Friday, January 18, 2013

Championship Round picks

2-2 against the spread last week, 1-3 straight up.  Dreadful.

Now 3-5 ATS in the playoffs and 4-4 straight up.  It's good to have parity and equality in the playoffs, but it's nearly impossible to pick this friggin games.

That said, I think I was on the right side by picking Denver and Seattle last week, and both got robbed in the last minute thanks to uncharacteristically bad pass defense.  Rahim Moore chose a terrible time to show off his Louis Delmas impression and desecrate the legacies of both Peyton Manning and John Elway.  If he makes that play with even a shred of competence, we have Brady v. Manning at ages 35 and 36, which is a freaking dream come true, as opposed to Brady v. Flacco, which doesn't even seem fair.

Ravens (12-6) @ Patriots (13-4) 
Predicted Line: NE by 9.5
Actual Line: NE by 10

Almost everyone is taking the Patriots at home (10 point favorites), despite the fact that Gronk won't play and despite the fact that the last two games between these teams were decided by 3 points or less.

But New England is rolling, and Baltimore has been overrated all year long.  I like the Pats to get up big early and then show off their running game, dominating time of possession and turning this into a blowout.   34-10.

49ers (12-4-1) @ Falcons (14-3)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 5 

I've watched 10 quarters of Colin Kaepernick, and I'm already ready to move him above Rivers, Romo and Cam as a top 10 quarterback.  I'm very close to moving him above RG3 and maybe Eli.  The dude is incredible.

But, I still have Matt Ryan ranked at 5, a few spots above Kaep, and the Falcons are a disrespected home underdog, which is a good betting proposition.  75% of the betting public is taking the Niners -5, but I'm going the other way.  Too many points.   Niners win, 30-27.

That's all I got for now.   Go Lions.   I guess they won't be taking Manti Te'o after all.  


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