standard scoring. Ten teams. 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex. Nothing unusual. Picked 1st overall.
Took Aaron Rodgers happily and confidently.
The next 18 picks featured a shockingly low number of RBs (only 8), along with 5 QBs, 4 WRs and 1 Gronk.
With the 20th pick I was able to land my #9 player overall, Matt Forte. At 21 I paired Rodgers with Greg Jennings. Too many eggs in one basket, or an unbeatable force?
The next 18 picks included only one QB (Eli; Brady, Brees, Vick, Cam and Stafford went early; Rivers and Romo still available at 40) and one TE (Graham) and 9 WRs along with 7 RBs. Some great bargains (Nicks 38 overall, Charles 34 overall) and some reaches (Welker at 23, Cruz at 26). I went with Fred Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw. I neglected the WR position here for three reasons: 1) Great RB value, 2) With all the injuries to RBs, I wanted to get three reliable starters, and 3) I have a gut feeling I can wait til 60 and get either Demaryius Thomas or Percy Harvin. Also, I love Bradshaw and Fred, so no apologies.
Lots of terrible picks in rounds 5 and 6. Roy Helu, Reggie Bush, Shonn Greene, Antonio Gates ... also Rivers goes 54, Romo 58, and Peyton 59. Everybody has a QB now. I lost both Percy and Demaryius at 53 and 57. Doh!
At 60 and 61, I don't like any of the WRs. Vincent Jackson? Eric Decker? Nah. Seems too soon. I went with another RB, Isaac Redman, and then Aaron Hernandez, the 5th TE off the board. I'm expecting a run on tight ends in rounds 7 and 8, and don't want to be stuck with Tony Gonzalez. Plus, (spoiler alert) Aaron Hernandez is my #3 tight end.
Sure enough, the next two rounds are a feast of tight ends (4 off the board), as well as the first three DSTs (49ers, Texans, Ravens). Way too soon for a defense. There is never a sure-thing defense, but especially not this year. We also saw a couple backup QBs go (RG3 and Ryan). The Matt Ryan pick was stupid because he already had Tom Brady.
At 80, I'm realizing I should have gone receiver back at the 4th/5th round juncture. Maybe should have gone Miles Austin instead of Ahmad Bradshaw. Now, I'm stuck with Denarius Moore and Torrey Smith. Oh well. Should give me some big games with plenty of inconsistency. Ideally, I'll play the matchup between those two and not have to start both.
The next 18 picks are a shmorgishborg - 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 DSTs, 2 TEs - it's clearly teams filling needs and looking for 'best player available.' An amazing number of awful picks in here: Felix Jones, Sidney Rice, Shane Vereen, Alex Smith, Seattle DST, Laurent Robinson ... guys that will go undrafted in most leagues shoudn't be taken in the 9th and 10th round.
I'm back up at 100 and 101 and go with Toby Gerhart (will start for AP for a while) and Reggie Wayne. Since when can you get Reggie Wayne outside of the top 100? Weird. The Gerhart pick is actually extremely calculated. I'm thinking AP misses 5 or 6 games, and the Vikes' early schedule features a few crappy teams (JAC, TEN, IND, WAS). He might make a spot-start for me during that time, and if AP misses the whole year, I just landed a starting RB in the 10th round.
Rounds 11 and 12 separate the idiots from the geniuses. You can waste a pick on Randy Moss, who probably won't even make San Fran's roster, and Josh Freeman, who shouldn't be on any fantasy rosters, or you can make shrewd picks like TE Jared Cook and Jacquizz Rodgers. That can make all the difference. I end up with Titus Young (for after the Curse strikes) and Jacob Tamme (sleeper TE, potential trade bait).
Rounding out the last three rounds, I take the Jets D, the Bears kicker, and one of my favorite super sleepers, RB Isaiah Pead. Remember, never take more than one defense, and never put any thought into your kicker. The best strategy is to just look at the first 2 or 3 weeks of the schedule and pick a kicker and defense with good matchups. Then drop them and play the matchup all year. Let some other idiot take Janikowski in the 9th round.
Final roster:
QB -
Aaron Rodgers, GB
RBs -
Matt Forte, CHI
Fred Jackson, BUF
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
Isaac Redman, PIT
Toby Gerhart, MIN
Isaiah Pead, STL
WRs -
Greg Jennings, GB
Torrey Smith, BAL
Denarius Moore, OAK
Reggie Wayne, IND
Titus Young, DET
TEs -
Aaron Hernandez, NE
Jacob Tamme, DEN
K- Robbie Gould
DST - Jets
Weak at receiver for sure, but that team will get the job done.
League 2 - Morgan's Macaroni
10 teams, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 flex. Point per reception (PPR). Picking 10th.
Three QBs predictably gone in the top 8. If I pass on QB now, I'm waiting til 30. I expect that either Eli or Romo (my 4th and 5th QBs) will be available at 30, because Cam and Stafford are typically going before Eli and Romo. If I'm wrong, I'll be pretty happy with Cam or Stafford at 30. If all 4 are gone, I'll be a little disappointed because I'll have to reach for Peyton or Rivers. It's a calculated risk, but I pass on QB and with the 11th and 12th picks I take the best RB on my board (Chris Johnson) and the best receiver (Fitzgerald). Could have gone Jennings, but in PPR format Fitz is better.
Eli goes 15th, Stafford 16th, then Cam 19th. I'm screwed. Romo goes right before me, at 28. That's seven QBs in the top 28 picks. Yikes. That's the danger of picking 1st or last in a draft; you wait so long between picks that you can lose all the players you want in one nasty swoop.
At 30, I almost go Rivers, but then I realize only 2 teams besides me still need a QB, and Rivers, Peyton and Vick are on the board. I take another calculated risk and pass on QB again, hoping that I end up with Peyton on the next go-round. I can't resist Jamaal Charles at 30 and then take Julio Jones at 31.
The risk pays off this time, as Vick and Rivers are taken but Peyton falls to me at pick 50. This is an easy pick; the only question now is how long do I wait to take Peyton's backup? At 51, I go Colston. He's good for 80+ catches which is huge in a PPR league.
I get two PPR specialists with the next two picks - Steve Johnson and Jason Witten. I think the other owners don't know this is a PPR league. After that, I somehow end up with Aaron Hernandez at pick 90 (what the heck?) and then snatch Matt Ryan in case Peyton doesn't hold up. I know I just took a second TE when I only have 2 RBs, how can you pass on Aaron Hernandez in the 9th round, especially in PPR? He caught 79 balls last year. He's a better flex player than any WR or RB at this point.
The DST run begins, which is good because I need some RBs with my next 2 picks. The best I can do is James Starks and Donald Brown. Ugh. Going to need Charles and Chris Johnson to stay healthy or I'm sunk.
My next two picks are two guys who only have value in PPR leagues - WRs Danny Amendola and Davonne Bess. Neither will score more than 5 TDs, but both should grab 60+ passes. Probably should have taken more RB depth, but nobody was there worth taking. Eighteen picks later, I land a couple of sleeper RBs in Ryan Williams and Rashard Mendenhall. The goal would be that Mendenhall is healthy by the time one of my starting RBs get hurt.
Last two picks are the Vikings D and Titans kicker. I like the Vikings D because they play at home against Blaine Gabbert week 1. After that I'll drop them.
Final roster:
QBs -
Peyton Manning, DEN
Matt Ryan, ATL
RBs -
Chris Johnson, TEN
Jamaal Charles, KC
James Starks, GB
Donald Brown, IND
Ryan Williams, ARZ
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
WRs -
Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
Julio Jones, ATL
Marques Colston, NO
Steve Johnson, BUF
Danny Amendola, STL
Davonne Bess, MIA
TEs -
Jason Witten, DAL
Aaron Hernandez, NE
K - Rob Bironas, TEN
DST - Vikings
The only weakness this time has is depth at RB. If CJ and Charles stay healthy, I'm going to dominate. My WR and TE depth is amazing.
I'll probably look to leverage my WR depth for a trade. If Amendola grabs 9 balls in week 1 or something, I'll package him and Colston for a decent RB. I trust both Steve Johnson or Colston to be my every-week flex, so I'll gladly trade either of them.
Of course, the other weakness of this team is the unknown status of Peyton Manning. I'm a little bummed to be the 10th guy to grab a QB, but getting arguably the best QB of all time isn't so bad.
League 3 - Morgan's Mustache
This is where it starts to get awesome and somewhat neurotic. This league starts 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 3 flex, 7 individual defensive players (IDPs), and 1 head coach. The coach gets 10 points for a blowout win, 6 points for a good win, 3 points for a close win, and 0 for a loss. This is a PPR league as well.
Points for IDPs are based on solo tackles (1 point apiece), sacks (2), INTs (3), fumbles (3) and TDs (6). You start 2 linebackers, 2 DL, 2 DB, and one flex IDP.
I'm picking 4th. Let the awesomeness begin.
Rice, Foster, Rodgers go 1, 2, and 3. Following my draft board, I take Tom Brady. Maybe dumb considering I need to start 3 RBs and 3 WRs, but whatever. How can you not love Tom Brady this year? I'm seriously starting to think the Pats will go 19-0.
At 17 I take DeMarco Murray. All of the first 16 picks are solid. These teams know what they're doing.
At 24, I'm torn between Hakeem Nicks and Jamaal Charles. Thinking there is more depth at WR than RB this year, I take Charles, and vow to take WRs with 3 of the next 4 picks, even if it means forgoing a solid TE.
At 37 I go Steve Smith. Not a great PPR guy, but oh well. At 44, I have to take Ahmad Bradshaw. Too much value in the 4th round. Why does he keep falling to the 4th round? At 57, I take Demaryius Thomas. Awesome value there. (You may have seen that I have Demaryius ranked one spot ahead of Steve Smith, so why did I take Smith 20 picks earlier? Because of ADP - average draft position. I figured Demaryius would fall well past where I had him ranked, but I knew Smith was going soon. Most drafters follow a pretty standard ranking).
At 64, another value WR in Antonio Brown. This is shaping up as my best team yet. It's nice to pick somewhere in the middle instead of on the end. Still 22 rounds to go. Yikes.
At 77, a PPR pick in CJ Spiller. At 84, Aaron Hernandez, who I now own in all 3 leagues. At 97, Reggie Wayne. At 104, Titus Young. I keep getting the same guys over and over. Same thing happened last year. I think I picked Felix Jones in 30 leagues last year.
At 117, Brandon Pettigrew - a great PPR tight end.
At 124, feeling good about my starting 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 3 flexes, I begin the run on head coaches and take the Packers coach. After that, I get a head start on the IDPs and take the first one - Jason Pierre-Paul.
This starts a run of IDPs, and I zig and take Amendola at pick 164. Then, it's all IDPs for a while: I get Derrick Johnson, DeMarcus Ware, Justin Tuck, Justin Smith, Cortland Finnegan, and Tyvon Branch. Clearly I dominated the IDP section of this draft.
Since this league also features a large bench, I have 7 more rounds to load up on sleepers - so I go Ryan Williams, Isaiah Pead, Davonne Bess, Ronnie Hillman, Coby Fleener, and Taiwan Jones. In the 28th and 29th rounds, I go Jason Hanson and Vikings DST. What a beast of a league.
Final roster:
QB -
Tom Brady, NE
RBs -
DeMarco Murray, DAL
Jamaal Charles, KC
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
CJ Spiller, BUF
Ryan Williams, ARZ
Isaiah Pead, STL
Ronnie Hillman, DEN
Taiwan Jones, OAK
WRs -
Steve Smith, CAR
Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Antonio Brown, PIT
Reggie Wayne, IND
Titus Young, DET
Danny Amendola, STL
Davonne Bess, MIA
TEs -
Aaron Hernandez, NE
Brandon Pettigrew, DET
Coby Fleener, IND
K - Jason Hanson, DET
DST - Vikings
IDP -
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, NYG
Justin Tuck, DT, NYG
Justin Smith, DE, SF
DeMarcus Ware, LB, DAL
Derrick Johnson, LB, KC
Cortland Finnegan, CB, STL
Tyvon Branch, S, OAK
Head Coach - Packers
That's a wicked good team. Undefeated?
League 4 - Morgan's Meerkats
Another 10 team league. 2 RB, 2 WR and an unconventional 3 flex. Standard scoring.
Picking 5th. The first 4 picks are worst case scenario - Rodgers, Rice, Foster, Brady. My cheat sheet says to take Brees, but since this league doesn't matter to me, I'm going to mix things up and see what happens. I go with Maurice Jones Drew, hoping I can wait a while and get Murray or Sonic.
The non-Brees strategy backfires, as Brees goes next, followed quickly by Cam and Stafford, then Eli on the way back. In the first 16 picks, 6 quarterbacks go. Insane. Do I want to reach for Romo here at 16, or take an RB like Forte or Murray (CJ's gone), or take my #2 receiver, Andre Johnson? I go Andre. Mostly on a hunch that either Murray or Forte will be there in the 3rd round. For whatever reason, people don't see these guys as the studs they are.
Indeed, Murray falls to me at pick 25, after I considered taking him at 5. Amazing. Going directly in front of Murray was Adrian Peterson, who might not play until November, and Mike Wallace, who is holding out indefinitely. Thanks for the treat stupid! (go to 2:03)
Since so many QBs went early, only one QB (Peyton) is taken between pick 25 and my next pick at 36. So I somehow end up with Romo at pick 36, after I almost took him at 16. I just got my #5 QB as the 8th QB off the board. Nice.
The fifth round is officially going to be known as the Round of Idiots. Before I take Ahmad Bradshaw at pick 45, Roy Helu, Darren Sproles, Willis McGahee and Antonio Gates go. Yikes. I still can't figure out why Gates is the consensus 3rd tight end this year. As someone who's owned him the past two seasons, I can't say anything positive about him other than "he was awesome five years ago."
My next two picks have to be receivers, and I land decent bargains with Percy Harvin (59) and Eric Decker (65). Would have taken Aaron Hernandez again but he went 58th. After Gronk, Graham and Hernandez, there aren't any tight ends I'm crazy about. I like Finley a little bit but would rather wait a few rounds and try to peg a sleeper.
At this point, I have a QB I am comfortable with, and 3 RBs and 3 WRs. Since I need 3 flex players, I decide it's better to land a safe, startable player instead of an all-or-nothing flier. So I take DeAngelo Williams, pretty hesitantly. Not my favorite pick, but he's probably safe for 5 fantasy points a week. Next pick I do basically the same thing with Mark Ingram.
At 96, in the 10th round, I finally grab a tight end, Jared Cook from the Titans. If Jake Locker is good (big if), Cook could be awesome, especially if drunk-driving Kenny Britt gets suspended and Cook becomes the de facto #1 receiver. At 105, I take a gamble on Giants' rookie RB David Wilson, who if nothing else is a solid handcuff for Bradshaw.
The next two picks are total sleeper receivers who might amount to nothing - Laurent Robinson and Michael Floyd. Not much left to pick from at this point. I take the Jets D and Titans kicker to finish off draft #4.
Final roster:
QB -
Tony Romo, DAL
RBs -
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
DeMarco Murray, DAL
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
DeAngelo Williams, CAR
Mark Ingram, NO
David Wilson, NYG
Mike Tolbert, CAR
WRs -
Andre Johnson, HOU
Percy Harvin, MIN
Eric Decker, DEN
Laurent Robinson, JAC
Michael Floyd, ARZ
TE -
Jared Cook, TEN
K - Rob Bironas, TEN
DST - Jets
A pretty stacked team, though I'm overly reliant on the Cowboys, and weak at receiver.
What I've learned after four mock drafts: It's almost impossible to have quality depth at both RB and WR, especially if you're picking 1st or last. It really helps when 2 or 3 other owners are idiots. But if you're committed to taking a QB early, like most people seem to be, you probably will be weak at either RB or WR.
Tight end rankings to come soon. After that, a final ranking of RBs. Then, perhaps an overall top 200 or something similar.
...
I know this because
1. There are unintelligible lists of scribbled paper all over my nightstand. Some are written on the back of electric bills. I feel like Ben Linus. (All those lisssssts.)
2. I just got done rankings the WRs, QBs, and I'm working on the TEs.
3. And most of all, because I have completed 5 mock drafts.
Here are my results:
League 1 - Morgan Mosquitoes
Standard scoring. Ten teams. 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex. Nothing unusual. Picked 1st overall.
Took Aaron Rodgers happily and confidently.
The next 18 picks featured a shockingly low number of RBs (only 8), along with 5 QBs, 4 WRs and 1 Gronk.
With the 20th pick I was able to land my #9 player overall, Matt Forte. At 21 I paired Rodgers with Greg Jennings. Too many eggs in one basket, or an unbeatable force?
The next 18 picks included only one QB (Eli; Brady, Brees, Vick, Cam and Stafford went early; Rivers and Romo still available at 40) and one TE (Graham) and 9 WRs along with 7 RBs. Some great bargains (Nicks 38 overall, Charles 34 overall) and some reaches (Welker at 23, Cruz at 26). I went with Fred Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw. I neglected the WR position here for three reasons: 1) Great RB value, 2) With all the injuries to RBs, I wanted to get three reliable starters, and 3) I have a gut feeling I can wait til 60 and get either Demaryius Thomas or Percy Harvin. Also, I love Bradshaw and Fred, so no apologies.
Lots of terrible picks in rounds 5 and 6. Roy Helu, Reggie Bush, Shonn Greene, Antonio Gates ... also Rivers goes 54, Romo 58, and Peyton 59. Everybody has a QB now. I lost both Percy and Demaryius at 53 and 57. Doh!
At 60 and 61, I don't like any of the WRs. Vincent Jackson? Eric Decker? Nah. Seems too soon. I went with another RB, Isaac Redman, and then Aaron Hernandez, the 5th TE off the board. I'm expecting a run on tight ends in rounds 7 and 8, and don't want to be stuck with Tony Gonzalez. Plus, (spoiler alert) Aaron Hernandez is my #3 tight end.
Sure enough, the next two rounds are a feast of tight ends (4 off the board), as well as the first three DSTs (49ers, Texans, Ravens). Way too soon for a defense. There is never a sure-thing defense, but especially not this year. We also saw a couple backup QBs go (RG3 and Ryan). The Matt Ryan pick was stupid because he already had Tom Brady.
At 80, I'm realizing I should have gone receiver back at the 4th/5th round juncture. Maybe should have gone Miles Austin instead of Ahmad Bradshaw. Now, I'm stuck with Denarius Moore and Torrey Smith. Oh well. Should give me some big games with plenty of inconsistency. Ideally, I'll play the matchup between those two and not have to start both.
The next 18 picks are a shmorgishborg - 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 DSTs, 2 TEs - it's clearly teams filling needs and looking for 'best player available.' An amazing number of awful picks in here: Felix Jones, Sidney Rice, Shane Vereen, Alex Smith, Seattle DST, Laurent Robinson ... guys that will go undrafted in most leagues shoudn't be taken in the 9th and 10th round.
I'm back up at 100 and 101 and go with Toby Gerhart (will start for AP for a while) and Reggie Wayne. Since when can you get Reggie Wayne outside of the top 100? Weird. The Gerhart pick is actually extremely calculated. I'm thinking AP misses 5 or 6 games, and the Vikes' early schedule features a few crappy teams (JAC, TEN, IND, WAS). He might make a spot-start for me during that time, and if AP misses the whole year, I just landed a starting RB in the 10th round.
Rounds 11 and 12 separate the idiots from the geniuses. You can waste a pick on Randy Moss, who probably won't even make San Fran's roster, and Josh Freeman, who shouldn't be on any fantasy rosters, or you can make shrewd picks like TE Jared Cook and Jacquizz Rodgers. That can make all the difference. I end up with Titus Young (for after the Curse strikes) and Jacob Tamme (sleeper TE, potential trade bait).
Rounding out the last three rounds, I take the Jets D, the Bears kicker, and one of my favorite super sleepers, RB Isaiah Pead. Remember, never take more than one defense, and never put any thought into your kicker. The best strategy is to just look at the first 2 or 3 weeks of the schedule and pick a kicker and defense with good matchups. Then drop them and play the matchup all year. Let some other idiot take Janikowski in the 9th round.
Final roster:
QB -
Aaron Rodgers, GB
RBs -
Matt Forte, CHI
Fred Jackson, BUF
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
Isaac Redman, PIT
Toby Gerhart, MIN
Isaiah Pead, STL
WRs -
Greg Jennings, GB
Torrey Smith, BAL
Denarius Moore, OAK
Reggie Wayne, IND
Titus Young, DET
TEs -
Aaron Hernandez, NE
Jacob Tamme, DEN
K- Robbie Gould
DST - Jets
Weak at receiver for sure, but that team will get the job done.
League 2 - Morgan's Macaroni
10 teams, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 flex. Point per reception (PPR). Picking 10th.
Three QBs predictably gone in the top 8. If I pass on QB now, I'm waiting til 30. I expect that either Eli or Romo (my 4th and 5th QBs) will be available at 30, because Cam and Stafford are typically going before Eli and Romo. If I'm wrong, I'll be pretty happy with Cam or Stafford at 30. If all 4 are gone, I'll be a little disappointed because I'll have to reach for Peyton or Rivers. It's a calculated risk, but I pass on QB and with the 11th and 12th picks I take the best RB on my board (Chris Johnson) and the best receiver (Fitzgerald). Could have gone Jennings, but in PPR format Fitz is better.
Eli goes 15th, Stafford 16th, then Cam 19th. I'm screwed. Romo goes right before me, at 28. That's seven QBs in the top 28 picks. Yikes. That's the danger of picking 1st or last in a draft; you wait so long between picks that you can lose all the players you want in one nasty swoop.
At 30, I almost go Rivers, but then I realize only 2 teams besides me still need a QB, and Rivers, Peyton and Vick are on the board. I take another calculated risk and pass on QB again, hoping that I end up with Peyton on the next go-round. I can't resist Jamaal Charles at 30 and then take Julio Jones at 31.
The risk pays off this time, as Vick and Rivers are taken but Peyton falls to me at pick 50. This is an easy pick; the only question now is how long do I wait to take Peyton's backup? At 51, I go Colston. He's good for 80+ catches which is huge in a PPR league.
I get two PPR specialists with the next two picks - Steve Johnson and Jason Witten. I think the other owners don't know this is a PPR league. After that, I somehow end up with Aaron Hernandez at pick 90 (what the heck?) and then snatch Matt Ryan in case Peyton doesn't hold up. I know I just took a second TE when I only have 2 RBs, how can you pass on Aaron Hernandez in the 9th round, especially in PPR? He caught 79 balls last year. He's a better flex player than any WR or RB at this point.
The DST run begins, which is good because I need some RBs with my next 2 picks. The best I can do is James Starks and Donald Brown. Ugh. Going to need Charles and Chris Johnson to stay healthy or I'm sunk.
My next two picks are two guys who only have value in PPR leagues - WRs Danny Amendola and Davonne Bess. Neither will score more than 5 TDs, but both should grab 60+ passes. Probably should have taken more RB depth, but nobody was there worth taking. Eighteen picks later, I land a couple of sleeper RBs in Ryan Williams and Rashard Mendenhall. The goal would be that Mendenhall is healthy by the time one of my starting RBs get hurt.
Last two picks are the Vikings D and Titans kicker. I like the Vikings D because they play at home against Blaine Gabbert week 1. After that I'll drop them.
Final roster:
QBs -
Peyton Manning, DEN
Matt Ryan, ATL
RBs -
Chris Johnson, TEN
Jamaal Charles, KC
James Starks, GB
Donald Brown, IND
Ryan Williams, ARZ
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
WRs -
Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
Julio Jones, ATL
Marques Colston, NO
Steve Johnson, BUF
Danny Amendola, STL
Davonne Bess, MIA
TEs -
Jason Witten, DAL
Aaron Hernandez, NE
K - Rob Bironas, TEN
DST - Vikings
The only weakness this time has is depth at RB. If CJ and Charles stay healthy, I'm going to dominate. My WR and TE depth is amazing.
I'll probably look to leverage my WR depth for a trade. If Amendola grabs 9 balls in week 1 or something, I'll package him and Colston for a decent RB. I trust both Steve Johnson or Colston to be my every-week flex, so I'll gladly trade either of them.
Of course, the other weakness of this team is the unknown status of Peyton Manning. I'm a little bummed to be the 10th guy to grab a QB, but getting arguably the best QB of all time isn't so bad.
League 3 - Morgan's Mustache
This is where it starts to get awesome and somewhat neurotic. This league starts 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 3 flex, 7 individual defensive players (IDPs), and 1 head coach. The coach gets 10 points for a blowout win, 6 points for a good win, 3 points for a close win, and 0 for a loss. This is a PPR league as well.
Points for IDPs are based on solo tackles (1 point apiece), sacks (2), INTs (3), fumbles (3) and TDs (6). You start 2 linebackers, 2 DL, 2 DB, and one flex IDP.
I'm picking 4th. Let the awesomeness begin.
Rice, Foster, Rodgers go 1, 2, and 3. Following my draft board, I take Tom Brady. Maybe dumb considering I need to start 3 RBs and 3 WRs, but whatever. How can you not love Tom Brady this year? I'm seriously starting to think the Pats will go 19-0.
At 17 I take DeMarco Murray. All of the first 16 picks are solid. These teams know what they're doing.
At 24, I'm torn between Hakeem Nicks and Jamaal Charles. Thinking there is more depth at WR than RB this year, I take Charles, and vow to take WRs with 3 of the next 4 picks, even if it means forgoing a solid TE.
At 37 I go Steve Smith. Not a great PPR guy, but oh well. At 44, I have to take Ahmad Bradshaw. Too much value in the 4th round. Why does he keep falling to the 4th round? At 57, I take Demaryius Thomas. Awesome value there. (You may have seen that I have Demaryius ranked one spot ahead of Steve Smith, so why did I take Smith 20 picks earlier? Because of ADP - average draft position. I figured Demaryius would fall well past where I had him ranked, but I knew Smith was going soon. Most drafters follow a pretty standard ranking).
At 64, another value WR in Antonio Brown. This is shaping up as my best team yet. It's nice to pick somewhere in the middle instead of on the end. Still 22 rounds to go. Yikes.
At 77, a PPR pick in CJ Spiller. At 84, Aaron Hernandez, who I now own in all 3 leagues. At 97, Reggie Wayne. At 104, Titus Young. I keep getting the same guys over and over. Same thing happened last year. I think I picked Felix Jones in 30 leagues last year.
At 117, Brandon Pettigrew - a great PPR tight end.
At 124, feeling good about my starting 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 3 flexes, I begin the run on head coaches and take the Packers coach. After that, I get a head start on the IDPs and take the first one - Jason Pierre-Paul.
This starts a run of IDPs, and I zig and take Amendola at pick 164. Then, it's all IDPs for a while: I get Derrick Johnson, DeMarcus Ware, Justin Tuck, Justin Smith, Cortland Finnegan, and Tyvon Branch. Clearly I dominated the IDP section of this draft.
Since this league also features a large bench, I have 7 more rounds to load up on sleepers - so I go Ryan Williams, Isaiah Pead, Davonne Bess, Ronnie Hillman, Coby Fleener, and Taiwan Jones. In the 28th and 29th rounds, I go Jason Hanson and Vikings DST. What a beast of a league.
Final roster:
QB -
Tom Brady, NE
RBs -
DeMarco Murray, DAL
Jamaal Charles, KC
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
CJ Spiller, BUF
Ryan Williams, ARZ
Isaiah Pead, STL
Ronnie Hillman, DEN
Taiwan Jones, OAK
WRs -
Steve Smith, CAR
Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Antonio Brown, PIT
Reggie Wayne, IND
Titus Young, DET
Danny Amendola, STL
Davonne Bess, MIA
TEs -
Aaron Hernandez, NE
Brandon Pettigrew, DET
Coby Fleener, IND
K - Jason Hanson, DET
DST - Vikings
IDP -
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, NYG
Justin Tuck, DT, NYG
Justin Smith, DE, SF
DeMarcus Ware, LB, DAL
Derrick Johnson, LB, KC
Cortland Finnegan, CB, STL
Tyvon Branch, S, OAK
Head Coach - Packers
That's a wicked good team. Undefeated?
League 4 - Morgan's Meerkats
Another 10 team league. 2 RB, 2 WR and an unconventional 3 flex. Standard scoring.
Picking 5th. The first 4 picks are worst case scenario - Rodgers, Rice, Foster, Brady. My cheat sheet says to take Brees, but since this league doesn't matter to me, I'm going to mix things up and see what happens. I go with Maurice Jones Drew, hoping I can wait a while and get Murray or Sonic.
The non-Brees strategy backfires, as Brees goes next, followed quickly by Cam and Stafford, then Eli on the way back. In the first 16 picks, 6 quarterbacks go. Insane. Do I want to reach for Romo here at 16, or take an RB like Forte or Murray (CJ's gone), or take my #2 receiver, Andre Johnson? I go Andre. Mostly on a hunch that either Murray or Forte will be there in the 3rd round. For whatever reason, people don't see these guys as the studs they are.
Indeed, Murray falls to me at pick 25, after I considered taking him at 5. Amazing. Going directly in front of Murray was Adrian Peterson, who might not play until November, and Mike Wallace, who is holding out indefinitely. Thanks for the treat stupid! (go to 2:03)
Since so many QBs went early, only one QB (Peyton) is taken between pick 25 and my next pick at 36. So I somehow end up with Romo at pick 36, after I almost took him at 16. I just got my #5 QB as the 8th QB off the board. Nice.
The fifth round is officially going to be known as the Round of Idiots. Before I take Ahmad Bradshaw at pick 45, Roy Helu, Darren Sproles, Willis McGahee and Antonio Gates go. Yikes. I still can't figure out why Gates is the consensus 3rd tight end this year. As someone who's owned him the past two seasons, I can't say anything positive about him other than "he was awesome five years ago."
My next two picks have to be receivers, and I land decent bargains with Percy Harvin (59) and Eric Decker (65). Would have taken Aaron Hernandez again but he went 58th. After Gronk, Graham and Hernandez, there aren't any tight ends I'm crazy about. I like Finley a little bit but would rather wait a few rounds and try to peg a sleeper.
At this point, I have a QB I am comfortable with, and 3 RBs and 3 WRs. Since I need 3 flex players, I decide it's better to land a safe, startable player instead of an all-or-nothing flier. So I take DeAngelo Williams, pretty hesitantly. Not my favorite pick, but he's probably safe for 5 fantasy points a week. Next pick I do basically the same thing with Mark Ingram.
At 96, in the 10th round, I finally grab a tight end, Jared Cook from the Titans. If Jake Locker is good (big if), Cook could be awesome, especially if drunk-driving Kenny Britt gets suspended and Cook becomes the de facto #1 receiver. At 105, I take a gamble on Giants' rookie RB David Wilson, who if nothing else is a solid handcuff for Bradshaw.
The next two picks are total sleeper receivers who might amount to nothing - Laurent Robinson and Michael Floyd. Not much left to pick from at this point. I take the Jets D and Titans kicker to finish off draft #4.
Final roster:
QB -
Tony Romo, DAL
RBs -
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
DeMarco Murray, DAL
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
DeAngelo Williams, CAR
Mark Ingram, NO
David Wilson, NYG
Mike Tolbert, CAR
WRs -
Andre Johnson, HOU
Percy Harvin, MIN
Eric Decker, DEN
Laurent Robinson, JAC
Michael Floyd, ARZ
TE -
Jared Cook, TEN
K - Rob Bironas, TEN
DST - Jets
A pretty stacked team, though I'm overly reliant on the Cowboys, and weak at receiver.
What I've learned after four mock drafts: It's almost impossible to have quality depth at both RB and WR, especially if you're picking 1st or last. It really helps when 2 or 3 other owners are idiots. But if you're committed to taking a QB early, like most people seem to be, you probably will be weak at either RB or WR.
Tight end rankings to come soon. After that, a final ranking of RBs. Then, perhaps an overall top 200 or something similar.
...
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Fantasy Football Rankings - QBs
I believe Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady should be the first two players off the board, even in those weird leagues where passing TDs are only worth 4 points. I also believe Brees should go in the top 5, maybe even third overall. Those are the three safest players in fantasy football; least likely to get hurt, most likely to dominate. They have everything going in their favor: track record, supporting cast, elite talent, offensive system ... even Roger Goodell seems to be creating rules to benefit them. So as much as you might want Arian Foster or Ray Rice, my recommendation is take a QB in the top 3, and then spends rounds 2-10 stockpiling on RBs and WRs.
So, what happens if you are picking 12th, or 10th, and those guys are all gone? Even in the most old-fashioned leagues, all 3 quarterbacks will be gone in the top 10. So who else can you trust? And in what round? Are there any late-round bargains, or should you beat the rush and take the best QB available in the 2nd or 3rd round?
Here are my fantasy QB rankings:
1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Brees
See above.
4. Eli Manning.
Love Cam and Stafford's upside, but I think Eli is the safest QB outside of the top three. You can probably get him late 2nd or early 3rd round.
5. Tony Romo.
As Dallas evolves into a successful running team, Romo will become more efficient and probably more productive. He has always thrived in play-action, and now it'll work even better with a great RB. A potential bargain pick; everyone is shying away from Dallas because of the Dez Bryant drama.
6. Cam Newton.
Newly acquired Mike Tolbert will steal Cam's goal-line carries and prevent him from rushing for 14 scores again. But 4,000 passing yards and 700 rushing yards again is reasonable, and at least 5 or 6 rushing TDs. However, keep in mind that if you want him you're really going to have to reach; he's going in the 2nd round, sometimes as early as 15th overall.
7. Matt Stafford.
Three years ago: "No where to go but up!"
Two years ago: "Stafford is unflappable!"
Last year: "Can Stafford stay healthy?"
This year's overarching question: "How will Stafford do without Calvin?"
I really have no idea what to expect from Stafford during the 6 or more games that Megatron misses. It will really suck, especially if the run game doesn't develop. I surely wouldn't want to rely on him for fantasy purposes during that time. That's why I have him ranked 7th; without the Madden Curse he would be 4th.
8. Phillip Rivers.
Losing Vincent Jackson will be tough, and Norv Turner vows to give Ryan Matthews a very heavy workload. But I still think PR will put up massive stats. He always does. Even during his bad year, he went for 4,600 yards and 27 TDs. He won't throw 20 INTs again. Plus, I think Eddie Royal can step into that Sproles-ish role as the safety-valve, slot-guy. He's a buy-low pick that you can rely on.
9. Peyton Manning.
The ultimate in risk-reward. He might not be fully recovered, and even if he is, he might be rusty. Plus he doesn't have any proven receivers, and he's playing home games outdoors for the first time ever. Worth a gamble in the 4th, maybe 3rd round - just make sure you get a reasonable backup QB somewhere around the 7th or 8th round.
10. Michael Vick.
The injury to Jason Peters is going to be directly responsible for at least 1 injury to Vick this year. Count on him to play between 7 and 10 games. So in other words, if you take him, you need to take a backup QB shortly after. But it might just be worth it. When the matchup is right, he'll rush for 150 yards and any passing stats he gets are gravy. Plus he gets easy yardage on McCoy's screen passes.
11. Jay Cutler.
Cutler is probably the last guy I would ever draft, even if he were available in the last round. I just can't stand him. But if you don't care about personal feelings, you might as well roll with him. Brandon Marshall is going to make Cutler relevant in fantasy world again. He's a buy-low bargain.
12. Matt Schaub.
Houston is clearly a run-first team, but Schaub will have plenty of chances in the red zone against their easy schedule. Another buy-low QB; nobody wants to touch him after the season-ending injury, but it was only a foot injury, not a knee, arm or shoulder.
13. Matt Ryan.
Going earlier than Vick, Cutler and Schaub, simply based on having a great duo of receivers. But those receivers can't do anything if Ryan can't get them the ball, and we've yet to see him throw 30 TDs or 4,200 yards. He really hasn't gotten better after four years in the league.
14. Ben Roethlisberger.
Improved offensive line, injured running back, new offensive coordinator ... everything points to Pittsburgh becoming a pass-happy team. Ben is a good bet to lead the NFL in sacks and INTs, but also rack up tons of yards on stupid hailmarys.
*This is where it gets tough. If you're still paying attention at this point, you're looking for a backup or a sleeper QB.
If you have Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Eli, Romo or Rivers, I would recommend standing pat and using the extra bench spot on a flier WR or a handcuff RB. Sleeper QBs can be exciting, but they'll just sit on your bench every week. Unless you want to grab one for potential trade bait.
If you have an injury-prone QB such as Cam, Peyton, Vick or Big Ben, I would draft a backup QB who is safe, reliable, and pretty mediocre. Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, maybe Andy Dalton.
If you have Stafford, Cutler, Schaub, or Ryan, I would draft a backup who has a little more upside and potentially more downside. RG3 is the obvious name because of his potential to run for 1,000 yards, but I'd also look at Luck, Bradford, Freeman, and if you're feeling really adventurous, Ponder or Locker.
And if you want to be "that guy," take Tim Tebow.
If you don't have one of the top 14 guys, your season is pretty much screwed. So I'd recommend getting an early start on the QB run. Make someone else in your league rely on Vick, Schaub or Cutler; you'll feel much better when you're not playing the QB matchup every week.
GO LIONS!
So, what happens if you are picking 12th, or 10th, and those guys are all gone? Even in the most old-fashioned leagues, all 3 quarterbacks will be gone in the top 10. So who else can you trust? And in what round? Are there any late-round bargains, or should you beat the rush and take the best QB available in the 2nd or 3rd round?
Here are my fantasy QB rankings:
1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Brees
See above.
4. Eli Manning.
Love Cam and Stafford's upside, but I think Eli is the safest QB outside of the top three. You can probably get him late 2nd or early 3rd round.
5. Tony Romo.
As Dallas evolves into a successful running team, Romo will become more efficient and probably more productive. He has always thrived in play-action, and now it'll work even better with a great RB. A potential bargain pick; everyone is shying away from Dallas because of the Dez Bryant drama.
6. Cam Newton.
Newly acquired Mike Tolbert will steal Cam's goal-line carries and prevent him from rushing for 14 scores again. But 4,000 passing yards and 700 rushing yards again is reasonable, and at least 5 or 6 rushing TDs. However, keep in mind that if you want him you're really going to have to reach; he's going in the 2nd round, sometimes as early as 15th overall.
7. Matt Stafford.
Three years ago: "No where to go but up!"
Two years ago: "Stafford is unflappable!"
Last year: "Can Stafford stay healthy?"
This year's overarching question: "How will Stafford do without Calvin?"
I really have no idea what to expect from Stafford during the 6 or more games that Megatron misses. It will really suck, especially if the run game doesn't develop. I surely wouldn't want to rely on him for fantasy purposes during that time. That's why I have him ranked 7th; without the Madden Curse he would be 4th.
8. Phillip Rivers.
Losing Vincent Jackson will be tough, and Norv Turner vows to give Ryan Matthews a very heavy workload. But I still think PR will put up massive stats. He always does. Even during his bad year, he went for 4,600 yards and 27 TDs. He won't throw 20 INTs again. Plus, I think Eddie Royal can step into that Sproles-ish role as the safety-valve, slot-guy. He's a buy-low pick that you can rely on.
9. Peyton Manning.
The ultimate in risk-reward. He might not be fully recovered, and even if he is, he might be rusty. Plus he doesn't have any proven receivers, and he's playing home games outdoors for the first time ever. Worth a gamble in the 4th, maybe 3rd round - just make sure you get a reasonable backup QB somewhere around the 7th or 8th round.
10. Michael Vick.
The injury to Jason Peters is going to be directly responsible for at least 1 injury to Vick this year. Count on him to play between 7 and 10 games. So in other words, if you take him, you need to take a backup QB shortly after. But it might just be worth it. When the matchup is right, he'll rush for 150 yards and any passing stats he gets are gravy. Plus he gets easy yardage on McCoy's screen passes.
11. Jay Cutler.
Cutler is probably the last guy I would ever draft, even if he were available in the last round. I just can't stand him. But if you don't care about personal feelings, you might as well roll with him. Brandon Marshall is going to make Cutler relevant in fantasy world again. He's a buy-low bargain.
12. Matt Schaub.
Houston is clearly a run-first team, but Schaub will have plenty of chances in the red zone against their easy schedule. Another buy-low QB; nobody wants to touch him after the season-ending injury, but it was only a foot injury, not a knee, arm or shoulder.
13. Matt Ryan.
Going earlier than Vick, Cutler and Schaub, simply based on having a great duo of receivers. But those receivers can't do anything if Ryan can't get them the ball, and we've yet to see him throw 30 TDs or 4,200 yards. He really hasn't gotten better after four years in the league.
14. Ben Roethlisberger.
Improved offensive line, injured running back, new offensive coordinator ... everything points to Pittsburgh becoming a pass-happy team. Ben is a good bet to lead the NFL in sacks and INTs, but also rack up tons of yards on stupid hailmarys.
*This is where it gets tough. If you're still paying attention at this point, you're looking for a backup or a sleeper QB.
If you have Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Eli, Romo or Rivers, I would recommend standing pat and using the extra bench spot on a flier WR or a handcuff RB. Sleeper QBs can be exciting, but they'll just sit on your bench every week. Unless you want to grab one for potential trade bait.
If you have an injury-prone QB such as Cam, Peyton, Vick or Big Ben, I would draft a backup QB who is safe, reliable, and pretty mediocre. Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, maybe Andy Dalton.
If you have Stafford, Cutler, Schaub, or Ryan, I would draft a backup who has a little more upside and potentially more downside. RG3 is the obvious name because of his potential to run for 1,000 yards, but I'd also look at Luck, Bradford, Freeman, and if you're feeling really adventurous, Ponder or Locker.
And if you want to be "that guy," take Tim Tebow.
If you don't have one of the top 14 guys, your season is pretty much screwed. So I'd recommend getting an early start on the QB run. Make someone else in your league rely on Vick, Schaub or Cutler; you'll feel much better when you're not playing the QB matchup every week.
GO LIONS!
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Fantasy Football Rankings - Wide Receivers
In my last post, I lamented that there are no totally reliable running backs this year. But you may have noticed I didn't include any receivers in my top 10. That's because, unfortunately, I am skeptical of all the receivers as well. I'm just waaay too cynical after years of getting screwed by first round picks. Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, Lawrence Maroney ... I hate you all.
After much researching, Youtubing, scribbling, and over-thinking, here are my 2012 wide receiver rankings:
1. Calvin Johnson. I'm putting Megatron at #1 as a formality. He'll be the 1st receiver taken in every draft, and fairly so. However, the Madden Curse is a proven reality. So I won't be taking him.
2. Went back and forth here with Jennings and Fitzgerald ... and finally decided to rank Andre Johnson #2 instead. I think it's a buy-low year for Andre. The awesome Houston running game makes things pretty easy for him. And he doesn't share red-zone targets with anyone.
3. Greg Jennings. Best receiver on the team with the best QB = safe production. I'm not buying into Jordy Nelson. Jennings is still the man in GB.
4. Larry Fitzgerald. Put up 1,400 yards and 8 TDs with no quarterback last year. Should do about the same this year.
5. Hakeem Nicks. Victor Cruz is more sexy, but Nicks still occupies the #1WR spot on the depth chart, and you can count on Eli to rack up yardage and points.
6. AJ Green. Wouldn't be shocked to see him put up similar numbers to what Calvin did in his second year - 1,300 yards and 12 TDs. Only question mark is Dalton's consistency.
7. Brandon Marshall. Jay Cutler hasn't had a real receiver since arriving in Chicago. Now he does. He'll completely forego everyone else and Marshall might lead the NFL in targets.
8. Dez Bryant. Massive disappointment for me last year in the 3rd round. I may have been a year too early. DeMarco Murray is going to demand a lot of attention and Dez should see lots of single coverage.
9. Roddy White.
10. Julio Jones.
I'm down on both Falcons receivers; they cancel each other out too much. Julio is going to replace Roddy as the redzone guy, but Roddy still moves the chains and has Matt Ryan's trust. I think Roddy goes for 1,200 yards, 90 catches, but only 5 or 6 scores ... while Julio puts up 12 TDs and only 800 yards. Both good picks ... but they are both going too early.
11. Victor Cruz. Another guy who's going too early. He was a fun surprise last year, but reality sets in and now people are ready for him. Don't expect more 99 yard TDs either.
12. Miles Austin. People are forgetting about Austin after he missed 6 games last year and had only 500 yards. He appears to be a buy-low candidate, should score 10+ TDs.
13. Demaryius Thomas. Went back and forth on which Bronco I want this year. Demaryius reminds me too much of Calvin Johnson for me to resist. But Decker suits Peyton Manning's style better, so I like him a lot too. Both guys should produce assuming Peyton is Peyton.
14. Steve Smith. Left for dead last year, and then totally exploded. Color me skeptical, but I'm willing to roll the dice.
15. Percy Harvin. With AP out for an unknown amount of time, Percy is the Vikings' only offensive weapon outside of the TE position. He isn't big enough to beat the double team consistently, but by virtue of number of targets he'll make a suitable fantasy option. Also a good bet to lead all WRs in rushing yardage.
16. Antonio Brown. Notice you haven't seen Mike Wallace's name yet. I'm waiting to see what becomes of his contract/ holdout. He wants Larry Fitzgerald type money, and clearly doesn't deserve that much. But Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose him. In the meantime, Brown is Pittsburgh's #1 receiver, and should be good for plenty of Roethlisberger's patented "3rd and 25 desperation-miracle-TDs." Even if Wallace signs, I like Brown a lot as their #2 guy. I'll bump Wallace up to 8th if and when he signs. For now, he's in the low 20s.
17. Steve Johnson. I'm pretty unashamed of my love of the Bills this year. I like Stevie on account of he's their only wide receiver worth anything.
18. Wes Welker. A little squeamish on Welker this year ... the tight ends have taken over in Foxboro, and now Brandon Lloyd is there with his buddy, Josh McDaniels. Welker is still safe, but no longer a stud. In PPR leagues, however, feel free to make him a top 5 receiver.
19. Marques Colston. Classic example of drafting a guy simply based on what team he plays for. By himself, Colston doesn't impress me. But being Drew Brees's top WR means plenty of chances. Graham is really the #1 option though.
20 Eric Decker. Peyton Manning has shown an affinity for white receivers in the past. Decker could be the next Stokley/Collie who inexplicably puts up 10 TDs.
21. Brandon Lloyd. Can't decide whether to rank him #1 ahead of Calvin, or drop him out of the top 100. I have no clue what Bill Belichick is ever going to do with his offense. I guess common sense says he'll be better than Ochocinco was last year, but not as good as Moss was in 2009. Fifth round seems about right.
22. Jeremy Maclin.
23. DeSean Jackson.
I don't like either Philly receiver very much, given Vick's likelihood to get injured, and McCoy's likelihood to lead the team in catches. These guys are both feast or famine; you're either getting a huge 70-yard TD or you're getting nothing. Also, Jackson is an off-the-field idiot.
24. Mike Wallace. Wait and see if he signs. A holdout is very likely.
25. Malcolm Floyd. With Vincent Jackson gone and Gates getting old, somebody has to catch Phillip Rivers's deep ball. Floyd appears the top candidate, but I'm not sold that he keeps the #1 WR job over Robert Meachem and/or Vincent Brown.
26. Vincent Jackson. Speaking of V-Jack, his move to the Bucs pummels his fantasy value, but skyrockets his salary, so at least he's happy. I wouldn't touch the Tampa offense until we see signs of life.
27. Jordy Nelson. As I mentioned, I'm leaning towards Jordy's 15-TD campaign being a fluke. I kind of think JerMichael Finley supplants him as the #2 target. Still a good player to have, but he's going too early.
28. Kenny Britt.
29. Dwayne Bowe.
Nearly identical players - both about the same size, both picked near the end of the first round, both tremendously talented and tremendously stupid. Both have been arrested, suspended, and injured. Now, Bowe is holding out and Britt just got a DUI, his third arrest in 16 months. I wouldn't touch either guy until you know they're going to play. If Britt gets a 4-game suspension, you might be able to snag him in the 12th round or something. If Bowe holds out, same thing. Sad wastes of potential.
30. Denarius Moore. My first official "sleeper" I guess. If Carson Palmer has proven anything over the last few years, besides the fact that he sucks, it's that he can put up monster stats in garbage time. Denarius could be the benefactor of lots of meaningless 4th quarter bombs when Oakland is trailing by 20.
31. Torrey Smith. While he'll take over the #1 WR job in Baltimore, I'm not sure he's ready for it. Ray Rice is their offense, and they want to move to a tight-end heavy system. Boldin is there too, and Jacoby Jones is a deep threat. Also Tandon Doss. Not sure how it'll shake out. But I don't trust Torrey Smith to consistently catch more than 4 or 5 balls a game.
32. Emmanuel Sanders. If indeed Mike Wallace holds out, Sanders becomes the #2 receiver for Pittsburgh and becomes a bargain.
33. Michael Crabtree.
34. Santonio Holmes.
Two dudes who need to shut up and play like 1st round picks.
35. Reggie Wayne. Will Andrew Luck be okay with throwing to Peyton's old guy? Or will he try to re-invent himself throwing to Coby Fleener and T.Y. Hitlon? Good question.
36. Santana Moss. You can always count on Santana ranking somewhere in the 30s every year. He doesn't score much, but he might be the benefactor of those famous RG3 bubble screens. But don't get too excited; he's 33 and slowing down. Washington brought in Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan.
37. Mike Williams, Tampa. A dud last year, but now won't have to face double teams. Josh Freeman likes him. Maybe he'll bounce back somewhat.
38. Justin Blackmon. Give him a shot in keeper leagues; maybe Jacksonville will get a new QB in 2013.
39. Greg Little. Does the #1 WR on Cleveland really count as a #1 WR?
40. Titus Young. Probably worth taking if you believe the Curse knocks Megatron out early in the year.
41. Darrius Heyward-Bey. He'll have plenty of garbage yards as well in Oakland.
42. Lestar Jean. Houston's never-ending quest to find a #2 receiver may finally be solved. This dude can play.
42. Robert Meachem. Worth a shot. Rivers might take a liking to him.
43. Devery Henderson.
44. Lance Moore.
With Meachem gone, these guys get a little more valuable. Drew Brees always spreads the ball around. Don't count on them every week, but they're nice guys to have on the bench and play when the matchup is right.
45. Jabar Gaffney. Looks like he'll be the #3 receiver for Tom Brady. Which really doesn't mean a lot with Gronk and Hernandez. But in case of an injury ... Gaffney becomes valuable.
46. Kendall Wright. With Kenny Britt's troubles, Wright has a shot to be the #1 WR in Tennessee. Definitely a good pick in keeper leagues. He'll have some growing pains though.
47. Pierre Garcon. Washington didn't give him $42 million to sit the bench.
48. Danny Amendola.
49. Davonne Bess.
Both desperation fantasy receivers, but highly valuable in PPR leagues. Should catch 80+ passes for their lousy offenses.
50. Sidney Rice. Pete Carroll can't decide who his starting QB is - Flynn, Tavaris, or maybe the 5th round rookie. At the same time, he has no idea who his #1 receiver is ... Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin...? Stay away.
51. Andre Caldwell. Might be Peyton's #3 in Denver.
52. Anquan Boldin. Worth a gamble, though he appears to be finished.
53. Nate Burleson. Calvin's injury is inevitable, right?
54. Mario Manningham. Moving to San Fran probably hurts his stats, but maybe Alex Smith will like him?
55. Michael Floyd. Opposite Larry Fitzgerald is a good place to be. Obvious keeper pick.
56. Laurent Robinson. Talent is there, but you don't want anything to do with Jacksonville.
57. James Jones. The #3 receiver in GB gets a few random TDs now and then.
58. Eddie Royal. Rivers wants to use him as a slot guy.
59. Jonathan Baldwin. Lots of people like him as a sleeper. I'm not crazy about him. Matt Cassel stinks.
60. Randall Cobb. Might overtake James Jones in GB.
Other sleepers to consider ...
Brandon LaFell, Carolina. #2 behind Steve Smith, who has gotten hurt plenty of times.
Chad Ochocinco, Miami. Whatever.
Reuben Randle, Giants. Eli's #3. Upside galore.
Stephen Hill, Jets. Rookie from Georgia Tech makes a decent late round flier.
Brian Quick, Rams. Another rookie with upside. But on a bad team.
Ryan Broyles, Lions. Hey, why not?
Nick Toon, Saints. Anyone on the Saints is worth a look.
T.Y. Hilton, Colts. Luck's fellow rookie.
Hope you found this helpful, but not too helpful if you're in my league. GO LIONS!!
After much researching, Youtubing, scribbling, and over-thinking, here are my 2012 wide receiver rankings:
1. Calvin Johnson. I'm putting Megatron at #1 as a formality. He'll be the 1st receiver taken in every draft, and fairly so. However, the Madden Curse is a proven reality. So I won't be taking him.
2. Went back and forth here with Jennings and Fitzgerald ... and finally decided to rank Andre Johnson #2 instead. I think it's a buy-low year for Andre. The awesome Houston running game makes things pretty easy for him. And he doesn't share red-zone targets with anyone.
3. Greg Jennings. Best receiver on the team with the best QB = safe production. I'm not buying into Jordy Nelson. Jennings is still the man in GB.
4. Larry Fitzgerald. Put up 1,400 yards and 8 TDs with no quarterback last year. Should do about the same this year.
5. Hakeem Nicks. Victor Cruz is more sexy, but Nicks still occupies the #1WR spot on the depth chart, and you can count on Eli to rack up yardage and points.
6. AJ Green. Wouldn't be shocked to see him put up similar numbers to what Calvin did in his second year - 1,300 yards and 12 TDs. Only question mark is Dalton's consistency.
7. Brandon Marshall. Jay Cutler hasn't had a real receiver since arriving in Chicago. Now he does. He'll completely forego everyone else and Marshall might lead the NFL in targets.
8. Dez Bryant. Massive disappointment for me last year in the 3rd round. I may have been a year too early. DeMarco Murray is going to demand a lot of attention and Dez should see lots of single coverage.
9. Roddy White.
10. Julio Jones.
I'm down on both Falcons receivers; they cancel each other out too much. Julio is going to replace Roddy as the redzone guy, but Roddy still moves the chains and has Matt Ryan's trust. I think Roddy goes for 1,200 yards, 90 catches, but only 5 or 6 scores ... while Julio puts up 12 TDs and only 800 yards. Both good picks ... but they are both going too early.
11. Victor Cruz. Another guy who's going too early. He was a fun surprise last year, but reality sets in and now people are ready for him. Don't expect more 99 yard TDs either.
12. Miles Austin. People are forgetting about Austin after he missed 6 games last year and had only 500 yards. He appears to be a buy-low candidate, should score 10+ TDs.
13. Demaryius Thomas. Went back and forth on which Bronco I want this year. Demaryius reminds me too much of Calvin Johnson for me to resist. But Decker suits Peyton Manning's style better, so I like him a lot too. Both guys should produce assuming Peyton is Peyton.
14. Steve Smith. Left for dead last year, and then totally exploded. Color me skeptical, but I'm willing to roll the dice.
15. Percy Harvin. With AP out for an unknown amount of time, Percy is the Vikings' only offensive weapon outside of the TE position. He isn't big enough to beat the double team consistently, but by virtue of number of targets he'll make a suitable fantasy option. Also a good bet to lead all WRs in rushing yardage.
16. Antonio Brown. Notice you haven't seen Mike Wallace's name yet. I'm waiting to see what becomes of his contract/ holdout. He wants Larry Fitzgerald type money, and clearly doesn't deserve that much. But Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose him. In the meantime, Brown is Pittsburgh's #1 receiver, and should be good for plenty of Roethlisberger's patented "3rd and 25 desperation-miracle-TDs." Even if Wallace signs, I like Brown a lot as their #2 guy. I'll bump Wallace up to 8th if and when he signs. For now, he's in the low 20s.
17. Steve Johnson. I'm pretty unashamed of my love of the Bills this year. I like Stevie on account of he's their only wide receiver worth anything.
18. Wes Welker. A little squeamish on Welker this year ... the tight ends have taken over in Foxboro, and now Brandon Lloyd is there with his buddy, Josh McDaniels. Welker is still safe, but no longer a stud. In PPR leagues, however, feel free to make him a top 5 receiver.
19. Marques Colston. Classic example of drafting a guy simply based on what team he plays for. By himself, Colston doesn't impress me. But being Drew Brees's top WR means plenty of chances. Graham is really the #1 option though.
20 Eric Decker. Peyton Manning has shown an affinity for white receivers in the past. Decker could be the next Stokley/Collie who inexplicably puts up 10 TDs.
21. Brandon Lloyd. Can't decide whether to rank him #1 ahead of Calvin, or drop him out of the top 100. I have no clue what Bill Belichick is ever going to do with his offense. I guess common sense says he'll be better than Ochocinco was last year, but not as good as Moss was in 2009. Fifth round seems about right.
22. Jeremy Maclin.
23. DeSean Jackson.
I don't like either Philly receiver very much, given Vick's likelihood to get injured, and McCoy's likelihood to lead the team in catches. These guys are both feast or famine; you're either getting a huge 70-yard TD or you're getting nothing. Also, Jackson is an off-the-field idiot.
24. Mike Wallace. Wait and see if he signs. A holdout is very likely.
25. Malcolm Floyd. With Vincent Jackson gone and Gates getting old, somebody has to catch Phillip Rivers's deep ball. Floyd appears the top candidate, but I'm not sold that he keeps the #1 WR job over Robert Meachem and/or Vincent Brown.
26. Vincent Jackson. Speaking of V-Jack, his move to the Bucs pummels his fantasy value, but skyrockets his salary, so at least he's happy. I wouldn't touch the Tampa offense until we see signs of life.
27. Jordy Nelson. As I mentioned, I'm leaning towards Jordy's 15-TD campaign being a fluke. I kind of think JerMichael Finley supplants him as the #2 target. Still a good player to have, but he's going too early.
28. Kenny Britt.
29. Dwayne Bowe.
Nearly identical players - both about the same size, both picked near the end of the first round, both tremendously talented and tremendously stupid. Both have been arrested, suspended, and injured. Now, Bowe is holding out and Britt just got a DUI, his third arrest in 16 months. I wouldn't touch either guy until you know they're going to play. If Britt gets a 4-game suspension, you might be able to snag him in the 12th round or something. If Bowe holds out, same thing. Sad wastes of potential.
30. Denarius Moore. My first official "sleeper" I guess. If Carson Palmer has proven anything over the last few years, besides the fact that he sucks, it's that he can put up monster stats in garbage time. Denarius could be the benefactor of lots of meaningless 4th quarter bombs when Oakland is trailing by 20.
31. Torrey Smith. While he'll take over the #1 WR job in Baltimore, I'm not sure he's ready for it. Ray Rice is their offense, and they want to move to a tight-end heavy system. Boldin is there too, and Jacoby Jones is a deep threat. Also Tandon Doss. Not sure how it'll shake out. But I don't trust Torrey Smith to consistently catch more than 4 or 5 balls a game.
32. Emmanuel Sanders. If indeed Mike Wallace holds out, Sanders becomes the #2 receiver for Pittsburgh and becomes a bargain.
33. Michael Crabtree.
34. Santonio Holmes.
Two dudes who need to shut up and play like 1st round picks.
35. Reggie Wayne. Will Andrew Luck be okay with throwing to Peyton's old guy? Or will he try to re-invent himself throwing to Coby Fleener and T.Y. Hitlon? Good question.
36. Santana Moss. You can always count on Santana ranking somewhere in the 30s every year. He doesn't score much, but he might be the benefactor of those famous RG3 bubble screens. But don't get too excited; he's 33 and slowing down. Washington brought in Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan.
37. Mike Williams, Tampa. A dud last year, but now won't have to face double teams. Josh Freeman likes him. Maybe he'll bounce back somewhat.
38. Justin Blackmon. Give him a shot in keeper leagues; maybe Jacksonville will get a new QB in 2013.
39. Greg Little. Does the #1 WR on Cleveland really count as a #1 WR?
40. Titus Young. Probably worth taking if you believe the Curse knocks Megatron out early in the year.
41. Darrius Heyward-Bey. He'll have plenty of garbage yards as well in Oakland.
42. Lestar Jean. Houston's never-ending quest to find a #2 receiver may finally be solved. This dude can play.
42. Robert Meachem. Worth a shot. Rivers might take a liking to him.
43. Devery Henderson.
44. Lance Moore.
With Meachem gone, these guys get a little more valuable. Drew Brees always spreads the ball around. Don't count on them every week, but they're nice guys to have on the bench and play when the matchup is right.
45. Jabar Gaffney. Looks like he'll be the #3 receiver for Tom Brady. Which really doesn't mean a lot with Gronk and Hernandez. But in case of an injury ... Gaffney becomes valuable.
46. Kendall Wright. With Kenny Britt's troubles, Wright has a shot to be the #1 WR in Tennessee. Definitely a good pick in keeper leagues. He'll have some growing pains though.
47. Pierre Garcon. Washington didn't give him $42 million to sit the bench.
48. Danny Amendola.
49. Davonne Bess.
Both desperation fantasy receivers, but highly valuable in PPR leagues. Should catch 80+ passes for their lousy offenses.
50. Sidney Rice. Pete Carroll can't decide who his starting QB is - Flynn, Tavaris, or maybe the 5th round rookie. At the same time, he has no idea who his #1 receiver is ... Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin...? Stay away.
51. Andre Caldwell. Might be Peyton's #3 in Denver.
52. Anquan Boldin. Worth a gamble, though he appears to be finished.
53. Nate Burleson. Calvin's injury is inevitable, right?
54. Mario Manningham. Moving to San Fran probably hurts his stats, but maybe Alex Smith will like him?
55. Michael Floyd. Opposite Larry Fitzgerald is a good place to be. Obvious keeper pick.
56. Laurent Robinson. Talent is there, but you don't want anything to do with Jacksonville.
57. James Jones. The #3 receiver in GB gets a few random TDs now and then.
58. Eddie Royal. Rivers wants to use him as a slot guy.
59. Jonathan Baldwin. Lots of people like him as a sleeper. I'm not crazy about him. Matt Cassel stinks.
60. Randall Cobb. Might overtake James Jones in GB.
Other sleepers to consider ...
Brandon LaFell, Carolina. #2 behind Steve Smith, who has gotten hurt plenty of times.
Chad Ochocinco, Miami. Whatever.
Reuben Randle, Giants. Eli's #3. Upside galore.
Stephen Hill, Jets. Rookie from Georgia Tech makes a decent late round flier.
Brian Quick, Rams. Another rookie with upside. But on a bad team.
Ryan Broyles, Lions. Hey, why not?
Nick Toon, Saints. Anyone on the Saints is worth a look.
T.Y. Hilton, Colts. Luck's fellow rookie.
Hope you found this helpful, but not too helpful if you're in my league. GO LIONS!!
Monday, July 16, 2012
Fantasy Football Thoughts ...
Everyone knows it's a "passing league." No point in arguing that. I was going to bore you with a long list of statistics showing the decrease in running and increase in passing, but is that really necessary? You've already heard the most important stat: 3 guys threw for 5,000 yards last year, and prior to 2009 that had only been done once, ever.
When I first started playing fantasy football, back in 2002, it was all about running backs. Grab two in the first two rounds, almost always. Now, it's completely different. This year more than ever before, it's about quarterbacks and receivers.
However, because of my history, I find it helpful to begin the long and tiresome fantasy-football-research-process by ranking the running backs and then deciding where to place the QBs and WRs later. So let's start with a top tier of running backs.
On most sites, you'll see the same trio of RBs ranked 1, 2 and 3 in some order - Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice. What I'm noticing about this year's crop of runners is a consistency of concerns that apply to pretty much everybody. There are three primary areas of worry:
1- Contract. Either a guy just got paid big and now becomes a risk that he'll either get hurt or play less motivated, or a guy wants to get paid and might hold out. As we saw with Chris Johnson last year, skipping training camp can be a good way to suck.
2- RBBC. It used to be just Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick who haunted us with the dreaded running-back-by-committee. Now it's pretty much every team. Whether it's third-down backs, goal-line backs, change-of-pace backs, or QBs who steal carries like Vick, Newton and Tebow, there are precious few running backs who stay on the field for all 3 downs and see 300 carries in a season (2 guys did that last year, 8 in 2002).
3- Injuries. Last year, an astounding number of elite running backs were hit by major injuries. Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, and on and on. Then there are guys who seem to get hurt every year like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. Who can you really trust to stay healthy? I'll tell you who. Quarterbacks.
There is one other category that applies to a few runners, in particular our top 3. That is:
4- Changes in offensive line. Foster lost his starting RT and RG, McCoy lost his All Pro LT for the year, and Rice lost a Pro Bowl guard.
So with those things in mind, let's break down the top 3 running backs, and others who belong in the 1st round:
Arian Foster. He'll go first in most drafts, but I have three major concerns. One is the losses of Eric Winston and Mike Brisiel from the offensive line. Second is the big payday he just got; will he still be motivated? And third is the presence of Ben Tate, a terrific talent looming in the wings. Houston has to give Tate at least 20-30% of the workload; he's too good to sit on the bench. All that said, I wouldn't hesitate to grab Foster early. He's awesome.
LeSean McCoy. I'm selling McCoy stock, and all other Eagles. The loss of Jason Peters is going to severely cripple their offense. Vick won't be able to stay healthy. Also, McCoy just signed for 5 years, $45 million, so will he stay motivated? I loved owning McCoy last year, but this year I wouldn't touch him inside the top 5. On the positive side, RBs in Andy Reid's offenses are usually good for 70+ passes. He'll dominate PPR leagues.
Ray Rice. Probably the safest RB in my mind, barring a holdout. Losing left guard Ben Grubbs is a blow, but Baltimore still has an elite O-line and still employs the best blocking fullback in football. A training camp holdout would drop his stock significantly, but I expect he'll be at training camp, even without a long term deal. If he is, he's the #1 RB to me; he IS the Ravens offense, he'll catch 70 passes, and he'll operate on the goal-line.
After those 3, the most common names are:
Maurice Jones-Drew. Last year's yardage leader is a very likely holdout candidate, and thus drops into the middle of the first round with an average draft position (ADP) of around 7. It doesn't look like he's getting a new deal anytime soon, so he might be a major risk. Also, everyone seems to be convinced that this is the year he'll break down physically.
Chris Johnson. Sonic the Hedgehog is becoming a very trendy 'sleeper' pick, flying up draft boards in the past few weeks. He is well-paid, happy, healthy, and still the fastest RB in the league. Also got Steve Hutchinson added to his line. Makes plenty of sense in the first round, despite the fact that he was abysmal last season.
This is where it gets tricky. After those five, you've got ...
Matt Forte. Coming off an MCL injury, potentially holding out, and has Michael Bush to vulture the TDs.
Darren McFadden. Coming off a foot injury, and with history of toe, knee and hamstring problems as well. Also, terrible team.
Ryan Matthews. Two years in the pros, two years of injuries. But now Tolbert is gone. Maybe he'll have a breakout year.
Marshawn Lynch. A lot of people love Lynch this year, but I am not one of them. He just got paid big money, and I fully expect him to turn into a sloth. Plus, Seattle sucks.
DeMarco Murray. ESPN ranks him as the #10 running back. I don't see why he isn't much higher; he is healthy, phenomenally talented, and too young to be whining about money. Also, he's on a great offense with a coach committed to running the ball. Comes with much less risk than the names above him.
After these 10, you're looking at familiar names like Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson ... guys you're just hoping will stay healthy through 5 or 6 weeks until their inevitable injuries. It's more important than ever to have 'handcuffs.' I'm assuming you know what that means. Also, you've got the "returning-from-major-injury" troop, which includes Adrian Peterson (going anywhere from 2nd round to 5th round), Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson ... guys who have performed at an elite fantasy level before, but now present a major risk.
Then, there are the RBBC phantoms ... the Carolina trio (Steward, Williams, Tolbert), the Saints' mess (Sproles, Ingram, Thomas), the always enigmatic Patriots and Redskins, and of course the Lions (Best and LeShoure).
But sneakily hiding in that mess are a few potential gems. Let's take a look:
-Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs is gone, Bradshaw is paid (which could be a bad thing, but maybe not), and he seems like a bargain in the 4th round.
-BenJarvus Green Ellis. His name is synonymous with RBBC, but he's moved on to Cincy where he has the backfield all to himself.
-Isaac Redman. With Mendenhall expected to miss at least the first 6 games, Redman has the job for a while. Steelers fans love him. He's sneaky good.
-Trent Richardson. He'll go much higher in keeper leagues. He's actually moving up about 1 round per week. Everybody seems to be forgetting how bad the Browns are. Still, he's a rare 3-down back who gets the red zone carries too.
There are lots of other intriguing options ...
-Beanie Wells, who now shares the backfield with Ryan Williams
-LeGarrette Blount, who shares with Doug Martin
-Reggie Bush, the PPR wonder
-Shonn Greene, the annual disappointment
-Willis McGahee, who might be worthless now that Peyton's there
-CJ Spiller, another PPR guy
-Ben Tate, best backup in the league
-Toby Gerhard, the Vikings RB until AP is ready
-James Starks, if the Packers ever run the ball
-Donald Brown, if the Colts don't suck
-David Wilson, Giants' rookie
-Daniel Thomas, Dolphins' power back
And of course, a myriad of sleepers, which consists mostly of useful handcuffs and speedy rookies and explosive third-down backs. My favorites:
-Taiwan Jones. Cool name, former sprinter, backs up the oft-injured McFadden.
-Isaiah Pead. Great out of backfield, speedy and downhill, the heir apparent to Steven Jackson.
-Jacquizz Rodgers. Super cool name, extremely fast, Falcons' third-down back.
-Peyton Hillis. Could actually see 10+ TDs on the revamped Chiefs.
-Rashard Mendenhall. Stash him and hope he comes back earlier than expected.
As always, stay away from Patriots and Redskins. Don't believe what you read about Roy Helu; it's not happening.
So to summarize, pretty much every running back comes with plenty of risk. If you're picking #1 overall, like I was last night in my first of what will be way too many leagues, take Aaron Rodgers. If you're picking #2 and Rodgers is gone, take Tom Brady. At 3, I'd probably go Rice, then Brees at 4. The fourth QB is a toss-up between Stafford, Newton, Romo, Eli, Peyton, Rivers ... so I'd wait a while after Brees. To round out my top 10, I'd go Foster at 5, Sonic at 6, Murray at 7, then MJD at 8, Forte at 9 and McCoy at 10. Don't pick Megatron in the 1st round unless you want to deal with the Curse.
More rankings to come later. Go Lions!
More rankings to come later. Go Lions!
Thursday, July 12, 2012
NFL Power Rankings: Top 12
To see teams 32 through 13, scroll down a little.
Here are the top 12 teams in my NFL Power Rankings.
-Ryan Fitzpatrick. Okay, I don’t actually love Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the dude is smart (went to Harvard), he understands defenses, and while he doesn’t have great physical ability, he usually doesn’t mess things up.
Despite losing Mario, the Texans have arguably the best overall defense in the league. With Brian Cushing anchoring the middle of the field, the pass rushers went ballistic, with Connor Barwin, J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed combining for 23 sacks last year. Now, with #26 pick OLB Whitney Mercilus joining the D, they’ll be even scarier. CB Jonathan Joseph is a stud shutdown corner as well.
Houston
Here are the top 12 teams in my NFL Power Rankings.
12. Dallas
That means, yes, Buffalo
Why I like Dallas
-DeMarcus Ware rates as my 5th best player in the NFL. He’s
good for 20 sacks.
- Tony Romo is the best quarterback in
the NFC East, at least according to Amani Toomer, who played with Eli for five
years.
-I’m unabashedly in love with DeMarco Murray, and have
been since I watched this Youtube clip last September. He is a clone of Adrian
Peterson and I’m still trying to figure out how he went in the third round.
-The secondary went from a weakness to a strength, with
the additions of Maurice Claiborne and Brandon Carr. They now have the best
tandem of CBs in the NFC.
Why I’m not completely sold on Dallas
-Every year, they are undisciplined and stupid. Drama is
the lifeblood of their organization and I don’t think that changes as long as
Jerry Jones runs the show. This type of weakness outweighs personnel
weaknesses. You can win with a bunch of average players who play their butts
off; you can’t win with undisciplined morons, no matter how talented they are.
-Miles Austin hasn’t been the same since getting his huge
contract, and Dez Bryant is a diva waiting to be born.
-Their schedule is very rough.
-The interior of the offensive line is unresolved.
-Romo is not clutch. You may have heard this before. I
think the overwhelming media attention he absorbs messes with his head.
11. Buffalo
My flier team for 2012. For more reasons that just the
signing of Mario Williams, though that was huge.
What I love about Buffalo
-Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Jackson
-Ryan Fitzpatrick. Okay, I don’t actually love Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the dude is smart (went to Harvard), he understands defenses, and while he doesn’t have great physical ability, he usually doesn’t mess things up.
-The defensive front 7 rivals San Fran and Pittsburgh
-The secondary is also above average, though very young.
Safety Jarius Byrd is a stud, and they
have a quartet of solid corners in Leodis McKelvin, Terrence McGee, Aaron
Williams, and Stephon Gilmore. Three of those guys are under 26. That could be
a great group for years to come.
-Most of all, I like Buffalo Green Bay
But sometimes, a team like San Fran or Baltimore contends
without an elite quarterback, and that happens if and only if you nail your
draft picks year after year. Examine Buffalo
2008 – Got McKelvin in the 1st round; found WR Steve
Johnson and OT Demetrius Bell in the 7th. That’s three starters.
2009 – Totally wasted the #11 pick on Aaron Maybin, but
still managed to grab 3 starters, two of whom are studs – center Eric Wood (pick
#28) and safety Jarius Byrd (pick #42). Also got a solid starting guard in Andy
Levitre (#51).
2010 – Okay, they got nothing out of this one, except
Spiller, who was a lousy pick at #9. Bad example. Moving on …
2011 – In the first three rounds, they landed three
defensive studs with Dareus, Aaron Williams and Sheppard. Three starters in three
picks.
2012 – Gilmore at pick #10, and guard Cordy Glenn at #41
(could have gone in the first round). Neither of
them have played yet, obviously, but I’m thinking both picks will work out well.
Even with a couple wasted first round picks, Buffalo
-One last thing I like about Buffalo Miami
Now, the weaknesses … first of all, it should be said that
the receivers stink. Steve Johnson is a nice possession guy (though he drops a
lot of passes), but they don’t have a big play, stretch-the-field player. That
hurts them.
The offensive line isn’t bad, but it certainly isn’t
overwhelming. It’s middle-of-the-road, much like Detroit
They are very young on defense, relying on lots of rookies
and second-year players. They’re also
hoping a few key players recover fully from nasty injuries, namely the
Williamses (Mario and Kyle).
Lastly, Ryan Fitzpatrick is limited physically, as I
mentioned, and won’t be able to carry the Bills on his back. He needs to be a
manager, and let Fred Jackson and the defense win games. I think that can
happen, but it’s a risky formula that doesn’t always work.
Overall, because of the silly-easy schedule, I think the
Bills go 10-6 and earn a Wildcard.
10. New Orleans
In the wake of “BountyGate,” I would like to propose that
we stop calling every single scandal “SomethingGate.” It's stupid, lazy, and totally overdone. I nominate calling it "Crushin for Concussions.” Or what creepo Gregg Williams called it: “Kill the Head! The Body will
Die!!”
About the Saints, I rank them this low because I’m
pretty nervous about Drew Brees’ potential holdout. It sounds like they aren’t
close to an agreement. Brees wants to be the highest paid QB in the league, and
the Saints are saying “Uh, bud, you’re 33.…”
The Saints have until July 16 to work out a deal,
otherwise Brees is stuck under the ‘franchise tag,’ which is bad for him (no
guaranteed money), and bad for them ($23.5 million due to him this year) So it appears a deal has to
get done soon; if it doesn’t, it’ll be awful for everybody.
But in the meantime, Brees is skipping practices and
conducting interviews to talk about his frustrations. He needs to be there;
he’s basically the team’s coach in the absence of suspended Sean Payton.
The Saints suffered a few blows this offseason, losing All Pro guard Carl Nicks and WR Robert Meachem. But they added Ben Grubbs from the Ravens to
replace Nicks and they still have Brees’s favorite weapons in Graham, Sproles
and Colston. Mark Ingram should take over as the primary ballcarrier in his
second season, but this will still be one of the most pass-heavy teams in the
NFL, so Ingram won't be used much.
*If you’re in a PPR league, make sure you draft Darren
Sproles. I did last year, brilliantly, and after a few awesome weeks I decided to trade while
his value was high. Idiot. I got Santonio Holmes for him, and was totally screwed by that trade.
Defensively, the Saints are under the microscope because
of “BountyFence.” It’s just assumed that they’ll suck defensively because of
it. But Gregg Williams was already gone, so his suspension is irrelevant. And
Jonathan Vilma was on the decline of his career before his suspension, and then he was replaced in free agency by Curtis Lofton, a
superior player anyway. (Read this well-written article for 9 reasons why Lofton makes the Saints D better than they were with Vilma). Also, the defense landed a pair of reliable starters in DT Brodrick Bunkley
(from Denver
But, I still have the Saints ranked 10th, behind the Lions
who they whipped twice last year, because they don’t have a head coach (or a play-caller), and they don’t have much of a pass rush or a
secondary. That, and of course the Drew
Brees holdout. If Brees doesn’t play,
they’ll go 0-16.
9. New York
Some Power Rankings have put the G-Men at #1 out of
respect for their Super Bowl. I’m not quite that stupid. They went 9-7 last
year, and only made the playoffs because Dallas
That being said, they exploded in the postseason, and annihilated
the Falcons, outplayed Green Bay in Lambeau, got a little bit lucky in San Fran
(two fumbled punts), and then upset New England thanks to the Pats’ horrendous
defense. Eli’s QB rating was 92.9 in the regular season and103.3 in the playoffs.
The most exciting thing going for the Giants in 2012 is undoubtedly Justin Pierre-Paul. The #15 pick in 2010 emerged from a relatively unknown backup
to arguably the best DE in the league in just four quick months. He didn’t even
start the first four games of 2011, but injuries to Tuck and Umenyiora plunged
him into the starting job, where he was completely and utterly dominant, amassing 17 sacks,
two forced fumbles, a safety, and a blocked field goal which came in the
closing seconds of a huge game. JPP was so under-the-radar that he wasn’t even on the Pro Bowl
ballot, but he ended up making the NFC roster anyway, then was voted a First Team All Pro. Oh, and he was the Giants’ best player during their
Super Bowl run. Pretty good for age
23. This guy is just going to get
better, and the rest of the league better be scared. If he stays healthy and
smart, he could eventually be of the best pass-rushers of all time.
Next to JPP are a couple of other well-established pass rushers in Justin Tuck and Osi. The rest of the
Giants D is nothing special, though Prince Amukamara is a sensible nominee for
a breakout season.
Offensively, they’ll continue to live and die by Eli’s
late-game heroics and uncanny knack for making big plays. Losing Mario
Manningham shouldn’t slow them down as Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are one of the best tandems of receivers in the NFL. Ahmad Bradshaw was re-signed
for 4 years, and rookie David Martin from Virginia Tech (the #32 pick) joins
him in the backfield.
The Giants face arguably the toughest schedule in the
league this year, with the NFC South, AFC North and a 1st place schedule that
pits them against Green Bay
8. Denver
I’m really excited about Peyton Manning. And Von Miller. I might actually be a closet Broncos fan. Not sure yet.
7. Detroit
Yeah that’s right. The seventh best team in the NFL resides in Michigan
Here are a few reasons why this is the best Lions’ team
ever: (I’m not counting the stupid 1950s
teams)
-Calvin Johnson. Third best player in the NFL. Totally
unstoppable. Twice as talented and ten times as smart as the average receiver.
-Matt Stafford. Best quarterback the Lions have had since
… …. …. … … well, ever. I was totally wrong about him. I still can't believe how good he was towards the end of the year.
-Suh and the D line. Corey Williams, Avril, KVB, Fairley,
Lo-Jack, Willie Young, Sammie Hill … that’s some serious depth. Eight guys who
can really play. Strangely, KVB might be the weakest link in that group.
-Explosive offense. I didn’t like the Titus Young or Ryan
Broyles picks, but they have afforded the Lions a dynamic arsenal of weapons.
Along with Burleson, Pettigrew, Scheffler, Best, LeShoure … it’s going to be
pretty difficult for defenses to double team Calvin.
-Chris Houston really stepped it up last year, and might
be even better this year. If he can play like a solid #1 CB, it’ll make him one
of the most important players on the team.
-Stephen Tulloch is a stud. He might not get the attention
he deserves, but the Lions took care of him financially and he’ll anchor the
middle of the field for years.
-Riley Reiff should replace Gosder at right tackle and
will be an immediate improvement.
-Ford Field became an intimidating place to play last
year. Jim Schwartz has the players and fans believing. They have a nastiness
and an arrogance that, while it can lead to stupid behavior, can also be pretty darn effective.
And of course, here are the reasons Detroit
-They continue to neglect the secondary. Bringing in warm
bodies isn’t enough; 3rd round rookies and Colts’ castoffs aren’t going to make
a difference. Until Schwartz and Lewand
make the pass defense a priority, we’ll continue to give up huge passing plays.
-Bad drafting in 2011. Fairley and LeShoure are both
potheads and morons. Titus Young has an anger problem. None of these guys were
very smart picks in the first place even before the character concerns arose.
-Veteran leadership. Somebody has to whip these
undisciplined idiots into shape. Stafford may
be the guy, but he’s a little young and a little too laid-back. Calvin doesn't have that fiery personality either. Suh could be the guy, but he's more of the problem than the solution. It could be KVB,
but he’s kind of a hooligan too. Nobody else on the roster really has any
credibility, except Jason Hanson. The butt-kicking could come from Schwartz or
Gunther Cunningham, but they’re just as hotheaded as the players who have taken
on their personalities.
-Backus, Raiola and Peterman remain pretty mediocre
mainstays on the O-line. Only Rob Sims really stands out at left guard, and
he’s not exactly an All Pro. Having Reiff at RT and grooming him to take over
Backus’s spot in 2013 will be a good start, but this is still a position of weakness for the time being. We can’t afford another injury to Stafford .
-Most of all, the infamous Madden Curse is looming. It’s
inevitable. Our best-case scenario is Calvin only missing 6 to 8 games.
Anything less than that would be a miracle. If we can go something like 3-4 in
the games he misses, we may be able to overcome the Curse. If he misses the
entire season, like I think he probably will, we’ll finish no better than 7-9.
Quickly recapping the offseason, the most important things
Detroit
We didn’t lose any starting players in the offseason
except CB Eric Wright, which is really a win for us. Bobby Carpenter was a nice
special teams player and good depth at OLB, but losing him is not detrimental. Replacing Drew
Stanton won’t be hard to do either. By far, the worst thing that happened this
offseason was Calvin Johnson winning the Madden vote.
One of my favorite football sites used to be
Walterfootball.com, but lately Walter has become a slacker and writes really
dumb, low-quality stuff. However, his analysis of the Lions is spot on, so I
will plagiarize it:
“The Lions have one of the most talented rosters
in the league. They now have to play up to that talent level. They must avoid
stupid penalties and mistakes that resulted in losses last year. They also have
to stop getting into legal trouble. If they can do all that, and if Calvin
Johnson can elude the dreaded Madden Curse, there's no telling how far this
team can go. “
Right on.
Of all the reasons to be optimistic this year, perhaps the
best reason is our super easy schedule.
Ten of our games are against teams ranked in the bottom
half of the league, and seven of the games are against teams in the bottom 10.
We open the season at home against St.
Louis Tennessee , who has no chance of slowing down our offense,
then home for Minnesota
Then it’s two straight road games – Chicago Seattle
After that, it’s two road games against two lousy teams. Blaine Gabbert and Jacksonville ,
and then to Minnesota
Assuming that’s a loss (probably safe to assume), we’ve
got to recover quickly for a tough Thanksgiving game against Houston Detroit
Last year, the wheels almost fell off the wagon during the
Lions short home stand. Remember, we were 5-0 (3-0 on the road) heading into two
games at home, and everyone assumed we’d be 7-0 or at least 6-1 after that. But
then came two crushing home losses to Atlanta
For whatever reason, the Lions lost focus last year on the
home stand. They can’t afford to repeat that mistake this year during weeks 12
and 13. We need to beat Houston
After the Indy contest, Detroit Green Bay Arizona Atlanta
So while we do
enjoy a very easy schedule, I think the Lions inexperience in big games and
lack of mental toughness is going to lead to us losing a couple games we should
win. Still, I have us finishing 11-5, a very good record, but probably 2
games lower than where we could finish if we play to our full potential.
Again, all this is based on health. If Calvin gets struck
down by the Curse, pencil us down for 7-9 or worse. If Stafford
goes down, Shaun Hill could do a decent job, but nothing will come easy.
Everybody else on the team is replaceable, except Chris Houston, because after
him we have no worthwhile cornerbacks. If Houston
gets hurt, Detroit
So that’s my prediction … 11-5 and a wildcard spot.
Moving on to the top 6 …
Moving on to the top 6 …
6. Houston
No team had more injury problems last year, and no team
lost more talent in the offseason. Not only did they lose Mario Williams, but
they said goodbye to two offensive lineman, most notably stud RT Eric Winston.
The Texans O-line drops from being one of the league’s best to just an above average unit. They still have an elite left tackle and center, and thus they’ll still
be formidable running the ball. But not quite as good.
Arian Foster got a big payday, which makes me think he'll regress,
but his backup (Ben Tate) may be just as talented as Foster. In fact, Tate is
probably a top 10 running back in the league once he gets his chance. He
ripped off a 5.4 YPC last year on 175 attempts. Wow. If Houston
The Texans’ season really rests on the health of Matt Schaub
and Andre Johnson, both of whom missed a lot of games last year. If they are
both healthy all year, Houston
Despite losing Mario, the Texans have arguably the best overall defense in the league. With Brian Cushing anchoring the middle of the field, the pass rushers went ballistic, with Connor Barwin, J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed combining for 23 sacks last year. Now, with #26 pick OLB Whitney Mercilus joining the D, they’ll be even scarier. CB Jonathan Joseph is a stud shutdown corner as well.
The main thing the Texans have going in their favor is the
departure of Peyton Manning from the AFC South. The starting quarterbacks in
their division are ages 24, 22 and 22, and have combined to throw only 16 TDs in
their careers. Luck and Locker are potentially going to be studs, but Houston
has a window to dominate the division right now, and they need to take advantage of that window before Andrew Luck becomes awesome.
5. San Francisco
I respect the heck out of them, but they are becoming my
least favorite team in the NFL for some reason. Adding Randy Moss didn’t help their cause. Amazing defense though.
4. Baltimore
Probably should rank them a few spots lower now that their best defensive player (Suggs) is going to miss the entire season, but something tells me they’ll be okay without
him.
3. Pittsburgh
My hatred for “Them Stellers” is slowly fading, but that
doesn’t mean I won’t cheer against them at any opportunity. But I think hatred
is the wrong word; it’s more of a tolerable disdain.
On the other hand, I really like the Pittsburgh Pirates.
They are my second favorite baseball team. Weird huh.
2. New England Patriots
I like what the Pats did in the offseason, bringing back
O-coordinator Josh McDaniels, signing WR Brandon Lloyd, TE Jake Ballard, and CB
Will Allen, and drafting OLB Chandler Jones and MLB Donta Hightower. They had
to make serious changes to the defense, and they did. Hightower was potentially
the best defensive player in the Draft, and will end up being a total steal at
pick 25.
Also, I think Brady is pissed about the Super Bowl.
1. Green Bay
I mean, they went 15-1 last year. Rodgers set the record
for best QB rating ever (122.5!!!!!!!!!). And I don’t care if they ranked 32nd in defense. That’s only
because they led every game by 20 points at half and teams just aired it out. With
Clay Matthews, B.J. Raji, Charles Woodson, Desmond Bishop, A.J. Hawk, Tramon
Williams, and now DT Anthony Hargrove (from the Saints) and rookies Nick Perry
and Jerel Worthy … that’s a darn good
defense. Darn stinking good. They may have ranked 32nd in yards allowed, but they are top 15 in
terms of talent.
The offense is just too stinking incredible. Only an
injury to Rodgers can keep them from trashing everybody they play. I mean, do you realize how good a 122.5 QB Rating is? All I can say is Discount Freaking Double Check.
So that’s it. Sorry
this took like two months. The funny
thing is, I ranked the teams a long time ago, and then by the time I finished
the writing, I’m not very happy with how the teams are ranked. Oh well. I’m excited
to get some fantasy football rankings up soon. And of course my weekly against-the-spread picks.
GO LIONS!!
And lastly, a few notes about a few things ….
-Steve Nash signed with the Lakers.
That would have been so cool 5 years ago. Oh snap!
-Ray Allen went to the Heat. Sell-out.
-Dwight Howard has replaced LeBron as the Biggest Jerk in the
NBA. Too bad. I always liked Dwight. Not anymore.
-Oh yeah, I forgot, the Heat won the Finals. Big stupid deal. The NBA is almost as
irrelevant to me right now as hockey.
The only thing keeping me engaged is fantasy basketball, which by the
way, I am awesome at.
This whole “LeBron is a Hero, he won a ring!” crap is
really stupid. All he did was join
forces with two stars. He didn’t do what Jordan
or Bird or Magic or Kobe Cleveland
As I wrote last July ... “The
Heat are gonna win the next 3 or 4 titles.
Wake me up in 2016.”
Or, as I wrote in my NBA Preview in December, “Heat over OKC in 6. Good for you LeBron, you a-hole.”
-Switching to baseball … Prince Fielder won the Home Run
Derby. Now he just needs to do it with
guys on base. 11 of his 15 homers are solo shots.
-The Tigers ended the first half of the season on a 5 game
winning streak. That was great. Let’s
hope they keep it rolling. But I have no
confidence in anything Jim Leyland does right now. He is making decisions
simply out of stubbornness and arrogance, not in the best interest of winning
games. He is honestly making it harder
for the team to win, by doing things like batting Raburn in the 2-hole,
watching him go 0 for 4, then doing it against the next day. The Raburn fetish has gone on way too long,
and I think it’s almost over as the Tigers will likely deal for a 2nd baseman
before the deadline. But who knows. I have no idea what to expect from the evil
wizard who abandoned reason for madness .
But I do think the White Sox are better than advertised,
and catching them won’t be easy. They have a much better starting rotation than
Detroit Chicago Avila Detroit Berry
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