Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Regular Season Wrap Up

Week 17:
9-7 ATS
8-8 straight up

Overall regular season:
125-123-11 (50.4%) ATS
157-98 (61.5%) straight up

Not great, but at least I ended up above .500.  Hopefully I can dominate the playoffs and get up to 51.5 by the Super Bowl.

Now let's look back to all those imaginary bets I made before the season began.   I missed many of them badly, missed a few by just a couple plays, and nailed a few other picks (the over on Indy and Minnesota, for example).  Here's the recap:

Arizona, under 7 wins
Correct, they went 5-11 after a 4-0 start
Bet $40, -150 Odds, $26.80 profit

Baltimore, under 10 wins
Push (meaning tie) 

Buffalo, over 8 wins
Incorrect, they were 6-10
Bet $50, lost $50

Chicago, under 9.5 wins
Incorrect, they barely eeked out 10-6 
Bet $60, lost $60

Cincinnati, under 8 wins
Incorrect, 10-6 somehow
Bet $70, lost $70

Dallas, over 8.5 wins
Incorrect, 8-8 
Bet $50, lost $50

Denver, over 9 wins
Correct, 13-3
Bet $50, -120 odds, $41.50 profit

Green Bay, over 12 wins
Incorrect, 11-5 
Bet $70, lost $70

Indy, over 5 wins
Correct, 11-5 
Bet $60, -125 odds, $48 profit

Jacksonville, under 5.5 wins
Correct, 2-14 
Bet $90, even odds, $90 profit

Miami, under 7 wins

Minnesota, over 5.5 wins
Correct, 10-6 
Bet $40, -125 odds, $32 profit

New England, over 12 wins

NY Jets, under 9 wins
Correct, 6-10.  Though Rex Ryan recently said it was the best 6-10 season ever played, and teams are already scared to play them next year.  
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit

Oakland, under 7 wins
Correct, 4-12.  Still baffled that this line was set at 7 wins.   
Bet $80, -130 odds, $61.60 profit

Pittsburgh, over 10 wins
Incorrect, 8-8.
Bet $50, lost $50

San Fran, under 10 wins
Incorrect, 11-4-1. 
Bet $70, lost $70

Seattle, under 7.5 wins
Incorrect, 11-5. 
Bet $100, lost $100

Tennessee, under 7.5 wins
Correct, 6-10
Bet $60, +120 odds, $72 profit

Washington, under 6.5 wins
Incorrect, 10-6
Bet $30, lost $30

8-9-3 record on picks 
Lost $106.10 

Now a review of the prop bets I made:

Hightower, Gilmore or Ingram to win D-ROY
Bet $90, going to lose $90

Rodgers +3 passing TDs more than Stafford
More like +19 passing TDs
Bet $75, -120 odds, $62.47 profit

Cutler +1 passing TDs more than Vick
19 compared to 12. Both guys sucked.
Bet $100, -115 odds, $86.90 profit

Luck +2.5 passing TDs more than Griffin
23 to 20.  Very close. But I win.
Bet $100, -105 odds, $95.20 profit

Lions team, under 18.5 interceptions
How about a measly 11?
Bet $50, -110 odds, $45.45 profit

Colts and Steelers win their divisions
Bet $75, lost $75
(But if Colts had won, which they almost did, I would have profited $425)

Broncos win division
Bet $50, +155 odds, $77.50 profit

Brady or Romo wins passing yards title
Bet $40, lost $40
Brees won for a 2nd straight year.

Marshall, most receiving yards
Bet $25, lost $25
The curse-breaking Megatron won. But Marshall was 3rd.

Tebow, over 4.5 rushing TDs
Bet $50, lost $50
I'm not even sure he had 4.5 rushing attempts.

Cowboys or Bills make Super Bowl
Bet $45, lost $45

Total on prop bets: 
Gained $42.50 

Total with props and over/unders: 
Lost $63.58 

With two yet to be determined:

Andrew Luck, Offensive Rookie of the Year
Going to be really close
Bet $50, potential profit $75

Patriots make Super Bowl
TBD, but I don't hate my chances.
Bet $75, potential profit $112.50

If Luck wins ROY and Pats make Super Bowl, I am up $123.92

If neither happens, I am down $188.58

If Luck wins ROY and Pats don't make Super Bowl (most likely scenario), I am down $113.58


So overall, not great.  Oh well.  Here are the Wildcard round picks:

Bengals (10-6) @ Texans (12-4)
Predicted Line: HOU by 4.5
Actual Line: HOU by 4.5

Vikings (10-6) @ Packers (11-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 7

Actual Line: GB by 9

Colts (11-5) @ Ravens (10-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 6

Actual Line: BAL by 6.5

Seahawks (11-5) @ Redskins (10-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5

Actual Line: SEA by 3

What a freaking phenomenal slate of games.  Three rookie QBs, two undertalented overachievers (Colts and Bengals), and one Adrian Peterson.  Should be a great round of games.  I'll keep these picks brief:

I like Houston big; they have way more talent on both sides.  34-13.

Packers will win, but it'll be closer than 9.  Can't bet against AP right now.  27-23.

Balitmore has been overrated all year, but they get lucky (no pun intended) with their first round game.  Indy is the least talented roster in the playoffs by far.  Luck keeps it close though.  Ravens 30-26.

RG3 pulls off the shocker!  Seattle's defense is great, but Griffin's legs make the difference.  Skins 24-21 in a nail-biter.  

I'm going to hold off on NFL draft thoughts for a while.  Still 4 months to go, and somebody always comes out of no where at the combine.   I still like the Lions to get either Te'o or Milliner at pick #5, though a lot of people think they'll take a pass-rusher, which makes sense considering Avril and KVB are likely gone.  Still, the back 7 needs to be addressed.

Three months til Tigers season!   Stay tuned for my Tigers preview ....

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